Category Archives: Energy policy

How Does the Economy Really Work?

The world economy is an amazingly complex, physics-based, self-organizing system. The three major elements are extracted resources including energy resources, human population, and demand coming through the financial system. All three of these elements tend to increase over time, but both population and extracted resources tend to hit limits because the world is finite. Continue reading

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Reaching the end of offshored industrialization

Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers. Continue reading

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Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits

Historical data show that a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits (oil and coal, especially) become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. Continue reading

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Can India come out ahead in an energy squeeze?

The slower the growth, the more sustainable an economy is over the moderately long term.

Energy consumption and the use of complexity tend to rise together.

Too much complexity can lead to collapse.

In general, the most “efficient” economies can be expected to do best.

Over the long term, all economies will collapse.

There have been shifts in which economies get a major share of available energy supplies. Shifting patterns are likely again in the future.

India may come out ahead in an energy squeeze because its warm climate and conservative culture allow its energy consumption per capita to remain low. Continue reading

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Fossil Fuel Imports Are Already Constrained

The big question for any fuel is, “Can consumers afford to pay a high enough price to cover all the costs involved in getting the fuel from endpoint to endpoint, at the time it is needed?”

Citizens become very unhappy if the cost of winter heat becomes extremely expensive. They demand subsidies and rebates from the government, in order to keep costs down. This is a sign that prices are too high for the consumer.

Both coal and natural gas are also heavily used in manufacturing. Their prices vary greatly from location to location and from time to time. If coal or natural gas prices rise in a particular location, the cost of manufactured goods from that location will also tend to rise. These higher prices will particularly hurt a manufacturing country, such as Germany, because its manufactured goods will become less competitive in the world marketplace. Continue reading

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