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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
Whenever I see news about the fake wars in Russia and Iran
I bet they use Flock cameras to enforce Lockdowns. That’s why they called them “Flock” because its rhymes with LOCK.
They love blowing these smoke signals too. I bet they get a real tickle out of it. Seeing who can figure it out. lol
Maybe you thought IKEA from Northern Europe was unbeatable… But what about delivering better value for money?
How the XXXLutz Group from mountainous Austria became one of Europe’s furniture retail giants:
https://youtu.be/MDU3eeoYwt0?si=URQNXIwRQ_Ofh2xt
Meanwhile, energy-poor Austria is falling deeper into energy poverty due to clmt chng:
https://youtu.be/ToQ1jWkseSk?si=UUanru3ng-KzIVjJ
yep, it is all due to climate change. Cold, mountainous region of Europe has become too hot. No heat savings in winter whatsoever.
Possibly largest drone attack on Moscow yet. The whine of the drones increases until the climax the shock of the explosion. Just another night in Moscow. Another refinery on fire of course.
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/2101528288728416433
1110 drones. However, my opinion is that this proves Ukies’ supplies are dwindling. 800 drones to Moscow happened multiple times this spring and summer. However the latest attack came after 15 days of, for me, uninterrupted internet, and very little attacks. Friday to now has been on and off (OFW is a designated grey website, and so long as I do not try to navigate to a red website, like, say, youtube, they will let me read it and even post. If I try a red one I lose all connectivity to the west). So I estimate current Ukraine’s drone capacity at 100 a day, which is a lot less than,say, its May capacity. I will certainly patronize my favorite cafe’ next time in Moscow, no prob.
I think more interesting is that electoral turnout so far has been 47%. It will improve because today polling stations will be open, but probably not to the levels one would expect. Granted there are reasons not to vote, if you do not have a car and you polling station is 10 km away (mine is 11km away. but one of my workers lives there, and he was stacking hay until 20:00. I took him home and since I was there I voted). But, in this religious part of the country, some do not vote because they want their tzar back. anyway, there is really no choice. Putin represents extreme softness towards the West due to his record, everyone else campaigned for a more aggressive attitude towards the West, and Putin has been obliging since early August.
A sad situation:
Photos of a refinery burning with the note:
UKRAINIAN DRONES SUCCESSFULLY STRUCK MOSCOW OIL REFINERY
The Moscow Refinery “Gazpromneft-MNPZ” in the Kapotnya district is one of the largest in Russia, with a capacity of 11 million tons of oil per year, supplying approximately 40% of Moscow’s fuel market and 70% of the region’s demand for gasoline and aviation kerosene.
The Houthis are allowed to strike oil refineries and oil pipelines, Ukraine is allowed to strike Russian oil refineries, and Iran is allowed to strike oil refineries. Everything is scripted so that when the Geophysical Event intensifies, you will blame the crisis and the famine on the wars. They will promise a better future, but things will only get worse, while the elites will be in their doomsday bunkers.
Russia the land of cities under siege.
https://x.com/RasReload/status/2101555941774663871/video/1
If anyone other than Putin had been in charge, I expect Russia would have attacked the West back.
Good old pootie. Damn he fetches the ball good. More massive expenditures of ordnance wasted that Russia will need in the immediate future.
https://x.com/RealAlexJones24/status/2101722050020921719
We have entered the next level of total escalation💥
🚨🚨Russia has now followed through with their biggest air attack on Ukraine in over four years.
Reports are that we’re attacking Iran again with airstrikes, that Trump cut his Camp David trip short.
Sad situation!
Dough Noland has for the past 25yrs+ put out a weekly blog analysis post on his Credit Bubble Bulletin. His focus is credit expansion, the Fed, commercial bank credit creation and global markets from an historical perspective. He has been a formative voice in my ongoing interpretation of contemporary macroeconomics.
In his post his week he considers this week’s rate cut to have been an important change in monetary policy magement, particularly bold with a contentious election only weeks ahead. Before his appointment Mr Noland discussed Warsh’s background and record which he regarded Warsh as a very hawkish candidate. Warsh’s press conference comments illustrate this and it cannot be a surprise to anyone watching (assuming Trump is watching that he’s ended up on Trupm’s daily drone list.
Warsh, the principled central banker – the determined inflation-fighter; the smoothest of tough-talkers; the second coming of Volcker.
https://thecreditbubblebulletin.com/commentary/walked-the-walk/
Sure, it’s only yet more words, but time will tell whether reducing credit expansion with impact inflation. Maybe with supply constriction driven inflation, credit availablity won’t make any difference. Maybe it’s too little, too late. Maybe Volker II will collapse the derivatives ponzi. For certain, though, it’ll be entertaining days … while watching the inflationary tsunami on it’s path, indicated in producer prices m/m around the world that appears likely to land in coming months.
I think you mean this week’s rate increase, not cut.
Warsh certainly is a determined inflation fighter. It is too bad he doesn’t understand which kind of inflation he has. Now, it is too difficult to get materials out of the ground. The problem at one time was too many people and businesses could afford to buy the products. This is diminishing returns inflation, rather than inflation from too much demand.
Correct, I mean rise. My mind is turning to mush – even after proof reading I still don’t see the errors and typos. After I posted then I could see three typosmand now your obvious mind reversal … I’m sorry. Old age makes me hopeless. I don’t know how you manage Gail. Well done!
The Federal Government continues to run annual deficits in the range of 6%-7% of GDP, with absolutely no end in sight.
Until this out-of-control deficit spending is significantly reduced, we will continue to have an inflation problem – regardless of minuscule Federal Reserve interest rate increases.
The wrap is when interest rates can no longer control the currency be basement. It would seem the most likely is the realization that the affordable and abundant energy necessary for a currency to have value will not be available at the time the bonds mature.
This is a good point. Running big deficits and putting the proceeds in the hands of citizens is a good way to get inflation, with or without a resource shortage.
I am not sure that war with Russia sounds like a great idea. The UK government is about to introduce a ‘national resilience campaign’ to get us used to the idea, and supposedly ‘psychologically prepared’ for it.
“Being [psychologically] prepared for war is the first stage. Contemplating war is the second phase and then actually engaging in war is the third. I think we’re well into the ‘contemplating war’ phase.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmn0jke547r5o
War may be coming. Are we psychologically ready?
If the UK suddenly found itself at war, would you know what to do? Do you know what would be expected of you?
The government wants us all to start preparing for severe disruption to our lives. It wants us to stockpile canned food and drinking water, strengthen our civic resilience, and plan for the possibility of war.
Work has begun on the government’s so-called “war book”, which hasn’t been updated in decades.
The UK’s most senior soldier has sounded the alarm. The Chief of the Defence Staff Sir Richard Knighton this week said the threat from Russia meant Britain was living through the “most dangerous” period of his 35-year career in the armed forces.
But what is the threat? In 1940 the danger of a German invasion of the UK was very real. But the chances of Russian tanks rolling up Whitehall are surely negligible.
“It’s not the tanks you need to worry about,” says historian Margaret MacMillan, author of War: How Conflict Shaped Us.
“It’s the cutting of cables on the ocean floor. It’s the hacking into systems on which so many things depend. The possibility for asymmetric war, for cyber war, is growing by leaps and bounds.”
But are we ready? After 80 years without war on our own soil, are we, as a society, psychologically prepared for it? Are we ready to approve large increases in defence spending, and for the sacrifices that that might entail in other areas of our national life? Or does the threat seem too far-fetched to be real?
… The belief that we are under threat is key, says psychologist Jim Orford, professor emeritus of clinical and community psychology at the University of Birmingham. “It is what I call simplistic thinking. In order to contemplate the possibility of going to war we’ve got to think in simplistic terms. In terms of enemies and heroes. We’ve got to think of Russia as an enemy. The narratives are all simplified.
“Being [psychologically] prepared for war is the first stage. Contemplating war is the second phase and then actually engaging in war is the third. I think we’re well into the ‘contemplating war’ phase.”
… But it is to the Finns that much of Europe now looks for lessons in mass psychological preparedness and civic resilience.
… Finland has universal male conscription, and some women also volunteer to serve. When their service is complete they then become part of Finland’s reserve force. This has the effect of closing the gap between the professional military and the civilian population.
“If conscription is done well, it ties every single family into national security thinking. Your grandfather, your great-grandfather and your sons, they all go to the same military service,” says the retired three-star General Arto Raty, a former permanent secretary of Finland’s Ministry of Defence.
“We bind the whole of society into supporting the military. Every single hospital has its crisis tasking. Every water supply agency. And interestingly, the most publicly trusted organisations in Finland today are the military, the defence forces and the police. That is not the case in most countries.”
People without jobs, or with very low-paying jobs, can often be convinced to go to war. It seems like that issue is the big one, in a group deciding whether to go to war.
The Israeli foreign minister recently suggested that the US should adopt a poverty draft for a ground war in Iran.
War with Russia wouldn’t start at winter. Its a trojan horse to prepare for collapse. (They obviously can’t say that)
That is the direction I’m leaning in too. When your infrastructure starts to fail due to your own incompetence, who do you blame? The Russians of course! It is important to keep the sheeple in a high state of anxiety and fear.
I feel this is entirely correct.
A classic ‘war economy’ is in fact a Collapse economy.
In many ways those presented with a external dragon to slay are lucker than a internal dragon to slay. At least those with an external dragon have the illusion of a home and a nation. Right Kulm?
For those who don’t know him, Knighton is a joke as a military leader.
Really, despite the impressive RAF uniform, he’s just a jumped-up aircraft engineer, a logistics type, who has never once been in the line of fire. He only has a private flying license.
Last year, he made the most disastrous ‘prepare for war’ speech I’ve ever heard or read: he assured Brits that war with Russia is ‘coming in a couple of years’ (so clairvoyant!) and – most incredible of all- that they should get used to the idea of ‘their sons and daughters dying’. Stirring stuff!
The response was general public derision, with these kinds of reaction:
1/ Kick out all the foreigners and we might have a country once more worth defending.
2/ Russia is clearly no threat to us.
3/ Send your own children first, Knighton!
4/ White working class males have been denigrated as racists for so long and now you need us to fight? Get lost!
5/ As a father, I will tell my sons not to obey and to declare themselves CO’s.
The Establishment think they can still command as they did in 1914 and 1939, but they are gravely mistaken.
Poverty might well drive the young into the ranks, but not this fake Russian threat.
Germany sent out 300,000 conscription forms as a ” trial run” —only 250 came back filled . Best of luck .
And Iran had 30 million sign up.
I saw your post below on Hirsch. Damn if he didn’t nail it back in 2005. The problem is going to be diesel. Thanks for reminding me.
Time for the no longer great Britain to dissolve.
Read Correlli Barnett’s book ‘The Collapse of British Power’.
It’s been happening for a long time. UK peak coal was in 1913.
There seem to be several reports like this, of shortages of drugs used in chemotherapy. I expect we will see more and more kinds of medicines and many other things that used to be available, but are no longer available, because of broken supply lines. Inadequate diesel will be only part of the problem.
https://www.oncozine.com/when-essential-cancer-drugs-run-short-why-oncology-drug-shortages-persist/
A new NCCN survey shows that shortages of generic oncology medicines remain widespread, affecting established treatments such as ifosfamide, carboplatin, and cisplatin—and placing new pressure on cancer care, clinical trials, and the pharmaceutical supply chain.
Key Takeaways
–Cancer drug shortages remain widespread. In the September 2026 NCCN survey, all 31 responding centers reported at least one anticancer drug shortage. Respondents reported shortages of ifosfamide in 94% of centers, carboplatin in 71%, cisplatin in 16%, and BCG in more than half of centers. More than 20% reported shortages involving five or more anticancer medicines. [1][3][25]
–The composition of the shortage changes over time. The severe carboplatin and cisplatin shortage reported in 2023 eased considerably by 2024. Carboplatin shortages have now returned, while ifosfamide has become the most widely reported shortage in the 2026 survey. [1][26][27]
–Most centers have continued treatment. Sixty-one percent of responding centers reported requiring pharmacy- and physician-led mitigation strategies to keep patients on recommended doses and schedules. Thirty-two percent reported that mitigation was not required, while 7% reported that they could not keep all patients on the intended course. [1][3][25]
–Shortages create clinical and administrative consequences even when treatment continues. Ninety percent of centers reported that treatment-plan modifications required repeat prior authorization, and 17% reported that obtaining reauthorization delayed treatment. [1][4][25]
–Clinical trials are also affected. Thirty-nine percent of responding centers reported that shortages had affected clinical trials. [25]
–The underlying problem remains structural. Low prices, manufacturing complexity, limited production capacity, geographic concentration, quality problems, and insufficient redundancy can leave older generic medicines particularly vulnerable to disruption. [6][7][28]
–The direct effect on survival remains incompletely characterized. The available literature documents treatment delays, substitutions, dose changes, and administrative consequences, but the population-level effect of recurrent shortages on cancer outcomes remains difficult to quantify. [10][18][19]
JUST IN: France says 11% of gas stations are now out of diesel
https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2101317681748099118
I think that this is pretty much the same as what ravi is saying, a little before you.
Not really. It concerns only gas stations under the brand of Total that sell diesel at low price so most people go there, which creates the shortage where diesel is still affordable. You can still buy diesel in France if price does not matter ….
The Hormuz Letter
@HormuzLetter
BREAKING: France is running out of fuel. 11% of France’s stations nationwide are now out of petrol or diesel, one in nine, with 16% of stations short in Grand Est, 15% in Pays de la Loire, 14% in Occitanie, and 13% in Centre-Val de Loire, per government figures published this morning.
The official count only registers a station as short if it has no petrol at all or no diesel at all, so a station out of one grade but holding another is not counted, meaning the real shortage is much larger. French diesel averages €2.406 a litre, about $10.45 a gallon.
Europe is facing its worst energy crisis in history.
Unfortunately, not surprising.
I noticed that the gas station I visited today (in the Atlanta area, near I-75) seemed to have several pumps that were not working. But there were quite a few pumps that were working. As far as I know, diesel was Ok.
Bet they lockdown next. And they tend to riot over this stuff.
Riots it is then, because I doubt that they will be anywhere but near the back of the queue, for anything through Hormuz or The Red Sea.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/247865/Araghchi-accuses-Paris-of-hypocrisy-over-its-colonial-history
It wasn’t too long ago Saudi was buying up every diesel excavator in the world. Now “investment opportunities” available.
Tough to convert those to battery. Even if there was copper. Rather expensive chicken coops.
https://x.com/TomthunkitsMind/status/2101302045571453102
The article points out things that are very unsurprising:
MBS’S “VISION 2030” PROJECT IS DEAD. IT WAS SUPPOSED TO CONTAIN THE TALLEST BUILDING IN THE WORLD. NOW, THE HOUSE OF SAUD IS HAVING A FIRE SALE. CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT IS BEING SOLD FOR PARTS.
More than 600 billion dollars in oil revenues were spent on the illusory “NEOM” project, to the point where construction equipment is now being sold at auction!
This is how the wealth of an entire people is squandered on the dreams of an incompetent ruler, instead of being invested in the future of coming generations.
MBS took the jab too. Already burst his appendix.
Big construction companies have been buying and selling eavy equipment with their equity going in and out for each project. The advent of online bidding changed big equipment actions radically in the USA. Online foreign bids put much higher valuations on equipment and the vast majority was the gulf. Saudi was a sugar daddy raising equipment prices worldwide
Diesel gone
Saudi gone
Easy and affordable world transport for equipment shuffling gone.
What’s that equipment worth?
I think it will be like the banks and real estate only much worse. The equipment will no longer be flipped because that will be a crippling perhaps bankruptcy loss on the books. The equipment will be held and rust. Or as mentioned in the link parted out. Parts may be more affordable to transport. A unit may be more valuable for parts than the unit as a whole now even if in excellent operating condition. Cost of big construction projects may reduce but the model where they buy what they need for a bid then dump it is gone. The lions share will be available for rent. Just add diesel.
During the Covid crisis I use to follow online auctions of heavy earth moving and construction equipment . $ 500,000 machines being sold for $ 50,000 in Australia . It reminded of Bob Hirsch who warned that “peak oil ” will result in ” stranded assets ” stuff that no one needs because their is no fuel .
P.S ; He used the word fuel and not diesel but this was 15/20 years ago .
‘Don’t be dumb and think your earthly assets will hold value forever: lack of diesel may strand them, and rust eat them up!’
Jesus H Christ
CEO NextLife.Inc.
The daughter of a friend runs a high-level recruitment agency in Dubai, placing people on Saudi projects, among others.
Business has died completely, but she is still hanging on thinking this will pass. It was highly lucrative.
Another friend has just recruited a superbly-qualified lab manager for his Bio-Tech start-up, relocating from Dubai to England with his family.
‘Tis an ill wind…..
Jokers .
” With Saudi shipping traffic in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait under unprecedented peril, the recently-launched Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition is moving closer to deploying ships to ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea, the Saudi Ministry of Defense announced on Friday.
Formed on July 30 at the initiative of Saudi Arabia, the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition comprises 14 countries: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Yemen, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Sudan, Djibouti, and Somalia. Representatives from 41 countries and the European Union, including 154 naval officers and officials, attended the coalition’s fourth planning meeting at the Saudi Western Fleet Command in Jeddah. ”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/14-country-maritime-defense-alliance-moves-closer-deploying-red-sea-gulf-aden
I doubt this gets anywhere.
The coalition was formed just 10 days after Yemen’s Ansar Allah movement — nicknamed “the Houthis” after its founder — announced a blockade on Saudi-related shipping in the Red Sea. Earlier this month, Ansar Allah achieved a stunning battlefield success by seizing the remainder of Yemen’s Red Sea coast it hadn’t yet controlled — by the group’s claim, some 2,000 square miles. The lightning blitz put well-armed Ansar Allah forces directly beside the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and on islands that command it. Though frequently called “rebels,” Ansar Allah — “Defenders of God” — controls Yemen’s capital and territory in which some 80% of Yemenis live.
Riyadh Airport Attacked: Fire, Thick Smoke and Flights Suspended .
https://aroundprague.cz/en/news/riyadh-airport-attacked-fire-thick-smoke-and-flights-suspended
Riyadh is the capital and largest city of Saudi Arabia.
If the Houthi, or Iran itself, can take control of the capital, then Saudi Arabia will likely be under the control of Iran and the Shia version of Moslem.
Trump has lost this war and Iranian Prof Seyed Marandi has just suggested/threatened that Iran will build a nuke if it is attacked again. And being the adult infant in the room, don’t discount Trump ramping up nuke threats again.
My hunch is that Iran has already built nukes during this current war. Several of the geopolitical experts and professors have surmised that Iran was forced to quickly build nukes during the pause in attacks and why Washington was targeting Pickaxe Mountain.
The video says that the Iranians are in favor of a strong Iran. They want nuclear capabilities. But they don’t want to use nuclear weapons unless absolutely necessary.
Sunni muslims will never accept Shia Islam: it is regarded as a heresy and a perversion of Islam. The division is centuries old.
It seems to me we are seeing the Saudi royal dynasty being given an excuse to leave and go into luxurious exile.
I don’t think Ansar Allah wants Riyadh They have made it known that they want Najran Jizan and Abha in the SW corner of Saudi. Which becomes interesting as Saudi weakens and perhaps the Shiites in the NE spurred on by Iran rise up. Our mouhallis (did our visa work) was from Qatif and his hatred for the Sauds was incredible. That is where the oil is
Thank you, very interesting.
A partition of the current Saudi Arabia may well be on the cards then.
Some facts about KSA . King Saud had 22 wives . He used marriage as a tool to forge the tribes into a kingdom . The problem is that all sons, grandsons , great grandsons are now what is called ” The House Of Saud” and have special privileges , stipends , rights etc above the general population of KSA . The ” House of Saud ” is hated by the general population . Several years ago MBS front ran the CIA . The preferred crown prince was a race between MBS , Prince Naeef ( in jail ) and Prince Bandar (Bush) Azad ( KSA ambassador to USA during Iraqi invasion ) a favorite of the Bush family . MBS did coup de etat and became the crown prince . He is hated in his own “House ” . Remember he murdered the journalist Kashoggi ( US citizen) in the KSA embassy in Turkey . The issue was settled with ” blood money ” or else the US would have to extradite him . He then later imprisoned and tortured the richest princes in Hyatt and extorted $ 20 billion from them . KSA is ripe for an overthrow .
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/4/2/saudi-arabia-gave-jamal-khashoggis-children-homes-money-report
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017%E2%80%932019_Saudi_Arabian_purge
Just to add . All those little princes of the ” House ” have dual nationality and have parked their money overseas after the ” purge” . They would loose nothing of MBS goes down the toilet . The question is will the US deep state allow this ? The KSA Sovereign fund is all invested in US stocks and bonds . $ AI Overview Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is the Public Investment Fund (PIF), which currently manages over $900 billion in assets.900 billion . 😭😭
Once upon a time (in Old Testament days), a man could have as many wives as he could afford. The practice doesn’t seem to completely go away. Elon Musk has quite a few children by several female partners.
All of this intrigue reminds a person of stories of what happened in the past in Europe.
The rich and powerful seem to do what they can get away with.
Whether you like or not, Kissinger did set up the postwar world order and his principle was the Congress of Vienna, where the crowned heads of Europe , reinstalled by the City of London for reasons which escape me now, tried to make Europe Status Quo Ante, i.e . before 1789.
Despite of the claims of the late Dr Robert Firth, whose idea of history probably stopped on whatever he had learned in postwar English school which refused to believe that it was no longer an Empire, that Europe was saved (from what, I still don’t get), Europe had a slumber of 45 years, revolts here and there no one remembers now but otherwise quiet.
Meanwhile USA forged ahead.
Now England is in retreat everywhere, despite of the chagrin of some British patriots who never left the Victorian age. Trump is toying with the idea of giving The Malvinas to Argentine and reuniting Ireland.
If the Tunguska meteor , which flew in the same latitude at London, hit the city we would have entered Type I by 2000.
Instead we are about to get an eternal Eastern Despotism.
A few Chinese officials went to the house of John Russell, who handled diplomacy with China, and met his grandson Bertrand, who was not impressed by them.
The Earl of Russell was created for John Russell, and it was eventually inherited by Bertrand, better known as an author. It will die with the grandson of Bertrand, none of them having descendants
Perhaps a fitting end to the end of the no longer Great Britain’s world domination.
Pakistan goes into lockdown
Pakistan imposes lockdown-like measures amid fuel, gas crisis: Foreign travel ban, markets shut by 9 pm
https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/pakistan-imposes-lockdown-like-measures-amid-fuel-gas-crisis-foreign-travel-ban-markets-shut-by-9-pm-101789658016026.html
A way of cutting back oil consumption. I think Ravi mentioned something similar recently.
No nos dirigimos hacia un pequeño colapso, vamos directos al apocalipsis.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/no-nos-dirigimos-hacia-un-pequeno?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=216407592&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Translation:
We’re not heading towards a minor collapse, we’re heading straight for the apocalypse.
I can’t think of headlines aggressive enough to warn of the horrifying path ahead.
Yes, we are at war and the headlines are filled with the details of each action, without taking into account the final destination.
Why these wars?
. . .
the remaining oil to be extracted consists of marginal barrels in older megafields, shale oil, ultra-deepwater fields, and extra-heavy oil. Reserves are accounted for according to discovery and subsequent evaluation, but the cost, following diminishing returns, is much higher initially, and extraction is also considerably more technically complex. . .
The problem will no longer be the price of a barrel of oil, but access to the few barrels that will be produced in the coming years. The US is not just Trump. The deep state, or whoever truly controls American politics, has devised a plan to seize every resource they can. No matter what. The midterm elections are a decoy. It doesn’t matter if Trump wins or not, the plan will remain the same.
Now it’s Greenland’s turn .
And we are on the verge of the Ukraine-Russia war spreading to Europe. . .
The truth is, the goal is to exhaust Russia’s economic capacity, to subdue the country and force regime change. They’re crossing every red line necessary to see if Putin loses patience and attacks where he shouldn’t, justifying the years of warnings they’ve been using. Again and again, relentlessly, without attempting peace agreements, with no limits on their objectives, even going so far as to bomb nuclear infrastructure, crossing a very hard red line.
In short, this is no coincidence; they are preparing for scarcity. Each country, in its own part of the world, is trying to seize or control available resources. Because in just a few years, price will be the least of their concerns.
And where is public opinion, looking the other way?
There is no plan B.
The energy transition is not possible.
. . .
Yes, I’m scared, and I’m surprised that almost no one is commenting on this obvious point. The fact that it’s a few years away doesn’t prevent us from realizing where we’re headed, simply by extrapolating the current trend and analyzing its natural consequences.
Those who think nothing ever happens are the same ones who think free money can retain its value indefinitely, that oil is inexhaustible, or that technology is immaterial (in the sense of not needing physical resources). How did we come to believe such absurdities when their contradictions are so obvious?
I haven’t written recently, in part because I cannot write such an article, even if it is true. I have thought of different approach, and I hope to have a new post up in not too long (in my slow way of writing posts).
“The truth is, the goal is to exhaust Russia’s economic capacity, to subdue the country and force regime change.”
Stoopid neoconservatives, because if there is a regime change in Russia, his replacement will not be as restrained. You don’t want someone like Dmitry Medvedev running the show in Moscow. He can be very emotional at times and has put pressure on Putin to be more aggressive against Ukraine and NATO, even going as far as using nukes.
Regardless of what you think pensions are probably gone in 3 years
I agree about the pensions.
I don’t want people doing rash things. And our understanding of the precise timing is not good at all.
Lots of things are likely to be going wrong, but it is difficult to know which things will go wrong first. Will the government fail? Will the stock market collapse? Will the pile of derivatives fail?
Zerohedge is reporting about a Truth Social post of President Trump:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/late-friday-trump-bombshell-us-makes-deal-permanent-control-over-greenlands-security
Late Friday Trump Bombshell: US Makes Deal For ‘Permanent Control’ Over Greenland’s Security
This is the Truth Social post:
BREAKING NEWS: I am pleased to announce that the United States of America has entered into an Agreement with The Kingdom of Denmark, and Greenland, that gives the United States permanent control over security, and all other needs, in Greenland, completely addressing ALL of our many U.S. concerns. There will be NO COST to the United States! At my direction, we worked with representatives of Denmark and Greenland to guarantee that the United States will FOREVER have the complete ability to do what is necessary in Greenland in order to secure and defend the security of Greenland, and the United States of America. Additionally, from now on, no U.S. adversary can EVER have a base in Greenland, have a military presence in Greenland, or make sensitive investments in Greenland, without our express written approval. For over 100 years, Presidents have known the strategic importance of Greenland, but NONE of them were able to do anything about it. I am proud to be the President that permanently and conclusively addressed this very important situation.
This is an “Infinite Life” Agreement, there is no end! We are very honored and proud of what has just taken place, and everything agreed to today will be cherished by the American People. We will immediately begin the process of developing a large Military presence in the appropriate part of Greenland, of which there are many. We will work with the people of Greenland in its development and construction. This solution is a great one for the United States of America, Denmark, Greenland, and all of our Allies. We look forward to working with the wonderful people of Denmark and Greenland toward a magnificent future with respect to this large, and highly strategic, parcel of land. We will be very protective of it! This is a dream come true for the United States of America, one that is very important, historic, and special.
Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Is there any truth behind this post?
Economist and Columbia Prof Jeffery Sachs likes to describe Donald Trump as a gangster on the world stage and his behavior as, gangsterish. So don’t be too surprised if it turns out to be true, that he “steals” more territory.
Old wine in new bottles . The terms are the same as the agreement of 1951 . Just rewording , the gist is unchanged .
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/22/greenland-negotiations-resemble-existing-deal-00742482
If Trump can get away with it, he will.
EU wants the US troops to stay in Europe. That’s not a problem once the new bunch comes in but things may go south before then. New Trumpland is just a bribe.
Ice age farmer just posted.
Diesel Is the Pretext…
Diesel is at record highs.
The IEA, WEF, and FAO already published the response to this crisis: fuel rationing, plate-based road limits, farm AI, water caps, then Digital ID.
As folks start to cry out, and the political willpower is manufactured, the policy recommendations released over the last 6 months will be pulled off the shelf.
We will no longer be free to consume energy, food, or water. We will instead henceforth request permission from the technocrats.
The natural order is being inverted. The technocrats are attempting to insert themselves as the sovereigns: between us and the living world. Between us and God. A family can no longer thrive off the abundance of nature; we are now restricted to what their system will afford us
https://x.com/UnshadowedShow/status/2101108710592704973
Diesel is needed to make the economy operate properly. Without enough diesel, the economy needs to shrink back. A reduction in diesel per capita is a major problem.
“When The Trucks Stop Running” – A.J. Friedemann
This is why we have seen a massive approval rating drop for Trump and a growing Anti-Israel sentiment. Which was helped in part by the clever Iranian Lego YT rap videos, which got their message across to Americans and the West.
I will be shocked if the Republicans don’t lose the House and Senate and Neocons on both sides of the aisle don’t lose their seats as well.
We have two crazy @ss individuals who have put the world in a huge mess that we may not get out of.
Trump doesn’t need the house and senate. He’s ruling as a dictator with ex orders.
Carrot Top is hospitalized in Las Vegas after a suicide attempt … TMZ has learned.
Sources familiar with the situation tell TMZ … the comedian and longtime Las Vegas performer, who’s real name is Scott Thompson, attempted suicide on Friday in the Vegas area and was rushed to a local hospital.
https://www.tmz.com/2026/09/18/carrot-top-hospitalized-after-suicide-attempt/
This is not someone I have heard of previously. Male comedian.
My guess is Carrot Top didn’t age well…
https://www.google.com/search?client=tablet-android-lenovo-rvo3&hs=WQKB&sca_esv=a880278f275a4eff&sxsrf=APpeQnvDcVW7frIINSSHdqe5byYijl80ng:1789826375035&udm=2&fbs=ABfTbFVyMZGZf1hfvX9uKjN_-G8c4u0nXx4bEIpwm1lnNH832VTJOOCxW_fyN-Q_ezyf8gKjm3rhh_G8jdZ2Q6tji4z8GVSvqyGdykqk6W5STIO7Ee71YxW2VggeXfxXsifX2adcjn1FmZ0TFRvOZRlIHRDRwAqcDMoSGfAy3MhF2taL3iq2jVwy9uk7H2zNMdCHmaFAkonkEFxOGJppuhcLHFyHUnBNZg&q=carrot+top+old+age&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjqjazq5vqWAxU_mmoFHfzGB-UQtKgLegQIGBAB&biw=1333&bih=605&dpr=1.5#sv=CAMSURoyKhBlLU80Y1VKcXpBdURrNldNMg5PNGNVSnF6QXVEazZXTToOLTdvUnM4T2U1Q3ZNdk0gBCoXCgFzEhBlLU80Y1VKcXpBdURrNldNGAEwARgHIMXKgsYPSggQARgBIAEoAQ
i thought we are only allowed to talk about Slovak entertainment figures here..
Oh, it is rumoured he’s of Slovakian descent and was doing very well professional
The stand-up comedian, whose real name is Scott Christopher Thompson, was taken to the hospital on Friday, September 18, just hours before he was due to perform at the Luxor Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas. A day before his hospitalization, Thompson shared a throwback picture of himself on Instagram from 2018.
In the snap, the entertainer was seen posing next to a miniature customized car. He captioned the post, “Just your average Thursday commute to the Luxor. #TBT.” It comes after Barely Breathing singer Duncan Sheik died at the age of 56.
We, Slovaks, make great entertainers
Excerpt: “In the past two weeks, American, United and Southwest have all confirmed they are pulling flights out of their schedules, and every one of them has pointed at the same cause: fuel. United says it has removed flights already on its December schedule and warned it may cut further into the first quarter of 2027 if prices stay where they are. American has temporarily suspended six routes — four of them out of Los Angeles, two connecting Charlotte to California — and is reviewing more. Southwest has quietly cut its planned 2026 capacity growth roughly in half, from an original target of 2 to 3 percent. And the first outright casualty is already in the ground: Spirit finished its wind-down in May, undone by a restructuring plan that had assumed jet fuel near $2.24 a gallon and then watched it climb to around $4.51.
Here is the sentence I want you to hold onto, because it is the whole story compressed. United’s chief financial officer, explaining the cuts, said the airline is now flying “to maximize profitability and free cash generation” — not market share.”
https://sonar21.com/the-squeeze-reaches-the-runway-the-distillate-war-is-now-cutting-flights/
Christmas will be cancelled.
Enjoy your Ramen with face mask.
I would not be surprised if flights start being canceled, close to the time they were scheduled to take place.
Even if airlines sold tickets for a particular date, there is no guarantee that there will actually be enough jet fuel to provide service for that date.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-futures-are-possible-part-i/comments
B has made a great new article plotting out possible futures of humanity along the axes geopolitics and energy consumption (labeled power shift). Power shift covers possibilities ranging from standard peak oil scenarios to occasions where an energy miracle occurs, while geopolitics concerns the impact of AI and the weakening and perhaps future loss of American geopolitical dominance.
I personally favor intermediate scenarios where diesel use declines primarily due to depletion or the destruction of oil wells because investment in new oil production has been inadequate in the face of ever increasing depletion and because I don’t think the oil wells of the middle east will survive the current Iran war. The survival of Russian and Norwegian oil production is more likely, but if a EU-Russia war breaks out, those resources will also be forcibly disconnected from their respective economies. Due to these geopolitical disruptions electrification is also unlikely to continue at the maximum rate, though I think the partial electrification of the East Asian and North American economies seems likely. As for geopolitics, The West in general and America in particular are likely to be wracked by convulsions related to immigration and ethnogenesis along party lines. I can’t rule out a Yugoslavia-like civil war. AI is the biggest wildcard, since I think that a superintelligence could be created IF the AI bubble lasts long enough and training runs get 1 or 2 orders of magnitude bigger. If one or more superintelligences emerge, they’ll be a problem as they try to secure the resources needed for long term survival. I don’t think they’ll succeed. Otherwise, it won’t happen anytime soon, if at all, since energy constraints will reduce the amount of compute available for an AI buildout for at least a few decades and the pursuit of superintelligence will be somewhat tabooed because it didn’t work out the last time and because of legitimate concerns over loss of control. I will note that there’s a decent chance that a future with AI will end up looking like a future without AI, since the popping of the AI bubble would cause the price of compute to crater and make the short term existence of an AI superintelligence easier.
There is a link to the actual article by B, rather than to the comments after it.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-futures-are-possible-part-i
B looks at the future using various lenses. These are some quotes:
Geopolitical: The most likely scenario—in my humble opinion—is B: the world entering a decades-long era of conflict, disintegration and state failures. AI agents will end up being nothing more than another weapon of war and destruction, hacking into enemy systems, surveilling citizens and keeping the order at home and in occupied territories.
Power Shift: The most likely scenario—in my humble opinion—is C, with diesel consumption continuously falling and electrification hitting limits to growth. While there will be efforts made to harness hitherto unused sources of energy (“white” geologic hydrogen comes to mind here) and other mineral resources, these will prove ‘to be to little, too late’ and will come at a too high ecological / economic cost to save the world economy.
With falling global energy consumption the global economy begins to physically shrink, ultimately hampering resource extraction and manufacturing needed to “complete the transition.” Diesel fuel will remain important but its use will be increasingly limited to military and agricultural applications. Pockets of highly electrified regions emerge, where high-tech use remains dominant, but other regions enter a self-reinforcing loop of deindustrialization driving people back to the land or fighting hopeless wars.
B will look at the issue through other lenses in a later post. The insights B gives so far seem to be reasonable ones.
There is only one way to bring oil prices down.
LOCKDOWNS..
Or, scare people into staying at home.
Or lose the money in people’s bank accounts. Then they can’t buy much.
Or stop sending out social security and medicare payment checks.
Even raising taxes would tend to bring oil prices down.
Raising interest rates certainly helps bring the price of oil down.
Putting interest rates up ‘in order to tame inflation’ would be the most politically acceptable, rather than raising taxes, cutting pensions and welfare, etc.
Of course they have kept the ‘pandemic’ narrative simmering in order to use as and when they wish.
A failing government quickly leads to a cut in pensions and welfare. History shows that failing governments are likely outcomes of economies that hit limits.
Maybe rationing oil use by price is the whole point?
I visualize a day when only Kulm and his peers will be able to afford to travel on powered private transport. The peasants will be lucky if they can afford a donkey.
But to reach that goal, it is necessary to create the conditions for rationing by price by ensuring prices stay high and supplies stay tight.
Kulm will be zombie food.
No not him he will remain on top somehow and his ascot will barely be ruffled.
There are people who always stay near the top and survive and I inherited such genes.
Selbstlob stinkt.
Well, methinks I will avoid such fate
Maybe, Kulm.
The Devil is said to favour his own after all!
I think that raising the price of heavy oil to the point that makes it profitable to extract and process, it is the whole point. If this happens, there are huge deposits of heavy oil around the world.
With much higher heavy oil prices, we can have a surge in heavy oil production that, at some point–perhaps, say, 15 or 20 years from now–will allow major economic growth. But before that happens, the economy will likely need to shrink back and reorganize in a way that allows the economy to use diesel and jet fuel in a more economic way.
Gail , it is not extraction but refining and location that is the bottleneck .
Actually, the price needs to rise high enough for all of the pieces, including transport to the location of sale. Difficult issues!
Trucker strike should do it. Say every other week.
Perhaps Trump was exaggerating regarding the truce on energy infrastructure:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ukrainian-drones-hit-russian-nuclear-plant-days-after-trump-energy-truce-plea
as of Thursday morning a Russian nuclear plant was apparently targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack.
A drone hit the cooling tower of a reactor unit at Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the International Atomic Energy Agency has announced Friday.
The unit was operating at the time, but its operating mode was unchanged and no fire broke out.
The UN agency’s director Rafael Grossi declared in a statement that “all attacks on nuclear facilities are unacceptable as they could endanger nuclear safety and security, irrespective of where they occur.”
He urged “maximum military restraint to prevent the risk of a nuclear accident” – which remains a top dangerous reality of the battlefield in the context of the Ukraine war.
Regarding Europe+Ukraine vs. Russia, and USA+Israel vs. Iran, the consequences turned EXISTENTIAL to the parts involved and there won’t be any negotiations anymore, they’ll go all the way until their enemy is completely destroyed, even if millions die, or even if they need to use nuclear weapons.
Donald Tusk just admitted that Ukraine is taking 27,000 casualties per month.
https://wydarzenia.interia.pl/kraj/news-tusk-podal-najbardziej-prawdopodobny-scenariusz-hybrydowe-ud,nId,23545301
“The new Russian strategy and, above all, new technical capabilities, namely jet drones, also mean much greater losses on the Ukrainian side.
“Our Ukrainian partners have informed me that recently, the number of deaths and injuries per month has reached 27,000.
“And these are, of course, records in the saddest sense of the word,” the Prime Minister stated, adding that “with this trend, winter in Ukraine could indeed be disastrous.”
One can almost taste the milk of human kindness welling up in Tusk’s heart….
Wretched indeed to live in crossroads territory like the Ukraine.
Researchers have just worked out that the brain is actually two separate organs that have moved into a single location.
“Having the brain as one organ would probably be more efficient, but we rely on this primordial way to make the brain as two separate pieces,” said Dr Kyle Loh, associate professor of developmental biology at Stanford.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/brain-two-organs-stanford-science-research-b3052548.html
Human brain is actually two separate organs, scientists find
The Stanford University breakthrough stands to open new doors for research into fatal neurodegenerative diseases
The human brain is not a single organ, but two separate systems that evolved independently before fusing together, according to groundbreaking new research.
Scientists at Stanford University made the discovery while trying to solve a longstanding laboratory puzzle: why [hind] brain stem cells were nearly impossible to grow in a dish, while cells from the front of the brain grew with ease.
By examining how the brain forms in its earliest stages, the team discovered that the front and back sections of the organ arise from completely different cellular starting blocks.
It had been believed that the entire brain developed from a single master parent cell.
However, by observing embryos during gastrulation — the critical developmental stage where a simple cluster of cells begins organising into actual body structures — the Stanford team has identified two distinct cell groups.
One cell group was hardwired exclusively to form the front of the brain, while the other was committed solely to creating the back. Further analysis showed the genetic instructions inside these two groups were packaged in entirely different ways, locking them onto separate paths that never cross.
“Having the brain as one organ would probably be more efficient, but we rely on this primordial way to make the brain as two separate pieces,” said Dr Kyle Loh, associate professor of developmental biology at Stanford.
Researchers believe that in distant evolutionary history, these two systems existed in separate physical locations within primitive animals — similar to how jellyfish possess separate nervous networks across different parts of their body.
The hindbrain, located at the base of the skull, acts as the body’s automatic control centre, governing survival functions like heart rate, breathing, and sleep cycles.
The midbrain and forebrain handle high-level thinking, including language, logic, and abstract reasoning.
Despite their separate origins, the two systems integrate seamlessly to carry out daily tasks.
The researchers discovered the same dual-system structure in acorn worms – marine creatures sharing a distant common ancestor with humans indicating this two-part design dates back at least 500 million years.
The findings, published in Nature Neuroscience, mark a major breakthrough for medical research.
Armed with the knowledge of how hindbrain cells uniquely form, the team has successfully turned human stem cells into becoming functional hindbrain motor neurons in a lab for the first time.
For researchers, the ability to produce these specific nerve cells is expected to dramatically accelerate research into fatal neurodegenerative conditions like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and spinal muscular atrophy (SMA), which specifically target and destroy motor neurons in the lower brain.
“Our ability to create large numbers of human hindbrain motor neurons in a petri dish from stem cells offers a new approach to model these diseases,” Jokhai said.
“The hope would be to one day provide regenerative therapies for patients suffering from the numerous neurodegenerative diseases that exist.”
Interesting!
So, we are basically Dolphins then. Take that Douglas Adams!!
Nipples for men!?
https://x.com/Nostre_damus/status/2100964421212492195
>> I don’t know who needs to hear this but
>> Iran is not mobilizing 1M troops now because the war is ending, they are mobilizing because the war is just getting started
Perhaps a large dip in the world economy is needed now that world diesel supply is down. This might include lower population.
“don’t know who needs to hear this but”
No one. It didn’t happen.
Janfada-e-Iran happened, which was a mix of celebration(it’s important to let the people relax a little) and practical patriotism.
About half a million signed up for today’s event, from a total of about 31 million that have already signed up for when needed(yes, a potential 31 million strong fighting force). This is not a reaction, rather a long planned training and for want of a better word, community event.
Here’s a write up(Lebanese)
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/exclusive—fedayeen-of-iran-to-showcase-one-of-largest-dril
Short videos and pictures(some may be surprised to see a rabbi)
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/247842/Sacrifice-for-Iran-Janfada-e-Iran-rallies-in-Tehran-start
Lots of articles
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en
Iran, as stated by them multiple times from the beginning, are in for the long game and there’s no easier way to keep the population up for the fight, than reminding them they it is theirs.
If Iran has “mobilised 1 million troops” I’ve seen no mention of it in any regional media.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Iranian military go into other states eventually, but they already have a large military force and wherever they potentially go in to, it will be with the blessing of at least a reasonable percentage of the various tribes making up the state(Kuwait, Bahrain or Iraq I would guess) and probably be more of a stabilisation force than invader(look at Russia and the strange situation in Syria, to see how quickly things flip).
>> It didn’t happen.
The report says “mobilization”, not “already mobilized”. I don’t know for sure whether it’s true or not, just linking the content. Anyway, there are many such reports over the last day. Here, for example:
https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2100828067857826050
>> ⚡️BREAKING: Mobilization has Begun in Tehran with the aim of Forming 1,000 Battalions and will now be Expanded to the Entire Country
That’s to go into Saudi not to hold the line. Shia vs Sunni feud showdown. Turkiye and Paki will sign on for a piece of that. They all love this shit. Looking like the ISIS filth is coming out of woodwork in Syria. Jolani actually was the cleanest shirt but that ain’t saying much.Quite the party shaping up and everyone with a score to settle and in the mood to do so. If true Iran is biting off quite a bit. Finish the job monarchs gone. Perhaps the only possible reality that could save Trump’s ass. US will participate with special forces. No oil out of region in our lifetime of course. And of course neither Russia or China can allow a Iran loss. There’s a name for this sort of party.
Diesel getting stockpiled for conflict and no you won’t find a graph of that. And yes Saudi buying diesel. Big badda boom.
you’re a Millenial or Gen-X to use that reference, yes?
I’m a doomenial.
I don’t see Iran going into Saudi. Why bother when they can finish it from distance, in a single weekend.
Then there’s the tribes, who in the oil areas are mostly Shia and not forgetting, to the south and more than happy to deal with the problem(a problem that has murdered millions of their people), we have AnsarAllah(them and the tribes are already working together).
https://www.asiaticglobalorder.com/p/the-end-of-the-saudi-crown-prince
The Sunni – Shia thing is massively overplayed, but someone has started murdering Sunni clerics in Shia areas and trying to pass blame(no need to guess who), so not surprising to see that lie doing the rounds again(we have a very limited script in the west it would appear). Even MBS tried to accuse AnsarAllah of attacking Mecca and not a single person in the whole region believed a single word, even for a single second, because they have read the Koran(the Prophet is Yemen and will lead the way). The last high up Yemeni military commander to be killed was Sunni, but that won’t be in western media, because it contradicts the long built script. Everyone can smell the fear emanating from Riyadh, that’s why non Muslim MBS is throwing everything at Yemen.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/saudi-airstrikes-on-yemen-reach-300-this-week–yemeni-armed
I wonder if they are buying kerosene rather than diesel. Not to worry as AnsarAllah have been busy doing business with the Chinese, for satellite tracking(deal done in Muscat, which did make me smile).
Are the west trying to bring their ISIS/ISIL/Al Nusra/a thousand other names creation back to relevance?
Of course they are, those clerics didn’t murder themselves. That’s not going to end well, but desperation makes people do strange things. Whoever told you that the West’s blood soaked rag was the cleanest shirt, is clearly lying to you. I’d stop listening.
Why didn’t Russia just destroy Donbass with missiles? Eastern Saudi is Shia turf. Iran regards it as theirs and just like Russia if they want it they have to go fetch it. These is WW2 geography being rewritten. See many missiles falling in eastern Saudi? And just like the resources in the Donbass guess what’s under the dirt in eastern Saudi.
If you think this is not primarily a Shia Sunni conflict we disagree. Have you spent any time with these people? They view each other as apostate.. Far worse than infidels. This pot has been simmering for millennium. One of the most intense hates humanity is capable of mixed up with the ubiquitous gang psychology and radically different political philosophy inherent to theological differences and elitism to boot.
You see any missiles coming down on you know who? No. Everyone knows everyone here.
The wealth held the grenade together. Someone decided to pull the pin.
As far as the cleanest shirt. I guess I’m a softy. I would like to see the world step in when there is genocide and slavery like the ISIS massacres. Beside that none of USA business. I’m what some call a isolationist. Which doesn’t mean I don’t wish for cooperation. I would like that very much. That’s not even possible now.Now every country is on its own. Other countries problems shit. With our situation?
This is the end. My musings about the war are for fun. Someone has pulled the pin.
“Have you spent any time with these people”
Lived with them(18 mths) and have Sunni relatives.
I’ve posted before about the “divide” and it’s something that has been egged on relentlessly by the west(the fake monarchs are chosen for that very reason). Take the western influence out(and their fake monarchs) and you will see lots of agreements and deals(they’re already there) with a fair bit of fighting until positions are understood(like everywhere). Saudi clerics are noticeable in their silence, when this should be the gift from Allah, showing the barbarity of the Shia. So far nothing but crickets and this is repeated all over the Sunni world(a few dumb gobshites no doubt).
It’ll be no bed of roses, but neither will it be the constant religious war that corporate media(and service, nothing does it like service) plants into the ignorant mind.
I’ve posted one of the below before and we can’t ignore the history of malignant outside influence, if we want to understand what divide exists(rather than an easy excuse for our interference) and how that would influence matters when the world genociders eventually piss off. It’s not the fiction we are told in the west.
https://substack.com/@marasaidwhat/p-206386710?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
https://substack.com/@marasaidwhat/p-208031206?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
If you want to know why things are getting bombed in Saudi ask AnsarAllah. They have their own goals and despite the BS that’s pumped out, will not change that to suit Iran. They are very much their own people, even more so than the Iranians and the Iranians know this. They are clearly working in tandem, but a proxy they are not.
The language from Iranian officials paints a different picture of the future than the one you are promoting(western corporate) and fits well with their actions and language throughout, which is noted by all regional actors(not just theirs).
https://www.tasnimnews.ir/en/news/2026/09/19/3700539/iran-calls-for-regional-security-without-foreign-intervention
Don’t worry dog, maybe they will do a better job than us(real low bar) and we can then get on with looking at what’s being prepared for us. Until then, here’s a song to cheer you up(it’s got a string section 😁)
https://youtu.be/qj3QPx089g4?si=6PeKDFqdja7q9za9
Like I said we have different opinions on this. My experience is there are two faces. They know very well there is no tolerance for religious intolerance in the west. The real deal is something private. And of course everyone is a individual also. Every individual has different things in their heart. And this goes across leaders also. Some say this some say that.
It’s me that’s repeating talking points? I’d say that for you. Your orientation is absaloutly clear. You have picked who you think is righteous and who is unrighteous. Your talking points came from somewhere too. I regard mine as more flexible and objectiv . I think that’s fairly clear if you won’t even acknowledge fairly easy outcomes to forecast like like Iran physically occupying Shia Saudi areas because you see that as a argument against Shia. In fact unable to look at my words objectively because you only see for or against.
People are not angels. People are individuals. They are capable of things I considerable admirable. Capable of things I consider despicable. I try to keep my ledger on the admirable side. Am I successful? Who knows.
I think it’s crazy to think any group of people are angels others devils As I mentioned things like genocide and slavery deeply disturb me. I think the USA should leave the region and never return. The damage is done now. You can’t undo this train wreck. IMO that will have far reaching effects where I live in the USA not musings about the middle east.
Like you said time will tell. You see a power sharing of a different nature arising than I do even as the missiles are traded. We will see. Obviously Iran is headed toward dominance in the region. You see that as accepted by the Sunni power players. Obviously you feel Shia will be fair in this dominance. Sunni population vastly outnumbers Shia population. That the Shia Sunni animosity is a western creation not something organic. Certainly it’s been exploited. I disagree it is minor or a western fabrication .My opinion is that is unlikely that Shia dominance will occur without significant Sunni resistance.
Actually I think Irans attack on the pipeline in response to US unwise. US hits Iran and Iran hits Saudi? It reveals that ultimately there is no chance for Iran to leave things as they are. Iran intends to bring Saudi under the direct control of the Shia Islamic revolution. It’s not this goal I think is unwise it is what it is. I think there timing is off and they achieve the same thing with a lot less risk in a few years. More gently and with greater chance of achieving a peaceful unified region. I feel that Iran has fallen into the trap of trusting momentum. Since they also explicitly feel God is on their side that also can be a big problem although certainly Iran has not done that without careful planning and preparation.
I think Sunni powers understood why Iran has taken control of the strait. The attack on the pipeline is different. It’s message is different. The intent it demonstrates is different.
I have no dog on this fight. I actually hope you are right. I would hope all people learn to live in cooperation and the thing so elusive that I question its existence. Justice. That’s not what I have experienced in regards to what I see the future of the region as. It’s certainly not what is there now. Nor is it demonstrated in the past. Of course here you have your beliefs who is “bad” who is “good” and who is responsible for your imaginary non reality not occuring. Except that’s not where the missiles are falling. The missiles are falling on Sunnis. Maybe you should send a memo to Iran to inform them?
I think we agree on one thing though. Trump’s actions have a created a catastrophe for the USA. Call me selfish but actually I am a bit more concerned about that since I planned on inhabiting this place a bit longer. These sort of decisions are being made throughout the world although Trump is the most extreme example. I hoped for peace and cooperation where I live also. Like I said perhaps selfish. Any ideas I have about the region are just musings while the realities of energy reduction will be far different.
I have both Sunni and Shia friends over several countries and dog, you need to trust Fitz on this one. It’s way overplayed.
I’d say that they were the same thing, just being sensationalised to make it look more than it is. Iran is at war, a war they have prepared to be a long one. With that in mind, they would have considered how to keep the people not just on side, but feeling active(whilst boosting the comradery). This is just one if those many steps from my perspective(there is training and grouping, but they all go home at night, like the TA).
One thing I have been thinking of concerning Iran and the present situation, is that for a country that has a very large internal market, all these events(they still have nightly gatherings) are great for not only morale, but also the internal economy.
The Kurds were dumb enough to follow instructions and start gathering at the border and in a single night, they were no more. Everyone in the region is painfully aware of this, so unless Pakistan put in those claimed restrictions because they need the fuel for their upcoming invasion of Iran, I don’t see exactly who the threat is(trained men everywhere is handy against small fast incursions).
Lots of at least semi trained replacements, if the need arises, coupled with the above mentioned benifits, is my view.
Dictatorships love conscription: it reinforces their authority and the national idea.
I wouldn’t conclude they are even expected to fight.
It was one of the ways Franco kept his boot on the Spanish.
My father rebelled, and ended up breaking stones in a military prison. Rather good exercise! Most complied.
His uncle had been forced to fight for Franco in the Civil War, and died, very young, in the Basque mountains doing so.
Update
https://x.com/IranObserver0/status/2099729858452418701
>> All Iranians have Received a SMS Message to Register for Mobilization
>> The Iranian Armed Forces are beginning to train 1,000 new Battalions (about one Million People)
The reason the endgame scenario started to form for me wasn’t because of JPM’s piece about how they can’t model the endgame. It was because of this vitally important news today about the Saudis pleading with China to help get the oil out of the Oman lane.
From the start of this conflict, China has been the black-box variable, but some of its recent actions make me think I may have read China’s incentives correctly from the start.
For China, the Strait of Hormuz issue is also an all-or-nothing dilemma. If the US were to win the war and restore the Strait to its pre-war status, the security arrangements that would need to be put in place to prevent another closure by Iran would almost guarantee that China would be held hostage at a later date.
Conversely, if Iran controls the Strait, China would effectively become the region’s new peace guarantor. Geopolitically, this is the move of the century.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2100838334201565414
China getting involved… what a nightmare that would be for just about everyone… especially China.
Sirius Report says China is getting involved in mediation / last US offramp.
2M troops and a kind word get you a lot farther than a kind word alone. Illegal encampment might very well be collateral damage in all this.
The world economy cannot go down by too much–at least we hope. Perhaps a little sense will be added with China’s input.
Coming shortly to a theater near you .
” BREAKING: Pakistan has imposed “lockdown-like” measures amid its fuel and gas crisis due to historically low supply, including fuel allocation reductions and a mandatory 9 PM market closure.
Details include:
1. Pakistan has now mandated all markets to close by 9 PM and the purchase of new government vehicles has been banned
2. The country is also implementing a 50% cut in fuel allocations for government vehicles
3. The government has announced a 5% reduction in non-employee-related spending and banned official foreign visits, urging virtual meetings instead
4. Official dinners have been prohibited, except those hosted for foreign visitors and delegations
Today marks day number 202 of the Iran War.
Update .
Everyone is focused on the paper price of oil falling today. But look at what is happening in the physical market. Things are escalating fast.
The cost of shipping 2 million barrels of oil jumped another 10%+ today to $22.50 per barrel.
https://x.com/KarelMercx/status/2100890933436760153/photo/1
Joliet Refinery down (US), Whiting Refinery (US) partially operating due to power outage, Irving is closing down in Canada for maintenance soon. It also requires Persian Gulf crude.
Russia’s diesel exports halted, Saudi Aramco bidding for diesel in Europe (THEY ARE BUYING IT BACK FROM EUROPE!!!), and the US considering a halt to exports. Does that affect Canada and Mexico? It certainly affects Europe.
And of course, there is a Trucker Strike being threatened. Its easier to make happen if there is no diesel in places.
The new US legislation that was passed would allow tariffs of up to 100% on the top five countries importing crude oil from Russia. These top countries would include China and India. These countries have refineries of the type needed to handle the heavier crude oil that Russia provides. Thus, a 100% tariff would indirectly future reduce diesel supplies in the immediate future.
If these countries cannot get this heavy oil from Russia, they will bid up the price of heavy oil from Canada, Australia, and everywhere else it is available. Over the long term, this might be helpful. With higher prices of the heavy oil of all types, it might make it possible to create more diesel in total. There are a huge amount of heavy oil resources in the world. If the price can be bid up enough, it might be profitable to extract it.
So, as crazy as it sounds, this approach might be helpful over the long run. Even the US has some heavy oil resources that it has not been economic to extract. Saudi Arabia does, as well. With current approaches, this oil tends to have a low EROEI. But improved techniques can perhaps change the situation. Chevron has been working on this issue for years. Exxon seems to be willing now to go into Venezuela.
Amazing: “Saudi Aramco bidding for diesel in Europe (THEY ARE BUYING IT BACK FROM EUROPE!!!),”
Wild!
This is completely insane. No Saudi crude has left Yanbu since 11 September (Vortexa).
https://x.com/SCapStrategist/status/2100982501397397784
Any truck without diesel is a mi strike.
A truck without diesel can’t go far. The same is true of agricultural equipment that runs on diesel.
Wow!
This is one kind of cutback we expect pretty much everywhere, with inadequate oil supplies.
Eduard Buraš, an adviser to Ukrainian industrialists: ‘I’ll be blunt: the situation is very bad’
In an interview with Postoj, Eduard Buraš explains why the coming winter will be the worst for Ukrainians since the outbreak of the war, and what role the massive damage to Ukraine’s energy sector and agriculture plays in this.
https://www.postoj.sk/200269/budem-hovorit-bez-prikras-situacia-je-velmi-zla
This is sad, but with the war, it is pretty much inevitable, I am afraid.
FUELS CRISIS
I found very interesting last article by Antonio Turiel:
https://crashoil.blogspot.com/2026/09/hasta-que-paso-de-todo.html
We talked about this a few days ago. Turiel is concerned about the decline in diesel availability. He and some of his friends will now lead groups to try to do something about the situation. I am not quite sure what, but one image looked somewhat like a mob. He talks about working with existing groups.
These are some links to the previous discussion:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/08/05/affordability-not-scarcity-is-the-real-energy-crisis/comment-page-11/#comment-518593
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/08/05/affordability-not-scarcity-is-the-real-energy-crisis/comment-page-11/#comment-518597
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/08/05/affordability-not-scarcity-is-the-real-energy-crisis/comment-page-11/#comment-518602
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/08/05/affordability-not-scarcity-is-the-real-energy-crisis/comment-page-11/#comment-518637
I didn’t see your previous posts, sorry.
Concerning the groups, from what I understand reading his interventions, he wants to work with current local groups to help to organize normal people of local communities (of existing groups of resistance).
Maybe it will not work, but it is something.
He is perfectly aware that there are no restorative solutions, especially in Spain.
So, in my view, he simply wants to minimize a little the big damage.
He doesn’t expect anything from reach people.
Actually I think that he is pretty in line with what you say and what we say here, so I would say: good boy Antonio, thanks.
🙂
‘rich’ not ‘reach’
How can he organize local people to do anything?
As I think about it, what local groups can do is try to get taxes down, so that farmers and truckers can afford higher-priced diesel.
The way taxes can go down is by eliminating current government programs of many kinds: Pensions for the elderly. Health programs. Free schools for children. Paving roads.
In fact, governments may collapse completely, in the way that the central government of the Soviet Union went down in 1991. This can still leave other governmental organizations in place. But such a collapse is an easy way to eliminate popular programs like pensions and health programs.
Cut those things out, and a modern urbanised society cannot survive.
I looked at some of Turiel’s recent posts: it is just the usual ‘we urgently need to change the direction of this civilisation’ sort of thing.
Hopeless and pointless: how many have said the same thing for 60 or more years?
Certainly not advocating civil insurrection as far as I can see.
Divorce is an implosion.
“Moving Back in with Parents After Turning 30. Expensive Housing Is Putting Slovaks in a Situation They Didn’t Anticipate
Extremely high real estate prices are complicating life for Slovaks even after divorce. Former partners remain under the same roof, even though they want to separate, because they can’t afford to buy out their ex-partner or afford their own housing. Divorce, therefore, does not end their life together—it marks the beginning of a struggle for housing. As a result, a trend known as “hidden homelessness” is on the rise in Slovakia.
Divorce in and of itself is a difficult time in one’s life, often compounded by the necessity of leaving the shared home. Data from the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic for 2024 showed that the highest rate of divorce occurs among people aged 35 to 39—that is, established individuals in a relatively stable financial situation. Nevertheless, housing remains a significant issue during divorce, and Slovak law even specifically addresses the use of a shared apartment after divorce and alternative housing arrangements. Former partners often remain under the same roof, even though it is uncomfortable for them—they simply have no other choice.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/domace/clanok/2042887-slovakov-ohrozuje-novy-problem-tridsiatnici-po-rokoch-budovania-zivota-nemaju-kde-zit
“Former partners often remain under the same roof, even though it is uncomfortable for them—they simply have no other choice.”
I am not sure I have run into this, precisely. I have seen more divorced parents moving back in with their own parents. In ages past, multiple generations lived in the same house.
People need to learn how to get along with each other. Without enough funds to pay for their expenses while living together, there is little possibility of being able to support two households.
Well,you know marriage can be a kind of slow, painfully unfolding explosion, so implosion through divorce sounds preferable.
Always try to look on the bright side of things, MG old chap!
It is about adapting to reality, not about beautiful photos and a wealth of exclusive experiences. Nowadays, it is even about travelling less.
That is why some people are simply invisible to strangers: they do not participate in this publicity-driven world.
Moreover, our complex world is very fragile, as people are fundamentally dependent on services provided by others.
Recently, one of my friends found his soulmate in the scientific field they both work in, after his wife, who was an economist, divorced him some years ago. Age differences don’t matter.
Good to read of a happy ending.
My twice-divorced friend in Vienna landed on his feet with wife No.3: plump, cheerful and a very good cook.
No.2 was younger and very sexy, but turned out to be a nut job.
No1 broke his heart.
We all know that divorce rates rose when women increasingly felt that they could earn enough to move away from husbands who had one deficiency or another. As that situation changes, it is inevitable that divorce rates need to fall. What is the point of a divorce, if a person still needs to live with the person in question and get along with him/her? Or perhaps, young people live with parents longer, and never get married.
Creating a household requires resources: a constant flow of heat and food. Some people take this for granted until disruptions begin.
And two households require even more energy.
That is why you have so many people on dating sites: they are trying to find an ideal partner, basically, an outdated model of a person, as the problem is deeper – resources for partnership, accepting the imploding reality, living with less.
” When money is tight husband and wife will fight ” — My FCA told me 40 years ago . 🤣🤣
This is valid especially for the city and the places where there are no local resources. Also many former rural areas turned into town like areas, the soil is degraded, rural jobs disappeared.
‘When money flies out of the window, love walks out of the door’!!
If you wanna see where the internet is headed. Just go to your local library.
You will have to log on and verify who you are.
You will get a predetermined amount of time per day.
And certain websites will be blocked.
And they’re going to use “safety” trojan horses to accomplish this. (child porn, cyber crime, etc)
I remember traveling to Italy years ago. The most internet access that was available at the hotel where I stayed was half an hour. I may even have needed to pay extra for that privilege.
I sincerely doubt the overall online time restriction will be implemented. There are too many entities that want to sell consumers to vendors, which means more eyes on the screens. Then there’s internet banking and financial trading, which needs to be available on demand in order to be effective, and all those little emergencies that Google helps you our with, such as how to remove red wine stains from your sofa, or is the local Italian restaurant open this evening, or what’s the fastest route to get from A to B.
I can conveniently buy so many of the things I need only online now: I never use Amazon, but the range of things available in town has shrunk, and many are specialised from shops in far-flung parts of the country.
The little old hardware merchant which had everything has disappeared, selling the premises for £12m to the university to build a new accommodation block, of all things. And so on.
In the AI area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruQZECOW6qo
China’s Huawei Blows Up The Entire Tech Market With This BIG ANNOUNCEMENT
Nvidia’s own CEO just told the world he’s given up on the Chinese chip market. Not a leaked memo. Not an analyst rumor. Jensen Huang, on camera, saying Nvidia has “largely conceded” the AI chip market in China to one company. That’s not even the interesting part. The company he conceded it to spent the last six years locked out of the world’s most advanced chipmaking machines, banned from buying the lithography tools everyone assumes you need to compete at the frontier of AI hardware. And it just published a chip roadmap through 2028 anyway. This is Huawei, and this is the announcement that just rewrote the rules of who gets to build the future of computing.
Mexico clones the Geran 5 . The Geran 5 is Russias jet propelled shahed upgrade. It’s speed is significant in many ways but notably it makes intercept by by the FPV drones Ukraine has developed ineffective as well as intercept by helicopters and light aircraft with improvised machine guns also fielded by Ukraine much more difficult.
Fixed wing UAV affordable weapon technology is proliferating rapidly and the Americas will not be excluded. Does Mexico have a equivalent of Iran and Russias long range guidance systems that are apparently being done with cell phone technology? ( Ted Postal). While the UAV proliferation is concerning the proliferation of the guidance systems would be more so. These weapons will change the nature of any future conflicts like for instance Falklands round 2 should it occur. Since the attack on the Saudi pipeline was launched from Iraq it probably was a shahed class and not even jet propelled demonstrating the economic destruction possible from even the not jet engine UAV. If current events are any guide proliferation of fixed wing UAV weapons are particularly concerning in any geographical region that has oil infrastructure. The proliferation of fixed wing UAV is probably inevitable now regardless of the outcomes of current wars.
Mexico’s revealing of Geran clone manufacture could well be the start of a central and south American UAV arms race both by nations and non state actors. The cartels in Mexico openly compete with the government in weapon technology and have the funding to do so. As outlined in the recent NPR program fixed wing UAV weapons are the equivalent of cruise missiles in both accuracy and payload at a fraction of the cost and accessable technology. They can be launched without rocket assist from the bed of a pickup truck to get them airborne and the components that manufacture them can be transported in passenger vehicles. Considering how illicit drugs transit in the region the possibility to prevent proliferation of fixed wing UAV would seem to pose a problem.
https://x.com/Latinar_rybar/status/2100710468998635630/video/1
I notice that the link shows how far these drones might fly. Perhaps Trump should start trying to make friends with other countries.
“Mexico has copied Geran-5 drones”
Maybe, but maybe it’s just China providing Mexico with components to assemble or the fully assembled drone. I wouldn’t at all put it past them to overstate their achievement. If China is doing it, and they do have a strong connection to Mexico, then that is actually more worrying for US natsec.
Good point!
In the previous post below the FARC attack in Columbian radar facilities was documented.
Why is FARC attacking radar suddenly? They have no f16. They have no Apaches.
Because just as I have been mentioning every revolutionary group, terrorist organization and criminal cartel has noted the revolutionary changes in affordability and capabilities of the new UAV weapon technologies not just nation states.
FARC is following the Iran blueprint. Step one. Destroy hyper expensive radar facilities with inexpensive drones. Except FARC is not a tiny portion as sophisticated as IRGC showing there hand now. That doesn’t mean the blueprint is flawed.
Yes it takes Chinese components. Just like fentanyl takes Chinese precursors. Why China sells such things is a good question and I don’t have the answer. It could be profit but China is in a position to define who gets the pivotal conventional military technology of our time that is radically more affordable. To think that sales would merely be based on profit would infer the Chinese are dumber than bricks and they are far from that.. so why? We don’t know. We will never know. If we do know it will be a lie.
Venezuela was going to get Shahed production. The Ukraine war had already created consciousness of the military power of UAV. But that was nothing. Iran has demonstrated UAV weapon technology can compete with world powers. Venezuela was becoming a forward operating base for China and to a lessor extent Russia just like Ukraine. Now the question is did the actions taken eradicate the threat of UAV proliferation? Of course not. The example is illicit drug precursors that are sold in world trade. If UAV components are sold without end use certificates UAV weapons will proliferate.
Fentanyl could end tomorrow. Just like methaqualone ended instantly. Just like Preludin ended instantly. The world said these things are not beneficial. Too much addictive qualities. Obviously not worth the benefits. Industrial manufacture of the precursors ended. Poof. Gone. But the world manufacturers have to agree. They have to have a reason for agreeing. They have to have a sense of common good not adversity . There can’t be a greater purpose.
The people profiting have to agree to if they have power. And they don’t. Or it serves greater purpose
. If precursors proliferate legalization is the most effective policy by far to reduce suffering. That’s demonstrated by the reduction in fentanyl use we see. Fentanyl is defacto legal in many cities with zero enforcement. This allows the horror of addiction to be witnessed and serve as a deterent. Sacrifice of a few is accepted to serve as a example for the many. But why when precursor eradication has proven literally 100 percent effective?
It terms of fentanyl the corner was turned even prior to the precursor agreement which only includes North America and thus is ineffective. What is 100 percent effective is cessation of precursor manufacture not only allowing shipment to the wild west. Mostly I attribute reduction in fentanyl addiction to awareness that you are not gonna play with that dragon and walk away. Dracarys. :). As pathetic as a heroin junkie is a goony fentanyl junkie is not real sexy. When you have the population encouraged to carry Narcan like sunblock yes they get a clue. Also now the kids understand. Every single pill out there is fentanyl not anything else. Shape size color doesn’t matter. It’s fentanyl. Prior the kids thought it was a smaller nicer dragon.
UAV components manufacture and distribution will have very obvious consequences and they will be much more destructive than arms proliferation of the past. Every revolutionary group, terrorist group and criminal cartel gets a air force. The Iran blueprint like all blueprints that demonstrate radical effectiveness and affordability in war and force projection will be incorporated as SOP.
Fentanyl precursors destroy lives. UAV components destroy infrastructure. The fentanyl destruction is on the down slope. The UAV destruction is in its infancy. The rush to compete is just starting . It’s small world but south America is still the wild west as are many parts of the world
Or maybe we could get along and agree that these UAV components are not beneficial? End it before it starts.now would be the time. Once the components are manufactured and stockpiled their consequences are baked in. Or are the components beneficial just not for us? We don’t know. We will never know. And if we do know it will be a lie.
Thanks! Columbia is another country with “not enough to go around.” FARC is an organization within Columbia that has been operating on and off for many years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revolutionary_Armed_Forces_of_Colombia
Regarding UAV components, these are drone components. You say:
Fentanyl precursors destroy lives. UAV components destroy infrastructure. The fentanyl destruction is on the down slope. The UAV destruction is in its infancy. The rush to compete is just starting . It’s small world but south America is still the wild west as are many parts of the world.
Or maybe we could get along and agree that these UAV components are not beneficial? End it before it starts.now would be the time. Once the components are manufactured and stockpiled their consequences are baked in. Or are the components beneficial just not for us? We don’t know. We will never know. And if we do know it will be a lie.
You may have read about Amazon Web Services not being available any more in the Middle East. Kevin Walmsley has a video about Iran making AWS’s data center in the UAE, worth billions of dollars, a target early in the fighting. If any more replacements are built, they are likely to be targets again. Hardening them against drone attacks will greatly increase their costs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLri2xAKafE
Iran spent $1 million to wipe out $30 billion in data center plans, and take down Amazon in the ME
IMO It’s worth noting that 96 percent of the oil that the Joliet refinery currently suffering a power outage refines is Canadian in origin.
Great oil for making diesel.
BS.
They’re running out of oil. Just like California.
We can never tell from announcements.
BREAKING: Reported diesel shortages and outages in California, Florida and Texas
https://x.com/Kalshi/status/2100629604729864391
This is a Newsweek article quoted on X.
Photos appearing to show gas stations running out of diesel have spread across social media as U.S. fuel prices climb to record highs, but industry data does not currently point to any widespread shortages.
One image posted on X showed a Valero station in North Texas displaying an “out of diesel” notice. Another post on X said a station in Orlando, Florida, had also run out. However, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, cautioned against interpreting individual station outages as evidence of national shortages. “GasBuddy is not seeing any high level outages in our data, nor through our Pay with GasBuddy card,” De Haan wrote on X, adding that current outages remained within normal levels.
Judgment Day for the Middle of the Barrel: Karl Miller’s Warning That Diesel Has Stopped Meeting Demand
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/judgment-day-for-the-middle-of-the?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1225061&post_id=216221354&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
From the link:
Karl Miller’s latest private assessment, dated September 16 and titled “Judgment Day Has Arrived,” makes a single governing claim about diesel, jet fuel, and kerosene: physical demand is now outrunning promptly deliverable supply. Not the price of the barrel — the delivery of it.
In Miller’s framing the market has crossed from a pricing problem, which money solves, to a deliverability problem, which money alone does not. The next phase, he argues, forces buyers to compete not just for fuel but for delivery capacity and for the cash to fund both at once.
Also:
A national statistic can look adequate while individual nodes fail, because fuel that exists in the wrong place, in the wrong grade, or under someone else’s contract does not cover a missed delivery.
And
credit becomes a supply constraint. A buyer can be perfectly solvent on annual earnings and still lack the working capital to prepay a larger cargo, meet collateral calls, and carry slower-moving inventory all at the same time. When that happens, the fuel goes to whoever can fund it, not whoever needs it most. Financially weaker importers can lose access before larger economies feel the squeeze at all.
Regarding airline fuel:
hedging can change what a carrier pays, but it cannot conjure a delivery that the airport cannot physically make.
Near the end:
Either supply recovers or consumption falls, and consumption falling is not the crisis being escaped. It is the crisis arriving.
Notice there is zero war footage. Zero war reporters on the ground.
It’s a “Faith” based war.
Except we do see videos of burning ships, and burning refineries.
We have virtually no people on the ground in the Middle East where the fighting is going on.
I think the relative handful of injured soldiers from the US, and the little bit of information about them, has kept the story off the front pages. In fact, it seems to be hidden away in fairly technical articles, and President Trump puts out all kinds of stories in which the US seems to be in control of the situation.
Isn’t this what FE said? Fake everything?
FE is right.
That’s why I think he went mad.
Just too many psyops. Too many sheeple. 🙁
You’ll see it on Telegram. Footage tends to be published by locals and distributed through various channels.
He didn’t necessarily go mad. I’d say he just opted out of normal society in semi despair/disillusionment at the way the world’s run.
Joel Smalley – his blog was Metatron, on Substack – noted from 2020 onwards that the narrative was inconsistent with the evidence. He stopped blogging in April 2026. He’s presumably tending his garden. Here in England normal weather has returned and everything is green and lush again.
Green, lush and – after a shower – sparkling.
Or, as a Lady once exclaimed before one of Constable’s paintings:
‘How fresh, how dewy, how exhilarating!’
FE is on an end of the world US tour until sometime in October.
A lot of people are talking about the victory of Houthis and the decline of KSA.
However I had a strange idea.
As KSA and Russia and the Gulf are knocked out, the world will have to live with oil resources controlled by US and its allies.
This data is from April 2026Midd
https://energynow.com/2026/04/half-the-worlds-oil-comes-from-just-five-countries-visual-capitalist/
y
Middle Eastern Oil takes 25%
Russian oil takes 10%
The oil in other places are controlled by USA and its allies, plus China which has barely enough for itself
The ruckus in the middle east only makes US position stronger.
Granted, there will be a big decline on overall consumption, but the old world will probably be unaffected as the cost will be borne mostly by poorer countries in Asia and Africa
There’s speculation in many of the comments section on other Blogs that this was all planned and it is the US who has decided to play a game of RISK and move all of the chips to their side of the game board. I haven’t made up my mind on the pros and cons but it can’t be ruled out.
It is not a bad gamble. Blaxkmaoltge world. Crafty but otherwise it is ruin in USA
The ‘tail’ doesn’t wag the ‘dog’?
The existential threat?
“To retain its military power and reserve currency the US needs leverage to force China to provide it with rare earth minerals, and the US intends {intended} to use Iran’s oil {and Venezuelan} as that leverage.“?
https://un-denial.com/2026/03/05/cactus-view-of-the-iran-war/
The self-organizing economy does strange things. I have thought about this issue, as well.
Southeast Asia has been providing a disproportionate share of the world’s economic growth in recent years. In order to do this, it has been using an ever-growing share of the world’s fossil fuel resources. Doing something to knock down Southeast Asia’s growth rate would be helpful to the world energy balance.
Also, the population of the Middle East is very high relative to what is sustainable. If its profits from oil sales could be dropped down for a while, perhaps its population might come down. If nothing else, guest workers might go back home. This would help the world to get along with less oil and other fossil fuels.
Perhaps in a few years, the situation might even out again. It might be possible to re-open the world’s oil wells and extract enough oil for a lower total world population. There might be another growth spurt, after a recession.
I feel we are edging towards understanding what is really going on, Gail.
‘Mad Emperor’ Trump, Israel calling the shots, or the thrashing about of the old Hegemon, are just a clever propaganda smoke-screen.
Knocking Europe down a peg or two, or three, in consumption and complexity, with ‘war’ against Russia, fake-pandemics and associated injections, and the Green Agenda (and mass immigration of people of low intellect with low expectations) will also assist in this Master Plan, if that is what it is.
We can probably add that disrupting BRICS and showing it is hollow and hindering China’s rapid Tech advances, might be a part of this plan.
At the moment it seems that you (population) in US are paying high price for diesel and have consequent big impact on inflation of basic products.
But I’m open to take into consideration your point, no problem.
I’m referring to Kulm’s point.
This is no doubt the plan, and all it will take for the US to impose it is a 10M army, well equipped and supported by the mighty american manufacturing system.
An observation . A buzz about the end of the House of Saud and dissolution of Saudi Arabia . Anyone else notice this ?
I just got off the phone with a Saudi friend, and also watched Alastair Crooke on Daniel Davis. There are several canopy layers in this ecosystem. At the top of course is resource depletion. China (mostly) is trying to mend things up as much as possible but to mend things up you need a solution that is somewhat acceptable to the lower layers of the canopy.
Next layer is the power sharing between great powers, among which we should also consider Iran. A solution with iran primus inter pares is IMHO the most realistic possibility. The US needs to be eliminated, which means at some point China will need to field a 2M army. The next layer,satisfying tribal grievancies 90+ yrs old involving the house of Saud means also eliminating said house. These tribes are not small and consequntial. My Saudi friend partially overlaps with Crooke in saying there will be some sort of tribal council agreement which includes revenue sharing, and that this is what they do over there.
Crooke also speaks of a great awakening in Islam (possible), made possible by Ansarullah, from Casablanca to Karachi, which can not be good news for the illegal campers. Fortunately for them there appears to be viable places in Eurasia and South America where to continue their genocidal ways.
If what you said about Israelis moving to settle in the Ukraine and already having their own ‘police force’, with their own jurisdiction is true, it is highly illuminating. Ditto Patagonia.
Maybe the Iranian leaders assassinated in the first strike of this war were an obstacle to cutting this kind of ME deal? Out with the old, in with the new and ambitious, and raise the curtain on theatre – a melodramatic show and running now for half a year. Broadway next…..
Moreover it sets in motion profound changes in global oil consumption and advance various agendas.
Always refer to Machiavelli, eh?
If those schoolgirls really died, they were the necessary blood sacrifice (alla Old Testament) and also a way of getting the world to believe this is a real conflict between bitter enemies.
Didn’t notice, am not surprised.
(- Being blunt and leaving nuance aside throughout -)
KSA is dependent on oil sales – revenues, and US support.
Both are doing badly / at risk now. See, Oil transport, Trump refusing to bomb Houthis, and more.
Internally, KSA structure is top-down with a vengeance.
A Royal family controls pretty much everything, it distributes biz. oppos, funded by Royals projects, jobs / posts / etc. to relatives, close and distant, hangers-on, important ppl, via an established ‘network’ of relations between men. The men control the women, the women control the children … one can imagine the complicated gossamer webs in some kind of complex order-down diagram.
Basic hands-on physical work is done by immigrant men who are tightly controlled, some call it slave labor. Poverty is a real problem that is hidden. I remember watching a doc. about poverty in KSA, it was quickly banned.
The external image projected is of say ‘New Glitz Arabia’ conforming to W images of ‘success’ -> ostentatious buildings, projects that make no sense, fash modernity on the screen, import of lux products, etc.
(pov from outside, never been there..)
Saudis Tell European Refiners They’ll Get No Crude Next Month
Saudi Aramco told at least two oil refining customers in Europe that they will be allocated no crude oil next month after the kingdom’s key pipeline to the Red Sea was attacked, people informed of the decision said.
European customers normally receive Saudi Arabian crude on so-called term contracts, ensuring a steady flow of supply every month. Those deliveries will not take place next month, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. The decision applies to all European buyers, they said. (Bloomberg)
Tangent, but relevant, Ravi I was just listening today to P. Henningsen interviewed by Nima Alkhorshid at Dialogue Works and he states there was a meeting between US officials and Ansarallah (sp? > AA) mediators in Oman and a deal was struck.
AA agreed not to attack US and ISR ships in the Red Sea but reserved the right to attack Saudi vessels and infrastructure, which was granted.
So. Trump could not give a hell-fire bombing helping hand to KSA when a panicked MBS called him twice, begging on bended knee.
from 9:00 min >
https://tinyurl.com/yc7x5dpa
The rest is worth a listen to as well imho.
Hay tres tipos de crisis.
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/hay-tres-tipos-de-crisis?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=216168872&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
An article by Quark:
There are three types of crisis.
Caught up in the Iran-Iraq War and the conflict in Ukraine, we tend to think in the short term. And we mustn’t confuse a passing crisis (or a prolonged one, but not a definitive one), of the kind we’ve “enjoyed” in recent decades, with a systemic collapse.
That’s why I wanted to clarify the difference between crisis and collapse (of course, collapse will have a prelude in the form of a crisis).
1st) Fuel shortage crisis associated with the problems in the Middle East, plus the episode of the closure of refineries in Russia. . .
2) Crisis in the financial system due to the combination of excessive debt and excessively high interest rates. . .
3rd). Zenith-type crisis of civilization due to the combination of resource depletion and destruction of the financial system.
This type of crisis is not temporary, but permanent.
Here, resource scarcity takes its toll, hindering growth. The financial crisis can be overcome with a system reset, as has happened before, but if resources are increasingly scarce, restoring the previous system is impossible, and a considerable reduction in size (in every sense) is inevitable.
What comes next will be another civilization with its own characteristics, but it will no longer be equivalent to ours.
The genesis of this crisis has been developing for a long time and we are approaching the period where it becomes evident to everyone.
If, as I mentioned before, we are on a catabolic plateau, where everything possible and impossible is done to maintain growth, at the cost of exhausting resources and raising debt to unsustainable levels, the moment when all efforts are in vain, the collapse will have an impact unthinkable with our current yardstick for measuring crises.
All the complexity developed to improve productivity, to increase efficiency (in the face of the incipient scarcity of resources), to replace the raw materials that are being depleted through an energy transition (which, given the problems, is nothing more than an energy expansion, with all sources helping the required energy supply), to centralize operations or specialize production through economies of scale and concentration of technology (investments can only be carried out by large conglomerates, which eliminates competition), ends up making the maintenance of the system unfeasible, when, according to Liebig’s law, a single component of the chain begins to fail and no feasible solution can be found in the short and medium term.
Later:
But if, due to twists of fate, the wars end and it is possible to return to the starting point (only in the case of crises 1st-2nd), the systemic crisis 3rd is waiting its turn.
Supply chain disruption is entering normie awareness. “Stock up”. If everyone just buys a little bit more shelves get more empty. They go empty continuosly any way. And are restocked from trucks not a magic infinite storeroom in the back. Your grocery store largely gets continuously restocked for many items every 24 hours.
People get upset when they can’t buy infinitely. Rationing will be implement the new monitored financial system.
Trucker strike mentioned frequently. What then?
https://x.com/silvertrade/status/2100357813877047732
Maybe. There are a lot of independent owner operators. They will quit, but they won’t go on strike, I would think.
If workers have contracted to deliver loads for a set price per mile (or something similar), they will want this price raised, or they will quit.
The problem with Trump is that he has taken on every country no more allies other than Israel; if Canada can succeed in getting its oil to Europe and China the U.s will be screwed
Trump acts strangely, I will agree.
I believe they plan to kill a lot of people in the US (as everywhere) and most importantly change that very wasteful low-density suburban settlement pattern which can no longer be sen as viable.
The US will survive. Possibly a federation of city states?
FIRST TIME I AM USING CAPS . This means this is a VIP post . KSA is not coming back and neither are the other GCC . The infrastructure will never get repaired . A small excerpt .
” I have worked these deserts, in Saudi Arabia and across the Middle East, and that is not how it goes. Even if it is “Expedited”, you are still looking at a month at the very least, and realistically one to three.
You have to first understand what the work actually is. This is not a “gas station attendant” tightening a few bolts or replacing a motor.
A pumping station hit by a ballistic missile has to be completely demolished, cleared, re-engineered and rebuilt, from the ground and concrete upwards, often with newer technology because the stations are decades old anyways and the original parts no longer exist.
That means engineering, contractors, subcontractors and sub-subcontractors, each waiting on the one below them, each relying on a supply chain that is nothing like the robust, on-time machine people imagine in Germany or Norway or the West.”
https://x.com/aj_geo_analysis/status/2100560728155648044
The escalation ladder and Washington has no answers .
1. Strait of Hormuz secured ✅
2. Bab Al Mandeeb secured ✅
3. Global Internet Cables ⏳
4. Attack on regional desalination plants ⏳
5. Attack on regional national electricity grids ⏳
6. Attack on American aircraft carriers ⏳
7. Sleeper cell activation. ⏳
8. Test an actual nuclear weapon ⏳
The last US strike on an Iranian oil tanker was 8 days ago, on 9 September.
Shortly therafter, Iran launched 20 ballistic missiles at a US base in Jordan. Jordan/US fired 70+ air interceptors. At least a few Iranian missiles got through, damaging 9 US aircraft.
There have been no US attacks on Iranian oil tankers since.
TACO
The ‘sleeper cell’ attacks will be so-called false flag operations. Russian or Iranian.
I agree. Looking at the carnage of the destruction I was dismayed
New construction is so much easier. Basically Legos assembly. First thing everything got to be dug out. Apparently a lot of earth was moved by the explosions. Then everything cut out. Bolts may or may not allow disassembly. Then regraded.
Then assuming original BOM and prints exists the parts start to be accumulated. I have no idea what lead times are but if they are like everything else it won’t be next week. The structure can be constructed prior to parts acquisition. A lot of times on something like this getting the parts is the hardest part.
Now the interconnected nature of global supply chains comes into play. You need 302 widget x. Widget x manufacturers doesn’t have material c because global supply chains are hitting supply constraints. Widget x manufacturers waits for their parts too.
Let’s just say that pumping station was $50 million of parts. It’s financial suicide for a manufacturer to stock those for a event like this. They are monitoring demand like a hawk producing enough for demand.
Unless someone has the components on hand to reconstruct that pumping station it’s not happening next week. There may be patches. Thinning the oil. But not back to flow as designed.
All constructed in the lovely Saudi climate. Can you imagine cutting and welding?
And then? It gets destroyed again? Hopefully missiles and drones run out of parts before every bit of oil infrastructure in the world is blown to bits. That would be nice. Unfortunately it would seem that there are plenty of stockpiles.
“All constructed in the lovely Saudi climate. Can you imagine cutting and welding?”
– 20 yo me was a welding controller on outdoor oil terminal in SE Asia’s scorching dry season heat. Held on for 2 months but refused to be assigned to another site. I was on my knees.
This is a huge issue. Indirectly, it is related to “not enough inexpensive oil and other supplies to go around.” Basically, too much population. Too many other shortages, as well. Not enough fresh water and not enough arable farmland.
Yes, indeed, getting things rebuilt will be a huge problem.
And anything that is rebuilt will become a target as well.
Buyers everywhere need the price of crude oil and of diesel to fall. Is this just a rumor, or is it true:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/crude-eases-china-reportedly-presses-iran-rein-houthis
Oil prices are falling on Thursday on some headlines signaling potential de-escalation moves out of the Saudi-Yemen conflict, both via Reuters:
–China reportedly presses Iran to help rein in the Houthis after Saudi appeal, according to Reuters citing sources
–Oil prices fell on Wednesday after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman eased some concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, while a smaller-than-expected draw in U.S. crude inventories added further downward pressure.
Also:
A senior Western diplomat in the region was separately quoted as saying “Beijing is one of the few capitals that can still press Iran to rein in the Houthis.”
“China reportedly presses Iran to help rein in the Houthis after Saudi appeal”
Reportedly?
It didn’t happen, they know it didn’t happen and so said “reportedly”.
Araghchi(FM) has just been in China for high-level meetings and his words during those days, told clearly Iran’s position and strongly hinted at China’s agreement. He finished up the visit with these words
“Today’s decisions will decide future strategic balance in the region, with immeasurable knock-on effects,”
“4 principles for peace outlined by President Xi are key”
Those 4 principles are interpreted by China, just as they are by Iran, so I’d advise dismissing all western talk of their meaning and read as if you were an Iranian legal representative.
Xi’s visit, if it happens(cancelled yet?), might just come with an explosive take it or leave it offer.
It’s a sad day for Donny, South Korea, his last hope for a Coalition of the Willing, have said no, not willing, we’ve talked to the Iranians(and almost certainly, the Chinese).
>> 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran says Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu are removed from power.
https://x.com/BRICSinfo/status/2100581480275554763
Yeesh. The world is in for a bad time. There is a good likelihood that Democrats win Congress and then Trump gets impeached. But impeachment is not removal, which requires a supermajority 2/3 vote. I wouldn’t rule out even that, though. Fingers crossed.
The problem is that with oil and especially diesel shortages, any replacement for Trump and Netanyahu will be just as interested in war as the two of them are. War ramps up the local economy. It provides jobs for those who find it difficult to get jobs.
We have not been seeing a lot of anti-war protests, at least that I am aware of.
Plus, any replacement of Netanyahu (elections or whatever) will not lead to a different ISR trajectory, it is on a set aim of all-out aggro, on many fronts, some say 7 … care of the US-eu.
Genocide glossed over, tolerated or supported by others (ex. in Europe, even Weidel co-chair of the AFD in Germany, says “Israel has the right to defend itself”) .. and so it goes.
As for Trump, re. US foreign policy, rivals make a shoddy show of being against this or that, Dems. vs. Repubs (e.g. Dems spoke out a bit about the war in Iraq, what effect did that have?)… and the rah-rah goes on.
Ex. Dems want war with Russia, Repubs want to annihilate Iran, heh, what glorious aims to fight about ‘sub rosa’ – in the corridors.
So we have (a least) three possibilities:
1/ Iran, bent on righteous revenge, is capitalising on a failed US-Israeli regime-change attack, thereby senselessly imperiling the global economy. They know not what they do.
2/ The US and Israel, unable to accept the failure of their grand strategy, are persisting in attacks on Iran which threaten global economic implosion, thinking that they are insulated from the fallout.
3/ Iran is playing its role in mere theatre, with the US and Israel,co-operating in a co-ordinated Destroy to Build Back Better strategy. Ditto SA.
Votes, please!
There is another possibility also. Actually more than one but I will mention one.
The events we witness are beyond human capacity to understand.
Throughout history humans have understood their capacity to understanding is limited. Only recently has the perception artisan that we understand everything as a collective. This also has generated the practice of regarding any cockamany idea presented as a function of the collective as absaloute.
Some historical examples of things humans don’t understand
Religion
Beliefs on nature spirits
The occult
Aliens.
Each of these in its own way represents the idea that their are things outside of our species understanding as a collective. AI s being presented as a evolution of collective understanding that is commonly regarded as absaloute. In many ways I feel the collective is viewed as justification for man’s nature which is often based and coarse.
Personally I believe in God. Not in a authoritarian or exclusive way I actually feel that is contrary to God. This sometimes gets me into trouble. Recently I told a friend I had no problem with Islam. I mentioned I have no problem with anyone unless they try to cut my throat with a rusty knife. That’s pretty much my sole criteria although I have little for abusive individuals. I think I lost a friend. How strange.
In fact I have been attracted to Christian science in a abstract way. When the nature of things is examined via scientific disciplines I don’t see how anyone could dispute God or creation. Not to mention beauty. But once again the whole point is freedom of perception. If we are creations of God than our ability to choose is also a creation of God.
Maybe the whole point is to get our efforts in trying to put events into a framework we are comfortable with when none of the frameworks are really that important. Humanity has of course had incredibly interesting manifestations in things we regard as art and sciences. Beautiful things. And ugly things.
Ugly things we thought were in humanities past.
One of humans primary skills is to select objects and put them into appropriate shaped holes thus defining them. We are uncomfortable with objects that have no holes. I wonder if this is the case now. There just isn’t holes for the object we observe. I think that’s ok. It does not negate God. It does not negate beauty. Nor negate humanities capacity for ugliness. c
It’s really not even comparable. No thief has come in the night to rob our intuition. The only way that happens is if we choose to negate intuition because things must fit in a hole or we decide our intuition has no value compared to the collective.
One of the things evaluated on OFW comments is whether humanity is fundamentally base and course or beautiful with compelling arguments and strong beliefs asserted for both. There is no universal hole for that object.
It seems to me that the self-organizing system (or the God behind the self-organizing system) is somehow changing the economy in a way that we cannot fully understand.
What happens is the sum of many different actions by many different people, all trying to act in the ways they consider best, for one reason or another. The sum of these effects produces results that no one group would have thought of.
None of the enthusiasts for Progress through Science of the 19th c could have predicted the wrecked and poisoned planet we now inhabit, the result of their collective efforts.
None of the ardent Marxist Communists who bought revolution to Russia, and many other countries, could have predicted the vileness and moral disintegration of the Totalitarian systems which resulted, etc, etc.
Truth be told, the vileness in most of Europe was imposed by a small ethnic group, which in the process destroyed the flowering social democratic systems that existed. Yes, many of those neo-cons were in fact russian Trotzkyists families which went to the USA and ended up controlling the deep state, but generally speaking the reverse of what you say happened.
FARC in Columbia starts blowing things up with drones.
https://x.com/war_noir/status/2100365270430687435
This looks like blowing up a water tower. This would be terrible for people living in the region. This kind of attack is almost a suicide attempt.
Tidbit from Russia. I put a refrigerated truck for sale Jun 10. Offer June 11, rescinded June 13 due to apparent lack of fuel. I put it again on sale in early Aug., offer Aug. 13, rescinded in two days due to sudden worsening of fuel situation in the last half of August. I posted it last night at 23 again, 15 queries this morning, two offers. I took one. We explained the problem the truck has ( frame VIN partially corroded due to road salt), he will pay for expertise. Saturday we close.
Small business on the rebound, and diesel situation much better than gasoline situation. I am ignoring the phone, and several requests for calling. I will let them know tonight that I will text Saturday if the sale falls through. Also got myself sufficient diesel (at 65 rubles a liter, compared to 78 at stations) to finish season and have some for winter use. Also posted the bulldozer through professional guy, who gave me a good discount for posting it through his company.
Hay season finishing OK, folks with dachas are driving the 30kg bale prices to insane values so we considering re-baling with a small baler through the winter.
Dear drb753, one day you should please explain to me how the hell you end up in Russia as a farmer from being before a physics scientist 🙂
That’s fantastic.
Buone cose
And our old friend Sir Tim the Indomitable: that’s quite a move from East London (I think?) to deep rural Japan.
I seem to recall that drb has small farming roots.
Thanks for the update.
Hi drb753. Interesting that you have transitioned from academia to the farm. You address the essence of OFW. What drives your decision to remain a small business farm vs simply a self-sufficiency homesteader? (Things like my age , 71 and with no family prevent me from ever attempting homesteading)
Let us say if I fail I will be a self-sufficient homesteader. I already am in fact. My meat and potatoes and apples are free, eggs nearly free. Wood, except for labor, is free. I think the business opportunities are good though so it is just a matter of making the farm work, specially if we open export channels with West Asia. It will be good economic support for my children (who, being in the US, are not doing so hot, despite working hard).
A bold move, though clearly well-planned, and the best of luck to you.
I hope you get to visit the fleshpots of Teheran again, one day!
“Air Canada argued that despite the error, the chatbot was a “separate legal entity” and thus was responsible for its actions. “?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/16/air-canada-chatbot-lawsuit
Being an expert witness requires creative thinking. I suppose arguing that the chatbot is a separate legal entity means that it could be sued directly. This is absurd!
Rents are so low relative to prices that landlords don’t even bother to fill their apartments (interview)
Real estate prices in Slovakia are constantly rising, and many investors view them as the holy grail for getting rich. However, economist Juraj Karpiš of the INESS Institute has long pointed out that Slovaks sometimes behave as if they were “members of the Church of the Holy Brick.”
Translated by DeepL.
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/juraj-karpis-nehnutelnosti-su-drahe-najmy-nizke
This is a chart of apartment rental vacancy rate for the US, as shown in FRED.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N
The rate is shown for the first quarter of 2026 is 7.3%. This is higher than the very low rates of 5.6% for the lowest quarterly points in 2021 and 2022. But over the long term, this is still a pretty low rate.
I know that not far from where I live, there are a huge number of apartments being built. I can’t imagine where all the people will come from to fill them. But if the apartments are significantly less expensive than monthly payments for buying a home, and don’t require a big deposit, I suppose that there could be an added shift from buying to renting.
Whether or not the owners can charge adequate rents for their apartments, giving the high cost of maintenance, is another question. At some point, people will start living more “compactly.” There will be more shared homes and apartments.
Who is building, or rather financing, all these apartments? Private equity? Then who winds up with ownership and having to secure rent payments and pay taxes? Huge management firms get in on the action, but who winds up having to service the loans? I assume they are securitized and dumped onto pensions and insurance companies and other bag holders.
I stood up before the quarterly medical staff meeting June 30, 2012 and asked the hospital administrator to resign, claiming, on information and belief -that has never been challenged- that she had run the hospital from $40 million in the green to $100 million in the red and that the hospital could never be sold. Not a single physician colleague came to my side even as many solo practitioners were being forced to leave because they could no longer compete with the subsidized corporate-paid physicians.
I was dismissed as being a crazy alarmist.
“White knight” Sentara Hospital out of Norfolk VA took out a 40 year lease with the provision to build a new smaller hospital which they completed 1 year ago- to act as a referral center to Sentara’s mothership hospital in Norfolk. Sentara apparently no longer pays rent or taxes on the former hospital which the County owns. No one will answer how much the county bleeds out having to service the debt on this dinosaur. The old hospital remains unsold, with the only explanation given is that the taxes are too high and therefore no buyer is willing to acquire the property because “by law the taxes can not be reduced.” Yet my former medical practice office building right on the corner of the highway and next to the hospital had my taxes raised this year. I have no buyers either, because no one is going to act until the status of the hospital is determined.
My concern is again circling back from 2024 is that after the midterm elections this year, or after the presidential elections in 2028, the FEDs or some agency will acquire this 185 bed hospital and create more Section 8 housing and an instant ghetto.
It is interesting how the rental vacancy rate went up from the 1980s to 2010, according to the chart. The current upward trend that began in the early 2020s is likely to continue, especially when we see things like people simply giving up trying to rent out their apartments.
This is like a language I don’t speak. I don’t understand a word. But I do understand anthropic is doomed. I speak doom fluently.
https://x.com/HealthRanger/status/2099557155351191929
“Look at what Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle officially owe, and the numbers seem large but manageable. Look off the books, and a second, bigger pile of debt appears.
A Nikkei study put that hidden figure at $1.65 trillion, up roughly eightfold in four years. It is more than the $1.35 trillion the five report outright.”?
https://thenextweb.com/news/tech-giants-hidden-off-balance-sheet-debt-ai
From the link:
Clip from my podcast on how Anthropic and OpenAI grossly MISCALCULATED China’s rapid advancements in open source AI. And the revenue projections for Anthropic made value assumptions that turned out to be undercut by China’s FREE open source AI models. This is what caused Anthropic to panic and beg for a government-protected industry cartel that would try to outlaw competing open source AI that could be run for free.
When the AI investment bubble collapses, it will expose highly fraudulent accounting practices that will make Enron look tame in comparison.