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Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players.
To me, crude oil production is of particular importance because this form of oil is especially useful. With refining, it can operate tractors used to cultivate crops, and it can operate trucks to bring food to stores to sell. With refining, it can be used to make jet fuel. It can also be refined to make fuel for earth moving equipment used in road building. In recent years, it has become common to publish “all liquids” amounts, which include liquid fuels such as ethanol and natural gas liquids. These fuels have uses when energy density is not important, but they do not operate the heavy machinery needed to maintain today’s economy.
In this post, I provide an overview of the crude oil situation as I see it. In my analysis, I utilize crude oil production data by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) that has only recently become available for the full year of 2021. In some exhibits, I also make estimates for the first quarter of 2022 based on preliminary information for this period.
[1] World crude oil production grew marginally in 2021.
Crude oil production for the year 2021 was a disappointment for those hoping that production would rapidly bounce back to at least the 2019 level. World crude oil production increased by 1.4% in 2021, to 77.0 million barrels per day, after a decrease of -7.5% in 2020. If we look back, we can see that the highest year of crude oil production was in 2018, not 2019. Oil production in 2021 was still 5.9 million barrels per day below the 2018 level.
With respect to the overall increase in crude oil production of 1.4% in 2021, OPEC helped bring this average up with an increase of 3.0% in 2021. Russia also helped, with an increase of 2.5%. The United States helped pull the world crude increase down, with a decrease in production of -1.1% in 2021. In Section [5], more information will be provided with respect to crude production for these groupings.
[2] The growth in world crude oil production shows an amazingly steady relationship to the growth in world population since 1991. The major exception is the decrease in consumption that took place in 2020, with the lockdowns that changed consumption patterns.
Figure 2 indicates that, up through 2018, each person in the world consumed an average of around 4.0 barrels of crude oil. This equates to 168 US gallons or 636 liters of crude per year. Much of this crude is used by businesses and governments to produce the basic goods we expect from our economy, including food and roads.
A big downshift occurred in 2020 with the COVID lockdowns. Many people began working from home; international travel was scaled back. The reduction of these uses of oil helped bring down total world usage. Changes such as these explain the big dip in crude oil production (and consumption) in 2020, which continued into 2021.
Even in 2019, the world economy was starting to scale back. Beginning in early 2018, China banned the importation of many types of materials for recycling, and other countries soon followed suit. As a result, less oil was used for transporting materials across the ocean for recycling. (Subsidies for recycling were helping to pay for this oil.) Loss of recycling and other cutbacks (especially in China and India) led to fewer people in these countries being able to afford automobiles and smartphones. Lower production of these devices contributed to the lower use of crude oil.
On Figure 2, there is a slight year-to-year variation in crude oil per capita. The single highest year over the time period shown is 2005, with 2004 not far behind. This was about the time many people think that conventional oil production “peaked,” reducing the availability of inexpensive-to-produce oil.
[3] Crude oil prices dropped dramatically when economies were shut in, beginning in March 2020. Prices began spiking the summer and fall of 2021, as the world economy attempted to open up. This pattern suggests that the real problem is tight crude oil supply when the economy is not artificially constrained by COVID restrictions.
An analysis of price trends suggests that most of the recent spike in crude prices is due to the tightness of the crude oil supply, rather than the Ukraine conflict. The Brent oil price dropped to an average of $14.24 in the week ending April 24, 2020, not long after COVID restrictions were enacted. When the economy started to reopen, in the week ending July 2, 2021, the average price rose to $76.26. By the week ending January 28, 2022, the average price had risen to $90.22.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Brent spot price on February 23, 2022, was $99.29. Brent prices briefly spiked higher, with weekly average prices rising as high as $123.60, for the week ending March 25, 2022. The current Brent oil price is about $107. If we compare the current price to the price the day before the invasion began, the price is only $8 higher. Even compared to the January 28 weekly average of $90.22, the current price is $17 higher.
Saying that the Ukraine invasion is causing the current high price is mostly a convenient excuse, suggesting that the high prices will suddenly disappear if this conflict disappears. The sad truth is that depletion is causing the cost of extraction to rise. Governments of oil exporting countries also need high prices to enable high taxes on exported oil. We are increasingly experiencing a conflict between the prices that the customers can afford and the prices that those doing the extraction require. In my view, most oil exporting countries need a price in excess of $120 per barrel to meet all of their needs, including reinvestment and taxes. Consumers would prefer oil prices under $50 per barrel to keep the price of food and transportation low.
[4] Food prices tend to rise when oil prices are high because products made from crude oil are used in the production and transport of food.
History shows that bad things tend to happen when food prices are very high, including riots by unhappy citizens. This is a major reason that high oil prices tend to lead to conflict.
[5] Quarterly crude oil data suggests that few opportunities exist to raise crude oil production to the level needed for the world economy to operate at the level it operated at in 2018 or 2019.
Figure 5 shows quarterly world crude oil production broken down into four groupings: OPEC, US, Russia, and “All Other.”
Figure 5 shows four very different patterns of past growth in crude oil supply. The All Other grouping is generally trending a bit downward in terms of quantity supplied. If world per capita crude oil production is to stay at least level, the total production of the other three groupings (OPEC, US, and Russia) needs to be rising to offset this decline. In fact, it needs to rise enough that overall crude production growth keeps up with population growth.
Russian Crude Oil Production
The data underlying Figure 5 shows that up until the COVID restrictions, Russia’s crude oil production was increasing by 1.4% per year between early 2005 and early 2020. During the same period, world population was increasing by about 1.2%. Thus, Russia’s oil production has been part of what has helped keep world crude production about level, on a per capita basis. Also, Russia seems to have made up most of its temporary decrease in production related to COVID restrictions by the first quarter of 2022.
US Crude Oil Production
Growth in US crude oil production has been more of a “feast or famine” situation. This can be seen both in Figure 5 above and in Figure 6 below.
US crude oil production spurted up rapidly in the 2011 to 2014 period, when oil prices were high (Figure 3). When oil prices fell in late 2014, US crude production fell for about two years. US oil production began to rise again in late 2016, as oil prices rose again. By early 2019 (when oil prices were again lower), US crude oil growth began to slow down.
In early 2020, COVID lockdowns brought a 15% drop in crude oil production (considering quarterly production), most of which has not been made up. In fact, growth after the lockdowns has been slow, similar to the level of growth during the “growth slowdown” circled in Figure 6. We hear reports that the sweet spots in shale formations have largely been drilled. This leaves mostly high-cost areas left to drill. Also, investors would like better financial discipline. Ramping up greatly, and then cutting back, is no way to operate a successful company.
Thus, while growth in US crude oil production greatly supported world growth in crude oil production in the 2009 to 2018 period, it is impossible to see this pattern continuing. Getting crude oil production back up to the level of 12 million barrels a day where it was before the COVID restrictions would be extremely difficult. Further production growth, to support the growing needs of an expanding world population, is likely impossible.
OPEC Crude Oil Production
Figure 7 shows EIA crude oil production estimates for the total group of countries that are now members of OPEC. It also shows crude oil production excluding the two countries which have recently been subject to sanctions: Iran and Venezuela.
If Iran and Venezuela are removed, OPEC’s long-term production is surprisingly “flat.” The “peak” period of production is the fourth quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2018 was the time when the OPEC countries were producing as much oil as they could, to get their production quotas as high as possible after the planned cutbacks that took effect at the beginning of 2019.
Strangely, EIA data indicates that production didn’t fall very much for this group of countries (OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela), starting in early 2019. The 2019 cutback seems mostly to have affected the production of Iran and Venezuela. It was only later, in the first three quarters of 2020, when COVID restrictions were affecting worldwide production, that crude oil production for OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 4 million barrels per day. Production for this group then began to rise, leaving a shortfall of about 900,000 barrels a day, relative to where it had been before the 2020 lockdowns.
It seems to me that, at most, production for the group of OPEC countries excluding Iran and Venezuela can be ramped up by 900,000 barrels a day, and even this is “iffy.” Iraq is reported to be having difficulty with its production; it needs more investment, or its production will fall. Nigeria is past peak, and it is also having difficulty with its production. The high reported crude oil reserves are meaningless; the question is, “How much can these countries produce when it is required?” It doesn’t look like production can be ramped up very much. Furthermore, we cannot count on continued long-term growth in production from these countries, such as would be needed to keep pace with rising world population.
Figure 8 suggests that, indeed, Iran might be able to raise its production by perhaps 1.0 million barrels a day when sanctions are lifted.
Venezuela looks like a country whose crude oil production was already declining before sanctions were imposed. The cost of production there was likely far higher than the world oil price. Also, Venezuela has oil debts to China that it needs to repay. At most, we might expect that Venezuela’s production could be raised by 300,000 barrels per day in the absence of sanctions.
Putting the three estimates of amounts that crude oil production can perhaps be raised together, we have:
- OPEC ex Iran and Venezuela: 900,000 bpd
- Iran: 1,000,000 bpd
- Venezuela: 300,000 bpd
- Total: 2.2 million bpd
The shortfall of crude oil production in 2021, relative to 2018 production, was 5.9 million bpd, as mentioned in Section [1]. The 2.2 million barrels per day possibly available from this analysis gets us nowhere near the 2018 level. Furthermore, we have nowhere to go to obtain the rising crude oil production required to support the rising population with enough crude oil to supply food and industrial goods at today’s consumption level.
[6] Eliminating, or even reducing, Russia’s crude oil production is certain to have an adverse impact on the world economy.
Figure 9 shows the step-down in crude oil production that occurred in early 2020 and indicates that the world’s oil supply is having difficulty getting back up to pre-COVID levels. If Russia’s crude oil production were to be eliminated, it would make for another step-down of comparable magnitude. Major segments of the economy would likely need to be eliminated.
[7] When there isn’t enough crude oil to go around, the naive belief is that oil prices will rise and either more oil will be found, or substitutes will take its place. In fact, the result may be conflict and elimination of segments of the economy.
Our self-organizing economy will tend to adapt in its own way to inadequate crude oil supplies. Eventually, the economy may collapse completely, but before that happens, changes are likely to happen to try to preserve the “better functioning” parts of the economy. In this way, perhaps parts of the world economy can continue to function for a while longer while getting rid of less productive parts of the economy.
The following is a partial list of ways the economy might adapt:
- Fighting may take place over the remaining crude oil supplies. This may be the underlying reason for the conflict between NATO and Russia, with respect to Ukraine.
- COVID lockdowns indirectly reduce demand for crude oil. A person might wonder whether the current COVID lockdowns in China are partly aimed at preventing oil and other commodity prices from rising to absurd levels.
- Some organizations may disappear from the world economy because of inadequate funding or lack of profitability.
- Additional supply lines are likely to break, allowing fewer types of goods and services to be made.
- The world economy may subdivide into multiple pieces, with each piece able to make a much more limited array of goods and services than is provided today. A shift toward the use of other currencies instead of the US dollar may be part of this shift.
- World population may shrink for multiple reasons, including poor nutrition and epidemics.
- The poor, the elderly and the disabled may be increasingly cut off from government programs, as total goods and services (including total food supplies) fall too low.
- Europe could be cut off from Russian fossil fuel exports, leaving relatively more for the rest of the world.
[8] Countries that are major importers of crude oil and crude oil products would seem to be at significant risk of reduced supply if there is not enough crude oil to go around.
Figure 10 shows a rough estimate of the ratio of crude oil produced to crude oil products consumed in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. On an “All Liquids” basis, the US ratio of crude oil production to consumption would appear higher than shown on Figure 10 because of its unusually high share of natural gas liquids, ethanol, and “refinery gain” in its liquids production. If these types of production are omitted, the US still seems to have a deficit in producing the crude oil it consumes.
Perhaps all that is needed is the general idea. If inadequate crude oil is available, all of the countries at the left of Figure 10 are quite vulnerable because they are very dependent on imports. Russia and the Middle East are prime targets for countries that are desperate for crude oil.
[9] Conclusion: We are likely entering a period of conflict and confusion because of the way the world’s self-organizing economy behaves when there is an inadequate supply of crude oil.
The issue of how important crude oil is to the world economy has been left out of most textbooks for years. Instead, we were taught creative myths covering several topics:
- Huge amounts of fossil fuels will be available in the future
- Climate change is our worst problem
- Wind and solar will save us
- A fast transition to an all-electric economy is possible
- Electric cars are the future
- The economy will grow forever
Now we are running into a serious shortfall of crude oil. We can expect a new set of problems, including far more conflict. Wars are likely. Debt defaults are likely. Political parties will take increasingly divergent positions on how to work around current problems. News media will increasingly tell the narrative that their owners and advertisers want told, with little regard for the real situation.
About all we can do is enjoy each day we have and try not to be disturbed by the increasing conflict around us. It becomes clear that many of us will not live as long or well as we previously expected, regardless of savings or supposed government programs. There is no real way to fix this issue, except perhaps to make religion and the possibility of life after death more of a focus.
Republican Kinzinger Proposes Resolution Allowing US to Send Troops to Ukraine if Russia ‘Uses WMDs’
https://sputniknews.com/20220501/republican-kinzinger-proposes-resolution-allowing-us-to-send-troops-to-ukraine-if-russia-uses-wmds-1095188480.html
Basically, this bill is going to give the U.S. the legal option to intervene militarily, once the long planned FF takes place in Ukraine.
The speed at which the bill should be voted must be in sync with, or earlier then the deployment of the necessary U.S. troops to Eastern Europe, which is almost complete (my own personal estimate is that the U.S. troops along Eastern Europe are atm at around 50,000, and the necessary is about 60,000), along 10,000 UK troops (the U.K. always had around 1/5th of the U.S. troops in a theater of war).
The U.K., once the batch of 8,000 announced 2 days ago is deployed, they will have 10,000 troops in Eastern Europe.
I give it a week or so before everything is in place for the FF, so this bill should also be voted no later then next Thursday.
Which will most likely coincide with EU ban on Russian oil, to “provide” the “reasoning” behind the FF, claiming that Putin and Russia will be hard hit by this oil ban, hence, will use, in “desperation”, a chemical / nuclear attack in Ukraine.
The world seems to get stranger and stranger.
Overpopulation must gone. War between Russia and US inevitable. This republican is doing just fine.
Great video by Sid Smith about Energy.
I would agree that this video is very good.
Sid Smith also has an earlier video which is very good, it is “How to Enjoy the End of the World,” from April 2019.
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Milk shock! Prices go up by a quarter
In BILD, Eckhard Heuser, Managing Director of the Dairy Industry Association, warns of price increases of an average of 25 percent. They are likely to come into force “in the period from May to July”.
This means that a liter of milk could soon hardly be available in the supermarket for less than one euro. Because: At the discounter , the cheapest bag of milk currently costs 80 cents. With a 25 percent surcharge, there would be a one in front of the decimal point!
Heuser warns that the surcharge for fatty products (e.g. cheese) will STILL be higher than 25 percent. Currently, a 250 gram pack of cheese at the discounter costs at least 1.49 euros. With a price increase of 30 percent, the price would rise to 1.94 euros.
https://www-bz–berlin-de.translate.goog/deutschland/milch-schock-preise-schnellen-um-ein-viertel-rauf?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
Dairy products are becoming scarce – expert warns: “Supply chains are under threat
Ukraine war burdens the dairy industry – experts name the biggest problems
For example, the fact that doner kebabs will soon cost more than seven euros could soon be reality from the point of view of an expert. The background to this is supply bottlenecks in Germany, but also energy prices, which, according to EnBW’s latest gas price forecast , will probably not fall again, at least for the time being. One sector that has been particularly badly affected by the consequences of the war in Ukraine is the dairy industry. In addition to supply bottlenecks and energy prices, there are other problems here.
“Feed and fertilizers have risen enormously in price,” says Eckhard Heuser – General Manager of the Milchindustrie-Verband e. V. (MIV). When asked by BW24, he said that some suppliers were not able to deliver. The supply chains as a whole are threatened in Germany. And: “There is a shortage of drivers in Europe, they are all at the front!” The dairy industry is facing enormous challenges.
https://www-echo24-de.translate.goog/leben/verbraucher/lidl-kaufland-milch-produkte-preis-lebensmittel-experte-butter-verbraucher-hamsterkaeufe-bwg-91497661.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp
This story seems to be about Germany. I expect that many other products will have a problem in Germany. I also expect that the rest of Europe will be encountering “supply issues.” A lot of this would have happened, even in the absence of the Ukraine conflict.
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https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/half-frances-nuclear-reactors-are-shutdown-amid-energy-crisis
What the f678 is going on?
They need them in top condition when the russian gas stops flowing.
Could it be that some repairs can not be done because the right type of tube, made with the right type of steel, is not coming? just like europe is not producing pallets anymore because the right type of steel to make pallet nails is also not coming in anymore. no prizes for guessing where is that steel produced.
Nuclear Security standards are very high in France. A very slight default, rfit, wear will stop a plant, and also all the plants that have the same component where the default is detected.
Many plants are now old now. All getting old in the same time. Lack of knowledge and engineers too maybe. It hasn’t been hype the last years to start a career in nuke energy. Maybe it’s changing now since nuke has been officially named a green energy by EU and Macron has announced a big plan to build many new plants (except we are broke and it’s an long term investment).
I agree. I lived in France 9 years and due to my work I was familiar with their security standards. Far more stringent than in the US. That is why I was particularly mentioning pipes that need replacing. But yes, generational changes and concomitant obsolescence are possible contributors.
We’ve only used nuclear power 70 years. We now take it for granted. We haven’t fully realized the life cycle of a nuclear power plant.
I remember doing a term paper on nuclear power for a class I took in Public Economics class which I titled
Uncle Sam’s Baby…
Long long while ago and what I remember is, like the vaccination program, the Federal Government absolved the utilities from liabilities from operating nuclear power to bring it about.; it was more of a public relations ploy of too cheap to meter in which to make the nuclear weapons buildup more acceptable to the people.
You know,it worked
We had a guest who was the head of a company that supplies shipping pallets here in NZ… this was a few months ago and he was telling me there was a severe shortage… how people think that’s surely not a big deal but it is — if you don’t have pallets you can’t easily move stuff around cuz of course the forklifts have to be able to hoist the loads… pallets are essential.
Funny https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWsSKRh9QTw
I think this nail problem is pushed a little higher than necessary.
The problem is probably primarily the Euro pallets, where the nails must be EPAL certified. It’s also problematic for repairing EPAL pallets because a special nail is used for that as well.
After all, EPAL makes a profit on every pallet sold and repaired and seems to stand in the way of a pragmatic and quick solution.
Steel for nails can be obtained from Asia, but you have to reckon with a delivery time of 3 months. There are many small details that simply go wrong at the moment.
For the wood pallets, I am more worried about the wood supply in the next few months, because the embargo against Russia and Belarus and the failure of Ukraine should cause a much lower availability of the appropriate wood dimensions. For Europe, there is theoretically a shortage of over 8 million cubic meters of softwood lumber due to the failure of these three countries.
The Bloomberg article that this one links to says:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-29/half-of-french-nuclear-fleet-is-shut-for-works-squeezing-supply?sref=eWpk04kZ
There have been extended problems in recent years with nuclear in France in recent years. The French government-controlled firm EDF is now in charge of the nuclear industry. According to Wikipedia, “In 2017 EDF took over the majority of the reactor business of Areva, in a French government sponsored restructuring following financial and technical problems at Areva.[7][8][9] In July 2017, France’s Environmental Minister Nicolas Hulot stated that up to 17 of France’s nuclear power reactors – all of which are operated by EDF – could be shuttered by 2025 to meet legislative targets for reducing dependence on the power source. However, in 2019, the French government asked EDF to develop proposals for three new replacement nuclear power stations.”
I remember hearing about a whole series of problems at EDF, in the past. It sounds like somehow the high price of carbon emissions is somehow a problem for EDF. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-will-provide-government-with-first-report-nuclear-problems-march-minsiter-2022-02-08/
I am fairly sure that the company is underfunded. It also seems to have to buy electricity from others when it nuclear is unavailable. The push has been toward “new renewables” under “the grass is greener on the other side of the fence” view (my opinion). Nuclear has not been well maintained recently, I suspect.
Just another species about to go extinct… not a big deal… we’ve driven thousands of others to extinction
Are commodities about to come down? I am thinking that we have to have another depression soon at least in th states! A sheet of plywood is so expensive not to mention everything else! People are not buying new cars etc… I’m not sure if the Fed wants a soft landing or hard.
I wonder the same thing, observation.
Plywood is crazy, electrical outlets are up maybe 75%, corn, beans are out of sight and so is fertilizer, etc.
I see what capital makes in real terms, not much.
The Fed probably has less power than one would think, they can vary the variance, but the trend might not be their friend; everything is priced at the margin and the whole of long term assets is not worth the amount times marginal cost. It can be owned, but not liquidated; that may well be the problem. One would expect costs to decline as well as income, but not at the same time; it is a liquidity problem, matching maturities to future costs/incomes, easier said than done.
I have seen some sharp operators offer to sell their land only if the the purchaser would give them a lease on that land; selling the margin, buy back later? Paying off current liabilities? Gates does not have that problem, long term for him.
Dennis L.
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a single word summary eddy:
Weird
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https://www.gbnews.uk/news/university-midwife-students-taught-to-care-for-men-giving-birth-through-their-penis/283839
Men can give birth through their penis???
A stretch too far???
http://www.gbnews.uk (https://www.gbnews.uk/news/university-midwife-students-taught-to-care-for-men-giving-birth-through-their-penis/283839)
University midwife students taught to care for men giving birth ‘through their penis’
Edinburgh Napier University has advised students they need to be prepared for both men and women giving birth
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35120
haha
I am sure this will end the injections hahaha https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35133
The Most Dangerous Shot Dr. Jackson Has Ever Surveyed: Adverse Reactions Noted in 40% of His Clients
Rheumatologist Dr. Robert Jackson reports that he has seen a less than 5% adverse reaction rate from traditional vaccines in the past, but now with the COVID vaccine, that adverse reaction rate has jumped to 40%, with many of those clients having long-lasting effects, something he says he has not seen before.
Steve Kirsch: “This vaccine makes [the swine flu vaccine] look like rounding error. Order of magnitude? More than more magnitude?”
Dr. Robert Jackson: “Yes.”
@VigilantFox | Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1336ay-the-most-dangerous-shot-dr.-jackson-has-ever-surveyed-adverse-reactions-not.html) | Full Video (https://www.redvoicemedia.com/video/2022/04/the-most-dangerous-vaccine-in-history-rheumatologist-robert-jackson-shares-his-unsettling-findings-video-interview/)
Haha 12yr old dies in class hahaha norm? no harm mike – where you at bitch? https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/35116
If people think this is alarmist, it’s worth noting that even the rabidly pro-vax ZOE survey side-effects reporting app run by Prof Spector (he called IVM ‘horse medicine) in London admitted a 20% adverse reaction rate. Tip of the iceberg, no doubt.
That is a self reporting site, large samples. It seems their government funding has been cut off, coincidence?
Dennis L.
The CDC says the vaccines can’t cause variants because they said they can’t. Wow.
https://www.icandecide.org/ican_press/the-cdcs-response-to-scientific-inquiry-because-we-said-so/
Right so the vaccines cause variants
We have reached the stage that the opposite of what is asserted by public health officials and Big Harma is likely to be true.
‘Impossible’ = Widespread.
‘Mild and transitory’ = Serious and permanent.
‘Doesn’t have the safety profile we would have hoped for’ (Bourla, Jan 10, 2022) = Dangerous and lethal.
Permanent? yes and no. Your immune system is quite capable of erasing its own memory over long periods of time. In practice, the continued irritation and triggering of said system, through dysfunctional western diets, cooperates with Big Pharma intentions of reducing the population through auto-immune diseases.
(About Dennis L.’s example on the Polish woman who neglects her family to tend to UkrainianIn refugees)
In one of the Victorian novels I had read a long time ago, probably some minor novel of Dickens, there was a lady who neglected her family, but cared a lot about some tribe in West Africa. Though she would never really venture to there, she would send money, write letters all day to powerful people to send aid to the tribe, make clothes for the tribe, and all that.
I don’t know how the children might have felt and don’t remember how they ended up, but I don’t think the result was successful.
I consider Srivinasa Ramanujan the beginning of the end of the current civilization, but G.H. Hardy, who brought the Tamil to England, should have told the Brahmin, who was complaining for the lack of vegetarian food when people didn’t have enough to eat, to go back to India and eat as much vegetarian food as he felt like. Since Ramanujan showed no intention to understand the realities of the people, and since the real students were dying in the trench wantonly while he was living in relative comfort at Cambridge, the honorable thing for Hardy was to kick Ramanuan out of England.
The Japanese, as I have described before, didn’t show any concern to people outside of the Yamato race. Since their mythology directed that people not of the Yamato race were not really people but some lesser being, it did not tolerate behaviors now shown by the Ukrainian refugees. The Western prisoners demanded Western food, and were answered by being given seaweed , which the prisoners called ‘black paper’.
Concern for the outgroup is a luxury which will probably disappear as resources dwindle.
Your mistake, of course, is to think that value systems originating in some archipelago can be readily transported to the Heartland of the world. They can not. The heartland has to create different systems (multicultural) perforce. Since it does not matter anymore, in the UK you are welcome to try on the Yamato ethos and see if that is going to work for you. It won’t, of course, because your main problem is energy, not values.
The Yamato race were very kind to Lafcadio Hearn. And they’ve also been amazingly kind to me over the years.
According to this article, they were also uncommonly generous to Saint Francis Xavier, even giving him a Buddhist temple that he could us as a Catholic Church.
https://www.nippon.com/en/features/c02303/
Koizumi Yakumo’s descendants have become Japanese. He was so rootless that he was made a model for Andre Gide’s “The Cellars of Vatican”, whose rootless, picaresque protagonist was named Lafcadio, a strange name whose origin, which means being from the small island of Lefkos in Greece where Hearn was born, must have come from Koizumi.
Xavier’s Catholic ministry was followed by the weeding out of the Catholics. Endo Shusaku, a Catholic, wrote the novel Silence about that in the 20th century.
Heartily concur. They have also, over the years, been very kind to me, and St. Nicholas Orthodox Cathedral also stands tall in Tokyo, not far from Akihabara station. The grounds also include a monastery.
Sci-fi?
You claim that white Britons should see everyone else as an ‘outgroup’ and exclude them. But you also want to get rid of most white Britons, and replace the lower classes with robots. Is that a ‘cunning plan’, or maybe a parody? Whatever.
Not quite on Ramanujan,
He was an incredibly gifted mathematician, Hardy brought him to England to study and consult, He invented much of his math education in his head and from one math book he had at the time.
“…..1913 he began a postal correspondence with the English mathematician G. H. Hardy at the University of Cambridge, England. Recognizing Ramanujan’s work as extraordinary, Hardy arranged for him to travel to Cambridge. In his notes, Hardy commented that Ramanujan had produced groundbreaking new theorems, including some that “defeated me completely; I had never seen anything in the least like them before”,[5] and some recently proven but highly advanced results.”
“In 1919, ill health—now believed to have been hepatic amoebiasis (a complication from episodes of dysentery many years previously)—compelled Ramanujan’s return to India, where he died in 1920 at the age of 32. His last letters to Hardy, written in January 1920, show that he was still continuing to produce new mathematical ideas and theorems. His “lost notebook”, containing discoveries from the last year of his life, caused great excitement among mathematicians when it was rediscovered in 1976.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Srinivasa_Ramanujan#Life_in_England
This was an incredible man, he was a very devout man. Few of us can ever see the beauty and wonder he built in his mind and shared with others. Hardy wanted him to be among the best in the world and to have him share his knowledge more widely.
A brilliant and very short life; but mathematicians do not have a very long productive life, Huberman hypothesizes this is due to the working memory fading with age.
Going back to my original post, Huberman states we form some of the most important neural connections before say five years; how many minds have been lost due to young children being shipped off to day care, with a staff of cheap, uneducated, but caring people who have no idea of what goes on in a child’s head. Mom knows, mom is very, very important. The person referenced in the Ukraine forgot her primary responsibility; odd how that happens, no explanation. Anyone?
Dennis L
Whatever his talents and accomplishment were, he was like the camel’s nose which entered the tent. Now the Camel owns the tent.
Hardy did the ultimate f you to the real scientists who were dying at the trenches. Ramanujan should have been given a one way ticket to Bombay, or, better, ‘to advise the accounting of the British Indian Army in German East Africa(now called Tanzania)’,, where he would have lasted maybe three weeks.
Anyone who says ‘should’ is a liar!
One of the nurses the Pacific Justice Institute represents is Holly Austin, a college nursing professor who holds a doctorate in nursing.
She faced the revocation of her license by the Michigan Department of Licensing and Regulatory Affairs for speaking at a public school board meeting in December of 2021 as a parent against plans to reinstitute a mask mandate at her children’s school.
Dave Peters, a staff attorney with Pacific Justice Institute, told The Epoch Times he was shocked when the state continued its investigation into Austin even after he submitted a 100-page response to the state’s allegations that she was spreading misinformation.
“I remember not long ago that such actions by government authorities or anybody else would have had the entire journalist community howling about suppression and chilling free speech, ” said Peters, who also holds a master’s degree in medicine.
According to documents Peters provided to The Epoch Times, it took the state more than a year to close the investigation against Austin. The state concluded in a March 3, 2022 letter “that following a thorough review and investigation,” it had “determined a violation of the Public Health Code cannot be substantiated.”
More than 200 doctors and nurses found themselves under investigation just for expressing concerns about the COVID vaccine or for not wearing or promoting the wearing of masks. One doctor was reported for shaking hands with someone who wasn’t wearing a mask; another was the subject of a complaint for claiming he had a bad reaction to the COVID vaccine.
In February, Ljubisa Dragovic, Chief Medical Examiner for Oakland County, found himself under investigation by the state for performing autopsies without wearing a mask.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/michigan-investigated-hundreds-doctors-nurses-over-covid-related-complaints
More echoes of Stalin’s Russia: merely to shake hands with a suspected person, or just talk about obvious food shortages was to risk going to the Gulag.
Remember reading one ill mannered comrade made the bad choice of calling him by his birth name Joseph Vissarionovich ,at a meeting and another mispronounced his name as Salt ..he took offense to both and both were sent to the Gulag….
Only two cases I read of him being reasonable..
After the defeat of the Nannies in Stalingrad, he was being drove in the city and a wagon accidentally hit the car, stopping it.
An old woman saw who it was immediately fell to the ground and begged while knee deep in mud. He brought her up saying …please blame the war, blame the Nannies,it’s not your fault … Got in and drove off.
Another discussing an attack insisted a one sided attack, while the commander insisted a two sided attack. This went back and forth for some time until the commander was asked to leave the room…he was told there not to go on further…he returned and still persisted on a two sided attack…unlike AH…Stalin paused and relented ..is it possible that a two sided was necessary!?
He was right and was spared…at least as far as I know!
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> Another Briton fighter – Andrew Hill captured in Ukraine
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Fake? gotta be
https://t.me/c/1588731774/11187
Even doctors are getting f789ed over haha https://t.me/childrenshd/2551
For a visitor to this rural part of eastern Nebraska, the crisp air, blue skies and stretch of seemingly endless farm fields appear as unspoiled landscape …
But the people who live here are immersed in a monumental environmental catastrophe.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/toxic-pesticide-waste-ethanol-plant-nebraska-community/
“An ethanol plant in Mead, Nebraska was found to be the source of massive quantities of toxic, pesticide-laced waste that have spread into waterways providing drinking water for people and wildlife.”
Pretty soon, I bet we’ll even have to test rain water. I haven’t seen any formal analysis of random samples. Sure as hell can’t trust groundwater. I had thought about simply connecting my downspout to a 55 gallon HMWPE food grade rain barrel and passing the collected water through a Berkey filter with the arsenic /heavy metal filter, but I figure that even with a several gallon pre-flush system to let the inital run off pass through before starting collecting, there are so many toxins in the bird poop and bugs on the roof that it probably isn’t much better. When it rains, may have to simply deploy a tarp with a hole in the center and let the water collect and drip into a buried barrel beneath it, and then roll up the tarp until next time.
It’s incredible that in some areas in the US, harvesting rain water is prohibited!
I did a foray into the supermarket earlier — just to see what the oil situation was… shelves maybe 75% bare — primarily the expensive stuff was remaining…. $140 bucks later I had a couple of boxes loaded into the ute (4 ba 4 — full power – diesel — makes a real man out of a boy)
As granny said:
‘You’ve got to eat and drink some carcinogens and nerve agents before you die’.
Dear old granny, so up-to-date!
Corn fields are seen as unspoiled landscapes? Wow. I’ve been to Nebraska and hated it. The entire place was one giant chemical soaked corn field dotted with factories.
Dr. Robert Malone Describes How mRNA Vaccines Suppress the Immune System
“Suppressing the inflammatory response is one way to put it. Another way to phrase that would be to suppress the immune system.”
Full Interview (this is a must watch): https://rumble.com/v1029mv-dr.-robert-malone-synthetic-mrna-cannot-be-removed-from-the-body.html
Clip: https://rumble.com/v131d6s-dr.-robert-malone-describes-how-mrna-vaccines-suppress-the-immune-system.html
Rank the following types of infrastructure in decreasing order of importance: (a) roads, (b) water, (c) sewage, (d) electrical, (e) communications. Explain your reasoning. (5 pts)
I’m game. You didn’t say importance to what.. but if we assume Civilization, then I’d say roads are #1. Then communication (of some kind.. used to be roads=communication). Water #3, sewage #4, and electrical last. This is just for “a” civilization generically speaking.
Roads are useless without oil in modern times, there are simply not enough horses in the world to make roads necessary without oil…
Water needs energy to pump it around, we don’t have nice gravity aqueducts to central points anymore..
Sewerage needs to be pumped, requiring power to work through the system. No electricity, no sewerage removal for modern cities…
Electrical lines, poles, substations, tramsformers etc are useless by themselves unless there is a source of energy to drive the system, and oil to allow the transport of all the equipment into place, plus repair and maintenance. No oil, no electricity in the modern world.
Communication only works providing the electrical network works, so see above, unless you have a lot of carrier pigeons well trained…
None of the infrastructure works at all without oil, so it’s all useless without oil, such is the corner we have painted ourselves into.
We have a huge incredibly complex system that is not, and cannot be fully understood by anyone, such is the level of specialization needed to understand each separate part.
Take any one minor part of our overall system, follow it backwards to what allows it to happen (ie the mining of the raw materials, transport and processes in building it). It quickly becomes obvious it is oil, diesel specifically that drives it.
Cut the availability of oil and everything else quickly starts to fall to pieces. Look at Sri Lanka and Nepal as the most up to date recent examples.
IMHO it will not take long for talk of coal to liquids plants to become mainstream as the only way to combat high oil prices/depletion as the periphery of civilization cracks open. This will buy a few extra years/decades for civilization at best…
That sounds serious. Lucky there are great minds at work that will bring out their solutions the minute they are needed. Don’t worry they’ve got this. sarc / off.
Complexity collapse is predictable only to the extent that things will get simpler. How, where and when is anyone’s guess.
We seem to be past peak coal as well, so I question whether coal to liquids can do much of anything.
I suspect that when plans for coal to liquids become mainstream in a lot of countries, it is acknowledgement of past peak oil. I’m sure it will come with lots of caveats to appease the green movements about being efficient and only temporary etc. It will buy time.
Here in Victoria Australia there is over 430B tonnes of lignite resources, mostly only 10-20 metres below surface with some outcropping, so easy to get to. There were plans for coal to liquids going back a few decades when we last had oil supply concerns. It’s a dirty inefficient process, but doable.
It’s like renewables, given existing FF it’s possible to ramp up a great deal to buy a few more decades of civilization at best, but we burn the planet in the process.
I agree that with peak oil we get peak coal, peak gas and peak production everything else, however building a lot of coal to liquid plants we would delay ‘peak liquids’ and therefore most other things for a period of time.
Some politician will come along and promise prosperity by turning coal to liquids, despite the clim.ate concerns and get voted in, others will follow.
I’ll also make the prediction that as we go past peak oil and realities of constrained energy hit the economy, that environmental concerns will diminish from the majority so we can join FE in burning coal in our Rayburns, and transport it in trucks fueled by CTL until it’s gone….
yes I vote that Australia digs up about 20B tons for the next 20 years.
pollution schmollution.
the world needs this coal.
c’mon Australia, do it for the good of humanity.
I understand that the quality of Australian coal has deteriorated greatly in recent years.
In Western Europe we have to import all the coal from Russia, Colombia or South Africa. When you convert that imported coal to liquids, you get a ridiciously low EROEI.
My bet is on hydrogen generated with solar & wind electricity. Also with a low EROEI, so it will only be available for the elite
Correct. I have mentioned this before. India had big plans for CTL in the noughties (about 2006-2007), when oil prices reached just under $150/barrel. But the plans were soon put to rest due to – no spare coal (in India).
CTL will never become mainstream – CTL plants require huge amounts of money up front, and any coal they use means taking coal away from existing uses, such as, in India and China, power plants. It is not as though those two countries don’t have issues with blackouts already.
There is also the slight drawback that whenever oil prices go high, like now, they invariably end up going very low, boom and bust. CTL oil will be very expensive. You would not be able to produce any oil from CTL during the bust phase, not economically anyway.
I have also been told that CTL is very demanding of water supplies. This gets to be an issue, as well.
1.)Water, Can’t go much more than 3 days without it. Your mind starts getting fuzzy after
24 hours.
2.) Sewage. Without waste disposal, disease lurks right around the corner.
3.) Roads. To allow trade and transport of goods.
4.) Electrical. Can run refrigeration.
5.) Comms. Nice to have, especially if in the middle of a war.
Whatever goes into a septic system can be inoffensively and safely stored in a plastic bucket over years.
Roads are also vital for commuting. But they may require less upkeep if the bulk of commuting is done on bikes, like in pre-1980’s China. If the development scene prioritizes bikes, there is less need for residential roads, and more for tracks.
Septic systems are indeed great in low population densities, but in high rises and densely populated cities, there won’t be enough bags and buckets to keep the sewage and other waste. Even crumbly old dirt roads allow trade as opposed to having to hike through undeveloped land, to the extent your horse has grass and water.
sO ALTHOUGH MY VILLAGE WATER COMPANY IS CONTEMPLATING A TOWN-WIDE SEWAGE SYSTEM, I might try to hold on to our traditional system that gets emptied every five years. WE can do our own thing, and if the emptying system stops working, WE know how to store the sludge indefinitely, Such a mixed approach seems best.
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F6a1d056b-5494-43e8-83ee-2f162c11999a_2733x1713.png
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F157c9f00-0430-4da2-acd3-0f207183ba23_2734x1713.png
https://metatron.substack.com/p/87-increase-in-appointments-to-heart
Lots of evidence that the vaccines lead to heart failure.
Giggle Interlude: This guy is standing on a street corner with what looks like a TV remote control. He is pointing it at people and pressing a button. This other guy comes along and being curious he asks the first guy what he is doing. The first guy replies, “I invented a dumb down machine. I can set a number and reduce a person’s ability to think by pointing it and pressing this button.”
The second guy says, “Come on. Do you expect me to believe that?” So the first guy offers a demonstration. He sets the number to 6, points it at a passerby and presses the button. Then he calls the victim over and asks, “Do you know what time it is?” The victim says, “2022 I think.” Then he walks away.
The second guy says,”Oh come on. He could have been in on it with you and you are trying to scam me.” So the first guy says, “Try it yourself and see.” So the second guy sets the number to 3, aims it and hits the button. The victim stops, then walks over to them and says, “Do I have a flat tire?” They explain to him that he is walking and not driving and he asks if they are sure. After convincing him he walks away.
The second guy says to the first, “Wow I’m impressed. What an invention. What happens if you put the number down as low as it will go?” The first guy says, “Not sure. That would be a 1 and I haven’t tried it yet. Let’s give it a try.”
So they set it to it’s lowest setting, aim it at a guy approaching, and press the button. As the victim walks past them he stops, turns to look at them and says, “Did you get your booster shot yet?”
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/did-you-get-your-covid-19-booster?s=r
87% increase in appointments to heart failure clinic
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust
https://metatron.substack.com/p/87-increase-in-appointments-to-heart
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/did-you-get-your-covid-19-booster?s=r
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fc396e4fb-e8b5-4eb7-a9d4-f351d14d0263_581x760.png
Vaccine-associated Enhanced Disease Not Ruled Out by Pfizer
“Pfizer’s documents show they’ve not ruled out the risk of antibody-dependent enhancement. Vaccine-associated enhanced disease (VAED) is listed as an “Important Potential Risk.” As of February 28, 2021, Pfizer had 138 cases of suspected VAED, 75 of which were severe, resulting in hospitalization, disability, life-threatening consequences or death; a total of 38 cases were lethal and 65 remained unresolved”
https://dailyclout.io/fda-and-pfizer-knew-covid-shot-caused-immunosuppression/
Here’s Why No One Wants to Talk About Sweden
“From a human perspective, it was easy to understand why so many were reluctant to face the numbers from Sweden. For the inevitable conclusion must be that millions of people had been denied their freedom, and millions of children had had their education disrupted,all for nothing.”
https://thepulse.one/2022/04/19/heres-why-no-one-wants-to-talk-about-sweden/
Puzzling Outbreak of Liver Disease in Kids Spreads to EU, US
“Mild hepatitis is very common in children following a range of viral infections, but what is being seen at the moment is quite different,”said Graham Cooke, a professor of infectious diseases at Imperial College London. Some of the children in the U.K. have required specialist care at liver units and a few have needed a liver transplant.”
https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-hepatitis-ireland-liver-disease-a658ecbdfaf4e62fc01637918f17db27
China’s Censors Scrub Viral Shanghai Lockdown Video from Online Platforms
“A viral video showing the impact of the prolonged coronavirus lockdown on Shanghai’s residents has been taken down by China’s internet censors Saturday, triggering an online backlash.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220423-china-s-censors-scrub-viral-shanghai-lockdown-video-from-online-platforms
Vaccinated Up to 15X More Likely than Unvaxxed to Develop Heart Inflammation Requiring Hospitalization
“A team of researchers from health agencies in Finland, Denmark, Sweden,and Norway found that rates of myocarditis and pericarditis, two forms of potentially life-threatening heart inflammation, were higher in those who had received one or two doses of either mRNA-based vaccine – Pfizer’s or Moderna’s.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2791253