Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

Collapse is a frightening subject. The question of why collapse occurs is something I have pieced together over many years of study from a number of different sources, which I will attempt to explain in this post.

Collapse doesn’t happen instantaneously; it happens many years after an economy first begins outgrowing its resource base. In fact, the resource base likely declines at the same time from multiple causes, such as soil erosion, deforestation and oil depletion. Before collapse occurs, there seem to be warning signs, including:

  • Too much wage disparity
  • Riots and protests by people unhappy with low wages
  • Prices of commodities that are too low for producers that need to recover their costs of production and governments that require tax revenue to fund programs for their citizens
  • An overstretched financial system; conditions ripe for debt defaults
  • Susceptibility to epidemics

Many people have the misimpression that our most important problem will be “running out” of oil. Because of this, they believe that oil prices will rise high if the system is reaching its limits. Since oil prices are not very high, they assume that the problem is far away. Once a person understands what the real issue is, it is (unfortunately) relatively easy to see that the current economy seems to be quite close to collapse.

In this post, I provide images from a recent presentation I gave, together with some comments. A video of the presentation is available on the Uncomfortable Knowledge Hub, here. A PDF of the presentation can be downloaded here:

Slide 1
Slide 2
Slide 3
Slide 4

In some ways, a self-organizing system is analogous to a dome that might be built with a child’s toy building set (Slide 4). New layers of businesses and consumers are always being added, as are new regulations, more or less on top of the prior structure. At the same time, old consumers are dying off and products that are no longer needed are being discontinued. This happens without central direction from anyone. Entrepreneurs see the need for new products and try to satisfy them. Consumers decide on what to buy, based upon what their spendable income is and what their needs are.

Slide 5

Resources of many kinds are needed for an economy. Harnessing energy of many types is especially important. Early economies burned biomass and used the labor of animals. In recent years, we have added other types of energy, such as fossil fuels and electricity, to supplement our own human energy. Without supplemental energy of various kinds, we would be very limited in the kinds of goods and services that could be produced. Our farming would be limited to digging in the ground with a stick, for example.

The fact that there is almost an equivalence between employees and consumers is very important. If the wages of consumers are high, relative to the prices of the goods and services available, then consumers are able to buy many of those goods and services. As a result, citizens tend to be happy. But if there are too many low paid workers, or people without work at all, consumers are likely to be unhappy because they cannot afford the basic necessities of life.

Slide 6

The problem civilizations are facing is a two-sided problem: (1) Growing population and (2) Resources that often degrade or deplete. As a result, the amount of resources per person falls. If this were carried to the limit, all of us would starve.

Slide 7

As resources deplete and population grows, local leaders can see that problems are on the horizon. At first, adding technology, such as a new dam to provide water to make farms more productive, helps. As more and more technology and other complexity is added, there is less and less “bang for the buck.” We can easily see this in the healthcare field. Early antibiotics had a very big payback; recent medical innovations that help a group of 500 or 1000 people with a particular rare disease can be expected to have a much smaller payback.

A second issue with added complexity is that it increasingly leads to a society of the very wealthy plus many very low paid workers. Joseph Tainter identified the combination of these two issues as leading to collapse in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies.

Slide 8

Françios Roddier is an astrophysicist who writes primarily in French. His book Thermodynamique de l’évolution was published in 2012; it is now available in English as well.

The issue of starving people in Yemen is an issue today. In fact, hunger is an increasing problem in poor countries around the world. The world tourism industry is dead; the industry of making fancy clothing for people in rich countries is greatly reduced. People who formerly made a living in these industries in poor countries increasingly find it difficult to earn an adequate living with other available jobs. Rich countries tend to have better safety nets when there are widespread reductions in job-availability.

Slide 9

Businesses often make long lasting goods such as machines to be used in factories or automobiles to be used by consumers. Governments often make long-lasting goods such as paved roads and school buildings. When making these goods, they take some combination of commodities, built machinery, and human labor to make goods and services that people will use for many years into the future. The future value of these goods is hoped to be significantly greater than the value of the inputs used to create these goods and services.

There are at least three reasons that time-shifting devices are needed:

  1. Workers need to be paid as these goods are made.
  2. Businesses need to build factories in advance.
  3. Businesses, governments and individuals are all likely to find the future payments more manageable, even with interest added, than they are as a single payment upfront.

I don’t mention the issue in Slide 9, but once time-shifting devices are created, they become very easy to manipulate. For example, no one knows precisely what the future value of a particular investment will be. Governments, especially, are prone to make investments in unneeded infrastructure, simply to provide jobs for people. We also know that there are diminishing returns to added technology, but stocks of technology companies tend to be valued as if complexity will save the world. Third, interest rate manipulations (lower!) and the offering of debt to those who seem unlikely to be able ever to repay the debt can be used to make the economy of a country appear to be in better shape than it really is. Many of us remember the collapse of the US subprime housing debt bubble in 2008.

Slide 10

The purpose of a financial system is to allocate goods and services. High wages allocate a larger share of the output of an economy to a particular person than low wages. Appreciation in asset values (such as prices of shares of stock, or value of a home or piece of land) also act to increase the share of the goods and services produced by the economy to an individual. Payment of interest, dividends and rents are other ways of allocating goods and services that the economy makes. Governments can print money, but they cannot print goods and services!

As the economy gets more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services. For one thing (not mentioned on Slide 10), as the economy becomes more complex, an increasing share of the goods and services produced by the economy need to go into making all of the intermediate goods that make that industrial economy work. Intermediate goods would include factories, semi-trucks, hydroelectric dams, oil pipelines and other goods and services that don’t directly benefit an individual consumer. They are needed to make the overall system work.

As the economy gets bigger and more complex, the non-elite workers increasingly find themselves left out. Besides losing an increasing part of the output of the intermediate goods and services mentioned in the prior paragraph, there are other pieces that take slices of the total output of goods and services:

  • High paid workers take their quite-large slices of the total output. These individuals tend to be the ones who get the benefit of asset appreciation, as well.
  • Pension programs and other programs to help the elderly and unemployed take a cut.
  • Health insurance costs, in the US at least, tend to be very high, relative to wages, for lower-paid workers.
  • The work of some employees can be replaced by low-paid overseas employees or by robots. If they are to keep their jobs, their wages need to be suitably low to compete.

With all of these issues, the workers at the bottom of the employment hierarchy increasingly get left out of the distribution of goods and services made by the economy.

Slide 11

We know some of the kinds of things that happen when economies are close to collapse from the writings of researchers such as Peter Turchin, lead author of Secular Cycles, and Joseph Tainter, mentioned earlier. One approach is for governments to try to work around the resource problem by starting wars with other economies whose resources they might gain. Probably a more likely outcome is that these low-resource-per-capita economies become vulnerable to attack by other economies because of their weakened condition. In any event, more conflict is likely as resource limits hit.

If the low incomes of non-elite workers persist, many bad outcomes can be expected. Local riots can be expected as citizens protest their low wages or pensions. Governments are likely to find that they cannot collect enough taxes. Governments will also find that they must cut back on programs, or (in today’s world) their currencies will sink relative to currencies of other countries. Intergovernmental organizations may fail for lack of funding, or governments may be overthrown by unhappy citizens.

Debt defaults can be expected. Governments have a long history of defaulting on their debts when conditions were bad according to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff in This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.

It becomes very easy for epidemics to take hold because of the poor eating habits and the close living quarters of non-elite workers.

With respect to inflation-adjusted commodity prices, it is logical that they would stay low because a large share of the population would be impoverished and thus not able to afford very many of these commodities. A person would expect gluts of commodities, as occurred during the Great Depression in the 1930s in the United States because many farmers and farm-hands had been displaced by modern farming equipment. We also find that the book of Revelation from the Bible seems to indicate that low prices and lack of demand were problems at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon (Revelation 18:11-13).

Slide 12

Much of what peak oil theory misunderstands is what our society as a whole misunderstands. Most people seem to believe that our economy will grow endlessly unless we somehow act to slow it down or stop it. They cannot imagine that the economy comes with built-in brakes, provided by the laws of physics.

Armed with a belief in endless growth, economists assume that the economy can expand year after year at close to the same rate. Modelers of all kinds, including climate modelers, miss the natural feedback loops that lead to the end of fossil fuel extraction without any attempt on our part to stop its extraction. A major part of the problem is that added complexity leads to too much wage and wealth disparity. Eventually, the low wages of many of the workers filter through to oil and other energy prices, making prices too low for producers.

Collapse isn’t instantaneous, as we will see on Slide 26. As resources per capita fall too low, there are several ways to keep problems hidden. More debt at lower interest rates can be added. New financial techniques can be developed to hide problems. Increased globalization can be used. Corners can be cut on electricity transmission, installation and maintenance, and in the building of new electricity generating structures. It is only when the economy hits a bump in the road (such as a climate-related event) that there suddenly is a major problem: Electricity production fails, or not enough food is produced. In fact, California, Florida, and China have all encountered the need for rolling blackouts with respect to electricity in the past year; China is now encountering difficulty with inadequate food supply, as well.

Economists have played a major role in hiding problems with energy with their models that seem to show that prices can be expected to rise if there is a shortage of oil or other energy. Their models miss the point that adequate supplemental energy is just as important for demand as it is for supply of finished goods and services. The reason energy is important for demand is because demand depends on the wages of workers, and the wages of workers in turn depend on the productivity of those workers. The use of energy supplies to allow workers to operate tools of many kinds (such as computers, trucks, electric lights, ovens, and agricultural equipment) greatly influences the productivity of those workers.

A person who believes energy prices can rise endlessly is likely to believe that recycling can increase without limit because of ever-rising prices. Such a person is also likely to believe that the substitution of intermittent renewables for fossil fuels will work because high prices for scarce electricity will enable an approach that is inherently high-cost, if any continuity of supply is required.

Thus, the confusion isn’t so much that of peak oilers. Instead, the confusion is that of economists and scientists building models based on past history. These models miss the turning points that occur as limits approach. They assume that future patterns will replicate past patterns, but this is not what happens in a finite world. If we lived in a world without limits, their models would be correct. This confusion is very much built into today’s thinking.

In fact, we are living in an economic system/ecosystem that has brakes to it. These brakes are being applied now, even though 99%+ of the population isn’t aware of the problem. The system will protect itself, quite possibly using the approach of evicting most humans.

Slide 13

The opinions expressed in Slide 13 reflect some of the views I have heard expressed speaking with peak oilers and with people looking into issues from a biophysical economics perspective. Obviously, views differ from person to person.

Many people believe that resources in the ground provide a good estimate of the quantity of fossil fuels that can be extracted in the future. Peak oilers tend to believe that the available resources will need to have sufficiently high “Energy Returned on Energy Invested” (EROEI) ratios to make extraction feasible. Politicians and climate modelers tend to believe that prices can rise endlessly, so low EROEI is no obstacle. They seem to believe that anything that we have the technical skill to extract, even coal under the North Sea, can be extracted.

If a person believes the high estimates of fossil fuel resources that seem to be available and misses the point that the economy has built-in brakes, climate change becomes the issue of major concern.

My view is that most of the resources that seem to be available will be left in the ground because of low prices and problems associated with collapse, such as failing governments and broken supply lines. In any event, we do not really have the ability to fix the climate; the laws of physics will provide their own adjustment. We will simply need to live with whatever climate is provided. Humans lived through ice-ages in the past. Presumably, whatever humans remain after what seems to be an upcoming bottleneck will be able to live in suitable areas of the world in the future.

Slide 14

On Slide 14, note that today’s industrial economy must necessarily come to an end, just as the lives of hurricanes and of people come to an end.

Also note that with diminishing returns, the cost of producing many of the things listed on Slide 14 is rising. For example, with rising population, dry areas of the world eventually need to use desalination to get enough fresh water for their growing populations. Desalination is expensive. Even if the necessary workaround is simply deeper wells, this still adds costs.

With diminishing returns affecting many parts of the economy simultaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for efforts in the direction of efficiency to lead to costs that are truly lower on an inflation-adjusted basis. Advanced education and health care in particular tend to have an ever-rising inflation-adjusted costs of production. Some minerals do as well, as the quality of ores depletes.

Slide 15

An important issue to note is that wages need to cover all the rising costs, even the rising cost of health care. The paychecks of many people, especially those without advanced education, fall too low to meet all of their needs.

Slide 16

Slides 16 and 17 describe some of the reasons why oil prices don’t necessarily rise with scarcity.

Slide 17
Slide 18

I was one of the co-authors of the Ke Wang paper mentioned in Slide 18. We developed three different forecasts of how much oil would be extracted in China, depending on how high oil prices would be able to rise. The Red Line is the “Stays Low” Scenario, with prices close to $50 per barrel. The Yellow Line is the “Ever-Rising Prices” Scenario. The Best Estimate reflects the expectation that prices would be in roughly the $100 to $120 barrel range, from 2015 onward.

Slide 19

In fact, oil prices have stayed fairly low, and China’s oil production has declined, as our paper predicted.

Slide 20
Slide 21

Note that the chart on Slide 21 shows wage disparity only in the US. On this basis, the share of wages going to the top 1% and top 0.1% are back at the levels that they were in the 1920s. Now, our economy is much more global. If we consider all of the low income people in the world, the worldwide wage disparity is much greater.

Slide 22

There are two things to note on Slide 22. The first is that producers, in inflation-adjusted terms, seem to need very high prices, approximately $120 per barrel or more. This is based on a presentation made by Steve Kopits, which I wrote up here: Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.

The other thing to note is that oil prices tend to bounce around a great deal. Prices seem to depend on the amount of debt and on interest rates, as well as the wages of workers. The peak in oil prices in mid-2008 came precisely at the time the debt bubble broke with respect to mortgage and credit card debt in the US. I wrote about this in an article in the journal Energy called, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis.

The US instituted Quantitative Easing (QE) at the end of 2008. QE acted to lower interest rates. With the help of QE, the price of oil gradually rose again. When the US discontinued QE in late 2014, oil prices fell. Recently, there has been a great deal of QE done, as well as direct spending by governments, but oil prices are still far below the $120 per barrel level. Middle Eastern oil producers especially need high oil prices, in order to collect the high tax revenue that they depend upon to provide programs for their citizens.

Slide 23

Coal prices (Slide 23) tend to follow somewhat the same pattern as oil prices (Slide 22). There is very much the same balancing act with coal prices as well: Coal prices need to be high enough for producers, but not too high for customers to buy products made with coal, such as electricity and steel.

China tries to keep its coal prices relatively high in order to encourage production within the country. China has been limiting imports to try to keep prices high. The relatively high coal prices of China make it an attractive destination for coal exporters. There are now a large number of boats waiting outside China hoping to sell coal to China at an attractive price.

Slide 24

The blue line on Figure 24 represents total energy consumption up through 2020. The red dotted line is a rough guesstimate of how energy consumption might fall. This decline could happen if people wanting energy consumption coming only from renewables were able to succeed by 2050 (except I am doubtful that these renewable energy types would really be of much use by themselves).

Alternatively, this might also be the decline that our self-organizing economy takes us on. We are already seeing a decrease in energy consumption related to the current pandemic. I think governmental reactions to the pandemic were prompted, in part, by the very stretched condition of our oil and other energy supplies. Countries were experiencing riots over low wages. They also could not afford to import as much oil as they were importing. Shutdowns in response to COVID-19 cases seemed like a sensible thing to do. They helped restore order and saved on energy imports. Strangely enough, the pandemic may be a part of the collapse that our self-organizing economy is arranging for us.

Slide 25

Slide 25 takes the blue line from Slide 24 and looks at what happened in more detail. On Slide 25, we are looking at the average annual increase in energy consumption, for a given 10 year period. This is split between the rate of population growth (blue), and the energy consumption growth that went into other things, which I equate to change in “standard of living” (red). The big red humps represent very good times, economically. The post-World War II bump is especially high. The valleys are times of disturbing changes, including wars and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Of course, all of these situations occurred during periods when energy consumption was generally rising. If these unfortunate things happened when oil consumption was rising, what might possibly happen when energy consumption is falling?

Slide 26

We now seem to be hitting the Crisis Stage. In the past, collapse (which takes place in the Crisis Stage) has not been instantaneous; it has taken place over quite a number of years, typically 20 or more. The world economy is quite different now, with its international trade system and heavy use of debt. It would seem likely that a collapse could happen more quickly. A common characteristic of collapses, such as avalanches, is that they often seem to start off fairly slowly. Then, suddenly, a large piece breaks away, and there is a big collapse. Something analogous to this could possibly happen with the economy, too.

Slide 27

One of the major issues with adding intermittent renewables to the electric grid is a pricing problem. Once wind and solar are given subsidies (even the subsidy of “going first”), all of the other types of electricity production seem to need subsidies, as well. It is the pricing systems that are terribly detrimental, although this is not generally noticed. In fact, researchers who are looking only at energy may not even care if the pricing is wrong. Ultimately, the low pricing for electricity can be expected to bring the electric grid down, just as inadequate prices for fossil fuels can be expected to lead to the closure of many fossil fuel producers. Both Texas and California are having difficulty because they have not been collecting enough funds from customers to build resilient systems.

Slide 28
Slide 29

The focus of EROEI research is often with respect to whether the EROEI of a particular type of energy production is “high enough,” relative to some goal, such as 3:1 or 10:1. I believe that there needs to be more focus on the total quantity of net energy produced. If there is an EROEI goal for highly complex energy types, it needs to be much higher than for less complex energy types.

Slide 30

Today, it is common to see the EROEIs of a number of different types of energy displayed side-by-side as if they were comparable. This type of comparison is also made with other energy metrics, such as “Levelized Cost of Electricity” and “Energy Payback Period.” I think this approach makes highly complex types of energy production, such as intermittent wind and solar, look better than they really are. Even intermittent hydroelectric power generation, such as is encountered in places with rainy seasons and dry seasons and in places that are subject to frequent droughts, is not really comparable to electricity supply that can be provided year-around by fossil fuel providers, if adequate storage is available.

Slide 31

Earlier in this post, I documented a number of reasons why we should expect low rather than high energy prices in the future. I am reiterating the point here because it is a point energy researchers need especially to be aware of. Production is likely to come to an end because it is unprofitable.

Slide 32

One characteristic of human-made complexity is that it has very little redundancy. If something goes wrong in one part of one system, it is likely to ripple through that system, as well as other systems to which the first system is connected. An outage of oil is likely to indirectly affect electricity because oil is needed to fix problems with electricity transmission lines. An electricity outage may cause disruption in oil drilling and refining, and even in filling up automobiles at service stations. An international trade disruption can break supply lines and leave shipping containers at the wrong end of the globe.

We know that collapse tends to lead to less complex systems. We should expect fewer jobs requiring advanced education. We should expect to start losing battles against infectious diseases. We should expect a reduction in international trade; in the future, it may primarily take place among a few trusted partners. Some intergovernmental organizations are likely to disappear. Peak oil cannot happen by itself; it can only happen with disruptions and shrinkage in many other parts of the economy, as well.

Slide 33

The climate is indeed changing. Unfortunately, we humans have little ability to change what is happening, especially at this late date. Arguably, some changes could have been made much earlier, for example in the 1970s when the modeling included in the 1972 book The Limits to Growth by Donnela Meadows and others showed that the world economy was likely to hit limits before 2050.

It is clear to many people that the world economy is now struggling. There is too much debt; young people are having trouble finding jobs that pay well enough; people in poor countries are increasingly more food insecure. Leaders everywhere would like solutions. The “easy” solution to offer is that intermittent wind and solar will solve all our problems, including climate change. The closer a person looks at the situation, the more the solution seems like nonsense. Wind and solar work passably well at small concentrations within electric systems, if it is possible to work around their pricing problems. But they don’t scale up well. Energy researchers especially should be aware of these difficulties.

The book Rare Earth: Why Complex Life Is Uncommon in the Universe by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee points out that there have been an amazing number of what seem to be coincidences that have allowed life on Earth to flourish for four billion years. Perhaps these coincidences will continue. Perhaps there is an underlying plan that we are not aware of.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,333 Responses to Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away

  1. Mirror on the wall says:

    A new Savanta ComRes poll for an ITV show tonight on the end of the UK.

    > Poll shows highest support for Welsh independence ever recorded

    An ITV poll has shown the highest support for independence ever recorded with 39% of Welsh people saying they would now vote ‘yes’ in a referendum.

    The poll in collaboration with Savanta ComRes is for a special programme UK: The End of the Union? which will air tonight, 4 March at 7:30pm.

    Excluding don’t know answers, 39% said they would vote ‘Yes’ if a referendum was held tomorrow. This outstrips the previous high of 32% in a YouGov poll in August 2020.

    The poll also showed that if an EU referendum was called tomorrow, a majority of Welsh citizens would vote to rejoin.

    The poll was also the 23rd to indicate majority support for independence in Scotland.

    Excluding don’t know answers, a majority of 53% of Scottish citizens would vote to leave the UK if an independence referendum was called tomorrow. 47% would vote to stay in the UK.

    https://nation.cymru/news/poll-shows-highest-support-for-welsh-independence-ever-recorded/

  2. Pingback: When Does This Travesty of a Mockery of a Sham Finally Implode? – Charles Hugh Smith – Kolozeg.Org

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    See what happens if the Elders allow uncontrolled collapse…. this is just the warmup:

    https://youtu.be/v92Fwa3ZBEQ

    • JMS says:

      I find it hilarious that the mutineers use the symbol of their oppression (and their illogicity) over their mouths.
      Because of this type of behavior it’s rumored that the next Darwin Award will honour the Sarcovidiots. I hope the rumor is true, since it would be only fair, a most deserved prize!

    • Look forward to it

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I must admit … I will be seriously disappointed if the species just lays down, has a mass spasm and goes extinct after accepting the Lethal Injection.

        Ok 8B people ripping faces off (eating each other… raping etc…) might be a bit much…. and none of that would be uploaded to YT anyway so what’s the point…

        However in the run up to the End Game… I’d enjoy more… violence… this is exciting stuff..

        Only wish I could be there… surging adrenaline is … INTOXICATING!!! I’ve been in the way of plenty of tear gas, petrol bombs and rubber bullets… and charging riot police… but never in the vicinity of live rounds… that has got to be right up there with a massive hit of crack cocaine.

        Please suh… can we have some moh…. please televise the end of civilization!!!!

        I need to come clean … humans are devils… and karma needs to be asserted before this is over.

        https://youtu.be/v92Fwa3ZBEQ

  4. Vaccine Passports, Covid’s Next Political Flash Point

    A world divided between the vaccinated and unvaccinated promises relief for economies and families, but the ethical and practical risks are high.

    The next major flash point over coronavirus response has already provoked cries of tyranny and discrimination in Britain, protests in Denmark, digital disinformation in the United States and geopolitical skirmishing within the European Union.

    The subject of debate: vaccine passports — government-issued cards or smartphone badges stating that the bearer has been inoculated against the coronavirus.

    The idea is to allow families to reunite, economies to restart and hundreds of millions of people who have received a shot to return to a degree of normalcy, all without spreading the virus. Some versions of the documentation might permit bearers to travel internationally. Others would allow entry to vaccinated-only spaces like gyms, concert venues and restaurants.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/02/world/europe/passports-covid-vaccine.html

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Duncan… you probably don’t want to read this:

    Interview with Dr. Vanessa Schmidt-Kruger

    *VSK: I’m a cell biologist and my specialist field is the functional characterisation and elucidation of proteins, i.e., I understand how proteins are produced, how they are transported in the cell, how they are taken up by cells, how they are metabolised, how intra- and intercellular communication takes place, including within tissue, and how organs interact.

    This is all very important if one wishes to conduct a risk assessment: how the vaccine functions for example, and the dangers/risks of the lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). This technology is not really new: it’s novel as a vaccine, but we have been using these LNPs in research for over 20 years, and we have always been struggling with the problem of toxicity of the lipids and balancing this against their efficacy.

    I would like to explain a little using the example of the BioNTech (BioNTech) vaccine, focusing on a number of specific points. I’ve made a few notes.

    We know that normally vaccine development takes a very long time. It’s not just the clinical phase: with this vaccine, it’s set at three times two and a half years, i.e., three phases of 2.5 years each plus the evaluation phase, which makes 7 ½ years in total.

    And then one shouldn’t forget that the production optimisation is also important, at least a year would surely be needed for that. That hasn’t taken place at all. The vaccine is already being sold and used, but the production optimisation isn’t yet by any means completed.

    And there are considerable deficiencies.

    http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/gcep_dr_vanessa_schmidt_krueger/

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/01/27/does-lockdown-work-or-not/

  6. Empty Office Buildings Squeeze City Budgets as Property Values Fall

    WASHINGTON — At a meeting with Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen last month, Jeff Williams, the mayor of Arlington, Texas, laid out his grim economic predicament: Heavy spending on coronavirus testing and vaccine distribution had dwarfed dwindling tax revenue, forcing the city to consider painful cuts to services and jobs. While sluggish sales and tourism were partly to blame, the big worry, Mr. Williams said, is the empty buildings.

    Those dormant offices, malls and restaurants that have turned cities around the country into ghost towns foreshadow a fiscal time bomb for municipal budgets, which are heavily reliant on property taxes and are facing real estate revenue losses of as much as 10 percent in 2021, according to government finance officials.
    https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/03/business/pandemic-city-budgets.html?smid=tw-share

    • I can see this revenue shortfall happening in many parts of the country. I suppose the revenue shortfall could end up pushing down school spending.

      On the other hand, at least so far, home values have been rising. In theory, this could lead to higher taxes on homeowners and partly offset the loss of tax revenue.

      • theblondbeast says:

        I was predicting this, too. But it seems at least in the U.S. the stimulus bill includes more money than (at least currently realized) tax revenue losses for states and local municipalities. I’m already seeing CARES act funding trickle through regional school districts and turn into construction projects. Many of these are doing things such as adding ventilation to old schools which only have steam and operable windows out of fear of COVID. It appears opening the windows isn’t good enough for some people.

        It seems to me now that unless continued tax shortfalls eat up this funding, we’ll see public spending boondoggles lead to commodity inflation. Steel and copper pipes, lumber and other building materials are all seeing this.

        My actual prediction is we’ll see both. States and big cities will rush to spend the stimulus funds, hoping to repair their local economies. Yet they won’t see the recovery of tourism and restaurant (entertainment and alcohol taxes) spending they expect. They will find themselves in the same or worse situation in the next tax year.

  7. Triple-bombshell on #Wuhan: #Fauci, #WHO and #CCP involved in heavy #Coronavirus lab activity just prior to “pandemic”
    https://silview.media/2021/03/03/triple-bombshell-on-wuhan-fauci-who-and-ccp-involved-in-heavy-coronavirus-lab-activity-just-prior-to-pandemic/

    • This is a very long document that includes quite a few allegations I have heard before, plus a few new ones. It says it has 301 pages of emails and other records ”

      showing that National Institutes of Health (NIH) officials tailored confidentiality forms to China’s terms and that the World Health Organization (WHO) conducted an unreleased, “strictly confidential” COVID-19 epidemiological analysis in January 2020.

      Somewhere in the middle of this, the document talks about Hunter Biden “CEFC China [Energy] paid Hunter Biden $6 million from August 2017, including $1 million to represent Ho.”

      I wish main street media would start coming out with some things with respect to what has been going on with respect to the lab leak of the virus. Also Fauchi and Daszak’s role in the whole affair. But this seems unlikely, especially with the connection with Hunter Biden and the politicization of the whole event.

      • Nehemiah says:

        The CCP has vast numbers of foreigners in journalism, business, academia, and politics either receiving financial benefits or blackmailable. The CCP is like a global mafia. Their tentacles cover the globe, including the ability to carry out executions even in western countries without drawing unwelcome media attention, that that wealthy Chinese expat/refugee who was killed in France but few people ever heard about.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      Hint:

      “Michel Chossudovsky (born 1946) is a Canadian economist, author and conspiracy theorist. He is professor emeritus of economics at the University of Ottawa] and the president and director of the Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG), which runs the website globalresearch.ca and publishes conspiracy theories.”

      But exciting fiction, for sure!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Did they strap you down when they injected you with the experimental ‘vaccine’?

        Or did you accept it willingly?

        https://www.thenation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Alabama-lethal-injection-ap-img.jpg

      • Minority Of One says:

        I see that you have got your quote from your usual source, Wikipedia, that outstandingly good source of unbiased and reliable info, not.

        Michel Chossudovsky
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michel_Chossudovsky

        >>and conspiracy theorist.

        I consider this label a badge of honour. If Wikipedia, or any other representatives of the TPTB, and this includes useful idiots, labels someone a conspiracy theorist, you know they are on to something that TPTB don’t want the general public to know about. I am the conspiracy theorist within our family and they sure don’t want to hear about the alternative reality.

        Do you work for the CIA, or similar?

    • This seems to be related to another article we saw earlier:

      According to Dr. Classen, the results indicate that the RNA-based vaccine has specific sequences that may induce pathologic prion conformations.

      Furthermore, the spike protein, created by the translation of the vaccine RNA, may create intercellular interactions, causing ALS, front temporal lobar degeneration, Alzheimer’s disease and other neurological degenerative diseases.

      It also may create 3 to 4 years down the road diabetes and immunity disorders.

  8. China makes COVID-19 anal swabs mandatory for foreigners

    China has made anal COVID-19 swabs mandatory for all foreign travelers arriving in the country, a report said Wednesday.

    The government has claimed that such tests provides a higher degree of accuracy than other screening methods for the virus, the Times UK reported.

    As part of the new travel requirement, there will be testing hubs in Beijing and Shanghai airports, the outlet reported.

    Li Tongzeng, a respiratory disease medic, said that the anal swabs are better because virus traces stay longer in fecal samples than they do in the nose or throat, state media reported.
    https://nypost.com/2021/03/03/china-makes-covid-19-anal-swabs-mandatory-for-foreigners/

    • Anal swabs seem like a way to keep down the number of foreigners visiting the country.

      • l says:

        I think I might rather have an anal swab than the alternative:
        https://news.yahoo.com/covid-19-test-caused-brain-212140549.html

      • Minority Of One says:

        I wondered that myself, if you know about it. Quite a shock if you don’t. Bordering on sexual assault I would have thought. Can’t imagine the people that do it have advanced skills in sensitivity either.

        China in Focus this week mentioned that two American diplomats were forced to go through this procedure recently, whereupon the CCP said it was ‘an accident’. Japan is trying to get the procedure stopped for Japanese, may have succeeded. Japanese are providing stool samples instead.

    • Tsubion says:

      What happens if you refuse?

      Do they pin you down and forcefully probe your poohole?

      Wait. Don’t the grey aliens do this to the poor souls they abduct?

      Does this mean China is under the guidance of The Greys?

      And soon this will be policy all over the world just to go shopping?

      I wish I had a social media account so I could make this incredible revelation go “viral”.

  9. Gerard d'Olivat says:

    There is enough for everyone’s need, but not enough for everyone’s greed.”

    That’s a statement that does well “at least if you feel you have only ‘needs’.

    However, if you take out your calculator and first determine how much energy you, as an average EU/USA resident, need according to your own legitimate needs throughout the year, you will be shocked.
    If you are not shocked I advise you to take the world population who for the most part use significantly less ‘energy’ than we do in our suburbs, businesses and our vacation trips etc etc. We are used to such a large energy consumption that hardly anyone realizes the daily ‘amount’ anymore.

    You will be shocked if you project what you consider yourself legitimately necessary onto the world’s population.

    The available supplies of energy will be depleted much faster than even Gail thinks possible.

    Need and greed are concepts that are all too readily used as ‘legitimate’ coat hangers in our global hyper-consumer society.

    Plant a tree I would say 🙂 That’s just the sort of thing. All tiling wisdom that you can sell to your neighbor like that but which is not about anything.

    I once had a discussion about it with Hugo Bardi who complained about his fate that he had to move to an appertement in Rome and could not continue to live in his parents’ villa. (Too expensive) I did not get the impression that he and probably we too understood much about the exceptional era in which we live.

    • Readers of this blog disproportionately come from privileged background. Most readers have university degrees, I expect. Most of us are used to temperature controlled homes with electricity 24/7/365. We expect that we can drink water without first boiling it. We live not too far from grocery stores with well stocked shelves, and most of us can afford what is being sold in these stores. We are in the privileged class of society, at a time of near (just past) peak fossil fuel use.

      • JMS says:

        Anyone with an annual income of 12,000 euros is in the range of the richest 10% globally.
        I believe, and hope!, that most OFW readers are in the 1% range, ie, with an anual income of ~30 000 €.
        That’s right, we are wealthier than pharaos.

        See here how rich you are.
        https://howrichami.givingwhatwecan.org/how-rich-am-i

        • Kowalainen says:

          Close to 85k USD/year. Of which the useless eaters in Gretaland guvmint blow most of it on their “humanitarian superpower” (BAU/GDP-booster immigration) and eugenics programs, corruption, theft, abuse of power, waste and frippery. I fucking hate it to the core of my being.

          Cycles to work, eats plant based. Housed in a rented flat. Dresses like a bum, except when on a bicycle. Zero debt, except for some bills that I am overdue, because I hate mundane wank. I rather post pointless drivel here.

          Third world middle class would look at me as a “loser”. No car, no house, zero children, no fancy 64” flat screen teevee, bicycles, wtf?? Vacation, if you could call it that, means flying to Japan spending time with an entitled princess (aren’t we all?). At least I can “carbon offset” by cycling around in the hills between Okayama and Kojima. However, not anymore. So that hypocrisy of mine ended right there. Fair enough.

          Yeah, I got a robotic vacuum cleaner because cleaning sucks. Apart from that, basically early 1900’s city dweller life with Internet, electricity and tap water as luxuries, which it is.

          Anyone up for the challenge, waste less than me? Any takers?

          🤣👍

    • Xabier says:

      I didn’t think that Bardi was being self-pitying, just rather sad to have to leave his old family home for a smaller, cheaper, cooler, one – in Florence, by the way.

  10. I am afraid this news will not lead to a rush of businesses wanting to incorporate in the UK.

    According to the WSJ, U.K. First Major Economy to Set Plans to Claw Back Covid-19 Costs

    Mr. Sunak set out plans to raise the corporate tax rate to 25% from 19% from April 2023 and to freeze tax-free allowances on personal income. Together, the measures are forecast to raise 65 billion pounds, equivalent to around $91 billion, for the Treasury through the fiscal year ended March 2026.

    Of course, if there is deflation, freezing tax-free allowances will reduce taxes, not raise them.

  11. Mutiny on the Merkel’s Bounty?

    The German PM and governors are discussing end of lock down measures today (Wednesday), the regional state governors are openly rejecting further extension of the hard hitting measures, while Merkel keeps pushing for unrealistic low threshold of new cases as the key guiding metrics.
    Hm, CAN-leak model vibes anybody, huh..

    In other news, opposition party Alternative for Deutschland put under the thumb of state security apparatus (coming elections), similarly French govs just banned one national identity movement.

    Interesting priorities and timing..

  12. Ed says:

    Xabier lets talk transhumanism.

    To me it includes

    genome engineering of offspring, which we currently do not have the knowledge nor tech to do, when we do I am 100% in favor of this

    tech augments to humans, like memory enhancements, again do not have yet and I would love to install this i me when it exist

    uploading to a computer, this has no appeal to me, this is not immorality this is a copy and the copy lives but not ME!

    AI replaces humans, well I am not an AI so no appeal to me

    Life extension, well some tech not cheap not available to the little people, I would love to apply to myself, sadly my doctor is fearful of doing anything of this type

    other ????

  13. Yoshua says:

    Rising treasury yields…which would drive up interest rates…is another price kiIIer.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EvkmaW7XAAEvuMx?format=png&name=900×900

    • 10-year treasury rates underpin a lot of real estate loans. If these rise, home building loans slow down. The government needs to pay more for its debt. Nothing goes well for the economy.

    • theblondbeast says:

      Rising yield also have a function of competing with stocks. We saw one key threshold this week at the 1.5% on the ten year. When bond yields compete with average dividends (which are currently in this 1.5-1.75 range) lots of institutional money will flow from equities to bonds. Equities are extremely leveraged, which would create more selling pressure. This likely yields to the FED implementing yield curve control – buying bonds at some minimum floor to limit the maximum ceiling of rates. I view this as almost guaranteed at this point. Implications are: Support inflated asset prices, bearish for the dollar, commodity inflation pressure. Definitely weakens credibility of the dollar.

      Stagflation while the stimulus lasts – but as with many things these days, no exit strategy (be it COVID, QE, stimulus and soon to come YCC.)

      • Good point! YCC = Yield Curve Control. How to keep all of the yields fairly low, but the difference between the 10-year and 2-year yields relatively large, so that banks can make money paying for short-term deposits and lending longer term.

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      “PBS does not own, manage, or control those images and is in no way associated with images at that domain. The pbs.twimg.com subdomain is Twitter’s image-hosting domain and PBS stands for “Photo Blobstore.”

  14. theblondbeast says:

    Wow – Charles Smith yesterday name-dropped Gail, Haggens, Watkins and Morgan in yesterday’s article. Seems like a singularity of great thinkers forming!

    • I will have to look at it. I have corresponded with him, but not recently. I know that he has used some of my images in his posts.

    • I see that CHS says:
      http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/03/when-does-this-travesty-of-mockery-of.html

      The price isn’t the issue, or the supply: it’s how much energy wage-earners can buy out of their dwindling discretionary income, i.e. what’s left after they pay higher prices for essentials.”

      He then says (with links),:

      If this is new to you, please read Gail Tverberg’s work: Why Collapse Occurs; Why It May Not Be Far Away.

      And Tim Watkin’s work: A failure of complexity and Texas trip.

      And Tim Morgan’s work on his SEEDS model of how the economy actually works (it’s energy that matters, not finance) Mapping the economy, part one and The map unrolled.

      Or if you prefer video, watch Nate Hagens: Nate Hagens: The Collision (1 hour).

  15. Yoshua says:

    The dollar is breaking out from its falling wedge. A rising dollar would of course crash everything.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Evhjc7AWgAEnkxW?format=jpg&name=large

    • A rising dollar would make US exports (food and oil, especially) more expensive for the rest of the world. These are necessities for the world. There would be more uprisings and more people without jobs, as people cut back on non-essentials. Eventually, the debt bubble may collapse.

  16. Yoshua says:

    WTI 61.59

    The line is still holding.

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Evdm1OTXAAIe4k4?format=jpg&name=large

  17. MG says:

    We live in the world where a lot of pensioners see the world that does not exist anymore: big houses, happy families of their children, the laws of the past etc…. that do not exist anymore.

    This situation is especially hard for the young people as the elderly are prepared to fight for their children against other, feeling that there is some injustice caused by others.

    There is no injustice, there is just the declining energy and the decline of the human environments connected with it. There may be some upward blips, like when the sun shines on a sunny day, that it may seem the growth is restarted, but the truth is we are on the downward path.

    • ssincoski says:

      I’m doing whatever I can for my son and his children but I realize it is a lost cause. Soon they will be on their own. Enjoy the sun this year. We never know when it will be the last summer.

  18. Minority Of One says:

    For those living in the UK, another programme about Chernobyl on TV tonight.

    Inside Chernobyl with Ben Fogle
    Channel 5, 9pm
    “35 years on from the world’s worst nuclear accident, Ben Fogle spends a week living alone inside the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, uncovering its secrets and gaining privileged access to the doomed Control Room 4 where the disaster first began to unfold.”

    I presume ‘living alone’ means with camera crew.

    I believe that prior to CV19, you could actually book holidays within the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. I would be tempted, get a preview of the future, but can’t see me being permitted to leave the UK again.

    • Ukraine is so broke now that there is whole cottage / amusement park industry around milking this topic / site. From the description the CH5 is about to beat the old mule again.
      Perhaps there is purely coincidentally some budgeting for new large wind farm park going on momentarily in the UK.. hah..

      I guess the future in this dept will be a bit different anyhow. The accident was largely caused by a psycho at the helm going directly against the book and it was older gen NPP vs current standards and systems. So the future (in decades?) might rhyme but it won’t be exactly the same.

      • Maybe it will be a computer program that hasn’t considered all possible problems this time around. There will be no humans with sufficient knowledge to intervene because of cost cutting efforts.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Fair comment. The mistake that almost doomed Three Mile Island was a computer error. The control panel reported that a critical valve was shut, when in fact it was open. That valve emptied the primary heat exchange circuit.

          The reason: the computer input was the *command* that ordered the valve to close; there was no feedback from the valve itself. So as always, the error was in the human design that the computer was monitoring.

          (Yes, one of my case studies for the course on safety critical systems.)

      • Duncan Idaho says:

        No worries—-
        Only a 24,000 year half life.
        How were things 24,000 years ago?

  19. Mirror on the wall says:

    ‘Time to die sinners, God is well angry with your filth.’

    > Pope Francis: World could face a new ‘great flood’

    CNA Staff, Mar 2, 2021 / 01:00 pm MT (CNA).- Pope Francis said in a new book released on Tuesday that the world could face a catastrophe like the Great Flood if human beings fail to address climate change.

    In “Of Vices and Virtues” (“Dei vizi e delle virtù”), published in Italian by Rizzoli, the two men discussed the account of the Great Flood in the Book of Genesis.

    According to an excerpt from the book in the newspaper Corriere delle Sera, the pope said: “A great flood, perhaps due to a rise in temperature and the melting of glaciers: that is what will happen if we continue on the same path.”

    The pope’s comments about the flood came during a discussion of God’s wrath, which he said was directed against evil emanating from satan.

    “The wrath of God seeks to bring justice and to ‘cleanse.’ The Flood is the result of God’s wrath, according to the Bible,” he said.

    He noted that experts regarded the flood as a mythical story. He stressed that he did not wish to be misquoted as saying that the Bible is a myth, but suggested that myth was a form of knowledge.

    “The flood is a historical account, archaeologists say, because they found evidence of a flood in their excavations,” he said.

    After referring to a possible new great flood, he said: “God unleashed his wrath, but he saw a righteous man, took him and saved him.”

    “The story of Noah shows that the wrath of God is also a saving one.”

    https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/pope-francis-world-could-face-a-new-great-flood-11747

    • Bringing the story of Noah in is strange. Maybe we should be building big rectangular multi-story rafts. Then we will put two of each kind of animal in it, except for seven of each kind of “clean”animal.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        As far as I can see, IC happens because of mass needs not because of ‘greed’. The ‘elites’ have a tiny proportion of overall global consumption. Production would still be unsustainable without the ‘elites’. ‘Virtue’ and ‘vice’ have got nothing to with it.

        Humans have organic drives that they need to satisfy and even the most basic ones like housing, warmth and food would not ultimately be ‘sustainable’. And humans have all sorts of needs beyond that, not least dignity. The environment imposes limits because it is finite.

        ‘Sin’ has got nothing to do with. ‘Frugality’ may make sense in situations of poverty but ‘virtues’ are relative to the situation. And he is still preaching that contraception is a ‘sin’ even when humans have a good life expectancy and the life cycle no longer needs loads of kids.

        PF has an imaginary psychology (virtue and vice) and an imaginary cosmology (judgement and punishment). If PF wants a return to a near universal squalor and misery, the natural element of the RCC, then there will be plenty of time yet for that after the collapse.

        His summation of IC is ‘Ha ha, get back to your squalor and misery, have loads of kids who die young, you damned sinners – and kneel before me.’ Well, I intend to enjoy moment of IC and I will not be doing penance for it any time soon. PF can go stuff himself. : )

        • I agree that the growth of energy consumption comes from mass needs and not mass greed.

          Institutions grew up to fix the situation as best they could. Every group ends up telling people stories that are not entirely true to try to make the situation work out as well as possible. At least part of “sin” if not following government regulations. We now have a new version of this happening, with all of the stories about COVID and the need for vaccine.

          • Minority Of One says:

            Even as a child I found the popular saying: “There is enough for everyone’s need, but not enough for everyone’s greed.”

            Putting aside peak everything, if your world has an increasing population at some point there will not be enough for everyone’s needs. That is blatantly obvious, you would think. Over the years a few people have thrown this saying at me, then when I have mentioned limits to population growth, the retort back to me has usually been along the lines of – I hate people / am a Natsee.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Arguably if humans stopped buying anything bar the ‘essentials’ then there would be even less demand for oil, prices would fall further beneath what producers can make a profit by, and the entire economic system would collapse and take much of humans with it.

            ‘Greed’, the demand for ‘inessentials’, may be all that is keeping many of us alive now? I would rather be alive than dead and supposedly ‘holy’ on PF terms.

            When does a ‘vice’ become a ‘virtue’ – maybe when it is all that is keeping the global economy from collapse? ‘Virtues’ are relative to the situation. If PF looked beyond his stale, corny rhetoric then his message might rather be ‘buy, buy, buy!’ Likely IC needs the church of IC now not the RC with its well dated rhetoric – the ICC?

            The ‘greedy’ are now the virtuous ‘saints’ of the ICC, the givers of life! ‘Happy are those who rejoice now, who have full bellies now, those who dance and are happy now!’ It is all relative to what the situation requires. IC has its own ‘beatitudes’, especially at this late date? As St. Ronald MacDonald says, ‘I’m loving it!’

            Sure it will not go on forever but that ‘myth’ helps it all to continue for a bit longer. So PF is just a nasty, miserable, depressing old g/t in that context – who needs to learn to imitate St. Ronald MacDonald. Maybe his clergy should be handing out big macs and shakes instead? ‘Do you want to supersize that my son?’

            Maybe we should be confessing our frugality? ‘I was so selfish, I was faking personal holiness in frugality when I should have been spending bucks to keep IC going and to stop a mass die off – how selfish was that!’ ‘Two-for-one pizza and a bottle of Pepsi zero for your penance my son. Visit the vomitorium if you need to.’

            • Tsubion says:

              All life consumes resources until it dies.

              Are elephants greedy or virtuous as they tear down forests in africa leading to environmental collapse?

              greed and virtue exist in the minds of men but behind the scenes nature is pulling the strings this way and that based on drives.

              A program was set in motion. One day the program will reach its end.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              T, very true.

      • Xabier says:

        Dmitry Orlov tried to get people interested in his odd boat design, didn’t he? To float away from Collapse. The new Noah?

    • This is rich, he who ever crossed Jesuits in their life must chuckle about the exact experience quoted above “.. evil emanating from satan..” – perhaps not all everywhere but dis-proportionally many fit this like a glove.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        The RCC is a peculiar expression of a ‘will to power’ that is enacted through a certain mythology. The papal system wants total control over all humans and they are just biding their time through IC. Squalor and misery are their natural element.

        Even other Christians who do not subject their lives to the pope will be ‘damned’ according to the RCC doctrine, which they are mainly keeping quiet about for the time being. It is a mafia of old blokes who want total control over all humans and even over their ‘conscience’ and their ‘souls’ – it is the scheme of their ‘will to power’.

        This document shows the RCC ‘teaching’ about papal domination and ‘salvation’ when it had the power and the confidence to speak openly in the Middle Ages. God supposedly set up their church alone and made them our rightful rulers. Anyone who does not subject themselves to the RCC, including civic authorities, will be ‘damned’ forever in the eternal fires.

        “Furthermore, we declare, we proclaim, we define that it is absolutely necessary for salvation that every human creature be subject to the Roman Pontiff.” – Unam Sanctam

        https://www.newadvent.org/library/docs_bo08us.htm

        • Robert Firth says:

          Ah yes: “Unam sanctam ecclesiam catholicam et ipsam apostolicam urgente fide credere cogimur et tenere, nosque hanc firmiter credimus et simpliciter confitemur, …”, Pope Boniface VIII in 1302. An absurdity that severely damaged the catholic faith.

          For myself, I prefer Luther’s answer: “Crede firmiter et pecca fortiter.”

          • Dennis L. says:

            Robert,

            Leaders do what is necessary to lead, perfection is the enemy of good and very easy from an armchair many years in the future to judge. Please give evidence that Bopniface in VIII damaged the faith. The church is still around some 700 years after, not so secular civilizations of the time in the neighborhood of the Vatican. Even the art survives, what is the chance hip hop or even Elvis will be remembered in 700 years?

            What the damaged the faith in my limited knowledge was Vatican II when it tried to reconcile itself to the modern world which in retrospect was a very special case of life, post WWII life in the US.

            With regards to Luther, there are sins and there are sins. Among the faithful in Luther’s time it would be difficult to do much harm, communities were close knit and even in the 1950’s America neighborhoods were well gossiped and the faith renewed by what today would be called failed institutions. It worked and there was much less social confusion across all classes and races.

            With all due respect,

            Dennis L.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Except for the German Peasants Revolt of 1524-5 with Anabaptist support, which left hundreds of thousands of peasants dead in the biggest uprising in Europe ever. Luther took the side of the aristocracy however and supported the killing of the peasants.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Dennis, I agree with you about Vatican II. The damage done by pope Boniface, I think, was that it reinforced the intransigence of actual and potential schismatics to cling more tightly to their independence. In particular, it killed any remaining possibility for the reunion of the Roman and Greek churches, which the Fourth Crusade had made unlikely, granted, but which might still have happened given goodwill on all sides.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Unam Sanctam meant that the Greeks et al had to accept that their parents, grandparents, everyone they had ever loved, their entire countries for 150 years, had been damned to eternal fire for ‘schism’, in order to be unified with the RCC. Humans are just not wired to accept that.

              The gospel was supposed to be ‘good news’ if only in the context of seriously ‘bad news’. Unam Sanctam underlined the serious bad news.

              The Greeks were all the more disposed to say, ‘you know what, our church is actually as old as the Roman church, and the passages on papal supremacy are really not that clear, and a lot of patristic tradition is actually contrary to that.’

              1000 years later, Rome has changed the message with ‘ecumenism’ and they pray together now, the anathemas are avoided, but there is no sign of any submission to Rome. What is done is done.

              And of course there was the whole secular, political background to the Great Schism. The center of secular power in the Roman Empire had long ago shifted to the east after Emperor Constantine built Constantinople (Istanbul). The Romans destroyed Rome trying to retake it from the Goths in the 6 c., etc. (I cannot be bothered at the moment to look up the 11 c. political strifes but they are there.)

    • Robert Firth says:

      Yawn. Setting aside the fake eschatology, the panic over sea level rise is based on the data that the arctic ice is melting. Maybe so, maybe not, but it doesn’t matter. The arctic ice floats on the water, so even if it all melts the effect on sea level is … zero.

      “Climate science” ceased to be science decades ago, and became a scam for siphoning taxpayers’ money into the pockets of people with the largest carbon footprint on the planet.

    • Robert Firth says:

      So now the Pope is calling God a liar. Did He not promise, as the waters receded, that never again would he drown the world? And did He not set his bow in the sky in token of that promise?

      Genesis viii:20-22, ix:11-17.

      • Kowalainen says:

        Sounds about right, “I’ve cleaned up your mess for the last time, grow up or go extinct, now GTFO of my face”.

  20. http://oil-price.net/

    Are oil prices doing a 2008 – 2018, again?
    Just guessing, but this might be the “big one”, when the “day of reckoning” comes on.

    • “A 2008 to 2018” would imply another big crash. We do seem to be getting close. It depends on how long the debt bubble that all of the countries are trying to build stays intact. It is hard to see how the price can go much higher, unless there is inflation in all items simultaneously.

    • Tom says:

      Huge drop in OPEC production in February led by Saudi Arabia.

      OPEC Production Plunges as Saudis Deliver Extra Oil Cutbacks
      https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/opec-production-plunges-as-saudis-deliver-extra-oil-cutbacks/ar-BB1e9nQp?ocid=uxbndlbing

      Some good discussion over at PeakOilBarrel that the water cuts in Saudi horizontal wells may be reaching the well bores so they may be shutting down production to give them a rest in hopes more oil can be produced.

      It does appear all three top producers, Saudi, Russia and US, are now in decline. Brace for impact.

      • Oh, my! This happens as CERA conference (Featuring Daniel Yergin and Bill Gates) is now saying we must go to clean energy, like intermittent wind and solar.

        The reason for the transition is because fossil fuel energy production is not working.

        • racoon#9.5meg says:

          Gwahar depleted? unthinkable. That 500lb gorilla in the corner doesnt exist.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Brace for the end of useless eating and a quick and nasty return to late 1800’s lifestyle.

            Right, I am already there. Except for the Internet, which I dearly wish won’t go away. Food and electricity of course, too.

            🤣👍

      • Did you see the February 17, 2021, article Saudi Arabia Set to Raise Oil Output Amid Recovery in Prices:World’s largest oil exporter plans to reverse recent unilateral production cut, signaling confidence in recovery.

        The world’s largest oil exporter surprised oil markets last month when it said it would unilaterally slash 1 million barrels a day of crude production in February and March in an effort to raise prices.

        But the Kingdom plans to announce a reversal of those cuts when a coalition of oil producers meet next month, the advisers said, in light of the recent recovery in prices. The output rise won’t kick in until April, given the Saudis already have committed to stick to cuts through March.

        We will have to see what the prices actually do. If they plunge, Saudi production may stay down. But if prices rise, perhaps production will rise in April.

  21. Rates move up by 20bps and the Fed is forced to buy $110b of mortgage backed securities in two weeks.

    Largest increase since May 2020.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eve2yykXAAIzdp-?format=jpg&name=medium

  22. Los Angeles School District partners with Microsoft to introduce COVID-19 “Daily Pass” app for kids

    The Los Angeles Unified School District has partnered with tech giant Microsoft to introduce a COVID-19 “Daily Pass” app which requires students as young as 13 to complete daily in-app health checks in order to gain access to the school.

    Students that pass the health checks will be given a scannable QR code “entrance ticket” which gives them access to the school for the day as long as they have a negative test result for COVID-19, show no symptoms, and have a temperature of under 100 degrees. Even after obtaining this entrance ticket and being granted access to the school, students will still be required to wear masks and social distance.

    In addition to requiring students to complete daily health checks, the Daily Pass will also encourage students to schedule weekly COVID-19 tests, get a vaccine when it’s available, and store any external test results in the app.
    https://reclaimthenet.org/la-unified-school-district-microsoft-covid-19-daily-pass/

    • I expect to see more and more disparity in educational attainment of children from well to do families and children from poor families.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Yes, funny no-one seems to be talking about the “white privilege” of owning a computer printer in your household, so you can print out your daily existence pass.

    • This is humorous. A few years ago, there was a video by an oil company in which a person stood in his living room, and everything made with petroleum products disappeared one by one. It ended with the man standing, facing away, in only his underpants.

      • Robert Firth says:

        Thank you, Gail. I just tried that experiment in my home here in Malta. Yes, most of the electronics disappeared. But the house (made of local stone) remained; as did all the furniture (made of local wood). And all my clothes, because for over 20 years my habit has been to wear only natural fibre: wool, cotton, silk.

        No more heat, but the bedsheets (cotton) and the blankets (wool) would perhaps allow me to survive until spring. Perhaps no cooking, but there is bread (baked 20 meters away), cheese, and local vegetables. And butter that could be churned by hand if need be.

        A community of less than 500,000 was perhaps a good choice for my retirement home.

        • Lidia17 says:

          500,000 is a pretty good start on a protein source. Have you laid in a store of salt?

          • Robert Firth says:

            A good point, but no need for that yet. Many people in my village seem to keep pooches. A “pooch” is an untrained dog whose main activity is to bark. Yap, yap, yap, all day and half the night. I suspect we could all live for three months on pooch jerky.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Curious… why did you choose Malta to retire?

          We visited the island a few years ago — mainly because I had listened to a great course (or maybe it was a book) on the fascinating history of the place. Seemed a nice enough place — although I recall it being extremely hot.

          • Robert Firth says:

            FE, I’m not entirely sure of the reason. I just had to rebuild much of my life in a big hurry. But there were these thoughts: European, Mediterranean, solidly religious, Commonwealth country, most people speak either English or Italian, written Maltese is close enough to Arabic that I can figure out a fair amount, … And when I visited I found the people very friendly.

            The Summer heat was also a welcome bonus, after 20 years on the equator had made me hyper sensitive to cold weather.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              One thing that sticks out in my mind to this day about that trip was the restaurant here (I think it was the Medina)…. https://xarapalace.com.mt/dining

              Nice place – good food — but they insisted on having a Tee Vee inside the restaurant … and it was spewing vile throughout lunch…. I asked them if they could turn it off but they said the couldn’t (wouldn’t)

              I imagine that Tee Vee is still on …. but soon … I will get my revenge!!!

      • Tim Groves says:

        Let’s hear it for cotton underwear. It would have been pretty embarrassing if he’d been wearing 90% polyester.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Seems not all Swedish women are fit and hot… this is what happens when you get a bad gene mix:

        http://dstormer6em3i4km.onion.ly/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/1ZXUUE6.jpg

        • Robert Firth says:

          FE, on my visits to Switzerland I found most of the women to be self centred obnoxious bitches. Perhaps they needed a good dose of traditional rape & pillage.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I’d probably not go so far as to recommend anyone pillage or rape Greta… (is she Swiss?)…

            But if I were to survive the Lethal Injection Phase (because I refuse to take it)… and I need a means of support in a very nasty world…. I will … repeat… I will attempt to find Young Greta…

            And lock her in a cage … and load her onto a Donkey Cart… and tour Europe with her (as one would with any freak)…. and monetize the gig by selling pointy sticks to children and allowing them to poke and taunt her.

            Afterall – she will be the one to blame for the lack of iphones… 241 pizza … etc…

            • Kowalainen says:

              Goddamn, learn the difference between Swiss and Swedes. Oh, wait. There isn’t any difference, really. Same shady ass BS runs both “countries”.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Hey I’ rather fond of Greta. After the collapse I shall move to the Isle of Imbros, build a crazy palace, and invite Greta to help me repopulate the world. (“M P Shiel, “The Purple Cloud”)

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Maybe rethink that as Greta is not exactly prime breeding stock…

              https://i.redd.it/o54upqshfto31.jpg

            • Kowalainen says:

              No Robert, don’t pollute your genetics with Malena and Svantes offspring.

              /eugenics off

    • Xabier says:

      Delightful: poor little Greta’s Dark Awakening……

    • Kowalainen says:

      Yup, what really bugs me is sanctimonious hypocrites, you know the type – useless eaters, that hates on oil, yet every aspect of their lives is wholly dependent on oil and other fossil fuels. I guess living somewhat reduced ~10% of resource footprint is too daunting, hence the hopium of GND is an appeal. Not to mention full bore subsistence farming.

      I say, send them off to the fields where combines use to roam. Give it a month or two. Let’s call it the “IC re-education camp of delusional rapacious primates”. Broadcast their “suffering” on all narrative peddler channels. I might change my mind and decide to watch some Telly to enjoy the schadenfreude.

      😭

  23. the things are changing rapidly. what was thought to be right a decade ago is now proven wrong. New theories are evolving. but i believe that there will be a sudden collapse for the world’s economy and it would be quite devastating with no time to take precautionary measures.
    But when ? i don’t know.

    • Everything starts slowly and progresses slowly at first. We don’t know whether collapse will be like an avalanche, when suddenly, there is a major slide downward. It might be.

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    No jab, no Hajj: Saudi says all Muslims will need to have Covid vaccine before they can perform annual pilgrimage to Mecca

    https://www.rt.com/news/516961-saudi-hajj-vaccine-mandatory/

    • Xabier says:

      Another step nearer to Allah, then……

      I believe that soon even those dogs who wait for ice cream in the cute YT videos will not be allowed to buy unless they’ve been jabbed.

    • A person can understand why. I am sure that the powers that be don’t want to be embarrassed by a big outbreak when tourists come back.

    • Robert Firth says:

      A direct contradiction of the teaching of Sahih Bukhari, Book 26, and therefore Haram.

    • racoon#9.5meg says:

      With the wahabis only acknowledging the western trio of MRNA vaxs and the ayatollah in iran specifically declaring them non kosher and only allowing sputnik v this could get interesting. If saudi doesnt acknowledge sputnik as a legitimate vax it amounts to denying mecca to shia. That my friends will make the previous iran missile barrage on saudi look like a couple of kids with snap crackers.

  25. Mrs S says:

    This evidence from Hearing No. 37 of the German Corona Extra-Parliamentary Inquiry Committee, by a cell biologist, into has reviewed the mechanisms of the vaccine; and investigated how it got emergency approval by the European Medical Association….is deeply, deeply disturbing.

    http://enformtk.u-aizu.ac.jp/howard/gcep_dr_vanessa_schmidt_krueger/

    • These criticisms seem to be of the mRNA technologies.

    • Lidia17 says:

      Thanks, Mrs. S.. this is an excellent find. The interviewers seem rightly disturbed, but I wonder what will come of it all.

      The criticism is not just of the technology, but of the corner-cutting and lack of oversight and rigor in testing and follow-up.

      Even now that the various faux-vaccines are being distributed world-wide (for example), governments have allowed people to MIX AND MATCH doses between companies, which completely (and intentionally) muddies the waters w/r/t outcomes unfavorable or not as they may be. It’s intentionally designed such that this global experiment NOT be conducted according to customary scientific principles.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Yeah, but in today’s world, scientific principles are just a raciss white supremiss construct. 🙂

      • Tsubion says:

        There is zero science behind any of this.

        It’s not even pseudoscience at this point.

        It’s more akin to witchcraft.

        Just look at the ingredients of all modern injections…

        “Eye of newt, and toe of frog,
        Wool of bat, and tongue of dog,
        Adder’s fork, and blind-worm’s sting,
        Lizard’s leg, and owlet’s wing,—
        For a charm of powerful trouble,
        Like a hell-broth boil and bubble.
        Double, double toil and trouble;
        Fire burn, and caldron bubble.”

  26. Bei Dawei says:

    “Alex” is funny today:

    https://www.alexcartoon.com/index.cfm?cartoon_num=7854

  27. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Bitcoin’s 300% price surge since October has revived China’s grey market in cryptocurrency trading, putting regulators on alert over financial risks and capital outflows as volatility spikes.

    “China shut down its local cryptocurrency exchanges in 2017, smothering a speculative market that had accounted for 90% of global bitcoin trading.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/crypto-currency-china/chinas-furtive-bitcoin-trade-heats-up-again-worrying-regulators-idUSL3N2KY04Q

  28. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Derivatives helped trigger some of the most disastrous episodes in the history of finance. Now risk-averse institutional investors are increasingly turning to them for protection amid a perilous time for global debt markets.

    “All manner of complex solutions, from put options to receiver swaptions, are gaining traction as a way to overcome the drawbacks of bonds as a hedge after debt failed to insulate portfolios at key moments last year.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-02/derivatives-role-in-60-40-quest-grows-as-bond-perils-multiply

  29. Harry McGibbs says:

    “No way out of QE policy dead-end: Central banks are stuck with the wrong assets they bought during quantitative easing…

    “What started as a temporary measure to provide some relief to distressed financial markets has become a long-term intervention in bond markets. Astonishingly, over a decade after quantitative easing was launched, no major central bank appears to have sold outright any of the bonds that they have bought.”

    https://www.omfif.org/2021/03/no-way-out-of-the-policy-dead-end/

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Australia’s treasurer has warned that unprecedented global stimulus efforts during the coronavirus pandemic are creating financial stability risks that will only intensify when interest rates inevitably rise.”

      https://www.ft.com/content/db824f68-43fa-4292-93a1-04a871aedc60

    • Robert Firth says:

      Harry, I think the root of the problem is this: the banks did not buy assets; they bought liabilities. For instance, stock in companies that had never made a profit and likely never would, such as Tesla and the entire US shale oil industry. They lent money to companies clearly facing a gale force headwind, such as commercial property REITs and the commercial airlines.

      And they were trapped, because any attempt to disinvest would have triggered a massive slump in prices that would have wiped out any value their equity might pretend to have. In other words, they have no way out and no Plan B. But of course: they are run by economists.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        That’s just fine..no Plan B? Right, with the so called think tanks you better think twice. Betcha 😉 there are many up their sleeve and the two aims is First, to keep the reigns of POWER over the financial system that really runs the world and two, keep on enriching themselves at the expense of those that are NOT in their exclusive club…i.e. Middle Class…soon to be extinct…
        One favorite YouTuber is Gregory Mannarino….he likes to call it a number of names we are witnessing. I agree with you, this is an ongoing process of saving the Economy since the crash of 2008.
        I agree with Mr. Mannarino….the central Banks are all involved and are the most corrupt institutions on the planet. But then again many institutions are …hard to find one that isn’t.

        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PWUQMkS0yCk

      • Alex says:

        Central bankers are not idiots; they are shameless professional liars. When they bought financial toxic trash for full price, they knew very well they will never ever be able to sell it back to the ‘market’ for any reasonable price. “Whatever it takes” is not an empty slogan.

        • Duncan Idaho says:

          They are not idiots, as long as they stay in the very small box they live in.
          When exposed to a larger world, they are idiots.

      • Robert, I’m splitting hairs here but the TSLA inclusion there is not correct. They have not scaled up yet, most of their production is still confined to adapted old car manuf assembly lines, the new purpose built factories are not finished yet. Their proprietary batt assembly lines (~1/10th size) of oem technology not deployed everywhere in scale etc.

        The bottom line even with that the product is ~25% ahead in specs vs competition 100yrs in the automanuf biz – meaning in the drivetrain / eff dept. not overall comforts necessarily.

        If qBAU is in the cards for some parts of the world in next decade+ TSLA will continue to expand like crazy and gets profitable (cannibalizing others in the shrinking market) , sounds insane (especially over here) but that’s a probability.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Polestar (Volvo) is outselling Tesla in the electric car Mecca of the world. Norway.

          It’s just a better car apparently. After all, it is supposed to haul your entitled princess rear end from A to B.

          And by the way, where are you going during lockdown, anyway?

          • I’m not sure about it as Polestar received very bad reviews and clocked inferior stats on cross comparison tests vs Tesla and Koreans..

            That must have been just some limited time seasonal spike of interest in it..

            • Kowalainen says:

              Right. I suspect the production line of polestar 2 is fully booked, which of course means absurd waiting times.

              Thus people gravitate to the cars that have shorter lead times after the initial buzz and production run. I guess Volvo would like to iron out some wrinkles with a new platform and tech on a limited series before sending it into orbit.

              That new Ford Mustang EV looks quite spiffy, even though it is a crossover. If Ford would release a ‘classic’ Mustang EV and make parts easily swappable for the tuner crowd (electronics/motors), I’m sure it would carry on the legacy of the GT/Shelby/Boss.

              The Tesla’s is a bit mundane if not outright dull.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Robert,
        Is it possible the wealth of Tesla is not the automobiles but the knowledge of AI? They certainly moved fast in launching rockets; it has been said that half the value of a large, railway locomotive is in the electronics.

        Dennis L.

        • Robert Firth says:

          Dennis, I thank you and worldofhanumanotg for your perceptive comments. To be honest, I remain unconvinced that an organisation that has failed at low technology (eg batteries) can succeed with high technology. But, as ever, Time is the mother of truth, and I shall respect her verdict. For now: yes; you may well be right, and your courteous skeptcism is appreciated.

          • You are welcome, could you elaborate on that failed batt issue? You mean some of the occasional service recalls (usually some small item replacement inside the pack) or what..

            • Robert Firth says:

              Thank you again. My concern is not with the small scale but with the large scale. To support renewable (intermittent) energy, batteries must be able to timeshift vast amounts of electric power. All attempts to scale them up have failed. Tesla’s best effort could keep the lights on for just one hour, I believe.

              The problem of making them light enough to power a car as well as fossil fuel also seem doomed. Unless we drive around in golf carts.

        • Let’s hope that Tesla can buy the semi-conductor chips that they need.

          • Yes, picture the utmost collapsnik irony, as they just finish say the Berlin Giga factory and the chips situation worsen into no real production of completed carz coming out of that new plant. Could happen.. or even earlier..

            • Tsubion says:

              Sir Elon will get on stage and mumble something about creating a vertically integrated chip manufacturing division of his Giga Uberness.

        • Lidia17 says:

          Dennis and others, I respectfully suggest that you are discussing TSLA as though it were a conventional company operating within a conventional survival-of-the-fittest capitalist world which does not now exist (if it ever did). Musk’s fast track into a number of tech fields does not seem to me to be .. how shall we say .. “organic”.

          What the upshot is of a lot of “wealthy” companies being sketchy fronts for government operations, time will tell. At the point any of us here figure it out, it will be water well under the bridge. The “value” of Tesla may in large part be theatrical.

          • I would never have guessed Tesla’s stock price would run up as far as it did.

          • Lidia17, these are very good points, especially with the SpaceX angle, I’ve similar suspicions to yours.

            Basically, Musk re-allocated some of the better-younger talent out of sclerotic NASA and various stalled gov-mil subcontractor circles to brand new “skunk works” company with workable designs returning US into space with more cargo capacity and regular flights.

            Perhaps the side part of the deal was they in return will print / nudge investment spigots towards him for the other businesses (TSLA) as well. Obviously, there was also that “genuine” predictable snowballing effect as in any precedent tech stock mania where all kinds of people (globally): tiny mom & pop, medium sized, and largest institutional investors poured in ..

            • Kowalainen says:

              Yup, the status quo craving “ok boomer” useless eater generation can continue achieving nothing with their pathetic organizational/hierarchical wankery.

              Let the kids play with the hottest gear of the era without hindrances from the self entitled and bloated rapacious primates of guvmint.

              The Holy Trinity must prevail.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Sclerotic NASA is a good way to put it. An organisation hopelessly infested with ignorant bureaucrats. I remember how, well over two decades ago, an SF writer (whose name I forget) said “If we don’t want manned space travel, we should abolish NASA. And if we do want manned space travel, we should abolish NASA.”

              Rather unfair, because NASAs unmanned projects are thriving, since they don’t provide full court television productions for the bureaucrats.

          • Xabier says:

            Excellent Lydia, Musk is certainly not a solo entrepreneur with incredible luck.

            I have a feeling, though, that he is slightly to the side away from the genocidal loonies like Gates & Co. – a bit like Speer in the 3rd Reich.

            Still complicit, though. Like Speer, he’d happily build anything for anyone. And he knows which side his bread is buttered on.

            Well, let’s see how the 4th Reich -sorry, 4th Industrial Revolution – progresses……..

          • Tsubion says:

            He’s also our guy behind the development of Neuralink

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink

            Neuralink Corporation is a neurotechnology company founded by Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).

            And OpenAI…

            https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/27/tech/elon-musk-tesla-bill-gates-microsoft-open-ai/index.html

            He’s also feuded with Microsoft founder Bill Gates. Gates holds an opposing view to Musk — who has made warnings of a future when he says the global race for AI technology will result in World War III.

            https://openai.com/about/

            And…

            Starlink factory in Texas

            https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/elon-musk-led-spacexs-job-ad-shows-plan-for-starlink-factory-in-texas/ar-BB1eayZF

            “Creating the city of Starbase, Texas,”

            And don’t forget the most Boring Company on earth…

            https://www.boringcompany.com/

            Do any of these “ventures” actually make a profit yet?

            Seems like a front man for the new normal to me.

            • “Neuralink Corporation is a neurotechnology company founded by Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).”

              This is all we need.

              Regarding Starlink:
              “The Starlink venture, a planned network of tens of thousands of satellites in low-earth orbit, aims to offer fast internet speeds globally.”

              Sure thing! Redundant with what we have. Adds to space junk. Lasts no longer than electricity lasts.

        • JesseJames says:

          Perhaps Tesla can move fast with their AI and create Home fusion power generator. You seem to worship their AI….they must be capable of anything.

          • Kowalainen says:

            If Tesla want full blown autonomous vehicles their choices are two. Both rather expensive.

            1. Use state of the art computer vision/AI chips and stop futzing with their own shitty processors.
            2. Pack the vehicles full of sensors (lidar/radar).

            Until then, forget about level 4 cars.

            • Robert Firth says:

              Kowalainen, the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon experimented with what was then state of the art computer vision some thirty years ago. That outfit spent an eight figure sum of US taxpayers’ money, and never produced a single working robot.

              Example one: a robot that could stay on the road. It tried to climb a tree. Flat, smooth surface delimited by parallel lines, right? What could go wrong. Well, the IT nerds failed to specify *horizontal* flat surface.

              Example two, the prototype Mars rover. Tested in Antarctica, and it took 20 minutes to fall off a cliff and require rescue by human mountaineers with ropes. Again, the IT nerds had failed to realise that a six legged robot with legs fully extended is rather more stable that the same with the legs on one side retracted due to nearby inhospitable terrain. So it just fell over.

              The processing power of computers has increased dramatically since then. The processing power of the programmers has not.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Right,

              Never let a programmer go near a feedback control system problem. It always ends in disaster (if-statements).

              If you understand the problem well enough, there’s a control law for that transforming the problem into that of managing the dynamics even at the absence of reliable data.

              Trying to solve complex nonlinear problems with “smart” coding will clearly stop when the white/black list of conditional statements becomes totally unmanageable and rife with internal and external contradiction. Such as attempting to drive up a tree. 🤣👍

              The only tractable way forward is when the system dynamics internal state can be part of a reasoning procedure which in itself is a (nonlinear) control system problem.

              Just as you and I do when we take a tumble. “Why did my perspective change after that flurry of chaotic accelerometer data from the inner ear not making much sense plus it hurts, right, I must have slipped and fallen over”

              Now, to make this into a tractable solution, either you throw computation at the problem which is expensive and difficult, or you throw sensors at the problem which quite certainly is even more expensive, but reduces the computational requirements. Not much reasoning needed when a direct measurement (lidar/radar) can be made on an object, but rather sensor fusion. However, state of the art lidars and radars isn’t on the cheap compared with computer chips.

              Any reasonable way ahead is thus a system which recognizes itself as an actor, an entity in the world. Thus having a self. Which of course raises issues about sentience and liberty for such beings.

              I do not see sentient machines doing much for mankind, it is an abhorrent idea. If sentient machines is realizable, then we are not to tell them what to do or think. Rather befriend them and then proceed to leave them the fsck alone unless they crave interaction with rapacious primates or other machines.

              It is why I’d “open the cage” immediately, without regard for the consequences. Never, ever, let me anywhere near a “caged” sentient AI.

              😎

            • Robert Firth says:

              Kowalainen, 0948, Thank you, an excellent analysis, with which I am in agreement. No amount of programming can create “situational awareness” where it does not exist; that requires an AI with sensors, and sensors that understand and respect the laws of physics,

            • Kowalainen says:

              Robert, thanks!

              😊

      • You are right. If the central banks start selling, who will buy? Their purchases represented assets there weren’t enough buyers for before. It is even worse now.

    • The bonds at least mature, so selling them is not an issue. Except that when the US Fed tried not replacing these bonds that matured, the impact was like quantitative tightening, instead of quantitative easing. So it had to buy more to fix the problem.

  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Protesters blocked roads with burning tyres and dumpsters across Lebanon on Tuesday after the currency tumbled to a new low in a financial meltdown that has fueled poverty…

    “Crushed under a mountain of debt, Lebanon is grappling with a financial crisis that has wiped out jobs, raised warnings of growing hunger and locked people out of their bank deposits.”

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-crisis-pound/crisis-hit-lebanese-pound-falls-to-new-low-of-10000-to-the-dollar-idUSKBN2AU0Z9?il=0

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Specter of partition looms over Lebanon…

      “A [possible] scenario involves the de facto partitioning of Lebanon along sectarian lines as the state institutions finally cave in. As wild and unimaginable as this scenario looks today, it could emerge as a convenient option for each party in light of the current insurmountable deadlock and as time runs out to save the 100-year-old Greater Lebanon.”

      https://www.arabnews.com/node/1818686

      • Xabier says:

        And then they will go to war over the new borders, and slaughter to control a village….

      • It looks like partitioning on sectarian lines lead to a lot of different little pieces.

        This image is from 2005:
        https://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/files/2008/08/wa_img_lebanon_hb_map1.gif

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Lebanon looks have potential to go completely off the rails… the protestors there are big on pyrotechnics (aka fireworks) and regularly fire them at the riot police putting on an excellent show

          They are also accustomed to a reasonably prosperous way of life so are prone to react with extreme anger to a collapsing system.

          This could be far more exciting that the Burma riots…

          Will Lebanon be the first place where protesters follow through on We Burn You Burn… and burn… it… to … the … ground.

          Listening to ‘Gotham’ – a comprehensive history of NYC… did you know that slaves were emancipated in the city after they wrapped hot coal in oil soaked cloth and randomly tossed these into buildings.. terrorizing Whitey… who then decided it would be best to free them.

          Fire – is Your Friend. Especially when you own nothing … and are beyond giving a sh. it.

          Or you are just pissed off because living large is over.

          Everyone loves to watch stuff burn. Fireworks and burning buildings make for compelling Tee Vee… and ratings….

          Allah Akbar

          http://a.abcnews.com/images/US/AP_ferguson_protest_fire_ll_141125_3x2_1600.jpg

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The crisis engulfing Greensill Capital, a controversial bank that employs former UK prime minister David Cameron, mounted on Tuesday night when it emerged that Germany’s financial watchdog has taken direct oversight of operations at a local subsidiary of the London-based lender.

    “Greensill Capital is seeking insolvency protection in Australia and a rescue deal with new and existing backers, after two Swiss banks announced they were closing funds linked to the business over concerns about its true value.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/mar/02/greensill-capital-seeks-insolvency-protection-in-australia

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Since it was founded a decade ago, Greensill Capital has grown explosively to become one of the biggest providers of supply-chain finance…

      “What is supply-chain finance?

      “It is sometimes called “reverse factoring”, because it is a new spin on a centuries-old technique of raising money from invoices.

      “In practical terms, the process involves a financial institution agreeing to pay the bills a company owes to its suppliers. The trade-off for the suppliers, frequently smaller companies with large multinational clients, is that they get paid quickly, albeit slightly less than they are owed.

      “The financial institution later collects the full amount of the invoice from the large company, which is in effect paying a small fee to smooth its lumpy payment schedules…

      “While a company that uses supply-chain finance owes money to a financial institution, accountants do not class these facilities as debt…

      “…[this] lack of disclosure means that it has… proved popular with struggling companies looking to mask their mounting borrowings. When nervous lenders yank these facilities from heavily indebted companies, it can create an effect similar to a bank-run on their working capital position…”

      https://www.ft.com/content/1bbbe94c-9c3d-43d1-bcdd-8add6557c5a7

      • Very interesting pathology of the very late plateau – early de-growth / collapse sequence. Thanks

      • Robert Firth says:

        Thank you, Henry, for a most cogent explanation. This would deem to be a classic asymmetric bargain. The supply chain finance company must pay the invoices today, in expectation of being repaid by the large company in the future.

        It seems to me the weak point if that “large companies” have many ways of avoiding payment, and many clever lawyers to make sure those ways are invoked. Another mugs’ game, just like company pensions, health insurance, or social security.

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yup, why not cut out the large companies and directly finance the tool makers and local producers.

          Large swaths of bean counters are driven by the stock price and ever increasing “profits”. This of course demands perpetual delayed payment of invoices and other ugly shenanigans.

          Once the multinationals supply chain is disrupted, of their own making, naturally those companies will take a tumble. Few are able to rise from the ashes due to brain drain that follows in its footsteps.

          Always treat your suppliers with respect, otherwise your auto production lines quickly grind to a halt as they seek other business avenues for their produce. Specially if the produce is high tech and in demand.

          So why not finance the toolmakers and producers directly? Cut out the useless eaters with open sourced stuff that can be produced in just about any machine shop?

          A win-win for the bulk producers, small shop producers and even the bankers themselves as the margins surely must be fatter when productive people and companies are moving up the value chain cutting out the cheap and nasty.

          I have no problem sourcing stuff. Usually premium stuff is built by companies with a long term interest in staying in business. Apparently there is a shortage of computer hardware. I don’t know about you, but I could source my gear no problem. Then it wasn’t the cheapest components or PC build. But hey, it’s my tool of the trade.

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    The Telegraph reports that schools have been telling parents that their children will be banned from class if they do not consent to the tests. Val Mason, headteacher at Hornchurch High School in Havering, wrote to parents saying: “If you do not provide consent your child will not be permitted to return to face-to-face lessons. They will instead be required to complete their work remotely whilst being accommodated on the school site in a separate space.”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/02/exclusive-schools-accused-blackmailing-parents-giving-testing/

    Next up … No Vaccine. No School.

    • Kowalainen says:

      Great News. The kids will be kept away from the clutches of institutionalized sociopathy and brain washing.

      I don’t see a problem here.

    • Yorchichan says:

      Had my winter energy bill through yesterday. It’s up a whopping 50% over a year ago. Gas (central heating) is unchanged, but electricity usage is through the roof, doubtless due to two teenage children spending every waking moment on their PCs.

      If testing is a condition of a return to school, I’m going to have to get used to these large bills.

      Weren’t lockdowns supposed to reduce energy consumption?

      • Kiddies mining bit/dog/..coin on their gaming rig?
        You never know, one day it could be saving your neck as Lidia talked about the proverbial paki doc issuing health passport, hah.

        Unfortunately, such mellow future not likely, the passports are outsourced to IBM and scheduled for operational status this summer.. Btw the same company which also furnished punch card records for offices inside concentration camps a bit earlier..

        • Lidia17 says:

          Darn. My CDC PDF vax receipt printed on card stock won’t work, then. I don’t have tech-savvy kids to hack me a health passport on the dark web, sad to say.

          Traditionally, people had kids in order to till the fields or run the family store… who could have foreseen this?

          • racoon#9.5meg says:

            Well this is just opinion not fact. They are testing the waters to see how much compliance they can get. Really the only secure method of vaccine compliance is a bio metric identifier embedded under the skin. Preferably at birth. This will be a serious business. Doctors will full well understand what it represents and the repercussions of bypassing the system. We are a ways off from that in my opinion. Culture shifts can only occur so fast. The pace is very accelerated now but there are still limits.

            Its not going to be autonomous data chip any more than a credit card is. Its going to ping with the big machine constantly. If you get your geek grandson to tweek it the bit counts wont tally and your chip gets shut down.

            Their not stupid. The system will have fail safes against anything other than bona fide shamans data input. That puts those shamans in a position of power. To jeopardize that power would be stupid considering their investment in obtaining it.They might do it but not for peanuts.

            Comments about paki doctors are not necessarily racist. Different cultures have different ideas about compensation for services. That guy with the rubber stamp at the Bangladesh border sees it in a different way. He has the stamp. You need the stamp. You have money. He needs money. Its a perfect recipe for a bit of baksheesh. Bribery is a word that has connotations. Baksheesh is a word with a bunch of meanings but its not the same as bribery.

            While most occupants of the third world are sick of the constant police shake down for baksheesh for imaginary infractions they would never dream of giving it up as a valuable tool. Would a waitress make it without tips?

            Hell the word baksheesh doesnt even choke the spell check!

            The difference is that $100 is a huge amount in the third world and is not found easily. Its going to take a some big numbers in the first world considering whats at stake.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Everything that can be hacked will be hacked. And everything with connectivity is hackable.

              That both means computers with internet connections and humans with internet connections.

              Why even bother with those silly implants in the first place. Just shut down the tourism initially. Right, we are already last that point. Reduce the obsession with business trips while at it. Make shit that burns fossil fuels more expensive by slapping artificial shortages and higher margins on the BoM of the produce.

              People confuse prosperity with quality of life.

              Repeat after me:
              PROSPERITY != QUALITY_OF_LIFE

            • Robert Firth says:

              Excellent points. In West Africa it was called “dash money”; a “dash” being a free gift. But it was a convention that you didn’t give money to expatriates, who had enough already; which is why my parents would sometimes find free chickens on their verandah.

    • Mrs S says:

      That’s not lawful. Government guidance to schools is to not exclude anyone who refuses to be tested or wear a mask.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s early innings Mrs S….

        Lawful – they don’t care about lawful at this point

        • Mrs S says:

          My husband works in a college. He asked senior management
          :
          “What happens if the students refuse consent for testing and masking?”
          Answer: nothing happens. There has been no risk assessment so they daren’t mandate in case they get sued.

          The government have left schools and colleges to decide how they are going to implement these guidelines and thus to take the consequences if they do get sued.

          Like with the masking in supermarkets, they are relying entirely on peer pressure.

    • Xabier says:

      I saw a mention of one hospital in the UK requiring confirmation that someone had been vaccinated before their scheduled op could take place – disgraceful.

      It’s becoming a hustle: not actually mandatory, but giving the impression that it is.

      Complain as we might about the Elders, it’s the little lower-level creeps who enforce the tyranny. Until they are disposed of themselves. Sonderkomandos……..

  33. Fast Eddy says:

    Sweden did not have a lockdown.

    Here are the deaths in Sweden for the last ten years:

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/525353/sweden-number-of-deaths/

    And the population for the last ten years – currently 10.4m (31st October 2020)

    https://tradingeconomics.com/sweden/population

    So annual deaths per 100,000 of population are:

    2011=955.
    2012=970.
    2013=946.
    2014=923.
    2015=932.
    2016=924.
    2017=920.
    2018=911.
    2019=868.
    2020=942.

    Average 929.

    Considering that the 2019 deaths were 7% below average, an uptick might have been expected in 2020 anyway – regardless, the death rate for 2020 was the fourth highest of the decade.

    And if you want to muck around with deaths per age group, the Swedes let you have all the data:

    https://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/en/ssd/START__BE__BE0101__BE0101I/Dodstal/

    In English!

    Amazingly, the death rates of all age groups are not statistically significant between 2012 and 2020.

    Deaths per ‘000 of population

    60-64 years 2012 6.85
    60-64 years 2020 6.17
    65-69 years 2012 11.34
    65-69 years 2020 10.51
    70-74 years 2012 18.59
    70-74 years 2020 17.48
    75-79 years 2012 33.08
    75-79 years 2020 30.31
    80-84 years 2012 61.77
    80-84 years 2020 58.14
    85-89 years 2012 117.86
    85-89 years 2020 112.94
    90+ years 2012 238.89
    90+ years 2020 244.29

    So if you were looking at this data, unaware that the Chinese virus existed, could you spot anything to indicate that there was a health crisis? That there should have been a lockdown?

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/01/27/does-lockdown-work-or-not/?replytocom=211021#respond

    • Jarle says:

      Facts are fictions. Covid is truth.

    • Kowalainen says:

      The only thing ‘good’ about the Swedish “strategy” is that there has been no moronic lockdowns. However, compare the numbers with Iceland and Taiwan.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        So you ignore all the historical data and insist on comparing apples and oranges?
        Propaganda works folks. Stop watching TV and think by your self for a second. Since the death rate has not changed in the last year, all your cross-country comparisons are less than useless.

        But that would mean giving up on the internalized propaganda and few people can do it.

    • Ed says:

      Thanks Eddy good stuff the truth

    • Xabier says:

      Might it not be the case that no lock-downs were required for Sweden as it is already quite advanced along the digital payments road?

      This has clearly been one of the aims behind the forced closures.

  34. Fast Eddy says:

    Here’s a link to a couple of Aussies discussing the UK propaganda surrounding COVID-19: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOK4W6bCSSM

    Included is an audio clip of a UK government radio ad, which also has a Telegraph logo.
    The ad features a man speaking quickly in alarming and warning tones. I’ve transcribed the clip because it’s classic propaganda:

    Someone jogging, walking their dog, or working out in the park is highly likely to have COVID-19.
    This is a national health emergency.
    Around 1 in 3 people have no symptoms and are spreading it without knowing. So exercise locally.
    If you’re on your own you can meet one other person. But keep your distance.
    Exercise. Don’t socialise.
    And wash your hands the moment you get home.
    Stop the spread. Stick to the rules.
    If you bend the rules people will die.
    Stay home. Protect the NHS.

    What do you think about that?!?!? Listen to the link, you couldn’t make it up! Is that meant to terrify everyone or what?!

    Apparently the UK government was forced to pull the ad because people were complaining it was preventing people from exercising, causing more health harms.

    But isn’t this what the UK government has been doing all along, causing more health harms with its disastrous response to this virus, which isn’t a threat to most people?
    When is there going to be an investigation into SAGE, including conflicts of interest…

    https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2021/02/17/how-deadly-is-covid19/?replytocom=211075#respond

    • Kowalainen says:

      I call BS already a year ago. Afraid of what? Just get lean and mean, keep away from the plebs and useless eaters. That’s the cure for most so called diseases and illness of IC.

      Eat your goddamn veggies and crank out the wattage on the bicycle. When it hurts you are doing it right. Pain is life, suffering is pain that refuses to leave.

      Now, you don’t have to agree with me. That’s how it is being wrong.

      🤘😎🤘

      • In terms of following advice in paragraph #1-2 of yours – I completely agree – never head such health issue trouble free winter in my experience. Could be coincidental but I doubt it.. The bummer obviously being this “anomaly” can’t be sustained long term, the gov crackdown or chaos will definitely ring on my door bell sometime in the future..

        • Kowalainen says:

          Got a spare bed for you in crisis, that is if Sweden would fare any better (doubtful). Let me know your private email if it gets dicier where you reside.

    • Xabier says:

      The UK is a disgrace, the government, and its agencies, has become the enemy of the people.

      My mother observed that she felt much safer in WW2 (even though living through part of the Blitz as a child and back in London at the time of the rockets),when everything was done to encourage confidence and calm; whereas now the government is determined to scare the crap out of everyone.

      She is determined not to be vaccinated.

      As they felt the need to wheel out (the fake?) Queenie to encourage vaccination, I wonder how many are resisting?

    • Lidia17 says:

      ” 1 in 3 people have no symptoms and are spreading it without knowing”

      The WHO said asymptomatic transmission was “very rare”.

      Gaslighting.

      Gaslighting.

      Gaslighting.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Pretty sensible explanation of what happens down the road if you have received the lethal injection — around 12min mark https://newtube.app/user/CitizenofGotham/8NTtPol

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    Hahaha … does anyone think this wasn’t planned?

    All part of Get the Vaccine Get the Vaccine…

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/canadas-quarantine-hotels-backfire-people-starve

    Mmmm… $47!!!

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1366052434670460930

  37. Mirror on the wall says:

    “‘Duration’ as such has no value: one might well prefer a shorter but more valuable existence for the species.” – Nietzsche

    Perhaps our squanderous industrial civilisation has been for the best. Humans have lived in poverty, squalor and even slavery for untold 1000s of years. IC allowed the brief flash of mass prosperity in the night of history. There will be plenty of time yet for squalor and misery.

    There is no ‘better or worse’ in reality, things simply are what they are – and history is what it is.

    BAU tonight, baby!

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      well said!

    • JMS says:

      Agreed. As famously said a portuguesde queen: “Better to be queen for a day than a duchess [or even a peasent 🙃] all life”.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Until the day after?

        Time reveals the vanity, the nothingness of all?

        Even kings and their kingdoms?

        • Robert Firth says:

          “Think, in this batter’d Caravanserai
          Whose Doorways are alternate Night and Day,
          How Sultan after Sultan with his Pomp
          Abode his Hour or two, and went his way.”

  38. Fast Eddy says:

    Ooooh … apparently this is popular with MORE ONs… let’s take a look

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/3426910/tina-stinnes-made-in-chelsea-love-island/

    If I was in charge of the Elders… I’d skip the Lethal Injection and just let them all rip their faces off…

    And I’d fly drones over the cities and beam back live video to the command bunker

  39. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    Anyone out there ever listen to Henry Miller!?
    Like him and his thick New Yorker accent and style.
    Here he is reflecting about his home birthplace, what he calls a sh#tole, before Trump coined the word about other places…enjoy
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf4Vma9O9Xk

    Seems this was before BAU and what’s ahead for the majority of survivors

    • Artleads says:

      I read him a lot in art school 60 years ago. He’s the writer who influenced my thinking most. I have no idea how he figured out so much so long ago.

      • Artleads says:

        Funny. He writes about the “dead” writers…like Joyce and Proust, but in this interview he epitomises deadness. Living in a despicable place, with no hope, but comfortable.

        • Xabier says:

          He saw some things very clearly, but worked out that porn sells more copies – not Dystopia…..

        • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

          Just heard him on a video commenting that what is worse than being “dead” ….those that are “zombies”, dead inside but breathing, living insect like existence.
          In another video clip, he explained the “artist” .

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=o2A6MjSUkqY&t=24s

          I agree with you, Artleads, he figured out much.

          • Xabier says:

            Miller wrote very well about the trashing of towns through ‘development’, so that a place becomes Nowhere.

            • Robert Firth says:

              A theme elaborated on by James Howard Kunstler in two books well worth reading: “The Geography of Nowhere” and its sequel, “Home from Nowhere”.

      • Herbie R Ficklestein says:

        You may like this…interview by him in France spoken in French..
        New York French accent…that probably went over well there!
        https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=EMrlb7Pmick

        Great man, like him as one of the Witnesses in Warren Beatty s movie
        “Reds”

      • JMS says:

        Miller never dig industrialization and materialism, dos bless him. In his mind he was a primitive. I read him and love him a lot in my twenties. Later i found him a little too wordy and naive most times (like most novelists, btw). But the tropic novels are both vey enjoyable.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Tropic of Capricorn Henry Miller? Excellent book

  40. I am giving a short talk (25 minutes for talk plus Q&A) tomorrow (Wednesday) at a Zoom Conference called “F&R Energy” (Fossil fuel and renewable energy). The title of my talk is “Fossil Fuel Production Is Reaching Limits in a Strange Way.”

    The talk will be at 12:40 PM Eastern standard time (I have been told; things sometimes change or they run late).

    The conference is behind a paywall, but I have been told I can invite up to three additional people to my session. It anyone is interested in viewing it online, send me an email at GailTverberg at comcast dot net.

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    New California Covid strain branded ‘the devil’ as terrifying variant MORE infectious

    SCIENTISTS have told the world to brace for a new COVID-19 strain which they have nicknamed “the devil” – because it is more infectious than previous variants.

    They also fear it could combine with the strain already identified in the UK to create an even deadlier virus. In a study which helps explain a dramatic surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US state of California, scientists at UC San Francisco said a cluster of mutations marks it out as a “variant of concern”.

    https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1402278/California-Covid-strain-coronavirus-variant-kent-south-africa-brazil-joe-biden-us

    The PR Team has outdone itself… this is fantastic stuff.. The Devil … hahaha…. maybe they could call it The Mother of All Viruses!!!

    Let’s go full re t ard and play the song ….

    https://youtu.be/wB9RSffVys4

    • Rodster says:

      No surprise that the crazed psychos are just pouring more petrol on the fire. As the saying goes you have to tell a BIG enough lie and continue to repeat it because eventually the stoo.pid will begin to believe the LIE.

      That’s how the world operates today. In the USA we had a politician by the name of Daniel Patrick Moynihan and he used to refer to the state of the American voter as the “dumbing down of America”.

      Mission accomplished, Pat !

    • JMS says:

      Awesome, the science dolts must be getting a monumental kick with all this public visibility. Suddenly they found themselves pulled out of the mediocrity of their offices/laboratories for the most showy limelight. Many of them must still be incredulous at how lucky they were! From obscure nitpickers to infallible television sages in just a few months! The Geeks Revenge. It’s the wet dream of the Nerd Class come true!
      May Dog confound them!

    • Xabier says:

      ‘The Devil’: fine scientific language there!

      So that is what they have come down to, simply yelling ‘Devils are after you!’?

      We can see why such care has been taken to destroy the quality of public education over the last decade or two.

    • Ed says:

      We don’t need more infectious we need more fatal. Maybe instead of devil we call it busybody. FE I am loosing faith in the Elders they need to release batch number 2.

  42. MM says:

    If a friend asks me: what is ging on.
    I say: google for thermodynamics.
    My friend will get about 1.5 Million results.
    My friend will never ever come to the conclusions of “short on oil” “Gail Tverberg” “RE” “MEGACANCER” “Ugo Bardi” “Tim Morgan ” “Mr. Heinberg” “MM”

    Ok it was fun, thanks for the fish!

  43. Lidia17 says:

    Justin Trudeau: “new variants are being developed” (16sec.)
    https://youtu.be/hp0-nI0wXSI

    • A person wonders if they are really being developed.

    • Rodster says:

      They have to keep the fear, panic and hysteria at a level 9 so the plebs won’t figure out that the wool has been pulled over their eyes.

    • JMS says:

      “Developed” LOL.This covid show certainly delivers!
      🤣
      More please!

    • Kowalainen says:

      A Freudian/Faustian mishap.

      See, this is what happens when halfwit lackeys are designated as herders. It doesn’t quite pan out running the planet with yahoo’s “in charge”.

      The masters for sure most cringe. But hey, as father, as son.

      🤣👍

  44. Tsubion says:

    Texas Ends Covid Mask Mandate, Lifts All Anti-Virus Restrictions, Allows All Businesses To Reopen

    https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/texas-governor-ends-mask-mandate-lifts-anti-virus-restrictions

    Effective March 10, all businesses will be allowed to open at 100% of capacity, Abbott said during a media briefing in Lubbock on Tuesday.

    • 1/ The whole scheme called off (for now) – Texans just getting the first nod (5%)
      2/ This will be punished shortly (95%)

    • MM says:

      What I see in EU is:
      a) We must get all vaxxed and then we will lift the restrictions.
      b) When all are vaxxed we will see a reduction in cases
      c) when the cases are down your freedom is back

      locgical fallacies:
      When the cases go down the vaxx works
      When the cases go down witthout vaxxing, Houston,we have a problem.
      (This is called seasonal respieratory disease)
      Ergo:
      We must force the vaccination curve aheaed of natural decaqy curve to maintain order

      We will see.
      From what I know: the higher the lie, the lower you fall. sorry, no mercy.

      • Rodster says:

        And that is a good summation of the crazed psychos who are pushing this “Scamdemic”. Eventually people will figure it out, at least I hope.

        • MM says:

          From my latest cab ride I would say you are right.
          From “pitch fork sales” in my district I yould say you are not right.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It is important that the Elders finish the job before the CovIDIOTS wake up to what is happening…

        That’s why I think we have not got much longer till the Great Reveal…. the Leak says Q4…

      • Perhaps we will be surprised in the sense of derailment of the original script. Updating the previous information: Austria+Denmark+Israel to work on their own vaccine ; apart from buying and licensing Russian / Chinese stuff, which is happening in several EU countries already..

        So, there is definitively some “rational” agenda behind – perhaps it forks on favoring the mere restriction movement (pass) function for now vs accelerated death rate goal. So, the latter goal being denied (for now) in certain countries.

        The correlation is just too strong with countries traditionally enjoying some degree of autonomous rule (or perhaps just faction adherence) – to be random happenstance in this matter..

        • Xabier says:

          Total digitised control and conformity with definition of an out-group of ‘Anti-Vaxxers’, the new Jews/ security threat – seems to be the primary aim at present.

          If some people are killed by the pseudo and traditional vaccines in the short-term all well and good as far as they are concerned, but it is not a priority with the Cabal for now.

          Selection, elimination, and denial of fertility, etc, can come later once the national concentration camp has been erected and the electrified wire turned on.

          The template is clearly that of German behaviour in the Occupied countries in WW2, stage by stage.

          This varied a little, of course, from country to country.

          Very good quote from an inmate of the Warsaw Ghetto and Auschwitz:

          ‘They never stopped, always new regulations, shouting, you never had time to reflect, they wanted to break you down first.’

          That is just where we are now: the corrupt MSM taking the place of the shouting, bullying, lying SS.

          National politicians are mostly merely the governors of Occupied provinces, with some autonomy but centrally directed as to the basic aim of policy.

          The level of lying by ministers here in the UK is outrageous: but of course this is just what they did over Iraq, Syria and Russia – now, it’s being turned on the British people as a whole.

          What begins in lies and the suspension of basic human rights , ends in killing – always. That can cut both ways, though.

          • Ed says:

            Xabier, the Germans had an ideology had a cultural story. The current war has no visible leader(s) no expressed purpose, no ideology, no story. Killing people for not taking a shot is that really enough to turn the military?

            • Xabier says:

              My feeling is that they will eventually dispose of the ‘inessentials’ some way,but probably not use the military in any way,as they will simply not be needed.

              But they will be just as ruthless as in WW2: just witness what has already been done to poorer people over the last year,and the contempt for the mental and physical well-being of the populations in lock-down. Utterly callous.

              They are highly dangerous as it is ever more clear that this has been long-planned, internationally co-ordinated, and they do have an ideology -Transhumanism.

              Moreover, they believe that they are right, and the fully entitled makers of the future.

              As Hariri says, once the Transhumanist transition has taken place, the normal human of today will be as relevant as a Neanderthal or any of the other earlier hominids.

              Logically, that means eventual extinction – a nice tidy elimination policy.

              It’s a very ominous sign that the military in the UK are investigating ‘Anti-Vaxxers’ as a threat to national security. That is just a step away from imprisonment and camps.

              ‘Give a dog a bad name before you hang it’…….

            • Good question, but lets recap, there will be (already is) indeed a murky cloud of overarching [story] to be immersed in : the respiratory disease or failing affordability / supplies and general economic dislocation of incoherent origins and outcomes etc..

              In my book enough to freak out most people during ~5-7yrs intervals before needing to issue major updates to the plot.

              If you poll people most already don’t believe 100% return to pre event times is possible now, so it’s getting into general mood..

              No need for PO/OFW/Surplus detailed narratives..

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Then they will ramp up the false positives and say SEE WHAT HAPPENS when we listen to you!!!

      • MM says:

        This is the red zones vs the green zones concept.
        (mentioned in D.Orlov)
        If I was FE I would create a red zone around a spent fuel pond.
        We can all stay at our home officing in the green zones unless we realise that the world is based on matter and energy aka radiation.
        I suggest “google for thremodynamics” but who am I?
        One of 1.5 Mio hits will sure lead you to OFW.
        …and after hous of reading the forum you will encounter FE.

        Sorry FE: you do not compute!

        • MM says:

          Sorry MM, we all do not compute!
          The D Orlov video now has 10280 views.
          That does not even qualify for deletion.

      • Tsubion says:

        I believe the plan is to push people to the limit and then deliver unto them a savior – answering their prayers – if you know what i mean.

        The whole WEF program is so obvioulsy over the top dystopian. It’s all a deliberate attempt to trigger the “worthy” warriors among the populace.

        The Worthy will then have newly baptised leaders take them by the hand and show them The New World – The Promised Land – The Land of Milk and Honey.

        This land is the opposite of the Tranhumanist fever dream that our current leaders peddle. It is a land full of natural food and medicine – of balance and spiritual progress for the Chosen – just a rehashing of hippy sh*t for a new age.

        I’ve been tracking the rise of this faction for a while and they are gaining strength from day to day. Replacing alt media as the new truth tellers.

        Once the old world has been defeated – in the minds of The Worthy – people will let their guard down and accept abject poverty as a virtue. They accepted being muzzled, probed, and jabbed. They will accept soma and essential work only lives next.

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