$50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful?
I would argue that it really is not.
When oil was over $100 per barrel, human beings in many countries were getting the benefit of most of that high oil price:
- Some of the $100 per barrel goes as wages to the employees of the oil company who extracted the oil.
- Often, the oil company contracts with another company to do part of the oil extraction. Part of the $100 per barrel is paid as wages to employees of the subcontracting companies.
- An oil company buys many goods, such as steel pipe, which are made by others. Part of the $100 per barrel goes to employees of the companies making the goods that the oil company buys.
- An oil company pays taxes. These taxes are used to fund many programs, including new roads, schools, and transfer payments to the elderly and unemployed. Again, these funds go to actual people, as wages, or as transfer payments to people who cannot work.
- An oil company pays dividends to stockholders. Some of the stockholders are individuals; others are pension funds, insurance companies, and other companies. Pension funds use the dividends to make pension payments to individuals. Insurance companies use the dividends to make insurance premiums affordable. One way or another, these dividends act to create benefits for individuals.
- Interest payments on debt go to bondholders or to the bank making the loan. Pension plans and insurance companies often own the bonds. These interest payments go to pay pension payments of individuals or to help make insurance premiums more affordable.
- A company may have accumulated profits that are not paid out in dividends and taxes. Typically, they are reinvested in the company, allowing more people to have jobs. In some cases, the value of the stock may rise as well.
When the price falls from $100 per barrel to $50 per barrel, the incomes of many people are adversely affected. This is a huge negative with respect to world economic growth.
If the price of oil drops from $100 per barrel to $50 per barrel, this change adversely affects the income of a large share of people who formerly benefited from the high price. Thus, the drop in oil prices affects the incomes of many of the people listed in the previous section.
Furthermore, this drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items. These workers are also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house. In some cases, they may even default on existing debt.
A drop in oil prices from $100+ per barrel to $50 per barrel leads to job layoffs by oil companies and their subcontractors. Oil companies and their subcontractors may even reduce dividends to shareholders.
While oil prices have recently been as low as $30 per barrel, the subsequent rise in prices to $50 per barrel is not enough to start adding new production. Prices are still far too low to encourage new development.
In 2016, other commodities besides oil have a problem with price below the cost of production.
Many commodities, including coal and natural gas, are currently affected by low prices. So are many kinds of metals, and some kinds of food commodities. Thus, there is pressure in a wide range of industries to lay off workers. There are many parts of the world now feeling recessionary forces.
As prices fall, the pressure is for high-cost producers to drop out. As this happens, the world’s ability to make goods and services falls. The size of the world economy tends to shrink. This shrinkage is clearly not good for a world economy that needs to grow in order for investors to earn a profit, and in order for debtors to repay debt with interest.
Growing demand comes from a combination of increasing wages and increasing debt.
The recent drop in oil prices from the $100+ level seems to come from inadequate demand for oil. This is equivalent to saying that oil at such a high price has not been affordable for a significant share of buyers. We can understand what might have gone wrong, by thinking about how demand for oil might be increased.
Clearly, one way of increasing demand is through increased productivity of workers. If this increased productivity allows wages to rise, this increased productivity can cycle back through the economy as increased demand for goods and services. We can think of the process as an “economic growth pump” that allows continued economic growth.
Generally, increased productivity of workers reflects the use of more capital goods, such as machines, vehicles, and buildings. These capital goods are made using energy products, and operate using energy products. Thus, energy consumption is an important part of the economic growth pump. These capital goods are frequently financed using debt, so debt is another important part of the economic growth pump.
Even apart from the debt necessary for financing capital goods, another way of increasing demand is by adding more debt. If a company adds more debt, it can often hire more workers and can add to its holdings of property. These also help raise the output of the company. As long as the output that is added is sufficiently productive that it can repay the added debt with interest, adding more debt tends to enhance the workings of the economic growth pump.
The way governments have attempted to encourage the use of increased debt in recent years is by decreasing interest rates. The reason this approach is used is because with a lower interest rate, a broader range of investments can seem to be profitable, after repaying debt with interest. Even very “iffy” investments, such as extraction of tight oil from the Bakken, can appear to be profitable.
The extent of the decrease in interest rates since 1981 has been amazingly large.
Figure 1. Ten year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.
Since 2008, additional steps have been taken to decrease interest rates even further. One of these is the use of Quantitative Easing. Another is the recent use of negative interest rates in Europe and Japan.
Falling demand would seem to suggest that the world’s economic growth pump is no longer working properly. This is happening, even with all of the post-1981 manipulations of interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowed capital, and thus reduce the required threshold for profitability of new investments.
What could cause the economic growth pump to stop working?
One possibility is that accumulated debt reaches too high a level, based on historical parameters. This seems to be happening now in many parts of the world.
Another thing that could go wrong is that the price of oil rises so high that capital goods based on oil are no longer cost effective for leveraging human labor. If this happens, manufacturing is likely to move to countries that use a cheaper mix of fuels, typically including more coal. The shift of manufacturing to China seems to reflect such a change.
A third thing that could go wrong is that pollution becomes too great a problem, forcing a country to slow down economic growth. This seems to be at least part of China’s current problem.
If oil prices drop from $100 to $50 per barrel, this has an adverse impact on debt levels.
With lower oil prices, workers are laid off, both from oil companies and from companies that provide goods and services to oil companies. These workers, in turn, are less able to take on new debt. In some cases, they may also default on their debt.
Oil companies with reduced cash flow are also less able to repay their debt. In some cases, companies may file for bankruptcy. The result is generally that existing debt is “written down.” Even if an oil company does not file for bankruptcy, it is likely to have difficulty adding new debt. The trend in the amount of debt outstanding is likely to change from increasing to decreasing.
As the amount of debt shifts from increasing to decreasing, the economy tends to shift from increasing to shrinking. Instead of adding more employees, companies tend to reduce the number of employees. If many commodities are affected, the impact can be very large.
We need oil prices to rise to $120 per barrel or more.
The current price of $50 per barrel is still way too low. A post I published in February 2014 was called Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. In it, I talked about an analysis by Steve Kopits of Douglas-Westwood. In this analysis, Kopits points out that even at that time–which was before oil prices began dropping in mid-2014–major oil companies were beginning to cut back on spending for new production. Their cost of production was at that time typically at least $120 or $130 per barrel, if prices were to be high enough so that companies could fund new development without adding huge amounts of new debt. Oil prices could perhaps be lower if oil companies could fund their operations using large increases in debt. Company management recognized that such a funding approach would not be prudent–it could lead to unmanageable debt levels.
Today’s cost of oil production is likely to be even higher than it was when Kopits’ analysis was performed in early 2014. If we expect oil production to continue to rise, we probably need oil prices in the $120 to $150 per barrel range for several years. Prices at such a level are likely to be way too high for consumers, because wages do not rise at the same time as oil prices. Consumers find that they need to cut back on discretionary expenditures. These spending cutbacks tend to lead to recession and falling oil prices.
We can think of our economy as being like a big ball, which can be pumped up to greater and greater size with either rising productivity or rising debt.
This process can continue to work, only as long as the debt added is sufficiently productive that it is possible to repay the debt with interest. We seem to be reaching the end of the line on this process. Returns keep falling lower and lower, necessitating ever-lower interest rates.
To some extent, the pumping up of oil prices that occurs in this process represents a lie, because the energy content of a barrel of oil remains unchanged, regardless of price. In fact, the energy of coal and of natural gas per unit of production remains unchanged as well. The value of energy products to society is determined by their physical ability to leverage human labor–for example, how far diesel oil can move a truck. This ability is unchanged, regardless of how expensive that oil is to produce. This is why, at some point, we find that high-priced energy products simply don’t work in the economy. If we spend the huge amount of resources required for the production of energy products, we don’t have enough resources left over for the rest of the economy to grow.
Low oil prices, plus low commodity prices of other kinds, seem to indicate that we are reaching the end of the line in the “pump up the economy with debt” approach. We have been using this approach since 1981. At this point, we have no idea what economy growth would look like, without the stimulus of falling interest rates.
The drop in oil prices and other commodity prices since mid-2014 seems to represent a “shrinking back” of our ability to use debt to raise prices to a level sufficient to cover the cost of extraction, plus associated overhead costs, including taxes. This drop in prices should be an alarm bell that something is seriously wrong. Without continuously rising prices, to keep up with ever-rising extraction costs, fossil fuel production will at some point come to a halt. Renewables will not work well either, because prices will not be high enough for them to be competitive.
Of course, once the economy stops growing, the huge amount of debt we have amassed becomes un-payable. The whole system we have built will begin to look more and more like a Ponzi Scheme.
We are blind to the possibility that oil prices of $50 per barrel may indicate that we are reaching “the end of the line.”
The popular belief is that everything will work out fine. Oil prices will rise a bit, and somehow the economy will get along with less fossil fuel. Somehow, we will make it through this bottleneck.
If we would study history, we would discover that there have been many situations of overshoot and collapse. In fact, those situations tend to look quite a bit like the situation we are seeing today:
- Falling resources per capita, because of rising population or exhaustion of resources
- Falling wages of non-elite workers; greater wage disparity
- Governments finding it increasingly difficult to fund needed programs
There is a popular belief that oil prices will rise, if there is a shortage of energy products. In prior collapses, it is not at all clear that prices have risen. We know that when ancient Babylon collapsed, demand for all products, even slaves, fell. If we are reaching collapse now, we should not be surprised if the prices of commodities, including oil, stay low. Alternatively, they might spike, but only briefly—not enough to really fix our current situation.
Too many wrong theories
Part of our problem is too much confidence that the “magic hand” of supply and demand will fix the economy. We don’t really understand how demand is tied into affordability, and how affordability is tied into wages and debt. We don’t realize that the view that oil prices can rise endlessly is more or less equivalent to the view that economic growth can continue indefinitely in a finite world.
Another part of our problem is failure to understand how the economic pump that keeps the economy operating works. Once debt rises too high, or the cost of energy extraction rises too high, we can no longer keep the system going. Price tends to fall below the cost of energy extraction. The quantity of energy products consumed cannot rise fast enough to keep the economic growth pump operating.
Clearly neoclassical economics doesn’t properly model how the economy really works. But the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) theory of Biophysical Economics does not model the current situation well, either. EROEI theory is generally focused on the ratio of Energy Returned by some alternative energy device to Fossil Fuel Energy Used by the same alternative energy device. This focus misses several important points:
- The quantity of energy consumed by the economy needs to keep rising, if human productivity is to keep growing, and thus allow the economy to avoid collapsing. EROEI calculations normally have little to say about the quantity of energy products.
- The quantity of debt required to produce a given amount of energy by an alternative energy device is very important. The more debt that is added, the worse the alternative energy device is for the economy.
- In order for the economic growth pump to keep working, the return on human labor needs to keep rising. This is equivalent to a need for the wages of non-elite workers to keep rising. This is a requirement relating to a different kind of EROEI—energy return on human labor, leveraged with various types of supplemental energy. Today’s EROEI theorists tend to overlook this type of EROEI.
EROEI theory is a simplification that misses several important parts of the story. While a high fossil fuel EROEI is necessary for an alternative to substitute for fossil fuels, it is not sufficient. Thus, EROEI analysis tends to produce “false favorable” results.
Lining up resources in order by their EROEIs seems to be a useful exercise, but, in fact, the cut-off likely needs to be higher than most have supposed, in order to keep total costs low enough so that the economy can really afford a given energy source. In addition, resources that add heavily to debt requirements are probably unhelpful, regardless of their calculated EROEIs.
Conclusion
We are certainly at a worrying point in history. Our networked economy is more complex than most researchers have considered possible. We seem to be headed for collapse because of low prices, rather than high. The base scenario of the 1972 book “The Limits to Growth,” by Donella Meadows and others, seems to indicate that the world will likely reach limits about the current decade.
The modeling done in 1972 laid out the basic situation, but could not be expected to explain precisely how collapse would occur. Now that we are reaching the expected timeframe, we can see more clearly what seems to be happening. We need to be examining what is really happening, rather than tying ourselves to outdated ideas of how the economic system works, and thus, what symptoms we should expect as we approach limits. It may be that $50 per barrel oil is one of the signs that collapse is not far away.
I am single handedly invading the Kingdom of DelusiSTAN — two provinces at the same time…. join me…
http://media.theiapolis.com/d4/hF9/i27UO/k4/l28Q5/u1/wZK/russell-crowe-as-maximus-in-gladiator-2000.jpg
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/13/why-us-coal-production-collapsed-to-lowest-level-since-1981/
and
https://mishtalk.com/2016/06/13/bnef-report-says-solar-energy-batteries-wind-will-dominate-fossil-fuel-usage-to-collapse/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
🙂
“In the wake of continuing technological revolution, human labor has officially been discounted, rendered obsolete and has become secondary in usefulness only. The effects of that truth are about to widely felt.”
http://www.activistpost.com/2016/06/bilderberg-2016-middle-class-tech-takeover.html
Aimless middle class is not good news!
Aimless? I would say useless. But that’s just me.
This is what BAU Lite looks like… grow or die. Those are the options.
Trading Floors Go Quiet Across Asia as Equity Desks Face the Axe
Even by the boom-bust standards of Asia’s equity business, it’s been a turbulent 12 months.
At this time last year, the industry was riding high as China’s stock market soared, volumes jumped to records and some of the biggest names in finance boosted hiring. Now, turnover is shrinking at the fastest pace since at least 2006 and banks are under growing pressure to either downsize their Asian equity desks, or exit parts of the business altogether.
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/ixIy0fYPUCLU/v4/-1x-1.png
Investors and issuers are retrenching after Chinese shares crashed, the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy and divisive political debates from the U.S. to Britain weighed on sentiment. Revenue from trading stocks in China and Hong Kong could fall 30 percent to 50 percent in the first half from a year earlier, according to senior executives at four firms who spoke on condition of anonymity. Equity derivatives sales in Asia are on track to drop at least 50 percent, while prime brokerage is down roughly 20 percent, two of the executives said.
“Because overall revenue is down, further cuts are likely across the industry,” said Taichi Takahashi, Asia-Pacific head of equities at UBS Group AG in Hong Kong. “Some second-tier players will throw in the towel because their market share is shrinking.”
Sinking Turnover
Asian equities units could be facing their worst year since 2012, when the European credit crisis roiled markets, according to two of the executives interviewed for this story, who asked not to be identified because global banks don’t break out results for regional equities operations.
Revenue for the industry in Asia slumped 32 percent to $2.6 billion in the first quarter from a year earlier, compared with a 20 percent drop worldwide, according to estimates from Coalition, a banking research firm. Regional equities headcount dropped by about 300, or 6 percent, Coalition figures show.
Turnover on Asia’s 10 biggest exchanges has declined 69 percent from last year’s peak in May, the deepest slump over any period of the same length since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2006. Equity capital markets deals have also slowed, with Asia playing host to just two billion-dollar initial public offerings this year.
Investment banks geared to Asian stocks, including UBS, Societe Generale SA and Credit Suisse Group AG, will probably underperform, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts led by Kian Abouhossein wrote in a May 19 research note.
More http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-12/trading-floors-go-quiet-across-asia-as-equity-desks-face-the-ax
Sounds like lack of demand for securities, doesn’t it?
http://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-expensive-gamble-on-renewable-energy-1409106602
See the nasty graph comparing German power costs to the US.
Perhaps ‘renewable’ energy is CIA plan to undermine Germany industry (sarc).
Let us bow our heads to the Green God…. and appease him by sacrificing our hard earned tax dollars by building more Green Temples in his honour….
Hail the Green God. All powerful. All wonderful.
Now fellow stinky hippies … let us open the organic popcorn…. slowly dance around the campfire…. hold hands… and sing a hymn….
FE, you have convinced me the FED is my friend. If anyone is singing Kumbaya it is the FED and friends. We all like BAU, so if you listen carefully you will hear me singing along.
The interests of the owners of the Fed are in total alignment with ours.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4f609788eab8eaf81100003b-1190-625/bernanke-the-hero.jpg
Yeah, a hero of the useless hordes of mindless FF wasting consumerists.
Yep those same ones that allow you to eat and pay your bills.
And real soon now, the mindles consumerists will be a lot fewer. Then BAU 4.0 will emerge from the ashes, are you in or out?
Perhps too vested and busy clinging on to your broken beliefs and prepping for a non event. There is a lot of prestige at play here.
Another thing to think about. Just think about it.
Waiting for collapse is like waiting to turn 80 years old. No disrespect to the elderly, they must have done something right to make it that far. But if you wait your entire life for that moment, then you have pretty much wasted your life.
Same thing with collapse, folks. It’s a process, like getting old. It’s not an event. There isn’t going to be one event, one trigger and then it’s over.
If you aren’t out there embracing industrial life to its fullest…chasing women (or chasing men), keeping the lights on at all hours, driving all over the place, taking long, hot baths, losing yourself in food and drink, making more fiat money, buying all sorts of consumer products, having fun watching the beautiful and athletic people entertain you, doing crazy things and watching other people doing crazy things…you are wasting the one life you have at the peak of human civilization.
You think other people care for one millisecond that you are hoarding beans and bullets, talking about peak oil and climate change on internet blogs, and working your behind off on a farmstead somewhere?
Tick tock, tick tock.
Then you get bored and turn your ship to these dark waters to share your reflections in a black mirror.
Everything gets boring after a while. Perhaps except spending time in nature, studying and learning new things. Maybe it is the hunter-gatherer inside me who is tired of the bread and circuses of BAU.
Dolph, It’s probably near impossible to watch the clock waiting for collapse so I’m sure even the dourest of folks find joy where they can. In 2008 during the mortgage meltdown my step brother ran into a lot of trouble losing his great paying job and not being able to find a replacement job, the house mortgage defaulted losing his huge estate, his various pets just happened to perish at the same time, and a couple that had remodeled part of his estate and were living there had to walk away from their investment. I offered up some advice: Go try to find some joy in your life. He took that advice by getting in touch with an old girlfriend who has a son and living with them. Life marches for everybody. Good advice – live your lives to the fullest.
Well said.
My advice — if it makes you feel better – is to purchase a 20 foot container — fill it with whatever you think will be helpful — put a lock on it – and forget it.
Then get on with life with the knowledge that you will not die of old age.
And continue reading and posting on FW so as to not go insane in a world that is more insane by the day.
“you are wasting the one life you have at the peak of human civilization”
This idea is insane. It is a common insanity. It is a insanity that does not lead to happiness. Happiness comes from simple things. The chase of things lest one “wastes one life”. is a inherently flawed concept. This insane concept accepts the madison ave version of what will make a individual happy. There are other things in the world besides humans. What about their lives? Happiness comes from caring. If you feel empathy caring and love no amount of hedonistic pleasure even comes close. If you feel empathy caring and love all your hedonistic consumption will feel hollow empty and pleasure less in comparison.
You do need the basics though–food, water, enough heat to keep from freezing, a few clothes.
True. But there is a pretty wide spread between our current consumption and the basics. Worse, much of that spread is the sort of consumption that takes time and resources away from more fulfilling pursuits.
I can’t really come up with a better industry to blame for this state of affairs than advertising.
This book documents your claim pretty well (and cites to numerous prior work that support the thesis): https://www.amazon.com/Collision-Course-Endless-Growth-Finite/product-reviews/0262027739/
It is more subtle than that. Controlling mass media is much more effective in steering the sheeple to buy sh1t they don’t need with monies they don’t have.
Like every halfwit with a house nowadays just “have” to renovate their house, borrowing like there’s no tomorrow (that part is probably correct, though), after a season of Swedish “the angry carpenter”.
Please tell me angry carpenter is not an original swedish show. Never seen it but seen parts of angry cook and angry entreprenour and angry financial consultant, I thought it was an international franschise.
DJ, Dunno, the think-tank nailing together these shenanigans could be located anywhere.
Maybe the Angry Doomer could be something?
We just need to find someone who could rabidly attack anyone over anything.
Yes, I think I have an idea who would be the perfect lead character candidate.
😉
Dear Name (required);
Very nicely put. I agree.
On the other hand, there are people that still think the hedonistic life is the life for them. If you have been there and done it, or if you never needed to, the homestead is just fine. Someone mentioned working hard on the farm as a bad thing … What do you bet that person has a gym membership?
Sincerely,
Pintada
pokemon: “That is; BAU without FE is still viable?”
BAU without world economy increasing energy consumption rate isn’t possible. More people means higher chances of increasing energy consumption rate. So killing 10 million random people wouldn’t destroy BAU, but killing 1 billion would.
Thanks for agreeing with my postulate. A BAU without FE is indeed possible. Perhaps not the best choise, since he seem quite entrepreneurial and resourceful.
I am of the opinion that a way to increse the energy effiency and real economic growth of BAU is by plugging the energy waste by reducing the amount of people on earth.
Your point of view is fairly mainstream and it’s completely wrong.
Your point of view is based on hubris than any real evidence.
Reducing the number of people on Earth doesn’t make BAU
sustainable and hurts your argument that technology will the resource problem.
If you disagree with me please be prepared with real evidence from respectable sources. Otherwise, please stop posting what I’m going to call for a lack of a better term, lies.
Where did I state that any configuration of BAU is sustainable?
You clearly haven’t been able to follow my reasoning and now you retort to blatant attacks.
If you accuse me of lies, the burden of proof falls upon you. In the mean time – chill out.
pokemon says:”Where did I state that any configuration of BAU is sustainable?”
Pokemon writes “I am of the opinion that a way to increse the energy effiency and real economic growth of BAU is by plugging the energy waste by reducing the amount of people on earth.”
The fact that you want to economic growth to continue means that you are ,advocating for a version of BAU that is more sustainable. Your extensive advocacy for space travel is BAU on steroids.
“You clearly haven’t been able to follow my reasoning ”
Your reasoning is pretty simple. You think BAU is sustainable if we just try harder.
The first post I saw by you you stated that the main thing that is preventing humans from traveling in Outer Space is that our IQs aren’t high enough.
“hat is if not productivity and energy efficiency can keep it at bay. These are low hanging fruits at first, but as we approach the thermodynamical limits, more research and engineering efforts are needed to extract additional useful work from each energy unit.
However, we are also reaching the limits of human mental capabilities. Which is why we probably are witnessing large investments into computer learning and cognition. ”
You think our limits are currently human mental capabilities to build and manage increasingly more complex high tech, and have less to do with resources.
You think thermodynamic limits can be overcome with more engineering efforts.
You think the laws of thermodynamics can be overcome with more engineering.
If you don’t think BAU is sustainable, why are you advocating for more high technology and more economic growth? Why would you even propose space travel schemes if BAU is unsustainable? Space travel is not a solution to anything.
Space travel is hopium for the masses, especially the high-tech loving masses like those in the USA. I used to be among that number. It wasn’t fun to recognize it for what it was and is.
The output of BAU 4.0 will be purchased by the productive machinery, including humans and corporations. It is still not being sustainable. Just a far more interesting economic, energy and technological system than the current one.
Today far too much of the output is being “flared off” by nonproductive humans and by the FED propped up corporations that employ them.
What you are describing is BAU Lite — a new slimmed down, more efficient and improved version of BAU — which is completely impossible.
The system grows or it collapses into a very primitive state (a world without toothbrushes).
Those are the options.
And as you can see by the actions of the masters of the universe — they understand that — that is why they are clawing at the cliff with broken and bleeding finger nails to keep us from falling into the abyss.
If it were otherwise then they would have put Plan B into action in 2008 — or even earlier — why share the earth with useless feeders hoi polloi when one can live in the company of gods breathing fresh air, flying to Jupiter on a whim, and riding stallions through pristine forests while chatting on your gold plated iphone?
FE, my iPhone already is gold plated on the inside, to protect it from corrosion.
My drill bits are diamond tipped to reduce wear on them.
But nowhere do I carry valuable materials to show off.
You see… that is your problem … you need to show the glitter to get the girls….
What makes you think I’m into girls?
pokemon says “”Where did I state that any configuration of BAU is sustainable? ”
pokemon says “Thus: BAU 5.0 will be the age of the thinking machine”
People who generally believe that BAU is sustainable believe that computers will become so complex that they can actually think like humans.
“If you accuse me of lies, the burden of proof falls upon you..”
pokemon says “. Sparing the bare and and viable minimum of people opeating the necessary machinery for maintaining BAU.
BAU might be sensitive and fragile, but if you have the know how, the excesses can be removed for a leaner and more robust future.
BAU to the stars.”
” In the mean time – chill out”
I still can’t tell if you’re trolling or you have an undisclosed mental condition that makes you involuntarily forget what you type.
And your point is? Or maybe just feeling the need to rant?
We could just mock you until you leave….
Multiple personalities? One is unaware of the other one?
Oh FE, I seriously doubt you got the credentials and imagination to mock me in a meaningful way. Now get back prepping.
Now answer me, is BAU feasible without your existence or not? 😉
The devil is always in the detail…. however in DelusiSTAN if you can imagine it then it can happen — it will happen. It does not matter that it is impossible — it does not matter if you can support an assertion with facts — facts don’t matter.
I understand that Sarah Palin is the leader of DelusiSTAN.
Apparently she is also the person who chooses the winner of the best new ridiculous idea competition on DelusiSTAN Idol.
Is realitySTAN possible without FE, yes or no?
Let us all now stop bein obstinate and rationally accept the fact that there is indeed a lower bound of the BAU population – the BAU “Lite” without FE.
And so the Mathematical induction starts until we reach a minimum viable population.
Case closed.
With zero logic to back up the position the case for BAU Lite is officially closed.
BAU Lite is hereby determined to be classified under Koombaya. Along with solar panels, windmills, thorium, EV’s, and Mars colonies.
Fast Eddy presiding.
FE – The obstinate collapster.
May I ask, how old are you?
BAU Lite is a hunter/gatherer society.
I agree – we just need to redefine this term going forward.
BAU = Business As Usual
We could call it the New BAU…. which eventually will become the norm — so we can drop New.
New BAU = picking berries, throwing stones at birds and other edible animals, squatting in the bush to take a dump using leaves as TP, roasting food over a fire made by striking flint on dry leaves, and so on….
http://assets.survivalinternational.org/pictures/265/braz-yano-fw-32_screen.jpg
Let us rejoice in the brutal coldness of logic, a final lesson before school’s out for summer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZKa1S1wPy4
😉
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBEcLxnXVAc
🙂
As a final deductive logic examination: Is BAU viable after FE and Greg both kicks the air addiction?
If Yes:
Then what conclusion follows?
If No:
Here’s a conundrum:
Given the number of people we now have, it will require even more people to feed them–for all food must be produced by hand.
@Pokemon
Gail and others reasoning, as I understand it, goes something like this:
“The financial system is a ponzi scheme in which money is loaned into existence with the expectation it is paid back with interest. Given that money is a claim on future energy, the financial system cannot survive unless the amount of energy being used continues to increase. This is clearly impossible in a finite world and therefore the financial system must collapse. When the financial system collapses the faith in money goes with it and all trade ceases. Without trade BAU is impossible in our interconnected world.”
As “name” writes, significantly reducing the number of people would crash the financial system. Perhaps you believe a new financial system can arise and trade continue when the current system collapses?
There are too many assumptions.
What does one mean with “significantly reducing”? It can be anything from merely the death of FE to a 95% decrease of the world population. Nobody knows.
I am of the belief that wasting excess hydrocarbons contribute negatively to the economy. In fact it is detrimental as it causes energy prices and pollution to increase while reducing work that can be performed by productive machinery, such as humans. It has to stop.
BAU will prevail until heat death.
I don’t see any wastage… I see a nearly perfect 1:1 correlation…. what incredible efficiency!
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/04/world-gdp-compared-to-energy-consumption.png
Ah, FE the numerical fiddler. The man, the myth. the uncrowned correlator of graphs. Oh, what would mathematics be without you. The ayatollah of collapse drama.
You see, I’m proposing that with a more efficient BAU, that is the version without you flaring off the excesses, the vertical (y-scale) would instead read 0 – 160 instead of 0-80 by now.
Fast Eddy, Gail, pokeman,
This curve clearly shows that the economy got exponentially more efficient up until the 2000’s, onward it regresses and becomes a linear curve.
From this graph, it is impossible to deduce exactly how energy efficient the economy is, only that it used to be improving up until the 2000’s.
Also, if the return on investment isn’t high enough not, what makes us think that in the new financial system, the return will be any better. High cost energy doesn’t work to operate the system.
It does not need to be any better. Even a piss poor return is better than chaos. High cost energy does not work to operate the current system.
I don’t think that a new energy system could be designed and built that would provide even a piss poor return.
The new system’s viability depends on how efficiently we can turn energy into useful work.
Not only how effective we are at burning it, doing basically nothing. Wouldn’t you agree?
I believe that Santa Claus is going to deliver a Lear jet with all expenses paid till the end of BAU to allow me to complete my bucket list in style.
That puts us both in the position of having to provide details supporting our beliefs.
I will admit…. I have nothing to support this belief….
Yes, because you are making a ridiculous postulate. What is there to discuss?
Now for a simpler postulate. I propose that BAU will go on just fine without FE. Now, is that a ridiculous statement?
After accepting my postulate, what conclusion follows?
Nice response Pokemon!
Why is my belief ridiculous? Oh right — because it is a belief — I have no facts to back up my claim.
As you can see – that places us both in the same boat.
No it doesn’t.
Feel it, admit it, suck it. You are:
Wrong.
Pokemon, it would be fun to see FE in a genuine Lady or the Tiger situation. Where there is a severe penalty for being wrong, it all changes.
There is a creeping mind virus that convinces people that objective reality is a political decision.
And, it is becoming endemic.
Indeed, just because one extrapolates and follow the logical conclusion of where a doctrine might lead does not necessarily make neither the doctrine nor the outcome of the process which it dictates, a part of, as you conclude, objective reality.
But it is kind of cute with this anonymous and obstinate naïvety.
It’s just a question of how quickly I can hit the delete button now.
FE, let there be rock!
Blame OPEC for US difficulties and enforce fracking worldwide.
Is that serious? (or did I misunderstand?)
http://secureenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/SAFE-National-Strategy-for-Energy-Security-2016.pdf
Even if they now seem to recognize the role of œil-price in 2008 GFC, it’s explained in a strange l’année ; see P.146 of the report:
“However, such production cuts are not limited only to the high-pro le crises of the 1970s. Despite talk of Saudi Arabia’s response to the oil spike of 2008, in which increased production prompted relief from high prices, it is often overlooked that the road leading to prices of nearly $150 per barrel in July 2008 was paved with supply cuts from OPEC nations. In particular, Saudi Arabia cut its oil output drastically in 2006 and 2007, recording seven consecutive quarters of year-over-year decreases (Figure 78). The drastic increase in global oil prices was a contributing factor to the Great Recession that began in 2008, and any price relief instilled by renewed production increases were scant comfort as the United States lost more than 5 percent of its GDP, the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.”
You can jump to the general conclusion, for a breathe of perplexity:
“The United States remains heavily dependent on oil to power its economy. Despite an environment of abundance, this dependence acts as double-edged sword, leaving the nation vulnerable to price shocks and crippling economic consequences, while also sti ing innovation and su ocating the development of advanced technologies.
For the past two years, Saudi Arabia and its allies have orchestrated
a strategy to drive down prices and undermine non-OPEC oil production. Although the e ciency, resilience, and responsiveness
of U.S. shale production helps blunt the negative impact of OPEC’s strategy, output is being materially a ected. Moreover, investment in exploration and production are experiencing an unprecedented retreat due to lower oil prices, and the market appears certain to rebalance with very little spare production capacity available.
The global oil trends at work—rising consumption, OPEC overproduction, non-OPEC underinvestment, and high levels of instability in oil-producing countries and regions—all increase the likelihood of an oil crisis in the coming years that could, like oil shocks of the past, plunge the U.S. economy into deep recession. The odds in favor of a crisis are further heightened by the rise of terrorist movements expressly committed to targeting critical elements of the world’s vulnerable oil production and delivery infrastructure and hostile state actors willing to use oil as a strategic weapon against the United States.
The innovation revolution occurring in advanced fuel technologies, as well as driverless vehicle technologies, holds the potential to wean the United States away from its oil addiction. Combined with increasing domestic oil production and measures to reduce OPEC’s in uence over the global oil price, this revolution can substantially improve U.S. energy security.
Many of the solutions put forth for consideration by the Council
will require years to mature, but present the possibility of a radically transformed economy and society. Market forces alone will not sustain their development, especially if the world continues to experience unpredictable and volatile oil prices exacerbated by market manipulation. Government engagement will be necessary to align private interests in the service of the nation and ultimately promote fuel choice and competition in the U.S. transportation sector. The Council endorses the goal of reducing oil’s share of transportation miles from 92 percent today to 50 percent by 2040 as an important national target that will help substantially strengthen the U.S. economy.
We are con dent that Americans will support a bipartisan and open- minded campaign to make the nation more energy secure. Let this campaign to reduce oil dependence be the first test of this patriotic belief.”
Yes, I think “belief” is the proper word.
Sorry for French auto-correction.
“œil price” = Oil price
“strange l’année” = strange manner
Also a problem with the letter “f” copied from the pdf.
Saudi oil exports seems to have fallen by 2 million barrels per day from 2005 to 2010 while
the production seems to fallen with 1 million barrels per day during the same time.
http://www.energyinsights.net/cgi-script/csArticles/uploads/85/Saudi-Arabia-Peak-Oil-Production-Decline-Exports.gif
OPEC’s production seems to have fallen with 1 million barrel per day during the same time from 31 million barrels to 30 million barrels per day. The rig count seems to have doubled from 350 to 700 from 1999 to 2007.
http://greenecon.net/wp-content/uploads/2008/03/opec_oil.jpg
OPEC’s oil exports seems to have rising until the financial crisis.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/OPEC-Exports.png
Non OPEC’s exports seems to have been declining since 2004.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Non-OPEC-Exports.png
It doesn’t look to me that OPEC is waging a war against the U.S. It almost looks as if OPEC is pumping for its life to provide the world with oil.
Nice work digging that up. If fracking was a response to peak conventional … it would make sense that conventional is in decline….
This is some years old…..
THE DECLINE OF THE WORLD’S MAJOR OIL FIELDS
Aging giant fields produce more than half of global oil supply and are already declining as group, Cobb writes. Research suggests that their annual production decline rates are likely to accelerate. http://www.csmonitor.com/Environment/Energy-Voices/2013/0412/The-decline-of-the-world-s-major-oil-fields
Thanks Eddy, great article. I clicked on the link in the article and it opened the study it referred to.
http://www.postpeakliving.com/files/shared/Hook-GOF_decline_Article.pdf
Would you sleep better if you knew that you had some uneconomic shale oil and tar-sands to fall back on to keep the gas and coal production alive to maintain some form of civilization when the global oil production collapses ?
The bonus on top is that you can close the nuclear reactors safely and look after the spent fuel ponds.
Yes, thanks Yoshua for your comment.
What frightens me is that they seem really determined to implement such crazy “solution” worldwide and use “whatever it takes” in this purpose…
I say, it is much better to plug the wasteful flaring.
It is time to ditch the unproductive hordes and put BAU in overdrive.
Pokemon,
I’m not good at handling nonsensical arguments, sorry.
Let me clarify; it is better to decimate the population and revert back to cheaper sources and higher quality of energy than to prop up a crumbilng paradigm of mindless inefficiencies, energy waste, consumerism and overproduction.
Pokemon,
That’s what will happen anyway, so why worry? (Or dream up?)
NB: it’s a rhetorical question that doesn’t call any answer from you (please!)
How do the world raise oil prices to keep producers from going bankrupt, at the same time as “oil’s share of transportation miles from 92 percent today to 50 percent by 2040”?
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/americas/cowboy-lassoes-wouldbe-bike-thief-in-car-park-34792695.html
dolph, here’s to having fun with it, with an article about a cowboy lassoing a bicycle thief around the ankles. Gotta love it!
Yeah this is the kind of thing that’s interesting. Completely banal yet it is news.
I’m telling you, you have to look for collapse in out of the way places and things. If you wait for the angry men in v8 interceptors or motorbikes to arrive and kill everyone and that is “collapse” then you will be sorely disappointed.
Here’s the problem you guys have. I know, I used to have it myself.
You people live in reality. That’s your mistake. You keep insisting over and over that reality matters. That energy and materials and food and debt levels and population and oil production and ppm CO2 (or choose whatever metric you like) matters.
And what I’m telling you guys is, it doesn’t matter. You see, the very development our systems…communication, mass media, computer graphics, entertainment, etc., means that human beings no longer inhabit what you might call reality. Our minds are now plugged in, most of the time, to unreality. To the world of images and screens, of actors and drama, of fantasy and science fiction. That’s actually the mental space the people around you are inhabiting. I think deep down, you guys know this is true, and it contributes to your feeling of isolation.
This is what doom looks like! It’s dystopia. It’s a never ending dystopia of unreality, where people are plugged into a wonderland matrix of perpetually expanding artificial mental space, kept alive on industrially processed foodstuffs.
It’s not going away any time soon. You are wasting your time with this, and wasting your time trying to change it, as well. This thing has a momentum of its own, and it has to play itself out, burn itself out, over the coming decades.
Have fun with it. Just do what you want to do. You get to live at the apex, at the beginning of the end, of this experiment called human civilization. And you know, it was always going to end this way. It’s much better than being alive 1000 years ago, and probably better than being alive 100 years from now.
Just roll with the dystopia, with the decline. Don’t obsess, there’s nothing you can do. It’s not up to us, it’s up to the people 100 years from now, if they even exist, to try to make sense of it.
Ayn Rand was bit batty…. but she did leave us with some outstanding quotes… one comes to mind when I read you post:
‘We can ignore reality — but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality’
In this case we can pretend that the video game and facebook are reality — but when the electricity goes off – and the shops empty – forever — the video games and facebook end too…
And we get to starve and die. That will be very real.
Fast Eddy, your comment about the video games reminds me of something a friend suggested about ten years ago. We were playing Grand Turismo on the PS2. He suggested that that would be the only way we would be driving cars soon. I laughed. I did not tell him why I laughed, but I was thinking that we would not be playing video games, either. No game consoles, no televisions, no computers. No banks, no food in the supermarkets, no water delivered through the taps in homes. No get it now special deal hire purchase on things we don’t really need but many people have learned to believe they need. Anyway, we all know here that the list goes on. Pretending to drive cars on the television screen is not important. Oxygen, water, food, shelter, energy are what count, and the well being of oneself and one’s family. Though, having said that, the economies we have built require that we believe we need the video games and televisions so that people have jobs making and selling them in order to have the money to spend on what we try to sell them.
Primitive living…. that’s where it will be at…
It ain’t for me though — I haven’t got the skills nor do I have any interest in living without my darling BAU
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ZuzPtYHh5mU/V1lQB9nO8gI/AAAAAAAAQWA/NDACqiTF70wp2-5eoyJ69q2-0McmdrgvACLcB/s1600/scafetta2012.PNG
Looking at that graph, you can see how the anti-GW prediction of flat to cooling global temperature was way off. The reality is temperature is beginning to hockey stick. The order goes this way; CO2 hockey sticks up, followed by methane doing the same, followed by temperature. That process is data confirmed from previous events in Earth’s history.
Get ready for a wild ride!
Just to clarify, the prediction was not flat to cooling, but the lower prediction was for a slow rise in temp. and the upper prediction was for a faster rise in temperature, but the reality is shown by dots for 2015 avg. and 2016 jan-apr. If that trajectory continues temperature will continue to spike.
It would be very nice if the world would stay warm. Lord knows the end of BAU will be traumatic enough to go through without the added misery of freezing our butts off once the firewood runs out.
However, we’ve just had an El Niño, which was bound to raise the global temperature averages. And this El Niño is bound to be followed swiftly by a La Niña, which is certain to send the temperature average down again in 2017/18. I expect we shall see a Seneca cliff in energy production, food production and gross planetary product well before we see the emergence of anything resembling a hockey stick in the real actual genuine global average temperature record.
Incidentally, the term “hockey stick” was coined Jerry Mahlman to describe the pattern shown by the Mann, Bradley & Hughes 1999 (MBH99) temperature reconstruction, envisaging a graph that is relatively flat with a downward trend to 1900 forming the “shaft” followed by a sharp, steady increase corresponding to the “blade”. The absence of that sharp, steady increase from actual temperature records has been such a major embarrassment for Big Climate that the graph no longer adorns IPCC reports and it is considered extremely rude these days even to mention the phrase “hockey stick” within the alarmist fraternity.
Bond markets hit by economic worries
By Andrew Walker
BBC World Service economics correspondent
‘Supernova’
Some experts fear that it is already damaging the commercial banks. They think it could all go horribly wrong when interest rates rise.
One called it “a supernova that will explode one day”.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36498658
Gross: Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day
https://twitter.com/JanusCapital/status/740907764046659584?lang=en-gb
Think about 1/i, when i=interest is negative. The value of assets rises very high when i is a very small positive number. When i is a negative number, the value of assets would seem to turn negative. Not the only problem, though.
Dmitry Orlov writes about the issue. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2016/06/the-money-cult.html?spref=fb
** NIRP **
Just read the very good article by Dmitry Orlov you linked about Negative Interest Rates, and found some sound arguments in it. Mostly appreciated its nuance, because it vaguely seems to me that such a policy is not totally stupid if its purpose is to accompany a progressive destruction (at least a shrinkage) of the economy.
Parts of the economy are diseppearing, like it or not (because of increasing energy costs), so it looks wise to adapt our monetary system to this state of things.
Now, simply plugging NIRP measures on an existing fiat system and without deeply modifying banking rules doesn’t appear very wise, but I’m not competent to discuss this aspect.
Yet, my take-away from D.Orlov’s article is:
“But what I mean is something slightly more profound: negative interest rates erode the very concept of money.”
It reminded me the early 20th century theories of Frederick Soddy and -mostly- Silvio Gesell about “melting money” or “rusty money”, that loses its value along time, instead of magically increasing in value like today (“by the strange power of compound interest”, as said Keynes).
This principle, aiming to increase the velocity and limit the accumulation of money, seems to give positive results when applied to local currencies, but, again, I have no idea about the consequences if applied to the global monetary system.
Maybe it mitigates the negative impacts of defaults and thus allows the famous can to be kicked a little bit farther, but still, if the banks are losing money, it cannot be a long term policy.
Then I found this article by FEASTA’s Graham J.Barnes (cross-posted by RE on the Doomstead Diner, thanks again!):
“The Strange Idea of Negative Interest”, that gives yet other points of view about this topic. I paste here the intro only, and recommend you to read it entirely:
“This article addresses the role of demurrage (negative interest) in the design of new currencies. But it takes a roundabout route with diversions around the zero and negative interest rates being currently applied to fiat money; and a detour via positive interest which is itself a stranger idea than we have been led to believe. It suggests that demurrage is worth a place in the designer’s kitbag, but not for the reason normally postulated.”
http://www.feasta.org/2016/04/13/the-strange-idea-of-negative-interest/
I’ve not invesigated very deeply, but in the end of the day it seems to me that, if it can work for local currencies, it doesn’t fit in with a global system, unless we completely revise it, which won’t happen.
Hopefully (for whom?) NIRP will be able to delay some financial accidents, or hide some losses for a while, but we should expect some “unintended consequences” to eventually happen. We live in an energy world, not a monetary one.
I think that in some sense we do live in a monetary system. If we are to have capital goods that are made using energy products, and that use energy products, we need to have debt. Negative interest rates are a way of erasing some of that debt. The question is whether the system can hold together with this change in rules. Planning for the future becomes very difficult.
Yes Gail,
But I meant “in last resort”.
That said, monetary tricks and (ab-)use of debt can certainly delay some issues (but not avoid them, IMO).
Superb article – thanks
‘Nor can you produce money on your own, because that right is reserved for Mammon’s high priests, the bankers. Making your own money makes you a heretic, and gets you the modern equivalent of being burned at the stake, which is a $250,000 fine and a 20-year prison sentence’
The El-ders shall be referred to as the High Priests going forward 🙂
Priests & Debt
Another view:
“Am I attempting to claim that germs do not exist? Of course not. Am I attempting to claim that science has produced nothing of value? Of course not. I am simply suggesting that civilized life has not rid the world of demons, but merely shifted the demons we concern ourselves with. Priests have not gone out of fashion, to be sure, they just wear a different costume and spin incantations of a new variety. This class of priests extends far beyond the realm of economics, and the demons they promise to exorcise can be found anywhere uncertainty and fear have taken root. The simple fact is that life is a dangerous pursuit, and we all enter into it with a debt. We owe our lives and will all be held to account sooner or later. If we do not create cultures capable of accepting this most basic truth, we will invariably create cultures that attempt to mitigate our fear of death with palliatives. The palliative du jour in our particular civilization is technological domination of the ecological systems of the Earth, and it is this behavior that is responsible for the variety of cataclysms now unfolding globally. Sea ice melt, top soil loss, forest die offs, oceanic dead zones, mass extinction of species, climatic disruption; all have now long passed the formative stage and are well underway.”
From a post by TDoS at Prayforcalamity, or on https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2016/03/31/a-demon-haunted-world/
From the TDoS post, Fast Eddy will appreciate this comment.
Thanks for that — why don’t we just copy the whole lot onto FW:
Sorry, but what we are discussing here is trivia in the scheme of things. I’ll try and explain:
Unfortunately I work in the nuclear industry. I don’t think people quite understand how dangerous nuclear energy is particularly if reactors are left unattended due to some catastrophe. If they knew the truth they would be terrified.
I blame certain so called “Green” movements for that. When I read their anti-nuclear stance I’m not surprised that many people have a sort of Ho Hum approach to nuclear. It’s almost deliberate misinformation. They telling you the trivia and avoiding the truly scary parts.
Nuclear energy is a ticking extinction level time bomb. If the preppers understood this they would stop prepping because it’s pointless. Many people imagine that if a nuclear reactor is left unattended for whatever reason, say global pandemic, that nuclear reactors have a fail safe shut down. That’s primary Myth number one.
They don’t.
They scram which is the insertion of control rods into the core to stop criticality. However the core is still super hot and radioactive. It requires cooling and it takes months to cool down. This is an active management process requiring human involvement and lots of cooling water being pumped around the core. In the US they are required to keep 24 hours worth of backup diesel to run the cooling systems.
None have more than a few days worth. There is no backup plan for an unmanned reactor, period. So within a few days of being unattended the core becomes exposed. Decay heat will cause meltdown and breach of containment. Huge amounts of radiation will be released into the atmosphere and into ground water. There are 99 reactors in the US alone!
Giant myth number 2: Nuclear waste is radioactive stuff that you stick in the ground in concrete barrels. It might leak a little but I’ll be ok. Wrong. HLW is extremely dangerous and will meltdown if cooling systems fail. It’s kept in cooling pools because of decay heat. There may be a couple of tons of radioactive fuel in a reactor.
There can be hundreds of tons in a single HLW cooling pool. Many of them right next to the reactor! As of today there are 99 nuclear reactors in the US and many more HLW cooling pools. France has 58 reactors. Globally there is around 225,000 tons of HLW in cooling pools. There is simply no where to hide on the planet and no way to survive if even a fraction of this amount melts down.
So in a nutshell Nuclear energy is based on one fatal assumption. That no catastrophe will strike mankind and the reactors will always be manned. History has proven how ludicrous this assumption is. We have in effect built a Doomsday machine. If any catastrophe strikes the globe or even just the US or France for example, it is quite literally the end. To be clear. Death by radiation poisoning is one of the worst if not the worst death a human could experience. I pray to God people wake up and something is done about this.
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2016/03/31/a-demon-haunted-world/#comment-50589
We will assume this fellow is who he says he is — because his assessment ties into the findings I have found in the many hours of research on this topic.
I totally agree – prepping is pointless.
All it will do is keep one around to suffer through cancer a little longer than everyone else.
I don’t put much effort or thought into the prepper gig … it is futile (even without the nuclear issue). The lock is on the container suffice to say.
Of course I would never tell Mrs Fast about what I know —- actually I absolutely never speak of the upcoming problems at all as it just creates anxiety …. I envy her ability to completely block this out and go on with life as if death was not growling and panting at the door….
In many ways this is fantastic news! No need to worry about having to pull a tooth with a pair of pliers … no need to fret about starving… no need to worry about being too cold or too hot… no need to worry about being enslaved — about your wife/daughter being raped…
Nope. This is freedom. Absolute freedom from stress..
And if you think about death what is so bad about it other than the fact that you leave people behind.
Fortunately nobody gets left behind. Everyone you have ever known and cared for — will also die.
It’s like a giant Jim Jones Purple Kool-Aid Party!
And shhhheee-it … you can even play koombaya over and over again — it does not matter — all sins are forgiven …
This is the Big One:
Not sure if my other comment made it but yes — that confirms this is an extinction event.
Absolutely
Almost certainly. I’ve suspected that since long before I’d heard of OFW and your good self.
Anyone who doubts the danger posed by radioactivity should watch the movie The Day After. Take special note of the comment at the end stating the reality would likely be far worse than depicted in the film. Then realise that the fission/fusion reaction in a nuclear bomb lasts a fraction of a second as compared to the world’s four hundred plus nuclear reactors where the fusion reaction takes place for decades. As Fast Eddy has posted, the radioactivity in the spent fuel ponds is millions of times that released by a nuclear bomb.
Realise also that the radioactive waste remains lethal for thousands of years and even now when resources are still plentiful there is little effort being made to safely dispose of it. Even if there are no accidents or EMP attacks, and by some miracle during collapse all the reactors and spent fuel ponds can be cooled for a sufficiently long time to prevent any meltdowns, it’s guaranteed due to sea level rise that most of the radioactivity will eventually end up in the oceans. The good news is that phytoplankton are highly resistant to radioactivity, but dolphins are definitely on borrowed time.
I’m not so clear on the extent to which all land and groundwater will become contaminated if meltdowns are avoided. Perhaps land at higher elevations can remain inhabitable by humans?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yif-5cKg1Yo
My desire to bucket list is becoming increasingly urgent … tick tock goes the clock…. need to get on the phone to the Iranian embassy in Wellington….
“But you don’t understand — I need a visa right now — I cannot wait — the world is about to end and we are all going to die!!! Call the Ayatollah if you have to — tell him it’s Fast Eddy — yes that is Fast Eddy from New Zealand – I need him to Fast track the visa…. he wants what from me? Yes yes – tell him the next time he is in Hong Kong I will bring him to one of the Wanchai girlie bars and sort him out…. anything he wants so long as he can make this happen… now please hurry — the doomsday clock is in the red zone!!!’
http://www.minddisorders.com/photos/panic-disorder-971.jpg
I am hoping some nation like New Zealand becomes energy independent. They can install all the nuclear they need on Chatham Island about 400 miles east of the mainland and ship the electric back by undersea cable. They can use a liquid fuel rather than solid metal clad so they can burn 100% of the fuel no having to worry about swelling and cladding rupture. Burning 100% means 100X less spent waste to cool in the undersea spend fuel hole in the sea floor.
We don’t need nuclear. We need to learn to live with less. Much less. Of everything.
The only things we need less of is the compulsive consumerist corporate drone, obese junk food feeder replicator cloners and the amounts of banalities, pollution and resource waste they cause. When those are all gone, lets reevaluate BAU for the next step.
Actually we need to live with more … either we continue to grow — which means more consumption — or we collapse into a very primitive state (one without toothbrushes)
Actually no, fewer, more productive and efficient will live with much more. Exponentially more.
How does nuclear become energy independent? Does New Zealand plan to mine the uranium itself, or install a reprocessing plant (which I am sure cannot reprocess all of the uranium). Or where does the liquid fuel come from–locally produced, with local materials?
Is New Zealand going to mine the materials and make all of the steel it needs?
Minsky’s Ponzi Finance
· for hedge finance, income flows are expected to meet financial obligations in every period, including both the principal and the interest on loans.
· for speculative finance, a firm must roll over debt because income flows are expected to only cover interest costs. None of the principal is paid off.
· for Ponzi finance, expected income flows will not even cover interest cost, so the firm must borrow more simply to service its debt.
Looks as if the world has reached the Ponzi Finance stage today.
Ouch! Certainly parts of the world. Failing Chinese companies, for example, and US shale companies. Venezuela is another example.
In Canada, concern re pollution from airborne catalytic materials and others
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-irving-airquality-exclusive-idUSKCN0YW0BK
“Irving Oil’s refinery in the Canadian province of New Brunswick spewed an excessive amount of ash-like catalyst into the surrounding city of Saint John at least a dozen times since 2010 as regulators launched and later abandoned a study of its health impacts, according to filings reviewed by Reuters.”
“The problems at the refinery, Canada’s largest, underscore concerns over catalyst releases at refineries around North America. Incidents in Texas, Wyoming, and California, for example, have heightened calls for a better understanding of how the concoction of sand and metal compounds, used in the production of gasoline, affects human health.”
“The New Brunswick Department of Health had launched an effort to study the substance after a particularly large release in 2013, but the work was delayed and finally canceled two years later because of a lack of time and data, according to agency emails included in the documents.”
“Irving’s safety data sheets for the catalyst caution against ingestion, and warn of the potential for lung damage if inhaled. Several components are believed to be carcinogens, according to information submitted by Irving to New Brunswick regulators.”
“Air quality is a touchy issue in Saint John, which is dominated by Irving-owned industries. Research commissioned by the Conservation Council of New Brunswick in 2009 showed lung cancer rates in the city 50 percent higher than in the capital Fredericton, though the research was unable to identify a cause.”
It seems like everything we try has adverse consequences!
Oil consumption continues to fluctuate in the UK
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-driving-kemp-idUSKCN0YW21Y
“Britain’s motorists consumed 36.0 million tonnes of motor spirit (gasoline) and road diesel in the 12 months ending in March, up from 35.2 million tonnes in the prior 12-month period.”
“For the most part, the rise in fuel consumption reflects a growing economy, increasing employment and rising household incomes (tmsnrt.rs/1ZE2b9Q).”
“Pump prices declined by about 25 percent for both gasoline and diesel between mid-2013 and the first quarter of 2016 (tmsnrt.rs/1VQzXcF) (“Typical retail prices of petroleum products”, UK Department for Energy and Climate Change, May 2016). The volume of traffic on the country’s roads has been rising almost 2 percent per year since the middle of 2013 (“Provisional road traffic estimates, Great Britain”, UK Department for Transport, May 2016). And the number of registered vehicles is now growing well over 2 percent per year, the fastest rate since 2005 (tmsnrt.rs/1ZE3sNW) (“Vehicles statistics”, UK Department for Transport, June 2016). Traffic volumes and vehicle registrations increased slowly in the middle years of the last decade as sharply rising fuel prices curbed driving, then fell sharply during the financial crisis and its aftermath.”
“Until a couple of years ago, it was fashionable to claim that fuel consumption had peaked in the United Kingdom and the other advanced industrial economies.”
Seemed relevant…
http://www.aol.com/article/2016/06/10/koch-industries-calls-for-end-to-partisan-politics/21393318/
Good luck!
Koombaya —- on steroids…
Fresco’s 100th birthday bash, held days earlier at a convention center in Fort Myers, drew more than 600 fans. For them, these rounded retro structures in the wilds of Florida are a hint of what could be: a master plan for a City of the Future without money, a place where all needs are met by technology.
That city, Fresco says, will be run not by politicians but by a central computer that will distribute resources as needed. It’s a vision he’s been working on for most of his life. “A machine doesn’t have emotions,” Fresco likes to say. “It’s not susceptible to corruption.” Social engineering and favorable living circumstances will ensure that people act responsibly toward one another.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/the-100-year-old-man-who-lives-in-the-future
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iusOkfo7tL7M/v0/-1x-1.jpg
Below is a clip from peak oil barrel dot com’s latest posting:
“Overall, oil and gas producers in Canada have cut a whopping $50 billion in capital investments over the past two years. That’s the biggest two-year decline since at least 1947, which is when the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers started tracking investment spending.
In percentage terms, producers have now cut spending by 62% since it peaked at $81 billion in 2014, with spending in the oil sands being cut in half to just $17 billion. That’s the lowest investment rate for the region since just after the financial crisis.
However, spending in the oil sands region would likely be even lower if it wasn’t for the long lead time of these projects; the bulk of 2016’s investment dollars are being spent on projects that started construction prior to the downturn.”
If I were in the Mission Control Room for the End of Days Project … I would have done the following:
When the data pointed to an imminent crisis in oil I would have pushed the price of oil up to absurd limits — the target being around $150….
I would know that this policy would destroy growth…. so as the price of oil was pushed upwards I would have rolled out massive stimulus including subprime mortgages
The reason I want the price at $100+ is because I want to hoard as much oil as possible — I understand that holding excess oil in tanks has severe limitations….
Instead what I would want to do is hold the oil in the ground — essentially I used the high price to encourage the search for oil — and more importantly getting the expensive infrastructure in place so that when I was forced to bring oil prices down to more manageable levels — the wells in place would continue to pump….
Then as my master plan advanced…. I would encourage oil companies not to waste cash looking for more oil and wasting precious capital…. I need them to stay alive to pump what is already found…. but I don’t want them to go bankrupt … so I Goldilocks the price of oil… not too high … not too low….
Mission accomplished. I’ve done as much as can be done.
Of course this is no solution. But it has bought us well over a decade of BAU….
How much longer we get is difficult to say…. because of course — I am not in Mission Control… and I do not have access to the rest of the plan ….
I can only observe what has happened to date and make conclusions based on what is happening.
At some point the men and women in Mission Control will be sent home to be with their families.
Except that there is no master plan unless you control the world economy (plausible but improbable) and the net result either way will still be less future oil (peak oil) available.
More stimulus credit (debt) = more wasting = more consumption = faster we use up oil. Think that’s opposite to prolonging. Nobody talks of austerity (now THAT’s prolonging) since that doesn’t suit the immediate gratification (reward system) of human nature.
Interesting times we live in eh? 😉 Trained chemist here who understands laws of physics pretty decently. To really get out of the oil dilemma, we should use most of our petro-dollars into building better and better solar panels until we get nuclear fusion figured out. Simple really but no business wants to do it as it gives no immediate gratification. Hence politicians needed the unsuccessful political climate change hysteria to get people off fossil fuels and investing into solar etc.
FE loading up the B52, taking off in in 3, 2, 1.. Airborne … Soon the napalm will rain upon the trained internet troll…., oops, ‘scuse me.. it should be chemist. It will smell like victory in the morning.
Incoming!!! Should be hilarious for the 500th time. Oh, and we get to hear the delusistan put down one … more … time…
It never gets old, does it? :-]
We need to bomb DelusiSTAN into the stone age — in order to save Finite World.
Of course you can control the global economy — why do you think the finance world stops when the Fed chair spews gibberish then spends thousands of man hours trying to interpret what was said?
If you control the reserve currency and you set interest rates — you control the global economy. In fact you control the world.
Want to find the power? Follow the money….. all the way to the source….
Actually, we have a huge amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground (regardless of what peak oil folks say).
The problem is keeping the price up high enough so we can get it out. It takes more debt = more wasting = more consumption = faster we use up oil to get it out.
The issue is whether it is lack of oil or inability to keep the price up high enough that keeps oil in the ground. In some sense, the problem is really lack of cheap oil. If there were an infinite supply of really cheap oil, production of oil could keep rising. Prices of goods made with oil would stay low, so we would not need a lot of debt to extract the oil.
Using up oil really isn’t an issue, regardless of what peak oilers have said about this subject. The issue is entropy–bad effects that go with high priced oil.
If I were in mission control. After hoarding as much oil as possible in the ground and building out infrastructure. I would make 95+% of the population die. The hoarded oil would last “forever”.
Yup, sounds reasonable. And use computing to figure out and maintain the bare minimum of what is needed keeping BAU – low population minimalist mode operational.
Which ones will be spared? The rich crony cozy club, top highest IQ, most creative, specific skill set? Random selection?
Either way, I’m most likely toast. So long and thanks for the fish.
375 million people. Will they be scattered all over the planet or would you concentrate them.
A couple of hundred quartermillion cities and several thousands smaller towns. Farmers living where they work.
Would everyone have iphones and Tesla’s?
Federal Government, local and State? Taxation? Defence? Bridges, tunnels, roads, sign posting, parks, postal service, Internet, sports, recreation, hospitals, ambulance, fire, transport, banking, schools, vetinarian…….510 million square Klum of Earth ser face. Divide by 250 or so, see how far apart each city will be.
I’m thinking Stone Age within a month.
Not necessarily, the need for personal daily transportation will be much less.
Even today I don’t understand what purpose smartphones serve other than as a gimmick fooling the people, despite all evidence against it, we are steadily progression towards utopia. (Or as a way of killing 3-5 minutes like I do now, so I don’t have to watch the birds. Or girls.)
You missed the sarcasm…
FE, everyone would actually be better off and propelling BAU ever faster into heat death, since we by then would have removed the current inefficiencies.
That is, the hordes of useless drones, consuming, breeding and contaminating, whereby hindering BAU to extract the maximum work and economic growth out of the current finite resources.
Bandits101,
Defence … why? Government of course. Most of the rest you list, except internet and roads, is needed in proportion to population.
It will much more be a question of successive abandonment of infrastructure than maintenance.
FE,
I’m not serious of course I stopped being serious already at Mission Control. You believe in that, I don’t – they would be too incompetent to not have managed doing better than this.
But suggesting a die-off of 75-95% would mean a instant 100% die-off is ridiculous.
I believe this has been managed magnificently — by all rights we should have been dead years ago….. I thank Ben Bernanke and friends each and every day for what they have done…. absolutely incredible that they can keep this nearly dead horse breathing…
Now if you disagree and you want to play armchair quarterback — what do you suggest they should have done — or still could do — to improve the situation?
Yes FE,
that’s something most people don’t understand: it’s ALREADY TOO LATE, the game is over, there won’t be any recovery, no chance to improve the situation.
We’re living under life-support, borrowing from a future that is getting shorter everyday.
I also agree it’s getting more insane by the day, and sometimes wish for this cruel game to stop asap…
I must admit to a a morbid curiousity with regard to what the trigger will be…. but then I am also curious about what happens when I die — and I am likewise in no great urgency to find out.
What puts me in such a bad mood is that I feel like wellness is stalling, while unnecessary suffering is skyrocketing, everywhere.
My girlfriend is involved in animal protection (pets & livestock), probably it doesn’t help…
I find my state of mind is very good at the moment. Must be the chill in the air.
And it’s also because I am not here – yet:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/97/Payatas-Dumpsite_Manila_Philippines02.jpg
DJ, didn’t TPTB tell dubya to proclaim that it is time for the US population to start shopping, otherwise “this sucker might go down”.
Yep, makes me wonder if you are right regarding that incompetence theory. It’s worrisome.
FE, curious about what happens when he dies. It is so cute.
Let me school you on this topic: You will not be aware of it occurring.
The lights will be out and there is no one home.
Killing off 95% of the world’s population would destroy BAU – it would destroy the global supply chain — it would destroy factories — it would destroy the mining industry.
How would you get it out of the ground and refine it? Where would all the spare parts come from?
http://www.macleans.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/oil-sands-refinery-wishes.jpg
What you would end up with is rusting gear at the well head — and rusting refineries that were shut down because a single valve broke….
And your stock pile of oil would remain in the ground – forever.
FE, uhm, no, you crunch the data stored at the various datacenters around the planet and when you are done, unleash the kraken. Sparing the bare and and viable minimum of people opeating the necessary machinery for maintaining BAU.
BAU might be sensitive and fragile, but if you have the know how, the excesses can be removed for a leaner and more robust future.
BAU to the stars.
What are you going to pay them with. The system is so interconnected that you would need far more than 5%. What about religions..people want their gods. What about women and children, medical care, firearms, electricians, plumbers, police, teachers, jails, telephones, entertainment……ah forget about it. If you take out 95% of the population, you will be in the Stone Age within a month.
++++++++++++++++ to infinity.
We can already see what is happening to the system as demand is stagnating. The entire resource complex is threatened with bankruptcy — with collapse.
Strip away 95% of the consumers and demand implodes — surely it goes without saying — civilization ends.
BAU Lite is not viable.
bandits101,
Obviously lesser priests, electricians, etc. We are after all a limited population on earth. Even though there are plenty of us.
A wise man once stated that the graveyards are filled to the brim with indispensable people.
The earth is filled to the brim with far worse than that. It is burdened with far too many totally redundant humans.
I just propose to contract the population to the lower bound of what is possible while maintaining the spoils of BAU for the remainder.
Your spare parts will last 20-100x longer, and of course you keep <5% of spare parts factory. All electricity globally will instantly be renewable (hydro) with lots to waste.
We’ve done this to death a thousand times on FW…. we even had a hydro engineer drop in and explain in detail how a hydro plant and the grid cannot operate without the entire system operational…
The grid is a massive system — it spans huge distances – it is repaired using helicopters…
I don’t care to re-debate this ..
Suffice to say – you will not be able to buy a toothbrush post BAU — to think anyone will be able to keep complex systems functioning when the global supply chain has vapourized is ludicrous.
FE, we are not discussing a post BAU scenario. Rather a controlled contaction of a drastic population overshoot. Of course you keep the helicopters and pilots, engineers, drawings, scientists. It is not that the world will run out of spare parts anytime soon either. Just have a look at how many unused vehicles and airplanes that will be instantly available. There would be plenty of machines, and other BAU tooling available for ad-hoc manufacturing of critical parts.
According to your beliefs, every human is equally critical for the survival of BAU. I can with a 100% certainity say that if every one of the OFW readers, commenters and even Gail herself would perish tomorrow. BAU would still be around.
There is an ever decreasing lower bound of the number of humans required for BAU to continue. I’m pretty sure TPTB have a quite exact figure on how many and who they are.
Not possible.
We either grow – forever — or BAU collapses into a heap of rubble.
There is no BAU Lite.
Alas — you have been captured by the DelusiSTANis….
Gail has explained in detail why what you are proposing is not possible. I suggest you review previous articles.
FE, are you objectioning to my postulating that BAU will continue independently of your existence? Then in fact you have agreed to my premise. That is; BAU without FE is still viable?
Thus you are forced to draw the conclusion that there is a viable lower bound of the amount of humans for it not to collapse in its current state.
I argue that with technology this lower bound is continuously decreased. There are simply too many mouths to feed and too little resources for any real economic growth.
It is like flaring off excess hydrocarbons and thinking that burning FF,’s always leads to economic growth. A bit simplistic if you ask me. It has to stop.
Ola!
Let’s take a peak of a pre-collapse situation where hungry people steal chickens off of a truck… of course they’d never consider stealing the chickens and sheep in my paddocks because they would respect my land title ….
Video: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-10/caught-tape-starving-venezuelans-storm-truck-steal-chickens
Those pesky “food zombies”. 🙂
Pokemon, I can’t tell if you’re trolling.
You seem to accept the general thesis of this blog but became upset when wrote that there are no resources in space to support human life.
Pokemon “There isn’t any resources in space? Well apparently there must be since we all are surfing BAU just this moment. If you still find it hard to believe me; let me ask, where is the solar system situated?”
The only thing space provides for us is the sun. We need more than sunlight to stay alive. The are resources, outside of Earth, and in space but there is no energy that easily obtainable to get those resources and configure them in a way we can use. Whatever NASA has done or is doing depends on the availability of materials that are available on Earth.
“Hum, NASA uses several forms of propulsion depending on the mission. From chemical rocketry to ion thrusters. And nuclear decay for heat and electricity generation. Solar panels for planetary rovers.” Nasa’s non-fossil fuel energy sources suffer from all the problems that renewable energy on Earth has has: They are is ridiculously expensive, and indirectly depend on the availability of fossil fuels and other resources on Earth.
ARBP, no trolling. I was pointing out that there is indeed new forms of propulsion and energy sources than at the time of the Wright brothers. However, they are still very much bound to the same thermodynamic laws as the other types.
For example, an ion (a plasma accelerated over a voltage potential, generating thrust) engine is of the same reaction type as a typical solid (basically rubber and an oxidizer being burned to generage thrust) rocket. The difference being the size of the impulse and ejection velocity.
Earth is a part of the universe and supports life thanks to our sun. Perhaps the only place in the universe, but that is highly doubtful. So indeed there are sources of energy in the universe, solar, FF’s and other building materials for BAU to proliferate. The question being if it is technically feasible for such endeavours of taking BAU to space.
I consider it our only option.
“there is indeed new forms of propulsion and energy sources than at the time of the Wright brothers. ” The only new energy source that has come into use since the Wright Brothers perfected the plane is nuclear energy. Nuclear energy suffers from the problem of being non-renewable and requires the use of many metals and minerals. A nuclear pulse propulsion system doesn’t make space flight faster, and safer.
“For example, an ion engine”
Ion engines, also known as ion thrusters, can only use a very specific range of elements that they can turn into ions. The specific range of elements that ion engines can use are called noble gases. A spaceship using an ion engine would need to be near a large and cheap supply of propellants. in order to work. It would also need another energy source to power the ship.
The energy and resource requirements of human space travel dwarf current global use of energy and resources. While there are resources in spaces, perhaps vast amounts, they are far apart and require vast amounts of energy to obtain, energy that we can’t obtain.
The problems with space travel are VERY similar to the problems with renewable energy on Earth.
I feel like I’m repeating myself. I feel like I’m talking to a wall. Are you sure you’re not trolling? Perhaps, you’re just SO emotionally invested in BAU that you believe all the whizz bang articles that you’ve read about space travel, Basic Income, and other pie-in-the-sky “solutions” meant to placate the masses but I don’t accept it an excuse for posting what amounts to a Bernie Sanders campaign with every post you make.
” The question being if it is technically feasible for such endeavours of taking BAU to space.” It is not.
The real question is, do you accept that answer or do you think miracles are going to happening to keep BAU going forever?
According to Catherine Austin Fitts, this is already being done with “the Breakaway Civilization.” Sounds a bit woo-woo but she has a lot of interesting things to say. See interviews with Dark Journalist.
Why the first civilizations originated in the vicinity of rivers? Besides the sun, the flow of water was another external energy source that could be easily exploited. It was the energy of the sun + the energy of the gravitation that allows the water flow, that created the human civilization.
The cheap energy of flowing water for transportation purposes was the key factor that allowed the creation of the cities, where various resources met in one spot.
The energy of fossil fuels, as the new portable external energy, allowed us to spread from these gravitation centers, i.e. the fossil fuels allowed us to overcome the gravitation force.
And this additional energy allowed us to change occasional dwellings into permanent ones, too.
The inability of an organism to overcome the gravitation force and thus recieve the energy from the sun = death. The organisms that can receive more energy from the sun are stronger. The plants are our great enemy.
Smells like…. victory!
http://upstreampolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/clearcut-1.jpg
The important thing about the climate with four seasons is, that the plant life is supressed during winter. The winter helps the humans to kill the plants they can use for heating.
The first civilizations arose in the places where the climate was not too hot and not too cold, not too dry and not too humid.
Also, rivers eliminated the need for roads or railroad tracks to ship goods–made for much cheaper shipping because of this.
So If every business gave grants which are cordinated, might that leverage public energy that is now unleveraged toward greater near-term economic resilience?
Buying Junk Shows ECB Is Getting Desperate
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-10/buying-junk-debt-shows-ecb-is-getting-desperate
“Those are just some of the unintended consequences of the European Central Bank’s renewed efforts to resuscitate the euro zone economy by expanding its quantitative easing program to include corporate securities.”
Conjuring up loot out of nothingness to carry listing sinking ships (corporations) a few more rounds. Yeah, that’s extremely desperate. For the life of me I can’t figure out how Italy got into such a mess. When we were in Rome, Florence and Venus, there were lots of tourists dishing out euros for everything from entry fees and hotels to restaurants and transportation. They did a great job holding on to their antiquity to draw in the gawking passerby’s and that stuff doesn’t cost diddly anymore. It just sits there for people to drop their jaws at so what’s the problem? Why borrow money when the tourists are dropping payloads of cash? They have stone houses that will last thousands of years so housing shouldn’t be a problem. Their population is under control. I don’t get how Italy got in a pickle.
The European single market and the Euro opened up Europe for competition among European nations. It opened up Europe for German exports and no one can compete with the German power house. German industrial exports destroyed the industrial base of Southern Europe.
Southern Europe started to borrow money to pay for German goods and went broke. Today Germany exports half of its GDP and is dependent on exports for its survival. If German exports would collapse, then Germany would collapse as well.
So Southern Europe receives new loan packages and the ECB buys their bonds to keep them alive… to keep German exports and Germany alive.
Italy has done a little bit better than Greece, Cyprus, Spain and Portugal. But today Italian banks are on the verge of collapse as well. I’m not exactly sure why the Italian banks are collapsing, but they have massive amounts of non-paying loans.
Tourism is very important for Southern Europe, but in the end, service sector jobs are low wage jobs and a dead end in a industrialized world.
Good summary,
Thanks Yoshua
“The European single market and the Euro opened up Europe for competition among European nations. It opened up Europe for German exports and no one can compete with the German power house. German industrial exports destroyed the industrial base of Southern Europe.”
Interesting information, Yoshua, yet not surprising. I worked a summer job while going to college in a machine shop in northern CA. By far the best machinists on the floor were German. The American machinists just couldn’t compete at that level of precision and speed.
Good points! Importers need to keep borrowing to pay for goods. At the same time, they don’t get the wages needed to pay for the goods. The arrangement doesn’t really work.
What is Italy?
You have to take it in historical context, the northern parts/provinces were always inside the core of European progress in the civilization thing like industry, crafts etc. Big part of today’s problem (like elsewhere) was the nationalist movements of the early-mid 19th century, which resulted in the integration idea that the core regions should support and donate, uplift, the poorer southern regions (in this case of Italy), because supposedly we are all the same, right? Well, it sort of works for a few decades, but sooner or later those old pesky problems of different climate, culture, landscape, mentality, .. etc. all start to pop up again and the core clearly starts separate from the stagnating periphery. It is costly and ruinous process, which has repeated itself throughout the history several times all over the continent and the world.. we are clearly at the stage flipping back to regionalism, aka clear divide between small enclaves of relative wealth and impoverished/left aside periphery.
Just because there are a lot of tourists in Italy does not mean it will prosper …. its other industries are dying …. debt loads are enormous …
Tourism cannot make up for this.
Grow or die.
Stilgar,
“Conjuring up loot out of nothingness to carry listing sinking ships (corporations) a few more rounds. Yeah, that’s extremely desperate.”
Overheard at the cafe of TPTB HQ:
Ok, ok, ok, No layoffs, promise, I’ll print some more monies, now keep them meatbags busy producing TPS reports.
Yeah, p, TPTB don’t care how blurred the red queen’s legs appear as long as she doesn’t start moving backwards! Print!!
Good-paying jobs depend on jobs that use energy. If population is not growing, there is no need for new houses, schools, stores, and factories, so no need for construction workers, except to fix up old buildings. Construction jobs tend to pay well.
There is also no need for factory workers to make goods to fill these buildings. Farming has already been mechanized in much of the world, making it hard to sell food on the world market that uses much labor in its production. With depressed incomes, demand cannot rise for high priced services, so there is not need for additional workers in these fields, except to replace retiring workers.
Gail, Houses usually come pre-built, IKEA style, these days thanks to automation and efficiencies of scale.
A growing population with a lack of continuous energy efficiencies and productivity increases from either ever cheaper energy or advanced cognitive capabilities, ultimately leads to economic stagnation.
What I propose is that a productive and highly paid “elite” worker can afford the output from a more complex system. There is no need for nonproductive boilerplate workers.
First they migrated from the agricultural sector as it became mechanized, then the industrial sector with automation and now administration/bureaucracies jobs with computing.
But here it stops, it is the end of the line. There is nowhere left to go for simple boilerplate jobs.
Except that we have gotten the output of the system back to workers through simple boilerplate jobs. We don’t have the option of doing something else. We are at the end of the line.
End of the line…. very much so…
Unlike Johnny…. there are still some places I’d like to go though…. Iran, Uzbekistan, Argentina….
I like adventuresome travel too, but my husband is not quite up to going to places that are too disrupted. In fact, these are probably over the edge for me as well. Iran may not be too bad right now.
I’ve tried to go to Iran before … and you need an agency in Iran to provide an invitation letter… I had someone in my office try to get a letter for me but they could not get a response after multiple tries… I ended up going to Jordan instead…
So yesterday I filled out the form on an agency site in Tehran — and still not response…. I’ve fired emails into two more this morning to other agencies….
I am beginning to wonder if I have offended the Ayatollahs?
Not enough girls on the last HK trip? Not enough boys? Wrong brand of gin? Stiffed by the dealer? What could it be…. these priests are pretty quiet…. they never tell you if they are offended….
I guess I’ll have to make a skype call at some point to get to the bottom of this….
My wife is already looking at http://www.burkas.com and has her credit card ready … I have informed her that she must walk 3 paces behind me and obey my every command while in the country to which she said… (well that is unmentionable)….
Inshallah we will go to Iran in September!
It sounds like you are persistent. Maybe there is an academic group in Iran that would like to invite me.
Still no answer … but Friday was their Sunday….
I can imagine that being invited to a major oil producer such as Iran to discuss the end of oil might be a tough gig to get…. 🙂
How Far Can Oil Rally? Options Investors Bet on Surge Above $100
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/how-far-can-oil-rally-options-investors-bet-on-surge-above-100
Not a long rally, I expect, though.
Even a short rally would make Stilgar look good.
“The market faces a supply crunch in the next 24 months,” said Francisco Blanch, head of commodities research at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York. “Some hedge funds are betting that oil prices will need to rise sharply to bring demand down again — that’s why they are buying deep out-of-the-money call options.”
From your posted article, Yosua is the above. Feast or famine it would seem and surely now the pendulum has swung the other way, price will rise but even I think 100 is a bit optimistic. But part of that article has some wagering on $80 dollars a barrel and that is certainly possible. As I’ve mentioned, it’s going to be interesting now to watch what happens to economies as oil price rises. What threshold causes the consumer to tap out and cause a contraction? I’m figuring about $80 is max. but we shall see. These higher prices will certainly test the Hills Group numbers.
In a normal world your bet makes sense and is based on logic. Now lets see how normal this world is.
Yes, Y, time will tell…I love a good experiment, especially when there are different notions of what will happen.
And now for some downright unfortunate news in the following article.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/10/news/economy/americans-struggling-financially/
76 million Americans say they are just barely getting by, struggling financially. I wonder how much that number will go up in the next recession.
Speaking of which, to get an idea of how expensive food is getting, I buy these gallon jugs of organic, fresh squeezed apply juice. All natural, so there’s none of that corn syrup or phony forms of sugar injected into it. So one would expect to pay a little more, right. Two years ago when I started getting it, it was 12.95 a gallon + CRV (recycling charge). Then it went to 13.95, then 14.86, then 15.86 and now it’s 17.86. We get almond milk which was 3.57 is now 4.59 for a 1/2 gallon. Organic Fugi apples were 2.95 are now 3.95 a pound. This is getting crazy. I saw a 70’s movie the other day and these 2 women were going out the grocery check stand and one of the women was telling the clerk he was robbing them blind. The total cost: $8.49 for about 8 cans of food and a few other assorted things. Try buying a can of almost anything these days for less than 3 bucks something. Try broccoli soup, I mean the good stuff in a carton, 8.65 Prices recently have been skyrocketing. Has anyone else noticed? We have the money to get this stuff, but I shudder to think how many people making small wages can get by.
In Germany, when you buy not organic the super basic stuff (potatoes, carrots, onions, flour, pasta, oatflakes, sugar, simple bread) is cheap. Organic has a hefty surplus (at least double price, but sometime 3-4 time more expensive). But also cheap meat it still cheap. You may get a kilo (>2 US pounds) of pork meat for 3€. Milk you currently get at a discount as there is a hefty overproduction… but I wouldn’t touch it – It isn’t good for you (saturated fats, IGF-1, decalcifies, etc. pp).
But yes… prices increase, especially if you want the good stuff. But if you live on a whole plants diet with no extravagances – and if you buy seasonal food – its still cheap and healthy. o.k. Processed food is anyway evil and should be avoided and here you may often pay a premium for the “processing” that actually downgrades the food.
The official “Inflation” numbers are a joke… everything I buy increases in price… more that 2% a year.
Good post, Ert. We went to almond milk a couple of years ago based on that very information you posted, namely decalcifies and sat. fats. We get organic mostly because we want to avoid risk of getting cancer.
“The official “Inflation” numbers are a joke… everything I buy increases in price… more that 2% a year.”
Agreed – what drives me crazy is how fast people just accept the new prices. There’s little if any push back here in the US.
There are billions around the world in far worse positions…. the main reason they are living like that is so that we can all live large on the pillage….
I can’t say that I am dismayed when I hear that giant fat spoiled westerners are getting a taste of the tainted apple… to a great extent I am looking forward to the precious Hampton’s crowd eating boiled rat …
The only downside is that we’ll all be sharing the rat with them….
I haven’t actually noticed any food price increases at all for the last 7 years. The stagnation in Europe seems to be for real. The only increase I have noticed is the rise in energy costs… while the oil price is crashing and interest rates are falling below zero.
“I haven’t actually noticed any food price increases at all for the last 7 years.”
Huh?!
You can see why most people don’t buy organic stuff–the price is too high.
If I had a dollar for every time a Green Groupie told me that everyone should buy organic food only — that anything but organic should be banned.
It ranks right up there with Marie’s comment about eating cake….
I usually respond with ‘but if everyone ate organic food an apple would cost $5 because there is no way we could supply 7.3B people with organic farming — which of course would mean a lot of people starve’
This is their usual response:
http://www.unapologeticallyamerican.com/wp-content/uploads/DumbKid.jpeg
And sometimes this
http://8449-presscdn-0-66.pagely.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/dumb.jpg
They usually attempt to change the topic by doing something incredible … like this:
Not according to futures, http://goo.gl/i5tseb. Oil futures go only as high as $57 per barrel as far out as 2023. So story is just more media trolling…
Stilgar,
This is a bad copy (remake) of my vanished answer to your question about what woud be the optimal barrel price.
I won’t bet on any precise figure, all I can say is that the optimal price for energy would be ZERO, since our economies have been built up on such hypothesis. Any cost above zero is a burden that has to be absorbed somewhere else in the system, or postponed like with debt.
All I see is that both our resources and our needs are following exponentially increasing curves, but going in opposite directions. The crossing point of those curves, which has already happened in many regards, marks the beginning of auto-cannibalization, since we’re living on a finite planet, that is now filled up with humans and their orchestra.
Moreover, I’d argue that finding energy is not our major problem, it’s finding ways to mitigate the negative impacts of using this energy. As we’ve been using more than allowed for a natural recycling of our wastes (and often in ways that do not authorize any recycling at all), all our excessive entropy remains in the system, until it’s “used” in some way so that the system recovers its initial state (provided we don’t add more entropy during this process….), or much more likely will lead our auto-adaptive complex system to a tipping-point, and then the whole system will tip-over to a new equilibrium.
To predict the nature of this future equilibrium is an impossible task, as well as giving any pronostic about the date at which it will happen, because we don’t know what exactly will trigger the release, and also due to the hysteresis effect: things remain in place and running according to obsolete rules beyond the critical point, such as in liquid surfusion, and then suddenly move over to the new state of things, once the cascading release of energy-potential sinks is triggered by… something, possibly insignificant and probably unnoticed.
That’s a property of CAS (complex auto-adaptive systems). In my opinion, we’re already in this state of surfusion, so all of what is going on in this period is not really relevant, and doesn’t learn us anything about next step.
I agree that the optimal price for energy would be zero. In fact, to get economic growth, it seems like the price of energy needs to keep falling, as it reaches zero asymptotically.
Thanks Gail for your comment,
Yet, I’m not sure of your “asymptotically”, that woud suggest a soft landing.
Au contraire, it seems to me -and that’s pure intuition, not based on any calculation- that the price of energy should be more and more urgently close to zero, as diminishing returns are operating in opposite direction with growing strength.
In other words, the price of energy should follow the same pattern as that of what I call here “our needs”, but in negative, to compensate its negative impacts. That is an exponential trajectory, and resembles a crash, not a soft landing.
Maybe a false representation ; just saying.
The reason I said asymptotically approaching zero is because I was assuming that they couldn’t go negative. As they approach zero, it would seem to possible to do more and more. I don’t think they need to go negative. But you might be right about approaching it quickly. (Of course, the real cost of extraction could not drop to this low level.)
It seems to me that Hubbert with his nuclear energy forecast is close to assuming a zero cost of nuclear.
If we can get an almost unlimited amount of energy out for virtually no cost, the question that comes to mind is, “Why would we keep extracting fossil fuel energy in addition.” Hubbert is careful to explain (in his second paper, not the first one) that he would use nuclear energy to replace liquid fuels by reversing combustion–adding so much energy that he could get CO2 and water to produce liquid fuels.
Maybe, Gail,
Hubbert’s assumptions seem logical at first glance (and I’m very admirative for that), but Hubbert himself realized they weren’t realistic (I think).
And we musn’t forget that the more energy we dissipate, the more Entropy we generate.
That’s become our main problem, and counting. We tend to forget it and keep looking at the wrong side of things, I’m afraid (even if this problem has no “solution”).
My view: Hubbert couldn’t bear to tell the world the complete truth, so he came up with what he considered a best-case scenario. At that point, a whole lot of people even thought it was true. Maybe Hubbert even did. Later when it was clear that nuclear wasn’t cost-free, he changed his story to solar. That story didn’t make much sense.
Hubbert seemed to omit entropy from all of this models. The Hubbert peak model assumes no entropy. Neither does his nuclear plan for the future.
And perhaps he was told to add a happy ending if he wanted access to MSM distribution ….
Gail,
I happened this morning to run into pieces of work by a Mr Ezra Mishan, whom I never heard about so far, that might be among the first attempts to study the Entropic effects of our activities, as he started to publish in the early 1960’s.
Looks like his work has been carefully ignored, as it’s mostly about the “externalities” of capitalism (if I got it correctly).
About his main theme (technical paper):
“Ezra Mishan’s Cost of Economic Growth: Evidence from the Entropy of Environmental Capital”
http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/bitstream/handle/10635/122562/2016-Ezra_Mishan's_cost_economic_growth-postprint.pdf?sequence=1
ABSTRACT
Ezra Mishan’s (1967) famous articulation of the costs of economic growth included amongst others the rearrangement and loss of nature. This paper builds on this theme by recourse to two important concepts in science, namely the assimilative capacity of nature and the entropy of law of thermodynamics. These concepts enable the formulation of an alternative conceptual framework for the explanation of national income (Y) in terms of factor-utilization. In this framework, environmental capital (KN) is an explicit factor besides manufactured capital (KM) and labour (L). A simple methodology that permits the estimation of the volume of KN utilized is used towards demonstrating that economic growth is an entropic process. Empirical illustration of KN utilization as point-estimates is made for Australia and South Korea.
Another paper (3 pages excerpt) about immigration:
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/seventeen-one/tsc_17_1_mishan.pdf
Thanks for pointing out Ezra Mishan’s work. Also the 2016 paper on his work by Dodo J Thampapillai. In a way, what Mishan is saying is obvious–just ignored by most.
I agree! I think for growth to continue oil has to get cheaper with time not more expensive. But to really maximize growth, it would be nice if the energy content of a barrel of oil would increase with time as price decreases with time. But, this is the real world. And things rarely work in our favor.
Efficiency improvements do allow a little bit of something similar to more energy content in a barrel of oil, over time. The same barrel can make a car or truck go farther, it the vehicle is more efficient.
In the range of 1% per year, at best (as you’ve shown in a nice graph).
Nowhere near what would be required to offset all adverse diminishing returns.
I think efficiency improvement have reached the end in terms of local and component level optimizations. For example, a generator and electric motor are quite close to the limits, the same goes for water and steam turbines.
It is about time to start looking at energy efficiency on a system level. For example is it reasonable to be commuting with FF propelled cars if there are for example bicycles and trains? Also, how to deal with the consumption and wastes of a increasingly nonproductive population and work force.
That is if not productivity and energy efficiency can keep it at bay. These are low hanging fruits at first, but as we approach the thermodynamical limits, more research and engineering efforts are needed to extract additional useful work from each energy unit.
However, we are also reaching the limits of human mental capabilities. Which is why we probably are witnessing large investments into computer learning and cognition. Relatively recently one of the best GO players was beaten by Google, it was previously considered to be highly unlikely for a machine to ever beat a top GO player. The same with IBM’s Jeopardy champion beating supercomputer. And in the 90’s, when Kasparov got beaten by Blue Gene.
Thus: BAU 5.0 will be the age of the thinking machine.
“All I see is that both our resources and our needs are following exponentially increasing curves, but going in opposite directions. The crossing point of those curves, which has already happened in many regards, marks the beginning of auto-cannibalization, since we’re living on a finite planet, that is now filled up with humans and their orchestra.”
That part is true for sure, Stefeun.
But the producer needs some incentive, so although zero would be nice, it isn’t necessary as we did just fine on super cheap energy. In the 60’s oil sold at times for 2-3 dollars a barrel and growth was fast & easy. 1 paycheck per family was plenty. But cheap energy is gone and now we fight over what’s left. I use to live in Marin County, one of the richest counties in the US, but at the time it wasn’t rich, just a nice place to live. It was cheap and not even crowded. Now every square inch is strongly competed for in a world of declining net energy. Very stressful compared to yesteryear.
Danish goverment plans to sneeze money from supporting the renewables. Offshore windfarms are after all dirty expencive.
https://solarthermalmagazine.com/2016/06/09/danish-government-u-turn-clean-energy-climate-change-deterring-investors/
Your link fits in very well with the link on Danish wind I posted earlier: http://pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/references/pfb_towards_50_pct_wind_in_denmark_2016_03_30.pdf
According to the link you posted,
Sweden 100% renewable by 2040. Can’t figure out if they mean energy or just electricity. And if we can cheat by inporting non-renewable electricity and stuff.
Renewable… hmmm…. so they have worked out to grow solar panels on trees?
Easy to make those statements when one knows we will never see 2040.
The Koombaya Krowd is lapping that up — it will be the topic de jour at the Sunday markets….
It will be what hipsters are discussing as they pull up in Teslas to the coffee shop that sells coffee from beans shit out that arse of Scott Nearing’s great grand son who has been fed only on the purest organic vegetarian diet and organically grown coffee beans flown in from a remote island off the coast of Java…
If the NY Times says so — it is true.
Sweden 100% renewable by 2040. …
Think “WOOD”, it’s 100% renewable
Perhaps the next Edison will be the person who works out to grow a large mature tree in 2 months.
I wonder how many of Sweden’s trees will be left by 2050?
The better question for us (U.S.) is how much SE forest will be left before the energy corporations stop shipping trees to Drax etc to produce “renewable” electricity. https://eubioenergy.com/2016/05/17/see-it-here-threatened-forests-the-hidden-truth-behind-eu-green-energy/
https://eubioenergy.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/enviva-clearcut-nc-7-c-linde-zuidema-copy1.jpg
I don’t see a problem here…
When BAU ends if anyone is around they will cut down and burn whatever forests remain as they try to re-invent the industrial revolution ….
Screw them. Let’s get as much as we can now and keep this machine rolling along a little longer!
Gimme some….. gimme some….
Either much more of them than now, or none at all.
I guess.
What — no free lunch?
‘Renewable Energy’ = Insanity.
I think we were discussing changing human behaviour earlier … of course when each of us is unable to feed our families we’d never do something like that!!!
The good thing is — we won’t get to find out — because when we are in her position — the shelves will belong empty har har har har har
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bcYppAs6ZdI
In an FE, I told you so story, this just broke on the RT News Wire !
Reactor at Belgian nuclear power plant shuts down after incident
https://www.rt.com/news/346143-belgium-nuclear-plant-tihange/
A reactor is not a spent fuel pond.
You cannot shut down a spent fuel pond. The water in the ponds must circulate constantly at a specific temperature — if that does not happen – and the water boils off — you get this:
Scientists say nuclear fuel pools around the country pose safety and health risks: The Fukushima nuclear catastrophe could have been far worse, it turns out, and experts say neither the nuclear industry nor its regulators are doing enough to prevent a calamitous nuclear fuel fire in America
https://www.publicintegrity.org/2016/05/20/19712/scientists-say-nuclear-fuel-pools-around-country-pose-safety-and-health-risks
Assuming a 50-100% Cs137 release during a spent fuel fire, [8] the consequence of the Cs-137 exceed those of the Chernobyl accident 8-17 times (2MCi release from Chernobyl). Based on the wedge model, the contaminated land areas can be estimated. [9] For example, for a scenario of a 50% Cs-137 release from a 400 t SNF pool, about 95,000 km² (as far as 1,350 km) would be contaminated above 15 Ci/km² (as compared to 10,000 km² contaminated area above 15 Ci/km² at Chernobyl). http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/364/radiological_terrorism.html
Containing radiation equivalent to 14,000 times the amount released in the atomic bomb attack on Hiroshima 68 years ago, more than 1,300 used fuel rod assemblies packed tightly together need to be removed from a building that is vulnerable to collapse, should another large earthquake hit the area. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/14/us-japan-fukushima-insight-idUSBRE97D00M20130814
The problem is if the spent fuel gets too close, they will produce a fission reaction and explode with a force much larger than any fission bomb given the total amount of fuel on the site. All the fuel in all the reactors and all the storage pools at this site (1760 tons of Uranium per slide #4) would be consumed in such a mega-explosion. In comparison, Fat Man and Little Boy weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki contained less than a hundred pounds each of fissile material – See more at: http://www.dcbureau.org/20110314781/natural-resources-news-service/fission-criticality-in-cooling-ponds-threaten-explosion-at-fukushima.html
This is another article I found about the incident. http://www.dw.com/en/new-incident-at-belgiums-tihange-2-nuclear-plant/a-19323647 The plants have had problems in the past.
According to the article,
The UK’s oil and gas industry will lose a total of 120,000 jobs by the end of this year as a result of the market downturn which has slashed value from the struggling sector since mid 2014.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/09/oil-downturn-to-wipe-out-over-a-quarter-of-north-sea-jobs/
W-O-W
FE, that`s a helluva hole in government taxes, making huge rise in unemployment costs, and the knowledge the personnel is possessing might not be easily transfered to other areas of business. Over the years I have participated two times in layoffs and so far escaped unscathered, but I am already sure, that the next ones in few years will be my demise.
Kanghi, speaking of layoffs I have funny story about one of my own layoffs. It was during a slow economic period and people were getting laid off by our company, but in a slow way that drove the remaining one’s to work their arses off. Lots of tension and raw nerves every day. Then one Friday I was working with two other guys and we worked feverishly and took our morning break late so we could finish a segment of work. Just as we did the boss passed by and said good morning. We all thought, oh no, bad timing and got back to work. I told the other guys I had a feeling I was next to get laid off, but they dismissed that as paranoia. Then again to try and finish a segment of work we ate lunch late and the same thing happened with the boss and we even explained why we were taking lunch late. Then after working our butts off again through the afternoon, 15 minutes before the end of our shift I stood still for a moment to catch my breath. The boss walked by and again I told those other guys I was next to get laid off but they laughed it off. With 1 minute left in the day I was told by the site foreman to meet him in the office. I got laid off. One of the guys I worked with was so shocked he started getting emotional (mostly I think out of his own fear of getting laid off) because he couldn’t understand how that could happen when we were working so hard. He later got laid off and a year later when they called him back to work he refused saying the company was too stressful to work for.
But getting laid off was a blessing in disguise because our family’s bills were low at the time and between unemployment and side cash jobs our family did just fine and I was away from all that stress finally.
Best of luck to you in your work, Kanghi.
Oh, I just remembered. On that same job site, one guy working in a hot attic died of an aneurism and another was paralyzed from the neck down when he fell off of a roof. Things that can happen when people get pushed too hard.
I imagine that there will be a follow-on effect as well. Those people will cut back on their spending elsewhere. Even if some of them get jobs in other industries, the overall jobless rate can be expected to rise.
So having exceedingly cheap products that had some appeal might fit with this?
Gross Says Negative Rates Are Like ‘Supernova’ That Will Explode
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-09/gross-says-negative-rates-are-like-supernova-that-will-explode
Banks selling them go bankrupt, for example. Pension funds collapse.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2016/06/09/who-women-in-zika-affected-regions-should-consider-delaying-pregnancy/
Since articles first started coming out on Zika virus I’ve been posting many of them here because I’ve thought from the beginning this is a story that will just keep getting bigger over time. At the link above is an article reporting women in Zika affected regions are being told they should consider delaying pregnancy. The area affected includes millions of people. Since when has our species ever suggested delaying pregnancy? Is this a first? It’s probably to cover their arses from possible litigation by being able to later claim they warned women to delay pregnancy, so if they got pregnant it’s their fault. In any case, it’s still the early stages of what will later become a full blown tragedy as the numbers of microencepholy children born rises along with the neurological damage that occurs to some adults that get infected with Zika. This is a big deal and not some virus that can be contained like Ebola. This isn’t from blood to blood transmission, but by mosquitos (blood), saliva or sex. It’s happening in a part of the world where most people don’t have windows with screens. They regularly get nailed by mosquitos.
The Zika virus seems to have a potential to become a real epidemic.
A person in the industry responded to a question about shale gas and said that most companies in the shale gas business where doing okey, not fantastic with these low gas prices, but still surviving.
Companies that have gone into shale oil on the other hand are getting burned.
He believed that shale gas has a future and that there is a lot of gas to be explored. So perhaps there is a future after oil after all ?
So now you are turning your nice into a terrorist suspect ? What are you doing ?
I would like to be able to say that: yes I worked for Cheney, he was my boss.
The WTI and the economy are tanking again. You will never see $60 again. The Hill’s are right about oil (in my opinion).
“So now you are turning your nice into a terrorist suspect ? What are you doing ?”
I don’t understand the question. What’s a nice? Can you clarify?
I realized I took your post Yosh on Cheney wrong and tried to post a response last evening but the post evidently got lost – you know some posts do that. Anyway, everything is cool. I enjoy exchanging posts with you, all posters.
“The WTI and the economy are tanking again. You will never see $60 again. The Hill’s are right about oil (in my opinion).”
Well, that’s fine to have that opinion/position. It’s ok to differ on opinions and we’ll just have fun with it to see how price plays out. I’m pretty sure it will go higher than $60.
Oh, I got it now. Niece, not nice. We figured who would suspect a young girl? lol. But those TSA guys were wise to that doey substance. Can’t get anything past them.
Sometimes communication in these posts gets lost in the shuffle as far as understanding what someone meant. Might be more fun for everybody to meet somewhere in the middle of the country, rent a big auditorium and have a peak oil party. Gail can get things started with a diatribe on the state of the economy/oil and we can go from there. But at least in person we’d probably make fewer communication mistakes.
“But at least in person we’d probably make fewer communication mistakes.”
I’m quiet certain that is when the real problems start. 🙂
Maybe you’re right. First we’d all get along, then an hour later we’d split into two groups based on differing viewpoints, then splinter into sub-groups from there. Finally we’d all say, ok, let’s do what we do best on this subject – post online. See ya!
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/06/04/Q1%20new%20GDP%20vs%20new%20Debt_1_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-09/it-took-10-new-debt-create-1-growth-first-quarter
Ever get stuck in mud? The faster you spin your tire the deeper in you go….
It would be interesting to see China’s debt to GDP ratio for a recent time period, if we had a proper statement of economic growth and debt.
Soon adding more debt cease to be tractable. The wheels do no longer touch the ground.
posted especially for BAU advocates 🙂
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-california-energy-analysis-idUSKCN0YV0BX
“California’s big push for renewable power began in earnest with Davis’ successor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, a decade ago. He set a goal for the state to obtain 33 percent of its power from renewable sources by 2020, an ambitious target that the state’s top three utilities are on track to exceed because of government support for wind and solar power and a dramatic drop in the price of those technologies.”
“At the same time, rooftop solar capacity has soared faster than expected while older gas-fired power plants have not retired as quickly as state energy officials had projected. On a recent Thursday, solar was able to provide more than 40 percent of the state’s power in the middle of the day — making the state’s new goal of sourcing 50 percent of its power from renewables by 2030 seem in reach.“
The most expensive electricity in the world (outside of Germany) brought to you by enormous taxpayer subsidies!
California at least has a reasonable climate for solar. Germany doesn’t.
Now if only California could find a way to make the sun shine 24 hours per day.
Good point, Gail.
“On a recent Thursday, solar was able to provide more than 40 percent of the state’s power in the middle of the day…”
Am I crazy or is that a lot of solar!?
Then the next day it rained and 100% of electricity was provided by coal-fired plants.
Likewise at night….
Yeah, but it’s in the middle of the day that electricity usage peaks due to AC usage (and when people are most active using, construction equipment, washers/dryers etc.), especially in the majority of CA with Summer daytime temps that are 90-110F. At night electricity in CA is much cheaper because of the low draw. The utilities don’t worry about nighttime loads. In fact they do everything they can to encourage people to use more electricity at night so they use less during the day. I want to get solar for our house which uses AC a lot during the summer.
Evening loads are also significant.
This is moot because you still need to operate a completely separate generation system otherwise you have 0 electricity during a storm and from sun down.
Solar power would absolutely not exist as a grid tie-in … if it were not for massive subsidies.
Just like Tesla would be bankrupted the second govt subsidies stopped.
Why do we have to continue to have this silly discussion over and over?
This pricing mechanism is crazy, if we really need the backup power. I mentioned depressed prices for wholesale electricity in Europe. The same thing is happening in California.
http://www.bilderbergmeetings.org/participants.html
Not a single Russian nor Chinese in attendance at the Ring Kissers Ball.
That would be because the El-Ders do not invite anyone who refuses to ring kiss.
No doubt one of the topics will be how to destroy the Russians and the Chinese.
There are some other noteworthy things to mention: Core Agendas: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-08/bilderberg-2016-agenda-trump-brexit-migrants-riots
a) NO Trump as President
b) NO Brexit
c) Ursula von der Leyen (“Flinten Uschi”, Minister of Defence) and Wolfgang Schäuble (“Gollum”, Minister of Finance) where also present – I read it that Leyen may follow up Merkel.
d) ECB had only one member present (Coeuré, Benoît) – they have run out of gun powder…
e) AND: Guy Standing, BIEN (Basic Income Earth Network) was present – they may discuss how to continue BAU and to counter the deflationary trend with some free (helicopter?) money.
“As the world moves towards the abyss of climate change and the evidence of catastrophe solidifies by the day, international agreements and government actions continue to fall far short of what is needed. The empirical evidence unambiguously tells us we have little more than 10 years to make the most profound and difficult changes to our society that will surpass anything from our past. Instead, humankind wraps its arms around the climate change disaster in a suicidal embrace.”
Don’t tell me – the difficult changes involve solar panels and windmills…. queue laughter… great guffaws of laughter….
There are and never were any alternative paths….
“There are and never were any alternative paths….”
BAU to infinity and beyond! –> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejwrxGs_Y_I
What Climate Change? No warming or cooling out of normal recorded since 2000. A bunch of hooey. Climate Liars used to tell us that we’d see increased hurricanes with global warming – whoops! Hurricanes at all time low in the last 10 years. If anything we’re getting stronger winters.
Well, don’t worry about it then. Just go back to what you were doing. I say that because it seems like the climate change deniers are the one’s that get so angry and reactive about the subject. Why do you care if people think there is GW? Does that harm you in some manner?
Bill, below is a link to a website where they discuss ice melt in the arctic. This is still the early part of the melt season so lot’s of people are posting there. I suggest you join in and give those people a piece of your mind – let them have it with both barrels! Four posters in particular are very knowledgble and I’m sure would enjoy a spirited exchange on the topic. Those four are; Chris Reynolds, Colorado Bob, Neven and Jim Hunt.
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/
Maybe we have this all wrong — summer temps hit 30C — massive ice melt raises the sea dramatically — chaos and collapse ensue…
I’d not rule that out
“There are and never were any alternative paths….”
BS!
I can see you wary of posting what these other paths might be….
Do you fear inviting in the facts?
If not — I await enlightenment.
““There are and never were any alternative paths….”
Unless you some kind of determinist (which you well might be, although that sounds like hocuspocus to me) then this statement is silly. You make a choice which foot to slide over the bed in the morning. But then I shouldn’t have to mention, much less offer proof, of something that obvious.
Artleads,
It’s the 2nd law of thermodynamics: any systems irreversibly tends tends towards thermal equilibrium, aka death. 2nd law is certainly not BS.
However, this is the global picture, both in time and space, and it allows a lot of space for many local circonvolutions during the journey. Ironically, the 3rd law of TDs, that says equilibrium should be reached “as fast as possible”, authorizes in this purpose local “areas” of order, of neguentropy if you prefer, which can make us think that Life, for example, is a goal. It isn’t, it’s only a mean to dissipate energy faster, in the great picture of things.
A simple example of such temporary order speeding up the settlement of complete disorder can be taken with a fire happening in a cinema or a night-club: the room is evacuated much faster if people gently queue and make constant flow out of the room, rather than if it’s complete panic and the ways out get “plugged” and people blocked inside. (NB: “disorder” in this example, means people spread outside the zone, without any special interaction between them ; not related to the fire itself, which was for the image.)
The issue was whether or not ““(t)here are and never were any alternative paths….”” Since I assumed organisms, based on their varying circumstances, make changes toward states they find “preferable” (for whatever reason they find them so) it has never struck me that there was never the element of “any alternative.”
Beside, the terminology of the second law I find ugly and cold. Garbage in, garbage out, so to say. I prefer to talk about God. Within the context of glorifying God, the second law might be formulated differently (more beautifully, more “usefully,” etc.)
“Science” has taken us to the brink of the apocalypse, so I’m not sure how useful it always is. I know you think extensively and carefully. BTW, is it true that Sartre didn’t believe in science? If you know, do you know his reasons?
Artleads,
2nd law ugly and cold: I tend to agree, but this is a moral judgement, needs to be defined on what criteria is established. Definition of Beauty is your job, as an artist, not mine (I personally can find beauty in almost anything, but will never make any conclusions from that).
God instead: definitely without me!
Science has brought us on the brink of collapse: False! It’s the not science by itself, but the ways it’s been used and promoted (replace Gods is a famous example of hoax!). The goals that science has been supposed to acheive have overwhelmingly been dictated by those possessing the means to invest in researches aiming to possess ever more. That bloody private property again! Science is only a tool, you can’t seriously blame it for what it is: knowledge (the only valuable thing, for me).
As for Sartres’s opinion about science, I didn’t know and will have to dig a little bit into it (oping what I’ll find fits in with what I just wrote in the above paragraph…).
Artleads,
Had a short glance about Sartre and Science, and what I found is that his opinions were mostly based on social sciences, not the hard ones. His focus was on the place man has to occupy in the society, how he is responsible in building up himself and therefore the whole social structure. As far as I understood, the fundations for a man to make his choices were to be searched towards psychology and psychanalysis (existence preceeding essence, etc..; meaning that a man is, before deciding what to do with himself).
So, in some way, his regard on hard science is same as mine, in that he considers it’s a tool, and responsibility of man is engaged because he has to decide what to do with it.
Sartre thinks that man has duty and reponsibility to make such choices. Not me, especially when it comes to aggregate numbers, where statistical results reign (maybe unfortunately), and hard science then prevails, for accuracy of the global result, which is what is important, in the end of the day.
As for your response to FE, about “no alternative”, I think important to take into consideration the time-frame. I mean, the end of the road is known (cold death), the rules that mostly apply too (he who burns most energy wins), but that shouldn’t empeach us to take sideways and/or step out of the accelerating madness, in order to take deep breathes and -try to- appreciate the harmonies of the world we live in.
I’d add: the Natural world, not what we’ve made of it.
BTW, both are described by Science…
Dear Stefeun,
We don’t seem as different as we might. Have long had a visceral feeling that the way I think derives from my French ancestry. 🙂 My dad was able to trace back to the first “ancestor,” who fled the revolution for Haiti. But neither here nor there.
Recovering from a hospital stay, and so must reduce time here to the essential. I’m totally grateful and intrigued by the Sartres quote. My quick take on it (and I’d welcome your help in clarifying it when you have time) is that his definition of “man” is a moral instead of “scientific” one. That would seem at odds with the second law definition of man and what drives him? Which problemizes such conclusions as there never having been alternatives?
Bonjour Artleads,
Thanks for your stimulating questions, to which I probably won’t answer properly, mostly due to health issues I too have (thanks BAU for the painkillers!).
Firstly, I’m not sure we should try to find moral values in the laws of Physics. If something has to happen, wether it happens over a nanosecond or over a billion years doesn’t fundamentally change the equation. But for us humans this timeframe is crucial, as it determines our actions, that can be totally opposite, based on the size of those “pockets of negentropy” I was talking about earlier (3rd law, aka MEP).
Secondly, I think very important to keep in mind that our reactions must take into account the phase of the cycle we’re in.
I mean: Sartre, Camus and others lived in the 50’s and 60’s, during which energy was cheap and abundant, demand was stong and offer was growing up. It was a growth phase, and the problem then was to try to build up a fair society and define notions like liberty, democracy, reposibility, free-will, etc…, especially after the previous decades (30’s and 40’s) that had seen destruction, crisis, dictatures and so on.
Since late 70’s, early 80’s, we’re in a totally different phase of the cycle, where energy costs are rising, offer is high but demand (affordability, really) is rapidly decreasing. The discussion is (rather: should) no longer about how to buld up a fair society, but how to smoothen a collapse that we now know is inevitable. The discussed topics are obviously very different, as well as the actions we should implement.
Managing the destruction is much harder stuff than arrangeing distribution of the fruits of growth.
I think the “second law definition of man” you’re evoking simply doesn’t exist, since the laws of Physics just exist, wether man is part of the universe they rule, or not. Nothing “moral” in it. Man makes do with the context he’s given at the period he lives in, and puts labels (such as moral values) or pushes this or that lever depending on the possibilities of the moment (but always in the direction of increasing energy use).
Because of the amplitude of our overshoot, it is very possible that next collapse will be so radical that it will wipe out the whole human race, and likely many other species, before starting a new cycle based on much lower energy inputs, and much lower entropy production.
PS: pls note I don’t disparage moral values, they’re very important when we try to set up rules of functioning. Unfortunately, we’ve never been able to grasp the situations in their entirety, and therefore have always established sets of values that are valid for some, and not for others (social laws always favor the ruling-class, westerners are the Haute-Bourgeoisie of Humanity neglecting and pillageing the poorest 85%, etc…).
Nicely said.
It took me decades to realize that my liberal views were subjective interpretations of the world — or at least of how I would like the world to function. Imagine – I used to read the New York Times!!! How delusional I was. Now I wouldn’t even use the NYT to start a fire for fear that the smoke would spread the matrix….
Far wiser men than me never reach the conclusion that we are animals – as you point out they are products of their environments…
When you distill our essence down we are no different than a dog or a cat or a rat…. the only real difference is that we are able to take our behaviour to extremes because we have bigger brains — the battles for survival we wage are seldom ‘you vs me for that bone’ rather they are on a far less personal – more epic scale — ‘I am under the shield of the western team — I do not participate in the violent pillage of others resources so that I can eat — but there can be no doubt — I eat well because my side has won the battle’
Life is so much more simple — and far less frustrating — when you reach these conclusions.
Thanks FE,
Some find it simplistic (contemptuously), but from my part I keep amazed to see how very simple basic rules can lead to very complex systems.
This cutback in investment cuts jobs and energy demand.
Stepheun,
Thanks for all the clear, patient info. I actually have caught up pretty much with the growth vs collapse phases, although I’m not as clear as you. Some issues, however, bear no further discussion, since they are based on differences in how we view reality itself. (Not the issue of the reality of the science). As Cezanne would suggest–that we have to go back to Poussin, and do him over from nature–I suspect that (doing it over) is the direction in which science would take me if there was wherewithal..
“neguentropy” is perhaps the area in which I’ve been unknowingly involved. Thanks for that. Wish you speedy recovery!
Artleads,
Thanks for your words.
Just another piece that might be useful to this discussion, something I like to link to anyhow, because I consider it as full of interesting insights. It’s called “Science and Worldviews”, written by radical ecologist Carolyn Merchant 25 years ago:
http://www.history.vt.edu/Barrow/Hist3706/merchant.html
Well, it is still to be decided if the universe is an open or an isolated system. It could very well be the subject of continous mass and energy injection from outside its boundaries, even though it seems quite unlikely given our current, however limited, understanding of reality.
Thanks for the truly awesome link.
Actually … I am.
The path is the pursuit of more…. the goal… survival…. the conductor : Mr DNA… the means : survival of the fittest… aka competition
This permeates every corner of everyone’s life — but I like to use the corporate world as it best exemplifies the above… it hones the skill required to survive to a sharp edge…
As an entrepreneur one has to be a cunning, aggressive, paranoid beast…
The competition is the enemy …because the enemy wants what you have — or you covet what they have… market share…. you either hold it and grow it — or you die.
There is no room for kindness — any more than there is room for kindness on the plains of Africa…. you let the weak antelope go because you feel sorry for it — another predator will get it…. and soon you are the weak animal because you did not eat that day…. and you are the prey….
The path to where we are now was driven by these UN changeable realities — we exploited fossil fuels and burned them in the pursuit of advantage — a society that eschewed or failed to take advantage of these advancements is a society under the yoke…
Wait a minute you say — you are a minion working at a government job — you are not involved in any sort of competition or survival of the fittest…
To that I say the only reason you are in that position is because the country you live in has fought the battle for you by proxy …. your country has a surplus that allows for people to be in your position because your country has used cunning and force to get a huge hunk of the meat… and some of the meat is shared with you and others like you ..
But make no mistake — this all comes back to one thing and one thing only — the quest for more and the survival of the fittest.
There is no other path. Any other path would have lead to our extinction long ago.
Fight for every scrap — or be slaughtered.
FE, Evolution is equally as powerful in adapting to new habitats. That is being fit enough to survive in new usually harsh, colder, toxic and dangerous areas where to multiply and dominate, while leaving the ancestors behind, fighting tooth and nails for what little is left.
Thus, survival of the fittest is implemented when the main feature, multiply and dominate, of evolution has run its course. The excesses and bloat of the previous stage will be purged.
Death is a planned obsolescence, the race for new habitats and better adaptions must continue. In with the new, out with the old.
Evolution is the mechanism that makes us better at surviving in different environments — ensuring Mr DNA survives and continues….
Yes, inter- and intraspeies competition and environment adaptations for new habitats to proliferate in.
Artleads, I may be wrong but I think you need some reading to get you up to speed. Theses are the pertinent books I have in my Kindle and Audible library, most are popular writings and not too hard to fathom. I can assure you, that you are NOT in charge of your brain. The brain creates your reality. You need to read a lot to come to grips with it…….I still don’t but I accept it. I travel a lot, so I tend to use the Audible versions the most. When home though I read the Kindle. The reason I went digital is because there is no room left at home to store the hard copies. I can tell you it’s a bloody nightmare when you move house.
Consciousness: A Very Short Introduction (Very Short Introductions)
The Believing Brain….Michael Shermer
The Idiot Brain……Dean Burnett
The Self Illusion…..Bruce Hood
How We Decide…… Jonah Lehrer
How The Mind Works……..Steven Pinker
The Modern Scholar: Evolutionary psychology 1: The Science Of Human Nature. Allen MacNeill
The Modern Scholar: Evolutionary psychology Part II: The Science Of Human Nature.
You Are Not So Smart………David McRaney
Evolutionary Explanations Of Human Behaviour….. John H. Cartwright
I have these also…
What Makes Your Brain Happy And Why You Should Do The Opposite
Too Smart For Our Own Good
Caveman Logic
and a few others.
Mr DNA is ultimately in control.
Our behaviour is dictated by survival and procreation. Every action – every movement – every desire – every thing you do in your life — ultimately is driven by your DNA …. we are hardwired from conception.
We are no different than any other predator species. We just think we are.
I like to explain it this way.
Put 10 hungry dogs in a cage and throw in 100 large pieces of meat.
Put 10 hungry dogs in a cage and throw in one piece of meat.
Put 10 hungry humans in a cage and delivery 50 pizzas.
Put 10 hungry humans in a cage and deliver 1 pizza.
The only difference here is that the humans can dial the phone.
It is very difficult to fool Mr DNA. Let me prove the point:
Hands up those who have not participated in Mr DNA’s breeding programme.
Hands up those who have given Mr DNA the middle finger and jumped from a tall building or in front of a bus.
http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/08/linkedin-job-postings-plunge-may-by-far-the-worst-month-since-january-2009/
Will we make it to Christmas….
…..But we in the US were told we have 4.7% unemployment, which is essentially full employment in the US. When it comes to politicians it just goes to show “how figures lie and liars figure”.
Oh, and it’s probably nothing but recently Americans out of the workforce hit 103 million.
All those Federal stats offered up to ‘the people’ have been redefined so many times they no longer have any relevance, in particular unemployment which only includes those receiving unemployment benefits, not those unemployed with no benefits or benefits that ran out but are still unemployed. And if someone is self employed, then loses their source of income they aren’t counted. It’s a minimalist number not reflecting a realistic idea of unemployment. It’s called propaganda.
GDP in the US was recently redefined to include an estimate of illegal street drugs sold. In Italy they recently included est. illegal drugs and prostitution. Many Euro countries are doing the same thing. If they didn’t they would have been reporting negative GDP’s which then would god forbid admit a recession. It’s really gotten disgusting how obvious it is they do this. Remember Obama claiming when he was running for prez he would make everything that is happening transparent and provide realistic accounting? That never happened. In fact the opposite happened by further eroding our trust by redefining those stats until they have no realistic meaning.
Job posts falling are not good!
$50 per barrel oil is fine provided the other sectors of our economy do not see huge runups in prices. In the 1990 tech boom with uncoupling of gold to dollar we saw housing & car price spikes. After great recession in 2008 when interest rates dropped to zero under Obama (bernanke & yellen) we have seen housing & auto prices rebound and soar as if part of a great recovery – a recovery which doesn’t exist. Since gold was uncoupled from our dollar, the treasury prints way too many dollars, and big ticket item prices have soared and created the need for people’s wages to keep going up. This combined with horrible trade deals from NAFTA, China , etc. have stripped our manufacturing jobs and laid waste to our middle class.
Before gold was uncoupled to the dollar, auto, food & housing prices stayed relatively flat since the late 1800s. The cost of a new car in 1940 was $1,800. In 1950 was $2,100. In 1970 $3,200. In 1980 $5,100 (huge jump). In 1990 $14,000 (huge jump). In 2000 $26,000 (huge jump). Housing prices followed a similar pattern. Our country saw small annual rise in housing prices attributable to owner interest & small inflation until gold is decoupled and interest rates brought down, then we see huge spikes in prices. The real answer to get housing & transportation prices down is gold backed currency with responsible fiscal treasury policy of 7% or higher fed borrowing rates, and for our government to stop printing money and running deficits.
If the cost of borrowing is much higher, the cost of big ticket items comes way down, making $7 per hour a livable wage, lowering trade deficits and getting our manufacturing jobs back.
Before we write a column titled “$50 Oil doesn’t work” we MUST examine why it doesn’t work and blame the parties responsible. (In 1940-1980 $50 oil would be too expensive.) Otherwise we’re just arguing in a vacuum.
You are missing the point that we need cheap-to-produce energy to run our system. We can temporarily make it look like expensive energy can run the system, by ramping up a lot of debt, and creating inflation.
Recoupling gold with the dollar won’t fix our problems either. We need more jobs that pay well, and such jobs are generally the by-product of economic growth that comes by adding more machines and other devices (using energy) to leverage our human energy. Fixing the financial system cannot by itself fix the system. By the way, did you notice that a lot of inflation changes recently have been negative? Recoupling would presumably work the opposite way for those. (Not sure if it really would, if larger quantity is being produced.)
It is not tractable to increase salaries if the productivity of a common worker is stagnant. As technology advances, productivity isn’t measured in the amount of trivial physical activity performed, rather the quality of mental activity. Affordability and the lack of productivity increases are compounding in the current predicament.
I would agree. Historically, human productivity gains seem to be tied to increasing leverage of human energy with supplemental energy. But now, with the use of computers and the Internet, even mental activity is being substituted away. Humans have little way of adding value–there is too much substituting of supplemental energy for human energy.
Gail,
Your principle of productivity being result of leveraging human works remains valid, since information is a form of energy.
In fact it’s a little bit more complex, but suffice to know that information allows an increase of energy consumption, by replication of the processes at work.
These processes can thus be supported by very light proper infrastructure and multiplicated at will). That’s why nowadays very few humans are required to implement and run (and take profit from) very big parts of the newest branches of the global economy.
I guess.
It seems like programmers are very much involved with this information flow.
In esscence, humans are becoming increasingly obsolete, yet BAU is utterly dependent on human needs and our consumption.
Thus, BAU is like a parasite that is speeding up devouring its host, Earth and Mankind, from the inside, a host which has long since stopped growing.
ECB starts buying corporate bonds in new attempt to revive inflation
http://www.reuters.com/article/ecb-policy-bonds-idUSL8N18Z41I
What the system really needs is just the opposite as in “deflation” but that’s not allowed in our Bankster debt based money system or the whole thing collapses. A debt jubilee is what the world really needs to reset this flawed Ponzi scheme debt based money system to let it live another day.
The overall problem is that the 99% are essentially tapped out so introducing more inflation just piles onto an already delicate conundrum. The other problem is that governments “LIE” about inflation. It’s there in the things you need. An example of this is the price of ground turkey. In 8 years the price went from $2.49 lb. to $5.79 lb.
Then you have packages that are shrinking in size from a half gallon to 1.5 qt but the price continues to climb. A year ago peaches and nectarines were $1.99 lb on avg, now they are hitting $3.99 lb.
There’s your inflation !
Remember the mini Debt Jubilee in 2008 involving Lehman Brothers that seized up the global economy?
I don’t image we’ll be trying anything like that again.
And in any event – I don’t see how that fixes the end of cheap oil problem… if anything it would end BAU instantly.
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This new study by David Korowicz explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. He uses a scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world.
http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/Trade_Off_Korowicz.pdf
Could Brexit trigger this scenario FE?
If it has that potential then it won’t be allowed to happen.
Remember what happened to Berlusconi when he pushed back against the central banks?
You do not mess with the men that control the world — unless you are armed with nuclear weapons….
Everything is at stake here — the central bankers won’t let silly democracy upset the cart — they’d fake the numbers on the vote if it was important enough to do so.
That said — Brexit could be used as the false flag bringing us to the next phase of the crisis…. I wouldn’t rule that out.
Just as Lehman justified the draconian actions that followed.
Fresh Fruit is a really bad metric. Where I live peppers will fluctuate from 99 cents a pound to $5.00 a pound in a single year. Buying in season matters.
Interest rates everywhere are going lower, thanks to this effort.
Not Europe, but related to negative interest rates: There was a WSJ article today called, Japan’s largest bank considers quitting role in government bond-market: Lender’s possible action emphasizes frustration over Bank of Japan’s negative-rate policy. According to the article:
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Another great farmer and teacher/author has left us to carry on
http://www.jeffersonsdaughters.com/2016/06/01/memoriam-gene-logsdon/#comment-102652
“Gene Logsdon, The Contrary Farmer, died of cancer at the age of 84 yesterday morning at his home in Ohio.
Born in 1932, Gene’s entire family was made up of farmers and he spent his life either farming or writing about it. Even during his years in the seminary, what he loved was working the farm. The priesthood wasn’t for him, though, and he fell in love with and married Carol, raised two kids and bought his own 30 acres where he experimented with all sorts of things conventional farmers turned their noses up at.
…No subject was safe from Gene’s pen, whether it was the beauty of a wildflower, the strong connection between agriculture and art, the idiocy of bureaucrats or the joys of manure (one of his recent books was titled Holy Shit). In addition to reading most of his books, I followed him at The Contrary Farmer blog for years, discussing with him and like-minded folks a wide variety of topics related to whatever his free-ranging mind became engaged with. Last year, when he told us about his cancer diagnosis, a number of us wrote a tribute to him and Carol — although we hoped he would beat the big C, we wanted him to know how much he meant to us. I think it was the first time Gene was ever speechless…
His publisher, Dave Smith, plans to keep the Contrary Farmer blog online, so if you’ve never read any of Gene’s material, you might want to stop by”
https://thecontraryfarmer.wordpress.com/2016/05/31/farewell-dear-gene/
For those that plan to raise food crops as either farmers or gardeners seek and thou shall find
As we see… farming was the beginning of the end for humans….
Why, years after the banking crisis, is the global economy still mired in recession and burdened by enormous debts? Why have the tried-and-tested economic policies of the past failed us this time?
In Life After Growth, leading City analyst Tim Morgan sets out a ground-breaking analysis of how the economy really works. Economists are mistaken, he argues, when they limit their interpretation of the economy to matters of money. Ultimately, the economy is an energy system, not a monetary one.
From this, it follows that we need to think in terms of two economies, not one – a ‘real’ economy of work, energy, resources, goods and services, and a parallel, ‘financial’ economy of money and debt. These two economies have parted company, allowing the financial economy to pile up promises that the real economy cannot meet.
Starting with the discovery of agriculture, Tim Morgan traces the rise of the economy in terms of work, energy and resources. The driving factor, he explains, has been cheap and abundant energy. As energy has become increasingly costly to obtain, the potential for prosperity has diminished, to the point where growth in the real economy has ceased.
An immediate problem is that our commitments – including debt, investments and welfare promises – cannot be honoured, which means that we can expect the financial system to be wracked by value destruction. At the same time, we need to adapt to a future in which prosperity can no longer be taken for granted.
https://www.amazon.com/Life-After-Growth-global-economy-ebook/dp/B00F3D8M2C
Here we go again Fast Eddy…if you feel that way stop farming/gardening at your patch of dirt, Son. As a matter of fact, your endless repetition on this topics have been rather mundane.
Now, where are my two critics that directed posts in a rather derogatory tone?
Please, here is your opportunity to direct a comment to the other half.
Common phenomenon and Norm…yes, I mean you two guys.
Tell Fast Eddy to establish a blog of his own and continue his endless rant.
Seems he does not have right stuff to embark on his own.
Aw, give FE a break. No one takes him seriously and he is a wonderful source of good repetitive humor.
Give him a break? Kurt, was your name in my comment? If no one takes him seriously as you state, what good is he? Source of humour? At whose expense?
Listen Kurt, if that is so, urge him to start his own blog and you and others with the same like minded juvenile mentality can laugh all you wish…some people.
Actually …. the song that keeps playing over and over on FW is Koombaya…
I am only responding to the DelusiSTANians who post the same rubbish over and over and over again … otherwise the FW would be overwhelmed by hordes of incoherent thoughts…
It seems to come in waves… we get the EV proponents…they get smashed to pieces by the facts… then the solar groupies… and windmill lovers club…. they get hit in the head and go away… but they all come back … they are if anything relentless in their attempts to destroy the Kingdom of RealitySTAN….
They must be beaten off … we must be diligent in our efforts to preserve the single remaining bastion of sanity on the planet
But the worst of the lot are the Scott Nearing Farming Deviants who believe that if we all just emulated Scott we’d be saved … they never seem to leave us…
I am wondering if this is a genetic flaw…. kinda like being born with half a brain even though you have a whole brain …
They are much like HIV… they can be kept under control but never completely eliminated…
Could it be that such people were dropped on their heads many times as children…
Might even be a result of mothers ingesting Drano or some other chemical … while pregnant…
Too much LSD perhaps? I understand that such a habit can really damage the IQ….
I am really not sure … but no matter what the facts are they will never see the light…
Let’s try and dump a cauldron of hot oil on the hordes and see what happens….
Farming = overpopulation = extinction. 1 + 1 = 2….
Oh I see.,.. it equals whatever one wants it to equal… or whatever you imagine it equals…
Maybe I need to call Tony ….
Actually FE, I think you can go one step farther back from agriculture on our evelotionary path and state that the moment we were able to Think, Remember, and Anticipate, we were pretty much doomed because it gave us the ability to change our environment. From that point onward, we were in a heap of trouble a species.
Yes – we were the planet’s disastrous aberration long before we really got things going with the adoption of farming.
I will not enjoy perishing personally — however I when that bottle of champagne pops at the end of BAU — this will be the toast:
:ad exitium humani generis’
Actually the problem probably even started before the advent of DNA, its precursor, self replicating evolutionary molecules. That is the source of the problems. Oh, wait, 100% of the genome stems from the first succesful replication. Thus we are all relatives and related to the first instance of self replication.
And yes, that includes trees, flower, birds and all that makes earth, blue, green beautiful and lush. Before self replicating molecules, it was just another dead rock in the solar system.
FE enjoys the nihilist idea of walking hand in hand towards a common extinction. Will this happen? Quite possible, perhaps just as possible as a major comet strike. But to argue that farming is the ultimate cause is overly simplistic.
The freak show that we call home sapien is the problem — form day one.
Fire and farming would be two of the milestones on the way to extinction — the use of fossil fuels and the green revolution would be two others.
In any event … Scott Nearing is a false idol. Scott Mao Nearing.
I, as The One, consider all forms of life as a cancer on this beautiful planetary rock slowly revolving around sol, peacefully located on the outskirts of the milky way in the otherwise clean and pure null, void and nothingness of interstellar space.
Oh yes, I am Pure Freddy, the arbiter of good taste. Bow beneth my excellence and ideals. Because I am the One, the arbiter, the man, the myth, the concept.
Veggie,
Since you refer to species, thus implicitly to human superiority, let me throw my 2 cents.
IMO, Think, Remember and Anticipate are not specifically human.
Any living being has some kind of representation of its environment, necessary to trigger its reactions to various stimuli. This, even at a very basic level, can be labelled “thinking”, or sort of.
Remember: same principle, what has worked better once, is registered and re-used as a reaction to same (or similar) stimulus. Stored behavior, aka memory, activable on demand. Very efficient process, a dog, or an elephant, can store huge amount of informations about various topics.
Anticipate: similar, but maybe taking its origins on annual cycles. Better take a few examples: birds increasing the size of their liver before migration, hibernating animals taking as much fat as they can before winter sleeping, squirrels storing grains before winter, etc…
So, in my view it isn’t a matter of quality, but of quantity, since those processes are used by many species, albeit at various degrees. Maybe you mean Consciousness, which introduces a notion of doing things with volunty and responsibility. For me, those notions are very blurred, mostly because of the difficulty of defining an individual that is very complex and subjective (an entity without any context nor relationship with its environment is a non-being, for me).
I persist in thinking that consciousness is just another evolutionary tool that gave us the possibility to increase our abstraction powers by one or more order(s) of magnitude, thus providing us decisive advantage over other species.
And that was made possible by what really differentates us from other species, that is the use of fire, the control of extra-corporal ENERGY (first burning wood for cooking, then …you know the story). That has been a co-evolution over a very long period of time, nevertheless a very efficient self-reinforcing loop that allowed us to burn exponentially more and more energy, eventually leading us to this death-trap where we’re finding us today.
“I persist in thinking that consciousness is just another evolutionary tool that gave us the possibility to increase our abstraction powers by one or more order(s) of magnitude, thus providing us decisive advantage over other species.” – Good point.
I suppose we don’t really know whether animals have consciousness. Language would seem to help in this consciousness. For example, the use of tools by crows would seem to require some planning. http://www.onekind.org/education/animal_sentience/tool_use/tool_use_in_new_caledonia_crows/ Do they have consciousness?
IMO until humans began to engineer, we were just another run-of-the-mill animal. It was engineering that allowed us to hunt big game, use their hides and build dwellings. Then we could farm with engineered tools and herd. From those beginnings we could protect territory, create gods and make war.
Cooking our food helped our brains grow bigger, since we didn’t need to such large teeth and jaws and digestive apparatus. It came first.
Like this?
https://aznbadger.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/18909-18946.jpg
I’m sorry I could reply earlier, we are moving house.
It might come down to chicken and egg sort of thing. I don’t think being cooked meat eaters defines us as being human. It was a gradual process and maybe growing a brain and engineering went lock step. Overall though I’d maintain my assumption that our engineering abilities defines us. We could of trapped fish and collected eggs for protein but our engineering (spears, flints, hand axes, etc) ability to hunt big game and our engineering ability to make use of it by cooking and skinning made us the baddest kid on the block.
It’s a fun topic to debate and being right or wrong at this late stage won’t help us.
Indeed, the source of our bliss and doom is our biological computer. From its most primitive reptilian section and to the more large abstract reasoning regions. It merely executes along the path that evolution set forth. Thus language, cooking, hunting, farming, and creating machines to do our bidding.
Stilgar might be correct about the peak… but his $60 will never come true though.
It looks like we finally reached the top. This is as good as it gets.
The next good news is that it usually goes faster downhill.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Total-World-Supply.jpg
I wouldn’t take account of projections of increasing oil production until they happen. We’ll have to wait and see what happens, Yoshua. Here’s an article explaining the reasons for the price rise.
– Nigeria reduction in production (mostly due to attacks on pipelines)
– China’s economy stabilizing with demand firming
– US oil stockpile reduction
– Dropping value of the dollar (due to delays in raising Fed interest rate)
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKCN0YU05Z
It took a lot of money and energy to build up the production to 97 million barrels per day. I believe it was in 2014 when they spent $700 billion in capex and could only find 3,5 billion barrels of new oil to replace their reserves.
I believe that the oil companies are just pumping and maintaining existing reserves today. They spend less money to try to maintain a positive cash flow and are using less energy to explore and drill new reserves, which is very energy intensive. (No I don’t work in the industry and I don’t know what I’m talking about… but anyway).
The idea is: since the oil industry is burning less money and energy they are now able to deliver more oil to the market… which has caused a temporary glut which will keep the oil price down… at least until their reserves run dry and they go out of business.
http://crudeoilpeak.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/CAPEX_oil_gas_vs_crude-NGL_production_IEA_1985-2016E.jpg
I think you’ll find it’s a cyclical business until such time it does go completely out of business. I use to work for Haliburton Services, first in Colorado then later in the North Sea off of Aberdeen, Scotland on the BP 40’s (4 rigs close together). Also worked on another rig that later burned and many on it perished. At the time it was booming, but later my step brother got laid off by Haliburton when the price dropped in the 80’s when he worked in Oxnard, CA. I was a pump operator and he was a tool-man. He went to a special haliburton school to learn how to use the tools that get sent down the casing. He had to know calculus and trig to get the information needed by the rig operator. It drove me crazy though being on the rigs for a week straight. I’d kind of go stir crazy so after a year I headed back to the states. I’d had some fun drinking pints of Guinness on tap and having Grouse Whiskey with friends and workmates. Good to experience different things in life. Fun also to visit distillery’s in the highlands. Had a Scottish lass for a girlfriend.
Anyway, the price of oil historically rises and falls – nothing new there. People in the business have a history of layoffs and re-hiring. The rising price will now start to take pressure off of the industry and start to take a toll on the consumer. So there’s no time off in the trek to peak oil. I think it will end up in the $65-75 dollar a barrel range, then fracking will take off again, stopping the price from rising any further.
But who knows for sure – we’ll find out soon enough.
That’s a great story to tell your grand children if we survive this “cyclical business”.
It just happens that I meet your former boss today.
http://i297.photobucket.com/albums/mm208/vixenstrangely/dickcheneyevil.jpg
Meanwhile… WTI is $51,36… up $1,00 today !
1 buck a day over 30 days would raise price $30 dollars so a buck a day is a big increase! Thanks for pointing that out.
Bosses are on site not in an office building wherever their home office is located. But funny pic of Cheney anyway, and good try attempting to tie me to Cheney. I got a good laugh out of it.
Remember when Cheney blamed his fellow hunting partner because he got his face in the way of his shotgun. Good thing it only grazed the guy with bb’s or Cheney would have gotten real mad!
Don’t worry about price rising. It just keeps the ball rolling a little longer and now puts the pressure back on to the consumer. It doesn’t really matter whether the pressure is on the oil companies or the consumer, all arrows point to peak oil.
Yoshua, went back and read your post – maybe I jumped to conclusions when I saw the pic of Cheney – anyway, just ckd oil price and Brent has gone up to $52.74, now only $7.26 from $60. My prediction could come true – now that would be a miracle because we know how hard it is to predict price and when it will hit that price range.
Here’s another prediction that may not be too popular. I think Shortonoil’s/The Hills Group oil price maximum value to the economy, which presumably means the maximum it will sell for, will come to pass as completely inaccurate. This year they have 66, then next year 56 with price dropping until it hits something like 19 dollars a barrel in 2020. Speaking of which where the heck has Don Stewart been?
Here’s a funny sideline story: We had a 12 year old niece visit and my wife gave her some clay to make things out of and she was planning to make charms for her friends. Her and our sister in law flew back to LA and were taken into a side room by NSA officers to question them about the substance. LOL! She has this squeaky high voice and we could just imagine her answering questions.
I think I hurt Don’s feelings. He worships The Hills Group.
I saw Edo mentioned yesterday …. wonder if Don has reincarnated…
I can imagine that the last post regarding the correlation between farming and overpopulation has sent a lot of Koombayers to the pharmacy for Abilify…. they’ll be in deep stupor for the next few days…. unable to type… barely able to function ….
But alas they will be back… they always come back….
Thanks Stilgar,
Good to hear what backs your personal price forecast.
Your welcome, Stefeun. Should be interesting to see how the consumer handles a higher oil price. At what price point does the world economy begin to stall and is that price sufficient for much of the non-conventional like tar sands, Orinoco heavy oil and fracking. What price encourages scraping the bottom of the barrel and can the consumer handle it? Guess we’re going to find out.
Stilgar,
I made you an answer, which vanished (even copy/paste backup didn’t work!!!).
Hope it’ll display soon, too lazy to re-make it.
Nothing is hiding in the spam filter right now. I am guessing the comment was too “deep” on this thread, and got lost for that reason. Try the comment again as the first comment in a thread.
I am presuming that I can write a comment, even when others can’t.
Remember that the Hills Group price is the annual average price, inflation adjusted if I remember correctly, I haven’t done the math lately but I don’t think we are close yet to $66
It is possible that the oil price will rise some more. But it really can’t go back into the $100+ per barrel range for long periods. This is what it would take to get most unconventional and deep water oil production going. Debt defaults of US shale producers will likely still continue even with $60 and $70 oil–perhaps some who bought land after bankruptcy and signed new less-generous lease agreements can do all right, but those who are tied into high costs likely will still have a problem.
I am wondering … at what point to oil producers completely stop investing in looking for more oil in order to stem the bleeding … and just pump from previously sunk wells…
If producers need over $100 to break even … perhaps slashing capex brings break even down to a much lower point … delaying the big bang …
Oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia could also slash social programmes aimed at quelling the masses and resort to martial law machine gunning anyone who attempts to riot….
That would also bring down the break even costs quite a bit….
Whatever it takes….
Nice to see something that looks this practical. But you’d have to prevent the social uprising as part of that to make it work. I miss Don Stewart’s research on new ways to think about behavioral change.
Perhaps Don tried an experiment trying to see if a tiger could be taught to change it’s behaviour and brought one into his house as a pet …
That would explain his absence….
“Perhaps Don tried an experiment trying to see if a tiger could be taught to change it’s behaviour and brought one into his house as a pet …
That would explain his absence….”
Apart from gratuitous rudeness, what does this have to do with human behavior change?
Perhaps what I am demonstrating is that believing you can change the nature of a human — or any animal – is totally ridiculous … that it is in fact folly…. using the example of the tiger…
Most likely. The saudis will probably relatively soon eat western produced hot lead. KSA seem filled to the brim with 99.99% nonproductive compulsive consumerist breeders. Good riddance.
Stilgar, out of those I would only take issue with the word ‘stabilizing’ in relation to China. A further injection of credit when, broadly, it is already taking four units of credit for them to generate one unit of growth is akin to giving an exhausted athlete amphetamines in the hope of boosting his performance. A coronary will eventuate. Here is a quote to conjur with:
‘There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.’ (Economist Ludwig Von Mises)
I am liking that quote
Agreed!
Harry, the bullet in my post regarding China stabilizing was directly from the article. I wasn’t certifying the claim, just reprinting it because those kind of things even if they are untrue, will affect investment interest in oil. Who knows what the potential investor knows about China, but sure enough some investors will buy that claim.
I thought it was an unusually upbeat assessment for you, Stilgar, lol. Fast Eddy, here’s another quote that amused me:
“Data disappears when it becomes negative,” said Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder of J Capital Research, which analyzes the Chinese economy..
“When you go around and meet state-owned industry people, everybody laughs at the national statistics, so I don’t know why foreigners believe them.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/26/business/international/china-data-slowing-economy.html?ref=international&_r=2
That’s a classic!
45% of the trillion+ new stimulus in Q1 went to insolvent companies allowing them to make interest payments on loans they will never repay
If I were running one of these companies – I’d be laughing at those stats — and I would be borrowing as much that 45% as possible — I’d be stripping my company — and I’d be buying real estate in Vancouver too!
The rats are getting off the ship – before it’s too late…. of course all the ships are chained together so they will not escape the fate that awaits everyone….
Standards are very different in different countries. There was a recent article in the Atlanta Journal Constitution (and probably elsewhere) about the rate of cheating among university students seeming to be much higher among foreign students, particularly Chinese students. Someone was quoted as saying that in China, cheating was OK if you didn’t get caught. The percentage of US students caught cheating was about 1%, while the percentage of foreign students (all countries) caught cheating was about 5%, IRRC.
The Industry of Cheating….
For most people, essay writing becomes a thing of the past as soon as they step out of university and prepare themselves for the world of work.
But for others, the dissertation is just the beginning. That is because it has become increasingly easy to make money out of the very thing students spend three or four years paying to do at university: coursework.
The essay writing industry – where a third party writes tailor-made pieces of work for paying students – is thriving. And as the briefest of online searches will show, there are now swathes of companies offering to help struggling undergraduates with their work in return for cash.
Ethically, there have long been doubts over the practice. But financially, there are fewer concerns than ever.
All Answers Ltd, one of the biggest players in the essay-writing business, has grown 10pc year on year, it said, while the boss of one its rivals, Essay Writer, believes the industry is now worth around £100m.
The business model is simple. The established companies such as All Answers and Essay Writer both have a pool of writers who each have specialist areas. When a customer gets in touch, the essay is commissioned to the writer, who then takes a cut of the fee.
All Answers – who last year had over 16,000 customers – charges £155 for an essay of “undergraduate 2:1” standard, and £357 for an “undergraduate upper 1st” piece of work, while 42pc of their turnover goes to their researchers.
The average order for rival company Essay Writer is £350 but can rise as high as £10,000 or £15,000, according to general manager David Burton.
“It is an expensive service,” he says adding that the business will remain profitable “as long as there is demand”.
More http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/29/essay-writing-industry-booms-as-students-demand-tailor-made-cour/
Foreign students are already paying high out of state tuition. They can often afford to pay for services such as these. At the same time, they no doubt fear disgrace if they come back home without a degree.
Oil Prices Will Head Back Down, Here’s Why
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-06-07/oil-prices-will-head-back-down-here-s-why
I think people living in remote northern Australia may have a chance if they know the watering ponds and rainfall patterns. There are many kinds of large introduced mammals living wild and in very large numbers up there now. Good hunting. Camels, buffalo, pigs, horses, donkeys.
Large animals will be gone very soon after or before collapse, unless you have the only gun on the continent
Correct. Humans completely wiped out the large animals in places like New Zealand hundreds of years ago — and they didn’t have guns — and they were nowhere as numerous as we are now
In Sweden we have about 5 kg elk meat per capita walking around in the woods, maybe 5 kg more meat all other animals combined. How long will this last?
The relatively large amounts of larger game, such as moose, in Sweden is due to the FF enabled mechanized forestry, creating an abundance of leafy vegetation that the animals eat. Though the Swedish forest industrial complex view the animals as a pest because of property damage they cause. But I digress.
Now, getting 5kg of wild game meat isnt quite as simple as taking a stroll to the nearest supermarket. Wild game have always been a luxury in the human diet. We are mainly herbivores anatomically and our bodies sickens with overconsuming animal products.
What made the humans proliferate was the knowledge of cooking, thereby freeing up sugars from starchy vegetables such as potatoes. They are also easier to store for longer amounts of time and can be used as a seed the following year, compared with animal meats. Also, they can not flee from you.
I would probably suggest trying to buy some land in the north and learn how to grow potato, instead of worrying about hunting large wild game. Perhaps get an air rifle to keep pests away and introduce some smaller game to the potato based stew.
And yeah, the frosty northern winters will purge any serious human competition. It is the perfect hunting season. Well, until the radioactivity becomes too damaging. If one are inclined on believing in a fast collapse scenario.
Though, I’m not convinced it will. The TPTB are too aware of the perils of a deflationary death spiral to let it happen.
BAU will be patched up until the bitter end of cheap energy.
I think we mostly agree. 5-10 kg is not much. You can feed the entire population one week longer.
I believe the moosepopulation is kept artificially low to protect forests, crops and eliminate car accidents. But there will not be a time to increase it by 3-5x between bau and collapse.
Not many men with rifles decimated massive populations of large game in North America — including nearly all buffalo herds…. if not for preservation efforts there would not be a single deer or moose remaining on the continent.
There are now hundreds of millions of guns in Canada and America.
Unless you believe in a matter-of-weeks collapse, there will come a time when poaching becomes rational, and that will quickly reduce game population to insignificance.
“The TPTB are too aware of the perils of a deflationary death spiral to let it happen. BAU will be patched up until the bitter end of cheap energy”
It is being patched up and has been for many years now. As we are seeing now — the stimulus policies are starting not to work — in spite of massive stimulus corporate profits are declining rapidly quarter after quarter — global demand is stagnating…
The bitter end is fast approaching and it does not matter what the El-ders want – I am sure they also want another Ghawar about now… they ain’t going to get it .. but they are going to get the deflation
What will be will be. Que sera sera…
FE and DJ, Fast collapse scenario below:
Though, the limiting factor will be the ammo, not guns, and gangs/bands killing each other over the canned foods, alcohol, toilet paper, women, you know, the dwindling regular BAU goodies.
Hunting wild game for food, that is hard and requires skills not only in hunting but also butchery, preservation techniques and storage. Unless one want to waste at least one bullet for a few meals until the meat starts to decompose.
Today, very few people, including myself as a hunter, could take care of a 500kg moose post BAU. Growing potatoe on the other hand, thats mostly hard work and little skills. Supplementing the stew with some smaller rodents and birds occasionally. The salt will be sorely missed though.
Yes bullets will be an issue — but in the meantime there must be billions of bullets available in a place like the US…. more than enough to kill everything that moves…
Just thinking — the ultimate barter option just might be bullets — you can store them for years without any degradation … you can use them for defense…. you could trade them for just about anything because everyone will need them to maintain security and to try protect their hoards of canned food….
Unfortunately … the spent fuel ponds moots that idea.
FE, stimulus jobs programs have been around since at least the 60’s in Sweden, at that time the automation started to decimate factory jobs. Besides, the infrastructure needed some bettering and the Swedish countryside should be depopulated, towns enlarged, for the FF enabled consumerism to take a hold. But I guess it was mostly the same all over the western world?
Yeah, the Ghawar question is perplexing. It will be interesting to watch how TPTB/Elders will respond to this shortfall if it depletes rapidly in the near future. My guess is that it is already accounted for and in the plan of population decimation.
Indeed time will tell. I’m wishing that I or people I care about dont have to starve or suffer too badly if it would cometh to a fast collapse scenario. Anyhow I’m saving one last .308 round for myself. If you know what I mean.
I am thinking of starting up a website http://www.endofdaysluxurygiftpacks.com — free WW delivery. Includes an excellent bottle of champagne with solar powered ice pack — caviar — cheeses — and various other delights including a family pack of Jim Jones Purple Specials
I will see if Chris Martenson will have me on a podcast to promote this —- wonder if he takes a cut of sales or if it’s a flat fee?
Carl Linnaeus travelled a lot in Sweden back in the 18th century. He didn’t see one single wild moose in any of his travels. Today it’s hard to avoid seeing a moose when travelling. Look what FF can achieve…
0.08 elks observed for each man hour just sitting around. That would quickly go to zero with unregulated hunting.
I had a conversation back in 2008 with a blackberry plant customer here at my farm. We were having a little chat after we got settled up and got his plants loaded. This fellow had some country in him but he appeared to be making good money at the time. He had one of those deluxe pickups and nice clean clothes. He said he worked for a grocery chain as computer programmer. The price of gasoline came up and he said there was only three days inventory in those stores and that if
“those trucks ever stop running there won’t be a dog or cat anywhere inside of a week.”
I respected his grasp of the situation at the time and that respect has only increased since then. After I started reading DO THE MATH, I thought about doing the math on those dogs and cats. I don’t know much math but I can do some arithmetic on my calculator. So I looked it up and The Pet Food Institute estimates that there are 75 million dogs and 85 million cats in the US. I rounded off the US population to 313 million people and divided into 75 million dogs and got .2396 dogs per person. And I divided 85 million cats by 313 million people and got .2715 cats per person.
So if the stores are cleaned out in 3 days and we start in on the dogs and cats, does approximately a quarter of a dog and a quarter of a cat seem reasonable for 4 days of food for the average American?
I’m not sure about that but it would probably beat no food for 4 days. The numbers don’t add up for the US lifestyle. Fission power plants and greenhouses on Mars aren’t going to put food on the table for 10 billion people. Something’s got to give.
The end game is comprehensive global famine compounded by disease, violence and radiation poisoning.
The human is a very robust, smart, adaptable vermin…. it takes extreme measures to eradicate them completely.
Fortunately their intelligence also works against them as they are the architects of their own downfall … what with their green revolution that will result in total starvation and their spent fuel ponds…. they also suffer from extreme hubris.
Right!
Very few people will be able to survive in the north of Australia. It is a brutal place where water, not guns and bullets, decides survival ratios. For the few who can manage the water problem – probably natives – game will be plentiful.
I shouldnt argue about things I don’t know about, but I suspect you wastly overestimate the amount of game.
If water is that hard to find I suspect the big game hunting will be very easy compared to in climates where water is everywhere.
The Big Island in Hawaii also has a large number of introduced mammals living wild. It also has bread trees that can provide a significant number of calories.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent hit $51.46 today which is only $8.54 below my prediction just before thanksgiving 2015 for oil price to rise into the $60-80 dollar range in the latter half of 2016. Still have lots of time to hit that range with price momentum headed up.
Rural India will definitely be affected — they use ‘stuff’ provided by BAU… including petrol and fertilizers … they also get to starve as well… when things go sideways in the cities…. the hordes will return to the villages….
The only places that will not be affected would be the most remote tribes … those in the Amazon… Papua… Irian Jaya….
Although they will die as well – invisible clouds of death will visit them in the form of radiation poisoning.
Well…. lets agree to disagree in the immediate radiation death when several large banks fail. My time in India showed me places where time stood still. Villages and farms still living in the 1800’s. Only oxen and manpower do the work.
Of course, the modern mega cities will suffer greatly.
Dear Veggie;
You have a good point here. I think anyone that lives a hunter gatherer and/or herding lifestyle will have a good chance to see the very end. The collapse of the industrial food system, and the power grid might go completely unnoticed for some.
Not Just in India,
Pintada
Just as in Venezuela so too in other parts of the world. When people are hungry and desperately looking for food, they will kill anything that makes their hunger pains go away for a day. So those hunter gathers will be competing with hordes of people on the same mission.
Back to Venezuela, where you’ll find 5,000+ people storming a food center or supermarkets laid bare in matter of minutes or a women shot in the face over food or cats and dogs being killed for food.
No matter who you are whether connected to the system or not, it will be the same for all when it all comes crashing down.
The level of collapse that would result in massive releases of radiation isn’t when the banks fail, it would be when the electrical grid stops working . It could be years or decades before it becomes impossible to keep nuclear power plants running. It could be years or decades before nuclear power plant operators are unable to keep the spent fuel pool cool.
After writing this, I didn’t notice Eddy said anything about” immediate” “radiation death”.
Please try to respond what was written and not whatever your mind invented.
ARBP,
“it could be years or even decades before it becomes impossible to keep nyclear plants running ”
In relative terms I would say that “years” is pretty much instant.
Have you not followed Eddy’s post for more than a week? The implication has always been that there would be rapid collapse and nuke pond meltdowns.
The debate is ongoing as to wether an ecomomic collapse would result in rapid cesation of the electric grid. Franky, I don’t buy it.
Everyone points to Venezuela as an example, a country that has been the target of disruption and ecomonic war by the USA for decades. A country that has its major hydro dam running out of water and corruption running rampant for decades. That collapse is well overdue but not for the reasons we discuss here.
One can easily support Gails theories and writings without supporting a total rapid grid collapse scenario.
Please enlighten me and explain how a chain of bank failures will lead to a downed electrical grid. What will be the chain of events.
I don’t point to Venezuela because that country is not in a state of collapse.
When the financial system goes EVERYTHING goes…
This new study by David Korowicz explores the implications of a major financial crisis for the supply-chains that feed us, keep production running and maintain our critical infrastructure. He uses a scenario involving the collapse of the Eurozone to show that increasing socio-economic complexity could rapidly spread irretrievable supply-chain failure across the world.
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade-off-financial-system-supply-chain-cross-contagion-a-study-in-global-systemic-collapse/
Skip to page 55 for an example of what an actual collapse looks like… it is fascinating reading….
Thanks for the link FE, I will checkit out.
Really 2012 study, not new.
A electric company that can’t pay its workers because its bank has collapsed has a major problem. It is hard to keep an electrical grid going in such an instance.
Unless you are living next to a spent fuel pond you are unlikely to die immediately … you will note that there was a high incidence of cancer in countries downwind from Chernobyl….
And of course Chernobyl was a flea bite that was brought under control quite quickly when compared to 4000+ ponds that have far more fuel rods and that will never be brought under control.
The volumes of radiation released will be gargantuan — and it will spread everywhere including into the oceans and water table — there will be no escaping ingesting — either by breathing it — or eating/drinking something that has ingested it.
That’s the thing about radiation — it is the ultimately recyclable material …. it just keeps on going round and round and round…
I can’t imagine it would take more than a year for everyone to die from this… fortunately we will all starve long before….
Dear Finite Worlders;
First, an analysis from Sandia Laboratories
“These results should be considered in context with the fact that according to current practice, decay times as short as 30 days in reactor-sited pools and 11 year in away-from-reactor pools are possible.”
So, a significant proportion of the spent fuel rods have been used as much as possible in the reactor, and then have been stored safely for many years. The fuel that has been stored for more than five years can be dry casked. It doesn’t need water cooling at all. Since it can be stored in a dry cask, it can also be stored in the racks in the pool without overheating. Stated another way, that fuel is safe regardless of the existence of water in the pool. From the book:
“For most. of the cases considered, a 3-year decay period is sufficient to keep the clad temperatures within safe limits even when there is no ventilation at all.”
The cases where fuel that has been stored for 3 years, and is unsafe, are due to tighter placement of the fuel, and smaller holes that restrict air circulation. The 3 year number is for spent fuel from a Pressurized water reactor (PWR) for fuel that was used in a Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) the time required is less. (There are more PWR reactors than BWR reactors.)
“… the amount of heatup occurring in the unventilated or underventilated away-from- reactor storage pool is considerably lower when the pool is filled with BWR fuel than when it is filled with PWR fuel.”
For spent fuel stored outside, or in a room with an open door and roof vent the study concluded that:
“1. Considering a complete pool drainage, the minimum allowable decay time for PWR spent fuel in a well-ventilated room varies from a best value of about 5 days, for open-frame storage configurations, to a worst value of about 700 days, for high-density closed-frame configurations with wall-to-wall spent fuel placement. Other storage configurations fall between these limits. The minimum allowable decay time is defined as the lower limit of safe decay times, such that shorter decay times would produce local clad failures due to rupture or melting.”
“2. The minimum allowable decay time for BWR spent fuel in a well-ventilated room varies from a best value of 5 days to a worst value of 150 days for the cases considered. A high-density storage rack design for BWRs would result in a somewhat higher value of the allowable decay time than presented here, but not as high as for PWR spent fuel.”
That is ALL fuel that has been stored for 700 days after BAU would be safe. Some fuel stored only 5 days would be safe. Interestingly, the author goes on to say that by making a few modifications to the racks, that 700 day number could be reduced to 80 days at no expense to the utility.
If the fuel is stored in a closed room with no ventilation, the spent fuel would need to be stored as long as 4 years before it was safe.
The author calculated that it would likely not be wise under any circumstances to stand at the edge of the pool after the water was gone. Just as obvious, the idea that all of the spent fuel known to exist would – as a matter of course – burn, melt, go critical and scatter radiation over vast areas is simply ridiculous, as I stated several days ago.
The second study from Brookhaven National Laboratory was charged with determining the damage that would be caused by the spent fuel that did overheat per the study at Sandia. In the “Consequence Evaluation” section of the Brookhaven study one finds:
“Because of several features in the health physics modeling in the CRAC2 code, the population dose results are not very sensitive to the estimated fission product release. A more sensitive measure of the accident severity appears to be the interdiction area (contaminated land area) which in the worst cases was about two hundred square miles. While the long-term health effects (i.e., person-rem) are potentially large, it is important to note that no “prompt fatalities” were predicted and the risk of injury was also negligible.”
In the later portions of the text, the author notes that the reason that there are no prompt fatalities, and the risk of injury was small is that the model used assumes what I would call BAU mitigation. So, yes their would be major health effects in the 200 square mile area if the fire happened post BAU.
Regarding their review and update of the Sandia work:
“Based on the previous results we have concluded that the modified SFUEL code (SFUELIW2) gives a reasonable estimate of the potential for propagation of self-sustaining clad oxidation from high power spent fuel to low power spent fuel. Under some conditions, propagation is predicted to occur for spent fuel that has been stored as long as 2 years. The investigation of the effect of insufficient ventilation in the fuel building indicated that oxygen depletion is a competing factor with heating of the building atmosphere and propagation is not predicted to occur for spent fuel that has been cooled for more than three years even without ventilation.”
Recall that under the worst conditions possible, the Sandia study found that spent fuel stored only 3 years might cause a large issue. The Brookhaven folks showed that fuel stored only 3 years might overheat, but would not create the worst fire possible.
Yup. The spent fuel will not be moved, it will not all be dry casked, it will be radioactive for centuries and dangerous for decades. It is entirely possible that every nuclear reactor that is in operation today will have a fire in the spent fuel pool(s) and it is entirely possible that the fire will be the worst possible. Assuming the worst happens at every facility, there will be roughly 1000 areas with a 15 mile radius that will be unsafe for the foreseeable future. If the population density in those 200 square mile area is high, millions will die or wish for death. Millions.
Spent fuel pools cannot:
1. Explode
2. Spread radiation uphill more that 20 – 30 miles
3. cause human extinction
Spent fuel pools will:
1. Contaminate surface and groundwater including the oceans
2. Make a terrible mess in the immediate area
Tell your tribe where the nukes are, and make sure the young ones know that it is crucial that their decedents never forget where those unsafe areas are. Do not live anywhere near one. No hysteria or histrionics are necessary.
Glowingly Yours,
Pintada
U.S. Government; Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) (2011-03-16). 2011 Nuclear Power Plant Sourcebook: Spent Nuclear Fuel and the Risks of Heatup After the Loss of Water – NRC Reports – Crisis at Japan’s TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi Power Plant (~200 pages). Progressive Management. Kindle Edition.
This is utter bullshit – and I have demonstrated that previously.
Interesting, thanks for posting that.
Worth looking at what the Finns are trying to do with their nuclear waste, excavating a huge tunnel system under an island. This is where we have come to: a people who led for centuries a simple and durable life, going to great – and hugely expensive – lengths to bury the poisonous waste of Modernity. And clinging to it still.
Elsewhere today, I read – buried at the bottom of a web news page – that the whole of Spain, even the primitive mountain village where my grand-mother was born, is constantly submerged in a cloud of pollution, damaging to human and plant life, again the product of our wonderful, supposedly ‘digital’, civilisation. Not so very long ago one could have gone to that isolated village for good clean air (and terrible food, and probably typhus!)
Take a lung-full of that clean mountain air and…..die. In that same region 50% of water sources are poisoned by the run-off from industrial agriculture.
Of course none of this is really news to those who pay attention: but it defines our Age, shows what it truly is. Besides which, elections of non-entities, and the latest app, are nothing.
Dear Ms Tverberg;
Gail said, “We need some cheery news.”
Hows this?
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/06/norway-india-and-netherlands-may-ban-fossil-fuel-driven-vehicles-by-2025-2030/
You didn’t say that the news had to be plausible, or true.
Ha Ha – got ya,
Pintada
Pintada, I’m reading a Kevin Lister book at the moment. It’s not a long book (250 pages on digital) but very succinct. It came out in Nov 2014 and even since then, much water has flowed under the bridge. There is no cheery news to be read but if you want your depression level to bottom, it’s a good (for the want of a better adjective) and very informative read. If anyone has read it, do they have an opinion to share?
The Vortex of Violence: AND why we are losing the battle on climate change.
Dear bandits101;
Thanks for the tip.
Sincerely,
Pintada
By 2025-2030, we may be in such bad collapse that the issue is irrelevant.
Dear Ms Tverberg;
One can only hope.
Sincerely,
Pintada
We will all be long dead by that period.
@Gail
Interesting that you mention that time-frame. Approx 10 years ago I could not imagine that we are now in 2016 still in quite stable ‘waters’. But this time, with all the continuing (and degrading) trends I also fear that stability may not last another 10 years.
There is a lot of embedded energy in the system, but I fear that china won’t make another 10 years of growth – and thus stabilizing the world economy. Climate change may get worse – and so the migration problematic for Europe and other countries – which even doesn’t discount the issue of food security in a more (weather) unstable world.
For me its currently crossroads – shall I continue my job in an (consumption/transportation) industry that currently pays well but may be affected harshly when the shit hits the fan? Or shall I downscale and try to live the moment for the next 10 years based on my saving – with the idea in mind, that there are anyway “no savings” anymore in 10-15 years time?
Isn’t there a middle path you can take, i.e. go part time or take a sabbatical?
Already part-time 😉 – but the effect is used-up ;-( and thinking strongly about a sabbatical.
The thing is, that that what I do seems senseless and superficial once you open Pandora’s box of the knowledge we discussing here.
I already lost a lot due to an ill-fated attempt at self-sufficiency. Been working hard for last 2.5 years to get everything back. Always knew it’d be over by 2030 due to resource depletion. Then discovered OFW and realised it could all be over much sooner due to financial collapse.
I don’t want to be working hard until the day my money becomes worthless, but I’m not ready to buy into FE’s ‘last Christmas’ quite yet.
@Yorchichan
I the meantime I have realized the the dreams of self-sufficiency is dreaming anyway. It only works collectively. But even those Eco-villages will not survive or be overrun any mostly depend on the “functioning” world to get lots of stuff or even income (Eco-Tourism).
I do a bit of gardening – keeps me in nature and has some current (now!) benefits – better food, learning a lot. But I know that this is only a slight surplus and never enough to sustain a living. Even if it would… there would be others in case of a famine or collapse… so what’s the point?
The point is only when there is a slow collapse… so I opt for stuff that benefits me now and in case of a slow collapse – not forgetting to live in the now!
“I don’t want to be working hard until the day my money becomes worthless, but I’m not ready to buy into FE’s ‘last Christmas’ quite yet.”
Fully agree, because “working hard” (in industry) only squanders my time and energy and the product accelerates the collapse (i.e. consumes additional resources).
That is a very sensible approach.
I also recognize the futility of the farming option —- that took some time — but as I started to think things through I concluded the only reason to bother was that I enjoy the work and the non-chemical food.
Again — it’s like we’ve all been given a death sentence by the doctor — so we should make the most of the limited time left — the silver lining is we are all going to feel absolutely fine — right up until the final weeks (when over course we will starve)
Not so bad.
On one hand I want another 20 years of the long emergency …. but on the other hand….I am anxious for the end game to occur only because I want to see what the trigger is.
Two mysteries will be solved with one stone — the trigger + what happens when I die.
Exciting!
For me, the hard thing is having to act towards two different versions of the future.
I have my daily life where I plan on BAU going on forever, I live large and buy and do things that make my life easy and take advantage of all that FF has given us. I’m now 59 and I’m planning on BAU lasting until I’m at least 80.
But I also know that things can change very quickly and that, just maybe, next week I won’t be able to buy a loaf of bread, a toothbrush or when I flip a switch the lights won’t come on. So I’m also ready (as ready as I can ever be for an unknowable future) for what I think would happen if things just collapsed.
To me, both futures are possible so today I live in the BAU goes on forever world while planning, and having, everything in place if it doesn’t.
We don’t really know how long savings will continue to be useful–I wouldn’t count own ten years. Having a job would seem to be useful–gives you something meaningful to do, even if it is in another field. Savings would give income in addition, assuming the system still works.
Gail……have I been banned ? 🙁
The last 3 posts I wrote dissapeared. I used no bad words 🙂
When I try to submit I get redirected to your home page and my post is gone in smoke ?
… exept for this post….why.
What triggers a censoring of a post ???
There is a short list of words that will cause a post to go into moderation. Gail may release them after review. Stay tuned…
Dear Veggie;
In addition to our hosts attempts to keep out “bad” words, whatever the f&^k that might be. WordPress simply throws stuff away, or puts it in some bizarre location. Always has.
Don’t take it personally, if you can.
Yours in frustration,
Pintada
Get a Tor Browser.
They never know who you are, and posts, if you are not violating other rules, get posted.
The issue here is violating other rules, some of which are WordPress filtering standards for spam. Being anonymous doesn’t help.
One particular comment you made hit the spam filter. You kept copying it over and over, so multiple copies hit the spam filter. I let one copy go through. If a comment doesn’t go through, it is likely a second copy won’t go through either. The best strategy is to wait a bit. Sorry–I am not sure what the problem was.
Many thanks Gail.
I re-posted several times because I thought it was something at my end.
In future I will do as you suggest.
First rule, Veggie: after you have finished typing, but before you click “Post Comment”, copy and paste your would-be post into Word. After you click on “Post Comment”, if your comment does not appear, check your saved version in Word. Look at lexical words: nouns, adjectives, verbs. If you have written “Tr-ump is an i*d-i-o-t”, then separate the letters of the possibly offending word and re-post. It may take some trial and error, but that’s the only way to find out. I do not like this attempt at pre-moderation. It is too hit-and-miss because it is not intelligent. It’s OK to call Trump names, you see (unless they are defamatory), but if you call another poster a name, well, that’s not OK. But the software is not intelligent so cannot tell which you are doing. IMO it would be better to let every comment through but get a moderator to delete the bad ones a.s.a.p.
P.S. “con-spi-rac-y” is another word that the software does not like.
Dear common phenomenon;
I just told bandits101 that I couldn’t get enough doom p* o* r* n*.
Guess what happened. 🙂
Yours in Silliness,
Pintada
Oh no, not that dis-gusting pawning-nography! In Victorian times in London, we used to have the steam-powered internet, but they banned it after two weeks because of all the -nography. Any lady catching a glimpse of it would spontaneously combust due to the shock of it. It was horrific, how many decent women died because of it.
Will the stockpile of stored oil ease the drop-off in production?
Will the stockpiles be used to ensure continuity of government plans for a time?
http://attheedgeoftime.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-mystery-of-petroleum-stocks.html
You link to a good article by Luis de Sousa on petroleum stocks. His conclusion seems reasonable to me. It looked to me as though the EIA has been overestimating the gap between production and consumption. His conclusions include
One take-away I have is that it takes an incredibly small difference between supply and demand to bring the price down. In fact, the big drop in price has been about enough to bring supply and demand very closely into balance. Price, rather than added amounts in storage, is the primary way of fixing a problem with inadequate demand for oil. When oil prices were lower, there were years where oil consumption rose by far more than 2 million barrels per day. In fact, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy, every year between 1965 and 1973, world oil consumption grew by more than 2 million barrels a day, from a much lower base than today.
Regarding, “Will the stockpile of stored oil ease the drop-off in production?” I am not sure it will. Our problem will be a financial problem, probably including a big drop-off in international trade. Our problem may be that banks are not open, so people cannot buy goods made with oil, or that companies cannot deliver oil around the world, because of a lack of letters of credit. Another problem may be paying workers, including refinery workers, if banks are not working as they should.
The stockpile is not really very big, either, assuming it can be accessed. The “missing oil” is in China, which is not going to do us much good. China also seems to be the country with many of the circling tankers, waiting to deliver oil.
Angolan State Oil Producer Uncovers $50 Billion Hole, Valor Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-06/angolan-state-oil-producer-uncovers-50-billion-hole-valor-says
Angola seems to have problems besides the $50 billion missing funds. An article published this week says
The ugly side of society when people get desperate and it breaks down.
“Venezuelan Woman Shot In The Face After 500 Looters Storm Food Warehouse”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-06/venezuelan-woman-shot-face-after-500-looters-storm-food-warehouse
Exactly the sort of thing that will happen to homesteaders like myself when starving people scramble over the main gate in search of food.
Desperate people do desperate things. And they will believe that it is my duty to share with them — and if I don’t they will try to kill me.
I’ve always disagreed with those who think they can grow their organic farm and they could ride out the turbulence when the system collapses. The food zombies will be on the hunt for those farms as well as the authorities.
If not for the spent fuel ponds a boat is no doubt a far better option.
They won’t be zombies for christ sake. They won’t keep coming as you mow them down. You clowns read too many effing novels I think. They won’t be an organised army, they won’t have a cause to die for, they will be looking out for number one, self preservation. That is what will set them on a stealing and looting spree.
No they wont be zombies… they will be real people … women and children.
Will you kill innocent women and children???
Will you? That’s the important question, you are clown telling us about all your preparations, including arms. Don’t try and scare me with your BS. Jesus Eddy, are you scared of the children….doesn’t matter who the hell they are, if they are coming to kill you or loot from you, shoot, or you can cower in a corner. Either you are prepared to defend your territory and cashe or you stupidly prepared for nothing.
If a mother with 3 children showed up at my front door hungry and begging for food — would I kill them?
If they and others were rooting through my garden pulling up the food.. would I kill them?
You seem to think you are a tough guy. You seem to have great conviction that you would shoot women and children.
I have no idea. We’ll see when the time comes.
I do know that I would likely feel traumatized if I did do that.
If armed men were to attack I’d defend — but I’d lose.
You cannot hold an open territory against desperate armed men. You need to go outdoors to tend the garden …and if you remain indoors they can easily burn you out… or perhaps they simply sit in your garage eating food from the garden and from your stores — cut your water supply — and wait for you to hoist a pair of white underwear on a stick.
Then they’d take your women – and they’d send you into the fields to work.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Leopold's_Ghost
The Belgians locked families up and sent the men to gather rubber – if they did not meet quota they raped the women and threatened more of the same if the men did not get it done… they of course also cut off the hands of anyone who did not cooperate.
Nah… nothing like that could happen.
You bet your ass it can — and it will.
Don’t turn this crap back on me. You are the one with stories trying to frighten the kids. Either you have the balls to walk the talk or you are a snivelling pansy. You have absolutely no idea what will take place. Your assumptions are as good as the next jackass down the road. Make your plans, hoard what you like but stop with the scary zombie talk, I can guarantee you that there will be a damn site more to worry about before the hordes come….the government as you intimated is first to be feared. Governments need industrialisation (BAU) and armies need governments running on BAU. A hell of a lot can happen between the beginning of collapse and the fall of government and order. They will take all you own…..legally, no need for effing zombie hordes.
Well – when the electricity goes off for good – and you are cowering in the dark in a corner calling for mama — remember your talk of who the sniveling pussy is.
I’ve been to some of the worst shit holes on this planet and I have a pretty good understanding of what my tolerances are — shooting women and children asking for food is an entirely different matter.
Of course you would just shoot them dead. You are a tough guy I guess. And I must be a pussy.
What I do know is that if an asshole showed up at my gate calling me a pussy – I’d not hesitate to introduce him to the butt of a 308 … and his neck to the heel of my boot.
As for frightening the kids — if anyone is not frightened by what the end of BAU has in store for them — they are just plain stupid.
The best case scenario for anyone is a quick painless death.
i really don’t want to agree—but unfotunately all that happened in our very recent past, and the belgians might be seen as the most calm and civilised of people.
but they acted just as badly as their next door neighbours when incentivised to do so.
so yes it can and will happen again
Shame all the good blogs eventually descend into name calling and personal attacks…sigh…
yup—glad somebody else has noticed.
still—i bet the skipper of the titanic had to put up with a lot of name calling as his hat floated off into history
I agree–this discussion leaves a lot to be desired.
Blogs tend to reflect the personality of their creator to a large extent. Gail seems nice so I am confident this blog will not sink too low.
” They won’t keep coming as you mow them down.” Not literally but they will followed by others so it will seem like they are always coming at you.
“They won’t be an organised army, they won’t have a cause to die for, they will be looking out for number one, self preservation. ” They don’t need to be highly organized. All they have to do is overwhelm you with their numbers.
Give me a break, you too watch too many movies. Look at the crowds now, you only have to shoot one and they scatter. Unless they are an armed organised army with tactics, they are an amateur rabble. They will not attack a defended position. They will loot and pillage undevended locations. The hordes are the last of your worries. It’s the sneaks in the night, the gangs with a plan (if they ever)……. worry about them first.
Wow, someone who takes things literally. FE, saved me the explanation. But yes we have way too many examples in what happens when society breaks down and the authorities can’t control the chaos.
Another thing we take for granted – police.
Imagine if there were none.
I can imagine a lot of freelance “protection services” being sold by young men with guns and ammunition.
After Russia left Afghanistan … there was a very chaotic situation … I recall reading that often in order to get to one’s home different gangster factions controlled each of the streets – and you had to pay each group to pass.
This was one of the reasons the Taliban was embraced – and would be again when the US leaves the country.
When things get very bad — we’ll accept anyone who promises and end to chaos and suffering (see Trump)
Too much generalization here.
My guess it that it will be different for every country in the world.
Rural India will not even notice the crash. They are already there.
New York and LA will be devastated.
But please gentlemen, stop barking out scenarios like you know exactly how things will unfold. It will be different everywhere.
Generally, in heavy collapse situations the densest populations suffer emmedialey.
However, towns greater than 200 km from major city tend to fair much better becasue it’s too far for the starving masses to walk.
So many variables.
I think connecting a financial collapse to an instant woldwide melting of nuclear fuel rods is a bit of a stretch.
I would argue that an immediate revaluation of currencies and wiping of certain debts will be in order long before your Zombies start walking the planet.
Too much generalization here.
Rural India will not even notice the crash. They are already there.
Big cities will feel it for sure.
But please gentlemen, stop barking out scenarios like you know exactly how things will unfold. It will be different everywhere.
So many variables.
Connecting a financial crash to an instant worldwide melting of nuclear fuel rods is a bit of a stretch.
I would argue that an immediate revaluation of currencies and wiping of certain debts will be in order long before your Zombies start walking the planet.
…sorry for the double post ( the first 3 tries got erased by the host moderator bot 🙂 )
I think you nailed it there Rodster with ‘the authorities’. They will probably escheat those farms and the owners will end up in a very long queue line to hopefully get a ration of his/her own cache, then be forced into hard labor to work the land. Or worse yet the authorities will keep the best stuff for themselves and the owners will have to watch then walk off with it and do so without protest or risk being shot. Even after collapse people will presume power but most people will become their slaves.
“Hey, you can’t drink that – that’s my whiskey!”
“Get back to tilling the soil or you’ll get shot by my lackey and not get that potato I promised you at the end of the day after working in the blazing Sun!”
“Yeah, why is it so hot now collapse has occurred?”
“No more dimming.”
The Irish famine gives some insights as to what might happen… crimes related to food theft of course surged… but keep in mind during that period there was an operational government… police…. military … courts… prisons…
When this hits there will be you — and you gun — and people begging … and others resorting to violence… both intent on getting your food.
Once the rule of law breaks down I am not clear that the food on ‘your’ farm is yours anymore. What makes it yours? The fact you have a document showing you bought the farm once? The fact you invested your time and energy in producing the food? In the absence of legal authority to enforce your claims the only things belonging to you are those things you are willing and capable of defending with force.
ultimately the problem comes down to whether the police/military are also being fed/paid or not
once that dynamic changes, then the whole scene changes
That is my point. Hungry people care not for pieces of paper. They won’t even ask. They will just take.
And there will be nothing that anyone can do about it. You can shoot at them – but what do you do when they scramble through the gardens at night ripping everything out?
And that assumes that none of them are armed — I guarantee there will be plenty of armed people showing up — anyone who thinks otherwise is living in a dream world.
Everyone is capable of violence — not just confirmed criminals – when one’s family is hungry.
Most people in the US have access to weapons.
As would most people in the rural areas of New Zealand where I am.
Hungry people – no police – lots of guns. A volatile mix.
I really need to start choosing a suitable rock cut. Might even paint a bulls eye on it.
Would you shooting people to stop them accessing ‘your’ food be any different to you going to the next farm and shooting the ‘owners’ to access ‘their’ food? To me, it seems not.
Oh, and Eddy, in case you are serious about this rock cut thing, I know that you are at the end of a long supply chain but there must be something available on the dark web that would be a lot less messy.
Yorchichan!
Fast Eddy is a loser, he paid for his farm. Bettrer invest in ammo and “convince” a farmer to give you his farm for free, after he was shot.
all these scenarios are fantasies
the reality is that you will get sideswiped from a direction you didn’t anticipate, the result of a factor you didn’t know existed.
Why—because all our minds work on existing knowledge. The future is what we cannot know.
Sorry to disrupt everybody’s field of fire so to speak.
just sayin—and no humour intended
Normalcy bias — influenced by Hollywood — is alive and well on these discussions.
One would be well-served to pick up a book or two about homesteading pre-fossil fuels to get an idea of just how brutal life was.
I would highly not recommend The Good Life. It won’t be anything like that.
More like The Grim Life…
Makes sense.
Best thing you could do if you have a teenage kid is get him/her some military training…. and run your credit card beyond the limit stockpiling guns and ammo.
I could not agree more with you — the homesteading option is a total waste of time.
Although if you enjoy working in the garden and growing your own food… why not. And if you can fool yourself into believing it will bring you salvation post BAU — even better.
We need some cheery news.
Collapse hasn’t happened yet?
you missed it
That does sound cheery around here.
I woke up at 630 and the internet was still functioning… so it looks like we get at least one more day of BAU
Since our clocks are ahead of everyone else here in NZ I will be sure to alert all of you when BAU collapses because it will hit here first .. always good to have advance warning…. 🙂
LOL!
Dear Finite Worlders;
This entire thread is of very low caliber (pun intended). Good grief, have none of you been in the military? Do you not know a military person or your local sheriff?
Roster said, “The food zombies will be on the hunt for those farms as well as the authorities.”
I agree, except for the sentence structure. It should read, “The food zombies as well as the authorities will be on the hunt for those farms.” That is why any doomer worth his salt (sic) will need a defensive plan.
Fast Eddy said, “If not for the spent fuel ponds a boat is no doubt a far better option.” You could have said, “If wishes were fishes, we should all be on a boat.” The ocean is toast.
Fast Eddy said, “Will you kill innocent women and children???”
That is why you set up a defensive system, with barriers.
bandits101 said, “the sneaks in the night, the gangs with a plan (if they ever)……. worry about them first.” Of course. It is 300 yards to the nearest private road and my gate from my place. It is just under a mile to the nearest county road. One needs a perimeter alarm system, or we will post a guard whose job it is to watch the gate for some sort of organized assault. Then, when they come you open up with the sniper/hunting rifles.
FE said, “what do you do when they scramble through the gardens at night ripping everything out?” Dude, if you let anyone – anyone – that has not been vetted within 100 yards of your compound, you have already lost. You mentioned that someone can knock on your door who is otherwise unannounced. Pathetic.
FE said, “You cannot hold an open territory against desperate armed men.” There are a lot of veterans that would disagree with that. Particularly if they had time to build defensive systems, and the enemy was poorly organized.
Yorchichan asks, “Would you shooting people to stop them accessing ‘your’ food be any different to you going to the next farm and shooting the ‘owners’ to access ‘their’ food? To me, it seems not.” You my friend are incorrect. If someone breaches my defense, they are intent on doing me, and the women and children here harm. Just as the police have every right to protect themselves, I have a right to protect my people and my stuff. If one wants to trade with ones neighbors, all one has to do is go to the neighbors, carefully make contact, clearly state your intentions, prove that you are honest, and list the items that you want to trade. If someone comes to my gate, they had better be prepared to do just those steps.
Yorchichan said, “In the absence of legal authority to enforce your claims the only things belonging to you are those things you are willing and capable of defending with force.”
Duh. Just like it was for the first 4 million years of human history. And just like it is in many countries outside of the developed world. Heck, you could say the same thing about big areas in Detroit, or Baltimore today.
A Real Black Person” said, “” They won’t keep coming as you mow them down.” Not literally but they will followed by others so it will seem like they are always coming at you.” Nah, not really. It will become tiring if we have to post a guard, but we have some other stuff to act as early warning. Plus, during a fast collapse scenario, it will only be a year or so until most of the grasshopper people will be gone. Then there might be a longer period of raiding by the more organized professional or semi-professional raiders.
In a slow crash scenario, you’ve got to know your local sheriff. If he is corrupt, find out what it is gonna take to get on his side, and do it. If he is not corrupt, find out what it is gonna take to get on his side, and do it. (I would not want to be “A Real Black Person” in either scenario. I am doing everything I can to maintain my white male privilege.) In a slow collapse scenario, there will be a transition phase where the sheriff is still trying to do his job, but funding is low. That is an opportunity, and a problem. If you blow someone away, and the sheriff doesn’t like who, or how you did it, thats bad. If you need someone to call, it is very nice to be able to do so, thats good.
Stilgar Wilcox and Rodster brought up a good point, “I think you nailed it there Rodster with ‘the authorities’.”
I agree that the really dangerous people will be local law enforcement, and the army. In a fast collapse scenario, they will be less dangerous (cause they won’t have gas for their vehicles, or backup) In a fast collapse scenario, they will just be trained and potentially organized raiders. In a slow collapse, they had better be your friend, (ie. white male privilege!!) or your compound needs to be (or appear to be) one of the least attractive ones in the area. I have no problem there – terrible soil, bad water, etc. etc.!
Finally, I really like Fast Eddy. If he wasn’t here, the site would quickly go from the vibrant place it is to a backwater with only Ms Tverbergs brilliant posts to keep it interesting. If the bashing continues, we will run a little experiment to see if the bashers can take it as well as he does.
When I said “this thread” i meant the part started by Rodster with his post of the Venezuelan shooting.
sorry—the only sheriffs in the uk are guys like the sheriff of Nottingham—-and he had a worse press image than El Trumpo–if such a thing is possible.
But it will be only fair to give the Don time to settle in—
if you know anyone name Marian, best warn her
(or anyone else of the female persuasion come to that)
Dear Norman Pagett;
NP said, “… the only sheriffs in the uk are guys like the sheriff of Nottingham …”
Indeed. My advice to cosy up to the future warlord is pretty meaningless unless there is someone in your community that can/will be a de facto warlord. The sheriff here has an armored personnel carrier (for crap sake). So, he will be the local power regardless of his intent. He and his 5-6 deputies will be in charge – under many of the circumstances I can four-see.
Things quickly get exponentially more complex with population. The question becomes then can you actually defend yourself where you are, or should you move? (No need to answer.)
Sincerely,
Pintada
Cozy up to a warlord … hmmm… wouldn’t that be like trying to cozy up to Tony Soprano… or Jamie Dimon… or any of the many brutal dictators around the world?
Perhaps if you looked something like this you might have a chance….
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/76m5ZZONYSw/maxresdefault.jpg
This all sounds like a movie script…. The gunslinger and his mates from the neighbourhood setting up defensive perimeters and securing the farm whilst holding off the bad guys….
What’s the password to get through the perimeter?
Let’s return to reality.
My farm is much bigger than any than any of the neighbours (other than the commercial operations that are 100% reliant on petro chemicals…) and there is no way in hell I would be able to feed 4 of us — never mind ‘Delta Force’ tasked with protecting the crops.
It’s now winter — I’ve look out the window and I see the winter crop in … it will be at least 2 months before any of it is ready — if BAU ended today — and I did not have a container full of food stored — I would be dead well before the crop was ready.
Subsistence farmers — even those born into the job — have always maintained a precarious existence with starvation always around the corner…. and that is without needing a Delta Force to complicate the situation ….
To top it off…. my kindly neighbours will be looking to me for assistance — some of them are my good friends — am I to kill them? I certainly don’t have enough to feed them — I don’t even have enough for our family.
As Norm has stated this is all getting very silly.
Let’s be blunt — when BAU ends — everyone starves. Everyone. Buy all the guns you want – and ammo — and store all the food you want — eventually you starve.
I am 100% certain I will starve at some point. Provided I don’t meet the rock cut first.
As for guns and ammo – take a look around your area — I bet there are some pretty rough critters lurking around — when they come calling do you give them your wife and your daughter(s)? Do you let them put the yoke on you? Or do you go down in a blaze of fire?
Expect the worst. It will be at least that bad.
There won’t be a few – there will be many — and if you send them away they will have seen your farm — and they will be back in the night…
What about when your family members — you know – those brothers and sisters and their kids — who know you have a farm – show up — send them away? Kill them?
What about neighbours? Friends?
Taking this further — would you — if forced to shove people out of your depleted boat — send your wife and kids away? Shoot them?
The entire discussion is ludicrous — the hordes are going to rip up your gardens — they are going to kill every animal you own and eat them.
Take a look a Venezuela — they are nowhere near total collapse and they are eating dogs and cats.
As if you are going to have any moral choices to make — you will be overrun within days of BAU collapsing. And there will not be a thing you can do about it.
Pintada, you should try that ‘friendly’ technique with prospective women you’re interested in. Don’t bother just correcting their sentences, but extend it to improving the way they fashion their hair, demanding they explain their bad choices of apparel, and provide them with the information needed to correct the way they walk and improve their overall posture. If they don’t slap you, you might get a date. LOL!
Dear Stilgar Wilcox;
What? I don’t get it. Plus which, I don’t get “interested” in women.
Sincerely,
Pintada
Dear Stilgar Wilcox;
Ah, maybe I get it. Its sarcasm! You even said ” ‘friendly’ technique”! It may come as surprise, but during my working life, and (long ago) when I tried to socialize lots of people thought of me as quite the A hole. Yup, true statement believe it or not.
Up with Sarcasm,
Pintada
@Pintada
You just had to make things racial, didn’t you? Then again, social collapse, and the chaos that will arise out of it will inevitably bring out fears, hopes, and biases among people who contemplate it extensively.
A Real Black Person” said, “” They won’t keep coming as you mow them down.” Not literally but they will followed by others so it will seem like they are always coming at you.”
Pintada : Nah, not really. It will become tiring if we have to post a guard, but we have some other stuff to act as early warning. Plus, during a fast collapse scenario, it will only be a year or so until most of the grasshopper people will be gone. Then there might be a longer period of raiding by the more organized professional or semi-professional raiders.
It really depends how many “We”s are there. Your only advantage will be your guns. You assume no one else will have guns.
Pintada : “In a slow crash scenario, you’ve got to know your local sheriff. If he is corrupt, find out what it is gonna take to get on his side, and do it. If he is not corrupt, find out what it is ”
Aren’t you special. You think the local police department is going to stay intact after BAU and that you will be able to get them on your side.
If you can’t offer your sheriff or the local armed militia food they probably won’t help you. I suppose if you are part of an ethnocentric group they may help,, but let’s get one thing clear–the idea white people will be able to keep the same exact advantages as they do right now, after BAU is over is laughable. The advantage that whites have had was mostly technological and with the end of BAU that technological advantage is drawing to a close. Without the ability to produce spare parts for their guns, the ability of whites, as a group, to dominate other ethnic groups will be reduced over time. White privilege is not the ability to defend one’s property.
Pintada : (I would not want to be “A Real Black Person” in either scenario. I am doing everything I can to maintain my white male privilege.) In a slow collapse scenario, there will be a transition phase where the sheriff is still trying to do his job, but funding is low. ”
I’ll concede to the reality that whites, as a group, have more guns, bullets and better firearms training than any other ethnic group in America. How long they will be able to keep their guns working will deterimine how long they are able to have an advantage over other ethnic groups.
You know IMO I’d be surprised if the scapegoating went along ethnic or racial lines. There will be lots of blame going around and I doubt there will be time, nor will there be resources enough to organise a concerted campaign of targeted violence. It might be the perceived well-to-do, it might be government officials, it might be the government itself, it could be employers that don’t or can’t pay, maybe the banks, maybe a religious group or hospital workers that can’t supply medication. I don’t think being black, white or brindle will get you special treatment but no matter who or what you are, if the violent majority wants to blame you, then you will be a victim no matter what.
I would point out that women are just as much discriminated against as blacks. Elderly are not mentioned, but I would expect they would be in a class that has little chance of success. Children may not come out well either.
The point is that each group will attempt to rely on its strengths. For a while, firearms may be strength, but after some period of time, this approach isn’t going to work, either. Success will depend upon physical strength, and ability to convince others to work as a group. It will depend on ability to maintain the basics–clean water, food, heat for cooking, hygiene to prevent infections, and long-term, ability to reproduce and raise children. It will depend on choosing the right strategy for success, whatever that will be. I doubt the white racial group will have an advantage.
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