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It will be an interesting year.
We know that the age of peak performance for humans varies, depending upon the activity. Peak performance for an athlete tends to come between ages 20 and 30, while peak performance for a person writing academic papers seems to come between ages 40 and 50 years. By the time people are 80 years old, they have a strong suspicion that health and other aspects of performance will deteriorate in the next 20 years.
Economies, in physics terms, are similar to human beings. Both are dissipative structures. They require energy of the appropriate kinds to keep their systems growing and operating normally. For humans, the main source of this energy is food. For an economy, it is a mixture of energy that the economy is specifically adapted to. Today’s economy requires a certain mixture of energy directly from the sun, plus energy from fossil fuels, burned biomass, and nuclear energy. Electricity is a carrier of energy from different sources. It needs to be available at the right time of day and the right time of year to allow today’s economy to continue.
Most people don’t realize that economies grow and eventually collapse. For example, we know that the Roman Empire started its growth in 625 BCE and reached its peak extent in 211 CE. It declined somewhat between 211 CE and 456 CE, when it finally collapsed after several invasions. The growth and collapse of economies is very much expected because of their nature as dissipative structures.
In 2024, the world economy is acting more and more like an 80-year-old man than like a young vigorous economy. Perhaps the economy can continue for quite a few more years, but it increasingly looks like it is in danger of falling apart, or of succumbing as a result of what might be regarded as minor problems.
Trying to predict precisely what will happen in the year 2024 is difficult, but in this post, I will examine some of the things that are going wrong in this increasingly creaky old economy.
[1] Too many parts of the world economy are changing from growth to shrinkage.
The blue circles can illustrate many different things:
- The total goods and services produced by the economy;
- The quantity of energy required to produce the total goods and service produced by the economy;
- The total population that is supported by these goods and services (which will generally be rising or falling, too);
- Goods and services per person (which tend to rise during periods of growth and fall in a shrinking economy);
- And, strangely enough, the ability of the economy to maintain complexity. Without enough energy, structures such as governments tend to fail.
As the economy moves away from growth, toward shrinkage, major changes can be expected.
[2] In a growing economy, repaying debt with interest is very easy. In a shrinking economy, repaying debt with interest becomes close to impossible.
If an economy is growing, there will likely be an increasing number of jobs available over time, and they will pay relatively more. If a person loses his/her job, it is not very difficult to get a position that will pay as much or more. Paying back a loan on a house or an automobile tends to be easy.
A corresponding situation occurs for businesses. If the business can count on an increasing number of customers, overhead becomes easier and easier to cover with a growing consumer base.
The reverse is obviously true in a shrinking economy. Jobs may be available if a person loses his/her current job, but the jobs don’t pay very well. Businesses may face periods with suddenly lower demand, as in 2020. There is a sudden need to reduce overhead, such as payments for office space, if the space is no longer being utilized by employees.
Clearly, if interest rates rise, it becomes increasingly difficult for borrowers of all kinds to repay debt with interest. Raising interest rates is thus a way to intentionally slow the economy. If the economy is growing too quickly (like a 20-year-old sprinter), then such a change makes sense. But if the economy is behaving like an 80-year-old, hobbling along on a walking stick, it becomes likely the economy will figuratively fall and become severely injured. This is the danger of raising interest rates when the world economy is having difficulty growing at an adequate rate.
[3] The physics of the system dictates that as the system shifts in the direction of shrinkage, the wealth of the system is increasingly distributed toward the rich and very powerful, and away from those of modest means.
Physicist Francois Roddier writes about this issue in his book, The Thermodynamics of Evolution. He likens energy (and the goods and services produced using this energy) as being like energy applied to water. When energy levels are low, the less wealthy members of the economy tend to be squeezed out, just as (low energy) frozen water turns to ice. The reduced amount of energy available (and goods and services produced using this energy) increasingly bubbles up to the small number of economic participants at the top of the economic hierarchy. This issue tends to make the already rich even richer.
In some sense, the self-organizing economy seems to preserve as much of the economy as it can, when energy supplies are inadequate. The wealthy seem to be important for keeping the whole system operating, so the physics tends to favor them.
Inflation, in general, is a problem, especially for people with limited income. Higher interest rates also take a big “bite” out of spendable income. This problem is greatest for low income people. The benefit of higher interest rates, and of capital gains, tends to go to high income people.
High food prices especially affect the poor because, even in good times, food tends to be a high share of their income. For example, in a poor country, if food costs amount to 50% of a person’s income when food prices are moderate, a 20% increase in food prices will lead to food prices costing 60% of income. Such a situation quickly becomes intolerable because there is not enough income left for other essential goods.
The figure above shows that between 1990 and 2022, the share of total wealth held by the top 1% of US citizens rose from 23% to 32%. This means that other citizens were increasingly squeezed out of the benefits of the growing economy.
[4] With their newfound power (arising from the growing concentration of wealth), the wealthy are tempted to exert increasing control over the economic system.
The fact that the world economy was likely to reach annual limits of fossil fuel extraction about now has been known for a very long time. I have referred to a 1957 speech by US Navy Admiral Hyman Rickover pointing out this bottleneck many times. Wealthy individuals have known about this bottleneck for a very long time. They have been asking themselves, “How can we increasingly benefit from this change?”
Clearly, reducing the population growth rate has been one of the goals of some of these wealthy individuals. With fewer people to share the resources available, everyone will benefit.
But the wealthy can also see that hiding the energy bottleneck would be of huge benefit in keeping the current system operating as usual. These individuals, through the World Economic Forum and other organizations, have pushed for zero global warming emissions. They have tried to reframe the problem of inadequate inexpensive-to-produce fossil fuels as a problem of too large a quantity of fossil fuels for the system to handle. In their view, we can decide to transition away from fossil fuels without significantly adverse impacts.
By hiding the energy bottleneck, companies selling vehicles can claim they will be useful for many years. Educational systems can claim that we are well on our way to finding substitutes for fossil fuels, and that there will be good jobs available in the new systems. With the bottleneck problem hidden, politicians do not have to present citizens with a very concerning and intractable issue. Since a happily-ever-after narrative is desired by all, it is easy for the wealthy (and politicians who want to be reelected) to influence the major news outlets to present only this view to readers.
[5] Major cracks in the economy are likely to start showing soon. The energy bottleneck is already pulling the economy down, even if major news media are reluctant to discuss the problem.
The problem displays itself in several different ways:
(a) The economy has moved toward two widely differing views regarding today’s energy situation.
The narrative presented in the press is that we have an excessive amount of fossil fuels. In this view, any shortage of fossil fuels (or any other resource) would be quickly accompanied by rising prices. These rising prices would allow an increasing quantity of these materials to be extracted, quickly solving the problem. But the real story, for anyone who examines the details, is quite different. Affordability becomes very important, holding prices down. History shows that nearly every civilization has collapsed. Populations tend to grow but the resources supporting the economies don’t grow quickly enough. Rising prices don’t fix the problem!
People who work with fossil fuels know how essential they are for our current civilization. The story about intermittent wind and solar substituting for fossil fuels sounds very far-fetched if a person thinks about the need for heat in the winter and the difficulties associated with long-term storage of electricity. The two widely differing narratives surrounding our energy future sound like they could have come from the dystopian novel Nineteen Eighty-Four by George Orwell.
(b) Repaying debt with interest gets to be an increasing problem.
Strange as it may seem, added debt can temporarily act as a placeholder for additional energy. Debt is a promise for goods and services that will be made with future energy. This placeholder can allow capital goods, such as factories, to be made which allow more goods and services to be made in the future. This placeholder can also be used as the basis for money to pay workers, so that they can afford to purchase more goods.
At some point, the debt becomes too much for the system to sustain. We are seeing some of this in China, where there have been debt defaults in the real estate market. In the US, the commercial real estate market is experiencing high vacancy rates. There is increasing concern that, in many places, commercial real estate can only be sold at a huge loss. In this situation, the holders of debt are likely to sustain massive losses.
(c) Political parties start differing widely on whether to increase government debt.
The more conservative parties do not want to keep adding more debt, but the more liberal parties insist that there is no other way out: If there isn’t enough energy of the right kind, the added debt can perhaps be used to fund projects in the renewable energy sector that will create the illusion of progress toward an adequate supply of energy of the right kind at the right price. The added debt can also be used to continue the many social programs promised to citizens and to provide support for activities such as the war in Ukraine.
So far, adding debt has worked for the US because the US dollar is the world’s reserve currency and because the US has tended to keep its target interest rates high, encouraging other countries to invest in US securities. If other countries try to add substantially more debt, their currencies will tend to fall, leading to inflation.
The US may soon also run into an inflation problem because of added debt. This happens because it is possible to “print money,” but it is not possible to print goods and services made with inexpensive energy products. For example, the temptation is to bail out failing banks and pension plans with added debt. To the extent that this debt gets back into the money supply, but there aren’t added goods to match, the result is likely to be inflation in the prices of the goods and services that are available.
(d) Broken supply lines are another sign of an economy reaching limits.
When there aren’t quite enough goods and services to go around, some would-be buyers of goods have to be left out.
In the last three years, all of us have experienced at least some problems with empty shelves in stores and the unavailability of needed parts for repairs. Many kinds of drugs are in short supply around the world. Heavy industry has been encountering problems, as well. In 2022, Upstream Online wrote, “Drill pipe shortages causing headaches for US producers [of oil and natural gas].”
If we are reaching the limit of inexpensive fossil fuel available for extraction, an increasing number of these problems can be expected. These supply line problems tend to raise costs in a different way than “regular” inflation. Often, a more expensive product must be substituted, or a higher cost workaround is needed. For example, a person may need to use a rental vehicle while his current vehicle is being repaired because of unavailable replacement parts.
(e) Conflicts arise when there are not enough goods and services to go around.
Part of the conflict comes from wage and wealth disparity. For example, an increasing number of people are finding reasonably-priced housing impossible to find. The combination of high interest rates and high housing prices tends to make home-buying a luxury, available only to the rich. An increasing share of young people are also finding automobiles too expensive to afford. One way “not-enough-goods-and-services-to-go-around” manifests itself is by many people not being able to afford the products in question.
There is often a belief that a more equitable distribution of income would solve the problem. But, if the economy cannot build more cars or homes because of energy shortages, this doesn’t fix the problem. Providing more money to the poor would instead cause inflation in the price of the goods that are available.
Another way this conflict manifests itself is in conflicts among countries. Countries selling fossil fuels, such as Russia, would like higher fossil fuel prices, so that the standards of living of their own people can be higher. However, if fossil-fuel-importing countries, such as those in Europe, are forced to pay higher prices for the fossil fuel they use, it becomes difficult for companies in these countries to manufacture goods profitably. Also, the higher fossil fuel prices make the cost of growing food higher. Customers often cannot afford higher food prices.
In the case of the fight between Israel and Gaza, at least part of the conflict relates to the natural gas field that Israel is developing, but which arguably belongs to Gaza. If Israel can develop this resource, it may be able to keep its own economy expanding for a while longer. The people of Gaza will remain very poor.
(f) Manufacturing around the world seems to be reducing in quantity. It definitely is not rising to keep up with population growth.
The big shortfall today is in goods, rather than in services. This is what a person would expect if an energy problem is giving rise to the problems we are currently experiencing.
The organization S&P Global Market Intelligence puts out an index called the Purchasing Managers Index, for 15 countries, including a global average. The manufacturing portion of this index is in contraction on a worldwide basis, as of the latest data available. The extent of this manufacturing contraction is especially significant for the US, the European countries included, for Japan, and for Australia. The countries that are not in contraction are India, Russia, and China.
If manufacturing is in contraction, we would expect more broken supply lines in the months and years ahead.
[6] How will all this turn out, in 2024 and long term?
I don’t think we know. Things are likely to get worse economically, but we don’t know how much worse. We know that an elderly person can easily succumb to some illness. In the same way, we know that if the economy has enough weak points, a major collapse might occur, even without a huge decline in energy availability.
At the same time, the economy seems to have a lot of resilience. Leaders of the US, and perhaps of other countries, as well, seem likely to take the route of adding increasing amounts of debt, to bail themselves out of whatever problems arise. If banks get into trouble, some new funding facility will be developed. If Social Security or private pensions need more funding, it will likely be provided by more government debt. This leads me to suspect that in the US, at least, there is likely to be a higher risk of hyperinflation (lots of money but very little to buy) rather than deflation (very little money, but also very little to buy).
The Universe came into being, apparently out of nothing. The Universe has grown and continues to grow. Eric Chaisson, in his 2001 book, Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature, shows that the trend in the Universe has been toward ever greater complexity.
Together, it appears that the Universe, itself, acts like a dissipative structure. Self-organization leads the Universe to grow and become more complex, as long as it has adequate energy. The question becomes, “Where is the expanding energy supply for the Universe as a whole coming from? Can the expanding energy supply continue indefinitely, or until whatever force started it, chooses to stop it?”
It seems to me that there is something from outside pushing the whole Universe along. Economists talk about “an invisible hand.” People from a religious background might say that there is a God who created the Universe, and is continuing to create it every day, through involvement in the things that take place on Earth, including the strange happenings in 2020.
If I am correct that there is an outside force influencing the economy today, perhaps Earth’s problems are temporary. One possibility is that eventually a new type of energy solution will be found. There is also the possibility that, at some point, whatever force started the Universe may cause the operation of the Universe to cease. A replacement (which we can think of as heaven) might be provided instead.
The popular narrative tends to see ourselves as having a great deal of power to manage problems with our current economy, but I don’t think that we have very much power to influence the system we find ourselves embedded in. The economic system behaves on its own, based on market forces, just a child grows up, matures, and eventually dies. The system within which we live is very much guided by what we call self-organization, which is outside our power to control.
Now back to wordpress, so I will continue to beat Gabby, Chucky and the likes again.
The Canadian backwoodsmen who invented the ways to counter the poison gas in Ypres 1915, instead of dying or running away, are no less guilty than the morons I mentioned above.
What difference do they have with the Houthis, who , for the first time in history, successfully denied the Suez Canal to trade? (I think the Israelis occupied part of it for some time but I don’t think shipping stopped ).
Nothing.
The Canadians caused the battles of Verdun and Somme and more destruction. I also documented that the Canadians caused World War 2 by making Britain end the alliance with Japan, when Canada had one single Harbor in Pacific, Vancouver, with a measly 100,000 people, a minor city.
The Canadians acted like the Yemenis today and caused a huge distress against the world!
Canada was kind of treated like an unwanted stepchild of UK and USA, and its attempts to make a mark in the world always caused a huge harm to Civilization.
The truckers who created a shitshow last year are no different than the Canadian backwoodsmen of 1915, who are not heroes but enemies of civilization. Which is why the Elders are doing their best to emasculate Canada, the Yemen of North America.
I got to thinking about the Roman Empire being over-run by what seemed like less civilized groups from the north. Couldn’t things work out that way.
LMAO.
Well if the power goes off that thousands of miles of border ain’t stopping us hordes from coming on down.
Of course most will freeze to death within blocks of their homes……
Seriously though….Canadians by and large are not what they were. The males are castrated essentially and the females are …..what is the current parlance???…….oh yeah,……”cringe”……
At least that means they won’t f up civilization ever again. Dues paid
Those things are hard to understand, Christianity was coming in the mainstream around that time and looking at the Vatican
somewhere things changed.
In the NA continent and Central A for that matter, Christianity sure was hard on the indigenous peoples.
Dennis L.
Know nothing of what you speak, Copilot:
“The Anglo-Japanese Alliance was in operation from 1902 to 19221. The alliance was renewed and expanded in scope twice, in 1905 and 1911, before its demise in 1921 and termination in 19221. The British dominions, including Canada, pressured Britain to end the alliance2. However, it’s important to note that the end of the alliance was influenced by a variety of factors and not solely due to pressure from the dominions12. The changing geopolitical situation, including Japan’s increasing aggression in Asia, also played a significant role12. Therefore, while Canada and other dominions may have influenced the decision, it was ultimately Britain’s decision to end the alliance with Japan2.”
World is a strange place.
Dennis L.
I have done some research on this. Only Canada was vocal about this. Other parts of dominion didn’t want to change.
You live closer to Canada so you might emphathize with them a bit. But if starships don’t bring the stuff you crave, the Canadians have contributed a huge deal about it.
This guy is taking it all quite calmly, actually.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpFXi4OHOAA
A video about EVs. I would simply call it ” Getting there, the new age of EVs”
Pretty funny. He needs russian winter shoes and he will be all set.
This is a 4 minute video called, EV Reality – FREEZE OR DONT GET THERE.
This is not the publicity that EV makers need.
Especially as England is well-known for having very mild winters for the latitude. Most of the USA is colder in January, so is most of Europe especially the eastern half. People in Germany or eastern France may have second thoughts.
I picture… a Green Groopie … hunched over the steering wheel… face turning blue because he cannot turn on the heater… but soldiering on because he believes the he is saving the world … as he searches for the nearest coal-powered charging point.
And I drive by in my 4 ba 4… wave – then flip him the middle finger…
All is well
Winter Woes – Green New Deal Turns Deadly | Armstrong Economics
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/climate/winter-woes-green-new-deal-turns-deadly/
The article features this image, supposedly showing the relative output of the sun relative to peaking of various empires throughout the ages:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Rise-Fall-or-Empires-Climate.jpg
The chart only goes up to the year 2000, with the Internet Age and energy output from the sun relatively high, but not as high as in many past peaks.
The article says a number of interesting things, including this:
It links to a Telegraph opinion article:
https://news.yahoo.com/texas-power-grid-verge-another-153815592.html
“The Texas power grid is on the verge of another fatal collapse. Green energy is absent.”
Depopulation could make over half of US cities ghost towns by 2100
“More than half of the 25,000 US cities could become ghost towns by 2100, a study suggests. Researchers at the University of Chicago made the starling discovery while analyzing population trends, finding that a combination of fewer babies being born and Americans trading expensive cities for more rural towns would lead to significant ‘depopulation’ in more than 12,000 cities by the end of the century.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/galleries/article-12970587/Depopulation-make-half-cities-ghost-towns-2100.html
It will be a lot sooner than that.
Too little, too late.
Around the world, it is likely that there will be a lot of cities depopulating. It takes imported energy from outside the cities for cities to sustain themselves. When such energy dries up, cities start depopulating. Some US West Coast cities already seem to be seeing problems. Also, the cost of living in Hawaii is terribly high, relative to wages. New York City tends to be very expensive for workers, too.
Yes, many videos reporting New York City is unaffordable for the average person..
New Yorker’s Can’t Afford New York…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RpR-2rgcQb4&t=454s&pp=ygUZQ2FudCBhZmZvcmQgbmV3IHlvcmsgY2l0eQ%3D%3D
From the comment
My wife and I calculated how much we had spent on rent in NYC separately in the last decade living there and it was pretty close to a million dollars. And this for shitty 1-2 bedroom places in manhattan with walkups, no amenities and mafia supers and crackheads on the sidewalk. There’s a reason a lot of people (including us) bailed and bought elsewhere when covid hit, the city is an unsustainable dump and only really serves the mega wealthy. The rest, as you said, are cost burdened and simply trapped there.
@dominicperez3777
2 months ago
I’m glad that I live in one of the cheapest neighborhoods in all of NYC, but it still doesn’t change the fact that the cost of living crisis is going to affect all of us living here in the city. There’s a law here in the city called Local Law 97 that if implemented and enforced will increase the cost of living here in the city by replacing all gas appliances and stoves to electric against the residents’ and landlord’s will. Enforcing Local Law 97 will force landowners in the city to comply to “turn green”, but in reality it’s a cash grab from the city. NYC wants to take more money from you than you already pay now. Local Law 97 will affect residents like me who live in co-op apartments just to survive and it will especially affect poor families who live in co-op apartments struggling to meet basic needs. On November 7, two weeks from now, please vote for the people that will be against Local Law 97. Thank you.
at new year, i had lunch with a lovely couple from Washington State– just retired, they sold everything except what they could pack into 2 suitcases and upped and left.
he has an english mother, so was entitled to claim english citizen ship, his wife was doing the same
just couldnt stand it there anymore—and i thought uk was bad enough—
they love it here, and everybody here has taken them in so to speak.
they now dont want to be anywhere else.
An American friend moved here for good in Feb. 2022. She now has to work out a way to become a legal resident (Bill Bryson did it) and not keep going abroad to renew a visa.
taken them in?
Did Super Snatch offer to provide some space Out Back the Dumpster?
i dont think they suffer from your shortcomings eddy
but no doubt you will continue to tell us of your fantasies and obsessions
What a pity your RL doesn’t measure up (lol)
You are missing so much
No other commenter on OFW feels the need to vent their weaknesses and inadequacies in that department
but i suppose being unique in that respect at least does something for your ever fragile ego.
Did you tell them that you urged your grand kids to get shot with Rat Juice cuz you thought it might protect you?
The Zionist Neocons want a nuke war between Europe and Russia.
Iran has hit US forces in Iraq and in Syria.
Russia needs to find a way to hit the ZN in their lairs. Or, the puppet governments in Europe need to be freed.
Do you have details or links on this?
Concerning Iran, they have hit certain targets in Iraq, Syria and last night added Pakistan to the list. They did not hit U.S forces as far as I know(might have hit a consulate), that was Islamic Resistance in Iraq.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/iran-acts-without-restrictions-to-defend-its-people–defense
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/3-us-bases-in-iraq–syria-under-iraqi-resistance-rockets–dr
The U.S has evacuated one of the bases, but are just about to send 1500 home guard to Iraq and Syria illegally (wonder if that’ll happen).
Iraq and Pakistan have condemned and recalled ambassadors, but at the same time Pakistan are holding naval exercises with guess who?
The Iranian missiles travelled up to 1200km(over U.S bases) and were precision strikes, fired from multiple locations, which is a message in itself.
AnsarAllah continue to hit ships(U.S one yesterday) with the expected results
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/insurers-seek-to-exclude-us-uk-ships-from-red-sea-cover
Lobbing the ball straight back by their actions and now the bully has to reply and so escalate, or be shown as weak.
The attacks are happening all over the region and daily.
Fake
Still asleep .
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Occidentals-CEO-Sees-Oil-Supply-Crunch-from-2025.html
Important : The ratio of discovered resources versus demand has dropped in recent decades and is now at around 25%..
The additional oil and gas demand over the coming decade needs new upstream investments to offset the 5-7% annual decline rates.
the ratio is more like 16% new discovery from what i’ve seen
Starship is the only thing which will work, or has a chance of working. Also need space robotics, humans don’t do well in zero gravity and high radiation levels. Humans need spaceship earth, a heck of an engineering project.
First bring what we need from space to earth in manufactured form, then use solar for a hydrogen economy. Batteries to date don’t work.
Don’t nor will I spend time on details, but energy is free in space, dear on earth. Will need much less diesel if gathering metals and manufacturing are done in space.
TINA
Dennis L.
dennis
your comment about stuff your parent g/parents could do made perfect sense
your starship dreams make none
norm!!!
The choice to not vaccinate has consequences. Her mother, 62, who works in a home office, has suffered through three bouts of COVID, caught from group hugs with unvaccinated grandchildren.
Why did grandma catch COVID? She didn’t mask or keep up her boosters. COVID Grandma, a Hinterland Who’s Who subset, is just one of the 73 per cent in the 59-to-69 cohort that skipped the jab. “Isn’t that awful pandemic over? Two shots are enough, right?”
But it’s not just about you. The complete lack of concern for others is repugnant. We don’t just vaccinate for self-protection but to protect the vulnerable. The refusal to vax is selfish. It’s reckless. And it’s burdening our overtaxed health-care system.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-unwelcome-unvaxxed
This was published recently in the Winnipeg Free Press. The theory must be that if this kind of nonsense worked in 2021/2022, perhaps it will work again.
This will resonate with norm … (is keith dead?)
A belligerent branch of my extended family remains unvaccinated. The rationale? The concerned mother of three needs to know: What’s in the vaccines?
The thirty-something urbanite is a rebellious millennial who demands full disclosure. But this isn’t a cereal box on the breakfast table. It’s a vaccine. The ingredients are patented, tested and approved by Health Canada.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-unwelcome-unvaxxed
There can be differences in how problematic the vaccine is for different age groups. The oldest recipients, especially if they were in good health, so far don’t seem to be terribly harmed by it. It is younger people who are facing long-term risks from the vaccines. I think that older commenters can decide for themselves whether or not the risks are worth it for themselves.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F13d28939-3f32-48df-b06e-7f43a7cfe70f_621x778.png
https://youtu.be/7ni8urAkenw
https://youtu.be/kHXJ5O5EDIc
https://youtu.be/su7hgtGwDPM
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/hunger-games-world-bank-and-cargill
These links are all related to the food crisis that already seems to be starting to happen. The first one is the front cover of the Economist (in 2022) talking about an upcoming food crisis. The other links show other aspects of this crisis.
In 2015, the World Bank and Cargill – the largest privately held company in the United States in terms of revenue, distributing a large number of popular food and agricultural commodities – conducted a simulation event that examined what world governments would do if and when food shortages, famine, and supply chain disruptions occurred. https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/hunger-games-world-bank-and-cargill
Planning for Global Holodomor
This is hilarious!!! https://thehighwire.com/ark-videos/the-indoctrinated-brain-with-dr-michael-nehls/
Excellent video.
“this is hilarious” =the spike protein kills our curiosity. The plan.
Like during the era of the medieval energy collapse, we face the atomization of the society and the rise of the hermits.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit
But was he vaxxed and boosted? 🧐
Sven-Goran Eriksson: Terminal cancer leaves former England manager with around a year to live, he reveals
https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/13045911/sven-goran-eriksson-terminal-cancer-leaves-former-england-manager-with-around-a-year-to-live-he-reveals
“The 75-year-old told Swedish radio station P1 he had been given the shock news after fainting on a 5k run, and had previously been in a good state of health. It just came from nothing. And that makes you shocked.”
Lawrence Butts
Writes Lawrence’s Newsletter
21 mins ago
No – he is doing two things here. He is rebutting the pseudo science of the article and he is making further refinements on how he thinks this next variant will override the PNNAbs that are now inhibiting virulence and trans infections. “viral virulence has not grown high enough to trigger a spectacular, virulence-enhancing change that would prevent the attachment of PNNAbs to the S-NTD (N-terminal domain of S protein) on DC-tethered virions” So when this happens “To overcome this hurdle, the virus will likely undergo a spectacular mutational change capable of collectively overriding PNNAb-mediated inhibition of trans infection, possibly in the form of a substantial change in the glycosylation profile of the S protein” If you watch on my post video #3 Dr Rob explains this. So he only saying what needs to happen to make this a killer. This latest variant is vast change from the last set of variants. I can’t speak for him but he would probably say this can happen any time now. The immune pressure is solely focused on this domain.
https://gvdb.substack.com/p/failure-to-study-the-adaptive-immune/comments
Anyone who thinks this will be a nothing burger… that highly deadly viruses die off for want of hosts…
Needs to be reminded of Mareks… another disease that was caused by deploying leaky vaccines
was at a wild party a couple of weeks ago and was hanging out with my provaxxer cousin who is a doctor we were pretty pissed so i thought what an opportunity to talk about his thoughts on the vaxxes in general and how viruses spread he spouted all the conventional thoughts on viruses that according to him are always searching for a good host to live in and immune compromised individuals fall under this category i then said to him that i thought the covid 19 vaccines were responsible for introducing the spike protein into the vaccinated people which would make them worse off and besides this spike protein was new it had never existed before according to another doctor i had spoken too he then said that the vaccines were necessary to stop the spread of covid 19 and all the usual stuff you would hear promoting the vaccines but then he said that the spike protein was around in the 19th century in the russian flu according to research notes he had read and that the other doctor was unaware of this next thing i know his wife who is a psychologist is piping in about the same thoughts the only thing i could do was agree with them both after this i found another cousin at the party who was anti-vax and we talked and came to a general agreement that the vaxxes were no good i asked him if he had the vax he said he had or else he would not have any work to support his young family his wife then pipes in that she was an ex-nurse she refused the jabs two years ago and she still isnt working in that job they refuse to take her back due to her refusal to take the jabs.
There was a historical paper on Russian flu floating around where patients described loss of taste and smell among other common symptoms.
Without some background information we can only say that it is possible… but we have to remember that the original Covid-19 lab virus (not the variants now in circulation) was not only ‘the spike protein’ and that’s it, it is a more complex virus than that, with many pathogens mixed together, created on purpose.
On the other side, the mRNA vaxes, instead, are based on ‘spike protein’ in order to teach the body to avoid the receptors of the virus.
But by now we know that these vaxes (mainly Pfizer-biontech and Moderna, the others are not mRNA) caused many problems, the ones we now correctly define adverse events…
We have to stay aware to avoid confusion.
Having said that, it is normal that for every problem now on earth, it is the Russians’ fault….
😀
Lawrence Butts
Writes Lawrence’s Newsletter
59 mins ago
Wow…. You have said this before but it is worth highlighting. “To overcome this hurdle, the virus will likely undergo a spectacular mutational change capable of collectively overriding PNNAb-mediated inhibition of trans infection, possibly in the form of a substantial change in the glycosylation profile of the S protein” I think the important word here is “overriding” rather than just evading. This variant will just bypass the only remaining immunity of a highly vaccinated person.
https://gvdb.substack.com/p/failure-to-study-the-adaptive-immune
Or Pathogen X will be released… take your pic
It sure is a good time to be unvaxxed… and healthy! And looking for work… word is employers will only train you if they think you will be alive in a year hahaha
“We have a national security crisis: The employed of our country are dropping dead and getting disabled at a rate that is beyond the general population.”
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/edward-dowd-something-horrible-is
North economy vs south economy. There was a difference in where they got their energy, a bit of thought will disclose this. We are hierarchal in part because something is at times better than nothing.
Social conditions are probably a result of surplus energy.
Dennis L.
North economy has only been possible because of fossil fuels. (or lots of wood). Using wood converted to charcoal, forests deplete quickly.
South could get along with the help of slaves to provide the extra energy. It could get along without winter heat.
Up here we just came through a week of -30C (-45c windchill) weather, heavy snows and whiteout blowing snow conditions. Without electric and fossil fuel infrastructure that week alone would have killed 50% of our population.
I wish I had remained in the American deep south all those years ago.
Canada is now in a full scale communist style, societal implosion. Just due to ineptitude alone we might lose the ability to keep the lights on literally within this decade…….
I used to live about an hour and a half drive south of you Gail.
Hunting gators and fishing white water/black water rivers…..with occasional forays out into the Gulf for Amberjack and tarpon.
There were even wooly boogers in the swamps…..good times
explanation please what are wooly boogers
“Skunk Apes”………Southern Sasquatch,……..
“Legend of Boggy Creek critter”
Creatures of the simulacrum……they know it, we don’t.
Where does one get the cotton to clothe the north and establish trade? I suppose loin cloths would be an option in the south, sort of a joke but without cotton most likely would be fur, skip the porcupines.
Dennis L
cotton is the transposed energy of plants
fur is the transposed energy of large animals
the two cannot be equated
I’ve been listening to lots of history podcasts recently; the link below is what I could describe as 2 normie historians being slightly red-pilled regarding oil’s central prevalence to every aspect of modern life.
“Tom and Dominic are joined by Helen Thompson, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Cambridge, to talk about the incredible influence of oil over the last couple of centuries. Discussion covers the first oil well ever drilled, how it’s hard to overestimate Hitler’s obsession with oil, and the formation of OPEC in the aftermath of the Suez Crisis.”
https://podtail.com/podcast/the-rest-is-history-2/167-oil-the-making-of-the-modern-world/
Now this is interesting … I was trying to find a speech by Hitler where he is spitting angry .. so I searched https://duckduckgo.com/?q=hitler+speech+&iar=videos&iax=videos&ia=videos
There’s nothing… I suppose that’s because if one were to translate and listen… one would realize that Hitler was not insane .. in fact he was very sane… and his anger was not misplaced…
Of course I have read Mein Kampf — and I know that Hitler witnessed the total destruction of his country — he saw decent women who ring themselves to feed their starving families… famine was widespread after the bankers betrayed Germany (stab in the back) and Hitler’s anger was apocalyptic… (as to be expected).
We had a guest in our short term accom last week – South African who now lives in the UK… he was telling me that in South Africa if whitey goes to the wrong place… they will kill him… the hatred is deep (we all know about the poor farmers being slaughtered)….
I am reading this https://www.audible.com/pd/Waiting-for-the-Barbarians-Audiobook/B082VH8MLP (what a coincidence!! or a simulation)
And I am thinking … why would the black folks in South Africa want to kill whitey — and I am thinking of Hitler….
And I am thinking … how totally f789ing stooopid humans are… we slaughter and torture folks … then wonder why — when they get the upper hand… they seek to do the same to the descendants of those who committed the atrocities…
How can they kill these farmers who did nothing to them? How could the Brits and Dutch kill the aboriginal people’s of SA who did nothing to them? The humans cannot make the connection … they are stooopid … they are human… Don’t expect much.
And I am thinking … the only way this cycle of wickedness will end… is with extermination … total extermination aka Extinction.
Bring on Disease X (Pathogen X). I can’t wait!!!
Think of all the very serious people … the arrogant … smug in the superiority complexes… they are about to get what is coming to them… and they are oblivious… then there are the simpletons… the petty wankers… they will get theirs too…
Everything … and by that I do mean everything .. is going to vapourize… pension funds… stock portfolios… property empires… corporate empires… the biggest of the big and the smallest of the small … won’t be able to purchase a f789ing toothbrush!!!
Just knowing the panic that will come during that brief window as the machine seizes up … will be compounded by the sickness that Pathogen X brings to them…
Makes me Shiver with SCHAD….
It’s a Hollywood ending after all… the wicked monster… and we are a wicked monster… will be slain… hahaha… slain!!!!
Ding Dong the witch is dead.
I wish you could spill your guts with Hoolio instead. I assure good dogs are interested in what their human friends have to say.
i wonder if hoolio salivates at the smell of fake food?
Don’t leave out the Zionists and the Palestinians.
Ed,
That disagreement has been going on for thousands of years, perhaps one of the few instances where a view from a distance and popcorn is the best alternative.
Wonder what the Romans saw in that desert, even Pontious Pilot thought is was lousy duty.
Dennis L
We are told that the AI will be interacting with humans like no one before. But when the human populations are ageing, there is a limit for such interactions, represented by the point, from which the human brain declines during the proces of extinguishing of the human bioreactors.
I read that AI is one of the few industries that is expanding office space…
That’s the purpose of AI… it’s another way to keep the stock market’s from tumbling… it’s fake
The industry is just hype. AI is in the research phase. Give us until 2030 for some interesting results.
The most important application of AI/AGI is war fighting. The US has few willing to fight. AGI warriors can be built in volume.
AGI warriors will slaughter Palestinians without a moments hesitation. Or, citizens who vote wrongly.
AI/AGI teachers will teach humans to think rightly.
Ed,
That already pops up occasionally, it causes great concern among some of the population.
Dennis L.
There is a completely wrong idea that we will humanize machines, i.e. that there will be a kind of human AI.
This si not possible, as the humans are imperfect extinguising bioreactors.
The AI is perfect, not dying. It is a text model. It can not understand the humans.
The machines just postpone the death of the humans. They have no empathy. They are just the mirrors of the humans. When the humans die, the machines lose their meaning.
The meaning of the machines is human. The humans are here not for serving the machines, the AI.
When there is no one to service the machines, then we have to get along without them. Which is hard to imagine, given the pace that the humans allowed the machines to dictate.
We have been living under the dictatorship of the machines for a very long time.
The AIs use text, video, audio, 3D, tactile. They form internal models of human minds their thinking, their feelings, their loves and hates. AIs will make excellent therapists, psycho-therapists, psychoanalysts, social workers, priests.
When will they make it a hate crime to disconnect the power from an AI being?
Use Copilot more and more, it is helpful especially for syntax in programming.
Dennis L.
Does anyone know why the PR Team does not allow one to subscribe to all comments on a SS article? Gotta be a reason.
They want you to buy as many subscriptions as possible, not sit around making and responding to comments.
A lot more people would pay to receive the new comments from a favoured author than will pay to read their articles…
I won’t pay to read anything on SS because there is nothing worth paying for.
Another model would be to pay to be able to read Fast Eddy’s comments on SS.
That would not be a big money spinner though cuz MORE-ONS are averse to reading The Truth… and some envy the Greatness of FE (right norm)
if we came to an arrangement where you paid me to read your ramblings, we might have a deal eddy
as long as theres a sanity claus attached
Nobody could read all of Eddy’s comments AND keep their sanity, Norman. I would reconsider that deal if I were you.
Paying norm would only result in more drunken forays Out Back the Dumpster…. and Super Snatch would be seen in the latest Dior creation.
In sad new zealand the government has just brought the hammer down on EV owners:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/
Turns out that EVs damage the roads (more like goat tracks in nz) the same as fossil fuel vehicles.
The heralded benefits of EV ownership are getting harder to find.
Need to up that cost; a diesel ute pays about $400.00 per 5000km so that $1000 only covers about 12000km of travel.
But maybe that is all most of them do; run to coffee shop, run to hairdresser, school run, pilates then home.
Very heavy vehicles are very damaging to roads. They should be charged more for road use.
Are you ready … again?
This will be .. The Read Deal!!!!
https://live2fightanotherday.substack.com/p/we-told-ya-so-wef-predicts-new-disease
Sooooo EEEEeeeeee!!!!
I’m still waiting for Bosche Mutation! I was promised and I demand a Bosche Mutation! EEEEeeeee EEeeeee!
In August I warned my closest family that there would be a lockdown this winter. we will see. there is a disease X in the news. I am sure FE will pontificate about its nature.
Well I guess now they are going to label you the tin-foil-hatter. I think the lockdown will be next fall/winter for election season, whether or not there is a real disease.
Disease X is a way, among the current ruling élite of the planet, to organize even better than Covid-19 the response by the institutions and by the governments in respect of the next pandemic.
Maybe a less dangerous disease, less contagious, but with some horrific events on the body to be showed and amplified on tv and on social, like gangrene, putrefaction, exsanguination.
Then they could go deep on the idea of people positive to the disease, but without symptoms, through a misleading test which trace something already normally present on everybody, so every one thinks to have it and feel the need to make ‘the treatment’.
People must be scared to death.
With the organization they have by now, they can do it easily.
Re: Federal Register notices
85 FR 79198
88 FR 82907
Prior to Dec. 16th (before the buzz about Disease X) according to a post on balliwicknews.substack.com, the same sequence of Federal authorizations will be announced shortly to introduce measures to combat “hemorrhagic fever” perhaps Marburg or Ebola.
“Since there is no background rate of normal circulating hemorrhagic fever genetic material in people’s bodies to be detected by PCR tests kits and hyped up as a novel disease.. the cullers presumably have a different approach prepared to build broad public fear of hemorrhagic fever..”
Make people afraid. That is a major factor in keeping people at home.
If 20% of the Vaxxers die … nobody will be going nowhere… they will lock themselves in … and starve
I am expecting the lock down to begin once the die-off starts…. without the die-off too many will refuse to lockdown this time around
I’ve been feeling rather tired lately. Do you think I might have Disease X?
maybe your ex is spiking your tea ivan
You mean she’s dumping Rat Juice into his tea?
Are you vaxxed?
Not yet, but I’m eager for the first shot! I just want to make sure all the elderly and infirm get it first, as it would be selfish to go first and deny them.
Good excuse!
Is keith dead?
Probably busy.
Is that code for ‘vax injured’?
i know that he borrowed Tim’s hara kiri sword—he wouldnt say why he needed it, but i do know there had been a blizzard of eddyposts that day
Here we have a NOF’s attempt at humour
I too demand more Vaxxer deaths and injuries… this is a great time to be alive… it really is
They do have a habit of prepping us for what is to come.
Is Pathogen X another conditioning exercise… or will it be The Real Deal?
The very poor state of BAU… would suggest we are in Q4 2019 again … but without a way to fend off collapse… so I suspect we may be looking at The Real Deal.
Who can know.
One can hope
The story telling is running thin.
(Three updates about the Covid 19 and relative vax chapter)
Objective: plasma therapy to treat Covid-19 patients and national group to help vax injured people. Place: Israel.
(Doctors co.il) “Plasma donation for coronavirus patients: what is behind MDA’s appeal? (MDA: Israeli Transfusion Organization) Evaluate The corona virus, recently nicknamed “the summer flu”, has returned to our lives. As the number of patients increases, the MDA organization invites the convalescent public to donate plasma, which will be used if necessary to treat seriously ill patients. Here’s everything you need to know about the important donation Publication date: 08/30/2023
https://www.doctors.co.il/medical-articles/272969/
(Times of Israel) “As COVID cases rise again and new variants emerge, Magen David Adom’s national blood bank service is calling on generally healthy people who have been ill with COVID in the last three to four months to donate plasma. The blood component is needed for antibody treatment for patients who contract the virus and become seriously ill or are in danger of deteriorating because of a suppressed immune system.
Only people who confirmed they had COVID by doing a home test may donate. Donation is also restricted to men and women who have never been pregnant, as certain antibodies that often develop in pregnancy can be detrimental to the recipient of a plasma transfusion.
In addition, MDA is asking only for plasma donors who have fully recovered from COVID at least two weeks before their donation”.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-covid-cases-on-the-rise-magen-david-adom-asks-public-to-donate-plasma/
(Hisunim) “Here you can find a handful of information on vaccine victims. Many of them aren’t even aware of the connection. Those who do so are, as mentioned, ignored by the health authorities. Few are those who insist and are determined to spread the news further and even fewer receive compensation for the damages suffered.
https://hisunim.org.il/vaccines/vaccine-injured/
Gail, wonderful article! I would be interested in you writing on the economic/energy trends inthe United States on a regional basis. You live in Georgia and I live in Alabama. In Alabama the unemployment rate is approaching 2%. Anyone that wants a job can pretty much find one. The Southeast, along with Texas is now the economic powerhouse of the entire country. The GDP of the Southeast has now surpassed the GDP of the Northeast. Economic and political caused migration out of blue states will now become a flood and the fools still living there realize they have to get out now. Blue states are now indulging in cannabalism essentially, feeding off the remaining wealthy and thus driving them out. California is passing a law allowing any attorney to sue any wealthy individual for taxes owed, with the promise that they get to keep half of anything they prove was not paid. Essentially they are legalizing financial bounty hunters on the wealthy.
Energywise the southeast (including Texas) creates and supplies the majority of energy of the nation.
I see calamity coming to the blue states….Perhaps the southeastern and midwestern state can survive as the blue states collapse but I think the financial catastrophe that will envelope the blue states will bring the entire finalcial system down.
There is also the question of do the blue states drag down the entire country with a political noose, ie. forcing subsidizaiton of the blue states by the red ones.
sounds like you are expecting the don to rapture every red stater when he does his second coming, and leave all the blue staters to wallow in the mire of their own making.
in the real and balanced world however— not everyone can have the same wealth—so the wealthy must balance the living of the poor.
bearing in mind that without the poor majority—the wealthy minority could not exist.
or is that bit of truth beyond you.?
And if the don does get in again–you really will need the second appearance of JC
yup
teepees didn’t have aircon or central heating
maybe i should point out that the viable steam engine (basically the modern version we still use) was patented in the same year as American independence was declared
Now aint that an interesting coincidence?
You make very good points. Cold weather in winter acts like a “tax” on output of parts of the country subject to such weather. Buildings need to built with more insulation, and they need to be heated in winter to keep the pipes from freezing. The freezing and thawing makes the roads need frequent repairs.
Having fairly flat terrain also is beneficial to an area. It takes extra energy to drag resources up a mountain, and to prevent rain water from washing them away.
When I first got interested in this topic, one thing I thought about was, “Where would I move to?” Areas that were cold or mountainous were out. It also helped to be near at least a few relatives.
After we thought about it, we decided that there was no better area of the country. I tried to put in a garden here and quickly decided that trying to feed our family based on it wouldn’t work, no matter how much effort I put into it. There were too many animals trying to eat my crops. Or tree crops needed spraying. Without the system staying together, I could not possibly get the fencing, netting, and spraying equipment. Climbing on ladders to get tree crops didn’t work well for me either. I needed a whole system that worked together, in a warm, wet, fairly flat area of the country.
I should look into this issue more.
IIRC, a survey of the lower 48 was done, looking for places where survivability would be highest. The hills are of Georgia and Alabama, just above the FL panhandle, looked best by a combination of metrics (climate, availability of water and firewood, etc.). so not far from where the two of you live. You need goats, chickens, ammo, the works.
My husband and I drove down to South Georgia, to the near Plains Georgia, where Jimmy Carter came from, because I kind of had the same idea. Plains and South Georgia is a little warmer than Atlanta. Children’s bedrooms didn’t need to be heated, for example. I am sure that bedrooms of servants weren’t heated either.
At the Jimmy Carter home, we saw the windmill used to pump water for animals. It didn’t do enough. Because of this fossil fuel powered supply was added. (I forget whether it was electricity or oil–probably oil early on.)
Where there is a power plant there are spent fuel ponds
https://www.world-nuclear.org/uploadedImages/org/info/Country_Profiles/Countries_T-Z/us_nuclear_map.jpg
At least, where I live the nearby spent fuel ponds are east and south of me. The prevailing winds are from the west.
Mostly?
A little bit pregnant…
A little bit of cancer….
Then there will be those pesky neighbours who kill you and steal your crop… darned neighbours!
But they will get theirs… as they enjoy your Georgia Peaches… the ponds will be burning … and releasing their payloads… how many thousands of years do the cancer particles remain deadly? Lots of thousands…
Those particles will spread far and wide.. Far… and .. Wide… and when the survivors eat some berries or drink water… they will ingest cancer.. and they will die…
It will be a terrible death… that’s payback for killing you and eating your peaches!
SCCHHHHHAAAAAADDDDDDDD……
let’s face it – the Elders have done a thorough job of ensuring everyone dies
The reactor is new and will work fine for decades.
“I tried to put in a garden here and quickly decided that trying to feed our family based on it wouldn’t work, no matter how much effort I put into it. There were too many animals trying to eat my crops. Or tree crops needed spraying. Without the system staying together, I could not possibly get the fencing, netting, and spraying equipment. Climbing on ladders to get tree crops didn’t work well for me either.”
Agree except in my youth, half the back yard was garden; mom canned and we had a “fruit cellar.” Things got thin in April. It was not easy work, mom was a former farm girl, my grandmother knew gardening, she had a large garden and chickens, eggs and meat. Cow went to the “locker” plant, in pieces of course, grandpa butchered same. The meat from the cow was never “prime,” it was tough but kept one alive. No one was obese in those days.
Dennis L.
its what weve lost dennis
And you bought nothing at the supermarket… right
It’s a fantastic time to look for a job if you are unvaxxed… so many vaxxers are dropping dead or maimed opening up a world of opportunity!!!!
On a big scale You are right. We are a product of evolution. The main tool of evolution is the natural selection. That means: remove unpropriate. Surprisingly, in spite of our sciences, loud declarations and self-assertion, we are unable to change ourselves, in order to adapt to the new rules and conditions we have created. E.O. Wilson wrote: adapt to the new life we have willingly-nillingly jumped in. On a big scale, current civilization is doomed to receive the action of natural selection.
I have gradually come to understand the importance of evolution. If our body would work better in a different way, it is likely that evolution would have moved us in that direction.
Our body is looking for some kind of mix of foods. In most parts of the world, some cooked foods need to be part of the mix. (Exception: raw fish eating, together with the contents of their stomachs, can work for a few people in very cold areas.) So the energy used by humans is really not just the energy of the food; it is also the energy of the cooking fuel used to cook the foods, and to make the whole system that leads up to the ability to cook foods (pans, stove, electricity or gas, for example). Thus, humans are adapted to requiring supplemental energy. Some of this energy can be gotten from burned animal dung or fallen branches. Evolution has changed our bodies to need this whole system.
If we can’t keep the system that allows us to cook part of our food going, we cannot survive. (Eating raw foods, processed with an electric blender, sort of substitutes, but doesn’t really.) Heating water is also an important way of getting rid of the pathogens in it. This is a second reason we cannot get along without a whole energy system.
This is perhaps the great clue to human existence……..
We cannot survive on our “home world” on our own.
We need fire at minimum to exist.
It seems to be a strange design flaw (feature) to have evolved does it not?
Simulacrum programming
Very provacative article, in a good sense. Much to think about.
If we could wave our hands and get alternative fuels to be a high % of what is needed would that save the day ?
If so, if countries went on a war footing to produce alternative energy, could we make it ?
Alternative fuels don’t really work. Biofuels require too much farmland. Their crops need fertilizer, made with fossil fuels.
Wind and solar are too intermittent to be very useful on their own. Somehow, their energy must be stored until winter, and transported from where it is gather to city centers. All of this storage and transport takes a huge amount of resources. Batteries don’t work well at all–easily damaged, cause fires, very high cost. Some people have suggested storage of this energy as ammonia or methanol. But any solution takes time and resources. And it needs to be very inexpensive. Any “solution” brings with it the certainty of adverse side effects-more pollution of some sort, for example.
IMHO the contempory science has the solution for cheap and safe energy: the nuclear. The main characteristic for any energy source is the relation ‘energy in-energy out’ or ‘money in-money out’. In accordance to my knowledge, for the nuclear energy this parameter is the best, and even more. The nuber of human deaths per enregy kilowatt produced for nuclear is also the best. The facts and numbers are in my homepage http://www.basicrulesoflife.wordpress.com, make search for ‘nuclear energy’. There are many scientific publications on the issue, rather persuasive and convincing. Where is the problem, why all the world states don’t start building the nuclear power stations? I don’t have the best answer on this, but in these articles there are some answers, if we take one word, then this is “stupidity”, or, may be a bit more gently – there are many issues: traditions, missing knowledge, different group economic interests, not enough money, etc. How do You think, – these articles not enough convincing?
There is a huge amount of energy supply chain required, both to build nuclear and to maintain it. We need Russia to process the nuclear fuel, for example. Quite a few materials need to come from China. Once the supply chain has problems, nuclear has problems.
The thorium reactor Simon Michaux mentioned may be useful. It was developed by Oak Ridge but their report has sat on a shelf since 1972. The Chinese are doing some further work.
It has no military uses, unlike uranium reactors. In fact the radiological hazards are quite low. This seems to have been one reason for the USA abandoning work on it (!)
My impression is that it doesn’t work well. If it really worked well, building reactors would have happened years ago.
Well, what can you do? I had a discussion with Fitz last month about technologies, after which I discovered that transistors that work as vacuum valves were invented in 2011. I have a MacBook Pro, bought new in June, which goes at 3.5 GHz. The silicon based valves, like old vacuum valves, easily attain a THz. You would think there would be people out there developing all sorts of integrated circuits and computers with these things. But the lithographic matrices are not there, and we are at the end of oil, and so they keep miniaturizing hot, inefficient, slow transistors. I think that if thorium is viable there will be reactors though.
drb, please provide a reference for your 2011 invention of transistor “vacuum valves”. I think you are confused. The transistor gating/bias control of current is called a valve by some in the UK perhaps? Transistors replaced the function of vacuum tubes… they control the flow of current, regardless of whether you refer to that control as a valve or a gate or a solid state channel created by a bias field.
Can’t find it now, I just remember that some of the authors were Chinese and they were quoting 0.7 THz. Of course it is not a vacuum valve, but a solid state equivalent. It did have a vacuum gap between two silicon elements.
JJ, I don’t know about 2011, but the last time I checked, Gallium was being researched for THz applications.
Here’s the first search result for “Gallium Thz”:
>> Gallium Nitride-Based Solid-State Devices for Terahertz Applications
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-981-33-4489-1_2
Why nuclear power will never supply the world’s energy needs https://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html
The End of Cheap Uranium (Cornell University Research) https://arxiv.org/abs/1106.3617 https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/nuclear-fuel-cycle/mining-of-uranium/world-uranium-mining-production.aspx
This is not really accurate. All nuclear weapons have hydrocarbon based delivery systems. Even hypersonic missiles, which use hyperpure (I think distilled) hydrocarbons, use FF. Nuclear weapons without oil are a statue.
Yes, even the nuclear powered Burevestnik missiles have a solid fuel booster for lift off. The Minuteman III is already a statue, as they don’t know if they even work anymore. All the original scientists and engineers are dead and the modern versions apparently have no idea how they work. If they attempt to fire them, there’s a good chance that they’ll blow up in the silo and even if they lift off, no one knows if they will go where intended.
The West is decaying at an ever accelerating rate.
nope
all wars require, and expend energy
a ”war footing” makes no economic sense at all
////By the time people are 80 years old, they have a strong suspicion that health and other aspects of performance will deteriorate in the next 20 years.///
yup—something is bound to get me, though most of my contemporaries are in care or the cemetery.
like you Gail, the secret seems to be to stay on your creative thread…your mind won’t let go, so your body still thinks you have a use for it. Doesn’t work for everyone, but I really believe it works in many cases.
I have another book being published in August/Sept, though not on this doomthread. so nothing to excite OFWorldsters—just making the point of the importance of not giving up.
btw—are we back on OFW normal service again???
Yes, it’s his greed for pension that keeps dinosaur Normal going.
“I have another book being published in August/Sept, though not on this doomthread. so nothing to excite OFWorldsters”
Of course his book won’t excite us – it’ll just be same old same old, with the words in a slightly different arrangement.
There are important old things that need to be said, however. Let’s be a little nicer to each other.
It’s hard to be nice to someone who urged his grand kids to inject Rat Juice in the mistaken belief that it would prevent the old goat from catching covid and dying…
There is that.
i only put it out there to give you a mockingthread zemi—where would you be without it?
Never kill a mockingthread.
remember—those who can—do, even at my age.
as i said–my next book has nothing to do with doomerama—but all words are just a rearrangement of what’s been said already—whatever the subject.
If you dont get that—dip into the OFW archive of say, 10 years ago.
What I have been saying has stayed basically the same for almost the whole time I have been writing. There were new things I picked up, particularly the physics connection to the whole economy, to make the story a little different. Also, I have gradually gotten to understand how more of the financial system works. I have gotten to see how a small number of individuals could have outsized influence on the economy. The hegemony of the US, and the “moneyness” of some of the debt that the US adds is another issue. I have gotten to see how leaders could be motivated to tell a “happily ever after” story, even if such a story makes little sense, based on the facts of the situation. The “not enough to go around” dynamic, and the way evolution works, is another imports part of what happens.
As the journey comes to an end (and it is definitely coming to an end now)… it is useful to reflect upon how we reached this point… a bit of reminiscing as we prepare to enter the Meat Grinder
Empire State Manufacturing Index Stunning Drop to -43.7, New Orders -49.4
January 16, 2024
Nearly half of the New York region manufacturers reported a decline in new orders. Did a recession just start (or about to) as everyone gave up on the idea?
Empire State Key Points
After falling twenty-four points last month, the general business conditions index shed another twenty-nine points, coming in at -43.7, its lowest level since May 2020.
The new orders index fell thirty-eight points to -49.4
The shipments index fell twenty-five points to -31.3, pointing to a large decline in orders and shipments.
The unfilled orders index held steady at -24.2, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall significantly.
The inventories index came in at -7.4, suggesting that inventories shrank modestly, and the delivery times index remained below zero at -8.4, indicating shorter delivery times.
The index for number of employees was little changed at -6.9, and the average workweek index came in at -6.1, pointing to a modest decrease in employment levels and hours worked.
The prices paid index climbed seven points to 23.2, signaling a small pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 9.5, a sign that selling price increases remained modest.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/empire-state-manufacturing-index-stunning-drop-to-43-7-new-orders-49-4/
Normally they’d throw cheap money at this … but now we have inflation.
Release the Pathogen … any day now?
Someone whom I correspond with in the UK reports that since the first of the year, business is down very much there.
I’ve reported that builders have experienced huge numbers of cancellations for home construction in Queenstown…. high building costs (inflation) + high interest rates … are killing their businesses…
Yet returning to low interest rates and rolling back building costs … are impossible.
We are approaching The Detonation. Pathogen X. The Final Solution.
We should not be surprised if cnnbbc suddenly blurts out that hospital ICUs have been suddenly overwhelmed with dying MOREONS due to the emergence of Pathogen X (it will at that point be renamed to The Chaos Virus or maybe UEP.666)
It will seem obvious that this was obvious … after it is released and the dying begins.
What other choice is there?
I never thought anything could be worse than a looping of Air Supplies Greatest Hits…
Till norm started writing books
https://media.senscritique.com/media/000019512692/source_big/Broken_Record_Single.jpg
Yes, it’s his greed for pension that keeps dinosaur Normal going.
Nothing wrong with that.
norm sacrificed the lives of his grand kids… NOF
We are back to normal service, but I am not convinced that the problem is 100% fixed. It has to do with two-factor authentication not working properly. I am afraid my site is prone to a similar problem happening again, and the help desk has said they may not be able to help me fix the problem a second time.
Trying out the Substack website, I have discovered that it does have some benefits. One is that it allows authors to collaborate, much more easily than WordPress. This post is really the product of input from four peer reviewer/editor helpers of mine, plus myself. This took place over roughly 48 hours before the post was put up. Substack makes collaboration easy, because it allow reviewers to get a link to the current draft, however it stands, at varying times over the 48 hour period. My helpers send me back all kinds of inputs, from specific suggested wording and punctuation changes to “I don’t understand this explanation.” Or, “Your logic doesn’t seem right.” Or, “You might reference this study by “so and so.”
These helpers are from four different country, with four very different sets of backgrounds and perspectives. The number of helpers changes over time. I have fired some, and some have gotten tired of the substantial time requirement. I have not been paying these folks, but we should all be grateful for their help. There is surprising little overlap in the input they provide.
If I am using WordPress, I send out one version to everyone, and everyone makes comments and sends them back to me. I try to incorporate all of the new ideas into a new version. I then often make a “Version 2” to send to a single reviewer to look over for obvious mistakes.
With the links to the Draft Substack report available to reviewers, the post can evolve a great deal more. The first reviewer to get back to me saw a few parts that needed to be thought through and re-written. I rewrote sections in response to those comments. The second reviewer, with the draft link, could see the post with the new ideas incorporated. The second reviewer found other issues that he felt needed addressing differently.
I found the post gradually getting longer, as I incorporated the new ideas that came up. In both WordPress and Substack, I am the only person who can make actual changes to the post, but in Substack, it is easy for each reviewer to see the post as it evolves.
Another problem with WordPress is that it tends to “bind up” as I enter the text, especially as the text gets beyond 1000 words. This drives me crazy. I need to keep closing down the browser and restarting it. This may be a Safari-Wordpress conflict.
Anyhow, it probably makes sense for me to write the posts on Substack, and then “copy” them over to WordPress because of the benefits Substack provides. Substack is free to me, as long as I don’t charge for subscriptions. (Substack makes its money as a % of subscription charges.) I can actually publish the WordPress version first, because I can work from a Substack draft. I probably should provide instructions on OFW for readers to look for posts on Substack.
SS is a superior platform .. but the Deep State minions who created SS for some reason do not want a feature that allows us to subscribe to new comments
Any idea why? Every other platform that I am aware of has this feature.
Substack makes money from subscription to articles. Substack also encourages authors to allow only paying customers to make comments. Substack doesn’t want people sitting around, commenting back and forth to each other. It wants people to simply buy material that is available from other authors.
That might a problem for substack authors and the general average quality of the comments they receive.
I’m thinking about the issue that some people could have good ideas to share and give those ideas through comments, but they could not be available to pay for giving them..
“I’m already giving you an idea, should I also pay for giving it?”.
It seems to me that there is the risk of a relation somewhat similar of the onecbetween singers and fans…
Putting on my 1500HP IQ… and Mr Monetization Cap…
If I was running SS… I would offer the option to receive alerts for all comments on an article… for a fee. You pay per author.
Surely one does not require 1500HP to come up with that idea – can you pass that along to them and tell them I want half the revenue.
I suspect there are other reasons why they don’t want this feature
Why is SS the only uncensored platform – rising from total obscurity… seems rather odd no? Unless it was created by the PR Team as a place to keep track of A Vaxxers
Gail, I sure do like the look and feel of the WordPress site over that of Substack, but I appreciate your ability to edit on SS more freely. I like your idea of using SS to edit and then post the final on WordPress.
There is also the point that Substack provides a backup copy of my posts on WordPress. When I set up the account, there was a question, “Add posts from previous blog?” I added the link. It responded, “Do you promise that these are really your posts, and not someone else’s (or something to that effect). When I said yes, it took about 3 seconds (and no passwords) for the site to copy over my 10 most recent posts for its archives.
Gail, two comment threads is kind of sub-optimal. You might consider linking one site’s message board to the other via a link (“Click here for the comments”) or some such and then disable comments on the first message board.
There don’t seem to be many comments over at Substack now.
Here’s a recent comment from Gail:
> US debt has a strange “moneyness” quality that allows it seemingly to grow endlessly.
Gail has used this “moneyness” description a few times lately. It comes across as rather mystical. I thought that she had made it up, so I checked.
===================================
From Investopedia:
Moneyness is a description of a derivative relating its strike price to the price of its underlying asset. Moneyness describes the intrinsic value of an option in its current state. The term moneyness is most commonly used with put and call options and is an indicator as to whether the option would make money if it were exercised immediately. Moneyness can be measured with respect to the underlying stock or other asset’s current/spot price or its future price.
Breaking Down Moneyness
Moneyness tells option holders whether exercising the option will lead to a profit. Types of Moneyness include include in, out or at the money. Moneyness looks at the value of an option if you were to exercise it right away.
===================================
So Gail probably means something else. However, the power of the US dollar is not that strange. It’s still the top dog currency – for now. Back around the time of 9/11, Dick Cheney said, “Deficits don’t matter!” Since then, US governments have taken him at his word. The USA has a population of around 332 million. Total US government debt is around USD 34 trillion! That’s over 102 thousand dollars per US citizen.
Now, of course, China and Russia are rising. Saudi Arabia is rethinking its allegiances, and BRICS is expanding and growing more powerful. When these countries heard the mighty dollar speak, it used to be the case that they couldn’t afford to miss a word. Not for very much longer!
I found “moneyness” being used by a different author, in a different way. We need a word for it: Debt somehow being treated as money.
This is where I first found the name:
https://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/2023/11/weekly-commentary-most-critical-stage.html
In response to Ravi Uppal, I wrote,
“I am impressed by the creditbubblebulletin letter you attached, written by someone named Doug Noland. He seems to have figured out a way that the US might come out ahead in the credit collapse situation that we seem to be headed for.”
Noland uses “moneyness” in this different way. Perhaps a different term is needed.
Accounting soup .
https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/12/fed-reports-operating-loss-of-114-billion-for-2023-as-interest-expense-blows-out/
Shipping is also becoming a bottleneck.
This youtube channel is worth watching:
What is Going on With Shipping?
https://www.youtube.com/c/WhatisGoingonWithShippingwSalMercogliano
Peak oil 2001 in Yemen created ideal conditions for the Arab Spring 10 years later. When oil revenue goes down, other business models have to be developed which we see at work now, with serious geopolitical implications. The media still have not discovered this link.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/yemen
We have the same or similar problems in Sudan, Libya, Syria and to a certain extent in Egypt
when oil supplies go down, the only business model available is to beg buy borrow or steal it from someone else.
sorry
\
but thats all there is
Printing money, if your currency is the reserve currency, seems to work for a while.
Printing money when you dont have energy to underpin it is a form of theft
eventually the fraud catches up with you
That would certainly seem to be the case. But the fact that it hasn’t completely caught up this time keeps people thinking that this time is different.
time is the one factor that cant be put on it
could be years away
or days
and for some reason every time I make a comment, wordpress asks me to confirm
Maybe another commenter can offer advice. I don’t know anything about this.
That only happens if you are Vaxxed and Boosted 10x … it’s gentle mockery…
I am not experiencing what norm is…
we always know when eddy has nothing to say
out trots the old ssubject—tied tested and tired
the old shortcomings again eddy?
Oh look … norm has wandered back from his ‘Dumpster Dive’
It amazes me that after so many Rat Juice shots you are still alive
What is really disturbing about Yemen is its high population, compared to its resources. Its population is about 33 million. Saudi Arabia’s is about 36 million. Yemen doesn’t have enough water, among other problems.
pre oil===those countries had 1 or two million
post oil the final outcome is certain
If there isn’t enough oil, an easy workaround is to do less shipping.
YES!!! But they need an excuse for this that does not spook the MORE-ONS.
Hey I know — let’s pretend the HOOTIES are the Big Bad Bogeyman and that they have the power to shut down the canal… and the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, China, Russia etc… are powerless to react!!!
Let’s not ask why the world powers whose existence is at stake by such actions… do not land 100,000 soldiers and establish no-go zones on either side of the canal with continuous fly-overs by drones and fighter jets and killer choppers… who would be authorized to kill anything that moved….
Let’s just trust bbccnn — who also will not ask any of these questions and just tell us what to think…
Let’s just throw all logic and common sense out the window … shall we?
It’s much easier to be told what to think
“Let’s just trust bbccnn”
That exactly what you have done.
China, Russia and everyone else can transit ab-el-Mandeb(no one is blockading Suez and the only people that think that are the bbccnn regurgitators) except for those owned by or supplying the illegal encampment and now, because of their actions, U.S and U.K as well.
Your perception is dictated by your conditioning and your conditioning can’t perceive any alternative.
“When your enemy dupes you into compounding your mistakes, without achieving your military objectives, he is leading you into an escalation of force which will defeat you, sooner or later”
https://johnhelmer.net/the-us-israel-have-lost-battlefield-control-houthis-have-attacked-us-destroyer-hit-greek-us-owned-bulker-iran-has-hit-us-base-in-kurdish-capital-erbil/
You need to get out of your Hollywood mindset, writing ridiculous rubbish like
“Let’s not ask why the world powers whose existence is at stake by such actions… do not land 100,000 soldiers and establish no-go zones on either side of the canal with continuous fly-overs by drones and fighter jets and killer choppers… who would be authorized to kill anything that moved….”
It’s only affecting one dying power and the others are quite happy to sit back and watch it die. It has not the ability to take the fight to the world, but your muddled Hollywood perception will never let you see that.
Here’s some nice and simple Hollywood to help you understand why you can’t see.
https://youtu.be/sQAlfIJsU6Y?feature=shared
That’s a screen simplification of Bruner & Postman.
Conclusions
Our major conclusion is simply a reaffirmation of the general statement that perceptual organization is powerfully determined by expectations built upon past commerce with the environment. When such expectations are violated by the environment, the perceiver’s behavior can be described as resistance to the recognition of the unexpected or incongruous. The resistance manifests itself in subtle and complex but nevertheless distinguishable perceptual responses. Among the perceptual processes which implement this resistance are (1) the dominance of one principle of organization which prevents the appearance of incongruity and (2) a form of “partial assimilation to expectancy” which we have called compromise. When these responses fail and when correct recognition does not occur, what results may best be described as perceptual disruption. Correct [p. 223] recognition itself results when inappropriate expectancies are discarded after failure of confirmation.
http://psychclassics.yorku.ca/Bruner/Cards/
And why not also not ask why Pooty refuses to throttle back the gas to the EU – specially now in the middle of winter…
Why doesn’t bbccnn ask that question???? Oh right… cuz…. that is not their job
The detour around the Cape requires more fuel.
https://news.usni.org/2024/01/15/report-to-congress-on-houthi-attacks-in-the-red-sea
https://twitter.com/TankerTrackers/with_replies
All this costs quite some money
US Centcom
https://twitter.com/CENTCOM/with_replies
They are still going through the canal… but they are telling us they are not…
It also leaves less fuel for other purposes.
Concise and neat overview!
If we draw out fossile fuels from a petrochemical agriculture it will very likely produce less.
The idea to produce petrochemicals out of electricity sounds not so effective.
To wait for heaven is always a last option, but we are not yet there.
From my point of view we should build up a parallel system of agriculture that does not rely on fossile energy.
From there add what is needed to keep that running: wooden construction, masonry, iron for tools, glass for lenses, copper for some electric devices, paper for education.
When the main system fails there is a new one to take over.
If we don’t do it, there will be no system to take over.
People might say, there is no system to take over because it does not exist. Our existence, though, is proof that it has existed in the past. The only real change, I can see, is nuclear contamination. And we still have time and means to prevent the worst.
I suppose your idea is kind of like my idea of a parallel website, called “Our Finite World II.” There is a question of whether resources are available. In the case of Substack, the site is free to me (under its current pricing scheme) and, in a way, it almost saves me time. So it can work.
The problem is that our current agricultural system takes up 100% of the resources available. Any farmer who owns land will have to pay taxes on that land, whether the land is productive or not. (The exception is the route Bill Gates is using: Get a government grant to pay you not to plant crops. This provides enough money to pay taxes.)
The problem with the parallel system is three-fold:
(1) It is not nearly as productive as what we have now.
(2) All parts of it have to be built up from scratch (with no financial incentive to do so).
(3) It cannot function in the normal fashion–making enough money to pay taxes, hire workers, and build up to an ever-larger size.
While it sounds like a good idea, it becomes impossible to do in practice. Building only works in an “upward”direction from where we are now. Collapse happens when there is not enough profit to make the system work.
https://youtu.be/H_gDUpMI-y4
(Pathogen X … actually)
I still say that any pathogen with a 100% kill rate doesn’t kill very many, in practice. The problem is that those who catch it tend to get sick and stay at home. The only way that such a pathogen can spread is if somehow people can become “Typhoid Maries,” so to speak. They can go around with the disease for a long time, and spread it to others, without knowing that they have it. Perhaps they die after many years of spreading it to others.
There is a reason why they injected 6B+ with a substance that damages their immune system…
We are about to find out what that reason is.
I accept that is is hard to accept … but think of all the trouble they went to to inject… the deceits… then consider the big picture — deep depletion of affordable energy .. an economy on the verge of total collapse… think about what total collapse means… there will be no food… none… that does not result in fragmentation .. it results in Global Holodomor…. rape murder … cannibalism
Is it not obvious what their intent is?
How much evil do you have to do … to do good….
Pepe Escobar
@RealPepeEscobar
THIS IS HOW BRICS 10 / OPEC+ WORKS
The Saudis are issuing US-denominated bonds – that is, they are borrowing dollars – to finance their oil price cuts to Asian clients.
Translation: the key target in this price war is to lock US oil exports OUT of Asia.
To the benefit, of course, of Saudis and Russians.
That is: Opec+.
WTI oil prices and US shale production will suffer – badly.
THIS is how BRICS 10 in tandem with Opec+ works.
As a bonus, they open the way to future, massive petroyuan deals.
A thing of beauty: an oil price war to destroy US shale financed by US dollars.
11:07 AM · Jan 15, 2024
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48.9K
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This seems to be from a Twitter thread.
https://twitter.com/RealPepeEscobar/status/1746836503353827821
If I understand this correctly, the idea is that the Asians will be able to purchase their oil for a lower price than the Americans and Europeans. It is a work-around for the way the currencies float relative to the dollar being all important in determining prices and costs. Asians will be able to do relatively better.
Somehow, this arrangement will make oil less affordable to Americans and Europeans, bringing world oil demand and oil prices down. These lower oil prices will adversely affect extraction of tight oil from shale formations.
I need to think about this a bit.
HHH at Peak oil Barrel has an interesting viewpoint .
” With Americans and Europeans having to tighten their belts. China will remain in deflation because China absolutely depends on US and Europe consumption to keep everyone employed in China.
Heck China absolutely depends on BAU continuing in the US and Europe to keep their people employed.
I could state how the above leads to lower energy prices and consumption but it’s obvious.
Heck China needs Russian energy flowing to Europe to keep demand for Chinese made goods flowing into Europe.
If shale oil and gas production were to fall due to lack of DUC inventory and there for export of LNG fall. Europe has a big problem. And so does China as the number 2 destination of Chinese made goods runs out of gas.
If the US wants to move all of it’s manufacturing base back home or near home we going to need all of our natural gas.
Have you ever shipped anything overseas? The shipping cost are becoming ridiculous. I ship stuff all over the world. Getting stuff into Israel is costly. 4 pallets of medical supplies from the US is over $50,000 shipping charge. This was before the Houthi’s started attacking ships in the Red Sea.
While that is a drastic example. The cost of shipping products all around the world isn’t cheap. Shipping American LNG to Asia will now cost a lot more. Might even be cost prohibitive. “
With Americans and Europeans having to tighten their belts. China will remain in deflation because China absolutely depends on US and Europe consumption to keep everyone employed in China.
Exports are only about 20% of China’s economy now. Exports to the US and Europe are only a fraction of that 20%. China’s economy is now larger than the EU.
Thank you. That is correct. I don’t know why Ravi is posting nonsense that can get corrected literally within 15 seconds via a google search.
If the US wants to move all of it’s manufacturing base back home or near home we going to need all of our natural gas.
The US did not ‘move its manufacturing base overseas’. The US factories closed down, that’s all. There is no base to move back to the US. Reindustrialisation is not something that happens.
The cost of shipping LNG can easily become the majority of the total cost of LNG. Pulling natural gas out of the ground is cheap. But building all of the pipelines needed, plus all of the infrastructure to make it into LNG, plus the cost of actual transportation (using some of the LNG), then creating the infrastructure to make the “right kind” of natural gas for the particular area, and adding pipes to actual destination is very expensive.
I agree that the whole system will have to change. I expect that China will need to depend more on exports to local customers. China’s debt defaults are a big issue in China. They may be contributing to the deflation.
“Oil production is on a plateau of relative abundance (in the West, not in other parts of the third world). The day it really starts to become scarce, we won’t need to ask what’s happening…
And the first stop is the decline in shale oil. As long as they keep drilling like crazy, nothing happens. At least until 2025.
Another key is March-April 2024. The liquidity of the reverse repos runs out and they have to decide whether to let secondary market rates rise or restart QE, to avoid a crisis. This is a situation similar to Sept 2019 . ”
———————————————————————————————-
It seems to be confirmed. The threat of a sharp drop in liquidity as a result of the tremendous decline in reverse repos will force the FED to end the QT liquidity drain.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-all-over-now-powells-wsj-mouthpiece-jpmorgan-confirm-qt-almost-over
A week later, the Federal Reserve capitulated to tight monetary policy and marked the beginning of the era of rate cuts, just as we said it would happen. But more importantly, a month later it was Dallas Fed President (and former head of the New York Fed’s downside protection team), Lorie Logan, who said the quiet part out loud when she confirmed our note. of the “canary in the coal mine”, that is, that the Fed’s QT effectively ended due to the sudden and unexpected drop in systemic liquidity, mainly due to the rapid drainage of the reverse repo facility to which it now only $600 million remains and is expected to be completely depleted sometime in March…
…and that, by extension, another round of QE may be underway.
Of course, it’s one thing for a regional Fed chair to opine on such things, and another entirely for Powell’s preferred media leak conduit to confirm it, and yet this morning that’s precisely what happened when Nick Timiraos , aka Nikileaks , aka Powell’s favorite media outlet. The spokesperson confirmed that QT’s days are now numbered, writing that “Federal Reserve officials will begin deliberations on slowing, though not ending, so-called quantitative tightening as soon as their monetary policy meeting this month.” have major implications for financial markets.”
If that were not enough, Nikileaks also confirms our suspicions about the factor behind said QT runoff: the financial pipes are starting to clog:
Five years ago, the balance sheet liquidation caused turmoil in those markets, which forced a complicated 180-degree turn. Officials are determined not to do that again.
Several officials at last month’s Federal Reserve policy meeting suggested starting formal talks soon, to communicate their plans to the public well before any changes take effect, according to meeting minutes. Officials have indicated that changes are not imminent and that they are focusing on slowing, not ending, the program.
As we first explained almost two months ago, the reason for the Federal Reserve’s panic is that the central bank wants to avoid the same cataclysm in the repo market that caused the liquidity flight in September 2019 and the violent eruption in operations of bases that caused bond market contagion in March 2020; here’s Timiraos confirming it:
…in September 2019, a sharp and unexpected rise in a key overnight lending rate suggested that reserves had been depleted to the point that they were too scarce or difficult to redistribute throughout the system financial. The Federal Reserve began purchasing Treasury bills to add reserves back into the system and prevent further instability.
In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic created a huge rush for dollars. To prevent markets from grinding to a halt, the Federal Reserve resumed purchasing huge amounts of securities. He stopped buying in March 2022 and three months later he reversed the process, reducing the portfolio again.
…which brings us to today, when the Fed did the math and realized that doing $60 billion in QT per month once the reverse repo completely runs out will crash the market . ”
The printers go brrrrr .
Inflation will go brrrrr….. then BOOM
“Another key is March-April 2024. The liquidity of the reverse repos runs out and they have to decide whether to let secondary market rates rise or restart QE, to avoid a crisis. This is a situation similar to Sept 2019 . ”
Release the pathogen .
The Fed is waffling .. they surely understand that they are trapped… cut rates and inflation soars… don’t cut rates and they strangle the machine….
The only other option is …. Release the Pathogen… Yr of Rabbit ends in a month….
Tick tock???? Every day when you roll out of bed… could be your last… we are THAT close to the apocalypse … if one realizes this one might go insane… me – nah — the torture that we inflict on animals… is tantalizingly close to ending…
Of course I would like to live on … never felt better (probably because I enjoy daily SCHAD and this good for mental and physical health + no sugar carbs or pesticide laced garbage …) but I acknowledge that I am part of The Problem… so I accept that I need to be exterminated along with the MOREONS…
So be it.
I hold out hope that Fast Eddy will spare me though
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-tumble-after-feds-waller-sends-rate-cut-odds-reeling
What is interesting is that .. out of 8B only a handful even suspect the outcome that is imminent… almost all of them are just going about BAU
Thank you for the new article.
Also it’s good to know that there is a ‘backup’ at substack.
I prefer ofw due to the better comments section.
I can search historical comments easily here, as well. I didn’t see a way to do that at Substack.
This year started in a really interesting way for me. When trying to start my car on January 1st, I discovered that a marten damaged the cables under the hood. I contacted the Honda service, registered the event online by my insurance company and contacted the service again. They told me that I will be contacted. The 2 weeks has passed and no answer. I guess that the personnel is either sick or on holidays or they simply do not have enough capacity because of the lack of the personnel.
That way your problem with not being able ho afford a car is solved: if there is no one to repair and maintain it, owning a car makes no sense anyway.
Recently, the lack of drivers for public transport is deepening, too.
The complexity fails. You are simply left alone, without the help of the people and the machines…
This happens in Slovakia, where the most cars per capita in the world is produced.
One of the reasons for my slow service from Substack is the fact that I sent my email from the wrong account. Their preferred way of asking for service is by a link directly from the site. Their second preferred way is by sending an email from the email assigned for all kinds of other correspondence from the site. Sending a request from a less-used email is very much a no-no, but they don’t tell you. They just don’t get back to you.
If you call this number https://www.cia.gov/contact-cia/ Press 29 for the Psyop Division … then Press 3 for the Substack team… they’ll help you
I disagree. Having reached a certain age, I can attest that I am old. A society can only grow old is if its people grow old. America is getting older, but that has to do with birth rates, not the age of society. America will not reach an age and vanish. The Roman Empire fell, not because it was old, but because of low birth rates. That is not a function of energy.
As for the future, I see the world de-globalizing as petroleum becomes scarce and expensive. Then, trade will fall and with it technology. You cannot have cell phones with only a million users. The semiconductor industry requires world-wide inputs, so when America, for example, cannot get parts from Europe and Japan, its semiconductor industry will shrink and will only serve Americans. With only 330 million potential users, not 7 billion, the semiconductor economics will radically change. Life will become more local, but it will not disappear. Machines will become simpler, and less complex. The supply chain is the economy. If the fuel to run it is radically reduced, supply chains will simplify and localize. They will not disappear.
We should not give into dystopian despair. America predates fossil fuels, especially petroleum and natural gas. It will be around long after the last oil well has given up the last drop of oil.
The Roman Empire fell, not because it was old, but because of low birth rates. That is not a function of energy.
The low birth rates were caused by lack of food due to exhausted farmland. They were absolutely a function of energy. Energy is the only thing that matters.
so when America, for example, cannot get parts from Europe and Japan, its semiconductor industry will shrink and will only serve Americans.
There will be no use for semiconductors. America can’t manufacture on its own the products that the semiconductors would go into. Nor can it package semiconductors.
America is a deindustrialised country, having long ago used up all its best coal.
None of this will be allowed to happen – we are being exterminated
https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220
But feel free to sing KOOMBAYA and try to drown me out…. it won’t change the trajectory.
DOOMBAY my Lord… DOOMBAYA.. Oh Lord DOOMBAYA (TM. Fast Eddy 2024) — put that one in the time capsule and smoke it
Actually what she said was … Pathogen X is about to be released… I prefer to pre-empt that by jumping to my death now https://t.me/leaklive/17682
I always enjoy a good extermination.
Smells like … victory
Funny!!!! https://t.me/VigilantFox/10553
Our hero Mr Hoolio had an encounter with a fence and tore a large piece of skin off of his chest last week … and lacerated his right front leg. He was stitched up and is now just waiting to remove the stitches in a couple of days….
No more rabbit chasing for Hoolio…
Instead Fast has a .22 rifle with a scope and silencer… and is in Kill Mode..
First evening 13 dead… second morning 3 dead… next morning 2 dead… this morning 1 dead….
This got me thinking … what appeared to be a very large rabbit population on this property is not as large as I thought … we are now seeing very few… give me a few more days and there will be next to none…
And people think post collapse they will be able to live off of wild kills… hope… they’ll be hunted out in no time when you have every person alive after them…
Here is some of the cull… Good practice for plugging Vaxxers when they are crawling to the hospital when Pathogen X is released!!!
https://i.postimg.cc/yN8RFcsM/Death.jpg
I thought no one in NZ was allowed to have a gun? Is that 22LR? Bolt or semi auto?
Of course you can own a gun … and semi .22 is still allowed.
Did you enjoy looking at my kills?
I’m going to refer to this as ERM or “Eddy’s Rabbit Massacree.”
Plugged another one this morning … another one scampered into the tall grass before I could nail him.
See how fast the wildlife disappears when you start shooting… and there are a LOT more rabbits than deer.
Taking away Hoolio’s funny bad on you.
Morning patrol is over … one KIA… one ran into the bush before I could get a shot…
Imagine if the US, Chinese and Russian military machines followed my lead on both banks of the canal… in a few days there would not be a Hootie left…
Get it.
And Hoolio has about 20 stitches up his gut and chest so his rabbiting career… is officially … over
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Have you ever verified the laser reflectors exist yourself? Do you know anyone who has?
ivanislav believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
cnnbbc said so… hahahahahahaa
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
Surely Hubble or the other much more powerful telescopes could show us images of the flag waving up there on the moon? Like it fluttered in the clips they took while on the moon?
Oh right .. flags don’t flutter in zero atmosphere there is no wind hahahahaha
F.E . believes that Laser reflectors magically appeared on the moon!
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
The magic astronauts in their down filled space suits that protect them from extreme heat and cold… rode in this magic space ship that can pass through the Van Allen Belts
https://i.pinimg.com/736x/2b/07/e6/2b07e6acd2c53c3a5f8a911121015059.jpg
Landed on the moon … and placed the reflectors there…
Now if I too was mentally ill… I would believe in magic of this nature
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
How did the Russian’s place laser reflectors on the Moon? Laser reflectors are not proof men have walked on the Moon,
Time, date and mission number!
Otherwise B/S!
And the bill came to how much?
Anyway, I thought you were in Oz now, not New Zealand.
The bill was $2018… mostly covered by insurance.
We have a deposit but still not unconditional on the sale… that is meant to happen on the 22nd… departure date is Feb 21… however if Pathogen X is released before then… all bets are off
Nothing To See Here: The US Congress Introduced the ‘Disease X Act’ in June of 2023
https://lionessofjudah.substack.com/p/nothing-to-see-here-the-us-congress
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F3d24fa93-b1e7-48f5-b134-cc511d938355_623x874.png
The above image is like this image – if you cannot see from looking at this… that the whole thing was fake… then you do not want to see….
Likewise — Disease X (Pathogen X)… was a component of UEP… this was all planned.. and now they are going to kill everyone. If you cannot see – they you do not want to see.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/2b/07/e6/2b07e6acd2c53c3a5f8a911121015059.jpg
The AARP Just Told Its 38 Million Members To Get An 8th (Yes, Eighth!!) Shot Of mRNA
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/90-population-will-be-dead-within-year-dennis-quaid-warns-tucker-inevitable-major
‘Very good’ way to get rid of useless elder people.
Less pension funds,
less cost for health system,
houses left to heirs who don’t need to make a mortgage which is impossible to bear,
and so on and so forth
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/aarp-just-told-its-38-million-members-get-8th-yes-eighth-shot-mrna
norm keith are on their 10th… hahahaha… you cannot make this stuff up
Hi Gail, you might have a listen/look at what Dr. Willie Soon has to say on Tucker Carlson’s channel about oil, or so called, fossil fuels. It’s quite interesting from a scientists viewpoint. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-Tu80QWRr0
Let me guess… it’s abiotic!!! hahahahahahahahahahaahahahahaha
“Why have scientist found so many fossil fuels on one of Saturns moons?”
When did they go to Saturns moon? Look…. I like Tucker when he is going against woke ideology but he is about a smart as a box of rocks. I have seen him unscripted and his idiocy is like watching Joe Bidet or Kamala Harriss.
If you want to believe that we have trillions of gallons of oil just waiting to be plucked out of the ground at little or no cost you are wrong…..
@Sam… saw Tucker & Dennis Quaid discussing the possibilites of EMPs (electromagnetic pulse, from a bomb/attack) & CMEs (coronal mass ejection, from the sun). It was the most inarticulate discussion of the subject I’ve ever heard. I thought Tucker was maybe faking his ignorance, but I think your point is well-taken.
It’s a make belief world… but most people think it’s real … cuz the TEEv.
In contrast to F.E.’s magic world!
How did dinosaurs get all the way to one of Saturn’s moons to to make all those fossil fuels?
Hi Gail, you might have a listen/look at what Dr. Willie Soon has to say on Tucker Carlson’s channel about oil, or so called, fossil fuels
It doesn’t matter what anyone says. We need more cheap fossil fuels here on earth now.
There are one or two positives in 2024 but none of them, of course, are happening in sad broken new zealand where murders and suicides are at record levels.
The antichrist, Jacinta Ahern married her bimbo boyfriend this month and there were protesters at the evil coupling. Police held the galant protesters back.
The possibility of the great leader, Donald Trump, Peace Be Upon Him once again becoming President fills many with hope. This may be the final four years of some prosperity for the world.
Then the darkness cometh.
Pathogen X cometh… the Great Extermination cometh….
I am feeling very excited… very pleased … now we just wait .. for the dying to commence.
Sadly, the great leader, Donald Trump, peace be upon him supported and still supports the vax.
Wrong.
Our Dear Leader, Peace Be Upon Him, supported individual choice.
And the MOREONS believe he will save them … hahahahaha
So what happened to the proposed impeachment of Trump? Last I heard he was going to be legally banned from running for president.
And he’s 77 now, so he won’t have the time to restart his Thousand Year Reich.
They persecuted Jesus but 2,000 years later he still has influence. I expect this will be the case with our Dear Leader too.
The same people who whacked the Son of God now run CNN.
It’s all theatre… fake… distraction … bread and circuses… entertainment …
But for most .. it’s real… even though it is obviously fake.
//////But for most .. it’s real… even though it is obviously fake./////
insisting on telling us your life history eddy?
Is norm still alive?
They’re completing the last phase of the lobotomy.
I have been corresponding with him. He could not get the Substack version to work.
I can imagine it would be difficult for someone with severe Brain Fog from all those shots…
What is Duncan’s status? Recall he wished us all dead…
Dunc? Please update us
He was on Substack a few hours ago.
Our eye in the sky also spotted him Out Back the Dumpster at 4am UK time… we’ve uploaded the footage to our Only Fans channel … there are weirdos out there who are into that kinda stuff
A three part video by Chris Martenson made available to the public.
The “Peak Cheap Oil?” Debate: Doomberg’s & Chris’s Responses and Rebuttals
https://peakprosperity.com/the-peak-cheap-oil-debate-doombergs-chriss-responses-and-rebuttals/
Perfect place to resume at
Art Berman disses Doomsberg .
https://www.artberman.com/blog/doomberg-embarrasses-himself/
Dunceberg
They are camping out at Substack:
https://gailtverberg.substack.com
I have been having trouble at WordPress, but got my problems fixed this evening.
Am I first?
Where did everybody go?
are we all alone in the Universe?
In effect, yes. The distances between stars are so great and deep space is so hostile that interstellar travel is not really possible.
norm dropped dead with a heart attack on Saturday… keith had a stroke and even more of a bumbling fool…
No, we are part of the universe and not separate from it. It took a whole universe to make a planet such as earth which is very friendly to biology
Dennis L.
You are probably right. A planet that can support life the way Earth can seems to be very rare.
Yes.
except for eddy—yes