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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
Things are going very badly for one part of the AI development system. Zerohedge is reporting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oracles-massive-project-jupiter-data-center-declares-force-majeure-jeopardizing-entire-us
Oracle’s Massive “Project Jupiter” Data Center Declares Force Majeure, Jeopardizing Entire US AI Rollout
Two days ago, when we discussed the startling news that loans backing one of the world’s largest data centers – Oracle’s massive $165 billion Project Jupiter, located on a 1,400 acres campu in Dona Ana country, New Mexico and which is projected to power 2.45GW of compute when it is completed – had tumbled into stressed territory and were trading below 90 cents on the dollar due to a surge in project delays due to fierce local opposition over concerns about its impact on the local area’s water supply and air quality, as well as outcry about the gas emissions from the company’s contracted energy provider, Bloom Energy, we warned that “Project Jupiter’s initial phase is as of this moment at least seven months behind its proposed date to come online. It was expected to be completed by November this year. It won’t be; in fact it may not be completed for years.”
We were right.
This morning Bloomberg reported that – in the first very clear sign of huge storm clouds gathering for the US data center rollout – Oracle had moved to shield itself from racking up expenses on its data center, by sending the project’s developer, a unit of Blue Owl Capital Inc., a notice citing “force majeure”, meaning the company had encountered conditions “beyond its contractual control” preventing it from proceeding as scheduled.
As Bloomberg explains the first shot across the data center bow, “rather than trying to walk away as the site’s main tenant, Oracle is attempting to put off payments should the data center dubbed Project Jupiter get derailed and fail to come online in 2028 as planned.” . . .
Companies only invoke force majeure to free themselves from contractual obligations when problems arise beyond their control – a recent such example was Qatar’s LNG plant telling its customers it can’t deliver the contracted product due to enemy action by Iran, which crippled the country’s LNG production for years. In this case, Oracle is seeking to assert its contractual position if the build out is delayed.
Still, Bloomberg cautions, it’s not certain that such a maneuver would free Oracle from its previously agreed financial obligations.
Translation: the construction delays – which will only get worse if Democrats win back the house at the midterm elections – have blown up the project’s scheduled rollout, are wreaking havoc on the data center’s budget revenues, and even the extremely levered company that is supposed to be the data center’s core tenant, Oracle, is no longer confident it will be able to fund its contractual obligations. . . .
Well, and this goes without saying, if Oracle was so confident in the “path forward” it wouldn’t be advising its project developer it can’t be held to its contractual obligations!
. . .
And speaking of the energy needed to power the data center, here there are delays too: a key natural gas pipeline project developed by Energy Transfer LP that was supposed to begin service this month and supply fuel to Project Jupiter was instead delayed by at least six months to Feb. 1, 2027, following repeated permit denials from the New Mexico State Land Office to approve a proposed route for the line. Project Jupiter is designed to be powered by gas-powered fuel cells from Bloom Energy (whose stock is also sliding on the news).
False promises are piling up. Investing has become a chase for an illusion of growth:
“Tatra Banka’s DDS (supplementary pension company) recently had as much as a quarter of its portfolio invested in gold. This is an unconventional approach for a third-pillar fund, especially given the popularity of index funds.
“Our position is always reactive. We respond to market developments and adjust the portfolio accordingly. Gold was a typical example,” says Májek. “We shift into markets that tend to grow—whether it’s gold, stocks, commodities, or bonds,” explains Michal MÁJEK in an interview with INDEX.”
“Current estimates suggest that even combining the first and second pillars won’t be enough for a decent retirement. Contributions to the second pillar have been declining in recent years, so even though the returns are decent, they’re based on a lower amount. It’s therefore essential to save for retirement in the third pillar as well.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/manazer-tretieho-piliera-etf-ani-podielove-fondy-nepokladam-za-uplne-vhodne-na-dochodkove-sporenie
Under pressure from Chinese competition, people are being pushed to perform at high levels, like engines being boosted for maximum output:
“ANALYSIS: The second China shock is also hitting Slovakia. European factories are being squeezed from two sides.
China is no longer selling Europe just cheap goods; it is increasingly taking away its export markets, controlling strategic raw materials, and hitting hardest where industry forms the backbone of the economy.”
Translated by DeepL.
https://hnonline.sk/finweb/komentare-a-analyzy/96303787-analuza-druhy-cinsky-sok-mieri-aj-na-slovensko-europske-fabriky-dostavaju-uder-z-dvoch-stran
Managers try to make the system work, any way that they can.
Instead of a complete chaos, I am leaning more to Eastern Despotism.
I have said quite a few times that China in 1910 was little different from China in 910, except there were some more English signs in 1910 than in 910.
What will probably happen is the current elites of various country will choose to coexist, some rogues like the Houthis ignored or co-opted in time, and today’s elites will continue to remain elites basically forever, everyone else ground to dust.
Things will get progressively worse, and there will be unrest which will be quickly quelled and not make news anywhere. But BAU mostly survives in the advanced zones of the world, the rest of world slowly falling back to the 19th century.
Those with land will be king, and the poor will continue to move to the megaslums as the countryside become bandit country, with local lords setting up toll booths every mile.
Agriculture is dead without the machines and the inputs. The state intervenes to keep prices low.
Shepherds in Ruthenia, Czechoslovakia 1920s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QHzDu9rPqCQ
(clips of Slovakia around this period is hard to find. I think it was part of Slovakia back then, although it is now part of Ukraine)
Farming in Bohemia, 1947 (it says Bohemian plains)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PwPsHgyw-Q4
Hungarian farms , 1930s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXLtFmra4Tk
Farm in Poland, around 1960
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4D2T7j1HkU
Not one machine in sight
Soils are depleted, including pastures. Climate change makes everything worse. You need new varieties that can adapt to changing conditions. There are new pests. Food needs to be transported and stored, often in large quantities to feed large and ageing populations. People also need varied nutrition to address different health needs.
Everything is becoming more complex and demanding.
That’s what Fast Eddy wrote here many times before…
Fast Eddy (Gail too, from I recall) have attempted to grow food themselves and I did myself….it’s a challenge and I’m amazed at the bounty we in the “advanced” nations have at our stores at very inexpensive (for the time being) prices.
Permaculturist, Peter Bane, called this the “Age of Plenty”, while very temporary in comparison to most of the past ages of humankind.
Remember, even today, most of humanity lives in scarcity and goes barefoot….dear me…
The reason I couldn’t grow things is because I tried to see what I could do without the use of fossil fuels. The answer is, “Not much.” There are devices and products of all kinds that I could perhaps have used. But the critters in my neighborhood have been too much for me. If I could grow food, storing out of season food would be a huge problem, as well.
Same here too, Gail….I did find some things that were prolific, line Swiss Chard, Zucchini,
Okra, tomato, and the like…nothing to really survive on. Need grains, and like you mentioned storage and the pests and critters are a problem. I know Fast Eddy gave up in a hurry
On my journey to Montana we got routed off the interstate due to a wreck and hazardous spill. This was in Iowa/northern Missouri. ..wheat/corn country. As we waited along farm field on some rural hwy, I noticed foxtail weed everywhere but the corn fields. Same weed I am trying to eliminate on my place. It will not take long, but weeds will take over big ag when it becomes too costly to use herbicides or too costly to buy diesel to spray them. Get ready for the weed apocalypse.
You may be correct.
Society is too complex in the industrial and global age to degrade slowly. In fact, what we’re living right now, since 2008 (and even before, since the 70s) already is the degradation. What awaits us is something far worse.
It is just propping up a crumbling system.
The system is already pushing the world toward reorganization in a different way that uses diesel and jet fuel more sparingly, because of high prices.
Agenda 2030
“Schrodinger’s Oil Trades
Every idiot equity trader in the world is focused on random AI safety propaganda. Every commodity trader is freaking out about the east/ west pipeline. Nobody has even noticed the largest tariff regulation in history is about to become law. 100% tariffs on China, India, and Turkey. If they don’t make exceptions for refined products, the US runs out of gasoline/ octanes. That’s not an exaggeration.”?
https://x.com/SchrodingersAlt/status/2099680366499926468?s=20
I understand that there has been a two month extension of the trade truce with China, until January 10.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/way-shorter-beijing-hoped-china-stocks-tumble-trade-truce-disappoints
Perhaps something broader could be worked out.
Not important . The Chinese just delay or reject applications for the export of rare earths on flimsy grounds . CCP calls the shots and not any trade truce . Nothing broader can be worked out until Washington changes it’s attitude .
Rumor: GOP to consider the National Fuel Crisis an NEA. May force businesses to “stay/work from home.”
“Before I’m lynched for this, because it is a rumor and there is a 99% chance I’ll be wrong… my source is from “the inner circle.” THIS IS NOT approved or VERIFIED. I just heard it from a verifiable source.
doing so primarily unlocks specific statutory powers to bypass regulatory hurdles, expedite energy infrastructure, and divert federal funds that wouldn’t have been otherwise allowed.
It gives the federal government the uncontested right to subsidize the oil majors and refiners, which may coerce them to reduce exports. Hence, “voluntarily cooperative cap” vs. “diesel export ban.” A workaround that would keep the government on the legal side, since an outright export ban would be an affront to capital-free markets.
It also allows the federal government legal means to subsidize and advise public and private businesses and employees to stay and work at home.
Once under an NEA, the president has the power to issue an executive order forcing all government employees to work from home.
Also under NEA, the federal government has the right to enact the Defense Production Act (DPA). The President could use the DPA to prioritize resource allocation. While they couldn’t force a tech company’s employees to stay home, they could restrict fuel allocations to non-essential industries forcing places of business to make employees then stay at home.
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1woq9ni/rumor_gop_to_consider_the_national_fuel_crisis_an/
Its a damned good theory.
Continuing staying at home sounds like a good policy for workers.
Encouraging something that allows the use of fewer school busses would help, also. Perhaps get rid of special school busses for special needs kids, or move to four-day-a-week school.
“outright export ban would be an affront to capital-free markets.”
Got to that point and realized its bullshit. Who even believes in free markets anymore other then someone trying to piss on your back and tell you its raining?
Top Trump allies are reportedly pushing Trump to declare martial law for the midterms to exert control over the elections.
https://x.com/factpostnews/status/2102789875401445525
The Democraps are foaming at the mouth saying, “just do it”. The Repubs are finished because of Trump. He set the party back, decades. They will continuosly point to all the money he made for himself and his buddies while in Office. They won’t let that go and the Democraps are not that much better. So grab your popcorn.
I don’t think so. At most, there may be special poll watchers in a few places.
No matter how one votes, it is highly unlikely those votes can solve any of our issues; the problems are not voteable.
We have been very lucky these last years, somehow the problems were put off into the future. That future seems to be very close now.
Dennis L.
Thanks! I have heard that the best outcome is deadlock–nothing gets passed. Republicans and Democrats are fairly equal in votes. House and Senate are opposite parties.
Hi Denise , long time no see . For once I agree with you . Be well .
I have just finished reading an article entitled Hubbert’s Prescription for Survival A Steady State Economy and that article showed me that we must be heading into the steady economy which means this is all beyond any one’s control we can vote any party in but the industrial production of the world will steal reach limits so it essentially means everything will collapse very soon and will be permanent so don’t worry about all the talking heads out there they are probably clueless about what’s happening even the war’s and high interest rates would be temporary so brace for impact.
This is a link to the 1995 article.
https://jayhansonsdieoff.net/hubberts-prescription-for-survival-a-steady-state-economy/
I suspect that Hubbert didn’t realize that population keeps rising. This is a major issue. It is related to man’s control of fire. If there is no use of fossil fuels, and minerals are used only at the rate that they naturally replenish (which is very, very slow), then perhaps an economy could continue without overshoot and collapse. But humans would remain at the level of hunter-gatherers forever. There would be no evolution, because that requires survival of the best adapted, and the latter requires quite a few of the offspring to die.
” For most of human history the population doubled only once every 32,000 years. Now it’s down to 35 years. That is dangerous. No biologic population can double more that a few times without getting seriously out of bounds. I think the world is seriously overpopulated right now. There can be no possible solutions to the world’s problems that do not involve stabilization of the world’s population.”
These are a couple of population charts I made:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-Population-divided-between-Advanced-Countries-and-Others.png
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/World-population-in-millions-to-2026.png
” We have, he says, the necessary technology. All we have to do is completely overhaul our culture and find an alternative to money.”
Promises of future goods on clay tablets seemed to work before money. A market can create its own trading medium.
Cannibalism.
Treasury value has always been collateral not yield. As rates rise collateral is worth less. Things are real popular when they are cheap. Not so much when they are expensive. This includes cash. There’s a lot more demand for collateral that lets you access cheap cash than collateral that lets you access expensive cash. But if AI is paying 9 and you don’t want collateral for expensive money all of a sudden treasuries transform. They are no longer being sold as collateral but yield bearing instruments.
Doom is not dramatic during stagflation. You just slowly sink in the mud.
Wow collateral and 5 percent to boot. Such a deal! Not.
The real collateral has always been oil. Petro treasuries.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-crash-most-liberation-day-after-catastrophic-5y-auction-2nd-biggest-tail-record
Hey man, I agreed not to post if you can find what you claim I said. Maybe you can now agree to the same – don’t post unless you find support for your accusation 🙂
It was a strange demand.
You apparently disrespected women’s reproductive health and my first thought was, you have been designated OFW’s official Muslim*.
Stranger still, it all started with a drive by accusation, from a name I don’t remember ever seeing here before, but very quickly we had a “you did, you did” followed by demands that no one but Gail has a right to make(that includes you, although I’d hope you are just returning the unacceptable).
All looked like a set up to me.
Now I’ve wrote the above, you had better be correct.
Which one of you has their strategy right?
https://youtu.be/f3pAbhuTJ44?si=adKeriP0IO7lx72C
*Muslim. It’s like all the people that moan about women wearing the hijab, but don’t bat an eyelid when those same women(and their children) are bombed.
“disrespected women’s health” – WHAT? What on earth are you talking about. Please take your meds.
Sorry, I misread your statement as you piling on to dog’s misguided nonsense.
That’s fair enough but Gail asked to drop it. You are asking I find the post?
Yeah, back it up.
I looked for a couple hours I could not find it.
I know what you posted
You know what you posted
Per our agreement I will not post again
You can post, I won’t hold you to it, just how about in the future please limit the animus and accusations to things you have proof of. I think you misunderstood my past arguments – I’ve made various statements, some of which might seem to contradict one another, but they don’t if you appreciate the nuance. For example:
* the jab group had 50% more deaths than the control arm, in the study that led to approval
* no large/visible die-off of humanity or decline in overall birth rates from data that I’ve seen
* jab has high uptake in liver, spleen, ovaries
* jab results in more than 30% loss of eggs in mice
* most people seem unaffected – coworkers, family etc that have taken it
Banks have problems, too, when interest rates rise.
yeah, well cash is not much use as collateral. Treasuries need a positive yield curve, too.
At 5.11%pa yield there must be margin calls for more collateral going out all over the place this evening. One thing, though, at higher yields surely Treasuries would be more attractive as collateral – cheaper to buy and less downside. And as yields fall (eventually) borrowing capacity increases, no?
FIND THE MOST DANGEROUS WEAPON IN THIS ARMOURY.
It’s not Brent at $103.91.
It’s not USD/INR near 96.
It’s not India VIX +10.87%.
It’s not even the U.S. 10Y above 5.11%.
☠️ IT’S THE U.S. 30-YEAR YIELD AT 5.415% — A 52-WEEK HIGH.
https://x.com/AlgoBoffin/status/2103016362159517971/photo/1
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/23/bond-bloodbath-treasury-10-year-yield-spikes-13-basis-points-breaks-out-hits-5-10-after-hot-pmis-with-inflation-written-all-over/
Bond blood bath ?
The bound buyback didn’t go well today either:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bessent-plays-hardball-bloomberg-bros-yields-spike-treasury-accepts-just-68-maximum-buyback
Cheaper public transport tickets in Slovakia
“Fico announced measures to combat high gas prices. Gas prices will drop by up to half, and a cap on margins will be introduced
While other European countries have opted to lower excise taxes or introduce special levies, Slovakia is taking a different approach to combat high gas prices. Robert Fico’s cabinet (Smer) has decided that, instead of lower prices at the pump, Slovaks will receive discounts on train fares, commuter buses, and public transportation.”
https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/ekonomika/clanok/2046291-vlada-predstavila-plan-boja-proti-drahym-palivam-dockame-sa-lacnejsich-vlakov-a-mhd-rafineriam-skrtnu-marze
That is an interesting approach, if seats are available on public transport.
Does anyone have any forecast about the possibility of a Trump’s ban on diesel export?
And, if so, what will be the consequences?
Thanks
No diesel = no trucks and no cargo ships = no logistics
These are big problems.
The White House is preparing a 90-day diesel export ban, and US diesel futures are crashing nearly 6%.
Welcome to a world where the so-called leader of the free market turns protectionist the moment energy stress shows up.
Energy markets are now heading toward fragmentation.
The US will try to suppress domestic diesel prices by keeping supply at home, while Europe and Australia face the prospect of severe supply stress and soaring fuel prices.
One market, two completely different price realities.
When shortages hit, free-market principles are the first thing to go.
The US is exporting its energy crisis to the rest of the world, but it cannot make the global shortage disappear.
https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2102804764912472259/photo/1
Trump’s Fuel Export Ban Threat Sends European Diesel Soaring .
finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/trump-fuel-export-ban-threat-115119271.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIa1BvL9ru7NDVyF8DdtULtNSD5j4BbFShuZTnFUFzz3hGGQtxXOWGFGsxQ1HwWcTTk4lQSOf00gZYeWtg1J-Tk-FNgXFsjw1fztdaGdIQRXf7zV2ep7VCrCllSJASx045_zKO6UKapmwQRKlwwExHb9TV8PuIQkQjJKGWmgfJPe
Not a surprise!
Trump’s Fuel Export Ban Threat Sends European Diesel Soaring.
https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/trump-fuel-export-ban-threat-115119271.html
Europe and Australia have both shut down lots of refineries, probably for the Green cause. Let them sit tight while their lights go out. They deserve it.
The core is a good place to be. At least for now.
This is not the way to do things!
I wonder where the US plans to get all the fuel for its ships and bases around the world. It will have even more trouble with logistics than it does now.
Student , for you .
https://afpm.org/newsroom/blog/why-diesel-export-ban-would-backfire
According to the article:
1. Export bans reduce fuel production
If exports are banned, refiners cannot simply stockpile unlimited diesel. They would have to reduce production.
Because gasoline and diesel are produced together, producing less diesel also means producing less gasoline.
Less fuel production means tighter supplies and higher prices for both diesel and gasoline.
2. Export bans weaken U.S. energy security
Many parts of the United States rely on imported gasoline and diesel because fuel produced in the U.S. cannot always be moved economically from where it is produced to where it is needed.
Removing U.S. diesel from global markets would tighten supplies and could increase costs for import-dependent regions like New England, especially as heating oil demand rises as the weather turns colder
3. Export bans help foreign competitors
The United States is a major supplier of fuel to allies in Europe and the Americas. If U.S. exports disappear, those countries will still need fuel. They will need to find it from other suppliers, creating opportunities for competing nations to expand their influence in global energy markets.
4. Export bans risk retaliation
Trading partners affected by a U.S. export ban could respond with restrictions of their own, making the United States more vulnerable to future supply disruptions.
Another one .
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/092326-diesel-export-ban-would-send-shockwaves-through-us-refining-system
There is now a battle between the oil industry that opposes the ban and the Republicans who go into the midterm want the ban . I think Trump will do the ban because it is politically convenient at this moment of time .
A ‘ban’, whatever form it takes, could be reversed quickly, just used for long enough to sucker the dumb US voters, surely?
We can see it’s still very useful that voters believe the fiction that they have serious influence on what are really global, structural, not domestic , affairs.
This article has many conclusions wrong about this current situation regarding a diesel export ban.
1) it will discourage fuel production….first, truckers are leaving loads right now rather than loose money. Farmers may have to let fields go unharvested. The diesel will be used. No production will be reduced.
2)Many parts of the United States rely on imported gasoline and diesel” This is because states like California regulate refineries out of existence, and then beg for cheap imports. Also, blue run states in the northeast refuse to allow gas and oil pipelines to be built, …cause their green…Also, the left eco maniacs have shut down new pipelines refusing to allow them to be built. These areas are already enforcing importation and not supporting “more production”.
This article is rubbish. We refine the oil here…we need the refined products here. We need the diesel in the US…Now. An export ban is necessary.
But we depend on imports from around the world. If the US gets a disproportionate amount, then countries, like Chili who needs it for its copper production, will get none.
Many thanks for info and links.
Top twenty diesel importers . France number 2 , Netherlands number 4 .
” Australia is uniquely exposed to this diesel price shock given our reliance on imported product which is by far the highest in the world, not as a % of GDP or per capita but outright. This comes as other countries have scaled back imports and Australia’s have accelerated due in part to refinery closures.”
https://x.com/IFM_Economist/status/2102966389946675697/photo/1
The U.S. exports diesel to over 60 different countries. That diesel is used to produce goods that the U.S. then imports. For example, U.S. diesel exports to Chile represents a large share of Chile’s domestic consumption. Chile is the world’s largest producer and exporter of copper. Cutting off diesel exports from the U.S. puts all these trade flows at risk.
https://x.com/T_Mason_H/status/2103129542000771229/photo/1
Cutting off diesel exports will lead to a huge mess. Let’s hope that some compromise can be reached.
Another way the Iran war is helping the US:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/lng-buyers-scramble-conflict-free-supplies-beyond-gulf-war-rejiggers-global-energy-flows
The latest EIA figures show that US LNG exports surged, averaging 17.4 billion cubic feet per day in the first half of 2026, up 23% from a year earlier. US exporters are helping replace disrupted Gulf supplies as the waters in the Gulf of America remain calm and commercial maritime traffic remains stable.
“Another way the Iran war is helping the U. s” 😂
US Purchasing Managers Index is showing large increases for the US. I would expect that this means that the war effort, plus all of the larger runs by refineries to offset the loss of refined fuel elsewhere, is helping the US economy grow. Also, all of the building of AI related structures is generating demand for materials of many kinds, and workers to build these structures.
In some ways, this increase in PMIs. But it is what leads Bessent and others to ask for higher interest rates in the future.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/10y-yield-spikes-above-500-after-blowout-beats-us-pmis
“Is the bubble about to burst? The number of properties for sale in the U.S. is rising rapidly, but there aren’t enough buyers
Are we on the brink of another global crisis? So far, there aren’t enough people who need to sell.
In Nashville, Miami, and Houston, there are currently more than two sellers for every homebuyer. And this isn’t limited to just a few troubled areas.
According to recent statistics, there are nearly 60 percent more sellers than buyers across the entire United States. This is the widest gap in the last thirteen years—in fact, the widest since records began. The situation is also drawing attention in the Czech Republic, as problems in the U.S. market have recently spilled over into the Czech market as well.
According to Redfin, the supply of homes is at its highest since the pandemic, while sales remain low. U.S. mortgage interest rates are rising.
Prices have not yet fallen significantly, but it is becoming clear—especially among developers—that the situation is shifting. Sellers are more frequently lowering prices or contributing toward buyers’ costs.
Both Money and Mortgages Have Become More Expensive
Expensive mortgages are the main drag on the U.S. real estate market. The average 30-year rate—the standard fixed-rate term in the U.S.—reached 7 percent in September. This is a huge difference compared to the era of cheap money. For a $350,000 mortgage, a 3 percent interest rate would result in a monthly payment of roughly $1,500. At today’s rate, it’s over $2,300.
As a result, some households cannot qualify for the necessary mortgage, while others are postponing their purchases. The number of sales of older homes fell by 2 percent month-over-month in August, and at the current pace, just under four million properties would be sold in a year. This is significantly less than before the pandemic, when more than five million properties were sold annually. Consequently, the number of people willing and able to close a deal has dropped significantly.
Meanwhile, the supply of homes is growing—in August, there were 1.62 million homes on the market, which is about 6 percent more than a year ago. At the current sales rate, it would take five months to sell them all.
The median home price in August fell by about 1.2 percent compared to July, but remained 1.6 percent higher year-over-year. However, if the August decline were to continue in the coming months, it would represent a 13.5 percent drop over the course of a year.
The month-over-month decline alone does not necessarily signal a market turnaround, as home prices typically weaken seasonally at the end of summer.
But cracks are visible beneath the surface. Roughly six out of ten homes are selling below the original asking price. In addition, buyers are more often receiving contributions toward repairs, costs associated with closing the transaction, or cheaper financing.
Part of this price reduction may therefore not be reflected in price indices. A home may formally sell for nearly the same amount as a year ago, but the seller returns several thousand dollars to the buyer in other ways.
Developers Are Already Cutting Prices
The pressure is even more evident in new construction. In September, 38 percent of U.S. builders reported that they had lowered prices. The average discount was around 6 percent.
Developers have a significant disadvantage compared to ordinary homeowners.”
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/uz-sa-to-lame-v-usa-rychlo-rastie-pocet-nehnutelnosti-na-predaj-kupujuci-chybaju
I have seen several similar stories in the US. This is a National Association of Realtors report. It is not very alarming.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/nar-existing-home-sales-report-shows-2-0-decrease-in-august
There are videos suggesting that in particular areas, such as parts of Florida, there are big cuts in prices. And there are issues regarding the mix of houses being sold.
Also, buy-downs in interest rates that are used to reduce monthly payments, seem to have become popular. They are not recorded in the home price. Also, extra fix up costs paid by the seller.
Thanks for sharing. I’m seeing alarming videos as well.
I think it will be like this for a long time. The 2008 model is very strong. Anyone who sold regretted it. There are still lots of ZIRP mortgages out there. Anyone with one of those will use the cheap equity to rent. Rents will come down. Gradually we will see what things are worth as people enter nursing homes or die and their heirs sell. We’re almost at 7.5 percent mortgage now. 10 year just broke 5. AI bonds will drive it higher.
The sellers don’t want to see it. They bought with cheap money and want the same price with real expensive money. It don’t work that way but they won’t see it so they hold and rent it out and have tenants do what tenants do. Their.cheap money competes with expensive money with rentals so it does ok.
The sellers living in ZIRP land forever is good for the banks and property taxes. And as we all now the dollar debases. Wait long enough and you will get your price in nominal terms. This is actually best case scenario. Prices must fall with higher interest rates but the ZIRP eternal crowd will let currency debasement do it not market panic
As the article mentions developers are hosed. Higher material and labor cost they must flip and they are competing with older cheaper money.
The AI build out is the catalyst this time not real estate.
France has authorised an extension of the summer diesel offer to make up for the shortage of the product caused by the ongoing wars (Ukraine and Iran).
Petrol stations will be responsible for dispensing the fuel and must explain to customers the risks they face.
The second link explains that filters can become clogged and the engine may seize up.
It is incredible that no mainstream Italian media outlet is reporting on this problem that is happening in France.
https://www.lefigaro.fr/conso/carburant-qu-est-ce-que-le-gazole-d-ete-dont-la-vente-vient-d-etre-prolongee-par-le-gouvernement-20260922
https://www.francesoir.fr/societe-economie/gazole-d-ete-jusqu-au-15-novembre-l-etat-colmate-une-penurie-que-vingt-ans-de
So France sells two types of diesel, usable to 0C and to -15C. Russia sells diesel down to -20C (summer) and down to -35C (winter). Difference is the accepted height in the distillation tower in the refinery. Savvy users can make summer diesel a bit more usable in winter by adding a bit of gasoline, say 5-10%. It is not profitable to make winter diesel more usable because it is generally more expensive, but a cheap fix for a trucker would be to buy vegetable oil, which is subsidized and therefore cheaper than diesel in Europe.
I got 1200 liters of diesel just today, 53 (!!!) rubles a liter. That is the same price as Oct. 2023. 78 at the pump, 65 was my last purchase, 77 my second to last. I am done buying it until March, except perhaps for a drum of winter diesel. Looks like some wholesalers got caught with their pants down. I really really doubt Trump is right about the diesel situation here. Gasoline is different.
Yes but you didn’t buy that at the pump. 🙂 score!
Plus, re. France:
A. The price set by TotalEnergies (petrol, diesel) is limited and fixed. —> Will empty the pumps faster.
google + trans:
Gasoline cap: Locked at 1.99 €/L across French stations.
Diesel cap: Set at 2.25 €/L in network stations.
Duration: Active as long as the Middle East geopolitical crisis continues.
B. A proposition to return to car owners the ‘surplus’ of the VAT tax on fuel(s). (Many European countries have high prices because TAX +++.) MSM. —> Sounds nutty to me and won’t ‘pass’ ? – but intersting as is a response to why we car owners pay so much tax !! as comp. to others, etc.
B II. In any case there is already funding and ‘help’ for car drivers who need to drive to get to work, for v. poor households, for truckers/truck cos., for medics who do home visits, and more. Some existed before and have been ‘upped.’
C. Also changes to chem. composition as ‘allowed’ of various fuels, Ex. allow more ‘biofuels’ (bioethanol) in the mix. I won’t go into that, it won’t help in the long run.
22 sept MSM
https://www.presse-citron.net/crise-du-carburant-les-5-mesures-choc-demandees-par-macron-pour-eviter-la-penurie/
official F. Gov com. 22 sept
https://www.publicsenat.fr/actualites/economie/annonce-du-gouvernement-sur-les-aides-au-carburant-qui-touchera-quoi
Recall, the Gilets Jaunes Movement 2018 was a revolt spurred by the price hikes in petrol – diesel. Many lower-middle class workers in F cannot live ‘in town’ or ‘nice areas’ or ‘close to work’ (public transport, close by amenities, etc.), they live in the periphery or far-out countryside, and cannot *survive* without a car (often 2) – essential to go to work, shop, bring kiddos to school, etc.
France, in its organisation of public transport, has always had an ‘elitist’ and ‘centrist’ oriented policy, in harmony with its hyper ‘central control’ (Paris, Gvmt) and the forging of its Nation by the ahem the ‘sword’, forcing ‘regions’ into one language, a national Education system, etc. etc.
Ireland fuel protests .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp5s89yRFH8&t=11s
Also
Quark
2h
Side effects.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2882440-german-1h-bitumen-output-cut-by-mideast-crude-shortfall?utm_source=google&utm_medium=ppc&utm_campaign=glo-argus-commodities-09-2023&utm_content=glo-argus-commodities-09-2023-google-ad&utm_term=argus
German bitumen production fell by around 16% year-on-year to 1.17 million tons in the first half of 2026, according to official data, due to a shortage of heavy crude oils ideal for producing this product for road paving.
Roadworks in Germany typically begin in April and pause for the summer holidays in August. Due to raw material shortages and volatile crude oil and fuel oil prices, the average price of bitumen in Germany reached €679/t ex-works in June, the highest recorded by Argus. Consequently, many paving contractors postponed planned road and construction projects until September. Paving activity was slow in September, but market participants reported that product availability improved significantly. Argus assessed the average price of bitumen in Germany, delivered by truck, at €539/t ex-works for the week ending September 18.
“German bitumen production fell by around 16% year-on-year to 1.17 million tons in the first half of 2026, according to official data, due to a shortage of heavy crude oils ideal for producing this product for road paving.”
People don’t realize the importance of bitumen, which is very heavy oil. With high enough prices, it can be “cracked” to make diesel and gasoline besides road paving materials.
“Outbound tanker traffic through Hormuz has fallen to almost nothing, and yet China — the world’s largest crude importer — is not the one panicking. It runs much of its supply through pipelines that no tanker rate can touch, and in August it pushed refined-fuel exports above pre-war levels, with jet fuel exports hitting an all-time high. The country that everyone predicted would be crippled by a Gulf shutdown is instead exporting fuel into the shortage, at its own discretion and on its own terms.
That is the shape of it. The world’s fuel crisis has three legs, not two: the crude that cannot leave the Gulf, the refineries that cannot run, and the ships that cannot get where they are needed at a price anyone can afford. The West is exposed on all three because it moves its energy over open water. China, having spent a decade laying pipe instead of chartering ships, is exposed on almost none of them. The freight market is not just repricing oil. It is repricing a strategy.“?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/heading-back-to-the-usa-where-diesel
I think at least some of the small ships were sunk. Larry Johnson says:
Oil shipping is measured in ton-miles: barrels multiplied by the distance they travel. The wars did not shrink the fleet; they lengthened every voyage. Tankers moving crude through Hormuz now spend extra days swapping cargoes off Oman. Others are sailing thousands of miles around Africa to lift in the Mediterranean. Asian refiners, cut off from Gulf barrels, have been reaching all the way to the Americas for replacements — the longest hauls on the map. And a vast shadow fleet is tied up hauling sanctioned Russian and Iranian crude to India and China on slow, roundabout routes. Every one of those detours keeps a ship at sea longer, which removes it from the pool available to everyone else. The fleet is the same size. The number of ships you can actually hire has collapsed.
Bill Gates described the coming years as “one of the most turbulent times in human history.”
https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/2102656306096287941
Bill has not yet clarified whether he has fully recovered from the sexually transmitted disease he contracted whilst visiting Epstein’s underage prostitutes, nor has he revealed how his wife is doing – to whom he secretly administered medication to cure her (having passed the disease on to her as well).
In my opinion, it would be better if he kept silence for a couple of decades.
Why would he hide away?
He is a shameless liar, so little clap wouldn’t really embarrass him – his money still guarantees deference all around him, from both equals and underlings.
I of course agree, it is all deeply disgusting. And designed to humiliate us.
There is a comment blocked. Strange, there are no bad words. Many thanks for unblocking it., if possible.
I’m in the UK and I now can’t comment on any Substack blog. I can see the front page of The Seneca Cliff, The Honest Sorcerer, Dr John Day, Sasha Latypova, etc, etc but I can’t get any further in. It must reflect our government’s wholehearted committment to free speech [sarc.]
I can still contribute to WordPress-based blogs, like this one.
Talking ‘of’ COVID & censorship, Professor Sucharit Bhakdi made this recent presentation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pUY99pbeXao
It seems a bit speculative to me. If Fast Eddy was still commenting here I expect he’d say it proves his case – those who took Gates’s magic potion will die earlier than expected but it’s a way to put us out of our misery before life as we know it collapses.
The days when you could do without a VPN are long gone.
Hear hear. Proton here I come, probably.
Bhakdi’s proposing that the jabbed may be suffering from myelin damage, and that this would somewhat account for the crazy behaviour of the past 5 years, as well as the uptick in neurological disorders. Is it leading to more neuro-degenerative diseases such as ALS or CJD? I don’t know….time will tell…
That’s curious, David: I just tried all of those blogs without any difficulties.
I do get some blocked content in terms of videos and images. The government cares so deeply for our sensitive minds which must be kept pure, of course.
Substack makes me very cautious because of the enormous amount of scripting required to function, not to mention the infinite popups.
After the containment forums 4chan and 8chan died, the latter never to return the former in a surveliance format, I’ve been wary of even reading these classes of media without high privacy settings. Some, like reddit are blocked by the lowest security settings I’m willing to use and so I just consider myself an outsider. There’s plenty of time wasting available elsewhere.
I have noticed how much slower substack is quite recently and also changes in their access for high privacy uses.
Pehaps it would be useful, David, to check your scripting permissions (usually and often quite inaccurately referred to as ad blockers rather than spyware blockers), and experiment with more liberal settings, if you’re willing
(Note–to get italics, you need lower case I, not upper case I) inside of pointed brackets. I fixed it for you.
Well well, dear little Bill speaking the truth for once!
If the Devil can quote Scripture now and then, as it is said, then why can’t something that isn’t a lie proceed from his lips?
Whatever next? Elon Musk making a prediction that comes true?
The issue is that we don’t have a good way to fix the turbulence. We are running into problems because there are too many people for resources, especially the heavy oil that makes diesel and jet fuel.
I really dislike this guy, however, I appreciate that he is speaking the truth versus a lot of the other elites (like Elon Musk) distracting us with all the AI BS.
Global oil and gas discoveries hit 40-year low on investment cutbacks
TOKYO — The number of new oil and gas field discoveries worldwide in 2025 fell to the lowest level in more than 40 years, with volumes at those fields falling to one-tenth of the 2013 peak, as reduced investment by global energy companies weighs on exploration activity.
The number of commercially significant discoveries in 2025 totaled 19, the lowest since comparable records began in 1980, according to data from U.S. nonprofit Global Energy Monitor compiled by Nikkei.
https://archive.is/20260921215532/https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/global-oil-and-gas-discoveries-hit-40-year-low-on-investment-cutbacks
Greta Thunberg approved of this message…
We’ll be just fine now, everything going according to plan
Greta Thunberg Is Taking Sweden to Court Over Climate Crisis Again
Her youth-led group has raised more than £180k to fund the lawsuit.
by Sophia Sheera
22 September 2026
Sweden, as a rich country with high historical and current emissions, has a legal duty to lead the climate transition,” the group wrote in its fundraiser. “A safe and just world is still possible, but only if rich, high-emitting states like Sweden stop violating their duty to protect people from the devastation of the climate crisis, and start transforming their societies before 2030.”
We know about a lot of heavy oil deposits, but we don’t have the means to extract such heavy oil profitably. If we could figure out a way to do this, it might fix our diesel and jet fuel shortage.
Looking for more deposits of conventional oil is more or less a waste of time and money. We have already found them.
Well I was wrong. Yanbu pipeline getting ready to flow. Tankers docked to get mothers milk.
I think this is use of DRA (drag reducing agents) and upstream pumps going balls to the walls to get it over the elevation hump and let gravity do the work not pump station rebuild .
Still spice gonna flow
https://x.com/EGYOSINT/status/2102361566976856242
We are saved! Houthi’s missiles have a range insufficient to bomb the pipeline. Oil will flow plentiful.
Perhaps Saudi Arabia’s income can now be above zero.
Well of course just like demonstrated I am sometimes Wrong I think I also may have been wrong on the zero revenue for Saudi. I’m actually starting to believe a significant amount is sneaking through Hormuz. The reason? Saudi must have revenue. No one is going to loan them a trillion and a half a year with no revenue. The tankers sneaking through demonstrate how desperate Saudi is for revenue.
For many years it has been postulated that the minority Wahhabi minority monarchy will fall if the social entitlements cease. Saudi has pensions and UBI albeit not very much. Perhaps more important is other wealth distribution in the region not just Saudi. If you are a citizen and willing they will pay for education in any oil related field even if their is no aptitude. If you manage to graduate you have what would be considered a very good job for life. This is the low income part of society. Labor below that is provided by foreign nationals.
None of this can continue without full revenue stream and deficit spending. IMO 20 percent of previous is not going to cut it. What’s going to happen? I don’t know but oil revenue has been the underlying provider of everything. I think the attempt for a 8 billion loan by Saudi a couple weeks ago with no takers is very telling. 8 billion is literally about two days of spending for Saudi. Is there anyone who knows more about this than me? At six months in Saudi cash reserves should have been gone long ago. Their spending has to fall to revenue
Pensions will not get paid. Oil engineers of all shapes and sizes will not get paid. Bangla and Paki deshstan labor won’t get paid. Cessation of those income streams is nontrivial matter for those families eking outa existence on them. Of course $100 oil helps here and $200 helps even more.
The world we live in has had a premise. Saudi can pump. IMO it’s really THE premises taken for granted since Saudi radically increased production ending the 70s stagflation crisis. Affordable and abundant oil doesn’t just make the Saudi economy it makes the world economy. You need infrastructure to pump. Blowing up all the infrastructure kicks the legs out from the legs out from under the world economy stool. I don’t find it plausible that this is a blunder or not understood. In regard to Saudi I’m thinking the crisis will manifest in financial and social structure problems. That’s why they are desperate enough to run the Hormuz gauntlet as crazy as it is. Even from the conventional stand point this war put Saudis existence at risk. Saudis existence has been the basis for many many things we take for granted not just running down to the quicky mart for a big gulp. Are we really to believe that this orange haired creature from planet Manhattan did this all on his own?
Mob could be right. It could all be a cover for depletion. There is no back to normal from depletion and that means there is no control.
I think that the depletion issue particularly affects the more viscous (or “heavier”) types of oil. The prices for heavier grades of crude has been lower than the price for lighter grades of crude oil. This needs to change, so that more diesel and jet fuel can be made.
It seems to me that the areas selling heavier crude (Middle East, Russia, Canada, Mexico) cannot get high enough prices to cover their increasingly high costs of extraction of crude oil. There might be more of similar heavy oil available if prices for such oil could rise higher, and stay higher, for longer. But it is likely to be a long path to getting relatively higher prices for heavy crude. So these countries have a problem now. They tend to be very irritable.
Saudi Arabia desperately needs oil revenue. It is its main source of taxes. It would like a very high price for Saudi’s oil exports.
I think there is a double problem in the Middle East:
1. Depletion
2. Too much other population to support. High taxes are needed. Make work projects are needed.
Mario Nawfal speculates without evidence that oil is getting out because Iran is letting it out in return for a cut from players desperate for revenue like the Saudis.
Interesting!
Only if they are following Iranian rules and so using Hormuz(no one is sneaking through), because they keep bombing Yemeni schools and there will be reprisals for the latest attacks.
https://english.masirahtv.net/post/58350/Armed-Forces-52-Saudi-Airstrikes%2C-Missile-Attacks-Recorded-in-24-Hours
President Pezeshkian sent an open message to the Saudi king, wishing them well on their national day and we should remember that the king had one of his sons travel to Tehran and personally deliver a very private letter, some months ago now. The king has already sacrificed one son, he’ll happily sacrifice another, if results stay negative.
I am afraid that Kevin Walmsley is right about how nuclear is going. This video is from May 7, 2026.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYsRCARkcNY
China and Russia are the world’s sole nuclear superpowers
The supply chains for nuclear energy, end-to-end, now run through China and Russia.
The BRICS countries dominate the mining and enrichment of uranium into reactor fuel, and North American and European utilities rely on imports of that fuel to power their economies.
China today is building more reactors than the rest of the world, combined, and while new plant construction has stalled across North America and Europe, China can develop 50 reactors simultaneously.
Russia and China are also the world’s leading exporters of reactors, which are electrifying new power grids across Asia, Africa, and South America.
TALES FROM EUROPE
This Bizarre Town is Stuck in 2 Countries!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-jWsMTtzek
==========================
Baarle-Hertog (Belgium) and Baarle-Nassau (Netherlands) form a complex border region featuring 22 Belgian enclaves situated within the Netherlands and eight Dutch counter-enclaves nested within those Belgian territories.
The arrangement consists of:
22 Belgian Enclaves: These are parcels of Belgian territory completely surrounded by the Netherlands, collectively forming the municipality of Baarle-Hertog.
7 Dutch Counter-Enclaves: These are Dutch territories (part of Baarle-Nassau) located inside the two largest Belgian enclaves (H1 and H8), creating an enclave-within-an-enclave structure.
1 Dutch Exclave: An eighth Dutch parcel (N8, Vossenberg) is located south of the main border, entirely within mainland Belgium.
This unique geopolitical puzzle, often described as “Europe in miniature,” results from medieval land swaps and feudal agreements that left borders unresolved, with international boundaries frequently running through private homes and businesses.
We need to send Gail there to sort things out. If Slovakia and Czechia managed to straighten out their border, so can Belgium and the Netherlands. 😉
I consider this subject to be of pretty low interest.
Beware the Jevons-Liebig trap
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2026/09/22/beware-the-jevons-liebig-trap/
The link ends,
Logically, given that there is no end to the growing shortage in sight, resisting the pressure to cut tax and duty while introducing early rationing by necessity would be the least damaging course of action. Unfortunately, it would also be the least popular for the politicians who have to take the decision. In practice, until the wider electorate is already materially impacted by diesel shortages, politicians will follow the path of least resistance and cut taxes on fuel. This is the Jevons horn of the government’s dilemma. The other is that, by the time the politicians make the decision to ration, some of the many inputs to our way of life will already be missing. This is the Liebig horn of the dilemma… we will only close the gate after the proverbial horse has bolted. At which point we will learn one of the crucial lessons of physics – without energy, things break down… mostly unpredictably.
I am not sure about this whole discussion. Rationing gasoline is difficult to do except by limiting purchases to some dollar amount.
Also, the UK government needs the taxes on gasoline at this point. It probably needs even more taxes than it is getting. And it will need taxes even more in the future, as the economy starts to fall apart.
Their plan is rationing a limit on the amount of fuel you can fill up with such as a maximum of 20 US dollars each time you fill up.
So lets say you wish to fill your car up you will have to go four to five times to fill up your car that will just take longer.
The plan is probably to help you think about acquiring an electric car.
All part of the plan to usher in the green transition.
The powers that be would have thought “how do we get the masses to want to buy an electric car”.
As a side note of interest I do believe the governments of the world would have heavily invested in rare earths.I actually overheard a conversation from a member of the public who was in the “know” that the Australian Government was heavily investing in rare earths from Canada.This can only mean one thing the powers that be are heavily invested in the green transition and its adoption by the masses.
rationing is the plan under a monetary set limit it may take 3 or 4 visits to the petrol station to fill up
Continuing problems in Libya.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Libyas-Largest-Oilfield-Hit-by-New-Armed-Group-Blockade.html
Crude oil production at Libya’s largest oilfield, Sharara, has slumped over the past day after an armed military group closed a valve on the pipeline that carries crude oil from the field to the Zawiya port for exports, in yet another global supply scare amid ongoing disruptions in the Middle East. . .
The Sharara oilfield is estimated to have produced about 340,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil before the incident.
Following the closure of the valve and the forced reduction of production, crude output at Sharara has now slumped to about 120,000 bpd, according to various estimates.
Subtraction gives a 220,000 barrel per day loss of oil to the international market.
Are they serious ?
BREAKING: Iran has now directly imposed a 20% cargo-value fine on vessels violating its Strait of Hormuz rules — meaning a VLCC carrying around $200 million of oil could face a $40 million fine, per Fars News. If just 10 vessels are fined every week, that’s $400 million a week — or roughly $20.8 billion a year.
Iran’s Parliament National Security Commission approved the provisions. Ships violating the rules can also be temporarily seized until the fine is paid, with specialized maritime courts set to enforce the rules.
$20.8 billion a year would be more than the entire annual revenue of some major technology companies — though it is only a hypothetical figure based on 10 maximum-value fines every week. For scale, Apple reported about $416 billion in FY2025 revenue, while NVIDIA reported about $216 billion. — FARS
We will see. Iran needs money. It will do whatever it can to get the money. There is lots of money to be made in the oil sector.
I expect if fines are as high as claimed, there will be very few of them.
France to give a subsidy of Eur 450 million to cushion high oil prices . Bankrupt nation .
https://tradersunion.com/news/financial-news/show/3437249-france-fuel-aid-expansion-price-pressure/
France is now considering lowering fuel-quality standards to increase diesel and jet-fuel production.
Macron has asked the European Commission to temporarily relax fuel-density, sulphur-content and biofuel-blending requirements.
French estimates suggest these changes could increase diesel and kerosene production by 5–20%.
Think about what this means.
Governments are moving beyond subsidising expensive fuel and releasing strategic reserves.
They are now considering allowing lower-quality fuel, including fuel with potentially higher sulphur content, to extract more usable supply from existing refining capacity.
This comes with trade-offs: potentially higher emissions, reduced compatibility with certain engines and additional strain on emission-control systems.
Europe is considering compromising existing fuel-quality standards to increase physical supply.
That tells you how seriously the refined-fuel shortage is being treated.
https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2102427826242875398
Somehow, this doesn’t sound like such a bad trade off to me. Blending with biofuels is mostly an exercise in green washing. Biofuels take farmland that could be used for growing food.
Sulfur is a lubricant. If it gets out onto farmland, it is a type of fertilizer. Sulfur compounds also assist with global dimming, to help keep world temperatures down. To some extent, the recent spurt in temperature may be the result of trying to keep down emissions, including sulfur emissions. Leaving them in the air is not all bad.
Admittedly, today’s fancy engines are tuned for a very particular fuel, but it is doubtful that we can keep up this expensive exercise for the long-term. We need to reduce complexity. This issue may force the change.
That is called p*ssing into the fire
One bullet:
“France doubles fuel aid for high-mileage low-income commuters, expanding coverage to 5.5 million people and extending support for fuel-intensive sectors through December.”
This sounds like a silly exercise. Why should workers earning low incomes travel long distances? The situation is not likely to get better soon. And how are fuel-intensive sectors going to work any better in the future?
Trump at UNGA . Broken record . Useless . Won’t jawbone any market . Now back to my single malt .
He’s another Bush 43
Bush 43 was actually Cheney, who at least knew the rules of game
“Brazil’s geographical problem
Brazil has 8.5 million square kilometers, but almost nothing seems to be close to where it’s needed: most of the population lives near the coast, agricultural production has moved inland, water is concentrated in the Amazon, and ports are far from much of what we export.
The result is a country that needs to transport food, energy, water, internet, and people over enormous distances – while remaining far from the major centers of the world economy.”
https://youtu.be/KjVCEC7MPAY?si=qyY1PJPA7ZY7Cbrb
This does sound like a problem.
“Unusual Aftermath of the Big “Show” in Trnava: Ronaldinho Grabbed the Money and Took Off
Brazilian soccer player Ronaldinho returned to Slovakia over the weekend, selling out Anton Malatinský Stadium during an exhibition match in Trnava.”
https://www.pravda.sk/sportweb/futbal/ostatne/clanok/2045865-zvlastne-dozvuky-velkej-trnavskej-sou-ronaldinho-zhrabol-peniaze-a-odfrcal-prec
MG , nothing new . Messi did the same in India last year . There is nothing new under the sun .😭
I’ll up the insanity ante.
Franco Colapinto(all heard of him?), a junior F1 driver, took an old F1 car on a tiny section of closed off road in Buenos Aires and over six hundred thousand turned out to witness, nothing.
People would flock to see a piece of rotting fruit, if it was promoted correctly.
Maybe they are suddenly beginning to feel some hidden shame about taking money from people who are falling into poverty — people who are basically just as poor as those in their own country?
Part of this is bullshit of course. The water is in the Amazon? Brazil has a huge river system covering all of it. At the opposite end of Brazil (south) there is a hydroelectric plant which is the largest in the world except for China. Do they truck the water there?
More accurately, the USA has prevented development of the whole continent. The distances are comparable to the US ones but the infrastructure is not there. With brazil coming under attack as early as next year as the last western hemisphere unconquered country I do not expect much development in the future either. I do think the US will try to shut down the transcontinental railway in fact.
The video provides a very good summary. The interior of Brazil was opened up and settled thanks to abundant, cheap energy. Sustaining human populations in areas that are too cold, too wet, or have poor soils requires additional energy inputs.
either theree is water everywhere or not. and i doubt that there are too cold areas.
Brazil has some very dry areas, such as the Nordeste, where water needs to be pumped.
This is crazy. You have never been there whereas I lived there 9 months. I assure you that in Fortaleza it rains most days during the wet season, in fact it rains there more than most of Europe.
The Sertao is semi-arid but it is like the savanna in the youtube videos with lions. There are trees for example. They need water to grow crops for export, but it’s not like they have to travel many miles. The Rio Francisco is right there and is immense because it starts from a wetter area.
It is a water situation that is much better than the american Southwest, which is fed by the pitiful Colorado, whose basin is all arid. But Brazil is somehow disfavored in comparison. We do not even count all the barges going up and down the Rio, saving a lot of fuel, whereas the Colorado has none.
There were very bad droughts in Nordeste, there is a danger of desert formation. The need for pumped water is clearly present there. This part of Brazil is drying up.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drought_in_Northeastern_Brazil
Hydroelectric tends to be very seasonal. It can provide good power for a few months of the year, and then provide very little. I don’t know the situation in Brazil. It is difficult to plan a factory around its output.
Just like solar in West Asia, demand and supply at itaipu rise and fall together. Sometimes humans are lucky. So there is that, and you can plan an industrial district so long as it does not exceed roughly 25% of demand.
There were talks about Agenda 2030 and all that, with humankind reaching the point of no return by that time.
Well, it will reach a point of no return by then, but not in a ways the cornucopians and other delusionists hoped for.
It will show a significant ‘readjustment’ of living standards for the not-exactly-worthy around the world.
The elites will hold on for some time, but eventually it will climb up.
Seems game is up
Good.
F’em all.
Entramos en terreno pantanoso.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/entramos-en-terreno-pantanoso?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=216873788&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Another post by Quark. Things are bad and getting worse!
We’re entering swampy territory.
Yes, it’s not just that certain gas stations in France are experiencing fuel shortages; inventories are accelerating their decline . They are already 100 million barrels below the seasonal minimum (onshore inventories ). [chart]
If the conflict continues, the current shortages will spread, especially of fuel. And now we’re no longer talking about the developing world, but the developed world.
The crisis is affecting the refining sector most severely, due to restrictions in the Middle East and limitations imposed in Russia as a result of Ukraine’s continued bombing of many Russian refineries. Although the rest of the sector is pushing its refining capacity to the limit, it is not enough to meet fuel demand.
Some are warning about unprecedented tension in the markets .
“ The scale of the disruption is something the market has never seen before,” says Janiv Shah of Rystad Energy. According to Argus Media, a fifth of global diesel shipments have simply disappeared .
The shortage has also reached aviation kerosene .
In Europe we are short 81 million liters of kerosene every day and we are traveling halfway around the world to find it. . .
And for European refineries, things get even more complicated with Saudi Arabia’s decision. It will not supply oil to the refineries next month.
“Aramco had already canceled and postponed the forward supply loading planned for the end of September for some European refineries, which had led forward customers to also prepare for possible disruptions in forward supply in October.
The region typically receives Saudi crude oil shipments of around 680,000 barrels per day on forward contracts .
Some things niggling me .
1 . The USA was to release 172 million barrels from the SPR , but the last release of 40 million barrels offered has no takers . Why ?
2 . US escorted vessels ? What is this ? There are no US navy ships in the Gulf or SoH area . They are 400 miles away from the coastline . So how is this escorting done ? Helicopters , I don’t think so . USAF ?? . The average speed of an oil tanker typically ranges from 13 to 17 knots (about 24 to 31 km/h or 15 to 20 mph) under normal operating conditions. So what the jets doing above the SoH ? Flying around in circles ? The flying speed of a fighter jet is Mach 0.85 (roughly 560–650 mph / 900–1,045 km/h), while their maximum top speeds typically range between Mach 1.6 and Mach 2.5 (1,200 to 1,900+ mph / 1,930 to 3,050+ km/h) depending on the specific model and mission load.
Makes me go— hmmm .
Good points. No one wants to try to repay barrels from the SPR with a 20% higher amount, without assurance that those barrels will actually be available at a fairly inexpensive price. Now, the future price could be quite high, and the barrels might not actually be available.
And it is hard to believe that US escorts are doing anything in the Gulf region.
What is the agreement under which an entity has to give back barrels taken from SPR.
Is there any source available explaining how this mechanism works?
Thanks
It is difficult to get a good description of terms. Apparently, the terms can vary by contract. This is an article I found from July 2026, discussing the SPR loans to Exxon and Chevron.
https://discoveryalert.com/strategic-petroleum-reserve-oil-loans-exxon-chevron-2026/
The borrowing company, whether Exxon, Marathon, BP, or Trafigura, is obligated to return the original volume of crude oil plus a premium of up to 24% in additional barrels. No dollars change hands. No congressional appropriation is required. The transaction is denominated entirely in physical barrels, which means the executive branch retains full operational authority over the programme without legislative oversight.
This structure is not a loophole. It is an intentional architectural feature. Because no funds are being appropriated and no market sale is occurring, the president and treasury and energy department can authorise these loans rapidly and without the delays inherent in congressional processes.
If the borrowing company thinks that prices are temporarily very high, and the prices will be much lower later, the company might be willing to borrow on this basis. But if lower prices later are not a certainty, they will not want to take a loan now.
The German solar giant Enerparc has applied for insolvency in Germany.
The company owns and operates more than 500 solar power plants.
What remains is a debt mountain of 33 billion kronor:
https://x.com/ChrisSandstrom/status/2101928009833820191/photo/1
Job cuts at Bosch: 13,000 jobs by 2030 – Works council demands “Made in EU” rules .
https://x.com/BlackoutNews_DE/status/2102037633551540377
Bosch is a very large company, making a wide range of products:
https://www.bosch.com/company/facts-and-figures/#business-sectors
1. Automotive devices
2. Industrial technology, including software solutions
3. Consumer goods, such as appliances of many kinds
4. Energy and building technology, such as heat pumps and water heaters
It clearly needs an adequate supply of inexpensive energy products, if it is to make products, especially for the European market.
I found this article:
https://energynewsbeat.com/bankruptcy/europes-largest-independent-solar-operator-just-declared-bankruptcy-the-filing-is-not-an-isolated-accident-it-is-a-market-signal/
The boom created its own insolvency machine
Germany has added wind and solar faster than grids, storage, and firm capacity can absorb. Renewables accounted for a record share of German electricity consumption in the first half of 2026—around 58 percent in mid-year reporting, with full-year 2025 generation already near 57 percent renewable. Solar generation has surged; in 2025, solar overtook lignite as a source of generation. The official target remains 80 percent renewable electricity by 2030.
Capacity growth has outrun grid expansion. Projects wait for connections. When the sun and wind arrive together, operators face curtailment. When they arrive in excess of demand, day-ahead prices go negative. Capture rates for solar have collapsed as midday oversupply becomes structural. New plants under the Solarspitzengesetz receive no compensation in negative-price intervals. Merchant and quasi-merchant economics that looked bankable during the 2022–23 price spike no longer do.
Later:
LCOE was never the right scoreboard
Levelized cost of electricity compares a plant’s lifetime costs to its lifetime kilowatt-hours as if every kilowatt-hour were equally valuable and as if the rest of the system were free. That was a tolerable shortcut when the grid was almost entirely dispatchable. It is a misleading metric at high wind and solar penetration.
What LCOE leaves out is now the main event:
Profile and cannibalization costs. Solar’s market value falls as more solar is added. Midday power is abundant and cheap; evening and winter power is scarce and expensive.
Balancing and backup. Gas plants, remaining coal, imports, and eventually hydrogen-ready units must sit ready for Dunkelflaute. Those plants need revenue when idle.
Transmission and distribution. North-to-south corridors, substations, and inverter-heavy grids are not free. Germany’s connection queues and the gap between Enerparc’s 5.5 GW installed and 3.8 GW connected are the physical proof.
Curtailment. Energy that is built but not delivered still carries capital cost.
Inertia, voltage, and frequency services. Inverter resources do not automatically provide the stability services synchronous machines provided as a byproduct.
System-LCOE and full-system cost studies for Germany have shown integration costs rising steeply with penetration. Wind and solar can look cheapest at the plant gate and expensive at the system boundary. If policymakers want a level playing field, the correction is straightforward: stop treating intermittency as an externality dumped on the grid and on taxpayers.
Charge wind and solar for the firming, network, and resiliency services they require. End production subsidies and hidden socializations. Let nuclear, gas with carbon costs, hydro, storage, and demand response compete on delivered, reliable megawatt-hours—not on a spreadsheet that assumes the rest of the fleet will always be there to clean up.
That is not an argument against solar. It is an argument against costing solar as if it were a coal plant with better press.
Conclusion:
Until LCOE is replaced with a full-system cost test, and until wind and solar pay for the grid resiliency they consume, Germany will keep adding nameplate capacity and subtracting industrial optionality.
The bankruptcy is a company event. The causes are policy.
I would add that EROEI was the metric used to try to show that wind and solar were useful. I objected strongly. The object was to compare apples to oranges: dispatch able power to power that needs a huge amount of support from the rest of the system. The energy cost of this huge amount of additional build-out was never considered in the EROEI calculation.
I have had a long-term argument with Prof. Charles Hall about this issue.
4000 jobs gone .
” Ineos pauses production at its three Hull plants, blaming UK gas prices ”
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ineos-pauses-production-three-hull-121419772.html
Ineos is a global chemical company. Your link says:
Ineos is one of the world’s largest chemical companies, producing raw materials used in products including pharmaceuticals, clothing and cosmetics, construction and military explosives.
I presume that the problem is high prices for natural gas. The article says:
Ineos is pausing production at its three plants in Hull, with billionaire owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe blaming higher UK gas prices for “destroying” its manufacturing base. . .
Sir Jim, its founder and chairman, said Ineos was “being forced to mothball some of the most efficient plants in Europe but with gas prices now 12 times the level in the US and eight times that of China, we just cannot compete”. . .
The UK is very short of natural gas. It depends on buying imported LNG, which has not been purchased ahead on contract. LNG is high cost to begin with. If there are disturbances in traffic routes, I expect it is even more expensive. And some Middle Eastern LNG is simply not available.
The USGC has hit minimum operational gasoline octane inventories. The largest gasoline blending terminal in the US is restricting movements that take tanks “off float” because their vapor recovery units are at max capacity because so many tanks are empty.
High octane blendstocks (xylenes) traded at November rbob +241 cents per gallon on Friday. These levels haven’t been seen since June 2022 and are the highest seasonal levels in history. We are probably 3 weeks away from running out of octanes in the USGC.
We are entering the endgame. It’s going to be incredibly fun to trade.
https://x.com/SchrodingersAlt/status/2102173615026213073
Polymarket pricing a 22% chance of a US diesel export ban .
Don’t say later ” I did not know” .
“Just ran this out of curiosity, and it was interesting. 4/8 lawmakers open to considering diesel export restrictions represent IA. They are simply expressing the pain of their constituency.
If only it were that simple…
https://x.com/LSREnergy/status/2102444570566946908/photo/1
”https://www.axios.com/2026/09/22/trump-diesel-exports-ban”
President Trump said during a Tuesday press interview alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that he has also called for a ban on U.S. diesel exports, joining other conservative voices who back the policy.
Why it matters: Trump’s endorsement marks a shift for an administration that has resisted calls to restrict fuel exports, as record diesel prices squeeze farmers and truckers and fuel Republican concerns ahead of the midterms.
Economists and energy analysts the move could lower diesel prices for Americ
Trump endorses a ban on diesel exports: “I’ve called for that too. I’ve said, let’s not send out the diesel.” (Trump has in fact called for other nations to buy energy from the US!)
But the lower price benefit would only be for a short time. Supply lines would break around the world, as other countries could not get their diesel. There would be fewer and fewer goods to import from overseas. The US would quickly need to make practically everything it uses. But we are missing many raw materials, and our energy supply is not sufficient to do this either.
USGC is a US government science organization.
Gasoline is made up of various compounds. The EIA says the following:
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/gasoline/octane-in-depth.php
The octane rating is the measure of fuel stability. The rating is based on the pressure at which a fuel spontaneously combusts (auto-ignite) in a testing engine. . .Of the 18 isomers of normal octane (C8H18), octane gets its name from the 2,2,4-Trimethylpentane compound, which is highly resistant to auto-ignition. This iso-octane has been assigned the reference value of 100 for testing purposes. The extremely unstable normal heptane (C7H16) molecule is the 0 octane reference fuel.
Regarding xylenes, I found:
https://www.xylol.com/xylene-as-a-gasoline-octane-booster.html
Xylol (xylene) is not only a solvent; it is also a fuel component, and it is one of the reasons pump gasoline resists knocking. As a member of the BTX aromatics family, xylene has a high octane rating, so refiners blend aromatics into gasoline to raise its octane number and keep engines running smoothly. It is a normal ingredient of the fuel most cars burn every day.
Octane, in this sense, is a measure of a fuel’s resistance to premature, uncontrolled combustion, the “knock” that hurts performance and can damage an engine. Aromatic hydrocarbons like xylene and toluene resist that early ignition well, so they act as octane boosters. When a refinery runs its aromatics units, part of the xylene stream that is not sent to make plastics goes into the gasoline pool, where it lifts octane alongside other high-octane blendstocks. This is why xylene sometimes shows up in the conversation around race fuels and octane additives.
I tried to figure out what is going wrong with xylene production, but I didn’t get a direct answer. This is one site with respect to xylene production, but it is mostly behind a paywall.
https://www.price-watch.ai/gio/xylene-plant-tracker/
A good video of Alaister Cooke explaining KSA .
Ravi, thanks for the updates.
Interesting. Saudi Arabia is failing fast. It has no cash to pay anyone, including mercenary army members. Houthis have effectively defeated Saudi Arabia. Israel was counting on Saudi Arabia to help counter Iran.
This is a link to Alastair Cooks Substack site:
https://conflictsforum.substack.com
Trump doing the moron and or depopulation thing again. USA gets 80 percent of its Potash from Canada. It’s kind of convenient geographically. But the hero of Hormuz is feuding with Canada or pretending to. And he has turned the tables on them once again. He is going to get our potash from Belarus that clever negotiator. Yup right from the edge of the war. Trump should start sending his sons to negotiate these things like Biden sent Hunter. Ha ha Canada eat your heart out. We keep our dollars and you keep your silly potash that we must have to grow food. Losers! Another stunning depopulation win from Trump! He sure was right. So much winning. Did you imagine this much winning? Me neither.
https://x.com/aj_geo_analysis/status/2102131645776060862
I’m surprised more is not being made these days of Nixon’s madman strategy.
Nixon, Kissinger, and the Madman Strategy during Vietnam War
Washington, D.C., May 29, 2015 — President Richard Nixon and his national security adviser Henry Kissinger believed they could compel “the other side” to back down during crises in the Middle East and Vietnam by “push[ing] so many chips into the pot” that Nixon would seem ‘crazy’ enough to “go much further,” according to newly declassified documents published today by the National Security ….
… Nixon’s strategy was to make “the other side … think we might be ‘crazy’ and might really go much further” — Nixon’s Madman Theory notion of intimidating adversaries such as North Vietnam and the Soviet Union to bend them to Washington’s will in diplomatic negotiations.
the plot line, all the way back to Caligula and probably further, all sounds so familiar
link:
https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb517-Nixon-Kissinger-and-the-Madman-Strategy-during-Vietnam-War/
The madman strategy is often implemented in really bad neighborhoods or in jails and prisons. The madman is mad in two different ways. He has no concern for consequences to himself. He has no concern for consequences for others. This allows him the full power of destruction albeit briefly.
Since it is understood that it will be brief the madman behavior is limited in scope. It is far better if you can just signal ” I am mad”. The trouble is the signaling has a mixed message because if one is truly mad why signal?
This behavior is noted in animal behavior also.
In humans this is a development process of self choosing. The human wants to be mad because of notions they have developed about destruction as a force that will allow goals to be achieved. In the criminal justice system escalation of punishment often helps in this endeavor. First juvenile incarceration then low security then medium security then finally high security each with a higher level of violence. In family’s that are multi generational criminal often gang this is regarded as a educational process. Madness is cultivated. Each correctional facility is regarded as a challenge and a aid in reaching the goal of madness. Humans may wish to have others fear them but only being truly mad allows that. Pretending is ineffective.
This becomes a problem for criminals because they truly have achieved their goal. They are dangerous have no regard for suffering or consequences and project that just as they desired. The problem is their victims feel the same madness they project and it warns them. The madman tries to act to hide it but they have literally transformed themselves into a organic madness projector. In fact practicing their criminality largely becomes methods of reassuring and masking their projection from their victims.
The dilemma of practicing madness to exert power is multifaceted. In the beginning as the human is not satisfied with how mad they are. They wish to be more mad. But as they achieve their goal they must live with what they have transformed themselves into. Typically this not regret or latent compassion those are actually gone via practice. Nevertheless it seems this is not a healthy condition for a human problems both mental and physical arise along with the problems of cloaking what they have transformed themselves into. I have often wondered if the mental degradation we witnessed in Biden and now Trump are the result of what they chose to become. The price paid to wield madness is not unsubstantial.
Putting it more simply, it’s a useful tactic at times.
I once, as an experiment, walked through a nasty neighbourhood in London, dressed in such a way that I could be reasonably suspected of being ‘mad’, maybe on drugs, unpredictable,and also possibly armed.
Even the big gang members gave me a wide berth in the street. They want unnecessary trouble just as little as anyone else, just as lions don’t want to get bitten by mangy hyenas.
Normal people looked very wary.
This disguise was far more protective and intimidating than, say, walking about in ‘tactical’ camo and mirror shades like a special forces wannabe.
Reason it out Xavier. Behavior is adopted to create fear. That behavior is observed and the intent noted. If you get away with it it means territory was not protected and weakness was demonstrated. Creating fear is a poor tactic in habitat where real monsters are about because they must respond to your threat. Even the demand for neutrality from a outsider is regarded as a domination in those habitats.
Acting only goes so far. I would argue in a truly bad neighborhood you didn’t fool anyone. King kong himself will be challenged if he is a outsider. He has to be. You can’t have a learning facility without testing. These neighborhoods are extensions of correctional facility society. Lone cowboys are a threat to the structure of the society itself. Everyone must be defined in pack hiarchy. You see this in dogs often. Until who is dominant is fully established they fight. After it’s established they can hang out.
I tread on others turf very lightly. One of the most vital security practices is showing respect for your own environment. Which is not to say what I describe above a prison outside a prison is desirable in the least. But if you don’t respect your environment why should others? It in itself is not a end all but it is the beginning. Respecting my environment and community is much more desirable signalling than creating fear for me. Environment is easier than community. You will get no where in community without demonstrating respect for personal environment.
If social structure falls apart very little security is possible. Robust social structures with inherent comanality are desirable.
So what was the outfit? 🙂
This is an interesting insight:
“Humans may wish to have others fear them but only being truly mad allows that. Pretending is ineffective.”
The self-organizing system seems to select for leaders that can go in a direction that would seem to most of us to be in a direction that only a mad man would follow.
I voted for Stein even though I despise communism. She was the only one trustworthy emotionally and intellectually. It was a safe bet because she had no chance of winning. Zero chance of buyers remorse.
Trumps nature has been called “mercurial”. ” You never know what he will do” has been billed as a positive. Like many I hoped this meant he would say no to stupid or insane actions.
Common sense saying no is wise. Your rolling with some people and they want to do something stupid you part ways immediately. Your girlfriend is mad and starts driving crazy you get out of the car at the light. This is like adolescent growing up time frame wisdom.
This sort of “you never know what he will do” would have been most welcome. Alliance that radically work against your best interest should be abandoned. Actions that represented the people of the USA and the world best interests would have been welcomed. Instead consistently Trump’s behavior has been the exact opposite. And somehow this erratic behavior that harms the economy, and the people 9 times out of 10 is still being spun as a positive because it’s erratic.
Erratic behavior is not strength. Erratic behavior destroys trust and relationships. Trust and relationships with other nations is in the best interest of the USA. That doesn’t mean we jump off a cliff with them if they think it’s a good idea.
Strength is saying no I’m not going to jump off a cliff. That helps everyone including those that want to jump. What being framed as a positive with Trump is saying he might jump off a cliff on a whim. And he has. And he probably will do it some more. I’m not the only one with this perspective. He clearly is not acting in the interest of the USA.
What is framed as a strength in Trump’s character is destructive. This idea that actions arbitrary in nature are beneficial because they create fear is deeply flawed. Exceptionalism is deeply flawed tactically and spiritually. It’s exactly the same as a criminal exalting in his ability to destroy at will and exploit the creation of fear.
The new team comes in and we go in with the neo liberals with war with Russia. Trump has not saved us from that. And then we get to have half of Iran migrate to the USA with the flip. Because Trump’s bad. That means Iran is good right? Besties. Meet your new neighbors. Trump was erratic. We are not. Russia bad. Off to the meat grinder with you.
Exceptionalism never ceases. It only grows. Back and forth. It doesn’t matter which team is in exceptionalism grows. They spring board off each other. The others faults their springboard for their exceptionalism.
As Latin used to say ‘nomen, omen’.
In my view, it is not always true, but sometimes it gives a clue about the heritage of the meaning of a certain surname.
Of course people who inherit it may have nothing to do with that meaning, yet sometimes it remains a distinctive cultural trait of a particular family.
‘Play trump card’ in this case may have been stretched to bluff.
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/play+trump+card
https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/bluff
Interesting observation.
Acting like playing cards. Bluffing quite often. Waiting to use the hidden Trump card.
I feel that those who select such mere puppets as Trump are rather attracted to such word games.
Trump does indeed immediately bring card games to mind.
It’s all a game.
But a serious one, in which millions die.
Interesting! Those of us who do not follow history closely have missed these things.
The link says,
Trump is bluffing here too.
I have done hundreds of supply chain strategic planning reviews and risk assessments across much of Europe for a few years. His new workaround Canadian Potash is not feasible.
The paperwork and the administration to ship in and out of Europe such sensitive product is NOT easy, compound that with the fact that you are buying from Belarus who is sanctioned by the European Union, it means you CANNOT ship by land through Europe because no one wants to work with or touch such products, so you will then have to have it shipped through Russia.
A different escalation:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/bessent-declares-all-iran-airlines-be-shut-down-around-world-wednesday
Bessent Declares All Iran Airlines To Be ‘Shut Down Around The World’ Wednesday
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declared on Monday that by Wednesday Sept. 23, “all the Iranian airlines will be shut down around the world.”
“If they land, you cannot provide them with fuel, you cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system,” he described.
[video]
The new warning and ‘promise’ was issued after the US earlier this month imposed sanctions on “all remaining Iranian airlines” which had yet to face such penalties – thus Bessent’s new declaration is that these entities are about to collapse under the weight of Washington actions, which now is to include secondary targeting.
Is that all Bessent has left?
It’s a weak threat and announcing it the day that Araghchi lands in New York and the day before Pezeshkian arrives is just embarrassing, unless they now plan to take the PM and FM hostage(confirming their weak hand).
Meanwhile, Jordan and Saudi are slowly marginalising the western puppets, readying for the final push.
https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/age-of-resurgence
Will map lines in the region be returning back to before white genocide turned up. The king is under pressure as the strategy plays out and some seem blissfully unaware of what’s coming
https://youtu.be/shRK93_x6s0?si=OFUdHJaVE33ymiQE
Bessent is being awfully testicular these days: is h the new US Defence Secretary?
I thought he was just a gay ex-hedge funder, my mistake!
This really does get more comical every day, this End of the World thingy.
He’s not your average gay hedge-fund guy, apparently.
https://x.com/leahfiles/status/2092324409243476117
This is part of the link you provided:
In August 2024, a hacker group called Handala breached the personal email of Ehud Barak, the former Prime Minister of Israel. Barak was one of Epstein’s closest associates.
Those emails were published by Distributed Denial of Secrets. Journalists Jack Poulson and Harrison Berger spent months going through them. What they found was a direct financial relationship between Ehud Barak and Scott Bessent, the man who is now running the United States Treasury.
Here is what the emails show:
Underlying issue: Renters can’t afford the increases in rent that passing along the impact of higher interest rates would cause.
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/apartment-landlords-have-a-2-trillion-debt-problem-that-is-only-getting-worse-6a096162
Apartment Landlords Have a $2 Trillion Debt Problem That Is Only Getting Worse
Property investors borrowed record sums at historically low rates. As the bill comes due and interest rates rise, ‘the chickens are coming home to roost.’
For years, debt-saddled investors have survived on lenders’ willingness to extend the life of the loans. Creditors and borrowers hoped that rent growth would rebound, the Federal Reserve would cut rates and lenders would get their money back.
That hasn’t worked out, and lenders’ patience is running dry.
“Lenders have gotten a lot more aggressive,” said Ryan Cotton, Bain Capital’s head of real estate. “That could lead to some real turbulence as you see distress start to manifest.”
Creditors were already putting pressure on smaller firms that have been struggling with this historic debt balance. But now, even real estate’s biggest investors aren’t immune from rising rates.
In Yemen. First, many of the world’s armies are fictitious. Initially, some exist only on paper; the soldiers are listed on the rosters, but they don’t actually exist. The officers in charge pocket the pay. Second, many armies of wealthy Arab countries are composed of foreign mercenaries, whose incentive to risk their lives for a country of which they are not citizens is very low.
https://lachute.over-blog.com/2026/09/plaisanteries-militaires.html
Interesting!
USA forgot its roots.
During the US war of independence against Britain, the latter did not send too many soldiers of their own.
Instead, the Crown hired 30,000 troops from the Prince of Hesse, who was the Prigozhin of the era. Called the Hessians, they fought with lower morale, since they had no bone against USA.
USA recruited von Steuben, who fought for Friedrich the Great , to deal with them and was kinda successful. After the war most returned to Hesse but some stayed and joined the lower classes of USA.
Few people now have heard of the Hessians, no different from the mostly Syrian and African mercernaries of the Sheikdoms who have no beef against the Houthis.
The old problem with mercenaries: your own people are soft, fat and lazy, and probably treacherous, so you hire mercenaries who are keen on the money, but no more eager to die.
The Romans found that Germanic warriors would follow through on their oaths, and also the wild Basques, who just loved killing and scared everyone.
What does 9 percent yield on a three year tell you about risk? But most don’t see risk with AI related bonds and these rates will compete to a extent with treasuries. Certainly from a volume perspective they already do.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/softbank-sell-11-billion-junk-bonds-soaring-yields-fund-openai-investments
Thanks for the link. This is truly a disturbing article.
Softbank is trying to fund OpenAI with bond revenue. Softbank is a Japanese bank. The funding is to be in either US$ or Euros. A chart shows that the expected interest rate is to be as high as 9%, (or perhaps even 10% on longer length bonds), for US bonds.
This is a huge offering. The article makes the point: “In short, if OpenAi goes down it is absolutely dragging SoftBank with it.” Ouch!
They are all in trouble . Google,Meta etc all of them .
” Oracle Downgraded to BBB-, Yields as High as 7.8%: Is it an Opportunity or a Warning Sign ”
https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/article-detail/oracle-downgraded-to-bbb-yields-as-high-as-7-8-is-it-an-opportunity-or-a-warning-sign-RSS380
And yet the stock prices seem to continue to rise. Strange world!
La mezquindad
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2026/09/la-mezquindad.html
Comment expliquer les ruptures de carburants dans certains endroits de France ?
https://www.franceinfo.fr/economie/transports/penurie-de-carburants/comment-expliquer-les-ruptures-de-carburants-dans-certains-endroits-de-france_8202836.html
First article is by Antonio Turiel. He says he was born in 1970, so that makes him about 56 years old. He looks back at what has happened in Spain in his lifetime. I think that the bubble that Turiel says a bubble lifted the time from 2000 onward, thanks to the use of the cheap resources and labor from the Global South. But now that bubble is going away. I would add that the governments of the Global South are increasingly resentful of the Advanced Economies who have received excessive benefit. And now the resources are becoming much harder to extract.
In the 2000s, Spaniards learned that if they looked the other way amidst shady, not always legal, deals, there would be a hefty windfall for them. Even if you didn’t want to get involved, it was in your best interest to keep quiet to avoid trouble. After all, everything was going well for everyone. We got used to this unjustified prosperity, and over time we came to believe it was our divine right, our inalienable privilege. We had every right to live well; we were part of a powerful country and the European Union, and therefore, logically, we would always be rich and powerful.
At no point did we want to look at the foundation of our wealth. That our well-being was built on the plunder and theft of riches from other countries in the Global South. That our brand-new cell phones are stained with the blood of miners who precariously extract coltan in the Congo, or of workers poisoned in assembly plants in China. Our affordable designer clothes are sewn by enslaved children in Bangladesh. Our avocados are picked by immigrants who work for poverty wages in our orchards, or are stolen from other countries. And so on with an endless list of products. We didn’t want to look at these harsh realities because they challenged our right to have everything we have.
But we are so petty. Because we dare to be harsh with the weak, or simply refuse to see and accept their suffering, and at the same time we bow our heads before the strong. We know what’s good for us, and therefore we don’t oppose the bullies in our society, those “successful” businesspeople who make money hand over fist from the mass exploitation of collective misery, both at home and abroad. Not only do we not oppose them, but we flatter them, hold them up as role models, and give them awards and honors. Meanwhile, they are buying up all the media outlets, and also influencing influence in both the public and private sectors. How many times have I seen a journalist keep quiet or stop calling me because I make important people uncomfortable? How many times has a council member, full of enthusiasm, had to bow their head and submit, telling me, “I’m sorry, they wouldn’t let me do it…” How many.
But now things are starting to go wrong. Very wrong.
Here in Spain, gasoline and diesel are already reaching €2 per liter, and the situation is even worse in Europe. . .
The second article is called, “How can we explain the fuel shortages in certain parts of France?”
The article explains that the shortages are mostly in Total Energies stations. They have a price cap. They only get deliveries once a week. They often run out before the next delivery because their lower prices are popular.
Trump can’t seem to rein in Zelensky:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trump-pushes-zelensky-halt-russia-refinery-attacks-amid-high-diesel
Article shows Truth social post by Trump:
Russia has unfortunately lost control of its Diesel Oil Industry due to its War with Ukraine. A large number of their Diesel refineries have been blown up and are, at least temporarily, out of commission. This ridiculous and never ending War with Ukraine must be ended. The whole World suffers as 25,000 people, mostly soldiers, are being killed each month. What a shame!
President DJT
Article also says:
Financial Times reports Monday that the US president just held a fresh phone call with his Ukrainian counterpart over the matter, where Zelensky was pressed over the strikes as Washington wants “Russian supplies to be able to reach the global market to provide relief” – also as cited in Bloomberg. . .
Reuters in a fresh report observes: “Oil prices slid to their lowest in 11 days on Monday as investors hoped for diplomatic progress on the Iran war due to this week’s UN meeting, and eyed a partial recovery in shipments from Saudi Arabia.” The Iranian president and his delegation have (somewhat surprisingly) been issued visas and are expected to be present in New York City this week.
US WTI is shown at $96 per barrel today. Hope reigns forever.
Someone offered me 1000 liters at 65 rubles today. At the pump is close to 78. Trump has a heart of gold and worries about us peones , but perhaps he should worry more about releasing the Epstein files.
It sounds like he will make a deal with Iran this week or at least tell us this. Iran seems to have backed off from a lot of prerequisites that they were asking for. I think they will negotiate on the nuclear and let go of reparations. They will still demand to have their money returned and charge a toll. It was interesting to see how the U.s did not come to the side of Saudi Arabia. I think because they were selling oil in Yuan.
Remember that in war, truth goes out the window.
I very much doubt that truth has been at home for a long time anyway, Gail.
War or no war……
True, but the situation gets worse.
Deteriorating rapidly, I agree!
Goebbels was correct when he said propaganda ought to be 95% true, so that the 5% of lies will be swallowed.
All the outrageous lies make trying to follow developments a waste of energy and time.
Almost the only thing I believe now is the price of goods when I buy them.
Not claims of crushing defeats, astonishing victories, stupendous energy reserves, imminent collapses, amazing Tech futures, the verbose horde of corrupt insider experts, etc.
And of course, I believe that you, Gail, always do try to tell it as you see it. For which thanks!
No chance of a deal .100% . If Trump concedes it is the end of the empire . The illusion must be maintained . How many years did it take the Brits to get out of their illusion ? I think it was the Wilson Prime ministership –the rise of Thatcher and the great sale of the industrial hinterland . I witnessed it .
According to Correlli Barnett the UK ruling class’s delusions ended in about 1940. They had to ask Uncle Sam for ££££ to help fight WWII.
UK peak power -1850? (peak coal 1913)
US peak power – 1950-70? (peak conventional oil in the lower 48 was 1970).
Prime Minister Harold Macmillan announced the end of the British Empire in a speech in about 1960. That’s how it seems in hindsight. As I was so young I mainly remember the Profumo scandal, which caused him to become ill and decide to resign (1963, papers sealed until *2063*).
I’d say Harold Wilson was the last PM who tried to make life a bit better for normal people. His resignation was a bolt from the blue.
Callaghan had no imagination and more or less capitulated to the banks. Thatcher worshipped the money men … just worse, as in the 1986 banking ‘Big Bang’ (aka de-regulation).
Right. Trump, or any other US leader, cannot concede.
The US can agree to cease hostilities because of some bilateral agreement, but that is about it. The US doesn’t need to win. Notice Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Korea.
Transcription of Anas Al-Hajji (energy expert) speech about the current diesel issue.
from timing 5 minutes, 36 seconds:
”Crude isn’t one specific substance. Gulf crude is heavy and sour, meaning dense and high in sulfur. American shale is light and sweet. Light sweet makes petrol. Heavy and medium sour is what makes diesel. And this is Alhaji’s point, the one nobody else is making.
Most of the crude that we lost out of her is medium sour. So even those who have the refining capacity in Asia, they couldn’t refine the diesel because they couldn’t get the medium sour crude.
It wasn’t just crude either. Three of the largest refineries on Earth sit in that Gulf. One in Kuwait, one in Saudi Arabia, one in the UAE. And all of their diesel and jet exports stopped. So the world lost the diesel and the machinery for making more of it. The same week, refiners across Asia had spare capacity and still couldn’t produce because they couldn’t get the right crude to put through it.
And this is the trap inside energy independence. People assume American shale covers it. It doesn’t. Shale is light and sweet. So, you get plenty of petrol and not much diesel.
The country producing more oil than at any point in its history still had a diesel problem because it was producing the wrong kind. There was one place to get medium sour crude at scale on short notice, and that was the strategic petroleum reserve. So, the US opened it at the highest daily release rate on record. American refiners stopped importing that grade, leaving more for everyone else. Diesel output rose.”
(in my view, this trick is difficult to be replicated again)
I made a few fixes to the transcript. It doesn’t hear words quite correctly. Crude becomes “crew,” for example. I know what the quote is supposed to say, so this was not difficult.
People don’t realize that all crude oil is a mixture of different molecules. It varies a lot from place to place. What Anas Al-Hajji refers to as “petrol,” we Americans would refer to as “gasoline.” Thus, the oil that the US gets from shale provides mostly gasoline.
The oil produced by the US provides little sulfur, also. Middle Eastern oil provides a higher percentage of diesel, plus sulfur. Sulfur is used as a kind of fertilizer, and in many other applications. For example, it is used in making sulfuric acid, which is used in mining uranium and in many other applications.
It is interesting that refiners were able to get medium sour crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Now that the SPR is severely depleted, it will not be possible to repeat that feat.
“Raphael Lataster, PhD
The BMJ, one of the world’s top medical journals, has published a report by Willman explaining that US health officials deployed a flawed data-mining algorithm to track mRNA COVID-19 vaccine safety, ignored internal warnings about its failure, and sidelined scientists who attempted to fix it.”?
https://x.com/OkayThenNews/status/2101861146383016209?s=20
This goes on to say:
Incredibly, the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were typically used as the background baseline for each other, so if both caused similar issues – like myocarditis – it appeared that there was no problem. It’s like how so many non-COVID vaccines aren’t tested against placebo, but against earlier versions/options. Knowing that their pharmacovigilance sucked, the authorities continued to maintain that the jabs were safe.
Link to BMJ article:
https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2026-100806
“Jan 6: 45% were Doctors, Lawyers, CEOs – only 10% were Militia Members”?
https://open.substack.com/live-stream/369834?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell
@post key. Thanks for posting this. I agree with the premise that there is no longer any rule of law. The statutes, however they are written, no matter how clear-cut, are MEANINGLESS. What determines whether they are enforced or not depends on an AGENDA.
As bad as Mao was, he was still correct when he stated in so many words that in the end, justice is delivered only through the barrel of a gun. There are no political, legal, or constitutional remedies to “peacefully” address what we’ve got coming down the line. Again my candle burning at both ends analogy. One end is the monetary debt. The other is the actual depletion of easy to access raw materials and energy. Hell, I get my posts on Yahoo censored across the board when I try to address specifics. Those in control of the media simply will not let you post any information that the general public just might be able to understand/realize what is happening.
And from the incredible song “Monster” by the Canadian band Steppenwolf:
“Because the people grew fat and got lazy, and now their vote is a meaningless joke. They babble about law and order, but it’s all just an echo of what they’ve been told. “
That backs up Peter Churchin’s work… Revolutions are ignited by the upper classes of society!
Fuel Rationing in the UK
No fuel shortage? Motorists queue for petrol across UK, nearly 400 stations impose £30 limit amid ‘unprecedented demand’
The deepening energy crisis in Britain has reached fuel supply, with large queues spotted at petrol stations across the country. One of the providers, EG Group, has imposed a £30 limit due to a surge in demand.
Long queues of cars at petrol stations were spotted across the UK on Friday, with hundreds of motorists seeking to top off their tanks amid fears of fuel shortages.
https://londondaily.com/no-fuel-shortage-motorists-queue-for-petrol-across-uk-nearly-400-stations-impose-30-limit-amid-unprecedented-demand
What are the Japs doing ? Harakiri .
“The current retail price of petrol (gasoline) in Tokyo is approximately JPY 165.78 to 169.90 per liter, and diesel is around JPY 153.78 to 159.30 per liter based on data updated up to September 14, 2026. ”
$ 1 per litre and it imports 100 % of its crude .
this article is from 2021. look at the dates of the tweets.
Interesting point. Commenters from the UK would tell us about the situation if it really exists.
We’re still doing OK, remarkably. However, winter is coming so I expect heating (natural gas) prices to increase. Fuel (petrol and diesel) is already rising – nearly £2 per litre for diesel (that includes tax).
I’m amazed at the level of calm to be honest. I’m getting a log burner installed at the end of the month and I try and keep the car’s tank at least half full.
Unless people are directly affected now, no one wants to talk about problems today. World leaders certainly won’t explain issues to us.
Wow!
It sounds like the article is trying to blame other causes:
Britain’s Transport Secretary Grant Shapps has blamed the fuel issues on logistics problems. While the country’s refineries had “plenty of petrol” stockpiled, the UK has been plagued by the lack of lorry drivers, the official said, suggesting that the government might bring the army in to move fuel and other goods around.
https://x.com/Dr_Singularity/status/2101686201841332620
@Dr_Singularity
Doomers can never admit they were wrong because their apocalypse is permanently five years away.
When the 2030 arrive and society is still here, they’ll move the deadline to 2035. Then 2040. Then 2050.
When AI fails to “wipe us out”, they’ll switch to nanotechnology. Then picotechnology. Then some new technology that supposedly means “humanity is finished.”
Every failed deadline is quietly replaced with a new one.
Doom is an infinitely renewable narrative.
Doomers can never admit they were wrong because their apocalypse is permanently five years away.
Actually, I think it begins with WWIII, and that is pretty much here, with the scale up of fighting in the Middle East and Russia.
Funny how they timed ww3 with when the jabs kill you
From what I’ve read I just think on average the jab raises your risk of death by a few tens of percent. Edward Dowd studied well-off employees of large American companies who were mostly forced to take it. He seems to have found excess initial deaths of 40 percent in that ‘demographic’ but it’s well down now.
I would agree, with the modification that it can be presented as ‘WW3’ to the masses, but is in fact highly orchestrated. in order to move to the next stage of Collapse management.
Real casualties, of course. Theatre, but live theatre……
Like a lot of things you post there is some truth to it but then you take that little bit of truth and try to apply it to the macro. Rephrasing your argument it’s sheer normality bias. The car can not crash because it never has. You did the same for the injections with your arguments they were safe. Like your argument that there was absaloutly no effect from them on woman’s reproductive health. You think that’s forgotten? Care to reiterate that same position again? Remember? When you “proved” the injections were safe for women’s reproductive health? Now you go radio silent of course.
>> Like your argument that there was absaloutly no effect from them on woman’s reproductive health. You think that’s forgotten? Care to reiterate that same position again? Remember?
You talking to me? You seem to have me confused with someone else. I never made an argument on that, but the animal studies we do have shows it greatly reduces the number of eggs in ovaries.
Yes you did. You based it using general population not a control group.. You based the assertion on no increase in stilbornes in the general population in a document during the time period of the injections.. You statement “I have proved their is no effect on woman’s reproductive health”. I’m not surprised you are denying it now.
If I go back find it and document your post will you never post here again?
Let’s forgive and forget, if you actually find it. People can make mistakes and go on.
Well Gail this is the thing. Ivanslav commonly represents himself as some function in the medical world. The foundation of drug safety is the control group. If you use general population anything can be proven or disproven. If I do a rain dance and it rains more than last year does it prove the rain dance works? If it doesn’t rain more does it prove the rain dance doesn’t work? This is like first week stuff in medical statistics.
Statements like “proving”something safe all by his lonesome let alone something as sacred as woman’s reproductive health based on general population not a structure medical study with control groups has very interesting implications.
Your the boss. You want it dropped it’s dropped.
I hadn’t noticed that. I often don’t keep track of which commenter represents himself as an expert in a given field. In that case, your request makes sense.
Dog, sure. If you find a statement where I claim there is no effect on women’s physiology, I’ll never post again. What I may have said, and I don’t remember, is that we don’t have clear data showing a massive impact on births or health, globally or in the US.
https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metrics/countries/usa/united-states/birth-rate
Well, their guru Kurzweil had said singularity 2015..
Just as postkey’ post above on the You Tube video https://open.substack.com/live-stream/369834?utm_source=live-stream-scheduled-upsell @ 36:30 stated, ” there is not a likelihood of civil war…etc.” I agree. A whole ecosystem of influencers, financial planners, social media, and authors make their living by fearmongering secretly. They need this chaos to continue because they profit from it, not because they truly want to do something about it, like Luigi Mangione did for example.
Only when these opportunists face the reality themselves will things start moving and shaking. For now, they are simply making too much F-ing money selling their fear porn. The producers (middle class) are carrying a huge parasitic load of useless people: lawyers, bankers, politicians, and globalists who, at the apex of the pyramid, have tapped into the government subsidies, and at the base of the pyramid those who have tapped into government transfer payments and are known as the FSA (Free Shit Army). A fiat debt based fractional reserve monetary system has allowed politicians to pay for these promises in exchange for votes….for now. But the debt monster lurks and will have its vengeance– eventually. But it will come like a thief in the night. You will wake up one morning and realize that someone has stolen your car or half the chickens and vegetables you have been raising in your back yard.
A new buzz . US may ban the export of diesel under pressure from US farmers who are the MAGA base of Trump . 1.56 mbpd gone at the time when Macron is in Canada looking for diesel . Senator Thune has started this . Now we have the elections — how many more Republicans will join the call . All want to be re elected .
Diesel is part of an international supply chain. Stopping sales of exports will cause disruptions of many types.
In the future, It will be much harder for the US to import the heavy oil it needs to operate is refineries that disproportionately make diesel. We especially need the heavy oil from Canada, for one thing.
Europe needs the heavy oil from Canada too. It will be interesting to follow how things will evolve between them.
UE : ce que l’on sait du statut de “membre associé” proposé au Canada https://share.google/xFOZS9bQAJmvLpcBJ
Translation: EU: What We Know About the “Associate Member” Status Proposed for Canada
Question and answer .
”
June Goh
@JuneGoh_Sparta
·
1h
Will refineries stop buying crude because tankers got more expensive?
Only if the refining margin drops below zero.
In normal times, this means the freight costs will drop.
But this is not normal times and the world is short refined products.
So cracks has to adjust even higher and/or crude FOB diffs have to come off if tankers still cost a million dollars a day to charter.
That’s my current read of the market given some latest headlines that suggest refineries would stop buying crude to fill up capacity
” Breaking news. Exit polls show Merz’s party suffering heavy losses in 2 German state elections ”
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/20/german-exit-polls-show-merzs-party-suffering-heavy-losses-in-2-german-state-elections
According to the article:
Merz’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union is projected to fall to 5.5% in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. That would be its worst result there since World War II. The CDU is projected to come in second with 20%, behind the Left party at 24.5%, according to the exit poll by public broadcaster ARD. . .
In Berlin, the CDU is projected to finish second with 20% of the vote, trailing the Left Party at 24.5%, according to an exit poll by the public broadcaster ARD. . .
Apparently anticipating a challenging post-election period, Merz abandoned a planned trip to New York next week to attend the UN General Assembly.
Speaking after the publication of the exit polls, Merz stated that he intends to remain leader of the CDU and chancellor until the end of his term.
Macron in Canada looking for diesel.
“Energy could become one of its main areas of focus.
France is looking to Canada to help secure European supplies of hydrocarbons, at a time when fuel prices are soaring due to global conflicts and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
This situation is already putting additional pressure on France’s heavily indebted public finances, forcing the government to extend some existing measures and step up talks with partners, particularly in the Middle East.”
https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/19/macron-heading-to-saint-pierre-and-miquelon-to-meet-with-canadian-pm-carney
The article say:
France is looking to Canada to help secure European supplies of hydrocarbons, at a time when fuel prices are soaring due to global conflicts and tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.
This situation is already putting additional pressure on France’s heavily indebted public finances, forcing the government to extend some existing measures and step up talks with partners, particularly in the Middle East.
Macron and Carney are due to continue their talks next week in New York, on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly..
But can France really afford to pay for the diesel?
I can believe it
‘Crisis even bigger than Covid’: American business owners are barely getting by -CNN
Around the country, American business owners across myriad industries say they’re in a similar boat. A closely watched monthly survey from the Institute for Supply Management raised eyebrows earlier this month after several business leaders compared the current business climate to the pandemic.
They said Covid was better.
Massive disruptions and price instability are forcing businesses to make impossible decisions. They have no idea how to plan, and their inflation-wary customers are in no mood for more price hikes.
“This is a bigger problem than Covid, for sure,” said Jack Buffington, director of the supply chain program at the University of Denver. “This is completely different. This is an energy problem.”
https://archive.is/20260920104340/https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/20/economy/covid-diesel-supply-chain#selection-3925.13-3941.208
I think that this is an important issues. Bessent and others are looking at economic data that is distorted by the heavy borrowing by the AI industry and the underlying assumption that this borrowing will, in fact, lead to a profitable growing industry that can repay all of its debt.
There are earlier stories saying something similar about the business situation.
The New York Times said something similar in June:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/business/economy/small-business-strain-economy.html
The US Economy is Leaving Small Businesses Behind
What it should say is:
‘Outside the insane speculative bubble, the real economy, and society, are collapsing’.
Hush, you talking head… don’t alert the stupid sheeple…
Posted before AI, but caveat emptor:
Nuclear demolition of the WTC, in over 4 hours.
Who knows how to download YT videos for free? It used to be possible some years ago.
It’s called yt-dlp. A command-line Python script, if you can manage that. If not, maybe you can have AI write you a GUI-app that wraps it.
Hmm. Definitely not something I’m acquainted with. Is it called Python because it ties you in knots? I just like to double-click an app. It looks similar to when I tried to download Stable Diffusion and make it work, but it gave me error after error line.
Anyway, I’ve downloaded that thing, and it’s taken me into a black screen command line thing, like something out of the 1980s. So I’ve asked ChatGPT and it claims to have come up with something. I’ll check it out tomorrow.
I use a firefox add on named Easy Youtube Video Downloader Express.
Thanks, I’ll have a look.
https://app.ytdown.to/en38/
Brilliant! That worked a treat! Definitely a keeper. Thanks, nikoB. With drb’s option, I had to install Firefox first, and then it only let me download the 380 version as max quality, otherwise I would have to pay. ivanislav, more complicated, but I should try to learn stuff like that. But my thanks to all you three public-spirited guys, for stepping up to help. 🙂
Guys, listen
The elites are correct.
What do you think they’re supposed to do?
Europe is lacking fuel, it’s depleted > by taking Russia’s resources to themselves, they not only remove Russia’s own needs from the market, but they also kill China and its own resource cosumption > Ukrainian War
The Petrodollar is a weapon of global dominance > the US oil has been falling in both quantity and quality > it relies on middle east control > Iraq, Libya, Syria, Iran and other countries not allied with this project must be put down > take their oil and resources as well while at that > forever wars
The world population is addicted to oil consumption and products > oil is depleting > there will be a collapse of the world economy > try to make a controlled demolition > try to implement rationing and surveillance > specially in the first world, where the elites rule and can do that far more easily, and where the population has the highest oil consumption per capta
World population is too large > the planet’s resources can’t sustain it in any longer, specially because the third world is consuming more and more > do everything to break up the family, destroy the relationship between the sexes, stop couple and family formation, stop men at all costs from ascending in life and increasing their resource consumption and starting families, elevate everything that mentally castrates the people (social networks, gender ideology, etc)
Mass immigration to the first world as a weapon of controlled societal demolition > collapse the state through resource redistribution and hyper extraction > billions are added to the economy in debt with migrant consumption and asset prices high due to pressure > low first world fertility adds the need for cheap labor WITHOUT the need of creating more babies in the world as a whole, just by moving people from one place to another > it kills third world fertility and economy and resource demand by removing people within the fertility window from these countries
Seriously.
If you were part of the elites, what would you even do differently?
The world’s perception of the Ghandhi legacy might be a touched skewed
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-30040790
From 2014. This link starts out:
India’s dark history of sterilisation
The death of 15 women at two state-run sterilisation camps in Chhattisgarh has put a spotlight on India’s dark history of botched sterilisations.
The drive to sterilise began in the 1970s when, encouraged by loans amounting to tens of millions of dollars from the World Bank, the Swedish International Development Authority and the UN Population Fund, India embarked on an ambitious population control programme.
During the 1975 Emergency – when civil liberties were suspended – Sanjay Gandhi, external, son of the former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, began what was described by many as a “gruesome campaign” to sterilise poor men. There were reports of police cordoning off villages and virtually dragging the men to surgery.
The campaign also made an appearance in Salman Rushdie’s novel, Midnight’s Children.
An astonishing 6.2 million Indian men were sterilised in just a year, which was “15 times the number of people sterilised by the Nazis”, according to science journalist Mara Hvistendahl. Two thousand men died from botched operations.
It was, and still is, difficult to understand what to do about the population explosion after fossil fuels allowed more food and advances like penicillin. A much larger share of babies lived to adulthood. Trying to do sterilizations seemed like a reasonable approach, but the article points out that these surgeries were not risk-free. Also, I am sure that the people did not want them.
Gail , this is stale news . 1977 that was 48 years ago . As my favorite lawyer Perry Mason said “Incompetent, irrelevant, and immaterial “😉
It is part of history. It is part of the reason that the world’s population now isn’t even higher than it is.
A long while ago I recall reading an article on this topic for India. The one main point I remember is a study was conducted that showed the massive numbers were too overwhelming for this sterilization program to have much impact because of the limited offices and qualified medical personnel to perform these procedures.
Anyway, I probably read this paper when the world’s population was under 6 billion.
Good question: what indeed?
Setting any morality aside:
Nuked, or in some way drastically reduced, the populations of India, Africa, the ME, and most of Asia, sparing China and Japan, Korea, etc.
I would certainly not have destroyed Europe with mass immigration.
Greatly reduced the elderly population in the West, and encouraged more births and family formation.
I’d create a affordable island of affordable manufacturing to provide me with all the technology and manufactured goods I need after things settle down. I would only need one. I’d make that one the center of affordable technology and manufacturing. it would need a authoritarian government with strong control and a population conditioned to obey that was relatively hard working and intelligent. Obviously very minimum manufacturing for the unwashed masses as manufactured goods are products of energy and ever decreasing raw materials.. I would completely stop using oil for transportation except where absaloutly needed like oil tankers. Oil consumption would be limited to applications where there was no substitute or my occasional jet or helicopter forray. I would collect both Human and animal DNA profiles should I need one for a specific application after the event. This would also be handy should any biological efforts be necessary to reduce consumption. Sometimes this might seem odd why such sensitive and powerful information and infrastructure was being transfered from other nation states to my island which serves as a repository for the biggest slice of industrial civilization I could manage but oh well. Of course I would own all media so no problems there. To accomplish all this I would need the power of money to be substantial and have access to large quantities of it. Only on the final stages where the unwashed masses are no longer allowed to consume would money have no value. Tokens of some sort to inventive behavior would be necessary . Id tell the fools everyone will get them and condition them in various ways so they would believe me.
Obviously none of that has come to pass so you are a crazy conspiracy theorist.
It is indeed a sad situation that we are dealing with: too many people and depleting resources. We end up with something that looks a whole lot like the beginning of WWIII.
” L ” . I agree 100% .
” Jean-Claude Juncker famously said, “When it becomes serious, you have to lie” (often translated or paraphrased as “When the going gets tough, you have to lie” or “When things get bad, we lie”).Context of the Quote When it was said: Jean-Claude Juncker made the remark in 2011, while serving as the Prime Minister of Luxembourg and the head of the Euro group (the group of euro zone finance ministers).The situation: He was defending the secretive nature of high-level European political and economic negotiations, specifically regarding the euro zone debt crisis.The meaning: Juncker argued that during severe economic or political crises, public transparency can cause market panic or destabilize delicate negotiations. In those high-stakes moments, leaders must sometimes obscure the truth or deny ongoing discussions to protect the single currency and maintain stability.
We hear about the “fog of war.” The only message Donald Trump can possibly give is, “We are doing fine.” Also, the price of oil will be coming down; Iran keeps coming asking us to end the war.
This is simply the way the system works. No leader can admit that his/her country is doing poorly.
“If you were part of the elites, what would you even do differently?”
I wouldn’t have ever let it get this way