There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
Anas Alhaji .
https://open.substack.com/pub/anasalhajjieoa/p/the-four-seas-cataclysm-when-the?r=26quge&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email
I am seeing reports that Poland has been hit; I’m hoping cooler heads prevail
Nothing on Poland on my radar till now . False alarm .
Just in . I still call it a false alarm . This is like somebody threw a stone over from Russia into Poland . A storm in a teacup .
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/heavy-russian-attacks-reach-far-west-ukraine-missile-slams-poland
Another alleged Russian projectile has breached NATO airspace, which resulted in Polish warplanes being scrambled as they prepared to shoot it down.
However, what’s been declared a probable Russian ballistic missile crashed to the ground in an uninhabited field in eastern Poland, leaving a huge crater and scattered debris in its wake. Some European outlets have more simply called it an ‘unidentified object’. . .
“There was no direct threat because the missile landed in an uninhabited area. We were ready to shoot it down had it continued its flight,” he added.
Given what you have quoted and the amount of misattribution we regularly witness, I think the headline really says
“Heavy Russian attacks reach far west. Ukraine missile slams Poland”.
It wouldn’t be the first western missile that’s hit Poland.
Also, the last paragraph you quote makes no sense. If it crossed into Polish airspace, wouldn’t they shoot it down the instant they were ready, which they claim to have been?
Who’s mind worked fast enough to tell them to hold, as they have worked out that it was clearly going to drop into a field. The Russians are buggered if they go up against this person.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/qatarenergy-buys-33-us-lng-cargoes-offset-hormuz-disruption-sources-say-2026-07-30/
QatarEnergy buys 33 US LNG cargoes to offset Hormuz disruption, sources say
Qatar should be an exporter of LNG, not a buyer.
Interesting that Reuters(again) are running this story today, just as Iran announces that the first Qatari LNG cargo safely transited Hormuz, which means Qatar payed the fee and followed the new rules. Now if the US has any stomach for the fight, it must do as it said and attack that ship, for the crime of paying a fee(just like the US and Canada both charge on the St Lawrence seaway/river) and showing the world who is really in charge of that waterway.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246641/Qatari-LNG-cargo-uses-Iran-designated-route-in-Hormuz
As you say, a reversal of the natural order.
I can’t recall the year, but one time the UK was more o less saved by the arrival of some tankers from Qatar. during a very cold winter. That news item jumped out at me then.
Key Discussion Points
– Egyptian LNG Terminal Strike: Breaking down the unprecedented drone attack on an Egyptian LNG regasification ship in the Mediterranean and why a vessel turned off its AIS signal after passing Bab-el-Mandeb.
– The IRGC Drug Cartel Model: Why the Iranian regime cannot be treated like a standard government; an extremist faction controls the oil flows, operates like a drug cartel, and intentionally sabotage negotiations.
– China Supplying Man-Pads: Reuters reports China is delivering shoulder-launched missiles to IRGC militias to deny low-flying US aircraft air dominance.
– Weaponized Maritime Insurance: How Lloyd’s of London effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz without a single military vessel present by threatening to cancel insurance on any ship that pays Iranian transit fees.
– The 3-Seas Crisis & 14 Bullish Drivers: From Panama Canal droughts and low Rhine River levels to French nuclear shutdowns and Ukraine’s CPC strike (which cost multiples of Saudi production losses), Dr. Alhajji lists the unprecedented supply bottlenecks.
– The Absurdity of Global LNG Routes: Why Peru ships LNG around the South Pole to Europe while Chile imports US gas, and how Turkish maritime borders block a direct Cyprus-Egypt pipeline.
– German Energy Hypocrisy: Germany signs “clean” Canadian LNG deals only to swap them for “dirty” West Texas fracked gas, while secretly laundering Russian gas through French pipelines.
– China’s $70 Brent Threshold: Satellite data confirms China holds over 1.2 billion barrels in crude storage, hoarding below $70 Brent and releasing above $70.
Timestamps
00:00 – Intro: Special Guest Dr. Anas Alhajji joins Tony Nash & Albert Marko
01:25 – Breaking: Egyptian LNG Regasification Terminal Hit in Mediterranean
03:25 – Trump’s Rage: Base Strikes in Jordan & Saudi Abqaiq Facilities Hit
04:45 – The Cartel Model: Why the IRGC Faction Fights Like a Militia
06:45 – China Supplying Man-Pads: Countering Low-Flying US Air Dominance
09:30 – Virtual Nations & The 3-Seas Crisis (Gulf, Red Sea, Black Sea)
11:45 – Insurance as a Weapon: Lloyd’s Blockades & Hormuz Threats
14:40 – Energy Dominance: Why LNG Politics is Replacing Oil Politics
17:00 – Absurd LNG Shipping Routes: Peru, Chile, and Panama Canal Bypasses
18:30 – Cyprus-Egypt Pipeline Blocked by Turkish Maritime Borders
20:40 – The 14 Bullish Drivers for Refined Products & Energy
23:30 – Black Sea Loss: Ukraine’s CPC Strike Lost Multiples of Saudi Crude
25:10 – Russian Gasoline Imports & Heatwave Power Failures in France
27:00 – Range-Bound Crude ($70-$110) vs. Refined Product Squeeze
28:50 – European Leadership Delusions: German Swaps for Texas Fracked Gas
32:40 – China’s 1.2B Barrel Storage Strategy: Satellite Data & $70 Thresholds
https://x.com/TonyNashNerd/status/2082602279840911794
Way too many “bad” things happening.
Consumers cannot afford high-priced products. High priced products have extra shipping and insurance costs built in. The extra revenue doesn’t get back to the oil companies. This is a major reason why product prices can be high, while crude oil prices don’t seem to be nearly as high.
It seems there’s a lot of price cutting on Amazon…and very fast delivery compared to last year. But food is definitely not coming down. I’m noticing also a reduction in plant based options compared to the boom that appeared in the last decade or 2. Plant based options and taste had improved significantly since the mid 1990’s however, that is reversing now. You still have the premium products like “Beyond Meat” and “Impossible Burger” but with significant price jumps. Another thing that’s interesting is the popularity of thrift stores among the young people. I wonder if people are donating less and instead reselling as the economy gets worse.
I was in some charity shops this week, looking for cheap picture frames, and they were very busy with women looking for clothes.
Many were young and really didn’t look poor in any way; the impression I have is that it is a fashion to do so now.
Above all if an item can be called ‘vintage’ (ie long after I was born!). Usually better quality, too.
yes… the quality difference of vintage is very noticeable…
thanks so much for this summary…
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-saudi-arabia-strait-of-hormuz/
U.S.-Iran Updates: Trump says Iran to “get a beating” as war expands with U.S.-Saudi strikes in Iraq
It sounds like the conflict is spreading in many directions at once.
Why is there no more information about reserves? Are we running out? Why isn’t anyone asking this question. If the world is using a lot less oil then we are in a depression
I forget where I saw it but some were claiming global oil demand was done 1mb. which means we’re in a global depression/recession.
Which would make sense why they started this conflict. (to hide the recession + save the oil industry +help unconventional oil production)
My guess is the war was started to wipe out Iran so they would no longer be a threat to the region or aid terrorist groups that the gave bern supporting. Nothing to do with oil.
The US has been manipulating Iran’s oil production since 1979. It is part of the US’s long-term manipulation of oil prices, partly through interest rates, partly through sanctions, and partly through wars (which tend to increase demand and prices).
This is a chart I put together, but haven’t shown in a post.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Iran-oil-production-with-1979-sanctions-line-noted.png
The Iran war is an attempt to maintain the US’s hegemony. It is failing in that regard.
Gail… this is very helpful info… I know that China buys most of Iranian oil at lower than market prices… is this correct? And how long has this been going on? If you can elaborate more… thank you.
Probably since 1979.
John , simple answer . All information is corrupted and aligned to keep the futures market price low . Further data collection from the most important region the Persian Gulf is not available . There is a difference between ” reserves ” — “production ” and ” flow ” . Best is now wait and watch the regional shortages that will indicate reality a la Russia . Thanks to drb for all his updates .
The world economy is in very close to a recession, even with all the war spending. US GDP growth in the second quarter was reported at 1.5%. Young people everywhere are struggling with finding jobs that pay well. Even with advanced degrees, they cannot get the jobs they would prefer. The tech industry is doing particularly poorly.
It seems like we’ve been in recession for a while now and not just among young people. I hear that the real (street economy) has been in recession. How does this match up to your analysis?
Gail… you had warned us last year (and maybe earlier too) in a few of your monthly updates that war was coming as we run out of oil and other resources… and now its here… and it seems like its getting more and more out of control.
Another excellent read:
https://fabiovighi.substack.com/p/ai-shock-and-central-bank-trap
The new Chinese AI is free? I believe I predicted a year or two ago that the AI of the social nationalisms would exist on the creative commons provided you got the hardware.
Fabio Vighi writes well. He explains some parts of the problem, but he doesn’t get into the energy limits part of the story. I agree that we have an AI shock. If it takes away jobs, this works against what the system really needs.
I am currently settling the state of a deceased relative, and so I find myself talking to AI a lot, as this has become the first point of contact for many banks, etc.
One thing I like is that the AI voice is always clearer than the Indians and Africans one also has to deal with. These make me want to scream. The Africans in particular should not be hired at all.
I feel sorry for the call centre Indians, as they seem to be under pressure to get things done asap and are very tightly controlled by a script. Generally, it is tiring having to adjust to so many different accents, and feeling you have no common ground with the person you are speaking to.
However, the truly ridiculous thin – my main point – is that I usually have to repeat everything over again to a human employee in Stage 2, as the AI has proved inadequate.
AI seems also to be a cover excuse for the tech layoffs after the abundance of hires post Covid. The elites are trying to distract the public with such things as AI and Aliens taking over.
Not just electricity consumption, but also water:
Process Engineer Explains: The Math Behind “Water-Efficient AI Data Centres” Is Laughably Wrong
https://youtu.be/8bbe-Ev-Yns?si=JH-y6VFRqNrndRmw
I almost half believe that warsh will hike today. The 700+ dip the market is taking is them saying they believe he might and trying to influence that decision.
I disagree they are in a bad position. They will hold rates where they are the job number is bad.
I would hope the leave rates unchanged. The world economy cannot withstand a hike. If takes a lot of shooting to get oil prices up.
I’d rather higher rates then war, but then people told me i was crazy in 2020 when i said it was a financial crisis being covered up. So i’ve got that going for me. The only reason we don’t do the right thing, is control. You explain very well why the debt injections do not grow the economy, but everything else that is done is because those who have failed refuse to relinquish control.
At this point I don’t think higher rates will work either. We don’t have a strong economy with good job growth. The world economies are slowing. War is the worse thing that Trump could have done. Low oil prices would have e been stimulative in itself. War is no longer stimulative unless you win and get the spoils. I think this war is going to be over 1 trillion for the U.S after you account for the loss of lives and equipment and lost bases and reparation payments.
He chose poorly.
Should have taken the Astra Zeneca instead.
“Why is the US Economy doing well now?”?
https://profstevekeen.substack.com/p/why-is-the-us-economy-doing-well
so I’ve got that going for me (which is nice)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X48G7Y0VWW4
(couldn’t resist this Bill Murray clip from Caddyshack..he improvised the whole scene)
on your death bed you shall have total consciousness 😉
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/momentum-mayhem-korean-plunge-protectors-meet-leverage-unwind-sparks-chaos
From Momentum To Mayhem: Korean ‘Plunge Protectors’ Meet As Leverage Unwind Sparks Chaos
‘Leverage goes both ways…’
That is a lesson that many are learning in a painful manner as the army that enjoyed the momentum escalator ride up are now decrying the elevator plunge lower… and the poster-child for this pain is Korea.
Following anxiety over new Chinese competition, and disappointing earnings from SK Hynix overnight, Korea’s stock market has plunged 44% from its record highs in June (but remains up 27% YTD still)…
Also, I notice the US stock market indices are down today, and the 10-year interest rate is up. NASDAQ is down (0.90%). The 10 year interest rate is up to 4.63%.
Investment Apartments in Bratislava Are No Longer a Sound Investment
The real return on rent is falling well below four percent. Based on gross rent alone, it would take an investor approximately 23.5 years to recoup an amount equal to the price of the apartment.
https://www.trend.sk/reality/investicne-byty-v-bratislave-uz-stracaju-matematiku?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
Oh no, I wwas planning on investing in Bratislava real estate.
I guess this is happening all around the world. Or not?
The London average, as opposed to prime, property market is in trouble since 2025, what the agents are calling ‘sticky’ or ‘very slow’.
Properties take about 3 months to get an offer: at peak, it was a few weeks or so.
They have simply pushed prices up too high in relation to salaries and rapidly increasing living costs, and 50% only sell if buyers receive family help with deposits, etc.
Sellers who spent a fortune on extensions – walk down any street and it’s the main activity – will be in an uncomfortable position.
I saw a video claiming that this is an issue in the US, especially in some markets where it is hard to raise rents. Interest rates make a big difference in the out of pocket costs to the owner.
Exasomes package delivery specialists.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9hF7M2i7Fdw&pp=ygUHRXhvc29tZQ%3D%3D
Interesting four minute video. It says that exasomes used to be considered only a way for cells to get rid of waste. Now, they seem to be also a communication method among cells, and a way of possibly delivering medicines to cells. The (ever-optimistic) authors of this video list a number of possible ways the medical community can use exosomes, including curing cancer.
“I’ll guess China will be blamed, if as Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia says, Iran has upgraded its air defence(4 days ago).”
I wrote that 2 day ago and today we get
“Citing three sources familiar with the deal, Reuters said the purchase, reportedly valued at $60-70 million, is part of Tehran’s efforts to strengthen its short-range air defenses since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on the Islamic Republic.”
https://english.almanar.com.lb/article/109602/
Citing unsurprisingly, three unnamed sources, that are definitely familiar with the deal, because Iran and China always let Reuters know their secrets, at a time that’s most conducive to the corporate narrative.
Link says,
Reuters Says Iran to Get Chinese Shoulder-Launched Missile Systems in Weeks
Iran keeps getting new technology. The US is handicapped by very expensive old technology.
India bars sugar dealers from holding stocks for more than 30 days
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/india-bars-sugar-dealers-holding-110501753.html
Not only a time limit but a quantity limit too. They are not allowed to stock more than 4000 quintals (400 metric tons). Exemptions for those authorised by state and central governments and the Public Distribution System.
Ostensibly to alleviate sugar shortages. Nothing to do with the recently imposed ethanol mix in petrol /s.
Nice observation. Sugar the inefficient solar energy.
I hear you but we must differentiate a bit here, various sugar canes and molasses vs fruit and berries.
The fruit tree w. various tricks ( labor input ) could be maneuvered into favorable boundary condition of healthy non-overproduction still at small footprint, so the upkeep is strategic and minimal, and in case of excess rot or natural accident, the ~spoiled fruit is at specific stages still good enough as animal fodder or into composting process.
Is it less efficient setup per sq. meter ?
It depends, doesn’t have to be pronounced ” opportunity cost / loss ” if combined w. other species wisely.
Is it schmuck int. bln. desire get rich quick ( or potentate feeding over-pop colony ) non-compatible at the moment? You bet!
I leave windfall that isn’t OK to eat at the foot of apple trees, and also other plants to feed them – wouldn’t this be the natural cycle? Some goes into the leaf-mould bin, too.
I presume it’s meant as combined leaf and fruit windfall in one place bellow the tree/s, right? It depends on your setup and climate.
But generally, it’s mostly preferred to not allow the fruit rot there too long as the various larvae stadiums are not allowed to progress further or even overwinter at the very same place (the worst variant ever).
So, the best approach is to re-direct mini-dinosaurs (chickens), even few are hard at the job there on the spot; if the (early season) fruit is still too dense you could manually help them to crush it a bit beforehand, say by small iron rake or similar. Some, people in larger acreage setup could use pastured pigs for the same purpose, but that’s usually meant chiefly as Q3 end of season timing.
Or if not much volume at all ( few trees per small garden ) you do it all manually, rake it up all and put to specifically separated ” hot compost ” or even just some thick black sack placed in the hot sun, and when ~all is dead inside after a while dispatch it then as !covered layered – say bellow cut grass – into ordinary compost.
–
If you meant it as ( fruit ) leafs only situation – it depends as I’d prefer again some hotter form of composting as they are potentially also vector for some diseases. Or at least chop it over by riding non bagged grass mower, so it ~self de-composes qucikly etc.
Thanks JR.
Could seemingly be over the top.
But it’s a practical follow-up to real-life events.
Imagine, one season bad weather = no crop.
Imagine, next season spike in pest pressure.
Imagine, third season no response to previous..
In total you lost 2-3seasons of fruit! That results in your ~hunger and/or canceled barter opportunity.
Doesn’t matter now w. over-filled cheap canned product isles in super market, but one day or w. potentially destroyed income it suddenly rises towards top priorities.
Sugar is, of course, a form of energy that can be used either to feed human, or to make ethanol for cars.
Sorry , I did not fully clarify the post .
1 . India is /was the second largest exporter of sugar in the world .
2 . This is rationing by other means .
This is ” phase change ” .
Perhaps our bodies will be happy about less use of sugar. Of course, we also have corn syrup, which is in some ways worse.
Negative feelings among employees have increased; more than half are dissatisfied with their pay.
Another problem is a lack of recognition and bullying.
“Feelings of being stereotyped or overburdened are on the rise among employees. The JobsIndex survey identified 16 negative feelings across five categories and showed that most workers struggle with several of them at once. The most common specific negative feeling related to salary.”
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/negativne-pocity-zamestnancov-vzrastli-plat-nevyhovuje-vyse-polovici
Too much wage disparity leads to a lot of very low paid jobs. Holders of these jobs have a difficult time affording even the basic necessities for their families. No wonder employees are unhappy. This is the way “not enough energy products to go around” plays out.
I once had a job on a team of three. The other two combined only did half of what i did and we were all paid the same. Most corporation jobs are an extension of high school. Also this was in the mid 2010’s. So this crap has been going on a long time and will continue to go on until either humans evolve or we cease to exist.
It could all be solved if governments were more progressive but governments are stuck in the past
For Slovak businesses, the cheapest bank is their supplier.
Small businesses are suffering from 120-day payment terms. Electronic invoices won’t solve the problem; the European regulation has stalled, and the government itself is also paying suppliers late.
https://www.trend.sk/biznis/najlacnejsia-banka-slovenskeho-biznisu-sa-vola-dodavatel?itm_modul=react_trend_topbox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=1&itm_cb_position=top_main_1
Interesting point! This is a sign that funds available for spending are tight.
People are walking along the riverbank, and boats are operating with restrictions. The Danube is at its lowest level in 30 years
https://www.sme.sk/bratislava/c/po-dne-karloveskeho-ramena-sa-prechadzaju-ludia-lode-premavaju-s-obmedzeniami-dunaj-je-najnizsi-za-30-rokov
I am certain that companies doing trips on riverboats are having trouble, as well. There is an awfully lot of variability to weather, and we humans have little control over the situation.
As I have been posting for some time. Affordable effective weapons will change things. We’re all in glass houses now.
Not completely but in some ways we are in a situation comparable to the role deterrence plays in domestic psychology. Enforcement is well understood as expensive. Incarceration is incredibly expensive. A judges only duty is to meter out limited resources. There simply is no alternative to deterrence and it is well understood how it works. There simply are not the resources to reduce criminal behavior without deterrence.
What would happen in a world where everyone lives in glass houses and everyone has a pile of rocks? That is the world we are entering now.
The choice for nations now is practice cooperation or practice competitive collapse. The good news in my opinion is the simile does not hold. Nations are more able to practice cooperation than individuals. No where do we see the choice ahead demonstrated than the gulf.
Undoubtedly the biggest relationship in the gulf that demonstrates the changing dynamic is between Iran and Saudi. Religious rivals considering the other apostate. The issue goes far beyond USA presence. Long term USA is not a player in the gulf now. The deterrence the USA provided is gone. Saudi has to get along with Iran. Saudi has to get along with Yemen. Since everyone is in glass houses and everyone has rocks now anyone can bring it down at any time. Any one player can make the agenda competitive collapse. The alternative to competitive collapse is something the gulf nations find very very unpleasant. Cooperation.
https://www.youtube.com/live/AJ6bVE_WMvc?si=37igzFdC0I1NguWP
Your beloved redneck cops will shoot up sll the drones
Don’t worry
Certainly something to consider as we await another of your fabulous essays on Chuckie.
The video is called
“NATO TRYING TO MERGE UKRAINE AND IRAN WARS – w/ Matt Bracken
Bracken says NATO is really the US and England. They are the ones trying to merge the two wars. Zelensky is strictly a puppet. But NATO cannot possibly win in such a situation. Time is on Iran’s side. The US is running out of time. Allies are all running short of oil in SPRs.
Sooner or later the USA is going home. We went home from Afghanistan. We went home from Libya. We went home from Iraq. We went home from Korea. We went home from Vietnam..
It might be 20 days or 20 years but sooner or later we are going home.
The only questions are…
1 has there been a new nuclear weapon deployment?
2 are the oil infrastructure facilities destroyed?
3 how bad is the world economy?
Actually that’s when things really get interesting. It will be a totally different world. That is the point when we see if nations will practice cooperation or competitive collapse.
Certainly I will be glad when it happens but it will not be a end but really a begining.
That’s what I found interesting about the analysis. The perspective that something very new is starting.
Good points! I didn’t get to the end of the interview.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize. The Middle East is very overpopulated. Building vacation travel spots in the Middle East makes no sense. Somehow, this all needs to come to an end in a more-efficient world.
Cooperation is right.
Primus just dropped a new one, dog. Hell yeah. (Music video.)
https://youtu.be/RE2oERgJkXg
First time poster, long time reader, I remember Gail from the Oil Drum. The Bracken interview was interesting, he pushes what some have been saying further. The NEW DOMINATION paragdim now rests on what is usually called ‘Terrorism’ – so called rogue, evil, extremist, small-group actions, forays (IRA bombs, Baader-Meinhof Gang, from within, others from ‘without’ like ‘Islamic Terrorists’ and that kind of stuff, these often false flag), condemned in all ways possible, as a threat to the Powers in Place.
Now the Mega powers in the world have lost supremacy dependent on threats, supposed protection, all shown to be hollow (e.g. US bases, Trump tariffs, Kontrol of world finance, etc.) they resort to what their enemies implement. Of course this has to do with arms, armaments, etc., as pointed out in the vid link. ‘Terrorism’ such as killing children in schools, civilian infrastructure, etc.
Good points!
I am not commenting on oil markets etc because they are too highly manipulated and there is no explanation . Look at prices today and pre war for non manipulated markets .
Oil + 20%
Sulfuric Acid + 300%
Urea + 100 %
Helium — do you have any ?
Yes, the KOSPI is vanquished because the companies cannot make chips without Helium . TSMC shut down operations in Japan because of the earthquake . AI is dead . Thank you for your attention .
3D chess or suicide ? Lloyd’s on the subject .
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1158003/3D-chess-The-interwoven-tanker-effects-of-Iranian-Houthi-and-Ukrainian-attacks
Based on the chart shown, worldwide seaborne crude volumes took a step down by about 15% (or about 6.5 million tonnes) in mid-March.
Also, charges for shipping crude oil are recently higher in the Black Sea. If a person clicks on the tabs, it is clear rates have been very variable. Current rates are lower than they were earlier this year.
Sulfuric acid prices vary greatly by region. According to this link, your numbers might be right for Northeast Asia, but they definitely aren’t for the US or Europe.
https://www.imarcgroup.com/sulfuric-acid-pricing-report
I expect urea and helium are also more local issues than international issues. The US is the world’s largest supplier of helium.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/charted-helium-production-by-country/
I didn’t get the impression that the latest earthquake damaged much of anything in Japan.
For anyone watching oil, please read this.
Here’s the game Trump is playing right now:
The immediate goal of this administration is to suppress oil through the paper market, media coordinated headlines, selective leaks, diplomatic signaling and constant jawboning. Then let algos, CTAs and forced long liquidation amplify the move.
All they need is to keep the market believing that Hormuz flows are about to restart, even while physical traffic remains severely depressed.
Then get an MoU or some kind of temporary pause in place, move a few tankers through, declare the route reopened and quietly fix the actual mess behind the curtain.
This is literally the same move they keep pulling throughout this conflict. Manipulate expectations as hard as possible, protect the surface narrative and buy time while scrambling to patch the underlying dogshit situation.
So understand that a bet on triple-digit oil is not a pure bet on fundamentals.
It’s also a bet that the Trump administration loses control of the optics, headlines and narrative warfare before it can restore the actual barrels.
https://x.com/VonburyResearch/status/2082138160276934859
Houthis Fire On Saudi Vessel, More Ships Make U-Turns, After ‘MoU Revival’ Hype Returns ,
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/war-pause-holds-trump-vows-destroy-pickaxe-mountain-if-no-deal-oman-pushes-hormuz
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=n5FKWykS0i4&pp=ugUHEgVlbi1VUw%3D%3D
Massive oil fire at World’s largest oil plant in Saudi Arabia
The same old photo of the Jazan pin prick over and over again. I can’t find a single image of Abquaiq. Videos seeking doom clicks. They all talk about satellite imagery of a big fire then show Jazan instead.
Ooh I like that. We’ve got helium to barter. Semiconductor manufacture uses a bit of helium.
https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202607280018
“Japan Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Inc. (JASM), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s (TSMC) subsidiary in Kumamoto Prefecture, Japan, evacuated employees after a powerful earthquake struck the region Tuesday afternoon, according to the company.”
Yes, I don’t know how we’re gonna be able to go forward. They are manipulating the system so bad that no one is going to have any more trust it would work if there wasn’t international trade as soon as we start having the job losses or if they admit it, but who knows they lie about everything. Anyone who believes anything Trump says is an idiot
Where are the shortages? They’ve got to be coming soon.
Iran just attacked again
Carlos1983
1d
Empires don’t fall the day they lose a war; they fall the day the world discovers their threats no longer materialize. It happened to the United Kingdom in 1956, in an Egyptian canal. It’s happening to the United States now, in a Persian strait, and hardly anyone seems to have noticed.
In 1956, when Nasser nationalized the Suez Canal, London reacted as what it still believed itself to be: the power that had ruled half the planet. It invaded Egypt alongside France and Israel, won militarily in a matter of days, and yet had to withdraw in humiliation within weeks. It was not the Egyptian army that defeated it, but the evidence: the pound sterling plummeted, Washington refused to support it, and the entire world understood that Great Britain could no longer act alone. Nasser lost the battle but won the era. Suez did not destroy the British Empire; it merely certified a death that had already occurred, and from that moment on, decolonization was a landslide.
Seventy years later, the script is repeating itself with unsettling precision. Since February 28, 2026, following the US-Israeli air offensive and the assassination of the Iranian Supreme Leader, the Strait of Hormuz—through which a quarter of the world’s oil flowed—has remained essentially closed. The United States has responded as London did: with the grammar of empire. Ultimatums with a date and time, threats of “total destruction,” promises to turn the enemy country into a hellhole. And yet, every ultimatum has been postponed, every deadline extended, every “final 48 hours” transformed into a new round of negotiations. The naval escort operation, announced with great fanfare, was suspended after two days. Months pass, and the strait remains closed by force.
Here’s the detail that almost everyone misses: American military superiority is real, just as British superiority was in 1956, and it’s exactly as irrelevant. Washington can bomb power plants, assassinate leaders, blockade ports. What it can’t do is the one thing that matters: ensure that an oil tanker crosses the Strait of Hormuz without bursting into flames. Imperial power never consisted of the capacity to destroy, but rather the capacity to guarantee order—transit, trade, predictability. The day that guarantee is broken and cannot be restored, the empire is finished, even if its aircraft carriers continue to sail.
And as in Suez, the bill isn’t being collected by the enemy, but by the system. Back then, it was the pound sterling that revealed British weakness; today it’s the price of oil, imported inflation, and, on the horizon, the dollar itself as the currency of energy trade. Each week of closure teaches China, India, and the Gulf producers how to live without American protection: alternative pipelines, new routes, payments in other currencies, regional agreements that no longer go through Washington. The Gulf allies, who should be the backbone of the American response, call the escalations “serious” and are looking for their own way out. It’s the same every-man-for-himself mentality that followed Suez, when the colonies realized that the metropolis could no longer protect or punish them.
That is why Iran will win this war, even if it loses on the ground, just as Nasser won. It will not win by conquering anything: it will win by surviving. Its regime did not collapse even after the death of its supreme leader; its succession was resolved; its ability to close the strait remains intact after months of bombing. For an empire, a draw is defeat; for those who challenge it, survival is victory. Every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Tehran demonstrates to the entire world the thesis that no hegemonic power can afford to have proven: that the United States can be told no.
When historians write about the end of American hegemony, they won’t point to a great lost battle or a spectacular collapse. They’ll point to this fifty-kilometer-wide strait, these extended ultimatums, this naval escort canceled in 48 hours. They’ll say that, as at Suez, the empire didn’t die at Hormuz: it merely ceased to be able to pretend it was still alive. It took the British years to accept this. The Americans haven’t even begun. But the world—which always understands these things before the empires themselves—is already acting accordingly.
Copy/paste from Quark .
More like hostile take-over of yielding assets among ~cousins ( UK->US )..
That is a very fine comment. A couple of excellent points:
Imperial power never consisted of the capacity to destroy, but rather the capacity to guarantee order—transit, trade, predictability. The day that guarantee is broken and cannot be restored, the empire is finished, even if its aircraft carriers continue to sail.
In my mind, religions have been popular because they provide order and predictability. One they simply are rubber stamps for what the powers that be want, they don’t mean much. Also, US has lost its hegemony, whether or not it wins this war:
For an empire, a draw is defeat; for those who challenge it, survival is victory. Every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Tehran demonstrates to the entire world the thesis that no hegemonic power can afford to have proven: that the United States can be told no.
Again blame USA for falling empires and creating countries which are good for absolutely nothing.
If only Germany won the war, right Kulmmie?
Come on, say it…
USA interfered with Holland and created the monstrosity called Indonesia
And as mentioned in the article it also meddled with the British and French (and Israeli) attempt to conquer the Suez
Nothing to do with Germany at all
I blame Gandhi!
He wouldn’t) eat his dinner so they gave him India!
A century ago under the British Raj, the population of India was about 200 million. Now it’s about 2 billion!
There’s your overpopulation criminal right there! 🙂
As an aside, it’s interesting that Nepal and Ceylon were not part of British India, but Burma, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Aden, the Trucial States (current UAE) and Muscat and Oman were. The protectorates on the Arabian peninsula used a currency called the gulf rupee.
Real life report . As many here know I work as an independent courier with the big boys ” DHL , etc ” . Diesel is my life blood . Here is a time line , all prices are in Euro / per litre .
March 1 — Euro 1.75
April 1 — Euro 2.45
Govt reduces tax by O.50 ;
Price is now Euro 1.90
There is an oil glut on the way narrative takes hold .
Price goes down to Euro 1.75 . All thru May/ June till 15th July . Then they start rising. Today they are Euro 2.10 per litre . No , the govt has not increased any tax . My thought is we can be in for rationing a la Russia in 3-4 weeks on diesel if not petrol .
From Belgium .
France and Spain are suffering firestorms. Those two countries, coincidentally, have been the most outspoken in Europe against Netanyahu’s actions against Gaza.
Sometimes you just can’t see the wood for the firestorm of conspiracy theories:
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/07/28/weather-warfare-dews-arson-triggered-firestorms-in-france-and-spain-leave-same-evidence-as-california-and-maui-pyroterrorism/#more-420388
https://stateofthenation.info/?p=1436
https://stateofthenation.info/?p=18434
https://stateofthenation.info/?p=18430
Elizabeth Nickson writes:
Fourteen years ago I published a book one chapter of which entirely dealt with the reason for the forests fires currently raging across Canada, choking the lungs of Americans from Maine to Chicago. It was published by Harper Collins in New York, and received a good old fashioned push by their PR department.
I woke up at 4 am to get on drive time in Texas and Atlanta. I must have spoken to 30 million people – in theory. The PR kept me up on the numbers each radio host had: I spoke to the big names, including the sainted Dennis Prager which pleased HC no end. In each interview I hit the major highlight of the book – the most shocking crime against people and nature – outlining how “natural regulation” installed by the UN FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) had made the forests dense, desiccated: visualize a whole bunch of unthinned little trees leaching all the water from the soil, fire ladders growing up the trees, just waiting for a lightning strike or stupid “activist” kid to trigger conflagration.
All over the world, these policies, these regulations had been forced in a series of iniquitous meetings where entire nations were placed under the rule of weedy, stupid, vicious idiots who called themselves “scientists,” employed in Turtle Bay, who had, courtesy of the Rockefellers and a bunch of other malignant families – basically the ones holding the debt of the New York Federal Reserve – crowned themselves Lords of Nature. And, as I began to understand, planned to take it all from us.
To do that, they proceeded to destroy us, our economy, our childrens’ futures, and the forests, ranges, mines, farms and rural towns of America, by destroying the ground of our being, our access to the water, food, fibre, forests, land and ranches of our world.
First step: burn us out.
This Is Why the Middle Class is Dying…..
https://elizabethnickson.substack.com/p/are-we-in-time-is-the-left-gearing-81f
Some shipping over longer route (at higher cost) , allows some Saudi oil to continue to be exported. Also, Chinese linked cargo seems to be excepted.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Houthi-Threats-Force-Saudi-Crude-Tanker-Onto-Suez-Route-To-Asia.html
Houthi Threats Force Saudi Crude Tanker Onto Suez Route To Asia
The Houthi threats to shipping in the Red Sea and its chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have forced at least one oil tanker carrying Saudi crude to Asia to choose the much longer route through the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean, and around Africa.
The supertanker Olympic Luck, partially laden with Saudi crude at Yanbu on the Red Sea, transited the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean late on Sunday, according to shipping data monitored by Bloomberg.
The U-turn from Bab el-Mandeb indicates that some tanker owners aren’t willing to risk crossing southward into the Arabian Sea on the much shorter route to Asia, as the Iran-aligned Houthis have threatened – and struck – Saudi tankers in the Red Sea in recent days. . .
Despite the reduced traffic through Bab el-Mandeb, “Saudi crude has not stopped moving. It has bifurcated,” maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Sunday.
“Yanbu port has transitioned to entirely AIS-dark tanker operations at berth as vessels shield against a Houthi hit list,” it added. . .
Chinese-linked cargo continues transiting Bab al-Mandeb under the Houthis’ established carve-out, the firm said.
NAZDAQ is again down this morning, so far at (1.17%). Zerohedge has an article:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chart-jensen-huang-does-not-want-you-see
This is the Chart that Jensen Huang Does Not Want You to See
It talks about the circular promises within the space. Buyers of stock and bonds are increasingly moving to other sectors.
The WSJ has an article as well:
Chip Stocks Under Pressure as AI Worries Push Investors to Other Sectors
The Dow rose as investors turn away from stocks like Micron and Intel.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-28-2026
The WSJ also shows a link to another article:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-28-2026/card/what-s-behind-the-selloff-in-chip-stocks–3n8dC8axqViQNUeq4e8W
What’s Behind the Selloff in Chip Stocks?
It lists three causes:
a. Chinese strides
b. A possible megaproject: A Wall Street Journal report that Nvidia could provide a roughly $250 billion backstop for a massive OpenAI data-center project helped send shares in the chip giant down 5% yesterday, sparking concerns about the extent to which Nvidia is investing in its own customers.
c. Supercharged AI spending: Investors are skittish about other U.S. tech giants’ heavy spending, too, with Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon all due to report earnings later this week. . . He says investor worry that excessive spending “will eat into returns.”
This zero hedge article seems to be related. An earlier video talked about the big Korean stock market sell off.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/korea-massacre-kospi-crashes-chip-stocks-tank-ai-token-index-spirals-lower
“What’s Behind the Sell-off in Chip Stocks?”
Maybe the fact that their valuations have reached utterly absurd levels and the “smart money” never holds out for the top dollar?
This is also happening, coincidentally.
There is no correlation wit this and the the slow-down in investment in a.i. Nothing to see here. Move along, folks.
The Jobs Apocalypse Was Just Called Off By The People Who Predicted It
By Don Muir,
h ttps://www.forbes.com/sites/donmuir/2026/07/25/the-jobs-apocalypse-was-just-called-off-by-the-people-who-predicted-it/
Weird time right now, witnessing them do a total 180, or pivot.
article:
The bottom rung returns as AI reshapes entry-level jobs
https://ww w.ibm.com/think/news/entry-level-roles-get-reset-
excerpt: “If we don’t continue to invest in entry-level hires, what happens in 3–5 years?” she asked. “There’s no pipeline; the well simply dries up.”
Since when did anyone in American business leadership plan beyond the next 3-5 years?
Not at all. 2020 was a financial crisis. You don’t run 2 trillion deficits during boom times. Only other time i saw one that big was 2008. And that didn’t last nearly as long. Covid was a cover to print massive amounts of money, and AI job losses are just an excuse to trim an unimaginative industry that over hired during 0% rates while also telling you how wonderful they are and how bright the future will be at the same time.
I agree.
Major earthquake hits Kumamoto, Japan.
Unknown number of dead and injured.
The upper floor of a shopping mall has collapsed and people are trapped in the building.
This will affect TSMC’s chip production.
It’s interesting that major earthquakes often strike around the time of the full moon or new moon.
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/extremely-strong-earthquake-hits-japans-kyushu-island
I suppose that a big concern is the possibility of more earthquakes to come.
In the entire existence of humanity, progress was most rapid during the so–called Belle Epoque, where all the gains were concentrated to the top , with the ;working class'(which was called lower class until around 1990s) deriving very little benefit from it.
With few resources wasted to better the lot of the masses, civilization jumped by leaps and bounds.
Which is why I will continue to curse the three greateset criminals of Westeern World, Gabby Princip the transverite, Joe Gallieni the Italian, and Chucky Fitzclarence , literally a grandson of a royal bastard.
Without these three, the Bell Epoque would have continued, Ho Chi Minh would have ended his days as a laborer somewhere in the West, the late Dr, Robert Firth wouod have instead spent most of his life as a teacher in Burma, etc, and some of the people who still clamor the British grandeur now after it no longer remained Great would also have died in continents not named Europe as some kind of colonials.
Thanks to these three criminals, the Russian Revolution occurred and the upper class of the West had to fear the mobs crashing into these mansions, which is why resources began to be redistributed for the first time in human existence and peoples who had no business having any comforts began to consume an inordinate amount of resources.
Chungking around 1940s
https://youtu.be/bISqBHfiTjM?si=aTYMg_B72MCZ8yYx
still full of rickshaws (btw rickshaw was invented by an American in Japan around 1868. Nobody in Asia had thought about it till then – so much for Asian intelligence)
Chungking , called Chongqing(pronounced Choong-ching) by the commies, now
https://youtu.be/KHHlcCUTwZA?si=bjhSaOIYB8dTl_4X
A perfect display of resource misallocation (Chongqing is in the middle of a mountain! range).
The West bartered space exploration and a Type I Civilization for 7 billion people who do not contribute anything to civilization but did consum copious amount of resources for nothing.
Kill the poor!
But make them suffer and grovel at the feet of their deserving superior advanced “civilized masters”. Of course, this comes from being born in the “chosen” family …something like here
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/h4oXpFPlcQI
Better think twice before you sound off on those “deserving”,
Might bite you
The Austrian Branch died out but Maria Theresia opened the door for more families which could claim some kind of royal origin so problem was solved
I’m sure you meant: Kill them…….slowly!
Not necessary. Work them till they drop , with little pay, is the more sensible way
It’s interesting that many people blame the Rothschilds or Kaiser Bill or George the Fifth for orchestrating the Great War, financing the Russian Revolution, and much other mischief besides. Yet you seem convinced Gabby, Joe, and Chucky were unwittingly the prime cause of the decline and fall of Western Civ.
You could be correct there. At least you are not a consensus hugger.
I am myself still outraged about what Chucky did. Without him the Middle East would be queer and peaceful. Rainbow flags everywhere. It never, ever occurs to me that these civilizations are taking over because they are based on superior principles.
Chuckt’s crime cost the best of the Empire and make the Irish uppity.
Rothschilds, Rothschilds, ..
There were several branches of them, each focusing on different sector-section of the world. It all ends in tears inevitably.
Here for example, the case of wealthy lady implicated in that Mayerling affair through pushing her daughter around to even upper circles.
She hired for way smaller project the same french architect who had done the palatial estate for the Austrian Rothschilds, among other great gigantic sized works for various European potentates.
Few decades and then century+ passed along so quickly, and now her villa ended up as ruin.
http://ruine.at/villavetsera.htm
more interior pic
(you don’t have to register just zoom-up 200%):
https://unterirdisch.de/index.php?threads/die-ruine-der-ehem-villa-von-mary-vetsera.16455/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helene_von_Vetsera
The monarchs or bankers make good scapegoat but it us nobodies like the 3 Criminals or the nobodies who cause more harm
The scum of the earth, who ate better and had leadership positions for the first time in their family tree, liked the destruction of western tradition and belle epoque
From my own experience, “the scum of the earth” in the UK used to “have it in” for the middle and upper classes, and vice versa. There was much resentment and disgust all around, which fueled the “class warfare” that characterized the society very effectively. It was a cold war of “our lot” against “your lot”.
But although there were a lot of workers among the proletariat and some of them were “real scum”, they were powerless to revolt given their place in the system~just as most of us are powerless to step outside of the organizational, economic and financial systems we are bound up with today.
Orwell had them sussed:
“So long as they continued to work and breed, their other activities were without importance. Left to themselves, like cattle turned loose upon the plains of Argentina, they had reverted to a style of life that appeared to be natural to them, a sort of ancestral pattern…Heavy physical work, the care of home and children, petty quarrels with neighbors, films, football, beer and above all, gambling filled up the horizon of their minds. To keep them in control was not difficult.”
The friction between the classes–and in many cases there was genuine visceral hatred of the other based on nothing more than a stranger’s manner of speech, dress, or bearing~was palpable and destructive of the social fabric. It prevented a lot of things from being done properly or efficiently. One American writer penned a book about it called Britain Against Itself.
It is for this reason that I can imagine that the upper levels in the UK and possibly elsewhere might have instigated or orchestrated things such as the various wars, the various poisoning campaigns such as through “vaccines”, and the mass importation of immigrants from incompatible cultures–all for the sake of keeping a lid on the working class.
But that, as they say, is another story.
Ah yes, Tim, the Monty Python sketch ‘I look down on him because…’ etc. How good to escape it all by moving thousands of miles away!
I remember an absurd article no more than 10 years ago by the conservative journalist Max Hastings, who would no doubt regard himself as ‘upper-middle class’, in which he asked, hilariously and in all seriousness:
‘Where is the humble tradesman who once doffed his (flat) cap and called one ‘Sir’?’
One of the partners in the antiquarian bookshop here, David’s, related to me that when, as a rebellious, long-haired, flared trousered youth in the 1970s, he was almost choking on having to address the customers, mostly gay dons, as Sir, old Mr David said:
‘Come on boy, you know how to spell Sir don’t you? It’s C…U… R! ‘
His other bon mot was , if they tipped sixpence by throwing it on the floor ‘don’t bend over to pick it up with your back to them !’ This particularly applied to Maynard Keynes’s old College, King’s…..
But, surely, the Covid poisoned vaxxes were the great equaliser, as the middle class, I think it has been shown, were the most enthusiastic embracers of the death cult, and are clearly viewed as disposable now as Irish navvies and Durham coal miners used to be……
For our step-wise future scenarios discussion here this one of many but very fitting examples provides the following clues:
– although part of elite circles DIDN’T expect such after-effects from lost WWI and / or the follow-up final stage in fragmentation of the Empire
– although from lineage of ~int. financier fixers ( and likely inner circle of friends / advisers ) was herself destroyed at the end and after-math of the war, meaning could have easily ( @ %% some loss ) sell some of the properties during the war etc, BUT instead keeping up appearances most likely dependent ( lavish living-style ) on income from state debt issuance and mil-linked industrial stocks ..
Hence the final wipe-out after the war in early 1920s.
History, doesn’t repeat exactly the same but certainly tends to rhyme along similar patterns.
Very similar patterns should be expected to occur in next 20yrs.
Wow! That is quite a change.
I remember visiting the city in 2011. You are right. It is up in the mountains, on the Yangtze River. We took a river boat ride from Chongqing to Wuhan, and then flew to Shanghai.
I took this photo back in 2011. Someone was plowing with a water buffalo.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/05/man-with-water-buffalo.jpg
Changing is like Peking or Shanghail now
Chongqing is the Detroit of China. They make cars and air pollution. They have massive air pollution.
Contagious Cancer Found in North American Catfish
Scientists identified the first known cancer transmissible among freshwater fish in a lake that spans the US and Canada.
https://www.wired.com/story/contagious-cancer-found-in-north-american-catfish/
I caught a 20lb flathead catfish once. Had to pull up anchor and let it run for a little so it wouldn’t snap the line.
Only some people in the South and the Vietnamese eat catfish
No great loss
I grew up in small town rural Indiana and people loved it there. Then moved to Michigan when I was in High school and NOBODY (except ghetto trash) eats it here. Everyone up here eats Walleye, Salmon, or lake Perch.
I am wondering if there might be something to “transmission of human cancer.”
I have a sister who is 76, very recently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Her husband, at 74, was diagnosed with cancer of the esophagus a couple of months ago. Their son, at 49, died a couple of weeks ago of some form of liver cancer. The son didn’t live with them until the last few months of his life, when he went into hospice care at their home, but they were together quite a bit before he moved in.
I imagine they all shared the same poor diet–too much highly processed food, including lots of restaurant food.
Living organisms don’t react well to efforts to industrialize food production. There are costs that are not accounted for, in productivity increases in food production , such as all the diseases they seem to be associated with that should be subtracted from the positive monetary value of productivity increases in food production.
Athletes have a distorted view of reality and that is why economists who view the reality as competition, are wrong. Google Gemini provided me this concise definition:
Whereas an athlete perceives the world as a sprint for a medal, actual reality more closely resembles the effort to keep a complex machine operating with constantly dwindling fuel supplies.
https://share.gemini.google/wDIokjMpOCNt
Interesting!
I have heard a comment that the world’s largest machine is the electrical grid. Trying to keep the grid operating, with ever more intermittent supply that doesn’t quite fit with the rest of the grid, is quite a feat. But electricity modelers don’t make the connection.
Today, electricity only provides about 20% of world energy supply today. Ramping up to 100% looks very iffy. For one thing, the grid and all parts of the renewable energy system are made with fossil fuels. Repairs are made with fossil fuels, too.
Here’s a rather bullish view of Japan’s current energy situation and strategy.
Japan Chooses Reliable Energy Over Climate Nonsense
By Vijay Jayaraj
Not long ago, Japan stood before the world pledging to become a paragon of decarbonization. Government papers were filled with talk of hydrogen corridors, offshore wind farms, and electric vehicle subsidies.
To satisfy international climate lobbies, Japan planned for years to phase out coal. Operations at coal-fired power plants were restricted to only 50% capacity. Political leaders spoke solemnly of a “moral duty” to achieve “carbon neutrality” by 2050, pledging a 60% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 and a 73% cut by 2040, both measured from 2013 levels.
But as geopolitical reality intruded, this stance dissipated.
More Oil for Japan and Its Neighbors
Japan is among the world’s top five oil importers, importing more than 94% of its crude oil from the Middle East. When transit through the Strait of Hormuz was interrupted, the impact was immediate.
Officials introduced subsidies to keep regular gasoline prices from climbing beyond tolerable levels. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi quickly ordered the release of 80 million barrels from oil stockpiles, equivalent to about 45 days of domestic demand. Releases began in mid-March from sites across the country. A fuel once portrayed as the enemy in net zero rhetoric now receives protection to prevent economic disruption.
Japan is preparing to formalize a new energy‑first posture in a revised strategy to be unveiled in August. Greater weight will be given to the security of fossil fuel supplies. Imports are already increasing from the United States, Canada, Mexico, Central and South America, Africa, and other parts of Asia. The prime minister anticipates avoiding altogether shipping through Hormuz.
For the first time, crude oil from the United States has arrived directly in Japan: Cosmo Oil recently brought into Tokyo Bay 910,000 barrels of U.S. crude. Japan Petroleum Exploration plans to quadruple its oil and gas output over the next decade—up to 180,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2035—backed by $7.3 billion in exploration and production spending, with over 50% that money going towards U.S. assets.
Tokyo has also refused to abandon fossil fuel supplies that are politically awkward but strategically valuable. Despite being an U.S. ally, Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, describes even Russian crude as “extremely important” to Japanese security.
There’s a reason why Tokyo is putting its money into procuring crude: Oil is built into everything. Japan’s vast petrochemical industry, anchored by giants such as Idemitsu Kosan, JXTG Nippon Oil & Energy, and Mitsui Chemicals, converts crude into synthetic fibers, fertilizers, resins, paints, and electronic components.
These products form the largely unseen foundation of modern manufacturing. Every smartphone, car dashboard, and solar panel relies on petrochemicals. Without them, Japan’s export engine would grind to a halt. Substances much demonized by net zero enthusiasts are used to make semiconductors, ship coatings, and electric-vehicle batteries.
Beyond its borders, Japan is supporting development of oil resources through the new Partnership on Wide Energy and Resources Resilience (POWERR) Asia framework. Tokyo has committed $10 billion to support crude procurement, bolster strategic reserves, and shore up logistics for import‑dependent countries across Southeast Asia.
Coal is Not Forgotten
Japan, like its neighbor South Korea, is reopening coal-fired power plants once condemned as relics of a dirtier era. Energy officials cited “extraordinary supply uncertainty” as justification for using the same fuel they had promised to eliminate.
Representatives from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) stated that increasing coal operations serves as an immediate solution to conserve natural gas. The agency noted that increasing uncertainty regarding the future availability of LNG forces the government to develop emergency response plans.
Prime Minister Takaichi said expanded coal usage, combined with restarted nuclear plants, would offset about 40% of the LNG imports Japan previously received through the Strait of Hormuz. By simply letting older coal plants operate without political handicaps, METI projects a massive savings of 500,000 tons of LNG over the fiscal year.
Japan’s thousands of factories, chemical plants, and data centers cannot pause for the cloudy or windless days that make solar and wind energy so unreliable, and dependency on imports leaves no margin for experimentation.
Taken together, the decisions supporting use of oil, gas, and coal exhibit an unwavering commitment to proven, reliable energy sources. Japan is refusing to sacrifice security for climate diplomacy.
The Japanese people have a legacy of resilience, engineering brilliance, and industrial mastery. Today, the country stands firm against climate dogma to secure its industrial future with the hydrocarbons that built its greatness in the first place.
https://townhall.com/columnists/vijayjayaraj/2026/07/11/japan-chooses-reliable-energy-over-climate-nonsense-n2679214#google_vignette
I have been saying that the climate change narrative is simply a cover story, so that public officials don’t have to tell people about our fossil fuel problem. There is no way that we can possibly reduce our fossil fuel consumption, as planned. At the time the narrative was put together, it was believed that intermittent electricity might be made a substitute for oil, but it is increasingly clear that this is not the case.
The issue that this columnist misses the fact that if fossil fuels are available today, they must be expensive-to-produce fossil fuels. The amount people can afford to pay for products made with fossil fuels (including food) is determined by the size of their paychecks. Their paychecks do not rise high enough to buy expensive food, made and transported with oil. Thus, all citizens can afford is, indirectly, cheap to produce fossil fuels.
Japan has, for a very long time, been using debt and more debt to fund all of the programs Japan wants, including jobs for everyone. I expect that the program that Japan is planning for will be extremely costly. It will need to be funded with even more debt, especially Japanese government debt.
The problem is that debt of the government of Japan is already at a nosebleed level. Recently, the yen has been falling relative to the US dollar. The falling yen no doubt takes into account the unlikelihood of success with the new energy approach.
Excellent points, Gail. For about four decades, Japan has led the world in piling up debt as if there was no tomorrow. It’s as if the only economic theory they are working from is the one put forward by J.M. Keynes that government spending involves a “multiplier” effect that can enhance economic activity beyond its initial cost.
Almost everyone in Japan I speak to who thinks they know anything about the economy is convinced the country will declare bankruptcy at some point, and this has been the case since as far back as the Lehman shock. But amazingly the show goes on.
Most of the debt is owed to Japanese nationals, and the country built up a huge pile of foreign holdings during the “fat years” that it is able to draw on in the current period of “managed decline”.
I don’t know what precise “magic tricks” the owners and managers have up their sleeves to keep the lights on and the trucks running, but they are aiming for diversity of energy supplies and long-term deals to lock in the price of energy sources.
There are still quite a few legacy coal-fired and nuclear power plants that are currently idle and can be brought back online without the need to build from scratch. Also, population is falling by around one percent per year, which calls for different economic and financial strategies from those that would make sense if the population was expanding.
17 states are under an emergency order for electricity.
“The order is a last resort before issuing Level 3 Energy Emergency Alerts, which could lead to rolling blackouts throughout the U.S.”
https://www.kgw.com/article/news/nation-world/17-states-under-emergency-order-electricity/507-0927303d-ca49-46ec-b57c-a9736feeb43d?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot
The states in question are
Arizona
Arkansas
Colorado
Iowa
Kansas
Louisiana
Minnesota
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Mexico
North Dakota
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Texas
Utah
Wyoming
Many of these states have a lot of wind energy. You cannot depend on wind for power in hot weather. The article doesn’t mention wind power.
Solar energy tends to peak early in the day, and demand continues into the evening. So it really needs batteries to work later in the day.
Gimme sum Doom: data centers as cover for the Olduvai blackouts.
As much as I love me some doom porn. This actually happens often in poorer parts of the world. It’s literally the plot to the movie “The Hangover 2”. Remember the one buddy gets stuck in an elevator during a rolling blackout and passes out. And the rest of the friends have to find him and can’t figure out where he’s gone?
Flashback: Fauci Funded Technique To Hide Evidence Of Genetic Engineering According To RFK Jr.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/flashback-fauci-funded-technique-hide-evidence-genetic-engineering-according-rfk-jr
Four years ago, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made an accusation that got him shadowbanned, “fact-checked,” and dismissed as a crank: that Anthony Fauci’s NIAID had bankrolled the development of a laboratory technique whose primary utility was erasing the fingerprints of human engineering from a manipulated virus – and that the technique was then handed to the Wuhan Institute of Virology. . .
Kennedy’s remarks are worth revisiting.
Here’s what he said:
“He [Fauci] funded Ralph Baric to develop a technique called seamless ligation. And that is a technique for hiding the engineering project.”
“So, normally, when you do that kind of engineering, you can see it, and you can say, ‘That bug was created in a lab.'”
“He [Baric] developed a way of hiding all traces [of what] was developed. And he taught that to the Chinese scientists – to Shi Zhengli.”
“There is no public health [reason for this]; it is the OPPOSITE of what you would do if you are interested in public health… To teach people how to hide that only has a nefarious purpose.”
Later excerpt:
And Baric’s career is over. As Paul Thacker noted, NIH has quietly removed Baric from all his grants; UNC has placed him on leave and refused to cooperate with federal document requests. Jeffrey Sachs – who chaired the Lancet COVID commission – now points at Baric directly. Robert Redfield told RCI he briefed Mike Pompeo in a SCIF in early 2020: “Mike, this is the smoking gun. This virus came from a lab.”
A senior HHS official put it to RCI more bluntly: “Baric designed the gun. But the Chinese built it, and then they pulled the trigger.”
Ha good one. China pulled the trigger. In their own living room
“I call it the China virus
Why not it came from China?
Chààaaaaaynààaaaaaaaa..”
The hero of Hormuz
Yeah good one. Everyone in China ‘knows’ that the mythical offender came from Ft Detrick but only we know that Ft D’s military research contracts with Cornell University are the true breadcrumbs that lead back to the Source materials:
https://poeticphase1.org/program/metastasis-and-exosome-developmental-laboratory/
Hey boss, I’m only calling it Hormooz cuz you call it Hormooz. Feeling rudderless right now with you using the inferior spelling.
I did notice the compliment and agree to standardize spelling.
Interesting link. Briefly. in your opinion was the function of exosomes considered when c19 was engineered?
Yes, of course the Hand considered the function of exosomes because the vaxx platform — the ‘remedy’ — is a variably concentrated classified tumor exosome bomb. The Hand knows everything about the falsity of virology and the biological truth of cancer and signaling exosomes than I do and more.
The “function of exosomes” is to carry out 99pc of biological evolution. Horizontal genetic transfer via signaling exosomes is 99pc of evolution. It’s an epigenetic Soupworld because the vertical transfer from copulation, while obviously the Mack Daddy of transfers, is a one time deal – a picture in time.
I take it by c19 you mean SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 wasn’t engineered and distributed. The Ft Detrick stuff on my part is tongue in cheek. There was no manufactured SARS-CoV-2. SARS-CoV-2 is just an uncatalogued flu-related signaling exosome, and probably a newly evolved one related to 5G stress because the landmark Chinese study proved that 5g exposure causes the upregulation of fibrin production by fibroblasts and one of the biological hallmarks of ‘flu’ dynamics is the increased production of MMP enzymes to break down the excess (and therefore toxic) deposits because the ‘flu’ is in truth an emergency detoxification protocol.
That mythically narrated creature of Jekyll Island in SARS-CoV-2 was just a naturally existing new flu-exosome vehicle Problem for a casedemic Reaction that necessitated the vaxx Solution. If a new millimeter wave electromagnetic pollution stressor comes along, human cells have to adapt to it and in doing so have to communicate and coordinate those adaptations by modifying existing, established adaptations. Initially that means a high production of those signals because the genetic Soupworld is thick and noisy, so if a new adaptation wants to get a word in edgewise it has to shout. Then, later, as adaptation is established, the adaptation just enters a much less intensive maintenance phase, and so the sars cov 2 mythical beast recedes into baseline level population densities. It’s all the same dynamics as what we experience about life in our minds because our minds are just an emergent phenomenon of our bodies, and so by definition, our minds are patterned exactly on our bodies.
The objective truth is out there.
AI:
“Yes, the quantity of that specific stress-induced exosome generally reduces over time as a population adapts.Dynamics of Exosome Reduction During AdaptationDirect Stress Response: Stressors initially trigger high production of specialized exosomes via pathways like the heat shock or unfolded protein response to manage cellular damage and signal distress.Homeostatic Recovery: As genetic or phenotypic adaptation occurs, baseline cellular stress decreases, removing the primary driver for generating those stress-specific vesicles.Metabolic Efficiency: Sustaining high production of unique extracellular vesicles is energetically costly; successful adaptation favors a return to normal, optimized cellular communication states.If you’d like, I can explain more about how cellular stress pathways control exosome biogenesis or the difference between short-term acclimation and long-term genetic adaptation for this process.”
‘Illness’ as a detoxification process of some kind is of some interest to me.
Approximately once a month, twice if I’m unlucky, I have to endure 12 to 18 hours of horrendous, incapacitating sneezing – Hayfever from Hell – which then leaves me flat out with stunned exhaustion the next day.
After that, I’m as right as rain until the next bout.
Something is clearly being dealt with in a rather dramatic fashion.
I had forgotten about your sneezing fits, they’re frequent and intense. Mechanical respiratory detoxification. It’s good that your body is dedicated to long term maintenance and hopefully healing too. I also regard even a persistent dry cough as positive phenomenon even though it is not mechanically productive like a wet cough. It’s still positive because it makes us aware that we’ve got some underlying pulmonary fibrotic disease going on, and knowing is half the battle; we can gauge our condition by our cough frequency. Notice how most of the older talking heads on yootoob have a persistent, isolated dry coughs. Relatedly, our lungs are exposed to 5G and 4G along with everything else, so lung fibroblast upregulation is baked into the cake and is the foundation of the fibrotic state that mechanically irritates our lung nerves and makes them raw and hypersensitive.
Hopefully you can sense an upward trend though the middle-age aging process can muddy that sense of progress.
On a lighter note, every morning my late bird dog, Sir Sancho, would jump off the bed, give two small sneezes, pause dramatically, and then sneeze like a cannon blast. Then shake himself, wag his tail and off to the races.
That would fit the master and dog stereotype nicely. Nice memories.
Thank you very much for your time and insight.
Reante… I know I’m a latecomer to this group… but can you elaborate? Was Covid an intentional lab leak from US military? And it seemed like it didn’t accomplish everything intended?
Let me know if.my elaboration above leaves you wanting. As far as the accomplishing goes, according to how I’ve contextualized the plandemic as a whole vis a vis DA theory, I feel like I’ve been able to satisfactorily rationalize how it all played out as a(n intended) success on the Hand’s part. At any rate, it’s extremely difficult to tell if the Hand fails managerially on any given protocol because closed-door failures because Plan Bs (countermeasures) then take effect, and those countermeasures also serve the protocol and this patterning that detour from the outside will look just like a manifestation of complex dynamics. We just don’t have that granular understanding from the outside.
DA theory holds that we can know that the vaxx refusals were part of the protocol because the refuseniks were already predicted to become the vanguard of the next MAGAMAHA political establishment in transitional service of the final goal of the truly populist MAHA America First social nationalisms coming into power for Phase 2 of the DA, which is now at long last knocking on the door.
very interesting… can you define The Hand and DA
Hand is short for Hidden Hand, which is the theorized global non-public think tank that was established back in the 70s after the Limits to Growth book became universally read by the MICs of all countries. The Hand is the TT in Ray McGovern’s expanded MICIMATT acronym, which stands for Military-Industrial-Congressional-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think-Tank. Although Ray doesn’t see the supranational/global management system so his acronym was only intended for the US, hence the C for Congressional.
The Hand was assembled 50+ years ago in order to deal with the suprapolitical implementation of a civilizational-scale Collapse mitigation protocol I call the DA, which means Non-Public Degrowth Agenda. In the event that the civilization is not able to intensify its energy base beyond finite fossil fuels and into nuclear and/or particle physics power generation.
Whether or not the Reante’s Hand exists, the system itself organizes itself in amazing ways. The usual term is self-organizing, but it also might be called God-organized.
Any kind of ecosystem has a self-healing property. This is true for economies as well. If one business fails, other businesses will arise, especially if there is a way to sell a needed product, and materials are available at an affordable price.
The Maximum Power Principle of self-organizing systems assures that systems don’t collapse overly suddenly. If there are resources to be used, somehow, the system will organize to use them, if the effort isn’t excessive.
Economists talk about the Invisible Hand. This is related. I have a difficult time believing that an actual group of people is involved in guiding the economy. The system guides itself (or God helps it).
Governments are made up of actual people so it’s just a question of how each of us is able to pattern that governance. I’m here in large part to encourage myself and readers alike to pattern for themselves and each other coherent civilizational Collapse governance by a necessarily covert entity made up of actual people.
Analogous to Alan Watts’ famous and true observation of subtlety that “some things are more natural than than others” when confronted by an audience member with the idea that everything is natural because everything exists in the natural universe, I would likewise insist that some things are more self-organizing than others.
If that wasn’t the case, the word hierarchy wouldn’t exist. Nor would the word anarchy for that matter.
For example, when children legally have to be vaccinated, a mother taking that child in to be vaccinated is not, I’m sure you’ll agree, the best example we can find of self-organizing motherhood.
FREEDOM IS SLAVERY only when we cease to be able to distinguish between the two.
Reante… thank you for the explanation… very interesting…
Gail… thanks for the self organizing explanation… makes a lot of sense.
Reante… the things you talk about our very scary… and Covid was just a taste of it…. like you said, we must discuss and face it so we are prepared. Have you heard of Simon Micheaux? He did an interview recently with Commodity Culture talking about all of this. And he has suggestions as things we can do to combat all of this. My worry is that people are so easily manipulated. I don’t know if you have heard of Sheldon Solomon. He talks about our fear of death and that we will delude ourselves to avoid facing our own mortality. So we conform to societal rules as it alleviates the fear of death. What’s interesting during Covid was the magnitude of conformity among the Left/Liberal class even though they boast about being the independent thinkers, etc. It was more the Independents and those on the Right willing to stand up.
ks, it’s funny that you should think it scary. I usually get called an optimist for my DA theory because the theory holds that the planned social nationalisms are the politics that, down deep, everybody has always wanted. I get called an optimist because I argue that the Elites are approaching Collapse as constructively as possible. Disbelievers in the theory think it is idealistic even if in the larger context it is a fast collapse theory.
ks, I don’t know Micheaux well. Gail knows him much better. Recently someone posted Micheaux’s current thinking and I was surprised that he was such a conspiracy theorist and I criticized his theory though i don’t remember it now. We can’t combat the DA or any other theory of Elite machinations. We’re just along for the ride. All we can do is take care of our own business and mind our own business.
I haven’t heard of Sheldon Solomon. Sure, that herding dynamic you mentioned is strong. Regarding the plandemic, both sides were herded into their respective camps by design. Politics is a false dialectic and the plandemic clownshow was an opportunity to take that polarizing dynamic to new heights.
“I haven’t heard of Sheldon Solomon”
If you are going to read “worm at the core”, there’s also Ernest Becker’s ” The Denial of Death”.
“All we can do is take care of our own business and mind our own business.”
Like this man, be a true sovereign(skip 2:30-5:15, nothing happens)
https://substack.com/@antiparasitic/note/c-288426208?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7c6fx
The virus associated with Covid was closely related to the cold virus. Researchers were trying to splice a piece of the virus associated with AIDS onto it, IIRC. The original virus associated with Covid quickly mutated to much less virulence.
Covid wouldn’t have made much difference, apart from the response to the virus. The big underlying issue was severe financial problems in 2019, in many countries. Also, riots in the streets because of low pay for some workers, especially in Wuhan, China. Governments were happy to have an excuse to keep people home. This was a big reason why shut-ins were adopted.
The virus provided an excuse for keeping everyone home, postponing payment on a lot of debt, and adding a whole lot more government debt. It indirectly kicked financial problems of US and quite few other countries down the road for a while.
“Event 101,” which took place before the virus event, taught reporters around the world what to report. Then we had Fauci, and his proclamations.
Right on Fitz. I have a neighbor up the road, a redneck jew, used to be a developer out here, he’s from here, who’s into this exact stuff. Ditched his license and registration, got that same court acknowledgement. He’s notorious around here, everyone avoids him except for me cuz they think he’s nuts. We have long conversations but I can’t really get him to buy into the peak oil stuff but he knows what my predictions are so hopefully that helps. Like everyone else, even he’s kinda gone to sleep on the sense of urgency everyone around here had, since Trump got elected. Not that he voted of course.
There’s also guys out here who have never had a license in their life. They get pulled over they might get a pass from the deputy because they’re known to be one of them deep country boys or if it’s the police in town they just deal with the minor inconvenience of the fine and getting their truck out of the impound lot.
Thanks Gail I’m probably wrong with that part of my framework and sars cov 2 is a ‘cold’-related signaling exosome (for water-soluble toxin detoxes) and not a ‘flu’-related one (for fat-soluble toxin detoxes as I said earlier, because the claimed genetics would need to be consistent with ‘cold viruses’.’Cold’ exosomes also upregulate MMP enzymes that break down excess fibrin and ‘covid’ very highly upregulates fibrin.
this is all very interesting… thank you.
JOHN O’LOONEY: “Is this a modern-day Invasion Of The Bodysnatchers?”
Outspoken funeral director John O’Looney (UK) exposes the horrors he’s witnessed since 2020 and explains the excess deaths that have occurred since 2021 and joins the dots between what he’s seen and the organ harvesting industry.
It sounds like a rare case in which institutions like UNC should fire individuals who have tenure. I know though … it doesn’t work like that for ‘high status’ jobs. Academics who agree to retire early are probably entitled to a pension for their rest of their days.
FWIW the Thatcher government in the UK abolished tenure in 1988. But they did that to reduce academic freedom of speech, not really to make it easier to fire people (although it did that too).
This here tenure sure seems like a really comfortable duvet of immunity for risky research, statistical legerdemain (I’m calling you out, Hand) and blatant fraud. Well, as any bovine udder massage tech knows, when the whore moos, you must milk it.
In the very near future, governments are going to find it increasingly difficult to pay pensions. I expect that this will be a major feature of the downfall of governments. The new governments will need to provide much less benefits to citizens, including retired professors.
Funny thing. For about 30 seconds I didn’t recognize Ralph Barics name when I read it in your post. My brain knew I knew the name but had forgotten who he was. Five years ago I would have called that impossible . All that angst and debate and analysis seems like a faded dream now.
I’ve had similar experiences: ‘Oh yes, I know that name…’
Seems like centuries ago sometimes, such intense years
There is a claim that part of the reason that the US backed out of bombing Iran, besides running short of missiles, is that China threatened to join into the war if the US continued. We know that Russia is already supplying munitions to Iran. So the situation would be a combined Iran, Russia, China World War III against the US, Europe including Ukraine and Israel. The US group could not possibly win.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtWwX_fg8Rs
Trump INSTANTLY CAVES as China Makes DEADLY ULTIMATUM!!!
MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump caving after China’s leader Xi Jinping issued a deadly ultimatum Trump.
“NBC dutifully reports American commanders are deliberately letting Iranian ballistic missiles and drones through because the interceptor magazines are empty. NBC they are picking and choosing which bases, which radar sites, which logistics nodes get to take the hit so the last remaining PAC-3s and THAAD rounds can be hoarded for the really important targets. The cope is off the charts, the claim presupposes that it’s merely a stockpile issue, but Iran showed earlier in the war it can hit US bases with impunity regardless of stockpiles. “?
https://x.com/IslanderWORLD/status/2081577188554338544?s=20
The last paragraph of this post is good, too.
This is the same war the architects launched while already knowing the munition and air-defence stocks were thin. Production lines cannot keep pace. Replenishment timelines stretch into years. Yet the line remains that everything is proceeding according to plan, that Iran is being systematically degraded on schedule, that the war is going so well. Reality keeps a different scorecard.
I enjoy this guy’s show as he pursues the ever increasing spotlight on Trump’s radical flaws. It is however quite emotional and sensationalist content. Often it is quite based because Trump’s conduct is so atrocious it allows the emotionalism and sensationalism to have a basis.
Certainly China has been shaping up to be the super power for sometime.
Once again. If China is such a kind and gentle benefactor to Pakistan why won’t they renegotiate the lousy 3b note? I suppose it’s possible China threatened to enter the war although it’s contrary to their style. Regardless it’s convenient to this guy’s enjoyable content. A relentless and emotional attack on Trump. Moron bashing is absaloutly fun. Now with the obvious capitulation to China that’s coming with the uniparty makeover.
China is not going to exit the fortress they have meticulously created in the South China sea for a fight on a whim.
Donald Trump is of immense use to the Planners, as almost any policy could be tried under the cover of it having originated in the fevered brain of the ‘mad emperor’, Tiberius-Trump. Hints f dementia are the icing on the cake.
One has to applaud their choice of puppet. And their foresight: he has been fostered by them for decades. Of course, they always have a stable of potential candidates at any one time. All bases are covered.
He serves as the perfect distraction from the dreadful reality which must be kept from the masses: desperate last-throws in the era of Peak Almost Everything.
This sounds like a very tall tale, but fits the latest narrative to a tee.
No reporting anywhere that I’ve seen outside the corporate prison and like the Russian weapons tale, it will almost certainly chase back to corporate media citing each other and an unnamed source, to get the ball rolling, then revisit a few times and it’s “fact”. Don’t even need to put an “expert” on the screen.
Works every time and they do it all the time.
It’s widely noted
https://substack.com/@bettbeat/note/c-301378961?utm_source=notes-share-action&r=7c6fx
A comment from the link:
With zero evidence, the usual suspects across independent media (e.g., Mearsheimer but many others as well) keep repeating that China and Russia are making Iran’s weapons deadlier. They’re feeding Iran radar data, guiding its missiles, etc.
Never a source. Never a document. Never a named official. At some point you have to ask whether these people are just lazy, or whether this is a sophisticated cointelpro-style operation, the kind of narrative laundering the CIA and Mossad have run before.
If I remember, I’ll keep a link to the origin next time I notice one of these truth by repetition games.
Notice no one is talking about mines anymore, which is really weird, seeing as they have now laid them and at least 2 or 3 ships have hit them(because that’s what happens when there are mines in the water). with one going boom.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246547/Oil-tanker-explodes-in-Hormuz-Strait-after-hitting-mine
I’ll guess China will be blamed, if as Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia says, Iran has upgraded its air defence(4 days ago).
It’s a deterrent that can be viewed from space, if the below is correct.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/satellite-imagery-shows-big-fire-at-aramco-s-abqaiq-after-dr
All they had to do was lift the decade long illegal siege of Sanaa Airport, instead they tried to bribe AnsarAllah(that’s like telling the most devout Catholic ever, to wear a condom). Oh well, learn the hard way(it’s going to get harder, because they don’t learn and then the tribes will dispose of MBS).
From the link:
Saudi Aramco has reportedly suspended all operations and triggered emergency flaring across multiple production sites.
Abqaiq was previously targeted in the September 2019 drone and missile attack, which briefly knocked out roughly 5 percent of global oil supply and sent Brent crude prices surging 20 percent.
With Yanbu port infrastructure on the western end of the East-West Pipeline being reportedly damaged alongside Abqaiq in the east, Saudi Arabia’s Hormuz-bypass export route has now been effectively severed.
Also,
Since Yemen imposed its naval blockade, the source noted, no Saudi oil tanker has crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait in either direction, reaffirming that the ban on Saudi vessels remains in force and that the Yemeni Armed Forces will continue to deny passage to any Saudi vessel.
Yeah ZH had a picture of the planetary scale pinprick too. Sometimes the pin pricks just the wrong spot.
Actually I believe the ZH satellite photographed pinprick was the Jaxan hit. Still, they could be for show more than anything too critical if that’s what the Hand wants, haunted house hall of mirrors style.
I haven’t been following, as I thought it would be a warning with minor damage, so didn’t look past the headlines. If it’s as bad as it looks, it’s more a claxon than a whisper to the Saudis. Put in position by Iran and owned by Yemen in two missile attacks.
Interestingly, Faisal bin Farhan(Saudi FM) was included in yesterday’s call between Abbas Araghchi(Iranian FM) and Badr al-Busaidi(Omani FM).
I think they turned out to be fuel storage facility and am associated facility. So more for a satellite show than critical. That’s interesting about the three-way.
I read that extended conversation by the way, on substack. On balance I obviously preferred Lily’s framework, but I’d like to see it taken supranational. 💪 Excellent argumentation on both sides. Two very smart people working hard and getting inside to look at the guts.
I’m with you on Lily’s framing, but Nel’s probably going to be closer to the reality we end up with(good discussion either way). One thing I have noticed, it’s the ladies that seem to be pushing the questions in the needed direction nowadays(at least from the articles I’ve seen). I’ve found this with my daughter and her friends as well. They seem more aware of the changes we are facing and some even seem relieved that there are older people, that will talk about these issues without the sugar coating. I wonder if that’s a genuine shift, or just my experience(even my mum’s pensioner group has a couple of ladies that like chatting with me about these things when I see them).
That said, I talked to a man in his 70s yesterday and he surprised me. We were in the queue in the supermarket and I pointed out that we were having to queue as they are closing more tills, so people were forced to use the self service, that comes with a facial recognition camera. He then talked to me about all the other changes and where it will lead, without a single leading word from me. As above, he seemed happy to talk about visible reality without being dismissed.
Great observation of yours, Fitz: Lily’s fundamentalist framework is more true to reality than Nel’s but Nel’s integrationist outcome is the future. That’s the future proof that they’re both stuck in the old ways of the the theater. The IRGC chases MPP, bases all of its decision-making on civilizational peak oil collapse just like all other nation-scale political elites do, and therefore acts in accordance with the representative Non-Public Degrowth Agenda of the civilization because that’s reason-based, objectivist soft determinism. Because TINA in a nuclear civilization.
I’m afraid we have to consider if any of our favorite pundits in the mega media are free from influences of various types. Mearsheimer often states the extreme precision demonstrated in Irans weapons is a function of Chinese and Russian satellites but Iran/ Houthi demonstrated extreme precision in the earliest aramco attack long before the war. The targeting mechanisms Iran is using for both Shahed and ballistic missiles remain s matter of debate. I’m sure much effort has been spent identifying them. Obviously they are very different mechanisms.
The war may be unearthing measure countermeasure escalations unknown to us. If you have the ability to effect satellite com you wouldn’t disclose that. Obviously since ICBMs must use a targeting system of some sort exactly how that occurs is not going to be openly discussed.
The USA has many many more satellites up than any other nation. Some have felt this is because Russia believes those satellites will not function long in a real war. Others have felt it’s because Russia does not have the cash.
The likelihood that the real way long range weapons are directed to the target will be discussed in media is extremely unlikely in my opinion. Anything presented will be a carefully planned deception.
Nothing in the public sphere should be taken at face value.
Personally, I don’t follow any of the pundits anymore, the ‘ex-CIA/ military intelligence/NASA/independent journalist/Greek grifters’ etc, crowd.
I only give credence to direct reports of personal experience like those of our own ‘drb’.
Attacks on the largest oil processing site in the world:
Zerohedge is reporting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/saudi-aramco-targeted-including-sprawling-abqaiq-facility-tehran-aligned-militants
Saudi Aramco Targeted, Including Sprawling Abqaiq Facility, As Tehran-Aligned Militants Test US-Iran ‘Pause’
Meanwhile there are emerging Monday reports that Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq oil processing facility in the kingdom’s eastern province is on fire after probable drone and/or missile strikes by the Houthis, or from Iran-aligned Iraqi militias.
Newsquawk reports based on emerging Iranian state media that “Hours ago, the huge Abqaiq oil facility in eastern Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s most important oil processing centers, was set on fire in drone and missile attacks, reports Tasnim citing sources and images.” Below are the distant images posted by Tasnim on Telegram: . . .
International reports commonly estimate that the sprawling Abqaiq facility – as the largest crude oil stabilization and processing facility in the world – has a maximum processing capacity of 7 million barrels per day (bpd) and typically operates at around 4.9 million bpd.
Jizan and Yanbu strikes were pin pricks. Deterrence creation. Hopefully this is the same.
How can we not be short on oil supplies? The price falling 10$ . Very strange
It takes oil to make the economy work. It takes oil to make jobs that pay well. With less oil there are fewer jobs that pay well; there is more wage disparity. Young people have a harder time getting reasonable paying jobs after they get degrees from universities. This happens around the world. With fewer jobs that pay well, fewer people can afford vehicles to drive. “Demand” for oil falls.
I agree we must be on the cusp of a Great Recession
Gail… what you are explaining makes so much sense. So if we see spikes, it will be very short term but the trend is to a new equilibrium price point that satisfies both producer and consumer? Is that right? A lot of the oil experts and investors are scratching their heads and saying that oil prices should be much higher… and they say it’s because the US SPR’s and China not buying and drawing from own reserves. China is not buying because price is too high as they enjoyed lower than market prices from Iran (being embargoed, etc). So a global economic shift is coming (depression) to shrink the economy to get to a new price point equilibrium for oil?
Consumers cannot really afford higher prices, so such an equilibrium price doesn’t really exist, I am afraid.
Governments try to add more and more debt, at lower and lower interest rates, to try to hide the problem of high prices. But then the problems are transferred to the governments. We are now at the stage where governments are getting hit with very high interest payments on the huge amount of debt they have taken on.
Many countries are near recession right now. They are using war to hide the problems their economies have.
I get what you are saying… I think I understand what you mean…there will be a collapse. But then we’ve taken out all the cheap oil and the global economy needed to take the oil out will be gone.
I don’t follow this Tom but he gives an interesting perspective here.
Classic land based continental wars can no longer be fought, because countries no longer have the logistical base to do so.
China isn’t doing so swooft either. Even a small cut can kill a hemophiliac,
I enjoyed looking at this. I agree that the US economy and China’s economy are both very weak. I think that the problem has existed for a long time–since 2008 for the US, China has had problems since about 2014 or 2015. The lack of high price spikes indicates how low demand really is.
Trump’s high tariffs were an attempt to throw the recessionary forces outside the US. When the high tariffs were overthrown, the Iran war was another way of trying to hide the weakness of the US economy.
China and Japan have both gone through the effects of a huge drop in property values. I can imagine will be happening in the US also.
Thanks, this is very interesting in terms of the coming recessionary-deflationary wave of which various profiles ( fast, slow temporary recovery on lower level, etc. ) are presented in that Hagens video.
Now, about the expected huge drop in property values globally, why are you pointing specifically for this valve as it were? Is it because of the past trends in Japan and China solely, in combo w. demographics trends and low incomes? Yet, why it can’t be supported for a while longer by synthetic money-debt and other asset classes to be sacrificed instead in priority mode?
As we discussed previously, the legacy-growing world economy could arrange for various outlets where to park and multiply ” value ” be it stocks, real estate, intellectual property, various commodities, lately bitcoins etc.
So, either by design or by preference some, many of these formerly used escape valves must be shut down mercilessly in the near future.
I’m simply not up to the task pick and choose the ~correct one/s in order. Perhaps we need more clues how the world economy sloshes into the future – say if we get true comeback of regionalization in trade then we could charter some more likely scenarios, but so far the globo-economy is still in power.
With all mark to market requirements gone forever and all liquidity ratio requirements gone forever I see no reason for a bank to voluntarily sell a property at a loss.
Perhaps more important is the loan status of a property remain intact even if non performing. The bank must never take legal possession of the property. The loan must be shuffled instead. Hot potato revisited.
The only way home prices come down is if individuals hold the equity not the banks. Right now we see market lock instead. Sellers can not get what they want so they make it a rental instead. Rent comes down in price.
This reflects the two sides of the market. Individuals holding most or all of the equity or a loan holding most or all of the equity. If the banks can’t even take possession nor take a loss and individuals have strong belief in property value increasing forever the market locks.
What breaks the lock? Radical reduction in rent and high rental vacancies. Bank keeping loans on the books as a existential matter and vacant buildings makes this difficult.
More or less only one thing can kill a bank. Liabilities. Deposits.
Do assets hit the market then for what they will bring? Of course not! Other banks that have not faced depositor vigilantism bring the LOANS onto their books involuntarily.
Only the Feds sell houses into the market for what they will bring on a straight non performing fed loan. They will take possession . And to some extent new home builders as they must flip.
It’s always worked. 2008. COVID . The bubble always reinflates. Banks have to hold. Individuals will hold until either belief breaks or they are forced to tap equity. Many until death. That may be what bring prices down. Children liquidating inherited homes. Inheritance mark to market.In the meantime rodents will have a nice abode in the vacant properties and data centers.
Yes, that echoes my impression that property valuation will be targeted in latter to latest stages, not *now.
I know Gail did not perhaps mean it as necessarily sequential very next in the line, but more as general longterm outlook. Hopefully, will post more details on the whole meaning of it.
__
* unless we get the edgy scenario US goes into wild correction #1 and more severely than RoW – I doubt we are there yet – perhaps in 5-15yrs not sooner.. ( basically scenario ala Soviet capitulation in the late 1980s vs glob-competition ) now shaping chiefly vs CHN+ ..
Gail… didn’t you also mention that coal peaked in China… Wasn’t that the basis of their growth?
Growth in coal production in China slowed down in 2012, and came to a local peak in 2013.
Coal production in China is again higher in 2022 to 2025 (but close to a plateau at a higher level).
Prices of coal have moved around, as if limits are being hit. Prices were under $55 per short ton in the 2000 to 2006 timeframe, but then they moved higher. The coal price went up to $127 in 2011, but it dropped back to a lower level as production leveled out and slightly fell. In fact, coal was back under $55 in 2019 and 2020. (There were problems with riots in China in 2019. COVID shut-ins in China helped hide these riots.)
The price of coal jumped up to $177 per short ton in 2022, which was when China’s production jumped higher. But Europe and other countries could not import coal at such a high prices. By 2025 price for South China’s coal is given as $88 per short ton, which is about half of the 2022 peak price. I suspect that coal production is no longer profitable in China at $88 per short ton. This is part of the reason why China is now having so much difficulty. It is hitting peak coal again, as it did in 2012-2013.
Very interesting about peak coal, uprisings in China and Covid. You have helped me put this puzzle together in my mind.
Good video but I tapped out at 22mins after he finished introducing his final, favored scenario which I generally agree with but I think he should also factor-in secondary (second-order) demand destruction in China resulting from export and domestic domestic demand destruction from high fuel prices because of Hormooz. So it’s both things (the other being pre-existing Chinese recession) and not just the one. Plus, thirdly, China can’t actually afford oil in the 70s and 80s at full volume while maintaining demand or it wouldn’t have been surviving on the long term backdoor energy bailouts in the first place.
That’s the complete picture.
Nope the complete picture for CHN in fact also incl. 120GW by 2030-1 in domestic NPP fleet, and mass-adoption of various gen-revisions of solid state batts by then ( automotive/ transport , e-storage ). Apart from bullet trains deleting large part of “frivolous” inbound flying, maturing video-conference good enough generation etc.
This would surely work on the needle graphing their d/d – y/y oil consumption at least in the sense of affecting their scale-profile of acute problems vs. the W-realm or RoW comparative pain in general.
Yes and no. That does help complete the picture in the longer timeframe, thank you, but it is not relevant to the shorter Hormooz timeframe on which this video and conversation is focused, as guy on the video specifically addressed in one of his rejected theories.
Looking like possibly an effective deterent to boot. The best kind. Pretending the communication is for someone else.
However, Saudies claim on the event multiple successful drone interceptions and no damage to infrastructure. The Iraq official govs distanced from that rebel group attack sponsored by Iran using their territory not under control.
Saudi has most certainly upped their game. Can they actually defend their infrastructure against the opponents if the opponents are serious? One way to find out.
I imagine people in the region understand oil infrastructure. Where a facility is hit can be a demonstration of capability or a something that really hurts.
In Europe, the spineless cowards of the EU and UK are participating with enthusiasm in the constant attacks on Russia, using their Ukrainian proxy, but still without any payback that we know of.
Not much of a glass house. In fact, hardly anyone even knows that there is a war on.
“I translated a video for you that is being shown for the first time, featuring a call between Lindsey Graham and Jake Sullivan, in which he explains that the goal of the war with Iran was to topple several Iranian cities and then drag the Arab countries into the war so that no one could recover afterward.
There is also a call between Graham and Netanyahu, in which the latter refuses to drag America into the war with Hezbollah out of fear that the party would enter the war in full force, and this shows the extent of Israel’s fear of things spiraling out of control despite Israel’s pretense that it wants all-out war.”?
https://x.com/political0s/status/2081478548183814578?s=20
Somehow, this video (or parts of it) were originally in Arabic. But the people are speaking English. Lindsey Graham remarks that Trump “Loves to blow things up.”
This is a zero hedge post on a similar topic.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/i-almost-cried-documentary-video-trove-shows-lindsey-grahams-joy-start-iran-war
This is the WSJ article on the subject:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/lindsey-graham-death-israel-4f1449ec
Lindsey Graham’s Death Leaves Israel With a Bigger Problem in America
The Republican stalwart’s burial comes as polls show Israel’s standing is declining among both Democrats and Republicans
Graham’s death comes at a moment when Israel has fallen out with many Democrats and increasingly with Republicans following the Gaza war, which has seen tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and large parts of the enclave left in ruins. This has left some in Israel worrying whether the country is running out of effective ways to influence Trump.
The Trump administration and the Israeli prime minister’s office say they are working closely together, including on military-related matters, and deny there is a major rift between the two allies, although both Trump and Netanyahu have admitted to disagreements.
I would be inclined to dismiss this supposed insider info, as it reinforces the false narrative that Israel is the ‘tail wagging the dog’ of the US.
We know well that this is not the true relationship between the two states.
The wild Berry attacks in Russia might indicate that more critical targets are starting to have star link countermeasures applied. Maybe.
What do you mean by that?
Sparkler ordinance, health and safety signs in the war space and mum saying no
The long range Ukrainian drones are controlled via starlink. They do not function without it. Ritter has said Russia has a EW solution that blocks starlink in a localized area and is implementing it. More critical targets would be protected first like Moscow and refineries. Hypothetically this would leave Ukraine with long range drone capabilities but only for unprotected targets. This also might explain why the attack on the shadow tanker fleet now. If Ritters statement is true we should see cessation of long range Ukrainian on prominent and critical targets and a increase in less prominent and less critical targets. Exactly like the attack on the “Russian Amazon” Wild berries a less critical target. Or whatever is left unprotected like the azov sea shadow fleet far from Moscow as EW protection extends not deemed worthy of UAV ordnance expenditure before but suddenly targeted.
If starlink can’t control the heavy winged UAV it’s back to fiber optic spider webs to direct light UAV and relatively short range everywhere.The Ukrainians have implemented some very innovative EW themselves that is knocking down a lot of the Russian Shahed clones as they approach some of them which are significant upgrades in range and speed. If the gulf nations are not buying this Ukrainian tech and being loyal to non EW missile intercepts they are stupider than fools. I don’t think they are. . Nothing is truly autonomous AI now not even close and that means none of UAV operates without human control. Some basic vision engine tech is being billed as ai. If and when true ai for weapons targeting emerges that kind of valuable computing power won’t be placed on a suicide drone not that a UAV could carry it anyway. It’ would have to be remote and that means satellite com. Historically both Ukraine and Russia have demonstrated significant electronic tech savvy. I’m surprised solutions have taken this long. Measure countermeasure. The days when a drone operator in nice air conditioning directs a strike on the other side of the planet may be numbered.
What I describe is speculation we will see.
Thanks very much.
Stop Starlink in an area, and Ukraine can’t blow things up in that area. A fairly easy problem to fix.
Seems like it doesn’t it? Iran stopped starlink. Hmmmmmm.
The Starlink story might have been the origin for all the other tales and the “alternative” media were promoting Russian involvement like their whole careers depended on it.
Some basic vision engine tech is being billed as ai.
What does that mean? are you saying that vision engine tech is still superior to AI when it comes to image reconnaissance? and what is the basic (core) software difference between the two? I am actually somewhat familiar with vision software as a relative (an engineer) had to do it for his robotics job. I have always assumed it was based on NN.
Not enough ammunition? Top post on WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-pauses-iran-strikes-as-officials-weigh-dwindling-air-defense-stocks-c7d7ebb0
Trump Pauses Iran Strikes as Officials Weigh Dwindling Munitions
The U.S. held off on a major military campaign that could have lasted two weeks, officials said.
President Trump has put off a major escalation of his military campaign against Iran amid efforts to revive diplomacy to open the Strait of Hormuz and a debate over the impact of declining munitions stocks, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter.
The U.S. military had been poised Friday to launch an intensive series of strikes against Iran, which could have lasted up to two weeks, the officials said.
But the operation was delayed so diplomacy could proceed and as officials discussed the effect a major attack could have on the U.S.’s shrinking stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors. The president could still order an attack, officials said, noting that the situation remains fluid.
The White House has been informed of the declining inventories of air defense interceptors by Gen. Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials added. The issue is a concern for Caine, who believes that the low inventories wouldn’t preclude a resumption of major combat operations against Iran, but would add to the risk, the officials added.
Brent on these 2-3day ” news ” lost almost 12% ..
Oil prices don’t stay high!
So, the lull of past two days in terms of halted US-Iran hostilities has been explained now by CBS as supposedly Omanis are trying to negotiate some deal ( towards opening up Hormuz ) in the conflict. Again, this could drag on/off for months and years..
As most of the int relation folks maintain Hormuz is Iran’s key cherished card – so that’s unlikely.. anyway.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-strait-hormuz-middle-east/#post-update-c630461e
As long as spending on the conflict helps the GDP of countries participating, there will be interest in keeping the conflict going, I am afraid. Participation in the conflict also helps the job market. The unemployment rate would be higher without it.
But also in their delusionary thinking, don’t they want to control the oil/ and other resources. Isn’t that the reason why Hitler invaded the Soviet Union. He wanted the oil fields of Baku? I thought wars were a fight for resources. And humans like to delude themselves… and at the top, probably even much more so?
Now updated link after the weekend:
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/us-iran-war-trump-strait-of-hormuz-talks-oman/
Interestingly, Zelensky (UKR) attacked Iran’s cargo ship, presumably trading arms with RU. And then immediately declared he doesn’t want opening any such new front line in the war? hah
In the same update, UKR now claims intercepting ( and decoding?! ) RU sat data down-link, and it’s supposedly full of confirmed pictures for targeting strikes ( past and present ) used by Iran against US & allies in the Gulf.
This set of action seems beyond bizarre and somebody is evidently puppeteering these guys.
Brent Johnson’s explanation of why US stock markets will not fall- for now. Very interesting.
As I have said in the past, our situation is analogous to a candle burning at both ends.
One end burning is the gradual depletion of easily accessible energy, fresh water, fertile farmland, falling ore grades. This is a physical reality.
The other end is the artificial, man-made financial chicanery. Fractional reserve banking, creation of fiat currency now with “conversion” into disguised tokens, derivatives, special purpose acquisition vehicles, private equity, FASBY-56 off-balance-sheet government accounting, PONZI schemes like SS, traders pump and dump, etc.
In this video Brent Johnson states that passive investing avoids risk analysis. Passive investing means stocks are bid up simply because their net asset value (NAV) is going up, because people automatically “have to” and unwittingly invest their paychecks and IRA/401k into passive index funds, driving up the NAVs in a positive feedback loop.
This works until people start losing their jobs or run into financial hardship and have to tap into their 401K funds, and the passive indices can then unwind. Plus the Milkshake Theory- of the US markets sucking up foreign investment.
These passive inflows are exactly why the MAG 7 stocks are valued at what they are today. It’s just a relentless bid. And it’s mainly in 7 stocks that carry the entire index. Which is why stock markets don’t represent economic fundamentals and they don’t really give you a clear view on the health of an economy.
There will come a day when there is a relentless market outflow. And yes it’s all about the labor market. And yes it’s all about the workers being able to collectively service their debts. Not the government debt that everyone focuses on.
Mike Green has done some excellent work on this subject.
Not a rigged market you just got to understand why prices do what they do. Everyone just piles in on top of the passive bid. When the passive bid finally does break the bottom will be much much much lower than anybody can imagine.
That how a 7% unemployment rate will exposed to a 25% unemployment rate in a hurry. Notice we are currently at 4.2 % unemployment.
Mike Green thinks the net outflows start at around 6.2% unemployment. My number is 7% and then it’s like a snowball downhill. With a horrific feedback loop. More job loses equals more market downside which equals more job loses.
Couple what i just said above with AI putting a large number of white collar workers on the unemployment line.
White collar workers contribute a lot more to their 401k’s than blue collar workers do. They also have a lot more debt to service than blue collar workers.
AI success is literally going to sow the seeds of it’s own demise when these white collar worker jobs start going away in large numbers. And the passive bid for stocks reverses.
So yes stocks will go higher until the labor market breaks and then they won’t. Then everyone will be looking around and talking about the FED and rate cuts and QE that don’t matter.
That sounds like a plausible scenario.
I think that some of the white collar jobs have already gone away, but are hidden in the numbers. Some IT workers were contract workers. They don’t get unemployment insurance. They are easy to consider as “not in the job market.”
Thanks.
What’s rusting your dog? ..sorry I’m just happy.. I finished my slavery grind
I think the unemployed numbers are higher than what is being reported. Also the quality of jobs is much lower. Low quality jobs do not contribute to a 401 k . Brent is a Pollyanna for the future. The sky is the limit kinda guy. What he doesn’t mention it’s that it was high oil prices that caused the crash in 2008. Also all the countries were In less debt back then. Fracking was just getting going. Etc …
Th situation is worse now.
Uruguay 99% of electric from renewables. 50% hydro, 50% wind.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qDVPFAuBSXw
Hydro is usually very seasonal. Wind also . Unlike wind, hydro comes through turbines, so it can be made to have the proper cycles. I suppose 100% might hold for a little bit of time, a few days a year, especially if balancing power is available from elsewhere. But over the long term, it would be pretty much impossible to do, IMO.
‘Renewable’ has become a word so much abused that, like ‘God’, it is best not used.
Dams and their turbines are not, in any reasonable sense of the word, renewable. Wind turbines are not renewable.
Hydro and wind can be throttled down. Throttling down hydro leaves the water for later. Throttling wind by angling the blades simply lowers the output. Throttling down to 70% at peak time and up during lower times should allow base load most/all of the year. Yes, the system needs to be over build from gauging by peak output.
The storage for hydro is definitely limited. If there is too much, it just has to spill over the top, and its benefit is permanently lost.
I remember reading about combined wind and hydro supplies exceeding total required electricity supplies in Washington State. The owners of wind and hydro were different. There was an argument as to which one needed to be cut back, since it would affect the profit of the two differently.
I wouldn’t count on “Throttling wind by angling the blades simply lowers the output. Throttling down to 70% at peak time and up during lower times should allow base load most/all of the year.” Europe has discovered that wind can be very low for months at a time, even in ocean settings. Most places, hydro is pretty well built out today. You really need a lot of electrical storage to make this arrangement work, I am afraid, and that gets to be expensive.
That’s neat, but electricity is only 20% of energy consumption and doesn’t replace the plastic or steel raw materials we’ve become so dependent on. I assume you know that, just mentioning in case not.
Steel production in Uruguay is centered around Gerdau (known locally as Gerdau Laisa), which produces about 70,000 tons of long steel per year. The industry relies entirely on recycling local ferrous scrap and sustainable water loops.
Not all of the world is an industrial power house like Russia, China, US.
Plastic and plastic waste management in Uruguay involves heavy importation of finished plastic goods, low national recycling rates, and strict new rules to cut down on single-use items.
Heavy tractors and specialized harvesters are imported from global manufacturing hubs (such as the US, Brazil, India, and Europe) and supported by local dealers offering parts and technical servicing.
143 degrees in Dubai!
Oh man, that’s awful. They do have extreme summer heat however this active El Nino is making it worse with higher humidity and less wind to help alleviate the heat. The humidity must be so unbearable as they are coastal. I wonder what the Wet Bulb temps are at… I believe above 32 C (90 F) is limit for outdoor activities.
The video does say the wet bulb temperature is already above human survivable even in the shade with full hydration.
The Persian/Arabian Gulf are premier hotspots for extreme wet-bulb temperatures…
I think you are both being led astray. Dubai has been between 40°-45° every day this month and humidity is not a problem at this time of year. That comes just as the temperature starts to drop(late August to mid September).
You will know when these countries go over 50° as that’s the point that all outside work becomes illegal*. You’ll either hear moaning because nothing is getting done, or a revolt of the workers(they drop like flies, just before you hit 50°).
* I don’t know the law in all, but they are nearly always the same on these kind of things, so no more than a couple of degrees difference, if any.
A very dull place full of greedy, ghastly, shallow, people. May it ignite!
here here
Sounds like Hell on Earth.
And at these temperatures I am sure it feels like it too!
Reminds me of that old Arab proverb that translates into English as:
When Allah made Hell, he did not find it bad enough, so he made Mesopotamia—and added flies.
The Persian/Afghan variant is:
‘Why did Allah make India, when he already had Hell?’
Dubai is in the UAE. It is located right on the Persian Gulf. A person would think having a body of water nearby would cool it off.
The body of warm water near by raises the humidity making human sweating less effective.
yeah and its at lower sea level… cooler if higher elevations…
Good God!
AI has confirmed something we probably already suspected: when FORBES, Harvard Business School and other institutions with authority on business boast of innovation and experimentation in the American economy, they are referring to management. American managers innovate in the way they manage businesses. The freedom these business managers have allows them to experiment with different business models. The freedom business managers have to experiment with different ways of organizing labor makes the American economy dynamic.
Innovative downsizing. That’s been management for decades. More cutting more compensation.
Business people know, in their hearts, that they are hollow, dead, creatures, poisoned by self-seeking, so they love to appropriate terms such as ‘dynamism’, ‘passion’, ‘organic’ etc, from the world of real Life: pitiful!
Writing for Forbes and the Harvard Business School needs to please the management types that read those periodicals.
It is like academic articles. They are written so that they will match the standard narrative being handed out. “Renewable will save us,” and “Climate change is our biggest problem. We can fix it if we just . . .”
That’s also why that Heinberg’s article linked .pdf source was so relevant even for today’s debate. As back ( -40yrs ) then NASA and other top govs org were starting to peddle this Carbon forcing route in forte.. inside key govs and academia circles.
Some even claim it was also used as ( one of ) wedge during the US – USSR negotiations of the late 1980s.. apart from the known arms issue and sphere of influence tug of war..
We just need to be careful to differentiate between political Elitism and existential human concern for maintaining a livable planet. The two held concerns are not mutually exclusive to the Elites though the predicament lies in the fact that the two concerns are potentially mutually exclusive of each other because of the soft-determinism in the necessity of civilizational MPP.
Even to civilizational Elites there are pros and cons to civilization.
Yes, my last – speculative-observative addendum was along the lines: hey lets do it for mankind survival and drop immediately this cold-war nonsense, we are ahead 15yrs of you in terms of “renewables” we can share the tech if you sign on this dotted line here ..
Perhaps good opportunity to revisit Nate Hagens take on Carbon pulses of the ( natural pre human-iod ) past and comparison for today.. Short video w. graphs inside:
https://natehagens.substack.com/p/the-many-shapes-of-the-carbon-pulse
ai: Your assessment aligns with emerging economic evidence: in wealthy nations, educational attainment functions increasingly as a form of consumption and a signal of status rather than a primary driver of productivity or wealth creation. While a statistical correlation between education spending and GDP exists in OECD countries, research suggests this relationship is often reverse causality—wealthy societies can afford to consume more education, rather than education being the root cause of their wealth.
On-the-Job Reality: Data confirms that the bulk of productivity differences between rich and poor nations (and between high and low earners within rich nations) stems from on-the-job learning and institutional factors, not formal schooling. Since wealthy countries have historically had superior workplaces, technology, and management practices, their workers acquire more human capital at work, making the concurrent high levels of schooling a coincidental, rather than causal, factor.
AI concludes the quality of on-the-job training and what it calls “superior workplaces” is what drives productivity differences between poor countries and wealthy countries.
AI: The high educational status often associated with Tesla’s white-collar workforce (and its customer base) functions more as a signal of wealth and a consumer demographic trait than a causal factor in manufacturing output.
Replicability: If educational attainment were the key, other U.S. automakers with similarly educated workforces would match Tesla’s productivity. They do not, indicating that organizational structure and technology deployment are the true differentiators.
Real Drivers of Tesla’s Productivity
Tesla’s high productivity per worker compared to legacy automakers is attributed to factors unrelated to the average worker’s formal education level:
Automation and AI: Tesla utilizes some of the most advanced robotics and AI-driven manufacturing processes in the world (e.g., the “Giga Press”). This reduces the reliance on manual labor skill for routine tasks, shifting the productivity burden to capital equipment and software engineering rather than the general workforce’s educational attainment.
Vertical Integration: By producing components (like batteries and seats) in-house, Tesla reduces supply chain friction and increases control over production speed, a structural advantage unrelated to worker degrees.
On-the-Job Learning: Tesla invests heavily in internal training programs, such as the 16-week “Tesla Start” program for manufacturing roles and specialized battery curricula. This confirms that the critical skills driving productivity are acquired inside the factory, not in universities.
The mention of organization goes back to the general claim of managers driving innovation and productivity . If managers organizes a company in “better” way, it can lead to higher productivity.
Exactly, when-if the currently active 2-last generations of German/Austrian/Swiss/.. ” fachmann ” disappears because of lack of new apprentices entering this eternal cycle then the whole trades-specialist and industrial culture withers as well.
That is what has already happened in the US to large/r degree, apart from the house construction domain, which still lures Spanish speaking new cadre, and few in between ala ~NASA / MIC grade specialists ( also often imported ) the hands-on work culture has notably deteriorated there vs many other areas of the world. Selling to each other imported CHN warez is a way to stagnation and then shortly to obliteration.
In a minor – in fact insignificant way – I was at one time greatly depressed by the now certain fate of my craft, fine book binding.
I have a fine array of very rare and beautiful tools and equipment – some even from the old Royal bindery at Windsor Castle – which, with care, could last for one or two centuries, or even more, but it won’t be passed on.
‘So long to learn, so quick to disappear’ (to adapt Ugo Bardi’s favourite Seneca quote).
I shall probably solemnly consign all the tools to the local river god (actually there’s a nice little lake nearby) when the end comes, as I don’t wish to see them dishonoured as scrap metal. The wooden things will be burned.
Noble things should have a noble end.
The beauty of a tradition is that one’s own death really doesn’t matter, so long as the young will take it up.
Few people appreciate this perspective, because what they do is ephemeral, and just done for mere money.
People who do things for money are easier to control.
Despite the near-total concentration of exports through Yanbu, volumes have declined steadily from the March peak, according to WoodMac’s tracking data. By June, Yanbu loadings had fallen to around 2.39 million bpd, down by 41% from the March peak and a 66% slump from the total Saudi export level from January of about 7.96 million bpd across both Gulf and Red Sea terminals.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Red-Sea-Crude-Exports-Have-Sank-41-Since-March-Peak.html
Why on earth would it fall when the bab was open?
You know how it is, Babsie and Moozie were inseparable. When one goes it’s often touch and go for the other the first year.
I remember early on that a remark was made that exports were limited by the amount of tanker shipping capacity that was available in the Red Sea. The concern at that time was that it would be too low.
“HHS says they uncovered over 36,000 doctors had their Medicare reimbursements directly altered based on childhood vaccination rates. RFK Jr. calls these hidden financial incentives a corruption of medical judgment. “?
https://x.com/Lee_Maasen/status/2081047322512040078?s=20
Autism parents were concerned about vaccines around 40 years ago. Filling 7 pound babies with all kinds of vaccines made no sense. Too many children started symptoms, right after vaccinations.
Also they Also they lump so many together in one shot. That can’t be good.
And some, as you know Gail, died….
A Canadian neighbour has a vaccinated autistic teenage son, who is a great burden to bear.
Her completely un-vaccinated daughter is the spirit of Life self.
She is racked by guilt for allowing the vaccinations. But she is not the guilty one!
They, he truly guilty, lied, and covered up, and took the money.
She heard of Natasha Campbell McBride and her clinic which she eventually started because her son had severe autism?
I’ll ask her, thanks R. She’s well-informed so probably has.
Vaccination injury changed my health drastically, fortunately with no mental effects (although some might well disagree!).
Whoah, sorry to hear that.
Chronic illness teaches determination – I don’t fold when I hit smaller problems or minor indispositions like some healthier people. I get rather angry with whingers, which is unkind, but…..
That’s great man. I can be pretty lazy about little maintenance issues with my body since it’s always been so low maintenance but at 50 I’m starting to get to that point now where I’m gonna have to start putting some effort into it. Probably time to break out some black bear tallow from the freezer for my left elbow strain (I’m right handed) that’s hanging around longer than I’d like. And maybe even doing some strengthening exercises. Poor shearing technique during haying season and then lifting a larger goat by the gambrel up onto a hook at eye level for dressing it out is what did it.
I have a 47 year old son with autism. I used to go to autism conferences for parents. That’s how I know what they were talking about 40 years ago.
These vaccines are very suspicious. After Covid I have such little trust in the medical establishment. I’ve also read some theories about Autism being the result of older male sperm and/or children being born from Autistic parents (both mother and father having Autism). In today’s world with so much complexity and technology, those with Autism thrive as they utilize parts of the brain inaccessible to the neurotypical. There’s another interesting theory that those with Autism helped humankind through very difficult bottleneck as they can focus to problem solve and tune out the cultural niceties that shackle the neurotypicals. One of the big challenges of an Autistic person is reading the minds of others. However, this can also be viewed as a blessing in disguise.
I am not autistic and there is nothing an autistic person can do that I do not have the potential to be able to do. Autism may sharpen some abilities no different from how blindness sharpens the other senses but that does not make it a superpower. It’s a disability. That’s just woke ‘neurodiversity’ politics putting lipstick on a pig.
Calling it a ‘super power’, which I think Musk does, is part of the cover-up, as far as I can see.
yes ‘super power’ is a little much… however its interesting what Musk has leaked to the public. Chris Martenson found a podcast interview with Musk describing a DOGE audit finding 14 federal systems that could make money “out of thin air” and issue payments. (magic money computer with blank check authority). This is probably why DOGE ended and Musk had to leave DC.
We discussed it here alive as it was evolving. Picture from memory the scene of first hours / days of POTUS in o. office.
Musk was in front of cameras announcing host of various reform initiatives, all around him jumping his unruly kids, and only there in the background in sorry 3rd plane was Donald silent behind the desk and fuming..
It was clear this won’t continue much longer.. be it for personal or policy angle ( or both ).
I personally love the company of autistic people because you don’t have to deal with the social games of the neurotypicals. I don’t see as a disability at all. I appreciate directness… I’m not saying that neurotypicals don’t possess these abilities… just that Aspies tend to have them in higher percentages.
My oldest and closest friend is like that, but as we don’t meet in person so frequently these days I do find the extreme directness and lack of tact rather wearing at times, whereas with more frequent contact I barely noticed it.
But at least you know where you are: dogged persistent loyalty, and utter honesty, which is something in this wicked world!
You’ll love random tongue swabs at mandatory pop up police stops..( drug tests)
Because we’re all closet meth heads apparently.
coming to a roadside near…all of us…
No body swabs da tongue!! No body
As long as there are none of the anal pokings the Chinese reportedly came up with during Covid…..
I’ll be buggered if I am going to bend over for that sort of thing.
JUST IN – Bordeaux council considering “total evacuation of the city if needed,” as wildfires spread in France, with more than 220,000 people displaced since the start of the fires — Sky
Anyone with additional info on this ?
Wildfires in France and Spain claim lives, forcing 300,000 people to flee their homes
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-26/france-spain-wildfires-force-250-000-people-to-flee-homes/106958588
Basically, this is round #2 to this season massive heat wave, the blob of hot air crossing-jumping northwards from ~Sahara/Africa returned few weeks ago, and edged over Spain and southern France chiefly. While north of Alps/east of Ardennes total cold under prevailing ~Arctic weather, ~9-15C nights I kid you NOT, but the forecast was for 35-40C dayz to return everywhere again as well.
So, for these specific countries and regions under hot spell it is very cruel situation as in self-repeating and intensifying horror. Most of EU countries are dispatching their ad hoc emergency crews and hardware to help them out a bit.
This is one reason why I decided not to move to my ancestral, heavily-wooded, Pyrenees.
The other is that the property bubble there is still insane! Huge rises since 2018.
Ecosystems are cyclic, like everything else. We know that forests go through cycles, where they burn. Perhaps cities do also?
France has evacuated more than 220,000 people as its largest wildfire spreads across the southwest, threatening Bordeaux. ”
https://x.com/iihtishamm/status/2081290056275570812/video/1
FRANCE: France has evacuated more than 220,000 people as the country’s largest wildfire continues to spread across the southwest, threatening Bordeaux. Officials said the blaze in Gironde has become so intense that it is generating its own winds. Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said wildfires have burned nearly 98,000 hectares across France this year, a historic record, with 32,700 hectares destroyed in Gironde alone this week.
awful… so sad
Conspiracists like kulm on yootoob saying it’s payback by the Cabal for Spain not following the FIFA script. While the positron Beam is certainly capable of seeding the fires I’d like to see cities burning from the inside-out like LA and Lahaina before talking about it because the prevailing conditions provide for too much political cover lol.
It’s nothing to do with the FIFA script.
The Hand is simply terraforming Spain to make the place more comfortable for its new African immigrants. 😉
DEI desertification.
dimanche 12:28
Le feu «à 15 km» de la métropole bordelaise
L’incendie massif qui a embrasé les pourtours du bassin d’Arcachon et parcouru 42’000 hectares se trouve «à 15 kilomètres» de la métropole bordelaise mais une évacuation de Bordeaux n’est «pas à l’ordre du jour», a réaffirmé dimanche son maire Thomas Cazenave.
«Il n’y a pas d’évacuation de Bordeaux à l’ordre du jour, je le redis. Ici, le feu est davantage au sud. Il est toujours en lisière de métropole, mais il ne progresse pas sur le flanc ouest de la métropole», a déclaré l’édile lors d’un point presse, situant les flammes entre «25 et 30 km» de Bordeaux et «15 km de la métropole» au niveau de Martignas-sur-Jalle.
Translation:
Sunday 12:28
Fire “15 km” from the Bordeaux metropolitan area
The massive blaze that has engulfed the area around the Arcachon Basin and burned through 42,000 hectares is located “15 kilometers” from the Bordeaux metropolitan area, but an evacuation of Bordeaux is “not on the agenda,” Mayor Thomas Cazenave reaffirmed on Sunday.
“There is no evacuation of Bordeaux on the agenda; I repeat that. Here, the fire is further south. It remains on the edge of the metropolitan area but is not advancing along its western flank,” the mayor stated during a press briefing, placing the flames between “25 and 30 km” from Bordeaux and “15 km from the metropolitan area” near Martignas-sur-Jalle.
——
I hope the winds don’t change. I see another comment talks about evacuating 200,000 people from the general area, not necessarily Bordeaux.
We have placed a lot of hope that everything in the future will be similar to the past.
Europe is the fastest warming continent – its closeness to the Arctic (fastest warming region on on the planet)….less snow and ice (lose albedo affect to reflect sun)….cleaner air (with stricter emissions there’s fewer particulates in atmosphere (aerosols) to reflect sun…..more hot air is being trapped over the continent during summers…
Yes, you could be right in the sense, that Europe is no longer able to stay cool-strong enough to repel the intrusion of the super hot air from W Africa. I gather you don’t ( obviously ) have it on the news 24/365 but the anim weather sat images for the region show it clearly as it is two mode system: either the hot incoming air stays mostly bellow Gibraltar ( south from Spain ) or it is ” allowed ” to travel northbound like right now. Plus it could even worsen further more – what is likely coming in few next days as the ~whole Europe gets entangled into this hot wave brake-in as well. And then we have to wait patiently ~weeks till the Arctic takes control again.. and restores the barrier vs that hot African air transfer so to speak..
Jr… its scary what’s coming with this El Nino as the oceans are already too warm… I feel bad for Europe.
“Over the past week, President Trump has continued pouring additional F-15s, F-35s, and other American airpower into the region. Historically, Trump has rarely ordered major U.S. force buildups on this scale without escalating. Whether those options are ultimately used remains uncertain. But the operational choices available to Washington are changing rapidly.”?
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/my-nightmare-scenario-for-the-iran
Dr. Pape is doing an online interview on Monday at 7:00pm for subscribers. He seems to be looking for new subscribers.
donupstream
Dumb Algorithms
Financial talking heads keep referring to oil being taken down by dumb algorithms.
Bro, trust me when I tell you there’s nothing dumb or random about what’s happening
dckpttn
2 hours ago
What I want to know is why banks are continuing to lend to oil companies for drilling wells that have no hope of payback. It’s bizarre. This is not the first time, either. There were about 200 billion in debts swept away by bankruptcies occuring in 2015-2020. The money was lent after the oil price crashed.
One thing I have to mention is that according to IEA, there is a large structural surplus overhanging the market as soon as the Iran war concludes. Maybe that has something to do with it .
Conway Carriage
12 hours ago
The largest interruption of energy flow in human history, $85/bbl. 2008, market short 1mil bbl/day, 147/bbl. Ya, not manipulated….. Today physical barrel delivered closer to 160$. Paper, can’t break 90. And people need an “explanation”. Wonder what they are going to blame the world crop failure (no fertilizer) on? Price of gold was kept down after the drop off the gold standard, buy dumping reserves. It came to a crashing halt when it couldn’t be sustained. This will be no different
An exchange at OSB . Copy/paste .
reante sitting back with a smug grin on his face while everyone continues to tear their hair out because they’ve never heard of the Triangle Of Doom and don’t realize how broke the civilization is. Turns out the AI bubble didn’t make the civilization wealthier lol
Looks like we just got another mini feathering with the Trump pause as we neared a hundred. BNS is running its own warpspeed Triangle Of Doom huh Ellen?
Carefully orchestrated BNS just as predicted for years. Hand waiting on rationing — price controls by other means — before pulling the trigger on the grand finale of the fireworks show.
When Europe and Asia are paying basically double for the same amount of oil imports as they were say 5-6 years ago. They are still getting the same amount of oil to power their economies. Yet they got to come up with twice the money to pay for it. Not only that but their internal debt has greatly expanded putting more demand for loan repayment.
There are a few folks out there that believe silver is going to $300 and gold to $10,000. Or oil should be at $150 or $200.
Basically the so called debasement trade.
The real story is. There aren’t enough dollars to go around by a long shot. Which is why governments particularly those in Asia at the moment are struggling. Why they are having to liquidate assets to prop up their economies and currencies.
When the Japanese Yen collapses past 200 on it’s way to 250 and 300 to the dollar. It’s going to take down the rest of Asia with it including China.
It’s not the flow of dollars coming out of the US that is the problem. It’s the lack of credit creation or balance sheet expansion from Eurodollar banks outside the US that is the problem. A problem that no amount of central bank rate cuts or QE can solve. A problem that no amount of government intervention can solve.
People are quick to claim rigged markets when the truth is they don’t fully understand what they have invested in.
Back in the late ’70s and early ’80s, used to listen to BBC and VoA regularly on shortwave radio (dystopian side note: we in India needed to pay an annual license fee at the post offices for our radios!). Although I was only in high school, used to be fascinated by the exchange rate updates. Distinctly remembered that the Japanese Yen was trading north of 200 against USD. A google search now confirmed that. It had hit a peak of 277 in 1982.
Inspiring!
37 miles from Yemen border.
Hit first time today.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8VAlL0o9nv8&pp=ygUUSml6YW0gYXJhbWNvIGphZnVyYWg%3D#searching
Maybe this was what was hit today? I left a comment about a refinery in Jazan being hit earlier.
rld’s Largest Industrial Gas Complex in Jazan, Saudi Arabia | Air Products
Air Products has built the world’s largest industrial gas complex in Jazan, a new sustainable, economic city in southwestern Saudi Arabia. The complex will produce enough energy to power 10 million homes.
Why would Saudi pick a fight with the Houthis when they have trillions of dollars of brand new infrastructure 40 miles from the border that guarantees massive income? Why wouldn’t you become Yemen’s benefactor raising standard of living with your massive wealth instead of purchasing expensive military equipment to deliver strikes incapable of diminishing Houthi capabilities?
One possibility lies in religion culture and what appears to be a ubiquitous trend in current human condition. Exceptionalism. A form of madness that is followed even to the exclusion of obvious self interest.
Nine Sunnis for every Shia. Sunni will lose everything rather than cooperate because exceptionalism has blurred the line between cooperation and dominance for so long now it is too late.
As always behavior reveals reality of the human condition whether individual or group.
Too bad. Industrial civilization kind of needs that infrastructure.
The alternative possibility is if you happened to believe in carbon based climate change the destruction of that infrastructure would be appropriate in the extreme. You might even manipulate extreme beliefs to make it happen. No opinion here on what is accurate and what is motives or the reality of carbon based climate change. Just observing as across the globe carbon based energy facilitation is destroyed en masse to the detriment of the standard of living we enjoy. Clearly exceptionalism is the primary mechanism of the destruction in terms of localized intent. What is unclear is whether this is a organic manifestation or the exceptionalism is being cultivated for a greater purpose. It’s appearance simultaneously across the globe might indicate that.
Are we experiencing a cleansing of the madness of exceptionalism by the sphere? Is the dislogic of the exceptionalism as a exclusive following of MPP creating what we witness? Is something else occuring that is beyond our understanding? That I simply don’t know.
Another possibility is a new dominant species has emerged. Predecessors of dominance never understand the events that lead to their extinction. It’s quite clear we are entering a period with a possibility of a extinction event. Climate change itself has this possibility without any energy cessation.
Cessation of carbon based energy has less impact on the environment than a thermonuclear weapon exchange. That might be desirable to a new dominant species emerging.
If the carbon warming believers are correct it might be considered beneficial to the environment from the perspective of the species of all life forms flora and fauna that inhabit the sphere. Including of course our species. Then the events we witness might be regarded as attempts to prevent a extinction event.
That’s how I see events. I think they are bigger than our understanding. Certainly bigger than my understanding.
None of which matters in the least in terms of the consequences we will soon encounter from the systematic disassembly of carbon based energy infrastructure. It is only normal to try and avoid suffering. That is part of being human. All we can do is try to be as healthy and happy as we can and be true to ourselves as we seek to avoid suffering. Really suffering is not avoidable it is integral to the human condition. My perspective because of this is avoiding suffering is not a effective strategy but pursuing health and happiness is even as we fail at it. While I most certainly do not welcome current events perhaps they can serve as challenge to our coping skills not from a survival perspective but from the perspective of piercing the veil of illusion and self deception.
Interesting thoughts, as always.
More important, surely, to avoid degradation and dishonour, than suffering?
Personally, I shall endeavour to protect worthwhile I know people from suffering as much as I am able.
But really it is in the hands of God – or the gods as you will.
heavy dog soliloquy cuz dog likes it heavy. Get a load of this crowd at a recent System of A Down show in Poland. This is why the Hand plays it straight during Phase 2 of Collapse. Spent fuel pools and angry young men are motivations 1 and 1A for the social nationalisms.
https://youtu.be/ny0J2b62WjM
Wow that was a gathering?
Apparently it’s the Aramco oil refinery adjacent to the Air Products facility that was hit.
So what was hit was not the big, new facility.
Air products is a pretty universal vender. Their slepping a bit associating themselves with the entire industrial complex. Which made it a good video to show the extent of the incredible complex. From what I can garner damage was very light as was the attack itself. Ditto for the Houthi Yanbu strike that occurred at the same time ki. These can be regarded as true “love taps” as Trump says nothing like for instance the Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure where the intent is to destroy as much as possible. If Saudi has half a brain they will not respond. Growling and baring of teeth. No one is serious yet about destroying infrastructure thank God.
Why Trump ‘paused’?
I’m thinking helium investment opportunities.
https://youtube.com/shorts/IznxXVIF4l8?si=ZlgrlC3ryu4VRFs5
Leak rate might exceed .1 mtorr though.
How does that compare to diaper don’s rate?
New Jesse Welles song, “There’s A Hole in the Ass of America.”
https://youtu.be/s9FBnLxcqqw
I am cautiously buying diesel, as this hay season is proving to be dreadful due to weather. 700 liters only, 70 rubles per liter. Paid 62 last year approximately same time. Was quoted 104 just 6 weeks ago. Probably gov’t will give me a better deal but they are still working on things for direct sales. Gasoline exports ban now extended to Dec. 31.
People seem to have digested that now drone attacks are overwhelmingly directed to civilians. The 12+ people killed at a resort seem to have had a psychological impact. Internet went down around 5 pm, 5 hrs ago, meaning there are drones in the air. The town is full of people right now but everyone is inside. ghost town. (came to town because I have many texts to send). Also, I was asked to sell one of my trailers, pitiful offer, said no. but someone out there is buying.
Thanks for the update.
This attack on Russia, whether facilities or innocent civilians, doesn’t even register with people here in England. They can only think of vacations.
I am sometimes inclined to think that people so incurious deserve whatever happens to them, but this I know is unfair – was I not once one of them myself?
Moreover, unlike much earlier attacks by ‘Ukraine’, the media are not reporting this with boastful headlines. In effect, it is an under-cover war.
I wonder if the strategy is to conceal this escalating aggression by the West, so that any severe Russian response – against Poland, the Baltics, etc – can be presented as being out of the blue and unprovoked?
If Russia doesn’t hit back at the orchestrators, it won’t stop, as the proximal attackers are merely disposable proxies. Hence the idea of hitting Baltic to establish deterrence makes no sense.
However, the way I read the Saudi-US atom shenanigans is that the US gives MBS a small nuke right now, and he drops it on Yemen and dare Eurasia to retaliate. As written elsewhere, I think a small nuke was already dropped on Yemen in 2015.
I just took it at face value that they now have to dangle carrots for their wayward vassals, Saudi and Turkey.
Maybe the Russians just need to paint a picture of personal pain and let that settle in the aggressors heads. No bombing of Iran since the below was released.
https://t.me/ukraine_watch/64939
The west is so screen adled, it’s almost possible.
It would be an awfully enlightened and poetic way for the Hand to end Zionism. It would lower the bar of manufactured consent for the American Coup too. The Hand taking out a handful of the top MAGA political and military leaders during rationing would easily justify full martial law and the.holding of military elections when the dust settles.
I have to admit, I’m dreadfully excited by the thought of an American Coup!
All the entertaining theatre these is concentrated in the US – senile Biden, Tiberius-Trump,etc, – while over on this side of the Atlantic it’s just a relentless drift into dull Totalitarianism, guided by commonplace fascist functionaries in the EU, and the most common and grubby politicos in the UK.
I think martial law and rationing will come around the same time and it would be easier for them if they could do the martial law bit first.
Kill first(terror cells running amok) and there’s the reason for martial law, then anything they want follows. I question who made the video.
I’m stuck on rationing, it would need to be a huge event to lead the public into acceptance of real rationing(2020 wasn’t), without the control of martial law.
People are very gullible. It doesn’t have to be a huge event. “No one can drive farther than 20 miles per week to prevent climate change” might be a suitable excuse.
I’m probably looking at rationing in a more extreme sense. Little steps works, but takes time, so I’m expecting a bigger hit.
I’ve been keeping an eye on the number plate cameras and they are going up everywhere. All major roads and junctions have them. Now I’m noticing the smaller roads, that connect everything getting them(near impossible to avoid now). There will definitely be restrictions, but can we keep milage limits for the electric cars and litres/gallons for those of us that burn our ff on location(17 miles to where I fish, but I suppose I could be convinced to stay all week, if there’s no route left that avoids cameras).
I’ll need to check the law when it comes in and see how I can miraculously become a “key worker” over night, without changing what I do(dubiously managed it in 2020 and even found a legal way to claim disability, but that was dealing with people. Not sure the algorithm will listen).
>> even found a legal way to claim disability
Sounds like you’re saying you don’t have one, but you finaggled it. Not something to be proud of.
I haven’t used it, but legally I could claim to be disabled. I can not claim any financial assistance, as it is indeed a non issue, but faced with police, lawyers, or even a judge, I can’t be penalised in certain situations were being classed as able bodied would be. That’s called playing them at their own shit game(it was 2020 and I would have been a mug not to. So simple, all it took was a bit of reading).
I have tinnitus in one ear. As tinnitus is listed as incurable, any change is only viewed as deterioration, so it’s classed as degenerative and in a court of law, by their own definition(I checked) any degenerative ailment is a legal disability(I might qualify for a reduced railcard, but that’s about it financially).
If you just want to be left alone, which I did, it worked, although pretending to be mad also works(doesn’t impress my daughter, I quickly learned) with most, but I wouldn’t try it on with a judge.
Fitz, fair enough, thought you were talking about welfare etc.
My first post was open to interpretation, so understandable, but I would say, don’t blame the poor for taking whatever is available. It’s not like their jobs, if they can get one, pay enough and they are not unaware of the much larger frauds commited every day by the rich. Even those that never work and never will, I’m fine with giving them benifits, for the simple reason that they would just turn to burglary(much shorter hours) and I like my house as it is.
Ivan, in war, love and collapse everything is permitted.
drb, I have somewhat contradictory inclinations. On the one hand, I think one has a moral obligation to, to the extent of one’s capability, be independent and not burden society. At the same time, if one lives within an immoral nation, one could argue that bringing it down via drag is in fact the moral option. I haven’t come to a conclusion.
I don’t know where he is, but in the USA, we haven’t collapsed yet.
“Sounds like you’re saying you don’t have one (a disability), but you finaggled it. Not something to be proud of.”
But Fitz is an anarchist, you know. 😉 Anyway, the money he gained just doesn’t compare to all the millions the British ultra-rich stash away in our oversea tax havens. Why do you suppose the UK still maintains “British overseas territories” ?
Nothing gained except the continuation of my own choice and although I’m not an anarchist, I’m sure they would agree. Ever read any?
“Civilization, synonym of Capital, Technology and The Modern World, called Leviathan by Hobbes and Western Spirit by Turner, is as racked by decomposition as any earlier Leviathan. But Civilization is not one Leviathan among many. It is The One. Its final decomposition is Leviathan’s end. After twenty centuries of stony sleep vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, the sleeper is about to wake to the cadences of a long-forgotten music or to the eternal silence of death without a morrow.
It will be said of the Europeans who carry the beast to the world’s last places of refuge and who thereby put a term on the beast’s existence that they know not what they do. Their ignorance of themselves, of others and of Earth is proverbial, but it does not altogether account for their behavior. The Europeans are zeks, administrative zeks and menial zeks, children and grandchildren of zeks. If some of them remember ancestors who were no zeks, none of them can imagine the world of those ancestors, a world that was not a labor camp, and what they cannot imagine they cannot see, even while looking at it. In this sense they are ignorant. But they know that they are incomplete, that something inside them is stunted or dead, and they resent the slightest suggestion that others possess what they lack. The resentment makes them strike fiercely at any who pretend to be more, for Europeans are great equalizers — Democrats thay will call themselves — and they are determined to universalize their own condition. In this sense they are not ignorant for they know perfectly well what they do and also why.”
Against His-Story. Against Leviathan
Freddy Perlman 1934-1985
Those client states seem to be very happy to be lined up as disposable – and very vulnerable – proxies.
Their populations seem to be utterly passive about it all, too.
A new area of fighting, not directly involving the US. This is in southern Saudi Arabia, very close to Yemen. The Houthis in Yemen have set fire to an oil refinery in Southern Saudi Arabia.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/us-pauses-iran-bombing-campaign-saudi-houthi-red-sea-front-erupts
BREAKING: Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree says the group has launched two “sensitive operations” targeting Saudi Arabia, vowing that the principle of a “blockade for a blockade” will continue.
Saudi Arabian oil refinery reportedly hit by Houthi missile:
Smoke has been seen coming from a Saudi Arabian oil refinery in Jazan after reports of a Houthi missile attack and air defence activity.
The Iran-backed Houthis said they had launched a series of attacks on the country in retaliation to Friday’s Saudi strikes on Hodeidah.
This is a map showing the location of Jazan.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Location-map-of-Jazan-south-west-Saudi-Arabia-along-the-Red-Sea-coast-annotating-the_fig1_366891990
The “sensitive operation” being the systematic defeat of the Export Land Model of Collapse by reducing exporters’ domestic consumption capabilities.
Where are the stadia full of people cheering on each and every lifesaving refinery targeting is what I want to know. This is too good to be true. So where are they? Lol
That is an interesting point. Refineries in India or China are likely more efficient. The standards of living in the Middle East are quite high, subsidized by oil money. The high population of the area is not sustainable.
We have obviously reached a point of no return the oil supplies cannot be squandered because oil supplies are needed for the transition expect a permanent lockdown world to begin shortly where we will have only rationed oil assigned to us if you an ‘essential worker’.
The rationing won’t be as bad as that at first. Might be worse than what drb has been experiencing or it might not be. Will vary depending on the country.
Yes, your phase two looks even appealing-appetizing by now given the recent news, developments.
Looking forward what will be nixed w. the most fervor there soon ?
– Passenger airliners
– Payed vacation-holidayz
– Air condition units as well airconned public space-bldgs. everywhere
– 1500x flavors of ice-cream
– re-drafted electricity hi/low tariffs
– %%-off regular sales regiment on staple foods
..
.
Schools! Schools will be nixed. I’m free at last! I’m definitely anticipating not going back to school in September. We can see how the tertiary function of the plandemic was as an organizational dry run for the BNS.
I’m cheering. It’s us or them. F them.
Pure horror in my area.
8 family members dead. Murder suicide. (6 kids killed)
https://x.com/BNONews/status/2080807136821428611
This is very wealthy Christian family area. (west michigan is like Utah)
https://x.com/chicagotribune/status/2077721369245036932
2 teens charged in fatal shootings of 5 family members in East St. Louis
Not sure how religion factors into any of these crimes. I’m sure the people in this part of the U.S. were just as religious.
Pressures of life in the big city? Or why can’t these NYC I-talians control themselves?
https://nypost.com/2026/07/22/us-news/dark-family-history-of-nyc-husband-suspected-of-stabbing-tv-set-designer-wife-to-death-revealed/
A North Italian would say ‘What can you do with Sicilians/Neapolitans?’
Although reading the diaries of – hocked – English residents in Italy in the 18thc, life was cheap all over Italy then.
Napoleon apparently brought the murder rate down for a time, and when he was defeated it shot up again.
Poison was always said to be the favourite method of Italians in an earlier period. Rather sophisticated.
Tim, this is a small town on shores of Lake Michigan. Its basically like the small town in the movie “Jaws”.
The mother was a beloved Elementary school teacher. They had six kids and one was adopted. Here is a family photo.
https://x.com/VoicesEvidence/status/2081620195404308850/photo/1
Looking at this photo, I see a very nice healthy normal family with good hardworking parents and well-behaved happy children.
It is truly shocking, in a way that similar mass murders in big city deprived areas are not quite as shocking. I suspect this is because they happen less frequently in rich suburbs and rural areas. We are not accustomed to seeing this level of violence in this kind of setting.
I find this particular tragedy deeply unsettling. A man killing his own wife and children, and his pets. Without knowing the background, it doesn’t make sense. He must have been in an extremely confused and agitated state of mind.
I found the following report:
A man fatally shot his wife and their six children, then himself, before they all were found in their burning Michigan home last week, investigators said Monday.
Kristopher and Amanda Karolkiewicz and their six children, aged 5 to 15, died Friday in their home in Grand Haven Township, on the eastern shore of Lake Michigan. Authorities were summoned for a fire and then discovered the bodies.
The Ottawa County Sheriff’s Department said in a release Monday that autopsies determined all the family members died of gunshot wounds, and that Kristopher Karolkiewicz took his own life.
“The investigation shows that this was a murder-suicide,” Capt. Jacob Sparks wrote.
The fire appears to have been set intentionally in multiple parts of the home after the killings, but officials still are investigating the origin point, Sparks said. The family’s pets perished in the blaze.
Messages seeking comment were sent Monday to the couple’s relatives.
Kris Karolkiewicz was 47; his wife, who went by Mandy, was 39.
The couple met at work at a beverage company in 2008 and began dating that summer, according to a parenting-oriented blog that Mandy Karolkiewicz kept over a decade ago.
Their first child was born on April 25, 2011, which she hailed as “the best day of my life (so far).” Two more sons followed over the next four years, as she shifted from a banking job to a part-time position at a local insurance agency and later stopped working outside the home. The couple was planning to adopt more children at the time.
The blog frequently expressed her Christian faith, her joy in the family and her love and appreciation for her husband and his parenting. “My kids have that actual example of a selfless, Christ-like father,” she wrote in 2015.
Kris Karolkiewicz, too, hailed their life together: “I’m a very lucky guy,” he wrote in a 2019 Facebook post ahead of their 10th anniversary.
Kris Karolkiewicz was a vice president of sales and marketing for the American Heart Association from September 2023 to earlier this month, when his employment ended, an organization spokesperson said. The association did not release further details, saying it does not comment on personnel matters. While with the AHA, he worked remotely for a division responsible for CPR and first aid training and products, it said.
Recently, Mandy Karolkiewicz was a substitute teacher at an elementary school, earning praise for going “above and beyond for students, especially when they’re having a hard day, responding with empathy, patience, and care,” as the local school district put it in a Facebook post in January. A message seeking comment was sent Monday to the Grand Haven Area Public Schools system, which — without identifying anyone — exhorted the public in a post Friday to “avoid speculation” about the deaths.
Although her blog ended in 2016, Mandy Karolkiewicz continued sharing updates on her family and activities in TikTok videos, including clips of a trip to China earlier this month with two of her children.
https://www.courthousenews.com/officials-say-man-killed-wife-and-6-kids-then-himself-before-all-were-found-in-michigan-home-fire/
So what is your point Mob?
Everyday on the news I see “pure horror”. Ghetto shootings, rapes, murders. Especially in the inner city black community.
If we eliminated single mother welfare, a great deal could be done to reform the shattered black family structure.
Thankfully, with deportation of illegal immigrant criminals, murder and rape rates are going down.
All I know is, that after BAU, criminals like this will be dealt with differently….
Is Utah ghetto?
My point is that it’s extremely uncommon for something like that to occur in my area. This is the area the movie “American Pie” was based and filmed.
And there’s no deportation you moron. They created ICE because they wanted more police forces and every major city is on the border.
And news flash Jesse. They want you armed AF. So you’ll end up using the guns on yourself. (doubles your chances of suic*de + collapsing economy = X )
Pretty clever trap eh?
From your cold dead hands. And that’s exactly what they plan on doing. (careful what we wish for)
Mob this is simply a mental breakdown they happen and where guns are involved can end badly.
Everything is related to your state of mind so murder suicide rape are all effects of bad choices made by the mind everything evil can be traced back to the mind making the decision that you are doing the right thing when evil things are chosen.
Yes, ICE is this administration’s private police kinda like the Brown Shirts (and Gestapo). But also think the deportations might be a way to slow the economy and consumer demand. Under Biden there was a massive wave of immigration which caused a lot of inflation particularly in housing. On another subject, I found it interesting how in the last year, this administration made it a point to not pay federally linked airport staff. It would seem they are trying to make flying as unpleasant as possible (with long lines, delays, cancellations) in order to kill demand for flying which takes a lot of energy consumption particularly of jet fuel. Your thoughts?
IMO I don’t think they’re brownshits. I think they just need more staff because many are dying or becoming disabled. Same with calling national guard. They can police if they have to. Since they’re trained with several of the same tactics.
yeah my definition might be extreme… but was trying to use comparison…
Things like this can happen wherever they want it to.You bought into the real estate marketing hype that your area or any area is truly safe.
Oi, less of the “moron” name calling, you cretin!!
I thought Jesse made a reasonable point. And let’s not jump to confusions or contusions until we know the race, creed, color and socioeconomic status of the victims of this heinous and shocking (because it took place in middle-class rural Michigan rather than Detroit?) crime.
Apologies! I should have put in a smiley after the two exclamation marks. Of course MOB is a highly intelligent person, as is Jesse.
I think mental issues may be the problem.
When I was away at college, a high school girl who lived a few doors away from my parents shot and killed both of her parents. The girl doing the shooting thought that her parents had favored her sister, over her. These kinds of things have been a problem for a long time. My mother said she had given the girl rides to school, occasionally.
Patient attempted suicide because they can’t afford the rent anymore . The system is convincing me that the behavior is due to depression , personality disorder , lack of motivation and an unhealthy coping mechanism .
We are too afraid to mention capitalism and a housing crisis .
Dr Jonas Attilus MD
Or a system that is pushing some people out. We are dealing with survival of the best adapted. We have overshot the resources of the world.
The more they mention inclusion, the more they push people out of the system.
The more they mention security, the more they push people out of the system.
Richard Heinberg died on July 19th. Here is a long video of richard playing the violin at the New England. Conservatory of music, followed by an excellent lecture on the crisis that is unfolding before us. https://www.resilience.org/stories/2017-12-28/post-carbon-music/
Thanks for the information. This seems to be an obituary.
https://everloved.com/life-of/richard-heinberg/obituary/
that is the worst thing dying before the world collapses rest in peaceRichard heinberg
Is it?
I avoided probable death by tractor-trailer on US Interstate 94 a few years back. After the incident I questioned if God was offering me an EZ out (from what I surmise (then and now)) would be bloody, vengeful lawlessness.
I knew a friend, even more desperately consternated, who received a diagnosis of untreatable, terminal pancreatic cancer and died near that same time.
I wondered if friend, despite lacking any inclination to a Higher Power, had received a one-way ticket out for which gratitude could be given, as a definitive analgesic to angst.
The surer I feel that collapse is imminent (and that the Hand will go arthritic and seize and fail) I ponder why I might wish to witness it? What sense of satisfaction will I get when I can tell myself, “I told you so? as I drive as fast as my last tank will take me towards a scenic venue to finally commune with Ever and swallow the Eucharist of Floydchrist as I willfully absolve myself of agency and let consciousness precipitate out.
You’re a good writer sciou. Word on the street is that the Hand uses black bear tallow as a salve every night before turning down the sheets so I expect we’ll continue to be in dextrous hands if not safe ones.
I hurt my left elbow recently, which led to my whole left arm being useless for lifting heavier weights, etc, – OK for everyday stuff.
I applied fresh stinging nettles daily, which reduced the pain greatly while it self-healed.
This also dealt with a chronic pain in my left knee which had dogged me for years.
When in doubt, try nettles.
I’m also a masochist….!
No kidding, X. Great tip. That must be fairly intense, rubbing stinging nettles all over. We have a few stands along the creek that we harvest for tea every year. I’ll keep that in mind thank you.
The bear grease is very powerful.
Legion!
RIP
This is a link to a post I wrote in 2020. If you scroll down, it links to a video recording of an interview by Chris Martenson of Richard Heinberg, Art Berman, and me.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/11/09/energy-is-the-economy-shrinkage-in-energy-supply-leads-to-conflict/
What a treat Gail!!! I’m looking forward to watching.
Lucky guy. He does not have to see the coming horrors.
Heinberg was also probably the first energy author in the West, performing the structural analysis on the Cuban ~PO response after ~1990 vanishing oil imports. His notes ring true to this moment, notably the realization such as ” eco-ag / regen-ag ” could appear – deliver only as a result of broader transformation to previous shock and seizure of previous system – aka the affluent #1-#2 (for now) oil saturated world is not there yet.
https://richardheinberg.com/159-threats-of-peak-oil-to-the-global-food-supply
PS unfortunately can’t now find his later comment / hint ( perhaps mentioned in the movies ) on the situation in affluent countries where regen-ag faces the threat of being simply as yet another inventive sub-stream absorbed by the for fin-profit only globocap blob system; which has truly taken place few decades later in many instances ( key protagonists ) sadly..
Updated citation link in Heinberg’s article:
http://www.zo.utexas.edu/courses/THOC/Vituosek_et_al_1986.pdf
That .pdf = 40yrs anniversary of such Ehrlichiana !
His cross-study summaries of net y/y productive capacity for biota on our planet ( land + oceans ) proven to be directionaly correct. He there predicts ~7.5B pop by now, and further continued growth. The first one correct call the second not so, for some reason ” the critics ” focus only on the latter as per his ” discredited ” way earlier, previous 1960-early70s work.
“Humans make up just 0.01% of life: but we’ve had much larger impacts on shaping the animal kingdom. Livestock now outweighs wild mammals and birds ten-fold.”
/just general illustrative quote from elsewhere..
But lets return to the .pdf
So, in 1986 they scenario range estimated ~25-30-40% net primary production capacity ( in terms of sustainability discussion ) of the entire planet already being co-opted by Earthling human-iods and their agro-pet nexus; who then derive from it meager ~3% of total ( -> bodily nourishment ) energy.
This has been trimmed down a bit by some of today’s research as advances like GMO, and or various more potent fertilizing methods yield bigger harvest per site / km2. But still more or less correct.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
But he will miss out on all the fun of receiving nursing care from one of Musk’s Optimus gynoid caregivers.
They will even mow the lawn, bathe the dog, and change the adult diapers.
Oil, Smoke and Mirrors – (FULL ORIGINAL, UNEDITED)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CNRWOHtnE4
This classic and rather scary video about peak oil was released in October 2006.
It contains a few talking heads, and Richard Heinberg is first to speak, and very lucidly and insightfully. He appears a few more times in the video.
This looks interesting… thx for sharing
Ellen, thank you for delivering the sad news, allow for condolences to friends and family if you happen to be from closer circle. Richard was the first leading author for me representing that new wave of thinkers concerned about resource depletion since the early 2000s, he identified and predicted earlier than others several related sub-trends as well, read some of his books and many articles over the years.
I read the books by Heinberg, Kunstler and Greer, all on the same theme – peak oil – published between 2005 and 2008.
Richard Heinberg’s book was entitled ‘The Party’s Over’.
I fear that his health may have been worsened by having too much faith in the modern medical system. Same with a friend of mine who also died of pancreatic cancer, in 2022, aged 74.
That movie “Blindspot” he’s in was amazing!
I have a friend in their mid seventies who has survived with pancreatic cancer for three years now after undergoing the Whipple operation–a major operation to remove the head of the pancreas, the gallbladder, and the first part of the small intestine. But a lot of the friend’s time is now spent going to doctors and hospitals and sitting in waiting rooms for tests, etc.
Richard Heinberg died from pancreatic cancer, which was diagnosed just two weeks before his passing on July 19, 2026, at the age of 75.
https://everloved.com/life-of/richard-heinberg/
Some US pancreatic cancer statistics over time:
2026 estimates. About 67 530 people will be diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, and about 52 740 will die from it.
Lifetime risk. The average lifetime risk of pancreatic cancer is about 1 in 56 in men and about 1 in 60 in women.
Incidence rate. In 2023, the global age-standardized incidence rate (a statistical measure showing the number of new disease cases per 100,000 people worldwide, adjusted to remove the distorting effects of different national age structure) of pancreatic cancer was 6.8 per 100 000 people. Males have a higher incidence rate than females, with an age-standardized rate of 7.3 vs. 6.3 per 100 000.
Median age at diagnosis. In the US, it is 71 years.
5-year survival rate. In 2025, it was approximately 10%.
Pancreatic cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer-related deaths in the US. The high mortality rate is largely due to the late diagnosis and the aggressive nature of the disease.
Apparently king Charles he is suffering also from pancreatic cancer in Britain.
Perhaps there is a physiotype ( and life-style ) %%probability link to various diseases incl. this particular c. variant. Similarly, as for people w. joint problems, or blood sugars, etc.
Few days ago I met ( ran in shop ) to ~90yrs guy, and he was very much demeanor like the ~1890-1920 born generation I used to know on their tail end, very lean, very healthy, basically eating only manna given his basket choices ( not primary a money thing now ). Incredible, thought this genetics disappeared completely by now.
Kunstler has become totally insufferable.
You are welcome. I don’t post much but am a faithful reader and have been reading Gail’s work since the beginning on The Oil Drum. My grandson graduated from NEC recently and I am an admirer of that institution so I was sending him what appeared to be Asher’s favorite illustration of Richard’s quiet genius. I knew that people here would want to know. I don’t know whether anyone had time to listen to the whole NEC program but it is really worth doing.
“Of all the ways to lose a person, death is the kindest.”
― Ralph Waldo Emerson
That’s really sad. I have quite a few of Heinberg’s books, and he will truly be missed.
That’s so sad. I can’t believe it. He looked so healthy. I really enjoyed his work.
I remember his advice was to get out of this financial system. However, I find so difficult – almost impossible as friends and family would think one is crazy. But maybe with the crisis in the Middle East this opportunity might be more viable.
The only way to get out it was to never be in it to begin with. The financial system has a way of putting people into bondage without the need for physical violence. Even the Amish are now somewhat dependent on the financial system for survival. Resistance is indeed, futile. Just ask other people who tried to break away from the financial system. Countries that try to do it are seen as threats to global security.
so true… now way out
MBS applauds b52 strikes. Old scores being brought forth.
Arc light next? First documented use of gravity bombs in a while. You best believe MBS is rooting for B61 dial a yields. No more Syria proxy war. No more Sunni Shia proxy war. Iran Saudi fight is on.
https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1431905228994388&id=100065247720093
The post previous from MBS is a picture of Trump as a Mullah. Draw your own conclusions.
Fake Facebook account. What can I say. I’m gullible.
the elders knew that collapse was comingso AI was needed to control the masses to control the collapse everyone is getting off on AIthey can turn Trump into anything they want.in fact they can turn reality into anything they want they knew that resources were depleting fast so the best way to create a false picture that war was the cause and not natural depletion. So AI Will Survive because it is needed for the collapse to give the masses security blanketsto stop them from becoming killers.
“China has won the AI war & US firms will go bust”?
I see that this is a Steven Keen interview. Keen is an economist that doesn’t preach the same narrative as the mainstream.
“China has won the AI War and US firms will go bust” seems obvious to me. If it can produce similar results at one tenth the cost, US firms cannot win the competition.
China has very much become the Genie which was assisted to get out of the bottle, and is now going its own way as much as possible.
That’s a nice little dam you have on the Three Gorges, Mr Xi. You wouldn’t want anything to happen to it. would you?