The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

It is my view that when energy supply falls, it falls not because reserves “run out.” It falls because economies around the world cannot afford to purchase goods and services made with energy products and using energy products in their operation. It is really a price problem. Prices cannot be simultaneously high enough for oil producers (such as Russia and Saudi Arabia) to ramp up production and remain low enough for consumers around the world to buy the goods and services that they are accustomed to buying.

Figure 1. Chart showing average annual Brent-equivalent oil prices in 2021$ based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy, together with bars showing periods when prices seemed to be favorable to producers.

We are now in a period of price conflict. Oil and other energy prices have remained too low for producers since at least mid-2014. At the same time, depletion of fossil fuels has led to higher costs of extraction. Often, the tax needs of governments of oil exporting countries are higher as well, leading to even higher required prices for producers if they are to continue to produce oil and raise their production. Thus, producers truly require higher prices.

Governments of countries affected by this inflation in price are quite disturbed: Higher prices for energy products mean higher prices for all goods and services. This makes citizens very unhappy because wages do not rise to compensate for this inflation. Prices today are high enough to cause significant inflation (about $107 per barrel for Brent oil (Europe) and $97 for WTI (US)), but still not high enough to satisfy the high-price needs of energy producers.

It is my expectation that these and other issues will lead to a very strangely behaving world economy in the months and years ahead. The world economy we know today is, in fact, a self-organizing system operating under the laws of physics. With less energy, it will start “coming apart.” World trade will increasingly falter. Fossil fuel prices will be volatile, but not necessarily very high. In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues I see.

[1] The issue causing the price conflict can be described as reduced productivity of the economy. The ultimate outcome of reduced productivity of the economy is fewer total goods and services produced by the economy.

Figure 2 shows that, historically, there is an extremely high correlation between world energy consumption and the total quantity of goods and services produced by the world economy. In my analysis, I use Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) GDP because it is not distorted by the rise and fall of the US dollar relative to other currencies.

Figure 2. Correlation between world GDP measured in “Purchasing Power Parity” (PPP) 2017 International $ and world energy consumption, including both fossil fuels and renewables. GDP is as reported by the World Bank for 1990 through 2021 as of July 26, 2022; total energy consumption is as reported by BP in its 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The reason such a high correlation exists is because it takes energy to perform each activity that contributes to GDP, such as lighting a room or transporting goods. Energy consumption which is cheap to produce and growing rapidly in quantity is ideal for increasing energy productivity, since it allows factories to be built cheaply and raw materials and finished goods to be transported at low cost.

Humans are part of the economy. Food is the energy product that humans require. Reducing food supply by 20% or 40% or 50% cannot be expected to work well. The economy suffers the same difficulty.

In recent years, depletion has been making the extraction of fossil fuel resources increasingly expensive. One issue is that the resources that were easiest to extract and closest to where they were needed were extracted first, leaving the highest cost resources for extraction later. Another issue is that with a growing population, the governments of oil exporting countries require higher tax revenue to support the overall needs of their countries.

Intermittent wind and solar are not substitutes for fossil fuels because they are not available when they are needed. If several months’ worth of storage could be added, the total cost would be so high that these energy sources would have no chance of being competitive. I recently wrote about some of the issues with renewables in Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer.

Rising population is a second problem leading to falling efficiency. In order to feed, clothe and house a rising population, a growing quantity of food must be produced from essentially the same amount of arable land. More water for the rising population is required for the rising population, often obtained by deeper wells or desalination. Clearly, the need to use increased materials and labor to work around problems caused by rising world population adds another layer of inefficiency.

If we also add the cost of attempting to work around pollution issues, this further adds another layer of inefficiency in the use of energy supplies.

More technology is not a solution, either, because adding any type of complexity requires energy to implement. For example, adding machines to replace current workers requires the use of energy products to make and operate the machines. Moving production to cheaper locations overseas (another form of complexity) requires energy for the transport of goods from where they are transported to where they are used.

Figure 2 shows that the world economy still requires more energy to produce increasing GDP, even with the gains achieved in technology and efficiency.

Because of energy limits, the world economy is trying to change from a “growth mode” to a “shrinkage mode.” This is something very much like the collapse of many ancient civilizations, including the fall of Rome in 165 to 197 CE. Historically, such collapses have unfolded over a period of years or decades.

[2] In the past, the growth rate of GDP has exceeded that of energy consumption. As the economy changes from growth to shrinkage, we should expect this situation to reverse: The rate of shrinkage of GDP will be greater than the rate of shrinkage of energy consumption.

Figure 3 shows that, historically, world economic growth has been slightly higher than the growth in energy consumption. This growth in energy consumption is based on total consumption of fossil fuels and renewables, as calculated by BP.

Figure 3. Annual growth in world PPP GDP compared to annual growth in consumption of energy supplies. World PPP GDP is data provided by the World Bank; world energy consumption is based on data of BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In fact, based on the discussion in Section [1], this is precisely the situation we should expect: GDP growth should exceed energy consumption growth when the economy is growing. Unfortunately, Section [1] also suggests that we can expect this favorable relationship to disappear as energy supply begins to shrink because of growing inefficiencies in the system. In such a case, GDP is likely to shrink even more quickly than energy supply shrinks. One reason this happens is because complexity of many types cannot be maintained as energy supply shrinks. For example, international supply lines are likely to break if energy supplies fall too low.

[3] Interest rates play an important role in encouraging the development of energy resources. Generally falling interest rates are very beneficial; rising interest rates are quite detrimental. As the economy shifts toward shrinkage, the pattern we can expect is higher interest rates, rather than lower. As the limits of energy extraction are hit, these higher rates will tend to make the economy shrink even faster than it would otherwise shrink.

Part of what has allowed growing energy consumption in the period shown in Figures 2 and 3 is rising debt levels at generally lower interest rates. Falling interest rates together with debt availability make investment in factories and mines more affordable. They also help citizens seeking to buy a new car or home because the lower monthly payments make these items more affordable. Demand for energy products tends to rise, allowing the prices of commodities to rise higher than they would otherwise rise, thus making their production more profitable. This encourages more fossil fuel extraction and more development of renewables.

Once the economy starts to shrink, debt levels seem likely to shrink because of defaults and because of reluctance of lenders to lend, for fear of defaults. Interest rates will tend to rise, partly because of the higher inflation rates and partly because of the higher level of expected defaults. This debt pattern in turn will reinforce the tendency toward lower GDP growth compared to energy consumption growth. This is a major reason that raising interest rates now is likely to push the economy downward.

[4] With fewer goods and services produced by the economy, the world economy must eventually shrink. We should not be surprised if this shrinkage in some ways echoes the shrinkage that took place in the 2008-2009 recession and the 2020 shutdowns.

The GDP of the world economy is the goods and services produced by the world economy. If the economy starts to shrink, total world GDP will necessarily fall.

What happens in the future may echo what has happened in the past.

Figure 4. World energy consumption per capita, based on information published in BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Central bank officials felt it was important to stop inflation in oil prices (and indirectly in food prices) back in the 2004 to 2006 period. This indirectly led to the 2008-2009 recession as parts of the world debt bubble started to collapse and many jobs were lost. We should not be surprised if a much worse version of this happens in the future.

The 2020 shutdowns were characterized in most news media as a response to Covid-19. Viewed on an overall system basis, however, they really were a response to many simultaneous problems:

  • Covid-19
  • A hidden shortage of fossil fuels that was not reflected as high enough prices for producers to ramp up production
  • Hidden financial problems that threatened a new version of the 2008 financial collapse
  • Factories in many parts of the world that were operating at far less than capacity
  • Workers demonstrating in the streets with respect to low wages and low pensions
  • Airlines with financial problems
  • Citizens frustrated by long commutes
  • Very many old, sick people in care homes of various types, passing around illnesses
  • An outsized medical system that still desired to increase profits
  • Politicians who wanted a way to better control their populations–perhaps rationing of output would work around an inadequate total supply of goods and services

Shutting down non-essential activities for a while would temporarily reduce demand for oil and other energy products, making it easier for the rest of the system to appear profitable. It would give an excuse to increase borrowing (and money printing) to hide the financial problems for a while longer. It would keep people at home, reducing the need for oil and other energy products, hiding the fossil fuel shortage for a while longer. It would force the medical system to reorganize, offering more telephone visits and laying off non-essential workers. Many individual citizens could reduce time lost to commuting, thanks to new work-from-home rules and internet connections. The homebuilding and home remodeling industries were stimulated, offering work to those who had been laid off.

The impacts of the shutdowns were greatest on poor people in poor countries, such as those in Central and South America. For example, many people in the vacation and travel industries were laid off in poor countries. People making fancy clothing for people going to conferences and weddings were laid off, as were people raising flowers for fancy events. These people had trouble finding new employment. They are at increased risk of dying, either from Covid-19 or inadequate nutrition, making them susceptible to other illnesses.

We should not be surprised if some near-term problems echo what has happened in the past. Debt defaults and falling home prices are very real possibilities, for example. Also, making a new crisis a huge focal point and scaring the population into staying at home has proven to be a huge success in temporarily reducing energy consumption without actual rationing. Some people believe that monkeypox or a climate change crisis will be the next area of focus in an attempt to reduce energy consumption, and thus lower oil prices.

[5] There is likely to be more conflict in a world with not enough goods and services to go around.

With a shrinking amount of finished goods and services, we should not be surprised if we see more conflict in the world. Many wars are resource wars. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with other countries indirectly involved, certainly could be considered a resource war. Russia wants higher prices for its exports of many kinds, including energy exports. I wrote about the conflict issue in a post I wrote in April 2022: The world has a major crude oil problem; expect conflict ahead.

World War I and World War II were almost certainly about energy resources. Peak coal in the UK seems to be closely related to World War I. Inadequate coal in Germany and lack of oil in Japan (and elsewhere) seem to be related to World War II.

[6] We seem to be facing a new set of problems in addition to the problems that gave rise to the Covid-19 shutdowns. These are likely to shape how any new crisis plays out.

Some recently added problems include the following:

  • Debt has risen to a high level, relative to 2008. This debt will be harder to repay with higher interest rates.
  • The US dollar is very high relative to other currencies. The high level of the US dollar causes problems for borrowers from outside the US in repaying their loans. It also makes energy prices very high outside the US.
  • Oil, coal and natural gas are all in short supply world-wide, leading to falling productivity of the overall system Item 1. If extraction is to continue, prices need to be much higher.
  • Difficulties with broken supply lines make it hard to ramp up production of manufactured goods of many kinds.
  • Inadequate labor supply is an increasing problem. Baby boomers are now retiring; not enough young people are available to take their place. Increased illness, associated with Covid-19 and its vaccines, is also an issue.

These issues point to a situation where rising interest rates seem likely to send the world economy downward because of debt defaults and failing businesses of many kinds.

The high dollar relative to other currencies leads to the potential for the system to break apart under stress. Alternatively, the US dollar may play a smaller role in international trade than in the past.

[7] Many parts of the economy are likely to find that the promised payments to be made to them cannot really take place.

We have been taught that money is a store of value. We have also been taught that government promises, such as pensions, unemployment insurance and health insurance can be counted on. If there are fewer goods and services available in total, the whole system must change to reflect the fact that there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. There may not even be enough food to go around.

As the world economy hits limits, we cannot assume that the money we have in the bank will really be able to purchase the goods we want in the future. The goods may not be available to purchase, or the government may put a restriction (such as $200 per week) on how much we can withdraw from our account each week, or inflation may make goods we currently buy unaffordable.

If we think about the situation, the world will be producing fewer goods and services each year, regardless of what promises that have been made in the past might say. For example, the number of bushels of wheat available worldwide will start falling, as will the number of new cars and the number of computers. Somehow, the goods and services people expected to be available will start disappearing. If the problem is inflation, the affordable quantity will start to fall.

We don’t know precisely what will happen, but these are some ideas, especially as higher interest rates become a problem:

  • Many businesses will fail. They will default on their debt; the value of their stock will go to zero. They will lay off their employees.
  • Employees and governments will also default on debts. Banks will have difficulty remaining solvent.
  • Pension plans will have nowhere nearly enough money to pay promised pensions. Either they will default or prices will rise so high that the pensions do not really purchase the goods that recipients hoped for.
  • The international system of trade is likely to start withering away. Eventually, most goods will be locally produced with whatever resources are available.
  • Many government agencies will become inadequately funded and fail. Intergovernmental agencies, such as the European Union and the United Nations, are especially vulnerable.
  • Governments are likely to reduce services provided because tax revenues are too low. Even if more money is printed, it cannot buy goods that are not there.
  • Citizens may become so unhappy with their governments that they overthrow them. Simpler, cheaper governmental systems, offering fewer services, may follow.

[8] It is likely that, in inflation-adjusted dollars, energy prices will not rise very high, for very long.

We are likely dealing with an economy that is basically falling apart. Factories will produce less because they cannot obtain financing. Purchasers of finished goods and services will have difficulty finding jobs that pay well and loans based on this employment. These effects will tend to keep commodity prices too low for producers. While there may be temporary spurts of higher prices, finished goods made with high-cost energy products will be too expensive for most citizens to afford. This will tend to push prices back down again.

[9] Conclusion.

We are dealing with a situation that economists, politicians and central banks are ill-equipped to handle. Raising interest rates may squeeze out a huge share of the economy. The economy was already “at the edge.” We can’t know for certain.

Virtually no one looks at the economy from a physics point of view. For one thing, the result is too distressing to explain to citizens. For another, it is fashionable for scientists of all types to produce papers and have them peer reviewed by others within their own ivory towers. Economists, politicians and central bankers don’t care about the physics of the situation. Even those basing their analysis on Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) tend to focus on only a narrow portion of what I explained in Section [1]. Once researchers have invested a huge amount of time and effort in one direction, they cannot consider the possibility that their approach may be seriously incomplete.

Unfortunately, the physics-based approach I am using indicates that the world’s economy is likely to change dramatically for the worse in the months and years ahead. Economies, in general, cannot last forever. Populations outgrow their resource bases; resources become too depleted. In physics terms, economies are dissipative structures, not unlike ecosystems, plants and animals. They can only exist for a limited time before they die or end their operation. They tend to be replaced by new, similar dissipative structures.

While the current world economy cannot last indefinitely, humans have continued to exist through many bottlenecks in the past, including ice ages. It is likely that some humans, perhaps in mutated form, will make it through the current bottleneck. These humans will likely create a new economy that is better adapted to the Earth as it changes.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Financial Implications, oil shortages and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

2,771 Responses to The world’s self-organizing economy can be expected to act strangely, as energy supplies deplete

  1. Rodster says:

    Come on let’s get this show on the road. Let’s see some nukes light up the sky. Fast is chomping at the bits for UEP. 🤓

    “White House Orders US Carrier Strike Group To Stay Near Taiwan Longer Than Planned, Says China ‘Overreacting’“

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:


      his UTI is almost here!

      or is it the CEP?

      yes, the CEP is here!

      well, almost here, maybe Q4, and if not, there’s always 2023.

      then the acronym can be changed for a third time.

      or fourth time.

      it’s all good.

  2. Mirror on the wall says:

    Russia says that it has apprehended documents in USA bio labs in UKR that show that USA engineered and spread both covid and monkeypox around the world.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Of course they did — and Russia helped… and Russia is injecting…

      This is all theatre… they are toying with you

    • ivanislav says:

      I clicked through the video and didn’t see anything about that (didn’t watch the whole thing) – can you point me at a timepoint? All I saw was discussion of military positions etc.

      • Mirror on the wall says:


        • ivanislav says:

          Thanks. He referenced a Russian report, but I have a hard time believing they leave documents like that just lying around with the underlings (peripheral research labs).

        • Perhaps what was meant was that the bio-labs in Ukraine worked on the viruses that now seem to be spreading around the world. Maybe there were US planning documents in Ukraine saying that there were other parallel sites in other countries as well.

  3. Fast Eddy says:

    Who thinks masks are a good idea?


    • Right. The air tends to still be expelled around the masks.

      Also, people tend to reuse the masks, without washing them. There can be a build up of germs in the masks. I am not certain how this works. Leaving them in the sun for a while would seem to be a solution.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I generally refuse to wear a mask — if I walk into a shop and they tell me to mask up I leave… or if I am in the mood I tell them I have an exemption because I have heart damage due to the booster… but usually I leave.

        I do have a mask though – just in case… it’s months old and I leave it hanging on the gear shifter in my vehicle… it’s a bit dirty …

  4. Fast Eddy says:

    Police Change Account of Crash That Killed Indiana Rep. Jackie Walorski
    NBC New York|5 hours ago

    Police have changed their description of the crash that killed Indiana Republican U.S. Rep. Jackie Walorski, saying that it was the SUV in which she was a passenger crossed a state highway’s centerline and caused the head-on crash.


    • ivanislav says:

      Thanks to wireless connectivity tech and drive-by-wire, this can happen to any troublesome politician 🙂

  5. Michael Le Merchant says:

    ‘Financial monsters’: China’s bad banks complicate property crisis

    • CTG says:

      As stated, I have thought hard and long and going through all possible scenarios (all in a logical and informed manner).. there are no options for the world. None. Be it China, Russia, EU, USA, Australia, developing, developed, none.

      We have long past the event horizon (probably early 2000) and we are now hurtling towards the black hole. How many times have you read on MSM or from “experts” that we are in uncharted territory? The ship goes one way.. it is only in and not out. Once you have entered uncharted territories, unless you turn back, you will always be in uncharted territories, Is it that difficult?

      • Fast Eddy says:

        You are correct. They ran out of road in 2019. And UEP was triggered.

        There is no alternative that allows BAU to continue. It’s finished. It’s on life support.

        And we must be exterminated. No Build Back Better… not chipping the humans… no cull.

        Total annihilation … otherwise we get this — on steroids (they were pissed cuz the price of a bottle of water was jacked up… and they burned the place to the ground… women were raped… )

        • Tim Groves says:

          The black hole analogy is a good one.

          It has been suggested that when you approach close the singularity of a gravitational black hole (and don’t try this at home, kids!), you reach a point where you undergo “spaghettification” as the gravitational force on different parts of your body differs so much that you become elongated and stretched.

          In the economic black hole we are hurtling towards, our money will experience a kind of “spaghettification” in the form of a burst of hyperinflation. And it’s gone!

          And then we will be left without our accustomed life support systems, as has happened to people in war zones throughout history, and with no prospect of being rescued, not even by Bob Geldof!!

          • Minority of One says:

            When Bob organised Band Aid to help starving Ethiopians (1984), the population of Ethiopia was about 39 M. It is now about 123 M.

            Ethiopia Population 1950-2022

            Unfortunately for Ethiopians, Bob is unlikely to assist when the next famine hits.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Some years ago I went to Ethiopia to trek… me and a mate walked 4 or 5 days into the mountains with a guide (and a guy with an AK47.. cuz apparently there are some issue with the Eritreans)

              Anyhow … our guide’s name was David… a cheerful African fellow… and at the end we decided to Make His Day and tip him $200 … he was ecstatic as you can image…

              We’re at this restaurant after the trek (check out some of the reviews haha and the operator of the company employing David rings…

              ring ring ring… hello … hey it’s Alex … hi Alex what’s up … have you guys seen David? Nope … we just paid him and he went off the other day … hmmm… he’s supposed to take some people out tomorrow … he asked if we had given him a tip — yes – how much — $200…. oh shit… that’s too much…

              Apparently cheerful David is a big fan of meth… and Alex said — he’ll be on a bender for a week with that amount of $$$…. hmmm.. sorry … we didn’t know .. no problem not your fault…

    • Fast Eddy says:

      ‘Financial monsters’: China’s bad banks complicate property crisis

      Distressed asset management companies highlight the challenge Beijing faces in mobilising rescue options

      • Thanks for the link. It starts out:

        To contain the fallout from the Asian financial crisis two decades ago, Beijing set up a group of bad banks and packed them with the country’s most toxic debts. But with deepening distress in China’s property sector threatening to spark wider economic turmoil, those bad banks are now struggling to help.

        The problem is that the balance sheets of China’s “Big Four” asset management companies — China Cinda Asset Management, China Huarong Asset Management, China Great Wall Asset Management and China Orient Asset Management — have become so bloated that their capacity is restricted.

        The groups are “financial monsters”, said Chen Long, a partner at Beijing-based consultancy Plenum, “I would not count on them to play a big part” in addressing the property crisis.

        Some other solution seems to be needed.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Seems once the bad bank solution fails … the only ‘solution’ …

          Is UEP … cuz otherwise it’s chaos….

          Every been near a mob… there is no reasoning with a mob … you cannot say – hey guys calm down … let’s discuss this… and once the mob knows the authorities cannot stop them … they will do very bad things….

          In that Woodstock video they interview people who participated in the looting ‘because everyone else was doing it’.

          Lord of the Flies – on Steroids. Adults are far worse than children

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Yesterday, an arbitrator ruled that universities in Ontario can enforce COVID-19 ‘vaccine’ mandates this Fall, even if Public Health Units do not require it.

    One of our munchkins is applying for chef school in January – the other one is intent on a computer science/accounting degree… starting January..

    It will be extremely disheartening if they get turned away again due to being unvaxxed (they of course are unaware of UEP).

  7. Fast Eddy says:

    Jim Breuer on Rogan

    • Rodster says:

      This just shows the level of BS surrounding CV19. Big Pharma and Tony “POS” Fauci saw dollar signs. They weren’t going to allow anything to get in the way of their treasure chest.

  8. Fast Eddy says:

    COVID-Period Mass Vaccination Campaign and Public Health Disaster in the USA From age/state-resolved all-cause mortality by time, age-resolved vaccine delivery by time, and socio-geo-economic data.,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/

    None of this matters — the CovIDIOTS are not seeing this

    • Interesting report! Looked at by state, US Covid death percentages correlate highly with poverty rates and with obesity rates by state. With respect to median household income, deaths correlate significantly with lower median income.

      The authors believe that the data indicates a certain portion of the vaccine program led to a lot of deaths among young individuals. In particular, the article raise the point that the aggressive “vaccine equity” campaigns that captured immunocompromised young adults in Southern states, may have caused disproportionate mortality among vulnerable young adults in late-summer-2021.

  9. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UN, IMF disagree on who should foot the bill of the energy crisis

    António Guterres is backing windfall taxes on “immoral” oil and gas profits, while the IMF argues costs should be passed to consumers

    UN chief António Guterres called for windfall taxes on oil and gas this week, arguing it is “immoral” for fossil fuel companies to reap record profits while ordinary people suffer from a cost of living squeeze.

    In recent weeks, oil and gas companies have reported bumper profits. BP reported profits of $8.45bn between April and June this year – more than triple the amount it made at the same time last year. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Shell and Total reaped $51bn between them and returned $23bn to shareholders in dividends and buybacks, according to Reuters.

    “This grotesque greed is punishing the poorest and most vulnerable people, while destroying our only common home,” Guterres said during a media briefing on Wednesday. “I urge all governments to tax these excessive profits, and use the funds to support the most vulnerable people through these difficult times.”

    The IMF agreed that governments should shield the most vulnerable from price hikes but discouraged broader consumer subsidies.

    In a blog post, Oya Celasun, assistant director of the IMF’s European department, wrote that policymakers “should allow the full increase in fuel costs to pass to end-users” to encourage energy savings and moving away from fossil fuels.

    “Governments cannot prevent the loss in real national income arising from the terms-of-trade shock,” said Celasun. She added that governments should provide targeted relief for the most vulnerable groups, for example in the form of income support.

    Fully offsetting the cost of living increase for the bottom 20% of households would cost governments 0.4% of GDP on average for the whole of 2022. It would cost 0.9% of GDP to fully compensate the bottom 40% of households, the IMF calculates.

    “The IMF and UN are both clearly conscious of the need to protect the most vulnerable consumers but they disagree on who should bear the costs of doing so,” Olena Borodyna, a transition risk analyst at ODI, told Climate Home News.

    “Fundamentally, the two have a different position on how to encourage low-carbon transition – the IMF prefers market solutions and wants to incentivise consumers towards energy efficiency. The UN, on the other hand, is siding with the position of climate activists and politicians who are making a moral case for taxing fossil fuel companies amid the cost of living crisis,” Borodyna said.

    • Of course, offsetting the cost of living increases for the bottom 20% of households could be expected to raise demand, and thus raise fossil fuel prices.

      Taxing the fossil fuel companies would make it certain that they cannot produce more in the future, raising the likely cost in the future.

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    DC Schools Will Expel Students Who Choose Not to Get the COVID-19 Vaccine

    “Schools in Washington, D.C. are requiring all students aged 12 and older to get the COVID-19 vaccine before returning to the classroom this fall. Students who don’t get it won’t be allowed in the classroom and could face expulsion (via Council of the District of Columbia)”

    • Rodster says:

      With the sad state of public schools in the US, that might be a good thing to be expelled from the worthless public school system.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’ve got a library of books and Great Courses (full college lectures on various subjects) that is into the many hundreds… I learn more in a month listening to these than I did in 4 years of university.

        Then throw in all online research (many hours per day)… and that university degree — is worthless in comparison.

        • Rodster says:

          When I went to school in the mid 70’s, I was taught a trade for free. If a person wanted to go to College to major in something it was a path to big bucks. A bachelors degree was pretty much an equivalent to a Masters today. Colleges back then were not churning out worthless degrees like today. If you graduated college, you earned it. Today it’s wokedom and party life.

      • MM says:

        A child has a lot of relations from his school mates.
        Being expelled would make their life much more miserable.
        I mean, it is the best school for life to understand that you are a useless slave automaton on the other hand.

        The children will beg their parents to get vaxxed.
        Pure horror.

    • I notice the article says,

      Students can get exemptions if a parent or guardian provides written evidence receiving a vaccine would violate their religious beliefs or if a physician certifies in writing it is unsafe for the student to get the shot.

      The mandate applies not only to public schools in the district but also public charter schools and private schools.

      So students can opt out. The only other way of opting out is for families to home school their children.

      • ivanislav says:

        They cannot opt out without lying unless the reason truly is religious beliefs, which for most people it isn’t. Moreover, one shouldn’t concede the point that the state has a right intrude on our bodily autonomy or bar us from society. These exemptions are unsatisfactory.

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    At least four people have died during protests over the cost of electricity in a South African township, police officials have said.

    On Monday, residents angry at the high cost of basic services barricaded roads with burning tyres and set ablaze a municipal building in Thembisa township, northeast of the financial hub, Johannesburg.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    How is it zero emission if it’s charged using coal?

    Notice how the interviewer does not ask that question …. it’s an obvious question – no?

    Not allowed by the Ministry of Truth.

    Same reason why when GW is discussed it is not permitted to ask why Leo and Obama and Gore have big $$$ tied up in properties that will be impacted by rising seas.

    Not allowed. Not allowed. Not allowed. DUH

    Sec. Buttigieg: “The Long-Term Goal Has to Be to Get to Full True Zero Emission”

    “We’re trying not to dictate every single step of this transition”

  13. Rodster says:

    China at the Crossroads by CHS

    Excerpt: “Watch where capital is flowing. That’s pretty much all you need to know to predict the future. When energy is cheap and abundant, all sorts of things become possible. When energy becomes scarce and costly, all sorts of things are no longer financially viable. Economies that only function if energy is cheap and abundant unravel when energy becomes scarce and costly.”

    • Good quote! CHS has been reading OFW.

    • I notice that CHS links to this Bloomberg article at the end:

      China Is Pariah for Global Investors as Xi’s Policies Backfire

      “The supertanker of Western capital is starting to turn away from China,” said Matt Smith of Ruffer LLP, a $31 billion investment firm that recently shut its Hong Kong office after more than a decade because of shrinking demand for on-the-ground equity research. “It’s just easier to put China aside for now when you see no end in sight from Covid Zero and the return of geopolitical risk.”

      • MM says:

        Zeihan said, China will be done at the end of this year.
        It is unclear for outsiders to see if the world can manage without Chinese manufacturing. He thinks so.
        If there is nothing on the shelves and we be happy, this will work nicely.

        • ivanislav says:

          Zeihan says all sorts of dumb stuff. Remember those M777 howtizer wonderweapons? He said they are a game-changer and will allow Ukraine to launch a decapitation strategy against the Russian military. How did that work out for them?

          He deserves credit for being one of the few observers to routinely highlight demographics for the various blocs (not just China), but that’s about it.

          • Kowalainen says:

            With “wunderwaffe” of various sort there’s no need for complex systems of engagement, doctrines (tactics, combined arms operations, comms, sensor suites, logistics in rough battlefield conditions, etc.)

            Just a bunch of tryhard attaboys with targeting info from US satellites beating around the bush with howitzers and javelins “popping” russkie assets would suffice (in fantasy land).

            The russkies doesn’t even need to push until it is a walk over. Just waiting for the trickle feed of wunderwaffe would suffice, popping them off one by one while clearing the rat holes and YOLO trenches filled with miserable attaboys.

            But hey, WTF do I know?

            Either way it is too late now. Building complex strategies and tactics is at least two decades in the making, assuming the MIC is capable of producing competent armaments. Which is highly doubtful given a “leadership” totally out of touch living egotistical fantasy land tripping hard on their own product and egos.

          • Xabier says:

            I’ve watched a few Zeihan videos: they simply reek of narcissicism, poor reasoning, and BS.

            Most unlikeable fellow, but he seems to have some kind of fan base, perhaps because he reassures people that the US does have a future after all?

            • ivanislav says:

              That’s my take; you get airtime and thus viewership/income for propagating the desired narrative.

            • MM says:

              It is not me that desires his output but he is sort of an influencer in the US military. Do not forget that.

        • Alex says:

          I’ve seen one Zeihan’s video about oil. It was some cheesy pro-American propaganda.

          Unsurprisingly, his Wikipedia entry says that “he is a former analyst for the Austin-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor.”

  14. Minority of One says:

    UK – Martin Lewis says the latest estimates are that utility bills will go up 77% in October. Many people are struggling with the 54% rise last April.

    Martin Lewis Explains How YOUR Bills Are Going Up Again

    It is going to be an ‘interesting’ winter.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    CTV news reports that Canada’s British Columbia public health removes COVID vaccine data: “BCCDC removes data on COVID-19 infection outcomes by vaccination status from dashboard”; WHY? Think!!!!

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Every nation shown, have explosions in deaths post COVID gene injection 1st & 2nd booster; it appears that there is a serious DOSE response & the more shots, greater severity response; Africa NO? Why?

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Jessica Funk
    Writes Unpacking Truth

    Liked by Etana Hecht
    Thank you for writing about this! As a dentist, we review medical history updates with all of our patients. In my 25 years of doing this, I have never seen the number of cancers as I have seen in the past two years. Breast cancer, lung cancer, brain tumors, kidney cancer the list goes on and on. We have already lost at least two patients due to the aggressive nature. We have also had patients in remission that have had their cancer return aggressively.

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    “I’m Watching People Being Killed”

    Dr. Kruger stated that she sees vaccination as a trigger for fast-growing tumors and autoimmune diseases. She’s seeing a lot of inflammation alongside tumors, and of course, it’s not only breast cancer. Many other pathologists have reported to Dr. Kruger that they’re seeing an elevation in cancers, cancers in multiple organs, and rare cancers.

    She ended off by saying “I studied medicine because I wanted to help people. But now it feels like I’m watching people being killed and there’s nothing I can do”.

    The first step to solving any issue is acknowledging there’s a problem. We have a huge problem, and in order to begin to resolve it, it must be acknowledged. It’s time to start pressuring doctors to speak out. Any doctor who’s aware enough to understand that something is off must begin to address the issue. An additional motivation may be the pressure of knowing that it’s all about to blow up, and they don’t want to be standing on the wrong side of the line when it does.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Dr. Kruger initially thought that these turbo cancers, as she calls them, were due to delayed doctor appointments from Covid lockdowns, but that period is long over, and the tumors are still growing aggressively, and in younger patients. She reported some of these cases to the FDA, and while some higher-ups initially agreed to meet with her, they canceled the meeting with no explanation the next day and sent a phone agent to take her report instead.

    Six months ago Dr. Kruger appeared at a panel in Germany to present her theory that vaccination is causing aggressive tumors, and she asked for help from the doctors at that summit in collecting data. Unfortunately, few of them have been willing to collect that data and share it with her.

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    Doctors for Covid Ethics posted an interview with her where she shared her concerns about unusual features that have been showing up in samples from the past year.

    Age – The average ages of the samples she received dropped, with a rise in the number of samples from people in their 30’s-50’s.

    Size – It used to be unusual for Dr. Kruger to find a tumor 3 cm in size. In this new environment, she’s regularly seeing tumors of 4 cm, 8 cm, 10 cm, and the occasional 12 cm. In a shocking anecdote, 2 weeks ago she found a 16 cm tumor that took up an entire breast.

    Multiple Tumors – Dr. Kruger has begun to see more cases of multiple tumors growing in the same patient, sometimes even in both breasts. She had 3 cases within 3 weeks of patients who had tumors growing in multiple organs. One had tumors in his/her breast, pancreas and lungs within months of getting vaccinated.

    Recurrence – There has been an uptick in patients who have been in remission from their cancer for many years, suddenly getting an aggressive recurrence of their cancer shortly after vaccination.

    It would suck if one was not a MOREON and was vaccinated… cuz you’d spend all your time worrying about which VAIDS inspired disease is gonna get you. But MOREONS — well MOREONS reject the existence of VAIDS — even though they are always sick with something these days…. so they just keep on Boosting hahaha…

    They can’t wait for the Extra Strength Booster – coming in a month or two hahaha…

    F789ing MOREONS… f789ing… moreons…

  21. Fast Eddy says:

    We have a problem.

    I hate the title of this post, but there was no other title for this post. We’re at the point where information is coming through fast and furious, and while that helps push us to that tipping point we’re all working towards, it comes with so much pain and suffering.

    Chief of Pathology

    Dr. Ute Kruger is a researcher and senior physician at Lunds University in Sweden. She’s the Chief of Pathology, a field that she’s worked in for the last 25 years, with a specialty in breast cancer diagnosis for the past 18 years. She’s studied thousands of autopsies and breast cancer samples. She’s extremely familiar with the industry and patient age, tumor size, and malignancy grade are all within her field of expertise and have had a natural rhythm throughout her career. That natural rhythm came to a halt in 2021 once the vaccine rollout began.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

  23. Rodster says:

    Because the Government has never seen a crisis it did not like.

    “US Declares Monkeypox Public Health Emergency”

    The Biden administration has officially declared monkeypox a public health emergency.

    “I want to make an announcement today that I will be declaring a public health emergency,” HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra said during a Thursday call with reporters.

    “We’re prepared to take our response to the next level in addressing this virus.”

    “We urge every American to kick monkey pox seriously and to take responsibility and help us tackle this virus,” he continued.

  24. Herbie Ficklestein says:

    Still, for the last decade, that theoretical wet bulb 35° C number has been considered to be the point beyond which humans can no longer regulate their bodies’ temperatures. But recent laboratory-based research by Vecellio and his colleagues suggests that a general, real-world threshold for human heat stress is much lower, even for young and healthy adults.

    The researchers tracked heat stress in two dozen subjects ranging in age from 18 to 34, under a variety of controlled climates. In the series of experiments, the team varied humidity and temperature conditions within an environmental chamber, sometimes holding temperature constant while varying the humidity, and sometimes vice versa.

    The subjects exerted themselves within the chamber just enough to simulate minimal outdoor activity, walking on a treadmill or pedaling slowly on a bike with no resistance. During these experiments, which lasted for 1.5 to two hours, the researchers measured the subjects’ skin temperatures using wireless probes and assessed their core temperatures using a small telemetry pill that the subjects swallowed.

    In warm and humid conditions, the subjects in the study were unable to tolerate heat stress at wet bulb temperatures closer to 30° or 31° C, the team estimates. In hot and dry conditions, that wet bulb temperature was even lower, ranging from 25° to 28° C, the researchers reported in the February Journal of Applied Physiology. For context, in a very dry environment at about 10 percent humidity, a wet bulb temperature of 25° C would correspond to an air temperature of about 50° C (122° F).

    These results suggest that there is much more work to be done to understand what humans can endure under real-world heat and humidity conditions, but that the threshold may be much lower than thought, Vecellio says. The 2010 study’s theoretical finding of 35° C may still be “the upper limit,” he adds. “We’re showing the floor.”

    And that’s for young, healthy adults doing minimal activity. Thresholds for heat stress are expected to be lower for outdoor workers required to exert themselves, or for the elderly or children. Assessing laboratory limits for more at-risk people is the subject of ongoing work for Vecellio and his colleagues.

    Humans may not be able to handle as much heat as scientists thought
    If true, millions more people could be at risk of dangerous temperatures sooner than expected

    Heat wave rankings could also help cities tailor their interventions to the severity of the event. Six cities are currently testing the system’s effectiveness: four in the United States and in Athens, Greece, and Seville, Spain. On July 24, with temperatures heading toward 42° C, Seville became the first city in the world to officially name a heat wave, sounding the alarm for Heat Wave Zoe.

    As 2022 continues to smash temperature records around the globe, such warnings may come not a moment too soon.

    • the warnings will be ignored

      humans are that way inclined

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Spain bans setting the AC below 27 degrees Celsius
        It joins other European countries’ attempts to reduce energy use in the face of rising temperatures and fuel costs
        The Verge
        By Jennifer Pattison Tuohy@jp2e Updated Aug 3, 2022, 6:02pm EDT

        Europe grapples with a scorching summer and skyrocketing energy prices, Spain has become the latest government to tell its citizens to turn down the AC.

        A decree published on Tuesday morning in the official state gazette and scheduled to go into effect next week mandates that air conditioning in public places be set at or above 27 degrees Celsius (about 80 degrees Fahrenheit) and that doors of those buildings remain closed to save energy.

        Those public places include offices, shops, bars, theaters, airports, and train stations. The decree is being extended as a recommendation to all Spanish households. The rules include maintaining heating at or below 19 degrees Celsius (about 66 degrees Fahrenheit) in the winter and will remain in place at least through November 2023.

        European countries are scrambling to untangle twin problems; scorching heat that’s driving up energy demand and political conflict that’s complicating energy supplies

        Greece and Italy announced measures last month to similarly restrict energy use when cooling public buildings, also requiring air conditioning to be set to 27 degrees Celsius or higher.

        France has ordered public premises to set thermostats higher in the summer and lower in the winter and will fine air-conditioned businesses €750 if they leave their doors open. The city of Hanover, Germany, has banned the use of mobile air conditioning units and fan heaters everywhere other than in hospitals and schools.

        Yes, Norm….

        But not everyone is on board with these new measures. The Madrid region president Isabel Díaz Ayuso tweeted, “Madrid isn’t going to switch off. This generates insecurity and scares away tourism and consumption.”

        In Europe, where some countries enjoy a climate that has traditionally been milder than much of the US, fewer than 10 percent of households have air conditioning, compared to over 90 percent of American households. But as heatwaves increase in frequency, the International Energy Agency predicts Europe will almost triple its air conditioning stock to 275 million units by 2050.

        • there can be as many regs as you like

          but as long as it’s more comforting to listen to the conspiraholics, that is how it will be.

          uk gets over 40 c for the first time since records were kept—but it’s a hoax dont’cha know?

          The Madrid president follows this line—and millions will agree with him. Easier that way.

          The climate has been changing for millions of years—quite correct of course.

          but so slowly that all creatures had time to adapt and adjust.

          but that wont deter the plotmongers.

          • says:

            Of course it’s a hoax. Its’s a scam. It’s a ruse. It’s flim-flam.

            If you can’t see that or figure it out, you are not nearly as smart as you pretend to be.

            One swallow doesn’t make a summer. Weather isn’t climate. And one hot dry year, or decade, doesn’t make a changed climate. The official rule is, anything under three decades doesn’t count.

            By the way, Norman, for precisely how long was your house and garden at over 40ºC? And how are you enjoying your “barbecue summer”?

            • one thing i dont pretend to be is smart. Smart is a title bestowed by others–you might figure that out one day.
              Though some on OFW proclaim their high intellect with online bullhorns. Accept that if you must.

              the uk reached 40c for the first time since record keeping began

              records around the world are being broken again and again

              the 10 hottest UK years on record since record keeping began in 1884 have been since 2002

              The same is happening everywhere in the world, right now. The records are freely available. Thousands of them, from hundreds of different sources.

              And no–it isn’t weather. It’s climate change, just as has been forecast for years

              but if you insist its a hoax (or something) that is your prerogative. I never intrude on someone else’s comfort zone.

            • I can assure you that the high temperatures are not happening everywhere, however. Atlanta seems to be having a fairly mild summer, with lots of rain.

            • everywhere was generalisation, i assumed that was obvious

              where i live it hit 38c, 100 m away it went over 40, for the first time ever in uk.
              throughout southern Europe temperature records have been repeatedly broken

              >>>>Countries across Europe broke temperature records in June – with an unprecedented 32.5C (90.5F) reported in the Arctic Circle.

              Norway’s Meteorological Institute has warned the high temperatures are a clear signal of climate change.

              In Banak, where this new record was broken, average temperatures for June typically stand at 13C (55F).<<<<<<

              The Arctic temperature rises are the most dangerous, because they affect the jetstream which in turn affects everywhere else.
              The reduction of snowpack has reduced Lake Mead to its lowest level ever. This endangers the lives of millions living in places like Vegas and Phoenix.

              Of course there are places where 'weather' seems benign.

              That doesn't affect the overall picture at all.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I’m getting the coal ready

              ‘Unusually cold outbreak’ is heading NZ’s way from this weekend: MetService


            • i will hold open the door of your rayburn, and lend you my shovel

            • Fast Eddy says:

              No need for a shovel – I throw plastic bags full of coal into the hatch.

              Cuz I don’t give f789s?

            • i was merely offering my rayburn expertise

              (my favourite dept down there was the test kitchen)

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Is it not strange that whenever the MSM reports on record cold weather somewhere… they never cite that as evidence the GW is not happening…

              Yet whenever there a heatwave somewhere…

              People really are just f789ing incredibly stooopid… no wonder it’s so easy to convince them to shoot an experiment into their bodies.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Don’t worry norm — you’ll never be accused of being intelligent.

              Except perhaps by SS SINdy?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Ya but the MSM told them otherwise. They trust the MSM

        • 27 degrees Celsius = 80.7 degrees Fahrenheit

          If the humidity is low, and a person is not dressed in a suit and tie, that is not a bad temperature.

  25. Minority of One says:

    Gail recently pointed this out already, but Harry does a good economics review every second day.

    4th August 2022 Today’s Round-Up of Economic News

    • One article that caught my eye is this one:
      “‘Debt bomb’ risks: More than 40 nations are at risk of default — and that’s a problem for us all.

      It doesn’t really give good suggestions regarding how to fix the problem, but it does talk quite a bit about China’s contribution to the problem:

      China has been lending to poor nations for decades — to the tune of $843 billion in international development finance from 2000 to 2017. . .

      China, Power said, had been “an increasingly eager creditor of Sri Lankan governments since the mid-2000s.” She added: “Now that economic conditions have soured, Beijing has promised lines of credit and emergency loans … but calls to provide more significant relief have gone unanswered, and the biggest question of all is whether Beijing will restructure debt to the same extent as other bilateral creditors.”

      And it’s not just Sri Lanka. According to a 2021 report from the College of William and Mary, 44 countries owed debt to China equivalent to 10 percent or more of GDP, with some owing more than a quarter of GDP. China is the largest lender to Zambia, which defaulted on its sovereign debt in 2020 and is currently undergoing debt relief negotiations.

      Thus, China’s debt problem seems to be tied to the debt problem of many poor countries. Previous discussions have talked about “all lenders” allowing some changes in terms that would help these countries. But one of the issues is that China is a major lender, and it doesn’t seem to be in a position to make such a change.

    • Minority of One says:

      This is an interesting article posted on Tuesday.

      India’s GAIL rationing gas as former Gazprom unit cuts supplies.

      “India’s largest gas distributor GAIL (India) Ltd (GAIL.NS) has started gas rationing, cutting supplies to fertiliser and industrial clients after imports were hit under its deal with a former unit of Russian energy giant Gazprom, two sources familiar with the matter said.

      … Gazprom Marketing and Trading Singapore (GMTS), now a subsidiary of Gazprom Germania, has failed to deliver some liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes to GAIL and has said it may not be able to meet supplies under their long-term deal.

      …Last month, GAIL bought a spot LNG cargo at $38 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for August loading, well above the level at which it was getting gas under its deal with Gazprom, at about $12-$14 per mmBtu.

      …GAIL agreed a 20-year deal with Russia’s Gazprom in 2012 for annual purchases of an average 2.5 million tonnes of LNG. Supplies under the contract began in 2018.”

      The last paragraph suggests that Gazprom placed its former subsidiary Gazprom Germania under some sort of sanctions (if I understand correctly):

      “However, following Western sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, Gazprom gave up ownership of Gazprom Germania in early April without explanation and placed parts of it under Russian sanctions.”

      Gazprom unable or unwilling to meets its LNG supply obligations to India? Seems strange. Maybe another buyer was willing to pay much more for the LNG? $38 v $12-$14 per mmBtu.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        How can we confirm this?

        Sri Lanka has been on their last drops of petrol for weeks now….

        Gazprom shut down the gas to Europe…

        Where’s the reality that we should be observing?

        And the protesters in Wellington were peaceful — except for Fast Eddy who unleashed his wrath on the Large Fat Bastard. Maybe some day I’ll upload the video of that as a symbolic gesture to the world.

        • There is other natural gas coming into Europe and there is natural gas in storage. This means there is a natural gas problem, but not necessarily immediately. This is a link to an EIA page on the subject.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Is it because Gazprom turned off the flow — or because there isn’t enough gas available?

            • Or because the natural gas is being sold elsewhere, or because there are technical issues with the very old Nord Stream 1 pipeline? Russia applied quite a while ago (a year ago?) to use Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which is new and doesn’t have all of the technical issues that Nord Stream 1 pipeline has. It is also very close by, maybe 20 feet away from Nord Stream 1, so it serves exactly the same markets as the earlier pipeline. Germany (or perhaps German companies) helped finance the new pipeline but then decided it was unacceptable to use because it doesn’t have multiple owners, to meet some European/German competitive requirement. The new pipeline sits there unused, essentially because of a German embargo on it.

              Perhaps Russia is just tired of being “jerked around” by Europe.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Which would indicate there’s not enough gas to go round…

              Who knows what the real situation is … the MSM is certainly never going to spill the beans…

            • Jan says:

              The Americans have been pressuring on the German government to stop the pipelines for years. The current chancellor seems to be more receptive on that than others. I don’t see that Europe or only Germany could be fully supplied by liquified gas.

              Germany has a lot of coal still that is not used for environmental reasons. In difficult times it should be used as a backup.

              Cheap gas from Russia helped the German economy a lot.

              The only way for Europe to get independent from Russian oil/gas is via Georgia/Aserbaidjan. They are negociating for entry into the EU. If you look to the map the Caspian Sea is not in any way a part of Europe.

              I guess the whole Ukrainian war is in fact about the European access to the resources in the Caspian sea. Russia considers that there sphere of influence.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Pressuring them? And where are the supposed to get affordable energy from if they refuse Russian gas?

              How can you confirm they have been pressuring them?

              Keep in mind — most people to this day have not the slightest clue why WW1 happened… they are taught – and still believe — it was because and obscure duke was shot…

              How can we know that anything we ‘read or see’ is not spin?

      • My understanding has been that Europe’s high prices have been bidding away some of the LNG that would normally would go to Asia.

        The article says:

        Last month, GAIL bought a spot LNG cargo at $38 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) for August loading, well above the level at which it was getting gas under its deal with Gazprom, at about $12-$14 per mmBtu.

        Gazprom is not willing to sell at the contract price, when today’s spot price in Europe is so much higher.

      • MM says:

        Gazprom Germania has the name but is no longer related to the Russian Company because Germany stole it:

  26. Yoshua says:

    Thx Gail!

    The WTI has now broken the 200 day moving average support line

  27. Adonis says:

    looks like the elders plan to substantially scale back economic activity is working from a thousand flights per hour down to 15 to 20 that is a big saving the elders are bringing in bau lite that will stretch out our resources for quite a few decades enough time to probably scale up nuclear this is all part and parcel of their great reset involving stabilization of population reduction of resource use and replacing the capitalist system with a communist system ; You will own nothing and be happy. Well we had a good run anyhow but unfortunateley it is now time to pay the piper BAU LITE forever baby.

    • CTG says:

      BAU lite bravo… ask Apple or Boeing to design and produce only a million iPhone and 20 airplanes a year…

      • Overhead expense quickly becomes way too high. We will learn to live with old aircraft and old cell phones. Don’t count on money in bank accounts being worth much.

        • Dennis L. says:

          If money inflates, won’t nominal cost of goods, e.g. oil increase in nominal dollars?

          Dennis L.

          • The problem is that the system starts to break down. With high overhead expenses, it becomes impossible to make more than a few airplanes or cell phones.

            Regardless of what happens to the supply of money, a would-be buyer’s chance of actually getting one drops to zero. The situation is like trying to buy an oversees vacation trip during the 2020 COVID shutdown. You have money, but you cannot really buy things you expect to.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      My sources in the UEP senior admin team tell me that they’ve had to come off the pedal because there has been a delay in the Devil Covid mutation … it’s a numbers game as we know so it’s difficult to predict …

      They say at this point there is nothing to be concerned about — they can Goldilocks BAU for many more months before it goes critical… The new target is Q4… if we go beyond that there is the possibility that they lose control and ROF strikes…

  28. CTG says:

    Guys… I just checked the arrival boards of large airline hubs… it seems to be getting less and less flights, especially inter-continental flights. hubs like Dubai, pre-COVID is teeming with people and hundreds if not thousands of flights. Dubai is only 15-25 flights per hour. Bangkok is like 5-10 international flights per hour.

    It is less than what I found out last week….. Seriously….

    • MM says:

      Lew Rockwell had an article on this yesterday:

      “perspnal testimony”

      Unfortunately we seem to be in a time where personal testimony / evidence is the only thing we are left with. As ever!
      Some things a video camera in every pocket could be good for….

    • A few months ago, my sister Lois made a trip to Uganda. One leg of the trip landed in Dubai. She remarked that the plane was pretty much empty. She was able to stretch out across three seats to sleep on the flight. The plane was also ultra fancy. The amount she paid for air fare was lower than what she expected.

      I am wondering if part of the cutback is related to the economics of air transport. I am sure that there are other things going on as well: fear of fighting in the Far East, high fuel cost, passengers unhappy with rising cost of air tickets, etc.

    • CTG says:

      Just to correct my English. The number of flights per hour this week was less than the previous time I checked (maybe 1-2 weeks ago).

      It should not be that obvious unless it is dropping rapidly. Singapore, Dubai and Bangkok Airports are huge and some things like the air traffic control tower must be turned on no matter how many flights there is. Some excess terminals can be shutdown to save cost.

      It is 100% certain that airports will run a huge loss at this rate of utilization. Imaging Bangkok and its tourism industry – 4 -10 international arrivals per hour and let us say that half the plane is filled. It is seriously pathetic…..

      China and HK are almost devoid of international flights or foreigners.

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      American Airlines Cutting More Than 1,800 PHL Flights This Fall
      The 9% cut in September flights at PHL is the carrier’s largest at any airport in the country.
      By Ryan Mulligan – Philadelphia Business Journal • Published August 4, 2022 • Updated on August 4, 2022 at 7:27 am
      NBC Universal, Inc.
      The heat is on in Philadelphia and beyond as it will be feeling like the triple digits Thursday. NBC10’s Randy Gyllenhaal has tips to stay safe, even if you’re beating the heat at the Jersey Shore. Plus, at least four more deadly shootings have put Philadelphia ahead of last year’s record homicide pace. New Jersey is keeping expanded outdoor dining…

      More than 1,800 American Airlines domestic flights have been cut from Philadelphia International Airport’s September and October schedules in recent weeks as labor shortages coincide with rising demand for travel, reports the Philadelphia Business Journal.

      The total number of scheduled American Airlines flights to and from PHL in September was 12,766 as of June 20 but was down to 11,645 on Tuesday, according to data from aviation analytics provider Cirium Inc. The 9% cut in September flights at PHL is the carrier’s largest at any airport in the country. American Airlines (NASDAQ: AAL) is the dominant carrier at Philadelphia International, which is the airline’s Northeast hub.

      The 1,121 September flights trimmed from the schedule — 553 departures and 568 arrivals — equate to some 118,600 fewer potential passengers traveling through PHL next month, reports

      Even with travelers looking to return to the skies, PHL is seeing a reduction in flights year over year as well. As of Tuesday, the airport has more than 3,100 fewer American Airlines flights scheduled, a decline of 21%, and close to 67,000 fewer seats than last September.

      Philly Airport Getting More Than $20M to Upgrade Bathrooms
      American’s recent reductions in scheduled flights extend beyond next month. The airline has also dropped 711 flights from PHL’s October schedule in the past week. That includes 359 arrivals and 352 departures, totaling 45,185 seats. The 12,352 flights currently scheduled for October represents a year-over-year decrease of 20%, or close to 3,200 flights.

      • I see, in the middle of what you posted,”Philly Airport Getting More Than $20M to Upgrade Bathrooms”

        This is the way the system works. Upgrading bathrooms probably uses tax dollars to put people to work. Or perhaps some reserve funds.

  29. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Bowman Proposes Bill to Recommend Price Controls

    New legislation would study corporate profits and give President Biden the authority to impose targeted price controls in sectors like housing and health care.

    A bill set to be introduced in the House tomorrow would create a task force on emergency price stabilization, intended to recommend strategic price controls.

    The proposal, led by Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY), would charge a subgroup of the existing Supply Chain Disruptions Task Force with advising the White House on how to respond to high costs and volatility, and would empower President Biden to recommend setting ceilings and floors on prices.

    The sub-task force would be granted subpoena power to examine corporate earnings and expenses, focusing on five sectors: housing, health care, food, energy, and transportation. In an interview with the Prospect, Bowman argued that oversight and regulation of the private sector, including preventing runaway prices in strategically important sectors, is part of a healthy democracy.

    “This is not about controlling prices across the entire economy. It’s really looking at where price-gouging is happening, where supply chain shortages are happening,” Bowman said. “Giving the American people a look at corporate books.”

    More from Lee Harris

    Bowman added that he already supports measures to contain costs, including national rent control and the Heating and Cooling Relief Act, a measure to cap utility bills. While the legislation on emergency price stabilization is unlikely to pass, housing groups said it could be a useful tool to push for rent relief.

    “We need people in the president’s administration talking about the rent,” Tara Raghuveer, the director of Kansas City Tenants, told the Prospect of her group’s support for the bill. “I’m not holding my breath that Congress is going to act quickly on this, or much else, right now. We’re going to use this as part of our organizing strategy to push for additional vision and creativity among members of the Biden administration, to explore every avenue they have to institute rent regulation.”

    • I ran across this article from earlier this year:

      Price Controls Were a Disaster in the 1970s. They Would Be a Disaster Today, Too.
      The idea would benefit central planners and grow the ranks of bureaucrats while making the poor even poorer.

      Adding price controls would further add complexity to the system. The system cannot withstand its current level of complexity.

      One thing that was pushed prices along in the 1970s was the fact that wages of workers were rising, at the time that price controls were implemented. This added more “demand” to the system. The 1970s was a period when a lot of women were entering the work force and there were suddenly quite a few two-car families. This added to demand, as well.

  30. Artleads says:

    OFF TOPIC (with apologies)
    So called “Apprenticeship” following Britain’s end of slavery proclamation in August of 1834:

    Written by a friend:

    “Apprenticeship” was a scam. Political considerations demanded that slaveowners get compensated, otherwise there would be a huge financial crisis, since most of the plantations owed money (huge sums in some cases) to suppliers, merchants, banks etc. and the loans were secured by mortgages and liens on assets, and slaves were a major part of the “asset” base of every plantation, and relatively liquid. If slavery was simply abolished, creditors would have had to call their loans, and the plantations would have had to try and renegotiate the loans, but with no liquid assets to use as security – a financial crisis of immense proportions would have ensued. On the other hand, the government didn’t have the cash to pay full compensation. The solution was to pay partial compensation, so the plantation owners got some ready cash to meet their obligations, and then 6 years of “free” labour to cushion the transition to “full free”.

    • Thanks! I am sure that I have read about this issue previously, in the comments at OurFiniteWorld and the links.

      If I remember correctly, investors in the UK often owned the bonds relating to the purchase of slaves. These bonds were secured by the expected future work life of the slaves. So there would have been a huge financial crisis in the UK as well, if the slave owners would have given the slaves their freedom.

      I expect that there was also a problem with falling productivity of the soil because nutrients that were removed by farming were (at best) only partially replaced.

      There was also an issue of an US exploding population not being able to pay adequate prices for goods indirectly produced by the slaves, if the system provided reasonable living and working conditions for the slaves. One underling issue in the population explosion was a growing awareness of the need to wash hands and to use pasteurization to prevent the spread of germs, thus allowing more babies to live to maturity. Also, population was still rising because of many immigrants from abroad. There are academic papers showing that the hight of army recruits was falling at the time of the US Civil War, presumably from inadequate nutrition.

  31. in says:


    To reply to your comment a few days ago:

    “Only if the IVF costs and other technological fertility treatment costs start skyrocketing and stop working altogether and said subsidies for it disappear, daycare and other subsidies of this kind is also disappear. Then social Darwinism will be more complete”.

  32. Tim Groves says:

    This is a powerful interview with the late Dr. Vladimir Zelenko on Life, the Pandemic, and Everything. It lasts an hour, which I hope you will think it is time well spent. And for those who are interested, there are a further six interviews in the series.

    I picked up the fact that Dr. Zelenko was born in Kiev back when it was in the USSR, and he regarded himself as Russian.

    The interviewer, Dr. Peter Breggin says in an introductory note:

    This interview deeply moved me. From science to God, from the personal to the metaphysical, Dr. Vladimir “Zev” Zelenko inspires us and gives us insights such as I have rarely experienced in my life. Hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions of lives, are being saved because this one doctor managed to communicate to the world how to successfully treat the early stages of COVID-19. Had he been better listened to in America—and there is still time—we would not be enduring such a devastating pandemic. Fought all the way by the vested interests in medicine, industry and politics, and struggling with physical illness of his own while caring for a family with 8 children, he has inspired those of us who are standing up for the proper treatment of COVID-19 and against overpowering worldwide predatory forces. A physician and scientist, he speaks eloquently about the centrality of God in his life and may help you to transform your own life.

    • Xabier says:


      Astra Zenica ‘saved millions of lives’, not Zelenko, as the head of the UK regulator – sorry ‘enabler’ – the MHRA, June Raine confirmed in a speech in Oxford a week or two ago.

      So many lives were saved that the Oxford vaccine boss got a knighthood, and she became a pantomime Dame.

      Trusted News sources told me this, and I for one believe them.

  33. Michael Le Merchant says:



    • Fast Eddy says:

      Burning tires smack of chaos…. I’ve got a dozen or so of them out back … if we get ROF my plan is to burn them outside the gate and put some heads on the stakes to warn the bad guys that I am a mean hombre mutherf789kker and they best go find some Koombayas instead.

  34. Michael Le Merchant says:


  35. Mirror on the wall says:

    How are those ‘sanctions’ on Russia working out?

    “The energy price will push the economy into a five-quarter recession – with gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking each quarter in 2023 with GDP falling as much as 2.1%.”

    > The Big Squeeze

    The UK will fall into it a year-long recession by 2023 – its longest since the 2008 financial crisis and as deep as the one in the 1990s – and inflation will peak at more than 13% as gas and fuel prices soar, the Bank of England has warned today.

    Britain’s big squeeze has got even worse after the Bank also raised interest rates by 0.5 per cent to 1.75 per cent – the highest single rise since 1997 – adding £1,000-a-year or more to the average non-fixed mortgage.

    Food, fuel, gas and numerous other items are rocketing in price – hitting record levels – and some economists have claimed the BofE have been too slow to act as Britain careers towards recession.

    Consumer Prices Index inflation will hit 13.3% in October, the highest for more than 42 years, if regulator Ofgem hikes the price cap on energy bills to around £3,450, the Bank’s forecasters said, adding that it may not subside for several years.

    The energy price will push the economy into a five-quarter recession – with gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking each quarter in 2023 with GDP falling as much as 2.1%. ‘Growth thereafter is very weak by historical standards,’ the Bank said on Thursday, predicting there would be zero or little growth until after 2025.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      Naughty, naughty, naughty Russia!!!!

      Oh come on, it does not take a PhD in common sense to have seen this one coming.

      Do not expect to EVER recover from this assault on Russia.

      > …. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey today blamed ‘the actions of Russia’ overwhelmingly for the economic crisis and the ‘energy shock’, which will push more households into poverty and also see more people lose their jobs.

      He said: ‘Wholesale gas futures prices for the end of this year… have nearly doubled since May,’. They are ‘almost seven times higher’ than forecasts had suggested a year ago, adding: ‘That’s overwhelmingly a consequence of Russia’s restriction of gas supplies to Europe and the risk of further cuts’.

      Consumer Prices Index inflation will hit 13.3% in October, the highest for more than 42 years, if regulator Ofgem hikes the price cap on energy bills to around £3,450, the Bank’s forecasters said this afternoon, predicting that it may not subside from levels last seen in the 1970 and 1980s for several years.

    • The Daily Mail tells the story at least most of the way toward what it really is.

      When I first read your excerpt, I didn’t understand whether the quote at the top (“The energy price will push the economy into a five-quarter recession – with gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking each quarter in 2023 with GDP falling as much as 2.1%.”) referred to Russia or the UK. Once I looked at the article, it became it clear that the article was entirely about UK’s GDP.

  36. Tim Groves says:

    Republican Congresswoman and aids killed by kamikaze attack?
    Or was the other motorist suffering from a sudden fainting spell?

    The dead Congresswoman was Jackie Walorski, one of the better politicians—sensible, reasonable, pro-freedom, not always waving a rainbow flag or airing a grievance.
    She’ll be sadly missed.

  37. Fast Eddy says:

    If you think that was bad … rewatch this … what was done in China is completely off the charts… and it’s TBTB…

    Collapse is lurking – total absolute collapse – no f789ing BS resets… no total control … nothing .. collapse…

    The US housing market was the first major play to keep BAU alive… when that ran into a wall they switched to the China market… both housing and autos… and that was hitting a wall in 2019…

    And then covid. It’s game over – UEP is 100% where we are headed

    • cassandraclub says:

      I missed most of the earlier comment, Ed. What does UEP stand for?

    • Cromagnon says:

      It’s both better and worse than you are guessing FE.

      We are now in the times of tribulation. Several billion will exit stage left ( literally the stage) over the next 18 years. As you have shown knowledge of; the horseman are now riding herd on the human collective hive.

      Please do note how “ suddenly” there are papers being released on the reality of recurrent micro nova. We will begin to get scientific releases of data showing the reality of glass spherules on the surface of Luna….. we will begin to get information releases on the “ viscous nature” of the earths crustal plates with the underlying mantle. The talk of “ Carrington Events and EMPs will become mainstream………,”Alien” contact will claim to be made…….

      As the civilized world reels in its death throes, collapsing inexorably into a preindustrial state…… In the late spring of 2040

      The earth itself will change dramatically, or at least we will bear witness to one hell of a show…… several billion more will perish

      Then again within a handful of years something even worse.

      So shoulder shrug at the masses for they are lost, laugh at the super rich for they may be re entering the great game without an avatar…

      Just make sure you try and grasp the essence of what is happening. Then you to can witness the age of heros before we have a drink and a debrief in the control area of souls.

      • CTG says:

        Exyremely Optimistic… 18 years… at this current rate of collapse, 18 weeks. I tried to think hard on what could go “right’ like EU decides to be friends again with Russia. But then the damage might be done (I.e. the goose is cooked). China’s debt and internal issues seems unsurmountable. How is it possible to untangle a Ponzi?

        • Cromagnon says:

          At the risk of sounding “ optimistic”…. it’s not my first rodeo.

          I pulled my family from the southern USA in 2008 when oil peaked globally and the housing market imploded.
          I road the crazy money pouring into Alberta Tar Sands after that. I followed the pundits like Gail and JMG for decades. I went through a personal trial by fire that I am now sure was a reflection of my beliefs being made manifest by the Old Gods of the simacrulum ( the AI running this shitshow)….. it opened my consciousness to the other side in a small and undramatic way.

          I am not “religious”, I follow the evidence. Sodom and Gomorrah were real,…..the great flood was real…… the nephilum are real….. hell, even UFOs are real…… one just needs to new viewpoint to grasp it.

          18 years is a snap of the fingers,….. then if you still live,….. you get to feel winds so powerful they make a CAT 5 seem like a breeze ( I was in Katrina), you can witness the sun become a monster and feel the earth slipping its internal bonds.

          Insert a Bill Murray quote here and raise a glass to the farce of it all…… may we understand in the end what it was all for,…. if we are lucky, we might become gods ourselves.

          • NomadicBeer says:

            How dare you learn and change to deal with the future!

            You should listen to the geniuses here that preach giving up and not doing anything to survive or upset your masters, under the guise of “end of the world next Tuesday”.

            Every time an empire collapses, most of the upper classes are too “civilized” to work with their hands. Instead they prefer to wring their manicured hands and go down with the ship.

            We are all descendants of barbarians, poor peasants and slaves. I wonder how Kulm, FE and all the other “lords of creation” feel about that?

            • Cromagnon says:

              Regards! Some of my closest friends have been descendants of the trek boers.

              The great trek was perhaps the closest modern people’s have ever come to what the Anunna faced at the very beginning of recorded history. The sight of an imperial Xhosa impi coming at them across the veldt must have been awe inspiring and terrifying.

              I very nearly stayed in the great southern bush veldt. The feeling you get when a trio of big tuskers break cover near you through the Mopane and thorn is not to be duplicated. Simacrulum or not!

            • Xabier says:

              I would give quite a lot to be one of my barbarian ancestors right now, preferably in the Pyrenees, armed with spear, axe and large knife, able to build anything I needed, manage a flock, to plough, sow and harvest wearing clothes the village women had made: what’s more, they survived, culture intact, even 500 years of
              the Roman Empire and the huge Arab slave-raiding expeditions……

              Rude, hairy, savage ancestors, I salute you!

          • I am with you. The pace of the downslide in population could be slow enough that it indeed lasts until 2040, or even 2050. The economic system is connected in ways none of us can understand. There is a Guiding Hand behind everything that happens. Sanctions might act to produce a slow collapse, if they can slowly reduce production.

            • Cromagnon says:

              Let me take the opportunity to thank you for years of top quality analysis.
              I followed you on the oildrum back in those days.
              I was a frequent commentator on lifeaftertheoilcrash way back when.
              I note the Matt Savinar became an astrologer. I did not grasp it then, but I sure do now.

              I always referenced you when some smartass said I had no hard data to back my claims of a coming dark age. You have been the most objective and steadfast analyst that I have ever followed.

              Thank you Gail.

      • Replenish says:

        Diehold Foundation, Douglas B. Vogt

        The Adam and Eve Story by Chan Thomas

        Worlds in Collision by Immanuel Velikovsky.

        • Cromagnon says:

          Indeed. I see your offering and raise you:

          Overshoot: William R Catton
          Dark Age America: John Michael Greer
          Holistic Management: Alan Savory
          The Book of Enoch : Many versions
          Nostradamus and the Planets of Apocalypse: Jason Breshears

          and many many many more lol

          • Replenish says:

            Lol. Thanks for the reading suggestions!

            Most of my spiritual experience is the kind William James refers to as the “educational variety” but this one made an impression.

            Conversation: Demiurge to Rapacious Primate.

            Setting: Intersection of Routes 22 & 39. The skies were red and filled with smoke. I was wandering the ruins of a burned out city caring for the wounded. The number indicated was 3:56. A voice from the sky said “Fear not, your provisions will be provided.”

            Timeframe: 2022-2039

            Lamentations 3:55-57

            I called on your name, Lord, from the depths of the pit.

            You heard my plea: “Do not close your ears to my cry for relief.”

            You came near when I called you and you said, “Do not fear.

            • Kowalainen says:

              Bah, stop reading altogether, or just assume every semantic statement to be complete and utter fiction. Yes, anything that makes just a tiny weeny unverifiable assertion of reality.

              Simasimirum/simulation/AI is fun and all that to speculate upon until someone wonder how this entity is system engineered? Yes a tick over list wouldn’t hurt. Specs plz…

              Crickets… 🦗 🦗 🦗

              And if the specs doesn’t make much sense for a rather limited conscious embodiment such as a hooman, go with Occam’s razor and call a spade a spade, the earth, earth, the sun, sun, etc.

              *Turns the cranks and feels the burn*
              “Yep it hurtz every. single. time., but nobody knows how and why”

              And Gaia nods in agreement: “Don’t you worry your little head about the unfathomable, now shoo”

              Switching to something simpler… How would this “avatar” thingy stick? I’m just wondering what the point of that is? IRL “Truman Show” for bored “gods”/elites. Man; “they” surely must be even MOAR boring than the avatars themselves.

              I surely must be at the bottom barrel of avatars. Obnoxious AF, munches oat and turns cranks. No drama; just pure spite.

              If there are “avatars”, exactly how is this techno miracle supposed to I/O between the hooman and “aliens”? Asocial media perhaps? Ah, the cringe if that is so. 🤣👍👍

              Yeah; many questions, few answers. But by all means; attempt to enlighten me.

            • Cromagnon says:

              I feel ya!

              The world really IS NOT what we think it is. It’s sophisticated machinations are almost beyond human comprehension,…..almost.

              That there are no atheists in foxholes is true.

              Breshears understands this especially. His experience is exactly what I would expect in a prophet of the modern era. I think JMG totally gets it as well. The druids damn well understood the hidden world.

              “The Road” in popular modern “ science fiction “ is the simacrulum speaking through Cormac McCarthy. “Blood Meridian” is also……

              I know I am on the track of truth, as certain communications from the powerful have mocked me stating openly “ do you honestly think your the only one to figure this out”……

              No, indeed I am not the only one lol.

              I salute your observations.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What you have posted contains zero logic.

        Sorry about that but this is OFW… we are blunt

        • Kowalainen says:

          Yes, it is intractable to shift the laser focus away from depletion and debt predicaments.

          The Covid narrative + scandalous vax “rollout” to billions of people stink heavy handed CEP/UEP “tactics”…

          No amount of high flying hypotheses with aliens, ancients, simulation theories, or outright imaginary conjecture will change that I reckon?

          I suppose the narrative peddlers gotta up their game with some “UFO’s” landing on the front lawn of the White House.

          Heck, even then I wouldn’t believe it.

          The only thing that would change my mind is having a hottie alien broad walking in and presenting herself to me and made available for an extended period of time. Say a couple of years to verify it isn’t some hallucination or techno wizardry brain manipulations.

          In the mean time:
          🪵 🪓😑💦


          K.I.S.S. Principle 101.
          It. Just. Works. Always. 👍

          • Fast Eddy says:

            ‘Anything but UEP’ (aliens… depop… BBB… chipping… anything ANYTHING except UEP… cuz UEP = extinction … therefore no hope… and humans do not respond well to despair)

            Even when Global Holodomor is in play — and ‘the vans will bring the food – tomorrow’ I guarantee you … the humans will be peering out their windows … watching for the food vans… believing right till they take their last breathes … that the trucks will come.

            They are conditioned to believe in Hollywood endings.

  38. Gail, I posed the followinh question to an energy analyst recently on Substack:

    Is the limited availability of excess capacity of OPEC+ due to peak-oil being a real thing after all (in some parts of the world, now really showing itself in real-time for the first ime) – or is it a matter of ‘peak-oil’ due to new and changed policies and regulations limiting exploration and production?

    The reply I got was this:

    “Great question: The answer varies from country to country. Globally, there is no shortage of oil. Period. There is plenty in the ground, and Peak Oil theory remains a bad joke. There are some OPEC member countries who probably have peaked, though I’d be at great pains to try to identify one. Then there are countries like Libya and Algeria, which experience constant production and export disruptions due to social unrest and civil war. There are countries like Venezuela, whose socialist/fascist government has deliberately destroyed a once-thriving oil industry. There are countries like Norway, whose climate alarmist government has voluntarily chosen to let its industry wither on the vine. There are countries like Saudi Arabia, which has strategically limited its own production and investment in development of new reserves in order to avoid over-supplying the market. Then there is the United States, where first, the ESG investors and activist climate alarmist banks have literally conspired to deny capital to industry projects, and where now the Biden administration works overtime to invoke policies designed to depress the industry. Bottom line: We are in the midst of an energy crisis that is entirely due to irrational energy policymaking. There is no real energy shortage – just artificial shortage caused by stupid decisions made by stupid governments.”

    Would you agree? Could it be that all the peak-oilers who have been researching the subject for years have had blind spots all along? We see more and more analyses that seem sound, like the one above. So, I would wonder which view is the most accurate?

    • I don’t really agree with this analyst. We live in a self-organizing system. Every country makes decisions based on its own particular situation. For example, if there is not a stable government, production is likely to be highly irregular. We see this in Libya.

      Oil exporters vary in the amount of taxes that they need to support their countries. Russia and, in fact, all of the OPEC+ companies have been having huge problems with inadequate funding for all of their needs. They need to be (a) keep making huge investments, if there is to be a chance of keeping up oil production to the current level, or even increasing it and also to be (b) taking significant tax revenue off the top, to support the government of the country, so it won’t end up like Libya.

      From the perspective of someone who doesn’t understand these dynamics, there certainly looks like there is plenty of oil left, especially looking at published reserves. The catch is that the published reserves really don’t tell us much of anything at all. Outside of the US and Europe, they are not really audited numbers. Even if they are audited, they depend on prices being high enough to enable extraction. This is especially the case for oil exporters. Pumping oil that seems to be available also seems to depend on world trade holding up sufficiently that getting required supplies (such as fracking sand, drilling pipes, and new computers) and trained workers does not become a problem.

      This analyst is simply quoting the common beliefs of people who don’t understand the complexity of the whole system. Extraction depends on a whole lot more than how much oil seems to be available underground.

      • Thanks for your extensive reply, Gail. He followed up with more clarification and then went ahead and published our discussion along with further comments on a new blog. I posed the initial question to him in the first place to try and see where he was coming from in terms of his reference points, so his further responses provide detail.

        Here is his second comment:
        ” What Peak Oil theorists consistently have ignored throughout the 130 year history of the theory is the consistent reality that the more the industry invests in finding new reserves of oil, the more the global balance of oil reserves have risen. That has even held true over the last 8 years, as the ESG movement encouraged by western government policy has successfully cut into the overall capital investment by the industry. Peak Oil theory did a 180-degree change about a dozen years ago in recognition of this reality, in fact, though the theorists never admitted it. They shifted from always predicting Peak Oil supply was somehow just around the corner to predicting that Peak Oil demand was right on the horizon. But demand continues to rise rapidly, although with the interruption by the COVID-19 pandemic. Global supply is still rising today; the problem, though, is that it has lately not risen rapidly enough to meet more rapidly-rising global demand. Neither side of the Peak Oil have-it-all-ways equation is right. It’s all wrong, and will continue to be all wrong for many years and decades to come.”

        The thread is here in the comments section:

      • Here is the new post/article that David Blackmon wrote as an expanded commentary:

        • CTG says:

          Blackmore is no different from “safe and effective”. That is why I don’t bother interacting with people who regurgitate what the MSM says. Take out a paper and open. List down how much oil produced and how much investment bring made. Investment goes up, oil find goes down. What a bad joke this analyst this person is. Safe and effective. Repeat 1000 times and it will come true..

          You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.

          You can ignore what definition of a woman is but you cannot ignore what nature defines a woman to be. Nature dies not care a single bit if humans go extinct because the “new wonan” cannot procreate

  39. Fast Eddy says:

    Revisiting … this is when anyone who was not already bucket listing… should have immediately started.. but nobody did…

    • “The Big Short,” a film made in 2016 trying to explain some of the things that went wrong financially in 2008.

    • Herbie Ficklestein says:

      Thanks, Edwin, one of the stellar scenes in this epic movie.. Hard to believe it’s been 2015 since it was made and we have learned nothing but have pushed the string even tighter.

      My favorite is the Casino science with Brad Pitt getting angry at his two partners for celebrating the potential collapse of BAU

      Maybe someone will do a movie for you on the Covid Scam? Hope you’re in it! 😂

      • Fast Eddy says:

        How can you say that we have not learned?

        We took the same concept that was used in the US pre GFC and applied it – on steroids – to China … and China was the engine of the world hauling us through a decade of more… without China’s housing boom … the CovCON would have been launched soon after GFC and we’d all be dead already.

        We need a Central Banker appreciation day before we say good bye to life

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    Century of Self… Freud says he fears humans … and despises them….

    That is why they must be controlled… that is why there is the Matrix… that is why the veneer must be maintained

    Otherwise this

    • Kowalainen says:

      “Century of Self”

      Nope, it’s the century of unfettered egotistical fantasies. There’re just selfless automatons responding to gaudy narrative peddlers, usual mouthpieces and “influencers” flipping hopium, copium and delusions packaged to suit rapacious primate Tryhard and MOARonic traits. Yes, that’s vile primates going about their useless frippery with the neocortex amplifying the Monkey Business 101 guidelines.

      And when those doesn’t pan out as per “programming” for the princes and princesses of IC; you do the thinking. How about depression in the “best” case, riots in the worse and cannibalism in dystopia?

      In the mean time:


  41. Fast Eddy says:

    Pull this down if you want to see what happens when a mob goes wild and there are no cops to stop them… it will be a 100000000x worse if UEP fails

  42. CTG says:


    McDonald’s worker shot in New York over cold fries

    This is from MSM. So, let us assume it is true

    • Tim Groves says:

      This is from MSM. Even so, let us assume it is true. 🙂

      We don’t see this level of violence in Japanese fast food outlets.

      But the newspapers are covering two social phenomena at present. One is middle aged and elderly people dying in isolated conditions. There were two cases in Osaka recently where a middle aged daughter and an elderly parent died at home from what was probably a malnutrition. In one case, a father and daughter lay dead for two months before their body’s were discovered.

      The second phenomena is mothers (or grandmothers) in charge of infants letting the kids die, either by leaving them in cars while they go off on a date, or in one case, also in Osaka, which was probably deliberate, leaving an infant grandchild unattended for 11 hours while they went on an excursion to Universal Studios Japan.

      I’ve got to wonder what’s going wrong with people that they act like this. Have the jabs taken away what little bit of humanity they had?

      • CTG says:

        When one uses logical reasoning to describe illogical things, it just bring angst, despair and frustration. Occasionally Razor rules. Why follow the logical path? Perhaps one should think out of the box to explain all these words stuff and the super coincidences that happened (I.e. low Rhineriver affected the cooling of nuclear power plants in France which incidentally is suffering from nuclear power plant shutdown. Nope. Elders are just not that smart tonthink and plan all these. You are giving them too much credit.

      • that sort of thing is relatively rare, but it has happened everywhere throughout recorded history.

        i think the only places where it wouldnt happen is among the ”so called” primitive tribes

        • Primitive tribes had customs in which the elderly and sickly would be left behind, or would somehow voluntarily lose their lives.

          We are moving from a time of abundance to a time of shortage. People start behaving strangely.

          • the elderly and sickly being ‘left behind’ is a quite different situation to an otherwise healthy person being ignored/forgotten within the community itself, and being allowed to die through neglect

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Recall the subway shooting a couple of months ago – that was obviously false once one had a look at the video

      All these things – men with vagines… trannies with children bounding on their laps while parents applaud… shootings.. etc… create the perception of chaos… who brings order to chaos? The government …

      • eddy

        mostly i ignore your attention seeking drivel, as you are aware.

        but sometimes it’s impossible

        this is a video of a Sandy Hook mother

        which would move any normal thinking person to tears–including me.

        But it comes under your ‘fake’ definition–that the shooting never happened, all crisis actors
        As you are fond of saying to me ‘have you no shame’?

        but we must all applaud eddy the entertainer.
        This is your idea of entertainment?

        you spend your entire waking life calling online attention to yourself, because no one does in your RL

        • Tim Groves says:

          I’m not any normal thinking person, Norman. I don’t know what went on and how much was real and how much was fake.

          But when I looked at Sandy Hook, I saw fakery and I saw actors. When I watched the CNN segment you’ve linked to, I see fakery and I see actors. When I looked at the Covid Pandemic being response rolled out, I saw fakery and I saw actors. I even sense that the Alex Jones trial is in some way a fake event and Alex is acting—or playing along—in order to avoid a worse fate.

          I regard not being a normal thinking person as a blessing.

          Have you ever read or skimmed through Fetzer’s book on Sandy Hook, which has resulted in Fetzer being found guilty of defamation?

          Well, maybe you should, and maybe you won’t, but maybe somebody else would care to read it, as it is s fascinating read and has lots of nice pictures and is also available free as a PDF. So I’ll post a link to it and say no more about it.

          • Tim
            until now I thought better of you, that you had some kind of usable/flexible intellect

            The video i posted was a mother with the birth of her murdered child on record

            She’s in court facing Jones

            dyou really think that such an elementary record check could not/would not be carried out by lawyers involved?

            I.m saddened to think you immerse yourself in the eddymire of unversal fakery—i could laugh off the moonloonery etc–but not Sandy Hook, (and by association all the other mass shootings of course)

            • Tim Groves says:

              Don’t be sad on my account, Norman. I’m truly happy in my delusions. And I’m sure the lawyers and the judge and the plaintiffs and the defendants are all as pure as the driven snow. Nobody ever lies in court. Nobody ever conspires to pervert the course of justice, and the mass media are as fair and unbiased as the day is long.

              It’s a good book, Norman. Go on, have a quick browse.

              At least, have a look at this short CNN clip featuring Robbie Parker.

            • Fast Eddy says:


              Tell us about how you can’t wait for the 5th Extra Strength Shot norm… this is a fascinating topic… and to have a Pro Vaxxer explain it would be a treat

          • and i took the trouble to read into the link you posted

            Reading it cold, I would have put it down as pure satire

            (got as far back as the Kennedy shooting)
            No planes hit the Pentagon–and on and on.

            I realised the crackpots writing it actually meant it.

            You seriously disappoint me Tim–that you could be sucked into such claptrap.

            Nevertheless, it interests me to know just how far seemingly intelligent people can be swayed from reality

            • Tim Groves says:

              It’s a 200-page book, Norman. And you’ve absorbed the contents inside half an hour? All I can say is you must have a frighteningly high IQ.

            • i said

              i got as far as ‘no plane hit the pentagon’


              JFK assassination faked—–perleeeeze–not again!!!

              having read that far and skimmed a few more, picking out this and that major event–did you seriously expect me to waste hours from the few i have left reading more?

              Maybe I missed the bit where Prince Charles had Diana thrown off the top of the WTC just before it was flown into by those holograms of planes.

              It was a 200 pages diatribe of (literally) every world event over the past half century, all listed as fakes.
              It was the fast eddy playbook–i wondered where he got it all from
              Just what is wrong with you Tim? Again, I thought you had a mind capable of independent thinking.

              Does it never occur to you that the fakes are always about newsworthy events and famous people? Rather like the idiots who ‘used to be Napoleon’ in a previous life. Nobody ever got reincarnated who used to be my great grandad.

              If somebody gets killed up the road in a motorway pile up—it isn’t listed as fake.
              They are not famous enough. They are just dead–end of. But famous . hmmmm–there has to be plot behind it somewhere. They weren’t killed, they were crisis actors.
              A local house got blown up by a gas leak a couple month ago. Nobody famous lived there–so it wasn’t ‘faked’.

              Think! and do yourself a favour.

              Saying school shootings are faked is an act of criminal irresposibility

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You forgot to watch American Moon

          • Tim Groves says:

            If you don’t have the stomach or the time to delve into the book above, just read this short list of reasons why any critically thinking person should be suspicious of the official Sandy Hook story.

            Now, this will be my last word on the subject.


          • Fast Eddy says:

            Keep in mind we have pummelled norm with hard data and facts that demonstrate the injections are resulting in more infections and more hospitalizations and deaths… yet he cannot wait to get the next booster.

            Don’t expect much from norm….

        • Tim Groves says:

          But in a sense, it is only natural that I feel that way. The mass media is a theatrical production specifically designed to appeal to and convince and hypnotize and brainwash normal people. It isn’t true and so by its very nature it cannot align precisely with reality. There are always gaps.

          It’s like that weird coloration on Joe Biden’s neck as if he had had an accident with a bottle of suntan lotion. To normal people, Joe looks normal. Nothing more to see here. Move along. Move along.

          • Kowalainen says:

            A “crisp” Joe Biden == 10000% ‘Deep Fake’.
            (AI 3D generated “skin” pasted over an actor and generated voice)

            Google or YouTube that term.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            For norm the theatrical production is his reality.

            This is why American Moon is the most important documentary ever —- I do not know of anyone who has agreed to watch it who still believes we’ve been to the moon.

            The significance is that if ‘they’ could fake that – they can fake anything…. and this documentary can be a life changing moment…

            norm won’t watch – so norm doesn’t challenge anything … it will at some point cost him his health/life… because he might otherwise challenge the tag line (that was dreamed up by the same folks who gave us Hope and Change and MAGA)… of Safe and Effective.

            norm is another drone among billions… he will remain mired in the primordial ooze with Super Snatch SINdy till the very end…. there is no changing the minds of people like this on any issue (as we can see)

  43. MM says:

    I just noticed that the topic of Russian gas delivery to Germany has vanished from the news as has the delivery itself. (latest unconfirmed data because I do not sit on the valve: flow rate 20%)

    • CTG says:

      MM….. Russian gas delivery to Germany dropped from news….

      oh no… it is suffering from the same fate as “Sri Lanka” where it is always “1-day of fuel left”. We just don’t know what is reality anymore.

      If the tree in the forest falls and no one was there to hear it fall. Did it fall?

      If there is no news from Sri Lanka or Germany on the fuel situation, does it mean that Sri Lanka or Germany does not exist?

      Any Germans here on OFW who can confirm this (other than reading it from MSM?)

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Was it ever real? Did they ever shut it off?

      How can you confirm any of this? You can’t

      See all the headlines here How do you know if any of them are true?

      Keep in mind we are told the vaccines are safe and effective across all MSM.

      But I know so many people who were damaged by the vaccines – and I know that shops in QT had to close because so many people were sick with covid. And I see how the MSM and social media block anyone who challenges this narrative … so I know that the vaccines are not safe or effective.

      But BBG says they are… an obvious lie. BBG says a lot of other things as well…how do you not know that every headline on that page is not a lie? You can’t know.

      How can you know that everything you think you know that is happening in the world is not a lie?

      You can’t – it’s impossible. You have to rely on outside sources – most people will rely on the MSM… we all have to because only they have the $$$ to report globally.

      Perhaps the Ukraine war — is just enough war — to create the perception of war…. because ‘they’ need a war to explain this temporary bout of inflation …

      What exactly are they fighting for in Ukraine? Yes of course – it’s about democracy … Zelensky the bright shining light – surrounded by the grand sons of Nazis.. ok … sure – let’s trot out every celeb in hollywood for a photo shoot with Z .. cuz. Cuzz????

      You know the saying about advertising … I know half of my spend is wasted— I just can’t figure out which half….

      This applies… except I know 90% of it is fake news… I can’t figure out the 10% that’s true (and it may only be the weather and sports scores – the rest might all be fake).

      We live in a matrix — and the thing is .. it’s so comprehensive and well done … that for most people it is their reality – they don’t question any of it.

      • The Bloomberg headline that Fast Eddy is linking to is “Taiwan Faces Urgent Fighter Pilot Shortage as Xi Tests Defenses
        The shortfall shows the island’s challenges in trying to deter an attack by Beijing.”

        • MM says:

          I see s sea blockade emerging without a hot war.
          The industry in Taiwan is just too precious.
          Products will go out for friendly nations, I read that before….

          I do not really see China in a much better situation than Russia on their version of the snake island dilemma.
          Yes snake island does not (?) have the jewels as Taiwan but it seems to be too costly for Russia to keep it.
          Same for China, I think Taiwan is the most China can hope for and even with that it will also hurt itself a lot..

          Squeezing of the lemons.

      • The only thing that’s real is the Mayan Calendar 😉 [for REAL!]

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    Simple question asked in this article : I wonder why our MSM journalists don’t ask the same question 🤔

    Daily Telegraph NZ (

    Why are people falling ill and dying in record numbers? – Daily Telegraph NZ
    Excess all-cause mortality in New Zealand is running at record levels – Guy Hatchard explains why.

    • Quote from the article:

      Not everyone is keeping silent. Professor Shmuel C. Shapira, long time Head of the Israeli Institute of Biological Research, has been speaking out about the failure of the Israeli mRNA Pfizer vaccination programme, describing it as a house of cards about to come tumbling down that will bury us all. He tweeted:

      “I am not against vaccines, I am against stupidity, false science and management that is not professional and ignores matters-of-fact.”

      The article also notes that people in the UK (not NZ) are voting with their feet by not coming in for their boosters and not bringing their children in to be immunized. The UK got to see how poorly the vaccines worked, earlier than NZ.

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    My HF partner says that his ECIs (economic cycle indicators) which indicate recession already are starting to accelerate to the downside as of July. This is real economy as opposed to financial markets. They will follow soon enough.


    Pray for UEP … UEP UEP UEP UEP!!!

  46. Fast Eddy says:

    Critical thinkers might wonder why Biden and Fauci, both fully vaccinated, took Paxlovid. Both men claim that if you are fully vaccinated, it means you are “at low risk for severe disease.” So why would they take any new, unproven drug especially one that is ONLY approved for people who ARE at risk for severe disease.

    Something isn’t adding up here.

    • CTG says:

      Luckily FE quoted Kirsch… If not I would have beaten him up.

      Critical thinkers only exist on internet and on websites like OFW, Susbstack (not all authors) and probably a few other websites.

      It does not exist in the wild or the real world.

      In my world here, there is probably 3 thinkers that I know and they are not 100% critical thinkers.

      • Tim Groves says:

        Twenty of thirty years ago, I knew about a people I viewed as dozen critical thinkers that I could meet in person, but these days there is nobody. Some have died. Some I am out of contact with.Some have been traumatized by recent events. And some have turned mushy-brained in their old age.

        So I am left with the wisdom set down in good books and exchanges with critical thinkers online—characters such as Norman and Mirror, who are undoubtedly thinkers and at the same time very critical of me on occasion.

        And the wife, of course. She criticizes me on an everyday basis. “Keep your back straight! Don’t tuck your t-shirt inside your trousers—it makes you look like a retard! Don’t eat your elbows on the table! And don’t EVER do THAT when you are outside!….” Thanks to her constant training, you can take me anywhere without embarrassment.

        • at least my criticism of you (which i can’t recall incidentally) has always been courteous and polite.

        • Kowalainen says:

          “Thanks to her constant training, you can take me anywhere without embarrassment”

          Taking some edge off the male arrogance and flippancies.

          “Watch how little I care”

          Goes on scratching the rear end, poking the nose and releasing some wind in public.

          • Tim Groves says:

            You’ve been hacking my smartphone, haven’t you?

            • Kowalainen says:

              Didn’t you get the memo?

              “Mildly Rapacious Primate Antics 101”
              (Male subsistence farmer edition)

              The “Severly Rapaious…” memo for the hyper Tryhards.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Similarly … I do not know anyone outside of OFW who is anywhere near this level… if they were — they’d be here

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    The reason, Fauci explained, is that the longer the virus circulates, the more of a chance it gets to mutate into a new variant that could threaten even low-risk populations. In other words, if you get Covid and fully recover without much fuss, you might personally be fine — but you’re actively extending the virus’s lifespan and giving it a chance to adapt even further.

    Fauci said booster shots targeting Covid variants like BA.5, which will enhance immunity against those particular strains, will likely be available next month. Get one when you’re eligible, Fauci said — and in the meantime, don’t wait to catch up on the doses you’re currently missing.

    If you aren’t worried about your own personal risk, do it for your “communal responsibility,” Fauci said.

    “If you want to get your arms around … the outbreak, you want to get as many people in our community — and by community, I mean our nation and the world — vaccinated and boosted, so you don’t give this virus such ample opportunity to really circulate,” he said.

    He’s banking on stooopidity…

    • Xabier says:

      It’s rarely an error to bank on utter stupidity, FE – so Fauci’s a smart man after all!

      This is the logic of trench warfare: if we all go over the top once more in yet a further pointless assault, a different result must surely come about.

      OK, the first three failed; but victory awaits us after fourth….fifth….sixth….up to ten if we can believe the orders for shots placed by governments.

      Rather than future conquerors, the multi- vaccinated are more like the soldiers stuck in the Salerno bridgehead in WW2, or Gallipoli in WW1: landed there by idiot generals, and steadily being picked off by a whole range of weapons….

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        The classic Kirt Douglas film of 1957..paths of Glory..

        Paths of Glory is a 1957 American anti-war film[4] co-written and directed by Stanley Kubrick, based on the novel of the same name by Humphrey Cobb.[5] Set during World War I, the film stars Kirk Douglas as Colonel Dax, the commanding officer of French soldiers who refuse to continue a suicidal attack, after which Dax attempts to defend them against charges of cowardice in a court-martial.

        The film was co-produced through Douglas’s film production company, Bryna Productions, and a joint venture between Stanley Kubrick and James B. Harris, Harris-Kubrick Pictures.[1][2][6] In 1992, the film was deemed “culturally, historically or aesthetically significant” by the Library of Congress and selected for preservation in the United States National Film Registry.

        A must see

        • Xabier says:

          I’d also recommend Alan Whicker’s films (on YT) about what he saw as a camera journalist in Italy in WW2, with some very pointed comments regarding US general Mark Clark – in much the same vein as ‘Paths of Glory’.

  48. Fast Eddy says:

    If you aren’t up-to-date on your Covid vaccines or booster shots, Dr. Anthony Fauci has a stark warning for you: Get those doses now, or prepare for a harsh Covid fall and winter.

    “If they don’t get vaccinated or they don’t get boosted, they’re going to get into trouble,” Fauci, President Biden’s chief medical adviser, told Los Angeles radio station KNX News 97.1′s “KNX In Depth” on Tuesday.

    • Xabier says:

      Rather tired argument: the terrible ‘Winter of Death’ was meant to happen to the unvaccinated, according to Biden, in 2021/2; result? Nothing.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Exactly, all conveniently forgotten by the journalist community protecting our right to be informed..among the other misstatements made to alarm the public at large of the manufactured heath crisis.
        This is habitual in many political pronouncements.
        Very little accountability is held in check and gets put under the rug.
        Remember Obamie news conference about the financial meltdown and how those responsible would be prosecuted…Won’t forget his matter of fact …”Look, there is plenty of blame to go around” and brushed it off entirely.

    • We have heard this story before.

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