The world economy can appear to be operating quite well but can be hiding a major problem that causes it to be fragile. My presentation The World’s Fragile Economic Condition (PDF) explains why we should expect financial problems if energy consumption stops growing sufficiently rapidly. In fact, a global sell off in the equity markets, such as we have started to see recently, is one of the kinds of energy-related impacts we would expect.
This is Part 2 of a two-part write up of the presentation. In Part 1 (The World’s Fragile Economic Condition – Part 1), I explained that a large portion of the story that we usually hear about how the world economy operates and the role energy plays is not really correct. I explained that the world economy is a self-organized system that depends upon energy growth to support its own growth. In fact, there seems to be a dose-response. The faster energy consumption grows, the faster the world economy seems to grow. The period with fastest growth occurred between 1940 and 1980. During this period, interest rates were rising and workers saw their wages increase as fast as, or faster than, inflation. After 1980, the rate of growth in energy consumption fell, and the world needed to tackle its growth problems with a different approach, namely growing debt.
In this post, I explain how debt (and its partner, the sale of shares of stock) help pull the economy forward. With these types of financing, investment in new production becomes almost effortless as long as the return on investment stays high enough to repay debt with interest and to repay shareholders adequately. At some point, however, diminishing returns sets in because the most productive investments are made first.
The way diminishing returns plays out in energy extraction is by raising the cost of producing energy products. In order for the sales prices of energy products to rise to match the rising cost of production, rising demand is needed to give an upward “tug” on sales prices. This rising demand is normally produced by adding increasing amounts of debt at ever-lower interest rates. At some point, the debt bubble created in this manner becomes overstretched. We seem to be reaching that point now, especially in vulnerable parts of the world economy.
Slide 34
Let’s first look at a slide from Part 1, explaining the way in which the economy works like a giant factory.
Slide 20
As long as energy products are very inexpensive, it is possible for the economy to expand very rapidly. When this happens, the Goods and Services produced in Box 4 are able to grow so rapidly that all of the Resource Providers in Box 1 can be well compensated, simply by using a quasi-barter arrangement, facilitated by the use of money. With this approach, Resource Providers can get adequately paid using the Goods and Services produced in close to the same time period. Something of this nature occurred prior to 1970, when inflation-adjusted oil prices were less than $20 per barrel (Part 1, Slide 26).
Slide 35
If the growth of the economy slows, so that not enough Goods and Services are being created by the economy to use this approach, it is possible to work around the problem by adding debt. Adding debt makes it possible to substitute promised future Goods and Services for already produced Goods and Services.
Slide 36
Added debt makes it seem like more goods and services are available to pay resource providers.
Selling shares of stock acts very much like debt, because the funds provided by these shares also provide access to goods and services that others have already produced. In the case of the sale of shares of stock, the promises are for future dividends, capital appreciation, and partial ownership of the company.
Slide 37
Growing debt looks like it can solve all problems! No wonder that Keynesian economists found it so useful. But the return must remain high enough to repay debt with interest.
Slide 38
Borrowing money generally comes with the requirement that the amount borrowed be repaid with interest. If the energy purchased using debt allows the economy to grow fast enough, there is no difficulty in repaying debt with interest. If energy is very inexpensive (equivalent to oil cost less than $20 per barrel in inflation-adjusted price), this payback system generally works because a large amount of energy can be purchased for a small quantity of debt.
If the price of the energy rises, much more debt is required for the same amount of energy produced. For example, if oil is $80 per barrel, the affordability is much lower. It takes four times as much debt to pay for a barrel of oil. Repayment of debt with interest becomes more difficult.
Slide 39
In Part 1, we observed that US long-term interest rates have been falling almost continuously since 1981. This situation of falling interest rates led to falling mortgage payments for a given amount borrowed. Because of the lower monthly payments, homes became more affordable; in other words, there tended to be more potential buyers for homes at a given price level. Indirectly, the increased affordability of home ownership tended to raise the resale value of homes. It also encouraged the building of additional homes.
Building homes indirectly requires the use of many different types of commodities. Metals are used in pipes and in wiring. Wood is used for framing. Concrete is often used for the basement. Oil is needed to haul these goods to the site where the home is to be built. Thus, indirectly, falling interest rates tend to raise commodity prices.
Slide 40
Many assets are purchased with debt. If interest rates are very low, purchasing these assets becomes more affordable. The sale of shares of stock provides another way of raising capital for a company. In the case of oil-producing companies, the purchasers of shares of stock often think, “If extraction costs are rising, surely oil prices and other energy prices will rise as well.” This belief allows the price of shares of stock to be bid up to a high level.
Slide 41
When asset prices rise, economists sometimes refer to the wealth effect. Homeowners feel richer if their homes are worth more, and they can borrow more against them. Owners of shares of stock feel richer if their shares of stock have higher values. Owners of pension plans are happy when stock prices are high, because it looks as if these shares can be sold, allowing the plans to meet their pension obligations.
If the debt bubble stops growing, then the commodity price bubble cannot continue to grow. In fact, it may abruptly pop. This is what happened in the second half of 2008, when oil prices dropped precipitously, from $147 per barrel to the low $30s.
Slide 42
Government pension plans such as Social Security are not treated as debt because they are not guaranteed, but they act in much the same way as debt.
Slide 43
The gray bars on Slide 43 indicate recessions. These recessions often seem to be intentionally caused. If a person looks closely, it is possible to see that in most cases, increases in US short-term interest rates preceded recessions. In fact, if a person looks at the minutes of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee, it is sometimes clear that the Open Market Committee raised interest rates to intentionally pop asset bubbles in order to “reduce volatile food and energy prices.”
Slide 44
The huge interest rate spike to 18% in 1981 on Slide 43 corresponds with the big drop in oil prices on Slide 44. Interest rates were so high that buyers could no longer afford new homes or factories. Prices seem to have been brought down by falling demand.
Slide 45
If we look at recent oil prices, we can also see that they also depend very much on interest rates. In my paper, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis, I show that the US debt bubble popped precisely when oil prices hit a peak in July 2008. That is when US consumer credit and mortgage debt started falling.
On Slide 45, QE stands for Quantitative Easing. This was a program that allowed lower long-term interest rates in addition to lower short-term interest rates. Thus, it gave the Federal Reserve (and other central banks) the power to reduce interest rates to an even greater extent than was possible by reducing short-term interest rates alone.
Slide 46
The Federal Reserve seems to have been instrumental in causing the Great Recession, as well. Slide 46 shows a larger scale of the same information about oil prices and short-term interest rates shown on Slide 43. There can be several years between the time interest rates are raised and the resulting recession occurs, so most people miss the role that intentionally raising short-term interest rates plays.
Also, high oil prices also tend to have an adverse impact on the economy because energy prices rise, but wages do not rise at the same time (Part 1, Slide 28). Consumers are forced to cut back on discretionary goods when the cost of necessities (such as the cost of commuting and the cost of food) rise.
In fact, it seems to be the combination of rising energy prices and increased interest rates that leads to recessions.
Slide 47
On this chart, I show some of the comments heard about oil prices. In mid-2008, it was clear that high oil prices were becoming a problem, especially for those with subprime mortgages who were living in homes that were distant from their work. By early 2014, we started hearing that oil prices had been too low for oil producers in 2013. Because of the unprofitability of oil production, some oil producers were cutting back on investment in new production. See my post, Beginning of the End? Oil Companies Cut Back on Spending.
Now, it is fairly clear that no oil price will work for both producers and consumers. Today’s Brent oil price of about $80 per barrel is both too low for producers and too high for some consumers. Consumers who are particularly affected are those whose currencies are falling relative to the dollar, such as consumers in Turkey and Argentina. Even countries with more modest decreases, such as China and India, are cutting back on automobile purchases. This change will affect future oil demand.
If, by some chance, oil prices should spike to a high level such as $100 per barrel, the affordability problem pretty much guarantees that oil prices will fall back fairly quickly. This issue, by itself, makes it impossible to believe that oil prices will increase endlessly.
I should mention, too, that we are also at a point where no interest rate works for everyone. Those buying new homes and new cars need low interest rates, in order for these goods to be affordable. Pension plans, on the other hand, need high interest rates, in order to meet their pension promises. There is no one interest rate that works for every purpose.
Thus, we have a combination problem: no interest rate works for everyone, and no set of energy prices works for everyone.
Slide 48
The Federal Reserve is now in the process of raising short-term interest rates (see Slide 43). It is also selling the QE securities that it previously acquired to reduce long-term interest rates. If buying these QE securities lowered long-term interest rates, selling them should raise long-term interest rates. Raising both short- and long-term interest rates sounds like a formula for creating a huge number of debt defaults and lowering prices of shares of stock. It is likely that these actions will also start a major recession.
Slide 49
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Slide 50
On Slide 50, “earlier” refers to Slide 16 in Part 1 of this presentation. From Part 1, we remember that the first small peak refers to the California gold rush; the second larger peak about 1910 refers to “Electrification and Early Farm Mechanization.” The third peak about 1970 refers to the “Postwar Boom.” The last small peak refers to the expansion made possible by China’s growth, and the growth of other Asian countries.
Slide 50 shows that the troughs refer to periods that were bubble collapses, or the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union. Slide 51 (next) gives details with respect to these low periods. These were bad times for economies: depression, debt collapses, and periods with significant wage disparity. They were not periods with high energy prices.
Slide 51
Clearly, none of these low periods was a good period for the economy. While we can see that there was low energy consumption during the periods, the primary reason for this low energy consumption was the collapse of a debt bubble or of a government.
Slide 52
Peak coal occurred in the United Kingdom in 1913, and World War I began shortly thereafter, in 1914. When peak coal occurred, wages for workers were very low, because diminishing returns had made the operation of coal mines increasingly expensive, but those purchasing coal could not afford higher coal prices. Thus, mining companies could not afford to pay workers adequate wages. World War I gave an alternative employment opportunity for coal miners and others with low wages.
Entering World War I was a very successful strategy for the UK. The fact that the UK was on the winning side allowed the UK to retain its role as the holder of the reserve currency. In this position, it was fairly easy for the UK to borrow the funds needed to obtain coal and other energy imports.
Germany seems to have encountered peak coal about the time World War II began. Was this an attempt to cover up Peak Coal? We don’t know for certain, but the timing certainly looks suspicious.
In both of these cases, low energy supply seems to have led to fighting, rather than high prices.
Slide 53
The collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union seems to have been an indirect impact of the long term low oil prices in the 1981-1991 period. The high oil prices of the 1970s had encouraged the Soviet Union to ramp up oil production. Once the US raised interest rates and oil prices fell, there were no longer funds for investing in new oil production. The Soviet Union was dependent on oil exports. It was able to continue for quite a few years with low prices, but eventually its central government collapsed. Over the long term, consumption has continued to be much lower, reflecting the permanent loss of industry.
Slide 55
Slide 55 is a graph of the “peaks” on Slide 50. If we listen to mainstream economists (including Paul Romer and William Nordhaus, who recently received the Nobel Prize in economics), improved technology can allow the world economy to become increasingly efficient, and thus overcome the problem of diminishing returns. Slide 55 shows that over a period of nearly 200 years, this has never happened in the past. The troughs represent collapses of one kind or another. These low periods did not represent sustainable situations.
The problem is that diminishing returns leads to the need for very different techniques to work around new problems. For example, if there are diminishing returns with respect to extracting fresh water from wells, the first alternative is to dig deeper wells. Efficiency gains can somewhat help offset the cost of deeper wells. But once the problem advances to the point where desalination is needed, plus remineralizing the water with the correct minerals after desalination, the cost of fresh water becomes much higher. It becomes impossible for improved technology to work around the very large increase in costs that diminishing returns seems to cause.
We haven’t been able to work around diminishing returns with increased efficiency before; we are likely kidding ourselves if we think we can do so now.
Slide 56
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Slide 57
–
Slide 58
The point that should be emphasized is that the reason why the United States economy now looks fairly good is because we are at the top of a debt bubble. This bubble is partly the result of world’s long running low interest rates, and partly because of the United States’ recent tax cuts. Thus, the situation today is a lot like 1929 before the debt bubble collapsed, or a lot like 2007 before the economy derailed. Things look good, but they won’t necessarily stay favorable for very long.
Slide 59
Separate Additional Conclusions for Various Audiences
At this writing, I have actually given variations on this talk three different times, to different audiences. The first audience (which is the one I mentioned at the beginning of Part 1) was a meeting of about 100 property-casualty actuaries. These actuaries help determine rates and financial statement amounts for lines of insurance such as automobile, homeowners, and medical malpractice. The specialized conclusions I added for that audience were the following:
Slide 61
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Slide 62
The second version of my talk was given at the 2018 Bermuda International Life and Annuity Conference, to a group of 300+ insurance executives of various kinds. This talk was called Energy Economics: Is a Discontinuity Ahead? This audience was especially interested in my talk because interest rates are central to the operation of pension plans. If interest rates do not rise, this is a major concern for this group.
The conclusion slides to that presentation were the following:
Conclusions -Slide 1 of 2 – Life/Pension version
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Conclusions for Life and Annuity Providers – Slide 2 of 2
The third version of the presentation I gave was to a group of followers of Peak Oil theory. This presentation was somewhat shorter and slightly rearranged. The title of this presentation was How the Energy System Really Works and What Seems to Be Going Wrong.
Its short conclusions’ sheet mentions the following dangers:
Conclusions of Shorter Version
Adaptation to decline posed as evolution of design:
https://www.planetizen.com/news/2018/10/101085-new-dream-home-includes-granny-flat
There are a lot of big existing homes available, which in theory could be adapted to house multiple generations. Often the difficulty is too many stairs. Neither granny (in her 80s) or the daughter (in her 60s) is very good on the stairs any more.
How government policies and taxpayer money have helped Elon Musk and Tesla
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/21/how-government-policies-and-taxpayer-money-have-helped-musk-and-tesla.html
I think governement policies and money have helped a lot more special interests than just Elon Musk. So much waste, graft, fraud and abuse. If all that waste was redirected to extending BAU we might get another year or two out of the goose that laid the golden egg.
OIL (BRENT) PRICE COMMODITY
79.61 USD +4.90 (6.56%)
Still under 80, but the game hasn’t started yet.
We will see when the Iran sanctions start, and other madness from the Don the Con.
Of course, there is a physical reality——-
But BP came out recently stating that $80.00 oil is too high. According to BP:
“Oil prices at $80 a barrel are too high and unhealthy for the world today, Bob Dudley, the chief executive of UK supermajor BP, said on the sidelines of an event on Friday.
“There’s a healthy price for oil and energy and I believe that balances producing countries and consuming countries,” Quartz quoted Dudley as saying on the sidelines of the conference One Young World in The Hague.
“In my mind, it’s somewhere between $50 and $65 a barrel. The world can live with this,” Dudley noted.
From:https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-ceo-80-oil-unhealthy-045900794.html
Us shale has a glaring problème
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-A-Glaring-Problem.amp.html?utm_source=tw&utm_medium=tw_repost&__twitter_impression=true
Now this line from the article is funny:
“Until the industry as a whole improves, producing both sustained profits and consistently positive cash flows, careful investors would be wise to view fracking companies as speculative investments,”
First, the Goldilocks zone for oil prices is gone.
Second, sustained profits is an impossible goal.
Third, all investments in industrial endeavors today are speculative due to diminishing returns.
10 years must not be enough time to produce a profit?
“The Blob” has returned—–
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2018/10/persistent-alaska-warmth-in-fall-2018.html
https://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2018/10/freezing-season-has-started-or-has-it.html
Idaho, Try this article as a follow up for a knock on effect.
I post this for the purpose of displaying your epic stuuuupidity….
Record-breaking big freeze grips much of North America
Severe cold hits vast area from south Texas to Canada, and Montana to Maine
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/01/record-breaking-big-freeze-grips-north-america
Ragged, growing caravan of migrants resumes march toward US
A growing caravan of Honduran migrants streamed through southern Mexico on Sunday heading toward the United States, after making an end-run around Mexican agents who briefly blocked them at the Guatemalan border.
They received help at every turn from sympathetic Mexicans who offered food, water and clothing. Hundreds of locals driving pickups, vans and cargo trucks stopped to let them clamber aboard.
Besi Jaqueline Lopez of the Honduran city of San Pedro Sula carried a stuffed polar bear in a winter cap that seemed out of place in the tropical heat. It’s the favorite — and only — toy of her two daughters, 4-year-old Victoria and 3-year-old Elisabeth, who trudged beside her gleaming with sweat.
https://www.apnews.com/b709e05ec83c49e6876ff612141ae942
where is the wall trump ?
Wall is not very practical. Cuts off US farmers from the Rio Grande River. Probably disturbs water flows. Takes lots of workers and resources. Requires increased debt level (or increased taxes).
I highly recommend a network of large calibre machine guns along the border…. along with land mines… just to be fair I’d install loudspeakers broadcasting the following (in Spanish)…
F789 off back your hell holes and die. We have enough of our own troubles here and we are the last man standing. If you ignore this you will be blown to little pieces. You have been warned.
At some point … the American people will be…. ok with this concept.
Works for me. The Israelis use automatic kill zones.
I think most humans would agree that 7.8B are too many ….
plus look like trump is very angry
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1054356145798856704
I read a few months ago that Soros was funding trips to Central America encouraging these people to come to the US. Now some sources say these same groups are now handing out money to these people who are nearing the US border in Mexico right now. Not sure if this is true or not. Soros does hate Trump. If it cost him a few million to embarrass Trump I think he’d do it.
Here is one article on the issue. It seems incredible:
https://www.onenewsnow.com/culture/2018/05/01/reports-soros-funding-border-caravan-invasion
and you forget another one
the koch brothers
http://time.com/5343074/libre-koch-congress-immigration/
“Not sure if this is true or not. ”
Not a problem. Truth is left wing conspiracy, and not to be trusted.
Soros is the Devil, for sure.
CNN’s Camerota shuts down Trump supporter’s conspiracy about migrants: ‘Soros is not paying for the caravan!’
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/10/cnns-camerota-shuts-trump-supporters-conspiracy-migrants-soros-not-paying-caravan/
I love George but were are my $oros bucks? I am at nearly every anti fa protest..And I am forever shilling for open borders..But despite what Alex Jones says, I haven’t seen a penny..Pay up George!
“where is the wall trump ?”
Yeah, I’m surprised the Republicans didn’t make that happen. It’s a Republican majority in the House, Senate and they’ve got Trump in the Executive Branch, so why haven’t they opted for the wall?
Apparently Trump is not a dictator…. he cannot command a trade war… or a wall… he can’t even get a pot hole filled.
Yet magically we have a trade war with China…. at least I think we do …..
Does anyone recall a vote on this trade war? I certainly do not.
When I google Congress Votes for Trade War with China…. nothing….
So pray tell made the decision to initiative this trade war?
Who would have the power to do that?????
THINK ABOUT IT!!!
https://youtu.be/6DyG60KT-MY
RIP Big Man…. you are missed…..
Maybe falling oil production and coal production that is down from 2013 levels. Lots of expensive imported fuels.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/china-energy-production-by-fuel-plus-consumption-to-2017.png
Over at the Hopium farm, someone commented what caused the Great Depression. Gail has thought outside of the box by saying it was the result to low energy consumption around the world leading up to the GD. Here’s the comment: “Great Depression Cause
Depressions are caused by collapses in confidence due to losses of wealth.
Stock market crashes cause recessions, while bond market crashes cause depressions, because of the relative amounts of money/wealth that get destroyed in each event.
Both events destroy wealth, which causes a collapse in confidence, but a bond maket crash destroys a lot more wealth than a stock market crash because the bond market is about 3 times as large, so the impact on confidence is more extreme.
Deflation is caused by a collapse in confidence. If a bunch of your wealth gets destroyed by a crash, that will really impact your confidence – you won’t borrow money, you won’t take risk, you will hunker down and wait for the storm to pass, however long that takes. If this effect is widespread – that creates a depression. Money supply shrinks, which tosses people out of work, confidence collapses further, rinse, repeat.
Maybe think of it this way. If your high-beta stocks go to zero, that’s not great – that happened in 2001. Your gambling winnings were wiped out. That led to a recession. If your A-rated bonds get defaulted on, that’s much worse. That happened in 2008, and 1931. Your retirement plan got chopped in half. And if your bank dies and takes your deposits with you – that’s even worse. Your ability to pay your mortgage and/or your monthly grocery bill is now gone. You are now on the street. That happened in 1933.”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/comment/218868#comment-218868
Interesting thoughts. I think, though, that the situation is more complex that this.
Debt or its equivalent is available in quite a few forms:
1. Loans through Banks
2. Loans made possible by Debt sold as bonds
3. Loans made through informal mechanisms, often not recorded in official statistics
4. Promises made by governments, such a Social Security and Medicare, which people expect to be there in the future, but are funded on a pay as you go basis
5. Share prices of stock of publicly traded companies
6. Values of homes, agricultural land, and privately owned businesses
7. ETFs and other values made possible through the sale of derivatives
8. Commodity futures contracts
Shares of stock are indeed a small percentage of the total. Debt in its many forms is much larger than the value of shares of stock. Also, the debt market is much more directly affected by interest rates than the price of stock. If interest rates go up, the resale value of debt goes down. The value of assets bought with debt (homes and agricultural land especially) tends to fall at the same time. When the value of assets bought with debt falls, it is a deal-killer. Customers cannot repay debt with interest; banks tend to fail; prior debt cannot be rolled over.
The debt results are thus much more “important” in some sense, that the shares of stock. It is interest rates that are the important lever in making the system work. Debt defaults are a sign that this lever isn’t working.
Besides banks, insurance companies and pension plans are important holders of debt. All of these have problems, if debt repayment with interest becomes impossible.
U.S. Shale Has A Glaring Problem
A new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) and the Sightline Institute detail the “alarming volumes of red ink” within the shale industry.
“Even after two and a half years of rising oil prices and growing expectations for improved financial results, a review of 33 publicly traded oil and gas fracking companies shows the companies posting negative free cash flows through June,” the report’s authors write. The 33 small and medium-sized drillers posted a combined $3.9 billion in negative cash flow in the first half of 2018.
The glaring problem with the poor financial results is that 2018 was supposed to be the year that the shale industry finally turned a corner.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Shale-Has-A-Glaring-Problem.html
“The outlook for global growth in 2019 has dimmed for the first time, according to Reuters polls of economists who said the U.S.-China trade war and tightening financial conditions would trigger the next downturn… A majority out of nearly 150 economists said the top two triggers for the next global downturn were a further escalation of U.S.-Sino trade tensions, and tightening in financial conditions driven by a deep sell-off in global equities or a rapid rise in government bond yields.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-economy-poll/global-growth-outlook-for-2019-dims-for-first-time-reuters-polls-idUSKCN1MW00F
“The good times are back on Wall Street. Last year, the average Wall Street salary rose 13% to its highest level since 2008, just before the financial crisis shattered the financial world. According to a report from New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, annual pay excluding bonuses hit $422,500 on average last year.”
https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/10/wall-street-salary-hit-highest-level-since-2008/
“If it wasn’t before, it is definitely a slump now. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said today that the sales of existing homes across the US in September 2018 fell more than 3% seasonally-adjusted from August. At just 5.15 million (SAAR), that’s the lowest volume in almost three years.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212919-slump-now
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/10/20/saupload_ABOOK-Oct-2018-NAR-Resales_thumb1.png
Illustrates what happens when interest rates rise.
“Work will be moved out of the UK and jobs will be lost, unless the government finalises a Brexit withdrawal agreement by December, the director general of the CBI has warned. Carolyn Fairbairn said business reality would soon start to outpace Brexit negotiations, and decisions will have to be taken to counteract uncertainty.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/no-deal-brexit-job-losses-cbi-director-general-carolyn-fairbairn-a8594436.html
“FTSE companies that have issued a profit warning in the third quarter of 2018 have suffered an average 21 per cent fall in the value of their shares, marking the sharpest drop in nearly 10 years… A flurry of embattled retailers have sounded the alarm bell in recent months, with high street giants such as Debenhams spooking many City investors in the wake of warnings issued since the start of 2018.”
http://www.cityam.com/266327/profit-warnings-trigger-sharpest-drop-share-prices-since
When there is no doubt about the cause…. (consumer is broke)… blame the weather
“Retailers have contended with a year of weather extremes and the summer sun has benefited some, but burnt others. Looking ahead we anticipate one of the most demanding ‘golden’ quarters leading up to Christmas trading in many years,” according to Alan Hudson, EY’s head of restructuring for UK & Ireland.
Thomas Cook’s shares fell around 25 per cent in September after it issued a profit warning as customers opted to stay at home in the wake of a summer heatwave, putting off holidays abroad.
And the UK’s 20.5% yoy fall in new car sales for September’s was blamed on delivery backlogs due to the new emissions tests and waning appetite for diesels. There may be some truth to these narratives – and I do think pre-Brexit anxiety is a factor – but clearly we have a big problem with maxed out consumers, not helped by the weakening of the £ since the referendum:
“The average Briton will shoulder £14,300 of unsecured debt this year through credit cards, loans and overdrafts, far outstripping the personal debt mountain that preceded the 2008 economic crash.
“A report has found that the pattern of borrowing has radically changed since the recession. Ten years ago, borrowers used credit to fund the purchase of expensive items, such as cars and televisions. Today, unsecured debt is being used for life’s essentials: food, rent and everyday items…”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/personal-debt-soars-as-households-struggle-to-pay-for-daily-essentials-7s3nz73s8
Very important data – the financial state of the average person in the UK couldn’t be clearer, but may certainly become much worse.
The real estate bubble and simply insane rents and commuting costs leave so little for the frivolous consumption which our system requires.
The air is coming out of that bubble now, Xabier. Let us gather around the fire and sing sad songs… perhaps wash a haunch or two of jamon iberico down with some fine Islay whiskeys.
“Property transactions in prime central London locations have dropped below levels seen during the financial crisis to hit a new record low, new research shows.
“Brexit uncertainty and stamp duty increases are to blame, as declines have also been recorded more broadly across England and Wales, according to a new report by real estate investment advising firm London Central Portfolio.
“It comes as the Treasury is facing a £1billion drop in stamp duty from property sales this year – sparking fears a tax crackdown on homeowners has backfired spectacularly.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6303075/Home-sales-prime-central-London-drop-financial-crisis-levels.html
“. Today, unsecured debt is being used for life’s essentials: food, rent and everyday items…”
This doesn’t sound good at all!
I think governments have been doing the same thing–using rising debt to cover everyday expenses.
“Wall Street is preparing for the next global recession. Reliable Saudi oil supplies are threatened, China’s domestic economy is ripe for a reckoning and American tariff wars are cranking up. The last thing the global economic system needs right now is a petulant, provocative, debt-ridden and budget-busting Italy. The world has just gotten the last thing it needs.”
https://washingtonmonthly.com/2018/10/21/how-italy-is-threatening-the-world-economy/
“Fears that Italy’s banks face a black hole in their finances are expected to grow this week following a debt downgrade that could send the value of bank reserves plummeting. Despite efforts to shore up Italian banks’ reserves, a downgrade by the ratings agency Moody’s on Friday following a row between Rome and Brussels over the government’s budget could send them into freefall again.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/21/fears-about-italian-banks-expected-to-grow-following-downgrade
“Sydney’s housing market is facing the toughest conditions since the global financial crisis after auction rates slumped again at the weekend, with analysts predicting that the slowdown could get much worse in the months ahead. Australia’s biggest city saw only 44% of 567 listed properties sold at the weekend, according to Domain, the lowest preliminary clearance rate for a decade.”
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/oct/22/sydney-property-slowdown-bites-as-auction-rates-slump
When falling property prices hit, suddenly defaulting loans become a problem. The US was through this in 2008-2009. Now Australia gets a chance to experience the problem too.
“It’s an oddity of Japan’s corporate bond market: many debt sales that bankers said were successful actually weren’t. The secret may be getting harder to keep. Underwriters failed to fully sell at least 29 percent of company note offerings in September, twice the average over the past six months, according to information compiled by Bloomberg…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-21/a-big-secret-in-japan-s-credit-market-is-getting-harder-to-keep
Unsuccessful bond sales represent inadequate demand for debt. At some point, debt sales run out of buyers.
Chinese Stocks Rally Most Since 2015 as State Steps Up Support
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-22/chinese-stocks-extend-friday-s-gains-as-officials-voice-support?srnd=premium-asia
https://youtu.be/MzlK0OGpIRs
“A team led by Chinese President Xi Jinping’s top economic aide and tasked with maintaining financial stability amid an escalating trade war with the United States and a weakening economy met for the 10th time in two months on Saturday… ““The anxiety among the top leadership is 100 per cent,” Xu Jianwei, senior China economist at French bank Natixis, said.
““One of Beijing’s top priorities for this year was deleveraging, but that policy has shifted gradually because there are more serious problems,” he said.
““If deleveraging continues, many Chinese companies may die in the process. But if deleveraging slows down, the financial risks will continue to pile up. So regulators are for sure very worried, and I don’t think they have found a particularly good way out of it.””
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2169555/chinas-financial-crisis-team-goes-overdrive-10th-meeting-two
“China’s tax cuts next year could exceed the equivalent of 1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), a central bank adviser said in remarks published on Monday, in a sign policymakers might be considering another round of tax reductions.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-tax/chinas-tax-cuts-next-year-expected-to-reach-1-percent-of-gdp-pboc-adviser-idUSKCN1MW0FF
Tax cuts are a back-door way of getting higher debt for the government and more “demand” back to the rest of the economy.
If the economy won’t really grow as fast as desired, the government needs to pull out all steps to fix the problem. Deleveraging, of course, works the wrong direction. More coal might work slightly in the right direction. China reports the following increases in YTD production through September 2018, compared to YTD production 2017.
Coal +5.1%
Crude oil -1.9%
Natural gas +6.2% (from low base)
Gasoline output +6.2% (refinery output; inputs will include imported crude oil)
Diesel oil -0.4% (refinery output; inputs will include imported crude oil)
Electricity +7.4% (I think that the are using more electricity for heating home; before China used a lot of combined heat and power, which uses waste heat from power plants and thus is very efficient)
Source of statistical data: http://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01
I read that the price of Chinese goods have remained the same for 15 years while wages have risen 6 fold.
The chinese state corporation’s have managed to deal with this by taking on more and more debt.
http://www.oddlysaid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/consensus.jpg
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c
limate-scientists-versus-c
limate-data/
Actually that woman is a climate scientist who believes in A_GW. She is only skeptical of the degree because she has different (more benign) estimates and wants them to be used over the other estimates. There is no scientific reason why both estimates cannot be valid.
KKKLIMATE DATA FAKED
by John Bates (leading kkklimate scientist)
In the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. I also provide my suggestions for how we might keep such a flagrant manipulation of scientific integrity guidelines and scientific publication standards from happening in the future. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
Do we have CONSENSUS?
If you are not with Fast Eddy now…. you are a Stuuuupid MORE on… and you are eligible for a free bus pass on the grounds that you are totally incompetent, stewpid, moreonic… hopeless, useless, and pathetic….
Ah wtf … the bus pass is useless… you can’t even tell time so you would never make the bus…. the council hereby makes an exemption for you due to your extreme level of uselessness…. and will provide:
http://majesticlimos.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/customer-service-industry-limo-driver.jpg
How repulsive it is with those pathetic “scientific” therapy groups.
I love how the line in the sand is constantly being moved. First they made a HUGE deal about 350ppm CO2 in the atmosphere and how we haven’t seen those numbers for tens of thousands of years. Well, we crossed that and we’re still here.
Then they warned us about 375ppm and we crossed that and we’re still here. Then they warned us about 400ppm and we haven’t seen those numbers since there was little to no life on the planet. Well according to recent estimates, we’ve exceeded 400ppm and are on our way to 425ppm.
No one knows including the so-called experts. But when the so-called experts are making sh*t up then expect to be called out on it and that’s why the GW/CC/ACD crowd has lost a HUGE amount of credibility.
Then of course you have The Godfather of GW, none other than Al Gore who made millions off of his movie “An Inconvenient Truth”. So what does he do? He takes that money from the movie and his speaking trues and decides the GW/CC/ACD rules don’t apply to him. So he pays in the neighborhood of $10,000 Per MONTH, to power his GW/CC/ACD McMansion.
F789ing hypocrites !
‘F789ing hypocrites !’
You are not a hypocrite … when you know that G W is a ho ax… and you have agreed to be the front man….
And let us not forget Leo’s sea level multi million dollar concrete eco resort
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/leonardo-dicaprio-eco-resort-belize-2016-11?r=US&IR=T
https://static.businessinsider.com/image/582a02ba46e27a34478b61d0-1200/image.jpg
This is NOT The Onion. This sh it is REAL
fast eddy
you remind me of Gunnery Sergeant Hartman:in full metal jacket
https://youtu.be/-ZYlXEUo-Lo
Wikipedia says that as of 2017, Judith Curry has retired from academia. She was at Georgia Tech, which is not far from where I live. Based on her college graduation date of 1974, she seems to have retired from academia at approximately age 61. She has a blog, where she and a number of others make posts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Curry She seems to publish more, for those who subscribe at either a $2 per month level or a $20 per month level.
An OFW reader several years ago suggested that I try to go out to lunch with her sometime–in fact, offered to buy us both lunch, if I would carry out the plan. I didn’t, but it is an idea.
http://www.oddlysaid.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/consensus.jpg
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
America’s shale industry faces constraints
The limits of being an oil superpower
The history of America’s shale industry is brief and dramatic. In just a decade the country has seen the spread of innovative techniques to extract oil and gas locked inside shale rock; the lifting of a decades-long ban on crude exports; a price crash that seemed to decimate the industry—and now a price recovery. Next year the shale boom will account for the biggest surge in one country’s oil output since the International Energy Agency began keeping track. America is now the world’s top oil producer, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia.
America’s strides are all the more striking because they coincide with wobbles elsewhere. Output from many giant petro-states looks shaky at best. Exports from Iran are plummeting and due to sink further when American sanctions take effect next month. Venezuela’s production is in freefall. Supplies are vulnerable in Libya and Iraq. Even before the fallout over the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a journalist last seen entering the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul raised questions about the kingdom (see article), many analysts doubted its ability to boost production quickly. Saudi oil exports are already near their peak of the past five years.
The upshot is that the world increasingly relies on American shale. In June America produced 13% of global crude oil, nearly twice the proportion of June 2008; that share will probably rise. This shift is extraordinary, to be sure, but the power it hands to America can also be exaggerated. “The United States is the dominant energy player,” Larry Kudlow, Mr Trump’s economic adviser, boasted this week, able “to cover any shortfalls”. In fact, shale is also bumping against its limits.
In the short term, these limits include bottlenecks in the pipeline infrastructure needed to get oil to market. Companies in the Permian Basin, which spans west Texas and south-eastern New Mexico, are producing more oil than they can pipe out (see article). New pipelines due late next year should help.
Other problems are harder to resolve. Extracting oil from shale has become more efficient since 2014: the median break-even price for producing a barrel is $46. But costs are rising. Executives complain about a long-term labour shortage. Productivity gains in some regions are slowing as wells are drilled closer together. To blast more oil out of rock, companies are now using eye-popping amounts of water and sand. For a single well, hydraulic fracturing (fracking) can involve a total of nearly 65m litres of water, the volume of 25 Olympic swimming pools. That creates logistical and environmental demands. Pumping water back into shale formations is cheaper than carting it away, but that can cause small earthquakes. Colorado is considering new limits on fracking. Other states may decide to follow suit.
International oil companies have the size and logistical expertise to cope with some of these problems. Even as many of them cut spending on complex, long-term projects, they are putting more money into shale. Costs are more predictable and the timeline far shorter than for a giant project offshore. Chevron, bp and ExxonMobil all own large swathes of America’s most productive basins. Their entry makes further consolidation likely, as shale specialists seek the benefits of scale. Those specialists that remain are beholden to investors, not to politicians bent on pursuing energy dominance. And their investors increasingly demand that shale firms earn a profit, rather than merely grow. As the industry matures and costs rise, in other words, recent leaps in output will probably become more modest. For the first time American shale companies will this year earn more from operations than they spend on new projects and dividends, reckons Morgan Stanley, a bank.
About a decade after American shale firms began to surge, their most fervent backers can rightly claim that innovation has given the world a vast new source of oil and gas. Shale producers can indeed ramp up output relatively quickly. But America is hardly energy-independent. Last year the country imported more than 10m barrels of petroleum each day, equal to about half of its consumption. And the ability of the shale industry to dampen oil-price shocks is easily overstated.
The Dallas Federal Reserve recently warned of a “growing likelihood” that the shale industry will be unable to keep up with rising demand, leaving the world vulnerable to geopolitical events that cause prices to spike. Being a shale superpower is useful, but it does not mean that America can control the market.
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2018/10/18/americas-shale-industry-faces-constraints
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Are-Claims-Of-Peak-Oil-Production-In-Russia-Overblown.html
Interesting article on Russian oil. I’ll let those interested in reading it glean what they will from it.
I think price plays an important role. If oil price were $150 or $200 per barrel, Russia would find more oil to develop.
Are you celebrating the end of ___ ____ing yet?
Is there a crack forming…. or perhaps …. even….
http://www.lifespringchurch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Break-Free-of-Fear-Workshop-Image.jpg
Are the GGGGG WWWWW groopies…. having doubts?????
Or are they just beyond salvation … wallowing … no … drowing… in stewwwidity?
Someone read this piece? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205144-tesla-endgame
Who will be the future owner of TSLA? Blackrock? GM? Mercedes? SAIC?
Same people who own DeLorean….
As Chanos states – Tesla is worth … nothing. Zero. Zilch.
Keep in mind Tesla is a big part of the Triumvirate of Lies…. it is being kept alive… (note how Musk got a slap on the wrist for his – we having funding to go private – lie…. if any other CEO did that he’d be f789ed)….
When Tesla completely falls apart — watch for the narrative to change…. Elon will be compared to Jesus…. even though he failed he set the stage for EVs to be adopted by all the major auto companies…. he is the saviour
Gosh, you aren’t hinting at a Second Coming of Elon? 🙂
I am at that
Well, Enron Musk certainly put EV’s on top of the real car manufacturers agenda.
When Tesla implodes… having EVs in the line up will no longer juice share prices….
And we’ll get Who Killed the Electric Vehicle 2
Well, the pure EV and combined cycle / PHEV will with certainity be the only vehicles for sale within a 5 year period.
No. There is nowhere enough lithium and other rare earth materials available to switch over even a fraction of the total vehicle count to EV…
And I doubt there will be anything to switch over within 5 years….
Well, those who live will see.
https://images.angelpub.com/2016/26/38595/lithium-demand.png
If we have enough water in the right places, maybe. Otherwise, not so likely.
A very long article, cataloging a huge number of Tesla’s problems. At times, a person thinks, “They must be doing something right,” other than following the subsidies and the hype. But that seems to be sufficient.
A few excerpts:
“A rarely discussed issue is that to finance his mogul lifestyle and hobby ventures, Tesla’s CEO has already pledged nearly 40% of his directly owned 33,737,921 shares to banks for credit, as shown on page 48 (1) of the most recent SEC filing.”
https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/9/7/4630121-15363238064948196_origin.png
The growing and ageing number of Teslas in use should eventually result in more out-of-warranty repairs. More income could be generated, because the cost of repair is extremely high in comparison to that of cars from its industry peers. Owners have no other choice than to use Tesla’s overwhelmed service centres or one of the very few licensed repair shops in their region. Additional income could emerge from rising Supercharger use as the fleet grows.
Apart from these two compensatory components, the services and other segment seems beyond salvation, with a constantly negative gross margin of around -40%. Trade vehicles sold at auction generate negligible income. More lease-returns, particularly from the two-year leases offered in 2016 to fabricate the short-lived Q3 profit, will see the company having to take old cars to auction, and in the light of quality problems, a still deficient Autopilot, and unknown prior owner battery maintenance history, it remains to be seen what used Model Ss and Xs will fetch.
The future trajectory of warranty costs incurred is already foreshadowed in warranty provisions that were adjusted sharply upwards in Q2. Tesla’s cavalier attitude towards engineering, prototype testing and production quality control will plague the company for years to come. A recent article in Warranty Week shows Tesla’s far higher accruals in comparison to its industry peers.
The reason for the recent production frenzy was of financial nature. After Moody’s downgraded Tesla’s 5.3% 7-year junk bonds from B3 to Caa1, Tesla had to demonstrate weekly Model 3 production of 5,000 units by the end of Q2 to avoid a further downgrade, putting the company in severe distress. To that end, Tesla adopted the historic East German/Soviet approach to production, where delivery of a previously set quantity at all cost was more important than product quality.
Tesla’s cavalier approach to industrial production will take its toll.
While global Model S and X sales are in decline or stagnant, Tesla’s hopes in the U.S. and in Canada must rest entirely on the Model 3, because both Model S and X sales have peaked and the two cars are highly unprofitable.
Tesla’s sales are confined to a few heavily government regulated sales regions: California, three Chinese conurbations, Norway, the U.K. and the Netherlands, the latter already cutting back its EV benefit scheme.
To put it bluntly – from the unveiling ceremony on 31st March 2016 onwards, the Model 3 has been an unmitigated disaster.
This company should not exist.
It only does because it serves to hold up the 3-legged chair of hopium….
Sigh. Here we go again. I can’t believe that I have to do this. Elon is a visionary.
1. He makes cool cars.
2. He dated Amber Heard.
3. He makes cool rockets.
4. He makes tunnel boring machines.
5. He is dating Grimes.
6. He makes batteries that are superior.
7. Did I mention ge dated Amber Heard?
8. He doesn’t hang out on blogs and talk nonsense about global warming.
9. He has way, way more money than FE or Gail.
10. Losers point fingers, winners kick butt.
Garbage list.
Real heroes are people like Jobs, Wozniak, Westinghouse, Tesla and Edison.
None of those had vision enough to date amber heard once .
They were busy crafting a more interesting future than spout dreams, hopes and ultimately delusions to the feeble minded cultists.
That’s a list of men who accelerated the destruction of the planet and lead us to the coming extinction
Consider revising and naming some hunter gatherers?
Consider revising and naming some hunter gatherers?
well there was one guy try to pushback bau of agricultural revolution
his name was Genghis khan
Nope, I am eternally grateful for those heroes of mankind.
Long live the Brits with their coal and the North Americans with oil.
https://images.fineartamerica.com/images-medium-large-5/oil-pump-jack-and-american-flag-waving-imagery-by-charly.jpg
https://cdn.images.express.co.uk/img/dynamic/1/590x/powrr-701618.jpg
There’s a surprise. A company that provides benefits to no one is turning out to be a lousy investment.
So I was watching a short piece on SkyNews.com and they talked about the promise of Nuclear Fusion by building a NFP that supposedly will go live in 7 years. Sounds promising and the HYPE is “cheap limitless clean energy” with no nuclear waste byproducts such as, is the case with Nuclear Power Plants. https://news.sky.com/story/future-energy-inside-the-nuclear-fusion-reactor-that-will-recreate-sun-on-earth-11526692
However I do have some questions so I’ll play devils advocate. How does this new form of energy translate to building roads, schools, bridges, buildings? Can you build automobiles and trucks with Nuclear Fusion? Can you pump Nuclear Fusion energy into your car? Can it easily replace diesel and petrol fuels? What would be the cost of switching from fossil fuels to Nuclear Fusion, so you can pull up to a Petrol Station and fill up your car with Nuclear Fusion? Will consumers who already tapped out shell out more money to replace their cars, SUV’s and light trucks so it can run on Nuclear Fusion? How will this energy translate to moving trucks, ships and transport freighters around the world?
Inquiring minds want to know? Because all of this promise of a new and bright tomorrow never factors in the cost when the world is one Black Swan from a global economic collapse.
I get the impression that a lot of these projects are nothing more than to use taxpayer dollars, euros, pounds etc to give people something to do and earn a living. Much like government worker programs.
Yes, the fundamentals have been covered a long time ago by the forces of market economy and cheap FF’s.
The fluff you write about is indeed merely propped up chimaera, smoke, mirrors and inevitable waste.
Think of these projects as a way of (1) providing jobs and (2) ramping up demand for fossil fuels to make these devices. You will understand them better.
I brought up the same points over at Peak oil barrel blog, got attacked as a troll. If you spend some time reading their non-petroleum threads they are all in on electric vehicles and electric everything else. They seem to think we can transition over time to renewables.
Even the “Hopium King”, Chris Martenson has pointed out that there aren’t enough raw materials on the planet to make the switch to all electric.
POB is intolerable with the cocksure EV futurism poster-squatters. I don’t hate renewables or E-vehicles and might buy one for my next car, but I don’t expect it to change BAU at all or mitigate any collapse scenario
Why would you buy an EV?
– more expensive
– limited range
– takes hours to recharge
– powered by coal
– toxic battery
– other?
Some people want to watch the world burn….
Some people would rather be burned alive while in their car due to a malfunction.
*Shrugs* It’s their body. Their rules.
You can count the number of car fires from the Chevy Volt and Nissan Leaf with two fingers
Can someone give me a single good reason why one would buy an EV.
https://youtu.be/HaeSFrvgoDk
Impress other “Peak Oil” group member
I suppose one cannot pull up to the organic fair trade coffee shop that sells the finest beans picked by indentured servants and flown in on a Lear Jet overnight from a plantation on the other side of the world … in an ICE vehicle….
And expect to be greeted warmly … by the Green Groopies….
So there is that … assuming that is your thing….
Perhaps they have a grudge against Chileans.
“Chile’s Atacama desert is one of the driest places on earth, but home to an abundance of high-grade lithium deposits, existing in brine pools in the desert… United States-based miners Albemarle and Chile’s SQM celebrated deals with the Chilean government earlier this year, allowing them to increase lithium output. But the firms accuse each other of drawing more brine than allowed, which could affect future production in the area.”
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/americas/water-fight-in-chiles-atacama-raises-questions-over-lithium-mining
I suspect that a lot of mineral resources (including coal production and lithium production) depend upon adequate water in the area, among other things. When the water is coming from drawing down aquifers, the limit may come from water depletion, long before the supposed mineral resources are depleted. But no one puts together mineral reserves or resources, taking into account water limits. Theoretically more water would be available, by pumping water uphill from the ocean. If fresh water were needed, the water could be desalinated and pumped uphill. But the higher prices are likely to make the resources totally unusable.
Can someone remind me of why anyone would buy an EV…. I heard they were environmentally friendly
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
It’s a tool, as any other, you choose the most appropriate one for the job.
Assuming from the impression you are giving out that you are not exactly short on cash, so for example there will be Benz diesel plugin available next year. So, imagine decent station wagon, diesel engine and ~100km or better (can’t recall the spec) electric mode autonomy.. And given the smaller battery (say bellow 25kWh) can be easily charged up from ~small solar, overnight cheaper grid power, backup natgas generator (emergency) or whatever system. Simply, the options are many..
Obviously, the bummer is that such nice toy would be likely expropriated by local commissar in a heartbeat when things get tougher..
My bad, correction, I looked it up again, the batt is only ~14kWh, so that’s good for ~50km range. Nevertheless, such system has its logic, the tiny emotor is placed inside the automatic tranny assembly (Toyota had this for years already), so the increase of costs at assembly is relatively minimized, and the battery itself is not so pricey/bulky/heavy..
In any case there will be other models/brands with engine and sub ~30kWh batt anyway.
I like being able to pull up to a petrol station … just about anywhere … and fill up in minutes
EVs are white elephants in the making … the battery capacity degrades… just like the battery on your phone…
Only deluded fooooools buy EVs
Oh and EVs are charged for the most part with electricity generated from burning coal…
That is a good thing… I’d buy one except I don’t like to wait
Did I mention I called tesla in hong kong last week?
EV direct drive or plug in hybrid is a better vehicle in every measurable aspect.
I could drone on … but I will only mention this…
I can get 450 miles on a single tank of petrol in my high performance car…. I can easily find a petrol station and refuel it in a few minutes… and drive another 450 miles… etc…
My neighbour bought a BMW EV — he can drive a less than half of what I can — IF he does not run the heater/AC… and provided there are not too many hills along the way… then he needs to pay for a hotel room … and wait for his car to recharge.
His car is seriously fugly… and expensive …
http://www.carspoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/bmw-i3-orange-629×332.jpg
This plug-in hybrid gets 141 UK mpg (117.4 US mpg / 2 l/100 km) on combined cycle propulsion. The fuel tank is 45 liters/12 gallons, do the calculations yourself
https://wi-images.condecdn.net/image/e19LVmkkJJa/crop/810/f/2019-mitsubishi-outlander-phev.jpg
Once again … why would anyone bother with this claptrap …. batteries (that degrade) combine with engines, blah blah blah… when they are POWERED by fossil fuels?
And there is a perfectly good fossil fuel powered vehicles that are cheaper and better — available?
Oh I know …. they are stuuuupid f789ing more ons who think they are saving the world …
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
Well FE, I challenge you to test drive one combined cycle PHEV.
I have a perfectly good car … I will drive it to the west coast – 8 hours — I have never seen a charging station for an EV between Queenstown and the coast.
I’d have to be a ret ard to try that in an ev
Why the f789 would I want to drive an ev?
“Peak oil” groups tend to head in this direction, from what I have seen. They want a “happily ever after” answer of some type.
I suppose they also believe ___ ___ ing is real….
Peak coal’ is getting closer, latest figures show
Total global coal capacity continues to inch up, but a peak is on the horizon. In the first half of 2018, retired capacity has nearly matched newly operating plants and the global pipeline for proposed coal is quickly eroding.
This is according to CoalSwarm’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker results, which we completed in July 2018. Our figures confirm the sector is in the midst of rapid change. [Carbon Brief recently used the data from the tracker to produce a global coal plant map and timeline.]
Even if global coal capacity peaks soon, however, the sector is set to breach its share of internationally agreed climate goals — unless large numbers of coal plants retire early.
Dramatic changes
The most dramatic changes are taking place in China and India, which are both dealing with a growing number of coal plants operating well below optimal levels or are frozen in construction. In China, this is primarily due to power overcapacity. In India, it is due to financial issues and increasing competition from renewable power.
The table below shows that while some countries have a significant amount of planned or under-construction coal capacity, the amount under development does not nearly match the scale of development in China and India, particularly over the past decade. Many of the plans in these other countries are highly reliant on foreign aid, as discussed below.
https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-peak-coal-is-getting-closer-latest-figures-show?utm_content=buffer7e10c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
is this true ?
Peak coal may very well be past, as far as I can see.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/06/world-oil-coal-and-gas-consumption-through-2017.png
I have mentioned coal supply issue several times, probably more in the comments than in posts. It is the failure of coal consumption to rise that is causing our total per capita energy problems. Coal’s highest year of both production and consumption was 2013. Arguably, the situation could be a “bumpy plateau,” which is why “peak coal” has not really been called. People have had their attention so focused on oil, that they never stopped to think that coal would peak first.
The amount of coal in the ground has little to do with the amount that can be extracted profitably. For one thing, fresh water is needed for processing. If this is not available, the coal may be left in the ground. The cost of transportation of the coal to the destination where it is to be used can be another issue preventing extraction.
Well, don’t forget the additional costs: nowadays even emerging economies deal to some extent with installed anti pollution measures and site re-cultivation for the power plant/mine operation..
The very intense liberal prohibition against even mentioning the word coal is a major obstacle in my region. This liberal pressure has resulted in squandering time to even look into the feasibility of regionally scaled coal production. Another big problem hindering production and consumption is the conviction that coal must be produced exactly as it has been done traditionally. Nobody, for instance, would consider that coal production be other than a men’s game. Or that it could be a ladylike and delicate procedure..for soft people.
If the costs of those measures could be brought down, maybe the industry would be affordable. For instance, I read about a very highly carbon absorptive plant–it absorbs adjacent carbon and then is shortly discarded and replaced. Such a procedure, if truly feasible, could absorb coal plant exhaust along long ground corridors. It would become a separate industry to grow, apply and recycle the plants. More jobs, having direct or indirect linkage to coal. Such an industry would tend to spawn yet more industries.
Carbon capture and storage has been talked about for a long time. It requires a great deal more coal to produce the same end product. And it is not clear that the underground storage will be permanent. The cost tends to be prohibitive.
There are a few places where there is a nearby underground oil field that can use unwanted CO2 to increase pressurization. But that CO2 likely escapes.
In the US, coal prices have risen, but not nearly enough. The result looks like peak coal.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/us-coal-production-consumption-and-imports-to-2017.png
By plant, I meant the green variety. No technology involved, and coal production at a regional rather than global scale. I can understand how people who know more than I can be involved with global coal production. I can only get as far as the regional level.
It’s like people here discussing nuclear materials being stored in the state. They are gung ho about these far distant issues, while not remotely seeing the pressures (or slow decline) of the place where they live. I would say, let the higher ups deal with nukes.. If an accident occurs, they’ll feel the heat (no pun intended). They have the clout and motivation to enact safety measures. We can’t even keep big rigs off our country roads. But I’m the only one who seems to get that.
I didn’t save the name of the plant I read about that was hyper carbon-absorbent. But this article suggests that plants profusely lining along-the-ground “smokestacks” could be a very cheap, commonsense way t lessen the ill effects of burning coal.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/environment/globalwarming/11159926/Global-warming-plants-may-absorb-more-carbon-dioxide-than-previously-thought.html
https://search.aol.com/aol/search?s_it=webmail-hawaii1-basicaol&q=extreme%20carbon%20absorbing%20plant
What am I going to burn in the Rayburn??????
Btw – now that winter is over I turned the Rayburn off…. but the electricity is not kicking in to heat the hot water…. I am thinking … to get the electrician out from town along with the repair will cost me $200-$300….
I can keep the stove ticking along heating the water all summer for around $30 per week (I buy so much coal that I get a deal of $15 per 40kg sack… and if I turn off all the rads and heat only the hot water cylinder I use very little)….. throw in the savings on electricity… and I might be ahead of the game…
And the beauty of it all …. I get to burn coal year round. How cool is that???
In Britain, the exploitation of coal was limited first by sea communications, and then by canal development. It only really took off when steam trains made country-wide distribution possible – much cheaper. That is when the intelligent management of wood resources went into a decline from which they have never recovered.
Peak Oil is far more important than Peak Coal, because oil is more dense source of energy. Because of coal, 19th century technology was possible. Because of Oil, 20th century technology was possible.
Look at this: https://youtu.be/FdpfWHfQKf0?t=150 Pure energy coming straight out of the ground. Just a burning match to unleash it. Coal can’t compare.
It’s actually Natural Gas, because I couldn’t find good video of oil well burning 🙂 NG is more difficult to store than oil. That’s why it’s worse.
What we need is cheap energy. Coal helps bring down the average cost of energy. We can often work around the energy density issue, if electricity (from coal or natural gas) can be used instead. The deal-killer is not having enough energy in total per capita. Getting rid of coal, and adding intermittent renewables, doesn’t work for many reasons, including
(1) Not cheap enough
(2) Too much intermittency, including seasonal intermittency
(3) A major function of fossil fuels is to provide tax revenue. Intermittent renewables are takers of subsidies, not provider of heavy tax revenue.
If coal is cheap enough, and there is plenty of water, it is also possible to develop a liquid fuel from coal. This is another workaround for the energy density issue.
The Inevitable Oil Supply Crunch
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Inevitable-Oil-Supply-Crunch.html
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/52d222e9.gif
yes yes yes…
permanent decreasing oil production is guaranteed… probably starting in the 2020s…
but demand may crash BEFORE that happens…
once again, it’s a race…
decreasing supply is coming soon…
decreasing demand is coming soon…
which will run ahead of the other?
more likely, economic problems will cause the decreasing demand to be greater than the decreasing supply…
so there may NEVER be a supply crunch…
Right! If people are broke because their jobs disappear, their demand goes away.
If the prices don’t rise high enough, oil/natural gas/coal production facilities don’t get built. The quantity goes down. But an early thing that may happen is debt defaults, and if that happens, we are likely to have a major recession. It is the recession that brings down energy production/jobs/commodity prices all at the same time.
The other alternative is war, because of low energy prices and inadequate supply. War distracts attention and is an excuse for more debt. It also provides jobs for young people. But high prices are unlikely to happen, for any significant length of time.
But who will care for the elderly, when the young people go into war? That is the question…
Sink or swim.
A parody Antifa page convinced a bunch of CHUDs to show up in the pouring rain to a nonexistent protest
https://www.gastongazette.com/news/20181020/antifa-scare-sends-protestors-to-gastonia-camping-store
somebody was saying on ofw
why i do not tell bad news about india
well here it is as of March 2018, India has 22 nuclear reactors
in operation in 7 nuclear power plants, having a total installed capacity of 6,780 MW
and upcoming nuclear war between ind vs pak for water
less than in 50 years
https://youtu.be/2Nzm2CidMpM?t=1552
The video is about the difficulties of escaping from North Korea. Just the beginning is about India/Pakistan (unless I am doing something wrong.)
gail issue between about india between pakistan
start at 25 mintute
Sorry, I didn’t get that far. It is helpful if you tell where to look in a video.
Nearly 1.4 dead due to radiation poisoning. When BAU goes down
so tim groves said that international space station is fake
so this means russia is also fake it with nasa
https://youtu.be/jxERsQsYkpg
plus is this guy also fake
https://youtu.be/waxqSCEFkBo
Stop posting your boring jank.
No one cares.
just like you rant over india
Just stop being so garbage.
so tim groves said that international space station is fake
No he didn’t. You obviously have reading comprehension issues.
“Up until now the problem for the [UK] Prime Minister has been a perception among her Ministers and backbenchers that she is pursuing a politically unworkable Brexit plan. But this morning a new view is forming. That she has no plan at all.
“‘You know that moment when you’re out with your friends, and you’re having a half-decent time, and someone say’s “let’s try somewhere new”. So you all wander off and then after about 15 minutes one of you asks, “OK, where are we going?” and everyone just looks at everyone else, and you realise you’re all just standing there in the rain. That’s what it’s been like this week,’ says an official.”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-6299125/A-terrible-fear-growing-says-DAN-HODGES-Theresa-no-Brexit-plan-all.html
“There is now a clear split between Theresa May and her Brexit secretary Dominic Raab…
“I can’t see this dispute ending well for Raab or May.
“And a no-deal Brexit looks more and more likely.”
https://www.itv.com/news/2018-10-21/dominic-raab-undermines-theresa-may-on-brexit-transition/
A government in chaos and a nation hopelessly divided:
“The centre of London ground to a halt as an estimated 700,000 people from all over the UK marched peacefully on parliament to demand a second referendum on Brexit. It was the biggest outpouring of public opposition to government policy since the anti-Iraq war protest in 2003.”
https://amp.theguardian.com/politics/2018/oct/20/70000-demand-new-brexit-vote
And, although I’m sure the government has been briefed, there is only a limited awareness, even in some of the more hysterical newspaper articles, of just how logistically challenging hence systemically dangerous a no-deal scenario could be.
The fuel blockades of 2000 hint at the vulnerability of our JIT supply-chains:
http://www.iwar.org.uk/cip/resources/PSEPC/fuel-price-protests.htm
The very long list of essential services in the UK is worth noting: what was it 200 years ago?
That Bert got up at 5.30, walked down the lane, and milked the cows……
God, are we screwed!
The UK economy is in deep trouble… and the MSM has blamed the woes on Brexit… so this is a logical move …
However Brexit is not the cause of the woes… so the protests are futile
thanks for bringing that up Harry—well worth a re read
most folks have forgotten about it
Wow!
So, rate of profit in core countries is sliding roughly ~10% per ~4decades, we were sort of hovering max ~15% above the zero threshold since ~2009, hence in very crude non precise estimation, we should be approaching single digits in two-three decades since 2009 (starting mid 2020s).. Obviously, we don’t know how this all interacts in terms of reaching the terminal threshold, but likely it should disintegrate, shift into different arrangement WELL BEFORE hitting the zero..
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2018/10/14/the-worlds-fragile-economic-condition-part-2/comment-page-7/#comment-189905
Right! It is like the slowing bicycle. It falls over, well before the speed hits zero. The economy needs to at least repay debt with interest.
“The economy needs to at least repay debt with interest.”
…or in more laymens terms, a person needs to earn more than just rent money to pay off his/her monthly debt and expenses or they’ll find themselves on the street.
Right!
Sometimes a slowing bicycle can go on a lot longer than we expect it to. When it is about to topple, a smart cyclist can “wobble” it by moving the handle bars to the left and right alternately to make it zig-zag and possibly get a few more yards out of the thing. Perhaps we are approaching the limits of what our bike is capable of and QE was a “wobble” of sorts.
You ain’t seen nothing yet.
The CB’s with their supercomputing resources at disposal will make some spectacular stunts to keep BAU cranking along.
as baby boomers leave companies for nirvana generation
https://youtu.be/hTWKbfoikeg
is about see whether nirvana generation become as greedy as
baby boomers
Nirvana was a refreshing turn from the glam band dominance of the time.
But, the cultural decline has continued.
I’m 40 so I guess I’ll take generation Fight Club, personally. Gen X are in their 50s through 40s, so I would attribute most of the housing loan scams, web 1.0 and 2.0 bubbles to Gen X greedsters, but many are like myself, virtually anonymous in society and just trying to hang on and suffering from latent issues, thanks to our boomer parents’ own selfishness.
fast eddy you still haven’t give answer to my question
is international space station is fake ?
Wouldn’t it be much easier just building it than faking such a thing.
It would be cheaper to fake it. But why bother to fake it?
Because then NASA could spend the dosh on coke, candy and call girls.
https://youtu.be/19fBJnD1Cb8
so tim is earth is flat ?
plus are black holes are also fake ?
Only “sh1thole” countries like India exists for sure. Black holes are mostly a case of numerology and belief that division by zero is definable into something real, such as real progress for the people in India.
haha who cares about india
Whitee you should care more about genocide
of superior whites south Africans
I really can not fathom why the whites haven’t left SA a long time ago.
SA is just another failed state in the making. Yet another upcoming “shi7h0le” country, just like the rest of the failed states of Africa.
i thought insults were banned on the sabbath
CNN says they are real.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90-gHDibTZw
Don will share his with you
Third World person. if you want to be taken seriously, then you’ll act seriously and quit trolling. If you don’t mind not being taken seriously, then troll away.
Is the earth flat? Not in my universe according to my definitions of the words “earth” and “flat”. I judge the earth to be crinkly and roughly spherical. I’ve personally traveled all around it and got back to my starting point never found an edge. But I also concede that the earth may be banana-shaped like the moon is when it’s three days old.
Are black holes also fake? Very possibly. I’ve never seen one. Have you? If anyone puts his hand in his pocket, takes out a small box and tells you he has a black hole in there and asks if you’d like to buy it, you’d be wise to humor him and tell him you’ve already got one at home and that you find it very useful as waste disposal unit.
As to whether black holes exist out there in space—the final frontier—I would say the jury is still out on that hypothesis, and I don’t care which way it goes as I don’t have a dog in that particular fight. So I’m not going to add my baa-ing to the bleatings of the pro- or anti-black hole advocates.
The astronomer Fred Hoyle—I’m one of his fan boys!—once wrote of the herd mentality in his profession:
“The trouble with conformity is that the process has strong positive feedback. The baa-ing starts up at a volume low enough to permit stronger-minded animals to think for themselves without too much trouble. Progressively, however, we break down one-by-one, losing all power of sensible judgement, to the point where we can do nothing but add our own baa-ing to the uproar, which eventually rises to such monumental proportions that nothing remains for the flock except the butcher’s shop.”
The more relevant question is….. if the world is flat … what would be the motive for those who insist on proving it is round?
That can be applied to just about anything….. it takes a massive effort to make 1+1=3…. you need the MSM on board… you need some scientists to believe….
Therefore you need motive…. you don’t just apply the 1+1= 3 for no good reason.
My guess is that in science—proper science like Archimedes did in the bath or Galileo did at the top of the Leaning Tower of Pisa or Newton did sitting under the apple tree—except they probably didn’t, but I digress—the motive is to describe the world, the Universe or whatever accurately, correctly and consistently in terms of the terms (precisely defined words and concepts, mathematical or otherwise) available. In this endeavor, accuracy, correctness and consistency are their own rewards, regardless of any practical benefit they may bring. In this respect, doing science can be likened to doing a jigsaw puzzle or a crossword.
In politics and social media banter, by contrast, the motive is to make one’s opponent look silly by reference to their opinion on one subject and thereby implicitly invalidate their opinion on all other subjects. This game is not jigsaw puzzle or crossword solution, it’s a form of pure unadulterated “Gocha!” The method is to set up a stupidity litmus test that most people would agree is valid, and then invalidate the opponent based on their failure to pass said test.
Thus: The world is round—every sane educated sensible person accepts this. If so and so can be persuaded to say “The world is flat”, then they can be outed as either insane, uneducated, not sensible or a combination of all three, and so their opinions on anything else can be discarded based on this diagnosis.
There are lots of variations on the Gocha! game besides “Flat Earth Gocha!” For instance, we’ve seen on this thread an attempt to invalidate Dr. Richard Lindzen’s expert opinions on matters meteorological on the grounds he’s accepted money from Big Oil and criticized the statistics used to PROVE smoking CAUSES cancer. I’m surprised the same Gocha! artist didn’t also bring up Roy Spencer’s views on Intelligent Design to invalidate his views.
We’ve all been enjoying the recent US Supreme Court hearings where Judge Kavanaugh was Gocha!ed—not very successfully—for teenage dry humping, drinking excessively, and then getting angry about being accused of attempted rape.
And just as that circus fades from view, we have Elizabeth Warren Gocha!ed for not being a Cherokee after all. Indeed, according to one investigator, Warren’s great, great, great Grandpa rounded up Cherokee Indians and herded them to the point of origin of the infamous Trail of Tears. You can’t get much more Gocha!ed than that!
They took the whole Cherokee nation
Put us on this reservation
Took away our ways of life
The tomahawk and the bow and knife
Took away our native tongue
And taught their English to our young
And all the beads we made by hand
Are nowadays made in Japan
https://youtu.be/caCvDB9ivOE
I can see the space station when it passes over so I think it is not fake… but I am not 100% certain.
Did I mention I travelled to Egypt and Bahrain and Greece during their crises … to see what was actually happening in those places? It was very different from what one sees on ‘the news’
It could be that the space station is real and that it is manned, but that some or all of the TV broadcasts purporting to be from the space station are fake. Or it could be unmanned and the idea that it is manned is fake. Same goes for the moon landings. We the public are expected to take it on trust that all the space broadcasts and space travel narratives are genuine. Why should we do that?
Believing without question everything the government and its mass media tells us is a hallmark of gullibility, surely. On the other hand, society becomes impossible to run if nobody believes what anybody says about anything. So some kind of middle way is required. Which is where the Japanese concepts of honne (true feelings/thoughts) and tatemae (opinions displayed in public) come into play. The consensus on anything is tatemae—a facade. We agree to it in public and keep our own opinions to ourselves, thus maintaining social harmony and avoiding fisticuffs.
https://youtu.be/isMtxbPdvzg
https://youtu.be/E69kjQAoHCU
https://youtu.be/EQEyDTPIm6Q
Your honour… I rest my case…..
Do you think Nayirah and Christine had the same voice coach?
https://youtu.be/k5JjNKdjYKI
I wonder how much the PR contracts for this stuff are worth…. I would imagine Edleman has a massive retainer with the US gov…
The Beak Noses would of course employ other Beak Noses… to carry out these vital schemes….
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_Edelman
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edelman_(firm)
Same people who make it ok for Israel to drop phosphorous on the Palestinians?
They can make it sound like the the F16’s are dropping cotton candy on them
What would be the purpose of faking it?
I have outlined the purpose of faking G W…. in a recent post….
WMD was fake…. I assume you are able to understand why that was faked….
In 1997, Walter Kwok was kidnapped by gunmen working for Chinese gangster Fast Eddy, nicknamed “Big Spender”, and spent six days in captivity. He was taken to a small hut in Fanling in the New Territories – the same hut where Fast Eddy had held Victor Li, son of Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, the year before.
Walter Kwok initially refused to cooperate, leading Fast Eddy to beat him, and shove him into a small wooden box. He finally called his family to ask them to pay the HK$600 million ransom, which was about half of what Fast Eddy had initially demanded.
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/society/article/2169483/hong-kong-property-magnate-walter-kwok-dies-aged-68
Uncle Bill…. Fast Eddy has plans for you….
You are unworthy, Ed…
Lacerate your… abdomen…
Make… me… a sumptuous blood… offering.
Making threats now. The worldwide scorchy torchy will be upon you.
I actually saw Brown do this—-
99% of the audience was stoned on acid.
Ah, the good old days! I saw TYA, Groundhogs, saw Bowie twice (got Mick Ronson’s autograph), the Faces twice, Roxy Music in 1972, when they were still an electronic act and got all their autos – was annoyed that Andy Mackay wouldn’t tell me Eno’s real name (who had signed just as Eno then left) – nobody knew he was “Brian Eno” back then.
We are locked in here with FE.
https://youtu.be/B3lsJmwNO40
“You’re Literally Sprinkling Plastic On Your Food: A study published this week in ‘Environmental Science & Technology’ sampled salt brands from across the globe and found 92 percent contained microplastics.”
https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/wj9a95/youre-literally-sprinkling-plastic-on-your-food
Uncle Bill … as promised… Fast Eddy is BACK! The ride was spectacular… nice chill in the air (g lo bal cooling?) …. those last few hills caused my quads to catch fire… or maybe that was the carbon I was breathing in???? Anyway…. I am feeling energized and ready to haul M Fast off to one of the wineries for a chalice or two….
Enough about me … what have YOU been up to?
Have you been contemplating the FACT that all the clowns the MSM quotes were exposed FAKING their numbers… and DELETING their data sets?
What do you make of this?
There is no dancing around this … no beating around bushes… these are FACTS… and they completely DESTROY the narrative (myth) that burning carbon will wreck the planet….
Ford mocks Elon Musk in new commercial featuring Bryan Cranston
United States Drops 21 Spots in Global Life Expectancy Rankings
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/united-states-drops-21-places-global-life-expectancy-rankings-180970585/?fbclid=IwAR1T1BFyUtgjVmA7if4Lmi9Ywtax50UzLt_MRalz8mRDz8G4uyDmD34a3pM
Yep fat, short and dumb doesn’t make for longer life.
Bill… the World Champion needs to take a break…. it’s a chilly spring day … not so worm…. so The World Champion would like to take his leave and go for a bike ride
But don’t fret… The World Champion will Be BACK!
https://martinsj2.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/cavendish.jpg
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/412368-manafort-appears-in-wheelchair-at-court-hearing
I know this is off topic, but just have to post this – Manafort pretending to be wheelchair bound, yet prior to his court cases he was videotaped briskly walking across streets with no limp or walking impairment. It’s a manipulation to try and get mercy i.e, a reduced sentence. Then later he’ll miraculously regain his stride.
This is even more unrelated…. however when I met Madame Fast in Shanghai …. they used to have these J-walking police… who would start blowing madly on a whistle if someone j-walked….
So what I would do is fake a severe limp and act as if I was a gimp just let out of the box…. the policemen would usually take pity on me and not blow the whistle….
But then one day I did this … and limped past the cop into a shop…. then I walked out of the shop 10 minutes later appearing to be absolutely normal (appearing to be….) ….
And the cop busted up laughing and laughing and laughing….
https://youtu.be/VlysJ0OAGYY
That was kudos in the form of laughter for a humorous proper trolling of the police.
land of the free
https://i.redd.it/cqk6znxpmat11.jpg
More convict$ for Big Incarceration.
Ugo Bardi writes about the Nobel prize in economics of this year, William Nordhaus: « He couldn’t understand — just as most modern economists can’t — that standard economics doesn’t account for the kind of oscillations — including crashes – which are observed in history and that system dynamics describes very well»
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/2018/10/why-economists-cant-understand-complex.html?m=1
I find this very interesting. I know both Ugo Bardi and Dennis Meadows well. I had not realized that William Nordhaus had been tied in with this whole discussion for a very long time. I also did not realize that William Nordhaus is a more recent co-author/author of Paul Samuelson’s well-known Economics textbook, so he is very-well known.
Meadows was just out of graduate school when he undertook the modeling project that ultimately was written up in The Limits to Growth. Meadows was born in 1942. Nordhaus was born in 1941, so was barely older than Meadows. Wikipedia says his doctoral advisor was Robert Solow (presumably of the Solow Residual). Nordhuas was in the field of environmental economics, so was in a very similar field to what Meadows was modeling, but from more of an engineering perspective. Nordhaus in his early years could not see any possibility of doing modeling other than by the methods of econometrics. He evidently has never really caught on to how the economy works.
Australia’s population: How big is too big? | Australia 2050
How is Australia’s burgeoning population affecting the way we live?
omg australia population has crossed 25 million in 2018
decade earlier than forecast
https://youtu.be/vjTvk99pouI
australia without bau will really look like mad max
You mean like India, but with less people?
but whole india is not desert like Australia
yep with the united nations pushing all these changes the financial system along with BAU will be toast very soon and then get ready for world war 3 involving nuclear weapons.
The UN is pushing for the same old same old….for developed countries to allocate more capital to developing countries while taking in more im mi grants and restricting what remains of their local industrial base with carbon emissions caps.
This is a recipe for chaos,
What would you expect the smaller/lower energy consumption per capita countries of the world to want?
They should want nothing, ideally.
The way things are, there will never ever be enough Capital for fulfill their desires for development. Higher expectations often fuel resentment of those who are fortunate enough to live in developed countries. Religion used to keep these feelings of resentment in check to some degree but not anymore. Even a barefoot resident of a third world country is aware of the material abundance that someone is enjoying somewhere else because of mass media and either covets the wealth he or she sees depictions of or resents it. The system is trying to delay disappointment by the policies I mentioned earlier. In developed countries, the average worker , who is not a productive genius, doesn’t become disappointed until they are near retirement age and are often too weak to cause much trouble. They call this “jaded” or “burned out”…but it is really just a person realizing he or she is not going to get what was promised to him or her.
“They should want nothing, ideally.”
And ideally, neither should anyone else!
Thou shall divide and conquer to rule effectively.
after more detailed research the united nations is the main cause of the 2008 global financial crisis along with the ‘global warming hoax’ which is really a plan for the developing countries to become middle-class like the united states http://www.un-documents.net/s6r3201.htm
The link to is a 1974 UN document, which makes pleasant-sounding recommendations that could be carried out if infinite quantities of cheap fossil fuels were available. Then all nations, in theory, could have middle class economies.
In the 2000s, that plan was updated so that developed countries would become poor so undeveloped and developing countries could become wealthy and have middle classes and the instrument to do that would be free movement of capital.
The current plan is to bring the third world labor to developing countries and replace the aging white populations with young and brown workers who will work for peanuts and will not change the culture and political organization of developing countries.
* The current plan is to bring the third world labor to developed countries and replace the aging white populations with young and brown workers who will work for peanuts and will not change the culture and political organization of developed countries.
Indeed the politicos and govt need more people. Because an imported problem is just as good as any.
More people – more problems.
More problems – more govt.
You see, it is a virtuous cycle. Until, well, adding more debt won’t work anymore. Then it suddenly stops working.
But hey, it will be a blast as long as it lasts.
“Governments and central banks have tackled the financial crisis of 2008 with fireworks of liquidity. This way, they have laid the foundation for the next crisis.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4212670-next-financial-crises
Great article but still there is a feeling that the author thinks something better could have been done.
It’s also very focused on money, debt, interest and such.
Whereas the real problem is the real stuff.
I think we’re gradually moving towards a world where little or nothing is profitable.
And there theft in all forms goes rampant.
You’re on the ball. Gail has touched on this by suggesting that in the near future all energy producers will require substantial subsidies from the government in order to remain financially viable. In the meantime, it seems like many large business that I know off is highlighting how much of an Equal Opportunity Employer they are, in order to get contracts from or subsidies from governments. Then there are the handful of wealthy people calling for more socialism, so they don’t have to experience a fall in living standards due to declining opportunities at the top for the educated and connected.
The author clearly misses the role of cheap energy in the whole story. But what else is new?
Because many folks have no clue about temperature adjustments. Judith Curry and Steve Mosher, both well-known skeptics, have commented on this. Curry asked Zeke Hausfather to post some commentary on her blog.
Judith Curry, a skeptic and one of Inhofe’s favorites, has published three discussions of temperature adjustments.
“There has been much discussion of temperature adjustment of late in both climate blogs and in the media, but not much background on what specific adjustments are being made, why they are being made, and what effects they have. Adjustments have a big effect on temperature trends in the U.S., and a modest effect on global land trends. The large contribution of adjustments to century-scale U.S. temperature trends lends itself to an unfortunate narrative that “government bureaucrats are cooking the books”.”
Thumbnail
Figure 1. Global (left) and CONUS (right) homogenized and raw data from NCDC and Berkeley Earth. Series are aligned relative to 1990-2013 means. NCDC data is from GHCN v3.2 and USHCN v2.5 respectively.
http://judithcurry.com/2014…
http://judithcurry.com/2015…
http://judithcurry.com/2015…
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
To which I would add a comment from Steve Mosher, the skeptic who published the Climategate letters.
Christopher Booker win’s the irony of the year award with his piece on adjustments to the temperature record. That’s quite a feat considering it’s only February. His complaint overlooks the clear historical fact that skeptics, above all others, have made the loudest case for the need to adjust the temperature series. Over the years, it’s been skeptics, who have made a vocal case for adjustments . More disturbing is the claim that these adjustments are somehow criminal. We dealt with these type of claims before and completely debunked them.
https://andthentheresphysic…
++++++++++++++++++++++++
A denialist pointed me to this site.
http://arstechnica.com/scie…
++++++++++++++++++++++
In an interview with E&E News, former National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration principal scientist John Bates had a significantly more nuanced take on the controversy that has swirled since a top House Republican hailed his blog post as proof that the agency “played fast and loose” with temperature data to disprove the theory of a global warming “pause.”
Bates accused former colleagues of rushing their research to publication, in defiance of agency protocol. He specified that he did not believe that they manipulated the data upon which the research relied in any way.
“The issue here is not an issue of tampering with data, but rather really of timing of a release of a paper that had not properly disclosed everything it was,” he said.
The links to the above
Thorough, not thoroughly fabricated: The truth about global temperature data
How thermometer and satellite data is adjusted and why it must be done.
SCOTT K. JOHNSON – 1/21/2016, 10:30 AM
https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/01/thorough-not-thoroughly-fabricated-the-truth-about-global-temperature-data/
https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2015/02/09/guest-post-skeptics-demand-adjustments/
Bill…. oh Bill……
Leading g l o bal worming scientist explains how his colleagues FAKED and DESTROYED the DATA when faced with a kkkklimate that has not wormed in 19 years….
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
Give up Bill. You have lost. This is unwinnable.
“Leading g l o bal worming scientist explains how his colleagues FAKED and DESTROYED the DATA when faced with a kkkklimate that has not wormed in 19 years….”
Um, that is precisely what that scientist said he did *not* do…?
When your wife hears a rumour that you were enjoying a romantic dinner with an attractive younger women …
What do you do?
Of course you …..Deny – Deny – Deny
The most serious example of a kkkkkkkklimate scientist not archiving or documenting a critical climate dataset was the study of Tom Karl et al. 2015 (hereafter referred to as the Karl study or K15), purporting to show no ‘hiatus’ in _____________ in the 2000s (Federal scientists say there never was any ______________“pause”).
The study drew criticism from other ____________, who disagreed with K15’s conclusion about the ‘hiatus.’ (Making sense of the early-2000s w….rming slowdown). The paper also drew the attention of the Chairman of the House Science Committee, Representative Lamar Smith, who questioned the timing of the report, which was issued just prior to the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan submission to the Paris KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKlimate Conference in 2015.
In the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided:
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
This is coming from a man who is a leading kkkkklimate scientist….. he is on the SAME SIDE as the men he is exposing….
Why would he LIE????
Give your head a shake — perhaps that will get the rocks out and you might be able to think properly.
This reminds me of the last US election …. a leaker (almost certainly Seth Rich … who ended up dead just a short time after the heads of the Democratic Party said they needed to send a message out to prevent any more leaks)…. exposes massive corruption on the part of HRC and Dirty Bill…
HRC believes (and she is probably right) that this cost her the election….
And a great number of Democrats remain furious that someone undermined HRC in this manner… how dare they expose her corruption!!!!! How dare they wreck her chance to become POTUS.
Wut The F789???????
Should they not be GRATEFUL to the person who leaked this stuff? So that the people would know who they are dealing with when they cast their vote (not that it matters since Potus has not power… but I digress).
Should they not be breathing collective sighs of relief — holy cow – I almost voted for that monster!!! (who no doubt gave the thumbs down sign re Seth Rich…)
Meanwhile —- one of the leading G ___ scientists stands up and says ‘These are FAKE Numbers. The data sets have been DESTROYED’
And instead of rejoicing …. the f789wits on FW attack the man!!! They refuse to believe it.
WTF…. do you want __ ___ to be real? Do you have a death wish? Do you want the planet to have warmed dramatically in the past 19 years?
You’ve been on death row … and the warden has just handed you a Get Out of Jail Free Card.
Use it …. and celebrate.
Comment held…. you will have to wait….
“why is this woman given so much windage”
Se . x . ism on a woman’s website.
Man
Woman
Norman.
Neither woman Nor—man?
coulter is unhinged—that much is obvious
Give her some credit Norman. She was the first TV talking head to predict the election of Donald Trump, dismaying the rest of the panelists and the studio audience present and doubtless causing them to echo your sentiment that she is unhinged, or possibly deranged. But regardless of how many marbles she may be short of a mini billiard set, she certainly has a finger on the pulse of Deplorable America. She knows her base.
https://youtu.be/qC9Pch4__M8
oh—she’s just a mirror of her audience—as is Alex Jones etc etc
And you, grand wompeeoo Norman, are the only intellect in the universe….right!
ah—modesty forbids and all that, but this side of Pluto the question remains open
but on occasion I have been known to read the tea leaves and runes
then offer my twopennorth
(unless I’m wrong about her and Jones being the mirror of their audience?)
Why Ann Coulter Thinks President Trump Is ‘Failing’
The conservative author says that Donald Trump is in danger of losing his most loyal supporters, including her, if he doesn’t build the wall.
https://youtu.be/MJzALqFwxmo
finally some white nationalist is talk that trump
has backstabbing them for not make the wall
plus this guy remind me of Vladimir Lenin,Che Guevara
https://youtu.be/-AxDWoR_zaQ
Make huge promises, and young people will support you!
Make wild, unrealistic and delusional promises and soon…
Enron Musk ensues.
https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1029217328993652736/e1av3Qde.jpg
With his cult following.
why is this woman given so much windage
She always looks like she’s holding one in, but restraint has limits.
That aside, this looks like positioning. Ann, poor girl, is searching desperately for the next potential saviour of America already, to whom she must yet again surrender her troth with tragic abandon. Why do women make themselves so vulnerable with their loving trust in the goodness of men?
It’s not that simple.
http://mmstudies.com/scholars/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/02/1024484-300×300.png
Many species’ females don’t choose which male gets to reproduce. And choice/determination is moot anyway since it is a matter of instinct for all except (arguably) humans.
The nearest, the most dominant, the luckiest, the weakest, the most bright-feathered etc. male gets to reproduce, just as millions of years of blind iteration by surviving organisms has determined.
I dont think the islamic female species decides when, if and with whom to .. associate .
De facto situation for virtually all “female species” before the 1960s or so (actually, for all human species in general). They did it anyway.
The surplus of resources in some places since then has resulted in the male species unable to make these decisions in some cases, because their role as protector/resource-provider lost value to the females.
How come males seem to suffer from not being able/allowed being resource providers, but females seem to do fine not being child producers? Or do they just cover the failure better.
“How come males seem to suffer from not being able/allowed being resource providers, but females seem to do fine not being child producers?”
Because 100 years doesn’t change human nature? The rapid shift in societal structures favour women because they have additional freedom but the childbearing/se_xual role is still instinctively valued more. Thus, males are disadvantaged due to their own unconscious self-abnegation, regardless of stated beliefs about equality etc. They can still *choose* not to disadvantage themselves (celibacy/single), but enough don’t that it isn’t a problem.
In many cultures, historically, parents have arranged marriages for young daughter. The girls have no choice in this. Also, I wonder in Africa, with all of the polygamy, whether the young girls who become additional brides of older men have any choice in this arrangement. Perhaps the choice is move in with a rich older man’s harem, or starve.
Indeed the most successful species let the female decide herself.
Only the “sh1thole” countries deal with garbage such as arranged marriages.
“Indeed the most successful species let the female decide herself.”
Every culture/civilisation had some form of arranged marriage for all but the last ~100 years. Industrial societies are unsuitable for conventional marriages and families. Non-industrial societies are unsuitable for se_xual emancipation & feminism. “Species”/culture/race are irrelevant.
Oh really, where are your sources of those claims?
I state without a doubt that only the most prosperous human societies let the female decide herself.
The “sh1th0le” countries are that way because, well, they suck when it comes to breeding and mating strategies for both sexes.
There is no border crisis..This is just a fake issue to distract from the fact that conservative lead states in America, are the poorest, least productive, most dangerous, least educated, lowest life expectancy, etc..
America has become less attractive to economic migrants. Illegal immigration has dropped 80 percent, since it’s record high in 2000. That’s more than fivefold decrease in less than 20 years.
Source: Border Patrol
https://www.scribd.com/document/375672329/CBP-Border-Security-Report-Fiscal-Year-2017
More Mexicans are leaving the US than coming here–and it’s not because of deportation
http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-a-dream-displaced-life-back-home/
Chart Source: Associated Press
https://imgur.com/a/2gLCO7s
The South historically depended on slave labor and never had a history of assimilating waves of immigrants. The Civil War never changed the fact the South prefers local labor and social cohesion over cosmopolitanism. The North and South had two completely different economic models. That is changing now, because the North has become un-competitive in some industries.
The dangerous parts of the South are obviously areas where there are large numbers of poor minorities, same as the North. There is plenty of poverty in non-Southern states. Visit any place outside a college-town. The further you get away from good schools and world class hospitals, the more you’ll be reminded of the South.
The monastery needs a wall. The celibacy is the reason why muslim Turkey will never be a part of the EU. The acceptance of celibacy is the crucial difference that distinguishes the religions of the limits, which aim at the things beyond this world (christianity, buddhism) from the religions that concentrate on this world and do not recognize its limits (muslim, jewish religion).
The imploding system simply does not accept the possibility of the future growth incorporated in the progeny. Morover, the progeny is dependent comes from the past and hits the wall of the limits the same way as their parents. The wall of the limits is here for everybody. Neither parents, nor children can overcome it.
Was listening to a lecture.. “.. but 150 years ago everything changed, we developed science. And now humanity is taking off as a rocket. And next.. our technology will take us to the stars”..
Science..
Technology..
Medicine..
Governments..
Democracy..
PROGRESS..
Freedoms.. and rights
AI
VR
Banks.. and economics..
Without coal.. none of those would exist.. without NG.. without oil.. nope.. zip.. zilch.. zero.. bye bye PROGRESS
Just been wondering about our civilizations main narrative.. why is it so hard for people to see, that what we can create and build as mere humans, is very little.. compared to exessive flows of energy..
what caused the Renaissance.. was it human genius.. or was it energy flows from other continents directed in to italian city states.. what caused the industrial revolution.. was it science and technology, the genius of man.. or huge amounts of coal-energy.. what made it possible to put a man on the moon.. was it the Great Generation doing their thing.. or was it the constantly growing oil production.. why did the USSR collapse and the U.S. won the cold war.. was it the glorious victory of free markets over a faulty idology.. or was it perhaps.. just energy..
Our energy is peaking as we speak. Would have peaked already, in 2006 – 2008, if not for the trillions of debt put in to fracking and other energy production. But a day not too far away, our current smokes and mirror global economy will hit the real world cliff face.
And as our energy goes away.. so will Science.. Technology.. Medicine.. Governments.. Democracy.. PROGRESS.. Freedoms.. and rights AI- VR- Banks.. and economics.. will go away
But boy oh boy do we cling to that main narrative of our civilization.. our genius.. our humanity.. our science and technology.. will build us wonders and miracles.. no worries.. energy is just a part of the natural world that humans subjugate.. and in the end.. no matter the natural world and the energy available.. we.. our destiny.. what we deserve.. is to go to the stars..
The thing that is so annoying to me, about the power of that narrative has over people.. is that as the train is rocketing towards the cliff face.. all adult conversation is impossible.. everybody is drunk and partying.. another round of champagne and caviar to everyone.. as the cliff face is rocketing towards us.. 5… 4… 3… 2..
Meanwhile… what I am wondering… is if we must burn more coal… otherwise we die…. why is it that we are told that we must stop burning more coal because it is wrecking the kkklimate?
Devoid of logic.
We get it FE.
You feel foolish for having believed in CC.
We are aware that you feel bad about getting dunce of the year.
Get over it, your CC tantrums are very repetitive.
There is nothing we can do about clima te so move on.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/7f/6a/8b/7f6a8b022485b67f1367734f1a1acd10.jpg
The smell of burning FE coal posting in the morning..
Smells like…… victory… 😎
Keep on banging about the kkkkkliiiimmm chbggrrr FE. 👍
Unable to address Texas senator Ted Cruz’s questions about “the Pause” — the apparent g lobal-w arming standstill, now almost 19 years long — at Tuesday’s meeting of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Oversight, Sierra Club president Aaron Mair, after an uncomfortable pause of his own, appealed to authority: “Ninety-seven percent of scientists concur and agree that there is g
lobal w arming and anthropogenic impact,” he stated multiple times.
The myth of an almost-unanimous c limate-c hange consensus is pervasive. Last May, the White House tweeted: “Ninety-seven percent of scientists agree: #c limate c hange is real, man-made and dangerous.” A few days later, Secretary of State John Kerry announced, “Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists tell us this is urgent.”
“Ninety-seven percent of the world’s scientists” say no such thing.
Read MORE … MORE MORE MORE:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/10/c
limate-c
hange-no-its-not-97-percent-consensus-ian-tuttle/
http://img.picturequotes.com/2/192/191349/if-you-repeat-a-lie-often-enough-if-becomes-accepted-as-truth-quote-1.jpg
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c8/c8/e2/c8c8e2c6312b0d71d31eae5fed9dbab5.jpg
Is it just me who would love to take a ride in a proper coal burning transportation device of old.
Mmmm, COAL POWER!! Love it!
Let’s enjoy some more about steam locos in the Sandaoling coal mine:
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/05/c_136950929.htm
BURN MORE COAL!!!
Interesting!
all animals have evolved to deal with the here and now
planning for the future—insurance, pensions, savings etc is a manifestation of our recent industrial expansion.
prior to 1800 that didn’t exist for the common man, but now we regard it as our normality and infinite.
but of course, it isn’t
as our energy economy collapses, so will the trappings of modern civilisation, and we will return to feudal states.
trying to explain that is largely pointless, because it means that our current mode of existence is going nowhere, which none of us can really face up to.
What do we want?
A prosperous future!
When do we want it?
Now!
The idea that we can plan for the future is based on the premise that the future will be very much like the past. Actuaries, of course, have been very much involved in these forecasts, and in furthering the belief that we can make reasonable forecasts.
If there were no limits to growth, perhaps these forecasts would make sense. But they don’t. Everyone has been brainwashed into thinking that prosperity forever is possible, and that we can plan for the future. Even climate change forecasts are part of this overreach in believing prosperity fueled by fossil fuels is possible forever.
There are indeed a whole lot of “promises” available–Social Security; private pensions; values of stocks and bonds; values of homes, farms and factories; values of derivatives. They have mostly worked out as planned for a fairly short period, thanks to fossil fuels consumption and growing debt obligations. But the whole system cannot work, for very long. We cannot face this problem, so we look at partial models, and assume that they tell the whole story. They allow us to think that prosperity will go on forever.
Freedoms and rights certainly existed pre-fossil fuels: but they were attached to particular social classes, families, institutions, towns, etc.
For instance the ‘freedom of the city’, the ‘privileges’ of the bourgeoisie of a town , the rights as electors’ of property-holders – which might be very different to those of a neighbouring settlement.
The concept of a ‘freeman’ in Germanic, Norse society, or Roman, which would be contrasted with the slave, the bondman, the noble…….
What fossil fuels ,and the unprecedented surplus and luxury they brought us, allowed to develop was the concept of universal rights and freedoms, as exemplified in the French Revolution, regardless of birth, nation, town, etc.
Essentially, fossil fuels enabled the abolition of strict, formal hierarchies in human societies. Quite a charming delusion!
An interesting aspect of monthly payment contracts for this and that essential to our lives is the attempt to convert everyone into a kind of bonded person, who can be fined and prosecuted for non-payment or breach of the terms of the contract, rather than a free person paying for a service or goods received.
I would agree! All we need to do now is go backward–not so likely.
Great post, thanks.
Norman just contributed on similar note and I tried to counter the instadoomers often as well that the path towards relapsing into more openly admitted feudal structured society is indeed the most likely future. Irrespective of the next economic model and its reaction and adaption to crisis of the day/threshold..
Energy and resource flows into Europe made the Renaissance and the Enlightenment possible: individual geniuses made them beautiful. 🙂
You have the story exactly right. The story that women can work outside the home, and receive equivalent wages to men, is also made possible by fossil fuels. Perhaps a few wealthy women could do this, in ages past–“Lydia, seller of purple cloth” for example. Without fossil fuel, women will again valued for their ability to produce children, so that at least some of the children can live to adulthood. The whole #METOO movement becomes silly. It is a product of our abundance and wealth.
But the problem is that we need more machines for survival, not more children. The children or slaves were the machines that kept the system going in the past. With the deteriorating populations (ageing and genetic mutations), the children are not enough, they rather become a burden. We need more machines, which, in the end help survive us and our children.
There is no way back, we are completely dependent on energy. When the machines fail, the population collapses.
Indeed.
The imported people are for enabling the government jobs programs. You see, more people leads to more government. More machines leads to less government.
The japs builds autonomous cars, automated hospitals, industrial robots and trains. The Swedes and Germans import third world youngsters. Let’s see what will happen once adding new people and debt fail to boost the economy.
The machines in Japan will simply be taken offline and decommissioned. Question is, how about those “pension savers” from the third world? How will those be taken “offline” will they perhaps protest and cause some trouble?
“The imported people are for enabling the government jobs programs. You see, more people leads to more government. More machines leads to less government.”
With enough machines (not going to happen, but anyway) the native population will be unemployed, thus leading to more govt. Even the professional class will be impoverished without access to cheap energy surplus to that directed at the machines, making them govt-dependent one way or another. Sure the additional immigrants are a problem waiting to happen without overall BAU, but they don’t alter the basic calculus.
You see, there is a fundamental flaw in your assumtion.
Communism isn’t viable. It has been tried and failed every time. Capitalism is the only salvation for a lucky few in a resource constrained world.
“Communism isn’t viable. It has been tried and failed every time.”
What I described isn’t communism. Neither pure communism or capitalism has ever been tried (not possible in industrial civ). What has been successful for about 200 years is unprecedented massive interaction between state, private and corporate wealth and power on a global scale. The Russian version failed around 40 years earlier than the US, Chinese, European etc. versions.
surely the ”success’ over the last 200 years has been entirely due to the input of fossil fuels
corporate and national wealth and power have existed and conflicted for millennia, but able to function only within the energy factor available at the time—basically human muscle and animal products/vegetation/food supplies
no political/economic/military ‘system’ can expand beyond their indigenous energy base without looting it from somewhere else.
“Communism”, or its “modern” variant with “social democracy” and the welfare state, only works in a society with an abundance of natural resources.
hahaha so you think Japanese
won’;t take migrants from third world
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2018/06/15/national/abe-led-panel-adopts-new-visa-plan-accept-500000-low-skilled-laborers-2025/
https://www.postguam.com/the_globe/philippines_asia/japan-s-plan-to-allow-more-foreign-workers-meets-protests/article_e879fda0-d274-11e8-9e17-2734beadadde.html
It is a huge difference taking in 1% each year by giving permanent residency and citizenship to people who will mostly never have a real job.
You are aware that India is a sh17hole country?
It suck5 because the people of India mostly.. 5uck…
Why don’t you post some critical articles about the rampant horrors and misdeeds in India?
Yes, let us now hear some brutal honesty about India.
Japan takes in about .5% of population for targeted jobs there arent any japanese for. If they get sick I doubt they get to stay.
Besides, the Japs import the smartest and brightest making horror stories such as India even more of a sh1thole country with only the human garbage left crawling in the backwardness and filth of Hinduism.
They always did take targeted populations that have a good work ethic and no weird religious beliefs.
I dont have enough fingers to count the people I know living in Japan. Healthcare and English teachers lead the pack followed by manufacturing.
It is pale skinned humans who live in a cold climate who are highly dependent on large quantities of energy.
They and their high-tech form of civilization, which they have imposed on most parts of the world, whose survival is at risk.
It’s possible for a small number of people who live outside of civilization to survive. …
If they are not destroyed in a scramble for resources when the system collapses.
The white man enabled the rapid population expansion by the use of technology and cheap fossil fuels.
No one asked the Asians and Africans to start the breeding programs once the power of the fossil fuel era was unleashed.
I thought females of all colors through all times until recently gave birth every 18m-a couple of years.
The church combined with potatoes introduced the breeding programs in the mostly pagan Europe.
How did we keep population stable before? Coitus interruptus, infant icide or other means? Didnt the church arrive about 800 years before potatoes?
Why potatoes? Higher yields than other crops, but not different in nature.
Starches in potato are easily freed by boiling.
The pagan religion was decentralized.
With the church came centralization and literacy. Thus a means for population control and propaganda for the government to exploit.
With Internet again came decentralization and oh, the unimaginable horrors, for the brain washers of old.
“And as our energy goes away.. so will Science.. Technology.. Medicine.. Governments.. Democracy.. PROGRESS.. Freedoms.. and rights AI- VR- Banks.. and economics.. will go away”
I’ve been reading as how thinking of a sudden (future) reduction of these things gets you off the subject. That being as how all these things have been gradually going away, and will continue to do so–a reality that is somehow hidden in plain sight. Strategies for facing the sudden future decline and strategies for facing continuous gradual decline might well be different.
Are they different.. strategies of sudden future decline, and strategies for facing gradual decline? Hmm..
When the global debt bubble pops, so will all the banks and currencies. Pop. Pop. Pop. And when the currencies and banks go, so will all the supply lines will also go pop- pop- pop.. globally..
Without global supply lines we dont have fuel, the grid = electricity, trucks, groceries.. therefore a gradual decline.. isnt possible..
Because we have trillions in debt. Because all banks and currencies are linked to each other. When they go.. they all go.. it all goes.. A gradual decline isnt possible. Its all or nothing.
What strategies remain for the sudden future decline then??
Head for the hills. Or there is always the possibility to dig out a survival shelter.. isnt there??
http://www.terravivos.com/secure/applicationpricing.htm
Vivos Survival Shelters are one year shelters.. you dig a big hole, a very big hole, and wait for a year.. be bored out of your mind.. and after one year.. what is the reality that is waiting outside??
Bosnian war survivors have good stories..
https://www.primalsurvivor.net/shtf-survival-tips-and-stories-from-bosnian-war-survivors/
The rest of your life.. an hour by hour struggle.. constantly hungry.. constantly afraid of gangs, snipers, afraid of everything.. ready to eat.. everything.. and anything
The only “strategy” that has any interest for me, is the question, what kind of things should “everybody” be doing, from moment zero? What should the radio-stations be broadcasting? If there were news on television, what should they be telling us about? What pamphlets would the emergency government be printing? What should the martial law military officers be doing with their endless amounts of work party fodder?
The only question that interests me even mildly, is what the “Rulebook for the Last Emergency” for martial law governments, looks like
It is all fine to stockpile food and supplies for a disaster scenario, but in a real SHTF situation, those supplies will quickly run out (or be stolen from you).
They say that you can survive up to 30 days without food, but hunger will get the better of you long before then. When hunger sets in, you will eat anything.
Bosnian war survivors tell stories of eating pigeons and rats. They ate stinging nettles and other urban edible plants. When no food was available, they ate grass and leaves.
It is understandable that people literally dying of thirst would gulp down the first bit of water they got – but many people died from diseases obtained from drinking dirty water.
Bosnians spent a lot of time during the war crouched down in basements and holed up in apartments. It is incredibly boring. Without anything to occupy their minds, fear would overwhelm them.
https://personalliberty.com/one-year-in-hell/
This is different … this is eternal hell… well not quite…. the radiation … when it rolls in …. will put an end to the misery
VK, I see just about zero point/potential for survival given your “sudden” scenario. Somebody must be working awfully hard to keep that scenario at bay, and I doubt that they’ll stop soon. Since I’m old enough to see the “gradual” scenario very clearly, that’s the one I focus on. I do things like show how a building can last longer, or how coal might be produced without the greatest catastrophe resulting, or how an economic system might work with less deforestation–just by planning better and more imaginatively. Not to worry, the rank and file of humanity appears to be entirely immune to comprehension of such things. I’m counting on a miracle though.
And the saddest part about it is that even when we hit that cliff, people won’t accept finite world issues, they will be looking for someone to blame, and listen to a strong man pointing out scapegoats.
Living large in the twilight of techno-civilisation and approaching doom. What does it feel like?
Senses working overtime.