There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
Success of Argentina’s football copies its economic decline – I discussed with Gemini which providied this:
Football as an Escape Route: Extreme economic hardship makes football one of the few viable paths to social mobility, creating a massive pool of highly driven and mentally resilient players.
Early Export of Talent: The struggling domestic economy forces young players to move to Europe early on, where their raw talent is perfected by elite infrastructure, technology, and tactical training.
Psychological Outlet: Amidst failing institutions and inflation, football serves as the ultimate source of national pride, channeling the frustration of an entire nation into immense emotional drive on the pitch.
Meritocratic Management: In stark contrast to the country’s political and economic instability, the national team operates as a rare, highly pragmatic, and well-managed meritocracy.
https://share.gemini.google/5fD7emVMF0Ik
Interesting!
I’m from Buenos Aires, Argentina. My ancestors emigrated there from mostly Great Britain some Germany) in the late 1800/early 1900’s. My parents emigrated to the USA in their 20’s and then went to Aruba (where I was born) and then Venezuela. My dad is refinery engineer. When I was 10 we moved to USA. Buenos Aires is a beautiful city, however, I always got so depressed seeing the children begging on the streets. Ethnically, they were indigenous. My family was considered upper middle class and lived well. I made friends with a family in the lower middle class. Even though, they lived in a small apartment with adult children, they seemed very happy. You feel like you are in Europe. They have full medical coverage. I remember my friend getting a bad flu and she had an ambulance come to the apartment to treat her. There was a strong sense of community and no need for a car as the public transportation system is excellent. There are stores, bars, restaurants all easy to access. They have much less, but their lives seem richer than here for some reason. I can’t explain it. The only bad thing is to see the very poor. That’s how I feel now when I see the homeless where I live in Portland Oregon.
Success of its soccer this time –
Peter Thiel wants Patagonia, and while the Argentinians are enraptured by soccer victory, Milleikowski signs the 999 year lease of Patagonia with Thiel
Praying for a taco.
It’s like being in a car when someone is driving crazy but they won’t pull over and let you out.
There is no pulling over and getting out.
https://youtu.be/p45G9hvdoZ8?si=yE8mXSBapJqqTNe0
Someone forgot the bridge anchor again.
The bungee is attached. It’s the first bungee jump of your life. You’re supposed to be scared and it’s supposed to feel like you might die. That’s the whole point of both bungee jumping and the BNS. The BNS doesn’t stop until everyone is screaming for an American military coup.
reante’s back on the coup horse. I think I might have got down off it for a little while there. Hand has some powerful mind games up its sleeve.
It feels like the Jenga game. I think the Middle East is too important for the the US Empire in terms of losing its hegemony. Oil is the hemoglobin of the global economic system.
True, for one thing: various Gulfies each own ~5% in BlackRock etc.
What if AI doesn’t need to hate humanity to destroy it?
One of the biggest misconceptions about artificial intelligence is that the danger comes from a malicious machine. According to AI safety researcher Dr. Roman Yampolskiy, the real risk is something far more unsettling: an AI that is simply pursuing its objective with extreme competence.
In this clip, Roman explains why advanced AI systems may become impossible to control, why good intentions aren’t enough to guarantee safety, and the question every AI company should be forced to answer before building more powerful models.
Strange isn’t it?
Russia still selling gas to EU
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/eus-russian-lng-imports-hit-record-high-ahead-2027-ban
Yet EU is bombing/droning Russia? EU is banning Russian gas but buying a lot now?
Maketh sense?
in memory of FE
Makes perfect sense according to the DA. Russia is a vassal bitch of the Hand just like every other country is. Huh drb? It’s all good, man, you chose a nice country to live in and you have sheep and a lot of ground and a handful of men who expect a regular paycheck lol. Might wanna start thinking about a sweat equity framework or some shit.
I know. I am worried about it. But it seems to me that Putin is on thin and thinner ice.
I agree, this is bizarre. If the EU can’t really afford to buy the LNG, Russia must be terrible, in some ways.
I think that the areas being bombed have to do with oil exports, not LNG exports. LNG comes by ship, through the Arctic Ocean from way up north in Russia. Production of the LNG seems to be far away from the areas being bombed.
https://www.caspianpolicy.org/research/security/live-map-of-russian-refineries-hit-ukrainian-drone-strikes-boost-caspian-energy
Russia’s oil is very heavy, so it has little natural gas.
Some analogy. Your neighbour keeps on kicking your dog and you spend a lot of money treating your dog. He tells you he dislikes you and starting from next month onwards, he does not want to buy eggs from you and you still sell eggs to him.
All sorts of trouble gets a lot worse if world leaders take things too personally.
Perhaps Trump’s personalization of the US’s Iran issue has made that a lot more insoluble?
This is how ChatGPT responded:
> Your question is essentially:
Why would Russia continue selling gas to countries that are supporting Ukraine militarily?
There are several reasons, and they aren’t mutually exclusive.
Money still matters, even during war.
Russia earns billions from energy exports. Those revenues help fund its government, military, and economy. From Moscow’s perspective, if European buyers are willing (and legally able) to pay, selling gas generates income that can outweigh the political symbolism of cutting them off.
Russia has not sought complete economic isolation.
Despite the war, Russia continues trading with many countries that oppose its actions. For example:
It sells oil and gas to countries that have criticized or sanctioned it (where permitted).
It exports uranium to some Western countries.
It imports various goods through third countries.
War does not necessarily mean all trade stops. Throughout history, states have often maintained limited commercial relationships with adversaries.
Gas can be a source of leverage.
Russia has used energy exports as a geopolitical tool for decades. Completely ending sales would eliminate a source of influence over European energy markets. Maintaining some exports can preserve leverage and create divisions among European states over energy policy.
Russia has already reduced some supplies.
It’s also worth noting that Russia did sharply reduce pipeline gas exports to much of Europe after 2022. So it hasn’t simply continued “business as usual.” The remaining exports are largely LNG and some pipeline deliveries to specific countries or routes.
There isn’t necessarily a contradiction from Russia’s perspective.
Governments often distinguish between military conflict and commercial interests. Russia may view continued sales as:
bringing in foreign currency,
helping finance its war effort,
and demonstrating that European countries still need Russian energy.
From that perspective, selling gas to Europe is not seen as “helping the enemy”; it’s seen as making the enemy pay Russia.
So the apparent contradiction can be framed two ways:
Europe’s perspective: “We need energy while we transition away from Russian supplies, even as we support Ukraine.”
Russia’s perspective: “If Europe wants to keep paying us billions despite supporting Ukraine, we’ll take the money.”
Neither side is necessarily acting according to a simple moral logic. Both are balancing strategic, economic, and political interests, which can produce outcomes that seem contradictory when viewed in isolation.
> Would it not be more harmful to EU for Russia to cut them off gas?
Potentially, yes—but it depends on the timeframe and what Russia is trying to achieve.
If Russia completely cut off all gas exports to the EU today:
In the short term, it could increase gas prices, especially during periods of high demand, and create difficulties for some European industries and countries that still rely on Russian LNG.
In the longer term, Russia would also lose a significant source of export revenue, while the EU would likely accelerate its shift to other suppliers. Europe has already reduced its dependence on Russian pipeline gas substantially since 2022 by importing more LNG from countries like the U.S. and Qatar, increasing renewable energy, and improving storage.
From Russia’s perspective, there’s a trade-off:
Benefits of cutting off gas:
Potentially higher energy prices in Europe.
Economic pressure on some European industries.
Political pressure within the EU if energy costs rise.
Costs of cutting off gas:
Loss of billions in export earnings.
Loss of market share that could be difficult to regain.
Incentivizing Europe to become permanently independent of Russian energy even faster.
There’s also another economic factor. If Russia voluntarily refuses to sell, Europe can simply buy from someone else over time. Once buyers invest in new LNG terminals, pipelines, and long-term contracts with alternative suppliers, Russia may not easily win those customers back after the conflict.
So whether cutting off gas would be “more harmful” depends on the metric:
If the goal is maximizing immediate disruption to Europe, a complete cutoff could impose additional costs.
If the goal is maximizing Russia’s own economic resources while retaining some leverage, continuing to sell some gas can make more sense.
This is why many analysts describe energy during the Russia–Ukraine war as a strategic balancing act rather than a simple “all trade stops” situation. Both Russia and the EU have accepted economic costs while trying to avoid the most damaging outcomes for themselves.
Robot acting like it’s still 2025.
Fe deja vu
Not even Babe Ruth hit 100.
However, exemptions built into the regulation have allowed European buyers to maintain or even accelerate their intake of Russian gas before a complete blanket ban takes effect on January 1, 2027.
Does this mean it’s all over red rover on this date.
Pepe Escobar: Yemen Joins the War, and the Entire Middle East Could Go Up in Flames
Brutal loss for Mighty England..
lil Germany moves on!
Well it was a German coach who led it
Michigan we have 90f heatdome + diarrhea flu + Canadian Wildfire smoke.
Like a Gas Chamber!
First you got gaslit, now you get gas chambered. Can it get any worse?
some rando on x wrote
“Welcome to Michigan. You’ll sh** your paints, breathe in some poison or have heat stroke. But at least your dead grandparents can still vote here.”
LOL
Yeah well the 2020 clown show steal was just a clown show steal so that nobody would notice the 2024 steal by other means.
The majority don’t even vote. Look at NYC mayor election. 75% didn’t even vote.
Election fraud is just a false alarm to justify “Digital ID”.
The sky is on fire! Here in New York State the sky is a bright orange due to the smoke from Canadian forest fires.
Often times atmospheric pressure or specific densities in the lower atmosphere ( close to terrain ) tend to perform strange phenomena. For example, in recent dayz over CEE we have had ample powerful storm – flashes visible as bouncing of such inter-layering of air in very strange fashion, that it was visible at 500-1000km distance, i.e. seemingly ~evading several hard limits: curvature of the Earth and plain (max) visibility at distance.
Say from Bavaria/Austria visible storm flashes taking place in dense cluster weather front over Eastern Germany/Polish border. Not unlike as if giants out there are playing there as kids with their flash lights and we ants in awe just speculate over the possible phenomena origins..
As relatives recall(ed) seeing that (in)famous Dresden air bomber campaign during WWII, which was visible across large part of Europe thanks to the ( similar?) combo of sheer intensity of fires-explosions and the cooperating weather amplifying-reflecting it into upper atmosphere layers – hence very large distance visibility.
“There is an infinite amount of hope in the universe … but not for us”. -Franz Kafka
Correction on my part, this is slightly different thing across CAN/US developing now, chiefly just smoke product tint produced in the skies.
( NOT directly reflected visual fires / flash storms as in our case ).
pic: https://shorturl.at/iOXM7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQMhK0eOM9A
Barrels To Bread: The War In Iran Has Changed In Nature (16:18)
13,086 views Jul 15, 2026
Every day, a little more infrastructure is hit: first water, then again, now food. Lines are crossed that never go back.
Refining capacity is now a major issue:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/jpm-big-question-no-longer-about-hormuz-and-oil-its-all-about-refining-and-russia
JPM: The Big Question Is No Longer About Hormuz And Oil, It’s All About Refining And Russia
. . .the question is no longer whether crude barrels will return, but how quickly the global refining system can process them. There, three major uncertainties stand out:
–the extent of damage to Middle Eastern refining infrastructure after months of conflict,
–the timing of a policy-driven recovery in Chinese refinery runs,
–the pace at which Russia’s refining system recovers from repeated Ukrainian drone attacks
Chart of Russia’s reduced refining capacity. Reduction was 1.5 million bpd relative to 2025 level.
The Hand is obviously going to have to err on the side of caution (leave some margin for error) with respect to battling the unassailable ELM of Collapse because a minimum level of redundancy has to be built into Phase 2 of the DA because of unintended consequences and just plain bad luck. Doing so presumably means leaving somewhat more global refining capacity that its expectations for Phase 2 global oil production, as well as intelligent of refineries that focus on storage facilities or whatever.
intelligent targeting of refineries
There are many would of shoulda coulda of Trump’s decision to take the Iran war kinetic. It is a classic catastrophic military blunder where momentum is valued over analysis. The refusal of the capitulation deal offered by Teheran just prior to the war also a mind boggling catastrophic blunder in hindsight. There is no going back.
What sort of dish has this created cooking on the stove? It has brought forth the unspoken truth about nuclear weapons. The veneer is they exist only to deter a existential threat that is kinetic in nature. The reality is war is not solely kinetic but is also economic and always has been. Trump’s blunder has brought us to the cusp. Is Bush’s statement the American standard of living is not negotiable unequivocally true? If so can it be quantified? Access to affordable energy is standard of living. Carter doctrine. Carter was hardly a Trump but he also bore the burden of bearing the bag of expectations.
There are expectations for Trump’s actions and they are held by all political party’s. Trump is the expectation bag holder. He is now in the salvage business and he holds not a scalpel but a Bowie knife.
Those in the beltway and even many citizens have no fear. Not that citizens have much say but they do influence expectations. Fear is commonly regarded as debilitating the worst liability. IMO this is a grave mistake. Fear is also regarded as only a tool of manipulation. Certainly often manipulators seek to create something that resembles fear but is not fear. These perspectives result in rejection of fear as if it is something that is foreign to us. Reality is fear is installed in us genetically for very good reasons. It enables appropriate action in critical situations. It is a vital and sudden way of understanding. Rejecting fear is to reject myself.
Cowardice is not experiencing fear but unwillingness to experience it’s unpleasantness. Only ego and unfamiliarity make it unpleasant. Fear is regarded as the worst of all states paralyzed ego disabled. Fear is regarded as a barrior to the goals established by ego and often by exceptionalism. In reality fear is often a divine gift disabling ego operating system when existential threat is present.
Sometimes people become obsessed with turning on the fear tap abusing it creating it artificially in order to dominate it with ego seeking to reinforce the belief that only ego exists.
A significant part of military conditioning is a attempt to make sure fear is always channeled into destruction. At the lowest levels this is aggression. More advanced levels it is more disciplined. But it is never casual. That I not what fear is.
Recently a young woman in the prime of her life decided to bungee jump in Brazil. A large crowd was there to witness the event. Four young men carried her to the edge of a very high bridge and tossed her over the side. Not a single person observing nor facilitators of the event noticed the bungee had failed to be anchored to the bridge.
Yeah, that video of the young Brazilian girl was worse! The bungee cord rope was just on the ground and EVERYONE there forgot to check and see if it was attached to her ankles!!! I was not…you got to see it on video.
Several have been charged and a number present tried to run and hid in the nearby forest…total blindness and assuming it was taken care of.
What do the say about “assuming”, it “makes an axss out of you and me”.
Yes, amazing the calm at this moment here in the US just before being thrown off the cliff.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/k6JOU4eRSVk
Too many cooks spoil the broth: one person only should be designated to check that all is in order, and a proper routine followed. Preferably an older man not involved in the throwing. Pretty simple.
IMO well over 50 percent of survival skill comes from the ability to speak the word no to attractive females. :). In the above case no I’m not going throw you off a bridge would have served those young men well
Few men can survive Woman unscathed!
White Goddess and all that……
I read various versions of this failure and apparently in this case there was a failure of standard procedure in which there was redundant step check was assumed to be done. Suppose it was just a lapse of attention and distraction . Whatever the case, it happened and happens more often than we like to have.
That’s why in aviation there is a strict pre flight check list that MUST be done which “Lucky Lindy” Lindbergh created and has worked to this day.
Even then, there are isolated incidents that have happened which caused a mishap or two.
Yes. Insane there was not a safety officer with absaloute authority and a hard written check list. Then the group energy thing manifested. It does things. You need someone solid with authority for stuff like that to damp the group even if they are counterculture. Actually way better if they are counterculture with that group. Still I would have said no way you want to fly you step off I’m not tossing you. Funny thing if your actually thinking asserting yourself aware of situations you get respect. Mostly.
As soon as they mention they want to exit a perfectly good airplane or the like I’m gone. I’ve learned not my type.
I must just say. Not anchored. Seriously? No one caught that? I would have been conducting a structural analysis of that anchor. Picture of it on the fridge. For a dog run.
A British army officer of great experience – not sure if he was SAS or not, but elite anyway – killed himself when he pushed into a mini-sub exercise, the sergeant in charge of safety, etc, didn’t dare to over-rule him, due to his rank, and he got in the sub, went out into the lake and drowned.
Something similar happened on an SAS course when a major joined in on a winter exercise on the spur of the moment and died from hypothermia due to lack of basic winter gear.
Don’t think you are so fit that Death can’t get you……
Most amusing and instructive. Obey the rules!
Nate Hagens re: international shipping issues. A good overview if you have time to spare.
Old 3 mile limit determined by range of cannons. Now expanded to 12 miles.
US never signed treaty re: exemption of territorial limits for those countries involved in trade who require open seas for their economies.
Sal Mercogliano starts by saying that cutting off oil supply because of shipping constraints is like clamping off the blood supply in your leg. The problem is reversible if it only lasts a short time. But if it lasts very long, the whole system will tend to change.
As the new affordable weapons technologies proliferate everywhere is a choke point. Just about any vessel can carry a surveillance UAV and a strike UAV. Very little of that will actually be needed. Vessels will need to stay far from land and enforcement will be needed as they approach load and unload in areas with adversaries or those with economic motives. Atypically organizations providing protection aka security encounter competition once established While geophysical features in concert with force capabilities create toll opportunities at first affordable technology creates those same opportunities with much wider geophysical requirements. Previously high investment cost and restricted technology prevented freelancers. Aggressive enforcement to the detriment of free passage as witnessed in recent history will be necessary once proliferation occurs. Once deterrence is compromised paying tolls becomes extremely cost effective compared to enforcement over large geographical areas. The new technologies mean a geophysical anomaly is not needed for a toll booth. In fact a fixed localized geographic location is a liability not a asset for toll collection. Just make sure those deposits are made in that Bitcoin account. Bandits don’t have to stay at the pass anymore nor do they actually have to rob the train. Irans insistence on paperwork is political in nature. The values of the cargo are large and local entities will want a cut if such things are to pass through the area where they wield authority. South American cartel example setting will make IRGC look like mother Teressa. If the world’s best navy can’t keep a vessel for 20 miles how the heck can they ensure safety for 1000? It’s impossible because you have to eliminate 100 percent of the chance. Anything less and you might as well pay the toll. Nor is surveiling and destroying every fishing boat cost effective let alone morally or strategically acceptable.
In Asia this can be as simple as the local police throwing some 2×4 across the road when the tourist bus comes by. Nor is it unusual In the least for local talent in central and south America to do the same. Billion dolar cargo values and new technologies and enforcement realities will create tolls worldwide wherever force and authority exist. Very little of the risk previous low technology pirates have had to take exists with tolls. Just make sure that Bitcoin is there amigo.
While minor in comparison to the energy and SHTF considerations lots of cats have exited the bag from Trump’s blunders.
Awesome scenario. The Pacific Ocean is a strait now. Hawaii can be a pirate island. So can little Johnny’s tree fort in Topeka, Kansas.
Deterrence is always largely psychological. It works because everyone understands order is desirable. Once the veil is pierced some organizations get to thinking about profit opportunities. Other organizations that desire greater authority get to thinking. Molecules rush into vacuum. The cats out of the bag are meowing loudly.
Enforcement creates law. Law creates justice. Justice allows community consciousness. Order is created
This contrasts with tribal society where community consciousness is the begining. There is no law. Community consciousness as directed by elders is law. Not their will the good of the community. Order is sourced directly from community consciousness. Even more efficient and reality based than psychological based deterrence but it takes a actual civilization not ants in a sugar jar.
Demand destruction is not a supply glut .
Japan shuts 15pc of LPG storage space on falling demand .
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2852142-japan-shuts-15pc-of-lpg-storage-space-on-falling-demand
Issue is probably falling affordability. Japan’s population is falling; its workforce is falling even more. It needs to import all of its fuel.
That Argus article seems to insinuate that the drop is mostly driven by falling domestic, NOT industrial demand ( aka CHN+ taken biz away ).., although they mentioned ethylene sites closure ( surely int biz related ) and some of excess capacity LPG harbor-importing sites to be switched to ammonia production instead etc.
And that falling domestic part is caused by continued depop wave in the country side chiefly. Which ” in theory” should have been source ( hide out ) for higher natality vs mega cities.. Not the case apparently. So, it’s most likely just sign of over-all malaise of the JAP society post peak ditch to never recover from..
Also, could be related or not, after two last winter seasons they perhaps expect the next one 2026-7 to be less cold, less snowy, hence pre-stocking on LPG so far a bit timid..
(last season):
https://www.snow-forecast.com/whiteroom/japan-weekly-snow-roundup-296/
Fabio must read the comments here, good on him!
https://fabiovighi.substack.com/p/there-is-no-america
This is indeed a very fine post. One excerpt:
. . . capital has become structurally dependent on the continuous expansion of fictitious claims because the production of value itself has entered irreversible decline. . .
Financialisation is the extension of the asset form into every corner of existence. What matters is not whether something fulfils a social need, but whether it can be converted into a stream of income capable of supporting a financial valuation. Wherever predictable revenues can be extracted, an asset can be created. Wherever an asset can be created, debt can be issued against it. Wherever debt exists, new instruments can be constructed, traded, and leveraged. The result is a self-expanding architecture of fictitious capital whose growth depends upon the continuous colonisation of everyday life.
This is precisely the problem we are facing. He then gives several examples: Housing; healthcare; education; automobile loans, . . .
He then points out:
War represents the culmination of this logic. If housing, healthcare, and education are now financial assets, war is their most spectacular expression. While rearmament is sold to the masses as the political response to an unstable geopolitical landscape, it is, above all, an enormous liquidity event for global finance. . .
Violence undergoes the same abstraction that finance imposes upon every other dimension of social life. War is financialised: its anticipated revenues are capitalised in advance, its future contracts discounted into present asset prices, its destruction transformed into collateral supporting fresh rounds of speculation.
Later:
The financialisation of everyday life has ensured that the essentials of survival now appreciate faster than the wages required to purchase them. The technocratic obsession with taming inflation thus misses the point entirely (and on purpose): the problem is not that prices are rising too fast, but that living has become unaffordable for the many while remaining spectacularly profitable for the few.
This is why the system has now entered its terminal historical phase. It no longer governs growth; it governs the impossibility of growth on capitalism’s own terms.
It ends:
Capitalism cannot survive its present terminal crisis. The only hope we have is that the system’s catastrophic irrationality, now laid bare for all to see, might yet generate an escape route – an exit strategy from the very logic that is devouring us. The final barrier to that exit is our own delusional attachment to a collapsing constellation.
Another example of the extent to which the financialization is taking place. In today’s WSJ:
JPMorgan, BlackRock and Goldman to Tokenize Stocks, Treasurys
DTCC launches a trial run with Wall Street firms to convert assets into digital tokens
The DTCC-held tokens are essentially the digital twins of existing shares and can be converted back into traditional shares. They confer the same economic and legal ownership, dividend and governance rights as their underlying shares.
The firms will use the tokenized assets for a broad set of transactions on Wednesday, including collateral transfers, repo transactions and equity trades. The live trades will settle on either HyperLedger Besu, DTCC’s private blockchain, or Canton Network, a Wall Street-backed, privacy-focused blockchain, depending on which one the participating firms choose.
Could something go wrong in the process?
“Could something go wrong in the process? ”
You talkin to me — Niro in Taxi Driver .
BlackRock crosses $15 trillion in assets under management as Larry Fink hails ‘strong’ market fundamentals .
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/blackrock-crosses-15-trillion-in-assets-under-management-as-larry-fink-hails-strong-market-fundamentals-142829372.html
What is the purpose? Only one i can think of is another layer of hypothocation. Everything is fractional reserve banking these days. 1 billion owners for each asset!
Just what the system needs!
Larry produces just about the same content as the other gaggle of american dissidents and multipolar fans but he tries to provide as many facts as possible. It is also a good source because he knows where to look or whom to call. On Graham’s demise:
1) Official timeline indicates that he died at home. a simple calculation shows that was before his plane back landed. So he died in Kiev somehow
2) who called 911 if he lived alone? People who live alone lay on the floor until the stench alerts the neighbors, which will take a few days.
Larry thinks the Russians had good surveillance and knew where he went, because the factory was bombed the same night (the Russians deny that, say they have bombed other places. How do they know?).
Larry speculates that it was a heart attack, either unprovoked or provoked by trying vanilla flavored catchers overnight, as he was rumored to have done in prior visits too (and after a lifetime of mostly chocolate). He was trying to keep up with the Starmeres of course. Macron surely is part of that Whatsapp group where they recount their conquests, but after Michel found out he has been beaten into submission. what will happen now to Graham’s UAE accounts? Hopefully the US can use them to reduce the deficit, but Zelensky might disagree since he considers himself to be the primary donor.
That’s pretty wild, booking ” relaxation ” services in a city under ~bombardment ?, perhaps the over-all body toll in war-conflicts ( they $tap into ) is exactly the formula what these creeps get aroused the most..
There were ample prior examples of this very phenomenon say around WWI or preceding century of techno-sphere leaning conflicts as depicted in arts be it graphic or literature..
A depraved homosexual, war-mongering pervert dying due to an excess of sex, drink and drugs while on a ‘political’ mission does seem perfectly apt, and all too likely, for our times. I do hope it’s true.
This is perhaps an argument for employing lesbians, as I don’t think they tend to burn out in this particular way!
If I may peak into my old ” dust covered album of experience ” – the great fascinating tangent about happy long lasting lesbian pairs is that ~always one of them doesn’t mind some occasional extra activity out of the rank-file so to speak..
Yes, and I do confirm their incline to abusing substances is way lower ( negligible ) vs the male world; obviously caution there for some extreme outliers..
I’ve encountered a few rather wild bi-sexual girls, not disinclined to have a drink or three, but the lesbians have been rather staid (as far as I could tell!).
Pardon my rather limited exposure into the dungeon at hand, but the bi-sexual x lesbian border-line so to speak is not solid wall, changes through time / aging of given person and also varies through subsequent relationships.
Obviously, clinical professionals could disagree with such ( wrongly-amateurish ) perceived relativity expressed here on my part.
Moreover, perhaps statistically, true hard core lesbians are way rarer %occurrence through pop sample vs. male homosexuals. Say for illustrative purposes not 1:1, but 1:3 or even 1:5 occurring ratios..
My exposure is also limited: I run the other way from these people as fast as I can!
Of all the things to not care about, i think individual politicians are at the top of my list. They’re all cardboard cutouts (being replaced by his sister?) that do what their corporate masters tell them.
It is a strange story, I agree. He perhaps was in Kiev, or on the train, when the death happened. He seemed to be gay.
Legacy is important but even it is dwarfed by judgment it is not of men. The two are both different and imseperable.
I am wondering whether Volodymyr Zelensky didn’t arrange Lindsey Graham’s death due to a dispute over percentages, or over policy differences? When thieves fall out and all that.
We can be fairly sure that Graham was in Kiev to discuss financial matters related to US military aid, regardless of whatever else might have been on the agenda. So, as nobody else seems to be thinking along these lines, I am just wondering. Of course, we are unlikely to ever know.
I don’t see a motive for Putin to deliberately target Graham. One less Russophobe in the US Senate calling for your assassination is a matter of little consequence. Means and opportunity; yes. Motive; none I can imagine.
The apparent paradox makes sense if the shortage first destroys purchasing power and economic activity. Oil prices reflect what consumers and businesses can afford, not simply the number of barrels available. If transport, food, and production costs rise together, discretionary demand can collapse quickly enough to pull oil prices down even while physical supply remains constrained. That distinction between geological scarcity and market affordability is crucial. A recession, then, would not signal that the shortage had ended; it could instead be the mechanism forcing consumption back into line with reduced supply.
I think you are right. There is a debt bubble holding up the current economic system. This debt bubble keeps growing; it helps pull the economy forward.
If the debt bubble starts to collapse rather than grow, then it would likely affect the buying power of citizens and businesses. Their falling demand would tend to bring prices of all kinds of goods down, even as geological problems and high insurance costs are pushing the cost of oil upward.
Fujairah is done.
“Sinokor and MSC executives are concerned the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will continue to attack their ships to try to shut down the shuttle market, said people familiar with the matter. At least two captains on their tankers have refused to go through the strait in recent days.
Strait of Hormuz over the last 48 hours: Back to the start.
As the war rages on, Fujairah as the main tanker shuttle port is all but dead after the IRGC fired missiles at two VLCCs, the first escalation of its type yesterday.
Even with US protection, it was not enough, and this is going to take ~6 million b/d of flow out of the market.
To further add to my point that the escalation is increasing, this segment from the WSJ article is very concerning:
“There was also concern among shippers that the scope of Iran’s attacks was widening away from the immediate vicinity of the strait after a vessel was targeted off Oman early Tuesday, according to its owner, London-based Stolt-Nielsen. It had not crossed the strait at all and was loaded with Omani chemicals headed to Malaysia, according to Kpler.”
We are in no-man’s land now. Either Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz or it doesn’t. It’s all-or-nothing.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2077240539683151969/photo/2
US SPR crude inventories in million barrels – sweet vs sour
https://x.com/staunovo/status/2077284668995440875/photo/1
Global diesel market tightens as Russian export ban, Ukraine strikes bite .
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/071426-global-diesel-market-tightens-as-russian-export-ban-ukraine-strikes-bite
According to this article,
Based on Russia’s estimated refining capacity of 6.9 million b/d, the latest figure implies almost 60% of Russian refining capacity is offline following the strikes.
This is a major worry, given how important diesel is to the world economy.
I noted a couple months ago that Russian consumption is about a third of its refining capacity and therefore the Hand would be reducing Russian refinery capacity to less than current consumption in order for the Hand to fight it’s crucial war with the Export Land Model. Who would have thought that we’d almost be there just a couple months later? BNS is slow in some ways, fast in others.
These graphs seem to imply BAU in 2026, especially sour.
Sour Crude is in better supply. Sour crude is more expensive to process, but it contains sulfur, which is needed as fertilizer. So having more sour crude is not all bad.
It cracked me up when people refered to Fujairah as a bypass.
This is a link to a map. https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/images/Fujairah-UAE_Map.jpg
Fujairah is in the UAE, just south of the Straight of Hormuz.
How long is the strait? A mile? Ten miles? 100 miles?
At least the distance of the range of a non satellite controlled UAV? Or the range of a ballistic missile with cluster munitions?
What is the precedent set in “law” with every other geographic anomaly in the world? Does anyone care? If geographic anomaly was modified I’d that relevant? That depends on whose favor the precedent establishes.
There is no law without enforcement.
En force ment
“Respect my atority” Cartman
Military technology as the sword of justice cuts two ways.
Diamond giant De Beers halts work at flagship South African mine as demand plummets .
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjrgr7lr1ejo
Rich people going grey man tactical. Smart. Go long jewelry safe manufacturers.
Pressurized, burnable Carbon… Stupid ‘Murcan housewives (or, rather, their Ghetto pimps) are eventually running out of their stablecoins…
A few years ago in my last communication with my stoopid rich global banking industry founding headhunter cousin who dines with supreme court justices and bankers and the like, that he’s going to be responsible for the safety of his four visibly wealthy daughters until they are married off. Naturally he did not reply. He’s two for four so far. Both of them married up to older and bigger money than what his is. Both Both new husbands dress in dockers and polos on the weekend. They all play pickleball in whites, which is the new tennis for snobs because its ten times easier. Ridiculous wedding outlays. reante most definitely was conspicuously not invited. Can you imagine me showing up? They would have been nervous wrecks. They would have been forever indebted to me for my being on my best behavior.
Good for your cousin and his female offspring. We were and will never be all equal – every healthy, prosperous society is always stratified, with versatile castes and labor division. Sometimes ostentatiously visible, sometimes hidden. Pickleball – is that a bastardized/simplified Jai-Alai?
There is indeed plenty of talent on my mom’s side of the family but as amiable as they are they are all except one as societally shallow and self-serving as can be, so it’s not good for them and it’s not good nor healthy for this sick society. One younger daughter had a brief awakening in college during the plandemic and sought out correspondence with me for awhile, even told me she loved me (in a familial way) because she really hsd no one else to talk to in any depth about what was going on — she’s a bright, heart-centered girl — but that stopped when it got to the point when she had to decide whether or not to get vaxxed for school and she chose school. So it goes. I certainly didn’t give her any unsolicited advice but obviously she knew where I stood. I took her leaving off from the correspondence as a tacit admission of shame, and we haven’t been in touch since. She’s a teacher now — by far the least accomplished of the girls but to be honest the other girls, able as they are, are all just riding the coattails of their dad’s connections — and has been seriously dating a successful young Indian man on an H1B tech industry visa.
Pickleball is just miniature tennis with paddles and a less bouncy ball. The family had their tennis court replaced with a pickleball court when it became the big thing about 5 or so years ago.
” Rich people ” taste gets vulgarized ( lowering down ) as of lately intervening mega trend too.. There are other appetizing vectors for their posh living desires, and apparently jewelry and other options are taking a backseat/lower priority of recently..
Aka another sign of ~collapse trend in slow-motion.
It is difficult to complete with lab grown diamonds, especially when young people, especially, cannot afford the “real thing.”
Rod Stewart says, “I may be dying soon.” And “This is my last tour.”
He mentions how his body has reached its limit related to cardiopulmonary complications including two cancers. and he is no longer strong enough to go touring.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vovFzwPNZw
I’m just surprised he wants to talk about it. At 81 he’s had a good run and is still looking good. He can tease quality out of any song. What a star! I’ll be playing his songs long after he’s gone. Assuming I don’t just follow swiftly on, that is. 😉
Very nice music!
Trump in interview says he will hit electrical power next week followed by energy infrastructure. Skip to 36:30 “save energy infrastructure for last”. Like desert!
https://www.youtube.com/live/6TDau28Inp0?si=nwCyp5F5Ksl70xf-
This would not be good at all. Fortunately, TACO.
They are almost out of ordnance Gail. Right wrong good bad a ending is coming.
IMO.
. He has selected a option and we are marching toward that option. He sure as hell didn’t disclose it in a interview. MOU fake capitulation bought time. Ordnance tank bottom is long long before tank tank bottom. Trump is a burn out guy not fade away.
This sounds a lot like US agitation to me. Is Trump trying to get Bob el-Mandab Straight closed, too?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-gave-saudi-crown-prince-green-light-attack-yemens-sanaa-airport
Trump Gave Saudi Crown Prince Green Light For Attack On Yemen’s Sanaa Airport
Axios reported Monday that President Trump gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) his support for an attack on Yemen ahead of Saudi Arabia’s bombing of the Sanaa International Airport, which shattered a years-long truce between Riyadh and the Houthis.
US officials told Axios reporter Barak Ravid that Riyadh sought support for the attack during conversations with US officials last week, which included a Friday conversation between Trump and MbS. The report said MbS “asked Trump for his backing for a military action against the Houthis and received it.” . .
Yemeni officials are warning that the next move could be the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
“If the current situation aggravates, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock,” said Mohammed al-Farah, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau.
Paki boots on ground desired.
Saudi Paki mutual defense pact signed
China calling in multi billion dollar markers extended to Paki
Paki no got.
Best buddy Saudi will bail for umpteenth time but
Time to consumate defense pact
Ansarallah response to airport exchange invokes defense pact.
Yemen planned forward operating base.
Paki shock troops price for bailouts.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xVce-6Qip8g&pp=ygUhUGFraXN0YW4gY2hpbmEuIFNhdWRpIGRlZmVuc2Ugd2h5
Paki is sweating over a lousy 8b notes to Saudi and 3b to China. Hyperscalers need to come up with 10t in next three years.
More from Kevin Walmsley:
We were wrong about DeepSeek. Now Chinese AI companies export trillions of AI tokens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HV0gr3knrTA
Chinese-built Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems have closed the performance gap with models from Silicon Valley.
Demand for Chinese AI is booming, across global enterprises.
Chinese systems are open-source, and cost about a tenth of comparable platforms from the United States.
China is taking over the “token economy” of AI, and is “exporting tokens” to users across the world.
Today most US tech companies, even the largest ones, use Chinese LLM’s.
Pin, ready to pop AI bubble.
AI companies are not issuing shares – they’ve delayed their IPOs. Share issuance was one of the things that some of the most successful traders identify as the proximal cause for the dot-com bubble collapse. Specifically, the end of the lockup period.
What’s a token economy? Like getting on the subway?
Generated by AI:
“What is a token in AI? A token is the smallest unit of text that a language model processes. It’s typically a short sequence of characters — often a word, part of a word, or a punctuation mark — that the model treats as a single symbol when reading or generating text.”
So it’s so thinking part. Like Matlab programming where symbols are code?
Again AI on itself ( yes ):
– tokens are units of data processed by AI models during training and inference, enabling prediction, generation and reasoning
– you can think of tokens as pieces of words used for natural language processing. For English text, 1 token is approximately 4 characters or 0.75 words
– an AI token is the basic unit of text that a large language model reads and produces. Before a model can process a sentence, the sentence is broken into tokens
..
.
All this geopolitical theatre in the ME and with Russia as nations seek to destroy each other’s energy supplies is starting to look more and more like a global depopulation event. The question is, is it being done on purpose?
Perhaps we are into poly-crisis, where several parallel processes are destroying the old-world and its ” achievements “.. aka multi-spectral collapse in progress, confirmed again from another angle here..
For example, here they link today’s vanning interest in reading into over-all cognitive decay of the whole society, simply new generation(s) won’t be ” as clever ” – not able to sustain the needed drive for our complex civilization project..
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/08/reading-crisis-postliterate-age/687618/
(free digest):
https://www.reddit.com/r/books/comments/1urd185/on_the_issue_of_the_american_literacy_crisis/
PS mind you it’s not only about the US situation, similar mega-trend to some extent also affects the key industrialized hubs of Asia etc., although in a bit slower fashion.. but with their shot natality/fertility rate as of lately – perhaps more pressing anywayz still..
I expect that with a literacy crisis, there will be increasingly wide difference in literacy. Even if schools aren’t functioning well, some parents will take time to teach their own children this important skill. These children will tend to do better than others, just as they do now. Their life expectancies will be longer. They are more likely to hold political office, for example.
That’s also partially the fuel on which NAmerican success ran for some many extra decades, wave after wave of incoming migration, incl. lot of educated personalities able to transfer that potential on the next generation, their off-spring. That stream ( meant in intellectual potency ) has slowed down to a trickle lately.
From another angle, we can look at the problem as several domains interacting, covering each other. Let’s say ” high-school ” students* prior WWI were ~fluent in Latin, were able to write short over-view papers on Antiquity politics / philosophy etc. While at least one of the students of the same school-class died prematurely on the tuberculosis; also not uncommon loosing 2-3x siblings to various mild accidents or diseases. Their mothers often died giving 4-5-6-7th birth.. etc.
Today, ” high-school ” students are perhaps able to file assignment to an AI automaton service on the internet. And ” Antiquity ” = in their minds the ~old TV show from 1990-2000s about trading old warez.. found in the attic.
—
* apples to bananas, yes I know say in ~1910 most young kids likely went to vocational training not to humanities focused high schools
I doubt that destroying energy supplies is being done to purposely reduce world population. At this point, we are getting more and more countries involved in both the Middle East and in Russia/Ukraine conflicts. The many leaders involved are likely not thinking about reducing population. They are more likely thinking about getting rid of a particular adversary. Or, they may figure out that starting a war will divert attention from other problems. It will look like they are doing something about their countries problems. Jobs making weapons may help their economies, for example, if people are being laid off from work in other industries.
add to it the current strikes on grain ships.
UK to hold largest home defence exercise in decades
A national resilience public awareness campaign will launch later this year to inform the public of what Jones called “the small but important steps they can take to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption,”
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-to-hold-largest-home-defence-exercise-in-decades/
This talks about worry about Russia somehow attacking.
Also, personal planning for lack of power, water, phone or food:
A national resilience public awareness campaign will launch later this year to inform the public of what Jones called “the small but important steps they can take to be prepared in case of emergencies and disruption,” whether severe weather or a cyber attack affecting access to power, water, phone signal or food. The Government is also launching a Call for Views on the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, the legislation that has underpinned emergency preparedness across the UK for more than two decades, to gather evidence on where it may need updating, and will publish an Energy Resilience Strategy and a Transport Resilience Strategy later this year.
And they sound like they want to stir up fear of a pandemic.
Words don’t tell only behavior. Whether they hand out garden seeds or digital health ID.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVc_cYWmlHU
If Bab el-Mandeb Closes, Even China Can’t Save Us. (14.00)
7.758 views Jul 14, 2026
China helped oil prices in the first round of this war with Iran; if the Bab el-Mandeb strait closes, even they can’t stop what’s coming.
The war in the Middle East is now a full regional war. I would add, the conflict against Russia is growing in size and participation also. The situation seems to look disturbing on that front, as well. If there were enough resources, it would look like a new world war starting.
If, as the saying goes, that WW4 is to be fought with sticks and stones, then a nuclear WW3 could be afforded even in the current broke-ass state of world because it doesn’t cost much to dial-up nuclear codes. But the BNS only allows for that to happen in an extremely limited and careful fashion if at all.
I agree. Nuclear would be too problematic.
Darn we didn’t stock enough pebbles only jack hammers.
That makes total sense Reante. Also I’m sure in their eyes it could solve some serious challenges. I find it interesting that Thiel moved to Argentina. The current planetary greenhouse equivalent AGGI is 539 which is insane!!! And I’m sure those in power must know about the incredible amounts of unstable methane in the Arctic. We are at the end of an interglacial and supposed to go into another glaciation but this was interrupted by human activity. In the last few 100,000’s of thousands of years, this methane was kept stable as the interglacials were short and followed by longer glaciation periods (in time before thawing didn’t get too bad). The mainstream science community made sure this work by Shakhova and Semelitov was suppressed. They have some really good papers to read if you’re interested. I’m sure in the eyes of the elites, a nuclear winter of 10 years could solve a lot of their problems. But I have no idea how they think… or how they’re organized? Lots of conspiracy theories…. and than there’s the human mind to consider. We are wired for self delusion to emotionally handle the fact we’re going to die. I sometimes wonder if those who suffer with depression and/or anxiety have less of this and they see the world for what it really is (I would be one of them)…. I don’t know, but its amazing how most people just act like everything is normal as all this crazy stuff is happening…
Well, certainly multitude of factors to select that country, but the chief one being apart from obvious ” strategic relocation ” ( aka no/few n-blasts likely ) is the sheer perimeter question.
Basically, you need ” empty country ” to be able to buy on the cheap very large acreage as buffer all around you ( the core inner perimeter ). This is also possible in the US, but now only in mountains or deserts, so he was not interested in that option, apparently for some personal (+objective?) preference reason..
ks
I wasn’t familiar with the AGGI thing. I gather that by 539 you mean that when combining all of the elevated greenhouse gases into a CO2 ppm equivalent you get a 539ppm CO2-equivalent level as opposed to the 420ppm CO2 level or whatever it is now. It makes sense to come up with that CO2-equivalent figure in order to provide some more context to the climate forcing that’s happening.
Thanks but I’m not really interested in long-term climate stuff. It’s not at human scale. I’m only interested in anything that has some bearing on Collapse systems theory because adapting to Collapse is the challenge of our lifetime. Stuff further down the line is for future generations.
I have a difficult time imagining that the Elites would fart around with an attempt at a nuclear nuclear winter geoengineering scheme in service of fighting climate change because there are too many complications. For starters, many northern hemisphere temperate places might get a lot colder because of anthropogenic climate forcing as with the modeling around AMOC breakdown from polar freshwater intrusion. It’s far simpler for each of them to hedge their bets with multiple large private ranches or hunting reserves in different parts of the world. Jr is right that the Southern bugouts so popular with the Elites and nouveau riche like Thiel is surely in large part because of the nuclear power industry issue: few spent fuel pools in the Southern hemisphere and there’s relatively little atmospheric exchange between the two hemispheres.
Its my understanding there are more than 500 nuclear reactors on the planet. Can you elaborate more in terms of what could happen… getting back to the methane in the arctic, just in the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf, there are 50 gigatons of unstable methane that could be released at any time. The Arctic is warming 4 times faster than the rest of the planet. The Elites must know about this. Also with collapse comes the loss of global dimming. The planet would be warmer if it weren’t for all the fossil fuel burning which create the aerosol effect. But this could be solved with inexpensive geoengineering I suppose…. Lots of challenges… but like you, my primary focus is the looming collapse…
Nothing can be done about climate change because the past can’t be changed.
The reactors aren’t so much the problem as they can be shut down and the fuel assemblies moved to the spent fuel pools. There are more spent fuel pools on the planet than reactors. The fuel pools are the problem because of the ungodly amount of fuel in them that requires constant grid-powered cool water circulation, emergency backup diesel generators notwithstanding. When the grids fail they will boil off the water in the pool and then explode, each one creating fallout at a regional scale and perhaps beyond. Multiply that by the number of fuel pools and you have the second absolute worst case scenario of civilizational collapse but the first worst structural case scenario of Collapse because nuclear war armageddon is not a structural aspect of Collapse, it’s just a behavioral one that the Hand has control over. The only way for the Hand to have control over the spent fuel pools structural worst case scenario is to Decommission them by disposing of all the fuel the best that it can before it’s too late. The Hand creating the necessary geopolitical circumstances for such a Decommissioning is the primary function of this current Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) and the larger Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA) also. Spent fuel pools are the elephant in the Collapse room just like peak oil is the elephant in the geopolitical room.
The truth is always simple once arrived at: if an intelligently managed nuclear civilization is facing a rapid structural Collapse, then the first priority is that it must be denuclearized.
AI:
“if a spent fuel pool boiled off and exploded would heavy isotope releases be widespread +18 Yes, heavy isotope releases would be widespread. If a spent fuel pool boiled dry and exploded, massive amounts of volatile, heavy radioactive materials—like Cesium-137 and Strontium-90—would be lofted high into the atmosphere. This highly radioactive plume could spread for hundreds of miles, contaminating thousands of square miles of land.The Mechanics of a Spent Fuel Pool AccidentWhen cooling water is lost in a spent fuel pool, the residual decay heat of the fuel causes the remaining water to boil and evaporate.Fuel Exposure: As the water level drops, the top of the fuel assemblies becomes exposed to the air.Zirconium Fire: The metal cladding (casing) of the fuel rods, made of zirconium, can catch fire in the high-temperature air.Hydrogen Explosion: The superheated zirconium reacts with steam to create hydrogen gas, which can detonate and blow the roof off the building, directly exposing the fuel to the open air.Widespread Release: Once the protective building is gone and the fuel burns, radioactive isotopes are easily dispersed into the wind.Heavy Isotopes and Their ImpactNuclear fuel contains a mix of lighter fission products and heavier actinides. In a severe accident and fire, these heavy isotopes act differently:Volatile Isotopes (¹³⁷Cs and ⁹⁰Sr): Because they are relatively heavy, they drop out of the air (fallout) and deposit onto the ground when the wind carries them. Because of their long half-lives (e.g., about 30 years for Cesium-137), they can render large areas uninhabitable for decades.Ultra-Heavy Isotopes (Plutonium and Uranium): These are extremely heavy, dense metals. During an explosion, these heavy elements tend to fall out of the plume very close to the facility, remaining relatively localized rather than spreading globally.Why This Threat Is SignificantSpent fuel pools at nuclear reactors contain vast amounts of nuclear waste. A major fire at an overstocked pool could release larger amounts of long-lived isotopes, such as Cesium-137, than the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.”
Couldn’t a nuclear winter help with giving more time to manage the spent fuel pools? I know you talk about managed collapse…. but I have a hard time wrapping my head around that… I get the sense of total chaos and everything falling apart so fast that nothing can be done…
Why would a nuclear winter buy time? I just don’t see that climate change is going to make disposing of all the spent fuel in the next few years any harder. That’s my predicted timeline for disposing anyway, because as soon as the system breaks this year and next, the clock will be ticking on grid failures.
I get that it’s a challenge to accept that there is a global think tank that has been managing a global Non-Public Degrowth Agenda for 7 years now. A lot of it has to do with feel, and feel takes time. As Xabier recently reminded the board, if the global lockdowns could play out like they did in 2020 for a (purported) virus with a miniscule (and dubiously arrived at) infection fatality rate then that’s excellent evidence of a global non-public managerial protocol and to me as a structuralist, that global psyop that preempted the 2 Year Rule of Peak Oil by kicking off 1.5 years after the true global Hubbert Peak Oil date of November 2018 in order to destroy vast quantities of oil demand in order to buy six more years until this cataclysmic set-piece we’re in now would have to be rolled-out.
Here’s my 2 Year Rule of Peak Oil
1970 saw US conventional oil production peak and about 2 years later was the oil shock and the petrodollar was born as the US surrounding the ME with its military.
Soviet peak oil was in 1989 and about two years later the USSR collapsed.
1999 was global peak cheap oil when adjusted for inflation and about two years later was the 9/11 false flag that politically justified the 21st century oil wars against countries that were bucking the petrodollar.
2005 was peak global conventional oil and about two years later in the summer of 2007 the financial crisis began.
Global peak total oil liquids on the fitted Hubbert Curve happened at the end of 2018 and 1.5 years later the Hand front-ran the 2 Year Rule by debuting the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda with the plandemic that destroyed so much demand and replaced that lost civilizational momentum with 30pc cumulative OECD inflation and much worse across the rest of the world. And here we are now bungeed-up and peering over the edge looking down at Phase 2 (of 2) of the DA. It’s a long way down.
Do your dates tie up with those in the below?
She doesn’t seem energy savvy, but there might be something that works with your hypothesis(timing, flight to safety).
https://substack.com/@lily357/p-207254501
I would agree with this:
This is why ending forever wars was structurally impossible even under a president who campaigned on it. The wars are not a policy option. They are a load-bearing component of the fiscal architecture.
Wars are a major service the US economy provides. The US needs lots of wars to justify the huge spending on the Department of War. It helps justify our huge debt level. In a recent post, I showed how US GDP tends to increase with more spending on wars. All parts of the economy are interconnected in ways that are not intuitively obvious.
Reante> thanks for that DA time-line recap, indeed all trends seem to intensify to not so distant point of resolution or more precisely boundary snap into other energy stricken reality-poverty realm.
Although, I’d caution about over confidence in ~shortish sub ~5yrs timelines for DA steps. Although they evidently, performed miracles in the past, just recall how they deleted large %%share of diesel powered personal cars in just few years time.
Similarly, there could be other set of plans just waiting around, perhaps in the domain of banning some agricultural practices ( production – consumption ) via suddenly unobtainable certain class of chemicals etc.
Thanks Fitz, yet another good find.
That article is exactly what I would be thinking if I never cottoned to peak oil. The social nationalist Jeremy Scahill was my main man back in the early-mid 2000s. It’s no surprise that he is now a fairly major figure of the yootoob controlled opposition that is set to become the next and last political establishment.
As to the string of dates/events that lily lists early on, i imagine there may be finer connections to be made out of the ones that aren’t included in the 2 year rule, or more likely they’re just aftershocks. Cascading consequences. Crimea 2014 precedes the completion of Steve Ludlum’s Triangle Of Doom by six months, that he predicted to a T and resulted in the oil price crash that eventually led to Trump permanently jawboning up and down the barrel price starting in 2017 in order to synthesize a new triangle until the plandemic came along. And it’s this jawboning — what we here usually refer to as the Feathering mechanism — that lily is recognizing is now clustering around Treasury issuance, and from our perspective, if we agree with it, her potential discovery would represent an additional feathering dynamic introduced alongside the ongoing and intensified oil price feathering that we’re always talking about.
But really I think she’s putting the cart before the horse. The mini, increasingly frequent flights to safety are a trailing indicator of the consequences of the now-terminally-intensified oil price feathering, rendering the (relatively inconsequential IMO) flights to safety as a handy little positive funding feedback loop of geopolitical instability. It’s inconsequential to me because I do not expect dollar hyperinflation like she obviously does; if one expects dollar deflation then dollar funding is not anywhere close to an existential crisis; these mini, high-frequency flights to safety are just canaries in the coalmine of the mother of all flights to come.
Also, notice that she says that these jawbonings and geopolitical manipulations cluster around Treasury issuances. I would want to hear her say that they are clustering on the front end of auctions. Even though T-bill issuance has been going through the roof, like HHH reminded us, yields haven’t budged. Bid-to-cover ratios have been consistently very strong. I’d like to see lily further her technical case for her thesis. I’d like to see her join our club. She’s really sharp but like you said she’s got no anchor. FIAC.
Nice explanation of a subject I hate and so generally attempt to avoid.
Front end seems logical, but I’ve avoided too much to know.
Cheers for the laugh at the end.
I found Lilly(and the article) at Nel’s and if you read the below and the string of comments between the two, she’s definitely up for a conversation(although she lets herself down a bit near the end).
Start gently if you do.
https://substack.com/@nelbonilla/note/c-294474466?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7c6fx
Thanks Jr well it’s only natural that as a slow-collapsnik you would want to caution this fast-collapsnik. Don’t forget that Collapse really started at the end of global organic economic growth during the GFC, right? That probably around when the net-civilizational energy peak hit. And the magnificent Extend and Pretend since then didn’t come for free because nothing comes for free. It came at the cost of both further pressurizing the eventual economic collapse of global capitalism, and reducing the absolute EROEI available to the post- capitalist system even though the average EROEI will increase due to the market shakeout from the financial collapse.
Yes #1, I’m the ever-bargaining ( relapsing mode ) slow lane option advocate..
Yes #2, we are most likely very near the ” end ” – snap to another paradigm, as the ” tricks ” applied as of lately are kind of beyond outlandish.
There’s a good thing. Every single nation there knows all they got is oil. No one wants to see the golden goose go by by. Just like libya. They get along enough to not smoke the whole thing. Unless someone is stupid enough to not give someone a out. And I’m talking about all the players not just Trump. Unfortunately they are all nuts enough to drop the hammer if they don’t get some pie. Some get more some get less but the pie plate feeds them.
Fear is a good thing. Let’s hope they keep their fear close.
Last thing China wanted is great depression. They had plans for more dollar dynasty building. Ke sera.
Totally dude.
Don walks back a half step on Hormuz..
” Trump rescinds 20% fee for Hormuz transits, replaces with US investments by Gulf states. ”
https://www.icis.com/explore/resources/news/2026/07/14/11224014/trump-rescinds-20-fee-for-hormuz-transits-replaces-with-us-investments-by-gulf-states/
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[ Trump Shelves 20% Fee for Hormuz Cargo After Gulf Pressure ]
http://www.bloomberg.com › news › articles › trump-back…
President Donald Trump backed away from his plan to impose a 20% charge on cargo shipments through the Strait of Hormuz after US allies in …
–
..
.
And loses the Fox News political base in the process with that beyond plausibly deniable King Lear TACO. Hand raining down another bitch slap on MAGA.
Trump needs to figure out something that works.
Like not starting the war in the first place? Can anybody explain what the point is?
Ever heard of someone named Eisenhower ?
And that part of his speech on mil.industrial complex?
Basically, even WWII commanding hero, or ~lower ranked bln. status POTUS of today are mere vassals to it in the great scheme of things..
Factories must churn out weapon/systems.
So, you need then the proper market – outflow for these products, hence all the odd places and wars without end, rinse & repeat. If you try object to it seriously, you get Dallassed in short order.
Obviously, plus a bit of needed seasoning on top of it like: ” stopping the commies, RU/CHN/Iran/.. ” just the pre-selected aim of moving target-aim of the day.. to make it somewhat msm – public palatable diet each round..
So back to the historical norm. Show treasury receipts and thee shall pass.
Slovakia is the second most polarized country in Europe, just behind Hungary and just ahead of Spain. This is according to the international V-Dem project. The number of people who cut ties with loved ones due to differences of opinion is on the rise.
https://www.dekk.institute/polarizacia-a-antisystem-2026-slovensko/
Together with the “Ukraine”, “Belarus”, “Moldova” and a small handful of others, your “Slovakia” is not a country at all, but just a temporary misunderstanding on the bumpy Seneca Cliff.
P.S. Kulm loves you…
Maybe the rise of various small nations is simply part of the broader atomization of the world’s population. Don’t forget that many people do not identify with the nationality recorded in official state documents. Others are completely indifferent to their nationality.
Hey, I’m on a roll, this morning!
Here’s a little homage to Lennon’s pean to globalism, followed by some classic Groucho.
Imagine there’s no countries
It isn’t hard to do
The Cherokees got by with a nation
As did the Blackfeet and the Sioux
Imagine there’s no warriors
No leaders and no chiefs
No chiefdoms and no fiefdoms
No owners and no thiefs [I know the plural usually has a ve in it.]
Imagine no republics
No empires and no states
No knives, no forks, no spoons or such
Only dogfood on the plates
Whoo-ah!
Imagine no elections
No campaigns and no polls
No candidates to vote for
Or slogans posted on the wall
Imagine there’s no podium
For any politicians at all
Imagine there’s no sheikdoms
No shakedowns, and no sheiks
Nobody claiming transit fees
And no one on the take
Imagine there’s no motor cars
No gas pedals or brakes
No need for licenses or road tax
Or asphalt roads, for Heaven’s sake
Just a life of videos on YouTube
Chock full of AI fakes!
Youuuu!
You may say that I’m a dreamer
But I’m not the only one
One day there’ll be a new order
And the world with live as one
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4OJGdtRx10
Got a good dogfood stash going. Spoiled brat. Lennon would approve.
This is the chart in the linked report showing the results of their findings by country. The analysis seems to be limited to Europe. Denmark is the least polarized. The graph is difficult to read.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Polarization-chart-in-Slovakian.png
The hegemon’s media control is such that countries that are politically in play for a more independent foreign and energy policy are continuously agitated. Italy was like that in the 1970s. It is good that you embraced Western values, MG.
I think we have all noticed that the styles of clothing that people wear have been going to less and less formal, and ever easier to make. A large share of clothing is now imported long distance from countries with very low labor costs. They often have low energy costs, as well.
Now we see stores with clothing for women with signs “everything $9.99 or less.” We used to read about “Dress for Success.” If people are working from home, they don’t need fancy clothes.
Las decisiones “suicidas” indican que “se acabó el tiempo de paz”.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/las-decisiones-suicidas-indican-que?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=206874041&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
“But with local authorities holding prices down, we found empty pumps. Some people stayed home from wknow when there was a broken pipeline bring oil from Texas to Georgia several years ago, there were all kinds of “Do not price gouge” warnings around Atlanta. So gasoline and diesel prices did not rise. But we also didn’t get the oil that might have been available, if we had been able to pay a higher price than folks elsewhere were paying.
If prices had been allowed to be higher in Atlanta, trucks would have brought oil from other areas to Atlanta. Atlanta gasoline and diesel prices would have been higher. To a lesser degree, gasoline and diesel prices would have been higher elsewhere, as well.
But with local authorities holding prices down, we found empty pumps. Some people stayed home from work. ”
It looks like price controls are popular with politicians as a response to any supply problems so shortages of some sort are pretty much guaranteed.
I agree with you. Politicians work to try to make local citizens happy. They resolve price problems in the direction of “lower to help the consumer,” especially in times of spikes.
Anonymous comment on another blog.
“I was the guy yesterday claiming to be in the oil business.
to continue, what people are not recognizing is that there has been PLENTY of crude around, even with the Strait of Hormuz being closed in. They had oil at Cushing, oil in the SPR, oil in the ships, oil in the refinery feed stock tanks.
But gradually…gradually…we have been using it up…we have been producing the shit out of gasoline, diesel and jet, out of greed because the crack spreads are so huge right now. The EIA reported last week that refinery capacity is 96%…think about that…of all the theoretical refining capacity in the USA, the throughput has been running at 96%…that is flat out, pedal to the metal.
All that is coming to an end people. Cushing storage is gone, the SPR is drained down to nothing…the only caverns left to unload are of the type that they can only be used once. It has to do with the properties of the caverns themselves.
We are producing the hell out of light sweet crude, but we are exporting that shit because our refineries do not use it…they are not built for it.
Except for regional inventories of jet and diesel, we are not in bad shape, BUT, when the crude runs out that the refineries use, the production stops and then the drain plug is pulled and you will see drastic drops in jet and diesel AND gasoline.
THAT will propel crude to the stratosphere. And now that we are slugging it out again with Iran, this is guaranteed.
GUARANTEED
God help us all…this is going to get fucking real very soon”
Rationing will keep prices down.reante’s 3-day $125 barrel WTI call still holding. Hand’s got it’s global rationing finger on the trigger. That’s the repurposed plandemic finger that triggered the lockdowns.
Reante… how does today differ from time of pandemic? If feels much worse.
We are going off an energy cliff now that cannot easily be fixed. In 2020, the Covid shock allows the US government and others to greatly ramp up debt and get people to work at home. There was still energy available afterwards without a huge step down. This time, we are looking at a huge energy step down. Also, the AI bubble looks close to bursting, for the US, at least. A more limited amount, at a lower cost, may be useful in many places.
This time seems less orderly. In 2020, and before that with the sustainable development plans, there was a plan to mitigate the energy step down that was peaceful. It seems like since 2020, there has been a rejection of the plan, which leaves only war. It’s difficult to see how a change in leadership will reverse the course we are on.
It becomes obvious the renewable energy has a very high cost, if you want to maintain BAU with it. If you want to put a solar panel on top of your tricycle, it can perhaps help to support a much less energy intensive lifestyle. But, with only wind, solar, and hydro, you still have a problem making the bicycle and paving the road.
Then add financial issues.. If we can stabilize at a lower standard of living we will be lucky. With demand destruction that’s quite possible but it won’t pay that car payment or mortgage with before valuation. Stimmy will buy time but what is needed is stabilization at lower standard of living and the financial system can’t take that. Aal the same tricks of 2008. Ghost inventory. Hell commercial real estate never left ghost inventory.
I feel such impending doom but still keeping hope alive for stabilization at much lower standard of living… I think many of us feel what was felt by society before the start of WWII, however, I agree with Gail that we don’t have the energy to fight another world war. So it feels like big changes are coming in another form.
Thanks Gail for the clarification.
Hormooz is the second and last structural psychological operation (set-piece) set-piece of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda (DA). The plandemic was the first.
The plandemic’s primary function was to artificially destroy the equivalent of 30pc of 1.5yrs of global oil demand over the course of 5 years (the plandemic production drop plus the plandemic production ‘recovery’ period) in order to buy 6 more years of BAU by maxing out the inflation that the civilizational financial system can handle before it collapses.
Hormooz is for covering for that terminal financial collapse with political Stoopidity, culling the least affordable oil plays, implementing permanent global rationing, blocking the possibility of the Export Land Model from being a factor by trashing the refining capabilities of the biggest exporting nations, and creating the multilateral global politics of anti-Zionism, anti-imperialism, and anti-nuclearism which will result in nationalized (public) USD stablecoins progressively and rapidly replacing the Federal Reserve Note as the global reserve currency.
My granny said things usually come in threes. Deaths; tragedies; the Magi from the East, the Graces and the Fates; breakfast, lunch and dinner; trios; triplets…….
So there might well be a third structural psychological operation still to come.
If the Hand is following my granny’s rule of three.
Yes, the best option something wild and uncanny encroaching on us from the space-universe itself. Be it sudden flux in solar output -> and from that derived various forcing after-effects on Earth’s climate/bio-sphere rhythm and so on..
Good call as I too believe in 3 being the magic number. My view of the DA only really has four set pieces and two psyops. The set pieces being the plandemic, the BNS, the Global Peace Accords from which the social nationalisms emerge, and the Decommissioning which is the Manhattan Project of Collapse on steroids. The psyops — which by definition entail misdirection, trickery — are the plandemic and the BNS. Maybe you’re right though – maybe we could consider the Global Peace Accords (GPA) as a psyop too since it’s not going to be an organic, self-organizing phenomenon but it does lack that element of trickery that I feel is fundamental to psyops. The GPA is certainly the Solution to the plandemic Problem and BNS Reaction-Problem (lol) of the Problem Reaction Solution triune. So maybe that whole triune should be considered as set-pieces of a trinitarian psyop. Yeah I think you’re right.
Or maybe there’s another part of the DA we haven’t discovered yet. Let’s keep our eyes peeled.
Reante… from reading Gail’s work, I thought as we run out of cheap oil, we will become much less complex and possibly start moving from the nation to city state. In other words we will become much more regional and local.
As previously argued regarding how there isn’t a single industrial city or region on the planet that’s anywhere close to self-sufficient, I don’t see that happening. There’s going to be too much momentum to the downside. I see things bottoming out with distributed salvage societies not that far above Dunbar’s Number that are eaking out some surpluses and some political hierarchy, and then many, many more subsistence salvage societies below Dunbar’s Number.
thanks Reante… very interesting but hard to wrap ones mind on what’s coming.
Will BAU be saved by collapsing Russia now?
Given the intensity of the Ukrainian attacks, there is a chance.
However, even if we capture Putin & Co and execute them, and put a puppet to rule what would be Russia (whose borders will significantly change, starting with returning Viipuri and Petsamo to Finland) , I am afraid it is too late to save BAU because by not collapsing Russia in 1990s the Third World uselessly consumed too much resources for nothing
Batavia around 1920
https://youtu.be/Kr4i3wv8C_g?si=l0pYX6XWgn9Jc7A7
Typical colonial capital. Only Europeans are fully clothed.
It would still be ruled by Holland if USA did not support Sukarno in 1949
Batavia in 2026
https://youtu.be/Re1_tK65aIE?si=5H6_0Q9uGQJ_o4Zx
The largest city of the world is now the waste capital of the world
Streets of Batavia
https://youtu.be/I0WaIKtiZfs?si=pVbAMjIy8z2JuYZT
Every particle of material to build these monstrosity has been a waste.
I would give my life gladly if that can turn Batavia, and other slums of the world, back to where they were in 1920.
Fake world everywhere, games for stupid humans.
And now the Indonesians are building a brand new capital in the jungles of Borneo. And Mitsubishi is supplying them with lots of elevators.
Indonesia is building a futuristic, $33+ billion “smart forest city” named Nusantara in the jungles of East Kalimantan, Borneo. Driven by Jakarta’s rapid sinking and overcrowding, this massive project will feature renewable energy, AI-driven infrastructure, and 80% protected green space once completed in 2045.
It’s the oranutans I feel sorry for.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9eiR_nWTCo
33 billion dollars won’t go very far, even in Borneo.
In 100 years, if there is something which could be called world history, they will say that the greatest mistake the collective West ever made was not collapsing Russia when it could.
It had the perfect chance in 1996 when Chechnya rebelled. The West could have ended Russia without fighting a shot by recognizing Chechnya , basically telling every region of Russia to rebel.
Why the West didn’t do that is the pinnacle of stupidity. Granted, some countries had their separatist issues. However, nobody blinked when South Sudan and East Timor bolted out from Sudan and Indonesia.
Russia being broken into a hundred entities, each of them in nonstop fighting one another, would have extended BAU by at least a generation.
Whether Putin is a shill of the West is not relevant now. He might be such, but the very existent of Russia and the inability of the West to exploit its resources at will, like that of Congo, is why world has reached this stage.
If Russia had collapsed before all of its oil would be freely extracted by the West so whatever Iran did would have been appreciated by nobody.
Nah, you just kill six of seven billion people and presto, problem solved. They’ll figure something out 😉
Who has loyalty to anything anymore? The jab having a delayed action on the populace seems the most plausible to myself, personally.
What do you have against the Russians?
BAU needs the resources held by Russia
You are right. Also, the Soviet Union collapsed before. Russia would seem to be an easy target. Apart from military aspects and exports of commodities, the country doesn’t seem to excel much. Its population declined for a long time, but recently has increased a bit, according to some estimates.
Nothing new. If those guys in the boots you dig so much had made it to Russias and Libyas oil fields like they tried it might have turned out different.
All the silly natives have Spencers now. There own special taste of BAU.
Humans have evolved by isolating themselves from nature and other species through the use of energy.
Now, as natural conditions become increasingly harsh due to clmt chng, pollution, and resource depletion, humanity faces a very different environment from the one its ancestors knew. The wilderness is encroaching upon human civilization, swallowing it with brutal force.
The grain harvest in Slovakia could be nearly a fifth lower
Early estimates suggest that the harvest could be the poorest since 2018
“The expected decline in the grain harvest is primarily due to lower yields per hectare, although the total planted area has decreased only slightly. The average grain yield per hectare is expected to reach 4.99 metric tons. Compared to last year, this represents a 15.2 percent decline and a 7.6 percent decrease compared to the five-year average.
For the most important grain—wheat—the harvest is estimated to fall by 15.7 percent to approximately 1.93 million metric tons. The largest year-over-year drop in yield—by more than a fifth to 559,000 metric tons—is expected for barley. The rapeseed harvest will fall by 7.8 percent to 422,000 metric tons.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Those declines in grain harvests are likely to be a problem. We can’t know whether high-priced fertilizer has been an issue. It seems like farmers would cut back on its use.
In the context of CEE region this season, the grain harvest was also most likely affected by the combo of cold spring and follow-up heat waves..
But you are right in that specific part as the agro – sector / industry as a whole has been trying various strategies for lowering outlays / fertilizer deployment as of recently.. Probably by mixing up various cheaper products ( of less potent key ingredients N-P-K + ), and or trying to revert %%more to livestock bedding dispersed then as field fertilizer.
It’s also the question of timing, going back to the first paragraph, in simple terms failed field fertilization timing could be caused / affected by wash-away effects ( long term rains ), freeze-out, or even lengthy drought etc.
I observe two different corn fields in my area. in one, the corn is planted densely together and there are no weeds. The crop looks green and good. Obviously factory farmed with herbicides, fertilizer, etc.
The other field is less dense and full of weeds. The corn does not look too good. This second field is our fate.
VW is considering further job cuts, some interpreting it as +50k above that already 100k announced recently, other sites are telling it’s just the first batch scheduled before 2030.
“The internal combustion engine business is declining but still profitable. The EV business is growing but not yet profitable at scale. Companies like VW are caught in the middle, spending billions on the transition while the existing business erodes. The 50,000 cuts are the human cost of that strategic limbo.” noted elsewhere
https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/volkswagen-ceo-threatens-50000-more-job-cuts-memo-staff-2026-07-13/
( interesting graphs inside )
Europe is going to fall…
Could be. Top level governments, such as the Soviet Union, tend to fail. It is hard to see a long-term future for the EU.
Energy Engineer Explains: The Math Behind “AI Will Take Your Job” Is Laughably Wrong
https://youtu.be/sQGZXrzykpU?si=tmeRwQsYe6rYXLK5
Others have been saying that AI is priced 10 times too high. The two things are sort of equivalent.
Henry Kissinger endorsed AI apparently he wrote a book about it so that’s why the elders were all for it and the government’s love it l think the government’s are blindly following the plans of the elders so AI will succeed in some areas but fail in other’s.
For example human resources and management can be replaced by AI. AI will do the job better because it will not cheat like humans do. Unions will not be needed if their will be no cheating.
Humans are good at underestimating the costs and creating too optimistic scenarios.
Enabled by a fractional reserve debt-based financial system where promises are made by politicians and corporations and paid for by future taxpayers and savers. Unbacked currency/debt/financialization turbocharges non-productive asset transfer. This is one end of the burning candle.
The other end is the physical limitations of thermodynamics, water, etc that this engineer has summarized. Good video MG.
At my job we use an APP for scheduling and most HR stuff now. (request time off, vacation,) Paystubs. etc.
I would go a step further and suggest these apps someday will track your movements and productivity.
And just like you said, one day we won’t need management or supervisors to keep everyone in line.
He was also on the board of Therenos. I always wondered if that was originally supposed to be the test for Covid.
Le monde confronté à une pénurie croissante de diesel
https://2000watts.org/index.php/energies-fossiles/petrole/1483-le-monde-confronte-a-une-penurie-croissante-de-diesel.html
This is an important issue, IMO. These are excerpts form the article.
Posted July 9, 2026
The world is facing a growing diesel shortage
The planets seem to be aligned for a perfect storm. The Strait of Hormuz is closed, the precision of Ukrainian drones is becoming surgical for Russian oil installations, and El Niño promises to slow agricultural production in Asia, America, and Latin America.
At the heart of this system: diesel. This fuel powers global trade with its ships and trucks. For several months, stocks have been at their lowest levels, and the situation is not expected to improve anytime soon.
Russia halts its diesel exports
Yesterday, Vladimir Putin banned diesel exports. The country is the world’s second-largest exporter of this valuable fuel. . .
Russia has stopped publishing most of the data, but it is estimated that 20 to 40 percent of its refining capacity has been taken offline. Moscow has been refining an average of 4.1 million barrels per day, 28 percent less than its average volume over the past five years. . .
Diesel prices are rising
This double blow to diesel supplies has driven up prices in Europe. The premium over crude oil reached a peak of $60.7 per barrel.
Traders have snapped up increasingly scarce stocks. Diesel is trading at nearly $135 a barrel, meaning that motorists aren’t seeing the drop in crude oil prices reflected at the pump. Nor should we mention the oil majors’ propensity to take advantage of this situation to increase their profit margins.
Stocks and options are declining
Russia exported between 700,000 and 800,000 barrels of diesel per day, much of it destined for Brazil and Turkey after Europe boycotted Russian purchases. Moscow had already reduced its maritime diesel exports to 260,000 barrels per day in June.
Countries that continued to source their supplies from Moscow will now compete for the diesel that Europe imported to replace the barrels it previously obtained from Russia and the Middle East.
In the United States, the world’s largest exporter of diesel, distillate stocks, which include diesel and heating oil, hovered last week just above their lowest level in 23 years, at around 100 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration. It is highly likely that the Trump administration will no longer be able to draw on these reserves, and prices will rise.
I thought the US was a net importer of diesel, while exporting light shale-fracking products?
I think they mostly refine their own after importing heavy crude.
We import a lot of heavy crude oil from Canada, and from other countries as well. We have a lot of very light crude oil that we send abroad, to countries that need more light oil. We have a lot of refineries that can do wonders with very heavy crude oil. They can make what would be asphalt into diesel and gasoline, for example. Our refineries produce a range of products for export, including a lot of LNG.
This is an EIA chart showing what we export each month.
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_exp_dc_NUS-Z00_mbblpd_m.htm
I thought you said oil prices are likely to fall?!
They can briefly spike, and then the whole system fail.
Hello from Germany, where the Rhine’s Kaub chokepoint is at its lowest water level for this time of year in decades. Barges can carry less than 20% of normal loads, diesel freight rates from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe jumped 56% – and another heat wave is turning drought into a supply-chain shock.
https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/2076693957388402861/photo/1
Yes, this has been depicted in art, entertainment already.
For example this episode directly deals with the harbor sub-culture around the port of Duisburg, an inland port on the confluence of the Ruhr and Rhine rivers.
pic inside ( for the vibes ) yes a bit cleaner nowadayz:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083173/?ref_=ls_t_1
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0083173/mediaviewer/rm219961857/?ref_=tt_ph_1
https://www.imdb.com/list/ls000254442/
Are we flying blind in the ” fog of war “. ? Zip at C&E .
” Over the past few weeks, I have noticed something striking about the reporting from the Gulf region. It is not so much what is being reported, but rather what is no longer being reported.
Under normal circumstances there is a continuous flow of analyses covering oil production, gas exports, electricity generation, refining, government finances and broader economic developments. Together, these different elements provide a coherent picture of a functioning economic system.
Since the outbreak of the war, that picture has largely disappeared.
News coverage is now dominated by reports of attacks on gas fields, refineries, power stations, pipelines, ports and tankers. These are isolated incidents following one another in rapid succession, while comprehensive economic and energy analyses have become increasingly rare.
The military historian Martin van Creveld argued that war destroys not only people and infrastructure, but also the administrative order on which knowledge itself depends. Beyond a certain point, no one knows with confidence which facilities are still operating, how much production capacity remains, what stocks are available, or which statistics can still be trusted.
Nearly two centuries earlier, Carl von Clausewitz described the same phenomenon as the “fog of war.” As a conflict continues, uncertainty grows and reliable information becomes increasingly difficult to obtain.
The energy sector is particularly vulnerable to this process. Gas fields, power plants, substations, export terminals and pipelines form a single interconnected system. When one link fails, the consequences spread throughout the network. At the same time, conditions change constantly. Facilities are damaged, partially repaired, attacked again, or continue operating at only a fraction of their normal capacity.
The same pattern can be observed in many modern conflict zones like in Russia and Ukraine where energy infrastructure plays a central role. It is not only the infrastructure itself that becomes fragmented, but also our ability to describe it as a coherent economic system. As wars continue, we simply know less and less.”
You only know less and less if you don’t know what’s going on in the first place. The Hand is basically converting the turbocharged inline-12 cigarette boat engine of industrial civilization to a naturally aspirated engine because turbocharged engines are more complex and turbocharged engines on cigarette boats maximize absolute fuel consumption. If you are a person who takes your automobile to a mechanic for an oil change or an alternator replacement or a water pump replacement then you don’t know what’s going on in the first place and when you happen to stumble across an aforementioned conversion video on yootoob your eyes just glaze over and the brain fog rolls in because you’re a stranger in a strange land and reality is at war with your bearings.
If you generally know what’s going on in the first place and you’re curious to learn more, the yootoob conversion video is a playground of further learning in which you can trust in the process because nobody’s gonna attempt that conversion unless they’re sinking a ton of resources into it and know what they are doing.
I hope I’m not the only one who doesn’t understand what you’re trying to tell me (us), dear Reante. Please explain in to me (us?)!
It was just an extended analogy of the DA for the purpose of reminding that if one isn’t paying attention to (or giving adequate credence to) the DA then the Hormooz psyop (plandemic 2.0) is only ever going to make you feel like the fog of war is getting worse all the time. Zip is worried that more destruction of global oil production capacity is happening under the hood than we can know about, whereas the DA holds that the oil plays that the Hand has deemed can survive during the post-Big Nuclear Scare (BNS) Phase 2 of the DA will not be touched because that is what is required in order to achieve Collapse Maximum Power Principle (MPP) which MPP is always the goal of civilization just as it is always the goal of any biological organism with the exception of the self-destructive human mind which aline can short-circuit that biological imperative.
Which is why the Hand is politically exploiting that self-destructiveness with the likes of Donald Trump et al in order to cover for the intelligent chasing of MPP. The Hand HAS to chase Collapse MPP under cover because the public can’t know about peak oil or all medium and long term investment ceases and the nuclear civilization collapses chaotically.
Thank you!
Pleasure.
This is important in the sense of merging / applying it with PO-civ crash like dynamics ahead, as ” the fog ” is perhaps notably fouling our analysis even as of now.. and will be getting noticeably worse in short order as then even harder to navigate what remains actionable-possible at all.
In other words, about high-time to start that uneasy talk with your grandpa about hidden Dali/Cezanne behind the sofa.. So in few weeks time one can finally order that damn TSLA Cyber-truck and other key | end of times toyz | ..
I am afraid that the Fog of War pretty much describes our current situation. We cannot see how bad the situation is because the situation keeps changing and the system is so interconnected. If one part of the system is down, the whole system will stop producing the product in question.
The tight oil business will be facing rolling over maturing debt into a rising-rate environment. They will have to invest more into new drilling.
I’d submit that that’s the conventional wisdom based on either a no-rationing or a stoopid rationing scenario, with a stoopid rationing regime being an across the board rationing.
According to DA theory, what we will get initially is a smart rationing system of consumer rationing but not any business rationing more than is necessary, and further triaging from there as necessary. Such smart global consumer rationing will result in lower rates. Welcome to good old-fashioned textbook degrowth theory! Not that I’ve read any degrowth literature but you’d have to assume consumer rationing was foundational.
We are about to leave the Phase 1 Age of Stoopid behind. Otherwise known as the Age of Gaslighting. And we’re about to enter a Phase 2 as-yet unnamed political age with a distinctly positive connotation.
AI:
“Yes, a global fuel rationing system that only targets consumers could theoretically cause deflation and drive interest rates lower.Rationing acts as a massive artificial choke on consumer spending. This triggers a specific chain reaction across the global financial system.Phase 1: How Consumer Fuel Rationing Creates Deflation[Consumer Fuel Rationing]
│
▼
[Collapsing Demand for Non-Essentials]
│
▼
[Aggressive Retail Price Cutting] ──► [DEFLATION]
Destroys discretionary spending: Consumers forced to cut fuel consumption will severely reduce trips to shopping malls, restaurants, and vacations.Triggers retail inventory gluts: Unsold consumer goods will pile up as retail foot traffic plummets globally.Forces aggressive price cuts: Businesses must slash prices to clear inventory and attract cash-strapped buyers.Creates a wage-price spiral: As corporate revenues fall, companies will freeze hiring and cut wages, further lowering consumer demand.Phase 2: Why Deflation Drives Interest Rates Lower. Forces central bank intervention: Central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank naturally slash their benchmark interest rates to near 0% to fight deflationary stagnation.Lowers bond yields: Investors seeking safety flock to government bonds, which pushes bond prices up and drives market interest rates down.Reduces inflation premiums: Lenders do not need to demand high interest rates to protect their purchasing power when prices are falling.”
I agree that in a serious energy squeeze, it seems likely the individual consumers that will be cut back most.
But at the same time, supply lines break, especially if they require international energy inputs. This will mean that physicians will have fewer drugs and chemotherapies to dispense. Consumers may figure out that physicians cannot really cure everything.
Real estate prices are one of the things that will fall. With falling real estate prices comes the possibility of banks failing. Or they will be sufficiently impaired that they cut back on lending.
Lots of other things happen, as well.
Thrilling and horrifying at the same time.
I guess this process will result into collapse because of the problem of economies of scale and diminishing complexitiy!
Yeah the goal for Phase 2 is clearly to try and optimize the reduction in complexity while maintaining as much efficiency of scale as possible. Skeletonizing the civilization.
Ansarallah Saudi truce over.
Saudi attempts love letter to ansarallah funeral attendees.
Easy west pipeline can not be protected with point AD because of its length.
Black goo on the desert sand.
Emergency repair crews ready?
Measure countermeasure contest begins?
Summer heat. They must work at night. Ultimate roughnecks
Blockade the blockade on. Who runs bartertown.
Less carbon in atmosphere.
Infrastructure must go by by before tank bottom and people demand the spice must flow.
Right smack in the middle of the gulf summer. Flow! I command you! Flow!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n1UHKiRX-8w&pp=ygUFWWVtZW7SBwkJTwsBhyohjO8%3D
Till now Iran has not done much damage to KSA . Will this be the beginning ?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-jets-bomb-sanaa-international-airport-stop-iranian-passenger-plane-landing
Stupid move on Saudis part. But their not stupid. Everyone will figure this out. No pantys in a twist.
Indeed, when it comes to the DA, stoopid is as not-stupid does stoopid. Because stoopid is the performative definition of stupid.
Everyone is having this figured out for them. But it’s gonna hurt like a MFer. 🙂
DA? Dead Ass? District attorney? Damn algorithm? Dumb Ass??? Where is the cheat sheet to all the abbreviations?
Depleted Aquifer.
Deadly Assassin.
Disgruntled Artist.
Devilish Assignment.
Delusional Assumption.
Degrowth Agenda.
You don’t need reante’s meaning(last one). Make your own up and see where that takes us. Before you know it, you will be asking everyone to talk in acronyms, abbreviations and catchy 3 word terms.
For future reference, here are some of reante’s most used
BAU: business as usual
BNS: big nuclear scare
FIAC: Fitz is always correct
Anyway, watch out for the upcoming assassination of Badr Al-Boussaïdi, Minister of Foreign Affairs Oman
https://archive.is/wKCf2
I will give you DA. It is De-growth Agenda. There is no crib sheet available unless you, John, wish to read every comment from at least six months and prepare a nice helpful sticky for new readers.
The abbreviation factor has been admonished many times even by Gail but those who comment frequently are not going to type out phrases they assert repeatedly.
Certain premises are deemed solid enough to decree in commentary yet are formidably inchoate until resignation of hopeful resolution is sufficiently appreciable that reader achieves serenity of purpose here being that acceptance of exuberant opining will yield a slightly more coherent specter of valid argument than anywhere else.
” NPCs w. NMCs ask LFP blokes if mNPPs y. @alt. better effc. (?) ”
—
You get used to it eventually..
Just lingo-argot of deeply energo – soaked realm debate participants..
/sarc off
sciou fantastic stuff, must be the Oregon, but I take exception to “slightly.” 🙂
” NPCs w. NMCs ask LFP blokes if mNPPs y. @alt. better effc. (?) ”
—
So, just used google translate with checked [ add technological vocabulary ] option down-bellow returns :
” Suspected lower intelligent members of the average population out there who own diluvial / toxic elements filled traction batteries placed inside their horrible vehicles ask then the outlandishly handsome over-all very attractive young trendy technology loving guys, who in contrast have the proper modern battery chemistries exquisite cars, as to whether is it true that next generation of micro-sized Nuclear Power Plants placed at higher altitude could thus achieve top efficiency during regular operation – energy generation.. “
Yemen is a terribly poor country. The country is long past peak oil. No wonder it has been in civil war for quite a while.
Yemeni govt strikes Sanaa airport to prevent Iranian plane from landing
The situation is complex because Yemen is controlled by two different groups, the Houthi group and the internationally recognized government. According to the blurb:
Yemen’s internationally recognised government says its armed forces have targeted the runway at Sanaa airport to prevent an Iranian plane from landing.
A delegation from the Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah, was returning from Tehran after the funeral of Iran’s supreme leader.
The Houthis control the capital while the internationally recognised government, based in the southern city of Aden, controls most of the rest of the country.
According to the transcript:
6:55 many experts fear that it’s going to spill and it’s going to involve Israel.
Also the US and others. The transcript is not very accurate, perhaps because of the accents involved.
Yemen exchanged missiles with Saudi in what is quickly becoming a friendly tradition in the region. Yemen communicated possibility of more locations for friendly exchanges including pipelines network along with the salutary greeting “response is coming”.
The original beef stems from -low and behold – a defacto blockade do not contact Saudi decree between Yemen and Iran ostensibly to prevent further weapon technology transfer to Yemen. Certainly smuggling activities as well as financial assistance to ansarallah have been curtailed since beginning of the war. Saudi bombing of Saana airport in the vicinity of returning funeral goers would seem political in nature. Iran set a jet to pick up its ansarallah comrades for the funeral in violation of the do not contact/blockade and Saudi bombed Sanna airport upon the jets return with attendees. The jet decided a smaller airport deep in ansarallah turf a more appropriate destination. Yemen response to date has been tit for tat a Saudi airport.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/yemen-reveals-saudi-target-coordinates—response-is-coming
I
It actually was a spicy start for Yemen just prior to the Iran war but not for Ansarallah. The UAE backed militia went on a tear until The Saudi backed militia and Saudi air force intervened. Given the successes of the Ukraine advisors assisting Jolani in Syria and the new Ukrainian technical assistance to the monarchs one might wonder how long it will be before ansarallah faces a Ukrainian style blitzkrieg. Then Saudi and UAE. Would interact for the spoils but it appears UAE backed STC has faded. One might question the longevity of any sort of strategic infrastructure in such a dynamic environment. BAU with the strait open but with it closed the bypass pipeline to the red sea becomes something else entirely something every player in the region understands.all too well.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_Southern_Yemen_campaign
Near the beginning of this video, Yanis Varoufakis (who is not the main speaker on this video) makes the point that financial hegemony is different from military hegemony. The US has been losing wars, since the Vietnam War. The important thing is financial hegemony, and how long that can last. I think he is right.
(I didn’t get to the end of the video. John Mearsheimer may or may not have worthwhile things to say.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=207xSAinzIc
I also found an earlier video with Yanis Varoufakis, saying that the Iran War will lead to a global financial crisis.
I’m a little hesitant to listen to this guy as he seems more idealist to realist.(maybe I could be wrong). Its my understanding from the perspective of realists that you need to dominate militarily first to have financial hegemony. (or have the weapons including nuclear to show your potential). We took over the role as the global maritime power (controlling choke points) from the British. Our allies have relied on us to protect them but the world is now more and more viewing us as a Paper Tiger. (maybe starting with the Ukraine War???). Never has a country controlled the entire world as the US but that seems as its quickly coming to an end. And we will be retreating to become a hegemon in the Americas.
I am intrigued because I can imagine that what looks like a ramp up to a third world war will somehow morph into a financial crash.
I would need to look at exactly what he is saying. Our economy is held up by a huge debt bubble. Anything that collapses the debt bubble is big problem.
Perhaps look at it from Varoufakis’ angle as he was near/inside that previous fin-econ crisis background deals, trying to pull Greece from even worse than pre-ordained outcome. So, in that meaning if he senses vibes of yet another crash nearby, it could be indeed not that distant event – irrespective of his other ( polit-econ ) ideas.
He’s been blabbing about financial collapse for years just like we have. Not that he’s wrong this time.
One important thing Yanis Varoufakis says is that without oil, fertilizer, and other things cut off from the Middle East output from a lot of countries dependent on Middle East output, such as Bangladesh and Japan, will necessarily fall. It takes time for this to work its way through the system. Tjis will tend to cause recession in many countries of the world. In the US, the AI bubble has to a significant extent been covering up this issue, but it can’t be expected to continue.
He notes that there is a lot of debt being held by companies whose output is cut back by lack of inputs. This debt may default, especially if oil prices rise. This will adversely affect the financial system.
I think Yanis Varoufakis is missing a lot of the mechanics of what is happening, but he does have some parts right. You just have to tune out his biases.
It was a very good video the takeaway the world is headed to fascism .
Gail… after discovering your work, its hard to rely on others for the big picture. You bring it all together like no one else!
Thanks!
We are in an energy transition. On that we can all agree.
It could be from high tech to high tech. Using Thorium reactor, fusion reactors, space based PV, lot and lots of ground based PV. It could be high tech to low tech using wood lots and water wheels on streams and sailing ships. At a more modest living standard. It could be eight billion to half a billion due to fertility of 1.0 for the next three hundred years. Or due to bio-weapons or nuke war.
My only regret is I will not live to see which away it goes.
Great approach indeed.
I’m also of the persuasion, eventually we will get some odd-ball combo of forcing upon us from different angles at the same time: lets say sudden higher depop + heatwaves and or only one global block able upgrading to next gen thorium reactors status econ etc..
With your background and income level you could be learning helping people and participating now. It’s been your choice for a long time and it’s your choice right _##$$$ now.
Probably our leaders care more about the future of humanity than we think. For example, climate change could potentially wipe out civilization. A good strategy is to destroy the enemy’s fossil fuel consumption infrastructure and hope to come out better. Probably the leaders on each side are aware of their own strategy and that of the enemies. We will all lose, some more than others.
Lindsay Graham’s last advice to DJT . 🤣
” So you wanna put boots on the ground in Iran? Give them what-for? Finish the Job!
Let’s start with baby steps. Kharg Island is 600 KM past the Strait of Hormuz, and it’s the size of Iwo Jima. Qeshm Island is bigger than Okinawa. Both are in artillery, drone and missile range of Iran.
During WW2, we pounded Iwo Jima with battleships for weeks before landing 70,000 Marines. 19,000 were WIA and 7,000 were KIA. It took a month to wipe out Japanese resistance.
In 1945 we landed 180,000 Marines and Soldiers on Okinawa. It took three months to subdue Japanese resistance. The U.S. suffered more than 30,000 WIA and 12,000 KIA.
But what the hell, I’m sure a force of around 10,000 U.S. troops can capture Kharg or Qeshm, while being shuttled in by helicopters and tilt-rotors. From staging areas that are in easy drone and missile range from Iran.
Or maybe we’ll just bum-rush our amphibious ships loaded with Marines straight into the Strait of Hormuz. For Kharg Island, tack on a 600 kilometer run parallel to the cliffs of the Iranian coast. It should be a piece of cake.
The FOX News military geniuses are all sure this is a great idea, and it seems like Trump is listening to them. God help our deployed Soldiers, Sailors and Marines .
https://x.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/2075197972137005155/photo/1
Crazy .
” Trump: US to become ‘the guardian’ of the Strait of Hormuz ”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5965399-donald-trump-guardian-strait-hormuz/
also
Strait of Hormuz traffic lowest in 5 weeks .
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5965489-strait-hormuz-ship-traffic-low/
I am not joking but this man is nuts . US will charge a 20% surcharge on all cargo passing thru SoH .
https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/image%20%2880%29_5.png?itok=0NUSLjJ5
Who runs Bartertown. Competing transit channels. Coupon discount codes? JULYOIL15 neon signs approaching strait. Choose channel de Trump and get free Trump meme coin. Cmon man. This is his customary innovation.
Poor Rubio. Tough luck buddy.
We no likey Rubio anymore than we likey Hillary Clinton. Tulsi neither, she was furious when he was made secretary of State. Now she knows why. Good riddance.
The Hand comes out of his prolonged water fast with a cup of goat broth in early December of 2018, in celebration of the Hubbert Peak, and says to himself: the Democrats will be run off the cliff with a plandemic and the Republicans will be run off a cliff with a ground invasion of Iran.
That’s a wise old Hand right there.
Third heat-wave of this year now left French EDF fleet of 57 reactors with 3x completely out of service and ~8x on curbed output ..
Does this have to do with the rivers used for cooling getting too warm, or what?
It’s surely a combo of aging NPP fleet in hot weather ( ~urgent upkeep schedule then blocked-delayed* by numerous heat waves per single year ), and then also by rising discharged coolant temp into rivers; picture it as canals re-directing the water to these sites -> cool off -> back to river..
Here they spin it only as this outflow of such warmer coolant water would endanger ecosystems downstream from them..
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/france-shuts-down-nuclear-reactors-112950063.html
While, proclaiming, all designed precaution about max temp technically speaking has not been breached yet and claiming historically insignificant lull in power production anyway, so don’t you worry hah.
Obviously, your mileage may vary in terms what / whom / to what extent one can believe them given such circumstances.
—
* that’s the part they try to ~obfuscate-hide the most..
France needs to move their reactors to Greenland. Lots of cold water for cooling.
Now I know why Trump needs Greenland ….lots of H2O for Lake Meade and Foul, along with all the other irrigation venues that are reaching record lows….match the SPR….
At least it’s consistent…how low can we go? Just wait and 🙈 see…
Europe is the fastest warming continent on the planet…
https://x.com/VandanaHari_SG/status/2076462514456654216
Christine Guerrero reposted
Vandana Hari
@VandanaHari_SG
·
2h
Some ship-tracking data report only a handful of crossings over the weekend.
But between 6 and 11 – transits of all kinds of vessels, not just tankers – it doesn’t really matter. Hormuz is once again EFFECTIVELY SHUT.
The new narrative war – US saying Hormuz is open and Iran saying it is shut – is as ridiculous as a kids’ schoolyard fight. Only, much more damaging.
I think both sides in the US-Israel-Iran conflict are so depleted, both militarily via hardware/logistics and economically, that neither can mount any significant game-changing decisive blow against the other. Thus, both sides are resorting to lobbing drones at each other and that’s about the extent of the kinetic war (short of nuclear). Only the targeting of the desalination and nuclear plants is left in the Gulf.
It would be interesting to see a forensic accounting analysis of the military-industrial complex to see if they are still hoovering up tons of money for orders they cannot possibly fulfill because they cannot source the materials, like rare earth metals, needed to produce these weapons.
Same thing with Ukraine, except that Russia still has the upper hand logistically, even though it is feeling the economic impact of these stepped-up drone attacks by Ukraine (US) which probably are at the limits of the US and NATO’s ability to supply them.
To make a long story short, continued back and forth drone attacks are like two drunk guys in a bar fight who are unable to effectively throw a knockout punch, much less stand up.
Rather, the real determinant will be the economically by the gnawing away the energy and materials needed to continue the wars in such grand style.
That is a possible and very hopeful outcome. The warring parties cut off their own supplies via war before either can finish the job. A alternative outcome is the precision weapons suitable for hard targets get depleted leaving the much much larger quantities of older dumb munitions reserve. Ineffective on military targets but more than adequate to destroy soft infrastructure targets. Infrastructure gets targeted because that’s what the ordnance left can do.
The pundits are reporting that USA has no new Intel. The best targets were hit early in the war. What’s left is targets under too much rock to destroy and isolated bunkers barely worth the effort. The energy infrastructure beckons seductively. No rock. No Intel needed.
Of course there is the other issue. There is no shortage in the least of a vast array of nuclear weapons with a vast array of yields.
“Capitalism has a notorious tendency to periodically come spinning apart. Each time it does, those who profit from it have to convince everyone there’s really no choice but to dutifully paste it all back together again, in something like the original form.”
– David Graeber
Meanwhile, in China, July so far has been filled with even more disasters than usual, as Lei reports, including earthquakes, giant hail, a tornado, floods, a collapsed dam, and a plague of snakes :
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgBfNF-PMnM
Well, we’ve entered the month of July on the day marked with the 105th anniversary of CCP’s founding, followed by the United States 250th birthday. In the US, the biggest event this month is probably the FIFA World Cup.
In China, unfortunately, the biggest stories of July so far have been a relentless wave of disasters, from giant hail storms across northern China to record-breaking heat sweeping the country, from the devastating dam collapse and floodwaters in Guangshi to the powerful tornado that tore through cities in Hube and now a series of earthquakes shaking Suchan.
And today, super typhoon Bavi and its relentless rainstorms continued to Jang, Fuian, and Beijing and a big part of China. So, since the beginning of July, China has experienced one major natural disaster after another. It seems that hardly a single day has passed without another tragedy unfolding somewhere across the country. And many Chinese have begun reflecting on an ancient idea deeply rooted in traditional Chinese philosophy.
It’s what the Chinese called heaven reveals signals to foretell fortune and misfortune. Extraordinary events in nature were interpreted as heaven’s warning that moral order had broken down and that those in power had lost their virtue.
So when the earth shakes, when fire, wind, flood, and even snakes arrive one after another, many people see more than a series of isolated natural disasters. To them, they are a warning. a warning about the fate of the CCP’s red regime.
So exactly what has happened in China over the last two weeks? It’s actually less than two weeks. Today is the 11th. So it’s only been yeah 11 days. Well, I can tell you that the list is astonishing.
So let me begin. in Sutran province. Three days ago on July 8th, residents in a small county called uh the Gao County woke ups to something deeply unsettling. The ground wouldn’t stop shaking, not once, not twice, but again and again. And then in the following two days, the area was struck by 13 separate earthquakes.
The strongest measured around magnitude 5.0. But because the quakes were extremely shallow, only about six kilometers beneath the surface, the shaking felt much more violent than the numbers uh alone would suggest. People were jolted awake in the middle of the night. And residents in high-rise buildings described their apartments swaying like a giant swing.
But what truly captured people’s attention wasn’t just the earthquake itself. It was what happened before and after it. Videos circulating on Chinese social media showed birds suddenly taking flight in large numbers, circulating frank frantically through the sky as if fleeing an invisible danger. Some residents also reported seeing unusually shaped clouds before the earthquakes.
¥Now, these accounts reminded people uh of another earthquake in the same region just days earlier. That was June the 29th. And before that quake, security cameras captured fish repeatedly leaping out of water, while cats and dogs appeared unusually agitated, running about in panic. Scientists have debated that animals can detect subtle seismic activities before earthquakes and it’s a strong belief held by many Chinese.
Then came uh perhaps the strangest image of all. Shortly after the earthquake, a
small stream in Chini village which had been known for its crystal clearar water suddenly turned a deep reddish color…..
An Iranian once told me – an apparently thoroughly Westernised person – that water shortages in Iran are a sign of Divine displeasure at the regime of the mullahs. Quite astonishing.
But this isn’t simply an ancient Eastern way of thinking: that the ruler was guarantor of fine crops, peace and plenty was a common belief throughout the world.
The ancient Germans and Norse, for instance, also held their rulers accountable for what to us are natural events, even to the point of expecting them to submit to being sacrificed if things got really bad in terms of floods, disease and drought.
One of the reasons, perhaps, why sacrifice-free Christianity appealed to those early kings!
I’m not endorsing this view, but I wouldn’t put it completely beyond the bounds of plausibility. Trump as a literal madman who will push the nuclear button?
Sickest Patient I’ve Ever Encountered’: Johns Hopkins Expert Warns Donald Trump Has ‘Accelerating’ Dementia
As one Johns Hopkins clinician publicly questions Donald Trump’s grip on his own mind, the real battle is over who gets to decide when a leader is no longer fit to lead.
Johns Hopkins psychiatrist and clinical psychologist Dr John Gartner has warned that US president Donald Trump is the ‘sickest patient’ he has seen in four decades of practice, telling a podcast audience that Trump shows signs of ‘accelerating’ frontotemporal dementia based on years of public observation.
Gartner, a former assistant professor of psychiatry at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, set out his assessment on The Daily Beast podcast. He stressed that he has never examined Trump in person and is instead drawing on a long record of broadcasts, speeches, social media posts and public appearances, comparing Trump today with the man Americans first watched enter politics in 2015. In his view, what he calls a pattern of cognitive and behavioural decline has sharpened markedly in the past few years.
Gartner’s headline claim is blunt. ‘In 40 years of clinical practice and almost 30 years of teaching psychiatric residents, I’ve never encountered a patient as sick as Donald Trump,’ he said. On the same programme he argued that Trump has displayed symptoms consistent with frontotemporal dementia, or FTD, since around 2019, insisting the ‘rate of deterioration is accelerating’ and even suggesting Trump is ‘not the same man he was four weeks ago.’ That kind of precision has caught the attention of both supporters and critics, because it goes far beyond the usual armchair psychology that trails every modern president.
If Trump nukes Iran will wobbly head Trump’s be available with him holding mushroom clouds? Why on earth does any man have choice for elective first stroke with nuclear weapons? Response ok but elective first use?
Sorry, this can’t be taken seriously, when the predecessor in WH was ~cognitive only few minutes per week! And by the progression seen ( via msm ) very recently it worsened to even level of few incoherent minutes per month as in the peak lucid performance available at that..
I agree with you. Joe Biden was in ridiculous shape. We may not agree with Trump’s decisions, but he wants to give the impression that the US is still the world’s hegemon, when it is rapidly losing this role.
Based on ~today’s perception Don will go memorized into the history books as flamboyant quasi usurper ( hopefully not going full bore WWIV* catastrophic during remaining time in office ) who simultaneously fought two fronts: of his family further enrichment while close to govs power; and attempted slow-down of US empire (relative)downfall trajectory.
Actually, that’s what almost every other recent POTUS before done as well, but on less extravagant in your face scale&style..
—
*assuming cold war era was ver3.o
Certainly Trump’s condition is different than Bidens. In a way this is worse. The last year Biden was led about like a animal in a petting zoo. Not a single word had authority. A sigh of relief when camera went off. Auto pen city. Most certainly did not have nuclear codes. If those were needed would have been hand fed.
Trump’s condition is more of a narcissistic and cultural condition than classic dementia. It’s the opposite of Biden. He allows no decisions be made without his agreement. His cabinet selected for total compliance with his will. The one exception forced on Trump Rubio who probably pours a couple stiff ones when he gets home and wonders of God is punishing him for something.
As usual the decision is falsely framed as mutually exclusive. All delegated or all autonomous. As usual what’s appropriate is a wise balance. Only our models are all diminished delegated or all diminished autonomous. Choose your dysfunction.
Both men exhibit the exact same disjointed, incoherent verbiage that is a classic symptom of a brain in serious decline. Is Trump far more functional than Biden was? Of course, and given the situation, that makes it even worse.
Ok I’m done talking in mixed company. Neither man’s condition matters one iota. If either is incapable of performing his assignment well enough then he will be replaced. In the meantime the twin old rich corrupt white man dementia memes are in perfect service of a Problem Reaction Solution Tulsi presidency.
“Trump as a literal madman who will push the nuclear button?”
No, he can’t just sneak out of bed in the dead of night and push it all on his own. It would be a joint effort. Surely his underlings are not all extremists.
Someone should tell the good doctor that Trump does and says what he is told to do, and is acting a part.
Highly unprofessional, also, to ‘diagnose’ without examination – rather like ‘trusted medical professionals’ endorsing certain ‘vaccines’ , in ignorance of their true contents and for a pandemic that didn’t exist……
Strike them all off!
The sea of Azov turkey shoot continues. Russia is attempting to circle wagons under air defense. 90 tankers out of the 250 or so have been hit with heavy UAV with significant payload.
While the destruction of these tankers has dire implications for supply to Crimea and Donboss it is also the final end of the time when Russia supplied western Europe with affordable oil assuming Russia does not fall. These small tankers were the means by which oil transited to the German refinery’s from the sea of azov shallow waters. They were purchased Russia has no tanker manufacturing capability. Once this gets mopped up eyes will turn to Russias export out of the gulf of Finland.
https://youtu.be/0E7Q-RsoM5A?si=Hn7BmO-zS8WaXABt
Western Europe is financing the destruction of its affordable energy. Is it surprising USA is doing the same?
Ritter reports Russia will soon be jamming starlink and the drones. He is so pro Russian I don’t believe anything he says. It is true however military secrets are the most fleeting of all.
Spock was a dog.
https://youtu.be/AusAGjwlql8?si=UKUILIKyxbw7t8yZ
This is all very sad, IMO. So much infrastructure and usable tankers is being damaged. There is no way to go back.
Lamentable. The planners who arrange the destruction lead comfortable, untroubled lives, far away from the harm they cause and with no risk to themselves.
My guess and it is no more is someone with authority believes in carbon based climate change and is taking what they consider appropriate action. I am not informed enough to have a opinion on carbon based climate change. The subject is so contentious I think it would take a considerable amount of time to wade through the evidence.
Remember reading about Addie Hitter during the dark days of Stalingrad whining about “taking so long” to take the city in his well heated comfortable arrangements with his circle of well fed enablers.
I think one brave military man actually was “fed up” and adopted the starvation rations given to those soldiers trapped. Needless to say, he lost so much weight he was ordered to no longer continue with it…
Hitter once was quoted “Do you think Napoleon’s gendarmeries enjoyed dying for their nation?”
Suppose one can be too kind hearted to be a warload
Napoleon:
‘Men are like lemons: you squeeze them, and when they are used up, throw them away’.
I thought that was Robert Plant. 😉
I’d say that’s pretty impressive for a lil’ guy with one good arm. Andre the Giant could squeeze two lemons at a time, 8 seconds:
https://youtu.be/y5wILtuHkQc
There are various reports on this topic, supposedly the UKRo score is 90x ! tankers eliminated per week, and 14x out of it just on previous night..
Sources .ua / the guardian and similar bunch of ~respected sources hah..
note: legit or not, these are all links/data from upto previous night i.e. 18-24hrs ago
This seems quite unlikely. These are all ships traveling out through the Volga Don canal. They are small. I suspect these are mostly or all cargo ships, not tankers.
Yes, that was my angle as msm apart from elevated numbers tries hard to obfuscate the narrative in blending size of these “tankers” .. river-coastal vs ocean cat.
The thermal imaging of the drones is very detailed. Did you watch the what’s going on with shipping video,? He has no dog in the fight. He states he does not condone commercial shipping attacks.The ships identification numbers are visible in the drones thermal imaging. He takes those and sources existing on line photography for many of the craft. They are flagged all over the place. He goes through several. Too boring to do all. Now add crew members showing damage afterwords via social media. These are large winged UAV. The payloads are significant. The distance is much smaller than the targets far away inside Russia payloads can be large. The bridges are targeted and completely destroyef Incredibly difficult retrofit.
Russia is knocking down maybe two out of three or more as they cross the donbass. Russia defense ministry reported over 300 downed so far in azov area. This is a large deployment of large fixed wing UAVs. A lot of the AD is protecting targets deeper in the interior. Now they are establishing an AD protected place to anchor close to kerch for the surviving ships.Russian emergency action will probably save some of the fleet.The source I linked providing the 90 figure is pro Russian. Pro Ukrainian sources are saying over 100. The ships have had no where to hide. The entire sea of azov is well within range. Some 250 targets. Their location is identified with satellite or predator drone. Hits have averaged about 20 a day. Welcome to drone warfare.
There was a squad of Marines on each ship armed with normal issue small arms. They are visible on some of the thermal imaging. All the attacks are occuring at night with thermal equiped UAV. The Marines could not see the UAVs let alone protect them. The rudimentary protection that has some success in running the drone gauntlet with supply trucks was completely inffective here. The truck convoys get a pintle mounted belt fed with a trained aerial gunner. One or two “technical” per convoy. They can choose to run the gauntlet in the day. They can not choose to not have the tankers attacked at nights. Thirty percent of launched UAVs penetrating shore AD created this result.
Yes, thanks for the in depth discussion. My point was simply about the msm obfuscation, and or selective approach to emboldening on way narratives.
If I read you correctly, better thermal / nightly ( synced to gun / rocketry ) imaging for the tanker gunner crew would help solve large part of the incoming damage / tactics used against them so far, right? So, if not capable quickly re-purposing their own gear at the moment, you can bet the RU-side will get some contraptions from CHN and mount it with their anti-drone systems asap. Yes, the delays in such reaction seem too long to be real sometimes.
If that’s the case, there will be ~soon some type of reaction, an-antidote provided, this war has already brought so many new developments in the art of war that this dance attackerrepellent will continue.
Yes absaloutly. Deployment of suitable crew served small arms with thermal sights would probably reduced asset losses considerably. Too much faith in AD over the donbass. But it’s not like they didn’t knock any down. They knocked a shit ton down. There was just a lot. These things do move at 200 mph. Not much time. Still I think trained crew could have knocked a bunch down. Tracer should show up well on thermal
Chinese thermal imaging components are crazy cheap now. Not even a tiny consideration in the total cost of a large fixed wing UAV. Ukraine used that. These were designed as night birds from the gitgo. They had thermal. The ships didn’t. Turkey shoot.
From a war perspective a extremely successful op demonstrating Ukraines increasing competence and innovation in the particular niche they are creating for themselves. Shahed improvement..
Plenty of weapons. The question is who has the targets.
Innovation in affordable destructive technologies will represent threats to the continuation of infrastructure of industrial civilization as the technologies proliferate. What happens when the terrorist groups in south Pakistan cobble together a Chinese ski doo into a sea drone assuming the strait ever opens? What happens when drug cartels increase their already extensive drone capabilities?
Todays glee at destruction of infrastructure turns to despair when it realized hey we kind of needed that. Gail is absaloutly correct. There is no going back. Who is going to cap x for soft infrastructure when any two bit terrorist can cobble something together? The gulf monarchs enjoying Monaco?
This was a good little demo. We are headed to lots of affordable AD. Lots of affordable UAV. But some will always get through. Right up until starlink jamming becomes a reality. As mentioned it’s impressive at first. Ukrainians picked a nice spot. After starlink gets jammed it goes back to 40 kilometer range. I think that’s what the bear is counting on. I the bear will be eager for a fair fight then. I could be wrong. Often am. Difficult time. They must find solutions, capitulate, or end the world
Awesome work dog but there’s no way that those marines wouldn’t have combination night vision thermal scopes on their guns unless the Hand said no. Those scopes would obviously be standard issue for marksmen on that assignment. Those scopes are a dime a dozen from China. They wouldn’t need that many for that number of ships. The consumer market alone has oodles of them available at any given time.
Are you confirming that most of these ships are indeed tankers?
From the DA perspective it makes perfect sense that undersized tankers are going to be destroyed in service of the BNS because they are extraneous to Phase 2 anyway because they are far more inefficient than full-size tankers. Two birds with one stone.
Hello? This is the azov shadow fleet. They are necessarily smaller to navigate its waters. These existed specifically to feed oil to western Europe via German refinery’s. That’s why the notorious ship to ship transfers to bigger tankers off Greece had to occur to get the oil to India while that was going on. Their size is very uniform about 100 meters in length. 90 football field length tankers destroyed is of no consequence? This is the only way the oil leaves there is no other As to date 30 percent or more of fleet destroyed. The what’s going on with shipping video identified vessel class and individual vessel extensively if you are interested. 28 out of 30 forensically analyzed were tankers. This is what happens when destructive technologies are applied to soft infrastructure.
The two greeks (Duran) have a video up about Ukraine targeting Russia food exports. I did not watch it but it seems likely. To deny food to Egypt, it seems to me, is just as good for the US.
What next! At least in the Middle East, they seem to be staying away from desalination plants.
No need to reply to my request for confirmation that they’re tankers, thanks dog. And thanks for explaining their function vis a vis Western Europe. Unless there’s another plan for some reason, I’d have to think that during Phase 2, after the Global Peace Accords, some Russian oil will again reach Germany via the Druzhba pipeline and gas too via the Nordstream pipeline that remains intact. That just seems like the efficient choice for the Hand.
My mistake. Average length 244 meters. 100 seemed a bit shy.
Now it is not good for the Christian’s health to hassle the Aryan brown,
For the Christian riles, and the Aryan smiles and he weareth the Christian down;
And the end of the fight is a tombstone white with the name of the late deceased,
And the epitaph drear: “A Fool lies here who tried to hassle the East.”
— Rudyard Kipling — The Naulahka
From General Douglas MacArthur on US war in Asia https://davecoop.net/macarthur.htm ) shows some of how MacArthur changed by 1961.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/12/world/live-news/iran-war-trump
US and Iran launch new round of strikes after days of escalation
The US conducted new strikes hours after a major air assault on Iran. Tehran targeted Gulf nations over the weekend.
A quote from dave coop.net
President Kennedy first began to have doubts about our military effort in Vietnam in 1961 when both General Douglas MacArthur and General Charles de Gaulle warned him that the Asian mainland was no place to be fighting a non-nuclear land war. There was no end to Asian manpower, MacArthur told the President, and even if we poured a million American infantry soldiers into that continent, we would still find ourselves outnumbered on every side. De Gaulle said the same thing in Paris that spring, pointing out that the French had shown us the hopelessness of trying to fight in that country.”
At one time, the British SAS – according to a friend who was a sergeant in the unit – had a quote from Mao on the wall of their mess room:
‘As long as there is one man with a rifle and ammunition left, we will win!’
Arthropods are the scum of the Earth.
This group includes bees. We need them for pollination.
Humans eat lobsters, crabs and shrimp.
I expect that the others are part of the food chain for animals we do eat, or they have some other function. Barnacles perhaps help in the recycling of materials used in making boats (a guess on my part).
Try living next to them. You’d be singing a different tune after that.
Along with rednecks
The Duke of Wellington called working class males The Scum of Earth
So it’s scum to this.
(ftom 8 minutes in)