$50 per barrel oil is clearly less impossible to live with than $30 per barrel oil, because most businesses cannot make a profit with $30 per barrel oil. But is $50 per barrel oil helpful?
I would argue that it really is not.
When oil was over $100 per barrel, human beings in many countries were getting the benefit of most of that high oil price:
- Some of the $100 per barrel goes as wages to the employees of the oil company who extracted the oil.
- Often, the oil company contracts with another company to do part of the oil extraction. Part of the $100 per barrel is paid as wages to employees of the subcontracting companies.
- An oil company buys many goods, such as steel pipe, which are made by others. Part of the $100 per barrel goes to employees of the companies making the goods that the oil company buys.
- An oil company pays taxes. These taxes are used to fund many programs, including new roads, schools, and transfer payments to the elderly and unemployed. Again, these funds go to actual people, as wages, or as transfer payments to people who cannot work.
- An oil company pays dividends to stockholders. Some of the stockholders are individuals; others are pension funds, insurance companies, and other companies. Pension funds use the dividends to make pension payments to individuals. Insurance companies use the dividends to make insurance premiums affordable. One way or another, these dividends act to create benefits for individuals.
- Interest payments on debt go to bondholders or to the bank making the loan. Pension plans and insurance companies often own the bonds. These interest payments go to pay pension payments of individuals or to help make insurance premiums more affordable.
- A company may have accumulated profits that are not paid out in dividends and taxes. Typically, they are reinvested in the company, allowing more people to have jobs. In some cases, the value of the stock may rise as well.
When the price falls from $100 per barrel to $50 per barrel, the incomes of many people are adversely affected. This is a huge negative with respect to world economic growth.
If the price of oil drops from $100 per barrel to $50 per barrel, this change adversely affects the income of a large share of people who formerly benefited from the high price. Thus, the drop in oil prices affects the incomes of many of the people listed in the previous section.
Furthermore, this drop in income tends to radiate outward to the rest of the economy because each worker who is laid off is forced to purchase fewer discretionary items. These workers are also less able to take on new debt, such as to buy a new car or house. In some cases, they may even default on existing debt.
A drop in oil prices from $100+ per barrel to $50 per barrel leads to job layoffs by oil companies and their subcontractors. Oil companies and their subcontractors may even reduce dividends to shareholders.
While oil prices have recently been as low as $30 per barrel, the subsequent rise in prices to $50 per barrel is not enough to start adding new production. Prices are still far too low to encourage new development.
In 2016, other commodities besides oil have a problem with price below the cost of production.
Many commodities, including coal and natural gas, are currently affected by low prices. So are many kinds of metals, and some kinds of food commodities. Thus, there is pressure in a wide range of industries to lay off workers. There are many parts of the world now feeling recessionary forces.
As prices fall, the pressure is for high-cost producers to drop out. As this happens, the world’s ability to make goods and services falls. The size of the world economy tends to shrink. This shrinkage is clearly not good for a world economy that needs to grow in order for investors to earn a profit, and in order for debtors to repay debt with interest.
Growing demand comes from a combination of increasing wages and increasing debt.
The recent drop in oil prices from the $100+ level seems to come from inadequate demand for oil. This is equivalent to saying that oil at such a high price has not been affordable for a significant share of buyers. We can understand what might have gone wrong, by thinking about how demand for oil might be increased.
Clearly, one way of increasing demand is through increased productivity of workers. If this increased productivity allows wages to rise, this increased productivity can cycle back through the economy as increased demand for goods and services. We can think of the process as an “economic growth pump” that allows continued economic growth.
Generally, increased productivity of workers reflects the use of more capital goods, such as machines, vehicles, and buildings. These capital goods are made using energy products, and operate using energy products. Thus, energy consumption is an important part of the economic growth pump. These capital goods are frequently financed using debt, so debt is another important part of the economic growth pump.
Even apart from the debt necessary for financing capital goods, another way of increasing demand is by adding more debt. If a company adds more debt, it can often hire more workers and can add to its holdings of property. These also help raise the output of the company. As long as the output that is added is sufficiently productive that it can repay the added debt with interest, adding more debt tends to enhance the workings of the economic growth pump.
The way governments have attempted to encourage the use of increased debt in recent years is by decreasing interest rates. The reason this approach is used is because with a lower interest rate, a broader range of investments can seem to be profitable, after repaying debt with interest. Even very “iffy” investments, such as extraction of tight oil from the Bakken, can appear to be profitable.
The extent of the decrease in interest rates since 1981 has been amazingly large.
Figure 1. Ten year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.
Since 2008, additional steps have been taken to decrease interest rates even further. One of these is the use of Quantitative Easing. Another is the recent use of negative interest rates in Europe and Japan.
Falling demand would seem to suggest that the world’s economic growth pump is no longer working properly. This is happening, even with all of the post-1981 manipulations of interest rates to reduce the cost of borrowed capital, and thus reduce the required threshold for profitability of new investments.
What could cause the economic growth pump to stop working?
One possibility is that accumulated debt reaches too high a level, based on historical parameters. This seems to be happening now in many parts of the world.
Another thing that could go wrong is that the price of oil rises so high that capital goods based on oil are no longer cost effective for leveraging human labor. If this happens, manufacturing is likely to move to countries that use a cheaper mix of fuels, typically including more coal. The shift of manufacturing to China seems to reflect such a change.
A third thing that could go wrong is that pollution becomes too great a problem, forcing a country to slow down economic growth. This seems to be at least part of China’s current problem.
If oil prices drop from $100 to $50 per barrel, this has an adverse impact on debt levels.
With lower oil prices, workers are laid off, both from oil companies and from companies that provide goods and services to oil companies. These workers, in turn, are less able to take on new debt. In some cases, they may also default on their debt.
Oil companies with reduced cash flow are also less able to repay their debt. In some cases, companies may file for bankruptcy. The result is generally that existing debt is “written down.” Even if an oil company does not file for bankruptcy, it is likely to have difficulty adding new debt. The trend in the amount of debt outstanding is likely to change from increasing to decreasing.
As the amount of debt shifts from increasing to decreasing, the economy tends to shift from increasing to shrinking. Instead of adding more employees, companies tend to reduce the number of employees. If many commodities are affected, the impact can be very large.
We need oil prices to rise to $120 per barrel or more.
The current price of $50 per barrel is still way too low. A post I published in February 2014 was called Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending. In it, I talked about an analysis by Steve Kopits of Douglas-Westwood. In this analysis, Kopits points out that even at that time–which was before oil prices began dropping in mid-2014–major oil companies were beginning to cut back on spending for new production. Their cost of production was at that time typically at least $120 or $130 per barrel, if prices were to be high enough so that companies could fund new development without adding huge amounts of new debt. Oil prices could perhaps be lower if oil companies could fund their operations using large increases in debt. Company management recognized that such a funding approach would not be prudent–it could lead to unmanageable debt levels.
Today’s cost of oil production is likely to be even higher than it was when Kopits’ analysis was performed in early 2014. If we expect oil production to continue to rise, we probably need oil prices in the $120 to $150 per barrel range for several years. Prices at such a level are likely to be way too high for consumers, because wages do not rise at the same time as oil prices. Consumers find that they need to cut back on discretionary expenditures. These spending cutbacks tend to lead to recession and falling oil prices.
We can think of our economy as being like a big ball, which can be pumped up to greater and greater size with either rising productivity or rising debt.
This process can continue to work, only as long as the debt added is sufficiently productive that it is possible to repay the debt with interest. We seem to be reaching the end of the line on this process. Returns keep falling lower and lower, necessitating ever-lower interest rates.
To some extent, the pumping up of oil prices that occurs in this process represents a lie, because the energy content of a barrel of oil remains unchanged, regardless of price. In fact, the energy of coal and of natural gas per unit of production remains unchanged as well. The value of energy products to society is determined by their physical ability to leverage human labor–for example, how far diesel oil can move a truck. This ability is unchanged, regardless of how expensive that oil is to produce. This is why, at some point, we find that high-priced energy products simply don’t work in the economy. If we spend the huge amount of resources required for the production of energy products, we don’t have enough resources left over for the rest of the economy to grow.
Low oil prices, plus low commodity prices of other kinds, seem to indicate that we are reaching the end of the line in the “pump up the economy with debt” approach. We have been using this approach since 1981. At this point, we have no idea what economy growth would look like, without the stimulus of falling interest rates.
The drop in oil prices and other commodity prices since mid-2014 seems to represent a “shrinking back” of our ability to use debt to raise prices to a level sufficient to cover the cost of extraction, plus associated overhead costs, including taxes. This drop in prices should be an alarm bell that something is seriously wrong. Without continuously rising prices, to keep up with ever-rising extraction costs, fossil fuel production will at some point come to a halt. Renewables will not work well either, because prices will not be high enough for them to be competitive.
Of course, once the economy stops growing, the huge amount of debt we have amassed becomes un-payable. The whole system we have built will begin to look more and more like a Ponzi Scheme.
We are blind to the possibility that oil prices of $50 per barrel may indicate that we are reaching “the end of the line.”
The popular belief is that everything will work out fine. Oil prices will rise a bit, and somehow the economy will get along with less fossil fuel. Somehow, we will make it through this bottleneck.
If we would study history, we would discover that there have been many situations of overshoot and collapse. In fact, those situations tend to look quite a bit like the situation we are seeing today:
- Falling resources per capita, because of rising population or exhaustion of resources
- Falling wages of non-elite workers; greater wage disparity
- Governments finding it increasingly difficult to fund needed programs
There is a popular belief that oil prices will rise, if there is a shortage of energy products. In prior collapses, it is not at all clear that prices have risen. We know that when ancient Babylon collapsed, demand for all products, even slaves, fell. If we are reaching collapse now, we should not be surprised if the prices of commodities, including oil, stay low. Alternatively, they might spike, but only briefly—not enough to really fix our current situation.
Too many wrong theories
Part of our problem is too much confidence that the “magic hand” of supply and demand will fix the economy. We don’t really understand how demand is tied into affordability, and how affordability is tied into wages and debt. We don’t realize that the view that oil prices can rise endlessly is more or less equivalent to the view that economic growth can continue indefinitely in a finite world.
Another part of our problem is failure to understand how the economic pump that keeps the economy operating works. Once debt rises too high, or the cost of energy extraction rises too high, we can no longer keep the system going. Price tends to fall below the cost of energy extraction. The quantity of energy products consumed cannot rise fast enough to keep the economic growth pump operating.
Clearly neoclassical economics doesn’t properly model how the economy really works. But the Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROEI) theory of Biophysical Economics does not model the current situation well, either. EROEI theory is generally focused on the ratio of Energy Returned by some alternative energy device to Fossil Fuel Energy Used by the same alternative energy device. This focus misses several important points:
- The quantity of energy consumed by the economy needs to keep rising, if human productivity is to keep growing, and thus allow the economy to avoid collapsing. EROEI calculations normally have little to say about the quantity of energy products.
- The quantity of debt required to produce a given amount of energy by an alternative energy device is very important. The more debt that is added, the worse the alternative energy device is for the economy.
- In order for the economic growth pump to keep working, the return on human labor needs to keep rising. This is equivalent to a need for the wages of non-elite workers to keep rising. This is a requirement relating to a different kind of EROEI—energy return on human labor, leveraged with various types of supplemental energy. Today’s EROEI theorists tend to overlook this type of EROEI.
EROEI theory is a simplification that misses several important parts of the story. While a high fossil fuel EROEI is necessary for an alternative to substitute for fossil fuels, it is not sufficient. Thus, EROEI analysis tends to produce “false favorable” results.
Lining up resources in order by their EROEIs seems to be a useful exercise, but, in fact, the cut-off likely needs to be higher than most have supposed, in order to keep total costs low enough so that the economy can really afford a given energy source. In addition, resources that add heavily to debt requirements are probably unhelpful, regardless of their calculated EROEIs.
Conclusion
We are certainly at a worrying point in history. Our networked economy is more complex than most researchers have considered possible. We seem to be headed for collapse because of low prices, rather than high. The base scenario of the 1972 book “The Limits to Growth,” by Donella Meadows and others, seems to indicate that the world will likely reach limits about the current decade.
The modeling done in 1972 laid out the basic situation, but could not be expected to explain precisely how collapse would occur. Now that we are reaching the expected timeframe, we can see more clearly what seems to be happening. We need to be examining what is really happening, rather than tying ourselves to outdated ideas of how the economic system works, and thus, what symptoms we should expect as we approach limits. It may be that $50 per barrel oil is one of the signs that collapse is not far away.
Ali avoids the suffering…. but if he knew the greatest show was about to begin he’d have wished to hang on a little longer
http://www.news.com.au/sport/boxing/story-behind-the-final-photo-shoot-of-muhammad-ali/news-story/3ec2194e5d9e72e638d8d198e09a22af
Maybe Fast Eddy should take up boxing as a preparation for the fighting he expects to come. If so, I’m more than willing to spar in the ring with him and teach him a lesson.
That’s if he doesn’t know it all.
Yes, I’d love to see you lick him in the ring, Jeremy. 😉
I doubt he would learn anything at all, but it would be FUN….thanks common phenomenon…we can only make believe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVge_Fll67E
the Greatest in his TOP FORM
Who cares about a dead boxer.
Not I.
Ali was much more than a boxer, dolph911. Not sure of your age, but he did have much influence during the late 1960’s/1970’s. Naturally, much is forgotten now. He was a man of high moral values and righteous and paid a high price for his stance. Another that refused to kneel and kiss the ring of the so-called “Elders”.
You would probably knock me out in a ring …. can we instead do it on ice skates – gloves off – helmuts off — bare fists? I have more experience in that sort of environment — it would be really neat if you don’t know how to ice skate very well – as you can imagine … balance is everything.. I reckon I could have taken Ali in his prime — on ice skates of course 🙂
this exchange is getting somewhat silly, sounding as if it belongs at a Trump rally
Dear Fast Eddy;
“if he knew the greatest show was about to begin he’d have wished to hang on a little longer”
Yup.
Sincerely,
Pintada
I found this; yearly gigatons of CO2 emissions. Very interesting from a standpoint of increase over years, but also as a comparison of global industrial activity in different years and decades. As you can see 1978 emissions total was just a little more than 1/2 of what it was in 2015.
Yearly GT CO2:
1978 17.44
1979 17.96
1980 17.78
1981 17.54
1982 17.36
1983 17.47
1984 18.05
1985 18.32
1986 18.65
1987 19.28
1988 19.94
1989 20.33
1990 20.62
1991 20.75
1992 20.70
1993 20.81
1994 20.93
1995 21.48
1996 21.99
1997 22.23
1998 22.38
1999 22.52
2000 23.32
2001 23.58
2002 23.94
2003 24.99
2004 26.18
2005 27.05
2006 27.86
2007 28.78
2008 28.87
2009 28.32
2010 29.84
2011 31.29
2012 31.49
2013 32.07
2014 32.13
2015 32.14
BP Reports a similar list in its Statistical Review of World Energy that it puts out each year in June. I haven’t seen the 2016 version yet though. I don’t know where your version comes from. I copied in some of the corresponding amounts from BP in the second column.
Yearly GT CO2 (Second column from BP 2015 report):
1978 17.44 18.87
1979 17.96
1980 17.78
1981 17.54
1982 17.36
1983 17.47
1984 18.05
1985 18.32
1986 18.65
1987 19.28
1988 19.94 22.15
1989 20.33
1990 20.62
1991 20.75
1992 20.70
1993 20.81
1994 20.93
1995 21.48
1996 21.99
1997 22.23
1998 22.38 24.51
1999 22.52
2000 23.32
2001 23.58
2002 23.94
2003 24.99
2004 26.18
2005 27.05
2006 27.86
2007 28.78
2008 28.87 32.60
2009 28.32 32.00
2010 29.84 33.47
2011 31.29 34.41
2012 31.49 34.82
2013 32.07 35.31
2014 32.13 35.50
2015 32.14
I wasn’t aware that multiple versions of these estimates amounts are available–although I suppose it is not surprising. BP estimates amounts by fuel and country grouping, and later goes back and adjusts these amounts. So the estimates for earlier years will change somewhat when its new report comes out later this month.
Hi Gail, I got that list from another poster on a different blog. The link the poster had didn’t work so I copied/pasted it here. I would have preferred verifying the link of course. Interesting that BP’s are higher. Maybe measurements were taken at different latitudes, which for example causes CO2 measurements to vary. E.g., CO2 measurements close to the equator are much less than in the Arctic.
BP’s measurements aren’t measurements of what is in the air; they reflect calculated amounts based on oil, coal, and natural gas amounts burned. The total amount in the air would be higher, because they would include amounts added by agriculture, for example, plus what was already in the air previously.
Different figures might reflect different adjustments for the amount of fossil fuel supplies that are not burned–for example, those used as raw materials to make fabrics and plastics. There might be other kinds of adjustments as well–BP’s data excludes some biomass, for example, if it does not go through the commercial sales system.
Vincey Princey…
Might be time to step back from your crusade against FE. Starting to appear juvenile…just saying.
Want to see how climate change will force crop failures? It’s already happening. Here’s a wave of locusts in Russia as of a few days ago that is decimating their crops. It is simply biblical to watch.
I assume this is directed at me?
I know everything there is to know about world affairs.
The owners of the Federal Reserve – the private company that has the right to print the world’s reserve currency — makes every decision related to maintaining control of the world.
Of course you will disagree because you believe Obama is the most powerful man on the planet… because that is what you were told starting in grade one … and you have never questioned it.
Well I was too. But I question things.
Imagine if for whatever reason Fast Eddy was given the world’s printing press. And allowed to print trillions of dollars — out of thin air. And decide who gets some of that cash and what they have to do to get it. Imagine the power — it would be absolute – and the only way you could take it away would be to take away my printing press — but of course I would reward loyal minions who would help me keep my printing press.
The axiom is ‘follow the money’ Yes – follow the money — but you need to follow it right to the source.
The source all money is ultimately the reserve currency — it is POWER — and a small group of men own it.
Now who was that chap you were suggesting I should know?
Fast Eddy claims “I know everything there is to know …..”
That’s why he’s been moving around to save his backside….
On the contrary — I have changed tracks many times on many issues…
That is the difference between me and you …
If the facts demonstrate I am wrong — I will change my mind.
You on the other hand will continue banging your head against the wall even if the facts are 100% against you.
Tell me more about Scott Nearing and how he was a model for sustainable living….
Yes, I shall, more than willing to help you. That is my mission.
Based on your contributions to date… I am skeptical.
According to IEA the conventional crude peaked in 2006.
http://evworld.com/press/iea_peakoil_2010graph.jpg
Yosh, I frequent peak oil barrel dot com which is a more technically oil oriented blog, and according to their latest information, crude is at 80 mbd (still not peaked yet, although it may be close) and all oils are 95 mbd.
The graph you show has a year under it of 2010 (so anything beyond 2010 is just a projection of what they predict will happen), and it has the letters OECD – which is anything other than OPEC. OPEC runs about 31 mbd and gets added to OECD.
But over at that other website Ron Patterson has predicted 2015 would be peak, and since then world oil production has begun a slow decline. It may be declining though due to low oil price, and could ascend later if the price is right. In any case we’re cooking ourselves or at least pre-heating the oven.
The graph is made by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which is the European equivalent of U.S Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The future projections are of course always inaccurate, but the graph shows a dip in crude production after 2006 and the graph was made in 2008, two years after the dip.
The graph might of course be inaccurate… since after all… it’s Made in Europe. 🙂
I always get a chuckle when I look at that chart.
They throw in “Natural Gas Liquids” and “Fields yet to be found” in order to offset a decline picture and keep the slope looking “level”.
Last time I checked, Nat.Gas Liquids were not oil.
And those NGL’s are taking up a large portion of the chart !
I looked at the graph at Peak Oil Barrel made by EIA. The 80 mbd shows Crude + Condensate.
Yes, C & C. I wonder how much condensate is a day?
It will be interesting to see if 2015 was the peak or if another peak occurs later.
Generally, condensate isn’t available separately. OPEC issues reports relating to pure crude, but others generally do not. Natural gas liquids are very often available separately. These are in addition to Crude and Condensate, though.
The world doesn’t operate on just conventional crude oil, however.
The big difference is that conventional crude oil is generally cheap to produce; unconventional oil is expensive to produce. How soon do the high prices of unconventional oil cause too many problems? Can the price of crude oil actually keep up with the cost of production?
It doesn’t look as if the economy can afford a high enough oil price to cover the cost of production. If the rise in the oil price was driven by the cost of production, then the collapse of the oil price seems to have been caused by the fact that the economy couldn’t afford the high price any more. Something seems to be broken.
If the oil price stays at $50 another year, then it looks like the high cost producers must go bankrupt.
Dear common phenomenon;
My friend FE hates to hear it, but we are lucky to be alive at this time. We are on a great adventure! And, we already know the end of the story (we all die). But guess what? Its a secret and so I am whispering, “We all die anyway.”
I think that the survival instinct is just that. You can’t escape from or rationalize away an instinct. I like doing survivalist stuff, and so I am going to get back too it. Nice to meet you.
Yours in “this fantastic moment in history”,
Pintada
I agree to a certain extent …. although my timing is a bit off…. if only this could be delayed another 20 years or so …
Oh to be 70+ with the engine starting to run down … and then get to see the greatest show in history…
Now that would be absolutely superb…
But then again …. it could be worse… one could be 18 and just getting started … when the party is ending… now that would be tragic…
What I don’t agree with is the part about the adventure… the aftermath… I don’t think you are going to like trying to survive the coming apocalypse… it’s going to be a far cry from loading up on gear from the outdoor store and heading into the woods for the weekend…
hey—my engine aint running down
The age is arbitrary http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/
gf will be relieved to hear that
The real tragedy of collapse will be the incredible waste of time for those just graduating college when the system collapses. Totally useless skills will be learned that afford no help in mitigating the coming disaster. What a waste. Born into the end times of a virtual world that is not sustainable.
Most people do not use the knowledge they gain in college already (unless you count knowledge of how to party). Rather than being tragic, they are fortunate to have had fun for a few years at the end of times whilst being able to rack up huge debts that will disappear when the financial system collapses.
another great article…
We are getting very very close http://wolfstreet.com/2016/06/03/jobs-report-bls-decline-in-temporary-workers-population-growth/
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/US-jobs-v-business-sales-20062016-05.png
There are numerous results when searching for Mark Toner on Google. But there is Mark C. Toner who works for the State Department. Why is he so important?
See my reply on the previous post.
Hey do you know Dirk Diggler?
I thought the statements in the article about the divergence from payroll data was interesting.
If this report is correct, we should expect more indications of low hiring in the near future.
0% Growth of China total energy consumption; 1st time in 17 years (2014)
https://yearbook.enerdata.net/
This is a chart I made of China’s energy consumption by source (and in total), using BP’s data put out a year ago. It shows a similar trend. Presumably, an update should be coming out shortly.
Thanks for another good read
I love the fuel charts. I always use them on the people that think that nuclear is the answer.
Everyone knows that this is the way.
The problem with nuclear is, even if molten salt thorium reactors (LFTR) should ever become working in practice, that we had to upscale nuclear by many times. Even if LFTR would produce only 10% of the waste – we still had more than today and still no clue or concept of how to deal with it!
In addition Nuclear (as coal) needs cooling – water. And water flows there or is there (oceans) where most of the times also earthquakes are.
Decommissioning is so (f*****) hugely expensive that may energy companies may still go broke over it – or it will be shifted to the state/taxpayer due to some dubious schemes – in Germany there is currently something in the making.
The big question is one of timing. The global economy looks like it is hovering well over the canyon by now, left the cliff edge behind long ago. Supported by mangled growth statistics. Now and then the markets look like participants have finally seen the reality of the situation with the sharp drops, then right themselves, and economists and other authoritative commentators insist all is well and the recovery continues. How much longer will the charade continue? Would Gail have any ideas on timing? Any insights from conversations or other sources of insider information that the rest of us do not have access to?
Ah yes the ageold question when is Peak BS?
Actually, I don’t believe those who ask that question are sincere. They want a date so they can reassure themselves it is ok when Armageddon does not occur as falsely prophesied.
We are in uncharted territory, but enjoy it while you can. There will be no graduated warnings so you can adjust. If you have not made serious preparations already I seriously suggest you buy a case of the finest whiskey – take a few days off and enjoy – then tell yourself doomers are a sad, sorry bunch of losers with all manner of unresolved issues (most likely Freudian etc.)
Hmmm, no, I am not looking for a date after which to disparage myself.
Back in the seventies, as a young lad, I set myself a goal of finding a solution to the oil problem. By the mid eighties I came to realise that there could be no solution to the multiple systems and resources issues already apparent where such a solution would allow us all to continue the lifestyles we were leading. Family members could not understand why I was depressed and so pessimistic. A great deal has happened around the world since then; I see our situation as having worsened significantly. However, although I recognise various events (most clearly those which have happened in MENA and southern Europe in recent years) as being part of a gradual global collapse in progress, I had expected worse by now.
I do not want the global misery and horror associated with collapse, but I see no alternative. When will the point be reached where people either choose or are forced to adapt to the changing circumstances? At what point will the pursuit of perpetual growth be replaced by the acceptance of the need and desirability of living within the planet’s means? And, yes, how much is left for preparation and for seeking to convince others of the need for such?
And everyone lived happily after – is a lie
unless you’re keeping the solution to yourself
Norm, what is the solution to be assailed by billions of imbeciles? Think.
blend in—become one of us
to be being assailed
Blend – arrrrrgh. Accept annihilation like a good little herd animal? You have not being paying attention.
i was offering a little humour to help you through the day
You’re not funny.
you are the first person ever to have said that
today
Norm…. you can take solace in the fact that it is difficult to be both right — and funny…. at the same time.
Especially when it comes to the end of more … there is very little humour in something that is going to cause billions to suffer, starve and die….
well, i’ve run out of sackcloth and ashes—a little humour is all i have left.
tis a sunny day and i intend to burn a little fossil fuel going on hols on wednesday
is it ok to hold off on the morosity till i get back?
‘perpetual growth be replaced by the acceptance of the need and desirability of living within the planet’s means’
Rat Island – 100 rats live on an island – a ship full of grain washes up on the shore – the rats gorge on grain — have sex orgies — and soon there are 10,000 rats.
The grain runs out. The rats starve and die.
We are no different than the rats. We want MORE. Always MORE. If someone foolishly says they have enough – then others will take your share of MORE quite happily.
That is the way it is. There is no changing this.
If I were to choose 1000 random middle class Americans and offer them 20 million dollars per year tax free and inflation adjusted for the rest of their lives. How many do you think would reject my offer?
Would you?
In old Edo, we controlled our numbers. We had to. We had reached close to the maximum carrying capacity that our farming and fishing efforts could support. As a result, the population of Japan remained at around 30 million for 130 years between 1720 and 1850. But the devil is in the details. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history_of_Japan_before_the_Meiji_Restoration#Population_during_the_Edo_and_early_Meiji_eras_.281600_to_1873.29
And now Japan has 127 million people…. and is set to implode…. humans eventually revert to the mean…..
The Emperor of the land of the rising sun sayeth: Thou shalt be fewer. And the People got older and eventually died. The Emperor sayeth, thou shalt stop smoking. And the People quit. The Emperor sayeth thou shalt borrow me money. And the People did. The emperor sayeth thou are a part of myself and shall sacrifice your life as I demand. And the People has and will fall on the sword as it is their pride and duty to serve.
I think we are dealing with something like falling dominos that eventually bring down the system. The question is which big domino falls first, and how it affects the rest of the system. We have a whole lot of choices as what can go wrong, where.
The latest US job report was down. I expect that future ones will be low as well. (Wolfstreet said that recent job reports had diverged from payroll data, and this divergence could not last.) Poor job reports will keep the US from raising interest rates. If the US raised interest rates, this would be like a falling domino.
But we have a lot of other dominos that could fall: China debt or yuan level, Japan debt, Italy debt, Saudi Arabia currency relative to $, trade wars over steel etc., Duetche Bank failing. I expect it will take more than one domino. I am always surprised things have held together as long as they have. I really don’t have special insight on the timing. Everyone is doing the best they can to keep problems hidden. Eventually problems start emerging.
” I really don’t have special insight on the timing. ” Let me take a stab at it.
I think Joesph A. Tainter, in his book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, said complex societies fail for complex reasons. “Complex reasons ” , in a layman’s term, is “multiple reasons. ”
I think what it will take is a combination of bad things happening that will overwhelm the system’s ability to respond to them. For countries, on the edge, like Egypt, all it took was a reversal of foreign capital flow out of its economy. Other places, like, say, California, it might take something like an earthquake, a severe drought, and a recession occurring at the same time.
For the world, it could be a combination of several things going or something unexpected and simple like a Geomagnetic storm storm destroying several transformers or a crop failure. Disasters can be catalysts because in a system with economic /complexity/ entropy problems the system would be unable to address the disasters quickly enough.
“Everyone is doing the best they can to keep problems hidden.” It’s hard to have a frank talk ANY problems when the vast majority of people BELIEVE the system is fundamentally sound and just need some reforms, like more socialism, Great Walls to keep the barbarians out, more Laissez-Faire policies, or retrofitting existing infrastructure with wind turbines and solar panels. One thing that reformers have in common is that they BELIEVE that reforms are low-cost or highly rewarding and politically feasible.
A popular opinion of Venezuela’s current problems is that they are due to political ideology run amuck. How do you make the case that Venezuela’s problems are related to limits to growth when Venezuela is said to have plenty of natural resources, unlike, say, Egypt?
My money is on a deflationary death spiral… companies profits continue to decline … this leads to layoffs… which results in less spending… more layoffs… bankruptcies and more layoffs… I see the end resembling a snowball picking up speed and more snow as it careens down a hillside… finally smashing into a wall at the bottom
Bernanke is on record as stating he fears deflation more than anything else.
If you would ask me, and speaking from my own experience, most larger companies are jobs programs created only for the consumerism to continue. Dullards participating in the most meaningless corporate duties, filling their days with endless meetings and careerist maneuvering.
It must be quite obvious for TPTB that the work output from their minions are quite close to zero, in most cases into the negative, in terms of productivity.
So there will be no massive layoffs, the Elders will keep on slow burning the retro boosters until kingdom come. As someone said, BAU unwashed.
It’s true that most people don’t do anything useful with their work, whatever useful may be. Someone recently wrote in this space that most people are spongers and only a few are producers. Can’t argue with that. However, producers are the one’s destroying the planet so I’m not sure they can claim any moral higher ground.
Well, it depends on how you derive your morality?
Less spongers equates less pollution and resource usage. But since BAU is rigged to incorporate these compulsive consumers and breeders, they will be slowly shifted out according to the principle: “never stir too hard in a can of crazy”
Also, I was pointing out that there will be no fast collapse thanks to these jobs programs.
BAU will slowly grind to a halt unless a new source of cheap energy becomes available. Whatever that might be. If any, ever.
In the mean time, lets together enjoy BAU getting down and dirty.
” Dullards participating in the most meaningless corporate duties, filling their days with endless meetings and careerist maneuvering.”
True, this kind of jobs do constitute an amazingly large fraction of all jobs. But I guess some of these jobs will have to disappear if profits start to decline. Profits seem to have been pushed up by zirp, nirp and massive amounts of QE which have increased demand and consumerism. The “job programs” wasn’t enough to keep the system turning.
Companies Wringing Huge Profits From Job Cuts (2010)
By most measures, Harley-Davidson has been having a rough ride.
Motorcycle sales are falling in 2010, as they have for each of the last three years. The company does not expect a turnaround anytime soon.
But despite that drought, Harley’s profits are rising — soaring, in fact. Last week, Harley reported a $71 million profit in the second quarter, more than triple what it earned a year ago.
This seeming contradiction — falling sales and rising profits — is one reason the mood on Wall Street is so much more buoyant than in households, where pessimism runs deep and joblessness shows few signs of easing.
Many companies are focusing on cost-cutting to keep profits growing, but the benefits are mostly going to shareholders instead of the broader economy, as management conserves cash rather than bolstering hiring and production. Harley, for example, has announced plans to cut 1,400 to 1,600 more jobs by the end of next year. That is on top of 2,000 job cuts last year — more than a fifth of its work force.
More http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/26/business/economy/26earnings.html
Does your experience involve working in Cuba?
The people I know working for corporations are run ragged — even more so now that they are expected to be ‘always on’ i.e. if you get an email at 9pm you are expected to answer it.
I understand that at some banks you are expected to answer an email – no matter what time it was sent – within a few hours. Otherwise that’s a strike against you.
Also – as corporations have leaned up since 2008 … that has meant even longer hours … taking on more duties… and far more pressure for white collar workers.
Christopher,
Indeed it is about time for some new financial hocus-pocus to keep this bloated abomination floating on top of the bonfires of debt. If it is allowed to descend too low….. Then…. 😉
Yes, layoffs are nothing new, they happened in the past, present, and will in the future.
This time it is carefully monitored as not to cause any major disruptions to an already fragile economic energy system.
I agree with that — given the recent quarters of significantly declining profits — coupled with the fact that it is difficult to argue for a reversal (the stimulus money is continuing to pour of the presses – interest rates are at record lows already…) — one would expect far higher numbers of layoffs…
One has to wonder if this is being managed … that people are being kept on payrolls… to prevent a massive ‘disruption’….
Whatever it takes.
FE, Of course the drones now have to “work harder”, now they compete against even more mindless entities – computers.
Well, obviously Harley is firing people in the assembly line since no one wants their overpriced and mossy fashion items anymore. Which is fine with me. The lesser of these vulgar and tasteless motorcycles there are, the happier I am.
But this to be a part of a “massive” layoff. I guess not. Just another normal day in our distorted BAU.
FE, indeed we are witnessing BAU 3.0 unraveling as the number of nonproductive white collar workers, administrators, are eliminated thanks to advanves in computer hardware and software. Just as in BAU 2.0 when the blue collar factory workers lost out to automation. And BAU 1.0 with farmers losing out to fossil fueled tractors and fertilizers.
Say welcome to the new distributed model of enterprises thanks to computational advances, with softwares enabling small teams to have world class engineering and administrative tooling for entering BAU 4.0. Of course with the Elders firmly in control of all information, media and monetary policies.
Only problem–no buyers for all of the goods and services being produced!
“The people I know working for corporations are run ragged — even more so now that they are expected to be ‘always on’ i.e. if you get an email at 9pm you are expected to answer it.”
FE, what business are you in? I am an actuary and can’t agree with your view. In fact productivity have rather declined the last five years and people don’t work very hard, but no layoffs in sight.
Pokemon,
“it is about time for some new financial hocus-pocus to keep this bloated abomination floating on top of the bonfires of debt”
Zirp, nirp and QE are no hocus pokus. The next step has to be basic income or something similar. If profits can’t be sustained layoffs have to come. It’s to simple to increase profits by layoffs to not do it.
Beside Harley-Davidsson there are a hugh amount of crazy products. I recently spoke to some engineers developing elevators at a scandinavian company. The elevators where for villas, typically two floor villas. I asked them if it was for disabled people. It turned out that their only costomers where chinese people wanting an elevator in their villa to show their wealth. In fact, the elevators where typically installed outside the villa, it would otherwise be harder for the neighbours to see it. Anyway, business for this elevator company was great. Without money flooding many companies have to quit.
I am involved in a number of businesses that include technology and online retail. Our people work extremely hard.
I know loads of lawyers and loads of bankers — they work very long hours I also know a lot of people in other industries and they are not working 9-5 … they are under the gun
Not clear where you are getting the info on layoffs — there have been plenty of layoffs of white collar workers since 2008 — see the crashing middle class — and I have seen plenty of articles detailing how fewer people are being saddled with ever more tasks — and they are accepting them without protest — because the other option is to be tossed out the door and into the unemployment line
Today’s Workforce—Pressed and Stressed
http://www.workforce.com/articles/today-s-workforce-pressed-and-stressed
As Budget and Staff Cuts Continue, HR Executives Face Pressure To Respond to New “Borderless Business Environment”
http://www.thehackettgroup.com/about/research-alerts-press-releases/2013/05062013-hr-executives-face-pressure-to-respond.jsp
There really are only two directions for the economy: up and down. Until the economy starts crashing, the direction is still up. Indirectly, the wealth comes from debt. In the example you mentioned of Chinese buyers, the wealth comes from all of the Chinese debt. There has to be some sort of discontinuity to bring things crashing down. That hasn’t come yet, even though commodity prices are below the cost of production.
Christopher,
To increase profits by reducing headcount can only be done if there are any head room left. One does not simply remove a wheel from a car in order to make it lighter and expect it to turn corners faster.
Yeah, the Chinese governmental corruption and money laundering schemes has some ‘interesting’ consequences in the west.
You are right, our current energy and economical situation probably neseccitates these policies. I should refrain from using such words. Thanks.
FE, my info concerns scandinavia. Somehow scandinavia have managed quite well through these last ten years. Except Finland where problems evidently are gathering up. I suspect the reason for this is that we managed to continue to increase debt levels quite fast. Also Australia and Canada managed this, they should be in a similar situation as for instance Sweden, where things look good (except for a credit bubble (companies and households) and a housing bubble). Keeping the old currencies instead of going for the euro probably also helped.
What you are seeing is the effect of credit bubbles. As long as they continue, things can look pretty good.
Things looked pretty good right up until the crash in 2008 as well…
I recall Jim Rogers saying to an attractive female financial actor (ah… presenter) when QE ZIRP started something like — I am sure things are going to be awesome in the coming years — if you could get your hands on billions of dollars and agreed to take me along we could have a fantastic party … but eventually the party will end…. and the hangover will be horrific….
FE, just because you are kept busy at work does not mean you are productive. Usually there is an inverse relation between your efforts and skill. For example, the most productive software engineers usually write the least amount of code.
If you fire 2 people and load there duties on the person you retain…. which is what has been happening …. that person can only do so much in a day no matter how productive that person is … when the boss is hammering on them to get the work of 3 people done in a day … the stress is immense
That is where many in the corporate world are now… but they put up with it …. because there are no jobs… no alternatives… (well.. there’s the sales boy job at the Gap)
I know a lot of corporate people who were the two who were let go — and they have been looking for work for over a year … I suspect most will not find jobs comparable to the ones they left… the stress of that is no doubt far more intense than that on the person who was retained.
“To increase profits by reducing headcount can only be done if there are any head room left. One does not simply remove a wheel from a car in order to make it lighter and expect it to turn corners faster.”
As mentioned there is plenty of head room left, you wrote this:
“Dullards participating in the most meaningless corporate duties, filling their days with endless meetings and careerist maneuvering.”
Yes, it is generally true. Of course there are many exceptions with well-run lean operations. BAU 4.0 style.
“What you are seeing is the effect of credit bubbles. As long as they continue, things can look pretty good.”
Yes, indeed. What’s the multiplicator between increased debt and effect on gdp? Debt issed to companies, households and governments may have different multiplicators. I am not aware of any good research in this subject, maybe Gail or someone lese knows.
For instance Sweden, Norway, Canada and Australia have all managed to sustain growth through impressive growth of debt and the 2008 crash and its consequences were almost not noticed. The recent crash in prices of raw materials had some effect but not yet any severe effects on these economies. No bubbles have burst yet. The credit growth in these economies seems to be within the houshold and company sectors. In a crashing economy government debt replaces these other debt sectors.
FE, another solution would be to take a loan and replace the two inefficient paper shuffling busy working drones with the modern equivalent of a tractor: A computer with software.
Say good bye to the old model and welcome to BAU 4.0.
Gail, there are buyers, just not for the excesses of the economy. If production throttles down does not neccesarily result in mass layoffs. Because of the simple fact that one does not just simply fire an electric motor or a tractor. They can be decommissioned, sold or scrapped.
Yes, we are hitting limits, of the desire of more material posessions. The recent boom in the gaming and internet based services should be an indicator of this. Do you know of any one software engineer unemployed? Without a job? Learn how to code!
“Yes, we are hitting limits, of the desire of more material posessions. The recent boom in the gaming and internet based services should be an indicator of this. Do you know of any one software engineer unemployed? Without a job? Learn how to code!”
Most people can not learn how to code. I have been teaching science at university, even among the science students most people are terrible programmers. But many people that code are really lousy programmers so maybe you can make everyone earn their living as a programmer if you start some kind of crazy job program…
It’s more reasonable to try basic income. It could work for a while.
I have employed quite a few coders… it is quite difficult to find good ones…. and I can imagine if one decided to become a coder not out of a passion for coding rather because there are jobs in that field… one would not be very good at this…. it is not easy…
There are lots of jobs for engineers as well… again …. most people are not capable.
One of my sons is mildly autistic and is very good at coding. He has a terrible time getting through interviews and he can’t drive, but he can do a great job at fixing bugs in programs.
The other issue with coding jobs is that a lot of them can be done remotely …. so a lot of it gets off-shored to lower-cost centres….
India is of course one …. Shanghai is meant to have top people…. eastern Europe (where we do all our work) probably provides the highest quality at a reasonable price.
More breadwinner jobs gone…. and with IP products you don’t have to worry about tariffs when shipping the product….
Christopher:
Basic income has been around since the 60’s in Sweden, carefully obfuscated and well hidden under fancy words and various government programs.
Technology shows that the emperor have no clothes and as a last resort more lies than usual have to be perpetrated through the various brainwashing channels.
FE and Christopher:
Indeed coding is pretty much like writing. A good book isn’t judged by the amount of words or how pretty the cover is.
FE:
Try paying more and select your coders more carefully. As Linus Thorvalds, father of Linux and Git, once stated: “Talk is cheap – show me your code”
All of our coders must pass coding tests before they are hired. Tests are administered and evaluated by third party companies who specialize in this.
Pokemon,
No, Basic income should be a sum of money paid to everyone. Closest Sweden has had is the not means tested money you get for each child.
If it should have any chance to “work” it also has to replace most of the other welfare systems
FE, then perhaps replace the people evaluating your coders. The top coders move to and work in the US, it is where the best compensation, bread and circuses can be obtained.
Christopher, that would make large swaths of the nonproducer drones and compulsive consumers in the public sector rather redundant. Thus it will not happen.
Gail, does not most, if not all of the best programmers have som sort of ‘problem’, when compared to whatever is considered normal these days. Perhaps your son should apply for a job whrere his portfolio is of more importance than how well he performs pleasantries and canned replies during interviews?
The best of the best would no doubt be in Silicon Valley … but we don’t need the best of the best — we just need good and not too expensive… we’ve had very good success working out of eastern europe….
Some of the biggest companies in US use eastern european web dev…. the company we work with handles Ebay, Toyota, expedia, shell, and a number of other major corporations….
I expect quite a few coders are a little odd. Businesses still seem to like to interview and ask questions like, “Where do you see yourself ten years from now?”
A relatively low percentage of people who are autistic have jobs–20% is one number I have seen. My son has done much better than average, in getting and keeping jobs. It helps that he can really do the work. He has a contract job that has been extended several times.
“Christopher, that would make large swaths of the nonproducer drones and compulsive consumers in the public sector rather redundant. Thus it will not happen.”
Most people are in fact already redundant as part of the productive work force, eventhough they they belong to the work force, as we agreed on earlier on. Furthermore, digitalization will clearly make people even more redundant. But people are needed as consumers. This is where basic income could play an important role. Furthermore, basic income could give consumers a monetary boost sufficient to increase consumtion to make the system stick together if consumtion levels gets critically low. In other words, it could postpone a financial collapse, which is an important theme of this site. This winter Finland decided to introduce basic income. Recently Switzerland decided to not indtroduce it. Anyway it’s a topic that is likely to become more frequently discussed.
Christopher and DJ, right!
I wasnt aware that Finland was to implement full blown Basic income. It will be interesting to follow how this experiment evolves. A TPTB pilot project perhaps, using Finland as a guinea pig, ironing out the nasty side effects before pushing it out on a larger scale?
Pokemon,
sounds reasonable. One advantage with using Finland is that they has and have had almost no immigration.
If Sweden or Switzerland would try UBI they would need to solve how to handle a couple % annual population increase.
“Natural resources” depend on what they are and what you can do with them. The CIA Fact book
lists “petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, bauxite, other minerals, hydropower, diamonds.”
Venezuela’s biggest natural resource has been oil. But when its price is low, it cannot get enough money for the oil. The fact that the price is (probably) above the direct production cost doesn’t matter. Venezuela needs the tax revenue it gets from oil to pay for its programs. In fact, prices are down for pretty much anything that Venezuela would like to export from that list. This hurts its revenue.
Hydroelectric has recently been a major problem for Venezuela. It had planned to get the vast majority of its electricity from hydroelectric. Unfortunately, there has been a drought, and the amount of electricity that can be generated is down. A recent article was titled, Waning hydroelectric power output leads to four-day workweek in Venezuela.
With respect to agriculture, we see: agricultural land: 24.5%
arable land 3.1%; permanent crops 0.8%; permanent pasture 20.6%
With this little arable land and crops, clearly Venezuela cannot feed itself. It can raise some animals, but it likely has to import a lot of food. The drought no doubt makes things worse.
Another issue is that Venezuela has been overspending on social programs for a long time. It has obtained loans from China, in return for promises for future oil production, so that it could finance its overspending programs in the past. I read one article that indicated that most of these loan programs were written with clauses in them that required the borrowing country to pay back more oil if prices are low, than they would have needed to pay, if prices had remained high. (Loans are as if they were in $ or yuan; more oil is needed to pay back, if the oil price is low.) Now that the price for oil and other commodities for export are low, Venezuela cannot keep up these programs.
I understand that the sun is a good source of vitamin d …
If I could offer you one tip for the future — do NOT use sunscreen…. you cannot absorb vitamin d if you do that….
This guy (Elon Musk at Code Conference 2016) needs the help of the specialists on mental health treatment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2KK_kzrJPS8
Or does he take drugs?
Recently, a similar guy in the region where I live was blocking an ambulance car that was rushing to the patient with his fast car. When interrogated, he stated that he was helping the ambulance…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ejjj7RxW40M
The reaction of the police was that they not only took him his driving licence, but also his legally-owned weapons. And require from him a new medical assessment and a new psychological assessment of his mental health.
I think that Elon Musk needs the same, because his recent statements are more and more distant from the reality…
Most of the time, politics is normal, but a small amount of it gets extreme at the edges. Reality is no different, and then you enter the Twilight Zone. It may happen to you one day. Musk seems very lucid. Plenty of lucid people talk about weird events in their lives:
https://www.reddit.com/comments/oeo0h/reddit_tell_me_your_glitch_in_the_matrix_stories
https://www.reddit.com/r/Glitch_in_the_Matrix/
Well, Elon Musk either does not understand the reason why the world is changing in a certain direction, or he makes use of the stupidity of others…
There is no such thing as simulation without the external energy. It is our use of the external energy that allowed us to create simulations.
The deeds of God, as the embodiment of external energy, is something else than simulation, because they represent unexplainable changes in the reality that incorporate into the reality and its laws.
Thus, the simulation, is always dependent on some kind of external energy.
Our todays world is a simulation… that was created using external energy. But the external energy for this simulation becomes increasingly costly.
The people like Elon Musk lack the external energy element in their concepts.
“The people like Elon Musk lack the external energy element in their concepts.”
That is to assume that other entities would discover only the technologies that we have. It ain’t necessarily so. And some may have planned ahead rather more carefully than we have done. Remember, the multiverse must be trying out every which way, of which we are probably only one.
There may be some other undiscovered types of energy besides the electric energy. We do not know. But Elon Musk operates with the known energies, he does not use any kind of new energy.
Computation can be made reversible.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reversible_computing
Computation can be made with zero net energy. Whatever ‘energy’ means outside of the realms of our universe, one can only speculate.
Computations can be made reversible, but I would doubt that such calculations would represent real-world situations. Especially with zero net energy, we are likely creating a situation that is similar to “dividing by zero.” It is easy to kid ones-self with calculations, when the real situation is non-linear, and you are dealing with zeros in the calculation.
Gail,
I think it is reasonable to view the universe as a result of some sort of thermodynamically and time reversible computation. It still does not answer the fundamental question of why there is something instead of nothing, computation or not.
But at least it is possibe to explain with our current understanding of reality.
XKCD explains it very well.
https://xkcd.com/505/
Furthermore, a division by zero does not represent a number nor infinity. It is simply just not defined. Or perhaps it is the result of a flaw in the underlying theory and corresponding mathematical model.
The point with entropy is that time is not reversible. Most people have experienced shattering of glass of water that drops to the ground. The reversion of this process is rare. Time clearly has a direction and is irreversible which is explained by entropy.
I squeezed out too much tooth paste this morning by accident … I have spent that past 10 hours trying to get it back in … without success
I agree!
FE, you could have put the tooth paste on some of your stockpiled tooth brushes…
Old and dried toothpaste is an abomination and should immediately be purged from planet earth, together with the rest of the grenish cancery goo that seem to have spread and now appears to cover most, if not all, pristine and pure rock.
Yes, I am the One, the destroyer of blogs, the purificator of plaque, the arbiter of cleanliness. Indeed, I am Pure Freddy.
yup—there are infinite multiverses, where doomsters are proved wrong and this blog is called ”your infinite world” and prosperity really does go on forever
where another Elon Musk makes open top battery cars that derive their energy from a solar panel on your hat
Imagine mankind with a <200 IQ on average. Unfortunately a woman can not give birth to a child with a larger skull carrying a more capable brain. And without modern medicine giving birth is quite a risky business thanks to our ape anatomy. Hence we are probably a little too stupid to take off into the stars.
Don’t have to imagine it. By definition, average IQ is 100.
“Hence we are probably a little too stupid to take off into the stars.” Maybe we’re smarter for not putting any more effort into taking off into the stars. There aren’t any resources in space to sustain human life or make human space travel feasible.
few can accept that the wright brothers and NASA use the same technology–ie exploding force of chemical combustion.
I need some urgent help from captain obvious now. Perhaps he can save me from the next ‘witty’ comment?
There isn’t any resources in space? Well apparently there must be since we all are surfing BAU just this moment. If you still find it hard to believe me; let me ask, where is the solar system situated?
Hum, NASA uses several forms of propulsion depending on the mission. From chemical rocketry to ion thrusters. And nuclear decay for heat and electricity generation. Solar panels for planetary rovers.
And an Otto engine isn’t exploding anything. It is a controlled expansion of air and fuel mixture
Why not space?
Good article by Tom Murphy. Among other things, he mentions that there are some things that we used to be able to do, but that we can’t anymore. Sending a man to the moon is one of them. Another is crossing the Atlantic at supersonic speeds.
Yorchichan, yeah why not?
When we eventually are done pillaging and poisoning the earth, let us build a Death Star with our bio-mechanical cyborg bodies and then let Sith Lord Fast Eddy press the button and pop a death ray hole right in between Europe and America.
Apparently can engineers and scientists together with BAU produce the most remarkable machines and novel ideas conceivable.
Let’s keep this tradition going for as long as possible and in the process, eradicate all spongers and nonproductive human drones.
BAU to the stars.
I’m confused. Tom Murphy argues why we are not going to be getting resources from space anytime soon (i.e. ever). And he’s funnier than me. Maybe even funnier than Norm!
What do you mean by “we”? As a representative of Mankind?
Whatever entity that becomes the logical conclusion of mankind, if it is even possible at all, still remains to be decided, it will. But I sincerely doubt this.
However you and your buddies reasoning, knowledge, wit and humor eludes me. Don’t worry though, this time it’s on me.
‘Yet still he prepares for self-sufficiency’
Nah – I am just stocking up for my end of world party … did I mention that I was filling up the 20ft container yesterday and I was aggregating my booze supply into 40 gallon drums — I carefully placed bottles of wine and whiskey into said drums filling to the brim two of them!
I have no illusions about what is coming — there is no surviving — but Mrs Fast also knows what is imminent — and she is comforted by the 20 foot container… it is her Jesus…. her solar panels… her windmills…
Then there is the matter of Mr DNA … I keep telling him to piss off… but he insists that I fill up the container… he refuses to accept death.
But I have a very nasty surprise in store for Mr DNA … the surprise apparently has a top speed of 250km/hr…. as I approach the rock cut at maximum velocity I will be shouting ‘ Joo wanna play rough – Okay — Say hallo to my little friend!!!’
More like this….you got to rehearse this skit with Ms Eddy
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8sljSf7KVlQ
Cheers, the Brits have it down when disaster hits
Yes, yes. Much Monty Python on the way down, but here’s a song for our demise:
http://youtu.be/dPYPt6uVQ04
Astrophysicist Fred Hoyle (1915-2001) in Of Men and Galaxies (University of Washington Press: Seattle, 1964, p. 63): “It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on the Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing intelligence his is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species howeve competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only.”
Dear theedrich;
Yup, and that explains why there are no aliens on Earth today. Our predicament is no doubt the typical one for every intelligent creature that evolves on any planet. The evolution of a species cannot keep up with the rocket like changes in an industrial/technological society. Decision get made with an animal brain that worked in the savanna (go to the mall, etc.) but do not work anymore.
Yours Within the Empty Universe,
Pintada
Now, I am very sensitive to the various sorts of mini collapses going on around the world. If I wasn’t, then I would not have lost faith in this global system.
My point is…if you are living in dystopia, and it collapses…what’s the problem? We have been living in a fake, nasty, cynical world for at least 15 years if not longer. It’s not a world I care about, and it necessarily follows that the decline or collapse doesn’t bother me.
You guys pretend this is the best of all possible worlds, and then get upset at its end. It’s a comfortable world, to be sure, but to describe the world today as great is obviously wrong.
Collapse brings about the conditions through which creative destruction and change comes about. Bring it on, I say. I couldn’t care less about people, so what happens to them is not my concern. If a billion people die…6 billion will be left! Humanity won’t miss a beat.
Dear dolph911;
dolph911 said, “You guys pretend this is the best of all possible worlds, and then get upset …” You got some mice in your pocket there buddy?
Yes, there will be some change … If only 7 billion die, there will be several hundred thousand left!
If we all die, there will be – at a minimum – some tube worms living around a nice black smoker. Life goes on, and who is to say those tube worms are not the pinnacle of evolution anyway?
dolph rocks,
Pintada
“We have been living in a fake, nasty, cynical world for at least 15 years if not longer. ”
Wrong. Industrialization has been with us for about 100 years.
BAU is industrial society, it’s the financial system, it’s fossil fuels, and video games.
“My point is…if you are living in dystopia, and it collapses…what’s the problem? We have been living in a fake, nasty, cynical world for at least 15 years if not longer. It’s not a world I care about, and it necessarily follows that the decline or collapse doesn’t bother me.”
What a stupid term to bring into this discussion, dystopia. Introducing a literary term like dystopia, here, assumes that utopia ever existed on Earth and that the problems we are facing are new. The scale of our problems are unprecedented but they are not new.
If this system goes down, it will take you with it. It will take everyone in your family with it. It may take the entire human race down with it. Are you sure that’s not going to bother you one bit?
“Collapse brings about the conditions through which creative destruction and change comes about. Bring it on, I say.”
The end of industrial civilization is not ” creative destruction”. This not a matter of few industries being replaced by other industries. This not a matter of few currencies being replaced by other currencies. We’re not in the midst of a “revolution”. Revolutions are like a renewal for a civilization. What we are facing, ultimately, is the end of our civilization.
I think your problem is that you’re so far from the physical world–you continuously reference abstractions like “money” and “video games” that you don’t seem to understand what the end of industrial civilization means.
Some time ago there were comments posted on this site calling the end of BAU the beginning of a great adventure — something to be looked forward to …
It boggles the mind.
Dear A Real Black Person;
If one does the psychological/emotional work needed to go through all the stages of grief and can come out the other side, it may look like the person thinks that it will “not going to bother you one bit”. Acceptance is not the same as not being bothered, and not caring.
It is happening. It will happen, and when it does I am ready because my grieving is over. From your post, I see that you are at least partly still in denial. You have a lot of work to do.
Sincerely,
Pintada
If you actually read my response, I was saying that dolph911 hasn’t accepted it for what it is .
“I see that you are at least partly still in denial. You have a lot of work to do.” You either didn’t read my response, didn’t understand it, because there is nothing in what I wrote where I expressed any denial about the situation.
What a stupid term to bring into this discussion, dystopia. Introducing a literary term like dystopia, here, assumes that utopia ever existed on Earth and that the problems we are facing are new. The scale of our problems are unprecedented but they are not new.
But utopia has existed on Earth, at the Nearing homestead in the hills of old Vermont, where they manually built stone houses and barns, tilled their gardens, dined on raw vegetables, and generally lived The Good Life.
http://www.monsanto.com/sitecollectionimages/agricultural-milestones-population.jpg
http://worldhistoryforusall.sdsu.edu/images/bigeras/era3/population_growth.gif
https://powerplantmen.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/rambo.jpg
http://www.monsanto.com/sitecollectionimages/agricultural-milestones-population.jpg
Around 10000 years ago, before the shift to agriculture, our population consisted of about only 2 or 3 million individuals. 2000 years ago, however, our population had grown staggeringly to 250 million. Today our population exceeds 6 billion. Technology and improvements in health care are partly responsible for this drastic change, but humanity’s switch to agriculture started this major change.
http://foodevolves.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/agricultures-effect-on-human-population_27.html
Archaeologist Stephen Shennan of University College London and his colleagues used 8,000 radiocarbon dates from sites across Europe to calculate rises and falls in population before, during, and after the introduction of agriculture. They found that two major population booms were followed by declines by as much as 30 to 60 percent. The first boom was some 7,500 years ago, when Europe’s earliest farming culture began, and the second was 6,000 years ago, perhaps due to the rise in keeping livestock for their dairy products.
http://www.archaeology.org/news/1343-131001-europe-farming-population
Population growth after the development of agriculture has been one of the most dramatic features of human evolution.
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2FBF01256568#page-1
Causes of Overpopulation:
Agriculture has been the main factor behind human population growth. This dates back to prehistoric times, when agricultural methods were first developed, and continues to the present day, with fertilizers, agrochemicals, large-scale mechanization, genetic manipulation, and other technologies.[74]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_overpopulation#Agriculture
Had enough yet?
I wonder if the first farmers reminisced about the good old days of hunting and gathering … simpler times…
I wonder if they ranted each time a new farming implement was developed and embraced by the new generation….
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Dr. Tverberg,
Another great piece with some novel analysis! Unfortunately, I found your criticisms of EROI and biophysical economics a little outdated, or misinformed. Biophysical economics does not claim to begin and end at eroi or even energy analysis towards economic realities; it picks up the pieces dropped by previous economic advancements, such as neoclassical (as you pointed out in the piece) and even ecological economics in some cases. Objectively describing the economy through empirical evidence is exactly the aim, but BPE is in its infancy and the tools and insights it has to offer in terms of what is happening now, will come to fruit in the future. BPE does not discount items such as debt, for example, but maybe is too busy describing other aspects of the global economy at the moment given the failures of methods before it. BPE would add your analysis inside its boundaries, if not also try to describe it physically. I don’t see the contrast in what you wrote here (thanks again!) and what the BPE community would describe as happening in todays global economy.
Beyond that, the social constructs we have in place today (debt, nationalism, currency) might not even exist in the another century and so and by attempting to relate these constructs in a physical and scientific context could be very useful to those who would want to know about our economy in the future, or relate it to the distant past. In this context, neoclassical economics, for example, represents only how we do things today using a small set of what are now loose definitions, corrupt data sets, and constant revisions to stocks and flows. In other words, BPE is trying to do better than those before it, and it probably will.
Finally, in defence of EROI research, no serious energy researcher, be it Charles Hall or anyone else has ever said that EROI is most useful on its own. You know that. Everyone knows EROI should be accompanied by at least net-energy analysis. If people are jumping from EROI data to economic policy they are not in the BPE sphere. That being said, I personally find that as we are for the first time moving from higher and higher EROI fuels to ones that are not higher than the previous ones, that this is a good place to start thinking about energy and our economies as we move forward into the century, whatever ones expectations might be; but of course there is much more to the story.
Thanks again for the data and analysis! Truly a fan of your work.
Thanks for your thoughts. Glad you are a fan of my work. I also received email comments from Charles Hall. He told me that EROI doesn’t work well for my questions, but it does for his. But to keep on with my research.
If we truly had an energy shortage (rather than not an oversupply of entropy), EROI would be a great way of figuring out how to optimally extend fossil fuel energy supply using renewables–assuming that the system as a whole would hold together.
I presume I will see you at the conference in Washington DC later this month.
Yes, it’s not shortage of energy but an oversupply of entropy that’s the problem. Entropy manifesting itself as increasing costs of raw materials, complex infrastructure, generous labour regulations, vulnerability to extreme weather conditions, immigration and social unrest, increasing debt levels and so on. At the moment France seems to be the best example of the oversupply of entropy:
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/03/news/france-paris-floods-strikes-terrorism-travel/
France needs to get rid of quite a load of entropy. The problem: entropy can not be diminished unless you dump it somewhere else. Preferably, this other place, where to dump entropy, has a low entropy density, unfortunately these places are increasingly difficult to find.
You are right. I was recently in Europe, but didn’t get as far as France. France clearly has a lot of entropy. If our problem were simply a lack of fossil fuel energy, they would be much easier to deal with.
BPE might call it low exergy? It does not yet have a formalized nomenclature in my opinion but I am behind.
Most unfortunately I cannot make it to the conference this time. Are you presenting?
Try and catch presentation by Francois-Xavier Chavellerau. I highly recommend.
This is the link to the website for the Biophysical Economics conference. http://bpeconomics.org If you scroll down the front page, you will discover that I am shown as the first of the featured speakers. (They clearly did not ask me for the photo, however.)
Paris flooding linked to Climate Change:
http://www.12newsnow.com/story/32130290/the-latest-paris-flood-estimates-off-due-to-blocked-sensor
“Worldwide record-breaking rainfall has increased 12 percent from 1980 to 2010, when compared to the previous 80 years, according to a 2015 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research study published in the journal Climatic Change. In Europe, the increase was 31 percent.
American climate scientist Chris Field says “one of the clearest signs of climate change, over much of the world, is the increase in the fraction of the rain that falls in the heaviest events.”
Field headed a special 2012 report on extreme weather by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
He said that “a warmer atmosphere can hold more water. And the consequences can be traumatic, as individuals, businesses, and communities struggle to manage very heavy rains.””
Dear richard;
“Paris flooding linked to Climate Change”
It took a major genius to realize that. Im surprised that they could find a main stream climatologist to actually say it though. Funding does not flow to people that speak the harsh truth.
From the article:
“The German Insurance Association estimates this week’s flooding has caused some 450 million euros ($500 million) in damage in the state of Baden-Wuerttemberg alone.
The agency, which represents some 460 member companies, said Friday that in addition to the costs for insured houses and contents, there would also be many payments for damaged vehicles and businesses, the dpa news agency reported.
Baden-Wuerttemberg was hit by the flooding first early in the week. Areas of Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia, which are not in the cost estimate, also suffered damage later in the week.”
So, I have been waiting for the day that these damages stop increasing GDP, and start becoming a drag on the various economies involved. In Syria, the AGW caused drought caused the first protests, and riots and then indirectly caused the civil war. I’m waiting for the “natural” disaster that can be linked directly to a decrease in GDP. It will happen, and when it does, the article announcing it will probably not include the words, anthropomorphic, or human caused. (and I will LMAO)
Yours in Change,
Pintada
When I was in Germany recently, we saw high water marks on buildings. Some of these were from centuries ago, and were on the second stories of buildings. The comment was made in one place that floods came about every five years, and they were about due for another one. Apparently, they plan for the first floor of buildings along rivers to be flooded, because it happens so often. This is similar to one we saw in Passau, Germany.
It is possible to link anything — absolutely anything — to “climate change”. And if you’re really clever, you can get government funding to investigate that link.
But that’s just the start. You can also get new laws and regulations that force businesses to change their business practices, cut electricity and fuel consumption, and purchase new facilities or carbon offsets in order remain compliant. You can also get consumers to purchase “green” and “clean energy” products and tax-payers to fund “climate change” initiatives.
Hillary Clinton thinks Iraq is a great business opportunity, but as an earner it’s nothing to compared to climate change. Just ask Elon Musk.
And you can do so much more!
For instance… you can – as Germany has – take money from the taxpayer to subsidize massive boondoggles otherwise known as solar panel and windmill farms….
Things that would NEVER get built without massive subsidies and corresponding amounts of delusional thinking.
Things that not only are wickedly expensive to build and operate — but which also push electricity rates through the roof because they are intermittent suppliers of electricity —- meaning the old reliable fossil fuel and nuclear generators must also be keep operational.
All in the name of battling climate change.
Insanity x Madness x Delusion x Craziness x Stupidity. x 1,998,098,765,903,278,998,763,0000
Take a look at this new report about Denmark’s wind energy program. http://pfbach.dk/firma_pfb/references/pfb_towards_50_pct_wind_in_denmark_2016_03_30.pdf
The results are terrible. Dumping lots of intermittent wind energy on the grid, when the market was already supplied with fossil fuel energy has had what I would consider predictable results. Spot (wholesale) prices for electricity have fallen, creating a need for larger and larger subsides to make wind energy profitable. Between 2012 and 2015, subsidies increased from 47% to 66% of total cost. At the same time, retail residential rates (which include surcharges to make up for the subsidy) have been rising. Thermal plants needed for backup when wind is low are closing down, making Denmark more dependent on its neighbors for electric supply when wind is low.
This alternative energy thingy is absolute madness.
Surely it had to have been obvious to even the dumbest politician that solar and wind were intermittent — and thus they’d end up with two complete generation systems if they wanted power to be available on demand….
Yet they not only went ahead with this — they are even pushing for more…
I suppose it doesn’t really matter — we are imploding with or without this — the sheeple are starting to enter the slaughter house so if this is what it takes to keep them calm it’s not madness at all…
http://www.sheepcanada.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Metchosin1-300×263.gif
Wind power is like imaginary numbers in mathematics. They will be discarded once the computation is done.
Which critically thinking person does like these stupid propellers littering an otherwise pretty landscape while pretending to produce anything of value? Their main contribution is the folly of feelgood energy, created as a good old fashioned government jobs program, subsidied by real FF power. In esscence a dumb idea for an ignorant population, too spoilt by BAU to even rationalize about their utter dependence of FF’s.
The only ‘semi’ real green energy is hydro and geothermal wherever they are a viable option. Otherwise it is FF and nukes, once they get deregulated, if ever.
+++++++++++++++ to infinity.
FE, I have discovered a new brilliant idea for wind power. Let us feed and power them with FF generated electricity, in the process they will provide a nice breeze to counteract the GW consequence of burning FF’s. It will be glorious, and oh let us all together dwell and enjoy the irony for a moment, in between the bouts of our melancholy.
Yours truly, the very reincarnated Tesla of a crumbling BAU 3.0. The closer of positive feedback loops. A monster in the pocketto.
That is truly inspirational — I stand in awe and admiration — a circular energy system….
If you moved to DelusiSTAN you would get a PHD for that idea!!!
And …. you would be hanging out with the who’s who of great ideas that make no sense and can only exist with subsidies from RealitySTAN — including Elon.
Governments from California to Germany will be lined up around the block with suitcases of tax payer money fighting to be the first to roll this out incredible economically unfeasible concept.
Because that’s what they do!
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
The Movement of the Politically Correct announced today that their lobbying efforts with the Nobel Prize committee demanding an award for the Kingdom of DelusiSTAN were finally successful.
The finalists for the Prize – which is to be awarded to the most brilliant idea that is also the stupidest — are:
– Solar generated electricity
– Windmill generated electricity
– Pokeman’s idea
– Tesla
– and finally, Fast Eddy’s renewable solar panel production plant in New Zealand that breeds sheep with solar panels creating more solar panels
The winner is the idea with the least votes — and receives 1 trillion dollars of tax payers hard earned money that could have been spent on schools and hospitals and roads and other useless sh it but instead will be wasted on making the most brilliant stupid idea a reality.
Vote Now.
I am intrigued by the sheeple option. We all know that breeding is possible and solar is viable. So, it is just a matter of bio engineering gmo and massive govt subsidies to make this work. Right? It can not be any flaw in my reasoning, now can it?
However, to be completley PC, the rams might end up depressed from all the action taking place elswhere. Though, with all the freshly available and abundant solar electrons at our disposal, let us build a solar powered megafactory and produce sheep compatiblle hopium for the deprived rams. Since the demand will be astronomical, we can fire the FF plants during the night shifts. It is mostly dark then anyway, nobody will notice our little dirty secret. Loop closed. Perfect. BAU 7.0 Sheep powered.
Vee hav…. vut vould be considered…. za breakthrough….
Put za lipstick on za solar panel zen duct tape za sheep skin of a female sheep to za panel… and za ram vill go vild for za panel .. he will make vut do you call it… make za luv to za panel…
Vundabah… ziss is good no? Ven do I get za prize money?
Ziss is zee photo of za paddock I am using for za experiment…
http://www.hiveenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/CNWBJA2.jpg
I was in Yemen a few years ago — and I took a photo of a camel with blinkers on turning a grinding stone … he was in a small enclosure going round and round and round and round…
I am wondering if we could power the world (or at least NZ since there are a lot of sheep here) with sheep yoked to similar contraptions … the sheep could work round the clock on shifts…
If one puts one mind to this one realizes there are literally thousands of great stupid ideas out there…. the only limit is one’s imagination ….
What we need is an venture capital fund for this … it could be funded by taxpayer cash — and managed by very lazy, very corrupt bureaucrats with no experience whatsoever in identifying ideas that are feasible…. The ideal candidates would have a proven track record of finding and funding the biggest white elephants…. and wasting hundreds of billions of dollars.
I reckon that the best place to advertise for fund managers would be in California and Germany.
Somehow, we would need to feed all of those sheep. Some of the sheep might be used for food, but I expect total acreage for growing human food would go down.
Of course the fall back is firing a cable hooked to a grappling hook into the centre of the sun … we tap the intense heat and use it to boil water which could create immense amounts of electricity.
Massive government subsidies come from surpluses of the economy; surpluses of the economy come from increased use of cheap energy, generally from fossil fuels. Massive government subsidies will disappear.
You should read this book. You might learn something. http://www.amazon.com/Vortex-Violence-losing-climate-change/dp/150766267X?ie=UTF8&keywords=Kevin%20lister&qid=1465458431&ref_=sr_1_1&s=books&sr=1-1
More oil on its way, for how long?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-lukoil-iraq-idUSKCN0YP18Q
“Iraq has positively surprised oil majors by starting quickly to repay accumulated debts, the head of Russia’s Lukoil said, pledging more investment to allow OPEC’s second-largest producer to maintain stellar output growth.”
“Lukoil is producing 0.4 million bpd in Iraq and if it did triple output at the West Qurna field, the country would be able to produce more than 5 million bpd. Only Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States produce more oil – more than 10 million bpd each. Iraq ultimately hopes to close the gap and extract as much as 8 million bpd from its huge reserves, the world’s fifth-largest after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Canada and Iran.”
“Iraq has positively surprised oil majors by starting quickly to repay accumulated debts, the head of Russia’s Lukoil said, pledging more investment to allow OPEC’s second-largest producer to maintain stellar output growth.”
So, in the name of profit and debt repayment, the oil will continue to flow at even higher rates. I wounder if these guys ever discuss CO2 emissions and global warming as they open the valves to pump 800,000 barrels onto yet a tanker headed for China and India where that excess capacity will be turned into heat, NOX, and CO2, 🙂
Same will go for the Frackers in the US…. As soon as the oil price reaches the right level, the spigots will open, money will flow, and the elite Banking cartel will be happy.
Damn the planet !…. I want to make millions before the other guy does.!
I want to be filthy rich before the planet burns !.
Growth at all costs !!!!
The key to all of this is the IMF, and more debt:
The IMF is encouraging Iraq to repay debts. If the IMF lent huge dollar amounts to Venezuela and Nigeria, they temporarily could do much better. I wouldn’t count on much payback from Venezuela and Nigeria, however. Iraq payback probably depends on future oil price.
Attention Dooms Day Preppers! Attention Attention Attention.
This is another Dooms Day Tip of the Day from your The King of Doom otherwise known as Fast Eddy.
If you are looking to secure your guns and ammo and food and other stuff…. I suggest you purchase a shipping container. The 20 footers cost at most a few thousand dollars… you can fit a whole lotta stuff in one of those suckers. I spent the day shifting my Dooms Day stash into a container and it’s not even half full.
Happy Dooming fellow Doomers.
Great information…stock it up….those that jack your butt will toast you for your generous largesse. Like the local PTB are unaware of your plans? Fast Eddy is in for a Scott Nearing education…..the hard way…L.L.L. from the College of Hard Knocks.
Oh if the post BAU world could resemble a Scott Nearing farm!
A little pick up truck… cement … electricity… roads… hospitals… a lovely Florida vacation every winter…
Damn — if you can guarantee that I’m calling off the End of Days Party and will flush the Jim Jones Purple Koolaid shooters down the toilet.
https://ashwinonlineblog.files.wordpress.com/2013/01/light-ray-dark-sky-rf.jpg
Never mind cement was used some 4,000 years ago! Oh my, can’t use it because it labels one a supporter of BAU! Silly man with a mind of a twit. Now, that is nothing personal, Fast Eddy, Never mind Scott Nearing never faced our situation now as it is and moved to and area of the country regarded as undeveloped. Again you are misrepresenting and a tabloid rant The College of Hard Knocks will educate you very quickly. Again, you will told it is nothing personal, just “business”.
You should move to your tribal idols and adopt their ways. Instead you stock up on BAU…
what a nut case….Boy, can only imagine what Mrs Eddy is like…
A day in the life of Fast Eddy…know wonder he acts like a nut
Most humans now don’t even know how to start a fire, garden or hunt, let alone the knowledge and tools it would take to make a usable form of concrete post BAU.
Like how Fast Eddy places the blame on Mrs Eddy for his stocking up…See….its all her FAULT….
It’s nobody’s fault…. if it makes someone feel better then why not do it…. but I am under no illusions….
And I have waited this long for the end of days to come to not want to experience the full moment — I want to be able to hang around for as long as possible (before meeting the rock cut) so I can rubber neck the train wreck aftermath…. hate to be limited by what’s in the cupboard….
At the end of the day — I recognize I am a dead man walking… just that I might walk a little further than most…
https://seraphinetumbridge1405064.files.wordpress.com/2015/09/keep-walking.jpg
But it’s much cuter to say Mrs Eddy made me do it!
After all you are a modern day Scott Nearing and must live up to the title bestowed upon you. Scott was disgusted what happened to his quiet, serene Vermont valley.
He was of the mind to simply gather their belongings on what they could carry and just move on down the road and see where it would take them.
That was too much for Mrs Nearing and she insisted on a more secure move to a new location. Yep, blame it all on the Mrs!
So funny, Fast Eddy being hen pecked.
He was disgusted?
Obviously he did not understand that farming = food surpluses = population growth = expansion to new territory = his valley being overrun by human rats…
He should be disgusted with farmers. They are the root cause of everything bad that he and we are experiencing.
The more I think about Scott Nearing the more I conclude that he was a total fool.
He blunders from one idiocy to the next… first believing that communism could deliver utopia then farming …
It does seem that once he turned 40 he recognized the folly of his ways — and embraced BAU.
It reminds me of Into the Wild — sadly that kid died just when he realized what he was doing was senseless…. if he really wanted to walk the walk he should have used his cash to buy a one way ticket to the amazon…
You mock those who live the closest thing to sustainable living — the remote primitive tribes…
And you worship Scott Nearing — a farmer — a destroyer.
If you want to point to one profession that has put us in this position you should point your finger at the likes of Scott Nearing and those that came before him who farmed and produced the huge amounts of food that have made 7.3 billion people.
Of course you will not — you would I suppose blame the likes of Jamie Dimon and the bankers.
Like I said — someone needs to drive the hordes from DelusiSTAN back — otherwise the only sane place left in the world (FW) would be lost to people like you.
There are many parallels between FW and Atlas Shrugged… don’t ya think?
Totally untrue, Scott Nearing was not a destroyer and wish to point out you are I’ll informed regarding hunter gathering/ farming anthropology historical context.
Seems Fast Eddy has a pretext to act like he is an expert while he is just a novice.
That makes him even more endearing to us all here
Humans began to change the way they live when hunter gatherers fell for farmers, new DNA research has suggested.
A genomic analysis of eleven Stone-Age human remains from Scandinavia revealed that expanding Stone-age farmers assimilated local hunter-gatherers into their community, but that the traffic was one way.
The discovery sheds new light on the transition between a hunting-gathering lifestyle and a farming lifestyle, which has been debated for a century
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2612671/How-farmers-took-world-Hunter-gatherers-fell-agricultural-rivals-new-DNA-study-finds.html
Fast Eddy, Scott Nearing did not keep domestic animals, hunt or fish or for that matter even killed cut worms in his gardens. He would rather toss them somewhere, maybe in a neighbor’s yard.
Do you think if I made a branding iron and heated it on a fire and imprinted the phrase on your buttocks:
‘Farmers destroy the world because they grow surpluses of food which has enabled a population explosion’
That you would get it?
Probably not eh….
that’d be one big branding iron Eddy
better to print OIL KILLS PLANETS on petrol pumps (as on ciggie packs)
the effect would still be nil I’m afraid
Wrong again, Fast Eddy, Scott and Helen did NOT farm, but were gardeners in a very small plot surrounded by the stone wall they erected themselves. In Vermont the produced maple syrup as a cash crop, in Maine blueberries! See how foolish you are, please stop.
‘Their goal was to grow their own food’ otherwise known as farming… the most destructive activity that man has ever engaged in….
Everything that everyone on this site complains about — from Facebook to corrupt bankers to overpopulation — has as their genesis — farming.
Farming is the root of all evil. You are worshiping the devil Vince.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Czr3iJBY4z0
I wonder if you can see a sliver of light from down in your hole — or if it is pitch black…
Would you like me to toss you a flashlight?
No Eddy, they did NOT farm….they had gardens…that is a quote and you are clearly wrong (again). Please admit your error. Sorry to enlighten you, but you hardly know it all.
I find it a neurotic trait of yours to insist you are right in every topic….
Clearly, they did not have a farm….a farm is an income producing enterprise.
As I pointed out, in Vermont they had sugar maple sap and in Maine blueberries….from a small orchard. No farming at all….end of subject…next…..
Oh I see – they weren’t farmers at all — they were just playing in the garden growing food like a hobby….
Farming was apparently too grim an existence… the grinding poverty must have been too much for them..
They had to make MONEY …. because they knew that money makes the world go around … the world go around…
So like everyone else who has no desire to live the grinding existence of a farmer…. they had a business…. selling books about their ‘sustainable’ lifestyle… as pretend farmers who lived the good life only because their books would have been for sale in the Malls…
Attacking BAU even when BAU was providing them with all the good things in life…
Let’s take a peak:
Q: In his book, Your Engineered House, Rex Roberts extols the benefits of aluminum sheet roofing . .. but also warns that thermal expansion and contraction may loosen the material’s fastenings and cause leaks. Have you had any experience with aluminum sheet, and if so, how did you solve the problem Roberts mentions?
A: We used corrugated, galvanized iron for the roofs of our Vermont buildings while we could still get it. Today, that material has been replaced by double crimp sheet aluminum, which we use on our present home in Maine. In one of our barn/garages — where we had aluminum atop a single-board roof — the wind and frost did tend to pull the roofing nails loose. In buildings with a double-board roof under the aluminum, however, we’ve had no trouble with either loose fastenings or leaks.
So the Nearings were very similar to me and Mrs Fast! We also are ‘gardeners’ even though we have a small farm ….
The farm is not a source of income — heaven forbid we had to live off the proceeds from what we produce on the farm – god no!
We are also depended on BAU — we make MUNNY from business just like Scott and Helen.
The main difference as I see it — is that we have not written any books on what we are doing.
You really should have stuck with the ‘farmer’ theme — now you have well and truly dug yourself into a hole all the way to China ….. I trust you can see where you have gone completely wrong with this latest line of ‘reasoning’
But Fast Eddy, you are flat out wrong again and are ill qualified to judge anyone as far that topic is concerned. Just because you yourself visited a number of locales that you deem sustainable, hardly makes you are expert, know it all. Actually, the Nearings never claimed to be outside of BAU, if you bothered to read their writings. They clearly stated they preferred to have little to do with the present economy as much as possible.
Of course, they used money, shopped or traded for items, As I pointed out many times they did not use electricity until advanced age, urged on by loved ones caring about them. They also built and used numerous outhouses. As far as car, planes and such, Dr. Nearing was a speaker in demand and they would conduct speaking tours during the off winter months and visit friends and associates, some in Florida. Hardly, what I call a vacation.
To clear up your confusion, please allow me to mail you some books to enlighten you in this matter. Namely, Dr. Nearings, “The Making of a Radical”, a must read to educate you on the subject of the era. Just provide your email address and I will post you a PM message.
That would be better than to clog up this comment forum here back and forth.
It is obvious you are confused and more than willing to help. Thank you
Philosophical ideas
Scott Nearing c. 1983.
During his 1919 trial for allegedly obstructing American military recruitment during World War I, at which he testified in his own defense, the prosecution asked Nearing whether he was a “pacifist socialist.” Nearing’s reply was illuminating; he replied that he was a “pacifist” and left it at that. Prosecutor Earl B. Barnes was taken aback and asked for clarification:
Q: You are a pacifist even to class struggles?
[Nearing]: I am a pacifist in that I believe that no man has a right to do violence to any other man.
Q: Even in the class struggle?
[Nearing]: Under no circumstances.[57]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scott_Nearing
Essentially he is a complete idiot. I really do mean that.
He appears to be unaware of the fact that he lived a good life because he lived in the country that stands at the top of the heap…. the US pillaged the world of resources making it possible for him to live in security with good health care… malls… and all the other wonderful things he enjoyed over his 100 years.
To put it more sharply…. let’s say I was on a pension … and my son was a small time gangster.busting knees to collect debts.. and he tossed me a couple of thousand dollars each month so that I could live in a decent apartment and afford to buy enough food and visit a doctor….
I would be no different than Nearing. I could claim to be a pacifist….but that would be a bit much when I derive a big chunk of income from violence.
Nothing new with Nearing — Koombayists are all the same — they drink their low fat lattes and prance about the sunday markets…. they toss a few coins into the Oxfam box at checkout….
And feel so bloody good about themselves…. They fail to recognize that their way of life is guaranteed by dropping mega tonnes of bombs on anyone who dares to question the right of we in the west to live large — at the expense of everyone else.
Enough of Scott Nearing the failed communist who accomplished nothing of any significance (who gives a shit that he lived a simple live — so what — billions of people around the world live FAR simpler lives than him — a lot of them don’t get enough to eat) …. this is my philosophy :
– The luckiest, fittest, smartest, with the capability for ruthlessness survive – always have – always will
– Resources are finite and therefore ownership is a zero sum game
– The strong always take from the weak – if they do not then that is a sign of weakness and a competitor will take from the weak and will usurp the formerly strong dropping them into weakling status
– Humans tend to group by clan or on a broader basis by nationality (strength in numbers bonded by culture) and they compete with others for resources
– Competition always exist (I want it all!) but it becomes fiercer when resources are not sufficient to support competing clans or nations
– Tribal societies understand these dynamics because they cannot go to the grocery store for their food – so they are intimately aware of the daily battle to feed themselves and the competition for scare land and resources
– Modern affluent societies do not recognize this dynamic because for them resources are not scarce – they have more than enough.
– One of the main reasons that resources are not scarce in affluent societies is because they won the battle of the fittest (I would argue that luck is the precursor to all other advantages – affluent societies did not get that way because they started out smarter — rather they were lucky – and they parlayed that luck into advances in technology… including better war machines)
– As we have observed throughout history the strong always trample the weak. Always. History has always been a battle to take more in the zero sum game. The goal is to take all if possible (if you end up in the gutter eating grass the response has been – better you than me – because I know you’d do the same to me)
– And history demonstrates that the weak – given the opportunity – would turn the tables on the strong in a heartbeat. If they could they would beat the strong into submission and leave them bleeding in the streets and starving. As we see empire after empire after empire gets overthrown and a new power takes over. Was the US happy to share with Russia and vice versa? What about France and England? Nope. They wanted it all.
– Many of us (including me) in the cushy western world appear not to understand what a villager in Somalia does – that our cushy lives are only possible because our leaders have recognized that the world is not a fair place — Koobaya Syndrome has no place in this world — Koombaya will get you a bullet in the back — or a one way trip to the slum.
– Religious movements have attempted to change the course of human nature — telling us to share and get along — they have failed 100% – as expected. By rights we should be living in communes — Jesus was a communist was he not? We all know that this would never work. Because we want more. We want it all.
– But in spite of our hypocrisy, we still have this mythical belief that mankind is capable of good – that we make mistakes along the way (a few genocides here, a few there… in order to steal the resources of an entire content so we can live the lives we live) — ultimately we believe we are flawed but decent. We are not. Absolutely not.
– But our leaders — who see through this matrix of bullshit — realize that our cushy lives are based on us getting as much of the zero sum game as possible. That if they gave in to this wishy washy Koombaya BS we would all be living like Somalians.
– Of course they cannot tell us what I am explaining here — that we must act ruthlessly because if we don’t someone else will — and that will be the end of our cushy lives. Because we are ‘moral’ — we believe we are decent – that if we could all get along and share and sing Koombaya the world would be wonderful. We do not accept their evil premises.
– So they must lie to us. They must use propaganda to get us onside when they commit their acts of ruthlessness.
– They cannot say: we are going to invade Iraq to ensure their oil is available so as to keep BAU operating (BAU which is our platform for global domination). The masses would rise against that making things difficult for the PTB who are only trying their best to ensure the hypocrites have their cushy lives and 3 buck gas (and of course so that the PTB continue to be able to afford their caviar and champagne) …. Because they know if the hypocrites had to pay more or took at lifestyle hit – they’d be seriously pissed off (and nobody wants to be a Somalian)
– Which raises the question — are we fools for attacking the PTB when they attempt to throw out Putin and put in a stooge who will be willing to screw the Russian people so that we can continue to live large? When we know full well that Putin would do the same to us — and if not him someone more ruthless would come along and we’d be Somalians.
– Should we be protesting and making it more difficult for our leaders to make sure we get to continue to lead our cushy lives? Or should we be following the example of the Spartans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZeYVIWz99I
– In a nutshell are our interests as part of the western culture not completely in line with those of our leaders – i.e. if they fail we fail – if they succeed we succeed.
– Lee Kuan Yew is famous for saying ‘yes I will eat very well but if I do so will you’ Why bite the hand that whips the weak to make sure you eat well…. If you bite it too hard it cannot whip the weak — making you the weak — meaning you get to feel the whip….
– Nation… clan … individual…. The zero sum game plays out amongst nations first … but as resources become more scarce the battle comes closer to home with clans battling for what remains…. Eventually it is brother against brother ….
– As the PTB run out of outsiders to whip and rob…. They turn on their own…. As we are seeing they have no problem with destroying the middle class because it means more for them… and when the weak rise against them they have no problem at all deploying the violent tactics that they have used against the weak across the world who have attempted to resist them
– Eventually of course they will turn against each other…. Henry Kissinger and Maddy Albright bashing each other over the head with hammers fighting over a can of spam – how precious!
If the spent fuel ponds in your crash scenario go as planned, what are you storing in a container that could possibly help you.?
or…. 5 guys with guns will show up…tie you up….and empty your container for you.
Potentially dangerous things. Didn’t the Taliban stuff their enemies in containers and leave them locked up in the full sun?
Now that’s an idea!!!
When the women and children show up looking for food – I will have already moved all the stuff from the container into the house — but I will leave a few scraps inside the container — then when I direct them in I will just lock the door…
So much better than shooting them!
Well this way you save yourself some food for later. Probably leave some extra fattening, cheap bait in there too. 😉
I should buy a smoker….
The garage was bursting at the seams and Mrs Fast demanded that I do something about it.
Rats were getting into the party supplies as well…. can’t have that…
I am considering ordering a couple of hundred of them and building the Great Container Wall around our property ….
The thing is…
They can be easily stacked — so if you surround your house with 3 high stacks you can create what is effectively a castle…. with 25 foot walls!
A small force could easily defend such a kingdom by simply shooting dead anyone who approached…
I wonder if this is one of the ingenious ideas that Chris Martenson details for those who pay the money.
Imagine what the neighbours would think if I actually did that!!!
Fast Eddy, this article will probably get your seal of approval including the embedded Twilight Zone episode. 🙂
“Grasshopper Nation: Planning For Those Who Aren’t Prepared”
http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/98674/grasshopper-nation-planning-those-who-arent-prepared
Don’t tell me — at the end Martenson will sell me the secret to surviving the End of BAU.
He is a clown — I recall being thrown off the site for exposing that a guest promoting thorium had not disclosed that he had a financial interest in same.
I also posted comments regarding how thorium was not a viable technology – those were removed I suppose because the podcast was a paid ad for thorium.
Oh and the coup de grace from a Martenson flunky who was trotted out to attempt to calm me was ‘how do you know thorium is not another shale oil miracle’
I then pulled out my 12 gauge and blasted away at anything that moved.
Chris Martenson is the lowest of low life — used car salespeople and pimps look down on him — a guy who makes money off of desperation and fear.
Perhaps he missed his calling as a priest.
Do you like Mark Toner? – The epitome of Truth, Justice and the………
Never heard of him
RIGHT!!!
If you do not know the US spokesperson, how can you spout forth in ignorance of world affairs?
If I were to listen to ‘the use spokesperson’ I would most DEFINITELY be operating from a position of absolute ignorance of world affairs…
Actually not.. if I based my views on ‘the spokesperson’ I’d be operating in a matrix… a deception… a total lie…
Quotation Time!
‘If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you read the newspaper, you’re mis-informed.’ Mark Twain….
Nope, Adam wrote the article. It’s worth the read regarding who to share your prepper stash with when the SHTF and society breaks down and the Twilight Zone episode was epic. No selling throughout the article.
Hey, It is sooo apparent that these guys know it
Tiny Oil Kingdom Brunei Moves To Diversify From Oil
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tiny-Oil-Kingdom-Brunei-Moves-To-Diversify-From-Oil.html
“To date, Brunei is the fourth-largest producer of crude oil in Asia, pumping 126,000 barrels daily in 2014, with around 90 percent of budget revenues coming from the energy industry. Oil revenues also contribute as much as 60 percent to GDP. With the price of crude on international markets slumping to below US$30 by this January, Brunei has found it increasingly difficult to cope with this dependency.
After decades of low or no taxes, free education and subsidized housing, the locals – the majority of whom are employed by the public sector – will find it equally difficult to adjust to a new era of cheap oil. To avoid angering them, the government has been slow to introduce public spending cuts necessitated by the new oil price environment and the recession that has held Brunei in its grips since 2013”
now read this
“Unfortunately for the kingdom, its oil reserves are nearing depletion. Offshore drilling in the country’s waters is economically unviable for the state. So, for Brunei, a diversification away from oil is even more urgent than for Saudi Arabia or Russia. Since complete independence of the energy industry is impossible, Brunei has turned its eyes to China.”
….”Surrounded by what it deems enemies in the South China Sea, Beijing has reached out to Brunei, offering it production-sharing options for the South China Sea plus other economic incentives in exchange for Brunei’s support for its claims. With few alternative options, Brunei has accepted”
This “transition” should prove interesting…betcha it will be far from what we all expect…as usual the case.
Brunei sounds like a microcosm of the problems other oil exporters are encountering. China bailing them out will only work as long as China can keep itself going without collapsing.
Chris Rock said it best – “nobody is going to do anything about global warming unti a baby spontaneously combusts.” That’s just the way things work with humans.
So a baby bursts into flames.
I’ll tell you what we’d do. We’d gasp in awe — and then we’d go back into our SUVs and head to the Mall to shop…. we’d turn up the AC a notch if we felt too hot… or the central heating if we felt to cold… we’d turn on the electric coal powered lights when it gets dark — we’d load up onto jetliners and fly to Vegas for the weekend …
We’d do all the things we did before the baby was incinerated.
Because if we stop civilization ends — and we starve and eat radiation.
Chris Rock’s version is certainly more amusing than mine.
But he has no idea what he is talking about
Good grief, it’s a joke!
unfortunately a child dying from malnutrition through the high price of corn, while suv’s fill up on biofuel, isn’t a joke.
Dear Norman Pagett;
What is really funny about 19 inches of rain in Texas – a 500 year flood. They got two of them already this spring. HA ha ha ha . Two 500 year floods within 3 months in the heart of AGW denial. Wooohooo ha ha ha.
don’t see the connection between the comments
Dear Norman Pagett;
Yes, it is a joke, just a special type – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_comedy
I laughed my ass off when I saw Fort McMurry on fire, when 19 inches of rain fell in Texas, etc.. And it just gets funnier.
Yours in Hilarity,
Pintada
See also shadenfreude …. Vindication is great fun.
Spontaneous combustion in adults is a well documented although rare phenomenon and has not, so far, been linked to global warming. Potential causes include alcoholism combined with lighting up a cigarette, ball lightning, and being doused with white phosphorus. When the latter occurs, almost always in a Third-World country that’s been targeted for liberation, regime change or terrorist eradication, we tend to act much as fast Eddy described. What would be the point of changing our daily routines on account people we’ve never even met being incinerated?
“Growth” in this world is not an energy/resource phenomenon. It is a currency phenomenon.
This is why the statistics don’t really matter, and why governments and banks will always get around them. All you have to do is create more currency, and everything measured in that currency experiences growth.
Alright, simple example, since most people here, and who frequent the collapse blogosphere, are simple thinkers (this is a blessing and a curse, and I am one as well). If you have 5 apples, and you sell them for a dollar each, that is $5 worth of transactions. And say next year, you only sell 4 apples. That is a decline, right? Deflationary depression? Money velocity crashing? Wrong. If the currency is printed, and each apple now sells for $2 dollars, now you have $8 worth of transactions!
Voila. You sold less apples than you did last year, but the “growth” shows up in the inflated cost of each apple, and therefore in the total transactions as measured in dollars.
Ok, so now apply the same concept to the entirety of the global economy. Now you can clearly see that it doesn’t matter anymore if there is less energy, less people, less resources, less transactions. The growth still shows up in the currency measurement. We long ago passed the reality principle. The world has entered into fantasy, into the world of images, appearances, and the manipulation of media, currency and language. It’s why somebody can go to a dead end job every single day, with no escape at all, and he can come home, watch some movies or play video games, and all of a sudden he is a space hero flying to planets and saving the galaxy, or a rogue who gets to bang a hot chick before dumping her and moving on to the next one, etc. etc.
Think on it, that’s all I ask. Don’t dismiss it. Remember, you guys have been wrong for years, and you are wrong now. Every single day, month, year, you keep saying “here it comes, now it all comes down!” and it never does. And my job here is to remind you guys why it doesn’t.
Yep.
To better understand this …
Most people in the west can afford to buy a Happy Meal at McSucks….
Now imagine if the cost of a Happy Meal increased from say 10 bucks to 100 bucks. And the real income of the average person dropped by 10%.
McSucks would cease to exist.
I wouldn’t discount dolph’s post that fast, because it is true the Fed and other CB’s around the world are throwing helicopter money at this untenable situation. You’d be surprised how people just accept money. They have an idea of what it’s worth and don’t know what the guy behind the curtain is doing – he’s doling out super cheap loans, in effect created new money, to give to rich folk and business people to jack things up.
Here’s an example of what is taking place. In college they had a casino night followed by an auction for different stuff. A friend of mine played like he was one of the bankers, put a ton of money in a box, walked out of that faux bank and handed it to me. I waited for the auction then looked down at this ton of money I had. I mean it was enough to buy everything at the auction, but it was a bunch of dumb stuff, so I just ended up taking the box back to the bank. But the point is those other people at the auction had no idea ‘how’ I got all that dough, they just would have known by the standard of what everybody else was bidding, I had a lot. See what I’m saying? It’s not about anything now except the illusion currency has value that is catapulting BAU into the future. But it doesn’t matter because it’s jacking things up. It’s increasing GDP in the way it is counted. The money I had from that bank would have raised the GDP of that auction a lot, right? Well, how does that differ from some rich guy getting essentially free money from the bank, buying a piece of art, then turning around and auctioning it off a few years later to some other guy who got free money from the bank. It’s a top down game right now. The super wealthy are juicing the system via CB money and this is happening around the world.
People aren’t smart enough to ask themselves where the money came from and what it’s true value is – they just know some cat has it and wants to buy this thing at this price. They only have their own perception of money’s value based on how hard it’s been for them to save money, which for most is really hard. It’s all about perception and right now that’s the game. Juice the system with more money and watch perception of ‘the average no savings work his or her ass off to barely get ahread’ move BAU along. Meanwhile the super wealthy are laughing their asses off.
Doomers haven’t been wrong for the reason that you’ve listed.
“You sold less apples than you did last year, but the “growth” shows up in the inflated cost of each apple, and therefore in the total transactions as measured in dollars.”
Some industries have survived demand destruction by catering to a wealthy niche, but the health of niche industries are not indicative of the health of the economy as a whole , especially if consumers are cutting back on other forms of consumption or are pirating content in order to keep being able to pay for other things.
For the people contributing to these commentaries on this website on the internet, using computers, smartphones, or other such devices, with homes to sit in now or return to after making use of free Wi-Fi at the library or café, perhaps driving cars, it may be argued that collapse would appear to have not happened yet. Perhaps it can be argued that… Collapseniks… were wrong and should hang their heads in shame. Until, that is, we remember such places as Syria, Greece, Libya, Iraq, Egypt, Italy, and the list goes on. Recognising also that even in the USA, people who had nice houses are now sleeping in cars or tents. Years go by on zero or negative interest rates with people wondering if even the rather weak growth figures are truly representative of various nations’ economic health. Storms are already more intense. Wildfires are starting earlier, lasting longer, burning hotter, spreading further. Storm surges are larger and more damaging. Sure, in the comfortable developed world we still have food in the supermarkets for now, but can it really be said that all is well and we have no need to be concerned about Collapse?
I don’t agree with you, although in a way you are sort of close. The problem is a debt problem. Instead of creating currency, you need to talk about creating debt.
Creating more debt starts a whole cycle of spending. With more debt, consumerism, businesses, and governments can afford more large objects–houses,cars, factories, trucks, schools, wars, you name it. As a result of all of this creation of goods using commodities, the price of commodities rises. This encourages more investment in the production of commodities. Thus, the debt starts an economic growth pump. As long as the pump that involves debt, wages, and investment is working OK (workers can afford the output of the system), this approach works. But once the rate of return on this debt drops too low, or there is too much debt in total, the whole system fails.
Economic growth is counted in physical goods, generally. Thus, selling apples for more dollars doesn’t really create growth. But you are right–inflation is helpful in some respects. It does help repay debt with interest, since interest rates were set based on expected inflation rates, not actual inflation rates.
As I point out in this post, a decrease in commodity prices can be disastrous, because those higher prices were going to pay real people. When oil costs more, it means that more people are really benefitting from the high price. Cutting this price back creates hardship. The value that oil provides to the economy doesn’t really change much over time, except as (for example) vehicles become more efficient. The high price, to cover higher production costs, tends to have adverse effects on the rest of the economy. The price, instead of staying up with the high cost of production, tends to fall back. (This even occurs if there is more “money.” The velocity of that money falls.)
the Swiss—of all people, have a reputation for being level headed
But they are considering paying everyone E2500 to everyone whether they work or not
do they know something we don’t….or have they collectively fallen off their chairlift?
Dear dolph911;
What Gail said, plus if there are only 4 apples sold to 4 people, and a fifth someone needed that fifth one to survive, it doesn’t matter what the price is, or what the GDP is 20% of your population just died. Yup, no crash. You are absolutely right!
Yours in Delusion,
Pintada
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2015/09/20150916_obo.jpg
http://goo.gl/UgBkJ5
“The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades” 😛
That is a fantastic find!
For those that haven’t seen the Brexit film on YouTube, check it out!, it will blow you away!, I hope the uk get the hell out!.http://youtu.be/UTMxfAkxfQ0
Very informative.
The video interview is interesting…. the boost to commodities of 1 trillion+ USD debt stimulus out of China in Q1 has ran it’s course… and commodities demand is headed south …
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-03/commodities-stand-on-brink-of-bull-market-after-oil-s-recovery
End of video–trend in iron ore, similar commodity prices is down.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3wqErF9Rct8
Common P., that’s the YouTube video that includes information about mantle methane. I don’t support everything she says, but it is informative.
Thanks, Stilgar. I’ll enjoy listening to this. In recent weeks we’ve been hearing about the increased occurrence of earthquakes and volcanoes, never mind everything else, and I suspect this is related.
I don’t have to time watch 2 hours of something that while no doubt interesting … is inevitable.
I am however always fascinated when climate change ranters a) tell us we need to stop burning fossil fuels without giving us any viable alternatives (no EVs and solar panels/windmills are not viable alternatives) and b) take to the internet to pass along their message of despair…
This is just one of many data centres that host youtube videos
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/10/17/article-2219188-158D033F000005DC-527_964x508.jpg
Google has 12 data centers all over the planet, 6 of which in North America. Recent estimations predict that Google has more than 900,000 servers in all its data centers around the world. Google’s data centers use around 260 million watts of power which accounts to 0.01% of global energy.
Maybe everyone – included climate change ranters — refused to make and watch youtube videos… that would be a start…
Ever notice how climate change ranters arrive at meetings to discuss climate change? Do they walk? Do they take the bus? Do they ride share? Do they take bicycles? Nah…. that’s inconvenient….
“climate change ranters”
I hope you don’t take me for one of those. If Mother Earth is going to despatch me soon, I would like to know, thank you very much. So for that I am grateful to Mr Beckwith. I will always take the red pill, you see, wherever possible. It is quite obvious that Mr Beckwith has never studied renewable issues deeply enough. But as you well know, not everybody has joined up all the dots. I don’t blame Mr Beckwith for that. He is an expert in climatology, nothing else. I didn’t know much before I read OFW and similar blogs. If Mr Beckwith believes (albeit wrongly) that he can make a difference, then you can’t blame him for trying. In telling me just how VERY rapidly we might go down due to current climate change, he is indeed telling me something new. So do give him some credit, please.
I will reiterate:
Civilization requires that we burn increasing amounts of fossil fuels – if we don’t we collapse.
There are no alternative energy sources that can replace fossil fuels.
If ranters would just accept that there is no other way then they’d not be frustrated.
They’d realize their position is akin to standing in front of a 100ft tsunami and screaming – stop!
When you really think about it this climate change thing is ridiculous.
Of course we could stop it dead in its tracks by simply stopping burning fossil fuels.
Let’s say Fast Eddy was a magic man… with the wave of my wand all coal, oil, and gas production stopped now.
The skies would clear. We’d be breathing clean air within a week or so.
Then we’d all starve.
Do you want really want me to wave my wand?
I thought not….
“I will reiterate”
Yes, yes, yes, I know all that. I have read your daily rants. You are preaching to the converted. Read my comments about “the horns of a dilemma”. I’m well aware we can’t have it both ways. But if the Earth is going down the swanny pronto, then I would like to know, even though I can do nothing about it. I just like to stay informed, that’s all – to take the red pill.
After all, we were all ignorant once. Now tell me, I read a comment of your in Gail’s last post, which started “Hallelujah!” In my experience, this is only used by Christian evangelists. Did you start out as one? I certainly don’t believe you are one now, of course. I watched your video on C-a-t-h-o-l-i-c-s incidentally, which was pretty soon deleted, but it really hit the nail and was so well acted. Best piece of satire I’ve seen in ages.
“I will reiterate:”
And additionally, do please read what I wrote, instead of what you thought/assumed I wrote. I am a doomer pure and simple – not proud of it, not ashamed of it. There are no solutions, I know. The good times are over. I wish it were otherwise, but so does everybody else (almost). If you don’t like Mr Beckwith’s insights about the climate, don’t watch his videos. Perhaps it’s the idea that your de-ath may come a lot sooner than you thought that is really upsetting you – not any false ideas about me being a purveyor of greenery, which I’m not.
“Of course we could stop it dead in its tracks by simply stopping burning fossil fuels.”
Uhh no. See CO2 lag and global dimming. We are already way, way past the point of no return. That said, I also understand the economic side of this. If we stop burning fossil fuels we will die even faster due to energy/resource scarcity and global dimming. If we terminate industrial society we die in a matter of weeks while leaving a cesspool of radiation and terminal warming that will eradicate most life on the planet. If we choose to “drill baby drill” then we instead choose to try and forgo starvation for a couple more years. Either way, this ends in starvation in the not too distant future and likely extinction of most species on Earth.
Somehow, the earth has gotten through a lot of bottlenecks before. I expect it will again, with some group of remaining species, plus some new ones that evolve over time.
I agree. Humans probably won’t be one of them if even the most conservative of climate science predictions comes true. Heck, there are several things that are threatening extinction for our species.
Dear Fast Eddie;
FE said, “If ranters would just accept that there is no other way then they’d not be frustrated. They’d realize their position is akin to standing in front of a 100ft tsunami and screaming – stop!
…
Of course we could stop it dead in its tracks by simply stopping burning fossil fuels.”
You might look at your own behavior here buddy. I’ve been reading Ms Tverberg for some time now, and it appears to me that you spend upwards of 3-4 hours per day – maybe more – doing your own ranting. You posted nearly as often while ostensibly in Europe enjoying life. You certainly spend more time here than our host does.
Looking for Life in Other Places,
Pintada
Someone’s gotta keep the crew from DelusiSTAN from overrunning the castle….
And actually … I probably average less than an hour on here each day… over my morning coffee for the most part…
“and I suspect this is related”
Yeah, as the pressure from above releases the plates start moving.
The last time atmospheric CO2 was at 400 parts per million was during the ancient Pliocene Era, three to five million years ago, and humans didn’t exist.
– Global average temperatures were 3 to 4 degrees C warmer than today (5.4 to 7.2 degrees F).
– Polar temperatures were as much as 10 degrees C warmer than today (18 degrees F).
– The Arctic was ice free.
– Sea level was between five and 40 meters higher (16 to 130 feet) than today.
– Coral reefs suffered mass die-offs.
“The extreme speed at which carbon dioxide concentrations are increasing is unprecedented. An increase of 10 parts per million might have needed 1,000 years or more to come to pass during ancient climate change events. Now the planet is poised to reach the 1,000 ppm level in only 100 years if emissions trajectories remain at their present leve
It’s grim. I hold out no hope. I have no children but my sister has a daughter, who turned 17 last month. What hope for the next generation?
Don’t worry about climate change — if it is caused by man burning fossil fuels then you need to be resigned to the fact that nothing can be done to stop or even slow it.
Economic growth demands that we burn coal and oil and gas — and more each year than the last.
And the good thing is that the economy will collapse due to the end of cheap to produce oil long before climate change roasts us alive.
And there is nothing we can do about that either.
This public service message presented by Fast Eddy is brought to you by:
“And the good thing is that the economy will collapse due to the end of cheap to produce oil long before climate change roasts us alive.”
You are presenting this as a certainty. We can only deal in probabilities and possibilities on this blog. Beckwith and Shakhtova present us with the possibility that climate change may take us first. And climate change is NOW. Just in these recent days, there was intense lightning activity across Europe, and in France and in Germany, people were KILLED by it on the same day. Climate change is now, and it means more storms, floods, lightning, earthquakes and volcano eruptions. Now, what if you got back from the shops tomorrow only to find that your wife had been done to a turn by a lightning strike? So, you never know. You cannot predict the future, as your statement above claims to. Climate change could even suffocate us, as Stilgar points out. And beware the methane gigaburp!
I don’t discount that …. but I don’t lose sleep over it.
I don’t have any regrets about talking 9 long haul flights in the last 7 months.
As the saying goes… end of days is baked into the cake… pick your poison.
The only logical option is enjoy what’s left of the dying beast’s carcass…
That lightening event was weird, cp, and just adds to the other weird & extreme weather events taking place. In that video link on GW I posted, she talks about a possible shift in the weather around the world in which storms are 10-20 times as powerful. That’s evidently happened in the past – we are spoiled by a period of Earth’s history with relatively weak storms. But something like that lightening is indicative in my opinion of the strange kind’s of things that can happen as more and more energy gets trapped in our atmosphere.
I also think it’s premature to suggest the economy will collapse before any really bad stuff happens via changing weather. I think this GW bit is a lot further along than many understand. I keep my finger on the pulse of what is happening in the arctic as a bellweather for what will then happen to the rest of the planet, and fact is we just don’t know when a tipping point will be reached. I don’t know the timing of any events, economic or climate, but am always looking to the latest information because these are interesting times to be alive.
I hope it doesn’t come to this, but here’s a weird one; if we push it too far the oceans become anoxic and the fumes kill life on land. It starts with acidifying the oceans with CO2 but then the algae blooms in the ocean feeding off of all that carbon die due to exhausting the water’s ability to hold oxygen, sink to the bottom, get compressed by geologic forces to heat the matter into FF. Then some smart ass comes along in 4 million years and discovers the energy in FF and presto magic off to the races, then some geologist discovers our layer in the sediment and brings that information to light as to what happened. But he’s vilified by TPTB and it still happens the same way again. Rinse, repeat. Maybe it’s the most exciting periodic time period, the oil age, but rare in the big scheme of geologic time.
“if we push it too far the oceans become anoxic and the fumes kill life on land.”
I had a strange dream in February 2015. I was sitting outside, in summer, writing. Then out of the sky came some thick dirty stuff, a roiling mass, best described as the fluff out of a vacuum cleaner, but masses of it. Not only that, it seemed as if it was alivei i.e. biological. In my dream, I somehow knew it would kill me, but I woke up at that point. Some dreams seem significant and intrigue me. I used to be cynical about that sort of thing, but as I’ve got older I’ve realised there is a mystical side to life, and I have had the occasional precognitive dream. Whether that was one, well, I suppose I’ll never know.
“then some geologist discovers our layer in the sediment and brings that information to light as to what happened.”
I enjoy reading the speculations about a pre-flood, pre-ancient technological civilisation. Just how did the ancient Egyptians build the pyramids? We still don’t have all the answers. And salt sediment has been found half way up some of them, suggesting they have been underwater at some point in their history.
Interesting dream, cp and thanks for sharing. My wife gets the occasional pre-cog dream as well. I had a precog once and what happened in the dream exactly matched what happened the following evening. I was blown away. So who knows what that dream meant exactly – but good to be aware of what it may symbolize.
Salt sediment half way up? Wow, that sounds like one that should definitely be investigated. I have my DVR set up to record NOVA, which is very good at dissecting a mystery.
What gypsies call ‘strong dreams.’ Never tell one -according to them – without taking some food first. Never speak lightly of them.
” What gypsies call ‘strong dreams.’ ”
Yes, a big dream. I never take them lightly. I actually had a medical checkup, heart tested and everything, as a result of that dream. Nothing wrong with me, so I decided the dream was not personal but transpersonal.
“I had a precog once and what happened in the dream exactly matched what happened the following evening.”
In my case, I had to wait between 29 and 32 years – can’t quite work out the time frame. But yes, it is STUNNING. I didn’t tell anybody for years, because it shouldn’t have happened and I didn’t understand it. I didn’t have a category to put it in so couldn’t file it away neatly in my mind. Come 2012, I thought back over my life and such experiences, of which there were about a dozen, and consciously developed a category of “things that shouldn’t have happened”.
The pyramid / salt sediment – I read about that in Graham Hancock’s “Fingerprints of the gods”, in which he looks at the worldwide myths of a great flood and examined anomalies around the world, such as the ancient (pre-ancient, he would say) structures that include stones weighing 200 tons – these just shouldn’t have been possible. A marvellous read – I can well recommend it.
You should try astral projection if you think lucid dreaming is wild. 😉
The eternal recurrence as Nietzche once stated: “Life wasn’t that bad, may I have the same one more time, please”
Dear jeremy890Jeremey;
jeremy890Jeremey said, “The last time atmospheric CO2 was at 400 parts per million was during the ancient Pliocene Era, three to five million years ago, …”
Nope, it was 11 million years ago during the mid-miocene, and conditions were much worse than you listed. Nice try though.
Just playin’,
Pintada
Dear jeremy890Jeremey;
Why oh why am I so slow? I should have signed the above –
“Yours in snark,”
Ah well. Life goes on, for now.
According to this video, there are plenty more hydrocarbons down there in the mantle.
Does this mean all we have to do is find a way of getting them to market cheaply and we’re saved?
Yes Tim,
We could fart as much as we want,
as long as we keep a window wide open.
Unfortunately we don’t.
We can’t.
Our problem is entropy, not lack of hydrocarbons. Cheap helps a lot. So does not having to use too much debt to get them out. Getting rid of pollution problems (including CO2) would be a big help as well.
Trump adviser mentions waterboarding Clinton
http://www.kcra.com/politics/trump-adviser-mentions-waterboarding-clinton/39885050
(CNN) —A top adviser to Donald Trump believes there’s nothing anyone can do to get Hillary Clinton to tell the truth about her emails. Not even torture.
No comment. 🙂
…And what doe that have to do with Our Finite World and the depletion of resources? 🙂
Well, that clown may well become president, and then he will preside over their depletion. 🙁
“Well, that clown may well become president, and then he will preside over their depletion.”
Ahhh….. gotcha ! :-O
You are aware that civilization has as its ultimate foundation the use of finite resources…. that if we were to stop depleting these resources we would collapse into a very primitive state.
Hopefully Trump will support policies of ongoing resource depletion.
“Hopefully Trump will support policies of ongoing resource depletion.”
Two points:
1] If climate change takes us down as rapidly as Mr Beckwith thinks it might (or Natalia Shakhtova and her methane “gigaburps”) he may not get the chance.
2] If he proves to be such a clown in office as he appears to be, then how competent would he be at all? My guess is, he could be about as competent as Chavez – and look where Venezuela is now.
How quaint – you actually think the president of the USA is not a puppet who’s strings are not pulled by the owners of the private company that prints unlimited amounts of the reserve currency – otherwise know as the Fed
I expect those businesses who make campaign donations pull just as many (or more) strings.
And their strings are pulled by the guys who own the money supply 🙂
It’s always good to throw a little humour at a grim topic.
Waterboarding Clinton — totally …. awesome! Where do I buy a ticket?
Don’t forget the popcorn!
Dear Fast Eddie;
Can I drink some wine while watching? If so, I’m totally in!!
Grimly Yours,
Pintada
Paul Beckwith, climatologist at the University of Ottawa, in a recent video. I’ve never seen him so agitated before:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_1xUYGn6DxU
The world is undergoing abrupt climate change, he says, and it is a global emergency. So, he seems to have moved a lot closer to Guy McPherson of the NTE (near term extinction) meme. But let’s be honest, those holding a conservative view of climate change have been shown to be plain wrong. So, will we die before we see economic collapse? Or will climate change help precipitate global collapse?
I don’t buy into the Guy McPherson (NTE) meme. I seriously doubt according to Guy McPherson that we’ll all be off this planet by 2030. Each time these guys speak about Co2 levels they keep moving the goalpost. First it was don’t cross 350ppm, then it was 375ppm, then that changed to 400ppm, then it was moved to 450ppm.
The only (NTE) i’ll remotely accept is if a “HOT” thermonuclear war starts and every nation who has an arsenal, launches them.
Rodster is obviously not stating correctly about what “these guys” have stated. First, the 350 ppm measure was given by Dr. James Hansen gave that to Bill McKibben for the the absolute safe limit he thought CO2 level should be, hence 350.org. The IPCC, which is an International group that is based on consensus, settled at 450 ppm.
Regardless, as we have witnessed, none of these “goal posts”, are going to be met with restraint. Humans have burned through at least 3 or 4 centuries of fossil fuel resources in about 150 years. Only economic contraction or depletion will control that trend.
If Beckwith is right, then I hold out no hope. We can’t switch wholesale to renewables – they depend on fossil fuels for their infrastructure. Beckwith wants a techno-fix in the Arctic. If it was tried, most likely it wouldn’t be enough – nature bats last, as Guy McPherson notes. Anyway it would be like turning around an oil tanker. Possible, but when you consider an international committee would be in charge, forget – there’s not a snowball in hell’s chance of success. What we need is a world dictator. Now, let me just check the vacancies page…
@common p.
I agree with you… the techno-fix as proposed by Beckwith is bollocks… companies may want it to make money… but all money making schemes want to have growth… growth needs energy… thus CO2 thus pushing the cycle of things.
The 450ppm are absolutely insane for all I have read… but of course consensus – as we still have “then” some time to continue BAU. And when we reach 450 – then its 500ppm and so on… to continue BAU.
@Rodster
McPhersons “NTE” in 2030 I would take not as serious… but If even 1 or 2 Billion people may perish until then due to starvation and other climate related pressures… the exact definition of NTE won’t matter to them, For them it’s NTE – an the rest of the globe will also feel the pressure – for certain.
Yes, Ert, I agree that there is no hope. I wish there were. Really, the only question is the time scale of this. But it’s either a short-term or a medium-term thing – no later. I expect world population will fall below a billion in the 2030s.
Veggie, Ert – yes, BAU will be attempted to the end. But as somebody said, we do not have a problem (problems are soluble) – we have a dilemma, and we are caught on its horns.
One supposed technofix would involve laser (deployed in the Arctic) – it destroys methane, apparently. I first heard of laser as a boy in the 1960s, while watching a James Bond film. Yes, spies (intelligence agencies) and the military-industrial complex have always been interested in gadgets and esoteric weapons. The Ministry of Defence (UK) was monkeying about with laser weapons, in secret, to test them, in the 1990s. The result? Crop circles! Google it. Source: Jacques Vallee.
I certainly don’t take McPherson seriously. In fact I think he’s a joke tbh. I have listened to enough of Guy McPherson and he comes off as a bitter, pissed off individual. The problem is he’s the “new vocal face of climate change” and he uses Paul Beckwith’s cherry picked data. The problem is that anytime someone makes a prediction and gives out a date for “the event” and nothing happens, it’s like the boy who cried wolf. We were scared not to cross 350ppm of CO2 and we have long pasted that number and life goes on.
@Common
I concur with the 2030-2040 time frame in case this year wasn’t an El-Nino “anomaly”. We will see what arctic ice is left in 2020. If the current trend continues to 2020 then I certainly have no medium term hope anymore.
I’m currently quite depressed, since my value system more and more conflicts with the job I do in the automotive industry. Its insane… and more insane to work on things that may be incorporated in future luxury cars with the timeframe of >>2020 when the shit hits the fan. Still I think that some of the system may be continued – but how will Europe for example thrive and protect their borders from pressure in Africa and Asia? How to import onions and early potatoes from Egypt when its gone under? When I sometimes look where the food is coming from… its scary. Especially all the stuff that is already coming from China!
Currently reading “The story of B” – a real thought provoking read in regard to “civilization”, the ONE dominating culture and what went wrong approx. 10.000 years ago with our totalitarian agriculture.
@rodster
I have listened to enough of Guy McPherson and he comes off as a bitter, pissed off individual
With that i g along. McP remnds me a lot on MCR, but that on was eventuell more bitter. Still if i see whats going on – one shurly can be bitter.
“What’s gong on” – What is going on that should make anyone bitter?
Are you suggesting that we had alternatives that if chosen, would not have lead us to the precipice of extinction?
A few things here that some posters have missed. The CO2 in the atmosphere right now that is rising is a result of human activities from nearly a decade ago due to a lag factor. If you look at the current RATE OF CHANGE, it is going exponential. It used to rise .7 PPM a year, then about 2 PPM a year, it just went up 4.5 PPM this last year and hit a high of 409 PPM in April. If the rate of change doubles again by next year it is absolutely, positively, 100% curtains run away greenhouse gas catastrophe that will kill us in a matter of years due to absolute habitat destruction. Like, we’re going to die in a few years, 2030 is total wishful thinking.
There is also something called self-reinforcing feedback loops that are very real and they are releasing enormous amounts of methane from tundra and the Arctic regions. Most of this gas being released, which is around 80 times as strong as CO2 in terms of warming, is so catastrophically large it is going to have incomprehensible effects on the environment. Evolution lags this current rate of climate change by a factor of 10,000.
Lastly, and even if you ignore or don’t comprehend everything I just posted, there is something happening right now that is absolutely horrifying called global dimming. There is a particulate shield around the planet from fossil fuel exhaust that is blocking the sun’s energy. When, not if, the global economy collapses that shield will come down and the planet will warm by several degrees in a matter of weeks. Massive crop failure and drought will be a severe understatement when that happens. It will quite possibly cause us to go extinct all on its own, and it will push current warming trends to something unimaginable.
I suspect we are well past the point of no return.
We definitely are. My anecdotal evidence from yesterday was we broke the record high by 2 degrees and were 30 degrees above average. Today we break the heat record again by 3 degrees. Tomorrow by 4 degrees. Tuesday we tie the record. I got my tomatoes under shade cloth but they’re likely going to drop some flowers over this.
When one looks at what is happening in the Arctic in terms of temperature spikes… one could imagine a very near-term climate catastrophe….
We have the makings of a battle royale…. climate change vs financial collapse…
I read today that one place in Russia, north of the Arctic hit 80 degrees today. That’s a full 40 degrees above average. It’s all over but the crying at this point. I’ve noticed the media is NOT reporting on any of the crazy things I’m seeing lately.
Very little in the MSM on this … I was unaware of what you just posted… that is incredible….
No doubt CNBs will be spinning this as an opportunity pumping Arctic beach front property REITs….
Warming world, melting Arctic: business as usual
Warming world, melting Arctic: business as usual
Rising temperatures are having a dramatic effect on global weather and sea ice. So why is there so little news coverage?
Last week the Danish Meteorological Institute announced that ice cover across the Arctic Ocean was at its lowest April extent since records began 38 years ago.
Since then the US Nation Snow and Ice Data Center confirmed that May’s ice extent is also the lowest ever recorded.
It is not just over the Arctic Ocean that weather records are being broken. The warm weather has been apparent across much of the landmass within the Arctic Circle. The Barrow Observatory in Alaska, latitude 71.3 degrees north, just 3km from the shores of the Arctic Ocean, became snow-free on May 13. This is the earliest snow-free date in 74 years of record-keeping.
Similar snow and ice melts are taking place across Canada and Russia, causing disruption to road transport as ice routes have melted.
On Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago between Norway and the North Pole, it is a similar story.
The weather station at Svalbard Airport, 4km from Longyearbyen, has reported above-average temperatures for every month for more than one year. Not just marginally above average either; the most extreme example is February this year, when the average was -5.6C compared with a long-term average of -16.2C.
The massive wildfire, which threatened the Canadian city of Fort McMurray, is still burning across swathes of Alberta and Saskatchewan. There is every possibility that soot from this – and other wildfires across Siberia – could coat the sea ice in black soot. This would reduce its ability to reflect sunlight (albedo), thereby accelerating the rate of melting.
Warming is not confined to the Arctic, of course. Global temperatures are on the rise, and have been for decades, but it is the rate of change that is alarming.
2014 was the warmest year since 1880; 2015 was warmer; now 2016 has been so warm in the first four months that climate scientists are almost certain it will get even warmer, no matter what happens during the rest of the year.
Put simply, extremes are becoming the norm, and they therefore attract less media attention.
Climate change was high on the political agenda at the end of last year as world leaders reached an agreement in Paris to peg future global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels.
Many climate forecast centres predict warming of as much as 3.7C by 2100. As French President Francois Hollande pointed out at the time, a target of 1.5C is the “absolute ceiling” for global temperature rise.
The warning signs of impending disaster are there as every month brings another “worst ever”. How long before voices are raised to make sure the politicians carry out their commitments, and that those measures agreed are actually bringing about the desired result?
More http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/warming-world-melting-arctic-business-usual-160523095230532.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/05/warming-world-melting-arctic-business-usual-160523095230532.html
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/06/06/extent-of-ocean-surface-above-86-degrees-f-hits-new-high-during-may-of-2016/
@Tango Oscar
Massive crop failure and drought will be a severe understatement when that happens.
Massive crop failure, maybe, but why drought? The increases in temperature and pan evaporation rates ought to speed up the water cycle significantly.
There will be massive crop failure – partly because the pumps that irrigate will be without electricity…
But the bigger problem is that the soils of the world’s farms are dead and will grow nothing once the petrochemical fertilizers are not available.
There will be massive crop failure – partly because the pumps that irrigate will be without electricity…
But the bigger problem is that the soils of the world’s farms are dead and will grow nothing once the petrochemical fertilizers are not available.
True FE, but these reasons for crop failure are not consequences of the disappearance of global dimming. I was merely pointing out that the loss of global dimming ought to lead to increased rainfall on average. I don’t know how tolerant crops are to large increases in temperature so I can’t comment on this.
The effects of the loss of cheap energy on civilisation are much more predictable than the effects of climate change.
What we need is a world dictator.
What would that person do that would change the outcome that is imminent?
I think you are suffering from schizophrenia … you want to agree with me but you continue to post comments indicating that if only ____ things could be different.
There is only one path
lots of nutcases have applied for that job Eddy
always ends in tears
@Yorchican, I couldn’t reply to your comment above; limitations of WordPress I suppose. Drought could be directly exacerbated through climate change, as in drier conditions become drier and speed up evaporation of surface water. Crops will require more water as well with hotter conditions. Also there are all of the secondary ways. For example, look at Lake Mead, which supplies water into Phoenix. Phoenix is having record temperatures and will use more water for pools or other forms of entertainment as well as drinking to combat heat fatigue. Lake Mead is at a record low by the way. This whole situation gets worse in larger populated areas like California or India.
Famine however will be the real killer. Big crop failures will occur with giant heatwaves. Higher temperatures also bring about thriving conditions for certain pests. The wood beetles here in Oregon have been endemic lately with warmer temps. These pests eat softwood trees like Douglas Fir and Pine as if they are candy, ruining acres upon acres of them This has profound implications for the ecosystem as well as industry. A lot of these processes set off unforeseen chains of reactions, similar to the self-reinforcing feedback loops of climate change.
“I seriously doubt according to Guy McPherson that we’ll all be off this planet by 2030.”
Certainly not all of us. However, things are very serious. I live in London and had to open my bedroom windows at night until December 15th. And England is supposedly a cold country. That is because the Arctic was slightly above freezing – was it 0.1 or 0.2°C ?
Anyway, there is now this thing called “the methane veil” spreading across the northern hemisphere. Yes, the methane is seeping out. It already below some craters (around a kilometre in diameter) in Siberia in 2014 – an entirely new phenomenon in modern times. The Russian scientists know the risks:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-n1WqnBjIO5o/VKyxOT-5oHI/AAAAAAAAPh4/0RQ1HFKmw4Q/s1600/Shakhova.jpg
So, with the Arctic reaching above freezing, what next? –
“If we lose the ice caps, civilization starves and the world’s coastal cities drown. It’s really as simple, and complex, as that. Already, CO2 levels are at an historic high.”
Throughout geological history, “Every time we have hit high CO2, we’ve lost the ice caps,” Peter Ward, professor, Dept. of Earth & Space Sciences, University of Washington, Our Future in a World without Ice Caps, 2013 lecture series.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/02/abrupt-climate-change-is-here/
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/2014/09/state-of-extreme-emergency.html
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.uk/p/the-mechanism.html
I meant to write:
“Methane already blew some craters (around a kilometre in diameter) in Siberia in 2014.”
Meanwhile, China and India put another million new vehicles per year on the road.
China builds a factory in Brazil to pump 100,000 new cars into the system.
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2015-07/06/content_21186884.htm
Try convincing the Automotive industry lobby to kill the main source of energy for this transportation overshoot. Human self interest and profit motive will ensure that each lobbyist will continue to influence (bribe?) government policy makers until they choke on their last methane filled breath.
Sad, but this is Easter Island on a planetary scale.
@Veggie
I work in the automotive Industry.. and believe me… the development track is bigger, brighter, more electronics, more displays, more SUV, more models, more everything.
Some people see whats coming. But how to escape BAU? If you don’t make it – some Chinese manufacturer will make it. And people will buy it as long as BAU continues – with no regard to whats happening around them! The issue can only be solved on the level of the society – as even no ‘well meaning’ politician will survive the shitstorm when for example the private ownership of automobiles may be constricted.
Everyone who wants to know knows!
My Proof: The Volkswagen Stiftung (‘Charity’) for example even financed Meadows LtG study! and here is an interview at the Volkswagen Stiftung in Hannover, near the corporate headquarter of VW in 2012: https://www.volkswagenstiftung.de/en/media-center.html?tx_itaomediacenter_itaomediacenter%5bvideo%5d=25&tx_itaomediacenter_itaomediacenter%5baction%5d=show&tx_itaomediacenter_itaomediacenter%5bcontroller%5d=MediaData&cHash=7da1721eea42511b8fd7b5931d19dacd
Its kinda bleak….. and Meadows held back…
The Oil Lobby and the Automotive lobby make up over 50% of the money spent on lobbying in the USA. Try to turn that around by producing a few YouTube videos about climate change. 🙁
“Anyway, there is now this thing called “the methane veil” spreading across the northern hemisphere.”
Yes, common p, I found out about the methane veil from a video on GW. She said it had covered the arctic and was moving south across the planet at 1 kilometer a day. Doesn’t sound like much to some I’m sure but that’s a kilometer a day across the entire circumference which is 25,000 miles is a lot. We also don’t know if that rate of veil envelopment will speed up. Maybe in a few years it will be moving south at 3 or 5 kilometers a day. In any case, one has to wonder what will happen when it has covered the entire planet. Probably just get thicker from there and really heat things up.
I think people do not get what is going on. It would be one thing if the melting of the tundra and release of methane from the Arctic sea basin were accelerating at a very tiny rate, but it’s actually occurring at a very fast pace with the potential to rise exponentially at some threshold. In other words it’s a fools game to be playing out this experiment of finding out what happens when we pump billions of tons of carbon into the atmosphere. Wadhams said that in a previous extinction event in earth’s history the co2 level rose 100 ppm in 10,000 years. We are at a pace to do that in 30 years, although I think the right multiplier is more like 40 at current co2 ppm added each year. But even if it’s 40 years, then we’ll be over 500 ppm. Even at 400 ppm the weather has not caught up to that level yet because heat/energy is still being pumped into the vast oceans that fuel the weather.
There’s also another risk you may have heard about: mantle methane. From Greenland to the other side of the arctic ocean is where two techtonic plates converge. In one location there is a place where mantle methane is already releasing – it had been held in ck. since the Permian extinction. If that cap completely disappears and methane from the mantle begins escaping on a massive scale then we’re toast just from that. It’s an incredible amount of methane. Since the ice is melting there is less pressure holding those plates and in recent years there has been a big increase in earthquakes along that fault line.
But even as a positive feedback, if that mantle methane gets off slowly it will move along everything else happening in the arctic and again we have a situation where the momentum cannot be stopped. We can’t suddenly all agree there is GW and then maybe do something on a bigger scale to slow CO2 emissions and hope the momentum stops – no, there is a 30-40 year momentum there. We won’t know the true extent of our past emissions until 2050 but even when the CO2 level was at 400 in a previous point in earth’s history the sea level was 23 feet higher, let alone what will happen with all the emissions still rising up. Yet, TPTB have given us all a CO2 emission allowance of numerous billions of tons more to spew into the atmosphere. That’s like a fat kid with type 2 diabetes giving himself an allowance to eat tons more chocolate. Or a 3 pack a day smoker adding another pack a day to 4 a day, because there is no sign of cancer or emphazima.
CO2 almost hit 410 PPM in April, I don’t think it will take 40 years to go up another 90 PPM.
Dear Rodster;
Rodster said, “First it was don’t cross 350ppm, then it was 375ppm, then that changed to 400ppm, then it was moved to 450ppm.”
Correct, as far as your understanding went. Soon they will say don’t reach 1000ppm. The problem is that it is very likely that we were toast at 350. Humanity is certainly done at 409. The people saying, “Oh, if only we would do ______x___ so that we don’t reach 1000.” are just as far behind the learning curve as the people that deny the existence of the phenomenon completely.
Yours in Doom,
Pintada
I have looked into him IMHO he is a nut and a member of the free stuff army AKA commie.
He says things like Canada is using way to much co2 per person but wants to bring more people in because we must be fair.
As Fast has said What is the answer that wont crash the world
i thought he looked/sounded a bit odd too
Who – Beckwith or McPherson? Anyway, you shouldn’t judge a book by its cover. Who among us has film star looks? Listen to what they say. They talk a lot of sense. Look back over the rate of climate change in just a few short years. Trouble is, we get used to this level of change, and most of the time it’s affecting somebody else.
Beckwith admitted he was tired when he made one of the videos, but he felt it was something he had to do. Admittedly he looked and sounded emotional, but who wouldn’t? He’s tired and frustrated of politicians and most other people refusing to listen or take notice. All totally understandable if he’s feeling the pressure.
Take notice of what? Listen to what?
“Take notice of what? Listen to what?”
Take notice of what (some of) the scientific community has been warning for long enough about the use of fossil fuels, and how they contribute to global warming. But we know why politicians don’t listen. It’s all about money and jobs, and green energy is not sustainable in a financial or economic sense anyway.
Oh I am quite certain that they can hear you.
What is it you would like them to do?
“Oh I am quite certain that they can hear you. What is it you would like them to do?”
You’re barking up the wrong tree, making wrong assumptions about me. I am not the one asking people to adopt “renewables”. I am interested in how quickly climate change is going and how much quicker than expected I may meet my end. A pretty reasonable and logical desire, don’t you think? I do live on this planet, after all. I have no axe to grind, no solutions to offer, because there are none. Anyway, read my response to your other comment below.
Whooaaaa there cowboy!
You just said the politicians are not listening…. And I responded they are most definitely listening — how could they not — the MSM is filled with climate change articles….
You appear to be frustrated – and your comments imply that if only the politicians would listen they would/could do something.
If you agree with me — that there is nothing that can be done — then why bother howling into the hurricane until your tonsils fall out?
Why rip our hair out by the roots in frustration and despair?
What is the point?
Perhaps you might channel the rage into poetry …. or a song… not one of anger rather one of acceptance… one of resignation …
Then you could go out shopping and do your part to keep civilization a few years longer.
“You just said the politicians are not listening…. And I responded they are most definitely listening — how could they not — the MSM is filled with climate change articles…. You appear to be frustrated – and your comments imply that if only the politicians would listen they would/could do something.”
You are being terribly obtuse today. *I* am not frustrated about politicians. I stopped voting in 2010. I was explaining to you why I think Mr Beckwith is frustrated with politicians.
“If you agree with me — that there is nothing that can be done — then why bother howling into the hurricane until your tonsils fall out?”
I am not. 🙂
“Why rip our hair out by the roots in frustration and despair?”
I am not. I am very proud that I have a lot more hair left than many a 30-something.
“What is the point? Perhaps you might channel the rage into poetry …. or a song… not one of anger rather one of acceptance… one of resignation …”
I am resigned. Didn’t you read all I wrote? You are especially obtuse today.
“Then you could go out shopping and do your part to keep civilization a few years longer.”
As you pointed out, I use the internet. I burn more than my share. 🙂 I’m no longer interested in shopping. After you hit 47, your desire to shop goes down, as any economist will tell you. And I’ll be 60 next year.
What Mr Beckwith is telling us, is that we could go down very quickly due to climate change. Now that is directly relevant to this blog, because we have assumed that economic collapse is staring us in the face. Mr Beckwith’s message is that climate change could take us all down – in one burp, so to speak. Now, I put it to you, that you are enjoying the party, and you are desperate with rage that I have suggested the party (YOUR party) could be stopped in short order by climate change. I’m getting old, I’ve done all I want to. My only sadness would be for the young and those who haven’t. After all, I have CCTV installed in your home, I know you have a relatively young and attractive wife, and well, you know, you want to live a bit more. 😉 I don’t share Mr Beckwith’s frustration with politicians. I am not enraged – I am very calm. As it happens, I quite enjoy a bit of dis-aster p-or-n – especially if it involves my very own home, plant Earth. If you don’t like climate being talked about, then just pipe down, butt out, and ignore it – and me. But I repeat, it is VERY relevant to this blog, if climate change takes us – and you – out before depletion or financial collapse gets a chance to. You are tearing your hair out in rage at that very idea, as you long to prolong the party. Let me just say that I wish you the very best of luck with that – no irony meant at all. May BAU continue as long as you wish it to. But remember: climate change may put a stop to that, whatever you, I, your wife, or Mr Beckwith think or want. We are all at the mercy of fate. When Guy McPherson says “Nature bats last”, he is right, whatever you may think of his other views. And Mr Greer knows that no civilisation lasts forever. I wish it did, for my young niece’s sake. And yes, for yours too. So let’s party on – but remember you must die. And if the climate wants to take you, there’s not a damn thing you can do about it. But I wish you a long and happy life – even if though it is not in my gift.
Can you explain then what you mean when you say that ‘if only they would listen’
So let’s say they did listen to you and the guy in the video …. what would you expect them to do?
I have film star looks.
so did gomez addams
I look nothing like that, lol.
“I have film star looks.”
I’ve seen ALL your films. Zero. 🙂
Absolutely true! And judging by the people who frequent Hollywood, I couldn’t be happier with that outcome. 🙂
The video is almost devoid of facts. The concerns mentioned are not shared by Engineers responsible for building design. CIBSE have recently issued updated guidance for the UK :
http://www.cibse.org/weatherdata
That suggests IMHO that in the not too distant future most UK buildings will need some form of mechanical cooling to function during hot summers. I seem to recall reading that Texas is habitable only as long as the cooling systems work, and I expect there are many places like that. That’s probably somewhat overstated, but it puts things in context.
We can cope with quite a lot of climate change as long as the electricy supply keeps coming.
Humans can survive warmer temperatures as long as they are not old, young, or weak. That is not the problem. The issue is that our food sources and habitat CANNOT sustain rapidly warming temperatures. You can guess what happens next.
If the wet bulb temperature (think of it as temperature + humidity – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wet-bulb_temperature) is 35C any large animal exposed without AC will die within about 30 minutes. The north-west of India had some 34C wet bulb temps this spring. Coastal areas around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman will reach 35C soon – this summer(?)
True. But we have shelter available in many areas. It’s cooler underground, for example. Warmer temperatures during heat waves would absolutely kill large numbers of people but that probably won’t be something ongoing. Just a wave of 135 here or 140 there.
Dear common phenomenon;
Thanks for the post, and thanks for having a clue.
Regarding the point by FE that – guess what – there is no solution. He is absolutely correct, since the price of oil has not crashed civilization quickly enough, AGW will cause the complete extinction of humanity. I used to imagine that Gail’s thesis might save some largish mammals (if not humanity, then perhaps a large rodent or something), nope, just wishful thinking. McPherson said that the absolute end might be AS EARLY AS 2030. If humanity sees 2100 it will be totally surprising.
My favorite post on the subject:
http://witsendnj.blogspot.com/2014/09/five-stages-of-awareness-or-is-it-six.html
I am at stage 6 today and have not reverted to stage 4 in several years.
Sincerely,
Pintada
Very useful indeed…. let’s slap this up and try to help people move past their frustration into one where they understand the only useful activism involves shopping and running up debt…
https://s3.amazonaws.com/idme-wordpress-military/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/01173638/shutterstock_209263234.jpg
Five Stages of Awareness?
I don’t know if I have met anyone who is not, at some level, in a state of denial, including the guy I see in the mirror. Call it an essential human ‘coping mechanism’
Reflecting on my own “evolution” (without any implication that I am ‘improving’ or ‘progressing’ forward), I am now of the impression that many of us follow these stages, or get stuck in one of them.
Stage one: Ignorance. We don’t know enough to realize that this civilization is headed toward an imminent collapse, taking a lot of non-human species down with it.
Stage two: Knowledge: We know enough to realize that this civilization is headed toward an imminent collapse etc.
Stage three: Activism: We know enough to realize that this civilization is headed toward an imminent collapse…etc. But we don’t know enough to realize that we can’t stop it, so we invest our time in blogging, preaching, demonstrating, rallying, and marching.
Stage four. Resignation and Commiseration: We know enough to realize that this civilization is headed toward an imminent collapse etc., and finally realize that activism (blogging, preachin’, demonstrating, rallying, and marching will not make a significant difference. We either call it a day and drop out, or we write endlessly about how we’re “f***ked, and spend years “trading turds” (as Kurt Dahl termed it) on list serves— until we get mad or frustrated and demand to be taken off the list.
Stage five. Displacement Behaviour or a Sense of Moral Obligation: Despite knowing that we are “f**ked, we persist with our activism, blogging, preachin’ , rallying, and marching because:
http://witsendnj.blogspot.co.nz/2014/09/five-stages-of-awareness-or-is-it-six.html
Did he happen to mention if Queenstown can expect big early snowfalls?
I am eagerly awaiting the opening of the ski hills….
http://alcoholthinkagain.com.au/Portals/0/Images/ata/teaser-responsible-service.jpg
The only thing that can tank Europe is peak alcohol. No it will never happen. Alcohol is the antidote for everything.
Gorby demanded a dry Soviet Union and collapsed it. Stalin commanded alcohol for everybody and took half of Europe. Case closed.
And a good cigar: the smoke obscures the view while you daydream…..
I must pick up smoking as soon as my liver says go !
“Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar To Record 94.7 Million, Surge By 664,000 In One Month”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/americans-not-labor-force-soar-record-947-million-surge-664000-one-month
And yet the BLS and the US Gubmint are trying to feed the American Sheeple that the employment rate is at an all time low at 4.7%
A person wonders whether the numbers published in previous months were really correct.
http://mileswelch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/bigstock-Under-pressure-19432976-750×429.jpg
To understand this, real numbers are needed. Those only appear when catastrophe is inevitable, and a scapegoat is to hand:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/structure-collapse-2016-2019
“Since real reform would threaten those at the top of the wealth/power pyramid, fake reforms and fake economic data become the order of the day.”
Unfortunately events on the scale of WWIII may not be sufficient to get the system away from the path to a bad equilibrium. Before that, the extent of the problem has to be revealed and understood by everyone.
Problem really isn’t fixable, whether understood or not.
Finally, Germany starts to cap the expansion of its renewables, especially wind. Not mentioned in that link is that Poland, Czech and others are just finalizing costly installation of large transformers on their respective borders, which are going to block incoming energy spikes generated by crazy Germans, which are destabilizing grid all over the region.. lolz
http://www.germanenergyblog.de/?p=19941
So, Angela will have it all, refugees + blackout, hah
Angela Merkel has a science degree in Physics, from what I read. That is why she supported the attempt to lower CO2 emissions and the World Climate Conferences to address global warming. Unfortunately for her and us, damned if we do and damned if we don’t as far solutions. As we laid out here so many times nothing, other than collapse will solve it. Gail has assured us it is already “baked in the cake” with her gentle manner.
So, I am not too hard on Ms. Merkel, or for that manner all the rest. We are dealt the hand of cards and have to play them as best we can.
Merkel would know that Germany has some of the most expensive electricity in the world due to their idiotic attempt to shift to alternative energy … now they have a lot of intermittent sources of electricity but they also have to continue to operate the power plants that provide electricity using good old reliable Mr Fossil Fuels.
Dumb dumb dumb….
All done by auction? I’m surprised that auction wasn’t the standard method already. Oh Wait … Gov’t get advised by the industry .. all becomes clear.
Except, that is for the mention of transformers and power spikes and stability? These do not seem to be mentioned in the linked article?
The coming global demographic/GDP per capita crater around ~2025-2030 does look as the firm stop for further can kicking exercises, however if you study the curves and kinks a bit more in detail, also the very late 2010s – early 2020s could bring about the flush as well..
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2016/05/add-it-upand-it-doesnt-add-up.html
http://econimica.blogspot.com/2016/05/the-mother-of-all-head-shoulder.html
..
Great insight, and I see he’s still on a work-in-progress – this from his latest:
“And the changing nature of US net new job creation vs. US new home creation (below). A 2.5 to 1 ratio has inverted since ’00 with more houses being created than full time jobs to support them.”
http://econimica.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/china-is-biggest-shortever.html
It’s hard to keep up with all this stuff …
You do need new households with adequate income to support new housing. Adding housing is a big generator of jobs (building, appliances, decoration, heating/cooling).
“You do need new households with adequate income to support new housing. ” If that is the case, then why do profitable (expensive) housing continue to be built around the world? (other than to keep commodity prices high enough for continued extraction?)
Why do luxury condos and expensive houses continue to be constructed in the United States and why do they soon become inhabited after their construction?
There has not been any serious deflation in housing prices in major metropolitan areas. In fact, housing prices have increased steadily since the early 1980s.
I don’t think that steadily increasing housing prices above government calculated inflation rates be explained by population growth alone or “cheap credit”, for gdp points, or even demand (more high wage earners desiring to live in one area).
In other words, why hasn’t deflation affected real estate in major urban areas?
Huge volumes of overseas cash is flowing into key urban centres around the world propping up prices
I don’t entirely know the answer, but I have some thoughts on part of the answer.
There was some US deflation in housing prices in the 2005 to 2009 period. (Would need to check on exact dates.) Also, the number of new homes being built is way down relative to the pre-2008 period in the US. So there is some decline in building. There are still some well-to-do people who would like a new house they can customize. I have run into a number of people who are downsizing from big single family homes to new homes built as 4 plexes, for example. Also, some of the single family homes are being changed from owner-occupied to rental. Eventually, we may have a surplus of big single family homes, but so far, there has not been a big imbalance. The very low interest rates make homes quite affordable. Also, make it possible to rent out homes for low amounts and make a profit.
I expect in China central planning is behind the number of homes built. Some of them may sit unoccupied. I know one place I visited in 2011 along the Yangtze has a lot of 12 or 13 story walk-up buildings. The low floors were occupied, but many apartments on upper stories seemed to be unoccupied–they were less desirable. The planners had planned for too many homes, considering the number of young people who had relocated to the city. Also, in China, many well-to-do people buy homes as investments. This leads to intentional overbuilding.
The low interest rates we have now are a big part of why homes are affordable to so many today. If interest rates were more normal, there would be a lot of people who could not afford housing.
The world cannot support all of the retired people that it hopes to. At the same time, the market for new homes drops way back in a lot of countries.
Actuaries assume that retirement benefits (government programs funded by current taxes) can be adjusted to fit changing economic conditions. Unfortunately, the changes are much bigger than they ever imagined. Supposedly pre funded programs have problems too, with low interest rates.
Tim Morgan’s latest article parallels Gail’s explanations in many ways:
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2016/06/02/72-end-game/
That’s a great summary of the situation as of now by “Dr. Tim”..
With respect to his “Risk 3 – capital flows and the $7 trillion gamble” – he states the outflow of capital from emerging economies back to USD is still just at ~10% mark, i.e. 90% remaining to go. That would be pretty devastating in the end. On a side note the trend of strengthening USD into this stagnation has been predicted for some time by few correctly, e.g. Harry Dent, whom I don’t like/endorse at all, but that’s the way it is.. Remember the finance is about the rich people, in the coming pre-reset they are “all” going to firstly fly into the “safety and protection” of USD and only after that during aftershocks it will go down completely.. unless TPTB frontload it all by some given shock event midnight resolution of completely changing the rules and debt structure..
In terms of Japan, he somewhat agrees with my argument if Japan (total debt) could go as high as 400% GDP and the EU/US is halfish of that figure, there is still a room left for some serious near time horizon can kicking..
You can forgive all the debt but the entropy that has already been “spent” will stay in the system. It will still be hard to transition from fossil fuels or scrap the growth paradigm. The damage wil have a bump and then move on.
Thanks! There are some things I don’t really agree with, but he comes to the same conclusions that I do.
GM sales plunge 18% in May, Ford down 5% – CNBC
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/01/may-us-auto-sales-seen-down-on-2-fewer-selling-days-than-year-ago.html
Further into that Reuters piece it shows car sales (not total vehicle sales) down from 25-39%…
Of course they are blaming this on higher gas prices …. really? Do people say – gas prices are too high — I won’t buy a new car.
Gotta give the sheeple a way out of having to face reality — end all bad news with an excuse
The higher price of gas will reduce disposable income and make consumers reluctant to commit to additional discretionary spending.
The “higher price” and the unknown price ceiling of Obamacare will affect car sales more. In Texas alone, Obamacare insurers are looking at a 60% rate hike, possibly more next year. There are other States that are looking at higher premiums as well. Some families are looking at premiums between 20-30K.
That will have a greater impact on discretionary spending especially car sales.
I have wondered about the potential adverse impact of rising Obamacare premiums. We need to find ways to provide care for a lower price–pay specialists less; don’t spend as much on end of life care; don’t try to rescue as many premature babies.
Yes economic indices have been rigged for many years now. From unemployment rates to GDP to inflation…..they are manipulated. Like you say, must keep the markets ignorant and thriving, the masses then can continue in BAU bliss. For how long though.
“Do people say – gas prices are too high — I won’t buy a new car.”
I think people are saying
“I am not earning enough money to buy a new car…
“…and my credit is so bad, I can’t get another high-interest loan. Even the credit sharks are blacklisting me.”
The common workaround–I like the term “workaround” term that Gail uses. It is more appropriate than the term “solution”— for car companies, was to convince banks to offer loans that can be paid off over a longer period of time. I’ve heard of car loans lasting up until seven years.
Loans have been substituting wage increases for nearly forty years now.
The excuse is right in the title, lmao. Oh, because 2 fewer selling days obviously accounts for an 18% plunge, that is if you don’t understand basic math.
Of course the weather could be to blame — it must have been either too hot or too cold… or too rainy … or could it be that the final of Dancing with Stars was airing … followed by American Idol’s last episode — who in their right mind would miss that just to buy a new car
The weather excuse is my favorite. They must think the average Joe is a total moron, lol.
Apologies if someone already discussed this point…
I am wondering if it would be helpful to distinguish between total and per capita energy growth?
I suspect for the last few decades we have been experiencing growth in total energy and a simultaneous decline in per capita energy.
This might explain why it is taking longer for collapse to occur than many of us predicted, and why incomes are falling and demagogues are rising.
Yes there is quite a bit to discuss along those lines. Questions to ask maybe…what countries and economies…..the BRIC countries were at the forefront of growth. With Brasil, China and India all experiencing some problems, I wonder what their per capita energy use graphs over say the past decade would look.
Good to see you here again Rob.
Do you know if you’ll be posting the last part of the John House article on your blog?
I found it very clear & concise & even printed it off to give to people who I thought might be interested……………..but now can’t find anyone……………
I’m looking for the part 4 section of it.
As much as I often regret the “notify me of new comments” button on OFW because I get overloaded with every comment I do so because this site is full of some excellent commentators.
I live in Australia & we still live in a deluded dream of never ending sunny days & dreams of the old 1/4 acre block for all.
Even this week one of the chief economists (Craig James from Commsec) was on early morning TV having a waking wet dream over the rise in GDP numbers.
The eternal optimist, now Australia’s mining boom is over, is now getting his jollies over the “amazing” tourist numbers, mostly Chinese.
It would certainly appease any nagging worries the average zombie here might have about losing their back yard pool…………………………….It also reinforces the illusion that they can keep buying Ford Everest’s & fat over sized U.S style ute’s (pick ups),
I do my best to not wallow in this cultures depravity & sickness but I’m a nothing, a nobody, a non entity in the big scheme of things.
The indoctrination that holds this now dying culture is deep, very very deep & I really do see where so much of Fast Eddy’s hatred comes from…………………………….
This culture is sick & has no place on this planet………………………………….
New Zealand’s more southerly location relative to Australia should see us fair better where the effects of global warming are concerned, but most people are behaving in ways that suggest that either nobody is aware of the various resource and system issues we have around the world or they do not care. The mainstream commercial news media are in large part to blame, but I think it is also likely to be a matter of not wanting to know because the consequences are too frightening and refusing to believe because collapse scenarios do not fit in with assumptions we have all held on to for as long as anybody can remember. Far easier to say “you can’t tell the future” and carry on as we always have. Promises of flying cars and faster charging smart phones are much easier to digest than warnings of economic and societal collapse. I am concerned about the lack of any plan to keep food coming into Auckland in the absence of sufficient fuel and truck parts, roads submerged by rising seas, people unable to use eftpos cards in retail outlets due to banks collapsing, rent and other basic expenses not being paid due to banks collapsing and jobs being lost, but our leaders speak and plan as though these things could not be further from their minds.
“The mainstream commercial news media are in large part to blame, but I think it is also likely to be a matter of not wanting to know”
What’s the point of knowing if there is nothing that can be done about this – that won’t collapse the global economy
The MSM is doing an excellent job of keeping people in the dark
Hey Curt,
Good to hear from a fellow Kiwi!!
I’m from NZ originally & moved to Oz when I was 20 (I turned 48 this week).
My family all still live there. My parents are in Mt Maunganui & my sister & her husband live in Kati Kati on their own farm growing Hydrangeas for export.
How about that for forward thinking!!??
I was born in Christchurch in the South Island but lived in Auckland (Northcote on the North Shore) for the 12 years before I left for Oz..
When I first became aware of the situation I tried to “warn” my family thinking most people would “get it” but it fell on deaf ears & yes I believe your so very right.
If it conflicts with indoctrinated beliefs or confronts the fragile veneer that stops us tearing each other to pieces in the isles of Coles or Woolworths when the trucks stop rolling in they will do all they can to stop the seepage of reality into their world view no matter how erroneous that world view is.
Look at the current situation in the lead up to the U.S elections for the weirdos that they’re springing on to the world.
From someone outside the U.S, Hillary looks like a sinking boat candidate & Trump looks like…………….I don’t know, a freak??
We have an election coming up here next month.
Labour vs the Liberals……………………2 boring more of the same crap……………….NZ, John Key etc………….the smoke & mirrors are every where & backed up by guns.
I used to be a member of the Greens here until I became totally disillusioned with them. They are the side of the same 2 faced coin the major parties are…………………
No matter how often the MSM say the population is sick of the main parties they always get voted in.
The stale monotony of BAU political parties is better for the isheep than anything that might tell them they are basically fish food on the bow of the RMS Titanic as she sinks into the murky & uncertain depths of death………………………………….
Demogages are proliferating across the political spectrum, with Bernie and Trump being notable examples, because they are promising the sun, the moon, and rainbows over every household to an increasingly desperate group of people who are hard to profile– they can be either blue collar whites or upper middle class educated (Read:valuable workers )people who mysteriously desire more government services even though their credentials are supposed to result in them earning high wages and therefore demand less government services.
How bad are things out there? It’s hard to know because there is a lot of effort being out forth, from people from all walks of life, to maintain the fragile veneer that everything is okay. The common consensus is that we are one reform away from prosperity. It’s bad but it’s not that bad, just a little bit.
Europe seems to be running into similar problems, with increasingly fringe parties getting more power.
Ah, yes, the Green Party. How environmentally responsible can it be for an environmental party to promote sustainable growth? Of course, just like all the rest, they hunger for power and will say whatever they must to achieve it.
I have family in Australia. I hope we are all wrong about the various systems and resources issues, but sadly I expect Australia to be headed for uninhabitability.
“sadly I expect Australia to be headed for uninhabitability”.
It seems NZ & Tasmania won’t be far behind either.
They’ve had bad droughts in NZ & Tassie that dried up the dams (in Tas) so much they had to import power from Victoria’s coal fired power stations via the under water Bass Strait cable.
I sold my property in Tasmania late last year & bought 47 acres on the Western Downs Qld (I prefer the floods) & know how tough things are all around.
These are grim times indeed if your a human that invests his/her emotional well being in the superiority of the species…………………………..
The biggest tragedy from my perspective is that non-human life has had to endure our anthropocentric arrogance & narcissistic behavior for the last 10000 years or so.
I don’t see any place that will be habitable in not too distant future as climate change wipes out agricultural land globally & it’s happening way too fast for agriculture to keep up.
Perhaps some of the folk on this blog are right when they say they’ll just sit back with a bag of popcorn on the front porch & watch it go……………………
There have been an awfully lot of shifts in weather conditions over the years. I was recently in Europe, and saw the many high water marks on buildings, near the rivers.
I sometimes we think that we expect less natural variability than really exists, even apart from any upward trend.
Hi Brendon, part 4 is up.
Humans are very intelligent but we deny inconvenient truths. Its genetic. Canadians are as insane as Australians.
Great, thanks Rob.
Dear Rob, that’s why the ‘per capita’ part will be reduced by a few billion.
2 options; forced de-growth, or managed de-growth. I never won the lottery. Did you?
We keep adding coal consumption, keeping per capita consumption up. Even with coal, consumption may be headed down in 2015-2016, though. This is a graph of world energy consumption:
There are people talking about falling EROEIs. These impact which fuels are most competitive in the world marketplace. Also, prices have fallen below the cost of production–a big problem.
That sums up the state of the global economy better than anything else
i beleive we may have reached the end of the plateau for oil production the next big move will be permanently higher the beginning of triple digit oil prices thats my gut feeling
What do people pay for these triple digit oil prices with? Higher wages? More debt?
Do not think in terms of dollar price of oil. You will get this collapse story wrong.
Think: the international finance/payment system breaks down, and there is nothing set up to replace it.
That’s the real story. The dollar is a fiat country of one country, the United States, a country that appears to be headed towards civil implosion. Yes, it is the world reserve currency, but this status does not and has never lasted forever.
I know, this is really hard to do. But just think…the majority of the world’s population lives outside the United States. The majority of the world’s population makes daily transactions in currencies other than the dollar.
Hard to believe? Remember, once you had no idea of what collapse was. Think outside of the box.
I suggest you get a bigger box. Collapse won’t be orderly and it won’t follow graphs and charts. Those with the most military power will win. Size of country will not matter.
Agree with your assessment. Just have a look at this headline posted on ZH at how anything can trigger an event and this is the same Deutsche Bank who wants to ban cash in the future.
“Deutsche Bank ATMs Block Cash Withdrawal Due To “Technical Glitch”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-03/deutsche-bank-atms-block-cash-withdrawal-due-technical-glitch
This Wipes Out Any Spare Capacity OPEC Has
http://oilandgas-investments.com/2016/oil-prices/this-wipes-out-any-spare-capacity-opec-has/
Does this mean we won’t be tapping into the massive oil reserves deep below the arctic seas? (sarc…)
There is always hope for the methane hydrates!
Yes… we will save them for a rainy day.
All oil companies are now backing out of offshore drilling projects entirely. That tells us that they are indeed unprofitable and if they don’t have the ability to dramatically ramp up shale production then we are likely facing a serious oil shortage in the next year or so, that is if demand stays relatively the same. The way things are looking now with thousands of oil tankers parked at idle in the ocean we may never see the same demand for oil ever again.
Yes, offshore oil production is likely headed downward. In the US, offshore oil production has recently rising, helping to offset the drop in oil from shale.
More on oil prices …
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-energy-permian-idUSKCN0YO0EH
“With crude prices now nearly double their February lows near $26 per barrel, new wells in the Permian Basin – North America’s richest source of shale oil – are again becoming profitable and producers are taking baby steps to crank up output again. The number of rigs in the shale oil basin that spreads across more than 50 counties near the border with New Mexico rose by 17 to 146 on May 31 after bottoming in late April, according to data shared with Reuters by Drillinginfo, a consultancy.”
“The number of drilling permits – a leading indicator of future activity – issued for the Permian region in April, the latest month available, was the highest since October 2015. (Graphic: tmsnrt.rs/1WXhUTb)”
I am not clear as to how they become profitable at $50 when :
Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html
Maybe not profitable but high enough to get loans approved.
To pick up on another theme from LTG:
“The Commons Environmental Audit Committee warns that tracts of polluted soil are a potential health hazard in many towns because the government has stopped grants to decontaminate them.
And agricultural carbon emissions are said to be growing because careless farming allows soil to blow away.
The government said it was protecting soils, but would review the new report.
The committee says soil is a Cinderella subject – little mentioned but vital for food and flood prevention.
Soil also stores carbon in the form of organic matter – but if soil is handled badly, this carbon can escape to the air, contributing to climate change.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-36428361
Hi guys,
It has been close to 2 years since I last post here. Enjoying my life and reading this blog but without posting. However, just to remind some people on some of the themes that people tend to forget or misunderstood. Fast Eddy (a.k.a Paul) is right on all counts but it is just that it is not possible for most of the people to understand. I have also given up on telling other people. You will just get blank stares when you tell them all these (especially the spent fuel ponds).
For the following information,
1. Feel free to check and counter check and tell me if it is wrong.
2. Copy and paste in any future posting when someone talked about solar and wind and how it will maintain our BAU. I am more than happy if this can make them counter on how solar/wind will continue BAU.
MYTH 1: Renewables will save us
SOLAR
=====
Typical solar panel size is 5’x3′. Let us make 5’x5’ as the other 2’ people doing maintenance work. We can line up end to end and side-by-side. The 5′ length will stretch for hundreds of panel. The 3′ will be placed side by side (total 6′) and another 4′ as walkway for maintenance. The typical output is 200W per panel.
So, I assume that that we will have sufficiently strong sunlight for 10 hours a day (very optimistic assumption). That will make 1 solar panel producing 2kWh per day
WIND
====
See the links below. The bigger the rotor, the bigger the power, the higher the complexity and there a greater chances of failure. Let us stick to the smallest. 10m rotor diameter generating 25kW. Let us give extremely generous 20-hour wind availability. So, each turbine will be 500kWh.
POINTS TO NOTE
==============
1. Intermittency is a big problem. The link http://www.wind-power-program.com/powerprofile.htm shows you how intermittent the winds are at “good locations”. Let us not dwell in locations that are not good. Good locations are usually very far away from civilization.
2. At night, solar panel is useless. Furthermore, you need someone to clean the panels as dusts can lower efficiency. Forget about automated clenaing systems. It is too complex to maintain and prone to failure. The best is to get a guy to sweep the panels everyday. With thousands of panels, a small efficiency loss is a big deal.
IRON SMELTING
=============
It takes about 6000kWh (See link below. I take the average number) to melt and make (produce) one (1) metric ton of iron from iron ore. This is not even steel but iron only.
You need 6000/2=3000 solar panels or 6000/500=12 small wind turbines and run for one full day (daylight hours for solar and 20 hours for wind). Spread out for 3000 solar panels (5’x5′), you need 275′ x 275′ land area. This is the power needed to smelt 1 ton of iron (based on theoretical calculation with no efficiency losses)
For commercially viable mini steel mills. It can produce 200,000 tons per year. Due to cost consideration and economies of scale, that is the smallest amount. Anything less than 200k tons per year is economically unfeasible. 200,000/365=55 tons per day. Therefore, we need 55×6000=330,000kWh/day of electricity. That will be 330,000/2=166,500 solar panels. Spread out, you need a square of 600m x 600m of land just to power one small iron mill. I am assuming the size of iron mills are the same as steel mills. This is not steel but iron. Referring to the link below, you need additional processing and energy to get from iron to steel. Some points to note:
1. The land used for solar cannot be used for agriculture.
2. Assume that the land is flat. Levelling the land uses a lot of energy as well
3. How about the inverters, distribution centers?
4. High current (amperage) is required for steel manufacturing. How are you going to “gather” all the current electricity, stored it and put it quickly to the steel mill when they require that blast of current to melt the iron? Capacitors? batteries? Solar power generates small amount of voltages and the current is small. It is mean for charging or “low-power” usage like lighting, computer, fan. It is totally unsuitable for high current types like smelting, stamping, machines, industrial-strength type of use at the factory.
5. Sure, we can put solar panels in the desert, how about transmission lines (especially maintaining them)?
6. This energy usage does NOT include preparing the furnace (it must NOT be cooled down and must be continuously processed 24 hours a day), the pre and post processing of iron (separating iron ore, hammering, shaping). It does not include transportation, the power used for conveyor belts, the computer systems, the lighting, the cafeteria food preparation, etc.
7. How many of the 166,500 panels needs to be replaced daily. Cracked, hit by hail, birds, stones, damaged, short circuit?
8. We can only run the mills during daylight. We cannot use it at night or when it rains or overcast. Cool down the furnace and heat up again the following day? How much extra power is required. Batteries? How soon you need to change them when mills are running 24-hours a day? That means you need to double the solar panels where one half is used to charge up the battery? 600m x 600m land becomes 600m x 1200m land just for one steel mill?
9. Getting someone to clean 166,500 panels is a great challenge.
10. I am assuming 200W and there is no degradation of panels over a period of time.
11. Let us not talk about spare parts for the solar panel, wires/cables, controllers, converters, transformers (to make it high current), etc.
12. Yes, government can force lower-sized mills and other forced nationalized projects but just refer to USSR’s collective farm and factories for the consequences of government control.
** That is just for one small iron mill. There are hundreds of mills worldwide.
The same goes for windfarm. We need 330,000/550=600 small wind turbines just to support one small iron mill.
From http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html , you can see that to make 1kg of electronic grade Si, it takes about 2 MWh. This figure is not verified but I am not surprised as semiconductor is a very power intensive industry. I am also not sure how many solar panels can be made from 1kg of silicon but I guess not many. 2MWh is about 2000/2=1000 panels. You need 1000 panels, working 10 hours a day to provide energy to make 1kg of electronic-grade silicon. That is an irony.
**Will someone say iron mills are not required for modern civilization ….. ??? **
MYTH 2 : Well, I can work from home using internet and I don’t have to travel ……
Datacenter electricity usage in US only (not worldwide) as per http://www.computerworld.com/article/2598562/data-center/data-centers-are-the-new-polluters.html – 91 billion kWh per year in 2013 or 249,315,068 kWh per day. That translate to 124,657,534 solar panels needed (working 10 hours a day) or close to 500,000 small wind turbines (10m rotor) working 20 hours a day. If you put 124,657,534 in a square grid, that will be 16.7km (10miles) each side. Just think of how many replacement parts you need for 124,657,534 5’x3′ panels. You need to think of how you can transmit the power to all the datacenters in USA when the power transmission system in any country is crumbling. How many people you are going to employ to maintain, change the panels, inverters, cables, clean the panels?
Now, how about residential, mega factories and other “modern civilization” critical facilities that requires tons of electricity?
Are we going towards “using solar-powered” machines to combined CO2, water and air to form hydrocarbons that will be used as fuel for planes? We cannot have battery-powered airplanes…..
Sources:
Solar panel sizes and output : http://brightstarsolar.net/2014/02/common-sizes-of-solar-panels/
Wind turbine : http://www.wind-power-program.com/powerprofile.htm
Wind turbine : http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/wind-power4.htm
Energy to make 1kg of material : http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/what-is-the-embodied-energy-of-materials.html
Steel mills : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steel_mill
Can solar power gigantic dredges, excavators or other “civilization-required” machines that are large and requires large amount of energy (ships? Trains?)
Some will point out that Denmark has a lot of windfarms – does the country have a lot of steel mills or any form of critical industry? They import it. If we were to isolate Denmark, will it survive? So, who is going to smelt the steel, produce microchips, food, glass, clothes or even toothbrush for Denmark? They can “go green” because the energy-intensive industries are not there in Denmark.
MYTH 3 : USA/UK/AUSTRALIA (insert your country) will not collapse but others will first and we are safe and secured.
The world today is not the same. We are too globalized with parts being made thousands of miles away. We have lost a lot of knowledge (which plant is good for healing coughs? if you can still find that plant in your area) and we have forgotten how to use the old technology (Morse code anyone?). There is no way we can revert back to old technology. Check out the banks if they can still use the cards (with punched holes) in doing transactions). Do we still have telex machines? We have way too many people not directly involved in “work that is related to human survival – smithy, weaver, farmer, shepharding, animal husbandry, etc). How does a computer progammer, fashion designer, barista or astronauts going to do when they have no work but still need food?
Take a tooth brush and let us use United States (I am from South East Asia) as an example :
1. Are there any factories in US? Yes, only a few and that is far and apart. Anything local? No
2. What are toothbrush made of? Plastics? Where does plastic comes from? Petroleum? If you want to make tooth brush locally, do you have the knowledge on how to do it? Raw materials (maybe bristals from animals, if animal is still available)
3. Let us say US is self-sufficient (with the few factories), what about the machines that they use to make the toothbrush? Are the parts available in US? Just a simple burnt capacitor is enough to cause the computer to fail and the whole production line shutdown. The wear and tear of the gears? Do we have the parts? Maybe they are made in China? Do we have the right capacitor? Where are these capacitors made?
Is tooth brush important ? Yes. A lot of people died (in the olden days) due to infection in the tooth.
If we cannot produce a toothbrush locally, do you think we can produce electric cars, toasters ? (See this very informative link: https://www.ted.com/talks/thomas_thwaites_how_i_built_a_toaster_from_scratch?language=en )
Do we have the capability to feed 300m population (in USA)? How many jobs are directly linked to foreign countries (e.g. Asia sales manager, technicians making parts for Asian customers, banker selling loans to factory owners in China) that will disappear and what are those people going to do (or even eat?)
50 years ago, many things are done locally and anything happening in one part of the world will not affect the other. Now, we are just too linked and with so much outsourcing, all are tied to the hip and when one goes down, all go down. The only place that is safe from all these is some tribe in the middle of Amazon where they are still living primitively. Even the Bushmen of Kalahari are wearing sneakers/shoes that are probably made in China. Will they be able to go barefoot (I doubt so). Do they know how to make shoes from the wood/forest like their forefathers do? I doubt so. Do they know how to hunt without a rifle (if there is still enough game to hunt)? I doubt so?
There are still many myths that needs to be dispelled like “it will be a slow collapse”. No. it will not. We are too interconnected unlike in the past. Our population is too high and we are already in the “overshoot region”.
“The Power To Be” TPTB are in charges and these are all pre-planned – no, TPTB are smart but greedy. If you cannot get your three kids to work together peacefully, do you think you can get a bunch of super rich and high egoistic power-crazy oligarch or TPTB to work together and create a New World Order? History of mankind does not show that to be the case.
Good luck in reading and understanding. Too many people want to take the easier way – just deny and ignore. You can ignore reality but you cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.
Humans are smart, very smart but not intelligent. Intelligent beings do not mortgage their future for present pleasure. (i.e. spent fuel ponds?)
Humans have “normalcy bias” and will only realize it when it is too late.
CTG – please grace us with your comments more often….
Solid analysis. People simply don’t understand the SCALE of the problems here. They would rather engage in delusional, wishful thinking that all of these problems will be solved by someone else. Ignorance is bliss they say. My wife gave me funny looks yesterday when my bulletproof vest arrived. 🙂
That’s an excellent idea! I’m heading to the big town to buy a couple of more cases of ammo this week – will see if they have one of those in my size…
I bought a new hockey helmut recently … I think I’d look pretty flash with the vest at the end of days party
http://mit.zenfs.com/206/2011/12/134154316-copy.jpg
Bulletsafe has a no-nonsense reliable vest for a cheap price. It comes with pockets too if you want to put level 3 plates in, effectively making it a level 4 vest (the sort that SWAT teams use). You can snag a level 2A or 3A bulletproof facemask on Ebay too and they look bitchin’. Like Jason the serial killer awesome. I can’t get one though because I use glasses to shoot. 🙁
I’ll get on that… the perfect set up would be to have the Great Container Wall patrolled by my small team of loyal Darth Vader’s!!!
Two male rottweilers will do the same thing. And you won’t feel as bad about eating them towards the end.
Just thinking… the Great Container wall could be used to store massive amounts of food and ammo….
The castle could also be made of containers — something along these lines
https://renaissanceronin.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/cclofts_utah.jpg
And yes — vicious dogs on patrol would be just the thing! They get to eat what they kill… just like bankers…
I will call the dogs Jamie and Lloyd. Or perhaps Goldman and Sachs….
Finally — there is a ray of hope at the end of the tunnel!
I wonder if the Container Castle could be sealed against radiation poison?
Dogs respond better if the name ends in an “ee” sound. Jamie would be great and then Stanley or Citi would make another good one.
I have no backup plan against radiation. If the nuclear ponds start exploding that’s all she wrote. I think iodine can help with the process if it’s not real bad but it obviously will be. Maybe you could store a bunch of salt with iodine and just walk around snorting it all day. I’m thinking something like Al Pacino in Scarface.
Throw a little blow into that combo … and you got a Doomsday Party Pack….
True. Plus you’ll no longer sleep or get hungry while keeping your energy levels through the roof.
Offer Paris Hilton and some of her female friends a container with a pole fixed in the middle and the End of Days Party hits new heights!
Thanks for your thoughts. There is certainly a lot of normalcy bias, and belief that someone, somewhere will be able to fix the problem. People need something to believe in. Wind and solar panels seem to fill that niche.
Ironically …. worshipers of solar panels and windmills would be the first to mock ancient sun-god worshiping cultures… they are one and the same
Generally, in Britain, if an activity cannot be done wearing a bespoke suit from Savile Row, it is a ‘Cinderella subject’: deaths from pollution; the elderly dying of cold, flood defences, bio-diversity, preservation of a civilised built-environment, abuse of orphans and those in care, farming in general……all swept under the carpet.
Does somebody know, what happend to megacancer.com?
Will be back up in a few days. Thanks for asking.
Glad to hear, I enjoy your site and was afraid “they” took you down… 🙂
Chances are “they” don’t understand and simple group think prevails. The education system is preoccupied with churning out capable RNA to do the work, not in conveying any uncomfortable truths. Civilization has self-organized to maximize energy flow from their limited resources for a short while and then it will all be over. If humans cannot stomach having ancestors of ape-like appearance, they certainly won’t accept their close relationship to a molecule within cells and all that it implies.
So we are saying that in 2016, non-elite workers are pretty poor, and if oil prices increase, oil demand will be reduced by quite a lot. This was not the case a few decades ago when non-elite workers were better off.
Another way of saying this is that the elasticity of oil demand has increased over time.
But when I try to find charts or data showing that oil demand elasticity has increased, I find a few articles actually asserting the opposite – that oil demand elasticity has decreased over time.
Am I misunderstanding something, or maybe there is just issues with the data?
At the turn of the century the price of oil started to take off… from 12 to 35+…… clearly that was already having a huge impact on people’s ability to afford ‘stuff’
According to the OECD Economics Department and the International Monetary Fund Research Department, a sustained $10 per barrel increase in oil prices from $25 to $35 would result in the OECD as a whole losing 0.4% of GDP in the first and second years of higher prices. http://www.iea.org/textbase/npsum/high_oil04sum.pdf
The response to the building deflationary bust up was the housing bubble — the Fed purposely drove that bubble because housing is a big ticket item that can offset the impact of high priced oil. Of course it’s not a long term solution — but ya takes what ya can gets when the end of the world is staring you in the face
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Brent just topped $50 a barrel.
I hope it is a sign of a rebounding global economy. At the same time I fear that the oil price rise is based on propped up (and made up) economic data.
I’d guess the price of crude oil depends on the rate at which China can pump it into (underground) storage 😉
When oil was 30 bucks… growth was stagnant… in spite of massive stimulus… $50 oil is surely not a signal that things have improved … in fact if you look at corporate earnings things are worsening…. I see no improvements anywhere… I see Japan in even more dire straits… Brazil just printed -5.6% GDP…. no improvements in any economy – at best stagnation
Keep in mind when looking at commodity prices… there was a massive surge in prices as China money raced into industries such as rebar — that was related to the announcement of 1 trillion+ dollars of new stimulus and the expectation of more ghost towns…
1 trillion dollars gets us a very short lived sugar buzz these days…. to really move the dial for more than a few months what is needed – literally – is ten trillion — at least….
The hamster is tiring … give the hamster more steroids and a big blast of the meth pipe… he must go faster… always faster…. he must break world records every year….
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$50 oil is terrible news for some of the world’s biggest producers
http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dollar50-oil-is-terrible-news-for-some-of-the-worlds-biggest-producers/ar-BBtM2bZ?ocid=spartandhp
Gail’s articles get reprinted in many online media sources.
That’s not Gail’s article. It’s just another source saying the same thing.
I should have remembered the age old saying, “Look before you leap.” Yes, sounded like, looked like, but was in fact a different article and an interesting one too.
Fantastic economic news from Finland.
The public sector is 60 percent of GDP.
The private sector is 40 percent of GDP.
So… how can the private sector pay for the public sector ?
Well… it can’t.
The ECB just prints the money and we borrow it like there’s no tomorrow… well… there is no tomorrow. So even worry ?
I don’t know whether you are making an economic or a political point, but IF a project run and financed by the public sector makes a profit, it’s still a profit. So GDP at 60 percent public sector could work.
I looked into it. It was actually a bit more complicated than what I first thought.
The private sector produces 80 percent of the GDP and the public sector produces 20 percent.
The government spends 60 percent of the GDP on military, schools, healthcare, pensions and social benefits.
Since the government spends more than what it collects in taxes, profits and dividends it has to borrow money to keep the economy alive by keeping the private sector in business who benefits from the government spending.
I guess this Ponzi can go on for awhile… until the ECB runs out of paper ?
Correct. And even then, they just use digital currency. This shell game will continue until war happens, probably due to shortages.
Are we on the cusp of the perpetual economic motion machine?
Can Finland be the first capitalist country where the public sector is 100% of GDP….
Attention Paul Krugman…. your wish is about to come true!
This is some kind of Social-Capitalism… where social benefits are the only thing keeping the capitalists alive.
We are like Venezuela but it’s working.
Krugman didn’t get the Nobel prize for nothing.
Looking back into late 1970s, interesting stuff presented in official gov lab studies (globally corroborated incl. Germany, Japan, USSR), price per kW installed:
Photovoltaic $10,000
Nuclear $1,000
Rankine $600
Nitinol $400
As of today, Rankine heat engines (cogeneration units) are available in sub 100kW packages and even start to appear in domestic scale units (<50kW), you can burn anything for the input heat component, natgas/liquidgas/biomass/coal/geothermal.. efficiency about 50-60%. The "problem" apparently is that both Rankine or Nitinol style heat conversions are the most decentralized ready approaches, incl. island electricity systems etc.
But for some reason, for all the decades (and prior to that as Rankine is very old stuff) the money went elsewhere, lately into photovoltaic boom, which has been incorporated (by large subsidies) into existing commercial scheme grid system with rather dubious results.
Interesting, smells like someone decided, lets burn the fossils first, and move into alternatives later and curiously in the very opposite order, hence throughout the process let me keep my money & my industrial base & political power, lolz.
ps so if seeking/protecting/fighting about fossil energy is not about energy per se, but about power over people, the history suddenly makes much more sense.. grr