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The nature of the shortage of diesel and jet fuel is more complex than most people realize. Based on my analysis, a shortfall has existed since at least 2020. The shortage is not simply the result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In this post, I will provide background information regarding the nature of the shortfall and the international conflict it is leading to. I will also share my thoughts on how, over the long term, the situation might be mitigated. I doubt whether a solution will be available in the short term, but I can at least give readers an idea of one direction in which a possible workaround might be available.
My idea is that the economy needs to transform itself in a way that uses diesel and jet fuel (grouped together on some reports as “middle distillates”) more sparingly. At the same time, research on extracting heavy oil and bitumen at lower cost is needed. If this is done, it may be possible to use additional heavy oil to increase the supply of diesel and jet fuel.
One thing that will probably need to change is the price of diesel relative to gasoline. The price difference will likely need to be even greater than it has been in the recent past because heavy oil is inherently more difficult to extract, refine, process, and transport.
[1] The interconnected nature of the economy means that inexpensive energy products are extremely important to the economy.
Energy supply and the economy are a great deal more interconnected than most people realize. For example, if the price of diesel rises, the price of food also tends to rise because diesel is used in food production and transportation. Similarly, if the price of gasoline rises, the additional cost also tends to squeeze budgets. Politicians see these price increases and say to themselves, “These increases will make voters unhappy. Let’s raise interest rates and see if we can get oil prices back down.”
Higher interest rates don’t affect everyone immediately, but they particularly impact people purchasing a vehicle or a home, and businesses seeking a loan.
Clearly, raising interest rates at the same time as energy prices are rising is “playing with fire.” If the economy is really overstimulated and growing too quickly, this type of approach makes sense. But if the underlying problem is that diesel and jet fuel prices are high because of inadequate world production, what is really needed is higher oil prices, especially for the heavier crude oils that provide a disproportionate share of diesel and jet fuel.
Consumers and oil producers have two different needs for prices:
- Consumers want diesel and jet fuel prices low because high prices wreck their budgets. Diesel is used in growing food and transporting it to market. Jet fuel is used in transporting some kinds of foods. In fact, industries of all kinds (including mining, road building, and construction) use diesel and jet fuel. Higher prices of these fuels tend to make practically any kind of goods or services more expensive.
- Oil producers want diesel and jet fuel prices high, to incentivize investment in new wells. Without additional investment, the quantity of heavy oil extracted and made into these fuels will tend to decrease because of depletion issues.
While prices for diesel and jet fuel are higher this fall, quite a bit of the extra charges relate to extra transport and insurance costs. The high prices need to stay, and perhaps even increase, even if the immediate issues disappear, in order to incentivize greater long-term production. It is these rising prices that are likely to continue to squeeze budgets and push economies toward recession.
[2] What we call “oil” can vary quite widely from well to well. The trend over time has been toward lighter crude oils.
Most people assume that all oil is equivalent, but this is not the case. Petroleum is a mixture of hydrocarbon molecules. The lightest ones are gases are room temperature, the medium weight ones are liquids, and the heaviest ones tend to be quite viscous. Some are even solids. Some oils, especially heavy oils, have sulfur or metal inclusions. Crude oil that contains sulfur is called “sour oil.”
Heavier oils are ones that disproportionately produce diesel and jet fuel. Lighter oils tend to produce more gasoline, along with products like solvents, and the feedstocks for plastics.
In my view, a major reason why there tends to be a shortfall in diesel and jet fuel production (even apart from the current Middle East blockages) is that the type of oil needed tends to be more expensive to extract, refine, and transport than light oil. Furthermore, oil with sulfur tends to be quite corrosive, and removing the sulfur adds another layer of costs. The primary issue I see is that it is hard to pass on the higher production costs of heavy and sour oils to customers.
In theory, to cover all the costs involved related to heavy and sour oils, diesel and jet fuel prices should be quite a bit higher than gasoline prices for the same volume (liter or gallon). But if this were the case, the price of food would also increase, since diesel is extensively used in food production and transportation.
Figure 2 shows end products from the production process. We know, however, that lighter end products tend to come from lighter crude oils, so we can deduce that the crude oil mixture has been getting lighter over time. The amounts in Figure 2 include natural gas liquids, which are very light and growing in quantity.
The earliest oil that was extracted tended to be “medium oil,” which tended to have a mixture of heavier and lighter molecules. As the medium oil depleted, new production tended to be lighter. In particular, US tight oil from shale is quite light. The increasing production of US tight oil from shale is adding to the Very Light layer, as well as the Gasoline layer.
[3] The world had a diesel and jet fuel shortage long before 2026.
Because of the need for diesel and jet fuel in industry and transportation, a person would expect per-capita diesel and jet fuel consumption to grow as industry and international trade grows.
Figure 3 shows that per capita consumption of diesel and jet fuel stopped growing about 2005. The year 2005 seems to be the time that the world’s output of “conventional” (easy to extract) oil reached a peak. Figure 3 also shows that per capita consumption then plateaued until about 2019. It fell 16% in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover since. The historical data on this chart is only through 2025, but the big Middle East cutbacks in 2026 will clearly send diesel and jet fuel consumption down from the 2025 level in 2026, as indicated by the red arrow.
At least in part, what is happening is that recent oil prices have not been high enough for countries producing somewhat heavy, sour oil. This is especially the case for oil exporting countries that depend on oil revenue to support their economies. They need more revenue than just enough to cover the cost of extraction, plus a reasonable return for shareholders. They also need money to fund the development of make-work projects to employ their citizens and to fund subsidized imported food for their population.
In the peak oil community, there seems to be the view that Middle East oil is always cheap to extract and refine. At one time, this may have been true, but most analyses overlook the tax needs of oil exporting countries. Tax needs are high in countries with exploding populations who need subsidized imported food. Huge make-work projects to provide employment possibilities, such as Saudi Arabia’s construction of the city Neom, add to the need for higher tax revenue. Middle Eastern oil costs may also be rising because of depletion issues, such as wells yielding relatively more water in the oil/water mixture extracted.
[4] For oil exporters, one symptom of chronically inadequate prices for heavy/sour oil (including the need for high tax revenue) is the willingness to engage in war.
If a person looks through my suggested list of heavy/sour oil producers shown on Figure 4, all the countries seem at least somewhat war-like. Even Canada tends to be war-like. Canadian leaders would be much happier if the price of crude oil exported to the US were considerably higher, and it would be less inclined to seek export partners in Asia and Europe.
If the oil production of the heavy/sour countries and country groups found on Figure 4 is added together, the result is as shown in Figure 5. The total production of these countries exceeds the production of the rest of the world.
Notice that the countries of the Middle East tend to be quite price sensitive. Their production dropped steeply in 2020 when oil prices fell. Likewise, their production rose in 2022 when oil prices were temporarily higher, related to the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
[5] Authorities claim that there would be plenty of heavy oil to refine if prices were to rise high enough for long enough.
The United States Geological Services provides maps of available heavy oil and bitumen deposits. Figure 6 indicates that heavy oil is widely available in North America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.
In 2015, the International Energy Agency published a report indicating that in its view, there were huge deposits of extra heavy oil and bitumen (EHOB) that could be accessed if the price of oil rose high enough for long enough (Figure 7). The same exhibit shows somewhat smaller availability of tight oil from shale. In fact, the US has been able to access a substantial amount of tight oil from shale in recent years.
In my opinion, in order to access the EHOB, the prices of diesel and jet fuel need to rise to a high level over the long term; the prices of gasoline and even lighter products don’t necessarily need to rise. If the prices of diesel and jet fuel rise high enough, for long enough, the price signal should work its way back to oil and gas companies, suggesting that they need to make investments in the direction of adding more extraction from EHOB. If this succeeds, it could perhaps relieve the problem of inadequate supply of diesel and jet fuel.
The prices of diesel and jet fuel are high now, but this is at least partly due to higher insurance costs and partly due to the extra costs related to shipping oil longer distances to avoid blocked straits. These extra costs don’t get back to oil companies in a way that encourages countries to extract more heavy oil. What is needed are permanently higher prices for diesel and jet fuel, relative to the price of gasoline, even if the problems with respect to the straits of Hormuz and of Bab al-Mandab, disappear.
[6] Today’s conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine seem to relate to inadequate supplies of diesel and jet fuel for buyers of these fuels, and inadequate prices for sellers of the heavy/sour oils yielding these products.
Figure 3, above, shows that the total supply of diesel plus jet fuel has been low, especially since 2020. One issue that has arisen recently is “Who gets the supply of diesel plus jet fuel that is available?” Figure 8 shows that increasingly, it has been the poorer countries of the world who obtain the diesel and jet fuel that is available. Note that total consumption of the Other than Advanced Countries has exceeded that of the Advanced Countries since 2020.
Figure 9 shows that for the Advanced Economies, per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel has been declining since about 2005–the time of peak conventional crude oil. The same figure shows that per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel has plateaued since 2013 for Other than Advanced Countries. I think of 2013 as the year that China first started encountering major limits on coal extraction (somewhat like the year 1970 in the US for oil extraction). In recent years, China has been able to raise coal extraction somewhat, but at a higher cost.
I would expect that countries in both groups would be dismayed by the situation shown in Figure 9. The per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel for the Advanced Countries has been falling for a long time. Partly this is the result of the economies changing to service economies. As service economies, the need for diesel by industry has been lessened. Wages tend to be less for many of these service jobs, making workers unhappy.
In Figure 9, people in the Other than Advanced Countries would tend to be dismayed by the continued wide gap between the standard of living of their own economy, and the standards of living in the Advanced Countries. Many of these countries export extracted resources that are ultimately sold as goods to people living in Advanced Countries. If the selling prices of these commodities were higher, workers in these countries could perhaps afford to have cars and air conditioning, like workers in the Advanced Countries. They would also be dismayed by the poor progress in raising their own per-capita consumption of diesel and jet fuel since 2013.
[7] Is there any possibility of greatly ramping up heavy oil production? Could it power a society like the one we have today?
We know that heavy oil production began long ago. For example, the first recorded production of heavy oil began in the Kern River Basin in California in the 1860s, and commercial production began there in 1899. The first production in the Canadian Oil Sands began in 1921, and commercial production there began in 1967.
The extent to which the oil that is heavy and often sour can be ramped up in the future remains to be seen. Extraction techniques have gradually been improving, and I would expect that they can continue to improve. But the cost of extraction and processing will likely remain somewhat high because of all the energy-intensive steps that are needed to provide diesel and jet fuel.
I expect that society itself will need to change in order to make use of this higher-cost oil. These are a few ideas I have:
(a) Oil exporting countries will need to change in ways that reduce their need for tax revenue. This is an issue especially in the Middle East, which has a huge population, in a hot, dry climate. The population will likely need to fall (for example, many migrants and guest workers may need to move back to their country of origin), and make-work projects will need to be discontinued.
(b) Another issue is that total diesel and jet fuel usage will likely need to be reduced because it is likely to take several years before production of heavy oil can be ramped up. Society will need to be reorganized in a way that uses less diesel and jet fuel. One idea would be to shorten supply chains whenever possible. Figure 10 illustrates one idea how this might be done.
(c) I expect that if such a change can be made, economies will need to gradually change in ways that are hard for us to understand now. The focus may need to be on essentials, including food and clothing. Governments may need to be smaller and provide fewer services. Communities may need to be smaller and more walkable. The total population may need to be lower.
[8] Conclusion
It seems to me that the self-organizing nature of economies will gradually push them in the directions they need to go if the world is to start incorporating a significant quantity of expensive products made from heavy oil into its energy mix.
We cannot yet imagine what all the changes will look like. In some ways they may resemble a recession, but there will likely still be an interest in greater complexity and in working to improve people’s lives.
“He said in the case of direct attack which seemed to me
16:45 to be a message to the whole world that an indirect attack
16:51 whatever that is would not provoke a nuclear response from Russia. . . .
The fact is that Russian exports are across the Black Sea
20:06 of wheat and grains to Turkey and Egypt. major major markets are cut off.
20:12 Coal exports a major supply for India cut off because the Black Sea isn’t as
20:20 badly denied to the Russians as the Russians have denied the Black Sea to the Ukraine. But the damage is serious.
20:27 Now, cutting off sea lanes in the Black Sea is what they’re doing. Attacking the
20:33 hinterland is what they’re doing.’?
It seems like the West keeps pushing in the direction of WW3. I would prefer that WW3 not be the end point, but if there are not enough energy resources to go around, that might be the way it goes.
Our hostess voted for Trump, but is she now turning against him? After all, she has long-standing links with China, and she once tried to discredit Wile E Coyote by telling people he was a gigolo.
And just what exactly is she enriching in her garden shed?
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1iPm0B3_7FtixuTZZutQrEGcqGMi-n9ib/view
Does that steel drum contain hopium? Having trouble reading it and need new glasses.
It says, “PLUTONIUM – DO NOT OPEN”.
You have been WARNED!
This looks like an AI photo.
The drought is digging deeper.
Villages in a water-stressed region of Slovakia are running out of water. The drought has made their long-standing water problems even worse, and the army is being called in to supply them with water.
https://my.sme.sk/novohrad/c/v-desiatich-obciach-vyschli-studne-aj-pramene-na-pomoc-tam-mieri-armada-s-cisternami
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1wMwZtI9rPvmFwoVc2Y12yW8iL-JAcN6e/view
Such strange-looking people, these Slaviks.
we are getting right into an end-of-bronze-age scenario. Droughts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, people of the sea ravaging coastal communities. Mont Etna made it clear it will participate recently. Maybe that bridge to Sicily is not needed after all.
AIR CARGO
We touched the argument some days ago.
Here one can find a well-written article, full or reliable data about what is happening in the sector worldwide.
Jet fuel has increased almost +80% since last year.
https://www.uominietrasporti.it/professione/logistica/cargo-aereo-il-paradosso-vola-piu-merci-con-meno-capacita/
An article explaining what is going on. The reason that prices can rise this much is because more cargo is trying to squeeze into the same space. What is squeezed out is the low value cargo.
Air cargo, the paradox soars: more goods with less capacity
In August, global air cargo demand grew by 4.4%, while available capacity decreased by 0.1%. In Europe, the gap is even wider: +4.1% versus -3.5%. But behind the global figure, there are markets experiencing double-digit growth and others declining just as rapidly. Meanwhile, jet fuel costs nearly 80% more than a year ago, and new European e-commerce rules are reshaping some flows from Asia. In Italy, cargo handled at airports is stagnating at 2025 levels, largely due to the decline at Malpensa.
The air cargo sector grew by 13.6% in July
Global air cargo continues to grow. And quite a bit. But what’s most intriguing is how it’s doing it. In August, demand increased by 4.4% compared to the same month in 2025 , while available capacity decreased by 0.1% . The cargo load factor thus rose to 46%, up two percentage points in a year. For international operations alone, demand growth reached 5.3%.
These are the data published by IATA and describe a market that, at least in the last available month, is managing to generate more transport without increasing overall offered capacity. Before interpreting them, however, it’s important to understand what they measure.
. . .
This is why August’s 4.4% increase doesn’t simply reflect a growing market, but a more selective one . When capacity and fuel become expensive, air travel tends to increasingly focus on goods whose speed, urgency, value, or reliability justify the cost of transportation. And if a portion of low-value e-commerce were to actually migrate to European stocks, shipment consolidation, and less expensive modes, this selective approach could intensify.
The upcoming year-end peak will therefore be particularly interesting, not only to see how much cargo will fly , but to understand which cargo will continue to be valuable enough to afford to fly .
Just read somewhere ” The job of the future’s market is to allocate future growth(prosperity) to the relevant quarters (blocks) . The question is what happens when there is no future growth — the markets become irrelevant as they fail in their primary function ” .
Aramco CEO Says Oil Inventories Could Take Two Years to Rebuild
Emergency reserves wouldn’t resolve longer-term supply constraints, Amin Nasser says
https://archive.li/03VDQ#selection-567.0-571.84
Perfect example how the media and the headline accounts are manipulating news rn…
❌ Manipulative Headline: “Saudi Aramco cuts oil prices for Asia due to recovering Hormuz flows”
👉Reality: Saudi Aramco cut oil prices to compensate Asian buyers for skyrocketing freight costs in Hormuz, while they raised prices in Europe to offset it.
Some more on France .
” Investors, unwilling to take chances, are dumping French bonds while buying safe German debt. ”
https://live.euronext.com/en/financial-news/french-bond-contagion-fears-are-rattling-euro
The news is always number of tankers not tonnage . If it is a Suezmax tanker it is 800,000 barrels , if Afrimax it is 600,000 barrels but a VLCC is 2,000,000 barrels . Technically speaking landed cost of crude at the refinery door is now approx $ 200 per barrel . We are FUBAR and broke .
https://indi.ca/it-doesnt-matter-how-much-oil-gets-through-the-strait/
Good point!
Notice in the USA some on the left claim Trump wants to declare martial law to postpone the elections.
And reading reddit overseas. the right is saying the same thing about the left and these protest in France. They claim the left wants civil chaos to postpone the election so LePenn doesn’t win.
And this begs the question. Whatever happened to just losing and taking it on the chin? Have we become so divided that we can’t even tolerate losing one election to the other side. This is basically like wiping all the pieces off the board before your opponent checkmates you.
And is this how democracy ends?
Democracy only works during times of plenty during collapse we begin the nightmare era
Personally, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. Democracy, as I understand it, is where the citizens determine what their laws are – typically expressed through elections and jury trials. For this to work, people need to be literate.
So I think democracy fails once literacy rates decline past a certain threshold.
The picture in England appears to be that literacy rates in children are holding steady when compared to other nations, but declining when compared to adults.
https://literacytrust.org.uk/information/what-is-literacy/how-does-englands-literacy-compare-other-countries/
People outside the UK probably won’t remember Michael Gove, but he was an MP who pushed for education reform with a focus on a knowledge rich curriculum. However, he received enormous pushback with people outraged that they should read the classics.
Also worth noting is the attack on jury trials here in the UK.
Hello everyone, I’ve been following this economist and Forbes writer for a while now. He believes the signal confirming we will enter a recession in the very near future was passed in July. He expects a sharp drop in inflation and a blowout in short-term bond yields right after the US stock market finishes its final leg up, which should happen in the coming days or weeks.
Just check his model here:
https://x.com/HenrikZeberg/status/2105207924997967987
Here is the youtube video where he explains it:
“34:46 now, but this this gross output indicator would would suggest that uh we’re we’re not going to end up with a recession right around the corner . . .”?
Lord of the Flies is coming .
Jack: “My hunters brought you meat.”
Ralph: ” But while you were hunting, you let the fire go out just as a ship was passing through. We could have been rescued.”
I think that the rapidly growing debt (government and AI), together with the war effort and the building of AI, makes it look like gross output is very high. If the debt bubbles can stay inflated, perhaps this indication is true. The question is, “How long can the debt bubbles stay inflated?”
The speaker on the Big Short video below said,
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2026/09/30/can-the-diesel-and-jet-fuel-shortage-be-solved/comment-page-2/#comment-519914
“Republicans and Democrats both want to keep increasing the government debt bubble.” And I suppose that there is an argument that the government can try to prevent the AI bubble from crashing.
I didn’t listen to all of that video. If I understood correctly, the Big Short video speaker seemed to think that the debt bubble would crash when the stock market crashed. So maybe the stock market price, AI bubble, and government debt bubble are all connected.
If there is a way that long term interest rates can fall, it would help keep housing and real estate in general from completely collapsing. Falling long-term interest rates would really help the banks, also. Magic??? I haven’t had a chance to look at the “No Bond Crisis” video.
I think that Henrik Zeberg has the right idea. What most analysts are looking at is the GDP outputs, which are influenced by the huge debt bubbles underlying everything–stock prices, AI valuations, government debt problems.
According to Zeberg, what we need to be looking at is job creation. (I expect that the number of immigrants coming in the door influences this also, and Zeberg may talk about this also, but I didn’t get that far.) Job creation has very low, only 16,000 per month in 2025 (after all the revisions). People cannot afford to buy the homes available. We have to be headed into a recession. It just hasn’t gotten here yet, with all of the bubble spending.
This time the oil price shock is because of lack of supply of oil. The spike in prices is punishing the consumer. Higher interest rates add to this effect. But there a lagging when it comes to the affordability factor hitting. Initially, people can initially pay the higher prices out of savings. Eventually, it has to be the wages of workers that determine prices, and this is what causes interest rates to fall. (I would add that it also causes oil prices to fall. )
00:00 Intro
01:00 Where Henrik Sees the Cycle Today
10:14 Why Bond Yields Are About to Plunge
21:50 The Signals That Confirm Recession
33:32 America’s Frozen Housing Market
40:17 Why the Fed Is Playing With Fire
49:27 Why Stagflation Comes After the Bust
56:58 Dollar, Nasdaq and the Final Blow-Off
1:08:29 Gold’s Pullback Before the Next Bull Run
1:16:15 Bitcoin, Altcoins and the Deflationary Bust
1:23:40 What Happens Over the Next Three Months
I have only listened to the beginning of the video, but I said at the beginning, I think Zeberg has the right idea.
To me, falling prices and weak demand do not sound good in China, with or without swine flu.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/chinese-pig-farmers-report-suspected-swine-fever-outbreaks-prices-fall
Pig farmers in several parts of China are reporting suspected outbreaks of African swine fever that they say have killed large numbers of pigs and forced some farms to clear their herds, adding pressure on small producers already struggling with falling prices and weak demand.
I’ve read articles over the last few months that China has increased exports to other countries even as exports to USA have declined. Not sure problems with pig production should be extrapolated to other areas.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Europes-Soaring-Gas-Bill-Is-Sending-Utilities-Back-to-Coal.html
Prices are so high, in fact, that coal-fired power has become cheaper than gas-fired power in Europe for the first time in years. This calculus has pushed many European nations, and especially the European Union’s largest economy, Germany, back to coal. And, worryingly, experts contend that that trend will continue for years to come.
“Coal is expected to remain cheaper than gas for power generation through next year and potentially until March 2028,” Reuters reported earlier this week, based on a conversation with Marta Wroniszewska, an analyst at Veyt. “Longer-dated gas prices indicate traders expect supply constraints to persist.”
However, there are notable limits to coal’s growth potential in Europe. Years of policy aimed at phasing down and phasing out coal have left the continent with dramatically fewer coal-fired power plants than it had previously. . .
Outside of Europe, however, it’s a different story. Globally, coal is still the single-biggest source of power production. And while Europe is shutting down its coal-fired capacity, many emerging economies are continuing to build theirs up, with particularly strong growth from the Philippines, Indonesia, and other rapidly developing countries across Asia. Not coincidentally, this was also the region hit hardest by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Maybe new attack on Saudi pipeline:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/saudi-east-west-pipeline-hit-new-attack-still-flowing-normal
Massive Fires Along Saudi Oil Export Pipeline, Regional Outlet Says
The news outlet of pro-Iranian factions in Iraq, Sabereen News, has cited new satellite imagery to report “massive fires in the Saudi oil export pipeline.”
The outlet posted the following image on its official Telegram channel. Newsquawk, which picked up the Sabereen report, has noted that it remains unclear whether this is a new incident or is damage stemming from the earlier reported Sunday attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline (detailed below):
Taizz also apparently encircled. Just Wiley Bin Salman going down the stairs head first.
Update:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/houthis-seize-yemen-parliament-speakers-home-cut-taiz-aden-lifeline-all-out-war-erupts
Houthis Unleash Large Missile, Drone Barrage On Saudi Arabia, Target Riyadh Airport & Aramco Facility
Saudi-backed forces launch major counteroffensive with roughly 100 Saudi fighter jets supporting attacks along the Red Sea coast.
Islam NATO activated after a meeting in Riyadh. we will see what it amounts to but i can see erdogan and the people behind the paki coup start fighting on behalf of the saudis.
The churning in India continues . We could have a tipping point in a week . I will keep you informed . The centre of the capital is now converted onto a barricaded city .
Oh, dear!
It seems that protest getting bigger in Europe particularly in Spain and France. I’m seeing videos show up in my Youtube and X feed. I think the summer was too warm and now the weather is better. I thought I also saw a clip of Macron getting slapped on the face.
Seems about time for some civil unrest, Battle Royale (all vs all).
The Purge?
monster mash
Growth may look like it’s leveling out in India but that’s because a lot of the movers and makers who were in India migrated to outer space. There’re some cool India etfs that track the outer space companies that employ a lot of them or are founded by one of them.
IG , you should change your handle because you are ignorant just as Cramer . India has never recovered from Covid . All data is fudged . The IMF and WB have downgraded Indian data reporting to ‘C’ the lowest grade . Here is a video of the former Finance secretary throwing hot water on the 7.8% growth figure of the last quarter which is actually 2.8 % .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fxMUqHC1VdY
https://www.sanskritiias.com/current-affairs/imf-flags-concerns-over-indias-gdp-data-quality-in-2025-review
The facts– only the facts .
$ 20 billion sold to defend the rupee last week alone .
https://finimize.com/content/rbi-is-using-fx-swaps-to-drain-rupee-liquidity
What makes the numbers even more alarming is that the 2.8% growth rate includes inflation. Net of inflation, growth is about 0%.
I am guessing that from now on, world GDP growth will really be zero or negative, but that agencies putting together numbers will be given non-sense numbers to combine. That will keep reported world GDP growing. That, plus all of the funding for the “service” of war and the service of AI. Much more debt, driving up the interest rate.
You must be talking about the real interest rate or real value. I’m not sure if anyone beside a loan shark is not losing a significant amount of purchasing power to inflation at this point.
I don’t know why but every time you post something I feel like it should end with the dancing banana imogi. Are you human or AI ?
“The churning in India continues”
An interesting use of the word “churning”, Ravi. How would you define it in standard English? Maybe it could go on Wiktionary.
Nice to see some people have a backbone.
“4:40 Basically 50% of future revenue of Oracle is from a company that loses
4:46 money like crazy. Well that’s what I was going to ask you. Maybe you can explain how this works.
4:51 But from my perspective, I don’t understand where this money is coming from.”?
This is a detailed discussion, but the part I saw of it didn’t come to a date of when things would fall apart. The video ends with the statement that neither political party has any interest in cutting US government debt.
0:00 AI’s Concentration Risk
10:50 Chinese Competition
13:30 Manufactured Hysteria
16:00 No Moats
18:38 Changing Business Models
21:50 Michael Burry’s Thesis
24:00 AI’s Power Problem
30:34 How to Invest in AI
34:35 How Steve Invests
36:20 US Debt
37:45 Interest Rates
39:00 Bessent’s Buyback Plan
39:49 Owning Precious Metals
40:20 Bitcoin
41:37 Investing Outside the US
42:20 The US Taking its Medicine
I love the smell of burning tyres in the morning . 😉 . Riots in France .
Another, “Oh, dear!”