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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
UK risks running out of gas by 2030s, ministers told
“Great Britain risks running out of gas in the 2030s despite its growing clean energy sources, unless ministers take “unprecedented” action to guard against a future gas supply shock, according to an official assessment of the country’s gas security.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/aug/18/uk-risks-running-out-of-gas-2030s
This article seems to be about natural gas. Under a photo at the beginning of the article, it says, “An oil rig in the North Sea, where oil and gas production is expected to fall by 5% each year.” Somehow, there is an assumption that oil will be OK, even though natural gas needs support.
Natural gas consumption, in theory, could be mostly phased out by renewables and lots of batteries. But the system is nowhere near the place where this could be done. I would add that it would also need lots more transmission lines, which are hard to add, and need fossil fuels to build and maintain.
Now, the plan seems to be to encourage more drilling in the North Sea. The article says:
The prime minister has said he would take a “pragmatic” approach to oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. He told journalists last month: “There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that.”
The UK relied on gas for more than a third of its energy consumption last year, according to government figures. While the UK’s gas use is expected to plummet by just over three-quarters by 2050 under the guidance of the Climate Change Committee, its domestic supplies are likely to fall faster.
The government expects the North Sea’s oil and gas production, which has been in decline for 25 years, to fall by about 5% each year, raising concerns over the UK’s future gas security.
A curious aspect of contemporary economics is that poverty is measured by income whereas wealth is measured by capital. GDP fundamentally is a measure of economic transactions in an economy, that is, income. Back in the long lost years of the Light Ages (of abundamce) I’d read the Credit Swiss Wealth Report which discussed annual changes in the distribution of accumulated income among the nations of the world. Very much a top down perspective on where one stood.
Jumping forward a lost decade or two (temps perdu, still puzzling my through it) I came across this fascinating article updating this topic and discussing much of the big picture changes occuring in the everything bubble of these crazy times. The article is a cornucopia of economic data, charts and analysis, and in my opinion worthwhile and interesting research on society and economics today
https://geopoliticaleconomy.com/2026/08/15/americans-not-wealthy-us-economy-data-inequality/
Nevertheless, the Western corporate media — which even in Europe is overwhelmingly owned by pro-US, Atlanticist billionaire oligarchs — bombards people with propaganda claiming that the US neoliberal capitalist model is responsible for widespread prosperity, and that this is supposedly why Britain is poorer than Mississippi.
These people are utterly out of touch with reality.
This would be something useful to post to yahoo finance. Everyone here knows this. We’ve known this since 2008. I want to hear suggestions of how to handle things. Those at the top already have a plan. We here just continue to forever point out what everyone already knows. I say let deflation happen. Should have happened decades ago, but now is as good a time as any.
Thanks for the link, as several metrics are presented at one place.
The unusual shocker for me was that ” Robber Bln. ” graph of early 1900s being 3:1 less pronounced vs. TODAY’s situation, aka that’s red alert signal light flashing like crazy right there..
Interestingly, there are more notable ” outliers ” beyond the obvious US.
For example, [ Italy ] seems to be positioned way above it’s realistic – median wealth – ranking, one could assume the govs. statistics – obfuscation of real debt and continuous public expenses ( trying to keep the median leveled ) into gutted economy.
This is indeed an interesting article.
I would argue that a great deal of the wealth of the rich is paper wealth. If/when the debt bubble starts cracking, the wealthy have farthest to fall.
The US approach to doing things has indeed provided very high wages for some of the well-trained professionals, besides giving lots of capital gains for those investing in the stock market.
I have been concerned about Figure 1.7 issues for a long time. US health outcomes are ridiculously bad compared to those of other countries. The system is set up to maximize the profits of healthcare providers of all kinds. Over-treat and use excessive imaging on any kind of perceived problem, rather than get people to eat and exercise properly. Get the food industry to reform itself.
Simply taxing the wealthy more will not fix these issues, unfortunately. The system will need to reorganize itself, in my opinion.
“I would argue that a great deal of the wealth of the rich is paper wealth. If/when the debt bubble starts cracking, the wealthy have farthest to fall.”
You just summarized 2008 in two sentences. What do you think the bailouts and 0% rates were for, same as with 2020. Any “plan” they offer up to your benefit is not in your benefit. FYI for any here it may concern: If you use treasury direct you’ve probably gotten an email telling you that the system for logging in is changing coming October and you will need to sign up for a digital id to continue using the site. Something big is coming in the next few months.
No doubt, but the drive to get people on digital ID is relentless, everywhere.
Regarding medical corruption, I watched an interesting video by a former surgeon in the US who began to feel that the pressure to carry out expensive operations, tests and so on was unethical and against the real interests of patients.
In many cases, he came to believe that what they most needed to be told was:
‘ Your body is a mess, and you are in pain, because you are a fat slob, who eats mountains of rubbish and doesn’t take any exercise at all – go away and sort out those issues, and then see whether you still need an operation.’
This however would be no good for the bottom line of his hospital employers.
My father was a general practitioner when I was growing up. This was back in the 1950s and 1960s. He would complain about the Catholic doctors who would perform hysterectomies on their Catholic patients who had as many children as they wanted. He would complain about too many normal appendices being taken out. He would complain that the other doctors in town didn’t keep up to date in the latest advances; they were interested in what would make the most money for themselves.
My father was a user of hypnosis for pain relief. He even used it with his obstetric patients and some car accident patients. He also used some type of cheap vibrations to try to help chronic pain. Needless to say, these approaches didn’t make a whole lot of money for pharmaceutical companies. There aren’t many doctors today using these cheap techniques either.
People have been brainwashed to believing that all of the expensive care they are paying for is the best and is absolutely necessary.
Watching a person’s diet and exercising adequately seems to me to be a whole lot more important.
When I was younger I read a book called Fifty Famous Stories Retold, by a James Baldwin.
There was a more famous James Baldwin during the Civil Rights era. This James Baldwin had nothing to do with Civil Rights, but was an American textbook writer who lived in 1890s.
In one of the stories, called the White Ship, Baldwin talked about Prince William, who went down with the ship while trying to find his ILLEGITIMATE sister (i.e. she was going to spend the rest of her life in a convent anyways since she was not a bargaining chip to other kings)
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/18442/18442-h/18442-h.htm#THE_WHITE_SHIP
They had rowed hardly ten yards from the ship, when there was a cry from among those that were left behind.
“Row back!” cried the prince. “It is my little sister. She must be saved!”
The men did not dare to disobey.
Baldwin conveniently forgets to tell what happened after that, namely the civil war of William’s older sister Mathilda/Maude (no one seems know how to call her properly even now), and William’s nearest male relative Etienne, who conveniently excused himself before the voyage.
it is possible those who cried for help did so to help Etienne, later called King Stephen (a name rarely used for a King’s name, except in Serbia for whatever reason) become the king.
What happened during the civil war ,caused by someone who failed to tell the lie that the bastard girl is safe, is well told in the book Pillars of the Earth by Ken Follett.
https://youtu.be/Yd4e1dF_CkM?si=smX1Jnog-ukL1jci
Such piece of trash was taught to schoolchildren long ago. The immigrants probably did not know the rest of the story, since they probably didn’t understand American history let alone English (and this period was barely known before Ken Follett), but having left behind their relatives back home, they would have laughed about the stupidity of William.
===
Unlike this stupid story, which led to a civil war which devastated medieval England and later caused untold sufferings all the way to 15th century, TPTB will NOT save vast regions which are not considered to be ‘essential’.
it seems South Korea is being abandoned now.
Trump seems to have written South Korea, throwing it to the North. One less country consuming vast resources.
It was stupid to fight in Korea back in 1950, when Korea produced nothing of value back then. it was MacArthur’s ego trip.
Now that mistake is being rectified, albeit too late, and South Korea will fall back into the ocean as North Korea will eventually swallow it and change its behavior somewhat (i.e. be less friendly to the Third World and more friendly with the west, supplying less weaponry to the enemies of the West) with few people mourning the deaths of South Koreans whose only contribution to the world seems to be producing catchy songs to distract the mind of minority teenagers.
I’d assumed the “I love Kim” was a cover story to explain shifting the George Washinton over the Persian Gulf to release the Abraham Lincoln and let the sailors go home so as to quell their mutinous thoughts.
“Deadly clash aboard US carrier Abraham Lincoln leaves seven dead, several injured: Report
Seven US Navy personnel have reportedly been killed and several others wounded in a violent clash aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, as growing unrest among the carrier’s crew has exposed mounting pressure inside the US military amid a prolonged deployment.
The incident erupted after an adviser to US Central Command (CENTCOM) chief Brad Cooper boarded the carrier to address mounting complaints from crew members following protests by their families over the ship’s prolonged deployment, according to Tasnim News Agency, citing an informed military source.
The adviser was reportedly met with boos and had water bottles thrown at him while addressing a gathering of personnel.”
http://www.presstv.co.uk/Detail/2026/08/11/774174/Deadly-clash-aboard-US-carrier-Abraham-Lincoln-leaves-seven-dead-several-injured
Personally, I’m rather dubious about this report as it doesn’t seem to be substantiated, other than by vague MSM comments as to urest among the crew. Nevertheless it reminds me of the late Vietnam War days 1974-75 when “unrest” among US servicemen was one of the primary reasons forcing the abandonment of the endeavour.
The lessons of the Kiel Mutiny in Nov 1918, which ended the Great War for the wrong side, is not forgotten
A mutiny in an aircraft carrier basically ends the US navy
Deadly rising of complexity
“A wave of ‘seniorisation’ is sweeping through companies. More demanding roles, a junior’s salary
Junior roles aren’t disappearing in the age of AI; it’s just that young workers have to cope with moreㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ ㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ ㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤㅤ
Companies expect much more from young employees than they used to. This is evident from a job advert for a junior business analyst. A few years ago, it was enough to be proficient in Excel, have a basic knowledge of SQL and be willing to learn. Today, the same advert lists requirements such as strategic decision-making, stakeholder management and independent judgement – skills that were once the preserve of experienced senior staff.
This is a side effect of the age of artificial intelligence. As AI takes over routine analytical tasks, it no longer makes sense for an employer to pay a junior staff member to process data. There remains a role for someone who can interpret the AI’s output, take responsibility for it and communicate the conclusions to senior management. The consultancy firm PwC refers to this shift as the ‘seniorisation’ of entry-level roles, noting that the actual change is taking place quietly.”
Transalte by DeepL.
https://www.trend.sk/vzdelavanie-a-hr/firmami-sa-vali-vlna-seniorizacie-narocnejsie-ulohy-plat-juniora
Poor, upper middle class person. He/she/it will have to work harder.
There’s large pool of upper middle class people who want that job . These people are willing to work even harder than he/she/it for even less.
The problem is that productivity becomes questionable when complexity increases indefinitely.
Norway wealth fund CEO says fund’s entire value could be lost if market collapses
The CEO of Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, the world’s largest, reiterated on Tuesday that its $2 trillion in value could sustain an unexpected heavy loss and even disappear altogether in the case of a market collapse.
“I want to contribute to our mental emergency preparedness by asking the question: ‘can the oil fund disappear?’,” Nicolai Tangen said in a speech during a political conference in Arendal, southern Norway.
“The answer to that question is ‘yes’ and the worst is that in the world we live in now, it is not completely improbable.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/norway-wealth-fund-ceo-says-funds-entire-value-could-be-lost-future-2026-08-11/
Prior to and excluding cypto, there was in excess of 3.5 quadrillion dollar monetary equivalents on earth. These monetary equivalents constitute the temporal allocation of over 30 years global annual GDP from the future to the present.
Prima facia, debt based monetary equivalents are ephemeral and virtual, yet upon deeper analysis, the above the reallocation facilitated the concrete and real irreversible exhaustion of a one time fossil energy inheritance.
Each monetary equivalent is a claim on net energy that is rapidly converging to 1:1 EROI.
The mass extinction of the vast majority of monetary equivalents is inevitable and inexorable.
Norway sold its energy inheritance for money under the guise of benefiting the Norwegian people. That money was invested with 100 fold fractional reserve leverage for the benefit of the global banking elite who purchased real assets.
The Norweigen people will be left with nothing.
Privatization of profits and socialization of losses under the guise of public benefit par excellence.
Same thing for public pension funds the world over.
Under Webb’s “Great Taking,” collateralization and ownership sequencing has been altered so that public financial institutions are last in line.
The dark-tetrad psychological disposition of the global elite negates their ability for consistent, symmetric, and reciprocal self reference within their own minds and between them and everyone else. They seem to be operating on an autonomous, selfish, mendacious, negative sum game theoretic algorithm that drives them toward asymmetric accumulation of agency proxies of power. This very algorithm, however, prevents them from considering the outcome of its culmination both for themselves and everyone else.
Does one really want to be a conspicuous, asymmetric asset holder when every one else has nothing?
Other than hiding in a DUMB, where do these people imagine themselves, and their children living with all their accumulated money and assets? By what means do they intend to inherit their wealth to their offspring?
To employ loyal security means you have to feed and compensate security and secure their loyalty.
The mass extinction of monetary equivalents and thermodynamic collapse of food system implies feeding and compensating security and securing their loyalty will be problematic.
The best security for anyone is one that is secured for everyone via a robust social contract based on one-many reciprocity. This, however, is contrary to their algorithm.
>> The best security for anyone is one that is secured for everyone via a robust social contract based on one-many reciprocity.
The best security is tribalism / clans.
Which leaves the problem of incessant inter-tribal wars.
Empires solve that, and bring peace and stability for a time, at the cost of becoming a slave of the empire itself.
Which then faces attack by other empires – and tribal raiders – seeking its wealth, and subversion from within as supreme power is fought over ad formerly free tribes rebel…. and so on.
Your checking and savings accounts with banks are the first to get hit by “bail-ins.” The sacrificial pecking order has been already established by law. You are essentially an unsecured creditor. Your “portfolio” (GOD I hate that word) has long ago been captured by the DTCC (Depository Trust Clearing Corporation). You think you own your “stawks and bonds” but you don’t. Not legally in a collapse. Central Bank Digital Currencies /Tokenization are attempts to complete total control of all assets.
Long story short, in a financial meltdown, you and your quaint “portfolio ” will be sacrificed to bail out the parasites who have created these derivatives and other financial bets. Useless parasites who financialize to exist. They will be first in line for the lifeboats. You will be left stranded without to drown.
I don’t think DTCC can really take it without executive action to override it, just like pensioners/unions were made whole at the expense of auto-company bondholders (if memory serves) during Obama years.
Geez, imagine all the heart attacks that would cause?
A two for one!
All money and bank accounts are “promises”. But the amount of physical goods and services will necessarily fall in the future.
We may think that the promises that we hold can actually be converted to goods and services, but this becomes increasingly doubtful. In a shrinking society, those who created the goods and services need to be paid first, or we will no longer get the goods we are expecting. Those of us who only have pixels in accounts that we expect to pay us in the future will be increasingly left out in the cold.
There gets to be a significant chance that the government itself will fail. If this should happen, the state governments would need to somehow pick up the missing services, to the extent they could. They could perhaps join together, and issue currencies for the local areas, for example. But the US$ would be lost, as would many of governmental promises.
I am afraid that any monetary wealth can easily be lost. The idea that we can tax the rich, and use this wealth to save the world is a delusion. Most of the wealth of the rich not much more than pixels, which can easily disappear in a debt bubble collapse.
We need a whole system that uses different inputs to make finished goods and services, including food and transportation. We are already losing the ability to produce cheap energy, particularly cheap diesel fuel to power agricultural equipment and to take food to the market.
Easier said than done; we are running out of time.
I’m sure this has been printed here but I will put it out. It should be of no surprise here that shale is a red queen running
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Shale-Majors-Cut-Spending-Despite-Higher-Oil-Prices.html
But the yield which .no received y/y has been at least partially re-invested at home, be it hard infrastructure deployment across the country and also in lesser part towards social expenses through over-all govs budget as well.
Perhaps comparing with Gulfies, and their air-conditioned mosques, or heaps of parked Bentleys / RRs / Gulfstreams .. Norway then not doing that poorly in terms of spending some of that money while it could.
Yes, the bottom line psychologically, having $2T ” to evaporate ” any minute is not a nice position indeed.
Let us all remember that the country “Norway” is a construct the English invented when Sweden became a bit too big for their taste. Much like the lines in the sand in the Middle East or Central Europe. So the Norwgians are some sort of Scandinavian Poles or Ukies. And a fool and his money are soon parted.
I am of 100% Norwegian heritage. Norwegians know that they will never win a war. They form the backbone of “Minnesota Nice.” They tend not to be combative in their dealings with others.
Some highlights :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_the_union_between_Norway_and_Swed
en
https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/norway-separates-sweden
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_between_Sweden_and_Norway
( btw. ” Glen Diesen ” pictured in uniform: #36 )
..
.
Deaths from heatwaves: a new pandemic in countries tortured by them, such as Slovakia?
During two weeks of extreme June heatwaves, 378 more people died – 20 per cent more than the long-term average. The final week of June was also the week with the highest number of excess deaths since the pandemic years of 2020 to 2022.
Read more: https://www.sme.sk/komentare/c/za-dva-tyzdne-o-378-umrti-viac-ako-priemer-kolko-ich-musi-byt-aby-to-bolo-vazne
This map shows who’s actually exposed right now, share of total gas consumption flowing through The strait:
🇮🇳 India: 28%
🇵🇰 Pakistan: 26%
🇹🇼 Taiwan: 27%
🇰🇼 Kuwait: 24%
🇰🇷 South Korea: 20%
🇸🇬 Singapore: 18%
🇨🇳 China: 6%
🇪🇺 Europe: 3%
Countries above 20% don’t have the luxury of ideology here, they need gas moving, full stop.
This crisis is splitting energy-secure countries from energy-desperate ones, and desperate countries make unpredictable decisions.
Also Europe is not safe..
https://x.com/jackprandelli/status/2089380016752611485/photo/1
3% is really minimal.
Thanks for the update.
“share of total gas consumption flowing through The strait”
Kuwait?
Importing gas through Hormuz?
What am I missing?
Perhaps the exhibit means either imports or exports that used to be flowing through the Straight of Hormuz.
I thought of that, then I thought of Qatar, which is a big LNG exporter, who’s only way of export is through Hormuz, but not on the list. There is also the use of the word “consumption”.
I’m surprised that Japan isn’t on that list.
Japan buys some gas directly from Russia, and gets it shipped from production north of Japan.
I am not sure we can trust the document from X.
Zerohedge’s take on the current Iran situation:
“Iran Shifts From Defensive To ‘Fully Offensive’ Posture, Denies Trump Has Backchannel With IRGC”
–Iran goes “fully offensive”: Tehran threatens escalation if diplomacy fails, after last week’s military command reshuffle.
–MoU expires: Iran says the US-Iran agreement is effectively dead & “irrelevant”.
–Trump threatens Oman: Trump warns “we’ll bomb the s**t out of them.”
–Backchannel denied: Tehran rejects Trump’s claim of IRGC communications.
I doubt Oman have reason to fear the latest Trump threat – are they at all credible anymore?
Similar, repeated, threats against Iran have after all turned into the biggest most wonderfullest economic blockade ever, led by that noble gay warrior and serial property flipper Scott Bessent…..
Yes, usual blather and I believe this is the third time Oman has had the honour, so only another four thousand & seventy six to be level with Iran.
There’s been a lot going on in the region, but the name to maybe watch out for is Mohsen Rezaei(not a name centcom will have wanted to hear). He’s mentioned in the below, which also mentions my favourite from the last week or so, which was the Syrian puppet getting informed of the full list of destruction, should he do as bid by his backers(any sense and he’d turn south).
https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/washington-thrashes
Not sure he’s correct with the financial side, although it will play a large role, but diesel gets a mention.
>> I doubt Oman have reason to fear the latest Trump threat
Perhaps not, but the below claim that the Trump team is discussing nuclear weapons use as an option is at least in line with a fairly common view that the Empire will consider extreme action to prevent its decline:
>> https://x.com/republic/status/2089221573576466705
>> #BREAKING | Former US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene claims high-level talks underway on potential nuclear weapons use against Iran.
They would appear to have realised in the US that conventional weapons won’t get them anywhere., so perhaps there might some truth in this nuclear rumour.
But information in the public space is now so corrupted that one cannot place any weight on any unofficial rumours, revelations, etc.
Official declarations are, of course, all garbage, on this issue, and indeed any other.
The age of government solely by lies and murder: the degeneration is complete.
Is it even worth trying to understand and discern the truth now? Perhaps a little effort is prudent, but not too much.
We are left wandering along a hall of distorting mirrors: eventually, we shan’t be able to recognise even ourselves….
If indeed it gets to the [ n-level ], we can bet our own abuela on the outcome that neither CHN or RU will lift a finger for Iran.
BUT w. the proviso they will very likely relay the ” proverbial last minute ” warning from them, which in turn means Iran -> Gulfies likely get the full/partial retribution during such ongoing sequencing.
Aka Gulf oilz available on int. markets – we hardly knew ye ..
We will see what actually happens. No country is doing very well–China, Russia, the countries of Europe, or the US. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand are also worried about the future (or should be).
Latest version:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-threatens-bomb-st-out-oman-touts-irgc-backchannel
Trump Doubles Down On Plans To Make Hormuz Strait At US Territory: “A Great Idea”
Trump Latest Iran Remarks from Oval
President Trump repeated some of the same old talking points while addressing reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. He asserted that Iran wants to make a deal, but “they’re not going to make the kind of deal that I feel is necessary.”
“Look, we’re in there for one reason: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” he said. He also doubled down on a prior declaration that he wants to make the Strait of Hormuz a US territory. He said this is “a great idea” – which in effect dispels the notion that when he said it the first time it was mere hyperbole. This is also amid ongoing claims that the US military has “complete control” over the strait..
Strange world we live in!
we must understand the reason Trump is doing what he is doing,in order to get the oil price much higher war and threats of War especially through nuclear attacks which seems to have a catalyzing effect on the oil price.
In order to avoid phase 2 which I believe will be starting in 2030 the war narrative must be played for the next few years.
if successful the oil price will climb to $200 a barrel and stay there permanently.
This is the elders plan.
with $200 oil Arctic oil and Antarctic oil maybe feasible.
this is our only chance to avoid phase 2 of the plan which I believe starts in 2030.,
Trump may think he can make the price of oil permanently rise to $200 per barrel, but that cannot work in our current economy. Perhaps, a few hundred years from now, if we can use oil much more sparingly, $200 per barrel might work. But a lot of changes would be needed, taking many, many years.
I wonder if the US military leadership will turn on Trump. To cut a long story short, Trump has essentially exposed how limited US offensive capabilities are.
In the old European diplomacy it was known as the ‘prestige ‘factor, ie ‘Just pause to consider what we could do to you if we so choose’. An element in this was not just raw power, but the perception that agreements would be honoured.
A British Foreign minister, Lord Curzon, said that he spoke French with such a bad accent ‘to show that I have the Royal Navy behind me anyway’.
The US has lost prestige entirely after the Iraq, Afghan and now Iran debacles.
Not of course that it is now powerless, far from it.
By SUNDANCE at the Conservative Treehouse, who also smells something fake in the fog of war:
Approximately six days from now I will share a great deal of information on World War Reddit. I took the insert picture about a week ago as a Ukraine drone struck a venue 500 meters from my location. Suffice to say, I’m not reporting information to you based on propaganda media, seriously skewed alt-media or misinterpreted/intercepted Telegram channel discussion; there’s an information war on that platform also.
Almost everything being told, shared and sold about the Russia vs Ukraine conflict is entirely made-up nonsense that has zero basis in reality. My goal has been to find out why there is this much effort toward twilight-zone level propaganda being pushed by unified interests in western media. Honestly, it’s beyond crazy.
According to Ukraine/NATO media, and probably soon to be shared by President Trump, “Russia suffered 42,860 battlefield casualties in July, its highest monthly losses since January 2025.” This type of stuff is so far beyond silly no one can figure out where they come up with the ideas for the rates.
In media headlines you might have read that Ukraine is celebrating the biggest launch of drones against Russia in a single day, Sunday. The Russian media counter by saying they have shot down 822 drones, with 600 of them targeting the Russian capital of Moscow.
Inside Russia, none of this stuff is happening; however, the govt of Putin finds some sort of purpose/value (personally I think it is just Russian humor) in countering the Ukraine nonsense by accepting the claim and then reiterating it in their claims of interception.
It’s all an illusion. First, the illusion makes it look like Russia is under bombardment (western happy), and then the Federation flips the script (it is indeed a script) and uses the claim as evidence of their exceptional capabilities at interception of the non-existent.
If you are suddenly cross-eyed, yes, that’s the level of crazy I’m talking about….
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2026/08/16/ukraine-celebrates-launching-largest-attack-drone-swarm-of-the-war-to-date/#more-286114
Perhaps, even what we think we know is wrong.
But if finished refined products from Russia are down, that would seem to indicate that there is a problem with something hitting refineries.
That casualty rate, for one thing, applies to the age of mass assaults against deep trench systems, heavy artillery and machine guns, ie WW1, not the warfare of today.
I very much doubt that the Russians are using such tactics. Or have the manpower to waste in such a reckless fashion.
I suspect that we are in the age of rapidly diminishing returns of trying to understand what the hell is going on, anywhere, not just in Eastern Europe.
In Germany, the proportion of young people who are neither in work nor in education is rising
However, almost two-thirds were unavailable to the labour market due to care responsibilities and health problems.
Read more: https://www.sme.sk/index/c/v-nemecku-rastie-podiel-mladych-ludi-ktori-nepracuju-a-nevzdelavaju-sa
Stagflation baby!
“Bad luck with global supplies”
LOL
Supply side supply crisis creates stagflation not deflation.
The truth is no one knows.
Show me a politician that doesn’t like to create money and spend.
They are all going to become scrooge McDuck?
FDR was scrooge McDuck?
There are scrooge McDucks around for sure.
Me for one
None of them are politicians.
20 T will do nothing…
Put 20T stimmy in the hands of the proletariat see what happens.
First order of business.
All debt paid off.
Banks desperate to make loans
That’s $70k for every man woman and child.
Relative to goods and services.
Stocks will not hold value.
Dollars will not hold value.
Gold and silver will not hold value
https://youtu.be/Ge4DooceiLk?si=LgN21h9NfYOYN6AZ
But the US debt will be even larger than it is now. If the US national debt is $40 trillion now, adding $20T of stimulus will raise the total debt to $60 trillion. We will be heading in the direction of Japan, in terms of debt to GDP. Required interest on all this money will be absurd. We are already struggling with the interest on $40 T.
Japan has had low, low interest rates to try to keep a huge amount of debt. If the US is doing desperately badly, perhaps interest rates can fall this low again. But I have a hard time seeing that this stimulus will pay back well enough to make the situation get better. If we are up against resource limits, it is virtually impossible to get resource extraction up, based on stimulus.
Well if you will excuse a sassy student talking back to a teacher.
Only one thing can cure stagflation affordable and abundant energy.
That’s Saudi. Saudi pumped like no body’s business and that’s what got us out of stagflation disease last time. The one created by the Iran deposing the shah. But someone decided to mess with Iran again.
I mentioned 20t because HHH claimed balance sheets could be expanded that much and not fix his imaginary crisis. That may me true but 20t in stimmy will debase the currency. Of course they will try that they are already getting ready with all this talk about FDR establishing that there is a respected and appropriate historical distribution of dollars created from debt to the public. HHH seems to believe the dollar is some sort of precious inviolate deity when currency debasement via stimmy is always a possibility and has been shown as recently as COVID to be a action invariably taken. This FDR talk is preparation for the degree of scale. FDR is a respected icon. His actual policy’s don’t matter. HHH perspective of this as a movement between balance sheets is correct. People will use the debased currency distribution to pay off loans of the more valuable currency they received just as they did with the COVID stimmy. Personal debt will be moved to the government books with the accompanying dollar debasement. It won’t stimulate anything as goods and services will be gone in a flash. So it will be used to pay off debt
If the the Hormuz fireworks stand gets lit for real all gulf provision of abundant and affordable energy is gone possibly forever.
If anyone doesn’t think all party’s are not preparing for the defense and destruction of gulf infrastructure with all possible urgency their opinion is different from mine. If and when the showdown occurs there will be losses and it won’t be over even then.
If the goal is to reduce energy consumption in a attempt to reduce carbon emissions because of climate crisis it certainly seems effective. The inevitable dollar currency debasement in response to stagflation will only help if this is the goal. Debasement of the means of trading oil.
As I mentioned many months ago. Trump has achieved carbon emissions reduction beyond Gretas wildest dreams. We will see if this trend continues.
Actions reveal motive not words. If the motive is radical reduction of carbon emissions current events both in the gulf and Europe make sense. There was no “blunder”. A radical reduction in carbon emissions is occuring throughout the world. That is the observed reality. I have no idea if carbon emission based climate change is true but it certainly is a plausible motive for observed actions.
The Lyme disease vaccine is currently undergoing the approval process
Pfizer and Valneva’s Lyme Disease Vaccine Candidate Marketing Authorization Application Validated by European Medicines Agency
https://valneva.com/press-release/pfizer-and-valnevas-lyme-disease-vaccine-candidate-marketing-authorization-application-validated-by-european-medicines-agency/
Operation paperclip sure got around.
https://lindgren.health/lyme-lab-leak/
‘Collapse of civilisation is the most likely outcome’ warn scientists
Scientists warn the planet is on the brink of a “tipping cascade” that could lead to the collapse of civilization
Earth is barreling toward several critical “global tipping” points that risk triggering devastating consequences for humankind. Among the most dire milestones on the horizon are the Amazon Rainforest’s collapse, the total dissolution of ice sheets at the poles and surging worldwide temperatures. When coupled with our booming population, these elements could unleash widespread catastrophe.
https://www.themirror.com/news/weird-news/collapse-civilisation-most-likely-outcome-1982483
My prediction: most of those who read that in The Mirror will in fact be preoccupied with seeing if they can get a bargain last-minute end of summer vacation, as advertised on YT!
“John Olooney
This is the US Government Oversight committee report on covid. Its 520 pages. You can read it in a couple of nights and it explains all about covid and the response to it. That document is littered with horrific facts. This US Govt. published report has been out since December 2024. It never made any MSM news and considering the impact covid had on EVERYONE i struggle to comprehend why a two year investigation and report was simply totally ignored. Explain to me how a document can be published that admits that DARPA commissioned covid. Admits that the CCP financed it and that gain of function was done in Wuhan because no laws there prevented a bio weapon being made there. How can everyone be so utterly mentally neutered i wonder? Where is the outrage ?”?
https://x.com/OlooneyJohn/status/2089257131111289282?s=20
It’s learned in grade and high school. You don’t just jump in the hot tub. You test the water. That way you get some lovin and some coin. That’s how most people are wired. Lovin and coin. Words are just a means to a ends. Emotions a means to a ends. The wagon wheel falls in the rut. After a while the rut is all it knows.
You are saying that people can’t make such a big leap-of-faith change to their thinking. They have put their trust in what governments say.
I’m saying that humans enjoy both social interaction and the ability to spend and they learn to see what group consensus is prior to creating opinions. This behavior like all behavior reinforces the behavior itself and the degree of its adoption. You become what you practice. That is the primary truth.
Once people have faith in the vaccines, and all their friends have faith in the vaccines, they cannot imagine changing their minds. It seems that way. The medical establishment would never mislead us.
Actually that’s not my perception. My perception is that very few have faith in the vaccines even those that are most vehement that they do. There have been a lot of vaccine injuries for one thing and people are not stupid.
There are a couple of decisions here for young people. Largely failure to inject is regarded as belonging to Trump despicables. That’s associated with racism anti gender choice and anti queer aka social suicide. Affinity for all that is despised in brand/ gang allegiance. It’s similar to any questions of why the Russians are so bad. Isn’t it obvious? Because Putin hates gays! That’s why the youth must all go off to war in Russia. But I digress.
Most youth choose injection rather than perceived social suicide. Some a little older and higher IQ simply lie and say they got injected. Most are not comfortable with that level of deception to their peer group. Like everyone they want to belong and injection represents commitment. Voila not just to the injection but to social justice across the board. That flag can then be flown even by injection injured. In fact the possibility of injection injury gives the commitment meaning as often sacrifice does. Those injection injured are the most proud of their social justice status in my experience. And the most aggressive in condemning those who are openly not injected even if their behavior is kind and compassionate.
My point is wanting some loving and some coin are normal and healthy human motives. While we might question the decision and the behavior the motives are normal and healthy. As this way of living is practiced it becomes so ingrained it becomes the essence of the individual. This is IMO the primary human characteristic. You become what you practice. We all exhibit these human characteristics. While the times are very difficult we are not so very different even if gang psychology demands the belief that we are.
In many/most countries the first responders, ..and army have had the vaccination as mandatory task to keep the job.. ( and most of these people joined there for the long term perks ).
So, even if you are in this cohort, and you witness or suspect sudden death spike around you per colleagues, well.. , you keep just soldiering on.
That’s why it was designed as such a policy, basically to crush people into the subjects-mold of the future w.out mercy for the public at large to perform subjugation in latter phases.
Not performed for the first time in history, yes evil agenda, end it will eventually fruit out ( ricochet ) further damage.
This is the link to the DARPA report.
https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/2024.12.04-SSCP-FINAL-REPORT-ANS.pdf
There are an awfully lot of people who think that whatever authorities tell us must be right.
Also, if there is a real need of the self-organizing system to get population down, this could be a path to keeping the population from rising as much as it otherwise would have. The virus and the mRNA vaccines could perhaps even given populations in some countries a nudge toward decline.
For a brain to be neutered would require that it was active and potent in the first place……
Well, the manual skills of avg. people say 100-130yrs ago were apparently way higher vs situation of today. Some psychologists/.. would then argue this practical-real world deficiency also shrank the over-all brain performance levels of today.
In other words we as human-oids are already past peak and by a long shot ( decades ).
Obviously, that’s countered by the claim of rapid prototyping via 3D designs and printers into whatever desired hi-end industrial output etc. Which if true brings us back to previous discussions about ” excess ” pop numbers out there.. in terms of future needs.
NAS – Network Attached Storage – The next step in media ownership?
I’m not sure if any of you have been following the physical media vs digital subscription debate, but it has re-surfaced again with Sony’s decision to stop producing physical discs for its gaming consoles (playstation) after 2027. The logic from Sony’s perspective is that they get to monopolise that aspect of the market (no 2nd hand purchases possible) and it keeps the cost of production down whilst still charging the same (no need to make and ship physical discs).
As a result, an increasing number of people sense the direction of travel “you will own nothing and you will be happy”. Needless to say, they are not happy about it.
I’ve been buying physical media for the last 2 years and I’m still amazed at how cheap and reliable shipping is (even internationally). However, given recent events such as Hormuz, I’m wondering if this can continue. Shipping costs in the independent (gamefound) board gaming community have just started to climb.
Secondly, if we are to pay for media but not own it, then what is the point? Enter NAS. Essentially it’s a network that you can set up in your own home to run media from your storage devices.
Thirdly, if AI can plagiarise anything in the public domain, then it stands to reason that people will begin to set up private servers with trusted people (e.g. family).
What does all this mean? Well, in my opinion, I think how we own and share our media (and information in general) will change. I suspect the cost of obtaining physical media will increase (or the selection will decrease based upon availability and affordability). I suspect people will be incentivised to create household servers to offset the cost of subscription based services. And I suspect information will start to become private again (decentralised).
There is a parallel to this media storage/independence with the green energy dilemma. I misjudged badly the timing of my solar panel purchases when I started purchasing them in 2018 for future use. The cost was well over $1.00 per watt (100W Renogy and HQST panels priced at $114.00 then, but much lower now.) As for media storage, I trust only hard thumb drives – USB or solid-state drives, but even those have been reported to have a limited 2-5 years life span as they degrade unless “refreshed/reinstalled.” So for really important stuff, I am still using hard copy.
While I agree on the uneconomical energy pedigree of solar panels for a central grid because of their need for costly, redundant night backup systems (NG), batteries, and copper wire for transmission lines, intermittency, weather dependency etc., makes solar uneconomical on a large scale. Solar may, however, have a practical cost-efficient advantage when deployed in single-household units. But this too, could be a blip due to the extreme economic distortions introduced by our monetary system of debt, tariffs, centralized Chinese govt control etc. In hindsight, now was a better time to have purchased panels. But waiting to buy thinking the prices go down even more? Hard to determine even with hindsight. The quality may decrease. For instance, substituting copper for silver in the cells to keep costs down. Artificial tariffs causing wide swings. Companies going out of business because of the oversupply glut which this You Tube video says may be due to the fact that the rest of the world simply can no longer afford to buy these. Too much debt, and a contracting physical economy, or the EVs which are stacked up in lots as the smaller EV producers drop like flies. Would you want to buy one of these when the manufacturer may be gone tomorrow?
I think small nuclear reactors (SNR) may exceed the level of practicality and affordability for home non-grid solar systems.
Anyway I am conflicted with the AI-generated versions of China’s Ying and Yang prospects. Kevin Walmsley on his YouTube channel implies China is going to take over the world. On the other hand the China Observer says the sky is about to fall. I don’t regularly follow the China Observer, but this video is probably worth watching in its entirety. At least it makes you aware of the issues.
All I know is that I am glad I was able to visit China back in 1994, and especially cruise the Yangtze from Wuhan to Chongqing through the Three Gorges before the dam construction had even started. I have 8mm video footage of the Chinese laborers unloading coal from the boats to shore running up and down the loading planks with buckets of coal connected by sticks across their backs, and buildings in Shanghai being constructed without cranes, but rather buckets of cement poured into rebar-tied molds like in the Philippines. And in the medical field, ginseng was used to treat ventricular arrhythmias according a visiting Chines cardiologist while I was in med school in 1982, even when plain old lidocaine back then in the US was the standard. How things have changed.
Different countries, different bank practices
Interest Practices: How Banks Are Stealing Your Money
Slovakia is a country known for legally manipulated interest rates in banks, both when paying interest on deposits and when charging interest on loans.
“There are two aspects to interest rate fraud. The first is the use of a 360-day interest calculation formula when calculating interest on deposits, hidden in the banks’ general terms and conditions (the so-called 360/act model), whereby the customer loses five days’ interest on their savings held in a savings account or fixed-term deposit with the bank.
The mirror image of this is the formula for calculating interest on loans (act/360), which means that the customer actually pays interest on the loan account over 370 days. In any case, when granting a loan or accepting a deposit, the bank short-changes the client by five days’ interest. For large banks, this amounts to tens of millions of euros annually, which boosts the revenues and, consequently, the profits of commercial banks in Slovakia, contrary to the standard practice in developed EU countries.”
“Slovak banks generally operate very safely in terms of their assets (loans and other receivables), but not in accordance with European banking practices. To illustrate this more simply, we can compare banks’ unfair interest rate calculations to the practice of deceiving customers when weighing goods in butcher’s, greengrocer’s and fruit shops during the communist era.
Back then, customers usually only realised they had been cheated once they got home and weighed the goods again. In Slovakia today, it is no longer enough to appeal to the banks themselves to ensure fair commercial practices when calculating interest on both deposits and loans. The ball is now very much in the court of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) and the Ministry of Finance of the Slovak Republic (MF SR).”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.pravda.sk/nazory/komentare/clanok/2025391-clanok
Rates keep changing, anyhow. If somehow you do away with this practice, I expect that banks will simply raise rates sufficiently to get the profit they are aiming for.
18 days of jet fuel left on Australian soil i will be holidaying with my family in the Gold Coast in Queensland by the time it is time to get back if there is no jet fuel available I think we will be having an extended holiday, let us see if jet fuel runs out in Australia
We will see how this all plays out. Governments cannot seem to admit a shortage. A more likely scenario is that airlines will cancel flights.
You will be fine but get your aerobics up.
https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23086541
‘“What is AI great at?”
“Processing enormous amounts of mathematical information.”
“If they can put a manual third lock in a social credit system for every individual, and essentially automate the whole process with AI, then they have the ability to control many, many people.” ‘?
https://x.com/Holden_Culotta/status/2089091030742401425?s=20
This starts out,
Catherine Austin-Fitts just exposed what’s really going on with AI data centers.
It’s not only about mass surveillance.
They’re laying the foundation for a “full-blown social credit system.”
Big Tech, central bankers, and the government are all in on it.
China tries to do some of this. We have heard that many of US data centers are near Washington DC. If there aren’t sufficient finished goods and services to go around, some way is needed to allocate what is available.
[ “full-blown social credit system” ] does need such large AI / IT infrastructure to be deployed on the condition we are about to enter true PO threshold.. , where way fewer products are being chased by the consumer public or items/parts needed by the contracting industrial sector.
Also, the CHN over-sight system primarily to large extent stems from the ” Asian hive ” over-dense urban living style arrangement ( no race pun intended ), while the US spread-out living arrangement instead needs differently tweaked control, aka ” the best being illusion of no control layer above at all ” ..
Obviously, I could be very wrong here, BUT that would also likely equal that some energy brake-troughs* are just around the corner ( as per govs-biz insiders evaluation today ). In such scenario both pretenders on global rule ( US and CHN ) could be indeed interested in solidifying their rule at least into two separate, tightly managed blocks.
But in another, low %probability scenario we could be also into the future option where it all suddenly comes together nicely: smaller pop YET from now on under strict consumables pattern AI over-sight ONLY, hi-tec energy solved, hence lot of nice centuries/millennia lasting prospect ahead w.out the damaged/spoiled/over-crowded Earth systems issues..
__
* that would also contradict that >2019 de-pop impulse intent
None of your figures are working. This makes it difficult to follow your points.
Is this comment with respect to my post? Try using a different device for accessing my post. The problem may be with your phone or other device you are trying to read the post from.
The reserve has no tanks anywhere in it. It is 60 caverns dissolved out of salt domes thousands of feet beneath Texas and Louisiana, at sites like Bryan Mound and Bayou Choctaw.
To get the oil out, operators pump fresh water into the bottom of each cavern. The water is heavier, so it floats the crude up and out through the wells.
But fresh water dissolves salt on its way to saturation.
So every withdrawal eats the walls of the container.
An excellent post on SPR .
https://x.com/Ric_RTP/status/2088985585943753113
Interesting! Some more of the post:
Siddharth Misra, a petroleum engineering professor at Texas A&M, said that the process leaves a “flatter, less stable roof” and “severely thins the critical salt pillars that separate adjacent caverns, greatly increasing the geological risk of a structural cave-in.”
The oil can be bought back at any price but nobody can put the dissolved salt back.
The reserve was engineered for FIVE full drawdowns across its entire service life. It has literally executed dozens of releases in 40 years.
Misra says that left “severe cavern deformation, accelerated the rate of massive salt falls from the ceilings, and significantly weakened the overall structural integrity of the aging reserve.”
Sandia National Laboratories has advised the reserve on salt since 1980. Its modelling now tells operators one cavern has three drawdowns left, another has five, and a third can NEVER be used again once emptied.
One Sandia engineer summed the whole problem up by saying geology takes over and engineering stops mattering.
BREAKING: the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell 5.3 million barrels in the last week and stands at 293.4 million barrels as the authorized release continues.
SOME CONTEXT: in January 2026, there were 415 million barrels in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve .
The stock is the headline, the flow is the constraint. DOE max draw down is 4.4 mb/d and 13 days from decision to market . The binding limit was never barrels. It is the 13-day lag .
Just some thoughts on the current situation . The war started on 1st March and today is five and a half months . So some time lines . For the first 15 days every one was shocked because the attack was done while talks were going on . A total surprise . After 15 days the analysts got some data together and came to the conclusion that SPR + oil on seas will mean that we we were covered for about 4 months i.e 1st July . They later revised it to 15 th July by adding the oil of Russia and Iran under sanctions , an unknown figure . Around 1st of July analyst’s ( HF research , Martenson , Downey , John Goh etc ) came to the conclusion that the turning point will be when the SPR in USA reaches 300 million barrels . Date was 5th Aug to 15th August .
So here we are today the SPR is 293 million barrels . War has escalated . Iran controls the SoH . The question is what and when will be the tipping point ?
My thought — it is still the draws at the SPR . When that stops the US will have to stop exports of crude oil and also of the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel as prices rise in the domestic market . This means the 1.56 mbpd of diesel to EU is cutoff along with jet fuel . However my earlier thought was it will be the military that will decide the cut off but now I think it will be geology that will decide the cut off . In the meanwhile to add fuel to the fire is now the ” Yen ” and ” interest rate ” problem which did not exist in March . Both are self reinforcing loops . The situation I look at today reminds of the actions taken by BOE to stop being kicked out of the ERM in 1992 when Soros broke the GBP . BOJ is now in a similar situation and no amount of intervention is going to save the inevitable . If we can delay to 15th September would be surprising . Two other factors that could accelerate , one the collapse of Ukraine , second an all out Iran- Israel conflict . Just some thoughts . Please feel free to rectify , add .
Look at all the armed forces being deployed in Europe & United States (mostly)
Bolivian president declares state of emergency and deploys military to quell anti-government protests
Military sent in to help emergency services fight wildfires across Whales
Spain deploys military to Ceuta after migrant surge:
Malta deploys its Armed Forces in tourist area amid rising antisocial behaviour
Indiana National Guard deployed to help with tornado recovery in Lake County
Boston city councilor suggests bringing in National Guard after recent violence: “We don’t have enough police officers”
Germany deploys soldiers to Poland to help reinforce eastern borders
The Indonesian National Armed Forces has deployed 1,267 personnel to support disaster response efforts following a magnitude 7.7 earthquake
Bangladesh deploys army ahead of anniversary of ousted PM Hasina’s party
There are ~200 countries. There’s always something happening somewhere.
Not this many and this quick.
It’s minor stuff, though, compared to what governments did just by inviting citizens (or forcing them) to roll up their sleeves for the Miracle Injections.
‘ We will only all be safe when every one is safe!’
One has to keep a sense of perspective in unstable times.
they don’t want to alarm the public by saying they’re being deployed due to huge spikes in emergency medical incidents.
It seems like there are times when an increasing number of people are badly falling behind in the system.
–In 2019, when many miners and others were not getting enough wages. They were protesting in the streets. This set the stage for 2020 shut ins supposedly due to Covid.
–In 2011, the Arab Spring in the Middle East. Food prices were spiking. They started protesting against the system.
–In 2026, many people, especially young people, seem to be left behind in the system. While jobs may be available, they pay very little. It is difficult to support a family on them.
Armies had been established so governments can handle this kind of situation. But at some point, the situation can spiral out of control of the armies. Keeping people inside for some excuse, such as we need to save fuel for the war effort, takes over instead.
Didn’t we have the Yellowvests in 2019 in France and also large protests in hong kong in 2019?
Yes, there were a number of protests in 2019. Local authorities want to keep order. When various restrictions on movement were announced in 2020, local authorities welcomed them, because they would help maintain local order.
https://share.google/NZtQki8n8X1ttDl3j
I usually don’t post links. But here is an easily found took me two seconds to google link that shows China’s banking credit or private credit. Compared to elsewhere.
The chart is actually a little dated. Ends in 2020 but it shows how large China’s banking sector is compared to everywhere else.
I don’t particularly care for Zeihan’s views on energy and a lot of other stuff. But that chart isn’t fiction.
And the majority of that debt isn’t going to be repaid. How do i know that? Because lending in China is in contraction.
Debt isn’t supposed to be payed. That debt is a bubble, it’s inflation. What the Chinese government is doing is deflating assets, assets built and bought with this debt, and people and companies are going broke.
Your link cannot be verified as the source document
https://zeihan.com/credit-and-the-end-of-the-world/&docid=RQGyNfKe6M7sZM&w=806&h=1200
has been removed.
Just askin, but if the Japanese yen credit market “doesn’t move the needle” of significance as the Eurodollar credit market which is the only one that counts, why should the Eurodollar credit market be excluded with respect to measurement against the Chinese yuan credit market?
moss,
I believe the source on that particular chart is the BIS (Bank of International Settlements). Also known as the central bank of central banks. That is where the data originated from.
I brought up the fact that China’s Credit market within China is huge. Not Eurodollar huge but still huge. I wanted to point out that all that lending didn’t really change China’s current outcome. I wanted to point out that in a closed environment it didn’t matter what authorities did the end result wasn’t growth. It was stagnation. It was decline. Stimulus is never more than a temporary sugar rush that you end up paying for later on.
China’s banking sector is full of non-preforming loans. Something like 50% of all Chinese businesses are not profitable. Therefore, can’t repay loans taken out. Yeah that’s a real number.
And actually because China is so big. A lot of Eurodollars try to chase profits in China. They try to chase credit expansion in China. Which isn’t happening in China currently. China’s decline is in very real terms putting a damper on the amount of USD credits being created by the Eurodollar banks.
And the whole Japan situation is a dollar problem. Not a Yen problem. Japan is desperate try to get dollars. And it’s creating problems.
Japan also doesn’t have any good options. The money within Japan doesn’t want to stay. Interest rate hikes is forcing more money out. (They really need to cut rates but that is a problem also)
Japan actually has a choice. They can either chose their bond market. Which is how they fund themselves. Or they can chose their currency.
Their currency is toast and will continue falling. Governments will chose the bond market every time over the currency.
The oil needs to flow. And it’s just not going to. So we need to prepare for some bad outcomes. That governments and the so called monetary authorities at the central banks can’t do nothing about. Well they can sell stuff in response. Right up until they run out of things to sell.
Like i said before, the US government, US treasury, guess you can throw in the FED Reserve as well since most still believe they are a real central bank that can print actual money.
They are small potatoes compared to the Eurodollar market.
And as you can see swap lines that are always open between the FED and BOJ don’t really matter. Weren’t even used. REPO facilities at central banks also don’t matter.
The only REPO that matters is done between the large commercial banks. And they can choose not to make loans base on collateral or by the fact oil isn’t flowing for that matter.
“The only REPO that matters is done between the large commercial banks.”
I concur. This is where it started in 08 and again in 2019.
Wow! Private credit has really expanded in China since 2000. But China’s economy really “took off” after China joined the World Trade Organization in late 2001. The percentage increase is from a very low base.
Thank you HHH things look more clearer for me .
What the large majority of people believe in is a magical printing machine that will enable a boom to occur everytime a bust occurs that is known as QE forever.
Interest rates are going down permanently and the oil price will be low..
Then the dark ages will begin…..
HHH – Even assuming the data is correct (who knows), it doesn’t make clear to me how much of total credit this private credit is. Seems important. Maybe there wasn’t (or very little) any at the start? Also, supposedly the housing-as-investment has gotten the kibosh and should be in decline since then.
ivan,
Chinese housing markets was once the single largest asset class on earth. Larger than the combine values of the US stock market and bond put together.
Amendment 14, US Constitution (1868): “Section 4. The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.”
In continuing “Modern Monetary Theory”, if, when the debt “rolls over” & has to be re-borrowed, there’s a mania-panic-crash syndrome, so that a new set of buyers-in isn’t found, what happens to “the system”?
I expect any government will collapse, if it becomes clear that the government greatly overpromised what is available to pay. Governments everywhere are headed in that direction. It doesn’t matter what the constitution says. A new constitution will be needed.
If fewer goods and services are available in the future, it seems to be that workers who made these goods and services will need to be paid first. This will not leave much left over for retirees and those receiving disability payments.
Bloomberg reports 4 mb/d of dark Hormuz transit flows
I’m calling bullshit on that
It’s not because I know but I have more confidence in Kplr & Vortexa than journalists with anonymous sources
My guess is 1 mmb/d on a good day + 2 mmb/d Kplr/Vortexa
Art Berman
Nothing new , just reconfirming . Post closure 18 mbpd .
I am afraid we have entered a period with lots of bad data.
This bad data may extend to coal, besides oil. No one want us to know how badly they are doing.
Information ” fog of war / haze ” on such a mb/d level – that’s very important area of inquiry, pls. consider mentioning it in future released articles as we go forward..
I am not sure I can research how much effect the fog of war has on the reports that are coming out.
Often, countries are better at reporting how much oil products they imported and consumed, and how much natural gas and coal they consumed. Maybe those reports will be a little less bad.
> Demand Destruction: The Real Energy Crisis Hitting Europe and Japan
00:00:00 Strait of Hormuz closure and Iran’s demands
00:00:54 Global shortages set to hit economies hard
00:01:19 Why Iran will not reopen Hormuz
00:02:32 US oil reserves drop below the safe limit
00:03:23 Europe’s gas reserves are critically low
00:04:36 AI data centers fueling US gas demand
00:05:11 Diesel and aviation fuel shortages spread
00:07:15 Cost of living surge coming to Europe and Japan
00:08:15 Deindustrialization accelerates across Europe
00:09:29 Theory the crisis targets BRICS and China
00:12:40 Wealth transfer to the elite explained
00:16:35 Japan’s energy dependence and lost opportunity
00:19:19 Putin visits the Kuril Islands
00:23:06 Vassals take the hit first for empire
00:24:58 History behind the Kuril Islands dispute
Asia is outbidding Europe for natural gas. Demand for natural gas is growing because of the data centers.
Growing shortages of aviation of diesel and jet fuel.
Everyone wants prices to skyrocket. What do they gain by bombing things.
Why are people/governments not doing anything about it?
Deindustrialization will have to start taking place. [Lots of jobs lost.]
Surge in energy costs might be connected with some kind of plan to destabilize China–someone is writing about-idea related to Scott Bessent.
Political leadership in Europe are all trapped is their confrontation with Russia.
Will people have to transfer to sell off their assets, and transfer them to wealthy foreigners.
Massive change increase in transfer of wealth. Probably not the energy companies themselves engineering this.
——
These are some of the ideas up through 15:19. I think Alex and Alexander are missing the point that a lot of the extra costs are not going to oil companies. Crude oil companies will not get very much extra, nor will companies selling natural gas. Costs are going to insurance companies, and shipping companies, and people trying to rebuild systems that have been bombed.
We are dealing with diminishing returns. Prices tend not to go up very much to compensate for diminishing returns. Businesses close down. Recession takes place. Many jobs are lost. The fact that many workers losing jobs tends to lead to debt defaults. What tends to happen early on is a financial crash.
Wars may start or get worse. Eventually, some governmental organizations (perhaps EU, Central government of Japan, Central Government of US) will crash. New financial systems will start quite quickly, perhaps started by the next lower level of government, or by groups of “states”. They cannot offer as much benefits as offered in the past, because the finished goods and services needed to fund them are not there.
Alex and Alexander are caught up in standard thinking about what is ahead.
Yes, their forte is in d/d focused updates on the political machinations across the globe, not energy ( peak ) analysis..
Again, the idea of re-installed plateau at lower complexity level and then possibly achieved constrained-partial rebound has been addressed by Nate Hagens in those nice graphs.
Speculatively, we ( here ) could put timing on this as follows, if crisis hits hard say ~2027-29, then mid-late ~2030 forming ~solid ground for partial rebound exhausting itself in next two/three decades by ~2050, then further crash taking down even more of the over-all complexity level still.. at that point full-scale industrial societies around the globe becoming severe minorities / oddities .. vs. the harsh degradation everywhere else into chaos and proto-feudal agrarianism again ( or simply gross extinction ).
Industrialization led to rainwater being channeled away. We need to keep water where it falls in order to reverse droughts and heatwaves.
https://youtu.be/881Ogi71tBI?si=M58VrfCD4t-rTtKK
This is a translation of the time stamps:
00:00 Introduction
01:24 Why is the Danube drying up and what is happening to the water in the country
02:35 Slovakia is warming. Where is the rain disappearing to?
04:45 Can the country’s drying up still be reversed?
05:52 The tipping point has already been reached. What awaits us in the coming years?
07:04 Could Slovakia face a similar fate to the Sahara?
08:59 How quickly can we return water to the country
11:17 Why torrential rains will not solve the drought
13:03 How heat and dry air affect our health
15:42 What extreme heat does to crops
16:57 How to water properly during a heat wave
19:40 How to retain rainwater on your own land
20:58 Why are wells drying up in Slovakia
24:51 Will the water return to the well once it dries up?
26:02 Is there a risk that one day we will run out of tap water?
27:18 Does it make sense to drill ever deeper wells?
27:56 How to easily collect rainwater at home
29:01 Will water become a luxury item in the future?
30:55 Conclusion
Of course, industrialization has brought higher paying jobs, for at least some of the population. Once industry has taken water for things like turbines to produce electricity, the rest of the population is not happy losing the electricity.
The amplitude of recently occurring historical water excess ( say upto 1970s ) aka getting rid of water priority then vs today’s severe record droughts is truly massive.
The engineers planning those various industrial sites counted on circa [ 150-200yrs ] known recorded water levels per given area; perhaps a bit longer for critical sites as NPPs ( well apparently NOT in HU/RO/.. recent examples though ).
So, if we are now into say the ~extreme of 500-1500-3000yrs kind of odd wave swing – that’s surely going to knock out both of them /at the same time/: the industrial water intake as well as the individual-civic water consumption sectors.
Yesterday: a female driver under the influence of alcohol killed a motorcyclist. She fled the place, but then returned.
https://my.sme.sk/liptov/c/pri-zrazke-na-liptove-zomrel-motocyklista-vodicka-z-miesta-nehody-najskor-usla
Do we have to know about every single accident in the former provinces of the Kingdom of Hungary?
but they were able to block/chase away insightful reante, for example.
Quality of commenters here goes down by the day, NP is/was right.
Commenters need to be respectful of others.
Also, it is not clear to me that Reante is as knowledgeable as he claims to be. His background does’t give rise to a lot of confidence in what he says. This was one of his comments.
I was a literature major because it was the only major that didn’t require a big ass senior project or having to work with others lol. The senior year paper in whichever emphasis one chose (I chose Postmodernism) only had to be 13-15 pages. Smart huh? 😁 I did not go to graduate school, it was all I could do to finish senior year. I only went to university because my parents expected at least that much out of my middle class upbringing. I just wanted to go to the local junior college with my high school friends and my girlfriend, so I chose the nearest university with a good basketball team (Santa Clara University) so I could be nearby them, and near home, too.
For my senior paper I analyzed a canonical Postmodern short story with my thesis being that it wasn’t postmodern at all, only superficially so. Surprise surprise from me huh? I argued that it was classic feminism instead which preceded Postmodernism. I was right of course. It was my best paper. My female teacher was pissed and hauled me into her office on charges on plagiarism because I wrote a long, complex sentence with the word transmogrification in it, and between that and my being just a presumably dumb jock on the basketball team (I had also had to miss some classes because of traveling for basketball which English teachers weren’t used to and didn’t like because athletes are rarely English majors), and my undoubtedly arrogant and antiestablishmentarian thesis of feminism, to her it all equaled plagiarism. I didn’t plagiarize of course so she had no way of substantiating it. I believe I ended up with a B- on that paper.
After college I mostly wandered around aimlessly for a few years couch surfing and hitchhiking and doing oddjobs. Not wanting any part of all the bs.
I am not insulting anyone in this comment.
It’s interesting how you validated my background back when I wrote that comment, by noting how there were at least two writers invited to that military wargaming of Collapse that you attended, yet now that you have turned on me, my background is read meat for an establishmentarian bias that appears not to be able to judge the quality of ideas on their own merits.
As I always like to recount, the great Steve Ludlum is a high school dropout. So there’s precedent. The yin and the yang.
Appreciate you thinking of me x-, and agree with you, cause and effect being what it is, to say nothing of hierarchical control. Now HHH bears the lone burden of trying to instill the gift of confidence in the commentariat. moss treats him disrespectfully and Gail disregards that fact.
As you see, can still comment. I will put up your comments, if they are respectful of others.
Thanks for the mention, Reante. I say that in all seriousness.
The quality of the forum is diminished without your content.
In fact it was the reason I recommenced posting – the alternative voice.
I’m a permanent lurker and I do not wish OFW to fall into meaninglessness because of Gresham’s Law of internet fora
Ironically you’re a deflationist as am I and I think HHH is also.
In posting I do try to focus on content rather than the person, even morons. Ignoring whom is a real choice we have.
I left last time round about the time you did also because the groupthink had become to dominated by the China has collapsed myth – yet despite ZH’s best efforts, it’s still going, but not strongly but nor is anywhere else that I can see either.
OK some personal stuff: I consider you a very orginal thinker, well educated and a fine communicator; and like me hard boiled.
I’d be grateful for your more frequent posting.
Well, Reante, the probability that ” Gail ” is some former or even present outfit for the MIC ( or similar ) tasked scanning the ” PO angle ” has been always quite high or apparently not zero probability. I guess most of us here are aware of that and willing to ~risk it as the community is very diverse and bringing up always unusual angle and viewpoints to events. While other forums are usually overwhelmed by the money chasers of various kinds, or polit-sectarian zealots which then tends to destroys the debate IMHO.
__
PS this comment is not meant in derogatory manner to our host or any participants; as we know from history all great minds got eventually entangled w. TPTB in one way or another, that’s how this planet operates..
That doesn’t work for me Gail because we don’t share the same definition of personal respect. I see tough love as an offering of respect to a person’s higher self and you see it as disrespectful of their lower self. I see accurate tough love as self-defense against the pervasive spiritual warfare that politicizes us. I believe such lovng accountability should be cultivated and enshrined rather than stamped out. Lack of accountability is what has defined my absence over the last week. Culturally it’s what defines gentrification.
You have.my email if you change your mind, friend, and see the wisdom in trying again in accordance with our compromise. It’s a fair compromise.
People are moving toward less safe means of transport and driving more carelessly. Yesterday, on Sunday, I saw a woman in her early sixties riding an e-scooter home after Sunday Mass. It means faster but less safe mobility.
Sorry to hear that. Do not trust and somewhat actively avoid smooth-talking humanitarians for decades already. Still, I humbly hope reante is one of those statistical outliers, a prescient exclusion from the rule…
OTOH, there is this suspicious, ominous calmness in the air recently (perhaps, in my personal air only), and I could not but frequently recall the following tidbit by Prof. Bardi in his Ch. 1 of LaB, 2nd paragraph from top on p.32:
The term “Shale oil” is used to refer to two different things. What was abandoned was oil from kerogen. This was called shale oil at one time. It took a ridiculous amount of heat to bake it out of rock. Tight oil from shale, on the other hand, seems to have a reasonably high EROEI. It certainly has been pursued.
If, as you say, the quality of commentators is going down by the day, then personally I can’t wait for the amazing Fast Eddy to return and make the OFW Commentariat Great Again!
As a high-school dropout myself, I am in no position to try to lord it over others by waving my diplomas around. But I have found from long experience that what people say is of far more importance than the academic status attached to their names.
One might think that in general, overall, having sat through more higher education and having obtained more qualifications would make people a teensy weensy bit smarter. But this isn’t necessarily so. As the story of this recently deceased Cambridge University high flyer attests.
I wonder if he was jabbed? Or perhaps global warming got to him?
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/08/15/uk-left-blames-death-of-ex-cambridge-professor-arday-on-racism-media-scrutiny-of-plagiarism-claims/
I think we are living through interesting times, but we are cast adrift on a sea of trivia so that most of us can’t see the wood from the trees, if I may be forgiven for mixing my metaphors.
I remember back in 2022 that Eddy claimed the Ukraine war was fake! And we all laughed, because we could all see based on news reports and videos that the kinetic and collateral damage was real enough.
But on another level, he could well have been correct. It may well be a fake conflict, and the current conflict between the US and Iran may be fake too. But regardless of that, a lot of people are being killed and injured and bankrupted, and a lot of infrastructure and facilities are being blown up. And maybe that’s the whole point?
During a meeting in June 2023, Zelenskiy thanked Graham for visiting Kyiv and praised the military assistance provided. Graham said this was “the best money we’ve ever spent.”
Then, Graham said Ukrainians resisting the invasion reminded him of “our better selves in America. There was a time in America that we were this way, fighting to the last person, we were going to be free or die.”
“Now you are free,” Zelenskiy said. “And we will be.”
Graham replied: “And the Russians are dying.”
Tim> that youngish Cambridge professor story is beyond bizarre ( supposedly an illiterate till his 15-18yrs of age then suddenly leap-fforwarding it all ? ) – but have not read all the ballast argued pro/against around, perhaps it’s a legit yet very ( beyond ) unusual story in our world of today.
The UKR thing is tragic in the sense of evidently from outside influence trying to flare up full-fledged civil level war ( piggybacking-employing on old *Soviet mistakes in arbitrary moving boundaries / pop around ) for several decades and now in recent months even takes vibes of early [ WWIII stage proper ], given all the int-realm ricocheting.
__
* the boundaries and people have been reshuffled around there a lot since at least 17th century; in recent decades the 1/5 – 1/3rd of non-RU core-heritage pop took over, then as result of hostilities and forced conscription +6M already fled ( both W_E directions ) , +4M displaced internally, and upto 2M died, .. ( all min. numbers perhaps needs 1.5x factor ); the country is now turned centuries aback into mere agri-setup future enclave only: as all major factories, transportation burned to the ground, naval ports taken away, etc. ; perhaps the last support civ-columns: grid ( entirely ) and water systems will follow as well.. and all that just for yet another W->E vector attack on RU (~3-5th attempt ? ) in recent centuries..
Perhaps true collapsnik would just plainly summarize it as that 3rd world ” slash-burn ” agenda and conflict ” solving ” apparatus moved closer to the core countries and this mega-trend will likely continue come closer to haunt us all..
apparently yes. I am expecting a detailed look at when he fell in the garden and bruised his knee.
I am just pointing out how the population is changing: drunken women or women under the influence of drugs.
My friend was surprised when I pointed out the prevalence of drug abuse because he thought it was not so widespread. But it is becoming more common.
Furthermore, there is a trend of women who no longer feel attracted to men.
https://www.postoj.sk/198703/stupa-pocet-mladych-zien-ktore-sa-necitia-pritahovane-k-muzom-je-to-reakcia-na-krizu-vztahov-ci-nova-nalepka-s-vyhodami
All part of the westernization of slovakia. perhaps of interest in a slovakian forum but not here. we know about westernization, all of us. you are a bit dense to be honest.
I find these vignettes from the Slovakian press fascinating! It’s all part of the rich pageant of contemporary Carpathian life.
I only wish we had commentators from Estonia, Bosnia and Macedonia to let us know what’s going on over there. There is more to Eastern Europe than folk dancing, yoghurt, and vampires, you know!
Mountainous regions are different. You see more japanization in Slovakia, i.e. less immigration than in the West. The ageing population is also making society more conservative.
There is still no law allowing same-sex marriage or registered partnerships in Slovakia. And judging by the current political spectrum, it seems unlikely that such legislation will be passed in the foreseeable future.
So women driving under the influence of alcohol or drugs are still something unusual. Although women drinking alcohol—for example, in the neighboring valley of my village—was quite normal 40 years ago. You could meet drunk women in the local pub back then, when the Soviet bloc was falling apart.
Obviously, something similar is happening today. Now there are women working as bus and truck drivers, and you need a car to go grocery shopping because your village no longer provides you with the food and services you need.
So Slovakia is now in Eastern Europe, according to Mr. Tim Groves. There must be quite some serious land slippage going on over there.
Dothk, how dare you assume my gender!
Geographically, Slovakia is located in Central Europe. Politically, however, during the Cold War, it was part of Czechoslovakia, which was grouped with Eastern Europe because it belonged to the Soviet-led Eastern Bloc. [smily face sticking out tongue icon]
Google AI informs us that, “Eastern Europe is an eastern subregion of the European continent. There is no single, fixed definition. Depending on the context—whether geographic, political, or cultural—the term can mean a narrow group of Slavic nations or a broad collection of post-communist states.”
Here’s a map, in case you are still confused even now that I’ve gone to the trouble of explaining things to you that you’re too lazy to know.
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/atd-herkimer-worldgeography/chapter/2-4-eastern-europe/
Tim, if I’m not mistaken Slovakia featured not %insignificant German* and Hungarian speaking minorities before the WWII resolution. But in the same vein, to lesser degree this was also fact say in Romania, which is certainly a bit beyond Central Europe context proper and more on the Latin -francophone outpost of Eastern Europe anyway.. vs say that mixed Illyrians – Greco – Slavic down there Balkans coastal yet another direction. And then you have the Balts, and Fins up there, it’s all just giant mess since at least 17th century empires build-up and carving of the lands.
Simply, Slovakia being that blurred case on the verge of several vectors of con-fluence.
So, the best approach is perhaps to flash out the old pre-WWI maps of %nationalities per every region and compare contrast w. today.
Evidently, the boundaries and zones shifted by many hundreds km as the pop was moved-expelled around just after WWII.
__
* less than what is ” newly ” W-part of Poland or Bohemia-Czechs borderlands from where most Germans had to repatriate into newly forged BRD/GDR.. states; and those ( pop ) used to live there for past .5-1k yrs as it was their proper settlement originally in Prussia or being invited over from Germany proper to settle down during feudal era even by ~Slavic medieval aristocracy then jump starting proto-industries or first cultivating demanding pristine terrain..
“Geographically, Slovakia is located in Central Europe. Politically, however, during the Cold War, it was part of Czechoslovakia, which was grouped with Eastern Europe”
Tim San, it’s not the Cold War any more. So Slovakia is located in Central Europe. Furthermore, you haven’t got enough O-levels to tell me what to think.
I wouldn’t presume to tell you what to think, Doth-san. If you don’t accept that under multiple definitions, Slovakia today is in Eastern Europe, far be it from me to argue with you.
I think it’s the kind of argument on a level with “It’s not Burma, it’s Myanmar!” or “Do humans have eight fingers or ten?” Or is “Donegal in Ulster?”
These kinds of debate can be fun in a junior high-school-ish way, for youngsters who have barely started to think and still have their intellectual L-plates on, so to speak.
Your insistence that Slovakia Central rather than Eastern Europe—even after I’ve demonstrated it’s in both depending on context and perspective—is an example that highlights how cultural framing shapes people’s opinions.
More generally, I’ve just about given up on trying to correct the BS that washes up here. What with the bots, and the delusistanis, and the people who are convinced they are always right, and the leg-pullers and wind-up merchants (which what I suspect you to be), and let’s not forget the eye-rollers, I do agree with the sentiment that the quality of the commentary here has gone down, not particularly in recent days, but in recent years.
“Could it be the jabs!” I ask myself. “How many of our cognitively challenged commentators lined up for a free donut?”
But at least we are not swamped by grammar nazis and folks who want to correct our spelling or syntax. That really would be anathema! We must be thankful for small mercies.
There’s a quote widely attributed to Leonardo da Vinci:
“There are three classes of people: those who see; those who see when they are shown; those who do not see.”
Leonardo, if he did say that, wouldn’t have bothered himself with people who do not see even when shown.
Niccolò Machiavelli was more blunt:
“There are three kinds of intelligence: one kind understands things for itself, the other appreciates what others can understand, the third understands neither for itself nor through others. This first kind is excellent, the second good, and the third kind useless.”
Gotta love those Renaissance Men! Machiavelli ranks intelligence by independence of thought. The best minds think for themselves — or at least, learn from others.
Ancient China also had a take on this. Confucius states:
“By three methods we may learn wisdom: first, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third, by experience, which is the bitterest.”
I like you last quote:
Ancient China also had a take on this. Confucius states:
“By three methods we may learn wisdom: first, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third, by experience, which is the bitterest.”
JR, to some extent, I tend to agree with Kulm.
Woodrow Wilson has a lot to answer for. Giving every ethnic group their own country was asking for trouble.
The post 1815 political map of Europe that remained mostly stable until 1914 was so much cleaner, despite German and Italian unification, Bismarck’s expansion, and the Balkanization of the Balkans.
Tim, the key issue was that Wilson came at the tail end of brewing up tangled processes for some time already. He was NOT providing the spark, the flash point, but rather merely becoming the undertaker of the old, if you will.. ; some authors even see WWI+II as single continuous yet briefly paused event.. needed to be processed, cleared out.
1/ The stability of post-Napoleonic century was largely a chimera, especially after the hard squelch of quasi liberal revolutionary wave of 1848 in various states.
2/ Britain->US as usually did not favor large single dominant continental power be it France, then Germany, or later Soviets now likely RU if the trend of self-exhaustion within EU continues.
3/ Because of the industrial age affluence and social progress old grievances from pre-17th century previous BIG round division of Europe ” suddenly ” bubbled up prior WWI again : namely the question of Poland, the division of Balkans post Turkic influence, and chiefly the Germany/Prussia proper vs Austrian relationship aka who is the boss, .. or at what conditions also run as the junior partner in that coalition ~only..
Plus obviously the issue of various colonies nearby ClubMed/MENA or anywhere more distant in the world.
And the desire to re-arrange their ” ownership-title ” among the competitors..
A Kidnapped West or Culture Bows Out
Milan Kundera
Translated by Edmund White
https://granta.com/a-kidnapped-west-or-culture-bows-out/
‘But since Europe itself is in the process of losing its own cultural identity, it perceives in Central Europe nothing but a political regime; put another way, it sees in Central Europe only Eastern Europe.’
An essay from 1984. Read it, Tim Groves, and understand why you must never confuse Central and Eastern Europe again.
Read that, thanks, Doth. Years ago. Definitely worth reading, I’d say. Kundera makes his point about Central Europe being a real place defined by shared cultural ties to Western values, modernism, and Roman Catholicism/Habsburg heritage rather than geography alone.
A cynic might say that Kundera was a typical East European with a cultural cringe to match. He sucked up to the West and was really chuffed to get in because, as an Easterner, he was effectively beyond the pale, or “not one of us!” Before the War, a Moravian would never have been allowed into an English private club without a chaperone. It was just not done.
Now anyone can come in. We are no longer discriminating on the basis of nationality—except against Russians, Serbs, Iranians, and in some establishments, Israelis and White South Africans. They are the only ones I can think of who are beyond the pale in the 2020s.
Kundera was, as we all know, born and raised in Brno, Moravia, the same city in which Mendel conducted his famous pea plant experiments in the experimental garden. I would give the place cultural merit on those grounds alone.
But as native of the lands to the east of the Elbe that Kulm, rather ungenerously IMHO, reminds us have not contributed very much to civilization, Kundera was very much aware that he was an Eastern European in most Western European eyes. That’s why he wrote the essays telling people to stop that. Stop it! Stop it! Above and beyond that, he was lauded and celebrated in the West as being worthy enough to be accepted by the superior civilization/culture. That’s how he thought about it. He really cherished that status.
Interesting you chose Kundera’s 1984 essay to try to make your point. Because Kundera himself was thoroughly beguiled as a young man by the East/West divide and was a gung ho Communist in his youth. He didn’t definitively broke with communism during the 1968 Prague Spring and the subsequent Soviet-led invasion of Czechoslovakia, when the party slung him out (for the second time) and he lost his job as a teacher).
In his famous 1983 and 1984 essays such as The Tragedy of Central Europe / A Kidnapped West, Kundera argued that Central Europe (such as Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland) is culturally part of the West, but was geopolitically “kidnapped” and swallowed by the East (the Soviet Union) after World War II. He lamented that Western Europe forgot about Central Europe’s unique identity, mistakenly viewing it as just a seamless part of the Soviet-dominated East.
There’s something in that view. But it also comes over as special pleading. “Please please please please please let us in: let Bohemia be part of the West. Let Poland in. Let Latvia in…..” And before you know it, Zelensky will be browbeating you to accept Ukraine as part of the West. Then again, East is East and West is West and always was, and if you try to stand in Central you will get run over by a passing truck. Because it’s a dichotomy we are dealing with here. You are either for us or against us. In or out.
I love the magical storytelling of these literary geniuses of the East, but I wouldn’t confuse them with Westerners.
Aargh, the incredible triteness of being a Nobel Laureate in Literature hailing from the Second or Third Worlds!
Shall we do geographic Europe next, or chat a bit more about ethnic, political, social, and religious Europe first?
My best Spanish friend is an artist from Barcelona. She’s a Catalan, and like many Catalans, she argues that Europe stops at La Franja de Aragón and anything west of that is Africa. You get people like that in most countries. Is Cornwall in England? A lot of Cornishmen don’t think so. Is Gibraltar in Spain? Is Trieste in Croatia? Does Belgium even exist at all? I suppose it must, since Belgian chocolate must come from somewhere.
Kundera, from the essay Dothk links to:
The contradictions of the Europe I call Central help us to understand why during the last thirty-five years the drama of Europe has been concentrated there: the great Hungarian revolt in 1956 and the bloody massacre that followed; the Prague Spring and the occupation of Czechoslovakia in 1968; the Polish revolts of 1956, 1968, 1970 and of recent years. In terms of dramatic content and historical impact, nothing that has occurred in ‘Geographic Europe’, in the West or the East, can be compared with the succession of revolts in Central Europe. Every single one involved almost the entire population. And, in every case, each regime could not have defended itself for more than three hours, if it had not been backed by Russia. That said, we can no longer consider what took place in Prague or Warsaw in its essence as a drama of Eastern Europe, of the Soviet Bloc, of Communism; it is a drama of the West – a West that, kidnapped, displaced, and brainwashed, nevertheless insists on defending its identity.
It seems to me that Kundera is arguing that Central Europe has historically been part of the West, and was kidnapped by the East. He isn’t arguing that Central Europe has an existence independent of East or West. At least, that’s my reading after going through the entire article.
“It seems to me that Kundera is arguing that Central Europe has historically been part of the West, and was kidnapped by the East. He isn’t arguing that Central Europe has an existence independent of East or West. At least, that’s my reading after going through the entire article.”
Good boy for reading the whole article, Tim. You deserve a quality dog biscuit for that. But you see now what at least you must not mistake Central Europe for Eastern Europe.
It would be helpful if you made your point with what you are posting. Otherwise, quite a few of us wonder why we would care about this item.
Where is Norm I havent heard him lately?
But im glad Reante is still around I thought he’d done a fast eddie and left in a huff.
I wonder what has happened to Dennis and Artleads.
People come and go. That is how things work. Norm still seems to be commenting on other forums.
Norman would surely return if someone started swearing by numbers.
After spelling reante’s name with a capital, you better hope not.
Dennis has been hounded off by his ex wife, he should get an injunction.
Artleads, no idea, but something in cardboard I’d guess.
There are a huge number of men with autism. Quite a few of these men don’t make good marriage partners.
At least some women who want a life partner need to find another woman, to make up for the shortage of marriageable men. Today, there are quite a few high-earning women who might make a reasonable partner for another woman. There is even artificial insemination if the couple chooses to have a child or two.
You may know that my daughter is married to another woman. My daughter is the mother to a 4-year old boy, through artificial insemination. In today’s world, this seems to work.
“ . . . so we’re going to see financial crisis this time round
10:53 coming not out of overreach by the financial sector creating too much credit and then a plunge in credit going from positive to negative. We’re going
11:00 to find corporations and households that have debts that they were servicing successfully for the last 15 years, ever since the global financial crisis.
11:10 Suddenly, they won’t be able to service those debts anymore because they don’t have the income. Workers will lose their jobs. Firms will be unable to sell goods
11:18 and services they can’t make anymore because they don’t have the input parts to it. So, that’s what a lot of commentators are expecting to start
11:25 happening in the next 1 to 3 months. And that’s really is that close. And of course, the war shows shows absolutely
11:32 no sign of stopping. “?
Your quoted part agrees with what I think, also.
Lack of oil leads to recession and low prices, not high prices.
“As the days go by, we face the increasing inevitability that we are all alone in a godless, uninhabited, hostile, and meaningless universe. Still, you’ve got to laugh, haven’t you?”
— Holly from Red Dwarf
No weather – flash flooding report filed, so all good in yours .JP area ?
Huge differences between eastern and western Japan this summer, Jr. Much hotter and dryer in the West.
In the east, “record” amounts of rain fell on in Chiba, next door to Tokyo on the 13th. A dozen, maybe two dozen people dead. Roads turned into rivers. Very heavy weather indeed.
They lie us about the future:
“growth companies” vs “mature companies”
https://youtube.com/shorts/5tOuZ6ngJsk?si=DDJAAZA6bW9lCWoC
This is a good video! Growth companies are selling hype. They are telling you that Tesla is worth way more than Toyota, for example. Believe it at your own risk. These rapid growth companies may not be there for long.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/15/strategic-petroleum-reserve-spr-oil-iran-war-caverns.html
Depleted strategic oil reserve nears level that raises concerns about damage to caverns, operations
It is really taking forever to get to rationing. July came and went. I doubt there is a problem for the next two months.
Middle East and Russia are write offs at this point… The only silver lining is Russian refinery runs finally look like they’ve carved out a bottom.
Korea is pretty much maxed out on diesel into Singapore, while Europe is barely holding utilization together with this brutal heatwave and drought…
So where is the product relief supposed to come from? Maybe China could theoretically ramp utilization and dump barrels into the export pool but…
That just ramps their crude imports and blows up any ceiling on oil prices… Dilemma…
https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2088766168433836055/photo/1
So I am just looking at the Russian export trends. What I see is more crude and fuel oil being exported from June to August, but naphtha exports are low.
NWE diesel cracks are of course the most distressed.
So it does seem that the CDUs and secondary units would have been affected by the Ukrainian drones big time.
https://x.com/JuneGoh_Sparta/status/2088624389768237381/photo/1
That we still are inhabiting the amazing world of tapping a few keys and whatever we want turns up the next day is just astonishing.
Something to take advantage of while one can…..
Exactamundo
Now, apart from the various industrial trinkets ( yes some genuinely important ) – this fruit ( and root veg ) season is just out of the ordinary. For the ClubMed or MENA people proper that’s likely an old hat, but for north of Alps it’s very unusual – no prior experience affair for sure..
Basically, almost all fruit categories are sort of ” baked in ” from these never ending weeks of heat.
So, they are firm inside – no spoilage what so ever!, even if say only 85% ripe time-color wise, nevertheless the taste is beyond-fully developed now.
In terms of shopping from outside I only avoided the melons so far as I don’t trust much the water quality per producing regions – as once one ” witness ” relayed to me they as crop are usually / intentionally hooked to the worst quality water source per the farm setting, vs. other more profitable type of crops. Could be only a bad mouthing legend – but makes sense as precautionary manner in this specific extra-drought.
But I’m getting worried about the local crop of nuts, as even the add. watering is not enough, surprisingly bushes performing better than very water deficit stricken full tree nut ~alleys; likely signals severe drought in the lower soil profiles, despite all the obvious preparatory terrain contour water soaking arrangements done yrs earlier etc. And this is all relatively elevated see level.. I can’t grasp how the poor souls living down there ” in the hell ” bellow say 450-650msl could ~survive at all.. Now imagine if we had to move to 1000msl during next decades, hah.
When I was a kid ~20yo I visited Jacabobad in Sindh and was surprised at the claims of the city that it was the hottest place on earth.
This year before the start of the monsoon, the hot season, I spent several months on the Gangetic Plain and I have never endured heat like that. One night at midnight from curiosit I checked the online weather for the city.
Midnight 39 degrees Centigrade.
Forecast Maximum: next day 46C, for Tues 47C , Wed 46C, Thurs 46C, Fri 45c, Sat 46C, Sun 48C
Thankfully low humidity …
Perhaps Gail may post the link to the chart I’ve sent
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/MathuraSummer26.jpg
This is in Pakistan.
Jacabobad is on the western edge of the Indus Valley in Pakistan. Mathura is in India on the Yamuna River about 65km noth of Agra
We get recession, or some scare to keep people at home, not “rationing” the way you and I expect it. I suppose Russia could be different, but Trump will not ration gasoline.
Today is V-J day
It was a botched win, since to save a few thousand US redneck lives, USA invited USSR to invade China and North Korea, a very, very short sighted idea for which the world is paying for it dearly.
It all comes down to saving a few thousand cousin-marrying, barely educated redneck lives.
If USA was willing to sacrifice 500,000 more lives back then, we would not be in this situation today.
USSR should have been told to behave itself, off limits of China, and Chiang Kaishek would have dealt with the commies sooner or later.
A certain delusionist, who comes here less and less often, thankfully, would have argued about some redneck parents who would have mourned their barely-educated, good-for-quite-nothing sons at the battlefield .
Instead, to save at most 100,000 American lives, most of them quite disposable, we got huge problems called the People’s Republic of China, North Korea and Vietnam.
All to save a few redneck lives.
USA lost less than UK in battle, despite of having many times UK’s population. What the f is that?
American lives. American lives. Barely educated, English speaking two legged animal lives were more important than the future of the world.
USA is paying huge for saving such, ultimately useful-for-very-little lives now.
Name your country, k, so that DJT can punish it.
Kulm, it wasn’t to save a few hundred thousand lives. Do you really think those politicians cared about the red-neck’s lives??
It was far more about winning the votes of the parents, so they could stay in office longer and get all the perks…
It always seemed a good idea back then. Now everything is all coming back
“It was a botched win, since to save a few thousand US redneck lives, USA invited USSR to invade China and North Korea, a very, very short sighted idea for which the world is paying for it dearly.”
The USSR was our ally in World War II, and we couldn’t have won the war in Europe without them. I don’t think “redneck lives” were considered by any government during wartime; if governments truly cared about human life, wars wouldn’t happen.
War in Asia was over after nursing. SOVIETS NOT NEEDED
Your favored elites marry their cousins more often than so-called “rednecks”. But as always, empirical reality doesn’t get in your way.
One of the most significant stats to come out this past week was credit creation in China
New Loans actual -340B expected -50B previous 1610B (figures in CNY)
Traditionally, the supply of new money into the economy is undertaken by governments printing banknotes and minting coins (perhaps 3% of money) and commercial banks making loans against collateral. That the money supply is almost entirely created by commercial bank lending is not theory or hypothesis.
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
In recent times some cenral banks have been creating credits to purchase securities for expanding their own balance sheets from the market, generally known as Qualitative Easing (QE), or printing money. Against a USD credit market of (say) 200Tr which includes Eurodollars, the Fed’s balance sheet assets may be some USD 5Tr. Generally, central bank blalance sheet expansion provides liquidity to commercial banks with the intention to stimulate the economy.
As almost all money is created with the necessity to pay interest. As the capital is repaid to a commercial bank its balance sheet and the money supply shrinks while the necessity to pay interest continues until the loan is repaid in full. Consequently, for banking system solvency, credit growth must remain positive. Ongoing negative credit growth in an economy must inevitably lead to loan default which further reduces money supply. Ultimately, if continued beyond margins of fractional reserves, negative credit growth will collapse a currency’s banking system
Following the release of the Chinese loan data, the PBoC injected 348 billion yuan (USD52bn) via overnight reverse repos, described as its first mid-month injection in history.
moss,
Chinese household credit has been in contraction for several months. A lack of demand for credit within China. PBoC can inject all the bank reserves via the overnight repos it wants to. That doesn’t mean the people are going to line up to get loans.
It’s only money if it actually gets loaned into the economy. Tokens sloshing around the banking system isn’t real money chasing real goods and services throughout the economy.
China has been in a 2008 style housing crisis for over two years. The peoples wealth was stored in housing. And they lost a 3rd of their wealth. Imagine if in the US after the 2008 crisis there was no real rebound in asset prices. The peoples purchasing power and ability to borrow have been crushed.
That is China today.
QE should really be view as an asset swap. The central bank is swapping bank reserves for either mortgage back securities or government debt. These credits that are issued by central banks never leave the central banks balance sheet.
A book entry is made on the central banks balance sheet in the name of the commercial bank that the central banks “purchased” the assets from. That credit remains on central banks balance sheet. These credits never leave the central banks balance sheet. As these assets that were “purchased” come to maturity the central banks balance sheet shrinks. And the entry on the central banks balance sheet in the name of the commercial bank disappears.
There is no such thing as central bank liquidity. The commercial banks just regroup and start lending again. With a cleaned up balance sheet. All the bad debt was transferred to the central bank via an asset swap. Not money printing.
Bank reserves aren’t used in REPO to secure a loan btw. Commercial banks don’t want or need bank reserves because bank reserves aren’t collateral.
Commercial banks use government debt as collateral to create new money. Not bank reserves. Commercial banks do not lend out bank reserves. I repeat commercial banks do not lend out bank reserves. They create money buy expanding their balance sheet via a loan backed by collateral. Sometimes loans are made using other things like property as collateral. But not bank reserves.
Chinese banks are buying safety an liquidity in government bonds. Hence the low interest rates in China. Lending into the economy, not so much.
What if commercial banks were facing an economy that was never going to expand. Would they restart things by loaning out money?
Got oil? Because if not contraction is the only thing in your future. It doesn’t matter how many solar panels and wind mills you install.
Having a shirking population is a problem. It is hard for China’s economy to grow with a shrinking population. Same for Japan’s economy.
Jobs shrink as the population shrinks. We don’t need many school teachers.
It becomes impossible for the government to repay debt with interest.
Very confused verbiage, HHH.
.
And your point is ????
Who in hell can make any sense of our financial system these days? It’s corrupt to the core. I have no training or education in finance. But my opinion is that our world civilization is a candle with limited physical resources on one end and the other end burning through a debt-based fractional reserve fiat currency system (both via central banks and commercial banks with ever-decreasing reserve requirements).
Debt is the proverbial hamster wheel or the Red Queen syndrome whereby debt snowballs as interest accrues. If there is no more borrowing ( lending) , then there is no more business expansion needed to service the ever expanding debt. This end of the candle burns ever faster, and our candle burning at both ends burns out even faster.
Politicians are parasites. They have no useful skills or services to offer society. To get re-elected to preserve their miserable lives, paychecks, and pensions, they must promise freebies to the voters. These freebies can only be afforded by issuing debt. Let future generations pay through lowered living standards and debt burdens. And my point is our monetary system is the great enabler of these politicians who have given away our country out of their own self-interests. The bankers and corporations finance the politicians campaigns. The politicians then pass legislation written by the lobbyists. Corporatism mushrooms out of control.
Kulm is correct about this aspect. Politicians and the oligarchy don’t give a SHIT about you, or the sparing of American lower /middle class soldiers’ lives to justify use of the bomb. That was pure BS, just like the mantra that Iran must never have a nuclear weapon. The oligarchs must preserve their MIC cash cow and control at all costs.
To ease you off my tirade, here is a romantic/ meditative/contemplative song about the candle. Note that the goal is for it to burn slowly.
“Something out there outside says we’re only in the hands of time, falling slowly.”
“Politicians are parasites. They have no useful skills or services to offer society” The masses aspire to be like like the politicians–high status parasites because people who have useful skills and services to society by and large are treated poorly. There is, by and large, an inverse relationship between usefulness and social status in many industrialized societies.
There are exceptions, of course, with many artists reporting low status but ….
They aren’t serving “society”. They’re serving the larger imperative to break down energy gradients and create the maximum waste/entropy possible.
Best monologue of the day… so far. I appreciate that you are still angry enough to unleash. If everyone could be angry about how money isnt working anymore…. perhaps actual change could happen.
Im in the process of working out how to construct comfortable mud huts
The MIC contains the seeds of its own destruction?
moss,
Point is. Don’t count on government or central bank intervention to be effective going forward. There is no can kicking unless commercial banks loan the money. And they won’t lend the money in a shrinking economy.
Time to eat your peas so to speak.
Chinese authorities have done round after round after round of stimulus in the past 8 years or so. They have borrow a truly enormous amount of money. Their banking sector absolutely dwarfs the US banking sector. Particularly at the local government level. To try get their economy moving again.
None of it has worked. None of it is going to work. You’d think with all that borrowing interest rates would be sky high. Interest rates aren’t sky high because the stimulus didn’t work.
China is in fact in a depression. Just because nobody wants to call it what it is doesn’t mean it isn’t a depression.
“0:00 Chinese bank loans just put up a record
0:02 contraction. Record contraction.”?
“It’s only money if it actually gets loaned into the economy.”
What the ruling class considers the economy is the companies with large market capitalization and maybe middle size market capitalization values.
That is partially why we hear so much about the Microsoft and its subsidiaries in financial news– they are considered representative of the economy. In other words, if Facebook fails, we’re all doomed.
You are right about
” for banking system solvency, credit growth must remain positive. Ongoing negative credit growth in an economy must inevitably lead to loan default which further reduces money supply.”
The thing that usually keeps growth taking place is a growing supply of cheap to produce energy. Once this is lost (energy either too expensive or starts shrinking in supply), there is a major problem.
The Far East has a problem with its shrinking population. Fewer cars need to be sold each year. Fewer school building need to be built. Way too many homes have been built already.
Of course, what we need is physical goods and services, and they are what is in short supply. The rich are rich in pixels, mostly. They tend to disappear.
https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/socialism-a-system-where-the-government-uses-your-money-to-solve-everyone-elses-problems/
Socialism: A System Where The Government Uses Your Money To Solve Everyone Else’s Problems
They are coming for your money, and they have a ton of momentum right now. Democratic Socialists are winning election after election by promising free stuff, but of course free stuff is never actually free. Somewhere along the way, someone has to pay for it. If you find yourself protectively reaching for your wallet as you read this, I don’t blame you one bit. Socialism is a system where the government uses your money to solve everyone else’s problems. Unfortunately, it is also a system that is becoming increasingly popular among our young adults.
A month ago Russia was burning, the middle east was burning, Japan was re-arming, Germany was re-arming. We were well into the start of WW3. Now silence, quiet, nothing. Donald has not threatened to murder 90 million Iranians this week.
What is going on? We all take a break for end of summer vacations?
Of course! No one wants to miss time on their super-yacht, it just isn’t done.
Recessions and depressions are usually scheduled after the summer vacations. Wars are started on Purim.
In line with the Book of Esther.
Trump figured out that we are pretty much out of ammunition. All he can do is announce strange things about what he will do in the future. This first link is recent, related to an announcement Thursday.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/bessent-us-readies-economic-isolation-iran-world-has-never-seen
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Newsmax Thursday night that the Trump administration will announce unprecedented economic measures against Iran next week, signaling that a sharp escalation in economic warfare is just ahead as negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled. The warning comes as Tehran-linked Houthi rebel forces resume attacks on Saudi Aramco energy infrastructure, raising concerns that the conflict is spreading geographically and pushing Brent crude futures higher.
There is a huge delay in payments relative to actual physical oil transport. Economic isolation of Iran will take forever and ever, and will probably never work.
Earlier (August 12, or three days ago), Trump said something a little different:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-rejects-us-pressure-enters-survival-economy-mediators-desperate-restored-mou
Trump: US Controls Hormuz Strait, ‘I Think We Will Keep It’ – Confirms Economic Siege Strategy
Trump Claims ‘Total Control’ of Hormuz
In his latest Wednesday Truth Social post, Trump issues a familiar refrain (one that will likely be on repeat up to the November midterms), claiming that the USA has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz and “I think we will keep it”. It’s also yet more confirmation that he’s opting for economic siege warfare as the US military campaign is on halt. He also did his bizarre “Praise be to Allah!” sign off…
This was Trump’s post:
The U.S.A. has total control over over the Strait of Hormuz. I THINK WE WILL KEEP IT! Our Naval Blockade is being called, by everyone, “A WALL OF STEEL,” and there is nothing Iran can do about it. They have no Navy, they have no Air Force, their remaining soldiers are unpaid, the IRGC is decimated and fleeing, and their “Leadership” is uncertain, at best! They have No Money – Their country is “shot.” All they have is FAKE NEWS and 300% INFLATION, and getting worse! Iran is all talk and no action, the Bully of the Middle East. No Longer. Praise be to Allah! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Oil availability and price tied to yen & long term treasuries. Held together with chewing gum and bailing wire – Rafi may be correct, or close, and in line with Gail’s affordability thesis
https://youtu.be/tCK880Atzps?is=z0DV4drdVPncYSJz
When Oil Reserves Run Out, the Yen Dies. Then The Dominoes Start Falling.
This fellow is contending that when the SPR reaches the minimum required by law, then the price of oil that Japan needs to import will go through the roof.
naaccoah,
What Rafi is describing is a dollar shortage. Eurodollar banks aren’t creating enough dollars so governments are selling US treasuries.
He is wrong about gold and silver though. In an extreme dollar shortage there will be no bid for gold and silver. Gold and silver get sold too.
To get the dollars needed to service the debts. He is trying to justify his being long precious metals stance.
He is however right about the coming global currency crisis. It won’t be just Japan. It will be all the Asian currencies. It will be Europe. It will be currencies in South and Central America. It will be global.
He is also right to tie the flow of oil to the availability of dollars.
And yes some dollars are going to be flowing out of US markets and assets.
We have deflationary money. As the dollar supply contracts so does the price of things that are priced in dollars.
I’m not saying the price of oil can’t go higher here. I’m saying in the long run the price of oil is likely going to $25 and it’s likely going to stay there.
$25 oil will likely be too expensive for the global economy to afford as this thing continues to play out.
A contracting dollar supply is extremely deflationary.
Governments and central banks are worried about inflation when it’s deflation who is the true bogeyman.
Governments and central banks can’t even properly diagnose the problem much less fix it.
Because government and central banks have absolutely nothing to do with the supply of dollars.
Markets and unemployment numbers will be forcing interest rate cuts soon enough. Bond yields will head back towards zero and negative in some places.
It’s the central banks that are keeping interest rates way higher than they should be. When they get out the way bond yield are going back to zero and negative in some places.
Low interest rates aren’t stimulus though. They don’t stimulate anything. They are a clear sign of depression economics playing out.
US banks can provide all the dollars needed for the US bond market. The world can sell all the treasuries they have and US banks can step in and buy every last bit of it. And make a profit while doing it.
Understand that these large banks. They will gladly buy all of it. If there is no profit to be made lending into the real economy. These banks will just create money and lend to the government instead.
Banks have what is known as a dollar funding cost. Basically it’s what they have to pay in interest for deposits. It’s like 0.5% for the largest of banks.
These banks don’t need money on hand or in a vault somewhere. The expand their balance sheets. Create the credits needs to purchase the bonds. They pocket the difference between what they have to pay for interest on deposits and what interest rate they receive from the bonds they bought.
It’s basically free and guaranteed profits buying bonds instead of lending into the real economy where profits are not guaranteed.
If interest rates are at 3-5% and their dollar funding cost is 0.5%. They are pocketing 2.5-4.5% on trillions of dollars. By lending to the government.
If there is this big Eurodollar shortage, why is the DXY (US $ Index) lower today than in 2023? Am I missing something?
If dollars stop being a effective means of extracting resources they are kaput. No dollars available mean failure of the dollar. Kaput. Valueless. Stocks. Denominated in dollars. Valueless. Kaput.Gold and silver. Denominated in dollars. Valueless. Kaput.
The great delusion.
Something must hold value.
The great delusion.
There is a trade that works.
Secret squirrel and only secret squirrel knows the trade.
Watch the secret squirrel channel on YouTube follow and like.
Or it is necessary to quickly transition to something else, perhaps issued by a different government. The Confederacy lost the civil war; its currency no longer had value. Somehow, a transition needed to be made to a different currency.
We see quite a few examples of this issue over the years.
Bam,
DXY is heavily weighted towards the Euro. Don’t get the Eurodollar and the Euro confused. They are not the same thing.
The dollar shortage is currently mainly in Asia. But if oil imports and gas imports to Europe disappear because we hit tank bottoms and US halts oil and gas exports. The Euro will be right there in just as much trouble as Asian currencies. The Middle East is under real dollar strain as well.
Second thing is. There is massive move going on to provide dollars. Via selling of treasuries, via selling of things like gold like Turkey did.
But once the countries run out of stuff to sell to get the dollars that the banks just aren’t providing a enough of. It’s game over.
Turkey is already out of treasuries and gold. While they aren’t near as important as say Japan is. It’s a preview of what is to come to a currency near you if you happen to not be the dollar.
Meh. Banks are dollar creating machines. They stop creating dollars when fish stop swimming. If the organic economy is too crummy they will create them for the government like you note and .gov will distribute them as they wish. This is the trend. Self organizing economy.
There will be no wealth. Dollars can not hold value. Stocks can not hold value. Gold and silver can not hold value. Wealth for the proletariat is a blip in history. A fairy tale. They will not be pleased.
Every federal reserve note has 8 btu of energy when combusted unlike gold and silver.
dog,
Lets just look at China. Chinese banks have created a pile of debt loaned to the regional or local governments that put the US government borrowing to shame.
Their banking sector is something like 8 times the size of the US banking sector.
No joke. The money supply in China denominated in Chinese yuan. Is something the world has never seen before.
All that loaning money to the local governments in China. Not even a glimpse of inflation.
Very much the opposite.
The US government will never be able to spend money fast enough to keep the money supply from contracting.
Particularly when most of the dollars originate outside the US to begin with.
The US government, the US treasury are small potatoes compared to the Eurodollar market.
Heck even if the FED’s balance sheet was actual money that was being printed. It isn’t but even if it was.
They could expand their balance sheet by $20 trillion. But if the Eurodollar contracted by $40 trillion there would still be a $20 trillion hole in the money supply.
Europe doesn’t matter except for contagion. It will be contained. It was as recently a credit suise. Your euro dollar spiel confuses things perhaps purposely.
Banks may stop loaning into a crummy economy. But not all at once. The difference will be made up by more government debt. The new new deal coming.
Or not. I don’t really care. There is something about your reiteration of certainty I hope you will address.
Your fixation on this topic is hiding something. You are certain about a outcome. You won’t tell us that so repeat the means to the outcome. You have a course of action in mind you believe to be correct. What you are actually doing is reinforcing your belief in a course of action. Get honest here. You have told us the means many many many times. Now tell us what will be the outcome in your opinion and what actions you intend to take. That will reveal your motive. That is honest. There is nothing wrong with opinions as long as motives are openly revealed. Without revealing your motive I find your opinion disingenuous. If you reveal your motive I find it interesting albeit obsessed.
HHH: “Their banking sector is something like 8 times the size of the US banking sector. ”
Global USD credit market is something like 200Tr. Are you suggesting the CNY credit market is something in the order of CNY 10 Quadrillion??
Without having much of a Euroyuan asset pool, this appears on the face of it an impossibly large number to assert.
Any sunstantiation?
Hahahahah
:
moss,
You need to go re-read what i actual said. The Chinese banking sector is 8 times larger than the US banking sector.
Then go find the charts for yourself because those charts showing the credit that has been extended in China are truly amazing. And yes they are available for anybody who cares to go looking. Chinese verse the US, all of Europe and Indian. Chinese credit extend within China absolutely towers over US credit extended in the US by US banks.
I said nothing about the size of the Eurodollar other than the US government and US treasury being too smaller of players in the game to make any difference
I didn’t say that China’s banking sector was larger than the Eurodollar. That is not even close. It’s just larger than the US banking by about 8 times.
I also said if you’re hoping the US government and US treasury can bail the world out of a dollar problem then you are mistaking.
Well that is basically what i said.
HHH,
I appreciate your comments.
Gail
HHH, can’t you substantiate any of your assertions?
This is not an appropriate comment, moss.
?? meanwhile on the same planet :
UKR+[ US/UK/EU intel, gear, funding, spec-op volunteers, .. ] alliance is daily striking RU energy, defense and now even space-program contractor facilities. Supposedly the meek answer from now is to be attack/seize LNG shipments vessels ( incl. third parties ) bound to EU ( all over the globe ) and perhaps into UK as well. That sounds to me as further escalation or re-match in the so far slowly rolling up (pre) WWIII -like situation..
The issue at hand obviously being that in Europe is now 30-35C temp, so not properly-timely pre-filled up gas facilities or seized/rerouted/damaged/ insurance lapsed/.. LNG tankers are a none issue, .. , for at least two next months before ( perhaps ) serious cold arrives..
You see for a certain type of quasi-politico people [ on both sides ], pretending-extending is the preferred method of operating, problems are forced out of mind for as long as possible. So, again [ as of / for now ], all is swell & jolly good..
I remember the heatwave and drought of 1976, here in England. I’d never felt heat like it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heatwave
In the last week of August 1976, during Britain’s driest summer in over 200 years, Denis Howell was made Minister for Drought. Within days it was pissing down all over the country, and Howell was hailed as the most successful minister ever!
It was many years before we had another summer like that. 1977 was also unusual, though. It was the first year of my life in which there was no snow at Christmas. That struck me as very weird.
Right now we have extreme weather in many parts of the world. Normally we can say that nothing lasts forever, so I just hope that this heat and drought are not the new normal. We shall see!
I remember 1976 well, too. The only summer until 2025 and 26 when I’ve occasionally felt too warm, given that I like the heat.
For several years, though, retired engineer Ray Sanders has been triple-checking the official figures put out by the UK Met. Office. To say that he perceives a lack of scientific integrity in the organisation would be an understatement. See: tallbloke.wordpress.com. Also sometimes covered by the Daily Sceptic.
Given the Met. Office’s devious behaviour I can no longer say with any certainty which of these exceptional summers was the warmest in my lifetime. The M. Office actually made up ten years’ worth of weather observations (1975 to 85) for a site near me. See: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/rossonwyedata.txt
Interesting point as to the veracity of weather records.
In the western country I lived mostly 2000-24 the government weather bureau was corporatised, centralised and national weather stations largely automated. A result of this was that almost all weather stations were unmanned and in extreme weather conditions automated data recording was more likely than in normal times to fail. Not an altogether uncommon occurance in the major regional city in which I lived. We could be left without current weather information for four or five days several times a year before “maintenance” would be unertaken and data restored.
Random blanks in the weather record probably wouldn’t matter greatly, but over the long term the removal of weather recording selectively during times of extreme conditions must lead to the loss of integrity of the historic data bank. No one cares.
As a counterpoint, I lived through the “Blizzard of ’78” in Boston, the “worst snowstorm in New England history”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uo0LviHKFHI
It was an amazing experience to walk around the entire city the next day with zero traffic! Magical for a young person with no commute or commitments.
The Norwegian political scientist Prof. Glenn Diesen hosted Alastair Crooke. Alastair was a ranking figure in both British intelligence (MI6) and European Union diplomacy.
Alastair Crooke: Iran & Russia Give Up on Diplomacy & Go on the Offensive
It is hard to blame Iran and Russia for striking back, given recent circumstances. I suppose Trump thinks that the US is protected by two wide oceans, so the violence will mostly stay elsewhere.
No he is praying for an attack on U.S soil. It has always been a dream of his. He saw how dipsh$t bush went to all time popularity. He knows…it would be a dumb move for them to make unless it was a knock out punch. But we all remember pearl harbour
An attack would give DJT an excuse to say, “Everyone needs to stay at home as much as possible, to allow as much fuel as possible to be used for the war effort.”
Such an approach would keep oil demand, and thus prices, down.
I think there might be validity to HHH speculation that this time is different. I see his fundamental thesis is banks create the money of a economy through loans. Banks have their own continuence as a motive and that loans must be paid. Since the fundamental belief of this blog is energy is the economy the current circumstances will create a unusual unwillingness to create money out of thin air by the banks.
Nonetheless
It wasn’t different in 2008
It wasn’t different with the EU sovereign bond crisis
It wasn’t different with COVID
For half a century doom investing looses like pee wee vs Tyson.
This on top of what appears to be the mother of all free stuff for all deficit spending and MMT on the horizon. Currency debasement even more extreme. The quintessential market maker.
The question to my mind is has the power of demand destruction really diminished? If it has not it has the power to reset currency debasement in relative terms. We all need money to live. When it grows scarce things have always gotten cheaper. If this remains true can things really be different? The question is one of supply. Can reduced energy supply be overwhelmed by demand destruction? But as Gail has educated us cost to produce is not insignificant. The 800lb gorilla the two energy producers with low cost to produce gulf and Russia are radically reducing outputs. The gulf has been the one willing to sell into demand destruction
And triple Ms argument is a significant hypothesis. This circus is simply to rotton to lend into.
Abundant and affordable energy is the only cure for stagflation.
Place your bets.
Gutters feeding a rain barrel is a reasonable bet.
Pray for precipitation.
If a government doesn’t collapse and prints money to bail out banks, insurance companies, pension plans, and everything else, then we get hyperinflation. It doesn’t provide physical goods. It is likely to lead to collapsing government, IMO.
I am firmly in the hyper-deflation camp. When hyper-deflation was in its early stages in 1933, FDR’s Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon (an oligarch himself) famously cried “Liquidate, liquidate, liquidate!” FDR – not a fan of the oligarchs – overruled him and we got The New Deal instead. I believe this time will be different. The oligarchs are very firmly in control of most everything now. There can be no “Great Taking” without a crushing deflation which leads to mass debt defaults and foreclosures. “You will own nothing…”
That’s a great point, thanks.
At some key historical crossroads the personalities matter more than in others ..
So, to trivialize, FDR saved the econ-social fabric NOT to get the war asap, but at least came more prepared afterwards in the early 1940s.
While now they don’t care about the econ-social fabric at all, and want various wars asap. So, perhaps that could lead ( in reversed logic ) to shorter – less pronounced WWIII after-all.
Gail, hasn’t the historical choice been collapse now, or create inflation/hyper inflation and collapse a bit later, with those in power always choosing the latter to keep going in case, or blind hope, something magical turns up??
More on why the AI bubble is very much like the debt housing bubble that collapsed in 2008
https://www.zerohedge.com/ai/forget-cdos-meet-ccos-isnt-tech-cycle-its-2008-silicon
In July, the appropriately-named ‘Groundbreaker’ website laid out a structural diagnosis that most of the market still refuses to confront: the AI boom is not a technology cycle. It is a credit-driven real-estate-like cycle whose financing architecture depends on the second derivative.
Levels (backlogs, gigawatts, revenue, token usage) and the first derivative (growth rates) remain the only numbers anyone watches.
The second derivative – the acceleration of that growth – is where regime change actually lives.
Structures built on the assumption of perpetual acceleration do not require a collapse in demand or a decline in absolute spending to break.
They break when growth merely stops accelerating.
That is the 2008 mechanic, not the current one. And the collateral of this particular cycle is not houses. It is compute.
Later
The pitch is no longer subtle: Nvidia’s GPUs are now an investable asset class. Chips can be housed in special-purpose entities, pledged as collateral, and financed against the cash flows they are expected to generate – exactly as buildings or toll roads once were.
Jensen Huang has said the quiet part out loud: technology chips have become collateral.
But now the cost of compute is starting to head downward. This is similar to the cost of homes starting to head downward in the 2008 cycle. The debt bubble will again collapse.
The timing is when the housing bubble collapsed was quite late, after home prices actually started to fall. (First derivative turned negative. But the article says:
There is a window – call it borrowed time – between the moment the second derivative rolls over and the moment the first derivative crosses zero. During that window everything looks fine. Revenue is at record highs. Growth is still positive. The press releases are triumphant. And the machine is already broken; it simply has not been told yet.
This is where we are now with AI.
I don’t know if the conclusion you have presented is correct. It was my understanding that A.I. was fueled by cash that Silicon Valley companies were sitting on. The main companies building A.I. products–Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Nvidia did not borrow money to build out their A.I. products. If this is correct, then, structurally, the A.I. bubble is nothing like the subprime lending that lead to the 2008 recession.
Zerohedge is claiming:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/russia-admits-renewed-petrol-shortages-after-recently-claiming-situation-was-stabilized
Russia Admits Renewed Petrol Shortages After Recently Claiming Situation Was Stabilized
Russia has shut down one major refinery at Orsk, around 800 miles from the front line, for six months after it came under drone attack this week. It has also suffered more terminal outages due to continued attacks on a vital Black Sea energy port.
“Crude oil exports from Russia’s Sheskharis terminal at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk were suspended on Friday following a drone attack, three sources familiar with the matter said, adding to disruptions at one of the country’s key export outlets,” Reuters reports.
In a rare moment, the Russian government acknowledged that some regions of the country face new petrol shortages. “The situation remains tense in several regions of the country regarding fuel supplies to service stations,” the government newly confirmed in a Friday social media post.
Not seen here. I used my last canister since I never have to wait in line now. Only nuisance is that they give you diesel only in metal canisters (max. 250 liters). I park the car so they do not see me, flash them my only two good canisters, and proceed to fill both good and bad canisters. we are finishing the season buying 200 or 300 liters at a time. They have become aware that privately owned stations are getting squeezed so they are letting private suppliers and stations fix the price how they want (typically 90 to 100). I just buy at rosneft or gazprom at 77 or 78 rubles per liter.
A couple of things to point out about Chinese coal mining. The average depth of Chinese coal is somewhere between 500-750 meters deep. Compare that to say Indonesia coal mine that are on average 50-150 meters deep.
The average Chinese coal mine gets 20-30 meters deeper every year. I’d go out on a limb and say EROI on Chinese coal isn’t really 50:1.
Not only that but EROI on Chinese coal is falling every year. If oil and gas inputs to get the coal out of the ground and to market go away. And they had to use the energy in coal itself to get more coal out of the ground EROI will be much, much lower.
CTL or coal to produce more electricity via solar panels to produce more coal or just straight up burning more coal to produce electricity to produce more coal. Inputs to produce that coal matter.
And the more they use coal to get more coal. The faster what remaining reserves that are left disappear.
I think the reality is coal in China has about 10-20 years max. Because what is left will be 1000 meters or deeper on average during that timeline.
Also China won’t be manufacturing anything for the rest of the world beyond 20 years. The silk road was never about selling Chinese products. It’s about securing energy imports. Imports that will eventually be going away.
And i do realize Chinese coal seams produce natural gas. Which helps but that coal is still getting deeper every year.
You mention that Chinese coal keeps getting deeper. It also keeps getting farther away from city centers, which are more to the Southeast. This means that more oil is needed for transport. Or it needs to be burned in place for electricity, and the electricity must be transported long distance. Long distance electricity transmission requires building long distance transmission lines, which is both expensive and time-consuming.
All of this means that Chinese coal is becoming more and more expensive to produce, and thus more unaffordable to customers. EROI calculations don’t price in all of the various costs, including interest on debt used to build the long distance transmission lines. They also don’t consider the importance of diesel in Chinese coal extraction and delivery.
I think that Chinese coal extraction is already near limits. The price of Chinese coal does not seem to be rising high enough to cover the cost of extraction and delivery. This is the sign that peak coal is already occurring. Prices rose to a peak in 2022, when oil prices were high related to the Ukraine war, but they have fallen back down.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal
Gail, It’s probably not as close to limits as everyone thinks, as China only converts resources to the reserve category when needed.
In Xinjiang there are hundreds of billions of close to the surface sub-bituminous coal easily accessible.
I agree other limits, of water, transport etc will come into play, but these resources become reserves at not much more than a stroke of a pen. So coal by itself is not the real limit in China, which is probably why they are expanding their CTL, CTG coal to chemicals etc based on this coal..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BXi5JDbgYvU
America’s Largest Mortgage Lender Just Needed a $1.5 Billion Bailout
United Wholesale Realtors needed the bailout. They had been telling people not to worry about high interest rates; mortgage rates will go down and you can refinance at a lower rate.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/06/united-wholesale-mortgage-plunges-40percent-suspends-dividend-raises-capital-.html
Pickup in shorts demand ( availability around ~4.5M daily ) :
11 hours ago 2026-08-15 01:09:16.439
3,900,000 ( “rise” from avg 4.5M)
1 day ago 2026-08-14 12:02:16.563
4,100,000
..
.
The short spike ( volume ratio ) was indeed around [ 2026-08-06 ] +1day
=> ~70% hah.. As per that Gail’s linked article.
Previous 3days earlier in August volatility picks up around 35-39-43% as perhaps ~insiders smelled the blood.. There are more statistics avail. but behind paywall :
https://fintel.io/ss/us/uwmc
..
.
__
my comment: so it’s probably calm-secured by now, but some ~timid ” after party ” shorting activity continues.. as in above selected very recent few dayz.. ; and as per their disclaimer this is NOT the whole market ( dark pools ) etc.
We are starting to see more troubled company reports. The WSJ is now reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/jane-street-suffers-loss-of-about-15-billion-due-to-troubles-at-situation-awareness-9be40c51
Jane Street Suffers Loss of About $15 Billion Following Troubles at Situational Awareness
Trading firm posted its worst month ever in July after bets at Leopold Aschenbrenner’s hedge fund soured
Reading through the article, the loss was essentially related to leveraged AI bets that went the wrong way.
Motorbikes sales are rising, motorbike accident deaths, too.
Slovaks are buying motorbikes in droves, partly in an effort to save money. The favourite is clear, with Chinese brands surging ahead
Sales could break a new record.
https://www.sme.sk/index/c/slovaci-vo-velkom-nakupuju-motorky-favorit-je-jasny-dopredu-sa-deru-vyhodni-cinania
Tragedy on the D4 motorway near Bratislava: A 17-year-old motorcyclist crashed into the crash barriers; the paramedics were unable to save her
https://www.pravda.sk/spravy/regiony/clanok/2024655-tragedia-na-d4-pri-bratislave-len-17-rocna-motocyklistka-narazila-do-zvodidiel-zachranari-jej-uz-nedokazali-pomoct
Motorbikes are cheaper than cars, but they offer less protection in crashes.
This has been already solved 2-3decades earlier or so .. via front two wheeler motorcycles ( good for rain/ice/snow/dirt-sand.. ), but the slightly elevated cost and MORE importantly less ” s.e.x.y. ” looks* for the end consumer hence no success. in mass adoption.
Summary: motorcycle riders simply [ like to die ] fashionably stylish at that.. case closed. The answer if asking vehicle, medical or social insurance company about the wasted money on crashed vehicles; excess of dead-injured-crippled human-oids ..
__
* yes and some token effect on lowered accel. rate there..
My husband was just listening recently to a piece on the history of the Lambretta, a utilitarian scooter developed in Italy after WWII in the wake of a confluence of bad/destroyed roads and increased poverty.
As Italians’ wealth and capacity to purchase small cars increasing, the Lambretta factory was sold off to the Indian government in the early 1970s, chasing the same confluence: bad roads and a poor populace desiring mobility.
Yes, it was a phenomenon.
The issue with the ” scooter culture ” as massively adopted transportation mode is that it tends to work dramatically different across the world, sort of being local condition ( mind-set ) dependent as well ( not only fair-weather or hill vs. flat land compliance ).
So, it’s possible to argue that in most of Asia and say certain ClubMed areal, specifically: Spain, Italy and Greece the traffic accident rate ( and severity of injuries ) would tend to be minimal vs. other ( northern ) areas of the world.
Perhaps with the exceptions as applied per university towns and other sleepy areas w.out the rushing inner city construction works, heavy car traffic 24/365 etc.
It’s a bit similar to the diverse adoption of cycling culture among various societies across the world, meaning d/d transport not leisure activity. While mass adopted at some places ( urban centers ), yet impossible in others ( meant chiefly as per traffic conflict incidence ).
Someone please explain to me how a company with 6 billion market cap can fall 96% in one day (about 13 to 0.41 from Aug 12 -> Aug 13), then rebound back to about where it was (Aug 14).
https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/BYND:NASDAQ?window=1M
I don’t get it … is this invalid data, or proof of market manipulation, or what?
” Readies 1:30 reverse split.. ” -> overnight 13-14/Aug/2026.
This has been in the stock news in previous dayz.
They are trying various tricks to stay listed in the Nasdaq Global Select Market.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beyond-meat-readies-1-for-30-reverse-stock-split-a0eec926?mod=mw_quote_news
And if you look at the company from the beginning this is not a normal stock, but highly volatile to the the downswing, 26% of float is being shorted now..
Yeah, thanks. Google charts data feeds or processes don’t quite keep up with events.
Nevermind, looks like google charts isn’t accounting for the reverse split that just happened.
Can you share/hint why the interest in them in the first place ?
No reason, I just have a watch list that covers a gamut of sectors to try to maintain a feel for what’s happening. Saw this and thought “market chicanery!”, but it was a false alarm – everything is so screwed up that I’m tilting at windmills.
““The Stock Exchange is something very different. There is no economy and no production of goods and services. There are only fantasies in which people from one hour to the next decide that this or that company is worth so many billions, more or less. It doesn’t have a thing to do with reality or with the Swedish economy.”
-Stieg Larsson, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
if you look at the performance of the dow jones its been making huge gains since the 80s their is a possibility that the powers that be are backing the whole thing making sure it will never collapse in the 80s it was around the level of 1500 pts now were looking at 54000 how much is that per year over 50%.
Anyone putting their full faith in the stock market since the 80s will never have to work again they are guaranteed their same pay packet adjusted for inflation until they die.
I personally have been betting against the stock market for nearly 40 years thinking it will collapse but so far so good the powers that be have been winning, we shall see what happens by the end of 2026, I think the crash will be epic.
The crash of 2026 they will call it , it will eclipse 1929 and their will be no comeback people will be devastated and will be spend the next few years going through the 4 stages of grief once they realise the bust is permanent they will start looking for people to blame and the don will be the logical patsy .
The powers that be cannot have the truth come out that the collapse was biological in nature if that ever comes out then it will get very ugly for all the leaders in the world pitchforks and lynchmobs.
As states curtail water use in agriculture farmers are increasingly switching to hemp. This is not the tall rope plants if times past but smaller oily plants with very low THC content for CBD products. Hemp uses no pivot irrigation aquifer or ditch water if intermittent rainfall occurs. These plants are identical in appearance to the high THC plants cultivated illegally in Asia and middle east. Crazy to see endless fields cultivated by big ag.
But we can’t eat CBD products, in the same way we can eat bread or potatoes. They don’t provide food products.
But if we are eating less meat, we may need less corn and other food to feed to animals. We will still feed a lot to automobiles in the form of ethanol, however.
Hemp seed yields nominally 15% of the calories compared to corn and about 65% of the protein compared to soybeans but is more readily digestible than soy and more nutritious than corn.
The cost to harvest and process hemp for seed is much less hemp for cbd.
The cost to pollinate an existing field is almost negligible as air current can distribute pollen up to 60 km. You don’t even need to hire a crop duster. Just drop seeds in the vicinity area and they will germinate and mature and 50% of those plants will be male.
Maybe we will start seeing hemp food products offered in our stores.
The industry struggled to find low THC varieties. THC must be below .3 percent. Perhaps wat we need is food stuff varieties that have both low THC and low CBD. That might be difficult the plant seems to inherently more medicinal than food stuff but I am not informed here. Just observing those oily resiny squat plants shouts psychoactive substance not wheat potatoes or corn to me. A low water high protein crop could well be a godsend.
Hemp cultivation tends to eliminate all high THC dispensary greenhouse operations. All those nasty male plants and pollen fertilizes those lovely female flowers. Even HEPA air filtration can’t do the trick within 10 or 15 Miles. it’s like sperm it only takes one. As early investors found out. Multi million greenhouses built in hemp country sit vacant.
Thank you for your providing metrics on nutritional value over and above CBD including cost basis metrics. Metrics may be irrelevant since the food product can be produced without unobtanium -water. Any food beats no food.
Way too many things are pointing to recession now.
There is a report out today:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/weak-retail-sales-number-adds-to-softening-economic-data-c047dce9
Retail sales dropped by 0.6% last month, the Commerce Department reported Friday, falling short of the 0.1% increase that economists had expected. The numbers landed a week after the monthly jobs report showed the economy lost 23,000 jobs in July. Earlier this week, moderate inflation figures also undercut concerns that the economy is overheating.
July’s sales setback extended beyond gasoline stations, where lower prices had been forecast to keep sales totals in check. Sales in the “control group” categories of everyday products that economists track closely fell by 0.4%, the first such decline this year.
The retail sales increases are not “inflation adjusted.” A drop of 0.6% is not good at all, especially when jobs are down. And it extended beyond oil prices.
Also, we recently saw that US household debt is down. I consider this a major red flag. People are tapped out on added debt. Without added household debt, the economy tends to contract.
B has an interesting article about China’s coal:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/coal-the-next-chokepoint
Coal: The Next Chokepoint
How ‘peak coal’ could become China’s Achilles’ heel
Excerpts:
The only real, tangible change in coal use has come in the shape of a rapid rise in coal-to-chemicals processing.³ China, recognizing its vulnerability to oil imports, has quietly built out a massive coal liquefaction and gasification industry to turn coal mined in remote regions like Xinjiang into valuable chemical inputs used by a range of industries. Doing so they hit two birds with one stone: having replaced 100 million tonnes of oil equivalent (or ~2 mb/d) of oil and gas annually, while making remote costly-to-transport coal worthwhile to extract at the same time. See, shipping valuable chemicals via rail is far more profitable than doing the same with lumps of coal. This new industry also provided 80% of the urea fertilizer produced by China, allowing the country to maintain its annual urea exports of ~5 million tons and saving natural gas (from which urea is traditionally made) for other uses.
Also:
Over the past five years China has become more dependent on coal than ever during its 5000 years of history. China has grown into the world’s largest coal importer, scooping up ~30% of all export capacity worldwide in the past few years (compared to ~19% before 2021). China, at the end of 2025, already imported more than 11% of its overall coal consumption, thus with domestic production (not consumption!) peaking as reserves deplete and mines are retired, they will likely face a massive and worsening coal squeeze in the years and decades ahead. Especially, if their largest foreign supplier by far, Indonesia, continues to industrialize leaving less and less coal for export. Beijing will then have to rely increasingly on Mongolia and Russia for imports. Since moving coal thousands of miles via rail would take a lot of energy, this would be a costly and limited option compared to seaborne imports. I expect the United States to grab this opportunity trying to put a squeeze on and to gain leverage over the Chinese economy.
Sorry to repeat what Hubbs just said. But I do have a couple of excerpts.
I post it here, but it’s also a follow-up to our conversation bellow w. Xabier about plandemics. What if ” we PO aficionados ” had it wrong, and the climate worry is actually [ priority #1 ], at least in the presiding councils ?!?
Yes addressed up to now with either the wrong tools and or decision-making compromises, lets say the first attempt was conciliatory in the sense lets try techno-fix via renewables build-up and the harsh stuff reserved only later should it not go well..
The past ~270 yrs of (proto->)industrial age indeed boosted the CO2 levels ( ppm ) in the atmosphere by ~70%, that’s corresponding to prior warmer episodes of upto +4C globally few million yrs ago, meaning quite different living biosphere arrangements around that time.
Now, ” after PO ” it’s very probable that emergency-coping attempts by at least some regions are going to be based on burning alive or fossilized biomass again no matter what. You can picture it as these after peaks of lower profile as per Nate Hagens’ work.
So, if you are in position ( desire ) to squelch it all for good, you do what ? Well you focus as priority on the very agency ” doing the harm ” aka the human-oids en masse! Therefore trimming the pop around, at this very time ( near PO ) seems fitting to that train of thought, also it fits the deliberate genetics aim at Asians (+RU), where most of the remaining coal seams are just in waiting mode..
I think trimming the population has a great deal more to do with limited physical output in the future, because of limits to growth, than it has to do with fear of CO2 and what it might do to future generations.
A major issue is not enough fresh water to go around. This by itself is trimming interest in increasing population.
Fear of climate change is mostly a way of selling smaller populations to people.
The fact that having children is unaffordable to young people seems to be the way that this is playing out.
Yes, but what if all the future summers will be alike this one experienced today here (EU and Asia), it’s 40-43C in South Korea and Japan, crops over there just self-imploding into dust during less than single last week!
Or lets say more realistically 3-4x such summers from now on per every decade, with the rest in between providing just very little reprieve ?
Well, then we can just call it off ( the human-oid experiment ), because these are not conditions for living, or unless the whole planet suddenly relocates to mountain’s elev., which is ~impossible per given numbers and necessary whole spectrum of re-arrangements. And if the temps cont. move up 4-6C it would be then futile even there anywayz.
Hm, that’s an unexpected bummer and timely [ very last ] warning. Looking from one window into neighbor’s place: dark yellow burned out short cut grass since April or sooner, and few struggling old fruit trees, omg. And recently felled large section of nearby forest to improve the micro-climate for sure.., cre#ins everywhere around.
Took a lot of effort and almost two decades to plant dozens of bushes and trees, and y/y add. care at my place. Now what ?
Should this repeat again even in milder form before 2030, well I’m signing off, going to sell it all, and move seriously northbound & alt. combo, even if had to economize down seriously in terms of ~acreage. Hi there ” Gail “, what about upper-central Norway? Comparatively Finland is full of crazy people and not sure about the insect-moist boggy areas ( if they prevail ), and for RU don’t have the stamina in my age. CDN similar to FI(n) crazies, plus they will be taken by US vigilantes on the move up there in short order anyway..
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[the end] of slightly elevated bodily temp dreamy globo-warm-up [ hazard ahead ] relayed-message
This summer was fairly normal in Southern Sweden. Less rain than usual temp mostly 20-25 C. Only few days around 30.
Around here 2018 is considered extreme. Around 30 C almost every day from mid may to mid aug.
Christopher> thanks for filling up the report-overview from Sweden. I’ve been only in the ~southern part and during somewhat rainy/snowy years, decades ago.
If the scenarios under discussion pan out, it will be really bad for the entire Scandinavia, as people from the continent proper down here, will try to escape-relocate northbound to ” yours place “..
Not sure what kind of precaution could be then realistically taken both per govs-society and individually.
“If the scenarios under discussion pan out, it will be really bad for the entire Scandinavia, as people from the continent proper down here, will try to escape-relocate northbound to ” yours place “
If the crisis gets obvious with rationing etc, theoretically, the swedish government could start guarding the waters. Sweden is surrounded by waters to the south. In similar fashion the governemnt of Denmark could guard the danish islands where most of the people live. Danish mainland would need some kind of Trumpian-wall at the German border. Of course this is very far from the present day government attitude so perhaps not really likely.
Individually you could choose to settle somewhat away from the most populated areas. I have choosen a forrested place. Doing some permaculture-like small-scale agriculture, not for livelihood, spare time only. If you do some cultivar selection you can get most species of nuts/fruits that work in central europe to also work fine in southern Sweden. Probably much harder for some species to thrive in Norway/Finland. The thin coastal line of Norway is very mild so that is an exception.
If you do get serious about settling in scandinavia and if you need some further information, feel free to get in touch. Gail could probably provide you with my mail-adress, if you ask her.
Christopher, thank you for you considered and detailed response.
It’s perhaps more about gradually going through and internalizing various shock-reaction stages ( and shamelessly displayed-announced publicly here ) on my part.
In reality, it’s very doubtful I’d relocate ( foreign country ) now in my age, more over given the toil invested in the current setup. As mentioned before because of the slight elevation I’m still ” ahead ” few years or hopefully a single decade vs the more unfortunate population dwelling in the real drought stricken areas and lower altitudes.
Perhaps if the emergency call into action really comes during very few next yrs, meaning confirmed ( lived by ) spike in ~4-6C temp incoming for almost every conseq. year from now on then, I’d rather relocate locally to more hilly-mountainous area and adjust ( trim down severely ) the spectrum of ~crops under cultivation there and obviously leave behind most of the creature comforts and ~luxuries attained; perhaps calling it the [ inner exile ] last encampment only scenario.
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PS my previous comment on ~central .no was meant in that context as well, as if the assumed-incoming spike in avg temp will get really pronounced there as well; and being sort of less prioritized/desired angle-destination of migration for most of the people at that point of time
I’m thinking along the same lines. Just guessing. Too little too late.
Releasing not native lab developed plant or animal species to try to fix a problem always seems to be a disaster. I imagine micro biology is no different. But if guesses are true it won’t matter anyway even if they try to attempt a catastrophic solution. I imagine the new measure and countermeasure will leave more of a mark than the dud. Can’t they come up with something that doesn’t work by filling the lungs with rubber cement and turning them into necrotic tissue? Geez.
But if so why the omicron sterilizing vaccine with its eight spontaneous genome changes with no previous evolutionary history? Inquiring minds want to know.
Guesses could explain a lot. Like why pee wee pooty hasn’t gone mid evil on their asses. Bigger plans afoot? A nice comforting world war could distract nicely.
Another winter without snow pack and the southwest is in deep deep doo doo. Flaming gorge reservoir won’t last forever. We could run the aquifers dry in ten years not thirty.
Maybe old FE with his stocking up on certain things for the gravest extreme wasn’t as off base as I thought. I’m not one to give up before the fat lady has sung but good to be prepared. Just as long as that genie stays in the bottle until you get your magic wish. I could do that. It would have to be double plus Furiosa learns to swim for me. I just really don’t like keeping I dream of genie around.
All speculation of course. We will just have to see. In the meantime my pup had a wonderful day at the dog park while I sipped kefir and discussed normie things with normies quite enjoyably. BAU baby.
“Walter Haugen
Not a word about WHY coal is so important to China. Its high EROI vs oil and gas. 50:1 for coal. 20:1 for oil. 5:1 for natural gas. These are broad global averages so don’t nitpick my numbers. The principle is sound.”?
I guess it has been mentioned indirectly in the article, as the author at least twice mentioned the delivery over long distance train route ( el. or diesel needed ) as being too costly vs local mining.. or Asian vector shipped, thus energy-wise not making sense.
And also the over-reliance on available domestic coal ( in abundance for next 30yrs ) was a key motive chosen by CHN for a reason as a bridge to other tech ( crossing their fingers – as in hopium bet ? ).. Perhaps the author did not want to mention EROI on purpose like that.
Btw. tangent > in conclusion he mentions other energy mining-processing intensive stuff like Nickel, which is used in various approaches in cathode material for next-gen solid state batteries. But supposedly the most advanced versions of them coming 2030s should not be using such metals at all.. So, perhaps that’s the vector CHN is betting on, like having in a decade or so grid sized arrays of solid-state batteries based on more otherwise plentiful raw inputs, not sure what specifically that could be some new spin-off from well proven LFP ( ferrous ).. ?
Btw.2 ” FE ” > resurfaces in the commentariat over there..
Basic intro into first/early gen of solid state batts..
https://reade.com/advanced-materials-industry-insights/the-materials-race-behind-solid-state-batteries/
China’s coal EROI is not as high as 50. Its delivered EROI is definitely not this high, if it needs to be transported long distances to where it can be used. EROI calculations are used so that graduate students can estimate costs of producing different products. But real costs are just as important.
As always, B is one of few remaining blogs ( besides OFW of course) worth reading.
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/coal-the-next-chokepoint?
An almost eerie parallel to a 3 Gorges dam breach if earthquakes, flooding, silt buildup, and faulty construction reach critical mass. A bedrock of energy that may come back and bite millions of people.
This is the perfect response to that “Inside China Business” guy.
CTL and GTL are BS . Repeat .
https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/870298/end-of-the-only-refinery-of-its-kind-in-south-africa-risks-stripping-r10-billion-and-24900-jobs/
That has been my view also. They are very expensive. We need cheap to produce end products.
End of Empire, 1985, Chapter 7: Iran. Eng. 51 mins. Youtube.
“End of Empire chronicled the last days of British rule around the globe, through the remarkably candid reminiscences of both colonizers and the colonized.
The series, a Granada Television production, uses old newsreel film and interviews with former British and Iran officials.”
https://tinyurl.com/29p45ebp
(Idk if link shorteners are accepted here so ? maybe this won’t show..)
Encapsulates a lot of the history with heh 😉 ‘flavor’ in the words and manners of the British.
The US and Britain were interfering with Iran as early as 1951 to 1953. This video uses old newsreel tapes to show the real situation in Iran back then.
Wikipedia says about this period:
In 1951, the Iranians nationalized the oil through a parliamentary bill on 21 March 1951. This caused a lot of tension between Iran and the UK. After the events of 1953, scores of Iranian political activists from the National and Communist parties were jailed or killed. This coup only added to the deep mistrust towards the British in Iran. It has since been very common in Iranian culture to mistrust British government.
The end of World War II brought the start of American dominance in Iran’s political arena, and with an anti-Soviet Cold War brewing, the United States quickly moved to convert Iran into an anti-communist bloc, thus considerably diminishing Britain’s influence on Iran for years to come. Operation Ajax and the fall of Prime Minister Mosaddegh was perhaps the last of the large British involvements in Iranian politics in the Pahlavi era. The British forces began to withdraw from Persian Gulf in 1968.[9] This was done out of economic considerations as the British simply could not continue to afford the costs of administration. (See also East of Suez). As part of this policy, in 1971, the then British government decided not to support the Shah and eventually, the patronage of the United Kingdom ended, and consequently, this role was filled by the US.[10]
Yes Gail! I was trying to show -> ain’t new.. and is persisting, ongoing..
Origins. OIL was first discovered in ‘Persia’ in SW Iran (thereabouts – haven’t looked at old docs. maps etc. so ?) around 1900.
It was British Empire Chaps and Global Financiers (my terms) who latched on to exploit it and founded the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (wiki below) with GB owning a majority stake.
Iran’s oil was exploited by ‘Foreign Cos’ (a familiar scenario) without much kick-back except to ‘enforcers, collaborators’ – bribed, propped up, to go along.
Ex. We all know about the Shah. See recently his pathetic son Reza hoping for some kind of position today, etc.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Persian_Oil_Company
The times when GB then US Empire can barrel (sic) in and order about – is ending, multiple cracks, hold-fast oppostions, and more, are happening.
It goes on and on and on. Some say that animosity dates back to the Book of Ester in the Old Testament.
Fauci is only an example of the decay that has taken place.
https://disinformationchronicle.substack.com/p/anthony-fauci-and-the-collapse-of
Anthony Fauci and the Collapse of Scientific Authority
Academics celebrated a dishonest science administrator, exposing the decay of the biomedical enterprise.
The pandemic did not create the dysfunction inside biomedical science. It placed a magnifying glass over science institutions that had been decaying for decades. Grant politics, unfounded hype, administrative expansion, scientific gerontocracy, institutional self-protection, and the punishment of dissent were already pervasive. Fauci enabled the public to watch those forces operate through one person on television every day.
Biomedical institutions did not create a single Fauci. They created thousands. The pandemic spotlight simply made one of them famous.
What the diaries reveal
Fauci’s diaries offer an unusually revealing account of how he understood his role during the pandemic. Written as notes toward a future autobiography, they show what he considered important enough to preserve about those years.
Reiner Fuellmich still incarcerated. Maximum security.
This we have a comparison of the fates of the greatest participant of the narrative and a individual who dared question it
https://www.americaoutloud.news/heroic-reiner-fuellmich-is-still-imprisoned-by-germany/
Quite unusual for a white collar crime especially a lawyer who has represented peoples justice all of his professional life to be incarcerated. Normally embezzlement is considered a almost civil matter even when the funds are not recovered. Here all funds were recovered confiscated actually. That was the embezzlement trying to keep the funds from confiscation. Maximum security facility is beyond unusual. Example set. A lawyer who believed in the law. We can add that to the unusual list. I would guess counselor Fuellmich education to be complete. You don’t try to carry the whole load of education. Everyone takes a little piece. A little piece here a little piece there.
But the question becomes with critical thinking extinct what’s the point? Someone just slings a despicable name box that puts everything in gang psychology terms. No respect for truth or individuals in a name calling contest and that is the point. That was Mr Fuellmich sin. He bypassed gang psychology by creating a process for objective analysis that he believed deeply in in a personal kind and human manner. There was no angst. There were no boxes. There was no hatred. Unacceptable.
Both sides fell into the trap. How delightfully seductive the trap was. Endless videos of peoples eyes rolling up in there head and collapsing Now the results are in. Gang psychology rules. Mr Fuellmich created a process that did not condone gang psychology. Unacceptable.
This is the blurb that goes along:
In the world of leaders who have investigated and informed citizens everywhere about the malevolent intentions behind the COVID pandemic, one of the most effective has been lawyer Reiner Fuellmich, who continues to be silenced and imprisoned in Germany after one of the most bizarre and abusive “trials” ever to occur in a modern courtroom in the Western World. The German administration should be genuinely ashamed for exposing themselves as puppets of the Globalist cabal who are silencing dissenters who revealed the true nature of the COVID policies and practices.
Thx for update on Fuellmich, terrible.
In France, a well-known and respected Doc (in Virology internationally, on all kind of Boards, Dir. of X, etc.) Didier Raoult did not question the ‘natural origins’ of the virus.
When vaxx came in he didn’t denounce but stated ‘low efficacity’ -> ‘only for old ppl’ and so on.
He blasted the treatments used, refused to apply them, promoted anti-virals like Ivermectin, went often on TV explaining so, treated tens of thousands or more of ppl in his district (Marseilles), etc.
At the start of COV-19 Macron requested a consultation w. him, invited him to Paris, Raoult refused and Macron had to go Down South to meet w. him. 🙂 So he is a kind of ‘hero’ in the dissident F space.
Raoult in 2026 on MSM TV, in F. Title: **All the Institutions financed by the State end up capitulating..** His latest book is titled “La société du factice, journal d’un complotiste” – The society of ‘fake’, journal of a conspiracy theorist.
12 mins. https://tinyurl.com/fzmd5emf
In F certain margins of dissidence are allowed, to then have them challenged on MSM TV (Ex. Err… How do you know that ?? With exagerated worried nasty frown from sexy young black F gal who knows nothing about the issues .. see vid.)
Fuellmich went all out, that can’t be allowed.