The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead

Media outlets tend to make it sound as if all our economic problems are temporary problems, related to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In fact, world crude oil production has been falling behind needed levels since 2019. This problem, by itself, encourages the world economy to contract in unexpected ways, including in the form of economic lockdowns and aggression between countries. This crude oil shortfall seems likely to become greater in the years ahead, pushing the world economy toward conflict and the elimination of inefficient players.

To me, crude oil production is of particular importance because this form of oil is especially useful. With refining, it can operate tractors used to cultivate crops, and it can operate trucks to bring food to stores to sell. With refining, it can be used to make jet fuel. It can also be refined to make fuel for earth moving equipment used in road building. In recent years, it has become common to publish “all liquids” amounts, which include liquid fuels such as ethanol and natural gas liquids. These fuels have uses when energy density is not important, but they do not operate the heavy machinery needed to maintain today’s economy.

In this post, I provide an overview of the crude oil situation as I see it. In my analysis, I utilize crude oil production data by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) that has only recently become available for the full year of 2021. In some exhibits, I also make estimates for the first quarter of 2022 based on preliminary information for this period.

[1] World crude oil production grew marginally in 2021.

Figure 1. World crude oil production based on EIA international data through December 31, 2021.

Crude oil production for the year 2021 was a disappointment for those hoping that production would rapidly bounce back to at least the 2019 level. World crude oil production increased by 1.4% in 2021, to 77.0 million barrels per day, after a decrease of -7.5% in 2020. If we look back, we can see that the highest year of crude oil production was in 2018, not 2019. Oil production in 2021 was still 5.9 million barrels per day below the 2018 level.

With respect to the overall increase in crude oil production of 1.4% in 2021, OPEC helped bring this average up with an increase of 3.0% in 2021. Russia also helped, with an increase of 2.5%. The United States helped pull the world crude increase down, with a decrease in production of -1.1% in 2021. In Section [5], more information will be provided with respect to crude production for these groupings.

[2] The growth in world crude oil production shows an amazingly steady relationship to the growth in world population since 1991. The major exception is the decrease in consumption that took place in 2020, with the lockdowns that changed consumption patterns.

Figure 2. World per capita crude oil production based on EIA international data through December 31, 2021, together with UN 2019 population estimates. The UN’s estimated historical amounts were used through 2020; the “low growth” estimate was used for 2021.

Figure 2 indicates that, up through 2018, each person in the world consumed an average of around 4.0 barrels of crude oil. This equates to 168 US gallons or 636 liters of crude per year. Much of this crude is used by businesses and governments to produce the basic goods we expect from our economy, including food and roads.

A big downshift occurred in 2020 with the COVID lockdowns. Many people began working from home; international travel was scaled back. The reduction of these uses of oil helped bring down total world usage. Changes such as these explain the big dip in crude oil production (and consumption) in 2020, which continued into 2021.

Even in 2019, the world economy was starting to scale back. Beginning in early 2018, China banned the importation of many types of materials for recycling, and other countries soon followed suit. As a result, less oil was used for transporting materials across the ocean for recycling. (Subsidies for recycling were helping to pay for this oil.) Loss of recycling and other cutbacks (especially in China and India) led to fewer people in these countries being able to afford automobiles and smartphones. Lower production of these devices contributed to the lower use of crude oil.

On Figure 2, there is a slight year-to-year variation in crude oil per capita. The single highest year over the time period shown is 2005, with 2004 not far behind. This was about the time many people think that conventional oil production “peaked,” reducing the availability of inexpensive-to-produce oil.

[3] Crude oil prices dropped dramatically when economies were shut in, beginning in March 2020. Prices began spiking the summer and fall of 2021, as the world economy attempted to open up. This pattern suggests that the real problem is tight crude oil supply when the economy is not artificially constrained by COVID restrictions.

Figure 3. Average weekly Brent oil price in chart prepared by EIA, through April 8, 2022. Amounts are not adjusted for inflation.

An analysis of price trends suggests that most of the recent spike in crude prices is due to the tightness of the crude oil supply, rather than the Ukraine conflict. The Brent oil price dropped to an average of $14.24 in the week ending April 24, 2020, not long after COVID restrictions were enacted. When the economy started to reopen, in the week ending July 2, 2021, the average price rose to $76.26. By the week ending January 28, 2022, the average price had risen to $90.22.

Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022. The Brent spot price on February 23, 2022, was $99.29. Brent prices briefly spiked higher, with weekly average prices rising as high as $123.60, for the week ending March 25, 2022. The current Brent oil price is about $107. If we compare the current price to the price the day before the invasion began, the price is only $8 higher. Even compared to the January 28 weekly average of $90.22, the current price is $17 higher.

Saying that the Ukraine invasion is causing the current high price is mostly a convenient excuse, suggesting that the high prices will suddenly disappear if this conflict disappears. The sad truth is that depletion is causing the cost of extraction to rise. Governments of oil exporting countries also need high prices to enable high taxes on exported oil. We are increasingly experiencing a conflict between the prices that the customers can afford and the prices that those doing the extraction require. In my view, most oil exporting countries need a price in excess of $120 per barrel to meet all of their needs, including reinvestment and taxes. Consumers would prefer oil prices under $50 per barrel to keep the price of food and transportation low.

[4] Food prices tend to rise when oil prices are high because products made from crude oil are used in the production and transport of food.

History shows that bad things tend to happen when food prices are very high, including riots by unhappy citizens. This is a major reason that high oil prices tend to lead to conflict.

Figure 4. FAO inflation-adjusted monthly food price index. Source.

[5] Quarterly crude oil data suggests that few opportunities exist to raise crude oil production to the level needed for the world economy to operate at the level it operated at in 2018 or 2019.

Figure 5 shows quarterly world crude oil production broken down into four groupings: OPEC, US, Russia, and “All Other.”

Figure 5. Quarterly crude oil production through first quarter of 2022. Amounts through December 2021 are EIA international estimates. Increase in OPEC first quarter of 2022 production is estimated based on OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022. US crude oil production for first quarter of 2022 estimated based on preliminary EIA indications. Russia and All Other production for first quarter of 2022 are estimated based on recent trends.

Figure 5 shows four very different patterns of past growth in crude oil supply. The All Other grouping is generally trending a bit downward in terms of quantity supplied. If world per capita crude oil production is to stay at least level, the total production of the other three groupings (OPEC, US, and Russia) needs to be rising to offset this decline. In fact, it needs to rise enough that overall crude production growth keeps up with population growth.

Russian Crude Oil Production

The data underlying Figure 5 shows that up until the COVID restrictions, Russia’s crude oil production was increasing by 1.4% per year between early 2005 and early 2020. During the same period, world population was increasing by about 1.2%. Thus, Russia’s oil production has been part of what has helped keep world crude production about level, on a per capita basis. Also, Russia seems to have made up most of its temporary decrease in production related to COVID restrictions by the first quarter of 2022.

US Crude Oil Production

Growth in US crude oil production has been more of a “feast or famine” situation. This can be seen both in Figure 5 above and in Figure 6 below.

Figure 6. US crude oil production based on EIA data. First quarter of 2022 amount is estimated based on EIA weekly and monthly indications.

US crude oil production spurted up rapidly in the 2011 to 2014 period, when oil prices were high (Figure 3). When oil prices fell in late 2014, US crude production fell for about two years. US oil production began to rise again in late 2016, as oil prices rose again. By early 2019 (when oil prices were again lower), US crude oil growth began to slow down.

In early 2020, COVID lockdowns brought a 15% drop in crude oil production (considering quarterly production), most of which has not been made up. In fact, growth after the lockdowns has been slow, similar to the level of growth during the “growth slowdown” circled in Figure 6. We hear reports that the sweet spots in shale formations have largely been drilled. This leaves mostly high-cost areas left to drill. Also, investors would like better financial discipline. Ramping up greatly, and then cutting back, is no way to operate a successful company.

Thus, while growth in US crude oil production greatly supported world growth in crude oil production in the 2009 to 2018 period, it is impossible to see this pattern continuing. Getting crude oil production back up to the level of 12 million barrels a day where it was before the COVID restrictions would be extremely difficult. Further production growth, to support the growing needs of an expanding world population, is likely impossible.

OPEC Crude Oil Production

Figure 7 shows EIA crude oil production estimates for the total group of countries that are now members of OPEC. It also shows crude oil production excluding the two countries which have recently been subject to sanctions: Iran and Venezuela.

Figure 7. OPEC crude oil production to December 31, 2021, based on EIA data. Estimates for first quarter of 2022 based on indications from OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022.

If Iran and Venezuela are removed, OPEC’s long-term production is surprisingly “flat.” The “peak” period of production is the fourth quarter of 2018. The fourth quarter of 2018 was the time when the OPEC countries were producing as much oil as they could, to get their production quotas as high as possible after the planned cutbacks that took effect at the beginning of 2019.

Strangely, EIA data indicates that production didn’t fall very much for this group of countries (OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela), starting in early 2019. The 2019 cutback seems mostly to have affected the production of Iran and Venezuela. It was only later, in the first three quarters of 2020, when COVID restrictions were affecting worldwide production, that crude oil production for OPEC excluding Iran and Venezuela fell by 4 million barrels per day. Production for this group then began to rise, leaving a shortfall of about 900,000 barrels a day, relative to where it had been before the 2020 lockdowns.

It seems to me that, at most, production for the group of OPEC countries excluding Iran and Venezuela can be ramped up by 900,000 barrels a day, and even this is “iffy.” Iraq is reported to be having difficulty with its production; it needs more investment, or its production will fall. Nigeria is past peak, and it is also having difficulty with its production. The high reported crude oil reserves are meaningless; the question is, “How much can these countries produce when it is required?” It doesn’t look like production can be ramped up very much. Furthermore, we cannot count on continued long-term growth in production from these countries, such as would be needed to keep pace with rising world population.

Figure 8. Crude oil production indications for Iran and Venezuela, based on EIA data through December 31, 2021. Change in oil production for first quarter of 2021 is estimated based on OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, April 2022.

Figure 8 suggests that, indeed, Iran might be able to raise its production by perhaps 1.0 million barrels a day when sanctions are lifted.

Venezuela looks like a country whose crude oil production was already declining before sanctions were imposed. The cost of production there was likely far higher than the world oil price. Also, Venezuela has oil debts to China that it needs to repay. At most, we might expect that Venezuela’s production could be raised by 300,000 barrels per day in the absence of sanctions.

Putting the three estimates of amounts that crude oil production can perhaps be raised together, we have:

  • OPEC ex Iran and Venezuela: 900,000 bpd
  • Iran: 1,000,000 bpd
  • Venezuela: 300,000 bpd
  • Total: 2.2 million bpd

The shortfall of crude oil production in 2021, relative to 2018 production, was 5.9 million bpd, as mentioned in Section [1]. The 2.2 million barrels per day possibly available from this analysis gets us nowhere near the 2018 level. Furthermore, we have nowhere to go to obtain the rising crude oil production required to support the rising population with enough crude oil to supply food and industrial goods at today’s consumption level.

[6] Eliminating, or even reducing, Russia’s crude oil production is certain to have an adverse impact on the world economy.

Figure 9 shows the step-down in crude oil production that occurred in early 2020 and indicates that the world’s oil supply is having difficulty getting back up to pre-COVID levels. If Russia’s crude oil production were to be eliminated, it would make for another step-down of comparable magnitude. Major segments of the economy would likely need to be eliminated.

Figure 9. Quarterly crude oil production through first quarter of 2022 divided by world population estimates based on 2019 UN population estimates. Crude oil amounts through December 2021 are EIA estimates. Crude oil production estimates for first quarter 2022 are as described in the caption to Figure 5.

[7] When there isn’t enough crude oil to go around, the naive belief is that oil prices will rise and either more oil will be found, or substitutes will take its place. In fact, the result may be conflict and elimination of segments of the economy.

Our self-organizing economy will tend to adapt in its own way to inadequate crude oil supplies. Eventually, the economy may collapse completely, but before that happens, changes are likely to happen to try to preserve the “better functioning” parts of the economy. In this way, perhaps parts of the world economy can continue to function for a while longer while getting rid of less productive parts of the economy.

The following is a partial list of ways the economy might adapt:

  • Fighting may take place over the remaining crude oil supplies. This may be the underlying reason for the conflict between NATO and Russia, with respect to Ukraine.
  • COVID lockdowns indirectly reduce demand for crude oil. A person might wonder whether the current COVID lockdowns in China are partly aimed at preventing oil and other commodity prices from rising to absurd levels.
  • Some organizations may disappear from the world economy because of inadequate funding or lack of profitability.
  • Additional supply lines are likely to break, allowing fewer types of goods and services to be made.
  • The world economy may subdivide into multiple pieces, with each piece able to make a much more limited array of goods and services than is provided today. A shift toward the use of other currencies instead of the US dollar may be part of this shift.
  • World population may shrink for multiple reasons, including poor nutrition and epidemics.
  • The poor, the elderly and the disabled may be increasingly cut off from government programs, as total goods and services (including total food supplies) fall too low.
  • Europe could be cut off from Russian fossil fuel exports, leaving relatively more for the rest of the world.

[8] Countries that are major importers of crude oil and crude oil products would seem to be at significant risk of reduced supply if there is not enough crude oil to go around.

Figure 10 shows a rough estimate of the ratio of crude oil produced to crude oil products consumed in 2019, the last full year before the pandemic. On an “All Liquids” basis, the US ratio of crude oil production to consumption would appear higher than shown on Figure 10 because of its unusually high share of natural gas liquids, ethanol, and “refinery gain” in its liquids production. If these types of production are omitted, the US still seems to have a deficit in producing the crude oil it consumes.

Figure 10. Rough estimate of ratio of crude oil produce to the quantity of crude oil products consumed, based on “Crude oil production” and “Oil: Regional consumption – by product group” in BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ includes Russia plus the other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States.

Perhaps all that is needed is the general idea. If inadequate crude oil is available, all of the countries at the left of Figure 10 are quite vulnerable because they are very dependent on imports. Russia and the Middle East are prime targets for countries that are desperate for crude oil.

[9] Conclusion: We are likely entering a period of conflict and confusion because of the way the world’s self-organizing economy behaves when there is an inadequate supply of crude oil.

The issue of how important crude oil is to the world economy has been left out of most textbooks for years. Instead, we were taught creative myths covering several topics:

  • Huge amounts of fossil fuels will be available in the future
  • Climate change is our worst problem
  • Wind and solar will save us
  • A fast transition to an all-electric economy is possible
  • Electric cars are the future
  • The economy will grow forever

Now we are running into a serious shortfall of crude oil. We can expect a new set of problems, including far more conflict. Wars are likely. Debt defaults are likely. Political parties will take increasingly divergent positions on how to work around current problems. News media will increasingly tell the narrative that their owners and advertisers want told, with little regard for the real situation.

About all we can do is enjoy each day we have and try not to be disturbed by the increasing conflict around us. It becomes clear that many of us will not live as long or well as we previously expected, regardless of savings or supposed government programs. There is no real way to fix this issue, except perhaps to make religion and the possibility of life after death more of a focus.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,255 Responses to The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead

  1. Fast Eddy says:

    “Every time you get exposed and re-infected to omicron, the non-neutralizing Abs will get boosted and these non-neutralizing Abs are directed to the antigenic site in the N-terminal domain (epitopes) based on the above research and this is exactly what is preventing severe disease…we are putting this under tremendous pressure and not eliminating the virus and the virus will find a way to come around the immune pressure for if you cannot sterilize the virus as in a normal natural pandemic (after the wave begins, those with intact INNATE and natural acquired come into eliminate/sterilize the virus)…there is no way around this, to also induce resistance (overcomes the immune pressure and thus develops resistance) against the non-neutralizing Abs that target this conserved antigenic site within the N terminal domain…mutations can easily overcome this”.

  2. Fast Eddy says:

    If we do not cut the chain of transmission with this vaccine, we cannot get to population level herd immunity; we will never ever get there and the pandemic will never end, 100 years it will continue and Fauci and Bourla know this; if we continue to exert immune pressure on the RBD of the spike and do not sterilize the virus, then there will be selection to overcome the sub-optimal pressure.

    This now is about boosters forever; in time, we fear that the immune pressure from the non-neutralizing Abs will cause selection pressure that will select for the virus ability to transfect deep in the lungs and the lack of severity we see now due to omicron, we will end up having people getting very severely ill from Omicron…the variant will get around the non-neutralizing Abs, thus do not be fooled by the lack of severity at this time…it can get very deadly. The virus is trying to figure this out as we speak.

    Geert VB explains it this way:

    “We were putting immune pressure on essentially the RBD of the spike protein. When the neutralizing capacity of the vaccinal Abs diminishes, then the affinity of the non-neutralizing Abs become stronger and can more strongly bind to their epitope; how it typically works is that the neutralizing Abs bind to spike and there is a conformational change that prevents the non-neutralizing Abs from binding to their epitopes; but if the neutralizing Abs only weakly bind or dont bind to the spike, then there is no conformational change and the non-neutralizing Abs can bind and find their epitopes…researchers show the non-neutralizing Abs focuses on an antigenic site in the N-terminal domain (and not the RBD, a different part of the spike) that is conserved in all variants”

    • Jan says:

      This is not what we are seeing. I am referring to the March/April months. People get a “mild flu” testing positive, allegedly Omicron – weather they are jabbed or not. Jabbed people seem to have stronger infections but without any real dangers. Some people – jabbed or not – dont get any infection, even if they want one!

      The virus seems to get milder. Assumed there is any and if the test tests it…

      The numbers of people getting a first jab or booster is on an alltime low. So they are trying to produce panik stroken news.

      I am very sceptical about the longtime effects of the jabs. At the moment we see the side effects increasing with respect to cardiovascular damage, organ failure, thrombes and nerval damage. It can be explained by assuming a simple mechanism: The cells express the spike protein and are recognized as virus and thus are eliminated and destroyed by the immune system. Autopsies have shown strange leucocytes infiltrations of organ tissue (Arne Burkhard) and desintegrating organ tissue.

      There have been a few kids dying on strange Hepatitis which might be a first effect of a weakened immune system. There are reports about strange growth of cancer. But we dont see any VAIDS or failure of the immune system on a larger scale. Neither on social media nor in the neighbourhood.

      Maybe not yet.

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    The OMICRON variant is infecting vaccinated persons, but it is NOT due to virus but due to the non-neutralizing Abs binding to the spike & not sterilizing/neutralize but enhancing/facilitate infection

    You must look at what is happening now with the mRNA COVID injection taking the non-neutralizing Abs role in facilitating infection in the vaccinated person

    I thought it was infecting them cuz they are MOREONS… well indirectly cuz MOREONS inject experiments into their bodies… hahaha how many now norm?

  4. Calibob says:

    A short clip of one of the vax doomsayers I’ve been following for a while.”To The Lifeboats”
    Talking about the approaching Health Care system collapse:

    His Rumble channel:

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      quite nice, so very doomy.

      the quality and quantity of available healthcare services will decline.

      and the average human lifespan will decline.

      progress and regress are equal realities in the unfolding history of the human species.

      it is what it is.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Excellent! The CovIDIOTS are starting to drop big time!

      And they crawl about in vomit moaning – thank heaven for the booster shots — it could be so much worse…

      Hahahahahaha… how entertaining this is!!!

      I shall enjoy my Revenge/Schadenfrood… oh yes I shall… it’s happening hahaha

    • Fred says:

      It would have collapsed without COVID anyway, as the sickcare model is clearly unaffordable and unsustainable.

      COVID has brought its collapse forward I guess.

      • Hubbs says:

        As I wrote in my memoirs as a sidenote, healthcare as we know it in the US will ultimately cease to exist when the final conflict between insurers and providers occurs. Big healthcare corporations are profitable as long as the government and commercial health insurer gravy train is alive.

        Insurance companies keep paying the providers as long as they ( the insurers) remain profitable.

        BUT, eventually,people will no longer be able to afford the exorbitant premiums for private commercial health insurance, nor will their employers be able to keep providing these costly benefits.

        The people will be sold the false promise of universal health care provided by the government. The government is broke, so neither will the government be able to afford health care as we know it.Once the people realize that this means they will get essentially no treatment in the new system based on rationing will healthcare retrace its origins back to the fee-for-service model. The individual doctor provider will make a comeback, albeit with less complex and costly medical diagnosis and treatement. Administrative bloat will be excised. But the health care executives and hospital administrators will have long since run off with their loot.

        This regression in health care cost and complexity sounds like our energy problem too, doesn’t it?

  5. Rodster says:

    “Welcome To The Greatest Energy Crisis In History – Things Will Only Get Much More Painful From Here“

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Gail has written here of the next recession being one we never bounce back from.
      Suppose your article, Roadster confirms her statement.
      As Investor, Jim Rogers, like to say , “It’s a good time to be OLD…”
      That may mean most of us commenting here on OFW..
      For me that is an arbitrary range of Fifty and up….beyond breeding age.
      Of course, there are exception like actor Alec Baldwin with his wife expecting their 7th child.I believe he’s 64 years old..and she’s 38…
      BAU Baby literally…

  6. Mirror on the wall says:

    Chinese feudal society (which did not have the profit mechanism) was characterised by cyclical population boom and bust. The societal dissipative structure required labour power and more labour power to maintain and to expand itself into new territory; population was reduced through cyclical inter-class power struggles that destabilised the dissipative structure, and through famine and natural disasters. Thus the boom-bust population cycle followed power dynamics of structural maintenance, expansion and internal conflict, as well as natural accidents. So we see that capitalism, and the action of the profit mechanism, is not necessary so that human societies expand and contract according to the operation of power dynamics.

    > A determinant study on population increasing and declining in Chinese feudal society


    The population change in China in feudal times did not follow a continuous curve of growth, instead, it featured steady increases and sharp declines in the population size.

    The following mechanism caused the growth in population. 1st, the traditional farming system stimulated the reproduction of children to meet the needs for labor power, especially male. 2nd, in the feudal society, land and people were important resources for tax collection and for expansion of territory. And the government often followed a pronatal population policy. 3rd, the cultural tradition and social values of the country have been in favor of large families. Carrying on family lineage and improving family status through many children were important social values. Households with 3 or 4 generations living together were a major form of family structure. These were the factors that contributed to high fertility and population growth.

    In terms of causes of reduction of population size, it was principally wars and famine. In the feudal history of China, land ownership was always the key issue in the government policy and regulations and in the change of dynasty. Land was the most important and reliable means of production and form of wealth. Polarization of wealth from ownership of land intensified the conflicts between social classes, which caused instability in economics and in the society. War was a manifestation of social instability. In all the dynasties, incessant wars because of struggles within power structures and rebellion from peasants to fight against oppression resulted in massive killings, devastated the economy, and caused drastic reductions in the population numbers.

    Similar to wars, famine and natural calamities in the imperial dynasties often reversed the population growth trend. In a peasant economy, production was individualized, and the social structure was loose. The minimal means of rural farming families were unable to resist natural disasters. Under severe exploitation, poor farmers were not in a position to maintain the quality of soil or to construct irrigation systems. Sometimes, natural disasters were manmade. For these reasons, the occurrence of natural calamities was especially frequent and devastating. Rapid decreases in population size were often the result of wars and famine, which was the outcome of fundamental social and economic conflicts.

  7. nikoB says:

    For those of you that don’t know his work on covid

    Walter M Chestnut

    His arching thesis is that spike protein causes systemic amyloidosis. Not good for vaxxed and unvaxxed.

    • I am not in the medical field, so I am not familiar with amyloidosis. It doesn’t sound like something a person would want to get.

      • nikoB says:

        Amyloidosis is a group of diseases in which abnormal proteins, known as amyloid fibrils, build up in tissue or organs. In this case the theory speculates that spike protein from both virus or vaccine inducement cause it. It is cumulative. Every exposure will cause disease progression. It could be from a very minor degree to a significant degree. It would depend on the amount of spike and where it is causing damage before it is neutralized. If correct then one does not want any vaccines and no exposure to the virus. Time will tell but it does fit the disease outcomes.

  8. slowly at first says:

    Thus far, we have detected no signs of a space-faring civilization anywhere beyond our solar system. It may very well be that no civilization is ever able to outlast its fossil fuel stage of technological development. Once it consumes its planet’s store of hydrocarbons, it undergoes extinction. We may safely assume that all extraterrestrial life follows a typical trajectory of evolutionary development as has been observed on Earth.

    • JesseJames says:

      It is not necessarily a given that every civilization is “completely dissipative”. Suppose that creatures/beings evolve to tie reproduction to emotive/intellectual cues. Also suppose they birth mini Einstein’s and their culture prioritizes mathematic/scientific understanding.
      Perhaps their culture stresses collaboration in a group and the profit motive is not present.

      I guess I am saying the dissipative societies we have are the only example we have. We are presumptive if we say that all must be identically dissipative.

      • slowly at first says:

        I agree with your point about ‘dissipation’. I suppose there has to be a tendency toward acquisitiveness and voraciousness in those civilizations with the potential to reach our stage of development. Petroleum was the sine qua non of modern science and technology. I think of IC as a thermodynamic heat engine.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        Dissipative structures follow thermodynamic laws whereby they compete for existence by ordering the environment to themselves and so maximising the concentration of energy to their own maintenance and expansion. Humans are dissipative structures, and so are the economic societies on which they depend for their survival.

        Evolution selects those biological traits that contribute, over many thousands of years, to the survival of the species. Humans developed minds capable of science because those mental traits allowed them to order their environment to their economic structures. The biological traits are ordered to the concentration of energy for societal dissipation.

        Reality is energetic and it is structured by the maximum power principle. Politico-moral narratives order humans to maintain the dissipative structures, and they are secondary, not primary, in the order of being. The will to power is the essence of reality, and it is not negotiable by politico-moral flights of fancy. It is just how it is.

        We have the dominant politico-moral narratives that we have today because they allow our economic societies to function to optimise power, and for no other reason, whatever ‘moral’ pretences societies might put on to the contrary. The pretences are themselves strategies to facilitate the concentration of power. They all reinforce the economy in some way or other.

        • I agree. That is why I get to my conclusion that any civilization based on the dissipation of fossil fuels is likely to burn out pretty quickly.

        • Tim Groves says:

          Evolution selects those biological traits that contribute, over many thousands of years, to the survival of the species.

          And yet, 99% [actually, I pulled that statistic out of thin air—nobody knows the true figure] of all the species that ever were are extinct, so IF survival is considered a mark of success, then evolution must be said to have an extremely high failure rate at the species level.

          Moreover, the species that have survived for the longest time tend to be those that have the lowest rates of evolution. If you think about it, this makes sense, as if they keep on evolving, eventually they evolve into new species.

          Lastly, if you think a bit more, you’ll realize that “species” is a social construct. Some bean counter of a phylogenist—probably a nerd— declares this or that group of organisms to comprise a species, and gets his colleagues to make it official. And bingo! This is the origin of species.

          • Artleads says:

            I love this. Evolution is often thought to be when we grow extra arms and legs as individuals, but it appears to me to be more of a social understanding–where we make fewer social mistakes that get us hurt.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            I never said that evolution ‘aims’ in some conscious way at the permanent existence of any species that is its ‘success’. Rather reality is a flux in which species (see taxonomy) come and go according to energetic laws.

            The central tendency (if not aim) is ever greater concentration of energy dissipation on a cosmic level, including competitive power maximisation on biological and social levels. (I am about to crash, so that brief statement will suffice. Thanks.)

        • Tim Groves says:

          Reality is energetic and it is structured by the maximum power principle.

          In what sense do you consider reality to be energetic?

          I know we can find references to “reality is energetic” but I wasn’t able to pin down what that idea means.

          Since what you were writing was a comment on what Jesse James wrote, and seems to have been an attempt to correct or to expand on his thoughts, it is a shame that few readers will be able to follow what you wrote because when the flow of words enters their minds it “sounds” like “blah, blah, blah”?

          Some of them may be thinking, “this Mirror on the wall is a very clever fellow. Perhaps the smartest bulb in the OFW chandelier I’ll give him that,” but I am certain that not one out of a hundred of them will be able to make sense out of those words if they go to the trouble to try to analyze them.

          And no, it’s not them; it’s you. Also, it’s not the individual words. They are fine. And it’s not the syntax. It’s the combinations of words you put together that I and, I suspect, most readers here have trouble comprehending.

          And no, I am not being grumpy or picky. I just don’t see the point of you going to all the trouble of writing at such length such words of profound wisdom, if hardly anybody who reads them is going to understand them. If this was a philosophy blog, read by fellow luminaries, then I could understand. But if you are going to preach to or educate the laity, you need to talk a language they understand.

          Now, as for Jessie, say what you like about the correctness, appropriateness and acceptability of his opinions, the depth and adeptness of his analyses, or the accuracy of his facts, everything he wrote makes sense to me in the sense that I find it intelligible. I am able to turn his words into thoughts, parse [resolve each sentence into its component parts and describe their syntactic roles] them, and consider whether or not I agree with them, etc.

          Whereas with your words above, I find myself unable to do so. As I read your sentences, what I hear too often in my mind is “blah, blah, blah.”

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            The discussion is centered around Gail on here. Gail has also explained thermodynamics a number of times. Other people ‘get’ what they are able to get, and that is fine. This is a physics economics blog, and not a politico-moral blog. Maybe not everyone can ‘get’ it when reality is framed in that way, and that is fine. They are adapted to politico-moral narratives, and they assume that is always the dominant lens in the discussion of human societies, even it is not, because that is how evolution has largely disposed the masses to think so that societies can function. None of that is a problem, and most people seem to be coping fairly well with Gail’s blog, which affords them their politico-moral narratives. It is all good, but do bear in mind that the blog is not primarily all about how this or that visitor to the comment section feels about the discussion.

        • Harry McGibbs says:

          I broadly agree with what Mirror says but there do seem to be some peculiar exceptions – Cambodia under Pol Pot, for example. The moral narratives of that regime did nothing to reinforce the economy. Quite the reverse in fact.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            I do not mean to imply that humans always act in an ‘optimum’ manner. They have evolved as components of dissipative structures, but that does not mean that they are all good at it, or good at it all the time. Humans are still in the stage of speciation, and they are mutating all the time, a very unstable and imprecise species. And social situations of rapid change, like in Cambodia, can be particularly demanding. That sort of thing.

        • Fred says:

          In an infinite Universe, lifeforms we couldn’t even imagine will rise and fall.

          Some will find non-physical (as we perceive it) ways to travel.

          Our perception operates in a tiny fraction of available ‘reality’, so they might already be here but shifted into a different ‘vibrational/dimensional’ realm such that we can’t perceive them.

          Some physicists postulate that the quantum realm is flickering between different Universes i.e. using ‘quantum timesharing’ to support different dimensions.

      • CTG says:

        The evolution of life form on earth borders on sheer coincidences and mathematically impossibility.

        How can a complex biological system evolve? It is just too complex….

        • Mike Roberts says:

          Ignorance of the mechanism doesn’t mean that it’s impossible for such a mechanism to exist.

          • CTG says:

            Ignorance of the “vaccine adverse effects” doesn’t mean that it’s impossible for such a effects to exist.

            • Mike Roberts says:

              I don’t know how that is relevant. There is plenty of knowledge about the adverse effects. For example, I had a really bad 24 hours after the second dose. However, in general, you’re right. Not knowing how something could work doesn’t mean that there is no mechanism for it to work. Indeed, in the case of life on this planet, we do know it happened and is happening so there must have been a mechanism for it.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I see you can get a 4th dose in NZ now —- do you want me to organize your appointment?

        • slowly at first says:

          May I presume you are invoking the notion of intelligent design and cosmic fine-tuning? Perhaps you have already presented your views on this matter in another comment; I shall look for it.

          • CTG says:

            Not everyone can accept intelligent design especially if one is educated in science (which I am)

            • Kowalainen says:

              If one takes a good long look at the rapacious primate, the word ‘intelligent’ isn’t exactly what firstly springs to mind.

              If it’s “designed”, I’m likely to spot a few problems with the design and test specifications.

              But hey, to a hammer everything looks like a nail. As father – as son.

            • Tim Groves says:

              Either the Universe is as it is either because it was designed to be as it is, or the Universe just is because it is, or else the Universe came about for unfathomable reasons.

              The last two hypotheses are not explanation but rather admissions that we don’t have a credible explanation for how the Universe came to be as it is. I think that some people veer towards the idea of a designer Universe because they would rather have an answer than be left with an unanswerable question.

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              The usual angle on that is that the principle of sufficient reason (causality, intentionality) applies only within the cosmos (causality generally, and intentionality only with subjects), it does not apply to the cosmos as a whole.

              It may be that the cosmos simply ‘is’ and it has no cause. Religion does not really change that situation, of something that ‘just is’, rather it pushes it back to a God that ‘just is’.

              So, religion ‘solves’ that problem that it creates, by erroneously applying the principle of sufficient reason to the cosmos as a whole and not just to things within in, by shifting the same ‘problem’ onto a God. It is no solution and to a problem that is imaginary.

              If some being can ‘just be’, and there is no contradiction in that idea, then the cosmos can just be, the same as religionists say that a God can just be.

              Another way of looking at it, is that there is no ‘reason’ why the cosmos should not just be. There is no reason why there should be nothing rather than something. And indeed, religionist do not say that there is a reason why there should be nothing, or else there would be no God.

              So, humans have a habit of anticipating causality, some reason why things are, and they have evolved to do that in order to anticipate the world and to exploit it. But that does not imply that there should be nothing in the first place, or that the cosmos as a whole has some ‘reason’, some causality, for its existence. And neither does it imply that the same ‘problem’ would not apply to the existence of a God.

              The human mental structure of anticipating causality does not mean that the cosmos as a whole has a cause. That is simply a naive and illogical misapplication of human mental structures.

              As is popularly said, ‘If God made the world, then who made God?’ Maybe that helps people to understand the above reasoning, or at least points them in that direction.

    • I would agree that any civilization based on the dissipation of fossil fuels is likely to burn out pretty quickly. It won’t lead to extraterrestrial life.

    • Hubbs says:

      Hoping to contact time/space traveling extra terrestials is the eternal disappointment. Can a civilization acquire enough knowledge to travel in space/time before running out of resources or before getting eliminted by a meteor or Gamma burst etc.? All advanced life forms may be destined to be forever alone despite a basic life form diaspora or universal spontaneous emergence.

      It’s like never finding your true love. Either of you are born at the different places or different times or just fate makes you miss each other as the late great Neil Peart wrote in his song Roll the Bones, “We’re born into this world and take our chances. Fate is just the weight of circumstances. That’s the way lady luck dances.”

      • Kowalainen says:

        Isn’t it a balance between the curiosities of a species and acquiring material wealth and status within a hierarchy. If the markers of status (power) isn’t based on knowledge and skill, but rather what we have today, yes, you do the thinking what happens when male tryhard schmucks mate with female MOARons. After all some 80% of all consumption is made by females.

        Yay to a competition in vanities and insecurities.

        To develop knowledge and tech surely require burning energy. For example, the small handheld computer I’m typing this on is a marvel of engineering compared with a fossil burners and associated jank parts.

      • Xabier says:

        ‘The problem of Love,
        Cannot be solved in Time’.

        Robert Graves.

    • Jan says:

      I have a list of people that I always thought to be extraterrestrial nerds. But perhaps in fact they are only very earthly toads.

    • postkey says:

      Disclosure project?

      “Secret Knowledge: Probably one of the most important videos of our time; On Wednesday, May 9th, 2001, over twenty military, intelligence, government, corporate and scientific witnesses came forward at the National Press Club in Washington, DC to establish the reality of UFOs or extraterrestrial vehicles, extraterrestrial life forms, and resulting advanced energy and propulsion technologies. The weight of this first-hand testimony, along with supporting government documentation and other evidence, will establish without any doubt the reality of these phenomena.”

      Some ‘believe’ the ‘hogwash’?

  9. Rodster says:

    The Pfizer Documents by Chris Martenson

    “The FDA and Pfizer wanted to keep the vaccine trial results hidden for up to 75 years. Now we know why. There are some quite serious anomalies that are begging for answers.

    One such example is the fact that the lead author on the seminal vaccine paper in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM), one Fernando Polack, MD, just happened to be the only investigator in charge of a site in Argentina that purportedly managed to recruit 4,501 patients in just three weeks!

    Is this even possible with a full team and the backing of a major contract research organization (CRO)? It’s quite the feat and it needs to be investigated and answers given.

    Without more transparency some might be left wondering if perhaps there was fraud involved or that perhaps patient records were sloppy because the on-boarding pace was too rapid. Regardless, no such questions should ever be part of the landscape, especially not when it involves a brand new medical intervention platform (mRNA) that was mandated as a condition of continued education and/or employment.

    Why were these records fought to be effectively sealed? Why wasn’t complete and open transparency a cornerstone of the entire program of mass vaccination in the first place?”

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    7 studies that help explain why the vaccinated are getting more infected; especially the 2nd by Yahi et al; shows the non-neutralizing Abs bind to the virus spike, and enhances infectiousness of virus

  11. Sam says:

    Will pensions in the United States be able to pay out 10 years from now? I don’t see how they can

    • Rodster says:

      I seriously doubt social security will exist 10-15 yrs down the road. The criminal part is those paying into the system now will never get that money back.

    • There is also the myth that money is a store of value. What you save, will be there, and will be useful in the future. If there is practically nothing to buy, that cannot be true.

      I can’t see how pensions can pay out 10 years from now. I am doubtful about even 5 years from now.

      • Sam says:

        Really!? Five years? Then we must be coming down on the cliff? I wonder when joe six pack will realize that? I think they will pay but only in worthless currency. Normalcy bias is all people have when I explain our current predicament

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The only true store of value is a tank full of diesel… But good luck hanging onto that during a Mad Max shit show

      • Xabier says:

        Psychologically, people tend to attribute to money the intrinsic value which dried grains and meat, and other goods, had in earlier stages of existence.

        At best it is only a token in a game, the board of which can be thrown up in the air in a moment…..

    • Sergey says:

      US have to learn how to deal with these from Russia. Average male life expectancy in Russia is 66. Pension age for male raised to 65. Problem solved.

      • Xabier says:

        I’m inclined to believe that we have – generally – done and learnt all we could or should do in life by the age of 60.

        Just look up the lives of the greatest men and women.

        To die at 55-65 is not so terrible, unless one is foolish enough to live for a pension.

        But secret murder by pharmaceuticals is, nonetheless, a heinous crime…….

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    Tom2 hr ago

    I had Covid 1.0 in early 2020. It felt bad, but not nearly as bad as a flu. I tested positive after a hospital stay (negative prior to admittance) early this year. It was like a very mild cold – snifles and a slight cough for 48 hours. Not jabbed. The only members of my family who were jabbed got sick from the jab and have been sick with Covid numerous times since being jabbed. Their special needs daughter – unjabbed and not sick with anything for a second during this scam. EVERY jabbed healthcare provider I know has gotten very ill, EVERY unjabbed healthcare provider I know, nothing, no sniffles, nothing.

    William Norton2 hr ago
    Just had a friend (double vaxxed, boosted) say those EXACT words to me when he got a bad case of Covid. “I would be in the hospital without the vaccine.” Project Brainwash claims another success.

    Martha Rowen2 hr ago
    As I was walking from the farmers market this afternoon, I overheard a conversation behind me about high fevers and doses of the “vaccine” and turned around to see two young women masked to the gills outside on this gorgeous sunny day. I couldn’t retain giving them an appalled stare, shaking my head, and making an audible comment to myself on their intelligence. Sorry, not very classy on my part, but my patience is at its breaking point with all these people who likely won’t see reality even when they are being placed on a ventilator or suffering a heart attack immediately after their 7th booster.

    Jetta2 hr ago
    I walked into a room at the library for a book sale, tiny and airless, and the four or five elderly people needlessly standing there talking in kn95s told me I needed a mask to enter. If they think their lives are in danger and so are others then WHY would they stand there at all?? I can hardly stand it anymore.

    Christine Ritchie35 min ago
    My doctor friends are convinced children with myocarditis from the vax is waaaay better getting long Covid🤮🤮🤮it’s unbearable to have to listen to a “smart” person who I used to respect say such ignorant beliefs.

    • neil says:

      I got Covid in Sept 21, otherwise good health. Definitely far worse than flu. Temperature for 2 weeks, when I usually shake off the flu in 2 days. Ended up with a lowish O2 level due to pneumonia and needed supplemental oxygen for a few days, plus dexamathasone. I still wouldn’t take the mRNA vaccines, but would consider the alternatives. I’m hoping natural immunity will last

      • Take vitamin D to get your vitamin D level up. This will help your immune system against many things, including COVID.

        • Harry says:

          I wonder if it might become difficult to get vitamin D in the future as supply chains continue to collapse and the secession of the global economy continues.

          • Genomir says:

            Eat lot of pumpkin. It is great source of vit D

            • Tim Groves says:

              Sadly, regrettably, lamentably, I must mark this comment as erroneous.

              Pumpkin contains zero IU of vitamin D.

              But according to Web MD, pumpkin “offers a long list of nutrients that protect and support the heart, such as vitamins A, B1, B6, and C, copper, fiber, folate, and manganese. Pumpkin also provides calcium, potassium, and magnesium, which can help keep your heartbeat regular and your blood pressure low.”

              So “eat a lot of pumpkin” is sound advice. Unless you have problems with too much vitamin A, which some people suggest is a poison that needs to be stored in the fat or the liver to keep it from damaging the body.

              Foods relatively rich in vitamin D include cod liver oil (is that a food?), trout, salmon, mushrooms, sardines, and eggs.

              The best source of vitamin D is sunbathing, and you can raise your blood levels by taking synthetic vitamin D supplements that are, I believe, derived from sheep wool. There is conflicting advice on whether that’s a good thing to do, or whether you need to take it with vitamin K or with calcium. But it will raise your blood levels.

              And of course, I could be wrong about some of the above.

              My favorite way of eating pumpkin is in the form of pumpkin tempura. If you’ve ever had that, you’ll know how tasty it is.


      • Kim says:

        Were you offered Ivermectin?

        What early treatments were you offered?

        • Neil says:

          I took ivermectin of my own accord for a few days
          Can’t really say it helped much, but I don’t know how things would have progressed had I not. Regardless, Covid can be a nasty disease and I can appreciate why the immunocompromised or weak may be at high risk.

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Prepping for Starvation

    Uncertainty clouds the coverage of what appears to be brutal lockdown of countless numbers in Shanghai. Now, reports are coming, in the form of viral videos leaked to social media, indicating Lockdowns have spread to another major city in China.

    If I was heading PR I’d be shooting a few more people in Sri Lanka… you want to send out the message that Resistance Is Futile…. stay off the streets — the shops are empty anyway… Stay Home Stay Safe — the food will be delivered (well… maybe not haha)….

    And Starve.

    Global Holodomor awaits everyone.

    • This video is disturbing, especially for those of us who know people in Beijing. The way China is handling COVID is very strange, unless they are very short on fuel and feel that they need to keep people inside to reduce fuel consumption and prevent protests.

      • Harry says:

        If you look at what is happening in China, you would almost think that the government is preparing the population for wartime.
        China is hoarding large amounts of grain, these quarantine camps could just as easily be military hospitals, and imprisoning and subduing the population under the guise of the bizarre “zero covid” strategy could just as easily be a trial run for war.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    J.Roc2 hr agoPinned
    I know people are referring you to Geert’s analysis. It is 2x scary. Number one: the vaccine induced, non neutralizing antibodies make the vaccinated more susceptible to infection but those same antibodies FOR NOW prevent serious disease and death. That is likely to change with the new mutations and leave the vaccinated incredibly vulnerable. Thing 2: the elimination from the population of people whose innate immunity hasn’t been destroyed in favor of vaccine induced limited scope immunity puts all of humanity at risk to never ending waves of this virus. It’s quite scary and I wonder what your take is on Geert’s analysis.

    Alex Berenson2 hr agoAuthor
    I think these risks are real.

    But I don’t consider myself qualified to know whether they are possible (say 20%+, which given their severity would be a huge risk), unlikely (5-20%), very unlikely (1-5%), or almost impossible (under 1%). These are incredibly complicated questions of virology and immunology, and they probably involve guesswork even for the best experts.

    The real problem is that aside from Geert and a couple of other people who have been yelling about this all along, no one is even discussing it, much less trying to quantify it, much less doing any kind of work necessary to define the risks. This needs to happen NOW.


    J.Roc2 hr ago
    I appreciate you man. We all do. You are a warrior reporter and I am grateful.


    George McGuire1 hr ago
    Geert is recommending to stop all vaccinations including boosters. Move quickly to distributing anti-virals. He compares this wave to the Spanish Flu without vaccination intervention, the virus went to a baseline of zero infections within 2 years. We can never get to a zero baseline of infections with non sterilizing vaccines.


    Horsey1 hr ago·edited 1 hr ago
    Geert believes his cross-science expertise has put the key pieces together but he thinks the other side isn’t engaging out of pure arrogance in any discussion about those concerns as the “Horse has already left the barn.” He bluntly says they will not admit they were wrong and we all know this to be true.

    Once they decided to introduce an experimental “vax” into a pandemic population, they opened up the pathway for further unknowns with new immune pressure outcomes. Worse, Geert is anticipating that immune pressure enhanced by the needless and foolish vaxing of kids and youth will only further increase immune pressure leading to a mutation which will not be stopped by any aspect of the existing vax and worse, leaving those who took the jab(s) helpless against the onset of disease and death. It’s the apocalypse sci-fi movie scenario come to life.

    We’re already seeing indicators with reports of the highly jabbed repeatedly catching the ChiCom virus. Does it sustain and ease or get worse? As your resident Horse, I am not qualified to conclude either but I fear Geert has ample reason for concern.


    • Jan says:

      I guess there can be such effects, also look at the ‘original antigenic sin’, even in Wikipedia. There is also the risk of an overshooting immune system and of autoimmune reactions. But currently we are not seeing that on a broader scale. The cardiovascular effects seem to be worse at the moment.

      To me it seems as if the side effects of the jabs occur more or less within a few weeks or months after the shot. I have never heard of complications occurring after one year. But it is possible of course that a lot of jabs in the beginning contained nothing.

      I agree to the idea to stop the jabs completely as soon as possible!

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Hey norm mike

    Geert will be right. Geert will be right. Geert will be right

    So what comes next? It is nearly impossible to know, because the answer depends both on whether the mRNA shots retard the development of long-term post-infection immunity and how virulent the next variant might be.

    At the moment citizens and politicians in the highly vaccinated countries have correctly decided they can live with this level of death and hospitalization from the coronavirus – not that anyone has a choice, since every control measure has now completely failed.

    But the warning signs here are real, and global, no matter how much the media and public health establishment and politicians who cajoled or forced more than 1 billion people to get the mRNA vaccines want to ignore them.,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/

  16. Fast Eddy says:


    And what about Colbert hahaha… second Covid round in a month hahahaha…. I hope they feed that sunofabich Rem Death is Near….

    I’ll even sing along to the vaccine song 🙂

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    mike norm mike norm

    here’s an interesting little factoid.

    based on the NYT data HERE i compared the list of the top 10 US states (excluding territories) by full vaccination % to the list of the top 10 states by cases per day at present (using 7 day moving avg)

    strikingly, 8 out of 10 of the most vaxxed on in the top 10 for most cases per capita. (and thus 8 out of 10 of most cases/100k are in most vaxxed)

    the top three match the top 3.

    in fact, the top 7 match the top 7.

    odd, no?

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Shoot-on-sight orders in Sri Lanka after deadly violence

    As expected – if the riots threaten UEP — they will do whatever it takes to buy more time

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Or will norm mike affirm that those who are experiencing mass psychosis are oblivious to facts and logic and will continue to inject?

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    The mRNA red flags fly ever-higher

    Omicron is surging in highly vaccinated states; data from Vermont show the jabbed are now MORE likely to need hospitalization than the unvaccinated

    Vermont is as European as American states get: mostly white, slow-growing, and left-leaning. It even has a socialist senator.

    Vermont has European rates of Covid vaccination, too. About 90 percent of adults over 30 in Vermont are have been jabbed. Most of those are boosted – including about 85 percent of adults over 65.

    Yet Vermont is now suffering its second major outbreak of Omicron in five months. Since late March, Covid hospitalizations have soared to the second-highest level ever in the state, trailing only the initial Omicron peak. The number of patients in intensive care is up even more.

    Covid hospitalizations in Vermont (because Vermont is so small, 100 hospitalizations statewide translates into about 53,000 for the United States):,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/

    mike – is this enough to demonstrate that you are wrong?

    norm – is this enough to stop you from taking a FIFTH shot?

    • I looked at Alex Berenson’s report and I am afraid I am not convinced by it. Yes, Vermont hospitalizations are up, but I don’t think that the data provided tells you how those hospitalizations are divided between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. For some reason, there seems to be a huge lag in when the hospitalization by vaccination status data comes into the report. Or something else I don’t understand is happening with the data.

      I don’t see anything that would convince me to think, “The surge is occurring almost exclusively in vaccinated people.” It is happening somewhere, but the data doesn’t tell me where. Maybe it is the vaccinated; maybe it is the unvaccinated. Given the large share of vaccinated people in Vermont, it could very well be vaccinated people, but I can’t prove that from the links provided.

      • Mike Roberts says:

        Data is bad everywhere. Here in NZ, we get the vaccination status of those in hospital with COVID-19, not because of COVID-19. Even these figures show the unvaccinated about 3 times as likely as the boosted to be hospitalised. We don’t know the incidental hospitalisations but have had some estimates which, if true, would increase that hospitalisation risk, from COVID-19, for the unvaccinated to 5 times the boosted. But good data are hard to find.

        • Replenish says:

          Thanks for sharing Mike. Are they using the PCR test in NZ and if so are they running them at the same cycle threshold for both the vaccinated and unvaccinated? Are they asking for patient’s vaccination status upon admission to the hospital and do you acknowledge or are you aware of different protocols for the unvaccinated? I wonder if the disparity between NZ and other highly vexed countries with regards to higher cases and increasing severity in the under-vaccinated can be attributed to a lack of natural infection in the younger population negating herd immunity due to lockdown stringency.

          In the US, Doctors are simply telling the unvaccinated sick to go home until symptoms develop at which point the disease has progressed from an early treatable phase in the nasal passages to full blown Covid pneumonia. At this point, the protocol is pain relievers, sedatives, Remdesivir and Ventilation followed by death. I have lost 3 older friends and acquaintances to the withholding of early treatment options. An older friend who follows holistic medicine and suffers from chronic Lyme disease isolated with pneumonia the better part of 2 weeks until his 02 levels dropped dangerously low. His wife had him go to his doctor where he was treated for pneumonia with antibiotics and steroids.. his symptoms subsided in 72 hours. If you know any unvaccinated holdouts, I suggest telling them to follow the suggestion to increase Vitamin D levels and strongly ask their medical provider for a standard treatment of viral respiratory disease.

          Thanks for reading!

          • Xabier says:

            Very good advice: prompt treatment with conventional drugs for pneumonia/serious respiratory infection is vital.

            At an early stage it can usually be readily reversed: at a later stage it is ever more perilous and resistant to treatment.

            This is precisely why, in March 2020, people everywhere, and it was clearly internationally co-ordinated, were told to stay at home without any medical care until struggling for breath: to bump up the ‘Covid’ death-rate and sow fear…..

            It was disgraceful of physicians to go along with being instructed not to treat people.

            • Replenish says:

              Agreed. Disgraceful and deserving of their compete removal from our circle of trust.

              The claim I’ve heard from nurses in the family is that this was done due to fear of spreading the virus in the hospital, urgent care and doctor’s office. Another nurse said she was on staff at various hospitals. Some were swamped with patients others nary a one.. different protocols?

              This poor treatment explains why an elderly family member was placed in ER triage for hours without food and water and released with a DNR bracelet on her wrist. One Nurse said it is sad when this happens, meaning isolating, starving and giving end of life care rather than standard treatment for respiratory distress is a common occurrence in the past?

              What was the point of the pandemic drills, scripted narratives and colossal regulatory capture? Vaccines and social engineering, lol. Thanks Xabier.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Ya the data is everywhere!!! New Zealand

          Even here

          more boosters mike … keep going … we are cheering you on from the bleachers…

          Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go!

          We wish you well… we really do hahahahaha actually we really do not give a f789 if you take a 100 boosters… if after the next one your entrails hang our your arse like a baboon’s… if you brain is leaky out your ears and nose…

          Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go! Go mike Go!

  21. In 1806, Napoleon introduced the Continental System . In short every country under his control should not trade with United Kingdom.

    A sanction against UK was not only just UK but territories held by it, basically all of the Caribbean, South America , South Africa and some parts of South and SE Asia.

    The Russian Invasion and the war of 1812 occurred because of that .

    It was the New England merchants, who valued their short term profit more than the chance to conquer Canada, who saved London. Something not in the history books. Not too well known is the fact that USA almost went into a Civil War, as then politically dominant South tried to fight the Northern States which were actively sabotaging the war effort.

    It looks like the self-sanction of the West against Russia in 2022 is causing the same effect, on the American and Western side. It is possible that USA might go war against China because of it.

  22. Mirror on the wall says:

    This poll is particularly striking given the absolute tsunami of ridiculous MSM propaganda from day one about the Ukraine.

    > Sanctions hurt US more than Russia – poll

    Most Americans focused on economic woes at home, more than two in five of respondents indifferent to Ukraine’s fate

    A new poll has found that 53% of Americans believe that sanctions on Moscow hurt the US more than Russia. Amid soaring gas prices and rising living costs, voters are losing confidence in US President Joe Biden’s leadership, and 43% say they’re “OK” with Ukraine losing its ongoing conflict with Russia.

    With inflation at a 40-year peak and gas prices near record highs, the Democracy Institute/ poll revealed that Biden is polling negatively in all policy areas, with foreign policy the worst. Some 56% disapprove of his handling of foreign matters, compared to 40% approving. On Ukraine specifically, only 38% approve of his stewardship, while 52% disapprove.

    The Biden administration has attempted to blame Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, for the rising cost of living at home, with his officials repeatedly referring to “Putin’s price hike.” However, living costs were rising for months before Russia sent troops into Ukraine, and voters are pointing the finger at Biden for their economic woes.

    Some 50% said they’d back Republicans in November’s midterm elections, compared with 42% saying they’d vote Democrat. In addition to more voters being “OK” than “not OK” with Ukraine losing the conflict with Russia (43%-41%), a majority of Americans think it would be better for Biden to leave office than for Putin to step down, by 53% to 44%.

    “Americans were very pro sanctions at first, [but] they are not as keen on the sanctions as they were,” Democracy Institute Director Patrick Basham told Express. “Biden made these predictions at the outset – the ruble would be rubble, we were going to crash the Russian economy, people will rise up, Putin will be out, the Russians will run away from Ukraine … [but] none of those things have happened.”

    This difference between expectation and reality has made people cynical, he claimed, comparing the apparent loss of trust to public disillusionment with coronavirus policies throughout the West.

    “The problem [now] is that at least half of the country in America thinks they were hoodwinked over a lot of the Covid stuff, so they are even more cynical about government and media than they were two years ago,” he said.

    • Mirror on the wall says:


      “a majority of Americans think it would be better for Biden to leave office than for Putin to step down, by 53% to 44%.”

    • Of course, this is a “RT (Russia Today) article, so we can wonder if there is a bias to it.

      I don’t know whether it is true that at least half of the country in America thinks they were hoodwinked over a lot of the Covid stuff, so they are even more cynical about government and media than they were two years ago. Some percentage things that is true. But we still have a lot of believers in whatever MSM prints.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      “Increasingly expensive fuel has forced roughly two-thirds of vehicle owners in the US to change their driving habits.”

      Americans are not going to be happy about that!

      > US gasoline prices set new record

      Rising oil prices are driving the cost at the pump higher

      Gasoline prices at the pump in the US hit a new all-time record on Tuesday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA).

      The average retail cost of a gallon of gas hit $4.374 early on Tuesday, the AAA said, surpassing the former record of $4.331, set in March.

      The increase is mainly due to the high cost of crude oil, which was hovering near $100 per barrel last week and is now closing in on $110, the association explains on its website.

      Futures of Brent crude, the main global benchmark, have actually dropped 7% since March 30. As a result, gas prices ticked slightly lower in April but are now up roughly 10%.

      The retail price of diesel fuel also reached a record this week, hitting $5.45 per gallon.

      A recent survey found that increasingly expensive fuel has forced roughly two-thirds of vehicle owners in the US to change their driving habits.

      Oil prices have been pushed higher by some US refineries having closed during the pandemic, while the remaining ones are nearing full capacity, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

      Global fuel stockpiles are being reduced as demand has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, whereas production has not yet been able to catch up. Oil supplies tightened further after Russia – a major oil exporter – launched its offensive in Ukraine, leading to the United States, the EU and their allies imposing sanctions on Russia and banning, or planning to phase out, the country’s oil.

  23. Mirror on the wall says:


    > Ukraine turns off Europe-bound gas

    Kiev cites ‘force majeure’ to halt a third of Russian transited gas flow to Europe, while Gazprom says there have been no issues that would justify the move
    Ukraine turns off Europe-bound gas

    Russian gas conglomerate Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or any obstacles to continued transit of gas through a junction in Lugansk Region, the company said on Tuesday, after Ukraine’s operator OGTSU announced it would halt further deliveries starting May 11, due to the presence of “Russian occupiers.”

    Gas Transit Services of Ukraine (OGTSU) declared force majeure on Tuesday, saying that it was impossible to continue the transit of gas through a connection point and compressor station located in the Lugansk area. As OGTSU personnel “cannot carry out operational and technological control” over the Sokhranovka connector point and Novopskov compressor station, the company cannot continue to fulfill its contract obligations, it said.

    Gas from this connection will not be accepted into the transit system of Ukraine starting at 7 am on Wednesday, OGTSU said. Sokhrankovka accounts for almost a third of the Russian gas that transits through Ukraine to Europe – up to 32.6 million cubic meters per day – according to the operators.

    Gazprom has received no confirmation of force majeure or disruption of operations at Sokhranovka or Novopskov, company spokesman Sergey Kupriyanov said on Tuesday. He added that Ukrainian specialists have had full access to both facilities all along, and there had been no complaints about it previously.

    Kupriyanov also said that Gazprom has been notified by Ukraine’s gas company Naftogaz that if Russia continues to supply gas through Sokhranovka, Kiev will reduce the volume at the point of exit by the same amount, effectively confiscating the gas.

    While OGTSU has proposed to reroute the gas to Sudzha, a connector located in the Sumy region and controlled by the Ukrainian government, Kupriyanov said this was “technologically impossible.”

    “The distribution of volumes is clearly spelled out in the cooperation agreement dated December 30, 2019, and the Ukrainian side is well aware of this,” he said.

    Gazprom is fulfilling all of its obligations to its European customers, with all the transit services in accordance with the terms of the contract and paid in full, Kupriyanov pointed out. Moscow has continued gas deliveries to Europe, including transit through Ukraine, regardless of the ongoing military operation and the embargoes against Russia imposed by the US and its allies in the EU.

    • This is bizarre. It is also from RT = Russia Today, so it may have a Russian “spin’ to it.

      Whey would Ukraine cut off natural gas that Russia is supplying to Europe. I imagine at this point Europe is mostly filling up its reservoirs for next fall, so there may not be huge damage, but it certainly is strange.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Among other reasons, this could be being done on the orders of the Empire of Lies to punish the Hungarians for agreeing to pay for Gas in Rubles.

        The Poles can get their gas via Belarus or via Germany from Nordstream. but the Hungarians (and the Slovaks) are very dependent on the Ukraine links.

  24. Mirror on the wall says:

    “We are heading to a really horrible place where none of us want to be.”

    > Millions of UK homes face no heat this winter, power chief warns

    Scottish Power CEO warned that rising gas prices could drive energy bills to nearly £3,000 in October

    Scottish Power CEO Keith Anderson told the Daily Mail on Monday that with gas prices skyrocketing in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia, household energy bills could rise to £2,900 ($3,576) by October. With some 10 million UK homes potentially unable to afford heating, Anderson called on the government to set up a support scheme.

    British households have already seen their energy costs – including electricity and heating – rise by £700 between October and April, and that increase is expected to accelerate, Anderson warned.

    “It will hit incredibly hard and immediately,” said Anderson, whose company supplies electricity to parts of Scotland, England, and Wales. “If nothing else happens by October, I think we will see a huge increase in pre-payment customers in effect self disconnecting – not reloading their pre-payment meter because they can’t afford to do it.”

    “We will also see a massive increase in debt levels for direct debit customers, and a massive increase in people being pushed from direct debits to prepayment meters so that companies can recover the debt,” he continued. “We are heading to a really horrible place where none of us want to be.”

    Aside from energy, the cost of food, clothing and transportation has risen across the UK, and the Bank of England warned last week that inflation would soon hit 10%. Andy Haldane, the Bank’s former chief economist, told LBC Radio on Monday that this number would likely increase, and that soaring inflation would “last the duration of the year, and into next or even the year beyond.”

    • Another RT = Russia Today article.

      The UK is clearly going to have a problem with high-cost gas, or not enough natural gas come this fall. Something will go wrong somewhere along the line. We don’t know exactly what, when. Perhaps “a huge increase in pre-payment customers in effect self disconnecting – not reloading their pre-payment meter because they can’t afford to do it.” The lower demand will be part of what accommodates lower availability of natural gas.

      • neil says:

        This is also mentioned in The Guardian UK paper. My energy bill doubled in Feb when I came off my old tariff. It will cause a lot of pain to people.

        The annoying thing is even if you cut your electricity and gas use to zero, you still have to pay a daily rate to stay connected to the grid (the standing charge). With zero use, this amounts to about $330 a year combined for gas and electricity

      • Xipi says:

        You can’t not reload the meter. You get charged. You get charged whether you use fuel or not. I came back from my mums after a week and not only did I not have any central heating, I also owed another tenner!

        I had to physically call up the gas board to come and take the meter out. That’s a big stretch for a lot of people. I’ve been without gas for nearly a decade now. Running everything off electricity.

        Some people may find it is not possible to do this due to their particular tenency agreements.

        I wash and bathe and shower at my mum’s place. It’s not a biggie for me, having to look after another relative, so the slack gets taken up there. But for someone living alone, it means no showers/bath, no hot water from a tap to clean dishes. It’s doable. I’ve adapted very well. I see no reason to have a gas meter put back in in fact.

        They come and they rip your meter out and they plug it. By law, an inspection must take place every 12 months in the uk (Corgi). They just come and check that I’ve not hooked it all back up by myself (fat chance) and they give you a certificate of safety. No need really – I don’t have gas at all.

        When I’m at home I can bathe quite well with a kettle or two of water. I’m not in a relationship, I don’t have friends. I get by. I make sure that I am spry and crisp and clean for any meetings I have outside the house, and so far, no complaints.

        Soon the hot baths/showers at my mum’s will be coming to an end as she and my step-dad die. I guess by that point it won’t matter too much, and even less people will be offended by any smell, because if a tree falls in a forest, and no one is there to smell it… kind of thing…

        Life is good. I’ve been living this way for a while. I’ve also lived the high-life with Kings in my past. So I do have something to compare this all to. I’m not missing out on much. I eat well. I stock up on food. I plan.

        I’m not sure how many people could live without hot running water to bathe and to wash dishes. I’ve done that for over a decade. It’s become a fact of life for me. No biggie. I’ve had certain advantages like the bathing at my folk’s house, but truth be told that is only every couple of months. I keep myself clean, all the same.

        As they get older and my visiting them means a greater frequency of washing in their hot tub, it also means a certain drastic cutoff point is about to come soon, where I won’t be visiting at all because the lot of us will have dropped off the edge of Seneca’s cliff!

        God bless you Claire and thank you for this blog.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Fascinating stuff… can you tell us about when you lived with Kings?

          I think you meant Gail … not Claire though….

        • Tim Groves says:

          I remember the day when my gran and grandad, who lived upstairs in our Victorian terraced house-cum-slum, got a gas hot water heater installed above the sink in their kitchen. It was in 1966 when I was eight, and the five of us downstairs had to make do with boiling a kettle and standing in a tub once a week.

          When we moved out of the ten-bob-a-week house into a two-pounds-a-week flat when I was twelve, I had the first proper hot bath of my life, and I felt that was a terrible extravagance.

          I also remember, a little later, the day the man from the Gas Board came around to “convert” us from town gas to natural gas. It was an almost religious experience.

          Back then, in the sixties we lived from week to week and in the seventies from month to month, but we did not feel poor and certainly not deprived. Housewives used to sing as they washed their windows every week and hung the family’s laundry out to dry on a line in the backyard. It was glorious. It was magic. At least for me as a kid.

          But enough of my reminiscences for now. I hope you’ll all read it when it comes out in paperback.

    • Mirror on the wall says:


      > Lyon veteran centre back Marcelo’s ‘inappropriate behaviour’, which led to his mid-season dismissal by the Ligue 1 club, ‘was sparked by him FARTING in the dressing room – and laughing about it with team-mates’

      One of the most bizarre situations is that of Brazilian defender Marcelo, who was mysteriously kicked out of the first-team in August 2021, before leaving the club under a cloud just a few months later.

      It has now been reported that his exit was sparked by his flatulence in the dressing room – and the ensuing laughter with team-mates – which riled the hierarchy during a difficult period for the club on the pitch.

      The specific incident occurred following a 3-0 defeat away at Angers – a team Lyon will have expected to beat – in which Marcelo scored an own goal.

    • Idea that would work much better with lots of available cheap energy and subsidies. Difficult to see it as a priority now.

    • eKnock says:

      The Boring Co. is parent company of CAD Environmental Services LLC.
      Elon is just doing what needs to be done.
      When the CEP or UEP gets rolling there will be some serious need to dispose of all those billions of CADs.
      If they did the old fashion thing and dug a bunch of pits it would be like digging another Panama Canal.
      Elon will bore the tunnels and they’ll have retractable conveyor belt assemblies to fill up the tunnels from the rear.
      He’s got the CAD disposal thing all worked out.
      Go Elon!

      • Xabier says:

        I thought we were to be turned into bio-manure? Burial, such a dreadful waste!

        • eKnock says:

          The CADs in the first world will need a HAZMAT response.
          They’re all full of spike proteins and preservatives and Meds.
          Makes bad fertilizer.

  25. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    That’s All Folks

    My conversation with him and Van der Ploeg was filled with talk of the potential for a Minsky moment, in which the value of some assets drops dramatically.

    Equipment manufacturers will suffer similar problems, as will companies that transport fuels and run pipelines. Every industry that makes the equipment used to extract, transport, or burn fossil fuels will see its market evaporate. Companies that make transportation hardware, like automobiles and trains, will struggle to adjust. All the utilities that have invested in building and maintaining fossil-fuel-powered generating facilities will see them retired long before their useful life is over. The concrete, steel, and chemical industries that rely on fossil fuels will face consequences.

    “It’s huge, because we’re not just talking about oil and gas and coal,” Gupta said. “We’re talking about the aircraft industry, we’re talking about the car industry, we’re talking about scooters, ships—all those industries. We’re talking about every house that has a gas connection, we’re talking about pipelines that connect with gas. It’s massive.”

    All of these stranded assets may ultimately be written off as losses, leading to sudden changes in profitability throughout the economy. This will obviously affect their financials. But it will also affect things like retirement funds, college endowments, and other entities that, either directly or indirectly, have invested in these companies. “The residential housing crisis of 2008 was not the whole market; it was rather a very isolated and smaller portion of the financial market,” Rezai said. “Because of the interconnectedness of the banking system, [that] led to a meltdown on a bigger scale.” While he and van der Ploeg are skeptical that fossil fuels will create problems on a similar scale, the risks aren’t zero.

    Van der Ploeg also praised the central banks of many countries, which were already aware of the risks of stranded assets and are taking steps to manage the situation. This is happening despite the fact that the government that created the bank is often doing nothing. “Governments seem to be oblivious. They don’t seem to care,” he said, later remarking on the potential for counterproductive government responses: “You don’t know—just because it’s stupid policy doesn’t mean to say it’s not going to happen.”

    All of that is focused on the large-scale risks of stranded assets. However, Gupta emphasized that every individual will also end up with some assets that are likely to be stranded. “I think the discussion about how each house, each business, and each university becomes independent of fossil fuel has yet to start,” she said. “Every house, every person, every individual has to get involved.”

    Yep, it is already baking and just about ready to serve!

    • Oddys says:

      Its beyond my imagination how anyone could still belive this cl1mate drivel, specially on a site like this, but I guess it feels better than realizing that we are running out of the stuff.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Likewise, it is beyond me that you dont. As Gail likes to write…does not matter, for we are unable to do much about it.
        BTW, those stranded assets mentioned in my article post will occur regardless of CC or not….as we are unable to afford the ff extraction costs …
        The point of my post is the general public, like yourself, will be given the sang and dance of every excuse in the book of the coming collapse.
        This will be one of the many thrown out there.
        Jay Hansen, of the former Dieoff blog and did just that in a scuba accident, felt the average Joe and Jane will not realize the real reason.
        So far, those in charge are doing a fine show…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        They are experiencing mass psychosis – not matter what you show them…. they will never change their feeble minds… it gets colder? blame it on goooby worming … hahahaha… ice cap expands… oh that’s also gooby worming …

        The Earth could turn into a ball of ice… and that would be… yep…

  26. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Officials worry Southern California won’t have enough water to get through summer without unprecedented cuts
    CNN LA Expansion 2019, 655386, Stephanie Elam
    By Stephanie Elam, CNN

    Updated 4:54 PM ET, Wed May 4, 2022
    The country’s second largest reservoir is drying up, this is why

    The country’s second largest reservoir is drying up, this is why 02:44
    (CNN)As Southern Californians brace for unprecedented water restrictions, officials worry some communities won’t have enough water to get through the summer — at least not without residents and businesses significantly cutting back on their usage.

    The state’s top natural resources officer told CNN that California’s water emergency clearly shows the climate crisis in action.
    “Some would consider this a wake-up call. I disagree,” Wade Crowfoot, California’s secretary for natural resources, told CNN. “The alarm’s already gone off.”
    The West’s megadrought
    Why the Great American Lawn is terrible for the West’s water crisis

    Lake Powell officials face an impossible choice in the West’s megadrought: Water or electricity

    Lake Mead plummets to unfathomable low, exposing original 1971 water intake valve

    Experts say the term ‘drought’ may be insufficient to capture what is happening in the West

    The Colorado River irrigates farms, powers electric grids and provides drinking water for 40 million people. As its supply dwindles, a crisis looms.

    Scientists reported earlier this year that the West’s current megadrought is the worst in at least 1,200 years and that the human-caused climate crisis has made it 72% worse.
    For the past two decades, weather in the West has been characterized by extended periods of drought with fleeting bursts of wintertime precipitation which have never been enough to overcome the region’s severe water shortage.
    In California, snow typically builds up in the Sierra Nevada throughout the winter, storing precious water that gradually melts through the spring and early summer and replenishes reservoirs. In a normal year, snow melt would provide 30% of the state’s water, according to the Department of Water Resources.
    But by April, at the end of this year’s wet season, California’s snowpack was only 4% of normal. By May there was no snow at all.
    “Climate change is here and it’s been here across the American West,” Crowfoot told CNN. “Climate change is accelerating in alarming ways and faster than scientists predicted even 10 or 20 years ago and that means we have to move very quickly as governments, as water agencies, as communities.”
    Just a natural variation of 1,200….BAU continues…stay tuned fellow OFWorldsrs😎

    • Rodster says:

      The US West has a serious “water crisis” on its hands. Way too many people wanting their claim on those resources. Unfortunately the US is the King of wasting resources, with restaurants throwing away unused food instead of giving it to the needy. In my home state of Florida, restaurant’s are required by law to keep a low pressure water tap running 24 hours a day so as not to risk bacteria building up and getting people sick. Now multiply that by the amount of restaurants operating in Florida.

      Meanwhile most if not ALL homes never leave their taps running all day because A) they would run up a huge water bill each month and B) because no if ever gets sick by shutting off their faucets for extended periods of time.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        But I do my part Roadster. I have a pee bottle instead of flushing down gallons of fresh water in the dink… Save hundreds of gallons in a week or so…
        Never mind the nutrient rich yellow liquid I poor in the park.
        Yep, so much to act upon, so little time..
        Thxs for your post..
        Like the comic Sam Kinnison said..Ya, it’s just a natural variation of over 2,000 years…ya, he’s coming back..sure thing, maybe as a Game Show Host!

    • This may encourage more movement of the population out of the arid Southwest. It will hurt US food supply, I fear.

      • Dana says:

        Maybe we should move the people to where the water is, not the water to where the people are. Oh – no! Think of the real estate market!

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          My Godparents moved to the Phoenix area from New Jersey and made a killing in real Estate there after selling their liquor store. Real easy back then, he told me all he did was go ahead of the developments and bought land…sold as they caught up.
          He also had a few apartments there. Nice people…make your money work for you.
          Free adorable oil was available back then

    • Kim says:

      “the human-caused climate crisis has made it 72% worse”

      Not 71%. Not 73%. Exactly 72%.

      That is how good “the science’ is.

  27. CTG says:


    Nonprofit Watchdog Uncovers $350 Million In Secret Payments To Fauci, Collins, Others At NIH

    • The article says:

      The undisclosed royalty payments are inherent conflicts of interest, Andrzejewski said.

      “We believe there is an unholy conflict of interest inherent at NIH,” he said. “Consider the fact that each year, NIH doles out $32 billion in grants to approximately 56,000 grantees. Now we know that over an 11-year period, there is going to be approximately $350 million flowing the other way from third-party payers, many of which receive NIH grants, and those payments are flowing back to NIH scientists and leadership.”

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Real? Fake?

        Who knows … it will definitely keep people off the scent of the UEP… the PR Team is good… really good… they know how to herd hordes

  28. Yoshua says:×900

    The real US employment ratio is falling. The economy can’t cope with a rising real employment ratio, since the energy supplies are no longer there to support it.

    Employees consume more, which puts a pressure on energy supplies, and in turn leads to energy price spikes. The energy price spikes lead to economic destruction and kill employment.

    The Central Banks are tightening to help destroy economic activity…to lower the pressure on falling energy supplies.

    • Rodster says:

      I totally agree that the economy can’t handle the extra workers. Now that gas prices at most US pumps are averaging $4.75 it dents any of the pay raises workers have received. Raise wages even more? That will lead to more inflation.

      Truckers are now having to deal with higher fuel costs. When do truckers reach the breaking point because most of them own mortgages on those trucks? No trucks means NO economy. No trucks means fuel can’t get to petrol stations. No trucks means food delivery stops. No trucks means restaurants won’t get their supplies to stay in business.

      Trucks are the lifeblood of industrial civilization. Most people just take IC for granted like turning on a faucet, expecting water too flow out until one day it doesn’t. That’s when the panic starts.

      • CTG says:

        Trucks are the lifeblood of industrial civilization. Most people just take IC for granted like turning on a faucet, expecting water too flow out until one day it doesn’t. That’s when the panic starts.

        Compare now to 2015, it is seriously near. We don’t see so many things breaking down until now.

      • i keep trying to make the same point

        no fresh water in, no wastes out

        civilisation ends

        • Sam says:

          Everything seems to still be working fine

          • of course it is

            collapse won’t come all at once for everyone, but will run out in various places

            Sri Lanka, as a complete nation only has $50m in the bank—which means they have effectively collapsed in economic terms.

            they are rioting in protest, just as i’ve always said people will—they have no other option.

          • Rodster says:

            As the saying goes, “this will continue until they can’t”. So now is the time to take heed of the warnings and prepare because the time is coming when there will be more than just toilet paper runs.

    • The chart is showing that it is really the employment to population level that matters. This shows that the economy has been shrinking, indirectly as a result of the COVID response scare tactics that held back demand and helped hide the shortage of energy products.

      Rising interest rates is certain to reduce employment further, to match the inadequate energy supply. It is hard to see a way out of the situation, other than the economy contracting greatly.

      • Rodster says:

        “This shows that the economy has been shrinking, indirectly as a result of the COVID response scare tactics”

        Which leads me to believe that as rioting and civil unrest takes hold, expect more lockdowns. Lockdowns solved the civil unrest in Taiwan.

  29. Harry McGibbs says:

    “If you aren’t an oil baron, I have bad news: it’s as if oil is trading somewhere between $150 and $275 a barrel.

    “The oil market is projecting a false sense of stability when it comes to energy inflation. Instead, the real economy is suffering a much stronger price shock than it appears, because fuel prices are rising much faster than crude, and that matters for monetary policy.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “With governments globally grappling with surging electricity prices as the war in Ukraine strains fossil fuel supply chains, authorities are examining almost every possibility to reduce power demand.

      “In Tokyo, officials are urging residents to watch an hour less TV a day, switch off the keep-warm mode on rice cookers, and refrain from using heater functions on toilet seats until winter.”

      • Xabier says:

        Thank you for the comic interlude from Japan.

        I hope Zen Master Tim is not distressed by such draconian restrictions!

        • drb753 says:

          The no heat on the toilet seats is a drastic measure.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I may turn on a couple of space heaters — in addition to burning 5 tonnes of coal this winter. Cuz

          • Xabier says:

            I have to say, that’s the one which shook me to the core. The hardship!

            But perhaps Master Tim generates internal heat from his daily meditation……

            • Tim Groves says:

              Contrary to popular belief, we do have a toilet seat at our place. But it isn’t heated. That would interfere with my concentration and make it impossible to reach satori.

              The traditional Japanese toilet is a hole in the floor that the user squats over in a skiing pose. That’s a bit hard on the thighs, but has the advantage in hygiene terms of being non-contact. Not very popular these days, but many older houses still have them. Mr. Crapper’s invention came relatively late to these islands.

        • Harry lives in the Hebrides

          where inside toilets are for softies

          visits to the outside toilet there are part of the training for the SAS

          (And thats in midsummer!!)

          • Harry McGibbs says:

            Aye – ’tis true. The adjoining cow-field is all the lavatory I need and a handful of thistles does well enough as paper.

            • and the midgies feast on exposed flesh

              not a pretty sight

            • Tim Groves says:

              In days of old
              When knights were bold
              And lavatories weren’t invented
              They wiped their arse
              Upon the grass
              And walked away contented.

              —Robert Burns ?

      • Jane says:

        “refrain from using heater functions on toilet seats until winter.””

        Perfect example of why “load” is the central problem in our cluelessly wasteful society!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh … so 6 hours of Tee Vee per day….. still plenty to promote the boosters and get decent uptake

      • Hubbs says:

        Heated toilet seats? As energy became cheaper and more readily accessible, the ways to waste it became more frivolous. And now, it’s payback time.

        • Xabier says:

          I had trouble containing myself when a friend proudly showed me his new £100k bathroom (very fancy rare marble) with a state of the art Japanese loo:

          ‘Only one like this in the whole of the UK!’

          I made appropriate noises and gestures of being impressed.

          Tempting to ask for a demonstration of the Oriental Wonder……

    • I think that a big issue is the diesel problems caused by Europe’s refusal of imported diesel from Russia. There is no substitute. It sends the price of imported diesel very high, even for the US Northeast.

  30. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Dollar Strength Bucks Inflation Woes…

    “The dollar is reaching multidecade highs against its trading partners, even with U.S. inflation at its highest level in nearly 40 years. The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the currency against a basket of others, is reaching highs unseen since 2002.”

  31. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Eskom Generation Chief Quits Amid Spiraling South Africa Outages.

    “The top executive for power production at South Africa’s Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. has resigned as the fragile electricity grid struggles to meet demand, threatening economic growth… The utility announced nationwide power cuts on Monday.”

  32. Harry McGibbs says:

    “‘Stop asking why’: Shanghai tightens COVID lockdown, Beijing keeps testing.

    “Shanghai authorities were tightening the city-wide COVID lockdown they imposed more than a month ago, prolonging into late May an ordeal that China’s capital Beijing was desperate to avoid by turning mass testing into an almost daily routine.”

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Southeast Asia will face a “big risk” of social unrest if there are “big surges” in food prices, an ASEAN economist at Bank of America Securities told CNBC.

    “That’s because, relative to other countries, food consumption accounts for a large proportion of what people spend on in countries like the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam, said Mohamed Faiz Nagutha on Friday.”

  34. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Cotton prices hit 11-year high on possible India export ban.

    “Cotton prices have soared to their highest levels since May 2011 as concerns grow over a possible export ban by top exporter India and a severe drought hitting U.S. yields.”

  35. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Troops rescue outgoing Sri Lanka PM as houses torched in deadly night of unrest.

    “Sri Lanka has deployed thousands of troops and police to enforce a curfew after five people were killed in the worst violence in weeks of protests over an unprecedented economic crisis.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Sri Lanka stops supplying gas for domestic use.

      “Amid the ongoing economic crisis, Sri Lanka’s leading liquefied petroleum gas supplier Litro Gas Lanka Limited on Monday said that they are unable to supply gas to domestic consumers until new stocks arrive.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Sri Lanka has granted its military and police emergency powers to arrest people without warrants after a day of violence that killed seven people…

        “According to the latest decision, the military can detain people for up to 24 hours before handing them to the police, while any private property can be searched by forces, the government said in a gazette notification on Tuesday.”

      • Homes will have to go back to traditional fuels for cooking. This will be difficult in apartments, I expect.

        • Artleads says:

          For my heritage, the traditional fuels were wood and charcoal.

        • neil says:

          As well as being unhealthy. Smoke particles cause lung problems, especially in the young

          • Xabier says:

            Although this is greatly exaggerated, in my opinion: even though asthmatic, I can breath wood smoke, even from green garden waste, without any problems.

            I find a well-ventilated room heated by a stove much easier on my lungs than central heating, in fact.

            And anyone who can’t use a wood stove safely without burning their house down should be taken out and shot, for all our sakes!

            Everything that promotes autonomy and any degree of private happiness will be demonised: wood stoves, pets, kitchen gardens…….

      • Xabier says:

        I wonder what access they have to paraffin? I should have thought that would be quite common?

  36. Xabier says:

    There is an excellent article on vitamin D3 on Robert Malone’s substack channel, not to be missed.

    Interesting background info on how it was buried.

    More mis-deeds of St Anthony the False…….

    • Jane says:

      Can you provide a link?

      • Xabier says:

        Sorry, I never save links. Just search ‘Robert Malone substack’ (probably not on Google though!

      • Concluding paragraph:

        Many people (and physicians) rely on the CDC and NIH to guide them in healthcare and wellness decisions. It is way past time that these organizations step up to the plate and do their job, and stop relying on the unscientific biases of highly influential bureaucrats. That job being to protect the health of the public. Not advancing the interests of the pharmaceutical industry and its shareholders.

        • Xabier says:

          Malone is correct.

          And here in the UK, the MHRA regulators say that they are ‘delighted to be working with our brilliant bio-sciences sector’: inappropriate language from a regulator, one would have thought.

          Not watch dogs, zealously safeguarding the public and the integrity of trials, as we like to imagine, but more or less full business partners with profit-seeking corporations.

          On the subject of Vit D3, etc, I can confirm that it – with some other supplements – appears to have almost completely eliminated the very severe respiratory problems I was experiencing from air pollution.

          I am unable to eat any fish, due to allergy, and otherwise my diet has been unchanged. It took several months to achieve this result.

  37. CTG says:

    Guys…. I have a question to ask (to see if it is common in homo sapiens and across education, culture and religion)

    When you talk to someone (who is not aware or awake) and the topic has one person from a big shot university like Ivy Leagues or Cambridge/Oxford making a statement, that statement, in the eyes of those who are still sleeping is always correct and you are wrong. Do you see this? Even that person is just a social science guy talking about vaccine and if he is from Harvard, then he will be 100% correct and everyone believes him.

    Perhaps that is the reason why modern home sapiens collapse……

    • The whole system depends on grant money and on the telling narratives that citizens are likely to like. The whole university system depends on it, as does the political system and the news system. It becomes impossible to hear anything other than the result people want to hear, even if it is science fiction.

    • Tim Groves says:

      A lot of people instinctively “believe” experts and other authority figures must be correct and that the laity must be incorrect if they disagree with these authorities.

      On another thread, Norman just dismissed my opinion regarding mega-droughts by quoting an opinion published in the LA Times, as if being published there gave information a luster of authority that my beautifully reasoned argument lacked.

      Norman isn’t sleeping, though. He’s hypnotized in a consensus trance.

      I’ve been aware of the concept of consensus trance since reading an article in the Whole Earth Review around thirty years ago. But it has become really in-yer-face since the Covid Caper started two years ago.

      There’s a 2015 book on the subject, which I haven’t read, but it looks very interesting.

      “Most of us live in consensus trance, and under “most” I mean almost all of us. Consensus trance is a state of consciousness produced by ideological blunting of our intellect through intensive manipulation (brainwashing), which forces us to accept false conception of reality. And the worst is that we very rarely know if the thoughts in our head are ours or have been skillfully suggested by someone or something else (e.g., subliminals, which can be audio, hidden behind music, or visual, airbrushed into a picture, flashed on a screen so fast that you don’t consciously see them, or cleverly incorporated into a picture or design). In the entire history of man, no one has ever been brainwashed and realized, or believed, that he had been brainwashed. This book is composed of the articles written by different authors at different times, but together they present the Big Picture of mass and individual mind control and its various techniques.”

  38. Kim says:

    A spreadsheet of fire events at food processing and storage and fertilizer facilities in Canada-USA late 2019-present. If this is accurate and complete (admittedly unlikely), 2022 may have been a busy year for this kind of thing.

    At the very least, the government has done a wonderful job in making us so distrustful of it that we would even discuss this, and that is a data point in itself.

  39. Student says:

    Please, just add another adverse event to the long list of adverse events for Covid-19 ‘vaccines’.

    • drb753 says:

      A friend in Bologna, quadruple vaxxed, developed pulmonary fibrosis within a year, and he is now waiting for a transplant.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        No point in giving him a transplant… he’s got no immune system left

        Sit him on the sofa and feed him pizza and beer for every meal and let him watch CNN round the clock

    • I think that this relates to the same one week we saw previously, calculated as the difference of cumulative amounts.

      It seems like problems could creep in, in one-week numbers (especially ones with a -1 as one of the death counts). It seems like a longer period of observation is needed.

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    MOREON… is correct MORE

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Government makes strongest hint yet at fourth vaccine dose

    As expected the injections are causing the mutations but the MOREONS are so stooopid that they will never understand that… so they will rush for the next booster

    Stooopid f789ing dunces

    • Lastcall says:

      2 deaths ‘with’ virus; both in 80’s.
      What a scam; life expectancy is 80 for NZ males.
      1200 people per week are expected to die here as a matter of Stats.
      Wonder what cause of death actually was?

    • Fred says:

      Question for FE:

      – To the tune of “Where have all the flowers gone”

      Where have all the bodies gone?

      Hey FE, last time I did the calc the CEP was about 120 million deaths behind schedule. Even with those helpful Russkies lending a hand, it’s probably 150 million now.

      Care to adjust your prophecy, or at least the timeline?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Bossche says it will get underway within 2 months — that’s his estimate.

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Hard to imagine this being allowed — unless the PR Team orchestrated it


    Australia still rolling out drs onto the media to coerce for “boosters”, listen to this:

    “What we are getting sick and tired of is having to speak with families at the bedside and dealing with the regret of not being fully vaccinated,”

    They switched the comments off too, “trust the science”, don’t question it, insane.

    • Xabier says:

      This is getting to be like the death bed confessions and recantations that Catholic priests love: ‘I left the Church, sinned all my life and so deeply regret it: receive me back, Father!’

      Only in this case, the priest/doctor is gloating at another anti- vaxx ‘sinner’ going to Hell……

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Fresh Hell

    Next up – tranny drag shows…

    • Lastcall says:

      Whaaaaaat the feck!
      We got plenty of stupid compulsory theatre here in NZ

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Horsemen are getting ready – I can hear them

    • Sam says:

      Yes possibly but with their financial manipulation they seem to keep this thing going. How much longer???

      • CTG says:

        The end game for financial manipulation is high inflation or hyperinflation. Rules are changed, bend or ignored but ultimately, inflation will creep in until it cannot hold anymore.

        Do you all see high inflation? If yes, then probably the end is near. When this arrive, usually it will come all of a sudden. The inflation will be flat and then goes up slowly and then whoosh it goes to the moon. It has been like that for centuries and it will continue to act this way. No exceptions

        • Sam says:

          Yea I’m stateside and I’m see inflation for sure! Gas is up housing is ridiculous and food prices are way up. Although they are telling us that food is coming down

          • CTG says:

            You daily chocolate ration will be increased from 22 grams to 20 grams and you will be happy

        • Herbie Ficklestein says:

          CTG, agree, that’s how it works…it will get out of control.
          The great reset and you will be happy or dead.

    • Xabier says:

      But who selected Kissinger in the first place? An onion has many layers…..

      Oh if only these nasty old men, greedy for power, shrivelled in soul and mediocre in intellect (ever read Kissinger?), would die: but then we shall have their anointed heirs to deal with.

      • i maintain a golden rule of never opening eddylinks

        but Kissinger as an ‘elder’?

        i go along with the elder nonsense for morning amusement–(when there’s nothing better on offer)

        Kissinger ?

        C’mon—you can do better than that.

    • I certainly would consider Kissinger “an elder.” He has been a household name for decades.

      This is a direct link to National Security Study Memorandum 200, issues on April 24, 1974 :

      It doesn’t sound all that offensive, the way it is written. This memo was written after the US had substantially reduced its population rate, using birth control pills and by giving attention to the problem of rising population. The United States was also in the midst of the 1974 oil price spike and concern that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely.

      After asking for population projections, the memorandum says:

      The study should then offer possible courses of action for the United States in dealing with population matters abroad, particularly in developing countries, with special attention to these questions:
      –What, if any, new initiatives by the United States are needed to focus international attention on the population problem?
      –Can technological innovations or development reduce growth or ameliorate its effects?
      –Could the United States improve its assistance in the population field and if so, in what form and through which agencies — bilateral, multilateral, private?

      Retrospectively, it seems like “education for mothers” has been the primary approach that has been used. It hasn’t worked. At the same time, there have been efforts at sanitation and the use of antibiotics and vaccines. The result has led to more children living to maturity and a bigger problem than previously.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Crispen calls him the capo of the Rothschilds… so perhaps not an Elder… he may just be their Psaki….

    • Tim Groves says:

      National Security Study Memorandum
      NSSM 200
      Implications of Worldwide Population Growth For U.S. Security and Overseas Interests (THE KISSINGER REPORT)
      December 10, 1974

      Henry was extremely concerned about the population explosion and was offering useful suggestions and a much needed strategy to avoid face-ripping.

      So this memo could be termed the Compassionate Population Growth Reduction Plan (CPGRP).

      • Student says:

        I think that the real problem has been never talk openly about these invevitable consequences of leaving the population grow without any control on a finite planet.
        As similarly it has been a problem never talk openly of consuming finite resources (which cannot be recycled, like fossil fuels) without control of a finite planet.
        And that the kind of resources that can be recycled need anyway adequate kind of energy.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Lots of people in the comments are upset by that memo … I guess they think population should be allowed to grow till we implode – being a finite planet and all.

        Given they did nothing to stop it — because they know what happens if you stop it (see China Japan)…

        So we are going to implode hahaha TINA

    • Jane says:

      Eddy, I am more like to open your links if you state briefly what they are about.

Comments are closed.