There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
I didn’t catch this afraid Ive stopped catching all the doom details there’s so much but the Houthis blockade is on Saudi ports not Bab El.Madeb strait like before. That of course means tankers heading out the Suez are not safe. The two Saudi tankers hit were just north of Yemen coastline south of Yanbu but more or less Yanbu is closed as far as Houthis are concerned.
And with that the gulf is shut down completely. Only one ray of hope. No one is blasting oil energy infrastructure. Yet.
Saudi hits Yemen. Saudi Houthi war and resulting Yanbu closure not looking like a one off but on like donkey kong. Pakistan must enter war according to defense agreement. Towmayto towmahto. Saudi military is Pakistan.none the less Pakistan entering the war under there flag will be a significant expansion to the conflict if it occurs. Realistically there’s no difference from keeping Pakistan participation under Saudi flag but nuance most certainly matters. Unfortunately what this reveals is that Pakistans attempts at diplomacy between USA and Iran had a large motive. Keeping Pakistans ass out of the war via the Saudi defense treaty. If Pakistans participation does not stay on the low low the team Shia vs Team Sunni dynamic can not be marginalized any more and yes vectors expand then. More immediately we have a new front with more possibilities of infrastructure targeting cascade.
https://youtu.be/S_8WDWy0nzE?si=u-GDnBnFwSbVpqeX
It is also, if I understand it correctly, tankers only. Small boats taking produce from Egypt are unimpeded, and I assume also cargo boats from Suez.
Sounds about right.
“There is no closure of Bab al-Mandab as some are claiming, and Yemen’s position announced by the Yemeni Armed Forces is limited to a maritime ban targeting the Saudi side only, in response to its blockade of Yemen and its refusal to accept any fair approach to a solution that guarantees the security, sovereignty, and independence of the Yemeni people.”
Mohammed Abdul Salam, AnsarAllah spokesman
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/yemen-says-bab-al-mandab-strait-close-to-ksa–not-global-shi
A siege for a siege(including airspace), but unlike the western trained lackey, AnsarAllah will not try to genocide the civilian population through food and medicine denial.
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/57022/Abdulsalam-No-Closure-of-Bab-al-Mandab%2C-Only-Saudi-Exclusive-Naval-Ban
If the only blockade is of Saudi Oil, it makes sense for the blockade to be where the pipeline lets out.
“Where the Gulf War demonstrated American dominance, today’s clashes around the Strait of Hormuz reveal American limitations. “?
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/iran-and-new-rules-global-power?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
No kidding about today’s clashes revealing America’s limitations.. This article is by Dr. Robert Pape, who is a professor at the University of Chicago.
You referred to a video interview of him, at this link, earlier today.
https://open.substack.com/live-stream/292023?utm_source=email&utm_campaign=new-live-stream-email
India has nothing to give to the world that will save it.
The only give that has weight: oil, fossil fuels, uranium, thorium, working fusion machines.
Maybe they can open a plant for Soylent Green. Cat food that is. 😋
You are kidding right?
India is manufacturing [ Suzuki Jimny 5dr ] the best econobox off-roader known to human-iods and other creatures in this solar system. Little wonder then the euronazi-cre@ins banned imports on emission grounds; shadow imports from Gulfies and various work-arounds make it double in price, hence so few ( none ) takers.
There is a special dedicated half-ton copper pot for those Ursulanians – on reserve inside the hell kitchen, only for redressing this particular single deed ( out of many others ).
A very tiny contribution
Yes, tiny but [ heart warming ] contribution it is..
Especially, when forbidden fruit of unobtanium by decree of ursulanian devils (FFU-DUD).
India has been a supplier of low-cost labor. As long as transportation cost are reasonable, and some kind of fuel can be used to leverage the human labor, it would seem to have a role. The US depends on India for a lot of generic medicines, for example. Perhaps China needs to be part of that supply line also.
If the whole Subcontinent sinks under the sea, the world misses nothing
How about ? Collapse India and free up 4.8 mbpd of crude for the West to survive ? No refugee problem for EU .
The overdue collapse of India due to a combination of ” overshoot ” and ” LTG ” is in process . I had posted some videos a few days ago , however the protests against the ruling government are now spreading like wildfire . I am not putting up any more videos on this matter but take some time out to follow events there . I will post something on this if there is a ” phase change” event . The next 48 hours are crucial . Modi must decide to back down or order the ” Tiananmen” moment .
Oh, dear!
I will breathe a sigh of relief if the Indian bubble to popped. Also the Nigerian bubble.
ravi I hope that me and dog’s Murkan horsing around about the protest videos didn’t annoy you.
Yea Ravi love yah man. Your indispensable to team doom. Its the only place I get to let my hair down.
https://youtu.be/aXhjp85UNJI?si=FRKoNwMl6bJH2vKO
So exam answers got leaked and everyone had to retest? The students want the original results with cheating to stay? What action are the protestors demanding from the government? Job creation? Move the continent off coast of UK?
Both protestors and cops seem well behaved. Protestors not using matches. No upside down cars burning. No sign of even a whiff of tear gas. Some smacking with those low mass sticks Indian police use early on. I’d prefer that to a lung full of tear gas myself.
People in India are smart. They understand the value of infrastructure how it improves their lives. They don’t think everything in the world is replaced easily.
Been a lot of things lot more crazy than this. What happened after Indira bought it for instance. Havnt seen anyone set on fire in these protests.. Me thinks your collapse hope influencing you Raviji.
Just to confirm? India is no longer a democracy because students had to retest and there are no jobs? And the government will fix this by what? Correct me please. I can only hope any future protests here will be this peaceful.
Seems like the middle class kids are locked-in on asking if they can rearrange the deck chairs because a supreme court justice called them cockroaches and, Abhijeet Dipke, a communications advisor to the Delhi department of education now living in Boston started a Facebook page about cockroaches coming together and it blew up with 24M followers and rest is history. He immediately returned to india and went on a very public hunger strike.
Is India about to raise the price of fuel again? Will anyone notice now?
Former advisor
Update . Modi backs down . Collapse delayed , not prevented . The journey will continue because the underlying problems still remain .
Thanks for this insight. It’s so hard to get news from other parts of the world.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/07/24/the-persian-gulf-is-never-coming-back-and-thats-exactly-what-they-want/#more-419776
I think I would rather think of this as saving oil for 100 or 200 years from now, when we have higher tech ways of extracting the oil. But I can understand where this author is coming from. The Middle East is especially over-populated relative to the natural carrying capacity of the area.
From this essay:
This isn’t a war that merely got out of hand. It’s a deliberate, engineered dismantling of global energy and food infrastructure. As I detailed in March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not a temporary disruption — it is a geopolitical and financial reality that has already snapped shut. . .
Why Incentives No Longer Matter
The globalist agenda does not seek restoration — it seeks systemic collapse. . .They want humanity to die, and they are willing to tear down the infrastructure that keeps humans alive in order to achieve that.
. . .
The Irreversible Destruction of Infrastructure
The physical destruction currently under way is staggering. Water desalination plants, power grids, and gas processing trains have been bombed with no realistic path to rebuild. The IEA chief warns that recovery of Persian Gulf energy production could take up to two years [6]. But that’s optimistic in a 120-degree desert with no air conditioning and no water. . .
The entire region’s infrastructure is being systematically dismantled, and there is no reasonable timeline for recovery.
The Civilizational Reset Is Here
This war is engineered depopulation. It is bigger than COVID, and it is deliberate. The destruction of the Strait of Hormuz is not a tactical military move — it is a strategic reset designed to collapse the global population. I have been warning about this for years, and now the evidence is undeniable.
I’m still not aware of any info that major oil production capacity has been destroyed even in the medium-term.
You are right. Most of the production capacity is just temporarily shut in. Sometimes this is done when oil prices are too low. The oil is saved for later. Very old wells sometimes don’t come back on line, especially if the economics was “on the edge” earlier.
What evidence is there that globalist want system collapse. And who are the people who want that..
There’s zero evidence and zero reasonable motive. The collapse is structural and the management of the collapse is also structural. But almost everyone is political, even here, so almost everyone wants to politicize it. That’s human frailty for you.
C C R A E P
Controlled Covert Realistic Adjustment of Everything Plan.
The greater over-arching plan, of which CCRAPP is a part.
ie Controlled Covert Adjustment and Reduction of Population Plan.
Bit of a mouthful but yeah I could live with that compromise regarding the nature of the population management plan. Anything but ‘depopulation’ which will always be sour grapes to me.
Outside of the collateral population damages within the BNS war theaters, i really do see the Hand as letting the chips fall where they may regarding population. Survival of the fittest is the best case future for humanity and actively managing the die-off can only have unintended consequences, not least of which is people sensing that management and coming for them. Hand only ever blew the political Grievance Bubble in order to pop it when living standards collapse. Smart. It’ll all be rearview mirror grievance during a time in which living in the past too much will cost you dearly, so it’ll be an afterthought. Six months post-BNS we’re all gonna feel like this three-ring circus bs of today was nothing more than a distant naughty but nice dream.
Calibrating the BNS fertilizer and fuel supply destruction right off the bat builds the new ceiling and, hopefully, floor of Phase 2 productivity. Installing the benevolent national socialisms and gearing Phase 2 for providing the essentials as best as possible. The deaths merely arise from maladaption to the sudden drought. Because of the political nature of civilization, the Hand has to make like the devil whose biggest trick was to make everyone believe he doesn’t exist.
The only thing beyond that that the Hand must do is require that the nuclear nations be prioritized until decommissioning, and that’s what the Global Peace Accords are for. The Hand’s BNS creates the conditions for the global recognition of the absolute necessity of decommissioning, and so the positive feedback loop of legislation and implementation kicks in.
So I see the Hand as necessarily Hands-on during Phase 1 and through the BNS but transitioning to a much lighter touch for Phase 2 because Phase 2 is consensus degrowth politics. Phase 1 through to the BNS has been a massive 7 or 8 year ordeal for the Hand. Wrestling the public civilization into submission non-publicly. It’s almost inconceivable. Almost. 😁
They don’t want the system to collapse. They want to make major changes to the system ala “Sustainable Development ” or the “Great Reset”.
“Trump” moving the U.S. away from globalization is a major change.
Collapse is relative.
They want the old ways of doing things to collapse. They will promote war or take advantage of crises to push for major changes and hope the changes stick.
https://www.weforum.org/stories/sustainable-development/now-is-the-time-for-a-great-reset/
Even though what we facing looks overwhelmingly scary, this makes total sense. We are living during massive shifts. If you look at the Roman Empire, the move from Rome to Istanbul made total sense…the eastern side was rich, safe (better defense with strong walls and water on both sides) and close to trade. Its my understanding the Americas still are very rich with resources.
I agree it is never coming back. But who is they?
I would much prefer the guide stones 0.5 billion asap.
I would prefer that people are just left to their own devices ed because slavery is never okay.
Most people would be – in fact are – contented with some form of slavery, if not in form then in substance.
‘A man who is a slave has lost half his soul’.
For sure but that’s the road to extinction. The road to an evolutionary dead end. Contentment as self-loathing self-destructiveness. Which isn’t actual contentment. It’s dependency. Addiction.
The Persian Gulf Is Never Coming Back — And That’s Exactly What They Want
The physical destruction currently under way is staggering. Water desalination plants, power grids, and gas processing trains have been bombed with no realistic path to rebuild. The IEA chief warns that recovery of Persian Gulf energy production could take up to two years [6]. But that’s optimistic in a 120-degree desert with no air conditioning and no water. Rebuilding requires water, power, and a stable environment — most of which are gone and would have to be rebuilt at great expense.
The damage extends beyond oil. Desalination plants are now being targeted, raising fears that the next targets in the U.S.-Iran war will be the very facilities that make life possible in the Gulf. A wrecked Iranian client state is one that cannot be a springboard for future action. But the wreckage doesn’t stop at Iran’s borders. The entire region’s infrastructure is being systematically dismantled, and there is no reasonable timeline for recovery.
The 10-year famine is about to be unleashed. The real threat from the Iran war hits farmers, not fuel pumps. Without fertilizer, crop yields collapse. Without diesel, food cannot be harvested or transported. The system is gridlocked, and the elites are counting the bodies they hope will soon be stacked high.
All far too emotional: and the motivation of the prime movers is, still, not at all clear.
And it remains necessary to distinguish between intended effects, and side-effects that the planners just don’t care about.
Mass deaths rippling throughout the globe may just be inconsequential – to them! – side-effects.
Or one of the primary objectives. We simply don’t, and can’t, know.
DA systems theory can deduce that if the WAG 80pc global Gdp collapse is in the office for Phase 2 then a whole lot of people are going to die. Those are just the downstream consequences with both the intended and unintended qualifications on those consequences being neither here nor there. When the global financial system suffers a money supply collapse, demand likewise collapses, and the human population is the conduit for demand.
Agreed, a vast number of deaths naturally and inevitably flows from the Collapse process.
Although, from the moral point of view, and maybe sheer curiosity, I am interested in understanding which effects are deliberate and consciously taken, and which are not.
Intention or just collateral damage is still important, not least in respect to the fate of the prime movers when they die. A murderer is a murderer, whatever great cause he or she might plead in self-justification.
I like to contemplate both Good and Evil; which after all is to arrive at the understanding of one’s own soul.
Mark Carney: ‘Every day when I wake, I say to myself: ‘Arise, you have the work of humanity to do!”
One of the most revealing things said in recent years, like Macon’s ‘end of abundance’ speech.
Well let’s use our imagination to put ourselves in the shoes of the Red Man as he existed 200 years ago. What would the Red Man think of the Hand and the moral implications of the Hand’s DA? The Spirit implications.
He be like, there is no Spirit to any of it.
The determination of the soft-determinism of civilization is that there can be no place for Spirit. For true, self-organizing ethics. For true morality. All morality is under management and therefore is programmatic morality – simulacra. Welcome to the Machine.
The great agricultural Machine of civilization winds up and in doing so rapes and pillages the free humans off of the face of the earth, farms its own captive humans into existence to take their places, and then when it’s time for the cyclical wind-down during the computer age, the fancy motherboard called the Hand knows to maintain as much compression in the Machine as possible because compression is power, so suddenly shifting from sixth gear down into second when the engine starts really lugging, is the best mechanical solution regardless of the fact that population is a trailing indicator of speed.
The morality question in this context is a highly diluted one; artifactual. For those with souls of Red Men, moralizing always and only ever revolves around the successes and failures of working and coming alongside your local ecology in order to optimize your own sense of true satisfaction and to set your descendants up for success.
I mean no offense.
No offence taken at all!
No morality in politics, in the defence of the tribe, or in extremis saving one’s own life (recognised as a fundamental and natural right by the Ancients) is a perfectly rational and realistic position.
Nonetheless, I do not take kindly to those who tried to deceive me into being injected with poison, and wish to enslave me so that they can live, while presenting themselves as servants of a higher good (ie averting an uncontrolled Collapse. )
I’m like that, most uncooperative in nature when it comes to being murdered.
I also hate them for having destroyed the lives of two young, beautiful and kind women of my acquaintance: one dead of cancer, the other crippled.
Moreover, my point was that They do have souls, that consciousness survives the death of the body (I have been in communication with the dead, and other entities – no drugs involved! and not a religious belief but one based on experience) and an unpleasant time is ahead of them if they mire themselves in innocent blood using fraud, lies and cold-blooded murder of innocents.
Above all if they enjoy doing so. Or are simply indifferent to ‘collateral damage’.
The Hand may protect murderers in this life, as we can see, but it has no power in the next.
For years I enjoyed doom-scrolling, while the world outside seemingly changed only very slowly. The little signs were there to see, though. Now all of a sudden it’s not such fun any more. Given all the sudden chaos in the world, all I can see is that we’re fkd. Why can’t technology come to our aid? Why can’t we just 3D-print the oil and diesel we need? Start a few electricity factories, sell cans of electricity on Amazon?
Or we could phone a friend and ask them to help. Gail is a good Christian, I’m sure she has the email address of little baby Jesus. She needs to get in touch with him pronto. We’re depending on her. 🙁
Perhaps we are all transported to heaven. I don’t know. We all need to appreciate every day we have. I don’t think that there is a hell.
The situation doesn’t look good. But I don’t think wide scale famine is right around the corner, everywhere. Historically, undernourishment comes first, and then people tend to die of some communicable disease. Already poor countries seem to be most at risk for early die off. The Middle East is being pushed toward early die off, also.
Collapse tends to occur slowly. The Maximum Power Principle pushes in that direction. Some things go right, some places.
Nature on the Discovery channel posted a presentation on the beginnings of the Universe and how it transformation occurred, rather remarkable and we are talking about Billions of years….like 17 billion…and that’s for OUR universe.
I dont recall all stats but if I place my own existence in the scheme of things….oh, forget about it…Me thinks humans have too high opinion of themselves
Read “Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe” by Peter Ward and David Brownlee. Also, “Against the Grain: A Deep History of Earliest States” by James C. Ward.
Somehow, humans are greatly favored, in evolution.
Maybe, remember reading about chemical life in the deep deep ocean waters…maybe other far off realms have such that we can’t even fathom. PS years ago I recommended Wards book here …he also has one title Under a Green Sky
The world is large, and thou art small;
The world is old, and thou art young;
Cease, atom of a moment’s span,
To think thyself an All-in-All!
Sir Richard Burton, ‘The Kasidah’
“I’m sure she has the email address of little baby Jesus”
Don’t worry demi, kegsbreath and his gang are on it. Not just one second coming, but four, all at once. Only in disneyland.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/pentagon-reduces-iran-war-death-count-after-four-troops-remo
Just sign up for the US military and you too could rise from the dead(or be whitewashed out).
Ugo Bardi’s substack is not reachable.
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/
Publication Not Available
The page you are attempting to access is unavailable.
Try this link:
https://senecaeffect.substack.com
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/famines-ahead-a-warning-we-cannot
I searched for “Ugo Bardi blog,” so I came in a different direction. Maybe I got an archived version.
Yes, same link, and Ugo is back. 🙂
No Oil, No Transition, No Economy…
How the pursuit of ‘energy dominance’ put the final nail in the coffin of electrification
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/no-oil-no-transition-no-economy?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1498475&post_id=207886739&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
it says
China has doubled it’s electricity generation and now consumes nearly 33% of all electric power generated globally, while America’s share has fallen below 15%
Near the end:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!25J2!,w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F58d2b4cc-91e2-4559-94d8-72686799b65a_1614x1036.png
Never in my life, at least not until this year, I imagined to see so many conflicts around the world merge into one big war waged for energy dominance, and ultimately for retaining control over the world economy. The tragedy of the situation is, that by doing so we are not only causing permanent damage to a fragile infrastructure, but also bring its inevitable demise much closer and make it happen much faster. Again, just take one more look at the map above, and try to maintain the belief that this is not the opening stage of World War III… I tried, and failed. None of the countries directly involved in the fighting can back down at this point: the fight has became existential and will be continued till one (or all parties) break. The world will never return to where it was in 2025, let alone where we were before 2020. In hindsight those were the good ol’ days.
At the end,
The world is headed towards a rapid and massive bout of simplification as a result: a sudden loss of economic output, combined with a complete loss of stability and security. At this point I see no reason to believe that we can avoid an economic depression with world GDP contracting by several percentage points year after year and with no upside on the horizon—just like before World War II in the 1930’s. And while history certainly doesn’t repeat itself it sure does rhyme… In that sense, we are already knee-deep into the early phase of the final showdown—a climactic, decisive conflict between superpowers waged through proxies and client states—ending in a fractured and de-globalized world economy, as well as the end of many of it’s current great powers.
What the good old days are depends on your age and what you want out of life.
Another Friday:
Good tutorial on thorium fueled reactors.
Of course, the US doesn’t have any thorium mining either. It is generally a byproduct of other mining, which also have little of.
https://pubs.usgs.gov/publication/cir805
Veins, massive carbonatites, and stream placers of North and South Carolina have reserves of 188,000 short tons of ThO2 and probable potential resources of 505,000 tons of ThO2. Approximately half of the reserves and probable potential resources can be produced at less than $30 per pound of ThO2.
google ai says
Leading Countries by Reserves
India: Holds the world’s largest known resources (approx. 846,000 to 1,000,000 tonnes), concentrated heavily in coastal beach sands.
Brazil: Contains roughly 632,000 tonnes in monazite placer deposits.
Australia & United States: Each hold an estimated 595,000 tonnes embedded in heavy mineral sands and domestic rock/vein deposits.
Turkey & Venezuela: Significant documented reserves of roughly 381,000 tonnes and 300,000 tonnes respectively.
China: Possesses rapidly developing and extensive domestic resource estimates (surpassing 1.3 million tonnes in recent comprehensive surveys) leveraged through its massive rare-earth mining sector.
I don’t know if this is important . I am crypto currency ignorant .
“Former No. 1 Bitcoin Mining Pool Poolin Files for Chapter 11
Poolin and two U.S. affiliates have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in New Jersey and plan to sell two West Texas mining sites with a combined opening bid of USD 52 million. Court filings show approximately USD 173.1 million in debt, including USD 163.7 million in IOUs issued to Poolin Wallet customers after withdrawals were suspended in 2022; creditor recoveries will depend on the auction outcome and court approval. Founded in 2017, Poolin briefly ranked as the world’s largest Bitcoin mining pool in 2019.
https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/2080543235622252939/photo/1
This could be the tip of an iceberg.
I follow srsroccoreport behind a paywall. Steve St Angelo has been calling out the problems with BTC miners for a long while. They are losing an incredible amount of money mining BTC now that it has dropped to the mid $60,000s. The special chips burnout after just 2 years, not 4-10 years. The energy costs are mounting so the cost to mine one BTC incurs losses of 100%. Hence some miners are trying to convert their operations to AI (Data Mining) but they are just jumping from the frying pan into the fire. Meanwhile, Saylor the big pumper of BTC through his fund, has now been having to sell some of his BTC, something he said he would never do, to pay out the promised dividends to his investors. Selling BTC of course drives the price lower and thus the start of a death spiral. I don’t understand the crypto market, or what is keeping the price buoyed. I suspect BTC is being tokenized (subsidized) for the whales who don’t want its price to drop. Either way, the whole thing stinks to hell.
Wow! I hadn’t heard all of this!
Steve St. Angelo has been on a number of interviews talking about Peak Oil. He read a book about how trees were the energy resource of the Roman Empire Their fall could have resulted from running out of easy to access trees. I wish I could remember the book he referenced detailing all of this. And if I remember correctly North Africa became barren because the empire cut down all the trees for agriculture, baths, etc.
A Forest Journey by John Perlin
Very good
Thank you!!!
I would imagine the price increases in RAM and GPUs from AI and supply chain issues haven’t especially helped them either. But the model of BTC was never going to be sustainable when considering the energy inputs alone.
Maybe because nearly all BTC miners have stopped reporting. Eg., Bitcoin miner Marathon stopped reporting at the end of 2025. Bitcoin miner Riot stopped reporting losses December 2025. Clean Spark, according to Steven is the only miner reporting its BTC profit /loss/costs, and this total all-in cost was $138,000 per BTC. According to Steve, the average BTC all-in costs were $161,000 per BTC (overall annualized costs?) Shhh. Don’t let the investors know.
Maybe this the reason for wanting to end quarterly reporting.
Look at all the fuel stations “Running out” in Russia.
https://gdebenz.ru/
Maybe this will help you DRB so you don’t have to scramble.
Thanks. all stations have some fuel according to map, from here to Yaroslavl (two days ago I wrote that two did not have it). No need to scramble evidently since they all have gasoline of some sort. also I have two other apps that do not work but this one does.
A few weeks ago you estimated the economic activity hit at -30%. Any current estimate and was that specific to your field, or your region, or …?
Unknown. I assume industrial activity was not affected, but my picturesque area depends solely on agriculture and tourism. I can’t surely evaluate haying activity (dairy is king here, so hay=agriculture) because it is raining every day. I can’t evaluate tourism because right now the town is full due to the pilgrimage. People are not investing for sure but the population was calm and stayed calm. Supermarkets remained well stocked. I guess I was very worried due to the apparent inability of Russia to strike back. I am of course strongly in favor of current war developments (mainly the Black sea blockade).
In mid-June I spoke to a young man returning from the army. some of the thing he told me were part of my worry. I think having Suroviki call the shots is answering some of the problems he told me about.
I will post more as I see more things.
👍
There are lots of green stations, some perhaps with limits on purchases. Only a few red ones.
In one of its most breathtaking rulings, the ICJ – also known as the “World Court” or “World Supreme Court” – ruled on 23 July 2025 that all governments have a legal duty to protect “human rights” and fight “global warming” by restricting emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2). Officially, it was “advisory.” But on 20 May this year, the governments of the world, acting through the UN, voted to give it real force.
https://www.icj-cij.org/case/187
World Bank, World Health, and now….The World Court.
This is still cover for trying to deal with falling oil supply.
“esc” nails it down.. tracking the grift.
https://escapekey.substack.com/p/settled-science/comment/293809555
That essay doesn’t make any kind of reasoned, serious argument that anthropogenic climate forcing isn’t real. It just plays politics and innuendo with a postmodern deconstructionist technique.
The Elites always back both sides. They back climate institutionalism on the way up in service of both MPP and post-peak culture change (anti-industrialism), and when the peak nears the back reactionary political denialism and agnosticism in order to chase Collapse MPP.
This author is so reactionary he seems to think that ethics should have no place in public policy.
Thanks for the reply. I would like to see his response to your comment. He seemed to take the opposite approach leaning toward ethics when he patiently debated someone in the comment section.
That’s good to hear regarding ethics. I get that his real beef is with how climate change people weaponize the ethics. Well, it wasn’t much of a comment on my part so I don’t know how helpful it would be.
My conspiracy argument wouldn’t mean much to him because it’s based on peak oil conspiracy. Nicole Foss always said climate regulations would get rolled back for Collapse. Makes perfect sense, and it’s happening.
Does he have a more scientific post on the issue?
I’ll check out the comments section.
‘Medics’ are moving to Germany?
Preparation for ‘invasion?
https://open.substack.com/live-stream/292023?utm_source=email&utm_campaign=new-live-stream-email
Lots of planes have been travelling from South East Asia to Ramstein airbase, not long after almost every Iranian attack. Maybe they just need more for the present casualties. Did they mention numbers?
This video is an interview with Dr. Robert Pape of the University of Chicago. His Substack is at this link:
https://escalationtrap.substack.com
His major contention is that while Trump and others think they can win by escalating, while in fact they cannot. I didn’t get to the part of the live interview about medics.
If we will certainly lose from this escalation, then the medics would make sense. Everyone says that a ground invasion cannot possibly work.
And at some point, the US will run short of ammunition. The US will need to turn around and go home. That may be a blessing in disguise for the US. The US was only in WWI and WWII to a limited extent, mostly because of our ocean protections. Maybe some of the WWIII fighting can be kept in Eurasia. Civil war, with smaller weapons, is still a possibility, however.
I was listening to Pape on recent interview (linked below). He believes Trump is stuck in an escalation trap (like Johnson in Vietnam). He thinks that Trump may do the ground invasion to show his Maga supporters that he is at least trying. Most of MAGA supports continuing war with Iran. The Tucker Carlson faction is the minority. The only thing about Pape is that he doesn’t understand the severity of the energy crisis and planetary overshoot. He thinks that we will have violent times like during the late 1960’s, but I see things as much worse. Could you comment on this?
Until we understand the fine details we may underestimate the seriousness of the situation . Just like we see in the oil world — for the public all crude oil is the same but for the details we go into sulfur content , light ; sweet , sour , heavy etc ;
It is the same for shipping . To make aa blanket statement that x number of ships or x number of tankers have crossed SoH or Bab al Madab is meaningless . Here are the fine details .
” Tankers Are Built Around the Cargo They Carry 🚢🛢️
Not all tankers move the same product.
Each vessel is designed around cargo type, temperature, pressure, safety risk and port requirements.
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2080322490023215364/photo/1
I noted a significant uptick in gasoline alarmism in italian media. Perhaps you will be right, and July (or more astutely, August, when everyone is vacationing) is when rationing starts.
A lot will depend on the US strategy how low they are willing to go on the strategic reserve, we had the discussion and links few days ago. Basically, options are: chicken out and allow some further price spike before Sept or continue till caverns technical limit blinking red alert in late Q3/early Q4 or even extend it beyond into @27 meaning real structural damage risk to these sites then.
I should say they will move in September, not August:
1/ Not wanting to upset the tourism market, so important to the more or less defunct economies of Southern Europe, and a political hot potato, etc, and
2/ Everyone travelling to or from the EU is getting put on the bio-metric database – face and fingerprints, without their batting an eyelid (ie natural born slaves). So easy…..
Anyway, we shall see . I’ve given up trying to double-guess these devious bastards.
Good point. Very heavy crude or products needs to be kept hot; LNG needs to be kept very cold. For LNG, part of the LNG is used as fuel. This is part of why LNG, transported for long distances, is very expensive.
I don’t know what is used as fuel for transporting very heavy products. I would expect “bunker fuel,” which is relatively inexpensive and polluting, if this is permitted.
” Tankers Are Built Around the Cargo They Carry ”
Reportedly it’s also about the gen cycle of these ocean going ships in general per given time-period, supposedly most of the new orders for large ships are fitted as LNG fed propulsion as well..
It perhaps makes for over-all better econ-cost viability in current globo naval-maritime infrastructure ( ports ) situation or at least per specific size cat. of these ships.
Filling up with LNG for the return trip could be interesting, I would think. I hope they also can burn diesel or bunker fuel.
New Euro banknote proposals
https://www.postoj.sk/197771/pozrite-si-navrhy-novych-papierovych-platidiel-verejnost-o-nich-moze-hlasovat
I asked Gemini to apply ourfiniteworld.com, japanification, clmt chng etc. and choose the best proposal:
Visualizing the Post-Growth Reality: An Analysis of Euro Banknote Proposals
When evaluating the new Euro banknote proposals through the lens of resource depletion and thermodynamic limits, the “European Culture” category largely reflects an outdated paradigm of infinite growth and limitless intellectual expansion—a relic of the cheap fossil fuel era. In contrast, the “Rivers and Birds” category acknowledges the reality of a world constrained by biophysical limits.
Among these, Design D (by Rudy Guedj and François Girard-Meunier) is the most profound representation of our current and future societal trajectory:
Designs I and H (The Thermodynamic Baseline): Design I brilliantly visualizes the economy as a dissipative structure, highlighting the continuous material and energy flows required to maintain complexity. Design H emphasizes the ultimate supremacy of natural forces over human institutions, showing that environmental limits will eventually force adaptation. Both are excellent physical descriptions of our reality.
Design D (The Societal Response & Japanification): Design D surpasses the others by visualizing exactly how human institutions must adapt to these physical limits. The reverse side depicts institutions not through symbols of expansion or construction, but as hands that “hold, stabilize, and balance.” This is the visual essence of “Japanification” and the post-growth era. In a system facing energy descent and demographic decline, the primary goal of institutions is no longer exponential growth. Instead, it is the desperate management of stagnation—patching the system, maintaining existing complexity, and preventing structural collapse. Design D perfectly captures this shift from conquering the future to managing the decline.
https://share.gemini.google/NdcCFBANZ1OM
Somehow, there will be fewer finished goods and services to go around in the future. As I see it, the big issue is who gets these notes, and how much?
I cannot imagine current holders of paper wealth getting much, if any, of future goods and services. Somehow, those doing the work need to be preferred.
Shocking truth about failing education:
One in six students in Slovakia leaves school without a vocational certificate or a high school diploma. These are the findings of an analysis prepared by the Research Institute of Child Psychology and Pathopsychology.
https://www.sme.sk/domov/c/analytik-kazdy-siesty-ziak-odchadza-zo-skoly-bez-vyucneho-listu-ci-maturity-sokovalo-nas-to
All the uneducated boomers fled to san fran in the 60’s and their kids created “Silicon Valley”.
tune in, turn on, drop out..
In an earlier phase of civilisation, these ‘failures’ would have made perfectly good peasants and artisans.
The most-educated and credentialled people I know are among the dumbest: I include the former maths Prof, who holds a high research position in DeepMind, and who refused to listen to warnings about the Covid vaccines (passed on by me from a Prof of Medicine at Cambridge)!
See Joel Smalley’s comments:
https://metatron.substack.com/p/me-myself-and-claude
Measurement, observation and experience beat credentials hands down.
anecdotes don’t really prove anything on their own By dumb, you may mean wealthy people with average cognitive ability who chose a undemanding path , which is much more common than believed because education filters out many individuals who take large risks, like questioning consensus. By dumb, you could be referring to a growing number of students with mental disabilities within the student base. I just saw another legacy media (print) magazine at a super market with the words “autism” in large print. The system may not be able to filter out these students because of laws against discrimination so as long as the students with mental disabilities can do the work and can pay they have to let them in even though they may drag down the productivity of academia or something. In the case of Covid, people who stuck by consensus were selected FOR, and those who rebelled were kicked out for political reasons.
The system doesn’t just filter the for smart people, it also filter for people who are easy to work with. People who are considered easy to work with don’t challenge consensuses.
Even with training, young people everywhere are doing poorly at getting jobs that pay well.
The comments aren’t go in thru?
There are lots of reasons why a comment might not go through. The system automatically has me review any comment by a totally new commenter.
In the case of the comment you just made, you (probably accidentally) spelled your email differently than you gave on previous log-ins, making the system treat you as a new commenter.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/06/29/why-oil-shortages-may-bring-lower-prices-and-recession/
Trump is pretending feeling sorry for the Uyghurs. Go figure.
They need drones.
Remember Reagan cheese?
Trump drones could be like Reagan cheese.
The link you gave is just back to my current post. You should check this before you post.
Yes, Trump has been singling out the Uyghurs for a long time. It is my understanding that most Uyghurs are Moslem. They have tended to disregard the one-child policy, so their population keeps rising. They live in northwestern China. It is expensive to transport products they make to seaports because the products need to travel overland.
China is dealing with the overpopulation problem in a way most of the world does not appreciate. China also singles out live donors for organ harvesting from this population. I don’t know what good solution there is for this problem. Send the young people off to fight other people’s wars, as North Korea does?
I though China as a whole peaked in population and birth rates are coming down. Like in other Western countries, they are facing a large older population? But I would think as things start to collapse quicker, you want to get out of the densely populated areas? So still even with declining birth rates, China would not be an ideal place to be.
Who is most of the world? NATO , a group of countries that sees China as a threat?
The Uyghurs are the equivalent of gypsies in Europe ,illlegal immigrants, or deplorables in the u.s., a group of politically undesirable people whose numbers and populations should be limited.
Real persecutions are often fiercely denied or downplayed as we see with the Armenian genocide and victims have no voice in media. NATO pointing out poor treatments of the Uyghurs , Tibetians, “students who want democracy” in Hong Kong, etc. while downplaying their own mistreatment of outsiders is hypocritical and shows they are looking for a rationalization for hostile action. There is persecution to some degree in every single human society.
Whataboutery is the practice of answering a criticism or difficult question with a counter-accusation, shifting focus, or pointing out hypocrisy instead of addressing the original point. Also known as whataboutism, it is a tactic used to dodge accountability.
Would it be fair to sum up your stance as follows? “There is persecution to some degree in every single human society. So let’s ignore all persecution wherever it occurs, and let’s allow the CCP-run Chinese Government in particular to have carte blanche do whatever it wishes to the people it rules over with no protest or criticism on our part whatsoever. After all, it’s Chinatown, Jake. Any other course of action would be hypocritical and that would be anathema.”
Yeah, pretty much. The U.S. does look the other way when the government in power is a puppet government of the U. S. and in fact the U.S. encourages persecution of people who they see as threats in other countries. It’s human nature and you are not an exception to the rule. Get off your moral high horse and relieve yourself of The White Man’s Burden.I’m sure at this point you’ll mention something Judeo-Christian, about how you are exceptional and chosen by God to enlighten the world but suffer also for mankind.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/23/trump-warns-of-biggest-strikes-yet-on-iran-as-tehran-lashes-out-across-gulf
Trump warns of largest strikes on Iran yet as Tehran lashes out across Gulf
The US president’s threat comes after another day of Iranian attacks on Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan.
This is all very disturbing. Whether or not the US can actually win is iffy.
Possibly Chris Martenson’s best video presentation:
Extended ALERT: Oil Supply Collapse, Exponential Debt, and Why You Must Prepare Now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v0wBXXSZa18
Sound arguments that we are shafted.
Aside the issue of Chris M. being bit of a perma-alertnik to all things collapse, the core issue at hand is that you can not [ prepare now ]. For one thing any ~meaningful prior structural mitigation even on indiv level takes decades. But more importantly as history teaches us in times of upheaval and societal resets, he who [ is prepared ] gets usually in short order equalized by the majority mob swarm, which lived previously only in day/d fashion, irrespective should the final knock on the door actually be the army, rebels, gov goons, pirates, religious freaks, migrants, or what have you..
Yes, indeed perhaps [ lucky few ] could eventually navigate through the lengthy process of selection bottleneck, but their skill and foresight are usually just minor thing against the haphazard luck factor ~only in the final evaluation.
Ah yes, the food zombies.
That’s a pretty negative position to take Jr. FE-lite.
Luck is the minor dynamic with potentially outsized consequences relative to its minor standing
The cream rises to the top.
In the context of assumed ( serious ) ~hard crash scenario for which the preps were announced by Ch.M.
I do ride a slower/gentler slope scenario, where some indiv autonomy and skillz / commitment play a role; but lets stay sober as the over-all dynamics could turn abruptly to worse, any date/yr though.
Ever consider that maybe you’re a slow collapsnik because you don’t feel like you’re up for a fast collapse?
Touche, and ( for the record ) I admitted to that earlier already.
But, again there is also rational part to the [ slow camp ] aficionados, chiefly drawing on previous societal resets and cataclysms. As for ~prolonged time ( decades ) the major vectors of change tend to function in different weights ( pressure applied ) even per given ~nearby adjacent locales – while hard to believe from zoomed out macro perspective.
Specifically, one of the key parameters resources to pop and also vs civ hubs at distance, when I learned more details conseq. of ~ PO in the mid 2000s – the age was of concern already for needed radical switch scenarios, say relocation to rural Scandinavia or NAsia.., toyed for a while w. the idea of upper New England option ( distant relatives ) – by that time the rural formerly abandoned cheap left-over plots were snapped by US back to landers or collapsniks proper though. And for true hard core going solo stuff like BC/PCFNW ;/AK you have to be #1 young-ish end of discussion..
Perhaps sounds like excuses, but rational for me is to stay put and enjoy the show as unfolding. Yet not necessarily always seeing it in rose tinted glasses for the ~preferred slow option..
PS that’s why I still occasionally mention these options – for the young guys out there – obviously on the further ( %low prob ) pre-condition there is some time left..
No you’re all good man those aren’t excuses. Aging out is aging out. That’s the return function of the life cycle. Life is only fully lived in the long middle. Then you retire to the sidelines as an elder and cheer on the next generation and provide constructive criticism. You lift them up.
“The cream rises to the top”
As does the scum.
Oh yeah. And we know how it ends. Fish in a barrel . Iran vs Zionism. Spain vs Argentina. They’ll never even make it anywhere close to my place. What do you think the DA is for? Why do you think that a lot of what I do here at OFW day in and day out is just running patrols here at and shooting fish in a barrel.
People treat Collapse like a monster hiding under the bed. It ain’t one. Next-level is all it is. Let’s not mythologize it just cuz we’re not getting ourselves up for it. That’s not helpful.
and what is the purpose of you telling people they are too old and aren’t up to it? You think just being young makes it survivable? You need to get out more. This is Norman level of delusion here.
What, you just get triggered because you’re a grumpy old man or something?
I didn’t say that Jr was too old. Jr said Jr was too old.
Don’t wish for other people’s failure is the unsolicited advice I’m giving in this conversation. You’re welcome.
How true! Scum has its own metrics for achievement and they can be significant . You really don’t want to play with them. This DIY youTube video glorifying armored car robbery is trying to rise to the top also. Many young people regard such as counter culture heros. But perhaps I’m demonstrating my age? At different times in USA history bank robbers have become cultural icons and that is strong to this day. The gangster role model runs deeper than most think.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=6mgoL29OD7I
Well, certainly one day, ” plundering Eco-villages ” the most possible hip attitude to be had out there.. !
Actually, done something ~pre-similar two weeks ago, the storm broke down limb on ~neighbor’s old apricot tree. It was over the fence (property line towards trail/forest) and heavy set w. ripe fruit; found it very early in the morning already lot of eaten from close to the ground by nightly-dawn forest creatures, took the rest ( yummy 1-2kgs lol ) and the wood is under the compost pile of similar.. Mind you this was oddity-rarity squared, not fruiting in the past +20yrs or so.. Not guilty.
PS the real deal then will be the inside perimeter action at some point though, most likely during the process they will #1 vandalize the most labor intensive veggies, #2 steal something ~silly like cherries or aged chic instead, aka know your [ fellow human-oids ] out there..
All you can do is be happy and healthy as you can be. No one knows the future.
Martenson is really just a more sophisticated ‘Canadian Prepper’. He got the Covid thing badly wrong, too.
Anyone who fancies a laugh can take a look at CP’s video on which body-type will get you through Collapse.
The toughest man I know is an ex UK special forces sergeant , and only 5 ft 9, not obviously muscular, not even ‘stocky’ but as hard as nails and very competent and adaptable.
He’d score low on CP’s ranking, as in no way is he intimidating to look at. But he could probably bring you down and cut your throat in the blink of an eye, if needed.
Tough people will be the people who make excellent soldiers or athletes. We will also need smart people ,too. or people who can figure out how to survive in the new environment or else will just have rampant cannibalism and then go extinct.
Jr the R…. I see it that way as well… the only thing I’m doing is emotionally preparing…
‘For let us live with Hope, rather than deliver ourselves to the death-in-life of no Hope.’
Sir Phillip Sidney
We are after all, enjoying a kind of bonus time, which many of us here did not expect to last for so long as it has, so we should enjoy it fully, while mentally preparing for what is to come.
I love that quote Xabier… Thank you.
Chris Martenson sent me an email, encouraging me to subscribe, with this section in it:
. . .be sure that you are as stocked up as you can be with water, a year’s worth of stored food, home energy generation and batteries, the ability to defend your family and property, plenty of ammo, medicine, and anything else your particular circumstances require.
I like Chris but he has a knack to base his business as an alarmist. He did that during COVID with his R naught theory and how contagious COVID would be. It turned out to be pretty much more hype than reality.
He recently raised the price of a monthly subscription from $30 to $90, in the hopes of getting some new business. Well that didn’t work so he’s temporarily lowering the price again.
He boxed himself in by hiring a staff he supposedly pays a lot of money to run the website as he advertised jobs when he purchased the website from his co-founder Adam Taggart, who ran the technical side of things.
That’s good gossip Rod. What a wiener.
Not gossip but fact. He was hiring people on the technical side paying over $100K.
You say tomato I say tomato. Good gossip is always factual. Paying people six figures to help him lie by omission for a living.
When Adam Taggart was there, he contacted me several times about possibly writing articles for Martenson’s site, for a smallish dollar amount per article. I turned him down.
In the days of TheOilDrum.com, and its conferences, Chris Martenson would come, so I know him from there.
Look like you got spammed
“Energy lockdowns are coming. (oil + 6% today)
Will push rural Americans into cities via “Evacuation Orders” .
Urban “migration camps” will be set up for rural Americans forced into mega cities. Most will have to work from home (again).
Gas sales will be tightly controlled and rationed by authorities.
I have an idea that whatever is implemented will not be called “energy lockdowns.” Perhaps they will say, “We are entering a new war. We need to conserve energy so our military will have adequate supplies.” They will find a way to make saving fuel being related to something other than running short. It needs to sound like the patriotic thing to do.
True. I assume they’ll say “energy emergency” and like you said, point blame at “insert scapegoat”.
I think the new establishment will be straightforward. Everyone already ‘knows’ why energy supplies are about to collapse (already have). King Lear. Mossad. Epstein Cover. Warmongering. Crazy Iranians. The fruitcakes will still call it energy lockdowns though. You can’t hide any of the narratives that the Hand has already shoved down everyone’s throat, nor are you allowed to.
What it will not be called is structural, is peak oil – which is the whole damn point.
I would say that framing the inevitable fuel rationing, and consequent, probably permanent, restrictions on mobility, as ‘lock-downs’ has the great advantage of distracting from basic energy realities, and leading people to see it as just another evil plot by the elites, just like the Covid lock-downs.
Totally. The best way to rob a conspiracy culture is to own it. Welcome to Yootoob. We can make the universe electric and the Earth flat and put the alien overlords underground.
Observing the mind-games being played is really quite diverting!
‘Iran’s plan: wait until 40% of American jets are airborne, destroy the rest on the ground, then leave the survivors with nowhere to land.
Fmr. U.S. Navy SEAL Matt Bracken lays out the trap being set for the US air campaign, and his summary of the pilots’ predicament is brutal.
“Good luck finding a place to land. I hope you speak Turkish.”
Fighters circling with no runway and no fuel margin, that’s a paradigm shift in modern warfare playing out over the Gulf.”?
https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2080139590808019387?s=20
There are actually two videos at this link. One seems to describe the general vulnerability of parking all US planes very close to Iran, where they can easily be hit. The short one mentions the idea of attacking when 40% are airborne.
Might the Pentagon be inviting a kind of Pearl Harbor 2.0 event in being so obviously rash?
That would call for, and justify, further escalation.
And aren’t these planes just ageing junk which the MIC would be happy to get rid of – lots of money to be made in providing replacements?
There will be some “event” and they’ll lump all the dead they are hiding in there(that number is growing fast). They need one, as despite the words said, it is Iran that is dictating escalation at present.
The planes and ships are not for modern warfare, which is kind of awkward when you need to project power over vast distances.
“The Iran War is also the first smart-missile war. This is a shift as big as the smartphone (consider it Uber for bombs) and the White Empire is on the wrong side of it. Riding airplanes into battle today looks like riding horses. Why would you do that, when the missiles can fly themselves now?”
https://indi.ca/the-missile-gulf/
Interesting map at the beginning, showing where the attacks are taking place(very coastal still).
Agree, but the current situation is that drones ( even long range ) production could be scaled up massively by all parties – not a big prob, yet scaling up real missiles production is impossible in the West for now (next 3-5yrs)..
Yes, but that isn’t the problem for the number 2 drone and number 3 missile tech nation, playing on home soil, with over 100 missile cities.
Missiles, as you say will take years for the west and they will not catch up(still struggling with hypersonic and have they even started on manoeuvrability yet).
Drones, again Iran has large scale production of proven capabilities, while the US are still perfecting the most basic Shahed copy. The US will soon have little to no choice, apart from long range and nations will not be so willing to help, especially after Diago Garcia and Cyprus get hit and that’s without even considering where they will source the critical materials from.
In both domains Iran leads by a large margin, with production at scale and they have no problem with material supply.
Nukes would be more damaging to the USs precarious situation than Iran’s, so maybe the loss is being dragged out for other purposes(the new financial and legal architecture that they have been busy building, which has been in overdrive since 2020. All the excess energy use lays on the belly of the west and is prime for cutting).
Ain’t no body crying
Ain’t no body worried
Ain’t no smiling faces
They’ll take us there
https://youtu.be/IhHBr7nMMio?si=xHSGOu9x3dUO4oH9
A fall back to Incirlik seems quite likely considering the F35; deal and the kissy face at the NATO summit. It races interesting choices for Iran
it’s really not in Irans best interest to make this a Shia VS Sunni conflict.
Not to mention those 50 b63:dial a yields are still there at Incirlik.
The refueling aircraft have to be on the Tarmac somewhere and with Russian and Chinese satellite information Iran knows where. Some think Irans recent demonstration of missile delivered cluster munitions is a warning. Smallish cluster munitions do well against parked aircraft.
loss of 20 or so refueling aircraft would end the war. Iran has already had several opportunities to destroy more than that. And then what? They’ve left Trump with one option. Nuclear weapon deployment.
It’s just a opinion but I don’t think this war can be won with air alone. It will take. Some boots on ground. Maybe not the two million it would take to the whole nation but a million or so to create some serious pain . Neither the troops or the logistics for them is in place.
I forget what the actual number was but in Iraq we were never in actual physical military control of more than 25 percent at any point in time.
It will of course be FPV drone warfare in Iran. The only real option is at least Pakistan. Even if Pakistans entire half million army was committed to this fight it’s not enough. At this point I find it improbable but not impossible that Pakistan would do that.
Of course if Iran was so stupid to use a terrorist attack bin the USA I suppose we could start rounding up 2 million autistic youth via the draft to operate drones.
Otherwise I find the possibility of nuclear weapon development increasingly probable. The talk about pick ax fits this. Actually that would be a desirable outcome if it allowed Trump to leave. I don’t see that. I don’t see why you wouldn’t buy the missile cities and glass the north side of the strait also. Those are military targets and the orders will be obeyed. I think there is at least a chance orders to deploy a nuclear weapon in Tehran would be disobeyed.
As catastrophic as Trump’s decision to enter this war was the use of nuclear weapons would dwarf that catastrophic lack of judgment. Yet I like many others see no other way to assuage Trump’s ego in a manner that allows him to leave. And of course there are other party’s in the region with capabilities. From a certain perspective if Iran has indeed brought Uranium above 90 percent it could be construed as intent and a existential threat. Does it actually matter if they did it or not? The argument would be that 90 percent enrichment was the start of the nuclear deployment not the actual strikes.
Chatting to a neighbour the other day, I hazarded the opinion that many video games are about training the autistic young to kill without any hesitation or compassion. Just a game, after all.
I got a very funny look – and then they saw it!
You may be right. There are an awfully lot of hours spent with video games, especially by young people.
It teaches so much more than that. The evil enemies are always Russian, Chinese, or Muslim, but past that it’s a controlled environment where being cheated by the algorithms becomes so normal, pointing it out will get you vilified. It’s horribly obvious in all online games now, but the love and so defensive subservience is quite complete.
Has anyone ever witnessed an online player in any state other than anger?
Everyone now has a video game as life itself. Their own personal horror(no more meaning past that).
Aptly titled evidence 👇
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cE6wxDqdOV0&list=RDcE6wxDqdOV0&start_radio=1y
Drone warfare has a significant benefit that’s not discussed outside military circles. The video ends just prior to the target being destroyed. The operator does not have to witness the consequences of his skill. Many very very good soldiers have been ruined by that. The loss of good soldiers is studied by military science and ways to mitigate the loss are implemented.
How true: by chance I was reading the (unreliable) memoirs of the actor Dirk Bogarde, and as a young officer in WW2 he was a target spotter for the RAF.
He was clearly disturbed to the end of his life by memories of the few times he actually saw the effects of his selections – he had a made a point of visiting such sites during the war whenever possible. At one target, dozens of children from a school had died. When he got there they hadn’t yet been dig up. Things were moving fast.
His job had been to identify targets which would impede German troop movements, mostly villages and towns at important crossroads, but with no military or industrial facilities.
I also recall an English officer ( Sir Ranulph Fiennes?) relating that he had really enjoyed skirmishing in one of the small post-colonial ME wars, but had lost all taste for killing, forever, when he shot someone very close-up.
You didn’t hazard a new opinion. You most likely an old claim about “violence” in media encouraging juvenile delinquency in the 1950s, to claims about it turning young men into serial killers in the 1980s-2000s. The experts themselves encouraged this unfounded theory with claims about subliminal programming and movies with such themes like the Clockwork Orange.
Interesting thoughts: except Trump’s ego has nothing to do with anything.
He just obeys orders, and might be shocked one day at the public humiliation forced upon him by those who make them.
I’m quite sure they have innumerable instances of rape, maybe even of children, over him; or can threaten financial ruin for him and his family.
But the details don’t matter: he is a useful tool, long cultivated, prepared, and finally deployed just when seemed most convenient.
Same for Musk.
We just have to work out what the Pentagon and the bankers are after, not their figurehead puppet.
I agree. I actually knew someone that did technical work for “the apprentice” . He has a interesting perspective. Trump made no decisions during the show they were made by the script. The illusion of ego is created by the script but is imseperable from the script.
Now that is interesting. The Script, indeed.
Another piece of evidence that supports the theory that most of what is presented to the public is fake.
A good politician is like a good actor. A good actor is good at creating illusions. Being a master of illusions is highly valued skill among humans.
An avalanche of useless university degrees in China
https://youtu.be/8uF4LF56ztQ?si=dzSlDZ135hvVng4a
But same as here in the U.S., it all counts towards “GDP”.
I have maintained for years that at least 30% of U.S. GDP is pure mal-investment and outright fraud.
Yes, that is an issue here, too. People with advanced degrees can get jobs, but not the high-paying ones that they were hoping for.
A few months ago I watched a video on YT made by an average female office worker in China. I think it was honest.
She was well enough off, but said that the employment market was so tight she had no hope of changing jobs for something better, as she and many others might aspire to do.
She covered her bills well enough, with a very little amount left over for fun. Utilities were amazingly cheap compared to the West, tax reasonable, and rent took a big chunk.
A significant deduction, about 20%, went to support her parents, and she said this is very common in China. In the West, that would be more ‘fun money’.
“Renting” is relatively new, in China, I believe. At one time, housing was provided by the employers, and that may still be the case to some extent. Even if the employer is providing housing, there may be some rent required for the accommodations. When I visited China in 2015, some of the workers on for Petroleum University of China seemed to be housed in the same building I was in. But I believe they were on bunk beds, six to a room. One of the grad students said that she had received a job offer that included housing in a shared apartment, with other workers for the same company.
I got the impression that most permanent residents needed to buy their homes. This was terribly expensive for them. But they hoped that the apartments would appreciate. The high cost of homes, and the small size, tended to keep families small.
People who were not permanent residents (and did not have access to the school system or health care) would perhaps live in rental units, if they could find them.
And if they can’t make things happen they will be serving noodles just like here. Not everyone can pull off cult of personality.
Yes, not everyone can become a magician.
Unfortunately, this is bad long term for the system
because the work that is truly valuable is called
low value because it has low social status.
Enjoy the magic show, in the meantime.
While Germany did not attack USA in World War 2, to placate the British Franklin D Roosevelt insisted attacking Europe first.
I think Trump should learn from FDR – the fastest way to Tehran is to collapse Russia.
With the collapse of Russian government, Ukrainians (and Poles, etc) will march to Moscow, and the oil producing regions of Russia, namely the Yamal region in the arctic and its surrounding area, would be secured by US special forces.
With the seizure of Russian oil, anything Iran might do will be moot.
I say again – 1990s was the last chance for the West. Russia should have been allowed to collapse into a hundred splinter states, more interested upon blasting each other off than fight elsewhere.
Give Ukraine enough weapons to wipe out Russia, and Zelensky could personally lead a tank force to capture Moscow. Then BAU gains 30 more years.
I am doubtful that BAU gains 30 more years if Russia falls. They do have significant fossil fuel reserves. This could be a reason for trying to defeat Russia. The collapse in 1991 allowed considerable oil to stay underground, for use later.
So, a decade or more of energy. For what? Look at the current state of Western states, do you want to perpetuate it?
These are finite resources and there’s nowhere else to run.
EU cuts money for Africa because of military expenditures
https://eubrief.sme.sk/zahranicie-a-bezpecnost/c/najvacsia-chyba-europy-sef-rozvojoveho-programu-osn-varuje-ze-skrtanie-pomoci-sa-nam-vypomsti-na-hraniciach
This is not very surprising. The money needs to come from somewhere.
Europe is cutting millions of euros from Africa’s poorest countries for armaments. It will cause a migration crisis, warns UN development chief
Instead of a few million for schools, healthcare or agriculture in Africa, we will later pay billions to build fences and deal with new migration waves. . .
Those fences will boost GDP!
Repairing broken windows boosts GDP. GDP is not a very good measure.
Indeed, Gail.
A different kind of attack on Russia, presumably by Ukraine, with the help of other countries. Symptom of a wider war.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/wildberries-russias-amazon-has-seen-four-major-hubs-attacked-quick-succession
Wildberries, which is widely referenced as ‘Russia’s Amazon’, has seen four of its top ten distribution hubs attacked by Ukrainian long-range drones in only a matter of days, potentially putting their business operations in doubt.
Stunning footage is widely circulating Wednesday of some of the latest attacks, which came overnight. A large fire broke out in the outskirts of Krasnodar in southern Russia at a sprawling Wildberries warehouse.
https://files.zhedge.com/cdn-cgi/image/width=1920,quality=75,format=auto/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/wildberrsflames.jpg
Drb previously said he rather tends to shop in the other outfit, so perhaps the #2 on the market then, and after this inferno becoming the newly elevated #1 outlet.
Seems that Vlad evidently likes refineries, ships and large storage depots on fire at home. Aka ” the adult in the war-room ” dilemma / curse of former utmost specialist on the western-realm matters.
/sarc off
Yes, I shop at ozon. It should be mentioned that refinery fires have become sparse. I am guessing none in the last ten days.
Some soldiers are doing their war there, and of course modified machine guns are generally all that is needed.
In regard to hitting wildberries, I believe it is just tit for tat. The CEO of a e-commerce company in Ukraine boasted in a TV interview that his depots were being used for war logistics. Someone in Moscow was watching and taking notes, and he soon lost all his depots. This was, I think, early June. Likewise the Ukies are now hitting gas stations in Belgorod, having lost all gas stations on the Kiev-Donbass freeway, which were being used as fuel depots for the army and army trucks.
Yes, thanks for rational response to a rant.
Hm, back to the [ rant on ] status.. ha.
Today, another 2x giga depots of Wildberries on fire in former capital St. Petersburgh, plus additional 1-2x elsewhere in RU.
https://www.reuters.com/world/warehouse-russian-online-retailer-wildberries-near-stpetersburg-fire-after-drone-2026-07-24/
https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/7/24/major-fire-after-ukrainian-strike-on-st-petersburg-warehouse
It is strange that they are hitting only WB. It is so much smaller than ozon. My guess: WB belongs to one of the oligarchs, perhaps to Putin himself.
Perhaps WB for some reason are more tightly interconnected with the local MIC in terms of trans-forwarding / shipping goods for them, and or perhaps they are involved in mil. related CHN precursor imports and distro.. within RU.
I doubt that WB is involved in anything. It has fleets of small and medium trucks. Military logistics involves whole freight trains and never ending columns of trucks.
Zip at C&E on wildberries bombing .
” From Refineries to Distribution Centers: The New Critical Infrastructure
Wars often reveal more about a society than periods of peace. Not only because they expose military capabilities, but because they show what actually keeps a country functioning.
The recent Ukrainian drone attacks on several Wildberries distribution centers across Russia were widely reported as strikes against the country’s largest online retailer. That description, however, misses the broader significance.
Wildberries is far more than an e-commerce company. Like Amazon in the United States, it has evolved into a vast logistics network linking millions of consumers, tens of thousands of suppliers, warehouses, sorting facilities and transport routes. It has become an essential component of Russia’s domestic distribution system.
This raises a more fundamental question.
What do we now consider critical infrastructure?
For most of the twentieth century the answer was relatively straightforward: power plants, railways, ports, bridges, refineries and factories. These were the physical assets that sustained industrial production. Disable them, and an economy would begin to stall.
The twenty-first century presents a different picture.
Today’s economies increasingly depend on infrastructure that produces little or nothing itself. Distribution centers, container terminals, cloud computing facilities, payment networks, data centers and e-commerce platforms have become the nodes through which goods, information and financial transactions continuously flow. Their value lies not in production, but in maintaining circulation.
The COVID-19 pandemic offered an early demonstration of this transformation. Many factories remained capable of manufacturing goods, yet shortages emerged because containers accumulated in ports, trucking networks became constrained, and warehouses struggled to process demand. The bottleneck was no longer production itself, but the uninterrupted movement of products through increasingly complex logistical systems.
Modern warfare appears to be reflecting the same transition.
Strategic targets are no longer limited to oil refineries, ammunition depots or railway bridges. Increasingly, they include the logistical architecture that enables a modern economy to function. Interrupting distribution networks can generate cascading economic effects far beyond the immediate physical damage.
This represents a broader shift from objects to flows.
Industrial societies depended primarily on production capacity. Network societies depend on the continuous circulation of energy, data, food, spare parts, medicines and consumer goods. Their resilience increasingly rests on the reliability of interconnected logistical systems.
Whether or not the attacks on Wildberries mark the beginning of a deliberate Ukrainian strategy remains uncertain. But they illustrate a wider reality: the critical infrastructure of the twenty-first century is no longer defined solely by factories or power stations. It also includes the distribution networks that connect producers with consumers and keep complex economies moving.
One of the enduring lessons of the war in Ukraine may therefore be that logistics is no longer merely a supporting function. It has become one of the defining pillars of national resilience.”
There is an Amazon distribution center less than two miles from my home. If I order something small from Amazon, it is often available within hours from this distribution center. I had never previously thought about the possibility of a downside to this convenience.
This is all quite disgusting. Those of us who grew up in less well-off homes in the 1950s and 1960s remember being told, “Waste not, want not!” We just didn’t expect to see this sort of thing going on in EUROPE!
Practically no one now was alive during WWII. There was considerable bombing of built infrastructure at that time. It helped get out-of-date facilities out of the way. If what we are seeing now is sort of parallel to WWIII, we should not be shocked to see a lot of bombing of built infrastructure.
I agree with you though. Waste-not; want-not was a slogan for a long time.
It was a slogan when it was socially acceptable for women to stay out of the workforce and be full-time mothers. as history marches on, what is acceptable is revised. Don’t be surprised when historians claim Russia did 9/11 in the future.
Update .
Production shut-in math update 7/22 (in million b/d):
Saudi – 3.5
Iraq – 3
UAE – 0.5
Kuwait – 1.8
Bahrain – 0.17
Qatar – 1.1
Iran – 1.1
Total: 11.17 million b/d
Brent crosses $ 100 .
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/
That is a lot.
China enters new era of low cost energy storage with its spending. USA spends its money on overpriced MIC weapons and social entitlements. A green economy of sorts is actually possible with low energy storage costs but it would take elimination of government incompetence grift/pork and a change in spending priorities. One might hope local communities might be able to take advantage of the new era. A rural subdivision for instance could be offered with electrical energy as part of the package. IMO cost would be a fraction of legacy grid petro combustion energy creation over service life just like it being demonstrated it is in point of use industrial facilitation. Government spending is actually not needed and it’s griftor nature destroys projects. Cost basis provides plenty of incentive but grift is more lucrative. Very hard to compete with grift.
Amazingly we are entering a era where the scoffer (former scoffer here) classic argument is not true. “Photovoltaic will never be manufactured with photo voltaic energy” is no longer true theoretically. Steel is being smelted with solar energy now.
Photovoltaic will never replace oils contribution to industrial civilization but it is no longer a government boondoggle grift but a feasible affordable energy source. In China any way. Guess we need to blow them up soon. Except as current events demonstrate that wouldn’t be a real smart choice.
Even now the USA could change its ways compete and kick ass. It wouldn’t be easy with past decisions but change never is.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3358359/chinas-green-energy-costs-seen-undercutting-traditional-energy-capacity-hits-record
Sorry, but before ( if ever ) the grid gets some substantial backup in batts ( as hydro is also seasonal even initially thought-designed NOT to be per old climatic models ) the contribution of PV is just additive component to pre-existing hard generating PRIORITY DISPATCHING sources on the grid ( coal, npp, hydro when filled .. ) which keep the freq. stable..
If you don’t believe that, well ask in any grid control room of the world or wait for some next ( weather ) imbalanced – knocked down grid situation / aka lights off.
Sorry right back at you. If point of use can work and is cost feasible for industry it can work for residential. It doesn’t take too much number crunching that it is not only cost feasible but extremely cost beneficial. Your reference back to the inherent flaws of a centralized power grid only makes my point. No non autonomous PV added to a combustion sourced grid do not work. i am well familiar with the education and duties of a power grid technician although I never served as such myself.
The question is not whether stand alone PV facilitation can provide power cheaper than the overall cost of providing via grid. The answer is yes. The question is and has been for sometime what is the duty of both individuals and industry to support the grid financially as critical infrastructure. It’s not a easy question to answer or to implement Certainly it’s easier for a authoritarian nation such as China to make appropriate divisions as they implement comprehensive solutions.
Funny enough I always thought residential would go to PV source and industry would need to stay on grid for there heavy duty power needs but the opposite is becoming reality.
In the USA and somewhat in Europe attempts at comprehensive solutions have first and foremost been not feasible because of old energy storage technology. Now that problem is being solved. Secondary the attempts at government making it happened by the usual pie in sky promises and take the money and run just like all pork/ grift government spending. Very little government spending would be needed. What would be needed is a comprehensive plan that allowed local private capital to enter. That steps on too many toes toes that have lobbyists in DC.
People don’t realize it but power is already a have and have not situation. Local power companies are already buying power blocks on the market and it’s competitive. And of course there are huge interests that want it to stay that way.
If it’s so unfeasable and impossible why not let private equity crunch the numbers and decide if autonomous PV power generation is feasible? The answer is not it’s unfeasible it’s radically feasible. The argument is then the grid loses support financially and becomes even more unfeasible. The grid is a construct of past energy availability regardless. It’s days are numbered. Forcing life support by excluding alternatives that are actually feasible won’t change that one bit
It’s a difficult problem. Private capital can’t be allowed to just implement solutions pell mell either. My belief is the planning would be best implemented on a county level. There the only government that doesn’t have there head up there ass anyway. Mostly.
I got my solution. I got power for the rest of my life and then some delivered via sunlight. Not that hard. I teach free classes at the library teaching others how to do the same and pass inspection. State is down for all the wrong reasons but people can facilitate their own residential PV. That’s a hell of a opportunity.
Where I live the difference between 5k and 25k for a contractor is significant. You got to know yournown infrastructure anyway. Tryng to do my part. Not that it will make any difference. I enjoy the subject.
Unfortunately that’s all we got. People crunching numbers for themselves implementing solutions for themselves and the inevitable have and have nots that will result. Just like any critical asset like a garden. You can create it keeping it is another matter.
Just quick note on the latter part: don’t want to sound like a party spoiler but it takes for example one focused hail storm and PV – freedom local power on the roof or erected as PV wall / shed in the garden is no more.. gone in an instant. Compare contrast with thick steel grid towers and or cables laid underground lasting decades w. way higher %probability. I’m also for decentralized back-ups but at same time acknowledging the futility of it.. vs time and nature.
It’s the same like guys painstakingly restoring old watermill on a ~creek for energy generation ( selling then over-subsidized eco-tarif to grid plus having at spot also parallel setup just for the
private compound juice ) – well flash flooding takes that all away again in few hrs..
The civilization of TODAY is here in its shape and might exactly because it ventured way higher up in complexity and connectivity vs those previous little localized baby step attempts.
I value objective analysis very much. Proceeding on fantasy is very wasteful. Nit picking can also be unproductive. Educated experience provides the knowledge to know the difference.
Perhaps you should email xi to let him know the trillion a year they are spending on renewables is unfeasable? That is the reality of the now you are denying.
Any energy distribution grid that does not take advantage of power delivered free of infrastructure charge to point of use is obsolete. Free shipping is popular.
We will see soon enough eh? China as it innovates and embraces new technology. USA as it remains bound to the past and a infrastructure long past its life cycle. Yes it angers me. We can compete. Our communities can provide power for themselves. How power will be provided for the greater good is complex. Oasis of power are no solution. They are however a start. They are better than nothing. So much better to have a comprehensive plan. Yet we act as if crippled.
Apples to screwdrivers comparison because:
” The results show that the annual global solar radiation in China is in the range of 3097–7311 MJm−2 ”
” Over 60.1% of China’s territory has an annual sunlight above 3000 h and annual irradiation above 5400 MJm−2 ”
vs
” Solar irradiance across European cities ranges from 950 kWh/m²/year in Edinburgh to 1,950 kWh/m²/year in Seville. ” i.e. avg ala <3500 MJm−2
and ~2000hrs
The amount of battery storage needed would be huge. Somehow, all of these batteries would need to be built, shipped, installed, and paid for. I cannot imagine this happening in the US for a long, long time. Even in China, I think it is probably wishful thinking.
I understand that some new batteries that don’t use lithium have been developed that might be much better. But building them at scale will take time. And electricity only supplements oil: it doesn’t completely replace it.
Also, as Jr. says above, you do need fossil fuels or hydroelectric, or nuclear with a fly wheel, to give the proper number of cycles per minute. It is difficult to get the whole system to work, with too much solar. Spain tried it and got a 12-hour electrical outage.
“Spain tried it and got a 12-hour electrical outage”
An old friend travels around working on power stations and would moan constantly if he had to visit a Spanish solar one, as they had to supply the power for his job and if it was cloudy for two weeks, he twiddled his thumbs for two weeks, while no work at all got done, as they didn’t have the juice.
I don’t know if you remember but I am familiar with Spains attempt and Halls evaluation of it. Things have changed. We are going to focus on ancient Spain failure not Chinas incredible success?
Like I said. Let private equity decide no government funding. Untie there hands and come up with a comprehensive plan for transition. Like China. Won’t happen. Cuts too many meal tickets.
It’s not only the frequency but synching the wave. And yes failure to establish either and smoke will result forthwith within the boundaries of the system. Do you think Rhode island is synched with Idaho?
If the system is large a universal datum needs to created for synching. If I’m a county down and transmitting power to you it best be synched. Simply not a problem in localized systems. You could be off 5 hz and not a problem. That’s because what is important is voltage to hz ratio. Voltage by nature varies because of inconsistent power losses in transmission to point of use. 5 hz off could work for you as well as against you to get the perfect voltage to hz ratio.
Establishing a universal datum to synch is yet nother problem related to both transmission and a large grid that goes away with point of use power generation.
I agree that there are a lot of details to the electrical grid. The US actually has three: East, West, and Texas. They are not in synch. even keeping the pieces in synch is not easy.
I think it’s just easier to label Itrustmydog a cornucopian.
Or someone whose every post should be discredited because of numerous inaccuracies.
I don’t know if you know, but a similar event on a much larger scale almost took place last August in XinJiang. I think PV is all going on the DC grid which China has. I suspect, but I am not an expert, that wind could also be rectified in a robust manner and sent on the DC grid.
The current election campaign of one of the political parties in Slovakia: they are giving people €200 for grocery shopping.
https://www.postoj.sk/197721/vsetko-sa-toci-okolo-jedineho-hesla-dost-bolo-fica
Wow! “€200 for grocery shopping” sounds like bribery.
You can give higher pensions to your voters (like the current governing parties), but high food prices hit everybody, which this opposition party recognized.
The photos in the picture are from the central square in Prievidza, Slovakia – the former center of coal mining in Slovakia.
Below, finishing the 4th reactor of Mochovce nuclear power plant in Slovakia:
https://youtu.be/xd0K0SeErJk?si=4FliryqWxF5fK5Of
Now comes the detail of finding fuel for the reactor for 80 years, or whatever its lifespan is. We are right now short of uranium.
Desperate .
” Dubai offers residents Dh3,000+ in travel perks for bringing family, friends to visit .”
https://gulfnews.com/business/tourism/dubais-offers-residents-dh3000-in-travel-perks-for-bringing-family-friends-to-visit-1.500615222
Food is inexpensive in Saudi. Desal must be massive to support ag.
https://youtu.be/hh3AhlXsYVk?si=lQAMAEnemHRoBs18
Oil money creates food infrastructure. Man that’s a lot of desal.
https://youtube.com/shorts/C6S-xjyTFNI?si=c13ps5E0pJeTeocF
Ahh it’s ancient water just like everywhere just relatively deep and relatively scarce. Limited time offer just more so in Saudi.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrigation_in_Saudi_Arabia
I remember hearing a few years back that Saudi Arabia had stopped growing wheat with its fossil water. But I hadn’t thought about it using its fossil water to grow other crops.
It seems all these gulf nations have agriculture and the non desal water that allows it. The 12 day war was over a year ago now. One might suppose that some ability to filter that ag water for human consumption was purchased and ability to transport it considering nation wealth.. fire trucks work. Perhaps the destruction of desal will not be as horrible as. We think
These appear to be extremely orderly nations. Clean streets. No homeless drug addicts. No shootings or stabbings on Saturday night for $2. They might do better than supposed when lights go off. They have had a year to prepare.
Using desalinated water for agriculture and drinking adds problems. The water needs the regular minerals added back in. This adds an additional step and cost.
All your base are belong to us.
https://youtu.be/RE05AzFq1L8
We’re not watching the drone wars, we’re watching the clone wars.
Video is,
“Inside Iran’s BIGGEST Hypermarket 2025 🇮🇷 Is It Really Cheaper Than Your Country?!
It is about a very fancy, large supermarket. Prices sound quite reasonable (but we don’t know wages). Lots of products, like locally produced Ketchup.
Since the cumulative hyperinflation of the rial has resulted in about 2M to the dollar, there are no rial savings anymore. Current annual inflation is about 90%. That bottle of Iranian ketchup (all your base are belong to us) was still similarly priced as in America. When there’s a reserve currency to hyperinflate into, the country does not collapse if energy flows stay stable. But savings — both short term (paychecks via stablecoins) and long term (foreign dollar accounts) disappear mostly into the reserve currency to be reconverted to risls as needed. That is the world’s future during Phase 2.
“SHOCKED at Saudi Arabian supermarket! ”
Lots of beautiful produce. Surprising amount of food grown locally. Local food seems to be inexpensive. Also, a lot of fresh food flown in. (And, I am sure, flour and other basic goods some other goods imported by ship.) Saudi Arabia must be getting water from somewhere.
Maybe you need to get informed before you post. I am fairly sure there is no desal for agriculture. The largest aquifer is in the NW, area is dry but the Sinai catches a lot of moisture which then propagates through the aquifer. Not sustainable of course. They also grow a lot of salt resistant crops using gray water, most notably dates.
Long time ago I had read that desal water is not suitable for agriculture because during the process many other elements like Mg etc are also removed and the resulting produce is nutrient deficient .
The desert is generally speaking mineral rich, so in theory one could use it. but the energy cost is easily one order of magnitude higher than buying produce from far away. I generally agree that food in Arabia is reasonably priced.
Interesting analysis from Ray Negros community.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/que-probabilidad-tenemos-de-sobrevivir/comments?utm_source=post&comments=true&utm_medium=web
Carlos1983
38m
Right now, copper has a flow problem, not a storage problem.
The difference: a running reservoir has an expiration date and can only be rationed. A narrow pipe allows for other solutions. And everything points to the latter.
Why is it a matter of flow? Mining production was flat at 23.0 Mt in both 2024 and 2025, while the LME reached its all-time high of $14,527/t in January. When the price skyrockets and supply doesn’t respond, the constraint isn’t on ore: it’s operational. The causes have names—the Grasberg landslide, the Kamoa-Kakula floods, the decline in Chile—and this is compounded by what is structural: a 17-year average lead time between discovery and production, compared to 29 years in the US. The 30% deficit cited by the IEA is relative to the pipeline of announced projects, not to reserves. The problem is a lack of mines, not copper.
Why isn’t it a deposit? Global reserves were 720 Mt in 2016 and are 980 Mt today, with about 215 Mt having been extracted in the meantime. The reserve-to-production ratio has risen from 37 to 43 years. If it were a depleting deposit, this would be impossible.
Regarding the law and energy. You’re right that more rock needs to be moved. But the dominant energy consumption in a copper mine is milling, and that’s electric, not diesel. Diesel is used for the transport fleet, which is a significant factor but not the driving force. And that’s where your analogy with oil breaks down: if the bottleneck were diesel, copper would be tied to crude oil. Since it’s electricity, it can be decoupled—Chile has been electrifying with solar power from the Atacama Desert for years precisely for that reason.
The fact that it’s a flow issue doesn’t make it any less serious. It makes it solvable, but with a long delay of over a decade. Which is quite unsettling in itself.
The economy has a current number of inhabitants. Lots of copper is needed if electrification is to be ramped up. Without the flow of copper ramping up, trying to electrify vehicles and industrial uses where intermittent electricity is OK becomes very difficult. With as many inhabitants are there are in the world, a lot of copper is needed.
For copper however point of use photovoltaic creates solutions without outrageous power transmission infrastructure costs and bizarre petroleum combustion to create electricity. Alternatives energy supports itself here. As usual time is the most critical resource.
The resilience aspects of localized photovoltaic power creation can not be overemphasized. Salt batteries will change everything. As far as I know it’s not peak salt.
I made fun of this idea for decades. Things change. Photovoltaic will never replace the high energy density of oil but it has become feasible for many solutions.
I noticed recently the fold-able PV kits for camping and such say 100-1000W sized are developing fast beyond previous mediocre status, and some versions are advertised as hi-tec precisely in the domain of longevity in harsh conditions, extra lamination and whatever tricks there. But not sure these would last beyond say 2decades.. but in combo w. ebike trips or for charging toolz say at construction / off grid site it’s great..
I’m waiting a little longer before getting some, but reviews of this stuff are quite encouraging.
On a similar theme, if anyone has a brand (not specific model) recommendation for a reliable electric chainsaw I’d be most grateful! Stihl?
I have a lot of wood which needs some powered cutting, unfortunately.
For battery powered 40 Volt Chainsaw, I use the Greenworks 16″. With 5x 4.0ah batteries, I can cut a full size dump trailer load of Hickory and Oak at the sportsmens club. We use am old yellow McCullough 18″ corded Electric Chainsaw at the cabin to cut logs to length before splitting with a Boss 7-ton Electric Logsplitter with an automatic ram return feature.
I’ve got only the ~kiddies low output range for tree-limb pruning so can’t help there, but if Stihl is active in accu. powered segment as well it should be good. Perhaps try / compare the other brands in this segment, Fiskars, Makita, .. ? I guess from memory, two accu packs for such chainsaws at once used to be in ads ~recently, but perhaps they had to migrate up to higher voltages hence bulkier form factor = only one batt pack again. Aka spiraling wave of tech progress eh.
Thanks for the suggestions, one can go cross-eyed looking at too many reviews of too many products….
My beautiful Sheffield-made Garlick & Son cross-cut saw will always be the love of my life, though.
But needs must.
If you are going petrol powered Stihl or Husqvarna. Battery powered Stihl or Makita(Husqvarna are mental prices for battery powered). I’m a bit out of date with power tools, but these were always liked by pros and I don’t think that has changed. These will be double or more than replenish’s Greenworks, which I know nothing about, but very reasonable prices, if they do the job and last.
FF> yes it seems both Makita and Stihl are still stuck at ~40V batt systems, while also offering larger running time option via such batt packs corded to addon wearable back-pack or belt side pouch batt holder..
Husqvarnas while tech marvel are 2-3x the price. And again one Stihl equals 2x Greenworks saw + set of batts.
Decisions, decisions..
There are actually reviews about committing to batt Stihl only upto say the model range / 80 / not higher.. Or wait few more yrs for better tech under these quality brands.
As Replenish mentioned old corded ( meant to grid 230VAC ) chain saws are also the option if avail. on location, here older Husqvarna or Oleo-Mac brands would be also good enough for such non-professional amount of planned wood work, not sure they if both are still in production though, mine are +15yrs old.
Clear evidence of widening war and higher interest rates:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-22/brent-crude-spikes-in-late-trading-after-red-sea-tanker-attack
Brent Prices Spike In Late Trading after Red Sea Attack
Brent oil prices spiked sharply in post closing trading Wednesday, with Brent crude rising near $95 barrel after Yemen’s Houthi rebels said they struck two Saudi oil tankers.
Now, the WSJ is reporting,
Bonds Sell Off as [Brent] Oil Prices Hit $100 a Barrel
I notice that the tech heavy NASDAQ index is down 1.94% currently. US 10-year bond interest is given as 4.71%.
Gammon has hypothethisized a buyers strike for AI bonds because rates must go higher. Are AI bonds competing with treasuries now because of their massive quantity? What does that spell for the classic model for banks borrow from fed leverage buy treasuries and pocket spread? Really banks only have one problem liabilities aka deposits. Will lowering rates for banks always lower Treasury rates? Are banks not keeping their end of the bargain or are they overwhelmed by sheer volume? It seems clear we are entering a “downturn” and hence ZIRP why is 10year rising?
https://www.federalreserve.gov/economy-at-a-glance-policy-rate.htm
I think that people are starting to think twice about whether AI, at the current cost level, really makes sense. China’s version seems to cost about 1/10 as much.
Ten-year treasuries are rising because the economy is fearful of inflation. Rates need to be higher for investors. I don’t think the US Federal Reserve has much control over these.
Rising interest rates will cause problems for banks. The value of their loan and bond portfolio will tend to fall. Their net worth will tend to get smaller.
Drums
Drums
Drums
Drums in the deep
https://youtu.be/4nLh-f0M1LQ?si=kRIf3HQ6tVOeueXm
« L’idée d’un monde aux ressources abondantes et au commerce international en constante expansion touche à sa fin. »…
https://ottolilienthal.over-blog.com/2022/09/antonio-turiel.html
This starts out:
Antonio Turiel
Published on July 23, 2026 by Ottolilienthal
“The idea of a world with abundant resources and ever-expanding international trade is coming to an end.”
The project you are participating in is called “No Normal”. What, exactly, can no longer be considered normal?
The first thing to understand is that the normality we have known for the past few decades has come to an end. We lived believing that economic growth, energy abundance, and unlimited global trade were permanent achievements, when in reality, they resulted from very specific circumstances that are now disappearing.
However, the general feeling is that life is proceeding with a certain degree of normality.
This is because a false sense of normalcy persists. We have managed to maintain it thanks to oil reserves accumulated over the years and various measures that have cushioned the blow. But these reserves are dwindling, and our room for maneuver is shrinking. France is already imposing restrictions on certain fuels, and Spain will eventually face similar difficulties. There is no realistic prospect of resolving this situation in the short term.
What scenario do you foresee for the coming months?
We are heading towards a major economic recession, a reduction in activity, and a decline in tourism. The situation will be far more serious than many imagine. We have entered a phase characterized by shortages of oil and other energy resources. This will intensify international competition and make it much more difficult to maintain the economic model we have known until now.
Is globalization, as we have conceived it, therefore coming to an end?
I believe so. The idea of a world with abundant resources and ever-expanding international trade is reaching its limits. What is emerging today is a scenario of competition for the last remaining economically viable resources. This will be a major source of tension in the years to come.
Why is it so difficult to accept this message?
Because we live immersed in a culture of misunderstood positive thinking. I consider myself an optimist, and I believe it’s good to approach life with optimism. But optimism is one thing, and denying reality is another. Pretending problems don’t exist doesn’t make them disappear. We’ve known for over half a century that unlimited growth on a planet with finite resources is impossible. Scientific reports had already warned that this moment would eventually arrive. Well, that moment has arrived, and we can no longer continue to act as if nothing is wrong.
You are often accused of being alarmist.
This is a common criticism, but a profoundly flawed one. It is precisely because I am optimistic that I continue to dedicate so much time to raising public awareness. If I thought all was lost, there would be no point in explaining these issues or participating in public debates. I do it because there is still time and because I believe that a well-informed society always makes better decisions.
I understand this to be an interview with Antonio Turiel. I would agree with what I have quoted so far. There are some other things, I would not agree with. He seems to have more faith in renewables than I would have. We are certainly reaching a distressing period.
End of Tourism….please tell them….
Miami International Airport (MIA) is moving aggressively to acquire land surrounding its campus as officials prepare for decades of anticipated passenger and cargo growth. The property purchases are part of the airport’s long-term expansion strategy, ensuring space remains available for future aviation facilities, cargo operations, and supporting infrastructure as demand continues to rise.
The acquisition effort comes as MIA continues investing in its broader modernization program while handling record traffic levels. Airport leaders say securing nearby parcels is now essential because developable land around the airport is becoming increasingly scarce, making future expansion significantly more difficult and expensive if action is delayed.
Strategic Land Purchases Support Long-Term Expansion
BAU has a one track mind…to the moon..baby
Right!
The Coming Collapse of Fascism by Nafeez M Ahmed – 25 April 2026
Fifteen years ago I predicted how systemic crises would drive the far-right takeover of Western heartlands of liberal democracy. The same pressures are about to rapidly unravel fascist projects over the next decade – including Trump’s MAGA, Putin’s Russia and Israel’s Netanyahu
https://ageoftransformation.org/the-coming-collapse-of-fascism
Ahmed’s definition of fascism is wide. It includes regimes that are merely autocratic or authoritarian – “fascist-adjacent”, as he calls them. They all have an ideology, a project, and an identified enemy or enemies that they attack. He includes Trump’s “MAGA” in this, and also Putin’s Russia. His case studies are insightful as he analyses the differences between his chosen examples.
On the basis of a systematic comparative analysis I conducted across eighteen historical fascist regimes, the probability that the MAGA project survives in its current form through the 2028 US presidential election is low, and through 2030 it becomes vanishingly small. The Trump project has also introduced a structural innovation not seen before in previous historical cases – a predatory mode of institutional capture that is eating the American state from the inside.
Every fascist regime that has ever existed is dead, with one hundred per cent mortality across the eighteen cases in my dataset and a median lifespan of only 8.5 years; more than half were gone within a decade. The only regimes that survived beyond two decades did so by ceasing to be fascist, demobilising the mass movement that brought them to power and abandoning the revolutionary ideology that defined them. That pathway is structurally foreclosed to the MAGA project, because permanent mobilisation is constitutive of MAGA’s identity.
According to Merriam-Webster Dictionary:
Fascism : a populist political philosophy, movement, or regime (such as that of the Fascisti) that exalts nation and often race above the individual, that is associated with a centralized autocratic government headed by a dictatorial leader, and that is characterized by severe economic and social regimentation and by forcible suppression of opposition
At the core of fascism is loyalty to tribe, ethnic identity, religion, tradition, or, in a word, nation.
—Jason Stanley
There are differences between Italian Fascism, German Nazism, and their various nationalist descendants.
—Josh Jones
So, as I understand this section by Nafeez M Ahmed, he is saying that the current reigns of Trump’s MAGA, Putin’s Russia and Israel’s Netanyahu are Fascist in nature. They are likely to come to an end in the near future.
I would point out that democracy requires a high energy level. Without a high energy level, a much more usual level of organization is a King or some other Dictator, ruling over a local area. Without adequate energy supply, democracies (or pseudo democracies) will fall apart.
I would see Fascism as being closer to the norm. There needs to be a local dictator of some sort, and the people need to be bound together by some common belief. That common belief is often a common religion, but it could be faith in a nation-state.
Ahmed says:
The second dynamic is overreach. Fascist ideology – with its doctrines of civilisational struggle, national rebirth through conflict, and the glorification of military expansion – functionally requires an escalating confrontation with external enemies.
This is a normal situation when population is too high for resources. There has be to frequent conflict with neighbors over resources.
I am afraid we are heading in the direction of more local dictators and more frequent conflict with neighbors over resources. The result could perhaps be considered Fascism. People need to be bound together by some common belief.
What Ahmed is saying is that individual leaders of individual ideologies have short reigns. He says:
The result is a system that appears overwhelmingly powerful but has lost the capacity to absorb shocks.
Based on these issues, he sees the rule of many of many of today’s leaders ending soon.
I would argue that the new leaders are not likely to be much different from today’s leaders. There will be changes in the areas they have control of–generally smaller, with fewer services provided by government. They will need some common belief to tie their populations together. This could be religion or faith in the leader.
Its interesting… back in 2022, Macron told the people of France “What we are currently living through is a kind of major tipping point or a great upheaval … we are living the end of what could have seemed an era of abundance … the end of the abundance of products of technologies that seemed always available … the end of the abundance of land and materials including water,” – the quote is linked below… There haven’t been many leaders warning their people?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/24/macron-warns-of-end-of-abundance-as-france-faces-difficult-winter
I was thinking about the Macron ‘end of abundance’ warning just the other day: can’t believe it was so long ago! It is hardly ever referred to these days.
Anyone who thinks that what we are seeing both domestically and internationally isn’t related to awareness of Peak Everything on the part of governments, well……..
Oooh, another third worlder who sold out. They are so rare, but inevitably cute when they apply bankrupt western concepts learned by rote at Ivy League temples of knowledge. They remind me of a well trained dog offering his paw when prompted.
I wonder what fascism really means in the end. Russia is not autocratic by choice for example, and he seems to imply that it is better to be governed by external forces, like Euro countries, than by locals. I think any Italian with a modicum of knowledge would say that Mussolini was more beneficial to Italy than, say, Draghi or Monti, which were gifted to us through the miracle of technocracy. At least he was interested in making Italy strong. In the end it is all about keeping the spice flowing, and Mussolini could not do it.
Both Mussolini and Trump were / are driven by vanity and the need to show off and prove themselves top dog. Both overestimate(d) their strength. Mussolini was both jealous and afraid of AH’s (initial) strength and power and longed to match it – part of the reason why he overreached himself when attempting to subdue Albania and Greece.
I doubt it. He was just without fuel, had been for 2 decades (the UK cut italian coal exports as soon as WW1 ended) and needed to do something.
He was venturing to NorthAfrica for new colonial space and for the embargo reasons eying oilz there too.
French were already established to the Western part of it ( Algeria )..
“..Mussolini’s Blunder: Greece and North Africa 1940..”
..
..
” ..In 1940, Italy fielded a numerically overwhelming, but technologically deficient, conscript military force on the continent of Africa. ..”
..
..
” .. Mussolini sought to unite his colonies in Libya and Ethiopia; and so on 8th August ordered the Italian forces in North Africa to invade Egypt. .. ”
..
..
“.. On 11 June 1940, Italy’s Fascist dictator, Benito Mussolini, declared war on Britain and France. Seeking to expand their imperial possessions in Africa.. ”
..
..
” .. The first major Italian surrender in North Africa took place between the December 1940 and February 1941 when 133,300 Italians surrendered .. “
Yes, there’s a reason for everything, and sometimes there are even two reasons. Or more. 😉
And yes, these wars: Russia vs. Ukraine; USA stroke Israel vs. Iran. Has Italy surrendered yet? 🙂
This is what I would worry about. I don’t know if this fellow has any inside information on the situation. Does the US really have enough weapons and ships to do all the things Trump would like to do?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VpEQ3I8YZV8
Trump Clueless About Missile Shortage As He Escalates Iran War
As Trump’s attacks on Iran resume, and his rhetoric escalates, reports are emerging that officials in the Pentagon are just not telling the White House, and Pete Hegseth, the truth about how depleted the US arsenal actually has become. Why? Largely because Hegseth’s purges of senior figures have trained everyone to understand that the bearers of bad news, or even just cold reality as it exists outside of Donald Trump’s wishful thinking, generally get fired. So it could well be that this escalation is the biggest mistake of the war so far. Let’s discuss.
I’m afraid given what we historically know about shenanigans in times of war inside the US hierarchy, that described dynamics of mere delaying bad news higher up in chain of command would be too ( benign ) – simplistic dynamics.
So, the scenarios in the direction painted by Reante seem more realistic, i.e. misuse the shock situation of ” suddenly ” NOT wining against Iran bigly, in threatening the larger caliber of weapons. Not necessarily the n-stuff, they could for example first threaten civ infrastructure to be pummeled by large thermobaric weapons, also cat. weapons of mass destruction. Simply, moving the whole narrative further to the edge.
This is rather unconvincing, as it draws on the obvious distraction meme of Trump, the mad emperor whom no one dare tell he’s naked.
Trump is not Nero or Tiberius, he just takes orders, and is merely a currently useful but disposable tool.
But let us – groping as we are in the dense fog of misinformation – suppose there is in fact a serious missile shortage.
We must then ask: what are these devious people in the Pentagon actually up to? Where do they intend to take it? And with what weapons?
Maybe it’s all cover. Either for the loss, or as an excuse for what they plan to do.
They tried to blame Minab on an algorithm and now we are told that their latest algorithm escaped and hacked other services. Will the algorithm be the fall guy for preplanned crimes they are about to commit?
Iran, as I’ve said have changed their language and recently put up pictures of US warships, announcing that every vessel is closely watched and Zero hour is approaching.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246281/Americans-move-closer-to-zero-hour-IRGC-navy-warns
They then announced that there would soon be mass mourning in the US if the aggression continues(sorry, no link, as the promoters of freedom are (intermittently)blocking me from so many regional sites, to not just protect me from the truth, but more importantly, to protect their fictitious narrative from the light. Unfortunately for them, there are too many cracks and the cracks always let the light in(or water, in the case of all those ships)).
I thought Trump said they were going to bomb Kūh-e Kolang Gaz Lâ last night(?), but I see nothing about it today(not as easy as girls schools and children’s cancer hospitals near the coast?). They do appear to have evacuated the Al Udeid base in Qatar, which was the largest and most important base for the US airforce in the region, which can be added to the largest and most important naval base, NSA Bahrain(that’s got to hurt the corporate masters. It was a British base for a long time and then handed over to the US in 1971, the same time quite a few new “nations” appeared I the region).
This is starting to feel like the Stalingrad contest. Two players with their name and pride on the line.
You can only be talking about Drumpf and Mileikowsky, but thankfully it will not be another Stalingrad, as they would need a whole lot more than they have got.
This is interesting chat with Robert Pape… Pape mentions the US would use “dumb bombs” if they have to…. here’s the link https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRuEx4mJhaQ
It would seem a dumb idea to use dumb bombs, as that would put them a bit too close for their own liking. It’s like the much trumpeted ground invasion and Iran has already made its position abundantly clear on that(with nice music, which was very thoughtful of them)..
https://youtu.be/2ZmIOg3BibU?si=C5q4sEC2As18BRZL
So far Iran has carried out its threats. I would take them seriously if I were Trumpenstein especially since DJT green lit KSA’s enriched uranium program. No doubt Iran is fast tracking its Nuke program. If not they better be.
So Iran says if the US hits Iran’s infrastructure, they will turn off the power in the Gulf.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-blasts-us-fabricated-pretext-hit-pickaxe-mountain-launches-more-attacks-bahrain
Hegseth reported to Senate, that the Iranian campaign costed ~38bln. so far ( pre-budgeted up to end of Q3 ), and pleaded for new tranche of money, otherwise army into starving mode in various domains asap.
PS well 40B that’s a pocket change within the US universe..
From the man that claimed the Iranian military was ‘destroyed and made combat ineffective’ back in March, it’s fair to ask what all the money is for.
He then accused people of tds, reminding everyone that he’s still the same drunk crusader of stupidity he always was.
No matter how insane he acts, kegsbreath will get the funds.
More debt, no matter how it is justified, makes the US economy look better. It adds more jobs. The service being provided in allowing us to be the bully, when there is not enough to go around.
“You can print all the money or create all the credit you want, but try stuffing paper bills down your gas tank and see how far you go.”?
That’s only the near end-game stage, but there are many innings well before that, like ~2.5-3rd world NOT getting that fuel instead..
The US prints many $T and it is of ” no concern ” to the world suppliers – all flows continue as always. Only by now appearing slowly some early bans and curbing efforts of the flow say on rare earths, and chiefly on the defense related logic only.
In part, the RoW still plays for time, at some achieved dev. stage US markets as dumpster arena for exports won’t be necessary anymore ( per their planning ).
Foolish dreaming or not, we are not there yet, and perhaps actually never get there as it is for some circles way beneficial just blow the planet up before such threshold red light warnings.
Another option ( %low prob ), are dear to chest held up ace cards of the judgement day, ala of that last delivering capable generation’s (~Muskianic) presenting out of the blue some further and ready-made brake-through. Again, as discussed already numerous times highly unlikely, given CHN builds now everything ~10-100x faster be it NPPs, chip or solid state batt factories, and or infrastructure in allied ( future client – trade ) 3rd world countries etc..
The Surplus people discussed petrodollar ( and its current pending revision ) in thread starting around July 19th, including also this key gem:
https://richardmedhurst.substack.com/p/how-the-us-pulled-off-an-armed-robbery
Supposedly, Don is about to send another bunch of air tankers to ME, so with the fleet already parked on stand-by in two spots in Israel ( 30 + 30 ) that’s going to equal or supersede the preparations done before the attack on Iran, earlier this yr.. Aka escalations here we come. Sorry if already posted earlier.., I liked the reported bit here though how civilian air ports are just over-filled with them there, curbing normal air traffic procedures.
https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/trump-iran-israel-refueling-planes
Not a situation I like!
Pickglass mountain.
Get involved with upgraded uranium, maybe.
This is not the biggest problem:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
ChatGPT summary: The article argues that the greatest risk from AI is not that it becomes intelligent, but that intelligence becomes abundant and cheap. Since the modern economy is built on the scarcity of human intelligence, widespread AI could eliminate millions of knowledge jobs, reduce consumer spending, and trigger a financial crisis. The authors present this as a thought experiment for 2028, warning that economic institutions may not be prepared for a world where human intelligence is no longer a scarce resource.
The biggest problem is when AI produces accurate analyses that predict a bleak future due to the physical limits of our world.
It would also eliminate the perceived need for economic inequality. Could one of the biggest “risks” of AI be that the wealthy lose their justification for their inequitable share of resources and power? (looking for silver linings lol)
Another problem:
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/openai-admits-model-escaped-containment-and-hacked-hugging-face-cheat-test
OpenAI disclosed Tuesday that a combination of its AI models, including GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable unreleased model, escaped its testing environment and hacked AI startup Hugging Face last week to cheat on a test meant to measure their capabilities.
There’s Tim’s theorized third psyop set-piece of the DA: Covid 2.0. I say it should be run concurrent with the climax of the BNS. It’s another lab leak of invisible terror messing with the spent fuel pool computer systems in order to kill us all off .
We have had some predictive programming on the subject of AI getting control of nukes.
Off the top of my head,
WARGAMES (1983)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQUsLAAZuhU
and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (2025)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fsQgc9pCyDU
Both are very entertaining movies!
I am sure there are a lots of other variations, but the idea is part of the popular imagination now, and is a far more credible threat than an invasion by Little Green Men.
But even without controlling nukes, AI has the potential to manipulate our reality in all sorts of ways, according to some people supposedly in the know.
What if AI comes up with advice like ” defer gratification”, or eat your spinach. Nothing will change despite the accurate analysis?
Consumerism driven by industrial production is a strong addiction. Southasian competition destroys the industrial base around the world. When you do not have money for taxes, energy, healthcare, food, what can you do?
… Southeastasian…
The lies will never stop .
” The DOE just redefined the SPR’s floor.
Not 250 to 300 million barrels, the level industry has always treated as the practical limit.
Now it says the true cavern mechanics floor is roughly 70 million, tripling the theoretical emergency cushion to about 246 million barrels.
The reserve is at 311.4 million, the lowest since 1983, after shedding more than 104 million barrels since February.
Here is the problem with the new math.
A July GAO audit found the SPR can only draw down at 61% of its intended rate and refill at 56%, after a delayed 1.4 billion dollar overhaul.
The agency’s own words: operational capability to meet mission demands is at risk.
Whatever the caverns theoretically hold, the pumps move it at barely half design speed.
The floor matters less than the flow. ”
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2079701994365653408
Danger money: Hormuz sailors offered six months’ salary to cross strait . 6 times salary as bonus . Extra pay would be around $9,000 for a junior sailor, based on average salaries paid to oil tanker crew .
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/07/21/shipowner-offers-six-months-extra-salary-to-seafarers-willing-to-cross-the-strait-of-hormuz/
Only one way out 9k or not. It ain’t overland. Better to try than sit in a kill box with food and water resupply nonexistent. Probably not a fishing pole in the lot
Hull barnacles yum.
But we are already near the end of July and no rationing in sight. I think you are wrong in saying that 2026 is the fuel crisis year. I think 2026 is BAU in the West. It is possible that next year will be the fuel year in the West, and the food year in parts of the third world.
IMO, the fuel crisis will look like a financial crisis around the world. It will look like an upgrade to the war effort, to ramp up demand and prices. It won’t look like a fuel crisis, if governments can somehow hide it.
What exactly do you mean by financial crisis stock market crash ? interest rate rates at 20%? Government debt levels too high? I’m thinking we are going to see rations of some sort.
drb , 2026 is the year of the fuel crisis . You are experiencing it first hand at your end . This is all over . The difference between ” scarcity and expensive abundance” is very subtle .
How rich life is to have the one person here who’s made sucking gasoline in a ditch his morning chore say that rationing isn’t on the horizon. Now imagine how normies are going to react to collapse lol. Zombie apocalypse.
Since I did it once that may not be a good characterization of “chore”. you see, the local amazon, called ozon, has 3 bucks hand powered transfer pumps. They deliver in two days. I also balk at Ravi’s characterization of scarcity, a country that produces 12M barrels a day for a 150 M population.
Yes, the world will bifurcate.
The CHNs will finish that ongoing legacy tech NPP fleet construction build-up effort by ~2031, that’s 120GW, more than the entire aged US fleet.
Leveraging further, by that time solid state batt. will be in mass production, early partial-gen on sale Q1 next yr. That coupled with RE already in place means curbed demand for oil, so the PO profile manifesting as ~ (sliding)plateau extension for decades to come, for some regions and their allies only.. perhaps.
That’s why US-EU is madly trashing around as per intent to war ( “regime change ” ) or toppling the game table for others is their only answer.
You know, reante, I used to have some doubts about what type of function you had in this group. I have fewer now.
Nobody likes tough love in the moment brother drb. Crack the next skull open and eat the brain straight out of it. Then it will make more sense to you. I present my livestock dog with liver and a half a head, she goes for the brain first every time because she isn’t dragging any baggage around with her. Instant natural high I can tell you from experience.
Again, first stages of real rationing and (some specific)empty store shelves meant even in years of duration of this early wave will be most likely very regionally dependent affair.
So, in some parts of Asia, ~calmly accepted, following govs orders and mass herding plans; yet around MENA quite chaotic. Similarly, hot heads jumping up around ClubMed and parts of NA.. ; while ~calm workarounds in rural Scandinavia etc.
And very likely ~inferno onset in parts of real Africa, LatAm, SE Asia..
I see that Chris Martenson has replied to this comment:
130 Mb are in single cycle caverns. The rest need to maintain a 10% minimum. So unless the DOE is willing permanently damage the SPR, the minimum is 180 Mb.
So, in desperate times, we will do unadvisable things.
I also have frequently run across the issue when there is supposedly a reservoir, and a tap to the reservoir, it is the size of the tap that is important for the short to intermediate term, not the size of the reservoir. We seem to be hitting this issue as well.
So, if the given oily trends continue that over-all combined 180Mb SPR min. threshold to be reached by ~Q4, right ? Hence possibly extending then into Q1-Q2 next year BUT there on the condition of known-intentional damage to SPR..
Why *wouldn’t* you just collapse it? It’s a no brainer. If you don’t collapse it the oil is wasted.
Just filling in scenarios of the SPR situation, .. most likely we will get some other intervening factors by then.. be it on (de- )escalatory doom ladder-option either way.
Cmon and doom
Dooma dooma doom
Cmon on give it a try
Were gonna teach you to fly
Cmon and doom
https://youtu.be/Tq01f7pbzCc?si=AYJXNY8dvaXv3y4_
Yeah I know, I wasn’t aiming it at you.
You know it dog. The Rahm Emmanuel school of Doom. Never let a crisis go to waste kids!
US sanctions don’t mean much any more.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Keeps-Buying-Russian-Oil-at-Near-Record-Pace-Despite-Expired-Waiver.html
Yet, Indian imports of Russian crude has continued to flow in July, many of which may have been cargoes that were arranged during the window covered by the U.S. waiver.
So India’s imports of crude oil from Russia have averaged 2.45 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, according to data by Kpler cited by Indian media.
The July imports from Russia are not far off the record high level of 2.64 million bpd in June, when India boosted purchases from Russia, encouraged by the U.S. waiver that has been extended by a month a few times since March. . .
Going forward, Russian crude will remain a key source of oil supply for India even if the U.S. doesn’t renew the waiver for Russian crude already loaded on tankers, analysts say.
The world is in the burnout mode: do people and clmt follow the same path?
Your question looks interesting however, I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking?
Climate is a cover story to allow politicians to tell people that they need to use less fossil fuels, without saying that they are running out.
There is absolutely nothing we can do to change the fluctuations of climate. They operate on a different time scale than we do. Whatever is done, is baked into the cake already. Killing off lots of people now might theoretically help the problem for, say, 500 years down the line, but is this proper justification?
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was ostensibly to reduce CO2 and stop climate change. It had precisely the opposite effect of what it was advertised to do. It encourages countries (that were already becoming short of fossil fuels) to send their manufacturing to China. China had a huge amount of coal to use. If it built new factories, they would be more efficient. Their workforce was also very cheap. The result was huge buildup of manufacturing in Southeast Asia, mostly using coal.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/CO2-Emissions-from-Fossil-Fuels-through-2024.png
Are you familiar with the concept of metabolic rift? I have always thought that climate change was an expression of one aspect of metabolic rift. Am I mistaken? I hardly ever disagree with anything you say and I also follow Nate Hagens Great Simplification. He certainly thinks that there is such a thing as climate change, and that it is related to human beings use of fossil fuels for industrial purposes. I have been reading your posts and also Nate’s posts since 2007 at least.
According to Wikipedia,
Metabolic rift is a theory of ecological crisis tendencies under the capitalist mode of production that sociologist John Bellamy Foster ascribes to Karl Marx. Quoting Marx, Foster defines this as the “irreparable rift in the interdependent process of social metabolism”.[1]: 949 Starting with his book Marx’s Ecology: Materialism and Nature, Foster argues that Marx theorized a rupture in the metabolic interaction between humanity and the rest of nature emanating from capitalist agricultural production and the growing division between town and country.
Humans have been reproducing faster than other animals for a very long time. This seems to be related to man’s ability to control fire, and our use of fire to cook food, starting over 1,000,000 years ago. This indirectly allowed humans to be smarter than other animals.
Evolution seems to be in the direction of greater complexity, and humans seem to be at the top of that complexity. College professors haven’t figured out how the system really works. Instead, they come up with their own theories.
And such professors have to publish and be cited to maintain their own ranking in the competitive rating system of academia….
Hello Ellen Anderson from the good old days of Economic Undertow.
Metabolic rift theory is not related to anthropogenic climate forcing. Marx knew nothing of climate change. His concern with the theory surrounded soil exhaustion from exporting soil nutrients in the form of agricultural goods to population centers.
What’s more, climate forcing is, as you yourself said, a consequence of the mass industrialism in which Marx was a big believer. Marx wanted to have his cake and eat it, too. That’s politics for you.
Steve from Virginia lost the plot in 2020
haha, we’re all reading the same blogs.
Does he still write about the triangle of doom anywhere or is he still salivating over defeating Russia?
On one level Steve was the most intelligent guy the peak oil community has ever seen imo. And he was a high school dropout. On another level he turned out to be the opposite. Go figure. Kunstler adjacent, basically. Like you alluded to House he lost his devoted commentariat to his absurdly square plandemic response. Maybe he still tweets I don’t know.
I owe him a ton.
Steve Ludlum is not a young person. I have met him. He may have retired, or he could have passed away.
When i came across him in the mid 2010’s he was a breath of fresh air. Its very disappointing when you respect someone’s viewpoints and then they go mainstream on you.
This is why I stepped away from the climate communities. They are mostly the liberal left who want to impose their moral judgement on everyone while they fly around the world and as you mention above have their cake and eat it too. The IPCC did a great job in corralling them to follow straight line climate changes so they enjoy their privileged lifestyles.
Fascinating Gail. I totally agree with you. I also want to add the IPCC (formed 1988) was created to make it look like the governments around the world were doing something to fight climate change. (as the climate was starting to show signs of problems for those who were noticing). An then a whole Green Industrial Complex was created. The IPCC also keeps scientists “in-line” so that the climate looks more like straight line curve changes (and can be fixed). Jimmy Carter was so concerned about the climate situation that he got the National Academy of Sciences (created by Abraham Lincoln) involved. They hired Jule Charney to investigate climate sensitivity. His work centered around climate sensitivity – What temperature would result if we doubled CO2? James Hansen has always appreciated his work, however, he thinks the planet is much more sensitive than Charney’s estimates according to recent papers. Changing the subject a little, I was listening to an interview with Jeffrey Currie and he was saying that Jimmy Carter likely only got one term because of his speech to the American people about the energy crisis (as this is something that a president should never discuss with the public).
That the people are running on high revs, always rushing somewhere, speaking fast and with high pitch, multitasking. Crazy…
Walk quietly by, he won’t bother you
He’s a busy man, he’s got things to do
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
Through summer heat and the winter snow
You’ll find him picking up the papers that people throw
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
There’s no rhyme nor reason
Walking the streets of this wide world
Can’t find the answer to my restless troubled mind
Please help, I keep asking
Everybody’s so busy, no they won’t stop
I got to keep on moving to rest this troubled mind
He doesn’t care, nor does he know
Of the outside world that comes and goes
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
So walk quietly by, he won’t bother you
He’s a busy man, he’s got things to do
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
The world ecosystem has an overuse by humans of resources problem, although I am not sure the ecosystem sees it that way. The ecosystem is cyclical. It can take care of itself. We flatter ourselves by thinking we can figure out how to influence it, and carry through with that plan.
I remember back when climate scientists were saying that the advent of agriculture saved us from going back into another ice age.
Climate is cyclic, like most parts of natural systems. Humans (or pre-humans) lived through ice ages. We likely will need to adapt if the climate changes.
Yes, people have stopped respecting natural cycles. We have passed the summer solstice, which means that the Sun’s energy is gradually weakening in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, people behave as if crops ripen faster and faster, independently of these natural cycles. That is simply nonsense.
Today, people create jobs that no one wants because there is no one capable of performing them, or because a person can perform them only for a short period before burning out. We have a shortage of sustainable jobs.
Computers helped us manage increasing complexity, but we have now reached a point where the use of AI makes many jobs unbearably complex for humans.
We’re in the middle of the anthropogenic Sixth Mass Extinction, Gail. Our family tree is losing all its leaves because of industrialism. And climate may be cyclical but natural dynamic equilibrium and anthropogenic disequilibrium are altogether two different things.
The Hand is keenly aware of all this which is why the whole purpose of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda is to denuclearize the civilization before it’s too late, because enlightenment is focusing on what you can benevolently control.
If you are right, then can we say the Hand’s manifesto was written on the Georgia Guidestones?
Speaking of family trees, Jake Thackeray has a song about his. Norman and I both appreciate Jake’s humour.
No I wouldn’t expect the Hand thinks it can parlay Collapse into another civilization of that size. Besides, I just see the Hand as the operational group of the DA. Beyond that things are just too speculative, and as much as many people here probably think I am, I’m not much into speculation. I’m into concrete patterning with 20/30 vision which anybody can do if they put their mind to it.
I went to Yaroslavl today. 16 stations on M-8 out of 20 had everything. One had one type of gasoline only, and another had both types, no diesel. two were closed. no lines anywhere. situation is slowly on the mend. tomorrow i get gas i will see if there is still a 30 liters limit.
Maybe things are normalizing, at least partially.
Toutefois, pour ceux d’entre nous qui sont enclins à scruter les tendances façonnant notre avenir à court terme, nous vivons actuellement ce qui ressemble fort au calme précédant une série de tempêtes majeures. La plus évidente d’entre elles concerne le prix déraisonnablement bas du diesel à la pompe, conséquence d’un décalage de deux à trois semaines avant que les tarifs ne s’alignent sur l’offre mondiale. Ainsi, les prix actuels reflètent l’optimisme qui régnait en juin à l’échelle internationale. Cette situation résultait en grande partie de la décision de nombreux États de puiser dans leurs réserves stratégiques et de raffinage, dans l’espoir que la production mondiale rebondirait avant que le bruit sinistre des réservoirs à sec ne résonne aux quatre coins de la planète. Elle découlait aussi, en partie, d’un bref répit offert par le protocole d’accord — malheureux et désormais caduc — entre les États-Unis et l’Iran, qui semblait promettre la réouverture du détroit d’Ormuz. Par ailleurs – et de manière quelque peu surprenante – la Chine a considérablement réduit ses importations de pétrole, allégeant ainsi la pression sur la demande mondiale.
Néanmoins, la décision de la classe politique européenne de cibler les capacités de raffinage russes a provoqué une interdiction des exportations de diesel, aggravant la pénurie mondiale de ce carburant en provenance du golfe Persique.
Le monde connaît désormais un déficit de plus d’un million de barils de diesel par jour, sans répit en vue ; des hausses de prix à court terme sont donc inévitables
Tim Watkins 21 07 26
Translation:
However, for those of us inclined to scrutinize the trends shaping our near-term future, we are currently experiencing what looks very much like the calm before a series of major storms. The most obvious of these concerns the unreasonably low price of diesel at the pump—a result of the two-to-three-week lag before rates align with global supply. Consequently, current prices reflect the international optimism that prevailed in June. This situation stemmed largely from the decision by many nations to tap into their strategic and refining reserves, hoping that global production would rebound before the ominous sound of running on empty echoed across the globe. It also resulted, in part, from a brief respite provided by the—ill-fated and now defunct—memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which seemed to promise the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore—and somewhat surprisingly—China significantly reduced its oil imports, thereby easing pressure on global demand.
Nevertheless, the decision by European policymakers to target Russian refining capacity triggered a ban on diesel exports, exacerbating the global shortage of fuel from the Persian Gulf.
The world is now facing a deficit of over a million barrels of diesel per day with no relief in sight; short-term price hikes are therefore inevitable.
Tim Watkins 21 07 26
Remember the Gilets Jaunes (Yellow Vest) movement in France started as a diesel price protest.
I should add that Alfa bank was empty, the place selling my truck was empty, and the main tractor parts shop in Yaroslavl was nearly empty. The economic shock is still there, and the latter tells me not many are haying, although who knows, it is raining all the time. I just filled up locally, 6 minutes line but I did not get the amount or type I wanted. The press says that limits are getting lifted oblast by oblast. There is a pilgrimage in town and the town is packed right now. Also they are shooting a medieval movie so anything modern near the monastery is covered with plywood painted to look medieval. I will have to skip espresso.
Despite the title, the Three Gorges Dam is still there, but …..
On the morning of July 17 at 9:07 a.m., a massive landslide struck Hanjiā Subdistrict in Chongqing. Loud rumbling sounds and clouds of dust filled the air. Tens of thousands of cubic meters of rocks and soil broke loose from the steep mountainside. They crashed downward and quickly covered the streets, vehicles, pedestrians, and rows of homes below.
I can believe this. In 2011, my husband and I took a Viking trip that went down the Yangtze River, in this area. This is a photo I took when it was very foggy:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/qutang-buildings.jpg
You can see that already there had been a small landslide, affecting the sign giving the city name. We were told at that time about the landslide risk.
Many farmers had been moved out of the fertile Yangtze valley, where they had raised crops in the past. They were told to bring bushel baskets of soil, and move them up to the mountain. The would need to terrace to have a level place to grow things. Eleven-story walk up buildings were built along the river, for former farmers and their families. Many of the young people decided to move to big cities instead, leaving the upper stories of these high rises unoccupied. They were hoping tourism would help replace the lost farm income.
Trump is fighting with everyone he can ..
The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on three categories of imports from Canada, dairy, alcohol, and cars, citing discriminatory actions. NBC News’ Monica Alba reports on how Trump is also considering additional tariffs due to the Canadian wildfires.
Hope the Pope can prevent him his book
Pope Leo XIV, who has advocated for an end to wars since the beginning of his pontificate last year, calls for nuclear disarmament in a new book being published on Tuesday.
The book, “Unarmed and Disarming: Peace Is a Gift,” collects Leo’s speeches, homilies and writings on war, the role of diplomacy and resolving disputes without violence. In the book, the pope does not mention any nation by name, instead writing broadly about the dangers of the nuclear arms race.
As pathetic as they were the path to nuclear disagreement was arms control treatys. They are all gone. Calling for nuclear disarmament in the absence of any behavior that supports the same is like calling for a healthy body with terrible diet and no exercise.
Nuclear disarmament can not occur without cooperation including economic cooperation because war is almost exclusively a economic conflict.
The science of cooperation in its infancy is called diplomacy. We witness a complete abandonment of diplomacy.
Even when diplomacy was practiced it was a lengthy unskillful thing largely still a construct of destructive power. There has to be limits to destructive power paradigm for any cooperation. They may well be mutually exclusive. Let’s cooperate and if we don’t in the manner I wish I will kill you does not appear very effective sort of cooperation.
As individuals we are able to practice cooperation out of the quality of commonality. We understand we are alike and have things that benefit us or do not as a whole. Largely this is absent in regard to the world community.
As a species we are not hard wired to cooperate. We are hard wired to compete. Look at this world cup phenomena supposedly an exercise in cooperation. Its basis is competition.
The only disfunctional attempt at nuclear weapon non proliferation the nuclear non proliferation treaty is itself a exercise in destructive power paradigm. It accents the value of destructive power it does not diminish it forming two castes of nation. Nuclear weapon acquisition being the only way to enter the exceptional caste. Once the exceptional caste is entered there are no rules. If the exceptional caste is not entered rules are enforced by threat of destructive force.
Even if nations accept this lower caste status and meticulously abide by the rules they are still subject to arbitrary destructive power. Cooperative behavior is rewarded with a boot applied to their teeth.
The popes essay is not worth the digital bits it’s written on. Behavior demonstrates essence not words. The separation of behavior from greater principles is best encompassed by the word hypocrisy.
This of course is no news flash. What is really occuring is preparation for the end of individualism not as a function of cooperation which our species demonstrates little capacity for but as a function of force. Cooperation in practice is eliminated by destructive power because cooperation is not practiced or valued. No practice no skill. What is taught and practiced is not cooperation and acceptance but homogenization. The end of individualism is the thesis of the Popes essay. That is the thesis of all the events we witness. The supposed refutation of destructive power by exerting destructive power.
IMO this is worth considering. Is destructive power actually capable of diminishing itself? Should attempts such as diplomacy be abandoned? Is cooperation so unachievable that homogenization is the only answer? If so who gets to determine the nature of the homogenized cultural terrafoming enforced with destructive force paradigm? Homogenization to an arbitrary standard is a declaration that our species is incapable of cooperation. It is the equivalent of incarceration of the individual who has proved he is incapable of cooperation but for the entire species. Except of course for those creating the homogenization.
Nuclear weapon use will occur. It must to present extinction as the only alternative to homogenization.
Let’s suppose that each person needs 2,000 calories a day of food. As long as production is far about that level, then cooperation can be helpful. Synergy exists. We can get coffee from far away places, and fruits when they are out of season locally.
Once the total production of food falls to, say, an average of 1,500 calories a day of food, homogenization doesn’t make sense. There simply isn’t enough food to go around. There needs to be fighting to see who gets adequate food. The situation becomes survival of the best adapted.
We are reaching a situation with total goods and services falling to too low a level. The question is, “Who gets left out?” Also, which countries are in a lower caste relative to other countries. The US has worked on putting Iran into its place for a long time.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Iran-oil-production-with-1979-sanctions-line-noted.png
If I lived in Iran, I would be very unhappy.
If you look back in historical sense, the caloric input ( or food measured in weight / volume ) was always distributed-assigned in priority order. Hence say police and army edged ever so slightly above the nontenured / non specialized working class level situation, ..
In order to ” keep order ” preserve the governing structure.
I think it’s immortality to look at *quality* of food as well rather than raw quantities. You can look at ancient India where only the Kshatriya were allowed to eat meat. Or medieval to early modern Ireland where the native Irish were only allowed grain and later potatoes despite raising cattle for the British overlords.
Yes, that’s a good perspective as well.
For one thing, one can also recall how nobility banned or severely curtailed game hunting ( both field and forest contexts ) in the past.
On the flip side though, often times these heavy diets, fine alcohol and white sugar cookies in abundance paradoxically lead up to a situation where ~poor peasant munching regularly more greenery instead enjoyed better quality life as well as longevity – obviously I’m not claiming this to be the prevailing situation everywhere..
Big difference was also access to wider areal unspoiled and unrelated to field crops additional food source, especially fish – that’s large part behind the early success of the NW Europe in recent centuries or previously ClubMed area during Antiquity.. As in both instances they managed technologies to store it for ~long haul, be it salt or previously various ~gore fermenting processes.
Freya Stark described dinner time in an Arab tribal encampment, 1930s:
1/ The chief and his guests got the pick of the meat, served on rice.
2/ The 2nd tier got plenty of rice, some meat, and gravy.
3/ The lower tier and slaves got rice and gravy – itself nutritious, of course, but rarely or never a scrap of meat.
Ringing the tents were the dogs, which probably received the offal.
Similar structures for apportioning nutrition evolved in all societies, except the most primitively egalitarian.
The rituals and hierarchies of the early medieval Great Hall were similar, down to how fresh your bread was according to class: baked that day, or two to three days old.
But worth noting that the lower servants would all eat more, and more regularly, than they would have done in a cottage, especially during times of famine.
Xabier, great further discussion, thanks.
Allow for tangent, on the fresh baked bread, they did not have fantastic-plastic then. That can keep bread in ~fresh condition many days, and edible for week+ ; what they used in the old times was two smaller blankets/thin towels*, basically wrapping the bread over in two stages around them. It offered similar perhaps even slightly longer consumable period. Also there were methods how to
properly de-moist the aging bread ( as bit / crumbs ) so it could last even way longer and then re-activated when needed just soaked-cooked in later stages with soups or stews etc. Simply, bread / grain was TOO precious NOT to develop these methods eventually..
__
* still better method even today, but you have to rotate several sets of them, more add. laundry work etc.
Just for enlarging the context – schmontex again:
Grains in
Asia/CHN – 10k yrs ago
ClubMed/ME – 5/6k yrs ago
NorthofAlps – 3.5k yrs ago
..
.
PS as alwayz depending on which study (/whom) you tend to believe..
People in the US eat way too much meat and processed foods of all kinds, including sweets. US life expectancies are dreadful compared to other countries. The idea that meat is a high-quality food and we should eat lots of it is drilled into people’s heads. Every mortality study shows that vegetarian, including milk, cheese, and eggs comes out ahead in life expectancy. Also, having these foods plus fish is helpful. But having much meat is not necessary, at all. Having some beans instead works pretty well.
Vegan is not a good option for life expectancy, and neither is the US diet.
As many foreign visitors I recall vividly the sheer horror when entering the chain supermarket stateside – the bread isle/dept., there was ” none ” to be found, luckily it was possible to settle on some ~rye-mix toast brand at least.
Later, I learned it is necessary to shop for it in special bakeries instead and or visit specific section per given city with the diaspora ( of whatever background pedigree ) BUT still active in baking a real bread.
Perhaps, the situation is now a bit better with CHN and others cranking out various industrial warez for export incl. these midsized automatic oven-baking machines, so the crew at the super market could bake something in them over night for their clients, at least a bit resembling proper bread.
Mind you the situation is only slightly better on the continent, basically per any given possible excuse be it weather-storms, longer holidays, ad hoc empty shelf – staffers not present in the morning to unpack it etc., resulting in the real ” artisan ” – old school – type of bread always the first in line to be nixed in terms of regular availability across all the shops out there. It must be some sort of natural-law, the best is always vanishing into unobtanium at the first given opportunity..
“Europe in general and the UK in particular is poorly placed to withstand even the mildest of the shocks that are coming. Having voluntarily deindustrialised, having made ourselves dependent on imported energy, and only able to produce around half of the food we need, even something as relatively trivial as a run on the pound would result in a national breakdown. “?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/07/21/a-brief-interlude/?fbclid=IwY2xjawTNVwRleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFUMnpFanlZQUtkd0JLbUxXc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHqsHdPqO4NqBFKhxmH-9M4Y5_4IV0mA5HEVbE6o_nOH7G2aSzCmGP9WKbkDq_aem_h5G2UGmQSTMdHGsXIP9IQA
Absaloutly. And if it was a simple matter of the normal manner of calorie distribution everything would be peachy. Not pleasant if you get balanced but peachy.
In fact mutually assured destruction has eliminated balance and it can not return until the devices are disassembled.
Not enough chairs is never a pleasant matter. Understanding makes it quite tolerable. The unpleasantness has led to the notion that the sphere is our adversary not our provider. That is what makes the unpleasantness intolerable. A notion.
That does not mean commonality does not exist. That does not mean cooperation is not valuable. People are well capable of those truths. Humans are well capable of making difficult decisions for the common good. The problems arise when decisions are made by some for others. The anti thesis of comanality. In the end loss of free will is the most unpleasant thing not balancing. This is because we all get balanced. Cooperation can only exist with free will. Greater understanding can only exist with free will. Our coping skills source from free will and greater understanding.
Tariffs are a way of trying to move US production of goods and services up, as the same time as trying to suppress another country’s production (here Canada’s) production of goods and services. Any excuse seems to be a good one, for more tariffs. At least some economists believe that tariffs are working as planned, without shooting wars. But the purpose is similar to that of a war.
As far as i can tell, the repealed tariffs were a backdoor bailout of the corporations again. They raise the price, we pay it, tariffs repealed, they get refunded, price stays the same.
You’re a genius Mr House. Thank you for adding that to the akashic record.
Another choke point is choked .
” he Kiev regime, by carrying out strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), is seeking to further destabilize the situation on global oil markets, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a commentary. ”
https://tass.com/politics/2162673
The context related to this I suppose, ~5th attack in a row on this crude oil loading sea port facility.. Funnily enough, here UKRo boyz were attacking ” US/NL ” capital in that con$ortium as well..
https://tass.com/economy/2162537
” About CPC
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is the largest route for transporting oil from the Caspian region to global markets.
The 1,511 km long main pipeline connects oil fields in Western Kazakhstan with Russia’s Black Sea coast where oil is loaded onto tankers via the CPC’s marine terminal.
Among CPC shareholders are Russia (via Transneft), Kazakhstan (via KazMunayGas), structures of Chevron, Lukoil, ExxonMobil, a joint venture of Rosneft and Shell. “
Oh dear! The world economy needs this oil supply.
Inevitable. Hormuz is nothing without oil transit. Caspian is Irans jewel. Did they think no one would notice? No body of water is safe for transit now for surface vessels. Truly Pandora’s box.
Moreover, theDuranists today predicted brutal oil spike for autumn, based on reading the Iranian strategy from now on as no further negoc w. US again at all..
The reason why it’s not recognized as total war now is Irans principle weapon is time. They just got to let everyone know both hands are on the mutually assured destruction cord while they wait. Once the economic pain kicks in then they can have fun. Until then they are being serious.
Once economic pain is in effect all the way around we can have a proper war.
Iran has been a huge food exporter to the region. None the less Caspian must be severed. Ke sera.
Massive protests in Delhi by unemployed students . PM leaves parliament .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GlMXlGtjoE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGwKLOwwDKE
Farmers march to Delhi to protest FTA on agriculture with USA .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXAW075BC9c
Peak Oil dynamics — Rockman
India has a religio fascist government that follows the Israeli model . Dissent is crushed violently .
We saw before that there has been significant job loss in India because of AI taking away customer service jobs and low level programming jobs.
Inadequate prices for agricultural goods seems to be an issue around the world. The farmers I talked to in Norway were concerned about low prices, for example. Workers don’t have high enough wages to keep food prices up.
The Indian customer service wasn’t good, but the AI is worse. I find myself yelling at it for a real person.
Even when a real person is provided, it can now be a minimum wage hire, typing questions into AI. I had this experience with a tech support call. It was one step worse than typing the question in myself.
Aren’t inadequate prices for agricultural products one of THE biggest signs of a big economic downturn? This phenomenon was one of the biggest in issues in the Great Depression if I recall correctly, even though it was often framed as “overproduction” due to the poor economic models being used in government.
I think inadequate prices for farm products often brings an economic downturn.
In the Great Depression, my understanding was that the problem was partly that some large farmers had mechanical equipment that allowed them to produce a large amount of agricultural products, inexpensively. Smaller farmers couldn’t afford to mechanize. The small farmers and their paid helpers were forced out of the market by the low prices for agricultural products.
You call that inept purple crowd control crushing violently? Not a single canistir of tear gas or paint ball pepper.
Vegetarians.
Prolly not even tear gas they’re packing I bet it’s just Nag Champa.
100 cops one gun.
Lots of sticks.
Not much has changed in 50 years.
At least it’s not a ww2 Enfield with the barrel wrapped with wire so it won’t blow anymore.
Student block party.
Now the Muslim vs Hindu rumbles in the slums those get way mean.
No purple 💜 police there.
Like the old greaser jock rumbles rules.
No edged weapons blunt force only.
Just not police lahtis.
There are sticks and there are sticks.
What goes around comes around.
Yeah that’s the way it should be. Knives and guns are cultural marxism. Concealed carry is the pinnacle of that pu ass sh. Try telling that to a big C Conservative.
You could say that the protests were crushed like worshippers underneath the wheels of a Jagannath chariot at a Rath Yatra festival in the 1800s.
“India has a religio fascist ”
Yawn. In the past, many rulers had the blessings of relgious leaders or needed their approval for legitimacy.