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For many years, there has been a theory that imports of oil would become a problem before there was an overall shortage of fossil fuels. In fact, when I look at the data, it seems to be clear that oil imports are already constrained.
As I look at the data, it appears to me that coal and natural gas imports are becoming constrained, as well. There was evidence of this constrained supply in the spiking prices for these fuels in Europe in late 2021 and early 2022, starting well before the Ukraine conflict began.
Oil, coal, and natural gas are different enough from each other that we should expect somewhat different patterns. Oil is inexpensive to transport. It is especially important for the production of food and for transportation. Prices tend to be worldwide prices.
Coal and natural gas are both more expensive to transport than oil. They tend to be used in industry, in the heating and cooling of buildings, and in electricity production. Their prices tend to be local prices, rather than the worldwide price we expect for oil. Prices for importers of these fuels can jump very high if there are shortages.
In this post, I first look at the trends in the overall supply of these fuels, since a big part of the import problem is fossil fuel supply not growing quickly enough to keep pace with world population growth. I also give more background how the three fossil fuels differ.
After this introductory material, I provide charts and some analysis of fossil fuel imports and exports by region, based on data from the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy. Theoretically, the total of regional imports should be very close to the total of regional exports. This analysis gives a little more insight into what is going wrong and where.
[1] On a worldwide basis, total supplies of both oil and coal seem to be constrained.
Figure 2 shows that world supplies of all three fossil fuels follow the same general pattern: They tend to rise in close to parallel lines, with oil supply on top, coal next, and natural gas providing the least supply.
The total supply of fossil fuels needs to be shared by the world’s population. It therefore makes sense to look at supply on a per capita basis.
On Figure 3, the top line, oil supply per capita, is almost perfectly level, suggesting that having a greater supply of oil enables having a larger world population. This relationship makes sense because oil is used to a significant extent in growing today’s food, and shipping it to market. Oil products also make herbicides, insecticides, and drugs for animals that enable the growing supply of food needed to feed today’s population. Oil products are also helpful in road making, and in providing lubrication for machinery of all kinds.
We might conclude that oil supply is essential to the growth of human population. It is only by way of a huge change in the economy, such as the one that took place in 2020, that there is a big dip in oil usage. Even now, some of the changes are “sticking.” Some people are continuing to work from home. Business travel is still low. People are still not buying fancy clothing as much as before 2020. All these things help reduce fossil fuel usage, particularly oil usage.
Figure 3 also shows that on a per capita basis, coal supply has fallen by 9% since its peak in 2011. This fact, plus the fact that coal prices have been spiking around the world in recent years, leads me to believe that coal supply is already constrained, even apart from the export issue.
[2] The share of oil traded interregionally is more than double the share of coal or natural gas traded interregionally.
The reason why oil is disproportionately high in Figure 1 compared to Figure 2 is because a little over 40% of oil is shipped between regions. In comparison, only about 18% of coal production is traded with other regions, and about 17% of natural gas production is shipped interregionally. Oil is much easier (and cheaper) to transport between regions than either coal or natural gas. Shipping costs tend to escalate rapidly, the farther either natural gas or coal is shipped.
Natural gas has a second problem over and above the high cost of shipping: It requires storage (which may be high cost) if it is not used immediately. Storage is needed for both natural gas and coal because both fuels are often used for heat in winter, either by direct burning or by creating electricity that can be used to heat buildings. Storage for coal is close to free because it can be stored in piles outside.
Besides heat in winter, coal is also used to provide electricity for air conditioning in summer, so its demand curve has peaks in both summer and winter. Natural gas is much more of a winter-heat fuel in the US, so it has a large peak corresponding to winter usage (Figure 4).
Storage for natural gas needs to be available in every area where users expect to use it for winter heat. The cost of this storage will be low if there are depleted natural gas caverns that can be used for storage. It is likely to be high if above ground storage is required. Natural gas importing areas often do not have suitable caverns for storage. The easy approach is to try to get by with a bare minimum of storage, and hope that imports can somehow make up the difference.
The big question for any fuel is, “Can consumers afford to pay a high enough price to cover all the costs involved in getting the fuel from endpoint to endpoint, at the time it is needed?“
Citizens become very unhappy if the cost of winter heat becomes extremely expensive. They demand subsidies and rebates from the government, in order to keep costs down. This is a sign that prices are too high for the consumer.
Both coal and natural gas are also heavily used in manufacturing. Their prices vary greatly from location to location and from time to time. If coal or natural gas prices rise in a particular location, the cost of manufactured goods from that location will also tend to rise. These higher prices will particularly hurt a manufacturing country, such as Germany, because its manufactured goods will become less competitive in the world marketplace. GDP growth will be reduced, and the profitably of manufacturers will tend to fall.
Because of these issues, long-distance trade in both coal and natural gas tend to hit barriers that may be difficult to see simply by looking at the trend in world production.
[3] Natural gas exports may already be becoming constrained, even though the total amount extracted still seems to be rising.
A huge amount of investment is needed to make long-distance sale of natural gas possible. Such investment includes:
- The cost of developing a natural gas field for export use, usually over many years.
- Pipelines covering every inch traveled by the natural gas, other than any portion of the trip for which transfer as liquefied natural gas (LNG) is planned.
- Special ships to transport the LNG.
- Facilities to chill natural gas, so it can be shipped overseas as LNG.
- Regasification plants, to make the natural gas ready to ship by pipeline after it has been transferred as LNG.
- Storage facilities, so that sufficient natural gas is available for winter.
Not all of these investments are made by the same organizations. They all need to provide an adequate return. Even if “only” very long-distance pipelines are used, the cost can be high.
Pipelines work best when there is no conflict among countries. They can be blown up by another country that seeks to raise natural gas prices, or that wants to retaliate for some perceived misdeed. For this reason, most growth in natural gas exports/imports in recent years has been as LNG.
Organizations investing in high-cost infrastructure for extracting and shipping natural gas would like long-term contracts at high prices in order to cover their costs. Without a stable long-term supply contract, natural gas purchase prices can be extremely variable. Japan has tended to buy LNG under such long-term contracts, but many other countries have taken a wait-and-see attitude toward prices, hoping that “spot” prices will be lower. They don’t want to lock themselves into a long-term high-priced contract.
There are two different things that tend to go wrong:
- Spot prices bounce up above even what the long-term contract price would have been, creating a huge high-price problem for consumers.
- Spot prices, on average, turn out to be too low for natural gas exporters. As a result, they cut back on investment, so that the amount of future exports can be expected to fall.
I believe that there is a significant chance that natural gas exports are now reaching a situation where prices cannot please all users simultaneously. Not all investors can get an adequate return on the huge investments that they have made in advance. Some investments that should have been made will be omitted. For example, there might be enough natural gas storage for a warm winter, but not for a very cold winter in Europe.
A prime characteristic of a fossil fuel (or any resource) that is not economic to extract is that the industry has difficulty paying its workers an adequate wage. Recently, there has been news about a union strike against Chevron at an Australian natural gas extraction site used to provide gas for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export. This suggests that natural gas may already be hitting long-distance export limits. Prices can’t stay high enough for producers to pay their workers an adequate wage.
[4] Oil imports by area suggest that the rapidly growing manufacturing parts of the world are squeezing out the imports desired by high-wage, service-oriented countries.
Because oil is so important in international trade, I looked at the amounts two ways. The first is based on trade flows, as reported by the Energy Institute:
The second is based upon a comparison of reported production and consumption for the same year, using the assumption that if consumption is higher than production, the difference must be attributable to imported oil. The problem with this later approach is that it can easily be distorted by changes in inventory levels. There may also be difficulties with my approach of netting out flows in two different directions, especially if the flows are partly of crude oil and partly of “oil products” of various types.
In both charts, imports for China, India, and Other Asia Pacific are clearly much higher in recent years, while imports for the US, Japan, and Europe are down. The peak year for imports (in total) was about 2016 or 2017. Imports were about 3.5 million barrels a day lower in 2022, compared to peak, with both approaches.
[5] Oil imports by area indicate that nearly all oil exporters around the globe are having difficulty maintaining export levels.
Here, again I show two indications, using the same methods as for oil imports. Since trade is two sided, I would expect total import indications to more or less equal the total of all amounts exported.
On Figure 7, peak oil exports (in total) occur in 2016, with the runner up year being 2017. US oil exports are shown to be nearly zero, even in recent years, because US imports and US oil exports more or less cancel out.
The indications of Figure 8 show that apart from Canada, the amount of oil exported for all the other export groupings shown is lower in recent years than it was a few years ago. This is also evident in Figure 7, but not as clearly.
To some extent, the lower production in recent years is related to the cutbacks announced by OPEC+ (including what I call Russia+). While these cutbacks are “voluntary,” they reflect the fact that based on current oil prices, and based on investments made in recent years, these countries have made the decision to cut back production. No oil exporter would dare mention that it is running short of oil that can be extracted without considerably more investment.
On Figures 7 and 8, “Mexico+South” refers to all the oil being produced from Mexico southward. Besides Mexico, this includes Brazil, Venezuela, Argentina, Columbia, Ecuador, and a number of other small producers. Most of them are experiencing falling production. Brazil is doing a bit better, but it does not seem to be experiencing much growth in exports.
Africa’s peak year for oil exports seems to have been in 2007 (both approaches), with recent exports at a much lower level.
With respect to Russia+, its exports seem to be down from their peak in 2017 or 2018, but not any more than for oil producers from the Middle East. The European Union oil embargo doesn’t seem to have had much of an impact.
The star performer seems to be Canada, with its rising production and exports from the Canadian Oil Sands.
In this analysis, I have “netted out” imports and exports. On this basis, the US hasn’t moved into significant oil exporter status yet. I am sure that there are some people hoping that the oil production of the US will continue to increase, but whether this will happen is unclear. The growth of US oil production in recent years has helped offset (and thus hide from view) the falling exports of many countries around the world.
[6] Coal exports appear to have peaked about 2016. Europe has reduced its imports of coal, leaving more for other importers.
The peak in coal imports seems to have occurred about 2016. In particular, Europe’s imports of coal have fallen significantly since 2006. At the same time, coal imports have risen for many Asian countries, including China, India, South Korea, and Other Asia Pacific. Even Japan seems to have been able to obtain a fairly consistent level of coal imports for the 22-year period shown on Figure 9.
One thing that is striking about coal exports is that they are disproportionately from countries in the Far East. Even the coal exports of the US and Canada are from North America’s West Coast, across the Pacific. Russia’s coal exports tend to be from Siberia.
The coal exports of South Africa have declined significantly since 2018, and other African countries are eager for their imports. Today’s largest source of coal exports is Indonesia. Coal exports from Russia+, at least until 2021, have been been a source of coal export growth.
A major share of the delivered price of coal is transportation cost, which tends to be fueled by oil, particularly diesel. Overland transit is particularly expensive. The real reason for Europe’s decline in coal imports since 2006 (shown in Figure 9) may be that there are practically no affordable coal exports available to it because it is too geographically remote from major exporters. Of course, this is not a story politicians care to tell voters. They prefer to spin the story as Europe’s choice, to prevent climate change.
[7] Natural gas imports and exports have only recently started to become constrained.
Figure 11 shows that natural gas exports from Russia+ (really Russia, with a little extra production from other countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States) have stayed fairly level, except for a big drop-off in 2009 (probably recession related) and in 2022.
The overall level of natural gas exports has been rising because of contributions from several parts of the world. Africa was an early producer of natural gas exports, but its exports have been dropping off somewhat recently as local gas consumption rises.
More importantly, exports have increased in recent years from the Middle East, Australia, and North America. With this growing supply of exports, it has been possible for importers to increase their imports.
Europe was able to maintain a fairly stable level of natural gas imports between 1990 and 2018, and even to increase them by 2021. China was able to ramp up its natural gas imports. Even Japan was able to ramp up its natural gas imports until about 2014. It has tapered them back since then. India and Other Asia Pacific both have been able to add a small layer of imports, too.
[8] What lies ahead?
The countries that have the greatest advantage in using fossil fuel imports are the countries that don’t heat or cool their homes, and that don’t have large numbers of private citizens with private passenger automobiles. Because of their sparing use of fossil fuel imports, their economies can afford to pay higher prices to import these fossil fuel imports than other countries. Thus, they are likely to be winners in the competition for fossil fuel imports.
Europe stands out to be an early loser of imports. It is already losing oil and coal imports, and it also seems to be an early loser of natural gas imports. However, for all its talk about preventing climate change, the reduction in European imports of fossil fuels hasn’t made much of a dent in global carbon dioxide emissions (Figure 13).
I am afraid that no country will really come out ahead. In some sense, the United States is better off than many countries because it is producing slightly more fossil fuels than it consumes. But it still depends on China and other countries for many imported goods, including computers. Given this situation, the United States likely cannot continue business as usual for very long, either.
From Sri Lanka . Cognitive dissonance and Climate change .
https://indi.ca/the-cognitive-dissonance-of-climate-collapse
Excerpts:
Also:
Another:
He later talks about climate collapse bringing extinction of humans, which is parallel to human death. I am not as convinced of human extinction at this author is.
before we had cheap fossil fuels, the population of earth was 1 bn….gove or take
now 300 years later there’s 8bn of us, and we no longer have cheap fossil fuels.
when what keeps you alive is no longer available———
we are left with certain conclusions
He loses credibility by suggesting we are impacting the klimate… but does have a point about the utter f789ing im-becility of the green groopies.
The world is on fire and they refuse to kill their children nor destroy all the private jets.
Duh
A post by Mike Shellman regarding export of US oil .
” Eighty two% of all US exports are light, tight oil from the Permian Basin, where liquids well productivity is declining, usable groundwater required for frac’ing is depleting, gassy oil wells are turning into oily gas wells, a lot of that associated gas is flared, economics are bad, horrendous amounts of borrowed capital has been lost and unless more CAPEX magically appears, rig counts will continue to decline,
In the past 30 months the price of oil is up $35 a barrel and gasoline in the US now averages $4 a gallon. I thought exports were suppose to help the US? Tight oil’s use as a foreign policy tool has failed miserably; Russian and Middle Eastern oil has strengthened China and US relationships with that country, and the Eurasian landmass is in the toilet.
My stance on US oil exports is quite simple; when you are facing starvation and still have food in your cache, for your family, why feed the entire neighborhood?
American oil and gas buys America time. We are decades away from an affordable transition to renewals. We should embrace Canadian and Venezuelan oil imports for their quality, it’s not too late to build the right refineries for the right oil and we should quit lying to each other about how much affordable oil there is left in the world.
Most arguments in favor of draining America first, for the sake of exports, revolve around personal financial gain, from CEO’s all the way down to data-sell companies. Most “what-ifs” are going to occur anyway, much sooner than people think, and no export advocate I have heard can think past next week, much less 5 years out. They all believe the Permian Basin will produce the same about of oil for the next 30 years, we can only absorb 4.5 MM BOPD of the stuff, why not dump the rest? We’ll never need it.
But we WILL need it, every barrel of it.
Berman, by the way, says 4 MM BOPD of super light oil off the world market might raise the price of gasoline in the US 10 cents.
Otherwise, all these explanations and arguments for MY stance on exports only makes sense to you. Not to me. I liked the lecture on entitlement, especially from California, globalization is bunk (ask them BRIC boys) and the price of oil better get to $130 quick or everybody in the world is going to be riding squeaky bicycles. And being complacent about policies because politicians rule the country is EXACTLY what is wrong with America. People will believe what they are told to believe. Not me.
I am comfortable with my position on exports, and why, even though I am a Texan, have a half century IN the oil and natural gas business and am mostly chided for it. Country first.
Those still standing, with the most natural resources, wins.
The future is NOT now, it’s in the future.
very good food for thought.
I am assuming that whole post is quoting MS.
what do you agree or disagree with?
and my multiple posts below dealt with the symbiotic relationship between the USA and Canada for their oil production and refining.
I’d be interested in your thoughts there also.
This is a link to Mike Shellman’s website.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com
He has a lot of blog posts and other written material on the site, but I haven’t been able to figure out exactly where this quote comes from.
Mike Shellman has a lot of worthwhile things to say. The trend toward more natural gas and natural gas liquids is a big concern of his. They certainly don’t produce the diesel fuel we need to grow food. We need oil from Canada and Mexico to get heavier oil.
It seems to me TPTB are making the U.S. the pit bull of the world. Bringing in the most violent of south America and the most violent of Africa. Will they be able to harness their new war dog? I hope not. I hope it tears them limb from limb.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/09/massachusetts-calls-up-national-guard-cope-ilegal-immigrants/
National guard to provide food, housing, medical, education, transportation for the new settlers.
Hahaha, it serves them right. The blue states were dumping the illegals in the middle of the night in red states and the red states, decided to return the favor.
Talking with the town tax assessor this weekend. She says people are buying houses for full assessed price and simply tearing them down so they can build what they want. Still plenty of money in NYC.
Strange things do happen!
Mass D https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/50815
It is now sterile for life. Could it give informed consent never gone through puberty? Never having kissed anybody, etc…..
Let’s poop in norm’s mouth:
HORROR: All Cause Mortality hits epidemic levels.
Children under the age of 24 are dying at 40% excess mortality over the last TWO years.
There is only one explanation for this. The untested and mandated Covid vaccine is killing young people slowly.
No more excuses. It’s time for arrests.
Join ➣ 👉@COVID19VACCINEVICTIMSANDFAMILIES
We know there will be no arrests. There are the big people and the little people. As long as it is the little people doing the dying at the hand of the big people no arrests.
Fauci and Birx still all over CNN changing their tune as expected. And Trump still claiming the title of Father of the Jab. No arrests and no sign of Kill Gates. I’m seeing local health news ramp up convid alerts as predicted. Waiting with baited breath to see how many NPCs will go along with the charade this time. I suspect convid will be blindsided by “something new” because of poor uptake this time around. But I was totally wrong about human nature in 2020 and was shocked by how many people fell for it then.
Hi Tsubion, I also think that “something new” will have to happen to 1) camouflage the expected big wave of excess mortality and 2) convince the NPC’s of the need for a new (and perhaps much bigger) round of lockdowns & jabs.
What do you think this “new something” could be?
My best bet, for now, is GO activated by electromagnetic radiation.
what will be the source of the radiation?
what will this do to the graphene oxide?
See here.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/03/no_author/kill-grid-the-vaxx-5g-and-smart-phones-are-inextricably-linked/
resist!
This was all conspiracee talk until it wasn’t. It’s like TPTB are unleashing the 4 horseman on the world.
https://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2023/09/04/japanese-scientists-find-that-covid-19-and-all-of-the-variants-are-laboratory-creations/
Good job paul craig roberts.
4 Horsemen:
disease, famine, war, and vaccines.
This is a different write-up of the study by Japanese scientists showing that all of the different covid variants seem to have been intentionally made and released. https://zenodo.org/record/8216373
John Paul Roberts starts out:
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse Have Been Released Upon Us
And so too… will the pathogen that delivers the death blow to the immune-f789ed vaxxers… have been conjured up in a laboratory
Whatever, that’s just messing around the margins. 40% on top of roughly zero is still roughly zero and that’s supposing these morons crunched the numbers properly, which I doubt. You’re so tiresome.
Wake me when your vandergeek mutation comes along with an 80% death rate.
Immune systems of 6 billion have been damaged by the Rat Juice.
The sirens will wake you when the dying begins
Man, this statement is so grossly ignorant. A system as adaptive as the immune system completely regenerates in less than a month.
saying that eddy is wrong is illegal
Saying FE is wrong without providing supporting references… is just plain f789ing stooopid … and makes one look like a f789ing clown
but i possess sufficient (if meagre) intellect to comment without 4 number profanity, and the ability to spell stu pid (and queue)
Neither do I require a convicted, violent criminal to lend support to anything I utter (whether its right or wrong)
you, on the other hand eddy
do
Proof of a mRNA Disaster! A Buried England mRNA Data Avalanche has been Exposed. We can now Compare the % of All Cause Death (by Vaccination Status) with the % of Vaccine Uptake.
https://thenobodywhoknowseverybody.substack.com/p/proof-of-a-mrna-disaster-a-buried
hahahaha… the more you take… the more you die… excellent!
keith – science….
Hmmm… should we listen to drb — what are your qualifications… a plumber? A p.imp? Do you have any references for this statement — or did you read it in an old issue of Playboy?
Or… should we listen to:
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/connecting-the-dots-between-vaccine
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/geert-what-is-the-meaning-of-the?autoPlay=true
https://voiceforscienceandsolidarity.substack.com/p/geert-why-havent-your-predictions-a22?autoPlay=true
https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/online-course-on-the-immune-system
https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/the-mechanisms-of-two-types-of-antibody
https://drkevinstillwagon.substack.com/p/repeated-mrna-injections-can-activate
And then there are the Turbo Cancers … and endless sickness involving the heavily vaxxed… which would appear to indicate that their immune systems are NOT functioning properly.
Do we ignore all the evidence… and listen to drb… do we enter his Clown World?
For those who prefer the Clown World… let’s again have a look at this madness
https://youtu.be/dim8elzo5vE
toldya drb
disagreeing with our eddy puts you
a—on his list of s ex offenders
or b/ for more serious crimes of contradiction, listed as a cereal killer
just so’s you know.
All going off?
“The Russians confirm this fact and give more details about a development that will set fire to Eastern Europe and the Baltics.”
https://warnews247.gr/ektakto-i-oukrania-allazei-to-syntagma-gia-na-filoxenisei-polonikes-vaseis-galliko-mme-stratiotiko-soma-apo-lithouania-polonia-tha-bei-ston-polemo/
Ukraine plays its last card: It changes the Constitution to accommodate Polish bases – French Media: “Military Corps from Lithuania-Poland enters the war”!
Ukraine will activate the Defense Treaty with Poland and Lithuania
Polish government sources told French media that Warsaw is waiting for the final outcome of the Ukrainian counter-offensive before entering the war. Preparations have been completed and will be sealed with the change of Constitution from Kiev.
The Russians confirm this fact and give more details about a development that will set fire to Eastern Europe and the Baltics.
According to the Russians, the training and preparation of the Ukrainian Unit which will prepare the infrastructure for the reception of Polish forces in the country has been completed.
Currently, Poland, with the consent of its foreign allies, is preparing to carry out an international “peacekeeping mission”.
This process will begin with the development of Polish-Ukrainian centers of political-military cooperation, and then the so-called Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian corps will be gradually introduced.
The Russians absolutely confirm the report of the French television channel La Chaîne Info (LCI), which revealed on July 17 what WarNerws247 had revealed a year before:
Ukraine will activate the Defense Treaty with Poland and Lithuania.
Ukraine is preparing to welcome Polish units!
Last week, the training of a new group of Ukrainian military personnel at the base of the Polish Training Center for International Missions in the city of Kielce was completed.
The training was done according to NATO standards within the framework of the civil-military cooperation organization.
In addition, the process of preparing infrastructure for the development and operation of centers of civil-military cooperation, hosting military units, as well as cooperation with the civilian population in armed conflict was examined.
The training process was based on the experience of participating NATO military personnel in foreign missions such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Somalia and Kosovo.
French Media: A Division from Lithuania-Poland-Ukraine will enter the war!
According to Russian media “Another confirmation of the predatory intentions of the Polish authorities is the plot of the French cable news channel La Chaîne Info (LCI), which cannot be suspected of sympathy for Russia due to its openly Russophobic orientation.
“According to the channel, the Poles and their allies from NATO countries are watching with great interest the events on the fronts where the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are fighting.
“They are looking forward to the results of the counterattack of the Ukrainian troops in the south and east, as well as the offensive operation of the Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
“If Moscow wins Ukraine, then Poland and the Baltic countries will send their troops to the territories of Western Ukraine.
“We are talking about sending at least one Division.
“At the same time, “international volunteer soldiers”, that is, mercenaries from other countries, a significant part of which come from Poland, are fighting on the side of Kiev.
“They can at any time move in the right direction and provide support to units that will cross the Polish-Ukrainian border.
“French journalists learned this information from sources in the Polish government.
“It should be noted that the creation of an international body on the territory of Poland has been underway for some time.
“We are talking about the Lithuanian-Polish-Ukrainian tripartite corps (LITPOLUKRCORPS) of three enlarged brigades (essentially Divisions) with a total strength of 20-25 thousand soldiers.”
The foundation of this operational-tactical formation (connection) was entered in 2014 with the LITPOLUKRBRIG brigade consisting of forces of the countries of the Lublin Triangle (a total of 4.5 thousand people from each country militarily).
Polish sources claim that the Russian “special military operation” is an existential threat to Warsaw and its allies, as well as the West in general.
If the Russian Federation does not stop, then tomorrow its troops will be in Poland, the Baltic countries, Moldova and Georgia.
The Polish president allowed the sending of Polish troops to Ukraine!
NATO may send a peacekeeping mission to Ukraine. This is what Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with Welt, Bild and Politico.
According to him, the Polish military could also participate in this mission.
“If a collective decision is made by the alliance to send troops to enforce the ceasefire(?), then we, as a responsible NATO member, will certainly support that decision,” Duda said.
They will change the Constitution in Ukraine to accommodate foreign bases!
Kiev is ready to change the Basic Law of the state in order to allow NATO countries to deploy military bases on the territory of Ukraine.
This idea has long been proposed by the now-former Minister of Foreign Affairs, Oleksiy Reznikov.
The former minister noted that it is necessary to remove from the country’s Constitution the restriction on the development of foreign military bases, which has lost its meaning at the moment.
In addition, Reznikov spoke about the need to change the article to protect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
He believes that Kiev has the right to choose how to ensure its own security and, to that end, it should be able to join international organizations and enter into relevant agreements.
This is truly strange. Poland and Lithuania wanting to enter the war, when the war clearly isn’t going well. Maybe we are headed into World War III.
Or maybe they will launch all the nukes as UEP is completing … icing on the cake
I’m all for that idea! Let’s end the foreplay and get right into the action. Global nuke launch in 5..4..3..2..1 ☠️
Clearly war would stop tourism to Europe
It will be like old times.
https://www.vectorstock.com/royalty-free-vector/map-polish-lithuanian-commonwealth-vector-32875524
Sure is a lot of words for something that is fake
I’m sure you are cluelless to the huge irony of you posting “sure is a lot of words”. 😉
He is, man, 110% …
Russia “has the right to choose how to ensure its own security” including nuking the capital of Poland and Lithuania.
Or, maybe Russia goes directly to nuking Tel Aviv, London, NYC, D.C., and L.A.
Don’t get my hopes up!
Why use nukes when you can win by turning a valve?
Sorry to intrude with logic
155bcm down to 65 bcm(2021-2022 figures and 2023 is going to be lower). Logic says that is a large reduction.
Maybe someone turned a valve😉
Why do you believe this isn’t happening when there is loads of data available that confirms it?
Why do you also believe that 6b people have been injected, when logic dictates that it was impossible in the claimed timeframe?
6b x 2(jabs) is 12b. If you make 1 a second how many years would it take to make 12b?
Then there is the logistics of implementation. How?
Africa, India and China alone have around half the world’s population and there is no possibility that more than 30% of them have been poisoned. Then add in South America, South East Asia and that’s ⅔ of the world population with very little ability to enforce/enact these deadly measures.
Come on Eddy, they may have learned from the last time they tried to fool us with an imaginary pandemic and bought up the rest of the media, but they don’t have that kind of reach outside the western world. That’s why they are sending modular mRNA factories to these countries, although that will still fail, as these people have not been programmed since childhood and so can spot a liar very quickly. You know the kind of people, healthy gets jabbed, healthy child dies, they point the finger in the obvious direction, unlike the programmed. See the diffence?
The 1% will keep trying, but the centuries of inbreeding, the lying to self about entitlement and the lack of doing anything meaningful in their sad little lives, means you can be quite sure that everything they stick their rapey little fingers in, will eventually end up like them, a furcup.
I do wish my daughter would take my advice and go to Russia(or India, but they are lacking in FF). Maybe she will consider it more, when they make it compulsory to allow the most criminal organisations in modern history to inject with unknown substances. Only the fully programmed westerners would allow that without carefull consideration and carefull consideration would always result in refusal.
Cuz data and cnnbbc articles are not evidence (and as we know they fake everything)… if there is a war of this magnitude happening there should be endless clips of death and destruction .. we should be overwhelmed with video evidence.
We are not. We get plenty of fakery — CGI – and stock photos of machines launching missiles… next to nothing of actual battle.
What’s the data say – 400k Ukeys dead – that is just utter bullshit. It’s total nonsense.
So Puty is willing to nuke the world… but he’s not willing to turn the valve.
come the f789 on man…. in what Clown World would he not turn the valve before pumping out nukes
Duh
The DC “neocons” want to have a Russia vs Europe nuclear war. It would free Russia for neocon predation and kill many white Christians in Europe. A win win for the neocons. Russia has to be smart enough not to fall for it. To keep there eye on the true enemy and attack them directly. NOW
not to worry. I am sure there are several under sea vessels lurking off the US eastern seaboard sporting nuclear hardware targeted inland.
Yes, subs on both east and west coasts that can take out 50% of the GDP in under 10 mins. And the rest in 30 mins. Not to mention Sarmat II and globe spanning cruse missiles with high yield nukes.
Radar technologies are developing faster than sonars. U.S. Navy is testing a new radar pod that can detect submarines.
https://navalpost.com/how-do-aircraft-detect-submarines/
The U.S. Navy, in a break with traditional submarine detection, is working to replace sonar and magnetic detection with radar. The AN/APS-154 Advanced Airborne Sensor (AAS) will spot the invisible wakes left by submarines underwater, telltale clues that something large is lurking beneath the waves. The AAS will be carried by the P-8 Poseidon aircraft, which can then engage submarines with air-dropped anti-submarine torpedoes.
In signalling potentially major shifts in foreign policy following Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian hosting his Turkish counterpart Hakan Fidan on Sunday, Tehran Times, in an indepth analysis covers issues the FMs discussed.
“The main goal of Türkiye to normalize relations with Syria is to secure the borders of the two countries and pave the way for the return of Syrian refugees. Türkiye imagined that security could be established through cooperation with the United States on the Syria-Türkiye borders.
“Ankara unhappy with cooperation with the West, now has made a policy shift by seeking reproachment toward Damascus. Türkiye knows that with the involvement of Iran and Russia as the allies of Syria, the only solution is to heal the wounds with Damascus.”
also the article covers the recent “normalization of relations between Türkiye and Syria and the development of cooperation between Tehran, Riyadh, and Ankara, after a period of tense relations in the region”. Turkey moving towards a goal of trilateral cooperation (Iran, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia) stated in the framework of commercial, economic, and investment interests, to strengthen the strategic relations of the three countries.
tehrantimes.com/news/488742/Failure-of-the-Western-project-in-West-Asia
more peace breaking out. Someone ought to do something! Vicky!!
But it is peace on the other “side” from US hegemony.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/another-look-at-the-question-how-big-is-the-us-housing-bubble/
Chart Notes
Average hourly earnings are for production and nonsupervisory workers, not all workers. The data series for all workers does not go back far enough.
The most recent Case-Shiller data is for May 2023. The other numbers are through July.
Case-Shiller measure repeat sales of the same home over time. It is the most accurate measure because median and average prices do not factor amenities, the number of rooms, or quality of construction.
https://149905391.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Case-Shiller-Home-Price-vs-Hourly-Earnings-the-CPI-and-Rent-2023-07.png
House prices today are way too high today, any way Mish looks at the numbers.
Mass D….
“Schools must equip children
to have sexual partners”
– say the UN and WHO!
https://stopworldcontrol.com/children/
Stop World Control (https://stopworldcontrol.com/children/)
“Children should have sex partners” – The UN agenda to normalize pedophilia
The World Health Organization is instructing all schools worldwide to sexualize little children, as part of the agenda to norm…
Tranny Freaks and Pedos… that’s the zeitgeist… now why would they want to elevate and celebrate extreme deviancy?????
This is more than a little strange.
I suppose if nothing has value any more, people need to look for value in sex and temporary relationships. No one will have a stable enough life to get married and have a family.
I have been told that strange things happen at the time of collapses.
“As in the days of Noah”
Its gone way beyond coincidence.
THEY want to outrage and disgust normal healthy decent people to the point where they turn violent, turning their pitchforks into meat skewers, and then use the violence as a pretext for clamping down on everybody with even more extreme prejudice than usual.
The end game is a worldwide North Korean-type state with a boot on every face forever, and before anyone asks—Sadly, no; Kulm will not get his ancestral lands back.
Before there were lockdowns, there was the clampdown.
No man born with a living soul can be working for the clampdown.
A very insightful post Tim. It’s as if the Joker is in charge and he only wants one thing… chaos!
The US is running short of munitions to send to Ukraine, so this is the latest plan:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-arm-ukraine-toxic-depleted-uranium-munitions
Later, it says:
Hopefully, the shipment of DU can be blown up the way the shipment from UK was. Creating a DU cloud the blows into western Europe.
I hope not! Some of us happen to live in western Europe. Can you please keep your DU to yourselves. Maybe put it in toothpaste or something?
Depleted Uranium is unused nuclear fuel isn’t it?
Meanwhile, in the UK……
I have just heard that the refectory at my kids’ school is built of the collapsing concrete.
So that’s our entire local hospital and part of the local school.
It’s everywhere. In every public building.
I am sure that the collapsing concrete saved a lot of money at the time. Lots of “experts” endorsed its use.
They timed that concrete to collapse at the right time.
Recall the final scene of Utopia – carving the symbol of a rabbit on his chest… 2023 >> Year of the Rabbit.
And this video shows them constructing the stuff.
The sidewalks in the street
The concrete and the clay beneath my feet…..
I read an article in the Whole Earth Catalog. In it an entomologist at Oxford was eating in the dining hall and notice rot in the massive oak beam above his head. He went up to take sample and found the beam severely damaged.
Where could they possibly find massive oak beam to replace them in this day and age? They went to the university forester and asked if they had any thing that could be used. The forester said we have been wondering when you would come and ask. The trees for the replacements were planted 500 years ago and have been ready for some years now.
I so completely love that story. Kulm do you approve?
It makes me beyond sad to know that this foresight and planning is possible by humans but is a rare exception and not the rule.
Thanks for this Ed. Loved the sound of the story and that sent me searching. Here it is, as quoted in this article.
https://tmrichmond3.net/2018/08/17/the-beams-of-new-oxford-hall/
I love a good story, and this is one of my favorites. I first read it in Stewart Brand’s The Next Whole Earth Catalog. It was told to him by the anthropologist Gregory Bateson.
New College, Oxford, is of rather late foundation, hence the name. It was founded around the late 14th century. It has, like other colleges, a great dining hall with big oak beams across the top. These might be two feet square and forty-five feet long.
A century ago, so I am told, some busy entomologist went up into the roof of the dining hall with a penknife and poked at the beams and found that they were full of beetles. This was reported to the College Council, who met in some dismay, because they had no idea where they would get beams of that calibre nowadays.
One of the Junior Fellows stuck his neck out and suggested that there might be some oak on College lands. These colleges are endowed with pieces of land scattered across the country. So they called in the College Forester, who of course had not been near the college itself for some years, and asked about oaks. And he pulled his forelock and said, “Well sirs, we was wonderin’ when you’d be askin’.”
Upon further inquiry it was discovered that when the College was founded, a grove of oaks has been planted to replace the beams in the dining hall when they became beetly, because oak beams always become beetly in the end. This plan had been passed down from one Forester to the next for five hundred years. “You don’t cut them oaks. Them’s for the College Hall.”
Is this you norm? https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/stop-using-the-word-sustainability
It contains a number of hallmarks of idi-ocy.
Recycling and the circular economy are both unsustainable.
IT is now necessary to teach ordinary people that
1. All the wonders of future technology won’t be theirs
2. They will have no say on how the future progresses
3. Everything will be owned by the top 1%/0.1% or so, and nothing for them.
Kulm…I hate to say you may very well be right.. Late last night saw this on Public Television here in the USA
https://www.amazon.com/Nova-Emperors-Ghost-Army/dp/B00O9ZSJMI
Happy Reader
5.0 out of 5 stars Perfection Was Achieved Through Fear – The Story of an Amazing Tomb Complex
Reviewed in the United States on January 15, 2016
Verified Purchase
In 2013, I had the joy of seeing the traveling exhibit “China’s Terracotta Warriors”. A year later, Nova produced this hour-long episode on the 1st emperor’s burial complex. PBS crammed a lot of great information into this show.
First, it gives an abbreviated history of Qin Shi Huang, himself, pronounced chin shuh wahng. His name and dynasty – he took the throne in 246 B.C.E. – gave their name to the country of China. His home territory was in what is now north-west China. He conquered the lands to his East and South.
When he died, he went back to his homeland to be buried. As the narrator tells us, the terra cotta army is located a mile east of his tomb mound: “It stands guard between the emperor’s grave and the states he subjugated to the East.”
Commentators include Xiuzhen (Janice) Li (from the Terracotta Museum, China – TCA), Cao Wei (TCA), Marcos Martinon-Torres (University College London – UCL), Jonathan Clements (historian), Andrew Bevan (UCL), Mike Loades (military historian) and Andy Lacey (master metal forger).
These participants show us how the terracotta figures were hand-manufactured and assembled. We learn how Qin was a tyrant known for cruelty: “Perfection was achieved through fear.” They analyze and recreate the state-of-the-art bronze weapons the ghost army held. As Torre says: “These are freshly made weapons delivered directly to the Terracotta Army. I think it’s obvious these are not representations for religious purposes. These are real lethal weapons made to kill.” Quin had amazing wealth to be able to “waste” so many real weapons by burying them in a tomb.
The part of the documentary that struck me was the harsh organized terror society which was in place to make it possible.
Hoards of indebted peasants were enslaved to provide the grunt labor..
Craftsman were organized into cells and expected to police one another to ensure work output under a lead..creating paranoid and fear.
To ensure accountability each initialed their product …
For an average Joe it must of been a short brutal life
I saw the Terracotta Warriors in its museum in Xian on my trip to China in 2011. It is truly amazing!
I can believe that making these soldiers took a huge amount of labor.
It sounds like the system of government providing a great deal of control of the actions of individuals started very long ago.
idle hands are the devil’s playground or some such.
Man seems to need to be part of something larger than himself.
Reading “The Fourth Turning” in-between “The Ancient City.” Recommend both for a broad understanding. Regarding the Fourth, 2030-2035 seems to be an inflection point, fwiw.
Dennis L.
Elysium!
Or North Korea!
Let’s give the North Koreans a clap for being Number One in something.
The most striking feature of the data for North Korea in both the overall number of work-related deaths and in the number who suffered death from stroke as a result of overwork is that the number went from one of the worst in the world to decisively the worst of all UN member states. In almost every other country in the world over the period of this study, the death rate from workplace disease and injury declined.
The comparison of the UN numbers for North Korea and South Korea is also particularly stark. North Korea’s total workplace deaths per 100,000 went from 56.2 in 2000 to 79.5 in 2016. That is in stunning contrast with South Korea. In 2000, North Korea had less than twice the number of deaths per 100,000 as South Korea, but by 2016, North Korea had a death rate that was four times the rate of South Korea—79.5 deaths per 100,000 in North Korea compared with 20.6 in South Korea.
The same pattern of numbers for the two Koreas was even more dramatic with regard to deaths from stroke attributed to working long hours. Deaths from overwork in North Korea increased by over 60 percent from 2000 to 2016. South Korea’s deaths over that same period dropped from 8.9 to 3.9—a reduction of well over half. In 2000, North Korea’s rate was twice that of South Korea; in 2016, it had increased to seven times that of South Korea.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/un-health-and-labor-organizations-rank-north-korea-worst-work-related-disease-and-injury
North Korea = Animal Farm in excelsis!
Fast Eddie….. this post is for you Bro….burn, baby, burn..I 💗 Coal…
China Coal Giant ‘Seizing’ Window of Opportunity for New Plants
Shenhua is building 11.75 GW of thermal power generation
Experts fear China’s coal build-out threatens climate goals
By Bloomberg News
September 3, 2023 at 10:12 PM EDT
China’s biggest coal company said it is “seizing” the opportunity to build more fossil fuel power plants before 2025 as the government prioritizes energy security after a series of power shortages.
China Shenhua Energy Co. has 11.75 gigawatts of coal and gas generation under construction and is reviewing previously postponed and suspended projects to see which can be revived under current conditions, General Manager Xu Mingjun said at a briefing on Friday. The company is also renovating and expanding existing plants and expects to put the new projects into operation by 2025, he said.
Thank You, Obamie…it would have been approved without your Climate Agreement👍
Climate is not a priority for anyone other than a few rich countries, trying to cover up energy problems.
And if we really are changing the climate? CA seem to be seeing extremes, corn is done doing whatever corn does.
It is going to be bumpy.
Dennis L.
The U.S. is no longer world’s leading exporter of corn
Meghan McCarty Carino
Aug 31, 2023
Despite losing market share to Brazil, U.S. growers are still selling more corn in absolute terms. Stefani Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
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After more than half a century in which the United States boasted a near-lock on being the world’s leading exporter of corn, the distinction has shifted to Brazil. That’s according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data for the year that ended Thursday.
The reordering of the corn hierarchy follows a similar erosion of U.S. dominance in exports of other staple commodities, like wheat and soybeans, over the last decade or so.
Corn is still America’s biggest crop. It’s also a link to Indigenous traditions, a symbol of the country’s productivity and prosperity, and a source of homegrown pride.
“Actually, the town where I’m at has a Sweet Corn Festival and different events that center around corn,” said Krista Swanson, the lead economist for the National Corn Growers Association and a corn farmer in Illinois.
The past year has thrown U.S. growers a few curveballs, she said. “The crop that we produced in the United States was reduced by drought and was lower than, you know, where it would have been otherwise.”
Please note, this is a guess:
I suspect much agriculture in the US on not profitable as practiced. I see Amish who appear to live better than local farmers, they have Sunday off.
Additionally, industrial agriculture does not appear to be good for the soil.
Working on this, last real project of my lifetime. It is not that complex and accounting is part of it; too much accounting in the US is tax accounting which distorts profits and losses ignoring the underlying business. This would appear to be the case with windmills, etc.
Dennis L.
Surely the Green Grooopies on OFW must find it odd… that Greta remains silent … as China continues to roll out more coal fired power plants.
Now why would that be Green Groopies?
Could it be that this is all a massive charade… just like the Moon landings?
Could it be that ya’ll are being … played???
Green Grooopies will never admit they’ve been played.. cuz they live in a Clown World
UKR says that its military production facilities are going to ‘boom’.
Alex is in a park in Athens today.
If things aren’t going well for Ukraine in the war, the approach is to fire the Defense Minister. Perhaps, someone else will have a better idea.
(Al Arabya)
“Ukraine’s Zelenskyy nominates first Muslim defense minister amid ongoing war”
https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2023/09/03/Ukraine-s-Zelenskyy-moves-to-replace-wartime-defense-minister
And he just nominated Kim Kardashian as the minister of finance.. to completely mock those who believe this is real
Ukraine is asking EU to send back the young fled deserters. They need cannon fodder after 400.000 deaths. Average survival time 10 hours. The EU is willing to help..!
400,000 deaths hahahahaha… 8x the American deaths in over a decade in The Nam… hahahahahahahaha
As if.
Where are all the clips?
It amazes me how easy it is for the PR Team to play humans… and it shouldn’t …
Breaking News! 12,549 Ukeys killed in a massive battle outside Kiev…
https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/b/world-war-cartoon-military-vehicle-battlefield-vector-illustration-eps-96910787.jpg
The MSM says half Ukraine’s Jewish population has left. Will all Jews age 17 to 70 be extradited from EU, Israel, US? Will they be drafted?
In this article, energy supplies are conflated with energy production. These are not the same thing. Energy supplies should really be about total energy reserves. The production and sale of energy sources depends on many factors, especially lately. Energy is not constrained in its real sense simply because trading is limited for various reasons.
The fuel of the future is coal. Not coal used in its current sold state, but liquified coal. Coal can be liquified to produce gasoline , diesel and jet fuel. These processes were developed in the early part of the 20th century. The best-known process is Fischer–Tropsch synthesis (FT), named after the inventors Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch from the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute in the 1920s.[3] The FT synthesis is the basis for indirect coal liquefaction (ICL) technology. Friedrich Bergius, also a German chemist, invented direct coal liquefaction (DCL) as a way to convert lignite into synthetic oil in 1913. There have been many newer and more efficient processes developed since then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction
Coal is by far the largest sustainable fossil fuel source. We have 139 years worth of coal reserves. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/years-of-fossil-fuel-reserves-left
In the future, when prices get to the point of making it affordable, huge mines will have on-site liquefaction plants producing liquid fuels which can then be transported by low-cost pipelines. This will take some large investments, but when investments are absolutely needed, such as in wars, ways are always found.
The US has the largest reserves, amounting to 24 percent of world total. https://www.mining-technology.com/features/feature-the-worlds-biggest-coal-reserves-by-country/
I am sorry if I confused you with the words “energy supplies.” I am dealing with a situation in which there are some equalities involved. Worldwide, energy production is very close to energy consumption, of any kind, if measure things at the same point. Also, total imports are very close to total exports. I chose the word “supplies” to have to work around saying that at the aggregate level I was looking at, the amounts should be about the same for imports or exports; also for production or consumption.
As far as I am concerned, the “years of reserves” numbers are close to nonsense. We really don’t know how many years of reserves are available. It depends on what price is affordable by customers using food and other goods produced with these energy reserves, and what price is needed by those extracting the fuel.
I do agree that coal is likely to last longer than natural gas or oil, but I am doubtful that coal can be extracted in quantity by countries that are currently very dependent on oil and natural gas, such as the US, and the countries of Europe.
Quite a bit of the US’s coal reserves are in Alaska, as I understand the situation. A warmer climate would make these reserves more accessible.
At some point, I would not be at all surprised if these coal resources are extracted. The earth’s ecosystem is a dissipative structure, after all. But I am doubtful that the are accessible to the current US economy.
but then we run into co2 release—even if the liquefaction process could somehow be made ‘clean’
carbon capture, at present, consumes even more energy in its process.
then we move onto the next problem—use.
Even if 139 year of coal is available for conversion—the problem arises on what to do with it.
Oil is useless unless/until it is used. So means has to be found for that use.
Doing what?—Transportation?, Plastics? Medicines? Electricity?
But those uses require additional elements and compounds. You cannot produce commercial electricity without numerous add-ons of other materials, most of which will run into supply problems over the next 20-50 years, lets alone 139 years.
you cannot have transportation without wheels and roads—no matter how much oil is available.
plastic. of itself, has no use except in conjunction with something else–eg bricks. —but bricks cannot be made without heat. The components in a plastic tv set are too numerous to mention.
Just my two-pennorth—or 2 cents worth.
True. That’s why Legoland has been made the new capital of Denmark. It’s the perfect green solution.
Problems are made to be overcome, Norman. Where would humanity be without challenges?
Cheer up, I’ve found you the perfect tee-shirt!
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fce855763-3053-423a-b6d5-1f6ca53335fe_600x600.jpeg
Anyone who believes humans are causing GW — has two options:
1. Relocate to the Amazon and live with a carbon neutral tribe.
2. Take a semi automatic and multiple clips … gun down as many people as possible then shoot yourself in the head.
more conspiromania tim?
offer something in response to my points—just one will do. I’ve given you several to choose from
I beg your pardon, Norman. I was unaware that you had made any points. Hence, my answer was a general one.
But how’s this?
I may be oversimplifying your view here, but you seem to be implying that if it hasn’t been done yet, it will never be done, or that if it hasn’t been invented yet, it will never be invented, or that if a new problem occurs, it will never be overcome.
Yet history is replete with instances of new things being done, new things being invented, and new problems being overcome. So you are betting against a winning streak that has continued for hundreds of thousands of years continuing for another 139 years.
knot at all tim—knot at all
but if you care to pause midway in your leap into the pit of conclusion—you will, i think, agree with me that almost all (if not all) the physical problems that humankind has risen beyond, during our past history, has been through the application of greater and greater inputs of (cheap surplus) energy—in all its forms,
the computer that you sit at right now, has been the culmination of that input—to give you just one example— plentiful food supply is another—powered transport is another—there are thousands more–even fake moonflights involved the energy input of thousands of fellow hoaxers.
Henry Ford was a genius…….but without cheap oil coal and iron he would have stayed on the farm–and roads would have remained dirt tracks.
Now we have arrived at the point where cheap surplus energy is no longer available.
But we look back in history—and see what has been accomplished—a lot, i grant ypu.
But the unthinkers among us remain convinced we can go on —ad infinitum.
That ”technology” will replace cheap energy.
well—i’d be delighted to be shown in error, but the doors of physics are fast closing tim—without cheap surplus fuels, we revert to the economics of the horse and cart…if we are lucky.
You may be convinced we can mine the moons of Saturn. I am not.
And it has not continued for hundreds of thousands of years, it has been 323 years and about 8 months, to be precise.
Just being realistic—that’s all me ol mate.
I recognize that a lot of energy has gone into me and my computer, and into you and yours.
But I also recognize that a lot of technological advances have gone into those computers too.
How did we get all the cheap affordable surplus energy that allows us to build and run computers and keep all the millions of not terribly useful people like you and me living affluent lifestyles?
Well, I’ll tell you, since you don’t seem to have grasped it yet.
We got all that energy thanks to technological advances.
This has been going on since—how long shall we surmise—oh yes—since time immemorial. We literally can’t remember how long it’s been going on.
You seem to think this process of advances in technology liberating more and cheaper surplus energy cannot go on much longer, and you might be correct. But you can’t know for sure for a number of reasons.
1. We know the earth is a finite world, but in terms of potentially accessible energy sources (both kinds and amounts), we don’t know how finite.
2. We know that technology will continue to advance, but we don’t know how or in which directions it will go.
3. We know it’s difficult to set up space-based material and energy harvesting systems, but we don’t know how difficult. (Keith knows a lot about this subject, and while he’s probably over-optimistic, we don’t know for sure that this is the case.)
4. We know that one of the ways in which technology will advance will be through gains in efficiency. But we don’t know how far or how fast.
5. We know that Jevons paradox is still operating, but this in itself tells us that we haven’t reached hard limits yet.
6. We know the powers that be are lying or deceiving us, but we down what they are lying to us about.
7. Smarter technology may allow us to keep getting a bigger and bigger bang for the same buck. How long this will go on is anyone’s guess?
8. Rapid depopulation of the middle and working classes in the West may give the East and the South and the Oligarchs a much desired breather in the current game of Globalization Musical Chairs. Indeed, that may be the main point of the COVID Jab Fest? Just sayin’.
I’ve just woken up and my brain isn’t working properly yet, so I’ll stop here for now.
“while he’s probably over-optimistic”
Short term, next decade or so I rather doubt power satellites will happen. It not the engineering that holds us back, but the scale of the project, which is like a war.
Longer term, I suspect the vast majority of humans (physical or uploads) will move into space We seem to have an example of this in the Tabby’s and the 24 others in that cluster.
In Germany, there is a lot of lignite available in open-pit mining. It causes a lot of environmental damages, though, that’s the reason for the political decision not to use it. There is also some hard coal left. Production of this hard coal requires a lot of efforts as the easy to obtain parts are gone and the reserves are very deep underground.
While the lignite reserves probably could be produced with technology of the 19th century, the hard coal reserves probably couldn’t. Remember that in the history of mining such things like having reliable ropes or lights or air provision or pumps for groundwater had been a problem.
In the moment the economy desintegrates the supply lines for such equipment will fail, it is also a question of effects of scale, so available technology will be “of lower complexity”.
Forcasts like, the xx-reserves will deliver another 139 years, 3 days, 5 hours and 25 seconds rely on the availability of technology and also of being able to sell and deliver the products. It is very questionable, that let’s say lignite from Eastern Germany could be delivered to Munich without electricity and fuels. Now you will say, okay then we have to start to build coal power plants and liquefying production plants before electricity and fuels and supply chains are gone, to keep up an industrial center that could provide itself! I would agree to that! Does that also include steel production and smartphone production or shall we import this from Australia and Taiwan..?
As you can see, things get very quickly complicated!
A forecast of 139 years and 22 seconds does not include the replacement of crude oil by coal and neither additional electricity generation. In the moment one of the other energy sources fail, the 139 years will shrink to 50 years, of course. But it might also be only 0 years, because the chips in the lorries fail and the motors cannot be made working without and there is no replacement from Taiwan. Or the highly efficient and complex engines cannot be made run on liquefied coal!
To be fair… the smartphones would be superfluous. A 1950s standard of living would be fine thanks.
Apart from the chilblains in the UK, which I hear are back again in any case, I agree with you. The 1950s rocked!
chilblains?!
https://search.yahoo.com/search?p=chilblains+pictures&fr=yfp-t-s&fr2=p%3Afp%2Cm%3Asa%2Cct%3Asa%2Ckt%3Anone&ei=UTF-8&fp=1
“Chilblains, also known as pernio, are small patches of inflamed skin. They develop after exposure to air that’s cold or damp but not freezing. Usually, chilblains form on your fingers or toes…”
oh yes, UK = cold and damp.
got it.
Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow
Jacob Bogage, (c) 2023, The Washington Post
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/home-insurers-cut-natural-disasters-150846840.html
Major insurers say they will cut out damage caused by hurricanes, wind and hail from policies underwriting property along coastlines and in wildfire country, according to a voluntary survey conducted by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, a group of state officials that regulates rates and policy forms.
Insurance providers are also more willing to drop existing policies in some locales as they become more vulnerable to natural disasters. Most home insurance coverages are annual terms, so providers are not bound to them for more than one year.
That means individuals and families in places once considered safe from natural catastrophes could lose crucial insurance protections while their natural disaster exposure expands or intensifies as global temperatures rise.
“The same risks that are making insurance more important are making it harder to get,” Carolyn Kousky, associate vice president at the Environmental Defense Fund and nonresident scholar at the Insurance Information Institute, told The Washington Post
The companies mentioned those policy changes as part of previously unreported responses to the regulatory group’s survey. The survey was distributed in 2022 by 15 states and received responses – some sent as recently as last month – from companies covering 80 percent of the U.S. insurance market.
Allstate said its climate risk mitigation strategy would include “limiting new [auto and property] business . . . in areas most exposed to hurricanes” and “implementing tropical cyclone and/or wind/hail deductibles or exclusions where appropriate.”
Nationwide has already pulled back in certain areas. The company said that in 2020, it “reduced exposure levels in some of the highest hazard wildland urban interface areas in California.”
In its response to the regulators’ survey, Nationwide said it no longer underwrites coverage for “properties within a certain distance to the coastline” because of hurricane potential..
….Representatives from Allstate and Erie declined to comment. Berkshire Hathaway and Nationwide did not respond to requests for comment.
And fike a claim and it is rejected or they give you a low ball offer…hire a lawyer…there are plenty…go through litigation and wait and wait…
Happens all the time here in South Florida…
Get a sett,ement and try to renew policy….good luck with that
People have increasingly built in storm-prone areas. Insurance departments have held insurance rates too low, because they want to encourage this building. Eventually, this problem has to be resolved by insurers. They will not offer coverage, if the problem is too bad.
I know that quite a few years back, some insurers added subsidiaries whose coverage was restricted to Florida (or perhaps some other state). The plan was that if the losses got too bad, that company could go bankrupt, without bringing down the whole larger insurance company.
Picked this up recently, a paraphrase:
“The cosmos is optimized for technological evolution.”
Become an economist for a bit and assume it is true.
1. If one is part of a social group not optimized for technology, there will be great pain and protest.
2. Technologically we are far more advanced in the last twenty years than the previous thousands although physics according to some has not made much progress in fifty years. Now, see point 1.
3. And the piece de resistance, that implies the future is in the stars, or more immediately the solar system.
We have optimized our technology to utilize the resources of our earth, they are close to exhaustion, but Starship waits in the wings. My thesis: we are meant to be here, we are part of the fabric of the universe, they have thought of something and it launches soon along with AI.
Picked this idea up from Jeff Shainline, Lex Fridman. He references two papers about two hours in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwueqdgIvq4
Earlier he mentions the coincidence of a number of parameters in physics which make the whole universe as we understand it work, too many coincidences for chance. Others are beginning this also, or perhaps one could say, “The undeath of God.” Good riddance to Nietzsche and all his horrible nihilism along with turgid prose.
I submit we are meant to be here and so it will be. Earth is our spaceship, it was meant to get us this far and now we are meant to move forward, move pollution out of our spaceship. Think of the past phase as lighting a fire in one’s kitchen to roast a marshmallow; first step, spiff up the kitchen.
It is going to be bumpy, but the light at the end of tunnel is not a train, it is enlightenment. Couldn’t resist that one.
Dennis L.
Dennis
there’s a very simple law:
Cheap surplus energy allowed us to have technology
Technology will not allow us to have cheap surplus energy.
If I’m wrong on the above—no one will be more pleased than me, but explain how I’m wrong.
That is a good way of putting the problem:
Yes it is difficult to find out how much supercomputers and AI consume in terms of watts etc…
Why is so impossible for “almost” everyone to understand this?
Its not a concept requiring IQ numbers above 100
oh yeah……right,….,sorry I brought it up.
I wonder what norm’s IQ is… If each point is an inch I bet I can jump higher than his IQ …
“Technology will not allow”
Every living thing is an example of atom by atom construction. It is an example of nanotechnology just the same as birds were an example of heavier than air flight. Any argument that nanotechnology is not possible has to figure out why living thing can exist.
Now, if you have nanotechnology and the general ability to make things to atomic specification, there is no reason you can’t pave over deserts with PV. Since no or very little human labor is required, energy from such sources, even with storage should be inexpensive.
Agreed. Also, “we are meant to be here…”, we are here by chance and good fortune and that’s OK.
How do you know we are here by chance?
Simple question: where did the first ribosome come from? Chance? Really bad bet I think.
Dennis L.
that’s not how chance works.
since there now are ribosomes, if they appeared by chance, then no matter what you think of how improbable the “long odds” were, the bet paid off.
since evolution is completely woven throughout the fabric of the universe, it’s obvious to me that ribosomes “emerged” through the process of evolution.
I would bet on it.
It is as if this hole was designed for me said the puddle.
Cheap energy allowed us to build Starship, there is free energy in space for all industrial processes which will be adapted to space, e.g. use of pure metals, not ores(stars to not make ores). Need some methane for starship, scoop it up on Titan. There is your technology making cheap surplus energy and keeping the waste heat where it belongs, space is big enough for all of us(that is a cheap joke, man stays on earth, not built for space, but that is too a prediction.)
Earth reverts to biology, it is designed for biology, we continue our voyage through space and through knowledge; we learn more technology because it is what the fabric of the universe wants, it provided a convenient garbage dump, Jupiter.
We don’t know the future and going back to the recent past, it would have been impossible to see the future. Ken Olson, inventor of Digital thought there would be no need for personal computers, they eclipsed his company in number and power. He did not see the future, neither do we.
Some results of technology will be and are terrible, some are rather remarkable. We don’t know the future and we can’t predict it with past data. This is the graph through the points problem, it only works for known data, once it is beyond the data set, it is a guess.
We made it through a bottleneck, we are going to do it again.
Dennis L.
Dennis
”allowed us to build starship”—is past tense, we have done no such thing
what we’ve done use repurposed 12thc chinese technology to build big fireworks
No one is going to mine Titan
the technology to do it is earth based—just giant fireworks,
Nothing else exists and we do not have the means to make it otherwise.—nothing more
Norm,
Starship has already launched, now it needs to launch to orbit, then it needs to land. Patience grasshopper, it will work or if not, all the doom and gloom here will become our future and it will not be easy for anyone.
I would run on a platform of hope and support technologies we know the science of and advance the engineering
Not sure how one sells total nihilism, I see no downside risk.
Dennis L.
Dennis
You are losing me
Starship is already launched—now it needs to be launched to orbit
Not that old chestnut again, Norman.
I thought I had thoroughly debunked and buried your very simplistic law last time, but clearly you and some other characters are not convinced.
Let me try to explain this in words simple enough for everyone likely to be reading this to understand, while avoiding the sin of being simplistic.
The relationship between surplus energy and technology is complex and interdependent. Both factors have influenced and enabled each other in a cyclical manner throughout human history.
Surplus energy and technology have influenced and enabled each other in a reciprocal manner throughout history.
Technological advances have allowed humans to access and utilize energy resources more effectively, allowing surplus energy to be generated more cheaply, while at the same time the availability of increasingly cheap surplus energy has facilitated the development and proliferation of increasingly advanced technologies.
You are wrong to think that technology will not allow us to have cheap surplus energy. The ludicrously cheap surplus energy you are indulging in today is the result of a long succession of technological advances going all the way back to the invention of fire. And once fire was mastered, the long succession of technological advances was made possible by the increasing amount of surplus energy. So rejoice and be pleased.
I wouldn’t call you a moreon, but if you can’t recognize that technology is a major factor influencing the cheapness of surplus energy, and that without technology we would have no surplus energy whatsoever, you really are not that smart.
tim
technolgy has allowed us to access more oil coal and gas, and thus made it cheap—for now—
what technology hasnt done, is create MORE oil coal and gas
it has just allowed us to burn more of it, at a faster rate
that has fed the delusion that applying more ”technology” will constantly increase to supplies of fuel available.—and continue to produce/invent everything reliant on cheap oil
the first oilwells were 80ft deep—the limit of technology in 1859
now they go 5 miles down—there’s oil—but not ”more” oil. No doubt you will explain differently
i don’t profess to be smart—but even the dim light of my 1 watt brain-bulb tells me that just aint so.
Maybe you have a 2 watt light in there—do explain where I’m wrong–what major part of our economic system does not rely on fossil fuels.
“economic system does not rely ”
The satellites on which the entire $450 B space industry are powered by sunlight. Every single one of them.
What can I say, Norman, but “You just don’t get it”?
I could try to explain further, but it would be like talking to a brick wall.
A couple of hundred years ago, The Reverend Thomas Malthus argued that human population has a natural tendency to increase rapidly, and unless constrained by preventive or positive checks, it will exceed the capacity of the environment to support it. He was convinced that grinding and what we would now term Dickensian poverty was the natural and inevitable state of mankind, who we now call peoplekind.
Malthus’s logic was impeccable, but his pessimism has not been born out even 189 years after his death. He died suddenly and unexpectedly from a heart attack, by the way. Had he been around today, and in a country with a decent health service (not the UK, obviously), he could have lived to a much riper old age.
But to get back to the point, why haven’t Malthus’s dire predictions come to pass yet, despite his insight into the population issue?
Let me answer that, as you haven’t a clue. The predictions haven’t come to pass yet because of incremental advances in technology invented by people smarter than you, me and Malthus, and increasing amounts of cheap surplus energy made available by these same advances in technology. There are other important factors too, such as free enterprise, education, competition, a daredevil, can-do attitude, and good clean living. But let’s leave them to one side for the moment.
The Reverend Malthus was short-sighted and wore spectacles. He was also short-sighted with respect to the future. He was unable to see beyond the present and imagine that anything that didn’t exist in his own time would make a scrape of difference to the state of the world in future. And yet, such unimagined innovations totally transformed the world and helped lift the poorest of the poor out of absolute poverty while also permitting the global population to expand to eight times what it was in his time.
Malthus would have been chuffed, flabbergasted, shocked and awed, because he never saw any of that coming.
In the same way as Malthus, you are totally clueless about the technological changes ahead and how they are going to transform human life, and if you were to be transported to the Earth in the year 2222, you would be positively absolutely gobsmacked.
The predictions haven’t come to pass yet because of incremental advances in technology invented by people smarter than you, me and Malthus,
I am not sure we want to refer to people who drove us into this massive overshoot… and extinction … smart
Tim
Try not to divide hairs into 32nd’s to prove a point
Mennonites in Russia are pretty well covered in this link, if there are any, they appear to be nowhere near the benign lifestye of the USA group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Mennonites
A brief clip from above
The Russian Mennonites (German: Russlandmennoniten [lit. “Russia Mennonites”, i.e., Mennonites of or from the Russian Empire], occasionally Ukrainian Mennonites[1][2][3]) are a group of Mennonites who are the descendants of Dutch Anabaptists who settled in the Vistula delta in West Prussia for about 250 years and established colonies in the Russian Empire (present-day Ukraine and Russia’s Volga region, Orenburg Governorate, and Western Siberia) beginning in 1789. Since the late 19th century, many of them have emigrated to countries which are located throughout the Western Hemisphere. The rest of them were forcibly relocated, so very few of their descendants currently live in the locations of the original colonies. Russian Mennonites are traditionally multilingual but Plautdietsch (Mennonite Low German) is their first language as well as their lingua franca. In 2014, there were several hundred thousand Russian Mennonites: about 200,000 live in Germany, 74,122 live in Mexico,[4] 70,000 in Bolivia, 40,000 live in Paraguay, 10,000 live in Belize, tens of thousands of them live in Canada and the US, and a few thousand live in Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil.
The term “Russian Mennonite” refers to the country which they resided in before their immigration to the Americas rather than their ethnic heritage.[5] The term “Low-German Mennonites” is also used in order to avoid this conflation.[6]
There are still Mennonites living in Russia, although it’s true that most of those who used to live there emigrated to pastures new.
But there are still some there. They suffered greatly under Stalin, and their numbers in the USSR declined. But things improved under Stalin’s successors, and even today there are some who follow the traditional lifestyle.
Incidentally, a lot of the Russian Mennonites migrated to there from Germany to escape the persecution or other harsh conditions they faced in that part of the world during the seventeenth century. Oppression motivates migration as a general rule.
And a lot of Mennonites everywhere abandoned their Mennonite lifestyle and became absorbed by the local Borg, becoming normies in Russia, Germany, America, wherever they moved to. For many people, it’s easier to conform and comply than to resist and defy.
I’m with Dennis on this one. There has been plenty of persecution, coercion and harassment going on in the USA, and by some accounts, it’s still going on. And my crystal ball tells me there is much more to come. There’s no call for you to get all snooty and imply that the US is somehow morally superior to Russia or to Iran. What’s the point of trying to make such comparisons? All you are doing is saying “My moral yardstick is more moral than yours!”
Isn’t it likely that the elements of the universe evolved to fit their environment? Just as we did?
Army officer to Spike Milligan: You! What are you doing THERE?
Spike: Everybody’s got to be SOMEWHERE!
========================================
True, Spike. It’s one of the unspoken laws of physics.
Zemi, elements of the universe are the environment.
We really don’t know as much as we think, but for the short period we have been extant, we have come a long way, patience grasshopper.
Dennis L.
“Zemi, elements of the universe are the environment.”
SOME elements are. But which were not, originally? We’re back to chicken and egg, and your suppositions are therefore too simplistic.
Zemi,
I submit all suppositions are simplistic, our models to date start with axioms and build on them. A house starts with a foundation, not a roof.
Dennis L.
Except that YOU built the roof first and worked backwards. You have put the cart before the horse.
I admire your persistent optimism Dennis, especially since you choose to express it here of all places!
That said, the placing of all your eggs in one basket, namely the Starship system, which is as yet unproven technology, smacks of religious faith in the latest scheme to keep people from losing their faith… if you catch my drift.
Even if successful, the Starship system and everything that would unfold from there (space habitats, fast priority transportation of goods on Earth, resource mining off planet) reminds me of tendrils from a fungal colony reaching out to new territory which on the surface would fit your optimistic take on things, but if we observe what happens in nature and map that behavior onto human activity I would suggest that most of the tendrils die off as they are unable to sustain themselves for long and if one does manage to take hold in virgin territory (because all the components required are available in exactly the right quantities at the right time) the original colony is likely to shrivel up and die much as happens with old cities and developments on Earth.
That’s just the way I see things unfolding.
How much has COVID-19 influenced these charts?
I see many of them have a sharp “blip” in them, when much of commerce was shut down. Have we fully recovered from that yet?
Regarding conspiracies… there’s too many people involved. I think what most people call “conspiracy” is very simply lots of people, operating individually in what they think is their best interest.
Very convenient for the moneyed interests is that, if the left is divided-up over “getting the jab” or not, they aren’t as effective in battling climate change, poverty, discrimination, etc. But is that a true “conspiracy?”
“If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don’t have to worry about the answers.” — Thomas Pynchon
There was a big downward shift in 2020. This can be interpreted in many ways. The world had a big financial problem, looking like it would push us into something like the Great Recession again. The world had a huge energy problem, with oil production seeming to have hit a peak in 2018, and oil imports reached a peak a little before then.
There is considerable evidence that the illness that caused covid was directly or indirectly the result of bioweapon research undertaken by the military operations of a number of countries around the world, including the US, Canada, France, Italy, and Australia. US efforts had been shifted to China a few years ago, after the US congress declared the US efforts to be too risky. No one can pin blame on any one country because too many countries funded the research and participated.
The strange shutdowns make little sense based on approaches used to handle epidemics in the past. The shutdown in the US was overseen by the US military. As a result of the shutdowns, a huge amount of debt could be infused into the economy. The use of oil, particularly as jet fuel, dropped significantly. The financial benefit of the shutdowns still partially continues, with student loan repayment still not having restarted, and some other kinds of subsidies not entirely gone away.
As I see the situation, our real problem is an energy shortage with an overlaid financial problem (including inflation and bank problems). In fact, that is China’s problem, right now, as well. Covid, and the vaccine responses, are cover for the real problems that are occurring. The focus on climate change, wind turbines, solar panels, and EVs are all covers for the real problem. The real problem has not gone away. It is lying in wait.
Lying in wait….
I have this image of Super Snatch SINdy… lurking behind the Dumpster (out back)… waiting for a drunken punter to take a wrong turn… SSS leaps upon him flashing her fester… before he knows it the poor bugger is ravaged and his pockets picked clean… then norm comes along and in his new role and Geriatric P.impster (cuz he can no longer perform the role of john due to vax damage to his vascularity)… collects his 10%
Couldn’t agree more. Excellent comment. The next question is… how long can they keep pulling the wool over our eyes before the critical underpinnings of the economy start flying apart in all directions all at once?
“NOTICE: Due to health issues, the Directors have voted to sell the farm and to wind up the cooperative.”
care to elaborate on this alternative-to-BAU failure?
You Will Never See Cash Ever Again 2,927 Bank Branches Closing Doors Forever
Michael Cowan
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3Y6netqxE_c
@Vicos
8 hours ago
Everything has been moving online for 25 years. No different than brick and mortar stores closing. If most people conduct business online, why would they keep their branches open?
@craigsexton979
8 hours ago
Not everybody likes or wants to embrace online crap.Bring back the good old days where people knew how to talk to one another, where phones weren’t the obsession t
Seems we are in a period of transition, whether we like it or not..
Michael also mentions many gold and silver dealers bank accounts are being closed without notice and many on YouTube have validated that…
Something is up…hold on..
MORE Coin Shop Owners Bank Accounts Being CLOSED! VERY Concerning!
38,867 views · 6 days ago#coinshop #bankaccount #banking
Keeps Happening! Another Local Coin Shop owner has had his Bank Account CLOSED without warning…
Today we’re speaking with Scott from @goldsilverstackers1 on YouTube, which is also a Local Coin Shop owner! Just like what happened to @Coinhuskers earlier this year, he had his Bank Accounts CLOSED, without warning and via a Letter in the Mail!
This is a trend that isn’t just continuing, but appears to even be accelerating! Do Banks just not want to deal with Coin Shop owners
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7nYHLR0igoY&t=718s&pp=ygUMQmFuayBhY2NvdW50
Suppose it can also to cryptocurrency and Bitcoin if needed later
Avoiding handling money and coins makes it possible to do everything long-distance over the internet, with practically no employees.
It also makes it possible for governments to control what people can spend.
“It also makes it possible for governments to control what people can spend.“
It also allows governments to control what you say and do as well. When the government controls your money they can turn your access off to it with the flip of a switch if you refuse to do what they say.
If they say you must take a Covid vaccine and you say no, they can deny you access to your money. If you decide to partake in government protests, they can turn off access to your money. If they want you to live in a certain area or zone and you travel outside that area, they can do the same.
In Florida, the Governor and several State Senators want to create a Bill that bans CBDC’s in our State.
Florida may have trouble with a lot of people from other states wanting to move in. Or other states will take up the same idea.
Hopefully other States will follow Florida’s lead.
Governments want to move towards digital cash for all the wrong reasons and it is why in 2024 we may see cashed banned and CBDC’s introduced.
Pareto Principle came forth during the industrial age. The Type I age is not going to be capitalistic or industrial, but something else.
Dennis L. thinks profits are important. Ancient kings didn’t care too much about profits = since everything was owned by them, why care about profit?
The world’s resources owned by very few parties would have no regulations, since the owner will do everything according to his whim.
With no need to worry about the workers’ welfare, or treat them well (if one dies there are plenty of replacements) , an ancap, top heavy, zero regard to the poor policy with nothing for the 19% would advance civilization farther since the overhead for the 19% is saved.
I can’t wait to see an uprising that specifically targets narcissistic elitist wa–kers such as yourself. It would be an absolute joy to watch. Rivers of blood and all that. What a bunch of inbred toss—pots you are! And guess what… we’ll manage perfectly well without your aristocratic a–ss pontificating day in and day out about how superior you are to the rest of the species when all you did was cheat, lie, usurp, and mur–der your way to the “top” which is of course arbitrary depending on how you look at things. You are nothing but selfish arrogant posh tw—ats that got lucky once. I doubt you’ll be so lucky this time.
“German Electricity Imports Hit New Record As Nuclear Phase-Out Increases Production Cost“
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/german-electricity-imports-hit-new-record-nuclear-phase-out-increases-production-cost
Some religions work, some do not. Green energy seems to have issues when applied to the current infrastructure. Some religions have staying power, some fade and are only memories.
Energy in space is free, pollution is space is not a problem, safety in space is not a problem other than messing up depreciation rates.
A new religion might be to look up, and look forward rather than backward. Windmills are so yesterday.
Dennis L.
The people’s republic of Jupiter are not happy with your murmurings about using them as a dumping ground Dennis.
This is really no surprise:
https://rmx.news/germany/german-electricity-imports-hit-new-record-as-nuclear-phase-out-increases-production-cost/
Despite closing its nuclear power plants to focus on renewable energy production, more than a fifth of imported electricity last month was produced from nuclear power.
This approach works when electricity demand is not very high, and France is able to export nuclear power. But when winter comes, I expect “freezing in the dark” becomes the issue.
The article also says:
Of course, the reason why renewables appear cheap is because they have been given the subsidy of going first. The total cost of their production is not being recouped. The ideal thing to import is renewables that someone else is subsidizing. But this only works, until it doesn’t.
A reality check for the Biden camp…. Why anyone would think that lies ‘help’ in war?
Marjorie Taylor Greene says things that quite a few other people would think.
By “other people,” do you mean morons, or just the raving loons of the OFW commentariat?
dont hang about in OFW Martin
there’s no vaccine against loonery—highly contagious and ultimately terminal
Until it hits you, you are going to continue burying your head in the sand about injection-induced injury, incapacity and mortality. But that’s just you. No faith in Almighty God but endless faith in the goodness of human authority. Personally, I find that touching.
But if injection-induced injury, incapacity and mortality hits you or yours, as it has hit millions of victims you are intent on ignoring and invalidating, please don’t come crying to us at WFW for sympathy, because we are all out of that for people with your attitude.
At best, you can expect us to say “We told you so”, and at worst, there are people who will be dining out at your expense for months.
If norm disappears due to a vax injury…. we’ll be making ‘where is norm’ jokes… till the very end…
Where is norm? norm is travelling with the UK geriatric vax disabled volleyball team on the Global Pity Tour … bumping a ball over a 30cm net
What gives you the authority to declare other people morons or raving loons, Martin?
Is it based on your credentials, or is it a case of “it takes one to know one”?
… Beneath the bebop moon
I’m howling like a loon for you…..
all based on observation tim
Lies can help a lot in war. I would be lying if I said they didn’t.
Lying is a form of deception, and deception of all kinds is one of the most effective weapons of war. I would be lying by omission if I omitted to say that.
But obviously lies are a lot less useful if adversaries are not deceived be them. That’s why Sun Tzu is reported to have said “你要说谎，就说个大实话！”, which in my rough idiom translates as “If you’re gonna tell a lie, tell a whopper!”
But whether he did or he didn’t say that, whoppers are often swallowed whole, and in this way whoppers can win wars.
Ohhhhh…. Noooooo
Bad news continues…Real Time August Disability Data from BLS has held on to highs from June. Even more disturbing is Employed Men accelerated in July & Employed Women hit new all time high in August. For some reason the employed rate of change is worse than overall.
Any guesses?
https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/326
norm????? keith?????
Jobs are more available to people with disabilities than in the past.
I have an IDEA!!!!
F789 the para-0lympics… let’s raise a round of funding and use it to start the Vax-Injured Olympics… instead of those flopping seals what battle to knock a ball over a 40cm net we would have world class athletes in their prime — competing for the Gold Medals…
Of course the name would have to be changed to the Long Covid Olympics… otherwise how do you get Pfizer to sponsor the games…and the networks to cover it….
In addition to the athletics we could also have games of intellect… checkers… snakes and ladders.. a spelling bee… and a math competition featuring norm … question 1 – what is the sum of 1 + 1? Imagine the suspense as our boy norm furrows his brow… and battles spike induced dementia … as he attempts to outwit the other brain damaged contestants…
This would be huge… why? Cuz it would take many hours for one of the contestants to answer the question correctly — allowing the networks to run dozens of Pfizer Prevents Long Covid ads… cha-ching cha-ching… this could be more lucrative than the Super Bowl!!!
Math boring. Events that raise blood pressure and heart rate. Running short to long, swimming short to long, bike racing. The team with the fewest stroke and heart attacks wins.
At this point we should just get the whole world to run a marathon. That would sort the wheat from the chaff!
I kind of like the blind downhill skiing at the paralympics. You know… the one where a sighted skiier has to guide the blind skiier down the hill by shouting left or right to avoid the obstacles. There’s nothing that make me feel like we’ve reached peak more than that. It’s just… what else do I need to see.
Ooopsie https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/85032
hahahahahahahaha…
You wanna laugh your ass off?
Watch THIS
https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/85008
(Splash – shipping news)
“Black Sea shipping is set to dominate maritime headlines this week with the heads of littoral states discussing how to navigate the war-torn waters with international leaders, while Russia continues to pummel Ukrainian port infrastructure.”
https://splash247.com/black-sea-shipping-set-to-dominate-headlines-this-week/
Perhaps the message is, “If trade with Russia is being cut off, Russia will not allow exports of any kind, particularly food, from Ukraine by sea.”
Cut off trade with Russia!
Aren’t they concerned that Russia might retaliate and throttle back the gas supply to the EU?
War Torn .. hahahahaha…. one would think there would be a deluge of videos depicting this war tearing … but there ain’t
Cuz it’s a Styrofoam War hahaha
In addition to commenting I unsubscribed…
https://sunflowerparadigm.substack.com/p/energy-too-cheap-to-meter-a-comment
Unfortunately, this is Ugo Bradi’s sub stack. He doesn’t understand that intermittent electricity is not worth much of anything. It is not substitutable for anything. He makes wrong comparisons. He has been involved with the EROEI folks for a long time, but their analysis is totally wrong for wind and solar.
Jabbed people no longer have a soul, an energy body or aura.
They don’t smile, they don’t laugh. They have no joy.
There is a ton of proof out there.
I concur
Well I wish the gutless idiots would get on with the dying part
I got things to do and they are in the way.
Let’s pin our hopes on Q4…
Thank you for this new, very comprehensive analysis, which has the merit of looking at the energy issue from a global perspective, while analysing inter-regional trade, and so on. As you say, “However, for all its talk about preventing climate change, the reduction in European imports of fossil fuels hasn’t made much of a dent in global carbon dioxide emissions”. This is proof and confirmation that the issue can only be looked at globally: Europe’s emissions are simply transferred to the countries that manufacture the imported products. I look forward to hearing from you again.
A regular reader from France.
The thing I didn’t point out is that the interest in climate change is very much centered in rich countries of the world. Poorer countries may pay lip service to climate change, but their interest in climate change is from the point of view of “How will it benefit me in terms of subsidies or exports?”
Same with Covid … hmmmm…. played?
Poor countries of Africa have ivermectin. Also, higher death rate to begin with.
Poorer countries have not been able to afford the mRNA vaccines, mostly.
I got this from Sasha Latypova’s Substack:
She says: This is an interesting video from a Lahaina resident who was allowed to go to his house in the mostly unburned neighborhood of Kahoma Village.
The video introduction says: Three weeks after the Lahaina Fire… What is inside the restricted area? This video takes a tour of a portion of Lahaina Town that survived the fire. My neighborhood, Kahoma Village, is in the center of all the destruction but it is mostly still standing. Is there any critical information we can gain from looking at the areas that did not Burn? The media is only showing the areas that have been completely destroyed. (17 minutes)
The Jehovah’s Witness building is still standing, as is the Jesus Coming Soon building.
Could that be a miracle? Or evidence of an organized religion conspiracy?
One of the big take-aways I got when I went to an actuarial conference in Honolulu was that when there was a volcanic eruption, there were a whole lot of houses nearby that did not burn, which had to be taken down because they could no longer be lived in. There were too many chemical changes from the heat, or something like that.
It sounds like this unburned area in Lahaina is very similar. I suppose that people can come back and pick up some contents. After a great deal of washing, maybe that contents is OK to use. I don’t know. It might vary with the item. The person making the video mentioned the fact that the smell was very bad, and that he could only stay for a short time for this reason. But I am not sure that he came to the conclusion that these buildings were just as uninhabitable as those that burned.
One thing that the person making the video did point out is that the buildings that did not burn were mostly newer buildings, made of heat resistant Hardy Planks. Also, the electric power lines were put underground, at the time the subdivision was built. This way, the power lines could not fall down and start fires, the way the above-ground power lines often start fires.
I would point out that making these changes (which no doubt added costs) was not sufficient. The whole area was surrounded by invasive grass that burned easily. There were above-ground power lines nearby. Putting in solar power would add to the above-ground electric wire problem, at least in some places.
The cost of fixing the underlying problem would be huge. I don’t see any way that Maui could afford to do it, especially with fossil fuel supply constraints, and the high cost of electricity on Maui already. Wages tend to be low, compared to the cost of living.
The video did mention that people with solar panels and batteries wanted to move back into their homes. But this would not be safe. This gives authorities another problem to deal with.
And how do insurers handle the big cost of the loss? Are people expected to take out the solar panels and batteries and more them to a place where homes can be occupied?
Ebola is trending on Twitter.
Rumors are outbreak at Burning Man festival.
90% fatality rate!
Bunga Bunga!
Mob thanks. She plays every thing! and sings. Amazing.
Hey norm how cool would it be if those grand kids you Rat Juiced joined you in your demented state hahaha
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/a-picture-is-worth-a-thousand-words-430
Well, FE, dear old Norm doesn’t believe any of that as we know. Here’s a suggested epitaph for our old OFW friend, which may come in handy sooner than later:
Here lies the wordsmith Norman Paggett
Dear reader, let me his story tell:
He could write a manual for any gadget;
But when hearing of infanticide,
And babies killed when yet unborn,
He merely lol’d and poured out scorn:
So now Norm’s on a First Class ride
Down the fiery way to Hell!
Hell, no! Norman won’t go!
Even as an infanticide-denying atheist, Norman can still get into heaven. Only God can decide such things.
But I love the way you rhymed “Pagett” with “gadget” and brought “a manual” into it.
There aren’t a lot of acceptable rhymes for “Pagett.” The only other one that springs to mind is “a jet”.
Yes, Tim, Paggett gave me some pause for thought, I’ll admit – not being a real Wordsmith and all……..
i think i detect a note of literary desperation there xabier, though to be fair, you do not rely on the aitches and a’s of your mentor, and no four number swearwords, which is a plus.
but as previously suggested—stick to enclosing the words of others
when you step out on the tightrope of your own creation, wordbalance gets difficult, metre gets wobbly, scansion might invite the attention of Dr. Strabismus (whom god preserve).
All in all—-not good.
Try harder.
It’s based on 18th c country churchyard inscriptions, of which we have some lovely examples here; it is quite obviously not intended as Poetry.
I thought it up over my morning croissants and champagne, NOF and just HAD to share it with all your fans!
oh—and still mithering on about those millions of dead babies
being a cereal killer these days is hardly worth the hassle
They are dead Norman, although not ‘millions’ as you persist in saying.
And you are a nasty old fool for mocking the dead.
A cereal killer? Did he do in Cap’n Crunch?
I like these rhyming epitaphs. I remember one from colonial-era New England:
Stop, passenger, as you pass by
and on my grave but cast an eye.
Your sun, like mine, may set at noon,
your soul be called for very soon.
In this dark place you soon shall be.
Prepare for death and follow me.”
and now the big trivial question has arrived:
how much “oil” does the US use?
again I will say that my interpretation is that what the US “uses” is mainly “oil” production plus imports minus exports.
and the EIA gives us their estimates:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
almost to the very bottom of the page: “Product Supplied”.
the total says about 21 mbpd but there is a BIG detail here.
included is a category labeled “Other Oils” and it’s mostly the 6 mbpd of NGPLs that are good hydrocarbons but many of us would not consider them to be “oil” products.
so the US “uses” these hydrocarbons, the biggest portion is ethane which is made into ethylene/plastics.
otherwise, the real “oil” products estimates are:
gasoline 9.0 mbpd
jet fuel= 1.8 mbpd
diesel== 3.7 mbpd
USA = 14.5 mbpd of these 3 “oil” products are what the US “uses”.
The United States became a total petroleum net exporter in 2020
In 2020, the United States became a net exporter of petroleum for the first time since at least 1949.1 In 2022, total petroleum exports were about 9.58 million barrels per day (b/d) and total petroleum imports were about 8.32 million b/d, making the United States an annual net total petroleum exporter for the third year in a row. Total petroleum net exports were about 1.26 million b/d in 2022
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/imports-and-exports.php
the 2023 data looks like the gap has widened to more than 1.5 mbpd of net exports.
the US (and Canada) have a good trend going.
I agree with you. The “Other oils” is the category of biggest increase, and it is generally very low-valued products.
“Product supplied” is code word for what the US consumes. There is information elsewhere on the amount of product exports and imports, which are reflected in these amounts.
next it’s imports and exports for USA:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
down near the bottom of the page.
total petroleum imports= 8.7 mbpd.
total petroleum exports 10.4 mbpd.
so net is 1.7 mbpd of exports.
but crude is net 2.0 of imports (thank you, Canada).
“Products”= net 3.7 of exports.
crude imports about 6.5 mbpd that’s about 2/3rds Canadian = HEAVY.
crude exports about 4.5 mbpd that’s too much US light oil so sell some.
more good news for the US is that there is a big cushion of excess daily products which are now being exported:
about 6.0 mbpd of products now exported:
especially the 1.3 mbpd of diesel, which is a good portion of the 5.0 mbpd that comes out of US refineries.
the US imports almost zero diesel, and in a supply crunch, would surely reduce exports.
another one tossed Brian’s way:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
about halfway down the page.
Days of Supply:
crude oil 25
gasoline 24
jet fuel 24
diesel 31
so by this metric, diesel is in the best shape.
wooooooo!
You didn’t mention propane.
You’ll still be able to cook your hotdogs(with dark chocolate) long after you lose the ability to drive to the store to purchase them.
On the plus side, it’ll only be a week of walking, as then the trucks stop running.
Still, that’s tomorrows problem and as long as it stays that way, who cares, tomorrow is for the young.
yes it does say Propane/Propylene has 104 days.
but I agree: who cares?
Farmers who have corn to dry.
Dennis L.
that’s corny.
It’s more than that. It’s a-maize-ing!
laughing quietly,
Dennis L.
Good point. My grain dryer uses firewood.
Just came accross the “history of oil production”:
Outcrops have been exploited in an artisanal way since the Renaissance, Jacques Wimpfeling mentions them as early as 1498.
In 1627, a letter patent authorized its commercial exploitation in Pechelbronn, in Alsace, from a source that produced a “stone oil” renowned for its therapeutic properties.
Louis Pierre Ancillon de La Sablonnière Jean d’amascéne Eyrénis, the son of the physicist/ scientist Eirini d’eirinis, he obtains a prospecting permit near the Baechel-Brunn source (which will give Pechelbronn) south of Lampertsloch. In 1740, by offering 40 shares on the stock exchange, he created the first joint-stock oil company in France. The first well was dug in 1745. Auger soundings were used from 1813 to determine the orientation of the galleries. In 1879, oil extraction was carried out by water injection, following the Fauvelle principle. The pumps have been in use since 1885. In 1916, mining with a gallery was revived.
https://fr.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exploitation_de_p%C3%A9trole_de_Pechelbronn
Oil has been and is being produced locally from the Pechelbronn strata. The town of Pechelbronn in Alsace has the oldest oil production tradition in Europe. The earliest documented mention of the “earth pitch” from Pechelbronn dates back to 1498; it was used for medical applications at that time. From 1735, well before the beginning of the Industrial Age, oil sands were mined there and from 1879 modern drilling technology was used. In 1813, the world’s first oil drilling tower was built. in 1964, oil production in Pechelbronn was discontinued.
https://de.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pechelbronner_Schichten
It is necessary to get the whole system to work. Oil by itself isn’t enough. You have to have usages for the oil. And pipelines to ship the oil, and stations to sell the oil products. The self-organizing system gradually builds up. There needs to be a financing system for all of this as well. People need to be able to afford to eat the food grown with a tractor powered by diesel.
There is a museum of petrol
https://webmuseo.com/ws/musee-petrole/app/report/index.html
I ❤ oil.
As I was looking at the EIA site, I noticed that they are changing the way they are counting the way they count the value give to the output of wind, solar, and hydroelectric, to something closer to what the IEA does. I have thought that their current method (which is what the Statistical Review of World Energy uses), inflates the value of these energy sources.
This is a link to the write up.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/change/
It should be Joule as Watt is Joule per time multiplied by time.
This is a slightly longer write-up.
I would like to see a comparison of old method, new method. If this is just a smoothing out of assumptions over the years, I am not sure it gets anywhere.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/MER_E.pdf
how much oil does the US use?
the word “use” can lead to misunderstandings.
it looks like the US “processes” or “handles” about 25 mbpd of liquid hydrocarbons.
but does it make sense to say the US “uses” 25 mbpd?
it seems more sensible to take US production plus imports and subtract exports to arrive at a more reasonable amount that the US “uses” per day.
You are running into the problem I was running into when I tried to use the pipeline transfer information. Crude oil comes in, products go out, oil and output may be transferred more than once.
it’s complicated, but I’m back from my propane-grilled hotdogs dinner, so I intend to try to answer my own question.
Brian desperately wants to know the answer. 😉
refinery gains?
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
US refinery inputs are about 17 mbpd.
outputs?
gasoline10 mbpd
jet fuel is 1.7 mbpd
diesel is= 5 mbpd
propane= 2.5 mbpd (who knew propane was outputted by oil refineries?)
so that’s about 19.2 mbpd.
the original 17 mbpd with 1 mbpd added ethanol would imply that output would be about 18 mbpd if there were no refinery gains.
so it can be seen that there are actual refinery gains happening.
my next big (to me) observation about this EIA page:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
right near the top “Refiner Inputs and Utilization” there is a line “Gross Inputs” and the amount is about 17 mbpd, below it refiner capacity 18,270,000 per day exactly and below that is the capacity % which is now about 93%.
nothing on this page seems to refer to the 6 mbpd of US production of Natural Gas Plant Liquids, NGPL or NGL if you wish, which are liquid hydrocarbons that are byproducts of isolating natural gas which is CH4 methane.
(for chem nerrds, NGPLs are mainly C2H6 ethane, C3H8 propane, and C4H10 butane.)
now what would be the estimated total amount of liquid hydrocarbons processed (handled? “used” is a problematic word) in the US per day?
or US + Canada?
US oil refineries input 17 mbpd and NGPLs are 6 mbpd so yes that indeed is 23 mbpd of liquid hydrocarbons!
not double counting Canada’s production exported to the US, add the 2 mbpd that Canada’s refineries use, and the US + Canada total is 25 mbpd!!
that’s ONE BILLION gallons per day of liquid hydrocarbons wow!!
extra bonus:
US “refinery gains” are about 1 mbpd (higher output than input, amazing).
and US ethanol production is also about 1 mbpd which adds to total gasoline production.
so US + Canada with these adds is closer to 27 mbpd!
nice!
When oil is “cracked,” the new shorter molecules take up more volume, if I understand the situation correctly. So it is the heavy oil that we import (and crack) that especially contributes to the refinery gain.
yes it’s not magic, there are laws of physics that apply.
so it’s not really an energy gain, but just a “volume” gain.
My impression is that the natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) don’t really need to go through the refinery. They came from natural gas processing; they don’t need to go through the oil processing, which is documented here. They are in the Stocks, and in the Imports (hardly any) and Exports.
This chart is from the Natural Gas series. It shows natural gas plant liquids by state, but only up through 2021.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_pp_a_EPL0_ygt_Mbbl_a.htm
yes the 6 mbpd of NGPLs are not part of the 19 mbpd US oil refinery output.
the NGPLs indeed are not as valuable as refinery outputs, but they have some value.
I just grilled some hotdogs using propane, works great.
Labor Day weekend, hotdogs ketchup mustard raw onions.
dark chocolate etc.
I don’t get it: mbpd should be 1000 barrels per day, not 1000000. Are you sure the numbers are right? Or am I mistaken?
EIA data is in thousands of barrels.
so 12,800 daily production means 12,800,000.
in US lettering, “m” means million.
doesn’t mean thousand like “millennia”.
Good point.
Oh, I see, thanks!
VAIDS… Glorious VAIDS!!!
School districts in Kentucky, Texas shut down after ‘surge’ of illnesses
Just weeks into the new school year, districts in multiple states are canceling in-person classes for several weeks due to respiratory viruses, including COVID-19, among students and staff. Two school districts in Kentucky — Lee County School District and Magoffin County Schools — said they were closing due to “widespread illness.” LCD canceled classes on Tuesday and Wednesday and switched to virtual classes on Thursday and Friday. “We’re seeing a lot of illness being reported consistent with COVID and influenza,” Scott Lockard, public health director for the Kentucky River District — which includes Lee County — told ABC News. “Lee County had a surge of cases and attendance dropped below the threshold needed to stay open, so they closed.”
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/mitch-mcconnells-2nd-freeze-on-camera-f93
somewhat motivated by our new friend Brian, I’m intending to post some thoughts about North American oil production and consumption.
first, let me mention that Canada produces about 6 mbpd now, their refining capacity is ONLY about 2 mbpd, so where does the other 4 mbpd go?
of course to the US.
and this is HEAVY oil from Alberta,
it still amazes me that there seem to be people who can’t see that the USA and Canada are joined at the hip in their production, refining, and consumption.
Canada MUST export 4 mbpd because they don’t have enough refining capacity, and the US then MUST import HEAVY oil to get the blend needed to produce lots of middle distillates.
because US oil production is trending lighter year after year due to fracked oil being LTO light tight oil.
all the above is win/win for the USA and Canada.
I will be referring mainly to this EIA page:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm
note to Gail:
in the import section, they have a line that says “Imports by SPR” though the data is all zeros.
but it looks like they might consider drained SPR amounts to be “imports” and not new production?
Been zero every year from 1995, except 2000-2003.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WCSIMUS2&f=W
yes so I’m not sure what “they” are doing with SPR drained amounts, but it still might be considered “imports”.
it shouldn’t be new “production” because the oil was long ago produced and “sold” to the US government for storage.
I thought that the US wanted the option of buying oil to refill the SPR. So maybe that is it.
It is possible to write to the EIA and get answers to questions regarding what is happening. Of course, zeros as place holders don’t tell us that anything will really come that direction.
The natural gas lines are also interconnected.
Canada cannot ship oil or natural gas from the west side of the country to the east side of the country. Instead, they ship it south to the US, and pipelines from the US supply the East. Or the East Coast imports oil across the ocean.
The west side of Canada and the east side do not seem to get along well.
that west to east shipping problem is just one more validation that Canada and the US have a symbiotic relationship for oil production and refining.
FE should like this one:
“https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fda-cdc-hid-data-spike-covid-cases-among-vaccinated-documents.”
Seems DOD had the data, there are some issues with the jab. Listened to both sides here, made a guess and sat it out, let someone else have my turn(s).
Thanks Gail.
Dennis L.
Of course they did and when it was brought up those who mentioned the possibility were either cancelled or silenced. The CDC was probably paid off by Big Pharma to put a lid on any negative data but that’s just conspirSee talk.
By the way, you can just post the link this way:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fda-cdc-hid-data-spike-covid-cases-among-vaccinated-documents
I agree with Rodster.
I’ve been subscribed to Paul’s channel and wish I did sooner..
This is a very insightful scenario of his for a financial reset and he points out the energy depletion aspect in the video…
For those that do not wish to spend the time to watch it….he provides a transcript on the side bar…
He stresses it may not pan out as he puts forth…but it does make sense to me
Reset
belangp
Likes 27,470
My personal theory about the upcoming reset. Enjoy.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pV2XoSVhzsc
@belangp
10 years ago
Sorry, I think there was a misunderstanding. I was referring to MY scenario as cynical, not yours. I’m trying to get into the heads of the bigwigs and figure out what they will likely do based upon their own self interest. I agree with you. Our kids face a bleak future and hopefully that will change. War should be avoided.
@tonycodolo
2 years ago
Watching this 7 years later, I find it amazing just how accurate you have been in your understanding of how this is going to unfold
There will be a new currency, backed by gold, in the video from 10 years ago.
But now, the different parts of the world are not getting along. The world is starting to split. The US is losing its hegemony. I don’t see a single gold currency. I see a world that can make fewer and fewer goods, in the future.
Governments will want to ration what goods and services are available. I am not sure how this works. I imagine the central bank digital currencies are planned in this way.
I have listened, and he refers to a reset of the financial system related to a currency backed by gold. He mentiones that it gets more and more difficult to exploit crude oil and that as a consequence the economy will not grow as before.
Piketty wrote decades ago, that a structural and permanent recession would need negative interest rates, as in capitalism noone would lend someone capital who has less tomorrow than today. CBDCs would obviously allow such a strategy.
From my point of view, this does not go far enough. Crude oil allows the production of goods and services in the real economy. In the moment the economies shrink due to a lack of crude, the amounts of goods and servives will shrink; this is referred to as “lower complexity”. Less oil, less services will lead to less graduates from universities who would be needed to answer the growing challenges of oil production. To build oil platforms for offshore extraction or from under the ice or even from outer space. This “lower complexity” will refer to all kind of needs for growing efforts in oil production: computers, mobiles, planes, engineers, services to provide the workers and their families. Oil production with the needs of the 2025s will have to use the technology of the 40s perhaps. And this will lead to less oil production and into a vicious circle.
Our agriculture is highly petrified. We have lost knowledge, soil, technology as much as seeds and breeds to turn to an agriculture without petrochemicals. Perhaps some idealists have secured some resources, perhaps the Amish, the bio farmers and incentives for the preservation of old garden plants and resulient lifestock. But these are drops on a hot stone.
If you look into history, cities have seldom been larger than 50.000 inhabitants. They could not be serviced, especially with food. To transport by ox cart or by horse needs fodder that has to be grown close to the cities. Imports are difficult, even for ancient Rome they were.
A Reset would need much more “preparations” to than just a new currency. Civilisations crash by reaching turning points and sinking on a lower levels of complexity. These are sudeen events. If this lower complexity means no food or water supply for a large city, the crash will not be soft and evolutionary but a cataclythm. Imagine 5 or 10 mio people trying to migrate to the countryside because cities cannot anymore provide them.
Thank you both for your replies…
MONEYCharted: 30 Years of Central Bank Gold DemandPublished 6 months ago on March 15, 2023
By Govind BhutadaGraphics/Design:Pernia JamshedClayton Wadsworth
The Visual Capitalist recently posted this article,e with graphs..
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-30-years-of-central-bank-gold-demand/#:~:text=Central%20banks%20have%20long%20held,promote%20stability%20during%20economic%20turmoil.&text=Gold%20offers%20a%20hedge%20against,U.S.%20dollar)%20due%20to%20inflation.&text=Gold%20has%20an%20inverse%20correlation%20with%20the%20U.S.%20dollar.
Did you know that nearly one-fifth of all the gold ever mined is held by central banks?
Besides investors and jewelry consumers, central banks are a major source of gold demand. In fact, in 2022, central banks snapped up gold at the fastest pace since 1967.
Gold plays an important role in the financial reserves of numerous nations. Here are three of the reasons why central banks hold gold:
Balancing foreign exchange reserves
Central banks have long held gold as part of their reserves to manage risk from currency holdings and to promote stability during economic turmoil.
Hedging against fiat currencies
Gold offers a hedge against the eroding purchasing power of currencies (mainly the U.S. dollar) due to inflation.
Diversifying portfolios
Gold has an inverse correlation with the U.S. dollar. When the dollar falls in value, gold prices tend to rise, protecting central banks from volatility.
The top 10 official buyers of gold between end-1999 and end-2021 represent 84% of all the gold bought by central banks during this period.
Russia and China—arguably the United States’ top geopolitical rivals—have been the largest gold buyers over the last two decades. Russia, in particular, accelerated its gold purchases after being hit by Western sanctions following its annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Interestingly, the majority of nations on the above list are emerging economies. These countries have likely been stockpiling gold to hedge against financial and geopolitical risks affecting currencies, primarily the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, European nations including Switzerland, France, Netherlands, and the UK were the largest sellers of gold between 1999 and 2021, under the Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) framework.
Türkiye, experiencing 86% year-over-year inflation as of October 2022, was the largest buyer, adding 148 tonnes to its reserves. China continued its gold-buying spree with 62 tonnes added in the months of November and December, amid rising geopolitical tensions with the United States.
Overall, emerging markets continued the trend that started in the 2000s, accounting for the bulk of gold purchases. Meanwhile, a significant two-thirds, or 741 tonnes of official gold purchases were unreported in 2022.
According to analysts, unreported gold purchases are likely to have come from countries like China and Russia, who are looking to de-dollarize global trade to circumvent Western sanctions
Anyway, I agree with a past school instructor that pointed out we spend a great deal of effort to mine dig it up refine it and then place it secure sometimes underground in a safe…
Besides it is now very destructive to the planet…especially in the Amazon jungle and getting harder and more difficult to extract.
Dennis L’s new shtick, the 80:20 theory, comes from Vilfredo Pareto, who discovered it by observing the beans in his garden. He theorized that 20% of his beans produced 80% of the production. He was no biologist and he did a bunch of things in sociology and economics but his theory was popularized by a Joseph Juran, a roumanian-born management consultant.
Interestingly Pareto, who died in 1923, supported fascism because it was much more efficient than what he observed for most of his life. After all Mussolini is the only ruler in Italian history who made trains run in time.
But it is much more efficient to use the 1:99 principle. 1% owns everything and 99% owns very little.
The world would have reached all these goals of singularity much faster if the 1% owned everything and everyone had nothing. IT is the 19%, who know they will have no place after Singularity, who are resisting all the changes with all their might.
I think if Pareto lived a bit longer he would have approved the 1:99 principle.
New thoughts about the elders plans plan A was the depopulation which started 2020 and was the great reset plan it failed so now the elders are doing plan B bring in high inflation dooming the world to permanent poverty if you aren’t prepared by now then prepare to become a third world citizen as this will be the collective future for the 99.99 %
there is no ”grand plan”
just all of us messing it up
If there is no plan why is there no collapse because there is a plan or plans
thats easy to answer
if youre in a rubber boat, crossing the English in a desperate bid to survive, and the boat sinks
or
if youre freezing to death living under a motorway bridge somewhere
your world has collapsed already.
if you live a reasonably comfortable life, as I do, as I am guessing you do
your world has not yet collapsed.
My point is—-that collapse will not be the same thing for everyone at the same time. I might see out my alloted span without collapse.
We look around and see that things are OK (for us)—so get into a mindset that believes there is some kind of plot. I don’t suppose i can point you in a different direction. I won’t try. If you are a conspiracist, then things are pretty much fixed.
The reality is, that 8 billion of us are trying to survive on a planet able to support 1–2 billion.
So its someone elses fault
Nope, its the fault of every one of us—we take more than the planet is able to give. Not only that, we turn the planet into a cash asset.
That won’t work I’m afraid. Deny it all you like, say theres a ‘grand plan’, but thats the state we have brought ourselves to. All of us.
Niorn i agree with virtually everything you have said apart from the plan and me blaming the elders they are the realists .much as I fear their plans to save the humans from extinction by doing dreadful things forced vaccination I realise the reason they done it to save the human species we are on the titanic the ship is sinking and sacrifices must be made.
no group of people possesses the means to alter where we are headed
we are in a form of collective hysteria and at the same time–denial
the vaxxing thing as i said at the start of it—was a knee jerk reaction on the part of governments who were petrified of a repeat of 1921 with 50m dead
mistakes were made–but there was no grand conspiracy.—50m dead in 1921 would mean 200m dead in 2021.
the planet has been turned into cash as a separate issue–that is the ultimate result of capitalism.—nothing to do with covid
overlaying the whole thing is collective greed
A friend of us was in a strange dream when suddenly the telephone rang. Why are you calling me inmist the night? My God, you are alive? Yes, I am sleeping! They have bombed your neighbour house completely!
The collapse did happen.
There may be a conspiracy failing to address the most important! There are many ways to make onesself important. Perhaps Kill Bill has cut his deeds in stone?
If you look to Europe, including UK, the USA, even Russia and China, people will all say, we are in a bad moment. Hopefully it will go up again, next year!
Civilisations crash by reaching turning points that lead to a stable moment of lower complexity.
sometimes i think we use the word ‘crash’ rather loosely
we think crash in term of the split second of a car accident—but overlay that word onto civilisations that maybe took centuries to ‘crash
they are not the same thing at all
each generation worse than the last, while none believe that they are–they are in denial—things will get better
@Norman exactly!
Norman, I want to agree with everything you’ve said here and I do agree with a lot of it, but I can’t swallow “There is no plan” in the face of all the planning I’ve seen going on and I can’t swallow “Mistakes were made” as an excuse for planned coercion, sadism, vandalism, and general destruction off the economy, society, security and civilization in general.
Mistakes were not made. Governments the world over implemented a lot of the same disastrous policies, although to different extents, and people suffered and died as a result.
Governments did this because they were ordered to by figures in the shadows who hold power over them, and even when senior government officials were made aware of the carnage that their policies were causing, their responses, off the record, amounted to “We can’t do anything; it’s above our pay grade.”
Governments the world over can’t have all just made the same mistakes simultaneously, spontaneously and coincidentally. They had to have been responding to essentially the same set of instructions or orders from above their pay grade. Observation indicates that there was flexibility in the responses, but not in the original orders.
Norman, mon cher ami, you saw what you were meant to see! But Hercule Poirot—I mean Tim Groves—he sees everything, n’est pas.
It was so obviously preplanned, you would have to doubt the reasoning of any that said otherwise.
In England and Wales, the Corona Virus Act came out within a couple of weeks, but constitutional lawyers all said it was so detailed that it would have taken 3-9 months to compile.
They didn’t stop there though. For the first year and a half, they averaged more than 1 law change a day. Anyone that doesn’t see that as strange, I advise looking into the process and see how many departments you have to go through.
https://www.hansardsociety.org.uk/publications/data/coronavirus-statutory-instruments-dashboard#how-many-coronavirus-related-statutory-instruments-did-t
Anyone would think that they didn’t already have protocols for a dangerous flu, but it turns out that they did, so let’s have a look.
“Minimising serious illness and deaths, supported by rapid access to antiviral
medicines, antibiotics and healthcare.”
They didn’t do that, did they?
Sounds a lot like preplanned murder.
I won’t go into the DNRs that they illegally put on all pensioners and disabled children(useless eaters?).
Masks work though, don’t they?
“though there is a perception that the wearing of facemasks by the public in the
community and household setting may be beneficial, there is in fact very little evidence
of widespread benefit from their use in this setting.”
What, they clearly and deliberately lied.
We definitely know that Corona Virus are air born, so the last thing you should do is gather in large groups, right?
“There is very limited evidence that restrictions on mass gatherings will have any
significant effect on influenza virus transmission14. Large public gatherings or crowded
events where people may be in close proximity are an important indicator of ‘normality’
and may help maintain public morale during a pandemic. The social and economic
consequences of advising cancellation or postponement of large gatherings are likely to
be considerable for event organisers, contributors and participants. There is also a lack
of scientific evidence on the impact of internal travel restrictions on transmission and
attempts to impose such restrictions would have wide-reaching implications for business
and welfare.
4.22 For these reasons, the working presumption will be that Government will not impose any
such restrictions. The emphasis will instead be on encouraging all those who have
symptoms to follow the advice to stay at home and avoid spreading their illness.
However, local organisers may decide to cancel or postpone events in a pandemic
fearing economic loss through poor attendances, and the public themselves may decide
not to mix in crowds, or use public transport if other options are available.”
That will do, but if you have look, you will see that they very deliberately ignored all the protocols(it even warns about never attempting to close an economy, as that’s far more deadly than any pandemic, let alone a made up one).
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/213717/dh_131040.pdf
On the coordination, look back to the 48 hour period that saw ever western leader at the podium with the words Build Back Better constantly beaten into the consciousness of the public. Even Imran Khan in Pakistan was on stage in Pakistan with loads of signs in Urdu, but over his head in big bold English was Build Back Better. That really was a give away.
norm is … confused…
Now now norm… new boosters are on the way… everything will be fine
I see St. Vitus dances, incantation rituals, as well as derilatory, media fantasies of Tooth Fairy, Santa Claus, and Easter Bunny fan clubs in the face of unsolvable problems at the end of a once-in-a-lifetime, reckless, planet-consuming feeding frenzy fueled by dwindling fossil fuels.
I can see no general plan, only short term wave surfing!
Saludos el mar
Short (10min.) undercover nurse video:
https://twitter.com/catsscareme2021/status/1698661756074111452
Then why no collapse norm
Civilisations collapse by reaching turning points and going to levels of lower complexity.
I think that this “going to levels of lower complexity” has happend during the Covid years. People believe it has happend as a consequence of the virus and the measures, though.
I had expected that already in 2019. I had a discussion with a friend in 2019 and said, they will have to do something or we will get a supply crunch in oil followed by a bankrun and a crash of the financial markets. This friend called me later and said, how could you know? I said, I have not forcasted a virus. He said, it is exactly this, don’t you see it, it fits perfectly the ‘something’ you were expecting!
I think the virus was a large cover-up for a fall to a lower state of complexity.
There is another point: the WHO contracts.
Let’s say WHO could identify a dangerous pathogen in Moskew, Georgia and Aserbajdjahn and demand a full lockdown. Oil production would crash if not the EU would jump in and take over the rigs, right?
When we make business we like to come to a win-win-solution. When we have more than two partners it can become a more complex “plan”, a win-win-win-solution. You have to give the military it’s advantage, national politics, Big Pharma, the docs, the injecjed, the media…
Analysing the “plan” leads to a lot of results, which “cui bono” is the most important?
You have apparently the idea, Adonis, that they kill to make mankind survive. That is worth a speculation. But for sure the injecting doc does not have this in mind, nor the involved banks, politicians or the military. That is very much an OFW projection.
There might also be the idea of “being evil”. The whole thing is highly connected to symbolism. Symbols are usually used to direct and steer groups that can read them. They may also be used as a “subtext” for subtle manipulation. This “being evil” might be interpreted by instable minds as a new self-reliancy as a consequence of times of instability. Of course self-reliancy does not necessarily lead to being evil.
It is a complex matter and if it is a plan, I have to admid, it is close to ingenious – even if I oppose it. There should have been a better, more human, one! As you know I am of the opinion that we have to strengthen a non-petrochemical agriculture and to involve as many people as possible into it.
Governments are pumping new funding into nuclear energy with 486 reactors either planned, proposed, or under construction worldwide, signaling a shift from previous hesitations and warnings about the energy source.
Respectfully don’t think that is a very good idea; the damn things work well until they don’t.
My meme, move it all to space and damn the safety, damn the pollution, full production and a chicken in every pot.
Have never been to Bali, sounds lovely; too far from me, would have to go tourist. HK was seventeen hours from LA, this old body would be a pretzel upon arrival. Have fun!
Dennis L.
Thank you Dennis bali trip was birthday present from my wife turned 57 there hot sunny weather drunk lots of coconuts,fresh papaya juice and the local beer down there.
like everyone else, governments are desperate to keep the show on the road
Yup, kul will be upset, but the universe can only make 20% work, but when it does, wow!. I love the supernova shtick, don’t get the right size lump of iron for the earth’s core, bam, another star bites the dust, or try, try again.
Made a number of mistakes in my life, first one to college, made it through, wasn’t smart enough for what I attempted, but I did finish Madison, mathematics. Became a dentist and made a good living. Two different worlds but dental was real and I was good at it even if not my first choice, I “settled.” It is good to adapt and when the stars align, luck beats talent most of the time. Always 80/20, my 80% effort was mathematics, good, but not nearly good enough, next.
Dennis L.
you became a good dentist because you had good brain, eye, hand coordination
i became a good artist for exactly the same reason Found I was good at mathematics when driven to apply it. Otherwise hopeless.
and yes i had some amazing strokes of luck—how i dont know
as with you, people came to me to buy my skills, getting paid to do a job i loved was a perfect way of life.–but nothing surreal, or other worldly. Just me
i loved it—fresh challenge every day, no monotony.
Currently in bali now on holiday it’s packed busier than 2018 last time I went many of the travellers we have talked to say the same thing prices have gone up for airfares I reassure them prices should come down in a year and they happily agree poor ostriches.
Try https://mamasanbali.com/#dipipopup-3962
thanks fast Eddie got into bali without being asked for vax proof this is good news for unvaxxed
I am sure that even during the mandates one could slip one of the fellas a twenty and they’d let an a-vaxxer through
kul,
Hard to make money with the 1/99, better to cut the losses with the 80/20, not perfect but good enough.
You are absolutely correct re. Pareto, I assume most here are familiar so don’t repeat the name.
Dennis L.
I’ve never heard about paredo thank you kulm
CHS again:
“A nightmarish cloud of complexity has descended on everything we’re required to do, such as filing taxes, obtaining permits, upgrading software, changing the oil in one’s car, and so on. Twenty years ago, you unscrewed the oil plug, drained the oil, and so on. Now there are three flimsy shields to remove to reach the oil plug, each with a different set of connectors. (This is a Honda Civic, a “basic” car.)”
Strongly agree:
1. Went to first class, needed my student ID and password; everyone took out their phone and voila! Except me, quaint, I use my phone to call people and even read a text or two. It is a “good” one, could do more, why worry about losing it? Couldn’t participate, couldn’t get on a computer for a powerpoint, AGH! Went this week with ID, password, sat down, no need. Digital electronics if you want to know, going to try and make something of my life. Nearest school is 50 miles away, relax, I drive a hybrid.
2. I am more than passably good at personal computers, my first one was a S100 which required writing the BIOS for CP/M. Have one computer down, needs a driver, can’t connect it to internet as no driver, Chat GPT to rescue I hope, but why the heck do I need AI to turn on a computer?
3. Considered using PLC for my farm house solar, changed my mind, will use relays; when I am gone PLC’s would require an industrial electrician for maintenance, hopeless in country. Solar is a work in progress, large water tank put in when addition on house, some years back, don’t ask, going to make some solar collectors real soon now, tubing in floor under cement board for heat ballast. So, it is not simple at all, sunk costs are hell.
4. I regularly swear at computers, and I can use them; my new laptop(for class which I now don’t need, it is only money)uses Win11, I don’t have a clue what it is doing when it starts. No instructions, nothing indicating how to start if it stops, Sam’s if you want to know; service desk? Laughing quietly.
5. Have two side by sides, older one has a simple Honda engine, going to fix it, can fix it, it is bulky, it is rugged and it doesn’t require JD service where an oil change can be 1K for a “simple” diesel lawn mower. This stuff has gotten very complicated.
I miss the fifties, it was easy, it was pleasant even without air conditioning. FWIW, the new ACs use a different gas, high-pressure, when it leaks, it leaks.
Dance is still simple, new teacher, very attractive, ruff. Some things haven’t changed although I think some anatomy isn’t stock.
Dennis L.
🙂
My husband and I ended up with headaches, just trying to pay in a parking lot with no human attendant this afternoon. The fancy little square design didn’t work. We eventually figured out a website to log into, and eventually got all of the other information they wanted. Live would have been a lot easier if we had had a real attendant who would take a few dollar bills.
My husband had a long hospital stay last year & dealing with the parking garage was just a misery. This is true of many places around the Twin Cities. These used to be part-time jobs for studrnts & retirees & I can’t imagine the medical corporations were losing big bucks.
RL,
Hope your husband is doing well, parking in the cities is a pain; parking in St. Paul in winter is even more interesting, they only have one snow plow.
Dennis L.
You should park in Japan. The machine tells you how much to pay and you put your coins in the slot, then out pops a receipt and the barrier goes up. This fifty-year-old technology works fine. Japan is well behind the curve on going cashless, thank heavens.
Laughing quietly, one needs the internet to pay for parking. I suspect this is referencing smart phones, sooner or later one must cave. For me, not until the last moment.
Dennis L.
New York Port Authority still loves cash.
Ran into an issue in Québec. Hotel set up to work ‘remotely’: no concierge on site. The idea (we didn’t fully understand this) that they would text (not e-mail) a passcode a few hours before the start of the reservation BUT our US phones ceased working once we crossed the border. Once we got there, there was no way to contact anyone! Fortunately a neighboring business allowed us to use their phone, and we were able to call and get the code, but it was a ridiculous and stressful scenario. Plus we don’t speak French all that well. :-/
“Plus we don’t speak French all that well.”
Good. At least you’re not traitors.