The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back

The problem is hitting limits in the extraction of fossil fuels

We know that historically, many economies around the world have collapsed. We also know that there is a physics reason why this happens. Growing economies require a growing supply of energy to keep up with a growing population. At some point, the energy supply and other resource needs cannot grow rapidly enough to keep up with population growth. When this happens, economies tend to collapse.

In their book Secular Cycles, researchers Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov found that economies tend go through four distinct phases in each cycle, with each stage lasting for quite a few years:

  1. Growth
  2. Stagflation
  3. Crisis
  4. Inter-cycle

Based on my own analysis, the world economy was in the Growth Stage for much of the time between the Industrial Revolution and 1973. In late 1973, oil prices spiked, and the world was put on notice that the energy supply could not continue rising as rapidly as in the past. Between 1973 and 2018, the world economy was in the Stagflation Stage. Based on current data, the world economy seems to have entered the Crisis Stage about 2018. This is the reason for saying that headwinds are beginning to hold the economy back in the title of this article .

When the Crisis Stage occurs, there are fewer goods and services per capita to go around, so some participants in the world economy must come out behind. Conflict of all kinds becomes more likely. Political leaders, if they happen to discover the predicament the world economy is in, have little interest in making the predicament known to voters, since doing so would likely lead them to lose the next election.

Instead, the way the physics-based self-organizing economic system works is that alternative narratives that frame the situation in a less frightening way gain popularity. Political leaders may not even be aware of how dependent today’s economy is on fossil fuels. Researchers may not be aware that their “scientific” models are misleading because they look at too small a portion of the overall system and make unwarranted assumptions.

In this post, I show evidence that the economy is reaching energy limits. In the last section, I explain how my view differs from the standard narrative, which says that there is almost an unlimited amount of fossil fuels available to burn, if we choose to utilize these fossil fuels. According to this view, humans can prevent climate change by voluntarily moving away from fossil fuels.

The standard narrative proposes a reasonable plan for citizens of parts of the world without adequate fossil fuels (cut back on buying fossil fuels), but without telling citizens what the real problem is. The standard narrative also gives the impression that there is a near-term clean energy alternative. In my opinion, this is wishful thinking for the reasons I describe in Sections [6] and [7]. Section [2] also sheds light on the reasonableness of moving to renewable energy.

[1] The world has been warned, at least twice, that collapse might occur about now.

Back in the 1950s, several physicists, including M. King Hubbert, became interested in the limits that the world was up against. The military became interested in the problem, as well. In 1957, Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy gave a very insightful speech. One thing Admiral Rickover said was, “With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living.” Another thing he said was, “A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.”

Regarding the future, he said,

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account. 

The issue Admiral Rickover is pointing out is that as extraction costs rise, fossil fuels become increasingly unaffordable. If citizens cannot afford food, housing, and other basic goods made with high-cost fossil fuels, those fossil fuels will be left in the ground. If politicians try to pass the high cost of extraction on to consumers, it will cause inflation. Citizens will become unhappy with politicians and will vote them out of office. This is basically our problem today.

A second analysis that pointed to the current time frame for the world hitting fossil fuel limits is given in the 1972 book, The Limits To Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This analysis used computer modeling to look at several alternative future scenarios, considering resources available and population trends. The base scenario showed resource limits in general hitting sometime around 2020. The economy would collapse over a period of years after resource limits were hit.

[2] The Industrial Revolution in England is an example of how an economy changes for the better when fossil fuel energy is added.

Figure 1 shows a chart E. A. Wrigley shows in his book, Energy and the English Industrial Revolution:

Figure 1. Annual energy consumption per head (megajoules) in England and Wales 1561-70 to 1850-9 and in Italy 1861-70. Figure by Wrigley

Wrigley observes that when coal was added to the economy, it was possible to make far more metal tools than had been made in the past. With the use of metal tools instead of wood tools, farmers could be three times as productive. Thus, there didn’t need to be as many farmers, freeing some farmers for other occupations. Also, roads to coal mines were paved, in an era when few roads were paved. These paved roads were beneficial to other businesses and to the economy as a whole.

Another reason for coal to be of interest was because of increased deforestation near cities, as the population grew. This deforestation led to a need to transport firewood over long distances. Coal was more compact, and so easier to transport. Furthermore, the use of coal prevented having to cut down as many trees, helping the environment.

Figure 1 shows that energy from wind and water were only a tiny part of the economy, both before and after coal was added. They did not directly provide heat energy, which was a significant share of what the economy needed at that time.

[3] The period between the end of World War II and 1973 was another period when energy consumption per capita was rising rapidly. We might say the economy then had an “energy tailwind.”

Figure 2 shows that US energy consumption per capita was rising rapidly in the 1949 to 1973 period. Growing oil, coal and natural gas consumption all contributed to the overall rise in fossil fuel use.

Figure 2. Energy consumption by type of energy, on a per capita basis. Energy amounts as provided by US EIA data. Population based on 2022 United Nations population estimates by country.

In fact, BP data (only available from 1965 onward) shows energy consumption per capita rising for most parts of the world between 1965 and 1973. During this period, oil, coal and natural gas consumption per capita were all rising.

Figure 3. Energy consumption per capita from 1965 to 1973 for selected parts of the world based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

A major thing that pushed oil consumption along was its low price (Figure 4). According to BP data, the inflation-adjusted price was only $11.99 per barrel in 1970. In 1971, it averaged $14.30 per barrel. The comparable price today is about $79 per barrel.

Figure 4. World oil production and Brent equivalent price, adjusted for inflation to 2021, based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

The average price for 1973 rose to the equivalent of $19.73 per barrel, which is still incredibly low relative to today’s prices. It is an annual average price, reflecting a low price at the beginning of the year and a much higher price toward the end of the year.

There were multiple issues behind the rise in oil prices, starting at the end of 1973. Part of the problem was the fact that US oil production began to fall in 1971, necessitating the use of more imported oil, year after year. Another issue was that world oil production could not keep up with the high demand, given the low price that oil was selling for. The Office of the Historian of the US writes the following:

By 1973, OPEC had demanded that foreign oil corporations increase prices and cede greater shares of revenue to their local subsidiaries. In April, the Nixon administration announced a new energy strategy to boost domestic production to reduce U.S. vulnerability to oil imports and ease the strain of nationwide fuel shortages. That vulnerability would become overtly clear in the fall of that year.

Without higher oil prices, it would be hard for local producers to make the investments needed to ramp up production. Also, taxes for governments in the areas where the oil was produced were falling too low, given the low prices that oil was selling for on the international market. Indirectly because of these problems, but supposedly also because of support for Israel by certain countries in the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Arab members of OPEC initiated an oil embargo. This embargo cut off exports to the US, Netherlands, Portugal, and South Africa from November 1973 until March 1974. It was at that time that world oil prices rose to a much higher level, and oil consumption per capita began to fall.

One thing that is striking about the period between World War II and 1973 is the huge advances in wages made by both the bottom 90% and the top 10% (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Chart comparing income gains by the top 10% to income gains by the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.

Between 1948 and 1968, inflation-adjusted income of both the bottom 90% and the top 10% increased by roughly 80%. This meant that many people in the bottom 90% could afford to buy cars and their own homes for the first time. Even in the period between 1968 and 1982, inflation-adjusted incomes kept up with inflation, something that low-income earners today have difficulty with. It was not until after about 1982 that wage disparity started to increase.

Most people remember the 1950s and 1960s as a favorable period for ordinary workers. Because of the higher wages of ordinary citizens and growing US manufacturing capabilities, the number of cars registered in the US rose from 25.8 million in 1945 to 75.3 million in 1965. The US initiated the 41,000 mile Interstate Highway System in 1956, so that auto owners would have multilane, limited access roads to travel on.

Electricity was sold in a conservative way, called the Utility Pricing System, which would hopefully assure that the whole system would be properly maintained. Utilities were typically owners of electricity generation units, plus all other local infrastructure, including transmission lines. Each utility would compute a total required rate for all its needs, including enough funds to install new generating capacity, provide fuel, and install and maintain transmission lines. A government regulator would approve the rates, but there was no real competition.

[4] In the period between 1973 and 2018, many changes were to increase energy efficiency and to lower the perceived cost to users. Unfortunately, some of these changes, when taken to the extremes they were taken to later in the period, tended to make the economy brittle and thus more subject to collapse.

Up until 1973, oil was being put to uses for which substitution could easily be made. One of these was electricity generation; another was home heating. An easy change in electricity generation was to build new generating facilities using an alternate fuel (coal, natural gas, or nuclear). Home heating could often be changed to natural gas or electricity.

Also, Japan already had automobiles that were smaller and more fuel efficient than American automobiles. These could be substituted for some of the large cars produced in the US.

Especially with the Reagan and Thatcher administrations starting shortly after 1980, there was more interest in cutting costs in electricity generation. “Competitive rating” instead of utility rating became popular in places where electricity prices were high. Utilities were broken up, and the various parts were encouraged to compete.

Of course, competitive rating, when taken to its extreme, can lead to the neglect of infrastructure. It was recently reported that California’s utility company, Pacific Gas and Electric, now finds that it must raise $50 billion for wildfire prevention, after years of neglecting maintenance on the long distance transmission lines used for hydroelectric generation and other long distance transmission. Now it needs to raise money to bury many of these lines underground.

It has long been known that added complexity can be helpful in working around problems of inadequate energy supply. Complexity involves many things including using more advanced technology and international trade. It involves bigger organizations to take advantage of economies of scale. It tends to require higher education for at least some of its workers.

One major disadvantage of growing complexity is the increasing wage disparity it tends to produce. Wages for less educated workers often fall quite low. Work in whole industries may disappear overseas, leaving workers to start over, in new lines of work, at lower pay scales.

Unfortunately, having many workers at low wages tends to push an economy toward collapse. The big issue is that these workers cannot afford goods like cars and new homes. Their lack of purchasing power tends to hold down commodity prices, such as the price of fossil fuels. Prices don’t rise high enough to justify new investment to raise production, so production slows down and eventually stops.

Another approach that gained popularity starting about 1981 was the increased use of debt and more exotic financial approaches. Interest rates were very high in 1981. Central banks could make monthly payments for goods such as homes and cars more affordable by lowering interest rates. This approach works for a while, but it reaches limits when interest rates fall too low relative to inflation rates. Furthermore, if an economy slows down, a major increase in debt defaults becomes likely, as became clear in 2008. With the high level of debt in the world economy today, the default problem could become even worse in 2023 or 2024 than it was in 2008, if the economy slows again.

[5] Since 2015, oil and natural gas investments have remained at low levels because oil prices have not been high enough to justify drilling in the remaining places.

Figure 6. US world oil prices, adjusted to 2021 US$, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In my opinion, oil companies really need quite high oil prices, probably $120 per barrel or higher, on a consistent basis, to justify drilling in sufficient new locations to ramp up oil production. Since 2014, prices have generally remained far below that level. There was a major drop in oil prices in 2014 and 2015. In response to the lower oil prices, oil and gas companies cut back on investment in “Exploration and Production” (E&P). (Figure 7)

Figure 7. Global Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Investments in chart by Rystad Energy.

After a drop in E&P investments, oil production does not drop immediately. Instead, 2018 was the single highest year of oil production. Production looks likely to drop further because of the continued lack of investment (Figure 8).

Figure 8. Figure 1 from my most recent post. It shows world primary energy consumption per capita based on BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

[6] If we look across the major types of energy supply, we discover that “Wind and Solar” is the only category rising significantly faster than world population. Others tend to be flat or falling, on a per capita basis.

Figure 9. Energy per capita worldwide, for selected types of energy, based on data from BP’s 2022 Statistical Review of World Energy.

In Figure 9, the star performer is the category “Wind + Solar.” The main attraction of wind and solar today is the subsidies they get, and the mandates that require utilities to move away from fossil fuels. Unfortunately, wind and solar really aren’t terribly helpful as far as I can see, except from the point of view of the benefit of the subsidies they provide.

One of the problems with intermittent wind and solar is that they tend to drive nuclear electricity providers out of business because of the favorable rates they receive when wind and solar are allowed to go first, in competitive rating schemes. With this arrangement, the wholesale rates that nuclear providers receive often fall to negative amounts. Nuclear providers cannot close down for short periods with negative rates, so they tend to need subsidies to remain open. Figure 9 shows that the supply of nuclear electricity has been dropping since at least 2001. In fact, of all the energy types shown on Figure 9, nuclear’s production (relative to population) is dropping fastest.

In my opinion, our primary energy concern should be food production and transport. Diesel, made from oil, is the major fuel for agriculture. It will be decades before farming machinery and transport of food can be changed over to electricity, assuming this can be done at all. Until this happens, electricity’s role in getting food to the shelves of grocery stores will be limited.

Solar energy comes primarily in the summer but, unfortunately, in many places, the big need for heat energy is in the winter. People in Europe, with their many wind turbines and solar panels, are worried about possibly freezing in the dark this winter if natural gas supplies prove inadequate. We don’t have batteries for storing solar or wind energy for months on end, so they cannot be counted on for winter heat.

When homeowners put solar panels on their roofs, the electricity they sell to the utility is often “net metered” (credited with the full retail value of electricity that this home would pay). This is a huge subsidy to the owners of the solar panels because the value of the intermittent electricity to the utility is far less than this, probably closer to the cost of the natural gas or other fuel saved.

To make up for the loss of revenue caused by the overly generous compensation to solar panel owners, the utility is forced to raise rates for those without solar panels. Studies show that homeowners with solar panels tend to be wealthier than the renters and others who do not have the opportunity to add these subsidized solar panels. Thus, this is an example of a benefit for rich homeowners being paid for by less wealthy buyers of electricity.

I would also argue that the BP data I used to produce Figure 9 tends to give an overly optimistic view of the value of wind and solar. The approach used indirectly assumes that they fully replace the entire system of dispatchable electricity used today, rather than providing only intermittent electricity. The less generous approach (giving a little less than half as much credit) is used by the International Energy Association and by many researchers.

Furthermore, solar panels tend to pollute ground water when they are disposed of, so they are not very clean. Wind turbines are noisy, take up farmland, and kill bats and birds, so they have serious drawbacks as well.

Wind and solar are made and transported using fossil fuels. They cannot last any longer than today’s fossil fuel industry. In fact, roads and transmission lines require fossil fuels to continue. The whole system is likely to go down at approximately the same time.

It seems to me that the main reason why we hear so much about intermittent wind and solar is because there needs to be a hopeful narrative for politicians to provide to voters, and for educators to provide to students. Otherwise, the situation shown on Figure 9 looks grim. The fact that fossil fuel prices have been spiking in 2022 and regulators are trying to get these prices back down again is testimony to the fact that we are running short of cheap-to-produce fossil fuel energy.

[7] The incorrect narrative provided by mainstream media (MSM) is that climate change is our worst problem. To lessen this problem, citizens need to move quickly away from fossil fuels and transition to renewables. The real narrative is that we are running short of fossil fuels that can be profitably extracted, and renewables are not adequate substitutes. However, this narrative is too worrisome for most people to handle.

I expect most readers will say, your view can’t be right. We don’t read this story in the news. All we hear about is climate change and the need to reduce fossil fuel usage to prevent climate change.

In many ways, the narrative presented by MSM is less frightening to the public than a narrative in which fuels are already being stretched too thin. The MSM narrative sounds like a situation that we can perhaps live with and work around. It sounds like careers that people study for today will be useful in the future. It also sounds like homes, cars and factories built today will be useful in the future.

One major difference in the MSM view, relative to my view, is with respect to the amounts of fossil fuels that can be extracted. The standard narrative says we will extract all the fossil fuels that we have the technology to extract unless we make a concerted effort not to extract these fuels. For this to happen, demand (a favorite word of economists) must keep rising to keep prices high enough for businesses to want to continue extraction from fields plagued by depletion.

History shows that when an economy approaches limits, what tends to happen is that demand tends to fall too low. This happens because the physics of the way the economy works: Wage and wealth disparities tend to spike as energy resources are increasingly stretched thin. In fact, the great wealth of the top 1%, relative to that of the remaining 99%, is a major problem in the world today. When increasing wage and wealth disparity occurs, a growing number of poor workers find themselves with inadequate wages to buy food, homes, cars and other goods made with commodities, including oil.

There are so many of these poor workers that their lack of demand tends to bring down commodity prices without government intervention. If these low wages are not sufficient to hold down commodity prices, politicians will raise interest rates to try to get commodity prices down, so they can be re-elected. It is low fossil fuel prices that will drive fossil fuel providers out of business.

Of course, another part of the MSM narrative is the view that renewables can save the system. I explained in Section [6] why this cannot be the case for wind and solar. I didn’t say much about hydroelectricity, but it is already built out in most of the developed world. Electricity from hydroelectric plants tends to be intermittent, with the greatest supply coming in the spring, when snow melts. Like wind and solar, hydroelectric generation plants are built and repaired using fossil fuels. These facilities, and their transmission lines, will last only until parts break that cannot be repaired.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
This entry was posted in Alternatives to Oil, Energy policy, Financial Implications and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

3,874 Responses to The economy is moving from a tailwind pushing it along to a headwind holding it back

  1. Rodster says:

    Sascha Gerecht @GTSascha
    Finally the Truth comes out @elonmusk

    Robert Malone MD, “Stop these vaccines”

    https://twitter.com/GTSascha/status/1609962354904797184

  2. Today is the last day of this thread and I will just say this – 2023 will be better than 2022, although I can’t say the same for 2024 being better than 2023.

  3. Mirror on the wall says:

    Energy price rises related to the UKR war have pushed UK food inflation to record levels. Factory production has contracted for five straight months. Discretionary spending is down. And Brexit continues to hinder exports.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/04/record-133-uk-food-inflation-raises-fears-of-another-difficult-year

    Record 13.3% UK food inflation raises fears of ‘another difficult year’

    British Retail Consortium figures come amid concern over economy and rising cost of energy bills

    UK food price rises soared to a record rate in December, figures show, as retail industry bosses warned that high inflation would continue in 2023 amid the fallout from surging energy bills.

    Annual food inflation jumped to 13.3% in December, up from 12.4% in November, according to the latest monthly report from trade body the British Retail Consortium (BRC) and the data firm Nielsen. The BRC said this was the highest monthly rate since it began collecting data in 2005.

    Highlighting the pressure on households during the festive shopping season, the industry snapshot showed the price of many essential foods rose sharply as the reverberations from Russia’s war in Ukraine continued to drive up energy costs.

    The BRC said high prices for animal feed, fertiliser and energy fed into higher food prices on supermarket shelves, while warning that consumers would probably face further increases in 2023.

    “It was a challenging Christmas for many households across the UK,” said the BRC’s chief executive, Helen Dickinson. “2023 will be another difficult year for consumers and businesses as inflation shows no immediate signs of waning.”

    The figures came as concerns grew about the strength of the British economy, with the headline inflation rate at its highest level since the early 1980s, driven by soaring gas and electricity bills. Manufacturers suffered a further downturn in activity in December, with production, new orders and employment all in decline.

    The S&P Global/Cips UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ Index fell to a 31-month low of 45.3 in December, down from 46.5 in November, indicating a fifth successive month of contraction in UK factory output.

    Domestic and overseas demand remained lacklustre as the industry suffered a weak end to 2022, with companies facing rising costs, increasing market volatility and problems related to Brexit for firms with EU-based customers.

    John Glen, the chief economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, said: “New orders dropped at one of the fastest rates in over a decade as overseas customers were put off by Brexit customs requirements pushing up costs and delays and domestic orders were affected by the general pressure from rising prices.”

    As the soaring costs fed through to consumers, households sharply cut back on spending in recent months. Figures from Barclaycard show retail sales fell overall in 2022, while high street footfall slumped last week at a time when consumers would usually be hitting the shops for the Boxing Day sales.

    According to the BRC figures for December, when households usually stock up on Christmas food and drink, the inflation rate for fresh produce accelerated to a new record of 15% in December, up from 14.3% a month earlier.

  4. Mrs S says:

    Gail I hope you don’t mind me posting this. So few people were brave during lockdown, so I feel like we should support those who actually tried to stand up to the madness.

    This couple have been bankrupted. They are being threatened with prison for non payment of fines for opening their cafe during lockdown. They have two young kids.

    All their attempts at crowdfunding have been blocked. Paypal have also blocked donations, but you can donate by a credit card.

    If you can spare anything I’m sure they would be grateful. Also if you frequent other sites, please re-post.

    https://dailysceptic.org/2023/01/05/we-lost-our-cafe-and-got-fined-42000-because-we-refused-to-comply-with-covid-restrictions-can-you-help/

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Wow… war is peace … everything is fake.

    Anti-vaccine influencers have been fomenting fear about a supposed rise in COVID-shot-induced athletic deaths for a while. Fact-checkers have repeatedly assessed these claims and found them to be without merit. Jonathan Drezner, a sports-medicine physician who studies sudden deaths in athletes, told media outlets last year that he was “not aware of any COVID-19 vaccine-related athletic death.”

    The National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research, which systematically tracks sports-related fatalities, identified 13 medical deaths during football-related activities in 2021 among players participating at all levels of competition, eight of which were caused by cardiac arrest. The same researchers had found 14 medical deaths two years earlier, 10 of which were heart-related. These incidents remain tragic and scarce.

    https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2023/01/damar-hamlin-cardiac-arrest-covid-anti-vaccine-heart-theories/672644/

  6. Apparently Dennis L. did not understand my reply to Mrs.S.

    She earlier talked about how poor her husband was during late 1960s in England. I don’t remember what clips she used but here are the typical clips from that era

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMCsRd3Rfgg

    1975

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sa1GkWR6daU

    What I am saying is that is how the world should have lived, and it is wrong that those who are not that productive to enjoy a better life ; they should have lived in abject penury and want, so the resources could be used for advancing civilization.

  7. Jan says:

    Think humans exploit plants like they exploit fossiles and minerals? You are miles out! Plants solve the problems of humans and offer win-win solutions.

    Humans eradicate all competitors of soy in the Amazonas. Seduced by a bean that establishes a love relation.

    It is soya that subdues the Earth!

    Think you are a slave of Kill Bill and the Elders of WEF – or at least of your tiny cat that you buy all the gourmet cans for? False! You are a slave of crop and vegetables that offer you nutriciants and best health to develop a loyal following!

    It is science! Don’t say, it’s German science…

    Anthropogenic Seed Dispersal: Rethinking the Origins of Plant Domestication

    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1360138520300224

    • Tim Groves says:

      As someone who slaves annually in the rice fields, plowing and fertilizing, turning the field into mud, planting the seedlings at just the right depth and just the right density and just the right distance apart, removing any weeds that might compete with them, then adjusting the water level day after day, draining the field to let them strengthen their roots after six weeks, then another broadcasting of fertilizer to encourage them to produce as many seeds as possible, I resemble these remarks.

      I thought I was working for the Pharaoh, but all the time I was working for the rice plants.

    • Interesting:

      Domestication was/is a natural response of plants to heavy seed predation by humans. Many plants in the wild have formed a similar seed dispersal–based mutualism with animals as a response to herbivory.

      Rather than viewing domestication as an intentional human-driven process, domestication is best modeled as a natural evolutionary response to herbivory. Early domestication traits gave plants a selective advantage through the recruitment of humans as seed dispersers.

      Many of the progenitors of our modern domesticated crops relied on animals for seed dispersal. The natural dispersal processes of many of these crop progenitors were weakened by megafaunal extinctions.

  8. ivanislav says:

    There have been some **revolutionary** developments in the protein design space, published in the last month and a half. I wasn’t overly concerned about virulent disease, but now I am, and I have the background to understand the technology and immediate implications. The tools make it only a matter of time before someone creates aiborne rabies or HIV or the like.

    Something like that would have been very difficult to do up until now, perhaps a handful of people on the planet could do it. Now it’s going to be possible, literally, for college undergraduates to create this.

    And don’t get too excited about therapies, as they will take longer to develop. Likewise, bio-defense is much more difficult than offense.

    • gpdawson2016 says:

      ….no one will use a weapon that is going to kill themself….at least not more than once.

    • Dennis L. says:

      ivan,

      Could you supply links to some of the literature?

      Thanks,

      Dennis L.

    • Your post is definitely worrying. The likelihood that much worse bioweapons will be released, perhaps by one or two individuals acting alone, is a real issue. And now we know that the mRNA technology isn’t a solution for combating them. In fact, as you say, “And don’t get too excited about therapies, as they will take longer to develop. Likewise, bio-defense is much more difficult than offense.”

      Are there any particular articles you find of interest in regard to the revolutionary developments? I am sure I would not understand them, but there may be other commenters who do.

    • Rodster says:

      This is why I typically agree with Fast. Humans are f789ing stoopid creatures. They always try and find ways to OFF others or themselves. That’s why I say, just get it over with, push the nuke buttons.

      • lol

        swearing by numbers—and now a surplus of vowels rodster

        getting to look very familiar

        • How about finding something worthwhile to comment on, instead of criticizing other people’s comments?

          • Gail—Ive tried

            Have you read comments made to me?

            my comments carry no faux obscenities, no sexual innuendo, nothing about pe dophilia, nothing about inflatable se x dolls.

            if someone disagrees with me—i do not cross reference back to the above.

            i don’t use the word st upid, even though i can spell it.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Now this is really really funny – MORE=ONS in action https://t.me/leaklive/11241

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Joe Rogan Sends an EPIC Wake Up Call to the Covidians

    “The idea that you wouldn’t be upset that you were duped into injecting actual poison when you were thinking that this was somehow going to save people and save the world is so insane!”

    https://rumble.com/v23y5kg–joe-rogan-sends-an-epic-wake-up-call-to-the-covidians.html

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    It’s … doomie time again

    https://t.me/leaklive/11238

    https://t.me/leaklive/11239

    WTF??? CTG >>>>> Watch this https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/61743

    • Student says:

      Last one it depends on the speed of the shutter of the camera.
      Like with photos.
      If the shutter is too slow it misses some frames.
      The ball went so quick that the shutter missed the frame in between the two players.
      I worked as photographer when I attended first years of University.

    • CTG says:

      FE; in my reality, I am seeing too many “impossible things” especially when you become very observant…. nothing that logic or science can explain…

  12. Mirror on the wall says:

    LOL William beat up Harry in the kitchen for marrying Megs. Britain is certainly getting value for money in this soap opera. The ‘tell all’ book is out next week, and already heading Amazon charts.

    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/jan/04/prince-harry-william-physical-attack-2019-meghan-spare-book

    > Prince Harry details physical attack by brother William in new book

    Exclusive: Harry writes in new autobiography Spare that William ‘knocked me to the floor’ during confrontation in London in 2019

    …. The confrontation escalated, Harry writes, until William “grabbed me by the collar, ripping my necklace, and knocked me to the floor”.

    The extraordinary scene, which Harry says resulted in visible injury to his back, is one of many in Spare, which will be published worldwide next week and is likely to spark a serious furore for the British royal family.

  13. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    Hank Aaron got jabbed 2 years ago.

    “On January 5, 2021, Aaron publicly received a COVID-19 vaccination with the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine at the Morehouse School of Medicine at Atlanta, Georgia. He and several other African American public figures, including activist Joe Beasley, Andrew Young, and Louis Sullivan did so to demonstrate the safety of the vaccine and encourage other black Americans to do the same.
    Aaron died in his sleep in his Atlanta residence on January 22 at the age of 86. The manner of death was listed as natural causes.”

    Hank Aaron Day will forever be January 22.

    let us honor him then.

    • drb753 says:

      Hank Aaron – Charles Darwin Day.

    • He received the most hate mail in the history of the world

      yet he was defiant

      Well, in some sense we can say that he committed suicide, like Tchaikovsky, whose liaison with nephew of the Czar about to be revealed, drank a cholera-laced water during an epidemic.

  14. banned says:

    WaPo

    “The inevitable, grotesque effort to blame vaccines for Damar …”

    Forbidden subject

    Dont want to be a right wing extremist? OK then we decide when death causes are not to be discussed and when to riot over them. We tell you when to be outraged and for what reason. Now it is appropriate to be very sad but not at all appropriate to be outraged. This was a unfortunate accident. Any discussion to the contrary and its off to the leper colony for you.

    Damar seems like a real nice guy. If there was injustice involved with his severe injury shouldn’t we discuss it? If we truly feel his injury regrettable doesn’t justice warrant a investgation not forbidding discussion? Yes its horrible when a nice young person like Damar or Casey Hodgkinson gets severely injured. Yes its horribly sad. If there is even a possibility that the injections played a role does not justice demand that it be discussed? That the injections cause heart failure in some percentage of individuals is not debatable. Whats grotesque is a press forbidding discussion of subjects by using a political paintbrush. Oh there is no “effort” to blame injections for this. Its apparant. Everyone knows. The lame ass alternative explanation is farfetched to say the least. What is grotesque is the crocadile tears of the pundits. They dishonor this man. They channel emotion into an allowed form and that is the foundation of abusive individuals and apparently institutions.

    You see if you or a loved one suffers a injection injury you are not allowed to be angry or outraged. You do want whats left of your life dont you? Thought so. So this is a unfortunate accident. Its a unfortunate accident because injecting DOD contract substances is not a subject to be debated. Only mentally ill right wing extremists question injecting DOD contract substances. Now do you feel angry? Do you feel outraged? No? Ah you are sane. You are allowed to feel sad. You do! I knew you radiated mental health! If you experienced the feelings of a victim you would be crazy. Are you not lucky we are here to instruct you how to feel and when!

    Defining when its appropriate to feel the feelings of a victim is is the exact modus operandi of psychopath manipulators committing serious crimes involving abuse. You see she is crazy. Has these wild ideas. Dont you know I love you honey! Oh so sorry she fell down the stairs. again. injected. again. Your not crazy are you?

    • drb753 says:

      Black Lives Matter is soooo 2020. Now the orders from above are Black Lives Don’t Matter. It’s like long skirts and short skirts.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    Doctor battles 5 hours to save man whose heart stopped twice on flight

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3205596/doctor-battles-5-hours-save-man-whose-heart-stopped-twice-flight?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

    Wanna bet he was vaxxed… should be fed to the pigs

    • Rodster says:

      “should be fed to the pigs”

      Nah, stuff him inside the toilet and flush. Guaranteed to not arrive in one piece before hitting the ground. 🤓

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Who knows if this is real… but I hope it is …we need to hit that 6B number to complete the Cull

    20,000 Hongkongers per day getting jabs, with experts citing outbreak concerns
    Rise in daily vaccine uptake marks sharp increase from 2,000 recorded early last month, with jump beginning when Hong Kong announced Covid policy rollback.

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3205608/20000-hongkongers-receive-covid-jabs-each-day-experts-citing-public-concerns-over-possible-case-rise?module=lead_hero_story&pgtype=homepage

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Nothing in 9 days?

    are they just gonna keep her on ice right through UEP so that there is no funeral and no discussion of how you die walking your dogs?

    Maybe build a hospital and keep Damar Celine and the other big names there until the end… why not just feed them to the pigs instead?

    https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Princess+Bajrakitiyabha&iar=news&ia=news

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Shortly thereafter, Ontario stopped reporting these statistics. The reporting of deaths by vaccination status has been discontinues across all Canadian provinces in July. Yet, in early June of 2022, Canada’s Health Minister pronounced that “in the five first months of this year [2022] we had as many [Covid] deaths and hospitalizations as in the entire year of 2021”:

    All you can get now is the sound bites from the mainstream media telling you the “truth” of the day you should believe. Edward Dowd declared a month ago his intent to analyse excess mortality data for Canada and to publish it at his “Excess Mortality Project” web site, like he did for European countries, USA, Australia. But I see that, in Canada, he’s finally hit a brick wall, as no such report ever materialized, for obvious reasons.

    And thus, the Covid-19 history books stopped being written, in Canada, to fulfill the “1984” motto: “Every record has been destroyed or falsified, every book rewritten, every picture has been repainted, every statue and street building has been renamed, every date has been altered. And the process is continuing day by day and minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Party is always right.”

    https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/canada-juking-covid-pundemuck

    https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1494,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2ad03321-15e9-4c65-930f-0ab66b3f1b41_747x560.png

    • Xabier says:

      The criminal Planners will not be ‘on the wrong side of history’ as many like to say.

      They will simply write the official history……

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    Now why would they do this?

    As scientists and mainstream media sounded the alarm this week about a new COVID-19 variant sweeping through the Northeast, the author of an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) suggested COVID-19 vaccines could be fueling new variants.

    In her Jan. 1 opinion piece, Allysia Finley — a member of WSJ’s editorial board — cited new research suggesting the virus appears to be evolving in ways that “evade immunity.”

    Finley also pointed to research showing people who received COVID-19 boosters are more susceptible to infection than people who received the primary series but were not boosted.

    Meanwhile, public health officials and scientists continue to call for global mass vaccination against COVID-19.

    Since the COVID-19 Omicron variant emerged in November 2021, its descendants have been predominant. The latest Omicron variant, XBB.1.5, evolved from the XBB variant — itself a fusion of two Omicron subvariants — found in at least 70 countries.

    https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/wall-street-journal-covid-new-variants

    • JMS says:

      To me it’s perfectly clear now that this “viral mutation” thing is the gift that keeps on giving, initially serving to support the fear campaign, and now as perfect cover up to the damage caused by the injections.
      But what do I know? I can’t even spell siontist.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s filling up the hospitals with the help of VAIDS… which feeds into More Boosters …

        It’s like watching top notch pairs figure skating … the coordination and synchronization is incredible.

        • JMS says:

          About VAIDS completely agree.
          As for the Marek-Bossche theory, it seems to me mere spin. But what do i know? I can barely spell viruliegy.

  20. Mirror on the wall says:

    Britain is now completely incapable of producing credible leadership. It would have been interesting to have seen the British 300 years ago. Whoever they were, they are clearly long gone.

    A few in Britain still have enough of a functioning brain to get an inkling of what is going on here. Britain is clearly finished as a significant world power, and quite possibly as a society.

    “This is all thoroughly depressing. Not only do our leaders show no signs of getting a grip on the immediate problems that confront us, they clearly have no broader vision for the future, either…. We stand among the rubble of so many failed elite orthodoxies, and yet our leaders are just staying the course, while mumbling something about maths.”

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2023/01/04/our-empty-pm/

    > Our empty PM

    The political class is devoid of vision and wedded to failed orthodoxies.

    Many people are slamming UK prime minister Rishi Sunak today for failing to step up to the scale of the crises facing the country. Following Sunak’s first big speech of the year, in which among other announcements he said young people should study maths up to age 18, the commentariat have all been trotting out some version of the same line. ‘The NHS is falling apart, the railways are shut down by strikes, and you’re offering us double maths?’, they chuckle, seemingly unaware that everyone they know has already made that joke.

    On one level, they’ve got a point. Sunak’s new five-point pledge – to halve inflation, grow the economy, shrink the national debt, cut NHS waiting lists and stop the Channel crossings – was light on the details. When asked what specifically he would do with the health service or the economy, he largely gestured to money already pledged and tinkering schemes that had already been announced. None of which is commensurate with the lockdown- and war-stoked clusterfuck we find ourselves in – nor the chronic economic problems that Covid and Ukraine brought to the surface.

    But the problems with the speech didn’t end there. After all, this was trailed as Sunak’s Big Vision Speech, a phrase which usually suggests the person delivering it doesn’t have much vision at all. So it is with Sunak. With the Tory Party trailing Labour by 20 points, we were told we’d get a taste of the PM’s ‘ambition’ for the country – something to resuscitate his electoral prospects. What we got – on top of the maths thing – was warm words about family, enterprise and world-class education. Motherhood and apple pie weren’t explicitly mentioned, but I guess we’ll have to wait for the manifesto.

    Sunak likes to talk about delivery. But what it is he wants to deliver – beyond his five helpful pledges – is not at all clear. What sort of society does he want to carve out? What principles guide him? What’s his ideology? I don’t think he knows. He just dispenses airy platitudes, focus-grouped to within an inch of meaninglessness, like one of those talking greetings cards. We must ‘strive for excellence’, we must ‘build a better future’… No one short of a psychopath would oppose any of this.

    In the Q&A, Gary Gibbon from Channel 4 News surprised the handfuls of bored viewers at home by actually asking a good question. He mentioned Italy, a nation that has routinely been taken over by technocrats in times of crisis in recent years. Is Rishi our technocrat? Our Monti? Our Draghi? Sunak dodged the question, and not even particularly well, before returning to his five People’s Priorities, desperate to click back into his practised, creepily Blair-esque schtick. Which pretty much answered Gibbon’s question anyway.

    This is all thoroughly depressing. Not only do our leaders show no signs of getting a grip on the immediate problems that confront us, they clearly have no broader vision for the future, either. The same goes for Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, which earlier this week was talking up its plans to ‘radically overhaul’ jobcentres, so that local authorities are more in charge of them, or something. Perhaps that’s a sensible idea. But it’s hardly the stuff history books are written about, is it? Labour and the Tories are once again dancing on the head of a pin.

    What’s more, both parties appear to be wedded to the same old elite groupthink, even as the disastrous consequences of that groupthink become clearer by the day. For one thing, you would have thought that a leader interested in building a more prosperous economy, out of the mire of this awful energy crisis, would have something to say about cheap and reliable energy. Instead, we got some murmurings from Sunak about how innovation will smooth our path to Net Zero. Similarly, Starmer’s ‘big idea’ from his party-conference speech last year is a nationally owned renewables firm.

    There are many in the media who have welcomed this return to ‘boring’ politics, to managerial ‘competence’ after that Brexity, populist blip. But I fear with Sunak and Starmer we are about to find out, once again, that technocratic rule is not only deathly and undemocratic, but also particularly disastrous in difficult times. The alleged experts have a habit of deepening rather than resolving the crises we face. Those distant from the people and deprived of any vision can so easily make matters worse – by sticking to the same received wisdom, moving from one five-point plan to another, without ever questioning how we got here, let alone dreaming of where we might want to go next.

    We stand among the rubble of so many failed elite orthodoxies, and yet our leaders are just staying the course, while mumbling something about maths. Now more than ever, we need to put big ideas back at the centre of political life.

    • Tim Groves says:

      I blame it on too much TV!

      But then again, how much is too much?

    • drb753 says:

      Draghi and Monti have been lethal to Italy. They were put in place to gradually dismantle the economy. when you see something like that, it is time to run.

    • Well,some guy came here and said he will crush the Scottish independence movement with his bare hands

      Since he seems to have an idea , he should be the next PM.

  21. Jan says:

    Found a post on another blog concerning autism, that seems worth to share (auto translated):

    As an autistic myself, I was able to lead a very fulfilling life. Now retired and already 75, I don’t lack contacts at all because, as always, I can do everything myself as far as possible.
    The advantages of an autistic person outweigh because he is hardly or not at all inferior to a herd instinct. Therefore, it seems to be “untouchable” for many, but I can live with it very well. That autistic people can concentrate extremely well and find solutions that do not bring others together in the professional environment if this allows them to be really creative has advantages that the normal person does not have.
    Let’s be happy if the number of autistic people increases , which makes it possible for a wide non-conformist spectrum of humanity to be preserved or to arise again. That this is not desirable for the autocrats and totalitarians is self-evident.

    • My son who is autistic doesn’t find it to be a huge problem either. He is a computer programmer, who can work from home. He doesn’t drive, but some autistic people drive.

      There is a huge difference in autistic people. They don’t necessarily notice the differences that other people notice in them.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        That’s a good thing… they don’t have to endure the frustration of having to deal with the ocean of MORE-ONS …

        • JMS says:

          LOL, so true.
          I’m not autistic, but funnily enough, the last Empathy test I took online, two minutes ago, diagnosed me with a “lack of empathy common in people with Autism or Asperger’s Syndrome”.
          Which for me just means that psychology as a science still has a long long way to go.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Fast Eddy would have Aspergers… HE doesn’t give a f789 about much but when HE does HE focuses completely

            HE is also quite uncomfortable when surrounded by MORE-ONS so He doesn’t go out much

      • Jan says:

        I sympethise with that. It’s a feature not a bug! Do good work instead of hysteric socializing. Someone has to think logically! It’s nice to have a partner and some close friends, though, wish the best! Or a dog like Jack London.

  22. Mirror on the wall says:

    Biden is a complete lunatic and his brain is obviously completely gone.

    The unwillingness of the West to address the obvious implies that the same is more or less true of the rest of society too.

    USA does not stand a chance in the real world, as it is about to find out.

    • Based on this set of second by second photos and explanation of what is happening, it makes it hard to believe that Damar Hamlin’s injury was simply caused by a hit to the heart.

  23. Fast Eddy says:

    “The Blood is On Their Hands”William Thompson, CDC, was ordered to destroy all evidence linking vaccines to autism

    Dr. Brian Hooker;
    The CDC had a strong significant signal that vaccines caused autism in African Americans in particular and children that had been diagnosed with regressive autism. When William Thompson presented the evidence he was ordered to destroy it all.

    They have caused over 200,000 cases of autism since they knew.

    https://www.vaccine101.ca/post/cdc-whistleblower-dr-william-thompson

    WATCH HERE (https://rumble.com/v1tf83y-full-episode-55-children-and-the-crisis-of-chronic-disease.html)
    @childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk

  24. Fast Eddy says:

    All-Cause Excess Deaths are up 1,314% in the past 6 Months compared to 2020 & 731% compared to 2021

    Latest update, published 8th November, covers deaths registered up to 28th October 2022.
    That update has been revealing for quite some time that England and Wales have been recording a significant number of Excess Deaths on a weekly basis. So long in fact that you would need to go back to the middle of April to recall a time when deaths were below the 5-year average.

    READ MORE (https://expose-news.com/2022/11/13/excess-deaths-14x-higher-in-2022-than-2020/)
    @childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk

    • Higher deaths are expected in the winter than in the summer. This analysis looks at a particular time of year–more or less summer, when cold and flu deaths are expected to low– and says that there are a lot more excess deaths in the summer of 2022 than in the corresponding periods of 2020 or 2021.

  25. Fast Eddy says:

    Women’s Reproductive Cancers are Rising Dramatically; We Have A Problem

    Turbo Cancers; It gets worse after the 2nd or 3rd shot. Stable cancers become turbo cancers, and develop to stage 4 quickly and spread rapidly around the body

    As the shots rolled out, and they opened up to younger age groups that age of cancer kept going down

    We’re now seeing younger and younger women with cancers I’ve never seen before and in much higher rates

    It gets worse after the 2nd or 3rd shot. Stable cancers become turbo cancers, and develop to stage 4 quickly and spread rapidly around the body
    Dr. Ryan Cole

    Watch the interview here (https://rumble.com/v14u78z-speak-the-truth-in-love-an-interview-with-dr-ryan-cole.html)

  26. Fast Eddy says:

    Is UEP gonna happen or is BAU going to implode first (and ROF)

    While the initial failure makes headlines, the greater danger lies ahead in the form of contagion. Capital markets are densely connected. Banks lend to hedge funds. Hedge funds speculate in markets for stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities both directly and in derivative form.

    Money market funds buy government debt. Banks guarantee some instruments held by those funds. Primary dealers (big banks) underwrite government debt issues but finance those activities in repo markets where the purchased securities are pledged for more cash to buy more securities in long chains of rehypothecated collateral.

    You get the point. The linkages go on and on.

    The Federal Reserve has printed $6 trillion as part of its monetary base (M0). But the total notional value of the derivatives of all banks in the world is estimated at $1 quadrillion. For those unfamiliar, $1 quadrillion = $1,000 trillion. This means the total value of derivatives is 167 times all of the money printed by the Fed.

    And the Fed money supply is itself leveraged on a small sliver of only $60 billion of capital. So, the Fed’s balance sheet is leveraged 100-to-1, and the derivatives market is leveraged 167-to-1 to the Fed money supply, which means the derivatives market is leveraged 16,700-to-1 in terms of Fed capital.

    Nervous yet?

    https://dailyreckoning.com/on-the-cusp-of-a-global-liquidity-crisis/

    • I am afraid that Jim Rickards may be right. The world is likely on the edge of a liquidity crisis, as in 2008.

    • Student says:

      It is not possible to open the link here in Italy… I tried with two devices.

    • Late to the Party says:

      In this video by Jim Rickards he talks about the debt to GDP ratio and says anything above 90 percent is way too much. He talks about the supply chain and says “The supply chain IS the economy” and talks about how it will fail.

      Then starting at 13:00 he talks about “supply chain 2.0 ” which will be an alliance of countries with “liberal democratic principles” and “good concern for humanitarian values” (chuckle) who will trade together but it won’t include China. He says China and the US will

      • Late to the Party says:

        (Oops, I’m not sure what I did to cut off my post)
        continuing
        Us and China will go through a nasty divorce and China will set up their own trade group.

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    The incident during one of the world’s most televised sports events naturally gained lots of traction in the national and international media and prompted an outpouring of prayers on social media platforms.

    Some observers, including Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk, pointed out the fact that Hamlin is just one of many athletes experiencing heart attacks on the field, tweeting, “This is a tragic and all too familiar sight right now: Athletes dropping suddenly.”

    For that correct observation, Kirk got blasted by the mainstream media — see this Washington Post report — for promoting an anti-vaccine agenda for “political reasons” and without medical “evidence,” even though Kirk did not mention vaccines in his tweet.

    https://thenewamerican.com/nfls-damar-hamlin-suffers-cardiac-arrest-on-field/

    Hilarious — he doesn’t even mention the vax…

    This reminds of how during some revolutions (Russia.. Hong Kong) … the act of holding up a blank piece of paper — got you arrested

    • Lastcall says:

      “Most likely, suggested the physician, Hamlin had a so-called “R-on-T phenomenon,” an uncommon type of lethal arrhythmia. According to Cardillo, Hamlin got hit at an unfortunate moment right when his heart was repolarizing itself, and that triggered ventricular arrhythmia, an abnormal heart rhythm that affects the lower chambers of the heart responsible for pumping blood.”

      “As a physician I believe Damar Hamlin was likely suffering from commotio cordis where a blow to the chest at a precise moment in the electrical cycle stops the heart,” adding, “Those trying to tie this to vaccine status to project their unscientific beliefs are terrible, horrible people.”

      This reminds me of the furore evident when the Cath Ch lost control of the narrative claimng that the earth was the centre of the universe; the tortured logic trying to cover the simple truth.

      An orchestrated litany of lies is not easy to keep alive, as aren’t the injected human guinea pigs.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Fast Eddy hits norm much harder than that on a daily basis – and norm is 96 years old … and doesn’t have a heart attack….

        • Lastcall says:

          Most of your tackles have been over his head so he has gotten off lightly.
          You have to aim lower, be simpler, go slower.
          Then he may register the impact.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            norm where are you — roll your arse our of your lair and come down here to take your morning whipping

      • banned says:

        Commitio cortis occurs in young boys when their musculature is not developed enough to protect the heart. Does that describe a NFL football player. To propose this implausible explanation and to censor discussions of injection culpability dishonors Damar in the strongest possible way. Can we even consider that Damar is a victim not a unfortunate accident? Not if you dont want to go off to the leper colony.

        • Tsubion says:

          Where can I book myself into the leper colony? I like to get ahead of the crowd since I’m allergic to queueing.

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Japan, where the central bank has kept interest rates at zero or negative for decades, might be the world’s most acutely vulnerable country. In addition to ultra-low rates, the Bank of Japan has also engaged in yield curve control, capping five-year and ten-year bonds at around zero. Given the increase in real interest rates around the world, the yen’s sharp depreciation, and high inflationary pressures, Japan may finally exit its near-zero era.

    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/looming-financial-crisis-2023-rising-interest-rates-by-kenneth-rogoff-2023-01

    Would love to see that bubble blow up…

    • Japan has been borrowing to prop up the economy for an awfully long time. It is hard to see how it could come out well in any financial crisis.

    • moss says:

      Facile article, with all due respect Prof Rogoff

      Particularly in the case of Japan, the BoJ has bought up almost all of the yen bonds being issued. After all, imagine the 2022 accounting losses on the 30yr JGB
      kshitij.com/images/graph-gallery/bond/jpysin00_files/Yen%20Yields_5627_image002.gif
      but as they say in the classics: they can just CtrlP

      the unmentionable elephant is the carry trade, which didn’t garner a syllable in the story. Overseas entities borrowing JPY for their speculations, nefarious and otherwise, at next to nothing and then collateral shrinks, margin calls, forced sales, reducing leverage and having to buy JPY in a tight market
      everyone assumes the JPY will collapse and wipe out liabilities. Good luck with that.
      Once the JPY outflow into other currencies ceases, the unwind squeeze could send it through the roof

      No one knows the future

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    Finally .. I found some bad news…

    The Looming Financial Contagion

    With inflation on the rise and the era of ultra-low interest rates over, financial markets will face a huge stress test in 2023. While banking systems are more robust than they were in 2008, a real-estate slump could severely affect heavily leveraged private-equity firms, producing a systemic crisis.

    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/looming-financial-crisis-2023-rising-interest-rates-by-kenneth-rogoff-2023-01

  30. Student says:

    (Israel National News)

    ”COVID vaccines: 28% of Americans polled blame vaccine for death of someone they know.
    Results suggest sudden death disproportionately affects the young.”

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/365352

  31. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    It’s BACKl…
    As COVID turns 3, experts worry where the next pandemic will come from – and if we’ll be ready Karen Weintraub, USA TODAYWed, January 4, 2023 at 12:28 PM EST
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-turns-3-experts-worry-100004492.html
    For years, public health experts warned of the possibility of an illness spreading across the globe and killing millions. After all, it had happened before.
    Measures were in place around the world to spot early signs of a never-before-seen bug with dangerous potential.
    That’s why on Dec. 31, 2019, China notified the World Health Organization that a novel pathogen was circulating in Wuhan, the most populous city in central China. A day later, in that city of 12 million, a wet market selling live animals was shuttered because of fears it was the source of the virus that would later be named SARS-CoV2
    Three years later, the risk of a deadly pathogen spreading around the world remains.
    COVID-19 has killed more than 6.6 million people worldwide, other pandemics have been more lethal. The 1918 flu is estimated to have cost 50 million lives across the globe, and in the 14th century, the Black Death killed 30% to 60% of all Europeans in just four years.
    Public health and national defense experts worry the next pandemic will come at an even higher price than this one. And they say the nation needs to be ready.
    “It’s incumbent on the United States and other countries to be prepared for whatever comes from biology, whether it’s from nature or from engineering or a laboratory accident,” said Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health.
    The next pandemic could be worse
    Gostin sees nature as the most likely source of the next pandemic. A highly lethal strain of bird or swine flu could mutate naturally to become contagious to humans. That scenario kept health experts like Gostin awake at night long before COVID-19.
    But other causes are possible.
    “We have a whole host of threats from lab leaks to bioterror to bioweapons to naturally occurring zoonotic spillovers,” said Gostin, author of the 2021 book “Global Health Security: A Blueprint for the Future.”
    “All of that leads to quite a high probability that we’re going to have more frequent pandemic-like threats and we need to take them seriously as a national security threat.”
    Really long read..much more…to the article

    FE and Company will have plenty to crow about in the (few) years ahead!
    Our COVID World LOL

    I got the double shot rat juice and I feel fine!

    • Politicians keep hoping there will be a new virus that they can somehow use to their advantage. Whether or not that has anything at all to do with preventing the spread of the disease is another thing.

      • Student says:

        Politicians keep hoping for that, virologists keep hoping for that (no one has never considered them before and they don’t want to go back in the dark and lose money for their labs and researches), journalists want to please authorities and scare people with great titles and have a great stage, pharmaceutical Companies keep hoping all the above, financial speculators keep hoping to have good stocks on which make easy money in a terrible period…
        It is a perfect vicious cycle.
        It seems a some tragic episode of history were all variables of the equation fuel for destruction and self-destruction.
        Maybe it is also the system that it is balancing to self-reduce itself, evil people just help that.
        It is a tragedy.

        • Tsubion says:

          “Evil people” perform a necessary antagonist function in the overall self-organising system? I certainly see it that way.

    • Withnail says:

      Energy and food shortages are a far greater threat than either this or CC.

    • Rodster says:

      If you listen to his interview with Joe Rogan, you quickly come to the conclusion that he is a corporate shill. He’s as much a doctor as Tony Fauci, both are paid to lie.

  32. Fast Eddy says:

    Tommy delivers a mediocre SADS… never heard of this guy… who cares…

    “And we, the fellow journalists have no idea why and won’t even link or question it…

    https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2023/01/02/journalist-and-irish-times-contributor-brian-hutton-dies-suddenly/

    Journalist and Irish Times contributor Brian Hutton dies suddenly
    Hutton wrote extensively as a journalist and was a founding co-director of an independent radio production company

    • Rodster says:

      Yup, no mention whether he took the jab or not. Since everyone loves to look the other way and say it wasn’t the rat juice, i’m going with the opposite approach. I’m going to say he took it, who cares he’s no longer around to prove me wrong. Yeah, he died from the rat juice.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        So I’ve gone through all my Telegram feeds and SS… and that’s the best I can find …

        This is a terrible start to my Thursday…. I’m crashing here…

        • Tsubion says:

          It’s bad isn’t it… when that UEP doubt starts to creep in. You’ll be a complete wreck when you find out none of it was true. Just greed at the end of a cycle is all with the predictable levels of collateral damage as is expected in this business (the snake oil biz that is). Mop up, move onto the next grift. Rinse, repeat, squeeze. Whatever it takes to suck the last drop of blood out of the host.

      • Kim says:

        Like when there is some assault or murder and they don’t mention the race of the perp.

        It doesn’t fool anyone.

  33. Pingback: L’économie passe d’un vent arrière le poussant vers un vent de face le retenant – Nobody – Perspectivisme

  34. reante says:

    I believe that because of the events of new year’s eve, we are getting very close to the big nuclear scare. There is only one year until the 2024 US presidential campaign starts. Tulsi Gabbard will be meeting with Putin during her campaign. I wonder whether it will be early in the campaign or in the second half of it. They may meet numerous times. In either case it doesn’t leave a whole lot of time for them to get the actors assembled onstage and the props in place before the curtain is raised. I see zerohedge has an article about a Russian ship headed out into the Atlantic.

    • Very Far Frank says:

      What happened over new year’s eve?

      • reante says:

        A butterfly flapped its wings in a Rothschild sunroom somewhere. 🙂

        The dubious mass Russian troop casualty at the hands of the himars. Which sounds like it’s causing quite a stir back at home.

    • banned says:

      Putin Tulsi my dream ticket! Ok Tulsi can go on top. As it should be. She is definatly more Alpha than Putin. Tulsi Putin 24! Ha. Just kidding. Dont be calling me a national exasomist.

      What im witnessing is the Russians have got soft. The Ukrainians are far closer to the model of the tough russian of ww1 or ww2 dieing in the trenches by the million. Their combat operation are very minimalist. The conscripts would be far happier back in Moscow doing whatever. Which demonstrates they are sane. They used their cell phones and it got them blown up. Question why are they allowed cell phones? The answer should tell you something about the state of Russian society.

  35. Mirror on the wall says:

    A total focus on Syria in the Western MSM for several years has been replaced by total radio silence because of the total failure of the USA/ UK Neo-Con venture to reorganise the Middle East in perceived USA interests, and now the entire Middle East is reorganising itself to exclude the USA and the West as a whole. The MSM goes all out to support Neo-Con adventures, and goes totally silent when they fail.

    This is what I was saying, NATO is on a losing geopolitical streak, in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Turkey, Afghanistan &c., and there is no real facing up to that. USA is currently completely blowing up USA global hegemony, in UKR, and uniting almost the entirety of the rest of the world in an all-out politico-financial effort to depose USA, and to construct a multi-polar world.

    > Turkey, Syria coming together. Bolton fumes, wants Turkey out of NATO

    • Rodster says:

      The man is a prime example of a Neocon and Warmonger. He has never seen a war he did not like.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        America is a very ‘modern’ society and they cannot necessarily tell who the people, ‘in control’, are at a single glance in the way that is more the case in the shires. The same is likely the case in AUS/ NZ.

        The USA presidential system has clearly failed. Whatever Biden is supposed to be, he is not a functional president. He does not even know where he is and how he got there much of the time. The Irish would not let him run the local pub let alone the state.

        Empires rise and fall. The people who establish them are soon dead, and often a completely different type rises to the top. These idiots/ chavs do not stand a chance in the real world.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          When Bidet shakes hands with a ghost or loses his way – that is all an act…

          Just like George Bush was never a real cowboy – he just talked like one

          Bidet is a fairly low IQ scumbag grifter.. but he knows what he’s doing

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            “but he knows what he’s doing”

            Biden is a piece of useless trash like most Westerners these days. It will not be very long before that draws its consequence on the world stage.

          • banned says:

            Sorry there is somthing very odd about him. Scumbag grifter would be a significant upgrade although he is certainly that.
            Its like hes not totally in this world but some aspect of him is in another unseen world. Thats why I would much prefer Kamala. Incompetent is preferable to creepy wierd.

    • Needless to say, we don’t hear about this at all in the US. Syria has pretty much disappeared from the news; Turkey was never in the news much. In the current conflict situation, the US has enemies around the world.

  36. Mirror on the wall says:

    Food production in France hit by 10X energy costs, translated from Le Figaro.

    “According to several sources, other agri-food groups could be in great difficulty in January, weakening the continuity of production.”

    https://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-eco/inflation-energetique-cofigeo-le-geant-francais-de-l-agroalimentaire-va-arreter-temporairement-80-de-sa-production-20221206

    William Saurin and Garbit shut down almost all of their production

    It’s a little thunderclap in food. The owner of these well-known brands, Cofigeo, temporarily shut down four of its eight factories in France on Monday, which represent 80% of its production.

    “ A breaking point. In referring to the energy wall at the beginning of December that many French agri-food companies are preparing to face, Mathieu Thomazeau, the president of Cofigeo (William Saurin, Garbit) half-acknowledged the impossibility for his French canneries to continue to operate at the given energy prices.

    The decision was finally recorded on December 6, and comes into force on Monday January 2, 2023. The group known for its brands William Saurin, Garbit, Raynal and Roquelaure and Zapetti is shutting down four of its eight factories in France. Namely the sites of Capdenac (Aveyron), Pouilly-sur-Serre (Aisne), Camaret-sur-Aigues (Vaucluse) and Lagny (Marne).

    This represents approximately 80% of the group’s production. And 800 of its 1,200 French employees will be granted a long-term partial activity agreement (APLD). ” The purpose of this decision is to deal with the spectacular increase in its energy costs (gas and electricity necessary for cooking and sterilizing ready meals and recipes), which will be multiplied by 10 from the start of the year. “, justified the group in a press release.

    Energy bill of 40 million euros

    Already at the beginning of December, Cofigeo, which achieves 330 million euros in turnover, 90% of which in France, had warned of the surge in its energy rating on 1 January. “It will go overnight, from 4 million to 40 million euros “, figured with Le Figaro Mathieu Thomazeau, its president. After months of savings, the specialist in canned couscous and cassoulets felt that it had no other solution than to prepare to stop its production lines. The canning specialist thus signed an agreement a few weeks ago with its unions to set up an APLD in its eight French factories. The goal: to be able to adapt its production quickly.

    The group, “which is doing everything possible to get out of this situation as quickly as possible”, does not specify the duration of the planned production stoppage. But he insists, alongside the 10% drop in his energy consumption, “the imperative need to pass on these waves of inflation which will increase from January 1 with the end of our energy coverage”. Since December 1, distributors and food manufacturers have been in discussions to set prices for 2023. The latter are insisting on a significant increase in their supplier prices, given the prices of gas and electricity.

    This choice by Cofigeo is a small clap of thunder in the food industry. In view of the inflation of its costs, it has been warning for weeks about the risk of production line shutdowns . Until then, apart from a few heavy industry players like Duralex, no food manufacturer had taken such a drastic decision. According to several sources, other agri-food groups could be in great difficulty in January, weakening the continuity of production.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      US LNG Exports in 2022 Match Qatar, #1 in the World. US Natural Gas Price Plunges 11% Today, 40% in 2 Weeks

      https://wolfstreet.com/2023/01/03/us-lng-exports-in-2022-match-qatar-1-in-the-world-us-natural-gas-price-plunges-11-today-40-in-2-weeks/

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        And how does the price for France compare between Russian piped gas and USA shipped LNG at the point of use?

        • I am afraid I don’t have a very good answer to give you. Maybe someone else knows more details. In general, LNG would be expected to be more expensive than pipeline gas, because of the high cost of shipping. I do have a few thoughts, however:

          LNG shipped to Europe will be sold at the market LNG price, whatever that happens to be. (It doesn’t depend on the US cost of production.) The market price tends to be extremely variable, depending on weather, finances of factories using natural gas as an input, and other factors. This is a link to a chart I found:
          https://ycharts.com/indicators/europe_natural_gas_price

          It is a little out of date, with an indicated price of $35.72 USD per Million Btu for November 2022. For May 2020 (a very low demand month), the price of imported LNG was given as $1.575 USD per million Btu. Needless to say, natural gas providers do not like a market that is this variable.

          It is my understanding that long term LNG contracts, such as those Japan purchases, normally vary with the price of oil.

          This is a chart I found from a Japanese publication I receive comparing Japan’s LNG prices, Europe’s LNG prices, and US Henry Hub prices (here in the US). The publication was dated December 20, 2022. https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/LNG-and-natural-gas-comparison-from-IEEEJ-Dec-20-2022-1024×775.png

          You can see how much higher European spot price have been compared to Japanese contract prices for LNG and Henry Hub prices. I understand that US Henry Hub prices are now back down below $5 per million Btu.

          With a huge price differential between US natural gas prices and European spot prices, there is an incentive for the US to export more LNG. But ramping up export capacity is not easy or quick. It is also not clear that the US actually has a lot of natural gas to export, more than it is currently exporting. If the price would stay permanently high, it could perhaps extract and ship more.

  37. Herbie Ficklestein. says:

    When there is nothing much to go around…one could “earn” their way to paradise in Heaven…
    Archaeologists recently found the remains of a 1,500-year-old monk, who was buried in a cist grave next to two small niche-like closed cells in the central apse of the church. Around the neck, hands and feet of the monk are a series of iron rings weighing tens of kilograms, which the researchers suggest are symbolic of living an ascetic lifestyle, wearing the chains to prove his devotion.
    Monks that followed asceticism lived a lifestyle characterised by abstinence from sensual pleasures in the pursuit of salvation, redemption from sin, or spirituality.
    More extreme asceticism included the practice of chaining the body to rocks or within a cell, praying seated on a pillar in the elements, solitary confinement, abandoning personal hygiene, or self -inflicted pain and voluntary suffering.
    The monk found at Khirbat el-Masani likely lived in or near the church compound, placing himself in seclusion while chained inside a secluded closed cell. The practice originates in Syria in the 4th or 5th century AD, however, the discovery of the burial shows that this form of extreme asceticism spread as far south as the Jerusalem region during the Byzantine period.
    Another example was previously discovered by archaeologists during excavations at Giv’at HaMatos near the Mar Elias Monastery, located between Jerusalem and Bethlehem. Archaeologists at the time found the burial of a man wearing iron chains around the upper body in a subterranean cave consisting of two cubicles.
    How would Desert Fathers react to today’s lifestyle in the West, I wonder?
    Israel Antiquities Authority

    • Maybe the lifestyle of monks will become popular again, perhaps without the heavy weights. There needs to be some excuse for voluntarily cutting back on energy consumption.

      • Herbie Ficklestein. says:

        There was a “revival” of postulates immediately after WWII and during the period of the counterculture of the 6Os …
        Seems during periods of social upheaval, strife and discontent, people seek “answers” from the inner spiritual realm.
        Just googled Trappist Monks…seems they are struggling to attract new prospective members….many may have had lived in the world

        Brother Joseph Swedo was bent forward in his chair, his rugged hands folded delicately in his lap. As a monk at Mepkin Abbey, a Trappist monastery in South Carolina, he maintains that Roman Catholic order’s code of prayer, work, seclusion, poverty and chastity. And for the last 73 years — since he joined the order at age 17, answering a call from God, he said — physical labor has been an integral part of his daily routine.
        Lately, though, Brother Joseph’s health has taken a turn for the worse, narrowing the scope of his monastic life. He is no longer strong enough, he said, to regularly attend the first or last of Mepkin’s seven daily prayer services — vigils at 3:20 a.m., and compline at 7:35 p.m. Nor can he fully participate during the roughly five hours set aside each day for agricultural work and the upkeep of the monastery’s grounds.
        “Right now, it’s a bleak situation,” he said. “We’re all getting old.”
        Read: ‘Silent, Yes, but Never Withdrawn’: Readers Respond to this Dwindling Catholic Monastery
        New York Times

        • Although he was ascetic apparently he got the shots

          If I were him I would see that covid is the vehicle which was sent to take him to the heavens

          Guess he didn’t want to die quickly so he chose to die slowly

      • Cromagnon says:

        “A Canticle for Leibowitz”

        Lord knows there is nothing in any relationship with a modern western woman that any sane male would want.

  38. Mrs S says:

    You’re all so pessimistic! You should look at this website showing the progress of smartcities. They have all kinds of innovations up their sleeves – drone taxis, drone freight delivery, integrated transport, health surveillance apps. And look – they have created kinetic floor tiles at a railway station which generate a staggering 4 joules per step.

    https://cities-today.com/footsteps-generate-energy-at-uk-rail-station/

    • drb753 says:

      who pays the energy bill for those 4 joules?

    • Today’s non-winners will return to the lifestyle your husband enjoyed in the 1960s.

      Thanks to Chucky Fitzclarence and his Worcester 200 (who are equally guilty) doing ‘their duty’, too many people in the world lived better than they deserved.

      The smartcities are for today’s winners. You will be cut at its door if you don’t have the permission to enter. Not much different from the medieval Kyoto, where only nobles lived in there and the servants commuted for a couple hours walking (horses and oxcarts were only for the nobles).

      • Dennis L. says:

        kul,

        The sixties were wonderful in the states, a cop could support his family one salary, bus rides were cheap, summer programs were free, school was good with no crazy courses. Girls dressed well, not like hookers, guys were clean and neat. Chruch was good, Sunday school was good. I claim Church and Sunday school were replaced by Nitzsche which gave college phil profs something to drone on and on about.

        Consuming does not make happy, it leads to anxiety.

        Smartcities look like hell to me.

        Dennis L.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Nice humor, OFW needs more of that.

      Dennis L.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      https://c.tenor.com/6vvL7C_nd74AAAAC/tenor.gif

      You are clogging up the interweb with this nonsense.

      Can you please find me some SADS – I need a fix … ideally a celebrity

  39. Hubbs says:

    I am becoming more and more impressed with Brian Berletic who has been giving us daily updates on the Ukraine War but who has quietly been pursuing other issues.
    In this video he exposes the undercurrent of the big pharma profit motive and essentially legalized piracy of tax payer and private charity funded research that has already delivered very cost-effective medical treatments.

    Big pharma has bypassed the expense of costly R&D.

    Big pharma is a key participant in our snowballing fascist political-corporate state.
    Quite hypocritically, it is the big pharma who is the virus. It usurps the machinery of a publicly taxpayer and charity funded R&D system to gain financially, and, like a disease, to cripple our society through wealth extraction.

    Big pharma disguises its treachery by “highlighting” the high cost of ineffective conventional treatments, in this cited TED talk case, maybe $3.5 million according to Berletic, on treatments that fail, and thus justifying holding patients and families for ransom via a “bargain” treatment of $475,000 for a one-time injection whereas the costs, even with allowances for generous profit, could be much less.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YTELoyugsOc

    • Fast Eddy says:

      War? I keep looking for battle footage… I get an explosion off in the distance from time to time … and every so often I see a ‘leaked’ clip of what looks like a director shouting instructions — a camera crew – and what appear to be actors …

      I remember when it all started the ‘correspondents’ in full body armour interviewing people on the trains … who demonstrated zero concern about any war… then there was that clip from the BBC of the correspondent in mortal danger in the ‘war zone’ and in the background a woman was walking home with her shopping…

      It does amaze at me at how obvious they make these things — yet people continue to trust BBCCNN. This war is a joke

      https://i.gifer.com/origin/7f/7f3ab4a1c293d04318accad0102126f1_w200.gif

    • It seems like the medical system is always at odds with itself. It doesn’t really want patients to get well. It also doesn’t want people to use cheap generic drugs, because it is hard to make money off of them. Worse yet, it doesn’t want over the counter drugs to cure diseases, because that would cut doctors out of the system.

      Now there seems to be something else that would work. If it is cheap to produce, that doesn’t really work. The whole medical structure is so big and expensive, it needs to get money out of patients somehow to fund its high costs.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        It’s purposed to create life-long addicts. A hugely successful business model.

        The Elders don’t care — so long as they have enough healthy minions to operate the farm

      • Dennis L. says:

        Could it be two systems?

        1. Medicine fixes things that are broken.

        2. Public health should improve the environment so as to avoid problems as possible. Diet, environment, personal habits come to mind.

        Dennis L.

        • Medicine mostly produces cover-ups for symptoms. It doesn’t really fix things that are broken. Perhaps dental implants are the closest fix for things that are broken.

          The field of medicine has grown over the years, especially in the US. It has been seen as a way to high status and high wealth. It supposedly can cure all problems, including baldness, overweight, and skin wrinkles. The various kinds of care facilities can handle the huge problem of taking care of an ailing grandparent for years, or the problems of a single person, who doesn’t have children and grandchildren.

          Public health doesn’t have enough teeth to fix the problems we are encountering. Too much processed food. Huge servings at restaurants. Too little exercise.

  40. Student says:

    (Reuters)

    ”Chevron to Send First Venezuelan Crude Cargo to Mississippi Refinery Under U.S. License.
    […] Another Chevron-chartered vessel, the UACC Eagle, arrived on Tuesday in Venezuelan waters, the Eikon data also showed, carrying some 500,000 barrels of heavy naphtha that will be used to operate Petropiar’s crude upgrader.
    […] Washington had previously authorized Italy’s Eni and Spain’s Repsol to recoup pending debts in Venezuela by taking Venezuelan crude for refining in Europe.”

    https://gcaptain.com/chevron-to-send-first-venezuelan-crude-cargo-to-mississippi-refinery-under-u-s-license/

    Is the above issue linked to the following problem described by Oil Price?

    ”U.S. Shale’s Refining Crisis.
    […] Lighter oils tend to produce relatively more gasoline, while medium and heavy crudes produce more diesel and kerosene.”

    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shales-Refining-Crisis.html

    • drb753 says:

      Shale works best when mixed with sand tar products. Too bad sand tar and shale are both horribly energy expensive.

      • Actually, oil and natural gas from shale formations produced by fracking is not very energy intensive. The EROEI studies in this regard show it to have quite a high EROEI. Its cost of production is high for other reasons. There is a lot of confusion in this regard for two reasons (1) its cost of production is high, so people assume its EROEI must be low, and (2) there is a different energy product called “shale oil” that has a low EROEI.

        There is a different product that is called “shale oil,” that is “baked out” of rocks in the four corner regions in Western US that has a poor EROEI. This is what is written up in the literature, under the name “shale oil.” (The author is Cutler Cleveland.) In fact, there has been essentially zero oil has been produced by this approach because it is too energy intensive.

        To try to distinguish between the two differing types of oil, the oil produced by fracking was initially called “tight oil.” Now, a person sometimes sees it referred to as shale oil.

        The Biophysical Economics folks have not done much to publicize this finding because it is kind of embarrassing.

        Tight oil:
        https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284249427_Net_energy_analysis_of_Bakken_crude_oil_production_using_a_well-level_engineering-based_model

        Tight gas:
        https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/10/1986

        Now, “shale oil” is used for both products, making for a very confusing situation.

        • drb753 says:

          but the cost of production high means the total energy cost is high.

          • Not necessarily. EROEI only counts parts of total costs. The technique basically works poorly, in my opinion. This is the reason I have been unwilling to use it. It is very often misleading.

            I have given talks at many of the Biophysical Economic conferences, trying to explain what is wrong with the technique.

            There are no more conferences announced and no officers for the organization that I have seen. This is a link to the 2021 conference. I was a “featured speaker.”https://www.isbpe.org/conference-2021

            There was a call asking for volunteers to be officers, and I am not aware that anyone came forward. The academic journal the group tried to start (of which I am an editor) seems to have died, for lack of articles.

            • reante says:

              It’s good, Gail, to be getting closer to understanding your beef with EROEI, WRT tight oil anyway.

              drb’s comments would have been my comments exactly.

              How are any financial costs of getting tight oil to market not related to the energy costs when a dollar is a proxy for energy?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Boring.

              Give me some death and maiming! If not that… TP….

              https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ObviousNecessaryHart-small.gif

            • i see the lesser spotted eddywit is maintaining it normal hover-height for 2023

            • drb753 says:

              Maybe I am unclear on the concept. I did see models that include all energy costs stating that shale returns to the economy only 60% of the extracted energy. Is EROEI a quantity defined in a certain way, that does not include all energy costs, or does it just ignore labor costs?

            • Most analyses point to the old Cutler Cleveland article that point to the EROEI of entirely the wrong product.

              It is hard to tell what assumptions are in the calculations you see. There are many different kinds of energy, used at many places in the chain of production and distribution. It is definitely not the case that part of the extracted oil is used to extract the oil. I have seen co-produced natural gas used to produce offshore oil. Natural gas tends to be a very inexpensive product, compared to oil, in the US.

              Things like lease costs have no energy associated with them. Debt costs wouldn’t either. Human labor and taxes will not have energy costs associated with them.

              There is also a problem of using “models” to figure out what the EROEI is. With the right assumptions about future costs, lifetimes of wells, need for repairs, and other things, it is possible to get a wide range of answers.

              Energy used in refining would vary greatly for different types of oil. I would expect it to be fairly low for tight oil, since it doesn’t need “cracking” the way very heavy oil often does.

            • Withnail says:

              Maybe I am unclear on the concept. I did see models that include all energy costs stating that shale returns to the economy only 60% of the extracted energy.

              A lot of diesel gets burned in the whole fracking process but doesn’t get returned to the system by the new well.

            • the economic viability of fracked oil is entirely dependent on the surpluses of conventional wells–( which is in decline)

              If conventional oil ceases to be available we will not have sufficient surplus energy capacity to allow any sinking of or production from fracked wells.

              This why a lot of fracking operations are ceasing right now

            • Right! EROEI doesn’t distinguish between terribly useful energy, like diesel, and other energy. In fact, researchers don’t usually know much about the properties of the things they are modeling.

            • reante says:

              I’m assuming Gail’s is a technical argument whereas my understanding of EROEI is merely a crude all-things-considered effective, whole-sector EROEI. I mean there’s a reason the Dallas Fed stopped marking to market the sector’s assets back in 2011 or whenever. I assume that’s still in effect.

            • Student says:

              Gail, I’m very interested to this argument, so I divide my post into 2 points, just with the purpose to possibly understand better from you as a great expert:

              A) first of all, I posted that news about Venezuela mainly because I thought it was related to the fact that with (using the general term of) fracking oil, it is possible to produce only a small portion of diesel and mainly gasoline.
              Therefore US needs to import from Venezuela being more difficult now to import from Russia and not so many available from Saudi Arabia.
              ..And, as we know, diesel is fundamental for any economy.
              (please, if you don’t mind, let me know if I got it right).

              B) Now with your explanation above about extraction costs I have my ideas more confused than before.
              (please let me know more details about extraction costs of fracking oil, if you don’t mind)

              Many thanks!

            • Canada produces bitumen from the oil sands. This is very good from the point of view of producing diesel. This is a major reason we import so much oil from Canada. Mexico has historically produced fairly heavy oil, as well. Oil produced in the US tends to be quite light.

              I don’t know how awful for extraction Venezuela’s very heavy oil is, compared to Canada’s. There have been big differences between the countries. Venezuela doesn’t have much else to export besides its heavy oil, so it needs high taxes on whatever oil it exports, to be able to have revenue for its other programs. If we somehow decide that no more tax revenue goes to Venezuela, except what is needed for direct services to the oil field, there likely will be problems with workers, their families, schools, healthcare and many other things.

              I am not very optimistic about getting Venezuela’s production ramped up by much. There is also the detail that Venezuela owes China a substantial amount of oil exports for repayment of debt it took out earlier. I suppose the plan is for Venezuela to default on this debt.

              The issue with fracking now is that drillers of oil wells are running out of “sweet spots” to drill. Prices are not high enough, on a consistent basis, to lure them into doing more drilling. There are also problems with supply line problems with steel pipe and other goods purchased from China, I understand. The system does not give an adequate return.

              No one wants to give good answers to what real costs are. Charles Hall thought he had a way that he could get graduate students to measure energy consumption in a way that was consistent from oil well to oil well. But the system hasn’t proven very useful, trying to generalize to fracked oil and to non-oil types of energy. There is just too much complexity in the system. Even with oil there tends to be a problem: Oil tends to be valuable; natural gas tends to be a waste product because the cost (including energy cost) is all in transport. If it is possible to use natural gas where it is extracted, an oil and gas company is money ahead.

              Oil and gas companies put out reports in a way to look good to shareholders. It may not be easy to figure out exactly what is going on.

              Taxes tend to be a big part of oil companies’ costs. This is the opposite of “clean energy,” which operates heavily on subsidies.

            • reante says:

              “Wide range of answers”: yeah for sure. The classic range was something like shale EROEI at 10-20:1 with present civilization needing 15-20:1, and tar sands being 8-12:1 or something like that. Obviously these are highly crude estimates and I see why you’d have a beef with them on some level but I imagine they’re good ballpark estimates and that has conceptual value for me in the cheap seats. It underpins the whole Red Queen Effect.

            • These EROEI numbers make no sense with intermittent renewables. In fact, they don’t make sense at the wellhead for natural gas, either, because nearly all of the energy cost is in the delivery system. In fact, the delivery system for natural gas and for electricity has to be when and where the energy is needed. EROEI has not figured out a way to measure that. Storage from summer to winter has definitely been not included for wind and solar. At most, a few hours storage is being added. This helps air conditioners use solar energy in summer, but it doesn’t fix the basic problem.

              Hydroelectric is even an “off and on” source of electricity. Some water can be stored behind the dam. But the value of a “rainy season only” hydroelectric dam in countries near the equator is quite limited. Most businesses cannot operate only part of the year. The dam may have seriously detrimental effects on downstream neighbors and on the ecosystem.

            • the EREOI thing has its flaws, obviously

              but we built or basic infrastructure when oil was returning 100:1—1900s–1940s/50s

              now the best wells return 20.1

              fracked and all the other stuff about 8 .1

              Hydrogen 1.5:1

              It has been estimated that we need about 14:1 to sustain ourselves.
              Hubbert spelled out our future, and gave clear dates.

              All the conflict we see around us is because it is becoming very obvious that we are no longer in a position to sustain ourselves.

              We are therefore fighting for survival now

            • reante says:

              Norm

              “If conventional oil ceases to be available we will not have sufficient surplus energy capacity to allow any sinking of or production from fracked wells.”

              You don’t say… 🙂

              If conventional oil ceases then…. everything industrial ceases.

            • Student says:

              Thank you Gail for further explanation.
              The system seems to have reached a very high level of complexity..
              My impression is that almost every Country is living on the edge..

            • I would agree that almost every country is living on the edge. Every country depends om business as usual continuingm but BAU can’t continue.

            • reante says:

              Gail

              If it helps, i have always understood that these EROEI ballpark estimates are based on bringing these commodities to market as finished products.

            • They generally represent “wellhead” numbers. Transmission lines, shipping and storage are not included. Even refining may not be included. Studies that combine the results of a number of different academic papers almost certainly include terribly narrow “boundaries,” because that is what is easiest to analyze, so that is what researchers use. EROEI analyses were often prepared to smooth the sale of wind turbines, for example.

              Oil has the lowest shipping costs. Trying to compare its “wellhead cost” to that of other things gives apples to oranges EROEI comparisons.

            • reante says:

              Ok. At the wellhead. Thanks for the correction. Thinking about it some more I have always thought of conventional oil EROEI as at the wellhead but I guess I thought of the tight oil low EROEI as being so low in part because of the lack of infrastructure and maybe also from wrongly lumping it in/associating it with the low-return tarsands which doesn’t have wellheads.

              Thanks Norm for your numbers. The hydrogen one was interesting to see.

        • Dennis L. says:

          Okay, a bit of humor.

          The EROEI of the group was less than zero?

          Dennis L.

        • Mike Roberts says:

          Regarding EROEI, I recently came across this review of EROEI literature, which looked at point of use EROI and concluded that oil is less than 10 while renewables are above 10. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/14/12/7098

          A separate study I saw (sorry, no link) suggested that an EROI of as low as 6 was the minimum for BAU.

          Both seem to be wide of the mark.

          • Intermittent wind and solar are in no way comparable to what the EROEI calculation compares them. Intermittent electricity that is not available when society needs it is pretty much worthless. It only substitutes for fuel, not electricity. This study is garbage, in my opinion. People will freeze in the dark, with this approach.

            We need energy of the right types to grow our crops. Intermittent electricity does not plow our fields, nor transport the food to market.

          • reante—-

            “If conventional oil ceases to be available we will not have sufficient surplus energy capacity to allow any sinking of or production from fracked wells.”

            That point is blindly obvious—but I put it in because people are believing that fracked oil is going to allow BAU.

            they have no understanding of where the energy to drill frack wells comes from

    • Dennis L. says:

      Warren purchased CVX recently, enough said.

      Attempting to not be sarcastic, perhaps ff for a few more years?

      Dennis L.

    • Of course, the naphtha is needed to thin the Venezuela’s very heavy oil. The US also sends something similar, via pipeline, to Canada to thin bitumen produced in the oil sands.

  41. Hubbs says:

    From Mish, a good summary.
    Just like non profitable shale and solar panels which required huge subsidies (wealth transfers) here we go with EVs.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/technology/mad-rush-build-more-ev-factories-where-are-minerals

    It really seems like a coordinated multi front attack on society’s mobility, to leave people stranded up the creek without a battery. No gas, no electricity, no money, no freedom on the internet.

    Big social media and “information” sites like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and until recently, Twitter, become behemoth command and control centers through spying and censorship thanks to government (CIA, NSA. NIA) subsidies. You don’t think Microsoft got to be where it is without being financially groomed by these rogue agencies and hidden slush funds do you? Now that the government has been “authorized” to keep a second set of books thanks to FASB56, it’s no surprise that trillions of dollars are unaccounted for, as Catherine Austin Fitts and Mark
    Skidmore from U of Michigan have discovered.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      https://twitter.com/MishGEA/status/1424762591532908548

      Mike “Mish” Shedlock
      @MishGEA
      ·
      Aug 10, 2021
      When did I propose people had no choice on vaccines?

      They do, and so do companies who can mandate vaccines.

      But it is those unvaccinated who are spreading nearly all the grief.

      Here’s hope Mish the Jack Ass Shedlock — experiences a Big Fat Vax Injury in 2023!

  42. MG says:

    What was so different in the past?

    The elderly stayed at top of things, accepted their limitations given by ageing.

    Today they protest at the anti-immigration meetings, try to keep up with the trends and stay young.

    They simply started to believe the propaganda that the humans defeated the aging. They are crazy: Instead of meditating about the reality that is more and more outside of our control, they try to fight it…

    • After Liz Bathory, there are still Protestants in Slovakia

      There will always be those who will continue to believe

      • MG says:

        The questions the individuals face today are the questions of implosion. The humans commit sins because they do not have energy. The world was created as having limits where the human species can live based on the varying energy from the Sun.

        The flaws of the religions in understanding the reality make them lose their members. The ageing of the populations creates masses of the people that are unable to care for themselves, further and further from the resources.

        The life changes into emergency actions, instead of normal, peaceful existence.

  43. drb753 says:

    The recent events on MNF primetime (in a game where the #1 playoff seed was on the balance) offer a good view on how covid team (someone else may call it “the globalists”, which is fine) operates. There was no planning, no reaction (for an event that was highly likely) while half the nation continued to watch the game, getting a higher degree of consciousness by the minute (of course it is still very low). It is a very vertical structure where several levels of the structure had to be contacted until one elder put a stop to the game. Meetings are probably ongoing to fine tune the strategy.

    It is my guess that the Bills will be quickly eliminated from the playoffs this year, possibly due to weird refereeing, to get this thing out of first page ASAP, but next year they may benefit from crucial calls or non calls and be compensated.

    I see a structure not too different from the current edition of the US government, or any large US university. Lots of people paid for, lots of silent quitters, management pushes through half baked plans, no one works out the details, crisis that require quick action go unanswered. Lots of factions too, although calling them factions is too strong a word. For those of you who study these things, you can see what gums the works and how to generate more. In many respects a paper tiger. Assange did write about it.

    • reante says:

      Watching the footage made me think that the Bills coach was the one who forced the decision to suspend. He was definitely leading the show out there in that full version FE linked to on Dailymotion. He did 99pc of the talking. And the refs had earpieces connected to the men upstairs. And it was clear what a closed society we live in as he covered his mouth with his hand the whole time. Sending the players back out there would’ve just been an injury (non-vax) waiting to happen. Coaches are some of the only moral authorities left.

      Everybody out there knew the score. 99pc vax uptake by black men on the field and, what, 20pc uptake in genpop. Everybody was already waiting for it to happen. Probably a worse shock that it happened to one of the best raw athletes among them.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Some suggest half of the NFL players didn’t vax… I doubt that …

        They are not a whole lot less susceptible to the con…

        There are around a dozen instructors at M Fast’s gym… extremely fit all of them … I believe every single one of them took the shots… they were mandated… so similar to the NFL but without the pay packets… 3 have gone down with vax injuries

        The NFL is a meat grinder — I understand the average career length is 4 yrs… you get hurt… you piss off a coach .. you have a few sub par games — you can be out… and there are no other leagues that pay that kinda dosh…

        They tell you to vax… you vax. Unless you are a superstar… then you do whatever you want

        • reante says:

          I didn’t follow it closely but I do believe that the NFL had the most onerous punishments of the major sports for going unvaxxed and compliance was well over 90pc.

          I believe Black Americans are the most noncompliant demographic in America. And black men more than women. For obvious reasons of low trust in government, but also because of the tuskegee experiment.

          Almost all these black players come from working class and poor backgrounds, so most people they grew up with and their family members resisted the vaxxes. Them getting the vaxx is them getting to continue to live the dream, and to continue to economically lift up their family and friends in many cases. In a sense I doubt doubt that many of them were taking one for the team, and I don’t mean the football team. They know what’s going on. We’re not the only conspiracy theorists out there. Blacks traditionally are culturally conservative christians, because of their history of liberation theologies. That’s antivaxx territory. And then there are all the dissidents of the rap world, with Kanye at the top , the black Muslim also movement which is separatist and radical.

  44. Fast Eddy says:

    College of Psychologists of Ontario attempt to Strip Jordan Peterson of his License.

    Canadian psychologist and author Dr. Jordan Peterson could be stripped of his license to practice clinical psychology over his sharing of political posts on social media. The College of Psychologists of Ontario which regulates the profession in his home province has disciplined Peterson over the sharing of political posts on Twitter.

    Peterson says he got in hot water with the College because he retweeted posts about PM Justin Trudeau, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, Trudeau advisor, Gerald Butts, New Zealand PM Jacinda Ardern and others.

    https://bjdichter.substack.com/p/college-of-psychologists-of-ontario

    The amusing (can’t say ironic) thing is the liberals… will be applauding this

  45. Fast Eddy says:

    Channel 7 report on Melbourne’s fluctuating temperatures are causing “gene changes” and illnesses.

    The cover up stories and lies by the media continue.

    What we do know is a mRNA poison injection would definitely change your genes.

    https://t.me/australiaforfreedom

    Steve’s getting a bit stale with his wagers… why doesn’t he instead hire PIs to find out what happened to Tiffany Dover? https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-covid-vaccines-unsafe-and-ineffective

    • Xabier says:

      The ‘It’s CC/ Age of the Virus!’ propaganda to explain every ill puts us back in the Middle Ages, when everything which went wrong had the Devil or witches at root.

      Or the Soviet attempts to pin all problems and screw-ups on ‘saboteurs’ and agents of foreign capitalism….

      In the case of CC they really are overdoing it, rendering the propaganda useless- it should always have a grain of truth in it.

    • Adonis says:

      I think you could very well be right about uep elders are now desperate and like the saying desperate times call for desperate measures

  46. Jan says:

    Greta is a liar!!!

    While the Climate Always Has and Always Will Change, There Is no Climate Crisis

    https://ccsenet.org/journal/index.php/jsd/article/view/0/47745

  47. Fast Eddy says:

    15+ minute mark for the Hamlin injury https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x8gw47g

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