We would like to think that we can eliminate COVID-19, but doing so is far from certain. The medical system has not been successful in eliminating HIV/AIDS or influenza; the situation with COVID-19 may be similar.
We are discovering that people with COVID-19 are extremely hard to identify because a significant share of infections are very mild or completely without symptoms. Testing everyone to find the huge number of hidden cases cannot possibly work worldwide. As long as there is hidden COVID-19 elsewhere in the world, the benefit of identifying everyone with the illness in a particular area is limited. The disease simply bounces back, as soon as there is a reduction in containment efforts.
Figure 1. One-week average new confirmed COVID-19 cases in Israel, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Chart made using data as of August 8, 2020 using an Interactive Visualization available at https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/ based on Johns Hopkins University CSSE database.
We are also discovering that efforts to contain what is essentially a hidden illness are very damaging to the world economy. Shutdowns in particular lead to many unemployed people and riots. Social distancing requirements can make investments unprofitable. Cutting off air flights leads to a huge loss of tourism and leaves farmers with the problem of how to get their fruit and vegetable crops picked without migrant workers. If COVID-19 is very widespread, contact tracing simply becomes an exercise in frustration.
Trying to identify the many asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 is surprisingly difficult. The cost is far higher than the cost of the testing devices.
At some point, we need to start lowering expectations regarding what can be done. The economy can protect a few members, but not everyone. Instead, emphasis should be on strengthening people’s immune systems. Surprisingly, there seems to be quite a bit that can be done. Higher vitamin D levels seem to be associated with fewer and less severe cases. Better diet, with more fruits and vegetables, is also likely to be helpful from an immunity point of view. Strangely enough, more close social contacts may also be helpful.
In the remainder of this post, I will explain a few pieces of the COVID-19 problem, together with my ideas for modifications to our current strategy.
Recent News About COVID-19 Has Been Disturbingly Bad
It is becoming increasingly clear that COVID-19 is likely to be here for quite some time. The World Health Organization’s director recently warned, “. . . there’s no silver bullet at the moment and there might never be.” A recent Wall Street Journal article is titled, “Early Coronavirus Vaccine Supplies Likely Won’t Be Enough for Everyone at High Risk.” This article relates only to US citizens at high risk. Needless to say, creating enough vaccine for both high and low risk individuals, around the world, is a long way away.
We are also hearing that vaccines may be far less than 100% effective; 50% effective would be considered sufficient at this time. Two doses are likely to be needed; in fact, elderly patients may need three doses. The vaccine may not work for obese individuals. We don’t yet know how long immunity from the vaccines will last; a new round of injections may be needed each year.
A new report confirms that asymptomatic patients with COVID-19 are indeed able to spread the disease to others.
Furthermore, the financial sector is increasingly struggling with the adverse impact shutdowns are having on the economy. If it becomes necessary to completely “write off” the tourism industry, economies around the world will struggle with permanent job loss and debt defaults.
Shutdowns Don’t Work for Businesses and the Financial System
There are many issues involved:
(a) Shutdowns tend to lead to huge job loss. Riots follow, as soon as people have a chance to express their unhappiness with the situation.
(b) If countries stop importing migrant workers, there is likely to be a major loss of fruits and vegetables that farmers have planted. No matter how much money is printed, it does not replace these lost fruits and vegetables.
(c) Manufacturing supply lines don’t work if raw materials and parts are not available when needed. Because of this, a shutdown in one part of the world tends to have a ripple effect around the world.
(d) Social distancing requirements for businesses are problematic because they lead to less efficient use of available space. Businesses can serve fewer customers, so total revenue is likely to fall. Employees may need to be laid off. Fixed costs, such as debt, become more difficult to pay, making defaults more likely.
Shutdowns cause a major problem for the economy, because, with many people out of the workforce, the total amount of finished goods and services produced by the economy falls. Broken supply lines and reduced efficiency tend to make the problem worse. World GDP is the total amount of goods and services produced. Thus, by definition, total world GDP is reduced by shutdowns.
Governments can institute benefit programs for citizens to try to redistribute what goods and services are available, but this will not fix the underlying problem of many fewer goods and services actually being produced. Citizens will find that some shelves in stores are empty, and that many airline seats are unavailable. They will find that some goods are still unaffordable, even with government subsidies.
Governments can try to give loans to businesses to help them through the financial problems caused by new rules, such as social distancing, but it is doubtful this approach will lead to new investment. For example, if social distancing requirements mean that new buildings and vehicles can only be used in an inefficient manner, there will be little incentive for businesses to invest in new buildings and vehicles, even if low-interest loans are available.
Furthermore, even if there might be opportunities for new, more efficient businesses to be added, the subsidization of old inefficient businesses operating at far below capacity will tend to crowd out these new businesses.
People of Many Ages Soon Become Unhappy with Shutdowns
Young people expect hands-on learning experiences at universities. They also expect to be able to meet possible future marriage partners in social settings. They become increasingly unhappy, as shutdowns drag on.
The elderly need to be protected from COVID-19, but they also need to be able to see their families. Without social interaction, their overall health tends to decline.
We Are Kidding Ourselves if We Think a Vaccine Will Make the Worldwide COVID-19 Problem Disappear
Finding a vaccine that works for 100% of the world’s population seems extremely unlikely. Even if we do find a vaccine or drug treatment that works, being able to extend this solution to poor countries around the world is likely to be a slow process.
If we look back historically, pretty much all of the improvement in the US crude death rate (number of deaths divided by total population) has come from conquering infectious diseases.
Figure 2. Crude mortality rates in the United States in chart from Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality in the United States During the 20th Century, Armstrong et al., JAMA, 1999.
The catch is that since 1960, there hasn’t been an improvement in infectious disease mortality in the United States, according to an article in the Journal of the American Medical Society. As progress has been made on some longstanding diseases such as hepatitis, new infectious diseases such as HIV/AIDS have arisen. Also, the biggest category of infectious disease remaining is “influenza and pneumonia,” and little progress has been made in reducing its death rate in the United States. Figure 3 shows one chart from the article.
Figure 3. Mortality due to influenza or HIV/AIDS, in chart from Infectious Disease Mortality Trends in the United States, 1980-2014 by Hansen et al., JAMA, 2016.
With respect to HIV/AIDS, it took from the early 1980s until 1997 to start to get the mortality rate down through drugs. A suitable vaccine has not yet been created.
Furthermore, even when the US was able to reduce the mortality from HIV/AIDS, this ability did not immediately spread to poor areas of the world, such as Sub-Saharan Africa. In Figure 4, we can see the bulge in Sub-Saharan Africa’s crude death rates (where HIV/AIDS was prevalent), relative to death rates in India, where HIV/AIDS was less of a problem.
Figure 4. Crude death rates for Sub-Saharan Africa, India, the United States, and the World from 1960 through 2018, based on World Bank data.
While the medical system was able to start reducing the mortality of HIV/AIDS in the United States about 1996-1997 (Figure 3, above), a 2016 article says that it was still very prevalent in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2013. Major issues included difficulty patients had in traveling to health care sites and a lack of trained personnel to administer the medication. We can expect these issues to continue if a vaccine is developed for COVID-19, especially if the new vaccine requires more than one injection, every year.
Another example is polio. A vaccine for polio was developed in 1955; the disease was eliminated in the US and other high income countries in about the next 25 years. The disease has still not been eliminated worldwide, however. Poor countries tend to use an oral form of the vaccine that can be easily administered by anyone. The problem with this oral vaccine is that it uses live viruses which themselves can cause outbreaks of polio. Cases not caused by the vaccine are still found in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
These examples suggest that even if a vaccine or fairly effective treatment for COVID-19 is discovered, we are kidding ourselves if we think the treatment will quickly transfer around the world. To transfer around the world, it will need to be extremely inexpensive and easy to administer. Even with these characteristics, the eradication of COVID-19 is likely to take a decade or more, unless the virus somehow disappears on its own.
The fact that COVID-19 transmits easily by people who show no symptoms means that even if COVID-19 is eradicated from the high-income world, it can return from the developing world, unless a large share of people in these advanced countries are immune to the disease. We seem to be far from that situation now. Perhaps this will change in a few years, but we cannot count on widespread immunity any time soon.
Containment Efforts for a Disease with Many Hidden Carriers Is Likely to Be Vastly More Expensive than One in Which Infected People Are Easily Identifiable
It is easy to misunderstand how expensive finding the many asymptomatic carriers of a disease is. The cost is far higher than the cost of the tests themselves, because the situation is quite different. If people have serious symptoms, they will want to stay home. They will want to give out the names of others, if they can see that doing so might prevent someone else from catching a serious illness.
We have the opposite situation, if we are trying to find people without symptoms, who might infect others. We need to:
- Identify all of these people who feel well but might infect others.
- Persuade these people who feel well to stay away from work or other activities.
- Somehow compensate these people for lost wages and perhaps extra living expenses, while they are in quarantine.
- Pay for all of the tests to find these individuals.
- Convince these well individuals to name those whom they have had contact with (often their friends), so that they can be tested and perhaps quarantined as well.
Perhaps a few draconian governments, such as China, can handle these problems by fiat, and not really compensate workers for being unable to work. In other countries, all of these costs are likely to be a problem. Because of inadequate compensation, exclusion from work is not likely to be well received. Quarantined people will not want to report which friends they have seen recently, if the friends are likely also to lose wages. In poor countries, the loss of income may mean the loss of the ability to feed a person’s family.
Another issue is that “quick tests” are likely to be used for contact tracing, since “PCR tests,” which tend to be more accurate, often require a week or more for laboratory processing. Unfortunately, quick tests for COVID-19 are not very accurate. (Also a CNN report.) If there are a lot of “false positives,” many people may be needlessly taken out of work. If there are a lot of “false negatives,” all of this testing will still miss a lot of carriers of COVID-19.
A Major Benefit of Rising Energy Consumption Seems to Be Better Control Over Infectious Diseases and a Falling Crude Death Rate
I often write about how the world’s self-organizing economy works. The growth in the world’s energy consumption since the advent of fossil fuels has been extremely important.
Figure 5. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, together with BP Statistical Data on 1965 and subsequent
The growth in world energy consumption coincided with a virtual explosion in human population.
Figure 6. World Population Growth Through History. Chart by SUSPS.
One of the ways that fossil fuel energy is helpful for population growth is through drugs to fight epidemics. Another way is by making modern sanitation easy. A third way is by ramping up food supplies, so that more people can be fed.
Economic shutdowns lead to reduced energy consumption, partly because energy prices tend to fall too low for producers. They cut back on production because of unprofitability.
Figure 7. Weekly average spot oil prices for Brent, based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.
Given this connection between energy supply and population, we should not be surprised if shutdowns tend to lead to an overall falling world population, even if COVID-19 by itself is expected to have a small mortality rate (perhaps 1% of those infected). Poor countries, especially, will find that laid off workers cannot afford adequate food supplies. This makes poor members of those economies more susceptible to diseases of many kinds and to starvation.
Epidemiologists Based Their Models on Diseases Which Are Easily Identifiable and Have High Mortality Rates
It is clear that an easily identifiable illness with a high mortality rate can be easily contained. A difficult-to-identify disease, which has a very low mortality rate for many segments of the population, is very different. Members of segments of the population who usually get only a light case of the disease are likely to become more and more unhappy as containment efforts drag on. Models based on very different types of pandemics are likely to be misleading.
We Need to Somehow Change Course
The message that has been disseminated has been, “With containment efforts plus vaccine, we can stop this disease.” In fact, this is unlikely for the foreseeable future. Continuing in the same direction that has not been working is a lot like banging one’s head against a wall. It cannot be expected to work.
Somehow, expectations need to be lowered regarding what containment efforts can do. The economy can perhaps protect a few high-risk people, but it cannot protect everyone. Unless COVID-19 stops by itself, a significant share of the world’s population can be expected to catch COVID-19. In fact, some people may get the disease multiple times over their lifetimes.
If we are forced to live with some level of COVID-19 (just as we are forced to live with some level of forest fires), we need to make this situation as painless as possible. For example,
- We need to find ways to make COVID-19 as asymptomatic as possible by easy changes to diet and lifestyle.
- We also need to find inexpensive treatments, especially ones that can be used outside of a hospital setting.
- We need to keep the world economy operating as best as possible, if we want to stay away from a world population crash for as long as possible.
We cannot continue to post articles which seem to say that a spike in COVID-19 cases is necessarily “bad.” It is simply the way the situation has to be, if we don’t really have an effective way of containing the coronavirus. The fact that young adults build up immunity, at least for a while, needs to be viewed as a plus.
Some Ideas Regarding Looking at the Situation Differently
(1) The Vitamin D Issue
There has been little publicity about the fact that people with higher vitamin D levels seem to have lighter cases of COVID-19. In fact, whole nations with higher vitamin D levels seem to have lower levels of deaths. Vitamin D strengthens the immune system. Sunlight raises vitamin D levels; fish liver oils and the flesh of fatty fishes also raise vitamin D levels.
Figure 8 shows cumulative deaths per million in a few low and high vitamin D level areas. The death rates are strikingly lower in the high vitamin D level countries.
Figure 8. COVID-19 deaths per million as of August 8, 2020 for selected countries, based on data from Johns Hopkins CSSE database.
The vitamin D issue may explain why dark skinned people (such as those from Southeast Asia and Africa) tend to get more severe cases of COVID-19 when they move to a low sunlight area such as the UK. Skin color is an adaptation to different levels of the sun’s rays in different parts of the world. People with darker skin color have more melanin in their skin. This makes the production of vitamin D less efficient, since equatorial regions receive more sunlight. The larger amount of melanin works well when dark-skinned people live in equatorial regions, but less well away from the equator. Vitamin D supplements might mitigate this difference.
It should be noted that the benefit of sunlight and vitamin D in protecting the immune system has long been known, especially with respect to flu-like diseases. In fact, the use of sunlight seems to have been helpful in mitigating the effects of the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918-1919, over 100 years ago!
One concern might be whether increased sunlight raises the risk of melanoma, a deadly form of skin cancer. I have not researched this extensively, but a 2016 study indicates that that sensible sun exposure, without getting sunburn, may decrease a person’s risk of melanoma, as well as provide protection against many other types of diseases. Non-melanoma skin cancers may increase, but the mortality risk of these skin cancers is very low. On balance, the study concludes that the public should be advised to work on getting blood levels of at least 30 ng/ml.
(2) Other Issues
Clearly, better health in general is helpful. Eating a diet with a lot of fruits and vegetables is helpful, as is getting plenty of exercise and sunshine. Losing weight will be helpful for many.
Having social contact with other people tends to be helpful for longevity in general. In fact, several studies indicate that church-goers tend to have better longevity than others. Churchgoers and those with many social contacts would seem to have more contact with microbes than others.
A recent article says, Common colds train the immune system to recognize COVID-19. Social distancing tends to eliminate common colds as well as COVID-19. Quite possibly social distancing is counterproductive, in terms of disease severity. Epidemiologists have likely never considered this issue, since they tend to consider only very brief social distancing requirements.
A person wonders how well the immune systems of elderly people who have been cut off from sharing microbes with others for months will work. Will these people now die when exposed to even very minor illnesses? Perhaps a slow transition is needed to bring families back into closer contact with their loved ones.
People’s immune systems can protect them from small influxes of viruses causing COVID-19, but not from large influxes of these viruses. Masks tend to protect against large influxes of the virus, and thus protect the wearer to a surprising extent. Models suggest that clear face shields also provide a considerable amount of this benefit. People with a high risk of very severe illness may want to wear both of these devices in settings they consider risky. Such a combination might protect them fairly well, even if others are not wearing masks.
Conclusions – What We Really Should Be Doing
Back at the time we first became aware of COVID-19, following the recommendations of epidemiologists probably made sense. Now that more information is unfolding, our approach to COVID-19 needs to change.
I have already laid out many of the things I think need to be done. One area that has been severely overlooked is raising vitamin D levels. This is being discussed in the medical literature, but it doesn’t seem to get into the popular press. Even though the connection is not 100% proven, and there are many details to be worked out, it would seem like people should start raising their vitamin D levels. There seems to be little problem with overdosing on vitamin D, except that sunburns are not good. Until we know more, a level of 30 ng/ml (equivalent to 75 nmol/L) might be a reasonable level to aim for. This is a little above the mean vitamin D level of Norway, Finland, and Denmark.
Social distancing requirements probably need to be phased out. A concern might be temporarily excessive patient loads for hospitals. Large group meetings may need to be limited for a time, until this problem can be overcome.
Boy, ain’t that something!??
The Independent
Minneapolis police officer Thomas Lane didn’t check George Floyd’s ‘counterfeit’ $20 note
Justin Vallejo
August 21, 2020, 1:59 PM EDT
The alleged counterfeit $20 bill used by George Floyd wasn’t inspected or collected before his fatal arrest in Minneapolis, according to one of the first officers at the scene.
Former police officer Thomas Lane said in newly-released audio that he didn’t obtain the bill before, during or after the incident that led to Mr Floyd’s death on 25 May.
In response to questioning by the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, Mr Lane said that he didn’t look at the alleged $20 forgery being held by the Cup Foods worker identifying Mr Floyd.
“We were more concerned with a least attaining that person on suspicion of passing a counterfeit bill and then figuring out the validity of the bill,” Mr Lane can be heard in the audio recording.
When asked if the bill was later collected, Mr Lane said: “I think it was. I’m not sure.”
The alleged counterfeit $20 bill used by George Floyd wasn’t inspected or collected before his fatal arrest in Minneapolis, according to one of the first officers at the scene.
Former police officer Thomas Lane said in newly-released audio that he didn’t obtain the bill before, during or after the incident that led to Mr Floyd’s death on 25 May.
In response to questioning by the Minnesota Bureau of Criminal Apprehension, Mr Lane said that he didn’t look at the alleged $20 forgery being held by the Cup Foods worker identifying Mr Floyd.
“We were more concerned with a least attaining that person on suspicion of passing a counterfeit bill and then figuring out the validity of the bill,” Mr Lane can be heard in the audio recording.
When asked if the bill was later collected, Mr Lane said: “I think it was. I’m not sure.”
And took 3 in half minutes to begin CPR after the EMTs came to his aid!😳
All on video.
Should be an interesting trial to say the least
Do you think the George Floyd scene was a piece of street theater, Herbie?
No, !ore like a Public Tragedy in Ancient Greece.
The counterfeiting occasioned the call, but Floyd was incapable of driving safely, so an intervention was still in order.
Phew, things can all return to normal then.
This what the Financial District in SF looks like, courtesy of Wolf Richter. One word to describe his pics…”scary”.
https://wolfstreet.com/2020/08/22/haunting-photos-of-san-franciscos-desolate-financial-district-during-morning-rush-hour-visual-effects-of-working-from-home/
On the latest Kunstlercast, Jim pointed out that the usually-high rents for downtown retail spaces subsidize the rest of the building (he was talking about condos, but I assume it’s similar for offices). As with most of the other enterprises we’ve talked about, a 10% hit is enough to knock them out.. forget about 25% or 50%. Even if the retail were open, it can only survive off of local workers in addition to residents.
Good point!
Wow! It is empty there. A person wonders if it can ever come back to its former glory.
That is scary. I was there last year and it was always bumper to bumper traffic.
March this year I borrowed a book from Aberdeen Central Library, which I believe has remained closed since then. On Monday I checked online to see if / when it would open. Aberdeen is currently approaching end of week three of a new lockdown.
Nonetheless, it was possible to return books, but you had to book a time, which was odd because according to the website, the returns trolley was near the entrance / exit. Moreover, if you were a few minutes too late or early, you would not be allowed to leave any books. Even odder, almost no-one goes to the library any more.
I arrived pretty close to my scheduled time, 10 am, to find that the returns trolley was outside the library by the main door, and as it was raining if the wind changed direction, the few books there would get wet.
So I walked up, confirmed with the librarian behind a desk, she inside, me outside, that what looked like a returns trolley was the returns trolley and put my book in. She asked me if I was Mr so and so, which I was, clearly I was the only person who booked for that time and quite possibly for the whole day. What would have been really odd is that if I was not MR so and so, or I arrived too late or too early, I would not have been allowed to leave my book.
Really? I book a slot and arrive on time, therefore my book is virus-free, otherwise the book might contain a single virus molecule that will mutate into a 100% deadly form, transmit to the librarian, who will pass it on to the other librarians, then librarians’ friends and families, then the whole of Aberdeen, then the UK, and then the whole world? Good thing I arrived on time, otherwise we might all be toast by now, which of course would be no bad thing for the rest of life on Earth.
The book was called ‘Microbes and Man’ (1969), a rather dry review of viruses and bacteria.
Needless to say, I think officialdom attitude towards the virus here in the UK is beyond bonkers.
I think it is becoming a case of
silly rules being brought out as a result of fear of the unknown how do you cope in this new reality one technique you could use is to act dimwitted when returning the book to the librarian .
Had the same experience here regarding returning some license plates to the road authorities for a vehicle I was getting rid of. Had to book an appointment a week(!) in advance, when I got there an employee unlocked the front door and I told her about my situation, she said to just put the plates in a bin behind the building…
Leaving the books out in the rain cleanses them of the virus.
Yes, “beyond bonkers”.
I’m coming to view life in the UK as one big Monty Python sketch.
I know that some people here don’t like articles from dodgy right-wing (or left-wing) MSM sites like the Daily Mail (UK) and the equivalent in the USA, but there is no MSM site that produces more propaganda than the UK’s BBC. The articles I post from there usually are to emphasise the propaganda content of the BBC’s news items.
This article is from yesterday’s Daily Mail, and well worth a read, it is pro-Sweden re Covid-19 (almost unheard of the in UK MSM media):
“No lockdown, no masks, no hysteria… NO PROBLEM: Sweden didn’t go into a corona coma – and it’s living in glorious normality. Now DOMINIC SANDBROOK asks: Is this proof we got it all terribly wrong?”
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-8652523/No-lockdown-no-hysteria-DOMINIC-SANDBROOK-asks-Sweden-proof-got-terribly-wrong.html?ito=amp_twitter_share-top
We know that the MSM in the US is riddled with CIA (I’m lookin’ at you, Anderson Cooper) and is a disinformation vehicle almost in the absolute. I can’t imagine the UK’s state media organ not running the same script.
What??? Come on Lidia…. float back on down to earth …. I think you can find the Qanon room just down the hall on your left!!🤣
This one is dedicated to Anderson Cooper.
I’m predicting that Lidia will “Get” it but it will float way over Dan’s head.
https://youtu.be/4WM_R-6AKHE
We are certainly the targets for some rather crude propaganda – above all about Russia – but not just from the BBC.
The Guardian, which claims, ludicrously, to be free from all control by governments and oligarchs, publishes just as much of it.
The hands of the ‘intelligence’ agencies are all over everything. Two of my tutors at University, at least, were MI6 appointees. One of them was always in the media as a distinguished academic expert on this and that relating to global politics. Nor do they conceal their links if you are in the club as it were.
Totalitarianism, but without uniforms and parades.
Durwood,
“Social distance will continue to have a direct correlation with the number of viral and bacterial infections a person has in their lives and their costs in time and resources.”
Maybe, this idea is similar to the sanitizing craze, we do not live in a bubble, not all “bugs” are harmful, we adapt, well, some adapt.
Look at a photograph of a train station in early 20th century America, look at photographs of the early 1950’s an compare them to any group now. Mostly physical health has gone down, not up.
I was in clinical practice, I did not get flu shots as they were not required, in large settings where they were the rational was not protection of the provider, it was prevention of spread to the population. To me this leads to a large segment of the population made vulnerable by no exposure to pathogens. Polio came from the increase in cleanliness after WWII, this is generally accepted and can be verified online with multiple sources. I am elderly(I can build my own computers and program in several languages, speak for yourself) and do not get nor have I ever received a flu shot; my attitude is the body will fight its own battles, learn from each one and be ready for the next.
We are focusing on the absolute worst outcomes from Covid, not every one goes through that. Bugs are ubiquitous, they always will be, we can’t hide much longer, indeed we may have already shut down the economy in which case Covid will look trivial.
Dennis L.
I agree with your view that the sanitizing craze is easy to overdo. Our immune system seems to be built around having experience with one pathogen and then another. There are good bacteria and bad bacteria. Perhaps there are good fungi and bad fungi, and good viruses and bad viruses. The population gradually adapts to the pathogens that are around.
Also, we can dump all kinds of additives on the soil, or we can let the natural mix of bacteria/fungi/viruses that allow plants to get nutrients from the soil help heal the soil in a natural way. Dumping all kinds of sanitizing solutions on the soil is definitely harmful.
Back before people understood that sanitation was important for childbirth, deaths following childbirth were very high. But once that was figured out, early deaths went way down. There are a few places where sanitation helps, but it is easily overdone.
Gail, While your good intentions are never in doubt, I think you are way oversimplifying the basis of some of your opinions:
The current PCR test for nCV-19 is taking a week to two weeks (closer to two weeks in my experience) to get results – which is essentially producing confirmations after infection symptoms are obvious and well after further infections have been transferred to the uninfected – especially by the 40+% of asymptomatic nCV-19 carriers. Any test that takes more than 24hrs. for results is questionable in its impact on limiting the spread of nCV-19.
The quick test (paper test strip) which can have up to 25% false positives can effectively pull the infected out of circulation immediately. It will stop them from boarding planes, cruise ships and perhaps even entering public places. The 25% false positives are just the price of stopping the virus in its tracks from spreading. It also decreases the burden on the more accurate PCR testing. (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cheap-and-fast-screening-tests-could-be-a-game-changer-in-fighting-covid-19-pandemic-11597421622) and (https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200818/even-with-misses-rapid-tests-could-help-stop-covid).
The article on Common colds train the immune system is equally simplistic and misleading. Of the 15 or so virus that cause the common cold – several are corona virus. The similarity in those virus to the current nCV-19 (Novel Corona Virus of 2019) is what produces some immunity in those that have experienced them – recently.
Your take on social distancing is simply wrong. The psychological effects between social interaction digital compared to face to face interactions are insignificant – compared to the risk of infection thru face-to-face interactions. The elderly which tend to be less technically oriented – fare worse from the absence of face-to-face social distancing – simply because they fail to adapt to less infective forms of social interactions – i.e. digital. Even then those with severe psychological impacts from lack of face-to-face interactions is a rather small percentage of the elderly population.
Social distance (the avg. distance people subconsciously take for a face to face conversation – in the US was about 3 feet prior to nCV-19). We now have confirmation on the positive impact of increased social distancing on limiting viral infections – cold, flu, and or nCV-18 and they are becoming obvious. Data is now coming in from countries in the southern hemisphere that have now had their cold and flu season infections wherein they were some of the lowest (almost non-existent) that those countries have ever recorded. Which probably speaks more to increased social distancing (6 ft. for static interactions and 30+ feet for physical activities) and improved sanitation habits (frequent hand washing, conscious efforts to prevent hand – face contact, and avoiding touching public surfaces) than it does to any immunity relationships between those respective virus.
The idea of phasing out social distancing (increased social distance for face-to-face interactions) is an obvious return to the same conditions that produced such high nCV-19 and previous cold and flu infections in the past. Social distance will continue to have a direct correlation with the number of viral and bacterial infections a person has in their lives and their costs in time and resources. Let’s think twice about phasing out social distancing practices. Look at the cold and flu cases chart in the following article during current social distancing practices compared to immediate past years. (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/how-will-covid-19-affect-coming-flu-season-scientists-struggle-clues#)
The PCR test is too accurate, expensive, and time consuming for our current needs.
A less expensive test with immediate results (which is available), done repeatedly, is a strategy that works.
Too accurate? When it can yield 100% false positives or 100% false negatives depending on how many rounds are arbitrarily run?
PCR is incredibly accurate, too accurate.
It will detect in the hundreds, while we are not infectious until the millions.
And reliable.
It is a waste of time on this virus.
Something cheap and fast is needed.
Google Dr. Michael Mina, Harvard Public Health on the virtues of CHEAP ($1), SELF-ADMINISTERED, SELF-EVALUATED, IMMEDIATE RESULTS, but not so accurate testing strategy. These exist but FDA roadblocks are in the way. With this strategy, everyone just tests him/herself every day, and stay inside if positive (infectious). No need for contact tracing. Do this for a few weeks and it’s all gone. Why is not everyone on board with this?
Duncan, when you say “too accurate”, do you mean “too precise”?
My understanding which may be wrong, is that PCR tests give a precise result (rather than a rough or vague one) in that the results of a series of PCR tests on a given will be very close to each other, but at the same time can be totally inaccurate (as in how close the measurements or results are to the “true” value) in ascertaining if somebody is carrying a viral load capable of causing illness.
Tim, I agree with you. The tests are repeatable, in the sense that doing them again will give the same result. The problem is they detect bits of virus, but they cannot tell which virus the bits came from, so the doctors simply guess: he is sneezing, he has a bit of virus => the flu. He is coughing, he has a bit of virus => covid.
Rather like digging up a couple of fossil bones and claiming “Look, Piltdown Man!”
We are dealing with a rapidly changing subject. The state of the art last week is not the state of the art this week.
One of the issues I pointed out is that the real cost of false results (or even correct results) from testing is the fact that people who feel perfectly well are removed from the workforce or from attending classes. These people need to be paid for their lost wages. This doesn’t change, regardless of how the testing is done.
The concern I had with social distancing had to do with people in nursing homes being kept from seeing their families. This may not be a problem everywhere. Perhaps this should not be called “Social distancing.” It is more isolation of the elderly, and the need to phase out isolation of the elderly. Isolation can be carried to extremes. Rapid tests should be used to screen workers in nursing homes, and other people who stop by at irregular intervals, such as inspectors. I agree that traditions of kissing on the cheek and hugging tend to spread illnesses.
We need to move away from the idea that suppressing all illness is our goal. Our immune system depends on meeting a steady supply of pathogens. With respect to COVID, we probably need to be working toward herd immunity. The people who are most important to get immunity are the ones most likely to spread the illness. Young adults are important in this regard. Chris Martenson talks a little about this in his video:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/up-to-50-of-us-may-be-pre-immune-to-covid-19/
Cold and flu did not shut down economies. Neither would covid have shut down economies, until a fake medical “scientist” (partly funded by communist China) created a wholly unnecessary panic. Social distancing will not prevent a single infection; it will merely delay them. That is how pandemics have always worked; the only effective defence is the immune system, and the only way to help the immune system is to expose it to similar pathogens until it has learned to fight them.
But surely we must save Grandma and Grandpa? I’m a grandpa, four times over, and no, I would not save my own life at the cost of millions of lives lost by an unnecessary and avoidable economic collapse.
It is easy to make fun of people, engaging in ad hominem attacks; it is not very productive.
From ZeroHedge:
“Then there was the inside/outside confusion. First everyone was forced indoors and people were arrested for being outdoors. Later, once restaurants started opening, people were not allowed indoors so eating establishments scrambled to make outdoor dining possible. Are we supposed to believe that the virus lived outside for a while but then later moved inside?
Or these curfews. So many places have them despite a complete absence of evidence that COVID spread prefers the night to the day. I guess the real point is to put a stop to revelry that might bring people together in a fun way? It’s like all our governments decided on the same day that COVID spreads through smiles and fun, so we have to banish both.
In Sydney and Los Angeles, and also in Detroit and Miami, you need to wear a mask when you walk in a restaurant but not when you sit. And this 6-foot rule is highly suspect too. It seems to imply that if you get too close to each other, COVID spontaneously appears. At least people seem to believe that.”
https://www.aier.org/article/governments-are-faking-it-and-copying-each-other/
Basically it seems we don’t really know what will work, it is back to the middle ages and various superstitions which may or may not have some basis in fact.
As I mentioned earlier, this is what the practice of medicine has been for a long time, try it and see if it works. Snark, imagine Fauci in the late 30’s, penicillin came along and no double blind studies. He would be right, it would kill some people, use too much and the gut flora goes away, die of diarrhea. Now that is a s…ty way to die.
Dennis L.
Perhaps the short hours were to limit the pain businesses would face, if they didn’t have many customers. If they had few customers, they wouldn’t need many hours to serve them.
There has been a very interesting development in the testing arena. As has been clearly stated a number of times and even by the Inventor of the PCR test it is not s diagnostic test.
Unfortunately most the diagnosis is being done using PCR ““Kary Mullis… is thoroughly convinced that HIV is not the cause of AIDS. With regard to the viral-load tests, which attempt to use PCR for counting viruses, Mullis has stated: ‘Quantitative PCR is an oxymoron.’ PCR is intended to identify substances qualitatively, but by its very nature is unsuited for estimating numbers. Although there is a common misimpression that the viral-load tests actually count the number of viruses in the blood, these tests cannot detect free, infectious viruses at all; they can only detect proteins that are
believed, in some cases wrongly, to be unique to HIV. The tests can detect genetic sequences
of viruses, but not viruses themselves.” – Jon Rappoport’s Blog. There were also reports in the – OffGuardian- PCR Tests are Scientifically Meaningless.
Now it has just been shown that this is in fact true and the WHO protocol actually detects a sequence common to all humans. From Principia Scientific – Independent researcher, Steve Kelly, has identified that the UN World Health Organization (WHO)
is using a COVID-19 testing protocol that will, in effect, give a positive reading of coronavirus
simply from a common sequence of human DNA we all possess.- link here. https://principia-scientific.com/farce-un-pcr-test-reads-any-human-dna-as-covid19-positive/.
These tests have essentially being used by unscrupulous people and the industrial medical complex to convince Governments to support the agenda of the even more unscrupulous WHO agenda.
It is hard to tell where lack of understanding ends and unscrupulousness sets in. Too much modeling was done in advance, assuming the new virus would be like something in the past. People thought that they knew more than they really knew. This led to a lot of poor decision making.
And a lot of good decision making too. Taiwan springs to mind. 🇹🇼
There are no easy, painless solutions, someone is going to be hurt. Politically in the US we are facing many issues, among them the one regarding Covid-19. From what I see this is the practice of medicine, try something and if it works often enough it becomes a standard of care.
Politically:
“I would shut it down. I would listen to the scientists,” Biden told “ABC World News Tonight” anchor David Muir in a clip released Friday ahead of a full interview to be aired Sunday.
This again could be seen as a generational issue, my generation is old, vulnerable, hanging on. It might be observed that certain ethnic groups are also vulnerable.
I personally know no one with the disease, I do know two families who have suffered more than 50% reductions in income secondary to lock downs, and decline in economic activity. They are good people, good citizens, the concern in their mind is beginning to show on their faces.
I think we are in the reset, the system is reorganizing and will not consult us nor will it care.
Dennis L.
“In 2019, the Elliott Wave Financial Forecast addressed various “cracks” in the credit structure. Even as unemployment hit its lowest level in 50 years, auto, student, credit card and mortgage default rates edged higher.
“By September of last year, EWFF concluded that “the dawn of the next Great Depression, to be led by a fall in property prices, is very much at hand. There is no avoiding it now.” With global unemployment rates skyrocketing to the highest rates “since the Great Depression,” it makes sense to stick with what seemed inevitable last September…
“The next Great Depression is here.”
https://www.deflation.com/articles/the-next-great-depression-is-here
Well said Harry…I read a National Geographic article titled the end of oil in 2000 which then got me on track of reading the “Oil Drum” , Then I followed Stonleigh or Nicole Foss for a while then to Our Finite world. So I am by no means new to the game. I think one of the difficult things in this is to be able to mentally prepare for this for me I want to know when it is coming. I live in an area that all the “city” people are coming to and raising housing prices so the people around me are all bragging how much their property values are going up. Not to mention how fast they will come down when the problems that all these people have brought will be….people are not allowed to feel pain anymore everyone only thinks about themselves these days.
Dan,
You are not alone, maybe the greatest issue mentally is coping with loss – loss of a lifetime spent in accumulating surplus which declines in value.
Housing prices are going up here as well, no benefit to the owners unless they liquidate, increased value leads to increased taxes which is a cash flow cost, not a wealth issue. Becoming wealthy is expensive.
“…people are not allowed to feel pain anymore everyone only thinks about themselves these days.” I strongly believe we must be part of a group, individuals fail, or no man is an island.
Dennis L.
No man is an Iland, intire of itselfe; every man
is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine;
if a Clod bee washed away by the Sea, Europe
is the lesse, as well as if a Promontorie were, as
well as if a Manor of thy friends or of thine
owne were; any mans death diminishes me,
because I am involved in Mankinde;
And therefore never send to know for whom
the bell tolls; It tolls for thee.
MEDITATION XVII
Devotions upon Emergent Occasions
John Donne
As a Roman put it:
”For you must leave your house, and estate, and pleasing wife…..and someone else will drink the old wines you put by with with such care.’
Or as a Persian put it:
Lo! some we loved, the loveliest and the best
That Time and Fate of all their Vintage prest,
Have drunk their Cup a Round or two before,
And one by one crept silently to Rest.
And we, that now make merry in the Room
They left, and Summer dresses in new Bloom,
Ourselves must we beneath the Couch of Earth
Descend, ourselves to make a Couch—for whom?
In that day the Lord God of hosts
called for weeping and mourning,
for baldness and wearing sackcloth;
13 and behold, joy and gladness,
killing oxen and slaughtering sheep,
eating flesh and drinking wine.
“Let us eat and drink,
for tomorrow we die.”
14 The Lord of hosts has revealed himself in my ears:
“Surely this iniquity will not be atoned for you until you die,”
says the Lord God
Harry,
Way back when I looked at EW theory, couldn’t understand it, couldn’t make the rules work, never saw it work and there were others who had the same experience. With prejudice, I put it up there with Nietzsche, a great deal of hand waving and elegant circular arguments, a narrative which works as long as the data points are carefully chosen.
Some property prices have fallen, home prices in the US have not, car prices are rising especially for used cars. In the midst of the oil crisis Bass as I recall looked at all the empty office buildings in Houston or some such city in Texas and purchased them, the rest is history. Gail thinks the grid will fail, if it does working from home will not work, back to the office grind, back to office buildings.
A good guess we are in the reset.
Dennis, if the grid fails, there will be no office buildings being used after the fact.
Simple answer, you are right of course.
Dennis L.
The Library of Alexandria had an office building attached, with room for over 100 scholars. It was in one of them that Eratosthenes of Cyrene worked out how to measure the size of the Earth.
I also never understood Elliott Wave Theory. Supposedly, this Ralph Elliott analysed price movements to identify fractal patterns, in the 1930s when the very word “fractal would not be coined until 1975. And although reasonably familiar with the wrk of Bolzano and Riemann, I never saw anything remotely fractal in Elliott. A fractal is nowhere differentiable, but Elliott’s “waves” certainly are; indeed his formulas cannot generate anything else, except at a small number of inflection points inserted by hand. I suspect this “theory” is economists pretending to understand mathematics.
The Elliott Wave folks say that the next Great Depression is “to be led by a fall in property prices.” I expect that they are correct.
“Millions of laid-off Americans are now trying to pay for housing, put food on the table and pay other expenses only on state unemployment benefits — a weekly cut of at least half in every state.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/22/politics/unemployment-benefits-states-congress-covid/index.html
“The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the way we shop for food. More of us are eating at home, and more of us are out of work and struggling to find ways to pay for necessities.
“With extra unemployment benefits running out and food prices going up, the grocery stores of America, and shoppers themselves, are going to face some hard decisions.”
https://www.marketplace.org/2020/08/21/pandemic-economy-changing-how-americans-buy-groceries/
This situation cannot last for long.
The government can try to make up the difference, but it can’t really do this. Things will start falling apart.
“US equity markets might be breaching record highs, but the state of corporate distress in the country has never been worse. Large US corporate bankruptcy filings are now running at a record pace and are set to surpass levels reached during the financial crisis in 2009…
https://www.ft.com/content/277dc354-a870-4160-9117-b5b0dece5360
“The number of serious mortgage delinquencies rose to a 10-year high in July, according to a report released Friday by financial data firm Black Knight… Serious mortgage delinquencies are now at the highest level 10 years and have increased by 1.8 million since July 2019.”
https://thehill.com/policy/finance/513155-mortgage-delinquencies-of-at-least-90-days-rise-to-highest-level-in-10-years
Bankruptcies will be rising to incredible levels, especially if all of the government support for businesses is reduced.
“Coronavirus, disappointing investment returns and declining interest rates, pose a triple threat to the health of the US public pension system, which is haemorrhaging cash and heading for a record funding shortfall.”
https://www.ft.com/content/87d385d2-318a-4ddc-8947-9867f03faae1
“Boris Johnson and [Chancellor] Rishi Sunak are said to be at odds over changing the so-called triple lock on pensions due to the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
“The triple lock, which was a Conservative manifesto pledge in 2019, means the state pension increases each year in line with either wages, inflation or 2.5 per cent, depending on which of the three figures is highest…
“The chancellor is reportedly considering plans to temporarily suspend the triple lock to help public finances through the pandemic.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-pension-triple-lock-coronavirus-pandemic-debt-a9683151.html
Ah yes, the “triple lock”. Excellent Conservative measure: older people overwhelmingly vote conservative, so let’s promise them that whatever happens to the economy, they will continue to loot their children and grandchildren.
Before you denounce me: I am British and 75; I have never taken a penny of government welfare and never will. Everything I do not spend from my personal savings is bequeathed to the 12 members of my extended family. As they say, “pay it forward”. Perhaps it will be sufficient recompense for the Pantheon, for Fidelio, and for the Book of Common Prayer.
Every pension plan everywhere is headed for difficulty, I am afraid.
I would have thought that all pensions are in serious trouble.
“It certainly makes sense for California to meet its power demand by deploying a mix of resources within and outside state boundaries and for other states to supply California needs at a competitive price. These are the gains from trade. However, this does open the door for systemic risk that lurks below the surface largely ignored until it emerges and causes significant disruption.
“In this regard, California’s situation has some similarities in nature (though not scale) to the global financial crises of 2008-09.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianmurray1/2020/08/21/california-blackouts-systemic-risk-and-lessons-from-the-financial-crisis/#66835b439137
California seems to be headed toward more and more imported electricity, right at a time that other states have less to export.
I see similar problems developing in Europe.
Intermittent electricity has no stability attached to it. It cannot be depended upon. If one state/country doesn’t have it, there is a very good chance that its neighbors don’t either.
I just finished watching this it was interesting to hear what KLAUS SCHWAB had to say at the end at the 1 hour 1 minute 20 second part it showed me that the elites have devised a plan but they themselves are not sure how it will play out . If that link doesn’t work just go to you tube and search for ” covid19 the great reset ” .
Martin Armstrong has been writing a lot about what he said. His take is that they are purposely trying to collapse the system so they can replace it with a Green Society by eliminating fossil fuels.
Adonis,
Thanks, listening to it, purchased the book.
Gail is not on this forum, perhaps she should be; the world seems to be self organizing and this is top down leadership with inclusivity, etc. They seem to be basing their solutions on sustainable growth.
We seem to be in the midst of a reset, it seems to be papered over with incredible debt.
It is hard to get ahead of all this.
Dennis L.
Thank vou Dennis the book should be an interesting read to see the mindset of this group and what else they are planning the stakeholder thing is a mystery to me but if you wish to learn more about the origins of this group you would look into the CLUB OF ROME and men like Maurice Strong and Aurellio Peccie, so this group concocted a Doomsday plan that began in 2020 because they knew something had to be done to save the planet ,I think we are heading for a steep staircase collapse and then we will be left with a “Fast Eddie Challenge Worlld” with an Irradiated world to boot,How long have we got before we get there I have no idea so in conclusion I offer the following advice ” eat drink and be merry for tomorrow we die”
Sorry, this discussion started past my bedtime last night.
To me, it is just bizarre that people would think like this. But perhaps I should not be.
One of the commenters talked about local maxima rather than global maxima in a networked system. I think that this is precisely what happens. People who look at little pieces of the problem and also make ridiculous models of what the future will look like, think that they can save the system. They can’t save the system, but it may be that by “damping down” the economy, they can perhaps push the economy toward a more stair-stepped collapse.
Poor people in many countries around the world will find themselves more vulnerable to diseases of all kinds, and will start dying off. The financial system can perhaps be glued together for a little longer, with ever more debt. Sharing what is available, in the rich countries, can perhaps help prevent die off and governmental collapse in rich countries, for a while.
I will have to think abut this more. I need to read a little more about it and look at the video.
For people who fell for the fear, panic and hysteria. There’s some good news for you:
“Up To 50% Of Us May Be ‘Pre-Immune’ To Covid-19”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/up-to-50-of-us-may-be-pre-immune-to-covid-19/
“Rapid & Affordable Testing For Covid-19 On The Way”
https://www.peakprosperity.com/rapid-affordable-testing-for-covid-19-on-the-way/
Thanks!
I listened to much of Chris Martenson’s first video. “Up To 50% Of Us May Be ‘Pre-Immune’ To Covid-19”. It is well worth watching.
He makes the point that there is a super spreader group that really needs to become immune, in order for the disease to stop spreading. The super spreaders are the young adults who are highly mobile. There are also some others whose jobs make them vulnerable to the disease. On the other hand, many of the high risk group take themselves out of vulnerability by staying at home.
Also, some people are naturally immune, from immunity that seems to be related to immunity to the common cold. These people may amount to 50% of the population.
The combination of these two things seems to mean that herd immunity can be reached at a fairly low level (say 30%). The disease dies out on its own. The very restrictive shutdowns in Europe were likely counterproductive; they they did not allow enough of those who need to have their immunity raised to catch the virus. The disease just keeps coming back.
He also talks about the evidence that is being suppressed with respect to Hydroxychloroquine + zink + the antibiotic. He points to an open letter from physicians to Dr. Fauci regarding the combination.
https://www.thedesertreview.com/opinion/columnists/open-letter-to-dr-anthony-fauci-regarding-the-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-treating-covid-19/article_31d37842-dd8f-11ea-80b5-bf80983bc072.html
Gail, this is a property of the immune system that has been known for at least two generations. On encountering a virus,it chemically “dismantles” it, and constructs an antibody. But it somehow remembers what it has done, so when exposed to a similar virus it can usually respond very quickly. That is why so many people are untroubled by flu viruses (including me, I have never had a flu shot and never needed one).
That is why sanitising, mask wearing, social distancing and so on are ultimately counterproductive: they are depriving the immune system of the “training” it needs to remain well equipped for new but similar pathogens. This was familiar in Antiquity: Galen (“Galenos of Pergamon”) knew that 1900 years ago.
I do think that some societies have learned greater social distancing that others. China and Japan are definitely not “huggers.” Neither are the nordic countries. Warm countries and the US South seems to be much more inclined to hug than the northern and more urban areas. Perhaps fear of spreading illnesses was higher in the countries using more social distancing.
In New York State music venues can have outdoor music but are forbidden by dictator Cuomo from post what musical group will be playing. I guess if it is a good group the “covid” will be attracted. This venue has picnic table spaced eight feet apart.
Keeping us ignorant and uninformed seems to be important to dictator Cuomo.
I don’t give a rat’s a$$ about politics:; I just want to know how much time before the crash….the real crash…..your political diatribe is so ignorant right now I just wish you would go else where with it…Fox has a great comment section and I am sure you would be welcomed there….Boomer….
“the real crash”, ie worldwide, will be in the 2030s.
I guarantee it. 😉
late 2020 and early 2021 will reveal how low of an economic bottom from the effects of the (over)reaction to the virus.
smaller weaker peripheral countries will be crashing left and right thru the 2020s, and it is already beginning now.
too bad there will be lots of politics about all of this for the next 10+ years.
Do you really think the crash will happen in the 2030s ? It seems next to impossible to carry on for 10 more years, seeing how fast things are deteriorating now… Although, who would have guessed we’d still be on our feet 12 years after GFC ?
I expect some serious shortages to arise almost everywhere next year, and total collapse in 2-3 years. I really hope I’m wrong, but this is how I feel about it. Remember, exponentials work both ways.
Your analysis seems more reasonable to me. Next year will be … interesting.
“real crash” to me means when the grid goes dark. I think we have 10 more years before that happens in the US (I hope). In the mean time we’ll be going through a lot of financial crashes and lower standard of living for the 99%.
Calling people boomer so 2019… The crash is two years out. 🙂
crash in september so stock up
Remember Fast Eddie writing he expected the Stock Market 😅 to continue to spiral upwards until some critical factor breaks the system? What the constraining force to crash the system is hard to say. Maybe several events will coincide together as we are witnessing today… Weather, Debt. Mediocre Politicians making I’ll advised decisions, Resource constraints, Crop failure. Social unrest, Bank failures with panic public, wars, ECT
Yep. That sums it up nicely
Perhaps one crash to a lower level soon, another crash later. It is hard to understand how this works.
Dan,
If one has the answer to the date of the crash, it is very valuable and it will not be shared on a public forum. Frustrating time for all.
Dennis L.
Sorry my frustration is that I see the crash happening sooner than later. I get bothered by the political arguments as if one side is better than the other. The cake has been made by both political parties. I just don’t think they can can get kicked down the road much farther. Unemployment in the US is at an all time high.etc… I guess children will be children so here goes liberals suck no conservatives suck….
Dennis, thanks to the Rider Waite Tarot Deck, I know the exact date of the crash. The bidding opens at 100 troy ounces of gold.
I liuvs this … sustainable Cement!💥😌
https://news.yahoo.com/sustainable-cement-simple-switch-could-163407218.html
Sustainable cement: the simple switch that could massively cut global carbon emissions
Brant Walkley, Lecturer, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of
Thunberg initiated the first school strike for the climate. Over the past two years, she has inspired millions of people to fight for climate justice and a better future, and the European parliament declared a “climate and environmental emergency”.
At the same time, over those two years humans have emitted more than 80 billion tonnes of CO₂, and Earth has experienced the second hottest year on record. Despite the heightened awareness of the climate crisis, it is clear that much more needs to be done.
At the dawn of the industrial revolution approximately 200 years ago, the carbon footprint of humanity was close to zero. Today, humanity’s carbon footprint is more than half of our overall ecological footprint, resulting in humans using far more resources than could be renewed each year – equivalent to the renewable resources of 1.6 Earths.
Decarbonising industry and the economy is essential to improve the balance between our ecological footprint and the planet’s renewable resources. This would provide the best possible chance for humanity to mitigate the effects of climate change. Consequently, we need to rethink the way we build our cities. And to do this, we need to talk about cement.
Cement, the “glue” in concrete, is the durable, waterproof and ubiquitous material upon which modern civilisation is built. Concrete is second only to water in terms of commodity use, and the world produces more than 10 billion tonnes of it each year.
Recent reports have indicated that since the introduction of Portland cement around 200 years ago, our built environment is now outgrowing the natural environment that has existed for millions of years. This is driven primarily by rapid urbanisation. By 2050, 80% of the world’s population is expected to live in citiy
However, the ability to construct engineering masterpieces such as the Millau Viaduct and the Burj Khalifa comes with a high environmental cost. Cement production alone (excluding other aspects of construction) accounts for around 8% of global CO₂ emissions, about half of which results from chemical reactions inherent in the production process. As other industries such as energy and agriculture reduce their share of emissions, cement production may account for nearly a quarter of all human-driven CO₂ emissions by 2050.
Shifting completely to sustainable cement could, depending on technology used, save between 1.72 and 2.75 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, moving Earth Overshoot Day back by approximately ten days. These are savings that could be achieved today. By 2050, the savings could reach between 7.25 and 11.60 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, moving Earth Overshoot Day back by approximately 40 days.
This reduction in carbon footprint can be achieved solely by changing the type of cement we use to build cities and infrastructure. Further savings are achievable with more efficient design and the use of sustainable cements with enhanced performance, so that less cement (and hence less carbon) is required to achieve the same outcome.
Making cement more sustainable
Many low-CO₂ cements have emerged as attractive, more sustainable alternatives to traditional Portland cement. Portland cement is produced by heating a mixture of limestone and other minerals to around 1,450°C, a process that results in chemical reactions that release large amounts of CO₂.
But other materials are also widely used in concrete, including those largely generated from industrial waste or by-products such as coal fly ash, blast furnace slag, calcined clays, finely ground limestone or silica fume. They are used either by blending with traditional cement, or as a binder (or “glue”) themselves, without any Portland cement.
Importantly, the way these materials are produced results in far lower CO₂ emissions than Portland cement. This can reduce CO₂ emissions by between 50% and 80%, depending on the technology used.
Using these materials in cement provides enhanced strength and durability, and also improves sustainability by reducing associated CO₂ emissions and recycling industrial wastes. Many of these cements have been highlighted in the United Nations Environment Programme 2016 report as having greatest potential for cement-related CO₂ emissions reduction.
Despite the extensive environmental and technical benefits achievable, the construction industry has been slow to take up sustainable cement technologies, which have instead been focused primarily in smaller niche markets. This has limited the industry’s ability to decarbonise
See where there is a problem there is a solution😌
I prefer the following approach. It seemed to work for our ancestors and results in more beautiful structures:
“Stone,” says architect Amin Taha, “is the great forgotten material of our time. In 99% of cases, it’s cheaper and greener to use stone in a structural way, as opposed to concrete or steel, but we mostly just think of using it for cladding.”…
The tactile qualities of stone are clear, but, for Taha, the environmental argument is what makes it such an important material to champion. “As a profession, we’re not thinking clearly about the embodied energy of building materials,” he says. “The perverse thing about concrete is that you take limestone, crush it, then burn it, by which time it loses 60% of its structural strength – so you then have to put steel reinforcement inside it. It’s total madness.”
By embracing stone as combined superstructure and external architectural finish, he says, we can save 60-90% of CO2 emissions for these key building elements. “And we’re standing on a gigantic ball of molten rock, so we’re not going to run out of stone any time soon.”
http://hipcrimevocab.com/2020/07/11/new-old-architecture/
I’m probably missing something
but if I chisel out a slab of stone, say 20ft long and 6” square, put it across an open space, then jump up and down on it, it will break
If i mould concrete to the same dimensions, with rebar inside it, and do the same thing, it won’t
the above dimensions are a rough estimate, but you get my drift
You make an excellent argument against the construction of solid stone bridges.
One might try arches.
Dennis L.
I rather think it has been done: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pont_du_Gard
The rebar eventually reacts with the concrete, and it crumbles.
You can build things that don’t require 20 ft. spans of a 6″ sq. stone beam. Those beams would be made of wood, anyway.
“Concrete is commonly perceived as a stone-like, monolithic and homogeneous material. In fact, it is a complex mix of cooked limestone, clay-like materials and a wide variety of rock or sandy aggregates. Limestone itself is a sedimentary rock composed of shells and coral, whose formation is influenced by many biological, geological and climatological factors.
This means that concrete structures, for all their stone-like superficial qualities, are actually made of the skeletons of sea creatures ground up with rock. It takes millions upon millions of years for these sea creatures to live, die and form into limestone. This timescale contrasts starkly with the life spans of contemporary buildings.
Steel is often perceived to be inert and resilient too. Terms such as ‘Iron Age’ suggest an ancient durability, although Iron Age artefacts are comparatively rare precisely because they rust. If construction steel is visible, it can be maintained – for instance, when the Sydney Harbour Bridge is repeatedly painted and repainted.
However, when embedded in concrete, steel is hidden but secretly active. Moisture entering through thousands of tiny cracks creates an electrochemical reaction. One end of the rebar becomes an anode and the other a cathode, forming a “battery” that powers the transformation of iron into rust. Rust can expand the rebar up to four times its size, enlarging cracks and forcing the concrete to fracture apart in a process called spalling, more widely known as ‘concrete cancer.'”
https://images.theconversation.com/files/127036/original/image-20160617-30192-14nfml6.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&q=45&auto=format&w=1000&fit=clip
https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-reinforced-concrete-56078
Roman concrete (without rebar?) is still with us.
Roman concrete is indeed still with us. The dome of the Pantheon is made of concrete. When it was completed, some 1900 years ago, it was the largest freestanding concrete dome in the world. It is still the largest freestanding concrete dome in the world, because we have lost the technology that built it, especially the technology for making lighter concrete. The Romans, by the way, could make concrete that floated on water.
On the other end of the scale, a research group in Texas learned how to make concrete very like that of the Romans, and they discovered it was much stronger and more durable than modern day concrete. Indeed, it was almost as strong as reinforced concrete, and had the interesting property that it slowly became stronger with age.
At least Roman concrete manages to be pretty.
Modern concrete is ugly grey. A cursed colour.
Here is a short video about the Pantheon, including some
discussion of its construction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-aDhzQMIGCY
There some nice shots of the dome. The central space, the “oculus”, is the only source of light, and represents the sun. The twenty eight coffers in each ring probably represent the motion of the Moon. The six concentric circles represent … I’ll give you one guess.
Yes, the dome is a realisation in concrete of the solar system proposed by Aristarkhos of Samos (310 to 230)
some four hundred years earlier. And about 1300 years later, in 1500, a young seminary student visited Rome, looked at that ceiling, and perhaps was inspired. His name was Nicolaus Copernicus.
Thanks to Walter Murch, who first published this idea:
https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.bldgblog.com/2007/04/the-heliocentric-pantheon-an-interview-with-walter-murch/&sa=U&ved=2ahUKEwivlsGkt67rAhXPy6QKHYpaDHgQFjAAegQICBAB&usg=AOvVaw0r8v4gVskc7VXPO-2Uh8HD
Walter Murch, by the way, was the director of Return to Oz (1985), starring of course Fairuza Balk.
Re the Pantheon….one wish to be granted….to be transported back in time to witness the glorious creations of the Romans.
It must have been magnificent and in my opinion, their civil and architectural accomplishments far exceeded ours,
one might use therm ‘lost for words’ loosely—but the pantheon is the one building that has that effect as you walk into it
I was trying to make a point in the simplest way possible
this is a pic below of 2 bridges, 5 miles from me, one built in 1774 in stone to take stagecoaches
the other built in 1929 in concrete to take trucks
Both beautiful in their own right, different purposes, the original bridge left in place and it compliments the modern one
/Users/norman/Desktop/DSC00615.jpg
i can never figure out how to put photos on here
Anyone interested google ‘twin bridges Atcham’
good pics of it here
https://www.shutterstock.com/search/atcham+bridge
This is a link to a Wikipedia image:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/19/The_two_bridges_at_Atcham_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1673712.jpg/220px-The_two_bridges_at_Atcham_-_geograph.org.uk_-_1673712.jpg
There are two ways of showing an image:
1. Linking to an image that is already up on a website.
2. Taking an image that you created (perhaps by taking a screenshot of part of your computer display) and putting it up on a website, such as a site intended for blogs, or for photo sharing.
The way I link to an image that is already up is the following. I first click on the image and find “open link in new window.” When the image is in a new window, I can see exactly what the link is. If it ends in “.png” or “.jpg,” you are usually good to go. All you need to do is copy the link of the image (now shown as the URL of your new window). If you have uploaded the image to a website, this works as well. Put the image link on a separate line. This approach works for YouTube video URLs as well. (They are not .png’s or .jpg’s.)
If there are some offending extra characters at the end of the URL, such as 500 x 500, sometimes you can just delete these, and make the link work.
Thank you, Norman, most informative. On balance, I vote for the stone. The decay of a stone structure is easily visible, because it happens mostly from the outside in, as it did in the Great Pyramid. The decay of a concrete structure is almost invisible, because it happens from the inside out. That is why concrete bridges are prone to collapse, not always because of incompetent maintenance, but because their decay is hidden from view until it is too late.
In the Roman world, structures put together with concrete are still standing today. Rebar used now is coated with the surface so it will not rust as years past. The rebar will rust without the coating breaking the concrete apart.
As far as sustainable concrete is concerned. We live in a Finite planet, doubt they will have much success with the concept.
Back in my High School days 🤣 circa 1976! My architecture drafting instructor, Dr Carrara, pointed out that concrete is NOT a rock by definition. He also pointed out he paid $300 for a fancy new tech digital watch that today could be bought at Walmart for $10 in today’s money.
Were I asked to come up with an experiment to make concrete lighter and stronger, I’d propose mixing it with egg white. I must look into that.
re rebar coating. Epoxy coated bar adds ten years no more to time until spalling. FRP bar or stainless bar are far better. None of them are used much. You see the epoxy bar on mostly goverment jobs. I would guess less than 1 in 50 reinforced concrete pours uses anything other than uncoated rebar.
Artleads, a great idea. We can use the egg white for the concrete, and the egg yoke to make tempera, and then paint the concrete with scenes from the Commedia dell’Arte. Bring beauty back to the city, just as the Renaissance architects did.
Sustainability can be defined many different ways. Usually sustainable cement refers to some inclusion of a pozzalon which is a admixture other than portland. The most common of these fly ash reduces concretes ability to resist carbonation and subsequent rebar spalling reducing the concretes life. I would not define this as sustainable. On the other hand if non metallic FRP epoxy bar is used I would consider it sustainable. FRP bar also allows less concrete to be used for slabs and footers as minimum cover can be less. Whether the mix contains fly ash or not FRP bar allows a much longer service life and this is to my mind sustainable. Fly ash is cheap. Its industrial waste from powerplants burning coal. Omost all concrete is being mixed with 20% to portland flyash. If this makes it sustainable there is a lot of sustainable concrete being poured.
“Brant Walkley, Lecturer, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, University of Thunberg”
What better proof of the existence of God than the name of this university? A classic example of what Jung and Pauli called Synchronicity.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-russia-mut/russia-vaccine-roll-out-plan-prompts-virus-mutation-worries-idUSKBN25H1FC
‘Russia vaccine roll-out plan prompts virus mutation worries’
“Less than complete protection could provide a selection pressure that drives the virus to evade what antibody there is, creating strains that then evade all vaccine responses,” said Ian Jones, a virology professor at Britain’s Reading University. “In that sense, a poor vaccine is worse than no vaccine.”
“Scientists say similar evolutionary pressure to mutate is seen with bacterial pathogens, which – when faced with antibiotics designed to target them – can evolve and adapt to evade the drugs and develop resistance.”
As many of us realize Russia’s Covid-19 vaccine makers never disclosed phase I or II trial results however are inoculating 40,000 people including medical staff before phase III testing (if there is any).
I think this should be a concern for all Covid-19 vaccine candidates, because the bar has not been set very high, with 50% effectiveness as the minimum threshold of protection. Doesn’t that pose a similar risk to the Russian’s vaccine?
A concern that has never been voiced about the Western vaccine efforts. But then, they will result in hugely expensive treatments, while Russia has promised to give the vaccine to the world for free. No hidden agenda here, no way.
Mags, how did the fire-fighting go? Seems like you are here, but I hope you didn’t have too much damage.
Western media: “The russians are trying to develop covid vaccines now, how can we spin this to make russia look bad?”
Ok you first! Let’s see how brave you are comrade! I won’t take anything Russian.
I’ll take Russian Standard Vodka any day of the week. And it’s probably as good as the vaccine.
https://www.investopedia.com/stakeholder-capitalism-4774323
I believe the man who couldn’t see a difference between stakeholder and shareholder capitalism was some kind of socialist. So that for him capitalism = Bad. But maybe I’m the one who’s not understanding the issue.
I suppose if a person is opposed to capitalism, then even the more benign “stakeholder” capitalism would be rejected.
“The tide is shifting, however, and companies and business leaders are now calling for a return to stakeholder capitalism, which is currently prevalent in Europe and was formerly the norm, even in the U.S.”
the author makes this claim and then doesn’t give it much support.
“Critics also argue that shareholder capitalism is the reason public companies in the U.S. have immense value versus public companies in other regions like Europe where stakeholder theory is more popular.”
and certainly in these years of energy crisis and virus crisis, companies are taking all available measures to try to stay in business, which would mean a “return to stakeholder capitalism” is increasingly unlikely.
+++++++
Using some of what you wrote–thanks!
Based on the above, I’m unclear why a version of capitalism that increases demand and buy-in to the economic system isn’t more durable and socially benign than a more ruthless and alienating version that maximizes profit for the smaller number of shareholders. If the latter works better in a crisis that’s a plus for the system, this writer is implying.
Although neither system is based on nation building at the local level (which I see as necessary), I see stakeholder capitalism as more consistent with it. Stakeholder capitalism seems more egalitarian too, and my takeaway is that the growing inequality we see worldwide lessens demand–the many can’t afford to buy the goods the few create.
Both systems are still capitalism, and if you don’t like capitalism, you won’t see much point in the distinctions between stakeholder and shareholder capitalism.
I have no idea what the site of this article is other than its name: “LifeSite.”
https://www.lifesitenews.com/blogs/renowned-european-scientist-covid-19-was-engineered-in-china-lab-effective-vaccine-unlikely
It references a Prof. Giuseppe Tritto and a book he wrote claiming the Covid virus is man made. It references a number of US and French scientists who supposedly collaborated with Wuhan and thus have reason to distance themselves from the origins of the virus.
This article has an agenda, I attempted to chase down some of the paragraphs and the inferences don’t track very well.
“Prof. Tritto (author of the referenced book)believes that, while Dr. Shi’s(director of Wuhan lab) research began as an effort to develop a vaccine against SARS, it gradually morphed into an effort to use “reverse genetics” to build lethal biological weapons. This was the reason that the Wuhan lab became China’s leading center for virology research in recent years, attracting major funding and support from the central government.”
My personal conclusion is biological warfare research is not very productive and leads to results which turn on the investigator. This research was dumb, it was arrogant and has made a mess of the world both macro and personal.
Our personal question might be, how the hell do we lead our lives?
All the best,
Dennis L.
TLS are conservative RCC who used to be more compliant to the RCC hierarchy but who have taken on a more oppositional ‘traditionalist’ stance since Francis called into question the old RCC s/xual morality by allowing communion for divorcees, cosying up to LGB activists and posing for photos with trans etc. “Who am I to judge?” etc. I always said that conservative RCC would not go traditionalist until the hierarchy began in earnest to adapt to liberal s/x norms and that seems to have been borne out. Ecumenism, universal salvation, mass in the vernacular etc. never made a dent on conservative RCC, just s/x, which is corny but borne out.
TLS are now in opposition over c19, regarding the forced closure of churches and the possibility of compulsory vaccinations, both supported by the RCC hierarchy. Ironically they are adopting a liberalism, even a personal libertarianism that is all about their own independence from authorities, ecclesiastical and secular. It is the American way, even the American way of opposition to the American way – liberalism for traditionalists. RCC is losing control over many of its conservatives, especially the more aware types. TLS seems to be going into conspiratorial territory there.
RCC has been going through a long process of what we might now call ‘Sinicization’, most obviously since Vatican II council in 1960s, the adaptation of Christianity to the dominant values and objectives of the economic state. In the West, that is ‘liberal’ values. The Vatican recently agreed with CCP to the Sinicization of RCC in China to ‘Christianity with Chinese characteristics’ and the incorporation of ‘core socialist values’ into religion.
China is forcing Sinicization on all approved religious groups and clamping down on the rest. So RCC now concurrently maintains two ‘Sinicized’ versions of Christianity, one adapted to Western liberalism and another to Chinese ‘communism’. Which is fair enough, it used to be adapted to feudalism, whatever rules at the time. Religions have their own values and objectives and states tolerate them in so far as they can adapt and order them to their own values and objectives. An old parish priest in UK admitted to me that they have to go along with ecumenism etc. or the state will clamp down on them here. UK state maintains its own state church, which is always handy to adapt the religion.
Muslim schools in UK have to teach LGB equality by law. Like China, liberal states impose their values on communities whether they like it or not. Westerners tend to think that their liberal values are ‘special’ and that that justifies an element of state coercion over the spread of values; but every society in every age thinks that its values are ‘special’ – they would not be ‘values’ otherwise.
China and the West are much more alike in the state control of ideology and values, in my opinion, than they are often estimated to be – the West is generally just more subtle at it. I do not think that TLS have really worked out the ‘big picture’ yet, they are still naive about the world and how it works. They are newbies to non-compliance.
Thanks for the nice summary.
My personal opinion is secular humanism does not work and the philosophy is a dead end. Some say we are in a post secular era which would be consistent with all the angst shown by those who are essentially non sectarian, i.e. peaceful protesters.
You mentioned “Francis called into question the old RCC s/xual morality by allowing communion for divorcees.” Maybe for a society the traditional is the only thing that works. Many of the kids are terribly confused, they bounce from one extreme to another. Perhaps a core set of values does not need to be exactly correct, it needs to work 20% of the time to make life work 80% of the time. Something is better than nothing.
Dennis L.
Most people don’t care about any of this, even if they’re Catholic. It’s like arguments over whether it was right for Spider-Man to join the Avengers, even though he’s more of a loner character. Most of you probably didn’t even know that was an issue, and are rolling your eyes at the idea that such people exist.
Fraternal orders, like churches, have been aging / shrinking in membership. Does this hurt society in any way? I can’t see how.
Though I agree with your first paragraph, fraternal societies have always been essential in sustaining community ties, neighborliness, and mutual aid. If your barn burned down, your Amish brothers, or the Oddfellows you drank with on weekends, would help you rebuild… not some Indian call-center processing claims for Allstate.
So yes, being more atomized and less intimate hurts societies.
In this horrible time of “lockdown”, I envy the religious who, even if they cannot meet, enjoy a social bond which supersedes the transactional.
You mean Spiderman was a Catholic? Sancta Aranea, ora pro nobis!
Covid 19 has 29000 base pairs——
Humans are just not that smart.
Okay, what do you think they were doing in that lab?
A virus is pretty simple.
We can disagree and still not become angry, some humans are pretty damn smart – I suspect you are one of them.
Dennis L.
Duncan has previously posted work from Ralph Baric denying that cv19 was developed in laboratory. Baric of course is deeply involved in gain of function virus research. IMO Duncan posts on these topics are based on his leftist politics. Fauci must be presented as a savior. Any reference to the virus originating in China must be considered racist. Technocrats must be worshiped. Above all Trump must be the villain in his response to the virus not the people that created it, Tritto is a very experienced and understands how gain of function research is conducted very well. His credentials are extensive and impeccable yet you wont hear any mention of his documentation of how covid 19 was created on the MSM tonight or any other night. Considering that this virus has killed millions and has brought the world economy to its knees, that we have no idea what other viral pathogens they have cooked up wouldnt a independent investigation into the origins of the virus be in order?
Didn’t we visit all of this before? J.C. on a bike? From Harvard to the Big House? Fauci’s involvement in the Wuhan lab and “gain of function” research?
Not sure how easy it is to search this stuff on Gail’s old post comment threads…
Yes Lidia17 exactly.
There is a search function up at the top of the Home page. When I put in “Gain of Function,” the first thing that came up was my post:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/05/13/understanding-our-pandemic-economy-predicament/
Item [6] says, “The virus that causes COVID-19 looks a great deal like a laboratory cross between SARS and HIV, making the likelihood of a quick vaccine low.”
The section includes links to some of the references related to the topics.
I can search the comments, even if you can’t. I found this article mentioned in the comments.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2014/10/us-halts-funding-new-risky-virus-
studies-calls-voluntary-moratorium
This is a link to one of your comments, talking about a harvardandthebighouse article:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/05/13/understanding-our-pandemic-economy-predicament/comment-page-28/#comment-245042
This is the reference: https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/
Yes but tritto is a heavweight and ties the whole thing together including how financing of gain of function research works. That a man of his status will be completely ignored shows the censorship and controlled narrative involved in this pandemic.
A very interesting post by DeRisk on Zerohedge which is a summary of readers’s remarks. I found Montana Cowboy’s one of the best.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2020-08-21/where-hyperinflation-zero-hedge-readers-response
Montana cowboy has several good comments. This is one of the short ones:
“Inflation has gone into the financial markets.”
And debt plus taxation has hit the Laffer curve. More interest payments and taxes, less real economic activity. Rinse and repeat until hyper inflation hits finance markets and taxation on work and capital gains results in apathy and capital flight.
It’s hard to cash out when there isn’t anything to buy, or something which is extremely expensive in comparison to the extraction/manufacturing cost and it’s utility.
CENTRAL BANK RUN!! 😉
To pick up on the Lamarckian theme, I will show the sort of text from Nietzsche that I wrestling with (quoted at the end). He seems to be talking about the development of an independent, responsible character, what one might call ‘psychological qualities’, what he calls ‘virtues’. It raises the question of how one can acquire virtues that one does not already have – and whether one always can. What is it, physically, scientifically, to acquire some virtue? Some plasticity seems to be assumed that presumably has a physical basis of some sort, be it genetic, epigenetic, hologenetic or whatever. One would think that there is some physical condition, and limit, that accords with ‘virtues’.
covidinamonthorayearoradecade mentioned neuroplasticity, the ability of the brain to restructure itself in response to environmental pressures. That is the sort of thing that I have in mind regarding Lamarckism: whether the physical basis or condition of character that has been acquired by the individual in its lifetime may be transmitted to the next generation (or even somewhat shared horizontally if we are to consider hologenetics and the biological transmission of microbiomic genes.) We do seem to assume as a society that character can be developed and communicated, even ‘trained’; I am guessing that there is an accordant physical condition of some sort that is developed – can it be biologically transmitted, passed on or do progeny start entirely afresh? We seem to assume in Mendelian terms that it can be somewhat transmitted from the parents but only what they have genetically inherited not what they have personally developed in their lifetime (bar the passing on of virtues through educational transmission.)
Nietzsche seems to have a metaphysical approach in which all is ‘will’ to him, even a noumena that is ‘will to power’ and that is the ‘essence of the world’ (BGE 186), though that interpretation is objectionable. Virtue, character are in some sense manifestations of some underlying, cosmic impersonal ‘will’ that appears as ‘drives’ in the individual and ‘thought’ is the interplay of those often contrary ‘drives’. Nevertheless he emphasises physics, natural science; the underlying ‘will’ manifests and takes material form in a scientifically explicable manner, through what we would normally call ’cause and effect’ but which he interprets as the ‘interplay of wills’ but much to the same result, an orderly phenomenal explanation. Christianity also postulates a metaphysical ‘first cause’, and even ‘grace’ in the formation of character but it seems reasonable to assume a corresponding physical basis for Nietzsche. He seems to assume that ‘virtues’ are gradually accumulated and biologically transmitted from one generation to the next (see below); and there seems to be a growing consensus that he is Lamarckian.
The key point for finite worlders would be the ‘plasticity’ of virtues, character, the ability of individuals, and communities, to adapt ‘psychologically’ to radically altered social conditions after collapse. Obviously I am not saying that everyone is going to survive, human population expansion correlates with the growth in the consumption of energy. 20% of food in UK is not imported and that 20% assumes fertilisers, transport etc. Also there will be physiological stresses and the absence of modern medicine and treatments – etc. Undoubtedly we are headed for a population collapse, and I am not trying to get around that, obviously we are not about to ‘evolve’ such that we do not need energy to survive en masse, or turn into ants or something lol (though the rest of nature may somewhat ‘recover’ in our absence). And neither am I suggesting that skills can be acquired without training through some magic bacteria. No, I am focusing on ‘character’ and its plasticity, and whether a ‘softy’ can mentally adapt and become mentally ‘tough’, acquire the psychological ‘virtues’ needed after collapse. Humans are somewhat adaptable and there may be some grounds for optimism there.
I must emphasise that I am still reading through BGE for the first time, so all of my remarks are provisional, impressionistic and that the text will need much more close attention before I settle on any firmer interpretation – I am not committing to anything that I have said. Clearly Nietzsche has an aristocratic, hegemonic approach to society but that is not what I am getting at. Besides, if character, ‘virtue’ is plastic then we can ask why it would not be possible for everyone to develop an independent, responsible character, why ‘subjects’ would be necessary at all. Is it inevitable that the majority are ‘sheep’, ‘herd animals’ as he terms them, if character is in a sense plastic? Can ‘will to power’ be expressed socially in other ways, even democratically? Personally I would look at the impact of the material base on the ideological superstructure and on the roles that people play – a la Nietzsche’s contemporary Marx. It might be worth looking at still existing hunter-gatherer societies to see how they function, but we would be approaching such conditions after a very long psychological adaptation in different socio-economic conditions, so it cannot be assumed that we would adapt in the same way. So many questions and no real, clear answers. At the end of the day, what will happen happens and we will have to make the best of it in whatever way we do.
> You need to have been born for any higher world; to say it more clearly, you need to have been bred for it: only your descent, your ancestry can give you a right to philosophy – taking that word in its highest sense. Even here, “bloodline” is decisive. The preparatory labor of many generations is needed for a philosopher to come about; each of his virtues needs to have been individually acquired, cared for, passed down, and incorporated: and not only the bright, light, gentle gait and course of his thoughts, but above all the eagerness for great responsibilities, the sovereignty of his ruling gazes and downward gazes, the feeling of separation from the crowd with its duties and virtues, the genial protection and defense of anything misunderstood and slandered, whether it is god or devil, the pleasure and practice in great justice, the art of command, the expanse of the will, the slow eye that hardly ever admires, hardly ever looks up, hardly ever loves… BGE 213
It’s very simple: in tough times, get some bloody balls.
Ditch the failed narratives of the 19th and 20th centuries.
And don’t indulge in self-pity, a ghastly fate is the usual lot of mankind: see Marcus Aurelius.
Thus Spake Xabier.
You’re a hard taskmaster but a fair one, Xabier!
You sound more like Mabneto than Xabier!
Yes, I have seen him. His Τὰ εἰς ἑαυτόν is a depressing work, repetitious and written in an uninspiring style. I think its relevance today is the fact that it chronicles a collapsing civilisation, by an emperor who had no idea what to do about the collapse, except grit his teeth and carry on. A well documented failure of BAU.
“Nietzsche seems to have a metaphysical approach in which all is ‘will’ to him, even a noumena that is ‘will to power’ and that is the ‘essence of the world’ (BGE 186), though that interpretation is objectionable.”
Objectionable!? to whom?
The “will to power” is the same thing as the “will to life”. Life does not—cannot—exist without power. “Will” is the driving nature of forces, including the life force. It is not metaphysical in the least; there is nothing more real.
It is intuitively obvious that energy flows shape the world and shape us. That is the “essence of the world”. It is ridiculous to object to this.
===
“I am focusing on ‘character’ and its plasticity, and whether a ‘softy’ can mentally adapt and become mentally ‘tough’, acquire the psychological ‘virtues’ needed after collapse. Humans are somewhat adaptable and there may be some grounds for optimism there.”
Do you hold out optimism for yourself, or for whom? Is it a desirable outcome for “softies” to toughen up? Some of them? All of them?
it’s not desirable for me, a self-avowed softy, to adapt to a post-collapse scenario.
if collapse happens soon, I don’t see any realistic prospects for a “good life” for 60+ year old me. But I could be more in touch with Nature! Yippee!
but I find myself mostly optimistic about bAU tonight, and probably for many weeks and months ahead.
I also have some optimism for the toughies who live among us. They will give it a go in any post-collapse scenario, if that can be considered optimism.
so I don’t see it so much in terms of whether or not soft people will be able to adapt. They won’t.
but humans come in different types: here’s a not scientific approach:
https://www.mensxp.com/relationships/impress-women/47584-from-alpha-to-gamma-here-are-5-male-personality-types-that-decide-your-characteristic-traits.html
there must be better summaries than that, but anyway:
it’s not so much about a beta-omega type like me adapting to a post-collapse world.
it’s the alphas who, as I said above, will give it a go.
ps: just tossing out some ideas above, but I don’t expect collapse to be an issue in the 2020s. Optimism!
Hi Lidia17, what would be objectionable to many academics is the interpretation that Nietzsche considered the ‘will to power’ (WTP) to be genuinely noumenal.
He starts off from skepticism in BGE and he has a ‘perspectivism’ in which there is no single ‘truth’, rather humans construct perspectives that allow us to function. He explains that philosophers in particular tend to construct systems of thought to enthrone their dominant drive. Thus I interpret BGE to be such an exercise: his personal dominant drive is WTP and he is deliberately constructing a philosophy to enthrone it. WTP is his ‘perspective’.
So, he seems to see WTP as noumenal in BGE but it seems reasonable to interpret that as his ‘perspective’ rather than as ‘truth’ – thus it would be objectionable to say that he genuinely sees it as such. And indeed he dismisses such concepts as noumena as beyond human understanding. Yet it seems fair to say that he ‘runs with’ a reductionism in which all is WTP and he ropes in the noumena to the effort. He is constructing a system of thought to enthrone his drive but it should be understood that he sees it as his perspective, not as ‘truth’.
“The “will to power” is the same thing as the “will to life”.”
He sees them as distinct but connected. WTP is the single primary drive and WTL is its consequence. For him, we do not will power in order to remain alive (a la Schopenhauer), rather we will to remain alive in order to seek power. He reduces all of psychology and indeed all of the cosmos to WTP, it is his single primary explanatory principle.
“It is intuitively obvious that energy flows shape the world and shape us.”
I would be careful of interpreting WTP in a general, intuitive sense. For him it implies hierarchy, authoritarianism, conquest and domination – it is also a political concept. Thus it has implications for him that we might not include in a general, intuitive acceptance of the idea. No doubt there is some truth in WTP as political and geopolitical but whether we would want to reduce all human interaction, political or otherwise, to such WTP, and necessarily so, is another matter. It is only one perspective.
Personally I am more interested in his discussion of the development of personal character.
“Is it a desirable outcome for “softies” to toughen up? Some of them? All of them?”
Well, I would guess that it would generally be desirable for them, from their perspective, to survive after collapse but I would not claim to speak for everyone else.
Thanks.
Lidia, here I must respectfully disagree with you. For me, during almost my whole personal and professional life, the “will to life” has meant the “will to serve”. Not power for myself, but the power to influence others, and perhaps help them on their own life road. No credit is claimed; that is how the Gods made me. It is how (to refer back to another thread) they made Marcus Aurelius. And many others, great like him, or small like me.
Point taken, but for Nietzsche there are only ‘strong wills’ and ‘weak wills’; each person is simply the quantum of power that s/he comprises. The ‘strong willed’ instinctively seek the power to rule for their own benefit and the ‘weak willed’ instinctively seek the power to rule, and mutual aid, for their collective benefit. The former comprise exploitative farmers, one might say, while the latter comprise a ‘herd’ whose instincts are aimed at the power of the ‘herd’. All is nevertheless aimed at WTP but through different strategies.
It is a hard theory to disprove as WTP covers both egoism and altruism. In a sense it is true but he deduces the correctness of an ‘aristocratic’ society from it, which is another matter. I suppose that it is just his ‘perspective’ according to how he liked to see himself, as an exploitative philosopher-ruler rather than as a writer who got dumped by his fiancee, lived with sister and went demented – not that we need hold any of that against him. Maybe he was gay and he expressed his attraction to masculinity through his philosophy of dominance, who knows?
Marx is not entirely dissimilar, the conflict of classes due to their contradictory interests under capitalism. In a sense, he simply takes the other side and his analysis of class power as the motive force of society is not entirely different. For Marx however it is grounded in historical and economic development and the telos lies in the historical overcoming, in communism, of self-alienation, control over one’s life, one’s labour and its products. In a sense that is WTP too though, but he concludes a different sort of society, the opposite to Nietzsche.
It is hard to ‘disprove’ that the pursuit of any objective is in a sense WTP as it involves, in some sense, the mastery of circumstances, the efficiency of the will to overcome obstacles and to realise the objective. The usual interpretation is that effort is aimed at some particular success, some objective, rather than at success in general for its own sake. For Nietzsche, happiness lies in the feeling that power has increased in its exercise rather than in the attainment of any particular goal. It is a hard one to disprove as the two go together, accomplishment and the particular accomplishment.
‘You say that you feel good because you saved a life but really you feel good because you imposed your will on the situation. Saving a life was just an opportunity and a pretence for you to feel good about yourself.’ Cynical and quite funny really.
“You say that you feel good because you saved a life but really you feel good because you imposed your will on the situation.”
Throughout history right up to the present day, people have saved lives at the cost of their own. That is why firemen enter a burning building. I claim that this phenomenon alone refutes the “will to power” thesis.
It is actually a form of slander and Nietzsche expresses awareness that he is ‘slandering’ humanity by, in his view, telling the truth about it.
Every accomplishment has attendant circumstances and it a common route to slander to claim that the attendant is the real objective. It discredits the actor by detaching them from the objective, substituting a ‘lesser’ motive and making them look selfish or cynically exploitative of the objective. It reverses the accomplishment from ‘praiseworthy’ to ‘despicable’.
I noticed an article on TLS website last night that takes a similar approach. A film director talked about how, in his view, gays and lesbians feel a certain social pressure to express their success and status by having kids.
‘”Children have in a way become a status symbol among many gay men,” director Yuval Hadadi, whose most recent film, “15 Years,” examines the breakdown of an affluent gay couple’s relationship after one partner decides to become a father. “They signify a certain level of time, money, and ambition,” observed Hadadi, resources that have often been available only to wealthy, A-list gays and lesbians.’
Once attendant circumstances have been highlighted, it is an easy move to make the attendant the real motive and TLS does not miss the opportunity to try to make gay parenthood look cynical and despicable rather than praiseworthy.
“Family is a photo op. And children are props.”
Of course the same circumstances attend straight parents and those sort of arguments can be made about anyone. If the absence of attendant circumstances is the precondition of ‘pure’ motives then we are all d/mned because the world just is not like that.
Anyway, I thought that TLS article provided a neat example of how the attendant circumstance is used to displace and to discredit the objective. It is a common form of slander.
But also we do need to aware of the complexity of motives if we are not to be naive in this world. Moral posturing is very common as a strategy of self-advancement. I tend to use such analysis to ‘punch up’ where power really lies rather than ‘down’. For Nietzsche though, power of some sort lies everywhere and there is some truth in that. Cynicism is certainly one lens of a clear eye.
Nietzsche is from a long line of Lutheran preachers and Gail is probably spotting that he seems to be reworking Christian contemplative concerns. It seems possible to interpret him as very much in the Protestant tradition.
The early reformers, including Luther, had a doctrine of ‘total depravity’ that they traced to Paul (eg. Romans 8) and Augustine. Thus the exercise of the ‘virtues’ is only apparently virtuous in ‘fallen man’, his motives are somehow corrupt and his virtues fake.
WTP seems to be a similar take, that whatever the objective, the motive is always an attendant circumstance, even power in some sense. WTP as a proposed universal motive serves to discredit all ‘virtue’ and it functions to support ‘total and universal depravity’.
Nietzsche the pious Lutheran? Likely he got a lot of his philosophy from his aunties, the pious darling.
Hmm, Sunday mornings.
Matt. 23
5 But all their works they do for to be seen of men: they make broad their phylacteries, and enlarge the borders of their garments,
6 And love the uppermost rooms at feasts, and the chief seats in the synagogues,
7 And greetings in the markets, and to be called of men, Rabbi, Rabbi. &c.
25 Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye make clean the outside of the cup and of the platter, but within they are full of extortion and excess.
27 Woe unto you, scribes and Pharisees, hypocrites! for ye are like unto whited sepulchres, which indeed appear beautiful outward, but are within full of dead men’s bones, and of all uncleanness.
28 Even so ye also outwardly appear righteous unto men, but within ye are full of hypocrisy and iniquity. &c.
Jesus the Nietzschean cynic?
Damn 🤣, is this a metaphor of the entire world….inches away from collapsing…oh my
The Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze River
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – Water levels at China’s giant Three Gorges Dam on the Yangtze river are inching closer to their maximum after torrential rains raised inflows to a record high, official data showed on Friday.
With 75,000 cubic metres per second of water flowing in from the Yangtze river on Thursday, the reservoir’s depths reached 165.6 metres by Friday morning, up more than 2 metres overnight and almost 20 metres higher than the official warning level.
The maximum designed depth of China’s largest reservoir is 175 metres.
Authorities raised the discharge volume to a record 48,800 cubic metres per second on Thursday to try to lower water levels, and they might have to increase it again to avoid the possibility of a dangerous overflow.
“They will do everything they can to prevent the dam from overtopping,” said Desiree Tullos, a professor at Oregon State University who studies the Three Gorges project.
“An overtopping dam is a worst-case scenario because it produces significant damage… and can lead to the entire thing collapsing.
Lions, Tigers and Bears Oh MY!
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=NecK4MwOfeI
I’m scared….too much already….time for a HaPpy pIlL
This is a big concern. Perhaps if the Three Gorges Dam can make it through the next week, it can make it through a few more years, until a big flood hits.
That original satellite pic of the deformed 3 Gorges Dam must have been phony. It had to have been photo shopped or the apparatus to photo it had anomolies, because unless concrete is poured in a curved shape, it won’t deform from pressure into a curved shape. A different pic later from a different satellite showed the dam is straight as an arrow, which isn’t surprising, because if it had deformed as much as shown originally it would have collapsed very fast. What the authorities agreed is the outside edges of the dam deformed but within specified, and expected margins.
So no need to worry about a story that just won’t go away because people still think it will soon crack, break and let loose of billions of tons of water, which I’ll admit would be a wild and crazy disaster.
Also, all dams have seepage. I’ve been in lots of them and that just goes with the territory, because the concrete can’t be poured all at once. So if you go inside down the stairs, corridors you’ll see water seeping through. It’s not much compared to how much is being held back.
With 75000 m^3 flowing in, and 48,800 m^3 flowing out, that means the water behind the dam is increasing by 26,200 m^2. Perhaps Desiree Tullos should learn a little grade school math, and think again.
“The impact of Covid-19 in Latin America is igniting protests in several countries, as the economic fallout from the pandemic aggravates existing social tensions from the streets of Buenos Aires and Panama City to remote parts of Brazil and Bolivia…
“‘An escalation of unrest is inevitable'”…
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/20/americas/latam-covid-19-protests-intl/index.html
“First it was barley, then beef and now wine. China has Australian exporters in a spin over allegations they sold wine below the cost of production.”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08-19/china-eyes-australian-wine-export-in-latest-trade-move/12571672
“Australia is blocking a Chinese takeover of some its oldest food brands as its trade war with Beijing escalates.
“Scott Morrison’s government quashed a A$600 million (£325 million) deal to stop dairy products, including the venerable Dairy Farmers label, being sold to Mengniu Dairy.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-bans-chinese-bid-to-buy-dairy-brands-as-trade-war-grows-tz29zqdqd
Why would China want to buy a dairy? There is no tradition in China of eating milk-based products. Most Chinese are lactose intolerant.
China is probably NZ’s biggest market for dairy products. $5.6B last year out of 20 odd billion in total exports.
China needs high enough prices for its own food producers, I expect.
“Japan’s factory activity extended its fall in August for a 16th month, casting doubt over manufacturers’ hopes for a rapid recovery as they struggled with the coronavirus-induced global economic downturn.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/japan-economy-pmi/japans-recovery-hopes-hit-by-aug-factory-activity-contraction-pmi-idUSZRN000LVI
“Japan’s core consumer prices were stubbornly unchanged in July, dashing hopes for a modest rise as the coronavirus pandemic hit household demand and revived fears of a national plunge back into deflation.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-inflation/japans-consumer-prices-mired-as-deflation-spectre-looms-idUKKBN25H008
Not enough companies/people buying goods and services around the world. Affordability problems.
“The Eurozone economy’s recovery from coronavirus lost steam in August, according to new survey data, as demand in the bloc’s all-important services sectors slowed.”
https://www.cityam.com/eurozone-economys-recovery-stumbles-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/
“European Central Bank officials signaled that they could roll out new monetary stimulus in the fall to shore up economic growth, as the region wrestles with rising unemployment and a possible wave of corporate bankruptcies.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/battered-eurozone-could-see-more-economic-stimulus-in-the-fall-11597929527
Europe, like everywhere else, needs to learn to live with more COVID cases.
This is a breezily optimistic piece!
“The USA’s debt now exceeds the size of its gross domestic product. For decades, this was considered a doomsday scenario that would wreck the economy. So far, that hasn’t happened.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/21/business/economy/national-debt-coronavirus-stimulus.html
“UK government debt has risen above £2 trillion for the first time amid heavy spending to support the economy amid the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53859299
“Germany will extend its furlough scheme by another year, as Rishi Sunak prepares to wind down the UK’s equivalent programme…”
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/germany-extends-furlough-scheme-by-a-year-as-uk-jobs-crisis-looms/20/08/
“German Finance Minister Olaf Scholz has announced Europe’s top economy will have to take on even more debt next year to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Germany has pledged to spend over a trillion euros.”
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-to-take-on-more-debt-in-2021-to-tackle-pandemic/a-54643033
Every country has problems that have been brought on by attempting to fight the pandemic.
Breezy optimism is so refreshing. I trust the MSM will provide even more of it to keep our spirits up.
Made me think of one of Jez’s wonderful lines in “Peep Show”:
https://pics.me.me/thumb_idont-want-to-tempt-fate-but-i-think-everything-is-53019314.png
Looks like we’ve settled on the letter — K — that best describes this recovery… and while it earns higher Scrabble points than the others, it’s also the most insidious of the lot.
“The idea behind the letter is that some people and companies have managed to get through the health crisis in relatively good shape, while many others are suffering. K-shaped economic and market data abound, and show a widening gap between the comparatively privileged — for instance, those with jobs they can readily do from home — and the disenfranchised…
“The Covid-19-exacerbated gap between the privileged and the rest is a depressingly pervasive pattern, and it’s reflected in the bond market (isn’t everything?).”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-08-21/the-weekly-fix-an-ominous-shape-emerges-for-economic-recovery
“My friend George Friedman of Geopolitical Futures defines depression as the physical destruction of the economy, something that lays waste to businesses, dislocates labor and vaporizes capital. A recession is the economy cycling. A depression is an economy breaking.
“…unless a solution for the coronavirus and what it’s doing to our economy is found by September, the probability that the recession turns into a depression could mount.”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2020/08/20/what-makes-this-recession-different-from-the-rest/#1384fbc36653
The Forbes article also goes on to quote George Friedman regarding why September is key:
Its the 20% unemployed during the great depression that everyone remembers but the 80% who did not lose there jobs did very well indeed. Although wages did not rise the cost of living fell considerably making them better off.
Increased mechanization made growing crops cheaper and more productive for farmers who could afford the investment. This drove up the quantity of food produced and reduced the price.
But there were a lot of poor farmers who could not participate in this. Their costs were still high. There were also a lot of farmer’s helpers who got laid off, as their work was increasingly done by machines. The net result was a lot more wage disparity (including many unemployed), and a lot of variability in the cost of producing food. There were big gluts of food, as farmers without the higher tech machines found they could no longer sell their crops and make money. In fact, oil supply charts show big gluts of oil at this time too. The crisis was one of unaffordability by the many who were laid off, or who could not make an adequate living in farming because their costs were too high relative to the new lower prices for food.
What about the ‘O’ recovery?
Lots of new zeros for the billionaires, and a nice symbol for the plughole we are getting sucked into…..
That is a good name for the problem!
The sneaking reality is that all these “work from home jobs” on computers don’t put food on the table, provide snaitation, provide you potable water, electricity, gasoline, or keep your car running. Furthermore, these keyboard “jobs” can be shut down with a kill switch. Just the way the DS wants it.
Eventually, security and stability will be found in hands-on construction, repair, mining, growing type jobs- and back in smaller, more localized, less complex towns.
It seems that plans for herding humanity into the big cities where it is easier to exert control through supply lines and biometrics has backfired for now because of all these riots. Those who can afford to leave the cities are leaving.
It is a multiprong attack. Digital currency, NSA spying, indoctrination of our children from kindergarten through college, massive indebtedness through this new system of creditism, wealth extraction of the middle class through various programs like the “Affordable” Care Act and now they are attempting to push forward vaccination permit to restrict your mobility and attach additional means to track you.
Money is being sequestered away as primary dealer “reserves” like the military stockpiles munitions, gasoline, and spare parts in preparation for war. We don’t see it yet. Part of the strategy is to deceive and confuse the people, and roil them up into civil war. The central bankers say they want a target rate of 2% inflation. Not really. They want to crash the system at the right time into a deflationary black hole, then buy up everything on the cheap with their reserves, before unleashing a hyperinflation supernova which will destroy the currency and allow them to usher in the new digital money and other control measures.
“After rebounding from a historic crash this spring, the oil market is back under pressure from the twin forces of rising supply and stalling demand… signs of weakness have emerged under the surface of the market, pointing to a long-lasting glut that is likely to keep a lid on prices.
“Slowing oil purchases by China and a resurgence in virus cases in Europe are undermining the bounceback in energy demand, which had been eviscerated by shelter-in-place orders. Adding to the pressure, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies have relaxed record output cuts they imposed earlier in the year to spark a rally in prices.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/red-flags-point-to-faltering-recovery-in-oil-11597925459
“Ton-mile demand, a proxy for demand for oil tankers, has slumped in the summer as OPEC’s oil production dropped to a three-decade low…
“Early data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence suggests that demand for tankers will be equally depressed in August.”
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Demand-For-Oil-Tankers-Plunges-As-OPEC-Restricts-Exports.html
Part of the story, when I clicked on a link, is that demand for tankers was way up in April, when there was a lot of oil being pumped that could be only stored offshore on boats. Now this oil is being drawn down, leading to less demand for tankers. This adds to the already low demand situation.
But WTI is still at $41.65.
Explaining the China problem further, the article says:
China was reducing their inventory of US dollars by spending them on what appeared to be real wealth, such as oil. A sensible move; but now they have nowhere to store that oil.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/08/20/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-rise-back-above-one-million/
“The number of laid-off workers seeking U.S. unemployment benefits rose to 1.1 million last week after two weeks of declines, evidence that many employers are still slashing jobs as the coronavirus bedevils the U.S. economy.”
just one week under 1 million new claims, and now it’s over 1 million again.
Zerohedge has article it calls he Devastation Of The Middle Class: It Now Takes 53 Weeks Of Median Wages Every Year To Pay For Basic Needs
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inline-images/thriving%20index.jpg
Of course, this is without the pandemic. Without all of the extra government funds, it would be even worse now.
” … big fixed costs like housing, health care, a car, and education … ”
Once again, an economist falls over the truth, picks himself up, and moves right along. The problem is that all the above were *not* “fixed costs”. They were ever increasing costs. In two cases, housing and cars, much of the increase was caused by rising production costs, because both house builders and car makers kept adding new, largely unnecessary features. Marketing people call this “product differentiation”: when every product performs its basic function, you can compete only by adding things to the basic function, unnecessary and often useless things, and when everybody does this the prices are inflated generally.
In the other two cases, health care and education, the reason is that these industries have been taken over by largely parasitic “rent seeking” organisations, such as health insurance companies, university and school administrators, guidance counsellors, “diversity” experts, and so on.
All of this could have been avoided by a little prudent legislation and a polity that encouraged, rather than suppressed, free market competition. But as long as US politicians compete for money first and votes second, this can’t happen.
Inflation calculations conveniently leave out the “feature creep” problem. They assume that you really want a car with stronger bumpers, a catalytic converter, a better audio system, antilock brakes, air bags, and any number of other features.
With respect to education, universities compete with other universities on how much of faculty time is spent on (often worthless) research, in an attempt to publish ever-more academic papers. Student education is left to graduate students and part-time faculty members who earn very little. Schools add ever-fancier eating facilities and residence halls (dorms are out!). They recruit more and more students, even though there will be very few job openings in the future in these fields. Some schools accept practically anyone with a pulse.
Gail has written about how we need more demand in order to keep up energy prices and make them profitable. But more money is flowing to the few at the top and those at the bottom are becoming increasingly impoverished. Increasing automation also means fewer jobs for those at the bottom.
UBI (Universal Basic Income) is now being discussed more and more. It would certainly solve the demand problem. People could also spend their UBI on childcare or spending some of their time socialising in youth clubs and drinking coffee, without fuelling inflation or requiring only unlimited material goods. That would keep them out of harm’s way. It would also get a lot of the homeless off the streets. Once people have the basic necessities of life, most find fruitful things to do. Is UBI an idea whose time has come? I doubt Gail would agree. Her ideas seem to be inherently conservative. She neatly analyses problems but seems reluctant to consider solutions.
Watch this insightful short film about UBI.
Yes, if you think about people like yourself and the others on this board, it makes a lot of sense to replace all the bureaucracy of a thousand means-tested programs with UBI. What would likely end up happening, though, is that you would end up with UBI *plus* all the patchwork of make-work programs, (which often aren’t all that fair, and take a lot of navigating). The social worker/navigators are essentially another class of welfare cases themselves.
Sadly, there’s a segment of the population that would just blow through any amount of money and plead for more. (Well, there are two segments counting the one at the top.. Jamie Dimon and his robber brothers.) I read a comment about Section 8 housing [for those not in the US, these are gov. subsidies to private landlords to bridge from market rate to what poor tenants can theoretically pay] to the effect that—even if the gov pays 98% of the rent and a tenant is asked for $20—they often refuse or won’t bother to pay even that tiny remaining obligation. This is how bad it is. If people were responsible with budgeting to begin with, they generally wouldn’t end up being wards of the state. There are about 7.5 million people in the US with an IQ under 70 (what used to be classified as mildly to profoundly mentally retarded), 52 million with an IQ under 85.
You find that not very bright people have friends or family to help them out. My mother showed her not very bright neighbour how to organise and pay her household bills and keep on top of them – this despite my estimate that my mother herself had an IQ of around 80. My sister did the very same with her own neighbour, who happened to be a minor actress, playing a grandma in a local TV series about a fictional school. Even not very bright people learn to get on top of money, because it’s a necessity. One shouldn’t base a policy on the bottom part of society not being able to manage it. I have read, for instance, that Elvis Presley had an IQ of around 70.
Anyway, I think that UBI will be tried out in several of the Western countries. Its time seems to have come .It will help to distribute wealth at a time when otherwise it gets funnelled to the rich, and the people at the bottom are less and less employable. It should also have the effect of reducing homelessness, though not entirely. Changing times require changing solutions. Any thoughts, anyone else?
Yes, indeed the era of busywork is drawing to a closure. Nobody living in the approaching era of technofeudalism shall anymore be able to pretend being productive and useful, yet not denied basic human rights and decency.
It is a disgrace to the capital and the productive to deny them of their competitive advantages in a terminally declining real economy by the wastrels useless frippery with bureaucracy and taxation. Yes, kiss farewell to the delusions of a centrally planned path to a socialist dystopia where the delusional muppets thought they could wield AI for the “better” of mankind.
https://youtu.be/7Pq-S557XQU
Time to face the music and sell while there still is time and move out into the obscurity of mundane human affairs conducted on a planet with dwindling natural resources. You, yes, you (and I) officially declared as useless. Life as a subsistence farmer awaits.
https://youtu.be/sFyEQUTNGhM
Beyond understanding in a parallel domain
In the coldness of cyberspace the beast is growing
Everyone is feeding a calculating entity
That is life-threateningly close to sentience
A.I.
Is there no one that sees it, no one that understands?
It’s known since the dawn of time you reap what you sow
When a new type of thought takes human shape
The consequence is enormous
A.I.
Out of nowhere rises a new model
Perfect and fault-free in every cell
Humanoid but functional
The future is artificial
A.I.
Before long we will have awoken what forever will continue
To erase the border between man and hybrid
So observe the machine before all is lost
When humans doomed go through metamorphosis
The truth is that the masses are androids
And an analog man is called paranoid
Cyber-reflexes exist from finger to screen
And caution is an outdated term
Out of nowhere rises a new model
Perfect and fault-free in every cell
Humanoid but functional
The future is artificial
Are those thoughts yours or virtual?
Is the question not relevant?
Is it mine or virtual?
Are you a man or artificial?
A.I.
A.I.
Out of nowhere rises a new model
Perfect and fault-free in every cell
Humanoid but functional
The future is artificial
Are those thoughts yours or virtual?
Is the question not relevant?
Is it mine or virtual?
Are you a man or artificial?
A.I.
At this point “rich” countries might as well have a go at it as it could provide some relief to those who need it the most, although that would be very temporary. However it will not stop the wealth transfer to the riches, only mitigate it… and it will not buy us some extra time I’m afraid. We’re ripe for the final stage of collapse.
wealth is like drops of water on a greasy plate
move the plate around
and sooner or later all the water drops will accumulate in a single pool
Let me guess, you think the real wealth is accumulated in pools of binary digits?
The real wealth is the capability to harness energy and convert it to useful units of work, and access to devices of technological omnipotence.
The rest is simply some fickle smoke and mirrors game of money.
that wasn’t quite the analogy i was trying to put over
there used to be thousands of mom and pop stores everywhere, producing modest wealth.
gradually they went out of business because commercial ‘shifts’ made goods cheaper in bigger and bigger ‘box’ stores, so customers went there instead
now big stores are feeling the pinch because the likes of amazon are squeezing them out of business too—000s of stores close and bezos becomes the richest man in the world.
hence my analogy of wealth being like drops of water on a greasy plate
move the plate a little and the drops all come together in a single pool
human nature makes it happen, technology is the tool we used to do it.
Flawed analogy, who, exactly do you think supply Amazon? How many sellers and used stuff and various obscure items isn’t up for sale there? It will eventually end up as an utility or simply broken up.
Just because Bezos and the stock holders of Amazon are wealthy does not exclude the possibility of other people taking advantage of the commercial framework.
Moms and pops stores are a thing of the past, it is simply obsolete. Instead you’ll buy directly from the suppliers using broker services. Just today I bought some freshly collected blueberries from a local using an Internet service. Would you like them to be put out of business and reinstating the M&P stores?
Just forget about the old world, wake up and take a sip of that morning coffee.
K. thx. 🙂
when Henry Ford got his motor empire up and running on a massive scale he acquired every aspect of the necessary supply chain
He only failed to acquire the rubber supply
As I understand it, Amazon is doing the same thing by seeking to control supply in the sense of ‘sell through Amazon” or not at all
Not quite there yet, but certainly headed that way
Amazon isn’t building stuff, they are rather effective middle men. It is basically a brokerage service between sellers and buyers.
Look at it as the stock market for tangibles.
There is no need for the overhead and excesses for the “nostalgia” of Moms and Pops stores anymore.
Besides, I am sure Ford automobiles is t the only cars up for sale?
Come on Norman, you clearly have to think it through.
That crypto commie narrative is getting a bit long in the tooth.
It is the end of the middle man era. Automated warehouses and computerized brokerages are obviously more efficient.
And nope, sleepy Joe won’t do an iota of difference, that cargo ship has sailed.
I am sure that as the economy falls apart, more and more countries will try different approaches which in some way distribute buying power to individuals.
The catch is that extra buying power has to come back in such a way that more goods and services in total are produced in the economy. The way that this is done is by raising the price of energy products, such as oil, natural gas, coal, and wholesale electricity, encouraging producers of these products to produce more of their products. With more economic production of energy products, it is possible to create goods and services inexpensively. It might keep some fossil fuel producers from collapsing in bankruptcy.
We live in an international economy. I don’t know whether printing money in one economy will lead to a drop in that’s economies currency, relative to other economies. Generally, this is what a person would expect. If it does, I am not certain that the approach will work well.
At some point, a person wonders whether the current international system of trade will disintegrate. A new system may arise, perhaps with small groups of countries trading with each other.
I can see small countries using existing cash (and replacing it from existing molds) very gradually. The cash from one nation ought to work within that nation. I can’t see how trading with different currency groups would work.
Global optima isn’t the same as local optimum.
In a distributed system, the only thing of importance is how optimally you perform in your direct surroundings. Sort of like, dunno, life perhaps? 🙂
Even though you sacrifice maximum efficiency, you have gained robustness and resilience towards catastrophe.
The challenge is to balance the level of robustness with efficiency. One first simple approach could be the nation state borders and then refine it from there as new measurements become available.
Wanna bet against it? How about COVID-19 🦠 and if that isn’t enough a grand finale in the form of COMET-19? ☄️.
Forget about a centrally planned crypto commie future, an inevitable total and utter dystopia, riddled with single points of failure.
It’s gone, repeat after me. ITS GONE.
[GIF removed by Gail]
our fundamental problem is that our brains have not developed in parallel with our perceived prosperity.
10/20000 years ago, the world we lived in was to all intents and purposes infinite.
if you wanted to eat, you went out and killed something, hopefully choosing a critter that wasn’t big enough to eat you.
Food animals stretched to the horizon—where you didn’t go in case you fell off the world.
That’s the way our world used to be.
our brains tell us it still is.
Our primeval brains still say the world is infinite so we elect politicians and pay economists to tell us the world is what we think it should be, not what it is.
we can ‘eat’ forever, as well as all the other stuff we think is ours by (god given) right. We don’t see ourselves as hunter-gatherers anymore.
But thats only because we can afford to pay someone else to do that messy side of staying alive.
Your model of the human history, evolution and in extent them brain is outdated. Human civilization have existed, perished and then emerged again from its humble origins. The lineages have been purged of most of the bestiality and corruption by the relentless corrosion from the brainy and meek. Now it’s time for the fake altruism and sanctimonious hypocrites to feel the burn.
interesting point of view
I would be even more interested if you could demonstrate in some way, how the acquisitive streak of the human psyche has changed to any great extent in the last 10k years.
It was 10000 years ago that we started enclosing land, cultivating food instead of chasing it, and calling that land ‘property’.
That was the start point of resource consumption, because if you own land, you must exceed its productivity.
Why?
Because you have to pay (feed) people to defend it, count it and pray over it, as well as support your family of layabouts who will decide that the lower orders on that land owe them a living.
So by definition you must start the process of infinite consumption on a finite planet. (by taking resources from elsewhere)—which is how wars start.
We are now at the endgame of that process, but still retaining the concept of ‘infinite consumption’ we started with 10000 years ago.
All wars have been about rescource acquisition,
The USA—the most resouce wealthy nation to have existed, is now at war with itself.
44m on food support, and millions are threatened with homelessness—- while an elite 0.01% own most of the assets that would alleviate that crisis, promising that excess is ‘forever’. (all you have to do is work harder)
We have a pandemic that threatens to collapse the world economic system, and the worlds richest man uses it to increase his wealth by another $30bn or whatever. (as do others)
Again, they suck in resources from elsewhere.
Resources are finite, so the majority go short while the minority take more and more.
(the mentality of the infinite planet)
I am not presenting a political point of view, philosophy, or a solution —merely stating the situation we have got ourselves into.
Nothing more.
No one will be more pleased than me to be shown to be wrong. –But just saying: ‘you’re wrong’ won’t do.
Religions have tried in some ways to tame the acquisitive streak.
I disagree
The great cathedrals were an absorption of communal wealth and energy of the people who lived in their vicinity
The priests sold the concept of eternal life in return for contributions that built the great religious house in the past
there were some genuinely good people in the church obviously, but a look round the vatican serves to prove my point
Because acquiring material wealth is mostly a thing of the diminishing bourgeoisie, bush with competing against each other in vanity and sanctimonious hypocrisy.
The productive (modern era artisanry) and rulers (industrialists) does not really concern themselves that much with acquiring stuff to impress on others.
What matters is wielding the (human/machine) capital and natural resources toward omnipotence.
In an objective sense the productive and rulers share the same life style. Got an iPhone, a Tesla, a house, two children, a dog. The usual mundane BAU Jazz.
The workers play with the tools of the trade, while the elites play with game theory.
It’s all game. You are stuck in a Marxist world view. In a ironical twist, as you know, Marx hated the bourgeoisie.
Gail, another elegant summary. To me, the key issue is whether more demand will translate into more supply. Those distributing free money do not seem to have asked this question, which makes me suspect they know very little of the real world (in other words, they are economists).
Say’s law is pretty uncompromising: supply creates demand, not the other way round. So subsidising “consumers” does not ensure there will be any effect on producers. No amount of free money would induce me to purchase more electricity, or buy a car, or invest in a high tech startup.
Trade disintegration, I agree, is the tsunami rolling towards us, and I am most relieved to be largely insulated from it, as I observe from my living room window the 50 hectares of land now being prepared for the winter crops. Your speculation about a new trade system is already becoming a reality, here in the Mediterranean, and so far it seems good and right.
Swarms of locusts in East African countries are threatening the food supply of more than 20 million people at a time when food is already scarce because of the coronavirus pandemic.
Now, experts are looking for creative solutions to deal with the pests — including eating them.
Desert locusts are considered the most destructive migratory pest in the world. They usually live solitary lives in desert environments, but heavy rainfall allowed their eggs to survive in unprecedented numbers this season.
The swarms first appeared in Kenya in late December 2019, with a second wave following in April. The region is now bracing for a third, possibly bigger wave in the weeks ahead. Locusts haven’t been seen at this scale, in these numbers, for 70 years.
According to the United Nations, a locust swarm 1 square kilometer in size can eat the same amount of food in a day as 35,000 people, a devastating amount of destruction for local farmers.
“They have destroyed our maize, our pawpaw tree, so it has given us a hard time,” Kenyan farmer Victor Juma told Reuters.
Some have alluded to Divine Retribution of Biblical accounts….perhaps 2020 is the year of the second coming…
Getting a little carried away here…Praise the Lord
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GYgAhA-3WMk
Fun with charts:
http://moslereconomics-kg5winhhtut.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/unnamed-54.png
“This shows the dependence on federal deficit spending to sustain incomes. Real personal consumption has collapsed-and particularly for services- far more than in 2008/09 even with the increase in personal income from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment compensation. A large part of the reason is that it isn’t safe to go to work and those services simply aren’t available. A financial crisis has been averted, but not an economic collapse.”
http://moslereconomics.com/2020/08/03/personal-income-and-consumption/
http://moslereconomics-kg5winhhtut.stackpathdns.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/unnamed-69.png
http://moslereconomics.com/2020/08/18/housing-starts-japan-consumer-spending-europe-house-prices/
that bifurcation is Q2.
the spike in income to a new record high was about plus 8%.
without the socialist handouts, it would have been minus 5%.
then without the socialist programs, the dotted line would have continued down.
it’s a picture suggesting the near future where incomes are surely headed below that 18.0 level by the end of 2020 or early 2021, unless the USA goes for more socialism.
Is it socialism or survival ? Apparently at the current rate of something drastic is done then collapse comes sooner. Easy to frame it black and white but unfortunately it’s much more complicated
in this economic stage of decreasing net (surplus) energy, it seems that capitalism is failing to find viable capital investments because of that energy fact.
what has been seen in the past few months in the USA is a massive socialist program to provide handouts so that people can survive the devastating response to the virus.
I agree that it’s very complicated, but overall the decreasing energy economy will be hitting the prosperity of the average person, and pushing gov to respond with more handouts.
Trump is no conservative, so he is quite willing to go along with the D side who are all in for socialism.
it’s not too much about survival yet, but more about keeping living standards from falling too fast.
Quit with the Socialism BS. It’s all about deficit spending which started with Reagan and has accelerated big time since “Junior Bush” took office. It’s called the GOP “borrow and spend”. Without deficit spending, USA economic growth would have have stopped many years ago. So how about starting with cutting the Defense budget and eliminating the DHS ? Let’s do it since it’s the most wasteful spending ever seen.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jasonbrett/2020/08/17/between-crypto-libra-stablecoins-and-digital-dollars-congress-introduced-35-blockchain-bills/
According to the article:
Thank you. I read the article with interest until coming to the name “Maxine Waters”, one of the most stupid people in congress . Anything she meddles with will be a disaster for the US and probably a big welfare grab by special interest groups. Groups such as facebook, paypal &c.
“borrow and spend”
I frame it more “loot and steal”——
Casper Weinberger made this an art form, but our current regime is challenging him.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caspar_Weinberger
“It’s all about deficit spending…”
very much so.
without near zero rates on the deficit, the massive 2020 handout program would have been almost impossible.
with near zero rates, the US can continue to support Defense/DHS for a while longer, though shrinkage is coming.
perhaps the coming lost Defense/DHS jobs will be an opportunity for more handouts to the newly unemployed workers.
“It’s called the GOP “borrow and spend”.”
perhaps invented by the Reagan cohort, but keep in mind that in 8 years of O, 2009 thru 2016, the deficit increased by $8 trillion, making the math very simple = $1 trillion per year.
O wan’t going to preside over “stopped” economic growth.
which of course looks like peanuts compared to the non-conservative Trump + D house of reps 2020 total of (what?) $5 trillion this year?
I subscribe to Sober Look too, so I saw the top chart. It truly shows a huge difference. It is hard to keep this up.
There will likely be a turn around in house prices in not too long. But for now, there are a lot of people who want to get out of overly urban areas, or who want more room to work at home. The fall in prices in the highly urban areas is not getting into the average prices yet.
Groasis Waterboxx – an interesting tool for reforesting dry areas
The issue I see is the fact that ecosystems are self-organizing systems. Ones with add-on devices, made by manufacturing using materials from around the world are dependent upon a rich world, able to use fossil fuels for many purposes, including making these devices. These add-on devices are in no way sustainable. In fact, the companies that make these devices are to sustainable either.
The whole system is a green-wash bandaid, I am afraid.
Meanwhile, Back at the Apocalypse Ranch… by Tom Lewis of The Daily Impact
http://www.dailyimpact.net/2020/08/20/meanwhile-back-at-the-apocalypse-ranch/
“…I want to bring you up to date on what else has been happening all this time that we’ve been preoccupied, to reinforce the old adage: remember it always seems darkest just before it gets completely black.”
California is burning…fire
California is burning…heat wave
It’s not just us…Arctic, Amazon, Europe
Water is rising in Florida
Hurricane season is ramping up
Meanwhile, back in Iowa, who needs hurricanes when you have derechos?
Meanwhile in Africa
Finish back in California
“Is God trying to tell us something?”
“Now if despite all this you should find yourself feeling unaccountably good, and hopeful, and optimistic about our future — call me. I’m here for you. I’ll fix it.”
Check out China. It is in a whole lot worse shape. Centered on Wuhan. Perhaps God is talking to Wuhan.
This is why:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10616254/china-rewrite-bible-quran-xi-socialist/
They looked like they were enjoying a big pool party just recently! Pretty much all the media outlets covered it so I won’t bother to choose a link.
California is burning…fire
California is burning…heat wave
It’s not just us…Arctic, Amazon, Europe
Water is rising in Florida
Hurricane season is ramping up
Meanwhile, back in Iowa, who needs hurricanes when you have derechos?
Meanwhile in Africa
Finish back in California
The above is all just weather. It happens on planets with substantial atmospheres.
Remember, one fact in the heat is that there are a lot less aircraft flying these days, which means a lot less contrails. That’s making a lot of places hotter in the daytime.
If God is really upset with us, He will hit us with a big meteor, a comet, or maybe an asteroid. He’s like that.
By the way, there is no effect on the keeling curve for CO2 of the recent reduced fossil fuel consumption.
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/
To make a change takes a long, long time. Oceans absorb most of the CO2.
Have we witnessed any Guy McPherson global dimming phenomena since the lockdowns started?
I thought he was of the mind that we’d see temperatures spike if industrial society slowed down…
Cheers,
-GBV
There’s a fair chance that this year could be the warmest ever. Maybe the decrease in aerosols will play a part.
I think it’s quite possible we’ll see the effect of decreased aerosols manifest in higher daytime temperatures. With less aerosols, when the sun comes out the insolation at ground level will be higher if the air is clear, and also if the humidity is low.
But in a total economic collapse, billions of Indians and Chinese as well as people in other countries will be reduced to burning an awful lot of biomass in the most primitive fashion, which may lead to an increase in the sort of aerosols that create the Asian Brown Cloud, for instance.
Both China and India have reduced their burning of coal. This is a big part of the aerosol reduction. Clearer skies should warm the world up. This issue has been raised in the past:
https://www.scientistswarning.org/2020/06/04/dimming-dilemma/
The removal of aerosols doesn’t alter the equilibrium point of warming but will get us there more quickly.
Messes up farming more quickly, in other words.
There is a relationship between weather and climate.
Sounds a lot like the firing of Professor Scott Nearing of the Wharton Business School
June 16, 1915 University of Pennsylvania Fires Scott Nearing Over Radical Economic Views
The University of Pennsylvania on this day fired Professor Scott Nearing, an economist with the Wharton School of Business, because members of the Trustees were upset over his radical views on economics.
Nearing then taught at the University of Toledo, but was fired in 1917 because of his vocal opposition to U.S. participation in World War I.
Over the next 66 years, until his death, Nearning became a noted freelance political radical, prolific writer, speaker, and environmentalist. In 1970 he and his wife Helen published an acclaimed book, Living the Good Life: How to Live Sanely and Simply in a Troubled World. Nearing died in August 1983, at the age 100 years and 18 days.
In 1973, the University of Pennsylvania retroactively reversed its dismissal and made him an Honorary Emeritus Professor of Economics.
The Nearings left NYC during the depression when Scott was fired for his political views and built a homestead in rural Vermont by hand. They built stone structures and survived by selling blue berries they grew on their small farm.They were avowed communists and if most people lived up to their standards communism might actually have worked. Most people do not.
The information technology faculty in Bratislava, the top of its kind in Slovakia, in a deep crisis:
https://enrsi.rtvs.sk/articles/society/229137/a-faculty-in-crisis-at-the-slovak-university-of-technology
A faculty in crisis at the Slovak University of Technology
“In June of this year, one of Slovakia’s most respected university faculties, STU’s Faculty of Informatics and Information Technologies, suddenly lost two-thirds of its academic staff, with eight of them dismissed and 18 resigning in protest – this among the latest developments in a crisis that has engulfed the faculty since January, when the former dean, Maria Bielikova, was fired from her academic post without warning by the new dean, Ivan Kotuliak. The crisis has polarised members of the faculty and led to a formal proposal by the University Rector that the new dean be removed from his post. Jonathan McCormick speaks with several people close to the situation, on both sides, to learn how the crisis reached this critical point, and what impact all this could have on the future of the faculty.”
The conflict reached the point that one person does not want to see another person:
“Ja viem spolupracovať s každým, komu budem vedieť dôverovať. Momentálne už som sa s dekanom Kotuliakom nerozprávala pol roka, odkazuje mi cez rôznych ľudí, že ma nechce vidieť, tak dosť ťažko by som mohla začať obnovovať dôveru, ale ja som vždy pripravená,” dodáva Mária Bieliková o spolupráci svojho nového Kempelenovho inštitútu informačných technológií s fakultou, z ktorej ju dekan Kotuliak vyhodil.”
https://video.sme.sk/c/22471961/profesorka-bielikova-rozvratom-na-fiit-sa-mi-otvorili-oci-video.html
“Chinese rare earths producer Shenghe Resources Holding Co is set to lose tens of millions of dollars after reporting that “once-in-a-century” flooding in southwest Sichuan province had shut down plants and damaged inventory.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/china-floods-rare-earths/update-1-china-rare-earths-firm-shenghe-hit-by-once-in-a-century-flooding-idUSL4N2FL3F3
“In the face of an imminent food crisis in China, the anchor of CCTV, Bai Yansong, has spoken out saying that the Chinese people need to restore the feeling of hunger. His opinion was broadcasted by state-run media recently and has been met with fierce reactions from the public. ”
https://www.theepochtimes.com/chinese-media-call-to-revive-sense-of-hunger_3467933.html
The video (5:44 minutes) with this article says quite a bit more than the printed article.
There are several reasons that a shortage of food supply is forecast. Part of it relates to the lack of planting/production during the COVID epidemic. Part of it relates to the flooding, which seems to be very widespread in grain-producing regions. Part of it relates to the government donating grain to other countries, such as Russia, when the grain really is needed at home. Part of it is the result of corrupt officials either stealing what was supposed to be food in storage to be used in hard time, or substituting inedible food for good food. Whenever an inspection is scheduled, these storage areas mysteriously burn down, shortly before the scheduled inspection.
The government is trying to push the idea of frugality, especially in food use. But there is pushback to this idea.
Odd – the video is making a point about 163 tonnes of grain exported to Russia. 163 tonnes is nothing. Imports are measured in the 100 M of tonnes.
In their news bulletin on Monday, Crossroads reported that 300 M people are at risk of food shortages in China. I have no idea where that figure came from.
The floods have been ongoing since June and are maxing out this week. Worst ever in some areas. A few weeks ago 5M hectares (50,000 sq Km) reportedly flooded. Should be a bit more now. The BBC said back in July it relates to warmer than usual sea temperatures south of China.
This is how the BBC reported this coming catastrophe yesterday. Is this some sort of dark humour I don’t understand?
China record floods wet feet of Leshan Giant Buddha
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-53831271
I expect that it is more the idea that rice is being exported that is the problem. Excess use by high-ranking officials is also mentioned, but that can’t amount to much either. I expect that people are shocked and unhappy about the situation, and looking for anything to blame. The BBC report doesn’t say a whole lot. The highest flood in 70 years near the Budda. I had read earlier about the biggest flood since 1998. It is clear that big floods are common here. Adding more and more dams probably tends to make the situation worse not better, at least in very wet years. More and more building in the flood plain, so more to be destroyed by floods.
Gail, high ranking officials can do a lot of damage in a shortage. As well as hoarding for themselves and their numerous hanger on, they can hoard so as to sell on the black market at inflated prices.Revisionist history to the contrary, exactly that happened during the Bengal famine of 1943. At the time, Bengal had full internal self government, so a million Bengalis were starved by their own people in power, who then blamed Winston Churchill.
Good point!
One supposes it is an attempt to resurrect nostalgia for ‘heroic communist self-denial and endurance’ and all that rubbish.
But times have changed, surely: the old ideology no longer has the potential for mass-motivation, and many Chinese have tasted the good life of ample rice and plenty of pork for a decade or two now.
The people which invented money can’t by definition be communist. The communist regime is a construct.
Just imagine a Taiwan with 1.4B people. They’d guzzle up all the FF’s and create wealth in an unprecedented rate, well, at least until it depletes. The commies in charge are there to make sure it won’t happen.
I would wonder how much of the world’s production will be lost because of flooding. China is by far the largest producer in the world. This is an article talking about countries producing rare earth minerals today.
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/critical-metals-investing/rare-earth-investing/rare-earth-producing-countries/
Gail,
It would be interesting to know what percentage of production went into wind turbines, supposedly they are a net loss of energy so overall not a loss. Basically if I understand things, it is the conversion of oil into magnets and tremendous pollution in doing so.
The US was at one time a large producer of rare earth minerals especially neodymium, even now it is produced in the US but sent to China for processing. Processing is a very dirty process so in terms of Limits to Growth, the US has outsourced this mess. It would appear new mines are being opened in the US.
https://www.mining.com/round-top-to-establish-us-rare-earths-supply-chain/
China depleted its coal and oil, and imported pollution as part of going the first world. There are seldom easy choices.
Dennis L.
I found this chart of uses of rare earth elements in the United States in 2017 on this site: https://geology.com/articles/rare-earth-elements/
https://geology.com/articles/rare-earth-elements/uses-of-rare-earth-elements.gif
The paragraph below it says:
There is no mention of wind turbines in this writeup. Yet, when wind turbines are discussed, there is discussion of using less of the rare earth elements by using smaller and lighter magnets. https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-blog/implications-rare-earth-wind-energy-market/
I would deduce that wind turbine use is a subset of motor and generator use.
YOU
Gail, I suggest the problem is not with wind power, but with (a) energy conversion, and (b) long distance transmission of energy. Windmills have been used effectively for a long time: to grind corn, to pump water, even to pump oil (I actually saw that in Texas; amazing). This works because there is no energy conversion, and a system run purely by mechanical energy can be made 90% efficient.
The problem of demand remote from supply is also not insurmountable. The Romans pulled water out of rivers purely with mechanical energy, indeed with the energy of the river itself, turning a noria. This lifted water into the leader of an aqueduct, and it could then run downhill all the way to the city.
As so often, the big show stopper, the one hardly anybody seems willing to confront, is the belief that energy must be moved through a “grid”, and that this implies exclusively electrical energy. Nobody seems to notice that there is no “grid” filling their car with petrol.
I agree. Wind works well for tasks that can easily be intermittent, such as pumping water or grinding grain.
Some people seem to think wind can be used for making and storing hydrogen for later use, but I am doubtful this arrangement would work. Too many parts to the whole system, each of which needs to be built and maintained. Making ammonia might make more sense.
The grid has a huge cost involved. Not the least is some approach must be taken to make certain that underbrush does not accumulate in the vicinity of the transmission lines. If they do, any spark (from a lightening strike or from an electric transmission line with a faulty connection) will cause a fire and bring down the system. We have had a policy of suppressing forest fires. If we didn’t have this policy, the fires would keep the underbrush down. Now, we have a bigger and bigger problem keeping forest fires away from transmission lines and populated areas. California and Australia are two different examples of this issue.
Ever since Gail visited China, it has done nothing but go downhill. Swine fever, riots in Hong Kong, covid-19, floods, you name it. I’m beginning to think she was sent there as a secret agent to collapse the country. I expect Xi Jinping is furious with her and is planning some sort of retribution.
I recall her being in Sweden not so long ago and then “Circular Economy” became official government utopia even though she most certainly objected to the hopiums and delusions put forth. But, hey, why should the bandit sect listen to bad news.
The hologenome theory of evolution may in a general way interest finite worlders.
We foresee the ultimate collapse of modern industrial civilisation and the congruent necessity of an eventual transition to radically different socio-economic communities. Obviously humans have adapted genetically to changes in human culture starting with neolithic agriculture, through the metal ages, classical civilisation, feudal times and now industrialism. That poses the question how well humans will be genetically adapted to either a reversion to hunter-gathering or to whatever socio-economic dispositions will follow collapse. The quicker and more efficient the adaptation, presumably ‘the better’ from the human perspective.
Hologenomics have rebooted Larmarckism, which is the theory that adaptive traits acquired by individuals during their lifetime (not only by heredity) may be biologically transmitted to their progeny. Lamarckism was discounted in the joint mathematical model of the modern evolutionary synthesis of Darwinism and Mendelianism that allows variation only through sexual recombination, chromosomal rearrangement and mutation. Hologenomics allows for that traits acquired by the individual during its lifetime may be transmitted both vertically (hereditary) and horizontally (shared to others). “The hologenome theory, therefore, is said by its proponents to incorporate Lamarckian aspects within a Darwinian framework.”
One may consider whether that would allow, at least in part, for a more rapid and successful adaptation to novel, post-collapse socio-economic conditions than we may have feared. Admittedly, I may be in quack territory here, especially in terms of some general, socially beneficial implication of epochal significance. In other ‘news’, modern classical composers now commonly release their recordings on minimal techno/ ambient labels and so classical music has become in a sense a sub-genre of acid house. But it does not hurt to suggest the possibility of some grounds for optimism.
I was diverted to the matter of Lamarckism because Nietzsche, whom I am studying, seems to assume it in his concern for personal self-growth and the improvement of the breed, and indeed that is a growing consensus although it is a matter of debate among some academics. It seemed that Lamarckism was a dodo but maybe not.
I will simply quote wiki for an explanation of Hologenomics – rather than try to paraphrase the following.
> Hologenome theory of evolution
The hologenome theory of evolution[1][2][3][4] recasts the individual animal or plant (and other multicellular organisms) as a community or a “holobiont” – the host plus all of its symbiotic microbes. Consequently, the collective genomes of the holobiont form a “hologenome”. Holobionts and hologenomes are structural entities[5] that replace misnomers in the context of host-microbiota symbioses such as superorganism (i.e., an integrated social unit composed of conspecifics), organ, and metagenome. Variation in the hologenome may encode phenotypic plasticity of the holobiont and can be subject to evolutionary changes caused by selection and drift, if portions of the hologenome are transmitted between generations with reasonable fidelity. One of the important outcomes of recasting the individual as a holobiont subject to evolutionary forces is that genetic variation in the hologenome can be brought about by changes in the host genome and also by changes in the microbiome, including new acquisitions of microbes, horizontal gene transfers, and changes in microbial abundance within hosts. Although there is a rich literature on binary host–microbe symbioses, the hologenome concept distinguishes itself by including the vast symbiotic complexity inherent in many multicellular hosts. For recent literature on holobionts and hologenomes published in an open access platform, see the following reference…
Neo-Lamarckism within a Darwinian context
Lamarckism, the concept that an organism can pass on characteristics that it acquired during its lifetime to its offspring (also known as inheritance of acquired characteristics or soft inheritance) incorporated two common ideas of its time:
Use and disuse – individuals lose characteristics they do not require (or use) and develop characteristics that are useful.
Inheritance of acquired traits – individuals inherit the traits of their ancestors.
Although Lamarckian theory was rejected by the neo-Darwinism of the modern evolutionary synthesis in which evolution occurs through random variations being subject to natural selection, the hologenome theory has aspects that harken back to Lamarckian concepts. In addition to the traditionally recognized modes of variation (i.e. sexual recombination, chromosomal rearrangement, mutation), the holobiont allows for two additional mechanisms of variation that are specific to the hologenome theory: (1) changes in the relative population of existing microorganisms (i.e. amplification and reduction) and (2) acquisition of novel strains from the environment, which may be passed on to offspring.[33]
Changes in the relative population of existing microorganisms corresponds to Lamarckian “use and disuse”, while the ability to acquire novel strains from the environment, which may be passed on to offspring, corresponds to Lamarckian “inheritance of acquired traits”. The hologenome theory, therefore, is said by its proponents to incorporate Lamarckian aspects within a Darwinian framework.[33]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hologenome_theory_of_evolution
Lamarckism and epigenetics do seem to have things in common.
I enjoyed Rupert Sheldrake’s book ‘The Presence of the Past: Morphic Resonance and the Habits of Nature’.
Four key elements of this theory: the hologenome allows the holobiont to adapt to environmental demands; it thus allows for rapid adaptation; the adaptation is heritable; time is thus afforded for the host genome to adapt.
One might wonder whether this theory has some practical application in the purposeful introduction of microbiome genomes – like plug-ins. Hmm, I am likely pursuing this into crank territory. I seem to remember studies of identical twins raised apart that indicated that human gut bacteria are determined by the host genome. In any case our understanding of the function of genes is still limited, let alone billions of guest genes. I will have to look into this further.
> The hologenome concept of evolution after 10 years
Abstract
The holobiont (host with its endocellular and extracellular microbiome) can function as a distinct biological entity, an additional organismal level to the ones previously considered, on which natural selection operates. The holobiont can function as a whole: anatomically, metabolically, immunologically, developmentally, and during evolution. Consideration of the holobiont with its hologenome as an independent level of selection in evolution has led to a better understanding of underappreciated modes of genetic variation and evolution. The hologenome is comprised of two complimentary parts: host and microbiome genomes. Changes in either genome can result in variations that can be selected for or against. The host genome is highly conserved, and genetic changes within it occur slowly, whereas the microbiome genome is dynamic and can change rapidly in response to the environment by increasing or reducing particular microbes, by acquisition of novel microbes, by horizontal gene transfer, and by mutation. Recent experiments showing that microbiota can play an initial role in speciation have been suggested as an additional mode of enhancing evolution. Some of the genetic variations can be transferred to offspring by a variety of mechanisms. Strain-specific DNA analysis has shown that at least some of the microbiota can be maintained across hundreds of thousands of host generations, implying the existence of a microbial core. We argue that rapid changes in the microbiome genome could allow holobionts to adapt and survive under changing environmental conditions thus providing the time necessary for the host genome to adapt and evolve. As Darwin wrote, “It is not the strongest of the species that survives but the most adaptable”.
https://microbiomejournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40168-018-0457-9
you may be wrong about the speed of change in evolutionary terms
it has always been necessary for the human species to evolve slowly—-over millenia,
we cannot evolve quickly, we are not physically or mentally equipped to do so.
we will not ‘evolve’ from industrial existence to an agricultural existence because we lack the means to do it.
i cannot unlearn my ‘industrial’ knowledge and ‘relearn’ to grow my own food—i would starve to death.
as would billions of other people.
10000 years from now, the transition will have taken place, and people will ‘know” nothing else.
but that’s another story. Maybe by then billions of people from our time will likely have starved to death—and will have become the focus of campfire legends as we complain about the weather getting colder each year
“Hologenomics have rebooted Larmarckism, which is the theory that adaptive traits acquired by individuals during their lifetime (not only by heredity) may be biologically transmitted to their progeny.”
In other words, it is a total fraud. It is also an insult to the memory of all the honest men who died in the Gulag because they supported Darwin against Trofim Lysenko.
Sorry, I messed up the previous post by including (left and right arrows) which confuses WordPress. Maybe Gail could delete that post please?
“Trofim Lysenko”
Thanks for that, fascinating stuff, the influence of ideology on science in USSR. The individual basis of inheritance a la Mendel was considered to be ‘bourgeois pseudo-science’ – big mistake.
I can see how Lamarckism could appeal to other inclusive ideologies, but by the same token, we should stick to science and avoid ideology.
“Discoveries in the field of epigenetics were sometimes raised as alleged late confirmation of Lysenko theory, but in spite of the apparent high-level similarity (heritable traits passed without DNA alterations), Lysenko believed that environment-induced changes are the primary mechanism of heritability, rather than DNA whose existence he denied. Heritable epigenetic effects were found but are minor as compared to genetic and often unstable.” wiki
Darwinian selection remains the mechanism of selection for hologenomics. The question is one of whether there is selection only of the host genome or also of the microbiomic genome, which does not seem contrary to Darwinism. Epigenetics also postulates a Darwinian selection in transmission over evolutionary time.
Q uote:
But recent discoveries have exhibited a remarkably Lamarckian flavor. One example is the CRISPR-Cas system, which enables bacteria to pass information about viruses they have encountered to their offspring. There are also clear-cut examples of transgenerational epigenetic inheritance, in which higher animals affected by environmental factors transmit favorable genetic changes to their offspring across generations. Such mechanisms make sense to us as designers: An animal should pass on, in its genes, information that it has gained about the environment. Such discoveries have sparked debate about the possibility of an update to the Modern Synthesis. Is there a role for Lamarckian mechanisms in modern evolutionary theory?
At the level of specific mechanisms, yes. At a deeper level of causes, though, the answer is a resounding “no” — natural selection reigns supreme. How can that be, you ask? The simplistic juxtaposition of Darwin and Lamarck in elementary biology courses is a false equivalence. If Lamarckian patterns of inheritance do exist, and are indeed beneficial to the organism (that is, they are evolutionary adaptations), then the only way that they could have arisen and been maintained over evolutionary time is by Darwinian natural selection.
https://www.quantamagazine.org/can-darwinian-evolution-explain-lamarckism-20170511/
The hologenome theory of evolution seems perfectly reasonable to me.
For example, people start drinking cow’s milk in an area. The microbiome adapts to the milk drinking, and perhaps is part of what allows the ability to digest lactose without problems. (I am speculating here). The microbiome can to somewhat spread to those a person lives with and to their children. I don’t know if lactose intolerance is a real issue that might be mitigated, but it seems like changes of this type could be made more easily with the help of the microbiome.
Gail, most of the stuff we ingest is digested in part by the bacteria in out system. This is neither Lamarckism nor hologenome theory: it is simple symbiosis. The bacteria evolve in the usual Darwinian way: those better able to digest, say, milk preferentially survive. And are then passed on to the next generation. How? Quite simple: through mother’s milk, which his how babies get their lactic acid bacteria.
And another reason many Americans are so unhealthy is that the baby formula companies have spent billions trying to discourage breast feeding in favour of bottle feeding. They have been especially successful with poor inner city people, which explains why so many blacks are indeed lactose intolerant. Their cousins in Africa mostly are not, for the obvious reason.
“That poses the question how well humans will be genetically adapted to either a reversion to hunter-gathering or to whatever socio-economic dispositions will follow collapse. The quicker and more efficient the adaptation, presumably ‘the better’ from the human perspective.”
if it becomes all hunter-gatherer in this decade, then I won’t survive, and almost everyone won’t survive.
but I’m very certain that living among us right now are a select amount of people who will survive.
some of those who own guns, who hunt, who have prepared bug-out bags, in other words the toughest among us, not softies like me.
a small portion of humans in IC are still adapted to be hunter-gatherers.
also, this hints at neuroplasticity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuroplasticity
if the toughest among us are thrown out of IC into a hunter-gatherer situation, their brains might further adapt to the new survival situation.
Markets have been distorted by CBs, decoupled from reality
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TA8_O7SySwo
From Bloomberg
Interesting interview!
People went into this situation thinking it was a “one round game.” You close down the economy for a short time, get rid of the virus, and go on with your life without the virus. Really, it is a very long term game, with many rounds. The strategy needs to be quite different.
People forget, when looking at the situation, that people’s perception of the health risk of going out doesn’t change, once they have been scared to death. In fact, the health risk is changing with new treatments and new understanding. Also, there is a need for a change, in a multi-round game. The old strategy doesn’t work.
People in the UK have been given the impression that all is close to well in the UK with the published 3% unemployment rate. This is really a distorted number, held up by salary continuation programs. (I expect this is an issue in quite a few other countries as well.)
People are beginning to see that government bonds are not really risk free. They really need a basket of different types of assets, including gold, to try to reduce their risk.
Regarding price changes in commodities, he sees the demand side as the problem, not the supply side. Prices will stay lower than people expect.
Oh boy, seems it’s not slam dunk trial case after all!😜
LA Times
‘He killed himself’: A defense argument emerges in the George Floyd case
Richard Read
August 20, 2020, 6:00 AM EDT
Legal experts said that defense strategy is not as far-fetched as it may seem, especially given that juries have been reluctant to convict police in on-duty killings.
“This is not a slam dunk for the prosecution and not an easy case, especially for the higher-degree homicide charges,” said Philip Stinson, a Bowling Green State University criminologist and former cop who studies police misconduct. “If this case goes to trial and an officer testifies on his own behalf, it is possible there is reasonable doubt there for jurors.”
No case in modern times has reverberated through society like that of Floyd, a 46-year-old Black man whose death on May 25 confirmed for many a longstanding national pattern of police racism and abuse.
Protests quickly spread, becoming the largest in U.S. history and extending to more than 60 countries in support of the Black Lives Matter movement.
All four officers were fired and are free on bail. Attorneys for Chauvin, Kueng and Thao declined to comment, as did prosecutors in the case.
Free to speak publicly since a judge lifted a gag order on all parties in the case, Gray said he plans to argue that Floyd died from an overdose of the powerful opioid fentanyl and an underlying heart condition.
“We are going to show that my client and the other cops were doing their jobs,” he said.
The veteran criminal defense attorney said he will base his case on toxicology and autopsy reports as well as recently released police body camera footage that offers a fuller picture than the cellphone videos taken by people on the street.
What a strange world we live in folks….get ready for more rumble
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=I6eQ78HCGEA
If these police officers are acquitted, and set free….
It sounds like the defense has a very good case. It should be a very very interesting trial. And if these four police officers are exonerated, no doubt there’ll be another round of dancing, singing, looting and burning in the streets.
I wonder if it will be shown live on Teevee like when O.J. Simpson was found not guilty of killing Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman, stabbing her seven times in the face and slitting her throat so violently that she was almost decapitated?
But I’m more focused on the Jussie Smollett case. Like Nicole and Ron’s killer, Jusssie’ MAGA hat-wearing would be lynchers are out there somewhere. Or not, as the case may be.
Even as we go downhill, and we during the Great Depression, technological advances never stopped. We must hope that these and AI and quantum computing will lead to some kind of liftoff. Already even my electric toothbrush with a lithium battery is lasting far longer without recharging than the old nickel battery version. Now along come zinc batteries to perform even better.
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/robot-batteries-humans-biomorphic-robotics-fat-reserves-a9678576.html
Extracts:
Researchers at the University of Michigan – funded by the US Department of Defense – developed a new rechargeable zinc battery that integrates into the structure of a robot in order to free up space and reduce weight that conventional lithium-ion batteries create.
“Robot designs are restricted by the need for batteries that often occupy 20 per cent or more of the available space inside a robot, or account for a similar proportion of the robot’s weight,” said Nicholas Kotov, a professor of engineering who led the research.
The use of structural batteries can also be used in everything from drones to delivery robots, with Professor Kotov claiming the new zinc batteries could double the range of such robots immediately.
“This is not the limit, however,” said Mingqiang Wang, a visiting researcher at Professor Kotov’s lab. “We estimate that robots could have 72-times more power capacity if their exteriors were replaced with zinc batteries, compared to having a single lithium-ion battery.”
I am considering donating Xabier and Robert Firth as humans to be transformed into bio-robots. You can just imagine them screaming ‘Are we not MEN?!’, as they resist the excruciating transformation, just like the man-beasts in ‘The Island of Doctor Moreau’. 😉
Does that mean i get to date Fairuza Balk?
‘Does that mean i get to date Fairuza Balk?’
Yes – as a PUNISHMENT!
Anyone born in Point Reyes can’t be all bad—-
Touché!
Assuming your comment was ‘tongue in cheek; Malcopian, it brings to mind Kryten in Red Dwarf
“Where you goin Kryten?” says the crew
“I’m just going to change my head sirs.”
Robot designs are restricted. Period.
I sometimes think most people who watch ‘Terminator’ go away convinced that robots will be able to do that, if only we crack the ‘technology’ problem—bigger batteries???
maybe most of our problems have been created by ”seeing’ solutions in cg artwork and movies.
you want a city on Mars?—-nooooo problem. CGI—thereya go. And eejits believe it.
Starwars? The Don (the manchild-in chief) wants a space corps. And more eejits nod in assent to his wonderful idea.
Terminator is a robot, Terminator stops truck with his hand—so it must be possible. Or we can make it true with a bit of ‘technology’.
Robots are restricted by the laws of Physics,. ‘Humanoid’ robots will fall over if certain forces are exceeded. Just like human beings.
“Robots are restricted by the laws of Physics,. ‘Humanoid’ robots will fall over if certain forces are exceeded. Just like human beings.”
You’re not thinking hard enough. Who in 1944 would have believed what could be achieved in 1945 with a piece of uranium the size of an apple?
If you watch the History Channel’s series ‘dent i fied Uni’ – about yoo-foes (censured word here, hence the misspellings), you might wonder just what physics will support.
The flexibility of the robots is still a problem in the machinery industry: if the production of a company has got a big variability, i.e. no big series of products, the programming of the robots is uneconomical and the human workers with low wages easily compete the robots.
Only the mass production with small variability is reserved to robots. The costly programming makes their use uneconomical.
‘The costly programming makes their use uneconomical.’
For now. Don’t rule out the future and what quantum computers might bring.
It can be so, we do not know how lońg the system can continue.
Until then, some pruchasing power is needed for the products produced by the robots.
We are flooded by the products, while with the ageing populations and the energy decline, the purchasing power falls.
Well, quantum computers can handle 3X5=15.
Not much beyond that currently.
I would like a quantum computer that works for me:
“How much is 3 times 5?”
“How much do you want it to be, Signor Corleone?”
Automating away the artisanry is quite possibly not worth the effort, carpenters and engineers are quite hands-on struggling with the quirks and practicalities of objective reality. All repetitive and mundane mental work, however is. The bourgeoisie is going away in an alarming rate.
It is the path toward technofeudality. Or in reality is actually already a matter of fact.
The POTUS doctrine is basically all game theory run by supercompute.
It is mostly irrelevant to try automate into absurdity when the Machine becomes self aware. The shift will be so radical it is impossible to imagine.
Kiss good bye to mankind as we know it today.
er
an atomic bomb is a single uncontrolled explosion of energy.
that’s all an a bomb does
If I was an olympic level marathon runner, I would be using my food energy intake to produce a controlled explosion of energy lasting 2hours over a 24 mile distance. Or play a mozart concerto. (that would be nice)
My metabolism would allow me to do that, because my human physique is arranged that way.
If I tried to concentrate that 2 hours of energy output into an single burst of energy to lift a car over my head, i would likely die because my metabolism couldn’t take it.
My physical configuration would make me collapse.
you can build a robot that will lift a car 6ft in the air–but you need a different robot to move 24 mile in 2 hours, or play a piano
all to do with shape and configuration
And all require energy input by human intellect
which is why the laws of physics do not allow you to build a terminator
and to add a little more to the robot-pot
robots might in theory make things cheaper, and dispense with workers, but robots do not buy ‘stuff’ or live in houses or pay taxes.
robots just ‘produce’
having unlimited robots is like having access to unlimited energy. (another OFW fantasy)
Ultimately it has no final ‘purpose’.
If your robots make widgets, then until those widgets are sold, they are worth nothing. Robots only make widgets, they do not buy widgets. Value is created ONLY at the point of sale and use.
That applies to any commodity. It seems difficult to grasp.
‘Markets’ are sustained only by workers converting one energy form into another. That is what forms the basis of wages.
Robots are not paid wages, hence they ultimately destroy markets.
How and why?
Because production must increase year on year until ,we reach a point where no further consumption is possible. (ie saturation)
Then the market collapses irrespective of how many robots are put into use
Exactly.
When the need for products declines due to the falling purchasing power of the human population, the need for robots collapses.
‘having unlimited robots is like having access to unlimited energy. (another OFW fantasy)’
Where did I ever talk about ‘unilmited robots’ ? You’re wantonly wandering off-point again.
Many robots doesn’t provide unlimited demand, however. That is what we need.
‘an atomic bomb is a single uncontrolled explosion of energy.
that’s all an a bomb does’
To that extent I chose a bad example. I was focusing on the technological ingenuity of the thing, not the end product. I could have chosen quantum mechanics as used in electronic products, or even the internet itself. But I think you were deliberately avoiding my point,
Yes, the Marxist analysis of the current era isn’t really valid. It breaks down when the proletariat becomes the artisanry sharing the same life style as the masters of puppets.
As long as there is surplus natural resources, there is room for the bourgeoisie pretending to care about the poor and exploited with their sanctimonious hypocrisy.
Once hard resource constraint hits or technological advancement becomes sufficient. It’s time to kiss good be to a bunch of useless eaters. They’ll be on UBI together with the unskilled labor doing repetitive physical work.
“Who in 1944 would have believed what could be achieved in 1945 with a piece of uranium the size of an apple?”
H G Wells believed it in “The World Set Free”, published in 1914, though his bombs were made from radium. And Morgan Robertson explored the same theme in “Beyond the Spectrum”, describing a Pacific war between Japan and the US.
Or how about this one: “Might a bomb no bigger than an orange be found to possess a secret power to destroy a whole block of buildings – nay to concentrate the force of a thousand tons of cordite and blast a township at a stroke?”. Winston Churchill, in 1924.
Nice, Robbie the Firthy Robot. 😉
It may seem stupid, but when I used to fly through Atlanta, one of my favorite enjoyments was listening to the Robbie the Robot voice on the Atlanta airport interterminal trains. Sadly, they changed it to a more human voice and I was sorely disappointed.
Master, remember that my humble positronic brain cannot understand compliments. But more oil is always good.
“If 2005 is the year we can see the old world on its way out, then 2008 is the year it was executed [weren’t we hitting some conventional crude oil supply limits at about this time? 😃].
“2008 is the year of the great crash, the first crisis of the global economy. The crash exposed not only structural flaws in individual economies, but also the structure of the global economy itself: financially interdependent, underpinned by the dollar and by the Federal Reserve as the lender of last resort, and with truly international supply chains.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/08/brexit-trump-china-90s-golden-era/615406/
“A World Trade Organization index tracking merchandise slumped to a record low in the second quarter, signaling that a V-shaped recovery is unlikely for global trade.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/wto-index-trade-record-low-signals-v-shaped-recovery-unlikely-2020-8?r=US&IR=T
This is an image from the WTO site:
https://www.wto.org/images/img_mews/wtoi19820c1_e.png
The chart doesn’t make it very clear but it’s worth remembering that global trade volumes were already contracting in 2019. They declined 0.4% in that year, according to the CPB World Trade Monitor.
The global economy entered this crisis with considerable vulnerabilities, unfortunately.
Good point!
“…a new study …concludes that systemic risk is not just a problem for financial institutions.
“In “Systemic Risk in the Broad Economy,” released earlier this summer, a team of Rand Corp. economists argued that systemic risk — the ability of small, seemingly isolated risks to grow and spread across heavily interconnected systems — extends beyond the financial sector.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2020/08/19/commentary/japan-commentary/japan-china-supply-chain-coronavirus/
“…a new study …concludes that systemic risk is not just a problem for financial institutions.”
It seems to me that financial institutions are the only ones immune to systemic risk. If the risk becomes real, the institutions will be bailed out by bags of fiat money conveniently created by governments, the World Bank, the IMF, and of course the Federal Reserve. Every other institution, whose essential inputs cannot be created by the printing press, are the ones exposed to risk.
“Every other institution, whose essential inputs cannot be created by the printing press, are the ones exposed to risk”.
Yes, structural change imminent transforming the centralist globalist world order. If this goes down the tubes due to accident, disease or natural disaster, nukes will fly, which will end it all for an unfathomable long time. I have a hard time imagining anyone would be interested in this outcome.
Losing the airline industry would seem like it would be a systemic risk, for example.
Not to worry,we can go back to sea transport. Luxurious passenger liners about 270m long and weighing 52,000 tonnes, with lots of watertight compartments to ensure they are unsinkable. Oops.
The ice bergs of physical reality rips into the hull of relentless globalization. What could possibly go wrong? We got life boats for everybody, right?
“Offshore oil servicers are going bust at the fastest pace in three years as explorers spurn high-cost drilling to deal with a worldwide slump in commodity prices…
“Noble Corp. and Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. have filed for Chapter 11 since the start of the pandemic-driven oil downturn…”
https://gcaptain.com/offshore-crisis-recent-failures-have-created-a-massive-30-billion-financial-risk/
“Valaris Plc became the latest casualty of the global slump in oil prices, filing for bankruptcy Wednesday as the world’s largest offshore rig owner by fleet size seeks to restructure a roughly $7 billion debt load.”
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/8/19/valaris-world-s-largest-offshore-rig-owner-declares-bankruptcy
“A push by President Donald Trump and the world’s biggest oil producers to shore up crude prices has failed to stop an avalanche of bankruptcies in the industry, and more are still to come.”
https://www.newsbreak.com/news/2043832363190/trump-and-opec-couldnt-stop-american-oil-industrys-breakdown
“Chaparral Energy Inc.’s filed for bankruptcy protection for the second time in four years, paving the way for bondholders to take control of the Oklahoma driller in the aftermath of sluggish oil prices.”
https://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/8/17/shale-driller-chapparal-energy-files-bankruptcy
Bankruptcies are the natural consequence of oversupply. They reduce supply, and hence raise prices for the supply that remains. The free market correcting itself, as it usually does if left alone by politicians.
This is going to be the big story! I am shocked that it is not getting more attention. Well maybe I shouldn’t be…
Angela Merkel protests. She has plenty of rather expensive cars to peddle to Club South and Club Far East.
Time to crack open the pension funds of Club Central and Club North, send the loot down south so that Stuttgart can continue churning wares nobody wants anymore.
Do you really suggest that team lebensraum is in a tough spot?
Squeezed by the vicious sea faring island monkeys to the west, the cunning Russian bear and savage Ottoman to the east. While the Han is cornered by the fat blokes with big sticks and deep pockets over the pond? 🤔
Impossible. This couldn’t happen. Nein! Nein! 🤣
oil has no value until it is used
a painful lesson to learn
Yes, bankruptcies are everywhere in the oil industry.
And the Middle East is doing terribly as well, but this plays out in a different way. Sending migrants home. Cutting back projects and subsidies. More borrowing.
“Genting Hong Kong, one of the territory’s leading cruise ship operators, has halted payments on debts of almost $3.4bn in the latest financial blow for an industry that has been devastated by the coronavirus pandemic.”
https://www.ft.com/content/224cf641-f029-4d23-b24b-159f257294b8
“Investors who bought new bonds last week from Carnival Corporation, backed by a claim on its fleet of ships, may soon find that some of that collateral has floated away….
“…investors that bought the latest bond may see their claim on those assets [ie its fleet of ships] come under threat, due to an unusual provision that could turn some of that secured debt into unsecured debt.”
https://www.ft.com/content/5f4bb852-d08a-4623-b912-180e2957fecd
It is hard to see how any of the cruise ship operators can make a living any more.
“The collapse of a Mexican lender is spurring concern about risks for the banking system just as the country sinks into its deepest recession in almost a century under the watch of a financial regulator that’s been hobbled by austerity…
“Banco Famsa will need a bailout of almost $1 billion… The threat to banks has grown amid Mexico’s pandemic-driven recession…”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-19/mexico-bank-collapse-shows-huge-risk-after-amlo-guts-regulator
“In its decades-long effort to prod financiers to loosen up and lend more to defeat deflation, the Bank of Japan is trying a new tack: incentivizing them with bonuses.”
https://asiatimes.com/2020/08/covid-hit-japan-now-paying-banks-to-lend/
“Lend when they don’t want to lend” would seem to be equivalent to giving money to groups that cannot pay the money back.
Mexico already had a problem with declining oil supply and a declining price of oil, before the pandemic hit.