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Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed.
Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Ordinary working citizens start to say, “Wait a minute, there is not enough left for my everyday expenses. The system needs to change.” Elections lead to the selection of politicians who want war, or who want to overturn the current system. The system then changes in a way that leads to less spending on healthcare and other complexities.
In this post, I will try to explain a bit of the underlying problem and give some hints at what the simplification might look like. Part of the problem is too little energy supply. This is a problem that cannot be told to the public; it would be too distressing. In this post, I present the result of a recent academic study that has attempted to recalibrate the findings of the 1972 Limits to Growth study with updated data.
[1] Economies of all types tend to operate in cycles.
Economies need both resources and human participants. Human populations tend to increase in number if conditions are favorable. When population grows, resources per capita, such as arable land and fresh water, tends to fall. Adding complexity helps an economy work around falling resources per capita.
With added complexity, it is possible for resource extraction of many kinds to grow, at least for a time. Deeper wells can sometimes add more fresh water supply. Irrigation and fertilizer can be used to increase crop yields. International trade allows the possibility of getting resources from more distant lands. Adding debt allows factories to be built and to be paid for “after the fact,” using the sales of the goods produced by the factories. Ever-larger governments allow more roads, schools, and services of all kinds.
The use of added complexity helps keep economies growing for a long time, but at some point, things start going wrong. Oil wells and other types of resource extraction become more expensive to build because the easiest to extract resources tend to be used first. Pollution becomes more of a problem. Universities start producing more graduates with advanced degrees than there are job openings paying enough to justify studying for those degrees. Healthcare costs become hugely expensive. Increasing interest on debt becomes a huge burden, both for governments and individual citizens.
When added complexity reaches a limit, citizens sense a problem. They tend to vote the current governments out of power. Or they become rebellious in other ways. I think the world has already reached a complexity limit.
[2] At some point, the added complexity trend needs to shift toward simplification.
When added complexity no longer has sufficient payback, the system seems to sense this and starts pushing economies in the opposite direction. Often, the wages of ordinary workers become too low, relative to the cost of living. They rebel and overthrow their governments. Or central governments may collapse, as the central government of the Soviet Union did in 1991. This happened after oil prices were low for an extended period. The Soviet Union was an oil exporter, depending on oil exports for tax revenue. Revenue from collectivized agriculture was underperforming, also. Thus, getting rid of a layer of government, or too many government programs, seems to be one common theme of simplification.
Another issue today is international trade. Crude oil supplies per capita are low. Somehow, international trade (which uses crude oil) needs to be cut back.
With inadequate total oil supplies available, it becomes very desirable to do manufacturing close to home, rather than at a distance. This is a major reason for the competition in manufacturing between the US and China. If the US can manufacture locally, it will provide jobs and save some of the limited world crude oil supply.
Another issue is the oversupply of workers with advanced degrees, relative to the number of jobs requiring such degrees. A study released in early 2024 indicates that only about half of US college graduates are able to obtain a job requiring a college level degree within a year of graduation. In fact, the majority of those who cannot obtain a job requiring a college-level degree within a year after graduation remain underemployed 10 years after graduation. Pretty clearly, the number of college graduates needs to fall.
I showed in Figure 1 that US healthcare costs are very high, but they have recently been on a plateau. Perhaps these high healthcare expenses might make sense if US life expectancies were longer than elsewhere, thanks to all this spending. In fact, US life expectancy at birth is lower than in any other advanced nation. The CIA Factbook ranks the US life expectancy as 49th from the top in 2024.
Figure 3 (above) shows a chart I found several years ago, showing how US female life expectancy has been dropping, relative to other high-income countries.
Figure 4 shows that US life expectancies have continued to fall relative to other advanced economies. Something is clearly going wrong with health in the United States. It is no wonder that Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. wants to “Make America Healthy Again.”
There is also the question of the level of US healthcare spending, relative to GDP. The share for the US, from Figure 1, is about 17%. The shares for the EU, the UK, and Japan are each about 11% according to the World Bank. The share for Russia is about 7%; for China it is about 5%.
Another issue mentioned in the introduction is the proportion of government spending that goes toward non-working individuals. The chart below shows how US Federal Government funds are spent. When the budget is prepared, often many of these programs are lumped together as “Mandatory Spending,” so we don’t see precisely what the spending is for.
Typically, the arguments about spending are on the parts of the budget other than mandatory spending. The problem is that all parts need to be funded, one way or another. Social Security describes its program as largely pay as you go. Mostly, the payroll taxes collected from today’s workers are used to pay benefits to today’s recipients.
Keeping the system working as it does today becomes a problem if the total amount of goods and services produced starts falling at some point. For example, if the total food supply at some point (say 2050) becomes too low, there is a question regarding which citizens should get inadequate food rations: the workers, or those receiving benefits under a pension program for the elderly. I would vote for the workers getting adequate food, if we expect them to continue to work. This issue suggests that at some point, the elderly may have to go back to work to get an adequate share of what is being produced.
[3] I see the results of the recent US presidential election to be a call for simplification: getting rid of the unneeded pieces of the system.
Donald Trump and his team clearly have a much different view of how the government should be operated than Joe Biden did. In particular, the new team would like to get rid of what they see as unneeded parts of the system.
There seem to be many other parts of the world encountering somewhat similar political and funding difficulties. Germany is dealing with a collapse of government. France is facing political and budget crises. Even China’s economy is having huge difficulties.
[4] I see the underlying problem as not enough resources, especially energy resources, for the rising world population.
It is not only oil that is in short supply (Figure 2); coal is also in short supply, relative to world’s population (Figure 6).
Uranium is in short supply, as well. The issue for uranium is that the world’s supply of nuclear warheads that could temporarily serve as a supplement to currently mined uranium is running short. These warheads belonged primarily to the US and to Russia, but Russia has sold a substantial amount of its warheads to the US, to be down-blended for use in nuclear power reactors.
Without enough energy resources per person, the world will likely need to produce fewer goods and services in total. Some uses for energy products, and for the goods and services that can be made with energy products, need to disappear.
Now, all parts of the world need to re-examine energy uses that are currently being made and look for uses that the economy can most easily get along without. For example, the step-down in oil consumption per capita that occurred in 2020 seems to be still having some effect. Some people are still working from home, saving oil that would be used for commuting. Some long-distance airline flights were eliminated, as well, particularly in Asia, reducing jet fuel consumption.
The self-organizing economy tends to push the world in the direction of contraction. How this will work is not at all clear. Most people didn’t understand the response to Covid-19 as a way to cut back oil consumption. It is possible that future changes will, to some extent, come from cutbacks directed by government organizations that are as difficult to understand as the Covid-19 restrictions.
[5] The book The Limits to Growth, published in 1972, modeled when world resources would run short, relative to growing world population. A recent analysis provides updated estimates, using the same model.
The original 1972 analysis, in its base model, suggested that resources would start to run short about now. An article called, “Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model” by Arjuna Nebel and others was published earlier this year in the Journal of Industrial Ecology. The summary exhibit of their findings is shown here as Figure 8.
On Figure 8, Recalibration23 is the name given to the new model output. The BAU dotted line shows the indications from the base (business as usual) 1972 model. I found the coloring a little confusing, so I added the labels “Industrial Output” and “Population” to better mark what I consider the two most important model outputs. Food Production per capita is the green line, which is also important. The calculations are all made in terms of the weight of physical quantities of materials used, for the world as a whole. The financial system is not modeled.
We do not know how accurate a forecast such as this is. I know that Dennis Meadows, who was the leader of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, has said that once peak was reached, we could not expect the model to necessarily hold.
Even with this caveat, I find this forecast disturbing. Industrial output per capita (which would include things like automobiles, farm machinery, and computers) is shown as already steeply declining by 2025 in the updated model. This trend is much clearer than in the 1972 model. By 2050, industrial output per capita is a small fraction of the amount it was at peak.
Food output per capita is shown to start dropping about 2025. Based on my understanding of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis, this change might reflect a shift away from meat-eating, rather than simply fewer total calories per person.
World population follows a curve similar to that of the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis with a peak in world population at perhaps about 2030.
In the updated model, pollution has been modeled as CO2 levels. This is different from the mix of pollutants used in the original model. The peak comes around 2090.
[6] Intuitively, the order of forecast changes for the world economy, shown in Figure 8, seems right to me.
Figure 8 indicates that world industrial production is expected to be the first type of output to drop. This makes sense if energy supply is quite limited or is high-priced. Without adequate inexpensive energy supply, a country is likely to cut back on manufacturing its own goods. Instead, it tries to buy from countries with less expensive sources of energy supply.
For example, US industrial production per capita has been falling since 1973. The year 1973 was the year when oil prices first spiked. US business leaders realized that changes were needed: A larger share of manufactured goods needed to be imported from countries with lower-cost fuel supply. Oil needed to be used sparingly because of its high cost. Coal, used heavily in Asia, was typically much cheaper.
China took the lead in industrial production after it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, but now it is running into obstacles. One issue is that China’s contribution to the world’s supply of goods is taking away high-paying jobs from other countries. Other countries are left with more low-paying service jobs. A second issue is that the US has become dependent upon China for critical materials, such as those used in military armaments. A third issue is that a great deal of China’s growth was financed by debt. As long as China’s exports were growing very rapidly, this was not a problem. But as growth has slowed, China’s debt has become difficult to repay with interest.
The level of conflict between China and other countries has grown, in part because it has become clear that it is not possible for industry to grow rapidly both in China and elsewhere, indirectly because of fossil fuel and uranium limits. The US applies sanctions against some Chinese companies and China retaliates by hoarding scarce resources. These include minerals such as antimony, tungsten, gallium, germanium, graphite, and magnesium.
The world is increasingly operating in a “not enough to go around” mode for scarce resources. At the same time, countries need to somewhat get along. So we get strange narratives in the press giving rationalizations for actions by both sides, without mentioning the shortage issue.
Figure 8 shows that once industrialization drops, food production also begins to fall, but not as quickly. This makes sense because everyone recognizes that food is essential. The falling calories likely reflect people increasingly moving from meat to vegetable products.
Somehow, world population becomes poorer, but the level of population does not drop nearly as rapidly as the drop in industrialization.
[7] Simplification is likely to take place in significant steps, perhaps at the time of strange events, such as those occurring in 2020.
These are a few ways simplification might take place:
[a] High level government organizations might start disappearing. For example, the European Union might not get enough funding and would stop. Or something similar could happen to the International Monetary Fund or the World Trade Organization.
[b] Programs that we expect to be funded by the US Federal Government might be handed over completely to the states, to be funded or not, as the finances of individual states permit. Examples might include Medicare, Medicaid, and even Social Security.
[c] There could be major banking problems, perhaps simultaneously in many countries around the world. The debt bubble holding up stock markets could pop. Governments would try to compensate, but they might not be able to do enough. Or governments could inadvertently create hyperinflation if there is virtually nothing to buy with the newly printed money created to offset widespread bank failures.
[d] There could be a great deal more sharing of homes and of apartments. The current arrangement of many single people living alone, either in an apartment or a stand-alone house could be replaced by many more roommate situations. Multi-generational families living together may become more common.
[e] Healthcare may become much simpler and local. Instead of seeing an array of specialists at a distance, people may walk to a local health provider. Medications from around the world are likely to drop greatly in quantity. Government programs to care for the seriously disabled elderly seem likely to be scaled back.
[f] Universities may be slimmed down greatly. There is no point in educating a huge number of individuals who cannot get jobs requiring a university degree.
[g] The huge amount of effort that goes into taking care of lawns in the US may disappear. Instead, people will put more effort into growing crops locally. Some people may choose to raise chickens, as well.
[h] International travel for pleasure will likely disappear, except perhaps for the very rich. Even business trips will become very uncommon. The amount of goods and services transported internationally seems likely to shrink.
[i] Many types of optional activities that now take place by car may be replaced by more local versions, which will be reached by walking, or perhaps by bicycle. For example, visits to restaurants may largely disappear, but eating with nearby friends or relatives in homes may increase. Visits to churches may drop greatly, as they did during Covid-19 restrictions, but they may be replaced by groups meeting in homes. Gyms for recreation may disappear, but people may obtain more exercise from their gardens and their need to walk to appointments.
[j] Very strange political leaders may take office. One person rule takes much less energy than transporting many representatives to a central location. Some of these leaders may take over as dictators.
The BOE is now engaged in open fraud .
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2024/12/09/identities-of-shadow-banks-that-use-new-boe-tool-to-be-secret/
In the US, there is discussion of dissolving (merging?) some of the bank regulatory agencies.
Hide the problems; don’t fix them.
“Hide the problems; don’t fix them.”
Insightful.
Dennis L.
The entire global financial/monetary system is at this point a gigantic, obvious fraud.
A hundred+ $trillion of government debt alone, not a penny of which will ever be re-paid.
Okay, agree.
Given Gail’s graphs, any thoughts on how this will unwind?
Dennis L.
Denise , there is no way to unwind a Ponzi scheme except collapse it . Fasten your seatbelt .
I expect the government will try to keep as much of the banking problem hidden as possible. Change the rules. Don’t tell how bad things are.
What governments would like to do is substitute some new government issued digital bank currency, that governments would completely control, for what people currently have in their bank accounts, and also what they could get from investments. There would likely be huge haircuts given relative to what people have now. In theory, government benefits could be added to these accounts as well. Governments could choose who to reward (workers??) and who to be less generous to.
I am doubtful that such a scheme would work. For one thing, buying imported goods would become a huge problem. For another, a well- functioning electrical system would be needed. For another, wealthy people would not like to see their wealth mostly disappear.
My guess is that instead, major political changes will take place. Europe will lose the EU. The United States will become less United, with perhaps some parts breaking off. New currencies will be issued by the smaller entities. Lots of debts will go unpaid. What is currently the Euro and the US dollar will stop having value. The new smaller political units will figure out that they cannot afford to pay pensions of any significant amount, among other things.
@Gail on quantity of output “They talk about quantity in the tables you can download, say “Production Account Quantity Index Gross Output.” I would think that the quantity varies with the product. “Warehouses and Storage” would have a different measure of quantity than “Educational Services,” for example.”
I think that is industrial output covering almost everything. Manufacturing output is what I was asking about but I guess it doesn’t matter because what I’m confused on is what output means. Industrial Production Index is probably what I’m looking for.
https://www.bea.gov/help/faq/73
“GDP values production in terms of purchasers’ prices, the final prices paid by consumers and by other final-demand sectors. The IPI values production in terms of producers’ prices paid to manufacturers by wholesalers, by retailers, and, in the case of direct sales, by consumers.”
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Revisions/20240628/DefaultRev.htm
“The IP indexes represent the level of real output relative to a base year. At the monthly frequency, movements of the indexes are based on indicators that are derived using industry-specific data from a variety of government and private sources.”
And output itself is inflation-adjusted dollar value not the “physical” volume….?
https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/output-by-major-industry-sector.htm
Unless I’m missing something IPI measures the producer prices part of gdp as opposed to purchaser.
I think you are right. It is hard to value things without using inflation adjusted dollars (or something similar) to measure what is being counted.
Of course, if inflation is measured somewhat off, this would seem to distort the labor productivity growth.
Also, a person can be productive adding unwanted but mandated features to a product. This is how automobiles can get more and more expensive each year, without (until recently) adding much to CPI growth.
Use something other than dollars, e.g. bushels of wheat, corn, etc.
Dennis L.
Before currency, an approach using bushels of the local grain, seems to be what was used in valuing trades, very early, according to David Graeber in Debt: The First 5000 years.
On the strange side–related to last week’s attempted coup in So. Korea:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/south-korean-defense-chief-sent-drones-pyongyang-spark-retaliation-justify-martial-law
About latest western attempts to change regimes or change their attitudes according to western strategies, we can say:
Syria and Romania were succesfull (with different methodologies), North Korea not, Georgia seems not.
By the way, it is hilarious this latest EU support in trying to change Georgia government, with EU willing to make Georgia enter EU, but ther is the little details that Georgia is an Asian Country, located on the east side of Turkije…
😀
Martial Law!
Coming soon to a town near you…
Kainer’s narrative is interesting, haven’t finished it yet, it is consistent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0FQeGjPSc0&t=1428s
Dennis L.
Alex Krainer thinks that maybe we can somehow get permanent peace on the Eurasian continent in the future. I think that without enough resources to go around (in fact, declining amounts per capita), a permanent peace is not impossible.
Does the last line need editing?
Russia signed a deal to export 0.5mbpd of oil to India per day for 10 years. What I want to know is the currency and payment arrangement. Russia got stuck with useless Rupees they couldn’t spend, earlier in the SMO.
https://www.rt.com/india/609276-russia-india-oil-deal/
I suppose currency could be an issue, if India doesn’t have much to sell that Russia wants.
The pricing seems to follow standard indexes, and can be changed:
Yes but what currency is it actually paid in? Better not be dollars unless they want to lose everything again. Better not be rupees or else it’s not actually payment.
No doubt it has to be gold or rubles.
I don’t think Russian leadership would insist on something that sensible. Nabulina probably insisted on dollar accounts.
If Russia were to request payment in Rubles, it would tend to support the value of that beleaguered currency.
Question – does the BLS manufacturing output figure measure value or volume, and what are some reliable sources on this?
I looked on the BLS site. https://www.bls.gov/productivity/tables/
They talk about quantity in the tables you can download, say “Production Account Quantity Index Gross Output.” I would think that the quantity varies with the product. “Warehouses and Storage” would have a different measure of quantity than “Educational Services,” for example.
I notice that for Hospitals and Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, the quantity of output went down in 2020. This would make sense if the measure considered “bed days” or something equivalent. In fact, quite a few quantities of outputs went down in 2020.
Dutch Banks advising people to keep cash at home as “geopolitical threats” worsen
https://nltimes.nl/2024/12/11/banks-advising-people-keep-cash-home-geopolitical-threats-worsen
Keep some cash at home because of cyber attacks, DNB says
“The Dutch central bank (DNB)said on Wednesday that the chance of a cyber attack on important infrastructure is increasing, particularly from Russia. If the digital payment system is disrupted, then people will no longer be able to pay for goods by bank card, or transfer money automatically.
The central bank does not suggest how much cash people should keep at home, but says it will come with more detailed recommendations about the best way to organise your finances if there is a problem with the payment systems in the New Year.
https://www.dutchnews.nl/2024/12/keep-some-cash-at-home-because-of-cyber-attacks-dnb-says/
The world is getting increasingly strange!
But we also have the push the other way. Businesses don’t want to bother with cash. And, we remember when Covid hit. People were afraid they would get Covid from handling the money.
I think that the clown phase of not touching money because of virus is, at last, over.
People know that, in case, can use gloves.
Or alternatively, people know that before putting hands in the the mouth, can wait till hands can be washed (like the situation when one changes a tyre in the street and cannot wash hands immediately afterwards …)
🙂
This one instead shows some of the darker sides of the russian soul (Martyanov sang from the exact same score). Until last week it was Russia heroically coming to the help of a downtrodden populace, this week is all about disparaging them as traitors and cowards. No mention of the fact that they resisted lone the onslaught of an enemy funded and armed by the West, essentailly alone. Nima must have been uncomfortable, and if he had some fortitude he would shorten his list of regular guests. One of the perennial problems with russians is that they never admit to be wrong. It is difficult to keep an audience when most others care about coherence. You can judge for yourself what their coherence level is.
Dmitry Orlov has interesting insights. He says that Assad never wanted to be a dictator; he wanted to be an ophthalmologist. Assad’s family has been studying Russian since 2017. They now are sufficiently fluent in Russian to fit in Moscow.
The countries in the Middle East represent strange combinations of peoples that don’t really fit together well-part of divide and conquer.
Up until 2023, Iran was supplying Syria with cheap oil. Now that has been cut off. That is the underlying problem. (Afraid I haven’t gotten to the end of the video.)
But if someone proposes himself as an analyst,he or she should try to predict the future to some extent. Plus providing a consistent framework for understanding reality. You (Gail) do that in nearly every article. Coming down negatively on people who are currently doing the dying in Syria, after providing a completely different narrative for years, is not acceptable. Just last week we were advised that the situation was under control, the Russians having ramped up the airstrikes. Only a few years ago, we were told that the Russian army would blow through the Ukrainian army in a week.
But even a bad analyst will not trigger me, so long as he or she does not insult the dying. I find them nihilistic and rather shallow.
I think the Russians have done a great job in defanging NATO, making the EU leaders look like the woke morons they are and showing up the US Military for the paper tiger it has become.
Everyone makes mistakes. In this case, the Russians mistakenly thought the Syrian Army was interested in defending its country.
In fact No, they had sold out to a higher bidder.
So Yes, the Russians are pissed off at the wasted time and effort over the last 10 years or so.
In this case the sanctions did work, plus the US was stealing Syria’s oil, so Syria was broke and it looks like Assad himself gave up.
Note the use of proxies by Turkey and the US. Proxies and bombing is about all the US has left. Still enough to cause a lot of trouble unfortunately.
The question now is which dumb, brainwashed US proxy steps forward next – South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines?
In case you are right drb, I definitely prefer at 100% Dmitry Orlov’s propaganda than the bulls##t coming out from European analysts’ mouths, to not mention the Italian ones.
People that tried to kill their own citizens saying that they will be saved, should only hide themselves.
The fact is that there is no difference now. John Helmer describes the situation well, as he often does.
https://johnhelmer.net/the-new-time-of-troubles-part-ii-putin-overruled-the-general-staff/
https://johnhelmer.net/the-kremlins-oprichniki-versus-the-general-staffs-prigozhniki-in-the-new-time-of-troubles/
Drb, from what you have been writing on this blog, I’ve understood that you must truly love Russia, but it is also easy to understand that you are critic of the current Russian leadership.
But, in my opinion, if one now wants that the current Russian leadership will fail, it means that, in the current bloody war scenario, one will obtain only the disgregation of Russia, probably not much different than Siria.
So, I think that if one really loves Russia, may want a change of leadrship, but later, not now.
Now it is time for supporting it.
Because, a change now, it will mean that you and all your Russians fellow citizens will be under US and EU feet for an extremely long time in the future.
For me that is pretty the same, not being Russian.
I just tell you from an external side.
Of course I do not want the partitioning of Russia. But I have posted repeatedly about the Russian elite’s divided loyalty on one hand. On the other, this betrayal of the Syrians looks suspiciously like many Western betrayals (and it is due, perhaps, by having actors of the same ethnicity). Replete with minions spewing racism if you managed to listen to that video, and the army and civil government at serious odds.
What is missing for me here it is that, contrary to what media are saying, the real winner is Qatar.
Qatar is a gas exporting Country with which Russia doesn’t want to fight against.
If Syrian leadership gave up, for whom Russian soldiers should have died for?
I think that the current conglomerate of Syria may become something like the current Afghanistan, but with mainly Qatar behind the new Syria.
And additionally Syria with current bounderies on the map like now, it is very difficult that will exist in the future.
Erdogan is the only one that western media can blame, because they cannot mention Qatar, as western Countries (expecially EU) have to kneel down to Qatar.
Erdogan doesn’t give any order to HTS and HTS doesn’t even listen to what Erdogan says.
I have never forgotten what the Russians did to my ancestral estate even though I was not born at that time.
Trusting Russians is a no-no.
An interesting discussion between two old communist chews (Nima was completely ignored). Not because of what was said but how opposite the points of view were, and how much they focused on internal US contradictions (granted, to discuss possible american collapse). I am more like Hudson and Ravi is more like Wolff.
I have njo idea why that video popped up. Here should be the correct one.
This video is called, “Richard D. Wolff & Michael Hudson: The Desperation of America’s Empire at Its Peak!”
This second version starts very near the end. It talks about trying to have wars going on in several parts of the world being almost impossible. Europe is now discovering that it really needs cheap energy, and it has grown to expect help and protection from the US. What will it do if this goes away?
Came across this in original, this is from Copilot.”
“Recent studies have shown that electric vehicle (EV) batteries are lasting much longer than previously expected. Researchers from Stanford University and the SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory found that real-world driving conditions, such as frequent acceleration, braking, and periods of rest, actually help batteries last longer than the constant discharge and recharge cycles typically used in lab tests2. This means that EV batteries could last up to 40% longer than initially thought”
I wonder if EV’s can be made to be disassembled, sort of like MUSK only simpler. Forget about repairing, recycle the whole car where practical.
MREA has charging stations at its campus, if autos were charged on site, during day at work with solar the car’s solve part of the intermittence issues.
The auto industry is important to our society; work gives meaning to life.
Demographics is one of our largest problems, SS and Medicare head the list in the US. Perhaps after a pull date, nature is allowed to take its course. We are biology and biology is both emergent and self limiting. That is not an attractive political narrative.
Dennis L.
Perhaps some partial solutions will be found. The tariffs give some protection against foreign competition.
Ivan , drb .
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/12/12/russia-nears-deal-with-new-syria-leaders-to-keep-military-bases/
I think it’s still too early to draw conclusions about whether the bases can stay. If the region is unstable, it could be an opportunity for US-backed groups to take pot-shots at the bases.
Agree. Who is paying the salaries there?
Alt-media says Turkey, USA, Israel, but who knows.
The US backing groups to take pot shots at Russian bases in Syria is not a good idea. Nothing good could come from that.
Often the way the world seems to work.
Maybe not a good idea, but US is using US personnel to hit Russia proper with ATACMS. Pot shots in Africa or Middle East would be deescalation 🙂
Deescalation is good!
Gail,
Is there a date for the peak of industrial output on your graph? I have not confirmed recently but this graph seems to imply a 25% decrease in 2025. Am I reading this correctly?
If this is correct, the DJI among others seems to have some adjusting to do.
Dennis L.
The only dates and amounts are the ones we can figure out from looking at the graphs. Notice that the vertical lines are at 2000 and 2025. The drop in industrial production (or really, industrial production per capita) seems to start a little before 2025, say 2020. The drop we see by the end of 2025 is thus the cumulative drop from 2020 to 2025, not making it as bad.
We know that the manufacturing of private passenger automobiles hit a peak, and is declining. The manufacturing of personal computers did too. So did cell phones. On a world per capita basis, the decline is worse. In the US, the building of new single homes hit a peak in 2005. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUSTPFST1FQ
I haven’t looked at road building, but it has been scaled back as well, especially outside of China. Back in 2008, there were stories about road reverting to gravel. We don’t see all of the shifts away from fossil fuel use going on. Things like road building would likely be part of industrial output.
We are using more fossil fuels now, but they are being used to make big batteries and electricity transmission lines. More of our resources are going into making the fossil fuel/electricity system operate.
Is the raw data available? Ie. the data used to make the graphs?
Dennis L.
I gave a link to the report itself in the article.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jiec.13442
The article gives a tab at the bottom with a link to supplemental material. One of the pieces of supplemental information is an Excel table of the output values of their Figure 3, which is my Figure 8. (Perhaps I should have looked for this earlier! It didn’t occur to me.)
With the year-by-year data, turning points are as follows:
Peak industrial output (total, not per capita) = 2018
Peak population – 2028
Peak industrial output per capita (calculated from data given) – 2017
The data given suggest that industrial output (total) is expected to fall by 3.7% in 2024 and 5.0% in 2025. (Per capita industrial output falls a bit more than this.)
I assume this is world wide, 5% is a great deal, China is the largest manufacture so assuming the 5% is spread evenly across all major manufactures then they fall the most and the most people are affected.
If my math is correct, the percentage change in 2025 is 26%, 1.3/3.7.
Wow, that seems like a lot and an incredible amount of sunk costs generate zero ROI which implies they have salvage value only. The slope of the curve is negative for the foreseeable future.
China seems to be having employment problems right now, if they increase in 2025 then that is evidence the model is correct.
This implies China with the greatest amount of industrial investment will have a very large percentage loss of wealth. If one back follows this to oil, decreased production and associated usage with production in consumer hands implies a decrease in the price of oil.
Place your bets.
Dennis L.
If you have Excel, download the numbers yourself and look at them. They are the figures or Exhibit 3.
I think you must be understanding what I am saying wrong. The percentage change during 2025 is the one I gave you, 5.0%. This really means that the 2024 industrial output needs to be multiplied by .95. You can see the actual numbers on the Figure 3 output from the Excel exhibit.
Remember, the drop you are seeing on the printed chart is from 2018 to 2025, not a one-year drop. The 2025 amount is .897 times the 2018 amount.
This changes are worldwide percentages. It is no wonder that countries are fighting about which country gets more of a cutback than 5%, and which get less.
Some of the fall in production is reasonable. Consider light bulbs. Incandescent light bulbs lasted 2000 hours. LED bulbs last 50,000 so to keep the sockets full, it takes 25 times fewer.
Reasonable. At present my concern is how all this goes economically, with such large numbers details are lost and not important. Exception: you are one of the details.
Dennis L.
“how all this goes economically, ”
Yes, it is tricky. We have been talking about electric car batteries recently. It is a good thing or a bad thing that car batteries last longer than expected? The customer gets a better deal because the car last longer, but we make fewer replacement cars which cuts into industrial production and jobs.
Usually, people will just replace the battery, not the car. The average age of cars on the road in the US today is 12.6 years.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a60882953/average-age-us-cars-trucks-suvs-rises/
A well maintained US car can get 200,000 miles. Some articles talk about a few cars getting 1 million miles.
I am reading it as 4% down in 2025.
The collapse of oil production is at our door . Quark in Spain . Use translate .
https://futurocienciaficcionymatrix.blogspot.com/2024/12/el-colapso-en-la-produccion-de-petroleo.html
Not so fast!
Experts Warn of Bird Flu Pandemic as Signals of Mutation Mount
“Mammals that ate the infected birds, such as seals, have also experienced mass-die offs.
Meg Schaeffer, an epidemiologist at the US-based SAS Institute, told AFP there were now several factors suggesting that “avian flu is knocking on our door and could start a new pandemic any day”.
“A bird flu pandemic would be one of the most foreseeable catastrophes in history,” read the headline of a New York Times opinion article late last month.
https://www.sciencealert.com/experts-warn-of-bird-flu-pandemic-as-signals-of-mutation-mount
There’s a ‘pandemic’ every year in the Northern Hemisphere between November and March.
In the Southern Hemisphere it takes place between May and September.
Not all pandemics are equal.
Yes, they are. It’s just that some have a greater advertising budget and perhaps fit the zeitgeist.
“The spatiotemporal all-cause mortality (weekly time resolution, >100 jurisdictions) during the Covid period (the period of the declared pandemic, 2020-2023) disproves that the excess deaths could have been caused by the spreading contagion of any novel virus or its postulated variants (Rancourt et al., 2024).”
https://correlation-canada.org/respiratory-epidemics-without-viral-transmission/
TRUMP: HE WILL CONSIDER GETTING RID OF SOME CHILDHOOD VACCINATIONS IF HE THINKS THEY ARE DANGEROUS OR NOT BENEFICIAL – TIME INTERVIEW
said it all along
theyve voted for a lunatic as POTUS
Just make them optional and analyze existing long-term medical records to find side effects. We already have all the tools, what is missing is the institutional will.
That’s right. Consider for example the great pandemic of winter 2019-2020 (so called “covid19”). In Sweden, where they did not lock down, they experienced the fifth highest mortality since 1988! so some are much stronger than others.
https://www.rintrah.nl/how-influenza-responds-when-we-start-vaccinating-against-it/
Salidos
el mar
This is a very good post by an anonymous author who has written quite often about vaccines and viruses in the past. In this post, he explains what goes wrong with influenza and covid vaccines.
One easy to understand paragraph from the post:
Of course, the population has risen, too. I hope he has looked at that. But clearly, there has been no great impact of the vaccine.
Another part that most readers will understand. Glycans are sugar molecules. He talks about glycans being added as viruses evolve to resist antibodies elsewhere in this article. We also remember van den Bosche, writing endlessly about possible worse mutations. An excerpt from this post:
“he explains what goes wrong with influenza and covid vaccines. ”
Unless people quit dying, then they will have a last bout with an infection unless something (like a stroke or cancer) gets them. The evolution of viruses does not affect this fact.
“Of course, the population has risen, too”
Particularly the oldest segments of the population.
Nice find! This is a good article and yes there is probably a lot of dishonesty to reserves. I often lament that more people don’t understand the energy problem but maybe it’s for the best. I think by 2027 the masses will start to know then it will be a panic and no one wants that. Better to keep everyone numb for now.
Good article. Thanks.
I’d say collapse is already underway in per capita terms.
This article is called, The collapse in oil production is knocking at the door.
Quark gives a chart of world oil production ex the USA:
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhS30WxtWOejp_BzbQ8A6aAAiAbd3nqZcE8AiRPkBxRvw1hyphenhyphendcWgPkRuU3sL59RSuVoJcdz1cmvnJJaya96c3Xg-5tR1bzcynGuHuzugIEo2HLYZMKXFSGJ9RRFWk3w-v9MgtgxEVLrFYvlWLwXVR1iLB6jEmJLlSuWzFShOBi8gxW3KzOAXNwjkuVLyHZ4/w640-h496/oil%20excep%20usa.png
Then he explains why Saudi Arabia doesn’t really have the spare capacity it claims.
Hi Gail.
There is an error in the dates. Instead of 2010-2012, I wanted to say 2010-2024.
Apart from this, the debate I intend to introduce is about the reasonable doubt of the true reserves that still remain in the Middle East, giving Saudi Arabia as an example.
Thanks for the comments and of course I always read you.
not to worry
the Saudis have plans well in hand for an economic system which is not dependent on oil.
such as building 100m mile long cities in the desert.
Thanks! The rest of your article is well worth reading. It is my understanding that Saudi Arabia has not built up its pipeline capacity to handle even 13 million barrels a day. Also its water handling capability. The story is absurd that individual fields will start producing a great deal more.
I can almost imagine a scenario in which a breakthrough in technology allows a higher percentage extraction of oil in place than what is currently available. But even if this should happen, my guess is that it would at most stretch out the timing over which the oil is produced. It would not suddenly produce more oil from Saudi Arabia in a given year.
All of the statements about voluntarily cutting back production really mean, “We can’t produce more at this price. If the price were higher, perhaps we could use more high-tech approaches to obtain a greater percentage of oil in place. But at this price, this is all you can have.”
I see demand falling, as industrialization fails. This tends to hold prices down (except perhaps for inflationary adjustments).
or they increase Efficiency by quite a lot for example employees work from home the lockdowns prepared us.
Electricity prices in EU are on fire . Courtesy Quark in Spain .
https://euenergy.live/
It never rains , it pours .
https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/comments/1hcj2ul/norway_campaigns_to_cut_energy_links_to_europe_as/?rdt=63276
Where I am in the EU.
No sun. No wind. Temperature hovering just above freezing for days now.
Request to all . Read the comments section in the reditt link . Terrific info on the situation from the ground .
Holy heck, $1.18/kwh is ~10x what I pay. At that level you start looking for other solutions, like solar panels.
The title of this article is Norway campaigns to cut energy links to Europe as power prices soar.
Comment from Sweden: ” Even though we’re producing more than enough power for our needs, we end up paying extreme prices because we export so much to Germany (and because of the fair market rules, we have to pay the same price domestically).”
Another: It’s amazing how Germany’s failed energy policy has lead to everything from massive geopolitical disasters, trust between EU members starting to fail, and economic shitstorm for the whole continent.
From Norway: “Exporting surplus energy is one thing but paying EU-prices for our own hydropower is insane.”
Another: No Sun, no wind. Like every single winter.
wow you were right. what a clusterfuck.
and that is why storage or batteries are available start small if you can
Germany and Denmark seem to be worst off. Both are known for the renewable energy. They also depend on imported fossil fuels for balancing.
The German public are being told to prepare for electricity outages.
https://www.welt.de/vermischtes/article254847768/Hybride-Angriffe-Bereiten-Sie-sich-auf-Notlagen-vor-appelliert-Bevoelkerungsschutz-an-Deutsche.html
…but it’s being blamed on ‘hybrid attacks’ from abroad. 🙂
Meanwhile in the UK . Pub closed down as it gets an unbelievable increase in electricity bill .
https://peakoilbarrel.com/open-thread-non-petroleum-december-5-2024/#comment-783953
Peace makes plenty, plenty makes pride,
Pride breeds quarrel, and quarrel brings war;
War brings spoil, and spoil poverty,
Poverty patience, and patience peace
So peace brings war, and war brings peace.
– JEAN DE MEUN (FL.1280)
In the US, government spending was low during September, in an attempt by the Biden administration to try to make the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2024, look better. But now we have two months of the next fiscal year, and payment are coming in very high.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/government-spending-shock-us-budget-deficit-worst-start-year-record
Government Spending Shock: US Budget Deficit Soars In Worst Start To Year On Record
US Medicare has long been known to be a disaster waiting to happen, as the “baby boomers” retire (or, attempt to remain “retired”).
https://news.google.com/search?for=china+minerals+export+restrictions&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen
This seems to be a major “trade war” heating up … “not enough to go around” …
The article from the Diplomat says:
China’s Mineral Export Ban Strikes at the US Defense Industrial Base
It is hard to win a war without these minerals!
“the export of dual-use”
Unintended consequences. What were we think would happen when we cut off the AI chips to China? The answer is we were not thinking. China will become the most advanced manufacturer of chips and chip fabrication machines. Plus they figured out how to reduce the training of AIs by a factor of 200.
Cutting down trade with Canada and Mexico using tariffs will be a disaster. Bad as Brexit.
Somehow, the system is telling us that there is not enough oil for as much international trade as we have been doing. Somehow, international trade must be slowed down. The world must change. We don’t understand how.
you maybe miss the point Gail
it isn’t the world that will change—the world does what it does.
the world will change us.
that is the reality that most of us cannot accept—we remain convinced that ”they” will do something, fix things—the next (lol) breakthrough, that will somehow create the energy utopia that is the source of much fantasy.—gods will be merciful if only we pray hard enough.
fact remains, that humankind (the rich 10% of it anyway) looted the world and turned it into cash, on the assumption that we could spend forever. (MAGA anyone?).
we can’t.
current conflicts are the physical manifestation that we can’t.—everyone demands a way of life that the world itself cannot deliver,….so the world itself is merely demonstrating that fact, by correcting our behaviour.
“We don’t understand how.”
Ask the AIs.
AI (AIs implies a physical entity–there isnt one) can only impart information that it has already been given.
there is no ”new” information on how the world must change.
i can imagine asking AI the above question… then being horrified by the answer.
“I suggest 90% of you should die”
Electric Cars Could Last Much Longer Than You Think
Rather than having a shorter lifespan than internal combustion engines, EV batteries are lasting way longer than expected, surprising even the automakers themselves.
https://www.wired.com/story/electric-cars-could-last-much-longer-than-most-think/
Because the owners don’t dare to to to far with them?
Or just kept in the drive to show the neighbours what a good person the owner is?
I know my son’s Prius battery seems to be doing better than we had expected. So this would support your view.
But which part of the system degrades first? How long do we expect paved roads to last? Paving is oil dependent. Or is it the electric supply for charging the vehicles that degrades first?
“support your view”
Not my view, just a cut and paste from a Wired article.
I don’t know what will happen to roads. Probably they will last longer than I stay out of LN2.
As far as LiFePo4 for solar charging units, longevity reportedly is best if you store them at State of Charge (SOC) at 50%, but you need to balance them and then fully charge them 100% periodically according to Will Prowse.
In this video Chris Martenson begins to talk about Energy at the 47:47 minute mark. He still expects energy shortfalls in 2025. Partly due to prices not being “HIGH” enough for the producers to pull it out of the ground, sea, sand etc. If I heard him correctly, he’s looking at around 1.2 mb shortfall per day lasting 2-3 years starting in 2025.
https://peakprosperity.com/live-the-signal-hour-at-1pm-et-5/
Chris Martenson seems to be reporting on what the US Energy Information Administration is showing it its Short Term Energy Outlook, released December 10. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
Except, when I look at the STEO it says:
Chris, in his talk, points out the growth in US oil production has almost entirely been the result of growth in Permian oil production. He points out that the two big producers in the Permian are Chevron and Exxon. Chevron is cutting its investment back ((by 18%?). Exxon seems to be pointing to slightly lower production and says it is keeping its investment level flat.
From the poor investment and discouraging results in the Permian, Chris deduces that the oil production will fall at some point in the not too distant future. Chris thinks that oil prices will rise (sometime) because of this fall in oil production, indirectly affecting world oil production.
Close to the end, Chris shows a chart, sent to him by Eric Nuttall, showing expected demand growth of 1 million barrels a day. Chris says that oil demand always grows, outside of a recession. Nuttall’s chart shows non-OPEC+ oil growing quite robustly in 2025, by over 1 million barrels per day.
The forecast for a shortfall in supply seems to start with the years 2026 through 2030. Based on a chart shown, the amount of the shortfall could be as much as 1.4 barrels per day by 2030, assuming that OPEC+ remains flat. Of course OPEC+ has recently been contracting supply, so I am not sure this is correct.
Chris is definitely talking about high oil price, plant a garden, etc., even though the EIA, at least in this report, is not saying that. Of course the STEO forecast only goes through 2025.
I think lack of oil supply leads to recession and debt bubbles popping. Occasionally, it leads to high prices, but these don’t last long.
Economies around the world are slowing…. They will use less oil
Chris doesn’t understand this. He follows the standard peak oil mythology: Oil production will fall, but prices will rise to keep its production up.
Hi I wrote in last post with a link to the total deaths in Australia in recent times,
(https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/deaths-australia/latest-release )
unfortunately the significance of it was ignored. If we remember correctly Covid didn’t arrive until the very end of 2019. Then in 2020 everyone was dying and there was no cure so the deaths should have skyrocketed if the scare campaign was to be believed. then at the end of the year we were saved and so as everyone was injected over the next two years the numbers should have dropped back to the long-term average or lower due to the massive deaths in 2020. The chart shows it better but here are the figures for men (women follow in lockstep so I could use them instead).
2019 – 88346
2020 – 84588
2021 – 89401
2022 – 99924
2023 – 96180
This is Government figures and is the complete opposite of the official story.
In the year 2019, Covid was pretty much in China. We perhaps should be using this as the base number of deaths.
In 2020, Australia mostly kept Covid out by quarantining itself. There were fewer traffic accidents. There were likely fewer medical procedures with adverse results that could kill people. There might have been fewer immunizations of all kinds–I don’t know. There were fewer industrial accidents, and fewer care accidents. So, its deaths were low.
2021 was the year covid vaccinations in Australia started.
Covid cases were mostly in 2022, with a few spilling over to 2023.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/australia
The high deaths in 2022 go with the Covid epidemic. 2023 deaths stayed higher than they probably should have.
Not very helpful unless the cause of death is shown.
Quite often, the cause of death is not clear. Even if the cause of death is “adverse reaction to covid vaccine, I wouldn’t expect anyone to say that. If it is a heart problem related to the vaccine, it would be written up as a heart problem.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFMrd2251H8
Putin talking about the importance of AI. He fails to understand that we have the smart Israelis Ilya and Sam.
If intel agencies from all major nations aren’t scooping out the training sets, methods, data, model architectures and weights, then they’re utterly incompetent.
Bribing employees to copy what they can and bring it out is an effective method HUMINT.
Reuters:
https://archive.ph/gZK8z
France’s political woes may trigger fresh Europe energy crisis
LITTLETON, Colorado, Dec 5 (Reuters) – The collapse of France’s government on Wednesday could have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s energy markets and send regional electricity costs soaring.
France is by far the largest electricity exporter in Europe, accounting for roughly 60% of net electricity exports so far in 2024, according to energy data service energy-charts.info.
Record French electricity exports this year have provided neighbours with critical supplies of cheap and clean power while the region remains hobbled by high energy costs, weak economic growth and political disarray.
France is by far Europe’s largest electricity exporter
But France’s own political upheaval now calls into question whether the country can sustain its high levels of electricity output and exports.
BUDGET BUSTING
French utility EDF is closely entangled in the country’s political system, as the company was taken over by the government in 2022 after racking debts of roughly $10 billion.
EDF runs the country’s nuclear power fleet, which supplies around 70% of France’s electricity, and so is viewed as of critical national importance.
However, the company’s massive debt pile has only added to the government’s own growing debt obligations, a major factor behind the government’s collapse.
As a state-owned entity, EDF can access capital at preferential rates, and just last month the government was planning to make interest-free loans to EDF to cover the construction cost of new reactors.
However, the energy sector is also looked on as a potential source of government funds, and outgoing Prime Minister Michel Barnier had to abandon proposals for new taxes on electricity supplies just days before being ousted.
The resulting power vacuum now clouds the outlook for the entire energy generation and distribution sector, as EDF still needs regular and sizeable investments just to maintain the country’s aging nuclear fleet and power grids.
RECORD EXPORTS NOW IN JEOPARDY
The relatively low cost of French nuclear generation has allowed the country to enjoy sharply lower power prices than its neighbours, and the means to export surplus electricity into interconnected markets.
Key European wholesale spot power prices
So far in 2024, France’s wholesale power prices have averaged around 25% less than those of Germany and The Netherlands, and 45% less than Italy’s, according to LSEG.
That cost differential has motivated French power traders to export surplus supplies at a tidy profit.
However, any forced cuts to France’s power generation tied to budget tussles could quickly curtail electricity exports.
And no other nation is capable of replacing France’s electricity supplies at such low cost.
Over the first eleven months of 2024, France exported nearly 84 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity to neighbouring nations, according to energy-charts.info.
That export tally was 85% more than during the same period in 2023, and the highest for that period on records going back to 2015.
The country’s mammoth nuclear fleet – the largest in Europe – has been the key driver of those exports, with nuclear-powered generation climbing by around 12% from 2023’s levels to three-year highs in 2024, according to LSEG.
A 31% jump in hydro power output to the highest in over a decade has also helped fuel French generation and exports.
France output of nuclear & hydro power hits multi-year highs in 2024
However, both nuclear and hydro production are already approaching the upper limits of historical output levels, and so are at risk of reduction during any protracted political impasse or due to funding cuts.
GRIDLOCKED
Germany and Italy are two of Europe’s largest electricity importers, and will be particularly impacted by any loss of French power flows.
Both countries have large natural gas-fired power plant networks that have been hit hard by the drop in Russian gas supplies since 2022.
And Germany and Italy have stepped up imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in recent years in an attempt to restore domestic energy production.
But the sharply higher cost of LNG compared to pipelined supplies has meant that industries reliant on gas for power or as a feedstock have seen costs balloon.
Those surging costs have driven an acceleration in the electrification of energy consumption, and a surge in electricity imports by nearly all European nations.
So far, France has been able to supply most of that needed electricity, and helped keep regional electricity costs in check.
But if France’s power system loses steam as a result of the impending political skirmish, electricity importers may be faced with a drop in available supplies and surging power costs that could ignite a fresh regional energy crisis.
I would argue that France should be charging a lot more for its nuclear electricity. A big reason for EDF’s huge debt is that it is not really getting enough money for the product it sells (nuclear electricity including the upgrading services that its subsidiary provides). With EDF’s problems, it has not been able to keep nuclear power plants in good repair, without adding more debt.
The rest of Europe has been depending on excess nuclear power generation of France. This has been part of what has allowed them to believe that renewables can be a path to the future.
http://lachute.over-blog.com/2024/12/syndrome-des-couts-irrecuperables-le-nucleaire-francais.html
SUNKEN COST SYNDROME: FRENCH NUCLEAR POWER
December 10, 2024, Written by Patrick REYMOND
Let’s retrace history a little.
When the first oil shock occurs, in reality, the end of easy oil, there will be a certain number of economic reclassifications.
– In the construction sector, we will build less and build differently. The sector, which had reached its peak in 1972, with 550,000 homes, will fall sharply and we will fall back to an average of 356,000, with negative parameters. Indeed, collective housing, which was predominant between 1945 and 1972, is decreasing even faster. However, it consumes much more concrete and steel than the individual house which is becoming the norm again. This creates problems for the steel industry and grief for some billionaires in the construction sector that I will not name.
– To “save jobs” in the aforementioned sectors, and to please our friends, we will find it coherent to build nuclear power plants. That’s good, it’s big, it consumes a maximum of concrete, steel and especially special steels. Everyone is happy.
– Only, we simply saw a little too big. Some spoke of 200 power plants, others, more realistic, of 100, but the water constraints along the rivers mean that the overall project is stopped at 58. For the small trifle of 1000 billion francs spent and the overinvestment is visible.
– As the politician will never admit to having been wrong, he will succeed in swallowing the snake through incredible propaganda. Indeed, the STEP (Pumped Storage Energy Transfer Station) policy will be stopped dead in its tracks, not because it does not work, but because it would be stupid to admit to the public and to taxpayers that we only needed half, or even less, in reality only about twenty. In addition, the potential for pumped storage identified, even documented and determined at the study stage is approximately 5 times greater than it is currently and would have cost much less. Only a few billion, this is unacceptable for the construction industry.
– In fact, the potential for pumped storage is much greater than that currently used. Indeed, to operate nuclear power plants, we are obliged to keep a certain low water level constant.
3 322 / 5 000
– Since we have far too much capacity, we will develop inappropriate uses. Equipment subsidies to companies (which will lead many to file for bankruptcy), and electric heating. Electric heating has a flaw, it requires a network that accepts very high flows in winter, on average, one week per year.
In periods of extreme cold, even the nuclear reactor network is too light. Overall, electricity consumption for heating is only about 40 TWh, for a production of 500, but the network it has generated is monstrously expensive and consumes a huge amount of materials
Consumption peaks sometimes reach 100 GW, compared to normal consumption varying from 30 to 60.
– Nuclear power is not controllable, we can only decouple it from the network. The nuclear fleet operates most of the time, for nothing, leading to overconsumption of fuel. We have already extended the shutdowns of power plants “to save fuel”.
– The opposition to nuclear power plants, the environmentalists, is entirely dogmatic, and never tackles the problem of economic nonsense. In fact, the profitability of nuclear power is mainly historical and comes from the monetary devaluation of construction costs. The environmentalists attack everything that is renewable, even hydraulic and marine hydraulic, in addition to wind and photovoltaic.
– French politicians, concerned about the profitability of EDF, have always neglected the development of other energy sources, or even fought them. Solar thermal production only reaches 2.2 TWh in France, compared to 18.2 in Germany, which is clearly less advantaged in terms of sunshine. But its development had been treated as “Sovietism”, by a minister who will not go down in history.
– The government’s obedience to European directives discourages any new construction, because EDF would have to give up the concessions. Only private contractors can rehabilitate old sites (mills) after having fought a crazy bureaucracy and environmentalists clearly under the influence of illicit products. In the case I personally experienced, 5 years of administrative procedures for 6 months for the work.
To summarize: the case of French nuclear power plants is an economic absurdity, the “sincere costs syndrome”, where we bet more and more, because we are unable to assume the fact that we have already spent too much, and inadequately, while, everywhere in the world the share of nuclear power is at most 20%. In fact, the exit from nuclear power is already underway, even if it could last a long time. Major and recurring breakdowns, costly upgrading, some nuclear power plants are visibly dangerous, increasingly complicated and costly maintenance, uranium shortages swept under the carpet by increasingly lengthy maintenance operations…
In fact, the share of electricity consumption from nuclear sources is constantly falling. By nearly 80%, down to 63%.
In addition, this has led to hostility to any alternative solution, with the drop in consumption leading to a drop in GDP and tax revenues. Even if the savings can be substantial…
+
Another point to add, the deadlock on dams and pumping stations generated, not by the lack of profitability, but by several contradictory pressures.
The first from the European Commission which wants to privatize the concessions of the dams.
The second is the refusal of the country to consider it, supporting in this the very strong unions of EDF in this refusal.
The management of EDF is also clearly in refusal and, in certain cases is visibly more powerful than the government.
The French government lets the situation rot, without deciding anything, so, for decades, the construction of dams has been at a standstill. It never refuses anything to the European Commission, but in this case, it refuses suicide.
just put the power plant in the ocean and use transmission lines. most major population centers globally are near the water, anyways.
“power plant in the ocean”
Unfortunately this runs up against physical, engineering and financial realities.
ever heard of nuclear subs? 60 year-old tech
“nuclear subs”
I was thinking about the difficulty of transmitting electricity under water, It can certainly be done but it is expensive and has limits.
You can put the nuclear power plants on ships. Russia has at least a few of these that power cities in some hard to reach places. The ships can be docked or anchored near shore. I don’t know anything about the cable configuration.
“nuclear power plants on ships.”
It does cope with the cooling problem, Docked there is no problem with connections to get the power to shore. Far out from shore you run into the same problems that offshore wind has and have to use DC connections. In some circumstances this makes sense. But for GW and larger, I kind of doubt it. I have not run into an engineering analysis so my opinion is tentative.
“Unfortunately this runs up against physical, engineering and financial realities.”
For the cornucopians that just proves it is the right thing to do.
“right thing to do”
Solving problems is what engineers do.
Starting to get a hint of interest in the coal (or trash) plus excess renewable to diesel.
50ft under my house is a seam of coal 6ft thick
coal isnt the problem
getting at it is the problem
Just go down to the basement and keep digging.
Later you can use the basement as a coal cellar.
It’s resources we are short of, not ideas.
Thanks for your insights on France’s nuclear problems. Nuclear seems best suited for base load, but this is not much more than 20%.
Trying to match peak load with nuclear is practically impossible. You need a well-developed fossil fuel electricity generation system to cover the peaks.
The situation is pretty awful now. There really isn’t natural gas or coal supply available for peak loads. And the already-built nuclear is a headache to keep repaired. And getting fuel is another problem.
Thanks Reymond . In my view electricity production is a loss making venture from Day 1 . Let us see in Europe EDF ( France) , Electrabel (Belgium) , RWE ( Germany ) , Abengoa ( Spain ) all are broke /bankrupt . I can assure you that this applies to whole EU . In USA — Enron was bankrupt and now PGE has been bailed out as many times as Boeing . The same applies to all power corporations in the USA . In India all State Electricity Boards are bankrupt . I think the only few countries where electricity corporations make a profit would be Canada and Norway and that is because they have more hydropower in their mix . Why so ? In my opinion because the EROEI is a disaster— from the place of production to the place of consumption that if actual prices ( full cycle cost) was charged the customer would not buy electricity . Checkout UK as the example . The problem is that now our civilization is so far down the lane of electrification that we cannot afford the shutdown of the electricity system . It would be an absolute collapse a la Ukraine . Welcome to ” the Olduvai theory ” .
Electricity is the high cost form of energy. This is especially the case when the cost of transmission is included, and even the indirect cost of frequent repairs after storms and the cost of fires caused by falling power lines.
Substituting electricity for cheaper direct energy burning for heat looks in theory like it might be cheaper, but it doesn’t seem to really work out that way. Cogeneration, using waste heat from power plants, was especially inexpensive. We have simply disregarded that source of heat.
The hypercomplex system of dying reality turns into parody:
Parody of food
Parody of relationships
Parody of animals
Parody of feminity
Parody of masculinity
Parody of everything
Parody of investment
Parody of profits
All is fake
Figure out a way of extracting as much revenue from a broad range of customers, as possible. There will be at least a few who grab on to hyper complex systems.
I think every country will have its Javier Milei, as the increasing ageing populations pensions, various social benefits and healthcare costs are simply unsustainable.
https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/09/05/milei-vetoes-pension-increase-and-doubles-down-on-repression/
International north-south corridor still incomplete after 25 years, despite huge geopolitical motivation to complete it. Incompetence rules the day.
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/geopolitics-of-the-international-north-south-transport-corridor-instc/
Overland routes tend to be terribly expensive.
https://www.artberman.com/blog/oil-power-and-statecraft-the-geopolitics-of-energy-in-a-changing-world/
Not sure if anyone else posted this but good article from Art
This is an interesting post from Art Berman. He correctly points out that oil plays an extremely important role is all of the international conflicts. He has a lot of theories about what the US should do politically, as well as comments about what the US has done wrong. Art says:
I don’t know what will work. I don’t think Art’s suggestion of long-distance international alliances with oil reserve holders such as Saudi Arabia (mentioned in the last paragraph) will work very well. We need China’s manufacturing ability and its resources of many kinds. We are not going to be able to ramp up our own manufacturing to substitute, nearly as well as we would like. So far, we seem to be going in the direction of EVs and batteries, which is a totally ridiculous manufacturing direction.
I see the situation as more of a predicament, rather than something the US can work its way out of. Perhaps more alliances with Canada and other countries of North/South America would be helpful.
I think that 400.000 barrels per day bought by China from US are probably only a way to buy something else from US, as US imports a lot of Chinese products.
That is, in order to try to balance commercial exchange.
That reasonable amount can be substituted easily with more Iranian of Russian Oil by China, which additionally can give more diesel.
but renewables evs and batteries are our only chance if oil is finite therefore we will have to adapt to this new world you know as the elders know that there is no other path that is available .by denouncing them you are offering no hope of solutions and then we are on the path of fast eddy challenge world the elders know this and will begin the cull. therefore there is only one choice we can logically make.
how do i get to be an elder before the cull starts
Easy, get nominated to a cabinet post in the new Administration without being forced to submit a withdrawal because of a Congressional review…
Sorry, Norman ..you being an active participant here on OFW leaves you out..
Maybe next lifetime
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=nSuregWhlWk
And you may find yourself watching this video…and you may ask yourself, well how did I get here?
I’ll see if there’s space in Keiths freezer then
see if that works out
(can I recruit you –and your descendants of course—to stay defrosted and pay the electric bills for the next 500 years?)
Offshore production is ~25% of total supply (using the ~100mbpd total liquids number). I didn’t realize it was this high!
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Offshore-Oil-Is-Booming-With-Vessel-Markets-Near-All-Time-High.html
Most of the oil reservoirs are under the oceans, but spar platforms can drill in water up to 3500 meters, or over 2 miles, which is the average ocean depth, approximately.
… Could this existing technology, with ongoing refinement, save us for yet another generation? Offshore production is growing 6% a year, which (with compounding) is sufficient to offset declines elsewhere.
It would require a lot of ship-building, a lot of infrastructure, but China has the wherewithal to approach a project like this.
I wonder how sound Chinese technology for deep sea drilling really is. The quality of the pipes, drill bits may be suspect. It’s one thing to make clothes, shoes and furniture, it’s another to make high tech machinery.
Already, some of China’s vaunted J-=16, J-35 fighters etc have engine problems.
I expect the Chinese are doing better on offshore drilling than on planes to be used in wars. The US buys a lot of its drilling pipe from China now. I don’t know how much, though. The US doesn’t have the capability to make much of the high tech drilling supplies. China has been involved for a long time.
Jet planes to be used in bombing is a different question. Russia is probably the leader in this. It is awfully easy to spend a huge amount of money on building a prototype, only to find that it doesn’t really work as planned. I am doubtful that conventional war between the US and China is really possible. They will use AI to hack each others’ internets instead, and do other mischief.
Hubbs, check out the overheating problems the US F-35 fighters have. Apparently, to reach the claimed power, they had to up the engine temperatures to unheard of levels, resulting in a serious cooling problem.
One of the future upgrades, read fixes, involves solving this problem. Heat is hard to get rid of. It also reduces the lifetime of any components that are subjected to it.
again
oil isnt the main problem
the problem is what it costs in A– energy terms to get hold of oil, and B –what we have left to spend in using oil.
ie—our lives depend on surpluses, (the difference between A and B above) not oil per se.
Exactly!
The low-hanging fruit has been picked. There’s a whole lot more climbing to do to get those cherries right at the top.
You could make that argument about anything. It’s not about freshwater, you don’t have enough surplus to transport fresh water or purify it. Accessible material is the same as usable material, so for all intents and purposes, yes it is the problem. Restating it makes no difference, you could argue there is infinite material in the universe. This is just tautology and semantics. There is no distinction. If you could infinitely mine and reconcentrate carbon you could control nature.
PS – I got the % growth wrong, it’s 3%, not 6%.
Maybe the offshore oil supply will help the world energy supply for a few more years. But the increase is only 3%.
What seems to be added are wells (a) in parts of the world that are far from the wealthy countries of the West, and (b) extra deep wells.
There is added complexity in trying to do either one of these things. Costs rise. How long this can be maintained and increased is unknown.
Yes most companies are moving into this area after Guyana discovery
Cool it guys . Offshore tech is mature . Yes , there will continue to be marginal improvements but nothing groundbreaking . This video is crap just like the Ecowarm heater that Gail posted . All conjecture , Write this down peak oil ( C&C) was in November 2018 . 6 years later that still stands . All growth in oil production since 2010 has come from shale and that will enter decline in 2025 . Guyana was discovered in 2015 . It takes 10 years from FID to bringing the oil to the market . I am not aware of any FID in offshore at the moment ,
FID — First Investment Decision
A new report is out, suggesting that Europe’s planned energy transition will be impossibly expensive. The costs in the report are underestimated because they exclude interest costs, and perhaps other things.
Zerohedge story:
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Europe-Afford-Its-Energy-Transition.html
The original report can be found here:
https://www.bruegel.org/sites/default/files/2024-12/PB%2031%202024_0.pdf
Sounds like the U.S when they talk about adding more debt. What can’t continue won’t
Have been a member of MREA for years, have attended many meetings, taken many courses. The stuff does not work economically except perhaps wood burning fireplaces(masonry) which are about $35K without the wood which is extra.
Solar appears to work for the installers a bit only because of the tax credits.
Solar and wind may work locally if used locally and if intermittence can be either dealt with or worked around.
Humans like narratives which if done well avoid painful reality. This said with no sarcasm, we need to make it through each day which can be a challenge.
Dennis L.
Wood burning fireplace?? Have they ever heard about the wood burning stove? It was invented by Ben Franklin I believe 🤨
Masonary heaters are very nice and seem to work fairly well for maintaining an even temperature.
Dennis L.
Gail , readers at OFW already know about this farce . The other’s are behind the curve .
I know Russia moved some of its ships out of these ports, but I also read that some were still there. It’s possible, albeit unlikely, that Israel bombed some Russian ships still in port or facilities still occupied by the Russians.
https://www.rt.com/news/609169-israel-bombs-syrian-navy/
>> Israeli warships fired missiles at the ports of Latakia and Al-Bayda over the past 48 hours, the IDF said on Tuesday evening. It added that 15 Syrian naval vessels were docked at the ports during the attacks.
They will get a stern rebuke.
I think that the game in Siria is far to be over.
My impression is that the trick made by Biden in Syria before Trump arrival will cause a lot of problems instead of solutions to the so called west.
Syria is a very complicated matrix, more complicated than Iraq..
and West’s troops on the ground are not American or Israeli, but those troops are Jihadists of different factions, Kurds of different actions, factions of different factions and so on and so forth…
Let’s
Why Switzerland and Austria are neutral countries?
Because these countries have a large proportion of cold areas unsuitable for human existence. Namely they lack cheap food.
The trees for energy can grow in cold and poor.soil, but food…
The Swiss cantons have long been a considerable and aggressive military force. From their creation in 1291 to 1444 (battle of Ensisheim) against the army of the dauphin Louis, they experienced no defeat. They stopped waging war only in 1515 (battle of Marignan) where the Swiss phalanx was crushed by the artillery of King François 1st of France. 20,000 dead out of 30,000 combatants. They concluded a “Perpetual Peace” with the King of France and reserved for him the supply of mercenaries. This lasted until 1792 when the Swiss guard with a few nobles were the last defenders of Louis XVI. On the contrary, the poverty of Switzerland (and other mountain regions in Europe) makes it specialize in “military prostitution”.
The best path to peace is to wage war completely and lose it completely. Like the Sweden of Charles XII.
Yes, they have a poor piece of land (tourism is another story, that began with cheap fossil fuels), surrounded by lands that are more suitable for humans. So better to be neutral, as they the lack of the energy in the form of food is crucial.
You can still survive the cold, when you wrap up yourself with some insulation. But without the food…
“the road from Paris to Switzerland can be paved with the gold from the pay of Swiss soldiers and its ditches filled with their blood.” One way, indeed, to resolve local overcrowding.
Norway has tended to be neutral, for a similar reason. The statues in Norway are not of soldiers. They are of women and possibly children.
the vikings were not particularly peaceful, and Voltaire used the terrible term “goths” to describe the peoples of the north. During the “Northern War”, which lasted from 1700 to 1721, Sweden (which also included the Baltic countries, northern Germany and Finland), populated by 2,500,000 inhabitants, lost 250,000 men in the war. In the end, there were no more men to harvest the crops; the remaining soldiers were 70 or 16 years old.
Norway has had trouble providing enough food for its population at various times in its history. Going around, attacking others, would be a way of doing this, if “goths” could figure this out.
Partial martial law for healthcare:
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/the-slovak-government-faces-backlash-over-a-forced-labour-proposal-amid-doctors-strike/
This article starts out:
Russia was known to be the country of women seeking men to marry abroad after the collapse in the 90s.
Now they killed their own men and Russia becomes the country of women.
>> Now they killed their own men and Russia becomes the country of women.
Russia has a surplus of males below age ~30 and in any case, few Russian men are dying in Ukraine relative to the size of the population, so the war isn’t making a big difference on that front.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia#/media/File:Russia_Population_Pyramid.svg
It is a slight surplus in comparison to overall surplus of females.
Sure, but the future has to do with the younger population demographics, which the ongoing war deaths don’t harm because there is a male surplus.
Surely, a surplus of females is impossible.
A population will always recover relatively quickly from a large loss of male life compared to a large loss of female life.
Ladies may beg to differ.
If young ladies are available to be mothers, an economy does not need a huge number of men to be fathers. In fact, even older men can sometimes be fathers.
A shortfall of young women will cause the population to drop.
Yes look at China they are hiding their inevitable collapse!
“A population will always recover relatively quickly from a large loss of male life compared to a large loss of female life.”
I agree.
“For a recent historical example of population reduction by war, in 1864 Paraguay found itself^ at war with three of its neighbors. Paraguay was- needless to say –
defeated. Few defeated nations in the world’s military history exhibited such a degree of devastation as the Paraguay of 1870. Its population, now estimated at only 221,000, had suffered war casualties of at least 220,000 people. Among the survivors there were only 28,000 men; women over fifteen were said to outnumber men at a ratio of more than four to one. [Kolinski (1965) p. 198]. ” https://www.academia.edu/777381/Evolutionary_psychology_memes_and_the_origin_of_war
oh, to be one of those remaining men!
Kurt Cobb on trade war .
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2024/12/us-china-trade-war-is-latest-battle.html#more
Kurt Cobb makes some good points-some that would likely be obvious to OFW readers:
Why would it take a decade or two to develop a mine? Is there a source for this or is it an off the cuff statement?
Sam , he says ” maybe ” for this the main requirement is first it must exist and second it must be economical . No logic drilling ” dry ” holes in the ground . The field of exploration devolped faster than the field of extraction , The world is mapped , There are no economic resources . End of story .
I am afraid you are correct, unless there are real breakthroughs in technology.
What seems to be the manifesto of the fellow who is being changed with killing the CEO of United Healthcare has been published.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/luigi-mangione-fights-ny-extradition-rages-about-insult-intelligence-american-people
and so it begins forced vaccinations will lead to vigilantes taking out the perpetrators and it will involve young angry men the usa with its love affair with guns should descend into anarchy.
no it won’t.
Maybe some angry old grumpy men in the mix…just saying..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P9PjqPVxc9E&pp=ygUNQW5ncnkgb2xkIG1lbg%3D%3D
This old coot didnt like that I passed him on the road since he was blocking the way, so on my return journey he chased me down, and this is what happened!
Don’t touch my Social Security Check, just saying
Symptom of the level if wealth inequality we have in the US.
Oil Price points out:
U.S. Manufacturing Power Wanes as China’s Influence Soars
The data quoted is all 2022.
What is worrying to me is the way China’s economy is struggling now, with many workers who cannot find jobs. Many fewer goods and services will be produced worldwide, if China’s economy starts a major contraction. A world with lots of debt and pension promises cannot withstand a contracting world economy.
Doesn’t your chart show industrial output declining in 2025? Seems it is >25% in one year.
Dennis L.
The EIA has a new article about a few of California’s fuel challenges in “Today in Energy.”
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=63944
California law and refinery closure reflect ongoing challenges for the state’s fuel market
Recently,
“On October 14, California Governor Gavin Newsom signed bill Abx2-1 into law, empowering California regulators to set and adjust minimum petroleum product inventory levels for refiners in the state, in part to address the state’s fuel price volatility. Shortly after, refiner Phillips 66 announced plans to close its Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles by the end of 2025, citing uncertainty surrounding the long-term sustainability of the refinery.”
Some challenges refiners face:
“California must comply with the state’s Cap-and-Trade program, which requires them to bid for emissions allowances, as well as the state’s LCFS, which requires refiners (and importers or wholesalers) to buy carbon credits according to the volume of carbon-emitting fuels (such as gasoline and petroleum diesel) that they supply to the market.”
Also,
“The West Coast also tends to have higher refiner acquisition costs for crude oil because crude oil production is limited in the region and routes to import crude oil are often longer. ”
The article concludes that California will need to import more finished products, as its own ability to produce refined products falls.
I noticed on a link within the article that California uses the largest amount of jet fuel in the nation. Most US jet flights across the Pacific stop in California. If California can’t get enough jet fuel, these trans-Pacific flights will need to be scaled back.
The CIA “TIMBER SYCAMORE” OPERATION BEHIND THE FALL OF ASSAD
Automatic translation.
LInks are active inside the original article.
“What has happened in Syria in the last few hours is not a fortuitous event, the result of the case, but is the result of a strategy carried out for several years, through funding, weapons and unscrupulous use of intelligence.
The story of the Timber Sycamore operation
The regime change in Damascus has a precise name: it is called Operation Timber Sycamore. It is a covert operation organized by the CIA that aimed to supply weapons and train the anti-Assad paramilitary groups in Syria.
The initiative was launched in 2012, just one year after the start of the so-called Arab springs, in conjunction with the arrival in Syria of about 100,000 radical jihadists from all over the world. The circuit that over the years has brought together weapons and funding from the United States to Syria has been very articulated.
Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey to support US
In fact, the Saudi, Jordanian, Qatari and even Turkish services were involved in the CIA. In detail, Saudi Arabia in Qatar was safe, while Jordan and Turkey granted their territory for the training of jihadists who were then, by hand, were brought into Syrian territory. The latter have formed several groups including Al Nusra and Tahrir al Sham, both of which were former members of Al Qaeda.
And in fact, in 2012 the then leader of Al Qaeda, Ayman Al Zawahiri, proclaimed jihad against what he called Assad’s “cancere regimen”. And for a strange twist of fate, on the same day, in an email that was later declassified, Jake Sullivan, an adviser to then-US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, wrote: “Al Qaeda is on our side in Syria. Things went basically as expected.”
From 2012 to 2017, the CIA operation brought more than $1 billion into the ranks of jihadists. Then came Donald Trump who interrupted everything. Despite this, the American Deep State has always kept its eyes open. In 2017, Henri Kissinger spoke to Trump: “ISIS is keeping Iran under control.” In short, the jihadists have always been convenient to a certain American agenda.
And so in the last months of the presidency Biden has withdrawn out of the drawer the operation interrupted by the CIA and that after 12 years has achieved its purpose: the removal of Assad.
When Assad was received with honors
Assad, who today is described as a bloodthirsty tyrant, but who until 2012 enjoyed the esteem of the international community. In 2001 he received the Legion of Honour from French President Chirac, in 2002 Assad and his wife Asma were greeted with all the honors by Queen Elizabeth at Buckingham Palace, in 2009 he was recognized by an American poll as “the most popular Arab leader”, while in 2011 he received compliments from the then President of the Italian Republic Giorgio Napolitano.
All this was erased by a CIA operation that has now led a group of jihadists to control a gigantic country, full of resources and with so many minorities who now, with the new masters, risk big.
https://www.byoblu.com/2024/12/10/loperazione-cia-timber-sycamore-dietro-la-caduta-di-assad/
The phrase “Saudi Arabia in Qatar was safe” is in the original “Saudi and Qatar gave funds and were safety box”
In a utilitarian way this is justifiable
Does anyone know if there are anything to the claims of Ecowarm. It claims to heat your room using 90% less electricity than other devices. One device supposedly heats up one room quickly.
https://try.ecowarmofficial.co/teA2JZNeHw
I don’t need one myself. The price they are giving right now is
$68 apiece ($136 total) for two of the devices (for two rooms)
$41 apiece ($165 total) for four of the devices (for four rooms)
If it actually works, it could be an advance.
As heat is absorbed by walls, furniture and escapes through opening…. it would be pretty amazing if the conservation of energy was somehow defeated. I have found those directional parabolic dish heaters to do well when getting to a cold house, and needing a place where the heat can be directed to first a couch, and then people sitting on it. I use this while the wood stove takes a few hours to warm the house.
But, I dont think this is what Ecowarm is getting at.
keith will give you the exact figures Gail
but if a room has X volume—at Y temperature and you want to raise it to Z temperature,—then the energy input to do that (the part you have to pay for) is fixed, wherever its source is.
the only way to heat a space cheaper, is to find a cheaper source of heat itseunless ive missed something a mechanical device cannot do that.
Over to you Keith
I could not believe it.
https://allegro.sk/produkt/elektricky-ohrievac-400w-handy-heater-b62f072b-da5c-4356-971b-59b7df9caa8a
800W???
Copying the link failed, this should be the right one: https://allegro.sk/ponuka/vykonny-mini-elektricky-ohrievac-farelka-pre-kontakt-zasuvky-dialkovy-ovladac-800w-16576553501
“I could not believe it.”
If it sounds too good to be true, that is probably the case.
“Over to you Keith”
You can do better than a resistance heater. Heat pumps will give you more heat than you put into the heat pump.
But not for $68.00. This is a scam.
Does anyone here remember the bloom box? What happened to that it was supposed to be a game changer!!!
“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bloom_Energy_Server”
‘90% less energy’ implies using only 10% as much. This is almost certainly a scam. Heat pumps with butane and propane working fluids can provide a high COP. Large units with steady flow compressors might get 70% of Carnot. But a small scale room-sized unit would be impractical.
One way of using 90% less energy would be to heat the room to a lower temperature and only heat the room when it is occupied. As simple as that sounds, it is the easiest option for most people. Resistance heaters typically heat the air. This may be the most efficient option if a room is occupied intermittently, for short periods of time.
I think it’s more about how you use it (not that the advert states as much).
We have a similar one but with a fan (it’s called therma rocket). We run it on medium setting (1000W) as opposed to high (1500W). However, we only use it to heat up a single room for a short period of time rather than turning on the central heating which heats up the whole house. We also have young children which rules out gas burners.
Without doing the sums, 90% energy saving seems a bit ludicrous. The therma rocket claims up to 45% energy saving, but I suspect these aren’t credible either.
Reviews for such devices tend to be quite poor based on the claims made compared to efficiencies delivered. Essentially, it is just a resistance heater as others have said.
My ideal solution is a log burner in the living room as it is relatively easy to come by logs where I live. Hopefully within the next few years…
A problem I have with a lot of those sort of studies is they only seem to look at one (sometimes two) aspects of the issue, e’g. climate change or water shortages or resource depletion or conflict. Not everything piled on top of each other. Once food or fuel get even a bit short people will start fighting each other for what’s available and with increased intensity as the shortfalls get worse. They will also accelerate environmental destruction in their desperation, so everything cascades to chaos quickly. By the 2050s there will be little oil, especially diesel, available for export (so Europe might not have much agriculture or industry and be a place people want to leave), about half of the world’s large aquifers will be dry or on their last legs, a large portion of presently cultivated land will be so degraded as to be nearly barren, large portions of the tropics and the middle east will be too hot to survive, and every body would be fighting everybody else at some level for day to day survival. Almost everybody would be looking to move if there was only somewhere to move to that looked a bit like it did in the 1970s.
George Kaplan on Harry’s blog . Makes me go –hmmm .
The elders have done an amazing job at preparing us for the collapse in living standards all the people are oblivious to what’s happening they are glued to their phones while collapse takes place this is the biggest distraction tool I have ever seen maybe the elders will use this tool to take us out over time.
This may sound off the wall, but what really pisses me off is at the Y, everyone- from land whales who camp on the reclining bicycle machines and other exercise stations which allow you to sit to young guys at the traditonal flat or incline benches who will stare into their cell phones for ten minutes or more between sets.
Is there any activity left which does not involve a cell phone?
“Is there any activity left which does not involve a cell phone?”
Robing banks. 🙂
bank robbers need to call their getaway car/driver—-sorry
Carrying a cell phone while robing a bank is like scattering business cards at the bank. Not smart.
I got doubled tapped jabbed and I feel fine….Now, please I know, I know the whole story, even before..but since CDC and all health care providers encouraged and mandated it’s dose, even to children and pregnant women, I decided to play Socrates and drink from the cup.
Still waiting for the final curtain call, “Have I played my part well?🥒””.
For me, no biggie, I’m a useless eater now…and looks like it’s the best outcome before society breaks completely
“Still waiting for the final curtain call”
heh heh, me too.
“before society breaks completely”
I would not count on it. Next 4 years are going to be fascinating, not in the political realm, but in the run up to the singularity. One possibility is growth in wealth to where even the poor of today are better off than the billionaires.
/////One possibility is growth in wealth to where even the poor of today are better off than the billionaires.//////
Keith—-sometimes i just go into a slough of utter despair—if you dont get it—who will????
wealth is, and can only ever be, a product of surplus energy.
in my Gx10 -fathers day, the lord of the manor lived in a castle–, the rest lived in mud huts.
Why????
because the said lord of the manor (literally) took all the surplus energy from the surrounding land, and used it to support his castle-lifestyle, leaving barely anything for anyone else.
greed and entitlement in other words.
now i live in a style my Gx10-father simply wouldnt recognise…but only because i have a share of the energy surplus available, whereas he didnt.
but wealth will not grow, because surpluses are going to diminish..—therefore wealth in real terms will melt away—Musk, Bezos et al will not be excluded from this because thier wealth is dependent on unreality. (if electric cars have no power—you simply end up with chicken coops on wheels)
fill your basement with gold bricks—they are only worth what someone will pay for them—if theres no energy surplus, the value of everything else will collapse.
bring back a solid gold asteroid—that will only make things worse—it will just devalue the gold we already have here even more.
“if you dont get it—who will?”
We have a radically different view of progress. Mind you, it might make the race go extinct, but it could make every one of us subjectively wealthy. I just can’t say.
wealth in basic terms, means the ability to buy energy resources
you can have the means to buy ”just enough”—-or the means to run a private jet, several mansions—gold plated toilet–whatever
or something in between.
if you have resources to by ”excess”—then you also have to have sufficient resources to pay wages of people who will look after it for you–ie–house staff, private pilot, yacht crew, and so on.
Musk is worth $300 bn apparently—but he can still only sleep in 1 bed and eat 3 meals a day.
so he blatantly uses his wealth to buy the president, and thus lucrative contracts for his ventures—but this diverts colossal resources into Musks personal fortune—a pure greed.
True, Norman, Remember the singer Ray Charles saying the same many decades ago..on the piano
But there are examples of excess that put others to shame .
Remarkable how some can piss away money
only the other day—there was a report of a pair of shoes worn by Judy Garland in the Wizard of Oz, being sold for $23m
that is an obscenity—but we live in a free market, so i’m not sure what could be done to prevent it
I don’t think so: “One possibility is growth in wealth to where even the poor of today are better off than the billionaires.”
“better off than the billionaires.”
It’s not unprecedented. Queen Isabella had to hock the crown jewels for Columbus to cross the Atlantic, something even the relatively poor can afford today.
Keith
the great unwashed can cross the Atlantic because cheap surplus energy makes it possible.
nothing else.
They dont have to buy the aircraft, though the fare of each of them pays a tiny fraction of its cost
Equating it with Columbus is ridiculous and unworthy of you. (you must be desperate).
and its still only a minority who can afford long distance flight
“Equating it with Columbus”
I didn’t even think this up. I can’t remember where I saw it, but it was at least a decade ago. There are a bunch of people working on moon vacation proposals. I think this is silly, but what do I know, it might come to pass.
The lifestyle you ordered is ”out of stock” . Charles Hugh Smith .
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/grey-swans-are-circling
From the article:
“to boost the corporation’s profits and stock valuation is also taboo. ”
It’s legally mandated.
Dodge v. Ford Motor Co.
1919 Michigan Supreme Court case
Dodge v. Ford Motor Co., 204 Mich 459; 170 NW 668, is a case in which the Michigan Supreme Court held that Henry Ford had to operate the Ford Motor Company in the interests of its shareholders, rather than in a manner for the benefit of his employees or customers.
“Three-Quarters of U.S. Adults Are Now Overweight or Obese: A sweeping new paper reveals the dramatic rise of obesity rates nationwide since 1990.”
Is this a failure of the medical profession or success of fast food and snack companies? (As I reach for the Doretos.)
The food industry in general, not just the fast food industry. But also the directives that government agencies put out.
Perhaps we need a new supreme court case overturning Dodge v. Ford Motor Co.
A healthcare system that is mainly focused on profits is unacceptable. So is a food regulation system that does not take into account the health needs of the population it is trying to serve.
There have to be limits on what corporations can do.
“The food industry in general, not just the fast food industry. But also the directives that government agencies put out. ”
The US government can and has forced labels on foods. I don’t think that has made much difference in what people eat. I can’t see the government telling the potato chip makers to make them less tasty. The government could, I suppose, put a big tax on tasty snacks, but the result might be buying less healthy food. Not an easy problem, evolution shaped us for running down rabbits, not opening bags of corn chips.
“Perhaps we need a new supreme court case overturning Dodge v. Ford Motor Co.”
The current court is not likely to do that, corporations that consider employees, customers, or the general welfare over profits are being attacked for “wokism” whatever that is.
“A healthcare system that is mainly focused on profits is unacceptable. So is a food regulation system that does not take into account the health needs of the population it is trying to serve.”
I think the corporations are not trying to serve, just to make profits for the stockholders. They dump the external cost on everyone. Sometimes the short term focus kills the corporation.
“There have to be limits on what corporations can do.”
If anyone has ideas, I would be interested to hear about them.
The incentives (and the available quantity of food per capita) are far different in the US than in other countries.
The US has had such a superabundance of food that it has been able to push more and more inexpensive and highly processed food on the American people.
Volkswagen CEO’s Speech to Workers Drowned Out By Boos
https://www.latintimes.com/volkswagen-ceo-speech-workers-drowned-out-boos-says-company-isnt-operating-fantasy-world-568340
Do you see what I see?
CEO can’t say, “We need a very large supply of cheap energy to make this factory pay reasonable wages. The only energy we have, is a limited supply of expensive energy. In fact, this limited supply of expensive energy will make it difficult to purchasers to find affordable fuel for these vehicles. So we need to cut back on production.”
The boo-criers from the trade unions voted for the left-wing and green parties that are turning off the energy tap for VW. Now they want to prevent VW from making adjustments due to economies of scale in order to survive.
The protesters commit suicide!
Saludos
el mar
Erdogan’s victory is now bitter . Already 3-4 million refugees in Turkey and now another 4-5 million .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-germany-austria-others-halt-asylum-bids-syrians-after-assads-fall
Have you noticed that the cheerleaders of ” Assad must go” are silent . No congratulatory messages to Erdogan and Nethanayahu .Did the West realize what a s”t can they have opened ? Were they led into into a trap ?
That’s too rich for me to believe. I think Bibi won big and Russia and iran lost big.
Is Israel a winner? It will probably be able to grab some territory in the South of Syria (it has already occupied the rest of the Golan Heights) and the Druze minority that lives there probably won’t be opposed to being ruled by Israel. But on the other hand it may end up with an unholy mess on its border where before there was at least some semblance of order. The Israeli military is already depleted and overstretched after a year of Gaza genocide and its ill-fated Lebanon incursion. Being forced to contend with a new Syrian civil war will stretch its resources even thinner.
Is Russia a winner or a loser? Its involvement in Syria was in pursuit of three major goals (and some minor ones). First, it destroyed ISIS before it could reach Russia’s borders, succeeding where the Americans had failed. Second, it tested out its air force and a number of new weapons systems. Third, Russia’s stunning success gave the Americans great pause, buying Russia almost a decade during which to prepare for the inevitable conflict in the Ukraine and putting itself in better shape economically and militarily to fight off the inevitable onslaught when the Americans decided to finally launch their Donbass Genocide proxy war in early 2022. By all of these measures, Russia’s involvement in Syria was a huge success.
Dimitry Orlov’s view .
Russia had no feet on the ground . There was no treaty like Moscow now has with Pyongyang . Moscow and Damascus had no article 5 arrangement . Moscow did a pre emptive action which was to avoid making Syria a ” no fly zone ” by the West like they did in Yugoslavia .
Sorry , forgot Iran .
Iran, on the other hand, does look like a loser in all of this. The Shia Crescent, which Iran had painstakingly constructed, and which ran from Aleppo to Yemen, is now in disarray and Hezbollah, which was its main fighting force, is much weakened. What is to become now of the Islamic Revolution that is a key part of Iranian state ideology? Will it have to give up on it and concentrate on more mundane tasks? On the one hand, export of the Islamic Revolution is something of a vanity project; it doesn’t exactly pay its own bills and is more of an expensive hobby than a must-have. On the other hand, ideology is important and if the Iranian state loses a key element of its ideology, it may lose some of the passion and commitment of its people along with it.
Dimitry Orlov .
So Israel takes all the land it wants. The US encouraged to wage more war, and terrorist central established and soon to spread to Central Asia. The whole world intimidated and now Brics is a distant dream. Typical Orlov. He is as salaried as they come.
Alex Krainer seems to make a very measured analysis and good points on this video which I watched in its entirety. As I posted earler, I think Putin realizes that Russia’s best strategy is to conserve energy,material, manpower and to anticipate that attacks on Russia will never cease, and that other countries, especially the West, will be eyeing its resources. Even China I think will eventually doublecross Russia. Treachery is everywhere.
The amount of oil to be gained in Syria is not worth the cost to Russia of rescuing Syria, especially when Russia has plenty of its own.
In my mind, Putin has to decide just how much UKR will he have to annex to protect Russia vs the cost of maintaining control of the anexed areas , especially if some are not ethnic Russians? There is no good solution.
>> Even China I think will eventually double-cross Russia. Treachery is everywhere.
Likely, if they can get away with it. Otherwise, they will just trade finished goods for resources, which seems to make them happy enough.
You and Ivan are both correct. And now Russia has sort of betrayed Iran, the one power that does not betray. It is difficult to list all the ramifications of this debacle. Re: China, it will be told to expand South, or else there will be war.
I’m not sure that I agree with that. Iran is the biggest loser, but it sounds like perhaps even they were unwilling to send major ground forces because Assad had distanced itself from both Iran and Russia. At least that’s what I read … how true it is, who knows.
They should have had a chain of command Hezbollah style. at the very least.
This video seems to suggest (among other things) that the current Biden administration is doing its best to kick off World War III, even before Trump is inaugurated. They want to be able to declare Marshall Law and prevent Biden’s inauguration.
“prevent Biden’s inauguration.”
Huh?
Oops. Trump’s inauguration.
Has he said anything to that effect? Hindustan Times reports Erdo is sending refugees *back* to Syria now.
Too many people for resources in too many areas of the world.
drb , Benji just added Golan Heights to the state of Israel and it is only 48 hours .
https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20241210-netanyahu-says-golan-heights-will-always-be-part-of-israel/
The HT video is only reporting what Erdogan said . Nothing concrete . He says he will ask the refugees to return voluntarily . Return to what ? Chaos and hunger . The reality is look at the borders of Syria
1. Lebanon — already destroyed
2. Israel — a Syrian must be crazy
3. Iraq — first it is far from where the populace is and then it is Shia while 73% of the Syrian Muslims are Sunni .
4 . Turkey — only alternative . At least humanitarian missions are providing food TODAY and no one is shooting at you .
Erdogan has got himself a load of trouble notwithstanding the fact that he has double crossed Vladimir Putin who gave him prior information on the coup .
“Why Not Space? Posted on 2011-10-12”?
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/10/why-not-space/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
This is a post by Tom Murphy. He is a physics professor at the University of California at San Diego. I met him at a Biophysical Economics conference once. https://tmurphy.physics.ucsd.edu
His personal page, linked above says,
In this post, Tom explains why space likely isn’t an answer to our energy problems. He ends the post with the following:
lf activities in space generate more energy than they consume, if manufacturing in space is possible with excess energy generated, then it is a seeming no brainer.
We don’t have a future with fossil fuels, that is a given. What is not a given is Next.
Musk is building a fourth launch tower, incredible sums of money are being invested; they know something and something is better than nothing.
Dennis L.
Let’s know the something that Musk knows is not simply endless subsidies.
“illusions of space as the answer to our collision course of growth on a finite planet. ”
If you are in space, you are no longer on a finite planet. You are, however, in a finite solar system and should not forget it. On the other hand, if what we see at the 24 stars around Tabby’s star is aliens, there are a lot of stars to colonize.
you cant colonize stars.
if a star happens to have a planet in orbit around it—in the ‘goldilocks zone’ together with all the other necessary attributes, (water and vegetation etc) then you can be 100% certain that other critters will have evolved there.
that being the case, either their defence mechanism will overwhelm us
or our defence mechanism will overwhelm them.
(Which is what happened in the ‘new world’)
all hogwash anyway—we aint going nowhere.
“in the ‘goldilocks zone’”
When I was working out the orbit of the thing that blocks 22% of the light from Tabby’s star, I was surprised to see how far out it was. The distance is consistent with the measured 65 deg Kelvin. Then I realized that there is a computational zone out much further than the zone for liquid water.
Low temperature reduces the error rates for computation.
Not saying this is what is going on at Tabby’s star, but I think this might be the first time someone recognized that there is a “computational zone.”
Keith
just like Gails room heater—-you need a heat source to warm where you happen to be
suns give out either too much or too little—you cant live on venus or mars
or just like goldilocks—a small sliver of ”just right”…..ie earth.
something ”out there” that no one understands, cant substitute for that—-it will remain just a fantasy–a daydream,—playscience where you plug the gaps of your ignorance with wishful certainties.
where you do your academic reputation a disservice.
“you cant live on venus or mars”
Humans would have a hard time on Mars, but the Curiosity rover has been there 12 years.
Our machines can deal with cold. The error rate for a computer goes down as you reduce the temperature. So does the power needed to operate the computer.
” academic reputation”
I am an engineer, not a scientist. Engineers very seldom have an academic reputation.
Interstellar space travel is way beyond our abilities, utterly fictional. So it turns out are commercial nuclear fusion power stations and fast breeder reactors. I’ve always enjoyed reading ‘The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy’ though.
Oil in the 1950s was the only energy source which was nearly ‘too cheap to meter’. It isn’t so cheap now that we’ve used up the easiest 60% of it.
Possibly the reason we had manned space travel in the 1960s and early 70s is that conventional oil output in the ‘Lower 48’ peaked in 1970 and that EROEI was relatively high.
Tim Morgan quotes some EROEIs on his blog and tries to predict the future. They’re declining faster than I thought they might, i.e. quite worrying.
i agree
and if anything on the moon had been commercially viable—business interests would have been there by the mid 70s.
they weren’t—which should explain why nobodys been back there….and apart from maybe a vanity trip by the chinese, maybe even the americans, no one ever will.
we earthlings no longer have sufficient surplus energy reserves for manned splace flight
“Interstellar space travel is way beyond our abilities,”
I was on a zoom meeting last night where Robert Kennedy https://www.linkedin.com/in/robert-g-kennedy-iii-pe-k3tvo-4b99554/ reported on their second NASA award for Interstellar Research Group https://irg.space/
I agree that it is currently beyond our ability to send people, but sending machines to report back does seem to be possible. Not easy, I grant you that, but “utterly fictional” seems a bit much given the active planning by competent engineers.
humankind launched 2 space probes back in the 70s.
as of now they have got beyond our solar system, and into interstellar space, it’s taken half a human lifespan.
is there anything on the remotely practical horizon to indicate than we can move objects faster than that—-no wish science please.
The people who work on this expect to hit 20% of c or higher pushed by lasers. Very light structures. I can follow what they propose, but am not an expert on the subject.
”expect to hit” bothers me somewhat.
i am picking up the unmistakeable aroma of wish science.
my lack of knowledge on all this i freely admit, but if an object travelling at even 20% light speed hits so much as a grain of sand, wont the result be nothing short of catastrophic—even supposing they get anywhere near that speed?
“a grain of sand”
That’s been accounted for. The plan is to send a whole batch of these very thin vehicles with the expectation that some of them will fail.
It not my area of expertise, but the physics seems sound. Lots of engineering and financing problems though.
A spacecraft carrying humans is just an extension of the finite earth. It didnt come from space.
no
a spacecraft has its air water people and food on the inside
Earth has air water people and food on the outside
Actually earth has air, water, people and food inside its magnetic field. They wouldn’t be here without it.
I must enrol on the same course where you got your PHd in nitpicking guest
Talk about projection!
Nobody uses finer tweezers than Norman.
nitpickers are always borrowing them Tim
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/storm-darragh-leaves-uk-s-biggest-solar-farm-in-pieces/ar-AA1vyCVI?ocid=BingNewsSerp
“Hundreds of panels at the giant 190-acre Porth Wen solar farm in Anglesey, North Wales – only built two years ago – were blown off their mountings, some ripped to shreds.”
“The site at Llanbadrig, in the north of the island which is owned by French power firm EDF Energy and powers up to 9,500 households, now needs significant repairs.”
It doesn’t say what percentage of solar panels were destroyed but the damage looks extensive. Photos are proved in the article. A wind turbine was also destroyed.
* provided
What about the pollution from those smashed solar panels?
Costs factored in?
I guess we should thank our lucky stars that that wind didn’t blow away a nuclear plant. That would have been even messier to clean up.
We need our oil powered system to do much of the clean up work. And our coal system to make more solar panels. And we need international trade, to keep the whole system going. Calling these devices “renewable” is a stretch.
Diligently researched and documented,convincingly argued.
My biggest take from this text is that the liberal society is fading and we are driven to more autocratic leaderships around the World. Bigger Wars in new war forms are probable
Unfortunately, you are correct.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vNslLlpvQ0
The tariff act of 1887! Go Donald.
Donald Trump lays out all of the energy plans he wants to put in place. He doesn’t seem to realize that the cheap fossil fuels needed to do them are not available. He also talks about getting rid of the Green New Deal (which he calls the Green New Scam).
There is a banner that plays saying the whatever Trump is saying may not be true.
He talks about doing all industry related to military in house. More generally everything in house. The only issue is energy.
He doesn’t have a plan. It’s just waffle.
I’m starting to see a lot of cornucopia stories out there… zero hedge has one that the depression was long because of mistakes. The U.S can add more to its debt they will be the last horse in the glue factory as Nicole foss always said. But for how long I’m not sure . China’s economy must really be slowing….anyone have more information on China?
Shenzhen’s employment problem is exploding, and graduates from famous universities can’t find jobs
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=FTZhlQXofWY&t=223s&pp=2AHfAZACAQ%3D%3D
China Deep Dive
Shenzhen, once seen as a city of opportunities, is now facing an unprecedented employment crisis in 2024. Job seekers from across China are finding it increasingly difficult to secure stable work, even in this first-tier city. With rising unemployment, layoffs in major companies, and growing financial pressures, the struggles of workers, students, and families in Shenzhen paint a challenging picture of modern urban life.
From the rise of gig economy jobs to the pressures faced by art graduates and seasoned professionals alike, this video dives into the stories behind Shenzhen’s employment woes, exploring:
The impact of mass layoffs and company closures.
The difficulties of low wages and high living costs.
The growing number of workers forced to return to their hometowns.
The stark contrasts between Shenzhen’s prosperity and its hidden struggles in urban villages.
Watch to uncover the harsh realities of Shenzhen’s job market in 2024 and hear directly from those navigating these turbulent times.
Another video about how bad China’s employment situation is now. This video specifically mentions the problems that art majors are having finding employment, now that AI is providing art work almost free.
The World3 model says population begins to decline NOW!
I was looking at industrial output; decline seems very steep in 2025. Thoughts?
Dennis L.
Agree Denise , it is already in a steep decline so the question is the speed of decline and when does the system become untenable .
I think that could end up being accurate. By the looks of it multiple huge multinational car companies will be taking a dirt nap in 2025.
That would not surprise me at all.
I’m sure the following selection of countries with births now below replacement rate would surprise many:
India, Bangladesh, Turkey, Iran, Thailand, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Tunisia.
It is lengths of life as much as births that affect population. Immigration affects which countries get the new births.
‘Moses discovered that no migration, no drama, no spectacle, no myth, and no miracles could turn slaves into free men. It cannot be done. So he led the slaves back into the desert, and waited forty years until the slave generation died, and a new generation, desert born and bred, was ready to enter the promised land. ‘
Slaves to a certain scientific dogma are a barrier to new information; hence science progresses one funeral a t a time.
That’s really interesting. Thanks for sharing.
I haven’t read very much about china or marx and communism in general. So correct me if I’m wrong. But it was my understanding that marx argued basically the same thing in essence. That the rural peasant class could never become class conscious. And Mao thought differently, thought they were sort of a clean slate, since they didn’t have much education and weren’t ideologist. And obviously, used them for his uprising or whatever. And that’s why he’s such a hero in China. I assume other reasons too. Because he sorta broke the curse of whatever like the moses story.
It’s one thing to be a slave when transportation is by mule and donkey, and tools are brooms, hoes,and sycthes vs staying in a rural agarian lifestyle,heating with wood and having to haul well water versus a modern life filled with conveniences, electric wall sockets, faucets, toasters, TVs, planes, fancy cars etc.
In those earlier times a slave could escape to the wilderness, to the frontier. Now it’s not so easy.
“The mountains are high and the Emperor is far away”
Chinese saying.
Those days will come again.
“The ideas of the ruling class are in every age the ruling ideas” – Marx
Science is socially mediated und always expresses the wishes of the power structure. Theories, hypotheses are continually arising and competing for funding. Those which are in accord with the wishes of power will receive that funding.
Status competition takes place for places within the dominance hierarchy. The ideas which carry the most prestige in a social structure are those which reflect the wishes of those who hold power, therefore those who adapt their expressed opinions and ideas to accord with that will have a competitive advantage in the struggle for status.
I’m sure we can all think of examples.
I am afraid that you are right. The people in power put together the narratives that they want people to believe.
We are at a turning point now, because the voters would like to get rid of those in power. No one can change to the real narrative because it is too frightening. So, assuming the change goes as planned, we will be transitioning to a somewhat different, but still not right, narrative.
From Nature briefing.
Exactly what makes H5N1 so concerning
The label ‘2.3.4.4b’ refers to the clade of the H5N1 avian influenza virus that has been ripping through populations of birds and wild animals since 2021, and is now sweeping through cattle in the United States. But the H5N1 virus has been on scientists’ pandemic radar since it killed six people in Hong Kong in 1997. That’s given researchers time to get its measure, revealing the virus’s potential weak points, and what might trigger a dangerous shift in its ability to infect and harm people.
Science | 8 min read
Opinion
‘I ran Warp Speed; now I worry about bird flu’
Former US chief science officer David Kessler, who co-led the country’s wildly successful ‘Operation Warp Speed’ COVID-19 vaccine-development programme, says the US government must track the risk of H5N1 avian influenza with similar zeal. Right now, the risk is low to people who are not in contact with animals, but he sees worrying signs that the virus could mutate and start to spread between humans.
The United States is already stockpiling enough doses of a vaccine to inoculate its farmworkers, but the current version is only moderately effective. Better vaccines and treatments are needed, says Kessler.
It’s estimated that in California, as many as half the dairy farms harbour H5N1 infections. Kessler recommends that people drink pasteurized milk (not ‘raw’) to protect themselves. And milk should be tested in bulk to better understand and contain the virus’s spread.
The New York Times | 6 min read
Scare people as much as possible.
Another IQ test.
The same ones that failed the last test are likely to be front of line for the next experimental warped-Jab.
‘ Additionally, scientific journals would publish highly misleading presentations of private data sources which were used to claim the vaccines were safe. The best example of this was the CDC’s V-Safe data. This app was created to track the symptoms of vaccine recipients so their safety could be accurately researched, but then was never made public (until ICAN obtained it through lawsuits). Beyond the FOIA database showing the vaccines were extremely harmful, we also determined that the Lancet study, which was based on its data and used to prove the vaccines were “safe” was highly misleading and did not accurately present the V-Safe data.
https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/new-data-exposes-the-corruption-behind
‘For example, it was recently revealed that the Israeli government deliberately concealed concerning signs of vaccine safety so that it could push the vaccine through. Given that Israel’s government served as Pfizer’s laboratory for their vaccine, this was of immense consequence globally as governments around the world pushed the vaccine forward on the basis of Pfizer’s fraudulent safety data. Steve Kirsch also has been able to demonstrate that the CDC’s committee that determines the appropriateness of these vaccines is willfully ignoring this data.’
https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/we-now-have-clear-proof-the-vaccine
Go plonkers, the Kult ( ‘The Science’ ) welcomes you back for more.
“vaccines were safe.”
You have to be scientifically illiterate to think any vaccine is “safe.”
Some of them cause less problems than others, but the question at the policy level is on the relative damage the vaccine causes vs the disease. That’s why in the last decade before smallpox was wiped out they quit vaccinating for it in most countries. (Vaccinating for smallpox killed about one in a million.) Of course, that had consequences as well. Smallpox vaccine (cowpox) cross protects against mpox which has become a big problem.
Given how much the covid vaccine reduced the death rate and as important kept people out of expensive ICU, it could have a fairly high death and damage rate and *still* make sense to promote it to the population. It is all a numbers game.
It is all a numbers game.
Hmm, and I think your number is up. It has been a long time since you allowed the possibility that science has been hijacked.
If you have a water supply catchment for a city, there are a couple of approaches to getting clean water to the citizens. One, protect the catchment from development/degradation, or two, treat the compromised water after allowing said development. Science takes the we can fix it approach, ignoring the fact that their fellow scientists broke it in the first place. Anti-biotic resistance anyone?
I realise your rigidity won’t allow you to consider these articles; they would shatter your glass house (single glazed).
‘ The problem with left brain thinking is that it tends to lock one into a “solution” which excludes the best answer from being considered. For example, in medicine, I frequently see brilliant doctors who are remarkably skilled at executing their clinical algorithms but cannot help patients their algorithms simply aren’t applicable for. Likewise, I’ve lost count of how many people I’ve debated with whose logic starts from the premise there is no conceivable way any viewpoint besides their own could be right (which inevitably results in them concocting absurd arguments).’
https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/balanced-intelligence-and-knowledge
‘ During the COVID-19 rollout, patients gradually began to realize that some of the COVID-19 vaccines were more dangerous than others. Initially this was written off as a conspiracy theory. However, as time moved forward, and more evidence emerged to support the “hot lot” hypothesis there was an increasing acceptance of this theory.
At the time, the most common theory I heard raised to account for this was that a large global experiment was being done to assess the effects of various mRNA doses (e.g., one researcher was able to show that the hot lots of each COVID vaccine brand hit the market at different times in a manner that seemed to be coordinated between the manufacturers and that Pfizer’s lots contained a simple code that correlated to their toxicity).’
https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/the-century-of-forgotten-hot-lot
“the possibility that science has been hijacked.”
By who?
“fellow scientists broke it in the first place. Anti-biotic resistance anyone?”
I know this subject. To the extent you can apportion blame, it is the farmers in first place. Natural selection did the rest.
“any viewpoint besides their own ”
I bought into evolutionary psychology after reading Moral Animal (1994). The view there was that our psychological traits were shaped in the stone age. In 2007 I ran into Gregory Clark’s work where he make a case for much more recent selection for the psychological traits leading to wealth. I have certainly changed my mind as a result of good arguments, especially if they are backed up by evidence.
“COVID-19 vaccines were more dangerous than others. Initially this was written off as a conspiracy theory.”
If true, and I doubt it, I would write it off as sloppy production. Given how many less important matters have come out into the open over the years, I doubt intentional “hot lots” was done. Not impossible, just not likely.
With no liability for the vaccine producers, quality control seemed to be terrible.
“quality control seemed to be terrible.”
You might be right, but I don’t have any data. Do you?
There are economic reasons to get the dose right. The synthetic RNA is expensive to make so using more than needed is going to cut into profits. Using less than an effective dose is going to show up as poor protection and be detected that way.
Maybe, but you can generally trust people to get it right if getting it wrong cost them more.
safe and effective were the terms used by ‘ leading scientists and leading science journals’ during the covid scam.
Keep up Keith.
“The phrase “safe and effective” was adopted by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to indicate that a drug or device has met their standards and can be sold … ” dated 2003.
The references I can find in the journals indicate that the phrase has a political origin, though in fact the covid vaccines (all of them) were effective to some degree in reducing deaths from covid, especially in the early days.
“Safe” is a slippery term in vaccine testing. Smallpox vaccine is (as far as I know) still approved. The US has a substantial stock of it even though it is well understood that people die from it. If there were an outbreak of smallpox, it would be used without hesitation in spite of the downsides because the disease is fatal in so many cases.
Because of the numbers of immune suppressed people, the deaths from a mass vaccination for smallpox in the US could run into thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands. It would still be “safe” by FDA standards.
At least one the downsides of the covid vaccines was anticipated. I don’t know if you got it, but those who did were required to hang around for 15 or 20 minutes to see if they had a bad immediate reaction. I don’t know or know of anyone who keeled over, but it surely happened. The administration of the vaccine did not include checking to see if the needle hit a vein. (For cost reasons I presume.)
“Questions about Vaccination to Ask your Doctor” ?
https://www.vernoncoleman.com/main.htm
I wouldn’t bother wasting your time with Keith. It doesn’t matter what evidence you show him, he will refuse to look(been there).
As to the “Safe & Effective” lie, don’t forget the true enormity of the original lie, because they didn’t just claim “Safe & Effective”, they claimed “100% Safe & Effective”. A scientific impossibility(Keith even pointed this out, although in a misguided defence of the chemical death industry).
Here’s one example.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qlhgk9VwhKI&pp=ygUYMTAwICUgc2FmZSBhbmQgZWZmZWN0aXZl
Maybe Keith would like to explain why that also wasn’t a lie, because they all said it(go to utube and type in the above lie and there they all are) and he apparently believed it without question, but now has the audacity to question others ability to read and understand science.
Mathematics, that’s more his thing, so looking from that angle might be easier for him to grasp and someone has already mentioned professor Norman Fenton. There is also professor Bhaskaran Raman who wrote a book about the mathematical absurdity of the official numbers.
“They must know how the adults on the planet abandoned reason for madness, rationality for fear, and basic math for obvious absurdity”.
https://x.com/br_cse_iitb/status/1587379250008854528
“Given how much the covid vaccine reduced the death rate and as important kept people out of expensive ICU”
Once again, what on earth are you talking about? How does a messenger RNA sequence injected into the arm protect against a respiratory disease? How do antibodies cross the lung-blood barrier?
Once again, the manufacturers of the lipid nano particles expressly stated they were research materials not suitable for human use.
” injected into the arm protect against a respiratory disease?”
Measles is a respiratory disease, at least it spreads that way. The MMR vaccine is injected. Does this suggest anything to you?
“How do antibodies cross the lung-blood barrier?”
Is there such a thing? News to me. If there is, a cite would be appreciated. Maybe you are thinking of the blood-brain barrier?
“research materials”
Faced with a desperate need to get the economy working again, governments (a bunch of them) made the decision to use this approach. Note, if you will, it was not mandatory. If you remember, in the first days the vaccine was available people offered $25,000 to jump the line.
There is a fair chance bird flu will cause the next pandemic, trash the economy, fill refrigerator trucks with bodies outside hospitals, etc. over the next six months. Chances are the vaccine will cause a few people to drop dead and some to get GB syndrome. Knowing this, what will you do?
Keith, it’s news to you that there is mechanism in your body that prevents blood from entering your lungs?
How do you think your body manages the exchange of oxygen from your alveoli to your red blood cells? Magic?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blood%E2%80%93air_barrier
“Knowing this, what will you do?”
Ignore it, just like I did last time.
“prevents blood from entering your lungs?”
If you mean blood going into the airspace inside the lungs, of course. If you mean blood flowing to the lungs as an organ, no.
“Scare people”
Strange place to put it. As a guess, fewer than one person in 1000 reads anything from Nature or Science.
Its called building the narrative.
These so-called leading journals lay the foundation and provide the manure for the lamestream media to fling about when required.
“leading journals”
Do you read any of the science journals? Can you?
There are quite a few OFW commenters who are very good with the medical scientific lingo. I don’t expect every commenter to be.
stay on subject. He said they are building the narrative. That means providing a web link to be used in whatever mainstream site when they are ready. whether he reads them or not is immaterial.
Building the narrative . A new one in the pipeline .
https://www.zerohedge.com/medical/here-comes-disease-x-outbreak
The same view trickles down through the mainstream media. Trickles down as something to be very afraid of. There will be some magic solution that science will come up with for this, for which you will be willing to pay lots of money.
“pay lots of money.”
Flu vaccines have been around a long time and are cheap.
I guess it comes down to reporting the concerns of the public health people. I suppose laws could be passed to prevent worries about flu being discussed. Of course it is difficult to cover up a shortage of chicken and eggs or the high death rate of people who have had it back in the 1990s.
Maybe RFK will just eliminate public health departments entirely.
That would be the ideal outcome.
Almost all the health decisions that matter happen when food shopping.
Going to the doctor is like going to the panelbeater; the bad decisions have already been made.
You dig your (early) grave with your teeth.
The War on Terror, The War on Drugs, The War on Viruses.
Each of them institutionalises a large apparatus of social control and entrench bureaucracies, both corporate and governmental, feeding off of public cash flows.
None of them have any interest in the war ending.
If the authorities really cared about the health of Americans, wouldn’t they take rapid and drastic action to lower the levels of obesity and diabetes?
“take rapid and drastic action to lower the levels of obesity and diabetes?”
Any suggestion as to what “drastic action” to take?
Why is it a strange way to put it when that’s exactly what it will do? Legacy media will start sign-signing posting to articles such as this, likely financed by the pharmaceutical companies.
I never get tired of watching this one. It’s as good a Laurel and Hardy in their prime!