Our economy is a mystery to almost everyone, including economists. Let me explain the way I see the situation:
(1) The big thing that pulls the economy forward is the time-shifting nature of debt and debt-like instruments.
If we want any kind of specialization, we need some sort of long-term obligation that will make that specialization worthwhile. If one hunter-gatherer specializes in finding flints that will start fires, that hunter-gatherer needs some sort of guarantee that others, who are finding food, will share some of their food with him, so that the group, as a whole, can prosper. Others, who specialize in gathering firewood, or in childcare, also need some kind of guarantee that their efforts will be rewarded.
At first, these obligations were enforced by social norms such as, “If you don’t follow the rules of the group, we will throw you out.” Gradually, reciprocal obligations became more formalized, and included more time shifting, “If you will work for me, I will pay you at the end of the month.” Or, “If you will pay my transportation costs to a land of more opportunity, I will repay you with 10% of my wages for the first five years.” Or, “I will sell you this piece of land, if you will pay me x amount per month for y years.”
In some cases, the loan (or loan-like agreements) takes the form of stock ownership of an enterprise. In this case, the promise is for future dividends, and the possibility of growth in the value of the stock, in return for the use of funds. Even though we generally refer to one type of loan-like agreement as “equity ownership” and the other as “debt,” they have a great deal of similarity. Funds are being provided to the enterprise, with the expectation of greater return in the future.
As another example, governments make promises for future benefits, such as Social Security, healthcare, and payments to the unemployed. These payments are not guaranteed, so are not considered debt. Even without a guarantee, they act in many ways like debt. Citizens plan their lives around these payments, even though they may be reduced or eliminated.
Surprisingly, even “cash” is debt. It is similar to a bond that pays zero interest and has no redemption date; this type of bond can also be easily transferred from person to person. Since cash can be hidden under mattresses, it too can be used as a device for time-shifting.
(2) The big thing that goes wrong in this time-shifting approach to operating the economy is the loss of what I would call an “opportunity gradient.”
As long as the future looks better than the past, it makes sense to make these debt-like obligations. But as soon as the future looks worse than in the present, the whole model falls apart. Even if the future looks exactly the same as the present, there is a problem, because taking on these long-term obligations has some overhead costs, such as administrative costs and a margin to cover the possibility of defaults on loans. These overhead costs need to be paid in some way. Because of this, there needs to be enough of an upward gradient to cover the necessary costs of the loans or the loan-like agreements. (This is part of what makes a Steady State Economy, advocated by many, an absurd idea.)
Once the opportunity gradient becomes negative, it becomes very difficult to get anyone to borrow money and to use the resulting debt to lead the economy forward. When the opportunity gradient becomes negative, young people are less inclined to get married, and tend to have fewer children. International organizations of countries (such as the European Union) have a harder time staying connected. The whole model of cooperation working better than “every country for itself” starts falling apart.
Just as human bodies often go downhill before dying, an economy that finds itself on a downward slope may very well be near collapse.
(3) The loss of an opportunity gradient comes from diminishing returns in many areas, including:
- Rising energy extraction costs
- Rising costs of mitigating pollution, as increasing resources are extracted and used; these pollution mitigation costs are really part of total extraction costs
- Reduced quantity of arable land per person
- Reduced fresh water per person, without high-cost treatment such as desalination
- Fewer investment opportunities that allow for true growth, such as providing tractors to farmers who previously used draft animals, or adding a new road that permits fast transit across a country for the first time
- Many more required “investments” that are simply for the purpose of offsetting deterioration in previously built infrastructure
Figure 1 illustrates the extent to which current business and government investment in the United States offsets either depreciation on old investments, or previous investment that was no longer needed for one reason or other–perhaps because manufacturing moved to China.
Figure 1. US Business and Government Capital Investment, based on Table 5.1 (Savings and Investment by Sector) of the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Between 2008 and 2015, only 17% of “Gross Capital Investment” actually became “Net Capital Investment.” With this small amount of true addition to capital investment, it shouldn’t be surprising that what seems to be “productive investment” doesn’t really raise productivity by much. It mostly raises the debt level, without necessarily providing a corresponding benefit to the economy.
(4) Increasing complexity is what acts to offset the many diminishing returns we face. Thus, the situation we face is an increasing battle between growing complexity and diminishing returns.
Many people would consider increasing complexity to be similar to improved technology, but increasing complexity really is broader than improved technology. Besides involving the development of new devices, it involves greater use of specialization, and more use of education. Businesses become larger and more international in scope, and governments offer more services. Organizations become more hierarchical as the economy becomes increasingly complex. With these types of approaches, it is sometimes possible to overcome problems associated with diminishing returns.
If an economy is already reaching limits because of the long-term battle between diminishing returns and rising complexity, the use of an increasingly hierarchical structure tends to lead to a society of “haves” and “have nots.” The people at the top of the hierarchy have more than enough. Those at the bottom of the hierarchy find it increasingly difficult to meet their basic needs for food, housing, and transportation. They find it difficult to afford the output of the economy. This is a problem we are increasingly facing today, because of the way our self-organized economy operates.
(5) Debt plays a greater role, as the economy becomes increasingly complex and uses more technology.
Debt, because of its time-shifting ability, acts almost like magic in allowing an economy with adequate resources to grow. In part, this is because improved technology allows more capital goods used by businesses and governments to be produced. Capital goods made in the year 2016 are designed to provide a long-term benefit into the future, over a future period of, say, 2016 to 2066. Paying workers making these goods becomes a problem unless the future benefit of these capital goods can somehow be brought forward to 2016, so that the workers making the capital goods can be paid. In fact, there is a whole supply chain of workers that needs to be paid. There is also a need to pay many other kinds of costs, including taxes for government services and dividends to shareholders. All of these costs can be paid, using the magic of debt to bring forward the hoped-for future income from the new technology.
Debt is also frequently used for convenience for large purchases, such as buying a house or car. Here, debt effectively promises that the buyer will have enough future income to make the planned payments. It thus brings forward the future income of the debtor, and, through the magic of debt securities, adds this future income to the balance sheet of some organization–a bank, an insurance company, a pension fund, or the purchaser of a bond related to this debt, as if the debtor had already earned the funds needed to pay for the large purchase.
Of course, the problem with using debt and other debt-like approaches to bring forward future revenue flows is the fact that we don’t really know what the benefit of a new capital device will be, and we don’t really know whether a particular individual will be able to continue paying his mortgage or other loan. Perhaps he will become ill; perhaps he will lose his job in a recession, and not be able to find another job that pays as well. With a mortgage, there is a backup possibility that the house can be sold, and its value be used to provide the necessary repayment, but we saw in the Great Recession that property values can drop, so this doesn’t necessarily work either.
The way today’s economy is structured assumes that these future payment streams can be counted on. The value of stocks and bonds are the “assets” of insurance companies and pension plans. Banks can only exist if the loans they make can really be repaid. Our whole financial system is dependent on the current system continuing as usual, with at most a small number of loan defaults, such as are priced into the system.
(6) Growing debt tends to raise commodity prices and encourage commodity production, while falling debt levels tend to lower commodity prices.
If an individual obtains a loan, he or she can buy a home, a car, or other high-priced object, such as a boat. If a business takes out a new loan, it can build a new factory or buy new equipment. Making these objects requires the use of a wide range of commodities, typically including many kinds of metals and energy products. Once these items are placed in service, they are likely to need to continue to consume energy products.
Adding more debt allows the economy to make more goods using commodities. The way the economy encourages more production of a commodity is by bidding up its price. With this higher price, ores of lower grade can be converted to metals, and higher cost energy products can be used to make the desired end products. Alternatively, the higher cost can be used to open new mines or new oil fields, to try to pull the cost of production back down again.
Of course, if debt levels start to shrink or even rise less quickly, the opposite effect tends to happen. Commodity prices tend to fall, because not as many mines and oil wells seem to be needed.
(7) Nurturing economic growth; the key to growth seems to be growing “Disposable Personal Income”
With the magic of borrowing and promising to pay back the borrowed amount with interest (or through share appreciation and dividends), it is possible to start with very little, and gradually create a large economy. The situation is almost like planting an “economic seed,” and nurturing it with (a) additional debt as needed, (b) a growing supply of cheap energy, and (c) a growing population of workers. As long as the debt grows rapidly, the supply of cheap energy grows rapidly, the population of available workers grows rapidly (without becoming too hierarchical), and the other types of diminishing returns listed in Section (3) don’t become too great a problem, the economy can grow and prosper.
One of the keys to producing economic growth seems to be getting sufficient funds back to workers as “disposable personal income.” Disposable personal income (DPI) is after-tax income that gets back to individuals one way or another: as wages, dividends, interest, or rents, or as transfer payments, such as pensions for the elderly and payments to the unemployed, or as government employment of some kind, such as payment for being in an army.
There is a popular belief that GDP is the Goods and Services that an economy can make. As far as I can see, GDP is the Goods and Services that the people living in the economy can afford to buy. There is clearly a commonsense reason why this might be the case: an economy cannot grow, if the people living in the economy cannot afford to buy the goods and services that the economy produces. In the US economy, there is a .98 correlation between the growth in DPI (for all people in the economy combined) and the growth in the US GDP, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Comparison of 3-year average change in disposable personal income with 3-year average change in GDP, based on US BEA Tables 1.1.5 and 2.1.
The GDP used to compute growth rates is not inflation adjusted, nor is the DPI inflation adjusted. These amounts are thus different from the more commonly shown inflation-adjusted amounts.
The way I see things, the amount of inflation in commodity prices is to a significant extent determined by the match between how much disposable personal income is rising, and the quantity of goods and services being produced. As I have discussed previously, energy is essential for producing goods and services. A suitable quantity of energy products must be purchased, no matter how inexpensive or expensive the price of energy may be. If the energy purchased is very cheap, it is likely that the goods and services can be produced very inexpensively. The benefit of this cheap production of goods and services can encourage growth in many parts of the economy at the same time:
- Wages
- Profits to the owner(s); stock dividends
- Interest on debt
- Taxes
- The financial sector can flourish, with all kinds of new products
- Commodity price inflation
- Economic growth
The reason why this pattern happens is because the DPI of citizens (plus whatever amounts that governments and businesses can add to DPI) doesn’t necessarily match up with the cost of making those goods and services.
When energy prices are low, and when there are many opportunities for productive investments, the excess buying power can partly go into new productive capacity, leading to economic growth. Some of it can also go to provide higher wage growth. In fact, all of the items on the above list can be higher.
Figure 3. Average annual Brent equivalent oil price, in 2015 US$, from BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy.
When energy costs are at a high level (see Figure 3), all other parts get squeezed. Instead of seeing inflation in commodity prices, we start seeing deflation in commodity prices. In fact, deflation can bring energy prices below the cost of production. This effect, together with the end of US Quantitative Easing, likely explains the sharp drop in oil prices starting in mid-2014.
Figure 2 shows that, in recent years, the overall annual growth in US DPI and in GDP has been only about 4%. Growth of 4% doesn’t go very far when it needs to cover growing population (about 0.7% per year in the US), plus inflation, plus “real” growth in wages. No wonder commodity prices get squeezed! Because of diminishing returns, the cost of their production rises far more than the modest growth in DPI can afford to cover. Something gets squeezed: energy prices remain far below the cost of extraction.
(8) The 1980 Economic Turning Point
If we look back at Figure 2, we see that the recent peak in the growth of GDP and DPI occurred about 1980, at approximately 11% per year. At 11% there is room for many economic “goodies,” including funds for new investment, raising wages, and inflation.
When growth in GDP and DPI started falling shortly after 1980, many changes occurred in the economy. For one thing, wage disparity in the US started increasing (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Chart comparing income gains of the top 10% to income gains of the bottom 90% by economist Emmanuel Saez. Based on an analysis of IRS data, published in Forbes.
This was also about the time when US interest rates started to fall. Ten-year treasury rates hit a peak in 1981.
Figure 5. Ten-year treasury interest rates, based on St. Louis Fed data.
It also seems to be the time when increases in debt no longer automatically triggered a corresponding increase in the wages of non-government workers (Figure 6).
Figure 6. Three-year average increase in debt compared to three-year average increase in Wage Base, defined as non-governmental wages plus proprietors’ income.
In Figure 6, “Wage Base” is wages of non-governmental workers, including wages of proprietors, such as farmers. I consider my wage base to be “regular” wages, before all the government manipulations that produce the much higher DPI, which includes transfer payments, and wages paid under government programs. Figure 7 shows a comparison of the relative amounts. On Figure 7, note that the upward “blip” in the Wage Base occurred in the 1998-2000 period, when the price of oil was unusually low (Figure 3), leaving more for wages.
Figure 7. Personal Income, Disposable Personal Income, and Wage Base, as Percentage of GDP, Based on BEA tables 1.1.5 and 2.1.
(9) The Problem of Ever Rising Government Expenditures, and Government Receipts that Don’t Increase Enough
If we look at the historical pattern of governmental costs, we see that there has been a long-term upward trend in governmental costs. Figure 8 combines receipts and disbursements for all types of governments (federal, state, and local). The Wage Base, mentioned previously, is used as the denominator, because even taxes paid by businesses will indirectly affect prices paid by customers.
Figure 8. US government expenditures and receipts compared to wage base, based on BEA Table 3.1. Amounts include federal, state, and local taxes, and include funding for Social Security.
In Figure 8, Government expenditures peaked at over 90% of the wage base. Clearly these expenditures are only possible because they include a big increase in debt at the time of the bank bailouts and all of the stimulus activities.
The fact that government receipts have stalled at about 66% of the wage base since 1981 suggests that there is a problem in raising taxes above the current level. We may not even be able to maintain our current tax level, if required payments for health care coverage under the Affordable Care Act behave like another tax.
(10) The Recent Decline in US Debt Growth
If we compare the growth in total US debt (not just governmental debt) to the Wage Base (includes all non-government wages, including proprietors’ income), we see a rather surprising pattern (Figure 9):
Figure 9. US debt as compared to Wage Base, based on FRED and BIS data.
The ratio of debt to wages remained pretty constant until about 1980, when it began to rise sharply. This was about the time when wages started to diverge, and interest rates began to decline. Once oil prices fell to lower levels in the late 1980s, the non-financial debt level settled back, compared to wages. When oil prices began to rise in the early 2000s, the total debt level skyrocketed. These patterns suggest that debt growth is strongly related to the price of oil. Less debt is needed to keep the economy going when oil prices are very low; much more debt is needed when the cost of oil production is high.
Since 2008, we see a different pattern. The debt level is falling, despite record low interest rates. We discussed in Section 2 the need for an “Opportunity Gradient” to encourage borrowing. At this point, there does not seem to be a sufficient Opportunity Gradient to keep borrowing at the very high 2008 level, and even grow from this point. The failure of US debt to grow relative to wages is thus part of the reason why oil prices cannot be raised to a high enough level to make oil production profitable.
The low growth in US debt is likely a problem for the rest of the world, too. Since oil is priced in dollars, I expect that the US really needs to be a leader in debt growth, if the world economy is to grow. The US no longer seems to be trying to be a leader in debt growth; it ended Quantitative Easing in 2014, has raised interest rates once, and is now planning to raise interest rates again. This creates a problem for other countries, because their currencies tend to fall relative to the dollar, when US interest rates rise. If these other countries do attempt to raise their debt levels, their currency levels tend to fall relative to the US dollar, mostly negating the benefit of the debt increase when it comes to buying oil and other energy products. This makes it very difficult to use debt to provide new programs, such as guaranteed income plans for citizens.
(11) Conclusion
This analysis is based on US data, but it gives some insight into what is happening on a world basis. I would expect that Europe and Japan are in many ways not too different from the US. The world economy has done better, because it includes countries with more opportunities for investments that might truly be associated with economic growth.
The situation everywhere may very well be that growth is a temporary phenomenon. Rapid growth occurs for a while, but then it fades away. When it fades away, inflation tends to shift to deflation. This presents a huge problem, because our financial institutions are built using debt and debt-like instruments. When deflation hits, the “Opportunity Gradient” changes from favorable to unfavorable for future investment. This creates a much greater likelihood of future debt defaults, and discourages citizens from wanting to take out loans to finance new investments. All of these things are concerns for the future functioning of the economy.
The situation we seem to be encountering is that economies, both of the world and of individual countries, are dissipative systems. As such, they require energy. Similar to other dissipative systems (hurricanes, ecosystems, stars, plants and animals), they grow for a while, and eventually collapse.
Economies, as dissipative systems, seem to need several kinds of systems. Energy provides sustenance for an economy, in a way similar to the way food provides sustenance for humans. The debt system acts somewhat similarly to the way a human’s circulation system works; the time-transfer mechanism provides a pumping action similar to that of the heart. The pricing system acts very much like a human’s sensory system; it allows the system to discern whether the current opportunity gradient is sufficient to justify adding more debt. Thus, this analysis suggests that one way the system may fail is through commodity prices that fall too low. Most people have never considered the possibility that this could happen.
Intermittent renewables, such as wind and solar, might be considered as similar to a type of food that causes the sensory system of the economy to malfunction (similar to deafness or blindness). This happens because, as I discussed in a previous post, intermittent renewables disrupt the pricing system for electricity by dumping electricity on the grid without regard to whether the price signals indicate that the additional electricity is actually needed. As a result, prices for other types of electricity (such as nuclear and natural gas) become depressed, necessitating subsidies. This shows why overly simple models cannot be relied upon when evaluating possible solutions to our energy problems.
It would be nice if we could figure out a way to make our economy last forever, but it is doubtful that we can. Ultimately, the battle between diminishing returns and increased complexity seems likely to be settled in a way that causes the economy to collapse.
Mr. Fast Eddy, you often point to a financial crash being the starting point of the apocalypse. But the financial circus are basically nothing but numbers on a screen, why would our civilization fall to such an abstract thing? Sure, there might be some disruption to payment/logistics of goods&services for some days, but if are we able to build space ships and put men on the moon then surely we would be able to put in place some makeshift credit system (or whatever) until things get sorted out?
I wouldn’t count on being able to put in a makeshift financial system. The problem with the financial system is that right now, people cannot borrow money and use this invested money to make an adequate profit (to pay back the loan with interest). This happens in many areas. Young people take out loans to take out loans to get a college education. Too often, the jobs they get are not high enough paying to pay back the loan with interest, plus allow them to marry and buy a house. Those taking out loans for oil and gas are finding that the oil and gas don’t sell for a high enough price to make their efforts worthwhile. Many other commodity producers are running into the same problem.
It is the lack of profitability that is the problem. A new debt system would still have the lack of profitability problem (unless the interest rate were very negative).
It’s exactly why an economy cannot work in reverse. We cannot work it backwards. It should be obvious.
Gail,
A non-debt, non-interest based system is possible. The old soviet union had one. Even the old soviet union system can be improved. Have you heard of social credit? In such a system it would be possible to fund projects via equity investment from the public. Government would not have to own and operate everything as in the old soviet system.
However, even if a transition to such a system is possible International trade would stop because it is so dependent on the current system. Which would lead to collapse anyway.
We are truly screwed.
Only thing is left is to enjoy this life. And look forward to a possible good after life.
Mansoor
money represents a token of energy exchange
therefore if you try to exchange money in a virtually endless system, the energy input part is being ignored
but it cannot be ignored because someone somewhere has to be inputting that energy into the system to make it function/
“funding projects” i assume must mean building things—housing, sewers etc etc. Stuff like that requires input of primary energy. Problem is we are running out of primary energy sources. You cannot build a house on the energy output of a solar farm.
“Equity investment” from the public represents use of energy tokens that the “public” has earned in some other way, surplus to their own requirements and basic taxation.
Our entire commercial system functions on energy token exchange. But there has to be real energy there to back it up, otherwise the “tokens” have no exchange value at all.
I can’t think of a viable alternative, though there may be one,
any suggestions?
Excellent post! This is what individuals advocating labor trade systems of various sorts refuse to acknowledge.
A good after-life is indeed a consolation: one only hopes that it doesn’t involve virgins of any kind. Experienced women are much to be preferred.
I think you are overlooking the difficulties of putting in place a makeshift credit system. There are millions of organizations and billions of people saving, investing, borrowing, issuing bills and paying each other with various forms of IOUs. It would be easier to put a Trump Hotel on the moon while BAU is running than to put our financial Humpty Dumpty together again once the system collapses.
In fact, putting a Trump Hotel on the moon might be just what we need to do to maintain growth and optimism. Donald, Elon, Keith, are you listening?
only if El Trumpo is there to manage it
I just don’t think people will lay down and die because of some payment problems, solutions will be made region by region to calm the people until a “new BAU” gets stitched together. The financial system / fiat money has always been a ponzi scheme anyway because sooner or later it had to face physical limits, but at the end of day it is just an abstract concept humans have created to facilitate our lives. We can just modify it or create a new system at will, theoretically speaking.
IOW our faith lies in the physical world: climate change, widespread shortages of food/water or disease will be the starting point of the collapse.
FE,
At first I found your cynicism cute. Now I find it tedious and boring.
Puppies are cute….
While human offspring are monsters…. as expected considering they are members of the most vicious animals ever to walk the earth….
I am not cute nor am I trying to be cute… so I do not know where you got that notion from…. I am dead serious.
You know what I find boring?
I find it boring to listen to Permies proudly proclaim how they are completely self-sustaining without acknowledging that they are pretty much completely plugged into BAU.
And that that they could continue to be self-sustaining without BAU.
BUT… but…. they won’t take the Challenge…. come on … take the Challenge…. come out of the bubble world and see what unplugged really looks like — you don’t even to worry about the hordes on the dry run … because the super markets will be full…. the police will still be patrolling … heck I can even make a concession – you can use the phone for emergency calls…
Scott Nearing is the Permie role model — yet ironically Scott Nearing acknowledges that he used a pick up truck and cement and factory tools etc etc etc…. when electricity became available he used that as well…. he flew off to Florida in the winter… he sold books through his buddy BAU….
I also find it boring when Permies ignore the obvious — which is that hungry people will pour through the gates demanding to be fed post BAU
Do Permies think they have an impenetrable force field around their islands of plenty that will keep the hordes out? — or maybe they think they are invisible….
Probably not — they just puff the hopium pipe… which allows them to ignore the obvious.
I hope I am boring you to the point where you decide the FW is hostile territory…. and you retreat to DelusiSTAN….
I wonder how many times we’ll need to read about space solar today … Keith what have you got for us? Have any of your mates met with ‘the Chinese’ today — there is a Chinese takeaway in the town near us run by real Chinese people — from China…. do you want me to pass along your contact info and a one page summary of The Plan?
Anyone else have exciting news from DelusiSTAN? Let er rip….. don’t hold back… blurt it out…. so long as it is devoid of all facts logic or common sense you can feel you are contributing to the anti-knowledge base of FW….
Enjoy the music, as Fast Eddy goes chasing the Koombayaists and Delusistanis:
Scott Nearing lived without BAU when a young man, like you are now…and he didn’t whine like a little girl after being slapped around standing up to the PTB.
You are all talk Eddy …like I wrote…tell us what you CAN DO …not what can’t
In Vermont the Nearings lived without electricity, indoor plumbing, or any source of heat beyond hand-split firewood. They ate most of their food raw out of wooden bowls with chopsticks. They foreswore alcohol, caffeine, and tobacco. They divided their days into three units: four hours for “bread labor;” four hours for music, writing, and other avocations; and four hours for social interaction. They avoided cash as much as possible. What money they did handle came as a result of a maple sugaring operation they used to create specialty candy and syrup. Scott’s exacting practices amazed even Helen. “I bet you fold your toilet paper neat and square,” she once chided him. He acknowledged that he did.
http://archive.boston.com/news/globe/ideas/articles/2004/09/05/the_really_simple_life?pg
In Vermont the Nearings lived without electricity, indoor plumbing, or any source of heat beyond hand-split firewood.
Scott’s karate training would have come in handy there.
Oh, another comic…like we didn’t have enough of them already…as a matter of fact…it was duly noted that Scott inherited a tool collection from his infamous grandfather, Winfield Scott; caring for them as he got them till the end of his long life at 100.
I must point out that those that attack seem to feel all we will have are stones afterwards to work with. Well, the Nearing were experts builders with stone.
Remember in Vermont, where the LIVED the Fast Eddy challenge for decades when they were in there prime years, there was a functioning government, hence the need for cash money to pay taxes. Again, Helen and Scott lived in a different era…got that Eddy.
Most of us here admire what the Nearings did and see them as role models from whom we can learn much about the human spirit. I think Eddy secretly does too. But Eddy would never admit that now that he’s proven to his own satisfaction that living The Good Life in the 21st Century is not going to be a sustainable or viable prospect.
As I see it, everything is sustainable and viable until the conditions change and it isn’t. Individual human life is a case in point. We live our lives hoping, fearing, dreaming, wishing, wanting, striving or scheming, planning and building for the future as if we had infinite potential, when all we really have is our present experience, which includes of course our memories of the past and our projections and expectations of the future. And deep down, we all know that one day we will no longer be around.
Given the human condition, what the Nearings did in Vermont seems like a sane and sensible way of living, regardless of how the rest of the world was or is rolling along. I personally, would have kept chickens, goats, cats and dogs. I think having friendly animals around would have made the time pass more pleasantly for everyone. But as Scot said, they are parasites since they require feeding and fussing.
Norman,
You ask some very pertinent questions, which I will try to answer.Hopefully I don’t make a fool of myself in the process’
I was made aware of peak oil and their potential implications in the early 2000’s. While this did scare the living daylights out of me,deep down I was not ,completely surprised, as from an early age without any concrete evidence or data I just had this innate feeling that this system we live in was pure insanity.
Anyway,to cut along story short, I was fortunate enough to start and grow a business in petroleum related products specifically in the pharmaceutical/cosmetic sector and grew it to a point that one of the majors bought the company.This was a huge relief to me, not only due to the fact that it gave me financial freedom to pursue something with a more noble cause but also relieved me of the emotional burden of living in hypocrisy. You see I have always been an environmentalist and earning a living from the very industry that is responsible for more destruction of the planet and other species, never did sit comfortably with me.
With this new financial freedom I carefully selected a property in the foothills of the Drakensburg, surrounded on three sides by mountains with access through one point only.The nearest village is 40kms away and major metropolitan area 180 kms.While most of my neighbours are commercial farmers completely reliant all the mod cons of civilization I’m kind of regarded as the local nutter I’d like to believe that when the shtf that everyone will get together as a true community and not the faux community that currently exists and defend our valley( which is certainly achievable from a geographical point).Most of the farmers are very well stocked when it comes to arms and ammo.And please before someone starts accusing us of being right wing nut jobs,being well armed in Africa is something of a necessity/.
Norman,you mentioned the fact with all the infrastructure that has been set up, that I will be a prime target. I’m fully aware of the increased risk this entails,however, what alternatives does one have? Invest in the stock market and live in the city, I’d rather die.At least this way I can die defending a piece of land that I love and maybe in the process get in some good target practice.(just joking)
And maybe ,just maybe with a little luck make it through the bottleneck.
thanks for your response Craig, it helps a lot to know what other people are doing in the face of inevitable unpleasantness.
I can only wish you well with your endeavours, not everyone can have to means to prepare on your scale, but it does show what we face when so many individuals, acting independently, are prepared to go to such lengths, and in the face of ridicule from others in the vicinity.
Some people of my close circle nod in agreement “that something is wrong” but if the point is pressed further—” they will fix things” is the main answer to the problem. Any more discussion than that brings a shrug of the shoulders.
2 weeks ago, I was discussing my book (The End of More) face to face with someone with a Masters degree in geology, who assured me that if UK got the climate of Italy, it would be to our benefit—his shrug was the reaction to me pointing out that Italy would get the Sahara. (Everyone will adapt to live with it apparently).
I was also reassured that it will be 00s of years before we run out of anything critical. He also bought into the idea that scientists are promoting global warming to gain research funding.
I mention this only to point out the state of denial that governs intellect of a fairly high level, where there is a refusal to admit that there’s anything seriously wrong.
So you are right in securing your situation as best you can, and try to work some of your neighbours around to your point of view eventually.
Norman-
I’ve ordered your book and hope to have some of my friends read it. One guy in particular has a Phd in education and he thinks very much the same as the person you speak about.
I don’t know how to get through to anyone of them. Your as articulate and knowable as anyone I’ve ever read on the subject and a real gent to boot. I’ll let you know if the book turns a light bulb on in anyone.
thanks—i hope it switches lights on too
though to be realistic—that’s why i put a candle in the right hand corner of the cover—-and on my twitter feed
i fear that’s as much illumination as it will bring to many people—-but don’t let that put anyone off buying it!!
Norman, I am a died-in-the-wool skeptic, bordering in the cynic, and as such I am constantly grappling with the question of what I myself am in denial (meaning the irrational refusal to accept inconvenient facts) of at this moment. Sometimes I catch myself out. But a lot of the time I suspect I am so good at fooling myself that I remain unaware (or in denial) of the fact that I’m in denial.
But being well aware of my own tendency towards denial, I am more sympathetic toward and less critical of other people’s similar tendencies than I otherwise would be. Which is just as well, because 99% of the people I interact with would be in denial about the prospects for “the end of more” and economic collapse let alone human extinction if the subject was raised. “They will fix things” is an article of faith among most people I’ve talked to. About a third of the Japanese I’ve talked with on the subject think there’s something in astrology and fortune-telling based on blood types. My mother was astrology mad too, and although there was no point in trying to argue her out of it, I once got her to admit that she drew comfort from it in the same way she did from smoking, drinking and bingo.
SImilarly, of late we’ve seen that among the supposedly better educated green-leaning people, the belief that solar panels and wind turbines are going to save us from collapse is ubiquitous. No matter how clearly you spell out the facts and figures to these people, they remain like deer in the headlights, mesmerized by the glossy high-tech image of a world powered by “clean”, “renewable”, low-carbon” energy sources.
These attitudes are forms of denial or willful ignorance. But they are understandable. People have psychological needs and for most of us, admitting we’re doomed and letting that sink in is too much of a downer. They will cross that bridge when they are marched up to it and not a moment before.
The geology graduate you talked with brought up the the idea that scientists are promoting global warming to gain research funding. You seem dismissive of this contention, but it seems obvious given that there is a lot of research funding available for scientists who tie their grant proposals in with the climate change meme. How much would the good Professor Wadhams, for instance, receive from the funders towards those Arctic voyages if he simply stated he was going to study the climate and nature of the polar regions, rather than making headline-grabbing claims about the disappearance of the ice cap and the threat to polar bears?
There’s a huge budget for this sort of climate science and it flows through all sorts of channels. I’m a professional translator and 17 years ago I received an order to work on the English edition a book containing about 30 Japanese scientific papers on the threat posed by global warming; how a temperature rise would affect the trees, the snakes, the butterflies, the pikas, the wild boar—whose distribution is limited by heavy winter snow cover, etc. The book was published a mix of organizations headed by Biodiversity Network Japan and The World Conservation Union.
It’s an interesting book. What strikes me most keenly reading these papers today is that in many cases the authors mixed their observations and measurements with warnings that if action was not taken to limit CO2, such and such a negative consequence would happen. It was advocacy in the guise of science. That’s the reason why it was published. And this large-scale well-funded and well-publicized advocacy effort has continued right down to the present day for the purpose of molding public opinion and allowing the green gravy train to keep rolling. You find it in its most over-the-top form in the Environment Section of the Guardian, where they have made it into a cartoonish art form. It’s no wonder people trained in the hard sciences who are not involved in the activity are openly scoffing. That isn’t denial. It’s the common or garden refusal of the educated sceptic to be taken in by what seems an obvious con.
scepticism and denial are understandable in the face of the torrent of information flowing over us right now.
Though reading through your response, I couldn’t quite decide whether you finally came down on the denial side or the acceptance side
Obviously there is a degree of truth in the scientific community benefitting from grants etc—we all like to get paid for what we do, no matter how dubious. We are all cursed with self righteousness to varying degrees, but I think it is bigger than any con.
But irrespective of the level of righteousness we stand at, there seem to be certain factors which are beyond dispute, and these are going to affect our future.
The guesswork is in the “how”.
The first is, can we go on as we are, indefinitely?
Politicians/economists promise growth in every speech. Trump offers 4% or whatever. This means output doubles in 15 years, requiring (energy) input to double over 15 years. The Chinese look for 7%—doubling in 10 years.
We do not have that availability of energy any more. And you cannot have growth without energy input. Degrowth destabilizes the entire system
So the answer is no.
But population is on track to rise by 2/3 bn over the next 30 years, in regions of the world hardest hit by resource shortages. Their mothers are alive now, and sex seems as popular a pastime as ever.
We cannot sustain 9 or 10bn—not because we couldn’t produce enough food, but because we will lack the means to move it to where it’s needed, and the means to supply all the other necessities of life as well. And only outright starvation stops a woman ovulating, so as long as food is available, breeding will continue.
No research papers needed to agree that’s another indisputable no.
But if we cannot sustain an extra 3 bn, it follows that something has got to prevent it happening. And fast. The billion of us who are well fed right now will be overrun by those who are not.
Take your preventative pick:
Warfare—But warfare is a choice. WW1 and 2 knocked off 100m or so, and didn’t affect population rise at all. Anyone unleashing nukes knows they will be destroyed in retailiation—so that’s unlikely. Nobody can afford “conventional” wars any more. So we are left with regional conflicts killing a few 100,000s that most of us quietly ignore. Not enough deaths.
Disease— We have the means (at the moment) to stop pandemics. So when a virus threatens to halt population growth, our collective humanity makes us prevent it. Our genetic forces are programmed to take advantage of every opportunity. Medical science provides that opportunity for life. We take it and breed more people.
Global overheating—-. When the human body gets an infection, temperature rises, we get a fever and hopefully get well. If we don’t get rid of the fever, the bugs overwhelm our system, and we die.
It might just be that the planet has recognized humankind as an infection, and is responding in the same way; global overheating is the resulting fever that gets rid of us quickly.
As we are on track to reach 10bn people, then the fever remedy has got to be administered soon.
There would appear to be only one aspect of our current existence that we cannot control, Global warming, and the fastest manifestation of that seems to be Arctic methane release:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/2016-arctic-report-card-global-warming_us_58504a9fe4b04c8e2bb249b8
This report seems to go beyond the conspiracy level of a few scientists and confirms work by others in the same field. If/when the methane bomb goes off, that will deliver the ‘’unknown’’ rapid factor that will reduce population to sustainable levels on planetary (as opposed to national) terms, by boosting temperatures into the 4c to 6c region very quickly, before we can reach the 10bn mark in people.
Which means over the next 10-20 years or so, because we will not get to 10bn and then stop.
This looks as if it will be the SHTF moment, that kind of time period can be said to be instantaneous.
If this is as catastrophic as I think it might be, then denial will be overwhelmed by reality, but not before we have indulged in more pointless warfare to disprove that reality, and helped nature to administer her awful remedy.
If anyone out there has any alternative medication, I’d like a bottle please.
“has any alternative medication”
As anyone who looks up in the daytime can see, we don’t lack energy. We currently lack the means to collect it at a cost we can afford. With enough really cheap energy, we could cope with all the current crop of problems and impose less of an ecological burden on the Earth than we currently do.
I don’t know if this will happen, not having infallible knowledge about the future. But there doesn’t seem to be physics based reasons for why it could not be done.
i had every intention of becoming a sun worshipper
until i was informed that i would have to sacrifice a virgin every morning at dawn.
i couldn’t be bothered to get up that early
LOL!
“As anyone who looks up in the daytime can see, we don’t lack energy. We currently lack the means to collect it at a cost we can afford. ”
Good way of putting the problem!
I have talked to quite a few people in academia who have pointed out that a very large portion of the funding that is available is in the area of climate change. Universities are short of funding. If these researchers want to have jobs, they pretty much need to slant their research toward the area where the funding is.
Of course, the research is very often in the direction of the feasibility of doing this or that. If a person makes a narrow model, and doesn’t worry too much about costs (or assumes the fossil fuel prices will rise forever), almost anything appears feasible. Thus we end up with a huge amount of scientific “stuff” relating to climate change.
Pretty much no one understands the interconnected nature of the system. Even if they did, trying to model what all happens would not be feasible. So all of the models assume that fossil fuel production will be far more than is possible, given that reduced energy consumption will cause the economy to crash. Of course, no one could put this in their model.
The models aren’t what needs to be accurate as they’re nothing but predictions or forecasts. The scary thing about climate change is looking at historical data, such as what the ice sheets in the Arctic have been doing the last few decades or what the CO2 has been doing for the last few million years. If you look at that data it is quite clear that we are in uncharted territory in a few different areas of our biosphere.
I’m in agreement with the consensus that it’s likely a financial collapse gets us first and that we can’t do anything about the climate. That said, AGW still appears to be happening and it also appears quite probable that humans are the cause. I don’t think it’s possible that we’ve suddenly found ourselves in the middle of the sixth great extinction on Earth and that humans didn’t contribute since we’re outside of the natural CO2 cycle and haven’t been hit by an asteroid. Why would suddenly everything just start rapidly dying off at rates faster than previous extinctions? Something is obviously very broken.
I would argue that physics is the cause, rather than human beings. Humans are dissipative structures. They do not have a choice on consuming supplemental energy. Supplemental energy is what causes the economy to exist. Cutting back would collapse the economy and likely bring an end to most of the population.
Talking about climate change being caused by humans gives the impression that humans have control of their actions. In the aggregate, they don’t. (Politicians think they have control over the world economy, but they don’t really either.)
Norman, you are quite right that we can’t continue to grow the world economy and that it will all end in tears for all of us. This is a fundamental point that all Finite Worlders must agree on and it is what sets us apart from the Cornucopianists who see boundless future potential for the human race and the Koombayaists who imagine us living some variant of BAU LIte such as the Nearings did in the Good Life.
I’m skeptical about catastrophic future climate predictions (including the methane one) and at the same time I’m grateful that there is such a lot of climate research and monitoring going on and that I’ve been learning and having fun watching how the system’s been evolving over the past 20 years. Also, I agree that human activities are causing climate changes on regional scales. We create deserts through overgrazing such as the one in Baluchistan and we’ve produced the Asian Brown Cloud, to give two major examples.
I’ve grown contemptuous of voices urging us to “save the climate” or “fight climate change” by cutting CO2 emissions. This is not because I want to see a climate catastrophe but because common sense tells me that if human activities can alter climate drastically, then given out numbers, attempting to curtail our activities would be futile. For example, drastically reduce fossil fuel use without an alternative energy source and people will simply emulate the people of Haiti, Nepal or Easter Island and cut down every last tree in a desperate attempt to get firewood.
But at the same time I think we are undergoing a sustained economic decline now which could bring us to the edge of the Seneca cliff in a matter of years or possibly decades. The efforts to kick the can down the road are distorting the economic framework to the point where the complex machinery no longer works smoothly and is barely ticking over.
At the Automatic Earth, Raúl Ilargi Meijer has named his regular roundup of news articles “Debt Rattle”, which I think is is appropriate because our system is starting to exhibit behavior resembling that of a dying animal that is producing a death rattle. We humans can be compared with the individual cells that form the animal. We were born inside the thing and are totally dependent on its proper functioning for our livelihood, and once it takes its last gasp, we’re done for. We’re not there yet. But our system is not at all healthy and if it were to visit a hospital, it would be placed immediately in an ICU and be connected up to numerous tubes and sensors.
“But our system is not at all healthy and if it were to visit a hospital, it would be placed immediately in an ICU and be connected up to numerous tubes and sensors.”
No Tim, palliative care and morphine, with a big sign “Do NOT ressuscitate”.
Right now, we are in the ICU though. Not yet moved to palliative care and morphine.
There’s a huge world of difference between the obvious agenda promoting Guardian and just looking at hard numbers, data, or graphs. One is capable of and has an interest in lying and the other is merely numbers being plugged into something. The numbers are horrifying and indicate bad trends, regardless of people’s personal beliefs. It appears that the Guardian is making money out of scaring people and abrupt climate change is happening. Never let a good crisis go to waste and all that jazz.
Tango, thanks. I think your view is quite reasonable. I have acquaintances who have worked for NASA on climate science and who are not partisans, and they tell me that several degrees C of warming is on the way, that it probably won’t be sudden but that it’s baked into the cake over the coming decades or centuries due to the CO2 we are putting out and the various feedbacks.I don’t dismiss those arguments out of hand. They could end up being correct.
But at present I’m placing my bets on other hypotheses that state that adding more CO2 will only result in marginal warming and that the current warm decades are occurring because we have been at the top half of a 60~65 year cycle of temperature variation so the next 20 years will see temperatures going down rather than up.
Whether we will still be capable of measuring global average temperature 20 years from now and chatting about it over the internet is another matter, of course.
If we were strictly dealing with increasing CO2 you might be right. Feedback loops and other sources of heat though could increase our temperature much more rapidly. Giant methane burps coming off the ocean floor and tundra, for example, would theoretically increase our temperature much faster. But I definitely believe the system is much too complex to accurately predict what is going to happen or how quickly. All we really have to go on is historical data as forecasts for virtually everything usually end up being wrong. All of that said, I’m still of the belief that AGW will make our biosphere uninhabitable for humans within a decade but that belief is outside of the overwhelming majority of scientific consensus.
I’d be inclined to pick an isolated, defensible, valley over the life of a semi-starved, disarmed town-dweller in a never ending propaganda-saturated ’emergency’ any day (see any number of cities and towns during the Russian Revolution, WW2, etc) Much better odds, and a saner environment.
The Mongols – and, earlier, Alexander the Great – managed to penetrate to some unlikely places and storm incredibly strong ‘inaccessible’ fortresses, but they were superb armies and generals.
Good luck to you!
High oil prices will lead to a slowdown in economic activity, to demand destruction, to an increase in oil inventories… which will push the oil price down.
Low oil prices will then lead to cuts in capex which will lead to a fall in production… which will raise the oil price… which leads to a new round of economic slowdown and demand destruction.
It’s a death spiral.
http://www.gizapower.com/Plate%204.jpg
High oil prices will lead to a slowdown in economic activity, to demand destruction, to an increase in oil inventories… which will push the oil price down.
Low oil prices will then lead to cuts in capex which will lead to a fall in production… which will raise the oil price… which leads to a new round of economic slowdown and demand destruction.
Low oil prices lead to an increase in economic activity, more demand for oil, decrease in oil inventories and the price of oil will rise.
High oil prices will then lead to increases in capex and a rise in production. This will reduce the cost of oil causing more economic growth and increased demand.
Growth forever!
‘Low oil prices lead to an increase in economic activity, more demand for oil, decrease in oil inventories and the price of oil will rise.’
Not this time…. the consumer is out of cash and heavily in debt… so many are barely surviving…. lower oil priced are not jump starting the economy…. because we gutted the economy trying to keep it alive under the weight of $100+ oil for those few years as the CB’s went full Goldilocks on the porridge to encourage a deluge of investment into oil plays that would never have happened if oil had stayed below 50 bucks….
It was a price worth paying though — because we had peaked on oil and something had to be done….. we were against the wall….
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/17/why-falling-oil-price-not-mean-global-economic-boom
That used to be true. After peak things look different.
The oil price has been below the cost of production for over two years now… but the inventories just keep on growing.
The producers keep extracting partly in an effort to pay the bills (some keep going backwards anyway) and partly to convince markets that they can. Many consumers cannot afford to increase their spending – therefore cannot afford to buy the products made from the increased quantities of oil made available. More producers are going bankrupt or just barely hanging on.
High inventories are not a sign of things going well. Quite the opposite.
I agree with both of you. When the oil companies can no longer make a profit at a price the customer can afford, something has to give.
The prices don’t go up enough to really pay for the higher production.
The last part of what you said isn’t right. High oil prices raise the cost of production, rather than lowering it, because all commodity prices rise at once, and it takes commodities to extract oil.
The reason that oil production will fall is because consumers can’t afford goods made with high-priced oil. These goods are also uncompetitive with goods made with cheaper energy (coal, natural gas, hydroelectric) elsewhere. This is what leads to cutbacks in production. Probably debt defaults come about the same time as high oil prices, because some consumers will find it necessary to default on loans to pay for higher-priced oil.
I agree. I wonder how much of a “bounce” we can get.
I think we are post peak on both oil and coal at this point. Coal recently had a bounce in price, in sort of the same way.
2017 is the year. Bankruptcy king will be the ringmaster.
“With $3.4 billion in annual benefits payments versus only $1.9 billion in contributions, funds like the New Jersey Public Employees’ Retirement System already qualified as a plain vanilla ponzi scheme. But, using what little pension assets they have left (38% net funded) to buy debt in the entity that ultimately backstops their liabilities is a whole new level of madness. ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-12/pension-ponzi-squared-new-jersey-wants-sell-debt-its-own-insolvent-pension-funds
An insolvent organization issuing bonds to an insolvent pension fund. Almost reminds me of Tesla merger with Solar City. We have many examples of combinations that can’t come out well.
There is not going to be shtf. There is only continuation of trends. War, entertainment, allocation of resources, etc. The trick is how to keep the working class both working, and fighting each other when the time is right.
Herr Doctor Fast Eddy has never zeen za caze of such extreme deluzion…. profound… unheard of…. ve must document ziss …. za colleaguez at za hozpital will be amazed…
Do you zink you might make yourzelf available for zee examination? Vee vood like to um .. how to say ziss… open za top of za head to peek at za brain …. it vill hurt juzt a little ..vury….
How iz tomorrow at 2pm?
Vunce we understand the zyndrome vee shall bottle it and sell it to za sheeple…. 95% for Fast Eddy Enterpriizez … 5% for you.
Ziss iz ok? I vill get za contract ready.
Wow… that second comment makes no sense since the first one is being held for moderation …. allo….
I am working on a script for Idiocracy Two…
In this version the idiots spread chemical fertilizers on 99%+ of all their farmland… made from substances that were known to finite … which would kill the soil… resulting in their extinction…
They hero arrives on the scene just as the last of the petro chemical fertilizers is mixed into the soil … and global famine threatens…
That’s as far as I have gotten… I am having trouble with a happy ending….
Try putting Powerade in the plot somewhere.
How about a rousing chord or two of Koombaya with closeup shots of the youngest and weakest among them getting to eat first?
Worldofhanumanotg,
We specifically chose old eqiupment and refurbished them. We run a 1979 Ford 4000, a 1984 Kubota mini tractor and reconned FORD 5500 for the genset mainly used to charge batteries during inclement weather.Believe it or not Ford and Kubota still carry spares for these old models
Yes we do run a dual fuel system however, we do not use commercial diesel as a starter fuel, instead we use a low flash white oil which is derived from the fischer tropsch process which is available from a local refinery. We use this purely because of its long shelf life.I carry 40 x 44 gal drums in stock for prepping purposes.We also replaced all rubber hoses with stainless braided. Believe it or not in winter we use an electric blanket as a preheater.
while i have the greatest admiration for your advance prepping and thinking—in a previous post you talk about anything that moves getting looted, but in this post you mention 40×44 gal oil storage.
I am genuinely interested in your situation, because you have employees, and that amount of oil (and presumably a lot of other stuff) cannot go unnoticed among your wider local community
Africa itself seems to be a tinderbox for lawless grabbing—(thinking of Zimbabwe as an example)
How will you resolve this as a coming problem?
Thanks a lot for your informative response!
FE,
Regarding your chickens and a lack of eggs, we started a fairly substantial worm farm(fed entirely from vegetation generated from our farm. In winter we grow vetch which is a nitrogen fixer which provides the necessary greens during the cold months). Since we started feeding our chickens the necessary proteins from the worms our egg production rocketed.
Regarding sheep, we have been farming a local indigenous breed for the last 5 years, using almost none of the normal vaccines and dips normally used in commercial farming and so far(touch wood) no problems.
Regarding compost, there are many sources of nitrogen, besides manure that can be used in compost production, all available on any well run small farm.
Regarding ‘there are so many hours in a day’boy! do I feel your pain regarding this.However, surely, during a collapse scenario one should be able to muster enough like minded people to share the workload required in a post industrial world.(wishful thinking)
I have spent the last 6 years and countless amounts of cash in setting up what I would call as near as possible to a self sustaining set up including,heated greenhouse, substantial solar installation,small abattoir, orchards, micro bio-diesel plant, composting operation, micro dairy (the only part of the farm which is income generating), apiary, micro brewery, small vineyard (cabernet)with the necessary wine making equipment The sad part about this story, of all the aforementioned investments that have been made only the dairy,vegetables and solar are truly operational the rest are merely gathering dust.The orchards(including my beloved strawberries) are being devoured by the local bird population(so much for sharing with nature),the grapes wither on the vine(lack of manpower to harvest), the yield on heirloom organic maize is rock bottom because they have to compete with the weeds as I refuse to use chemicals.The list goes on and on.
You see I had this romantic notion that once I had set this entire operation up that I could convince my wife and 2 adult sons to participate in what I would call a necessary path to the future. Presently my sons still work in the city, my wife persuaded me to buy her a retail store in the nearby village( I do the cooking ) and I operate part of the farm with 3 local employees with the time available.
However, I am not giving up, and neither should you,Eddie.
Thanks interesting. In terms of your micro bio-diesel setup, by any chance do you run also some more modern “common rail” diesel engines (trucks/tractors/gensets) with it? Usually people run two fuel circuits, they preheat injection nozzles few minutes on commercial diesel, then run the engine for the desired work load on bio fuel, and lastly before ending flush it with the clean diesel for a moment again. Obviously, plus the necessary array of filters and ext. preheaters in colder climate etc..
Craig
Good show. I’m not giving up either, no matter how silly anyone thinks I am.
Mr Moodle, thank you sharing you practical experience with us all and using your noodle.
As you can see, no response from Fast Eddy! He did not even say “thanks”
That is his trait…he is a real doomer gloomer and if it doesn’t suit his personal “likes”, he either ignores or ridicules.
Craig please share anymore practical insight, you may save a life!
Unfortunately, not Fast Rddy
Our comments must have passed each other in hyperspace…. enjoy my response.
I already know it….you’ll find SOME excuse why….been around types like your kind.
Can’t cut the mustard and find some reason not to.
Whaaa! Whaaa! The spent fuel rods….whaaa!….pleaaseee
I was thinking about Future Analyst’s comments last night …. how he/she drops onto FW and sees what is effectively a three ring circus….
On one hand we have clowns who do not read or do not understand Gail’s articles — posting utter rubbish …. over and over and over….
And on the other hand there is a core group that is trying to engage in meaningful discussion — who want to learn more about the situation from each other —- continuously being interrupted by absolute fools shouting the same nonsense day after day after day….
The fools could be treated as white noise… and ignored… but that would only encourage them… they’d be high and low fiving each other…. and more of them would pour onto FW to feed on the carcass…. eventually stripping it to the bone … leaving Gail posting her fine articles to be read and discussed by an audience resembling this …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xwsZ5vC5Oc
So what ends up happening is that the core has to continually attempt to drive off the Derek Zoolanders…. most of the energy of the core is wasted trying to hold the line against endless rubbish…
It is very much akin to a group of adults having a serious discussion being interrupted by screaming children who refuse to STF up. You can punish them… you can beat them…. you can even offer them another place to play … but none of these work for them — they insist on screaming madness over and over…. and in fact the more you try to drive them away… the more angry they get — the more incessant the screaming.
Not only does this degrade FW — it most definitely drives other serious people away from FW. People who no doubt have meaningful information and ideas to contribute….
How many John Galt’s are remaining in the mountain hide away —- not sharing their wisdom with us — because they refuse to argue with fools? They refuse to be part of a three ring circus?
It is been quite some time since CTG has posted…. I recall a hydro engineer popping in a few times to explain how ridiculous it was to believe that hydro plants could continue to operate post BAU – he posted a rather lengthy detailed response — then disappeared — we also had the woman from northern ontario (I forget her handle) who was regularly posted very useful insights into what was happening in her industry… there are others….many….
One wonders if they walk away because they refuse to be drawn into discussions that are constantly interrupted by screaming children.
Well, FE, sorry, but nobody said Doom would be easy. Perhaps your Koombayists perform the function of keeping your arguments razor sharp. Perhaps the reason so many serious people have the left the site is 1.) they have better things to do (like live for the now), 2.) they are sick of your constant metaphysical certitude, 3.) most intelligent people realize that there are many sides to a story and that no one can predict the future and that there are multifaceted predicaments that come with multifaceted responses. Otherwise, its just an echo chamber…chamber…chamber…chamber…
1. When BAU goes there will be no spare parts for any of this — and bit by bit it will fall to pieces. My solar powered pump busted a month after installation – I had to order a new motherboard from Germany — if that was my sole source of garden water post BAU — that would pretty much mean game over….
2. There will be zero energy available post BAU – try running your operation for a month without electricity or petrol – just to see what it will be like….
3. You do realize that in a world without much in the way of food you will essentially be sitting on a massive pile of gold — with no way to hide — with no means to defend it?
Quite frankly — this has to be one of the worst ideas if one wants to survive the holocaust.
If there were no spent fuel ponds — and I was serious about surviving — I would buy a large sail boat and supply it for a year at sea — or I would buy a barge – jam it with supplies — and another boat to haul it to a very remote calm sea — and just sit and wait…
Having thought this through — that is the only option that makes sense.
But because there are 4000 spent fuel ponds that are going to contaminate the planet — don’t get too hung up on making a bad decision —- we are all dead no matter what we do
fast eddie your vision of how this all plays out is extremely depressive but realistically correct the only thing that is up for discussion is how bau can continue to grow and for how much longer before the fat lady sings as for the constant tirade between yourself and the zoolanders keep it up it is great entertainment it is absolutely hilarious this morbid but fascinating website needs some comedy to cheer things up
Yes on this – i remember wondering why NZ’s richest man was investing in a couple of military size boats designed for rough waters … perhaps he is a finite worlder?
“It gives Hart two ships that are about the size of the Royal New Zealand Navy’s two frigates .. Hart’s new vessel, designed for long expeditions in rough waters, can accommodate 66 people and is reported to be equipped with a helicopter deck and hangar, plus space for five excursion boats.”
I wonder about these ultra rich guys with yachts — but particularly islands…
You would need security to ensure nobody lands on the island and takes what is yours…
Why wouldn’t the security team put the billionaire to the sword … and take control for themselves?
What exactly does an aging billionaire have to offer them post BAU?
the soldier caste stays on the side of whoever pays their wages
as any situation worsens, their wage demands rise
when those demands can no longer be met, they either leave or take over the wage source
What exactly does an aging billionaire have to offer them post BAU?
More hope or certainty than they would have when killing the host. If you kill the host – there is no new order… and if you survive until there is a new order – you don’t know.
http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11716144
Cuba’s Special Period is the model for end of BAU. Rationing, collective effort in a tropical climate.
We could still use coal for heat. Its gonna be all about cooperation should it come to pass.
Cuba is not a model – Cuba has always been plugged into BAU … Cuba has NEVER collapsed.
There will be no coal whatsoever post BAU – the easy coal is all burned up — the coal mines that remain including open pit will quickly flood when the electricity stops.
Yep, it will rhyme ~similarly in other parts of the world..
As we can see all around us, CBs + .govs + selected oligarchs are now evidently in sync to bring about new even crazier make believe regime of oppression, yet another mix of nationalization, cronyism and boots in our face. Although some global peripheries will likely rush into failed state status, others will be propped up by the scheme as long as deemed useful for extraction purposes.. But don’t expect anything more serious than occasional local riots in the core and semi core countries for the very next decades, the young are increasingly made docile and digital castrated to rise up against the neofeudals. As long as nuclear, natgas, and coal can keep the strategic infrastructure patched and somewhat running for the masters..
The financial instadoom argument is not correct, in fact the latest version of the old system sort of still resembling certain last traits of capitalism died after ~2008, now we are in transition into very nasty form of totalitarian reality with curtailed personal consumerism in relative terms, not to be surprised even some enclaves doing better for limited time. And for instance those proverbial kicked out car manuf workers, FE seems to be always so preoccupied with, will be just moved on other jobs in the shale extraction, railroad etc. or sit pretty at home with some token digital garbage/food/energy allowance. Perhaps only around 2025-2040 horizon will bring another wave of shocks to the system (now terminal) from deeper energy depletion and demographics thresholds.. Besides there is also still open some small chance of relative realignment in collapse ala (W/E) Roman-Byzantine Empire split, e.g. places like Russia endowed with natgas and nuclear breeders soldiering on, while the west and south goes to hell..
Sorry, you choose to bet on the wrong horse, the instadoom outcome has been always an outlier case, not confirming with other previous civilization collapses/reshuffles. For some reason I find very high correlation of instadoom persuasion with people of very shallow crosss generational doom experience. Lets say if your immediate ancestors of past several generations endured “each” near extinction situation due to wars, revolutions, famines, diseases, natural catastrophes.. the outlook on future is very different from many/most pampered westerners with comparatively “easy life” fast track for past several centuries..
Actually, FE and Gail refuse to bet. I’m willing to bet that it all goes bad during the summer of 2020.
I am with you Kurt. We are currently at the inflection point now. The US will not be recognizable come 2020.
Kurt – you do understand that betting – and winning — is pointless…
I guessed end of 2016… based on the facts at hand at the time…. I will be very pleased if I am wrong… I will be very pleased if those calling 2020 are wrong…
BAU Forever. Because once it’s gone… it will be fear and darkness and suffering
Eddy has been watching way too many movies!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=y5-IvQxVB1g
No. See, if you had bet me $1000 that it was the end of 2016, I would have won and you could have sent me the money. That’s kind of how bets work.
Doom is always “just two years away.” Check the FW archives. We’ve been predicting doom in two years for about 8 years now. Oops. Remember when we were all nattering on about how any rise in interest rates spelled instant doom. Well….we raised em last year and just raised them again yesterday. Doom? Calling all Doom? The problem with our site here is that its not Hollywood in the real world. Nothing ever happens all at once. Its catabolic. The system that we have built over the last 150 years, albeit fragile, is much stronger than people realize. It is networked, yes, but it also has many redundancies. It will fail, yes. But in stages, here and there, with resurgencies and then setbacks. Always down, yes, but not off a cliff. I’m giving it another 2 years then we’ll be screwed for sure.
How wonderful to see two Koombayaists agree on something that make zero sense. It is a special moment to be cherished
But Kurt… if collapse did happen at the end of 2016, Eddy would have won and you wouldn’t have been able to send him the money… not much point betting on the end of the world if you’re betting on an earlier date than your opponent…
That’s what makes it an interesting bet. If you are correct, you win but probably can’t collect. Still, you have the satisfaction of knowing you were correct. Of course, if you are incorrect, you have to pay up. So you see, not entirely pointless. FE’s point is that he is always correct, hence there is no point in betting because he wouldn’t be able to collect. But actually, he is not correct, pretty much knows it, knows he would have to pay, and refuses to bet because he would have to pay up.
This is what makes the site so hilarious. Although he’s not making any predictions now so I’m kind of missing the whole sky is falling thing three times a day.
There will be no satisfaction to be gained from being right about the world devolving into chaos, despair, suffering and death.
Actually the only fair way to do it would be for Kurt to send Eddy his share of the money in advance, so Eddy could keep it if he’s right. Then, if Eddy is wrong, he would return the $1,000 plus $1,000 for losing the bet.
Problem solved!
I’d prefer a case of toilet paper over money…. 🙂
I think FE would spend the grand on party supplies for the storage container and I’d never collect.
“digital castration” 🙂
I come from a country that has not been in war for 200 years, or other than very local famine in 100+ years. Still not an instadoomer.
If anything:
kids or in any way invested in the future = not instadoomer
no kids, no prepping, maybe religious = apocalypse (soon)
I don’t think we can use coal for heat, unless electric heating is already installed. In that case, coal could be used to provide the electricity, if the price of coal is high enough, and if oil can be found for shipping the coal to the electricity generating plants.
The issue would seem to be keeping the banks open. There are helpful for many things, including paying workers of many kinds.
Money will collapse without growth. Add to that the practice of fractional lending and you have an inverted pyramid Jenga game in play if any long term slow down occurs. The problem can be diguised by insta-issue of great gobs of nominal money, but longer term the systemic fault will crack the system. Yes, the banks are a major weak link in our present normal order of business!
The pyramids in Egypt are made of granite blocks. The blocks have been chiseled with bronze tools. Granite is harder than bronze. They also made statues and vases made of diorite. Diorite is harder than steel. No one has an answer to how they managed to this. Under one pyramid they found 40 thousand diorite vases. A group of massive granite sarcophagus had been made with precision of 16th of hair thickness, we cannot hardly do this today with computers and machines, every corner, angle and surface where perfectly made.
http://imgc.allpostersimages.com/images/P-473-488-90/27/2728/FBKND00Z/posters/kenneth-garrett-statue-of-diorite-pharaoh-khafre-with-falcon-god-horus-egyptian-museum-cairo-egypt.jpg
The overall pyramid itself is with a couple of MM tolerance. Amazing for a 465 foot high pile.
Whoever built this stuff was lifting phenomenal weights on a regular basis. Anti-gravity devices are theorised about. That’s why I enjoy reading books by Graham Hancock and Ivan Sanderson. But we can never know what went on. (Perhaps we should put Gail on the case). By time we’re on the brink of finding out, it will be our turn to disappear beneath the waves. There may still be time for another technological civilisation to arise after that.
Though this post is a great example of why I spend so little time here now there’s other reasons too.
Though I greatly respect many of the views expressed here – Gail’s especially of course – it feels as if every valid thing that can be said has been said many times over… and all too frequent d-rivel… why expose myself to it?
Ten years of reading collapse theory is perhaps enough for me now and I know my mind on it. I’m not very curious about the specific and mundane triggers that sink this boat anymore either as it seems a fruitless endeavour to keep up with the myriad possibilities. Why measure every crack in the plaster when you know there’s no mortar to be had at any price and your hands are chained to the floor? Neither does attacking the view of others or defending my own seem worthwhile or fun anymore (My most recent heckling adventures actually confirmed to me my own pettiness in the matter which puts to shame the ego-driven satisfaction of scoring debate points). In my own personal life I’ve been withdrawing from confrontation which has no beneficial purpose and it’s become time to transfer that to my time online. In fact the more I avoid the online world the better I feel. I’m usually down to about ten minutes screen-time a day now and it feels right.
the next step is holy orders
and a hermitage
I see the point … it is frustrating to have to deal with the DelusiSTANIS….. but my strategy is to think of this as a reality tee vee show…. the contestants are all vying for the title Village Idiot…
And it is my job to taunt and berate them…. driving them into a frenzy…. it keeps the ratings high
And because the contestants are all from DelusiSTAN they do not know what logic common sense or facts are …. so it is so easy to run them around the paddock as if they had rings through their noses…. they are easily befuddled ….. they are at a TREMENDOUS disadvantage….they do not understand this so they are easily angered… they lash out with the effectiveness of an over boiiled noodle…
Very much like a geriatric woman in diapers trying to punch the Great Ali….
It is not great sport…. but these DelusiSTANIS … these Village Idiots… they are tremendously amusing…..
You’re suffering (if that’s the right word) from collapse fatigue, online fatigue and probably from aggravation fatigue too. I make these maladies up so there’s no point googling them.
Collapse fatigue just means you’ve been contemplating the thing for so long that you’ve gotten tired of it, at least for the present.
I’ve never enjoyed confrontation. Debating ideas and opinions is great, but when people get upset and start taking these things personally and then reacting as if a difference of opinion was a physical threat, I can get quite jumpy. That’s why I try to avoid confrontation in principle. But then someone pulls one of my triggers and it’s ding dong, round one.
However, it can be a valuable training to let all the things that might be aggravating just wash over us and then to observe our mental and emotional reactions to them. If we’re content to do that, we may find the reactions diminishing in force and the exposure, even to what we might regard as d-rivel, becoming less of a negative experience and more like the sound of birdsong.
Hardness only matters for cutting, slicing through. Chiseling works great on hard crystalline materials. The bronze is probably pretty good at being smacked with a mallet into the granite or diorite, without being too stressed from the shock. I don’t think aliens or technology beyond our own is required.
Pretty amazing!
the stones were cut with human muscle power, it is possible to see half cut stones still in quarries, in Egypt, and similarly in the mountains of South wales where the Stonehenge stones were cut.
No sign of aliens.
The Aztec and the Inca followed the same stone bashing procedure, though a bit later.
As I understand it, a lot of stone was cut by bashing a harder stone against it, and heat hardened copper, not bronze, at least in the early building.
Tomb building in Egypt was essentially a job creation scheme, they didn’t have money, everyone was paid by food stipend. You used “excess” to buy “excess”—just as we do.
So you used your “life excess” to pay for your “afterlife” via a tomb, which might take your lifetime to construct.
Just like our pension schemes now. You paid into the building of your tomb to guarantee life hereafter.
Everybody believed in the system, just as we do—it was the ultimate pyramid scheme.
As long as everybody believed in it–the system worked fine
Food energy came out of the ground—fed muscle—bashed stones and dug up gold—gold got buried again in a hole in the ground
Sounds like Fort Knox come to think of it.
utterly pointless—except for the top of the pyramid I suppose.
The Great Adventure
We are the lucky ones. We are the ones who will be blessed with the opportunity to witness the end of human civilization and the extinction of humanity. We will be the ones who will experience the full potential of human madness, fear, violence and brutality.
As opposed to those who think the Great Adventure — ie Little House on the Prairie — begins with the end of BAU….
Oh to be able to see the looks on their faces when they realize it ain’t what they expected
Certainly, the greatest potential of human civilization, and the longest life expectancies. We will see how the rest plays out.
Artleads
Romans where perhaps the first ones who built roads on a large scale. Their solution for maintenance was to plant olive trees next to the roads and give the olive trees to people and the income from them in exchange for maintenance of the roads.
Your idea has been tested and it worked fine… at least for the Roman empire.
Great info! Reposted on the NBL forum under the Land Use thread.
FE, somebody made you idea of digging holes real !! (without credit, though)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXFvatgL20M&cid=1481560191911-388
https://holidayhole.com/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-11/saudi-minister-jolts-oil-market-with-whatever-it-takes-moment
“Al-Falih showed he was deadly serious about finally fixing the global oil market.” – fixing the global oil market = making the price of oil go up. Be interesting to see how hard the global economy crashes when the prices go up perhaps demand will be reduced to match supply then LOL.
It seems Saudis are starting to enjoy “cuts”
I suppose T. Rex is happy as well
The deflationary view is just wrong, it assumes the Fed is the only agent in the financial world
Well the Saudi’s are in a conundrum for sure. They need the revenue but, are maxed out production wise. They have no other exports of value. The price of oil is not going up on its own because all the OPEC producers are pumping flat-out to make the money. Reducing supply to boost prices may initially work, then demand collapses. Not a pretty picture.
Not pretty, that’s for sure
One thing that shocked me is the fact the Saudi Arabia is creating value-added aluminum parts (importing blocks of refined aluminum and making parts out of it), apparently using the heavy subsidy of natural gas (or oil) to make this process cost competitive.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-22/mideast-aluminum-producers-filling-gap-after-u-s-plants-closed
The deflationary view assumes that there is less and less benefit from fossil fuels and other energy sources. This is related to oil supply not ramping up at cheap enough cost of supply. It doesn’t have anything to do with the Fed, except that the Fed discontinuing QE and raising interest rates led to other currencies falling, making it harder for those countries to afford oil. The other countries have been trying to fix the problem, but they can’t succeed.
Inventories may already be down to some extent, given how much prices for ships used for storage has fallen.
http://teekay.com/investors/teekay-tankers-ltd/market-insights/
http://www.lloydslistintelligence.com/llint/tankers/baltic-index.htm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-25/for-tanker-owners-shrinking-oil-glut-is-least-of-their-worries
It is hard to know though, because more ships are being added to inventory.
Trump picks Scott Pruitt (anti environment/pro big oil) to lead (dismantle) the EPA:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/07/us/politics/scott-pruitt-epa-trump.html?_r=1
There is no alternative to oil, coal and NG. They must be extracted and burned no matter how dirty to keep BAU alive – environment be damned. I have to somewhat agree with Pruitt that if we are to keep the energy flowing we will have to sacrifice something and looks like the environment will be the lamb.
Here is an interesting quote from a comment on this NYT article and is a good example of the disillusion thinking that “alternative energy sources” are “limitless” and somehow solar PV and wind turbine production produces zero toxic by-products:
“Coal, oil and natural gas (and, to a lesser degree, nuclear) are all present on this planet in finite quantities and all produce byproducts that are toxic for humans as well as the planet we live on. It only makes sense to develop alternative energy sources like wind, solar, tidal and geothermal that are limitless and produce basically zero toxic byproducts.”
Teaming with the Russians to produce a final shot of energy into the arm of the world economy?
a politician’s job is like any other
the most important thing is to keep it—we all have bills to pay.
if a politician stands up and tells the truth—that the future has no ”growth” and ”you’re all screwed” he’ll be out—and someone put in who’s lies are more acceptable
not good news for the planet, but that’s the way things are.
hence we can now look forward to one of the biggest liars in history, and he his gathering about him as many people as possible to admire his new clothes
I agree. If reducing regulations and allowing more pollution makes energy extraction economic – so it will be.
Yes, teaming with the Russians, that’s how it looks like
Somehow, the EPA needs to go in a different direction, if there is any hope of continuing at all. So Scott Pruitt may not be that bad a choice.
It is amazing what people will believe about wind/solar.
Hi Gail,
They are waking up to the reality of intermittent renewables, even in the UK.
This is a somewhat parochial paper, but supports what we all know…http://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2016/12/CCACost-Dec16.pdf
Good numbers and facts, best to just ignore the domestic political sniping !!
best regards
Mel
>
After enough years, the real story starts becoming obvious, no matter how much the false story has been sold to the public.
‘We can ignore reality, but we cannot ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.’
Great post as we’ve come to expect of you Gail, we’d be really lost w/out you! Sramana Mitra said the same in her Future- End of Capitalism http://bit.ly/2hfMybJ … Is convergent evolution not when several voices point in the same direction? Keep’ on postin’ (as in: keep’on truckin’)
Thanks! I can see that Sramana Mitra doesn’t see the energy portion of the story, but she does understand the increasingly hierarchical nature of the economy under capitalism. In her view, the current system cannot progress for more than 30-50 years in the current direction, without reaching a wealth redistribution limit. Even if a universal basic income is implemented, there will be no point in making goods above the basic level that can be afforded by nearly all.
“Fast Eddy Challenge… anyone… anyone?
Who wants to agree to feel a tree with an axe.. split it … and haul the wood to the shed? No cheating — no chainsaw…
Anyone? Volunteers? Gold medal to anyone who gives this a go….
I see no hands… absolute … silence…. (fear?)”
The lack of response might be due to others finding this “challenge” quite childish. Few people want to give away something they have and like, so the question is not interesting. Let your thought fly, Eddy, here’s a few lines to ponder: “I had some things and was happy. Now these things are no longer there, but I’m not unhappy, because something else makes me happy.”
Here’s you answer to that one
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NiV75x6Znjs
“Here’s you answer to that one”
Some sees vital knowledge in Hollywood films, I don’t.
Some sees vital knowledge in Hollywood films, I don’t
Neither do I,…Cheif Dan George was the real deal
Chief Dan George, OC (July 24, 1899 – September 23, 1981) was a chief of the Tsleil-Waututh Nation, a Coast Salish band whose Indian reserve is located on Burrard Inlet in the southeast area of the District of North Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. He was also an actor, poet and author; his best-known written work was “My Heart Soars”.[1] As an actor, he is best remembered for portraying Old Lodge Skins opposite Dustin Hoffman in Little Big Man (1970), for which he was nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor.
During his acting career, he worked to promote better understanding by non-aboriginals of the First Nations people. His soliloquy, Lament for Confederation,[7] an indictment of the appropriation of native territory by white colonialism, was performed at the City of Vancouver’s celebration of the Canadian centennial in 1967.[8] This speech is credited with escalating native political activism in Canada and touching off widespread pro-native sentiment among non-natives
There is more to see and understand
It is beyond most peoples physical capabilities to fall trees for a cord of wood with a chainsaw, cut it into pieces with a chainsaw, haul it home with a truck,and to split it with a gas powered hydraulic splitter. I do it but it takes all I have. Getting tired with a buzzsaw in your hand is somewhat problematic. If you think FE challenge is a joke do it with combustion engines then evaluate whether you could do it without. I could not.
I did it once with a small tree. Problem is, you get really tired with an axe. After about an hour, you are done. Took me about three weeks. I thought of it as my exercise for the day. I still think the only viable option is a ton of canned goods and an underground bunker in an area that is not on cleared land. Just stay down there for a year or so. That’s what the military is planning.
Yeah, before chainsaws etc there were no laughter, no love, no nothing but misery and pain. Before man didn’t live, they just existed.
Ah I see because I describe my real life experience I am anti love and endorse misery and pain. Ideas have no substance without implementation.
Most just like to talk…. rather than walk… because they know if they walk … they will realize the futility of it all…. and they cannot handle that….
not sure if you were being ironic
but broadly speaking yes.
if you were lucky to be born into the landed classes—you had a fairly easy life, but even that didn’t proof you against disease.
If you were not, then your life was unpleasant and short—you worked for those who owned the land under some form of fiefdom. You were dead at 50. As an energy resource you were played out
laws were enacted to make sure you stayed in your born position—-yes the exceptional elevated themselves, but that was very unusual. There was the death penalty for theft of items of trifling value and no say in government.
Step out of line and you could be executed in short order
all forms of shelter and the means of building shelter, the basic means of survival, were owned by the priveleged classes, as was all the land, thus your means of existence depended on someone’s goodwill towards you. (google Scottish and Irish clearances)
Here in the UK private ownership of entire villages is still not unusual, it used to be the norm
My fear is that just existing will be better than what lie ahead.
There was a lot of singing of “work songs”. Review the movie “Cool Hand Luke”.
Huskyvv-
Processing wood is not for the faint of heart. But if you live near the woods a log arch and crosscut saw that you know how to sharpen makes it doable for a fit individual. I bucked about a third of a cord (4x4x8) in fairly short order last week. I’ve got 12 cord to buck, and I will be hauling a lot off windfall stuff home with the arch as I get time just to make sure I can do it. You can also buck it in the woods and haul it home in a sleigh.
“I bucked about a third of a cord (4x4x8) in fairly short order last week. ”
Kudos to you! You are in better shape than I am. How many cords do you use a winter? No fossil fuels used at all in the harvest?
Huskyvv-
I burn about six to seven cords a year and, up until recently, had it delivered in eight foot lengths. I used to use the chain saw, but, as we talk about here all the time, a saw is useless without fuel. So I bought five crosscut saws and discovered that they really do work well and you do get conditioned to it. I’m not concerned with having a chainsaw anymore and splitting with the axe is something I’ve done my whole life. My biggest concern then was getting the wood to my door. I’m blessed with plenty of great woods all around me and my own land. The log arch you can look up is from a company called Logrite. It is the junior model. It works well. Kind of slow going but if there is no fuel available I will have plenty of time on my hands!
‘ I will have plenty of time on my hands!’
You may consider reading some books about pioneer life in Canada — there was a really good one that I read a few years ago but for the life of me I cannot recall the name and it is packed away in a box …
The family depicted in the book of course lived without electricity and petrol…. they worked hard from morning till night …. there was never enough time in the day …. they suffered – particularly in the winter — they frequently were on the verge of starvation —- as were their neighbours…
Ultimately the father was able to get a job with the Canadian government and they moved into the nearby town — and away from the grim life as homesteaders…
Reading this book (and a few others) was one thing that killed off the Koombaya spirit in me — these hardened experienced families were on the edge all the time…. and they did not have to deal with the chaos of the collapse of the world…. and they were surrounded by others who had the same skills….there did not have people showing up asking to be fed…. they did not have to deal with violence….
I realized I was kidding myself thinking it would all be so Little House on the Prairie…. it was absolutely unworkable… in fact it was ridiculous.
Keeping in mind I was raised in Northern Ontario and spend plenty of time in the bush as a kid… so I am not exactly a feeble city dweller who thinks a weekend camping trip with all the gear would be considered roughing it….
Seeing as nobody is willing to take the full Challenge — what you might do is pick up some books on pioneer life in places like Canada …
I would not recommend reading books or listening to stories from elderly people about what life was like in rural Canada when they were young…. there is nobody alive who understands what life was like pre BAU…. they were well and truly plugged in by the 1920’s …. you cannot compare that with the age before petroleum came into popular use….
You’d want to check books from the early to mid 1800’s…
Rubber boots are a fossil fuel… shovels… rakes…
How do you irrigate – do you have a gravity supply — if so the pipes and fittings are fossil fuels…. — or does your water come via the tap… pumps and electricity are fossil fuels….
If any people do live to other side of a large die off I expect for a long time they would just have to look around for things to make use of. After they wear everything out I they will have to figure it out. I’m not trying to guarantee the perpetuation of the human species here! In my 16 years of growing I have rarely had to water. A little bit just to get the seeds to germinate but we have pretty reliable moisture. I do have gravity feed supply if needed and don’t use tillers or anything that requires fuel or power but my own. I realize tools are essential to life in the northern climates. Files would be the biggest problem when it comes to tools I think.
Joe, I just checked out “crosscut saw” on Amazon.
And I found they are “currently unavailable”.
You may have caused a run on them.
I’ve used a chainsaw to harvest wood for the past 20 years. Although they are very efficient, I’ve never liked the noise and vibration. Also, hand-sawing is a good aerobic exercise. So as the years go by, more and more I tend to save the chainsaw for the really fat trunks and use handsaws for anything less than 6 inches across.
Tim-
That would be funny if I did but all my saws are vintage that I picked up locally and on Kijiji.
You are right that it is good exercise and they rip right through that smaller stuff.
It is much easier to carry out intense labour or exercise… when one has access to the unlimited calories provided by BAU….
Eddy, that’s true up to a point, as long as you don’t translate those unlimited calories into unlimited stores of body fat. It would be a lot of fun to see Michael Moore performing as a lumberjack, for instance.
Try all of this and all other tasks related to operating your household for a month – but without electricity and petrol.
Walk to the breaker now — and shut it off… I mean right now — because that is how it is going to happen…. you will not know when it is coming. One minute you will have lights the next you wont
No fridge… no washing machine… no lights… absolutely no electricity
Do not use any petrol for the month — you do everything manually.
And since this is a dry run … do not eat anything that you do not grow or kill … no cheating … no cans of food … nothing from the cupboard…
I do not understand why nobody is willing to try this — surely you would want to identify the weak areas of your game — and use BAU to improve your chances — while BAU still exists?
For example canning — you may have not thought about seals —- you may have forgotten that Walmart wont exist… this is your chance to have an ah ha moment… and make a note to self after the month to head to walmart and buy 100kg of paraffin wax…
What about ammo? Do you have enough to last the rest of your life? Because there will be no way to get more…. ever.
I could cut down a tree with a saw… and pile it in the wood shed… and I could then go back and take a hot shower… grab a cold one from the fridge… watch Madame Fast cook me a great meal with food from the shop cooked on the gas range… I could open a bottle of wine…. and regale Madame Fast with how I cut the tree by hand…
And she’d say — and what’s your point?
What you’re saying is bizarre. I’m not a strong person, but I have cut a couple of trees with a hand saw.
Anyway, for cooking in a rocket stove it’s up to sticks, no branchs nor trunks
“What you’re saying is bizarre.” Really . How so? I too have cut a couple of trees with a hand saw. I have also heated with wood for many years and am familiar with the amount of effort it takes to fall trees, cut the trees into pieces, load them into a pickup. unload them from the pickup, split them , and debark them. Why characterize my statement as “bizaare” ? Do you cook with a rocket stove? Do you heat with a rocketstove?
What I find bizarre is that simple statements of fact result in characterizations. The FE challenges are example of how hard things that are taken for granted are very hard without fossil fuels. Talk is cheap.
It’s not really cold here, need a little heating or just more clothes. I do cook in a rocket stove some times, and I know some people use it to heat homes. They work with sticks, I don’t even use a saw to get them, just my hands !!
Talk is cheap… be it to present things easier than they are or harder than they are
I suppose you are right. The average individual would have no problem cutting and splitting enough wood to survive in a cold climate with hand tools, I have a question. When I am falling beetle kill to put in my wood for the year should I use this product? I wouldnt want to offend the coyotes.
Congratulations you have cut a tree…
Now try doing every other daily task you will need to survive – without electricity or petrol
Start with washing your clothes by hand….
As for defending a farm… as I have pointed out previously … farmers ran for the castle when the invaders were spotted….
Alas there will be no castles — there will be relatively few individuals with their families living on their permie operations — and the hordes will be coming for them
In fact the soldiers and policemen will not only not help them — they will be the ones to turn their guns on them
You really have trouble with common sense and logic for some reason ….
Back when our older son was about one year old, I remember selling a house in the suburbs the very first day the house was on the market. We had placed an offer on a townhouse under construction, but it wouldn’t be ready for another 60 days. We ended up putting our furniture in storage, and moving to a furnished two bedroom apartment. I remember finding the experience freeing. There was no longer the big house to think about, or the yard. (In fact, our townhouse didn’t require yard care either.) We could walk around outside on the sidewalks of the apartment complex. Having less was in some ways more–at least, less commitments to upkeep.
Within 24-48 hours of shtf people living in metropolitan areas will be trapped.
Could be, if people in the outlying areas down’t want the city folks visiting. But even the outlying areas aren’t very self sufficient, if they are simply factory farms that depend on antibiotics to keep a large number of animals alive, or grow a single crop.
FE,
How many people live within 500 kms of your farm. You are making an assumption that roads will be navigable after collapse. Where I live in South Africa the first thing that happens during any sign of disruption is the locals barricade all main transport routes in order to loot anything moving. What good is a tank of gas in this type of scenario?
500,000+
But there would be around 7000 who could walk here within two hours.
The thing is…
I have a very large garden — an 80 tree orchard — but I there is no way in hell I could feed 4 people year round on what I produce… even if I were to can —(I have 1000+ canning jars + thousands of spare lids there is no way to put away enough….
I live in a Mediterranean climate … I can grow Brassicae in the winter… but cannot harvest till spring…
I have chickens — but chickens lay virtually no eggs if you don’t feed them proper food — if the peck the ground for insects you get next to nothing out of them … I recently tried an experiment as I was replacing my chickens … I cracked most of them in the head with a shovel — but kept a few and did not feed them …. they pecked the ground for a month or so…. giving us one or two eggs… then they died.
Compost is also an issue — when people are hungry they eat animals … so no manure…. also as previously stated animals get sick and die … most cattle and sheep here are drenched for parasites… no drench … they generally will die….
There are wild pigs in the bush — and sometimes deer… I have thousands of rounds of high powered ammo …
My neighbour’s kids shoot the deer and pigs sometimes… but if you shoot at animals regularly in your immediate vicinity they quickly realize this is a danger zone … and they avoid it….
And if you regularly head into the nearby bush to shoot them the further they will go into the bush to avoid the kill zone…
An interesting anecdote — there are loads of deer in NZ – they are considered pests and the government poisons them — you can go out and shoot as many as you can find — you can just leave the carcasses in the bush if you want … some people only take the choice cuts and leave the rest….
However in my two years here I have never seen a wild deer — in Canada you will see them on the road side quite frequently …. but when hunting season starts you will almost never see a deer in Canada…. because they know to avoid the kill zones…
The reason you never see a deer on the road side here is because it is hunting season 365 days a year…. they always fear humans… they stay away from kill zones.
So sure I could use all that ammo to kill dear — I could walk the entire day into the bush looking for one …
There are only so many hours in a day — and when you don’t have BAU slaves washing the clothes — chopping and splitting trees by hand … dragging them to the wood pile…. the list goes on … the task list is endless…
My point is that the 500k do not matter — all it would take is a few neighbours to show up and ask me to feed them —- and it’s game over…. it is not possible ….
And they will show up … asking …. and many others will show up — demanding….
What do I do – shoot my neighbours?
What about the strangers — most people here have rifles…. if I do not share they will take — that is guaranteed… they will be into the gardens at night … they will be into our storage…. they will be into the wood shed taking wood to keep warm….
I put a lot of effort and cash into this setup —- and then chinks in the armour started to become obvious to me — and I concluded there was no way this was going to work out….
I concluded that the chances were not only low – they were zero. Absolutely zero.
I continue with the garden because I enjoy that work …. but I am under no illusions…
Then I began my lengthy research into the spent fuel ponds….
And that just reinforced my earlier conclusions….. when BAU goes …. I will soon be dead.
Now for the happy ending! Everyone LOVES a happy ending….
20 foot container filled with wine, whiskey, and other food for the end of world party. I am making contact with John Key to see if he would like to attend…. on the condition that he pays for the strippers.
Fast Eddy, enough of what you can’t do…tell us all what you CAN do to survive and live!
Funny thing about the unknown….its not the fear of the future that frightens us….after all it can be a wonderful experience…it is the fear of losing the known….
Fit all that in that 20 foot container of yours….Doah!
Here’s a little doomstead tip for you. Hang on to a few chickens and when you see their wattles turning from bright red to black you know that radioactive cloud has arrived and it’s time to get that solar powered disco ball and party going!
I won’t be waiting for death on the gentle breeze to start the party … as soon as the power goes off… the party kicks off.
There won’t be much else to do at that point…. no internet… no phones… nothing… the end will begin
I suppose I’d never wrote a single word here if I had no kid
Most of all, because the bottleneck involves killing kids, not only their parents… And I can only imagine doing this in order to save another kid, mine
I can imagine a father attempting to kill me to get at my container… so that his children could eat.
In fact I expect it.
We all have it in us. It just takes the right trigger to release The Beast.
What will happen after the collapse of energy supplies is a return to natural selection. Survival of the fittest will be the new normal. The types of people that can survive in such a brutal environment will likely be some pretty nasty people. If you are the type that cares about others, you won’t make it. If you are prone to illness, you won’t make it. If you balk at rape, killing, torture or abuse you won’t make it. The real question for me is would I want to make it?
Craig
I think you just painted the exact picture of the future, without resorting to hysteria, false hopes, economic ”downsizing” or any of the other nonsense we read plastered across the doomster (or conventional) media.
Where you are—that is “now”.
Scary or what?
There will be two prime trigger points
1 petrol stations drying up
2 supermarkets emptying
Once that happens, (more or less simultaneously ), then it really is SHTF time. And it won’t be gradual
Yeah #2 is a deal killer for sure. That would be panic mode even if people weren’t really hungry yet. That’s when things get really interesting. The people will still have the energy to commit horrible unspeakable acts of violence to secure “their” food. I have a feeling that the more advanced and complex countries(like the USA) would react more quickly and more irrationally than countries that are already impoverished. I can’t explain why I feel this way though. It is just an intuition I have. Kind of along the lines of “the bigger they are the harder they fall” paradigm.
Telegraph: “Britain facing energy crisis that could see families pay extra to keep the lights on, Ofgem executive says”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/11/britain-facing-energy-crisis-could-could-see-families-pay-extra/
“Mr Wright, who Ofgem last night insisted was speaking in a “personal capacity” appeared to lay blame to any future supply issues on the recent focus on renewable energy. He said: ‘The system we are all familiar with has some redundancy built into it. It was pretty straightforward and there was a supply margin, but increasing intermittency from renewable energy is producing profound changes to this system.’ “
Interesting, but in a way bizarre. According to the article, “He [Wright] warned that in future richer customers will be able to “pay for a higher level of reliability” while other households are left without electricity.”
I see the electric grid as the weak link in keeping our current electricity system together. (Another weak link: keeping fossil fuel prices high enough, so that there is adequate fuel.) How in the world does Ofgen executive Wright plan to have two different grid systems operating simultaneously, in such a way that a rich customer can pay more than a poorer customer, for a different level of service? Or perhaps there is a switch at each home, built into the electric transmission.
“perhaps there is a switch at each home,”
Technically, that’s not hard to do. In fact, it has been done already in some places. More than ten years ago you could get a lower rate if you agreed to power cuts at peak load. Which, of course, happened on the hottest day of the year. After the first time this happened, a lot of people on the program went back to regular electric rates.
You are right. We do this all the time, with a single grid. But we do need to maintain that grid.
It’s called load shedding and it is set up to drop customers in a specific pattern.
I realize this. It is already being applied to industrial customers. In theory, it could also be applied to commercial (stores and offices) and home customers. To get enough total volume, I would expect that it would need to be applied to both commercial and home customers.
Back in the early 1950s, industrial electricity accounted for over half of US electricity. It is now down to a little less than 26% of total retail electricity consumption. In kWh, industrial electricity consumption in 2015 was very close to that in 1990. This flat behavior to some extent reflects manufacturing moving elsewhere. Total electricity consumption has been flat since 2007, partly reflecting the effect of conservation efforts, LED screens for computers, and energy saving light bulbs.
I’ve been wondering what life will be like post-collapse. The best way to do this is to look at history. I can cheerfully conclude that modern technology has made us very lazy indeed, and we used to be capable of far more without it. Just look at what Wikipedia has to say about the Great Pyramid of Giza:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Pyramid_of_Giza
“It is believed the pyramid …was constructed over a 20-year period. The mass of the pyramid is estimated at 5.9 million tonnes. The volume, including an internal hillock, is roughly 2,500,000 cubic metres (88,000,000 cu ft). Based on these estimates, building the pyramid in 20 years would involve installing approximately 800 tonnes of stone every day. Additionally, since it consists of an estimated 2.3 million blocks, completing the building in 20 years would involve moving an average of more than 12 of the blocks into place each hour, day and night.”
So, we have nothing to worry about. Nay, I jest. On the contrary, it leaves me open to the “pre-ancient civilisation” theory, for want of a better phrase – i.e. a civilisation that pre-dated the ancients that we know about. The theory goes that some catastrophe – perhaps even a nuclear war, which triggered the Great Flood – wiped out a highly advanced technological civilisation. In any case, the myth of a Great Flood is found around the world, so it is posited that this civilisation existed pre-flood and probably built the pyramids and all the other megaliths and monoliths. Some have noted that the Great Pyramid appears to have strange sonic qualities that were perhaps part of some unknown (to us) technology. These are just theories, of course. But when you consider that the version touted by Wikipedia, above, represents the standard version believed today, I can only say that I am not so credulous.
I am not so sure history repeats or rhymes in this case…
We have 7.4+ billion people on the planet who are artificially fed due to oil… none of us … not even most Permies.. have the slightest clue how to survive with BAU…
I have a couple of neighbours who say they are mostly self-sufficient …. they buy almost nothing from the shops…(spices, coffee, chocolate – non-necessities) …..
BUT…
When you drill down … a clearer picture emerges…. when it comes to control of weeds in the garden ‘oh well sometimes you have to spray’ …. when it comes to water ‘we collect roof water and we pump it’ ….when it comes to compost ‘we make our own but that’s not enough for the large gardens so we pick up compost from the hop farms in our truck – it’s really cheap!’ … the list goes on…
These are multi-generational farmers — they know what they are doing…. yet they would never attempt the Fast Eddy Challenge…
Because it would break them…
For those who think the 7.4B+ people will just lay down and die when the grocery stores empty … let’s think that through…
How much food does the average person have on hand? A few weeks? Probably no more than a month…
Mr DNA is going to take over rather quickly when he looks at the cupboard and understands that his quest for continued immortality is threatened….
Is he going to tell the host – give up — eat the last box of Kraft Dinner boiled over the burning sofa… and die?
I doubt it.
He’s going to refocus the brain of the host — polluted by thoughts of Likes and reality teevee — like it has never been focused before — the serious of the situation is going to register — the frivolous bul.sh.it will be discarded …and the primordial drive to survive is going to take over…
The primary directive is going to be to FEED…. the mind will begin to chatter away like a super computer — where is the food — think — think — THINK
Grocery stores … already looted… neighbours — take hand gun from drawer …. act…
Countryside… organic farms …. take gun from drawer … get in car…. act…
Cousin Henry …. on the remote farm… take gun from drawer… get in car….act…
Cold …. see smoke from chimney in the distance… take gun from drawer…get in car… act…
Only a few cans of food left … last package of Kraft Dinner.. lie down and die? NOOOOOO!!! Panic — fear — desperation …. ‘whatever it takes’
Kill a dog… eat it… kill a cat… eat it…
No more animals left to kill… because everyone is eating dogs and cats and cows and chickens…
What now — Mr DNA relentless commands MUST survive…
Young child… easy prey… hunt…. kill…. eat…
When the veneer of civilization is stripped off — what is left but 7.4+ billion of the most violent … cunning …. predators…. the most dangerous animals ever to walk the earth will be hunting….
No matter where you are — they will find you …. if there is food where you are … they will come to you …
Your islands of supposed self-sufficiency (really???) will be like the light that attracts the flies…
You won’t last a week.
Imagine a large ship…. filled with grain … washes up on an island with a dozen rats living in it… the rats get into the ship…. gorge on the grain … and soon there are thousands of rats….
The grain runs out…
Fast-
For every member of the household an AR-15, a pistol, training, and crates full of ammo. Sure somebody might get us but they will know they were in a fight.
It is impossible to defend a farm — you must tend the fields….
And how does one ‘defend’ crops…. hungry people will raid the gardens at night … even if you wanted to defend your food supply how would you see them?
Trying to survive post BAU even if you were left alone — would be a monumental struggle….
Good to see that FE is filled with that good old Xmas spirit! Two weeks to go – warm up the turkey. Now, can we pleeeese have some FE predictions for the coming year? Maybe a chart or graph under the tree as well?
Fast-
If I lived to the point that I had a farm going it would only be because my friends and family worked together to get to that point. Security would obviously be something we would have to be successful at to make it but I’m not terribly worried about hungry people coming at night and I expect if they can see enough to raid a garden in the dark they would be noticeable. I’ll go out to mine tonight and ask one of the young fellows if he thinks he could pick me off;-)
Honestly, I don’t think there is enough agriculture done here or much else to interest waves of hungry raiders coming from long distances or the city. One winter will end the waves. But yes, it would be a monumental struggle to survive if you were left alone. Looking over my shoulder waiting to be shot at any time would not help much.
Could you put this in a graph please? I don’t understand….
Will a picture do?
http://c8.alamy.com/comp/D989FY/kentish-agricultural-workers-attacking-a-farm-at-night-c1830-ricks-D989FY.jpg
In many respects you’re truly naive…
Farms have been defended for thousands of years… ´What you’re saying makes no sense
you misunderstand the scale of the problem
an area of land, of whatever size, can produce a fixed amount of energy—that might be grain, meat, trees and so on—the actual product can vary.—but it represents energy availability.
if that area of land needs to be defended, then it must produce sufficient energy from within it’s borders to feed workers and soldiers. plus non producers of course—old people–children etc
if the threat is small—workers can also be defenders
if the threat it great, then you need full time soldiers.—and weapons.
Those weapons have to be acquired from somewhere.
if the opposing side has access to more and better weapons, then your defended area will collapse.
This rule will apply to a farmhouse or a city
if the threat is massive and imminent, then the soldiers need total support in resources.
if the resources are not available then the defended area will succumb
thus if the roman army came by your place around 150ad—as they did where i’m sitting right now,
and wanted your family pig and cow, and your womenfolk for entertainment and you for slave labour, there would have been very little you could have done about it—your plot didnt produce sufficient energy to defend itself
armies of people coming out of cities will be on the same scale
Thanks for explaining this Norman.
Further — in Europe at least — my recollection from reading a bit of history — was that when invaders showed up — the farmers ran as fast as they could to get to the castle — before the gates were slammed shut in their faces…
If they didn’t make it they’d either be requisitioned to feed the troops — if they refused they’d be put to the sword —- and the women were frequently used for ‘entertainment’
And even further…. the above mentioned invaders were not generally starving hordes who were invading specifically to obtain food …. although they certainly pillaged along the way…
When BAU ends — there will be very little food — so the invaders will be honing in on crops and stored food….
You absolutely will not be able to defend your farm against this — there will be too many — many of them will be armed — no doubt many will have military experience — many of them will be vicious criminals — all will be desperate.
What are you going to do – stay up night and day fending off the hordes with your shotgun?
Good luck with that.
It’s you, Norman, who misunderstand the scale of the situation
Roman army won’t show anywhere, unless it’s Argentinean army (but I’m not sure about that, I’ve talked about it with a retired high official…)
As it has always happened in history, biggest fish will eat the smaller, plain and simple
The biggest system (organised community/”army”) that will be will prevail. 100 thousand armed but unorganised people/zombies will never prevail, because they are not a political entity. As Van Kent and 44 said, it’s a matter of organisation. In fact, you’ll never run out of soldiers, because you’ll have plenty of zombies to hire
That’s all
Except if you read Secular Cycles, the prime reason for choosing land for farms after collapse was how easy it was to defend these farms. Thus, farms were put on tops of hills, where they could easily be defended; not in valleys, with thick fertile soil for crops.
Keeping in mind … they never had to defend against hordes of starving, desperate people.,…
Keep in mind….those attempting assault farms on hill tops were not armed with high powered rifles… and automatic assault weapons…..
A decent shot could pick off a farmer going about his business… from a few hundred yards without raising a sweat…
Another enormous obstacle here would be the one of friends and family showing up — along with neighbours.
When they knock at the door — do you greet them with blasts from both barrels of your 12 gauge shotgun?
A survival of the Estonia ship that sank said that a chip activated in his head… survival at any cost. Afterwards he felt remorse for what he had to do to survive. He never said what he had done… but one could see in his face that it must have been what ever it takes.
I think we will find we are amazed at what atrocities we are capable of…. when survival is at stake…
The beast is about to be re-awakened….
Add hunger, guns, and no security — and replace the shops with Permie organic gardens….. to get a feel for what the end of BAU will look like….
Why the 1977 Blackout Was One of New York’s Darkest Hours
uly 13, 1977: New York City endures a 25-hour blackout after lightning strikes power lines, prompting widespread arson, looting, and riots
The blackout that hit New York on this day, July 13, in 1977 was to many a metaphor for the gloom that had already settled on the city. An economic decline, coupled with rising crime rates and the panic-provoking (and paranoia-inducing) Son of Sam murders, had combined to make the late 1970s New York’s Dark Ages.
Don’t Read More (if you prefer to remain in your cocoon) http://time.com/3949986/1977-blackout-new-york-history/
So imagine this scenario across your nation…. the cities are looted…. and no food remains…. where would the looter go next?
On a road trip! A tank of gas can get propel most vehicles well over 500km…. how many people live within 500km of your farm?
Then of course there are the people who live in the small towns…. near you…. who are faced with starvation … where will they go?
To where they know the food is… of course!
Then you have relatives — you know — those people who came by the farm last Christmas — who enjoyed the preserves… and the free range chicken eggs… who saw the large gardens — who remarked ‘it must be wonderful to grow your own food’
Now when Mr DNA kicks in … when the pantry is bare ….. what will be the first thing that comes to the minds of cousin Joe…. and auntie Emma….
Will they wonder who would have won Dancing With Stars or the Super Bowl if collapse had not pre-empted these important events?
NNNNOOOOooooooo! They will not give s hit about any of this frivolous crap….
Come on Permies… what will be the first thing to cross the minds of all those dozens of relatives who live within a tank of petrol of your farm????
Why…. let’s go to Uncle Permies!!!! He has lots of food!!!
And they’ll pile into the station wagon … fill it up with some blankets and the rest of their Kraft Dinner…. and they’ll head out on the highway …. singing If you’re happy and you know it…. the kids will shriek ‘Are we There Yet? I am Hungry’
And they’ll pull up to Uncle Permie’s front door and announce – Hi Uncle Permie — sorry for arriving without an invitation … but … the kids are HUNGRY. Can we get some preserves… and eggs…. have you got anything else? Afterall … we are family … and we are HUNGRY.
And that’s when Uncle Permie — who reads FW —- says to himself….
That god dam Fast Eddy was right…. I have wasted the last 10 years of my life on what I know realize was a futile endeavour
What I should have done was filled up a 20ft container with enough food and booze for one last party — bought that solar powered disco ball when it was on sale …. and went out with a bang…
the survial trick is to hold out for a few months to a year. if you can do that, the hordes will have pared themselves down quite a bit. after that, any remaining radiers will be the tough ones, heavily armed in bands. see any of the Magnificent Seven movies on how to cope. it’s an old story, actually, but they didn’t have spewing spent fuel ponds to deal with.
We’d be kidding ourselves if any of us thought we were of the right stuff to survive in such an environment….
This would be a world where brutal criminals…. military men… men trained in the use of force including cops…. would thrive…
Until the ponds got them….
and global warming would finish them off, if the radiation poisoning didn’t get them first.
100% certain now we are set to be wiped out due to global warming.
Little now will be done to stem emissions with Trump and just window dressing lip service will be on the airways. At least Fast Eddy can rest easy because everything that can be done to bring fossil fuels to market to be burned will be.
Looking forward to Turkey dinner at Christmas for the next four yearsl
best place to set up out in the desert bury a container full of canned food and bottled water lots of books to read maybe a guitar and some board games and stay there for a least six months return back to civilisation and you know what you will find six months after the collapse of BAU . You will have the world to yourself
Holy shit, that is one scary picture you paint.
common phenomenon, pre-ancient advanced civilization theory.. hmm.. hmm..
IF we had a way of dating stone monuments.. a university of wales study, chlorine-36 dating.. Stonehenge.. The date apparently came out as showing that the stone of Stonehenge was first exposed to the atmosphere around 23.000BC.. chlorine-36 dating hasn’t had that much popularity since..
There are the Piri Reis maps that show Antarcticas shore lines beneath the ice.. no explanation.. silence..
And it looks like the last Ice Age ended in an asteroid or comet fragment hitting the northern ice cap 11 700 years ago. Melting the northern ice cap in Canada, resulting in “40 days and 40 nights of rain” and when the rains stopped the sea level had risen 394 feet.. and animals and other megafauna — creatures heavier than 100 lbs. (45 kilograms) — went extinct including giants like the saber-toothed cats, giant caribou, supersized armadillos, giant american cheetahs, original american horses, giant beavers, giant american camels, musk ox, giant ground sloth, giant short-faced bear, woolly rhino, dire wolves, mastodons, and the mammoths.. all of the giants of old.. all extinct 11 700 years ago..
With the Deluge.. sure one or even two ancient civilizations would have been destroyed by something like that.. easily.. if everything else heavier than 100 lbs. (45 kilograms) went extinct..
I’ve been wondering on the energy source those ancient civilizations could have been using.. they didn’t use fossil fuels.. no evidence of windmills or hydropower.. irrigation -maybe.. biochar.. yes in the amazons Terra Preta.. too bad the ancient legends of the white bearded men who came from the sea after the Deluge.. Viracocha- for the incas, Quetzalcoatl- for the incas and mayans, Manu- in India, Da Yu in china, Ziusudra- the sumerian deluge epic flood hero.. none of them ever told what kind of energy source they had been using.. dammit.. what good is it being a epic white bearded civilizing flood hero, if you’re not an engineer.. they sure ‘ve been bloody useless astronomers all of ’em..
Yes, most intriguing. We’ll probably never know – until we return to the Source, then we’ll remember: “Ah, yes – I knew it all along!” 😉 But at least the Indians tell us they ran their vimanas on mercury.
Where are the bones of these so called ancients? Plenty of bones of reptiles and mammals even dinosaurs from 30 million years ago. The reason we know those animals you mentioned went extinct is because of the BONES.
Burned biomass, and perhaps charcoal?
This may have been just make-work, to keep some of the population busy, so that they wouldn’t be out planting more fields and having more children based on the higher food production.
Gail,
You are brilliant! Such an elegant, concise and comprehensive explanation of our economy!
One word seems to sum it all up- entropy. Please contact me as I have an paper which illustrates a practical solution to our dilemma.
‘illustrates a practical solution to our dilemma’
Don’t leave us in such suspense… can we get the executive summary?
We will sign NDA’s if you feel we might steal the idea….
Already with the word “solution” you can be sure it’s a fraud.
I bet if Gail email’s this guy he’ll hit her up for cash …. could be in the form of an ‘investment’ in BAU saving technology…. perhaps a subscription to a ‘how to survive and prosper from the coming collapse’ plan … or he might be straight forward and ask for money for more Abilify….
This is very interesting…
Symptoms
Schizophrenia involves a range of problems with thinking (cognition), behavior or emotions. Signs and symptoms may vary, but usually involve delusions, hallucinations or disorganized speech, and reflect an impaired ability to function. Symptoms may include:
Delusions. These are false beliefs that are not based in reality. For example, you think that you’re being harmed or harassed; certain gestures or comments are directed at you; you have exceptional ability or fame; another person is in love with you; or a major catastrophe is about to occur. Delusions occur in most people with schizophrenia.
Hallucinations. These usually involve seeing or hearing things that don’t exist. Yet for the person with schizophrenia, they have the full force and impact of a normal experience. Hallucinations can be in any of the senses, but hearing voices is the most common hallucination.
More http://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/schizophrenia/symptoms-causes/dxc-20253198
The good news for the Koombayaists is that .. there are options…(Keith you may want to print this out….)
Second-generation antipsychotics
These newer, second-generation medications are generally preferred because they pose a lower risk of serious side effects than do first-generation antipsychotics. Second-generation antipsychotics include:
Aripiprazole (Abilify)
Asenapine (Saphris)
Brexpiprazole (Rexulti)
Cariprazine (Vraylar)
Clozapine (Clozaril)
Iloperidone (Fanapt)
Lurasidone (Latuda)
Olanzapine (Zyprexa)
Paliperidone (Invega)
Quetiapine (Seroquel)
Risperidone (Risperdal)
Ziprasidone (Geodon)
Schizophrenia has a broad spectrum of presentations. It is seldom the full set. The one I find most interesting is the derailment of thought. Where the person moves from one thought to a loosely connected thought on and on. As you listen each step by its self almost seems reasonable but after five step you realize this is completely disorganized.
I was mostly focusing on the aspects of Delusion…..
The doctors have this all wrong… there is nothing wrong with these people … they can’t help it if they were born in DelusiSTAN….
To be Delusional for a person from that territory is completely normal.
Giving them drugs to fight their state of mind is like giving a dog a drug that stops it from barking….
Dilemma is the wrong word. Entropy is but one of many problems combining to realise our “predicament”. There are no solutions to a predicament. IMO Gail would mark your paper with a “F”.
“as I have an paper which illustrates a practical solution to our dilemma.”
Eric could you provide us with a few key points of your “solution”?
Inquiring minds want to know.
Oil slump prompts Gulf states to take shine off cushy government jobs
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-gulf-austerity-idUSKBN1400BH
I can believe that.
thanks for that link—confirms what I’ve been saying for a long time.
The sole source of income for virtually all the peoples of the Saudi peninsula and the general oil producing area of the middle east is derived from hydrocarbon production.
But they are convinced that “wages” come from passing bits of paper around, and sending each other electronic signals. (they call it having a job)
In return for that strenuous effort, they receive more bits of paper, which they then exchange for food, fuel and other necessities of life.
There’s at least 30x too many people engaged in this activity, all certain that it will go on forever.
It has to, because they have no other means of existence.
such is the saudi survival plan
Some countries have set up sovereign wealth funds… funded by oil profits … e.g. Norway…
Sounds like a great idea!
Then you have countries like the UK, Saudi Arabia, Canada and many others…. who save nothing for a rainy day – they instead blow the lot as fast as it comes in… the Saudi’s are particularly profligate with their oil cash — fancy cars, sexy whores, high grade coke, shopping trips…. they act like Derek Zoolander would — if he had the dosh….
Sounds like a terrible idea!
As we can see the Norwegians got it wrong — when BAU blows — they will the day before have a 1 with many zeroes following it on the credit side of the ledger…. then the next day there will be a 0.
All that wealth vapourized … in the blink of an eye.
Sovereign wealth funds are a stupid idea for a sovereign government.
If Norway had pumped less oil so that there was no spare profits to fund a savings scheme, they would still have oil reserves superior to today’s levels. Now they have numbers in accounts and will soon import oil. Numbers in accounts can be infinite. It’s not the same as oil reserves.
Oil reserves in the ground are worthless, if the above ground financial system fails. The story is, “Pump it now or pump it never.” The “peak oil” group has put out a lot of nonsense with respect to continuing production. Such production depends on ever rising prices and the system holding together. This basically cannot happen.
They are hardly worthless right now, but eventually they will be of course. The sovereign wealth fund will equally be worthless as well, so we are buggered either way, just not yet
Exxon CEO is now Trump’s secretary of state favorite – transition official
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tillerson-idUSKBN13Z01E?il=0
T.Rex for secretary of state.
Maybe Aramco gets another option … US military delivers the remaining reserves to Exxon to hold off bankruptcy….
It’s time for capitalism with gloves off ? Or capitalism with a gun to your head ?
It is a most unusual choice for that position…. no doubt about that.
Not so strange…Trump will chum up to Russia for access to moar petro
ExxonMobil says to return to Russian Arctic once sanctions lifted
Glenn Waller, the head of ExxonMobil operations in Russia, said on Tuesday that the company will return to its joint oil project with Rosneft in the Russian Arctic once sanctions against Moscow are lifted. The oil major had to withdrew from the drilling project with Rosneft in 2014 when the West imposed sanctions against Moscow for its role in the Ukrainian crisis. reuters
No cheap oil possible from the arctic, however.
e der s wont stand for this. Trump is toast.
Tillerson is definitely the ironic choice. The CEO of the world’s largest oil company becoming SecState at the exact time of Peak Oil, Peak Resources, Peak Globalism. Truly the intersection between finite resources, corporatism, capitalism, politics and militarism. The signs of decline abound.
Sort of reminds you of Bush and Cheney in the 2001 to 2009 period. Someone must have realized that oil was a problem back then as well.
InAlaska, I think is was Dick Cheney who was the oil man at peak. This new guy is past peak and the only resource worth stealing is Russia’s. Maybe US and Russia can circle the wagons and shut out the rest of the world.
Maybe Dick Cheney was the oil man for peak conventional oil. Total Liquids is later, probably 2015.
I will have to agree: Russia is doing better than most with oil.
The sun in the Northern Hemisphere is reaching its lowest output during the winter and paranoia is on the rise, as Monday, “the darkest day of the week”, is approaching:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/10/europe/istanbul-explosions/
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-38280627
The energy in the oil reservoirs’ that has been pumped up is evident in the oil civilization that we have built. It has taken enormous amounts of energy to built it and it takes now enormous amounts of energy just to maintain it.
A short time solution to save energy to reduce the cost of production is to cannibalize on the oil civilization by letting it decay. The energy in the infrastructure can be used up… but once the decay eats up the infrastructure the oil civilization collapses and with that the production of oil.
“A short time solution to save energy to reduce the cost of production is to cannibalize on the oil civilization by letting it decay. ”
But would you say that the “decay” can be arrested” by micro-scale low/no energy maintenance?
Trump is talking about a $10 trillion infrastructure program to repair the decay of US infrastructure.
Just to keep a mega city barely functioning takes massive amounts of energy and work.
I guess I would concentrate the work to maintain the most vital parts of the oil civilization and its infrastructure and let other parts decay.
That would most likely lead to civil unrest and to a flood of refugees to the parts of the civilization that still was intact though.
I’m sure you’re mostly correct (and we could be thinking of two different things) by infrastructure. I wouldn’t say I’m making good progress, but I’ve started repairing the state highway just in front of my house. It is virtually cost free and is an unskilled project. THEORETICALLY, anyone could do the same. There are easy (but slow) projects like that, and there are things like repairing roofs and gutters, that take a lot more skill and courage. So I distinguish the vital parts and the nonvital parts on the basis of skill and complexity. Not necessarily on location. I’d also caution about top down, centralized governments’ assessment of what is vital or not. Higher levels of government will be the first to go.
What’s vital from the standpoint of some sort of centralized government are nuclear pollution and a very pared down list of manufactured good–knives, antibiotics, cardboard, etc.
This is my idea of an unskilled repair of a highway: (I took this photo in India a few years ago)
It’s one kind of unskilled repair. There are others….like paper pulp. In a large, rounded hole like the one you post, my paper pulp technique would need to be mixed with coarse gravel and dirt. Paper pulp seems to work best in narrow, but wide enough fissures whose walls will support the pulp.and keep it in place.
My neighbor was a civil engineer, and he fills potholes on his dirt road by carefully constructing different layers of stones topped by fine gravel and dirt (or something like that) which he tamps down. Sort of like the above, although he does have skill. My technique works OK on asphalted surfaces that crack in linear fissures that I can fill.
Interesting!
I was trying to address what Yoshua said about decay of the periphery while shoring up the core. But what if the people we see here become their own little core? They can let the place go without rendering it unlivable. They just keep repairing it with unskilled labor and don’t allow it to deteriorate beyond their level of control.
If they got a basic level of education, favoring women, they might be able to keep their population low enough to match their low level of skill.
Another way I’m thinking of “decay” is applying this same level of “neglect” to the core itself. I’m thinking of how the bushes on the left are allowed to grow on their own any way they like. I doubt that would harm anybody.
We still have the question of who sets up that basic level of education and perhaps health services. And what about the nuclear materials that require sophisticated management worldwide? But I suppose that’s Yosha’s core’s responsibility…
Becoming a core requires access to energy supplies, I expect. This in turn is related to people’s role in the overall organization.
I find it hard to expect any kind of transition of this type taking place. Trying to sort of maintain our current system is a big enough problem. Trying to adapt it to do something else at the same time wouldn’t work. Once collapse is in place, the energy needed for education and health care likely won’t be available.
Artleads-
Knives are something I’ve always loved and you are right that they are an absolutely essential tool. They can definitely made with scrap metal and wood charcoal. My neighbour made a beautiful one with a piece of leaf spring like that.
Good job repairing the road and thank you for your thoughts here.
Thanks, JB. I guess you need some hefty shears to fashion the springs. But since there is such disconnect as to our future prospects, no community is stocking up on basic tools while figuring howto make them from simple means. I need to learn about wood charcoal.
Wood charcoal was the primary cause of the deforestation that was overwhelming the planet before fossil fuels were harnessed…..
The need for wood charcoal is closely tied to our love for metals. It is an illustration of the need for “concentrated energy,” not just energy.
You are repairing the state highway — help me understand why — when we have so little time left… you would spent any of it on that?
Is this your passion? Is it like a religious thing – a calling?
Does your wife say ‘god damn you lazy sunufabitch get out there and fix that road – I’ll not tell you again’ Does she never let up?
Are you overweight and this project is a way to slim down — to get in shape?
Is this part of your bucket list? If so what else is on the list — are you planning to whip yourself … lock yourself in a dark room for a week with no food – chew glass — burn your hand on a hot oven???
Everyone’s bucket list is different –I had always thought it would be filled with adventures … excitement … fun…
I had not thought that some people might fill there’s with misery … but then one man’s misery is another man’s joy …
I am not convinced we can focus on the vital parts of the fossil fuel era since we don’t know what the vital parts are. What is vital now may not be after the financial system collapses. Or, after some other black swan event. Additionally, so many things are interconnected now as well so that makes finding the vital parts even harder.
I am beginning to think that our system is an all or nothing creation. Lest we fall back to a population of ~500,000 hunter gatherers.
despite Trump’s insommnia, I don’t think he’s a regular finite worldster
otherwise he’d know what energy is
I took a few moments out of my busy day this morning (skipping a board meeting … and telling a rather pi ss ed off NZ minister of finance he’d have to come back later in the day if he wanted more advice on the economy …) to see what it is like to be a hunter gatherer.
I tied an old towel around my waist … grabbed a knife… and raced into the forest… I got cold … and had no idea how to start a fire… then I got hungry and had no a clue as to what I could gather to eat… so I tried to hunt with my knife…. but there were only birds and I found them very difficult to kill… you just cannot get close enough…. then the sand flies started biting…. and it was getting dark…
And I said… f87k this sh it…..
And I raced back through the forest… and back into the arms of my lovely BAU…..
we are all amazed yu didn’t get arrested for streaking
If anyone had seen me,,, i’d be waiting to be bailed out of the loony bin
$1 trillion over 10 years, hopefully paid for by someone other than US tax payers. Of course, they are likely to want to be paid back–sort of like raising taxes after the fact, to pay for the repairs. Probably the vast majority is just to get old infrastructure up to standards.
Yes Yos, most people think in terms of where we are now. Think 50 years ago when the population was half what it is now, the energy use and environmental destruction that was unsustainable even then…….Species extinction and major fisheries destruction was well underway.
Although we were perpetrating severe insults on the Earth for over 3000 years, each doubling of population escalated the natural resources humans required, to continue to increase their numbers and living standards.
So now we are at seven and a half billion people doing horrific damage but think of the damage done during the run-up to our present number. Resource exhaustion and species extinted that can never be replaced. How can anyone possibly entertain the idea that it can be increased or even sustained for an indefinite period?
Maybe Trump should choose the traditional chinese way of transport inftastructure:
http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2011/12/the-chinese-wheelbarrow.html
It is much easier to maintain a narrow path than the multilane highways we have now. This approach seems to have been chosen as a way of simplification, when the economy hit a bottleneck. According to the article,
So, you may be right!
Gail-
Interesting. The wheelbarrow is most certainly one of greatest labor saving devices ever devised, IMO. I’d be hard pressed without one.
I thought the telephone allowing home-delivered pizza was the biggest labor saving device ever.
We are doing that already. There was an article recently about the how the failure to maintain locks on the Ohio river is causing major problems for river traffic. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/23/business/economy/desperately-plugging-holes-in-an-87-year-old-dam.html?_r=0 We have been living using the benefit of these locks built many years ago, without setting aside money to keep them up and at some point replace them.
There are many other types of infrastructure with the same problem. It is related to the chart I show as Figure 1. It takes more and more energy, just to replace old infrastructure that is wearing out.
Thanks, Gail, that analytical sketch is very convincing! Well done explanations. I appreciate the Tverberg-approach as an alternative to neoliberal and Keynesian explanations. The consequence is rather panic-striking. I suppose we will face some financial cataclysm, likely the fall of the Euro. After that break down our economies wont start up again, there will be urgent need of regionally produced water and food. Healthcare will be impossible and a lot of people die. Those, who survive will have the remains to use, like concrete and steel. As much as these vanish, modern times will be gone. Communication infrastructure will break and knowledge will be lost. We will fall back on a technical level of the middleages. That is everyday life in many third world states. Who calls that a life not worth living?
The Federal Reserve did not end Quantitative Easing in 2011. They have continued to buy Mortgage-Backed Securities (to the tune of $400B in 2016). They hold these securities in an account from which they loan the money so that institutions can benefit. They inject money into the economy on the purchase of the securities and they inject money when they make them available for “rent”. These securities do not appear on the Fed’s balance sheet and are thus “hidden” from view.
Repo market isn’t the same thing as Quantitative Easing. Fed loans out securities to institutions or banks that use them as collateral for short-term loans. Then Fed buys securities back at a higher price at a later date leave said bank flush with cash. Bank uses money to buy stock or whatever. They inject money into Banks not the economy. Banks buy stock or whatever with it.
Apparently some but not all Hedge Funds are also allowed to use the Fed’s Repo facility. Guess you have to be in the Club.
Gail,
You are brilliant! Such an elegant, concise and comprehensive explanation of our economy!
One word seems to sum it all up- entropy. Please contact me as I have an paper which illustrates a practical solution to our dilemma.
If you have a practical solution to entropy, I would like to hear it. I am doubtful one exists, however.
Lowering entropy without adding energy is impossible. And we are running out of energy in which to lower the entropy of our artificial world. The only “solution” is an alternate universe where our physical laws do not apply.
That would be DelusiSTAN….
So they say
His e-mail answer sounds like “Permaculture.”
Interesting … can you provide a source with more info on this?
Another thought on this…. given the fact that our continued survival is on the line…. given the fact that the Fed is known to lie e.g. manipulation of the gold price…
Would anyone be shocked to find out that the Fed is pumping in massive amounts of stimulus…. without reporting it?
In fact I would assume they are doing this …. and if so I would have zero problem with it…
Whatever it takes… means … whatever it takes…. nothing is too extreme…
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Australian GDP catastrophe economic recession
Aussie economy shrinks for the first time in 5 years. Inches closer to its first recession in 26 years! Housing crash here we come…Of course, having been delayed by financial tom foolery and crazed Chinese speculation for far too long, when the end comes it won’t just be a recession, but the most epic depression ever witnessed in the anglo world since the big one hit back in 1931. All this and before the world economy as we’ve known it since WW2, hits the skids for the last time.
In fact I confidently predict that Australia will be the canary in the coal mine of “advanced” western economies as to what the future will bring, once the cheap credit spigot shuts off, not barely out of developing status places like Greece, Portugal or Spain.
I just want to see the smiles wiped off all the smug faces around me who believed, more than life itself, that the fairy tale would never end.
Then I can die a happy man…
The crash will not spare anyone. It will be different the next big crash. It will not only be Australia and it won’t start here, or very unlikely. It will be a dynasty ending event as we are already in the decadence of a worn out epoch.
I agree.
No problem – just ban cash – it worked in India!
No, there will be no electronic money once the grid goes down.
I hope you’re not taking the piss Richard. Most Aussies have no f#cking cash…
“Then I can die a happy man…”
Don’t forget – we also need to learn who, if any, wins the game of thrones!
You mean game of loans? F#cking no one. There will be no economy left to mention after this unsustainable clusterf#ck goes tits up.
Just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the four largest banks in America – JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo – had a combined loan book equivalent to 21% of American GDP.
In Australia, the mortgage book of the Commonwealth Bank alone is equal to 23% of Australian GDP, and 66% of all new home loans are now interest only. Even with record low interest rates, and set to go lower in February, the sheeple are so indebted they can’t even even make the minimum nut on their house repayments.
BUT … as long as you have a 20 year supply of Paraffin Wax…. it’s all good.
It’ll end up being Connor McGregor, pissing off everyone who watches the show.
I root for the white walkers.
You won’t find that happiness, for the smug ones will tell you they saw this coming first, or that they told YOU about it.
No, I believe I will, as the douche bags that surround me line up, one by one, for that giant triple decker sh#t sandwich. I don’t know if you fully appreciate the kind of Ponzi scheme that’s been running in this country the last 15 years or so. It will make the 2008 property crash in the U.S. seem like a fun-park amusement ride by comparison.
psile-
There are a few where I live that will stand accused of douchebaggery, that, in my darker moments, I can’t wait to say “I f&&king told you this was coming!” But, it does seem Australia is going to go down hard. The last 15 years their and in Canada have been all about China and boom times for resource countries. The debt junkies who like the big homes, cars and toys are in another dimension as to what awaits them.
The housing bubble in Australia is probably unprecedented in all of history. Just as a comparison, during the wild-west days of the US property bubble (2004-2006), Americans were pulling out around 4-41/2% out of their home equity to fund consumption. In Australia, this situation has been going on for so long that people here have been drawing down between 10-15% every year for 15 years to fund lifestyle.
Like I said, the explosion at the end of this Ponzi without precedent will be incredible. Akin to standing next to to a powder keg, setting off a bag of TNT, which is sitting next to a tank of propane gas, when it goes off…
Thanks for the warning. Suppose the explosion will look something like this
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dbCC7Akw2RI
It’s broke….don’t go in there
Then we have the HK bubble…..
I recall the implosion in 1998…. it was meant to be the bubble to end all bubbles… prices were insane…
Here’s the most recent comparison I can find … prices are a fair bit higher than in 2013….
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/ScreenHunter_09-Apr.-22-17.04.gif
‘the average price for a Hong Kong Island parking space is HK$1.41 million’ — or USD180,000…
When this blows — it will suck the oxygen out of Asia and leave millions gagging for air…. truly epic stuff….
All that extrapolation because the economy of Australia shrank for the first time in 5 years.
When your economy is a one ever stretched elastic band, that must keep stretching, snap back is a bitch.
+++++++
“I just want to see the smiles wiped off all the smug faces around me who believed, more than life itself, that the fairy tale would never end.
Then I can die a happy man…”
I can understand that.
We’ve had it good for so long the rest of the world doesn’t really exist in Australian eyes except for our trips to Bali & the UK where we annoy the locals about how good we’ve got it.
We are indeed a smug arrogant nation.
Sounds like our own Fast Eddy has adopted their philosophy …live large today, because it don’t look good for tomorrow… Just a coincidence he lives right next door in NZ lol
Yo, Eddy, just a little ahead of the times…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MNoWveBtrZc
Australia has always struck a little as a mini-America…. (and as we all know — if I play word association and you say America — I think cesspool…. swamp…. hate…. anger…. Paris and Kim…. Dancing with Stars…. upset stomach…. dizzy spells…)
Australia is of course nowhere near that bad… not even close…. but then it would be very difficult to drop the bar anywhere near as low as America has…. on just about everything.
Story time….
I was skiiing in Queenstown in July … and I shared the lift with an Aussie …. he was on for the chat…. and could not believe I chose NZ over Australia … everything — including the snow – in Australia was apparently better….
He finished up with – so why didn’t you choose Australia — and I am thinking ….too many like you there?
But instead I said… I am afraid of poisonous snakes… terrified of them ….
Did you know that there is not a single species of snake in New Zealand? I think it might be the only country on the planet without any snakes — so my choice of countries was really narrowed down…
He must have thought I was rather odd…. I bet he is still telling stories about this mad Canadian who chose his new country of residence solely on the basis of the country being snake-free….
The length of time since the last recession in Australia is just phenomenal! Having both coal and natural gas resources that could be exported, plus many minerals, has no doubt helped. Demand for these has generally risen, allowing increased production.
Riding on the coattails of the Chinese ponzi for the past 15+ years has been the main undercurrent.
Australian economy most leveraged in the world and is heading for the rocks with household debt the most leveraged in the world, equal to 125% of GDP
Today, the Australian household sector is the most leveraged in the world, with debts equal to 125% of GDP as of the first three months of 2016 (and its rising even further). In contrast, US household debt peaked at 98% in the first quarter of 2008.
Just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the four largest banks in America – JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo – had a combined loan book equivalent to 21% of American GDP. In Australia, the mortgage book of the Commonwealth Bank alone is equal to 23% of Australian GDP. We are essentially talking about a housing bubble and leverage profile that has reached a completely different realm of “prime” banking and lending.
Australian households are the most indebted in the world, according to research by Barclays, which warns that the country would be vulnerable in the event of another global financial shock. Barclays chief economist for Australia Kieran Davies says private sector debt-to-income gearing is currently at an all-time high of 206 per cent, up from a pre-global financial crisis (GFC) level of 191 per cent.
The carnage will be epic and viewable from orbit. Plan to be at least 500 kms from the nearest major city when it blows.
Gives “Down Under” a new meaning.
I think it gives the term “Going down” new meaning;-)
Obviously Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway and Denmark are not part of the World they talk about.
Wow!
I wonder if relative to income, China isn’t up there as well.
I don’t have the exact figures but the majority of Australian home owners already are mortgage free. I think it used to be around 2/3rds so those with the big, not to say underwater, mortgages are significant but not that much of a threat to the national economy.
Per capita it doesn’t come close. The Chinese ponzi is an altogether different animal, but more dangerous.
Energy per capita is really a very good tool for assessing the situation of the population, as mentioned also in the prvious blogs here.
When I have a look here
Energy use (kg of oil equivalent per capita)
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE
I can see that the countries where the energy consumption per capita has fallen drastically also face the population decline:
E.g.:
Romania
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=RO
https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=romania+population
Latvia
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=LV
https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=latvia+population
Lithuania
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=LT
https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=lithuania+population
Estonia
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=EE
https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=estonia+population
Ukraine
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=UA
https://www.google.sk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=ukraine+population
Etc.
The fall of the energy consumption precedes the decline of the population. Based on the abovementioned, all those who predict that, in the presence of the falling energy use/consumption per capita, the populations will be stable or even that they will rise are terribly mistaken.
It is the energy that keeps the system network functioning. Without the external energy, the population inevitably declines, as its members can not afford to buy the energy they need for sustaining the growth.
From the so called developed countries, especially United Kingdom is in a very terrible situation without the immigrants and guest workers. The peak of energy use per capita for the UK was 1996, which was followed by massive immigration and guest workers to offset this decline in energy use per capita of the population:
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE?locations=GB
http://www.migrationwatchuk.com/images/latest-immigration-stats/latest-im-stats.png
Source: https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/
Buying people with printed money is easier than buing energy. It can work for some time.
… and the oil production was going down at the same time, as the energy use per capita was falling and the number of immigrants was rising:
http://cdn.oilprice.com/images/tinymce/Evan1/ada1027.png
Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/British-Oil-Industry-On-The-Verge-Of-Collapse.html
Wow. At some point the world production will follow and then we know it’s MAX 20 years and almost all of us are gone. Amazing.
It is also coal that we need to be concerned about. It is already headed downward, on a world basis.
Thanks for pointing out this source of Energy per capita data. I have calculated some numbers in the past, either from BP data (which is limited to “big” countries), or from EIA data (which is fairly behind, if it can still be found on the EIA website). This data is only through 2013, so has some of the same lagging behind problems as the EIA data.
This is a chart I put together now showing UK total energy production per capita, energy consumption per capita, and net imports per capita.
I think that at some point, it becomes hard enough to keep raising energy imports enough. I suppose the lower paid imported workers help keep down the total cost of production, so that goods can remain somewhat competitive in the world market.
Gail, except for metallurgical coal, which is a small percentage, almost all coal is used to make electrical power. Any cheap electrical source will replace most coal.
Power satellites might deliver power in the 2 cent per kWh range, and in the long run with materials from asteroids, down in the fractional cents per kWh. That’s low enough to make synthetic gas and oil from electric power for about what we pay for them now. But it would take realizing that the current intermittent power sources can’t replace fossil fuel power sources and one heck of a development project to set up the infrastructure to build them.
At least one showstopper is out of the way, NOAA found that a million flights a year will not do significant damage to the ozone layer. That’s enough flights to displace all the fossil fuel humanity uses in about ten years.
I found an interesting paper.
“Prehistoric hunter–gatherer population growth rates rival those of agriculturalists”
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4743830/
The best sentence:
“for the most part, preindustrial populations, both hunter–gatherer and agriculturalist, seem to have grown at the same rate, no matter what was eaten or how it was obtained, provided only that there was enough of it.”
population growth in the range 0.04-0.4% per annum. I’m surprised, don’t know why, but seems counterintuitive.
the key word being “enough”.
Hunting gathering societies exploit until the carry capacity falls below yields necessary for established living standards, they then move on to a new area. So as long as there is “enough” the should in fact outproduce agriculturalist because H/G have more free time to engage in baby making activities. A stretch perhaps but more free time results in idle hands…
Agricultural societies are stationary and must “maintain” the carry capacity through a myriad of means. There are tons of great books about how those choices are made; pigs eating a very similar diet to humans, while cows, sheep and goats forage and do not compete for human based foods. Granted industrial farming has tweaked the system to the point where cows do compete for human foodstuffs but back in the OLD DAYS.
Oh give me land, lots of land under starry skies above, Don’t fence me in
“more free time”
Most hunter gatherer groups move several times a year. It was usually about 5 years between children. This still filled up the world.
Some sources said that the life expectancies of H-G were longer than of later farmers. Also, H-G seemed to be as much as six inches taller than farmers coming later.
Radiation aside… I am 100% convinced that the best way to survive would be to hunt and gather…
Stationary targets (farmers) are guaranteed dead meat. They will be overwhelmed.
Whereas a hunter gatherer is on the move…. he can go deep into the forest away from the hordes… he can move if the hordes approach … he does not need to grow food because he knows what can be foraged from the bush….
I’d go with a hybrid model — I’d buy a very sturdy back pack — knives – snares – a tarp – some warm clothes — a few dozen lighters… a high quality sleeping bag.
I’d team up with a Viet Cong ….because they know how to travel light… she would do….
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/14/e8/67/14e8671fe1497ae8e5a25771c6dd0cd3.jpg
I’d get myself some training in bushcraft specific to the area I planned to live…. I’d read everything on edible plants, bugs etc…. Pre BAU I would be in the bush every weekend practicing … learning …. understanding my weaknesses… getting more training to deal with them…
Farming = death.
You would need to hope that there weren’t too many other hunter-gatherers.
Unlikely as we have never had anyone land on FW with this intention …. they are all infatuated with becoming Permies… which is of course will be like walking through the meanest neighbourhood with a transparent sack of $100 bills on your back….
Let me ride through the wide country that I love, Don’t fence me .
Interesting point about pigs eating a similar diet to humans, while cows, sheep and goats forage. I would imagine that observation could have led to Jews declaring that pigs are unclean. (Practical way to explain that they are not a good choise as an animal to raise.)
Horses also seem to eat a similar diet to humans, making them expensive animals to keep for transportation or to use as draft animals. Oxen are not very smart, but can forage for food.
Supplementary energy helped hunter-gatherers, just as it did early agriculturalists. Once humans gained an energy advantage over other species, humans were able to win the contest for survival, pushing out competing species.
Such satellites will require material, energy, and financial resources to build, launch, and replace over time. Those resources need to come from somewhere. When we have a situation where resources are declining in rate of supply and increasing in cost, satellites will no longer be an option. For centuries we have either had or known that we could have increasing rates of supply or required resources or suitable substitutes at affordable costs. We have grown so accustomed to this being the case that we have developed our economies and assumptions, our beliefs and investments, how we feel about ourselves and our place in the web of life, our expectations and plans for the future, our investment decisions, everything in the general human psychology (at least in those parts of the world lucky enough to have grown accustomed to such growth) around that core assumption of there always being more and of it always being affordable.
That includes assumptions and expectations, hopes and even cautionary notes, about technological progress. We have warnings of how we must plan for traffic jams in the decades ahead (a future negative) because of the assumption that there shall continue to be growth in the numbers of cars on the road thanks to continued growth in the economy and prosperity (future positive).
The idea of satellites delivering our future energy needs may sound like a pleasant fantasy (it is always better when the dirty business of resource supply is out of sight), but fantasy is all it can be given the limitations (and consequences thereof) that we are already seeing.
Perhaps, as a species, we could consider recognising and accepting how serious our situation is and start doing what we can to at least make it possible for some small number of members of our species to survive and continue. No, that too would seem to be fantasy. Even the much-vaunted Paris Accords, for example, make emissions limits voluntary, make meeting them voluntary, and make it clear that growth must remain a priority.
It is not merely a matter of being a particularly foolish and idiotic species, it is a matter of doing all we can to prove to each other every day just how foolish and idiotic we are as we knowingly continue to push ourselves toward extinction because anything else is unthinkable thanks not only to the fact that we stay firm to the psyche mentioned above, but also because the consequences of actually taking appropriate action would also condemn many millions of humans around the world to misery and death (such as others commenting here have already pointed out numerous times).
“Such satellites will require material, energy, and financial resources to build, launch, and replace over time.”
Absolutely!
If we build enough to get off fossil fuels, it will take about 3000 of them at a cost (including the ground rectenna) of about $12 B each or some $36 T over about ten years.
However, it doesn’t take a lot of material, perhaps 1% of that required for ground solar because out in space you don’t have to cope with wind or gravity. The energy use that goes into making the hydrogen is impressive, about half the current production of LNG. But an awful lot of NG is used for making power, and the energy payback from a power satellite is around 3 months, so as much as they use, it gets paid back rapidly.
The financial resources to get started are considerable, on the scale of $100 B. Is that a bargain?
How much did we spend on the last energy war?
Who will do the first prototype? How about a cooperation between China, Japan, Russia, India, and South Korea? The “New Sun Cooperation Group”?
“Who will do the first prototype?”
A friend of mine just got back from two weeks talking to the Chinese about where their power satellite project is going. Can’t say more since I have not talked to him yet.
This sounds promising!
“If we build enough to get off fossil fuels, it will take about 3000 of them at a cost (including the ground rectenna) of about $12 B each or some $36 T over about ten years”
For those who don’t want to read my entire post – I’m about to outline to Keith that his energy salvation project would require America, Japan, Germany and China to devote 106% of their tax revenue each year for a twenty year stretch.
Keith, we established some time ago that your 15TW figure for satellite electricity demand is wildly mistaken. In 2040 (the earliest date you agreed your scheme would get us off fossil fuels) the electricity demand for the satellites will be approx 40TW (factoring in 25 years growth from 19 TW in 2016 as well as substitution inefficiencies and energy transformation losses – synthetic crude production has about 70% efficiency in its use of electricity.
Therefore you will need 8000 5GW satellites NOT 3000. The cost will be $100 Trillion NOT $36 Trillion.
But wait there’s more!
Without fuel synthesis plants the satellites are useless so let’s count the cost of those otherwise we are being a little dishonest aren’t we Keith?
I’ve looked at the ‘blue crude’ plants being built now and I’ve come up with a figure of about $60 T to build enough infrastructure to produce the 20,000,000,000 litres of synthetic crude we would need daily in 2040.
So your $36 Trillion balloons to $160 Trillion !!!!!
This will be a project that is 7000 times more expensive than the Three Gorges Dam
or
The entire cost of getting to the moon PLUS the cost of the international space station then SQUARED!!!
or
40,000 percent more expensive than the U.S Interstate Highway System
160 Trillion over 25 years equates to 6.4 Trillion a year. That’s the entire tax take of the four biggest economies in the world!
So whats the problem? We just have to make som sacrifices.
“106% of their tax revenue”
Ah, but the project makes a profit, so much profit that it could become the dominate direct and indirect source of taxes. You should not look at just the cost, you should take into account the revenue. To simplify the accounting model and reduce the capital investment, the model sells the power satellites as they are completed to utilities or groups of them, like the group that owns https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palo_Verde_Nuclear_Generating_Station
I agree with you that energy growth may take the demand up to 40 TW. We can cope with that, G. Harry Stein calculated decades ago that GEO can produce at least 177 TW. We can do it from the ground and not chew up the ozone layer as long as the installation stays below ~2 TW/year new installations. Above that we may be forced into mining asteroids.
“come up with a figure of about $60 T”
Sasol plant in Qatar produces 34,000 bbl/day at a capital cost of $1 B. Scaling to your figure, I get $3.7 T. Please check my calculation.
The synthetic oil plants are well down the line. My expectation is they will not be constructed before there is power from space in excess of electrical base load to run hydrogen plants.
If you would like to go over the spreadsheets, please let me know. They are in somewhat of a mess right now with the addition of $9 B for a cosmic ray shield for the workers in a 6 hour orbit and $15 B to complete Skylon.
Thanks for the analysis. I really appreciate people using numbers.
Could might if…
How about when this happens you tell us…
I could have a private jet if I bought a lottery ticket and won….
I might have great adventures in my private jet if I won the lottery…
But I have not won the lottery ticket… do you want me to bore you telling you stories of what I would do if I won? I can make believe just like you do Keith…
But that would be nonsense – it would make you think I am quite mad … wouldn’t it?
Even delusional….
I would guess Keith has that particular trick of successful people of turning off reality. Yes that trick is delusional.
I bet he gets laid about 100 times more often than the average doomster.
Winning!
Keith is a winner. He likes to come here to test his strategy among the arguments that pose the greatest threat to it. It prepares him for threats that might jeopardize his success.
I suspect Keith his honing his conman skills on FW…. as he attempts to enter the Koombaya Big Leagues …. and take his position beside Elon Musk and various others….
We wish you luck Keith.
We need a balance of people coming from different perspectives. Admittedly some seem sort of way out, but this is the direction some world leaders are thinking about. Figuring out why such an approach doesn’t really work adds more perspective to why we are in such a predicament.
So you are fine with your estimation of $36 Trillion for ‘satellites to get us off fossil fuels’ being out by $60 Trillion? Why are you bothering with spreadsheets, when toilet-paper and crayon seem more appropriate to that level of accuracy?
You also seem to be misinterpreting the costs of synthetic fuel plants.
Firstly, your example is an extreme outlier in terms of construction costs of GTL plants by a factor of four – mainly because it produces such a small range of liquids compared to others and was built in a prime position in terms of construction synergies.
.http://www.enerdata.net/enerdatauk/press-and-publication/energy-news-001/future-gas-liquid-gtl-industry_29879.html
Given that a ‘blue crude’ plant is another beast altogether requiring another separate technical process (the synthesis of feedstock) AND must produce a more complex product I would say your estimation of 4 Trillion is overall out by factor of at least seven.
That puts the cost at nearer 30 Trillion for the plants, lets add 10 trillion for associated infrastructure, you know the infrastructure needed to support these 50,000 or so behemoths.
So I capitulate, my 60 Trillion figure for fuel synthesis infrastructure could be about 20 Trillion too high. That still puts the cost of the project at nearly 150 Trillion once we factor in all those things like receiving antenna and SKYLONS and runways and kickbacks.
“To simplify the accounting model and reduce the capital investment, the model sells the power satellites as they are completed to utilities or groups of them”
You seem to be saying that a project that will cost the equivalent of fighting 400 Iraq wars each year for the next twenty years can be funded by accounting trickery.
When you put things in those terms… suddenly Keith’s idea seems to make sense… Keith how could I have doubted you….
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/c4/89/d6/c489d6a697a84abbe9835b16ee07c6b0.jpg
“out by $60 Trillion?”
You increased the target from 15 to 40 TW, so the price should go up. If you want to rework the model with an increasing target, not a problem, the project just makes more gobs of money.
“your example is an extreme outlier”
Wow, I didn’t know that. At the time, Sasol was complaining about the cost. I know that larger projects had terrible startup problems that were said to be due to corruption and incompetence. Shell also does a lot of GTL. GTL plants would run just find on CO2 and hydrogen using the water gas shift reaction on the front end. It hardly matters, it’s well over a decade before that much surplus power become available to make hydrogen.
“can be funded by accounting trickery”
Far as I know, selling power satellites to utilities at a cheaper price then they can run a coal plant or gas plant is just ordinary business. Utilities are (or used to be) in the business of owning plants and selling power.
If you don’t like power satellites, I am not welded to them. Got a better idea?
Nope.
I am resigned to the reality that fossil fuels were a one-off flash in the pan — that will result in our extinction — and that nothing — not solar panels not windmills and not space solar — can make the slightest difference.
It’s ok Keith — we all die eventually — oh yes.. the kids…and the grand kids… the hopes and dreams…
Mr DNA makes you want to care about that because he wants you to make sure they have the best shot and helping him continue his run at immortality…
But alas does that really matter? As a hard core Nihilist…. I would and could argue fairly convincingly … that it does not…
My anthem….
” we all die eventually”
There are a lot of people spending serious effort to get around death.
I tend to agree with you that fossil fuels are a one time flash. Have they raised our ability to change the world enough that we can now harvest sunlight in space to replace them? I don’t know if the answer is yes any more than you know the answer is no.
It’s been weird recently. The Cubs won the world series and Trump won the election. But neither of these is in the class of the psychological shock if either of the recent hints we are not alone is confirmed. Besides Tabby’s star, there is this:
http://phys.org/news/2016-10-stars-strange-aliens-contact.html
The real mystery remains: If aliens exist, why don’t they travel? Is the attraction of simulated worlds a universal trap that keeps *everyone* from sending out probes? It didn’t seem right to Anders Sandberg and I agree with him. Discovery of aliens would prompt a difficult
reassessment of such thinking.
How would you react if we found a civilization that made it through the fossil fuel flash?
Keith … Keith … Keith….. I thought Futureanalyst had put all of these crazed thoughts to rest….
I have reconsidered my diagnosis… and I now believe that you have a combination of Schizophrenia and …
http://www.webmd.com/mental-health/obsessive-compulsive-disorder
Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), formerly considered a type of anxiety disorder, is now regarded as a unique condition. It is a potentially disabling illness that traps people in endless cycles of repetitive thoughts and behaviors.
How Is OCD Treated?
OCD will not go away by itself, so it is important to seek treatment. The most effective approach to treating OCD combines medications with cognitive behavioral therapy.
Cognitive behavioral therapy : The goal of cognitive behavioral therapy is to teach people with OCD to confront their fears and reduce anxiety without performing the ritual behaviors (called exposure therapy or exposure and response prevention therapy). Therapy also focuses on reducing the exaggerated or catastrophic thinking that often occurs in people with OCD.
Medication therapy : Antidepressants, such as selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) like Luvox, Prozac, and Zoloft, may be helpful in treating OCD. Older drugs — tricyclic antidepressants like Anafranil — might also be used. Some atypical antipsychotics, such as Risperdal or Abilify, also have been shown to have value for OCD either when used alone or in combination with an SSRI.
I recommend you take 2 Abilify an hour before you visit FW …. this should control your urges to post more Space Solar fables….
At some point diminishing returns would seem to play a role. The cost of production doesn’t stay constant, because ores become of lower quality, needed fresh water must be shipped longer distances, etc.
“At some point diminishing returns”
Correct. GEO gets filled up at about 10 times our current use of energy. It sounds like a lot, but it would take less than a century at a reasonable energy growth rate. But if FE goes on a life extension program, perhaps he can still be bitching about doom a century from now.
If I understand the situation correctly, fresh water is a major input whenever liquid fuels are made. (I know that this is a consideration for coal to liquid plants. It is hard to have them in the arid US West.) If fresh water is a requirement in this conversion, it could add another set of costs.
Chumba-
How many times the average doomster is getting laid is something that should be polled. I’d say not much right now, but by the beard of Thor, when those horny, hungry mobs show up and I show them my potato and carrot root cellar, I’m sure I’ll have the edge over the guys with a chain saw and no gas! Bring it on!!
“Ceterum censeo Carthaginem esse delendam” over and over and over and over Cato the elder repeated, that Carthage should be destroyed.. and finally Rome attacked Carthage and razed the city to the ground. And thus was Rome spared the same fate from Carthage. And Imperial Rome was born.. Mare Nostrum and all that..
If we had the same strength of character as Cato, what would we rant on and on about?
Small urban gardens? Vertical gardens? Micro organisms in the soil? Vegetable fields? a world made by hand? Homesteads? Organic farms? What is our plan?
Tango Oscar is right about humans losing habitat. Maybe not in an decade or two, but it is highly likely that zero habitat will happen in an century or two. Eddy might be right about spent fuel ponds and radiation. Oceans should be dead in a century or two. Oxygen levels should drop. Human habitat reduced to zero. So.. what’s the plan?
The only things that could be of any help, would be walipinis, greenhouses, drip-irrigation equipment, near large scale mine complexes. And having fresh running water, run through the mine complex. Fish ponds near the entrance. Having sail-powered windmills, as mills, near the mine complex etc. etc.
Would those help? Maybe.. but probably not..
Where we are headed.. there isn’t that much to be done about it. ELE and all that..
It gets more difficult when you try to do things at large scale from the top down.
Lets suppose Dmitry Orlov and a bunch of anthropologists are right, that a strong human community is about 150 strong..
How does a 150 people community decide whose house they are going to build next? How do they decide about outfitting or not outfitting a hunting party?
A community is weak if it can not decide on work done for the benefit of the community. If the community can not work together to benefit the community, outfit hunting parties or other somesuch activites, the community will die out eventually.
It’s not always top down that semi-large scale projects can be completed. Sometimes the community just needs a few over-enthusiastic organizers who wont stop nagging until the project is finished..
“Sometimes the community just needs a few over-enthusiastic organizers who wont stop nagging until the project is finished..”
I nominate my wife.
“Sometimes the community just needs a few over-enthusiastic organizers who wont stop nagging until the project is finished..”
For what it’s worth, I fit that category. 🙂 I will NOT give up. I will NOT take no for an answer. Those who don’t like it can lump it. Yes, I do think individual leadership and vision are required. In my case, it’s not even personal. I behave the way I do because that’s just my way of behaving. I couldn’t and wouldn’t change it. I do not care whether I get any takers or only blank stares…although I can get pissed off from being misunderstood. I should do it this way are that way to succeed, they say. And they are lucky I don’t have a magic wand to make them vanish. No bloody freaking way am I going to do anything THEIR right way. I content myself with doing it all the wrong way…because I don’t give a rat’s ass about anything but doing it MY way.
I should do it this way OR that way to succeed, they say.
It requires a leader. A monarchy. The leader has to have a certain quality. He must be smart. He must be clever, He must be willing to apply force. He must be fair. He must draw on resources within his community. But largely he/she must have a indefinable quality. A leader pulls the tribe together. There is no debate he calls the shots. It is the only way.
We are not used to leaders. We will perish. The survivors if any will cherish their leader.
440cuda, surely you jest?
You became a nobleman by being a part of a successful raiding, raping and pillaging party.
You became a king by using the spoils of one raiding, raping and pillaging party, to outfit many more such parties. Many more.
You became an emperor when the casualties or slaves of your raiding, raping and pillaging was numbered in the millions.
What you call leaders.. they were killers.. very, very good at killing people. The better you and your family was in killing people, the more lands and titles were bestowed upon you. All that chilvalry BS, noble, undefined quality BS, is exactly that. BS.
Funny how people think that post BAU a kinder gentler human will emerge… that Permies will be left alone to grow their organic vegetables…
Funny as in hahahaha that’s so funny I am laughing so hard I think I have a hernia
Permies will be targets – they will have food… they will be dead meat… very quickly
Careful with generalizations Eddy. I could be considered some type of hippie right now but I guarantee you as soon as the grid goes down many of us are going to turn into Rambo or Batman.
True hippies believe in global peace and that we can obtain all the energy we need from blue crystals….
Smoking copious amounts of weed is not enough
I don’t believe in anything hippies do, lol. I mostly just enjoy the hot women and naked gardening. The smoking weed is strictly so I can tolerate their ideas without forcing myself to vomit every 30 minutes.
I could pretend to believe in the healers and energy crystals…. I’d even dance around the fire … if….
http://image.shutterstock.com/z/stock-photo-pretty-hippie-girl-playing-guitar-158140763.jpg
That one there looks exactly like my wife.
I can see why you’d like to hang on for as long as possible post BAU….
Tango Oscar, I don’t think Eddy can be scared with a Batman or even a Rambo. When the grid goes down Colonel Fast Eddy esc. in the southern island of NZ, will eat a Batman and a Rambo for breakfast each morning.
But if you tell him you’re gonna be a Miyamoto Musashi.. http://www.historyoffighting.com/miyamoto-musashi.php
“.. made the mistake of disrespecting Musashi by treating him like a child, which resulted in Musashi throwing him on the floor and beating him with a six foot wooden staff until his opponent died vomiting blood.”
Even Eddy can understand the finesse of beating someone to pulp with a wooden stick..
To be Miyamoto Musashi: greatest swordsman (killer) that ever lived.. that’d be something.. when the grid goes down..
“What you call leaders.. they were killers.. very, very good at killing people. The better you and your family was in killing people, the more lands and titles were bestowed upon you. All that chilvalry BS, noble, undefined quality BS, is exactly that. BS.”
What you call leaders.. they were killers.. very, very good at killing people. The better you and your family was in killing people, the more lands and titles were bestowed upon you. All that chilvalry BS, noble, undefined quality BS, is exactly that. BS.”
VK your supposition was that groups of people cooperating are the best route to survival post collapse. I would agree with that. You have been in the army yes? Certainly you had leaders that had your respect and some that didnt? It seems obvous to me that killing is not a substitute for interpersonal relations in a tribe. You cant just kill everyone that you have a tiff with otherwise you dont have a tribe. Morever if you are called upon to participate in combat it is proven that what works best is a team of people dedicated to each others survival not a team of people dedicated to killing each other on whim. My experience is the best combat teams had profound respect for their leader. Would you not agree?
The obvious question is what system of relationship will work. Obviously democracy will not. Their are people that have qualities that make them effective leaders. Why is stating this “BS”. A monarchy of a 150 people is still a monarchy. I know many countries that were far better off as monarchies too. I afraid you are letting some personal prejudices influence your analysis.
It seems like Russia had a lot of leaders that received that title by killing off older siblings.
44ocuda,
Yes, when I was 18 I did 12 months of officers training in my country. It was required. Never been to a war, just a bunch of practices.
Alexander the Great, destroyed an empire, burned the capitol.
Julius Caeasar, enslaved a million gaulls.
Augustus, ransacked Egypt. Took the gold to his personal coffers.
Charlemangne, was a warrior who couldn’t read or write.
Napoleon rose to prominance by firing cannons at the crowds in the streets of Paris.
Leadership (and the respect for that leadership) comes from the ability to know what has to be done, to do what is required, and by doing it. Men respect the ability to be successful, to get things done, to get the ball rolling. Women (in general) respect just the flair of unwavering self-confidence..
The best combat team is the one which completes the mission and brings all of the boys home, no matter in how many pieces.
BS: “undefined quality” “pulls the tribe together” “be of certain quality” “smart-clever-fair”
On the requirements of effective leadership read Machiavellis The Prince. And how to get things actually done read Sun Tzu, The Art of War. Everything else is propaganda. Stories. Flair. Reputation. Contacts and networks of knowing the right people. But to be an effective leader you also need these spin doctors to create the stories, the flair. As long as you yourself remember its all just BS.. all you have to do, is to actually have it happen, you just get that ball rolling, one way or another..
All the community needs is the ability to get things done. And often to get things done just requires the right contacts and networks to gather the required resources.. to get the ball rolling.. everything else, the spin doctors.. they come after the ball is already rolling..
“On the requirements of effective leadership read Machiavellis The Prince. ”
Isn’t The Prince a satire?
I think it is required reading for all senior government officials…
So no – it is not satire…
Interesting! I think you might be right.
I think with women it may not be the flair of unwavering self-confidence. It may also include respect for current values and norms. Trumps actions toward women made him very unacceptable to many women, regardless of his position on handling issues.
Julius Ceasar replied to his family: “I’ll come back Pontifex Maximus or not at all”
Before being a triumvirate and enslaving gaull, Julius Ceasar was the most indebted person in Rome..
And with the all atrocities of Alexander the Great.. no.. The Prince is not an satire..
“And often to get things done just requires the right contacts and networks to gather the required resources.. ”
“Gather” the resoruces? Pick them up off the ground like gravel?
Contacts and networks imply there are autonomous individuals participating in relationship. I do not see that sort of relationship being strong enough to hold post collapse. People will have needs that wont be me met. The only way they accept that is from accepting a leader they believe in. The resources need to be distributed fairly through the tribe then people can accept hardship.
If there are autonomous pockets of resource ala contacts and networks ala haves and have nots force will be used.
We have a trading relationship (contacts and resources). You have a ball of twine. You want to trade it for the food I have for your children. You offer me a trade. I refuse. Do you go watch your children die now with a perfectly good G3 lying on the table?
The alternative is a strong fair leader who distributes resources. Being a leader is within human capabilities. It is not BS, a hype or a con.
unfortunately your strong and fair leader—assuming there is such a creature—well require assistance in his daily doings.
in the history of mankind there has never been a strong and fair leader in that context.
they are driven by their own genetic forces to take for themselves and those who are willing to help them
If you cannot grasp that point, look at what’s happening right now as the next US government is being formed/
Kinda like expecting a banker to be compassionate….
It still seems as though leaders can be strong and fair, after they take some off the top for themselves.
Very interesting thoughts, VK and ocuda
We just can’t define a leader without a context. It can be an absolutist monarch, or rather some kind of aristrocracy. I am thinking in a 5000 people town… If 10 people invest 30 thousand usd each in prepping that’s enough for the whole village. There can be a primum inter pares… Many configurations are possible
If the whole world were the United States, your statement “except for metallurgical coal, which is a small percentage, almost all coal is used to make electrical power,” would be true. The developed world has figured out that coal is very polluting, and stopped using it for home heating, and for heating water to wash clothes and to recycle materials, and for making concrete. The developed world is not trying to advance “coal to liquid” either.
When I visited India (admittedly briefly), I saw a lot of direct coal use. The pollution level in Mumbai was just horrible. There seems to still be a moderate amount direct coal use in China as well. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_in_China
The United States stock market, like many other markets, will never again decline. You heard it from me here. Notice that this is not the same thing as saying they are functional. Think on this one for awhile.
It would be like an antique sitting in a warehouse, listed for a million dollars, but nobody ever buys or sells it. It just sits there. Whoever owns it never sells, because he has so much other financial wealth that he never needs the liquidity. Meanwhile, nobody buys, because nobody out there has any money or would think of buying at that price.
That’s what’s slowly happening to our economy, if you pay attention. Everything is being priced very highly and then sort of cordoned off. The reason being is that a free pricing market might actually gasp, result in deflation, and that is anathema to the managers of the system, who as I’ve said many times, need inflation and high prices to keep the workers on the treadmill.
We are being killed, slowly boiled. It’s actually interesting to watch this in action. It’s the end of our world! Nobody would have made this up, even 15 years ago. It’s interesting to watch everything just sort of shut down.
It’s very interesting that the St Louis FED shows the adjusted monetary base slowly declining since mid 2014. It’s not inflation that is driving up the market. It is more likely bond money getting out of old US bonds as the rate climbs. It does feel like it will go up forever. That coupled with money from around the world looking to invest in dollar denominated instruments as other central banks devalue their currencies. The American dollar is the last horse standing at the glue factory corral.
Interesting point! I haven’t been following the monetary base. If it has been falling at the same time oil prices have been falling, it fits in with all of our other problems.
With very low interest rates, prices of assets can go very high, because at low interest rates, the monthly payment to own these assets drops very low, so many can own them. This, in fact, seems to be a major source of the run-up in prices of assets between 1981 and now.
I have a hard time believing that asset prices can stay high, if interest rates go up at all. If interest rates go up much at all, it will be very difficult to repay debt with interest. The whole system seems likely to collapse. In that sense, you may be right in one sense–we have a system in which asset prices may keep rising until essentially the end; at that point they will fall straight to zero.
A slightly different scenario might be one in which asset prices ratchet down slowly from a peak. For example, perhaps a cut in oil supply allows oil prices to spike for a while. The spike in oil prices would lead to recessionary impacts in oil importing countries. These recessionary impacts would quickly reduce assets prices, allowing the economy to hold on a bit longer. Asset prices could temporarily fall during the recessionary impacts. The question is whether there is really any chance that prices could spike back up again.
There is much teeth gnashing over the threat to raise rates… HK is tied to US policy due to the currency peg… property would be hit…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-07/hong-kong-faces-housing-risks-as-fed-tightening-looms-imf-says
FE said,
“There is much teeth gnashing over the threat to raise rates”.
It is likely that all this business of raising interest rates is part of “show and games” to make the world think everything is normal. Real interest rates are impacted by “open market operations” of the FED. Open market operations can always be conducted to “not raise” interest rates.
Mansoor
Ten year treasuries were as low as 1.46% on July 29, 2016. Now I see that they are 2.49%. The big uptick has to affect interest rates on mortgages. If the Federal Reserve is trying to keep interest rate steady through its open market operations, it is not working very well.
Not necessarily … or so it would seem
I was into Westpac a few weeks ago doing my part to keep BAU rolling by piling on debt…. and was speaking to the mortgage lady about options…
I took the one year locked rate — and mentioned that I expected the rather high rates in NZ to continue to go down…
Her comment was that even though the rates have gone down in the past couple of years — this is not really been reflected in the retail mortgage rates…. they have barely budged…
There is no mention as to why the retail rates have not dropped in the NZ MSM….
One has to wonder if the same would be the case for higher rates…. not sure how the cost of money can go up — but rates remain low….. but I can imagine that the central banks would move heaven and earth to not allow actual rates paid by businesses, governments and individuals to move upwards — because if we get a significant uptick….
That triggers extinction.
Oops! I would imagine Saudi Arabia is as well.
A couple of loose ends need tidied up. Complication, eg replacing minimal legislation with spagetti, eg the US Glass-Stegall (37 pages) was replaced by Dodd-Frank (849 pages), the change is relatively simple but places a greater regulatory burden (reduces company profits all else being equal).
Complexity requires greater interconection between agents. I’d suggest India’s rush toward digital money as an example. Cash is relatively simple : two people plus the government plus, maybe the Central Bank, though the government and the Central bank are passive observers for all but the largest transactions. Complexity arrives in the form of digital credit. The banks, the credit card companies, the telephone companies, the electricity utilities are all active intermediaries, and there may be more that I haven’t thought of.
If you can think of better examples I’d be interested to hear any suggestions.
Take the TPP treaty. As Steve Keen said, a free trade agreement only requires one line of text. The TPP is 6000 pages long! That alone disqualifies it as a free trade event. There is of course no such thing as free trade. There could be such a thing as fair trade, but the puppet masters wouldn’t want that!
Free trade adds to complexity because there are more actors and more links, and we have a benefit because overall per capita productivity increases.
These Trade Agreements are more about creating and extending legal monopolies, so you get the worst of both worlds. If it were otherwise there would be no need for secrecy.
It is this complexity that tends to push the system down. For example, it is not clear to me that India can withdraw all of the (sort of ) large bills plus try to make it hard for people to own gold without creating a practically unfixable problem. We can see all of the problems Europe is having with banks and credit. Having a large number of Indian people who speak only their own dialect and don’t really read needing to use banks is going to be a problem. Many would no doubt need to walk to the bank. This may be a problem, especially for the elderly.
It looks like India planned on people rushing to take out credt cards thus they expected to have less than half the number of IOU’s previously in circulation. To judge by the recent updates on timing for issuing the new notes, there may eventually be more paper money in circulation after the event than before. I note they seem to be keeping the projected figures out of the MSM.
If it costs $100 to produce a barrel of today… then that is the price we pay… there is no room to negotiate the price. If the free market can provide the money… then the money is extracted though cannibalization of the economy. One way or another we pay $100 per barrel. Had it not been so we wouldn’t have oil today. The cannibalization will continue until the global economy collapses… and then we die.
Exactly !!!
And the only thing that matters is how much oil in left in the KSA Ghawar field.
Saudi Arabia might spill the beans on the world’s biggest oil secret
http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi
skepticism over exactly how much sits beneath the Saudi desert. The world’s largest oil field, Ghawar, has been producing since the 1950s, raising speculation about the longevity of the supergiant oilfield. It alone is thought to hold around 75 billion barrels, and it churns out more than 5 million barrels every single day. Surely, it cannot continue like this indefinitely, but the Kingdom has not revised its official reserves for years, which have stood at 260 billion barrels since the 1980s. It is hard to overstate how valuable this information is, and how fiercely Saudi leadership protected it.
Saudi Arabia is now prepared to unveil not just its financials, but also the long sought after data surrounding its oil reserves. “Everything that Saudi Aramco has, that will be shared, that will be verified by independent third parties,”Khalid al-Falih, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, told the Financial Times in an interview. That would include, “reserves … costs [and] profitability indicators.” He went to lengths to emphasize Saudi Arabia’s seriousness about the IPO, in an effort to dampen skepticism. “This is going to be the most transparent national oil company listing of all time,” he said
its reserves still stand at 260 billion barrels. After all, how could such a figure stay constant when it is producing 9 to 10 million barrels every day, which adds up to a few billion barrels each year? Aramco would have to add billions of barrels of newly discovered reserves on an annual basis in order to prevent its reserve base from declining. It is doubtful that it has done that consistently since the 1980
sharply lower reserve estimate could send oil futures up if fears over supply surface, and it might also affect Saudi Arabia’s credit rating.
Aramco is preparing to launch the IPO in 2018, which means that it will need to publish data on its oil reserves before then. The oil world’s biggest secret could soon be publicly released
Question….how do you define “reserves”?…
Saudi reserves won’t mean anything when their net exports go to zero in a few years.
Best to sell it off now!
An oil executive I met briefly recently told me Saudis are only paying about $3 or so to extract a barrel of oil. Ghawar is still coming up trumps if that is true.
It is more than three dollars, but it is a low amount. The big cost for oil extraction is taxes. Oil taxes are what fund a whole lot of governments. Saudi Arabia has to borrow huge amounts of money, because it is not getting enough tax renue right now. We talk about “fiscal break even” prices for oil exporting countries. This is what they need with taxes. This is one chart of how much governments needed in 2014. It is hard to believe that they would be lower now.
Thanks, Gail. Does the graph include the tax burden? As I have said before the Tax is not an essential expense, it is a voluntary one which governments [MS ones] can choose to charge or not as they wish. The export revenues are valuable of course.
Governments must get the funds to run their countries one way or another. The usual way is some combination of taxes. Some of these taxes may be on income of workers. Some may be on resource extraction. Some may be on imports. Some may be designated carbon taxes. What happens is that when the price of oil falls, the taxes that oil exporting countries would normally collect on oil product falls. This is why Venezuela is doing so badly. A country does not even have to be an oil exporter for this to be a problem. The low price of oil is affecting tax collections in Brazil. This is why Brazil has been having so many problems lately. It didn’t have the funds it needed to operate the Olympics. Saudi Arabia would collapse if it didn’t collect taxes. It has been greatly ramping up debt, but even it cannot completely offset the loss of tax revenue with debt.
You view of how the economy has a tiny element of truth in it, but it for the most part wrong. Debt is like frosting on the cake. You can put a bit of debt on top of a tax-based system, but that is about all; the basics are always taxes. When the opportunity gradient is negative, your ability to use debt drops pretty much to zero. Debt based systems tend to collapse, as the opportunity gradient flattens.
Not sure about that….
If governments take in less taxes then they generally cut back – see Saudi Arabia — and that is deflationary ….
Of course there is the Japan model…. you just run monetize everything with the printing press 🙂
This just in today;
https://mishtalk.com/2016/12/10/dow-20000-another-magazine-curse/#more-42709
A look at all the hype assailing us.
Masquerading as real news 🙂
2018 is my pick for oil company bailouts to start picking up steam based on their financial sheets. I expect other energy companies and banks to be included around that time as well but it remains to be seen what other parlor tricks these guys got up their sleeves. I don’t think we’ve seen the real crazy stuff yet but it appears protectionism is now going mainstream.
Reserve is an unaudited amount of whatever amount Saudi Arabia chooses. It should reflect the price of oil, and how much taxes the government can collect at that price. If taxes are too low, the government will tend to collapse. All of this is too complicated for a “reserve” amount.
The amount that can be extracted depends on how long the World economy and the Saudi economy can continue. If either of them fails, the rest is left in the ground, I expect.
Also, how soon the people of Saudi Arabia rebel regarding lack of things that they have become accustomed to, because Saudi Arabia cannot ramp up their borrowing enough to keep the economy going at a low oil price.
that’s always been one of my main lines of thinking in all this
that the saudi fields will not run out, but that their unemployable young men will figure out that their lifestyle is over, and decide to fight to prove that oil is infinite
which is also what will happen in the usa as people realise that millions of jobs are not going to materialise out of nowhere, and that the coalmines and steelmills are not going to reopen
It works that way for a while, until diminishing return causes wages falls too low. Then the price of oil drops too low, say $50 per barrel when the cost of extraction (including taxes etc.) is $100 per barrel. It seems like the too low oil price will eventually bring the system down.
Sort of sums it up
‘Finally, hedge-fund managers see difficulty in ending quantitative easing.
“Central banks are sadly helping to create the ‘black hole,’ and the sucking noise and pull is getting bigger,” said Aberdeen’s Mr. McCaffery, “but you just have to keep going as your alternative options as a central banker are just too unpalatable to consider.
Using an analogy we first came up with in 2009, McCaffrey slammed the use of a drug placebo to keep the system intact: “More methadone is not going to help, a form of cold turkey [is] needed, but no central bank is going to do that,” he added. He warns governments’ debt-to-GDP levels have risen.
The punchline:
“In the long term, it implies rates can never go up, as the damage will be extraordinary in nature,” he said, as they struggle with their debt loads. For now, however, the market which moments ago hit new all time highs, is blissfully ignoring all of the above.’
Zerohedge
The thing is …
For a long time we have had a dominant economic system…. called capitalism… it is what we learned about in high school economics class… and in universities… it is what business schools base their curriculum.
But now we have a new system – it is called The New Normal….
The rules are very different from the old system of capitalism…
Up is down — a circle is now a square — 1+1 = whatever we want it to equal
And as one can imagine — because we were raised in a different system we shocked by these developments — we see them as unworkable — insane …
But at the end of the day they are what is keeping BAU alive…. so they are not insane… they are what needs to be done given the circumstances i.e. no more cheap oil
Of course The New Normal is not a fix….it is not a perpetual economic motion machine…. it is a palliative… it is duct taping a head back onto a decapitated body…. (behead 2008)\
But it is necessary – if we were to apply the old rules — we would have collapsed years ago….
well said eddie the system will limp along for many years as the insanity goes to new levels of horror it gives one the motivation necessary to realise why they do it
Many years is debatable. I think financial collapse can’t wait until much longer than 2018 judging by financial sheets of energy companies. Obviously bailouts will be resurfacing but they will be fighting a majority opposition. And then there’s the EU breakup saga that is ongoing, at any which point could ignite a DB derivative bomb taking down the financial system overnight. We’re definitely going to witness what other tricks they have up their sleeves to paper over the financial problems.
I think that has 100% probability. For the timing: Expect the worst but live the best.
Already planning my hobby garden, twice as big as last years. 🙂
I’ve gone the other direction … I green cropped half of my beds… to cut down on the amount of work…
If we get to a next season … I am planning to plant mostly strawberries… I like strawberries… and they are not much work….
Now I get it
https://youtu.be/8UQK-UcRezE
I do heirloom tomatoes mostly. The taste is addictive.
Tango-
I do heirlooms too. Brandywine is the boss.
I did 12 varieties last year. Pineapple tomatoes are hard to beat for fresh eating. Solar flare is one of my newer favorites too.
Timing this is impossible…. we can make guesses though
FE said,
“Timing this is impossible”
I don’t think even those “in charge” know the timing.
Mansoor
I agree. You can’t quit quantitative easing. Selling back the assets on central bank balance sheets would cause interest rates to spike, and the whole system to fail.
The other side of the problem is that at some point you certainly have to quit growing QE. The liquidity left in the market is too low, when too large a share of the government debt is bought up by central banks.
The world needs a rich uncle of last resort to buy up all the stocks, bonds and derivatives that need to be propped up and then just sit on them. If this rich uncle doesn’t exist, can we invent him or just make believe he’s there?
Uncle Permie?
Shouldnt lack of liquidity make so it takes very little QE to drive asset prices?
If the purpose of QE is keeping the system solvent it shouldnt matter if they have to QE a lot or only a little.
You may be right.
I think of very low interest rates as driving up asset prices. Right now, interest rates tend to be very low, because the economy is not growing very much. There is not much to distribute as profits that can be used to pay interest.
The purpose of QE is to lower interest rates. If interest rates are naturally very low, then not much QE is needed to drive up asset prices.
The purpose of forcing up asset prices is to make the 99% be indebted to the 1% [more accurately the 0.0001%, the 85 families.] Michael Hudson [an MMT supporter] explains what happens here and in many talks;
http://michael-hudson.com/2016/11/keen-hudson-unpick-historical-path-to-global-recovery/
Of course, history tells us that the reason that economies fail is because the 99% don’t get enough of the output of the system. This is partly because the overall output of the system is no longer growing because of diminishing returns. Also, the system is becoming more hierarchical in nature because of what I call “increased complexity.” This leaves the 99% out.
The so-called wealth of the 1% is partly loans to the 99%. But it is also assets such as stocks and bonds with pumped up values. With diminishing returns, all of this debt fails. The wealthy are as bad off as the previously poor people. The government cannot collect enough taxes, either from the 99% or the 1%.
Great article Gail! If I may add a few observations (ok they are opinions) on some disconnects.
Debt is a public domain. That is clear. Debt instruments are created so industrial civilization can exist.
Taking a loan out is like riding a public bus. That loan the instruments it is denominated in and the business that extends it to you are entirely a creation of government. The loan is entirely a artificial construct WITH the exception is that easy to extract energy is the only thing that makes it work.
Two ideas are key to the disconnect.
1;earning
2;ownership
The means by which we earn is debt. The means by which we own is debt. The disconnect is that people believe that these ideas have a reality based on something other than debt. The norm is a belief that earning and ownership have a reality other than the artificial construct of debt.
Earning and ownership have a basis other than debt but not the one supposed. Earning and ownership is backed by force. If i break into your house you shoot me dead and face no repercussions, If you are not home and the police catch me I get restrained quite forcibly and put in a confined space with nasty buggers.
The whole rest of the natural world understands force is what determines resource allocation. The beetle being eaten by ants understands it. Humans persist in ideas that detach them from the real world. They believe that their notions have a substance beyond what the natural world allows. I have found one constant with humans that spans all belief subsets. They adopt beliefs that enable control of consumption of the most resources possible. A acknowledgment of force is not acceptable from the majority norm standpoint as so it is not a successful strategy for resource acquisition. Force must be kept in the shadows philosophically and emotionally regardless of the actual belief set adopted if that belief set is to be effective.
People are very resistant to ideas that allow a understanding that the resources they control derive from force. They have a uncanny radar that judges whether a particular idea will allow that understanding long before the rest of what their essence is able to formulate a judgment. They will attack any idea that uncovers use of force using all means at their disposal.
Thanks Chumba, great insight. Human nature, so many assume we have the ability change.
So many associate freedom with the right and privilege of abusing resources. That is what isn’t changing until people have it forced upon them. So basically collapse is inevitable.
Thanks for the insights! You are right, in most of nature, force is what determines which animal controls and area, or which plants/animals/insects dominate.
We use debt based systems instead. In fact, historically there has been a lot more force underlying control of resources. It is only since we have had fossil fuel resources that the extent of killing to get resources has been reduced. The killing wasn’t even necessarily between tribes–quite a bit of it was among family members, or even built into the system, such as violent games that killed off a percentage of young adults (probably to keep the population down). As long as we seemed to have plenty of resources, and plenty of debt to pull those resources out of the ground, we could have democracies, with elected leaders, and pretend that violence was a thing of the past.
If we can’t find some sort of a favorable religious end to our predicament, then it would seem likely that violence would go back up again, as we reach limits.
BTW my suggestion for a sustainability tax was not serious. I realize that we are swimming upstream in the Mississippi River whenever we try to take sustainability seriously.
My personal two favorite things of modernity are hot running water and refrigeration. #1can be done on most days direct solar. Refrigeration can be done with pv. That plus living in a locale where wood heating is doable makes up my current get by for now plan.
Refrigeration and antibiotics and waste disposal. Internet and triple bypass id overrated.
Antibiotics are a good one, forgotten by most.
You don’t need them 99.99% of the time, but if you don’t have them when you do need them you’re probably a goner.
Its on my to-do list to stockpile them, haven’t gotten around to that one yet.
Start buying.
https://jet.com/product/detail/1dd0b4c87bd44067b978e9501270b1c8?jcmp=pla:ggl:gen_animals_pet_supplies_a3:pet_supplies_fish_supplies_a3_other:na:PLA_345535620_23673114540_pla-161650360140:na:na:na:2&code=PLA15&ds_c=gen_animals_pet_supplies_a3&ds_cid=&ds_ag=pet_supplies_fish_supplies_a3_other&product_id=1dd0b4c87bd44067b978e9501270b1c8&product_partition_id=161650360140&gclid=CLOa4KvR6tACFU9tfgodC3ELvA&gclsrc=aw.ds
lemons just eat lots of lemons disease wont have a chance
Note to self–stockpile enough lemons to last 50 years.
You could move to Bali … a lot of expats living there swear by the faith healers…. I kid you not…
It is not unusual to have people bring up the name of such and such faith healer…. have you been? oooh ahhhh…
Then you have the crowd who believe that various crystal stones will give you energy and health…
Antibiotics are losing effectiveness right now, because of mutations. Without continued new antibiotics, we will lose the battle to microbes.
I have a bunch of boxes of what the pharmacist in Hong Kong tells me are the most frequently used antibiotics….
The thing is… there are so many infectious diseases
You’d need half a pharmacy stockpiled… try getting a prescription from a doctor in a western country for a stockpile of these drugs… also they go off after some years…
Be sure to have something to help you through the cholera epidemic – when the sewage pumps stop… people will be shittin-g in the street … even in rural areas you would be surprised at how quickly sh it builds up and enters the water table and streams …
I live in a low density area yet the local councils strictly enforce rules related to what happens to sh it …. because they know that it does not take much to make a lot of people very sick…
And it’s not just human sh it —– in a small town not far away from us — cow shi t got into the water table …. and virtually the entire town was on the bog or at the doctor…. http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/312100/gastro-bug-hit-5000-in-havelock-north
I would be more worried about human shi t than cows…. because there will be no cows within a short time of BAU ending…. they will shot and eaten…
Which leads me to another point regarding food — virtually all animals are stuff full of antibiotics… when they are removed the animals will die of various diseases…
7.4B rats on a ship … without any food.
This would make for outstanding reality teevee!
The American way of life is not negotiable.
“Entropy is the freaking Terminator” tagio
Try to negotiate with him… the Terminator.
That’s very arrogant. How can you say something like that?
I don’t know the author of the comment but I took it to be representative of how receptive most are to Gail’s message. It’s easy to feel like part of the solution as you drive around in your $85K Tesla. Most of the world wants a piece of the pie while it’s being served. That’s my read on the non negotiable comment. It’s the meme that sustains the system we call civilization.
Right!
“The American way of life is not negotiable.”
“That’s very arrogant. How can you say something like that?”
President George H. W. Bush said it at the Earth Summit in 1992 in Rio.
I was just about to mention that. Bush has a lot of famous quotes actually. “Our country is strong. We go forward to defend freedom and all that is good and just in our world.” – Right before we invaded Iraq a 2nd time.
You won’t like downsizing.
Good grief.
UNITED NATIONS, May 1 2012 (IPS) – Just before the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, some of the industrial nations, and specifically the United States, were lambasted for their obscenely high consumption of the world’s finite resources, including food, water and energy.
The world was being gradually destroyed, environmentalists warned, by unsustainable consumption.
Hitting back at critics, then U.S. president George H.W. Bush famously declared: “The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period.”
And physics, nature, evolution won’t negotiate with Americans 😉
The good old Bush quote – we will see how long it lasts for how many Americans. In a way the way of life of over 50 million isn’t that good now – and they will be the new norm. Probably Bush meant that by his line 😉
It also can’t really last.
To piggy back on what edwinlloyd said,
PV efficiency is currently in the neighborhood of 15%. Your average square meter of PV will yield about 1000 Watts which translates to 150Watts of power/square meter. Factor in storage solution efficiency, the avg sized roof and the folks who live under it… That’s not a lot of energy A back of the envelope calculation is not very promising for your avg car driving, meat eating, refrigerator using, toaster oven using North American.
In other words significant lifestyle adjustments are needed. Or reduced complexity.
Efficiency should improve, and associated finite energy costs will likely increase due to EROEI thus leading to Gail’s #2 issue “opportunity gradient.”
How will the emotional animal respond to a decreasing slice of the pie ?
The answer is likely to be 42
The traditional solution often seems to be war.
You won’t like downsizing.
I already have. How about you ?
Haven’t, when forced will prefer it over being dead.
Best wishes to us all, but I reckon unless there is a magnitudinal synergy of some form or another things look rather bleak. Downsize seems like such a watered down term.
How about “Degrowth“? Every two years, these folks have conferences to talk about their proposed solution.
How does that address fuel ponds?
Did you read the End of More article? What part do you disagree with? Anything you don’t understand about what happens if the world attempted to downsize?
During WWII, and for a while after, an old, native stone building in our small Texas town was converted to a community canning center. Special equipment had been installed. I don’t remember specifically what the equipment was for, but pressure was involved. My job, along with other boys and girls, was to do what we were told. I remember carrying empty jars in boxes from the back of pickups and stacking them against one wall. I remember carrying full jars to different vehicles to be taken away. I remember that the men wore hats and all the women wore hairnets. It was quite a sight to my eyes. And it was noisy. Lots of talking, lots of bustling around, and lots of cheerful laughter. It was quite place and I later realized that about 2,000 people were being fed for months due to that community effort. BTW, the old stone building had been the town jail for years, but the WPA or some such agency had built a new city hall including a new jail, a few years before WWII started.
These comments are a prime example of what FW could become…. if left unchecked….
Do we want a swamp… or a mountain peak?
The ultimate problem is that the system must grow or die.
If a Steady State Economy could work, parabolic dishes with Stirling engines can get around 30% energy efficiency from solar energy. The average American home uses 2 KW continuous average. so maybe 30 square meters would work if you could store the energy efficiently.
I think a large solar farm in the desert powering an aluminum smelter might be the best solution, then just use aluminum batteries when the sun is not shining.
In the desert next to an bauxite mine that doesn’t need water, next to a battery factory that doesn’t use plastic. Fully automated of course, no need to feed and house workers. The panels clean themselves and maintenance is not required.
Hi Gail!
I rarely post here, but I would like to post a comment.
I see the a World collapse unfolding right in front of our eyes. It has started in the middle east and will spread like virus from there.
Egypt seems to be up next, just read the Daily news from there…
http://www.egyptdailynews.com/
All the best,
Henrik
I forgot…. Thank You for a fantastic webesite!
The way the “collapse” seems to play out over the World is by surging prices (hyperinflation) because of collapsing currencies and decreasing demand because the currnency becomes too weak.
Of course it is not only in the middle east currencies are plunging…
I can count to 25 currencies which have plunged mora than 15 % against the USD so far only in 2016. I Think this will become far worse next year. This will put tremendous downwardpressure on the demand for commodities.
Here is an example what will happen:
http://www.bigstory.ap.org/article/da0631d051454bde8a29bbec6ef6ccbb/suriname-slides-economic-abyss-shadow-venezuela
Egypt is a former oil exporter that is in a lot of difficulty now. It recently devalued its currency by 50%, as I recall. It has covered some of its deficit with natural gas exports, but I am sure revenue is down on these as well. This is a chart showing the drop in Egypt’s oil exports (not fully up to date).
Interesting interview with Jim Rickards:
“…So the next time there is a crisis which, as I say, could be any day, it’s definitely imminent, the only source of liquidity is going to be the IMF World Money which they have a funny name for it, they call it the Special Drawing Right or SDR, but just think of it as world money. They don’t want to call it world money because that would scare people, but that’s what it is. They will print trillions of SDRs.
“It’ll take the IMF at least a few months, if not longer, to issue these SDRs. They can’t do it on demand. So during that several-month period, since they’re not going to have the money to give you your money back, they’re going to lock down the system. Money market funds will suspend redemptions, banks will be closed, ATMs will be reprogrammed maybe to give you, say, $300 a day for gas and groceries, stock exchanges will be closed…
“Everything that was too big to fail in 2008 is much, much bigger today. And if you take my point that the catastrophic risk increases exponentially, that means if we’ve doubled or tripled the system, the risk is way up beyond anything that we can imagine, beyond anything we’ve seen before, and I already made the point that the central banks are tapped out, they’re impotent in terms of their ability to stop it, so we’re going to have a crisis worse than any other, and they’re going to be powerless to stop it, and that’s why they’re going to lock down the system and freeze your money.”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4029377-end-game-global-economy
Interesting article. Jim Rickards may be right about SDRs issued by the IMF being the only available way to temporarily fix the world economy the world the next time around, which may not be very far away.
Also, he recommends keeping some type of tradable assets around (including currency) to cover the gap period. I wonder how well the world economy could hold together during a several month gap. I am guessing not very well.
Gail….brilliant insights as usual. Thanks.
Isn’t time to factor in global warming though? Our energy budget of burnable fossil fuels is somewhere between zero and 10 years more of what we’re doing – with zero being much the better number.
Put this into the mix and we’re facing a much bigger problem than just trying to keep the treadmill spinning. Mother nature is going to shut down our best efforts pretty quickly.
Interesting that Trump’s plan is reduce taxes and go hell bent on fossil fuels. Nice in the short term but boy, are these going to end badly.
and go hell bent on fossil fuels
What other option is there?
We know that things are going to end badly. I get frustrated with global warming because there is so little we can do about it. The only thing that we can do about it is collapse quicker–something that is not a popular strategy, and something that it is hard to engineer, because the self-organizing property of the economic and political systems tends to work toward approaches that actually do have a slight chance of increasing the time available to collapse (more debt and more energy products would tend to do that).
To some extent, the way things work out is “baked into the cake,” because of the way a self-organized system works.
The only thing that we can do about it is collapse quicker–something that is not a popular strategy,
http://cliparts.co/cliparts/kT8/nK8/kT8nK8Mxc.jpg
The quicker it happens the less mess we will leave behind. So there might be some survivors rather than insects and bugs. If it’s slow we will exhaust every possible accessible resource.
Doesn’t matter —- there will be no resources available post BAU no matter if it ends tonight — or in 10 years….because the low hangers have been picked — whatever it left in the ground will stay in the ground…
Then there are the spent fuel ponds… and dead soil….
And even if a near term collapse would provide some benefit — I would still prefer the 10 year time frame if given the choice….
Because I really do not care what is left behind once I am gone….
I want to LIVE! I want to LIVE! Whatever it takes!
I am beginning to feel like a central banker!
This is part of our original problem in associating life with convenience. Many people today in America feel it is their personal right and “Freedom” to do whatever the hell they want. Drive down the interstate doing 100 MPH in your SUV with the air conditioning up and the radio while the windows are down, OKAY! Have Dorritos brought to your belt via the Amazon conveyor belt, OKAY! Care to upsize your giant big gulp to 2 gallons, OKAY! I’m not making judgments and the situation is irreversible but somewhere along the way the rules to our system were not intended for post industrial revolution population levels and resource access.
Though not specifically on topic for the article I do think our biggest dilemma is to maintain energy growth in the face of the loss of increasingly dense energy sources. Apart from some non contaminating nuclear miracle which I place in the 0.1:% box, then we either admit that we are going to have a shrinking economic pie or we have to get our heads out of the sand and start learning how to do large scale immediate solar (which includes its derivatives of wind, wave, and hydro).
We keep hearing hand wringing about energy storage being the missing link. That stems from ‘in the box’ thinking that we must have 24 hour on demand availability of full power.
Here is a small thought experiment for a solar powered home. Solar pv supplies daytime needs for all appliances that are programmed to do the cooking, laundry, primary refrigeration of food + recharging of a battery bank for nighttime lighting and entertainment devices. Direct solar provides hot water + hot water for heating the home (can also be utilized in hot climes for some cooling). The home would utilize highly localized passive solar + extensive insulation to minimize the need for indoor climate modification.
This coupled with an industrial sector that fluctuated with day and night along with the seasons just like agriculture would give a path for the possibility of transition to a more organic (in tune with our earth and its environment) lifestyle. Making hay when the sun shines would apply to everyone, not just farmers.
Most transitions from one energy source to another have taken at least 50 years. How about leveling a transition tax on all fossil fuels used for transportation and power generation? It could only be used to provide tax credits for solar smart infrastructure build out. The economic distortion should be magnitudes less than ethanol corn subsidies.
That is my two cents before turning out my coal powered electric light. 😖
“How about leveling a transition tax on all fossil fuels used for transportation and power generation? It could only be used to provide tax credits for solar smart infrastructure build out.”
My experience is that the tax remains but within a year politicians have diverted the money somewhere deemed more important, maybe a new gigantic bridge.
Governments are the thing that fail in collapse, and they fail from lack of tax revenue. Fossil fuels are a major source of tax revenue. This has to be the case, because taxes are the way that the “energy surplus” of these organizations is transferred to the government.
If “solar smart infrastructure” needs a government subsidy, it is a sign that it is not adding anything to the economy; it is just living off the energy profits of fossil fuels. There is no way we can build an economy on such a system.
That’s a very precise way of putting it.
But incorrect.
But it’s not incorrect. Solar and wind demand subsidies in order to be “competitive” with fossil fuels. Fossil fuels pay taxes and dividends. It’s pretty clear which one works and which one doesn’t. Feel free to explain where that’s wrong.
Most everyone on this site have given up on the idea of BAU continuing much more than 20 years. 2030 is floated around commonly as a “that’s it” date.
Question is, will ultra wealthy make it more than that. I believe yes. If they are good. Get enuf diesel and fertilizer onto a right size/location island and spares for everything and you can live many years I think.
What about the rest of us? I dunno. This one is kind of hard to ‘outsmart’. There are a lot of smart people out there.
Volvo: “Hey, do you have any computers you need some software written for?”
Farmer: “Sorry pal, not today.”
Volvo: “Ok, then. See ya later”
Yeah this is another version of the thinking that a nation, state, county, suburb or selected group can remain an island of plenty in a sea of want. IMO we are all going down, in one way or another, survivors if any will be lucky, nothing more.
“Hey mister, can you help stake an American that’s down on his luck?”
Humphrey Bogart to John Huston in “Treasure of the Sierra Madre” (1948).
“Question is, will ultra wealthy make it more than that. I believe yes. If they are good. Get enuf diesel and fertilizer onto a right size/location island and spares for everything and you can live many years I think.”
Please look into the nuclear spent fuel pond situation and come back with how long you think people on private islands will be able to live.
Use the last drops of diesel to truck it all into the Pacific/Atlantic. Natural cooling there. But on that one we have to take action now and shut down all reactors and start the dumping. Not a problem in the first 50 years.
Wonder what a world would look like with poisoned oceans…. you are aware that the Fukushima cores are being cooled with water pumps… and that the water is running into the oceans day after day…
Now imagine taking the hundreds of thousands of tonnes of spent fuel rods (vs the tiny amount of fuel in the Fukushima cores) and bull dozing the whole lot into the ocean…
You have not thought this through
If we put it in the deepest place, the Mariana Trench, it’s not going to come to the surface in many many years, water there doesn’t circulate much. Plenty of time for other shit to go wrong. I go crazy when people say, oh this or that has to be secure for 10,000 years, or even 300,000 years. Oh we have to be “responsible”. Yeah right. We’re not responsible today with our CO2 emissions.
What are the chances that we are around in 10,000 years? 0.
“If we put it in the deepest place, the Mariana Trench, it’s not going to come to the surface in many many years, water there doesn’t circulate much. ”
Funny thing, warmer water and particles will tend to rise up relative to the cold water around them. If you have never seen a lava lamp before, I recommend watching one for a while and pondering what happens if you have a bunch of hot material in still water.
That comment surely belongs in the DelusiSTANI Hall of Fame…
I marvel at your ability to conceive of such total nonsense… I could spend weeks pounding my head against the Brick Wall — and I could not come close to such absolute anti-brilliance.
Un Bravo. Un Bravo. No more no more… please… no more….
Volvo, I agree with you. Ocean dumping is the way to go.
I guess you missed the comment about how you cannot move the spent fuel rods to the ocean… or you just ignore that little obstacle… just like you ignore anything that does not fit into your delusional thought process whereby if it can be imagined … it can happen….
Did you also miss the comment about how tossing fuel into the oceans would poison them…
There will be virtually no food on the land…. and this action would kill whatever is left in the sea…
Sounds like a great plan!
Use the last drops of diesel to truck it all into the Pacific/Atlantic. Natural cooling there. But on that one we have to take action now and shut down all reactors and start the dumping. Not a problem in the first 50 years.
It’s my understanding (might be wrong), that the spent fuel cannot be moved until it has been dry casked and can’t be dry casked until it has been cooled. Once it’s been dry casked, the problem is far less. At this point, might as well dump it in a desert.
Good point… and it has to spent years in a fuel pond before it is safe to dry cask….
Not really good for the fish and other inhabitants, however.
‘Not a problem in the first 50 years’
And here we have a prime example of Koombaya … when it doubt just make something up that makes you feel better…
Even a retarded submoron who had their brain sliced in half in trying to lick the juice out of an empty bean can could in theory be made to understand that dumping hundreds of thousands of tonnes of radioactive waste into the ocean …. is technically… a very bad idea…
But Koombayaists are generally not that mentally deficient … and somewhere deep down they realize this is probably insane…
But then their DelusiTANTI upbringing kicks in and out comes this absurd ’50 year’ statement…
No facts — no research — no nothing — just make up whatever and shout it …. as if it were true.
And to top it off — no explanation of how you get burning hot spent fuel — that MUST be kept in electronically controlled high tech spent fuel ponds —- to the deepest ocean trench located many thousands of km away….
I guess you just load the whole f9876ing lot into the back of a thousand C130’s…. along with a few buckets of ice…. fly over the ocean … and heave it all out into the water…
These ideas are insults to idiots… they are beyond submoron .. beyond profound retardation …
In fact I am surprised that anyone who would subscribe to these ‘ideas’ is able to use the FW site… I am surprised such people would know how to open a door…. I imagine them standing their staring at a door knob for hours trying to work out what to do with it….
I think the first realization we need to come to is that we cannot keep up the electric grid, period. We need specific fuels to do this, in a very short time frame. And the prices need to by high enough.
So if anyone wants to use solar energy (in any form) they need to use it off the grid. This very fact makes it almost impossible to fix our current situation. Each of the local installations needs to have inverters to fully get the electricity to grid standard. I am doubtful that most modern appliances could run on intermittent electricity, but no doubt some could.
There is no way in the world that we could maintain energy growth with this approach!
“I am doubtful that most modern appliances could run on intermittent electricity, but no doubt some could.”
Using new houses and appliances optimized for intermittent energy would no doubt drive growth for a while, as everyone tears up all the existing stuff, burns some oil and replaces it all with new stuff.
Growth is not an option.
When we think of economic growth, we are thinking of year on year exponential increase of productive output. In order that there may be that growth in output, there must be a corresponding year on year exponential growth in input of the resources the economy processes. Every single process transforms energy in its function. There must be exponential growth in energy input into the economy in order for there to be any exponential growth of anything at all out of the economy. In order for that energy input to grow exponentially, there must be exponential growth in the gathering or harvesting of that energy. The energy needs to be of the right form, must be affordable, must be in excess of the energy input when harvesting.
Given the need for financial resources in the harvesting of the energy, and given that it is usually the case that such financial resources come in the form of credit, lenders need to see that the business which is harvesting the energy will be able to service the debt over the entire time span of the loan term. In order for that to happen, not only does it need to be seen that the business harvesting the energy will be able to make a profit over the timeframe of the operation of the business, but also that the economy to which the energy is being supplied will be able to afford to purchase the energy at a price that will make it possible for the business to repay the loan and interest in full and on time.
We already have a situation where banks are not as willing as they were to lend to some of the businesses supplying oil and gas extracted from shale formations.
We already see, also, that energy resources are offering less and less in energy terms for the energy inputted into harvesting them.
In addition to the resources situation (about which a great deal more can be said), we also have a very serious situation where systems are concerned.
The oceans are already dying. Fish stocks are rapidly depleting. Marine algae populations are collapsing. The global thermohaline circulation is slowing. Coral reefs are bleaching and not recovering (in other words, the “rainforests of the oceans” are dying).
How much more stress are we willing to subject the oceans to just for the sake of reaching for growth that we cannot have?
Another issue with growth is that, thanks to thermodynamics, economic growth itself fuels global warming. Whatever form of energy we use, however we may use it, there will always be a portion transformed into chaotic waste heat. We already have a substantial blanket of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, to which more are being added every year. Adding more heat to a system which is already trapping more and more of the heat from natural and human sources merely quickens the pace at which we reach the point where Earth is too hot for us to live here. We have nowhere else to go, and no means by which to get there.
The cup which we ourselves continue to poison, is the only cup available for us to drink from.
I agree with pretty much everything you say except the last part of this sentence, ” The energy needs to be of the right form, must be affordable, must be in excess of the energy input when harvesting.”
This is a peak oil belief, but as far as I can see it is not correct.
We have a wide range of energy types. The economy needs enough energy in total, certainly net of what is used in extracting it. But whether this needs to be for every kind of energy individually is not at all apparent. A lot of what our economy does is leverage low quality resources, to make higher-quality resources. We can use a lot of low quality coal to make a lesser amount of oil, or of electricity, if that is what suits our needs. In fact, with “coal to oil” plants, and with electricity generating plants, we do this all of the time.
Peak oilers were concerned about “running out” of energy. In fact, we could have a huge amount of energy, if we could design our economy so we humans could afford it. I think “affordable” pretty much covers the “net energy” issue. The Peak Oilers were basically concerned about something that is not very important, and is also something that we cannot really measure very well (despite all of the peak oilers’ attempts).
What you have left out is that energy per capita must be high enough for the economy to continue. This completely gets lost in most of what peak oilers’ say. With their focus on the EROEI of fossil fuels, they miss the major point of our problem. It is the return on human labor that is important–in other words, the wages of those low in the hierarchy. It takes enough energy supplies for this to happen. The endless focus on EROEI of fossil fuels is to me a distraction.
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