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Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order that, over the long term, will support higher prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. Such an economy would probably be centered on Russia and China. The rest of the world economy, to the extent that it continues to exist, will largely have to get along without fossil fuels, other than the fossil fuels that countries continue to produce for themselves. Population and living standards will fall in most of the world.
If a Russia-and-China-centric economy can be developed, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Trade will be in the currency of the new Russia-China block. Outside of this block, local currencies will play a dominant role. Most of today’s debt will ultimately be defaulted upon; to the extent that this debt is replaced, it will be replaced with debt in local currencies.
As I see the situation, the underlying problem is the fact that, on a world basis, energy consumption per capita is shrinking. Energy consumption is essential for creating goods and services.
The shrinking amount of energy per person means that, on average, fewer and fewer finished goods and services can be produced for each person. Some countries do better than average; others do worse. With low fossil fuel prices, Russia has been faring worse than average; it wants to remedy the situation with long-term higher energy prices. If Russia can start transferring its energy exports to China, perhaps the new Russia-China economy, with limited support from the rest of the world, can afford to pay Russia the high prices for fossil fuels that Russia requires to maintain its economy.
In this post, I will try to explain what I see is happening.
[1] It appears that Russia now fears that it is near collapse, not too different from the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Such a collapse would lead to a huge drop in Russia’s living standards, even from today’s relatively low level.
If we look back at the Soviet Union’s energy consumption, we see a strange pattern. The Soviet Union’s energy consumption rose rapidly in the period after World War II. It became a military rival of the US, as its energy consumption grew in the 1965 to 1985 period. Its energy consumption leveled off before the central government collapsed in 1991. In fact, energy consumption has never gotten back to its level in the late 1980s.
[2] The thing that seems to have been behind the 1991 collapse is the same thing that seems to be behind Russia’s current fear of collapse: continued low oil prices.
When we look back at inflation-adjusted oil prices, we see that a long period of low prices preceded this collapse. These low prices were harmful in many ways. They reduced funds for reinvestment, which led to the collapse in oil supply. They reduced the funds available to pay wages. They also reduced the tax revenue that the Soviet Union could collect.
I believe that these chronically low oil prices ultimately brought down the top layer of the government of the Soviet Union. This is because of the physics of the situation. It takes energy to provide the services of the top level of the government. As the total energy that could be purchased by the system fell because of low prices received for exports, it became impossible to support this top level of governmental services. This top layer was less essential than the lower levels of government, so it fell away.
In recent times, there has also been a long period of low prices, since about 2013:
Unless this pattern of low prices can be reversed quickly, Russia as a political entity could collapse. Exports of all of the goods it now produces would likely fall.
[3] While oil prices depend on “supply and demand,” as a practical matter, demand is very dependent on interest rates and debt levels. The higher the debt level and the lower the interest rate, the higher the price of oil can rise.
If we look back at Figure 4, we can see that before the US subprime housing bubble popped in 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices were able to rise to $157 per barrel, adjusted to the 2020 price level. Once the debt bubble popped, inflation-adjusted oil prices fell to $49 per barrel. It was at this low point (and correspondingly low prices for many other commodities) that the US started its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates.
After two years of QE, oil prices were back above $140 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices, but these soon started sliding down. By the time oil prices dropped to $120 per barrel, oil companies started to complain that prices were falling too low to meet all of their needs, including the need to drill in ever less productive areas. Now we are at a point where interest rates are about as low as they can go. Short-term interest rates are near zero, which is where they were in the late 1930s.
The quantity of funds in people’s checking and savings accounts is at an extraordinarily high level, as well. This is partly because of the availability of debt at these low interest rates.
Thus, even before the Ukrainian invasion, oil prices were raised about as high as they could go, through low interest rates and generous debt availability. With all this stimulus, Brent Spot Oil prices averaged $86.51 in January 2022. Even now, with all the disruption of the attack by Russia against Ukraine, oil prices are below the $120 threshold that producers seem to need. This price issue, plus the corresponding low-price issues for natural gas and coal, is the problem that Russia is concerned about.
Prices for imported coal and natural gas have bounced very high in the last few months, but no one expects these high prices to last. For one thing, they are too high for the European manufacturers that use imported coal or natural gas to stay in business. For example, producers that create urea fertilizer using natural gas find that the price of fertilizer produced in this way is way too high for farmers to afford. For another, the electricity produced by burning the high-priced natural gas or coal tends to be too expensive for European households to afford.
[4] The fundamental problem behind recent low oil prices is the fact that the current mix of consumers cannot afford goods and services produced using the high oil prices that producers, such as Russia, need to operate, pay high enough wages, and do adequate reinvestment.
When the price of oil was very low, back before 1970 (see Figure 3), it was relatively easy for consumers to afford goods and services made with oil. This was the period when the world economy was growing rapidly, and many people could afford to purchase automobiles and buy the oil products needed to operate them.
Once the cost of oil extraction started rising because of depletion, it became more and more difficult to keep prices both:
- High enough for oil producers, such as Russia, and
- Low enough to make affordable goods for consumers, as was possible prior to 1970
To try to hide the increasingly difficult problem of keeping prices both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers, central banks have lowered interest rates and encouraged the use of more debt. The idea is that if a person can buy a fuel-efficient car at a low enough interest rate and over a long enough term, perhaps this will make the vehicle more affordable. Similarly, interest rates on home mortgages have fallen to very low levels. All of this, plus the fact that debt is used to finance new factories and mines, leads to the relationship we saw in Figure 4 between oil prices and debt availability, related to interest rates.
[5] No one knows precisely how much oil, coal and natural gas can be extracted because the quantity that can be extracted depends on the extent of the price rise that can be tolerated without plunging the economy into recession.
If prices of these fossil fuels can rise very high (say, $300 per barrel for oil, and correspondingly high prices for other fossil fuels), a huge amount of fossil fuel can be extracted. Conversely, if energy prices cannot stay above the equivalent of $80 per barrel oil for very long without a serious recession, then we may already be very close to the end of available fossil fuel extraction. Both oil and gas producers and coal producers can be expected to go out of business because prices do not leave a sufficient margin for the required investment in new fields to offset the depletion of existing fields. Renewables will falter, as well, because both building and maintaining renewables requires fossil fuels.
The amount of resources of any kind (fossil fuels and minerals such as lithium, uranium, copper and zinc) that can be extracted depends upon the extent of depletion that the economy can tolerate. Depletion of any kind of resource means that a bigger effort (more workers, more machinery, more energy products) is required to extract a given quantity of each resource. It is clear that the entire economy cannot be transferred to the extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources. For example, some workers and resources are needed for growing and transporting food. This puts a limit on how much depletion can be tolerated.
What Russia (as well as every other oil producer) would like is a way to get the tolerable oil price up significantly higher, for example, to $150 per barrel, so that more oil can be extracted. The hope is that a Russia-and-China-centric economy might be able to do this. Ideally, the tolerable maximum price for coal and natural gas would rise, as well.
[6] Europe, in particular, cannot afford high oil prices. If interest rates are increased soon, this will make the problem even worse. China seems to have definite advantages as an economic partner.
Europe is already having difficulty tolerating very high prices of imported natural gas and coal. Rising oil prices will add even more stress. Central banks are planning to raise interest rates. These higher interest rates will make loan payments more expensive. These higher interest rates will tend to push Europe’s economy further toward recession.
Given the problems with Europe as an energy importer, China would seem to have the possibility of being a better customer that can perhaps tolerate higher prices. For one thing, China is more efficient in its use of energy products than Europe. For example, many homes in the southern half of China are not heated in winter. People instead dress warmly inside their homes in winter. Also, homes and businesses in northern China are sometimes heated with waste heat from nearby coal-fired electricity plants. This is a very efficient approach to heating.
China also uses more coal in its energy mix than Europe. Historically, coal has been much less expensive than oil. What is needed is a low average price of energy. A small amount of high-priced oil can be tolerated in an economy that uses mostly coal in its energy mix. When all costs are counted, wind and solar are very high-priced energy sources, which contributes to Europe’s problems.
In recent years, China’s consumption of energy products has been growing very rapidly. Perhaps, in the view of Russia, China can use high-priced fossil fuel better than other parts of the world.
[7] Russia realized that the rest of the world is utterly dependent upon its fossil fuel exports. Because of this dependency, as well as the physics-based connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the making of finished goods and services, Russia holds huge power over the world economy.
The world economy should have known about the importance of fossil fuels and the likelihood that the world economy would face depletion issues in the first half of the 21st century, ever since a speech by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957. In this speech, Rickover said,
We live in what historians may someday call the Fossil Fuel Age. . .With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. . . A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.
Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.
. . . it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at sometime between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.
I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America’s youngsters the best possible education [including the energy problem of a world with finite resources].
Many people today would conclude that world leaders have done their best to ignore this advice. The likely problem with fossil fuels has been hidden behind an imaginative, but false, narrative that our biggest problem is climate change caused primarily by fossil fuel extraction that can be expected to extend until at least 2100, unless positive steps are made to hold back this extraction.
In this false narrative, all the world needs to do is to move to wind and solar for its energy needs. As I discussed in my most recent post, titled Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer, this narrative of success is completely false. Instead, we seem to be hitting energy limits in the near term because of chronically low prices. Wind and solar are doing very little to help because they cannot be depended upon when needed. Furthermore, the quantity of wind and solar available is far too low to replace fossil fuels.
Few people in America and Europe realize that the world economy is entirely dependent upon Russia’s exports of oil, coal and natural gas. This dependency can be seen in many ways. For example, in 2020, 41% of world natural gas exports came from Russia. Natural gas is especially important for balancing electricity from wind and solar.
North America has historically played only a very small role in natural gas exports; it is questionable whether North America can ramp up its total natural gas production in the future, given the depletion problems being experienced with respect to the extraction of oil and the associated natural gas from shale formations. Continuously high oil prices are necessary to justify ramping up production outside of sweet spots. If drillers consider long-term prospects for oil prices to be too low, the associated natural gas will not be collected.
Europe is especially dependent upon natural gas imports (Figure 9). Its imports of natural gas exceed the exports of Russia and its affiliated countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, referred to as Russia+ in Figures 8 and 9.
Without the natural gas exports of Russia and its close affiliates, there is no possibility of supplying adequate natural gas exports to the rest of the world.
Diesel fuel, created by refining oil, is another energy product that is in critically short supply, especially in Europe. Diesel fuel is used to power trucks and farm tractors, as well as many European automobiles. An Argus Media report indicates that Russian supplies account for 50% to 60% of Europe’s seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil, amounting to 4 to 6 million tons of fuel per month. It likely would be impossible to replace these imports, using supplies from elsewhere, without bidding the price of these imported fuels up to a much higher price level than today. Even then, countries outside Europe would be left with inadequate diesel supplies.
[8] Russia’s attack on Ukraine seems to have been made for many reasons.
Russia was clearly frustrated with the current situation, with NATO becoming increasingly assertive within Ukraine itself, even though Ukraine is not itself a NATO member. Russia is also aware that in some sense, it has far more power over the world economy than most people realize because the world economy is utterly dependent on Russia’s fossil fuel exports (Section 7). Sanctions against Russia will likely hurt the countries making the sanctions as much or more than they hurt Russia.
There were also several concerns that were specifically Ukrainian giving rise to the attack on Ukraine. There had been long standing conflicts about natural gas pipelines. Was Ukraine taking too much natural gas out as a transit fee? Was it paying the correct fee for the natural gas it used? Ukraine also seems to have mistreated quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians over the years.
Russia has become increasingly frustrated with the small share of the world’s output of goods and services that it receives. The way the economic system works today, those who provide “services” seem to receive a disproportionate share of the world’s output of goods and services. Russia, with its extraction of minerals of many kinds, including fossil fuels, has not been well compensated for the great wealth that it brings to the world as a whole.
Over the years, Russia’s great strength has been its military. Perhaps Ukraine would not be too large a country to do battle over. Russia might be able to eliminate some of its irritations with Ukraine. At the same time, it might be able to make changes that would help to raise what have become chronically low fossil fuel prices. The sanctions that other countries would make would tend to push the required changes along more quickly.
If the sanctions really did push Russia down, the result would tend to push the whole world economy toward collapse, because the rest of the world is extremely dependent upon Russia’s fossil fuel exports. In Figure 1, the laws of physics say that there is a proportional response to the quantity of energy “dissipated”; if a greater output of goods and services is desired, more energy input is required. Efficiency changes can somewhat help, but efficiency savings tend to be offset by the higher energetic needs of the more complex system required to achieve these savings.
If energy prices do not rise high enough, we will somehow need to get along with very little or no fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewables will last very long either because they depend upon fossil fuels for their maintenance and repair.
[9] If higher energy prices cannot be achieved, there is a significant chance that the change in the world order will be in the direction of pushing the world economy toward collapse.
We are living in a world today with shrinking energy resources per capita. We should be aware that we are reaching the limits of fossil fuels and other minerals that we can extract, unless we can somehow figure out a way to get the economy to tolerate higher prices.
The danger that we are approaching is that the top levels of governments, everywhere in the world, will either collapse or be overthrown by their unhappy citizens. The reduced amounts of energy available will push governments in this way. At the same time, programs such as government-funded pension plans and unemployment plans will disappear. Electricity is likely to become intermittent and then fail completely. International trade will shrink back; economies will become much more local.
We were warned that we would be reaching a time period with serious energy problems about now. The first time came in the 1957 Rickover speech discussed in Section 7. The second warning came from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, which documented a computer modeling approach to the problem of limits of a finite world. The Ukraine invasion may be a push in the direction of more serious energy problems, emerging primarily from the fact that other countries will want to punish Russia. Few people will realize that punishing Russia is a dangerous path; a serious concern is that today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.
World’s Biggest Diesel Importer France Shows Strain of Russia-Ukraine Crisis
(Bloomberg) — The world’s biggest importer of diesel is flashing another warning sign of the pain drivers face from the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Prices of the fuel in France have overtaken those of gasoline for the first time in recent years, according to the International Energy Agency, which is based in Paris and advises most major economies.
The rare crossover in the two products “means that suppliers do see tensions on diesel flows,” said Kristine Petrosyan, the agency’s refining analyst.
Recent market moves indicate that traders fear a looming shortfall in diesel, which Europe imports in large quantities from Russia. The country is being increasingly pushed out of the global energy market in retaliation for its attack on Ukraine, triggering concerns about disruptions to supply.
The price of diesel in northwest Europe surged on Monday to the highest in at least three-decades, reaching $1,369.50 a ton before easing back, according to ICE Futures Europe data. The premium for prompt deliveries of the motor fuel surged as high as $85 a ton on Friday, the strongest in data going back to early 2008, illustrating the rush to secure immediate supplies.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/world-s-biggest-diesel-importer-france-shows-strain-of-russia-ukraine-crisis-1.1733658
U.S. Airlines Face Dilemma Over Raising Fares as Fuel Costs Jump
(Bloomberg) — U.S. airlines are unlikely to raise fares enough to completely offset jet-fuel costs that are at their highest levels in more than a decade.
Uncertainty over global oil supply has boosted prices since Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The spot jet-fuel price in New York harbor has surged 60% since the start of 2022 to $3.67 a gallon Monday, the highest since 2008. As recently as January, the biggest U.S. airlines forecast jet fuel at no more than $2.50 or so for the first quarter.
Fuel can account for as much as a third of airline expenses when the price jumps. The increased cost — combined with the risk that demand to Europe will suffer because of the war in Ukraine — is hitting airlines just as they are counting on spring and summer trips to fill planes on domestic flights. International travel remains well below pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/u-s-airlines-face-dilemma-over-raising-fares-as-fuel-costs-jump-1.1733853
Doubt Santa Claus Joey will bail out the Airlines this time around.
My experience with Corporate is pay cuts and concessions from the work groups….
The lower tier of ticket/gate and ramp agents get hit first. Doubt Pilot group will be touched because there is a shortage of pilots. Flight Attendants will be asked to help out the Company.
Labor is one variable expense that is touchable….
Been here before…looks like layoffs and city closures may be coming.
Management acts fast and this seems already bake in the cake
https://thehighwire.com/videos/the-return-of-hiv/
Orange County Public Schools (Florida)
NEW for the 2021-22 school year, electrocardiogram (ECG) screenings are REQUIRED for high school students wishing to participate in athletic programs. ECG screenings help identify athletes who are at risk for sudden cardiac arrest which is the leading cause of death in athletics.
https://www.ocps.net/departments/athletics/sports_physicals
Strange!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6U5DU5GGT20
He is not factoring in the energy situation … it is critical … and the west wants to seize russian energy and allocate it to Europe … and let the russians starve… so they have more resolve than he believes…
If I was Vlad – I’d just unleash the nukes now … the west is going to keep ratcheting up the pressure till they break him… so just get it over with
“If I was Vlad – I’d just unleash the nukes now … the west is going to keep ratcheting up the pressure till they break him… so just get it over with”
That very well could happen and the way things are going and the world being run by a collective bunch of incompetent world leaders, that might not be a bad thing. Let’s see if the insects can do a better job of living on this planet.
I would at least like fair warning so I can go outside and open up my beach chair before the large flash of white light appears.
Vlad is not a fan of wokism and all that garbage… I suspect he frowns upon the twerked out culture and other rot that has infected the west…. and he knows that will be imposed on Russia should he fail…
All it would likely take for him to give the order is him to wake up on the wrong side of the bed and say to hell with all this … what’s the point … and Let er Rip.
stop worrying Rodster
eddy has informed us that Zelensky is gay.
no doubt that is relevant
He is also a cocaine addict … see the videos of him sniffling and twitching..
havent had any scornful criticism of a winter paralymics eddy
or are they beneath your contempt?
Seems like a good idea – from a Russian point of view.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/europe-hopes-cut-dependence-russian-gas-almost-80-year
Gas goes up maybe 100% at the margin, Russia gets to sell less gas at higher prices except to people it likes, done carefully it has increased positive cash flow.
Diplomats must all be cut from the same cloth, confuse policy with reality.
Dennis L.
Ukraine on Fire oliver stone
https://www.bitchute.com/video/Dq8WHsXmpJAx/
https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-the-individual-is-handicapped-by-coming-face-to-face-with-a-conspiracy-so-monstrous-j-edgar-hoover-56-43-10.jpg
https://t.me/robinmg/16805
https://t.me/robinmg/16807
Sports physicals are done primarily to make sure you are not at high risk for sudden cardiac death on the playing field. COVID vaccination affects your risk. In response to worldwide experience and vaccine adverse-event monitoring we are adopting a more precautionary sports physical sign-off policy: If you have received doses of any COVID shot, we will not be able to clear you to compete in sports without completing lab work and possibly an echocardiogram to rule out potential heart damage.
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politics/megan-fox/2022/03/04/did-a-va-pediatrician-post-a-warning-about-the-vax-putting-kids-in-sports-at-risk-of-cardiac-arrest-n1563710
Other pediatricians will be in a tight spot if this notice gains attention and traction. Grieving parents can come back to pediatricians and ask, “Why did you clear my child for sports?! Why didn’t you do all the lab work and complete an echocardiogram?”
Better question: why did you jab my kid, or let him be jabbed, in the first place?
norm – do you mind to explain
“There is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”
No harm in wearing an N95 mask when pregnant — BTW – there are studies pre covid checking on the impact of those masks on pregnant women working in jobs that require masks…
They would not allow the women in the test to wear for over an hour at a time – due to ethical considerations
jahahahahaahahaha
No harm in supporting sanctions against Russia to insure basic energy needs are no longer affordable and limiting what healthy food is around or mortgage payments can be maintained, vax stacked or not.
At least the vaccinated will be still able to get around so they can fight over the limited spaces under the bridge when not tending their coincidental auto co-morbidities
Hay ya think da Swamps getting drained?
The vacxed have the privilege of packing sandbags for Australia’s floods. Unvacxed ordered to stay home! Not allowed to help!
[Great way to make the vacxed hate the unvacxed even more.]
Get around, certainly maybe in a wheelchair: but not run around the sports field in the Meat Pie Challenge ….
No harm in a few sorties out of Poland.
“I have frequently said, ‘We’re going to lead with the science, the science is going to be the foundation of everything we do.’ That is entirely true,’ she said. ‘I think the public heard that science is foolproof, science is black and white, science is immediate, and we get the answer and then we make the decision based on the answer. And the truth is science is gray, and science is not always immediate, and sometimes it takes months and years to actually find out the answer. But you have to make decisions in a pandemic before you have that answer.’” – Rochelle Walensky, CDC.
From the Gerald Medoff Visiting Professor Lecture: “Lessons from the Pandemic for the Future of Public Health” at Washington University. March 3, 2022.
The Book Of Research Chapter 1
vs 1 In the beginning was the 101 and the 101 said ‘test your hypothesis and the hypothesis was tested. Then the 102 was, and the 102 said ‘accept and don’t challenge results and results were accepted and not challenged. Then the 103 was and the 103 said ‘always have a control group and the control group was selected and maintained and so the 104 was, and the 104 said beware of conformation bias and awareness of confrontation bias was objectively monitored.
vs 2 Therefore manifold knowledge and wisdom was and became obtainable and many benefits were expounded and the benefit was past on and so sentient beings thrived and felt joy and confident in their knowledge and information was canonised.
vs 4 But the pathway for some was too difficult, they conceived of a short cut method and bypassing was born in their hearts and the possibility of the shortcut took hold in their minds and in the face of entropy they sort the quick gain in mimicry of the standards and the possibility of gain and will to power took hold and sentience fell into greed and desire to gain and exploit.
vs 5 Then the greedy sentience spoke and said ‘Hay I can’t make any money out of this, how can we get funding? And the opinionated -104 was and the opinionated -104 said ‘I know I’m right’ and the -103 was and the -103 said ‘We don’t need a control group and so the -102 was and the -102 said ‘This treatment will work no matter what and the -101 was and the -101 said put a gag order on the research data and records.
‘What is Truth’, said jesting Pontius Pilate…….
Calling norm’s groupie — hello norm’s groupie .. norm needs you immediately … he needs suckor… red alert to norm’s groupie… where are you
“Russia has nothing to do with the current price hike on market volatility.”
well yes and no
https://www.rt.com/russia/551442-oil-gas-prices-novak/
“Removing Russian oil from the market would make energy prices skyrocket to over $300 per barrel of oil, Russia’s deputy prime minister, Aleksandr Novak, said on Monday”
yes but not for long
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/cathie-wood-admits-defeat-12-bearish-oil-target-prices-top-120
I about did a spit take when I read this … it truly exemplifies how they think
USA is forcing de-dollarisation.
> The American Empire self-destructs. But nobody thought that it would happen this fast
Empires often follow the course of a Greek tragedy, bringing about precisely the fate that they sought to avoid. That certainly is the case with the American Empire as it dismantles itself in not-so-slow motion.
The basic assumption of economic and diplomatic forecasting is that every country will act in its own self-interest. Such reasoning is of no help in today’s world. Observers across the political spectrum are using phrases like “shooting themselves in their own foot” to describe U.S. diplomatic confrontation with Russia and allies alike. But nobody thought that The American Empire would self-destruct this fast.
For more than a generation the most prominent U.S. diplomats have warned about what they thought would represent the ultimate external threat: an alliance of Russia and China dominating Eurasia. America’s economic sanctions and military confrontation have driven these two countries together, and are driving other countries into their emerging Eurasian orbit.
American economic and financial power was expected to avert this fate. During the half-century since the United States went off gold in 1971, the world’s central banks have operated on the Dollar Standard, holding their international monetary reserves in the form of U.S. Treasury securities, U.S. bank deposits and U.S. stocks and bonds. The resulting Treasury-bill Standard has enabled America to finance its foreign military spending and investment takeover of other countries simply by creating dollar IOUs. U.S. balance-of-payments deficits end up in the central banks of payments-surplus countries as their reserves, while Global South debtors need dollars to pay their bondholders and conduct their foreign trade.
This monetary privilege – dollar seignorage – has enabled U.S. diplomacy to impose neoliberal policies on the rest of the world, without having to use much military force of its own except to grab Near Eastern oil.
The recent escalation of U.S. sanctions blocking Europe, Asia and other countries from trade and investment with Russia, Iran and China has imposed enormous opportunity costs – the cost of lost opportunities – on U.S. allies. And the recent confiscation of the gold and foreign reserves of Venezuela, Afghanistan and now Russia,[1] along with the targeted grabbing of bank accounts of wealthy foreigners (hoping to win their hearts and minds, enticed by the hope for the return of their sequestered accounts), has ended the idea that dollar holdings – or now also assets in sterling and euro NATO satellites of the dollar – are a safe investment haven when world economic conditions become shaky.
So I am somewhat chagrined as I watch the speed at which this U.S.-centered financialized system has de-dollarized over the span of just a year or two. The basic theme of my Super Imperialism has been how, for the past fifty years, the U.S. Treasury-bill standard has channeled foreign savings to U.S. financial markets and banks, giving Dollar Diplomacy a free ride. I thought that de-dollarization would be led by China and Russia moving to take control of their economies to avoid the kind of financial polarization that is imposing austerity on the United States.[2] But U.S. officials are forcing Russia, China and other nations not locked into the U.S. orbit to see the writing on the wall and overcome whatever hesitancy they had to de-dollarize.
I had expected that the end of the dollarized imperial economy would come about by other countries breaking away. But that is not what has happened. U.S. diplomats themselves have chosen to end international dollarization, while helping Russia build up its own means of self-reliant agricultural and industrial production. This global fracture process actually has been going on for some years, starting with the sanctions blocking America’s NATO allies and other economic satellites from trading with Russia. For Russia, these sanctions had the same effect that protective tariffs would have had.
Russia had remained too enthralled by free-market neoliberal ideology to take steps to protect its own agriculture and industry. The United States provided the help that was needed by imposing domestic self-reliance on Russia. When the Baltic states obeyed American sanctions and lost the Russian market for their cheese and other farm products, Russia quickly created its own cheese and dairy sector – while becoming the world’s leading grain exporter.
Russia is discovering (or is on the verge of discovering) that it does not need U.S. dollars as backing for the ruble’s exchange rate. Its central bank can create the rubles needed to pay domestic wages and finance capital formation. The U.S. confiscations of its dollar and euro reserves may finally lead Russia to end its adherence to neoliberal monetary philosophy, as Sergei Glaziev has long been advocating, in favor of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)…………
https://thesaker.is/america-shoots-its-own-dollar-empire-in-economic-attack-on-russia/
Maybe, but funds confiscation has already happened a few times, and nations are still falling into the trap. Russia might well recover by pricing oil in rubles as soon as the war is over. the other nations lost a lot of money, in Afghanistan case it will play a large role in the upcoming famine.
Maybe now it will lead to some smarter policies on Russia’s part, but their leadership already failed horrendously by keeping reserves where they could be confiscated. That was an enormous miscalculation. All of those reserves could have been used to build up industry, infrastructure, education and more within Russia. Instead, all those years of saving amount to nothing and on top of that, Russia’s economic development will be rolled back a decade or perhaps even two.
As someone who would like to see the Russian people do well, I think Putin should go. He has demonstrated gross incompetence here. He was a steady hand in the 2000’s when they needed it, but he clearly has no idea how to steer Russia’s economic and technological development.
Nah… he’s gonna launch the nukes… Go Putin Go.
What reserves are those, and who is going to steal them?
Russia had something like 400 billion dollars in foreign currency reserves held at hostile foreign central banks that have now been frozen. If those central banks didn’t freeze Russia’s accounts, Russia could exchange those reserves to buy and thus support the ruble. Or, it could have spent those reserves over the last decade rather than building up those savings in foreign central banks, as I stated in my original comment.
OK, I thought that you meant fossil fuel reserves.
Who thought that USA would undermine the dollar as a reserve currency. Likely Putin will now rethink that.
Sorry, I had just woken up from a nap with the headphones on. LOL
You assume the USA is run by patriotic Americans. Instead, it’s a foreign-occupied government.
The approx $500 B worth of stocks, bonds, foreign currency etc Russia stored in Western banks in lieu of payment for oil and gas already delivered. When Russia wanted to buy something from the West, they converted the financial assets back into cash.
>>and who is going to steal them?
They are already stolen.
Right, Putin will likely have to react to that at some point.
Probably selling hydrocarbons in rubles is already baked in the cake now. after the war.
I am not sure about roubles, but agree, it ain’t gonna be US dollars.
> The end of the age of globalisation
How Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could hasten the demise of the US-led economic order.
…. It is also worth noting that today’s crisis could precipitate the end of the dollar as the world currency. Ray Dalio, who runs the largest hedge fund in the world, explained in his recent widely praised book, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order, that functioning as the global reserve currency is one of the greatest powers a dominant country can have. It gives enormous borrowing and buying capacity to the hegemon, and ultimately underpins its geopolitical power.
The history of the reserve-currency role of the US dollar, as with Britain’s pound before, also illustrates that this is one of the assets that a declining hegemon is slowest to lose. This is because so many countries and businesses are using the dollar for cross-border activities it becomes enmeshed within international economic operations, and becomes hard to disentangle. Hence, for all America’s other troubles, not least becoming the world’s biggest debtor nation, the dollar in 2019 still made up just over half of global central-bank reserves by currency. The Euro, in second place, made up only 20 per cent, and the Chinese Renminbi just two per cent.
However, this hegemonic asset can turn into a source of instability. Precisely because the dollar plays a hugely disproportionate role as world money relative to the size of the US economy, it is likely that other countries might see so many dollar holdings as a liability and diversify away into other currencies and hard assets like gold.
Ironically, measures taken by the US government to weaponise the dollar to try to exert its authority could backfire. Sanctioning other countries from using the dollar for international payments, including Iran and now Russia, sends a warning to other countries. Who might be next, and whose dollar assets might be frozen by Washington decree?
The danger for the US is that the more it weaponises the dollar and uses it to impose financial sanctions on others and to control financial and payment flows, the more that other countries, not just adversaries, become less keen to retain it. The combined risk of arbitrary asset freezes and currency devaluation could discourage holding dollars, thereby catalysing the dollar’s decline as the global reserve currency.
Meanwhile countries targeted directly by the US, including Russia and China, have already been encouraged to devise alternative national and regional payments systems. This is hastening the movement to regionalisation. Note, too, the efforts of the Chinese state to create a credible central-bank digital currency ahead of others. This would both make China less susceptible to American financial sanctions and also offer an alternative for other countries who want to wean themselves off dollar dependency. The West’s recent measures to clamp down on Russia’s use of its central-bank reserves, while potentially very disruptive to Moscow, will eventually motivate other nations to become more serious about moving towards a post-dollar financial world. If and when that happens, it would represent a significant step towards a post-American world order.
Conclusion
It is likely that today’s bloody war will reinforce the longer-term shifts in international economic relations that have been underway for more than a decade, and were already amplified by the responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. Post-pandemic, the old crutches of American world leadership and of the globalist institutions were already looking increasingly worn out. However the Russian invasion unfolds, this erosion of the American world order is likely to continue. An even more dangerous geopolitical interregnum is therefore now on the cards. This heralds what could be a protracted period when the world is neither fully at war nor fully at peace, and where, in place of genuine cooperation and collaboration, conflict and confrontation become the norm.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/03/07/the-end-of-the-age-of-globalisation/
This is sort of the way it works, I am afraid.
Shall we start a pool when will WTI be below $60? I pick August 5th, 2022.
20+ % overall inflation this year is my guess.
and maybe for multiple years.
so oil may never go below 60 in those inflated dollars.
but I like your boldness.
remind us in August, since bAU and OFW should still be up and running.
It’s possible. It did go negative at one point in recent history. I’m hoping to refill my heating oil tank again for <$2 a gallon like I did last year and I'm still burning that cheap oil. Maybe everything will collapse faster than expected and there will be no oil available for purchase. Feels like things are speeding up. I notice all these price increases and problems are coinciding with the end of covid restrictions. Work says return to the office, no more restrictions, everyone is getting back to full throttle normal. Something big is on the way but what could it be? Sometime next week according to Mr Pool and I looked around and all I found was Russia is disconnecting from the Internet the 11th and the US VP traveling in Poland around that same time. Need something to curtail energy usage and an emergency to release more stimulus. Things are humming along nicely at work, lots of orders, big price increases, still have a backlog, very busy, lots of hiring. I was even offered overtime. Things are good in the IC core. It's BUA to the max.
The current reality on the Slovak-Ukrainian border
Shell Limits Some Heating Oil Sales In Germany As Shortages Develop
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/shell-limits-some-heating-oil-sales-germany-shortages-develop
Seriously: EU Nat Gas benchmark TTF earlier traded above EUR 345 per Mwh, which Bloomberg Energy Specialist Javier Blas noted was equal to more than $100 / mm BTU—or more than $600 / bbl of Oil equivalent at the panic peak
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-stuff-beginning-break
When do we get food riots – in western countries
And so … it is all about Iraqi-fying Russia… but Putin prefers We Burn You Burn… 500 sub-based nukes…
Say hello to Arm- A Geddon.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/white-house-mulls-biden-visit-saudi-arabia-plea-more-oil
When you have an aged society like Russia, falling Ruble and a lot of immigrant workers to keep Russia operating, the mayham comes sooner than thought.
Before the pandemic:
News 24h – Central Asian migrant workers choose Turkey over Russia – analysis
‘Everything is going to hell’: Western sanctions cause economic chaos in Russia • FRANCE 24
Nickel going vertical
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNQ-rwBXwAwQ5jW?format=jpg&name=medium
Looks like a problem.
Collect nickels, downside risk stopped at $.05. Quick search shows current value a bit under $.1, what’s not to like? Simple double your money trade, literally turn $1 of paper into whatever you like. Gold? well, close to protection of no loss until gold loses 50% of current value.
Dennis L.
Huh? You know that he is talking about nickel the metal not the coin… used heavily in battery production
If a nickel coin that you can “buy” for five cents’ exchange value is intrinsically worth ten cents then one has doubled one’s “money”, as it were. However, US “nickel” coins are currently only 25% nickel, and 75% copper.
Yea i thought that was a good idea until i moved. No way was i going to move 500lb of nickels. Down to the bank. Oh we cant take them in the sleeves they have to be loose for the machine. Two hours later of cutting sleeves open…
No Happy Ending (page 305 of Chris Clugston’s ‘Blip’)
“As a species, we have unwittingly and inadvertently become enmeshed in a self-inflicted, inescapable, and self-terminating predicament, in which we are doomed if we persist in our unsustainable NNR [non-renewable natural resources] utilization behavior, and doomed if we do not. For Homo sapiens, there can be no happy ending.”
“… pursuing “business as usual” (BAU) – is a course of action that will certainly doom our species to collapse. Likewise, attempting to “scale back” our industrial way of life by stabilizing or reducing our NNR utilization – through conservation, recycling, substitution, waste mitigation, economic growth mitigation, population control, “resource decoupling”, “circularity”, or similar courses of action – will at best slightly delay the inevitable. However, a stay of execution is not the same as a pardon – and Nature does not grant pardons.”
“For Homo sapiens, as with all other Earth species, sustainability is not optional. Industrial humanity will transition to a sustainable lifestyle paradigm – a pre-industrial way of life within which a drastically reduced human population will experience subsistence level material living standards enabled exclusively by RNRs [renewable natural resources].”
After discussing three mutually-exclusive options – each an all-or-nothing course of action, which must be pursued by our species as a whole, Clugston writes: “No one will choose to transition instantaneously and face nearly certain death, …. And no one will choose to transition gradually, and essentially opt for an ‘accelerated squeeze’, unless all choose to do so.” And thus: “In actuality, we have already made our choice – implicitly. The determining factor was our anthropocentric perspective, which is strongly influenced by our optimism bias.”
“We tend to understate our future NNR requirements, thereby making them appear less daunting and more attainable. As an example, the USGS conducted an analysis at the turn of the millennium that estimated increases in our global mineral (non-fossil-fuel NNR) requirements between the years 2000 and 2050.”
“While the USGS correctly anticipated that global humanity’s future NNR requirements would increase significantly, “…mineral consumption is growing faster than population as more consumers enter the market for mineral and as the global standard of living increases.” (USGS)”
“They vastly underestimated global humanity’s future NNR requirements, …”
“And they thereby vastly overestimated Earth’s capacity to address our future requirements, …”
Here’s where Clugston really knocks it out of the park with statistical analysis in easy to understand charts. I’ll post a few of those later. This is all in the last chapter of ‘Blip’ – Industrialism Collapses, which he opens with a quote from Catton – “The ‘developed’ nations have been widely regarded as previews of the future condition of the ‘underdeveloped’ countries. It would have been more accurate to reverse the picture…”
I question whether this is true:
” Industrial humanity will transition to a sustainable lifestyle paradigm – a pre-industrial way of life within which a drastically reduced human population will experience subsistence level material living standards enabled exclusively by RNRs [renewable natural resources].”
The catch is that humans inevitably use renewable resource at a more rapid rate than they actually renew. Even back in the hunter-gatherer days, humans would burn down whole forests so as to get at the prey they wanted, or to make a more open plain that would have more of the foodstuff they wanted.
A major issue is that humans seems to need at least some cooked food in their mix of food, to get enough calories from their diet. Also, having at least some metals in available for things such as knives and shovel blades is very helpful. Both of these issues contribute to the very longstanding problem of humans always living in a pattern of overshoot and collapse. Nothing is going to change this. This is the way humans act as dissipative structures.
Gail, I agree left to their own devices humans will be lazy and wasteful. This is why an owner is needed. The king who does not want his/she property degraded by wasteful behavior. With a sheriff to backup his property “rights”/”iron fist”.
Right now the rich think their shares of Facebook is wealth. When collapse comes they will come to see land and water and the “right”/”power” of ownership is wealth.
Damn kings always go to war and want a different woman.
“A Lion in Winter”: and “A Man for All Seasons.” come to mind, make a nice evening’s watching, cheap on Amazon to rent.
One wonders what Facebook is worth. Certain countries flip a switch and there goes the audience.
Dennis L.
That excellent quote from ‘A Lion in Winter’, spoken by the queen Eleanor:
‘Bodies rot in the fields and ditches, because we are rotten!’
ED – The last 12 thousand years says you are wrong.
https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374157357/thedawnofeverything
But keep on repeating the lies and maybe your wish will come true.
Ha ha! “Jewish Communists Explain It All For You!”
Summary: you will own nothing and you will be happy.
It sounds OK… so long as I get to be the king.
eddy is already emperor
pity about the lack of clothes tho
must be chilly
Some societies experienced over-population or over-consumption related collapses while others did not. The former, as opposed to the latter, tend to be quite far advanced into agriculture.
Clugston actually thinks it’s very likely that there will be zero survivors as we wage nuclear, biological and chemical warfare and frantically destroy the remaining renewable resources. Unlike other species that go into extreme overshoot, we with our large brains will not go quietly he says.
If a large brain goes noisily without ears to hear it, does it make a sound? 😉
Seemed like that quote was his optimist-version of events. Others posited extinction.
Woodchuck, do you have any links to more recent stuff of his? Thanks.
I dont, but Gail says he used to write for the oil drum. So someone must have his contact info. I think Gail should contact him and invite him to come on OFW and discuss current events in light of his research. We just found out the price of nickel is skyrocketing for example.
We in fact, as a species, have needed the periodic local and regional collapses in order to continue to exist: quite a paradox!
good points on RNR’s. Maybe it will be very small numbers that nature allows to practice their dissipative ways?
But always, overshoot and collapse.
All organisms have “dissipative ways”.
It’s called being alive.
Nature doesn’t “allow” or “disallow”.
It’s all Nature.
Dinosaurs grew and collapsed. Honeybee colonies grow and collapse. This isn’t a process that can be remedied: it’s baked into the cake of life… that life organizes to take advantage of energy and resource gradients and then collapses when those gradients have been exhausted. Rinse and repeat.
It isn’t as complicated as we would like to make it, I don’t think.
Spent Fuel Ponds = Extinction
…and to just make it clear…the Fukushima crop circle had 1.13 printed into it in numbers…
It’s easy to analyse these things afterwards…but much harder before the event
The date of the Fukushima accident was March 11, 2011.
Mr Pool has the number 113 attached to him…which in ASCI code is Q…like in Q(anon)…the Q often appears in crop circles
There’s a crop circle that warned about the Fukushima nuclear meltdown six months ahead. The meltdown happened on 1.13
I can’t explain it
I don’t believe in time travel… clairvoyance is a strange phenomenon
Didn’t Fukushima happen on March 11, 2011? What does 1.13 mean?
the tsunami was on 3/11, but then it took a couple of days to evaporate those spent fuel pools.
11/3 in Euro dating
Good point!
Mr Pool told everyone about the coming pandemic and lockdowns two months ahead
He told about the manipulation of bitcoin higher before it rose 500%
He warned about earthquakes of New Zealand 6 days ahead
He told about the Russian Central Bank freeze and Russian banks being cut of from SWIFT one ago
I have no idea who he is
Someone/something is controling the events we live through and manipulating our lives
Some people seem to have foreknowledge of what is ahead, as well, even if they aren’t the manipulators. Mr. Poole might be one of these people.
Mr Pool might have made those predictions or maybe he didn’t. It’s difficult to tell because they’re always so vague and cryptic to the point almost anything could happen to make his predictions look valid in hindsight. I still enjoy the prediction as much as I enjoy calling Miss Cloe the telephone psychic to find out what the future holds. Very exciting getting a glimpse into the future especially when it might be something big.
Nostradamus really nailed this approach. Be prolific, be vague, and keep the numbers small so that they fit easily.
A new Nostradamus prophesy was recently discovered inside a well preserved sixteenth century Chinese fortune cookie. The text reads:
The end of the world will surely come.
But concerning the date I’m keeping mum.
Before the end collapse is also due.
But for tonight, baby, it’s BAU!
surely Nostradamus was a distant relative of mine.
Where do you find what “Mr. Pool” says? I have only come across his name in your comments.
I think you can follow him on Twittter:
https://twitter.com/IooP_rM311_7211/status/1498124042703978496
> US accused of hypocrisy for supporting sanctions against Russia but not Israel
Critics compare Israeli military actions of Palestinian territories with Russian invasion of Ukraine
The US and some of its European allies are facing accusations of double standards for supporting sanctions and international war crimes investigations against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine while blocking them over Israeli military actions in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Last month, Amnesty International called for the UN to impose targeted sanctions against Israel after joining other human rights groups in accusing it of breaching international law by practicing a form of apartheid and committing a crime against humanity in its “domination” of the Palestinians.
Palestinian officials and UN special rapporteurs on the occupied territories have also pressed for sanctions over Israeli land seizures in the West Bank, the blockade of Gaza and the large scale killing of Palestinian civilians.
While pressing for action against Russia, however, the US and other governments have resisted similar measures against Israel.
On Tuesday, the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, told the UN human rights council that it must send a “resolute message” to Vladimir Putin to stop an invasion that has destroyed schools, hospitals and residential buildings, and killed hundreds of civilians.
“These are the human rights abuses this council was created to stop. If we cannot come together now, when will we come together?” he said.
In the same speech, Blinken made point of calling ongoing UN human rights council investigations into Israeli actions in the occupied territories “a stain on the council’s credibility” and called for them to be halted. The investigations have found Israel responsible for persistent “violations of the right to life” and other crimes.
Sarah Leah Whitson, the former director of Human Rights Watch’s Middle East division, said there are clear parallels between Russian and Israeli violations of international law, including the committing of war crimes.
“We see that not just the US government but US companies are falling over themselves to sanction and boycott anything that has an association with the Russian government,” she said. “Contrast that with the exact opposite when it comes to sanctioning Israel for its violations of international law to the point where American states are passing laws to punish Americans unless they promise never to boycott Israel. It’s very clear that the grounds for resisting sanctions on Israel, or even compliance with international law, is purely political.”
Lara Friedman, president of the Foundation for Middle East Peace, contrasted American support for sanctions against Russia with attempts in Congress to outlaw boycotts in the US of Israel or its settlements in the Palestinian territories.
James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, compared the portrayal of Ukrainians throwing petrol bombs as heroic defenders of their territory to Palestinians characterised as terrorists or militants for resisting occupation and land seizures by Israel.
The US is not alone in facing accusations of hypocrisy. The UK and Canada led calls for the international criminal court to investigate Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Last year, the two countries said the ICC should drop an investigation of Israel in part on the grounds that Palestine is not a sovereign country, although it is recognised as a state by the UN.
In Britain, the Labour MP Julie Elliott told parliament that there was a double standard when it comes to standing up for Palestinians.
“The Palestinians are looking to us to speak and act in the same terms. We sanctioned Russia over Crimea, and we are now likely to impose more sanctions, with which I wholeheartedly agree, yet Palestinians ask why we do nothing to end Israel’s occupation,” she said.
Critics have also accused international footballing bodies of contradictory policies.
Uefa fined the Scottish Premier League team Celtic after its fans flew Palestinian flags at international games, saying that they were political symbols. Ukrainian flags have been widely flown at recent matches with the approval of footballing authorities.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/07/us-sanctions-against-russia-but-not-israel
It is hard not to agree. Also, the US seems to have done things elsewhere that are close to as bad as what Russia is doing to Ukraine.
Re what Russia is doing in Ukraine . . .
One of Russia’s stated goals in its police action in Ukraine was to stop the crimes against humanity–in the Donbass—committed by Ukrainian Nazis. For some reason these ongoing crimes, with (I read) ca 14,000 deaths since the 2014 coup, have not excited any empathy or tears in the West. In fact, they are completely ignored, I guess, I favor of freaking out about supposed Russian war crimes.
Mark Crispin Miller contacted Russell Bentley, a Texan now resident in Ukraine, and married to a Ukrainian woman, regarding his info on atrocities in Ukraine.
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/see-if-you-can-stand-it-what-those?s=r (includes link to interview of Bentley by Gerald Calente)
Here is what Russell Bentley wrote back to Miller:
“Mark,
I am sorry I do not have specific links. I am going to do something horrible now and direct you to a site that I am pretty sure has them. I was sent them and had to watch them as part of my job to tell the truth. You don’t really have to watch them, and if you do, you will not share them. There is one of AZOV nazis nailing a prisoner to a cross, dousing him with gasoline, standing the cross up and then setting him on fire. It does not show the entire ordeal of him burning to death, but more than enough to know for sure it is not fake. There is one of them bringing a semi-conscious prisoner to a grave , throwing him and burying him alive. Again, it is not fake, it is one continuous take, till the hole is completely filled, and they tamp it down and plant a sign that says “SEPAR”, “separatist”. There is another one of a man in a DPR uniform from 2014 or 15, standing next to a pregnant woman with ropes around their necks. The ropes go over a cross beam suspended between two trees, and tied to the back of a car. The car slowly drives forward, the bodies are lifted, and strangled to death. You really want to see that?
Understand, watching these will scar your soul, it will change your life and your view of the world, permanently. It did mine, but I had to watch. I always hated those motherfuckers who liked to watch those old “Faces of Death” videos. You are a fool if you want to see it, but if you want, go to Kaotic.com or Chaotic.com. Search for Ukraine war crimes. I have never been on that site, but I have seen their water mark on some of these videos. If you don’t have to, don’t do it. You asked, so there you go. If you go, you will not thank me.
Russell”
Interestingly, I did go to kaotic.com. and it appears that when you look for ukraine war crimes, about 28 pages of videos come up, starting from most recent ones. Most are unrelated. But there is a gap, and videos go straight from date 2016 to date 2013. someone took care of purging them. I did see some of those videos in 2014, at saker and fortruss, so Russell is right.
It is a general problem with unregulated militias, who also possess a very nihilist worldview. Let us remember that Ukrainian identity is born during WWII, when Ukrainians get their revenge for the Holomodor, and because the CHEKA was 90% Jews, they start wiping out whole Jew villages. somehow they also killed a lot of Poles.
Today, lots of crimes against civilians, death squads, murders and mass rapes.The azov batallion or pravy sektor are, basically, Daesh. Just two days ago news came in one of my telegram channels here (heavily orthodox channel), that a priest in Donetsk was caught by a death squad, crucified and burned alive. One of the channel participants was the in-law of the deceased. Difficult to pass judgement in absolute terms, given all the historical suffering, but the world is better off without these people. They can not possibly contribute anything to civilization.
Hi, drb,
It is important to push back on the “Russian war crimes” meme. Evidence? Oh, the USA MSM.
Meanwhile regular Ukraine military have been shelling the Donbass and paramilitaries have been committing atrocities on specific victims in a most gross fashion.
This started with the Bandera Brigade dluring the war. Gruesome documentary video here:
https://odysee.com/@TheFreedomCycle:0/the-truth-and-history-behind-present:7
Will anyone here take the trouble to inform themselves via alternative news outlets and maybe even **listent to what actual Russians say** before getting entrained in the western Russian war crimes narrative (and other lies and obvious propaganda)?
At the same time the same people observe (so they think) that Russia’s slow advance means the military campaign is failing. Um, no. The slow advance is mainly explained by Russia’s war aim to demilitarize, destroy military installations and materiel (not civilian infrastructure), denazify and neutralize.
NOT to destroy the joint, a la the USA/NATO in Iraq/Libya/Syria/Afghanistan/Serbia.
I vote to nuke Kiev.
This is why we need the CEP… see what monstrous shit humans will do to each other — and we are not even into a collapse situation ….
You do not want to be alive – when BAU collapses
Russia is doing nothing wrong, they are the good side in this conflict. Putin is the superhero that the world needs, but the world doesn’t deserve him. Only Russia and China can stop the demonic forces to take over all of the world with their lgbt armies and perverted ideologies of feminism and anti-white racism. If Russia were to fall, the world is doomed to become a place of slavery. It is not impossible that in a few decades it will be illegal to be heterosexual or for all white men to be rounded up.
I can’t believe that it is quite as bad as you say, ” It is not impossible that in a few decades it will be illegal to be heterosexual or for all white men to be rounded up.”
That might be hyperbole, but globally whites are a racial minority. It’s pretty clear that white men really don’t run anything anymore, even in the West, but are currently mostly front men for foreign machers.
Gail hasn’t been keeping up with WorldStar HipHop, either. 😉
Lurking violence, cultism, fascism will explode if we can’t get every small jurisdiction properly governed.
Americans are supposedly leaving to defend Ukraine’s borders. If thousands of Americans joined up to defend America’s borders, they’d be arrested for domestic terrorism.
Haha — let’s take up a collection to buy them air tickets!!!!
i’M (WILDLY) DREAMING THat they can join up to defend a village, neighborhood or small town. Anything bigger is seriously delusional.
It certainly seems absurd now, but many things previously absurd have already happened and became normalized. If I remember correctly only 5 decades ago, for example, homosexuality was still considered (as it should be) a deviation from normality in the DSM.
50 years ago, there was no such thing as rape within a marriage
do you want to go back to that normality too?
In the late 1800s, in UK, the age of consent for girls was raised from 12 to 16
perhaps you see that as normality as well.
times move on
Obama opposed gay marriage. (ha!)
i assume you jest
if not–you have stolen eddy’s book:
Logic for Dummies.
Give it back–he needs it
All these noble business people boycotting Russian goods?
What a joke.
Where have they been for the last ‘American Century’ of US exceptionslism.
Agent orange, spent uranium, cluster bombs, political assassinations home and abroad,colour revolutions, gulf of Tonkin, Hiroshima, Ngagasaki, Marshall Islands, Guantamano Bay, Oliver North, etc, etc, etc?
Oh of course, that is different cos its US. Its what Empires do.It will be repeated by the next of course.
Moronic but so virtual signalling.
I know, LC. The last two years have been very eye opening for people like those who read OFW. The doublethink capacity of the masses, including my own family, is to a level that is below human. We will now watch many people we knew, with whom we spent childhood or college years, die. But I reluctantly concluded that to be human you have to have some intellectual curiosity, and be able to ask yourself hard questions.
In part this is due to their own experience. They grew up during the 70s and 80s, played by the rules, and got themselves a nice career, family, and economic security. They think the world is going to be like that forever and ever, and can not imagine anything different. In part it is due to malnutrition. These people have smaller, and in adulthood, faster shrinking brains than our meat-eating ancestors. In part it is due to massive propaganda.
I should note that out of the belly of the beast comes some great people; the thinkers, writers, commentators, music, books and of course blogs – OFW being a gem amongst them all.
Methinks the luxury afforded to its residents to engage in such musings may not be much longer lasting, but its been a great ride out here in the empire’s periphery.
The religion of progress may be about to meet its maker.
Don’t expect logic from MOREONS…
Look at our resident MOREONS – can’t wait for the next booster shot… believing they will be protected from dying from Covid …. in spite of the fact that they can see that 9 of 10 dying of covid are fully vaxxed in the UK.
Can we just let Joe Biden go? Ugh … except I am not sure what we would get… Fox News is doing a lot of saber ratteling… they want to make Russians the bad guys
Nearly everyone wants to make Russians the bad guys, it seems.
We had no marches in Cambridge against lock-downs, forced closure of ‘inessential’ businesses, vaxx passports, mandates, vaxx deaths and injuries, or child vaccination; but a substantial protest against Sclumberger oil field services based here and a big march in the rain against Putin. ‘Putin out!’, ‘No fly zone now!’ and ‘Real sanctions now!’
WFH, and the fake Pandemic, suited all these prosperous academic Lefties just fine.
These are the new major enemies, at least in some views.
The MIC is fully intent on making Russia the bad guys. That’s how they earn their nearly one trillion dollar budget every year.
Without the MIC we’d still be riding horses. Why you might wonder? The rapacious primate is seeped in fantasies from the myopia of ordinary.
Just imagine showing some of the tech of today to your ancestors, say a couple of centuries back.
If you feel like it is wrong. Well; please hand back your goodie internet connection and all the little convenience and luxuries integrating a microprocessor or two.
It is no other way with hoomans. “We” only move the “needle” under existential threat. Otherwise we are “busy” devising fictive status hierarchies and climbing them. It is the Freudian “thing” with primate psychology.
Let ‘em kids play with the latest tech and mil-ind gear. At least it is more interesting than wokeism.
Shell Starts to Limit Sales of Heating Oil in Germany
(Bloomberg) — Shell Plc is limiting sales of heating oil to some wholesalers in Germany, the latest sign of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing chaos in the European energy market.
The reduction in spot sales by Europe’s largest oil company is aimed at ensuring it can continue to meet contractual obligations after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused massive distortions and shortages in energy markets, Shell told the buyers of heating oil and other fuels in an email seen by Bloomberg. Shell could stop selling at some delivery points, it said.
A Shell spokesman wasn’t immediately able to comment.
On Friday, Shell controversially bought a cargo of Russian crude despite shipping companies and other traders being wary of touching the nation’s barrels following the invasion of Ukraine. Shell said the move was to ensure fuel supplies.
German heating oil is a near-identical product to diesel in Europe, prices of which point to a market that’s running low on inventories. Traders are willing to pay huge premiums to get the fuel this month rather than waiting until April.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/shell-starts-limit-sales-heating-142019036.html
Shortages of heating oil = diesel, especially in Germany.
I wonder whether the hope that this will all blow over by April is justified.
Aluminium pushes past $4,000/t on Ukraine conflict
The three-month aluminium contract set record official highs every day last week, rising to $3,820/t in the official session on 4 March after first setting record highs earlier in February at around $3,340/t.
LME aluminium prices passed $4,000/t for the first time as heavy sanctions took a toll on Russian industry. Even without specific metals sanctions, many former buyers of Russian raw materials have voluntarily stopped such business.
“People aren’t waiting for sanctions. They just refuse to buy Russian material,” one aluminium alloy producer said. “Some simply refuse to handle aluminium from Russia — including us.”
Russia produced around 3.76mn t of aluminium metal last year, almost 6pc of global output. US sanctions against Russian aluminium producer Rusal in 2018 caused aluminium prices to rise by around 30pc in the immediate aftermath, as buyers sought alternative material.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2309017-aluminium-pushes-past-4000t-on-ukraine-conflict#.YiX3-ttv4II.twitter
Without enough aluminum, supply lines of many types will be broken. The world will produce fewer goods and services, in total.
Petrobras to seek government approval for fuel price hikes -sources
HOUSTON, March 7 (Reuters) – Petroleo Brasileiro SA PETR4.SA executives this week will seek government approval to increase wholesale fuel prices at its Brazil refineries, two people close to the discussions told Reuters.
Price increases are a sensitive issue in Brazil because of the nation’s double-digit inflation rate, and because of elections in October in which President Jair Bolsonaro will run for re-election. Bolsonaro said last week he wants Petrobras to accept lower margins rather than raise prices.
Petrobras controls fuel prices in Brazil through its holdings of more than 80% of the nation’s refining capacity. The proposed price increase would narrow the gap with imported fuel but stay under international prices, the people said, declining to be named as the information was private.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/exclusive-petrobras-to-seek-government-approval-for-fuel-price-hikes-sources
Brazil producers likely to need quite high oil prices, as well, especially if the cost of their supplies are rising. Holding sales prices down keeps consumers happy, but ultimately cuts back production.
They will probably increase sugarcane ethanol production.
High seaborne thermal coal prices raise risk of renegotiations, default by buyers
High seaborne thermal coal prices in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have increased the risk of contract default by price-sensitive buyers in Asia as index values have gone up substantially amid tight supply globally, market sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights March 7.
Since contracts are linked to the index and as index values have risen for all the coal grades and origins, sources stared at a possible default by end-users and buyers.
The Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR price has risen by 27.6% since Feb. 23, the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, to $98.3/mt FOB on March 4. The price of 5,900 kcal/kg GAR has jumped 43.6% during the same period, S&P Global data showed.
Sources said some buyers, mostly from “price-sensitive” markets like Vietnam, India and Thailand are not prepared to pay the prevailing rates in the near term as it is commercially unviable for them.
“I think the situation [of default] could arise not because of choice but because of helplessness. Buyers from some of these countries simply cannot afford the current prices, they don’t have the means to do it,” an Indonesia-based trader said.
India and Indonesia-based traders said that such a surge in prices has now taken the market to a risky position, where some buyers may not be willing to honor contracts.
“The prices of power are fixed, or not flexible in relation to the coal market so it becomes unviable for power producers to buy at the current prices. Either they have to shut down production or they try and renegotiate,” an Indonesia-based trader said.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/videos/market-movers-asia/030722-russia-oil-ban-brent-nymex-ukraine-asia-india-japan-lng-coal-china-steel-aluminum-two-sessions-australia-wheat
Buyers of electricity cannot afford electricity made from high-priced coal in many parts of the world.
When Brent oil peaked at the end of June 2008 and collapsed the 1st week of July 2008, volatility went insane.
The velocity of energy prices is far worse than 2008. If we get a similar price correction this will be the highest volatility spike we’ve ever seen.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNOTPa0XMAAtUpm?format=png&name=4096×4096
European Gas Surges 79% as Market Mayhem Drives Prices to Record
In some of the most chaotic trading the market has ever seen, benchmark gas futures leaped 79% to the equivalent of more than $600 a barrel of oil. The surge is likely to lead to large margins calls, which in turn could end up driving futures even higher as companies buy exchange contracts to avoid paying up cash to cover their trades.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/european-gas-soars-record-u-071047604.html
In Europe airline flights are $30 from Italy to Spain!? They will be bankrupt soon … airlines must be supported by central banks? They have to fly to keep their routes… is what I am told. Stupidly
There’s backwardation, and then there’s this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNPJ1HzWUAAv1-M?format=png&name=small
Negative prices?
All data points toward lower oil prices: Yield curve, consumer confidence predicting recession. American consumer tapped out. Housing/food inflation. China doing QE to avoid recession. etc…
Extreme WTI Backwardation
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNP1SzqXsAETcy0?format=png&name=900×900
An interesting discussion on the reasons for the war and how it will end:
Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine – John Mearsheimer, Ray McGovern, Jack Matlock, and Ted Postol
The U.s likes to destabilize oil powers Iraq , Libya?, Venezuela. Russia has been the key to holding Iran in power if they can destabilize Russia them they can bleed them of their oil for some time. I do think however that we are overestimating how much oil Russia really has… yes they have gas but their oil production is on decline
Thank you
John Mearsheimer intervention is really interesting.
First 20 minutes are enlightening
United States can express such a great level of intellect and cultural background with people like him.
I hope this level will prevail.
I don’t want to make you lose any other time saying again how is interesting John Mearsheimer’s intervention, so I just would like to say now that there is only a strange jump in the video around at time 18.06.
Nothing that can change the whole understanding of his fundamental intervention, but it is interesting that he was talking about what the Russians could do if we put them in the corner.
Maybe it is only a technical problem of the video, but I have the impression that he was just talking about the possibility that the Russians could drop a nuclear bomb in Ukraine, like US decided to do so in Japan in order to avoid additional like Iwo Jima bloody battles.
A part from this detail, I hope his intervention will be watched by many people.
At time 50.39 Ray McGovern (another very interesting intervention) shows a speech made by Putin to journalists about Tomahawk missiles.
Listening to what he says (assuming that the translation is correct, but I trust it) nobody can say that he is a crazy guy.
He can be ferocious, he can be bad, he can be many things, but he is not crazy.
On the contrary he could be the typical enemy (in case he is so) to respect.
Having said that, I hope Western Countries will change strategy soon over Ukraine.
Because expecially here in Europe we are running big risks.
500 sub-based nukes… into key cities… or just nuke China … see Korowicz for the consequences
Not even that is needed.
Just hand carry a few of these portable ones and hide them away in various major cities. Plug them into the grid and let them listen to long wave command and control signals over the ether. If the grid is out for a prolonged period of time, they’re of no use anyway.
The nukes and divers can fit through the torpedo tubes of subs. It is virtually impossible to protect a complete coast line.
It’s how I would do it.
Italian headline:
Price of flour rises up to 50%: risk of closure for bakeries
Rising costs of butter, eggs, flour impact local bakeries
Nebraska businesses report seeing a 40 percent increase in price of some ingredients
https://www.ketv.com/article/rising-costs-of-butter-eggs-flour-impact-local-bakeries/39216128
(Bloomberg) — The world’s top wheat importer is seeing prices rise for some unsubsidized bread, as Egyptian bakers blame increasing input costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A pack of five flat-bread loaves can now sell for about 7.5 pounds ($0.48) in the greater Cairo area, up from 5 pounds a week ago, according to Khaled Sabri, a member of the bakeries division at Egypt’s chamber of commerce.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/ukraine-war-spurs-some-bread-price-rises-in-top-wheat-importer-1.1733518
Even high prices of bread will reduce “demand.” If people can’t afford bread, they will buy less, or none at all.
Nowhere Left to Hide by JHK
https://kunstler.com/clusterfuck-nation/nowhere-left-to-hide/
“Time, they say, is nature’s way of making sure that everything doesn’t happen at once. If that’s so, then maybe time has stopped because all of a sudden everything seems to be happening at once. Three things, actually: 1) a Russian military operation in Ukraine that a lot of people in America want to turn into World War Three; 2) an epic crack-up of the world financial system; and 3) the breakdown of the fishy Covid-19 affair and especially the story behind its holy avatar: the mRNA vaccine.
In a sane society, that might be enough to trip the institutional reality-test apparatus, but we are not a sane society these days, so we plunge ever-deeper into a hurly-burly of wrongful endeavor vectoring toward self-destruction. The immediate problem is a nation (us) that is powerfully bamboozled, led by a figurehead nobody believes in, backed by a hidden coterie of actors who appear to hate our country enough to try to sink it.”
Part of the COVID portion of Kunstler’s post:
European prices for gas
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNPtMpXXoAAduFq?format=jpg&name=large
Makes for interesting times!
European banks hit again this morning. Soc Gen -6%, Deutsche -5%, ING -6.7%, Credit Agricole -5.6%. EUR itself tumbling, now $1.0833.
CDS moves on Banks
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FNP0kG8VcAAl4A8?format=png&name=medium
Lots of banks with problems.
Russia is talking our language. Scant details but likely he means that the fossil fuel situation is liable to take down everyone (certainly Europe) if the West keeps this conflict going.
> Sending weapons to Ukraine will lead to ‘global collapse’ – Ifx cites Russian foreign ministry
March 7 (Reuters) – Sending foreign weapons to Ukraine will lead to a “global collapse,” Interfax news agency cited the Russian foreign ministry as saying on Monday.
Another Russian agency, TASS, quoted foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova as saying that the West sending mercenaries and military equipment to Ukraine would cause a catastrophic development of the situation there.
/ end of article
https://www.reuters.com/world/sending-weapons-ukraine-will-lead-global-collapse-ifx-cites-russian-foreign-2022-03-07/
> German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has cautioned against banning Russian oil and gas as part of Western sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, saying doing so could put Europe’s energy security at risk.
“Europe has deliberately exempted energy supplies from Russia from sanctions,” Mr Scholz said in a statement.
“Supplying Europe with energy for heat generation, mobility, electricity supply and industry cannot be secured in any other way at the moment. It is therefore of essential importance for the provision of public services and the daily lives of our citizens.” (The Guardian)
> The European Countries Most Dependent on Russia for Gas
Countries where Russian gas imports exceed 50% of total gas share:
https://cf.eip.telegraph.co.uk/illustrator-embed/content/d05be68346d54c2f3e9d024a38968e6f5d179dc6/1646214892340.jpg
(Moldova 100%)
(Hungary 95%)
(Slovakia 85%)
(Bulgaria 75%)
(Serbia 69%)
(Finland 67%)
(Germany 65%)
(Poland 54%)
Didn’t a select few of those countries send weapons to the Ukraine?
Whoopsie!
Oh, right, they were going to “bankrupt” Russia. Eh?
Well, good luck with that. They’re gonna need it. Badly!
Doesn’t look good!
We have some seriously incompetent world leaders. They think Russia will allow the West to win? If that were to happen, Putin might just push the “Big Red Button”. He will not allow Russia to lose especially as he saw the former Soviet Union collapse.
I do agree with the global collapse part because this plays into the Great Reset/Build Back Better plans of Klaus Schwab. He is just itching for the Great Reset to get started and he has a lot of incompetent world leaders who have played into his hands.
This whole thing would have organically collapsed on its own. Now his plans are being pushed too fast forward.
Rodster, I don’t think there is any trace of incompetence here, any more than there was incompetence in 9-11 or in the management of the “pandemic.”
By cutting off all avenues of appeasement with Russia (which officially only wants the guarantee of Ukraine out of NATO), the leaders of the Western countries (which of course are not their elected politicians) are acting as if they want war, perfectly knowing that it will cause an acceleration of the ongoing collapse. Therefore I conclude that they want war.
It is not incompetence. It seems more like a mad (MAD?) plan to try to correct in half a dozen years all the exponential curves of imbalance accumulated over the last one hundred years.
> Gas prices have eased back from their morning surge, but are still at painful, unprecedented levels.
Wholesale natural gas for next-day delivery in the UK is now up 10% today at 515p per therm.
That’s still a desperately high price, and over 10 times higher than a year ago, having hit 670p/therm in early trading.
The price of gas for delivery in April is now up 13% at 520p per therm, having hit an astonishing 800p earlier.
*
Boris Johnson signals opposition to US idea for Russian oil import ban
The UK prime minister, Boris Johnson, and the Dutch PM, Mark Rutte, have signalled their opposition to a ban on Russian energy imports, which the US had been pushing for.
At a Downing Street press briefing in London, Johnson said it was not possible to simply close down imports of oil and gas from overnight – which rather chimes with . (The Guardian)
The great thing about FE is that his conclusions are always incorrect. Collapse is still 2 years away. Here in The Core, life is good. Settling into my easy chair to watch a bit of the Ukraine show. BAU tonight baby!!!
Always? We don’t know.
The famous quote: “It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future”.
We just don’t know. This whole thing could unwind today, tomorrow, 1-10 yrs from now. The system was unsustainable and was going to organically collapse, regardless. Now our clueless world leaders who probably never worked a day in their life are putting this whole collapse thingy into 5th gear.
Kurt – It might be good for you but billions are suffering terrably and everything is only getting worse. But hey, crack another one and please yourself.
Bill Roggio:
If you believe Ukraine is winning on the conventional battlefield, you don’t “quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency.”
> U.S. and allies quietly prepare for a Ukrainian government-in-exile and a long insurgency
The Ukrainian military has mounted an unexpectedly fierce defense against invading Russian forces, which have been dogged by logistical problems and flagging morale. But the war is barely two weeks old, and in Washington and European capitals, officials anticipate that the Russian military will reverse its early losses, setting the stage for a long, bloody insurgency.
The ways that Western countries would support a Ukrainian resistance are beginning to take shape. Officials have been reluctant to discuss detailed plans, since they’re premised on a Russian military victory that, however likely, hasn’t happened yet. But as a first step, Ukraine’s allies are planning how to help establish and support a government-in-exile, which could direct guerrilla operations against Russian occupiers, according to several U.S. and European officials.
The weapons the United States has provided to Ukraine’s military, and that continue to flow into the country, would be crucial to the success of an insurgent movement, officials said. The Biden administration has asked Congress, infused with a rare bipartisan spirit in defense of Ukraine, to take up a $10 billion humanitarian aid and military package that includes funding to replenish the stocks of weapons that have already been sent….
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/05/russia-ukraine-insurgency/
Not a bit concerned about what an ‘insurgency’, ie a war run by US-paid and armed mercenaries, would mean for ordinary Ukrainians.
They intend to bleed Putin by wrecking the Ukraine, simply disgusting.
Saudi Crown Prince Gives Biden The Cold Shoulder: “I Do Not Care” What He Thinks
And perhaps even more interesting was his response when asked about the deteriorated relationship with the Biden White House, and whether he thinks Biden “understands” him. “Simply, I do not care,” the crown prince said, and explained that it is up to Biden “to think about the interests of America.”
But now with the Russia-Ukraine war raging, there’s something Biden needs. Starting last month the US began urging Saudi Arabia to boost oil production amid rising energy prices and attempts to find additional supplies for Europe. This was part of what Biden at the time described as his “taking active steps to alleviate the pressure on our own energy markets.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-simply-do-not-care-what-biden-thinks-mbs-cold-shoulders-biden-recent-interview
Saudi has nothing extra to pump
USA has bullied the world for its own interests, and countries have gone along with that for their own interests and because they had no choice, but at the end of the day, if you approach the world like that, then USA will find out in the end that no gives two hoots about the USA and what it wants, apart for the ‘poodle’ that imagines that it still ‘rules the waves’ so long as USA sh/ts on everyone. (Sorry to be so colourful.)
“Saudi Crown Prince Gives Biden The Cold Shoulder: “I Do Not Care” What He Thinks”
Is he capable of thinking anymore?
🤔
It seems that Putin made the occasion of his visit to see the lovely air hostesses, featured above, at the airline training and simulation centre, to make some very important observations on his actions and aims in the Ukraine – full speech is on the ‘Saker’ blog. Worth reading.
Mr Pool
HIDE>3.13
https://mobile.twitter.com/GoPoolie/status/1500731006013247488?cxt=HHwWgMCszcK51dMpAAAA
Always something scary just around the corner to fret about. Have any ‘Mr Pool’ predictions amount to much of anything other than cryptic nothings? I’m predicting BAU all next week and Mr Pool will be wrong again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP/status/1499955439022317573?cxt=HHwWioC5ncrh9NApAAAA
The eurodollar futures curve has inverted signaling a deflationary event. The high energy prices will lead to demand destruction and a deflationary shock.
The rising dollar is signaling that the unregulated eurodollar market is close to default. The Fed has to ease to save the eurodollar market…while high energy prices and high inflation tells the Fed to tighten.
hahahahaha… an entire generation of sub MOREONS….
There is no way you do this unless you intend to kill everyone.
https://thehighwire.com/videos/cdc-lowers-childhood-milestones/
The🤪CDC is just an arm of the Industrial Drug Mafia and Company.
Wearing masks was a😷masks was another ploy to subvert and control the mindset of the population.
Certainty the CDC cares not about the welfare of the children.
That was🤸tipping point when it approved the injection for children and claimed it passed their inspection.
I do not buy FE😀CEP theory at all. I interact with hundreds of vaccinated workers that do strenuous physical work. Non of us are harmed as of yet. Yes, it was mandatory for us to keep our job.
Seems after all the court challenges, the JB Funny Administration overstepped it’s authority along with OSHA.
It also is responsible for the chaos in Europe…way too go Joe
Then you have not understood the CEP – or not read it… and have no clue as to what Bossche is warning of
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/bad-news-from-hong-kong?s=r
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd3ca0a89-09ac-40b0-b0cd-1f01163e1f4a_1373x906.jpeg
15 per million ho hum. If it gets to 15,000 per million then let me know.
Possibilities which are not mutually exclusive:
1.) The covid injections may be less potent than they would have liked, due to manufacturing inconsistencies. I’ve posted this 13-min. “Broken Bioweapon” link before: https://www.bitchute.com/video/8tbOPuO0jyuV/
2.) This plandemic allows TPTB to lay more extensive groundwork for further legal consolidation and control (global hegemony), in preparation for Bill Gates’ “next one” that “WILL get attention this time” (giggle smirk).
“SMARThealth” digital IDs are already being established in many US states. Despite all the new bad vacx press, my state still insists children get jabbed and boostered or wear masks forever. They recommend everyone still wears masks indoors. The pressure really has not let up as much as one would think, and “they” can keep up the coercion for as long as we are alive.
Yes, OSHA backed off, but only so they could re-group and develop PERMANENT C-19 vacx policies. Yes, you read that correctly: “permanent” “Covid-19 policies for mandatory vacxing and testing. They do not intend to let this fade away… at least that is not the signal they are sending.
https://ehsdailyadvisor.blr.com/2022/01/oshas-next-move-agency-at-work-on-permanent-covid-19-safety-standard/
The “Lockstep” document outlined a scenario already in which bad vacxes harmed people and created a backlash (although positing this would happen in Africa). They have already accounted for this, imo, and are unconcerned. Did Bourla sound concerned when he publicly said the vacxes don’t work? No, and not just because he is a psychopath, imo. It’s because they were never supposed to work, and he is just a veterinarian playing the role of a pharma CEO. Walensky doesn’t sound as rattled as one would expect given the enormity of her crimes.. just, “we were hopeful” and “the science is gray”. She even laughs.
https://archive.org/details/the-annotated-rockefeller-foundation-lockstep-2010/page/n1/mode/1up?q=vaccine
I don’t know who did the annotation.
As they say, this is not the beginning of the end, I don’t think. More like the end of the beginning.
Hey norm … let me guess… you are terrified of covid and wear an N95… that would explain everything ..
‘The HighWire’ host Del Bigtree and son, Ever, conducted a test, using an OSHA-approved Carbon-Dioxide meter, which revealed something about masks which YouTube, Facebook, and other video platforms are trying very hard to censor. What do you think?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ypLjmXQoLygi/
I think Bigtree overstepped here, and that masks (while not at all healthful or protective) aren’t as deadly as that test may make them appear.
Steve Kirsch just did a post on this:
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/ask-your-doctor-these-3-questions?s=r
Yale study – 20% cognitive in decline in babies since covid…
Oxygen starvation due to mothers wearing masks during pregnancy is my conclusion
Loads of these CovIDIOT women use N95 cuz they are ‘safest’.. they are useless – except they reduce oxygen supply to the vermin
The check-out woman at the supermarket here who was suffering from wearing one of those Satanic, thick black, masks has now been restored to health.
She had a constant cough and bouts of choking after two years of being masked.
The managers refused her a visor thing, and put pressure on staff to be masked even after it wasn’t mandatory.
Buy a N95 and try using it for a few hours and observe if you get nauseous from it.
Blue collar workers all over the world use these cleaning out dusty and hazardous air borne materials.
Yes, they do work. However, nothing is perfect.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0245688
“N95 respirators offered higher degrees of protection than the other categories of masks tested; however, it should be noted that most N95 respirators failed to fit the participants adequately. Fit check responses had poor correlation with quantitative fit factor scores. KN95, surgical, and fabric masks achieved low fit factor scores, with little protective difference recorded between respiratory protection options. In addition, small facial differences were observed to have a significant impact on quantitative fit.”
‘The HighWire’ host Del Bigtree and son, Ever, conducted a test, using an OSHA-approved Carbon-Dioxide meter, which revealed something about masks which YouTube, Facebook, and other video platforms are trying very hard to censor. What do you think?
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ypLjmXQoLygi/
Hey norm … why don’t you cut your dongle off and take some hormones and take up a winter sport and compete for a medal with the females …
hahahaha
hahaahahahahaha
Uh oh somebody is panicking….ease up big boy
hahaha… wtf is this? https://olympics.com/en/beijing-2022/paralympics
I will cut my pinky finger off and play for the NZ disabled ice hockey team hahahaha what’s the point?