Can India come out ahead in an energy squeeze?

I was recently asked to be a keynote speaker for World Management Conference (WMC 2023) in Patna, India. The academic group that asked me to speak was particularly concerned about Complexity and Sustainability. A PDF copy of the presentation is available at this link.

The primary things I pointed out to the group were the following:

  • The slower the growth, the more sustainable an economy is over the moderately long term.
  • Energy consumption and the use of complexity tend to rise together.
  • Too much complexity can lead to collapse.
  • In general, the most “efficient” economies can be expected to do best.
  • Over the long term, all economies will collapse.
  • There have been shifts in which economies get a major share of available energy supplies. Shifting patterns are likely again in the future.
  • India may come out ahead in an energy squeeze because its warm climate and conservative culture allow its energy consumption per capita to remain low.
Distribution of World Energy Consumption by Country Grouping, 1982 to 2022. OECD is largest in 1982, but has shrunk to 39% in 2022. China has grown from 6% in 1982 to 26% in 2022.
Figure 1. Share of total world energy consumption, by country grouping, based on data of the 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy by Energy Institute. Russia+ includes Russia and its close affiliates. For the earliest years, these were data for the Soviet Union. For more recent years, the grouping is for the Commonwealth of Independent States.

A great deal of my presentation was simply a restatement of the words on the slides, in a slightly different way. So, my comments on the slides will be quite brief.

Title Slide: Complexity and India's Sustainability
Slide 1.
Section Header Slide: Why Complexity Is Needed. Explanation: Complexity is a temporary workaround if there are too many people for resources.
Slide 2.
The problem giving rise to the need for complexity: Population tends to increase, but arable land a fresh water does not increase. Soon there is not enough food and fresh water to go around. Complexity solves problems!
Slide 3.

Of course, after complexity solves problems, population continues to grow, creating a similar problem all over again. This likely leads to the need for even more complexity.

Chart illustrating that the faster population rises, the more quickly it reaches limits. Slower growth is more sustainable.
Slide 4.

My crude drawing represents the difference between slow growth in population and fast growth in population. Rapid growth is difficult to sustain for very long because arable land and fresh water don’t grow.

There is a similar problem if fossil fuel energy is being used. If growth in consumption is very fast (for example, China’s growth pattern starting in 2002), it becomes impossible to keep up the pattern. There can be two different problems: (a) Running short of fuels, leading to the need for higher-cost extraction and/or imports, and (b) Overpromising in the financial markets, leading to debt defaults and stock market crashes. China seems to be encountering both difficulties, even though its population is falling, rather than growing.

Examples of complexity. Farming is a kind of complexity. A photo is shown of workers in India harvesting rice with a metal hand tool. Knives from metal are a kind of complexity.
Slide 5.

Organizing workers to plant and harvest crops represented a major step up in complexity, relative to hunting and gathering.

A metal tool, such as the one shown on Slide 5, greatly helped the productivity of farmers compared to using a sharpened rock or a piece of wood as a tool, or using only bare hands.

More examples of complexity. Pumps for water irrigation. Very large farm machinery. Hybrid seed. International trade. Companies, including international companies.
Slide 6.
More advanced complexity.  Computers and scientific models. Lots of government debt. Intermittent electricity from solar panels and wind turbines. Supply lines providing materials from around the globe.
Slide 7.
Current complexity uses a huge amount of fossil fuels. Diesel fuel powers international ships, huge trucks, and agricultural equipment. Oil products are used to make pesticides. There are no electrical  substitutes for any of these. Coal is used in making solar panels, iron and steel, and concrete. Natural gas is burned to offset the intermittency of wind and solar on the electric grid..
Slide 8.

Of course, this list of uses is very incomplete. For example, both coal and natural gas are burned to create electricity.

Section Header: How Complexity Hits Limits
Slide 9.
1. The most useful complexity is found first.

The complexity with the highest return, relative to investment, tends to come early. For example, the  wheel. Damming water for irrigation. Burning coal to produce electricity.  Later inventions often have much less favorable returns.  Solar panels need the subsidy of going first. Electric vehicles usually cost more than regular vehicles; need subsidies.
Slide 10.
2. Growing complexity leads to wage and wealth disparity. Best educated people tend to get the highest wages. Property owners tends to amass wealth, both from capital gains due to inflation and rents collected.  Problem is that there are not enough goods and service left over for poor people. They can't afford food and shelter.
Slide 11.
At side, the Energy Complexity Spiral illustration by Joseph Tainter. Third way economy growing complexity reaches limits: Growing complexity enables the use of more energy. Item a) Use of energy to make better tools takes energy, but at the same time it sometimes adds to energy supply. Item b) Greater complexity makes cars more fuel efficient, but also may make them less expensive to operate, enabling more people to afford the vehicles. Item c)Adding more layers of government adds more wages, and thus more buying power. The great buying power indirectly raises fossil fuel prices, enabling more extraction.
Slide 12.

As an example of a) above, a metal shovel allows more food to be grown. Food is, of course, an energy product that humans eat. Another example would be better drilling approaches that allow more oil to be extracted from a well.

Regarding b), greater complexity makes cars more fuel-efficient cars, making the cars less expensive to operate. This makes them more affordable, so more people can afford to buy them. This is known as Jevons’ Paradox. Although the devices look more efficient, the fact that more people can afford them allows the total amount of fuel used to increase.

Item c) relates to adding “buying power.” If more people can afford goods because of more government spending or more government debt, the added buying power keeps the demand, and thus the prices, of energy products up higher than they otherwise would be. The higher prices motivate businesses to extract harder-to-access energy resources that might not be profitable to extract if the prices were lower.

4. Growing complexity leads to a shortage of inexpensive to produce energy supplies. International trade takes oil, leading to shortages of  diesel and jet fuel. Manufacturing of solar panels takes coal, and eventually aids in driving up the the price of coal.  Problem is that the most easily
Slide 13.

We extract the least expensive to extract oil, coal, or natural gas first. Even if our techniques get better, at some point, the price of fossil fuels used in growing and transporting of food becomes unreasonably high. Poor people, especially in low-income countries, have a hard time affording an adequate diet.

5. Growing complexity invites collapse.
Three references are giving for "The Economy is a self-organizing physics-based system. An image by Gail Tverberg is shown, illustration how an economy grows as added layers, with unneeded earlier layers gradually being removed.  The inside becomes hollow. The system becomes fragile. Economies often collapse.
Slide 14.

Slide 14 shows a chart I put together to try to explain the physics-based way economies are built. In a way, they are built in layers, with new businesses being added at the top, over old businesses, and new laws being added to old sets of laws. New human customers are added, too, and some die or move away.

Every action that contributes to GDP requires energy of some kind. It could be human energy powered by food, or human energy plus fossil fuel powered energy. Moving a truck or train requires energy. Even moving electrons, as in heating food or transferring electrons within transmission lines, takes energy.

One thing that keeps the system in balance is the fact that many of the consumers are also employees. If wages are not high enough (particularly for the poorer members of the economy), it becomes increasingly difficult for them to afford the basic goods and services that they need for living. Of course, changing interest rates or the availability of credit also affects the affordability of goods and services.

Chart titled: Collapse follows a predictable pattern. This chart shows a line that rises and falls, sort of like a mountain. On the way up, the caption says "Complexity Rises" and "Fossil fuel consumption rises or more wood is cut for fuel. The top of the mountain is labelled, "Too much complexity." <b>"Too much wage and wealth disparity."</b> On the way back down, the labels are "Population falls!" and "GDP falls!"
Slide 15. Hand drawn chart by Gail Tverberg showing some of the processes that change as an economy gradually grows too big and too complex for its resource base.

Early in the life of the economy, both energy consumption and complexity rise, as depicted in The Energy-Complexity Spiral by Joseph Tainter, illustrated on Slide 12,

At some stage, the economy reaches a point of too much wage and wealth disparity. Poor people cannot afford the necessities of life. Riots by poor people become common, as they did about 2018 and 2019, indirectly because of low wages and low benefit levels. Governments find ways to make goods more affordable, as many did in 2020 (partly by ramping up money supply and partly by limiting travel, thereby reducing oil demand and thus oil prices).

As the economy tries to bounce back, inflation and broken supply lines can become problems, as they did in 2021. More fighting tends to take place, as it did with the Ukraine conflict beginning in 2022. In some ways, the economy begins to sound like the book Nineteen Eighty-Four by George Orwell, with a great deal of censorship of opinions not conforming to government-sponsored views.

If the problem really is a resource problem that cannot be fixed with more complexity, the high level of wage disparity will ultimately lead to the population falling because poor people cannot afford necessities. Large cities are particularly prone to collapse. GDP can be expected to fall at the same time.

Section Header Slide says "The Standard Narrative Says "Growth Forever." The subtitle is, "Physics says that inefficient economies are squeezed out."
Slide 16.
Politicians, educators, and businesses cannot admit that collapse might be ahead. The standard narrative is <b>Business as usual will continue forever.</b> All we need is more complexity.  Intermittent electricity from wind and solar can substitute for fossil fuel. Our biggest issue is "Climate Change."

This  is  nonsense. We humans have little control over climate. But lots of academic papers are written on this basis. Our economy is powered by energy of the right kinds, under the laws of physics. Intermittent electricity cannot substitute for diesel oil or jet fuel.
Slide 17.

Politicians cannot admit that such a problem might be lying ahead because they want to be reelected. Educators want students to think that high-paying jobs for people with advanced education will continue to be available in the future. Businesses want people to believe that the cars and homes that they are purchasing will be worthwhile investments for many years in the future. Mainstream media has no choice but to tell the stories governments and businesses want told. Governments offer research grants on projects associated with the favored technologies, giving financial incentives to publish academic papers supporting the chosen narrative.

The whole process is assisted by the fact that academic areas within universities each seem to exist within their own ivory towers. Researchers within economics departments don’t understand that there is a physics reason for the world’s high energy consumption; “scientific modelers” don’t understand the limits of a finite world. Scientific modelers assume that growth can happen indefinitely, while both history and physics indicate that this is impossible.

Physics tends to squeeze our inefficient economies and favor efficient economies. Evolution occurs with plants and animals. Something similar happens with ecosystems and with economies. Survival of the best adapted occurs as conditions change. For an economy, best adapted seems to mean "Able to produce goods and services inexpensively, compared to other countries. The Soviet Union  was not well adapted prior to its collapse in 1991: cold climate, expensive oil wells compared to other countries, lack of good ports, long shipping distances. China was well-adapted in 2001, with its inexpensive coal for producing goods. But now its coal is depleting and its fiancial model of savings as extra homes is not working.
Slide 18.
Figure 1 chart called "Distribution of World Energy Consumption" is shown again. Text says, "Chart shows major shifts in energy consumption. The group of countries included in "Russia+" were squeezed down very early; after 2001, China has been favored.
Slide 19.

The chart shown on Slide 19 is a repeat of Figure 1, shown at the beginning of this post. In this chart, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is an organization of 37 rich countries of the world, including the US, Canada, most of the countries of Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. Its energy consumption clearly has been squeezed down since 2002, when China’s energy consumption started rising after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001.

As mentioned on Slide 18, the share of world energy consumption of Russia (+ closely affiliated countries) has been squeezed back for a very long time. This may be part of the reason why Russia seems to be so unhappy.

India’s share of world energy consumption is small, but it has been growing.

The share of energy consumption by countries in the Rest of the World has also been growing. This group would include OPEC countries, plus the many poor countries around the world.

India uses much less energy per capita than many other countries:
1. India's climate doesn't require heating of homes and businesses
• Sales price of goods can be lower in the international market
• Makes the economy more competitive
2. Some of India's agriculture is performed using low-level tools
• Primarily uses human energy, not fossil fuels
3. Most people don't have vehicles
• Vehicles used tend to be small
4. Tradition mandates conservative life-style
•Mothers often don't work outside the home
5. Intermittent electricity iscourages use of refrigerators
Slide 20.

In item 4 on Slide 20, regarding vehicles being small, I mean that motorcycles, 3-wheeled auto rickshaws, and mini trucks are used to a much greater extent in India than in the richer countries of the world.

Perhaps India can "come out ahead" in the next squeezing out because of its low energy consumption per capita.  Chart shows energy consumption per capita (in gigajoules) with the following amounts: US = 284; Europe = 118; China = 112; World = 76; India = 26; Central Africa = 5.
Slide 21.

It might be mentioned that China’s per-capita energy consumption is now almost as high as that of Europe. At the time it joined the WTO in 2001, China’s energy consumption per capita was only about 25% of high as that of Europe. China would now seem to be in danger of having its share of world energy consumption squeezed back because it is itself becoming relatively rich.

India is a major importer of oil. Using oil sparingly makes it more affordable. Chart shows India's oil consumption, which had been rapidly rising, next to its oil production. India's oil production is less than 20% of its consumption. The difference is made up by imported oil.
Slide 22.

The chart shows that India’s oil consumption has been rising, while its oil production has been trending downward for about a decade. Imports make up the difference. In an oil-constrained world, the question is whether oil imports will really continue to be available at an affordable price. Diesel and jet fuel are in particularly short supply.

India's energy consumption is 88% fossil fuels. Wind and solar account for 3% to 6%, depending upon the approach. Chart shows India's consumption of all types of fuels rapidly rising between 1982 and 2022. Coal provides a little over half of India's total energy consumption.
Slide 23.

India, like pretty much everywhere else in the world, gets the vast majority of its energy supply from fossil fuels. Using the Energy Institute’s (EI’s) way of counting, about 88% of India’s energy consumption in 2022 came from fossil fuels.

It is confusing to know how to count wind and solar because their electricity is not available when needed. If they are given credit as if they provide dispatchable electricity (which is EI’s approach), then their combined percentage is 6%. If wind and solar are counted as only replacing fuel, then their combined share of energy supply is about 2% or 3% in 2022. The International Energy Agency (IEA) uses the approach providing the lower indications, as do many researchers.

Section Header: What should India's complexity strategy be?
The key is keeping complexity from rising too much.
Slide 24.

When an economy starts shrinking, as shown in Slide 15, there is a problem with supply lines breaking in an overly complex society. Much of the world experienced some broken supply lines in 2020 and 2021. We can expect more broken supply lines again in future years.

Supply lines are likely to get shorter because of the shortages of diesel and of jet fuel. In particular, fewer goods and services are likely to be shipped across the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean. More trade will be regional in nature. For example, India will probably have a larger share of its total trade with other countries of Southeast Asia than now.

We can expect more fighting among countries because the world will basically be in a situation of “not enough to go around.” India would do well to stay out of these wars.

Intermittency of electrical supply will likely become more of a problem in the future. Replacement parts after storms will be more difficult to obtain.

1. Primary focus for added complexity: Reducing the cost of production of the fuels the economy requires.
• Inexpensive energy that keeps current devices operating is key to staying away from collapse
• More fossil fuels, at inexpensive cost, would be ideal!
• Or new liquid fuels that could be obtained cheaply and work in today's devices
Slide 25.
2. If wind energy can be used only at the times that it is available, its added use might be helpful.
•Simple windmills have been used to pump water for animals for 100+ years
• These are inexpensive to make
• Easy to repair
• Complexity is low
• Electricity from wind might be helpful if it can be used only at the time available
•Example: On a local grid used for charging cell phones and batteries for LED lights
• Solar panels have a major disposal problem
• Tend to poison water supply
• Unless this issue can be worked around, even use on a local grid is not helpful
Slide 26.
3. Poor use of complexity: Putting intermittent wind or solar electricity on the electric grid.
Giving wind and/or solar priority on the grid tends to drive out other electricity providers
• Prices end up too low for all providers
• Other electricity providers need government subsidies to stay in business
• Would need incredibly immense quantity of batteries to provide electricity in the same manner as other providers
•Cost of building and maintaining the electric grid becomes very high
• Main reasons for "wind and solar will save us" narrative are
a) To give citizens hope for the future
b) To provide jobs for people
Slide 27.
4. One complexity focus: India cannot depend as much on exports from other countries in the future.
• China is becoming a less reliable supplier of raw materials to India.
• Amount of international shipping is likely to fall as diesel fuel availability becomes more restricted.
• Planners in India need to think about what essentials are needed:
• Food
• Fresh water
• Clothing
• Basic medicines
• Basic tools, such as hand tools for harvesting rice
• Build essential supply lines within India
Slide 28.
5. Another complexity focus should be population.
• Don't want population growing much
• Focus should be on two-child families
• Keeping Indian traditions is important, too
• Adding laws to substitute for traditions and religious practices is a high-energy approach
• Too much urban population becomes a major problem
• High urban population requires fossil fuels to ship food in; wastes out.
• Discourage immigration to cities
• Make certain that rural incomes are high enough to cover necessities
Slide 29.

It is tempting for high energy economies to forget the importance of traditions and religion. Religions help bind groups together. Their laws and traditions give people a way to live with one another, without having a huge army of police being hired to keep order.

As economies become richer, the belief tends to become: The government can save us from all problems. We no longer need our traditional beliefs. All we need to do is focus on more even distribution of goods and services.

Unfortunately, the economy doesn’t work this way. Governments can print money, but they can’t print additional food and water. With broken supply lines, essential commodities such as fertilizer become unavailable. Population must drop for the economies to get back in balance. This is the reason that wars become more frequent, as complexity limits are hit.

6. Adding highways and airports is tempting, but the energy cost of maintaining them will be high.
• Heavy trucks use diesel, which is in short supply already.
• Jets use jet fuel, which is also in short supply
• Roads and runways are built with fossil fuels
• Unless a new source of cheap energy can be found, it will be difficult to do maintenance for very many years.
• The issue is always putting off collapse.
• In a finite world, nothing is permanent.
Slide 30.
Summary: For sustainability, the goal should be very slow growth with no more complexity added than required.
• No economy can last forever.
• A very slowly growing economy is much more sustainable than a fast-growing economy.
Slide 31.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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2,991 Responses to Can India come out ahead in an energy squeeze?

  1. Ed says:

    Let’s relocate all Israeli Jews to NYC. All 7.2 million.

  2. There is a good possibility that 2024 will become like 1814 in the French Empire

    Several narrow escapes in Jan 2024, things getting worse in Feb 2024 and the End in Mar 2024.

    Sergei Surovikin, the Siberian general who built the defense line in Zaporozhe, would go down in the same ranks with Wellington, although what Surovikin did to the civilization was good will probably be debated for centuries.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      Russian final victory in March?

      that’s only 5 months away.

      they have a bunch of oblasts to annex and will have to finish “demilitarizing” the rest of the western Ukrainian speaking oblasts and probably create a demilitarized buffer zone in the central Ukrainian oblasts which Russia may or may not want to annex.

      lots of stuff to do.

      time will tell.

      • ivanislav says:

        Maybe. I predict, however, that Putin will pussyfoot around and not take Odessa or landlock rump Ukraine. If that happens – that is to say, if they choose not to cash their winning hand – we will know their leadership is compromised beyond redemption.

        • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

          okay we’ll see.

          annexing connected oblasts all the way to Odessa would help to solve the minor Transnistria problem and give Russia total control of the north coast of the Black Sea.

          that sounds too appealing to pass up.

          landlocking Ukraine would be a small bonus.

          Vlad the Great.

  3. MikeJones says:

    Evergrande bankruptcy fears spark a bank run in China
    Bank of Cangzhou and PBOC authorities say all is financially well and that Evergrande’s outstanding loans won’t affect bank’s ability to pay depositors
    The mini-run came after netizens circulated a post that claimed dozens of Chinese banks would need to write off their loans if Evergrande went bankrupt. According to the social media post, Evergrande owes Cangzhou Bank about 3.4 billion yuan (US$466 million). Asia Times could not independently confirm the figure in time for publication.
    The Bank of Cangzhou said its outstanding loans to Evergrande and its affiliates amounted to only 340 million yuan as of October 6, or one-tenth of the amount claimed in the widely circulated social media post. It said it had sufficient lands and properties as collateral to cover any Evergrande-related losses.
    “The overall risk is controllable and will not have a significant impact on the bank’s operations, management and asset quality,” it said.
    However, Chinese media reports said the bank’s statement and “cash wall” have so far failed to assuage its depositors. In China, “cash walls” are commonly seen at corporate events such as the delivery of annual bonuses
    Meanwhile, transparency concerns are rising. Police in Cangzhou said they arrested several people for allegedly spreading rumors that the Bank of Cangzhou will soon go bankrupt.

    This sht is getting real real fast

    • This is one to watch. Bank failures are a major problem in situations like this.

      Most countries don’t have formal programs for bailing out depositors. If they do, it is only for those will relatively small amounts. Big employers and others could find their funds cut off.

      Also, multiple bailouts are a real problem for the economy. There is never enough money set aside for this purpose. Money has to be printed, leading to a situation where the currency outstanding is worth less and less. Inflation would be likely to result. Or governments get overthrown.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I recall seeing mini riots when property prices fell in China … this is a far worse situation as people who put $$$ down years ago — are not getting what they paid for because the apartments are not being built

        Why are they not unhinging?

        Maybe those clips of previous mini riots were fake?

        Who can know … cuz it’s a matrix

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      while it’s true that there will be financial contagions from this…

      “This sht is getting real real fast”

      others see it as slooooow…

      boring dull lethargic plodding slow.

      I see 2024 rising above the horizon.

  4. MikeJones says:

    Indian-Origin Teen Athlete’s Death Not Linked To Covid Vaccine: Singapore Ministry
    14-year-old student-athlete Pranav Madhaik died on Wednesday after he felt unwell during a 400m fitness time trial on October 5.
    Singapore: The Ministry of Health (MOH) has dismissed speculations that the death of a 14-year-old Indian-origin student at a premier Singapore Sports School student earlier this week is linked to COVID-19 vaccination.
    It is “untrue and irresponsible”, reported TODAY newspaper, citing the ministry statement on Saturday.
    Secondary 2 student-athlete Pranav Madhaik died on Wednesday after he felt unwell during a 400m fitness time trial on October 5.
    On Saturday afternoon, the school revealed that the cause of death was cardiac arrest with antecedent cause of congenital malformation of coronary vessels.
    “Based on the Ministry of Health’s vaccination records, the student had received his last dose of Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine more than 18 months ago,” said the ministry. “For an unvaccinated person, the risk of COVID-19 infection leading to severe illness, far outweighs that of vaccination.” In a press statement issued on Saturday, the Singapore Sports School said Pranav told the badminton coach that he was feeling unwell after completing a 400m fitness time trial at about 6.26 pm on October 5.

    There are approximately 100 to 150 sudden cardiac deaths during competitive sports each year in the U.S., according to the American College of Cardiology. While it has become a popular topic, sudden cardiac death in athletes is rare—about 1 in 100,000 to 1 in 300,000 athletes, according to the Cleveland Clinic.Aug 4, 2023 › …
    Cardiac arrest is leading cause of death for young athletes: Here’s how to protect them – Dayton Daily News

    • Rodster says:

      It definitely wasn’t the CV19 vaccines. We know how safe and effective they really are. Ask Pfizer, Moderna, Astra-Zeneca, J&J, Tony Fauci. They’ll each vouch how safe and effective they are.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      On Saturday afternoon, the school revealed that the cause of death was cardiac arrest with antecedent cause of congenital malformation of coronary vessels.

      Notice how they now lie…

  5. MikeJones says:

    Billion-dollar supersize prisons are slated to be built across the U.S. But do they help or hurt public safety?
    Marquise Francis
    Sat, October 14, 2023 at 5:00 AM EDT
    Alabama Corrections Institution Finance Authority late last month approved a final price of $1.08 billion for the 4,000-bed prison now under construction in Elmore County.
    And Alabama isn’t the only state moving forward with plans for larger, pricier prisons, with proponents of such facilities citing the need to address issues of overcrowding, poor sanitation conditions and a lack of mental health resources in the current facilities.
    Nebraska is building a new $350 million, 1,500-bed prison to replace the Nebraska State Penitentiary. Supporters say it will alleviate the overflow of inmates in the state’s prisons, which hold about 50% more people than they were designed for.
    This investment is a key part of our community,” Rob Jeffreys, director of the Nebraska Department of Correctional Services, told CBS affiliate KOLN. “It [provides the] ability to keep people safe.”
    In Georgia, officials have been tasked by the Fulton County Board of Commissioners to find the funds for a $1.69 billion facility with 4,500 beds to replace the current Fulton County Jail — known to locals by its address, Rice Street — which many advocates say is beyond repair.
    “It’s an obligation that we have,” Commissioner Bob Ellis told Atlanta News First.

    …..on the other hand..

    Bianca Tylek, executive director of Worth Rises, a nonprofit dedicated to dismantling the prison industry, believes “the more beds there are, the more people will be put in them.”
    “The issue is not the building,” Tylek told Yahoo News. “It’s the system and the system actors in it.”
    Tylek, one of the nation’s foremost experts on the prison industry, adds that a lack of transparency from jails on inmate deaths and other serious uprisings conflated with a system that disproportionately locks up people of color and poor people is reason enough to take a harder look at the underlying issues.

    Locking people up is a profitable business… especially if you are a judge investing in the prisons

    • Building prisons creates lot of jobs. It helps hold the price of commodities up. Staffing prisons becomes a problem, once they are built.

      From what I have seen, poor people don’t necessarily mind being locked up, especially if their job prospects are poor or they are mentally ill. Someone else takes care of everything they need – food, clothing, a roof over their head, heat in winter. I know that when I was a juror on a trial, one of the policemen testifying talked about homeless people trying to get arrested for some minor offense in the fall, so that they would have shelter for winter.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Vaxxers are mentally ill = maybe we should lock them up — it would be good for the GDP

  6. MikeJones says:

    Seems the Saudis are moving their cheese..

    Time to set the record straight’: Saudi minister defends China’s lending to developing nations
    PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 13 2023 2:57 AM EDT
    China stepped up when people actually shied away from Africa,” Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed al-Jadaan said in Morocco.
    The international community should “show as much love as we can” to help China manage the risks associated with its debt outlay.
    …China stepped up when people actually shied away from Africa. China built infrastructure that they cannot carry with them to China, it will actually be in Africa. China took the risks, when people didn’t want to take the risks,” he said at a panel discussion on debt reform priorities.

    “Instead of actually poking China, I think we should establish here that they did what they needed to do for their own interest, but also to actually help other nations,” al-Jadaan said.
    ..They are taking a risk — a very high risk — which now they are just collecting on that risk,” al-Jadaan said referring to China. “We should just work with them, we should just show them love, work with them and try to make the common framework work.”
    ….U.S. officials are among those who have criticized China for being unwilling to accept losses on loans unless private-sector creditors and multilateral development banks do the same. Consequently, Beijing has sometimes engaged in direct talks with debtor countries.

    Yes, there is a shift in the world order …

    • I expect that US companies are doing some of the same things, especially with “clean energy” investments that they are talking countries into investing in. There are no doubt other “investments” that are primarily of benefit to other. I believe that Michael Hudson writes about this issue. Companies find big investments for countries to make, so that they get the sales and interest income. The countries find themselves with huge debt repayment, and investments that they cannot maintain. It takes a lot of resource to maintain them, even if they are water and sewer systems.

  7. Today is the last day.

    BTW what if you started a war and nobody came/

    • Maybe the result is collapsing governments of the countries that might have sent soldiers. The US government never reopens, for example. China and EU could have similar problems.

      • Dennis L. says:

        I think you are right or close:

        Very few politicians are really needed, e.g. the Founding Fathers, small, talented group. Many need a job, “doing good” sounds good, getting paid to do good is even better, name some current idea; make a parade and get in front and lead it, get paid to be the leader.

        Military graft is maybe very difficult when making bullets, easier with an F35. The US may be out of bullets, cease production of targets “e.g. aircraft carriers” and lose graft which politically is facilitated by jobs. There is little graft possible in storing bullets perhaps.

        Killing without bullets is a challenge, dirty, hard, close-up work.

        Dennis L.

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “BTW what if you started a war and nobody came/”

      what if they started a war between Hamas and Israel, and MORE groups came in?

      war is natural.

      escalation is natural too.

  8. postkey says:

    “Hamas wants to destroy Israel, right? But as Mehdi Hasan shows in a new video on blowback, Israeli officials admit they helped start the group.”?

    • From the article:

      “Hamas, to my great regret, is Israel’s creation,” Avner Cohen, a former Israeli religious affairs official who worked in Gaza for more than two decades, told the Wall Street Journal in 2009. Back in the mid-1980s, Cohen even wrote an official report to his superiors warning them not to play divide-and-rule in the Occupied Territories, by backing Palestinian Islamists against Palestinian secularists. “I … suggest focusing our efforts on finding ways to break up this monster before this reality jumps in our face,” he wrote.

      They didn’t listen to him. And Hamas, as I explain in the fifth installment of my short film series for The Intercept on blowback, was the result. To be clear: First, the Israelis helped build up a militant strain of Palestinian political Islam, in the form of Hamas and its Muslim Brotherhood precursors; then, the Israelis switched tack and tried to bomb, besiege, and blockade it out of existence.

    • drb753 says:

      Strong evidence in favor of the idea that this war was started by the usual suspects.

      • Student says:

        At the moment, in my view, this war seems to reach mutual objectives.
        From the Israeli side, it is favourable opportunity to push some thousands of Palestinians out from Gaza and conquer some territory, from the side of who backs Palestinians, it is a favourable opportunity to show how bad and wrong can be Israeli behaviour and raise the Palestinians’ cause to the western eyes, because it was becoming a low intensity conflict that nobody was caring anymore about it.
        The end game maybe is to have either a very strong Israel or a sort of end of the Apartheid in Israel.
        Because a 2 States solution is clear that it is not possible anymore.
        Actually there are too many Jewish settlers in West Bank by now, therefore there is not anymore the possibility to have from one side of the territory only Jews and on the other side of the territory only Palestinians (who, for those who don’t know are Muslims but also Christians).

      • Student says:

        Additionally, it is a very opportunity to slowly switch off the Ukranian conflict and the importance of Zelensky or, in any case, divert the attention of what was becomjng a bad result of western strategy.

        • drb753 says:

          Yes, if there is a thing I have learned, they initiate processes with multiple goals in mind. After an outcome is obtained, a new process based on the new reality.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Or maybe there was no actual UKEY conflict… it was all faked… orchestrated… styrofoam war…

    • Rodster says:

      It would be NO surprise to me if this was true. The same government that endlessly backs Israel is the same government that created ISIS when they invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein.

      These types of events and outcomes are always good for the war machines and their respective economies.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It’s useful to have an enemy… even if it’s a contrived one

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Two days before the Israeli Rave Massacre, where at least 260 people were killed, the organisers moved the location of the festival to within earshot of the Gaza Strip.

    Two days before the attack, Hamas were “rocked by Israeli spy penetrating its highest ranks”.

    • lurker says:

      once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, thrice is enemy action; 10 coincidences are beyond any reasonable odds. that’s an excellent article by the naked emperor.

    • The concert was moved, two days before the attack. It is hard to believe that long-term planning went into attacking it.

    • drb753 says:

      Nice post. I would give you a like were it not for all the drivel you usually post.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        What’s a like? And why would Fast Eddy — the entity with the 1500HP intelligence.. give any f789s if anyone likes his comments… in fact quite the opposite — if too many folks like his comments — HE will believe HE is losing his edge …and turning into a MOREON

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in Canada: Prices Drop Further as Sales Slow and New Listings Jump Further

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    The all-mighty American consumer, whose spending drives the economy, is reaching a breaking point and is on the verge of folding, according to former Walmart CEO Bill Simon.

    Mr. Simon told CNBC in a recent interview that a series of factors—political polarization, inflation, and high interest rates—were all working together to undermine consumers and their propensity to spend.

    “That sort of pileup wears on the consumer and makes them wary,” Mr. Simon told the outlet. “For the first time in a long time, there’s a reason for the consumer to pause.”

    Consumer spending is a major driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for roughly two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).

    • Give consumers more low-interest credit and subsidies, then they will spend more. Require that student loans be paid and end subsidies for day care, and the situation will get much worse.

  12. Fast Eddy says:

    One begins to think the goal is to ensure the MOREONS don’t live too long.

    Nothing wrong with that

    • ivanislav says:

      this is worth a watch and the NTP report is worth a read, especially for anyone considering having kids

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    Three months ago, hit German soprano Patricia Janecková, 25, married Slovakian actor Vlastimil Burda, who she called the “love of my life.” Now she’s dead.

    Patricia was diagnosed with breast cancer at 23 years old in 2022. She had a double mastectomy and thought she was in the clear. But her breast cancer came raging back, having metastasized to her bones and organs.

    Gosh… that sucks to be her.

    And… she’s dead

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha .. lost 81B dollars hahaha

    • I haven’t had a chance to watch this, but if Evergrande is being liquidated, this is big news. Country Garden’s default adds to the mess.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Evergrande has been in default since 2021… gives new meaning to the term zombie corporation …

  15. Ed says:

    No nation on Earth cares about the Palestinians. Muslim nations are not into solidarity.

    Which nation dies next? Iran, Israel, Syria?

    Is the US going to become a full military society?

    • MikeJones says:

      It’s even worse than that, my Friend
      It’s Hell on Earth and World Will Be Annihilated if We Don’t Find Peace, Warns Celente
      122,163 views · 1 day ago#stockmarket #investing #finance
      When all else fails, they take you to war,” says Gerald Celente, founder of the Trends Journal online magazine. In today’s episode, he calls for “every human being that believes in their God to stand up now and do something” as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict unfolds. “If we don’t stop this now, if adults don’t become adults, it’s over,” he says. Gerald argues that given today’s heightened geopolitical tensions, “World War III has already begun,” not to mention that the U.S. has been experiencing economic and political turmoil domestically. “The economy is ready to crash. You saw what was going on with the equality markets. The economy is failing. They’re getting people’s minds off with war,” he claims. Watch today’s episode to learn more

      This was a courageous & sobering interview Daniela and Gerald – thank you🙏🏾 I heard the word “humanity” mentioned throughout, and this is the very consciousness we so desperately need if we are to survive. The “walking dead” now lead us back into tribalism, cannibalism, and perpetual war… even to dramas that portend the end of life on Earth. Are we really that imbecile to watch this on tv like it’s a video game? I’m afraid the answer is yes… most of us are😎

      • Dennis L. says:

        Disclaimer, didn’t read or watch.

        Celente has never been right, sells fear. Followed him for a while, sort of like Misch. Recall Misch recommended selling BRK-B at about $60/share; you can do your own research on current price.

        My guess is “humanity” is the result of the fabric of the universe which evolves in ways we do not understand, yet. Whatever the fabric is the results are positive only 20% of the time, but when they work, they overshadow all mistakes. Were one a gambler the motto would be, “cut your losses and let your profits run.”

        Earth is biology, it has been here for a long time, my bet is it will go forward, it is a good bet; let your profits run.

        Dennis L.

    • It was always militaristic since Civil War.

      After all the redshirts (civil war veterans) died, there was a respite 1900-1941 (US involvement in the Great War was not that really emphasized) but after 1941 it has been fully militaristic

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    More Death and Despair

    Oncologist: Late-Stage Cancers Are Devastating Students After College Vaccine Mandates

    72 tragic tales of lymphoma, leukemia, brain cancer, and more. This isn’t normal. This is criminal.

    Turbo Death from Turbo Cancers: “We’re in Trouble,” Says Dr. Ryan Cole

    “We’re seeing young people get leukemias, and they appear in the emergency room. And they’re gone within a week.”

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Not everyone gets vax injured…

    But all Vaxxers have had their immune systems hijacked at the DNA level

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    DNA contaminants – an ‘accident’ too far?

    How many coincidences are believable?

    Kevin McKernan’s demonstration of high levels of DNA in the vaccine vials has now been replicated by six other laboratories globally. There are strict limits placed on the amount of DNA allowed because of the risk of this foreign DNA integrating into the human genome. Oddly the EMA limits the amount as a ratio with how much mRNA is present rather than giving an absolute amount. These higher levels were exceeded by 20-30 times.

    The vaccine mRNA was manufactured by vats of bacteria which used a template of DNA to mass produce the mRNA. It was this DNA template that should have been removed during purification steps that was present in the vials.

    Cancer genomics expert, Dr. Phillip Buckhaults was one of the scientists to replicate the measurements and expressed huge concerns about how the DNA was in an optimal state for integration into the human genome. It was not circular, as in the original plasmid, but in linear lengths. Furthermore, each strand would have a similar chance of integration but the DNA present was hugely fragmented such that one strand might have broken down into 100 fragments increasing the risk of integration by 100 fold.

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    norm finds solace in his ignorance

  20. ivanislav says:

    US deindustrialization means we cannot even produce uniforms:

    >> In an Instagram video, Commandant Gen. Eric Smith addressed service members’ concerns over an inability to find and purchase woodland-patterned “cammies” in an ongoing manufacturing shortage. He announced that as the problem continues, local members will be allowed to wear alternate uniforms contrary to Marine standards.

    • More insight into what is going on. The missiles being sent into Israel are quite small. Israel would like to move the Palestinians in Gaza to Egypt, and let Egypt deal with them. Egypt is willing to provide aid, but it doesn’t want one million or more Palestinians.

  21. Mirror on the wall says:

    Over 100,000 have protested in the center of London today in support of Palestine and to oppose the Israeli assault on Gaza.

    The streets of London echoed to the chants of “Palestine must be free from the river to the sea!” and “Free, free Palestine!”

    > Live: Palestinian supporters march in London

    • Rodster says:

      What I find odd is how Israel is being coddled, supported and encouraged to continue the Palestinian massacre. Governments are blocking access and censoring all negative voices to what Israel is doing and discouraging pro Palestinian support.

      At least Caitlin Johnstone is one of the few calling out Israel for the massacre. When you give a 2 hrs notice to clear out the main hospital in Gaza with patients who are being treated and some in critical care before dropping bombs. That’s just plain wrong.

      Even the UN has called out Israel about proceeding with the brutal massacre in the Gaza Strip. So why is it okay for Israel to do it to the Palestinians but it was wrong for Hitler to do it to the Jews?

      • This is another situation of a standard narrative being provided, depending upon which country a person lives in. “Israel can do no wrong,” is the view that leaders of OECD countries are pushing. Non-OECD countries think the opposite.

        Individual citizens of OECD countries often see what is going on, and think that what Israel is doing is terrible.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        There is no good answer to that … other than … this is why humans need to be exterminated… there is no fixing them… humans are vile…

  22. Mirror on the wall says:

    The South African president has spoken out in support of Palestine and he has condemned Israel as an occupational and apartheid state.

    > ‘Palestinians Fighting Occupation’: South African President Rips ‘Oppressive’ Israel Amid Gaza War

    South African President Cyril Ramaphosa blasted Israel for attacking the civilian population in Gaza amid its war with Hamas. Ramaphosa called Israel ‘oppressive and apartheid’. He also termed Israel’s ground invasion in north-Gaza as genocide. Watch this video to know more.

    • Rodster says:

      I’m glad people are finally calling out Israel for being an apartheid regime. The world is finally seeing Israel’s true colors. They are not God’s chosen people. They are a nation/government.

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        the ancient Hebrews had self-proclaimed themselves as the chosen people.

        in their fictional writings invented by their unknowledgeable uneducated supersstitious minds.

        it’s quite unimpressive for them to designate themselves with such a lofty label, with no evidence to back it up.

        in modern terms, it’s massformationpsychosis.

        religiousmassformationpsychosis continues to be a root cause of many of the world’s problems.

  23. Mirror on the wall says:

    The four month UKR ‘big manoeuvre counteroffensive’ is formally over.

    UKR has not penetrated any Russian lines, UKR has lost 90,000 manpower, 557 tanks and 1,900 armoured vehicles.

    Russians have now adopted combat postures along the entire line and so the UKR offensive is formally over.

    > Ukraine Unable To Rip Moscow’s Defences, Calls-Off Counteroffensive; Russian Envoy Drops Bombshell

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “Ukraine must be free from the (Dnieper) river to the (Black) sea!”

      • Tim Groves says:

        Yes, as a slogan, that has a lot going for it. Although the Azov Brigades will not like it one bit.

        And of course:

        “The chickens of Kiev are coming home to roost.”

    • Fast Eddy says:

      hahahaha… just as Gaza starts UKEY ends… what a f789ing joke

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        then the joke must be on you, because the Russian Special Military Operation has a long way to go.

        you can try to force your simpleton ideas onto the world, but they usually are a mismatch with reality.

        two wars now, try to keep up.

  24. Dennis L. says:

    Wealth overhead and it is between Mars and Jupiter, my favorite landfill site.

    Nasa is going to it, will arrive January 2026 and map it, probably simple academic curiosity.

    “If the mission could kindly bring the asteroid back to Earth, every person on the planet — all 7.8 billion of us — would get roughly $1.2 billion, based on current metal prices.”

    For the doubters, take the value of this rock $10×10^21, put whatever number you wish to its embedded energy, compare that value to all the fossil fuels extracted on earth and my guess it works, the stars skip mining and refining and they have the advantage of scale – like scale beyond the mass of the earth. With the size of these numbers, rounding errors cannot even be found, round to the nearest billion and it is close enough.

    They say it is rare, sure, but the universe is very large, start a chain, park this stuff near Jupiter, strip off what you will, bump the rest into Jupiter, burp.

    Enough positive thoughts for the AM.

    Dennis L.

    • ivanislav says:

      Let’s research whether we can redirect it to smash earth.

      • Dennis L. says:


        Coincidence? Elon wishes to build a colony on Mars, this lump is between Mars and Jupiter, Mars has a lower gravity than earth. That would make for an interesting poker game, “I raise you a trillion, can we see your hand.” A trillion out of a quaddrillion is only 10^12, not even close to one asteroid at 10^21., that is a billion times more wealth than a trillion.

        Space, what a wonderful place to manufacture, no friction, free energy, free low temperature for quantum computers(2.7 kelvin), metals beyond imagination all made the old fashion way, supernova, assemble the elements atom by atom, additive manufacturing at its best. In fossil fuels, what is the value of solar energy perpendicular to the main orbital disk of the sun? Would anyone miss it?

        I cannot be so black as to wish to smash earth, earth is biology and it is beautiful beyond description. But biology alone is harsh it its own way, knowledge and “progress” has made life such that we have time to contemplate the wonders of our spaceship and the universe itself.

        Dennis L

    • Slow Paul says:

      Now we only need to find that fossil fuel asteroid so we can spend our billions…

    • MudGod says:

      If you believe anything NASA says then I got a bridge to sell you. They are nothing but a film production company that gives you nothing but computer generated images. Go to youtube and type in Robert Simmon “Mr. Blue Marble”. He explains how they create those images that they feed you. And then go to Eric Dubays channel and find his 200 proofs video. NASA can’t even give us 1 proof of their claims.

  25. Somebody mentioned the British propaganda of the Germans crucifying a Canadian soldier during the 2nd Battle of Ypres in 1915.

    While I don’t think it actually happened, since crucifying someone takes time and there was no time to waste doing that, the Canadians during that battle harmed civilization by inventing a method to avoid gas attacks, namely soaking their underwear with urine and breathing thru it.

    Whoever invented that method harmed civilization , not as much as Gabby Princip, Joe Gallieni or Chucky Fitzclarence, but still to a significant degree since the idiot caused 3 more years of destruction in the West.

    It seems the Canadians, being relegated as backwater people, had an ulterior motive to destroy Civilization and make a world where backwater people like them were treated better.

    Here is the list of 10 Greatest Canadians.

    10. Wayne Gretzky, hockey player
    9. Alexander Graham Bell, Scottish.
    8. John Macdonald, Scottish. It seems they put anyone who had something to do with Canada as ‘Canadians’.
    7. Don Cherry, hockey commentator.
    6. Lester Pearson, politician.
    5. David Suzuki, tree hugger.
    4. Frederick Banting, who invented insulin. Probably the sole contribution of Canada to human civilization.
    3. Pierre Trudeau, politician
    2. Terry Fox. i will punch him later
    1. Tommy Douglas, who introduced Medicare to Canada.

    Excluding Banting and the Scots, the people featured are hockey people, politicians, a tree hugger and someone who gave away free shit.

    In other words, other than Banting, the Canadian contribution to human civilization seems to be quite lacking.

    And for whatever reasons the Canadians think Terry Fox is a great person. Fox promised to cross all of Canada, but he didn’t even leave Ontario. in American analogy, it is like someone who promises to run from New York to Los Angeles, but stops at some place in Illinois, not crossing even Mississippi. What is great with that?

    • ivanislav says:

      Isn’t Elon Musk technically Canadian (along with South African and American)? And don’t you think Elon is good for Type 1 civilization?

    • raviuppal4 says:

      Tks Kulm . I was not aware that Banting was Canadian . His greatest contribution is that he made his devolpment available for ” free ” for humanity . Very few people know that after Fukushima disaster the first import by the Japanese was not food but insulin . I discussed this with my family doctor and he was like ” what s**t ” . I asked him how many people will die if insulin was not available ? He fell of his chair . 🙂 . Merci Mijnheer .

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Don Cherry has been disgraced

      Terry Fox did not leave Ontario because his cancer relapsed and he died

      • #11, Louis Riel, is even more disagreeable

        he was a rebel who eventually got killed because he hated what would have been the Dominion of Canada. He was an anti-Canadian, and he did not contribute to Civilization anyways.

        Terry Fox was no different from all these salespeople running around in OFW promising properties far away. He made a promise which he had no guarantee of fulfilling, and he didn’t even make halfway thru what he claimed. He should have assessed his own situation more carefully before claiming he could run across Canada in one leg. Since he was a failure, I don’t really consider him to be great.

  26. Rodster says:

    “New York Refuses To Give Big Oil More Money For Offshore Wind Projects”

    Excerpt: The New York state authorities have rejected a request by Orsted, BP, and Equinor for raising the price of electricity in future power purchase contracts featuring offshore wind energy.

    Offshore wind developers have been pressured by rising raw material and component costs, and higher borrowing costs, which has cast doubt over the viability of many projects. Indeed, Reuters reported that some projects planned for the waters off the coast of New York may need to be reconsidered in light of the authorities’ decision.

    “Sunrise Wind’s viability and therefore ability to be constructed are extremely challenged without this adjustment,” Orsted told Reuters.

    • Offshore wind is hugely expensive. Those who build it are discovering that the repair costs are terribly high because of the salt water and the huge size of the wind turbines. There is a need for special ships to put up the turbines, and helicopters to service them. There also needs to be transmission to shore. There is no way that this is really a “renewable project.” It is a high cost energy sink.

      • I still wonder how they could get into one of those things, in a situation like that, & do heavy repair work (& with the weather in New York!)
        The whole thing, without fossil fuels, seems a self-contradiction.

        • I understand that repairs tend to be so frequent that repair people need to live in specially built housing near the turbines.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            When the MOREONS see those monstrosities on hill tops … it gives them confidence that the future is one of endless prosperity and pillage…

            Therefore it is important that these totems remain operational – no matter what the cost

  27. Dennis L. says:

    Well, apparently Gail has more data supporting the thesis wind is a loser. So the answer is not “Blowing in the Wind.”

    Guess: There are no simple answers, politicians need to have something so they grab at straws.

    Meanwhile, wealth beyond counting is overhead, but they you have heard this one before.

    Dennis L.

  28. MG says:

    We live in a crazy world of competition that believes that the human powers are growing and that we are entitled to have cheaper and cheaper products. That is not the truth, because this approach is on fact a cannibalism.

    • Dennis L. says:

      Yes, of course:

      “That is not the truth, because this approach is on fact a cannibalism.”

      But the universe is not only infinite, it appears to be expanding an increasing rate – we really don’t understand why.

      The fabric of the universe showed us how to use fossil fuels, they were but a stepping stone. We refined metals from ore which is essentially a degraded metal subject to various contaminations, e.g. oxygen in the case of iron. To get those ores, we needed to mine and disturb huge swaths of earth. That is now over, there more stuff, but it is so deep in the gravity well as to be worthless.

      It is time to be moving on, not off earth, but moving mining, refining(not necessary in space) and manufacturing off spaceship earth. Count me green with a general understanding of the necessity of inorganic, non-living “stuff.”

      You all have solved the problem, the current trends will not work, no reason to try them, but that does not mean other things will also not work.

      Think back to fire if you will, burning trees and some philosopher pointing out how it can’t continue, too few trees. Basically we stopped burning trees. There is some sort of charcoal reduction site north of the quad cities, it ceased operation with elimination of trees. The process moved forward elsewhere.

      Dennis L.

      • MG says:

        When there is a lack of workers and the lack of purchasing power, the competition crashes: there is nobody to compete with and nothing to compete for.

  29. Tim Groves says:

    Here’s a very short video of Joe Biden, when he was running for Veep, lecturing a journalist about zionism:

    Is this the same Biden we all know day as Prez? Same voice? Same aura? Same visage? Same nose? I don’t think so, but don’t let me influence your judgement. Just you your instinct. You intuition. It’s a natural gift.

    • Biden has gone downhill with age.

      • drb753 says:

        Physically. Ethically and intellectually he has not moved one iota from where he always was.

      • I AM THE MOB says:

        This is genius. Let the right win the elections so all the left-wing figure heads from covid can exit the stage.

        Mission accomplished.

        And when the next pandemic comes, it will be right wing leaders in charge imposing lockdowns/mandates. And the right won’t be able to oppose their own creation.

        Double Play.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        How old was he when he was showering with his pubescent daughter?

        norm .. can you check the diary for a date

        • lolololololol—-eddy–eddy—eddy.

          why must we be repeatedly told about your obsessions and inadequacies?

          incessant sexual reference does not tell anyone what they are
          it tells us what you are not.

          and at the same time what you aspire to be.

          so keep up with your obsession/confession

          it’s always good to be aware of these things—somehow, i’ve never felt the need to write rude words on walls.

          even in pathetic numbers.

    • ivanislav says:

      Our fearless leader. Mencken had a quote on this.

    • Tsubion says:

      Non-essential activity.

    • Rodster says:

      I’ve also read that shoppers in the USA are now choosing store brand items over the more expensive national brands, to save money. This was confirmed by the national brand companies. I’ve been buying store brands for decades and it wasn’t to save money because in most cases, it’s hard to tell them apart.

    • Jan says:

      In Austria some supermarkets guarantee that their store brands are insect free, because they have control over the ingredients.

    • “Family” oriented restaurants seem to be doing especially poorly. Restaurants associated with bars seem to be doing less badly, but they have a hard time finding and keeping enough staff.

      There are quite a number of restaurants that are now “take-out only.” In our area, “traditional” Chinese restaurants seem to be mostly take-out only.

      I often wonder how some restaurants keep operating. Their overhead seems to be terribly high for the few customers they have.

      • Rodster says:

        In my area, a few Chinese restaurants have closed their doors. The big draw has always been, lots of cheap food. Prices have gone up on average by 60% and you now get less food. A Burger King also closed in my area because they couldn’t get enough help and wages were to high. They tried to keep the low prices.

        More and more are eating at home these days.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’d like to say that leads to more healthy outcomes however most are likely eating frozen pizza washed down with buckets of soda

          People are MOREONS – they willingly poison themselves

          • Tim Groves says:

            Eddy, that’s a shocking thing to say!

            Terribly indiscrete.

            Mind you, around my way, they do at least heat up the frozen pizza before ramming it into their mouths.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        With all the vax injured… who wants to work as a server at a restaurant when there are plenty of management level jobs available for those who have no experience?

        Here in NZ what I am hearing is that a Clown World is in play — managers who have no ability to manage but they get the jobs cuz there are not enough experienced managers.

        I am told by two workers at a nearby hotel with a wine tasting + restaurant outlet tell me the restaurant is dying.. the reason for this is that the level of service has collapsed… the managers are lazy useless f789s … so the front of the house staff are not managed so they are useless lazy f789s…

        I saw this last year when after a bike ride a mate and I stopped in to have a beer… the place was empty … the one staff inside was at the bar polishing glasses… she saw us but did not acknowledge us nor bring us a menu or offer any service.

        After about 10 minutes we got up and walked out. We have never returned.

        Obviously the situation has not improved — word spreads…and businesses dwindles…

  30. MG says:

    Russia invented a new video game called Special Military Operation, where you can kill and be killed for pure fun under the leadership of the senile individuals from the 20th century.

    It does not matter that Gazprom, that was funnelling the western debt into Russia, is now becoming worthless.

    • MikeJones says:

      Sad to report’s not a new game…

      Harvey Keitel on the well-educated
      6 days ago
      The desire to learn and understand is far more valuable and noble than the completion of a curriculum. From natural curiosity comes wisdom.
      Harvey Keitel is right. Formal education has absolutely nothing to do with a good heart and moral code, and especially, talent.
      Facts. As a academic I’m ashamed of how many ppl worship fornal education as if it makes you a prophet. Plenty of educated fools and manipulative wizards

      The ones deemed educated are marching us to extinction

  31. Tim Groves says:

    Bruce Ohara writes:

    This week, events in the Middle East have me revisiting memories from more than a half century ago.

    When I was a naive and idealistic 19-year- old, I became a convinced pacifist, and volunteered with the Quakers to do summer recreation work with poor Catholic kids in war-torn Belfast.

    The second week I was there, the IRA ambushed and killed a British soldier. The next day, British Army units swarmed through our neighbourhood several times, arresting dozens of young men, and beating up scores more.

    More than once that day, I was stopped and ordered to lean spread-eagled against a wall, while an army squad took turns interrogating us. (You had to be sure to keep your arms and legs spread as wide as possible the whole time, or you risked a rifle butt hard up your crotch.) Talking back was ill-advised, what with the paratroopers expressing a fervent desire to: “Teach you bastards a lesson you’ll never forget.”

    I remember asking Jimmy McVickers, one of the local Catholic volunteers, why the IRA would do something so guaranteed to cause hardship for all the men in the community. “It’s not as though killing one British soldier is going to hasten the arrival of a free Ireland,” I observed.

    “Recruitment,” was Jimmy’s response. Whenever the IRA was short of volunteers, they would kill a British soldier, knowing if they did so the British Army would so brutally terrorize the community that the IRA would get a bunch of new recruits, and a big influx of donations, in the days that followed.

    A few weeks later, I was taking a group of children to the local park. As we reached the top of a small hill, an IRA sniper crouched just below and behind us opened fire on an army post directly in front of us.

    Afterwards, I remember talking about it with Jimmy, angry the sniper had so callously used me and the children as human shields: “He was taking a big chance the army sentry wouldn’t shoot back and kill one of the neighbourhood children.”

    “If the army had shot back and killed a child, the IRA would get three month’s worth of donations and new recruits overnight,” replied Jimmy: “For the IRA, that would be like winning the lottery.”

    To their credit, the British Army eventually figured out what the game was. They stopped going on brutal rampages every time a soldier was killed or wounded. Which, over time, starved the IRA for money and new recruits. That opened the way for the women’s peace movement to build bridges between the Protestant and Catholic communities, which, in turn, laid the groundwork for the Peace Accords.

    Why am I remembering those events now? Well, it’s pretty clear to me that Hamas went out of their way to be as brutal as possible in murdering young people and children during their recent incursion into Israel. Though Western media wants them to have done this only because “they are monsters”, I strongly suspect Hamas’ actions were quite deliberately and consciously designed to provoke a murderous lust for vengeance in the Israeli leadership.

    Hamas wanted the Israelis to do exactly what the Israelis are now doing. Cutting off food, electricity and water to the Gaza Strip, bombing hundreds of high-rise buildings into rubble, indiscriminately killing women, children and the elderly: these are all war crimes, every bit as much as the slaughter of innocents by Hamas was a war crime.

    In North America and Europe, our airwaves are still saturated by horror stories of young Israeli revellers being gunned down in the dessert.

    The rest of the world moved on from that story days ago. They’ve been watching dead Palestinian children being pulled from the rubble of shattered apartment blocks. Every day, they’re hearing about Palestinians without food or water, shivering in the dark, waiting for the next bomb to fall. When the war is finally over, those are the memories that will live on in the non-Western world.

    By manipulating Israel into an enraged orgy of vengeance, Hamas has succeeded in destroying every bridge Israel has built with Arab nations in recent years.

    Palestine, and the liberation of Palestine, will once again be a cause celebre in the Arab World. Jihadi armies the world over will be swimming in new recruits. Israelis will be afraid to leave Israel – probably for good reason.

    If Israel were to step back from sending it’s army into the Gaza Strip, I think there’s still some chance Hisbollah, Syria and the West Bank would restrict themselves to small, symbolic attacks.

    If Israel follows through on its stated plans to send 300,000 soldiers into Gaza, I think it’s pretty much a given that Hisbollah in Lebanon will unleash thousands of rockets and drones on Israel. The West Bank will also enter the conflict. Perhaps Syria as well.

    War will ruin an already shaky Israeli economy. Depending on how far the war spreads, Israel will end up somewhere between badly damaged and devastated.

    If Hamas wins their equivalent of the lottery, Israel will attack Iran. If that happens, I’m pretty sure the number of Israeli dead will number in the tens of thousands.

    If I were the Chinese Government, I would have traded a hundred Chinese hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles for a supertanker full of Iranian oil several months ago. I’d now have my fingers crossed that the US Government is stampeded into taking part in Israeli air strikes against Iran.

    Afterwards, I’m sure the Chinese Government will publicly express profound regret that Chinese missiles had sent so many US warships to the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea.

    Privately, of course, there will be much jubilation in Beijing. The US is not the only nation that can weaken its enemies with proxy wars, after all.

    Will anyone in the Israeli or American Governments stop long enough to question the wisdom of doing exactly what their enemies want them to do? It’s possible, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.

    Feelings are running so high on this issue, I am sure that some readers will see me as strongly anti-Palestinian. Others will undoubtedly see me as stridently anti-Israeli. I am neither. I am strongly anti-massive-and-senseless-carnage. And I am stridently anti-World-War-Three.

    • Jan says:

      Consistent explanation, thanks! It does not explain all, though, as probably the Israelis have not too vehemently tried to avoid it and Katar is said to have contributed some money. Enough room for conspiracy theories.

    • drb753 says:

      Love me unintended consequences. Israel, you must have all noticed, has been hemming and hawing its way into Gaza, what with the little faith they have in their big protector and its industrial capacity. Meanwhile Russia is advancing, away from the limelight.

      • ivanislav says:

        In the recent Alistair Crooke interview with Mercouris and Diesen, he states that Israel was waiting for the US to become weak enough for Israel to make its move, meaning that the US was actually against Israeli maximalist ambitions. It was kind of the reverse of what I would have expected, but he knows more about Israel’s thinking and Israeli-US politics than I do.

        • drb753 says:

          It would surprise me. Israel must know that as soon as diesel runs out they will have to leave. Crooke is a journalist of repute but it does not compute for me.

    • hkeithhenson says:

      “To their credit, the British Army eventually figured out what the game was. They stopped going on brutal rampages every time a soldier was killed or wounded. Which, over time, starved the IRA for money and new recruits. That opened the way for the women’s peace movement to build bridges between the Protestant and Catholic communities, which, in turn, laid the groundwork for the Peace Accords.”

      This is true but there was another factor going on. Over the years leading up to this time, the Irish women cut the number of children to emplacement. With low or zero population growth, the income per capita rose. This made the future look brighter and that shut off much of the support for the IRA.

      The underlying population growth in Gaza and much of the Arab world remains high. I don’t see how the women can go against the culture.

      “Why am I remembering those events now? Well, it’s pretty clear to me that Hamas went out of their way to be as brutal as possible in murdering young people and children during their recent incursion into Israel.”

      Agree. On interesting thing has come out that Iran was surprised by Hamas.

      Otherwise, good point.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I do miss the IRA + Sien Fein >>>> and the chaos….

      I am told by the Irish that this remains on simmer … and there continue to be small scale outbreaks of violence… what would it take to get this back in play?

  32. Ed says:

    This new war is so cool it comes with daily civilian kill numbers just like Vietnam. 700 Gazans killed today.

    • chngtg says:

      FE, how easy is it for people to have “almost real time” tally of the dead, especially in a “bombed out, rubble-strewn war zone”?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Vax Deaths are much more personal … more filled with SCHAD

      700 is meaningless.. when there are 8B more who cares.

      They are just like cockroaches anyway — ‘cept they are stooopider.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I feel just like an Elder when I make those comments

  33. MikeJones says:

    NASA is visiting an asteroid valued at more than the entire world economy’s worth, but that’s not why it’s going there
    Grace Eliza Goodwin,Jenny McGrath
    Fri, October 13, 2023 at 1:46 PM EDT
    NASA has announced a new mission to a metal-rich asteroid called 16 Psyche.
    The metals that 16 Psyche is thought to contain would be worth $100,000 quadrillion on Earth.
    But NASA isn’t going to mine the asteroid for its resources.
    NASA is visiting an asteroid in our solar system worth more than the entire world economy, but that’s not why it’s going there.
    The space agency launched an uncrewed spacecraft today to explore the potato-shaped asteroid called Psyche.
    Scientists believe that Psyche is mostly made of rock and metal, with metal making up about 30% to 60% of the asteroid.
    Some believe that Psyche contains metals like iron and nickel, a researcher who has studied the asteroid told
    The metals that Psyche is thought to contain would be worth over $100,000 quadrillion if they were found on Earth — that’s more than the worth of the entire world economy, the Psyche mission’s lead scientist, Lindy Elkins-Tanton, told
    But NASA isn’t going to Psyche for the money, nor does it have the technology to even mine the asteroid in the first place.
    NASA’s scientists are eager to learn more about Psyche, because the asteroid could provide clues to Earth’s own core, including how it formed and grew.
    Scientists have hints about how 16 Pysche looks thanks to a computer-generated 3D model. It seems to have two craters, but they won’t know for sure until the asteroid’s gravitational pull captures the spacecraft. That’s expected to happen in July 2029.
    Then Psyche — the spacecraft — will spend two years orbiting the asteroid, taking photos, mapping the surface, and collecting other data about its composition.

    • drb753 says:

      They are totally out to lunch.

    • Jan says:

      If you have 1kg of gold, it is worth a fortune. If you have of gold, it is not worth one billion times a fortune but junk.

      • MikeJones says:

        But it makes a good bait
        They even pointed out they don’t know how to do it

    • Fast Eddy says:

      This is the PR Team having fun seeing how far they can push nonsense and still have the MOREONS buy in

      MOREONS are very stupid they believe India is on the moon and babies have been beheaded

  34. MikeJones says:

    Corporate America faces a trillion-dollar debt reckoning
    With interest rates set to stay higher for longer, who will bear the brunt?
    Big american companies are living in a debt dreamland. Although cheap borrowing has fuelled the growth of corporate profits for decades, the biggest firms have been largely insulated from the effects of the Federal Reserve’s recent bout of monetary tightening. That is because many of them borrowed plentifully at low, fixed interest rates during the covid-19 pandemic. The tab must be settled eventually by refinancing debt at a much higher rate of interest. For now, though, the so-called maturity wall of debt falling due looks scalable.

  35. Fast Eddy says:

    Funny how the ‘war’ seems to have stopped… as soon as the Gaza false flag was launched

  36. Fast Eddy says:

    I abandoned the book recommendation from Yeadon — sheeesh… terrible stuff… WTF is he thinking?

    Anyhow … there is this

    I am only a few chapters in and am at a part describing how malaria – cholera – yellow fever — decimated these settlers… many died … most were wracked with debilitating chronic illnesses…

    You know why?

    Cuz this was before humans had the means to wipe out the vectors that spread these diseases … when we paved over the swamps and the other habitats for mossies etc… the diseases mostly disappeared.

    Guess what’s gonna happen when oil runs out billions die and you are out there on your doomie farm…. (let’s pretend you don’t die from cancer from the ponds)

    Still time to abandon your normalcy bias and get some Super Fent

  37. JMS says:

    Portuguese drivers with no patience for Gretanian brats intent on undermining their love relationship with oil. Which shows they won’t go gentle into that sweet night of less and less, except of course if the injections do what Dr. FE promise they will.
    In any case, as an oil fan, I totally approve of this conduct, and only regret that the guy with the hockey stick didn’t show more vigourouly his discontent.

    • People believe the nonsense they are told about renewables being the way of the future.

      • JMS says:

        It’s not even a question of belief, as these kids are simply paid to protest. For many disqualified young people, protest business can be an opportunity to cash in a few bucks. Better than having to wake up at seven AM to spend eight hours in a shitty, poorly paid job.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          It is nonsense… of course… but it is useful nonsense … it is hopium.

          Hopium is necessary — when a situation becomes hopeless

          Our situation is beyond hopeless

  38. Mirror on the wall says:

    “Israel’s operation in Gaza has killed nearly 1,800 people so far, the Gazan Health Ministry said on Friday, including 583 children and 351 women.”

    Stunning State Department Memo Warns Diplomats: No Gaza ‘De-Escalation’ Talk

    As Israel escalates its offensive, U.S. diplomats are being discouraged from publicly using three phrases that would urge calm.

    As Israel escalates its attacks on Gaza, the State Department is discouraging diplomats working on Middle East issues from making public statements suggesting the U.S. wants to see less violence, according to internal emails viewed by HuffPost.

    In messages circulated on Friday, State Department staff wrote that high-level officials do not want press materials to include three specific phrases: “de-escalation/ceasefire,” “end to violence/bloodshed” and “restoring calm.”

    The revelation provides a stunning signal about the Biden administration’s reluctance to push for Israeli restraint as the close U.S. partner expands the offensive it launched after Hamas ― which rules Gaza ― attacked Israeli communities on Oct. 7.

    The emails were sent hours after Israel told more than 1.1 million residents of northern Gaza that they should leave their homes and shelters ahead of an expected ground invasion of the region. On Thursday, the United Nations said Israel had given Gazans a 24-hour deadline to move to the south of the strip, adding it would be “impossible for such a movement to take place without devastating humanitarian consequences.”

    Israel’s operation in Gaza has killed nearly 1,800 people so far, the Gazan Health Ministry said on Friday, including 583 children and 351 women.

    • Ed says:

      Biden and the US government want genocide of the people of Gaza and all Palestinians. It is a crime against humanity. A war crime.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Oh well… ain’t nothin compared to what they did in EYE-rack killing 500,000 kids… or how about them fake WMD and the mass murder that followed that

        War Crimes are Us

      • JesseJames says:

        The hypocrisy is stunning. The US and NATO quickly label anyone they don’t like as terrorists, but they willingly go in and bomb Libya, destroying the most prosperous country in Africa, killing 50,000 people, creating a failed state, all on a fake rationale that Gaddafi is evil, but that is not terrorism. Sounds familiar….I think that was the rationale used for Saddam.

        It seems like the “rules of war” quickly get cast aside by both sides. Europe will face more immigrants now. Israel would probably be happy if they reached an international solution to relocate 2M Gaza people elsewhere…most likely Europe.

        This may be the breaking point for Europe’s willingness to accept refugees.

        • Foolish Fitz says:

          “Russia’s attacks against civilian infrastructure, especially electricity are war crimes.

          Cutting of men, women, children of water, electricity and heating with winter coming – these are acts of pure terror.

          And we have to call it as such.”

          Ursula von der Leyen 19th October 2022

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Can you imagine the reaction … if they were to actually tell Americans the truth … i.e. that they are committing these war crimes … to ensure that Americans continue to enjoy the prosperity that they demand … and the only way to achieve this is to war crime some folks… and thieve resources

          How do you reckon that would play if cnnbbc published that?

    • chngtg says:

      “583 children and 351 women.”

      So precise…. are we going for 2 decimal plaCesar?

  39. Student says:

    Israel request to millions of Palestinians to leave Gaza in 24 hours, including wounded and ill people in hospitals, is like if Russia had said to Ukranians: ‘get out of Ukraine, we have to enter’…

  40. While events in the last few months will probably keep humanity from reaching the space and Type I Civ, existing tech is enough to keep humanity under a permanent bondage.

    No freedom to do anything, surveillance everywhere and solar-powered drones watching everyone’s moves for a very long time is the future.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      And India will put a man on the moon … don’t forget that… then Somalia

      • MikeJones says:

        And your invited too Eddie…Free Ride..
        NASA astronaut walks on the ‘moon’ to get ready for Artemis landings (photos)
        By Elizabeth Howell published 3 days ago
        Jessica Meir exchanged fistbumps with a partner on a moon-like surface recently.
        Eerie new pictures make it look like astronauts are back on the moon already.

        NASA astronaut Jessica Meir shared spacesuit training photos of herself and another person in footage released on X (formerly known as Twitter). The landscape surrounding them looks like the moon, but it is in fact a rock yard at NASA’s Johnson Space Center (JSC) in Houston with lamps and black walls to simulate the harsh lunar surface conditions.

        In one photo, Meir — an International Space Station veteran — exchanges fistbumps with her partner (not identified) on the surface of a simulated lunar landscape. They are wearing spacesuits that are not completely sealed, but which are mockups to get used to the weight and feel of the bulky outfits.

        • Lastcall says:

          You can’t get used to the weight of the suits on Earth cos weightless on da moon baby!

          Sheee-esh, get a new scriptwriter or 3.

    • drb753 says:

      Tragically, existing tech does not work if someone pulls the plug. Log generators!

  41. Mirror on the wall says:

    Alexander gives his latest overview of the events unfolding in and about Palestine.

    > Israel Calls 1 Million Leave Gaza; Putin BRICS Peace Plan; UK; Ukr Out of Shells, Avdeyevka Cauldron

    • houtskool says:

      Great channel. There’s only one tit left though. So, sucking three tits becomes a challenge don’t you think?

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        I have no idea what tits you are talking about but I may be willing to give three a go (what happened to the fourth?)

        The more the better?

        • Zemi says:

          “(what happened to the fourth?)”

          What makes me think our Lucy would prefer the fifth limb? 😉

      • Very Far Frank says:

        What does this comment even mean?

        • My thought also.

        • houtskool says:

          Ok. Fair enough. There’s not enough to go around. Not enough room for debtors nor savors, catholics nor muslims, posters nor writers. As mentioned in this blog for years. Alexander still lives in a three tits world. There’s not enough to go around. Whining about northern Gaza and disturbing pictures of children is like sucking a tit that simply isn’t there.

          • Tim Groves says:

            Your original comment came through loud and clear to me.

            I remember Christopher Hitchens writing in crude, rude and most unflattering terms about about Mother Teresa: “During the heroic period of the S&L bonanza, M.T. nursed at the ample tit of Charles Keating, of Lincoln Savings and Loan of California…”

            You do occasionally see three tits in a row, even in today’s world.


  42. houtskool says:

    Gail was, until now, 100% correct on stuff that would occur in de-growth. Earthquakes, wars, floodings, pancakes. You name it. The earthquakes weren’t planned, the pancakes were. The wars were planned too, because, besides this blog, there are more people in the know. How many on the altar, when, where, and how. From stock to flow. The beautiful sound of reality, which you cannot hear. Whispering leaves in numbers so large, unable to grasp. Like stars on a windshield, made only to protect against flies. A beautiful reality that animals call ‘the flow’. Soon we will enjoy this reality, and for many already, today.

  43. I AM THE MOB says:

    A third of nurses report witnessing patients die due to staff shortages, new global survey finds

    A third of frontline nurses have had patients die in their care due to staff shortages, a new global survey has found, revealing the extent to which healthcare systems are struggling across the world.

    More than half of the survey respondents said they regularly think about quitting and have raised concerns about the state of their countries’ health systems.

    • Fast Eddy says:


      And even more Delightful given most of the folks entering the hospitals are vaxxed to the hilt… and then there is this thing where they won’t allowed Unvaxxed nurses and docs to return to work — not sure why but hey that’s ok — cuz it means less staff to treat the MOREONS …

      So the MOREONS suffer and die…

      This is the preferred outcome… More Boosters .. come on MOREONS come get it!

  44. hkeithhenson says:

    If you want to know what the MSM is saying

    • D. Stevens says:

      That’s why I always get a two doses. Two masks offer more protection then surely two boosters would also offer more protection? It’s just good sense to double up.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        And a flu shot … get all the shot that are offered (says keith) never ask questions … just take the f789ing shots will ya!

        Stay Safe. Be Effective.

        Get maimed hahaha

    • In other words, don’t expect very much of the new vaccine. If you are high risk of dying of almost anything, the vaccine might briefly reduce your risk of coming down with a bad case of covid a little, for a short time.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        The thing is … the only people who come down with a bad case of covid — are the vaxxed … cuz their immune systems are f789ed… (VAIDS)…

        So yeah… why not just keep shooting this garbage into your bodies … take a shot every week if it makes ya’ll feel more safe

        You got nothing to lose at this point (cept maybe a heart attack or stroke)

      • Jan says:

        When you are at high risk of dying of almost everything a vaccination of whatever kind should not be recommended. If you are not in need of intense medical treatments, it seems best to stay in family care as all kind of pathogens are lower in a well led private household than in a facility. Kids having a running nose seem to protect the elderly, not endanger them, don’t worry about kids.

        Pfizer testified in front of EU parliament that the shots cannot avoid infection and transmission – and were never meant to.

        The protection from severe cases was shown on Pfizer’s first study – if you take a look on the numbers it is not convincing.

        Keep in mind that studies say with a good provision of vitamin D the chance to have a severe cause is close to zero.

        When you are at high risk of dying of almost everything, you will probably die soon. Keep in mind that regular movement, homemade food, using your intelligence and real life social contacts are the best general measures to prolong life.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        I consider all the vaccine related posts as off topic here, but if anyone wants to read what is reported in Science magazine, there is a long article in the current issue.

        Variant-adapted COVID-19 booster vaccines
        In Section Viewpoint: COVID-19
        Current vaccines should be tailored to combat future SARS-CoV-2 variants
        By Florian Krammer1,2,3 and Ali H. Ellebedy4,5

        Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines greatly reduced the burden of the COVID-19 pandemic and saved millions of lives (1). However, waning levels of circulating neutralizing antibodies and the continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern decreased vaccine effectiveness and prompted the need for booster immunizations. Some variants are substantially antigenically distant from the ancestral strain, propelling the development of variant-adapted vaccines. The entanglement of waning immunity and viral variants in terms of immune protection, variant selection in updated vaccines, effectiveness of these vaccines in inducing de novo responses to new variants, and when to change them in the future remain outstanding knowledge gaps.

        The primary series of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines were rolled out at the end of 2020 and beginning of 2021. These immunizations elicited high levels of spike-specific antibodies (which recognize the spike protein expressed on the surface of SARS-CoV-2) that dropped considerably (by 10- to 15-fold) over the first few months after vaccination (2). This decline coincided with the emergence and spread of the Delta variant in the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer of 2021. Although the decay of vaccine-induced antibody responses raised some concerns, it can be explained by the dynamics of B cell responses to vaccination: The initial wave of antibodies is produced by short-lived plasmablasts, which are a terminally differentiated subset of responding B cells (3). Antibodies produced by this initial response in the serum of vaccinated individuals have a half-life of weeks; thus, circulating antibody titers decline slowly in the few months after vaccination. However, serum spike antibody levels started to plateau 6 to 9 months after vaccination (2), indicating the induction of long-lived bone marrow plasma cells. This subset can potentially persist for the lifetime of the host. Neutralizing serum antibody titers are a strong correlate of protection from symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (4). Waning neutralizing antibody levels result in a higher probability of breakthrough infections, especially with new variants. When booster doses were rolled out, serum antibody levels increased again, and longer-term antibody titers plateaued at a higher baseline compared to preboosting levels. Therefore, the third vaccine dose may be important for long-term protection and could be considered part of the primary vaccination regimen in, for example, children.

        Several more pages of detail. I read it and it is consistent with what I know about the subject from decades of reading about biology. Toward the end it goes into the flu vaccines as well.

        Excellent article. If you are up to reading such material and can’t get access, ask and I can send you the whole thing.

        • I think the big issue is that the antibodies don’t really prevent disease. Instead, they are similar to the type of protection a person gets from allergy shots. A person tends to avoid getting the allergic reaction he/she would normally get, and this is what permits better outcomes. But this does not stop the virus from circulating and mutating. It allows people who are really carrying the virus to think that they are well and infect others. Ultimately, it is worse for keeping the virus circulating.

          • hkeithhenson says:

            “prevent disease”

            The original hope was that the vaccine would stop the disease like measles. Didn’t work out that way for reasons discussed in the Science articel, but the vaccine did reduce the severity of an infection.

            As for the rest of your comments, without knowing of study, I suspect that infections do not circulate as well in a vaccinated population as they do in an unvaccinated population. But it is complicated by a lot of people having the virus and carrying a lot of antibodies from a natural infection. Between vaccinations and infections, the US population is relatively resistant, probably upwards of 90% have some resistance.

            We do know that the older versions were driven out of existence because after people caught the new (and more infectious) versions, they older versions could not propagate in a population that had had largely been filled up by antibodies to the newer kinds.

            The question of vaccines making propagation worse or better is something that surely could be measured. For example, the kids at USC are all vaccinated. They have recently been reporting single digit new cases. The problem would be finding a control group.

            It’s a good question.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              “I consider all the vaccine related posts as off topic here, but…”

              here’s an idea for you:

              you live in a “don’t ask don’t tell” bubble.

              if you have a circle of 200 or so family/friends/colleagues and are not aware of anyone saying they had an adverse reaction to a jab, then surely it’s because none of them want to even hint at being “anti-vax”, so the ones with adverse reactions are in the “don’t tell” crowd.

              and all of you would be in the “don’t ask” crowd for the same reason that “asking” might make everyone question if you are a closet “anti-vaxxer”.

              so that would mean that the injured ones are like lyingliars who think it’s best to just be quiet.

              now, YOU could ask, but I bet you won’t.

              since if none say they have been injured, then that’s my point, isn’t it?

              and if some say they were injured, then that’s also my point, isn’t it?

              so, while I have no way of insisting that you ask, you COULD ask.

              but you won’t, I bet.

              just keep living in the don’t ask don’t tell bubble.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “because none of them want to even hint at being “anti-vax””

              Could be. I am not aware of any adverse reactions to the vaccine among the people I know. I know about a number of people who got very sick from the virus and one friend died.

              Given long Covid, I would not be that surprised if there is some vaccine injury. It is not large enough to show up in the US death rate though.

              But vaccines do not seem to be closely related to energy problems such as the supply of diesel.

              Global warming is related to fossil fuels so that’s on topic.

              Incidentally the Washington Post mentioned that the exceptionally hot summer could be due to the Hunga volcanic eruption injecting an incredible amount of water into the stratosphere. Water is a better greenhouse gas than CO2. Volcano eruptions usually cause cooling, but this one seems to be an exception.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              did my post hit close to home?

        • sorry keith

          conspiratosis is incurable

  45. MikeJones says:

    Walgreens executives are going back to the office, where the pressure is on to cut costs and improve profitability.

    The company’s stock (WBA) is up around 2.5% after it reported a narrower quarterly loss. Here are the key points from the company’s earnings call:

    BACK TO THE OFFICE: Company leadership was told to return to the office this month, and other employees will return in November. “We’re convinced that our ability to act quickly, deliver priority projects and respond to business demands will be improved by being together,” said Interim Chief Executive Ginger Graham Thursday on a conference call with analysts.

    STORE CLOSURES: Walgreens aims to save $1 billion over its next fiscal year by reducing all non-essential spend, including by closing unprofitable stores and altering store hours to reflect local trends.

    CLINIC CLOSURES: The company will close 60 healthcare clinics in unprofitable markets, saying its healthcare business has grown rapidly but costs haven’t been managed efficiently.

    PRICIER DRUGS: Price increases for brand-name drugs helped drive a 9.2% jump in fiscal fourth-quarter U.S. pharmacy sales, despite only a 0.9% increase in prescriptions.

    THEFT: An increase in petty theft weighed on retail store gross profit margins.

    SALES: Total retail store revenue fell 4.3%, caused by fewer Covid-19 test sales, and a less severe cough, cold and flu season. Broader economic pressures also held down sales, with “summer seasonal weakness as consumers continued to pull back on discretionary spending,” said Manmohan Mahajan, interim chief financial officer.

    Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc.

    WBA (U.S.: Nasdaq)

    Looks like the squeeze play is on ..tuff retail environment..just like the 1970s all over again …In my youth was a Manager for such a store…lot of hard work 💪 and I was lucky to have a good crew…

    • “Narrower quarterly loss” still doesn’t sound very good.

      The price increases on pharmaceutical drugs must have been amazingly high to drive a 9.2% increase in pharmacy sales, despite only a 0.9% increase in prescriptions.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      PRICIER DRUGS: Price increases for brand-name drugs helped drive a 9.2% jump in fiscal fourth-quarter U.S. pharmacy sales, despite only a 0.9% increase in prescriptions.

      I love out of control inflation — it smells of collapse ahead

  46. Student says:

    (Middle East Eye)

    Since these images do not appear here, please find herewith the so-called Israeli ‘settlers’ illegally seizing Palestinian land and shooting to Palestinian civilians with war rifles.
    Video within the article.
    They do this regularly, the news are reported in Israeli newspapers.
    Technical question: why they are not called terrorists ?

    • The stories don’t make the people of Israel sound like very nice people, shooting people as they come out of religious services.

      • Ed says:

        As the conservative Jews in Brooklyn say it is man’s Israel not G-d’s Israel. They side with the Palestinians not barbarism of humans.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Never once have a seen a clip like this during the nearly 2 yrs of fake war in Ukey

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I know someone who worked for the UN and was stationed in Israel – his role was to try to mediate during violent situations…

        He told me that many times he’d try to stop the Israeli soldiers from shooting kids for no reason — just for the fun of it… they laughed at him when he tried to stop them.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        I have a model of war as it came about in the stone age.

        The war between Hamas an Israel is closer to the stone age origin than the Russian/Ukraine war. There were no national leaders in the stone age such as Hitler and Putin who could send large armies to war.

        War in the stone age was kicked off by widespread perception of a resource crisis. usually weather and a prelude to starvation. This worked the tribe members up (through the spread of xenophobic memes) into the warriors going off to kill neighbors.

        Between population growth and limited area, there is reason for the Gaza population to be resource stressed and for memes to kill the Israels to propagate widely. In stone age times, such wars solved the resource and population problems. Humans are top predators and the only way top predators numbers are limited is by them killing each other

        What kind of surprised me what that the Hamas head guy is reported to be rich with an estate in Qatar. It does not seem in his personal interest to kick off this fight, but then humans seem to be selected against being rational in situations leading up to war (Putin being an example).

        I expect this to play out with the Israel army going into Gaza and doing their best to kill the fighters and as much of the Hamas leadership as they can. The rest of the population will suffer.

        In times not that long ago in the past, the winners would kill all the adults of the losers and their male children and make extra wives of the losers’ young women. The most graphic description of this practice I know about is in Numbers in the Bible.

        Book of Numbers, from The holy Bible, King James version Chapter 31

        7: They warred against Mid’ian, as the LORD commanded Moses, and slew every male.

        8: They slew the kings of Mid’ian with the rest of their slain, Evi, Rekem, Zur,Hur, and Reba, the five kings of Mid’ian; and they also slew Balaam theson of Be’or with the sword.

        9: And the people of Israel took captive the women of Mid’ian and their little ones; and they took as booty all their cattle, their flocks, and all their goods.

        All their cities in the places where they dwelt, and all their encampments,they burned with fire,

        and took all the spoil and all the booty, both of man and of beast
        Then they brought the captives and the booty and the spoil to Moses, and to Elea’zar the priest, and to the congregation of the people of Israel, at the camp on the plains of Moab by the Jordan at Jericho.
        Moses, and Elea’zar the priest, and all the leaders of the congregation,went forth to meet them outside the camp.
        And Moses was angry with the officers of the army, the commanders of thousands and the commanders of hundreds, who had come from service in the war.
        Moses said to them, “Have you let all the women live?”
        Behold, these caused the people of Israel, by the counsel of Balaam, to act treacherously against the LORD in the matter of Pe’or, and so the plague came among the congregation of the LORD.
        Now therefore, kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known man by lying with him.
        But all the young girls who have not known man by lying with him, keep alive for yourselves.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      It’s quite entertaining though … I must admit

      Humans wasting humans … is to die for

  47. raviuppal4 says:

    ” Israel calling up conscripts? This could get real interesting when you consider that Israel is quite possibly the country with the widest uptake of the jab. All those side effects especially with the heart might be an issue struggling through the rubble that was once the Gaza. Maybe that’s some of the holdup, not enough conscripts passing the medical?
    Lets watch the soldiers. I don’t expect any official recognition of this but some signals might show up soon. Think about all the not mandatory shots the wests soldiers have had to take just to keep the paycheques coming. …..and all hell shall reign down from on high. ”
    Copy/paste from TAE .

    • Israel has an awfully lot of soldiers, already. There is a mandatory service requirement for young people. Stories talk about calling up 300,000 reservists.

      • Student says:

        Gail, they have soldiers also coming from other nations.
        For instance, only from Italy over 1.000 soldiers will arrive there.
        They are people with double Passport, Italian – Israeli.
        It is full of these cases in other Countries.

        • Thanks! I know that even in non-war time, Israel attracts volunteers from elsewhere.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The JOOOS are very good at garnering sympathy … they just state that the hamas killed folks at a rave then chopped babies heads off…

            And the volunteers queue up to annihilate the Gazas… and the Gazas would happily do the same to the JOOOS if given the chance

            This is one of the main reasons I will enjoy the Great Extinction.. humans are a sick twisted species that must be exterminated from this planet …

            + we are stooopid — we eat oil DUH

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Most humans are MOREONS … most Gazas are MOREONS.. the only good MOREON is a dead MOREON…

        This is an opportunity to shoot MOREONS without being put in a gulag…

        How does one join up?

    • drb753 says:

      Maybe you read too much Fast Eddy. 1%? Maybe. But it is clear that 1% will die regardless, and probably more. I played soccer with a bunch of over-60, triple jabbed a month ago (in Italy). We played an hour at a pretty good clip and no one was keeling over or even looking bad.

      • Student says:

        Yes, it is true drb753.
        The ones who had heart issues are already dead.
        Or at home, without playing.
        The count on relatives and friends that I have is very big in my surrounding.
        The ones who are alive had probably minor adverse events or none, luckily.
        My father is abundantly over 60, he would have played with you, with more than 4 tenths less on the left eye (after Covid jab), but sill playing.
        His brother could have not played with you.

        • drb753 says:

          I agree with you. It is clear from Euro data that excess mortality started ramping up with the first vaxx, then got progressively worse with the 2nd and third. But in the end we are only talking 6% excess mortality, and those who had to die have died. Virtually no Israeli soldier will die of the vaxx in this war. Palestinians will have to do it the usual way.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The intent is not to maim and kill .. it is to damage immune systems


            Cuz they want to make big $$$ (sarc)

            • drb753 says:

              The immune system, with some help, regenerates anew in less than a month. In 6 months it is completely new. If you fast, it is 50% new in 3 days. The jab works only for those whose diet or other environmental causes prevent a normal updating. There is hope for those who were forced, to keep their job.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Hmmm how would the immune system undo this? Detail are the devil… oh yes… in Clown World you just say abracadabra and it’s like magic!

              And I am going to show to you why the makers of the Pfizer and Moderna “mRNA vaccine” must be really, really, stupid if Hanlon’s Razor applies. It’s because in this one product there are at least 5 ways in which the product design and manufacture ended up with mechanisms that increase the risk of DNA going into the nucleus of your cells, thus modifying your genome.

              In other words, if they wanted to skin this particular cat, they managed to find 5 separate ways to do it and throw them into the same product.

              In other words, those Lipid Nanoparticles are designed to get DNA into the nucleus of cells, and do that job with both DNA and RNA better than a commercially available transfection product.

              When I say that the LNP (which are cationic) are intended to deliver DNA into the nucleus this is not some random claim. It’s well known. Here from 2017:

              “It has been reported that DNAs delivered by Lipofectamine® 2000 reach the nucleus with a high frequency only after 4 h incubation”


              Gene modification … sounds kinda permanent … at least to me… Not sure how fasting would reverse this…

              Do you think if someone who had a genetic defect… like norm and keith – who are unable to perceive reality — could solve the problem by fasting?

              But then hey if I was injected with Rat Juice and I read this I’d also shudder in horror realizing I’d F789ED myself….

              And I’d make stuff up too… to make myself feel better… to drown out the eternal tick tock that is playing like a song I can’t get out of my head.

          • Student says:

            That for sure

          • chngtg says:

            I find it fascinating that people still say “data from xxx shows”. How would you know the data is accurate? If you were to say “it should be, why they want to lie”, then you are no better tamhan those who bekieve in CNNBBC

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Particularly when cnnbbc say the data shows there are no vax injuries but plenty of long covid…

              So how does it work — some of it you can trust some not? How does one know which data sets to trust?

              Assume it’s all a lie

    • Student says:

      Ravi, I followed this issue carefully from Israeli newspapers.
      I have 2 points:

      1) If it is true what they say on their newspapers, considering rate of vaccination, Israeli one is actually lower than many European Countries.
      They said 73% (if true).
      Just as comparison, for Italy is 96%.
      I remember also that during pandemics, an Israeli commander said that in order to stop Covid emergency a good move would be stopping making tests…… (!!!)
      So, my guess is that they didn’t vaccinate so much inside Israeli Army, because they understood the trick.
      They get infected, cured and stop.
      One thing is what they say on newspaper and another one could be what they have done, expecially with soldiers, so vital for them, considering what their commander said…

      (Israel Today)
      “Too Many COVID Infections? Stop Getting Tested, Suggests IDF Commander
      “The eradication of the disease will be carried out by eradication of tests, that is, not to send people for testing”

      (Italy vaccination)

      2) my second consideration is that, as far as I’ve understood reading their newspapers, many people had 2 jabs, but then a lower number had boosters and other doses.
      While, for instance, in Italy, almost all people vaccinated had 3 doses (it was mandatory over 50) and many people had the 4th one.
      Just to keep you update, we are at the 5th one now.
      I think that going on with doses have increased a lot the adverse events results on people.

      • raviuppal4 says:

        Student , you are comparing apples and oranges ( Israel vs Italy ) . Italy is not at war , Israel is . 75% or 95% are vaxxed is immaterial . If 75% of the IDF is vaxxed , what are the odds that they fall over ? Anyway , this is just a copy/paste and not my opinion . However my viewpoint is that since the last about 10-15 years the IDF had become soft , overestimating it’s abilities ( like NATO ) and underestimating the opponents . In the meanwhile the opponent was working on consolidating itself .
        You may have seen this quote before:
        Hard times create strong men.
        Strong men create good times.
        Good times create weak men.
        Weak men create hard times.

        • Student says:

          My points were that, in my opinion,

          A) the rate of jabbed among IDF is very low and surely not 75% like the overall nation (rate from what have been claimed, if true).
          Also because it was not mandatory like in US for army.
          They were smarter on this aspect.

          B) The second point is that, in my view, the soldiers who have been jabbed, have been, yes, but with maximum 2 doses, while in western countries we enjoyed to push with boosters like crazy.

          The above is a mix of facts and my opinion of course.
          Without conspiracy underthinking, just plain fact, logic and opinion.

  48. MikeJones says:

    Is it possible to have BAU BABY for another decade?
    As big as Saudi Arabia’: the Permian oilman who sold Pioneer to Exxon
    Scott Sheffield built the oil company into the biggest producer in Texas

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    When Scott Sheffield began working for Parker & Parsley as a young petroleum engineer in 1979, he joined a company trying to make a go of a west Texas drilling play once dubbed “the graveyard of the oilman’s hopes”.

    That was not Sheffield’s fate. This week he flipped the company, which later became Pioneer Natural Resources, to ExxonMobil for nearly $60bn in the US oil industry’s biggest transaction in decades. In the past decade Pioneer helped revive the moribund Permian Basin of Texas into a critical source of global energy supply.

    “We took something people thought was uneconomical and turned it [into] probably the largest oil and gas basin in the world,” Sheffield, 71, told the Financial Times. “When you include all the natural gas and the natural gas liquids with the oil, it’s as big as Saudi Arabia.”

    No one embodies the wild ride the US oil patch has been through in recent decades more than Sheffield, a plain-talking Texan.

    The Exxon deal draws a line under a long career that has spanned huge upheavals in the industry, including two Opec price wars and an unprecedented crash in crude prices to below zero in 2020, as well as the emergence of climate change as a fundamental concern for investors.
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    But he also took advantage of the downturn, snapping up rival Permian producers Parsley Energy and Double Point Energy in 2021 in deals worth a combined $11bn. The acquisitions made the company the biggest producer in the basin and in the state of Texas.

    The acquisition of Parsley Energy led to a large payout for Sheffield’s son Bryan, who founded it in 2008, and caused some controversy. In an interview at the time, the elder Sheffield insisted he and his son had been “completely walled off” from any negotiations.

    Sheffield in April announced his second retirement before his final act. Selling Pioneer to ExxonMobil will earn him $29mn, according to regulatory filings. He will also receive about $150mn in Exxon stock in exchange for his Pioneer shares and join the supermajor’s board as a director.

    The deal came quickly. “The company was not for sale,” said Sheffield. “If you asked me four weeks ago, there was nothing happening. They came with an offer in the last two to three weeks. And we negotiated.”

    As he steps off the stage for the second time, industry observers question whether this really marks the end of Sheffield’s career. After all, the last time he retired, throwing himself into charity work and climbing Kilimanjaro did not dim his attraction to the industry.

    I say YES…stranger things are happening

    • The catch is that natural gas and natural gas liquids aren’t worth much. They don’t directly provide diesel or jet fuel.

      The Fischer-Tropsch process can change one type of hydrocarbon into another, but the process requires a lot of energy and complexity to work.

      • David says:

        Turning natural gas into diesel is particularly silly unless you’re very low on oil and somehow must make diesel (for shipping and HGVs) or kerosene (for planes). You waste a lot of high-quality clean fuel that way.

        Last time I checked, there were up to 15 million compressed natural gas cars around the world, using CNG instead of petrol. They can still be filled up with petrol if you’re driving in an area with no CNG.

        A large scale transfer to CNG could have made sense, given that the ratio of natural gas to oil is increasing and the oil available is becoming lighter. Also CNG exhausts are quite clean, so CNG vehicles could probably be safely used in ‘clean air zones’. But this was pretty obvious in about 2000 or 2005. Still nothing happened.

        • hkeithhenson says:

          “You waste a lot of high-quality clean fuel that way. ”

          Yes, about 25% Plus the plants to do this are expensive, at least $8 a bbl capital charge. It only makes sense if you have a lot of stranded NG and a big market for diesel.

          I am looking into a method that bootstraps coal, steam and renewable power into syngas. If you have a handy gas field, the syngas generation can run while the sun is up and the F/T plant all the time.

          It is sensitive to the cost of the submerged arc syngas generation since that runs only part time. This might be a cost effective way to turn intermittent renewables into diesel fuel, responding to two of Gail’s concerns.

          Or maybe not. The engineering is complicated.

          • All of the supply line need to be working, to make this work. If intermittent renewables are used, they must be kept repaired, as well.

            • hkeithhenson says:

              “kept repaired, as well.”

              Of course. I have not looked into it for a year or two, but when I did, there was a 900 MW PV plant being installed in the Mideast that was selling power for 1.35 cents per kWh. A 900 MW source would chew up coal at 300 tons per hour, average production of around 100 t/hr.

              Siting is tricky, ideally you would have coal, and an empty gas field nearby.

              Of course all this is subject to being completely overrun by new technology.

      • raviuppal4 says:

        Calling the BS on BOE by the oil industry .
        10/12/2023 at 3:02 am
        Your conversion number of barrels to ton are wrong, by quite a bit. The generally accepted conversion- Platts- is 7.3 barrels per tonne. Crude densities vary according to the composition and maturation of the source rock. Another confusing metric is BOE ( barrel of oil equivalent) which is generally accepted as 6MMBTU.

        Actual global crude & condensate consumption is a little of 85 million b/d which is about 11.6 million tonnes. Still a lot of oil of which the US alone consumes about 1/6 of the total.

        Conversion for NGL’s and products in barrel/mt
        ethane 17.66
        propane 12.4
        isobutane 11.1
        n-butane 10.78
        natural gasoline 9.45
        naphtha 9
        finished gasoline 8.45
        jet-kerosine 7.86
        diesel 7.46

        Thus the use of boe in oil reserve estimates can be a very misledaing metric.

    • ivanislav says:

      >> Is it possible to have BAU BABY for another decade?

      I’m leaning towards yes from an oil standpoint. If things get derailed in the US, it will be financial or geopolitical in nature. Of course, if these events cause enough chaos, it could disrupt shale drilling and then we are in a world of hurt in relatively short order.

      My guesses:
      0-10 years, gradually increasing pressure and volatility in oil markets
      10-15 years, serious instability, periphery getting squeezed out
      15+ who knows, the cookie could crumble so many ways

      • raviuppal4 says:

        Ivan , my scenario . As geopolitical tensions rise , in 2024 the USG reinstates the ban on export of crude oil . Understand that the export of crude oil was prohibited till 2015 , so reinstating it and having TRCC monitor the production of shale is easy . TRCC already has experience on this . This ban will remove 4 mbpd from the EXPORTABLE oil market which is about 30 mbpd (C+C) . So who will fill this gap ( 15% of EXPORTABLE oil) . Answer ? No one , there is no spare capacity . Result — all OPEC + goes in for what I call ‘” resource nationalism ” curtailing their exports ( so as to have a long tail since all are past peak) and at the same time the oil importers will ramp up their purchase for ” oil security ” . The world will be caught between a rock and a hard place . It is going to take a miracle to get over 2025 . Hope and pray I am wrong in my assesment .

        • ivanislav says:

          You are talking about geopolitical issues, my statement was with regards to depletion. I believe there is enough oil in the ground for my scenario, but potential production can get derailed or prevented in many ways.

      • drb753 says:

        Why should the periphery get squeezed out in 10 or 15 years? The diesel exports are dropping fast right now. But I do agree that the core will last 10 to 15 years, or more. After the tar sands there will be venezuela after all.

        • raviuppal4 says:

          drb753 , it is not the reserves that matter , it is the flow rate . It is not the size of the tank but size of the tap that matters . Example : You have $ 100000 in your bank account but if the ATM will give you a maximum of say $ 1000 only per day then you are in a pickle . As to core vs periphery arguement , understand that the core is the ” core ” because it has the ability to suck the resources from the periphery . If the periphery dies then the core will die also, just a little wee bit later .

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The Voice of Reason.

          • drb753 says:

            I do not get this comment at all. Of course diesel exports are dropping fast for a reason, which is declining flow rate of oil. I do not see how a limited flow rate can prevent the periphery from dropping out in more than 10 years. The core right now is almost energy sufficient.

        • ivanislav says:

          I was talking about what is possible in terms of reserves (he asked “is it possible?”), not how geopolitics could make life harder sooner or result in a squeeze now.

          Falling diesel exports is mostly (but not entirely) geopolitical right now, in my view. Russian leadership and oligarchs would love to keep strip-mining the country and exporting cheap resources, but they’re only playing hardball (limiting diesel exports) because of current tensions. The drop in Saudi production can be offset by Venezuela and Iran.

          • drb753 says:

            I think it is geological. You just have less and less heavy oil.

            • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

              probably in the long run.

              but in the short run, geopolitics could work to aid VZ to greatly increase Orinoco heavy oil production.

      • chngtg says:

        Linear thinking and extrapolation is great until it isn’t

      • moss says:

        not to mention discontinuities and singularities

        no one know the future

Comments are closed.