We read a lot in the news about the new Wuhan coronavirus and the illness it causes (COVID-19), but some important points often get left out.
[1] COVID-19 is incredibly contagious.
COVID-19 transmits extremely easily from person to person. Interpersonal contact doesn’t need to be very long; a taxi driver can get the virus from a passenger, for example. The virus may be transmissible even before an infected person develops symptoms. It may also be transmissible for a few days after a person seems to be over the virus; it is possible to get positive virus tests, even after symptoms disappear. Some people may have the disease, but never show symptoms.
[2] The virus likely remains active on inanimate surfaces such as paper, plastic, or metal for many days.
There haven’t been tests on the COVID-19 virus per se, but studies on similar viruses suggest that human pathogens may remain infectious for up to eight days. Some viruses that only infect animals can survive for more than 28 days. China is reported to be destroying paper currency from the hardest hit area, because people do not want to accept money which may have viruses on it. Clearly, surfaces in airplanes, trains and buses may also harbor viruses, long after a passenger with the virus has left, unless they have been thoroughly wiped down with disinfectant.
[3] Given Issues [1] and [2], about the only way to avoid spreading COVID-19 seems to be geographic isolation.
With all of today’s travel, geographic isolation doesn’t work very well in practice. People need food and medical supplies. They need to keep basic services such as electricity and garbage collection operating. Suppliers of food and other services need to come and leave the area and that tends to spread COVID-19. Also, the longer a geographic area is isolated, the larger the percentage of the people within the area that is likely to get COVID-19. The problem is that the people need to have contact with others in the area for purposes such as buying food, and that tends to spread the disease.
[4] The real story regarding the number of deaths and illnesses seems to be far worse than the story China is telling its own people and the world.
The real story seems to be that the number of deaths is far greater than the number reported–perhaps 10 times as high as being reported. The number of illnesses is also much higher. At one point, facilities doing cremations in the Wuhan area were reported to be doing four to five times the normal number of cremations. Some of the bodies in the Wuhan area now need to be sent to other areas of China because there is not enough local cremation capacity.
China doesn’t dare tell its people how bad the situation really is, for fear of panic. They want to tell a story of being in control and handling the situation well. The news media in the West repeat the stories that the government-controlled publications of China provide, even though they seem to present a much more favorable situation than really seems to be the case.
[5] Our ability to identify who has the new coronavirus is poor.
While there is a test for the coronavirus, it costs hundreds of dollars to administer. Even with this high cost, the results of the tests aren’t very reliable. The test tends to produce many false negatives. The virus may be present somewhere inside the person being tested, but not in the areas touched by swabs of the throat and nose.
[6] Some people get much more severe symptoms from COVID-19 than others.
Most people, perhaps 80% of people, seem to get a fairly light form of the COVID-19 illness. Groups that seem particularly prone to adverse outcomes include the elderly, smokers, those who are obese, and those with high blood pressure, diabetes, or poor immune systems. Males seem to have worse outcomes than females.
Strangely enough, there is speculation that people with East Asian ancestry (Chinese, Japanese, or Vietnamese) may have a higher risk of adverse outcomes than those of European or African ancestry. One of the things that is targeted by the disease is the ACE2 receptor. The 1000 Genome Project studied expected differences in ACE2 receptors among various groups. Based on this analysis, some researchers (in non-peer-reviewed studies, here and here) predict that those of European or African ancestry will tend to get lighter forms of the disease. These findings are contested in another, non-peer-reviewed study.
Figure 1. Chart from Coronavirus risk for Asians, Africans, Caucasians revealed.
Bolstering the view that East Asians are more susceptible to viruses that target the ACE2 receptor is the fact that SARS, which also tends to target the ACE2 receptor, tended to stay primarily in China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore. While there were cases elsewhere, they tended to have few deaths.
Observational data with respect to COVID-19 is needed to determine whether there truly is a difference in the severity of the illness among different populations.
[7] China has been using geographical quarantine to try to hold down the number of COVID-19 cases. The danger with such a quarantine is that once the economy is down, it is very difficult to come back to the pre-quarantine state.
Data shows that China’s economy is not reopening quickly after the extended New Year holiday finished.
Figure 2. China daily passenger flows, relative to Chinese New Year. Amounts are now down more than 80% and have not increased, even as some businesses are theoretically reopening. Chart by ANZ, copied by WSJ Daily Shot Feb. 17, 2020.
Figure 3. China property transactions, before and after Chinese New Year. Chart by Goldman Sachs. Reprinted by WSJ Daily Shot, Feb. 17, 2020.
All businesses will be adversely affected by a lack of sales if they need to continue to pay overhead expenses. Small and medium-sized businesses will be especially adversely affected. Bloomberg reports that if a shutdown lasts for three months, there is a substantial chance that these businesses will run through their savings and fail. Thus, these businesses may be permanently lost if the economy is down for several months.
Also, restarting after a shut-down is more difficult than it might appear. Take, for example, a mother who wants to go back to work. She will likely need:
- Public transportation to be operating, so she has a way to get to work;
- School to be open, so she doesn’t need to worry about her child while she is at work;
- Masks to be available, so that she and her child can comply with requirements to wear them;
- Stores providing necessities such as food to be open, or she may be too hungry to work
If anything is missing, the mother is likely not to go back to work. Required masks seem to be a problem right now, but other pieces could be missing as well.
Businesses, too, need a full range of workers to restart their operations. If the inspector doing the final inspection is not available, the business may not really be able to ship finished products, even if most of the workers are back.
[8] A shutdown of as little as three months is likely to be damaging to the world economy.
Multiple things are likely to go wrong:
(a) Commodity prices are likely to fall steeply, because of low demand from China. Oil prices, in particular, are likely to fall steeply, perhaps to $30 to $35 per barrel. Besides cutbacks in oil demand from China, there is the issue of a general reduction in long distance travel, because of fear of traveling with other passengers with COVID-19.
(b) US businesses, such as Apple, will find their supply chains broken. They won’t know when, and if, they can ship products.
(c) Debt defaults are likely to become more common, especially in China. The longer the slowdown/shutdown lasts, the greater the extent to which debt defaults are likely to spread around the world.
(d) The world economy is likely to be pushed into recession, without an easy way to get out again.
[9] The longer the shutdown lasts, the more likely there is to be a major collapse of the Chinese economy.
In the event of a long-term shutdown, it would seem likely that, at a minimum, a new leader would take over. In fact, there would seem to be a significant chance of major changes within the economy. For example, the provinces of China that are able to restart might attempt to restart, leaving the more damaged areas behind. In such a case, instead of having a single Chinese government to deal with, there might be multiple governmental units to deal with.
Each governmental unit might consist of a few provinces trying to provide services such as they are able, without the benefit of the parts of the economy that are still shut down. Each governmental unit might have its own currency. If this should happen, China will be able to provide far fewer goods and services than it has in the recent past.
[10] Planners everywhere have been guilty of “putting too many eggs in one basket.”
Planners today look for efficiency. For example, placing a large share of the world’s industry in China looks like it is an efficient approach. Unfortunately, we are asking for trouble if the Chinese economy hits a bump in the road. Using just-in-time supply lines looks like a good idea as well, but if a major supplier cannot provide parts for a while, then having inventory on hand would have been a better approach.
If we want systems to be sustainable, they really need a lot of redundancy. Redundant systems are not as efficient, but they are much more likely to be sustainable through difficult times. There is a recent article in Nature that talks about this issue. One of the things it says is,
A system with a single cycle is the most unstable because the deletion of any cycle-node or link breaks the sustaining feedback mechanism.
“A system with a single cycle” is basically similar to “putting all of our eggs in one basket.” “Deletion of any cycle-node or link” is something like China running into coronavirus problems. We probably need a world economy that consists of many nearly separate local economies to be certain of long-term world economy stability. Alternatively, we need a great deal of redundancy built into our systems. For example, we need large inventories to work around the possibility of missing contributions from one country, in the case of a problem such as a major epidemic.
Conclusion
The world economy may become very different, simply because of COVID-19. The new virus doesn’t even need to directly affect the rest of the world very much to create a problem. The United States, Europe, and the rest of the world are very much dependent on the continued operation of China. The world economy has effectively put way too many eggs in one basket, and this basket is now not functioning as expected.
If China is barely producing anything for world markets, the rest of the world will suddenly discover that long supply chains weren’t such a good idea. There will be a big scramble to try to fill in the missing pieces of supply chains, but many goods are likely to be less available. We may discover quickly how much we depend upon China for everything from shoes to automobiles to furniture to electronics. World carbon dioxide emissions are likely to fall dramatically because of China’s problems, but will the accompanying issues be ones that the world economy can tolerate?
The thing that is ironic is that it is possible that the West’s fear of the new coronavirus may be overblown–we really won’t know what the impact will be with respect to people of European or of African descent until we have had a better chance to examine how the virus affects different populations. The next few weeks and months are likely to be quite instructive. For example, how will the Americans and Australians who caught COVID-19 on the cruise ships fare? What will the health outcomes be of non-Asians being brought back from Wuhan to their native countries on special planes?
“The world is fast approaching a “tipping point” in the spread of the coronavirus, according to experts…”
[You suspect this is one of several interrelated tipping points we are about to hit in quick succession.]
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/23/world-is-approaching-coronavirus-tipping-point-experts-say
This article has some interesting things in it, including a map showing where the Italian cases are located. The part with the cases is up against the border with Switzerland, in the middle of Italy. It doesn’t touch either of the coasts. I don’t think of that as being a hot spot for overseas tourists, but I don’t know much about the area.
Read this one carefully, headlines are designed to snare eyeballs to get them ads read, but it appears this virus came from a lab which lab is uncertain. One lab was apparently collecting bats, a good bet would be a bat tossed in a trash can, etc., the other was into virology.
I did not read the article, I am not sure which lab and I don’t think anyone really as of yet knows which one as the story has gone from a fish market and December of 2019 to November 2019 and a laboratory. .
We have physicians giving their lives to stop this, a guess is they know more than we and this is a bit more that a bat going batty and biting someone(I can’t resist sometimes.) What is humbling is man will give his/her life in the best interests of humanity, we are a confusing species.
The damn thing seems to be serious and it really is raising hell with retirement planning.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/chinese-scientists-find-coronavirus-did-not-originate-wuhan-seafood-market
Articles like this need a second source, they need time to mature and digest, race to judgment is sort of like running from one end of a building to another looking for a way out during a fire. We don’t know, but the fish market story is starting to smell like some of the next day’s fish that were neither refrigerated nor sold before their pull date.
Dennis L.
I read the article and then followed through to the non-peer reviewed preprint of the article tracing back the ancestry of the virus, based on slight differences in the virus over time. In this way, they were able to trace back which viruses seemed to come from which sources.
Anyhow, this analysis seems to give credibility to the theory that the virus originated as early as November. The market was one place that caused its spread, but there were other cases that have nothing to do with the market cases. There seems to be a different earlier source.
Damn…2020 is gonna be some decade folks! Hope you all are ready….Freddie…I mean Fast Eddie
Millions of Chinese Firms Face Collapse If Banks Don’t Act Fast
Bloomberg News
BloombergFebruary 22, 2020, 7:00 PM EST
(Bloomberg) — Brigita, a director at one of China’s largest car dealers, is running out of options. Her firm’s 100 outlets have been closed for about a month because of the coronavirus, cash reserves are dwindling and banks are reluctant to extend deadlines on billions of yuan in debt coming due over the next few months. There are also other creditors to think about.
“If we can’t pay back the bonds, it will be very, very bad,” said Brigita, whose company has 10,000 employees and sells mid- to high-end car brands such as BMWs. She asked that only her first name be used and that her firm not be identified because she isn’t authorized to speak to the press.
With much of China’s economy still idled as authorities try to contain an epidemic that has infected more than 75,000 people, millions of companies across the country are in a race against the clock to stay afloat.
A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months.
While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s.
This could be the Black swan event….
Inability to pay back loans is the big issue I see when businesses are closed for long periods. It is not just businesses that cannot pay back loans. It is also private individuals that are not getting wages (or enough wages), so they cannot pay their car and home loans. Also, governments don’t get enough tax revenue. If the financial system collapses, I am afraid that the Chinese economy will tend to collapse. The problems are likely to spread around the world, in many ways: derivative defaults, loan defaults, lower home prices, lower stock prices.
You are making retirement planning a real challenge, time to lay back a few cases of Cabernet, red wine, with screw tops in case the cork puller is misplaced.
Dennis L.
Stay on good terms with any children you may have. In the past, a person’s children and grandchildren were have allowed employment at older ages. Older people helped with childcare or helped on farms, to the extent they could. I run into quite a few older people who help with daycare for their grandchildren after leaving the paid workforce.
The talk of eventual Chinese recovery and resumption of production seems highly questionable when one reflects that the rest of the world will be in the throes of the pandemic at that hypothetical point (summer-autumn 2020): all China’s major markets will be compromised and hardly ardent consumers as before, whether corporate or private.
And then will come another winter, and we shall see what the virus gets up at that favourable season: no vaccine at all possible for another year after that, if ever.
Those are good points.
Regarding vaccine, I am afraid the new virus may be too much like Dengue Fever. A vaccine doesn’t really work, because the virus keeps mutating, at the same time that whatever immunity was gained gradually declines. Somehow, this combination leads to a worse outcome after vaccination, rather than a better outcome.
Depletion never sleeps in an oil field….
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chevron-future-growth-prospects-dwindle-120000584.html
(Bloomberg) — Chevron Corp.’s future growth prospects may be dimming after the oil explorer pumped more crude than it discovered or bought last year, eroding its portfolio of untapped fields.
New finds, acquisitions and expansions of existing oil and natural gas holdings were equivalent to just 44% of the company’s 2019 production, according to a regulatory filing on Friday. That was Chevron’s poorest performance in that important metric since 2010.
The measure, known as the reserves-replacement ratio, is key for investors because it helps them gauge whether an oil driller is doing enough to sustain future production that underpins everything from dividends to buybacks to acquisitions.
For Chevron, whose stock outperformed all other supermajor oil producers last year, the reserves data signals the company may be struggling to locate untouched caches of oil and gas as investors turn increasingly skeptical of the industry’s sustainability.
Chevron also wrote down the value of U.S. gas assets last year as prices for the fuel collapsed
….Even within the fossil-fuel arena, Chevron has few major investments planned beyond the middle of the decade. Chevron is “not nearly as reliant” on large-scale oil and gas projects to generate cash in the future, preferring low-risk shale drilling, Wirth said last month. He is due to update investors on the company’s strategy and goals on March 3.
Chevron noted that 70% of its worldwide reserves are concentrated in three countries: the U.S., Australia and Kazakhstan. That level of geographic concentration may give rise to concern among investors because it signals increased vulnerability to legislative changes or regional conflict
Looks like the Brick Wall is coming on fast forward 😁…
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xvXEPMdvDJU
If prices are rising, it makes a big difference. Then it is possible to get more oil out of existing fields. High cost techniques become affordable. It is really low prices that are the problem.
The WTI didn’t breakdown from its support line. It bounced from it.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ERS_s13XkAAnr2S?format=png&name=large
The time for low oil prices hasn’t come yet.
Magic.
Perhaps the right time will “never” come.
Let say if you have to circle the wagons around only one single column of support, well it just could be it. So, next few GFC_ver_XY will be marked by the strange oddity of not crashing oil price.
Frankly, that’s one of possible scenarios out there with decent probability.
So if you are an oil shorter you have turned into a widow maker these days, because you believed “markets” must act rationally. Well they don’t, and they are not markets in the first place anymore, besides the fluid factor of timing.
It may be that $50 is the low oil price, at least from the point of view of the producers.
It does appear that most, if not all, are losing money at the price of oil over the last year or so
As the Corona Virus acts as a brake on the world economy, the price of oil will certainly drop. We’re still in the early stages though with knock on effects to come in due time, like a couple of months, let’s say May the price of oil will have dropped into the high 30’s, low 40’s. That is unless the Corona Virus can be slowed/stopped in its tracks from becoming a pandemic on steroids.
It seems like you might be right. The price dropped very low in early 2016. Brent dropped to $26.01 on January 20, 2016 and WTI dropped to $26.68 on the spot market.
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Remember a while back a maverick built his own rocket to propel him to , “outer space”, back in 2018….Well, this attempt did not go too well…pushed the envelope too far and bought the farm
Daredevil dies after homemade rocket crashes in desert while filming TV show
JON HAWORTH
Good Morning AmericaFebruary 23, 2020
A daredevil has died after crashing in a homemade rocket he had launched himself while filming a program.
“Mad” Mike Hughes, 64, died on Saturday near Barstow, California, after a rocket that he had built and crashed into the ground on private property at approximately 1:52 p.m. on Saturday near Highway 247, according to the San Bernardino County Sheriff’s Department.
“In a cosmic quest to explore the final frontier on a shoe-string budget, Mike Hughes and Waldo Stakes have built a steam powered rocket that will launch “Mad Mike” 5,000 feet into the air,” said an article on the Science Channel, owned by the Discovery Channel, that has since been updated to confirm Hughes’ death. “As ground-breaking and awe-inspiring as this event will be, it is only the first step towards an even more ambitious goal in space exploration.”
Justin Chapman, a freelance journalist, told the Associated Press that he and his wife witnessed the crash and that the rocket appeared to rub against the launch apparatus which might have torn the parachutes attached
This was not Hughes’ first launch. Hughes, who believed the Earth is flat, propelled himself about 1,875 feet into the air before a hard landing in the Mojave Desert in March of 2018.
“My story really is incredible,” Hughes told the AP at the time. “It’s got a bunch of story lines — the garage-built thing. I’m an older guy. It’s out in the middle of nowhere, plus the Flat Earth. The problem is it brings out all the nuts also, people questioning everything. It’s the downside of all this.
So, doomers and preppers, a lession to be had…enjoy life and follow your bliss….it may just be incredible and makes good press. RIP
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=dDtTSlZ5PIQ
Follow up ..WHy did he do it????
“The Flat Earth thing is like everything else to me,” Hughes told CBS News in October 2018. “I just want people to question everything. Question what your congressman is doing, your city council. Question what really happened during the Civil War. What happened during 9/11.”
At the time, Hughes stated that he built his homemade rocket mostly through, “trial and error,” and admitted, “You don’t get a lot of second chances, though, in the rocket business.”
First published on February 22, 2020 / 11:48 PM
© 2020 CBS Interactive Inc.
like I said, he avoided death via the coronavirus… 😉
RIP
Rest in pieces.
That really cracked me up.
you guys are a blast…
He had previous launches and in one he hurt his back, but launched again and died?! Bright enough to build a working rocket but dim enough to be sure the Earth was flat and not learn from hurting his back?! That’s an interesting combination of a person.
Perhaps Mad Mike knew something we don’t and preferred not to show up at the “End of the World Party” with us die hard preppers. Saw the video of the actual final takeoff (It was actually his third! 3s a charm😘), and no question he did go in pieces instantly.
It’s on YouTube if anyone wishes to see it. A bit unlucky in my eyes from the blastoff.
The parachute did disengage rather quickly and got tangled up. Too bad he didn’t have a backup of some sort.
Well, 64 years old isn’t too bad of a stretch here on the planet…I’ll have to read up more about him, myself. No doubt the rocketship is not salvageable, hit prima firma like a meteor.
Thanks everyone…peatmoss loved the Elton song touch…Mike would have too!
The earth is so enormously big that its roundness seems close to flatness from the standpoint of somebody our size on its surface. We can’t hold it in our hands like a marble or a soccer ball.
So we have a mode of thinking in which we assume it is flat for most practical purposes. This is the mode in which east is east and west is west and the sun, moon and stars rise and set. How many people get up in the morning and say “the earth has rotated to the point at which the sun is starting to shine on the bit of it where I live”? Very few, I would imagine. Most say, “the sun has risen and is slowly lilting its way above the distant hilltops” or something along that line.
It’s only when we try sailing or flying over the horizon and find that we never fall off the edge and eventually come back to the place of origin that we switch to the alternative mode of thinking in which we assume it is round.
Thanks Tim for the explanation, I beginning to understand it all now…just a tiny bit
Tim, the man who first taught that the Earth was round, Pythagoras of Samos, neither sailed nor flew. He simply observed lunar eclipses, and saw that the shadow of the Earth was always a circle. Hence, the Earth is a sphere.
Interestingly, the man who wrote a whole book proving the Earth was flat, the “Topographia Christiana” did indeed sail: all the way to India, hence his nickname Cosmas Indicopleustes. Accordingly, he must have seem for himself the curvature of the Earth, and the slow rising of the Southern stars. In other words, his book was a fraud.
yesterday, I watched a retweeted video of some state assembly somwhere in the neckless backwoods of the USA, where a satanist demanded the same speaking rights as everyone else, which was of course perfectly legal
the assembled christians were shouting him down (of course)
but part of that chorus was very clear:
“he will bring down a curse on all of us”
They are the people of our/your future. For them 500 years of enlightenment simply haven’t taken root. It is as if it never happened.
Come collapse, and the trappings of civilisation are stripped away, we will be back to witchburnings flat-earthing instantly.
We have not moved on from the middle ages, we just imagine the comforts of modern living have taken us into a new era and given us different minds.
They haven’t.
Without the light of modernity, we slip back into a new dark age. As Carl sagan so elegantly put it. There are plenty of people eager to drag us back there.
“The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark”, Carl Sagan, 1995. A wonderful book, and one of the many treasures in my library.
“Global investors are being overly complacent about downside economic risks, aggravated but not limited to the growing impact of coronavirus.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/investors-need-to-face-the-warning-signs-in-the-global-economy.html
Better crank up the fiscal stimulus, says the Head of the OECD:
The coronavirus outbreak presents another reason for nations with fiscal surpluses to boost their spending and support the global economy, the head of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-22/oecd-says-coronavirus-is-another-reason-to-boost-fiscal-stimulus
Meanwhile the rest of the OECD is warning about there already being too much sovereign debt:
“In 2010, in the wake of the global banking crisis, 34 of the world’s richest nations – those that belong to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation & Development (OECD) – ramped up their borrowing to $10.9 trillion. In 2019, the OECD revealed last week, those same governments took their borrowing to a fresh high of $11.4tn.
“The Paris-based thinktank says the new figure is a cause for worry, especially when those same governments have only managed to grow their national economies at a snail’s pace over the past 10 years. Without strong growth, debts become a bigger burden on government finances when things turn nasty, as they did 10 years ago…”
And too much corporate debt:
“And those fears don’t stop at “government debt. The OECD has spent the past couple of years warning about the colossal sums that corporations have borrowed.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/23/borrowing-remarkably-easy-world-carrying-trillions-debt-oecd
If there is nothing on the shelves for people to buy, what do people do with this money?
Sometimes, life is comedy and one must laugh. Its beans, beans all they way down just like turtles.
Dennis L.
Go Germany! By tons of baked beans! Or whatever Germans like to eat when locked-down.
This is all reading like delusional nonsense.
One rubs one’s eyes in disbelief.
“With much of China’s economy still idled as authorities try to contain an epidemic that has infected more than 75,000 people, millions of companies across the country are in a race against the clock to stay afloat.
“While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good.
““If China fails to contain the virus in the first quarter, I expect a vast number of small businesses would go under,” said Lv Changshun, an analyst at Beijing Zhonghe Yingtai Management Consultant Co.”
https://www.msn.com/en-xl/money/topstories/millions-of-chinese-firms-face-collapse-if-banks-dont-act-fast/ar-BB10hSRY?li=AAFNcqt
“Barclays Capital economist Jian Chang said Friday that her weekly guesstimates on China economic data suggest that manufacturing activity contracted by at least 55% versus a year ago in the first three weeks of February due to lockdowns and travel restrictions.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/22/coronavirus-impact-china-has-fallen-into-bizarro-world/#29a03962edde
I am sure this varies by the part of China. And she says “at least” 55%.
China may -may – restore production (frankly I doubt it) as the rest of the world approaches peak coronavirus contagion and people are stuck at home, and not really in the mood to consume – threat of demise tends to concentrate the mind on other things.
I wonder when we will start hearing about big debt defaults.
I missed this a few days ago:
“The Cass Freight Index [USA] fell again in January, reporting the highest year-over-year declines of this freight cycle.
“The shipments component of the index fell 9.4% year-over-year, the biggest one-month decline since October 2009.”
[NB The phase-one trade deal for China was signed on Jan 15th and the coronavirus had yet to have a material impact on the global economy, so this reading is surprising and a worry for the US, especially on top of the contraction we saw in services in Jan].
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/january-brings-accelerated-declines-for-cass-freight-volumes-and-rates
“The first major sign of the damage the viral outbreak is causing to the U.S. economy came last week from a survey of business executives. IHS Markit said its barometer of business conditions turned negative in February for the first time in four years…
““The coronavirus is rapidly slowing the momentum of the global economy and sucking the oxygen out of financial markets,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/businesses-get-bigger-butterflies-over-coronavirus-and-thats-not-good-for-the-economy-2020-02-22
Did it ever have any momentum? Really?
The index was quite low in December as well.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/flat-earther-daredevil-killed-california-042503074.html
flat-earther avoids death from coronavirus…
How to Protect Yourself from Covid-19 (Coronavirus)
Covid-19 (coronavirus) is quickly becoming a global pandemic. We all have a personal responsibility to stay as healthy as possible. If I stay healthy, you have a greater chance of avoiding the coronavirus (and other illnesses). The virus needs us to spread it. So don’t do the virus any favours. There are things you can do to slow its spread.
https://dumbwealth.com/how-to-protect-yourself-from-covid-19-coronavirus/
we’ve got things mixed up about what is healthy or unhealthy
viruses and other forms of micro life are there to make sure the planet stays healthy, not the make it unhealthy
their job is to knock off those who are unhealthy or past their useby date, or control the disgusting habits whereby humannkind threatens everything else. (living too close together, and usurping animal habitats)
Not a pleasant thought, but that’s the way things are. The genaral flu death average is about 80000 a year, this is just a minor outbreak,
We fight against it because we can, and only then because we have access to fossil fuelled industrial systems
Ive tried to say it here, for what its worth:
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/bugs-rule-ok-55d15d8ca66e
I am afraid you are right.
A healthy ecosystem has no interest at all in flattering the organisms which are part of it.
‘Considering our time is so short, we should be day’s men, not tomorrow’s men’.
This is a great quote, Xabier. Is it your own creation, or someone else’s?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
South Korea was 31 cases on about Tuesday and now 556…
Italy was 21 cases yesterday and 62 this morning and now 79… and 18 out of 79 are listed as serious/critical…
Iran is interesting with 6 deaths out of 29 cases… perhaps their actual cases are many times higher than 29…
this is not quasi flu…
You may have missed my previous comment about the information which Dr Campbell has direct from physicians in Iran: in 6 cities already, very rapid deterioration of patients -very serious situation indeed.
These people are not East Asians. They often are elderly, however.
I suspect the idea that it’s only a great threat to East Asians will prove unfounded.
Ok, so people that had the virus and were counted as recovered are better, correct? Well, apparently not all of them according to the following video. Many are released because they meet the arbitrary standards set for being counted as recovered, yet still exhibit symptoms or get sick again a few days later.
This virus reminds me of an original Star Trek episode with actress Kim Darby that has a virus which attacks adults only. Seem Spock and Dr.Bones were able to develop a vaccine in a short time. The title of the piece was MIRI, the name given to Kim Darby.
Also a young Michael J Pollard was featured, who recently passed away in November 2019.
I rate this one one of the top five in the original series.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jZBylfO9ZCU
The landing party, except for Spock, notice purple lesions on their bodies; Miri tells them that these are the first signs of the disease and they will soon become like the other adults. The party find a medical research laboratory and look through documents for clues to the disease, and discover that it is a side effect of a life-extension experiment, affecting those who have reached puberty; death follows a brief period of violent madness. The “children” are over 300 years old, aging one month every century.
Spock learns that when the disease begins, its victims have seven days to live. Although he is apparently immune, he considers himself a carrier who could infect the Enterprise if he returned…from wilkipedia
Of course, the vaccine was effective!
I can sort of understand why China might discharge patients as soon as possible (or before). They don’t have enough hospital beds to go around. If some people are sort of getting better, they can free up beds by discharging some of the people who are getting better. For most illnesses, ten days is a long time to be in a hospital bed. I am sure that China likes to increase the number of “recovered” discharges, even if the people aren’t really well.
One of the downsides is that When patients are let out before they are well, I expect the discharged patients are capable of giving germs to others.
US hospitals discharge patients quickly, partly because there is a problem of catching diseases in hospitals. In the case of these patients, they might catch secondary infections from other patients, if they stay in the hospital.
DR Campbells analysis is that there will be less than 1% of the ICU beds or even oxygen systems needed based on his experience of the average hospitals facilities for a given population. In the west. This doesnt sound like much fun even with those facilities without them…
I can believe that there will be only a tiny share of needed ICU beds. I hadn’t guessed 1%, but I am sure it is low.
Other beds will be way too low as well, and ability to isolate medical staff is inadequate. They will catch the virus also.
They are doing what they can and staff are giving their lives to help patients; they can do no more. I am the optimist, there is always a tomorrow, but this does seem to becoming serious.
Dennis L.
Always keep the next sunrise in mind!
A bit difficult in the English winter, of course, but this will be hitting us in the Spring and Summer.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/14/Oxygen-therapy-working-for-coronavirus-patient-Seoul-says/6651581696794/?rc_fifo=4
This only talks about one patient being helped by oxygen. Oxygen does help some patients.
As I understand it, if you are in the 20% or so who present dangerous symptoms, oxygen is usually necessary in addition to drugs.
That sounds right.
I just listened to the whole 2 hours of Dr Campbell’s Q & A on the virus. Lots of useful information for those who have the time to listen to it themselves, but most importantly…
Estimated timeline for spread:
1/Establishment of serious community infection nearly everywhere( ie no need to visit Wuhan, I know you were dying to 🙂 – over the next month or so.
2/ Likely peak of contagion – June/July.
3/ At least 60% of the population will be exposed. Children will be excellent ‘super-spreaders’,as on the whole it appears they will mostly not feel sick or even have any symptoms at all.
4/ Good idea to get thermometer and oximeter to monitor your condition at home.
Only way to limit exposure and give yourself the best chance – apart from excellent hygiene – is to self-isolate as much as possible starting NOW. Avoid public toilets.
Well thats pretty good news from a guy that is not pulling his punches. If children are not messed up by this thing Then I am happy.
“Avoid public toilets.”
maybe avoid public “anything”…
some good advice there, but…
it must be incredibly small odds to get this virus now, if a person lives in an area where there are no reported cases…
I bet odds are better to get hit by a car etc at this point in time in uninfected areas…
but as the good Dr. points out, by June/July the odds will be against us…
so perhaps BAU now with public events, restaurants etc…
while keeping eyes and ears attentive to any news of the virus closing in on the area where each of us live…
didn’t see this coming in 2020, did we?
Does he give a reason for peak contagion? Is that when the exponential function pulls in the most new people with the disease? After too many get the disease, a smaller and smaller share of the population will get the disease.
I was calculating that it doesn’t take many months (say, six or eight months) before a large share of the world’s population gets the virus, given how fast it seemed to be spreading in China.
Its really a well spent two hours.. Albeit frustrating with some gaps where he is not talking because he doesnt think he is broadcasting / recording. he gives layman explanation of why antibodies can help CV19 not hinder talks about mutations…Actually its pretty optimistic… If it doesnt mutate too much… We are so screwed if it does. But yes i think your spot on. He says covid 19 is not going to be contained and will peak. If this thing comes and goes in 6 months thats a good scenario IMO regardless of casualties.
I have a hard time finding time on week-ends to do more than the bare minimum on OurFiniteWorld.com. Too many family things to attend to.
I will try to get a chance when I can to look at the video.
Gail, this problem was analysed more than a century ago. The rate of infection seems exponential the early stages, when very few people are infected, becomes straight at the 50% mark, and then levels off as the number of uninfected falls to zero (if no immunity) or otherwise to a base level. The simplest way to show this is to plot % infected against time; the result is a curve called an ogive, or “cumulative frequency curve”.
He cited the usual pattern of such epidemics, but emphasised that it is just an educated guess.
He seemed rather disturbed by what he is hearing direct from Iran.
Pony based economy!
You have Questions….World Health Organization has answers…
This China virus is one tuff cookie…
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) advice for the public: Myth busters
Some good information!
Another post claims it was NOT a bioweapon
Scientists debunk coronavirus conspiracy, say it ‘threatens to undermine’ global efforts to stop it
Abby Haglage
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/scientists-debunk-coronavirus-conspiracy-say-it-threatens-to-undermine-global-efforts-to-stop-it-220044983.html
In an open letter published by The Lancet, over two dozen scientists, health experts and epidemiologists dispute a conspiracy theory that the virus is a bioweapon made in a lab near Wuhan, the center of the outbreak. “We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin,” they write. “Scientists from multiple countries have published and analyzed genomes of the causative agent…and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife as have so many other emerging pathogens.
Mother Nature strike BACK!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=j12J3PCai5A
“Scientists from multiple countries have published and analyzed genomes of the causative agent…and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife as have so many other emerging pathogens.”
Thanks for posting that link/information, Herbie. Word is part of the corona virus genome is a segment from the Sars virus, but maybe that’s just nature rolling dice and not human bioengineering. If this is just nature doing its stuff, we better pay better attention to our interaction species like bats.
https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/scientist-scrutinize-new-coronavirus-genome-for-answers-67006
“The virus is somewhat similar to the SARS virus, says Menachery. He points out that almost all of 2019-nCoV’s proteins are the same as SARS’s, but “it does have differences in the key areas that you would expect will influence its ability to infect humans.”
“Menachery says the S2 portion of the spike protein on the coronavirus matches that of the SARS virus, but the S1 region is somewhat different, meaning 2019-nCoV could use a different cell receptor for entry than the SARS virus does.”
If it did occur naturally at the wild animal market, it did so 280 meters from the lab in question that has 600 infected bats. I can see both possibilities, i.e. occurring naturally or bioengineered but I’m not convinced yet that it’s certain which was the source. I think we need more opinions from other scientists.
The third possibility is it occurred in nature and was “acquired” by Chinas biological warfare military propagated and then they screwed up and it got out. Kind of a testimony to the viruses infectious nature by itself. Just because it wasn’t tweaked because they hadnt gotten around to it doesnt mean it didnt come from the lab.
I think that’s a good possibility…
we know that they MUTATE, so it’s no surprise that this “novel” coronavirus has a similar structure to past known ones…
so that Lab had/has plenty of naturally occurring stuff inside its building, and that’s no surprise either, since apparently that’s what they are there to “study”…
did this virus “escape” by intentional means?
or unintentionally by a Lab worker who wandered over to the market for lunch?
someone once said: don’t propose malice for something that could be from stoopidity…
in other words, this started because of stoopidity, though we will never know for sure…
“‘threatens to undermine’ global efforts to stop it”” The people who know the most about the virus may be complicit so we cant talk about that. Every bio weapon ive ever heard about started as natural occurring organism. To make soup you need chicken broth.
“Every bio weapon ive ever heard about started as natural occurring organism. To make soup you need chicken broth.”
I agree, as it’s just too much to come up with the whole virus, so there needs to be something to begin with. The concern I have is part of it is the exact SAME as Sars? Maybe that’s how nature works, maybe not, there’s not enough info. to be sure, but one thing’s clear is scientists are trying to exonerate other scientists at a lab with a history of mishaps and 600 infected bats and somehow this virus has exactly what it needs to attach to human cells and spread via airborne droplets and other unmentionable ways.
As I recall, SARS was also a corona virus. Given that they are grouped in the same family due to sharing some of the same attributes, it would stand to reason that there would be some sharing of DNA. No need to suspect shady laboratory origins on that basis.
Word is part of the corona virus genome is a segment from the Sars virus
Close, but a 2014 Bat virus is 96% similar.
Not a chance.
First documented case was from Dec 1st 2019, way before any contact with the “at the wild animal market, it did so 280 meters from the lab in question that has 600 infected bats”.
Unless time travel was involved, thats impossible.
so a past virus mutated into this “novel” coronavirus…
we know that they mutate…
“First documented case was from Dec 1st 2019, way before any contact with the “at the wild animal market, it did so 280 meters from the lab in question that has 600 infected bats”.
Unless time travel was involved, thats impossible.”
Well with the variable time until onset of symptoms we have no way of knowing what the first case was. Any of the cases could be first case. The first case could still be unidentified. But tell us more about what you believe the first case is and how this went down please. You seem informed. You seem educated. If you are saying it didnt originate in the market … there is only one other place where it could possibly have originated from with any sort of probability. Is it not logical that this thing came from the place that just happens to be the only class4 virus lab in china that was keeping 600 infected bats that just happened to be nearby? Is that really such a stretch?
How could we conspiracy theorists be so stupid. Billions of dollars thrown at engineering bioweapons in level 4 labs all over the place. A lab in Wuhan. The simplest explanation is probably the correct one. Either it is natural or bio lab origin. My guess is the lab was working on variations of Coronavirus, and it infected somebody. Being asymptomatic, and the lab not realizing how infectious it was, it got out. There are historical examples of bugs “leaking” out of labs. Didn’t foot-in-mouth get out of a British lab?
Any system created by man (including bioweapons labs containment) will fail eventually.
I think I made a comment very similar to this elsewhere. Either that, or I put it in a version of a post I didn’t I didn’t put up. (I think it was the latter.)
The CDC in Atlanta has had a lot of problems with mishaps with viruses or bacteria ending up where they don’t belong. It is only a matter of time where any lab, anywhere, will have a mishap of some kinds. The fact that there are no immediate symptoms make it almost impossible to see that the mishaps has had consequences.
Imperial college of london;
“we estimated that about two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide, ”
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news–wuhan-coronavirus/
wow…
it’s not so big a deal that there are hundreds of individuals who have not been added to the official numbers…
it’s huge that they are moving about in their daily activities and infecting thousands unknowingly…
(cough cough)…
And I estimate that two thirds of the flying saucers from Epsilon Eridani have also remained undetected. I counted them myself. Seriously, don’t these people have real jobs to do? How can you estimate what you can’t find, much less count?
Some cases in Kuwait now. US has 13,000 troops in kuwait constantly rotating in and out
Bloomberg reports, China Car Sales Slump 92% in First Half of February on Virus
Asian Traders Bracing for Further Volatility as Virus Spreads
Joanna Ossinger and Ishika Mookerjee
Bloomberg
new phase in the outbreak, and one which will see continued disruption and more economic impact than previously thought.”
The rapid shift in sentiment marks a change from earlier in the month when investors adopted a buy-the-dip mentality as the pace of new cases declined in China. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased about half its virus-related losses from late January in the first two weeks of February.
Now stocks are falling again as infections multiply outside of China and worries are growing the outbreak is entering a concerning next phase. Traders are bracing for more downside and measures of expected price swings are pushing higher.
The Kospi 200 Volatility Index rose as much as 9% Friday to its highest since August, as South Korea reported more coronavirus cases that brought its total past 200. Japanese stocks closed mostly lower, erasing an early advance on yen weakness, and the Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index hit its highest in more than two weeks
It doesn’t help that the concerns are mounting on a Friday, ahead of markets being shut for the weekend — a situation that often makes traders nervous holding open positions because of the chance for potentially negative news to come out. Japan’s markets are also shut on Monday.
“We have seen weekly seasonality recently where people look to cover risk ahead of the weekend to be prudent,” said Damien Loh, chief investment officer at Ensemble Capital Pte in Singapore. “I think this is partly the case.”
Meanwhile, in the heart of the outbreak, Chinese stocks saw modest gains as the number of new infections continued to slow. But it’s still the elephant in the room.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-traders-bracing-further-volatility-083917476.html
We are in a state of surprises….
And Ethiopian airlines are still allowing unrestricted access from China, thereby opening up Africa to this infection as rapidly as possible. One lacks words…..
They have no doubt been assured this is safe by the Director General of the World Health Organisation, who by pure coincidence happens to be an Ethiopian, and who, by an equally pure coincidence, when Ethiopian Minister of Health is scurrilously alleged to have covered up three cholera epidemics.
Yes, that was the rumour against him when his candidature for head of WHO was announced.
Didn’t the hotel owners cover up the cholera outbreak in ‘Death in Venice’, so as not to interfere with the tourist trade?
Ah yes, Thomas Mann’s Der Tod in Venedig, a seminal short novel. It is also based on true events: Mann’s visit to Venice in 1911, his grief over the death of Gustav Mahler, and his infatuation with a 13 year old boy (Władysław Moes). Also saturated with allegory from Antiquity, especially the rivalry between Apollo and Dionysos. Made into an excellent movie starring Dirk Bogarde, with music mostly by (of course) Mahler.
We are the inheritors of three thousand years of history and art. Let us strive not to forget.
In a way Hans Fallada (younger generation) made deeper and more dystopian exploits into some of the pre WWI social commentary of Mann, especially focusing then on the interwar period. Highly recommending Fallada as autobiographical, first hand account, raw bottom trawling human experience..
Thank you, I had quite forgotten about him. But do remember hating his book, Little Man What Now? Also hated his German, but that’s just my pro Habsburg prejudice.
3 u say? Well it would seem his immaculate experience and track record makes well suited for the skill set needed for covid 19. Ethiopia is just ahead of the curve in that their economy is so weak they cant even start quarantine/isolation procedures compared to suspending them for economic reasons later
The latest two posts on the Wuhan virus Youtube by Dr John Campbell should be viewed. And there is a good summary of things at the end of the latest Martenson post.
In the second one, he -Campbell – refers to information which he has direct from Iran, where it is now very bad indeed and in no less than 6 cities – seems it entered through Chinese workers. Physicians are dismayed by the rapid progress of the disease in patients.
He makes rather scathing remarks at the end about the assertion that the UK’s NHS is ‘well-prepared’ ; normally he is very measured and avoids any sensationalism, but his disgust with this bland assurance is patent.
Well, there we are: if we look at the pattern which is developing rapidly now, we face a world pandemic.
Somehow I just knew that redecorating my sitting room wasn’t going to be my most pressing priority in 2020……
Do you have any links to share with respect these videos?
Use “Copy URL”
Display each one on a separate line. Perhaps separate comments too, if that helps band width.
I am not xabier but here they are
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VasccCzr2TY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDhKMZrAbPE
“Somehow I just knew that redecorating my sitting room wasn’t going to be my most pressing priority in 2020……”
I know what you mean, Xabier. My wife last evening said, “Why are we working so hard (on these business projects) if in six months it will be all for naught?” I said, “Because if we don’t and it isn’t a world pandemic that collapses the economy, then we’ll have no money and go into default on our house loan.”
The situation does warrant some serious concern for what’s coming.
Any word on the ground reports from Fast Eddie with Business Associated in Hong Kong!?
Just asking, inquiring minds want to know!😜
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-mdFctlvB3w
Kravitz knew weird stuff when she saw it. Remember she use to prod her husband to come and see what she was seeing and by the time he got there it was gone, so he always thought she was off her rocker. Great show!
I see a kind of ‘lock-down’ is now being tried in N. Italy to limit contagion.
Now, I wonder whether we OFW-ers are about to get Raptured?
After all, we saw this coming, and surely deserve some reward for our devotion and vision.
Your mountain or mine?
Well, given the Italian state is in a state, pun intended, of suspended regime realignment (anti establishment political uprising), so all the institutions are abnormally fragile to begin with.. and the economy ..
My choice would be Der Zauberberg (The Magic Mountain) by Thomas Mann, one of my favourite books. It also became one of my father’s favourite books, after I gave him a copy.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Italy case increase from 21 to 62 in one day…
200%…
they “win” the gold medal for today…
silver medal Iran 18 to 28 so about 55%…
bronze medal Japan from 109 to 134 so about 22%…
I would ask that my reward would be to watch the pandemic run its course over the next few years and I would be unaffected here in my home and town…
but miracles do not exist…
Bedtime reading in a time of pestilence:
https://ruor.uottawa.ca/bitstream/10393/10313/1/MM07840.PDF
Yes, it’s the Ars moriendi.
South Korea daily updates:
31 cases
57
156
346
433
now 433 cases… it’s unknown whether or not those are exact numbers for 24 hour periods…
but 4 days ago it was reported as 31…
is the pandemic now underway?
“is the pandemic now underway?”
It is interesting that as the official numbers for China’s daily increase of infected started to decline (if that’s accurate), it started to take off in other countries.
Pingback: Problemas fácilmente pasados por alto con respecto a COVID-19 | Heaven32
“Global central banks won’t be able to rely on their traditional policy tool of slashing their benchmark interest rates to fight the next recession because rates are already low or negative.
The paper [written by two leading private-sector economists, Michael Feroli of J.P. Morgan Chase, and Catherine Mann of Citigroup and three leading academics, Stephen Cecchetti of Brandeis International Business School, Anil Kashyap of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, and Kermit Schoenholtz of the NYU Stern School of Business] said policymakers should use some mix of tools, including:
• QE, or quantitative easing, which is buying assets and expanding the central bank’s balance sheet to push long-term interest rates down;
• Negative interest rates, to make it expensive for lenders to sit on cash;
• Forward guidance, or telling the market that rates would stay low for a specific period of time so that rates don’t spike at the first sign of a recovery.
• Yield curve control, which extends the maturity of interest rates that the central banks target.
“…In many ways, the recommendations are not contrary to what the Fed has been saying.
“Only last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress he would act aggressively to fight the next recession.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-star-economists-urge-fed-to-use-qe-and-new-tools-to-fight-next-recession-just-move-sooner-and-go-bigger-than-crisis-2020-02-21
“China’s central bank will take further steps to support the virus-hit economy, including releasing more liquidity and lowering funding costs for companies, a vice governor of the bank told state media.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-economy-interestrates/chinas-central-bank-vows-to-take-more-steps-to-support-virus-hit-economy-idUKKCN20G03I
How is anyone (Business or consumer), going to pay this back? I doubt that business margins will be any higher, if the business miraculously gets going again. Citizens who were stretched to pay their mortgages in the past will not have the money to repay amounts lent to cover lost wages for a while.
“Pay this back” ? What is this “pay it back” of which you speak? You must be referring to karmic debt. 🙂
https://www.usdebtclock.org/world-debt-clock.html
We are not there yet, the real fun has not yet started, lot of action will take place during the last tremors of the IC era (among other spectacular happenings):
– (initially selective) debt jubilees
– gov mandates and captures of sectors/industries (triaging out the frivolous)
– naked printing for both state and private securities
– forced redistribution and price fixing
..
.
I see what you are saying
“( initially selective) debt jubilees
– gov mandates and captures of sectors/industries (triaging out the frivolous)
– naked printing for both state and private securities
– forced redistribution and price fixing”
but hasn’t that already happened? Bank bailouts, quantitative easing etc? How do debt jubilees work how is the debt made to disappear? I just can’t wrap my head around at how all this works…without people losing confidence in the system.
Yes, it’s uncanny, but as alluded above we are talking about the very last period of desperate measures and loosing confidence in the system is too broad concept, it could be sequenced and nuanced out a bit, it doesn’t have to be overnight crash.
This parallel is going tiresome I know, but even the more intellectually capable from within noticed the accel. rate of decline of (W)Rome say ~200-360AD, on the latter years if I’m not mistaken even the emperor Julian himself noticed, wrote about the dynamics (+tried too late reforms); many political/religious factions and fiefdoms eating the eff. of the state (~EROEI), unstable partners in meddling, proxy wars and blowbacks etc. And it was definitely all over in just few more decades after..
“Emperor and Galilean”, Henrik Ibsen’s best (and longest) play, is all about the struggle to save the Roman Empire in the 4h century. The Emperor is of course Julian; the Galilean you can guess.
Robert, I recall Henrik Ibsens play, Enemy of the People, in which a Doctor reveals an unwanted truth to the community, the polluted water from their tannery is going to poison the water of the new resort spa development. The town is in disbelief and run him and his family out of town….
Actor Steve McQueen produced a movie that wasn’t well received, his labor of love….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=mSqHEYrRrm8
Seems the Doctor in China that tried to alert the authorities in China faced the same and was persecuted for it…now he’s dead…..
None of those measures can force the hundreds of millions of workers in China who are refusing to risk their lives to produce ‘stuff’ (no matter how important the stuff is) to return to the factories.
The central banks could levitate the numbers on the computers (including the stock indices), and the fools will celebrate their financial acumen and rejoice as their holdings race higher.
But they will crash down to earth when they see the shelves empty at the grocery store and Walmart, and the power has gone off for want of a simple component that is no longer in stock.
Call out when you are ready for salvation. And I will deliver you from darkness.
You’re not the messiah! You’re just a very naughty boy!
there never was a Messiah!
never will be a Messiah!
let’s dial up the naughtiness…
But somehow we have some pretty miraculous self-organizing systems. They have allowed the universe to grow and the development of human civilization. There is some very high level of intelligence or equivalent behind all of the laws of physics, and behind everything that happens on earth.
when can we drop this virus stuff and get back to discussing spent fuel ponds and the need for an international rescue team headed by Vlad Putin?
Unfortunately China can pump away as much as it likes, that won’t get the 300,000 containers per week that are not getting filled with stuff and shipped.
Behind paywall: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/20/dominoes-falling-global-shipping-covid-19-continues-grip-chinas/
Container shipping from Chinese ports has collapsed since the outbreak of coronavirus and has yet to show any sign of recovery, threatening weeks of chaos for manufacturing supply lines and the broader structure of global trade.
Almost half of the planned sailings on the route from Asia to North Europe have been cancelled over the last four weeks. A parallel drama is unfolding on routes from the Pacific Rim to the US and Latin America.
Lars Jensen from SeaIntelligence in Copenhagen said the loss of traffic is running at 300,000 containers a week. This will cause a logistical crunch in Europe in early March even if the epidemic is brought under control quickly.
“The dominoes are toppling through the whole chain. When ships don’t leave port in China, they don’t stop to pick up cargo in Hong Kong, Saigon, or Singapore either. Freight rates are in free fall,” he said.
Refrigerated ships full of frozen food – known as ‘reefers’ – are unable to enter Chinese ports because berths are full and therefore cannot tap into electricity chargers. There is a logjam caused by the critical shortage of dockers and drivers. Meat supplies are spoiling at sea.
The US Agriculture Transportation Commission said the Pacific supply chain has been badly “compromised” and logistical headaches are building up as US ports as well. There will soon be an acute lack of containers in both American and European ports as the finely-tuned regime of world maritime transport goes haywire.
Mr Jensen said European factories are already feeling the shock. “The first to be hit is the auto-industry because it has a very tight supply-chain. Companies are having to airlift in supplies from Asia, which is extraordinarily expensive,” he said.
Fiat Chrysler has suspended production of the Fiat500L in Serbia for lack of audio systems from China.
Jaguar Land Rover said it could last another couple of weeks before component gaps emerged at its UK plants. Chief executive Ralf Speth said JLR is already taking drastic measures. “We have flown parts in suitcases from China to the UK,” he said this week.
Optimists expect China to rebound quickly as virus lockdowns are relaxed but there is little hard evidence of this so far. Nomura’s daily tracking gauge shows barely a flicker of movement on the economic needle.
The Baidu Migration index for 15 cities shows that 74pc of travelers have yet to return from the Lunar New Year holiday, often because they cannot move. Passenger travel on trains is still down 79pc.
The WIND index of new home sales in 30 major cities show sales are down 88pc. This is squeezing over-leveraged property developers. They rely on advance sales to stay afloat and to roll over dollar loans on the Hong Kong funding markets.
Run rates at oil refineries are off by three million barrels a day – enough to alter the global crude balance if it persists – and daily coal consumption is 42pc below normal. Passenger car sales are down 92pc.
Global equity markets are ‘looking through’ the crisis – unlike bond markets – betting on a V-shaped recovery in the second quarter. This assumes that official Chinese data on contagion can be trusted after the testing criteria were loosened again, and given the police state tactics being deployed to silence independent reporting. It is hard to make any meaningful judgement now the Communist Party has launched a propaganda blitz declaring imminent victory.
The sudden jump in Korean cases linked to one church with no particular links to China is a warning of what could be in store as the virus spreads globally. Infectious disease experts say Japan’s decision to let passengers off the Diamond Princess cruise ship without fresh quarantine is courting fate given the high failure rates of the tests. Japan risks an internal epidemic that could ultimately threaten the Olympics.
Kristalina Georgieva, the head of the International Monetary Fund, said she fears a ‘W’-shaped recovery, meaning a short-term bounce based on hopes of containment followed by a second phase as it becomes clear that Covid-19 is spreading around the world after all.
Oxford Economics says a global pandemic would push both the US and the eurozone into outright recession. Europe has no monetary ammunition to fight a downturn.
The Chinese central bank has trimmed loan prime rates to ease pressure but this makes little difference since credit demand is wilting. Far more significant is pressure on banks to evergreen loans to small businesses facing insolvency, as well as moves to waive social security taxes for employers.
Arend Kapetyn from UBS said the credit lever has lost its potency. “Our expectation is that credit stimulus peaks out at about half the level we saw in the three previous slowdowns,” he said.
Yu Yongding, an ex-ratesetter for the People’s Bank, says this crisis is far more serious than the SARS epidemic in 2003. “The Chinese authorities must prepare for the worst,” he wrote in Caixin Magazine.
“The battle against the coronavirus undoubtedly will be very costly, and will reverse some of the recent achievements in reining in financial risks. For now, however, any potential problems related to debt, inflation, or asset bubbles are secondary,”
Fiscal stimulus is coming but the transmission channels will remain blocked as long as the lockdown measures stay in place. But to lift the curfew risks losing control of the virus. China faces an impossible dilemma.
Thanks for the information. It would be nice if you were “The Messiah” and your email address were the one given.
I am afraid this is exactly the problem.
The WSJ had an article outline part of this problem on February 14, which was about a week ago. China’s Shipping Nears a Standstill Amid Coronavirus Disruption
According to it:
CNN also writes about the issue:
Global shipping has been hit by the coronavirus. Now goods are getting stranded
Also, air cargo is affected:
I wonder what pilots think about this arrangement.
“We have flown parts in suitcases from China to the UK, …”
Parts that can remain contaminated with coronavirus for 5 to 8 days? Are these people insane?
https://www.litkicks.com/sites/default/files/boschfools.jpg
Hieronymus Bosch (1510) The Ship of Fools.
Does anybody have new figures on passenger flows, transaction volumes etc. after 02_14_2020? Thanks für your answer. Andreas
I found this article from two days ago, which has data though February 18 for coal use. Analysis: Coronavirus has temporarily reduced China’s CO2 emissions by a quarter It points to Wind Data Service as the source of its numbers.
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2020/02/china-coal-for-electricity-data-through-february-18.png
Thank you, very much appreciated!
Well, there will be some interesting real time data correlating fossil fuel usage to real world economics and outputs. Should make for some interesting debating points for those who want fossil fuel usage reduced to zero immediately. One must be careful what one wishes for, one may get it.
One could hypothesize that CO2 increasing means the virus is being contained, CO2 continuing to decrease means the problem may be persistent.
Dennis L.
So how do they get the virus out of the Aircraft after filling it with virus infected people….. ?
UVC light can kill viruses. One can buy tubes for domestic use. Where are they made? China of course. Better get your skates on!
This discussion is most informative; thank you Gail. One word has, thus far, been largely missing – inflation. If prices rise due to shortages, CBs will wish to increase rates at the same time as trying to ease monetary policy. An awkward combination of desires.
“If prices rise due to shortages, CBs will wish to increase rates at the same time as trying to ease monetary policy. An awkward combination of desires.”
They can still QE, which Powell said they would pursue aggressively in the event of a recession.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-covid-19.html
“Volunteer training for Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics postponed
Organizers for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics have postponed volunteer training that was scheduled to begin Saturday, citing efforts to limit the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. In an online statement, organizers said the training sessions will be postponed until May or later.”
they could postpone the Games until 2021… “or later”…
Staging such large scale international sporting events serves the important function of letting everybody know that BAU is continuing on as normal. They need to hold the Olympics as close to the expected scheduled date as possible.
World Champs indoor T&F is postponed from march until 2021.
Hahahaha…All dressed up and nowhere to go….
China Keeps Churning Out Steel That No One Wants to Buy
Bloomberg News
BloombergFebruary 20, 2020, 3:20 AM EST
nted measures to contain the coronavirus outbreak means there are few buyers of steel, which has sent prices tumbling and put margins under intense pressure. However it’s difficult for most steelmakers in China to cut output drastically because blast furnaces are designed to run constantly, and reducing production to zero is usually a last resort. The result is millions of tons of steel piling up at mills.
“Inventories are at critically high levels,” said Kevin Bai, an analyst at CRU Group. “Most mills are still trying to keep running for now though for technical reasons.”
In China, a small number of steelmakers use electric arc furnaces, or EAFs, that remelt piles of scrap from old cars or torn-down buildings and turn it into fresh steel products. Those can be shut down quickly. The rest of the industry employs blast furnaces, huge and temperamental machines fed round-the-clock with iron ore, coking coal and other ingredients. Shutting those completely is an expensive and complex last resort.
“As far as we know, they’re all still making steel,” Elizabeth Gaines, chief executive of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. said on a call with reporters on Wednesday, referring to the blast-furnace producers that buy her company’s iron ore. EAF mills have largely stopped production already, according to consultancies CRU Group and Kallanish Commodities Ltd.
China is the world’s largest steelmaker and accounts for more than half of global output. The virus crisis has crippled the industry’s supply chains, with the migrant workers that typically staff construction sites or drive trucks unable to return to work due to quarantine measures and movement restrictions. Spot prices for steel rebar have tumbled to the lowest since 2017, while inventories surged to the highest in almost two years as mills struggle to dispatch finished products amid transport problems. Rebar futures were last at 3,460 yuan a ton in Shanghai, down about 3% this year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-keeps-churning-steel-no-045317443.html
Boy. Smells a lot like the SFTF….
Weighed against the alternative to the system if it wasn’t done, could it make sense to distribute free masks to all plane travelers where it is deemed most strategic to do so? Incoming flights to a country wouldn’t allow flights to enter that couldn’t demonstrate that they distributed masks throughout flight?
The problem is that the masks don’t really work. If they do work, they are for sick people to try to reduce the number of viruses they are sharing with those around them.
But does it do any harm?
Maybe, if it gives people a false sense of security, and they think it is OK to intermingle because since they are wearing masks, they will neither transmit it or contract it.
“A pocketful of posies.”
When something is this infectious, a mask is really only a kind of ritual to calm nerves.
Human beings respond to stress, danger and, of course death, with rituals.
Dr John Campbell (UK Specialist) did suggested the masks act as a reminder to not touch your mucus membranes which is where the virus enters the body. His videos are very good, he is having to use strange titles because he is being censored. His other videos are very good which are not related to COVID 19, although he is reporting a few times per day re COVID currently.
http://youtu.be/i0xEbNh8x8U
I think his understand has moved on now though as he is now saying the disease is passed by aerosol which is much more dangerous as it can travel much further. He also doubts the Chinese figures.
I remember reading the view that the primary benefit of the mask is to remind people not to touch their mucus membranes. Of course, if the virus is spread mostly through the air, and the mask is not fine enough to keep the particles out, not touching the mucus membranes plays a very minor role in keeping down transmission. Our understanding keeps changing.
Masks will become like a veil the face exposed only to your intimate partner. China facial recognition technology has already stepped it up to meet the challenge. The east likes its plain monocolor masks. The west will choose multicolor masks.
“A pocketful of posies.”
That’s to cover he smell of decomposing, as in death.
Art,
Look at a surgical suite, surgeons, nurses, assistants, etc. are gowned, gloved, and masked, etc. to protect the patient from nosocoimal infections. Compare this to staff that are treating highly infectious patients and you will have your answer.
Dennis L.
Dennis, I was thinking only of planes, where people are contained in a systematic manner for a predictable length of time. If masks on strategic flights do no physical harm (or particular good) but serve Xabier’s ritualistic purpose, and remind people not to touch their face, isn’t that a plus? Since there is no one thing that works well, isn’t a combination of many things that work a tiny amount preferable to nothing?
They all have a cost involved. Manufacturing these things takes away from manufacturing other things. Only so many things, in total, are affordable.
Hmm. Debt? I can see a feel-good, cheap mask making a lot of people happier about flying on planes. There needs to be a feeling that things are happening in a rational manner, even if they aren’t.
Setting the full hazmat equipment aside, even the proper masks do work (the sub micron grade ones), but the whole global supply chain has not been geared towards their mass production to begin with, there was more production capacity for the ordinary cheap flu/surgical types of masks which are useless (or even dangerous/keeping moisture) against viruses. And again even if you ramp up the production of the more expensive quality disposable mask, you have to exchange them through the shift say every ~4hrs, which even the most posh Chinese hospitals can’t afford to do, perhaps only once per ~12hrs shift and only for some of the “front line” staffer only.. Furthermore with the various “ninja” characteristic of the virus, the medical personnel can get cross-infected easily off duty at the hospital premise or commuting home (obviously not wearing these better masks) etc.
Now, after several weeks they massively increased the production of these masks by order of magnitude, incl. prison labor, perhaps even some army units etc., but the question remains is the increased production capable to catch up or rather stay ahead of the virus at all..
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2020/02/21/china-another-wuhan-doctor-29-dies-of-coronavirus/
“Peng had made headlines in Chinese state media for postponing his wedding to stay in Wuhan and treat patients…”
a 29 year old doctor…
Very sad.
29yrs old but most likely very much physically, emotionally and mentally exhausted already by the point of contracting/developing the disease..
Tear down that statue of Chairman Mao, and replace it with a statue of Dr Peng. He is the true face of China; the China of Lao Tzu and Master K’ung. The China of respect for tradition, of commitment to service, and of loyalty to the traditions of ones ancestors. The China that will rise again.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/02/21/coronavirus-drag-on-u-s-economy-appears-bigger-than-expected/
“The coronavirus outbreak may be taking a heavier toll than expected on businesses in the United States, according to a survey released Friday.
The IHS Markit Flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index dropped to 49.6 in February. That is down from 53.3 in January and below the consensus forecast.
IHS said that overall contraction was driven by the first fall in service sector output in four years.”
since this relates mainly to services, I don’t see a direct connection to the virus…
which actually might foreshadow a bigger problem…
when the product sectors begin to have big losses because of falling Chinese exports, the overall contraction will only get worse…
it’s time for tonight’s episode of Fun With Math:
presented by South Korea…
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
three days ago 31 cases
two days ago 57 cases
one day ago 156 cases
today it’s now 346 cases…
Host: “True or false, is that above or below a 1,000% increase?”
Eddie: “Below! Do I win?”
Host: “Sorry, Eddie, you are wrong.”
Kim: “Above! Do I win?”
Host: “Yes, Kim, you are correct. You win.”
Wow, it is ballooning in SK!
Those numbers are pretty terrible. Makes me wonder what the NK numbers are besides zero of course.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-latest-updates-outbreak.html
US health officials prepare for coronavirus outbreak to become pandemic:
U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday. “We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/asia-markets-coronavirus-oil-currencies-in-focus.html
“China’s Ministry of Commerce said Friday the resumption of work has been rapidly increasing in major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu. Guangdong was the top source of China’s exports by far in 2019…”
major news…
China is increasing the likelihood of a full national epidemic in order to provide us (the rest of the world) with its exports…
a good decision…
This is down near Hong Kong.
I didn’t know that…
so while the epidemic begins its run through the Beijing area in the colder north of China, this would presumably be a warmer region…
though I am skeptical that this virus will be slowed by warmer weather… like when their Winter becomes Spring… Singapore is very warm and it’s spreading there…
though no report of any surge in cases in the south of China… yet…
but they’re going back to work, so soon enough we’ll get reports on the number of new cases there…
Its not warmth that slows the virus its sunlight.
yep, all that jolly good UV radiation..
You are probably correct. We do a whole lot inside today.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-as-coronavirus-concerns-grow.html
“The 30-year Treasury yield plunged to a record low on Friday as the coronavirus outbreak intensified fears about slowing global economic growth and caused investors to crowd into bonds.”
the coronavirus is taking control…
OMG…too funny…the virus taking control….Not if Alexander Haig has any say in the matter..
Back in the day, when things were much simpler and cut and dry…sarcasm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zUKW0fL-OqY
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Coronavirus-clusters-at-Beijing-hospitals-ignite-new-fears
Strangely I find myself cheering for the virus and am quite pleased when I read such articles.
Me too! Found this to put me in the proper frame of mind when reading your article link..Go , China Virus, bring it on…😜
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=P6XB-KXvZJ8
my dear old friend Schadenfreude…
Your anti-human sentiment is growing, thanks to the rise of climate hysteria and animal rights hysteria. It seems to me to be the result of propaganda that has made the coming death of millions “OK” or outright applauded by some. So sad.
Sorry as newborns we have not been consulted on the xy billion world’s pop level – we were just thrown into this state of things. Some people enjoy overpopulation (even deny its existence), others tend to tolerate it or be indifferent to it, and few abhor it with a passion. That’s all.
A factor of 100 de-off would be ideal.
I am not anti human; I am pro Nature. And therefore, I am anti those who have proven themselves the sworn enemies of Nature. If we have rights given by God, so do the other creatures with whom we are asked to share this world. Gaia is a seamless web; we tear it apart at our peril. And if that peril now stands at our door, it is a fate we have richly deserved.
Well spoken!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For the beauty of nature can not be separated from our species either.
For you, peatmoss: a lovely hymn from a vanished age. When and why did we lose our sense of wonder? Whither is fled the visionary gleam?
If you were a battery Hen or a caged pen Veal Calf or a penned in pregnant sow , “Dr. Meg”, probably would be posting a different message. Personally, I am surprised this has not happened a long, long time ago with the factory farming cruelty production of Industrial Agriculture. As a matter of fact, this is probably only the beginning of pandemics we Humans unleash upon ourselves.
What goes around, comes around!😜
Thank you, Herbie. Factory farming is not merely cruel; it is stupid. It breeds disease, and fosters the mutation of disease and hence, in many cases, animal to human transmission. The factory farmers “solve” this problem by continuously feeding the animals antibiotics, which is the principle reason we now face pathogens against which we have no effective remedies.
from your link:
“Beijing reported a total of 395 confirmed COVID-19 cases as of the end of Wednesday.”
okay, I saw where it was 9 cases and then shot up to 45 (500% increase) and now 395?
so 45 to 395 is nearing another 1,000% increase…
“The incident reminded many of Beijing’s painful battle against the 2003 SARS outbreak. The capital, with a population of 21.5 million people, was one of the cities hit hardest by the epidemic, with more than 100 deaths.”
something tells me that this epidemic is going to be far worse in Beijing… and ONLY 21 million people…
“Another doctor at a Beijing public hospital was infected after a visit to Wuhan on Jan. 10. A colleague was confirmed with the infection after sitting beside him at a meeting, according to the briefing.”
(cough cough)…
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/21/asia/novel-coronavirus-covid-19-update-intl-hnk/index.html
“There are an additional 14,000 or so cases outside Hubei province, with the majority in other parts of mainland China.”
and perhaps that number is way under reported…
the 395 cases in Beijing seems to be an accurate report for now…
the increase from 9 to 45 to 395 seems to be over a longer period than just a few days, so the rate of increase is quite lower, though an accurate timeline is difficult to find…
Reply to up comment by Robert and poem by Thomas Hardy.
I need to go back and read Buck’s “The Good Earth” which ironically is about China. The ending of your poem as I understand it is about the love between a man and a woman and their oblivion to the war (WWI I assume) around them.
This world we are so fortunate to inhabit has been around a long time, Xabier has concerns regarding the soil quality remaining, ah, we have had glaciers, they move and mix the soil in many ways, sometimes one needs to move the farm. With luck, Hardy’s man and woman might be able to start again, or if older, perhaps help their children begin anew and thus be both useful and find further happiness.
Dennis L.
See the myth of Ragnarrok and the regeneration of the gods, parts of the earth,(not the whole) and mankind after the cataclysm.
This is a link describing the myth of Ragnarok: https://norse-mythology.org/tales/ragnarok/
Ragnarok is the cataclysmic destruction of the cosmos and everything in it – even the gods. When Norse mythology is considered as a chronological set of tales, the story of Ragnarok naturally comes at the very end. This version of the story linked above does not seem to talk about regeneration, however.
This seems to be one version of the regeneration story. https://bavipower.com/blogs/bavipower-viking-blog/ragnarok-twilight-of-gods
Someone else may know of better links.
Couldn’t there be several versions of ragnarök?
The one in Sturlasons Edda with a new world with one man and one woman was written ~1200, long after christianity.
Agree, Dennis. The rich farmland of Northern Europe was created by the glaciers. Rich farmland in some other places, such as Sicily, was created by volcanos. I remember visiting the Sicilian plain, “that fair field of Enna”, and found it just as Milton described. (Paradise Lost, Book IV line 268)
Life is more than resilient; it has learned how to profit from adversity and turn it into plenty. It seems we prefer to turn plenty into adversity.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDj6xlpcvpA
That’s a good video about Corona Virus; a plane landed in Turkey was turned away, and a bus load of passengers in Ukraine was rumored to have 5 people on board with the virus and a riot formed. Situation in South Korea gets worse.
Im sure everyone has seen this. ZH kicked permanently off twitter for it which gives it some credibility to my mind.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
I think I saw this before, but it is interesting to look at it again.
I started to put something about the possibility of the virus being something that escaped from a lab, but decided not to “go there” in this article.
Discussion about the possibility of this particular origin seems to be censored. The zh article has some interesting facts. You are wise to avoid this topic IMO but it is also good to be informed. The origin doesnt matter as much as the situation. Twitter didnt want the article going “viral”. HAH. 🙂
Wise: you might get demonised as a ‘fake news conspiracy-theorist’ and attract most unwelcome attention.
Zero hedge gone from Twitter, Chris Martenson gone from Wikipedia, the old pattern of shoot the messenger is alive and well.
Only those in charge are allowed to know the real situation. I wonder how many billionaires have moved to their bunkers for a holiday. Perhaps this virus is the real reason they built them in the years since SARS.
Conspiracy? No, possibly just logical thinking about an overcrowded world.
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Are we seeing and understanding this?
Socially if this is true, along with the windpower fantasy, we are putting ourselves into corners.
Africa is having a heck of a problem with locusts and farming. I know, it is overreach, too much stress on the system, but they are people; I am pessimistic that being a hunter gather is much fun, indeed I suspect it is almost constant warfare.
https://www.europeanscientist.com/en/features/europes-anti-science-plague-descends-on-africa/
In the US the week link will be the farmers themselves, there are too few, it is too efficient. Lose a farmer and his family in my case over 1000 acres does not get planted, harvested. There is no backup labor pool, the countrysides are bare of people, the lights have literally gone out as evidence. There are many examples on Youtube of families running 3500 acres, often with a father and two sons along with the occasional hired man, many of whom are “mature.” Lose a few, just one from each family and things don’t get planted on time, yields go down. It is not only economics, it is eating. Socially, I don’t see many women physically farming they tend the house and family, that is a very important role, the days can be long and a good meal goes a long way, a smile doesn’t hurt either. But the heavy, dirty work that goes with a farm, it belongs to the men, a very small group of men. Should they get sick, it all stops; they work through minor aches, ills, etc., but not through a virus. It takes a very strong, cohesive group with resilience
I don’t think it is the material aspect which will bring things down, it may be the social organization of our times. Economics is people centric, without people it is ecology which self organizes very well, even through an occasional asteroid hitting earth.
No one saw this virus coming, perhaps it is not the virus which will be a issue, it is the social disorganization that results from it, there are too few nodes in the network.
We have a great many policy wonks, sitting around oval tables with bottles of water(plastic no less) thinking great thoughts, abstract thoughts with no comprehension how those ideas work in the real world. Their ideas do not work with wind, solar, I strongly doubt they work with food. We have had so many years of plenty, we have forgotten times of want. If the virus in China spreads to the farms, then there will be very serious issues, the factories may not open for some time.
Dennis L.
Here in the UK many farm workers are contract workers from Eastern Europe: and the government has just said it will send all of them back, not needed – only ‘high-value’ immigrants wanted.
What is higher in value than getting the harvests in, I wonder?
I did once see one pretty and rather small lady driving a very big tractor, but they are mostly men it is true in the age of big machines.
Farming has become so efficient it is no longer resilient: in the only quite recent past, even if the master of a farm died, the male and female hired workers could have got the harvest in, and so on.
Now, what value has all that big machinery if vital spare parts are not available from China, or if logistics collapse?
Well, the real situation is more like that uninterrupted fossil energy inputs into farmland had created a monster of dead astroturf substrate layer to grow things on. If you cut these inputs it will all just fall apart, food shortage ensues. The only solution is to bring people back to work and live on the land with corresponding relatively small leveraged output, i.e. available surplus. Obviously, there is whole nexus of political-socioeconomic arguments why this is not desirable (also as preemptive measure), it will come only out of desperate urgency and necessity, unfortunately. Yet, the know how is out there, if applied we could easily land on some re-mix of 16-19th century living standards, which could be acceptable. But instead sudden shock therapy will push it way down to way earlier epoch easily..
300 yr ago about 98% of workers were land-related in some way
now 2% are
that is the painful arithmetic we must work out
Yes, and if only 10% of that 2% become incapable of work, it is a problem that is still multiplied by 49, machines don’t run themselves, it takes time to learn how they work, where to lubricate them on a daily basis so they do not fail.
We assume dirt is dirt but a single farm when mapped for yields exhibits considerable variation. Mike Bloomberg was wrong about making a hole in the ground, first there needs to be a knowledge of what and where to make the holes and what to put in them. Even historically there were most likely variations in seeds, what works best where. We have technology which makes it easier although there is a tremendous amount of data to analyze and employ. Recall, the feudal lords kept the peasants home to work the farms, the nobles did the noble thing and took a horse riding into fame and glory, or was it gory?
Farming is and has been just in time, every twelve months stores run out or very low, miss one year and things become very challenging, very quickly.
Farming is not less people intensive, it is much more skill set intensive, the skills are concentrated in a very small group of people, it is a localized group of people who learn to understand their soils, their climate, their markets, their seeds, their inputs. If livestock are involved they become veterinarians, lose a calf and mom really is a cost until another calf comes along, or she becomes a steak. If a calf is born in a field at night, the farmer may well go out, put the calf over his shoulders and bring it to someplace warm, it is money for necessities. Do this for forty years and the back hurts. Large feeding operations work well, but we are seeing a great many virus issues with animals, birds, pigs, etc. It is possible we will not see the real issue come until perhaps sixty days before as with the corona virus and December 1, 2019 give or take a few days.
With manufacturing, we did not see the disruption coming, we are less than 90 days into it and most of the major manufacturing center of the world is closed with incredible efforts underway to deal with the issue. Were it not very serious, a nation would not be virtually shut down, it appears Korea may have similar issues.
I read widely, maybe some of you saw this coming, predicted, etc., but it seems to me that this one came out of the blue, it was not the machines, it was not the oil, copper, iron, etc., it was the people, something has gone wrong in a very major way and I don’t think we really understand the underlying issues.
Dennis L.
Even people who write about collapse didn’t have epidemics near the top of their concerns. I know I didn’t. If we would have a problem, I was thinking it would be because our antibiotics didn’t work any more. But viruses are a problem, too.
Dennis, there was indeed someone who saw this coming: Thomas Hardy.
Only a man harrowing clods
In a slow silent walk
With an old horse that stumbles and nods
Half asleep as they stalk.
Only thin smoke without flame
From the heaps of couch-grass;
Yet this will go onward the same
Though Dynasties pass.
Yonder a maid and her wight
Come whispering by:
War’s annals will cloud into night
Ere their story die.
For me, at least, a message of hope.
Only a man harrowing clods
In a slow silent walk
With an old horse that stumbles and nods
Half asleep as they stalk.
Talking about the Great British worker again, I see.
Pandemics have occasionally been mentioned here, but really there is nothing one can usefully say about them until they hit. Unquantifiable.
Oddly, the idea was much on my mind last summer, for some reason.
We don’t have the organization or skills to go to 16-19th century living standards, I am afraid.
However it works out, women will need to have more children and men will be more valued for the physical strength. This will mean big changes from what “modern” society today values.
It will take some time for our species to adapt. More brawn less brains. I look at the kind of labor being performed 100 years ago… I know some tough dudes loggers miners. I dont think they could perform that labor. Me I run a chainsaw for 4 hours and Im done. 🙂
True: stamina comes from doing tough work with only hand-tools from a young age – it;s very different to ‘gym-fit’.
I have just the same build as the Basque mountain loggers in the old photos, but could I do it? No way!
They just exude toughness and endurance in every limb.
Their old motto was ‘A man should be like a stone’; and the proverb’ Good times are good, but just bloody well get on with the bad ones!’
Not the sayings that come from easy lives…..
Tough learning curve. Very tough. Perhaos we could enter a “no species left behind” program . 🙂
We don’t have the stamina.
For women to have more children they will have to marry younger and more of them have to do so.
I’ve often viewed the valuation of so-called ‘prime agricultural land’ in the UK with some reserve, as we know how much it has in fact been degraded since WW2 and the advent of poisoned industrialised farming: sterile, compacted, eroding and productive only with a flow of external inputs.
There is certainly a strong belief in the perpetual capacity of the UK to import sufficient food if it is rich enough -sheer delusion for which a heavy penalty will be paid one day, and maybe not so distant.
I saw an article today saying the opposite is happening today in the US. From the WSJ:
Trump Administration Plans to Raise Seasonal-Worker Cap
Additional 45,000 guest workers will be allowed to return to U.S. this summer
The announcement may be a little premature, however. The article reports:
Seasonal Mexican workers are some tough people. Their endurance is right up there with military personal. The border is getting sealed and workers come in legally under h2bs. Wheres the problem?
“Trump Administration Plans to Raise Seasonal-Worker Cap
Additional 45,000 guest workers will be allowed to return to U.S. this summer”
I wonder if that’s because fewer migrants are making it through the border and farmers need them to work the fields. Hard work no one else wants.
The article talks about “fact-free claims pushed by activist pushing political agendas.” I think practically every debate is filled with these fact-free claims. The argument in this article is about which, if any, pesticide to use in Africa. Local people really cannot afford these pesticides. I was struck by these paragraphs:
We have a huge issue of overshoot everywhere. Dumping more chemicals on (including copper-based chemicals) sort of temporarily fixes the problem. Whether the chemical is a “modern pesticide” or long-standing one, there are problems involved.
Have a look at this, Gail:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/18/uk-to-close-door-to-non-english-speakers-and-unskilled-workers
Advantages, disadvantages, in your view?
How about closing the door to suicide bombers, knife slashing fanatics, and gang rapers of underage girls? But of course, that would not be “politically correct” What part of “Salus populi suprema lex” does Her Majesty’s government not understand?
“How about closing the door to suicide bombers, knife slashing fanatics, and gang rapers of underage girls?”
Agreed. Hear, hear!
On the plus side:
If the UK has a high unemployment rate, it offers the possibility of more availability of jobs requiring low skills. These jobs will probably continue to pay badly, however. (The “worth” to employers of these jobs is not very high.)
Unemployment rate likely to fall.
On the minus side:
Some jobs may go unfilled: Crops may not be picked; elderly may have fewer caretakers. The country may lack fishermen and builders.
Structure of UK workforce will go even more toward high-priced services and away from low-paid work, whether service or basic production of food.
UK economy will become even less able to continue on its own, without imports of many kinds.
Workers will focus on every more complex (and unsustainable) solutions to problems, with more STEM scientist looking at pie-in-the-sky solutions.
These new workers will not have many babies. Will likely not fix the baby shortage problem. Population will fall, making it hard to fund retirement benefits for elderly.
Gail, the UK has an unbelievably low unemployment rate and the highest employment rate ever. It’s currently a job creating machine. The problem with importing cheap labour is that it does not help the current workforce, particularly the low pay, low skilled. Rather it helps the corporations, the tax man and those with capital who wish to buy services.
The Polish building workers, though are not cheap, just reasonable, and work much harder than the Brits who are masters of slow-motion.
Moreover, the government plan is to allow EU building workers in, if they are contracted to…..corporate employers!
Sheer nonsense.
Polish workers do not work harder than UK workers. Its just that the hard working Brits are doing something else of more value.
I disagree, based on observation. You seem to have little idea of reality.
Plumbing, electrical work, repairing a roof, etc, are all very high value jobs – guess, what life is like if they are not done…..
I have no time at all for the sort of people who despise skilled manual workers.
Yes crops haven’t been picked in 2019 already. So what, no more cider in English pubs?
Millions of apples left to rot in UK as Brexit uncertainty worsens EU fruit picker shortage
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-no-deal-fruit-picking-apples-national-farmers-union-eu-workers-harvest-a9163781.html
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/11/tonnes-of-crops-left-to-rot-as-farms-struggle-to-recruit-eu-workers
A
A problem entirely of Britain’s own creation. The local workforce has been utterly demotivated by two things: welfare, and trade unions. The former makes it easy not to work; the latter make it easy (and in some trades imperative) to do as little work as possible. Abolish both, and the work ethic that got us through WWII will come back quite quickly. But of course that is “unthinkable”, because the intelligentsia, the academics, and the utterly treacherous mass media will scream like stuck pigs, from the safety of their closed gardens.
By the way, I find Maltese workers excellent. Just hire a local firm, close the deal with a handshake, and pay cash on the nail. That way, we both avoid the corrupt bureaucracy and its over regulation, and can keep above us the umbrella of a mostly free market.
Absolute nonsense. You don’t have full employment in a country of demotivated work shy workers. What you are highlighting (and is assuming the norm) are simply the ‘dregs’ of society who are not actually employable.
Thank you, John, and I believe we are on the same side. The UK counts as unemployed those who are looking for work but have not found any. It does not count those who are not looking, for instance because they would rather sponge off welfare. And I agree that many of those who do not work are pretty much unemployable. In some cases because they belong to a culture that is hostile to any kind of work ethic.
In the US, with low minimum wages that vary somewhat by state, there are people who have tried to get a job in the past, but have found the jobs they can get do not provide enough “net benefit.” The hours are too short, and come at inconvenient and frequently changing times. There are extra expenses that need to be considered, such as the cost of commuting (with no public transportation), the cost of special clothing, and the cost of child care or elder care that the would-be worker formerly was providing. With contract jobs, there may be no workers’ compensation, so if there is an injury, it is the worker’s problem.
I don’t blame them for dropping out of the job market.
There are also handicapped people who cannot even find volunteer work to do.
The Polish workers I employed -all excellent and very polite, I almost had to force them to take breaks -told me that they had been persecuted by British builders, who would phone the building regulators and claim that the Poles were ‘breaking the rules and dangerous’!
Some people just don’t like honest competition.
The UK is currently in full employment, but with stagnated wages for most, and poor productivity.
The Eastern European workers above all, but also those from the whole of the EU, have been very valuable, skilled and good workers, completely essential in some sectors. In the building sector, they provided competition for over-charging and greedy UK building workers,who can be incredibly arrogant and often very difficult to hire, above all for smaller jobs.
You are correct in that the UK government wants to make it a high-skilled, high-wage economy with greater productivity.
Pretty much divorced from reality and, as you correctly point out, making it even more of a services-dependent economy lacking resilience.
And while kicking out the decent Europeans, we get to keep the African and Asian criminal gangs and ghettos full of educational failures – who will not be ‘up-skilling’, but have the highest birth-rate in the country. Smart move….
There will always be a rest group of lazy, extremely fat or sick people who will not or cannot work and it is almost impossible for a 56 year old (Danish, English, German ..) woman to compete with a 28 year old Romanian girl who furthermore finds the servicejob at the hotel well paid and quite easy to fulfill perfectly. There is nothing you can do to a young man or women who prefers to enjoy life with beers and drugs. And there is nothing you can do to convince hardcore followers of islam that they are obliged to do their work share in the country which they have honored with their present. Some Germans speak of Bevölkerungsaustausch – it is absolutely a no go theme right now but will eventually expand from a tiny minority to a much broader segment of European countries. But there is really nothing you can do.
“Air France-KLM, Qantas, and the global container shipping company Maersk have become the latest businesses to warn about the financial impact from the spread of coronavirus.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/20/coronavirus-hit-airline-shipping-industry-china-flights
“Flight cancellations caused by the coronavirus outbreak will likely lead the global air transport industry to shrink for the first time since the global financial crisis of 2008 and 2009, a trade group warned.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/iata-airlines-warn-coronavirus-recession-shrink-2020-2?r=US&IR=T
“Container shipping from Chinese ports has collapsed since the outbreak of coronavirus and has yet to show any sign of recovery, threatening weeks of chaos for manufacturing supply lines and the broader structure of global trade.
“Almost half of the planned sailings on the route from Asia to North Europe have been cancelled over the last four weeks. A parallel drama is unfolding on routes from the Pacific Rim to the US and Latin America.
“Lars Jensen from SeaIntelligence in Copenhagen said the loss of traffic is running at 300,000 containers a week. This will cause a logistical crunch in Europe in early March even if the epidemic is brought under control quickly.
““The dominoes are toppling through the whole chain…”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/20/dominoes-falling-global-shipping-covid-19-continues-grip-chinas/
I can believe the airline industry will shrink. According to the article:
I expect that the reduction in demand will be even more than 8.2%.