Back in 2005, the world economy was “humming along.” World growth in energy consumption per capita was rising at 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period. China had been added to the World Trade Organization in December 2001, ramping up its demand for all kinds of fossil fuels. There was also a bubble in the US housing market, brought on by low interest rates and loose underwriting standards.
The problem in 2005, as now, was inflation in energy costs that was feeding through to inflation in general. Inflation in food prices was especially a problem. The Federal Reserve chose to fix the problem by raising the Federal Funds interest rate from 1.00% to 5.25% between June 30, 2004 and June 30, 2006.
Now, the world is facing a very different problem. High energy prices are again feeding over to food prices and to inflation in general. But the underlying trend in energy consumption is very different. The growth rate in world energy consumption per capita was 2.3% per year in the 2001 to 2005 period, but energy consumption per capita for the period 2017 to 2021 seems to be slightly shrinking at minus 0.4% per year. The world seems to already be on the edge of recession.
The Federal Reserve seems to be using a similar interest rate approach now, in very different circumstances. In this post, I will try to explain why I don’t think that this approach will produce the desired outcome.
[1] The 2004 to 2006 interest rate hikes didn’t lead to lower oil prices until after July 2008.
It is easiest to see the impact (or lack thereof) of rising interest rates by looking at average monthly world oil prices.
The US Federal Reserve began raising target interest rates in June 2004 when the average Brent oil price was only $38.22 per barrel. These interest rates stopped rising at the end of June 2006, when oil prices averaged $68.56 per barrel. Oil prices on this basis eventually reached $132.72 per barrel in July 2008. (All of these amounts are in dollars of the day, rather than being adjusted for inflation.) Thus, the highest price was over three times the price in June 2004, when the US Federal Reserve made the decision to start raising target interest rates.
Based on Figure 2 (including my notes regarding the timing of the interest rate rise), I would conclude that raising interest rates didn’t work very well at bringing down the price of oil when it was tried in the 2004 to 2006 period. Of course, the economy was growing rapidly, then. The rapid growth of the economy likely led to the very high oil price shown in mid-2008.
I expect that the result of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates now, in a low-growth world economy, might be quite different. The world’s debt bubble might pop, leading to a worse situation than the financial crisis of 2008. Indirectly, both asset prices and commodity prices, including oil prices, would tend to fall very low.
Analysts looking at the situation from strictly an energy perspective tend to miss the interconnected nature of the economy. Factors which energy analysts overlook (particularly debt becoming impossible to repay, as interest rates rise) may lead to an outcome that is pretty much the opposite result of the standard belief. The typical belief of energy analysts is that low oil supply will lead to very high prices and more oil production. In the current situation, I expect that the result might be closer to the opposite: Oil prices will fall because of financial problems brought on by the higher interest rates, and these lower oil prices will lead to even lower oil production.
[2] The purpose of the US Federal reserve raising target interest rates was to flatten the growth rate of the world economy. Looking back at Figure 1, the growth in energy consumption per capita was much lower after the Great Recession. I doubt that now in 2022, we want even lower growth (really, more shrinkage) in energy consumption per capita for future years.*
Looking at Figure 1, growth in energy consumption per capita has been very slow since the Great Recession. A person wonders: What is the point of governments and their central banks pushing the world economy down, now in 2022, when the world economy is already barely able to maintain international supply lines and provide enough diesel for all of the world’s trucks and agricultural equipment?
If the world economy is pushed downward now, what would the result be? Would some countries find themselves unable to afford fossil fuel energy products in the future? This might lead to problems both in growing and transporting food, at least for these countries. Would the whole world suffer a major crisis of some sort, such as a financial crisis? The world economy is a self-organizing system. It is difficult to forecast precisely how the situation would work out.
[3] While the growth rate in energy consumption per capita was much lower after 2008, the price of crude oil quickly bounced back to over $120 per barrel in inflation-adjusted prices in the 2011-2013 time frame.
Figure 3 shows that oil prices immediately bounced back up after the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Quantitative Easing (QE), which the US Federal Reserve began in late 2008, helped energy prices to shoot back up again. QE helped keep the cost of borrowing by governments low, allowing governments to run larger deficits than might otherwise have been possible without interest rates rising. These higher deficits added to the demand for commodities of all types, including oil, thus raising prices.
The chart above shows average annual Brent oil prices through 2021. The above chart does not show 2022 prices. The current Brent oil price is about $91 per barrel. So, oil prices today are a little higher than they have been recently, but they are nowhere nearly as high as they were in the 2011 to 2013 period or in the late 1970s. The extreme reaction we are seeing is very strange. The problem seems to be much more than oil prices, by themselves.
[4] High prices in the 2006 to 2013 period allowed the rise of unconventional oil production. These high oil prices also helped keep conventional oil production from falling after 2005.
It is difficult to find detail on the precise amount of unconventional oil, but some countries are known for their unconventional oil production. For example, the US has become a leader in the extraction of tight oil from shale formations. Canada also produces a little tight oil, but it also produces quite a bit of very heavy oil from the oil sands. Venezuela produces a different type of very heavy oil. Brazil produces crude oil from under the salt layer of the ocean, sometimes called pre-salt crude oil. These unconventional types of extraction tend to be expensive.
Figure 4 shows world oil production for various combinations of countries. The top line is total world crude oil production. The bottom gray line approximates world total conventional oil production. Unconventional oil production has been rising since, say, 2010, so this approximation is better for years 2010 and subsequent years on the chart, than it is for earlier years.
From this chart, it appears that world conventional oil production leveled off after 2005. Some people (often referred to as “Peak Oilers”) were concerned that conventional oil production would reach a peak and begin to decline, starting shortly after 2005.
The thing that seems to have kept production from falling after 2005 is the steep rise in oil prices in the 2004 to 2008 period. Figure 3 shows that oil prices were quite low between 1986 and 2003. Once oil prices began to rise in 2004 and 2005, oil companies found that they had enough revenue that they could start adopting more intensive (and expensive) extraction techniques. This allowed more oil to be extracted from existing conventional oil fields. Of course, diminishing returns still set in, even with these more intensive techniques.
These diminishing returns are probably a major reason that conventional oil production started to fall in 2019. Indirectly, diminishing returns likely contributed to the decline in 2020, and the failure of the oil supply to bounce back up to its 2018 (or 2019) level in 2021.
[5] A better way of looking at world crude oil production is on a per capita basis because the world’s crude oil needs depend on world population.
Everyone in the world needs the benefit of crude oil, since it is used both in farming and in transporting goods of all kinds. Thus, the need for crude oil rises with population growth. I prefer analyzing crude oil production on a per capita basis.
Figure 5 shows that on a per capita basis, conventional crude oil production (gray bottom line) started declining after 2005. It was only with the addition of unconventional oil that crude oil production per capita could remain fairly level between 2005 and 2018 or 2019.
[6] Unconventional oil, if analyzed by itself, seems to be quite price sensitive. If politicians everywhere want to hold oil prices down, the world cannot count on extracting very much of the huge amount of unconventional oil resources that seem to be available.
On Figure 6, crude oil production dips in 2016 – 2017 and also in 2020 – 2021. Both the 2016 and the 2020 dips are related to low prices. The continued low prices in 2017 and 2021 may reflect start-up problems after a low price, or they may reflect skepticism that prices can stay high enough to make continued extraction profitable. Canada seems to show similar dips in its oil production.
Venezuela shows a fairly different pattern. Information from the US Energy Information Administration mentions that the country started having major problems once the world oil price started falling in 2014. I am aware that the US has had sanctions against Venezuela in recent years, but it seems to me that these sanctions are closely related to Venezuela’s oil price problems. If Venezuela’s very heavy oil could really be extracted profitably, and the producers of this oil could be taxed to provide services for the people of Venezuela, the country would not have the many problems that it has today. The country likely needs a price between $200 and $300 per barrel to allow for sufficient funds for extraction plus adequate tax revenue.
Brazil’s oil production seems to be relatively more stable, but its growth has been slow. It has taken many years to get its production up to 2.9 million barrels per day. There is also some pre-salt oil production just now getting started in Angola and other countries of West Africa. This type of oil requires a high level of technical expertise and imported resources from around the world. If world trade falters, this type of oil production is likely to falter, as well.
A large share of the world’s oil reserves are unconventional oil reserves, of one type or another. The fact that rising oil prices are a real problem for citizens means that these unconventional reserves are unlikely to be tapped. Instead, we may be dealing with seriously short supplies of products we need for operating our economies, including diesel oil and jet fuel.
[7] Figure 1 at the beginning of this post indicated falling energy consumption per capita. This problem extends to more than oil. On a per capita basis, both coal and nuclear energy consumption are falling.
Practically no one pays any attention to coal consumption, but this is the fuel that allowed the Industrial Revolution to start. It is reasonable to expect that since the world economy started using coal first, it might be the first to deplete. Figure 7 shows that world coal consumption per capita hit a peak in 2011 and has declined since then.
Many of us have heard about Aesop’s Fable, The Fox and the Grapes. According to Wikipedia, “The story concerns a fox that tries to eat grapes from a vine but cannot reach them. Rather than admit defeat, he states they are undesirable. The expression ‘sour grapes’ originated from this fable.”
In the case of coal, we are told that coal is undesirable because it is very polluting and raises CO2 levels. While these things are true, coal has historically been very inexpensive, and this is important for people buying coal. Coal is also easy to transport. It could be used for fuel instead of cutting down trees, thus helping local ecosystems. The negative things that we are being told about coal are true, but it is hard to find an adequate inexpensive substitute.
Figure 8 shows that world nuclear energy per capita is also falling. To some extent, its fall has stabilized since 2012 because China and a few other “developing nations” have been adding nuclear capacity, while developed nations in Europe have tended to remove their existing nuclear power plants.
Nuclear energy is confusing because experts seem to disagree on how dangerous nuclear power plants are, over the long term. One concern relates to proper disposal of spent fuel after its use.
[8] The world seems to be at a difficult time now because we don’t have any good options for fixing our falling energy consumption per capita problem, without greatly reducing world population. The two choices that seem to be available both seem to be far higher-priced than is feasible.
There are two choices that seem to be available:
[A] Encourage large amounts of fossil fuel production by encouraging very high fossil fuel prices. With such high prices, say $300 per barrel for oil, unconventional crude oil in many parts of the world would be available. Unconventional coal, such as that under the North Sea, would also be available. With sufficiently high prices, natural gas production could be raised. This natural gas could be shipped as liquefied natural gas (LNG) around the world at great cost. Additionally, many processing plants could be built, both for supercooling the natural gas to allow it to be shipped around the world and for re-gasification, when it arrives at its destination.
With this approach, food costs would be very high. Much of the world’s population would need to work in the food industry and in fossil fuel production and shipping. With these priorities, citizens would not have time or money for most things we buy today. They likely could not afford a vehicle or a nice home. Governments would need to shrivel in size, with the usual outcome being government by a local dictator. Governments wouldn’t have sufficient funds for roads or schools. CO2 emissions would be very high, but this likely would not be our most serious problem.
[B] Try to electrify everything, including agriculture. Greatly ramp up wind and solar. Wind and solar are very intermittent, and their intermittency does not match up well with human needs. In particular, one of the world’s primary needs is for heat in winter, but solar energy comes in summer. It cannot be saved until winter with today’s technology. Spend enormous amounts and resources on electricity transmission lines and batteries to try to somewhat work around these problems. Try to find substitutes for the many things that fossil fuels provide today, including paved roads and chemicals used in agriculture and in medicine.
Hydroelectricity is also a renewable form of electricity generation. It cannot be expected to ramp up much because it has mostly been built out already.
Even if greatly ramped up, wind and solar electricity production would likely be grossly inadequate by themselves to try to operate any kind of economy. In addition, at a minimum, natural gas, shipped at very high cost as LNG around the world, would likely be needed. Also, huge quantity of batteries would be needed, leading to a short supply of materials. Huge quantities of steel would be needed to make new electrical machines to try to replace current oil-power machines. A minimum 50-year transition would likely be needed.
I am doubtful that this second approach would be feasible in any reasonable timeframe.
[9] Conclusion. Figure 1 seems to imply that the world economy is headed for troubled times ahead.
The world economy is a self-organizing system, so we cannot know precisely what form changes in the next few years will take. The economy can be expected to shrink back in an uneven pattern, with some parts of the world and some classes of citizens, such as workers versus the elderly, doing better than others.
Leaders will never tell us that the world has an energy shortage. Instead, leaders will tell us how awful fossil fuels are, so that we will be happy that the economy is losing their usage. They will never tell us how worthless intermittent wind and solar are for solving today’s energy problems. Instead, they will lead us to believe that a transition to vehicles powered by electricity and batteries is just around the corner. They will tell us that the world’s worst problem is climate change, and that by working together, we can move away from fossil fuels.
Again, the whole situation reminds me of Aesop’s Fables. The system puts a “good spin” on whatever frightening changes are happening. This way, leaders can convince their citizens that everything is fine when, in fact, it is not.
NOTE
*If the US Federal Reserve raises its target interest rate, central banks of other countries around the world are forced to take a similar action if they do not want their currencies to fall relative to the US dollar. Countries that do not raise their target interest rates tend to be penalized by the market: With a falling currency, the local prices of oil and other commodities tend to rise because commodities are priced in US dollars. As a result, citizens of these countries tend to face a worse inflation problem than they would otherwise face.
The country with the greatest increase in its target interest rate can, in theory, win, in what is more or less a competition to move inflation elsewhere. This competition cannot go on indefinitely, however, because every country depends, to some extent, on imports from other countries. If countries with weaker economies (i. e. those that cannot afford to raise interest rates) stop producing essential goods for world trade, it will tend to bring the world economy down.
Raising interest rates also raises the likelihood of debt defaults, and these debt defaults can be a huge problem, especially for banks and other financial institutions. With higher interest rates, pension funding becomes less adequate. Businesses of all kinds find new investment more expensive. Many businesses are likely to shrink or fail completely. These indirect impacts are yet another way for the world economy to fail.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Diesel-Crunch-Is-Finally-Causing-Demand-Destruction.html
“Distillate fuel inventories are still about 13% below the five-year average for this time of year, but two months ago, they were more than 20% below the five-year average for that time of the year.”
it looks like it won’t be diesel taking down bAU this winter.
next.
This is a chart of end of month distillate stocks through August. It is down, quite a bit.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MDISTUS1&f=M
This is a chart of weekly distillate stocks. It seems to be up off the lows, a bit.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W
The Alcor Cryonics Facility in Arizona houses 201 whole bodies or brains preserved at very low temperatures. In the 2030s we can safely expect these patients to be ____.
decomposed.
The correct answer is ‘reanimated’.
oh, you say funny one.
Agreed!
Buried
Served for lunch
Dinner for the hippies at Arcosanti.
preserving brains lol
The entire Arab world is meeting with China, under the auspices of MBS, with a view to joining BRICS. The whole of West Africa has split from the old colonial master, France, and a pan-African conference is set to meet with Russia. Turkey is about to storm the Kurd regions of Syria with the oil fields that USA occupies. Japan is improving relations with China. Europe is internally rowing, economic interests are diverging from USA. &c. &c. The UKR fiasco is rapidly turning into the worst USA geopolitical debacle ever by far. The USA is about to lose its global hegemony.
The u,s is about to lose its global hegemony! Wrong unfortunately I would be willing to bet you the opposite! I wish they would but I am so sick of the whole Prediction of this that never comes true! How about China falls apart… Europe turns into Palestine… and unfortunately amid all the chaos the U.S gets stronger…,
ooh that’s a good one “Europe turns into Palestine”.
really it would be quite exciting if in the next few months US hegemony fell apart along with the Chinese economy and Europe too.
but the historic pace of monumental change is almost always slow as molasses in winter.
other than the black swan type of event that (almost) nobody can see coming, the world changes slowly.
otherwise if you mention it above then you are sort of seeing that it could be on the way, which is not black swan level.
while the excitement of monthly global disruptions in 2023 might be a plus, it also could be “be careful what you wish for”.
the above USA China Europe stuff could happen in the 2020s, but more probably in the 2030s or thereafter.
Yup maybe you are right David. Most people want it to happen sooner than later. I think the U.S has a ways to go. Countries without resources particularly energy are going first… Europe we are looking at you! Our predictions tend to be early you are correct in that David but the trajectory is still the same and things do seem to be picking up speed.
or maybe I am wrong.
we’ll see, just 37 days until 2023.
Sam, I do not like green eggs and ham.
Hello Mr.ianmonthorablablabla. Whilst I do like your counter fast collapse theory ( I do prefer life ) because it hasn’t happened in history, I am more of the opinion that we are now facing the end of history in that history is a human concept and prone to being completely wrong. Therefore a fast collapse is as likely as that of locusts who have just eaten all the crops, but failed to read history ? keep up the good work though, because my optimism needs stimulating : )
Are you the inamonthblablabla who posts on SurplusEnergy……?
it is fantastic to see that you have your own opinion.
never give up, never surrender.
I comment over there, it’s one of the best sites.
I lean towards impulsive contrarian, so over there I find myself opposing the idea of slooooooow economic decline, and here I think I’m in a small minority who don’t think there will be a fast Collapse within the next few years.
it’s all good.
the Universe will disregard all of our opinions, and Reality will reveal itself every month and year and decade.
bAU tonight, maybe.
Let’s hope really hard for UEP to finish next month – how about a Christmas Gift for FE – global martial law on the 25th?
Russians are building up their forces, sending more equipment. Ukraine is doing poorly. Not enough electricity, bread or water. Zelensky and his wife are insisting that they will not surrender. The only acceptable outcome is getting all of the Ukrainian territory back.
It is in Russia’s interest that things will remain stable. Expects a big initiative to come later.
Oil price cap, an idea from the US, has exposed great divisions among the Europeans.
There is more, but I don’t have time now to watch the video.
Subscriber Details Grim VAIDS Reality on the Ground
This substack’s subscriber going by the moniker 🤡🌎 made some very compelling observations in the comments section regarding the VAIDS that he is seeing all around him.
🤡🌎 is a licensed electrician with over two decades of experience working in the greater Boston area.
Thanks for the link. From my experience, these folks won’t admit they’re vax damaged. It’s also a political thing here. Trumpers are anti vax, anti science, climate science denying racist Nazis. They have been so propagandized that they wouldn’t even see sources outside of their msnbc, cnn etc. They’re doomed. Early on I tried reasoning with some folks but it’s not worth it. They can be reached. If I suggested Sparrow Health, they call the office and accuse wrong think. Gallows humor, I am looking forward to real estate here going down when they all pass
It’s just starting to get cold here. I’m not looking forward to it. What I can say is my company throughout covid would send you an email whenever anyone you worked closely with or if a customer had a covid outbreak. It was “dear employee, per company policy we are informing you that you’ve been identified as being in close proximity to a confirmed covid exposure”.
They’d recommend testing and tell you to wear a mask for a week. We aren’t told who got sick but everyone knows who’s out a week so it’s easy to figure out. It’s the same cast of vaccinated characters. Well…. They’ve quietly stopped providing these emails. A few weeks back in a department meeting, we brought up the fact that it seems only the vaxxed are getting sick.
We’ve been bringing this up since the spring. Now suddenly, there are no notifications 🤔 I was with my boosted boss a week or so ago. We were extremely close for several days and he got sick. He got covid again. I know he did because he personally texted me saying he tested positive and it was kicking his butt. My company didn’t send an email out. As a matter of fact, they’ve completely abandoned it.
The office folk I’d say were nearly all vaxxed a they’re the ones regularly out sick. They’ve stopped testing themselves mostly so it’s usually not RSV or covid it’s just “im feeling ill, won’t be in for the week”. A few tradesmen got vaxxed and they’re getting wrecked.
Today for instance I did a lot of extra work for this woman for free. They were small things but for me, if it helps this woman who’s suffering, it helps me mentally. I hope that makes sense. It’s wild I have to develop coping mechanisms. In the way back days, like 2019, I’m not doing more than I have to do. It’s business. Now, I just see all these vaxxies with cancers and it hits me hard.I’ve never met so many people with cancer during my 20+ year career. Just try to be kind to them because we both know what’s going on.
It’s true though. I’m concerned about societal collapse here. Will 95% vaxxed, what happens if 5%, 10% or more die or become dependent on care? All our first responders and hospital staff are presumedly vaxxed. Same with the people who purify your water, process your sewage, keep your gas an electrical lines running. I’m a worst case scenario, it’s going to be bad
https://www.2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com/p/subscriber-details-grim-vaids-reality
How good is that!!!
hahahahahahaha
Dunc knows this is happening but must keep up the facade of denial.
if he also knew the updated science, the cognitive dissonance would be huge.
I suspect then that most of the injured will not be delving into the science of what they did to themselves.
dunc – you get a spot on the Wall of Heroes… we’ll think of you often during our 30 years of BAU Lite — would you like me to name my private jet after you?
the image with that substack:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F73dad90d-2abd-446e-943e-28a53639c400_496x311.jpeg
comment:
“Not sure how to send you screen shots but this morning I was texting my best friend about his thanksgiving. He’s got family in the UK and Italy and lost two an uncle suddenly and and aunt unexpectedly. His state side relatives are all vax maxxed but now having regrets after his other aunt was diagnosed with cancer and his fathers heart is a mess.
Oh also all my aunts and uncles are talking about how they recently did their wills and estates and sh*t. They all know they’re dying
Imagine being in their heads right now though. Knowing they f*cked up monumentally to the point where they’re actively making wills
Even though they’re all only in their 50s. Not like they’re old”
Excellent!
Feed the MORE-ONS into the meat grinder of death.
Gosh – there were not long term studies but they shot the rat juice anyway – norm – tell us about your injury… come on norm … end the denial
Shall we take dunc’s reappearance as a mea culpa?
dunc what’s your updated opinion of the vax? I’ll use a D if you have changed your mind on the rat juice…
Are you still boosting?
Thank God we have posters keeping up the Covid stream while we implement the cbdc vax.
hahaha look see
Many key depop agenda countries do not like reporting their Covid jabbing stats any more. Maybe because it has been sticking like a sore thumb for the last 3 years? So, this is what we can see for Covid mortality in these select depop leaders:
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/hiding-covid-jabbing-statistics-now
Makes sense … just delete the lot — nobody hears the tree fall — winning.
More Boosters please — we are not at 6B … once we hit 6B then the final phase of UEP will begin…
Cull Baby Cull. Why not? Too much MORE-ONS.
Just make sure there is 30 yrs of fuel for my private jet and yacht… and a pilot for both
The charts look like Covid reports are dropped for long periods, and then many reports are added in at once.
About all we can look at is total death statistics, hopefully by cause. If total deaths are up, “regular” statistics by cause should give some indication why (but of course, no category for adverse impact of vaccines).
Looks as if anyone can sue for just about anything, which Lawyers love to engage..
After all, our self regulating network needs more avenues for growth and energy usage, no matter how frivolous…
Nov. 25, 2022, 10:14 AM EST / Source: Associated Press
By Associated Press
Hundreds of activists, among them Greta Thunberg, marched through the Swedish capital to a court Friday to file a lawsuit against the Swedish state for what they say is insufficient climate action.
More than 600 young people under the age of 26 signed the 87-page document that is the basis for the lawsuit which was filed in the Stockholm District Court.
They want the court to determine that the country has violated its citizen’s human rights with its climate policies.
“Sweden has never treated the climate crisis like a crisis,” said Anton Foley, spokesman of the youth-led initiative Aurora, which prepared and filed the lawsuit. “Sweden is failing in its responsibility and breaking the law.”
At a recent U.N. climate conference in Egypt earlier this month, leaders tried to keep that goal alive but did not ratchet up calls for reducing carbon emissions.
How many international conferences do we need to realized modern life requires fossil fuels energy?
Lawsuits are services, I would think. (I don’t know how the coding is actually done, but it would seem like this would be the case.) The bigger the award, the more “effective” the service. If multi-million dollar awards are made regularly, it would seem to add to the growth of the economy. The lawyers get their big cuts of the awards. Some of it may go back to individual citizens as well. The more “churn” the better, from a GDP point of view.
The undoubtedly a major “growth” industry, as you point out, for increase GNP activity as an added layer of specialization and complexity.
Once I remember hearing a comical observation regarding Modern Lawyers being like the Egyptian High Priest Caste of the Ancient Kingdoms …making the appearance of being in control…gives us all regular folks comfort we have some control in this world of ours.
Thank you Gail
I have uploaded this image that I extracted from the supplementary materials of the recent archaeogenetics paper on “The Anglo-Saxon migration and the formation of the early English gene pool” (Gretzinger, J., Sayer, D., Justeau, P. et al, 2022.)
https://i.postimg.cc/L5sZYrvr/Insular-Bell-Beaker-And-German-And-French.jpg
(A) shows present day British ancestry modelled as i) insular Early Bronze Age (British), ii) Early Medieval North Continental (north Germany – the ‘Anglo-Saxons’), iii) France Iron Age (added at various times since the Middle to Late Bronze Age).
(B) shows the same but with (i) set as the following insular Iron Age, (ii) as before (iii) France Iron Age ancestry only where added only after the insular Iron Age.
The paper estimates (B) at about (i) 33.9%, (ii) 40.7%, (iii) 25.4%.
Regarding (A), the insular Iron Age (B) already had substantial France Iron Age ancestry, so (i) is lower, and (iii) is higher. Precise figures are not given for that in the paper, but the image gives a fairly clear idea.
Overall, I would roughly estimate that the present English population is about 40% Germanic, 40% French and about 20% insular Early Bronze Age, although the proportions vary, sometimes substantially, across regions.
However, a substantial amount (maybe half) of the insular Early Bronze Age ancestry in modern England is likely due to Irish migration, particularly over the past two centuries; a paper would be needed to investigate that.
The Anglo-Saxon paper in question is here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05247-2
(supplementary materials are only in .docx; I converted to .pdf and screen snapped and trimmed the image from there.)
(The present-day English can also be 4-way modelled with the addition of (minor, about 6%) Scandinavian Iron Age ancestry, but I have given the 3-way model above. (ii) already had some, and a bit more was added in the Viking Age. Really I would like to see a model based entirely on Early Bronze Age populations, as I suspect that the German Iron Age was already part Scandinavian Bronze Age and part France Bronze Age. Deeper Mesolithic, Neolithic and general ‘Bronze Age’ (Steppe: mainly EHG, CHG) ancestry has already been modelled for pretty much everywhere.)
China should stay the course. Keep its one child policy particularly in the rural areas. Yes, at the moment there are too many old people, they will have to work to feed themselves. The problem will correct itself in thirty years.
Lowering the number of people increases the per-capita wealth of the nation. The sooner all nation understand this the better. Unfortunately, many nations are run by the rent collector that require lots of poor workers to pay rent or pay government provided rent money.
As long as centralized governments payout pensions to retired workers, then you have a debt based society. If that’s the case you need to breed more to pay for the retired people.
Here’s another problem with a debt based society. Workers today on average don’t make enough to pay for pensioners and we know this because we have record numbers of kids who went back to living with their parents after finishing college. So as a result, you’ll need even more births to cover the costs associated with pension promises. College today is a racket that only benefits the institutions along with the professors.
This is what happens when you saddle the future with debt to pay for the present.
Having one-child families messes up the age distributions of the Chinese economy. With the current age distribution, Chinese citizens need to keep working, essentially until they die. An economy with only one child per family cannot support itself otherwise. Many of the Chinese jobs are essentially manual labor. These jobs are hard for citizens to continue to handle, as they get older.
I agree but going further into overshoot is not a solution. It is just a question of who pays the price people now or people later.
It’s kinda like the UK Pension implosion that almost took down BAU — damned if you do damned if you don’t re interest rates and rescues
What is going on with China?!? I know it is not Covid … are they really already in bad shape economically?? It can’t be helpful to shut down regardless!! What are they trying to accomplish?
Yes, they really are. I have been trying to mention China’s problems with peak coal and all of its imported fossil fuels. Its one-child requirement has been a response to the lack of water, land, and fossil fuels for the economy. Now the demographic problems are starting to hit as well. I should go back an look up when China’s rolling blackouts started. It seems like it was in 2020.
The information we get from China is written in a way to make China look good. This is no different than the situation from anywhere else.
The demographic fear is a boondoggle especially in China. The argument that you need more and more young people to pay for the retirement of the old people is a lie designed to keep people grinding away at the treadmill. Government can easily take care of the elderly and retired and no it would not create “inflation”. It would make it hard for individuals to get wealthy off of old people/end of life.
Just print more $$$ to take care of the old people.
Money is meaningless. It is finite resources that matter. The US has dominated the world using money to secure the lions share of the worlds finite resources.
Resources and workers. Resources on their own are no use.
Print more resources.
it’s the energy output/surpluses of young people that cares for the elderly in retirement–basically taxation.
If there’s no production to tax in real terms, there will be no young people to pay taxes, and the elderly won’t get cared for.
China–UK–USA–wherever—things might be dressed up differently, but the equation remains the same
Gail, I doubt that in China, elderly people are given free $1M (equivalent) medical procedures like they are here in the US. Thus, I can assume that China’s elderly demographic demands much less on the economy than the US’ demographic.
Of course they have a demographic problem…but the West loves to frame everything in their own terms.
A critical take on the late Dr. A. Oveta Fuller’s (who died suddenly and unexpectedly last week) record from Substacker Dr. Panda. He/She/It went through Dr. Oveta Fuller’s Twitter posts, so the rest of us down have to.
https://drpanda.substack.com/p/fda-virologist-dies-suddenly?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
So we need two new vaccines.
One against dying suddenly.
One against dying unexpectedly.
I expect Dr Fauci could arrange for them to be ready in two months max.
Tim is a kind-hearted fellow and will probably volunteer to test them on himself.
Looks like the CovIDIOTS need a vax against blood clots, myocarditis, motor neuron problems… and 1,897 other side effects that were listed in the Pfizer list that they released a few months ago under court order.
The thing is…
If there were vaccines – even untested – that supposedly protected against the lot – the MORE-ONS would take very last one of them
hahahahahahahaha
Make it 3 cheese. A currency that heals the current system, a token based control cbdc injection. YES!! That would cure a lot of things. A currency booster, yes! A currency booster.
Get your shot now, 15% discount at Amazon and Walmart.
More cancer.
who died suddenly?
I will tell you.
I visited with a few people yesterday and today, and there was news that 2 of their friends DIED SUDDENLY very recently, one of them this Tuesday.
both were 50something men with no known health issues.
all facts seem to agree that this is accelerating (and the turbo cancers also).
As an Englishman, could I ask you what you think of Brexit, Mrs. Tverberg?
Good, bad, or a bit of both?
I see Brexit as something that had to happen. Britain wasn’t doing well enough financially to go along with the dictates and taxes associated with belonging to the EU. Its economy is too much focused on financial services and services to its own people. It cannot support much of a manufacturing sector. Britain’s North Sea is mostly depleted and its coal was depleted way back at the time of World War I. Natural gas has to be imported as well. Britain is less and less able to afford the imports it needs to maintain its economy.
I see Brexit as the first step in the collapse of the EU. It is in some way, the “canary in the coal mine.” I expect that the EU will fall apart, to a much more significant extent, in the next year or two. All of the infighting among countries is a sign the whole system is headed for collapse.
Thank you. An ominous future for the EU too, then.
Freedom comes with a price.
“… I see Brexit as something that had to happen…” —- and, in retrospect it’s obvious that the ‘vote’ or referendum was just a way of making it look like ‘the peoples choice’.
Within the great planes of currency migration, there’s no more room than a coffee pot.
David, your neighbors will start asking some serious questions with this one on your fridge.
I can help you out.
no more room on the fridge door!
it’s now filled with notes and quotes about OAS antigenic fixation ADE and many other science facts about viruses and useless vaccines.
bummer.
Cheers David.
My theory wrt Brexit. All of this collapse/powerdown has been planned well in advance and Britain is part of the planning. They got out so now it is full speed ahead with the destruction of Europe.
I predict that soon Britain will be looking like a safe haven and the Pound will make somewhat of a comeback. I believe that the UK will receive full support from the Western nations and may even become the main US military foothold in the region.
Just a thought.
Where will Britain get its energy from? How will it afford the imports it needs, both of food and of other energy products.
The only way Britain could do reasonably well is if its could keep raising its debt level, without causing the pound to crash relative to the US$. Liz Truss gave a demonstration that this is not possible.
We can be fairly sure that the British State has not thought things through. It is capable of making highly destructive moves, but that should not be confused with any nous or strategic competence.
As you say, UK will stand and fall with Europe. Quite who these other ‘Western nations’ are, who are going to maintain UK GDP is not clear.
Perhaps a totally collapsed UK that it is a military base of USA (I would not bet on even that) is supposed to be a ‘win’. File under ‘whatever.’
Can you please just wait patiently until we destroyed just anything and rebuild the bright future everybody wants so much that he or she does not even need to be asked to vote for any of this.
🙂
Norway?
Gail – You are of course right but only if the “owners” (I can’t bring myself to call them “elders” as that implies way too much respect), the owners give a rodents posterior about the general public…they don’t!
We are moving into massive, major upheaval so there is no doing reasonable. There is only the “West” against everyone else and I absolutely guarantee that the “West” will not go down quietly. If the UK stayed schackled to the EU they would go down hard. Now they have room to work.
Dennis – Please stop responding to my posts as if I am 12. I am certain I have way more knowledge of the world than you.
For many of you all – You would be much better off if you stop thinking of TPTB or the Owners as being bungling, ignorant fools. That is how they would like you to think of them but pay attention to what they actually do and accomplish.
Notice how the CIA is generally portrayed as a bunch of bumbling fools… that’s what they want…
They are of course anything but
If the UK stayed schackled to the EU they would go down hard. Now they have room to work.
Room to do what exactly? We need gas delivered by pipeline to run our fertiliser plants.
There are no pipelines coming from anywhere other than Europe or Norway.
Jef,
Not sure about collapse, life is part of the fabric of the universe, control is an illusion, the world is not deterministic.
As for a military foothold, most Americans want to live and let live, we have no desire to dictate to the world; it is time to solve our own issues in a manner which is the lease disagreeable to all.
Or, to paraphrase the Rolling Stones, you don’t get what you want, you get what you need.
Dennis L.
As an American I have no interest in a foothold in Europe. Let Europe defend itself. Yes, I know Europe has close to zero military capability and I do not care. A unified Europe from Paris to Moscow might be a good thing.
Jef, from a currency point of view, i tend to agree. The £ is backed by a country, the € is backed by nothing.
Backed by a heavily over populated country with severely depleted resources.
One that just barely avoided financial collapse only a few weeks ago.
One that is currently printing money and handing it out to citizens.
Read it again Withnail. Your comment goes for every nation. ‘Currency’ is the magic word.
Could you spell out what you mean because I have no clue.
The UK is not in a good situation and neither is the EU. This is nothing to do with currencies, it’s to do with energy suppplies.
Found this interesting plan from the club of rome about dividing the world into ten kingdoms a possible link to the ukraine russia conflict https://www2.ministries-online.org/biometrics/rome.html
A number suspiciously close to the number of international banking dynasties.
So it could have something to do with the creation of a new financial system perhaps drb753
Interesting!
didnt open it Adonis—”ministries online” set off too many alarm bells
I notice that the description at the bottom of the 10 regions in 1973 is a little different from what is shown on the map.
The idea seems to be that different areas have some things in common, in addition to proximity. A world ruler could, in theory, could rule over all of these areas. Or it world trade falls apart, I suppose that trade within these areas could still occur.
Good Day to All…found this short clip of importance from a talk given by Alan Watts
What If We’re Wrong? – Alan Watts On The Failure Of Our Technology
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B0TRFBC4qdg&list=PL-kvG9Ij6K75WSzfVl7dvJDA-USgw1An_&index=30
and we may have to come to the alarming conclusion that, the universe is smarter than we are.”
nature employs organic shapes. Fractals and organic shapes are in nature. Straight lines are rare in nature. Humans use straight and curved lines to build over the top of nature. Yet, we are most attracted to organic shapes because that is what we always saw until we perfected the use of straight materials.
He points out the obvious …humans have taken a “wrong turn”, in that the strive to make things better, produces results for us that are “better” temporarily, but in the end; destroying ourselves and the environment.
Beautifully produced and soothing voice of Watts..
Here in the States the onslaught of Black Friday Madness is upon us all to rush out and consume…which comes from the root Latin word…”to destroy”.
Interesting point!
Of course, from earliest times humans have been making changes in the direction of straight lines. I am sure the pre-humans looked for sharp rocks for some of their tools. They then learned to flake off pieces of one rock, using another harder rock, to make them sharper. Then they added heat to the process, I have read. This allowed even sharper edges. These tools could be used to cut meats or plants. They also could be used to make other things of value, such as primitive clothing.
Obsidian stone tools remain just about the sharpest edged tools ever created by humans.
But unfortunately Homo sapiens sapiens just seems unable to achieve the enlightenment in later stages to render survival possible.
The world is full of “ impossible things”……nanotechnologic pure copper springs wrapped around micro shafts found 30 feet beneath ground surface in Romania, Schist disc in Egypt, 2000 foot tall VLF transmission towers in thousands of feet of ocean, the list is vast and apparently hidden from the human collective.
The evidence of recurrent massive cataclysm is similarly “everywhere”. Blast damage on Mayan temples, evidence of incredible seismic events (machu pichu’s elevation to the 12,000 ft level), etcetc etcetc.
We keep building and existing in the same destructive, narcissistic, obsessive fashion.
We never learn, we don’t even look up,…..
We still aren’t.
I postulate that we were not supposed to damage creation, we were supposed to learn another way. We were supposed to live like the world was not “made for us”.
The world of the fairy folk, the world inhabited by “mythical” creatures like Sabe was always supposed to be.
No straight lines, no squared constructs, no fire technologies.
There are currently only a vanishingly few humans that make this attempt. I suspect that when the gates of the simulacrum close (Ik SakKak, Rostal) there may really be only 144,000 souls who move beyond this construct.
Dissolution awaits all others.
A shame really.
i would be very interested in the 2000ft VLF towers thousands of feet under the sea
link please?
I postulate that we were not supposed to damage creation, we were supposed to learn another way. We were supposed to live like the world was not “made for us”.
We don’t damage creation. The planet is not property and has no set condition it’s supposed to be in. The planet cannot be damaged by humans.
we have deluded ourselves that the planet belongs to us in the context of ‘property’
the planet is, right now, in the process of correction in that respect.
part of the delusion is that there is some ‘force’ out there that will care for humankind in our coming future.
You misunderstand my assertion.
I have no fear for “ the planet”.
I doubt it exists anyway,….. a version outside the similacrum may.
All the great resets that we can discern are “ natural forces”…… solar micronova, massed vulcanism, lithospheric displacement etc etc.
It continually destroys large scale global human civilizations. I don’t want to debate this. It is openly obvious and easily discovered today.
But the destructions are not driven by “ natural forces”. They come like clockwork,….. or programming.
Re: VLF antenna ,…. look up “shattered history” on YouTube (among others,….. sea sponge indeed lolololol)
This world is a construction. We appear (along with a couple of other hominins species) to be
the focus of an ongoing experiment/educational process.
Exactly why is above my pay grade,…. ask Phillip K.Dyck maybe lol
It continually destroys large scale global human civilizations.
Civilisations have been destroyed but not by spectacular events. They just ran out of wood.
You could say that does happen on a cyclic basis as forests regrow and farmland regains fertility.
And population tends to bounce back, once resources are available.
As long as there are unused energy resources, something is likely to mutate in the direction of using them.
that is the problem i think
‘as long as resources are available’
Grew up studying this guys teachings https://www.organism.earth/library/author/alan-watts
Interesting! I hadn’t run into him before.
This reminds me of how you describe your self organizing system:
https://www.organism.earth/library/document/do-you-do-it
Actually had Watts as a teacher in the 60’s.
Guest prof.
Once a week, one never knew what one was walking into.
Major player, but not on a blog like this.
wb Duncan
where’ve you been
Just traveling around the planet—
The middle 70’s are kinda interesting.
sure, no science for you.
What use is “science” if our seeing is off the mark? Our approach is creating more and more disorder…Yes, Duncan was a very interesting period ..even Jiddu Krishnamurti used the same words as Alan Watts in humans taking a wrong ( for lack of better a term). If that is so, we are going around in circles our thought will notproduce an outcome resolution.
Perhaps moonlighting in Kiev as a disinformation agent? I’ve seen you post on MoonofAlabama. Or is that your clone?
Hey Dunc! Your forecast that this whole thing would clean up the eugenics of the planet is coming true! How does feel to get cleaned up? Gotta love those brain prions huh?
“sure, no science for you.”
Oh no dunc would never write (or imply) a scientific opinion. Hes a philosophy major now.
lol
looks like folks missed you Dunc
We need to have a variety of views represented.
glad you made it back to where you started
Hey dunc… are you getting ready to be Culled?
The Elders decided to reduce by 6B — but how to ensure the best and the brightest survive the cull?
They ended up killing two birds with a single stone …the injections are both and IQ test and a death shot… if you fail the test and take the shot — you get Culled!
Hahahahaha….
As I have pointed out — it is not possible to cheat — even if the best and the brightest tell you not to take the shot cuz 1. you are at near 0 risk from covid if you are not 80+ and half dead and 2. there are no long term tests …
Doesn’t matter… you don’t not take the shot … there is no way to override that stew—ppid gene… you can’t help yourself… it’s kinda like how a dog can’t help but hump a leg… he’s just gotta do it even though you can tell him the leg is not in heat… and won’t like it…
How many shots has Dunc had? norm is vying with you for the title — although norm says he’s only had 4 even though the UK is on their 6th… but then norm has spike-brain so he is only barely functional … he’s probably on his 8th but has completely lost track… norm is addicted to the vax heroin … he needs his fix … ‘must to clinic again .. must more MRNA… must more spike… where clinic… ‘
eddys missed you Dunc
hi Dunc.
hey, want to talk OAS or antigenic fixation?
how about ADE Antibody Dependent Enhancement, where the vaccines make the human body less able to defend against new variants?
I’m sure you’re up to speed on all the latest science about how the covid virus has mutated to render the vaccines useless, as scientists had figured out about viruses since the 1950s.
isn’t science great?
if you have declined due to the usual aging process, I will understand that you aren’t up for a scientific debate.
I’m glad you can still remember the 60s.
The Pro Vaxxers have totally f789ed up… hahaha….
It’s a worst case scenario — nice when zombies suffer.
(The Economist + RSI – Swiss public news)
According to ‘The Economist’, Russia is on the verge of collapse, while according to ‘RSI’ (Swiss public news), Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.
I found interesting the interview to Swiss journalist Tinazzi in the audio inside the article.
He describes the situation in Ukraine, the audio comes from the official radio news of today time 07.00 am.
Among various things, he explains that energy infrastructures exploding in Ukraine cannot be easiliy substituted or repaired because the components are probably from ex Soviet Union parts and need to come from one specific side.
At the same time, Zelensky goes on saying that Ukraine borders must come back equal to previous situation, thus condmning his fellow countrymen to certain death.
I wonder if Zelensky is maybe, in this weird situation, the best Russia ally.
https://www.huffingtonpost.it/esteri/2022/11/24/news/russia_ingovernabile_putin_economist-10759082/
https://www.rsi.ch/news/mondo/Gli-ucraini-patiscono-ancora-la-mancanza-di-elettricità-15814171.html?_r_=_
(RT)
And here you can find another side of the story… the so called ‘Monaco Batallion’ (meaning ironically the Batallion who lives in or around the Principality of Monaco…)
An excerpt:
”Bye-bye, Kiev, hello Cote d’Azur: As Westerners send aid, here’s how Ukraine’s corrupt elites are profiting from the conflict
Officials and oligarchs have diverted much of the financial support sent to Kiev’
[…]
‘The Monaco Battalion’.
‘While Ukraine has undergone a general mobilization affecting all men under the age of 60, many former and current high-ranking officials, politicians, businessmen, and oligarchs have moved to safety abroad – mainly to the EU.
The mass flight of Ukrainian elites started even prior to the armed conflict. On February 14, 2022, 37 deputies from the Ukrainian president’s parliamentary faction (Servant of the People) suddenly went missing. Had MPs not been banned from leaving the country the very next day, others would have definitely joined them. Meanwhile, former officials and oligarchs enjoyed more freedom to move around. According to the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, 20 business jets took off from Kiev’s Boryspol airport on the 14th as well.
Tycoons were at the front of the line. Entrepreneur and MP Vadim Novinsky, businessmen Vasily Khmelnitsky and Vadim Stolar, Vadim Nesterenko, and Andrey Stavnitzer all left the country on charter flights. Millionaire politician Igor Abramovich booked a private flight to Austria for 50 people – taking relatives, business partners, and fellow party members aboard. Oligarchs flew from Kiev to Nice, Munich, Vienna, Cyprus, and other EU destinations. Another group of businessmen took off from Odessa on private planes. The owner of Vostok Bank departed for Israel, while the head of the Transship group flew to Limassol. An ex-governor of the Odessa region, Stalkanat’s Vladimir Nemirovsky, also left the country.”
https://www.rt.com/russia/566935-they-robbed-ukraine/
And of course, a lot of the munitions sent to Ukraine are made in the US. Funding them tends to ramp up US GDP and employment. It raises demand for fossil fuels and minerals of many kinds. By giving Ukraine aid, Biden is helping the US economy.
(Forbearance on student debt is also helping the US economy. There is no way that young people can actually repay the debt without cutting back on many discretionary expenditures. As long as debt repayment is “temporarily halted,” young people are better able to start families, to afford vehicles, and to afford larger apartments.)
Yes, but he is increasing the US debt.
Isn’t it?
Increasing US debt is almost like adding increasing energy supplies. It keeps the economy afloat, if justification can be maintained for the additional debt.
The 2008 July drop in oil prices came when the debt of US residents started heading downward.
Like how without debt most people could not own a car or a house.
I wrote 3 posts during Thanskgiving and they disappeared.
Anyways, a bifurcation of society, between a very totalitarian , controlled and extremely advanced society and a mediaeval, feudal , less advanced world is inevitable now.
The civilized zone of Constantinople was only about 3.5 square miles, and the civilized zone of Kyoto, where all these fancy stories like the Tale of the Genji occurred, was around 10 blocks big. In other words, it is possible to have a world where a tiny zone is very advanced, and everything else is just wilderness, like one of the episodes in the Genji story when the Genji, the central character, was sent away to Suma, a town about 30 miles away from Kyoto, and feels like it is the end of world for him.
The lack of energy will probably limit the size of civilization, but the smarter people like to be with other smarties so the civilized zones will be very , very overpopulated, with sky high rents and people sleeping in steel cages like those in Hong Kong where there are 9 cages in one bedroom (but people still flock to there since it beats rural poverty).
The landowners will be very stingy and merciless, but that is the price of an advanced civilization to advance to the stars with little energy.
We will not advance to the stars. There isn’t enough usable energy in the solar system.
Indeed, we can not send spacecrafts outside the solar system without gravitational assists from intervening planets. Voyager, IIRC, did get an assist from each planet it encountered (Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune). And it took 20 years to get to the edge of the solar system, which is 0.1% of the distance to the nearest, uninhabitable star. Payload equations are such that there is zero payload for anything resembling a reasonably sized interstellar rocket.
the civilised–ie city area of constantinople might have only been 3.5 sq miles–but the rest wasn’t wilderness–not on their terms.
A city needs energy support input—calling the surrounding area wilderness is short sighted in the extreme,
food just doesnt magic itself into existence, cities require a managed agrarian-economic system in order to exist–the bigger the city, the more space around it is needed.
but that doesn’t make the city ‘more advanced’–they were almost invariably centres of disease and filth (read Pepys diaries)—in plague times, city dwellers knew to get out of cities fast. Cities were, (and are to a great extent) money changing centres. little more than that.
The critical factor in any form of ‘living’ is disposal of body wastes. Cities simply did not have that facility.
Post energy-collapse, that problem will re assert itself.
Cities were, (and are to a great extent) money changing centres. little more than that.
The critical factor in any form of ‘living’ is disposal of body wastes. Cities simply did not have that facility.
Actually they did, Rome and Constantinople had extensive sewer systems and public toilets as well as aqueducts.
The main sewer in Rome was known as the Cloaca Maxima, many other smaller sewers fed into it.
granted rome and constantopile had sewers…most cities did not.
my point too, refuted the idea that cities could exist in isolation, as ‘advanced cenres’–surrounded by wilderness. They couldn’t.
Even smaller ones did. Anywhere that had one or more aqueducts would have had them.
For example York in Britain had sewers.
I think and experiment a lot with what to do aBOUT BODILY WASTES IN SMALL, CIVILIZED PLACES. The best I can come with is to store the waste neatly in cardboard boxes covered with inches-thick cardboard panels (weighted down by bricks or rocks) . The waste will of course be generously mixed with leaves, paper, twigs, etc.. It will be left to decompose naturally. After 5 years or so, expert compost managers will test it and correct for pathogens so that it can soon-enough be used for urban food production. Artleads
seriously interesting line of thinking artleads. it’s a situation that concerns me for our future.
however, an adult human produces 1 lb of excrement a day–365lb a year, give or take.
multply that over 5 years for the smallest community—let alone cities— and as i see it there’s a problem.
its a problem i can offer no solutions for fixing
Stacking same-size industrial boxes lends itself conceptually to storing large amounts of waste in a small space. But while you can stack (foil lined) slow-to no-decomposition-time boxes, it may not be possible with already-decomposing boxes. So,shelving till decomposing-box-space gets freed up?
Lost my response to this, but it had to do with the possibilities for stacking boxes on shelves in a staged manner according to their protection against and speed of decomposition (or possible contamination potential).
not many applications for the job of box stacker i imagine
Norman, right, A city needs energy support input:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johann_Heinrich_von_Th%C3%BCnen
Saludos
el mar
I decided not to display the missing three comments. I try to be pretty liberal in the posts that I put through, but some of your views/ideas are just too over the top for readers to put up with on a very frequent basis.
“The trauma of Covid lockdowns has left many French people unwilling to leave their homes, feeling tired and less motivated at work © Getty Images / Image Source
Laziness regularly prevents nearly half of the French population from leaving their homes, a new study has revealed. The “epidemic of laziness,” which is affecting roughly 45% of the population, is a direct consequence of the Covid lockdowns, the researchers say.”?
https://www.azerbaycan24.com/en/laziness-epidemic-grips-france-study/
Could it be a side effect of the vaccine?
When I see people wearing masks here in NZ — they don’t have to — and it does nothing to protect them anyways…
I immediately think — Hyper MORE-ON… I don’t say anything …. but that’s what I am thinking
I got into the hotel lift yesterday and a women – maybe 40… gets in with an N95… I am looking at her out of the corner of my eye and thinking how f789ing stoooopid she is… wondering what her IQ might be… how does she feed herself … can she count to 10? tie her shoes? How does she walk — surely she must stumble over her feet…
Strangely I don’t feel like beating her to death… in that respect my thoughts are benign… that might be because I know she’s 100% multi boosted and will soon be culled…
And fed to the pigs (FTTP)
That’s a pleasant thought. Maybe we feed the vax injured to the pigs while they are still alive? Pay per view that along with MMA fights?
Indirectly, I think that it is the same problems that caused the Covid lockdowns that is causing the lack of interest in jobs and getting ahead.
Worldwide, the real problem is the lack of a growing supply of inexpensive-to-produce energy, of the right types. If such energy were growing worldwide, young people would see great opportunities ahead. In fact, their wages would be plenty high for them to find spouses, get married, and start a family. The inexpensive energy would lead to a growing number of jobs that pay well.
We have been heading in the direction of employees being “dispensable” in the past. Older people have been less affected by this trend than young people.
Even now, when there is a shortage of workers, employers are now trying to make unreasonable demands of the employees they have. One person was being asked to work six 12 six-hour shifts in a week, instead of his usual pattern of three 12-hour shifts one week, alternating with four 12 hour shifts. Another person I talked to was being asked to come in on Sundays to work, even though she had specifically asked to have Sundays off.
Older people have, to some extent, been sheltered from these problems. They are either retired, or they are well established in their jobs. They often own their own homes and have quite a bit of equity in them. They don’t have to balance the demands of trying to take care of children with both parents working full time (or even worse, a single parent trying to raise children on her own).
Thanks for this clarification.
I also find that there are a lot contradictions in offer for new jobs to young people.
From one side European Countries, Companies and Media are complaining and whining that there are not enough truck drivers for the Society and they wonder why young people don’t want to follow that good opportunity.
From the other side, the same European Countries, Companies and Media are presenting autonomous driving (including trucks) as a fantastic opportunity for the future, which is very close to be finalized.
If I were a young person, I would say:
‘go to hell you and your truck driver job!’
‘You need a truck driver?
Well, call a self-driving-truck and don’t bother me!’
This is what happens when you pay people to do nothing – they get used to it.
Then there is the problem with the inflation sapping their motivation — when you are going backwards that leads to despair
‘I have over 40 years of legal and restructuring experience. I have been the Chief Restructuring Officer or Chief Executive Officer in several of the largest corporate failures in history. I have supervised situations involving allegations of criminal activity and malfeasance (Enron). I have supervised situations involving novel financial structures (Enron and Residential Capital) and cross-border asset recovery and maximization (Nortel and Overseas Shipholding). Nearly every situation in which I have been involved has been characterized by defects of some sort in internal controls, regulatory compliance, human resources and systems integrity.
Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. From compromised systems integrity and faulty regulatory oversight abroad, to the concentration of control in the hands of a very small group of inexperienced, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals, this situation is unprecedented.
For purposes of managing the Debtors’ affairs, I have identified four groups of businesses, which I refer to as “Silos.” These Silos include:
(a) a group composed of Debtor West Realm Shires Inc. and its Debtor and non-Debtor subsidiaries (the “WRS Silo”), which includes the businesses known as “FTX US,” “LedgerX,” “FTX US Derivatives,” “FTX US Capital Markets,” and “Embed Clearing,” among other businesses;
(b) a group composed of Debtor Alameda Research LLC and its Debtor subsidiaries (the “Alameda Silo”);
(c) a group composed of Debtor Clifton Bay Investments LLC, Debtor Clifton Bay Investments Ltd., Debtor Island Bay Ventures Inc. and Debtor FTX Ventures Ltd. (the “Ventures Silo”);
(d) a group composed of Debtor FTX Trading Ltd. and its Debtor and non-Debtor subsidiaries (the “Dotcom Silo”), including the exchanges doing business as “FTX.com” and similar exchanges in non-U.S. jurisdictions. These Silos together are referred to by me as the “FTX Group.
https://palexander.substack.com/p/this-is-unprecedented-enron-liquidator
The whole thing is fake
It is hard to believe that anyone could get away with a complete lack of corporate controls. Of course, an awfully lot of things in the last three years have been pretty unbelievable.
comment under the article:
“FTX was a Ponzi/money laundering/political corruption scheme from Day 1. It was established immediately after Biden announced he was running for president. It became a multi-billion dollar company impossibly fast – a red flag in itself. FTX was the 2nd largest donor to Democrat politicians in 2021 and 2022. It also donated to a few key Republicans such as McCarthy. FTX moved money into Ukraine for “humanitarian purposes” – code for money laundering and channeling money to corrupt politicians.”
Hey what about all those indios who were infected by the Pox and died 500 years ago… terrible thing … just terrible…
https://thecountersignal.com/study-claims-stress-from-anti-vaccine-misinformation-causing-adverse-effects/
CONVID misinformation is causing stress which in turn is causing adverse effects like blood clots, myocarditis and much more according to a new study.
Convid hahaha… I wonder if I could get a personalized plate with that?
😀 😀 😀
You’d think these absolutely ridiculous findings from this study would wake the MORE-ONS… but nope …
Telling them fluffing their duvet could cause a heart attack didn’t wake them up
They are Mentally Ill.
eddy
5.58…..5.59….6.02….6.04—whew.
if we’re discussing duvet fluffing??????
Is your kb under it?
are you ambidextrous—two keyboards?
i don’t wish to pursue this matter any further—-but curiousity has always been my curse–ever since i was a nipper
Norman, you are looking pretty silly.
it was in reply to silliness
i would prefer not to
*******
“”You are trapped in a single dimension .. you don;t have the ‘IQ’ to escape (in all seriousness)”
********
“You’d think these absolutely ridiculous findings from this study would wake the MORE-ONS… but nope …
Telling them fluffing their duvet could cause a heart attack didn’t wake them up
They are Mentally Ill.””
*********
Don’t mind norm’s insane ramblings…
He’s spiked his brain and that has lead to a form of… Mental Illness…
Similar to Alzheimer’s…
yup
i like the definition of mental illness
”sorry sir, your eddyitis is incurable.”
as ive said,, your utterances tell everyone what you are, not what ‘they’ are
Gail, Thank you for all your work!
And everyone who contributes to this fascinating blog.
You are welcome. Also, I like “O Holy Night” very much. Much calmer than our current situation.
Yup https://t.me/chiefnerd/6152
norm?
norm?
The number of NHS beds occupied by patients without covid has now reached a record high and exceeds the entire hospital capacity for January 2021
https://twitter.com/clarecraigpath/status/1595750291818807301
More beds have become available in the UK?
Consumption per capita equals living standards. Only if we want to keep our living standards up we need to reduce capita. That means human lives directly competes with living standards. The article elegantly circumnavigates this. We are tested on our humanity.
Very likely politics will use multiple approaches. Birthrates are already falling, excess mortality is high, travel restrictions, climate change and the Ukraine war are already reducing living standards.
Energy consumption is split into thirds: Industrial, households, individual transport. Political management will very likely cut the last sector first and replace it with more efficient public transport or no transport at all. In the USA with its huge distances this is more difficult than in Europe.
As a consequence there will be problems due to reduced scaling. If the car industry shrinks so will the steel, semi-conductor and plastics industry. That could increase the machine costs for agriculture and transport. It could also affect oil production and transportation. Investments into infrastructure will not pay off. In addition there will be a structural recession that is not followed by a cyclical upturn with all financial and economical consequences. The work-force and its purchasing power is another factor.
Supply crunches lead to seller’s markets. Most oil will not reach world market but be sold before. Buyers will try to secure their share by contracts. We can see that already looking at the contracts Iran/China, Russia/Germany, the formation of the BRICSS or looking at the unsuccessful tries of some European countries to obtain more resources on the world market.
I don’t know if OPEC+ could ramp up production and how much investment would be needed but it seems to me that the reduced productivity of the oil because much of its productivity must be invested into oil production itself will not allow this investment.
The end of oil production in many countries lead to a concentration of resources in the Middle East and Russia. These countries can now produce weapons and operate the military while other cannot. This leads to changes into the world security system.
If you have a little log cabin in the wild and the roof starts to become defective you cut some larches and split them into shingles. The cabin can easily be maintained. If you have a house isolated with styrofoam and parts of it needs repair, how are you going to do that without styrofoam being produced? You cannot attach bales of straw to modern buildings. It means that much of our investments become worthless while aging. Usual utilisation periods must be adapted.
Cities are dependend on food and water supply and national security. In the moment these fail people must run out and try self-sufficiency in a secure area. The general military disbalance, see above, will remain. It means oil countries could easily enslave the population of the buyer’s countries and make them tributary.
If you expect the people’s parliaments to become ineffective there is need of other structures for administration. These structures must be established and paid. I guess, the multi-national companies are trying to fill the gap. The problem is, that these highly depend on a working economy, more than a parliamentarian system, and in the moment cities, internet, electricity and transport fail the new structure will break down.
The world as we know it and the forseeable future have an expiring date. We are in a dead end.
every human body has an expiration date.
which makes all of these other problems temporary.
What if the threat of CBDC and the Oil Price Cap are engineered together? That is the new price of oil is some CDBC units + let’s call it a coupon of USD$70.
Financial engineering is not my wheelhouse, so I cannot quite express it to satisfy the mavens. George Gammon’s explication of how FTX and Musk’s Twitter are similar in structure, not morality, has me wondering. https://youtu.be/Ul_xHcATS7U (We do this kind of repackaging in theoretical CS all the time.)
We are being presented how India and China are arbitraging Russian oil as if it is the only move in the game. But they are repackaging it, wrapping the oil in a different financial transaction. (Tom Luongo is trying to present other interpretations of the The Fed which are even harder, for me, to summarize whereby he supposes there is a bifurcation going on between domestic debtors and international savers.)
Anyhow, I am wondering if the price cap is a framing device for what is instead a required coupon to accompany the purchase of oil which eases (or wedges) the adoption of a completely different unit of pricing for oil. Say, once India/China get addicted to the arbitrage they become mules/addicts/pushers for other changes to stay juiced. Like that international TBill holder receives CBDC units and must make the choice what to do with the USD now: spend it on American goods or launder it into CBDC. And the price cap is the throttle on the transition.
If anyone has better words, it would be great to learn them. I have long thought that Gail’s observation that oil availability is not increased by higher prices is a constraint that cleverer minds are using as a foundation in order to implement a different “mathematical function” over the economy.
They just don’t have to sell the oil to anyone who ties them in with CBDC…. willing seller willing buyer. If you don’t pay me, I don’t sell to you. If you pay me funny digital money, I won’t sell. See who lasts longer
We are being presented how India and China are arbitraging Russian oil as if it is the only move in the game. But they are repackaging it, wrapping the oil in a different financial transaction.
We are being told this is happening, I see no evidence that it is to any significant extent. It makes much more economic sense to use oil to grow their own economies, not resell it for useless euros or dollars.
I freaked out when i found this could be a coincidence https://theelders.org/
those people are really just minor actors.
the main actors are the known billionaires and the even higher ups, many of whom don’t want to be named publicly.
this is a better site:
http://www.eldersarefeebleoldfarts.com
You are “pulling our leg.” But I agree, these are not the real elders.
Very interesting reading on the elders website if you believe everything on this website we are being encouraged to choose option 2 as detailed in Gails latest article .The elders also state that saudi Arabia and Russia are holding out and not participating in the general consensus.This may explain why interest rates are rising the elders are trying to take out prices for fossil fuels which would take out Russia and Saudi Arabia who clearly wont play ball it means one thing the elders are taking all the governments that are following them into the abyss.
Countries that don’t have fossil fuels can’t take out powerful coutnries that also have fossil fuels.
Red Herring Alert!
https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/its-war-josep-but-not-as-we-know
“Trying to understand what Ukraine is all about.”
he gives his take on the Russian long view of war.
the childish West doesn’t stand a chance.
https://gordonhahn.com/2022/11/22/the-russian-winter-offensive/
he gives his take on a shorter timeline, as the title says mainly through the winter.
the inevitable Ukraine defeat is getting closer.
https://thesaker.is/electric-war/
making Ukraine into a DMZ.
https://thesaker.is/ending-nato-and-correcting-stalins-mistake/
the hopeful end of NATO.
I see all the recent pronouncements/threats by NATO that they are going to patrol Taiwan straits…protect Taiwan as”peak NATO”. Europe can’t even build/equip a navy anymore. The UK can’t afford to make/equip ships. NATO is now a bunch of countries arguing with each other over energy and now political infighting is rising. Everyone knows that NATO is really an extension of US military power.
I think NATO will come to some sort of humiliating end…not sure how.
Ukraine is all about providing an excuse for those massive gas bills as winter kicks in
i daresay all those Ukrainian crisis actors will get a huge bonus for sorting out the gas supply problem eddy
provided they live through the winter of course
The WSJ is reporting:
China Recovery Set Back by Record Covid Outbreak as Lockdowns Spread
Economists see pandemic restrictions as a brake on growth in the world’s second-largest economy
I would add that China also has major energy problems. It is past peak coal. It has been the world’s largest importer of oil, coal and natural gas. It has added a lot of wind and solar, but these are hard to integrate into the grid. The country has had rolling blackouts for quite a long time and we have heard about pleas to conserve food.
Unplug the Chinese and that buys time for UEP… we can’t have them travelling and buying shit
Have a mate who is in luxury retail — the vast majority of their customers are Chinese… they are losing massive amounts of $$$.
George Gammon compares the collapse of bronze age Egypt with the present possibility of US collapse:
Actually, the US is collapsing more like Ancient Rome and they were both Republic governments.
The US is like ancient Egypt in 1175 B.C.E. Both were dependent on imports from other countries. Egypt had a problem because the Sea People were decimating the economies of the areas around Egypt. The US has a problem because the US dollar is so high that it is very expensive for other countries to buy the commodities they need. They also run out of the US$ they need.
The US needs to import more and more. In fact, their trade deficit becomes greater and greater/ If other countries don’t have goods they make to export, the US will collapse, as with Egypt in 1175 BCE..
I remember from other sources that tin was especially needed to make bronze, and the mines from which tin was extracted were depleting. Tin was an essential import for Egypt. This came from a distance. One such mine was in Turkey, but it is depleted now.
http://chronicle.uchicago.edu/940106/tin.shtml
It also came from as far away as Cornwall in Britain.
Egypt had another problem in that there were no trees suitable for tools, weapons or ship building in Egypt itself. Mesopotamia had the same issue.
Winds blowing hard across the U.K. tonite, matching the CCGT gas turbines at about 15gW each. Nukes still a bit low on base load, it used to drop in about 7 steady a few years back, but hey ho. biomass (Drax – Appalachian wood pellets, imported int9 Liverpool) kicking in a couple and a handful of other bits and bobs…even Ireland sticking in a few kWs from their set up…think they still have a peat powered station over there, but not sure, to be sure.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
france used to supply base load for Europe, ‘them were t’ days’ , but now they are taking a steady 3 from the U.K. inter-connectors and all the others grabbing a slice from a windy day. Noggies taking a few electrons too, must be a bit low on rain there, up on the berg. No shortage in Bergen! Leaves still getting blown off trees here in the south east. Wet leaves on manhole covers are my worst enemy on a push bike.
Usually gets more fun around mid Jan to late Feb, v. cold, still days…PV drops a few at lighting up time , and dinorwic and cruachan only got half an hour boost for teatime peak. This year gearing up to be interesting…still seen no rolling blackouts as yet. Gas should never be used for electric power, as it’s too useful for heat and cooking in my house in direct use.
Thanks for your insights.
Frances nuclear problems are problems for everyone depending on its exported electricity. Norway doesn’t really have much electricity to export this year either.
Direct use of gas is very cheap in the US, in my experience. A lot cheaper than electricity converted to heat, even when it supposedly is very efficient.
Of course, electricity doesn’t really produce the material products (plastics, medical products, and many other things) that petroleum products, including natural gas produce.
We will have to see how the next few months play out in practice. The UK doesn’t have much gas storage capability.
Nor diesel?
“George Osborne’s decision to close Britain’s main diesel refinery and import diesel from Russia”? “
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2022/11/05/in-brief-collapse-ahead-how-bad-will-it-be-fracking-banned-the-other-energy-crisis/?fbclid=IwAR2NyamspRXJMXiz8I4jEJIXFeXs3viWuJBaMx09BNX3AR-MUKdb9_81_Oc
the compassionate and generous citizens of the EU surely will take in 20 million Ukrainian refugees.
no cost is too great for this noble cause!
after the fairytale ending where Russia is defeated, the caring and kind EU will swiftly rebuild Ukraine, and Europe will live happy ever after.
good and pure Europe surely will prevail.
then peace in our time!
The EU does not help Spain, Italy, or Greece why would it help Ukraine? Not to mention Libya.
Full title is “Trouble ahead for EU. Oil price caps, gas shortages, sky high LNG prices and refugees.”
Alexander has an interesting discussion of the oil price cap, shortly after the beginning of the tape. I hadn’t noticed that the idea original idea came from Janet Yellen. Everyone agrees that the cap won’t work. The most realistic cap at $65 or $70 per barrel. $70 is not very much different from what Russian crude oil is today selling for.
Europe wants to buy its LNG on the spot market. There won’t be enough LNG. Prices will skyrocket. The US is relatively self-sufficient in natural gas.
This whole episode is about de-industrializing Europe. The US would like a high natural gas price, so it can afford to extract more natural gas. Europeans have no plan, except subsidizing their own businesses. This is at the time that central banks are raising interest rates.
People in Ukraine are being told to leave the cities. This will create a massive refugee problem.
There will be big problems of all kinds in Europe. Perhaps in 2023, there will be real energy supply problems. So far, it is just high prices. Also, there is quite a bit of natural gas in storage.
People with a green vision for Europe want to see it come to fruition, even if they have to bring down industry and cause a lot of suffering.
The way Russia gets this conflict to end is by disabling Europe. Russia has figured out that they can get along without Europe, thanks to what has happened so far. Europe is not needed as an economic partner. Europe is a geopolitical threat. Weakening Europe is a priority now.
Russia is now able to build automobiles without European suppliers. The US is going to grind Europe down.
How did this Green Ideology arise in Europe? Electric cars h ave peaked at 15% of production in Europe, and then it has fallen back a bit. Greens got 15% of the vote. It is really Greens in an alliance with other parties that is causing the Green push.
Alex thinks that Europe will make it through this year (winter), but next year will be a big problem. There has been no planning for this.
Either Putin falls or the European Union falls. No political crisis in Russia. Even if Putin left, his successor would likely have similar or worse policies. A peace deal right now would get the people in Russia angry. Europe can’t really push Putin out.
EU has been good at kicking the can down the road. Merkel was good at figuring out ways to temporarily push the problem away. She kept peace with Russians and other countries. Now every country is arguing and quarreling with other countries. They have no person like Merkel to steady the ship.
“This whole episode is about de-industrializing Europe. The US would like a high natural gas price, so it can afford to extract more natural gas. Europeans have no plan, except subsidizing their own businesses. This is at the time that central banks are raising interest rates.”
So the US gets high natural gas prices, natural gas comes from fracking oil wells, this subsidizes fracking and fracking then makes sense. Fracked oil is combined with heavy bitumen from Canada. The by product becomes the most profitable part of the process.
Actually, if this is the case, it is pretty damn smart.
Dennis L.
natural gas comes from fracking oil wells,
It doesnt. Most fracked gas comes from gas wells.
Fracked oil wells do produce gas but they arent connected to pipelines so it’s flared.
It is another USA total debacle like Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq &c. The worst of the lot by far. USA intended to ‘flip’ Russia and to isolate China before the big confrontation.
It has totally failed to do that and much of the world is now cohering around Russia and China like never before. And Europe, the main USA ally, is now massively weakened.
This is the debacle where USA loses its geopolitical hegemony, which is all that USA really cares about. So this is monumental USA fail.
High LNG prices would be at best a very sorry consolation, and that assumes that Europe would be able to maintain demand at higher prices, which remains to be seen.
In any case, in no way would that come even close to compensating for the loss of USA hegemony. The USA century is coming to an end, and this debacle has totally failed to avert that, and even massively hastened it.
summary seems to be:
the current european model was constructed on the assumption of cheap energy forever
now there isn’t any
Happy Thanksgiving to those of you observing today. I enjoy the OFW commenters. I am especially grateful for you Gail! What a great work this is! Thank you so much.
The only blog worth reading regularly! Thanks Gail!
Indeed. I have come down to this single blog as a regular. I miss Harry McGibbs but most of the relevant info is still here.
Harry is excellent on Tuesday Thursday and Saturday.
https://climateandeconomy.com/
MWF are too much about glowball weather. 😉
You are very welcome. I enjoy doing it.
My husband and I will be having our Thanksgiving dinner this evening with our two sons. They will be doing most of the cooking at our home.
In Russia we already dispatched a 19kg turkey. But the bewildering number of cranberry varieties created problems for my world famous cranberry chutney. I ended up putting five types in it.
From NewsMAX…”US Prepared to Authorize Chevron to Boost Venezuela’s Oil Output”
At the bottom of the article…”A growing number of firms are leaving joint ventures with Venezuela’s state company PDVSA over mounting debt and frozen operations. The portfolio shrink positions Chevron as the only strong partner left that could revive output, set to fall this year to about 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), way below the official target of 2 million bpd.”
Yes that is way below target…it would be interesting to know what other countries are way below…
It takes a lot of investment to actually get their very heavy oil out. The government of Venezuela needs tax revenue, but it is hard to get it from an oil company when the oil company’s direct costs are very high. It is not clear this will work out well.
Chevron operates the Kern River Heavy Oil Facility in California, so it has experience dealing with some of the problems Venezuela has. I visited its facility in 2009. You can read about it here.
http://theoildrum.com/node/5023
This chart shows California’s total production of crude oil. It clearly has been declining.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpca2&f=m
I found this article from 2021:
https://www.bakersfield.com/news/wells-sit-idle-on-s-f-s-kern-river-oil-field-property-with-no-final/article_62b31186-38d6-11ec-a3af-53f2a1466fb7.html
It sounds like Chevron was kicked out of at least part of the land used for this purpose–it lost its lease in 2020.
Wells sit idle on S.F.’s Kern River Oil Field property with no final plan for plugging them
The March 2021 Census stats found that 10 million usual UK residents were born abroad. The ONS announced today that 1.1 million people entered the UK in the year to June 2022, 700,000 from outside the EU. 500,000 people left; more EU people left than entered, as Brexit ended free movement with EU.
The Confederation of British Industry has been calling for more migration and it will will be pleased, insofar as it ever is, although labour shortages persist.
Nevertheless the Tories will still hope to garner votes on the migration issue, and they will focus on the relatively few (70,000 in addition to the 1.1M figure) asylum channel crossings.
> Net immigration soars to record high of 504,000 in the year to June – equivalent to the population of Liverpool and three times the year before – driven by end of Covid, arrivals from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong and more students
…. A total of 1.1million people are likely to have migrated to the UK in the year to June, the majority – 704,000 – from outside the EU.
By contrast, 560,000 people are estimated to have migrated from the UK in the same period, almost half of them – 275,000 – going back to the EU.
The imbalance means that, while far more non-EU nationals are likely to have arrived in the UK than left during these 12 months, the reverse is true for EU nationals, with more leaving than arriving.
Alongside 267,000 visas for people from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong, there has also been a large rise in the number of students from outside the EU.
Data shows 476,389 sponsored study visas were issued in the year ending September, a rise of 77 per cent compared to 2019, during the pandemic.
A total of 127,731 of these visas went to Indians – meaning they have overtaken China to become the most common nationality for students in the UK.
The number of people claiming asylum in the UK in the year to June was 72,027, close to the levels seen at the last peak twenty years ago.
He said Home Office statistics show the UK helped to safety more than 144,000 people from Hong Kong, 144,600 from Ukraine and 22,000 from Afghanistan.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11465245/Net-migration-hits-record-high-official-statistics-reveal.html
I was reading something by the elders and they said that two possibilities remain now for the world something called ” the giant leap” or ” too little too late” I wonder which one it will be.
Here Is the link
https://www.earth4all.life/
Adonis, Earth4All has five points:
end poverty
address gross inequality
empower women
make food system sustainable
make energy system sustainable
All fine goals but they are short on engineering/science/resource details on how to do this particularly the last two.
None of these goals add to civilization.
Power is mentioned the third point as in ’empower women’ … peak-oil will play against this which is why it’s still a taboo subject and outside of the Overton Window. Cause and Effect are at work again.
“end poverty”
after the Collapse, no more education, and the word “poverty” will disappear within a generation or two.
“address gross inequality”
after the Collapse, almost every survivor will be equally poor.
“empower women”
yes, don’t make them become hunters, let them all be gatherers.
“make food system sustainable”
a global population no higher than a few million should do the trick.
“make energy system sustainable”
the wood is ready, with the above population.
🙂
better delay things until the trees grow then
do the British Isles have any trees left?
(not a rhetorical question.)
obviously the survivors will have to live in areas with abundant trees.
lotsa trees
i have 3 big ones
trouble is there 68 m of us
big trees per capita would likely have to be much higher than 3 to 1.
“Too little too late.”
The idea that there can be a giant leap is just a myth. It reminds a person of “The Great Leap Forward” in 1958 to 1960. It ended up with a huge number of deaths. I am sure that there was too much population, relative to resources being produced, before the attempted great leap forward.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
A leap forward could only be to a state where more energy is used.
Since that isn’t possible, there can only be a leap backward.
If all these energy had not been wasted so the Third Worlders could ride in a car and use smartphones, we would have made it.
I doubt the Third Worlders would have wanted to make all kinds of useful things for the rich part of the world, if they did not get a share as well.
Made it to what? There’s no infinite energy waiting for us somewhere over the rainbow
Thank you Gail for additional info.
This excerpt seems very interesting and somehow it can be applicabile to the very weird situation we have worldwide (covid, vaccines, war, support to war, energy etc.)
It shows how negative feedbacks can bring to vicious circles which take a life of its own:
‘Local officials were fearful of Anti-Rightist Campaigns and they competed to fulfill or over-fulfill quotas which were based on Mao’s exaggerated claims, collecting non-existent “surpluses” and leaving farmers to starve to death.
Higher officials did not dare to report the economic disaster which was being caused by these policies, and national officials, blaming bad weather for the decline in food output, took little or no action.
Millions of people died in China during the Great Leap, with estimates ranging from 15 to 55 million, making the Great Chinese Famine the largest or second-largest[1] famine in human history.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
Unfortunately, this seems to be way too much like the situation we are encountering today.
can you send me the ‘elders’ link
i want to read what they have to say
https://www.bis.org/about/contact.htm?m=1081
thank you JMS
that seems to confirm my comment that ‘elders’ if they exist are concerned with financial markets
Showdown with Ottawa: Alberta’s New Premier Danielle Smith talks to Jordan Peterson about the friction between federal and provincial governments in Canada, the state of the oil and gas industry, and why Albertans are thoroughly fed up with subsidizing eastern Canada while the Feds keep interfering, pushing, blocking, overtaxing, and generally undermining the Province’s ability to function and develop economically. (approx. 90 minutes)
Ultimately, I expect that both Canada and the US will have to split up, in some way.
Maybe some unsupportable parts will wither on their own. It may be that the central governments cannot collect enough taxes for things like Social Security, or people get fed up with things like the US CDC’s corrupt announcements. Or poor people can no longer afford to live in the big cities. They either move out, or they become more vulnerable to disease and die. Or central governments can be overthrown, or simply close down when it is clear debt is un-repayable.
Isn’t US ‘social security’ run on a pay-as-you-go basis?
The UK state pension is.
Basically, to approximate the numbers, 25 million working adults have ~12-15% deducted from their pay. The sum raised goes straight back out again to pay ten million retired people a pension for life. At present the state pension, for those who retired after 2016, is ~30% of median income, probably ~20-25% of mean income.
Private pensions don’t work this way. They’re put into a ‘fund’ and ‘invested’. Since 2008, all I can say is good luck with that.
‘Pay as you go’ pension systems are viable even if economic growth ends for good. ‘Invested’ pension funds will blow up if they carry on pretending that returns will contonue to be positive.
I hope this appears. My last comment vanished.
In Canada a civil war is rapidly approaching.
No prizes for guessing how long before the US intervenes, and on which side, and what are the long term effects.
No way in heck. Those guys are way too polite and don’t own guns. Maybe they’ll grumble a bit and then apologize profusely for doing so.
crossing the border from Canada to USA last time took 90 minutes
Coming the other way took 90 seconds
that’s your difference in a nutshell—Canucks are just too polite for civil war
silly
I expect their civil war—if it comes—will be uncommonly civil.
On the other hand, Quebec might easily vote to become independent, and without that province the rest of the country could collapse like Heather McDonald straight after she blasphemed on stage.
This is a good one. I could watch it again and
again.
Nothing ever happens in Canada
Nah! most Canadians are clueless to the energy problems! But Americans are even more dumb donkeys! They have no idea why they are boiling in the pot but they are weak….
– Vaccinated people now make up a “majority of covid deaths.” It is “no longer” a “pandemic of the unvaccinated.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/11/23/vaccinated-people-now-make-up-majority-covid-deaths/
Cheena Ifone riots? https://t.me/leaklive/10366 https://t.me/leaklive/10375 https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/42159
E-ran https://t.me/leaklive/10367
Mass shoplifting https://t.me/leaklive/10382
Eddy, thanks for the good news.
can always rely on old tommyrobinson
It’s the CDC’s statistics, actually. And it was reported first in The Washington Post—which was Fast Eddy’s first link.
But as the Post is behind a paywall, here’s a link to the Daily Mail’s story.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11466261/Majority-Covid-deaths-vaccinated-Americans-time.html
Moreover, my own view of the situation is best summed up by this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FSFtHR9XIAEhtWc.jpg
norm will continue to ignore this .. at his peril…
norm claims a 3 digit IQ… surely he should be capable of working out that this is not a vaccine … oh right — they first told him he’d not get covid — then said it was never purposed to prevent covid – then they told him he’d not end up in the hospital and now it’s almost exclusively the vaxxed in the hospital and dying from covid.
norm can’t wait for the next booster…
Duh.
NSW AUSTRALIA, COVID HOSPITALISATIONS BY VACCINE STATUS TO WEEK 45
This data is expressed as admissions per 100,000 of vaccinated and unvaccinated status.
In other words the population size difference of the vaccinated and unvaccinated does now skew the data. This is comparing “apples with apples”
https://twitter.com/Sam92651162/status/1593049521353023489/photo/1
NSW AUSTRALIA, HOSPITALISATION, ICU AND DEATHS BY VACCINE STATUS TO WEEK 45 2022
The big tall bars are hospitalisation
The smaller grey bars are deaths
https://twitter.com/Sam92651162/status/1593565433168551936/photo/1
CULL the MOREONS
Vaccine Disaster, Best Case Scenario: “We’re Talking About 600 Million People Incapacitated”
If about 3 billion people took mRNA shots, and 7 to 15% of the batches had severe adverse events, that’s around 300 million people with permanent death and disability.
And, as Dr. David Martin explains, if those 300 million people now require the 24/7 care of other individuals, that’s another 300 million people dedicated to their care. “So, we’re talking about 600 million people incapacitated.”
Full Interview: https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/11/billions-could-be-injured-or-killed-by-the-jab-are-you-ready-dr-david-martin/ref/8/
Smallpox:
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&q=how+many+natives+died+smallpox+central+america
“ there was a Spanish explorer who went down the Amazon River system in 1541 to 1542 he
36:19
was the first European to cross the entire length of South America from west to east along the Amazon he reported
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seeing incredible cities advanced arts and crafts millions of people a thriving
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culture and hundred years later when other Europeans got into the Amazon they couldn’t find these cities so they said
36:38
oh Francisco Orianna that was his name made it all up it was just a it was just a fantasy and then in the last decade as
36:45
the clearances of the Amazon have proceeded we’ve begun to see the traces of those cities what happened was that
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the Spaniards brought smallpox into the Amazon smallpox devastated the local
36:56
population because there was no immunity to it there was a massive die-off the cities were deserted within a 50 years
37:03
they were completely overgrown by the jungle and that’s why they would not seen by the explorers who came in a
37:08
hundred years later but now the junk is being cleared those cities are emerging and we can say that a city like London
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which had a population of roughly 50,000 in the 16th century there were cities of that size all over the Amazon huge
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numbers of them and a possible total population of the Amazon that exceeded 20 million people . . . “
I cannot help but wonder if there weren’t other factors at play in the smallpox epidemic, and in particular in the deserted cities within 50 years.
I was looking at this entry about measles epidemics in Madagascar. It talks about them as occurring at regular intervals. Children from poor families are particularly vulnerable. Rich families (with better nutrition) seemed to be less affected.
My guess is that there were already population pressures in the area of the Amazon where the smallpox outbreak occurred. The situation was probably a collapse situation, brought on by a variety of things, including the smallpox epidemic. Otherwise, the number of people killed might be 10% or 20% of the total, but the cities would have continued and become rebuilt.
Of course, no malnutrition, no epidemics. It is the elephant in the room and no one ever talks about it.
You cant clear the jungle and build cities. The farmland would be exhausted in no time. The jungle soil is actually not at all fertile when you try to grow crops.
These cities probably collapsed before Westerners even arrived.
There are many other places in the world where there are failed jungle cities, such as Mexico and Cambodia.
Famously, they used charcoal to make the soil retain nutrients. Of course it did not work, at least long term, and it is possible that indeed they collapsed on their own. Healthy vegetarian diets do not exist, but in the Amazon you can get as healthy as it can be, if you just use the incredible fruit and nut wealth the region has (in the form of permaculture). I misplaced my 1000 pages tome on Brazilian fruits, but there is no world region that is like Brazil when it comes to tree crops.
Yes humans can and do live there as long as they don’t destroy the jungle.
It is called biochar and it seems to work quite nicely to keep the microorganisms happy and give garden bed a productive kick when the process is managed properly. Gonna make more this season.
The Angkor Wat failed not because it was in a jungle but because of hubris and it was perhaps over engineered to a minimum amount of monsoon rainwater to keep the canoe-highways functioning. So one little blip and like Babylon, poof.
The over celebrated marvels of Angkor Wat likely fueled the dreams of the perfect agrarian-cum-proletarian revolution of Democratic Kampuchea.
They also have fish.
‘Stillbirths Aren’t Being Called Stillbirths’ as Growing Number of Near to Full-Term Pregnancies Come to a Termination
“There’s a very, very large increase in near to full-term pregnancies that are actually coming to a termination,” reported Dr. David Martin.
“The increases in some cities and towns are going up by 22, 23, 24% on a quarterly basis, and that’s just mind-boggling.”
Full Interview: https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/11/billions-could-be-injured-or-killed-by-the-jab-are-you-ready-dr-david-martin/ref/8/
(Jerusalem Post)
inside the article:
‘UK to provide £50 million military aid package for Ukraine
On a visit to Kyiv over the weekend, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced another military aid package of £50 million would be sent to Ukraine.’
..who knows what English people think about that during this period of crisis..
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-723206
Civilization as short film
George Harrison. The heaviest Beatle.
There is some notion that money creates energy. In reality, capital is a loan against future supply of energy.
The moneylenders cannot create energy on their own. They have to make sure the mechanism to obtain energy for almost no cost is maintained, and now it is becoming hard.
People could be paid with cigarettes or vodka, just like the roman times when salt sticks were paid as wage (from which the word ‘salary’ came from).
If they bankers cannot control energy, all these dollars they have will be worth no more than the infamous zimbabwe dollars since they can’t be used to secure energy.
I think you are right about this.
A new study has found that humans were fishing and cooking at least 780,000 years ago!
> Oldest evidence of the controlled use of fire to cook food, researchers report
The remains of a huge carp fish mark the earliest signs of cooking by prehistoric human to 780,000 years ago, predating the available data by some 600,000 years, according to researchers.
…. Until now, evidence of the use of fire for cooking had been limited to sites that came into use much later than the GBY site — by some 600,000 years, and ones most are associated with the emergence of our own species, homo sapiens.
Prof. Goren-Inbar added: “The fact that the cooking of fish is evident over such a long and unbroken period of settlement at the site indicates a continuous tradition of cooking food. This is another in a series of discoveries relating to the high cognitive capabilities of the Acheulian hunter-gatherers who were active in the ancient Hula Valley region. These groups were deeply familiar with their environment and the various resources it offered them. Further, it shows they had extensive knowledge of the life cycles of different plant and animal species. Gaining the skill required to cook food marks a significant evolutionary advance, as it provided an additional means for making optimal use of available food resources. It is even possible that cooking was not limited to fish, but also included various types of animals and plants.”
Prof. Hershkovitz and Dr. Zohar note that the transition from eating raw food to eating cooked food had dramatic implications for human development and behavior. Eating cooked food reduces the bodily energy required to break down and digest food, allowing other physical systems to develop. It also leads to changes in the structure of the human jaw and skull. This change freed humans from the daily, intensive work of searching for and digesting raw food, providing them free time in which to develop new social and behavioral systems. Some scientists view eating fish as a milestone in the quantum leap in human cognitive evolution, providing a central catalyst for the development of the human brain. They claim that eating fish is what made us human. Even today, it is widely known that the contents of fish flesh, such as omega-3 fatty acids, zinc, iodine and more, contribute greatly to brain development.
The research team believe that the location of freshwater areas, some of them in areas that have long since dried up and become arid deserts, determined the route of the migration of early man from Africa to the Levant and beyond. Not only did these habitats provide drinking water and attracted animals to the area but catching fish in shallow water is a relatively simple and safe task with a very high nutritional reward.
The team posits that exploiting fish in freshwater habitats was the first step on prehistoric humans’ route out of Africa. Early man began to eat fish around 2 million years ago but cooking fish — as found in this study — represented a real revolution in the Acheulian diet and is an important foundation for understanding the relationship between man, the environment, climate, and migration when attempting to reconstruct the history of early humans.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/11/221114111017.htm
USA diesel stocks continue rising:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm
now 109 million barrels, was 106 every week of October.
the “Only 25 Days Left” must be at least 26. 😉
(oh look, now railroad strikes are on the horizon.)
I wouldn’t get excited about week to week fluctuations in amounts. Weekly EIA estimates for most things are not very accurate. This is a link to a zero hedge article with some graphs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/most-crucial-industrial-fuel-faces-global-shortage
What is the difference between USA, Germany, Japan, China and Russia?
It is the level of energy efficiency efforts: While the West leads this effort on all levels, Asia is behind in energy efficiency of buildings, especially China that suffers from cheap construction of inefficient buildings and rising energy consumption of air conditioning.
Russia is clearly behind the West:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://rise.esmap.org/data/files/library/russian-federation/Energy%2520Efficiency/Russian%2520Federation_dru_20131017_11_en.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwi7karB78X7AhUZwAIHHUY3DUIQFnoECB0QAQ&usg=AOvVaw0ay9Hr53_9GfO2AhzZiIbB
“Government policy on energy efficiency covers mainly
state-funded organisations and residential buildings as well as lighting and appliances. Industry and the transport sector, which have considerable energy saving potential, are mostly not
covered by the governmental programme. The first assessment of intermediate results by the Center of Energy Efficiency in Russia shows that out of 89 established indicators 47 are not
achieved. This is explained by the failure of mandatory energy audits, lack of an energy services
market, lack of long-term financial capital, the non-obligatory character of many norms and
standards on energy efficiency, and the resulting lack of monitoring.”
I would say that the quest for energy efficiency is an indicator that makes the West and Japan ahead of China and Russia.
The cheap construction of inefficient buildings in China and neglecting the energy efficiency implementation in Russia are the main factors that are behind the current problems of these countries.
As the cheap energy supply is dwindling, there is no way to compensate it than increasing energy efficiency. On all levels: economy and social life. E.g. gay marriages/partnerships in the West and the lack of them in Japan is one of the contributors to higher social atomisation in Japan and the higher level of loneliness.
The offer of socialization options is broader in the West than in China, Japan or Russia, where the traditional family values can not cope with the rising atomisation if the society due to the falling supply of cheap energy.
Also the ‘west’ is very non-uniform. The USA for instance is behind Switzerland on GHG emissions, despite similar GDP per capita for both countries.
USA –
government-subsidised interstate highway system, vast driving distances, low -density suburbia, very little passenger rail
new buildings no better-insulated than in the 1980s, I read
Switzerland –
electric trains to every small town, trams or trolleybuses within cities and large towns.
buildings solidly-constructed and well-insulated, also its towns are relatively compact, making it possible to walk and cycle as well as use public transport.
The USA emits about 3x as many GHGs per capita.
Switzerland is a cold country that needs to be very energy efficient in order to have high standard of living.
What is neglected is the cost of “efficiency” which cost is directly related to energy inputted as well as the additional energy cost in maintenance of such devices.
DEF engines are a nightmare to maintain, on the farm they require a visit by a technician to dx a faulty sensor. The technician comes in a very large truck which is basically a shop on wheels and a huge amount time is spent in transport. Now, are the parts available? Did the system dx itself correctly and talk to mother JD prior to the tech visit?
Cheap buildings breath, early NYC schools were designed with windows which opened and heating systems which could keep up with open window heat losses. Tight buildings are sick without huge air handling systems.
Old schools had large windows, sunlight, new one, small windows. It goes on and on.
Dennis L.
But you had also that unpleasant feeling of cold due to the draft, when the ventilation was via windows and without the heat recovery.
Higher efficiency is coupled with higher comfort. The energy costs are high, but quality of life is incomparable with the past.
The last 200 years of the wild population growth and inefficiency is something that we should not appreciate. The narrow and dark houses with bad air were no romance.
The more I watched the video of iPhone factory riots, the more I felt they are fake. The videos are low resolutions and the police are wearing hazmats? Police or the army can easily crush them like stomping on ants. They can also black out the entire thing. Why let the whole world know?
Maybe China doesnt want to supply iphones and other goods to the West any more.
Wow — this just in from a minimum double vaxxed… asking how’s FE doing these days…. he is one of the few people I bother to engage with .. a very level headed person who does not automatically recoil when a non-CNNBBC opinion is voiced.
Former senior finance guy for many years.. shut that down and went entrepreneur 10+ yrs ago…
The Cull seems to be gaining traction — PR Team needs to act. Act Now – before the zeitgeist turns and the mob loses its mind!!! Act Now for f789s sake!! All those people who jacked up their kids on the rat juice are gonna lose their minds.
absolutely agree on most of your points, if not all. especially the last point about immune systems being whacked out and probably in many people, permanently damaged. I also suspect that for some reason, overpopulation, underfunded pensions, etc, Covid has either been used as an excuse or it was planned that way for a mass culling…and the old age folks have been hit the worst (that is, those who are drawing down pensions and not contributing etc).
The sudden heart-related deaths of my parents last year is a good example. When my brother asked about having a post-mortem done, he was told that the hospital was too overwhelmed for that and that in both cases it was a heart attack (probably, but why did they both have heart attacks within 3 months of each other….was it because they both had the same vaccines at the same times?).
If the narrative fails then Ukraine will look like a sideshow compared to what the medical nasties are going to experience.
I feel its getting closer as articles about side effects are now starting to appear in the main lame media; articles that would never have seen the light of day even 6 months ago.
The elephant on the front lawn can be ignored, but the one that comes crashing through the front door not so much.
PR Team has it all under control … they’ll keep the MORE-ONS calm as they are taken from the trance …
That’s great!
The masks are like those “eye covers” they put on horses.
My moreon sister and spouse are encouraging everyone to get the boosters on Facebook.
Good for them. Hope they are successful – more private jets for us!
And we really need to get the numbers up past 6B … my math guy says if we don’t hit 6B then that 30 year BAU Lite extension will be reduced.
norm – please hang out at the school gates with candy and entice those little girls to get boosted will ya
reante – who’s going to break the bad news to Sam Bailey …
1500HP…
https://youtu.be/8xTqP58o1iw
Reject All Vaccines
https://www.redvoicemedia.com/2022/11/dr-mike-yeadon-i-didnt-do-my-homework-im-ashamed-that-i-was-pro-vaccine/ref/8/
It is recent vaccines. Some old ones may be OK.