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Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order that, over the long term, will support higher prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. Such an economy would probably be centered on Russia and China. The rest of the world economy, to the extent that it continues to exist, will largely have to get along without fossil fuels, other than the fossil fuels that countries continue to produce for themselves. Population and living standards will fall in most of the world.
If a Russia-and-China-centric economy can be developed, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Trade will be in the currency of the new Russia-China block. Outside of this block, local currencies will play a dominant role. Most of today’s debt will ultimately be defaulted upon; to the extent that this debt is replaced, it will be replaced with debt in local currencies.
As I see the situation, the underlying problem is the fact that, on a world basis, energy consumption per capita is shrinking. Energy consumption is essential for creating goods and services.
The shrinking amount of energy per person means that, on average, fewer and fewer finished goods and services can be produced for each person. Some countries do better than average; others do worse. With low fossil fuel prices, Russia has been faring worse than average; it wants to remedy the situation with long-term higher energy prices. If Russia can start transferring its energy exports to China, perhaps the new Russia-China economy, with limited support from the rest of the world, can afford to pay Russia the high prices for fossil fuels that Russia requires to maintain its economy.
In this post, I will try to explain what I see is happening.
[1] It appears that Russia now fears that it is near collapse, not too different from the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Such a collapse would lead to a huge drop in Russia’s living standards, even from today’s relatively low level.
If we look back at the Soviet Union’s energy consumption, we see a strange pattern. The Soviet Union’s energy consumption rose rapidly in the period after World War II. It became a military rival of the US, as its energy consumption grew in the 1965 to 1985 period. Its energy consumption leveled off before the central government collapsed in 1991. In fact, energy consumption has never gotten back to its level in the late 1980s.
[2] The thing that seems to have been behind the 1991 collapse is the same thing that seems to be behind Russia’s current fear of collapse: continued low oil prices.
When we look back at inflation-adjusted oil prices, we see that a long period of low prices preceded this collapse. These low prices were harmful in many ways. They reduced funds for reinvestment, which led to the collapse in oil supply. They reduced the funds available to pay wages. They also reduced the tax revenue that the Soviet Union could collect.
I believe that these chronically low oil prices ultimately brought down the top layer of the government of the Soviet Union. This is because of the physics of the situation. It takes energy to provide the services of the top level of the government. As the total energy that could be purchased by the system fell because of low prices received for exports, it became impossible to support this top level of governmental services. This top layer was less essential than the lower levels of government, so it fell away.
In recent times, there has also been a long period of low prices, since about 2013:
Unless this pattern of low prices can be reversed quickly, Russia as a political entity could collapse. Exports of all of the goods it now produces would likely fall.
[3] While oil prices depend on “supply and demand,” as a practical matter, demand is very dependent on interest rates and debt levels. The higher the debt level and the lower the interest rate, the higher the price of oil can rise.
If we look back at Figure 4, we can see that before the US subprime housing bubble popped in 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices were able to rise to $157 per barrel, adjusted to the 2020 price level. Once the debt bubble popped, inflation-adjusted oil prices fell to $49 per barrel. It was at this low point (and correspondingly low prices for many other commodities) that the US started its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates.
After two years of QE, oil prices were back above $140 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices, but these soon started sliding down. By the time oil prices dropped to $120 per barrel, oil companies started to complain that prices were falling too low to meet all of their needs, including the need to drill in ever less productive areas. Now we are at a point where interest rates are about as low as they can go. Short-term interest rates are near zero, which is where they were in the late 1930s.
The quantity of funds in people’s checking and savings accounts is at an extraordinarily high level, as well. This is partly because of the availability of debt at these low interest rates.
Thus, even before the Ukrainian invasion, oil prices were raised about as high as they could go, through low interest rates and generous debt availability. With all this stimulus, Brent Spot Oil prices averaged $86.51 in January 2022. Even now, with all the disruption of the attack by Russia against Ukraine, oil prices are below the $120 threshold that producers seem to need. This price issue, plus the corresponding low-price issues for natural gas and coal, is the problem that Russia is concerned about.
Prices for imported coal and natural gas have bounced very high in the last few months, but no one expects these high prices to last. For one thing, they are too high for the European manufacturers that use imported coal or natural gas to stay in business. For example, producers that create urea fertilizer using natural gas find that the price of fertilizer produced in this way is way too high for farmers to afford. For another, the electricity produced by burning the high-priced natural gas or coal tends to be too expensive for European households to afford.
[4] The fundamental problem behind recent low oil prices is the fact that the current mix of consumers cannot afford goods and services produced using the high oil prices that producers, such as Russia, need to operate, pay high enough wages, and do adequate reinvestment.
When the price of oil was very low, back before 1970 (see Figure 3), it was relatively easy for consumers to afford goods and services made with oil. This was the period when the world economy was growing rapidly, and many people could afford to purchase automobiles and buy the oil products needed to operate them.
Once the cost of oil extraction started rising because of depletion, it became more and more difficult to keep prices both:
- High enough for oil producers, such as Russia, and
- Low enough to make affordable goods for consumers, as was possible prior to 1970
To try to hide the increasingly difficult problem of keeping prices both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers, central banks have lowered interest rates and encouraged the use of more debt. The idea is that if a person can buy a fuel-efficient car at a low enough interest rate and over a long enough term, perhaps this will make the vehicle more affordable. Similarly, interest rates on home mortgages have fallen to very low levels. All of this, plus the fact that debt is used to finance new factories and mines, leads to the relationship we saw in Figure 4 between oil prices and debt availability, related to interest rates.
[5] No one knows precisely how much oil, coal and natural gas can be extracted because the quantity that can be extracted depends on the extent of the price rise that can be tolerated without plunging the economy into recession.
If prices of these fossil fuels can rise very high (say, $300 per barrel for oil, and correspondingly high prices for other fossil fuels), a huge amount of fossil fuel can be extracted. Conversely, if energy prices cannot stay above the equivalent of $80 per barrel oil for very long without a serious recession, then we may already be very close to the end of available fossil fuel extraction. Both oil and gas producers and coal producers can be expected to go out of business because prices do not leave a sufficient margin for the required investment in new fields to offset the depletion of existing fields. Renewables will falter, as well, because both building and maintaining renewables requires fossil fuels.
The amount of resources of any kind (fossil fuels and minerals such as lithium, uranium, copper and zinc) that can be extracted depends upon the extent of depletion that the economy can tolerate. Depletion of any kind of resource means that a bigger effort (more workers, more machinery, more energy products) is required to extract a given quantity of each resource. It is clear that the entire economy cannot be transferred to the extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources. For example, some workers and resources are needed for growing and transporting food. This puts a limit on how much depletion can be tolerated.
What Russia (as well as every other oil producer) would like is a way to get the tolerable oil price up significantly higher, for example, to $150 per barrel, so that more oil can be extracted. The hope is that a Russia-and-China-centric economy might be able to do this. Ideally, the tolerable maximum price for coal and natural gas would rise, as well.
[6] Europe, in particular, cannot afford high oil prices. If interest rates are increased soon, this will make the problem even worse. China seems to have definite advantages as an economic partner.
Europe is already having difficulty tolerating very high prices of imported natural gas and coal. Rising oil prices will add even more stress. Central banks are planning to raise interest rates. These higher interest rates will make loan payments more expensive. These higher interest rates will tend to push Europe’s economy further toward recession.
Given the problems with Europe as an energy importer, China would seem to have the possibility of being a better customer that can perhaps tolerate higher prices. For one thing, China is more efficient in its use of energy products than Europe. For example, many homes in the southern half of China are not heated in winter. People instead dress warmly inside their homes in winter. Also, homes and businesses in northern China are sometimes heated with waste heat from nearby coal-fired electricity plants. This is a very efficient approach to heating.
China also uses more coal in its energy mix than Europe. Historically, coal has been much less expensive than oil. What is needed is a low average price of energy. A small amount of high-priced oil can be tolerated in an economy that uses mostly coal in its energy mix. When all costs are counted, wind and solar are very high-priced energy sources, which contributes to Europe’s problems.
In recent years, China’s consumption of energy products has been growing very rapidly. Perhaps, in the view of Russia, China can use high-priced fossil fuel better than other parts of the world.
[7] Russia realized that the rest of the world is utterly dependent upon its fossil fuel exports. Because of this dependency, as well as the physics-based connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the making of finished goods and services, Russia holds huge power over the world economy.
The world economy should have known about the importance of fossil fuels and the likelihood that the world economy would face depletion issues in the first half of the 21st century, ever since a speech by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957. In this speech, Rickover said,
We live in what historians may someday call the Fossil Fuel Age. . .With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. . . A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.
Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.
. . . it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at sometime between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.
I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America’s youngsters the best possible education [including the energy problem of a world with finite resources].
Many people today would conclude that world leaders have done their best to ignore this advice. The likely problem with fossil fuels has been hidden behind an imaginative, but false, narrative that our biggest problem is climate change caused primarily by fossil fuel extraction that can be expected to extend until at least 2100, unless positive steps are made to hold back this extraction.
In this false narrative, all the world needs to do is to move to wind and solar for its energy needs. As I discussed in my most recent post, titled Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer, this narrative of success is completely false. Instead, we seem to be hitting energy limits in the near term because of chronically low prices. Wind and solar are doing very little to help because they cannot be depended upon when needed. Furthermore, the quantity of wind and solar available is far too low to replace fossil fuels.
Few people in America and Europe realize that the world economy is entirely dependent upon Russia’s exports of oil, coal and natural gas. This dependency can be seen in many ways. For example, in 2020, 41% of world natural gas exports came from Russia. Natural gas is especially important for balancing electricity from wind and solar.
North America has historically played only a very small role in natural gas exports; it is questionable whether North America can ramp up its total natural gas production in the future, given the depletion problems being experienced with respect to the extraction of oil and the associated natural gas from shale formations. Continuously high oil prices are necessary to justify ramping up production outside of sweet spots. If drillers consider long-term prospects for oil prices to be too low, the associated natural gas will not be collected.
Europe is especially dependent upon natural gas imports (Figure 9). Its imports of natural gas exceed the exports of Russia and its affiliated countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, referred to as Russia+ in Figures 8 and 9.
Without the natural gas exports of Russia and its close affiliates, there is no possibility of supplying adequate natural gas exports to the rest of the world.
Diesel fuel, created by refining oil, is another energy product that is in critically short supply, especially in Europe. Diesel fuel is used to power trucks and farm tractors, as well as many European automobiles. An Argus Media report indicates that Russian supplies account for 50% to 60% of Europe’s seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil, amounting to 4 to 6 million tons of fuel per month. It likely would be impossible to replace these imports, using supplies from elsewhere, without bidding the price of these imported fuels up to a much higher price level than today. Even then, countries outside Europe would be left with inadequate diesel supplies.
[8] Russia’s attack on Ukraine seems to have been made for many reasons.
Russia was clearly frustrated with the current situation, with NATO becoming increasingly assertive within Ukraine itself, even though Ukraine is not itself a NATO member. Russia is also aware that in some sense, it has far more power over the world economy than most people realize because the world economy is utterly dependent on Russia’s fossil fuel exports (Section 7). Sanctions against Russia will likely hurt the countries making the sanctions as much or more than they hurt Russia.
There were also several concerns that were specifically Ukrainian giving rise to the attack on Ukraine. There had been long standing conflicts about natural gas pipelines. Was Ukraine taking too much natural gas out as a transit fee? Was it paying the correct fee for the natural gas it used? Ukraine also seems to have mistreated quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians over the years.
Russia has become increasingly frustrated with the small share of the world’s output of goods and services that it receives. The way the economic system works today, those who provide “services” seem to receive a disproportionate share of the world’s output of goods and services. Russia, with its extraction of minerals of many kinds, including fossil fuels, has not been well compensated for the great wealth that it brings to the world as a whole.
Over the years, Russia’s great strength has been its military. Perhaps Ukraine would not be too large a country to do battle over. Russia might be able to eliminate some of its irritations with Ukraine. At the same time, it might be able to make changes that would help to raise what have become chronically low fossil fuel prices. The sanctions that other countries would make would tend to push the required changes along more quickly.
If the sanctions really did push Russia down, the result would tend to push the whole world economy toward collapse, because the rest of the world is extremely dependent upon Russia’s fossil fuel exports. In Figure 1, the laws of physics say that there is a proportional response to the quantity of energy “dissipated”; if a greater output of goods and services is desired, more energy input is required. Efficiency changes can somewhat help, but efficiency savings tend to be offset by the higher energetic needs of the more complex system required to achieve these savings.
If energy prices do not rise high enough, we will somehow need to get along with very little or no fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewables will last very long either because they depend upon fossil fuels for their maintenance and repair.
[9] If higher energy prices cannot be achieved, there is a significant chance that the change in the world order will be in the direction of pushing the world economy toward collapse.
We are living in a world today with shrinking energy resources per capita. We should be aware that we are reaching the limits of fossil fuels and other minerals that we can extract, unless we can somehow figure out a way to get the economy to tolerate higher prices.
The danger that we are approaching is that the top levels of governments, everywhere in the world, will either collapse or be overthrown by their unhappy citizens. The reduced amounts of energy available will push governments in this way. At the same time, programs such as government-funded pension plans and unemployment plans will disappear. Electricity is likely to become intermittent and then fail completely. International trade will shrink back; economies will become much more local.
We were warned that we would be reaching a time period with serious energy problems about now. The first time came in the 1957 Rickover speech discussed in Section 7. The second warning came from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, which documented a computer modeling approach to the problem of limits of a finite world. The Ukraine invasion may be a push in the direction of more serious energy problems, emerging primarily from the fact that other countries will want to punish Russia. Few people will realize that punishing Russia is a dangerous path; a serious concern is that today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.
Draghi and his government took the opportunity of this confusion to extend green passport for other three years.
Who live under a dictatorship, us or them?
https://comedonchisciotte.org/la-guerra-di-draghi-allitalia-green-pass-per-altri-tre-anni/
The article posted on this blog a few weeks ago had it right, when it renamed Italy as Draghistan….
There was an article posted on CDC a few days ago…the title translated as…. “Dream Inside Dream”
Well worth a read….it really put into words my own feelings about the last 2+ years…
Cancer!!! https://twitter.com/JikkyKjj/status/1500282669724495873
Emergence of Progressive Mutations in SARS-CoV-2 From a Hematologic Patient With Prolonged Viral Replication
We documented a hematologic patient with prolonged SARS-CoV-2 viral replication in whom emergence of viral mutations was documented after the consecutive use of antivirals and convalescent plasma. The virus detected in the last of 12 clinical samples (day 237) had accumulated 22 changes in amino acids and 29 in nucleotides.
Some of these changes, such as the E484Q, were mutations of concern as defined by WHO. This finding represents an enormous epidemiological threat and poses a major clinical challenge. Combined antiviral strategies, as well as specific strategies related to the diagnostic approach of prolonged infections for this specific population, may be needed.
https://worldedge.substack.com/p/sars-cov-2-impaired-dna-repair-viral
Putin used them for his propaganda because they do not show negative emotions and look good
Putin Greets Female Aircrew Members Of Russian Airlines
Rather looks as though he has more fun being a wicked dictator than Western politicians, who would have to line up with trannies and other freaks……
Yes, you are right.
But Ukrainians and Russians do not have fun.
Maybe some of the women on the picture are lesbians etc… We do not know. Russia faces the same population issues as the West.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/03/russian-lesbians-selfie-kiss-plane-protest-vitaly-milonov
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/2/3/1422963457276/248f0dec-a146-4390-bd2a-1ac927e0a494-bestSizeAvailable.png?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=8bacf739387b5e7573ffe4293ccf2fb5
i really don’t get this integration of trannies into society – what purpose does this serve — they will never be accepted cuz they are freaks…. there is either male – or female. Nothing else. Trying to ram that square peg into the round hole is not going to work.
We are trying to defy the laws of nature — we can try to pretend but ultimately everyone knows… this is some kinda freak show…..
I don’t know what the solution is … Just thinking out loud…. perhaps create a circus for them to perform in? It could include other misfits like the para-olympian volleyball team etc….
lift up the hem of your raiment eddy
so that we unwashed masses can check for ourselves which category you fall into
Putin got entangled in the political marketing, loosing the connection with the reality. The reality of the ageing population and energy poverty.
South Korea has deadliest day of COVID-19 pandemic amid Omicron surge
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/south-korea-has-deadliest-day-of-covid-19-pandemic-amid-omicron-surge-1.5797959
https://dailysceptic.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/image-13.png
Covid Deaths Continue to Decline in the Unvaccinated But Not in the Vaccinated, UKHSA Data Show
https://dailysceptic.org/2022/03/06/covid-deaths-continue-to-decline-in-the-unvaccinated-but-not-in-the-vaccinated-ukhsa-data-show/
Oh norm… what have you done?
Why is this in the MSM?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chd-says-pfizer-fda-dropped-205400826.html?guccounter=1
End times are here….
Hong Kong’s Distress Signals Are Rising
With some kind of lockdown and grim isolation centers looming, the city shows signs of trauma. Two years into the pandemic and counting, the biggest toll may be psychological.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-05/hong-kong-s-distress-signals-are-rising-as-covid-measures-ramp-up-again?sref=4y73sNmN
Devil Covid?????
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-catastrophic-covid-19-infections-and-hospitalizations-in-hong-kong-driven-by-new-ba-2-subvariant-with-an-extra-i1221t-spike-mutation
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3ca0a89-09ac-40b0-b0cd-1f01163e1f4a_1373x906.jpeg
Eureka! Prep the bombs… prep the busted supply chain… prep the empty supermarkets..
CEP it is… CEP I told ya so…..
Hong Kong is barely 70% vaccinated. If they got vaccinated >80%, wore masks, and stayed home when sick this wouldn’t be happening. China has been too soft on HK and should be a little more heavy handed with the restrictions. It’s the only way.
Huh? That’s not what I am seeing… natural immunity is much better.. are you being sarcastic?
Are they denied Ivermectin?
Not possible to buy Ivermectin in HK…. Remdesivir is now doubt OTC
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/bad-news-from-hong-kong
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3ca0a89-09ac-40b0-b0cd-1f01163e1f4a_1373x906.jpeg
Who votes for total nuclear war after reading this?
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/advocacy-journalism-is-propaganda
The polls show that almost 7 out of 10 Russians agree with the attack on the Ukraine. They have no mercy with Ukraine.
https://domov.sme.sk/c/22854751/ranny-brifing-bezny-rus-vojnu-putinovi-schvaluje-s-ukrajinou-nema-sucit.html?ref=trz
Why not, if they suffer from energy poverty.
This is really bad.
These “approval ratings” for Russian support keep getting circulated and yet the most basic element is never mentioned.
How in the world are 3 of 10 still brave enough to say they disagree? When the iron curtain 2.0 is falling and one gets 15 years for criticizing the war publicly. No one has any idea how ordinary Russians feel at all. If they’re like the few I’ve spoken to personally, they’re terrified to death.
There will always be bots that will automatically appear when certain keywords, topics are put forward. So “unhuman”. No jokes and cold. Totally “unhuman”
Wow yeh, but here we all just line up get jabbed and confused instead?
This is another proof that it is not only an isolated man, but we have to understand that we have made angry a full Country with our projects for Nato and EU.
Vladimir Putin is successful because he fullfils the wishes of the public, which is shivering from cold because Russians live in very hostile cold areas.
Energy poverty.
I 100% support the annihilation of Ukraine… Burn Them to the Ground
My first hand experience says the opposite is true, re: they have no mercy.
Over the last two years, I have come to realize that “journalism” and “journalists” seem to have changed in some fundamental way. I used to believe that there were standards and bedrock ethics which all journalists working for major publications ascribed to. I guess I had thought that the stereotype of the intrepid journalist toiling away in a brave and unending quest for truth was the norm (think “All the President’s Men”). But no longer. Now I feel so naive for ever believing that. What I have personally experienced, again and again, is something very different.
Allow me three general examples to illustrate the point-
First example. Many years ago, when I was working for the “Aeras Global Tuberculosis Vaccine Foundation” (one of the early Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation non-profit vaccine companies), the CEO hired a media consulting firm which mainly consisted of a Pulitzer-prize winning journalist and a marketing manager. To insure that favorable stories about the organization and its mission were printed, the “journalist” and the marketing specialist would consult with their clients (in this case “Aeras”), and learn what story the organization wanted to be told in a major print publication.
An article pushing the story would then be crafted, all of the necessary background assembled to meet whatever editorial review standards were likely to be encountered, and this pre-baked work product would be fed to some “journalist” working for the targeted publication. Free work product, no labor required, what’s not to like? My first “you are not in Kansas any more” moment concerning modern journalism was when I saw this process used to “place” an article into “The Economist”, which I had naively believed operated as an independent arbiter of truth. Silly me.
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/advocacy-journalism-is-propaganda
Well now you can apply the same disillusionment to expectations of Health care professionals too….Thousands Bucks for some Hydrochloroquine, come on, what ya say Doc?
How much Vitamin D3 can you buy and distribute if ya sold the bat mobile or is that you just referring to a viral infected skin bag walking round town
The Science™ vs science – evidence from the Northern Mariana Islands
Data from the Northern Mariana Islands demonstrates once again that the COVID vaccine causes COVID deaths as well as fatal adverse events.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-science-vs-science-evidence-from
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5dbec35d-b7c8-44fa-aba5-84edcbd659b4_2602x1952.png
Hey norm… any comment?
Notice how norm never responds unless I ridicule him… therefore the obvious strategy would be to ridicule him ….
“In red the most recent Russian movements Day 9. The only major progress is inside the purpose square when Russian forces have penetrated deep in the rear of both Odessa and Kiev. So I have to wonder – are the planning a strategic cauldron??? Dunno, but I decided to add a black bar to show where we might want to look closer in the coming days.
Mariupol is, as already mentioned, totally closed off and heavy fighting is taking place. This city will be forcibly denazified in the next couple of days.
The (much awaited) operational cauldron in the east is still not physically closed by Russian forces. But, as I already mentioned, the no man’s land between the two Russian prongs is completely “shot through” (to use a Russian expression) which means that while small groups can still make it out, it’s over for the heavy Ukie armor, artillery and Nazi death-squads who are STILL shelling Donetsk which, of course, nobody reports about in the Empire of Lies.”
file:///var/mobile/Library/SMS/Attachments/25/05/2183148C-05D3-4459-B767-5E7027DC02BB/IMG_6895.jpeg
https://thesaker.is/day-6-a-couple-of-quick-points/
A referendum on Scottish independence is likely to be delayed until at least 2024, because of the crisis in Ukraine. Oh well, studies indicate that the younger tend to support independence more, and that the oldest demographic heavily favours the UK, so, with polls split 50/50, it would probably be as well to leave it for a few more years, anyway. LOL
> Hopes of quick Scottish independence referendum fading fast
Focus on Ukraine, says Ian Blackford
Pro-independence supporters at a rally in Glasgow in 2019. A new vote is now unlikely to take place until at least 2024
Nationalist hopes for a quick second independence referendum are fading as the SNP leader at Westminster signalled the postponement of a poll in 2023. Ian Blackford said the short-term focus of all politicians should be on the crisis in Ukraine following the invasion by Russia.
He cautioned those wanting immediate progress on a second constitutional vote to be “mindful of where we are” given events elsewhere in the world.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hopes-of-quick-scottish-independence-referendum-fading-fast-gj3pmmtdc
Does anyone care? By 2023, it’ll have gone the way of Quebec nationalism, which at least was a movement with some logic. Has Nicola’s psychic sister not given her thoughts on this?
“Does anyone care?”
You seem to… you and your crystal ball… and your psychic surveys…
The referendum is coming… don’t cry about it…
the referendum that you’ll lose again? Then what? Another?
I only care because I recognize identical divisive political zealotry and extremism that blighted our lives in Northern Ireland. Take it from someone with my accent, it doesn’t take long for a divided society to turn ugly – back in the sixties , there were several years where Northern Ireland had no murders, other years, a few. Then over 500 in 1972.
Get real – any state that requires repeated referenda to achieve a majority of 50 + 1 to supposedly justify its establishment has permanent misery baked in the cake, particularly when we hear the uncouth ranting about toons and hoping the older generation die off soon so they can have their nationalist nirvana. I see we’re reduced to burning union jacks now. This will convince plenty to vote nationalist how exactly? How not to establish a stable society, Nats.
Oh – hadn’t you heard Nicola’s sister runs an online fortune telling racket? Here’s a prediction – there won’t be another referendum. Why would there when you’ll lose
End of the world investment advice from BCA:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNNSo3-XwAQawNe?format=jpg&name=medium
I like the idea of point 3 coming true
Brent/WTI = 128/124 holy s.h.i.t
I think it was maybe Michael who posted that in Euros the price of Brent is a new record high.
is it a record high in your currency?
Not sure about the prices here in Ringgit
https://youtu.be/ZEcqHA7dbwM
Brent/WTI = 129/125….
haha…. I am getting “high”
Just waiting for
1.
just waiting for someone to drop the bomb or bombshell statement like cutting off the gas to EU, etc
Maybe we wake up and Bang … photos of people dead on the streets… and Devil Covid starts to rip ….. look at how fast Omicron is spreading … so let’s say DC is more contagious than this + kills everyone who catches it within a week…
Imagine the level of fear … people will lock their doors and go out for nothing (not even to slaughter the neighbour’s kid and cook it)…
Then the gas stops flowing …. and the shops go empty…
Triple Whammy … wham bam thank you mam x 3… gotta keep the internet on and the Tee Vee … till the very end… cuz gotta make sure the 8B can see the carnage… gotta keep em scared… so they stay inside… no Ripping… nope – no Ripping … too scared to rip — disease and bombs and empty shops… no point in going out…
Stay inside… throw on another blanket and hunker down… watching – The Carnage… The horror… The HORROR… bolt the doors… ding dong Avon Calling — F789 OFFF!!! ding dong Jehovah’s Witness here to save you — I toldja — F789 Off!!!
It ain’t as good as everyone taking Oxy… and drifting off… but that’s not possible .. even if you tell the 8B Ripping is the other option – they’ll stand and fight… a mate who cast doubt on the CEP said he’d rather go down fighting … barrel melting … and I said ya – that’s exactly why they are launching the CEP (he’d be raping and murdering like no tomorrow – cuz that’s the human way)…
Anyone starting to reconsider their position on the CEP…. anyone???? it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas… everywhere I look…
The pieces are in place now … Beware the Ides of March… if this Goes Down during the ides…
Will you still doubt that Fast Eddy was sent by a Higher Power … Fock me… I just made that stuff up … but if it does happen … I’m gonna have to admit… HE deserves the royal HE … and HE is some kinda f789ing Messiah….
And if that is correct…. what does HE have in store for us????
Fast Eddy is a righteous entity… HE is a fair… HE is kind… HE has compassion… yet HE is firm…
Is HE not everything you would want in a GOD? What are the odds… that I’d play host to Fast Eddy… I am humbled by this …
I am feeling a bit like Mother Mary … except I ain’t no tranny and I did not birth Fast Eddy… HE just showed up one day… and HE stuck around… this is bigger than winning the lottery… it’s by far the biggest moment in all history …
Aren’t we fortunate to have Fast Eddy here on OFW? ya he does post a bit on Substack but OFW is HIS preferred platform…
norm? mike? Thoughts on this?
And next Sunday we have to set the clocks ahead an hour.
The morning school bus will be picking the kids up in the dark.
All those mothers will have to drag those kids out of bed and get them ready and out by the road..in the dark.
But we’re saving some daylight for afternoon golf.
We should not be surprised. Look at Gail’s Figure 3.
Crude oil prices trebled in 1973, stayed at that level, then doubled again in 1979.
There is no spare capacity in global oil production. History suggests prices are going to $200+. Unless the economy tanks sufficiently before that, which seems likely on current trends.
when oil prices quadrupled in the 70s, the producers were faced with the reality: raise output to match, or lose their gold plated lifestyle.
First law of all fuel: it has no value until it is used/burned.
they duly quadrupled output, (lots of surplus available)….so status quo was maintained.
So ultimately we all carried on burning oil as if nothing had happened.
Fifty years on, and things are different.
But that certainty seems to be repeating, that oil prices can go on rising, and we will accommodate it. Shareholders in oil companies are dancing with glee.
But.
Second law of fuel: Using fuel requires energy input.
You cut down a tree, and hopefully extract more energy from the tree than you expended in the act of cutting it down. A hundred years of growth expended in a few days of heat production,
Essentially that was the support mechanism of all human endeavour until 300 years ago.
Which is why human population grew very little until the mid 1700s. Trees were our densest source of energy, apart from the flesh of animals.
Same applies to our oil based economic system.
fifty years ago we just burned more oil to keep ourselves in employment. (ie ever-increasing GDP). Our problem now is that we do not have enough ‘surplus’ to repeat the process.
But of course most of the dimbos in government, economics and production cannot grasp this fundamental difference in our situation.
we no longer have the ‘surplus’ energy in the system to keep our economy rolling forward. We are in effect running out of the momentum that we were told was forever.
Our wheels are coming off.
We come back to the brutal truth that perpetual motion machines do not work.
Will you take more shots norm? https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
eddy
if you ever find out where your time delay switch is, (the one between your brain and your typing finger),
you might pause to reflect that only the weak cannot accept dissent, and fly into mindless repetitive rages as a result
yes but will you be taking additional injections? yes __ no __
up at my medical centre im known as the human pin cushion
the nurses use me for practice
WOW! Wheat going vertical.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNNNGonXMAA1xtn?format=jpg&name=large
the psyycho miseducated wokester Libtards in the USA and EU didn’t have a clue about the externalities of their “sanctions”.
EU will have to deal with Ukrainian migration, and also migration from Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Lebanon,….
Let er Rip! (TM)
All we need now is DC (and we all know what that is hahaha)
When will HK offer free tourist packages to its residents. Fly to LA, NYC, London, Rome, Moscow, Delhi, Rio for the low low rate of $199 round trip.
Hey mike … https://www.tiktok.com/@jakevsthestate/video/7071401414202903809
Wow
Who else is feeling the adrenaline rush of mayhem and chaos?
I was thinking of having a short nap…. might have to find a paper bag to calm myself.
The mushroom cloud that you have ordered is current not available. Please try again later. Humans are very sensible animals. They will self-preserve. Not to worry… They will take care of their young and will do their best to look forward to a bright future……
perhaps so bright that you need to have SPF of 1,000,000 and some lead sunglasses.
haha….
I dont think Poland is dumb enough to give jets to Ukraine. Do they really want to trade their 29s for f-16s? Especially now? Give up air defenses NOW? As mirror mentioned who is going to fly them in? If the map she posted is correct this thing is omost over. All the Ukraine airfields are not operational. The aircraft would have to operate out of Poland. Poland is not that stupid. Could article 5 really be valid if Poland flew sorties against Russia in Ukraine and Russia responded? I dont think Blinken will get his way. Poland wont blow up the world.
The freedom convoy may not be able to pay for fuel to get home. Brave men.
So Poland gives ukraine MIGS. Putin says thats war… with NATO. Russia hits Poland. Then what NATO tries to take Moscow? If they stop at russian borders theres the smallest chance it wont go nuclear.What does “war” mean post wwwII? what one army occupies the other country? For real? When does somone launch every nuke they have to get the first punch in? Im totally guessing of course. I dont think whoever launches first will play the typical gamed baby nuke first i say its a full launch the works, preemptive strike. 50 nukes are a 25% reduction in food production from nuclear winter. Combined arsenals are what 6000 warheads? Bioweapon release? I mean if your gonner why not? I wonder if NATO has bioweapons targeted for slav genetics and Russia has bioweapons targeted for non slav genetics? Icing on the cake.
And China is trying to be as small and unobvious as possible right now. Not really any nuclear capability compared to Russia or USA. Nobody ever called China stupid.
See Eddy you chose right with NZ!
Davidinabillionyears – it looks like you have suffered the classic “did not see the exponential function”
We had a few “discussion” long time ago when you mentioned that there are still decades to go. You are absolutely right if whatever situation at that point of time “goes on forever”.
Right now, I doubt you can even think of a few years ahead. At this rate we are going, we are lucky to get past 2022.
We are exponentially worse off than 2016 or even 2020.
Like the calculation of “We have 50 years of oil reserves” taking only the usage at that present point of time.
Just the fact that China initiates (real or false flag) an attack on Taiwan, Russia closes all the gas valves to EU or demands payment in gold, then the end is just a few weeks later when the financial world implode.
I am not faulting you but that is a classic example
okay, I’ll take a few more exciting weeks.
this is far more entertaining than those toxic vaccines.
Russian Reset tonight, baby!
Ya vax injury stories are nowhere near as fun as bombs… especially nuclear…
Is it not fascinating how all nuclear bombs – when they explode… look the same?
That mushroom cloud against a setting sun is magic! If I were them I’d add some chemicals to the bombs to create different coloured mushrooms… can you imagine more delightful that a bright red mushroom cloud?
Rainbow nukes?
Look mom – it’s a rainbow!
Just before they are roasted alive
hahahahaha
Yes, but the flames will be shining in the proper virtue colors.
If they let nukes off in orbit above the atmosphere, that’s when the real fun begins. Instantly disrupts everything electrical or electronic. Starfish party anyone?
The end of summer approaches… not keen on a winter without activities … end of March would be really good time for the extinction to start…
and thanks for that, CTG, always good to be reminded of exponentials.
I wrote this as my first comment on this article March 2nd:
“others have said, that LTG could not, did not take into account pandemics/wars, as well as all of the financial/economic issues of near zero rates, huge debt, demand/affordability of energy products etc.
while I remain a “slow” collapser, all of the discussed issues make a strong case that the global economy could have an accelerated decline, more so than the standard LTG model.
sooner rather than later, and much “worser”.”
It is getting worserer and worserer by the day….. There is no turning back.. there is no way anything can revert back to 2019.
Face it. The bottle of wine that you have saved for the best moments in life? Pop open now.
I wish I had a small sack full of High Grade 95% Pure Bolivian right now ….. I don’t want to sleep any more cuz I might miss the Launch.
For many years Gail has made the point that prices too low for producers and prices too high for consumers are the nexus of the problem of oil energy. It appears that the former is more dominant in how this will pay out. Absent oil availability it is game/set/match for everyone. Oil too high for some consumers will remove them from the picture. Most US urban consumers need cheap oil to commute from the suburbs. and get goods from their suburban big boxes. Ditto Canada. Their cheap American dream is circling the drain even if they are just starting to figure that out. High and persistent oil prices will likely sink a lot of sectors early: Amazon free shipping, flying to Cancun/Cabo vacations, Suv/big truck sales. The list goes on.The american debt fueled dream is on life support. Energy use per capita is declining except for China. Debt, energy, climate, the economy……..all linked and now all fragmenting.High oil prices will in time produce some more supply in time but at a high price that fewer and fewer will be able to afford. Thank you Gail for a fine summary.
Thanks for your vote of confidence.
I think I wrote about the pricing issue back in my article about the 2008 crisis called Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. The link is to a free version of an article published in January 2012 in the journal Energy.
Science Direct says that there are 80 citing articles.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0360544211003744
The “pricing issue” is one of your signature ideas….many energy writers recognise, to some extent, the ending of cheap oil….but they don’t seem to get that oil is like no other commodity….the price may spike higher for a while…but it can’t stay there….
As far as I can tell, the only other individual who has drawn attention to this issue is Dr Louis Arnoux, in an interview with Steve St Angelo in October 2020. He presented a chart titled: “Oil Prices are Thermodynamically Driven”….and talked about it.
I think people struggle with the declining net energy per barrel idea….in the grand scheme of things each barrel of oil is increasingly worthless…it may never be widely understood.
Kudos to Steve St Angelo….his commentary is always worth paying attention to.
It is obvious that the final barrel of oil will be left in the ground with a value of exactly zero. Which incidentally is exactly the same price at the first barrel of oil before mankind discovered its utility.
In between these extremes is a pricing of an inevitable reckoning of the fantasy.
No further inquiry required.
J-M Jancovici (French) talk also about fluctuating oil prices 15 years ago.
I have a lot of admiration for Jean Marc’s work…I was aware of him before I came across Gail’s work….there are a lot of similarities….but I don’t remember him emphasising the “pricing issue” quite as much as Gail does…but then, I have only watched/read his works published in English….
The former is the main issue only because a ton of money have been printed lately. the underlying dynamics would proceed in the same way…
I think I am seeing the next phase….now that cov$ is done they now need something else to slow everything down….A Great Depression! Except this will last a lot lot longer! Maybe forever! Look at consumption back in 2008 it was much lower except this time it will be even lower…. I can’t wait to see the look on the Baby Boomer face when what they thought was a “retirement ” is gone! Ha! Ha!
I’m not poor yet!
$50 gasoline bring it on!
as long as the gas stations have it.
WTI 127
Brent 130
it’s all good.
Russian Reset bAU tonight, baby!
Sam, I’m a Baby Boomer, born in 1958 the start of the Outer Space Age!
I must say, I or we were warned at least 30 years ago about so called retirement.
Remember the dire predictions about Social Security and folks not saving enough!!!!
Surprised that the can is still being kicked down the road tell you the truth…can’t be much of a road left.
Ain’t bitter or complaining about nothing…lucky to have been born here in USA and probably lived better than 99% that ever been born…
So, boo whoo …I don’t get a retirement …just looked up the year 1883…that’s when Germany under Otto Von Bismarck started it all…
Little over a hundred years ago…
Let’s just say my almost 100 year old Mother won the BAU lottery in Life!
No way am I going to match her retirement since 1980!!!!!
LOL Russia has taken steps that are liable to block an Iran nuclear deal that would have brought Iranian oil to the market. So, oil price up.
> Iran nuclear talks rocked by Russian demand for sanctions exemption
Moscow seeks guarantees regarding trade with Iran that would undermine west’s response to Ukraine invasion
Russia has been accused of trying to take the Iran nuclear deal hostage as part of its wider battle with the west over Ukraine, after it threw a last-minute spanner into plans for an agreement to lift a swathe of US economic sanctions on Tehran.
After months of negotiations in Vienna, a revised deal was expected to be reached within days under which US sanctions would be lifted in return for Tehran returning to full compliance with the 2015 nuclear nonproliferation deal.
But diplomatic efforts have been sent into a tailspin by Russia’s unexpected demand for written guarantees that its economic trade with Iran will be exempted from US sanctions imposed on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.
…. If Lavrov’s demand is to require the US to exempt Russian-Iranian trade from sanctions, the west is almost certain to reject the demand since it would open a huge loophole in the sanctions regime. It would then be up to Moscow whether to veto the nuclear deal altogether.
The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, dismissed Russia’s demands as “irrelevant”, saying that sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine “have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal”.
…. Russia also has a short-term strategic interest in scuppering or postponing the deal. Iran produces more than 2m barrels of oil a day, and if these supplies were able to reach the markets, the upward surge in prices would be slowed.
Russia, a large-scale oil producer, wants to drive the oil price up to turn the screw on western economies but also to boost its own revenues.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/06/iran-nuclear-talks-rocked-by-russian-demand-for-sanctions-exemption
> Oil price surges to highest since 2008 on delays in Iranian talks
NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) – Oil prices soared to their highest since 2008 due to delays to the conclusion of Iranian nuclear talks and the potential return of Iranian crude to global markets, which are already suffering from Russian supply disruptions, analysts said.
…. Brent futures rose $10.98, or 9.3%, to $129.09 a barrel by 6:28 p.m. EST (2328 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $10.38, or 9.0%, to $126.06, putting both contracts on track for their highest daily percentage gains since May 2020.
In the first few minutes of trade on Sunday, both benchmarks rose to their highest since July 2008 with Brent at $139.13 a barrel and WTI at $130.50.
Both contracts hit their highest in July 2008 with Brent at $147.50 a barrel and WTI at $147.27.
U.S. gasoline and distillate futures, meanwhile, soared to their highest on record within a few minutes of the market open on Sunday.
“Iran was the only real bearish factor hanging over the market but if now the Iranian deal gets delayed, we could get to tank bottoms a lot quicker especially if Russian barrels remain off the market for long,” said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects, a think tank.
Sen said Brent could rise to $125 per barrel on Monday, quickly approaching an all-time high of $147, last seen in 2008.
Analysts from JP Morgan said this week oil could soar to $185 per barrel this year.
“The idea was not to sanction oil and gas because of their essential nature, but oil is getting sanctioned by private actors not wanting to pick it up or ports not wanting to receive it and the longer this goes on the more supply chains are going to buckle,” said Daniel Yergin, author and vice chairman of S&P Global ahead of the CERAWeek conference in Houston.
…. Also supporting crude prices, the closure of Libya’s El Feel and Sharara oilfields resulted in the loss of 330,000 barrels per day (bpd), the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Sunday. Libya, an OPEC member, produced about 1.2 million bpd of crude in 2021, according to U.S. energy data.
In the United States, meanwhile, the average price of a gallon of gasoline hit $4.009 on Sunday, according to AAA, an automobile association, which is the highest since July 2008. Consumers are paying 40 cents more than a week ago, and 57 cents more than a month ago.
Senior U.S. officials traveled to Venezuela on Saturday for talks with President Nicolas Maduro’s government, seeking to determine whether Caracas is prepared to distance itself from close ally Russia.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-price-set-surge-further-iranian-talks-delays-2022-03-06/
We will see how long the situation continues this way.
I can’t say I blame Russia for this demand.
Russia made the demand so Russia is definitely to blame. If you mean Russia is justified in making the demand, that’s another discussion. Russia obviously made the demand to lessen the impact of sanctions; it has nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal, so if the deal is scuppered because of the demand, it will be Russia’s fault.
Mike…. you seem to come out when certain keywords or discussions are written… interesting…
Mike seems to be misunderstanding Gail’s use of the word “blame”.
Russia made this demand so Russia is definitely responsible or accountable for making the demand. Responsibility and blame are often conflated by they refer to two different things.
The question of blame only comes into play if the result of an action by a responsible actor is judged to be poor or wrong or unfavorable or undesired.
If the result of the action is judged to be good or right or favorable or desired, then the agent is likely to be rewarded with praise rather than blame.
Then there is the important distinction between blame for an undesired result and blame for taking an action leading to such a result.
We may judge the result of an action to be undesirable, but at the same time we may refrain from blaming the actor on account of the circumstances that led them to take the action. This was the case in Gail’s employment of “blame”.
> Oil Prices Break $130 As EU And U.S. Allies Consider Ban On Russian Crude
The United States has confirmed that it is in talks with European allies to potentially sanction Russian crude oil in response to Moscow’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted on Sunday during the NBC talk show Meet the Press on Sunday, “We are now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries, while of course at the same time maintaining a steady global supply of oil.”
The latest considerations follow a stream of sanctions that have already had a significant impact on the Russian economy but have not yet been able to halt Putin’s advance into Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von Der Leyen has yet not fully supported the idea as of yet, though she has expressed that one of their primary goals in the sanctions that have been levied thus far is to cut Putin’s funding streams.
The European Commission President noted on CNN, “The goal is to isolate Russia and to make it impossible for Putin to finance his wars,” adding “For us, there is a strong strategy now to say we have to get rid of the dependency of fossil fuels from Russia.”
The move, if agreed upon, has long been considered the “nuclear option” as a ban on Russian oil could weigh on global supply in an already tight market, with $150 oil not out of the question.
The situation is compacted by stalling talks with Iran over a potential new nuclear deal.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Prices-Break-130-As-EU-And-US-Allies-Consider-Ban-On-Russian-Oil.html
* They just changed the article:
> The move, if agreed upon, has long been considered the “nuclear option” as a ban on Russian oil could weigh on global supply in an already tight market.
Bank of America analysts noted that if Russia’s oil is cut off, the market could face a 5 million barrel shortfall which could push oil prices to $200 per barrel.
That would be fun, wouldn’t it?
I’m amused greatly by Putin’s “judo” technique of taking the West’s own penchant for imposing sanctions against recalcitrant weaker nations and employing this against the West’s own best short-term economic interests.
Next, as the effects of 150 or 200 dollar-a-barrel oil start to bite, they’ll be crying, “It’s not fair!”
WW3 is getting closer
U.S. and Allies In ‘Active Discussion’ on Russian Oil Ban
Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. and its European allies are having a “very active discussion” about banning imports of Russian oil as western nations continue to increase pressure on Russia to stop attacking Ukraine.
Blinken, who is traveling in Europe, said he spoke with President Joe Biden by phone on Saturday along with other cabinet officials and that the U.S. is now talking to European officials “to look in a coordinated way at the prospect of banning the import of Russian oil while making sure that there is still and appropriate supply of oil on world markets.”
The U.S. is also looking for ways to help Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, as Russia’s military continued its bombardment, including shelling civilian neighborhoods and evacuating residents.
Calling in from Moldova, Blinken told CNN’s State of the Union that the U.S. is talking to Poland about resupplying it with military equipment if Poland decides to send some of its supply of Russian-made MiG jets to Ukraine. The U.S. wants to be helpful, he said, “in making sure that whatever they provide to the Ukrainians, something goes to them to make up for any gap in the security for Poland.”
https://www.barrons.com/articles/u-s-and-allies-in-active-discussion-on-russian-oil-ban-51646595096
Gail, there is no reply-button for the main article. Coding issue? Anyways …
Would anyone be so kind as to briefly comment why the EIA total production figures don’t match from their data sets? The first shows total US production of 18mbpd and the second shows 11.6mbpd.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2&f=W
I think you will find the reply button way down at the end of the comments, which can be as long as 50 direct comments.
The reason for this obscure location is because some of the commenters liked the comments better as long strings, instead of short strings, because that way it is easier to search for a particular comment or group of comments a person is interested in. For example, it you want to see all the comments made by Harry, you can use your browser’s search function to find them. Or if you want to find the comments mentioning “uranium,” you can search as many comments as 50 at a time.
By the way, I have figured out now how I can search all old approved comments at once to find obscure information. This search function only works for me, unfortunately. So, on occasion, I can help find obscure information, if I have enough clues regarding what to look for.
Gotcha, thanks, my mistake.
Any chance you could look at the links I provided? I was wondering about the EIA production mismatch / why one says we produce 11.6mbpd and the the other says ~18.
Regarding your question regarding difference between data sets, you have to be very careful about wording. Crude oil and condensate is only part of “petroleum production.” There are also “natural gas plant liquids” (NGPLs), Other Liquids (which is mostly ethanol, but also plant oils substituting for diesel, and probably things like “coal to liquid.”) Refinery gain has to do with the fact that when long molecules in heavy oil are “cracked” using natural gas to make products like diesel, the resulting products has more volume than the crude oil that started the process. The US has historically had a lot of natural gas for cracking heavy oil, so it tends to have quite a bit of “refinery gains.”
There are quite a number of breakdowns within oil production. For example, if you look at EIA data at this tab, https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world
and then choose “Petroleum and other liquids,” it gives you some choices for reports. The first three links give you production for monthly, quarterly, and annual petroleum production. If you look at these, you can see the pieces and how they relate to each other.
A person almost has to play with the EIA website for a while, to figure out the pieces.
I should warn you that EIA data is a little different from IEA data, which is in turn somewhat different from BP data. In fact, OPEC also puts out oil data as well, and it is a little different yet. EIA weekly estimates are not necessarily very close to their monthly numbers, which are more the official numbers. Nothing lines up exactly, which is a little maddening. All of the organizations start with early estimates and later change them. So, it is a little harder to work with these data sources than it looks.
Okay, thank you!
The Ides of March approaches
OMG!!!
Brent – 129
WTI – 126
it has done a normal retracement to 124 and 128.
I want a new record!
upper 150s.
then 200.
I’m not getting any younger.
Why does it feel like everyone is yelling and bombs going off and red smoke everywhere!!?!
I wonder if we can keep BAU spinning if we beat the record of $147. hahahahahaahaha…
This is great – I just drove into town to bring my busted mate a sack of veg from the garden … and passed a petrol station … regular petrol was closing in on 3 bucks 50 a litre hahahahahahahaha
I was driving the Bat Mobile so I immediately floored it (that REALLY sucks the petrol) squealing the rubber and honking the horn while screamed SOOOOOO EEEEEEEEEE SOOOOO EEEEEEEE
Burn that petrol … as a symbolic gesture I may put a sack of coal in the Rayburn later…
The Titanic is f789ed
Hey… mike! C’heck this out:
Flu causes excess death. Flu disappears, excess death disappears. COVID doesn’t produce any excess death. The COVID vaccine causes more death than a typical flu.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-entire-new-zealand-mortality
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd2a4674d-0386-4bd2-b4a0-4dc95e9480bb_4049x2601.png
Ain’t no harm in jabbin the needle in the arm… aint no harm no harm…. do what you’re told.. ain’t no harm… just to git around get that jab in the arm… ain’t no harm no harm
Keep in mind this is only the deaths hahahaha
Another great article. Thanks a lot, Gail!
—
Today I’ve payed 1.99 for 1 litre of Diesel (ie. about 7.53 per gallon).
This is …
—
To cite the legendary FE (from March 2020) and my reply
“The aircraft is speeding towards the ground and the wings have fallen off … everyone is screaming … the attendants are shouting BRACE BRACE BRACE….”
— {I just can repeat} —
“Not so fast, Eddy!”: The scene you described reminds me of
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A45jv8uhZwo
(Madagascar – Escape 2 Africa Trailer) [Jun 7, 2008, DreamworksAnimFan]
It’s not just the wings …
—
Yes the wings have fallen off, and even worse, we are (or soon will be) stripped to bare metal.
Now even what you could have read at the deagel web site some time ago (Deagel 2025 Forecast by Country) makes sense — but is just part of some greater context — or game at play if you will.
Yes, “we may be out of fuel” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F3iBMYvQOs (Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (2008) – Penguin Plane Crash Scene (2/10) | Movieclips) [4.249.786 Aufrufe, 09.05.2019, Movieclips]
Yes, wings have fallen off and now gloves were taken off.
And
yes(!), “we may be out of fuel” …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9F3iBMYvQOs (Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa (2008) – Penguin Plane Crash Scene (2/10) | Movieclips) [4.249.786 Aufrufe, 09.05.2019, Movieclips]
Sorry for the double post.
The video clips remind me on a citation.
It’s
“Mit den Jahren komme ich zur Erkenntnis, daß uns weder Wissenschaft noch Moral, weder humanistische Ethik noch Information, erlösen können. Wenn wir eine Zierde besitzen, deren wir uns rühmen können angesichtst der Anssammlung von Nidertracht und Wiedersinn, die unsere Geschichte ausmacht — so ist diese Zierde das Lachen, der heitere Schock einer augenblickslangen Befreiung des Geistes.”
[Stanislaw Lem: Science Fiction. Ein hoffnungsloser Fall …, page 140]
{Google translate}
“Over the years I have come to the realization that neither science nor morality, neither humanistic ethics nor information can save us. If we have one grace to boast of in the assemblage of meanness and wickedness that makes up our {hi}story–that grace is laughter, the lighthearted one Shock of a momentary liberation of the spirit.”
This is a comment I made back in August 2021, regarding the forecasts that Deagel was making (which have now been taken down).
I found a you tube video that shows some of the 2019 Deagel forecasts for 2025 on this chart, before they were taken down.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CnbQCjL7cgo
I took some screen shots from this video.
This is shown at the beginning:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2019-current-amounts-for-largest-economies.png
This chart shows 2019 current amounts for the largest four economies, ordered by GDP in Purchasing Power Parity.
The first numeric column is 2019 population in millions.
The second column is total 2019 GDP in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) units. China is the largest country, with total PPP GDP of $23.491trillion. The US is second, with $18.394 trillion PPP GDP. India is third, and Japan is fourth.
The third column is total 2019 GDP in US$. The US is highest on this basis, at $21.430 trillion GDP, and China is second, at $14.330 trillion GDP/
The fourth column is defense spending. The US is highest at $732 billion PPP dollars.
The fifth column is per capita GDP in PPP$. In 2019, the US is highest, at $55,300 per person.
A longer section is shown of the 2025 forecast. Only four columns are given this time, leaving out the US$ column. All amounts are in red or green, indicating whether they are an increase or decrease from the 2019 amounts. The countries are again ordered by total PPP GDP.
I needed to take two screen shots to capture the list of 10 shown.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2019-forecasts-for-2025-top-three-countries.png
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2019-Forecasts-for-2025-countries-4-through-10.png-.png
Deagel was forecasting that in 2025, the top 10 countries by total GDP would be
1. China
2. India
3. Russia
4. Brazil
5. Indonesia
6. Japan
7. Mexico
8. United States
9. Pakistan
10. Iran
The United States population is forecast to fall to 99 million by 2025. This is down -70% relative to 332 million in 2019.
In per capita PPP GDP, Russia is forecast to be highest at $43,557. US will fall to $16,364 (which is a little below China’s 2019 per capita PPP GDP). China’s per capita GDP will be a little higher at $17,843 PPP per person.
I don’t notice any European countries on this list, indicating that they will all have fallen in total PPP GDP below Pakistan and Iran.
The pages still seem to be functional on the web archive site.
https://web.archive.org/web/20200829152902/https://www.deagel.com/country50/
https://web.archive.org/web/20200824223521/https://www.deagel.com/forecast
The web archive has been removed. Nothing on Deagel anymore to be found.
Thank you, Mirror.
The first archive page has disappeared by the second one still works for me.
Russian population forecast to be stable and per capita GDP rising significantly.
Ukraine to lose 30% of its population and per capita GDP to plunge.
Belarus not dong as bad as Ukraine but declines in pop and per capital GDP.
Forecasts for US, UK, most of EU look really miserable. China is rosy, Japan is set to be well down compared with 2021 but doing far better than the West in 2025. As for 2026, Deagel didn’t say.
I’ve long been aware of the forecast, without knowing whether it was based on good data or was just put out there for fun. Perhaps it was a bit of both?
Does anyone else get the feeling these days that we are living in a house that is structurally unsound but the landlord is smiling and insisting everything will be fine if we just ignore the termites, the dry rot, the leaky roof, the sparking electrical wiring and the blocked drains?
“Does anyone else get the feeling these days that we are living in a house that is structurally unsound but the landlord is smiling and insisting everything will be fine if we just ignore the termites, the dry rot, the leaky roof, the sparking electrical wiring and the blocked drains?”
But he just upgraded your internet connection so you can watch Netflix and Pornhub better! No need to worry about silly things like structural integrity.
I just checked and found out that the roof on may home was added on April 4, 2002. I asked what the life expectancy is of this kind of roof, and I was told 20 to 25 years. So, we will be needing to replace the roof in not many years. Asphalt (current material) and metal will both be in short supply, I would guess.
WATCH THE NZ UNDERCOVER COPS LIGHT THE FIRE AT THE PROTESTS
https://www.tiktok.com/@jakevsthestate/video/7071401414202903809
All I can say is that I’m really pleased to see the world is unravelling…
Diesel here is NZD2.97 … PER LITRE …. (around 8 bucks US per gallon?) hahahahahaahhahhahahahahahaa Get ready for mega inflation hahahaha….
Interesting article from New York Times about the possible succession of Zelensky.
In summary: we should be us to put an Ukranian successor instead of leaving Russians to do it. Subtitle: otherwise we cannot make our interests.
https://archive.ph/Y4peD
He’s got a heavy coke habit that boy… who knows what else he puts into his unit.. good idea to have a back up stooge… Hunter Biden = Perfect
What do you say norm? Joe’s boy for Ukraine pres?
How could orwell have known this was going to happen?
Simulation. Obviously
https://youtu.be/XvGmOZ5T6_Y
Perhaps Orwell has seen it in another simulation….
Those of you who’ve followed The Ice Age Farmer know what’s coming.
The perpetrators have been deliberately dismantling the worlds food supply. Logistics, war, shipping, hoarding (China), low supplies of fertiliser, crop failures etc
It occurred to me that deliberately starving the population is not beyond what diabolical people do to control & kill others.
Don’t discount it, please, because the signs are abundant.
Best wishes
Mike Yeadon
https://t.me/iceagefarmer
The Cabal are chaos politicians: for them feeling insulated from all danger, it only represents an opportunity to further their plans.
But I don’t know about that: can we we not feel something in the air these days, that the chaos might slip beyond their ability to manipulate it?
ah yes
the plans of the cabal
gotta pluck words from somewhere
Would this convince norm not to inject? https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
Oh what does it matter… what was that jingle here in NZ…
Two shots for summer get another in 3 weeks:
Two shots for summer
Vaccination is your pass to unlock summer. Find where’s close to get your dose below — you can just walk in or drive through. Get 1 now. Get another in 3 weeks. https://covid19.govt.nz/covid-19-vaccines/2-shots-for-summer/
Of course they then cancelled every single summer event across the country hahaha
F789ing MOREONS… they inject themselves with an experiment — cuz of a jingle hahahahaahahahaha
hahahahahaahaha… THIS… ahahha… is how truly … MOREONIC… a MOREON is. hahahaahaha
And then there are those who inject … for pie hahahaahaha
Are not nearly all politicians just pawns, doing as they are told, although that is probably not how they see it? The notable exceptions being Putin, maybe Xi.
Hareetz
”Israeli Minister: 90% of Ukrainian Refugees Arriving Are non-Jews, Situation ‘Cannot Go On”
https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/.premium-israeli-minister-90-of-ukrainians-refugees-are-non-jews-situation-cannot-go-on-1.10655497
Leviticus 19:18 – You shall not take vengeance, nor bear any grudge against the sons of your people, but you shall love your neighbor as yourself.
Fast Eddy : You should nuke your neighbour before he nukes you first. Sucker punch him and go for the knockout blow – then pounce on him and beat him until his IQ goes negative so that he is unable to seek revenge cuz he doesn’t know his own name
“Ukraine suspended exports of meat, rye, oats, buckwheat, sugar, millet, and salt, and announced suspension of other socially essential goods.
VOX warns that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine could hit the already hungry hardest.”
Ukraine cuts it’s trade ties with the world. The war in Ukraine isn’t real? Russia and Ukraine are working together?
Quite a few countries are “hurting badly.” The world behaves differently when there is not enough to go around.
It is too much like a game of musical chairs. In this game, music is played, and players march around a group of chairs. Each round, one chair is eliminated. The players all struggle to get a seat in the remaining chairs. Then the music starts again, and another chair is removed.
In the real world, however, if someone gets a seat you are permitted to try to drag them off by force or kill them in order to seize it for yourself.
Nonetheless, important lessons for life in what appears to be just a game.
Is it still permitted in schools where ‘everyone is a winner’ I wonder?
I bought a bunch of Russian buckwheat yesterday. Who knows when it will be available again. Polish buckwheat is crap that turns into mush when cooked.
Dutch farmer in Ukraine just on tv; we cannot plant the seeds. Russian army preventing farmers from doing their job. Africa will suffer the most. A very worried farmer being send out to spread the ‘word of worry’ by some farmers collective in Ukraine. No diesel, no seeds.
You can’t eat lgbtq. Or maybe we can…
The terms lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and questioning (LGBTQ) describe distinct groups within the gay culture.
IIRX “Q” stands for queer.
Aha … too difficult to inject the Africans … so instead starve them 🙂
MOSCOW (Nexa) — “Russia began active preparations for disconnection from the global Internet. No later than March 11, all servers and domains must be transferred to the Russian zone.”
Full war mode. Full isolation. They are using the war as an excuse to cut all ties with the West?
Sounds pretty dreadful for the West as well as for the people of Russia.
If the West are providing no business services to Russia whatsoever, and banning everyone else, then all that they are likely to use access for is sabotage. The West cannot make it any clearer they are out to destroy Russia. Cutting Russia off from those that seek to harm seems like a good move to me.
Yantar, the special mission ship reputed to be involved in spying on undersea internet cables, has left her base. The controversial ship has departed Olenya Guba near the Kola Peninsular in Russia’s arctic north.
Analysis of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from today shows her usual pier empty. A ship matching her is also seen in the imagery out at sea.
In Russian sources Yantar is described as a ‘Special Purpose Ship’ or ‘Oceanographic vessel’. In the West however she is regarded as a spy ship. Her forte is surveying undersea cables and possibly tapping, delousing or sabotaging them.
http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Spy-Ship-Yantar-2022-03-06.html
Russia has began active preparations for disconnection from the global Internet.
All servers and domains must be transferred to the Russian zone no later than March 11.
March 11 is just a few days before the Ides off March (the 15th). We have been taught to beware them, and also April, which David likes to remind us is the cruelest month.
Hmmm….
Thai police have also revealed Warne was suffering chest pains before he left Australia for a holiday in Thailand.
Police Colonel Yuthana Sirisombat told reporters on Saturday night his family had informed them of the late cricket legend’s history of heart disease and asthma and their concern about his health before he left Australia last week.
The 52-year-old had recently “seen a doctor about his heart”, Sirisombat said.
“A large amount of blood was found in the room,” Pol Maj Gen Satit Polpinit, commander of Surat Thani Provincial Police, told Thai newspaper Matichon.
“When CPR was started, the deceased had coughed up liquid and was bleeding.”
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/shane-warne-death-sad-details-emerge-of-cricket-legends-final-moments/AMJMZJSR53DBFJ3INNARWJOCOQ/
The nzherald is not a reliable source of information. It is fake media bought and paid for by the transdonkey.
Bodies on the street – where? Photos?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60637338
When a beacon of world journalism like BBC says that the streets are littered with corpses, it seems distasteful and very impertinent to ask them to show documentary evidence of this. C’mon the BBC’s word is not enough? Of course it is. Just as the word of virologists and epidemiologists was enough to show us that an epidemic was underway for which the only cure was an experimental drug. We must trust the Experts. Follow the News, follow the Science!
Pingback: Russia's Attack On Ukraine Represents A Demand For A New World Order -
Of course he could be tired, but we could also take into consideration what have been said by some people about his conditions about drugs.
”According to the professional opinion of a narcologist, psychiatrist Vasily Shurov , the strange behavior of the supreme commander of the Ukrainian armed forces could indicate problems with alcohol, drugs or tranquilizers”
https://www.pravda.ru/news/world/1687936-o_sostojanii_zelenskogo/
$9.6 /gal for diesel here in Sweden. It went pretty quick from humble beginnings. Methink we will get closer to $15 before it turns down again. And then 25 in the next wave. I’m very happy as long as we can buy the stuff at all.
PS FE: What is this “mike” and “norm” u keep harpin bout? pologize a newcomer on forum
PPS FE – I dont believe in any sh*tty “CEP” or whatevery you call it. Not enough brainpower around to pull off such a stunt.
Pshhh…. norm and mike are WEF insiders. Its kind of a guerilla warfare for the resistence. It is really better to attend church. Light some candles, and get out of paper.
Oddys
mike and I are 2 of the few people on OFW (the rest have left, with better things to do.) who point out that FE is a conspiralunatic, who has no other forum for his juvenile rantings than here. Like all conspiranuts, like attracts like, so OFW has become a magnet for them
I make the occasional comment, not for eddy, but for the many who read this forum and make no comment.
the fact that so many have left ‘proves’ he is right, when in fact they and we have better things to do, and find he endless repetition just too tiresome to deal with. I look in occasionally for mild amusement. It is worth no more than that now. We generally ignore him, which annoys him even more.
Think of the guy in your town square who rants at passers by–most roll their eyes and walk quickly on.
Hence we attract his verbal outpourings, because we point out his contradictions, his manglings of the English language, and all round (documented) BS.
Take note of the endless repetition, the ‘mock swearwords’ (the inability to construct narrative without them–a certain sign of poor grasp of the nuance of English, and lack of reasoning power—nothing to say?–use a four letter Anglo Saxon word, out of context.), the verbal abuse of those who disagree, and the endless promotion of ‘self’ in the third person. (weirdly unique in that respect woouldn’t you say?)
I used to think it was self irony–but it”s been going on too long.
using eddys ‘anglo saxon’ language ‘in very precise context’ is very beautiful–but that’s on a different verbal plane altogether. Nothing to do with OFW. Beyond his comprehension. I don’t need numbers to fill in missing letters.
Only the weak are unable to deal with questions and doubt.
Thus anything mildly debatable must call us into question—for no better reason than Mike and I ‘question’…which is what this forurm is supposed to be all about.
You are quite correct in the CEP thing—but eddy says it is ‘so’–so it must be true. You quite right call BS, which anyone with a shred of comment sense would agree with. I’ve written detailed explanations as to why you are correct in calling BS—stick with it.
That etymology seems to be questionable.
> The earliest examples of the word otherwise are from Scottish, which suggests a Scandinavian origin, perhaps from a word akin to Norwegian dialectal fukka “copulate,” or Swedish dialectal focka “copulate, strike, push,” and fock “p/nis.”
my ‘anglo saxon’ reference denoted common usage, not a dissertation on the origins of language itself
the origins of words goes back into unrecorded history, before writing was invented
Hi Norm,
I am one of the readers who doesn’t comment. I find your posts informative, succinct, and quite helpful to understand the situation. Thank you for posting and I look forward to more of your writing.
BSC
norm’s taken on a groupie … how wonderful!
Be careful though BSC… norm is boosted so he’s got the VAIDS.
E-Uuuuuuuuuuuuuu
Maybe the groupie will answer “why the children?” ?
you are echoing the echo chamber
why inject the children…… why inject the children….. why inject the children….
do you mind asking norm to explain this https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
Thanks for your comment BSC
you can judge the effect of it by the fatuous response from other quarters.
the self styled emperor cannot stand deflection of his limelight, or stealing of his soapbox.
the weakling cannot deal with criticism, a universal trait.
one can learn so much from such sources
Is that you communicating with you — or is that your suck-u-bus?
enough of the frivolity … let’s get down to business
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
Are you taking more boosters norm? Valid question – if so – why?
3 people visit OFW to read norm’s regurgitation … and 250,000 come for the Fast Eddy show.
norm tries to put on a show… but norm doesn’t have the Horse Power … he comes across as a drooling geriatric who wears adult diapers… makes squishy sounds when he shifts on his chair, and has the stench about him … you know the stench … that old people have.. it’s a combination of stale urine and poop… sweat… (cuz they don’t shower for fear of falling) — and dust.
Because he is that
Booster shot time norm.. Number 4 I believe? Why don’t you tell us why you keep getting these shots when we have shown you evidence that you are more likely to die if you get covid https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
Come on norm… give us your original thoughts… Gail will not help you .. and you can forget about mike… he’s at the pie shop
Well, this is life in these forums. FE is a bit noisy but easy on the mind compared to many others. I found the rants of Hypertiger over at PeakOil forums more difficult to ignore.
hadnt heard of him
“CEP” compassionate extinction plan, is a hypothesis for why, when you have a illness that is 99.97% survivable across the board would you rush out a vaccine (vaccines usually are developed over 10 years) and then force everyone in western nations to take it? Is it a last money grab by pharma? Or something else? Malone and Van der Bossche have spoken repeatedly about the dangers of vaccinating in the middle of a “pandemic”, this leads to evolutionary pressure for the virus to mutate…perhaps into “devil covid” that kills a substantial percentage of the population..- who knows?
There are not enough resources to go around and sometimes doing nothing causes the most suffering. Maybe the vaccine is a way for tptb to do something…immune suppression, sterility, cancers – people voluntarily acquiesced so…their choice..amirite?
Norm, I do like reading your energy comments and your articles..please stick around…
norm is only regurgitating what Gail has written … what we want since norm insists covid and the injections are not conspiracies..
is for norm to explain this https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=1537
Come on norm … this is your opportunity at redemption
ya… come on norm!
here is norm’s other groupie
https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220302/14438627/Ukrainian-President-Volodymyr-Zelensky-in-gay-show.htm
Of course, FE, that he really likes doing this sort of thing makes his Fight For Democracy and Freedom (TM) all the more brave!
People should be forced to watch this video over and over until the truth sinks in.
JMS, my wife and I retired early and shocked others who couldn’t possibly understand it when I said we had enough and didn’t need to kowtow to the System anymore. I do admit to ego gratification and vindication concerning my healthy, slim body at 66 and the decision to refrain from reproducing. There are, after all, various versions of status.
Luckily I, inspired from a young age by the slogan “Ne travaillez jamais” of the situationists, have always been very clear about two things, that I didn’t want to live as a labor slave to satisfy the majority’s expectations of success, and that my main goal in life was to get plenty of free time to read and write. I have been working for thirty years and have never had a schedule of more than five hours a day. That’s all the success I’ve ever been interested in.
Why is Russia fighting by the Marcus of Queensbury rules? When does the fight to win start?
Good Question..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo&t=67s
I posted this here before and he sounds like a reasonable end game plan Russia aims for
From ‘The Times of Israel’ it appears that Blinken has just given green light for WWIII.
Nato members are allowed to give jets to Ukraine to fight Russia.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/blinken-says-nato-members-have-green-light-to-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine/
Wouldn’t have been better and safer to accept a neutral Ukraine?
Exactly right.
Not when the world is running out of resources – particularly gas – and Russia has it for the taking
Well, there is ‘for the taking’, and there is the ‘taking’. Not the same thing.
Could be interesting if those planes are allowed to fly off non Ukranian airbases.
Dennis L.
I guess it depends if the Polish considers that as something wise. Then they’ve gotta find the pilots ready to face off with the various S300/S400, etc. batteries.
I wish them good luck.
Will Ukrainian pilots leave Ukraine, and go to wherever, in order to fly the planes into Ukraine in the first place – or will NATO pilots fly them into Ukraine in order to deliver them – and would Russian pilots then try to shoot down the planes before they land and pass into the hands of Ukrainian pilots – which would pit Russian and NATO pilots in dog fights or call Russian anti-aircraft weapons into play? It is an insane move that is liable to introduce direct Russia-NATO conflict into the situation, which could then escalate. NATO looks pretty insane at this point. NATO needs to back away, if it is even capable of that, which looks doubtful.
Putin seems to foresee your scenario.
> Russia warns it is at WAR with ANY country hosting Ukrainian fighter jets and points finger at Romania in new escalation threat – as US gives Poland ‘green light’ to give Kyiv Migs
The Ukrainian armed forces were supposed to attack Crimea and Donbass on March 8, 2022, said the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, and showed journalists the evidence: a map of the Ukrainian army and a laptop from the Nazi headquarters with data on the offensive.
https://t.me/rusvesnasu/15378