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History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
This is at the mouth of the Red Sea. Houthis are closely allied with Iran.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-seize-yemeni-port-mocha-giving-greater-leverage-over-bab-al-mandab-strait
Houthis Seize Yemeni Port Of Mocha, Gaining Greater Leverage Over Bab Al Mandab Strait
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi militants (Ansar Allah) have scored a major victory against Saudi-backed government forces, after the war was fiercely reinvigorated this month, having seized a historic Red Sea port on Thursday which effectively givens the Houthis even greater leverage over the Bab Al Mandab Strait.
The port of Mocha – also spelled Mokha or Al Makha – once stood at the center of the global coffee trade and is a common household name internationally, but now is also the place from where Iranian proxies could further squeeze global energy markets.
According to the latest on the fluid battle lines via Reuters, “The group [Ansar Allah] has launched attacks on the strategic Red Sea islands of Hanish, pushing government forces and their allies south to Dhubab, which sits directly on the strait across from the island of Perim, the Yemeni sources told Reuters on Thursday.” And more: “Control of Dhubab and the island is key to gaining hold of the strait, they said.” . . .
Fresh unconfirmed reports Thursday say that the Houthis have now actually reached the Red Sea islands of Hanish. If true this would be a further strategic advantage for taking more coastline.
Google maps shows that the two main islands are about 8 miles across. There are a few more rocks. I assume the US could come in and “liberate” those islands to claim a victory. But in the past they have been successfully targeted by Yemen while being on the other side of the Red Sea.
Confirmation of earlier post .
” The first-half shortfall has exceeded Qatar’s original full-year forecast. Doha has said cuts to operating spending exclude salaries and capital projects, while European gas buyers face delivery cancellations extending into early November as the Iran war postpones revenue.
Qatar’s budget deficit more than doubled to 21.2bn riyals (€5bn) in the second quarter of 2026, the Ministry of Finance announced on Tuesday.
The deficit stood at 10.3bn riyals (€2.44bn) in the first quarter.
Total revenue reached about 25.6bn riyals (€6.06bn), while expenditure amounted to approximately 46.9bn riyals (€11.1bn). ”
https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/09/09/qatars-budget-deficit-more-than-doubles-to-5bn-in-second-quarter-amid-lng-disruption
This is terrible news for the economy of Qatar. How do they provide services for their people?
This is for Reante if he still scans the comments. If this isn’t confirmation of his idea that they want a National Socialism then i don’t know what is. For years i’ve wondered why they give the horrible people that take and take and never give, that have no consciousness of the harm they’re entitled harm causes. Pawns used to bring about a desired outcome. Well, i agree with him now. They’ve put these people on a pedestal to get our hate up. They give them free handouts while you barely get by to get your hate up. They’re doing this with the final dream of taking away all freedom because it was in “self defense”. I weep for the future.
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/socialists-and-anti-heroes
I ventured into this article. Apparently Musk is the guy who gives and gives, and the left wants to take away (or at last tax) his hard earned trillions. Perhaps it is a good thing that I left the West, the discourse has gotten so complicated I would not know what to say.
Musk was a darling of the “left” until about 2020. If you’ve lived in a US city in the last 10 years you’ve run into the people he’s talking about in the article. Before 2016 these people we’re fine. After not so much. But its not only that, the media became very antagonistic after 2016, along with movies, along with these people. I think this is being done on purpose. To anger those who just want to be left alone until they demand a national socialism. Read up on Germany in 20’s and see if you can find the similarities
Unfortunately, there are not enough physical goods and services to go around. This is different than the difference in pixels owned by various people. The pixel ownership is not worth much in the long run.
This promise by Trump is pretty much “Over the top.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-floats-5000-stimmy-checks-every-us-adult-citizen-if-gop-holds-congress
Trump Floats $5,000 “Stimmy” Checks For Every US Adult Citizen If GOP Holds Congress
During a speech Wednesday night at the GOP’s midterm convention in Dallas, Texas, President Trump proposed sending every adult American citizen a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress in November. . .
Quick math: A $5,000 payout to 270 million adults would cost the US government approximately $1.35 trillion. The proposal comes as US public debt surpassed $40 trillion for the first time in recent weeks. . .
Bloomberg strategist Mark Cudmore warned that a large fiscal injection could intensify existing market pressures, including weaker Treasuries, dollar depreciation, and demand for commodities and other real assets. . . The general reaction from markets is very muted precisely as everyone sees almost zero chance of this happening. . .
Vice President JD Vance said that these proposed post-election direct payments to Americans could be funded by revenue from Trump’s wide-ranging tariff program.
And the US 10-year Treasury yield is up another 8 bps this morning to 4.92%. By this time next week (assuming the Fed does not raise rates) it will be well north of 5%.
Sure, keep talking about $1.5 trillion “defense” budgets and $5,000 cash giveaways.
Sovereign debt crisis, incoming.
Maybe it is all part of “the plan”.
It sounds like a failing Roman Empire speech.
Sounds like buying votes.
” Vice President JD Vance said that these proposed post-election direct payments to Americans could be funded by revenue from Trump’s wide-ranging tariff program.”
What a lie . The tariffs are already cancelled by SCOTUS . Yes , DJT sneaked a few back under different rules but they are for a limited period . Anyway this payment will mean another $ 1.2 trillion to be printed . Yackity Yak .
Yes, I will vote for Trump if he pays ahead of time. Cash only.
Basically a trillion. Why not?
The commercial banks can not directly create money to buy treasuries. They can use deposits to buy treasuries. Those treasuries can then be used as collateral for leveraged loans from the Fed. That money can be used to buy more treasuries.
How do you think they float a new T of deficit spending every three months?
Treasuries were not designed to be sold . Ever. Why would you? They are designed to be collateral for loans from the Fed. If you need money and have treasuries you get a loan from the fed and the rate is lower than what the treasuries yield. The only treasury selling is supposed to be new issuance. When the treasuries mature you flip them. The banks aquire more and more collateral and more and more access to capital.
As long as there is infinite commodities and manufactured goods there are no problems.
The main problem with a T gift to the people almost equal medicare would be a T of disposable currency effect on inflation and dwindling supply. Currency debasement. You see Stimmy is stimmy. UBI is UBI. Buying votes is buying votes. See. They can create wealth at will. If they don’t it is because they are Tyrants. Once again Trump makes every possible example for his opponents. Eternal abundance is a matter of political whim. The reason why there is not abundance is mean old boomers. Trump always helps his so called opponents 10x more than they could ever help themselves as the mega nemesis. They love Trump even as they hate him. Really they love Trump and don’t hate him. How could you hate the mega nemesis and such progress?
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Not all barrels of oil are the same .SoH closure means the sour crude available has gone from 16.8 mbpd to 5.9 mbpd . ?othing will fill this gap .
https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/crude-oil/090926-not-all-barrels-are-equal-iran-war-creates-sour-crude-shortfall
We are now missing a disproportional part of the “sour” oil exports. Sour oil provides sulfur that we use in fertilizing our crops. The article says:
Not all barrels are created equal, as is illustrated in the Platts Periodic Table of Oil, which highlights 150 of the key crude streams in the global oil market.
When it comes to medium and heavy sour barrels, the Middle East is the primary source, with grades including Saudi Arabia’s Arab Medium and Arab Heavy, Iraq’s Basrah Heavy, and Kuwaiti, Omani and Iranian crudes forming the staple diet of many complex refineries configured precisely for these grades’ API gravities, sulfur levels and yields.
These are the very crudes hardest hit by a war that has struck at the heart of Middle East energy infrastructure.
A free post from Anas Alhaji on Mexico .
https://anasalhajjieoa.substack.com/p/public-no-paywall-when-a-chart-worth?r=8x05sd&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
This is a chart of Mexican crude oil exports, by year for older years, and by month for 2026.
The peak year was 2003, with 2006 close behind. The amount was a little of 2 million barrels per day. More recently, oil exports have been falling. The year 2026 is particularly bad, with oil exports falling to under 0.5 million bpd recently.
Thanks Ravi and Gail.
As you and other writers in this blog highlighted many times, the economic situation of modern societies is in trouble without D I E S E L.
The main sources of diesel are in fact those Oils with a medium API gravity: Arab Light (API 33), i.e. the Middle East; Urals (API 33), i.e. Russia; and Brent (API 38), i.e. the North Sea in Europe, though the wells there are running dry.
Essentially, in Europe we are left with Norwegian oil, but there is not enough to go round.
The UK has long since exhausted its own reserves and is running on fumes.
American oil, namely ‘tight oil’ (from shale deposits and extracted via fracking), has an API gravity of 43 or higher; it is too light and almost like alcohol (to draw an extreme comparison), yielding mainly petrol and naphtha.
So even the United States is in trouble, as can be seen from the current diesel prices there.
The two key sources of diesel supply (the Persian Gulf and Russia) are under pressure due to wars.
We’ve shot ourselves in the foot…
https://www.informationisbeautifulawards.com/showcase/3946-interactive-periodic-table-of-oil
$ 9.99 in California .— Gas Buddy .
https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2098044033176060051
What happens if it climbs further? Print another few billions to change displays at all gas stations across the country?
The heavy oil the US gets from Canada is pretty helpful for Diesel, as well. But we keep picking fights with Canada.
The consumerist party is a collection of humans tuned as engines for high output, i.e. high consumption. When the party ends, these engines need to be retuned for lower output, i.e. lower consumption.
I am not looking forward to the retuning there will be a lot of upset people who are ignorant of why the party is ending
Then they organize a party called war, with lots of real explosions and fireworks.
These folks are really mean.
That’s like expecting a racehorse to turn into a cart horse or a donkey. Not possible.
And a soft, modern, pampered urbanite cannot become a useful, sturdy peasant. Even builders have soft hands these days….
Breeding, inheritance, is everything.
We’ve seen this movie before, haven’t we?
Small wonder, sovereign borrowers are already pivoting to borrowing in yuan as it can now halve the cost of borrowing in dollars.
Kenya set the precedent by converting its dollar loans to yuan, directly reducing its debt-service burden. Kenya’s finance minister disclosed that the original USD loan interest rate exceeded 6%; after conversion to RMB, it dropped to approximately 3%.
Indonesia, Pakistan, Ethiopia, and Mozambique are now actively negotiating comparable re-denominations. The precedent is set. The maths is simple — 3 per cent versus 6-9 per cent. Why would the global south not pivot to Yuan?
(From a previous link of fitz https://fountainbridge.substack.com/p/tehran-holds-king-dollar-hostage)
I seem to recall borrowers in some countries in eastern (formerly northern) Europe who had taken out property loans in Swiss Francs to reduce their interest costs, suffered massive losses on the devaluation of their local currencies when their nations joined the Euro currency. And there was an earlier episode with Australian farmers who’d taken out “cheap” offshore currency loans found themselves unable to repay due to AUD devaluation.
Bessant better be careful what he wishes for. Since the recent intervention when the yen weakened to YPY163 the yen has strengthened to JPY153.6 against the USD. A large consideration in the yen carry trade has been the devaluation befefit with the borrowed yen reliably devaluing by over 15% per annum for the past two and a half years. Of course it could be a case of tickeling the market the reverse way as a mechanism to enourage buyers on the other side of the intended “big move” as was proposed here last week …
time will tell
One would need to analyze whether these are creditworthy borrowers, to look at their history and demographics, etc, to determine whether this benefits China.
The yen carry trade, mostly OTC, is notoriously opaque. No one can even measure accurately its size. The risk is not so much the creditworthiness of borrowers but that a strengthening yen could trigger a deleveraging avalanche, requiring the purchase of yen to repay loans and further reinforcing the strong yen trend.
First out, best served.
Huh? I am talking about Chinese RMB loans, which the article you cite discusses, not JPY.
Sorry. I was clarifying my point to the original post, which was the Africans being yet another instance of ignoring the risks of cross-currency borrowings. While I’m sure the Chinese govt will readily absorb the worst case should African borrowers not notice the strengthening trend of the CNY over the past two years, the disorderly unwind of yen carry trade would have very serious consequences for the global economy stability.
Now it’s clear the Kiev ceasefire was a temporary measure because Witkoff and Kushner were headed over after meeting in Moscow to probe Kiev’s appetite for a settlement on Russian terms. This makes sense and it’s not Putin being an idiot yet again, as I and others feared. In our defense, it hadn’t been announced that the Zio duo were headed to Kiev when the ceasefire news broke.
We are excused. Seeing a Chabad lovefest in the Kremlin is reasonable cause to become nauseous and not totally in control.
Pseudologica fantasica is supposedly rare. That’s not my experience. I am not qualified for a clinical diagnosis but this is extreme. The difference between a condition and a teller of tall tales is they believe it? Trump claims he was rescued from the towers on 9/11 by two firemen “when they heard it creaking”. Is this normalized now? Fantasy recounted as reality to bolster image/ego? On top of everything else how can any real trust exist with this type of behavior?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/08/honoring-911-heroes-trump-repeats-disputed-account-his-role-recovery/
Poor Trump he gets blamed for telling the truth.
No credible source or medical expert has diagnosed former President Joe Biden with pseudologia fantastica (pathological lying). However, the relationship between his public statements and his mental faculties has been a frequent subject of intense political and psychological debate.
The connection between these concepts stems from two distinct viewpoints:
1. Political Criticism and “Fabulism”
Critics, political opponents, and some media fact-checkers have frequently labeled Biden a “fabulist” due to a long history of exaggerating or fabricating personal anecdotes. Notable examples often cited include claims that he was arrested in South Africa during apartheid, driven an 18-wheeler, or had certain interactions during past historic events. While political opponents sometimes use clinical terms like “pathological liar” or pseudologia fantastica as rhetorical attacks, these are political characterizations rather than medical diagnoses.
2. Clinical Speculation: Confabulation vs. Pseudologia Fantastica
Mental health experts distinguish between the intentional fabrication of stories (pseudologia fantastica) and confabulation:
Pseudologia Fantastica: Involves a conscious, habitual compulsion to tell elaborate, false stories, often to project a grander self-image.
Confabulation: A neurological phenomenon where a person genuinely believes false memories that their brain has generated to fill in gaps caused by memory loss or cognitive decline.
Based on the above, the Don could well be the greatest, most incredible exponent of Pseudologia Fantastica ever.
With Trump in office, they get to:
1/ Try out all sorts of formerly unthinkable policies, in S America, the Middle East, Europe, etc.
2/ Blame him for being the ‘Mad Emperor’ if they go wrong, or cause economic distress to Americans.
3/ Distract people from Peak Everything reality. Most important.
In a cynical way, it’s rather perfect, and I admire them – in a perverse way – for contriving to bring about the Trump administration.
Wouldnt this rather frequent increase in doubling period of tanker destruction by all parties damper enthusiasm for insurance issuers somewhat in the future? All excluded under war clause I suppose. At the current doubling period of targeting I make al Iran tankers in gulf region destroyed in far less than a week. There’s only 50. Ukraine just destroyed over 100 in a couple days.
Assuming that the insurers pay attention to what is going on in the world, a person would think that rates would either be skyrocketing, or the insurance would be completely unavailable.
Bloomberg claimed on Monday that that the high price for the newest Iphone doesn’t matter because most people don’t pay the full price. They used people taking out loans, or financing, as an example of how Iphone customers avoid paying full price. I thought that borrowing with interest always increased the total cost to a point it surpasses the full price. Maybe they meant up full up-front cost instead of full cost.
Usually, in the past, Apple phones were offered with monthly payments totaling the amount quoted. Thus, the interest rate was zero on the basic purchase plan.
Team Greta doesn’t like oil tankers. Matching contribution via other franchise is even sweeter. Many are contributing. Ukraine over a hundred just last month! Sure they were on the smallish side but still certainly that gets a team Greta plaque?
No oil eradication. Oh yes team Greta has plans for it. Just not for unwashed masses. Whose idea was that? Seriously? Tanker eradication and unaffordability are ideal to save the world!
I guess the world is saved. None of those 100 ships were bulk cargo ships. Everyone will get their grains. also amazing feat to send tankers through the sea of azov, which IIRC is nowhere deeper than 7 meters.
All that engineering materials and labor for the Azov tankers to provide the world with oil. Gone in three days.
What will the gulf tanker count be in a week?
Oh well we will just build more. All we need is affordable and abundant oil.
Seppeku.
The Gulf of Azov is the northern extension of the Black Sea, extending into Russia. I can believe that it might be nowhere deeper than 7 meters. Thus, the boats (including tankers) in the Gulf of Azov need to be relatively small. No big oil tankers.
No matter what political changes occur in Germany the destruction of Nordstream and the shadow tanker fleet mean there will never be a return to what existed before. These were direct energy inputs into the EU largest and most sophisticated industrial complex. A industrial complex sophisticated enough to still offer competition to China a impressive feat. What was not a shadow fleet then but the mechanism to deliver oil to the refinery’s in Germany specifically designed to use the abundant and affordable Russian oil that met the very stringent EU standards is largely destroyed. Gone. BASF. Gone. Destruction of the shadow fleet and denial of safe passage meant the very same oil that the refinery’s were engineered for couldn’t get offloaded to big tankers and take a trip around the world and back.
We are witnessing reduction and cessation of the energy inputs of industrial civilization.
Frankly I’m not surprised at what is occuring in the gulf even consoled as unexplained things start to become consistent. Of course terrified but consoled . If we didn’t have the gulf events we would be asked to believe the EU and its leaders are mad. I find that hard to believe. Just as I find it hard to believe that no one understands what the effects of the events in the gulf will be and mostly everyone is not concerned.
The infrastructures being destroyed were some 30 years in their creation requiring significant financial engineering and materials input. The thing that primarily allowed their creation however was affordable and abundant energy. That doesn’t exist in the present like then even if the infrastructure that allows its extraction transport and refinement wasn’t being destroyed. This is far too consistent and systematic to be a random event but at least we are not asked to believe everyone in Europes IQ dropped below 100 simultaneously. Asked to believe that BASF employees and refinery workers now without jobs had no interest in how Nordstream ceased to exist. Basically the same thing is happening here in the USA. Shitting down IC by neo liberalism in Europe. Shutting down IC in the USA by MAGA. Behavioral consistency always reveals truth. Obviously there is alliance here despite whatever mistruths emit from anyone’s mouth. Memes and fantasy circus from the mouth truth demonstrated in significant action. Insignificant action does not generally reveal truth.
In other words ‘Judge them by deeds, not words’.
Deliberate destruction of the most advanced and efficient industrial economy in Europe, and forcing the world to adjust to lower energy and commodities, fertilizer inputs.
It ain’t no accident…..
MG, look at what machines do for us….
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3KWiy6wvz28
What’s not to like?
PS My Meta smart glasses are recording you
“Massive Machines you have to see to believe.”
Another issue hampering the efforts of the US Air Force:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nOcRsjJaSiQ
Aerial refueling tankers make American airpower possible. But the Air Force’s KC-135s are more than 60 years old, and their replacement, the Boeing KC-46 Pegasus, has been plagued by design defects, delayed upgrades, spare-parts shortages, maintenance problems, and restricted technical data.
Using a new Government Accountability Office report and interviews with retired Gen. Mike Minihan and former Air Force maintainer Anne Phillips, we examine how the KC-46 became a “Franken-tanker,” why relatively new aircraft are already being cannibalized for parts, and what it means for the aging tanker fleet.
An example from Germany of why subsidies don’t work for the long run.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/green-steel-arcelormittal-finally-pulls-plug
Green Steel: ArcelorMittal Finally Pulls The Plug
In the end, economic reality prevails. Green steel has no future in Germany, regardless of how much funding may continue to flow through the channels of the green subsidy machine: At Germany’s overregulated, energy-policy-driven and increasingly sidelined industrial location, industrial production is becoming less and less profitable.
That ArcelorMittal, one of the green economy’s poster boys, threw in the towel at the end of the week and announced that it would end steel production at its Duisburg site is the latest painful blow to the proponents of the green transformation ideology. . . .
The news carries a double weight: That green steel — meaning steel produced through a production route in which hydrogen is used instead of carbon as the reducing agent — would not be able to compete in the face of significantly lower production costs at other locations is hardly surprising. But the fact that, ultimately, even conventional steel production is gradually having to retreat from Germany is tragic — a resounding no from business to the ideologically contaminated energy and location policies of the slowly crumbling industrial heart of Europe. . .
The cost gap is enormous: Depending on the calculation and production conditions, green steel increases production costs by around $100 to $500 per ton. For the European steel industry, the conversion to low-carbon production methods is estimated to entail additional costs of 35 to 100 percent per ton. This simply cannot work. . .
Brussels and Berlin are thus providing an impressive demonstration of the internal contradictions and high costs of a centrally planned state economy. Everyone can now see what happens when the state interferes with price formation and dictates technology and the actions of individual companies: It becomes expensive for the taxpayer. Costs do not simply disappear; they are merely redistributed and concealed through subsidies. When the state repeatedly intervenes in the economy, scarce resources no longer flow to where competition would generate the greatest benefit. Instead, they flow into the pockets of those whose ingenuity lies in hunting for grants and subsidies. This is how the final chapter of the market economy begins.
Another small piece of the puzzle of what is going on in the Middle East:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irgc-says-smart-submarine-operated-us-seized-hormuz-releases-images
IRGC Says ‘Smart Submarine’ Operated By US Seized In Hormuz, Releases Images
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy announced Tuesday it had captured an unmanned US submersible at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz, a claim which corresponding photographs appear to back.
The US side has yet to confirm the capture of the advanced naval drone, but some reports suggest it was “lost” after failing to operate properly. The IRGC statement called it a “complex intelligence and operational action.”. .
The sea drone may have been operating as part of a US mission to de-mine the Strait of Hormuz. It is capable of mapping the ocean floor, as well as rapidly locating floating mines and other water hazards.
There have been recent widespread reports that elite Navy Seals have been engaged in a four-month mission to remove mines set in place by Iranian forces as part of its effort to close the Strait of Hormuz and hold global energy markets hostages to use as leverage against Washington.
Basically the war is getting stagnant and the status quo will be maintained, and the people who would suffer are those the people in the first world are unlikely to care too much about.
To advance civilization a winner take all , the elites immune from almost all consequences world is needed and the world is going for that direction.
The best AI tools will be owned by those who can pay, who will be able to do basically whatever they feel like, and the rest just having no recourse against them.
And that means fewer smarter people are needed, meaning no one is going to waste time looking at someone whose resume says graduated from State university of Mountains or some other states not well known for their wealth.
A lot of universities were built in USA after the GI bill, to keep the returning soldiers out of the job markets for a few years. As always, it seemed a good idea at that time, but now it has created millions of useless diplomas.
All the outputs will be concentrated by the elites, who will hopefully weed out the strivers who do not deliver.
The rest? Penury which the dwellers of tenements around 1900 would not have envied. They will be housed in soviet style compounds devoid of all amenities except nonstop online entertainment, drinking water laced with contraceptives so they would live their lives out of sight of people who do matter and wither there.
All of these we would have had if we did not have the Three Greatest Criminals of western history, Gavrilo “Gabby” Princip, Joseph “Joe” Gallienni and Charles “Chucky” Fitzclarence, by year 1950 and without 7 billion Third Worlders.
Qatar’s oil and gas revenues plummeted to just 874 million Qatari riyals ($240 million) in the second quarter of 2026, down from 34 billion riyals a year earlier. FUBAR
How can Qatar support all of its programs for its people, with as little oil and gas revenue as it currently is receiving? It seems like major cutbacks are likely.
sell treasuries.
Rising interest rates hurt banks. They tend to hold long debt, including Treasuries. Pension plans are also hurt by rising interest rates.
They have no choice really.
Treasury Secretary Dares Traders to Short Yen and Then Drops This Chilling Line: “I Am the House Now”
Scott Bessent Just Triggered the Biggest GameStop Moment Ever. The Treasury Boss Just Lit the Fuse on a Trillion-Dollar Yen Squeeze.
Scott Bessent just dropped a bombshell: He claims, “Secret, asymmetric intel on Japan’s next policy move and is openly taunting anyone betting against the yen.”
When the guy running America’s finances says “I am the house now,” it means the game is rigged and retail traders, hedge funds, and crypto degens are the suckers at the table.
The yen carry trade… the massive, leveraged bet that has pumped stocks, Bitcoin, and risk assets for years is hanging by a thread.
If Bessent’s “insight” is real and Japan suddenly tightens or intervenes, the unwind could be violent: exploding USD/JPY volatility, forced liquidations, a rush for dollars, and cascading losses across equities and crypto.
One wrong move and trillions in cheap yen-funded positions get crushed.
This isn’t just forex drama. It’s a warning shot that Washington thinks it has the upper hand in the U.S.-Japan monetary chess game.
Traders who fade the yen now risk getting steamrolled by policy they can’t see coming.
The house always wins and Bessent just told you he’s dealing the cards.
https://x.com/SternDrewCrypto/status/2097640059969368304
How long can this continue? Doesn’t the combined system at one point fail?
Yes it’s very strange. I think the last element is fear when fear sets in that is when the panic selling starts. Right now they are trying to give the illusion of control
Today, we hear that interest rates are at a new recent high. Today, the WSJ is reporting:
Stock Market Today: 10-Year Yield Jumps as Treasury’s Buyback Plan Disappoints Investors
Plan is smaller than some expected; yield near 4.85% is highest since 2023
” All that big dick swagger about “I am the house,” only to drop a buyback schedule that literally just mirrors mid curve street consensus? lol absolute clown show.”
https://x.com/CRUDEOIL231/status/2097712503614738450
It’s here. It was always here.
The fed can patch this by lowering rates of and ignoring or using creativity to describe inflation. They will.
The CNBC debate. Which is more worthless currency or bonds? It’s bad if bonds become worthless. Currency not so much.
I think collapse type problems will occur before 8 percent on both Eastern and Western fronts. The fed will have to let rates rise prior to 8 percent inflation. When they do problems will arise prior to a 8 percent ten year.
All quiet on the does not exist front.
When you decide to make the primary commodity unafordable all the the non financial things also become unafordable. The financial things lose ability to acquire the non financial things. This is described as inflation and is considered normal. Normality bias is quite correct here.
It was inevitable but they kicked it off with the decision to make the primary commodity unafordable. After that it’s like trying to hold a weather balloon underwater whether eastern or Western fronts.
“respect my atoritee” bad sign
Israeli ministers are engaging in ‘tit for tat’ against the UK over its sanctions on illegal West Bank settlements.
‘Sanction us, and we will come after the Falklands.’
Sadly that is the level of it.
The rhetoric has been going on for some weeks, and it may explain Trump’s recent attacks on British sovereignty over the Falklands such is the influence in Washington of the Zionist lobby.
It is not that surprising seeing as Trump started an illegal, unnecessary and unprovoked war against Iran, on behalf of Israel, that is trashing his own poll ratings in the run-up to the midterms.
Whatever they have on Trump and his administration, he is willing to trash his own presidency for them.
https://www.trtworld.com/article/f5d2743c31e0
Why is Israel rallying behind Argentina in disputing Britain’s claims over Falkland Islands?
Far-right politicians are competing for electoral support from voters who want to shift the international focus away from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Far-right Israeli ministers are using the Falkland Islands dispute to hit back at the UK by framing the South Atlantic archipelago as “occupied Argentine territory”.
The latest barrage of criticism follows expected restrictions by the British government on goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank.
Israel’s National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir posted on X in Spanish that it was time for Israel to “publicly recognise that the Malvinas Islands (otherwise known as Falkland Islands) are Argentine territory under occupation, which the British violently steal from the Argentine people”.
He accused Britain of oil drilling that “steals money from the Argentine people” and called on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to recognise Argentine sovereignty and impose sanctions “as long as the occupation continues”.
Israel’s Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also demanded the British ambassador’s expulsion, declaring the British Mandate over “the Land of Israel is over”.
The sharply critical remarks by top ministers further weaken Tel Aviv’s already deteriorating relationship with London as far-right politicians look for maximum domestic political mileage in the run-up to the general election next month.
Lots of guys interested in the Falklands, and they are all zionists.
A short history of British Crown illegal occupation of Ireland, Malvinas, and attempts to force Jews of Israel into ghetto gulags as did the Pope for three Centuries, comparable to the British rape of India.
The Tudor conquest-imperialism, especially the Nine Years’ War (1594–1603): probably tens of thousands of Irish soldiers and civilians died. Much larger numbers died from famine and disease caused by the war. The figures are too uncertain to identify a Catholic total. Confederate and Cromwellian wars (1641–1653): perhaps 200,000 or more people in Ireland died overall, including combatants, civilians, famine victims, and those killed in massacres. Most Irish Catholic military resistance occurred in this period, but the Catholic deaths cannot be separated confidently from the total. The 1798 rebellion: estimates commonly place total deaths—rebels, government forces, and civilians—at roughly 10,000–30,000, with most rebel and civilian victims Catholic or Catholic-background, though again the classification is not precise. The War of Independence (1919–1921): roughly 500–700 IRA volunteers were killed, alongside hundreds of civilians and members of the Crown forces. Most IRA volunteers came from the Catholic nationalist population, but this was a struggle for Irish independence rather than a direct attempt to prevent Northern Ireland’s creation.
No single moment when the Irish people unanimously accepted the Protestant illegal occupation of Northern Ireland. The Anglo-Irish Treaty established the Irish Free State and allowed Northern Ireland to opt out. The Dáil narrowly ratified the Treaty, effectively accepting that partition would continue temporarily. This helped trigger the Irish Civil War, because anti-Treaty republicans rejected the settlement. 1937: Ireland’s new constitution still claimed sovereignty over the whole island, so partition remained officially disputed. 1937: Ireland’s new constitution still claimed sovereignty over the whole island, so partition remained officially disputed.
Ireland – a large inhabited country subjected to conquest, colonization, and eventually partition. The Falklands/Malvinas a territorial sovereignty dispute between Argentina and the United Kingdom. Yet London condemns post Oct7th 2023 Israeli settlements as criminal simply because London, post the 1939 White Paper, declares East Jerusalem and Samaria as illegal settlements! England and its Allied alliance condemns Israel of illegally occupying Samaria which it styles as “West Bank” – only Britain and Pakistan (a Two State solution creation) approved of Jordan’s illegal annexation of Jordan’s annexed “West Bank” in 1950.
Argentina calls the “Malvinas” a colonial possession. It argues that Britain displaced an Argentine presence in 1833 and replaced it with a settler population, making the dispute closer to a colonial or settlement question which Britain denies. A genuine political and moral inconsistency argument: Argentina’s counterargument British hypocrisy disguises the fact that Britain itself established and preserved a settler population after removing Argentine officials in 1833. Britain “approved” the forced mass population transfer of Jews in Iraq in 1941, its White Paper sought to impose Jewish ghetto settlement of post ’67 Israeli lands. Its ’39 White Paper UN 2334 attempt to establish where Jewish minority populations can live within an Arab majority dominated country.
The Plantations (particularly in Ulster), explicit attempts to alter the demographics and religion of the country to ensure political control. The 17th-century Plantation of Ulster served as a foundational blueprint for British imperial strategies, combining state-directed land confiscation, demographic engineering, and social segregation – Apartheid. It displaced and impoverished the despise lower class populations of the land, its feudalism forced them into tenant labor under strict religious and legal restrictions. English and Scottish Protestants granted land conditionally on building fortified “bawns” and excluding native Irish. Likewise French Algeria (1830–1962) Code de l’Indigénat – wholesale confiscation of communal (habous) lands. Subjugated under a separate legal system without full civil rights unless they renounced Islamic personal status. European settlers granted confiscated fertile lands along the Mediterranean coast to secure French annexations.
South Africa (17-20th C.) introduced the Dutch East India Company land grants, followed by the Natives Land Act (1913). Restricted the natives to designated reserves (later Bantustans), creating a regulated labor supply for settler farms and mines. The Afrikaner (Boer) and British settlers occupied interior agricultural lands, enforcing strict racial hierarchy and labor control. The Crown or colonial government declared indigenous land “vacant” or “forfeited” through legal pretexts—such as rebellion, non-cultivation, or refusal of loyalty oaths—and reallocated it to loyal subjects. Replacing or diluting native populations with loyal settler communities served to establish borderlands, prevent uprisings, and secure territorial claims without relying solely on standing armies.
Settler-colonial regimes consistently created dual legal structures: one set of rights for the settler population to encourage immigration, and restrictive codes for the indigenous population to limit political power and land ownership. British & French strategic ‘Great Power’ interests displaced and impoverished the despise lower class populations of the land, its feudalism forced them into tenant labor under strict religious and legal restrictions. English and Scottish Protestants granted land conditionally on building fortified “bawns” and excluding native Irish. Likewise French Algeria (1830–1962) Code de l’Indigénat and wholesale confiscation of communal (habous) lands. Subjugated under a separate legal system without full civil rights unless they renounced Islamic personal status. European settlers granted confiscated fertile lands along the Mediterranean coast to secure French annexations.
The UN decolonization framework usually prioritizes territorial integrity over the self-determination of settler populations (as seen in Western Sahara) – the UK prioritizes prioritizes the self-determination of the settlers in its “West Bank” Malvinas! And the UN has totally ignored this blatant contradiction. Hence the slander “illegal occupation” so popular in MSM propaganda organs strictly applied to enemies of the British/French narratives of restoring their ‘great power’ destroyed reputations – rather than obey any consistent legal standard.
Viewed form the Confederate perspective Agricultural based rural population economies vs. Industrial city based population economies defines the States’ Rights Israel (Commerce Clause/10th Amendment) better than the emotion packed slavery issue. Based upon the fact that after Russia’s defeat in the Crimean War the Czar freed the serfs and committed Russia to play catch-up and industrialize its economy. This sums up the Stalin policies as well as post Mao Chinese modern communism.
Confederate leaders such as John C. Calhoun often emphasized that slavery permitted in the Bible. Prior to the Industrial revolution all societies operated on an Agricultural acquisition of wealth, and therefore required slavery. The American revolution of 1776 preceded the Industrial revolution! Britain the first industrial city based economy consequently the first country to outlaw slavery, despite the established serf\lord relationship in its colonies.
The UN prioritizes the self-determination of the 3,000+ British-descended settlers over Argentina’s claim of territorial integrity. The UN prioritizes the territorial integrity of the “Palestinian” claim over the self-determination of the Israeli settler population of over 700,000 Israelis, even though these “Manifest Destiny” settlers – a demographic reality similar to the Falkland Islanders! UN 2334 – supported by Obama – simply a continuation of the 1939 White Paper Appeasement policy which resulted in the slaughter of some 80 million people across the Planet! The restricted application of Geneva Convention IV – politically motivated – the UK and its 2nd class allies consistently attempt to defame Israel while ignoring similar actions of Russia in Crimea, China in Tebet/Zinjiang, and the UK abominations repeated over and again similar to the devastation of the American Indian genocide.
UN Resolution 1514 and subsequent resolutions, prioritizes the self-determination of colonized peoples over the rights of settler populations. British/Jordan\ “Falklands case” a major exception, where the settler population’s right to self-determination — explicitly protected. The UN has consistently rejected the self-determination of the Moroccan settlers in Western Sahara, prioritizing the Sahrawi people’s right to self-determination. This – the standard that should, in theory, apply to Samaria and East Jerusalem. The UN treats the “Jordan” West Bank as “occupied territory” with all Israeli settlements unilaterally declared illegal. Despite the demographic reality of Israeli ‘Manifest Destiny’. The UN likewise supports and defends the British\Jordan “Falklands” precedent – where British settlers’ self-determination – protected. The UK’s history of settler colonialism in Ireland and the Falklands, combined with its current support for the “illegal occupation” narrative in the West Bank, creates a significant power politics propaganda LIE, that undermines the credibility of the international legal framework.
It seems like we keep reaching a situation in which an economy that has more energy and complexity is faced with rising population. It needs more land to feed its rising population well.
Such an organization seeks out another area where the people are not faring as well. Perhaps, if they can restrain/restrict them further, they can make use of the land available. Putting the “poorer” population in a restricted area makes the plan work better.
Now, we have all kinds of narratives about how awful this practice is/was. The underlying issue is always too much population for resources. Areas that are stressed for resources (very cold areas, for example, or very dry areas) are particularly at risk for such issues.
What you describe seems to me: what Hitler wrote while sitting in a private prison? He called it “living-space”.
Thanks for that historical reminder moshe. I was in a train and thinking about the European (mostly EU but not only) constant provoking of Russia, see several declarations of WAR on RUSSIA before 2030, etc. etc., this helped to fix some thoughts.
Multiple Wars fought and won/lost. All Arab states farted, they categorically rejected UN 181. Revisionist history following the Nakba Allah defeat of their dead God changes nothing :)))
Many thanks for your background Moshe.
This in my view demonstrates that UK is wrong in its positions, but also that Israel is wrong in its position and also, of course, that the Vatican was wrong.
In my view (and this represents my personal view of course), this also shows that the Bible should not be read literally, but understood on metaphoric meaning and in the historical and not repeatable context.
I listened to many Rabbi saying things out of the ordinary and heard people of that community expressing points out of the mainstream, so I’m confident that a reasonable approach could be found.
Outside of the context of the Falklands issue, in my view, the real big issue for people of one community around the world – at the moment – it is that Israel is making this community being hated all over the world.
Therefore right or wrong – and looking to this issue like an alien outside of this planet – something must change in Israel behavior…
All the best.
T’shuva not a socialist vision. Truth understood as “path”. The destiny “path” of an individual or a nation not determined nor shaped by the destiny “path” walk of of foreign people and/or nations. Europe has a long history of injustice and abominations so post Shoah – especially British appeasement of Arabs ie White Paper — London MUST remove the “BEAM” out of its own racist evil eyes before it jabba jabbas concerning the speck in the eye of Israel.
The Saudi Turk Pak “nato” almost immediately proven – a bluff. Post the Oct 7th Abomination War, shattered the balance of power in the Middle East, the chaos “dust” has yet to settle. Both London and Paris hope to restore their fallen star ‘great power’ status which collapsed in 1956. The pre-Oct7th “Gazan ‘refugee status'” mirrors the Algeria Morocco refugee crisis.
Turkey if admitted to the European Union, the Middle Eastern balance of power would probably shift toward a stronger Turkey–EU strategic axis. This and only this would give London’s attack on “Israeli Settlements” — teeth. Based upon the current realities of the current US-Israeli partnership to prevent the Mullahs from achieving a nuke. Impossible for the EU to pass a policy comparable to the British Chamberlain-like ’39 Appeasement Policy which first destroyed the Czech Republic and then sealed the mass murder of European Jewry, on par with the Allied refusal to bomb the rail lines that transported Jews to their deaths. That White Paper serves as the foundation of racist “Jewish Problem” which restricted Jews where they could live or what they could trade in business no different from the policies of the medieval guilds.
As the church made Jewish ownership of land illegal – lest Jews acquire Xtians as slaves; so too Chamberlain decreed Arab consent to Jewish immigration and restricted land purchases – not limited to post ’67 captured Israeli territories. The history of European “Christ Killer” “Jewish Problem” racism defines the whole of European and Arab history starting with (for Arabs) Muhammad’s “Luther” Banu Qurayza slaughter of the Jews in Medina to Iraq’s 1941 exponentially worse Kristallnacht . Granted that Xtian anti-Talmud morphed into modern Dreyfus Affair racial antisemitism which aroused Herzl’s Political Zionism; but mass population forced Jewish transfers from State to State, Crusader slaughter of almost all Jewish refugees across the German kingdoms, colonial restrictions etc clearly aroused an equally violent Arab nationalist and Islamist evil eye directed at Jewish dhimmi refugee populations within Spain – prior to the Xtain expulsion of Muslim rule and thereafter the forced population transfer of Jews/Inquisition as authoritarian church-state persecutions which the Nazis perfected.
[[[Never again collective guilt, never again disenfranchisement—and never a political order in which human dignity depends on ethnicity, religion, or birthplace.]]] This distortion of the post Shoah Israeli oath Never Again – totally corrupt and false. Just as the vertical court of Par’o compares to the vile British vertical corrupt and paid/bribed judges who justified impressment of American sailors stolen from American ships on the High Seas (International Waters) so too the post Shoah Never Again sworn oath has nothing to do with Goyim dignity dependent upon ethnicity, religion or birthplace but everything to do with Jews rejection of bribed by their governments Goyim “Star Courts” to ever again rule upon their insane racism – “Jewish Problem” post Shoah Israeli Independence.
A large number of American casualties are reported at Jordanian bases last night. The White House and American media implement an official ‘fog of war policy’ that would hide that.
https://x.com/HormuzLetter
BREAKING: A large number of injured US soldiers are being flown to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, some with life-threatening injuries, following tonight’s Iranian ballistic missile strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan, per a Jordanian source to Al Arabiya.
A US official tells Reuters minutes ago that all American troops in Jordan are “accounted for,” which is highly unusual wording and does not mean “no casualties,” as it is simply a headcount of every listed soldier. At least 4 of the missiles at Muwaffaq directly impacted, with no interceptors even fired at them.
BREAKING: New footage shows 4 medium-range Iranian ballistic missiles making direct impacts on US military infrastructure at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, with zero interception attempts on any of the four.
Earlier tonight, dozens of PAC-3 rounds were fired over the same base at the first missiles of the wave. By last week’s count, two or three more nights like this emptied the Jordan magazines without a restock. This was the third night, and these four came in with nothing fired at them.
Also carried by the Times of India. https://www.youtube.com/TimesofIndia/videos
I agree that we can’t expect the US government to tell us about how well Iran is doing in its attempts to harm our soldiers and bases.
“Energy and output move one for one. I plotted energy from the IEA against gross world product from the World Bank in Ravel©. They sit on the same line. A 4% rise in one is a 4% rise in the other. COVID proved it in reverse. Mainstream models treat energy as about 4% of GDP, so a 10% energy shock becomes a 0.4% story. That is not the real world. A 10% fall in energy availability implies a 10% fall in gross world product. You cannot put more workers in the petrol tank. !?
https://x.com/ProfSteveKeen/status/2096648539971477867?s=20
Quite a few of us have been saying something very similar for a very long time. We need growing energy to produce growing GDP.
Firstly, the system consists only of humans; then simple tools are added. Later, machines are added. Finally, the system turns into a meat grinder that grinds up humans.
Looks like the world is not going to run out of dog food! That is good. Man’s best friend and whatnot (although when I was a graduate student my superiors were telling me that the graduate student is in fact man’s best friend).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XsXaz28HrM
Mario Nawfal interviews Malcomb Nance about the current attack by Iran. US is now trying to sink Iran’s oil tankers. Iran is now making a very significant attack, with missiles coming from all over Iran.
https://xcancel.com/hormuzletter
Good news. XCancel has returned.
From 9 hours ago:
“A large number of injured US soldiers are being flown to Ramstein Air Base in Germany, some with life-threatening injuries, following tonight’s Iranian ballistic missile strikes on the Muwaffaq Salti and Prince Hassan air bases in Jordan, per a Jordanian source to Al Arabiy.”
From 8 hours ago:
“Iran’s IRGC announces it carried out the single largest attack in the Strait of Hormuz of the war, striking 10 vessels in retaliation for tonight’s US strikes on 5 Iranian oil tankers.
The IRGC says it struck 8 oil tankers attempting to pass through the Strait and the two US destroyers it named earlier tonight, “inflicting significant damage.”
The US struck 3 tankers on Sept. 5 and Iran responded with 6, the US struck 5 tonight and Iran responded with 10. Two for one is now the pattern.”
From 3 hours ago:
“BREAKING: Iran has just struck an oil tanker with a drone off the coast of Dubai, the first strike on a tanker off Dubai since March 30, per Martin Kelly of EOS Risk Group.
Meanwhile, Brent crude oil has officially crossed $100 a barrel for the first time since July.”
“Pentagon refused payout for soldiers who died in Iran conflict ‘because it isn’t a war.’ (…)
JD Vance offers support after widow expresses frustration in viral online post. (…)
The families of US soldiers who have died in the US-Israeli war against Iran are battling to ensure they receive appropriate pay and benefits for their loved ones.”
Telegraph, 6 Sept.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/09/06/pentagon-refused-payout-soldiers-died-in-iran-war/
Haven’t followed this story, haven’t digged into the details but it looks like even the Torygraph (as it is called sometimes) are getting upset with the blatant: We don’t honor our soldiers, don’t care about ordinary US citizens, etc. etc.
We hide from what has gone wrong!
Kevin Walmsley talk about self-driving huge electric mining trucks. It is difficult to believe that all he says is true, but it may be.
This guy is like the Electric Viking. I mean, I guess I wish that some of the things they believe are true. But, they arnt.
Well, these YT pundits follow the newest development d/d and y/y for the industry via PR messaging, so there is always some more realistic angle to things after-while to reconcile w. reality though.
In terms of these mining site e_trucks, well it make sense, as they drive slowly, so the low-speed hi-torque e-power application makes more sense for this platform, weight of batts is almost ~no concern there. Also they can charge up through out the day opportunistically ( not only off-shift hrs )..
__
PS what do you don’t like about E-Viking? I guess he is able to self-correct as new info/context comes in, he has done it couple of times already publicly, say in the recent episode on legacy lithium vs sodium vs solid state ( and vs. aluminum -ion ) battery tech and their performance – price – scale_up relationships..
PS2 it’s reality: batts ( legacy-massproduced today ) dropped so much in price vs performance, you can get for ~1/2 half of avg. monthly salary a basic home batt system ( ~15-20kWh) lasting you two decades ( guaranteed ).. IF that’s not good enough for today’s spoiled peoplez of the world, I won’t comment further this point then.. ( yes ideally you perhaps would need 2-3x such units for colder climate and running more things around house/garden/forest/.. )
We can’t make intermittent electricity stable enough, and in large enough quantity, to possibly operate big mining trucks. And making these trucks fully self-driving at the same time seems over the top. Someone needs to set up the route these trucks take. It seems like there is a lot that could go wrong. A very huge amount of complexity is indicated, but it is not clear that such complexity could really operate in the real world.
5 + 3= 8
US destroyed five more Iranian tankers.
Iran tried to hit them again with a mach 12 potshot.
This will teach Ansarallah to knock off all the shenanigans and not even think about Yanbu. That’s obviously the intent because Trump just tweeted gas will be $2 soon.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-strikes-iranian-tankers-attempted-missile-attacks-navy-warship-rcna596699
U.S. strikes five Iranian tankers after attempted attacks on Navy warship, CENTCOM says
They’re the latest tit-for-tat strikes as Washington and Tehran lurch back toward fighting during more than six months of war.
Is this how they are going to do the reset?
https://youtu.be/NZpobX6MQVA?is=FDOjDqE-6JBSQO0v
Andrei Jikh talking about the fact that everyone know knows that AI can go rouge, and do all kinds of things it should not– for example, delete data or write articles that are not true.
Government officials like to take crisis situations and make them work in the direction that they want them to happen. In theory, they could be used as an excuse to cancel elections, if person wanted to remain in power. They could also be used as an excuse to start a government financial system to replace banks.
“AI can go rouge” ???
I think you meant “rogue”. Never try to type while applying your blusher, Gail. 😉
If you’re gonna go rouge, never go full Moulin Rouge!
You could do yourself an injury.
Thanks! Spell check converts whatever I type into what it would like. I presumably had a wrong spelling that it fixed for me.
Spellcheck performed by a professional technical writer once change “triaxial” into “tortilla”….go figure
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UzE9i–IFts
The Global Fuel Shortage Just Got Much Worse (12:55)
46,414 views Sep 7, 2026
One fuel shortage always leads to another as refiners ramp production of diesel for profit, shipping fuel is now in trouble.
Bunker fuel for ships, especially in Singapore, seems to be a problem. That is the part of the world that is especially short of heavy refined products.
This goes along with the thoughts we heard from Pravin Sawhney earlier. Iran wants the US out before the US elections. (Also, before the low point in funds that Iran gets for selling its oil.) Because of this, Iran will work on taking out US ships with its ballistic missiles.
WSJ is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-launched-undisclosed-second-wave-of-attacks-on-u-s-navy-ships-560f31a1
Iran Launched Undisclosed Second Wave of Attacks on U.S. Navy Ships
The second strike in three days missed its targets, as concerns grow that Tehran’s missiles are becoming more sophisticated
Iran launched an attack against U.S. Navy ships on Monday that the U.S. military has yet to acknowledge, according to U.S. officials, after firing ballistic missiles at an aircraft carrier and a guided-missile destroyer over the weekend. . .
Iran unveiled a medium-range ballistic missile known as the Qassem Bassir with the seeker technology last year, according to John Caves, senior research associate at the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control. Other Iranian missiles, like the Khalij Fars, also have the technology, he said.
U.S. officials hope that the blockade and crushing sanctions will bring the Iranian regime to its knees, but so far, the regime has refused to back down and is stepping up threats against U.S. Navy vessels. The U.S. has 19 warships supporting operations in the Middle East, according to a Navy official.
The UK air system seems to be on tilt. 600 flights canceled just today. They say it is a computer system problem, which, they say, has now been found. Or it could b a deficit of kerosene.
A low-flying Spitfire has been merrily buzzing about here today, so British air defences are still top-notch!
I prefer our latest batch of stealth aircraft which are not only invisible to RADAR, but also to the naked eye!
It could be a cumps syruppy. Or asymmetric warfare by the Russians.
Significant events in Yemen. Ansarallah attacking Saudi infrastructure again with what appears to be greater damage than before. Multiple locations. There also is widespread attacks on the Saudi proxy militias in Yemen. Lots of combat occuring. They appear to have objectives not just symbolic or messaging motives.
Will the Ukraine proxy model hold? As long as Iran does not directly attack Saudi it’s not a cobelligerent?
What about the much discussed “Mecca NATO” fresh ink? Attack on one is a attack on all. Should not the Saudi infrastructure attacks trigger “article 5”.
Or just payback for the destroyed tankers? BAU.
https://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/2097299205324738860
Old video above. Fires from recent attacks.
https://x.com/Gazawins12
Wikipedia says (with a large AI disclaimer–not sure this is really true)
The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, formally the Mecca Defence Alliance,[1][2] is a defence pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey signed into force on 7 August 2026.[3][4] It builds upon the earlier Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement signed between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia on 17 September 2025 to include Turkey.[5][6][7] The pact’s ratification was officially announced amidst the 2026 Iran war.[4]
The Mecca Defence Alliance enshrines a collective security arrangement modelled on Article 5 of NATO,[8] with its official announcement stating that “any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all.” It enables Saudi Arabia to finance and fund defence projects; Turkey to provide deep tech defence equipment; and Pakistan to provide manpower at the frontline; [9] however, analysts have noted that it was unlikely to extend the deterrence of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons to cover either Saudi Arabia or Turkey.
The trilateral pact has been described as a “major change” in Middle East geopolitics,[10] and the first institutional arrangement of its kind in the region.[8]
Notice that the effective date of the changes was yesterday.
Understand the difference between a pact , agreement and alliance . Mecca NATO is an alliance . There is nothing like article 5 . India’s top defense analyst on Pakistan affairs explains it in the first five minutes of this video with Nima .
For the 542nd time in the last few months, the Houthis have struck the Aramco facility at Jizan.
… But yeah, let’s all act like Iran TOTALLY can’t destroy the Gulf if they wanted to 🤦♂️
https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2096930269420986392/photo/1
AI Overview
The aerial distance from the Jazan refinery to the nearest point on the Yemen border is approximately 60 to 80 kilometers (about 37 to 50 miles), with the Jizan Region located directly north of the border along the Red Sea coast. “The aerial distance from Jazan to the nearest point on the Yemeni border is only about 60 to 80 kilometers .
The Yemenis could hit it with catapults . 🤣
The Mecca Joint Defence agreement does not have military to back it up, unlike NATO. It has some other characteristics of NATO, however. Iran is not part of this group, but it might sometime in the future, when the US is out of the picture.
Regarding, “Iran targets U. S. Carrier” in the title of this video,
at 36:55: What they [Irainians] have told very clearly to the Americans is that you have to lift your naval blockade.
The IRGC aerospace force has ballistic missiles that it can use against American ships. It has very capable radar abilities. Iran is believed to even have submarines, which they acquired from North Korea.
at 38:08: Iran will not allow Trump to have a good day and then go away not react after that and just hope that everything will be hunky dory and he’ll sail through the midterm elections and after that he can restart the war. So the Iranians are doing it now and Iranians now slowly will be showing more and more capabilities.
at 49:44: . NATO and EU are in big trouble in Ukraine. Huge trouble. This is the reason that you know this CIA director on 25th of August he went and met with his counterpart in Moscow. And now recently Kushner and Steve Witkov they were there to have a talk with President Putin basically wanting to save NATO.
at 53:53: the reality is that Trump wants normal ties with both the great powers, Putin as well as Xi. He wants normal ties.
One of the world’s largest energy traders says that the oil products market is in turmoil, as (working) refineries max out on production.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/its-pretty-tight-vitol-chief-warns-global-fuel-squeeze-refineries-max-out-leaving
the global industrial economy runs on usable fuels, particularly diesel, making refinery output and product availability super critical. Persistent disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, Russian energy export restrictions, and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries have compounded the squeeze into crisis territory, leaving fuel markets vulnerable to further supply shocks.
Vitol CEO Russell Hardy was quoted by Bloomberg earlier today as saying the refined-product market is in turmoil.
Hardy, who runs one of the world’s largest energy traders, said that even as recovering tanker shipments through the Hormuz chokepoint ease pressure on crude supply, limited refining capacity leaves little room for further disruptions.
“It’s pretty, pretty tight and inflexible out there as far as the market is concerned,” Hardy told an industry conference in Singapore on Tuesday. He noted that product stockpiles are near their lows and continue to slide.
Hardy warned that global oil-product stockpiles are “still drawing,” adding, “We’re still not running enough refining capacity to prevent those draws, and we keep eating into the surplus that exists around the world.”
The strain is particularly visible in the US. Just go to any gas station, and you can see the wide gap between 87-octane gasoline and diesel prices. Last week, diesel prices hit a record high nationwide.
The Iran War Phase Shift: Energy shock, rising complexity, and the end of the old growth regime
https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-iran-war-phase-shift-energy-shock-rising-complexity-and-the-end-of-the-old-growth-regime/
Excellent article, few people grasp what he said:
“But complexity carries a maintenance cost. Infrastructure must be repaired and replaced. Networks must be coordinated. Transportation, health care, defense, education, information processing and technical systems all require continuous flows of energy and materials simply to keep the existing structure functioning.
Complexity, in other words, carries an entropy fee: part of the system’s energy must continually be spent maintaining its organization and managing the consequences of its own throughput.”
This is the most important thing about civilization, be it in the oil age or before: every step of complexity you add to it has a permanent cost to just keep existing and staying the same, and it always becomes impossible to add growth once this maintanance cost becomes too big to handle.
That’s why EVERY society in the history of humanity collapsed. Civilization is anti-natural and requires a tremendous amount of energy just to exist, and it takes a giant toll on its citizens and the resources available.
I agree that Art Berman makes excelling points, including the one that John P. quotes. Some of the charts Art shows are not ones from Our World in Data that I have not noticed before. A few of the points Art makes are these:
Early in the article he says,
This is a structural turning point. Its economic, political and energetic consequences will persist long after the military conflict ends—even if a diplomatic settlement is reached in 2026.
He also says:
Major supply disruptions can persist long after the immediate crisis has passed.
And, as Joseph Tainter tells us:
Energy and complexity reinforced one another.
Regarding the period following 1981, he says:
The next expansion therefore required new facilitating conditions. . .
Finance became an increasingly important part of that new regime. . .
Energy growth recovered periodically afterward but never returned to its earlier trajectory. Debt, by contrast, continued to accumulate. Debt cannot replace energy, but expanding credit helped sustain consumption, investment and asset values as growth in energy availability per person became increasingly difficult to achieve.
Of course, this is a major part of what likely a problem now.
It seems like the next step is going to be a stock market crash. Valuations are are far exceeding rational expectations especially for the AI field. Without the room to add more debt I’m not sure how this continues.
I agree. Stock buybacks by companies seem to be headed downward. It is possible that some of the AI related stocks will want to sell more stock. These things tend to push the market down, I would think.
“Humans are very good and propping up the unsustainable. And this often leads to a fast and unexpected collapse”.
– Joseph Tainter
Today’s debt bubble and accompanying stock price bubble look like they are unsustainable. I hope Tainter is wrong, but I am afraid he could be right.
Tainter, yes! A classic good quote.
The ‘collapse’ -> fast cascading thru the system w. devastating non-predicted outcomes, vs. the milder softer version of slow erosion, peripheral disturbance, managed compensations, adjustment, adaption? A hopeful story, we humans can decide, act, have impacts, shape our destiny…
We veer between the two attitudes, so who knows what?
Driving in danger AF these days. Sooo many auto accidents.
The “crooked signs” are literally, everywhere!
At an AfD event in Magdeburg, a young attendee raises his arm in an apparent Nazi salute on a livestream before the interviewer quickly warns him: “Vorsicht mit der Hand!” (Careful with the hand!)
https://x.com/FurkanGozukara/status/2096708343611916399
They get a taste of freedom and think they are free.
Just a reminder .
” The U.S. Navy is facing a serious logistics problem in the Middle East.
Around 20 ships carrying roughly 20,000 sailors and Marines need more than 420,000 meals and about eight million gallons of fuel every week.
The situation became much harder after Iran destroyed a key Navy logistics base in Bahrain and made other nearby ports too dangerous to use.
Supply ships now have to travel about 2,200 miles to Diego Garcia, or even farther to Singapore, before returning to the fleet.
https://x.com/clashreport/status/2095602212773007664/photo/1
But they got nothing and we won “don’t call it a ” war”…. surrender now, I insist!
What gets me is how this gang in office gets away with any accountability.
Remarkable how this so called branches of government and the free journalism has been ineffective by measures to negate the outright false proclamations that the leader claims “are going well”
Yes, George Orwell should see the world today…
Is it possible to have a war in which everyone is losing? The WSJ is now saying:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/irans-oil-dollars-are-drying-upand-plunging-it-deeper-into-crisis-21bae4bd
Iran’s Oil Dollars Are Drying Up—and Plunging It Deeper Into Crisis
The U.S. blockade and dwindling supplies already on the water are squeezing Tehran’s most important export earner
The article shows a chart, based on Kpler vessel tracking data, showing Iran oil exports of the following amounts:
Feb. 2026 2.202 million bpd
Mar. 1.828
Apr. 1.517
May 0.261
June 0.742
July 0.893
Aug 0.255
The article says:
No Iranian crude has crossed the blockade since it was reinstated by the U.S. Navy in mid-July, according to ship tracker Kpler. Iran is still loading small amounts of oil onto tankers, but those barrels remain trapped inside the Gulf.
Meanwhile, the volume of Iranian crude already on vessels outside the blockade—a trove that is still generating revenue for Tehran—has fallen to around 29 million barrels from around 90 million barrels in mid-July and could run out next month, according to Kpler. Gulf oil officials, who run checks to see what their customers are buying before setting the monthly price for their oil, said they have found few Iranian cargoes changing hands.
Six months into the war, the oil squeeze is depriving Tehran of its main source of foreign currency as the value of the Iranian rial plunges, inflation soars and the economy slides deeper into crisis.
It is also testing Washington’s bet that greater economic pain will force concessions. Gulf officials and analysts warn the tightening vise could instead provoke more Iranian retaliation. On Saturday, the U.S. struck three Iranian oil tankers after Iran launched ballistic missiles toward two Navy warships, including an aircraft carrier.
“Now, much will depend on the degree of economic pain that the Iranian regime is willing to bear to achieve its military and geopolitical objectives,” said Hamad Hussain, an economist at Capital Economics.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touted the squeeze Friday with a post on X accompanied by a “Jaws”-style graphic of a shark tearing into a chart of Iran’s falling oil exports and currency. . .
Iran loaded 255,000 barrels a day on vessels inside the Gulf in August, 85% below the February-April average, Kpler data shows. Those newly loaded barrels remain trapped behind the blockade line and haven’t made their way toward buyers. . .
Kpler estimates that current deliveries of around a million barrels a day—which mostly go to China—could exhaust the store of Iranian oil on the water by mid-October. Payments for previously delivered cargoes would likely dry up by mid-December.
To some exctent everyone loses a war. There are economic and human losses on both sides. This said, expect China to start selling Treasuries to extend very long lines of credit to Iran. Also check what Chinese tankers are doing. Is the US interdicting those as well?
War is the mother of all energy input deletions. First with the resources consumed in preparation. Then with the deletion of those resources along with the bonus of the energy input deletions of the resources they destroy.
Of course if the weapons destroy infrastructure needed for high EROI energy sources that is a exponential energy input deletions.
Luckily these issues are solved by supply and demand and monetary policy just as they are in the financial system.
Team Greta appeared to be enjoying themselves with the franchise meeting in Moscow.
If there is one thing humans are fond of its absaloute convenient models.
A little loving and a little coin. Certainly understandable motives.
¿ Cómo va la productividad del Pérmico?
https://rayonegro.substack.com/p/como-va-la-productividad-del-permico?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=6627814&post_id=214564387&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=216vfx&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Another Quark post:
How is the Permian productivity performing?
The article says that data is now available to examine well productivity. Are the longer laterals really adding more production, for example. And is the ratio of gas to oil getting a lot higher. It is helpful to read the article and look at the graphs.
The answer doesn’t look promising:
2025 and especially 2026 are getting worse, despite the increase in horizontal lengths that we have seen in the EIA chart.
This decline is more clearly seen in the graph of cumulative production per well . . .
And the worst part is not that, gas production from the same wells is increasing sharply. . .
Until 2018 the GOR (Permian) ratio was contained, but the growth we saw until 2023 seems to be accelerating with the provisional data for 2025-2026. . . .
But in light of this data, it seems that this time the peak of US shale oil production is on the near horizon. The truth is that if we disregard the Gulf of Mexico (and its excellent 2025-2026 outlook, due to the completion of many projects), it appears that US production has already plateaued .
So what happened last week?
Iran has reportedly modified its state of the art Qassam Bassir to create a anti ship variant.
The base missile has
Speed less than mach 12
Electro optical terminal guidance
EW capabilities
Final approach maneuvering
The anti ship missile variant has reportedly added thermal targeting. The sea provides a uniform thermal surface and vessels thermal properties contrast with it creating robust target identification.
This missile is not a joke.
Iran fired one at the US navy carrier group. This is the first time for this variant. Early in the war one of the base missiles was probably fired at a Carrier group.
Near miss?
Demonstration?
Unknown
.
USN responded by destroying three Iranian tankers. Irans targeting of vessels was not comparable. Light UAV strikes as is standard for Iran generally when attacking commercial vessels.
IMO the USN response demonstrates the seriousness of this situation.
US will inflict damage on Iran if they hit a vessel with this missile.
Is a nuclear deterent truly a deterent when applied to a nation that has historical pride in martyrdom?
What is the the level of nuclear destruction that will solve this problem?
How will use of a nuclear weapon for the first time since world war 2 effect humanity?
https://youtube.com/shorts/nuXbvmJ_lSo?si=svKq6Jw66RbqaC5s
Apparently they had some sort of [ electro optical terminal / thermal guidance ] even on previous revisions of this and other weapon systems. While the W. msm was going over the top how all Iranian radars have been destroyed, so they supposedly lost the war.. well nowadays radars are not needed (that much).
I suspect that Iran was demonstrating what it can do.
‘You don’t have escalation dominance because we could sink your warships and kill those troops. They are legitimate targets. That would work out really badly for you in the polls. True you could respond and kill some of us, but you have done that anyway. That is not nice but we can cope with that. Are we even bothered? It just makes you look bad. Can you cope with major losses if your warships go down?’
The USA then demonstrated its ruthlessness.
‘Hey those tankers are civilians and not really legitimate targets, so you use drones. The deterrent is effective but civilians are not killed. We are the USA, and we really don’t care. We will use serious missiles on tankers and if some civilians get killed then too bad for them.’
The USA is trying to trump capabilities with ruthlessness, but it doesn’t really change the equation that Iran could sink warships and likely trash Trump in the polls.
USA cannot go nuclear because it would completely trash the diplomatic standing of the USA throughout the world. USA would have used a nuke in an illegal, unnecessary and unprovoked war against a non-nuclear state. His presidency would be over along with the USA on the world stage. The USA would face total isolation.
For now it is a stand off, and about who will buckle first given the dual ‘blockades’.
The thing is that the midterms are coming up. Trump wanted to dethrone the Iranian government, on behalf of Israel, but really it is him who is liable to lose legislative authority not them, and in no small part because of this highly unpopular, illegal, fruitless and highly disruptive war. That’s life.
So, ‘Tick, tock. Don’t get too bold Trumpy boy or some of your warships are going down, and how would that look for you just before the midterms? You mind yourself boy, and odds are that you are going down in the midterms anyway. Make that worse if you want. Think of your presidency as one of those warships – down it goes!’
There’s always divine intervention. It happens.
You are right:
“For now it is a stand off, and about who will buckle first given the dual ‘blockades’.”
The majority of Iranians are of course perfectly sane and do not share the Shia martyrdom complex, and in fact truly detest the religion professed by their rulers.
And the rulers? I am confident that they are as keen on enjoying this world as anyone else, the mullahs included.
Their view of the desirability of martyrdom might be like that of St Augustine; ‘Free me from Sin, O Lord, but not just yet!’.
The Iranian population is very much in support of the government. The martyrdom thing results
In blood all over the place in Mashhad , and may other places were the men compete with each other to show faith by hurting themselves, especially at Ashura. We might consider this insane. It’s a popular government except perhaps for the Kurds of the Zagros . The azeris love to show faith and suffer for Hussein too.
Us westerners don’t see this as rational at all, and hence it’s easy to convince us that it’s an elite minority option … to value death more than life.. weird indeed.
Iran is in fact deeply divided.
And even those who would once have called themselves Muslims are now so deeply disgusted by Shia Islam that they identify as secular, or ‘Zoroastrian’.
In January 2025 on the bus between Isfahan and Tehran I met a chemistry graduate student who spoke good english. At the midway rest stop she showed me around and I was a bit nervous that people would complain but apparently everyone was cool. In Tehran she helped me organize the taxi, we exchanged telegram contacts and went our separate ways.
In June 2025, after Usrael attacked iran I contacted her to give my support. This is her first reply
—
Hello Dear (name),
(relates status of university and where she is).
Thank you for remembering me. I hope that the oppressor will be destroyed in the whole world. We will fight to the death.
—
If westernized people think like this, what do you think the more conservative part of the country thinks?
If life on earth gets bad enough, I can see why a glorious future in the afterlife might be preferred.
Is it true that this is why Jesus was a big threat to the Roman Empire? Jesus empathized much with the slaves, poor and vulnerable. And he told his followers not to worry much about this life as something much better was coming for them in the afterlife?
Jesus taught his followers work in the direction of the Maximum Power Principle. They were to give away some of what they have to the poor. They were to think more about the life in the future, than the dismal life here on earth.
Somehow, the system needs to work in the direction of not allowing the powerful to become too powerful. Jesus worked in this direction. No wonder that he was not liked by the already powerful.
Just to cross the t’s and dot the i’s:
1) how do they need EW if they are hypersonic? it really does not matter, they will not be stopped
2) how does the electro-(mechanical-)optical system works when the hypersonic missile is inside a plasma on reentry? Of course in space it will work and reentry at those speeds is only several seconds. Probably final targeting is done in space, optically or thermally, perhaps with pre-programming of one or two maneuvers in the atmosphere. I think once it is in the atmosphere the missile is blind at all wavelengths.
Ted Postal said the Iranian ballistic missiles only exhibited accuracy of a couple hundred meters when the were used to attack Israel. As I understand you can’t have high mach speeds and accuracy both. You don’t have enough time to steer. This would seem to make high mach ballistic missiles ineffective against moving vessels especially since they will be implementing evasive maneuvers with a ballistic missile coming down.
Nevertheless it seems to be a thing.
https://news.usni.org/2025/12/26/chinese-forces-fielding-intercontinental-anti-ship-ballistic-missiles-capable-of-reaching-u-s-west-coast-pentagon-says
If anti ship ballistic missiles can demonstrate accurate terminal guidance ( I have doubts) homing in on inputs from optical or thermal technology it means retreating behind the oceans after a war is a less viable technique. There is no more “over there”. Hither is thither. It also means no military that is not a leader in missile technology can be a peer with those that are.
AKA carrier group investment is not prudent. You learn missiles or your not a peer.
I don’t see how you are going to hit a vessel evading at high mach. Nor do missiles coming down from space slow down easily to target even manuverable and glide type. If technology is there it won’t be cheap.
MIRV or cluster techniques however would seem to have applications. Ballistic missiles have large payloads.
It will be interesting to see how long ultra sophisticated military technology will continue as the the rest of industrial civilization experiences the inevitable consequences of lowered energy input.
https://youtu.be/MVpMUgKtds4?si=Jkhl5rWZfY8bHBnF
Humor.
I admit I have not thought about the reentry problems, so here are some random thoughts certainly worth less than 0.02$.
1) IIRC at least some of the ballistic missiles have multiple motors. Oreshnik has 3. changing the motor thrust weights is a lot faster than engaging a rare earth magnet and wait for the engaged spoiler or flap to affect the trajectory.
2) Since the thing comes down in a plasma, which certainly affects visibility, I wonder if it is possible to provide an infrared dot from an overhead satellite possessed of a good laser.
The Russians also say they can maintain radio contact with some of their hypersonics, which I guess can be done with a trailing cable working as an antenna. So targeting could also be provided by radio link.
Though I think good targeting can only be done from space, electro-optical-mechanical, meaning the rocket flies blind for about 10 seconds. A destroyer might be nimble enough, but a carrier might not.
3) targeting from space requires at least precise wind information. Or at least maneuver so as to be precisely parallel or antiparallel with the wind.
4) when all else fails there is always cluster munitions. If the precision is really 100 or 200 meters, you still have a sizable chance of success with ten warheads on a carrier. you only really need a pothole in the runway to disable it.
In a bored moment yesterday, I asked ChatGPT who was to blame for everything. “The French”, came the unexpected reply. I asked “Why?”, and Chat listed a few of their transgressions against the English / British across the centuries, starting with 1066. I accused it of being politically incorrect, but it countered that it had recognised that my question was not serious. Hinting at its lack of consciousness, I replied, “I forgive you, for you know not what you say or do”. It continued, “So by invoking Luke 23:34, you are excusing me on the grounds of my artificial innocence. I shall savour that absolution!”
I had quite a chuckle at the “artificial innocence” bit, as opposed to the normal “artificial intelligence” . I enjoy that sort of inventive sarcasm, but I wasn’t expecting that level of sophistication from the consciousness-free ChatGPT. 🙂
I will be headed to the airport today, to return home. I may be slow to respond.
Continuing our exploration of the history and prehistory of our finite planet, going way, way, way back to when dinosaurs ruled the world (imagine the size of their rulers!); let’s look at what do we know and how do we know it, by asking a friendly AI.
AI-san, we’ve talked about how the Earth’s climate and the atmosphere was rather different when the dinosaurs were at the apex of the food chain. How was it established that the atmospheric CO2 levels and the temperature were much higher during the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods than they are in our present period?
That’s a difficult question, but a fair one! 🙂
Scientists established that atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures were significantly higher during the Jurassic and Cretaceous periods using indirect climate clues called paleoclimate proxies. Because direct records like ice cores only go back roughly 800,000 to 2.7 million years, scientists look to the chemical, biological, and geological signatures preserved in the deep rock record to measure Earth’s ancient “greenhouse” state.
Estimating Ancient Temperature
Oxygen Isotope Ratios:
This is the most reliable thermal baseline tool. Scientists analyze the shells of ancient marine organisms (like foraminifera or clams) and fossilized dinosaur teeth preserved in sediment cores. Oxygen has two primary stable isotopes: the lighter 16O and the heavier 18O). In warmer oceans, marine life incorporates a higher ratio of 16O into their calcium carbonate shells or tooth enamel. Measuring these ratios using mass spectrometers indicates that Jurassic and Cretaceous oceans were up to 8°C to 15°C warmer than today.
Biogeographical Clues:
The physical fossil record visually backs up the chemical data. Fossilized tropical plants (like relatives of the Norfolk Island pine), crocodilians, and extensive coral reefs are consistently found at high paleolatitudes near the poles. The absolute absence of polar glacial ice sheets in the Mesozoic rock layers further confirms a nearly globally uniform, hot climate.
Estimating Ancient Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Plant Stomata Density:
Leaves breathe in CO2 through tiny microscopic pores called stomata. When atmospheric CO2 is exceptionally high, plants naturally grow fewer stomata because they can easily gather the carbon they need. By studying incredibly well-preserved fossil leaves—particularly from ancient Ginkgo trees—and comparing their low pore density to modern leaves, scientists have proven that Mesozoic CO2 concentrations were drastically higher.
Boron Isotopes in Marine Shells:
The boron isotope composition embedded within fossilized ocean shells alters depending on the acidity (pH) of the water. Because higher concentrations of atmospheric CO2 chemically force the oceans to become more acidic, measuring boron isotopes allows scientists to reverse-engineer the atmospheric gas concentrations of the period.
Seismic Tomography and Carbon Modeling: Earth scientists use a method similar to a medical CT scan—called seismic tomography—to image tectonic plates that sank into the deep mantle millions of years ago. By calculating the volume of these ancient plates, researchers quantified the massive scale of seafloor spreading and volcanic activity (such as the eruptions that built the Deccan Traps). Plugging this data into advanced carbon-cycle models confirmed that volcanic emissions regularly sustained Jurassic CO2 levels 4 to 5 times higher than present-day levels (reaching up to 1,200–1,500+ ppm).
Siberian coast citrus plantation for the win!
But realistically as the human-oids go likely extinct and the universe happens cruising in over-all cooling down mode anyway, it likely won’t come to that near pole heat bonanza ~ever again.
Tim… you bring up an interesting time period in our planetary history. I want to quote from Peter Wadhams’ “A Farewell to Ice” (p. 31) – “The entry period to our modern climatic world was the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago). Global Pliocene temperatures were on average 2 to 4 C warmer than pre-industrial modern temperatures, and sea level was 25 meters higher. This implies that there was less water tied up in ice sheets and indeed it seems that Greenland was ice-free although Antarctica had an ice sheet. There was no Arctic sea ice. In fact conditions were rather like those that we are heading into as we modify our own climate, although we don not expect such a huge sea level rise in the short term. The warm temperatures drove an intense hydrological cycle with extreme evaporation and precipitation, which brought extensive rain forests, lush savannahs (where there are now deserts) and small ice caps (about 2/3 of the present area). Early ancestors to Man existed on the Earth but were too few to have an impact on its development. Agriculture would not have been possible because of extreme downpours and heat waves. The idea of planting seeds and expecting them to grow would not have occurred to our ancestors in such an environment. The main thing about this period is that it was cooler than what had come before it but still to warm for a glacial cycle”.
Google AI tells me that:
“During the Pliocene epoch (5.3 to 2.6 million years ago), Earth’s climate underwent a dramatic transformation. It serves as a critical period of study for modern scientists because it was the last time atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels hovered around 400 ppm—virtually identical to the greenhouse gas concentrations seen today.
The peak of Pliocene warmth occurred during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Global Temperatures: Average temperatures were 2°C to 3°C (3.6°F to 5.4°F) warmer than the pre-industrial era.
The warming wasn’t uniform; it was heavily amplified at the poles. Summer temperatures in the Arctic were up to 14°C (25°F) hotter than today. The Arctic Ocean was likely completely free of summer sea ice, and the tundra biome was almost entirely absent from the Northern Hemisphere. Because the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets were heavily melted, sea levels were 15 to 25 meters (50 to 80 feet) higher than present day.”
This summary is in broad agreement with what Peter Wadhams wrote in A Farewell to Ice.
A few things I’d like to point out:
During the Pliocene epoch, equatorial temperatures were roughly 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warmer than modern pre-industrial levels. This is what always happens. Global climate change—if it means anything— means minor equatorial warming or cooling plus major polar warming or cooling.
This is because the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans act as a heat engine, heat arriving from the sun mostly warms the tropics, and from there the heat flows towards the poles.
However, this “minor” tropical warming carries massive energetic consequences. According to the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases exponentially with temperature (about 7% per degree C of warming). Because the tropics are already hot, a 1ºC rise at the equator allows a massive volume of water vapor to remain in the air. Water vapor is itself a potent greenhouse gas, fueling further global warming and driving much more intense storms worldwide.
Cue Jim Hansen’s Storms of My Grandchildren.
At the same time, since in a warmer world, the temperature differential between the equator and the poles is less, there is likely be less wind and less energetic movement of heat towards the poles, which sounds like a paradox.
According to my AI friend; “The paradox resolves like this: global warming reduces the day-to-day wind baseline by weakening the global equator-to-pole atmospheric gradient, leading to stagnating weather patterns and stuck jet streams. However, by placing a rapidly melting ice cube (Greenland/Antarctica) right next to an overheating tropical bath, it creates a hyper-volatile boundary line. The result isn’t a continuous, gentle breeze distributing heat—it is a system that builds up immense heat and moisture tension until it snaps in the form of cataclysmic, chaotic storms.”
Wadhams and Hansen, among many others, speculate that by increasing atmospheric CO2, we are in danger of returning the world to Pliocene conditions, which would be catastrophic for a world of 8 billion humans that support themselves by industrial agriculture. I don’t think there is any danger of such a return, but I agree that if it happened it would be a catastrophe.
I also think we are headed for a catastrophe regardless of any changes in the climate. We’re running out of many kinds of natural resources, running out of cultural resources, running out of physical resilience to all the mostly chemical assaults we are subjected to, running out patience, running out of margin, and running out of good luck.
Our current greenhouse gas levels bring us to conditions last seen during the Pliocene. It takes time for temperatures and see levels to catch up to our current greenhouse gas levels. But who knows what will happen in terms of a global shift as we hit limits to growth? So many unknowns… Also based on natural orbital patterns we were headed to a slow, long term trend to future glaciation (within this ice age – we are currently in an inter-glacial). Its hard to know what’s going to happen…
I would caution us not to jump to conclusions about CO2 being the driving force behind climate or temperature conditions.
We can tell the story of how Earth cooled over from the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO)—a prolonged period of extreme global warmth spanning roughly 53 to 49 million years ago, representing the hottest sustained interval of the Cenozoic era—to the depths of the last interglacial about 20,000 years ago, in several ways.
We can make the atmospheric CO2 level the hero of the tale, the main protagonist, which forced everything else to happen. Or we can give CO2 the role of a bit player, like those TV actors who appear in show after show, but never as the star, merely as a supporting character.
What seems clear is that it was once much warmer than it is today, and CO2 level was much higher, and the ocean level was much higher. But things changed, and despite the very high initial CO2 level, The world slowly got cooler. And the ocean level got lower. And the CO2 level got lower. And the atmospheric water vapor got lower. And the amount of green land got lower. And it isn’t easy to work out which of these decreasing factors were drivers and which were passengers.
I find discussing this with AIs to be very educational. They are programmed to explain things in terms of what I call the orthodoxy (CO2 is the main control knob) and I like to play Devil’s Advocate probing for weaknesses in the narrative. The AIs are very good at remaining patient with me and giving me direct answers. And it turns out that so far no matter what questions I ask, they can always come up with a plausible scenario in which CO2 remains in the driving seat.
But I have pointed out that the paleo data is subject to various interpretations, and that while current models make assumptions that, if granted, would make CO2 the main driver, by using different assumptions, it is possible to make models in which CO2 is merely a dependent variable. There is also lot of play in paleoclimate discussions between researchers in the field.
I think we all need to question more. Especially me. I need to keep questioning my preconceived beliefs and prejudices as much as I question other people’s.
definitely…. always question… learned some new things from your posts above. I ran into this a few years ago – a study from Cardiff University – which I quote from AI “a natural historical process where melting icebergs from Antarctica act as a trigger to plunge the Earth into an ice age, effectively reversing global warming trends over million-year cycles”.
US committed to selling 172M barrels out of the US SPR as part of the joint IEA 400M global release.
September we will see the end of this committment, putting us about ~9M barrles below the Congressional 252.4M mandate. (42 U.S.C. §6241(h))
The chart is still stunning sitting at levels last seen from 1982. (The reserve was created in 1975) .
Quo Vadis ? After me the deluge .
https://x.com/chigrl/status/2096656094588449088/photo/1
US shale is running out of Tier 1 drilling locations…
The only major US production growth story of the last decade is peaking.
When US conventional oil production hit its geological limits around 1970:
US production peaked and declined for decades….
Despite oil surging 30x, production never regained its 1970 peak.
Now shale is running into the same fundamental constraint: the best rock is finite.
Geology > oil prices.
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2096630531932704924/photo/1
Art replies:
https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2096752924403568831?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
This is actually a more adequate chart.
It shows Tight Oil production till now (what we generally call ‘US Shale Oil from hydraulic fracking’) which seems flat.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/data/browser/#/?v=33&f=M&s=0&start=200811&end=202712&linechart=TOPRL48&maptype=0&ctype=linechart&id=
The chart is frightening. What happens next?
Diesel currently in Florida is around $6 a gallon.
Fixed the typo
US committed to selling 172M barrels out of the US SPR as part of the joint IEA D00M global release.
AfD is the far right party in. German. Exit polls in Germany:
https://www.eugyppius.com/p/sachsen-anhalt-results-post-exit
SACHSEN-ANHALT RESULTS POST: Exit polls have AfD just short of absolute Landtag majority
In the first (ZDF) version, AfD would be one seat short of an absolute majority. CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke would be able to outvote them, 42 to 41. In the second (ARD) version, the AfD would be three seats short, because the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) is scraping past 5% in this scenario. CDU, SPD, Greens and Linke would have the same share of Landtag seats as the AfD, namely 39.
Far right is a vast exaggeration. how about sticklers for thee voters’ and the nation’s interest?
Yes, there are several YT vids about their rallys in recent days ( AFD or BSW ) on avg mostly normal ” little people ” no extremes.. if anything perhaps more to the naive attitude ( as this could be ever repaired again ) ..
Germany endures a lil economic hardship.
Look who’s back baby!
The group seems to have some good ideas.
Make Germany Great Again!
Wasn’t that tried already?
They’re going to send you back from Russia in a carboard box!
The rise of far right parties is a major concern for western European states, and their growth is seen as part of Russia’s ‘hybrid war’ against European NATO powers.
‘What could possibly go wrong?’
Germany aims to become the strongest military power in Europe by far, now spending more on the military than Britain and France combined, because of Russia – and now the AFD, expected to take over 40% of the vote in elections in an eastern region today, sees Germany’s interests as lying with Russia. Obviously a pact between Russia and Germany could never happen.
That is thing about popular democracy, regime change can potentially be just an election away. What happens then?
No one really knows who the future leaders of USA, China, Russia or Germany will be in 10 years time let alone 20, and what they will want, because no one really has a crystal ball.
Three of the basic principles of Realism:
1) You don’t really know what other states will do in the future.
2) ‘Defensive’ military capacity is potentially ‘offensive’ military capacity.
3) If you ‘call 911’ about the aggression of another state, then there is no one ‘at the other end to take your call and act on it.’
So you had better be careful about future outcomes, maybe build alliances like NATO, and take measures now. But there is no guarantee that things will work out for you.
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/05/europe/germany-state-election-afd-trump-russia-intl
… For supposedly a state-level election, Russia has been a feature.
“We’re quite transparent about saying that we want an especially good relationship with Russia, of course, but also with the United States of America, because those are simply important players in this world,” said Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD candidate for the premiership in Saxony-Anhalt, who would lead the state in the event that his party gets an outright majority of votes on Sunday.
“We see American interests, we see Russian interests, but we have our own interest, namely the German interest,” Siegmund told CNN in an August interview.
The AfD’s support of Russia is no secret – the party is against further aid and defense packages for Ukraine, often referring to defense funding for Kyiv as money that is not being spent on programs for German people.
Key party officials have also made frequent trips to Moscow, St. Petersberg and the occupied Crimean peninsula – something that has raised alarm bells among corruption watchdogs.
The AfD has also vowed to bring back the cheap Russian gas that once fueled Germany but has been phased out following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
But for eastern states, like Saxony-Anhalt, which were once under the purview of the Soviet Union, Möller said “it runs deeper than the cost of energy. There is a long tradition of working with Russia in Germany.”
I hadn’t anticipated this:
“We’re quite transparent about saying that we want an especially good relationship with Russia.”
This could help settle things down a bit. Or at least change the dynamics.
The stallion already left the stable.
RU won’t ever trust Euros again ( or for very long time ). Even if AFD/BSW/.. take over, they would re-start only say ~1/3rd of former west-bound energy exports capacity as all has been sold to Asia in long term contracts. Especially as they were in weaker negoc position to their trading partners around the yr ~2022.. hence selling more volume for les$..
Certainly, a lot has already been sold to China and others by long term contract, leaving not very much for Europeans.
And was this not, perhaps one of the aims behind the aggressive war against Russia in the Ukraine, with the EU as a compliant proxy – voluntarily locked out of essential fossil fuel supplies?
Or just passively watching its supply lines blow up.
As well as wrecking any possibility of a peaceful, and logical, European-Russian alliance, freezing out the US?
Do I hear chickens coming home to roost all over Europe?
Or are they vultures and carrion crows?
The leader of the German “far right” a prominent lesbian in a long term committed relationship. This gal has super sharp verbal skills and has been tearing the German Brussels politicians new assholes in debates. She grows increasingly more popular in Germany much to Brussels concern.
If you want the issues buried and are not willing to discuss you call it far right
Germany is waking up that economy can not be legislated. Half still believes in the Brussels pixi dust.
https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2026/0704/Alternative-for-Germany-convention-protests
Without Silesia, trashed by Polish monkeys, Germany can never rise up
Is her sexual orientation or her significant-other relationship status germane to the political issues at play here?
Yes Tim I agree with you. Sexual orientation should not have bearing on status. The reason why I think it has bearing is the practice of calling or defining something as far right to end people’ trying to find solutions or end injustice. Sexual orientation should not have bearing on status but name calling should not either.
The “far right” name calling is generally associated with intolerance for sexual orientation. This woman’s sexual orientation reveals the hypocrisy of the name calling thats not a revelation at all. Because the name calling like all name calling is not a genuine communication. It is the anti thesis to genuine tolerance and communication that allows cooperation . It is a demand to invoke emotion to disenfranchise opponents. Name calling destroys trust and trust is necessary for cooperation. It is a secondary characteristic of the uniparty which must above all things not agree and cooperate. If we were to cooperate we would be united and find agreement. That’s nationalistic and fascist right? There must be a repugnant enemy not a neighbor because that allows exceptionalism. Exceptionalism and divisiveness being the primary characteristics of the uniparty. Name calling is the primary method to eliminate critical thinking and enforce gang psychology. Life becomes choosing your gang not the freedom and growth of evaluating what you actually think and believe.
This “far right” designation is ridiculous. A party that wants to inject some common sense into the Left wing governance…
Wolf says a 5% 10 year won’t be a problem . I totally disagree . We have had 25 years of suppressed interest rates after the dotcom bust in 2000 . In 2000 the US debt was $ 5.67 Trillion and today $ 40 Trillion . Read the comments .
https://wolfstreet.com/2026/09/05/the-10-year-treasury-yield-over-5-my-thoughts/
The [ /b ] side to the above story is that while the debt grew, the investor class made fabulous gains in RE, tech stocks, .. almost or in some instance by even greater multiplication factor. Hence they are not in position/need to rock the boat for now.
Yes, ~small time investors and lesser countries holding US debt see it differently ( been robbed of value ) but their voice counts for less at the moment..
Interesting points. Now, much more wage and wealth disparity.
I agree really comparisons to past eras are not applicable. Yes interest on debt is a issue of course but following George Gammons ideas I think Hyperscalers able to borrow at reasonable rates is a more immediate issue.
Like a lot of things time scale is really the question. There are a lot of things that can break not just one and your balancing. The ledge your balancing on gets thinner and thinner.
IMO higher rates are inevitable and they will cause problems. Exactly what will break and at what rate is unknown. Success in intervention is measured in time IMO.
I think higher rates are inevitable because I think inflation stays high even as we hit the wall. I could be wrong. I think this is the era where supply of physical commodities is a greater factor than monetary policy or demand. This of course would be a big change.
Is 5 percent going to break things? IMO no. It doesn’t matter IMO because we are going to find out. The better question is will 6 percent break things IMO. IMO it’s only a matter of time. Intervention success is measured in it taking more time to get there.
If George Gammon is correct the most immediate problem with higher rates is Hyperscalers being unable to afford to borrow. If they stop spending the USA economy will not continue at this level. Nor nations like Korea. If they continue spending if rates are higher they must either issue more shares popping the asset bubble or profit decreases also popping the asset bubble (gammon). This is one of the balancing acts and it appears the most immediate.
From this perspective that the hyperscalers debt unaffordability breaks first not other fragile systems one can start to form the boundaries of the question whether 5 percent will do that. My guess is no. But I think we are continuing north of 5 percent.
This is my opinion. I think Gammons argument that hyperscaler debt unaffordability will break first is very reasonable .Is a dot com style bust inevitable? Of course. Is a higher ten year inevitable? Of course. Will significant things break? Of course. The question is the what is the time frame. Guessing that is very difficult. Unlike before these things will break in the era of commodity depletion and supply chain reduction or cessation.
As I mentioned my perception is the crisis will be unlike any other because abundant and affordable energy will be much smaller than previous crisis. I find that the most interesting question. What exactly are we looking at this time? I don’t think anyone knows. While curious I would be quite pleased to not find out but I think we will.
The unanswered question of WW2 remains. War was a integral part of the self healing economy but has rather dire consequences with the advent of nuclear weapons. IMO that’s really where rubber hits the road when considering interesting questions. Clash of the titans. Self healing economy vs mutually assured destruction. A lot of these failure to balance acts seem to have the potential for rather extreme outcomes.
Tim, Youtube has a series of videos about Mata the cat who lives a traditional life in Hokkaido, Japan. The visuals are stunning the subjects are soothing. It is better than real life. I would love to know your take of realism.
Link please I was touched by that story of the Japanese dog that awaited his master every day at the train station after his death.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLuXtBj94mU&t=122s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EH4vpwlIsyk
finally a good use for AI
Thank you.
About that dog.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/09/07/ancient-remedy-to-reduce-stress
The health benefits of having a dog.
Traditional Life in Hokkaido?
This is traditional life in hokkaido, 1910
https://youtu.be/scsNnZ2G9AQ?si=TF31yGL4IMIKLGuC
That island was inhabited by a people called Ainu, whose origins nobody knows.
Their language was unlike anything like Japanese or any other people in their neighborhood and they still lived like hunter and gatherers.
Not surprisingly, the Japanese quickly seized all of their land and by 1950 there were no more native speakers of Ainu languages, everyone having to use Japanese every day to get by.
Not until their culture was sufficiently exterminated that the Japanese began to talk about them, but if you want traditional life of Hokkaido, that is the traditional life there, unlike the fictional cat who lives a fictional life in an ai created anime.`
I knew an Ainu
A long time ago
The Ainu that I knew
Lived in Hokkaido
Prior to the Meiji period, the Japanese regarded Ezo as a foreign land and the Ainu as foreigners. But from the 1700s they felt compelled to take it over in order to defend themselves from the encroaching Russians.
The Ainu also used to inhabit Tohoku, the northern third of Honshu. But over the centuries, there was a probably a fair amount of what might be called ethnic cleansing and a lot of interbreeding, with the result that the northern Japanese have a lot of Ainu blood in their veins, and to the trained eye they look physically different from the southern Japanese, who are rounder faced, rounder bodies and more Polynesian-looking—although most Japanese have a fair bit of Chinese, Korean, Mongol, and North American (Red) Indian in their makeup. So much for racial purity/
According to Wikipedia, “he Ainu are an indigenous East Eurasian people native to northern Japan (Hokkaido) and parts of eastern Russia. They are the direct descendants of the ancient Jōmon hunter-gatherers, who inhabited the Japanese archipelago for over 15,000 years.”
“Genetically, the Ainu are most closely related to the Ryukyuan people of Okinawa. Both populations carry a high percentage of ancient Jōmon DNA because they lived on the geographic extremes of Japan, meaning they did not heavily intermix with the agricultural Yamato (Yayoi) migrants who swamped mainland Japan from the Korean Peninsula starting around 300 BCE.”
Perhaps the Ainu and the Okinawans could launch a “Koreans Go Home!” movement?
That is an interesting video. Reminds a person of Koreans, perhaps North Koreans.
Thank you, Ed.
I agree with you. These videos are soothing.
They also make me want to tidy up my own place and throw lots of stuff away. The modern world is far too cluttered.
Yes, these Mata videos are realistic looking but at the same time cartoonish. There is also a bit of nostalgia on view, I’ve seen country houses in Japan where people got water from a well with a hand pump, but I have never seen the double bucket system in use.
The nostalgia is a big plus.
Chainsaw maker STIHL chief calls for longer hours without extra pay
Add Euronews on Google
In an opinion piece for Euronews, Dr Nikolas Stihl, chairman of world-leading chainsaw maker STIHL, calls for reforms including a 40-hour working week without extra pay to safeguard Germany’s prosperity and welfare state.
The family entrepreneur from Waiblingen in southern Germany does not mince his words: “The German economy has been stuck in crisis mode for years. The prerequisite for overcoming the persistent weakness in growth is better framework conditions,” Stihl said.
Family businessman Stihl takes a long-term view, and for him one thing is clear: “The situation of the German economy is serious, very serious. In the past eight years we have lost around 15 percent of our industrial output. Month after month Germany is losing around 15,000 industrial jobs.”
Time for the corporate serfs to get a beating…
Yes, “the beatings will continue until morale improves”.
IBM US engineers work 60 hours per week no overtime pay. It has been this way for more than 20 years. Also no pension plan. The Germans sure do sound entitled.
My mother was a RN Nurse and had to deal with the same in that profession. Even today, nursing is still just a job in many cases and not a profession.
Nurses Are QUITTING After This Happening And It Gets Worse
I worked on several joint projects with European technicians and engineers. They considered overtime on critical projects with deadlines unthinkable. Barbaric. They do have some talented technicians and engineers for sure.
One project was outsourcing to a plant in Ireland. Ireland gave the land to my corporation and s contract that said no taxes forever to get a manufacturing plant and the jobs. So we were bringing up a prototype line with Irish techs. One confided in me they were concerned with the “strictness” . “Only two beers at lunch and no whisky”. All the Irish technicians and Engineers would take over a bar after work then return to the rental housing corporate housing provided after it closed at 2 am.and party on. They liked to sing. I was young and tried to hang a couple times but way out of my league . The rental place threatened to cease further rentals. They were not very sharp in the morning. Finally the plant manager had a meeting with all of them informing that they were expected to be on top of their game every minute they were at the plant. They complied. Good times.
The product eventually bombed. A competitor started cleaning our clocks with a much more affordable product. Then corporate decided they didn’t want to actually manufacture things just think of ideas and engineer them. They sold all manufacturing facilities and 90 percent of employees. Then of course everything moved to China anyway.
We were crazy spoiled back then. A technician only had to be a technician not programer, machinest, documentation creator , source all materials and create BOM and export documents and mandatory class 3 hazmat. We had separate engineers for mechanical pneumatic hydraulic and electrical and that’s all they had to do! Cake.
It was pretty sophisticated but nothing compared to the manufacturing machine China has become.
Whichever approach is least expensive is the one that succeeds. This happens over and over, until somehow resource start to run short for the least expensive approach.
Everywhere in the “advanced” world, we have gotten used to benefits that cannot possibly be sustained. Short work weeks. Expensive healthcare thrown in. Pension plans, starting at age 67 or earlier.
In the pre-fossil fuel age, pension plans were unknown. Health care was very limited. Work was often close to sun up to sun down.
Ah, the good old days. I remember growing up with grandfather and his coal furnace in the cellar with a workbench to repair and fix (him saying fixing”) not replace, shoes, cloths, with hoarding items that were possibly needed in the future.
Yep, got myself a paper route at age 13 to buy my first actual new bicycle and walked it on Sundays morning for the Hackensack NJ paper The Record, now defunct, but still have the patch that was given for me as a Honorary Lifetime Newspaper Boy…miss those nearly cold showers too and drafty windows in the winter…oh, those were the days
Some people are better suited for colder climates.
In America, short work weeks usually equals part time. jobs. Part time jobs exist in their current form to avoid paying mandatory benefits. Yeah, there are some cushy jobs where people don’t do much but those are relatively rare.
Many educated work more than 40 hours, especially in the serious professions . In many of the countries or places the U.S. imports cheap goods from people work from sun up to sun down. In many cases, globally, people’s lives revolve around where they work.
The short work weeks, lots of benefits thing is a mostly European phenomenon, and even with short work weeks their birth rates are low. It would be even lower if they all worked like the East Asians.
You are right. If an organization doesn’t have much revenue to pay workers, it is likely to use part-time workers as much as possible. The hope is that women who have spouses with health insurance will take these jobs, so that the organization can avoid paying high-cost health insurance coverage. Hiring two such people is cheaper than hiring one full-time person. Young people who don’t really need health insurance may also be interested in such positions.
But many poor people end up trying to work two or three of these part-time jobs. They have a difficult time making enough. They never get health insurance, except the type they have to pay for fully by themselves. They have a difficult time getting married because they earn so little.
But would this greatly reduce unit costs?
I spoke to a tree surgeon recently, seeking advice on an electric chainsaw.
One point he made is that people in the industry are abandoning Stihl, as a Chinese brand offers the same quality at half the price. Spare parts readily available, lots of dealers, etc.
Times are tough, taxes up, competition increasing, and customers more penny-pinching, so Stihl becomes a luxury product from being the one they once swore by.
Interesting that Still came up. They are on my you know what list right now. I have one of their chainsaws. at the beginning of the summer it would not start. It was so hard to pull that it was near impossible. So I went on a journey to figure out the problem There is next to nothing online about Stihl on this problem Lots of YouTube videos. I took off the carb drenched the crankcase in cleaner, trying to clean any carbon deposits. After all this, I did get it to be able to pull the starter by 2 compressions. I finally got it to start. Then I made th mistake and let it run out of gas. Never started again. I found gas in the crankcase and concluded the carburetor was steaming too much gas into the crankcase, making it hard to pull. It makes sense. Gas is less compressible that air or air-gas mixture. So now I order a carb kit to replace the manifold and hope it works. But due to Stihls’ policies I can only order from Stihl 5 weeks now and I am still waiting. It has now been all summer that my chainsaw has largely not worked.
I am done with Stihl.
Note: even Stihl has been using for some of its products subcontractors..(inside EU).. the profit margin on the finalist brand was implicitly high then..
Now, the main thing, I guess it’s chiefly related to general mega-trend of transferring technology. When CHNs factories have nowadays on the floor their own CNCs and laser cutters and in-house R&D.. it’s almost over for EU/US to compete.. as almost everything could be made and further developed inside CHN.
For example, so far I’ve no incentive to abandon my Fiskars array of basic hand tools, but even these smaller precises niches will be one day swept away by CHN for good.
e.g. lets say even the Fiskars all-purpose / kitchen large scissors are so ever sharp ( ~laser cut sharpened .. metallurgic secret mojo hardened ? ) you can cut out/clean poultry(bones) with it BUT also “at the same time” trim your finger nails* on them after many y/y of abuse.. w.out additional sharpening; hence imagine lot of ( unseen ) know-how surely went into such long lasting superb product along many inner steps and stages of production..
__
* don’t necessarily try at home kids, lol..
Quality hand tools are beautiful thing.
I am afraid this story may be right:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hartnett-democratic-sweep-will-trigger-stock-market-rout-and-pop-ai-bubble
Hartnett: A Democratic Sweep Will Trigger A Stock Market Rout, And Pop The AI Bubble
The biggest story last week was not the unexpectedly hot jobs report which, unfortunately, will be revised sharply lower next month as the labor market reverts to its deteriorating, AI-enhanced, trendline: Instead, what everyone was – or should have been focusing on – was the bottom falling out of the bond market with global yields jumping to the highest level in 2 decades.
. . .
the topic of soaring bond yields is also the kick-off theme of the latest weekly Flow Show (available to pro subs) from BofA’s Michael Hartnett, who writes that with a 99% probability the ECB hikes Sept 10th, 53% Fed hikes on 16th, 98% BoJ hikes 18th (per Bloomberg futures pricing), the hikes are coming fast and furious as central banks try to restore credibility to ward off surge in bond yields.
. . .
a Democrat sweep is a threat to asset prices: an electoral shift from populist capitalism to populist socialism, means the next big direction in tax & regulation is up not down (and EPS negative), and would be accompanied by policies to lower inflation, healthcare, improve affordability challenge K-shape wealth boom, AI capex boom, stocks “too big to fail” Wall Street zeitgeist.
Additionally, loss of political capital = less ability for Trump to coerce resources, corporations, foreign governments into support for policy priorities of AI war with China, resource monopolization.
Putting all this together, Hartnett says a Democrat sweep = big risk-off: it would lead to a slump in i) stocks (more than 10%), ii) the dollar, and iii) bond yields into year-end, while international stocks outperform on less trade & military wars… but Europe outperforms Asia (loses Trump AI friend); the BofA strategist says the best hedge for a Democrat sweep is short financials & US dollar. In contrast, a surprise GOP sweep (maintain House/Senate) control = big risk-on, and more importantly a green light for AI bubble and positive US dollar (“exceptionalism returns”).
Finally, the largely priced-in scenario of a “GOP Senate/ DEM House” translates into more of the same: modest risk-on… “gridlock = goldilocks”.
The economy seems to like “gridlock = goldilocks”.
Yes but it really doesn’t matter as most people on here know the end is already baked in the cake. All that we are seeing has been planned out for years. Most people on here will be dead in less than 10 years and it doesn’t look good for their children…
https://youtu.be/8tZuF8DJCxg?is=lMykKzob0lkH1T0N
Demi is going to hate me for posting this, but needs must!
It’s a doom anthem you can really tap your toes to.
Standing at the end of the horizon
Looking at another setting sun
Nature gave us all these toys to play with
But we’ve abused them, each and every one
They stretched the chord, snapped the wire
Lit the fuse but can’t retire
We’re going to the wall of fire
Tip-toeing on the great high wire
Let’s have a real fire
The city slickers built the great illusion
Now they’re the first to crumble in the sun
Now we’re going through the wall
Let’s see the flames before we fall
We’re going through the wall of fire
Let’s have a real fire
Tip-toeing on the great high wire
Through the wall of fire
We drove on many rocky roads together
Through the storms and hurricanes we rode
Unified so no one could destroy us
We stretched the bounds
But always kept the code
Liberals shout and cause concern
Forget next week while we all burn
Let’s run right through the wall of fire
Let’s have a real fire
Death-defying while the flames grow higher
Through the wall of fire
Let’s go through the wall of fire
Running through the wall of fire
Less than 10 years?
No kidding?
Stuck on my eyes!
What a surprise!
My brain hurts a lot!
That’s all we got!
As the island slowly sank
The loser finally broke the bank in the gambling room
The dealer said, “It’s too late now
You can take your money, but I don’t know how
You’ll spend it in the tomb”
The tiny man bit the soldier’s ear
As the floor caved in and the boiler in the basement blew
While she’s out on the balcony, where a stranger tells her
“My darling, je vous aime beaucoup”
She sheds a tear and then begins to pray
As the fire burns on and the smoke drifts away
From Black Diamond Bay
I was sitting home alone one night in L.A
Watching old Cronkite on the seven o’clock news
It seems there was an earthquake that
Left nothing but a Panama hat
And a pair of old Greek shoes
Didn’t seem like much was happening
So I turned it off and went to grab another beer
Seems like every time you turn around
There’s another hard-luck story that you’re going to hear
And there’s really nothing anyone can say
And I never did plan to go anyway
To Black Diamond Bay
I have the Desire album on CD. I bought it after being inspired by my high school teacher.
That interview didn’t demonstrate a lot of evidence for the imminent end of the world. The hot takes involving concentration camps and the comparison of the current presidential administration to the 3rd Reich reeks of hyperbole.
Mutually Assured Destruction
It remains to be seen if the world leaders will compel us to bomb ourselves back into the stone age than deal with the collapse of industrial civilization.
The WSJ is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/carmakers-have-a-new-idea-to-boost-ev-range-add-a-gas-engine-16bbcc34
Carmakers Have a New Idea to Boost EV Range: Add a Gas Engine
Hyundai, Ford and Stellantis are planning to introduce larger EVs with gas generators to solve range anxiety
The auto industry has a new solution to Americans’ fear that electric vehicles will run out of juice: a gasoline engine.
Hyundai, Ford Motor F 1.46%increase; up pointing triangle and Jeep parent Stellantis STLA 1.28%increase; up pointing triangle are among the first U.S.-market automakers planning to roll out a new kind of plug-in vehicle called an extended-range EV. It is a fully electric car with the security blanket of a gas-powered generator to charge the battery, if needed—ensuring you won’t end up stranded as long as a gas station is nearby.
. . .
Most plug-in hybrids on the road today are essentially gasoline vehicles with a battery shoehorned in to provide a small amount of all-electric range. EREVs flip the concept. They are designed first as electric vehicles, and the engine solely acts as a generator for the battery, with no mechanical connection to the wheels.
The setup saves some battery costs compared with full EVs and eliminates the need for gas-car parts like a transmission. EREVs also drive like EVs, including instant acceleration even when the battery is drawing from the generator.
Brilliant!
Yes, that’s has been discussed already.
Chiefly aimed at larger PHEVs which will be discontinued, think
ala Jeep Cherokee TrailHawk awd – won’t get new PHEV updated generation anymore, but instead will be switched into this small onboard genset platform.
Surely at some point they will add a small sail. increases efficiency when there is a tail wind. also some pedals for when the driver feels like exercising.
Low driving speeds would do a lot more to save energy consumption than everything else they’ve been trying.
Trying to keep up the current speed of activity with “renewables” is impossible.
Without the current speed, the system falls apart. Or at least some parts of it do. They think they can pick and choose which parts will fall apart. We’ll see.
But low driving speeds fill up streets with more vehicles because it takes everyone longer to get to where they are going. Low driving speeds are not necessarily good. We tried 55mph speed limits, and they were not universally loved.
New York state has 55mph and is moving to 45mph on many roads.
The current speeds don’t help much with commutes because many roads are overcapacity at “rush hours”. The vehicle population traveling in most cities has grown much faster than the cities themselves, which results in daily gridlock and longer commutes.
Low speeds, which were last en vogue a century ago, will work in lockstep with a population of vehicles similar to what existed a century ago.
Another reason why lower speeds wouldn’t work right now is cultural. Everyone is under constant pressure from society to do more quicker and that is why I believe that low speeds , currently ,would be very unpopular.
What they’re trying to say is that they’re just going to make more hybrids but act like they’re doing something new.
“The difference here, though, is that the engine is in no way connected to the drivetrain.
It cannot directly move the car.
It only acts as an onboard generator to recharge the battery.”
But it’s still being charged with fossil fuels.
I guess charging them with solar panels is too impractical.
Nope, today’s/legacy PHEVs are more complex, especially on large 4×4/awd car models as mentioned above, that’s why they are cutting the portfolio there, huge savings. You have to keep the transmission tunnel, gearboxes etc. While with the new approach they will just put emotor on each axis, plus that small generator charging the batteries, which are now larger and in skateboard fashion not just smallish tucked inconveniently under the rear trunk.
Yes, it’s a [ hybrid ] jn general – conceptual sense again, but with completely different tech set-up from now on..
This is the future for trucking as well. Truckers can adjust the their parking position and roof PV panels angle while taking their mandatory logged rest period during the day in those bad ass little comfort cubes. A small ICE engine tops battery charge off when needed.
A little like adding a small adjustable sail to ships for an extra boost.
Strategic metals literally going up in smoke
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2026/09/strategic-metals-literally-going-up-in.html#more
Excellent insight! Excerpt from article by Kurt Cobb:
It is the military applications which interest me here because much of the volume of strategic minerals in most civilian devices can be recycled when devices containing them are junked. But, of course, in warfare the whole point in many cases is to just blow stuff up. And, once you do that to something containing any of the strategic minerals important for military applications, there is no chance to recover the metals and use them again.
That’s why this headline caught my eye: “Ukraine’s Drone Warfare Devouring 4% Of Global Germanium Demand As China Chokes Supplies.” I can’t verify whether this claim is true, but some nonzero amount of germanium is being consumed by drone warfare, not just in the Ukraine-Russia war, but also in the Iran war with the United States and Israel. It’s important to note that germanium has many civilian applications such as semiconductors, solar energy, autonomous vehicles, scientific instruments, battery technology and a variety of health care applications.
. . .
All this tells me that the quest of the United States and other countries to secure access to supplies which are not in the hands of adversaries will almost certainly fall dramatically short of stated goals. And, strategic metals wasted on warfare will mean less available to create the high-tech world our tech overlords are promising to build which, as it turns out, requires huge physical resources. While there are many reasons to believe that this high-tech world will not emerge as promised (and that may actually be a relief!), there can be no dispute that a lack of physical resources would prevent it from being built out at scale.