There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
Hegseth reported to Senate, that the Iranian campaign costed ~38bln. so far ( pre-budgeted up to end of Q3 ), and pleaded for new tranche of money, otherwise army into starving mode in various domains asap.
PS well 40B that’s a pocket change within the US universe..
From the man that claimed the Iranian military was ‘destroyed and made combat ineffective’ back in March, it’s fair to ask what all the money is for.
He then accused people of tds, reminding everyone that he’s still the same drunk crusader of stupidity he always was.
No matter how insane he acts, kegsbreath will get the funds.
More debt, no matter how it is justified, makes the US economy look better. It adds more jobs. The service being provided in allowing us to be the bully, when there is not enough to go around.
Supposedly, Don is about to send another bunch of air tankers to ME, so with the fleet already parked on stand-by in two spots in Israel ( 30 + 30 ) that’s going to equal or supersede the preparations done before the attack on Iran, earlier this yr.. Aka escalations here we come. Sorry if already posted earlier.., I liked the reported bit here though how civilian air ports are just over-filled with them there, curbing normal air traffic procedures.
https://www.axios.com/2026/07/17/trump-iran-israel-refueling-planes
Not a situation I like!
Pickglass mountain.
Get involved with upgraded uranium, maybe.
This is not the biggest problem:
https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/2028gic
ChatGPT summary: The article argues that the greatest risk from AI is not that it becomes intelligent, but that intelligence becomes abundant and cheap. Since the modern economy is built on the scarcity of human intelligence, widespread AI could eliminate millions of knowledge jobs, reduce consumer spending, and trigger a financial crisis. The authors present this as a thought experiment for 2028, warning that economic institutions may not be prepared for a world where human intelligence is no longer a scarce resource.
The biggest problem is when AI produces accurate analyses that predict a bleak future due to the physical limits of our world.
It would also eliminate the perceived need for economic inequality. Could one of the biggest “risks” of AI be that the wealthy lose their justification for their inequitable share of resources and power? (looking for silver linings lol)
Another problem:
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/openai-admits-model-escaped-containment-and-hacked-hugging-face-cheat-test
OpenAI disclosed Tuesday that a combination of its AI models, including GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable unreleased model, escaped its testing environment and hacked AI startup Hugging Face last week to cheat on a test meant to measure their capabilities.
There’s Tim’s theorized third psyop set-piece of the DA: Covid 2.0. I say it should be run concurrent with the climax of the BNS. It’s another lab leak of invisible terror messing with the spent fuel pool computer systems in order to kill us all off .
The lies will never stop .
” The DOE just redefined the SPR’s floor.
Not 250 to 300 million barrels, the level industry has always treated as the practical limit.
Now it says the true cavern mechanics floor is roughly 70 million, tripling the theoretical emergency cushion to about 246 million barrels.
The reserve is at 311.4 million, the lowest since 1983, after shedding more than 104 million barrels since February.
Here is the problem with the new math.
A July GAO audit found the SPR can only draw down at 61% of its intended rate and refill at 56%, after a delayed 1.4 billion dollar overhaul.
The agency’s own words: operational capability to meet mission demands is at risk.
Whatever the caverns theoretically hold, the pumps move it at barely half design speed.
The floor matters less than the flow. ”
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2079701994365653408
Danger money: Hormuz sailors offered six months’ salary to cross strait . 6 times salary as bonus . Extra pay would be around $9,000 for a junior sailor, based on average salaries paid to oil tanker crew .
https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/mena/2026/07/21/shipowner-offers-six-months-extra-salary-to-seafarers-willing-to-cross-the-strait-of-hormuz/
Only one way out 9k or not. It ain’t overland. Better to try than sit in a kill box with food and water resupply nonexistent. Probably not a fishing pole in the lot
Hull barnacles yum.
But we are already near the end of July and no rationing in sight. I think you are wrong in saying that 2026 is the fuel crisis year. I think 2026 is BAU in the West. It is possible that next year will be the fuel year in the West, and the food year in parts of the third world.
IMO, the fuel crisis will look like a financial crisis around the world. It will look like an upgrade to the war effort, to ramp up demand and prices. It won’t look like a fuel crisis, if governments can somehow hide it.
drb , 2026 is the year of the fuel crisis . You are experiencing it first hand at your end . This is all over . The difference between ” scarcity and expensive abundance” is very subtle .
How rich life is to have the one person here who’s made sucking gasoline in a ditch his morning chore say that rationing isn’t on the horizon. Now imagine how normies are going to react to collapse lol. Zombie apocalypse.
Since I did it once that may not be a good characterization of “chore”. you see, the local amazon, called ozon, has 3 bucks hand powered transfer pumps. They deliver in two days. I also balk at Ravi’s characterization of scarcity, a country that produces 12M barrels a day for a 150 M population.
Yes, the world will bifurcate.
The CHNs will finish that ongoing legacy tech NPP fleet construction build-up effort by ~2031, that’s 120GW, more than the entire aged US fleet.
Leveraging further, by that time solid state batt. will be in mass production, early partial-gen on sale Q1 next yr. That coupled with RE already in place means curbed demand for oil, so the PO profile manifesting as ~ (sliding)plateau extension for decades to come, for some regions and their allies only.. perhaps.
That’s why US-EU is madly trashing around as per intent to war ( “regime change ” ) or toppling the game table for others is their only answer.
You know, reante, I used to have some doubts about what type of function you had in this group. I have fewer now.
Nobody likes tough love in the moment brother drb. Crack the next skull open and eat the brain straight out of it. Then it will make more sense to you. I present my livestock dog with liver and a half a head, she goes for the brain first every time because she isn’t dragging any baggage around with her. Instant natural high I can tell you from experience.
Again, first stages of real rationing and (some specific)empty store shelves meant even in years of duration of this early wave will be most likely very regionally dependent affair.
So, in some parts of Asia, ~calmly accepted, following govs orders and mass herding plans; yet around MENA quite chaotic. Similarly, hot heads jumping up around ClubMed and parts of NA.. ; while ~calm workarounds in rural Scandinavia etc.
And very likely ~inferno onset in parts of real Africa, LatAm, SE Asia..
I see that Chris Martenson has replied to this comment:
130 Mb are in single cycle caverns. The rest need to maintain a 10% minimum. So unless the DOE is willing permanently damage the SPR, the minimum is 180 Mb.
So, in desperate times, we will do unadvisable things.
I also have frequently run across the issue when there is supposedly a reservoir, and a tap to the reservoir, it is the size of the tap that is important for the short to intermediate term, not the size of the reservoir. We seem to be hitting this issue as well.
So, if the given oily trends continue that over-all combined 180Mb SPR min. threshold to be reached by ~Q4, right ? Hence possibly extending then into Q1-Q2 next year BUT there on the condition of known-intentional damage to SPR..
Why *wouldn’t* you just collapse it? It’s a no brainer. If you don’t collapse it the oil is wasted.
Just filling in scenarios of the SPR situation, .. most likely we will get some other intervening factors by then.. be it on (de- )escalatory doom ladder-option either way.
Cmon and doom
Dooma dooma doom
Cmon on give it a try
Were gonna teach you to fly
Cmon and doom
https://youtu.be/Tq01f7pbzCc?si=AYJXNY8dvaXv3y4_
Yeah I know, I wasn’t aiming it at you.
You know it dog. The Rahm Emmanuel school of Doom. Never let a crisis go to waste kids!
US sanctions don’t mean much any more.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Keeps-Buying-Russian-Oil-at-Near-Record-Pace-Despite-Expired-Waiver.html
Yet, Indian imports of Russian crude has continued to flow in July, many of which may have been cargoes that were arranged during the window covered by the U.S. waiver.
So India’s imports of crude oil from Russia have averaged 2.45 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, according to data by Kpler cited by Indian media.
The July imports from Russia are not far off the record high level of 2.64 million bpd in June, when India boosted purchases from Russia, encouraged by the U.S. waiver that has been extended by a month a few times since March. . .
Going forward, Russian crude will remain a key source of oil supply for India even if the U.S. doesn’t renew the waiver for Russian crude already loaded on tankers, analysts say.
The world is in the burnout mode: do people and clmt follow the same path?
Your question looks interesting however, I’m not sure I understand what you’re asking?
Climate is a cover story to allow politicians to tell people that they need to use less fossil fuels, without saying that they are running out.
There is absolutely nothing we can do to change the fluctuations of climate. They operate on a different time scale than we do. Whatever is done, is baked into the cake already. Killing off lots of people now might theoretically help the problem for, say, 500 years down the line, but is this proper justification?
The 1997 Kyoto Protocol was ostensibly to reduce CO2 and stop climate change. It had precisely the opposite effect of what it was advertised to do. It encourages countries (that were already becoming short of fossil fuels) to send their manufacturing to China. China had a huge amount of coal to use. If it built new factories, they would be more efficient. Their workforce was also very cheap. The result was huge buildup of manufacturing in Southeast Asia, mostly using coal.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/CO2-Emissions-from-Fossil-Fuels-through-2024.png
Are you familiar with the concept of metabolic rift? I have always thought that climate change was an expression of one aspect of metabolic rift. Am I mistaken? I hardly ever disagree with anything you say and I also follow Nate Hagens Great Simplification. He certainly thinks that there is such a thing as climate change, and that it is related to human beings use of fossil fuels for industrial purposes. I have been reading your posts and also Nate’s posts since 2007 at least.
According to Wikipedia,
Metabolic rift is a theory of ecological crisis tendencies under the capitalist mode of production that sociologist John Bellamy Foster ascribes to Karl Marx. Quoting Marx, Foster defines this as the “irreparable rift in the interdependent process of social metabolism”.[1]: 949 Starting with his book Marx’s Ecology: Materialism and Nature, Foster argues that Marx theorized a rupture in the metabolic interaction between humanity and the rest of nature emanating from capitalist agricultural production and the growing division between town and country.
Humans have been reproducing faster than other animals for a very long time. This seems to be related to man’s ability to control fire, and our use of fire to cook food, starting over 1,000,000 years ago. This indirectly allowed humans to be smarter than other animals.
Evolution seems to be in the direction of greater complexity, and humans seem to be at the top of that complexity. College professors haven’t figured out how the system really works. Instead, they come up with their own theories.
And such professors have to publish and be cited to maintain their own ranking in the competitive rating system of academia….
Hello Ellen Anderson from the good old days of Economic Undertow.
Metabolic rift theory is not related to anthropogenic climate forcing. Marx knew nothing of climate change. His concern with the theory surrounded soil exhaustion from exporting soil nutrients in the form of agricultural goods to population centers.
What’s more, climate forcing is, as you yourself said, a consequence of the mass industrialism in which Marx was a big believer. Marx wanted to have his cake and eat it, too. That’s politics for you.
Steve from Virginia lost the plot in 2020
haha, we’re all reading the same blogs.
Does he still write about the triangle of doom anywhere or is he still salivating over defeating Russia?
On one level Steve was the most intelligent guy the peak oil community has ever seen imo. And he was a high school dropout. On another level he turned out to be the opposite. Go figure. Kunstler adjacent, basically. Like you alluded to House he lost his devoted commentariat to his absurdly square plandemic response. Maybe he still tweets I don’t know.
I owe him a ton.
Steve Ludlum is not a young person. I have met him. He may have retired, or he could have passed away.
When i came across him in the mid 2010’s he was a breath of fresh air. Its very disappointing when you respect someone’s viewpoints and then they go mainstream on you.
This is why I stepped away from the climate communities. They are mostly the liberal left who want to impose their moral judgement on everyone while they fly around the world and as you mention above have their cake and eat it too. The IPCC did a great job in corralling them to follow straight line climate changes so they enjoy their privileged lifestyles.
Fascinating Gail. I totally agree with you. I also want to add the IPCC (formed 1988) was created to make it look like the governments around the world were doing something to fight climate change. (as the climate was starting to show signs of problems for those who were noticing). An then a whole Green Industrial Complex was created. The IPCC also keeps scientists “in-line” so that the climate looks more like straight line curve changes (and can be fixed). Jimmy Carter was so concerned about the climate situation that he got the National Academy of Sciences (created by Abraham Lincoln) involved. They hired Jule Charney to investigate climate sensitivity. His work centered around climate sensitivity – What temperature would result if we doubled CO2? James Hansen has always appreciated his work, however, he thinks the planet is much more sensitive than Charney’s estimates according to recent papers. Changing the subject a little, I was listening to an interview with Jeffrey Currie and he was saying that Jimmy Carter likely only got one term because of his speech to the American people about the energy crisis (as this is something that a president should never discuss with the public).
That the people are running on high revs, always rushing somewhere, speaking fast and with high pitch, multitasking. Crazy…
Walk quietly by, he won’t bother you
He’s a busy man, he’s got things to do
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
Through summer heat and the winter snow
You’ll find him picking up the papers that people throw
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
There’s no rhyme nor reason
Walking the streets of this wide world
Can’t find the answer to my restless troubled mind
Please help, I keep asking
Everybody’s so busy, no they won’t stop
I got to keep on moving to rest this troubled mind
He doesn’t care, nor does he know
Of the outside world that comes and goes
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
So walk quietly by, he won’t bother you
He’s a busy man, he’s got things to do
All day long he’s happy in his world
Picking up the leaves
Cleaning up his own back yard
The world ecosystem has an overuse by humans of resources problem, although I am not sure the ecosystem sees it that way. The ecosystem is cyclical. It can take care of itself. We flatter ourselves by thinking we can figure out how to influence it, and carry through with that plan.
I remember back when climate scientists were saying that the advent of agriculture saved us from going back into another ice age.
Climate is cyclic, like most parts of natural systems. Humans (or pre-humans) lived through ice ages. We likely will need to adapt if the climate changes.
Yes, people have stopped respecting natural cycles. We have passed the summer solstice, which means that the Sun’s energy is gradually weakening in the Northern Hemisphere.
However, people behave as if crops ripen faster and faster, independently of these natural cycles. That is simply nonsense.
Today, people create jobs that no one wants because there is no one capable of performing them, or because a person can perform them only for a short period before burning out. We have a shortage of sustainable jobs.
Computers helped us manage increasing complexity, but we have now reached a point where the use of AI makes many jobs unbearably complex for humans.
We’re in the middle of the anthropogenic Sixth Mass Extinction, Gail. Our family tree is losing all its leaves because of industrialism. And climate may be cyclical but natural dynamic equilibrium and anthropogenic disequilibrium are altogether two different things.
The Hand is keenly aware of all this which is why the whole purpose of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda is to denuclearize the civilization before it’s too late, because enlightenment is focusing on what you can benevolently control.
I went to Yaroslavl today. 16 stations on M-8 out of 20 had everything. One had one type of gasoline only, and another had both types, no diesel. two were closed. no lines anywhere. situation is slowly on the mend. tomorrow i get gas i will see if there is still a 30 liters limit.
Maybe things are normalizing, at least partially.
Toutefois, pour ceux d’entre nous qui sont enclins à scruter les tendances façonnant notre avenir à court terme, nous vivons actuellement ce qui ressemble fort au calme précédant une série de tempêtes majeures. La plus évidente d’entre elles concerne le prix déraisonnablement bas du diesel à la pompe, conséquence d’un décalage de deux à trois semaines avant que les tarifs ne s’alignent sur l’offre mondiale. Ainsi, les prix actuels reflètent l’optimisme qui régnait en juin à l’échelle internationale. Cette situation résultait en grande partie de la décision de nombreux États de puiser dans leurs réserves stratégiques et de raffinage, dans l’espoir que la production mondiale rebondirait avant que le bruit sinistre des réservoirs à sec ne résonne aux quatre coins de la planète. Elle découlait aussi, en partie, d’un bref répit offert par le protocole d’accord — malheureux et désormais caduc — entre les États-Unis et l’Iran, qui semblait promettre la réouverture du détroit d’Ormuz. Par ailleurs – et de manière quelque peu surprenante – la Chine a considérablement réduit ses importations de pétrole, allégeant ainsi la pression sur la demande mondiale.
Néanmoins, la décision de la classe politique européenne de cibler les capacités de raffinage russes a provoqué une interdiction des exportations de diesel, aggravant la pénurie mondiale de ce carburant en provenance du golfe Persique.
Le monde connaît désormais un déficit de plus d’un million de barils de diesel par jour, sans répit en vue ; des hausses de prix à court terme sont donc inévitables
Tim Watkins 21 07 26
Translation:
However, for those of us inclined to scrutinize the trends shaping our near-term future, we are currently experiencing what looks very much like the calm before a series of major storms. The most obvious of these concerns the unreasonably low price of diesel at the pump—a result of the two-to-three-week lag before rates align with global supply. Consequently, current prices reflect the international optimism that prevailed in June. This situation stemmed largely from the decision by many nations to tap into their strategic and refining reserves, hoping that global production would rebound before the ominous sound of running on empty echoed across the globe. It also resulted, in part, from a brief respite provided by the—ill-fated and now defunct—memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, which seemed to promise the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore—and somewhat surprisingly—China significantly reduced its oil imports, thereby easing pressure on global demand.
Nevertheless, the decision by European policymakers to target Russian refining capacity triggered a ban on diesel exports, exacerbating the global shortage of fuel from the Persian Gulf.
The world is now facing a deficit of over a million barrels of diesel per day with no relief in sight; short-term price hikes are therefore inevitable.
Tim Watkins 21 07 26
I should add that Alfa bank was empty, the place selling my truck was empty, and the main tractor parts shop in Yaroslavl was nearly empty. The economic shock is still there, and the latter tells me not many are haying, although who knows, it is raining all the time. I just filled up locally, 6 minutes line but I did not get the amount or type I wanted. The press says that limits are getting lifted oblast by oblast. There is a pilgrimage in town and the town is packed right now. Also they are shooting a medieval movie so anything modern near the monastery is covered with plywood painted to look medieval. I will have to skip espresso.
Despite the title, the Three Gorges Dam is still there, but …..
On the morning of July 17 at 9:07 a.m., a massive landslide struck Hanjiā Subdistrict in Chongqing. Loud rumbling sounds and clouds of dust filled the air. Tens of thousands of cubic meters of rocks and soil broke loose from the steep mountainside. They crashed downward and quickly covered the streets, vehicles, pedestrians, and rows of homes below.
I can believe this. In 2011, my husband and I took a Viking trip that went down the Yangtze River, in this area. This is a photo I took when it was very foggy:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/qutang-buildings.jpg
You can see that already there had been a small landslide, affecting the sign giving the city name. We were told at that time about the landslide risk.
Many farmers had been moved out of the fertile Yangtze valley, where they had raised crops in the past. They were told to bring bushel baskets of soil, and move them up to the mountain. The would need to terrace to have a level place to grow things. Eleven-story walk up buildings were built along the river, for former farmers and their families. Many of the young people decided to move to big cities instead, leaving the upper stories of these high rises unoccupied. They were hoping tourism would help replace the lost farm income.
Trump is fighting with everyone he can ..
The Trump administration imposed 50% tariffs on three categories of imports from Canada, dairy, alcohol, and cars, citing discriminatory actions. NBC News’ Monica Alba reports on how Trump is also considering additional tariffs due to the Canadian wildfires.
Hope the Pope can prevent him his book
Pope Leo XIV, who has advocated for an end to wars since the beginning of his pontificate last year, calls for nuclear disarmament in a new book being published on Tuesday.
The book, “Unarmed and Disarming: Peace Is a Gift,” collects Leo’s speeches, homilies and writings on war, the role of diplomacy and resolving disputes without violence. In the book, the pope does not mention any nation by name, instead writing broadly about the dangers of the nuclear arms race.
As pathetic as they were the path to nuclear disagreement was arms control treatys. They are all gone. Calling for nuclear disarmament in the absence of any behavior that supports the same is like calling for a healthy body with terrible diet and no exercise.
Nuclear disarmament can not occur without cooperation including economic cooperation because war is almost exclusively a economic conflict.
The science of cooperation in its infancy is called diplomacy. We witness a complete abandonment of diplomacy.
Even when diplomacy was practiced it was a lengthy unskillful thing largely still a construct of destructive power. There has to be limits to destructive power paradigm for any cooperation. They may well be mutually exclusive. Let’s cooperate and if we don’t in the manner I wish I will kill you does not appear very effective sort of cooperation.
As individuals we are able to practice cooperation out of the quality of commonality. We understand we are alike and have things that benefit us or do not as a whole. Largely this is absent in regard to the world community.
As a species we are not hard wired to cooperate. We are hard wired to compete. Look at this world cup phenomena supposedly an exercise in cooperation. Its basis is competition.
The only disfunctional attempt at nuclear weapon non proliferation the nuclear non proliferation treaty is itself a exercise in destructive power paradigm. It accents the value of destructive power it does not diminish it forming two castes of nation. Nuclear weapon acquisition being the only way to enter the exceptional caste. Once the exceptional caste is entered there are no rules. If the exceptional caste is not entered rules are enforced by threat of destructive force.
Even if nations accept this lower caste status and meticulously abide by the rules they are still subject to arbitrary destructive power. Cooperative behavior is rewarded with a boot applied to their teeth.
The popes essay is not worth the digital bits it’s written on. Behavior demonstrates essence not words. The separation of behavior from greater principles is best encompassed by the word hypocrisy.
This of course is no news flash. What is really occuring is preparation for the end of individualism not as a function of cooperation which our species demonstrates little capacity for but as a function of force. Cooperation in practice is eliminated by destructive power because cooperation is not practiced or valued. No practice no skill. What is taught and practiced is not cooperation and acceptance but homogenization. The end of individualism is the thesis of the Popes essay. That is the thesis of all the events we witness. The supposed refutation of destructive power by exerting destructive power.
IMO this is worth considering. Is destructive power actually capable of diminishing itself? Should attempts such as diplomacy be abandoned? Is cooperation so unachievable that homogenization is the only answer? If so who gets to determine the nature of the homogenized cultural terrafoming enforced with destructive force paradigm? Homogenization to an arbitrary standard is a declaration that our species is incapable of cooperation. It is the equivalent of incarceration of the individual who has proved he is incapable of cooperation but for the entire species. Except of course for those creating the homogenization.
Nuclear weapon use will occur. It must to present extinction as the only alternative to homogenization.
Let’s suppose that each person needs 2,000 calories a day of food. As long as production is far about that level, then cooperation can be helpful. Synergy exists. We can get coffee from far away places, and fruits when they are out of season locally.
Once the total production of food falls to, say, an average of 1,500 calories a day of food, homogenization doesn’t make sense. There simply isn’t enough food to go around. There needs to be fighting to see who gets adequate food. The situation becomes survival of the best adapted.
We are reaching a situation with total goods and services falling to too low a level. The question is, “Who gets left out?” Also, which countries are in a lower caste relative to other countries. The US has worked on putting Iran into its place for a long time.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Iran-oil-production-with-1979-sanctions-line-noted.png
If I lived in Iran, I would be very unhappy.
If you look back in historical sense, the caloric input ( or food measured in weight / volume ) was always distributed-assigned in priority order. Hence say police and army edged ever so slightly above the nontenured / non specialized working class level situation, ..
In order to ” keep order ” preserve the governing structure.
I think it’s immortality to look at *quality* of food as well rather than raw quantities. You can look at ancient India where only the Kshatriya were allowed to eat meat. Or medieval to early modern Ireland where the native Irish were only allowed grain and later potatoes despite raising cattle for the British overlords.
Yes, that’s a good perspective as well.
For one thing, one can also recall how nobility banned or severely curtailed game hunting ( both field and forest contexts ) in the past.
On the flip side though, often times these heavy diets, fine alcohol and white sugar cookies in abundance paradoxically lead up to a situation where ~poor peasant munching regularly more greenery instead enjoyed better quality life as well as longevity – obviously I’m not claiming this to be the prevailing situation everywhere..
Big difference was also access to wider areal unspoiled and unrelated to field crops additional food source, especially fish – that’s large part behind the early success of the NW Europe in recent centuries or previously ClubMed area during Antiquity.. As in both instances they managed technologies to store it for ~long haul, be it salt or previously various ~gore fermenting processes.
Freya Stark described dinner time in an Arab tribal encampment, 1930s:
1/ The chief and his guests got the pick of the meat, served on rice.
2/ The 2nd tier got plenty of rice, some meat, and gravy.
3/ The lower tier and slaves got rice and gravy – itself nutritious, of course, but rarely or never a scrap of meat.
Ringing the tents were the dogs, which probably received the offal.
Similar structures for apportioning nutrition evolved in all societies, except the most primitively egalitarian.
The rituals and hierarchies of the early medieval Great Hall were similar, down to how fresh your bread was according to class: baked that day, or two to three days old.
But worth noting that the lower servants would all eat more, and more regularly, than they would have done in a cottage, especially during times of famine.
Xabier, great further discussion, thanks.
Allow for tangent, on the fresh baked bread, they did not have fantastic-plastic then. That can keep bread in ~fresh condition many days, and edible for week+ ; what they used in the old times was two smaller blankets/thin towels*, basically wrapping the bread over in two stages around them. It offered similar perhaps even slightly longer consumable period. Also there were methods how to
properly de-moist the aging bread ( as bit / crumbs ) so it could last even way longer and then re-activated when needed just soaked-cooked in later stages with soups or stews etc. Simply, bread / grain was TOO precious NOT to develop these methods eventually..
__
* still better method even today, but you have to rotate several sets of them, more add. laundry work etc.
Just for enlarging the context – schmontex again:
Grains in
Asia/CHN – 10k yrs ago
ClubMed/ME – 5/6k yrs ago
NorthofAlps – 3.5k yrs ago
..
.
PS as alwayz depending on which study (/whom) you tend to believe..
People in the US eat way too much meat and processed foods of all kinds, including sweets. US life expectancies are dreadful compared to other countries. The idea that meat is a high-quality food and we should eat lots of it is drilled into people’s heads. Every mortality study shows that vegetarian, including milk, cheese, and eggs comes out ahead in life expectancy. Also, having these foods plus fish is helpful. But having much meat is not necessary, at all. Having some beans instead works pretty well.
Vegan is not a good option for life expectancy, and neither is the US diet.
“Europe in general and the UK in particular is poorly placed to withstand even the mildest of the shocks that are coming. Having voluntarily deindustrialised, having made ourselves dependent on imported energy, and only able to produce around half of the food we need, even something as relatively trivial as a run on the pound would result in a national breakdown. “?
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/07/21/a-brief-interlude/?fbclid=IwY2xjawTNVwRleHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFUMnpFanlZQUtkd0JLbUxXc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHqsHdPqO4NqBFKhxmH-9M4Y5_4IV0mA5HEVbE6o_nOH7G2aSzCmGP9WKbkDq_aem_h5G2UGmQSTMdHGsXIP9IQA
Absaloutly. And if it was a simple matter of the normal manner of calorie distribution everything would be peachy. Not pleasant if you get balanced but peachy.
In fact mutually assured destruction has eliminated balance and it can not return until the devices are disassembled.
Not enough chairs is never a pleasant matter. Understanding makes it quite tolerable. The unpleasantness has led to the notion that the sphere is our adversary not our provider. That is what makes the unpleasantness intolerable. A notion.
That does not mean commonality does not exist. That does not mean cooperation is not valuable. People are well capable of those truths. Humans are well capable of making difficult decisions for the common good. The problems arise when decisions are made by some for others. The anti thesis of comanality. In the end loss of free will is the most unpleasant thing not balancing. This is because we all get balanced. Cooperation can only exist with free will. Greater understanding can only exist with free will. Our coping skills source from free will and greater understanding.
Tariffs are a way of trying to move US production of goods and services up, as the same time as trying to suppress another country’s production (here Canada’s) production of goods and services. Any excuse seems to be a good one, for more tariffs. At least some economists believe that tariffs are working as planned, without shooting wars. But the purpose is similar to that of a war.
As far as i can tell, the repealed tariffs were a backdoor bailout of the corporations again. They raise the price, we pay it, tariffs repealed, they get refunded, price stays the same.
You’re a genius Mr House. Thank you for adding that to the akashic record.
Another choke point is choked .
” he Kiev regime, by carrying out strikes on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), is seeking to further destabilize the situation on global oil markets, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a commentary. ”
https://tass.com/politics/2162673
The context related to this I suppose, ~5th attack in a row on this crude oil loading sea port facility.. Funnily enough, here UKRo boyz were attacking ” US/NL ” capital in that con$ortium as well..
https://tass.com/economy/2162537
” About CPC
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium is the largest route for transporting oil from the Caspian region to global markets.
The 1,511 km long main pipeline connects oil fields in Western Kazakhstan with Russia’s Black Sea coast where oil is loaded onto tankers via the CPC’s marine terminal.
Among CPC shareholders are Russia (via Transneft), Kazakhstan (via KazMunayGas), structures of Chevron, Lukoil, ExxonMobil, a joint venture of Rosneft and Shell. “
Oh dear! The world economy needs this oil supply.
Inevitable. Hormuz is nothing without oil transit. Caspian is Irans jewel. Did they think no one would notice? No body of water is safe for transit now for surface vessels. Truly Pandora’s box.
Moreover, theDuranists today predicted brutal oil spike for autumn, based on reading the Iranian strategy from now on as no further negoc w. US again at all..
The reason why it’s not recognized as total war now is Irans principle weapon is time. They just got to let everyone know both hands are on the mutually assured destruction cord while they wait. Once the economic pain kicks in then they can have fun. Until then they are being serious.
Once economic pain is in effect all the way around we can have a proper war.
Iran has been a huge food exporter to the region. None the less Caspian must be severed. Ke sera.
Massive protests in Delhi by unemployed students . PM leaves parliament .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0GlMXlGtjoE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eGwKLOwwDKE
Farmers march to Delhi to protest FTA on agriculture with USA .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XXAW075BC9c
Peak Oil dynamics — Rockman
India has a religio fascist government that follows the Israeli model . Dissent is crushed violently .
We saw before that there has been significant job loss in India because of AI taking away customer service jobs and low level programming jobs.
Inadequate prices for agricultural goods seems to be an issue around the world. The farmers I talked to in Norway were concerned about low prices, for example. Workers don’t have high enough wages to keep food prices up.
The Indian customer service wasn’t good, but the AI is worse. I find myself yelling at it for a real person.
Even when a real person is provided, it can now be a minimum wage hire, typing questions into AI. I had this experience with a tech support call. It was one step worse than typing the question in myself.
Aren’t inadequate prices for agricultural products one of THE biggest signs of a big economic downturn? This phenomenon was one of the biggest in issues in the Great Depression if I recall correctly, even though it was often framed as “overproduction” due to the poor economic models being used in government.
I think inadequate prices for farm products often brings an economic downturn.
In the Great Depression, my understanding was that the problem was partly that some large farmers had mechanical equipment that allowed them to produce a large amount of agricultural products, inexpensively. Smaller farmers couldn’t afford to mechanize. The small farmers and their paid helpers were forced out of the market by the low prices for agricultural products.
You call that inept purple crowd control crushing violently? Not a single canistir of tear gas or paint ball pepper.
Vegetarians.
Prolly not even tear gas they’re packing I bet it’s just Nag Champa.
100 cops one gun.
Lots of sticks.
Not much has changed in 50 years.
At least it’s not a ww2 Enfield with the barrel wrapped with wire so it won’t blow anymore.
Student block party.
Now the Muslim vs Hindu rumbles in the slums those get way mean.
No purple 💜 police there.
Like the old greaser jock rumbles rules.
No edged weapons blunt force only.
Just not police lahtis.
There are sticks and there are sticks.
What goes around comes around.
Yeah that’s the way it should be. Knives and guns are cultural marxism. Concealed carry is the pinnacle of that pu ass sh. Try telling that to a big C Conservative.
You could say that the protests were crushed like worshippers underneath the wheels of a Jagannath chariot at a Rath Yatra festival in the 1800s.
“India has a religio fascist ”
Yawn. In the past, many rulers had the blessings of relgious leaders or needed their approval for legitimacy.