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Historical data show that, to date, a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. The world economy will face a bumpy path in a generally downward direction.
In this post, I give an overview of our current predicament. All economies are subject to the laws of physics. We are biologically adapted to needing some cooked foods in our diets. We have also moved away from the equatorial regions, so many of us need heat to keep warm. With a world population of 8 billion, we are a long way from meeting all our energy needs with renewable sources alone.
The world’s fossil fuel supplies are depleting, but politicians cannot tell us the true nature of our predicament. Instead, we are told a “sour grapes” narrative: “We need to move away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change.” What this narrative, in fact, seems to do is shift an ever-greater share of fossil fuels that are available to less-advanced economies. It may also spread out the use of fossil fuels over a somewhat longer period. But there is no evidence that this narrative actually reduces the overall quantity of carbon dioxide emissions. Instead, the more advanced economies are likely to be hit sooner, and harder, than the less advanced economies by the problem of energy limits, pushing them on a bumpy road downward.
[1] Economies tend to collapse because populations rise faster than the resources (particularly energy resources) required to support those populations.
We are dealing with an age-old problem: Humans are able to outsmart other animals, and for this reason, human populations tend to rise except when external conditions are quite adverse.
The necessary steps needed for humans to outsmart other animals began about one million years ago, when pre-humans first learned to control fire. With the controlled use of fire, humans could
- Cook food to make it easier to chew and digest.
- Kill pathogens by cooking food or boiling water.
- Scare away wild animals.
- Keep warm in colder climates.
- Eat a more varied diet, with more protein. Primates eat mostly plants; humans are omnivores.
- Spend less time chewing food and more time working on crafts.
- Indirectly, the shape of the human body could change. Teeth, jaws, and guts became smaller; brains became larger.
After 1800, when fossil fuel consumption began to grow, human population started to rise at an unprecedented rate. With coal, it was easier to make metal tools, including cooking utensils, in reasonable abundance. While it is possible to smelt some metals using charcoal (made by partially burning hardwood, then cutting off the air flow), doing so tends to lead to deforestation if more than a small quantity of metal is made.
Figure 1 indicates that population had started rising well before 1800. Thomas Malthus wrote about the difficulty of increasing food supply as rapidly as population in 1798. The problem of rising population exceeding resources is an age-old problem.
[2] The physics reason for the limited lifespan of economies is not understood by many people.
In many ways, economies are like humans and hurricanes. In physics terms, all three are dissipative structures. They need to “dissipate” energy of the right kinds to remain “alive.” All dissipative structures are temporary in nature. No dissipative structure, including an economy, can stay away from a cold, dead state permanently. Usually, dissipative structures are replaced by slightly different dissipative structures. This process allows long-term adaptation to changing conditions.
Dissipative structures are self-organizing. They seem to act on their own. Our human leaders may believe they are completely in charge, but this is not really the case. The economy seems to choose its own course, just as humans and hurricanes do.
The energy products that humans require are food products, some of which need to be cooked. The energy products that economies require are of many kinds, including solar energy to grow crops, human energy to tend the crops, and many types of fuels including firewood, coal, oil, and natural gas. Electricity is a carrier of energy produced by other means. Much modern equipment uses electricity, but trying to transition to an all-electric economy is fraught with peril.
In today’s world, energy products of many types act to leverage human labor. As far as I can see, growing fossil fuel consumption is the primary reason why human productivity grows.
Oil is especially important in farming and transportation. Coal and natural gas are important in steel and concrete manufacturing, and in providing heat for many processes. Years ago, oil was burned for electricity, but today coal and natural gas are the fuels typically burned to provide electricity. Fossil fuels are also important for their chemical properties in many different goods, including in plastics, fabrics, drugs, herbicides, and pesticides.
Using renewable energy, alone, sounds like a good idea, but it is not possible in practice. Forests were the major source of energy to support the economy before the advent for fossil fuels, but deforestation became a problem long before 1800. The world’s population, even at one billion, was too high to sustain using biologically renewable sources alone.
At a population of around 8 billion today, there is no way that wood, and products derived from wood, can support the energy needs of today’s population. Doing so would be like humans trying to live on a 250 calorie a day diet instead of a 2000 calorie per day diet.
What are referred to as modern renewables (hydroelectric power and electricity from wind turbines and solar panels) are really extensions of the fossil fuel system. These devices can only be made and repaired using fossil fuels. In addition, today’s electrical transmission system is only possible because of fossil fuels.
[3] Advanced Economies tend to be “advanced” because of the large amounts of fossil fuels they use to leverage the labor of their citizens.
In my analysis, I use the term “Advanced Economies” to mean countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). “Other than Advanced Economies” are then equivalent to non-OECD countries. I use this terminology because it better describes the reason why these two groupings have such different indications. Also, it is not intuitive that such a difference underlies these two groupings.
My analysis shows that energy consumption per capita is much higher in Advanced Economies than in Other than Advanced Economies, for all three energy charts shown: oil (Figure 2), all other kinds of energy grouped together (including renewables) (Figure 3), and electricity (Figure 4).
It is clear from these charts that the general trend in energy consumption per capita in recent years is down in Advanced Economies, while the general trend in energy consumption per capita is up for Other than Advanced Economies. To me, this means that the self-organizing economic system favors Other than Advanced Economies in the bidding for scarce energy resources.
One interpretation might be that Advanced Economies are using energy products in a wasteful way, compared to Other than Advanced Economies. The self-organizing world economy in some sense tries to maintain itself, even if some less efficient parts need to be squeezed down or out.
The narrative we hear from politicians and others is that Advanced Economies are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change. This seems to be the narrative the self-organizing economy provides to people who live in Advanced Economies. I will discuss how this occurs, and its lack of success in reducing overall carbon emissions, in Section [5] of this post.
[4] Figures 2, 3, and 4 (above) reflect the impacts of several events leading to a squeezing down of energy consumption per capita.
The following are some events that indirectly squeezed back the energy consumption growth of Advanced Economies:
- Oil prices spiked in 1973-1974, leading to recession, indirectly in response to US first hitting oil limits in 1970.
- Severe recession, in response to Paul Volker’s increase in interest rates in the 1977 to 1980 timeframe.
- China was added to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in December 2001, allowing it to ramp up its manufacturing using coal. This primarily represented an increase in energy consumption by Other than Advanced Economies. At the same time, it removed a great deal of manufacturing from Advanced Economies, so their energy consumption should have been reduced.
- The Great Recession of 2007-2009.
- The 2020 pandemic and its response.
A person can see the impacts that these changes have had on per capita oil consumption (Figure 2), energy other than oil consumption (Figure 3), and electricity consumption (Figure 4), by looking for these dates in the charts, and noticing what changes in trends took place.
Figure 2 shows that there were very large cutbacks in oil consumption per capita in Advanced Economies, prior to 1983. In this early time frame, cutbacks in oil usage were fairly easy to obtain. Some examples include:
- US-made cars in the early 1970s were large and fuel inefficient, but Japan and Europe were already making smaller vehicles. By importing smaller vehicles, and making smaller ones in the US, major savings could take place in oil usage.
- Some oil was being burned to generate electricity. Such generation could be changed to natural gas, coal or nuclear.
- Home heating often used oil. Such heating could be replaced with heat based on natural gas or electricity.
With respect to China joining the WTO in 2001, and this action leading to much greater consumption of coal for manufacturing, these actions ironically followed the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. According to this protocol, Advanced Economies indicated that they planned to reduce their own carbon dioxide emissions. They did this by outsourcing manufacturing to countries not affected by the Kyoto Protocol. These countries were poor countries, including China and India.
It is possible to see the effect of this ramp up in energy consumption by Other than Advanced Economies in both Figures 3 and 4, starting about 2002. In theory, energy consumption per capita by Advanced Economies should have fallen at the same time, but it didn’t. This is one reason why carbon dioxide per capita started rising rapidly in 2002 (Figure 6).
One squeezing-out event disproportionately affected “Other than Advanced Economies.” This was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. All the countries involved in the Soviet Bloc were affected. Manufacturing in these countries dropped at about this time, as did all types of energy production and consumption. This can be seen as a small dip in the “Other than Advanced Economies” line between 1991 and 2001 in Figures 2 and 3.
While the Soviet Union had plenty of fossil fuels, the world oil price was very low (indicating oversupply). As a result, the country was not getting enough revenue for reinvestment in new oil fields and to repay debt and meet other obligations. The world’s self-organizing economy squeezed out the least efficient oil producer, which was the Soviet Union. The fact that the economy was Communist, and thus allocated resources and rewards in a strange way, may have also played a role in the collapse.
Figure 5 shows the widespread impact of the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union.
[5] The narrative, “We are moving away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change,” seems to be self-organized by the dissipative structures underlying Advanced Economies.
The real story is that fossil fuels are moving away from us. Somehow, we must adapt, very quickly, to this disastrous situation. But this is not a story that politicians can tell their constituents, or that universities can tell their students who are studying for future job opportunities. Instead, they need a “best case” scenario: There is perhaps something we can do; we can transition away from fossil fuel use quickly.
It is not possible to explain to the public what is really happening. Instead, a “Sour Grapes” scenario is presented. In this narrative, the current economy can continue, much as today, without fossil fuels. (This is clearly nonsense in a physics-based economy, with today’s “renewables.”) We should move away from fossil fuels because they add too much carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
It should be noted that this “we-can-move-from-fuels narrative” has been spearheaded by the International Energy Association (IEA), which is an arm of the OECD. (I mentioned earlier that I have equated OECD with Advanced Economies). Countries included in “Other than Advanced Economies,” at best, claim lip service to limiting carbon emissions. Their primary interest is in raising the living standards of their populations. To a significant extent, the fossil fuels that Advanced Economies decide not to use can be used by Other than Advanced Economies.
Figure 6 below shows that the efforts of IEA/OECD to reduce carbon dioxide emissions have worked in precisely the wrong direction, on a world basis. Preliminary data for 2023 shows that world carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose by another 1.1%.
The plan to reduce carbon emissions for participating countries was first specified in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. The World Trade Organization (WTO) began a little earlier than this, in 1995. The purpose of the WTO was to increase world trade and thus the total goods and services the world economy was able to produce. In some sense, the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO had opposite objectives. The only way more goods and services could be produced was by using more fossil fuels.
Figure 6 shows that fossil fuel emissions increased sharply after China joined the WTO in December 2001. China was able to ramp up its industrial production using its very large coal resources. It is not clear that the Kyoto Protocol did much besides encouraging Advanced Economies to move their manufacturing elsewhere. This paved the way for the industrialization of Other than Advanced Economies, mainly by burning coal. At the same time, the Advanced Economies have been turned into service economies that are dependent upon Other than Advanced Economies for manufactured goods of nearly all kinds.
NASA says that when carbon dioxide is added to the atmosphere, it stays around for 300 to 1000 years. NASA also reports that the increase in atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa was the highest ever in 2023.
The increases shown on Figure 7 are relative to a large base. As percentages, they range from about 0.2% per year in the earliest periods to about 0.6% per year in recent periods.
In summary, whatever the Advanced Economies are doing to restrict emissions still leaves the world’s emissions from fossil fuels, as well as atmospheric emissions, rising fairly rapidly. Given the self-organizing nature of the world economy, I am doubtful that there is anything we humans can do to fix this situations. The people in Other than Advanced Economies need fossil fuels to feed their growing populations, and to give them the basic necessities of life.
[6] Figure 8 shows the path that Advanced Economies seem to be following.
In my opinion, with less oil and other energy per capita, Advanced Economies have become increasingly hollowed out, with more of their manufacturing transferred to Other than Advanced Economies.
In Figure 8, economies start out small, with growing resources per capita. As resource limits are hit, economic growth slows, and well-paying jobs become harder to get, especially for young people. In agricultural economies, the problem is that farms need to get smaller and smaller if there are too many surviving children, and they all want to be farmers. Clearly, too small a farm will not feed a growing family.
In the case of Advanced Economies, they become hollowed out because they find themselves increasingly dependent on imported goods and services. Other than Advanced Economies, with lower wages, less overhead for heating/cooling homes and health care, and lower energy costs, can produce manufactured goods more cheaply than Advanced Economies.
As Advanced Economies lose manufacturing and industries such as mining, they also become more dependent on debt and government programs. This added debt becomes increasingly hard to service, especially when interest rates rise.
Advanced Economies become particularly vulnerable to adverse changes because they have lost the ability to manufacture many of the goods required for everyday living. In fact, it becomes a problem even to fight wars, because many of the materials required to make weapons need to be imported from overseas.
Over the long-term, collapse may occur, but this collapse is unlikely to occur all at once. Instead, it can be expected to be what is sometimes called catabolic collapse, which takes place in steps. Parts of the economy will hold together as long as there are resources to support those parts. Future changes in Advanced Economies can be thought of as being somewhat like the changes to the economy in 2020 (indirectly related to Covid-19), but “on steroids.”
[7] Some of the kinds of changes that can be expected.
We don’t know precisely what changes to economies lie ahead, but these are some ideas of things might happen to Advanced Economies before a full collapse.
[a] Loss of the “hegemony” of the US. In the years since World War II, the US has taken on the role of the world’s policeman. But the US has been having increased difficulties when it comes to actually winning the wars it gets involved in. It is very difficult for the US to make weapons in quantity when large parts of the supply lines involve other countries. Also, today’s weapons aren’t necessarily suited to dealing with today’s attacks, such as by the Houthi Group in the Red Sea.
Changes may already be starting. We hear about Victoria Nuland’s recent abrupt retirement as Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. She is described as “a determined advocate of tough policies toward Vladimir Putin.” She is being replaced, at least temporarily, by John Bass, who oversaw the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.
[b] Loss of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. The US has had a financial advantage, as long as all other countries had to first change their currencies to the US dollar, in order to trade among themselves. This arrangement allowed the US to import more than it exported, year after year. It also allowed the US to use sanctions against other countries to cut off their trading abilities.
Changes already seem to be starting to reduce the role of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In May 2023, Reuters reported, Vast China-Russia resources trade shifts to yuan from dollars in Ukraine fallout. Also, the BRICS nations have been working on an alternative currency, as a possible replacement currency for trading. And, of course, there are all kinds of cryptocurrencies that might be expected to facilitate purchases across borders.
[c] Major loss of trans-Atlantic and trans-Pacific freight trade and passenger travel. An easy way to save oil would be to stop shipping goods as far as producers do today. Unfortunately, quite a bit of what we purchase in the US has supply lines that start in China.
Without trans-Atlantic or trans-Pacific supply lines, many goods the US depends upon would disappear from shelves in the US. Computers and telephones, for example, might become unavailable, as would many drugs, especially low-cost drugs. Even high-quality steel drilling pipes, used for oil extraction, might become difficult to obtain.
It is not clear how the US would deal with this issue. It is likely that the economy would need to find substitutes or get along without whatever is lost due to broken supply lines.
[d] Significant defaults on financial promises of all kinds, including bonds, loans made by banks, rental contracts, and derivatives. Ultimately, a decline in asset prices seems likely.
The amount of debt and financial products used in Advanced Economies is at record levels. If a major recession occurs, debt defaults and derivative failures can be expected. Some renters will default on their contracts. Bank failures can be expected, as well.
Politicians will not want to throw people out of their homes; they likely won’t even want to take their automobiles away. Instead, it is likely to be those who are counting on wealth from long-term promises made by poor people who lose out. For example, some of today’s wealthy people may find their wealth disappears when renters cannot make payments on their apartments or farms.
If bank lending starts becoming a problem, peer-to-peer lending may start to take a larger role. This would seem to be the equivalent of replacing taxis by Ubers and replacing hotels by private citizens renting out rooms. The total amount of debt available will fall. With less debt available, asset prices of all kinds will tend to fall.
[e] Much more interest in reusing old buildings, old furnishings, and old clothes. Also, making use of salvaged parts of buildings and spare parts from old mechanical equipment, including automobiles.
If the making of goods that depend on overseas supply lines becomes difficult, substitutes such as previously used goods will likely be in demand. For example, we may go back to sourcing replacement parts from automobiles parked in junk yards.
Local entrepreneurs will find ways to make use of whatever goods can be used again. Such work may be a new source of jobs.
[8] We are likely to have a bumpy road ahead. Energy and the economy work together in very strange ways. While the path is generally downward for the world, the part of the world that uses energy very sparingly has a better chance of maintaining and even increasing its standard of living.
Our self-organizing economy puts together all kinds of narratives that lead us to believe that we certainly know the only path forward (and, in fact, we can control the economy to follow this path). But the system doesn’t behave the way we think it does. We assume that if we in the United States or Europe stop using fossil fuels, it will reduce the world’s use of fossil fuels. For example, stopping the Keystone XL Pipeline in 2021 was considered a great environmental victory. But now we read, Canada could lead the world in oil production growth in 2024.
This extra production will likely be going west to China and to other Asian destinations. Canada’s expanded Trans Mountain Pipeline will open in April 2024, adding 590,000 barrels per day of export capacity. If US protestors don’t want Canada’s “tar sands,” many people in China and other poor countries certainly want it. The very heavy oil that Canada produces is ideal for producing diesel, which the world economy is short of.
Likewise, the US may have bypassed easily mineable coal in its rush to shift electricity generation to natural gas. If the US cannot maintain its military strength, this coal becomes a valuable resource for any military power that wants to test its strength against the US. This available coal makes war against the US by other powers more likely. It is well known that a major reason for wars is to obtain energy resources for one’s own people.
We don’t know what is ahead. The “truths” that we are sure we know, aren’t necessarily true. The world economy seems likely to head downward slowly, but this general downward movement will be in spurts. Trying to predict exactly what is ahead is close to impossible.
Someone said Iran might nuke oilfileds1.2
There was a guy named Paul Erdman during 1970s. He became famous for stealing 1.2 million swiss franc from a Swisss Bank. He turned h
>> Someone said Iran might nuke oilfileds1.2
That’s the threat made in Dune, published in 1965, to nuke the “spice fields”. In the book, spice is what enables interstellar travel; a futuristic oil. Sometimes it’s unclear whether fiction informs history, or vice versa.
despite of all the odds against it, if the top portion (only!) of civilization goes thru the bottleneck and indeed becomes a Type I , Spacefaring, all sentient and controlling every corner of the earth,these
there is nothing to tell to the people who will be left behind other than the two words, “Too Bad”.
Which is why those who expect civilization to reach the next level of civ do not really give a crap about others, since they are irrelevant.
Although the creators of Don’t Look Up did add the alien creature who gets to eat Meryl Streep in the end to try to say that today’s winners, who DID reach a Type I Civ (spaceships which could travel for 20,000 years and reaching the target is Type I Civ worthy), will end up badly, the younger cohorts are just landing and they will launch flamethrowers to kill off these critters and start a new civ, aiming for Type II.
It was wrong to allow a higher standard of living for the majority of pop , a lesson which took 100 years for the top echelon to learn. Too bad about that, but at least they have learned and are implementing policies to rectify the problem of overconsuming resources essential for advancing civilization by people who are unlikely to contribute towards that goal.
What the Israelis are attempting in Gaza is a preview of what will be done about peoples who are unlikely to contribute anything to Civilization.
During a 1970s war between Israel and the rest of Middle East, Ayn Rand supported Israel, not because of her origins or because of religious reasons, but because Israel was more likely to contribute to civilization than the others.
This civilization war is the last gasp of civ. Like the Amiens offensive in April 1918, stopped by, out of all people, an Australian, John Monash, and now Australia faces 200 million Indonesians just above a channel. Good job, Monash.
Kulm, are you suggesting Israel is in a position of moral superiority to cleanse the earth of those deemed unlikely to contribute to civilization? Funny; isn’t that what the Nazi’s thought they were doing to the Juuews? I guess its all in the eyes of the deciders.
RU gooish by any chance?
There might be a little bit to this:
https://brownstone.org/articles/two-weeks-to-flatten-became-eight-months-to-change-the-election/
Two Weeks to Flatten Became Eight Months to Change the Election
In 1845, Congress established Election Day as the Tuesday after the first Monday of November. The Act sought “to establish a uniform time” for Americans to cast their ballots for president. Historically, voters needed to provide a valid reason – such as illness or military service – to qualify for absentee ballots.
But Covid served as a pretext to overturn that tradition. Just 25% of votes in 2020 occurred at the polls on Election Day. Mail-in voting more than doubled. Key swing states eliminated the need to provide a valid reason to cast absentee ballots. The virus and racial justice became justifications to disregard verification methods like signature requirements.
Rejection rates for absentee ballots plummeted by more than 80% in some states as the Covid regime welcomed an unprecedented increase in mail-in voting. Politicians and media outlets ignored rampant voter fraud in the months leading up to the election. They treated concerns surrounding absentee voting as obscure conspiracy theories despite a bipartisan commission describing it as “the largest source of potential voter fraud” just a decade earlier.
“If we count interest on the debt as also “mandatory spending” along with social security, Medicare and Medicaid …
Those 4 items combined exceed 100% of all government revenues.
Everything in the discretionary portion of the US budget is now financed with borrowed money.”
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1775210978243744067
I can imaging the US government transferring Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to the states to handle, to the extent they can afford them.
Not too much later, the US government will have to give up on paying its debt as well.
Gail, do the state actually have that amount of excess money?
No. Neither does anyone else.
Lol, the states, unlike the FedGov, can’t print money, so if the programs are transferred, the program will be dead. If the FedGov simultaneously stops the FICA withholding taxes which supposedly exist to fund SS and Medicare, the states could impose them and have some new taxes to pay benefits but the taxes won’t support payment in full.
You are right. States could collect FICA taxes, and these could be used to at least partially fund Social Security.
There is a lot of variation in the share of population over age 65 by state:
https://www.prb.org/resources/which-us-states-are-the-oldest/
Maine and Florida are the states with the largest share of old folks.
Utah, Alaska, Texas and Georgia have the lowest share of old folks.
It is really the healthcare benefits (Medicare and Medicaid) that are badly funded. Social Security is “better off” in terms of funding. Social Security could probably do OK in the states with fewer older people, but it would not work in a retirement state like Florida.
I can imagine healthcare benefits for older folks being cut back a lot.
Enquiring minds value your estimates. When does SS go to states?
My guess is doing so tears apart the US, nothing financial to hold the different generations together, even the illusion of the younger getting something goes away. When that happens the US as a country dissolves and looking at the how the world works, it most likely separates by tribe. Implication: too many tribes in a local, sort of a tough neighborhood.
The universe has a great deal of time and work into biology, my bet is biology. Tough call if AI becomes sentient. Biology is self-limiting due the max rate of energy usage on Spaceship earth without overheating; I think we are there or past now.
Sentience, that is interesting. If the universe is sentient, how does one visualize that? If the universe has a temper tantrum is that a super nova? Greek mythology on steroids.
You have been approximately right too many times to ignore, and approximately correct beats the heck out of being wrong.
Again, the mundane: estimate on date SS goes back to states, or in essence tribes. Actionable ideas are always appreciated.
Dennis L.
Wasn’t Starship supposed to solve all of these problems?
it was
HKs space elevator got stuck between clouds
Nom, kul,
It is a transition; the trick is to survive the transition. I have never said it would be smooth, my comment is “It will be bumpy.”
Some years back only a few tens of thousands of breeding pairs survived some bottleneck according to the current story.
There are times in business when failure seems certain. Fellow named Rothschild said, “Buy when there is blood in the streets” or something similar. Business and economics are biology, nowhere in the universe without biology is there economics. You cannot afford negative thoughts, nor can you be overconfident. When you survive, wow! Advice chose your battles carefully.
My favorite movie is “High Noon.” Grant does what has to be done, rides off with Grace although I would have chosen Helen. If you are Grant, you get your choice of women. Frank Miller stayed in town.
The men during the bottle neck were Grants, they got the women and here we are, that is biology, and biology is the apex of the universe. The universe likes biology moving forward, so let it be written, so let it be done.
Dennis L.
dennis
you miss—or ignore—the vital point
those 10000 people had a world full of every kind of resource available—animal, vegetable and mineral.
there are now 8bn people, with those same resources scarce, in rapid depletion or practically non existent.
mixing up movie one liners won’t alter the facts of resources—or lack of them.
@Dennis
Hope it is not yet the full plan but only a draft. Wouldn’t give a penny for this to work!
I really don’t know. I have been amazed that the whole system has stayed together so long.
Today’s seniors received a lot of gifts:
–University education that was inexpensive back in the 1950s and 1960s. Fellowships and Assistanceships were often available to grad students, allowing them to pay for living expenses, besides the cost of education.
–Jobs that paid well, allowing many of them to buy homes or farms.
–Appreciation on homes and farms that gave equity that could be tapped with loans to buy fancy cars and swimming pools.
–A long period of very low interest rates that made home and farm ownership easy and cheap.
–Rising stock market, allowing those who dabbled in the stock market to make money.
–Many jobs in the 1970s and 1980s cams with promised pensions, besides Social Security. These are paying out now.
–Annuities that were purchased in 2007 or earlier from life insurance companies often pay out well because interest rate assumptions and stock market appreciation assumptions were quite high.
As a result, quite a few of today’s seniors seem to be doing quite well financially. But young people have no way of doing anywhere nearly as well. They often paid for their own exorbitantly priced university education, and need to pay back this amount, with interest. Home prices are out of reach.
It seems like something has to break soon with this broken system. If the total amount of goods and services available goes down, something has to be cut out. All of these pension plans would seem to be easy to get rid of (if they didn’t belong to voters).
It would be easy to imagine that someone comes up with the idea of sending the programs to the states. You are right though– doing so would likely break the system. It seems like this break would come fairly soon, but I don’t know when.
I think that in the days before pensions, multiple generations lived together, and the older ones helped care for the children and perhaps did other work. There is in some sense an “intergenerational debt” that has been pushed off to government programs that would be brought back to families, to the extent these still exist. In other words, parents raised children when they were young. The children have some obligation to help care for the elderly, if there aren’t way too many elderly, relative to the number of children.
I would expect that at least some of this would come back again.
“I think that in the days before pensions, multiple generations lived together, and the older ones helped care for the children and perhaps did other work.”
You are talking about my childhood, paternal grandfather killed on railroad, depression time, grandma was my babysitter, took me to the train station every night, probably was thinking of her husband. Between depression and WWII with vacationing on Pacific islands dad fixed it up. Granddad bought the house from some whores; it was where they worked. Can’t make this stuff up.
Dennis L.
in some poor countries mainly Asian and African, the young women are pumping out 4 to 5 children on average.
it’s biology, always the biology, the Universe has invested billions of years for that 4 to 5 child biological process.
the men in those countries must be lots of film star hunk types.
Gail, it stayed longer than expected because they changed the rules, they hide the data or statistics. They lied by “not reporting”, selective reporting or outright dishonest reporting. Lastly the people have dumbed down so much that they never have critical thinking
Being able to take down interest rates between 1981 and 2022 made a big difference. The high level they were at in 1980-1981 made a difference, as well. This high level of interest rates at the beginning of this period was only possible because of the rapid growth in oil supply in the period between WWII and 1970.
Jeff,
Per Copilot
SS is $1.07T/year cash out,
Medicare is $.750T/year cash out
Interest on debt $.476T cash out
Revenue $4.5T
Net about $2.3T 2022.
So if interest increases by 2x/year give or take, that gives $2T free cash flow.
In 2023 not a problem, 2024, is the damn doubling game of grains of rice on a chess board.
Rough estimates, probably as close as most estimates.
Dennis L.
Interest on Fed Gov debt has already exceeded $1T and is heading fast to $1.5T because of the increase in interest rates on treasuries. $7.6T in US debt has to be refinanced/rolled over this year, at higher rates.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-07/us-debt-bill-rockets-past-a-cool-1-trillion-a-year
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-6-trillion-us-government-040643412.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAALYXCUnoCz2rtMBqAb9nzgh-g2LXe21YJQQrzyG_KylhwVCJ42JQs5fC9FNeBwdOEDo96GKkPW6tg21h8_sN4osehvc-tJMjufn3foYOQofTPHofnQhJEf9bMj2nRHCT4xEt5H3of71vDQOOJiqpeFK-1hqEPEROQ5voiH5Z-kIm
The UKR ‘terrorist’ attacks on Russian civilians and infrastructure inside Russia gives Russia the recongised ‘right’ to cross the Dnieper and to go after the UKR ‘terrorist state’ and the state officials who are involved. The Crocus City Hall attack is liable to be a disaster for UKR.
The USA has pushed that sort of narrative for decades to ‘justify’ its own military interventions like with Bin Laden. It is an ‘act of war’ to not hand over the ‘terrorists’.
States tend to use ‘morality’ and the ‘rules of the game’ to suit themselves but the ‘principles’ can backfire once they have gained international acceptance and the international agreements are in place to match the demands. The NATO backers of UKR are also implicated.
Russia has now demanded the hand over of Vasyl Malyuk, the head of the UKR Securty SUB who has been publicly blabbing over the last week about all the actions that UKR has taken in Russia. He is perhaps trying to implicate everyone else so that he is not singled out by Russia.
I always suspected that the SMO in UKR would be followed by ‘war crimes trials’ akin to ‘Nuremburg’. It would be a very public and international ‘moral defeat’ of NATO. Time will tell what happens on that one. In the meantime Russia now has the legal pretext for ‘declarations of war’.
Russia issues ultimatum to Ukraine
Thanks for your write-up of what Alex and Alexander are saying about Russia’s demand for extraction to Russia of one person behind the Crocus City Hall attack.
Virologist Warns ‘Imminent’ New COVID Crisis Among VACCINATED Will Cause ‘Chaos’ & ‘Collapse’ Society
“It is very very clear that when this starts, our hospitals will collapse. And that means the chaos in all kinds of layers of society — financial, economic, social, you name it — will be complete.” says Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche.”
https://www.infowars.com/posts/virologist-warns-imminent-new-covid-crisis-among-vaccinated-will-cause-chaos-collapse-society/
This is why we NEED more immigrants. Even if that’s not what people WANT. (including myself)
So if it is correct, 2024, am I scanning this correctly?
A highly vaccinated population is Israel; the irony if Bossche is correct is incredible.
Not going to worry about that one, extreme events are very rare and impossible to plan for as infinite losses always trump finite gains. Just no way to bet and make a buck.
Dennis L.
According to the link:
“On the KunstlerCast podcast on Friday, Bossche said, “What I am predicting is a massive, massive tsunami” of illness and death among highly-vaccinated populations with compromised immune systems.”
We are dealing with a group of highly vaccinated people with compromised immune systems. This is a small subset of the population. I would guess that the health care system would be happy to do without them because this group vastly over-uses the system.
It is a small enough group that I would guess that excessive deaths in this population still wouldn’t set off alarm bells in the general population. At this late date, few would think about the vaccine as being the culprit.
Someone below answered the Q how Israel will exterminate all Palestinians, forgot to include starvation in the list.
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1775167810739560454
Two few resources per capita predicament in Israel (including fresh water) can be fixed in two different ways:
1. Add more resources.
2. Decrease the number of people.
Israel seems to have chosen reducing the number of people in Gaza. This sort of helps the problem of not enough resources for the combined Israel and Palestine.
Im sure it was a very difficult solution for them to have come up with.
They have also chosen to make people understand that it is even better not to come to feed them if one wants to stay alive…
“UAE pauses aid to Gaza by sea after Israeli strike kills aid workers”
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-pauses-aid-gaza-by-sea-after-israeli-strike-kills-aid-workers-2024-04-02/
The measures which should have been taken to ensure reaching Type I Civilization include (but not exclusive to)
1 Cease consumption by 98% of all persons now walking around. Sorry, your good days are over.
By corollary, end all welfare methods, which will quickly end the unproductive peoples who might riot but will be quickly put down by vigilantes who will be very happy to remove these freeloaders from society.
2. Introduce a totalitarian, all-seeing, all-control society. No slack whatsoever. Everything seen and monitored, to the tinest degree.
3. No personal freedom. Sorry, humankind was kind of let free for a century but this is what we got, an unbriddled consumption by those who perhaps did NOT deserve that.
4. At least half of all resources to be spent on research relevant for expanding civilization. No resource to waste on research to save people from diseases which affect maybe one in 200,000. It is simply not worth it.
That’s the start, not the end. Without such measures, none of the attempts to reach the next level of civ will succeed.
You are such a vile little child, with your super villain fantasies of ultimate control.
You are also fairly stupid, exactly how are you going to implement such a bat shit crazy program? Actual human beings are rather cussed in their obstinance, and could quite easily thwart your plans by destroying the fragile economic system that makes your desired oppression possible.
Whether or not this is true, the World Economic Forum leaders seem to think in something like this bizarre way. They expect that a relative handful of leaders will own everything, and everyone else will get along with whatever small amount that they choose to allocate to the low level folks.
Even the plans by governments to have a central digital currency system for each country seem to be developed with this way of thinking. A few people in charge will have access to all of the resources available. The rest will get along with what tiny amount is allocated to them.
Electricity and computer control are needed for these plans. I am doubtful that they can work, very well, for very long, because of these issues.
Yes Gail! There are thousands of reasons – logistical, physical, economic and social, why these plans – if they exist – cannot possibly succeed.
Whenever I look at the words of those such as Gates, Schwab or Harari, then I am struck by how mechanical, how banal and how lacking in imagination these individuals are.
If they represent any civilization, then a Type 43 at best.
I mean the counterfactual is, we go back to Cuba levels of standard of living and start hunting each other for food. It’s either controlled chaos or free-for-all anarchy.
The military aged men seem to be there to implement biosecurity measures and to break up states into localized sectors/zones with a civil war.
Considering that the world was much closer to that condition in 1913 than in 2013, it is doable
No it wasn’t you idiot.
When some group of humans get wealthy and powerful they don’t get the negative feedback necessary to deal with the real world.
‘
They All fall victim to their individual or collective delusions and that causes their downfall.
The Greek playwrights tried to warn us
Hubris creates its own Nemesis that destroys it.
Maybe that explains the strange actions of today’s rich and powerful. “All fall victim to their individual or collective delusions and that causes their downfall.”
@dobbs
The concept of hubris was introduced by Sophocles in his Oedipus Rex , trilogy.
At that time Sophocles was supported by some dude named Cimon, but that guy lost power, and Pericles , Cimon’s chief rival, took power. Although Pericles didn’t treat Sophocles too badly, Sophocles’ dreams to gain a higher position in Athens was thwarted once for all since he aimed to parlay his playwright career to a political one.
However, people didn’t like such plays , and Oedipus the Rex lost to an unknown play, written by Philocles, a nephew of Aeschylus.
Only after Athens lost to Sparta, an event Sophocles got to see since he lived for more than 90 years, the concept of hubris became hot in the Greek World.
But through Alexander the Greeks got to destroy the Persians, and only the arrival of Christianity ended the Hellenic philosophy.
Today’s plebs are all NPCs, not relevant for the Narrative. The elites do not fear them at all.
However they do fear some military powers who can stop the fun, the Barbarians. If they can be stopped, there is nothing impeding them before going to the next level of Civ.
Look, look over there at the WEF.
Don’t look over here at the plutocrats and the MIC, there us nothing to see!
In John M Greer’s recent blog: https://www.ecosophia.net/the-laughter-of-wolves/
he calls Yuval Harari ‘a pampered darling’. I expect stronger expletives are available.
Is there really any substantial difference between China’s ‘Great Leap Forward’ c. 1960 and Klaus Schwab’s ‘Great Reset’ 2020? In the course of the GLF, 6% of the population starved to death.
The difference is the GLF was just to further Mao’s dictatorship while GR is to build the foundation for a future advancement of civ
Look, look over there at the WEF?
Don’t look over here at the plutocrats and the MIC, there us nothing to see!
Yes Gail, I agree with what you say.
I also think that this way of thinking (WEF and gov.) basically implies a Communist vision of Society, while Liberal and Freedom ideals are exactly the opposite.
It is exactly the planned Society against the Liberal one.
Mandatory vaccines, digital identity, digital money, allocated resources to each individual decided from above, are exactly the result of the Communist society.
In that way US and China would become equals and they would fight one another not because different in their essences, but just because they would become equal and wanted the same piece of earth.
It would be the end of every ideal and of every dream.
Just obey.
Actually we are pretty close to that and we were very close to having such system back in 1913
“Without such measures, none of the attempts to reach the next level of civ will succeed.”
Thank God! **** the next level of civ.
Reaching the next level of civ means those who can’t follow will be left behind
Which is why Russia launched this rebellion against Civilization since it has no seats on there.
“Reaching the next level of civ means those who can’t follow will be left behind”
Europe first, then the rest of the west?
“Which is why Russia launched this rebellion against Civilization since it has no seats on there”
Russia is the future of civilization. All the resources and the best minds in rocket science, military technology and computing, places them on the top step. The true winners in your game of winners and losers.
I don’t think any species is suppose to survive for long on this prison planet , let alone escape it. I’m pretty sure we are the only species that have taken the time to categorized theoretical civilization types, ones that will never be accomplished. Most species are just trying to make it through the day. Silly humans.
Yes, humans are unique, sentient beings.
Dennis L.
So are squirrels, they’re just misunderstood.
definition of Type 1 civilisation:
…….Able to obtain and consume all energy available on the planet……
a concept so fatuous, I am amazed it enters into any level of discussion…..but it goes on, nevertheless. (and on)
The people on this planet, are concerned only with survival. and the levels of that survival.
To that end, we seek profit.
You buy a house, you expect to sell it for more than you paid for it–xx years ago. you use a car to earn wages–and so on.
Humankind has deluded itself, that this planet has been rendered into a cash asset.
to do that we have consumed as much energy as we could get hold of, as fast as possible.
but the planet will not be turned into cash—no matter how we convince ourselves otherwise.
there is no ”cabal of elders” trying to control us.
only those trying to make as much money as possible, as fast as possible.
We all play Bezos’ game of pass the parcel. If we didn’t he would be a pauper like the rest of us.
that, in itself, is where our destruction lies. we must all go faster and faster…towards some unknown end.—it is certainly not type 1 civ—daft idea.
politics is a thing of denial—that our future destruction is certain, brought about by greed—pure and simple.
all our welfare has derived from cheap surplus energy.—when energy is switched off—our civilisation will disappear with it.
and i have no doubt kulm, that when you have that ”rare disease”—you will be first in line for treatment if it is available.
Norm, why is it so hard to see our current way of living is a flash in the pan , pimple as Art Berman artfully termed it, is coming to an end and so with it our modern conveniences cushy consumerism?
No one that I personally talk with faces that fact and usually shrugs, “They will come up with something”.
The blind faith in so called “progress”.
Anytime I mention we should minimize instead of maximize is treated with scorn. More, more, is the cry of a mistaken soul.
William Blake
If Civ was allowed to advance without impediment in 1914 we would have gotten there with no trouble, although that would have not been a good news for maybe 98-99% of the world’s pop living back then.
Thanks to the actions of a few national heroes, , sorry robotic idiots (the very word of robot would never have come forth to the world since Czech would NOT have been used as a language cultured people would have dealt with without Chucky) the fruits of civilization, for the first time in the history of humankind, was widely spread.
That lead to overconsumption by those who were not exactly relevant for civilization, eating all resources before the advances could be made, and we are now at the do-or-die situation.
William Blake was never that popular during his lifetime, was rediscovered in late 19th century by some idle people who was into counterculture, but his popularity did not really arise till 1960s after Britain lost its empire.
Humanity, or, to be more accurate, the better part of it, has one final shot, make it or break it attempt to push toward to the next level of civ. Dennis L, despite of all the evidence against it, thinks humanity can make it. I am negative, since the measures I have spoken about above have not been made and people not relevant for civilization are still using up huge amounts of resources as of this moment.
i’ll keep trying—masochism is obviously incurable.
you cannot have civilisation without an accumulation of people.
Thats why you have cities.
cities grow on the accumulated energy resource of the population of the country.
Need more explanations?—ask yourself why Greenland doesnt have cities—insufficient resources to counteract the prevailing climate.
1914…100+ years ago was a single breath of history—we had barely learned to fly.
amuse me some more by explaining how some kind of advanced civilisation could have developed in just a century—if it had been ”allowed to’—that implies someone actually prevented it.
Or was it the ”wrong people” being allowed to make use of it.
Tell me kulm—just who gets to receive the benefits of your kind of civilisation
And more importantly—who gets to decide?—someone has to.
You are worthy–I am not???
So, William Blake may have been ahead of his time, you say? Does that diminish the message?
Yes. He was not relevant during his time, only gaining relevancy in a shrinking world
ah yes—”they” are always coming up with something
love that idea
i miss HKs space elevator though
Anytime I mention we should minimize instead of maximize is treated with scorn
There is no should or should not. It doesn’t matter.
According to the recorded spiritual writing from those espoused it; It does matter..but who am I to judge, Withnail?
Adrian from Port Hedland is doing a wonderful job counteracting the narrative
By definition a Type I civ requires all of the earth’s resources so a totalitarian regime, controlling everything on earth, is needed.
I lived long enough and saw enough. I am not going to harm myself but if Destiny tells me that my times is up, I won’t resist.
but a totalitarian regime doesn’t control everything
simple minded leaders just think they do
and even dafter proles believe it
it lasts a little while—then it implodes….without exception
“We are living through an energy revolution that will be every bit as life altering as the fossil-fuel revolution 150 years ago.
This is driven primarily by plummeting prices of renewable energy: Solar energy has declined 90 percent in the past decade, while wind has declined 70 percent. This means wind and solar are now our cheapest energy sources.”?
https://web.archive.org/web/20220326032138/https://www.expressnews.com/opinion/commentary/article/Commentary-Believe-it-you-are-living-through-an-17029592.php
However?
‘Around 1975, 75 pct. of the global energy use was supplied by fossil fuels. What is this percentage nowadays? Surprise, surprise, it is rising:
“Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance in 2022, Report Says, Reuters, June 26, 2023
Global energy demand rose 1% last year and record renewables growth did nothing to shift the dominance of fossil fuels, which still accounted for 82% of supply, the industry’s Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Monday.’ ?
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/03/unforced-variations-march-2024/comment-page-2/#comments
Solar can be had for ~22 cents per watt now. It’s unclear whether it’s sustainable … maybe some companies are going out of business and/or need to clear inventory. Still, that’s $1100 for 5kw. Amazing.
However?
‘Around 1975, 75 pct. of the global energy use was supplied by fossil fuels. What is this percentage nowadays? Surprise, surprise, it is rising:
“Renewables Growth Did Not Dent Fossil Fuel Dominance in 2022, Report Says, Reuters, June 26, 2023
Global energy demand rose 1% last year and record renewables growth did nothing to shift the dominance of fossil fuels, which still accounted for 82% of supply, the industry’s Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Monday.’
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/03/unforced-variations-march-2024/comment-page-2/#comments
I know, but some of us have an electric bill, and this is good news as long as we’re un-collapsed.
What is included in the $.22? Just looked,, Alibaba, solar panels seem to be about $.14/watt, range $.1-.18/watt. The cost is in the wiring and supports plus labor to install and land.
I have touched on aging more than once, no matter what, I am slowing.
Cheery note: This period coming will be one of transition. Some things are on their way to becoming worthless, some things priceless. Choose wisely.
Note: believe in biology, children are one of the things which are priceless. If one has six children, three per person(it takes two at this point), those three can outwork the one and learn much more than the original. This is self replication, universe figured that one out, worked very hard to build our spaceship earth; not a good idea to mess with it.
Dennis L.
Inverters are mostly imported from China. They wear out quickly. Without an inverter, the use of solar panels is quite limited.
More like an energy devolution, losing what we had
Yes, we need enough they to keep the tap flowing clean water like in Perth..
Reliance on desalinated seawater grows
A large part of that planning in WA has gone into desalinated seawater — which is water from the Indian Ocean with salt and impurities removed.
According to Water Corporation’s website, Perth has on average relied on desalinated seawater for around half of its drinking water supply over the past five years.
There are currently two desalination plants in Perth and a third facility, costing the government $2.8 billion, is scheduled to come online in Alkimos around 2030.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-04-01/impact-of-perth-dry-spell-on-wa-water-supply-explained/103646216
There is a need to add back in desirable minerals, in the right quantities. This isn’t necessarily done. Israel has had a problem with this issue in its desalinated water. My guess is that Perth hasn’t figured this out either.
Perth Paul, aka Fast Eddie, will fill them in on that one
ALL energy sources we use are, at scale, derivatives of crude oil. As goes oil, so goes our civilization.
They are cheapest, only if a person measures their cost very, very narrowly. With all costs included, they are expensive. Also, their full cost needs to be compared to the full cost of coal or nuclear or natural gas.
The approach of subsidizing wind and solar and allowing them to go first tends to drive out other types of production because of the distortion in wholesale electricity prices they produce. They tend to produce negative wholesale prices for significant periods of time. They also reduce periods of very high prices that are needed to provide enough revenue for the system.
With this problem, nuclear tends to go first, because it cannot ramp up and down (unless it has been specially designed for this purpose–I understand that there are some nuclear plants in France with ramping capability). Coal can ramp up and down, but slowly, so it tends to be second to fail in profitability. Third to go are the type of efficient natural gas plants that use steam driven turbines. Inefficient natural gas “peaking plants” are not as much affected.
Local governments need to subsidize nearly all methods of production, if they want to keep them.
This is a link to a chart I made recently showing US electricity per capita, with and without Wind and Solar.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/US-Electricity-Generation-Per-Capita-wiith-wind-and-solar-also.png
This chart goes through 2023, because it is based on US EIA data. I could probably do the same thing for European electricity per capita, up through 2022, using Energy Institute data.
Electrification in the Permian basin . God save the grid .
https://www.oilystuff.com/forumstuff/forum-stuff/god-help-us?origin=notification
Three things people don’t realize:
1. Our grid capacity is already quite tight.
2. Wind and solar don’t add much, certainly not in a reliable way.
3. The Permian doesn’t provide much diesel (middle distillates), which is the type of oil that we really need.
Good points.
#2 debatable if one ignores self replication. I think solar/wind can be used locally and profitably or at least at less loss than grid tie. Problem is getting a big windmill to make baby windmill. The goal is to make it through the transition which implies something is being transitioned to.
For a solution to #2, move it all to space, guess is it will work very well. Hell of a project.
Dennis L.
Baby wind turbines don’t work. Power increases with size of the blade to the fourth power, I understand. You lose too much with small size. If you try to mount baby wind turbines on the tops of homes, the devices shake the homes too much. They are not stable enough.
And the inverters that little wind turbines use need electricity from outside, IIRC. They need a more continuous supply than what comes from the wind turbine.
in uk–we have a multi £bn chain of DIY stores
presumably run by people who know what they are doing
a few years ago, they started selling rooftop mini turbines–about 6ft diameter
it was obvious they woould destroy what they were mounted on
they vanished from the stores in a few weeks
“presumably run by people who know what they are doing”
I think I hear the sound of hysterical laughter.
a windmill in space
i must admit dennis—its an idea that hadn’t occurred to me
i bet even HK never thought of that
Move all the windmills to space, where they can capture the full force of the solar wind.
That’s what I call thinking!
Anne put up a comment as below . A simple question ? Instead of flaring the NG ( byproduct) install gas generators and use this as a fuel .Her response is
” I’ve read that the backlog for gas generators is about like the one for electric transformers – over a year. Have to think that the bitcoin mining crowd has got them all booked up. The “software engineers” seem confused about what makes their business go. Those programs burn up electrons and make a ton of money for data center operators but they can’t make the door open in your house without molecules. And hardware. We can’t build everything, everywhere, all at once and everyone’s trying to fit through a tiny door to chase government money to do it. Giant fans to suck up CO2, or the electricity to run the wells? The engineers used to call those “constraints” and somebody had to referee to say who got the money that year. “We’re” so used to free money that we seem to think everything else can be printed too.
The tech crowd’s now having to come around to liking nukes b/c they’ve painted themselves into a corner by opposing coal and nat gas for power gen, and wind and solar won’t run those data centers 24/7. Even if Bill Gates’ new reactor design gets approved and starts construction next year it’ll be quite awhile before it or any other new reactor goes into service. Meantime what’s going to power up all those new computer chips? We need them to go through the junk drawer that is the modern internet to yield new “insights” into how to write em . ”
Too add by George Florinescu ” nuclear is energy intensive getting that fuel costs and Russia will probably ban its exports at the worst time. ”
I hadn’t realized that there was a shortage of gas generators. I know that the bitcoin generation uses a lot of “stranded” natural gas. But if there is really a paying use for the natural gas, not just the generation of these strange notes, it seems like the use that goes into making goods and services should have priority. I guess the system is, first come, first served. We run out of devices made in China (or wherever), we have to stop expanding in that particular direction.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-mass-deportations-muslim-migrants-surge-after-moscow-terror-attack
I would be interested in drb’s thoughts on this.
>> There have been widespread reports of mass deportations of Muslim migrants from Russia in the wake of the March 22 terror attack on the Crocus City Hall venue in a Moscow suburb which killed at least 140 people and left hundreds more wounded and injured.
>> Bailiffs reportedly refer to St. Petersburg’s mass deportations as “Operation Anti-Migrant,” with raids targeting local hostels and apartments. Similar raids were reported in Moscow and other Russian cities.
It wouldn’t surprise me. Anti-muzhlim rhetoric is ramping up in the West too, and China is busily re-educating its Uyghurs in specially built camps. This new hollowcoast will be for the muzhlims.
My impression is that the move is not directly connected with Religion, but with origin.
If we think that the attack is related to Religion, in my view, we have not understood what happened
superbusy now, will reply tonight. I learn it from you, I guess this is only unregistered.
Sorry guys. A cow that was quite lame could not give birth, we slaughtered her, the guy who was supposed to buy the meat did not show up, I had to run around looking for a freezer. Texts from friends in Moscow indicate it is indeed only illegals, only Moscow and Peter, surely they must have some strike against them because there is 1M illegals.
Sorry, sounds like a real PITA. As for so many illegals, it doesn’t seem to Russia’s benefit, but what do I know.
And I add, they will never mass deport the central asians, Moscow would collapse the next day.
So where are we now with the Gaza conflict, several months after it began?
From Wikipedia:
“On October 7, 2023, Palestinian militants attacked Israel, killing 1,200 people (mostly civilians). Israel responded by bombing the Gaza Strip and launching an invasion that has killed more than 29,000 Gazans as of February 2024.”
Now in the Gaza strip, famine is kicking in. Lawlessness is rife. It is exactly the sort of situation that Fast Eddy used to fantasize about: the ripping off of faces.
Before the conflict started, the Gaza strip was reckoned to have a population of around 2,375,000. An estimated 43.5% of the population is 14 years old or younger. This compares to a population of around 2,950,000 in the West Bank.
Israel’s population is an estimated 9,656,000. In 2022 the government recorded 73.6% of the population as J, eews, 21.1% as Arabs, and 5.3% as “Others” (non-Arab Christians and people who have no religion listed).
When do you think the conflict will stop? What are Izrael’s aims for the territory? Around 29,000 Gazans have died out of around 2,375,000. Clearly Izrael can’t kill and / or starve them all, even if it wanted to. And after it’s all over, around a fifth of the population of Izrail is Arab, and presumably many Arabs and Muzhlimbs will be greatly embittered after what has gone on. How safe will the majority Izraelis feel in their own country? How will their future look?
As for Hamas, do you imagine that they still think that their attack was a good idea? Though probably the Izraili regime is now about as popular worldwide as the South African apartheid regime was in the 1970s and 1980s.
Any thoughts?
They can and will exterminate all Palestinians.
And how will they do that? There are around 5 million Palestinians in total, compared to around 7.2 million of the majority sect in Israel.
History repeating itself…it’s been done before
Fire storm like Dresden, nerve gas, nuclear weapon, carpet bombing and napalm. They just need to put their back into it.
“nuclear weapon”
I don’t think so, given the proximity of Gaza to Israel.
As for Ed’s suggestions, Israel would need to be careful if it wishes to remain in good favour with those countries who remain well disposed to it.
During the cover of a greater conflict.
Hmm. Just what are you suggesting? Let’s hope that a greater conflict does not flare up.
Still no interview of two pilots from the Dali? Nor the Captain there is no shortage of translators.
A video is linked from the MSN website to a ‘Redacted’ video saying it was a cyberattack that steered the ship. So, it seems that relatively mainstream media and therefore public consciousness may shift. Also, gold is making new highs lately. Maybe the end of the road for can kicking (USD dominance and debt) has finally come?
HT has got some new music.
Russia is making rapid strategic gains and everyone is advising UKR to seek negotiations now before they lose a lot more territory. Russia is liable to take it anyway but it could at least save lives.
NATO admitted months ago that it has run out of stuff to send to UKR and UKR has now lost much of its missile defence, it is still massively outgunned on the field and Russia has gained some control of the air. There is only way that is going to end.
Russia Takes Control Over Ukraine’s Important Strongholds Near Chasov Yar | Donetsk Battle
The month of April started for the Ukrainian Army with devastating battle blows. Russia took control of several Ukrainian strategic strongholds near Chasov Yar. Ukraine was using these strongholds near Chasov Yar in Donetsk to attack Russia. However, after a fierce battle, Russia has taken over these advantageous positions. Not just in Donetsk; the Russian Army also hammered Ukrainian troops in Zaporizhzhia. Russian troops destroyed a bridge in the Kyiv-held town of Gulyaipole in Zaporizhzhia. The bridge was used by the Ukrainian Army for its main military supplies.
My impression is that US has gave green light for a war with Iran, in order to change subject..
Please see: “Israeli strike on Iranian Consulate in Damascus”
(From Al Jazeera. I don’t know why but I cannot make copy and paste by my tablet at the moment)
Here we are: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/1/several-killed-in-israeli-strike-on-iranian-consulate-in-damascus-reports
On twitter
https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1774819672623296702?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1774819672623296702%7Ctwgr%5Ea8c308f403aa74fcc80fe0679bbf125304c11594%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fenglish.almayadeen.net%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Firgc-mourns-7-advisors-martyred-in-israeli-aggression-on-dam
Does look like considerable damage was done!
They have not even finished pacifying tiny Gaza. Going to Iran would be very stupid
The idea of course is to start a war that the US is forced (due to political cooption) to finish.
Or else Israel has gone rogue, knowing that if it can get Iran to retaliate, it will be able to suck in a still reluctant US, despite the US’s glaring inability to sustain any kind of conventional war against Iran. Or maybe Israel is trying to get the US to commit to it before it gets caught up with China, leaving Israel no hope of getting arms from the US.
If Israel and or USA get into a direct war with Iran, if Iran was smart, it should try and bomb every Arab oil field it can on the other side of the Persian Gulf. Iran cannot beat Israel or the United States directly, it needs to try and starve the world of oil, in order to bring them to the peace table. The flow of oil out of the mideast is the whole reason the United States cares about that region.
You mean they’ll drop a few bombs on Syria and call it a war with Iran? We csn’t afford an actual war with actual Iran.
And who could blame Russia after all the broken promises and treachery by the US, Nuland, and NATO? As I posted months ago, under the circumstances, I would expect any country interested in its own self preservation to guarantee itself a wide buffer zone against the likes of the US and UK and their proxies. Russia isn’t establishing military bases on the Canadian and Mexican border, the US is on every country bordering Russia on its western border. The hypocrisy and treachery!!
If I were Putin, I would include Odessa, the entire coast of southern Ukraine, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia and up to and possible including the entire east bank of the Dnieper River and even Kyiv. It will take generations for the west to undue their bad faith, just as it appears it has taken the Poles generations and they still hate the Russians for what they did in WWII.
Just calling it as I see it.
You make a good point!
Not to forget about Saddam Hussein and his taking over Kuwait way way back. Seems to me during his war with Iran and he piled a large I.OUs to Western banks.
During that time of conflict Kuwait stole Iraqi oil by what is know as slant drilling…I’m drinking your milkshake…
There was a conference to settle the matter and Kuwait was found to have done it and owed monies to Iraq.
When the time came to pay, Kuwait refused to pay and teased Saddam by saying the Americans would protect them if he tried anything.
Well now, if Mexico did the same…what do you think the US military would do?
A source of deflation, we(US) having trouble selling high end educations.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5T-BsGIK0HE
This is covering Chinese students studying in America and includes concern for student safety.
At U Miami $59m deficit secondary to fewer Chinese students. Also entering in are fewer births in China. Damn demographics as always.
The U Miami business school has seen a decline of $140K/student tuition or $22M lost revenue. So maybe the administrators can learn to code? That’s what the elites told the working man to do some years back when their jobs went to China.
Chinese universities are supposedly also attracting students from all over the world, Chinese are reported to be offering free tuition – build better relations?
Cisco has certification by exam, don’t think any class is required. Sit down at a test center, turn on, tune in, and turn off. When the screen goes blank it is over, instant grade.
Sorry for the form, put this together as I listened to the podcast.
Dennis L.
Also, companies seem to be scaling back their requests for university degrees. Prove you know the stuff; having a degree is no longer considered as important. The lack of a degree requirement, and the difficulty of paying back the high debt, discourage young people from taking time off for a university degree.
https://www.highereddive.com/news/nearly-half-of-companies-plan-to-eliminate-bachelors-degree-requirements/702277/
Nearly half of companies say they plan to eliminate bachelor’s degree requirements in 2024
Many employers are dropping degree requirements to create a more diverse workforce and increase job candidate numbers, survey results show.
Are actuary levels still exam only? Seems to me at one time a degree was not required, probably a challenging exam.
Dennis L.
There is more than one actuarial organization, so I can’t speak for all of them. But, pretty much, they are exams only.
I know one fellow I worked with was only a high school graduate. He had gotten a job as a “clerk,” in the days before computers were much available. He took a few evening classes to get what calculus courses he needed. Perhaps an economics course too, I don’t know. He was good enough that he got himself moved over to being an actuarial trainee.
In recent past years, insurance companies seemed to be looking for people with good college scores, besides having passed an exam or two.
When I was hired as an actuarial trainee, I passed an “actuarial aptitude test.” I also had a high enough math score on whatever test was required to get into graduate school, so got credit for Exam 1. And I had a Master’s Degree in math, before when I applied.
I expect 2/3 of US colleges to go the way of dark chocolate in 20 years max. It will probably start as single departments closing.
Only those in top 30 of the US news rankings should remain and everything else should close
Agree
Harvard? You will still need some solid engineers out there to maintain civilization as much as possible.
da vinci was one of the best engineers ever
he still had to walk everywhere, or at best ride a horse
why?—if he was so good?
Norman, I understand you are very senior, but this going off on tangents is tiring. I doubt that Da vinci ever maintained a reinforced concrete bridge. and i doubt that any guy coming out of Harvard does too.
think tangentially–think laterally–to keep up drb.
no matter how good your modern engineer is—if they don’t have an engine, they have the same problem as da vinci.
da vinci had no engine to power his devices.
if you think engineers in the future will have ”some other means” to provide power that ”they” will think up, i suggest you take a long hard look around, and think what it might be.
nothing tangetial about it.
and the Romans used concrete in ways we still cant
If the engineer doesn’t have an engine, he’s out on his ear.
Besides using concrete in ways we can’t, what have the Roman’s ever done for us!?
well
they built a very nice road outside my house.
for which i am truly thankful
The UK ‘Russell Group’ contains about 20 ‘top’ universities. But they’re ‘self-selected’. I don’t trust any university to rate itself. Especially not since 1988. The UK (Tory) government then ended academic tenure and all but nationalised the universities (or corporatised, given their state now 35 years on.)
Before then they were fairly autonomous and self-governing and quite jealous of their academic standards. It was difficult to get a 1st. class degree in 1974 when I graduated and an upper 2nd was considered creditable. 50 years on and a fairly high proportion of degrees are a first or upper 2nd.
Today’s universities want high graduation rates, so they don’t discourage giving high grades, and graduating as many as possible. Ratings of professors are available on line. Professors who give high grades are likely to get high ratings.
In fact, many of these universities are willing to take practically anyone who can find funding (including loans) to pay for their education. These universities have a huge amount of overhead, and the state doesn’t have much in the way of funds available to give them. So the universities really need many, many students to be profitable. DEI becomes the byword of the day.
Chinese students can study in their own universities, and ditto to all these exchange students.
China will always have a trouble attracting foreign students since not too many of them will bother to learn Chinese with a few thousand characters.
This German defence industry bloke actually ‘gets’ it.
It is not a matter of the political posture that Biden/ Trump strike about NATO/ Europe on the public stage to get votes, it is a matter of that USA simply could not fight China and protect Europe at the same time.
The Heritage Foundation in USA made the same point in its annual report on USA military capacity. In fact they admitted that it is doubtful that USA could fight one major war and that it certainly could not fight two.
So if USA/ China goes off then Europe is defenceless – easy as. That is just a fact and it is not about political postures or ‘personal commitments’.
But European leaders are not taking that prospect the least bit seriously because there is nothing that they can do about it anyway in any realistic timespan, if ever, because they simply lack the military-industrial base or the capacity to build one.
Sunak like Biden actually reduced the defence budget in real terms last month.
Europe is basically defenceless and if the scenario that they are all talking about goes off in the Pacific then Europe is an open door.
Whether Russia would want to bother with that anyway is another question. But Europe is defenceless in that scenario and likely anyway.
Sometimes it takes someone with private interest to point out the obvious in public….
https://archive.ph/3RbHk
https://www.ft.com/content/8ca72e24-4f8e-40bf-aa02-e91eb2cbb187
Rheinmetall chief urges Europe to build defence tech champions
…. If Donald Trump became US president, “the pressure will be higher” on Germany, said Papperger, but the race to rebuild the country’s military strength would continue regardless of who ended up in the White House.
“The US focuses more on the Asia-Pacific area than on Europe,” he said. Were the “very risky situation” in the region to spark a full-blown armed conflict, “the US will focus on Asia, and then Europe will be totally alone”.
In recent decades, European leaders had taken it for granted that the US would come to the continent’s rescue in case of a military threat but “that will no longer happen”. Papperger said. The US — where Republican lawmakers have blocked military aid to Ukraine — had sent a “very clear message”, which was “we do no longer pay for you”.
If Trump returns to power that would be to perform the last rights for the US Empire
Maybe Europe can use peace as their plan.
it is a matter of that USA simply could not fight China and protect Europe at the same time.
The US does not protect Europe.
Ireland, Austria and Switzerland don’t need protecting. Switzerland’s policy for ages has been armed neutrality.
Cost = about 0.8% of GDP. As opposed to 2% for NATO membership, whose benefits depend on which idiot is in power in Washington DC.
Good point! Stay out of wars with neutrality, if you are a small state.
sure stay neutral, and still could get attacked by a more powerful military.
is everyone in the world “good” and will respect neutrality?
“America will be left with ‘severe, irreversible scars’ if national debt goes unchecked. Now, a blockbuster report warns the bill is higher than believed, hitting $141tn by 2054″
” … Wharton’s Joao Gomes has been making his concerns about the level of national debt known for some time now, and last week—following an interview with Fortune—he sat in front of the U.S. senate committee on the budget and warned them of a train wreck ahead.
“The vice dean of research at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School previously argued too few high-profile individuals were taking the matter seriously, but as an up-and-coming economist he felt compelled to step away from the pack to sound the alarm.
“‘The coming fiscal crisis will be triggered by a sudden loss of confidence by the general public in the federal government’s finances and on those tasked with managing them,’ Gomes told chairman Sheldon Whitehouse and ranking member Chuck Grassley. ‘The projected path for the U.S. federal debt makes this… inevitable in the not too distant future.'”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/america-will-be-left-with-severe-irreversible-scars-if-national-debt-goes-unchecked-now-a-blockbuster-report-warns-the-bill-is-higher-than-believed-hitting-141tn-by-2054/ar-BB1kSB6V?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=2e12c062651a4fc189d9530ea15f8847&ei=10
As usual, no mention of the underlying physics of energy & resource depletion, etc.
Too bad we can’t print goods and services the way we print government debt.
sound about right, $141T by 2054…
and still some bAU and no Collapse yet in the central Core.
https://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2024/03/fire-then-ice-our-deflationary-future.html
Fire, Then Ice: Our Deflationary Future
“Lest you weep for those whose phantom wealth will be drained away, recall that few win when a reserve currency dies. Labor can start earning the day after the reset, but the capital lost is gone for good.”
That leads to something which will make the Great Depression look like a stock down day gone wrong
Every mortgage in USA goes belly up and then every institution goes belly up and people with no way to repay the mortgage go haywire
While bond prices jump up to the high heavens
All explained in William Rees-Mogg’s The Great Reckoning 30 years ago
https://www.amazon.com/Great-Reckoning-World-Change-Depression/dp/0283061162
The Great Reckoning: How the World Will Change in the Depression of the 1990’s Hardcover – January 24, 1992
by William Rees-Mogg (Author), James Dale Davidson (Author)
There’s no investment tips or higher taxes or migrations away from big cities. It’s consolidation of people so less energy is utilized; high decentralization only works if those people can get energy, and given the loan-and-switch strategies of green agenda that globalists are planning out, no one in rural area will get access to the grid or anything of the sort and incentives will be put for them to go back into the city. There is no siphoning of wealth or sitting on champaign, resources will be forcefully redistributed to keep mouths fed and people will be culled if they don’t have any technological or scientific output to energy production I suppose.
Zerohedge is reporting:
Disinflation Narrative Dies As Manufacturing PMIs Show Prices Soaring Most In 20 Months
But can the US Treasury afford to “sell” new debt rolling over at higher interest rates, adding $500 billion more in interest payments just this year alone?
Is an inflation fueled stock market (and BTC ) Venezuelan style crack up boom possible, or will stocks, bonds, and BTC crash when the “money” they are based on, becomes worthless and is realized as the proverbial mirage? In a more granular analysis, even huge corporate farms will become worthless if the physical supply of energy to run the tractors and make the fertilizer, as well as the credit system to buy these, both collapse? We are burning the candle at both ends: one end from a debt based artificial monetary side, and the other end from a thermodynamically based EROEI supply side, ie., one end a man made construct, the other end based on natural order.
Some new system of valuation will be needed as all the material assets will be naked. I suspect the transition will not be smooth, as it will have to go through many fits and starts, including CBDCs and other gimmicks like confiscation of pensions and 401K’s to be credited to individual accounts – “for the people’s protection” of course and these will be used to purchase Treasuries, which will ultimately fail, before a forced downsizing results in a return to more local commerce and a payment system that reverts back to stodgy, inconvenient barter and from there, back to gold and silver after local markets get re established. But thankfully, I will not be around to see it- I hope. Sometimes, it’s good to be old.
To answer your question in the first sentence – Yes, if the buyer is “price insensitive”. (That buyer would be The Fed). The Gold price is now reflecting this – anticipating another (gi-normous) round of QE.
Sure seems that way. Somewhere need to obtain liquidity and how does that get into the consumer’s hands? In the private sector who is going to loan money to the consumer and even if the debt accrues interest, as the loan increases secondary to interest, where does the lender get the cash to cover their interest expense?
No argument, this is real world for all of us and action is possible. Problem is which way? In land I see prices peaking, as they turn negative and cashflow stops covering even interest, need a buyer of last resort. Chinese? I am concerned we sell our birthright and become renters in our own land.
Dennis L.
“So slower growth and much faster inflation”
That sounds like the stagflation that we had in the 1970s.
Good for a laugh .
https://senecaeffect.substack.com/p/breaking-tesla-declares-bankruptcy/comments
april’s fool of course.
Wait. There’s more.
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/fed-to-offer-every-household-1-million?
April Fool!
Makes me go hmmm .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/tesla-shares-fall-plunge-after-387k-q1-deliveries-marking-first-q1-delivery-decline-2020
Wow! I see that the US stock market is down, in early trading this morning.
NASDAQ is down -1.42%. Russel 2000 is down -1.61%.
There are definitely problems in the EV market.
Time line.
Art Berman has an interview in which he presents a time series with crude and natural gas liquids separated by type. Could we take the simple calories obtained by burning corresponding quantities of each as given by the graph. This is the total energy available; when does that total energy peak?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6J9vmQYoiSg
If I am remembering correctly, the US is now the leading “oil” producer if all types are included, but what about energy? Not net, just the gross calories per unit. Were all equal, there would be no issue and butane would be the same as diesel per barrel.
Then, look at US debt as a function of this caloric output. Might be interesting.
So, kul, back to resource limits or some such. I am very busy, can’t do it but Gail is the expert and in my mind has pretty well identified the problems. Perhaps that has already been done and I missed it. Gail also had had staying power, she was on the Oil Drum, she was at the American ASPO meetings almost from the beginning.
I am totally in agreement it is a finite world, I am totally in agreement it is a world with finite resources, and I am totally in agreement we are at maximum pollution of our spaceship earth.
Three windows seem to have been opened: Starship, AI(this may be a pandora’s box, it seems a bit like a deal with the devil) and now small nuclear reactors with which to power the AI computers. What is unique is all three are run by very wealthy men with enormous talent, these are not government projects. Only AI is a new technology, the other two are engineering.
I don’t like AI, for the first time something other than man may be at the forefront of knowledge and control. Film at eleven.
Dennis L.
Starship is a joke
AI is just repeating whatever is in the database
Small reactors are nothing new
What talents do these rich fks have other than exploiting the loopholes of modern society? Of course you have never answered what is the definition of ‘talented’. By your definition some designer who gets famous is ‘talented’, but in the grand scheme of things he/she won’t even be recorded.
UK North Sea oil and gas drilling has plummeted
(Rendering UK now a significant net importer from a net exporter)
https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1774418253621665828/photo/1
“How green energy makes us vulnerable to cyberattack…
“So-called distributed energy systems provide an increasing number of entry points to the grid. An academic study last November modeled a case in which a remote attacker commandeered public EV chargers to create electric frequency distortions that led to a systemwide blackout in Manhattan.” ?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-green-energy-makes-us-vulnerable-to-cyberattack-electric-vehicle-china-04f803dc
https://climateandeconomy.com/2024/04/01/1st-april-2024-todays-round-up-of-economic-news/
Good news! Ukraine has gone almost completely green.
Josh Stirling: Dissecting Excess Death Data and How Insurance Industry’s Trillions Could Be Deployed to Help the Vaccine-Injured
https://www.theepochtimes.com/epochtv/josh-stirling-dissecting-excess-death-data-and-how-insurance-industrys-trillions-could-be-deployed-to-help-the-vaccine-injured-5006731
I really have doubts about insurance coming to the rescue. The article says:
The statements in the last two quoted paragraphs seem to be contradictory. Not being willing to talk about the safety of vaccines means there is not much that can be done. I understand that the Red Cross is excluding some (recently vaccinated?) blood from donation. The insurance industry would need to surcharge rates for people who get mRNA vaccines, for example. I don’t see that happening any time soon.
7 trill ??? really??
that’s USD20,000 for every man woman and child, improvident or otherwise
to me it could only seem conceivable if it’s some notational derviative pyramid projection
no mountain of money that big could lay about unstolen by oligarchs
Keeping an eye at what is happening in Turkey. It can rapidly become another flash point, being an intersectional trasportation point for maritime, aerial, and fossil fuels.
Interesting! It has had problems with its currency, also.
Whatever Dennis is pushing, it is 50 years too late, and too little.
There are really no more places to invest since everything has been cornered. So they just invest on frivolous projects.
The real impact of this would be more control. However it is too little, too late. For whatever reason which I have trouble understanding he things humanity will make it. I have showed counterexamples, but there is no convincing a true believer.
The time to launch all of these was in the 1970s. However the obsession in Vietnam, a place which was, is and will be never that important as far as civilization is concerned, ruined the chance.
If you follow the money, Gail has it right.
Microsoft is a major purchaser of AI companies and is looking to build a huge data center/AI. Cost(Copilot) is $115B scheduled to launch in 2028. Yes, I know power requirements. Has anyone noticed Gates is or wants to build modular, nuclear power plants? Copilots summary: “In summary, Microsoft and OpenAI’s Stargate project represents a significant leap in AI infrastructure, with implications for both technology and environmental impact. ”
Copilot again: “Bill Gates-founded TerraPower is making significant strides in the field of nuclear power. Here’s what we know about their groundbreaking project:
Location: TerraPower has chosen Kemmerer, Wyoming as the site for its first demonstration nuclear power plant. This frontier-era coal town will host the innovative reactor1.
Natrium Reactor: The demonstration plant will house TerraPower’s Natrium nuclear reactor. Unlike traditional water-cooled reactors, Natrium uses liquid sodium for cooling and features a molten salt-based energy storage system. This design makes it safer, more cost-effective, and efficient. The reactor produces 345 megawatts, with the capability to boost output to 500 megawatts for over five-and-a-half hours when needed”
“Completion Timeline: The project is slated for completion by 2030, transforming into a full-scale commercial plant. It’s expected to generate 1,600 construction jobs and employ 250 full-time workers in Kemmerer. The town itself will benefit from the power generated by the plant.”
Coincidence the timelines for AI and the reactor are similar?
Starship is spending huge amounts of money and is owned by a small group. Next test flight in May, six missions hoped/planned in 2024.
Copilot again : “Potential Impact:
Starship’s ability to carry over 100 metric tons of payload into low-Earth orbit could disrupt the small satellite launch market1.
It may encourage customers to build larger satellites with cheaper parts, affecting business opportunities for small launch providers1.”
So satellites become a commodity business, you all know what I am thinking, put the AI in space, oh you already have heard that one.
These are existential sums. There is less stuff than we think or know; Space and AI are getting all the funds they can use. YOU shows the desire to get in. Those whose are in know the score, they are betting very big. Space and AI means untold riches with no pollution. Yes, some will lose.
Societally this is going to be a hell of a challenge. About a dozen kids were shot in Indianapolis over some disagreement. There literally is nothing for them, they have a totally dysfunctional social structure let along join the mainstream of society. Is “Escape from New York” becoming reality for them?
It is going to be bumpy.
Dennis L.
No different from the First Emperor of China building the Great Wall since he had done everything else
The walls all crumbled away along with his empire within a generation. The current wall dates from around 1600, none of the original walls still exists.
He also built a huge mountain as his tomb. That is so full of mercury that it is inaccessible, the terracota soldiers discovered from one of the outskirts.
Just rich people spending money on stupid things. Nothing to see here.
Bill Gates wants to build nuclear plants. He can not tell an electron from a proton, since one can be stored as another, and there are a lot of incompetents in academia and industry in need of funding. basically he will attract the same western crowd that NEOM has. Nuclear reactors work basically because Fermi took personal responsibility of making the first self-sustaining nuclear pile.
Gates focusing on miniature nuclear reactors and AI is a smoke screen by which he and the globalists will choke off nuclear power from the large traditional plants, the recent reactivation of a previously shut down plant in Michigan notwithstanding.
These miniature modular nuclear reactors will then be used as bait or cattle prods to coerce people into having to locate to designated areas. Control food, energy and population- this is Gate’s comprehensive plan.
AI is a psy-op. We do not live on the USS Enterprise where you can enter desired items on a replicator anymore than I can produce food by typing on this keyboard.
It’s analogous to Stalin’s quip about elections. “What matters is who counts the votes.” With AI, what matters is who programs AI. I think AI is used to make people think that the new system will be impartial, honest, and useful like ChatGPT when in fact AI’s purpose is to make people dumber and more easily controlled.
I hope that Americans will understand soon Bill Gates’ plans, because being him American, he will surely apply those plans inside US itself.
What Bill has in mind is basically just the opposite of US as a Country born and developed on the concept of ‘freedom’.
Angry Farmers Are Reshaping Europe
Farm protests are changing not only Europe’s food system but also its politics, as the far right senses an opportunity
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/31/world/europe/angry-farmers-are-reshaping-europe.html
very detailed and personal article concerning France and German farms
The far right?
You mean people who were considered normal, decent, honest, fair-minded and well balanced until 2019?
Or do you mean these guys?
Electricity for transportation:
Alternative thought: Hybrid auto for the distances and harsh weather conditions, second “car” an electric trike with a basket. Just saw one out my window, going up a mild slope, woman had feet on peddles, older, wondered how she maintained a good speed. Saw the battery pack. Currently 41 degrees F, MN is having a heat wave.
Car insurance is very high, maintenance is very high, if you have to ask what a car costs, you can’t afford one.
Solution: a hybrid of hybrids, one car, one trike. Don’t need a fast charge, makes more room in the garage for more stuff. A win/win as I see it.
I walk, Rochester, affluent, well maintained city. I see more and more of these trikes in garages, on the road and at Hyvee for a grocery getter. We adapt.
Dennis L.
Should be good for the fire extinguisher business if you keep these EVs inside. Also the sale of bicycle locks, and the sale of grinders used to cut through them like with the catalytic converters. Had been debating a regular traditional cargo bicycle vs an EV bike now that I have enough solar charging capability in the event of grid failure to make an EV practical, but the indoor fire and outdoor theft risks are too high.
Good point, hadn’t considered fire risk. Rochester still is a relatively “safe” community, very comfortable place in which to live.
Dennis L.
Fire extinguishers do not put out lithium ion battery fires.
Trust me, I know from working in a Li-ion battery recycling plant.
Cooling the batteries by submerging them in water (or other similar liquid) is the only way to prevent thermal runaway.
Cheers,
-GBV
Thank you.
Dennis L.
Deflation/Inflation.
Don’t know this guy, small subscriber base; this seems consistent with what I am seeing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtSXC6mdchM
This is about wheat prices and China purchases. China is claimed to be purchasing outside of US and without using the US dollar.
Deflation example: When some years back looked at MPPT for solar, about $250-300/unit, one per solar panel. So, being an EE student thought, well, I can make my own, PCB’s from China, maybe even have assembled there. Bummer, current retail price for quantity one, $49.95. No margin, forget that one. Business is a really tough game. My auction guy is concerned, small to medium size metal business are going out of business.
I am concerned about my country, it will pass, but it will be bumpy.
Dennis L.
This sounds like what Dennis has been complaining about. According to the blurb with the video,
China is also having huge financial problems. These cancelled orders may be related to those problems.
The pattern I notice in looking at a longer pattern of US wheat prices is that they tend to go up and down with oil prices.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
Prices of both were very high in 2008, for example. Now that land prices are up, the return on farmland is not good enough.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat
“The pattern I notice in looking at a longer pattern of US wheat prices is that they tend to go up and down with oil prices.”
Thank you, this is why I am here. You do a great deal of useful work for all of us.
Dennis L.
The Amish have purchased land in my area for amounts that will bankrupt them utterly within a decade. They sold even higher value farms out east before moving. They, like many many before them don’t understand that this land was not made for human agriculture……..they will learn now like so many others.
Or they will abandon being Amish….and become something considerably different.
Do they borrow from a bank or from one another?
Dennis L.
I have no insight into their financial matters. To be clear these are not true Amish, they are old order Mennonite. They use horse and buggy but seem to have no problem with 400 horsepower track hoes for smashing forest.
Canada just made 23% carbon tax law. The country is entering a true upheaval that will lead to civil war. We have online harms bills being approved that will put anyone who states anything outside the boundary lines in prison for life…..seriously…..
We are in true collapse and it is visibly obvious.
According to video, China will be buying more wheat from Russia and Argentina, outside the US$. China also buying wheat from Kazakhstan. China stockpiles large reserves of wheat. China can decide when it wants to buy, given its large grain reserves. China’s current crop is a record.
One of US problems is high interest rates new buyers have to pay to pay for farmland, at an inflated price. European and North American farmers are much less productive on a cost basis that those operating elsewhere.
>> I am concerned about my country, it will pass, but it will be bumpy.
‘Eventually we’ll make it through this difficulty’, said said the sheep at the slaughterhouse.
ivan,
Laughing quietly, think of me as an old ram with horns.
But, sometimes one’s best isn’t sufficient.
Dennis L.
I have cited the pilgrim Luka, who gives false hope to the lowlives in Gorky’s Low Depths. By the time Luka’s false hope begins to affect its denizens negatively Luka has jumped the town
Gorky was ridiculing Count Lev Tolstoy, who should have died after writing Anna Karenina, like Dostoevsky. Tolstoy told the peasants to sit down and let God decide everything, and of course Gorky had other ideas.
her last thought was about the fabric of the universe.
This is consistent with what I was lamenting about earlier in this thread re: my getting burned on purchases of solar panels at higher prices panels 2-3 years ago, but am now seeing prices drop as panels get dumped on the market by smaller non- subsidized companies going out of business. This in turn may ultimately lead to a higher price rebound as both competition and subsidies are eliminated, inflation, etc. I had figured costs of manufacturing, sourcing silicon, silver, and shipping would gradually drive the price higher. Not in the short to mid term. Never under estimate the ability of brokers, bankers and politicians to distort the real world- at least in the short term.
So as far as I’m concerned the first question when analyzing any business is to ask: Are they being subsidized in any way, and by whom? If so, then you guarantee distortions in any analysis. The FED lowering interest rates until recently has been a blanket subsidy across the business and economic activity spectrum. Even if the government tries to maintain subsidies, when currency loses its backing and inflates, these subsidies’ effectiveness will vanish like the proverbial mirage.
Hobbs,
Not sure exactly what you are looking at, the enormous debt we have as a government concerns me greatly. Demand for electricity is increasing with AI and even though I expect that to be cured by Starship, in-between time electricity could become expensive.
Even if one looks ahead, hard to find assets which will have value other than children. Yup, self replicating and to a limited extend self healing units. We need our children. Again, thanks to Gail who pointed out humans, up to a certain age are self healing within limits.
Dennis L.
It won’t be cured by a nonexistent starship
It’s always nice to see the smug, superior attitude of the bbc’s mouthpiece getting put back in their box.
No one does sour grapes quite like the bbc.
Show us your forests Mr Net Zero😁
https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1773754505059852529?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
Pay up or shut up virtue signaling hypocrite, seems to be the jist of it 👍
😀
Mohamed Irfaan Ali, President of Guyana, lecturing BBC stuffed shirt, on carbon emissions.
The pronoun crowd in US academia will be conflicted if they watch this.
This was published by the Wall Street Journal…It don’t get any better than that..
Robert Howarth is getting under the skin of the oil-and-gas industry. The gray-haired climate scientist says he doesn’t care.
Howarth, a methane researcher at Cornell University, said in a recent study that exports of liquefied natural gas from the U.S. were so bad for the climate that ending the use of LNG should be a global priority. The research influenced President Biden’s decision in January to pause new approvals of LNG exports.
The turn of events riled executives throughout the fracking industry—especially at Pittsburgh-based EQT EQT 2.77%increase; green up pointing triangle, the country’s largest natural-gas producer.
The fracker extracts natural gas from Appalachian fields and has been evangelizing the benefits of U.S. LNG, which it says can help reduce carbon emissions abroad. EQT is campaigning to quadruple the nation’s export capacity by 2030. T-shirts it sells online are marked with the words “UNLEASH U.S. LNG.”
William Jordan, EQT’s general counsel, said Howarth has been seeking to influence policymakers at the expense of rigor. He said Howarth crossed the line between research and advocacy, and his work contributes to a false narrative that shutting down natural gas pipelines and blocking LNG plants helps mitigate climate change.
“It’s a problem when the purpose of scientific research shifts from gaining understanding to influencing,” Jordan said in the company’s first public remarks about the research.
……..
In a way, Howarth had been on a collision course with EQT for years. The company says the U.S. sits on so much cheap natural gas that it could supply global markets for decades and help phase out global coal use. EQT Chief Executive Toby Rice has advocated for erecting new LNG terminals on the East Coast, which would allow it to ship more molecules to foreign markets abroad and increase demand for EQT’s gas.
Jordan said Howarth’s argument that shale gas is worse for the climate than coal relies on flawed assumptions about how much methane coal and shale gas emit, and that the scientist is cherry-picking data. He said a research effort involving academics and partially funded by EQT has found that at least in some parts of Appalachia where the company operates, coal mines emit much more methane than shale gas operations.
Howarth said he categorically denied Jordan’s assertion that his assumptions are flawed or that he is selectively picking data. He noted he is one of the most cited scientists in the world, and said that overall, his research had been received positively by the rest of the scientific community.
The song and dance continues..The BAU Show must go on…we have no choice
Of course, whether or not it matters depends on whether CO2 is really the culprit, of lack of global dimming.
It’s just an accomplice , more than one type of greenhouse gasses out there As a matter of fact, got my house tented for termite and the gas that is used to fumigate the insects is a very potent greenhouse gas…m
Happy Easter to Gail & any OFW folks who observe.
Thank you,
Join RIA
Wealth Gap And The Road To Serfdom
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wealth-gap-and-the-road-to-serfdom/
One of the most interesting conundrums is the surging wealth gap in America. Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement. Such a reality starkly differs from the belief that rising asset prices benefit the masses.
For example, in a recent St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank analysis, total household wealth was $139.1 trillion, covering 131 million families. Of that total wealth, 74% was owned by just 13.2 million families, or roughly 10% of the population.
Gail will love this article many charts
Of course, whether or not investment accounts for retirement make any difference depends on how far away from retirement a person is, and whether a person thinks that the funds in those accounts will have any chance of buying anything with them.
There need to be goods and services for sale that are not being allocated first to the people producing those goods and services. If fossil fuels are in short supply, it is questionable that these goods and services will be available.
I live in a rural midwestern state. When I go on trips outside my town, I see a lot large newly build homes in the middle of nowhere, built mostly by retired farmers. Without enough automobiles, I always wonder what the value of these houses will be in the future, or whether or not they will able to live there.
It’s now Happy Transgender day made official by Norm’s boyhood hero, Joe Bidet. Norm do you still have his poster on your bedroom wall?
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/politics/happy-transgender-day-forget-easter/
rodster
stop dicing words
you’ll lose
I take that as a yes.
I googled “dicing words”. It has no meaning.
Thanks, Retired Librarian.
If inflation doesn’t start slowing down.
Mexico may need that wall to keep Americans out.
Or more likely USA will invade Mexico
A traitor named Nicholas Trist, whose name few people remember now, robbed USA the chance to claim Baja California and Sonora because he ‘sympathized’ with the Mexicans during the negotiations in 1849
We don’t need people like him
He is just one circle above Chucky in Kulm’s hell.
Mexico is getting EXPENSIVE! My Cost of Living in 2024
Tangerine Travel
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=063YEj8DVZY&t=38s&pp=ygURVGFuZ2VyaW5lIHRyYXZlbHM%3D
In this livestream we’re going to chat about how cheap or expensive Mexico is in 2024 by reviewing my expenses and costs of living in Queretaro.
In this, I will be covering the cost of living in Mexico in regards to: Internet speeds and costs, rent costs, water bill, electricity bill, my gas costs to run the water heaters, dryer, and well as cooking at home.
I’ll be discussing food costs, in terms of both going out to eat and eating at home.
We will also be discussing how the exchange rate effects us who are living in Mexico and earning or saving in a different currency.
Are you an expat in Mexico or considering the move? The cost of living has seen significant changes, and in this video, we break down our 2024 expenses living in Mexico. Join us as we explore the impact of rising prices, exchange rates, and share real data from our household of two adults and three dogs.
Sorry, it happening there too
The sky is the limit when it comes to health care.
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/03/thomas-luongo/asymmetric-response-and-the-perp-walk-to-world-war-iii/
Good article on who did the bridge.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoExMhGciog
A guy who knows how boats work.
okay then:
“No, I think this again is one of those “orgies of evidence” to frame Russia for something someone else did for very different reasons. And that reason is pure, unfettered, narcissistic revenge for the US having the temerity to walk away from its responsibilities (as they have defined them) in Europe.
These people have been very clear now for years, either the US goes along with their plans for the future or it will be destroyed from within. This attack on the Key bridge in Baltimore is a nightmare event, meant to be a catalyst for a breakdown of the US economy, creating chaos during an election year.”
so not Russia, but “someone else did” and it’s “These people”.
so who do YOU think it is?
he seems to be saying European globalists!
and again:
has it been verified that US personnel were piloting the ship at the time?
if US pilots were controlling the ship, as has been discussed here a day or two ago, then that blows up most of the CTs.
David, one way to weed out impossible hypotheses is to look at what the western media are doing. In Europe it was minimized (basically a curiosity video in most web dailies), in the US it is dropping out of the news cycle very fast.
Compare this with what is happening here re: Crocus, an event that, the more I look at it, the more I think was staged (low res. videos, abnormalities in videos, giant fire started with a few bottles). That drum is being beaten like a rented mule. And Crocus is a less significant event than the bridge, except for mass psychology.
So re: the bridge. I think we can exclude CIA. They don’t beat no drum and there are cheaper ways to make false flags. The Boston marathon was pennies under the couch cushions compared to this. Genuine accident, specially if it included some DEI hire, can be accepted as a viable explanation. Cyberattack also acceptable at this time. It is possible that the ship crew did it but I feel I can discount that right now. Not many people outside of Takfiris embrace martyrdom.
I note that the ship had already traveled a couple of miles as it approached the bridge. Why would the dirty fuel act then and only then?
i think the same people who demolished the WTC building, got jobs as filipino crew on that ship, and crashed it
either that, or there was no ship, (just a hologram) and the CIA (ex WTC guys) blew up the bridge
nothing like a good conspiracy to start the day
Happy Easter Norman. I love your principled stand against “cui bono”.
“Genuine accident, specially if it included some DEI hire, can be accepted as a viable explanation.”
that is #1 most likely in my opinion, especially if some incompetent DEI system was placing poorly trained US pilots in control of the ship.
The article starts out with who might have responsible for the recent attack in Russia:
“reframing this as a distinctly British operation (with help from rogue elements in the State Dept. and CIA, of course) yields a far more coherent narrative.”
and
“What if Nuland was fired because knowledge of this attack finally reached the right people at State and the DoD? And they realized, rightly so, that an attack like this would make it nearly impossible for Putin to ignore and force his hand politically to escalate the war in Ukraine to a level that would justify to the people of the West that it was finally time for us to get involved over there.”
Regarding the Key Bridge, Luongo says:
“The question then is, “who committed the act?” We will never find out the truth to this but our prime suspect has to be the one who has the motive to get the US to go “on tilt” and move into position to defend Ukraine openly.”
Also,
“No, I think this again is one of those “orgies of evidence” to frame Russia for something someone else did for very different reasons. And that reason is pure, unfettered, narcissistic revenge for the US having the temerity to walk away from its responsibilities (as they have defined them) in Europe.”
This is for Kulm so he can get it , it is written by Hubbert it explains the state of the world thanks to fossil fuels and unfortunateley it is what it is nothing can really change where we are at now…
“Getting something for nothing
In the distribution to the public of the products of industry, the failure of the present system is the direct result of the faulty premise upon which it is based. This is: that somehow a man is able by his personal services to render to society the equivalent of what he receives, from which it follows that the distribution to each shall be in accordance with the services rendered and that those who do not work must not eat. This is what our propagandists call ‘the impossibility of getting something for nothing.’
Aside from the fact that only by means of the sophistries of lawyers and economists can it be explained how, on this basis, those who do nothing at all frequently receive the largest shares of the national income, the simple fact is that it is impossible for any man to contribute to the social system the physical equivalent of what it costs the system to maintain him form birth till death–and the higher the physical standard of living the greater is this discrepancy. This is because man is an engine operating under the limitations of the same physical laws as any other engine. The energy that it takes to operate him is several times as much as any amount of work he can possibly perform.
If, in addition to his food, he receives also the products of modern industry, this is due to the fact that material and energy resources happen to be available and, as compared with any contribution he can make, constitute a free gift from heaven. Stated more specifically, it costs the social system on the North American Continent the energy equivalent to nearly 10 tons of coal per year to maintain one man at the average present standard of living, and no contribution he can possibly make in terms of the energy conversion of his individual effort will ever repay the social system the cost of his social maintenance. Is it not to be wondered at, therefore, that a distributive mechanism based upon so rank a fallacy should fail to distribute; the marvel is that it has worked as well as it has.
Since any human being, regardless of his personal contribution, is a social dependent with respect to the energy resources upon which society operates, and since every operation within a given society is effected at the cost of a degradation of an available supply of energy, this energy degradation, measured in appropriate physical units such as kilowatt-hours, constitutes the common physical cost of all social operations.
Since also the energy-cost of maintaining a human being exceeds by a large amount his ability to repay, we can abandon the fiction that what one is to receive is in payment for what one has done, and recognize that what we are really doing is utilizing the bounty that nature has provided us. Under these circumstances we recognize that we all are getting something for nothing, and the simplest way of effecting distribution is on a basis of equality, especially so when it is considered that production can be set equal to the limit of our capacity to consume, commensurate with adequate conservation of our physical resources. ”
[I added paragraph breaks to make this more readable. Gail]
a one line summary adonis (you are quite correct)—–
we turned the planet into cash
Although I disagree with Dennis L. often since he is beating the drums 50 years too late and thinks it can be done, which I am very negative about that, it was necessary to advance to the space when we could in order to get the resources which are needed to advance civilization. My disagreement with him is that he still thinks it can be done at this eleventh hour and I don’t think it can be done since the time has run out .
The folks at the Bunker thought things could be turned around and believed in the Wunderwaffe, but von Manstein, probably the greatest German military leader in the 20th century, admitted all was lost and laid low for 1 year, and lived to lead the Bundeswehr later. (Doenitz tried to contact Manstein after becoming the fuhrer, knowing Manstein had some weight to the West, but Manstein had already surrendered to the British who did not treat him badly)
Wunderwaffes cannot save the day. By that time they are needed it is already over.
King Hubbert was born in Texas and not much is known about his lineage or personal life. Since his biographical info is so scant his biography mostly concerns about what he did, not what he was.
But it appears he was not one of the people who had a stake in the world. Otherwise his idea would have gained more traction.
What doomed the earth was mass consumption. When the local vendors at Timbuktu uses smartphone, and the tribes of New Guinea get info from Telegram, it is over.
The gift of abundant cheap energy with a young educated post WWII workforce, the only nation left standing, world reserve currency privilege, etc. was so great that the productive middle class could carry the accumulating parasitic load of money changers, politicians, lawyers, realtors, bankers, hedge fund managers, woke educators, and now an illegal immigrant invasion. Until now.
The problem is a Catch-22. When you are focused on doing actual productive work, you can’t also focus on protecting your wealth from the parasites. In contrast, they have everything provided for them so they can devote their energy to all out parasitism. This involved corrupting the four essentials that are needed in order to address the core issues of energy, resource depletion, pollution burning on one end of the candle and on the other end, increasing sovereign, commercial and personal debt.
We need
1.) Honest money-(End the FED and a debt based fractional reserve banking shystem)
2.) Honest media- so the public has a chance of being informed /educated
3.) Honest elections- based on our Founding Fathers’ awareness that only those who had skin in the game should be allowed to vote. Pure Democracy is toxic.
4.) Rule of law
We have none of these, so we have nothing to work with to address our problems of overpopulation, energy and natural resources, forthcoming civil unrest from illegal immigrant invasion, and DEI that strip away productivity.
Indirectly, we humans have a lot of energy slaves working for us, providing us with our needs.
Speaking about Michael Hudson, I have this
https://youtu.be/PlAN5-Lk0hw?si=FDCVf13BizrIWDNe
This guy is a follower of Hudson, like Matt Ehret being a follower of Lyndon LaRouche.
Did the West exploit the World? Yes.
So what?
It brought the world on the brink of breaking the wall and within a spade of reaching Type I Civilization
This guy is ignorant about Chinese traditions to say whether China can help the Third World
China is where Imperialism originated, having its first Emperor in 221 BCE
It exploited everywhere around it. Only a lack of naval power kept it from having overseas colony.
Map of Ming dynasty, circa 1600
https://images.chinahighlights.com/allpicture/2021/11/2de4660436f345bc80550205_748x440.webpas colonies.
(The control of Manchuria was only nominal, with local tribes paying tributes to the Imperial Govt but emigration of Chinese into Manchuria only began in 1860s)
As late as 400 years ago China did not control more than 40% of the current burders
Michael Hudson, like most commies who never spent a day in the real world, lives in a dream bubble which won’t outlive the end of BAU.
Funny, I was just reading Hudson’s blog after he had an appearance on the Duran.
https://michael-hudson.com/2024/03/germany-as-collateral-damage-in-americas-new-cold-war/
https://michael-hudson.com/2024/03/economics-as-a-form-of-art/
PS the second link is largely about jubilee in ancient times and how modern monetary systems don’t have this built-in reset mechanism and thus are geared towards oligarchy and debt bondage.
Russian victory is coming and entirely on terms decided by Russia….
It was always obvious that was coming.
Russia has a serious military-industrial base and USA/ UK/ NATO does not.
USA took a decision to largely shut down its military-industrial base at the ‘Last Supper’ in 1993.
UK has what the Telegraph calls a ‘Potemkin military’- basically imaginary.
Anyway….
Rus Prepares Blackout East Ukr, 2 Ukr Towns Falling, Ukr Troops In Trap; Zelensky Syrsky Interviews
Spring and Summer of 2024 is going to see a very fine offensive indeed.
This is today’s Duran, economic rent. I agree and from what I see, Musk is looking at humanity and doing things for humanity which are/maybe the saving of civilization. Don’t expect perfection and you won’t be disappointed.
We are going to need radical change, and it will happen. I stole this from the presentation linked below.
Michael Hudson is the economist, economic rent figures strongly in this presentation. I like Glen Diesen and his thoughts as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OFrxgMFbN8c
It is an hour and eleven minutes long, I multi task these sorts of things backup and pickup what is of interest. They do mention student debt and our current President as the author of the bill which disallowed bankruptcy of student debt. Allowing bankruptcy would have avoid an incredible amount of problems. The greatest waste was the loss of student’s time when they could have been learning a useful skill which benefited themselves and those around them. That is civilizational.
We will be fine, but it will be bumpy.
Dennis L.
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/government%20spending.jpg?itok=SThHQwUN
Maybe we can buy perpetual Minsky bonds.
Nice chart!
Do you think before you write, or are you just typing whatever you are channeling to is saying?
Allowing bankruptcy to student debt is tantamount to giving them free post-secondary education. With whose money? It is not fair to those without children or those who chose to forgo universities.
If someone decided to get a post-secondary education one has to pay for it.
If someone is poor the person has to get a cheaper method of education. It might be sad but it is a fact of life. Those who attend expensive private universities to major in subjects not likely to bring enough money to pay for it should still be on the hock for the rest of life in order to pay for their youthful mistakes.
As for me, I did NOT attend a private university since I could not afford it, and therefore I avoided college debt. I don’t know what university you attended and I do not really care, but there is something called personal responsibility, which you want to avoid so badly but will catch up with you.
Other countries do not charge students such exorbitant amounts for advanced education. They often have entrance exams that regulate how many can attend, so that they do not have a vast oversupply of college graduates. We let practically everyone in, and give students and array of expensive add-ons: fancy housing, with individual rooms and a bathroom for each student; food service with a wide array of choices; a football team and other sporting groups; athletic services where students can exercise in comfort; and an array of courses, many of which have no obvious job applicability.
Needless to say, this costs a fortune. Universities have been allowed add layers of administration. Part of this is to get government (and other grants) for research grant funding. Faculty with Ph.D’s are encouraged to work on research, even in areas where this makes little sense. Students are handed over to low-paid part time faculty.
The system basically isn’t working. It isn’t the “poor” students’ fault. It is the fault of our idiotic system.
In Europe there are class systems so people from working class normally do not attend universities since it is not in their tradition.
In Asia, the old style imperial examination system has survived, and preparing for the exams is not cheap so people who can’t afford universities forgo that process.
The GI Bill, which was introduced to prevent millions of younger men flooding the job market in postwar USA, was a method to bribe them without really paying them anything and when that was done women demanded similar quotas for them so everyone began attending universities.
Universities themselves are like businesses now. Footfall coaches are often the highest paid positions in a university. They are not giving it up.
The system might be rotten but too much money is involved. NCAA football and basketball are billion dollar businesses.
You’re wrong. The class system didn’t stop me from being the first in my long line of commoners to go to college. And I only manage that because I didn’t have to go into debt to do it- just just had to prove that I had the intelligence to pass the required tests.
Such are the joys of socialism.
Go JMS!
Dennis L.
One of the countries ‘liberated’ by Stalin does not count since at there all social fabric was shaken
You are proving his point. College is a great business because it is very good at emotionally manipulating people into going into debt . It is more effective than being married with kids. A parent has to be responsible. A perpetual student, a life-long learner is a perpetual child. Who cares what happened in a socialist country–it’ is very easy for them to afford free college tuition since costs for colleges are fixed because capacity and jobs are fixed.
The only thing that can upset college costs in a Communist or socialist system are political ambitions of a state-planner who may want to increase the number of a certain kind of professional to compete with a capitalist system.
My country was not liberated by Stalin.
It was under a right-wing dictatorship between 1926 and 1974, when a military coup implemented a parliamentary democracy with a social democratic tendency.
Wait a minute. Back in the good old days, college was relatively more affordable and part time jobs paid enough so the debt burden wasn’t as great, plus the job market was much more rewarding upon graduation. It’s an apples to oranges comparison. As a disclosure, I came from a two physician family and had the luxury of attending elite prep school and college and post graduate school emerging with no debts. Yes, the Z’ers have some work ethic issues, I agree, but they also have greater obstacles to overcome compared to us “bootstrappers” who always say that if we worked full time while going to college and paid back our loans and lived off PB&J for years and pulled ourselves up by our bootstraps, then the Zers can do it too. BS! I would be demoralized too if I were going to college like my daughter is, and busting her ass in a STEM curriculum yet realizing that it may be for nothing. That’s why I refuse to let her get into debt, and as long as she takes the ball and runs with it, and is aware (even worried) about what she has coming down the line, I’d rather be the one who gets chumped for paying her wildly inflated tuition. Follow the money. NCSU is raking it in, so that it can have a good basketball team, so that the players can attend, not for an education but so they can prepare for careers in the NBA which will make them, and the team owners like Mark Cuban, shitloads of money.
In Europe there are class systems so people from working class normally do not attend universities since it is not in their tradition.
In Asia, the old style imperial examination system has survived, and preparing for the exams is not cheap so people who can’t afford universities forgo that process.
Kulm, you are completely wrong on this.
The entrance exam system is just the modern incarnation of the imperial exam system, which you probably do not know since Malaysia was never part of an Asian Empire
That was the idea, anyway. In practice, seemingly every phase of the implementation has gone wrong; an ostensible process of simplification has made enrolling in college much harder. And while the government scrambles to fix the problems it created, time is running out for an entire nation’s worth of high-school seniors. The effect on college attendance threatens to be even worse than the coronavirus pandemic
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/03/fafsa-fiasco-college-enrollment/677929/
Colleges Are Facing an Enrollment Nightmare
A botched effort to streamline the financial-aid process may prevent a huge number of students from going to college in the fall.
By Rose Horowitch The Atlantic
Mike, CC. I am now at say 70 credits. I have probably a couple hundred more to boot, Madison, Marquette Dental, St. Ambrose, MBA program, no MBA, 41 credits to graduate, I have 60 and taught one of the courses. Go figure.
See my note on CC, it works and it is not expensive in MN. I love the place.
Dennis L.
Back in the mid 1970s I attended Community College and worked at the College bookstore and then went to an affordable state university nearby.
It wasn’t too difficult back then if one did not get a fancy high end status seeking pigskin.
Today forty years later it’s a different game..that 2 year community college is now a four year college.
Next, what to major in?
It’s not idiotic, Gail. The college system is working exactly the way the people administrating it want it to.
You have to look at it as part of a huge jobs program. Lowering college tuition, eliminating student debt would dramatically increase unemployment in many metropolitan cities.
Same thing if healthcare costs were reigned in., many cities in the United States would become Detroit. College and healthcare are the U.S. economy at this point. Any place that doesn’t have them, have no rich people spending money (investing) in them and therefore has no economy.
Its even worse than that.
In Canukistan I got a doctoral degree but after multi decade long career I cannot practice my trade because…..you know……”feelings”………
Its beyond stupid,…..its beyond idiocy,……it is a visible tragedy and the trend is accelerating.
The moral degeneracy is complete up here. 80% of population makes a merino sheep seem like a genius.
True complete and total parasitic growths on the body politic that is now engulfing the life support systems of the nation.
“I cannot practice my trade because…..you know……”feelings”………”
I’m don’t know what you’re trying to convey.
It’s difficult to determine who is a parasite (free-loader, free-rider) when it is constantly communicated that the least important people to the day-to-day functioning of society are the most important. In addition to that, there are a lot of people making high salaries who just aren’t needed . They are overhead. I’m starting to think this has been the norm in human societies since humans societies have existed.
Without respect, dear Kulm, debt nor studies are relevant. And we are way beyond that paywall. I think you are looking the core of this website in the eyes; in de-growth nothing works like it did for the past 100 years.
kul,
Prior to student debt, at Madison my semester tuition was $110 unless I took over 18 credits. I was lucky enough to get a housefellow position at Madison in my junior, senior year and grad school, it paid everything including a Sunday night stipend at the Union for a nice meal. I of course took a woman housefellow.
Debt has increased the administrative staff of schools.
I currently attend a CC, having a ball in EE, prior to sitting down here reading a Linux manual, going to try and pass the certification test. Chutzpa.
My CC is administrative light, the kids learn, the teachers care. They are as good as some of the best I have had; that is great for the kids. In EE with over time, $100k/ year at Mayo. starting pay. When the MRI or proton Beam is down, minutes are expensive, who you going to call? I like that line.
You are okay, kul. Where did you go to school, man don’t say Michigan.
Dennis L.
I prefer not to divulge my personal info
But the end of cheaper tuition in post secondary education ended with ‘affirmative action’
You were lucky enough to attend it before affirmative action, which led to the bloating of administrators, and a myriad of ethnic squabbles, dominated these universities
Plus affirmative action grads tend to give not too much back to the universities, including Asians.
Allowing bankruptcy to student debt is tantamount to giving them free post-secondary education. With whose money? It is not fair to those without children or those who chose to forgo universities.
It’s also about the financial sysrtem. Debts with interest must be paid because they form parts of many other investments now.
As for me, I did NOT attend a private university since I could not afford it, and therefore I avoided college debt.
You know more about literature and history than most people who did attend private universities. But why this slavish worship of the elite if you’re one of the proles?
Because it is the only way to advance civilization. No more, no less. I am aware that these are very arrogant aholes you don’t really want to be hanging around, but without them nothing can advance
We had 80 years of letting the plebs run the world and this is what we got.
What plebs were allowed to run things
? Almost all countries have an unofficial aristocracy where all politicians come from wealthy families.
I’ll be waiting for the examples of politicians that came from working class or underclass backgrounds, kul. Even the rags to riches stories have a rich person in the background elevating a pleb r person into a position of power.
A pleb can be rich but they are still plebs
Kate Middleton’s grandpa was a miner. She didn’t grow up poor but she is a pleb, and I expect that line to die out within a couple of generations to be replaced by the legitimate line of Andrew’s elder daughter Beatrice, who did marry an Italian nobleman.
A pleb is someone who has NO STAKE on civilization, not being from families who had a stake on it
Economic interdependence among countries is changing dramatically. I need to find time to listen to this video.
Bankruptcy because of student debt is not good…but no bankruptcy is. However, to qualify for the relief being given now, the debtor must have paid for a certain number of years and the amount left to pay must be below $10,000, I believe. These are notes that are government backed not privately backed. This makes a difference because the principal (original amount borrowed) has been paid over these years and the amount left is the added compound interest. The government doesn’t need this profit to break even so they are excusing it.
Compound interest is the reason that world debt is so large and unpayable. It was originally banned by religions for a good reason.
The economy is strong or is it ?
https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-do-food-stamps-social-security-and-medicare-support-the-economy/
yes The Core is still strong enough where a country can hand out “transfer payments” equivalent to about 20% of total personal income.
dam strong.
that’s what peak FF surplus energy delivers.
degrowth, perhaps just starting now, will accelerate in a few years and cause major problems to transfer payment systems.
perhaps by 2030 or so.
It takes a whole lot of surplus energy to afford all of the transfer payments. All we can do is add more debt and pretend to afford the transfer payments. Add in all of the money owed to people from private pension plans, as well, to see how much is being funded from other sources.
Yup. Like BTC ETF’s, fractional stocks, perpetual bonds, and, of course, elections. Duh..
Wake me up when a Drag queen wins the elections and merries Vladimir Putin at the McGaza Tower.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ix_R6WTX04I
5GW will be needed for the Stargate project by 2030. This is a joint Microsoft OpenAI project to build a large data center/computer to train large AGs.
If Georgia wants to host Stargate it will need to start building five nukes now!
Get more government debt guarantees. Ramp up borrowing to pay for all of this.
I found something on the EIA pages saying that Georgia was a net importer of electricity from other states, but this was written before Georgia’s new nuclear generation went on line, or will go on line (varying dates for the two new reactors).
It will be built in space, it will be run by fusion, photons to electrons and data to earth in photons, speed of light communications.
TINA, you are absolutely correct. Starship will make this an almost trivial project.
Dennis L
Built in space by a nonexistent starship with a nonexistent fusion in a much-slower-than-light-communication-because-of-interferences
It is not even funny
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/baltimore-bridge-collapse-container-ship-potentially-atop-high-pressure-underwater-gas
Baltimore Bridge Collapse: Container Ship “Potentially Atop High-Pressure Underwater Gas Line”
Site has maps of the pipeline.
I asked the question , how long will it take to fix the mess ?
https://pjmedia.com/vodkapundit/2024/03/29/it-could-take-how-long-to-rebuild-francis-scott-key-bridge-n4927756
From the article:
Further the article says ;
” But everyone knows that won’t happen. The replacement bridge will have to be new and somehow improved — or so they’ll claim — and require months or years of study on the environmental impacts, even though there’s been a bridge there for 50 years already. Hiring contractors will likely take twice as long as they’ll have to meet strict new DEI standards. Competence and speed? Tertiary considerations, at best.”
Could it really take twice as long and four times as much money to replace the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge than it did to build it in the first place? . .
Completely normal, that’s entropy for you.
“The front is crumbling.”
I suppose that we will see what happens and when.
Russia has shifted to massive bombardments of the fronts likened to a ‘blitzkrieg’ and everyone is waiting to see what gives way and when.
NATO was open that USA, UK, EU ran out of stuff to send to UKR months ago.
Russia has now taken out much of UKR’s missile defence systems like the ‘patriot’ systems. Russia still has an increasingly massive artillery advantage and now more control of the air.
Russia has fought the UKR SMO as an attrition war and it was always only a matter of time before Russia won.
Western nations have now told their embassies in Kharkiv and Odesa to ‘get out now’.
‘Evacuate Now…’: West Nations Ask Citizens To Leave Kharkiv, Odesa Fearing Russia’s Victory
Russia is reportedly set to establish total control over Kharkiv & Odesa amid a mega blitzkrieg. Russian diplomat made a big claim about panic among western nations over Moscow’s win. “Embassies In Kyiv Are Asking Citizens To Leave Kharkiv, Odesa,” said Konstantin Gavrilov, head of Russian Delegation to the Vienna negotiations on military security and arms control. He said that Russia’s victory will be achieved in an obvious way, as this can happen any time.
“Russia has fought the UKR SMO as an attrition war and it was always only a matter of time before Russia won.”
2+ years of attrition will lead now to a swifter and more complete offensive.
“Western nations have now told their embassies in Kharkiv and Odesa to ‘get out now’.”
very nice, some more oblasts for Russia to annex.
then free elections where these oblasts will vote overwhelmingly to join Russia.
No one won. The collective west hoped for rent seeking and instead is bankrupting itself blowing up perfectly good raw materials.
Ukraine saw a different future than what is now happening and lost land, capital and most precious youth.
Russia has lost precious youth as well, the one thing it seems to have gained is getting rent seekers off its back secondary to the sanctions. Now for the collective west that is a revolting development.
Greed resulted on incredible loss to all parties. Assuming the Duran link comes up, it has an understanding of all this.
Dennis L.
Good points… The group think on here is Russia good … West bad … hooo hooo monkey mind!!! They both are fools!! I do wonder if this site is being hacked/funded by Russian interest… the west is stupid but so is Russia but shhh we are not allowed to criticize Russia… right Gail??
Actually, you are.
there you go, Sam, you’re allowed to criticize Russia.
so, let’s see your best.
what’s bad/stoopid about Russia?
Well, for one thing, those Russian winters are terrible.
It is no surprise that the Baltic nations prefer to get their winters from the EU.
ha ha only a stoopid Siberian would live in Siberia.
continue to explain why God’s wrath is so violent against Rome and her empire. Rome glorified itself and lived in luxury. No one gave glory to God for their prosperity. They elevated themselves and glorified themselves. Further, they think they will never fall. They think that these times will never change. They think this prosperity will never end because they think they did it all. They rule and think that rule will never end. God says in verse 8 that this is the reason that they will be struck down suddenly. Rather than life and prosperity, the empire will crumble into death, mourning, and famine. Revelation is not predicting that Rome fell in one day, just as the scriptures are not predicting other nations falling in one day (cf. Isaiah 47:9). It is a symbol of the suddenness of the loss of power and authority. It would seem that the empire would never end and suddenly the empire will be in trouble. It will lose its power and be destroyed. This is the imagery of the fire. Revelation is not predicting Rome literally burning (cf. Isaiah 47:14). The fire is a symbol of judgment. Its time of glory and rule is over. The empire has fallen. Rome has lost her power.
https://thebookofrevelationmadeclear.com/revelation-bible-study/fall-of-babylon.html
Sam, Rome will fall.
Different verse, I agree, humanism is hubris, we discover the fabric of the universe.
The US has done wonderful things for the world, we are in a rough spot. I hope things will turn around.
Not a pacifist, but we can live together much more cheaply than fighting one another.
Dennis L
Also the Bible: Egypt will fall
Babylon will fall.
The Israelites sure made a lot enemies over the last 1000 years.
Wonder how the Universe sees these pictures of BAU Baby.
Mercy me: Photos show what humans have done to the planet in the Anthropocene age
MARCH 29, 202411:51 AM ET
By Jonathan Lambert Rebecca Ellis
https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2024/03/29/1241234103/anthropocene-era-photos-earth-human-scars-planet
They created over 50 images capturing the impact of humans on the Earth, like a sprawling, 30-acre garbage dump in Kenya, large swaths of deforestation in Borneo and waterways damaged by oil siphoning in Nigeria.
Like Norm has stated, we turned the planet into cash
The damage is surprisingly temporary. Read The World Without Us by Alan Weisman.
Hmmm, depends, I suppose if we launch our nuclear toys it may not be temporary…and for all practical purposes if longer .it’s more like almost forever..
New Study Suggests Humans Will Not Live Long Enough To See Earth Recover From A Mass Extinction
Date:
March 29, 2000
Source:
University Of California At Berkeley
Summary:
The Earth needs, on average, about 10 million years to recover from a mass extinction of the planet’s species, far longer than most scientists thought, according to a new study by scientists at the University of California, Berkeley, and Duke University.
Share:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2000/03/000329080536.htm#google_vignette
“The Earth needs, on average, about 10 million years to recover from a mass extinction of the planet’s species…”
very nice, after human extinction, the recovery won’t take very long, only about 10 million years.
other mass extinctions will happen of course over the next few billion years, so there is still plenty of time for many such recoveries.
the Sun becoming a red giant and turning the Earth to toast will happen in its own time.
the Universe seems to want Progress where this solar system is purified and the Earth is burnt up by the Sun, oh well who are we mere humans to not accept what the Universe wants to do?
Said seriously,
Jupiter, make it in space, junk to Jupiter, gentle nudge.
TINA
Dennis L.
To a certain extent, yes, we are hard on the earth. But, we need to get to the other side and the earth over the eons has rearranged things fairly dramatically. If all else fails, collide a plate, subduct a land mass and recycle.
What is frustrating is the shortness of human life. The fabric of the universe has a solution; replication.
Dennis L.
They will never have to worry about growing old
https://t.me/intelslava/56814
They can go into battle with Black Sabbath blasting as Ozzy sings the real deal…believe the Taliban made good use of heavy metal too to hype themselves up before and during engagements
https://m.youtube.com/shorts/U3E6Og-37zc
Short of Ozzy live on stage in the 1970s
We all know what kind of bus Ozzy drove back during the days of school busing–the SHORT kind!
All aboard!
Those Ford and Chevy Vans were fantastic..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JQf6uqzEAQ8&pp=ygUTNzBzIHNvbmcgY2hldnkgdmFuIA%3D%3D
Sammy Johns – Chevy Van – 1973 – Rockmaster Flashback Videos 2014
Great tune and brings back fun times
Incidentally, Kate has been spotted again!
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F081eb71d-d70c-4d41-8469-c34e7686e059_800x1034.jpeg
Turbo C!
That is terrible, that is hating your children and I am afraid the originators are in my country, the US.
It is not right and the universe will not be happy and neither will the Russians who have to kill them. It is a horrible job.
Dennis L.
the universe doesn’t care about you (and it’s a good thing)
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=z_YJyqpI50Y&pp=ygUjdGhlIHVuaXZlcnNlIGRvZXMgbm90IGNhcmVhYm91dCB5b3U%3D
Oh well, Dennis, just roll with it.
Unfortunately Gail seems to have been influenced by him and is now believing his theory of the universe preparing humans for 26 billion years.
The Universe cares about humans as much as John Calhoun, the rat experiment guy, cared about his rats.
When all of the rats perished he felt nothing.
At least the Asians do treat the animals who were used at experiments a bit better – once per year, usually around the QIng Ming festival (traditionally a day to commemorate the dead, usually done in spring – curiously it is next Thursday for this year), they do a memorial service for the animals who were killed in experiments. I am not aware of a similar thing in the West.
kul,
The universe has great interest in humanity, it is pretty busy to be concerned about each individual, it is a group which goes forward and the individual goes with the group.
Dennis L.
I’ll confirm this tonight with you know who …
Not too terrible for me. It is kind of a fact of life in slavic countries, which had centuries of war and this is just nothing more than a chapter in their history. There will be another war, sometime in the future, and again there will be deaths.
The universe has not given a shit about the Great War, which did kill millions of the cream of the crop of Western Civilization, which was replaced by lower class whites of mostly Irish, Bavarian and Polish stock.
kul,
Over the years I have run three businesses, very successfully. What I was best at was getting a group to do well enough so each person would do a bit better in my group than another group. Were you to know where to look, you would see my face smiling out at you from the front page of a certain paper having put together and doing what was supposedly impossible. It was political at its base, that was the key. It was fun.
Even a nation is a group, not everyone will make it, but each will have a better chance than somewhere else.
See new post, today’s Duran, about rent seeking. I am preferential to these ideas. I will start a new post and link it.
Keep at it kul, you are a smart guy and you will get it.
Dennis L.
You ran your businesses when things were growing and the age of contraction has arrived, no matter what type of cool aid you might be drinking.
You are like the guy who stands before a 100 ft tsunami , thinking he can survive that.
Ukrainian kids on a bus, dressed in military uniforms.
Global Warming Acceleration: Hope vs Hopium (Hansen 2024)
“Much of the acceleration in warming occurred over the North Pacific & North Atlantic where ship aerosols decreased due to new International Maritime Organization (IMO) fuel regulations.
“Understanding that global warming is accelerating is important because it shows futility of current ”wishful thinking” net-zero “hopium” policies.
Hansen derides lack of progress on nuclear power in past decades & takes a swipe at Amory Lovins who convinced Bill Clinton that nuclear wasn’t necessary since he said wind, solar and energy efficiency were all that was needed.”
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2024/Hopium.MarchEmail.2024.03.29.pdf
PDF starts with:
“decreasing human-made aerosols increased Earth’s energy imbalance and accelerated global warming in the past decade.”
This is related to:
““Much of the acceleration in warming occurred over the North Pacific & North Atlantic where ship aerosols decreased due to new International Maritime Organization (IMO) fuel regulations.”
Air quality over China has become better, as well, I believe, because people were having trouble breathing.
Aerosols seem to be “up at the top” in terms of short term disruptions to the climate. Removing aerosols tends to cause the atmosphere to warm because of loss of dimming effect. But the hype we hear is all about burning fossil fuels.
Global dimming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
Basically, so much pollution has created a sorta smoke cloud blocking solar energy, hence keeping earth cooler. So lowering pollution levels (like switching bunker fuels in 2020) will initially create a huge increase in global temps until they eventually go into reverse. (assuming they do)
Net zero = billions fewer humans. Is climate change a thing?
https://www.climatethemovie.net/
That’s too bad, too late now, Baby now. Pick up a copy of his book he wrote back in 2009. Spelled it all out for us all laypeople and foretold what we are seeing now, only much faster you say. Well, BAU likes s that and bet it’s more efficient to boot. Good for the profit margins and portfolio statements of those that worship such. The ancient Egyptians had their high priests, we have Financial Advisors and Lawyers
>> “Much of the acceleration in warming occurred over the North Pacific & North Atlantic where ship aerosols decreased due to new International Maritime Organization (IMO) fuel regulations.
Okay, so you’re saying we need emissions to prevent global warming?
Exactly. We need coal dust and emissions from sulfur in diesel (or unrefined oil) to provide global dimming. Global dimming is very important to keep climate temperatures down.
The shutdowns in 2020 were one thing that reduced global dimming.
When they talk about geo-engineering, the plan is to add global dimming back.
I have given up on that one, don’t have a clue, temperature is rising, temperature is dropping; chose one or both and consider yourself a weatherman.
Dennis L.
Climate’s ‘Catch-22’: Cutting pollution heats up the planet
By Jake Spring and David Stanway Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/climates-catch-22-cutting-pollution-heats-up-planet-2023-11-02/
November 2, 20237:06 AM EDTUpdated 5 months ago
….They said efforts to improve air quality could actually push the world into catastrophic warming scenarios and irreversible impacts.
“Aerosols are masking one-third of the heating of the planet,” said Paulo Artaxo, an environmental physicist and lead author of the chapter on short-lived climate pollutants in the most recent round of reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), completed this year.
“If you implement technologies to reduce air pollution, this will accelerate – very significantly – global warming in the short term.”
The Chinese and Indian environment ministries didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment on the effects of pollution unmasking.
Professor Guy McPherson has been discussion for some time now.
Yes, well if you want to freak out about catastrophic warming and need a grief counsellor, Prof. McPherson is definitely your man.
He also describes himself as “polyamorous,” which is a plus for some people, although personally I’d lock up my daughters if he was in town.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fba789982-64b5-458d-9458-877dba999de1_950x876.jpeg
thereya go Tim
https://rumble.com/v4ls8n2-bridge-of-lies-no-way-fsk-bridge-taken-out-by-barge-and-did-rfk-jr-just-han.html
I don’t trust Hansen, given his financial misbehaviour. But regardless of scientists’ moral codes, the shift from HFO->diesel in shipping is still set to raise the surface temperature.
Has any government meteorological body yet acknowledged the effect of the January 2002 undersea volcanic eruption? It was expected to raise world temperature for a year or two. Summer 2022 was very warm in the UK. June 2023 was very warm, but July and August 2023 were wet and cool.
Perhaps people should suggest to Nate Hagens that he interviews Amory Lovins (now aged 75 or so) to review what went right and what went wrong over the past 45 years and what the prospects now are.
Yes, Hunga Tonga. Well, the details of how that has changed the climate are not all in yet, but mentioning it doesn’t suit the agenda, does it?
If it turns out that a one-day volcanic eruption has offset all of the past 30 year’s efforts the world has made to stop global warming, that WOULD be embarrassing, wouldn’t it?
Worryworts like Norman, Mike Jones, the Goracle, James Hansen, Greta, and the Polyamorous Prophet, along with everyone who bought a Tesla and stuck solar panels on their roof in order to save the Earth, would have to concede that they needn’t have bothered.
If it turns out that sudden and substantial climate change frequently affects the biosphere in any case, what’s the point of trying to minimize human impact on the climate?
Watching Lex Fridman, Mark Cuban. #422.
kul, what do you see here? Mark was the product of a working class father, one eye. Yet, billionaire, very talented. Please note, I do not agree with him on many aspects, yet his ideas worked very well.
He was not a Type I civilization type.
I am a realist, if it works it is right, if it does not work it is wrong.
Don’t have a dog in this fight. I attempt to understand many points of view, make a guess on what will work and what will not.
Looked up Mark’s wife, met at a fitness center. She is very good looking, replication, this is not Type I you seem to mention. They are going to have very good looking children with many opportunities, Type I would guess. Note, the universe loves replication.
I learn from you guys. Your thoughts?
Dennis L.
First of all Cuban is from the Tribe. Not a regular redneck which is harder to find in MN since it is colder so people do need some intelligence to survive.
Second he got lucky during the infancy of computer industry and had exactly one jackpot, in the 1990s. He knew his limitations, and became a landowner, owning Dallas Mavericks, which he sold to a fellow Tribe member Miriam Adelson, wife of casino magnate Sheldon Adelson.
Third, I don’t know how you define ‘talented’. For me, few people are talented. For example Henry Oswald Moseley was talented since he was irreplaceable. Srivinasa Ramanujan was NOT talented; he never learned how to do proofs, crediting everything to some Hindu goddess who gave him answers, which is like saying he pulled the formulas from his behind.
You seem to call everyone who has money as being talented. People like Cuban are not that essential for civilization and I don’t consider him talented. They are like gnats feeding on a cow’s back.
And I don’t listen to Lex Fridman’s informercials. He seems to enjoy the money given to him by those who have too much money and too much time. They are sometimes interesting to listen to, but after a while they get old.
kul,
It is a remarkable story, his father worked extremely hard and made the journey from Russia, mom from Romania. Mark claims to have sold trash bags door to door as a first job. His birth date was in 1958, assume his parents were >20 this implies they left eastern Europe in the 1930’s, they chose a good time to leave and had the courage to do so.
In the middle seventies read among others two books, LTG by Meadows(mentioned I sat next to him in Boston, maybe DC) and “The Intelligent Investor” by Ben Grahm as I recall. LTG was wrong for over fifty years, we, humans, found work arounds. Warren did very well off Grahm.
We have a man, Musk along with others unknown shooting billions of dollars into space with a huge space ship. They launch more satellites than all others combined, yet here they a scoffed. Why?
AI will not work on earth, not enough energy, learned that on OFW. It will work in space, plenty of energy from the sun and cooling is trivial. That is an easy load for Starship. Problem solved, only information returned to earth. Interesting metaphor, information from the heavens, perhaps a few lighting bolts and thunderclaps? Thinking photons to electrons and back to photons carrying information. Cool!
Not here to argue, here to learn. I fail to understand all the negativism. My personal experience is optimism finds solutions, the universe wants us to find solutions. Going to MREA again this summer, like the bar attached to the Holiday Inn. It is sort of a hippy folk gathering and, they have electrical chargers for autos. Wow, that is so cool! So what if they don’t work, the one’s with Pt and H will be great.
Dennis L.
None of the techs Musk is using is new. Already there by 1970s. He is not breaking any new grounds.
AI might work in a parallel universe without limits. Space is virtually empty, with huge distances from here and there. I think your idea of universe came from Star Trek , which is just a Western series with spacesuits.
You fail to understand the negatives because you are full of delusions, like Don Quixote who charged into the windmill. I would leave you alone if this blog were not a blog to discuss limits but since you are influencing this blog in a negative way I am commenting on your posts.
You are welcome and I look forward to your comments.
Can’t resist, “In the beginning, God created the heavens and the earth. …Then God said, “Let there be light,” and there was light. God saw that the light was good, and He separated the light from the darkness.”
Kul, this sounds an awful lot like the big bang. From what I see, the big bang’s origin is poorly understood to be generous.
I was at Madison, mathematics major and tons of chemistry, biology and physics. Sort of been around the block. Came back to my roots, it seems there is something greater than ourselves and this is very stressful for those who are totally into humanism.
It is a journey, not a narrative trying to convince others so as to validate a personal belief.
I agree, there are limits …. on earth. There will be limits in the solar system, but it will take a few years to reach them I think.
Starship 4 goes up in say six weeks, film at eleven.
Dennis L.
dennis
as ive said all along, your intellect is not in question
but i use Hawking as an intellectual baseline:
“humankind will find other planets to colonise”—etc etc.
On the assumption that we will just discover other planets conducive to human life, but there will be not other conflicting lifeforms there to dispute our prospective tenure.
Which makes Hawking the cleverest idiot on the planet
My undertstanding is that Mark Cuban made his fortune selling a sports network. While I was a 12 sport varsity in highschool, played college football, was all New England Champion college wrestler at 177, Captain of my team, Mr U of Louisville during med school, Mr Tri State etc., I now realize it was a complete waste time and energy that could have been devoted to better things.
Sports. The gentler equivalent of gladiatorial combat, especially with the agressiveness, particularly in pro football, and with several players I have trained with in the gym with (Jeff VanNote Center of Atlantic Falcons, Craig Wolfley OG of the Pittsburg Steelers, and Scott Perry, S, of the Cincinnati Bengals who was my college teammate.) They all hated pro football but it paid the bills. Jeff Van Note, would come into the downtown YMCA in Louisville just hating the thought of having to work out to protect his job. At the time, he was the oldest man in pro football.
A derivation of sports is the perversion of the music industry, controlled by corporations as to what the people shall listen to. More subversion of our culture. Need I say more about Rap music? Gang and gun violence, drugs, prostitution, whores, rape, and on the palatable side, the programmed, synthesized teleprompted music of corporate musicians like Taylor Swift, although I have never heard a single song of hers.
Then there are the video games of which I have never played, again quite basically promoting violence. I really was appalled that my older brother, a mechanical engineer who worked on transmissions with Ford years ago, would spend hours playing a videogame called “Doom.”He has been totally sedentary, never wore a jock strap in his life. I forget the name of the more popular one today- I think it is “Grand Theft Auto” or “Mortal Combat?” And then I think of all the wasted money spent on my arms and ammo I have acquyired since 1994. I never even had a BB gun until things went south for me back in 1994 as far as my career and the same year Clinton’s Gun ban went into effect. I don’t and never have hunted either.
Against this back ground, I realize that whether it is in investing, working , or socializing with people in society, it is not what I think, it is what everyone else thinks. I am irrelevant. The problem is, the vast majority of people are, indeed as Mr Fast E has stated, morons and essentially parasites. But get ready for this stretch in my reasoning: with the establishment of a central bank (FED) and legalized fractional reserve fiat currency debt issuance by banks (FED accomplices) , i.e. lending money created out of thin air and from those loans collecting unearned interest, there is “money” to fund the free lunch promises that politicians, now errand boys and girls of the corporatocracy make to assure their re election and that the concentration of wealth continues. A pure “democracy” assures our self destruction when it is backstopped with unlimited “money” (ability to create debt). A pure Democracy is the great enabler of parasites as a 51% majority can vote themselves handouts from the 49% productive minority.
In a nut shell, people like Cuban are able to harvest this unearned discretionary income from the vast numbers of idle minds, useless ganster rappers, six pack drinking, fat, lazy, dumb, spoiled sports enthusiasts, just as these rappers like what’s his name “Puff Daddy” get wealthy because they are supported by a whole section of the population that is in turn being supported by government handouts, drug sales, pimping etc. As the saying goes, follow the money, just as with “green energy,” follow the energy and money pedigree.
If I were the typical American, there would be no professional sports or at least these any of these athtletes who command multimillion dollar salaries because, in my opinion, the amount of unearned and voted income from wide swathes of the population would not exist to support them, or the ownmers of the teams who get voters to build them huge stadiums largely at taxpayer expense. Pro athletes years ago made nowhere near the astronomical salaries they do today. Why is that? And then the spillover into endorsements where the dumb sheep masses are willing to fork over $100 dollars for a pair of Nike shoes, or sometimes even rob, mug or kill a victim for them.
But the core again is the creation of a debt based fractional reserve central bank system that has allowed these wild distortions to occur and a dumb a-hole like Cuban to make a fortune. But I guess when you compare his success with my failures, I am the dumb one when you think about it.
Hubbs,
According to him he made it in computers, selling networking. Tried Novelle in the 80’s, it was a bi…..
Were I to guess on the waste to which you refer, there is a given scale which is necessary to make things work. Guess only.
Dennis L.
For him if one is a celebrity he/she is talented
I have a much more strict definition of being ‘talented’. Only a few would qualify.
All the changes you are complaining about happened after World War 2 and especially after 1965.
Was watching celebrity news (news for the modern woman who is concerned with status (fairness) of others and noted there was yet another historically inaccurate ww2 movie where one of the cast members reminded the viewer the ww2 was a “wild time” and a crazy time.
Maybe the sensualist entertainment and the monetary system and other things are just there to keep the current world order intact. . Prisons and capital punishment are too unpopular tools to keep people in line . People cut off from the sensual diversions of the service economy (a term used to describe the current global monetary system upheld by the U.S. dollar) might cause problems. Can you imagine the violence and social unrest that would occur if consumerism and pop culture were reduced? All the military tech in the world wouldn’t stop the hordes of women with professional careers denied a meaningful existence from laying waste to everything. A generous welfare state and a service economy is a small price to pay for world peace.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFvFXTVEMm0
second half of video shows how the ship was maneuvered to hit the support pier
Strange. I noticed ship’s lights were on, before it hit the bridge. It must have had some power.
i know nothing about ships
but the llights must be based on an ultimate backup power system, for every aspect of safety
But the lights did go off, and then came back on again. That is evident from videos of the event.
I wasn’t in the engine room and so can’t verify what happened there, but I assume the engine power and rudder control were cut at the same time as the lights.
Ultimate backup power system or not, the power went off on that ship.
Cutting the power at just the right time would have had the effect of maneuvering the ship to hit the bridge. The current in the waterway would have seen to that.
So, I think we can cross Norman off our list of suspects. The miscreants obviously knew something about ships.
tim
i know there were CIA agents disguised as Mexicans, disguised as maintenance workers who had been preparing that bridge for demolition for the past 6 months—that explains the hologram of the ship crashing into it.
but
if youve ever been in a building were the power fails, the main lights go out, and the emergency backup kicks in in a second or two.
Any time now, youll be telling me there were puffs of smoke emanating from the bridge supports.
serious eyerolling time i think.
Can’t handle all these conspiracies Norm, time for a walk, sunlight is good for a person.
Dennis L.
Those eyes are rolling a lot these days, aren’t they, Norman?
This morning I was reading Naomi Klein’s latest essay about her trip to Holland. Among other people, she met Karel Van Wolfren, who is best known for his late-1980s tome The Enigma of Japanese Power—a 400+ page lament on how the Japanese “system” crushes individuality and molds people into being servants of the system, in stark contrast to the freedom, democracy, justice and human rights we cherish the West.
One hopes, Karel has finally woken up to the reality of the individual-crushing and molding system in Europe too, now that it is becoming increasingly difficult for people to move or breathe there.
Naomi wrote: I realized that America — or many Americans — and Europe, or many Europeans — are at different points in Elizabeth Kubler-Ross’ famous five stages of grief. The Dutch with whom I shared the information in the Pfizer documents, were struggling with “denial” and moving into “depression”; while I and many others who had heard the reports on WarRoom and elsewhere, had already crossed that Rubicon, and lived sadly in the final stage of “acceptance.”
On that scale, Norman, my guess is that you are still stuck in denial, although not uncomfortably stuck, and even struggling with it. Rather, you seem to be willfully ignorant and comfortably numb. And good on you; that’s one way to get through life.
I think that is more likely to have been Naomi Wolf, not Naomi Klein.
Yes, Mike. Thanks for the correction.
It’s so easy to get those two Naomi’s mixed up. Apparently, even Naomi Klein has trouble telling them apart.
It became something of an obsession with her. She even took time off campaigning to stop climate change and get everybody vaccinated against COVID-19 in order to write and publish an entire book about that.
According to the videos posted below back up power takes some 40 seconds to kick in. at 9 knots, that is 200 meters. Also there is a channel in the harbor to the left of the video. with the outgoing tide there will be a force on that side of the ship.
it was CIA agents, disguised as Mexicans, disguised as Guatemalans, disguised as maintenance men, setting up holograms, lighting smoke bombs at the base of the supports
(just keeping eddys soapbox warm till the aliens release him)
Interesting!
This is willful ignorance on Norman’s part. He doesn’t know a thing about what went on, doesn’t want to know, doesn’t feel any urge to investigate or learn about it, and at the same time can’t resist making fun of anyone more curious or knowledgeable than himself.
Get him on a good day on the subject of steam engines or the Yorkshire coal fields in the 19th century, and he is University Challenge contestant material. But on most other subjects, he would be lucky to qualify for Intellectually Challenged.
It seems even if the ship had the two electrical failures, or the wrong fuel with an engine outage, why did it suddenly turn at the last minute into the pillar regardless whether it had power or not? I would have thought that by doing nothing it would have drifted right on past the pillar. For the “conspiracy theorists” out there, it almost seems like they had not aimed the ship correctly for the intentional collision ahead of time and had to make a JFK like last minute “adjustment” to get the desired result.
are you sure the ship wasn’t a hologram—like the WTC planes?
Hubbs,
An “engineer” who claimed to work in engine rooms of large ships reported backing a ship with a large propeller causes it work like a paddle wheel. Propeller turns counterclockwise backing, paddle wheel effect moves stern of the ship to the left and bow to the right(port and starboard if one insists). I expect one uses the rudder to counteract this.
Low sulfur diesel is used in port, switch to regular bunker when out of port. During changeover perhaps there was a glitch. I don’t have the link for this one, sorry.
Generally incompetence explains more screw ups than conspiracy theories. This is a report, YouTube, I know nothing about steering large ships, tough enough a small outboard.
Dennis L.
Oh and I forgot. What about the two minutes missing on the black box during those critical two minutes? Shades of Epstein’s prison surveillance.
The lights went off twice. Yes, they came back when the ship is about half a ship length away from the pylon. This guy seems reliable and he has posted three videos about timeline, but I had already seen that in the zerohedge video.
https://www.youtube.com/@wgowshipping/videos
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/03/29/tech/amazondata-centers-ai-boom/
“Right now it’s just a mad scramble for any place that has power any time soon,” said Charles Fitzgerald, a former Microsoft manager and Seattle-based investor who tracks cloud company spending.
More, more,more say the AI.
Everything is limited by available amount of energy
The universe?
Dennis L,.
“Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.”
– Pablo Picasso
Today’s AI often gives absurd answers. It doesn’t work well.
When you put that with the lack of electricity to power the data-centers, it is pretty clear that ramping up AI at scale is doomed to failure.
AI is the answer to the question no one asked. The only way it works if it will be tasked with making very unpopular decisions in the future the ruling class is going to want to shy away from being responsible for. It’s a technocratic equivalent to divination.
It’s possible that AI is the latest attempt by humans to monetize computers since computers have arguably took away more livelihoods than they have created. So much of AI is “There has got to be a way to make money with this thing. “
Once Starship works, engineering for in space solar panels is well known, put it all in orbit.
Laughing quietly. What if your computer is in space and you have no access to same? Well, could someone just pull the plug and call a discussion about increased rents?
I use fabric of the universe because using the G.. word upsets too many people and associated religions which are human narratives some of which are “divinely” inspired, some of which are convenient narratives for the narrator. Those which have been around for a few thousand years all seem to work more or less; perfection is the enemy of good enough.
It is going to be an interesting world, the universe has a great deal of effort into biology and earth; we will not be allowed to fail.
Dennis L.
” we will not be allowed to fail.”
Someone was born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
I hate to burst your bubble of wealth and comfort, Dennis L. , but only people from elite families are not allowed to fail. They may do well while the plebs around them are starving to death. Human societies periodically fail since humans have been around. Even hunter-gathering societies can run into problems with sustainability.
I am looking at humanity as a whole.
Gave an example of Mark Cuban, his father was dirt poor, upholstered cars in Pittsburg. Mark did all right.
You know the biographies of most famous people are largely fiction, don’t you? Even when they are true, they are outlliers or the case of Cuban the result of a being born into the right race/ethnic group . Even if he had been born 4,000 years ago he would do better than the average A today. Cheap energy isn’t everything.
You don’t still believe Christopher Columbus was the first non-Native American to discover America, do you?
The major pitfall of high-trust societies is that most members mindlessly believe everything they are told by their leaders.
most people alive 4000 years ago took their energy requirements direct from the land it grew on—animal or vegetable…..
our current complex mess grew from our choice to leave that lifestyle behind, and create the lifestyle we have now…..
which is ultimately unsustainable, because most of us take more from the land than the land can supply…we are putting our grandchildren’s future in hock.
“our choice to leave that lifestyle behind”
We had no choice. Malthus explained the problem back in 1799. Population kept rising faster than food availability.
i was speaking rhetorically
increasing population demands an increase of everything else—but in our current system, ”everything” must go on forever.
it cannot slow, stop or reverse.
we have a system that converts energy into wages with the use of (finite) raw materials…..and that is all we have, irrespective of its seeming complexity.
we do not, and never will, possess the means to go into space to get even more raw material.
our system just doesn’t work like that.
Still no interview with the two pilots of the crashed ship in Baltimore.
Good point. They might say something suggesting some outside influence in the crash. Perhaps who intentionally put the wrong fuel in the diesel tank of the ship.
has it been verified that in that location, US pilots would have taken over the control of the ship?