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Why is the economy headed for a financial crash? It appears to me that the world economy hit Limits to Growth about 2018 because of a combination of diminishing returns in resource extraction together with rising population. The Covid-19 pandemic and the accompanying financial manipulations hid these problems for a few years, but now, as the world economy tries to reopen, the problems are back with a vengeance.
In the period between 1981 and 2022, the economy was lubricated by a combination of ever-rising debt, falling interest rates, and the growing use of Quantitative Easing. These financial manipulations helped to hide the rising cost of fossil fuel extraction after 1970. Even more money supply was added in 2020. Now central bankers are trying to squeeze the excesses out of the system using a combination of higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening.
After central bankers brought about recessions in the past, the world economy was able to recover by adding more energy supply. However, this time we are dealing with a situation of true depletion; there is no good way to recover by adding more energy supplies to the system. Instead, the only way the world economy can recover, at least partially, is by squeezing some non-essential energy uses out of the system. Hopefully, this can be done in such a way that a substantial part of the world economy can continue to operate in a manner close to that in the past.
One approach to making the economy more efficient in its energy use is by greater regionalization. If countries can start trading almost entirely with nearby neighbors, this will reduce the world’s energy consumption. In parts of the world with plentiful resources and manufacturing capability, the economy can perhaps continue without major changes. Another way of squeezing out excesses might be through the elimination (at least in part) of the trade advantage the US obtains by using the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. In this post, I will also mention a few other ways that non-essential energy consumption might be reduced.
I believe that a financial crash is likely sometime during 2023. After the crash, the system will start squeezing down on the less necessary parts of the economy. While these changes will start in 2023, they will likely take place over a period of years. In this post, I will try to explain what I see happening.
[1] The world economy, in its currently highly leveraged state, cannot withstand both higher interest rates and Quantitative Tightening.
With higher interest rates, the value of bonds falls. With bonds “worth less,” the financial statements of pension plans, insurance companies, banks and others holding those bonds all look worse. More contributions are suddenly needed to fund pension funds. Governments may find themselves needing to bail out many of these organizations.
At the same time, individual borrowers find that debt becomes more expensive to finance. Thus, it becomes more expensive to buy a home, vehicle, or farm. Debt to speculate in the stock market becomes more expensive. With higher debt costs, there is a tendency for asset prices, such as home prices and stock prices, to fall. With this combination (lower asset prices and higher interest rates) debt defaults are likely to become more common.
Quantitative Tightening makes it harder to obtain liquidity to buy goods internationally. This change is more subtle, but it also works in the direction of causing disruptions to financial markets.
Other stresses to the financial system can be expected, as well, in the near term. For example, Biden’s program that allows students to delay payments on their student loans will be ending in the next few months, adding more stress to the system. China has had huge problems with loans to property developers, and these may continue or get worse. Many of the poor countries around the world are asking the IMF to provide debt relief because they cannot afford energy supplies and other materials at today’s prices. Europe is concerned about possible high energy prices.
This is all happening at a time when total debt levels are even higher than they were in 2008. In addition to “regular” debt, the economic system includes trillions of dollars of derivative promises. Based on these considerations alone, a much worse crash than occurred in 2008 seems possible.
[2] The world as a whole is already headed into a major recession. This situation seems likely to get worse in 2023.
The Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) has been signaling problems for months. A few bullet points from their site include the following:
- Service sector output declined in October, registering the worst monthly performance since mid-2020.
- Manufacturing output meanwhile fell for a third consecutive month, also declining at the steepest rate since June 2020.
- PMI subindices showed new business contracting at the quickest rate since June 2020, with the weak demand environment continuing to be underpinned by declining worldwide trade.
- The global manufacturing PMI’s new export orders index has now signaled a reduction in worldwide goods exports for eight straight months.
- Price inflationary pressures remained solid in October, despite rates of increase in input costs and output charges easing to 19-month lows.
The economic situation in the US doesn’t look as bad as it does for the world as a whole, perhaps because the US dollar has been at a relatively high level. However, a situation with the US doing well and other countries doing poorly is unsustainable. If nothing else, the US needs to be able to buy raw materials and to sell finished goods and services to these other countries. Thus, recession can be expected to spread.
[3] The underlying issue that the world is starting to experience is overshoot and collapse, related to a combination of rising population and diminishing returns with respect to resource extraction.
In a recent post, I explained that the world seems to be reaching the limits of fossil fuel extraction. So-called renewables are not doing much to supplement fossil fuels. As a result, energy consumption per capita seems to have hit a peak in 2018 (Figure 1) and now cannot keep up with population growth without prices that rise to the point of becoming unaffordable for consumers.
The economy, like the human body, is a self-organizing system powered by energy. In physics terminology, both are dissipative structures. We humans can get along for a while with less food (our source of energy), but we will lose weight. Without enough food, we are more likely to catch illnesses. We might even die, if the lack of food is severe enough.
The world economy can perhaps get along with less energy for a while, but it will behave strangely. It needs to cut back, in a way that might be thought of as being analogous to a human losing weight, on a permanent basis. On Figure 1 (above), we can see evidence of two temporary cutbacks. One was in 2009, reflecting the impact of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. Another related to the changes associated with Covid-19 in 2020.
If energy supply is really reaching extraction limits, and this is causing the recent inflation, there needs to be a permanent way of cutting back energy consumption, relative to the output of the economy. I expect that changes in this direction will start happening about the time of the upcoming financial crash.
[4] A major financial crash in 2023 may adversely affect many people’s ability to buy goods and services.
A financial discontinuity, including major defaults that spread from country to country, is certain to adversely affect banks, insurance companies and pension plans. If problems are widespread, governments may not be able to bail out all these institutions. This, by itself, may make the purchasing of goods and services more difficult. Citizens may find that the funds they thought were in the bank are subject to daily withdrawal limits, or they may find that the value of shares of stock they owned is much lower. As a result of such changes, they will not have the funds to buy the goods they want, even if the goods are available in shops.
Alternatively, citizens may find that their local governments have issued so much money (to try to bail out all these institutions) that there is hyperinflation. In such a case, there may be plenty of money available, but very few goods to buy. As a result, it still may be very difficult to buy the goods a family needs.
[5] Many people believe that oil prices will rise in response to falling production. If the real issue is that the world is reaching extraction limits, the problem may be inadequate demand and falling prices instead.
If people have less to spend following the financial crash, based on the reasoning in Section [4], this could lead to lower demand, and thus lower prices.
It also might be noted that both the 2009 and 2020 dips in consumption (on Figure 1) corresponded to times of low oil prices, not high. Oil companies cut back on production if they find that prices are too low for them to expect to make a profit on new production.
We also know that a major problem as limits are reached is wage disparity. The wealthy use more energy products than poor people, but not in proportion to their higher wealth. The wealthy tend to buy more services, such as health care and education, which are not as energy intensive.
If the poor get too poor, they find that they must cut back on things like meat consumption, housing expenses, and transportation expenses. All these things are energy intensive. If very many poor people cut back on products that indirectly require energy consumption, the prices for oil and other energy products are likely to fall, perhaps below the level required by producers for profitability.
[6] If I am right about low energy prices, especially after a financial discontinuity, we can expect oil, coal, and natural gas production to fall in 2023.
Producers tend to produce less oil, coal and natural gas if prices are too low.
Also, government leaders know that high energy prices (especially oil prices) lead to high food prices and high inflation. If they want to be re-elected, they will do everything in their power to keep energy prices down.
[7] Without enough energy to go around, more conflict can be expected.
Additional conflict can be expected to come in many forms. It can look like local demonstrations by citizens who are unhappy about their wages or other conditions. If wage disparity is a problem, it will be the low-wage workers who will be demonstrating. I understand that demonstrations in Europe have recently been a problem.
Conflict can also take the form of wide differences among political parties, and even within political parties. The difficulty that the US recently encountered electing a Speaker of the House of Representatives is an example of such conflict. Political parties may splinter, making it difficult to form a government and get any business accomplished.
Conflict may also take the form of conflict among countries, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. I expect most wars today will be undeclared wars. With less energy to go around, the emphasis will be on approaches that require less energy. Deception will become important. Destruction of another country’s energy infrastructure, such as pipelines or electricity transmission, may be part of the plan. Another form of deception may involve the use of bioweapons and supposed cures for these bioweapons.
[8] After the discontinuity, the world economy is likely to become more disconnected and more regionally aligned. Russia and China will tend to be aligned. The US seems likely to be another center of influence.
A major use of oil is transporting goods and people around the globe. If there is not enough oil to go around, one way of saving oil is to transport goods over shorter distances. People can talk by telephone or video conferences to save on oil used in long distance transportation. Thus, increased regionalization seems likely to take place.
In fact, the pattern is already beginning. Russia and China have recently been forging long-term alliances centered on providing natural gas supplies to China and on strengthening military ties. Being geographically adjacent is clearly helpful. Furthermore, major US oil companies are now focusing more on developments in the Americas, rather than on big international projects, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Countries that are geographically close to Russia-China may choose to align with them, especially if they have resources or finished products (such as televisions or cars) to sell. Likewise, countries near the US with suitable products to sell may align with the United States.
Countries that are too distant, or that don’t have resources or finished products to sell (goods, rather than services), may largely be left out. For example, European countries that specialize in financial services and tourism may have difficulty finding trading partners. Their economies may shrink more rapidly than those of other countries.
[9] In a regionally aligned world, the US dollar is likely to lose its status as the world’s reserve currency.
With increased regionalization, I would expect that the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency would tend to disappear, perhaps starting as soon as 2023. For example, transactions between Russia and China may begin to take place directly in yuan, without reference to a price in US dollars, and without the need for US funds to allow such transactions to take place.
Transactions within the Americas seem likely to continue taking place using US dollars, especially when they involve the buying and selling of energy-related products.
With the US dollar as the reserve currency, the US has been able to import far more than it exports, year after year. Based on World Bank data, in 2021 the US imported $2.85 trillion of goods (including fossil fuels, but excluding services) and exported $1.76 trillion of goods, leading to a goods-only excess of imports over exports of $1.09 trillion. When exports of services are included, the excess of imports over exports shrinks to “only” $845 billion. It is hard to see how this large a gap can continue. Such a significant difference between imports and exports would tend to shrink if the US were to lose its reserve currency status.
[10] In a disconnected world, manufacturing of all kinds will fall, especially outside of Southeast Asia (including China and India), where a major share of today’s manufacturing is performed.
A huge share of today’s manufacturing capability is now in China and India. If these countries have access to oil from the Middle East and Russia, I expect they will continue to produce goods and services. If there are not enough of these goods to go around, I would expect that they would primarily be exported to other countries within their own geographic region.
The Americas and Europe will be at a disadvantage because they have fewer manufactured goods to sell. (The US, of course, has a significant quantity of food to export.) Starting in the 1980s, the US and Europe moved a large share of their manufacturing to Southeast Asia. Now, when these countries talk about ramping up clean energy production, they find that they are largely without the resources and the processing needed for such clean energy projects.
In fact, ramping up “regular” manufacturing production of any type in the US, (for example, local manufacturing of generic pharmaceutical drugs, or manufacturing of steel pipe used in the drilling of oil wells) would not be easy. Most of today’s manufacturing capability is elsewhere. Even if the materials could easily be gathered into one place in the US, it would take time to get factories up and running and to train workers. If some necessary items are lacking, such as particular raw materials or semiconductor chips, transitioning to US manufacturing capability might prove to be impossible in practice.
[11] After a financial discontinuity, “empty shelves” are likely to become increasingly prevalent.
We can expect that the total quantity of goods and services produced worldwide will begin to fall for several reasons. First, regionalized economies cannot access as diverse a set of raw materials as a world economy. This, by itself, will limit the types of goods that an economy can produce. Second, if the total quantity of raw materials used in making the inputs declines over time, the total amount of finished goods and services can be expected to fall. Finally, as mentioned in Section [4], financial problems may cut back on buyers’ ability to purchase goods and services, limiting the number of buyers available for finished products, and thus holding down sales prices.
A major reason empty shelves become can be expected to become more prevalent is because more distant countries will tend to get cut out of the distribution of goods. This is especially the case as the total quantity of goods and services produced falls. A huge share of the manufacturing of goods is now done in China, India, and other countries in Southeast Asia.
If the world economy shifts toward mostly local trade, the US and Europe are likely to find it harder to find new computers and new cell phones since these tend to be manufactured in Southeast Asia. Other goods made in Southeast Asia include furniture and appliances. These, too, may be harder to find. Even replacement car parts may be difficult to find, especially if a car was manufactured in Southeast Asia.
[12] There seem to be many other ways the self-organizing economy could shrink back to make itself a more efficient dissipative structure.
We cannot know in advance exactly how the economy will shrink back its energy consumption, besides regionalization and pushing the US dollar (at least partially) out of being the reserve currency. Some other areas where the physics of the economy might force cutbacks include the following:
- Vacation travel
- Banks, insurance companies, pension programs (much less needed)
- The use of financial leverage of all kinds
- Governmental programs providing payments to those not actively in the workforce (such as pensions, unemployment insurance, disability payments)
- Higher education programs (many graduates today cannot get jobs that pay for the high cost of their educations)
- Extensive healthcare programs, especially for people who have no hope of ever re-entering the workforce
In fact, the population may start to fall because of epidemics, poor health, or even too little food. With fewer people, limited energy supply will go further.
Governments and intergovernmental agencies may start to fail because they cannot get enough tax revenue. Of course, the underlying issue for the lack of tax revenue is likely to be that the businesses within the governed area cannot operate because they cannot obtain enough inexpensive energy resources for operation.
[13] Conclusion.
If the world economy experiences major financial turbulence in 2023, we could be in for a rough ride. In my opinion, a major financial crash seems likely. This is could upset the economy far more seriously than the 2008 crash.
I am certain that some mitigation measures can be implemented. For example, there could be a major push toward trying to make everything that we have today last longer. Materials can be salvaged from structures that are no longer used. And some types of local production can be ramped up.
We can keep our fingers crossed that I am wrong but, with fewer oil and other energy resources available per person, moving goods shorter distances makes sense. Thus, the initial trends we are seeing toward regionalization are likely to continue. The move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency also looks likely to continue. Moreover, if the changes I am talking about don’t occur in 2023, they are likely to begin in 2024 or 2025.
https://www.malaysiasun.com/news/273359298/thai-princess-remains-unconscious-since-collapsing-december-15
still on ice – but dead
100% they are keeping her alive to avoid having a royal funeral (she is next in line) which would draw enormous attention to the dangers of the Rat Juice
So Thai royalty is not too bright.
Who is next in line?
Well… she was next in line… but she’s dead…
I can’t wait for the reports of Fast Eddy goes flying.
Friday … two flights… If the plane rams into a mountain so what … I miss out on the end game … but then I miss out out the Gates of Hell possibly opening or a handful of Super Fent… not really missing much is there…
Just remember to give credit to where credit is due… UEP is a Fast Eddy Production
if covid vaccines stop covid deaths, then why do they keep bending curves the wrong way?
https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/if-covid-vaccines-stop-covid-deaths
FE, you made your point, something is not working. Celebrating death does not seem mentally nor probably physically healthy to me.
TESLA is up 7.34%, fluctuation, but right direction. Shocking, simply shocking I say. (Laugh, FE, it is a play on words and I am trying to get a charge out of you.)
Dennis L.
after down by 59%. Your point?
I realise that most of the people need hopium to survive. They cannot accept that things are going to end badly. We have a few here on OFW.
That is something I don’t understand … why don’t humans welcome their termination … we are a vile species that causes nothing but harm
Our research team watches the global water cycle closely. We analyze observations from more than 40 satellites that continuously monitor the atmosphere and Earth’s surface. We merge those with data from thousands of weather and water monitoring stations on the ground.
https://phys.org/news/2023-01-alarming-entire-global.html
For the first time, we’ve drawn on those many terabytes of data to paint a full picture of the water cycle over a year for the entire globe, as well as for individual countries. The findings are contained in a report released today.
The key conclusion? Earth’s water cycle is clearly changing. Globally, the air is getting hotter and drier, which means droughts and risky fire conditions are developing faster and more frequently.
….global temperatures will continue to increase. New records will continue to be broken: for heatwaves, cloudbursts, flash droughts, bushfires and ice melt.
There is no way to avoid that. What we can do is heed the warning signs and prepare for a challenging future.
The 2022 report and the underlying data are publicly available via http://www.globalwater.online.
This seems to be a direct link to the 32 page PDF report. Other material is also available.
https://wenfo.org/globalwater/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/GlobalWaterMonitor_2022_SummaryReport.pdf
It goes without saying that whatever the cycles look like, we cannot fix them by our human actions, other than perhaps by killing off a lot of people.
From the report:
Summary Quotes for 2022:
The low air humidity finding seems to be the biggest thing the researchers found, the way I read the report. There is a lot of information for different parts of the world regarding what happened in 2022.
‘Dry conditions prevailed nearly everywhere except for regions experiencing high rainfall.’
Duh, dry except where it was wet…
‘Despite warmer and drier conditions, high annual soil water conditions were observed in many regions.’
Ummm, drier but not drier….
Who gets paid for this drivel; its yes,except when its no, and its up, except when its down.
Nice work if you can get it; basically more hot air about hot air.
Keep in mind the same audience that falls for the Rat Juice… is also very receptive to this GW idi ocy.
Cuz….
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-SBpzmQtecp0/TfZT4AhGq2I/AAAAAAAAADk/WYLM_n_5BFA/s1600/drumroll.gif
Thanks, will print and read; very interested in midwest, imagine that.
Dennis L.
Irrelevant. All such concerns are irrelevant. There is nothing we can do.
Sure it is…until it’s connected…when the food shelves are empty, then it becomes revelation…
Like the part of creating dams contribute in changing the cycle…
Of course, the dams will provide clean energy…
Read somewhere a study in which they traced more cloud creation …
Sure, just like the COVID Vax campaign, governments will announce they will undertake climate geo engineering to say us all…my feeling it will provide the same results as the Vax ..making a great deal of profits ( from government funds as suggested by Rex Tillerson of Exxon and Government fame) to do something…
The food shelves will be empty and no doubt it will be blamed on the weather.
But it will be a lie just like it was in 300 AD when Diocletian blamed bad weather.
Every bad outcome has multiple reasons.
Diocletian was one of the best Roman emperors, even came back from retirement as I recall. Wonderful retirement home in Split, Croatia, wonderful town square with grapes and great produce, very nice people.
So, with all this rain coming, I shall let a smile be my umbrella.
Dennis L.
Diocletian died a disheartened man…Witnessed the totaled breakdown of his system of rule and to make matters worse his daughter, Galeria, was held captive by a junior member, Maximus Daza, and he had to stoop to request for her release by an official Diocletian knew after her husband Emperor’s r, Galerius, died. It was ignored and at a conference he headed they failed to straighten the mess after. He died a few years after and his daughter empress was executed by Emperor Lincinius, after a civil war with Maximus Daza
I, too, studiedthe Late Roman Empire and famines…not that the soil was depleted and the peasants we’re oppressed and would abandoned their estate, while Diocletian government that was bloated by creating four administrations and took payment in kind…
Yes. There were famines and we are likely to witness them again …hope Bill Gates will be able to cultivate all that farmland he purchased as an inflationary hedge…
It wasn’t bloated by creating 4 administrations, that’s just propaganda.
That was scaling down and devolution.
Payment in kind they had to do once the currency was worthless, especially for the troops rations. But there just wasn’t enough.
We can adapt, and yes there are ways to adapt land to wetter conditions.
Given a choice of no water and too much, too much seems like a good way to adapt. Cinderella was a fairytale as I recall.
DennisL.
If you can adapt to be able to live without water, you might look like a camel.
Let’s talk about how waves damage coastlines during storms… let’s bleat on and on and on about it… day after day we can just complain about those f789ing waves.
Then we can bitch about the Van Allen Belts — imagine the things we could do if only we could get past those suckers.
Humbug.
Garbage in Garbage out
Been wettest coldest weather here in NZ for years. Australia lots of floods.
This model is safe and effective; safe for the narrative, effective for pop control.
Climate is a changling; always has been.
CO2 is plant food.
We are here to free up all that stored carbon so plants can again rule the world.
“plants can again rule the world.”
Perhaps that is the outcome that modelers don’t want to consider. It is not that everything dies; it is that species that thrive on CO2 do better than others.
Nope, the fabric of the universe has a great deal of effort in we humans, He is not done yet, patience grasshopper.
Dennis L.
That is like the scoreboard says 60-0 with 2 minutes remaining at 4th Qtr and expect the game to be not over yet.
Anything is possible. Never lose hope. Rules can change. Haha… this going to be so good.
And we’ve burned most of it up so time to exit!
Well done humans … Mission Accomplished… the system is functioning perfectly
Said with a smile, NZ seems to have a number of very grumpy people.
Dennis L.
There was a time not long ago when Brits generally styled themselves as Alexanders. ‘Hey, Alexander is practically my middle name!’
More seriously, we can see how the idea that a ‘civilizational mission’ justifies aggressive geopolitical agency – and indeed NATO habitually frames its geopolitical conflict of interests with other states, eg. Russia, Iran, China, Iraq, Syria, Libya &c. in terms of a binary polarisation of the world into ‘democratic’ and ‘authoritarian’ states – is a very old schtick used by Greeks and Romans as well as the British, and no doubt long before.
Indeed religions tend to get used in an analogous way to justify aggressive geopolitical agency, eg. the Crusades or Islamic expansionism. States tend to weaponize cultural and political difference in that way. People ‘believe’ in different things in different times and places, and these days Westerners are ‘believers’ in ‘liberal democracy’, and so that is weaponised as a pretext for war; but the broader pattern of cultural pretext is persistent, while the use of ‘liberal democracy’ is incidental or historically relative. It is the same old story.
https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/10.2307/40388969
> In the Footsteps of the ‘Macedonian Conqueror”: Alexander the Great and British India
The prevalence of classical education coupled with the ready availability of ancient and modern sources describing his history made Alexander the Great a tangible presence for Britons writing about and working in India during the 19th century. The imperial significance of Alexander’s presence is perhaps clearest in the extent to which the classical descriptions of India surrounding his career contributed to British characterisations of Indian civilisation as stagnant or retrograde. This was one pillar in the ideological edifice of British imperial domination of India, and it is the imperial dimension of the classical tradition most often stressed by scholars. It is also clear that many Britons linked to India saw themselves reprising Alexander’s explorations, conquests, and even his world-historical mission to civilise Asia. However chimerical it now seems, this belief was a powerful element in British imperial identity. And while it made Alexander’s life a source of precedents to be mined, refined, and deployed to justify the imperial project, it also made his life a source of inspiration to the soldiers who conquered and garrisoned India, the adventurers and antiquarians who explored it, and the civil servants and statesmen who administered it.
…. With all this in mind it would be surprising if Alexander had not been a part of British intellectual culture in India. And yet, even Alexander’s prominence in elite education and intellectual culture at the centre coupled with geographical coincidence on the periphery does not explain entirely the fascination exerted by his history on Britons involved with India. The rest of the answer lies in a belief implied by Elphinstone’s reflection on the ‘Hyphasis’, and apparently fixed in the minds of many of his countrymen, that the British were now following in Alexander’s footsteps, in a political and cultural, as well as simply geographical sense. They saw themselves re-enacting, at a two millennia remove, Alexander’s explorations, conquests, and ultimately even his world-historical mission; and, of course, exposing themselves to the same physical and moral dangers he had so cavalierly chanced. However chimerical it now seems, this belief made Alexander’s history relevant to the present, and therefore significant to British attitudes and actions with regard to their Indian empire. To read Curtius on a riverbank in the Punjab was not mere ‘idling’. It was also something like an act of communion with a historical predecessor, whose career of exploration, conquest, and ‘civilisation’, offered varying degrees of knowledge, rationalisation, and inspiration to those involved in Britain’s imperial project.
The ‘British Grenadiers’ song/ march now sounds like a cringey curiosity, but it easy to miss how the classics, and Alexander in particular, functioned in the popular imagination as an ideological underpinning that afforded the British Empire a ‘civilisational’ and ‘heroic’ mission that functioned as a pretext for geopolitical expansionism.
> Some talk of Alexander, and some of Hercules
Of Hector and Lysander, and such great names as these.
Whene’er we are commanded to storm the palisades,
Our leaders march with fusees, and we with hand grenades.
The equivalent now might be liberal democratic icons: “Some talk of John Stuart Mill, and others of Thomas Payne / of Thomas Jefferson and Benjamin Franklin / Our proxies fire our MANPADS and HIMARS”
Wars for ‘liberal democracy’ and against ‘authoritarian states’ is the latest rehash of a very worn pretext of a ‘civilisational mission’. ‘Belief’ is ordered to war.
Ultimately we would have to say that ‘dissipative’ energetic structures, driven by the Maximum Power Principle, are ‘happy’ to marshal that corn.
Britain is an irrelevant fossil. It is far too weak to actually fight the much larger countries that it threatens, China and Russia.
Britain was temporarily powerful because it had a lot of coal.
But today Russia produces twice as much coal as Britain did at its peak, and China produces more than twenty times as much. Britain produces practically none.
Yes for sure, I was taking it as understood that USA is in the driving seat now both as geopolitical power and as narrative spinner.
“NATO”. UK is basically a poodle to USA now and with no geopolitical agency of its own.
Yes, but it had Watt who knew a bit about steel, water, and coal.
It is the people and more and more I think it is the society organized about a religion which meets the spiritual as well as practical needs of the parishioners.
Modern culture has a great deal of trash with incessant decadence. Doubt it? Listen to “Bad Romance” by Lady Gaga. It is a great foxtrot if one ignores the lyrics. It is an invitation to self destruction. Kids are young, we are exposing them to terrible ideas which lead to irreversible mistakes for them and society loses the value of their future efforts.
Dennis L.
NATO needs to take up the containment of Islam.
NATO pretty much already employed the polarity of ‘democracies’/ ‘theocratic Islam’ as the basis for a ‘civilizational mission’ for geopolitical interventions in the ‘War on Terror’ and then the war against ISIS. Bush and Blair had their day.
USA got kicked out of Afghanistan, is out of Iraq, but it still has some troops in Syria. North Africa did not really work out for USA either.
But generally geopolitics are complicated these days, and NATO relies heavily on Muslim states as partners, particularly for energy.
Any ‘far right wingers’ who are pinning their hopes on a repeat of the Crusades are living in an anachronistic fantasy world that is going nowhere. Kulm’s sci-fi ‘mission’ has about as much geopolitical traction in the real world.
States employ narratives as and when it suits them to do so, not to please an eccentric ideological faction with entirely different objectives. The narratives may occasionally overlap, but very often they will not.
Ed,
For some reason over the years I had a fair number of Islamic patients. They were very nice people and in Rochester I find the dress of the women far more appropriate than that of many of the other young.
I am not a prude, I don’t think our culture is working very well, and our ideas on sex don’t seem to make a good, working society. There is incredible confusion.
Islam did come up with some good ideas, arabic numbers would be one; for some reason they stopped.
Dennis L.
I agree Dennis. Our Western liberal “culture” (if you can call it that) is not working very well at all. We have been hijacked by a program of internal destruction. Nihilism, hopelessness, overgrown children, mass unemployment of youth, plugged into endless entertainment on the go, 24/7 indoctrination with “progressive” policies that leave young people confused and directionless.
The response to this is already visibly rising in many western nations and will most likely revert to previous values out of necessity. “Liberals” won’t do very well in that environment.
Today, the fashion seems to believe in “scientific” models. If a chart seems to show that renewables can save us, it must be believed. If it shows that climate change is our worst problem, it must be believed. If it shows a “vaccine” will save millions of lives, it must be believed.
Kulm presents an idiosyncratic version of the ‘civilisational mission’ that employs scientific/ sci-fi tropes, like ‘AI’, ‘singularity’, ‘next technological stage of civilisation’, ‘space inhabitation’, as a pretext for geopolitical aggression and assertiveness on the demographic, energy and resource fronts.
It is easy to dismiss his narrative construct as weird but it follows the same basic pattern of other ‘civilisational mission’ narratives that marshal cultural ‘belief’ as a geopolitical justification. In his case it is our supposed ‘belief’ in the potential of Western science to ‘save’ us; in other cases, it is our ‘belief’ in religion, or in the virtues of capitalism, or a particular political system, or even an ethnic mission abroad.
There are all sorts of ‘missionaries’ that marshal ‘belief’ and a belief-centered ‘civilisational mission’ to geopolitical objectives around the world. They are not necessarily religious ‘missionaries’, the narratives can be centered around other cultural belief, be it science, economics, politics or whatever.
The use of ‘liberal democracy’ as a pretext for NATO to militarily intervene in MENA during the ‘Arab Spring’ period is a recent example. And NATO is attempting to reuse the ‘liberal democratic’/ ‘authoritarian’ binary polarisation of states as a pretext for its militarism against Russia and China. Really it is all about the waning of USA geopolitical hegemony and the USA resort to war to try to halt that relative decline. ‘Belief’ functions as motivation and as window-dressing for the moralistic ‘plebs’ and troops.
It is not just religions that ’cause’ wars – or better, are marshalled as a pretext for wars – secular ideologies get used just as much if not more these days. The common feature is the marshalling of cultural ‘belief’ as the foundation of a ‘civilisational mission’ that is marshalled as a pretext for aggressive geopolitical agency. The ‘beliefs’ are relative to the time and place, but they get used as pretext in the same way. ‘Liberal democracy’ is the new ‘religion’ in that geopolitical sense.
They are trying to impose a new religion which offers salvation only in this world and which is actually only a fake copy of what is really science.
The clergy is the main stream media.
The altar servers are the politicians, because they actually don’t decide nothing, but they simply apply directions.
We will see what will happen, but I don’t think it will something good.
Most of us don’t think about the importance of “narratives of the day.” We assume that there is only one “version” of the truth. The truth depends on which of competing narratives a person believes.
If cutting back population is the most important thing to be accomplished today, and the military are in charge of that, perhaps the strange coronavirus–vaccine scenario can be understood. The population likely to be cut back most by the coronavirus/vaccine are the ones using the most energy–thus the wealthier economies
Inadequate food supply (related to inadequate fertilizer, drought, and international conflict) is also cutting back population. Poor people everywhere will be most affected by this.
I was curious during these days to understand what is the narrative in magrheb and middle east area and I started watching some satellite tv channels and read some websites of news.
Well, coronavirus and vaccine are completely absent by their news.
I think that it is also related to the fact that their population use very low energy per capita and so they don’t need to low the numbers…
“Indeed religions tend to get used in an analogous way to justify aggressive geopolitical agency.” Not sure about that one but, religions which are successful have a set of rules, e.g. Ten Commandments the failure to follow of which was once upon a time confessed to a priest who admonished said sinner to go and do better. It was a weekly reminder as well as a personal interest in the individual confessing, someone cared and said so albeit with a somewhat formal admonition.
Sundays had wonderful music, fellowship with children in SS and parents in worship. A homily, or sermon repeated lessons of the past learned at great cost. No, it wasn’t perfect, but it was tax deductible and the ideas mostly worked for most people.
We are seemingly now at the end of the enlightenment which believed all could be explained rationally and distinctly. Nope, we are back to stories about the cosmos being come computer game with a master programmer. Second verse, same as the first.
There aren’t many “earths” in the universe, the creator has gone to considerable effort to get us here; chairs will be rearranged, some removed, but life will go on.
Dennis L.
Alexander never did what he said, Cesare never said what he did….
– Machiavelli
And Macchiavelli did what he said, but it doesn’t mean it was a good thing 😀
It’s a winning strategy though!
China’s population decreased by 850,000 in 2022, but we all know that’s a small number for China.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202301/17/WS63c64be3a31057c47ebaa22d.html
Yes, I’ve seen that all news are talking about that today.
As I’ve realized that normally MSM talks of the opposite of what it is happening or try to focus on the opposite of what really matters, I think that MSM is talking about China decrease of population because they don’t want to talk about the problem of excess deaths in our Countries (western Countries) after the launch of mRNA so called vaccines.
In Italy there is a way of saying:
il merlo dice al corvo: ‘quanto sei nero!’
the say in English is the pot calling the kettle black. same idea..
I don’t know how much we can believe the current population estimates from China. I remember a lot of earlier articles saying that China’s population numbers may be overstated:
From 2019:
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3018829/chinas-population-numbers-are-almost-certainly-inflated-hide
China’s population numbers are almost certainly inflated to hide the harmful legacy of its family planning policy
China has inflated its population data so much that its status as the world’s most populous country may be false. This happens so provinces can get education subsidies and Beijing can hide the results of decades of family planning.
China’s official demographic figures, including the now-cliched “country of 1.4 billion people”, seriously misrepresent the country’s real population landscape. The real size of China’s population could be 115 million fewer than the official number, putting China behind India in terms of population.
From 2021:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/
Researcher questions China’s population data, says it may be lower
The difference in these two numbers is 130 million.
Yes and it’s the septic tank of the world… a stinking sewer of a country.
The food crisis will cause more harm to the undeveloped population and poor of the BAU than the “rat juice” in the months ahead…
2022 saw a rapid increase in food prices and shortages of food supplies around the world. The compounding crises in distinct parts of the world were caused by compounding geopolitical and economic crisis. The crises followed food security and economic crises during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fertilizer prices 1992–2022. The 2007–2008 world food crisis happened when fertilizer prices spiked.
DAP Potassium chloride Phosphorite Triple Superphosphate Urea
Following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Food and Agriculture Organization, as well as other observers of the food commodities markets, warned of a collapse in food supply and price increases.[1][2][3][4][5][6] Much of the concern is related to supply shortages of key commodity crops, such as wheat, corn, and oil seeds, which could cause price increases.[3] [6]The invasion also led to fuel and associated fertilizer price increases, causing further food shortfalls and price increases.[5][6]
Even before the invasion, food prices were already at record highs. As of February 2022, year-over-year food prices were up 20%, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.[7] The war further increased year-over-year prices another 40% in March.[8] The compounding issues, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as climate-related crop failures, are expected to reverse global trends in reducing hunger and malnutrition.[9]
Some regions, such as East Africa and Madagascar, were already experiencing drought and famine due to agricultural system failures and climate change,[10][11] and the price increases are expected to make the situation worse.[5][8] Even Global North countries that usually have secure food supplies, such as the UK and US, are beginning to experience the direct impacts of cost inflation due to food insecurity.[12] Some analysts described the price increases as the worst since the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[8] Though initial international responses to the food crisis suggested that some suppliers or harvests may alleviate global shortages and price increases (e.g. a proposed influx of grain from India), as of June 2022 no international efforts have been effective at alleviating prices.[13] The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023 described the Food supply crises as an ongoing global risk.[14]
I checked to see where this is from (not that it is wrong). It looks a lot like the 2022-2023 Food Crisis article from Wikipedia. I think that the article is about correct, unfortunately. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022–2023_food_crises
Which is a more impossible task….
Convincing a green groopied that GW, renewable energy and EVs are con jobs…
Or
Convincing a pro vaxxer that the rat juice is deadly and worse than useless…
How the limits to growth are hitting the population
Recently, I have heard a story about the current Speaker of the Slovak Parliament B.K.
He is known to be a polygamist. The desperate women come to him in hope of having a child and being financially secured. He has got a practice of puuping on the woman after the sx intrcrs. One such woman, who was dissatisfied after being endowed by a watery puup, went to the police to report it…
Normal behavior among the empire puppets. They might be all that, but they will be protected so long as they obey 100% orders from Washington. He is safe, worry not. Enjoy western values.
They are not western values, they are just the signs of the limits. Anywhere, be it the west or the east.
Research has shown that historically, there have been far fewer fathers than mothers. High status men tended to father a disproportionate share of the babies. That hasn’t changed as much as we think it has.
It is interesting that fewer males are born during the decline.
https://phys.org/news/2019-06-males-born-periods-stress.html
But today, we have also weaker women, when children with various inborn defects are saved by the medicine.
His mothers are practically single mothers who complain about the father that is not able to provide time to all children.
https://diva.aktuality.sk/clanok/81yhiwI/vojna-kollarovych-zien-nazory-si-vymienaju-verejne-podla-jednej-sa-boris-o-svoje-deti-nestara-druha-si-mysli-opak-napokon-sa-ozvala-aj-sama-jeho-dcera-alexandra/
I also doubt about their ability to withstand the reality that is coming and will affect all.
Also, during the current implosion era, the children do not have much energy to help their parents, as their work does not allow them to be with their parents.
This time it is different.
Inflation/deflation
CAM is a program which goes between CAD and a CNC machine which accepts G code.
chatGPT can write G code. CAM programs such as MasterCAM are hugely expensive; puff, no more CAM, that company collapses, price of CAM goes to zero. It will take a while, there are crash issues where a tool is dragged through steel to get to a starting point. Good income for a CNC repairman.
CNC to my understanding neither leans left nor right, no political issues at first approximation.
Have heard rumors OpenIA runs interesting electrical bills, say $3M/month.
chatGPT can write G code
it will write code recycled from other code that it reads without understanding it. Every single part will have to be checked and double checked.
A bit like Tesla self driving. The car drives itself but you must have your hands on the wheel and pay attention at all times just as though you were driving yourself. Pointless.
I just watched a recent Tesla FSD video and the car drives like a 5-year old. It stopped abruptly in the intersection during a left turn. It jammed the wheel in the wrong direction while stopped at a light before a turn. All in the first minute – I turned it off as there was no sense watching further.
The problem with “AI” is we haven’t figured out the brain’s neural learning algorithm and most “AI” engineers today are just doing bayesian backpropagation, basically developed in the 1960’s, but on modern hardware. It’s insufficient for the job.
There are a great many things… that are not possible … and never will be
A toddler learning to walk looks clumsy too. And before you know it they can outrun your old carcas.
Plenty of people think approaches to AI should start from scratch, but it looks like we’re stuck in the rut neural nets, big data etc for now. Shame, because I think this approach has been a huge waste of time.
A general learning algo will come and then it’s game over.
A general learning algo will come and then it’s game over.
The power will go off and the food trucks will stop coming long before any such fantasy can come true.
“it looks like we’re stuck in the rut neural nets […] I think this approach has been a huge waste of time.”
I agree. There are what I consider more promising avenues being pursued by at least a handful of people. It’s impossible to know what might be going on behind closed doors, though.
Question: AI if you want to submit you have to answer a skill testing question
AI: A skills test is an assessment that objectively measures the test subject’s aptitude and practical abilities. It is sometimes called a skill set test or a skills assessment test. Companies may administer this type of test in person or remotely online. Skills tests are usually used to evaluate job candidates.
Question: How many sides are in a square
AI: square: [noun] an instrument having at least one right angle and two straight edges used especially to lay out or test right angles.
The facility I work for has over 50 machines…most run by CNC. Some stupid distant AI will never control them. It takes lots of human care and programming. It also take the CAM programmer regularly visiting with and monitoring the machining on the floor. And working out problems.
Now, we are implementing automatic monitoring that records machine speeds, etc. It detects abnormalities such as coolant or oil overheating. IT is not AI…never will be.
You and google can dream your AI dreams…
AI … hahahahahaha
AI = Keep paying us, we promise you it’ll be great….when we get there, c. 2080.
Luddite.
Inflation/deflation
Scenario: Interest rates on Federal debt rise faster than tax receipts( inverse of current situation, see for example CA which has inverted), interest rates compound, absorb all/most Federal income, money can’t be printed, no one wants it.
Money is transactional, if it is not accepted, deflation in transacted dollars, no money that is accepted, no money. One does not want to be the one standing when the music stops.
It is a debt/savings problem. Savings is a maintenance of wealth issue.
My guess, deflation. E.g. used cars, homes, farm inputs – yes farm inputs.
Exception: possibly TSLA, information and energy are indistinguishable, TSLA is heavy into quantum computing. It is not a car company, it is an information company.
Dennis L.
information and energy are indistinguishable
Information and energy are very disinguishable in the same way that a picture of a banana will not ease your hunger but an actual banana will.
With a major debt collapse, I agree that money supply will disappear and deflation will occur, it there is no government or IMF that steps in to try to fix the situation. For example, Sri Lanka without a bail out.
If the US government (or UK government) steps in and creates a lot of essentially worthless money and somehow distributes it to people, there can be hyperinflation. But there likely won’t be goods to actually import based on this printed money because currency values will readjust to reflect the printed money. The problem will be empty shelves. The UK has already tried this approach and figured out that it doesn’t really work very well.
> With a major debt collapse, I agree that money supply will disappear and deflation will occur […] For example, Sri Lanka without a bail out.
No, exactly the opposite. Or perhaps I misunderstand you:
Sri Lanka’s currency imploded *before* the the bail out with massive inflation, not deflation.
Price inflation in LKR terms:
https://www.business-standard.com/article/international/sri-lanka-inflation-surges-to-21-5-in-march-2022-amid-economic-crisis-122042200859_1.html
Simultaneous devaluation of the currency (switch to the 5-year chart)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDLKR/
You are right. The people can’t buy any imported goods including fertilizer, because of their falling currency.
I haven’t checked, but the banks in Sri Lanka presumably haven’t failed, and there haven’t been huge debt defaults. It is “just” that most people cannot afford to buy necessities, even the few locally grown necessities that are available.
The deflation problem occurs only when the banks fail and cause the debt bubble that is holding up “demand” to fail. Somehow, people in Sri Lanka are able to find the funds to bid up prices to high levels, presumably because they still have jobs and banks are still open. It has to be the “right” combination of things that fails.
Sri Lanka’s banks are in limbo with the old extend and pretend, informally in this case, while awaiting the IMF board.
It’s almost an identical situation with Pakistan and Bangladesh and maybe, too, Tunisia.
maybe it’s being chewed over in Davos?
@reante, @Withnail, @Xabier, @Kulm, @Cromagnon
Intensive gardening, Permaculture, how ever you name it, does not work without fallow periods. Usually it is used for animals or planting leguminous plants to gain back nitrogen. It is also not a guarantee against famine, that may have multiple causes. Neither it is a solution to an excess birthrate.
If anyone wants to bump their head against the wall, they can’t complain about headache.
If we go on to do agriculture the way we are doing currently, replacing tractors by humans and animals and fertilzer by nothing we will harvest a big lot less.
Intensive gardening means to compost biomass, also from areas that are not suited for agriculture. It means to let earthworms digest the biomass and to enrich it with a microbiom from nettle manure (or nettle jay). Apparently cow manure adds to this. These microorganisms enrich the soil with minerals from rock and sand. As rain or irrigation washes the minerals out, a substance is needed to keep them in the upper levels, that could be charcoal. Especially phosphate must be kept in the cycle by composting feces. Eventually it is needed to add sand or clay to get the right structure.
A garden like that needs crop rotation and a large variety of plants and sorts, to avoid bas harvests.
As harvest yield depends on a lot of factors people have invented trade and storage. In the moment this is not possible anymore hunger times come back. Also from hunter-gatherers is known that they suffer bad times. The Inuits ‘went into the snow’. Our ancestors have apparently managed to survive as a species under these conditions. People have obviously migrated in the past and not to get a free mercedes.
We have the choice to survive with little or with even less. If we don’t have any replacement for fossiles the bad solution is better than the worse.
The problem is that we have separated food production from housing, that would mean a lot of transport to and from the worked land. The problem is not only to produce food but also to bring that into the cities. In the past that limited cities’s growth. And without proper packaging hygiene issues will add. The problem is even more complex.
Obviously there is land suited only for keeping livestock and other allows farming. One solution does not fit all.
A switch to an agriculture with ‘a healthy soil’ cannot be implemented in a few hours. Knowledge has to be deployed. How many time do we have? I don’t believe in 500 years. I guess hunger will come soon, within the next years.
I don’t see any problems with overpopulation. If we assume that every year 10% die we are 12% of the starting value in 20 years. Not even one generation.
Landsize depends on quality, workers and the user’s requirements, so that is hard to answer.
We are running with seeing eyes in our desaster, as you say in German. To me that seems we are not administering the talents we got correctly.
Jan
“Intensive gardening, Permaculture, how ever you name it, does not work without fallow periods. Usually it is used for animals or planting leguminous plants to gain back nitrogen. It is also not a guarantee against famine, that may have multiple causes.”
Leguminous cover crops can produce crops and fix nitrogen in the same lifecycle. Mulch can fix nitrogen. Manure can fix nitrogen. Free soil bacteria can fix nitrogen from the air. Low-lying non-crop bearing legumes can be interplanted to fix nitrogen. Most important of all, adequate populations of protozoa, as the primary nutrient cyclers they are, are necessary for adequate nitrogen cycling.
Plant growth itself fertilizes the soil biology by releasing exudates. I acknowledge that many of the modern breeds of vegetables are bred for hypertrophy such that they are ‘selfish’ plants only thinking of themselves and therefore aren’t very good anymore at making exudates because they’ve been spoonfed artificial fertilizers for so many generations, so they no longer need to interact much with their microbial symbionts.
Biological gardening is about nurturing maximum biological momentum through the growing season, making sure that the microbes are well-fed going into winter so that
the fall garden, the overwintering plants for spring harvest and the in-ground winter
storage root vegetables, can maintain as much biological activity as possible during the dormant season, and doing it all over again next year.
Fallowing — ‘resting’ — healthy biological beds would be choosing to kill healthy momentum which is everything.
Craig
Well, this is insane. I am a DOT medical examiner not FAA and I have refused to medically clear big rig truck drivers for EKG’s that the FAA will now tolerate. Not looking forward to flying.
Guy LeBlake
Imagine if the diabetes society suddenly…yet with no announcement… decided that the blood/sugar rate could be more than doubled, and doctors were told to not mention this to their patients.
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly/comments
In the October 2022 version of the FAA Guide for Aviation Medical Examiners, the FAA quietly widened the EKG parameters beyond the normal range (from a PR max of .2 to unlimited). And they didn’t widen the range by a little. They widened it by a lot. It was done after the vaccine rollout.
This is extraordinary. They did it hoping nobody would notice. It worked for a while. Nobody caught it.
But you can’t hide these things for long.
This is a tacit admission from the US government that the COVID vaccine has damaged the hearts of our pilots. Not just a few pilots. A lot of pilots and a lot of damage.
https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-faa-has-very-quietly-tacitly
Soon they will be flying with only “1 pilot” to save money and help with the pilot shortage. FAA already approved.
Watch the sales of desk top computer flight simulators increase if only one pilot, if only to see where the flight controls and instruments are in case as a passenger, I suddenly need in mid flight to upgrade my private pilots license from single engine land to ATP commercial, instrument rated, multi engine and type- Boeing, 737 , 777 etc or Airbus. /s. If we can be key board economists, warriors, and medical experts then certainly key board aviators should be a snap/s.
ChatGPT knows how the fly and land the plane. Once we get the brain implants working then an artificial intelligence can simply take control of your body until landing.
But does it know kung fu?
China is rapidly, rapidly ageing
https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/16/economy/china-population-decline-sixty-years-intl-hnk/index.html
Who can understand/learn that complicated script and language? Some intellectuals?
“China is destroying itself”?
https://energyskeptic.com/2022/maos-war-against-nature/
But they are very intelligent!!! Why would intelligent beings do such things?
I lived in China for a year — China is a f789ing filthy hell hole of a country — the pollution in both the air and water is legendary — it’s the septic dump for all the world’s toxins…
And most people hope that the intelligent humans can live on and continue to destroy
That in itself demonstrates the utter stooopidity of these 8B MOREONS.
Seriously
And if anyone disagrees please go get a Booster
FE,
Pollution is why we move all this filth to space; Musk’s large rocket might work, should be tested early this year.
Dennis L.
The law of entropy tells us that it is impossible to fix pollution using technology.
You can only create more overall pollution.
sarc?
Otherwise this makes you a … you know
Great idea, love it!
I’ll start firing my own waste into space as soon as personal launch rockets appear on the market. Has Elon announced those yet?
Fred,
Never bring the waste to the planet, do all manufacturing/mining in space or on the moon, or on venus, mercury is a bit hot.
Only take sufficient capital equipment to space, mine the rest there, throw the waste at the sun, where ever.
Use the moon as a manufacturing base, pollute at will, don’t bother to shield reactors in extremis. Robots after initial placement.
Maybe it takes 200 years, trivial in the lifespan of the human race.
It beats the future many are seeing here. The pivot point will the Starship, does it go up or boom?
Dennis L.
It is always interesting that things often develop more slowly than one might think.
Currently, some economic indicators seem to be improving again, and the mood in the economy seems to be gradually brightening. One suspects that the recession as a whole will be milder than previously assumed.
Difficult to predict. But our system still seems to be tougher and more enduring than one might think.
I’m curious to see whether or not the financial crash will really happen before the end of 2023.
harry – there are several economies not just one. There is the real economy where people actually go to a job and do something physical, get paid, then consume. This economy is declining ever faster. The main economy of the west is financial, money making money, making money, which in theory the finance folks can keep coming up with ways to keep it up, even if it is a zombie it can always be pump money into it making it look good. This is fake but the money that everyone tosses around can still be used to buy anything and anyone.
The real economy can just keep getting worse all the time and as long as the media don’t report it its not a problem.
I work in industry (in Germany) and I see all these problems coming our way, too – no question about it.
Nevertheless, I find it somewhat fascinating that the forecasts for 2023 currently seem to be brightening up. According to the motto “the mood was worse than the actual situation”.
I have no illusions either, the drama will run its course sooner or later.
Currently, one of my company’s A customers (high-end metal processing) has been practically completely paralyzed by a major cyber attack. These problems seem to be increasing more and more. Whether this is the work of a criminal gang or already part of hybrid warfare, I don’t know of course, but it is quite frightening.
Inflation/deflation?
Blackrock is thinking deflation.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/blackrock-vice-chair-hildebrand-sees-inflation-dropping-very-very-quickly-but-thinks-central-banks-won-t-stop-tightening/ar-AA16pQ9T?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=455f0e394b5c466f8b4f70cbc2aec6e6
Philipp Hildebrand, vice chairman of BlackRock Inc (NYSE: BLK) reportedly said he expects inflation to decline rapidly and that central banks would continue on their tightening path.
inflation of basic essentials.
deflation of non-essentials.
not on every single item in the world, and not every day of the year.
but over time, this MUST be the pattern.
que sera sera.
What you mean is ‘price inflation/deflation’, which are bastard terms. Inflation and deflation are monetary phenomena.
The price of essentials will drop less than the price of discretionary goods but the real costs of both will increase because there will be relatively less money chasing goods than before deflation hit, which causes demand destruction which forces down prices.
In no scenario could you see prices rise for essential goods and prices drop for discretionary goods over an extended period of time because the drop in discretionary goods would cause a massive wave of bankruptcies and defaults, in turn causing the deflationary dynamics above. This is because most goods and services are discretionary.
inflation/deflation is transactional and includes transactional values; I think all fiat currency is transactional and does not store wealth.
Dennis L.
Prices are transactional. When credit is 90+PC of the money supply, transactionality is implied in the respective definition of the ‘flations’ as the increase/decrease of money plus credit relative to available goods and services. These are monetary terms of economic theory, they are not price terminologies. If you want to say rising prices say rising prices. If you want to say falling prices say falling prices. If we start calling prices movements inflation or deflation then the monetary phenomena no longer have any terminology to describe them. Language is built to be based on pure Reason because biology is built on pure Reason.
In no scenario could you see prices rise for essential goods and prices drop for discretionary goods over an extended period of time
Makes no sense. If food production falls and continues to fall, food prices will indeed continue to rise relative to non essential goods.
If food production falls low enough, it will cost you your house or car for a loaf of bread but a Rolex watch will cost a few pennies.
Withnail
“Makes no sense. If food production falls and continues to fall, food prices will indeed continue to rise relative to non essential goods.”
You’re not engaging with what I’m saying, you’re just repeating what’s already in your head. Which is to say that even though I am talking to you, with information, we are effectively talking past each other.
I specifically said “over an extended period of time” for a reason. A catastrophic global famine is not a scenario in which monetary phenomena change in relatively stable disequilibrium over an extended period of time as with, say, annual inflation rates under 100%.
If there’s a global famine, which is a different context from what Dennis and me were talking about, and one which results in hyperinflation in some areas — which indeed it would — then I agree, food prices will rise relative to the prices of discretionary goods. But that still doesn’t negate what I said, because I specifically talked in terms of nominal price decreases and you’re changing the subject to relative price
comparison.
In order to be a legitimate inflationista, one first has to truly understand what deflation is, so that one can them know what inflation really is.
In a famine-driven hyperinflation in an economy with no external reserve currency on
which to fall back, which is the most catastrophic scenario that civilization has to offer, discretionary goods will generally go through a wicked whipsaw effect. They’ll jack-up real hard nominally speaking — which will still be a big decrease in real costs/terms — but less hard than essentials, and then they’ll
suddenly drop to zero.
When someone offers you a kg of gold for a can of tuna .. and you reject it … that’s hyper hyper hyper inflation … and then they beat you to death with the gold bar… and take the tuna… that’s Mad Max
Perhaps even more importantly, lots of empty shelves for both basic essentials and non-essentials.
yeah, I’ll take a ticket for the ultra low deflation odds too, and with a side kick of de-dollarisation
what can’t be repaid won’t be repaid = default
@reante I’m curious about that paywalled dude you mentioned (I gave up ZH three years ago altogether after a decade plus. It just turned mobile and click harvesting), Michael Every
any open sources you know where he presents any possible rationalisations for dollarisation, pls?
moss
I’m not the slightest but internet savvy so the only thing I could suggest is searching through the ZH archives if they’re still available.
Every just gets that globalization under the petrodollar system is a fatal interconnectedness for everyone. That it can’t be unwound without catastrophic consequences for everyone because unwinding it means making existing in the world much more expensive when existing is already too expensive. That’s not a rationalization for dollarization per se (I know you know that already), it’s just a rationalization for a terminal flight to safety to the dollar as the least worst option during a crisis, because dollars buy you FF. Nicole Foss imo is the godmother of making the case for the hostage crisis forced flight to safety. That her work is 10-15 years old makes little difference.
This hard decoupling of Russia IS that little difference. It does appear that Round 2 of the non-public Degrowth Agenda that is the Ukraine contretemps is serving not just manufactured demand destruction to stay ahead of energy collapse but is also serving to somewhat distribute the coming global flight to safety away from the unilateral dependency on the dollar. Distributing the flight to safety into two spheres — mostly dollars and minorly commodity-based rubles — is going to hugely help to keep middle-income nuclear countries from falling into catastrophic collapse because the West is going to hoover-up most of the dollars. The eastward overtures by the Saudis are imo just for setting up eastward-facing redundant facilities (redundancies) for the non-public management of oil distribution during the global market flight to safety.
If they’re going to keep things together enough during the financial markets’ collapse, it obviously has to be by non-market mechanisms. And it’s those mechanisms that will form the foundation of the planned restructuring of distribution under the public guise of national socialisms. That’s the logic of the HTOE, which has been underway for years now if we read between the lines. How is it possible that Chevron is running Venezuelan production if the political theater were to be taken at face value? It’s not possible. How is it that China is operating Iraqi fields when its supposed enemy the US recently conquered it? How is it that the UK is still receiving Russian oil? More to the point, how is it that Russia is still selling at a discount to India so that India can play the arbitrage game and upsell Russian oil to the UK when the UK is covertly bombing Russia? None of this is real human behavior reflecting the nationalistic sentiments of nation state advertising. Doesn’t add up. And that’s a good thing, obviously. If no one was driving the bus then the chances of nuclear powered extinction level events are much higher.
Sorry went off on a tangent there.
thanks for your thoughts.
I’m following you some of the way … the Petrodollar system in my view is going to be fatal to some, but not all by any means and hopefully fatalities do not include the entirity of the”West”.
The flight to safety process you describe has been observable for many years in the JPY, and this fx rate may prove spectacular if there’s a big dewind in the carry trade.
In the ambit of my online hunter-gatherer reading there appears a curious and ongoing lacunae with respect to the deleveraging of our ginormous global credit bubble. The concatenation of libilities, Paul borrows from Peter to lend to Judas for riotous spree. As it happened 2008, I believed the world’s financial architecture had frozen and all the king’s horses and all the king’s men amounted to what? a couple of trill.
What’s the PIVOT going to take this time and will it be digestible?
The ongoing crypto currency collapse of the past year has wrought a couple of trill asset valuation plunge, thankfully fenced off largely as there is still relatively limited use of crypto assets as collateral in the so called real currency world. However, the OTC derivatives’ markets are another story altogether upon which the stockmarket provides daily judgement, through share prices. cough cough Credit Suisse. sorry Pozsar
It’d seem to me that in an ultimate “flight” there could be quite a shuffle of parties that could surprise. Other, we don’t know; my ouija board battery needs recharging.
I suspect it may be nasty, brutish and short, as an anodyne for which Cicero and Plato are indispensible in their measure of the imaginative potential of reversion to the mean
Have the Arabs forgiven us yet for what happened to the Bagdhad Museum
pls, pre enlighten the ignorant, what’s HTOE? Historic trend of energy? I can’t find it anywhere online but you’re right that nothing much has logic anymore and as for finding literal meaning in this simulacrum …
OT – Like Nicole, also a fan here of Bill Mollison and agree with you deeply on the acculturation of microbes in gardens. My number one practice is continuous soil improvement of which they are a very significant part
I wish the doomies the best of luck https://t.me/leaklive/11527
I’m really a person of another era. There is no bad thing like women fighting one another.
Remember Kipling’s poem; when the Afghan women come out with their knives, ‘blow out your brains, and go to your God like a soldier’?
The Romans, Saxons and Vikings found the Celtic women were even fiercer than the men and bore a grudge forever, doing anything to destroy an enemy.
And fitghing in that terrible way. Many women against one! What is the country?
The telegram subtext says Netherlands.
It’s every country every person should UEP fail… except the loser gets eaten
I grew up in a school like that. That’s natural law under extreme confinement. It would be more concerning if that didn’t happen anymore.
Check this out https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/62449 Blank… and people still agree to shoot the Rat Juice DUH.
BTW – I asked a pharmacist the same question last year — she refused to let me look — which of course resulted in a confrontation … she got quite upset and rattled… but still refused.
Is it completely blank or does it have a QR code where you can get the latest revision of the insert? I’ve seen some of these videos and there was a QR code and I wish I knew what the URL was so I could go see.
I know how they will cull 6B!
They will continue to drop stuff like this and their brains will explode https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/62446
One of the comments on that thread mentions that the Scwlob wants only un-Injected pilots; be an interesting point to be able to confirm.
Would tend to indicate most at Devilo’s are un-Injected with the Dog Sh*t
Pingback: The Media Balance Newsletter: 16/1/23 - Australian Climate Sceptics blog
Price cuts are hurting resale value of the Teslas as well. People who just bought at the higher price are very unhappy.
We’ve got this airplane — but we have only partially tested it to see if it will fly… anyone wanna buy a beta version?
Well if Elon designed it ya I’ll take 5 of them!
LOL!
Count Lev Tolstoy wrote tbe famous story “How much land a man needs?”
As everyone knows, the peasant who wanted to have a large plot of land collapses and dies in the end.
However, if you read the story carefully, the deed that if he made it to the starting point he would indeed be entitled to the land was signed. Since he fulfilled his end of the contract, the land now belongs to his heirs, since he did ask his servant to carry the deed and alert his family members.
The peasant did win.
Don’t bring me the bs by Jesus, who never owned a piece of land in his entire life, “What good does it do if a man gains the world and loses his life”?
The man Jesus was talking about is Alexander the Great, and anyone who has ever studied World History will know him . For ever, past the oil age or not. Jesus’ name could be forgotten but Alexander’s name will be immortal.
Tolstoy, who lost most of his vast inheritance because of his debauchery when he was young, had a HUGE contempt over those who came from the bottom. He led Chekhov, a serf’s son, to death by taking the tubercular author to a trip to Siberia, and he wrote a bunch of bullshit stories to tell the peasants to have no greed and just accept whatever lot which was given to them.
A descendant of Tolstoy is now the spokesperson for Putin. Tolstoy wasn’t there when the Kulaks were shot, but his descendants, who were allowed to keep his estate for his literary contribution (which was only briefly interrupted by a visti from Heinz Guderian in mid 1941), would have been smiling when these reset of upstarts was being taken.
Wasn’t Tolstoy the godfather of christian anarchism? He had some correspondence with Gandhi in which the two men expressed anti-civilization sentiments. Was this when he was old?
Chekov visited the island of Sakhalin in 1890 and only met Tolstoy in person in 1895, but don’t let facts get in the way of your fantasies.
I met Tolstoy’s great grand daughter in Bali — she was staying at the hotel of a Japanese friend and we ran into them at a new year’s party… not a bad looker – I recall her show casing her rack… bra-less…
Braless wow! I suspect her prude great grand father would call her a degenerate!
Alexander the Great Terrrorist.
truly one of history’s greatest mass terrrorists.
Kill one person and you’re a murderer. Kill millions and you’re a great historical figure. Strange.
Kulm,
Chehov (by the way a physician by education) did go to Sahkalin to see and study about the giliakis (yupi) in 1890. And surprise, surprise Tolstoy wasn’t his companion. By the way I highly recommend you to read his writtings on the giliakis. You can even read the critic from Haruki Murakami. Fascinating stuff.
From all Chehov’s writtings regarding the giliakis one particular entry stands out. He fortells how his expedition party was plowing the high snow and making a nice sled track for the party to advance and how the giliakis escorting them weren’t even thinking of taking the cleared path but instead continued to parce the high snow with feet, hands and claws. And when Chehov’s party asked them to use the cleared track so that they do not get so tired they looked them as madmen.
From all things Chehov I have read this partiular diary entry has imprinted in my brain. My conclusion is that although the giliakis tribes have taken over the world and most of the people you see are in fact giliakis parsing the high snow on the limes of the snow track.
My advise to your highness is to check if you are not indeed in snow up to your neck.
“SHOW ME THE MONEY” – Jerry McGuire
Musk Says ZeroHedge Did “Nothing Warranting Suspension” After ‘Twitter Files’ Expose Big Pharma Bullying
First, that lobbyists for the pharmaceutical industry launched a ‘massive lobbying blitz to crush any effort to share patents/IP for new covid-related medicine,” according to The Intercept’s Lee Fang. As part of this effort, lobbying group BIO “wrote to the newly elected Biden admin, demanding the U.S. gov sanction any country attempting to violate patent rights and create generic low cost covid medicine or vaccines.”
Of note, Pfizer and BioNTech raked in $37 billion in revenue in 2021 alone from the COVID-19 vaccine, while Moderna made $17.7 billion the same year (and has recently announced a plan to hike the price of the Covid-19 vaccine by approximately 400%).
BioNTech, which developed the Pfizer vaccine, “reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines.”
5. That brings us to Twitter. The global lobbying blitz includes direct pressure on social media. BioNTech, which developed Pfizer’s vaccine, reached out to Twitter to request that Twitter directly censor users tweeting at them to ask for generic low cost vaccines. pic.twitter.com/6cVIRcUDZV
— Lee Fang (@lhfang) January 16, 2023
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/big-pharma-bullied-twitter-censor-cheap-vaccine-demands-zerohedge-articles
More rewards in PR than actual research on drugs.
More inane rubbish from Steve
stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-cdc-could-end-all-the-covid-misinformation/
Fast Eddy again asks why he doesn’t hire a PR firm to find out what happened to Tiffany Dover? Seems the obvious thing to do if you want to end the misinformation.
I’ve posted that with Igor as well… I know Igor reads the responses.
What is real what is fake? Does SS exist for the purpose of corralling the anti vaxxers into a place where they can be monitored and moan and bitch and never take any real action?
Is Steve part of that?
I’ve also suggested he hire social media experts to pound the f789 out of mainstream accounts dropping accusations of vax injuries whenever someone goes down…
If you were really concerned about ending this — and you had lots of $$$ — and nobody ever agrees to debate you for $$$$ — maybe you’d try something else?
But nope — they keep on going round and round on SS preaching to the converted… wasting everyone’s time
Anyhow – can someone explain this:
https://youtu.be/yPUXr3TaVSA
Steve Kirsch asks why the CDC doesn’t do a couple of studies to see what exactly the vaccines are doing:
They are probably being paid off by Big Pharma so I seriously doubt the CDC will go looking for answers. Musk has exposed the Big Pharma coverup and it boils down to Pfizer raking in 37 billion and Moderna raking in close to $18 billion. Moderna plans to increase the price of their Covid vaccine by 400%.
And with ZERO liability, what a business model.
Everyone does… what the DOD tells them to do — otherwise… they sent the black operators in … and fix it
+++++
I am thinking Steve is either Mentally Re tar Ded — or he is playing a role appearing to lead the fight against the PR Team and CovCON.
We all know why the CDC doesn’t do what he is asking.
We all know why nobody will debate him.
Yet he keeps on keeping on … bit odd no?
I am sure he is aware of the definition of insanity … he is not insane so why does he keep doing the same failed things over and over?
The same could be suggested for the MHRA here: order autopsies, and take the patient lists of GP’s selected from different regions of the UK and do an active study of their individual health outcomes 2019-22.
Or create a side-effect reporting app like V-Safe in the US, and publish the results.
We know this will never happen.
“Does SS exist for the purpose of corralling the anti vaxxers into a place where they can be monitored and moan and bitch and never take any real action?”
Yes.
There’s no other reason why this silicon valley san francisco based platform chose to be the “free speech” version of Medium when all these companies are under the thumb of Big Tech, WHO, CDC, .gov propaganda.
Bitchute popped up in the UK at the same time to corral people into another “truther” bubble of the alt-media / Qanon variety.
Telegram was shifted out from under Putin’s Russia to the middle east to give it free speech street cred. Worked like a charm.
Tik tok distributed worldwide to capture the young’uns under a new dumb dumb spell.
ChatGPT is exploding right now to captivate nerds and non-nerds alike in a new bubble. (Microsoft/Israeli control).
https://chat.openai.com/auth/login
You guys are spoiling all the fun! Just think a uncle sammy col special recipe top secret formula produced under the same quality control as bathtub gin condensed in lead piping. And you get to inject it into your body!
Like my one friend said. “I want what Trump gets”. Not because he likes trump but trump is rich and the pres so he gets the best!. The injection is like a two grand I-phone.
The FDA and CDC are totally bogus. “our monitoring has noticed a small increased risk of stroke in those over 65”.
In the meantime something as simple as doing a before and after heart evaluation is ignored. No follow up on the Thai study indicating 30% heart damage. Excess mortality greater than the Vietnam war from six sigma perspective. Athletes dropping like flies.
No one knows what this substance is. Look at a normal pharmaceutical product insert. See the molecule identified. Once that molecule is identified you can institute quality control that that molecule is what the manufacturing process is making. Thats all abandoned with the OTA manufacturing process. If before after heart studies were done it might raise difficult questions. If this product is so high tech how come the most rudimentary safety protocols didnt catch it before we injected it into four billion people? Is the substance inherently dangerous or the bathtub gin manufacturing process? Well we would have to know what the substance actually is to start to answer that wouldn’t we? Which is why so much effort is spent on just that part with a pharmaceutical product but not with a DOD contract substance. Identifying the substance is the start. These DOD contract substances dont always turn out to be so way cool in the end ala agent orange. In the meantime it appears to some extent we are still riding the heady wave of being allowed to participate in the genetic experiment. Dont kill my buzz dude. The MRNA gene editing doohickys are the start of a new era! Its like riding along with louis and Clarke!
You can imagine that partner in bed is anyone you want. Just dont turn on the light.
Senator Ron Johnson speaks to the issue. Those who have gotten the injections dont want have the light turned on and see who they are in bed with.
If things were to change tomorrow it would be a long time before they really got to know what they are in bed with. That 15 years of work always done before now would get to be done after.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/mqXBdk7q3VzL/
Even of it were to be proved that Tiffany, the nurse guinea pig, did in fact pass away on or soon after that fatal Day of Injection, it would merely be said it was just another unfortunate but ‘ very rare’ death, and, hey, we ‘saved millions and millions’…..
The PR Team is the best on the planet so no doubt would make a valiant effort to explain it away.
However they have insisted she is alive…. this would definitely test their abilities…
The problem would be having absolute proof — you’d need someone close to confirm she is dead. Although if you could someone demonstrate (paparazzi photos and videos) showing the children being taken care of by a nanny or someone other than the mother that might work.
The PR Team always has the option of extreme force … anyone who dared to speak out could be threatened …
Remember — they are already murdering and maiming babies — they would not hesitate to take the children of a whistle blower and cut pieces of them off to silence the parent.
They have the Big Picture in mind – they do NOT want the Gates of Hell to open … preventing that end game justifies any act – no matter how heinous. Throwing a million children into an oven is something they would do – if it stopped ROF.
A million suffering is better than 8B ripping each other to pieces
But anyhow — it would sure be entertaining if someone would hire a PI!
Bit of Shad here… not as good as a Celeb Vax Injury … but still
Owner Jack Bradham, who purchased a black Model Y long-range edition in December, is irked that the vehicle got a $12,000 discount right after he purchased it. He said customer service from Tesla has been non-existent: “There’s no one to contact. I called and tweeted to them, no response.”
The price drops are hitting the resale value of Teslas also. Austin Flack, another owner, tried to list his 2018 Model 3 with the Full Self-Driving Beta software package for $51,000 last month. He has since reduced the price to $36,000 and fears he’ll have to try and cut it to $30,000.
As the report notes, the base price of the Model Y is down an astonishing 20% to start the year, with the vehicle now listed at $53,000. The Model S plaid is down 14%.
The situation in the U.S. echoes that of China, where customers stormed showrooms to protest price cuts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/i-would-not-buy-tesla-again-us-tesla-owners-fume-about-recent-price-cuts
At least you don’t die if you buy a Tesla
You might die and be cremated on short order if your Tesla explodes while you are inside it. The driver of this one was lucky enough to get out in time.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&sxsrf=AJOqlzUBAZ2CThYV9Tq9mftxXu1rtPucbw:1673947878718&q=Tesla+blows+up+on+highway&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjixrvlpc78AhWPd94KHd3XB8cQ1QJ6BAgoEAE&biw=1170&bih=770&dpr=2#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:54698eb9,vid:t2adVW6bTkQ
Xavier
F. . King: FARMERS OF FORTY CENTURIES: or, permanent agriculture in China, Korea and Japan, 1911.
===
That book is basically a travelogue of Dr. King to japan, China and the Japanese-ruled region of Chosen (There was no “Korea” in 1911). Not a serious study.
Apparently Dr. King was not aware of the periodic famines of China, Japan and Chosen in the forty centuries before his one and only trip to these regions.
Only “sort of” permanent agriculture in China.
The only and single example of “ permanent agriculture” I am aware of ( I am a certified permaculture instructor if that matters) are on a few small pacific islands that practiced intensive pond taro culture and palm silviculture.
They also kicked excess population out into open ocean to fend for themselves
So there is that…..
It always comes back to potatos. Learn to love your root crops.
TWO RESEARCH TEAMS REVERSE SIGNS OF AGING IN MICE
But doubts remain about whether cell reprogramming technique could one day help humans
13 JAN 20232:45 PMBYCATHERINE OFFORD
A control mouse at 16 months of age and one that had its epigenome disrupted at 5 months of age
To test a theory of why animals get old, a team has induced DNA breaks in mice and seemingly accelerated their aging—both rodents pictured are about 16 months old, middle-aged for the species, but the right one had its DNA broken at 5 months old.D. SINCLAIR/HMS
A decade after Kyoto University biologist Shinya Yamanaka won a share of a Nobel Prize for discovering a cocktail of proteins that reprogram adult cells into versatile stem cells, two teams argue the proteins can turn back the clock for entire organisms—perhaps one day humans. One group at a biotech used gene therapy to deliver some of the so-called Yamanaka factors into old mice, and modestly extended their life span. And a separate team followed a similar strategy to reverse aging-like changes in genetically engineered mice.
In both cases, the Yamanaka factors appear to have restored part of the animals’ epigenome, chemical modifications on DNA and proteins that help regulate gene activity, to a more youthful state. But scientists not involved in the work say suggestions of age reversal are premature. “These studies use reprogramming factors to reverse epigenetic changes that happen during aging,” says Matt Kaeberlein, a geroscientist at the University of Washington, Seattle, but that’s a far cry from making an old animal young again.
Several groups had already found genetically engineered mice that begin expressing Yamanaka factors in adulthood show reversal of certain aging symptoms. To explore an approach that might lead to a more practical treatment for people, San Diego–based company Rejuvenate Bio injected elderly (124-week-old) mice with adeno-associated viruses (AAVs) carrying genes for three of the factors, collectively known as OSK.
These animals lived another 18 weeks on average, compared with 9 weeks for a control group, the company reported in a preprint on bioRxiv this month. They also partially regained patterns of DNA methylation—a type of epigenetic mark—typical of younger animals. Although some studies have suggested Yamanaka factors can promote cancer, Noah Davidsohn, Rejuvenate’s chief scientific officer and co-founder, says the company has so far found no obvious negative effects in mice given the gene therapy.
“I would say it is provocative—possibly a breakthrough,” says Steven Austad of the University of Alabama, Birmingham, who studies the biology of aging. “But it will need to be replicated and the mechanism explored before we can say for sure.”
The second study, published yesterday in Cell, is from a team led by Harvard Medical School geneticist David Sinclair, who has backed several controversial “antiaging” interventions over the past 2 decades. (Rejuvenate’s approach grew from an earlier collaboration between Sinclair and Davidsohn, but Sinclair isn’t involved in the company’s research, Davidsohn says.) Sinclair’s team set out to test his “information theory of aging,” which posits that our bodies get old because of the cumulative loss of epigenetic marks. Cells’ DNA repair mechanisms, operating throughout a lifetime to fix DNA cuts and other damage, are what degrade these marks, he argues
https://www.science.org/content/article/two-research-teams-reverse-signs-aging-mice
Dr. John Campbell Describes How the COVID Narrative Shattered His Trust in Government
“I’ve gone from a position where you think our leaders have our best interest in heart to now wondering, really, where the heck some of these decisions are coming from.”
H/T: https://twitter.com/Demo2020cracy/status/1615037873761452032?s=20&t=lKJtCpwxByJIr28NwwDumg
Yes the end is coming soon … but it won’t be what Ed thinks… no Nuremburg 2.0
Narrative Collapsing, Unexplained Deaths: A Shift in the Story Is Coming Soon – Ed Dowd
“One of my sources in the government told me that … the White House is potentially preparing to declare an epidemic of sudden death and that they might blame long COVID and potentially, believe it or not, climate change.”
Full Video: https://rumble.com/v255tgf-ed-dowd-narrative-shift-to-epidemic-of-sudden-death-caused-by-climate-chang.html
The only thing historically that has lowered carbon emissions: Genocide.
America colonization ‘cooled Earth’s climate’
“Colonization of the Americas at the end of the 15th Century killed so many people, it disturbed Earth’s climate.”
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-47063973
its amusing … we are obviously being exterminated (cuz no they are not deploying leaky vaccines to encourage mutations so they can sell more vaccines) yet most are unwilling to accept that…
something to do with not wanting the truth
Both of these videos are good (and short). John Campbell talks about how disillusioned he had become once he realized that the powers that be have not changed the narrative about the vaccines, even as the adverse outcomes of the vaccines have become more apparent and the benefit much less than initially claimed. The risk-benefit has changed, but no one will change their story.
Ed Dowd in the second video talks about how terribly the claims experience of life and health insurers is working out. The number of people disabled is way up, and this seems to be affecting the working population more than the non-working population. Also, there are also a lot of young people dying. Government employees need to come up with an explanation for the awful outcome. Ed Dowd thinks government officials will blame it on either long covid or on climate change.
That’s a Q-level rabbit hole right there, Eddy. ‘Dave Chappelle’s’ SNL monologue normalizing garden variety antisemitism the other month was too apropos to the coming national socialisms to seemingly be a coincidence, and this dude is making a case for him being an imposter to replace the real Dave who got assassinated. Well, we know bob Marley got assassinated. We know Tupac got assassinated, both for political reasons. Dave falls in that exact same category — a field negro who don’t give a f789 that young white men love to bits. But the ironic thing is, that the SNL monologue is exactly the type of monologue the real Dave would perform. Again, timing is everything. If MLK was around right now he wouldn’t need to be assassinated. Those other guys neither. The elites implement sea changes by stealing/coopting the ideas of dissidents they done killed years ago. The smart way to cheat.
This was meant to be under Eddy’s Simon Cowell comment sorry.
It may have been deleted. That would result in your comment starting a new thread. It’s happened to me a few times.
I thought my mind was playing tricks on me. Thanks Mike.
https://wmcresearch.substack.com/p/an-urgent-warning-reactive-systemic
Fauci’s Law – whatever can go wrong will go wrong if you inject Rat Juice
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F8281156b-fb92-4a21-99c9-cc6d9ddc7104_794x424.png
The author starts with this:
So far, this is just a working hypothesis. He will write more sub stack articles about it.
If true – #1 thing to do is lose weight.
https://academic.oup.com/jcem/article/90/4/2244/2836869
Good point! Why the overweight are at risk of bad reactions.
A second paper confirms the mRNA shots cause recipients to make less effective antibodies to the coronavirus over time
No one knows yet what the long-term effects of this change may be, but – spoiler alert – they probably aren’t good. Also: what did Pfizer know and when did the company know it?
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/a-second-paper-confirms-the-mrna
Was speaking to some people involved in the hockey community in QT… the women’s and men’s under 20 teams are off to overseas tournaments shortly … the woman’s team has been decimated by the latest wave of Covid and are uncertain if they can send a team….
Also hearing loads of people are missing work due to being infected by Covid…
VAIDS!
Also the mother of one of the players who was a huge Rat Juice fan… now has heat problems after her latest booster (4) … is acknowledging it’s the Rat Juice… and feeling shame for previously criticizing those who rejected the Rat Juice.
Hearing now many stories of “heat problems” with younger vacinees including today.. the Dad expressing doubt about getting next booster has long Covid and his daughter a young women with irregular heartbeart after injection works at nursing home causing fear among other nurses with several other colleagues suffering same reaction. Alot of people have the deep cough and chest tightness weeks after Covid. I assume this is a common story as booster doses increase. My Mom is fairing well with 3 doses other than vertigo on Vit D 5000iu. I had heat palpitations all last winter thru March 2022 living in same house with her during part of go juice regime.
Talks about another academic paper (edited by a Senior Scientist at Pfizer) saying that those vaccinated with multiple doses of mRNA vaccines tend to produce relatively more IgG4 antibodies (which really don’t defend a person against catching the illness again).
Doomies:
Catholic Priest Burned Alive In Nigeria – https://breaking911.com/catholic-priest-burned-alive-in-nigeria/
Rev. Isaac Achi, a Nigerian priest, was burned alive in his home in Niger state on Sunday, local officials said. Police said that gunmen failed to break into his home and instead set it on fire.
Oh right fire… if you shoot at the bad guys … then hide in your house…. do ya think they might burn you out??? hahahahahahahhahaha
Hiding in your house is safe and effective. This was a rare side effect.
🙂 A gem thanks!
Hey remember Boy in the Bubble … they did that so he didn’t catch any diseases including viral illnesses. Cuz his immune system was non operational.
Hmmmmm…..
use only bricks, concrete, ceramic, and metal. no wood whatsoever. any decent prepper should know this.
There is an extreme fire ban on right now in our part of NZ…. it’s the same for many places during summer.
And there would be no helicopters to dump water on the fires….
This demonstrates the utter stoooopidity of GW fan boys… total f789ing MORE-ONS
https://t.me/downtherabbitholewegofolks/62417
‘Both decided to travel by jet instead of train.’…from Germany to Devilos’
The Davos loves Gulfstream.
How much more proof does anyone need?
Australia reports 1770 recent VACCINATED hospitalizations—
ZERO hospitalized unvaxxed!
🚨810 hospitalized have had 4/+ boosters
🚨140 vaccinated are in intensive care, of which 58 have had 4/+boosters
🚨of 95 deaths, 53 had 4/+ boosters
https://twitter.com/NewDayForNJ/status/1612164205687504902?s=20&t=dwifMl7T48A5s387b7mpag
I would check the coding. Is there a large “unknown” category for vaccination status? What does it have for number hospitalized? ICU? Deaths?
Often the problem is one of categorization. Hospital officials may not know vaccination status for many patients.
The unvaxxed don’t have VAIDS… therefore the data is correct
The UK currently reported its largest excess death levels outside of the pandemic since 1951. Did you hear about it? Probably not. The media is silent about it. The very few articles they write about it blame it on the ‘healthcare crisis’. They almost always deny the obvious. It absolutely could not be the vax! It’s like a cult.
https://drpanda.substack.com/p/50000-excess-deaths-in-the-uk
If millions did not die when there was no vaccine for Covid — and that initial version of covid was supposedly more deadly than any of the mutations that followed… then how is it that the claim that the vaccine has saved millions of lives true?
These higher deaths aren’t coming through yet in Our World in Data reports.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline-by-age?country=GBR~ITA
Maybe in a few weeks they will appear in these report. There was an earlier report about more deaths in the UK, too.
Let’s start the day with … some excellent Shad!
American Idol star CJ Harris (31) has died of a heart attack
https://www.msn.com/en-us/music/news/american-idol-star-cj-harris-dead-at-31-of-apparent-heart-attack/ar-AA16p7ng
Celebrities have always died of of one thing or another. Elvis died at 42! Drugs’ll do that.
Yes, it is true.
At the same time I think that the mix ‘drug & clot’ or ‘drug & myocarditis’ help to increase the probability.
Sh*t loads of young people dying lately from heart attacks, strokes, cancer.
Dying from coincidence. What is so baffling?
Yes, it’s all a coincidence. So get vaxxed and keep getting boosted. It’s 100% safe and effective.
Lets not forget, its good to get Injected to make things easier and generally, just get along…
That would be … mike roberts — 2021….
Congratulations to mike for the quote of the year
Stab me oh doctor with thy lance,
my health ‘twil not have a chance,
thou told me to eat carbs,
now it’s rat juice through some barbs,
you have your wall-hung degree,
on that I would like to pee,
because you know nothing about health,
your living is made through stealth,
one day the people will see,
and baseball bats to your head dead you will be …
Hypocrisy at its finest. Where’s Greta so she can yell at them, you are stealing my future? This is a classic case of virtue signaling. Like Al Gore telling everyone to use less while spending thousands a month on his electric bill.
“”Distasteful Masterclass In Hypocrisy”: Elites Swarm Davos In Private Jets To Discuss Climate Crisis”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/distasteful-masterclass-hypocrisy-elites-swarm-davos-private-jets-discuss-climate
Yes, and the “protesters” surely arrived in Davos by car or bus. Same hypocrisy, different expression.
It’s a lost cause. A failed species.
Tryhards gonna tryhard.
MOARons gonna moar.
It’s the rapacious primates sexual dimorphism mired in the monkey business of statuses, prestiges, copiums and hopiates.
Mental illness with other words.
🤣👍👍
They march around banging on pots and pans shouting benign slogans… and expect things to change
Oh and they put christmas lights on their tractors in Holland as if that was a big deal
hahaha stooopid f789ing dunc-es. MOREONS actually
Do they really believe that they should not be exterminated? Why?
USA is getting its soldiers all in a row in the Pacific for a war with China. UKR may be the ‘B movie’, and USA/proxies vs. China the ‘main feature’. The battle lines are already being put in place for the next war. The economic and geopolitical rise of China threatens USA geopolitical hegemony, and so USA wants to constrain that rise. It likely will try to use Taiwan to drag China into a war, much as it used UKR to drag Russia into a war.
Such a war would obviously be presented by the Western MSM as a moralistic, humanitarian, or ‘democratic’ defence of Taiwan or whatever, but really it would be all about an attempt to hinder the economic and geopolitical development of the world and to maintain USA power, dominance and advantages. The assumption is that the ‘plebs’ are gullible and that they will rally to their tribal ‘Big Chief’ or whatever. We are supposedly ‘thick and loyal’.
Primate ‘bias’ is ordered to primate wars. Chimps act in much the same way, tribal, territorial, aggressive, and given to wars over status, territories and resources. It is behaviour that humans have inherited from our common ancestor with the chimps over 13 million years ago. The behaviour is deeply bred in, and ‘religion’, ‘morality’, ‘higher thought’ are largely all just how our brains are ordered to the same underlying drives. We are plants and beasties at base, organic life in motion.
“What general Biermann is saying is that the United States is now straightforwardly preparing for war with China. I mean you can you can cut it and spin it in whatever way you like, but he says some really very, very alarming things – very revealing things. He says that the war in Ukraine has taken the course that it has, the reason it’s being prolonged, is because of the way in which the United States helped arm Ukraine, build it up, set up ammunition depots and fuel depots and fortifications and things of that kind – and he says that they’re now doing exactly the same thing in the Pacific. They’re working with countries like the Philippines but above all with Japan in order to try to build up a military coalition to take on the Chinese. And the way he talks about it is straightforwardly anticipating a future war between the United States and China.
“I have to say, I find that incredibly alarming. The Chinese who undoubtedly read the Financial Times, who do in fact read the Financial Times, are going to be extremely alarmed as well. Of course they will already know an awful lot about this from their own intelligence, and they will be working very hard to counter every one of these moves that are being made by General Biermann and the U.S and the US’s allies in this region. And it has to be said that the battlefields for the next war in the Pacific are being prepared because that’s what this article in the Financial Times is telling us.”
“We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bf5362de-60a6-4181-8c2a-56b50be61383
US military deepens ties with Japan and Philippines to prepare for China threat
Top Marine Corps general James Bierman outlines sweeping reform to adapt force for possible conflict over Taiwan
The US and Japanese armed forces are rapidly integrating their command structure and scaling up combined operations as Washington and its Asian allies prepare for a possible conflict with China such as a war over Taiwan, according to the top Marine Corps general in Japan.
The two militaries have “seen exponential increases . . . just over the last year” in their operations on the territory they would have to defend in case of a war, Lieutenant General James Bierman, commanding general of the Third Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) and of Marine Forces Japan, told the Financial Times in an interview.
Bierman said that the US and its allies in Asia were emulating the groundwork that had enabled western countries to support Ukraine’s resistance to Russia in preparing for scenarios such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
“Why have we achieved the level of success we’ve achieved in Ukraine? A big part of that has been because after Russian aggression in 2014 and 2015, we earnestly got after preparing for future conflict: training for the Ukrainians, pre-positioning of supplies, identification of sites from which we could operate support, sustain operations.
“We call that setting the theatre. And we are setting the theatre in Japan, in the Philippines, in other locations.”
Bierman’s unusually frank comparison between the Ukraine war and a potential conflict with China comes as Beijing has dramatically increased the scale and sophistication of its military manoeuvres near Taiwan in recent years. Japan and the Philippines are also intensifying defence co-operation with the US in the face of mounting Chinese assertiveness.
Japan and the US are set to discuss strengthening their alliance at security talks between the foreign and defence ministers on Wednesday and a summit between US president Joe Biden and Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida on Friday in Washington. The summit comes as Tokyo embarks on a radical security policy shift that will include increasing defence spending and deploying missiles capable of hitting Chinese territory.
III MEF is the Marine Corps’ only crisis response force permanently stationed outside the US. It operates within the range of Chinese medium- and long-range missiles, with which Beijing seeks to constrain US operational freedom in the region.
The unit is at the heart of a sweeping reform of the Marine Corps that aims to replace its focus on fighting counter-insurgency in the Middle East with creating small units that specialise in operating quickly and clandestinely in the islands and straits of east Asia and the western Pacific to counter Beijing’s “anti-access area denial” strategy.
To realise that strategy, closer integration with allies was vital, Bierman said. In a series of recent exercises, the Marines for the first time set up bilateral ground tactical co-ordination centres rather than exchanging liaisons with allies’ command points.
In another sign of deepening co-operation, specific Japanese military units have been designated as part of the “stand-in force” alongside III MEF and US Navy and Air Force units.
Instead of a “round robin” of Japanese military units working with US counterparts, as in the past, a “standing community of interest” is emerging of allied units with responsibility for operational plans, Bierman added.
He said while the US military was paying attention to Chinese aggressive behaviour around Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army should not be perceived as being “10 feet tall”.
“When you talk about the complexity, the size of some of the operations they would have to conduct, let’s say [in] an invasion of Taiwan, there will be indications and warnings, and there are specific aspects to that in terms of geography and time, which allow us to posture and be most prepared.”
As part of those preparations, the Philippines plan to allow US forces to preposition weapons and other supplies on five more bases in addition to five where the US has already access.
“You gain a leverage point, a base of operations, which allows you to have a tremendous head start in different operational plans. As we square off with the Chinese adversary, who is going to own the starting pistol and is going to have the ability potentially to initiate hostilities . . . we can identify decisive key terrain that must be held, secured, defended, leveraged.”
Thank you Mirror, very interesting.
Very interesting discussion between Alex and Alexander. The US wants a war with China over Taiwan (perhaps with Japan’s help). I think all of have been able to sense that this is coming. Without Taiwan’s semiconductor chips, the US would be in a terrible situation with respect to future high tech development.
The US cannot manage both a war in Ukraine and a war in the Far East. It would run out of weapons, if nothing else. Alexander believes that the US is likely to escalate the war against Russia, in order to secure some kind of “win.” before it takes on China. Just pulling out, as it did in Afghanistan, would make Europeans very unhappy.
I wonder if this war-mongering might also be a way of trying to hide world financial problems. Wars are a good way to justify more debt. They can justify governments adopting strange programs to support the war effort.
Ultimately, it is doubtful that the US could win a war against both Russia and China. In fact, even a truce with much less trading after the war would be a major loss for the West. It could be the start of much more regionalization.
“Ultimately, it is doubtful that the US could win a war against both Russia and China.”
I seriously doubt the US could even win against Russia. Has anyone ever beaten Russia? Let’s ask Napoleon? The US left Afghanistan with it’s tail between its legs, even leaving military equipment behind.
No, this is more about the World needing war as an excuse for the collapsing monetary system they have been using since Bretton Woods. I guess constantly borrowing from the future with NO intention of ever paying it back, wasn’t such a good idea.
They tried to use Covid and the lockdowns as an excuse. That didn’t work so it’s onto war now. As my favorite quote goes: “When all else fails they take you to war”.
I like the finger of blame. But you implicitly wanted it, didn’t you? Oh yea but you did, and when it turns to explicit warmongering it’s no longer fun for the rapacious primate, oh no it isn’t.
🤭👍
Who would make the shoes? Everything is made in China! It will be a financial war….
But then again I believed everyone on here that the Ukraine Russian war would be short with Russians winning..and Europe collapsed…financially…and frozen… all wrong. David and his BAU wins again!
What is new with the rapacious primate blowing up itself back into the Stone Age?
Don’t want it? Well; you first! There’s the oats and let’s turn the cranks.
Embrace the suck.
But you won’t, oh no, you’ve leveled up all those statuses and prestiges within the monkey business, haven’t you?
And within temptation is truth.
🤭👍👍
it seems to be bAU tonight, baby!
again!
Russia did win the war against Ukraine in early April. Since April the war is basically Russia vs USA/NATO. You can also see the clear change in operations in April, the rooskies change their strategy to something like a naval battle approach – destroy materrial (both human and weapons) and don’t fight for territory.
What kind of fighting force do they expect to mount (in your opinion) seeing as almost all of them have been jabbed and are operating under woke principles as opposed to principles befitting a serious fighting force?
I think that’s all a ruse to make the US appear to be weak. The narrative has been painting the BRICS as “invincible mighty warriors” and the American as fools. China is a paper tiger easy to take down and Russia’s aging military are being worn down as we speak. Then out comes the tech that America has been working on for the past fifty years. Checkmate. Endgame. Full Spectrum Dominance.
“Then out comes the tech that America has been working on for the past fifty years.”
Any first hand experience with this supposed tech? Or just speculation?
Sounds like someone has been watching too many films.
Skipped Showers, Paper Plates: An Arizona Suburb’s Water Is Cut Off
https://www.yahoo.com/news/skipped-showers-paper-plates-arizona-130945292.html
Last week, Arizona learned that its water shortages could be even worse than many residents realized. As one of her first actions after taking office, Gov. Katie Hobbs unsealed a report showing that the fast-growing West Valley of Phoenix does not have enough groundwater to support tens of thousands of homes planned for the area; their development is now in question.
Water experts say Rio Verde Foothills’ situation is unusually dire, but it offers a glimpse of the bitter fights and hard choices facing 40 million people across the West who rely on the Colorado River for the means to take showers, irrigate crops, or run data centers and fracking rigs.
“It’s a cautionary tale for homebuyers,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University. “We can’t just protect every single person who buys a parcel and builds a home. There isn’t enough money or water.
”
… said a number of other unincorporated areas in Arizona rely on water service from larger nearby cities like Prescott or Flagstaff. They could find themselves in Rio Verde’s straits if the drought persists and the cities start taking drastic conservation measures.
There are no sewers or water mains serving the Rio Verde Foothills, so for decades, homes there that did not have their own wells got water delivered by tanker trucks. (The homes that do have wells are not directly affected by the cutoff.)
The trucks would fill up with Scottsdale water at a pipe 15 minutes’ drive from the Rio Verde Foothills, and then deliver water directly to people’s front doors. Or rather, to 5,000-gallon storage tanks buried in their yards — enough water to last an average family about a month. When the tanks ran low, homeowners would call or send an electronic signal to the water haulers for another delivery.
It was a tenuous arrangement in the middle of the desert, but homeowners said the water always arrived, and had come to feel almost as reliable as a utility hookup.
Now, though, the water trucks can’t refill close by in Scottsdale, and are having to crisscross the Phoenix metro area in search of supplies, filling up in cities a two-hour round trip from Rio Verde. That has meant more driving, more waiting and more money. An average family’s water bill has jumped to $660 a month from $220, and it is unclear how long the water trucks will be able to keep drawing tens of thousands of gallons from those backup sources.
Heavier water users like Cody Reim, who moved into a starter house in Rio Verde two years ago, are being hit even harder. He said his water bills could now exceed $1,000 a month — more than his mortgage payment. Reim and his wife have four young children, which in normal times meant a lot of dishwashing, countless toilet flushes and dozens of laundry cycles to clean soiled cloth diapers.
Reim, who works for his family’s sheet-metal business, is planning to become his own water hauler, lashing large containers to his pickup and setting out to fill them up. He guesses that fetching water will take him 10 hours every week, but he said he would do anything to stay in Rio Verde. He loves the dark skies and the baying coyotes at night, and how his children can run up and down a dirt road that with views of the Four Peaks Wilderness.
“Even if this place went negative and I’d have to pay somebody to take it, I’d still be here,” he said of his house. “There’s no other option.”
..prevent unsustainable development in a desert state, Arizona passed a law in 1980 requiring subdivisions with six or more lots to show proof that they have a 100-year water supply.
But developers in Rio Verde Foothills have been sidestepping the rule by carving larger parcels into sections with four or five houses each, creating the impression of a miniature suburbia, but one that did not need to legally prove it had water.
“It’s a slipped-through-the-cracks community,” said Porter, with the Kyl Center for Water Policy
BAU Baby all or nothing…
> Reim and his wife have four young children
Sustainable. Double the population every generation ad infinitum.
It’s not a problem. Just load up the truck and drive hours hauling water. I wonder what will happen when he can’t buy fuel or replacement parts but I’m sure that’s inconceivable.
Not a big surprise.
Way too much population in the arid Southwestern US.
This demonstrates the burden of ‘intelligence’
The poor sad pathetic humans — they never stood a chance.
200,000 years and out.
Sales of new apartments fell significantly. The numbers are the worst since the crisis
Vacant new buildings are increasing on the Bratislava market.
https://index.sme.sk/c/23113325/analytici-predaj-novych-bytov-sa-vyrazne-prepadol.html
What was to be expected. Only the beginning.
China fights against the tidal wave https://nz.news.yahoo.com/china-bad-debt-firms-plan-095600517.html
The ocean can only be held back for so long.
The demons are pounding at the gates — the financial pressures continue to build … the hordes surely will start to suspect they’ve been Rat Juiced at some point…
The Bossche Mutation would solve both problems — white-knuckle time in the Elders HQ…. heaven help us if they fail.
8B vicious animals … will be let out of their cages (civilization) hungry ..angry… and desperate… they will do anything to try to survive… and I mean anything.
Mr DNA has never faced a situation like that. Mr DNA also goes by the name – The Devil.
https://giffiles.alphacoders.com/918/91853.gif
I can see that this would cause a problem for property developers, if they didn’t have problems before: ” New-home prices in 70 Chinese cities fell for a 16th month in December, official figures showed Monday.”
Chinese people have their savings in their own homes, and in extra homes they own. They will not be happy either.
I expect that fewer new apartments will be sold around the world, and that fewer new homes will be built. At some point, home prices seem likely to turn down, especially if there is a lot of unemployment and interest rates stay high.
I was told there is a deluge of homes being dumped into the market in Queenstown … a great many of the properties here are investments… as the higher mortgage rates kick in owners struggle to make the payments … so they unload.
I was told the not so long ago there were in the region of 70 homes for sale in QT … and that it’s well over 300….
Just checking a RE site — and closer to 400 https://www.realestate.co.nz/residential/sale/central-otago-lakes-district/queenstown
deflation
it is the same with used cars, deflation
If US unable to increase its oil production, China loses some market, deflation of assets producing stuff for US.
If China produces less stuff, less oil required? deflation?
Seems counter intuitive, hard to go against the experts touting inflation.
Similar to covid, n’est pas?
Dennis L.
(DW)
”German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht resigns”
We will see if that will mean more or less belligerence.
https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-minister-christine-lambrecht-resigns/a-64401401
According to ‘Zerohedge’ it will mean more belligerence
‘Perhaps more importantly she’s been seen as emblematic of Berlin’s hesitancy to step up defense aid to Ukraine, amid pressure from other NATO allies.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/german-defense-minister-resigns-criticism-over-ukraine-mounts
At least it will mean more intelligence. The puppet on strings they had chosen managed to breathe with zero.
Yes, but the last major German leader didn’t have the best temperament. But, the three B’s were pretty good.
Dennis L.
You can have cheap eggs and electric stoves or expensive eggs and gas stoves.
But you can’t have both!
Induction hobs are the best anyway.
Japan’s Experts Baffled By High ‘COVID Deaths’ Despite High Vaccination Rate
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/japans-experts-baffled-high-covid-deaths-despite-high-vaccination-rate
comment…
“Baffled” – there’s that word again…
Newsflash – you will never find what you refuse to look for.
Hey “doctors” – your silence is complicity in mass murder.
You and your vile criminal ilk will never be trusted by the public ever again.
Your professional reputations and your industry as a whole are now finished.
Good luck with that!
Couldn’t agree more.
Timing is everything. Like I said about major Russian escalation coming soon (nuclear?), there’s only a year til US presidential campaign season starting, so the next act has to be coming real soon here. Looks like about two weeks ago the intelligence outfit ZH got the green light to greenlight the antivaxx set change. Until then ZH was basically MIA.
Pingback: AWED NEWSLETTER: We cover COVID to Climate, as well as Energy to Elections. - Dr. Rich Swier
(Financial Times)
‘What the end of the US shale revolution would mean for the world’.
Can someone give some excerpts of the article? Thanks!
https://www.ft.com/content/60747b3b-e6ea-47c0-938d-af515816d0f1
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcontent%2F60747b3b-e6ea-47c0-938d-af515816d0f1
Wow! Thanks
I think that with article is very clear why Covid started, why the famous european plan ‘Next Generation EU is everything except than a recover of a pandemic,
why everybody now needs to believe in the new ‘green’ religion with Greta as the first priestess of a new era
and so on…
Our new religion, cooked up by a committee of bankers.
I feel that Greta is quite likely to remain an untouched Vestal Virgin.
Not sure, though, that it would be fitting for her to tend a flame that doesn’t go out….
Vestals had the authority to pardon capital punishment.
https://archive.ph/RRuTH
And this – it’s not too big to bail I guess
China Bad-Debt Firms Plan Property Support Up to $24 Billion
One excerpt from the article:
We in the United States sometimes miss the importance of this development, in the standing of the United States.
The article also mentions that future increases in shale production are likely to be small. Perhaps a 2% growth in production over the next 12 months (EIA), but perhaps not even that.
Gail,
As I recall, and being general, on this site there was some agreement that shale did not work, it was too expensive to produce, etc.
It is such a complicated system, untangling things is a challenge. It would be interesting to see where the actual financing of the shale revolution came from. Who wrote the checks?
It worked until it didn’t(doesn’t) which is pretty much the story of the universe, e.g. the sun, so far so good. Matter of timing.
Dennis
The problem is that shale needs a fairly high price to generate adequate cash flow. You can see that in the graph given on the Financial Times website. It has not been able to do this, except very recently when a lot of “drilled but uncompleted” wells have been completed.
Investors are fed up with a type of production that does not generate adequate cash flow, especially now that the sweet spots have already been extracted. Also, there are problems now with getting all of the materials needed, such as steel pipe, as well as trained workers. Costs are rising. The chart shows that cash flow is about to fall below investment again.
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times.
Preface. Conventional crude oil production may have already peaked in 2008 at 69.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) according to Europe’s International Energy Agency (IEA 2018 p45). The U.S. Energy Information Agency shows global peak crude oil production at a later date in 2018 at 82.9 mb/d (EIA 2020) because they included tight oil, oil sands, and deep-sea oil. Though it will take several years of lower oil production to be sure the peak occurred. Regardless, world production has been on a plateau since 2005.
What’s saved the world from oil decline was unconventional tight “fracked” oil, which accounted for 63% of total U.S. crude oil production in 2019 and 83% of global oil growth from 2009 to 2019. So it’s a big deal if we’ve reached the peak of fracked oil, because that is also the peak of both conventional and unconventional oil and the decline of all oil in the future.
Some key points from this Financial Times article: https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
If we assume that Gail’s (and other’s) work is correct, and that we can take it as an axiom and as a reality that there are not enough resources for further economical growth and that an economical decline will reduce our ability to harvest energy, which leads to a vicious circle, then there are just four possible consequences:
1. The human race becomes extinct.
2. Our descendants live as hunter-gatherers.
3. Our decendants live as farmers.
4. Our descendants live as gardeners, with intensive care, composting, no phosphate depletion and low scale technology, including forged iron knifes, googles, magnetism and compass, some electric instruments like Geiger counters or even x-rays and pressure sterilizers, perhaps penicillin production and deep-sea navigation in a sustainable society but including knowledge about technology at a low scale. That what can be produced using sustainably forest charcoal and local fossile resources like lignite. It is possible to produce glass for astronomy and optical and medical instruments without having large scale production for windows. That is probably not the case for semi-conductors.
The three later options allow different population sizes. The third allowed in the past sustainable gatherings up to 50.000 people in the Amazon basin, Indonesia, in China, Korea and Japan and Egypt and later in the Mediterraneum and Baltic sea.
Darwin gave us the conviction that our genetical equipment made us the crown of development, which is true in a way. Many people therefore believe we would not be subjected to the laws of sustainability, equilibrum and carrying capacity – because we could think of something new. As a consequence they believe BAU must go on forever. If we look to the leavings of historic cultures, Jared Diamond and Peter Turchin have shown that impressively, that is not the case.
An intensive use of gardening and low scale technology though would need knowledge about proceedures, and the circulation of knowledge, seeds and animals, which is hard to maintain after BAU.
I will give an example of what I mean:
People learn at school that they just need copperwire to make a coil and have magnetism and electricity – important to be able to detect our radioactive residues. These teachings are of no practical use as the coating of copperwire is made from petrochemicals. Copper will be available from reusing our remains (iron will rust away). But the coating is not. A solution could be shellac, produced by Kerria lacca – which is not widely available. What else would you use, gummi from Russian dandelion? You have Russian dandelion in your garden? Tree resin?
Kerria lacca undoubtely could grow on plants domestic to Europe and the USA. But are we having populations here? Same with silk production. It was transferred in the past to Europe but could not compete to Asian production. Though it would be worth to keep up a low scale production for example for surgical suture material. Small amounts like that could easily be produced and traded in a sustainable way – but not if contact between Asia, Europe and America breaks. Regional production is needed.
The alchemists knew that an element could be transmuted into another. Either this was passed on knowledge or it was intuition. Rutherford, who called himself being in the tradition of alchemy, prove 1300 years later that this information was right. People worked 1300 years to understand the information they got from the past!
We could spare our decendants a lot of confusion and work if we leave proper informations and instructions behind.
It makes a difference to say, BAU will end and the survivors will live as hunter-gatherers or if we kind of prepare the transition to a sustainable society with low scale technology.
For the later it would be needed to find a suitable way of conveying understandable and useful information to our descendants as Alexandria shows libraries are not so reliable.
It would be needed to identify crucial technology and actively find processes to maintain them under Bronzeage and regional conditions. Glass productions in Middle Europe historically needed other procedures than in South Europe due to non standardized materials, I have shown that in another comment. Perhaps it is possible to brew penicillin in a Bronzeage lab?
Our descendants live as gardeners, with intensive care, composting, no phosphate depletion and low scale technology, including forged iron knifes, googles, magnetism and compass, some electric instruments like Geiger counters or even x-rays and pressure sterilizers, perhaps penicillin production and deep-sea navigation in a sustainable society but including knowledge about technology at a low scale
You can’t extract food from the land every year and expect it to stay fertile without fossil fuel fertiliser. Can’t be done. There will be regular famines in the future just like there used to be.
Feeding a whole village is not like running a little hobby garden.
The solution to that is a small population, kept down by constant disease, low-scale warfare, infanticide and occasional famine, and large herds for the fertiliser. Minimal gardening, metals, little or no fruit-growing. Very simple housing and clothing (hence the need for sheep and cattle). Just as the Welsh used to live – see Gerald of Wales’s excellent 12thc account. A perfectly decent life.
This is a transition most unlikely ever to be made, of course.
Xabier I think you have it right. Also add fishing, planting nut trees for the long term, burning the forest/brush to encourage deer/bison(?). Yes, I will sit now at the fire and have a glass of port.
Jan wasn’t talking about extracting food from the land and expecting it to stay fertile. She was talking about biological gardening that builds and maintains fertility.
Feeding a whole village will only be accomplished by each village family feeding itself.
You can’t build and maintain fertility while you take crops from the land every year. Sooner or later the land is exhausted.
You can’t replace what you take out of the land with whatever organic fertilisers you can produce. It isnt enough. the fertility gradually declines.
This plus deforestation is what kills every civilisation.
You don’t know what you are talking about.
There must be some level say harvest once per seven years fallow the other six?
That might just about work, the problem is when you have a civilisation there’s too much pressure to continue producing food.
That is why a king is needed to enFORCE population limits.
Withnail
Since you believe in fallowing you might ask yourself what it is that happens during the fallowing and how what it is that happens during fallowing can be nurtured at all times such that fallowing is unnecessary. Hm? You ever think of that?
And all the manure producing farm animals will be eaten by the marauders.
Yes, you can! My greatgranddad did!
Read about Tera preta or read John Seymour or best read where it all started: F. . King: FARMERS OF FORTY CENTURIES: or, permanent agriculture in China, Korea and Japan, 1911.
This knowledge is our human inheritage. It is about phosphate depletion.
It isn’t going to work. If you’re putting that into the soil in one place, then another place isnt getting it. There isnt enough for your whole farm.
You don’t understand the biology of ecologies. You treat “it” — whatever that is — as a Xero sum game. Life is always growing. Taking vegetative matter from here to fertilize there doesn’t necessarily degrade this area here and in certain cases it promotes fertility here. Yes, taking can increase fertility. If you mow and bag perennial grasses before they go to seed you return those grasses to their vegetative state. Plants in their vegetative state (as opposed to their reproductive state) put over 50% of their photosynthetic energy into pumping sugars and starches into the soil in order to feed microbes so that the microbes have the energy to break down the mineral component of the soil into its mineral components including phosphate. So keeping grasses mowed (grazed) builds soil. That’s why regularly mowed grasses are higher fertility, healthier grasses, even when the grass is bagged, than once-mowed grasses, because their sitting in soil they’ve spent more time building while in their vegetative state.
“It” as you call it wouldn’t run out until biology had ‘eaten’ (dissolved with acids) through all of the Earth’s crust and replaced it with topsoil.
You’re just parroting overshoot propaganda. Natural bounty is what exists below carrying capacity, by definition.
AS we have used up all the high grade ores of metals near population centres, then all we will have is to mine the cities to get metals in the future.
Eventually, because of entropy and dissipation there will be no metals left, even if there is plenty of wood to make charcoal. At this point in the future, all farming will stop as we need metal implements to work the soil, dislodge the weeds etc, even in organic farming or gardening.
It’s then back to hunting and gathering for the human race as there will be no other options. Of course this assumes we leave enough large animals to be hunted while passing through the great bottleneck and decline of civilization at the end of the fossil fuel era, coming very soon.
Humans have already made multiple large species of mammals extinct by our hunting over the last few hundred thousand years, so it’s not impossible that all large mammals go extinct with 8B ravenous humans fighting over the last scraps of available food, (though possibly down to 4-5 billion when things get bad everywhere). If we hunt to extinction every large mammal species, then there is every chance homo sapiens also goes extinct during the next ice age..
Metals are not required for small scale gardening/farming. You can just compost in place and do everything else by hand or with natural tooling.
Digging with wood tools is not very efficient.
Biological gardening and farming seldom if ever digs or tills. I agree though we’re talking about a labor intensive mode of subsistence. If you ain’t in great shape you ain’t gonna make it. That’s one of the costs of life in permanent settlements without energy slaves, it’s highly labor intensive, with the cultivation of annuals much more so than perennials. That’s meritocracy under natural law – if you’re gonna reap the benefits of staying in one place you have to pay with it by taking laborious responsibility for it (paying for it) by artificially (but still biologically) managing (extracting) the ecology’s nutrient flows in order to focus them (import them) on your cultivars. It’s just miniature empire-building without the expansionistic requirement.
You might be able to do some low scale gardening, but not farming without metal tools. Farms have to have a huge surplus for non farmers to survive. Without farms with great surplus, it’s back to before civilization, as in hunting and gathering. My only hope is that humans have something other than rats and mice to hunt.
I have never been to an organic or permaculture farm that didn’t use metal tools, even basic ones, and as a person that use to be on a certifying committee for the top organic group, I’m calling BS on your claim that they don’t use tools..
A forest garden, once established, doesn’t need any special tools, though they can help. Of course, you wouldn’t find such places at the moment (after all, why not use at least simple tools, if they’re available and can help?) but it could be sustained in future.
Nah just an army to fend off the hordes
Hideaway
Home-scale subsistence farming is the context in which I’m speaking.
Mike
Exactly.
Ouch!
https://cdn.ilovefreesoftware.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/worlds_nuclear_power_plant_map-01.jpg
I need to add that to the Fast Eddy Challenge – you are not allowed to use anything made of metal.
JMG has written a great deal about mining opportunities in open pit mines with quaint names from the past such as Chicago and New York City. There will be plenty of metal/glass around for a long time.
How do you pump the water out of the mines?
Because of the way our bodies have adapted, we humans have to have cooked food. We also need heat, if we are going to live in cold parts of the world. For bronze age technologies, we will need trade and an abundant supply of metals of various kinds. Trying to keep soil fertile will be difficult, as one commenter says. Storing up food supply for adverse shifts in weather will be another issue.
If humans outcompete our competitors, our population will grow, producing more of the same problem we have had before. If humans don’t outcompete our competitors, we will die out. There is no steady state.
I believe that one of the intended reasons that we evolved a self-refexive metaconsciousness in the first place was so that we could evolve an intelligent cultural paradigm that could restrain our ‘opposable thumbed’ superdominance. That paradigm being a animism, which was an intentional, cultivated cultural practice based on pure Reason, which itself is the intelligent patterning of cause and effect in the local ecology. I believe this because I see that evolution itself is intelligent and not stupid. Animism is Replenish emerging from being in a bad way. Just as I emerge and just all have emerged or must yet emerge either in body or in spirit, in order to contribute constructively to the species.
Animism is the conservatism under natural law that keeps a lid on the superdominance by ‘institutiinalizing’ one thing and one thing only, and that is the steadfast refusal to exceed the local carrying capacity, because once the carrying capacity is exceeded, all the continuity of work of the past and future generations is put at risk. Animism is a sacred vow. You can garden it, you can pastoralize it, you can hunt and gather it, but it can only exist under Dunbar’s Number which is a living number.
I question if there can be a steady state. Adding in constant low level warfare with the neighbors can stop overshoot?
It probably takes more than constant low level warfare with neighbors. Killing off a few (or many) men doesn’t do much for total population. It is the women who are mothers. As long as the number of women rises, and food is adequate, population is likely to rise.
Warfare only happens when you and/or your neighbors are living beyond their carrying capacity and starting to encroach on previously agreed-to territorial rights. For the reason Gail states, infanticide (infant neglect) was almost always female infant neglect (commonly the infant would be strapped to the mother and father, out of love, and remain there until the child’s battery ran down in a few days. In high functioning animist societies, infant neglect was a way to avoid war; the best societies could foresee the approach to carrying capacity years ahead of time and institute preventative population measures in the form of partial reproductive prohibitions, because they had both abstinence and the very reliable rythmn method of birth control at their disposal. Breaking the prohibition may have meant neglecting the infant or leaving the society. Incidents of sanctioned infant neglect were great stains on the society — they symbolized collective failure at animism, symbolized both greed and the profound wasting of life — and this reinforced a recommitment to sustainability.
Ed you’re right there’s no such thing as steady state. Sustainable societies always ebb and flow as trailing indicators of food supply ebbs and flows. Dynamic equilibrium.
https://eddie11.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/hallelujah.jpg
Except in DelusiSTAN of course…
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Katherine Watts
Weaponization of Language and Law: US Government Bioterrorism Program from 1969 to Covid
https://bailiwicknews.substack.com/p/weaponization-of-language-and-law?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
Anecdotal experience with the injections
https://www.bitchute.com/video/eKbONNqppVMU/
From near the beginning of the sub stack article:
A war on the MOREONS… the Rat Juice is used to test for MOREONISM .. and kill those who fail.
https://mailsmartlogistics.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/bigstock-Stamp-Approved-With-Red-Text-O-62531090.jpg
It could be true but in a way this detracts somewhat from the importance of understandingthat the way the injections are manufactured and tested is radically diferent than a pharmaceutical product. GOVUSA may have been panicked and needed a way to create a “vaccine”.
When you read the contracts regarding the substance(s) manufacture they are refered to as “contermeasures”. At least on the surface the possibility exists that DOD panicked by the accidental release of one of its bioweapon programs instituted the manufacture of the injection substances in a manner by which standard safety protocals and product and process characterization and control were abandoned because the urgency of the bioweapon release demanded it.
These fine works we see appearing that help us understand the OTA process by which the injectable substances were manufactured. They assume that “countermeasure” always refers to a weapon used against a human enemy. Thus The injections would be a attack on humanity. If the virus/bioweapon is regarded as the enemy however the countermeasures are directed at it not the hosts however.
Intentions are always hard to judge. I think a good start of understanding this distribution of substances manufactured under the OTA operation warp speed is to differentiate from the narrative we are being told about what they are and what we know they actually are. IMO without actually knowing what the inject able substances are and quantifying whether the actually produce the spike protein all discussion of what they are and what they do is exactly that a narrative. Just because we have been bombarded by created images of the “blob from planet P” doesn’t mean that they exist. During a normal manufacturing process for a pharmaceutical product all of these things are quantified and it takes a lot of work. Asking many of the questions that arise around these OTA DOD substances would be silly with a product manufactured to pharmaceutical product regulations then you have a working hypothesis not a narrative.
Since all of that was abandoned with the OTA DOD contract manufacture of these substances all we are left with is one big question mark on a snake oil trailer lots of possible assumptions and no answers besides the effects we witness on those injected. This constitutes what is called a experiment. One big question mark. What we do also know is these substance classes are historically gene editing even if we do not know what exactly the substances are or if there was any degree of success in manufacturing commonly referred to as quality control whatever the intended substance was/is. IMO understanding the facts regarding these substances complete abrupt radical and unprecedented deregulation is more important than determining intent at this time.
The Duran guys were talking about Ukraine today and the baffling and deluded approach of the West.
Their conclusion was that the various Govt lackeys had forgotten that the reference data they’re using for their decision making is their own propaganda. In other words they’ve spouted such a long string of BS for so long they’ve forgotten that they made the shit up in the first place. Trapped in their own hall of mirrors.
For me COVID is looking much the same. I used think Yep has to be a depopulation plan, but increasingly there’s no sign of a coherent strategy. If it’s the DoD behind it what’s their plan? Can anyone explain what they’re trying to achieve?
They’ve killed perhaps 25-30m ish people, disabled 50M ish. In the scheme of things so what?
Unless 10x that number suddenly die, it’s a nothing burger. The world rolls on a bit more f–d up than it would otherwise have been maybe.
The next main event on the decline path looks to be food supply. I’m long cans of tuna.
Global Civil Unrest on the way, can’t wait. When people can’t eat, they tend to get a tad violent. 🥳
The Mainstream Media Admits That We Are Facing “The Worst Food Crisis In Modern History”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/the-mainstream-media-admits-that-we-are-facing-the-worst-food-crisis-in-modern-history/
See below posting from Da Mob; food crisis solved?
Gordon Ramsey, Jamie Oliver, step up with some recipes.
Soylent Green !
From Gangsta Boos ‘Where Da Dollas At?’ to ‘Where Da Donuts at?’ !
as much as I hate rap and gangsta anything I do like the name Gangsta Boo
The big issue the linked article talks about is food insecurity (and outright starvation) in Africa. The article says,
I’ll stand on the balcony and fling the un-popped kernels of popcorn at them
Temporary morgues are being opened across UK to deal with surge in deaths
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/uk-news/temporary-morgues-being-opened-across-25962140
Why do this when there are so many pigs willing to feast on human corpses?
It is hard to see a surge in deaths yet on the Our World in Data website.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline-by-age?country=GBR~ITA