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No politician wants to tell us the real story of fossil fuel depletion. The real story is that we are already running short of oil, coal and natural gas because the direct and indirect costs of extraction are reaching a point where the selling price of food and other basic necessities needs to be unacceptably high to make the overall economic system work. At the same time, wind and solar and other “clean energy” sources are nowhere nearly able to substitute for the quantity of fossil fuels being lost.
This unfortunate energy story is essentially a physics problem. Energy per capita and, in fact, resources per capita, must stay high enough for an economy’s growing population. When this does not happen, history shows that civilizations tend to collapse.
Politicians cannot possibly admit that today’s world economy is headed for collapse, in a way similar to that of prior civilizations. Instead, they need to provide the illusion that they are in charge. The self-organizing system somehow leads politicians to put forward reasons why the changes ahead might be desirable (to avert climate change), or at least temporary (because of sanctions against Russia).
In this post, I will try to try to explain at least a few of the issues involved.
[1] Citizens around the world can sense that something is very wrong. It looks like the economy may be headed for a serious recession in the near term.
Consumer sentiment is at an extraordinarily low level, worse than during the 2008-2009 great recession according to a chart (Figure 2) shown on the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers website. According to the same website, nearly 48% of consumers blame inflation for eroding their standard of living. Food prices have risen significantly. Over the past year, the cost of car ownership has escalated, as has the cost of buying or renting a home.
The situation in Europe is at least as bad, or worse. Citizens are worried about possibly “freezing in the dark” this winter if electricity generation cannot be maintained at an adequate level. Natural gas supplies, mostly purchased from Russia by pipeline, are less available and high-priced. Coal is also high-priced. Because of the fall of the Euro relative to the US dollar, the price of oil in euros is as high as it was in 2008 and 2012.
Many other countries, besides those in the Eurozone, are experiencing low currencies relative to the dollar. Some examples include Argentina, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Turkey, Japan, and South Korea.
China has problems with developers of condominium homes for its citizen. Many of these homes cannot be delivered to purchasers as promised. As a protest, buyers are withholding payments on their unfinished homes. To make matters worse, the prices of condominium homes have started to fall, leading to a loss of value of these would-be investments. All of this could lead to serious problems for the Chinese banking industry.
Even with these major problems, central banks in the US, the UK and the Eurozone are raising target interest rates. The US is also implementing Quantitative Tightening, which also tends to raise interest rates. Thus, central banks are intentionally raising the cost of borrowing. It doesn’t take much insight to see that the combination of price inflation and higher borrowing costs is likely to force consumers to cut back on spending, leading to recession.
[2] Politicians will avoid talking about possible future economic problems related to inadequate energy supply.
Politicians want to get re-elected. They want citizens to think that everything is OK. If there are energy supply problems, they need to be framed as being temporary, perhaps related to the war in Ukraine. Alternatively, any issue that arises will be discussed as if it can easily be fixed with new legislation and perhaps a little more debt.
Businesses also want to minimize problems. They want citizens to place orders for their goods and services, without the fear of being laid off. They would like the news media to publish stories saying that any economic dip is likely to be very mild and temporary.
Universities don’t mind problems, but they want the problems to be framed as solvable ones that will offer their students opportunities for jobs that will pay well. A near-term, unsolvable predicament is not helpful at all.
[3] What is wrong is a physics problem. The operation of our economy requires energy of the correct type and the right quantity.
The economy is something that grows through the “dissipation” of energy. Examples of dissipation of energy include the digestion of food to give energy to humans, the burning of fossil fuels, and the use of electricity to power a light bulb. A rise in world energy consumption is highly correlated with growth in the world economy. Falling energy consumption is associated with economic contraction.
In physics terms, the world economy is a dissipative structure, just as all plants, animals and ecosystems are. All dissipative structures have finite lifespans, including the world economy.
This finding is not well known because academic researchers seem to operate in ivory towers. Researchers in economic departments aren’t expected to understand physics and how it applies to the economy. In fairness to academia, the discovery that the economy is a dissipative structure did not occur until 1996. It takes a long time for findings to filter through from one department to another. Even now, I am one of a very small number of people in the world writing about this issue.
Also, economic researchers are not expected to study the history of the many smaller, more-localized civilizations that have collapsed in the past. Typically, the population of these smaller civilizations increased at the same time as the resources used by the population started to degrade. The use of technology, such as dams to redirect water flows, may have helped for a while, but eventually this was not enough. The combination of declining availability of high quality resources and increasing population tended to leave these civilizations with little margin for dealing with the bad times that can be expected to occur by chance. In many cases, such civilizations collapsed after disease epidemics, a military invasion, or a climate fluctuation that led to a series of crop failures.
[4] Many people have been confused by common misunderstandings regarding how an economy really works.
[a] Standard economics models foster the belief that the economy can continue to grow without a corresponding increase in energy supply.
When economic models are designed with labor and capital being the important inputs, energy supply doesn’t seem to be needed, at all.
[b] People seem to understand that legislation capping apartment rents will stop the building of new apartments, but they do not make the same connection with steps taken to hold down fossil fuel prices.
If efforts are made to bring down the prices of fossil fuels (such as raising interest rates and adding oil from the US petroleum reserves to increase total oil supply), we need to expect that extraction will be adversely affected. One article reports that Saudi Arabia does not seem to be using recent record profits to quickly raise reinvestment to the level that seemed to be required a few years ago. This suggests that Saudi Arabia needs prices that are quite a bit higher than $100 per barrel in order to take significant steps toward extracting the country’s remaining resources. This would seem to contradict published reserves that, in theory, take current prices into consideration.
Reuters reports that Venezuela has reneged on its promise to send more oil to Europe, under an oil for debt deal. It wants oil product swaps instead, since it is lacking in its ability to make finished products from its oil itself. It would take a long run of prices much higher than today’s level for Venezuela to be able to sufficiently invest in infrastructure to do such refining. Venezuela reports the highest oil reserves in the world (303.8 thousand million barrels), even higher than Saudi Arabia’s reported 297.5 thousand million barrels, but neither country can be counted on to take major steps to raise supply.
Similarly, there have been reports that US shale drillers are not investing to keep production growing, despite what seem to be sufficiently high prices. There are simply too many issues. The cost of new investment is very high, outside of the already drilled sweet spots. Also, there is no guarantee the price will stay high. There are also supply line issues, such as whether appropriate steel drilling pipes and fracking sand will be available, when needed.
[c] Published information suggests that there is a huge amount of fossil fuels remaining to be extracted, given today’s level of technology. If we assume that technology will get better and better, it is easy to believe that any fossil fuel limit is hundreds of years in the future.
The way the economy works, the extraction limit is really an affordability issue. If the cost of extraction rises too high, relative to what people around the world have for spendable income, production will stop because demand (in terms of what people can afford) will drop too low. People will tend to cut back on discretionary spending, such as vacation travel and meals in restaurants, cutting back on demand for fossil fuels.
[d] How “demand” works is poorly understood. Very often, researchers and the general public assume that demand for energy products will automatically remain high.
A surprisingly large share of demand is tied to the need for food, water, and basic services such as schools, roads, and bus service. Poor people require these basics just as much as rich people do. There are literally billions of poor people in the world. If the wages of poor people fall too low relative to the wages of rich people, the system cannot work. Poor people find that they must spend nearly all their income on food, water and housing. As a result, they have little left to pay taxes to support basic governmental services. Without adequate demand from poor people, the prices of commodities tend to fall too low to encourage reinvestment.
The majority of fossil fuel use is by commercial and industrial users. For example, natural gas is often used in making nitrogen fertilizer. If the price of natural gas is high, the price of fertilizer will rise higher than farmers are willing to pay for the fertilizer. Farmers will cut back on fertilizer use, reducing yields for their crops. The farmers’ own costs will be lower, but there will be less of the desired crops grown, perhaps indirectly raising overall food prices. This is not a connection that economic modelers build into their models.
The lockdowns of 2020 show that governments can indeed ramp up demand (and thus prices) for energy products by sending out checks to citizens. We are now seeing that the approach seems to produce inflation rather than more energy production. Also, countries without energy resources of their own may see their currencies fall with respect to the US dollar.
[e] It is not true that energy types can easily be substituted for one another.
In energy modeling, such as in calculating “Energy Return on Energy Invested,” a popular assumption is that all energy is substitutable for other energy. This isn’t true, unless a person accounts for all of the details of the transition, and the energy needed to make such a transition possible.
For example, intermittent electricity, such as that generated by wind turbines or solar panels, is not substitutable for load-following electricity. Such intermittent electricity is not always available when people need it. Some of this intermittency is very long-term. For example, wind-generated electricity may be low for more than a month at a time. In the case of solar energy, the problem tends to be storing up enough electricity during summer months for use in winter. A naive person might assume that adding a few hours of battery backup would fix intermittency problems, but such a fix turns out to be very inadequate.
If people are not to freeze in the dark in winter, longer-term solutions are needed. One standard approach is to use a fossil fuel system to fill in the gaps when wind and solar are not available. The catch, then, is that the fossil fuel system really needs to be a year-around system, with trained staffing, pipelines and adequate fuel storage. A modeler needs to consider the need to build a whole double system instead of a single system.
Because of intermittency issues, electricity from wind and solar only substitute for fuels (coal, natural gas, uranium) that operate our current system. Publications often talk about the cost of intermittent electricity being at “grid parity” when its temporary cost seems to match the cost of grid electricity, but this is matching “apples and oranges.” The cost comparison needs to be in comparison to the average cost of fuel for plants producing electricity, rather than to electricity prices.
Another popular assumption is that electricity can be substituted for liquid fuels. For example, in theory, every piece of farm equipment could be redesigned and rebuilt to be based on electricity, rather than diesel, which is typically used today. The catch is that there would need to be an enormous number of batteries built and eventually disposed of for this transition to work. There would need also need to be factories to build all this new equipment. We would need an international trade system operating extraordinarily well, to find all the raw materials. Likely, there would still not be enough raw materials to make the system work.
[f] There is a great deal of confusion about expected oil and other energy prices, as an economy reaches energy limits.
This issue is closely related to [4][d], with respect to the confusion about how energy demand works. A common assumption among analysts is that “of course” oil prices will rise, as limits are approached. This assumption is based on the standard supply and demand curve used by economists.
The issue is that the availability of inexpensive energy products very much affects demand as well as supply. Jobs that pay well are only available if inexpensive energy products can leverage human labor. For example, surgeons today perform robotic surgery, requiring, at a minimum, a stable source of electricity for each operation. Furthermore, the equipment used in the surgery is created using fossil fuels. Surgeons also use anesthetic products that require fossil fuels. Without today’s fancy equipment, surgeons would not be able to charge nearly as much they do for their services.
Thus, it is not immediately obvious whether demand or supply would tend to fall faster, if energy supply should hit limits. We know that Revelation 18:11-13 in the Bible provides a list of a number of commodities, including humans sold as slaves, for which prices dropped very low at the time of the collapse of ancient Babylon. This suggests that at least sometimes during prior collapses, the problem was too low demand (and too low prices), rather than too low supply of energy products.
[5] The International Energy Agency and politicians around the world have recommended a transition to the use of wind and solar to try to prevent climate change for quite a few years. This approach seemed to have the approval of both those concerned about too much burning of fossil fuels causing climate change and those concerned about too little fossil fuel energy causing economic collapse.
A rough estimate of what the decline in energy supply might look like under the rapid shift to renewables proposed by politicians is shown in Figure 6.
If a person understands the connection between energy consumption and the economy, such a rapid drop in energy supply looks like something that would likely be associated with economic collapse. The goal of politicians seems to be to keep citizens from understanding how awful the situation really is by reframing the story of the decline in energy supply as something politicians and economists have chosen to do, to try to prevent climate change for the sake of future generations.
The rich and powerful can see this change as a good thing if they themselves can profit from it. When there is not enough energy, the physics of the situation tends to lead to increasing wage and wealth disparities. Wealthy individuals see this outcome as a good thing: They can perhaps personally profit. For example, Bill Gates has amassed about 270,000 acres of farmland in the United States, including newly purchased farmland in North Dakota.
Furthermore, politicians see that they can have more control over populations if they can direct citizens in a way that will use less energy. For example, bank accounts can be linked to some type of social credit score. Politicians will explain that this is for people’s own good–to prevent the spread of disease or to prevent undesirables from using too much of the available resources.
One way of dramatically reducing energy consumption is by mandating shutdowns in an area, purportedly to prevent the spread of Covid-19, as China has been doing recently. Such shutdowns can be explained as being needed to stop the spread of disease. These shutdowns can also help hide other problems, such as not having enough fuels to prevent rolling blackouts of electricity.
[6] We are living in a truly unusual time, with a major energy problem being hidden from view.
Politicians cannot tell the world how bad the energy situation really is. The problem with near-term energy limits has been known since at least 1956 (M. King Hubbert) and 1957 (Hyman Rickover). The problem was confirmed in the modeling performed for the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others.
Most high-level politicians are aware of the energy supply issue, but they cannot possibly talk about it. Instead, they choose to talk about what would happen if the economy were allowed to speed ahead without limits, and how bad the consequences of that might be.
Militaries around the world are no doubt well aware of the fact that there will not be enough energy supplies to go around. This means that the world will be in a contest for who gets how much. In a war-like setting, we should not be surprised if communications are carefully controlled. The views we can expect to hear loudly and repeatedly are the ones governments and influential individuals want ordinary citizens to hear.
I say burn it you say — down… https://t.me/c/1588731774/13904
One piece of what is said:
I am doubtful Bill Gates could get away with this. I certainly hope not.
if it was an eddylink, it will almost certainly be clickbait–which is why i never open them
surveillance and predictive policing linked to Bill Gates and his nanoparticles can be predicted as utter fabricated nonsense—it’s been swirling around since the current vaccine thing went mainstream–social media again.
Obviously the vaccine program has had problems, I’ve said that all along
But when the Gates thing gets stirred up again, it explains why I have nothing to do with any aspect of what is being exchanged about it.
If its a plot, Gates must be involved—Or Soros, or Musk, or Biden, or Bezos
Or someone famous anyway.
Hey norm … can you review some books that you’ve never read next?
Or maybe you could become a travel writer — and write about places that you’ve never been to?
On one hand there is UEP — under no circumstances will we get even the slightest hint that this is the policy…. they won’t even bother to shut down Fast Eddy when he promulgates this because that might alert the mob….
On the other hand we have Bill Gates public acknowledging what is an utterly ridiculous scheme — as if it’s real.
Just as we have the WEF crowd including Claws Snob laying out their entire sinister game plan on CNN – and Noel Harry tells us we are all useless eaters and not necessary.
These people operate off of the loose lips sink ships doctrine…. they do not flap on about their top secret plans. Therefore if it’s in the news… it’s fake.
Okay… norm Tommy’s got 40 posts now … so we’ll be transitioning shortly…
Stand By.
BASICALLY THE VACCINES NOT ONLY ARE KILLING PEOPLE, BUT THEY ARE NOT SAVING A SINGLE LIFE, AS I MAINTAINED ALL ALONG – ROBIN
Increasing SARS-CoV2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated elderly populations during the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant surge in UK
“The vaccine effectiveness (VE) for the third dose was in negative since December 20, 2021, with a significantly increased proportion of SARS-CoV2 cases hospitalizations and deaths among the vaccinated; and a decreased proportion of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths among the unvaccinated. The pre-existing conditions were present in 95.6% of all COVID-19 deaths..
CONCLUSIONS There is no discernable vaccine effectiveness among ≥18 years of age, vaccinated third dose population since the beginning of the Omicron variant surge..”
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.06.28.22276926v1.full
Thank you FE
I thought that this chart was interesting.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2022/06/28/2022.06.28.22276926/F14.large.jpg
There seemed to be a definite turning point about the beginning of 2022, when Omicron replaced Delta. After the turning point, the vaccinated tended to do much worse and the unvaccinated much better.
It struck me as strange that the people who did this study of UK data were private practice physicians in the US state of California. There was also one person from “School of Engineering and Computer Science, University of the Pacific, Stockton CA, USA.”
These doctors aren’t from the group of medical university faculty who usually write articles. I am wondering if they will have trouble getting their report published.
And humans think they are so awesome
https://youtu.be/EVYmlNSIh2c
No computer to guide them!
Somebody has been swatting Marjorie Taylor Greene.
I thought they only did that to flies!
Norman, did you have anything to do with this?
https://twitter.com/RepMTG
Marjorie Taylor Greene represents the far northwestern corner of the state I live in, Georgia. The population mix is disproportionately White and Republican.
I’m curious–is Taylor Greene really as dim as she comes across
or is there something we’re all missing?
it was me who sold her the peach tree dish
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very funny https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F74iqEJnb14
Canada may have a lot of “unknown cause of deaths,” but its percentage of excess deaths seems to be a lot lower than for the US.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-projected-baseline-by-age?country=USA~CAN
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Dr. Lee Merritt interviews Dr. Poornima Wagh, who argues about the contents of the COVID-19 vaccine vials: “It’s a _chemical_ weapon — it’s not even a bio-weapon.”
This is two hours long and very chatty—well worth a listen.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/0wVQQXV1LkVd/
This is truly illuminating. If Dr. Wagh is correct, there is no mRNA, no viral vectors. We can sequence genetic material but we can’t manipulate it to the degree advertised. The jab juice is a chemical weapon that causes illness and death by poisoning. A big part of the poison is graphene oxide. And different vials have different amounts of stuff, so if you didn’t get sick, it means you didn’t get a big enough dose of the poison, according to Dr. Wagh. But don’t worry, every booster will increase your chances of winning a prize in the clottery!
Odd don’t you think. After 1.5-2 years of vaxxes we still don’t know what was / is in them. Despite some progressive researchers getting their hands on some vials.
Yes, it is astounding—especially given the copious amount of information on ingredients that can found on the packaging of some instant curries, bags of potato chips or bars of chocolates.
And it’s amazing that despite the lack of complete info being available, that so many people would consent to being injected.
Another thing, which is not surprising in the least, is that different “independent” researchers state different and sometimes conflicting results. This may reflect differences in the constituents of different vials, or differences in the competency or honesty of the analyzing researchers, some of whom may be disinfo agents.
The only thing I can say for sure, is, to paraphrase Young Greta, “They can stick their dodgy needles up their….”
i do so enjoy eddys fantasy interactions with (female) medical staff
it used to be ranting at girls on reception down at the clinic—till he got banned from there
now it’s the lady in the chemists.
Who next eddy? A lady vet?
All BS of course–but entertaining none the less.
Roundup? Nobody would ever think to look for that!!!
Interesting, thanks!
What a fascinating video. I will have to watch it again. All makes sense.
Last winter I was taking 4000 IU of vit D3 /day, and was wondering too much / too little. The guest speaker Dr. Poornima Wagh had a serious issue with her womb/uterus and pretty much cleared it up by taking 15,000 IU of vit D3/day for 8-9 months, resulting in her GP making the usual comment – there must be a mistake (i.e. vit D3 cannot do this).
To repeat what Tim stated, Dr. Wagh thinks that the Vaxxes contain zero bio products, and they have tested over 2,000 samples in various countries, the main element doing the damage seems to be reduced graphene oxide. They also contain some sort of gel, lipid nano particles and heavy metals, of varying quantities.
“The guest speaker Dr. Poornima Wagh had a serious issue with her womb/uterus and pretty much cleared it up by taking 15,000 IU of vit D3/day for 8-9 months”
In fact, it was initially 25,000 IU then 50,000 IU, for 9 months.
I clicked a few times randomly on the timeline of the video just for fun, and I was not disappointed.
Dr. Wagh: “The Chinese, I’m sorry if I’m gonna sound offensive, they can’t make a can opener; you think they can weaponize a virus?!” (30:12)
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Hahahahahahahaha!!!! x 5billiontrillionmillionthousand and 8.
This past week’s toll in Italy also includes one Stefano Pasin, a ferocious online advocate of DEATH for the “unvaccinated.” Pasin “died suddenly and unexpectedly” of a heart attack, at 44.
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/in-memory-of-those-who-died-suddenly-1ed
That is just awesome news. We need moar of that 🤓
Stefano finally got his final solution. And Italy is now a quieter place in which to be uninjected.
Get Boosted get busted!
Another one bites the dust
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
Hey, I’m gonna get you too
Another one bites the dust
How do you think I’m going to get along
Without you, when you’re gone
You took me for everything that I had
And kicked me out on my own
Are you happy, are you satisfied?
How long can you stand the heat?
Out of the doorway the injections rip
To the sound of the beat-up…
Next……
It’s raining death! Hallelujah!
It’s raining death! Amen!
I’m gonna go out to run and let myself get
Absolutely soaking wet!
It’s raining death! Hallelujah!
It’s raining death! Every specimen!
Tall, blonde, dark and lean
Rough and tough and strong and mean
Virologist Cason King has just died unexpectedly and suddenly after being off Twitter for a month. He was 32.
On his Twitter page is a rather funny meme about how dumb Trump supporters are. They have strong opinions about things they know nothing about, you see!
https://twitter.com/casonthemason?lang=en
But Jason was smart, almost genius level if his obit is to be believed. Sadly, he leaves behind a black Labrador who will no doubt miss him. The cremation is scheduled for August 27.
https://lfpress.remembering.ca/obituary/cason-king-1086002782
Real Genius.
True believer in the ‘Cult of Science’
Boosted?, Gone.
Here Lies the Truth.
Cremation? Any precautions for toxic waste?
Good.
We are thinking of norm as we read this
The U.K. approved Moderna’s new bivalent COVID-19 booster containing mRNA that codes for the original Wuhan strain spike protein and the Omicron BA.1 subvariant — both no longer circulate
This is INSANITY!
https://palexander.substack.com/p/moderna-bancel-madness-you-want-to
It’s not insanity right norm? It’s safe and effective!!
Let’s go norm let’s go!!!
Excerpt:
Why in God’s name?
Of course because UEP and extermination. If only these writers were aware and would accept the obvious … they’d not get so exasperated
Do they think the people doing this are stooopid or something???? Or maybe they just… made a mistake…
Hahahahaha… there is no stooopidity — no … mistake… they are — exterminating us. They want mutations.
Further on that … an anti vaxxer informed me it’s about money….
I see — if it’s about $$$ why inject something that is so dangerous into your customers?
That’s because they were truly afraid of the virus and they did make best efforts to make a real vaccine and it turns out it’s not safe but now they have no choice but to keep injecting it.
But they knew from early on this virus was no more deadly than the flu — I spoke to an epidemiologist who is involved with Great Barrington and he as a university researcher had exactly the same data as the WHO and CDC… and it was showing slightly more dangerous for the elderly less dangerous for the young – than a bad flu.
No response.
If it’s about $$$ why inject babies?
Because they want to eliminate the control group.
But there is huge resistance to injecting toddlers and babies — so they will never eliminate the control group.
No response.
And why inject your military and your health care workers? Why would you want to sicken these very essential people?
No response.
The thing is….
People are grasping at absolutely anything — regardless of how ridiculous and illogical it is …
The above person is aware of the UEP thesis and rejects it … instead opting for the it’s about money thesis….
Hope is a fragile thing… it must be kept in bubble wrap inside the mind…
UEP is like a hammer seeking to destroy hope… UEP is despair …. UEP… is despair…
Yet it is the only theory that has not logical weaknesses… UEP connects all the dots…. it takes into account the energy situation … and the outrageousness of the CovCON policies.
UEP is perfection. And there is but one person on this entire Earth….who has been able to deduce … The Big Picture.
The Messiah… our messiah … the one… the only … Faaaasssttttt… Eeeeeeee…Ddddeeeee.
That is all (for now)
The Worst Healthcare Mistake I’ve Ever Made
https://rumble.com/v1gxrwv-the-worst-healthcare-mistake-ive-ever-made.html
Just in case norm missed this….
Lets draw some analogies with the Yuga cycles, where the average lifespan decreases to abysmal as the Kali Yuga draws to a closure.
Let’s see what “we’ve” got so far circling in the wheel of folly;
1. “Pathogen” in circulation
2. Vials filled with “nobody knows” in circulation
3. Armaments in “circulation”
4. Circulating power “outages”
5. Egotistical fantasies circulating out of control
6. IC circulating in the tubes from debt, depletion and debauchery
7. Insert your own circulating observation
Yup.
Makes perfect sense.
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How does this play out? I see oil companies cutting back in research and then oil running thin prices going up governments giving money for oil.. oil going up more than snap!!!! It all breaks
major oil reserve discoveries are now very unlikely, so why should the industry invest in exploration?
total oil peaked at what? 102 mbpd and after dropping to 97 or 98, it’s now back to 100 mbpd.
so down 2% in the past few years.
know what that is called? “NOT BAD!”
“How does this play out?”
well, how HAS it been playing out?
production dropping slightly, but Affordability becoming a much bigger problem, especially in the smaller weaker countries otherwise known as the Periphery.
the Periphery is being squeeeeezed out of oil supply, so even though the pie is shrinking, the Core gets a bigger slice.
“How does this play out?”
so even though discontinuity is always possible right around the corner, Black Swan etc, continuity is always more probable.
the Core has plentiful reserves through at least 2030, sure 1% even 2% lower per year.
affordability will continue to make some places “snap” and “break”.
here’s looking at you, Europe!
I concur but would reckon that a bioweapon with mid to high double digit mortality rate is spread far and wide in advance of seneca. BAU gets worse and worse for the average joe next few years, global Venezuelan path, then one day msm spits, “omg we don’t know how covid and ebola married eachother”. 8-9 out of 10 dead, bodies in the streets in cities, unlucky survivors starved out or worse, bitter clingers in the sticks fully prepped get drone bombed. Utopia emerges from the ashes luckily. Just a guess.
Could be BAU forever, i heard abiotic oil just got a solar lunar recharge from delta 16 cycle – 15epmi. 1093-c and every day for the next 16,000 years infinity barrels of oil are replenished, already refined, i heard they are stacked 2 miles deep in the marianas trench already on a worm hole that’s pushing out 110mmbbl per day and growing.
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Macron – the age of abundance is over – and was great for those who enjoyed it… but now we have to sacrifice https://t.me/goddek/2072
I interpret that as a sort of Churchillian call to sacrifice in a time of war.
since WEFian Macron was sent out before the cameras to make this statement, the Elites look like they want to start to get this message out.
it’s smoke and mirrors for sure, but what’s behind it?
is the USA/NATZO gearing up to enter The War?
are the Elites trying to psyop the common folk by saying that the hard winter ahead is “Putin’s fault”?
I think it’s the Eurotard EU “leaders” who are realizing that they blew up their reliable Russian energy supply chain, and they are covering for their stooooopendous stooooopidity.
que sera sera “hungry and freezing in the dark”.
You’re enjoying this aren’t you David.
Just a little bit.
BAU tonight baby. At least where you are and I am.
Keep the comments coming I always enjoy them.
Michael Le Merchant , do you have any chart that is hopium or feel good like something at all time low or how solar/wind/space/anything from unicorn fart that can save us?
I think with just weeks to winter, there is none.
/sarc
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/primary-sub-energy-source
down in 2020, then back up again.
facts are facts, and up is up.
Michael is the New and Improved Harry.
Magnificent posts ….truly magnificent …
Right up there with the Extra Strength Killer Booster for Doom Effect.
Absolutely zero room for anyone who was thinking of being optimistic haha
EXCESS DEATHS, FINLAND
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa8sfheXoAAiJmS?format=jpg&name=small
This is a chart from Our World in Data. The deaths are definitely higher.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-raw-death-count-single-series?country=~FIN
I tried to look at the chart by age group, also. The deaths bounced around so much for the lowest age group that it was hard to see what was going on. The above chart is better.
Wow – I seem to have missed where Russia declared war on the Finns and dropped 50,000 tonnes of bombs on Helsinki…
NY harbor diesel crack spread is back ATH
Demand is strong and supply is tight
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa9mu-vWQAAJj45?format=jpg&name=large
Worrisome!
Maybe it’s just me but when I look at data like that … I don’t get anxious at all…
I get excited. Not excited like VIP room excited… that’s titillation …
More like big fat line of Bolivian Blow excited….
M Fast prefers I get high on doom vs Bolivian … leaves her more budget to buy more clothes.
WOW!
NY GOV. HOCHUL: “[Social media] questions are now part of our background checks. Just like in the old days, you talk to someone’s neighbor…and find out whether this person has been spouting philosophies that indicate that they have been radicalized.”
https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1562499749910945792
Notice the person communicating the message in sign language…
How about they find a tranny freak to do that!
Now that would be seriously unhinging for society huh.
The problem is … finding a tranny freak who knows sign language…
Generally tranny freaks are involved in cabaret stuff (which is really just a front for prostitution – the johns apparently pay more if they are getting action with someone who is famous)…. some of them will be involved in alt-p.orn…. a great many of them are pedos… and all of them … in the words of my good mate ‘have severe mental illness’
True that.
So let’s take this politically incorrect train to the depot — do ya think a mentally ill tranny p.orn star/pedo/hoo.ker… is gonna be interested in learning sign language?
I don’t think so.
Maybe they could dress someone up and make a fake Tranny?
Just throwing ideas out there… if anyone has other thoughts on how to unhinge the MOREONS even more — let’s share.
Hey norm… do you think it’s time yet for Tommy Robinson News?
I see the feed has 39 unread posts… we’ll get to that soon… norm wants to be updated on the activities of his favourite anti grooming mate
Germany has gone all over the world looking for natural gas to import, if they choose not to get it from Russia. They are also asking other Europeans to reduce their natural gas usage. Needless to say, Germany has had virtually no success in finding gas elsewhere.
The speaker says the only way to solve the problem is to agree to take natural gas through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline (running adjacent to Nord Stream 1), which has already been built, but which Germany refused to let Russia use for natural gas exports. Of course, this would require giving up some of the sanctions against Russia.
I expect that at least some of the gas Russia would have sent to Europe is being exported elsewhere, so it would be difficult to apologize and get Russia to send the full amount of natural gas exported in the past. But it would be an idea to try. It is unlikely to happen, however, because Germany would “lose face,” shifting its approach in this way.
Germany currently buys gas for overrated prices on the spot markets. It is used to run power plants to deliver electricity to France, that has a problem to cool the nuclear power plants during the summer.
Germany needs gas because they have shut down the coal-fired power plants. Germany has enough brown coal for the next 100 years in Lusatia, where it can be mined in open-cast mining. They were shut down to meet climate goals.
The gas is needed to compensate the volatility of the solar and wind installations.
In Austria the OMV is invested into the European gas hubs in Burgenland. During the Austro-Hungarian Empire coal was aquired from nowadays Poland. There might be some gas ressources available by fracking in Lower Austria. Austria has a lot of hydropower. The high prices are not justified by high production costs. The law somehow obligates Verbund to sell according to the prices on the spot markets, which means they are generating huge profits. Politicians are discussing to skim off these profits by a special tax.
Russian allied forces are now within artillery striking distance of the city of Bakhmut, and they are in the process of encircling it. UKR forces are dug into the city, and citizens have already evacuated into Russian controlled areas. It will soon fall like Mariupol and Severodonetsk before it.
Bakhmut is the key in the remaining UKR defences in the Donbass, which become entirely untenable without it. Donbass will soon be cleared, and Russian forces themselves are then expected to activate in the south and the east, possibly up to the Dnieper. The pivotal point is approaching.
The attrition in the Donbass has led to major UKR forces losses, and UKR will have no defensible point this side of the Dnieper. This is as far as it goes for them. Meanwhile, major geopolitical shifts are already well underway; and western Europe is headed into a major energy crisis.
Gail, that is a clear threat. His use of gender to abuse is also clearly illegal in UK. I am asking you to get him under control.
Besides being very knowledgable about recent history and current events, Alexander is an excellent speaker, isn’t he? I like the way he measures his rhetoric, pauses often, and remains calm and understated most of the time. I wish I was a bit more like him and a bit less hysterical when I get excited.
So says the MSM
VAERS removes 150,000 vaccine deaths https://t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk/2053
DR. MARK CYMERINT:
I COULD SEE A 20% REDUCTION IN THE GOBAL POPULATION
We’ve heard people like Bill Gates talk about global depopulation. It looks an awful lot like that’s the goal here
With what they’re saying about depopulation of the world and these untested, unproven, unscientific vaccines just being shoved upon mass populations; I could see a 20% reduction in the global population…and not bat an eyelid, based on what I’m seeing the numbers are on deaths and adverse events
https://t.me/childcovidvaccineinjuriesuk/2052
20 leads to 100
https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-grid-is-well-within-reach-and-with-little-storage/
Haven’t had time to read it but I’m sure there’s a snag.
I’m very skeptical. My modeling work involving all-solar region-scale regimes calls for HUGE amounts of storage assuming BAU demand. Adding wind would change things quite a bit but my informed intuition tells me that “with little storage” and BAU demand just aren’t two things you can have at once at near-100% renewable generation.
It is easy to assume away variability, I suppose. I haven’t read it, however.
Looks like the modelling that came out of ICL by Ferguson to give us the Scamdemic, or the modelling that gave us climax changing (cos its never changed before).
These renewables and transmission lines all come from fairy dust, not diesel, so anything is possible in the New Green Steal.
The study is basically crap, as it doesn’t take into account of droughts where the hydro is very limited and nowhere near as windy. It uses data from the last week where storms have been providing plenty of wind and all the reservoirs are full of water so plenty of hydro at the flick of a switch.
If they tried to use the data from winter in 2019 the result would have been a disaster. Choosing your statistics carefully can obtain any result people want.
One of the great plans for Australia is turning a part of the snowy mountains hydro scheme into a giant ‘battery’, easy to do with lots of water, but should a drought like 2000 -2019 happen again, or should I say when it happens again, there will be no water to use for the ‘battery’.
One of the reasons I’m for pumped seawater hydro is that there is never a shortage of water, but people in power never want to acknowledge the slight inconvenience of droughts on their plans. It’s all short termism, perhaps because they know there is no long term…
Hmmm salt water reservoir in LA seems best so it’s a no go.
I’m wondering how that snow melt works in grand solar minimum(call me a nut but I like zharkovas model;
….rampin up solar in a GSM; I no I no sprecruration. &ima good teetotaler… Hal just one shot, I won’t pull u plug
I’d rather read a Danielle Steel novel ….
https://cdn2.penguin.com.au/covers/original/9780552159128.jpg
Gail, have you seen this? The ‘sanctions’ on Russia are not really working out, and the energy crisis is worsening in UK and in western Europe. Inflation is now expected to pass 18% in UK!
> UK inflation projected to hit 18.6% as gas prices surge
Bank raises forecast as European gas price sets new record
Surging wholesale gas prices are putting the UK on a path to exceed 18 per cent inflation next year, the highest rate among larger western economies, according to a report from Citigroup.
The bank’s projection heaps more pressure on candidates for the Conservative leadership to address a worsening cost of living crisis and came as UK gas prices for next-day delivery surged as much as 33 per cent.
Rapidly increasing prices for natural gas have left economic projections out of date. At the start of the month, the Bank of England forecast that higher gas prices would push inflation above 13 per cent towards the end of this year.
Bank of America said last week that it expected UK consumer price inflation to peak at 14 per cent in January, while Goldman Sachs and EY projected it to hit 15 per cent.
But with Europe’s gas crisis escalating in August, Citi predicted on Monday that inflation would reach 18.6 per cent in January.
Continental European gas prices are more than 14 times their average of the past decade. The benchmark European gas price rallied almost 10 per cent on Monday to €278 per megawatt hour ($81 per million British thermal units), the highest closing price on record and taking the rise over August to 45 per cent.
Examining the wholesale figures, Citi predicted that the UK’s retail energy price cap — which limits how much households pay for heating and electricity — would be raised to £4,567 in January and then £5,816 in April, compared with the current level of £1,971 a year. It added that the shifts would lead to inflation “entering the stratosphere”.
https://www.ft.com/content/778e65e1-6ec5-4fd7-98d5-9d701eb29567
Gail, check this out. It is feared that the UK economy could be headed for collapse sooner rather than later.
It is particularly ironic as it was made clear when ‘sanctions’ were imposed on Russia that the intention was to collapse the Russian economy and state, and a few months later, Russia is coping fine while the headline is that UK is headed for an ‘economic meltdown’ with major banks on the line.
It was probably not a bright idea to alienate a major source of energy like Russia?
> The financial system will be sorely tested by our economic meltdown
Small businesses, private equity firms, borrowers and major banks are all on the line
We are already at 10pc. We may soon be at 12pc. And before long we may well hit 15pc or perhaps even a genuinely scary 20pc. We have already seen signs this week that inflation has started to soar out of control, that the Bank of England has lost control of prices, and that the Government is floundering around with little idea how to respond.
Right now, most of the discussion around that is about how ordinary people will cope with the cost of living, and of course that is a huge issue. But there is something else to worry about. Sustained high inflation could trigger a financial crisis as well.
When prices start to gallop ahead at the rate they are right now that will inevitably impact the financial system. Like how? Lots of small business will close, jeopardising the loans banks have made to them; the private equity industry’s mountains of debt will be unaffordable; a slice of the one in five mortgages still on variable rates will default; and bank balance sheets, which have not been tested for such extreme price rises, will be stretched to breaking point.
In the hyper-inflation of the 1970s we had the secondary banking crisis, and in the milder inflationary surge of the early 1990s we saw a wave of financial collapses. We shouldn’t kid ourselves that this time will be any different – and it may well be a whole lot worse.
It may have only been a modest increase, but the 10.1pc inflation rate recorded this week was still psychologically important. We are now into double digit annual price rises. It will be higher still over the next few months. True, with the oil price falling, and wheat prices coming down as shipments from Ukraine start to flow again, inflation may well ease some time in the new year.
It will help a lot when the big jump in oil prices earlier this year drops out of the annualised indices. Even so, we can expect a lot more pain ahead, and with real interest rates still at record lows (UK rates should really be at 12pc by now just to be neutral) we could well be facing an inflationary spiral.
Anyone on a low income will be genuinely struggling, while everyone on average earnings will have to trim their budgets a lot to make ends meet. But it is the impact on financial stability we should really be worrying about. Here’s why.
First, lots of small businesses are going to be in trouble this winter. Everyone is talking about bailing out households, but hardly anyone has mentioned help for the independent shops and restaurants that won’t be able to pay huge electricity and heating bills very soon (and let’s not even think about all the sunbed salons you see on every High Street – those things use up a lot of power).
Many of them didn’t make much money in the first place. They will soon start closing in droves, and the banks will take a huge hit on any money they have lent them.
Next, the private equity industry has built up mountains of debt and dumped it on the companies they now control. Those overstretched businesses are vulnerable not just to rising interest rates – although those are going to hurt – but also to the soaring costs of power and supplies.
They have already been squeezed for every spare penny when times were good. In a downturn, all of them are going to struggle, and a few will default.
Thirdly, while around 80pc of mortgages are on fixed rates – phew! – that still leaves 20pc of borrowers with variable rates. They will have already seen their monthly repayments double over the last few months, and they may well double again before Christmas. Here’s a guess as well.
The people who didn’t fix their mortgage rates probably were not very good at managing their finances. Some of them will be able to cope with that, as well as huge heating bills, but plenty won’t. Mortgage repossessions are already up 39pc in the latest quarter (admittedly from low levels) and will climb a lot higher.
Finally, even the major banks might be in trouble. They have all been stress tested by their regulators. Here’s the catch, however. Those tests didn’t include double-digit inflation for the simple reason that no one thought that was possible. If there is a cascade of losses on small business loans, followed by commercial landlords who don’t have any tenants any more, followed by repossessions of people who can’t pay a variable rate mortgage, and then a ton of private equity debt turns sour as well, then there will be some huge write-downs to take. And that will not be pretty.
In reality, we have been here before. The inflation of the 1970s led to the secondary banking crisis and a wave of bailouts, with the likes of Slater Walker, a high-flying conglomerate turned bank, collapsing. It may be largely forgotten now, but the milder inflationary upsurge of the 1990s was almost as bad.
“The early 1990s witnessed the failure of a large number of small banks in the United Kingdom,” argued a 2016 paper from the Bank reviewing the lessons of the era. “Although these banks were not by themselves systemically important, the episode was serious enough for the Bank of England to provide emergency liquidity assistance to a few of them in order to prevent contagion to larger more systemically important banks.”
It would be crazy to think that can’t happen again. Nor can we have much confidence that an increasingly hapless Governor Andrew Bailey will be on top of the issue. The Bank didn’t see inflation coming down the track, and probably won’t have seen this either. Of course, inflation may be transitory, and come back down over the next year.
But if it runs out of control, the financial markets will be in big trouble – and possibly sooner than anyone imagines.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/08/19/financial-system-will-sorely-tested-economic-meltdown/
Yes, the UK economy is in big trouble. I would agree. I don’t know any way to fix the problem either. I am sure people would like to find someplace better (Norway, for example), but that cannot work for very many people. Expensive. Not much extra housing.
Gail, care to comment? Does this mean an annual £240B interest bill? https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/june2022
I’m really looking forward to Q4… I have a feeling that something Big is gonna happen!
I am afraid you may be correct.
There are no real sanctions… that’s all MSM BS
The Office for National Statistics has released some UK demographic stats for 2021. Most kids were born out of marriage for the first time on record, and 1/3 of kids were born to parents who were born abroad.
The full ethnic breakdown of new borns will be published later, and it will be interesting to see how high over 40% the figure now is for ethnic kids. They will likely be a majority by the end of this decade.
The white British birth rate has collapsed since 2010, especially for the working classes. No doubt financial concerns are partly responsible for that, and the British state relies heavily on migration for labour expansion. Over a million entered the UK last year.
The world is a flux and all things in it.
> More babies were born outside of marriage in England and Wales last year than to wedded couples for the first time on record, official figures show.
The latest Office for National Statistics data shows around 625,000 live births were logged in the two nations in 2021. But 321,000 of these were outside of marriage or a civil partnership, while 304,000 were within one.
It means just 48.7 per cent of newborns were to a legal couple, falling below the 50 per cent threshold for the first time since records began in 1845. The rate has been trending downwards for the last century.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-11095693/More-babies-born-wedlock-2021-time-record.html
> Albania has moved into the top 10 most common countries of birth for both mothers and fathers born outside the UK, new figures have shown. According to fresh data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), Romania is now the most common country of birth for mothers born outside the UK. For fathers born outside the UK, Pakistan remains the most common country of birth.
Overall, the ONS data shows that last year more than one-third (34.2 per cent) of all children born in England and Wales had either one or both parents born outside the UK.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11095223/Albania-moves-10-common-countries-birth-mothers-fathers-born-outside-UK.html
UK 2 year bond:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa8vxzUXgAAcsDT?format=jpg&name=large
“Central government debt interest payable was £19.4 billion in June 2022, which is the highest since monthly records began in April 1997”
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/bulletins/publicsectorfinances/june2022
Someone enlighten me. Does this mean interest payment alone will consume £240B per year now?
This is not oil, a meme stock or even a scam. It’s the median monthly mortgage payment in America
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa7kbOQWAAAUr4e?format=jpg&name=900×900
This does not look sustainable!
That’s nothing. Zerohedge posted an article about a 27 yr old living in in NYC. Her 1 bedroom apt rent was $3000 per month. Her new lease? That rent doubled to a little over $6000. Let that sink in. The irony of it is she decided to pay because there were other renters who were willing to pay more.
Dennis’ progress can only be made after we are under an accelerationist rule, with virtually no human rights for anyone, unlimited human experiment and the companies basically being allowed to shoot anyone on the way.
@Gail
Using prison to go thru cold winter was a tactic which existed in the story “The Cop and the Anthem” by O.Henry, a writer who is primarily remembered now for the story “Gift of the Magi’. It is from 1904
https://odysee.com/@Corona-Investigative-Committee:5/Session-118-Dr.-Patrick-Moore-Odysee-final:a
Protests break out in Lahore, Pakistan.
People took to the streets after receiving huge utility bills despite 12-16 hour daily black outs:
https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1562214907248091136
haha great – I was needing an early evening pick me up…
I do enjoy a good tire fire… in fact the previous owner of this house used some tires to make a large sand box play area for his vermin child… I pulled them out of the ground a few years ago and Stacked Them Out Back (STOB)…. why would I need a sand box huh???
Anyway… there’s maybe 20 of them STOB…. ready for the pyre (when the time comes)….
Tires burn so much more impressively than coal… hey you know what — I remember reading that some guy set up a company that was buying up old tires and was meant to be disposing of them — he was taking the fees for disposing them properly but instead just piled them up in a mountain in a paddock and f789ed off.
I wonder about cutting up old tires and feeding them into the Rayburn .. and getting paid to do that???
They are working on the Fast Eddy Lite Challenge – see – they don’t like it!
Household Electricity Prices YoY change:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa6-S2dX0AAw4D5?format=jpg&name=large
This change cannot work for long!
Great thread about the China heatwave and impact on internal power system:
https://twitter.com/ShanghaiMacro/status/1562382865202962432
Gail wrote, “Another popular assumption is that electricity can be substituted for liquid fuels. For example, in theory, every piece of farm equipment could be redesigned and rebuilt to be based on electricity, rather than diesel, which is typically used today.”
What is the point of electric vehicles, period? It’s not like electricity is a fuel in its own right that a person can just go buy a few cans or liters of. It has to be generated, most usually from fossil fuels. Converted, that is, into other stuff. Isn’t that inefficient in the first place? Then Gail mentions that the batteries can just up in flames or whatever. So where’s the value in electric?
In an EV automobile, energy is stored chemically…just like in a gasoline or diesel car. It’s just that how that energy gets in, what form it takes, and how it’s used are different, and in an EV the mechanism for storage is a lot more complicated (versus that high-tech contraption known as a “tank”). From a large-scale energy systems perspective, the EV decouples its operation from depending solely on petroleum for primary energy; you can generate electricity from a range of renewable and non-renewable sources. That is their greatest value in a post-fossil transition right there.
“Post fossil fuel transition”… notice that? Like it’s a real thing? This phrase doesn’t represent a real thing, it’s a metaphor, a piece of poetry.
History shows that we already had a *pre*-fossil transition, the start of which I’d put at about 1860 and the end at about 1950. The post-fossil transition is as real as we make it be, just as the pre-fossil transition was driven by the prevailing social forces of that time.
Yes sir. An ox cart is pretty damn real alright lol.
a battery, by weight remains unchanged, full or empty
can’t recall the exact equation, but
a couple of gallons of petrol, carries roughly the same energy equivalent of a ‘full tank’ of electricity–or something like that.
that sums up the difference between EV and petrol
Hi, Norman – you are right about batteries weighing the same full or empty; this is definitely a problem with electrification of long-distance transportation where you have to carry your energy with you (planes, ships). By comparison, the specific energy and energy density of refined petroleum fuels are crazy high. For a paper I wrote for grad school in 2013, I found that the batteries required to take the place of an equal amount of energy of jet fuel would take twelve times the volume and 48 times the weight. Commercial airliners of the sort we’ve been used to for over 50 years and military jets are going to *have* to be combustion-based for the foreseeable future.
thanks Jeff—i knew someone out there would have the relevant info on all that stuff
You can just imagine a handful of lucky EV owners driving around on the crumbling roads for a few years before they completely fall apart.
Getting rocks thrown at them and occasionally driving into each other becasue the traffic lights don’t work.
There is hope in the minds of some that energy from wind and solar is almost free, and that it can be used to power everything including farm equipment and air planes. It somehow can also be used to heat homes in winter. People have not thought this through.
Where’s the value of fiat currencies in de-growth? Same question.
Oh, and same answer; extend & pretend.
The commodity index is almost back at the highs
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fa7mC3FUYAAGyoW?format=jpg&name=large
absolutely beautiful.
https://media1.tenor.com/images/dd7ad49354b2a89638ba15925905610a/tenor.gif
https://media1.tenor.com/images/dfdf298f3025e334f87e461328016426/tenor.gif
https://energycommerce.house.gov/newsroom/press-releases/pallone-demands-answers-from-oil-companies-on-record-breaking-profits-amid
I hear what you are saying Gail but what about this story about record profits for oil companies. Is it true? Oil did not even get that high for long enough
The high profits for oil companies are occurring because of the lack of spending for reinvestment. The companies need to be investing a whole lot back, but they cannot find any places with investment potential at the oil prices they expect in the future.
There may be other issues as well, such as tax issue.