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It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.
We are now in a period of price conflict. Oil and other energy prices have remained too low for producers since at least mid-2014. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels has led to higher costs of extraction. Often, the tax needs of governments of oil exporting countries are higher as well, leading to even higher required prices for producers if they are to continue to produce oil and raise their production. Thus, producers truly require higher prices.
Governments of countries affected by this inflation in price are quite disturbed: Higher prices for energy products mean higher prices for all goods and services. This makes citizens very unhappy because wages do not rise to compensate for this inflation. Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.
It is my expectation that these and other issues will lead to a very strangely behaving world economy in the months and years ahead. The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics. With less energy, it will start “coming apart.” World trade will increasingly falter. Fossil fuel prices will be volatile, but not necessarily very high. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues I see.
[1] The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.
Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy. In my analysis, I use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP because it is not distorted by the rise and fall of the US dollar relative to other currencies.
The reason such a high correlation exists is because it takes energy to perform each activity that contributes to GDP, such as lighting a room or transporting goods. Energy consumption which is cheap to produce and growing rapidly in quantity is ideal for increasing energy productivity, since it allows factories to be built cheaply and raw materials and finished goods to be transported at low cost.
Humans are part of the economy. Food is the energy product that humans require. Reducing food supply by 20% or 40% or 50% cannot be expected to work well. The economy suffers the same difficulty.
In recent years, depletion has been making the extraction of fossil fuel resources increasingly expensive. One issue is that the resources that were easiest to extract and closest to where they were needed were extracted first, leaving the highest cost resources for extraction later. Another issue is that with a growing population, the governments of oil exporting countries require higher tax revenue to support the overall needs of their countries.
Intermittent wind and solar are not substitutes for fossil fuels because they are not available when they are needed. If several months’ worth of storage could be added, the total cost would be so high that these energy sources would have no chance of being competitive. I recently wrote about some of the issues with renewables in Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.
Rising population is a second problem leading to falling efficiency. In order to feed, clothe and house a rising population, a growing quantity of food must be produced from essentially the same amount of arable land. More water for the rising population is required for the rising population, often obtained by deeper wells or desalination. Clearly, the need to use increased materials and labor to work around problems caused by rising world population adds another layer of inefficiency.
If we also add the cost of attempting to work around pollution issues, this further adds another layer of inefficiency in the use of energy supplies.
More technology is not a solution, either, because adding any type of complexity requires energy to implement. For example, adding machines to replace current workers requires the use of energy products to make and operate the machines. Moving production to cheaper locations overseas (another form of complexity) requires energy for the transport of goods from where they are transported to where they are used.
Figure 2 shows that the world economy still requires more energy to produce increasing GDP, even with the gains achieved in technology and efficiency.
Because of energy limits, the world economy is trying to change from a “growth mode” to a “shrinkage mode.” This is something very much like the collapse of many ancient civilizations, including the fall of Rome in 165 to 197 CE. Historically, such collapses have unfolded over a period of years or decades.
[2] In the past, the growth rate of GDP has exceeded that of energy consumption. As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, we should expect this situation to reverse: The rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption.
Figure 3 shows that, historically, world economic growth has been slightly higher than the growth in energy consumption. This growth in energy consumption is based on total consumption of fossil fuels and renewables, as calculated by BP.
In fact, based on the discussion in Section [1], this is precisely the situation we should expect: GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section [1] also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.
[3] Interest rates play an important role in encouraging the development of energy resources. Generally falling interest rates are very beneficial; rising interest rates are quite detrimental. As the economy shifts toward shrinkage, the pattern we can expect is higher interest rates, rather than lower. As the limits of energy extraction are hit, these higher rates will tend to make the economy shrink even faster than it would otherwise shrink.
Part of what has allowed growing energy consumption in the period shown in Figures 2 and 3 is rising debt levels at generally lower interest rates. Falling interest rates together with debt availability make investment in factories and mines more affordable. They also help citizens seeking to buy a new car or home because the lower monthly payments make these items more affordable. Demand for energy products tends to rise, allowing the prices of commodities to rise higher than they would otherwise rise, thus making their production more profitable. This encourages more fossil fuel extraction and more development of renewables.
Once the economy starts to shrink, debt levels seem likely to shrink because of defaults and because of reluctance of lenders to lend, for fear of defaults. Interest rates will tend to rise, partly because of the higher inflation rates and partly because of the higher level of expected defaults. This debt pattern in turn will reinforce the tendency toward lower GDP growth compared to energy consumption growth. This is a major reason that raising interest rates now is likely to push the economy downward.
[4] With fewer goods and services produced by the economy, the world economy must eventually shrink. We should not be surprised if this shrinkage in some ways echoes the shrinkage that took place in the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 shutdowns.
The GDP of the world economy is the goods and services produced by the world economy. If the economy starts to shrink, total world GDP will necessarily fall.
What happens in the future may echo what has happened in the past.
Central bank officials felt it was important to stop inflation in oil prices (and indirectly in food prices) back in the 2004 to 2006 period. This indirectly led to the 2008-2009 recession as parts of the world debt bubble started to collapse and many jobs were lost. We should not be surprised if a much worse version of this happens in the future.
The 2020 shutdowns were characterized in most news media as a response to Covid-19. Viewed on an overall system basis, however, they really were a response to many simultaneous problems:
- Covid-19
- A hidden shortage of fossil fuels that was not reflected as high enough prices for producers to ramp up production
- Hidden financial problems that threatened a new version of the 2008 financial collapse
- Factories in many parts of the world that were operating at far less than capacity
- Workers demonstrating in the streets with respect to low wages and low pensions
- Airlines with financial problems
- Citizens frustrated by long commutes
- Very many old, sick people in care homes of various types, passing around illnesses
- An outsized medical system that still desired to increase profits
- Politicians who wanted a way to better control their populations–perhaps rationing of output would work around an inadequate total supply of goods and services
Shutting down non-essential activities for a while would temporarily reduce demand for oil and other energy products, making it easier for the rest of the system to appear profitable. It would give an excuse to increase borrowing (and money printing) to hide the financial problems for a while longer. It would keep people at home, reducing the need for oil and other energy products, hiding the fossil fuel shortage for a while longer. It would force the medical system to reorganize, offering more telephone visits and laying off non-essential workers. Many individual citizens could reduce time lost to commuting, thanks to new work-from-home rules and internet connections. The homebuilding and home remodeling industries were stimulated, offering work to those who had been laid off.
The impacts of the shutdowns were greatest on poor people in poor countries, such as those in Central and South America. For example, many people in the vacation and travel industries were laid off in poor countries. People making fancy clothing for people going to conferences and weddings were laid off, as were people raising flowers for fancy events. These people had trouble finding new employment. They are at increased risk of dying, either from Covid-19 or inadequate nutrition, making them susceptible to other illnesses.
We should not be surprised if some near-term problems echo what has happened in the past. Debt defaults and falling home prices are very real possibilities, for example. Also, making a new crisis a huge focal point and scaring the population into staying at home has proven to be a huge success in temporarily reducing energy consumption without actual rationing. Some people believe that monkeypox or a climate change crisis will be the next area of focus in an attempt to reduce energy consumption, and thus lower oil prices.
[5] There is likely to be more conflict in a world with not enough goods and services to go around.
With a shrinking amount of finished goods and services, we should not be surprised if we see more conflict in the world. Many wars are resource wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with other countries indirectly involved, certainly could be considered a resource war. Russia wants higher prices for its exports of many kinds, including energy exports. I wrote about the conflict issue in a post I wrote in April 2022: The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead.
World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.
[6] We seem to be facing a new set of problems in addition to the problems that gave rise to the Covid-19 shutdowns. These are likely to shape how any new crisis plays out.
Some recently added problems include the following:
- Debt has risen to a high level, relative to 2008. This debt will be harder to repay with higher interest rates.
- The US dollar is very high relative to other currencies. The high level of the US dollar causes problems for borrowers from outside the US in repaying their loans. It also makes energy prices very high outside the US.
- Oil, coal and natural gas are all in short supply world-wide, leading to falling productivity of the overall system Item 1. If extraction is to continue, prices need to be much higher.
- Difficulties with broken supply lines make it hard to ramp up production of manufactured goods of many kinds.
- Inadequate labor supply is an increasing problem. Baby boomers are now retiring; not enough young people are available to take their place. Increased illness, associated with Covid-19 and its vaccines, is also an issue.
These issues point to a situation where rising interest rates seem likely to send the world economy downward because of debt defaults and failing businesses of many kinds.
The high dollar relative to other currencies leads to the potential for the system to break apart under stress. Alternatively, the US dollar may play a smaller role in international trade than in the past.
[7] Many parts of the economy are likely to find that the promised payments to be made to them cannot really take place.
We have been taught that money is a store of value. We have also been taught that government promises, such as pensions, unemployment insurance and health insurance can be counted on. If there are fewer goods and services available in total, the whole system must change to reflect the fact that there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. There may not even be enough food to go around.
As the world economy hits limits, we cannot assume that the money we have in the bank will really be able to purchase the goods we want in the future. The goods may not be available to purchase, or the government may put a restriction (such as $200 per week) on how much we can withdraw from our account each week, or inflation may make goods we currently buy unaffordable.
If we think about the situation, the world will be producing fewer goods and services each year, regardless of what promises that have been made in the past might say. For example, the number of bushels of wheat available worldwide will start falling, as will the number of new cars and the number of computers. Somehow, the goods and services people expected to be available will start disappearing. If the problem is inflation, the affordable quantity will start to fall.
We don’t know precisely what will happen, but these are some ideas, especially as higher interest rates become a problem:
- Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.
- Employees and governments will also default on debts. Banks will have difficulty remaining solvent.
- Pension plans will have nowhere nearly enough money to pay promised pensions. Either they will default or prices will rise so high that the pensions do not really purchase the goods that recipients hoped for.
- The international system of trade is likely to start withering away. Eventually, most goods will be locally produced with whatever resources are available.
- Many government agencies will become inadequately funded and fail. Intergovernmental agencies, such as the European Union and the United Nations, are especially vulnerable.
- Governments are likely to reduce services provided because tax revenues are too low. Even if more money is printed, it cannot buy goods that are not there.
- Citizens may become so unhappy with their governments that they overthrow them. Simpler, cheaper governmental systems, offering fewer services, may follow.
[8] It is likely that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, energy prices will not rise very high, for very long.
We are likely dealing with an economy that is basically falling apart. Factories will produce less because they cannot obtain financing. Purchasers of finished goods and services will have difficulty finding jobs that pay well and loans based on this employment. These effects will tend to keep commodity prices too low for producers. While there may be temporary spurts of higher prices, finished goods made with high-cost energy products will be too expensive for most citizens to afford. This will tend to push prices back down again.
[9] Conclusion.
We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.
Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer reviewed by others within their own ivory towers. Economists, politicians and central bankers don’t care about the physics of the situation. Even those basing their analysis on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) tend to focus on only a narrow portion of what I explained in Section [1]. Once researchers have invested a huge amount of time and effort in one direction, they cannot consider the possibility that their approach may be seriously incomplete.
Unfortunately, the physics-based approach I am using indicates that the world’s economy is likely to change dramatically for the worse in the months and years ahead. Economies, in general, cannot last forever. Populations outgrow their resource bases; resources become too depleted. In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, not unlike ecosystems, plants and animals. They can only exist for a limited time before they die or end their operation. They tend to be replaced by new, similar dissipative structures.
While the current world economy cannot last indefinitely, humans have continued to exist through many bottlenecks in the past, including ice ages. It is likely that some humans, perhaps in mutated form, will make it through the current bottleneck. These humans will likely create a new economy that is better adapted to the Earth as it changes.
Showering in Cold Water Causing Heart Attacks?
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/mmr-covid-vaccines-kids-cold-shower-heart-attacks-mary-polly
What about those gay bday orgeee parties where they fling urine on each other?
Next up:
‘Excitement about the summer vacation can cause heart attacks in kids!’
One very stupit question for anyone or FE in particular – I thought we have a short supply of diesel in EU and it is also very expensive. Why did the farmer spent so much money (or diesel) on protesting?
A very good question.
And I thought Sri Lanka had fuel for only essential services .. so is the country completely shut down … how do people go to work … schools closed I imagine… how are people cooking when there is no gas … are they burning their furniture?
We went from burning the PMs house to silence — I guess they decided to just accept the situation and stop rioting….
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=sri+lanka&iar=news&ia=news
I think diesel is expensive but not generally in a shortage (not yet anyway).
any potential shortages are irrelevant.
the bottom line is that these farmers are so much against what they are protesting, that they are risking a lot to do these protests, giving up their spare time and expending energy, and are very willing to even sacrifice some of their money to be able to make their protests known.
there is an English (not just English?) saying:
put your money where your mouth is.
CTG –
if first cousins marry, they each have 4 grandparents but share 2/4.
if second cousins marry, they each have 8 great grandparents and share 2/8, so MUCH MORE genetic diversity.
societies seem to discourage first cousins from marrying but not second etc.
are the genetic problems mostly in the first cousin marriages? yes.
imagine…
a medieval village with 1,000 population.
a century later maybe the population is 1,100.
how?
most of the marriages would be second third etc cousins.
so…
all of us have a long chain of ancestors who were born from second third fourth cousin marriages.
yes?
By George, he’s got it! Well done, David.
CTG’s “paradox” is valid only if everybody’s ancestors were genetic “strangers” or “non relatives” to each other when they reproduced. If that was the case, we would each need to have billions and billions—no; make that trillions and trillions—of remote ancestors—far too many to worship at even the largest of Shinto shrines in the case of the Japanese.
But since there are a lot of fourth cousins, third cousins, second cousins, first cousins getting together and producing offspring—take the Darwins, Charles and Emma, for instance—and since a certain amount of incest has always gone on despite the taboos, it is plain that, as you put it so succinctly, all of us have a long chain of ancestors who were born from second third fourth cousin marriages.
There is a traditional Irish song that makes the point well:
She swore by grass, she swore by corn
That her true love had never been born
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
He said, Young maid, you’re swearing wrong
For six fine children you had born
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
If you be a man of noble fame
You’ll tell to me the father o’ them
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
There’s two of them by your Uncle Dan
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
Another two by your brother John
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
Another two by your Father dear
At the well below the valley o
Green grows the lily o
Right among the bushes o
there’s some fine humanity in them there lyrics!
If you are into mathematics, which I did before, going down from 2^66 (66 generations) for a 2000-year history down to 2^33 is a long way down but not long enough. 2^33 is still 8 billion people
8 billion people in year 0000. You need to bring it down to 500m people at the year 0000. That is 2^29
Bringing down from 2^66 to 2^39 is an impossible task.
p.s. second cousin marriage – instead of severe genetic defects in 2-3 generations, it can show up after 5-6 generations. Not much difference.
p.s. I have done the simulation for first continuous cousin marriage, it only brings down from 2^66 to probably 2^60.
Let us rest this case… It is either you see it or you don’t.
Why rest this case?
There is no need to be so defensive? Nobody is attacking you. You are making a pretty big assertion, and you seem pretty sure that you are correct.
Other people have disputed your assertion, because it is counterintuitive to them. That’s totally natural. If you are putting out your opinions, you should welcome such disputes. And you should be able to explain the thinking underlying your assertions in such a way as to overcome their objections so that they can see what is so clear to you.
Would you prefer other people just ignored you? Would you prefer that they pretend to agree with you without understanding why you think you understand?
p.s. second cousin marriage – severe genetic defects exist obviously. I know people who suffer from them. If they are very serious, their “owners” are eliminated from the gene pool, while those who’s genetic defects are less serious get to pass their genes on to the next generation. I don’t know if you’ve taken this into account in your simulation.
I’m not very “up” on mathematics or genetics, so I am sure that my objections don’t invalidate your assertion.
But I put “second cousin marriage birth defects” into Google, and the first thing that came up was:
“First cousins only have a risk of 4-6% of having a child with a disability. This means that 94-96% of the time they have a healthy child. The risk for second cousins to have a child with a disability is even lower. Their risk is just a bit higher than the 3% risk that all unrelated couples have.”
https://www.thetech.org/ask-a-geneticist/risk-second-cousins-having-child-disability
If you are correct, I’d like to know about it so that I can share in the enlightenment. Don’t let me continue to wallow in ignorance by saying, in passive aggressive tones, “It’s either see it or you don’t.”
Tim,
In order to prevent anyone (not you) who comes in and making a mountain out of a molehill, it is best that if someone who interested in this to email me directly and discuss. Gail’s forum is not meant for this. I may be able to get someone interest.
You need to have a good grasp or mathematics and biology to get into this matter. I wanted to talk to friends who have PhDs in mathematics but all I get from them is “I am too tired to think”.
Genetic disease compounds. Spread over 100 years, still ok. If you think that marrying first cousin or second cousin for every single generation over 5000 years, do you think it is possible? Human “history” stretches into 100,000 years. Do you think, even for one single second that it is possible to have second cousin marriage for every single generation for 10,000 years without having any issues?
in the porch of my local church, there used to be a large board, on which was inscribed a list of people ‘forbidden to marry’–i cant recall it all, but certainly had
first cousins
brother and sisters
uncles and aunts (to nephews and nieces)
parent and child
and a few other i forget
the point being that the risks were well known since ancient times
not that it prevented it altogether of course.
“first cousins”
Those Islamickers are doing it all the time.
I even did read that the English Queen and Prince Philip were some type of cousins.
they were common descendants of Queen Victoria, so about 4 x removed, which was ok
I thought the queen and philip were siblings.
No webbed feet in the family, or anything like that?
well i swim 3 miles a week
so there might be something in that
spot norm
https://www.shelteringarms.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/Cranes-Mill-Water-Aerobics.jpg
That’s cuz the royal family had a monopoly on all that.
eddy
you made a comment without mentioning vaxxing
is everything OK?
Please run your model again with the following boundary condition:
– Prior to 1800 a lot of people had 6 to 10 children
– Prior to ? it was quite common that one man impregnates tens or hundrets of women because of circumstances (*cough*)
Having 6 to 10 children is an excellent way of keeping a lid on bad genes because it provides more opportunities for fitter combinations to arise in the next generation. The least fit offspring tend not to breed at all. The most fit tend to breed more.
My paternal grandmother and grandfather produced 17 children, of which, I believe, ten reached adulthood and 6 had children of their own. So nearly two-thirds of the of spring were the end of the line.
Please, CTG, talk about the loneliness of the energy conscious. Statistics is not your forte. But I will give you an exercise. On average, how long ago did you have the largest number of ancestors? Assume one generation 25 years, and homo sapiens having started with 10000 individuals 70000 years ago. Of course the pattern of population increase is crucial, but assume linear population increase over time.
drb753, MM, let us keep this out from Gails’ forum. Email me at chngtg at gmail
One of the things that perk my interest was that in this part of the world, when it comes to ancestors, from the family tree of my family and my friends, it ends at my grandparents. Practically anyone that I know, their ancestors stories stop at gran parents or great grandparents when it was traced back to China (for the Chinese here and India (for Indians). It is always a dead end.
When I did research on this issue, it always stops at around 1800s. Before 1800s, there are no publications that I could find that really satisfy me.
To me, tracing back to 1800s is not a problem. It is still 200 years ago only
I took out pencil papers, Excel Spreadsheet, programming, etc to try to disprove myself.
Until today, I still cannot disprove myself. Tried to connect to 4 people with PhD on mathematics (my close friends), just got rejected with weird reasons (not interested to help me understand where I go wrong – similar to those who are not interested to know about the side-effects of the vaccines)
Putting myself here as the sole person on earth, just me alone… I know that I am 100% correct (without any doubt), regardless of first, second or third cousin marriage, I have 2^10 ancestors 300 years ago. 1024. If everyone marries first cousin, it reduces to 256 only. Still a lot of people, viewing that earth population is supposedly very low thousands of years ago.
“Assume one generation 25 years, and homo sapiens having started with 10000 individuals 70000 years ago. Of course the pattern of population increase is crucial, but assume linear population increase over time.”
Done a simulation on that. 10,000 individuals are not sufficient to last 1000 years. It just dies out. No matter what parameter I change, it either boom-bust or bust…
Let us focus on energy and COVID and financial issues.
p.s. I was an engineer and physics/mathematics/computing are my strong points.
Thanks for this CTG. It’s a fascinating insight that you may have had. Most of us, I am certain, have never even imagined the possibility that our ancestors only go back a few generations or a few dozen. Even Bible literalists consider we go back 6,000 years, which would be 300 generations or so.
I will email you about this if I can think of something sensible enough to say about it.
“Done a simulation on that. 10,000 individuals are not sufficient to last 1000 years. It just dies out. No matter what parameter I change, it either boom-bust or bust…”
Calhoun mouse “utopia” springs to mind.
Could it be some unknown factors in genetics coming into play? Say “soft coded” epigenetic “mutations” transitioning into “hard coded” genes.
If one assumes there to be some “give” in how the genes are transferred between generations I speculate that the combinatorics will “explode”.
Add in some viral, bacterial, random and radiation caused mutations on top of the sexual transfers.
There’s just too many factors at play to assume it is a rigid rule bound system.
Thoughts on this?
Kowalainen – to answer your questions…
We have no ancestors…. That is sort of a mathematical certainty to me.
I am more than happy if anyone can correct me in a logical manner, not like the “My body My Choice” type of “err… do you agree that government should force vaccine of people”
Incest will not bring a genetical problem into the germline that wasn’t there before. It is not the source of hereditary sin. It only brings problems for the following generation but not to further offspring. As soon as a child has parents with a diverse set of chromosomes the ill gene is back on an chance of 25% again. This is the case looking to the individual risk.
If you look at groups with incestous tradition they will acquire a similar set of genes as long as they continue their tradition. This will express ill or unadvantageous phenotypes that are considered to get lost by selection. It will also express advantageous phenotypes, what you want in breeding animals for example.
The idea of eugenicists is that modern life leads to an unhealthy selection. Maybe some wanted to breed back the Nephilim as they tried with the aurochs. Or it has been a stupid argument in support of the redistribution of wealth .
The question you raised is especially interesting in this forum as implicitly most people here would agree that we will face a genetical bottleneck soon. It is a likely consequence of Gails studies.
So there is the idea that the vaccination tries to support the carriers of a specific gene that has proven to be especially successful in the past bottlenecks. It is not about race and colour.
Let’s make a little game. Assumed you are a really powerful guy. Now you realize that the current system supports a genetical structure that is not beneficial to survive an ice age. These successful modern guys excell guys with a genetical set to survive an ice age and bring their genes under pressure. For some reasons you are expecting an ice age. What would you do?
Remember that we are told that after the cataclysm people will be faithfull believers in God living an agrarian life.
That idea is not grown on my own dung heap as you say in German. But I think it is worth to consider.
Jan, it might be better if we take offline at chngtg at gmail.com
You are missing the whole point. If you factor in everyone marries their first cousin, we still have a very large number of people.
The the time of Toba Supervolcano, 75,000 years ago, it is said to be only 7000 people left. 75,000 years is 2500 generations (30y/generation). From 2^2500, you need to whittle down to 2^13. How much inbreeding you need to go from 2^2500 to 2^13 ?
Yes, incest is a problem if the “lineage” carry a lot of recessive genes.
But that must be almost trivial to screen out using DNA sequencing.
Apparently I’m carrying genes for Age-Related Macular Degeneration and Hereditary Fructose Intolerance according to 23andMe. Yep, I’m fucked.
Getting blind at advanced age and intolerance for fructose (the irony). No good, but fair enough. I should have gotten vaxxed. Oh wait; I don’t have any offspring. Problem solved itself.
It is just a set of codes that give rise to an organism. It’s probably easy to get lost in some rigid model of cause and effect without considering all possible features and functions of evolutionary process.
But that isn’t to say that the hooman genome wasn’t dabbled with by “aliens”, “gods” or “ancients”. After all; we’re basically a flimsy cloner herd full of recessive genes causing all sort of illnesses both mental and body.
Basically a “that’ll do, it’s enough” bug riddled genome. What could possibly go wr…
“Lemme have a look around in IC…”
🫣
Never mind.
🤢🤮
Jan playing the blame game: “The question you raised is especially interesting in this forum as implicitly most people here would agree that we will face a genetical bottleneck soon. It is a likely consequence of Gails studies.”
From a friend:
Have a friend who’s in Philippines. Works at a hospital so has all the jabs. Had to go to ER today because her period is the worst she’s ever had it.
https://media.giphy.com/media/5yuC2vIsQJdoA/giphy.gif
Check this out https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3187580/volodymyr-zelensky-seeking-direct-talks-chinas-xi-jinping-help?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage
Then check this out https://www.onenewspage.com/video/20220302/14438627/Ukrainian-President-Volodymyr-Zelensky-in-gay-show.htm
Bit odd that a clown like that … would suddenly be a major statesman…. no?
Matrix.
Usually with a war of this magnitude https://www.rt.com/russia/560029-balkans-yugoslav-wars-ukraine/
You would have war photographers all over the place taking photos and videos — and we’d get lots of action to watch every day….
On top of it — you get people wanting to break into the industry who are willing to take enormous risks… they will go to the front lines prepared to die to get the shot that launches a career..
We are seeing none of this … odd.
Odd like how people shot the joy juice believing it would stop covid. And even though it doesn’t they take more joy juice.
In my opinion, the 1970s played a critical role in the direction for modern human civilization. There is the Club of Rome’s LTG. The Green Revolution was in its peak during this timeframe.
To me, the most important and defining time was the printing of fiat when USD was released from the confines of gold. Referring back to children being sold (posted by Herbie), it is also very common in Asia where there were way too many mouth to feed. We have children being given away. That was considered “normal” pre-1970.
In our younger days here, we, as children, although not poor, do not lead luxurious life. Even the slightly richer families lead a normal life. I would remember that KFC was meant for birthdays and meals at restaurants were only for very special occasions (usually weddings, corporate events) and it is only 1-2 times a year. TVs started to gain traction but we spent a lot of time outside. We don’t fall sick and even if we do, we hide it from parents unless it was unbearable.
Not materialistic but a very good life. If I were to re-live it again, I would go for it.
Debt was the main factor pushing the developed and developing world to get into high gear. Together with Green Revolution, which was in hind sight a very bad thing for modern human civilization, the population in the developed and developing world boomed. Debt enabled everyone to feel rich eventhough they do not incur debt. When others incur debt, others can feel right. An example will be real estate. When debt made it easy for people to buy homes, the developers started to sell in large quantities and lots of money were made. The clerk at a small factory making doors made food salary and bonuses eventhough he was very careful with his money. He started to take the family out for dinners and soon his family got used to it and dinners at restaurants were nothing “special” anymore.
As more and more debts pile up, people got richer and richer. The energy associated with EROEI got lost in the sea of debts. It makes not sense to spend $1 to make a product and sell to the public if the cost is $2. However with free money and debt, it was not a problem and many companies just took up debts.
Remember many people use to say – The the shale companies will go bankrupt and will be sold on pennies on dollar to the new buyer and wiped cleaned (the debts). So, this new company will make money as all the infrastructure was already in place. * See how debt has distorted the fact that energy was the key, not debt. Debt was just a representation of future energy use *
We are not different from the reindeers on St. Matthew’s island.
“Sudden and Unexpected” Hospital Staff Shortages All Over Canada
Demoralized, eh? Anxious? And therapy? Therapy for what exactly? Never mind!
Now despite the health care system suffering with staffing issues – one message from health care professionals has not changed at all: if you are sick and need care do not hesitate to go to the hospital.
Where you’ll spend upward of 20 hours to be admitted, or 2-3 hours in the ER before anyone will have a look at you.
Can it have anything, just anything to do with hospital staff being mandated the 4th shot? We know that doctors are dropping like flies as of July 2022:
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/sudden-and-unexpected-hospital-staff
Same story in NZ … 20% have walked not wanting any more injections
The actual excess deaths from all causes have been pretty low (compared to the US), based on Our World in Data.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline-by-age?country=USA~CAN
This is another way of looking at excess deaths in Canada:
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count-single-series?country=~CAN
Of course, Canada can have lots of other things wrong with its healthcare system, related to mandating the vaccines and related to staff burn out.
‘Son of a Gun’: Pfizer Projected to Make Tens of Billions on Paxlovid Because Their Shot Doesn’t Work
Forecasted Revenue for This Year
The shot – $32 Billion
Paxlovid – $22 Billion
Jimmy Dore: “Can you imagine if they sold you a vaccine for polio and then a drug to treat polio after you got the vaccine?”
H/T: t.me/backtolife_2022
Follow @VigilantFox 🦊
Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1eo5cj-son-of-a-gun-pfizer-projected-to-make-tens-of-billions-on-paxlovid.html)
Biden still is testing positive after his relapse after using Paxlovid. Fauci had a significant relapse on Paxlovid. I wonder if they really will be able to sell all of Pfizer’s Paxlovid.
I think if it doesn’t sell for Covid, they will simply reposition, rename and rebrand it as Poxlovid and use it to treat Monkey Pox.
YES https://t.me/PeterMcCullough/1665
You couldn’t make it up could you??? 😂
https://worldfreedomalliance.org/au/news/un-declares-war-on-dangerous-conspiracy-theories-the-world-is-not-secretly-manipulated-by-global-elite
Jordan Peterson – heheheh… he’s right — no sense in demoralizing… throw more coal on the f789ing fire! TINA and since you only live once… make the best of it https://youtu.be/_-cQ4YZDojc
It would be helpful if you put a single item in a comment, along with a little summary. I do not want any more images of overweight, mostly undressed people in links either. I removed the link you had with such an item.
The video with Peter McCullough is good. He points out that once physicians themselves have taken mRNA vaccines, they have a very difficult time convincing themselves that the vaccines can be harmful because they fear for their own health. Thus, they can see adverse reactions, here and there, and people catching Covid-19 after the vaccine, but they continue to repeat the well-publicized feel-good statements that the CDC and other spout.
The thing is … there are only so many hours in a day .. and with Harry doing a runner FE has to post both his original content + curated Telegram and SS content … + HE has to take care of his son Hooolio + ski + play hockey + load coal into the beast….
The obese men in g-strings are being foisted onto the children of the MOREONS… we cannot hide from this… this is the zeitgeist… this is the current Matrix… it’s not ‘fake’ news… surely it has value???
The only solution is for FE not to post the Telegram content … unless it provides supporting content to one of his PHD theories. However the world will be even more disappointing (than it already is)
BTW – they guy who was pushing me to vax … has been ill with flu like symptoms of and on for a few months now … and get this — has a serious infection (not respiratory) that has required two stints in hospital… he’s being treated now.
He’d be on 4 shots for sure… so I am thinking advanced VAIDS. He won’t ever connect the dots… not that it matters at this point.
Gail, Thank you for your fine work! A few positive points should one be fortunate enough to live in the USA and Canada. 1. We have massive coal reserves. More than any nation on earth. 2. We have a very large hydrocarbons reserves. A massive amount in rarely mentioned Utica shale. I reference “The Natural Gas Giant below the Marcellus”. However, much of the natural gas field is located in hydrocarbon hostile states. That dear Gail is subject to change! 😃 Michael PS My advise is don’t give up your US Citizenship! Remember when the U.S. catches a cold, the rest of the world catches the flu!!!
Also, remember that the coal reserves in Canada will be left in the ground, if the whole system isn’t in place and delivering a high enough selling price for the coal. The fact that they have not been extracted to date should give you a clue that there is a problem.
This is a link to a website that shows on a map where Canada’s coal reserves are. In fact, it shows where other energy resources are located. It also shows where Canada’s roads are, which is nowhere near where the coal reserve are located. I would be willing to bet that new railroads would be required to exploit these resources as well.
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/maps-tools-and-publications/maps/energy-maps/16872
The catch is that for both coal and natural gas, the cost of shipping these resources to where it will be used gets to be the vast majority of the cost. At this point, it is oil resources that are needed for building all of the roads and railroad tracks. The whole system becomes “not-feasible” because the resources required to make it become overly expensive relative to what it would be possible to get out.
The term I am familiar with is “stranded” coal and natural gas. These resources are indeed there, but the overall cost of getting them out and delivered to where they would need to be used is excessively high. If a “delivered Energy Return on Energy Invested” calculation could be made, it would take more energy to make the whole system work than the coal or natural gas would deliver.
I happen to be aware that ArcelorMittal attempted to develop a coal play in northern Canada roughly 10 years ago. Huge problems with worker costs, building out infrastructure… It was a constant and frustrating crisis for upper management. I do not know what became of it.
“The fact that they have not been extracted to date should give you a clue that there is a problem.”
This should be the first question anyone interested asks themselves – why has this oil / gas / coal field that we have known about for years / decades not been developed yet?
I don’t know much about coal fields, but I used to be very familiar with UK offshore oil fields and production. Roundabout 2007/2008 Oil and Gas UK, the UK oil and gas sector lobby and public relations / propaganda club, as usual published the number of oil fields that were discovered but not yet developed in their annual report. Cannot remember the exact figure, I think it was about 200 fields with total extractable volume of about 2 billion barrels. Their point of view of course was 2 billion barrels was a lot of oil, still to be extracted. Except that it wouldn’t. The average size would be about 10 m barrels, meaning tiny. 2 billion barrels is how much oil came out of Forties and Brent (each). All these fields were pending development for a good reason – too small, high temp / pressure, contained HS2 or heavy metals, too deep, too far from existing platforms etc. Some will have since been developed, but the large majority not, and probably never will be. The economics don’t add up.
the available quantity of coal and oil isn’t the problem (we will never ‘run out’)
As Gail has pointed out many times, being able to afford to use it is the problem
We are racing downwards towards the point where the energy contained in a barrel of oil equals the energy necessary to access and distribute that barrel of oil.
At that point it is game over for civilisation (renewable won’t cut it).
But there will be lots of oil and coal left in the ground, because the world is full of conspiraholics, who will insist that it’s all a hoax.
The consequence of that will be that wars of denial will break out.(theyve already started)
And wars always destroy that which is being fought over, so our access to what oil remains will shut down.
You are a decade behind the times… at least….
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Some key points from this Financial Times article: https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://archive.ph/tjl6J
COVID novel? likely not: In Vancouver, Canada in early 2020, a majority (more than 90%) of uninfected adults showed preexisting antibody reactivity against SARS-CoV-2
https://palexander.substack.com/p/covid-was-never-novel-as-they-told
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/disappearing-covid-19-facts
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb8955bec-4e5a-4f4d-984b-100d93a51394_1042x527.jpeg
current
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F676c91dd-2f29-4615-9520-ce248851e745_1039x377.jpeg
CDC “facts” about COVID-19 mRNA vaccines have been quietly amended. The statement “The mRNA and the spike protein don’t last long in the body,” has been removed, as well as the discussion about this “fact”.
As a reminder to folks – from a peer-reviewed journal article:
Acute hospitalized cases had a median spike concentration in the blood of 72 picograms / millileter. The median post-vaccination concentration was 42 picograms / millileter.
So the vaccine exposes you to the same order of magnitude of spike protein as an acute case. Not great.
oops, typo: the number is 47 post-vaccination
It appears mass arrests are about to begin in Ottawa. Police are bringing in buses and keeping journalists back.
https://twitter.com/thevoicealexa/status/1494673342137356295?s=21
Quick Question – who would like to watch a CovIDIOT beaten to death with a baseball bat? Would that (be honest) please you?
There is snow on the ground in that video. do you even care to watch what you post?
I think this this guy shares some good knowledge and can be hilarious. I don’t listen to much of his or any economic analysis as it seems obvious to me which direction we are headed. The only question I have is how fast. Maverick of Wall Street Start at 3:00 for funny commentary of Pelosi https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izLov9SmL4M
And it’s BAU today where I live !!! Big Island Hawaii. I might go out for a Latte. (decaf) to celebrate.
My daughter goes to college on Maui. It is certainly a different world. Do you have any comment on the closing of the coal plant? I bought my daughter a portable solar charger for her birthday in part thanks to that coal plant being closed to make way for green energy powered by wind, solar and oil (oil as a backup!).
I commented a little about this in an earlier comment. You might also look at the comment I am responding to. I believe it had a link about the situation.
This is a link to my earlier comment: https://ourfiniteworld.com/2022/07/28/the-worlds-self-organizing-economy-can-be-expected-to-act-strangely-as-energy-supplies-deplete/comment-page-3/#comment-380285
More burning https://rumble.com/v1en1ab-spontaneous-demonstration-erupts-in-madagascar-against-incessant-power-cuts.html
Dr. Mike Yeadon (http://t.me/robinmg) Concludes Respiratory Viruses DO NOT Exist
“I realized, over time, I could no longer maintain my understanding of respiratory viruses as I thought I knew them. And then I learned a new bit of information recently, and it just collapsed the possibility that respiratory viruses as described exist at all. They don’t.”
Rumble (https://rumble.com/v1en3fl-dr.-mike-yeadon-concludes-respiratory-viruses-do-not-exist.html)
“And then I learned a new bit of information recently”
Conveniently leaving out some important pieces of information.
This is strange, to say the least.
Thank you for this!! So Mike Yeadon’s views are evolving. This has got to be worth considering.
“”I realized, over time, I could no longer maintain my understanding of respiratory viruses as I thought I knew them. And then I learned a new bit of information recently, and it just collapsed the possibility that respiratory viruses as described exist at all. They don’t.”
The important qualifier here, I think, is “as described”. What Mike is saying is that it is not possible that the conventional explanation for how these entities known as “respiratory viruses” strut their funky stuff is correct. We must look elsewhere for answers.
Norman, you are a good man in a tight spot. Will you join me in the quest?
I would ask Duncan and Mike, but Duncan and Mike are no longer with us.
Mike has gone very quiet since finding out that the jabs were not as safe and effective as advertised.
And Duncan, if he’s still living and breathing, is doubtless cowering in a closet somewhere in San Francisco hoping and preying that Monkey pox doesn’t creep in.
A man
can admit that he was wrong or encountered new evidence.
A single “video” snippet as of today on the other hand is not really much to the bone…
I hope that will one day take down all of this nonsense.
Thankk you Mr. Yeadon.
Mr. Yeadon should share “the new evidence he got” I would like to see that.
Dear readers, as soon as you spot it, please share with us here.
Yep, it’s conjecture until proven otherwise. Just because someone whispered some yada-yada into Dr. Yeadon ear doesn’t make it into a verifiable truth.
Lemme stick my hand in the soil to verify if existence is real.
Yup; I felt the Tao grace my hand. 100% undisputed truth.
Next.
On June 7, 2022, Shapira said: “We are talking about vaccine five in two and a half years. When the vaccine is planned for the sequence from January 2020 (the great-grandfather of the great-grandfather of the current variants). A vaccine that does not prevent infection does not prevent morbidity. And it is allegedly attributed to significant side effects to say the least. Why? What is the logic? Which authority approved? And don’t say that it prevents a serious illness, no one has proven it.”
On June 8, 2022, Shapira said: “I will continue and ask why give an outdated fifth vaccine that does not prevent disease and apparently causes many significant common side effects.”
https://kanekoa.substack.com/p/twitter-censors-pfizer-injured-israeli
People will believe just about any nonsense … https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38106 but if one presents them with UEP — they will insist that is nonsense. She’s quite hot though.
ooohhh more upside down flags!! Viva la revolution!!! https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38107
No need for carbon credits once China is sanctioned. Maybe oxygen credits can become popular instead? I wonder what level of sanctioning China could take and not go mad max. 50% reduction in production? We dont want mad max.
As trade becomes less there is less need for settlement and less demand for reserve currency.
China best be getting back to agriculture. USA has corn for sale but ruples only. Once ruples become the reserve currency USA can see about a return to productivity. We can use Japan as a model.Open borders wont matter. Well maybe to Mexico- Americans laboring there to get high peso values.
By the way, the “box” for starting a new thread is at the bottom, which can be quite a ways down.
I suppose “sanctions” can be used to make reduced production from China sound like something that is “good” and something that we want. It is amazing how the truth can be twisted.
Well Gail i suppose its how you look at it. As i mentioned I have my biases. RE twisting the truth. I think the idea of a “service economy” is twisting the truth. What it amounts to is the USA printing money while other nations are productive. Not that “services” are not productive far from it. Cleaning people ala houskeepers are making $35 to $40 a hour in Florida and there is more demand than people willing to work.
If you believe that there is no way that the USA can ever produce parts for vital industries like agriculture again that we will always be dependant on China for those parts it makes sense that we will always want manufactured goods to continue from China. If the alternative is starving yes we want those parts to continue to flow from China. Im not even saying that premise is incorect it may well be impossible for the USA to ever return to some degree of manufacturing.
THe other way of looking at it is that it is certainly inevitable that the US$ will lose reserve currency status. Its a pity. IMO we could have milked it for a long time if we had kept our spending reasonable. THats not the case. WE are flagrantly abusing our reserve currency status.
China uses the US dollars it gets to buy energy, food, and other raw materials. What is possible- some say probable- is that the US dollar may not always work for that. Then China has a big problem and so does the USA. Were not there yet. But considering that the USA will cease to function without Chinese goods is it really a good idea to just hope this araingment will continue indefinatly and not seek some degree of security?
The best way to keep some degree of security would be to keep USA government spending reasonable. To regard the Chinese as valuble trading partners. THe exact opposite is happening.
In liu of this it could be considered a reduction in Chinese imported goods could be a good thing. It seems to be the only way we will come to terms with our vulnerability in this single source arraingment. Isnt that better than just hitting a wall where a large percentage of Chinese goods or all Chinese goods stop flowing?
Of course I guess some people believe that we can just keep China producing goods and accepting our $US with military force. I hope I am not being too blunt. I find that Idea discusting.
You see Gail I know the USA can compete. WE are innovators. We get things done. We work our asses off for our team. IF it means somthing. Corporations that outsource are not a team. I say this not out of exceptionalism. Even it up. Give the USA a shot. We will inovate- we will be productive- we will kick ass. I know this to be true. I say not to denigrate the skills of other countries- I have worked with engineers and technicians from many countries. What im saying is the USA is competive in skills. Very competitive. It means nothing without facilities.
My job went to China four times. In every case we were making lots of money for our “company”. Profits dont really matter. CEOs who chase profits get fired. What matters is stock price. The board wants stock price to go up so they fire CEOs who create good productive teams. What makes stock price go up is cutting cost. The way you cut cost is to outsource. Then you borrow money and buy your own stock. Thats 99% of the CEOs now.
Ive seen some crazy things Gail. Saying Bangalore is your coder now. Except you have to write a new contract every time you need a bit of code and it has to happen in a time zone on the other side of the world. So its easier just to code yourself. Payroll is in shenzhen now. Didnt get your check. AHH contact ying yong. I could go on and on. Crazy things Gail. Eliminating effective teams and creating dysfunction. We have young talented people with work ethic ready to rock n roll. All this have India do it- have China do it-it just doesnt work. What works is dynamic teams. They move mountains.
What we have now is a recipe for disaster. What we have is a complete dysfunction. What creates it is currency distortion. Is maybe a little less imported goods from China really such a terrible thing? THe day is coming where the printing press will not solve a big big problem. I find it extremely frustrating because we are more than capable of wearing big boy pants and taking care of business. Instead our hands are tied. 100 mph toward the wall. I would regard some reduction in imported Chinese goods a wake up call and just perhaps it might lead to solutions. Probably not. It would still be better than laying in the feces of our dysfunction.
Thanks for your very fine comment! I think that this is an important point:
Yes. That is precisely the problem. China is losing its ability to make as many goods and services as it has in the past (due to energy problems, also water, food, and pollution problems), and the US is flagrantly abusing its reserve currency status. Like Rome, the US needs imported goods from the outlying areas. If the US$ rises too high, these countries cannot really produce these goods. There needs to be a balance. Productive countries need to continue producing, to the extent that they can.
I am quite familiar with the problems of sending programming to China, India, Ukraine, Russia, and many other countries. I have two sons whose jobs have been affected by this, multiple times. Also, programs are more and more complex. Now programmers are working from home on teams with people from other time zones. Managers want more and more impossible software to be developed. Even figuring out which software “tools” to use becomes difficult. Those working at home can expect frequent (daily?) team meetings with others from different cultures, not speaking English as a first language. Documentation is of what has been done previously is often sketchy. The person working at home has no support group. It seems like this approach is an example of complexity reaching diminishing returns.
Yep, she is a candidate for causing global warming….
Search her name swimsuit… that will counteract the Telegram shots of the fat men ad trannies in bikinis reading books to 6 yr old boys propped on their knees that I’ve posted …
Why You Probably Shouldn’t Go to University
https://odysee.com/@JollyHeretic:d/why-you-probably-shouldn't-go-to:8
Interesting – more than 50% of UK school leavers now go to university (if I understood correctly). No wonder a degree is no longer a guarantee of a good job, most people have one.
Wow – this is great https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/38104
Fast – there seems to be an optimistic side to you.
My favourite is the second to last one where the robber’s leg get busted in half and he’s trying to run hahahahaha
But the last one where the car smashes them and they do full somersaults is good too
What? Imperial credits no good? Mind control doesnt work?
Some of the you might remember “Who will love my children’, a TV movie in 1983.
Lucile Fray gave away all 10, ten, children away because she was dying and she thought her husband was incompetent. The process was probably similar to what happened to the 1948 Indiana family.
After the tv movie made a small stir, 9 of the 10 children had their first-and-last reunion. (One son, one of the youngest was already dead of a motorcycle crash – the family who adopted him later had 3 other children, so he kind of ‘faded away’ from that family) Predictably, the daughters kind of accepted the mother’s decision while the sons were angry and regretted they had a family which they never really had a chance to relate to.
Post this single reunion info on them are scant, but one daughter did have cancer which made a small news in the town where she lived. She also reconnected to her long separated father for some time, although what happened to him eventually is unknown.
The moral is things like that probably happened quite a lot with the city slickers not paying too much attention.
It’s worth bearing in mind that children often started full-time work of some kind at 12, later 14, yrs of age – on farms, mines, on ships or as domestic servants.
Many in the 19th and early 20th centuries had also lost both parents by the age of 12, so families quite naturally broke up and parents ( if alive) didn’t bear the burden of their children for too long.
Many children of the rich were also in a way farmed out to relations, or sent to schools far away, due to being orphans or just not convenient to have around.
Regarding Herbie’s story about the Indiana family who sold the children, here are more about tamily
https://www.shessocool.com/the-sad-story-behind-the-photo-of-four-children-who-had-to-be-sold-the-1940s/
Tl, dr, the man the mother was living with was not her husband, and she had 4 more daughters with another man. She did not offer any remorse about what she did.
One son spent most of his life institutionalized, and the other son, who was not born yet when the photo was taken, ran away and entered the military at the age of 16. Apparently neither of them reproduced.
One daughter was raped as a teen, cut ties with her adopted family and had another son. No mention of husband.
The other daughter died in 1998, and her family appears to prefer to have nothing to do with the three uncles and aunts her mother did not mention.
Thank for the added research…sounds more like the typical modern dysfunctional “family” we watch on TV programs…they were just ahead of their times
money supply graph
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/m1.gif
Wow!
The Elders, as we call them here, are making great strides in their pursuit of life extension
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna41014
Scientists reanimate dead cells in pigs, a potential breakthrough for organ transplants
The new research challenges the idea that the beginning of cell death is irreversible, though bioethicists say it also poses significant questions
When the heart stops beating, blood flow is cut off from the body in a process called ischemia and a cascade of biochemical effects begins. Oxygen and nutrients are cut off from tissues. Cells begin to die. It’s a path toward death that causes damage that scientists have considered irreversible.
The new research challenges that idea.
“The demise of cells can be halted,” Dr. Nenad Sestan, a professor of neuroscience at the Yale School of Medicine and an author of the new research, said during a news conference. “We restored some functions of cells across multiple organs that should have been dead.”
The Yale researchers accomplished this feat by constructing a system of pumps, sensors and tubing that connects to pig arteries. They also developed a formula with 13 medical drugs that can be mixed with blood and then pumped into the animals’ cardiovascular systems. The research builds on previous work at Yale, which demonstrated that some damage to brain cells could be reversible after blood flow was cut off. Yale has filed a patent for the new technology, but is making its methods and protocols freely available for academic or nonprofit use, the study says.
To evaluate how well the new system, called OrganEx, works, the researchers caused heart attacks in pigs that had been anesthetized. The pigs were dead for an hour, and the researchers cooled their bodies and used neural inhibitors to ensure the animals did not regain consciousness during subsequent experiments.
It would be nice to see Henry Kissinger live on to many more decades ahead…
In his 99th year and with his 19th book, Henry A. Kissinger repeats the same deceitful accounts regarding his dangerous use of military power, including nuclear threats. In the 1970s as the national security adviser and secretary of state for presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, Kissinger occupied an unusually powerful position in the national security arena. His newest book, “Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy,” is valuable because of his experiences in the political and academic communities, but it must be read carefully in view of the self-aggrandizing nature of his self-promotion.
Kissinger’s machinations as secretary of state and national security adviser point to the dangers of relying on the use of military signals in diplomatic confrontations.
…
https://www.counterpunch.org/2022/08/02/henry-kissinger-a-warmongers-lying-continues/
Eternal life is possible. For those who can pay.
In the old stories, Kings lived for thousands of years while ordinary mortals only lived for a generation or so.
Maybe the story tellers were right. The ancients gods did have eternal lives, for all practical purposes.
As I suspected, first it was Russian aggression which now is becoming Chinese aggression. Neocons are too predictable.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nancy-pelosi-arrives-seoul-south-koreas-president-wont-meet-her
“It marks Pelosi’s first visit to South Korea since 2015, and she’s expected to encourage the country to deepen its support for Washington’s shoring up coordination among regional partners and allies to counter Chinese aggression.”
Earlier today, Zerohedge was saying:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/pelosi-departs-taiwan-after-president-tsai-bestowed-highest-medal-china-preps-largest
So, after she has left,
So, we are seeing Chinese aggression.
I can imagine President Tsai Ing-Wen grinning in glee at the saber rattling. PLA being useful tryhard attaboys to the CCP cronies.
https://cdn-japantimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/f-tsaitwo-a-20180521.jpg
I would define that as a ‘response and not aggression’. The US is the aggressor here. It has little business that is of interest in that part of the world. The US for quite sometime has labeled the south china seas as off limits to China. The US is doing the same thing to China as it did to Russia.
It’s quite possible that left alone Taiwan would have remained independent from China. Now because of “US aggression” in the region, all bets are off.
For all we know, the China controlled US President (reference: Bobulinski) encouraged a trip to Taiwan by the third in power in order to create exactly the circumstance which we now see.
This action might have been used to provide more leverage over the area at the expense of US goodwill, thereby shaking away some of the additional support Taiwan is enjoying, while at the same time allowing China to ring the island permanently.
Alternatively, perhaps the Ukraine experience worked out so well in terms of expended Russian military assets that having China attack Taiwan before it is truly prepared will effectively mean its navy will be knocked out. Taking Taiwan would most likely be extremely expensive and would also ensure most oil would not reach China for a very long time as well.
What ever is going on, is most likely not easy to read.
Provoking a Coup d’état.
Ah grasshopper. You must understand the difference between “Chinese aggression” and “brutal Chinese aggression”. Nuances are important. Ill make a diplomat of you yet.
“Vibrant liberal democracy”
“Brutal Chinese aggression”
Notice seven to nine syllables in each phrase. Its like a Haiku. A affirmation or condemnation that can not be denied once uttered. Echoed by a million broadcast journalists each expressing their creativity with the tone they choose. The cadence however is rigid. If the cadence was not rigid the repeat until truth effect of a million broadcast journalists would be lost. We are now a meme society. Seven to nine syllables is just right. There are guild forms to observe in this matter and deviation is not taken lightly.
Chinese aggression is not serious. Five syllables. Brutal Chinese aggression would be serious.
I notice the WSJ is saying Nuclear Power Plants Could Stay Open, Says Germany
Berlin could reconsider its decision to shut down Germany’s nuclear plants in December, says chancellor
No kidding! Perhaps someone has some sense.
33 children under risk.
Vaccines had been thawed long before, beyond what safety regulations require.
They will stay under observation.
(but the problem it is not told will come out now or in few days….)
https://www.gazzettadimodena.it/modena/cronaca/2022/08/03/news/pavullo-vaccini-conservati-male-via-ai-controlli-su-33-bimbi-1.100064182?fbclid=IwAR3rG7jkzGd5b_-DEXY5K-UlBt9AAIcnARDI1k2dlKSYICcjCMJAB_o-kFI&fs=e&s=cl
https://www.ilparagone.it/cronaca/i-vaccini-erano-conservati-male-33-bambini-sotto-controllo-panico-in-citta-e-famiglie-in-allarme/
EU has already bought more than 10 doses for each European person for the winter vaccination campaign about Covid
The doses comes from Spanish Pharmaceutical Company Hipra and they are related to the old version of the virus…
We will spend our winter with little food and under light of candels, but happily full of vaccines 🙂
https://www.ilparagone.it/attualita/vaccinazione-a-tappeto-leuropa-prepara-la-campagna-dautunno-e-ordina-un-fiume-di-vaccini-la-cifra-scandalo/
Strange way of doing things. Helps the vaccine company and its employees.
Blogger Igor Chudov suggests correlation of jabs and declining birth rate in Hungary. No proof yet but disturbing data:
“It turns out that the highest vaccinated counties of Hungary have the worst drop in birth rates in 2022!”
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/hungary-most-vaccinated-counties
I don’t know whether correlation of declining birth rates with higher vaccinations rates really proves anything.
High vaccination rates are probably indicative of something else; I am not sure what. Perhaps more governmental control; perhaps more urbanization; perhaps higher incomes.
It is usually higher income people who cut back on births, if they can see bad times ahead.
Perhaps those who chose the vaccinations were more frightened by the future scenario painted for them by public officials.
Unless this pattern exists elsewhere, over a longer time-frame, I wouldn’t worry too much about it.
Too early to tell about fertility in general , except the 6-month drop in male fertility and the evidence for a higher rate of miscarriages among those injected when pregnant. Lots of vaccinated women are having babies, that’s for sure.
There’s a very interesting post on Dr Malone’s site: a discussion with a Dutch vaccine expert who has been looking at the possible correlation between booster shots campaign in the Netherlands and higher all-causes mortality among over-65’s.
He has written to the Dutch Health Ministry, calling for a halt to the booster programme. Seems serious.
It would be interesting if someone 😉 wrote an article on how through history dire situations (due to monetary or energy(!) issues) changed fertility and or mortality patterns ….
Internet search?
There is not really much.
The one thing well known is the positive feedback loop:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2009-04-20/peak-people-interrelationship-between-population-growth-and-energy-resources/
But I did not find anything on negative feedback.
Ah, I know, energy supply will always increase of course.
Errr, hasn’t Hungary had the most restrictive borders to immigration?
After this photograph ran in a newspaper in Valparaiso, Indiana, on August 5, 1948, folks believed that the image was staged. Sadly, the photograph actually depicts a pregnant mother who is so poverty-stricken that she had no choice but to sell her own children, including her unborn child. The woman was Lucille Chalifoux. After her husband, Ray, lost his job and the family faced eviction, couple decided to sell their kids. It took several months, but eventually, all of the children were sold off. According to reports, most of them were no better off with their new families. In fact, two of the siblings were kept as slaves. They were chained in a barn and forced to work long hours in the fields. A sad life for these poor children.
https://www.colorized.com/64-unsettling-photographs-from-the-past-colorized/13?utm_subid=10605894&utm_source=ga&utm_medium=www.giantfreakinrobot.com&utm_term=adid}&utm_campaign=1445331&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3sXQqdeq-QIVPwaKAx1nawHrEAEYASAAEgLrLPD_BwE
Suppose Edwin is not too far off the mark on what we shall come to see in our future when the current economy fails..Hope I’m not around …
Only a significant reduction of the population of the third world will save BAU and at some point there will be someone who will implement this strategy.
I reckon cutting the frivolous consumption and egotistical fantasies of the princes and princesses of IC is a much better strategy in every conceivable aspect imaginable.
How about starting with you?
I expect that natural forces will be behind population reduction. More illnesses will lead to shorter life expectancies, for example.
It is really the whole world that has a quite similar problem. The third world at least has some knowledge of how to grow crops without fossil fuels. In some ways, it may be ahead.
https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-vaccine-deaths-of-children
“World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.”
The primary cause of WW2 was the need to eliminate Germany as a commercial-industrial rival.
At the same time, it has been a very longstanding principle of the geopolitics of The City of London and Wall Street that the German and Russian empires should never be allowed to ally or to cooperate in peace, as it would obviously become an insuperable commercial and industrial rival (the theory behind Preparata’s otherwise silly “Conjuring Hitler”.)
We see this strategy still in play in the Ukraine situation today.
But of course energy played its role in Britain’s industrial decline in the early century and her concern with German industrial and commercial vigor can be understood in light of that, of course along with the fact that international banks had taken fright at the novel German approach to international trade – barter and a variable value for currencies depending on where they were spent – which was leading to various countries escaping the debt traps if the international banking system.
With regard to coal specifically, we can see is importance in its mention in early drafts of the Morgenthau Plan for the deindustrialization and breakup of postwar Germany.
Hereafter I quote from the briefing book of the [Soviet agent-led and wormholed] Treasury Department prior to the president’s departure for the 1944 Quebec Conference with Churchill…
How British Industry Would Benefit by Proposed Program
1. The British coal industry would recover from its thirty year depression by gaining new markets. Britain would meet the major portion of the European coal needs formerly met by the annual Ruhr production of 125 million tons. The consequent expansion of British coal output would allow for the development of a coherent program for the expansion and reorganization of what has been Britain’s leading depressed industry since 1918 and facilitate the elimination of the depressed areas.
2. The reduction in German industrial capacity would eliminate German competition with British exports in the world market. Not only will England be in a position to recapture many of the foreign markets she lost to Germany after 1918, but she will participate in supplying the devastated
countries of Europe with all types of consumer and industrial goods for their reconstruction needs in the immediate post-war years.
3. Transference of a large section of German shipping, both commercial and naval, and shipbuilding equipment to England will be an important item in England’s program of post-war economic expansion of restitution.
4. Britain’s foreign exchange position will be strengthened and the pressure on sterling reduced by the expansion o f her exports and shipping services.
5. The assurance of peace and security would constitute England’s greatest single economic benefit from the proposed program designed to put Germany in a position never again to wage effective war on the continent. England would be able to undertake the program for economic and social reconstruction advanced in the Beveridge plan and the Government program for full employment without having to worry about the future financial burdens of maintaining [a ] large army and huge armament Industries Indefinitely
END QUOTE
Source: Swords or Ploughshares?: The Morgenthau Plan for Defeated Nazi Germany, 1943-1946, Warren F. Kimball
The issue with peak coal, whether in the UK or in Germany, is that the price of coal cannot rise high enough to provide
(1) Rising production, which might be sold overseas to help other countries
(2) Adequate profits for those operating the mines
(3) Adequate wages for workers
At the same time, the rise in coal price that almost certainly did take place led to inflation in costs not only in the UK and Germany, but in countries that had lesser coal resources who had previously imported coal from these countries. Also, with the poor economic conditions, job opportunities were likely poor, and profits in non-coal industries, particular farming, were likely too low.
Population had risen prior to peak coal in these countries. This meant that these countries needed to provide more food for their populations, or there would be starvation. This was part of the push for the need for ever more coal. It is also the reason that there was interest in eugenics in the 1930s.
Dr Carrie Madej post plane crash UPDATE with Mike Adams
Apparently, it was God and a Smartphone that saved her life!!
I don’t know her views on finite world issues, but Carrie agrees with Gail that “we need a supernatural intervention. We need God.” With regard to the jabs, she also says, “If we don’t have a revival here, if we don’t understand that this is a spiritual battle, if we don’t understand that we can’t humanly fight what we are seeing—and you know the spike?—things that I see under the microscope, or you?”
Some people will say in all seriousness that she’s friendly with Mike Adams and Alex Jones, and they will also say that Mike and Alex are CIA Mockingbird Pseudo Alternative Media, and so they will conclude that Carrie is too. But really, with that level of suspicion, I don’t know how people can sleep at night. 🙂
God? It would be better if he goes to fishing.
Whenever ‘miracles’ occurred it always occurred to the wrong side.
If God existed, Henry Moseley would have lived and Ramanujan would have choked to death before he could do any damage.
Henry Moseley signed his death certificate by own volition and died in Gallipoli.
Survival instinct supplants scientific prowess one prematurely dead body at a time.
Good riddance.
And the “gods” nod in agreement.
Plenty of people survived the whole 4 years, including Erich Remarque who wrote his own story to his famous book.
Moseley died so people like Ramanujan could get exemptions.
Ramanjuan? The math genius?
Whatever his merits were , he never learned how to do proofs so his contribution is worth nothing.
Plus his entry to the Royal Society was a final f’k you to all the gentlemen scientists who were driving science in the 19th and early 20th centuries. So he significantly hindered Civilization.
If he choked to death, we would see much less hindus in the Royal Society or in fact any societies outside of India.
If you watch a clip on moon landing, you don’t see too many Asian faces, of any kind. Enough said
well of course. Stanley Kubrick never hired Asians.
Wow! This interview has turned into a product endorsement fest! They have managed to weave to Carrie’s epic recovery info and testimony about the wonderful products that have helped her heal.
One of the most off-putting things about Natural News, as well as the even more annoying Info Wars is their in-your-face marketing activities.
Tim; perhaps do as old man Gautama suggests and shove your hand into the rice paddy for enlightenment. It’s wet, lukewarm and as real as it ever will be.
Yes; the Tao flows there.
It sure AF isn’t full of various egotistical fantasies, hopiates and copium.
Myself; perhaps I’ll turn the cranks a bit today.
High five to that?
✋
99.99% are so full of themselves it isn’t even absurd anymore.
It is pure tragicomedy and BS for sale.
✋
Kow, this year is my 28th year of growing rice in the paddy. The way I see it, you are never unemployed as a subsistence farmer, and, since the end of feudalism, you are also your own boss!
How about Taiwan?
I kinda fancy Prez. Tsai.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/Travel/2017/October/taiwan%20taroko%20GettyImages-621669984.jpg
Lots of savage climbs and descends for my crank turning obnoxious and rice terraces. I might have to give up on the holy oats though.
Thoughts on this?
🤔
That’s a beautiful scene you’ve linked to.
Reminds me of this old Chinese poem:
“I asked the boy beneath the pines.
He said: the Master’s gone alone
herb picking somewhere on the mount,
cloud-hidden, whereabouts unknown.”
― Chia Tao
Allan Watts popularized that in the West, and Van Morrison wrote a song based on the theme.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCGUwRo5Ork
President Tsai? She’s very clean looking. Healthy. Not a great glamour girl, but a nice and pleasant woman, and probably the cutest national leader on the scene these days. But let’s face it, Nancy Pelosi and Liz Truss are not much competition.
I kind fancy Tulsi Gabbard these days.
Taiwan is a good deal smaller than Honshu, but it has steeper mountains. Yu Shan or Yushan, also known in English as Jade Mountain, the highest mountain in Taiwan, rises to 3,952 m, which is 176 m higher than Mount Fuji’s 3,776 m and indeed high enough for it to be covered in snow despite being close to the Tropic of Cancer.
The Taiwanese mountains—basically one big mountain range 50km from east to west and 250km from north to south—would make a good place for a lost world. If the CCP/PRC forces ever invaded militarily, Taiwanese forces could hold out for years in those mountains. In the previous Chinese colonial period, the native mountain Taiwanese were never completely subdued and wee considered as savages beyond the boundaries of civilization. In practice, this meant they didn’t use chopsticks!
https://www.travel.taipei/en/activity/details/37291
I only listened to the first 15 minutes or so of this video. This portion lays out the many amazing coincidences that led to appropriate authorities finding the plane in which Dr. Carrie Madej crashed. I would tend to agree with her that God’s intervention played a role.
This 15-minute segment also seems to point to the likelihood of foul play, because the crash was never reported properly. Instead, it looked like the plane landed safely.
I was expecting them to go into the possibilities of foul play in this interview, but that didn’t happen. They talked about how Carrie’s recovering is going, and how she has been using a device to speed the healing process. Then the owner of the company that produces and sells the device came on and they talked with him. I was disappointed, frankly.
The classic warning given to little people who upset big people is, “Don’t go up in any small planes.” The mobsters and intelligence agencies have turned engineered crashes into a fine art.
I suggest the most wonderful healing device can be a corkscrew, with something appropriate to apply it to. And a recliner.
I am not sponsored, this suggestion is born of pure philanthropy.
Most of the reasonably affordable wine I manage to get my hands on these days is, lamentably, corkless. Either it comes in a bottle with a metallic screw cap, or else with a synthetic cork. Real cork marks it out a luxury item, I’m afraid. But the pleasure of appreciating good wine begins by getting out the corkscrew and extracting the stopper.
Paul Alexander blogs the pandemic was over in March 2020:
The PCR test was used to carry out this great fraud, starting on Trump. And there was nothing ‘novel’ about COVID virus, our immune systems had seen this before in some manner.
It was actually over, the virus was circulating maybe as early as mid 2019, for sure Fall/Winter 2019 in global nations, and burning out; it was done March 2020 and the Diamond Princess told us there was a threshold of 19-20% infection even in a closed population. We even have Vancouver Canada data (Pellech et al.) showing about 90% of the population had some form of sero immunity mid 2020 or so. How? Unless it was circulating for a long while prior.
https://palexander.substack.com/p/it-was-a-lie-of-gravest-dimensions
This is a sort of “over the top” article by Dr. Paul Alexander.
He says,
Its the new, mRNA version of ‘Lying Flat’.
…..or flat out lying.
You choose what the facts dictate
USA TODAY
Eating processed foods is hurting your brain, study says. Even ‘2 cookies’ can affect health.
Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY
Tue, August 2, 2022 at 5:36 PM
Although it’s obvious that a diet of hot dogs and ice cream won’t lead to a healthy physical life, new research illuminates how ultra-processed foods can also cause a significant decrease in brain function.
Research presented Monday at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference in San Diego outlined how foods such as instant noodles, sugary drinks and frozen meals all play a factor in a faster rate of cognitive decline.
“It’s no secret that physical and mental-cognitive health are intimately involved with each other, so it’s no surprise that this latest research suggests brain impairment, too,” said Rafael Perez-Escamilla, a professor of public health at Yale University.
“Just 100 calories of processed foods can affect your physical health. So, that’s two cookies.”
Research has linked ultra-processed food consumption to health problems like obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and cancers. “And now, we are starting to realize they affect the mind,” Perez-Escamilla said. “That’s because they cause inflammation, which can affect neurotransmitters in the brain. Processed foods also operate on a micro level with billions and billions of bacteria cells that (impair) functioning.”
See Edwin…we don’t need a vacx to kill us all, just consume BAU diet, bro!
PS. Twinkies make life worth living!
I am afraid the Alzheimer’s Association may be correct.
Seems reasonable to me..but what do I know? If it helps BAU, go for it!
It’s time for Army Corps of Engineers to investigate the feasibility of moving water West
Don Siefkes
Sat, July 30, 2022 at 9:00 AM·3 min read
Numerous letters (including mine of June 30) have commented recently on the possibility of moving water from the Mississippi River to the Colorado River at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon dam on the Utah/Colorado border) and then downstream to Lake Mead (Hoover Dam/Las Vegas) and on through Arizona and beyond. Some of these letters are supportive and some not. The whole point of suggesting this solution to the Southwest’s water problem is to generate a public demand to the Army Corps of Engineers to investigate the feasibility of such a project.
I suggested diverting 250,000 gallons/second, which is only about 5% of the flow on the lower Mississippi south of the Old River Control Structure (ORCS) in Central Louisiana 300 miles above New Orleans. This water does nothing except flow out into the Gulf of Mexico. It generates no electricity and doesn’t help commercial shipping or recreational boating. It only causes flooding problems in New Orleans. No state above the OCRS would suffer any loss of water
250,000 gals/sec is impractical, have the Corps consider a flow of 125,000 gals/sec (only 2.5% of the downriver flow), which would take two to three years to fill Lakes Powell and Mead. This is a rather rapid and reasonable time frame to solve the water problems of the Southwest
……..It is roughly 1,400 miles from the OCRS to Lake Powell, but that really means building 1,400 miles of something similar to an interstate highway. The U.S. has already built 47,000 miles of such highways, so another 1,400 miles doesn’t feel insurmountable.
Water conservation on the part of everyone living in the Southwest is certainly important, but conservation simply can’t do the job. Los Angeles couldn’t exist without the California Aqueduct. Phoenix and other cities in the Southwest are in the same boat. Their future survival depends upon finding large amounts of new water.
Don Siefkes lives in San Leandro. Email him at donsiefkes@aol.com
No, another 1,400 miles shouldn’t be a problem…but other factors might..like pumping stations. Elevations, evaporation…property rights ect…
This sounds like an eminently practical temporary solution to the current water problem in the Southwest. At the very least, it will help encouraging people to stay in California rather than moving elsewhere and bothering the locals. But in the longer term it could end up enabling further population growth in the Southwest, which might have catastrophic consequences if droughts intensify or if the supply from the Mississippi gets interrupted for any reason.
“eminently practical”
Building a giant canal 1400 miles in length is eminently practical?
You need a deadpan humor tag.
Every undocumented alien who crosses the Mexico/US border could be given a shovel and a wheelbarrow, and given a quota to dig. That would kill several birds with one stone. /sarc
The Suez Canal is 120 miles long and over 60 feet deep and was constructed before backhoes and dump trucks were available.
WIKI: “The excavation took some 10 years, with forced labour (corvée) being employed until 1864 to dig out the canal. Some sources estimate that over 30,000 people were working on the canal at any given period, that more than 1.5 million people from various countries were employed, and that tens of thousands of labourers died, many of them from cholera and similar epidemics.”
A 1400 mile canal about 10 feet deep would be comparable as a construction project to the Suez Canal, and the heavy equipment is available to make light work of it. I’m not endorsing the idea, but it is feasible.
The project would take a lot of fossil fuels and other minerals. It would need quite a bit on an ongoing basis as well, to keep pumping water up over the mountains. Long term, as Tim say, it doesn’t fix the situation. It just encourages people to stay there.
PERSONAL FINANCEMapped: The Salary You Need to Buy a Home in 50 U.S. CitiesPublished 23 hours ago on August 1, 2022
By Avery Koop
This is the Salary You Need to Buy a Home in 50 U.S. Cities
Depending on where you live, owning a home may seem like a far off dream or it could be fairly realistic. In New York City, for example, a person needs to be making at least six figures to buy a home, but in Cleveland you could do it with just over $45,000 a year.
This visual, using data from Home Sweet Home, maps out the annual salary you’d need for home ownership in 50 different U.S. cities.
Note: The map above refers to entire metro areas and uses Q1 2022 data on median home prices. The necessary salary was calculated by the source, looking at the base cost of principal, interest, property tax, and homeowner’s insurance.
Home Ownership Across the U.S.
San Jose is by far the most expensive city when it comes to purchasing a home. A person would need to earn over $330,000 annually to pay off the mortgage at a monthly rate of $7,718.
Here’s a closer look at the numbers:
Search:
Rank Metro Area Median Home Price Salary Needed
#1 San Jose $1,875,000 $330,758
#2 San Francisco $1,380,000 $249,685
#3 San Diego $905,000 $166,828
#4 Los Angeles $792,500 $149,127
#5 Seattle $746,200 $140,768
#6 Boston $639,000 $130,203
#7 New York City $578,100 $129,459
#8 Denver $662,200 $121,888
#9 Austin $540,700 $114,679
#10 Washington, D.C. $553,000 $110,327
Showing 1 to 10 of 50 entriesPreviousNext
Perhaps surprisingly, Boston residents need slightly higher earnings than New Yorkers to buy a home. The same is also true in Seattle and Los Angeles. Meanwhile, some of the cheapest cities to start buying up real estate in are Oklahoma City and Cleveland.
As of April, the rate of home ownership in the U.S. is 65%. This number represents the share of homes that are occupied by the owner, rather than rented out or vacant
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-the-salary-you-need-to-buy-a-home-in-50-u-s-cities/
Looks to me that this asset bubble needs more debt…
Wow. Remember when nice homes in Boston area could be bought for $125,000..
Oh, those were the days.
What are young adults going to do???
Discovery offers insight into how cancer spreads and provides a tool for developing new treatments.
https://scitechdaily.com/how-cancer-spreads-cancer-cells-can-migrate-toward-certain-sweet-spot-environments/amp/
Scientists have discovered that cancer cells can gravitate toward certain mechanical “sweet spot” environments, providing new insights into how cancer invades the body. The findings could help scientists and engineers better understand how cancer spreads. The discovery could also lead to improved future treatments.
This research was supported primarily by the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center for Engineering Mechanobiology with additional support from the University of Turku Doctoral Programme in Molecular Life Sciences, the Company of Biologists Travelling Fellowship, the Finnish Cultural Foundation, the Academy of Finland, the Sigrid Juselius Foundation, the Finnish Cancer Organization, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Natural Science Basic Research Plan in Shaanxi Province of China, the Shaanxi Province Youth Talent Support Program, and the Young Talent Support Plan of Xi’an Jiaotong University.
In addition to Odde, the research team included University of Minnesota Department of Biomedical Engineering researchers Jay Hou, Ghaidan Shamsan, Benjamin Fuller, and Jesse Kasim; University of Minnesota Twin Cities Department of Chemistry researchers Keun-Young Park, M. Mohsen Mahmoodi, and Professor Mark Distefano; University of Turku, Finland, researchers Aleksi Isomursu, Mathilde Mathieu, and Professor Johanna Ivaska; and Xi’an Jiaotong University researchers Bo Cheng, Tian Jian Lu, Guy Genin, Feng Xu, and Professor Min Lin.
Wow..talk about complexity!!!
Perhaps this research is part of Edwin’s UEP to enact cancer spread!
Now that’s devious, is it not?
There may be hope that collapse will be averted before winter! That would be 👍 nice!
Wed, August 3, 2022 at 12:06 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) – Russia wants a negotiated solution to the war in Ukraine and last month’s agreement on grain shipments might offer a way forward, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday.
“The good news is that the Kremlin wants a negotiated solution,” Schroeder told Stern weekly and broadcasters RTL/ntv, adding he had met Putin in Moscow last week.
“A first success is the grain deal, perhaps that can be slowly expanded to a ceasefire,” he said.
Russia and Ukraine struck a deal last month to unblock grain exports from Black Sea ports and the first ship carrying Ukrainian grain to world markets since Moscow’s invasion five months ago is on its way to Lebanon.
Schroeder said solutions to crucial problems such as Crimea could be found over time, “maybe not over 99 years, like Hong Kong, but in the next generation”. He said an alternative to NATO membership for Ukraine might be armed neutrality, like Austria.
The future of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the scene of fierce fighting, however, was more complicated.
“A solution based on the Swiss cantonal model will have to be found,” he said, adding it would have to be seen if Putin would go back to a pre-war “contact line” in a ceasefire.
Schroeder, chancellor from 1998 to 2005, has criticised the war in Ukraine but refused to condemn Putin, whom he still calls a close personal friend. Distancing himself from Putin now would not help the situation, he said.
Increasingly derided in Germany for his pro-Russia stance, Schroeder has been stripped of his right to a publicly funded office.
A champion of the Nord Stream pipeline which carries Russian gas to Germany under the Baltic Sea, Schroeder is chairman of the shareholders’ committee of Nord Stream AG, operator of the pipeline majority-owned by Russia’s Gazprom, according to LinkedIn.
After intense criticism, Schroeder in May stood down from the board of Russia’s state-owned oil company Rosneft and declined a nomination for a board position at Gazprom.
(Reporting by Madeline Chambers; Editing by Nick Macfie)
Seems reasonable agreement to me…
The German SPD is trying hard to exclude Schroeder for that very reason(ing).
Sweeping mortgage boycott changes the face of dissent in China
IN a country that only tolerates dissent in small doses — and relies on property as its economic growth engine — a mortgage boycott by hundreds of thousands of middle-class Chinese has become a five-alarm fire for authorities.
It began with a 590-word letter penned by angry purchasers of the half-built Dynasty Mansion project, whose pleas for China Evergrande Group to complete homes they’d long been paying for had fallen on deaf ears. “All homebuyers with outstanding mortgage loans will stop paying,” unless construction resumes before Oct. 20, they threatened.
The ultimatum raced across social media platforms WeChat and Douyin, becoming a call to action for those caught out by China’s rapidly deflating property bubble. In days, the letter became a template for protests from Shanghai to Beijing, and Shenzhen to Zhengzhou, with homeowners cutting and pasting from it to draft their own boycott manifestos. Within four weeks, more than 320 projects in about 100 cities were facing similar protests, roiling markets and forcing authorities to corral banks and developers to defuse the unrest.
https://themalaysianreserve.com/2022/08/03/sweeping-mortgage-boycott-changes-the-face-of-dissent-in-china/
Before he went anti-Russian nutso, Joe Bloggs did a good review explaining why Evergrande is about $300B in debt. Worth watching again. Basically they spent a huge amount of money on companies and projects that had nothing to do with building:
EVERGRANDE – Real Reasons Evergrande Failed. 175 BILLION WASTED Leaving Company facing BANKRUPTCY (12 Feb 2022)
Crazy investing and very good overview as Joe Blogs usually does.
Thank you.
The worrisome aspect with all the funny monies out there by the Fed and CBs, how many more of senseless investments of zombie companies and projects need to fail?
What would the Amish do when people like this demand food… https://t.me/chiefnerd/4365
The Amish are like cults. There are usually too many mouths, and what happens is those not likely to adhere to its tenets are cast out, and never allowed back. Which is how they keep their pop in check.
“The Amish are like cults.”
No Kulm, they are like humans all throughout history, when famines, emigration and war limited the population.
You are a typical cultist full of hate for everyone else and incapable of accepting that you are no better than any other animal, striving and dying on this (for now) green earth.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/you-cant-switch-off-death-german-crematorium-boss-warns-energy-crisis-looms-2022-08-01/
“You can’t switch off death”
German crematorium boss worries about gas supplies.
somewhere in there is a ton of irony.
“somewhere in there is a ton of irony”
Only if you get most of your knowledge of WW2 from re-runs of Hogan’s Heroes.
It is unfortunate that so many people who are otherwise well aware that our society is built almost entirely on ignorance and bullsh1t should think it amusing to casually retail the foulest slanders about the German people where not even ten minutes’ consideration – much less a little reading or even common sense – would tell them that the claims that have been made are utterly impossible.
At the end of the WW2, literally tens of thousands of tons of German official documents were scoured by the Allies. On top of that the Allies were in possession of the entirety of radio communications, secret and otherwise, and written reports from the internment and transport camps within the area on the Eastern Front. This notwithstanding, the accusers of the Germans have yet to adduce even a single particle of paper supporting the idea that the German government ever planned or undertook any kind of extermination plan.
On a personal level, however, people might like to peruse the personal diary of Josef Goebbels, maintained in his own hand daily between the years 1923 and 1945. It runs to a good 75,000 pages yet it contains not a word in support of the claim that there was any attempt at a mass extermination. Was he writing this private diary but leaving that part of the story out so as to fool himself?
That grown people today still believe this story is the biggest indictment of the failure of the oh-so-critical-and-intelligent modern mind that I am aware of.
The story goes like this. “The Germans had industrial-sized murder camps. They killed six million people. They used poison gas.”
“Oh really, they didn’t just shoot them like the Soviets at Katyn? Seems odd. Anyway that must have made a terribly difficult mess. What happened to the bodies? The skeletal evidence must be overwhelming.”
“Not really. They burnt the bodies up in crematoria.”
“You mean those six single-person ovens over there? They burned up millions of bodies on them? Hmm. They must have had mountains of spare coal and, well, lots and lots and lots of spare time.” [it takes more than two hours to burn a body in a modern, gas-fired furnace and even that leaves significant skeletal remains which must be ground to powder for presentation in an urn]
“No, they just chopped down wood from the local forests…and on the eastern front, all of the millions of people they had already killed and buried, they dug them up in the face of the Soviet advance and cremated the bodies on railroad ties over pits…so there would be no evidence, you see, no remains.”
“That would have been quite an undertaking in the Polish swamplands. And was the wood not a little green?”
“Of course. They had to splash the bodies with petrol.”
“Remarkable.”
“But the Germans couldn’t hide all of the evidence, of course.”
“Of course not.”
“In what was the old Treblinka camp, they murdered more than 800,000 people and the remains of those people are still buried there, a few feet below the surface in an area the size of a mere football field.”
“That’s a tight squeeze. But at least it is clear evidence that those deniers would have to chew on. I suppose that truth-tellers have already applied the ground-penetrating radar to that area and turned up mountains and mountains of skeletal and other evidence.”
“Ground penetrating radar? No, we can’t use that. It would be against our traditions. You have to be respectful of the victims you know.”
I guess it wasn’t an either or situation. The camps were good “entertainment” for the sadistic “elites” I suppose.
Never underestimate the perversions carried by people with personality disorders.
Yeah, most Jews got a cap busted in them I suppose. No document trail needed.
Yes, energy constraints work wonders today, but the Germans, beset from all sides and without energy, found a way to cremate 11 millions. Perhaps BAU can really continue indefinitely, if the Holcust is true. Probably the laws of hol-ca-st trump the laws of physics.
I would not put it past the Elders to exaggerate … then make endless movies about the camps… as a PR exercise.
Who of us would say that we will be living in the end times?
While you are hiding from the terrible heat waves, the pests eat your crops
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/sardinian-farmers-suffer-worst-locust-invasion-over-30-years-2022-07-13/
Dig your grave and wait in it for the end.
There must be some friendly aliens who will take us into their spaceships and carry away from this hell.
patience, Grasshopper.
it’s not called Rest In Peace for nothing.
(meanwhile, freakin’ bAU tonight, baby, have you noticed?)
From the article..
Rising temperatures and lack of rain also play a big role as dry and compacted soil makes it easier for locusts to lay their eggs. read more
Torrid heat, the experts: “In Sardinia 10 degrees higher than the average”
The Island gasps, but the peak is yet to come. Alarm temperatures and fires also in the rest of Italy and throughout Europe
https://www.unionesarda.it/en/sardinia/torrid-heat-the-experts-quot-in-sardinia-10-degrees-higher-than-the-averagequot-svveh1vg
ALARM ALL OVER ITALY – The heat and fire alert does not only concern Sardinia. A large fire also developed in the Karst, near Trieste , where a motorway section was also closed, while near Orvieto the railway traffic on the direct Rome-Florence and on the slow line was interrupted following a large fire of scrub and wood.
IN EUROPE – Very high temperatures and fire alarms also in the rest of Europe, in this which according to experts is the sixth hottest summer ever. Suffice it to say that 40.2 degrees were recorded at London Heathrow airport for the first time.
In France , on the other hand, the situation is even more critical: in 64 municipalities , mainly along the Atlantic coast, the absolute record of heat has been beaten , while several devastating fires have been raging for days that have forced the evacuation of tens of thousands of people, particularly in Gironde, and destroyed hundreds of hectares of woods and vegetation, with temperatures still rising, between 37 and 40 degrees.
Thank God for Air conditioning..sarcasm
Maybe they need to learn to eat locusts.
UKR forces are suffering heavy losses in Donbass, their lines are cracking and they are retreating and deserting. It is thought that the final Donbass grind will soon turn into a rout like in Mariupol and Severodenetsk and that the Donbass SMO will be complete by the end of this month. It is widely speculated that gathered Russian forces will then sweep across to the Dnieper river that runs down the middle of UKR, before finishing off along the south.
And what?
The Ukrainans will start to send the missiles to the Russian territory.
Russia is turning into North Korea.
There is only one solution: a demilitarised zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border.
The Russians are finished as a civilized nation. They are committing suicide. The billions of the people from China, India etc. are ready to invade them, finish them and get what is left. They are just waiting to stab them from behind, when the West is finished with its operations.
This is about the finish of Russia and it’s division. Russia can not survive alone.
Got any video of this? I’ll even settle for video like that one we saw a few months ago that depicted a director and actors dressed as soldiers … in a fire fight… that was cool…
You believe those videos? Only your mum’s spare bedroom really exists!
The Russian leaders are a bunch of naive elderly gerontocracy idiots.
Nothing like the Americans then?
Thanks for the video. It is hard to know what is happening in Ukraine.
Yes it’s hard cuz there seems to be so few war photographers active in what is the biggest war on the planet at the moment – so we are told…. but so little actual coverage
We were also told there were terrorists in the parliamentary grounds in Wellington … unless you went there and saw it — you’d have believed that
A Saker take on the Pelosi drama.
> Nancy braves the Chinese dragon and wins?
So, it appears that Pelosi landed in Taiwan. This is a HUGE victory for the invincible USA and China with all its hollow threats has now lost face. That is how those evil commies are – they only understand the language of force, and when faced with the united forces of democracy they cave.
Right?
Right?!
Well….
Yes, if your expertise in international relation, military matters and China (or Russia) come from reading Tom Clancy’s books, then yes.
But there is another way to look at this:
First, in objective terms, this visit is a pure provocation with no practical effects whatsoever. Pelosi is as much a old teleprompter reading hag as President Brandon. Whatever real dealings the USA and Taiwan had to discuss, they would have done that either remotely or by arranging a meeting between people capable of thinking.
Second, just like Russia many times in the past, the Chinese drew a red line and then let the US cross it. Being the narcissistic civilization that it is, the West only saw this as a sign of “weakness”, “indecisiveness” or even “naivete”. What these folks fail to even think about is this: how do you feel most Chinese will react both to the visit and to the lack of Chinese reaction (so far!)? They will get mad and express their frustrations. Now look at it from the Chinese government’s point of view, rather then spending billions on anti-US propaganda they, instead, let the US humiliate China and thereby solidifying the Chinese population for the day when the real confrontation will take place.
[Sidebar: there is a direct connection between years of Kremlin’s rather weak and mostly verbal protests and the “sudden” appearance of the Russian ultimatum to the West followed by the SMO: the Kremlin literally “cooked” its own public opinion to the point were IT *demanded* strong action. Far from alienating or frightening most Russians, the SMO came as a huge relief to them: “we are FINALLY putting the foot down and taking real action”. That would not have been possible before 2018. Those in the West who saw Putin’s “indecisiveness” simply don’t understand the Russian mindset anymore than they understand the Chinese one. Simply put: you cannot prepare for war without preparing your own population for it! That is what Tom Clancy does to the brains of those reading him]
Third, let me ask you a simple question: who decided on the timing of Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan? The answer is obvious, it was the leaders of the USA. And you can bet that they had everything carefully lined up to make that visit happen in the best of possible circumstances. Now, a BASIC principle of warfare is that you do NOT let your enemy choose the time and place of the battle. Yes, yes, yes, in the western culture any “affront” (real or perceived) demands an immediate reaction. But the Chinese have been at this for many millennia, not just 200 years, and they know better and you can be sure that THEY, not the USA, will chose the time, place and mode of retaliation.
In sum, the woke-soaking narcissists who run the USA can celebrate how they showed “them Chinese commies” who is boss. Just like they did with Russia between 1991 and 2021. And then, when the Russians decided to act, Uncle Shmuel was caught totally off-guard and clueless as to how to deal with this sudden and direct threat.
Last but not least. That kind of imperial arrogance is something which not only impacts the already pretty angry Chinese population, it also infuriates all of Zone B, thereby creating the conditions for more defeats for the USA in Asia, Africa, the Indian Subcontinent, Central Asia and Latin America.
Most US Americans have absolutely no idea how offensive their condescending arrogance, constant flag waving, talks about their messianic mission for mankind and general narcissism is to the rest of the planet. But when you look objectively at the endless list of US failures pretty much anywhere on the planet, you can tell that there is something deep going on here. For some reason, the “Yankees go home” thing seems to be very contagious.
I think that Nancy Pelosi deserves our profound gratitude. She should get at least two medals:
– One from the CP of China in gratitude for her endless efforts to rally the people of China around their government and
– One from Russia, for her endless efforts into solidifying the Russian-Chinese alliance.
Truth be told, between Bliken and Pelosi the national security interests of China and Russia are in good hands 🙂
That’s a lot of spin from that article. China loss face, the world’s school yard bully encroached on China just like they did with Russia. At least Russia, gave the US the middle finger and went into Ukraine.
Will China do the same? Will China now consider joining forces with Russia in Ukraine? China just giving idle threats to the US doesn’t cut it because US foreign policy is driven by “Neocons” and “neocons love to neocon”. That’s what they live for. Look no further than John Bolton who’s belief is, he never met a war he didn’t like.
So expect the US to now push China because what the US really wants is the China’s South Seas. If China is really serious, they’ll invade Taiwan and install a puppet government. The US is just laughing at the Chinese fire drill taking place.
The only way you stop the school yard bully is to punch him in the mouth. China did not do that today. All talk on their part.
That sounds pretty childishly framed. You are likely trying to express something differently….
Okay then, China was the big loser today. I totally disagree with the premise that China pulled out the Ali “Rope-A-Dope” strategy and they are now the winner. They lost and the US won this round, expect more provocations from the US.
the USA “won” on all show and no substance.
yes these phools will provoke more, to try to get more brownie point “wins”.
unlike USA and Russia, the USA and China business relationship is much more balanced, where the buyers and sellers would more equally lose big time if conflict stopped trade between the two.
all in all, I don’t expect China to invade for many years, if ever.
but I do expect China to continue to strengthen ties with most of the rest of the world especially Russia.
these USA phools are trying to run last century’s Empire, but have yet to realize that most of the rest of the world has decided that they don’t want to be involved with the totally one sided Empire of Lies.
the USA is playing Chinese Checkers (see what I did there?) and China is playing 4D chess (Russia too).
“But the Chinese have been at this for many millennia, not just 200 years, and they know better and you can be sure that THEY, not the USA, will chose the time, place and mode of retaliation.”
USACIA deposed the pro-Russia Ukrainian president in 2014.
Russia almost immediately seized Crimea, then didn’t do much until the Great Day of 2/24/2022.
the USA phools are laughing tonight, but they were extremely shortsighted in regards to Russia circa 2014.
these phools surely are just as shortsighted in regards to China circa 2022.
We are beginning to see what the NATO sanctions on Russia are doing to the energy situation and the economy in Europe, and it would be interesting to see what NATO sanctions on China do to the supply lines of the USA itself.
If USA is going to severely disrupt the global economy then it probably should not have spent decades making its own economy severely dependent on that globalisation.
USA, like Europe, has the foresight and the strategic capacity of a goldfish. It has already added UKR to its many recent MENA debacles, and it now wants to go for a ‘full hand’ of debacles.
The outcome will be that the power balance and the energy flow will continue to divert away from the West and toward the rising powers of Eurasia. That was always likely anyway, and USA is just hastening that.
According to one of my work colleagues China will retaliate by shooting down some of americas space installations as foretold in the bible i think its in Revelations something about celestial beings he said he comes from America and He’s been raving on about “end days” and the bible for years now he believes we are living in the last stages of human existence and only the chosen one’s will survive Gods wrath
A China SMO toward Taiwan might well proceed along these lines.
I don’t expect an SMO will happen for many years, if ever.
full disclosure: I have been wrong before.
Americans are piling up credit card debt as they struggle to keep up with the high cost of living
New York (CNN)Americans are piling up credit card debt as they struggle to keep up with the high cost of living.
US household debt surpassed $16 trillion for the first time ever during the second quarter, the New York Federal Reserve said Tuesday.
Even as borrowing costs surge, the NY Fed said credit card balances increased by $46 billion last quarter.
Over the past year, credit card debt has jumped by $100 billion, or 13%, the biggest percentage increase in more than 20 years. Credit cards typically charge high interest rates when balances aren’t fully paid off, making this an expensive form of debt.
The NY Fed said the credit card binge at least partly reflects inflation as prices rise at the fastest pace in more than four decades.
“The impacts of inflation are apparent in high volumes of borrowing,” NY Fed researchers wrote in a blog post.
High inflation is also making it more expensive to carry a credit card balance because the Federal Reserve is aggressively raising borrowing costs. The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point last week for the second month in a row.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/02/economy/consumer-credit-borrowing-surge/index.html
Some of this higher debt level will be paid off immediately.
I know that the two trips we took in June and July of this year were significantly more expensive than corresponding trips would have been in 2018 or 2019. We didn’t take many trips in 2020 and 2021. So there is some of the rebound in travel besides inflation pushing the spending up.
At least a few of us doing the traveling make certain our bills get paid quickly, so the high interest rates don’t start piling up.
One guy i know after paying fpr food and electricity he only has twenty dollars left for mortgage payments the bank he took the loan with to buy a house is begging for more money he keeps on telling them I have only 20 dollars so ill give you that .
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e91b11a-77b1-4564-81d7-d136d6b45dc3_1187x1154.png