Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order

Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order that, over the long term, will support higher prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. Such an economy would probably be centered on Russia and China. The rest of the world economy, to the extent that it continues to exist, will largely have to get along without fossil fuels, other than the fossil fuels that countries continue to produce for themselves. Population and living standards will fall in most of the world.

If a Russia-and-China-centric economy can be developed, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Trade will be in the currency of the new Russia-China block. Outside of this block, local currencies will play a dominant role. Most of today’s debt will ultimately be defaulted upon; to the extent that this debt is replaced, it will be replaced with debt in local currencies.

As I see the situation, the underlying problem is the fact that, on a world basis, energy consumption per capita is shrinking. Energy consumption is essential for creating goods and services.

Figure 1. Energy of various types is used to transform raw materials (that is resources) into finished products.

The shrinking amount of energy per person means that, on average, fewer and fewer finished goods and services can be produced for each person. Some countries do better than average; others do worse. With low fossil fuel prices, Russia has been faring worse than average; it wants to remedy the situation with long-term higher energy prices. If Russia can start transferring its energy exports to China, perhaps the new Russia-China economy, with limited support from the rest of the world, can afford to pay Russia the high prices for fossil fuels that Russia requires to maintain its economy.

In this post, I will try to explain what I see is happening.

[1] It appears that Russia now fears that it is near collapse, not too different from the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Such a collapse would lead to a huge drop in Russia’s living standards, even from today’s relatively low level.

If we look back at the Soviet Union’s energy consumption, we see a strange pattern. The Soviet Union’s energy consumption rose rapidly in the period after World War II. It became a military rival of the US, as its energy consumption grew in the 1965 to 1985 period. Its energy consumption leveled off before the central government collapsed in 1991. In fact, energy consumption has never gotten back to its level in the late 1980s.

Figure 2. Former Soviet Union (FSU) energy consumption by fuel, based on data of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2018.

[2] The thing that seems to have been behind the 1991 collapse is the same thing that seems to be behind Russia’s current fear of collapse: continued low oil prices.

When we look back at inflation-adjusted oil prices, we see that a long period of low prices preceded this collapse. These low prices were harmful in many ways. They reduced funds for reinvestment, which led to the collapse in oil supply. They reduced the funds available to pay wages. They also reduced the tax revenue that the Soviet Union could collect.

Figure 3. Oil production and price of the former Soviet Union (FSU), based on BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2015.

I believe that these chronically low oil prices ultimately brought down the top layer of the government of the Soviet Union. This is because of the physics of the situation. It takes energy to provide the services of the top level of the government. As the total energy that could be purchased by the system fell because of low prices received for exports, it became impossible to support this top level of governmental services. This top layer was less essential than the lower levels of government, so it fell away.

In recent times, there has also been a long period of low prices, since about 2013:

Figure 4. Inflation adjusted Brent Oil prices in 2020$, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

Unless this pattern of low prices can be reversed quickly, Russia as a political entity could collapse. Exports of all of the goods it now produces would likely fall.

[3] While oil prices depend on “supply and demand,” as a practical matter, demand is very dependent on interest rates and debt levels. The higher the debt level and the lower the interest rate, the higher the price of oil can rise.

If we look back at Figure 4, we can see that before the US subprime housing bubble popped in 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices were able to rise to $157 per barrel, adjusted to the 2020 price level. Once the debt bubble popped, inflation-adjusted oil prices fell to $49 per barrel. It was at this low point (and correspondingly low prices for many other commodities) that the US started its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates.

After two years of QE, oil prices were back above $140 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices, but these soon started sliding down. By the time oil prices dropped to $120 per barrel, oil companies started to complain that prices were falling too low to meet all of their needs, including the need to drill in ever less productive areas. Now we are at a point where interest rates are about as low as they can go. Short-term interest rates are near zero, which is where they were in the late 1930s.

Figure 5. 3-month and 10-year US Treasury interest rates, through February 28, 2022. Chart by FRED of the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

The quantity of funds in people’s checking and savings accounts is at an extraordinarily high level, as well. This is partly because of the availability of debt at these low interest rates.

Figure 6. M2 Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Money Stock in chart by FRED of the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

Thus, even before the Ukrainian invasion, oil prices were raised about as high as they could go, through low interest rates and generous debt availability. With all this stimulus, Brent Spot Oil prices averaged $86.51 in January 2022. Even now, with all the disruption of the attack by Russia against Ukraine, oil prices are below the $120 threshold that producers seem to need. This price issue, plus the corresponding low-price issues for natural gas and coal, is the problem that Russia is concerned about.

Prices for imported coal and natural gas have bounced very high in the last few months, but no one expects these high prices to last. For one thing, they are too high for the European manufacturers that use imported coal or natural gas to stay in business. For example, producers that create urea fertilizer using natural gas find that the price of fertilizer produced in this way is way too high for farmers to afford. For another, the electricity produced by burning the high-priced natural gas or coal tends to be too expensive for European households to afford.

[4] The fundamental problem behind recent low oil prices is the fact that the current mix of consumers cannot afford goods and services produced using the high oil prices that producers, such as Russia, need to operate, pay high enough wages, and do adequate reinvestment.

When the price of oil was very low, back before 1970 (see Figure 3), it was relatively easy for consumers to afford goods and services made with oil. This was the period when the world economy was growing rapidly, and many people could afford to purchase automobiles and buy the oil products needed to operate them.

Once the cost of oil extraction started rising because of depletion, it became more and more difficult to keep prices both:

  1. High enough for oil producers, such as Russia, and
  2. Low enough to make affordable goods for consumers, as was possible prior to 1970

To try to hide the increasingly difficult problem of keeping prices both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers, central banks have lowered interest rates and encouraged the use of more debt. The idea is that if a person can buy a fuel-efficient car at a low enough interest rate and over a long enough term, perhaps this will make the vehicle more affordable. Similarly, interest rates on home mortgages have fallen to very low levels. All of this, plus the fact that debt is used to finance new factories and mines, leads to the relationship we saw in Figure 4 between oil prices and debt availability, related to interest rates.

[5] No one knows precisely how much oil, coal and natural gas can be extracted because the quantity that can be extracted depends on the extent of the price rise that can be tolerated without plunging the economy into recession.

If prices of these fossil fuels can rise very high (say, $300 per barrel for oil, and correspondingly high prices for other fossil fuels), a huge amount of fossil fuel can be extracted. Conversely, if energy prices cannot stay above the equivalent of $80 per barrel oil for very long without a serious recession, then we may already be very close to the end of available fossil fuel extraction. Both oil and gas producers and coal producers can be expected to go out of business because prices do not leave a sufficient margin for the required investment in new fields to offset the depletion of existing fields. Renewables will falter, as well, because both building and maintaining renewables requires fossil fuels.

The amount of resources of any kind (fossil fuels and minerals such as lithium, uranium, copper and zinc) that can be extracted depends upon the extent of depletion that the economy can tolerate. Depletion of any kind of resource means that a bigger effort (more workers, more machinery, more energy products) is required to extract a given quantity of each resource. It is clear that the entire economy cannot be transferred to the extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources. For example, some workers and resources are needed for growing and transporting food. This puts a limit on how much depletion can be tolerated.

What Russia (as well as every other oil producer) would like is a way to get the tolerable oil price up significantly higher, for example, to $150 per barrel, so that more oil can be extracted. The hope is that a Russia-and-China-centric economy might be able to do this. Ideally, the tolerable maximum price for coal and natural gas would rise, as well.

[6] Europe, in particular, cannot afford high oil prices. If interest rates are increased soon, this will make the problem even worse. China seems to have definite advantages as an economic partner.

Europe is already having difficulty tolerating very high prices of imported natural gas and coal. Rising oil prices will add even more stress. Central banks are planning to raise interest rates. These higher interest rates will make loan payments more expensive. These higher interest rates will tend to push Europe’s economy further toward recession.

Given the problems with Europe as an energy importer, China would seem to have the possibility of being a better customer that can perhaps tolerate higher prices. For one thing, China is more efficient in its use of energy products than Europe. For example, many homes in the southern half of China are not heated in winter. People instead dress warmly inside their homes in winter. Also, homes and businesses in northern China are sometimes heated with waste heat from nearby coal-fired electricity plants. This is a very efficient approach to heating.

China also uses more coal in its energy mix than Europe. Historically, coal has been much less expensive than oil. What is needed is a low average price of energy. A small amount of high-priced oil can be tolerated in an economy that uses mostly coal in its energy mix. When all costs are counted, wind and solar are very high-priced energy sources, which contributes to Europe’s problems.

In recent years, China’s consumption of energy products has been growing very rapidly. Perhaps, in the view of Russia, China can use high-priced fossil fuel better than other parts of the world.

Figure 7. Energy consumption per capita for the world, the Asia-Pacific Region, and China based on data from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

[7] Russia realized that the rest of the world is utterly dependent upon its fossil fuel exports. Because of this dependency, as well as the physics-based connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the making of finished goods and services, Russia holds huge power over the world economy.

The world economy should have known about the importance of fossil fuels and the likelihood that the world economy would face depletion issues in the first half of the 21st century, ever since a speech by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957. In this speech, Rickover said,

We live in what historians may someday call the Fossil Fuel Age. . .With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. . . A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life. 

Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.

. . . it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at sometime between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America’s youngsters the best possible education [including the energy problem of a world with finite resources].

Many people today would conclude that world leaders have done their best to ignore this advice. The likely problem with fossil fuels has been hidden behind an imaginative, but false, narrative that our biggest problem is climate change caused primarily by fossil fuel extraction that can be expected to extend until at least 2100, unless positive steps are made to hold back this extraction.

In this false narrative, all the world needs to do is to move to wind and solar for its energy needs. As I discussed in my most recent post, titled Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer, this narrative of success is completely false. Instead, we seem to be hitting energy limits in the near term because of chronically low prices. Wind and solar are doing very little to help because they cannot be depended upon when needed. Furthermore, the quantity of wind and solar available is far too low to replace fossil fuels.

Few people in America and Europe realize that the world economy is entirely dependent upon Russia’s exports of oil, coal and natural gas. This dependency can be seen in many ways. For example, in 2020, 41% of world natural gas exports came from Russia. Natural gas is especially important for balancing electricity from wind and solar.

North America has historically played only a very small role in natural gas exports; it is questionable whether North America can ramp up its total natural gas production in the future, given the depletion problems being experienced with respect to the extraction of oil and the associated natural gas from shale formations. Continuously high oil prices are necessary to justify ramping up production outside of sweet spots. If drillers consider long-term prospects for oil prices to be too low, the associated natural gas will not be collected.

Figure 8. Natural gas exports by part of the world, considering only exports outside of a given region. Based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Europe is especially dependent upon natural gas imports (Figure 9). Its imports of natural gas exceed the exports of Russia and its affiliated countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, referred to as Russia+ in Figures 8 and 9.

Figure 9. Natural gas imports by part of the world, considering only exports outside of a given region. Based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Without the natural gas exports of Russia and its close affiliates, there is no possibility of supplying adequate natural gas exports to the rest of the world.

Diesel fuel, created by refining oil, is another energy product that is in critically short supply, especially in Europe. Diesel fuel is used to power trucks and farm tractors, as well as many European automobiles. An Argus Media report indicates that Russian supplies account for 50% to 60% of Europe’s seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil, amounting to 4 to 6 million tons of fuel per month. It likely would be impossible to replace these imports, using supplies from elsewhere, without bidding the price of these imported fuels up to a much higher price level than today. Even then, countries outside Europe would be left with inadequate diesel supplies.

[8] Russia’s attack on Ukraine seems to have been made for many reasons.

Russia was clearly frustrated with the current situation, with NATO becoming increasingly assertive within Ukraine itself, even though Ukraine is not itself a NATO member. Russia is also aware that in some sense, it has far more power over the world economy than most people realize because the world economy is utterly dependent on Russia’s fossil fuel exports (Section 7). Sanctions against Russia will likely hurt the countries making the sanctions as much or more than they hurt Russia.

There were also several concerns that were specifically Ukrainian giving rise to the attack on Ukraine. There had been long standing conflicts about natural gas pipelines. Was Ukraine taking too much natural gas out as a transit fee? Was it paying the correct fee for the natural gas it used? Ukraine also seems to have mistreated quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians over the years.

Russia has become increasingly frustrated with the small share of the world’s output of goods and services that it receives. The way the economic system works today, those who provide “services” seem to receive a disproportionate share of the world’s output of goods and services. Russia, with its extraction of minerals of many kinds, including fossil fuels, has not been well compensated for the great wealth that it brings to the world as a whole.

Over the years, Russia’s great strength has been its military. Perhaps Ukraine would not be too large a country to do battle over. Russia might be able to eliminate some of its irritations with Ukraine. At the same time, it might be able to make changes that would help to raise what have become chronically low fossil fuel prices. The sanctions that other countries would make would tend to push the required changes along more quickly.

If the sanctions really did push Russia down, the result would tend to push the whole world economy toward collapse, because the rest of the world is extremely dependent upon Russia’s fossil fuel exports. In Figure 1, the laws of physics say that there is a proportional response to the quantity of energy “dissipated”; if a greater output of goods and services is desired, more energy input is required. Efficiency changes can somewhat help, but efficiency savings tend to be offset by the higher energetic needs of the more complex system required to achieve these savings.

If energy prices do not rise high enough, we will somehow need to get along with very little or no fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewables will last very long either because they depend upon fossil fuels for their maintenance and repair.

[9] If higher energy prices cannot be achieved, there is a significant chance that the change in the world order will be in the direction of pushing the world economy toward collapse.

We are living in a world today with shrinking energy resources per capita. We should be aware that we are reaching the limits of fossil fuels and other minerals that we can extract, unless we can somehow figure out a way to get the economy to tolerate higher prices.

The danger that we are approaching is that the top levels of governments, everywhere in the world, will either collapse or be overthrown by their unhappy citizens. The reduced amounts of energy available will push governments in this way. At the same time, programs such as government-funded pension plans and unemployment plans will disappear. Electricity is likely to become intermittent and then fail completely. International trade will shrink back; economies will become much more local.

We were warned that we would be reaching a time period with serious energy problems about now. The first time came in the 1957 Rickover speech discussed in Section 7. The second warning came from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, which documented a computer modeling approach to the problem of limits of a finite world. The Ukraine invasion may be a push in the direction of more serious energy problems, emerging primarily from the fact that other countries will want to punish Russia. Few people will realize that punishing Russia is a dangerous path; a serious concern is that today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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5,373 Responses to Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order

  1. MM says:

    The idea of “creative destruction” lacks the idea of “creative creation” for something to exist to be destroyed.
    Anyhow, have fun destroying what is in your way!

    The Papal Bull of 1492 declared the native Americans as being “void”.

    There was

    “A complete disregard of everything existing that has been destroyed”

    The destructive forces in this world have a mental problem of understanding where they are in and what has to be destroyed. Ok, let’s say, everything is destroyed now, what do we do next?
    There will be nobody to “do” anything next.
    They simply do not get it. They have a vague idea that AI will know it. But there is no proof that AI actually “knows” anything.
    AI systems can not be debugged,
    At one point in time you might come to the idea that the AI is wrong, you will have to “recreate the entire model” meaning training it again for some other 40 years as they were doing with the SPS.
    (Do we see something like a new human appearing on earth here?”)

    If I can see a bug “here” I see it. I know that this is a bug. My mind has been trained to see bugs for 4 Billion years. The AI has a max of 50 years of “knowledge”. Well, hopefully this will work!

    I do not think that there exists a CEP. I think that there exists plain old f789 stupidity at work but I am open for other suggestions.

    The Israelites were “lead” to a new “region” that they “were entiteled” to settle. Was that “regoin” empty? Why is there something like Palestine? it simply makes no sense, if everything “is just fine as we tell you”.

    What exactly is “empty”?
    Obviously it is a concept some people can not comprehend.

    Very sad for them.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    Nadal press conference

    • Lastcall says:

      I do believe I saw a flicker of fear cross his face; one of those micro-expressions the body language people talk about.
      Any experts out there?
      Maybe there is a dim, but growing realisation, that things will never be the same again…

      When does he get served next?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Tinged with shock and despair as in ‘this can’t be happening’.

        One might feel for the guy except for the fact that he taunted Novak…. remember how Dunc taunted us….

        It’s always nice to be right.

        And the good thing about being wrong and being willing to change one’s mind (and laugh at being wrong) is that in the end you are always right. Always. Unless of course you have to change your mind again… making you right again.

        I really don’t understand people who are unwilling to change their minds… do they enjoy being wrong?

        It’s a really bad habit

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Rafael Nadal revealed he suffered from concerning breathing difficulties that hindered his ability to perform in the Indian Wells final. The Spaniard suffered a 6-3 7-6 (7-5) defeat to Taylor Fritz as the American inflicted the first defeat of 2022 on the Australian Open champion.

    “It’s tough for me to breathe. When I try to breathe, it’s painful and it’s very uncomfortable,” Nadal said. ”When I’m breathing, when I’m moving it’s like a needle all the time inside here. I get dizzy a little bit because it’s painful.

    “It’s a kind of pain that limits me a lot. It’s not only about pain, I don’t feel very well because it affects my breathing.

    Novak don’t got no breathing problems… Novak don’t got not toxic shit in his body…

    Given Nadal’s mockery of Novak —– this is a superb development…. ideally he doesn’t die… ideally he is forced to retire…so he has time to think….

    Or if we wanted to apply poetic justice… he meets Novak in the French Open … and he collapses a la Shane Warne as the crowd gasps in horror… and Novak looks at his lifeless body and murmurs to himself… tch tch … I told you so

    • Tim Groves says:

      For the record, Nadal in January: “I respect any opinions, however I try to follow the people who are prepared in each subject, not the people who are not,

      “I think that Djokovic’s opinion compared to mine on the subject are different, we’re in quite distant positions.

      “Perhaps many people have doubts on the side effects, but what we know is that if we had kept the pace we were at before the vaccine appeared, the death figure would be very high.”

      If Nadal was to come out publicly and say he believes he has a vax-related injury, it would be very interesting to see the MSM response, to see how quickly they would tear his reputation to sheds.

      Regarding the MSM, the governments and the corporations, there is a well-known quotation attributed to Solzhenitsyn that gets more apposite by the day. I’m sure we’ve all read or heard it:

      “We know they are lying, they know they are lying, they know we know they are lying, we know they know we know they are lying, but they are still lying.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I am seeing zero on this on any NZ media…

        I suspect he’ll be told to deny it’s the vax — because that would damage the program which is generally safe and preventing mass deaths — he is a MOREON so he will agree to that.

        We’ve not heard any more from those top flight footballers… they just fade off into the sunset in the prime of their careers.

        And the CovIDIOTS stagger down to the Injection Booth … begging for more.

  4. In retrospect, Woody Wilson should have allowed the Germans to keep the territories it gained from the Brest Litovsk agreement, which would have shorn USSR what they called “Pale of Settlement” , roughly corresponding to the current borders of Russian Republic.

    The Poles and Czechs lobbied Wilson so they would get independence for their countries, and unwittingly signed their own death sentence since what they did led to half a century of Communist rule and its residual damages.

    Wilson listening to the Poles and Czechs and denying Germany its huge gains in the east contributed to what we have today. It would have been better to have no Poland and no Czechoslovakia and a significantly smaller Russia/USSR.

    • Tim Groves says:

      Better? Better for who?

      Better for that old slavic farmer 1in 1995 who was approached by men from the governments of Poland and the USSR because the new border ran through the middle of his farmhouse?

      “Comrade,” they said. “As your farmhouse is right on the border, we are going to give you the option of having the border demarcated so that it is in Russia or in Poland. Please decide.”

      After thinking quietly for a few minutes, the old farmer said that, “if it is alright with everybody, I would prefer the farmhouse to be on the Polish side of the border.”

      “That’s fine, comrade,” the officials replied. “One last thing. Can you please tell us why you made this decision?”

      “Well,” said the farmer, frowning slightly.”The truth is, comrades,” he hesitated. “The truth is that I can’t stand the thought of having to go through any more of those long Russian winters!”

  5. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Australia Slaps Russia With Alumina Export Ban, Catapults Aluminum Prices Higher

    • I suppose the idea is that anything a country, such as Australia, decides to do is a good idea. It will hurt the Russia much more than it will hurt Australia.

      Australia now needs to find a different market for the ore it mines. With declining supplies of cheap-to-produce electricity, it is not clear that there will be as many places able to actually create aluminum from the ore.

  6. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Read this article. What is being described here is a system collapsing.

    Wheat prices soar on Ukraine fears, but U.S. growers can’t cash in

    CHICAGO (Reuters) – After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent global wheat futures soaring, U.S. farmer Vance Ehmke was eager to sell his grain.

    Local prices shot up roughly 30% to nearly $12 a bushel, about the highest Ehmke could recall in 45 years of farming near the western Kansas town of Healy.

    Instead of reaping a windfall, Ehmke found a commodities market turned upside down. He and his wife Louise told Reuters they couldn’t sell a nickel of their upcoming summer wheat harvest for future delivery. Futures prices for corn and wheat had rocketed so abruptly that many along the complex chain of grain handling – local farm cooperatives, grain elevators, flour millers and exporters – stopped buying for fear they couldn’t resell at a profit.

    Others couldn’t afford an industry-wide risk-management strategy known as hedging that keeps global commodities markets moving. Missiles falling in Ukraine had rocked that system, sending middlemen scrambling to shore up positions in the futures market that were costing them millions of dollars per day.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Which is why farmers have bin sites on their land, something Biblical as I recall, seven years of plenty and one year of want.

      JIT works until it doesn’t, eating is maybe seven days of JIT when it stops working. Guess on the seven days, too lazy to research.

      Dennis L.

    • Bobby says:

      Yup it’s called forced scarcity. It’s a Greedy Ape thing. Don’t blame God or the rest of the Universe….and so, while this catastrophe approaches where are the ‘WHO’s going to UN, WTF this UP’ when you need em, Ay?

      Busy trying to make money and take advantage while the vulnerable die off and the masses sit in apathy and call it entertainment.

      Like laughing watching others fall off a massive waterfall forgetting one is up stream in the same system.

      • Dennis L. says:

        If a person choses to live within their means, if they are not the grasshopper, what is their obligation to feed the grasshopper who ate all his grain and saved none? This increases GDP, and it penalizes the thrifty; in the end there are no thrifty and all starve; with some saved, there is hope.

        Not sure I understood you, hope this is close.

        There appears to be an undercurrent of resentment sometimes expressed here regarding those who are thrifty, they should share the portion of their life which they sacrificed to have a cushion. Vulnerable are often confused with grasshoppers, perhaps.

        Dennis L.

        • Dennis, there’s no one winning strategy in all contexts. That’s why there are still grasshoppers and there are still ants.

          Your stored wealth and mine are subject to all manner of human and animal predation, and are subject to other natural entropic forces.

        • Kowalainen says:

          It is rare to find resentment and envy among the competent.

          Productivity in difficult endeavors is a source of envy among the cretins engaged in WtP shenanigans, i.e, useless egotistic fantasy.

          Capitalism/market economy is one hellish realm for the useless eater ‘politicos’, henceforth they flock in various (N)GO’s, “influencers”, media and institutions where they can jockey for power without anything to show for besides the appalling narratives projected as a reflection of themselves.

          The tragedy is to observe innately thrifty and conscientious individuals get bogged down in the collective subconscious narrative of desiring status and prestige in and of the herd. Usually it is projected through females, which are sensitized to be impressed by the perception of status and prestige.

          Always leave spiritual and resources margins for flipping the double bird at whatever totalitarian BS heading your way. Which is where thrift and competence comes in useful.

        • Bobby says:

          Your right Dennis L, I didn’t give very good expression to what I intended.
          Too early in the morning perhaps at the time to get caught up in ideas about the looming shortages of wheat, was in fact about 06:00 …should’ve just made some porridge instead 😂
          Maybe a few grasshoppers as garnish.

          It is amazing producers fail to cash in on their product that’s sanctioned elsewhere and therefore in high demand because the supply chain see the purchase too high and to risky.

          If they sold there product at a reasonable price it would likely move.

    • Hubbs says:

      Thanks for this post. And yet if bad weather / drought ensues, then the farmer is left with nothing to harvest, in huge debt, and funable to afford to plant again the next year hoping for a better harvest to make up for his losses. This kind of possibility due to acts of God was the very reason a futures market was initially created. A sort of adjunct to crop insurance. But the futures market has grown into a perverted monster!

      • Dennis L. says:


        For me it still returns to the Biblical years of plenty and years of want. A grasshopper believes there will be no years of want.

        I am very optimistic, but at times liquidity in anything can be useful, it comes at a cost of wealth as it is a sunk cost.

        Dennis L.

    • We don’t think about the possibility of the market simply not being available because there is too much risk involved in trying to sell high-cost grain.

  7. Michael Le Merchant says:

    US retail on-highway diesel price since 1994 (weekly)×900

  8. A couple of music videos to lighten the mood:

    Strange paths we end up following.

    Was on a blog that looks at Ukraine from Russian viewpoint – there was a comment regarding evacuation cease fires in Mariupol and then this:

    “Some civilians have decided to Stay in Mariupol as Russian Humanitarian aid means they can!
    So it was on a monday morning the gas man came to call.”

    Flanders & Swann: The Gas Man Cometh (Music “Video”)

    So I bit, listend to the and was quite amused – the story of life in one silly ditty – (hidden allusions to entropy and all)

    Youtube then presented me with a catchy title halfway down the preview listing
    obviously could not resist hearing what they had to sing:

    Flanders & Swann – ‘First And Second Law’ (Music “Video”)

    enjoy & lighten up – there is so much good news in Harry’s posts today!

    ps: if someone (TIm?) enjoys and wants to repost such that preview window appears please feel free. And I challenge all to find similar topical (energy related) faux innanities and post the same. Perhaps even FE will be amused and stop being necessarily obnoxious.

  9. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Daniel Yergin says he was once shouted at by Vladimir Putin for asking about shale, a sensitive topic for the Russian leader. (Photo by Ryosuke Hanafusa)
    Q: How is the Ukraine crisis affecting the energy market?

    A: There is no more “business as usual” after what has happened. Putin’s destroyed what he spent 22 years building up, in terms of the Russian economy. Almost nobody really could imagine the scale of the punishment of the Russian invasion.

    This is an enormous miscalculation by Putin. He assumed that the dependence of Europe on Russian energy would be enough to prevent the Europeans from reacting as strongly as they did.

    One of his major goals has been to fragment and break up NATO. The result is just the opposite.

    We saw a 180-degree change in Germany. The very first step in the sanctions was postponing, or basically canceling, Nord Stream [2]. So this $11 billion pipeline is just going to lie under the Baltic Sea. It was one of his great goals, and this is another example of his miscalculation.

    Q: The Soviets were more careful about using energy during the Cold War.

    A: Even in the Cold War days, the Soviet Union and Russia always wanted to send a message that “our energy supplies are not political,” that “we’re a reliable supplier.” One big consequence of [the Ukraine conflict] is that the Europeans are going to make a very strong effort to reduce reliance on Russian gas.

    There are three different ways the Europeans will do it. One is by additional LNG supplies. The second is internal gas supplies, so there will be some effort, particularly in the North Sea, to step up European and British production.

    And then thirdly, this is going to be a big boost to the drive for renewables.

    We are concerned about this coming winter in Europe. They will go into the winter with low stocks, and they’ll need to build those up. So in the short term, it’s a challenge for Europe. No one knows what the endgame is here.

    Q: How about oil?

    A: Russia exports seven and a half million barrels a day — about half of that to NATO countries. Several million barrels of oil have been disrupted. Black Sea tankers are leaving with Russian oil but not being permitted to unload because companies are saying they will not buy Russian oil.

    Russian oil is going to be disrupted for the foreseeable future. You can’t get a letter of credit. A bank doesn’t want to take the risk. But there’s a new element in this: reputation and values.

    It’s not just the oil companies. Other companies are pulling out, too. Everything that’s been tried to integrate Russia with the global economy is being undone. Russia is basically now being unplugged or disconnected from the world economy.

    I fear we could have a scramble for oil supplies. That’s why coordination between governments and industry is so important right now.

    Q: If there is a scramble for oil, where is the alternative oil going to come from? Who will replace Russia?

    A: Number one, from the Arab Gulf countries. The diplomacy now is very intense. You could get 2 million barrels a day more from the Gulf countries.

    Secondly, if there is a nuclear deal with Iran, which seems close, that brings a million barrels a day of oil into the market.

    Third are the strategic stocks, which were created for disruptions.

    And fourth, we will see significant growth over the course of the year of U.S. production. U.S. output over the year will increase by about 900,000 to a million barrels a day. Those are the key numbers.

    And you get some more oil, in smaller volumes, from Canada, Brazil and Guyana.

    Q: In your book “The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations,” you wrote extensively on Ukraine.

    A: At the end of the Cold War, Russia, Ukraine, Europe and natural gas was the central area of contention. It was where the great tension between Russia and the West was.

    Putin thought the West is in decline. He thought the U.S. was preoccupied with its domestic issues. He thought Europe was preoccupied with domestic issues.

    What happens in international crises so often is miscalculation and people don’t really see the consequences. [Putin is] isolated, and he’s probably in that state where people only tell him what he wants to hear.

    He doesn’t see very many people. He has a small circle of people around him, apparently, who have similar backgrounds in the KGB. It seems that his economic advisers were completely shut out of this.

    When people come to see him, he sits at that ridiculously long table. He’s very afraid of COVID

    From and interview excerpt posted on Nikkie

    • I can believe that Putin is afraid of COVID.

      I am not sure I believe too much of the rest of this. Yergin says,”One of his major goals has been to fragment and break up NATO. The result is just the opposite.”

      Maybe his goal was to show how ineffective NATO really is. Breaking it up seems unlikely. The European members of NATO are all big energy importers.

      “Who will replace Russia?”

      Really, no one. Not the list Yergin names.

      The idea that Europe can work around its natural gas problem is also very strange.

      • deimetri says:

        “Russia is basically now being unplugged or disconnected from the world economy.”

        Except from the billion + in India or the billion + in China and everyone else who is going to ignore the sanctions..guess these people don’t count as the “world economy”.

        Now it is easy for people to talk and virtue signal, let’s see how well they take the economic pain of actually following through…I imagine it will be a different story..

        • Those billions use Russia’s resources very much more sparingly than those in the US, Europe and Australia.

          • Student says:

            My impression is that Europe will discover that green energy is more an ideology than a reality.
            I think that green energy ideology has been a way for ‘good European thinkers’ to believe that degrow was avoidable with very good European smart brains.

      • banned says:

        They let the masses consume like all of the mideast oil you got to save SOME for the ruling class. I mean cmon. Fair is fair. And they havnt been good. Not all got their hybrid trans shots or got QR codes implanted in their wazoo. It might be different if they were behaving. Performance and THEN the reward. Thats the way life works. The last little bit of oil gets put away for later. Sorry.

    • Lastcall says:

      ‘And then thirdly, this is going to be a big boost to the drive for renewables.’

      Another clown. Was Putin meant to wait until it was a fait accompli by NATO on his front lawn?
      I think that Miss Nuland and her nasty’s miscalculated.

      Where does this dude get his lunch money from?

    • MM says:

      What exactly is an oil drilling enterprise?
      Some diesel engines, some tubes, a hardened drill with diamonds, some pumps, some lubricants etc.
      Actually an oil drilling enterprise was established in Texas some 150 years ago.
      Tlaking me into “The Russians can not drill oil without the Schlumperger Corp.” is just plain nonsense.
      You think that Haber Bosch still is a mistery to graduated engineers ?
      You think Standard Oil still needs a contract with IG Farben to have synthetic Rubber?

      Running a C:A:R:E parrafine enterprise (look it up for ourself please) THAT is a challenge.
      Or a Hydrogen facility or a LNG Facility if you want.

      Engineering today is not of ANY problem in any place of the world. It is just “Access” to “Deposists” that is highly politiciised and in the end : financialized.

    • Jane says:

      What are you smoking??

      I want some!

  10. Rodster says:

    James Howard Kunstler goes off in this weeks post.

    “National Assisted Suicide”

    The defining moment last week in America’s ongoing mental health crisis was U Penn swimmer Lia Thomas’s record-setting win in the NCAA women’s 500-yard freestyle championship race. It was celebrated in the sports news as a thing — that is, an alleged feature of reality. Lia Thomas began “transitioning” in 2019 when “she” was a full-grown male human being, otherwise known as a “man,” and was already competing in men’s NCAA swimming events. One thing you can conclude from this is that the board of the NCAA is insane.

    It’s not the only institution in our country that has lost its mind. Are you comfortable with that? Outside of certain fairy-tales involving naked emperors, there is but one greater instance of a people being so willingly insulted by falsehood, namely, the still-continuing campaign to “vaccinate” and “boost” the public against Covid-19 with a genetic cocktail that doesn’t work to prevent illness or transmission of disease and has already killed or injured many thousands of people.

    Yet, they’re still out there pimping for the vaxxes: Rochelle Walensky of the CDC, Dr. Anthony Fauci, Mary Basset (New York Commissioner of Public Health), and many other officials in other lands. This is a major part of the scripted suicide of the USA, along with the rest of Western Civ. Our government’s own Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) now lists a total of 24,177 pericarditis and myocarditis cases for all of year 2021, and 11,829 cases for just January and February of 2022. Do you see an ominous trend there? Those are but two deadly conditions linked to the vaxxes; there are over a thousand more.

    The deluded people getting boosted now are taking on-board additional toxic spike proteins to the ones they already acquired in the first two shots. Might one predict that quite a few of them will develop a horrifying array of bodily disorders and die or become disabled in the next two years? It might soon even get hard for the Woked-up, vaxxed-up, Trump-maddened “blue” multitudes to ignore the impending mass murder they have been subjected to.

    Read the rest here:

    • I like this paragraph:

      Our country is interested only in dissolving boundaries — geographical, as in our boundary with Mexico, behaviorally, as in the boundary between male and female, psychologically, as in the boundary between reality and fantasy, and existentially, as in being alive or dead. And now Russia, at considerable cost, has to literally teach the USA a lesson in the importance of boundaries. They are going to complete their operation in Ukraine and they’ll likely work-around the “sanctions” heaped on them. Their part of the world these days has all the production, a great many valuable commodities, and most of the world’s population.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Our government’s own Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) now lists a total of 24,177 pericarditis and myocarditis cases for all of year 2021, and 11,829 cases for just January and February of 2022.

      We could annualize that out rounding it to 72,000…. I’m thinking 6000 per month will ramp up as the year progresses… the sky is the limit

  11. Michael Le Merchant says:

    The spread between the 2y yield-3m yield has just broken the 2008 level.

    The market is expecting a more aggressive FED as inflation is out of control.

    • I see WTI is back up to $112.

      • MM says:

        The sad truth is: without FF there can be no renwables.
        And even if there were renewables, they could not enable an ever growing pie because they themselves will take a lot of pie.
        Smaller pie is something that does not exist.
        The Central Banks wil take care of this with “whatever is necessary”.

        Let’s see what a “whatever” is…

  12. Michael Le Merchant says:

    South Korea’s Jump in Gas Imports Shows War’s Fallout

    South Korea’s gas imports jumped 114.3% in the first 20 days of March compared to a year earlier, customs data showed Monday. That contrasts with a mere 13% increase for the entire month of February.

    That’s not all. Imports of crude oil soared 57.8% and those of coal shot up 68.7%. The rapid increases show how much costlier energy has become since Russia invaded Ukraine.

    The figures also suggest the race is on among countries to secure fuel needed to continue their economic recoveries. For a trade-dependent nation like South Korea, keeping the costs of energy low is crucial in order to ensure a trade surplus and shore up its currency so investors can stay interested and engaged.

    “Without oil prices normalizing, it’s hard to expect a return to surplus,” said Yoon Yeo-sam, an analyst at Meritz Securities in Seoul. “This isn’t a problem of Korea’s trade. It’s a Russian risk.”

  13. Michael Le Merchant says:

    German PPI jumps 25.9% YoY in Feb. This was the highest increase ever since the start of the stats in 1949. PPI ex-energy rose 12.4% YoY.×4096

      • Dennis L. says:

        I am seeing that in machine tools, farm equipment and computer components – when they can be sourced. Asus has a motherboard priced on their web site, very reasonable, next line, not available.

        You have referenced the price idea, what if quoted price refers to an item that cannot be purchased.

        Guess on my part, the bid/ask spread is going to become larger, one of the large banks(JPM?) has a huge spread on nickel last I saw; you can buy it but bring gold.

        Note: I previously referred to the nickel/nickel trade, buy US nickels, sell for scrap. Per Barron’s, a nickel by weight is now worth $.16 and this does not include the value of the other metals – I think. Haven’t checked that one. So idea, purchase a container of nickels, damn tough to steal and one can always purchase groceries.

        There is an article somewhere where a commodities trader claims to have done this in real time a few years back.

        Dennis L.

        • Hubbs says:

          My last tenants (physicians) ran off and left at least 6 computer towers and monitors all running Windows 97 I think. I wonder in view of chip shortages, trade disruption etc., will computers, like used cars, become more valuable? I was almost going to dispose of them at the recycling center this week but now I wonder……should I hang on to them?

          • Absolutely hold on. In fact one great in demand side hustle will be computer repair.

            • Dennis L. says:


              Not trying to be a know it all, don’t know all that much. Have been in small computers since S-100 buss; watch the first War Games movie, built on of those from kit, ugh.

              Lately, I cannot mix and match components, some of the old stuff does not like the new stuff and getting old stuff to work with old stuff is an interesting project.

              Took apart a fairly new 43″‘ monitor, half of it was dark, it now works; I don’t have a clue what I fixed or what fixed itself. There was nothing to lose, was looking at it with a saws all so it would fit in my trunk to recycling center. Now I have an extra, takes up space.

              Tried to fix a laptop once, no joy, almost impossible to get the damn things back together.

              All the best,

              Dennis L.

            • Do any of you have a good idea of what you would actually use these computers for, anyway, in a SHTF scenario? Look at digital pictures or e-books? Play solitaire?

              Maybe I’m “hard of imagining”, but I’m struggling to think of vital stand-alone uses.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              This requires a big dose of normalcy bias

          • Dennis L. says:

            HIPPA comes to mind; I was a fanatic about this, never had an incident.

            If you have possession, what is your responsibility? I don’t have a clue.

            Dennis L.

          • drb says:

            You can always install Linux in them. then they will be modern computers, except for speed. A 50 USD 1 Tbyte external drive and they will be modern also storage wise.

            • Yes this is only way of extending their usefulness if you have an identified need. Otherwise only if have excessive cheap storage space, lots of spare time and similar existing systems that need spare parts.

              If want long term reserve computing reliability I would be more inclined to expend effort and resources on stockpiling and standardizing on raspberry pi systems (not even latest generation) Throw a few spares into a hermetically sealed and nitrogen sparged container may have same computing spare parts/backup hardware capability for many decades. While not free, after accounting for value of time spent getting to work will probably be most cost effective approach.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’d also be sure to stockpile all the gear required to keep those spent fuel ponds cool… and lots and lots and lots of diesel – to ensure there is power to keep the facilities operational… and user manuals?

            • MM says:

              Every warlord will need a good bookkeeping system.
              The question is if he wants to “purchase” it from you.

            • MM says:

              You can install whatever you like but if you can not deliver the system to a location more than 250 miles away, your bet might not pay off.

              It might be very well possible that a 5″ Floppy drive wil make you 1000 Bucks but if your client is 10.000 miles away and there is not yet any “sailing” as in “Die Hanse” or “The Venetians” there will be no business.

              Meaninng: In principle yes but not in the forseeable future being less than 10 – 20 years.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Ex energy … hmmmmm….

      Just filled up the Bat Mobile – it wasn’t on empty … NZD170 bucks….and that’s after Donkey cut the taxes on petrol bringing down the price 30 cents/litre

      M Fast is on me to cut back — have committed to one less VIP room session / week

  14. Kowalainen says:

    Compared to whom?


    Everything is relative.
    Yes, even space and time itself.

    Say the finest Tier 1 Colombian nose candy directly from the ‘source’, compared with ruthlessly cut and gasoline contaminated talcum powder in the hypocritical pocket of a boringly stereotypical on egotistical fantasies doped up vax peddler.

    Did I get everything?


    Let’s go Normal!


  15. hillcountry says:

    Brian Balkus is a market intelligence principal at an energy infrastructure firm based in Orange County, California. He has some very interesting things to say that pertain to the subject of Gail’s latest. A few excerpts from his March 18th article titled – The Multipolar World Dies in Ukraine.

    The first new nuclear reactor built in Europe in 15 years went online in Finland this month; the project started in 2005 and was delivered 13 years after it was initially scheduled to be completed. Nuclear is no longer an alternative in any time frame that would matter for Europe.

    When LNG facilities currently under construction are completed later this year, the U.S. will have the greatest peak export capability in the world at 13.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) per the U.S. Energy Information Agency.

    LNG complexes are both fantastically expensive—typical construction costs range from $25 billion to $30 billion—and fantastically complex to build. The drop in prices led to investors refusing to fund new projects on a speculative basis—they required project developers to have supply contracts in place which led to a virtual halt to construction. In the U.S. alone, there have been more than 20 stalled LNG export terminal projects until recently.

    The severe economic sanctions against Russia by the West are forcing much of the world to reconfigure its assumptions about trade dependence, especially in energy. Any illusions Russia had about its vast energy, metals, and crop resources shielding it from severe economic fallout after its invasion of Ukraine have vanished. Russia has found it isn’t enough to have the resources—you need multiple buyers competing for these resources in a competitive market, as well as the project funding, managerial expertise, and technology needed to execute complex multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects. Russia lacks many of these enabling pieces and has been dependent on the West to supply them.

    Russia has some resource extraction expertise, but it relies heavily on Western firms to design, build, and maintain its energy infrastructure. Losing access to the expertise of Western oilfield services, construction, and engineering firms like Schlumberger, Halliburton, and Baker Hughes, along with Western technology ranging from drive motors to process automation software is a significant blow. The technological underpinnings of Russia’s oil and gas industry are primarily supplied by the West, but it lacks the process knowledge needed to reproduce them domestically. China may be unwilling or unable to provide replacements anytime soon.

    • Interesting!

      I wonder whether the last two sentences are true:

      The technological underpinnings of Russia’s oil and gas industry are primarily supplied by the West, but it lacks the process knowledge needed to reproduce them domestically. China may be unwilling or unable to provide replacements anytime soon.

      Whatever replacements that China can provide will help keep the world’s production operating. The replacements may come over a period of time.

  16. Rodster says:

    While everyone is focused on Ukraine there is a much larger humanitarian crisis unfolding and is being ignored by the Media and that is …Yemen !

  17. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Chipmakers face two-year shortage of critical equipment.

    “Chipmakers’ multibillion-dollar expansion plans will be constrained by a shortage of critical equipment over the next two years as the supply chain struggles to step up production, according to one of the industry’s most important suppliers.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Global shipping industry has no option but pass on fast rising costs, says top Maersk official…

      ““We saw a more than 70 per cent increase in our fuel costs, and over the last eight weeks, we’ve seen those fuel costs continue to escalate,” said Christopher Cook, Managing Director, Maersk UAE. “So there is no question that this is going to have a ripple effect on the price of operating.”

      ““We also see that there is a lot of shortage of supply of vessels that are pushing the cost of chartering ships. So, a number of those input costs are going up. Of course, it affects all of us in the supply chain.””

      • Bobby says:

        Charge more for a subsequent diminishing reserve to make money and ignore it was self imposed through sanctions, but force those with less to pay for it, and choose to believe that that is possible. Insane.

        The captain goes down with the ship holding a self defeating virtue pose.

        Apes and other Chimp makers seem to have the attention span of a goldfish….hay let’s create a crisis. It’s getting boring creating catastrophes in tea cups. Anyone want to play intercontinental ballistic nuclear war….with someone who’s insane?…they got that twitchy finger, cos they they know they gunna win even if they lose.. because they’re *#@$& insane!

    • Imagine if Russia got tired of being sanctioned and belittled by the West – it would be an interesting assymetric response to give 24hrs warning to lift all sanctions and agree to NATO dissolution or each of the 10 top semiconductor manufacturers in world/Tiawan would find hypersonic missles demolishing their facilities with no intent to otherwise afterward interact with Tiawan. Talk about supply chain problems for the West!

      Mainland China could hardly complain – they would be left with the only remaining highest end semiconductor operations (TSMC has factories on mainland) – Russia has a lagging but extant and militarily sufficient semiconductor industry.. Dont see the West starting a nuclear war over a limited strike and doesnt have the conventional capability to respond.

      Russia better off on their own – Domestic energy mostly supplied by enormous NGas reserves (look it up their NGas production nearly zero correlation with attempts to fit to Hubbert curve – ie production is not following typical exponential growth leading to peak – gonna be pulling out gas for a long long time)

      See link below Figure 30 & 46 Russian oil domestic demand less than ~1/3 of production. Look at decline curves of only currently producing fields with current tech bottom line of yellow zone in Fig 30 – no future development ==> 2030 production still of 9 Mbb/day or => domestic demand still less than 33 to 38% of expected production depending on if “stated policy” or “sustainable” column used from Fig 46.

      (look at similar curves for US, Canada (wonder why only go to 2030?) and the World (Figs 18, 19, & 7 respectively) and projected demands – not such a rosy picture!!!

      Next link article say 19 years of production left in existing Russian fields at current conditions/technology in early 2021.

      Hell, Russia has so much NGas that they could make syn Gas/Diesel using existing proven tech for a long time after their “natural” mined oil runs out. (and have current FF resources to build it) – Lets not even talk about them deciding to no longer export nuclear fuel assemblies and keeping for their own domestic plants – they have so much FF they could continue to build Nuke plants and have experience in limiting excessive safety controls lol (somehow still have all that Nuclear technology experience base maintained) I read 20% of US Nuclear electricitry is dependent on ANNUAL supply via Russia exports of fuel assemblies. That would be quite a blow.

      If I were Putin, would stop all exports of FF and Nuke assembiies sooner rather than later – sure part of economy dependent on export revenues would have to adjust but could print money (backed up by existing energy reserves) to build/maintain domestic economy given they have >3x the energy production as required by current domestic economy. IF not feeling secure, could probably 10x their production of hypersonic missles and other military equipment to fully employ all Russians – who is gonna come and take their oil and gas against their convential and nuclear capability ???

      Believe Russia currently on about 1/3 the per capita energy use of US – they have lots of room to keep economy/domestic dissapative system growing by increased domestic only use of FF – still an industial production and resource extractive capable country – US not so much if our financial sector goes. Probably when taken alone Russia situation analagous to the point US was at in 1972 when LTG was realized and solutions proposed. If they have a better understanding of situation and remain in isolation they still have potential to avoid overshoot and plan for a different future.

      If Russia does not take this path then will soon be clear that their oligarchy is aligned with WEF Great Reset and all is a simulation. If not and truely ongoing non-globalist potential politically, then they may feel need to attempt to remain linked with China & India to reduce immediate conflict over resources, but this seems very disadvantageous on a energy/capita and future growth potential basis given China/Indias huge populations and current statuses as energy importers. We shall see!

      As for Russia needing US oil tech to realize their resource base – hell since 1990’s collapse they have recovered such that able to reengineered supersonic bombers built by USSR for which all production and prior engineering plans were lost – they are ongoing high tech in aerospace and military hardware with complex electronic control systems using 25 nm domestic emp hardened semiconductor manufacturing and domestic supply of rare earth metals (able to do high tech with lagging semiconductor tech) (Western programmers so lazy use hardware power with lousy inefficient software – a good programmer – Russian acknowledged as some of best – can get 2 or 3 orders of magnitude performance requriements out of inferior hardware if scale back to necessities (lose the pretty graphics lol) and optimize code) – they will figure out and manufacture oil production tech/hardware as required all on their own – they have the engineering educational infrastructure and orientation that west has lost – until now hasnt been necessary but Russia seems to step up when forced to do the necessary – look at ag – before 2014 sanctions they imported food – when sanctioned and requried to produce they did and now amongst leaders in export of food. Same will happen with oil production technology and equipment manufacture

      • I am not convinced this kind of analysis “works.”

        The whole system has to hold together, otherwise the analyses such as those done as part of the Shift Project greatly overestimate the amount of fossil fuels truly available. Governments need to remain in place; there needs to be a functioning international trading system. The financial system needs to work properly. Different countries have to be able to continue to work together, rather than fighting, as if they were fighting over too few chairs in the game “musical chairs.”

        I see economic growth limits as hitting because energy consumption per capita stops rising. Once this happens, the economy stops growing and starts on its path to collapse. Many people assume that business as usual can continue regardless of how little fossil fuels are produced. This is where the Peak Oilers tend to go wrong, for example.

        If the whole system cannot be kept going, the least efficient parts of the economy will tend to collapse first. Europe seems to rank high in the contest for “least efficient.” There may be a core region that can continue longer than the rest. I have been guessing that at least parts of China, Russia, and perhaps some other Asian countries might make up a core that could continue for a while longer.

        • MM says:

          In principle I understand your view of Europe but a lot of what them Europeans do is engineering and they still are quite good at it because it consists in part of “digging into historical achievements”. This can absolutely be seen in the development of “the musical industry”. At about 2000 it simply stopped to create anything new but just digs old stuff out from the archives.

          Actually Europe is the biggest “archive” of that kind in the world to position itself in a world that has been “Tavistocked” into being an obedient slave society to be ruled by knowing elites.
          Where do them get the Champagne from?

          China and all the other “Asian” countries can never bring about any “technological progress” because the people there (today!) lack the idea of what it means to create progress.
          I know it, I have been working with Indians, Pakistanis… They are completely useless. (sorry for souding racist here).

          The people most adherent to “orderly structure” on this planet today are the Germans and the Russians. Sorry guys.
          That might change in 5 to 10 generations and I can understand that this is a desired outcome but currently: without them 2 nothing will move to the betterment of this world.
          Yada Yada. Nazi,Nazi.

          Europe currently struggles but in a future world without creativity when Germany and Russia have finally succumbed to the great new resetted wiorld, at least it has the largest stock to draw from.

          • I would agree that Asians tend to be taught to conform to group norms and not try to excel in any way. This helps keep total energy consumption low; there is no need for special “advanced” or “slow” classes. Promotion comes based on long-term adherence to norms, generally to the most senior member of a group. Elders tend to be revered, unlike in the US. Asians are good at reverse engineering, but not at engineering in innovative ways.

          • we live in and are supported by an extractive economic system

            when the rate of extraction falls below that necessary to support us

            our society will collapse in on itself.

            no elites involved–nothing complicated to work out, just the end result of turning the planet into cash, while in a state of denial that we were doing it.

    • Trying to make the whole supply chain work is the problem.

  18. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Nigeria in turmoil as electricity and petrol supply crisis escalates by day.

    “Nigeria’s fuel shortage and a month-long power blackout have converged into a perfect storm scenario, paralysing the economy of Africa’s most populous country, causing social anxiety and raising questions about the country’s self-sufficiency…”

  19. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Ukraine war sparks food shortages in Arab nations as wheat prices soar.

    “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made life even harder for Fadia Hamieh, a Lebanese university lecturer who was already struggling to make ends meet in a country with a failing economy. Since the start of March, flour has disappeared from the shops and the price of bread has increased by 70 per cent.”

  20. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Thailand, Pakistan, Vietnam among most vulnerable countries to energy shock…

    “Most of the Asia-Pacific will experience headwinds in two ways: higher oil and commodity prices and therefore sustained inflation – given that most of the region imports energy.”

  21. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Sanctions on Russia are already starting to worsen an acute cost of living crisis in the UK.

    “Despite limited dependence on Russian imports, surging global prices are expected to erode living standards even further. The average UK household will experience a £2,553 drop in income this year.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Thousands protest over soaring prices across Spain…

      “The rallies, which took place in Spain’s main cities, were called by the far-right Vox party which sought to tap into growing social discontent over the spiralling cost of living that has left many families struggling to pay their bills.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Greek farmers on tractors protest ‘unbearable’ fuel, fertilizer costs.

        “Hundreds of Greek farmers, some on tractors, protested in Athens on Friday, demanding more tax cuts and subsidies to combat high fuel and fertilizer prices which have soared since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        This is a very good article because it demonstrates why the Elders have chosen extermination.

        “Sanchez, you’re rubbish, bring down our bills!” they shouted, between patriotic cries of “Long live Spain!” at a rally demanding government action to lower prices.

        “We have the worst possible government.. It’s not even a government, it’s a misery factory… which plunders and extorts workers through abusive taxes,” Vox leader Santiago Abascal told the rally to rousing cheers.

        We know that this situation was not caused by the government — we’ve breached the Limits to Growth … the math no longer works — BAU is no longer viable.

        The situation is going to progressively worsen… and the masses will become increasingly anger… eventually it will boil over into uncontrollable chaos… mass strikes… mass protests… the system will seize up.

        And the country will unravel… the police and military will be unable … or unwilling… to fight back the hordes… who will number in the millions.

        When you have that many people who are so desperate that tear gas does not stop them … you have a very dangerous situation … there are way more of them than there are cops… and once they reach a tipping point they will tear the cops to shreds… before that happens the cops will walk away.

        Then there is nothing between the surging hordes and hated government officials… they will swarm into parliament and rip them to pieces… they will hang them from lamp posts … remember Chow Chess Q? That’s what happens when you lose the mandate from heaven …. and the people are hungry.

        The Elders are not immune from this — just because they have the money machine and the power now — once the mirage shatters they are nothing more than a bunch of wrinkled old goats… with no protection.

        Think of all their minions who have done what they were told over the years… gotta be more than a few of them looking to kick the old dogs now that they have no power… their body guards will quickly abandon them when they realize the gig is up …

        If you were an Elder… do you want to end up with a knife up your arse like Gaddafi? I don’t think so…

        Much better to exterminate 8B – including yourself — it definitely stops a whole lot of mayhem.

        • Xabier says:

          I expect my father to keel over from a heart attack very soon: he’s a dreadful miser, and will do almost anything to save just 1 euro – and now these energy bills in Spain!

          Here, the price of firewood I cut in the old woodland here remains constant in sweat and time.

          And, unlike paying bills, it’s sheer pleasure: no Covidiots, the dog, a sharp axe…..

          • Ed says:

            The old woodlands of Cambridge. I get a laugh out of that.

            • Xabier says:

              First documented in 1130, but much older I suspect- woodland is very rare here, in fact.

              The neighbouring county of Essex – the first to be settled by the Saxons after Rome – had the big beautiful trees (see the paintings of Constable).

              Yes, I sometimes laugh at where I now find myself, doing things I never would have imagined.

              But I’m happy with an axe in hand, I think the Basque genes have fired up!

          • Replenish says:

            Sorry to hear about your Dad’s struggles. Maybe there is another old codger nearby who could benefit from your sharp axe.. a “good deed for the day.”

            My Dad’s 7 year old yellow Labrador just died suddenly a few weeks ago. We buried her in the yard in the rain.. surreal.. very sad.. he lost his best friend. He’s starting to feel his age. I reach out to him daily since the dog passed. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust.

            At 75 years old, He and I still cut and split 2-3 chords of wood together in the late Summer for his wood stove. Each year I take a picture of him after the pile is done making a pose or shoot a video of him in action grumbling about something. I hope you and your Dad find some peace together.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Hey Mirror – why don’t you organize some sanctions on Fast Eddy… block his bank accounts… lock his credit cards… if he had a yacht you could impound it…

    • Costs were very high, even before the Ukraine invasion.

  22. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Triple shock forces the world to rethink globalisation. Countries are scrambling to economically realign and become more self-sufficient.

    “Vladimir Putin’s attack is now the third major shock to globalisation and supply chains in almost as many years as Trump’s trade wear, Covid and now Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have shaken faith in world trade.

    ““We’ve reached peak globalisation,” says Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.”

  23. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Soaring Prices for Everything Used to Make Food Brings More Inflation…

    “Things are so dire that the planet could be facing a “tipping point” when it comes to long-term stability for global food supplies, according to Beth Bechdol, deputy director-general of the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.”

  24. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Global lenders see widespread economic fallout.

    “The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other top global lenders warned Friday of “extensive” economic fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and expressed horror at the “devastating human catastrophe”.”

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    The virus is RAGING! It’s an INFERNO!

    Conditions are perfect for the emergence of Devil Covid… absolutely perfect

    • Interesting article. The number of people with COVID seems to be reaching all time highs. It is not clear whether they are not clearing the virus and it is hanging around indefinitely. Data is not available by vaccine status, unfortunately.

  26. Student says:

    1) Gennadiy Druzenko, head of the Ukrainian military medical service, boasts on the Ukraine 24 channel that he “gave strict orders to castrate all wounded” Russians “because they are cockroaches, not humans.”

    2) Tortured and killed all Zelensky’s political opponents.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    South Korea infections/cases as of today March 20th 2022; in spite of South Korea being among the highest vaccinated nations globally, boosted too, and 4th rounds (ludicrously); 400,000 per day
    Why? We have told these nations and these inept public health people 13 months now, that we must stop use of the non-sterilizing vaccine as will drive variants like OMI, BA.1, now BA.2,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/

    • Tim Groves says:

      South Korea has had five million cases (positive test cases) in the last two weeks. That’s about one person in ten of their population. It’s amazing what you can achieve with 86% vaccinated and 62% boosted.Time to start rolling out that forth shot.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Fauci will be shouting at the team meeting ‘look at Korea — see – SEE! — now that is success. You guys need to aspire to get every country emulating the Koreans… 1 out of 20 infected is not enough! We need this Devil Covid guys… we need it soon. Now get back out there and shoot up those 5 year olds… get those boosters numbers up — whatever it takes! ‘

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In honour of Nadal. I hope he is resting … he probably has convinced himself that he just needs a big ripper of a fart and the pain will go away.

  28. Bobby says:

    The more diverse the contributions at OFW the better.
    Particularly in the context we each provide an experience from a different life path and part of the world as well as a unique stage on the journey.

    If we lose just one person who is otherwise contributing, it diminishes us all.
    I admit sometimes I get ‘P’issed at FE, at other times he cracks me up.
    Then I find myself saying ‘beware the Ides of March’ isn’t that funny there is some wisdom there in finding out why.
    Most of Mirrors posts are stimulating too, maybe not the real longins, but there is always an interesting take, just depends on how much time you have to invest in reading through.
    Energy goes onto making those larger contributions so sometimes it’s worth while cracking it open to find out why.

    My response is my responsibility. Most of us are adults, (most of the time) and more often than not we can laugh and share our views in a healthy way without making Gail the gatekeeper or her site into a scapegoated of our egos or ape like behaviour.

    I would not like to be subject to continuous ridicule as some have been.
    Whether I’m asking for it or not is another question.
    We are social beings even more reclusiveness ones like myself.
    Sometimes we all have a tendency to take a wrong view.
    Isn’t that interesting? Maybe we didn’t get enough sleep, ate something unhealthy or got triggered.
    Much can and will go wrong in this vulnerable human form.
    Then it’s up to us to find a right view. No one is going to do that for us.
    If your at least one score in ten, your already an expert.

    There needs to be limits on rampant insults.
    No one is right all the time.
    IIIl will is simply a poison.
    It reduces everyone, but affects those generating it the most.
    It’s a simple truth.

    Healthy debate in the context of strong opposing opinions is the rear GEM that is OFW
    It is a bastion for many and a place of expression as well.
    Let’s keep it that way.

    If we get offended it is kind of up to us to get unoffended
    And that’s the rub.

    I leave you all with this
    A teaching from my ten year old daughter.

    May Your Days Go Well

    • Curt says:

      Thanks I concur, exactly.

      The more diversity in opinion the better.

      Even if OFW a minority topic site (concerning pretty much everyone on the planet though), it shouldn’t be an echo chamber.

      Banning FE would certainly be very wrong.

    • Dennis L. says:


      Well put, thank you.

      Dennis L.

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Ominous signs week 11’s UK COVID Omicron data; compared to wks 5-10; it is past driving competitively advantaged variants; is this idiosyncratic? or are we now damaging ‘acquired-adaptive’ & ‘innate’?

    The vaccine caused BA.2, Scotland banned this data as it was too catastrophic and revealing and now UK will soon do same by end of March; we are damaging INNATE immunity; devastating for humanity

  30. monk says:

    With regards to unwanted comments, there are a number of things you can do. You can flag certain words or phrases to require moderation before being posted. You can also set WordPress to automatically delete comments with certain words / phrases. Do not block an IP address. However, you can block an email address (if the commenter has one). See this for more information:

    • I flag quite a few posts to require moderation, right now.

      I also have set a very few things to be dumped into “trash.” I discovered this approach didn’t work well, however, and I no longer use it. When I look at “trash,” from time to time I find perfectly normal posts from frequent commenters that have been placed in “trash.” I rescue them and display them. I don’t really understand what could have led them to be dumped into the trash.

      I have blocked very occasional commenters with serious problems.

      • Tim Groves says:

        You know what I think, Gail. I think you are wonderful. It’s a thankless task to moderate comments, and it’s a full-time job too. I don’t know how you find the energy to keep going day after day like this.

        While your efforts are sincerely appreciated, as I’m sure you realize, it’s also true that we tend to take your many kindnesses to us for granted. Probably, we won’t appreciate the full extent of what you are doing for us until you stop doing it. That is going to be a sad day for many people. They may think that like Google or Facebook, you will always be there for us all the time, but you are running this blog all on your own, and you don’t have a spare to provide backup if you are forced to take a break.

        In my opinion, this is the best of all possible “doomer” blogs, and the comments section is the best of all possible comments sections. It has coalesced around your work like planets coalesce around a star. The process has been natural, organic and voluntary. The people who come here come here because they like it here. The people who don’t come here don’t come here because they either don’t want to come here or they don’t know the place exists. Everyone who comes here to read comments or to make them does so because they get something positive out of it.

        Could the comments section be improved? Certainly.

        How could that be done? By commenters making an effort to post better comments. Better being a matter personal judgement. And again, in my opinion, comments calling for other people to be banned are some of the least valuable comments around.

        Could the comments section be improved by banning or otherwise restricting some commenters? Possibly, but it could turn out to be an “own goal”. Making more rules and enforcing them could get you a more well-behaved class of kiddies, but could lose you a lot of the spontaneity that is a characteristic of the place at present. And it would be more time-consuming as well as mentally tiring for you to have to think about whether to ban this or edit that. All in all, there is considerable value in having a basically free and only lightly moderated forum.

        Some people may disagree with what I’m saying her. And that’s precisely my point. Disagreement is a feature of a good forum, not a bug. From long experience, I have found that all the best forums are very lightly moderated, and all the heavily moderated ones are sterile places where half of the comments are from the amen chorus telling the blog owner how much they agree with something they wrote and how well they wrote it, and the other half telling anecdotes along the lines of “the same thing happened to me….” I wouldn’t want to see that happening here.

        • Sam says:

          Disagreements yes …. Personal attacks because someone is arguing a different opinion no! That’s where everything goes off the rails!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            What about if someone portrays themselves as an intelligent person — but refuses to answer questions?

        • lurker says:

          as a long-term lurker, i entirely agree with Tim’s sentiments here. thanks for hosting OFW, Gail.

        • Thank you Tim – as always the epitome of balance and wisdom

          balance not found by standing on the fulcrum your entire life

          have to venture out to the extremes and deal with/gain experience with the instability before having any semblance of understanding

          In the real physical world trolls & personal attacks have to be handled with a different set of rules than here in a virtual voluntary space. Here “sticks & stone dont exist so not possible to have broken bones and truely words cannot hurt you unless you are so thin skinned (or neurotically/anxiously self doubting) to internalize and do self harm”

          It seems that the general rule of thumb in blogosphere is: best way to handle a poster that you consider a troll is to ignore – only by having a thin skin and getting emotionally distraught or responding/rewarding the troll with your expression of dismay is there any “damage” (and none of it is to the troll.)

          I guess many here never raised children. If you give all your attention to the negative behaviors then that is how they continue to seek to get their rewards – the child must be pushed in the direction of using its considerable talents positively by giving it due (but not overwhelming) attention when desired behavior is exhibited or diverting into activities which interest and have positive effect on them rather than leaving them acting out when bored. High horsepower leads to frequent boredom. Children and people go where the rewards and attention are.

          Integrative, big picture thinkers do not get that way by limiting the paths that they explore. Genius is often classified as bipolar (“excessive” swings between extreme behaviors) as normative societal standards are imposed and freedoms constrained. Without stimulation there is only siloed limited sameness and single mindedness – not much good for developing skills to understanding complex non-linear chaotic systems in a brutal world. A certain amount of maintenance energy is necessary to sustain any organism/organization – from years of lurking it is clear that FE fills the void when others are not injecting necessary energy and stimulation; vicious guard dogs and Court Jesters have their place and as long as the population density of such characters is not extreme the historical path of this virtual space seems to indicate a long term average positive benefit/cost ratio. (But this too is dynamic – frequent excursions into transient negative B/C followed by highly positive B/C – maximizing power by transient pulses as HT Odum would say if trying to fit everything into the maximum power principal -steady state behavior not so much)

          And in an ideal world yes FE could use some self reflection and learn some finesse – sometimes there is too much and although I never was part of a formal fraternal organization, I believe it is customary to limit hazing only to those seeking to join and to cut some slack when a long term “brother’s or sister’s” behavior is seemingly aberrant due to transient responses to changed life circumstance or anxiety/insecurity from threatening outside sources beyond ones control (Ukraine seems to have wacked some of us out) – light handed honest eye opening redirection or direct support probably better for all – beat downs probably not necessary. But then life is not in the business of being ideal and such may beyond FEs capabilities.

          And I concur, thanks again Gail for allowing the children to find themselves and for the tremendous energy that must take. It will be a very sad day when we will no longer have that which you so generously enable.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The way I see – and experience it – Fast Eddy can best be compared to a Great White Intellectual Shark crossed with Spock.

            You know how they say a Great White Shark never stops swimming — Fast Eddy is like that – from the time I wake up to the time I sleep — HE is patrolling the ocean — seeking food — when HE finds something (e.g. the Igor red meat with the 2019 covid vaccine) HE reacts like a junkie who finds a sack of blow on the street — it’s full f789ing on… blood everywhere….

            HE chains me to this laptop upwards of 16 hours per day doing research — HE has me tapped into loads of Substacks… Telegram groups etc… HE is a data consuming machine — never enough.
            7 days a week – 365 per year….never a day off. Never

            As if that was not enough — whenever there is a free moment e.g. when I beg off my 15 minute break for lunch — HE flicks on that f789ing Audible… or when we are driving it’s Audible this and Audible that…. HE’s probably the biggest consumer of Audible on the planet (HE loves it cuz if the book is shit HE can exchange it)…

            Here’s the crazy thing… when it’s time to go off the air for the day … FE has me plug in the headphones and HE puts on an audiobook and activates the timer to turn it off in 15 minutes… once we drift off to sleep.. right to the very last second….

            We are talking a total 137% focus on knowing. HE’s not so much into the minutia — HE prefers to rely on others to present the data too him (gosh – imagine trying to do all that across so many disciplines!) then HE processes it … determines if it is valid…. then HE works on Big Picture shit.

            HE doesn’t care much if HE steps on toes – the means justifies the ends and the ends justifies the means — all that matters is Pure Knowledge – Pure Understanding … if there is collateral damage HE is fond of saying ‘throw it in the pot with the road kill – cook it – and feed it to the dogs’

            I am not trying to make excuses for Fast Eddy — and offer no apologies… all I can offer is the analogy that hopefully everyone can understand…


        • theblondbeast says:

          I completely agree. Also, thanks Gail!

        • Thanks for your words of wisdom, Tim.

        • DB says:

          I wholeheartedly agree with everything you wrote, Tim, especially how lucky we all are that Gail provides this forum. The real predicament we face is Our Finite OFW. We are one WEF Cyber Polygon live exercise away from losing it …

  31. CTG says:

    Lastly…. there was a proposal that says we should limit only FE but not others like Harry and Michael.

    This is seriously a very slippery slope. Everyone is equal but some are more equal than others…..

    Orwell was from another simulation. He saw what happened in past simulations. It was a warning to those who are in this simulation.

    • drb says:

      For comparison, on the saker site or Moon of Alabama, I am limited to zero posts a day. Now also on smoothiex12. I have not tested cluborlov recently but I have been threatened in the past. And by now you can see I am a mildly mannered, 2-posts-a-day poster, with little repetition. there is a difference between suppressing a point of view and limiting posts. I also wonder who is so intellectually limited that they need 100 more comments from a single poster every day to evolve their POV.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Would you limit the F1 world champion to 50km per hour to prevent him from winning all the races?

    • Kowalainen says:

      The self entitled ‘effortless ego’ snowflake princesses had their say.
      They just want their particular delusion to reflect back from everybody as a certain “etiquette”.

      Remember; they’re the ones who accepted the 💉💉+💉+💉
      And you’re the scary one daring to challenge the narrative.

      Ultimately the seven stages of grief will manifest no matter what. At least it is better to come to terms with it ASAP, than being surprised by the suck in an unfolding dystopia.

      Shall we move on?


    • ivanislav says:

      How about no one comments more than 5x a day? Does anyone really have more than a half dozen ground-breaking insights per day they *absolutely must* share with everyone?

      Alternatively, we can create a discord forum to discuss the things here in a more moderated format, so users can just block noisy/annoying users or mods can ban them. And FE can start his own discord too for people that like the barrage.

      • CTG says:


        2 scenarios

        1. We formed a gentleman’s club and yes we are open to anyone wants to join. We have our own rules and we are crude. We select only certain people to join and no women allowed. The liberals come in and say that we should not exist. In this present world where they “own” the world, we would be shutdown eventhough liberals are not welcomed

        2. We were playing with marbles for a long time and we had a lot of fun. In came a person who wants to join and we graciously accept him in. After some time, this person starts to make rules that only 5 marbles each player should have.

        See the similarities?

        • ivanislav says:

          Monopolizing a discussion is bad manners. You and Eddy should learn some manners.

          • the emperor’s prerogative i’m afraid

            none should speak unless in praise of his new clothes

          • Fast Eddy says:

            We were raised by packs of wolves… nobody applied a veneer of civilization so there ain’t nothing to strip off … we eat what we kill… and we are hungry for snowflakes and wokies… here wokie wokie… here wokie wokie… come git it…

            In honour of Nadal – A Fallen CovIDIOT


            Would it be poor form … when Fast Eddy is invited back on the ice… and a 20 year opponent mid stride collapses with a heart attack…. the match stops…. and Fast Eddy skates over to him and shouts — Ya! Ya! See what happened!!! I told you they were not safe! Ya! Ya – Look at You Now!!!

            Would that be … bad manners… in the human community?

            In the wolf pack if that happened we’d just starting ripping him apart and fighting over the choice body parts.

          • DB says:

            And dictating the terms of a discussion is also bad manners.

  32. CTG says:

    I can see that there are three groups of people on OFW.
    1. Those who are totally aware of what is happening and our time is very limited
    2. Those who knows something is wrong but insist that solutions can be found
    3. Those who are neither 1 nor 2. Just coming here and post a comment of two.

    It is interesting to note that no one is forcing anyone to come to OFW and read the articles and comments. It is totally voluntary. There are many people who came and left. There are also many who came and stayed including FE who was here for more than a decade. He was gone a few years and I did the same, but we came back because that is the sanest place on the internet.

    There are no spams like name callings or biasedness against a tribe in the Middle East, there are no swear words, nothing sexist but an occasional sexual jest is perfectly fine among adults (I would say more than seniors who have spouse and children – aren’t we not matured enough?).

    If you don’t like it, then you can just leave or just choose to ignore. Like my article on Malaysian banning the sale of tobacco to those born after 2005, this is how it starts down the slippery slope. I thought we are all against this “censorship”? I am pretty surprised that there are people here on OFW who actually said that. I have no interest in Sein Finn, Scotland, etc but perhaps others are interested. I just skipped over. I find that there are people who just believe 100% what the MSM said and I just skip over that. Perhaps there are readers who might be interested. I like to read the stories from FE on his mates in HK because that is the closest, I can get as “boots in the ground in HK”. Some may not like it. So, there should be a “give and take” attitude. If not, you are no better than the crowd that chants “Wear your masks” and then switch to “Stand with UKR”.

    So what is the big deal? I think there is a huge disconnect on the three categories of people above. We are just too pampered by FF and no worries; it will be gone soon.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Ok let’s have a hk story….

      Pre M Fast… birthday party for a lawyer mate… big party .. big big party … band .. food … filled with the whos who of hk legal community — judges barristers lawyers etc…

      Fast and his band of mad dogs (a mix of lawyers finance clowns a couple of entrepreneur types – all very respectable riff raff in his own right)… are making trips to the bathroom … at one point Fast and one of the financial guys F organize a sortee…. Fast has the gear … being careful we do not go into the same stall…

      Fast finishes with the gear and assumes ‘F’ is in the other stall.. Fast taps on the wall — you want it or not? No response …

      Fast steps up on the toilet reaches over the barrier with the gear and waves it back and forth … then peers over the barrier and says WTF F – do you want this or not — lo and behold it’s not F!!!

      It’s some fat old bald geezer taking a dump and he says – oh thanks but none for me old boy.

      Fast leaps off the seat and flees into the crowd… and is later informed that the geezer was a high court judge….

      How’s that for a story.

  33. CTG says:

    I have been thinking hard since COVID has idled me quite a lot. It is a mental exercise. There is something called “life form” and “intelligent life form”. Human is not “intelligent life form”. Nature has a built-in check and balance. Supply-demand, predator-prey. The normal equilibrium will be in place. Occasional disruptor like comets and volcanoes upset the system but over time, the life form will continue for a long time. It is in harmony.

    If the lifeform evolves slowly and somehow does not get a good “brain” or the capability to think, it will be a “lifeform”. Just like dinosaurs. Why they did not evolve to get “smart” or have the capability to think ? I don’t know but for millions or maybe billions (?) of years, it stayed that way. So, earth pretty much stable and all the lifeform exists in harmony.

    Somehow, if a lifeform gets smart, like us humans, then that is the start of the downfall. It is just a matter of time before the lifeform self-destructs when it over-consumes and pollutes its environment. Lifeforms will maximize their chances of success, especially when it comes to offspring. So, there is a built-in “greed function”. So, no matter what life forms, it will end up self-destructing.

    ** The only way I can think if is that if the lifeform has TELEPATHIC capability, able to read the minds of others. Perhaps, the greedy ones with nefarious thoughts can be weeded out.

    That is why I say this is all a simulation. If this simulation is run over and over again with different parameters, the end result will always be the same – total destruction of the environment that leads to the extinction of the lifeform. So, are there any “intelligent life” out there?

    • Dennis L. says:


      As far as is known, a star is not a lifeform, it simply is. In the end, many consume themselves when they go super nova and voila, iron to the universe and other useful elements. Perhaps so it is with humans.

      Good to have you back,

      Dennis L.

      • Mmmm. well, what makes something “alive”? The jury is still out on -say- viruses. If we’re simply dissipative structures, conduits for energy and materials in a deterministic universe, to what degree can a real difference be drawn?

        Even a rock interacts with its environment, releasing, retaining, accumulating material and energy over its (“life”?) span, according to its context. Rather than thinking of most of the universe as dead, and only the plants and animals being alive.. can’t the case be made that there is nothing ever “dead”.. all is alive?

        The helpful dictionary definition of “alive” is “not dead”. 😉

        • CTG says:

          Lifeforms as in common definition – plants and objects that are alive. Is virus a life form? Can’t tell….

          • Well, that’s exactly the point: what is “the common definition”?

            This won’t apply to you, but I’ve noticed over the past decade that native English speakers have gradually abandoned the idea of “who” in favor of “that”.

            They’ll say “people THAT want or do xyz”, instead of the traditional construction, “people WHO want or do xyz,” Hardly anyone uses “who” anymore.. only “THAT”. Once you become aware of it, you will notice the ubiquity of this shift.

            It’s as though they (“we”) have backed away from people as people and have collectively decided over the past few years that people are simply things.

            • Kowalainen says:

              A process with intent is the definition of “life”. A stone has no intent, it just is. Basically thermodynamically “dead”.

              What is then intent? Well, an ability to direct and convert energy into heat and work. I.e, to choose and to dissipate.

              Complexity is a good measure on how effective the dissipation is by approaching the thermodynamic limits as set by the likes of Carnot et. al.

              Is the sun “life”? Perhaps, and if that is so; it is incredibly efficient as it radiates its heat to the universe which is close to absolute zero kelvin. There’s no reasonable way of knowing what goes on inside it, it’s all imaginary conjecture and speculation.

    • Tim Groves says:

      H. sapiens are taking the “intelligent life-form” test now. We are in the examination room and working through the questions in this practical examination. If we proceed with the total destruction of the environment that leads to the extinction of the life-form, then we fail the test.

      I must say, from our current vantage point, things aren’t look good for the environment or for the survival of the species. We tend to look down at all those many creatures who evolve themselves into an evolutionary cul de sac that forces them to just keep doing what they’re doing for million year after million year after million year. Crabs, coelacanths, sponges, pandas, koalas, etc. I mean, are koalas failures because they have to live on eucalyptus leaves or are they successes?

      But our very flexibility, or versatility, our adaptivity, and our creativity, will in all probability damn our species to a much shorter existence than these “evolutionary dead end” species. And that’s sad, because once we’re gone, kittens and puppy dogs will have nobody to serve them with pet food, and the wild birds that some of us help keep alive in the depths of winter with generous handouts in the garden will have a much harder time surviving.

      • Xabier says:

        I once mentioned to a friend a culture – I forget which exactly – which survived more or less unchanged for many thousands of years in a temporarily stable ecological niche.

        And rather nice it sounds, as far as we can tell: good diet, pleasant huts to live in, etc. I’d opt for it.

        They rolled their eyes: ‘So, no innovation?!’

        Clearly this thought horrified them. A true devotee of the Cult of Progress.

        The same person mocked someone, a waiter in a restaurant whom I’d been chatting to, who said they aspired to a homestead back in Eastern Europe:

        ‘Really, growing your own food in the 21st century? He’s a loony!’

        And yes, they got multiple-jabbed despite my warnings…..

        • Kowalainen says:

          I’m clearly in the Cult of Progress and so are you Xabier. After all, it is the output from this cult that enables this blog in finite world issues and it’s anthropological causes and effects.

          Why not be grateful for the good stuff and critique the bad? Everything in moderation.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          A warm hut in a remote part of Patagonia … with 2000 great books…. and enough crates of red wine and whiskey to see things through….

          • Kowalainen says:

            I’m sure you wouldn’t mind a Starlink equipped terminal to facilitate gracing OFW with rants?

            Yes, FE, you’re a diehard technocrat, a Cult of Progress™ acolyte, in the concrete.

            Oh yes you little hypocrite. Can’t resist the allure of technology, now can we?


            • Fast Eddy says:

              It would be a relief to completely unplug from the matrix and all these passwords and other bullshit

            • Kowalainen says:

              *Looks around*

              Nope; there seems to be absolutely nothing stopping you from returning to a life as a hunter gatherer.

              Remember; no bows, no arrows, shoes or any forms of garments. Absolutely no wielding of fire. You see; those are all technologies. Primitive, but yet.

              I’m sure missus Fast would be eager to join.

              Or perhaps not.


      • Fast Eddy says:

        A friend who sort of understands the score on the CovCON (rejects the CEP though)… asked – how do we make money off of this knowledge of what’s going on ….

        I said if I was you (he’s single) I’d explore what a USD10,000 call girl (at that level surely they qualify to be referred to as call girls… you probably would be getting Ms Teen something… ) looks like.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Just thinking … another Black Mirror episode…. website would allow the really big players… mega yacht private jet types…. bid for services…

        Let’s say … someone has 1M (minimum entry bid) to blow and is seeking the best of the best … he drops that onto the website with details (private jet to pick you up at ____ 24 hour session at ___ (yacht – hotel suite…)

        Web site vets the applicants to ensure no skanky ho’s….(same people who vet new CIA hires…)

        It would be fascinating to see who would be applying …

        Now imagine 10M — with that sort of cash you’d never have to work another day in your life….

        A guy like Bill Gates – now that he doesn’t have Epstein – would surely be all over this …

    • Fast Eddy says:

      You just reminded me …. we’ve had another ‘incident’

      Fast and M Fast drove to Wanaka today to have a crepe at Charlie Browns… (with petrol at 12 bucks a litre that was some pricey crepes…) — we’re driving back and Fast says — you know we should call Barbara (our neighbour up where we lived near Nelson)… haven’t chatted with her in awhile… M Fast says – I was just thinking about her because she messaged me last week saying she’d sent something for my birthday. Literally thinking of her just before I said we should call her.

      Now that is obviously impossible to be a coincidence. The odds are 1 in a trillion billion trillion…

      But that is true.

      Recall the last ‘incident’ M Fast is asking when the sparky will come to fix the hot water heater… Fast says you know Ken – he’ll be hear as soon as the part arrives – he’s on it. And that very second – I mean the words were just out of Fast’s mouth and knock knock… it’s Ken at the door – ready to fix the cylinder.

      • Kowalainen says:

        You need to learn more about probability theory and fallacies.

        Just because a probability for something to occur is close to infinitesimally small doesn’t mean it won’t happen, otherwise nothing would ever happen in this universe it would be too unlikely.

        Just because some unlikely shit happens to you isn’t evidence out of the extraordinary.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          It happens almost every month now….

          It is a signal.

          Yates mentioned the second coming…. Fast Eddy’s favourite poem is… The Second Coming….

          Can’t you see? Can’t you see?

          Oh say can’t you see – by the dawn’s early light….

          • Kowalainen says:

            Nope; the only prevalent signal is the thermal noise floor and quantum fluctuations filtered through the brain which ultimately decides the next “move”.

            Im guessing your egotistic fantasy primed “filters” is getting the best out of you. No?

            Perhaps cut down on the information consumption? There’s a “pattern” to be discovered in any channel reflecting and hosing BS back up the rear end of yours.

            Remember where you read it first.

  34. CTG says:

    To everyone in OFW, it would be good if you can read what I have written. I have given plenty of ideas, thoughts and concepts which I hope helped you:

    ” Any idea of what group best survived the end of the Roman Empire? Slaves, owners, citizens? I don’t have a clue.”
    – Dennis

    Humans have the tendency to refer to the history as a guide because they can project from there as to what will happen in future. There is a certain level of comfort to “it has happened before”. Unfortunately, we are at the point of time where it is not possible because

    1. Centuries ago, life is very brutal. Survival of the best/fitting rules. If I don’t like you, I kill you. That is what nature intends all life forms to be. Only the best/fittest will come out tops. Since the unfit is not having children, the gene pool gets better.

    2. There were plenty of resources to go around during the Roman time. Forest, coal, wildlife, clean water, air, etc.

    3. Knowledge and skills (how to live in harmony with nature while extracting reasonable stuff from it) were handed down through the generations. There were clear and distinctive work segregation as what nature intended. Males are doing work that requires strength and women are doing the work that is meant for them (see the book Men are from Mars and Women are from Venus). There is synergy in living together to raise children. That is what nature/Creator intend life to be.

    4. I find it hard to believe that life was great as portrayed by Hollywood. Two consecutive bad harvests will spell the end of the homestead or community. Residents go hungry, weak bodies are more prone to disease and they will not have the energy to do the next planting. I find it hard to believe (also) that there will be a lot of surplus food (it is like surplus energy) that they can spare (to go to war, etc). If you send your able son to a war, you not only lose your son to the way (potentially dying in the war), but you also lose the opportunity cost (i.e. working in the farm). It is a double jeopardy

    Today, all the 4 points above are in bad shape for the modern homo sapiens. Add on the following :

    1. Entitled due to fossil fuel. It is a fact that the volume of human brains shrank, IQ dropped, body became weaker and the capability to think properly has gone down the drain (see what the masses did in the COVID con)

    2. Mentally weak and cannot accept that sometimes words hurt (remember in the olden days, if you are weak, you die from sickness or people just kill you off). Therefore they seek to cancel you.

    3. We are so dependent on fossil fuel and the comforts provided by FF. No one can live without it.

    4. Our world economy is based on “grow or die”. There is no exception.

    5. We have polluted our world to beyond recognition (together with spent fuel ponds)

    Basically, we are just too weak, and we seek to cancel those who are against our viewpoints. We can do it because we have the ability (and technology) to do so. It makes us feel comfortable. However, one fail to realize that it is a slippery slope. Malaysia has implemented a ban on selling cigarettes to those who are born after 2005. People applaud the move “bravo”, as the government said it is for “health”. When I talked to others about this, I asked that perhaps the government will say “You need to exercise 3 times a week” or “You are only allowed to eat good food” and it is for your “health”. So, we go down the slippery slope. The people whom I talked to “soft cancelled me” because it is just too much for them to bear. They ignore it by saying that the government will not do that (no reason or facts to support that claim) or just plain ignoring me. However, like Rand said, “You can ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequence of ignoring reality”. Nature does not care.

    So, Dennis…. No one will inherit this modern polluted planet known as “Earth”. When it is gone, it is gone. Must wait a long time before any new life form comes in.

    • We don’t really know about what life forms will flourish, if humans are pushed out. For example, green plants may flourish with higher CO2. The whole ecosystem keeps evolving, however. Life will continue in many, many forms without humans.

      Many people think that it is somehow “important” that humans leave the earth in the form that they found it. Clearly, this is impossible, with all of our planted crops and huge number of animals that we are raising for food. All of our roads are problematic, as well. All of the things humans have added will degrade or disappear over time. Nature’s timetable is not the same as our timetable.

      • sciouscience says:

        There is some precipitate remaining in the solution. Local metro Detroit news story that allergies will get worse due to increasing CO2. They did not say plants are getting bigger or plants will produce more fruits, vegetables, seeds, etc. They stated only that due to extra CO2 plants will produce more irritation to humans.

      • Weogo says:

        Hi Gail,

        “For example, green plants may flourish with higher CO2.”

        To clarify, with more CO2 and plants, some of the big winners are
        weeds, relative to crops.
        Some plants adapt to higher CO2 levels and pretty much grow as before.
        More nutrients/energy going in to stems means lower seed production.
        Another response is higher carbohydrate / lower protein ratios in crops.
        Overall, for food crops, the few beneficial effects are far outweighed by the challenges of rising CO2:
        Farmers are observing more variable temperatures/moisture,
        late/early frosts and overall, more ‘un-precedented’ weather.
        In central North Carolina night-time temperatures are sometimes
        too hot for tomatoes to flower.

        Thanks and good health, Weogo

      • MM says:

        To me the Darwinist idea of “survival of the fittest” does not get it right.
        The driver for evolution is “a beautiful solution to a problem” and evolution selects for beauty.
        Obviously a conscious being using tools can create a lot of beauty. So I understand why there has been “a need” for it.
        Problems appear when humans use other humans as tools or humans let themselves being turned into tools.

        So here we are at “the megacancer problem”…

        • Kowalainen says:

          Birds and primates are known to use tools for creating works of art and technology, ok, perhaps not technology in the case of birds.

          It is of course a fair advantage if a person is either good at crafting bows and arrows, and for others to fly them at various forms of prey and those who intrude in the ‘habitat’.

          The problem is in the archaic regions of the brain causing rapacious primate behavior, i.e, craving prestige and status within the herd unable to understand that it is the measure of competence and survival which is root of the success of all technological species.

          Thus the easily manipulated female MOARon will select for the tryhard male that subconsciously/Freudian seeks to maximize access, prestige and status.

          I just think they’ve bugged out mentally deficient people, despite how well they score on IQ tests and perform their personas.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    What are the odds? 👇

    The same guy that Featured in the Fabricated Jan 6th US White House Insurrection, somehow ends up centre stage in The Ukraine Scripted War….👇

    The World is NOTHING but a Fictitious Scripted Stage…..

    Long Live the Truth 👊

    Don’t try saying that isn’t the same guy, I’ll chop you down in 30 seconds….

  36. Tim Groves says:

    Two hours of Scott Ritter on Ukraine.

    We can learn a lot from this guy.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    “The UK government admits that vaccines have damaged the natural immune system of those who have been double-vaccinated. The UK government has admitted that once you have been double-vaccinated, you will never again be able to acquire full natural immunity to Covid variants – or possibly any other virus. So let’s watch the “real” pandemic begin now!

    In its Week 42 “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report”, the UK Department of Health admits on page 23 that “N antibody levels appear to be lower in people who become infected after two doses of vaccination”. It goes on to say that this drop in antibodies is essentially permanent. What does this mean? We know that vaccines do not prevent infection or transmission of the virus (indeed, the report elsewhere shows that vaccinated adults are now much more likely to be infected than unvaccinated ones).

    The British now find that the vaccine interferes with the body’s ability to make antibodies after infection not only against the spike protein but also against other parts of the virus. In particular, vaccinated people do not appear to form antibodies against the nucleocapsid protein, the envelope of the virus, which is a crucial part of the response in unvaccinated people. In the long term, the vaccinated are far more susceptible to any mutations in the spike protein, even if they have already been infected and cured once or more. The unvaccinated, on the other hand, will gain lasting, if not permanent, immunity to all strains of the alleged virus after being naturally infected with it even once.


    The first insurance companies are backing down because a huge wave of claims is coming their way. Anthony Fauci confirms that the PCR test cannot detect live viruses. Anthony Fauci confirms that neither the antigen test nor the PCR test can tell us whether someone is contagious or not!!! This invalidates all the foundations of the so-called pandemic. The PCR test was the only indication of a pandemic.

    Without PCR-TEST no pandemic For all the press workers, doctors, lawyers, prosecutors etc. THIS is the final key, the ultimate proof that the measures must all be lifted immediately must be PLEASE SHARE” Please copy and paste this in as many comments as you can do not try and post this on your main Facebook page as it will be taken down by Facebook let’s spread the word”

  38. Michael Le Merchant says:


  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Official Government of Canada data is truly terrifying; it suggests the Triple Vaccinated have developed AIDS & are now 5.1x more likely to die of Covid-19 than the Unvaccinated

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      I’m not terrified.

      but then again, I am not jabbed.

      why not ask the Jabbed?

      hey, Jabbed:

      are you terrified that you now have VAIDS?

      • Xabier says:

        They would just blink uncomprehendingly, as the majority are unaware that anything is seriously amiss.

        Like Jon Snow from Game of Thrones, they ‘know nuttin’……

        • Fast Eddy says:

          They are zombies. They really are… even if you kept them at the injection clinic till someone toppled over after being injected that would register nothing … you could hook up an ECG to them and monitor the reaction — there would none… they’d step over the body and pull up their sleeve… I guarantee it

          BTW – M Fast had coffee with a friend yesterday — the friend recently got her Booster….she told M Fast that for a period of about 10 minutes she had to remain at the chemist — because she was totally blind. She didn’t think it was a big deal — because her sight eventually returned. Just thought it was a bit weird. She’s injected her 12 year old son … also her husband ended up in the ER after his second shot with a racing heart….

          Definition of zombie

          a will-less and speechless human (as in voodoo belief and in fictional stories) held to have died and been supernaturally reanimated

          • Xabier says:

            Well, to be fair, FE, the Pfizer Total Blindness (TM) was transitory – as advertised – and didn’t even need a hospital visit, so her reaction is entirely measured and sensible…..

            • Fast Eddy says:

              ‘You might go blind after the shot but it’s usually transitory. If it persists report to the hospital immediately’

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Food Security Panics Governments as Ukraine War Blocks Supplies

    Some countries are moving ahead on their own. Bulgaria, a major exporter, allocated government funds to increase its national grains reserve, with aims to purchase about 1.5 million tons.

    In France, a feed producers association wants the government to stockpile the 800,000 tons of grains it needs every month, fearing the global appetite for cereals could deplete domestic supplies.

    Outside the bloc, smaller shippers Moldova and Serbia restricted sales of such crops as wheat or sugar.

    “It’s the copycat effect: ‘If you do it, then I’m going to do it, too,’” said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Programme. “That’s something that you don’t need when you have a shock to the market anyway.”

  41. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ukraine war threatens to cause a global food crisis

    A crucial portion of the world’s wheat, corn and barley is trapped in Russia and Ukraine because of the war, while an even larger portion of the world’s fertilizers is stuck in Russia and Belarus. The result is that global food and fertilizer prices are soaring. Since the invasion last month, wheat prices have increased by 21 percent, barley by 33 percent and some fertilizers by 40 percent.

    The upheaval is compounded by major challenges that were already increasing prices and squeezing supplies, including the pandemic, shipping constraints, high energy costs and recent droughts, floods and fires.

    Now economists, aid organizations and government officials are warning of the repercussions: an increase in world hunger.

    The looming disaster is laying bare the consequences of a major war in the modern era of globalization. Prices for food, fertilizer, oil, gas and even metals like aluminum, nickel and palladium are all rising fast — and experts expect worse as the effects cascade.

    “Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe,” said David M. Beasley, executive director of the World Food Program, the UN agency that feeds 125 million people a day. “There is no precedent even close to this since World War II.”

    • drb says:

      In case anyone is interested, the breadbasket of Italy, the Po river valley (about 1/3 the area of Italy) is in historic drought, It has not rained in months during what is effectively the rainy season. Winter wheat is at risk, which is roughly 50% of the land, but also soil moisture is insufficient for spring planting.

  42. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Dutch sunflower oil supply could run out in just four weeks

    Some Dutch supermarkets have already taken the decision to ration supplies and purchases of sunflower oil on their shelves in an attempt to prevent shoppers from bulk-buying. A spokesperson for Plus told NU that members of the public are currently advised to only buy one bottle at a time, but that the rule varies at each store.

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    hey mike – no harm

    717 total known cases of mRNA vaccine-related myocarditis in Ontario. Largest cohort; 12-29 yo males.

    Dr. Kieran Moore,
    , and all those that knowingly sanctioned this human tragedy will be held to account.

    • Xabier says:

      Dr Malone is rather more realistic: in a recent post he said it is evident that those responsible for the great Vaxx fraud are unlikely ever to face the consequences of their actions.

      If one reflects on the difficulties of prosecution, of either Big Pharma or public health officials, in the face of full state complicity and the corruption of the judiciary in most jurisdictions, this is likely to be true.

      No justice, no heads on the block, complete immunity from justice.

  44. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Per Sky News: “Today the Australian government announced a $13 million advertising campaign to increase COVID booster vaccination rates ahead of winter.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And they are all Letting er Rip ….. now why would they do that…..

      I am reminded of a Deer in the Headlights…. it is quite obvious what is going on here… but everyone is too stunned to think straight.

      And the zombies have moved on and are captured by Ukraine — totally oblivious to the wolves creeping through the hole in the fence.

      It’s calm then suddenly the wolves will be tearing their throats out.

      • Xabier says:

        Like hogs in a hog trap,snaffling up the grain: but the hogs are much smarter as when one is shot, the rest at least try to find a way out.


        Even deaths don’t tell them it’s trap.


    English speaking independent journalist w/ DPR soldiers protection entering Mariupol

    Unlike the reports from Western journalists in Kiev which are limited and could very easily be manipulated or staged (Zelensky on the streets was obvious green screen), this report appear authentic. Shows people evacuating under Russian protection lots of damage no direct large scale action.

    according commentor on Reminiscence of the Future…blog:

    “Patrick Lancaster was a trustworthy, courageous videographer of the Donbass war in 2014-2015.
    He and Graham Phillips were the persistent sources of factual information.”

    If looking for authentic reports of potential real action may find it on his channel

    • Fast Eddy says:

      He was the guy taking the video of the intact rocket that was smoking on the sidewalk the other day…

      I am keen on the cell phone videos – those are the best cuz it’s difficult for a single guy to get to any of the real action … unless of course an entire city has been destroyed — which is what we are told — so he should have loads of action shots… but he doesn’t

  46. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Antigenic evolution will lead to new SARS-CoV-2 variants with unpredictable severity

    The comparatively milder infections with the Omicron variant and higher levels of population immunity have raised hopes for a weakening of the pandemic. We argue that the lower severity of Omicron is a coincidence and that ongoing rapid antigenic evolution is likely to produce new variants that may escape immunity and be more severe.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      Omicron: “Its explosive spread in highly immune populations revealed that these mutations enable the variant to easily infect individuals with immunity due to previous infection or vaccination.”

      so EASILY infects the vaccinated.

      that was BA1, and BA2 is now becoming dominant worldwide.

      plenty enough time in 2022 for the next dominant variant to emerge.

      the strawman crowd will not be commenting on this science, you know, because Bill Gates ivermectin cabal blah blah blah.

  47. Tim Groves says:

    This one is is for Mirror.

    I was shocked to read what you wrote about Eddy — that you thought he had to be banned I won’t bother to quote you because you went on at such length it would take a book-sized response to deal with what I think is wrong with your arguments and your attitude. But the essence is that you want him banned for bad behavior and for being “disruptive”.

    These are two things you yourself have a history of at this site, aren’t they? You’ve had some nasty arguments and you’ve posted stuff that has upset other commenters. Wasn’t that “disruptive”? You’ve even apologized for one session of Irish republican “rebel” songs you treated us to when in your cups.

    And you’ve also accused other commenters of “stalking” you. You’ve told more than one person point blank not to reply to you or comment on your comments. Your words, which weren’t even addressed to me, impressed me as being aggressive. When you posted them, weren’t you being “disruptive”?

    You are almost a Mirror image of Eddy—although of course, nobody can totally emulate Fast Eddy. Both of you write at considerable length about things that many of the people who read these comments are totally uninterested in. Both of you upset quite a lot of other people quite a lot of the time. And both of you post a lot of interesting information and opinion, and the occasional gem.

    One great thing I admire about you is your intellectual consistency and… two things… Two great things I admire about you are your intellectual consistency and your essential decency. That and your willingness to explain things in detail. Ok, that’s three things. Perhaps, like Michael Palin, I should say, “Among the great things I admire about you are….”

    I’d like you to think again about whether it is really a good idea to censor or ban people for being “disruptive”?

    Robespierre was a great intellectual and a thoroughly decent chap who was all for the common man. As the revolution wore on and the blood or brandy or power went to his head, he was all in favor of chopping off the heads of other people who he felt were disruptive. By cutting off enough heads, you see, he thought he could improve the country. And perhaps he was right. In his place, I would have a long list myself. In the end though, Robespierre lost his own head.

    I’m sure the comparison won’t be lost on you.

    One of the great things I admire about Eddy is that he has never, to my knowledge, called for anyone else to be banned. He personifies a sentiment expressed adeptly by Noam Chomsky: ‘If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.’

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Water under the bridge… we’ve moved on.

      Haven’t you heard — it’s Raphael Nadal Day on OFW… I have the creative team urgently working on a visual … so far we have this

    • Kowalainen says:

      Free speech taken to the logical conclusion allows for speech against free speech. Which is entirely contradictory.

      Being against free speech while enjoying free speech is nonsense.

      All who are for censorship and against free speech should immediately stop their blatant hypocrisy and do as they preach.

      It is absurd to be against free speech once it is permitted.

      However, overly sensitive snowflakes should be protected from the Ugly Truth by selective filtering. Such as rated movies, etc.

      Imagine being a mollycoddled angelic princess with precious snowflake syndrome (PSS) straying into OFW by some unfathomable coincidence, while being fully vaxxed, pro Ukraine and suffering from TDS, perfectly projecting the default collective subconscious.

      This is purgatory for effortless egos.

  48. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    The Greater Tokyo Area is the world’s most populous metropolitan sprawl. Consisting of the capital and seven surrounding prefectures, the region is home to 37.8 million people and accounts for over a third of the nation’s entire population.

    Nearly 3,000 firms capitalized at ¥1 billion or more are joined by the headquarters of more than 75% of foreign companies in the nation in Tokyo, whose gross domestic product accounts for roughly 20% of Japan’s total. On the other hand, 99% of business establishments in the capital are small and midsize, often resulting in glassy high-rises and traditional mom-and-pop shops rubbing shoulders on the same block.

    “Tokyo is an abnormal megalopolis, not only for its gargantuan size but also for how it’s been sucking up Japan’s population and resources when the rest of the nation is facing demographic decline,” says Shunya Yoshimi, a cultural sociologist and professor at the University of Tokyo.

    …After peaking in 2008, Japan’s population has been shrinking while the number of older people grows. As of January, those over the age of 65 accounted for a record 28.8% of the population, or 36.21 million people. Meanwhile, a quinquennial national census survey conducted last year and released in June showed that, despite the decrease seen in the rest of the nation, Tokyo had the highest rate of population increase at 4.1%, beating the rate it logged in 2015.

    “Tokyo is a black hole, and if it continues to swallow up talent and capital, the rest of Japan could perish,” Yoshimi says. That phenomenon, he explains, can be traced to three “occupations” it has been subject to over the course of its history.

    Stuck in a rebuilding loop
    It often feels as if Tokyo is under perpetual construction. Buildings torn down and rebuilt. Roads being repaired. New shops replacing old ones.

    In a sense, Tokyo has never been able to shake the habit of continuously rebuilding itself, an identity that served it well coming out of World War II and into the bubble era.

    This repeating cycle is nowhere more evident than in Shibuya, the chaotic shopping district that’s home to an iconic scramble crossing. As part of a huge redevelopment project, multipurpose skyscrapers have been erected around the station complex, and Shibuya River has gained new prominence.


    Last night saw a program on Toyko and featured the ongoing replacement of infrastructure that is required to keep BAU on track, never mind the constant monitoring of maintenance issues that result in surprising discoveries…like stress fractures on columns for highway overpasses that need to be braced by plates.

    Doubt this city and most others will be inhabited after the resource contraction that will cause constant breakdowns.
    Reminds me of my grandfather…always fixing this or that and obviously needed replacement.
    When he passed away the home was sold and had to be stripped down to the frame and rebuilt due to building codes requirements.

  49. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha .. keep in mind a kid can load the most twisted foul po rn on the planet onto their phone with a few flicks of the finger…

    This feeds into the Fast Eddy ‘Black Mirror’ think where the kids (hotties only) are tempted into the ‘industry’ with Big Money bids from the PPV.

    I could see parents getting behind this … like they do the beauty pageant thingies… they could start grooming their kids from say 5 yrs of age…

    It only seems weird cuz it’s not ‘the norm’ yet…

    Remember how kids used to play sports without having heart attacks? Now it’s just normal to have an ECG before the game. Anything can be made to be ‘normal’…

Comments are closed.