The world economy seems to be seriously ill. The problem is not overly high oil prices, but that does not rule out energy as being a major underlying problem.
Two of the symptoms of the economy’s malaise are slow wage growth and increasing wage disparity. Tariffs are being used as solutions to these issues. Radical leaders are increasingly being elected. The Bank for International Settlements and the International Monetary Fund have raised concerns about the world’s aggregate debt levels. The IMF has even suggested that a second Great Depression might be ahead if major banks should fail in the manner that Lehman Brothers did in 2008.
Figure 1. Ratio of Core Debt Growth (non-financial debt including governmental debt) to GDP, based on data of the Bank of International Settlements.
If the economy were a human being, we would send it to a physician for a diagnosis regarding what is wrong. What really is needed is a physician who has a wide overview, and thus can understand the many symptoms. Hopefully, the physician can also provide a reasonable prognosis of what lies ahead.
Individual specialists studying the world’s economic and energy problems tend to look at these problems from narrow points of view. Some examples include:
- Curve fitting and cycle analysis using economic data by country since World War II, as is often performed by economists
- Analysis of oil supply based on technically recoverable reserves or resources
- Analysis of fresh water supply problems
- Analysis of population problems, including rising population relative to arable land, and rising retiree population relative to working population
- Analysis of ocean problems, including rising acidity and depleting fish stocks
- Analysis of the expected impact of CO2 production from fossil fuels on climate
- Analysis of rising debt levels
In fact, we are facing a combined problem, but most analysts/economists are looking at only their own piece of the problem. They assume that the other aspects have little or no influence on their particular result. What we really need is an analysis of the overall economic malady from a broader perspective.
In some ways, the situation is analogous to having no physician with a sufficient overview of where the world economy is headed. Instead, we have a number of specialists (perhaps analogous to a psychiatrist, a urologist, a podiatrist, and a dermatologist), none of whom really understands the underlying problem the patient is facing.
One point of confusion regarding whether today’s oil prices should be of concern is the fact that the maximum affordable oil price seems to decline over time. This happens because workers around the world increasingly cannot afford to buy the goods and services that the world economy produces. Inadequate wage growth within countries, growing globalization and rising interest rates all contribute to this growing affordability problem. To make matters confusing, this growing affordability problem corresponds to “falling demand” in the way economists frame the issues we are facing.
If we believe the technical analysis shown in Figure 2, the maximum affordable West Texas Intermediate oil price has declined from $147 per barrel in July 2008 to $76 per barrel recently. The current price is about $62 per barrel. The chart suggests that downward price resistance might be reached at $55 per barrel, assuming no major event occurs to change the current trend line. Any upward price bounce would appear to leave the price still much lower than oil producers need in order to reinvest sufficiently to allow future oil production to be maintained at current levels.
Figure 2. Down sloping diagonal line at the top of chart gives an estimate of the trend in maximum affordable West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices. The downward trend line starts in July 2008, when oil prices hit a maximum. This high point occurred when the US real estate debt bubble started unwinding. Later maximum points correspond to points when oil prices stopped rising and crude oil reservoirs started refilling. Chart prepared by Amit Noam Tal.
Thus, our concern about adequate future oil supplies should perhaps be focused on keeping oil prices high enough. It takes a growing debt bubble to keep oil demand high; perhaps our concern should be keeping this debt bubble high enough to allow extraction of commodities of all kinds, including oil. Figure 1 seems to show a recent downward trend in Debt to GDP ratios for the Eurozone, the United States and China. This may be part of today’s low price problem for commodities of all types.
Needless to say, climate analyses do not consider the severity of our energy problems, nor do they consider the extent to which there is a connection between energy supply and the ability of the economy to operate as usual. If the real issue is a near-term financial crash that will radically affect future fossil fuel consumption, the climate analysis will certainly miss this event.
The Real Nature of the Limits to Growth Problem
To truly understand the headwinds that the economy is facing, we should be looking at the combined effect of all of the limits that the individual specialists have been studying. We might also include other issues not listed. The 1972 book The Limits to Growth presents an early computer model of how at least some of the limits of a finite world might be expected to play out.
Figure 3. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today’s graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in “Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil” http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf
This early approach reflected an engineering view of the problem, considering expected diminishing returns with respect to resources of all types. Other considerations included likely resource needs based on prior economic and population growth trends and efficiency gains. The Base Scenario shown in the 1972 book (Figure 3) showed collapse taking place about now–in other words, in the early part of the 21st century.
In the time since the 1972 Limits to Growth analysis was prepared, there has been a major discovery relating the importance of energy to the economy. Ilya Prigogine tackled the problem of the physics of thermodynamically dynamic open systems, earning a Nobel Prize for his efforts in 1977. When energy flows are available, many structures, called dissipative structures, can grow and change over time. Examples include plants and animals, hurricanes, stars (they expand in size, then collapse at the end of their lives), ecosystems, and economies. These structures are utterly dependent on energy flows. The economy needs energy in almost the same way that humans need food. Without sufficient energy flows, the world economy will collapse.
It is because of the laws of physics and energy flows that markets are able to set price levels. Indirectly, physics sets the maximum affordable price for energy products based upon the total quantity of goods and services individual workers can afford. These maximum affordable prices may be invisible, but they are very real. Economists may talk about “demand” for energy products, but the real issue is affordability: “Will the laws of physics allow prices to stay high enough to provide the commodities the world economy needs?”
It is because of the laws of physics that debt can play a major role in the economy. Debt can provide time-shifting services if an economy does not have sufficient energy supplies to permit the equivalent of bartering of finished goods and services for new capital goods. Debt can allow future goods and services (manufactured with energy products) to serve as payment for capital goods and other goods purchased using debt. Thus, debt acts as a promise of future energy supplies. These future energy supplies may not, in fact, actually be available at prices that consumers can afford. This is why debt bubbles so often collapse and have a devastating impact on economies.
In theory, the new physics discoveries might also be added to the Limits to Growth model. If this were done, I would expect the downslopes in Figure 3 to be much steeper. Also, the date when the population decline starts would likely move forward, relative to other declines. The actual dates of the declines would of course be expected to change as well, because of updated knowledge regarding resources, population, and other factors.
Including the physics aspect of the economy would lead to many periods when sharp changes take place. When these sharp changes take place, there might be wars, collapsing governments, and epidemics, all causing large numbers of deaths. Debt bubbles might pop, causing deflation and widespread banking problems. These types of events are similar to those that economies have experienced in the past. There is no reason to expect that today’s world economy will have unusual lasting power.
Of course, modeling one piece of the economy at a time, as described at the beginning of this post, leaves out such troublesome implications. Economists tell us all we need to worry about is price fluctuations as the economy substitutes one product for another. If a person has blinders on, perhaps this a good description of the world we live in. Otherwise, the model leaves a lot to be desired.
Implication of the Laws of Physics Being in Charge of How the Economy Operates
Politicians would very much like us to believe that they are in charge. They would like us to believe that adding more technology can solve all of our problems. They would like us to believe that citizens can make a significant difference by voluntarily cutting back on their own energy consumption. They would also like us to believe that countries can cut back on their debt levels without the whole Ponzi Scheme unraveling.
Anyone who has watched bread rise in a bowl can see the implications of growth within a finite structure. It doesn’t take very long for the volume growth of bread dough to exceed the space available. Even if the bread maker pushes the dough back down again, the effect is only temporary. The bread dough quickly rises again to overfill the bowl it is in.
One possible implication of the 2008 financial (and oil price) crash is that we are very close to limits, right now. Regulators can try to fine tune how the economy operates by raising and lowering interest rates (sometimes using Quantitative Easing (QE) in the process), but they are, in some sense, playing with fire. Figure 4 shows the dramatic impact that popping the real estate debt bubble seems to have had in 2008. It also shows the impact that adding and removing QE has had.
Figure 4. Figure showing collapsing debt bubble at the time US oil prices peaked. Figure also shows the use of Quantitative Easing (QE) to stimulate the economy, and thus bring oil prices back up again. Ending US QE seems to have had the reverse effect.
By raising interest rates, regulators could easily send part, or all, of the world’s economy to a financial crash that is worse than 2008’s. Or the economy could again reach limits, by itself, with just a little economic growth. In some sense, the world economy is very close to filling the bread bowl, as it was before the 2008 crash pushed it back down.
The World Economy Is Reaching Limits in Many Areas Simultaneously
Many people believe that we are reaching limits in at most a few areas of the economy, such as “running out of oil.” The evidence suggests that because of the networked nature of the economy, we are really reaching limits in many places, simultaneously. The following represent some problem areas:
(1) Too Low a Return on Labor for Workers Whose Jobs Are Easily Exportable. With globalization, workers are indirectly competing with workers around the world regarding who can produce goods and services most cheaply. They are also competing with computers and robots that can easily replicate their functions. The net impact is a world where a large share of the citizens find themselves living at a level not much above the subsistence level. In more developed countries, young people may live with their parents longer and may delay having children almost indefinitely, because wages are not keeping up with living costs. Many studies have shown rising wage disparity. In some ways, the wage disparity now seems to be as bad as in the 1930s.
Figure 5. U. S. Income Shares of Top 1% and Top 0.1%, Wikipedia exhibit by Piketty and Saez.
(2) Interest Rates. Interest rates are the lever that economists like to adjust upward or downward to try to stimulate the economy or push the economy downward. Short term interest rates, up until about the end of 2015, were at the level they were at during the Depression of the 1930s.
Figure 6. Monthly average 3-month term treasury bill rates in chart prepared by FRED. Amounts shown through October 2018. Grey bars indicate recessions.
Raising interest rates is like adding a little more dough to the already over-full bread bowl. With these higher interest rates, borrowers need to pay more for monthly payments, making the strain on their finances even worse than it was previously. Figure 6 shows that raising interest rates very often creates a recession. In fact, the Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be the result of an increase in short term interest rates. This time we are being told that the increase will be gentle, but if the bread bowl is already overly full (in the sense that affordability of the output of the economy is already way too low, for many workers), what difference does “gentle” make?
(3) Return on Capital Investment/Added Debt. Falling long-term interest rates between 1981 and 2016 seem to be an indirect reflection of falling long-term return on capital investment. If capital returns had been higher, there would be more demand for debt, forcing interest rates up to levels closer to where they had been when the economy was growing more quickly.
Figure 7. Monthly average 10-year US Treasury interest rates in chart prepared by FRED. Amounts shown through October 2018. Grey bars indicate recessions.
Another way we can look at how productive the addition of debt has been is by comparing the debt increase each year with the GDP increase (including inflation) each year. We use current year GDP as the denominator in both calculations. Figure 8 shows the indications for what the Bank for International Settlements calls “Core Debt” (that is, Total Non-Financial Debt, Including Government Debt).
Figure 8. Dollar Increase in US Core Debt as % of GDP, shown beside GDP dollar increase, as percentage of ending GDP. Amounts based on FRED data.
Comparing the red and blue lines on Figure 8, GDP rose fairly reliably in the pre-1981 period, as the amount of core debt rose. The core debt increases tended to be higher than the GDP increases, but not a great deal higher. Thus, the US ratios on Figure 1 could be close to 1.0 in early years.
Once interest rates started falling after 1981 (see Figures 6 and 7), core debt growth and GDP growth greatly diverged. I expect that quite a bit of this change was related to asset price inflation as interest rates fell. With lower interest rates, assets of all types started becoming more affordable. Thus, a greater number of buyers could be expected, driving up prices of assets of all kinds, including homes, stores, and factories. Owners of these assets could “take the equity out” as prices rose and could use the equity to purchase other goods and services. In theory, these activities might somewhat stimulate the economy. Figure 8 suggests that the benefits of these activities with respect to the “goods and services” portion of the economy (red line) were slight at best, however.
Figure 9. Dollar Increase in US Financial Debt as % of GDP, shown beside GDP dollar increase % of ending GDP. Amounts based on FRED data.
Figure 9 shows Financial Debt amounts corresponding to the Core Debt amounts shown in Figure 8. At first glance, it appears that Financial Debt (blue line ) has provided no benefit whatsoever for the Goods and Services part of the economy (red line). But clearly the bankers who created these financial products benefitted from the income they received from them. So did the low-income home buyers who bought homes that they could not really afford in the early 2000s. Home building was stimulated, and inflation in home prices was stimulated. Banks benefitted by being able to transfer their problem home loans to unsuspecting buyers. Whether this whole arrangement had any net benefit to the economy, other than to create pseudo-solutions for people who could not really afford the homes they were purchasing, is doubtful. But when the economy is near limits, strange solutions to stimulating the economy are attempted.
(4) Commodity Prices. If we have a supply problem with one kind of commodity, we likely have a supply problem with many kinds of commodities at the same time. The reason why this happens is because the prices of many types of commodities tend to move together, in response to general market conditions. This is why the US government talks about inflation in oil and food prices as a separate category of Consumer Price Inflation.
If prices for commodities are generally low, as they have been since 2014, this means that commodity investors have received low rates of return for several years. With low rates of return, producers of many commodities have cut back on reinvestment. With inadequate reinvestment, supply crunches are likely to occur across a broad spectrum of commodities simultaneously. A recent Wall Street Journal article says, Supply Crunch Looms in Commodities Markets. The article mentions copper, zinc, aluminum and nickel. Other articles talk about oil in a similar fashion.
The question becomes, “Can consumers bid up the prices of all of these minerals sufficiently, to encourage enough reinvestment to solve the world’s commodity supply problem?” Food prices would likely need to be bid up as well, because oil is used heavily in the production and transport of food.
It was possible to bid up commodity prices in the 1970s, because the economies of the United States, Europe, Japan, and the Soviet Union were all growing rapidly. Also, women were joining the labor force in large numbers. It was possible to bid up commodity prices in the 2002 to 2008 era, because China and other Asian nations were rapidly ramping up their demand for goods and services of all kinds.
Figure 10. China energy production by fuel plus its total energy consumption, based on BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018 data. The difference between the production figures shown and the black line consumption total is imports.
Now we are facing a much different situation. China is in much worse shape than most people recognize because its coal supply seems to have passed peak production. This has happened because the cheap-to-extract coal is mostly depleted, making it unprofitable to increase coal production without significantly higher prices. Imported coal and natural gas are expensive options. China also has a serious debt problem.
Because of China’s problems, the country will necessarily need to cut back on manufacturing, road building and home building in the years ahead. (This would happen, with or without Trump’s tariffs!) For some minerals, China currently represents over 50% of the world’s demand. China is the largest oil importer in the world. It is doubtful that China can make major cutbacks in its use of commodities without lowering prices for many commodities worldwide.
Persistence of Outdated Models
We are dealing with a situation where a large number of people suspect, at least vaguely, that the world economy is like bread dough about to outgrow its bowl, but this is not an issue anyone really wants to quantify. Everyone wants solutions; they don’t want a better delineation of the problem. Repeated publication of climate change forecasts is, in a sense, a denial of the possibility that we may be facing resource limits that are close at hand. Such publication is saying, in effect, that the closest limit that citizens need to worry about is the climate limit.
Also, the reliance of researchers on the past work by others in the same field tends to reinforce what are essentially incorrect models. Cross-pollination across fields is difficult, given the technical nature of today’s academic research. Furthermore, it becomes increasingly difficult to properly model a situation that is very complex and depends upon non-linear interactions.
Putting All of These Issues Together
The focuses of today’s narrow research can give a surprisingly distorted overview of where the economy is. A few areas in particular stand out:
(a) The choice of the word “Demand” instead of “Affordable Quantity” makes it sound like the buyer has more control over purchases than he really does. Growing demand seems to depend on continually increasing debt. This is the reason for the debt bubble problem.
(b) Framing the energy problem as “running out of oil” makes it sound like searching for substitutes will be a fruitful area for solution. Because of the affordability issue, this search is futile unless the substitutes are truly cheaper, when all costs are considered. Declining availability of many minerals because of persistently low commodity prices could be an issue as well.
(c) If limits are being reached in many areas simultaneously, incentives for countries to co-operate seem likely to go downhill quickly. Bullies who claim to be able to obtain a bigger share of the shrinking total supply will tend to be elected.
(d) The physics tie between energy and the economy makes major energy consumption cutbacks virtually impossible, without risking economic collapse.
(e) Adding technology isn’t really a solution to the debt problem, because it tends to make the affordability problem worse. The problem is that while adding technology seems to lead to more employment for a few elite workers, it tends to displace lower-wage workers at the same time. The spending of lower-wage workers is really needed if adequate demand for commodities is to be maintained. Additionally, the ownership of the technology-related capital goods tends to be concentrated among the elite; this further shifts wealth from the non-elite to the elite.
The long term prognosis for the world economy seems pretty grim, when all of these issues are put together. Defaulting debt and a resulting collapse in asset prices of all kinds is of particular concern. The default of subprime housing debt was an issue in the US at the time of the Great Recession; the next round of defaults is likely to start elsewhere. Debt defaults could start fairly soon, perhaps in the next 6 to 12 months. The more hostile political situation we have been seeing recently seems to be evidence that limits are close at hand.
The world is fixated by the forest fires in Hollywood burning down stars’ mansions. With supreme irony some of them belong to those who helped raise millions of dollars for the Israeli Army which is now burning the hovels of Gaza.
The Hollywood warriors have insurance of course, and other homes too, sometimes many of them. The hovel-dwellers of Gaza have neither.
The brave firefighters of California are well-equipped and have the wind of hope of millions of well-wishers at their backs. There are no firefighters in Gaza.
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/443868-israel-gaza-strike-palestinians/
https://cdni.rt.com/files/2018.11/article/5beaecdbdda4c8513f8b45b5.jpg
This is all because the Palestinians are weak… and we know what happens to the weak…
So stop moaning George… thing are… as they are meant to be
Sit back and enjoy the entertainment… if you become bored by the fireworks switch over the 24/7 MMA channel…. or fire up some violence from this list https://www.ranker.com/list/most-violent-video-games/devon-ashby
In Palestine … they have New Year’s fireworks… every couple of months…. it’s better than Disneyland!
Apparently Strivetravel.com has packages — bring the kids to enjoy the bombs bursting in air…
The ironic part about that statement is that Hollywood likes to see itself as outsiders, as weaklings.
https://youtu.be/EV8tsnRFUZw
Who are citizens of the world, highly educated and cultured, feel entitled to tell others how to live via their activism.
Weak people are often not highly educated and cultured, and do not get a lot of attention time when they preach because no one in the media values what they have to say
Much of Hollywood is not only actually dumb they are also incredibly ignorant and naive. What a awful combination to be dumb, ignorant and naive. And to think people listen to what they have to say because they pretend to be something they are not on TV. Wow.
the UK is saved! the UK is saved!
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2018/11/13/prime-minister-calls-cabinet-to-downing-street-after-brexit-deal-reportedly-agreed-with-eu/
a deal with the EU! a deal with the EU!
We will have to wait and see whether anything newsworthy has happened. Is it a Brexit in name only?
the OFW commenting crew in the UK will have to give us the inside scoop…
Theresa May now has the non-trivial challenge of getting this lousy deal through parliament.
I rather enjoy watching politicians like May turning on a spit: after all, they wanted to be there so badly…..
Absolutely. They’re all either ‘nanny knows best’ types and/or psychopathically ambitious chancers. It’s just hard to enjoy this particular spectacle when one of the potential outcomes is me becoming functionally poorer and another is the UK economy having some sort of Korowicz-style seizure. 😀
One might try thinking of the UK’s potential situation as a kind of Ragnarrok – it gives the whole mess a gloss of mythical Nordic grandeur. We shall find out what we are made of!
Although Monty Python is somewhat nearer the reality, I suspect.
It’s as though Britain is being run by over-excited school debating teams, playing with the levers of power.
The liberal politicians appear to have a curriculum rather than a platform these days….
The only smart politician is John Key…..
Just looking at his bio …. to see what he is up to:
‘John is enjoying the final days before the end of the world arrives drinking beer with his mates and playing a lot of golf’
Family
Key married Bronagh Irene Dougan in 1984; they met when they were both students at Burnside High School.[6] She has a BCom degree, and worked as a personnel consultant before becoming a full-time mother. They have two children, Stephie and Max.[6] Max is a night-time radio host for George FM, and is also a singer.[132] Stephie is a performance artist.[133]
George FM? That’s a heavy duty techno radio station …. Max most obviously is a pill-head if that’s his gig. Good for him!
This was posted by Rockman (a person that works in the oil fields of Texas as a person that finds new plays for investors). He wrote the following, which I think is worth reading because he’s suggesting that Shell can drill for offshore oil at a cost of $30. a barrel. That’s significantly lower than what most people on this site have been floating as a min. cost of oil production.
“Many still underestimate the economic value of Deep Water drilling. While costs are significant folks don’t pay enough attention to what those huge proven reserve values mean for public companies. From Shell Oil at:”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene … Shale.html
Shell argues that the earnings are much better offshore. “The most excitement at the moment is from the deepwater,” Andy Brown, Shell’s head of exploration and production, told the Financial Times in an interview. Shell has prioritized projects in Brazil (aided by the $50 billion acquisition of BG Group), the Gulf of Mexico and the North Sea. The reason why deepwater drilling is so exciting to Shell is that the cost of new projects has fallen significantly in recent years. “Deepwater can compete if not demonstrate higher returns because of fundamental cost reduction,” Brown said. “Break-even prices in deepwater — we are now talking $30 per barrel.”
“Folks can believe or not believe what Shell says. But I personally know some DW players who say they can make an acceptable (though not great) ROR at $15/bbl on some of their projects.”
That’s worth noting because that’s coming from someone that works in oil. as opposed to someone that does not. Information from the horses mouth. And if true, we may be much further out to peak oil than many have previously thought.
OIL PRODUCERS NEED $100+ OIL
Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html
Of course oil industry people will tell us that shale is where it is at — that investors should pile in because they are going to make a killing….
Such people are usually referred to as con men… although their name cards usually have something more generic… like ‘investment advisor’….
I had forgotten this article from 2014, talking about how much oil company debt had soared. Also, shale companies have figured out how to issue equity instead of debt, so it doesn’t look as bad. It would be interesting to see some more recent data. I expect that a big part of what has happened is a big cutback in new investment.
Council on Foreign Relations: Saudi Arabia’s Break-Even on Oil is Approaching $120 per barrel
http://www.cfr.org/oil/fiscal-breakeven-oil-prices-uses-abuses-opportunities-improvement/p37275?cid=ex-cgs-oil_breakeven_discussion-levi_use-113015
http://i.cfr.org/content/Breakeven_figure_Saudi_Arabia.jpg
Yep! Which is why the Saudi’s will say they are cutting production but in reality are going to be pumping more to keep the money flowing.
Look what they have been doing since about April of this year:
https://d3fy651gv2fhd3.cloudfront.net/charts/saudi-arabia-crude-oil-production.png?s=saudiarabcruoilpro&v=201811131148y
The thing that is hard to tell is what the $30 covers. There are a whole lot of taxes. I expect that these aren’t covered. There is probably corporate overhead, over and above the $30. Also dividends and new investment.
I am wondering if it is only the expense associated specifically with the new investment.
And if there is an accident like the recent Deepwater Horizon, all those profits are wiped out. It is very risky offshore. I would suspect insurance costs would be high. I agree with Gail that is is tough to know what $30.00 covers.
That probably covers the cost of the metal barrel that the oil is stored in 🙂
from what I remember about him, Rockman knows what he’s talking about…
but…
what is perhaps missing here is that these kinds of oil plays are basically rarities…
a minor portion of total worldwide oil production…
and these will only get rarer year by year…
this doesn’t sound to me like anywhere near a game changer…
just a little feelgood story in the endgame (next decade or two) of oil production…
I could believe that. But why is the cost so low? Maybe because of desperate oil service companies who has lots of idle rigs/equipment and will take contracts at a loss just to stay in the game? This can work as long as the banks are creating debt to make up for the difference.
“This is a must watch video – now you will understand the Chinese implosion & why China stocks & economy are not coming back for probably decades!”
https://youtu.be/g3rxjaOPQD4
I like what Navarro says about the supply chain and where the action really lies! 19:50 mark onwards
CTG would love this!!!!!!
“… the Chinese implosion & why China stocks & economy are not coming back for probably decades!”
what in blue blazes does that mean?
only 2 decades from now, the Chinese economy (and every other economy) will be far lower…
and there will never ever be a “coming back”…
never ever…
I expect we have equivalent supply chain problems on practically everything needed for the economy. Things like clothing is now made abroad, for example. The major thing we seem to make in the US is manufactured food, in fancy boxes. Also, fast food, and restaurant food. None of this is good for us either.
I was involved in supply chain for years. To most people who don’t look far ahead, they are marvelled at the efficiency and cost savings. To me, in horror, It will be our downfall
People did look ahead, they were silenced by acolytes from industries that were growing because of globalization, such as I.T. and finance. Industries that did not depend on global supply chains were shrinking and their acolytes were portrayed as corrupt and protectionist, dangerous, obsolete and are often embodied as the Texan oil tycoon or the unemployed blue collar worker .
Local industry (and local people) used to be lionized by the media, in America, but now they are often portrayed as a liability. American apparel , a hipster clothing manufacturer that prided itself on making its products in America, also prided itself on hiring foreign, non-citizen immigrants rather than American citizens..not just for virtue signaling purposes but because .it was “good for business.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-immigration-americanapparel-idUSTRE49R01020081028
Global supply chains: a fantastic web of ever-weaker links…….
One thing people don’t think about is that each of the suppliers has to worry about the availability of credit, and the interest rate that will be charged. Perhaps the biggest company at the top of chain is doing fine in this regard, but smaller companies may very well have trouble with credit freezing up in a downturn. Or interest rates will rise too high.
There was an article today called, “The iPhone Slump Is Rumbling Through Tech: Prospect of weak demand reverberates across Apple’s supply chain”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iphone-slump-is-rumbling-through-tech-1542119582
This article talks about many of its suppliers showing poor results, although none will blame their problems on Apple, adhering to the code of silence that Apple demands.
A different article I read (which I don’t have a link to) mentioned that while Apple may have ways around falling sales hurting its revenue too much, such as charging more money for fewer phones or charging more for ongoing services, the suppliers don’t have the same flexibility.
Apple has been coasting on Steve Jobs’ ideas, particularly the Iphone for over a decade. .
Their current strategy, which you have described as
“charging more money for fewer phones or charging more for ongoing services”
is the strategy of a company that is losing customers.
They can’t keep it up forever. Eventually, they will be forced to lay people off and sell off assets to reduce capacity to demand.
They need a new successful product but haven’t had one in a long time.
What is needed is fewer armchair Apple pundits and more successful oil companies.
Get a clue.
And we will marvel at how quickly the chain seizes up … when the financial system implodes…
At one point today prices fell bellow $55
“Markets Right Now: Plunging oil prices sink energy stocks”
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/markets-now-stocks-open-higher-wall-street-59162073
Oh just wait til the market collapses and oil prices drop below 20 as OPEC scrambles to produce flat out ignoring any and all quotas. It is gonna get ugly in the energy sector.
WTI dropped to about $26 in Jan/Feb 2016…
perhaps we will see a new low in early 2019…
it’s perhaps counterintuitive to some, but extremely low oil prices are a bad sign for the global economy…
though I do like lower gasoline prices…
as long as the oil price doesn’t drop to near zero and threaten the end of BAU…
The CBs have noticed that consumers are sinking below the surface with high oil prices….
Perhaps they are adjusting so that they can struggle to the surface for another breath of air….
This of course pushes producers below the surface…. so prices can only go so low for so long… or they drown…
Round round we go …. until one or the other ends up
https://c8.alamy.com/comp/GDWN46/drowned-body-GDWN46.jpg
That brings back memories…. must have been around 10 years old…. big day at the beach…. then the emergency services shows up …. with divers…. we watched with morbid fascination as they dragged the bottom with grappling hooks… finally latching onto a dead body …. we saw the bloated deformed face as they loaded it onto the gurney…
I was in no rush to get back into the water for quite some time after witnessing that…
The horror will be many times greater … when the next drowning occurs….
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-13/israeli-tanks-prepare-major-gaza-offensive-after-green-light-major-retaliation
Kinda funny in a twisted way…. imagine being a Palestinian…. you have had your land stolen from you… you try to protest peacefully — you get a hail of bullets and white phosphorous sent your way…. the MSM tells the world it’s your own fault…
So then you try to fight back with sticks and stones… and a few home-made rockets…. you then get hit by war planes artillery and tanks….
But it’s your fault says the MSM .. you launched a rocket into a civilian district and Shlongo got a sliver….
Now this would be infinitely more frustrating than being put on hold and losing the phone line and having to start over again….
One can… understand… why there are volunteers willing to strap on bombs
You should just enjoy the show and live large. They’re doing it for you and for us.
Now enjoy the Eddy and Freddie show. Montreal, 1981. I heard you were there?
Oops! Wrong one. Here we go – Eddy and Freddie, Montreal 1981.
As Joe Walsh said, life’s been good so far. Mustn’t complain.
10 out of 10 for the outfit!
Of course it’s done so we can live large… that’s why extinction gets my vote
Oh well….
https://memeguy.com/photos/images/hamas-reaction-to-the-violence-in-the-middle-east-126180.gif
😅
Maybe you should ask yourself why j*ws are never depicted as villains in Hollywood movies, or in tv shows even. Why why?
They are usually depicted as happy go lucky … funny …. amusing … quirky perhaps….
But never never never will you see a Shylock character…. or a villain…
Hollywood/MSM is owned by….
The thing is….
Their brand is toxic…
You can have all the Larry David and Jeff Greene’s you like …. but when you out Jesus and get him pinned to a chunk of wood… and you lend money often at usurious rates… and take pounds of flesh if it does not get repaid…. you are pretty much f789ed for eternity… there is no overcoming this…
Sure there are a fair number of people who do not harbour hatred towards this group of people…. but there are literally hundreds of millions across the planet…. who would cheer if someone picked up where a-dolph left off.
It will be very bad for these people when BAU fails…. the guns will be pointing at the money changers….
Because they own your a$$. Now they also own your personal private data. So, what are you going to do?
Their victory is total and complete.
No empire lasts forever
This empire will outlast you. Do you have time?
I have very little time left to live…. so I do not doubt that.
Which reminds me…. I need to accelerate the bucket list… Patagonia in December…. Mexico in late Jan…..
Yes keep the shekels flowing you must.
https://starecat.com/content/wp-content/uploads/darwins-finches-and-their-highly-specialized-beaks-seeds-nuts-nectar-shekels-jew-jewish-nose.jpg
^^J*w/Chosen Person ^^
Kowalainen , that is
https://www.meme-arsenal.com/memes/193858a0030889a115d1649f6a2feabe.jpg
Is he crying because he is striking you?
It’s tears of joy.
this is the obvious conclusion
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/nov/11/alarm-over-talks-to-implant-uk-employees-with-microchips
check this out:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/9lNmsOLDAdUC/
Everyone has a problem with Zionist Jews. No one likes a small group of people who think they are God’s favorite people. The history of the jews is the history of civilization in the history courses I took at school. The world wars was presented ,also, as a cumulation, of growing antisemitism. Many of the cultural and intellectual achievements of industrial civilization can be attributed to Jews,
Here is the one year oil price view:
https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?module=chartImage&rawOutput=1&symbol=CL*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1510600546&endDate=1542936546
I think a big factor in the oil price drop is Saudi Arabia has abandoned the production limits and is producing more oil. I guess the Saudis need the money and oil prices have already been dropping and they have been squeezed. So, my guess is the Saudi’s will start producing oil flat out. Wow, the resulting drop in oil price is incredible.
It doesn’t take much of an imbalance to move prices a lot!
Instead of seeing how high prices will go, it looks like now we are waiting to see how low they will go. It is nuts!
Yep–
I called that one wrong.
We shall see—–
Have you missed that Saudis said that they will cut oil exports by 500 kb/d in December?
LOL. The Saudis say all kind of things that never come to fruition.
The oil price is really crashing deep into $50/bbl territory now:
https://nasdaq.websol.barchart.com/?module=chartImage&rawOutput=1&symbol=CL*1&width=450&height=286&startDate=1534184013&endDate=1542196413
Sort of worrisome!
Goldilocks?…..
This is interesting:
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/E3CA/production/_100541385_chart-obesity_cancer-h49on-nc.png
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-46179118
Now, the Trinity scientists have been able to show, in Nature Immunology journal, how the body’s cancer-fighting cells get clogged by fat.
And they hope to be able to find drug treatments that could restore these “natural killer” cells’ fighting abilities.
Yes – that’s what is needed – a DRUG!
Hey – maybe they can invent a DRUG that when taken gives people some self-control … that stops the fat f789s from piling garbage into the trolley …. that gets them off their lardy asses and … going for a walk…
Bellator 158: Evangelista ‘Cyborg’ Santos suffers fractured skull ater flying knee knockout by Michael ‘Venom’ Page
https://youtu.be/-VplnCL0zfs
http://media.tmz.com/2016/07/18/0717-cyborg-instagram-3.jpg
I wonder what the Romans would make of this … I bet they’d like it!!! Instead of sending the guy with the bashed in head to the hospital you just heave him into a lion pit …. now that would be getting your money’s worth!
Round and round the circle we go….
Extinction …
https://youtu.be/P_Oh7HizY5I
US foreign policy – a giant jobcreating program.
I highly recommend listening to this podcast:
«In recent decades, both democratic and republican administrations have tried to guide other countries toward liberal democracy. But John Mearsheimer’s latest book, “The Great Delusion: Liberal Dreams and International Realties,” says that strategy has made the U.S. a “highly militarized state fighting wars that undermine peace, harm human rights, and threaten liberal values at home.” Last week at the Hoover Institution’s Washington office, Jack Goldsmith sat down with Mearsheimer to talk about it».
https://overcast.fm/+BEBNY2cak
US shale needs to add another ‘Russia’s worth of crude’ to prevent global oil shortage, IEA warns
IEA says a global oil shortage is coming by the mid-2020s.
Fatih Birol, the IEA executive director, tells CNBC it would be a “miracle” for U.S. shale to fill the gap.
The economist said while some have pointed to the ability of U.S. shale oil to make up the difference, that theory would be severely tested as between now and 2025, the U.S would need to add more than 10 million barrels per day.
“In other words, the U.S. needs to add one single Russia in seven years time in order to avoid a major tightening in the markets,” said Birol before adding, “It can happen but it would be be a small miracle.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/us-shale-oil-must-add-another-russia-worth-of-production-iea-says.html
https://www.godlikeproductions.com/sm/52d222e9.gif
Euan Mearns ( http://euanmearns.com ) returns an error but the rest of the site seems to be working and have recent posts ( http://euanmearns.com/category/energy/ ). Couldn’t find any contact info, if anyone has an email address it might be an idea to make them aware of the problem.
The link seems to be working now. I have Euan’s email address.
“A worldwide economic slowdown will add fuel to the rise of populism and anti-globalisation movements in 2019, according to credit ratings agency Moody’s.
“The agency has offered a bleak outlook for next year up to 2020. It expects softening economic growth, higher borrowing costs, and an uptick in market volatility.
“This negative prediction is largely due to increased domestic and geopolitical tensions. These presented the single greatest threat to credit markets.
“As income inequality worsens, particularly in the US it could “ratchet up political polarisation”. This would make sudden policies changes more likely, and fuel market volatility.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/11/13/slowdown-world-economy-fuel-political-polarisation-moodys-says/
wat i’ve been banging on about for years:
“As income inequality worsens, particularly in the US it could “ratchet up political polarisation”
which in plain language means secession into nation states, at war with each other
Nations group together in times of prosperity, are held together by a common energy resource, then cut each other’s throats when prosperity inevitably declines.
It will happen in the USA, just as it’s happening in Europe, as far right idiots rise up to promise ”greatness” and more idiots vote for them, convinced that prosperity is something you vote for.
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/the-european-union-was-a-construct-of-infinite-prosperity-7a401c225171
All of these countries are going to have a tendency to “come apart.” It is hard to tell where a person might want to be.
I would add Canada and Mexico to the list less polluted. Depending on how thhe weather goes one or the other.
The south was right. We would both (north ad south) be happier apart.
The North doesn’t want to admit that for a few reasons.
1. The North has an important tradition of multiculturalism that the South doesn’t. If they admit that they can’t along with the South because of cultural differences, that would give different factions within Northern states as a pretext to demand their own independence. It would disintegrate the social order of all Northern states. “Diversity is our greatest strength” is what the North keeps saying in hopes of keeping the Union, and the social order of their states together although less and less people believe it as time goes on.
2. The North needs the South for food. If it has to pay significantly more for the South’s food, they could see their populations decline…or something else could happen that would make them lose ground.
i dont want to agree with you but i cant see an alternative
when there has never been prosperity, different groups of people cannot be forced to come togethe. Iraq is a perfect example of a fake nation-state.
The workaround that the elites are thinking for this is global socialism
otherwise known at Universal Basic Income…they figure if everyone has the same ‘basic’ income, there will be little to fight over
…..literally.
I’m sure Melania will love rubbing shoulders with the likes of us, shopping for the latest fashions in thrift shops.
“”Oooooh look—I threw this out last year—I can save $000s by buying it back fror $5—Donnie WILL be pleased!!!””
If you don’t rub shoulders with hoodrats or rednecks, I don’t know why you think she would.
Ten years ago, Americans voted for a liberal black guy who they admit they knew very little about because he promised them prosperity if he was allowed to push policies that originated from the intelligentsia. Weren’t the people who voted for him idiots, as well?
He also promised that he’d not be another Bush …. that he’d close the prison camp in Cuba…
And then he initiated more wars… continued the existing wars… and kept the prison camp… enhanced the powers of the NSA spy machine…. and he ran up trillions more in various types of stimulus and debt… and called that prosperity.
Of course he did all of that…. he had the same bosses as Bush….
And yet the Euro and globalist elite think that by disparaging nationalism – eg Macron’s recent speech – they can ignore it: one suspects the ballot box is going to remind them of political reality, and the steady disintegration of the economies and societies they rule.
I agree Norm. It is beginning.
as a politician you are locked into a fixed mindset
straying outside it—and saying so—makes you unelectable
if on the other hand you are a dictator then elections are irrelevant—but that doesnt absolve you from reality, might just delay it for a bit longer
“More than a third of U.K.’s small- and medium-sized businesses see the pound dropping at least 10 percent after Brexit, but almost none of them are preparing for it.
“Almost one in five SMEs believe the pound could reach parity with the euro or fall even lower for the first time in history, according to a report by payments firm WorldFirst released on Tuesday. However, as many as 95 percent of those companies don’t have a currency strategy to deal with a possible increase in supplier costs and reduced margins, the report said.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/u-k-small-firms-not-prepared-for-big-pound-slump-after-brexit
“Germany is expected to report a report an outright contraction in Q3.
“If realized, the news could weigh on the Euro regardless of the low expectations… Consecutive disappointments in industrial output, unimpressive consumption, sliding purchasing managers’ indices, and even a squeeze in the trade balance surplus resulted in very low expectations.”
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/german-gdp-preview-outright-contraction-could-send-the-euro-even-lower-regardless-of-expectations-201811121539
“Italy’s budget crisis is raising broader concerns about the sustainability of its public debt and risks spreading turbulence to others, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday.
“With Rome locked in a fight with the European Commission over its plans to raise spending, the ECB has made it clear that it will not step in to bring down Italy’s borrowing costs as the rise in yield was the result of the government’s breach of EU rules.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-ecb-policy-deguindos/italys-budget-tussle-raises-debt-concerns-ecbs-de-guindos-idUKKCN1NH121
The Spanish regional governments are locked in a struggle with Madrid as they want to increase public spending, due to ‘growth’ and the fact that the Crisis is long past, but Madrid insists on the EU rules. Madrid is winning, of course.
Good: Germans need a wake-up call, an economic shock. They’ve been cruising along in comfort for too long now. Politics might start to get interesting if there is unrest there.
High electricity costs are not helping …. time to rally the Luddites to Pulverize the Panels and Wreck the Windmills.
“Japan’s central bank has become the first among Group of Seven nations to own assets collectively worth more than the country’s entire economy, following a half-decade spending spree designed to accelerate weak price growth.
“The 553.6 trillion yen ($4.87 trillion) of yen assets the Bank of Japan holds are worth more than five times the world’s most valuable company Apple Inc. and 25 times the market capitalization of Japan’s most valuable company Toyota Motor Corp.”
http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201811130026.html
“Japanese regulators are starting to look into underwriting practices in the nation’s corporate bond market, where banks routinely say deals are successful even in cases when they are under-subscribed. The move suggests that the potential damage to some investors in Japan’s ¥76tn ($669bn) company note market is getting too big for the government to ignore. Bloomberg reported last month that underwriters in Japan failed to fully sell at least 29% of corporate debt offerings in September…”
https://www.gulf-times.com/story/612796/Japan-to-probe-debt-market-s-secret-as-more-bonds-
Bread and Circuses 2.0
See the video
UFC fighters display brutal facial injuries
https://www.rt.com/sport/443749-ufc-korean-zombie-rodriguez-pictures/
Would it be accurate to say that these UFC fighters volunteer to do this?
They get paid… not a whole lot … but they do get paid…
But then this is a far better option for them than the alternative … prison… what great fun for these animals — they get to commit vicious assaults … without being arrested… and they get paid!!!
Winning!!!
that was a great fight, btw
It’s brutal … but not brutal enough…..
A few suggestions if they really want to appeal to the demographic that is watching this:
– give them baseball bats to club each other with – fight to the death
– give them knives to fight with – to the death
– remove the gloves — fight bare knuckle — to the death
– release a lion into the ‘octagon’
– pump the fighters with steroids HGH speed etc… (oh my bad – they already do that…)
Dan – you appear to be a very smart guy (and a class act)… surely if you can pull your head up from the mountain of blow on your desk and read this …. you will see that Fast Eddy’s ideas have huge merit… and could really help you grow your ‘sport’
UFC chief Dana White also put the pic on his Instagram account, with the caption: “So AWESOME!!!! If you missed this fight last night between the @koreanzombiemma and @panteraufc u missed one of the sickest fights EVER with the most Unf***ingbelievable ending EVER!!! So much respect for these 2 guys. I love this f***ing sport SO MUCH.”
http://evonomics.com/nettle-daniel-defense-universal-basic-income/?utm_source=newsletter_campaign=organic
»We’ve seen plenty of examples of this in the slow and halting march of progress. Perhaps that is what will happen with UBI. We will look back and wonder what took us quite so long. Until then—and this is what scholars are uniquely placed to do—we have to keep the idea alive.»
An economist about UBI – a good example of their basic assumption of progress as a quasi Perpetuum mobile machine.
General Electric struggles with a “sense of urgency.”
Though shares [GE] have already plunged so much, they nevertheless plunged another 6.9% today to $7.99 a share, after its brand-spanking new outsider CEO, Larry Culp, on the job for only six weeks, got on CNBC and declared boldly and with refreshing straightforwardness what everyone has known for a long time, that after $152 billion of share buybacks since 2013, GE has too much debt.
To avoid a debt restructuring and stay out of bankruptcy court, GE has to sell whatever it can to try to whittle down its debts. This has been the theme for a while. Now the company is doing it with “a sense of urgency,” he said. And he emphasized: “We have options.”
There’s GE’s healthcare business for which GE is considering an IPO, he said. And there’s Baker Hughes, which GE acquired at the worst possible time and needs to sell — on the principle of buy-high-sell-low — to “generate real cash to bring leverage down,” as he said.
But selling cash-flow-producing business units to pay down an overwhelming pile of debt cuts down on cash-flow producing business units the company still has to service the remaining debts. Dismantling an overindebted financialized industrial conglomerate is always ugly.
“It’s tough to play offense with the balance sheet in the shape that it is in,” Culp said. Shares are down 58% from a year ago because investors have figured that out a while ago.
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/12/fangman-come-re-unglued-debacles-sinks-goldman-sachs-apple-ge/
Bail out imminent?
GE makes jet turbines and locomotives. the government will want to keep those “in-house” and viable.
They also own NBC News and are the largest producer of wind turbines in America..
“We want to provide pedestrian connectivity from our box to the experiential zones that are planned on our footprint,” Johnson continued on the podium.
“We want to augment these experiences and activities with more food and beverage, with health and fitness, essential services and entertainment.”
“Give people something to do, then they will shop,” Ken Nisch, chairman of retail design firm JGA, told Forbes.
“But shopping can’t be the thing to do.”
“A transformation is underway,” Johnson said in his speech.
“We are working with the local community to really master plan a vision, not only for Walmart, but shared with the municipality. We are using terms like collaboration space.” And, he added, “We are going to hold ourselves accountable to the community for improving well-being.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-12/here-how-walmart-plans-seize-further-control-your-community
Sounds Awesome!!!!!
Might I suggest they add some safe spaces and crying rooms for liberals… toilets for Tranny Freeks…. a parking lot with EV plugs…. free wifi for connecting to FB… a gaming area… a cinema with 24/7 reality tv playing…. a shooting range for right wingers…. a wh ore house staffed with those new rubber dollies for dirty old bas tards…..
Something for everyone!
Call it Utopia?
OMG, they have invented …wait for it….a village!
That is so freeeeaaaakeeeening amazing!
Dey ar-so veri cleva huh?
Throw in an organic coffee shop….and ban plastic bags and straws….. and voila…. it’s a SUSTAINABLE village!
Aimed at making people buy more stuff.
This is genius. Incredible monumental … genuis
Give everyone a ‘I Love Sustainable’ badge….. if,and only if, they’ve bought enough during their visit.
The fatter you get eating food bought at a ‘sustainable’ shopping centre, the more ‘sustainable’ you are too. It’s only logical.
Give everyone a ‘I Love Sustainable’ badge….. if,and only if, they’ve bought enough during their visit.
I hereby award you the gold medal for best turning the illogical into logical… well done!!!
http://cdn6.bigcommerce.com/s-xg5j30s/products/210/images/639/gold-first-place-medal__57537.1491676108.500.659.jpg
If you think this tentatively-titled new invention, “the village” is awesome, then you will be blown away by the newest food trend that is sweeping the nation!
Critics can’t stop praising
ttps://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/bowl-food-trend-is-about-nourishing-comforting-meals/news-story/46d3036cae3d52f01068e106d662abbf
Lisle says she finds eating out of a bowl “particularly comforting”.
“I’m drawn to the way you can happily nurse a bowl on your lap and scoop up just the right amount of each component of the dish — a slice of this, a mound of leafy greens and a scrape of dressing, all while perched at the kitchen counter or curled up on the lounge,” she says.
“And the best part of using a bowl … is when you finish eating … and you feel you need to defecate… a bowl is so much better than a plate… you just dump everything out the window … give it a quick rinse… and you are ready to go!’
Very comforting to know this .. thanks Lisle!
I guess Walmart is a bit like the US forces in Viet.mam; they had to destroy village after village in order to save them……now Walf.art has completed phase 1 and, having saved one small and large community after another, they can pretend to be like….you know…bringing democracy to Iraq…?
Hey, I get confused!!
Who is in charge around here anyways!
…mutters and pours another Gin..
I recommend following Leo DiCaprio’s model re: his concrete Belize eco-resort ….
Pour tonne after tonne of cement creating a massive pad …. invite some hippies in to paint it with images of flowers and trees and grass …. throw in a few thousand made in China plastic palm trees (that’s eco because you don’t have to waste water on them…) …
Then build all the structures out of concrete and steel (invoke the right of Cognitive Dissonance to explain that away)…..
And there you have it — a sustainable concrete Eco-Village/Shopping Mecca….
Perhaps add one of these in the centre… but paste logos of major brands onto the box …
https://youtu.be/s3crVQC9rPs
And finally…. once the masses have massed…. HIT it with a dozen of these:
http://static1.businessinsider.com/image/5266dcfd6bb3f7d73f05924a/the-door-between-terrorists-and-secret-launch-codes-reportedly-left-ajar-during-nap-time.jpg
Spain is late to this game: in our regional capital, Pamplona, the small shopkeepers are alarmed at the prospect of IKEA moving in, and are trying to get them banned.
Small shops don’t always offer the best prices, but there’s so much more to life in a town if it’s to be pleasant, which is why I make a point of going to the very few real family businesses here in England.
In this city, that unfortunately amounts to a mere two: a bookshop which is 130 yrs old, and a ham, pie and cheese shop which also keeps me supplied with paella rice at 7 x what it would cost me in Spain (typical mark-up on imported speciality goods in the UK) – but they are very nice people and I admire them for keeping going and running such a nice place.
‘ain’tchoo’?
https://youtu.be/f96p-IhcZhQ
“We want to provide pedestrian connectivity from our box to the experiential zones that are planned on our footprint,” Johnson continued on the podium.”
Do you need to go to a special school to learn how to speak like that? I’m suprised he could do it without laughing. Try it. Read that sentence out loud while you look at yourself in a mirror.
‘from our box’ …
After perusing the concrete Walmart Eco-Village and playing a few rounds of the new Cop Killer video game…. Marvin and his family walking into The Box … and purchased some stuff made in China that they did not need… and hopped into their SUV for the ride home.
If I were the Global Emperor (instead of just world champion)…. I would have a elite team of thugs armed with baseball bats… tasked with finding people like Johnson … and beating them to death.
Any random automon exec will do … to appease the gods
https://cdn.corporate.walmart.com/dims4/WMT/285a072/2147483647/resize/1200x%3E/quality/90/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.corporate.walmart.com%2Fe0%2Fc8%2F1e1e7f4447669e73c3790b3b760b%2Fdoug-mcmillon.jpg
Corporate executives like that can’t be killed: living dead.
Why does this generic C-level suite look like his face has been photoshopped onto someone else’s head?
Eerie soulless stuff.
Sounds like they want to own a city and charge the residents for doing non-shopping activities such ass walking and breathing.
No shopping will be required for them make money.
If this is what it is attempting to build, I will say it’s clever. No one to my knowledge has tried running a for-profit city before.
https://medium.com/@marklutter/building-autonomous-for-profit-cities-4533f668a591
What I want to know is …. will there be a lane for these?
http://livedoor.blogimg.jp/laba_q/imgs/8/b/8bef9828.jpg
http://ronaldrenwick.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/fat-guy-on-scooter.jpg
FE, as you know, there will be no future for the disabled, infirm or the elderly. There might not be much opportunity for the physically fit, also, if we go backwards fast.
When she blows… them people on them scooters will look like basting turkeys.. as soon as their charge runs out they’ll be easy pickings…. sitting turkeys…
Or more like succulent waggyu… tender meat that comes with zero exercise for an entire life.. riddled with fat ….
Throw that on the barbie mate!!!
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/IAWysAfAjV8/maxresdefault.jpg
Wal Mart is just taking up the role that malls filled in the past
Ya… kinda like the Agora…
The agora (/ˈæɡərə/; Ancient Greek: ἀγορά agorá) was a central public space in ancient Greek city-states. The literal meaning of the word is “gathering place” or “assembly”. The agora was the center of the athletic, artistic, spiritual and political life of the city.[1]
Ernie went to the agora with his friends to perform athletic feats… paint … discuss the upcoming elections … and pray….. and then he bought some plastic stuff that was made in China…
Mall … and now Walmart… just another name for Agora…
Oh and btw — perhaps Walmart has not noticed… but people are not going to the Malls (lower end malls are the ones most affected) because those people don’t have any MUNNY to spend … and because to a certain extent they buy the plastic stuff online now….
So re-creating the Mall…. is unlikely to help their sales…. however it’s all about driving the share price…. so this might resonate with investors…. kinda like how Tesla does….
“a wh ore house staffed with those new rubber dollies for dirty old bas tards…..”
It will be a forward-thinking wh ore house called…”The Caravan” with these people as “service providers” or the Entrée
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/newpix/2018/04/22/06/4B69E7A300000578-0-Central_American_migrants_from_the_caravan_rest_at_a_community_s-a-70_1524375732231.jpg
and these will be the people who will wait on you for drinks and f00d
http://livedoor.blogimg.jp/laba_q/imgs/8/b/8bef9828.jpg
you will be able to engage in your vices while making the world a better place.
A kiosk to hand out clean syringes to heroin users?
US Presidents honoring those who have served on Veterans Day
https://i.imgur.com/q61NxcO.png
3 of these guys have started wars in new countries, creating said veterans.
I’m sure the count will be 4 before all is said and done.
And what about all the millions of civilian deaths in Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen?
No one cares or even hears about them here in the US. We just honor the veterans that killed them. And for what? I all seems so useless.
++++++++++
We need to kill them … so we can have more of their stuff…. we could just ask them for more stuff… but humans are not so keen on sharing their stuff…
Experiment… go to Wall Street at lunch… look for bankers in suits having lunch at fancy restaurants… approach and say ‘you appear to have a lot of stuff…. would you please share some of your stuff with me … let’s start with paying for me to have a fancy lunch … then I will need your credit card so I can go shopping this afternoon’….
When that does not work… pull out a gun and demand that they give you their wallets… I suspect you will get a lot further with that line of reasoning…
++++++++++
Unfortunately, I do too.
Gun control would be a great idea America; not just domestically huh.
These wars added lots of jobs, both for the soldiers, and for those selling weapons and all kinds of related goods. War has been a “service industry” of sorts.
4 depicts the only non-hypocrite.
https://peakoil.com/alternative-energy/scientists-develop-liquid-fuel-to-store-suns-energy-up-to-18-years
‘Scientists Develop Liquid Fuel to Store Sun’s Energy Up to 18 Years’
“A solar thermal fuel is like a rechargeable battery, but instead of electricity, you put sunlight in and get heat out, triggered on demand,” Jeffrey Grossman, an engineer works with these materials at MIT explained to NBC News. The fluid is actually a molecule in liquid form that scientists from Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden have been working on improving for over a year.
“The energy in this isomer can now be stored for up to 18 years,” says one of the team, nanomaterials scientist Kasper Moth-Poulsen from Chalmers University. “And when we come to extract the energy and use it, we get a warmth increase which is greater than we dared hope for.”
We’ve heard this all before…*yawn*
Besides, we are in overshoot, so we should be doing less, not more. But every day it’s still more, because folks don’t get it, will never get it. So nature will just have to deal with the problem in the old fashioned way.
and nature will through her diminishing returns policy on energy
it’s almost as if nature is indifferent to human happiness…
good thing nature never acts against us…
Nature is the quintessential accountant, All i’s will be dotted and t’s will be crossed as she balances her books, whatever that may incur.
Its her timeline that differs from ours and that enables some to assume that we will not have to ever face a reckoning.
what?
didn’t Man conquer Nature?
Ha thats ‘old mother nature’…you know, garden of Eden and all that. This is new nature..’hell have no fury such as a women scorned and all that ….so she begins ‘grinding slowly and ever so finely’.
The CBs are attempting to roger Mother Nature… Mother Nature is not liking that course of action.
Mother nature is so “sexist”. I wonder how the children of PC family growing up? Nursery Rhymes are sexist, you cannot do this because it is racist, that is politically incorrect. This cannot, that cannot. I mean we have gone so far off the tangent an it is just not possible to revert to mean.
When I was very small, I took great pleasure in plucking hairs from a nanny goat at the zoo.
Then the goat, having tolerated it for a time, had had enough and I was sent flying.
For the last two centuries, we’ve been plucking hairs from Mother Nature thinking what fun it all is…….
Please f789 off and die.
Ohio man preparing for apocalypse arrested with stockpile of unusual weapons
http://www.wdam.com/2018/11/09/ohio-man-preparing-apocalypse-arrested-with-stockpile-unusual-weapons/?fbclid=IwAR1is9VdjI9D9OP_mlwXCUcBQoHKhj_lTNXXqaQkpmXPI6Dr3t3tHfq3Aqc
Check out these weapons
https://imgur.com/a/ZQ4fHEW
That’s an extremely innovative weapon!
I bet he was planning to use that to bash in the head of a Doomie Prepper Organic Farmer…. before having his way with the wimmin folk… and sitting down to a dish of mushed organic pumpkin.
Mmm mmmm good!
FE,you should see the caltrops I’ve made for spiking gypsy raiders. Alas, Top Secret, but they are good……
Sounds exciting!
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-12/oil-price-tumbles-trump-says-opec-shouldnt-cut-production
Having surged higher at last night’s futures open on the heels of headlines about Saudi’s about-face on production, President Trump has reversed those gains as he tweeted: “Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!,”
Sending WTI back to unchanged…
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I wonder if the Saudis could cut back if they wanted to. They the need the cash along with everyone else. If prices were to spike in a rising rate / inflationary environment things could get ugly fast and as we all know the tools available to contain it are few and limited. Hence the Iran sanction waivers. Pretty obvious they are trying to keep the plates spinning but it is looking wobbly.
Meanwhile we await the November 15 “bloodbath” when it is expected large investors will be pulling out of equities, i.e. stocks / bonds
Dow currently down -490 points
-552 points
Oil – $1.31
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=youtube+juggling+chainsaws&&view=detail&mid=6E06A6D3F2F8E7E6D1646E06A6D3F2F8E7E6D164&&FORM=VDRVRV
Oil ends down for an unprecedented 11th day…
https://m.nasdaq.com/article/update-10-us-crude-ends-lower-for-record-11th-consecutive-session-20181112-00859
“Iron ore spot markets fell across the board on Monday, weighed down by continue weakness in Chinese steel prices. Concerns about Chinese demand over winter, as well as a major producer announcing price cuts for December, were cited as catalysts behind the weakness in steel markets.”
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-prices-china-steel-demand-hebei-2018-11
The falling price problem, again. I see oil is down a little more this morning. $58.60 for WTI.
If you can read Spanish, or those ‘translation’ thingies work, I highly recommend an article -in fact all the articles -on the ‘Oilcrash’ blogspot: http://www.crashoil.blogspot.com
In Spanish, at least, they are very well written and reasoned.
‘Esperando El Golpe’ ‘Awaiting the Blow/Shock ‘) has a very good summary of the various forms that predictions of economic crisis and disaster take, and how seriously we should take them……
Dashes of Hopium, but mostly realistic, and pessimistic.
I can sort of leer español (I lived there a while).
But it the effort is trying.
“October turned into ‘Shocktober’ as waves of panic roiled global markets and torched most, if not all, of this year’s gains.
“While the fears have abated in the past fortnight, they haven’t entirely disappeared. Nor should they.
“For while the old adage that bull markets are built on a wall of worry is usually trotted out to placate the fearful and soothe rattled nerves, tensions within the global financial system are building, potentially grinding towards a breaking point…”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-12/why-debt-will-be-the-cause-of-the-next-stock-market-jolt/10486554
“With interest rates in the US rising, this arbitrage has started to unravel. As interest rates rise, financial investors will withdraw the money they invested in stock and debt markets around the world. This will lead to falling markets and rising interest rates… With the US Fed raising rates and withdrawing printed money, low rates in the US and the Western world, which led to a flood of money into India, are on their way out.”
https://www.livemint.com/Money/kBD0j6huJhfQvlK91QnBzO/How-higher-US-interest-rates-hurt-the-Indian-economy.html
PPTs standing by if it gets too serious…
“South Korea’s factory utilization rate has fallen to the lowest level since the Asian financial crisis fueling concerns that the economy is showing signs of slowing down, observers said Sunday. The number is a key barometer of manufacturing output and directly impacts the economic health of countries that depend heavily on the production of goods to generate growth, such as South Korea.”
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20181111000039
“A study on Japanese companies with a history of 100 or more years found that 461 establishments either went bankrupt or discontinued their business in fiscal 2017, a 2.2% increase over the previous year.
“This number is the largest on record since data was first compiled in fiscal 2000, exceeding the 430 longstanding companies that closed their doors in fiscal 2008, the year of the global financial crisis.”
https://www.nippon.com/en/features/h00326/
That still doesn’t sound like a huge number, given the aging population.
“”China trade tensions will continue and possibly worsen,” said Isaac Boltansky, a policy analyst at research and trading firm Compass Point.
“”We believe the electoral split-decision will result in President Trump’s trade rhetoric — especially with China — becoming more bellicose in the weeks ahead.””
http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-china-trade-war-tariff-fight-worse-after-midterm-elections-2018-11?r=US&IR=T
“In the span of just 11 months, China went from having no distressed dollar-denominated corporate bonds to having more than any other emerging market. The world’s second-biggest economy has 15 bonds whose option-adjusted spreads over US Treasuries were above 1,000 basis points as of November 6, according to a Bloomberg Barclays index. That’s more than all the other nations on the gauge, combined.”
https://www2.gulf-times.com/story/612473/China-has-more-distressed-corporate-debt-than-all-other-emerging-markets
“Italy’s finance minister is working on limited adjustments to the populist government’s 2019 budget…
“With Italy’s reply [to Brussels] due next week, Tria and his staff are assessing economic growth targets, emergency spending needs after devastating storms, the weight of interest payments on debt and measures to guarantee that there will be no breach of the 2.4% target…”
https://www.gulf-times.com/story/612574/Italy-considers-only-tweaks-to-budget-ahead-of-EU-
“After Condotte and Astaldi , another Italian big construction player raises the white flag. The Cooperative Muratori and Cementisti Romagnola (CMC Ravenna), long since in financial difficulties, has officially declared that it will not be able to meet the payment obligations, on November 15th, of the interest accrued of the 325 million euro bond loan with coupon 6% and maturity 2023 issued last year… As a result, CMC Ravenna will default also on the interest payments.”
https://www.investireoggi.it/obbligazioni/cmc-ravenna-verso-il-default-non-paghera-interessi-sui-bond/
Good catch Harry. I suspect we will be seeing much more of this in the days ahead. Might still be a good thing to be first to the exit while there is still some sembalnce of order.
“Britain’s armed forces are making contingency plans for how they could support the country if Britain leaves the European Union without a deal, senior British defence officials said on Sunday.
“Asked what role the armed forces could play if there was a ‘no deal’ Brexit, British defence minister Tobias Ellwood said: “The armed forces stand ready to support Britain on a practical basis”
““There are contingency plans being made, there are discussions being held behind the scenes as to what support our armed forces will do,” Ellwood said on the ‘Ridge on Sunday’ television programme.
““With the transition from Brexit, if there is a requirement to provide assistance we’re looking right across the full spectrum of requirements to make sure that we are prepared.””
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-army/britains-armed-forces-making-contingency-plans-for-no-deal-brexit-defence-officials-idUKKCN1NG0CR
“A spokesperson for the Department for Exiting the European Union is unequivocal people shouldn’t be concerned, saying that the government is preparing for all eventualities but had no plans to stockpile food and people should not do so either.
“”The UK has a strong level of food security built upon a diverse range of sources including strong domestic production and imports from third countries. This will continue to be the case whether we leave the EU with or without a deal.””
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46111085
“Theresa May’s Brexit plan is under siege from across the Tory party as she attempts to overcome the final sticking points with Brussels in time to push it through a critical meeting of her cabinet ministers on Tuesday.
“As time runs out, leading Brexiters have told the prime minister they remain deeply opposed to her version of an exit mechanism that would prevent the UK unilaterally quitting a temporary customs arrangement if Brexit talks collapse.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/11/hard-brexit-tories-and-dup-told-to-think-twice-before-rejecting-deal
“Research by business advisers BDO LLP indicated a “concerning turnaround” in the fortunes of the UK manufacturing sector.
“Manufacturers are at the sharp end of a general slowdown in global trade, as well as a Brexit-induced reluctance from European firms to source components from the UK, the report said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/12/survey-of-british-manufacturing-shows-slump-in-confidence
Maybe we could have fun trying to invent positive headlines for the UK? Or would that go too deep into the realm of fantasy?
I was amused by the comment of the Krupp-Thyssen head in the UK, commenting on the great Brexit screw-up, that he is ‘alright’, because he ‘can retire to Spain ‘ when it all implodes.
A right-thinking man, clearly, in his choice of destination, but not encouraging for most Brits!
And Boris Johnson’s asinine comment ‘F….k business!’ just puts the cherry on the cake of British political ineptitude and delusion.
Prime Minister Says Don’t Worry, Brexit Won’t Be As Bad As Venezuela…
Too bad….. I was looking forward to watching twitter feeds of youths stabbing cows and pigs….
Monty Python Reveals Brexit Was Just A New Skit…
Boris Johnson Says Don’t Worry About Brexit, We’re All Dead In 100 Years Anyway…
He really meant 1 year… but for the sake of global sanity … said 100
Tim Groves Rushes Back To UK To Solve Brexit Dilemma…
Cambridge Economists Announce New 10 Year Grant To Study Brexit…
Elon Musk, Ex-Tesla, Hired By UK To Manage Brexit…
He’ll offer the use of his submarine…. and a battery that can hold enough power to keep the UK plugged in for 3 seconds (at a cost of 100 billion dollars)
Musk Hires Fast Eddy To Help Save The UK…
Tim Groves declines to get involved in Brexit dilemma, expresses confidence that Johnson & Johnson & Johnson can cope with the minutiae, and instead calls for an independent Rutland.
https://youtu.be/ooRCMxUb30E
Keep England’s Smallest County Rutty!
Ouch!
Funny how ‘slowdown’ elicits terror in some …. but in some it is a sign that we are heading in the right direction … killing capitalism…. creating a sustainable world.
A ‘sustainable world’ with: UBI, i-phones, long vacations, pensions, free medical care, good ‘work-life balance’, pots of gold at the end of the rainbow and cheap clothes from Asia…..
https://nataliaantonova.files.wordpress.com/2013/12/cannot-handle-the-hysterical-laughter.gif
Or the mundane ‘meh’ as in the inevitability in this information-energy process.
“Tadaa, it’s…. gone..”
https://youtu.be/5K3E5tLoado
For centuries man has tried to create a sustainable world and they always f789 it up due to their greed and power.
It is not possible to create a sustainable world if we are going to make use of fire…. so we’ve f789ed nothing up….
Well I suppose learning how to harness fire was a f789 up … but how do you force a human not to learn …
Oh, I’ll just empty my cupboards then. Silly me.
It’s official: government assurances have been given, so……..stockpile like Hell!
Xabier, my sentiments exactly! This government couldn’t organise itself out of a wet paper bag.
It’s rather embarrassing when one realises that people like Boris Johnson think they are great statesmen.
I’ve always thought that those whose inordinate ambitions first show in debates at the Oxford or Cambridge Union should be ‘sectioned’, for the good of society……
One of the debating stars in my day ended up as a hack journalist, they often fizzle out, but the rise of Boris has been astonishing and deplorable.
Hi Gail,
Love your work. I’m a Geographer by training with an emphasis on Regional Planning and Development Theory. For the past thirty plus years I have been watching world energy, income disparities and population growth. At first I was more focused mostly on the social inequities and the political ideologies at play. I watched the Soviet Union disintegrate and the US Petro Dollar fiat currency evolve. I deeply understand the first Green Revolution of industrial food production via the use of petro chemicals and, even more so, I deeply understand the reality of the new Green Revolution of renewable energy; in fact, I have spent the last 16 working years in the solar industry and I am now develop large scale commercial and industrial projects, Community Solar farms, and NYS energy regulatory policy. I also understand Peak Oil and the difference between an economically exploitable “reserve” and an uneconomic “resource”.
My most recent interests have included: “Global Warming” as economic shifter policy, not due to CO2 but very real in terms of extreme climate change and having profound energy policy implications; silver and gold commodity manipulation and silver’s role as a vital strategic resource; societal collapse theory and the pending economic reset.
I am also trained as a Cultural Anthropologist and I I participate in one of the world’s most successful temporary “gift economies”, Burning Man.
Your views are very interesting and unique, and I am grateful to have found you. I have spent much of today (Sunday Nov 11) reading select articles that you wrote over over the past several years. I would love to have a phone conversation with you sometime to exchange views. My name is Dennis Phayre and my email address is dlp123g@gmail.com.
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/dennis-phayre/1b/1a5/b99/
Please let me know if you would like to talk one day. I promise it will be fun and respectful.
Gratefully,
Dennis
hey, Dennis…
just curious…
there have been recent debates here about when the global economic system will suffer its inevitable (mathematically certain) collapse…
what’s your guess?
And i’m sure Gail’s response will be, “many things are possible depending on how high you can blow up the debt bubble”.
It’s when this massive debt bubble pops, that will be the problem. Hell, this debt bubble gave us Shale Oil !
You are right. Without the ultra low interest rates, and investors willing to believe that prices could only rise higher, there was no possibility of this investment by companies. Even with this benefit, cash flows have been very much negative.
thanks for those educated guesses it looks like we will have between 3years to 12years left before “lights out” for our way of life. I say “way of life” because i believe humanity will carry on somehow ?
yes, small existing tribes and newly formed ones will probably survive in brutal conditions…
no chance that I will be a part…
good for me!
then sooner or later will come human extinction…
a good thing… an end to all human suffering…
the good thing is there is a cult who are running the financial system and do not understand whats really going on so expect the unexpected there will be alot of money printing which will see huge gains in precious metals
no no…
“they” fully understand the system…
and that is why “they” are doing everything they can to keep it running…
so no “reset” fooolishnesss in their thinking….
much too risky… “they” benefit greatly right now…
keep the BAU ball rolling…
“they” only need it to continue for the rest of their lives…
I doubt if many of them care if it crashes later…
“they” know it is inevitable that it will anyway…
Wether we end up having inflation from more money printing or deflation due to rising defaults, it can’t be bad to hold an asset with no counterparty risk ? At least as part of the portfolio.
Reset or no reset i would not be surprised if “they” control most of the gold & silver anyway. If “they” do, a “reset” will be sold to the general public as a system modification for stability’s sake, whilst enriching “them” even more ?
canned food has no counterparty risk… 😉
I mean, everyone with a portfolio is taking a risk with its contents…
ever consider this:
if you have paper claims for gold and/or silver in your portfolio, you don’t actually own any gold and/or silver…
“they” probably own bars of gold and silver…
Winners and loosers?
Wind farm ‘predator’ effect hits ecosystems: study by Indian Institute of Science
An international team of scientists studied the effects of wind turbine use in the Western Ghats, a UNESCO-listed range of mountains and forest spanning India’s west coast region and a global “hotspot” of biodiversity.
They found that predatory raptor birds were four times rarer in areas of plateau where wind turbines were present, a disruption that cascaded down the food chain and radically altered the density and behaviour of the birds’ prey.
In particular, the team observed an explosion in the raptors’ favourite meal, fan-throated lizards, in areas dominated by the turbines.
Furthermore, they saw significant changes in lizard behaviour and appearance, living as they were in an essentially predator-free environment.
https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/renewable/wind-farm-predator-effect-hits-ecosystems-study-by-indian-institute-of-science/66519289
I ran across these studies:
http://notrickszone.com/2018/10/24/heart-jamming-wind-turbines-new-medical-research-confirms-infrasound-negatively-impacts-heart-health/
This is a different study in India. Wind farms are the ‘new apex predators’: Blades kill off 75% of buzzards, hawks and kites that live nearby, study shows
There is one possible war of consequence in our future, and that is an American first strike on Russia. Why? Because it is logical, as it kills three birds with one stone.
1) The Pentagon completes it 70 year quest for the Holy Grail, the Holy Grail being the final, glorious, total defeat of the Soviet Union/Russia.
2) Nuclear winter. If you get it right, you solve both the global warming and overpopulation dilemmas. If you get it a little bit wrong, oh well. Either billions die for the greater good, or all things die, either way, you took your last best shot.
3) Russian oil becomes American oil -or Exxon’s oil, however you want to look at.
the Dr. Strangelove scenario. let’s hope the US military-industrial complex does not play it and gives up on that strategy, going instead quietly into that dark night. odds?
If I was Putin I would think deeply about whether I should “use em or lose em”..
only in your bad fiction novel
Stalin’s pride and joy, the Eastern European buffer zone, gained at the cost of millions of Soviet lives, is now completely in American hands. Every single East Bloc country is now a member of NATO. That is, without question, the most mind blowing geopolitical event in my lifetime. The rise of China? Not even close.
“Every single East Bloc country is now a member of NATO.”
Yet Russia retains the box seat, and is is only growing more powerful and secure there. You only had to look at the fawning respect granted to Putin at the Remembrance Day ceremony, who like a badass came late. The same day, having been frustrated by continual Ukrainian and Western failure to implement the Minsk 2 Accords, Russia finally permitted the Donbass Republics to hold twice-postponed elections, and not a thing could be done about it. Not a thing.
Now, none of these Eastern fair weather allies of the U.S. would last very long in a shooting match between NATO and Russia. Even NATO admits it. Besides, Russia retains the unsinkable aircraft carrier that is Crimea, has a lock on the Black Sea, and maintains nuclear submarines off the coasts of San Francisco and New York. So tell me, what advantage does the U.S. hold against Russia that isn’t temporary, or actually non-existent, except in some overworked neocons wet dream?
“There is one possible war of consequence in our future, and that is an American first strike on Russia. Why? Because it is logical…”
it is far from logical…
TPTB benefit greatly from the current system…
which is why we keep rehashing here on OFW how “they” are trying everything they can to keep “the system” (BAU) running…
a “logical” nucular first strike is nonnsense…
This is exactly right. Besides Putin, echoing the thoughts of 160 million fellow Russian citizens said just the other day that in the event of a nuclear holocaust, ( begun as a U.S. first strike, since Russia has long repudiated this as a strategy), they’ll go to heaven as martyrs; whereas their attackers would die as sinners.
https://cdni.rt.com/files/2018.10/article/5bc89be6dda4c83a4a8b45b5.jpg
Link
Apart from those who are fortunate enough to experience the Rapture, American citizens go to purgatory, which I imagine will resemble waiting in line for an inordinate amount of time to vote at a polling station.
http://gph.is/28Z9jwC
Throw a few lit ciggies into the bush while waiting?
On the general question of “Why we get bad diagnoses for the world’s energy-economy problems” I’ve found only strong reinforcement for what I discovered forty years ago, and found Keynes (chapter 16) also said would cause terminal debilitating systemic effects for capitalism.
We seem to live in a real world (defined by nature not us) and the financial system makes demands on it as if we lived in only a conceptual world (defined by whoever dominates). So, the economy is FAILING DUE TO ITS SUCCESS, success in doing something highly unnatural.
I first wrote about it in the 70s, then in varied ways in the 80s, 90s, 00s and 10s (www.synapse9.com/jlhpub.htm). What’s so unnatural about finance is that it demands unlimited positive feedback of financial returns from people and the earth, AND without having that disrupt the system you are using to do it with.
If you study growth in nature what you find is that every new system begins with a kind of compound growth, some way of organizing small things to multiplying bigger ones, and it ALWAYS changes the system doing it. The rule is, “in nature growth always has an outcome”, generally either “longevity”, sudden “catastrophe” or terminal “exhaustion”. Look around at what you know about any kind of system in nature, locate its dynamic process of initial development, and ask what becomes of it! That same invariable result applies to human systems as part of the natural order.
We do still have a chance at longevity, and making earth a good home for endless innovation, but only by refining the systems we built to work within natural limits. What we’re doing, however, is clearly heading for the second or third choice, such as by changing our world so fast it disrupts essential environments, social cultures and learning systems. We’re still trying with all our might to limitlessly perpetuate the rapid compound acceleration of converting the natural and cultural resources into paper credits for the wealthy. To save the earth they should strategically spend their credits our system’s survival.
Impoverishing the earth by making it wealthy is surely both ironic and moreover very confusing. It seems to come from our most highly productive knowledge silos, that TREAT THE WORLD AS THEIR THEORY. Of course that error is now driving us crazy, and it may really be the death of us!
If you look at the past 200 years of industrialism, its amounted to basically a giant conglomeration of experiments in new products (including asbestos in the house, various deadly toxic chemicals), and crazy economic ideas that capitalist-fearing governments completely acquiesce to. Sometimes it’s successful and other times it’s disastrous to the point of wide-scale death. The successes are then championed while the failures are just ignored or dismissed with academic bullshit. The profiteers almost always get away unscathed, also.
Maybe that’s the best that humans can muster in complex society, but if you look from afar, I guess it would appear to be collective insanity.
Forgot, you can throw Communism in the same boat
“We’re still trying with all our might to limitlessly perpetuate the rapid compound acceleration of converting the natural and cultural resources into paper credits for the wealthy.”
That’s very well put.
“We do still have a chance at longevity, and making earth a good home for endless innovation, but only by refining the systems we built to work within natural limits.”
My opinion is an attempt at longevity is occurring by transitioning to renewables, at least for energy, but of course many other parts of the overall system will be need to altered such as agriculture, then there is over-population, but anyway, at least attempts are being made in that direction.
If you haven’t posted here before you should be aware there is a certain poster on here that polices the website to fit his own viewpoint. So don’t take it personally if he goes after you for your idea of possible longevity. Best to you this Sunday.
Thanks, You say “an attempt at longevity is occurring by transitioning to renewables.” Yes but oddly it’s to replace fossil fuels with ever multiplying use of renewables,…actually aimed at *extending* not *replacing* the growth economy that is the source of the problem. It’s such simple logic, and very widely displayed in how natural growth systems achieve longevity by maturing, you’d think the people arguing for alternatives would catch on. There’s something disturbing about it is what one can say, as well as that the best alternative people are widely talking about may move us a head a step, but will also then get into the same problem the current growth system is in. I wish my efforts were gaining more traction.
What exactly are you trying to say here?
” I wish my efforts were gaining more traction.”
your efforts are futile… maybe give up?
the current system has created much prosperity…
for YOU and many others…
have you ever heard that humans discount the future?
almost no one would be willing to give up their current prosperity on the feeble hopes that the system could be made to have “longevity”…
here’s what has given us centuries of “longevity”:
burning FF and releasing the surplus energy…
when the already diminishing surplus energy exhausts itself, that will be the end of your “longevity”…
good luck on your “efforts”…
you are fighting a losing battle against the diminishing returns of FF extraction…
“There’s something disturbing about it is what one can say, as well as that the best alternative people are widely talking about may move us a head a step, but will also then get into the same problem the current growth system is in.”
I don’t see where the “ahead a step” applies. You might be contradicting yourself as well, since you seem to have previously explained why renewable couldn’t logically have a beneficial effect on the fallacy of growth, but could only make matters worse.
By the way, the clear evidence that whatever we say **we are using renewables to extend the life of non-renewables** is in the UN and global government policies for making endless compound growth sustainable, goal #8 in the SDGs. It may not be intentional to act in such a contradictory way, of course, but it certainly is very persistent. While some acknowledge that’s effectively what’s happening they also won’t discuss the options for doing something else, I come to having made strenuous efforts for several years. The best of the best still seem unable or unwilling to discuss alternatives to the cultural imperative for limitless growth, a real sacred cow. One good piece of mine, on the evidence that we need to, is called Evidence of Decoupling Still Zero.
http://synapse9.com/signals/2018/06/18/evidence-decoupling-still-zero/
“The best of the best still seem unable or unwilling to discuss alternatives to the cultural imperative for limitless growth, a real sacred cow.”
that’s because they know better. remember you are posting on OFW commentary.
Is limitless growth really “a cultural imperative” or is it “an economic imperative” required in order to keep the dividends, pensions, life insurance payouts and social security payments flowing?
OK, lets abandon growth and see what happens. It will doubtless have an impact on the culture when the economic system collapses and the have nots and can’t eats turn into angry mobs obsessed with venting their frustrations on anyone who is unfortunate enough to find themselves in their path.
Cut the food supply for a week or so and the angry mob would end in a hurry.
No one revolts on an empty stomach.
MOre on.
She’s schizotypical. A lot of her posts are rambling. Wouldn’t be surprised if she’s on some sort of medication.
Good luck….
I would recommend upping the dose of Fentanyl… very effective in ending the rambing nonsense
I could recommend her a new doctor. Michael Jackson’s ex doctor who prescribed Propofol.
I’ll second that!
Is a Henshaw more or less than a Henway. Mine were running 1.325 Kg dressed this year.
The only truly rich people I know are self-made in the financial sector – I’ve no idea what the people at the very top of the tree – inherited vast fortunes, etc, think like as I’ve never met them – but the people I know feel that those ‘paper credits’, as you so well put, it are full of the promise of possibility (of personal self-indulgence, safety, security for their children) and in a sense very real.
How consoling is the sight of all those zeros in one’s Zurich account.
One did say to me once, when I mentioned our dying Earth ‘Pollution is just the price we pay for modernity’.
Poisoning themselves as well as everyone else, complacently……
The paper credits are a kind of god, and gods are worshiped until they are shown to be false, or to have lost their power. But by then, disaster is upon you.
The magicians of Tibet were busy casting spells right up until the invading Chinese shot them or put them in prison.
I have taken up worshipping magic crystals.
Have you tried the meth flavored ones?
Jessie, I hate to disagree with you but we have long lost any chance of “longevity”
The rot in the system is now so pervasive we stand zero chance of making the earth a good home. The black swans are already circling and if I were to guess I’d say the financial swan is what will terminate us.
yes, Brian, you are correct…
“We do still have a chance at longevity, and making earth a good home for endless innovation, but only by refining the systems we built to work within natural limits.”
Jessie, if you are trying to make this happen, I have some advice…
give up…
the prosperity in the world is the direct result of burning FF and releasing its “energy slaves” for our benefit…
the vast majority of persons will not give up this prosperity voluntarily…
we will use as much energy as we can…
for as long as we can…
until the already diminishing surplus energy reaches a point where prosperity turns into worldwide poverty…
understanding the reality of surplus energy is the key…
do you have the key?
I am afraid that the laws of physics limit the outcomes that are available for the world economy. Collapse of human economies seems to occur when growth in energy consumption per capita falls to zero. That is, the red tops in this chart disappear.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/50-look-at-what-happens-in-energy-troughs.png
People who are planning on cutting energy consumption per capita have never looked at the physics of the situation (energy is needed for leveraging human labor; not having rising energy consumption per capita does not allow sufficient leveraging of human labor). They have not looked at a historical record of nearly 200 years either.
Wind and solar cannot possibly be scaled up to the level require, for many, many reasons. For wind, one of the problems is too huge a “footprint.” I ran across an academic article this morning called Observation-based solar and wind power capacity factors and power densities. A person can read it for free. It is based on US data only. It concludes that land area requirements for wind installations are a lot higher than most modelers have estimated, including Jacobson and Delucchi and the US Department of Energy. The paper makes the following observation:
The thing is…
Most people are just plain stuuupid … they suffer from the Dunce Krueger Effect as well … they get this mind fantasy … tralalala let’s eliminate growth and crash our energy consumption and we’ll live happily ever after… and once that demon seed is planted… no matter how many graphs and how much logic you throw at them….. they will NOT get it….
They do not want the truth — they cannot handle the truth — therefore they refuse to understand, acknowledge or even consider the truth.
The desperately want stories that ensure that their lives continue… and those of their offspring…
Oh, you are sorely mistaken. They think very little beyond the process of producing and tending offspring. In their minds all the self evident luxuries of BAU will be here forever.
It does not exist in their minds that it is a false utopia of enormous proportions that is spoiling and brainwashing away our very understanding from the grim reality of the existence without fossil fuels.
It is simply not a part of the thought process. The awakening from fake utopia will be brutal.
hey fast eddy you got another climate change denier
but there is problem that he believe he was at moon on 1972
‘https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrison_Schmitt
so fast eddy which is real thing climate change or moon landings ?
This is shaping up to be EPIC!
Sydney clearances head toward historic low as credit bites
https://www.afr.com/content/dam/images/h/1/7/j/6/o/image.related.afrArticleLead.620×350.h17r6t.png/1541915067182.jpg
“This is getting almost unprecedented. It’s certainly unprecedented in the last 20 years”, Louis Christopher of SQM Research.
“I just cannot see any trigger which is going to create a bottom in the market in Sydney and Melbourne right now.”
“All I can see are factors out there which could make this even worse.”
Anatomy of the Housing Downturn in Vancouver, Canada
In 2018, “each month has brought weaker than normal sales, rising inventory, and continued downward pressure on prices” in Vancouver, British Columbia, writes Steve Saretsky, a Vancouver Realtor and publisher of real-estate blog, Vancity Condo Guide. The market faces another headwind: “With the Bank of Canada determined to reach a neutral rate of interest of between 2.5-3.5%, borrowing power continues to erode.”
The single-family price spike unwinds.
The hardest hit segment are single-family houses (“detached houses”). Sales volume in the city of Vancouver has dropped to 27-year lows for most months of the year. In October, sales plunged 32% year-over-year to 146 houses, the third worst October on record. The plunge in sales was first triggered by the imposition of a tax in August 2016 on nonresident foreign buyers – mostly investors living in China. This chart from The Saretsky Report shows sales volume in every October going back to 1991 (click to enlarge):
https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/11/housing-downturn-in-vancouver-bc-canada-detached-single-family-condo-townhouse/
My impression is that Australia is so close to China that China’s affairs make a huge difference. Australia has been able to have a huge economic boom, thanks to China’s demand for mineral imports, Chinese travelers, and people from China wanting to move Australia. With China’s economy cooling, Australia gets dragged down as well. Australia’s home prices, especially in areas of interest to foreigners, have been inflated.
Australian readers feel free to correct me.
Bubbles don’t need extraneous events to trigger their collapse though. The fact that China is slowing, notwithstanding. Events leading to the collapse of the Australian economy have been building since the 1980’s, well before China began its explosive growth phase. Also, China has it’s own endogenous debt hole to eventually deal with, which has nothing to do with Australia. For everyone, everywhere, it will all end, badly.
Elon Musk is forced to step down and is replaced by a woman because of his Tweet about Telsa going private…among other things.
No accusation of sexual harassment was necessary.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/11/08/tesla-names-new-chairman-replace-elon-musk/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.fc112d2494ed
Hmm .. advert on TV…Nissan offering no deposit for 6 months and 1.9% finance…too good to be …a good sign?
That’s lower than any mortgage rate… on a depreciating asset…
Sounds very desperate.
Distractions are so important at this stage of the decline; we have just been commenorating the 11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th Month etc for ‘The Great War’. Its all about hearing of the experiences of the returned servicemen/women.
Not a word of what led to this slaughter of the serfs. That would be too revealing. Similarly we hear all about the failure of the personalities on the political stage; never a word about the failure of the systems/assumptions below.
distractions are a well known psychological component for dealing with the knowledge of our imminent death… (some might say the nothingness of eternal death)…
it will be no surprise if persons turn to more distractions as the knowledge grows and spreads about the imminent Creeping Collapse…
“the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does”
I missed the whole nationalism thing—and the patriot thing was never part of my reality, as the State was always in my face.
Too fancy, how about this:
‘The nationalist is a mental nut job ‘.
Nationalism is often Romantic patriotism gone mad.
How about the nationalist is someone who has read OFW and knows the nation is in overshoot and wants to limit the additional overshoot.
Oh, but I’d call that person a…..patriot. 🙂
My patriotism is largely of the nostalgic variety. I love the England brought to life by the likes of Shakespeare, Austin, Conan Doyle, Agatha Christie and Iris Murdoch. Also, I love the England I saw, heard, smelt, tasted and touched as a child and now so vividly. But it’s all as far removed from my present reality as Avalon. I could never “go home” because the England I was at home in no longer exists and perhaps never did.
Ah, the beauty of fossil fuels. It makes the life of children and youth, offspring from the common man, a nostalgia trip down memory lane instead of unwelcome repressed memories of relentless drudgery.
It was merely a dream, a false utopia for the proles. For a little while.
Russian news sites are claiming an American civil war will erupt during the 2020 presidential election
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-election-american-civil-war-2018-11?fbclid=IwAR0m5TtkOD_pVFN3xui0_wks5w4gllC05R6iHaisj18PD-o-NQ4a2kQlTas
I wouldn’t doubt it. You already have crazed individuals confronting Senators at restaurants, Tucker Carlson at his home and confronting each other. But the big winners in all of this are the politicians and globalists because when anarchy arises they just use it to seize more power.
Chris Martenson did a piece on this recently about the experiment where you shock two rats in a cage. They can’t tell where it’s coming from so they think the other one is doing it to them, so they begin to attack each other. That is precisely what the politicians are doing to the more..ons who are too busy watching Dancing With The Stars and Monday Night Football.
What’s that saying? “Divide and Conquer”.
+++++
sure, they can say whatever they want to say…
here, they are just poking us with a stick…
there is almost zero chance of a civil war here in 2020…
perhaps many riots and widespread viollence, but “civil war” is outrageous hyperbole…
do you automatically believe everything coming out of Russia?
Uncivil war is more likely. Once the number of people who can no longer afford the American Dream reaches a critical mass, it’s only a matter of time.
https://i.redd.it/unvroyte6lx11.jpg
let’s unpack the meaning of this cartoon:
so millennials and boomers agree that “capitalism ruined the economy”…
by “the economy”, these western people are surely meaning their western economy…
which has grown massively as a capitalistic economy…
hmmmm…
so “capitalism ruined our capitalistic economy”…
huh?
Baby Doomer is as entitled as they come…he still accepts the belief that our economic problems are due to the greed of the 1%.
I think you have swallowed too much CEO boot polish..
I think your liberal teachers in school have successfully converted you to Communism.
It keeps you from asking questions about the quality of the education you received while they took your money.
Both capitalism and communism promote industrialisation and productivism. Lenin said that “The Soviets plus electrical power equal communism!”. But, productivism eventually kills itself – it self-destructs.
So, no dictatorship of the proletariat?
Lenin must not of read Marx?
Just let it go, will ya’?
A Worldwide Debt Default Is A Real Possibility
Notably, the combined debt of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and China has increased more than ten times as much as their combined GDP [growth] over the past year.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2018/11/07/a-worldwide-debt-default-is-a-real-possibility/?fbclid=IwAR0Uxfg3HthpCeGR4oiLGUbB37Qzw_SPhq1XS5wxyaENecgsGbPw6oNatQ8#5fe4df5e53aa
I think a worldwide debt default is just about guaranteed…
definitely by 2030…
hyperinflation could “help” to solve these debt problems…
but either way, economic meltdown is creeping closer…
It’s a mathematical certainty. What’s held off the inevitable is all the central banks creating money out of thin air.
gotta love exponential growth. I’m supposed to retire in 2030. Guess I’m outa luck.
Shhhhh, don’t tell my wife.
As David Stockman and others have said on many occasions, China is a Powder Keg waiting to ignite.
“The “Nightmare Scenario” For Beijing: 50 Million Chinese Apartments Are Empty”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-10/nightmare-scenario-beijing-50-million-chinese-apartments-are-empty
In fact David Stockman said China will one day become Japan !
and Japan will one day become Venezuela !
What’s this all about?
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/7789650_bd3a38e2-7614-11e8-9d1a-96cec5ced457-1_1000x625.jpg
https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/ob_74c979_dowzus2wsaaillu.jpg
http://www.unz.com/article/the-incredible-shrinking-president-2/
And here’s Macron with his granny…. uh…. wife?
https://heavyeditorial.files.wordpress.com/2017/04/gettyimages-643899798.jpg
http://www.kimdutoit.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/macron-2.jpg
Meanwhile Justin …. is crying …
http://www.canadiantimes.ca/ct2/images/Justin_Trudeau_crying044.jpg
And where is Don in all this???
http://forums.pelicanparts.com/uploads25/160523_trump_social_card_3_11476104781.png
So now you will be saying the “be ak no ses” vampirise the women,
Theatricality, letting their hair down. Did you never go to a Bowie concert, for instance?
so Trump has a 30% approval rating?
oh, wait, that’s Macron’s number…
Trump has gravitas … compared to macaroni and troodough
You spelled Turdough
wot a cuc.k
I am struggling to decide which is the bigger tosser… Macron and Trudea
How can it be possible that people voted for either of them?
Macron is celebrating with the Republic’s citizens.
Second comment nails it (Thordoom):
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-10/macrons-popularity-plummets-frances-interior-minister-predicts-civil-war#comment_stream
Something is just not right … with a man wedding a women 25 years his senior….
A 40 year old man … and a 65 year old woman…. bizarre indeed….
With the ageing populations, such partnerships are not strange anymore: there are fewer and fewer choices in your age group.
In several of the large populous countries such as the U.S. India, and China there are not enough women of child bearing age for young men looking for them.
What a disapproving old grandma you are. If you’re that easily shocked, you’ll never survive what comes after the collapse.
I’m more with this guy
https://www.gympietimes.com.au/news/dutch-man-starts-legal-battle-reverse-his-age/3571491/
Of course I won’t survive… nobody will.
And I am not approving or disapproving… I am just wondering why…. what is wrong with him?
Most men who end up with women significantly older than them are not very attractive to begin with. C’mon, Fast. Does this guy look like he was ever a lady killer?
Ya… but anything is better than that…. maybe it’s some sort of fetish?
It is called a beard
Come on Eddy, have you no sense of the romantic? They are French, after all, and the age difference between the Macrons is only one year larger than the one between the Trumps, and two years smaller than that between Mandela and his third wife. who was 27 years younger than he was.
Macron was lucky enough to have married his first schoolboy crush. And it’s worked out well for them. I’m almost envious.
I can see how a younger woman would go for an older man…. particularly if he is very wealthy…
I can also see how a younger man would be willing to be a toy boy for an old rich biddy….
But Macron does not need to be cared for… he’s got plenty of cash….
I had a mate who’s sister hooked up with a guy 20 years younger… they were together for some years… then she withered as she hit late 50’s…. he woke up one morning and said f789 this…. hooked up with a 35 year old and sprouted a kid within a year….
The former partner died a few years later of cancer….
He split with the younger woman not long after the kid popped out.
They were both French.
Apparently drug dealers
Man Who Posed Shirtless with President Macron Arrested for Drug Dealing
Really? He doesn’t look like a drug dealer… I am so surprised….
High quality imported workers in the entertainment industry -the future of Europe. France takes the cultural lead once again.
Need to discuss that over a glass of cabernet and some good cheese.
The French do know how to live—-
Terrorism?
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/11/09/california-wildfires-wall-fire-ravages-golden-state/1939919002/
Head on over to Peak Oil News maybe learn something. kiddo
Plantagenet wrote:
Much of California is going to go up, either now or in coming years.
Take a drive from Kings Canyon National Park up to Yosemite and then on up the Sierra Nevada. There are HUGE stands dead trees…..killed by heat and drought. Its like tinder. Same thing in the coast range.
These forests are no longer in equilibrium with the current hotter climate. We’re at the beginning of a transition to a different ecosystem that will be more in equilibrium with Californias hotter and drier climate. The forests in central and Northern California are going to burn off and be replaced by grasslands and dry rocky desert, like those seen today in southernmost California and Baja California.
Cheers!
Ecosystems are not permanent. That is something we should be aware of. They are like economies.
Especially when a species intentional transforms carbon that is in a solid/liquid form (coal/oil) converting to gas molecules into the atmosphere, this trapping heat.
Rather siimple Physics, is it not? Why is that so difficult to accept?
simple, really…
atmos pheric C O 2 was a traace gaas of 3 parts per 9,997 “other”…
now it’s a traace gaas of 4 parts per 9,996 “other”…
as some replies have mentioned, a 33% increase in some aspects of reality can be huge…
but not in this case…
simple…
really…
oh, but I should show the math…
here’s the 100 parts per million increase:
= a 1 in 10,000 increase which is +0.0001 or +0.01%…
OMG!
If you ingest certain poisons at 3 parts per 10 million of weight, you die. So yes, in some systems a little makes a big difference. Your argument is stupid.
“but not in this case…”
Ever heard of differential functions? Add 1 ppm arsenic to your water supply everyday. It’ll help with your prostate cancer!
My take, if I’m allowed to have one, is that if we are talking simple physics, then we should acknowledge at the outset that the general rule is “the bigger the push, the bigger the shove”, and not something like chemistry or biology or cooking, where a little bit of this reagent or that nutrient or such and such a poison or a pinch of some vital ingredient can have a profound affect.
Thinking in terms of simple physics, it should difficult for anyone to accept that such a relatively small change in the concentrations of gas molecules could trap a significant amount of heat, especially when the atmosphere has such an efficient system of passive cooling in the shape of outgoing longwave radiation, which increases in step with any temperature rise.
To make it simple enough for a smart 10 year old child to comprehend, let’s do a thought experiment. Two cups of very hot coffee at 100 degrees C. One is in a very hot room in Death Valley in summer where the temperature is 50 degrees C. The other is in a very cold room in Antarctica in winter where the temperature is -50 degrees C. Which cup of coffee is going to cool faster?
If you said the one in the room in Death Valley, you’d be right. Why?
Because the rate of cooling depends on the temperature difference between the object radiating and surroundings it is radiating into.
In the case of the Earth, the planet is radiating into space, which for all practical purposes is a limitless energy sink at a temperature not far above absolute zero. Lets call it -270 degrees C for the purposes of our thought experiment. The higher the Earth’s temperature, the faster, the stronger, and the more actively it will radiate heat into the cold emptiness of space until it cools down to the point where what it is radiating out into space can be replaced by incoming radiation from the Sun.
Given the amount of radiation falling on the Earth from the Sun, there are limits on how hot or how cold the Earth can get. That’s simple physics.There are also some other ways to heat the Earth without increasing the radiation from the sun. One would be to alter the albedo by making the surface or the atmosphere darker so that it absorbs more heat. A second way would be to increase the mass of the atmosphere. And a third way would be to increase the tilt of the earth’s orbit so that the differences between the seasons became more marked.
The effect of increasing the concentration of car-bon-di-oxide in the atmosphere by a “homeopathic” amount by going from 3 molecules out of 10,000 to 4 molecules out of 10,000 without changing the mass of the atmosphere significantly, when considered next to some of the enormous changes that are going on in the dynamics of the Earth, the Solar System, and the Galaxy (that you may not be aware of because you are not being propagandized about them 24/7 but they are going on just the same), may well add up to doing diddly squat clim-ate-wise.
“the enormous changes that are going on in the dynamics of the Earth, the Solar System, and the Galaxy”
Yes, we must question *everything*, especially those things we don’t fully understand. It’s *scientific*.
Well, to put it even more simply, the current forest fires in California are the result of Green policies on steroids. If modern people want to live in California and not get burned out from time to time, they are going to have to do what the first people’s did, which is manage the forest using controlled fires to reduce the amount of combustable materials.
I have friends in Northern California. One of them a 65 year old lady who lost her home to a fire in Reading last summer. According to her, local sentiment largely views these fires a the fault of Jerry Brown, the EPA, and decades of neglecting responsible forest management.
You are probably too young to remember the “dust bowl years” of the 1930s, but there were places in the rain shadow of the Rockies that didn’t get a drop of rain for six years. It’s called cli-mate, but it is actually a moving average of several decades of weather, and it changes because weather changes.
Why does weather change? That’s an interesting question. Many ordinary people, including educated ones, haven’t thought much about this question and they tend to assume that weather causes weather. However, that ain’t necessarily so. For instance, a lot of whether phenomena can be traced to or modified by the occurrence of solar flares and other extraterrestrial sources.
Have you ever considered the effect of supernova on the weather? On average, a supernova will occur about once every 50 years in a galaxy the size of the Milky Way. If one of the 1,000 or so stars within 30 light years ever goes supernova, you can say goodbye to life on earth because the blast will grill the surface of the planet and strip away the atmosphere. But even much more distant supernova send out cosmic rays, some of which hit the atmosphere and moderate the formation of clouds, thereby moderating the weather and changing the albedo and the global temperature as a consequence. Essentially, the influence of supernova on our weather is chaotic, since the time and distances at which they occur is random, although there will tend to be more of them when we are passing through a galactic spiral arm. So there! (sticks tongue out, places thumb a against nose, and makes mocking noises)
When a butterfly flaps its wings … on another planet…. it affects the weather and kkklimate … on Earth….
Apparently Green Groopies will not allow any forest management that involves cutting brush or other vegetation … that would not be politically correct to do so….
Here – check them out — this is superb insanity!
https://youtu.be/G880gxjj9dI
the recent trends in CO2 conc. and heat are against your logic, as are the variations in atmospheric CO2 over the Phanerozoic, essentially from about 570 Ma BP until Present. when CO2 is at about 1600 ppm, (0.16%) you get a Carboniferous Period with Lycopod trees and fern swamps pole-to-pole and dragonflies the size of small drones. it would not be comfortable to Humans, having evolved in a much colder cli-mate with 150-300 ppm levels. probably the wet bulb temperatures would exceed our ability to self cool, leading to heat death outside of artificial AC conditions in most places. the models indicate these these temperatures will be reached in some places and will spread at the 500+ ppm range.
“models”…
5+ parts per 10,000?
sure, nothing happened at 4+, so delay for 5…
“… the concentration of car-bon-di-oxide in the atmosphere by a “homeopathic” amount by going from 3 molecules out of 10,000 to 4 molecules out of 10,000…”
excellent, Tim!
“homeopathic”… that’s it!
I see no good rebuttal for your fine essay…
you have increased the doubt of many!
Doomphed, you have a PhD in geological sciences, so you can’t claim ignorance and yet you write: “when CO2 is at about 1600 ppm, (0.16%) you get a Carboniferous Period” with the implication that if CO2 rises to 1600 ppm (4 times its current level), then we will get another Carboniferous Period.
That isn’t true, is it? The CO2 level didn’t cause the Carboniferous Period, did it? Surely you’re joking, Mr. Doomphed.
Throughout most of the period from the Cambrian 600 million years ago, CO2 levels were astronomically high by today’s standards, with a maximum of perhaps 7% (7,000 ppm) around 540 million years ago and oxygen levels were extremely low. From the time of the “Cambrian explosion” of lifeforms, plants and algae proliferated and spent over 200 million years reducing the CO2 levels and boosting the oxygen levels, which took us to the Carboniferous, when CO2 levels were historically low, although not as low as they are today.
The Carboniferous is named because it was the period when the bulk of the world’s coal deposits were laid down from dead vegetation. The reason this vegetation didn’t rot was due to a combination of lower oxygen levels than today’s and to the absence of fungi and other organisms that could break down the cellulose in dead wood, because they hadn’t evolved yet.
You know all this at least as well as I do. So how are we going to get anther Carboniferous Period with all these highly evolved fungi ardent to feast on dead and living trees at every opportunity?
you and Dave are missing the important point that small changes in the amount of a minor or trace gas can have big effects on heat by IR absorption in the atmosphere containing it. there is plenty of literature on this topic, if you want to know.
another important aspect of this discussion is us Humans are not evolved to handle anything close to cli-mates of the Paleozoic Period. if we begin to go that way, heat death awaits those not in powered AC space suits or structures. just because we benefit from burning coal now does not translate to being able to co-habitate with the forest ecosystems that produced it.
But it’s not having any effect… that’s why they faked the numbers:
KKKLIMATE DATA FAKED
by John Bates (leading kkklimate scientist)
In the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. I also provide my suggestions for how we might keep such a flagrant manipulation of scientific integrity guidelines and scientific publication standards from happening in the future. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
There is plenty of of literature on the topic, yes. But I’ve seen no proof or persuasive empirical evidence that small changes in the amount of a minor or trace gas have ever significantly impacted the temperature of planet Earth, and that’s the whole point, isn’t it?
I’ve seen endless squabbling about which data is correct how it should or should not be interpreted, but that’s not the same thing as “Eureaka!”
Indeed playing with clime-ate science data resembles vote counting in Florida elections. We can never really be sure if it’s legit, can we? Because both are equally politicized.
My own take: We are well into the autumn of the current interglacial. The warm period is ending because the amount of summer insolation in the region around 65 degrees north is plummeting with the result that the Earth is radiating more heat into space than it is absorbing from insolation. But
Just as with the annual “weather” cycle, we don’t know whether tomorrow is going to be colder or warmer than today but we can be 99% certain that November will be colder than October and December will be colder than November in the NH, so with the glacial-interglacial “clim-ate” cycle, we don’t know if the next century will be warmer or cooler than the last but we know that each of the past four or five millennia has been cooler than the previous one, we can explain why, and we can be sure that the cooling is going to continue until Canada and Scandinavia are covered in ice caps again.
The earth is our laboratory here, and the past and the present provide us with all sorts of data. How we interpret that real world data is “the rub”.
Today, we have car-bon-di-oxide levels higher than at any time in several million years. But we don’t have a world warmer than at any time in several million years, do we?
Indeed, it was very probably several degrees warmer than the present and the sea level was up to 10 meters higher when water buffalo and hippos lived in Germany during the Eemian interglacial around 130,000 years ago, and a degree or two warmer than the present and with sea levels several meters higher than at present during the Holocene optimum just 6 or 8 thousand years ago, when they laid down the law in Mesopotamia. Neither of these warm periods are explainable as being caused by small changes in the amount of a minor or trace gas BECAUSE while it did increase in the warm times, the presence of higher amounts of said trace gas did not prevent subsequent cooling. But both warming fit in nicely with well-understood and predictable changes in the earth’s orbital parameters that alter the amount of insolation at 65 degrees north.
But as a geophysicist, you know all this and can explain it better than I can, don’t you?
‘It Is Difficult to Get a Man to Understand Something When He is St.upid.’ Fast Eddy.
I am f789ing trademarking that one…. I want my place in history right up there with Sinclair…. I bloody well deserve it.
“Why is that so difficult to accept?”
Because accepting it means we can’t repeat autistic mantras about BAU and have an excuse to direct surplus bile towards arbitrary categories of people or things. You see, we should question *everything*. It’s scientific.
I’ve heard of differential equations and exponential functions. I have not heard of differential functions.
Yes, equations. Been a while since I solved one of those. Now I’m getting flashbacks of weekend math torture sessions with dad. Oh, to be born again and never live to wish it!
Uncle Bill the MOre on … strikes again!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_California
Historic droughts
3.1 1841
3.2 1863-1864
3.3 1924
3.4 1929–1934
3.5 1950s
3.6 1976–77
3.7 1986–1992
3.8 2007–2009
3.9 2011–2017
Uncle Bill…. Fast Eddy has again made a fo ol of you…. exposed your as a total im be cile…
How do you feel about that?
wow…
severe clliimate chchange in the 19th century…
I wonder why…
I don’t understand this either….
We are told that our burning of fossil fuels over the past 100 years is leading to drought .. hotter temps (and colder temps! and massive rain storms called hurricanes!!!)
Yet we were experiencing the EXACT same things long before that.
Words escape to describe the stuuuupidity of people who — even though I have exposed this — continue to believe in the Ho ax.
It beggars belief!
Bill,
the evidence for clarinet change is shaky at this point.
CC-believers use evidence of climax variation as evidence of permanent and significant changes to a climax.
What natural provides changes from time to time. Animals and plants have adaptations built in to deal with periodic shortages of water and food.
If all the Earth’s climates were getting hotter, you and I would not be talking about we wouldn’t be on the Internet to discuss it. We’d be too busy trying to find some food and water.
In the future, CC may be a problem but right now, the main problem is human consumption of natural resources.
!!!!!!!
Day after day after day … I read about how we are killing ourselves by burning fossil fuels…. and yet nothing has changed… we have burned enormous amounts of FF… and nothing has happened that has NOT happened since the beginning of time…. the kkkklimate is changing in some places… as it ALWAYS has…..
Bt we are killing ourselves…. by adding nearly 100 million new people (and growing) to the planet year after year after year…..
Do I read about that … is their a spokesperson … an Al Gore …. shouting about this inconvenient .. and VERY REAL TRUTH?
Nope.
Funny that?
Reminds me of the plastic bag issue…. we in the first world MUST stop using them … because we are wrecking the oceans…
Yet 90%+ of the plastic in the oceans is coming from the third world….
But I keep reading about how we must stop using plastic…. and nothing about how the third world is the problem
Lie after lie after lie after lie… crammed down the throats of the duuumb f789s that are like so many vermin on the planet
Don’t worry. The way things are going, we are all going to be living in the Third World by around 2025.
Great – I’ll start throwing my plastic bags in the river when the rubbish collection stops!
Fifteen(!) wildfires now in CA…
data shows that most of these types of fires are caused by humans…
I think electric power lines tend to be the problem, at least some of the time. Are they humans? The Northern California electric utility PG&E shut off electricity for a while recently to reduce the wildfire risk.https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation-now/2018/10/15/pge-voluntarily-shut-off-power-north-california-wildfires/1646686002/
PG&E had been sued earlier for causing wildfires, so they decided to change their policies to just turn off electricity to reduce wildfire risk.
It looks like rolling blackouts might be on the horizon for California again
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis
This time they might happen because a major electricity provider is having trouble keeping its electrical transmission lines in good condition.
I wonder…no, it’s true…. at least one electricity company is trying to shift the blame for more frequent forest fires on Climate Change
” Under state law, the utility is financially responsible for property damage caused by its equipment, even if investigators can’t prove negligence, such as failures to trim trees or maintain equipment. It’s based on a legal principle called “inverse condemnation.”
“PG&E wants that changed to reflect what company CEO Geisha Williams calls the “new normal:” Climate change giving California a drier, and more fire-prone environment.”
https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/06/23/pge-is-spending-big-in-sacramento-as-it-struggles-with-costs-of-north-bay-fires/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-13/facing-17-billion-in-fire-damages-a-ceo-blames-climate-change
Climate change is a better story than that electricity companies are having trouble keeping their infrastructure in good condition. It’s so desperate because it is publicly known that they have not been doing proper maintenance…but no one suspects it might be because electricity prices are too low to cover the cost of maintaining its infrastructure.
And the defence calls as its first and only witness…
John Bates…
John can you explain how the data was faked and then data input deleted for the jury…..
Sure….in the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. I also provide my suggestions for how we might keep such a flagrant manipulation of scientific integrity guidelines and scientific publication standards from happening in the future. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided…….
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
This from 2017:
Authorities suspect that downed PG&E power lines may have sparked the devastating wildfires in the North Bay that have so far killed 42 people. In the past dozen days, about 100,000 people have been evacuated statewide as 21 large fires decimated at least 8,400 structures and burned through more than 246,000 acres. Most of the damage was in PG&E’s vast service area.
At this point, we really don’t know if Pacific Gas and Electric Co. is at fault. But in some ways, it doesn’t matter. After a major tragedy like these fires, we need someone, something to blame. And PG&E is the perfect villain.
This is the company whose negligence led to a natural gas pipeline explosion in San Bruno seven years ago, a tragedy that killed eight people and injured more than 50. A federal jury found the company guilty of obstructing justice by lying to regulators about its pipeline-testing policy. PG&E was also accused of collaborating with a top state regulator to find a judge who would be more friendly to the company.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/San-Bruno-explosion-hangs-over-PG-E-amid-wildfire-12295105.php
The problem is that we really need our electric companies, if we are to have electricity. California made changes in the mid-1990s that was called deregulation. According to the
Wikipedia article quoted up-thread:
As I understand the situation, under de-regulation, it was hard for anyone to have funds to take care of electric power lines. Upgrading of very old transmission lines was not done until really needed it. Long distance transmission that was intended for only very occasional use, suddenly got pressed into action for heavy-duty interstate use. Nowhere were there funds for taking care of the lines. California is very dependent on its electricity imports. This is a chart I made a while ago of production and consumption. The different is imported electricity, quite a bit of it from the State of Washington.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/07/california-electricity-production-and-consumption-through-2017.png
Hydroelectric made the electricity situation look fairly good in 2017.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2018/08/california-annual-hydroelectric-production.png
I sure that vegetation grew well, with all of the rain in 2017. Once it dried out, it is available to burn. 2018 seems to be drier.
that all makes perfect sense…
so CA failed to adequately fund maintenance for its existing infrastructure…
this sounds like “new normal”…
It sounds like we are back to the electrical transmission problem:
PG&E was sued earlier about electrical fires.
Or perhaps someone parked their Tesla in the woods…. and it spontaneously combusted….
Fire is such a cheap and effective weapon; isn’t it interesting how the tool that enabled our rise is being used to hasten our demise…perhaps
Horror… Horror has a face… and you must make a friend of horror. Horror and moral terror are your friends. If they are not, then they are enemies to be feared. They are truly enemies!
Gail, You keep doing such nice work! What I’m trying to do now is to tracing the harmful externalities of growth as they overtake the benefits. That probably started in the 1960’s as environmental impacts started to swell. Of course that’s also sometimes quite subjective and often not accounted for or monetized, etc. but you’d at least think there would be long time series aggregating the costs of insurance, soil and water depletion and things like that. I just don’t seem to know where to look for the data or people studying it.
What I’ve started is displayed in my two research notes on my journal, on the growth rate constants of environmental impact curves coupled to GDP, and how to deduce the true rate of climate change from them.
– http://synapse9.com/signals/2018/06/18/evidence-decoupling-still-zero/
– http://synapse9.com/signals/2018/10/08/growing-rate-of-warming/
Have any ideas?
Jessie
Hey there Jessie… I’ve done some research on that topic as well…. let me share:
KKKLIMATE DATA FAKED
by John Bates (leading kkklimate scientist)
In the following sections, I provide the details of how Mr. Karl failed to disclose critical information to NOAA, Science Magazine, and Chairman Smith regarding the datasets used in K15. I have extensive documentation that provides independent verification of the story below. I also provide my suggestions for how we might keep such a flagrant manipulation of scientific integrity guidelines and scientific publication standards from happening in the future. Finally, I provide some links to examples of what well documented CDRs look like that readers might contrast and compare with what Mr. Karl has provided.
https://judithcurry.com/2017/02/04/c limate-scientists-versus-c limate-data/
GGG WWWW Ho ax:
https://www.nationalreview.com/2015/10/c
limate-c
hange-no-its-not-97-percent-consensus-ian-tuttle/
Are you a cllllimte sciontist?
Check this link out
https://youtu.be/c0BMyT4RCzY
Global dimming? I think there’s a very good chance it’s happening. We’ve been dimming down the younger generation for several decades now as we move full tilt into the Endarkenment—the New Dark Age of Universal Ignorance brought to us by Google, Facebook, Snopes, the legacy mass media, Bill Nye, Roundup, vaccines, cellphone radiation, online games, the universities, Common Core, old uncle Tom Cobbly and all….
Gr 8 exam – 1912
http://wac.450f.edgecastcdn.net/80450F/hot1047.com/files/2013/08/8th-grade-1912-2-e1376272118106.png
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/07/30/article-2381482-1B11AFCF000005DC-677_634x486.jpg
https://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/07/30/article-2381482-1B11AFCF000005DC-894_634x595.jpg
https://youtu.be/9xGikWEd1p8
http://oil-price.net/ shows, once again, that both dub & Brent finished the week down for 3 months (& not up by much, for the year) — noticing Gail’s Figure 2, above, might the early-October price spike have been “the last hurrah”?
On an off-topic matter, our sky here in Fremont, CA (south of Oakland), is covered with smoke from a fire northeast of Sacramento (run a search for California fires & see some of the videos) — here, they put the fires out during thunderstorm times, then, when fires come during Foehn winds, there’s no stopping them (our western climate’s a real changeling lately — going between floods & droughts).
I’m typing this on a tablet powered by a deep-cycle battery, mostly charged yesterday from a solar panel — if you use solar power off-the-grid chronically, like I’ve been doing for several years, you get an idea of its high cost & feebleness (no AC power grid gets even nearly half its energy from IRE ([intermittent renewable energy]).
“… might the early-October price spike have been “the last hurrah”?”
yes, could be… in today’s dollars… but of course, the price in dollars could go way higher if inflation takes off…
“… our western climate’s a real changeling lately…”
sure is!
but of course, it’s been a “real changeling” for millions of years… ya know?
“… might the early-October price spike have been “the last hurrah”?”
yes, could be… in today’s dollars… but of course, the price in dollars could go way higher if inflation takes off…
“… our western clliimate’s a real changeling lately…”
sure is!
but of course, it’s been a “real changeling” for millions of years… ya know?
yes – always changing … this IS a really good site that documents such things
https://www.iceagenow.info/
https://youtu.be/CNw0EgVKZro
Powerd by wind and solar! lol
Saludos
el mar
Looks like gasoline, doesn’t it!
Tidal power is on the decline.
From iceagenow.info
“Wither Tidal-Current Power?
In 2016, with considerable fanfare, the Cape Sharp Tidal (CST) company launched its “long-awaited” underwater test turbine in the Bay of Fundy. CST, co-owned by Nova Scotia’s Emera Inc. (EI), and the Irish co. OpenHydro Ltd. (OH), a subsidiary of the French co. Naval Energies, (NE), have hit the end of the road. Both CST and OH have now filed for bankruptcy.
Emera recently pulled out of the CST venture after “The surprise application by Naval Energies to Ireland’s High Court on July 26 requesting the liquidation of OpenHydro and Naval Energies’ subsequent statement that it will no longer support or invest in tidal turbines left Emera with no practical choice but to withdraw from Cape Sharp Tidal”
As recently as Sept. 18, 2018, “An Irish technical team brought into work on the Cape Sharp Tidal turbine in the Bay of Fundy is trying to determine why the machine’s rotor is not turning.”
This is a superb site!
https://www.iceagenow.info/
My company is in on that. They asked me if I wanted a piece…I politely said NO
2019 UK – agreed!
But this will infect Europe soon – first Italy than France, Germany unable to help – than the banks in general and so the complete finacial system, worldwide. This won´t take eleven years.
Aditionally stress from diminishing net energy supply.
2022 – game over.
Saludos
el mar
Charles Hugh Smith says “global meltdown” probably around 2022-2025 with a few “global crises” and “saves” along the way…
I can imagine a few more “global crises” and “saves” out to 2030…
but at some point, the attempted “save” won’t work…
all of this is because of your point: diminishing net energy supply…
I have a reasonable life expectancy into the 2030s, so time will tell…
I don’t think there will be any more crises — not even a global recession … we’ll keep powering forward as we have since 2008 on debt and stimulus…. and we’ll slam into a brick wall at full tilt…
alright then…
yours is a claim that will be tested in the next couple of years…
I think recession is imminent…
then, from that lower level, the economy will “grow”…
but never regain the higher level…
soon enough, there will be no more “recovery” from recession…
diminishing surplus energy will not allow it to happen…
if there is no plan B i wonder how long we have left before the system unravels lets have some educated guesses to see what the consensus reveals . My guess is 3 years
educated (here at OFW) guesses:
2018 in Venezuela…
2019 in UK…
2030 worldwide…
If UK goes down, the whole world follows…. We are so interconnected…
yes… the endgame seems certain… the timing seems unpredictable…
the UK won’t go down overnight… Venezuela has been falling since 2014…
perhaps Brazil Argentina etc sooner, and a few more years for the UK Italy etc…
though it might be more appealing if we all went “offline” together, that doesn’t seem to be the pattern which has emerged since 2014…
UK-TBTF….
because of the Brexit vote, they may have been dropped from the TBTF list…
it’s just a small island that perhaps is being sacrificed by The Core…
5th-6th by GDP, 10x larger than Venezuela.
If it does it is game over The city of London will not go down without a fight.
The UK has a GNP lower than California.
That should help the UK. They don’t have as far to fall.
Hold on now!!! Usually you say next week or so. What the heck happened? Did you run out of Mondays?
there are many Mondays on my 2030 calendar…
Financial Crash 2008 Redux >> Now -2025
World Economy In Hospice >> 2025 – 2030
Modern World. Lights Out >> 2030 – 2035
Thanks for playing!
https://media.giphy.com/media/PCxzeSqlWt05O/giphy.gif
Very reasonable estimates. Also, it seems to be different collapse mechanisms in play. Peripheral countries can go lights out in a very short time frame, like Venezuela and MENA-countries. But core countries have more staying power as the economic system pulls the global resources towards the core, slowly impoverishment of their population which also is docile and not up for revolting.
I am kind of living through the slow collapse, maybe that is why I hold this view of the future. I went from making $100k a year, lost my job, now I am working part time earning $25k a year while learning a profession that might earn me $50k a year. No zombie hordes coming to take my family, just can’t afford as much frivolous stuff, beer, vacations etc. This is what collapse looks like in the core. But it is invisible to those individuals that has not “collapsed” yet.