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I have said in recent posts that the world economy is hitting resource limits of many kinds. These limits include oil, coal, and other sources of energy, including uranium, used as a fuel for nuclear power generation. Because of these limits, the world economy is being forced to shrink back. In my opinion, the direction it is headed in is toward smaller, mostly less-advanced, more independent, economies. This change is also likely to lead to various types of financial collapse for many of today’s Advanced Economies.
Per-capita consumption of these early used energy sources has shrunk since peaking in 2007.
Most of us remember the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009. With a declining supply of what used to be inexpensive energy resources, many economies have done poorly. Many of the wealthier countries have papered over their problems with an increasing amount of debt, but the limits to this added-debt approach are now being hit. It is the debt problem that leads to financial collapse.
In this post, I will elaborate on these ideas.
[1] Countries that are today’s Advanced Economies (members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)) are likely to fare poorly in this coming contraction.
The Advanced Economies include the US, most of Europe, Japan, Australia, and a few other countries. Their per-capita consumption of oil, coal and nuclear electricity resources has been shrinking significantly since about 2005. The year 2005 was approximately the peak of “conventional” oil supplies. More oil has become available since this date, but this oil is generally more expensive to extract.
[2] Energy consumption for the Other than Advanced Economies is hitting limits, too.
The Other than Advanced Economies were able to grow in their per-capita use of these three types of fuels between 2001 and about 2013, but since then, their per-capita quantity of these fuels has leveled off. The big impetus for growth was China joining the World Trade Organization in 2001. World demand for inexpensive finished goods empowered China to start extracting coal and other minerals in quantity. But coal mines deplete, just as oil fields deplete, leading to the flat per-capita availability of energy supply for the Other than Advanced Economies since about 2013.
[3] With these changing patterns for the two groups, one potential problem is conflict.
The Other than Advanced Economies have figured out that they are creating a huge share of the world’s goods, but their per-capita use of energy is much lower than that of the Advanced Economies. Why should the Advanced Economies get so much of the finished products available from the world’s resources, when most of the work (and the pollution) has taken place in the Other than Advanced Economies? I would expect this type of thinking to take place in China, Russia, India, Iran and other countries in this group. These countries believe that they could get along perfectly well without the Advanced Economies and their high usage of energy.
[4] With these changing patterns, a second potential problem is financial collapse, especially for the Advanced Economies.
Each economy can be encouraged to grow in two different ways: (1) Through more debt, indirectly adding to more “demand” for finished goods, or (2) Through added supply of inexpensive energy products. Adding debt to pull the economy forward seems to work well if there is not a problem with hitting resource extraction limits. Once an economy starts hitting resource extraction limits, however, the added debt partly adds inflation, rather than finished goods and services, to the output mix. Thus, the debt approach no longer works well.
The world as a whole is now hitting resource extraction limits. Not only do individual citizens become unhappy with the higher inflation level, but investors demand higher interest rates for lending. This higher interest cost becomes a huge problem for the Advanced Economies that already have very high debt levels.
A recently issued report by the US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) shows what is happening in the US.
In a sense, the reports that the CBO publishes are “Best Case” scenarios. The reports are optimistic in two different ways: (1) They assume that no more added-debt bail-out programs will be needed, as were used several times in recent years, and (2) They assume that inflation will quickly fall to 2%, so that interest rates can fall quickly and stay lower from now on.
Even with these assumptions, the results are disturbing. Note that on Figure 3 (in both charts shown), the especially significant increase in debt starts around 2008. This is when the US, and likely most of the other Advanced Economies, started to hide their energy problems by using more debt stimulus.
Even when the most optimistic possible estimate of the future “primary deficit” is made, and when the most optimistic possible forecast of future “net interest” outlays is made, there is still a huge build-up of debt. The implication is that very large tax increases will be needed to maintain current programs. Even with these huge tax increases, the problem will get worse and worse, year after year. There is a need to cut back on existing government programs to avoid adding the need to pay even more interest on debt in the future.
[5] If an economy is forced to shrink back, debts of all kinds become more difficult to repay with interest.
Any economy needs to grow, in order to repay debt with interest. A growing economy has a surplus with which to pay interest.
On the other hand, a shrinking economy tends to lead to major debt defaults. Leveraged debt is especially likely to cause problems.
The CBO is now forecasting that the US government could run into debt limit problems as soon as July 2025. Perhaps the US government will find ways around the current apparent shortfall, but the issue of the government not being able to meet its debt obligations without major tax increases or reductions in programs still looms in the background.
I expect that within the next three months, we will start to see loan defaults of some type, such as defaults by hedge funds. Governments will want to step in, but they will be limited by their own financial problems. Defaults on many other kinds of debts are likely to start taking place, as well. If inflation rates rise, and interest rates rise with them, defaults on many kinds of debt could start taking place.
[6] It seems likely that nearly all the Advanced Economies will have similar problems.
The Advanced Economies have tended to offer their citizens many benefits, including pensions for the elderly and some type of healthcare coverage. Many of them have financially supported what they are hoping will be energy types that will take the place of the energy types they seem to be losing.
If an economic system is not growing as fast as it has in the past (because of low energy consumption growth, and lack of debt stimulus), or is actually shrinking, these economies are likely to face a choice between either cutting back on promised programs or raising taxes. Governments will find themselves needing to cut back on programs that they have promised to their citizens, or, alternatively, they will need to default on their debt.
[7] Adding to the problems of the Advanced Economies will be the issue of goods and services needing to be made closer to home.
Without enough oil for all purposes, a logical way to cut back is to use less oil for international shipping. This would tend to reverse the trend toward globalization that started many years ago.
Figure 4 shows that the US started shifting heavy industry to other countries with better supplies of oil as early as 1974. The Kyoto Protocol of 1997 gave another reason (or excuse?) for shifting heavy industry to countries with less expensive, more abundant, energy supplies.
I expect that in the next few years, the Advanced Economies are likely to need to move industrial production back closer to home, to save on limited world oil supplies. This will be difficult to do, especially in a timeframe of less than 20 to 30 years. New mines will be needed for minerals, but the lead times on these are very long, typically 13 years or more. New processing plants for these minerals will likely be needed as well, potentially adding to the lead time. Whole new, short supply chains will be required. Finally, goods and services manufactured closer to home will need to be transported to citizens, sometimes in new ways.
Many of today’s manufactured goods require imports of minerals from China or Russia. To the extent that specific minerals from these countries can no longer be imported, additional closer sources will be needed. This will further add to manufacturing difficulties.
[8] It will not be surprising if governments, or parts of governments, collapse.
History indicates that when civilizations reach resource limits, governments tend to fail. A recent example of this was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991, after an extended period of low oil prices. The Soviet Union was a major exporter of oil, and the low oil prices (plus other internal problems) led to the inability to repay promised debt. The separate republics within the Soviet Union remained, so the people were not left completely without a government. I expect something similar may happen elsewhere in the future.
[9] History suggests that even in a financial collapse, the entire economy will not fall apart, all at once.
Incremental changes are likely to take place. Governments are likely to try to make cutbacks. Financial investments are likely to do especially poorly in the next several years, and high-paying jobs seem likely to disproportionately disappear. The economy will no longer be able support as many specialists as are working today, in many industries.
The electricity supply likely won’t fall off all at once; instead, electricity will become increasingly intermittent, with some areas having more outages than others. Diesel and gasoline will perhaps be available, at least part of the time.
New car sales in the Advanced Economies are likely to fall very soon, leaving citizens mostly dealing with used cars, and the difficulty of finding appropriate replacement parts for used cars. The problem of “empty shelves” in stores is likely to return and get worse.
There will likely be an increasing divide between the relative handful of citizens who are doing well, and the many others. In fact, we are already seeing a trend in this direction in the US. But many of today’s big spenders are likely to be knocked down in any coming economic contraction.
[10] Perhaps the good news in this contraction is that major international wars may not be a problem.
Instead, civil wars and local skirmishes may be the order of the day. There may not be resources available to fight long-distance wars, even if many citizens might favor this approach. Wars give an excuse for more debt and more income for soldiers, so they are always popular in troubled economic times. But a lack of materials for making military supplies (including insufficient sources of antimony) and the inability to raise debt financing may impede efforts.
[11] What should we expect in the future?
The US and many other Advanced Economies are likely heading into a worse and longer lasting financial crisis than the 2008 crisis, starting as soon as this summer. The problem will likely not start out as a full financial collapse. Instead, various leveraged borrowers will encounter difficulties. Gradually, the finances and very structures of many government organizations are likely to be threatened. Some government structures that we currently depend upon may disappear.
How the long term will unfold is unclear. We know that ecosystems often operate in wide cycles, and that economic systems are a kind of ecosystem. This relationship suggests the possibility of a later renewal.
Furthermore, Eric Chaisson, in Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature, points out that there is a very long term trend in the universe toward more complex and more energy-dense structures. His analysis seems to suggest the possibility of evolution toward a different kind of more complex, energy-dense economy ahead.
In this ever-changing world, there may very well be opportunities for personal success. It will likely be a time of major readjustment, however. Perhaps quite a few people will be able to do well if they can keep their eyes open for opportunities to prosper, making the best possible use (or reuse) of resources that are available.
Appendix: Background on Oil, Coal and Electricity from Uranium
Oil Background
Oil was at one time a very inexpensive fuel, even when adjusted for inflation to 2023’s price level.
With the low prices that were available before 1970, oil could be used widely. It could be used to create electricity, and roads could be paved. Many people could afford cars who could not afford them previously.
In 1973, oil prices soared (Appendix: Exhibit 2). Appendix: Figure 3 shows that between 1981 and 2021, falling interest rates helped to make higher oil prices more tolerable. More debt could be added, and with lower interest rates, monthly payments could stay low.
Appendix: Exhibit 2 also shows that a big part of the problem since 2021 is that while debt levels are now high, interest rates will not stay down. This means that the cost of drilling new wells is now higher, and the general cost of investment in the economy is higher.
Appendix: Exhibit 1, indicates that, since 1991, the greatest per-capita quantity of oil that customers were able to afford occurred in the 2004 to 2007 period. This was a time in which home mortgage debt stimulus was used to keep the US economy growing; it was the time of Alan Greenspan and the NINJA (No Income, No Jobs, No Assets) home loans. The resulting sub-prime US housing bubble is reported to have lasted from 2003 to 2007. This sub-prime debt bubble is at least part of what led to the 2008 financial crisis.
The high US demand for oil as a result of the home mortgage debt bubble of 2003 to 2007 helped world oil prices to rise and consumption to rise. More recently, per-capita world oil consumption has been down, especially in 2020. Oil supply has not regained the 2004 to 2007 level, or even the 2018 level, in the most recent estimates.
Oil extraction has traditionally been a huge source of tax dollars, especially for oil exporters, even when oil was sold at relatively low prices. Anything that replaces oil needs to fill this role as well, because the economy needs energy (and taxes from energy) to operate. This tax revenue is a way to share what is sometimes called the “surplus energy” of the oil with the government of a country. At currently high extraction costs, this surplus energy benefit is largely disappearing.
Coal Background
Appendix: Figure 1 shows that the fuel in second largest supply has been coal. Its supply grew greatly after 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organization. This growth in coal supply did not last long because coal that was cheapest-to-extract and closest-to-markets quickly depleted. Appendix: Figure 1 shows the peak in per capita coal supply was hit in 2011.
Coal helped start the industrial revolution. By 1700, it grew to be the dominant fuel in England. Coal gradually replaced firewood and was used in many new ways.
Appendix: Figure 5 shows the ways coal has recently been used. It is used directly in industry, besides being burned for electricity.
Nuclear Background
Appendix: Figure 1 shows that the peak in per-capita nuclear energy production occurred in 2001. But at one time there had been great hope for nuclear power.
It was known as early as the 1950s that fossil fuel supplies were likely to face depletion issues as soon as 2050. Physicist M. King Hubbert was of the belief that electricity from uranium would be too cheap to meter. He also believed that the quantity of electricity produced could be very high. Neither of these things has come to pass.
Early nuclear reactors were built to avoid problems that engineers could see needed to be avoided. This approach led to accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Chernobyl (1986), and Fukushima (2011). It became clear that design upgrades were needed, raising costs and lengthening timelines for building reactors.
In theory, there is quite a bit of uranium to be extracted, but getting the price up high enough, for long enough, has been a problem. The World Nuclear Association shows this chart of production through 2022. Production in recent years has been lower than consumption.
Fortunately, there has been a supply of nuclear warheads which could be down blended to provide uranium for nuclear reactors. This supply of nuclear warheads is now close to being exhausted. If nuclear power is to be expanded, more uranium will be needed.
Other details have proven problematic as well. In theory, the spent fuel can be reprocessed and used as fuel for reactors, but in practice, this process seems to be costly and time-consuming to set up.
Another issue is the high cost of building new nuclear reactors, and the need for debt to fund this cost. Clearly, the higher the interest rate, the higher the cost. Not many organizations can fund these high costs, in advance of actually getting electricity out and delivered to customers.
In general, to keep costs low for customers, the sale of electricity is priced at the margin. In many places, electricity from wind turbines and solar panels is given “priority.” As a result, wholesale electricity prices tend to be too low for electricity from nuclear power plants, driving them out of business. The price level is certainly not high enough to pay high taxes to governments. Such a margin would be needed if nuclear were to have a chance of truly replacing the benefits we have had in the past from inexpensive-to-produce oil.
AI is cool
https://imgur.com/a/sgNgG4b
Lion and lamb lie down together.
Excellent . Tim Watkins .
https://consciousnessofsheep.co.uk/2025/04/05/economic-chemotherapy/
Yes! Excellent!
“But it might be that, given the ever-growing threat of an American dollar default (whether through inflation or an inability to repay its treasury debt) a radical shake up is the only thing left on the table.”
Bring on the Mar-a-Lago accords. Let us hope they remember John Maynard Keynes proposed feature: nations with trade surpluses must pay a tax to be paid to nations with trade deficits. Forced balanced trade.
Can someone please tell me what was the neoliberal world order?
According to Investopedia:
I would point out that the focus gets to be on more debt and more leverage, as opposed to prudent planning for the future. Make a profit today, don’t worry about the future.
In the period since 1981, a major feature has been using lower interest rates to support the economy. More debt goes with lower interest rates. More debt at lower interest rates can hide resource problems for while, but it cannot be a permanent solution.
Neoliberalism leads to bigger and bigger businesses, who care less and less about the people it supposedly serves.
Interest rates will just drop that’s all they are capable of doing even if they go to negative 10 %
Interesting observations:
Watkins describes what he seems to think is Trump’s current plan:
I am skeptical that Step 3 will work. Watkins says:
Hysteria. The emergency kit sounds like they think that this is the 1950s. Does anyone even have a battery radio these days? Presumably to listen to some drum and bass while the lights are out. And make sure that you have your passport – in case you want to take a fight. Ensure that you have some plasters in case you cut yourself on the swiss army knife – which everyone has these days – when you open the de rigueur tin of baked beans.
Dib, dib.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14575537/Brits-prepare-72-hour-survival-kit-Putin.html
Brits should prepare a 72 hour ‘survival kit’ as Putin plots to sabotage gas pipelines and cause mass blackouts, warn spies
Fears of a plot by Russia to sabotage Britain’s energy pipelines means families should pack a 72-hour ‘survival kit’, security advisers have warned.
As the UK pursues Net Zero environmental targets – leading to the closure of coal-fired power stations – the country has become increasingly reliant on supplies of gas and electricity from abroad in order to ‘keep the lights on’.
Nearly 40 per cent of the UK’s gas supply is imported from Norway, much of which comes through the single, 700-mile Langeled pipeline.
Concerns that the Russians are planning a sabotage operation have escalated since one of their spy ships, the Yantar, was detected mapping the UK’s critical underwater infrastructure in the North Sea in recent months.
With the UK reported to have come close to blackouts during the past winter – saved only by emergency reserves and electricity imported undersea from Denmark – security experts have argued that British households should follow the example of the EU, which has advised citizens to pack a three-day survival kit.
This should include water, non-perishable food, medicines, a battery-powered radio, a torch, identity documents and a Swiss Army knife.
…. They said: ‘We are focused on ensuring that the UK has the defence it needs, with plans to reach 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence by 2027.’
Some countries will be sacrificed the UK will be targeted during the great reset every country will be targeted to make it fair during the great contraction and they will just blame it on Russia can’t you guys see this is all planned a classic case of good cop bad cop. You have got to hand it to the elders they have covered their tracks incredibly well no one suspects a thing.
Yes the end of oil age is at hand and brits are being advised to have 3 days of food on them sounds like the brits will be put through the fast eddy challenge very soon the Swiss army knife will come in handy in case you are attacked during the ensuing chaos.
Australia will be in the best position to survive there are only about 20 million people here so the fast eddy challenge may be survivable for maybe 5 % of us if we all work together .
This is a link that was posted earlier to the French version of survival kit.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/19/europe/france-survival-manual-scli-intl
France is also recommending having on hand paper money, photocopies of important documents, and a portable charger for a person’s cell phone.
Switzerland seems to have been relatively safe and secure for two centuries with a policy of ‘armed neutrality’. Its defence budget is currently just 1% of GDP. On that basis who needs more?
But maybe raising the UK proportion further, from 2% to 2.5%, will help to feed all these poverty-stricken [sarc.] arms manufacturers.
I do not believe there can be financial collapse, only financial reset, reorganization. The economy still exists. The firehouse is still standing, its bricks still in place and functioning. The fire trucks are still in place and functioning. We will need to decide who get claim to the real economy. The puffed up lies die. If you are a banker you may end up hanged but if you are a worker you are fine.
Trump has done service in popping the bubble. Now if he can put an end to rolling over impossible debt then he will have a place on Rushmore.
Make America Great Default.
EIA has posted an estimate of world crude oil production for last December (82.386 mb/d) — this is 0.8% below their current figure for post-covid peak oil (83.016 mb/d, for December, 2023), & 2.6% below their current figure for world peak oil (84.592 mb/d, in November, 2018).
Their current annual figure for 2024 world oil production is shown graphically at https://davecoop.net/seneca .
Much of the world oil production of late has involved “light” oil, from US oil “fracking” — can this keep up? ( https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-oil-producers-face-new-challenges-top-oilfield-flags-2025-03-27/ ) Can production of SMD (sweet middle distillates) oil continue at past levels, with flagging oil prices? ( http://oil-price.net/ )
https://www.eia.gov/international/data/world/petroleum-and-other-liquids/monthly-petroleum-and-other-liquids-production?pd=5&p=0000000000000000000000000000000000vg&u=0&f=M&v=mapbubble&a=-&i=none&vo=value&t=C&g=00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001&l=249-ruvvvvvfvtvnvv1vrvvvvfvvvvvvfvvvou20evvvvvvvvvvnvvvs0008&s=94694400000&e=1733011200000
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4428912-crude-oil-sinks-to-lowest-in-nearly-four-years-refiners-oilfield-service-stocks-smacked
Seeking Alpha is behind a paywall. This is a link to a Market Insider WTI price chart that can be adjusted to show oil prices for several year.
https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wtitarget%3D&op=1
The WTI price drop recently was dramatic. No wonder it hurt the price of shares of oil companies.
Thanks!
The first link is a Reuters article about the Permian. I would call it pretty pessimistic.
“U.S. oil producers are grappling with geological limits to production growth as the country’s top oilfield ages and produces more water and gas and less oil – and may be nearing peak output.”
The article has some interesting figures about the water to oil ratio in different fields.
With respect to the EIA data you link to, the monthly data jumps up and down quite a bit. The annual data shows a similar pattern. It shows crude oil production (in 000 barrels per day) for recent years as follows:
2016 80,987
2017 81,206
2018 82,933
2019 82,128
2020 76,025
2021 77,220
2022 80,891
2023 81,963
2024 81,833
So, production for 2024 is below production for the 2023 year. It is considerably below production in 2018 and 2019. We seem to be well past “peak crude oil” on a worldwide basis. If the Permian is doing as poorly as claimed, 2025 will likely be lower.
Trump is panicking with the China retaliation . Musk will not support Trump if it means the shutdown of the Tesla plant in Shanghai . Musk is ” Musk first ” . China called the Trump bluff saying all support is AI generated . They are hitting back with their own AI generated posts . Stock markets closed for the weekend but let us see what happens on Monday . Let the ” Hunger Games ” begin .
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cvg52gjwg91t?page=2
Concerning the inevitable negative consequences that Trump’s tariffs will bring to US (as well to the others), the hypothesis that I have is in two points:
1) Trump’s administration has not weighed correctly the consequences of the relative popular discontent in US of the (at least) first year of two.
So they will obliged to make some big adjustments to this plan of tariffs to the world.
2) Trump’s administration has perfectly weighted the consequences of popular discontent and therefore it has already planned an alternative bloody distraction like a war, a pandemic, an extraordinary terroristic event and other similar shocks, we just have to wait to see.
Biden/Harris hit the middle class from below with immigration, etc. Now Trump is going to hit us from above, via tariffs.
“Laugh about it, shout about it, any way you pick you lose.” From Simon and Garfunkle’s song “Mrs Robinson.”
Where will all this supposed revenue that we will collect from these tariffs wind up?
Ans: In the oligarchs’ pockets.
But there will be fewer cars made in total, and fewer shipped long distance across the ocean. This will help the limited supply of oil go further.
I figure that depends on oil price action.
“ the news coming out of the Israeli Channel 14 a large a
0:06 large scale attack on Iran will begin soon an unprecedented assault since
0:12 World War II “
AP news seems to have somewhat different view.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-attack-israel-strikes-mideast-war-tehran-35a2b1474e5feedbb200c3aaa557fe60
Five things to know about Israel’s attack on Iran
Israel delivered its long-expected response to Iranian missile attacks early Saturday by carrying out a series of airstrikes against the Islamic Republic. . .
Iran insisted the strikes caused only “limited damage.” . . .
The strikes did not appear to target facilities that would all but ensure a harsh Iranian response. Those most notably include Iran’s oil infrastructure, the backbone of the OPEC member’s economy, and its nuclear facilities.
President Biden earlier this month said he would not support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear sites. . .
Israel signaled that the pre-dawn bombardment was the end of this attack.
Israeli Chanel 14 perhaps puts a more favorable spin on news (from Israel’s point of view) than other news sources.
We will have to wait and see.
Clearly Musk could see that there would be counter-tariffs. I haven’t seen anything yet about the possibility of the shutdown of the Tesla plant in Shanghai. China probably needs the jobs for its citizens.
There is still time for a lot of back and forth.
Gail , I am not saying they will shutdown Tesla . There is more than one way to skin a cat and the Chinese know it . Just nationalize it or force Musk to sell to BYD or make a ” boycott Tesla ” call in China . What I am talking about is the leverage that China has over Trump via Elon . Further Trump has miscalculated . He is waiting for Xi to call him up and ask for a deal — this will not happen . The Chinese had made it clear ” we are ready not only for a trade war but any war ” . Trump does not read but someone should give him a few pages of how the Chinese CCP feels about ” 100 years of humiliation ” in China’s history . Anyway protests across USA have started after a 10-15% fall in the stock market . What when it is 30 % ? Get the pitchforks .
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gmd3g2nzqo
A tiktok-tesla swap looks suspiciously like trash for trash.
The people who protest have no stocks. It is just the usual Soros funded crowd. antifa and whatnot. do you expect middle class retirees to join the protests eventually?
I’m not sure what the people in the US will notice. People will notice whether their grocery store has food, and whether it is reasonably affordable. They may look at the gasoline price. They will look at whether rents are rapidly rising. But the majority of US citizens are not very tuned into the stock market.
The Democrats need someplace to vent their anger at not being able to do much of anything.
Got to go for my walk, but damn I like this idea.
I could be come a garbage collector with this idea, perhaps have my smiling face photographed driving a garbage truck, nah, that would never work.
Copilot doing huge amounts of work:
“Market Opportunity: Space agencies and private companies are highly concerned about the Kessler Syndrome. Governments, including NASA and ESA, already invest in research and technologies to mitigate orbital debris risks.
Offering orbital cleanup services could:
Attract contracts from governments and corporations.
Establish partnerships with satellite operators looking to protect their investments.
“Profitability Outlook
While the upfront costs are immense, the long-term revenue from metal recovery, debris cleanup services, and space construction could outweigh initial investments, especially as technology improves and demand grows. This venture could make a buck—and perhaps even a fortune—if executed strategically”
We need solutions, our future is written in the stars not the mud. We leverage the knowledge, technology, we go searching for solar junk, Pt of course.
Dennis L.
Copilots can only chatter. Not being able to be useful.
Sorry, humanity’s futures are in the mud. Not in the empty space.
The clean-up would take a lot of resources, including energy resources. We need these resources for basic services, like growing and transporting food. We could live with space junk, better than we can live with a lot of other problems.
I think you are spending too much time with someone who believes all the junk can be shipped to Jupiter, not really thinking about where the energy to do so is coming from.
Note: at one point I had a dental lab, very large, routinely melted Cr-Co at bout 2700 degrees F, hence my question to Copilot.
“Updated Concept Breakdown
Crucible Design with Targeted Solar Proximity:
Material Selection: The crucible could be constructed from tungsten or a similar high-melting-point material to comfortably endure temperatures above 3,000°F (1,650°C). Since the Sun provides ample energy, induction heating might only need fine adjustments via distance controls to achieve precise melting points.
Distance from the Sun:
By calculating a perihelion where the temperature is just hot enough to melt metals but not vaporize them, you create the ideal environment for refining. For reference:
Gold melts at 1,948°F (1,064°C).
Platinum melts at 3,215°F (1,768°C).
Aluminum (likely present in junk) melts at 1,221°F (660°C), so it would separate earlier.
Separation Process:
The melting process naturally separates metals by density and melting point. Here’s how it would work:
Lower melting point metals like aluminum and copper separate first and float or sink based on density.
Higher melting point metals like platinum, gold, and silver remain to be purified later.
Gravitational Assistance: Microgravity or controlled rotational forces (centrifugal separation) could help segregate materials into layers within the crucible.
System Adjustments to Scale:
Large-scale “orbital refining modules” could process significant quantities of debris in parallel.
To scale up to fusion, the Sun’s inherent energy is already the fusion driver here. Future advancements might involve optimizing material collection and ejection systems to handle thousands of tons of debris at once.
Can you tell, I really like fusion energy and the existing engineering in place.
Earlier, I suggested Copilot examine the size of SS plates orbiting earth acting acting as collectors – this is not subtle, just ram into the stuff embed in multiple layer of steel. It does not take that long per Copilot.
Wow, sweeping the orbits of junk, doing so with a “Bang.” So much for Kessler, well, use Kessler to make a buck. We have Starship to put the collector in orbit, somewhere there is a cubic mi of Pt in space for a H economy on earth.
I like this turning junk to gold and saving spaceship earth for biology as well as a metaphorical chicken in every pot as a step for solving social stresses.
Dennis L.
I am not certain that what is “junk” and what is useful in space is easy to determine, in advance, except perhaps by examining a small area in detail. Is a science experiment, launched in 2016 by a high school class as part of a group launch project, junk or useful?
I think that one of the big obstacles to clearing out junk is not even knowing what is truly junk.
You do make an interesting point about dentists having experience with melting metals on a small scale, and separating out different metals by specific gravity. In theory, solar heat could be directed for this purpose.
I can imagine that solar heat might be a little hard to control. For example, a cloud could come by. It seems like control of the heat level would be very important. You wouldn’t want the process to freeze solid at the wrong time.
Thanks for the comments:
I am looking at space junk, thinking(had Copilot do some rough calculations) of a large steel plate, perhaps a series, perhaps different metals circling the earth, smashing into space junk with its associated precious metals, having it fuse into the plate(s) then nudged toward the sun, Copilot came up with the crucible made of tungsten I think, control distance from sun, melt off metals, collect, recycle. I am not looking for elegance, a simple collision at say 18K mph would be sufficient to melt the junk into the plate. There would be deceleration issues, that is overhead, not an orbital physicist, start high, spiral in than blast out to solar orbit with a load of Pt, Ag, Au with perhaps a dash of Cu.
There is no friction in space, the sun is a well engineered fusion reactor, the metals. AG, AU, Pt, etc. are in near earth orbit and sooner or later there is a Kesler collision, etc. Had Copilot run some rough calculations, there are billions of dollars in orbit, don’t have to go all that far for Pt. Again, moving it to solar orbit is frictionless, get a train moving, give it a few years/decades and the metals come back to earth in a train. When metals are found in solar system, fusion refining with knowledge gained from refining space junk.
Starship is close, AI is close, robotics is close, need an application which makes things, mines things and makes a buck. These things have to be self supporting, mining the near by stuff makes possible mining the solar system. That literally changes the course of humanity. Musk might help to have junk removed so it doesn’t hit his satellites.
Earth is indeed finite, the solar system is as well, but it is a very large finite.
This site talks often about the course of humanity, it is not pretty. From what I see we need a way to make H cheaply, Pt would do that. We need a readily available Pt source, near earth orbit may well do that. We can’t pollute our spaceship much more and we need energy in a form useable with current engineering.
There is something emotionally appealing going around the earth, smashing into junk, fusing it on to plates, melting it with fusion and shoving the pollution to Jupiter and making a buck at the same time.
I have suggested an outline, Copilot is free, ask it questions, see if they make sense to you guys. Think of it as conversation material for another year which may prove wonderful for mankind.
Dennis L.
Those who used Kessler to make a buck , ironically, was NASA who used it to get more funding to study the space, which went nowhere near solving the syndrome.
Turning junk into gold is not new either. Alchemists tried to do that a few hundred years ago and although what they did did improve chemistry a bit they never succeeded
If the earth has a future it won’t come from delusions.
Have you considered the fact that by the time it gets to aphelion the stuff will have solidified again? There are evangelicals that are more rational than you.
He has not, since his worldview is very warped
Dennis, you could ask Copilot what it thinks about giant magnifying glasses in space to focus the sun’s heat onto crucibles of metallic oars. This might be more feasible than moving the entire process million miles closer to the sun and having to bring the refined metals back out of the gravity well.
Where is Keith when we need him?
An old recreation area in Slovakia converted into a refuge for homeless people
https://myturiec.sme.sk/c/23470841/ludia-z-ulice-si-postavili-kostol-zo-stareho-dreva-urobili-si-v-nom-aj-birmovku.html
In the US, we seem to have a lot of indoor malls that could be converted to places for homeless people.
I’m wondering what they are going to do with the 185 bed hospital that will be closing this August and moving to a brand new $200 million facility, almost 2 years behind schedule and $50 million over budget and only 80 beds. That’s what happens when these big health care corporations like Sentara have too much money that they don’t know what to do with. Probably wind up as section 8 housing?
My former medical office is part of this old complex, and its value will crash, so for now, I’ve just decided to live in it until my daughter finishes up at NC State, takes a gap year and from there maybe PA school. (4 more years -by which time it won’t matter) But it has some good aspects. Food Lion and YMCA are just an 8 minute bike ride away along the waterfront boardwalk where I can count the turtles sun bathing on the logs. I can rig up any kind of antenna in the parking lot with no HOA harassment to run my HAM radio, I can play my drums at 2:00 AM with no one to complain, and have plenty of room to store my “stuff.”
But curiously, they have just broken ground to build a huge nursing school complex next to the YMCA , with the Community College next door and the hospital between the college and my office all located on the main highway. The other college (DEI type) here is also on a wild building spree. 75% of those admitted students have SAT scores at or below 470.
Strange world we live in. The extra high costs don’t necessarily add very much true life saving value for a hospital.
Trump has made a huge mistake. The economy was already in downturn he should have waited blamed it all on Biden and then put in tariffs. Now he looks like a rich aristocrat out of touch with reality. He owns the economy now and everything that happens henceforth. I admit I hate trust funders and the Republican Party is ripe with them. You can’t throw a rock without hitting one. Democratic Party full of them too
You crash the economy as soon as possible so it recovers for the election season then win the next election.
It’s not a Yo-Yo.
The number of jobs lost in 09 took nearly 8 years to recover. Obama didn’t have any NET positive job creation until his last year.
I think you are misunderstanding how economics works. The complete crash is about 6 months away. The turn around takes a loooong time. Did the U. S ever recover from 08? No! They just papered over it with debt. I am shocked at how naive people on here are! You can’t just move tons of factories over to the u.s without a cheap labor force. Midterm elections will turn Trump into a lame duck. Oh well no one on here could understand that we were heading for a Great Depression until now. I guess people just want to think with emotions.
Or, we had a good run and somethings got to give. The US might just be able to extract another few cycles out of the system, at the expense of the rest of the world if it plays its cards perfectly.
I kind of like the theory that, the stock market pummelling will continue to sell off, pushing many into treasuries as a safe haven, while simultaneously driving down the interest rates so that the several trillion USD a year interest obligation goes way down.
The rest of the world also suffers, and currency drained from it to also heads to the US. Manufacturing returns, and with no tariffs on any remaining partners, the system continues a bit longer on US terms.
This would be horrible for many countries, unless they have something to trade. But, somethings got to give.
I think your view of what happens may prove to be true.
I am not sure how much manufacturing can return, unless US natural gas use for electricity and heating is scaled way back, so it can be used for industrial uses. LNG exports also need to be scaled back.
Manufacturing returns
You say that like it’s gone on holiday. It’s a lot more complicated than that to set up manufacturing and supply chains. It’s not going to happen.
I totally agree. But there will be gains here and there. Tariffs on fruits for example will boost CA and Washington State. Tariffs on olive oil also CA. Right now it is difficult to find american EVOO in stores.
Another example reported today. Euro imports of beer will be effectively blocked. With thousands of micro-breweries in the US, I don’t see the need to move stuff that is 96% water and glass across the ocean.
Right, I remember good old Anchor Steam
My favorite beer when I was living in CA in the 1980s. But now any city above 50,000 has one or several. a 100,000 college town will have 5 or so. I know the scene well as I used to make it myself. The stores that sell supplies to the private producer do well also. heineken will not be missed, and the precious glass will be in part recycled. europeans can drink it, perhaps once again toasting the destruction of the evil nord stream.
Space pollution is becoming a bigger problem.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/catastrophe-looms-above-space-junk-problem-grew-significantly-worse-2024
We depends on space for a lot of things, including GPS.
Hopefully. They won’t find plastic disposal bottles floating out there in orbit too.
Agree, too much junk in orbit; can satellites work at greater orbits? Volume increases with the cube of r.
China has turned a blind eye in the past towards pollution, it has worked so far. Rare earth refining is an example close to home.
Dennis L.
AKA Kessler Syndrome. Whats concerning is, that it is statistically inevitable at this point. When it happens, we will have a impenetrable bullet shield in the sky preventing us from getting anything to deep space.
In 100,000 years or so following the event, the sky would clear. There would be endless shooting star showers during that time. That might be nice I guess, as a silver lining.
Whats concerning is, that it is statistically inevitable at this point. When it happens, we will have a impenetrable bullet shield in the sky preventing us from getting anything to deep space.
That isn’t concerning because we won’t be needing space for much longer or ever again.
Well, I see opportunity, Copilot.
“Assuming there are thousands of satellites and space debris containing platinum components, and each satellite uses a few kilograms of platinum, the total amount could be in the range of tens to hundreds of metric tons. With the current price of platinum at approximately $995 per ounce, even a modest amount of platinum in orbit could represent a gross value in the billions of dollars”
Gold (Au):
It’s estimated that there are around 7.5 million kilograms of gold in orbit, primarily in space debris. With the current price of gold at approximately $1,900 per ounce, this could translate to a gross value of over $450 billion
If we assume that thousands of satellites and space debris contain silver, and each satellite uses a few kilograms of silver, the total amount could be in the range of hundreds to thousands of metric tons. With the current price of silver at approximately $33.97 per ounce, this could represent a gross value in the tens of billions of dollars.
So we need a collector with a way to avoid active satellites. It will suffer a certain amount of wear(obviously), refining will not be a problem as we will use proximity to a fusion source to do that and of course, nudge waste towards Jupiter.
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step, the first gram of Pt is that step on the way to a cubic mile.
Recycling at its finest and done well, it makes money which is in turn invested in droids to explore the solar system for the “mother load” or the cubic mile of Pt.
I know it can’t be done and we wait until a Kessler syndrome occurs and live with the mess.
Dennis L.
Do you seriously think those who know more about space than you had not thought about this before?
The junk is all near orbit (100 km above ground). GPS satellites are at 17,000 km. I say life is not threatened, except for trigger happy nations panicking once their bird eye view is shot.
Gail, this if off topic, but has anyone gone to see the Disney movie “Snow White”? I’m taken back by the uproar about it all the controversial aspects of the cultural nitpicking of she said/he said and the story line.
The reason I bring it up is I do go for a matinee $5.00 showing with a friend in an empty theater and was surprised on how good it was and enjoyed seeing it, kinda remembering the original. Sure, as a critic, it could have been better IMO, too long and maybe cut out the part with the Queen singing her song, and shorting (pun intended) the Dwarfs. It was casted perfect and Rachael Ziegler did a fine performance as Snow White, ( in the movie she got her name because she was born in a snow storm). Boy, just reflects the tabloid nonsense banter of the social media.
Probably the children in today’s world are not interested in the story any longer and want to see something else, even though this was updated.
Whatever the case, I would watch it again
The movie cost a huge amount to make and deliberately deviated from the original story line. Snow White was not really Snow White–a blue eyed blonde would have worked better.
Parents weren’t enthusiastic about taking their children to the show. Even at $5.00, a family with two spouses and two children would be paying $20.00. Going to a movie is not their highest priority.
The cost of making the movie was completely out of line.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/carolinereid/2025/04/03/how-to-make-a-13-million-profit-from-snow-white/
Well. In that case, when they show it on cable TV Disney channel, don’t hesitate to watch it with the grandchildren.
The Queen is rather scary in the movie.
Or, send a message to Disney to end this cultural destruction, and specifically do not watch it to let them know that there are consequences to DEI and ESG.
Disney does not deserve to exist any longer.
Oh well, from what I’ve gather Disney may be making corn adult videos and even sponsor some pay to view …of course by other aliases
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qiUWvxerU8Q
“The Message” Is Dead – Snow White Was The Funeral
The Critical Drinker always does a good job of breaking down what has been done correctly, and what has not. Although Drinker doesnt go into the controversies with dwarf actors (etc), he touches on many of the themes which have spoiled this film. He, in particular, is concerned about “the Message”, as we all should be. After all, subverting a culture is a direct path to loosing it all, and we are so very close.
The 5 minute mark does a rapid fire.
Disney used to hate gambling. Now it’s doing a $2 billion sports betting deal.
What Disney’s ESPN/Penn Entertainment tie-up tells us about sports, pop culture, and the media business.
by Peter Kafka
Aug 8, 2023, 7:05 PM EDT
But after Iger stepped down as Disney CEO in 2020, his replacement, Bob Chapek, signaled he was much more interested in sports betting, which became legalized on a state-by-state basis in 2018. And since Iger returned to the top job last fall, he has been signaling he’s become more comfortable with sports betting because his research tells him that’s what young consumers want to do. “I’d prefer to wait as long as possible,” he said earlier this year, but added that it would be “inevitable.”
Financially, the deal doesn’t mean quite as much: While Penn is paying Disney $2 billion over 10 years, spread out between cash and stock warrants, Disney is an $83 billion company. Which is why, unlike Penn, it doesn’t even need to tell investors about the deal in an SEC filing.
What does it tell us about the state of ESPN? Some folks who work at ESPN think it’s a big win: They get an infusion of cash, and they think not just telling their viewers about sports betting but directly participating in
Vox.com
Video linked in comment below is very good. Says the movie would need to gross $700 million at the box office to break even. Remake of old themes, redone to what is considered modern views, is not what audiences today are looking for.
Trump’s tariff policy seems to be based on the one put forward by Ross Perot in 1992. Ross’s reputation was immortalized by his use of the phrase “giant sucking sound” to describe all the jobs “going south.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRr60nmDyu4
My Japanese newspaper was quite upset with Trump saying that Japan had a 700% tariff on imported US rice. So they did a “fact check” and came up with what they consider a much more reasonable figure of about 227%. The actual figure is hard to calculate as under the WTO’s minimum access framework, Japan has a tariff-free rice import quota of about 770,000 metric tons a year and levies 341 yen (US$2.34 per kg) on anything over that amount.
One problem in Japan is that there was a rice production shortfall last year, which led to steeply rising prices and shortages in the shops, and to farmers and traders hoarding to take advantage of the opportunity to make a killing.
In the US, of rice typically costs around $2.20 per kg. In Japan, rice has been selling in the shops recently for 800 yen (US$5.50) per kg.
I voted for Ross Perot back in 1992. Losing jobs around the world seemed to be an issue, back then.
At that time, oil prices were low. The Soviet Union had recently collapsed. There seemed to be plenty of oil for moving manufacturing and jobs around. So the plan to move jobs offshore worked.
Now the situation has changed. We need to be looking for efficient closer situations.
Tariffs and limits on imports have been used for a long time to protect local industries. Perhaps we moved too far away.
Bessent’s a smart guy and there’s nothing wrong with the general plan per se — if one is into nationalist politics, that is — but in the big picture context it’s just another clever, nasty little trick that the Elites are pulling on the manufactured, reactionary MAGAMAHA ballot-box ‘revolution.’ If you successfully suppress the reality of peak oil you can leverage that big lie at just the right moment, and for the purpose of making it look like ‘the people’ voted to crash the economy.
Timing is everything. Perot’s timing was cutting edge. Trump’s timing is laughable. It’s a clown show and there’s much mirth in the smoke-filled backrooms
It’s the oft-mentioned Elite disappearing act.
i forget who said—if you put a clown in a palace, you dont get a king you get a circus
Norm , the clown that Denise has pinned hopes on has now come up with a new scam . All scams — not a flamethrower , tunnel boring , Tesla , Space X , Solar city . ROFL .
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/teslas-1950s-style-diner-hollywood-nears-completion
Thomas Sowell has made some incisive comments about Trump’s tariffs. He is far too diplomatic to call POTUS a clown, but he is concerned about the prospects for trade wars and another Great Depression.
(4 minutes)
Sowell is concerned about people just sitting on their money because they have no idea what could happen next. Just doing this would bring the economy down.
Somehow, it seems to be the Invisible Hand that determines the timing.
The story keeps evolving, and the actors change somewhat, but the system stays together better than any of us would have imagined.
My local news interviewed a woman who recently passed away at age 107.
They asked her “what hospital were you born in?”
She laughed “we didn’t have them back then; people took care of each other”.
Midwives have been around for a very long time.
My Grandfather was born on the kitchen table of the farm house he grew up in down in West Virginia. Of course, that was 1924. No electricity, handpump well, horse and wagons. He said they only wore shoes in the winter, to make them last longer.
Shoes used to be extremely expensive relative to income.
I had earlier posted an article by Fabio Vaghi regarding the myth of rearmament in Europe . Mr B also punctures the myth . 12 min read .
” “The previous global paradigm is fading. The era of rapid world trade growth looks to have passed, with EU companies facing both greater competition from abroad and lower access to overseas markets. Europe has abruptly lost its most important supplier of energy, Russia. All the while, geopolitical stability is waning, and our dependencies have turned out to be vulnerabilities.”— Mario Draghi
Trying to recreate this economic boom under today’s oil and resource stricken economic environment is doomed to fail.
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/europes-remilitarization-myth-8d62d7c9bcc0
I think this paragraph is important:
The problem is that we are in a very different world now. Remilitarization will add nothing to the economy. It will take resources away that could be used for other purposes.
Agree, probably cheaper to expend our young people which is not a terribly good idea in my opinion.
Dennis L.
For those with an interest in AI. Two scenarios for AI development. Written by folks who work in the field.
https://ai-2027.com/
also
https://ai-2027.com/summary
kulm posted it below as well. One problem with their piece is that it presupposes massive datacenter construction, but datacenters take a while to build and hardware generations take 1+ years each. This says 2027 for superintelligence, but that’s only 2 hardware generations and one datacenter build-out away. Possible, but hardly guaranteed.
Internet says:
Total Data Center Development Timeline: 3-6 Years
Phase / Timeframe
Design and Development / 9–18 months
Construction / 12–36 months
Energy Procurement / 6–12 months
Total / 3–6 years
This says 2027 for superintelligence, but that’s only 2 hardware generations and one datacenter build-out away. Possible, but hardly guaranteed.
It is not remotely possible. You cannot build a human mind or anything like it out of electric circuits.
Ed, I liked it; read it sort of, skimmed parts, skipped to the next chapter. One sentence was insightful regarding politicians knowing people will essentially suck up to them for position only to betray them later for a better position.
“The only place left to go is the human-controlled areas. This would have sparked resistance earlier; despite all its advances, the robot economy is growing too fast to avoid pollution. But given the trillions of dollars involved and the total capture of government and media, Consensus-1 has little trouble getting permission to expand to formerly human zones.”
Note “the robot economy is growing too fast to avoid pollution.”
Why is the machine still on planet earth which is designed for biology? If the machine is this intelligent, why has it not moved to the solar system which is inorganic and which had more than enough of everything including energy. This machine can self replicate inorganically and this is the essence of biology. If it grows into space, does it become quantum mechanical which seems to be a current hypothesis regarding space. Hmm, God? This narrative does not figure out it is in the wrong place, earth.
Conclusion: while well written, this is a narrative, it is not data centric but might give some hints into Starship. They are moving almost too fast, when something breaks they know now to fix it seemingly before the failed rocket hits the ground. Dueling intelligence could well be BYD and Tesla, Tesla employes super computers, AI. Engineering with AI? BYD developed very rapidly.
Need to take some time and look at the source, going to ask Copilot for its thoughts(that sounds weird).
Dennis L.
Because the machine needs something called energy, a concept you appear to refuse to acknowledge, to move to the space.
You believe Musk can move object around space by just ordering. I am not going to wake you up from such beliefs.
despite all its advances, the robot economy is growing too fast to avoid pollution.
There is no robot economy other than the one that we already have that has existed since the first factory robots in the 1970s.
I posted it below
Game over for America.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/china-imposes-34-tariffs-on-all-us-imports-as-retaliation
On Friday, Beijing said it would restrict the export of seven rare earths — samarium, used in optical lasers and powerful magnets; gadolinium, used as a contrast agent for MRI scans; terbium, used in display devices; dysprosium, used in magnets for wind turbines and electric vehicles; lutetium, used in oil refineries; scandium, used in aerospace and yttrium, used in radar technology.
No rare earths, no US military industrial complex. No more F35 fighter. No more missiles.
Perhaps. Rare earths are, in a sense, not all that rare, but extraction takes a long time to set up and requires energy supplies of the right kinds.
The article claims:
and
Copilot, I noted this earlier as well.
“Yes, pollution was a significant factor in halting rare earth mining in California. The Mountain Pass mine, the only large-scale rare earth element mine in the U.S., faced environmental challenges, including toxic waste spills and contamination risks. These issues led to its closure in 2002. However, the mine has since reopened, with efforts to improve sustainability and reduce pollution2.
Rare earth mining is inherently challenging due to the complex extraction processes that often produce hazardous byproducts. For every ton of rare earth elements mined, substantial amounts of dust, waste gas, wastewater, and radioactive residue are generated. These environmental concerns have made mining rare earths a contentious issue globally.”
Spaceship earth is very precious, NIMBY seems to rule and in this case has merit. Selling one’s backyard to make a buck does not seem like a wise decision.
Dennis L.
Perhaps. Rare earths are, in a sense, not all that rare, but extraction takes a long time to set up and requires energy supplies of the right kinds.
There’s no dysprosium or neodymium in US rare earth deposits and those are the ones you need to build the F35 and other advanced weapons.
The latest measures reflect China’s message to the Trump administration that both sides are equal,
That is not China’s message. The US is not China’s equal.
I notice that the Wall Street Journal is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-tariffs-trade-war-04-04-2025/card/natural-gas-export-facilities-squeezed-by-new-tariffs-rY392PxKZOQjhIT1EPlR
Natural Gas Export Facilities Squeezed by New Tariffs
The thing I would point out is that shipping natural gas oversees, especially as far is terribly wasteful. Recent data says that US natural gas extraction is not even rising. US production of dry gas in 2024 was lower than in 2023.
https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec4_3.pdf
People building new LNG terminals have been hoping that there will actually be natural gas to ship, but I think that this is mostly wishful thinking. The US’s own consumption of natural gas was higher than in 2024 than in 2023, and its net exports were down (slightly).
If we really are short of natural gas, it makes a whole lot more sense to use the natural gas close to home, compared to shipping it half way around the world as LNG, and using quite a bit of it in the process. Getting other countries to put a tariff on it is a clever way of leaving the natural gas for US to use it. No one has to say, “No,” to the expensive LNG exports. They are simply priced too high.
[Edit: Maybe I am reading this wrong. It might be that the tariff will be only on the parts for the LNG export facilities. This would still have a similar beneficial effect.]
electric semis.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bij7r-JGNCM
It is hype, but maybe, maybe not. Looking for a price point of $200k/unit.
No matter what, it is going to be bumpy.
Dennis L.
“Tesla Semi BREAKS ALL Reality For $200K! Elon Musk Announces Mass Production Million Big Rigs! How?”
An equally big question is how we would find electricity to power all of these Big Rigs, and also all of the transmission infrastructure to provide charging for the Big Rigs. I don’t expect to see them soon.
One idea proposed is a string of nuclear power plants at gas station along the major cross continent highways.
Ideas are free and easy to type on the internet.
Agree guest . The ” keyboard warriors ” from the West vs AK -47 ‘s of Vlad and Xi . 🤣
“Every battle is won before it’s ever fought.” — Sun Tzu
it’s called humour 😉
There are no batteries to build these garbage heaps and nowhere to charge them even if they are built. Elon Musk is a con man, nothing more.
as he takes your money, the con artist invariable comes out with the line:
”This is going to make you very rich”
In this, the don is conforming to type—and the suckers are lining up to hand it over.
This will make the cornucopians very happy
https://ai-2027.com/?ending=race#section-race-0
tl. dr. we would have an AGI by 2027, and by 2030 everything will be dominated by it.
Of course, as always in this kind of lofty scenarios, where they get the energy from is not that clear, but at least the cornucopians will be happy about this.
This is worth a look. Everything is mouse-over-able on the information map on the upper right.
As one scrolls down in the article to different time-predictions, the figures in the upper right dynamically change. Something to pay attention to.
MarcosApril 4, 2025, 4:11 PM
See what chapt gpt says about an estimate of the price of diesel in the 2030s.
The price of diesel in the 2030s will depend on several factors, but we can imagine different scenarios:
🔥 Pessimistic scenario (severe energy crisis)
Price in 2030: +5 €/L or even shortages
Explanation: If there is a collapse in oil production (decline in oil fields, lack of investment, sanctions on producing countries), diesel could become a luxury good. In this case, its price would be secondary because there could be supply restrictions and rationing.
⚖ Intermediate scenario (forced energy transition)
Price in 2030: 3-4 €/L
Explanation: If the oil supply continues to decline but there is still some production and refining, diesel will be expensive but affordable. There could be government measures such as higher taxes to force the electrification of transport.
✅ Optimistic scenario (relative stability)
Price in 2030: €2-3/L
Explanation: If oil production does not collapse completely and diesel demand falls due to vehicle electrification, prices could rise moderately, adjusted for inflation.
Copy/paste .
Who will be able to afford ?
Charles Hugh Smith makes some interesting observations:
https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/after-the-tariff-earthquake
I would add that there could be huge damage to financial systems, as an example. The US seems to be trying to distribute its problems to the rest of the world, as well.
Gail, that is a very interesting consideration, thank you.
A huge damage to financial systems is like a controlled demolition of a financial bubble and that could be a clever objective.
But I need your help to understand better the implication of that:
– Isn’t true that perhaps also US financial system will be damaged?
– What will happen to US bond and to the dollar?
– How the inflation will work for American people?
Many thanks.
I am afraid we don’t know the answers yet. I noticed that copper prices are also way down, just as oil prices are down. Many people are expecting a global recession.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/copper-plunges-most-week-covid-crash-tariff-war-hammers-commodities
I am sure that there is the hope that interest rates will drop low enough that US debt coming up for refinancing can be refinanced at close to 2%, but right now they are about 4%. It is the high interest rates that are pushing the deficit terribly high.
Somehow, the economy in each part of the world would seem to be trying to reorganize around the more essential needs. We may import less cheap stuff from Southeast Asia. People will keep their cell phones longer. With less LNG exports, more natural gas might be available in the US to start new industrial processes, or (perhaps) provide power to AI.
What do you buy if you sell stocks? Dollars? Gold?Silver?
Will the Amish be affected by the collapse. Children are flexible and with the Amish education ends about 14 with very possibly better math skills than much of the US.
Not to spotlite the Amish, it is about biology, self replication and man/women/marriage. That is a team with each person specialized in their job.
Dennis L.
The amish will be shot or enslaved by whatever warlord who happen to pass that area. Period
You’re all delusional if you ever think things like bullets will be manufactured after the collapse.
People will starve, the only ones surviving are the ones producing food without machinery.
There will be a period when food production can’t happen, because it will be taken by force by a hungry populace still over carrying capacity. Only once enough people die can food production restart.
Billions of bullets stockpiled by preppers
People will starve, the only ones surviving are the ones producing food without machinery.
There will be enough bullets to take care of the Amish before supplies run out.
There will be two main groups contending for food after the collapse: the Amish and the Famished.
Buy goods you or your family can use now.
I think of money as increasingly having an expiration date. We need to use money to buy things that we or our families need to today, or in the near future. If you don’t need the money, think about giving it away to a close relative who needs it, or a charity you are concerned about.
No matter where we put the currency, it is almost certain to be “worth less” in the future. Even gold will buy less, because fewer goods and services will be available in the future.
Given your interests, you might use the money you have to buy courses that you would like to take, and perhaps dance lessons.
I think we need to keep a foot in both futures, if possible. I have a couple thousand pounds of beans and rice and thousands of rounds of ammo from 2010 when I first learned about peak oil. I’m beginning to think it will still be there when I die from old age. I was scared of losing money in the stock market, and my net worth is probably half of what it could have been if I had it in the market. The world is a complicated system. Have some food and supplies, yes, but invest in a BAU future and live your life too. Through out history there has always been wars, plagues, rises and falls of empires. These things have their own life cycles, and they are longer than a single human lifespan. Peak oil and resource depletion are undoubtedly true, but I have no faith in anyone’s ability to forecast the timeline of those events.
The charges relate to four separate women. It has been alleged that Brand raped a woman in Bournemouth in 1999; indecently assaulted a woman in 2001 in Westminster, London; orally raped and sexually assaulted a woman in Westminster in 2004; and between 2004 and 2005 sexually assaulted a woman, also in Westminster.
Imagine that…wonder why he’s been targeted? Maybe that will give him food for thought as he tries to wiggle out of these charges sitting in a cell with Bubba…
Does not surprise me in the least, he was cruising for a bruising once he started his conspiracy controversial social platform sites, like on YouTube.
Russell Brand was a wild and crazy player back then and probably can’t remember what, when and who….good luck with P Diddy …
Oh, the Peak Oil News blog site is down…suppose it was hacked again or just not up and running anymore. Remember years ago it had fiery exchanges with Shortonoil and his ETP theory…oh if I remember he claimed the price of a barrel would go down..
What is it now, I wonder…asking for a friend
PS. Hope Fast Eddie doesn’t get accused with any bad behavior 😤…
Mike , oil today is $ 65.68 = $ 41.00 in 2018 dollars . The ETP theory for those who don’t know about is here for your study .
https://www.feasta.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Systemic-Change-Rev-7.pdf
Ah, the good old days of heated debate on the Hills Group ETP theory and the intense arguing about it’s validity. That was so much fun back then and just logged in here myself as amusing entertainment…
https://peakoilbarrel.com/on-the-thermodynamic-model-of-oil-extraction-by-the-hills-group/
Rune Likvern
02/25/2017 at 10:01 pm
I got the 57% (per 2016) from someone following the Etp model.
50% is from the Hills group and was as per 2012.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/texas-update-november-2016/#comment-587645
”Falling production is likely to produce a cascading effect as 57% of the demand for petroleum now comes from the petroleum production system itself. Once production begins to fall, demand will fall, and accelerating declining prices will follow. This will push more producers past their minimum operating cash flow level. At that point a feedback loop of falling demand, driving falling prices, driving reduced production will take over.”
I really enjoyed the intensity of back and forth debate about it all and miss the daily diggs given. Better than TV.
I think Shortonoil is no longer with us and miss him..
Anyway, go to the comment section in the above link for some fireworks.
Thanks for your reply
Hello Pan, well, we are about to experience total panic
What happened on the energy markets this week can, without exaggeration, be called a historic moment. In barely 48 hours, oil prices collapsed: both Brent and WTI lost more than $10 per barrel. The reason: an explosive cocktail of new American import duties under President Trump, retaliatory measures from China and an unexpected increase in production by OPEC+.
Trump is stirring things up with tariff increases that, according to analysts, are “economically inimitable”. His own trade analysts are silent, but critics point out that his mythomaniacal reactions are based on a simplistic calculation that hardly takes trade flows into account.
Trump sees it as a show and a battle: on his own social platform Truth Social, he gleefully proclaimed in capital letters that this is “a great time to get rich”.
The markets thought otherwise. The oil price plunged below $65 a barrel, and energy shares worldwide plummeted. Canadian giants such as Suncor and Cenovus lost more than 5%, while European majors such as TotalEnergies and Shell also fell sharply. A “perfect storm”: falling demand expectations, growing fears of recession and an increase in supply announced by OPEC+ as if nothing were wrong. What’s more, the cartel will increase its output by 410,000 barrels per day from May onwards — more than three times the previously announced increase.
Meanwhile, China has increased its own import duties on American products by 34%, and Japan, South Korea and even Germany are nervously shifting in their seats. The Japanese stock market has officially entered bear market territory, with a 9% drop on a weekly basis, the worst since March 2020.
What is happening here is more than a market correction. It is a deep crack in confidence in globalization itself — with oil as the barometer. OPEC+ is gambling on permanent shortages, the US on economic intimidation, China on strategic countermeasures. But no one seems to have a handle on the whole situation. Even the FED is in the dark: will the tariffs cause inflation or deflation due to collapsing energy demand?
The oil price, a political barometer, has rarely fluctuated so sharply. And this shock wave – this collision between economics and ideology – could well mark a turning point in how we understand energy, trade and power.
And we haven’t even talked about the climate yet 🙂 In the link, a sort of panic report hour by hour…..
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Tumble-on-Trump-Tariffs-and-OPEC-Production-Hike.html
Here’s looking at you , Mike .😉
The sharp fall in oil prices should be a real reason for concern. Not many producers can make money at such a price. But the low oil price will appeal to US drivers.
The barrel price has gone down. Brand’s targeting served to help get Mister T ‘elected’ (there’s more than one way to steal an election). Presumably ‘Mister T’ (TPTB) will refuse to extradite him if it comes to that: reward for a job well done.
Russell has lots of cash for Lawyers and to settle out of court with all those Tarts he screwed over in England. Is he living here in the United States? Maybe he should escape to Perth Australia like our FE and the other criminals in times past.
I do like him, but hope he trims that facial hair
He and Rogan will split with MAGA. Tulsi will get fired for cockblocking the warmongering. MAHA will emerge from the ashes to take the reigns. Massie and Ramaswamy will feature prominently.
Dr. Mercola, also known as “A Midwest Doctor” talks about the seemingly miraculous characteristics of DSMO which have pretty much been bypassed by the medical community, indirectly because there is no way to make money from it.
His new article can be found at this link:
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2025/04/04/how-dmso-eases-cancers-hidden-burdens.aspx
This is his summary:
An article from September 2024 is this one:
https://www.midwesterndoctor.com/p/dmso-is-a-miraculous-therapy-for
DMSO is a Miraculous Therapy for Chronic Pain and Musculoskeletal Injuries
The summary for this earlier article is
He is a man of integrity.
As far as I know, the identity of the Substack writer known as A Midwestern Doctor(AMD) had not been publicly disclosed, and there was no definitive information about their gender. From the way they write, my impression is that they are male, but other readers have the impression that they are female
This writer has maintained a level of anonymity because they don’t want their career impacted by their writing. I would be very surprised if they really were Dr. Mercola, who I regard as a bit of an alternative medicine televangelist who runs a website filled with pop-up adds—although he is basically one of the rebels fighting against the Galactic Pharmaceutical Empire.
Some of AMD’s articles have been reproduced on Mercola’s site.
DMSO should be in everyone’s medicine cabinet. If someone has a stroke, it may be a good idea to give them a teaspoon full of DMSO in a glass of water or orange juice ‘clandestinely if necessary) before sending them off to ER.
I take about 10 drops of DMSO in water most days just to help the aging body keep ticking over. I regard it as a good all-round “lubricant.” As I see it, “what harm can it do?”
Subprime loans in India are teetering on the edge of a fresh crisis, with surveys showing signs of distress among 68% of borrowers. Those who have provided the capital for a multiyear 2,100% expansion will have to stomach losses. The $45 billion industry will probably muddle through its latest difficulties, though analysts want the central bank to come up with more robust supervision.
It’s hard to disagree with that assessment. True financial inclusion has to mean more than a bubble — followed by a bust. The share of loans overdue for between 91 and 180 days has jumped to 3.3%, from a post-pandemic low of 0.8% in June 2023. There’s more pain ahead. With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school, the industry is bracing itself for higher defaults.
https://archive.md/JSIcY#selection-1549.0-1557.484
This is an interesting article about a different kind of subprime loans in India:
I would also note that with the coming decline in globalization, opportunities for individuals to get ahead using this approach will fall. Fewer goods can be sold for export, for example. This, by itself, is likely to make it more difficult to repay debt with interest.
” With 27% of borrowers taking out new loans to service old ones, and some families driven to more extreme coping strategies, such as pulling children out of school, the industry is bracing itself for higher defaults. ”
Desperate situation .
I would worry about the suicide rate increasing.
This same kind of thing has gone on in other parts of the world, too.
Robots, more robots.
Musk is currently demonstrating a “new” robot, walks better.
Could this be a battle between JD and Musk? I am thinking of robots sitting in the tractor seat. They can dismount and fuel the tractor, they can steer the tractor and they can deal with inevitable problems with equipment pulled behind. Additionally, if cheap enough one can have multiple tractors of lower power for more work/hour, etc. These robots get rid of what might be many specialized tasks, e.g. a robotic fueling station vs a robot with a traditional fuel hose.
Then, think of them doing off farm jobs and off season jobs. This is not unlike RoboTaxis working 100 hours per week vs 10 hours per week for a personal auto.
It is a time of change and accelerated depreciation schedules, or the salvage value is less than one originally used in determining a period cost. (Someone asked if I knew balance sheets, answer is yup and then some.”
Bit of trivia: There is something about seeing your JD at the dealership, service done, waiting to be delivered to the farm. JD has done a good job, they feel “good.” Do robots have feelings?
Dennis L.
The new system seems to work, as long as supply lines and complexity hold up. But there is a huge problem, if there is not electricity, or some other essential input is lost.
I agree, trying to understand. Had a post regarding forecast oil supplies, seems about 65mbpd in 1970, actual in 2025 was 103 mbpd. That is probably close to a max with declining coming up, but, Starship is a game changer. Were one to have based economic investments on 1970 mbpd forever, one would have missed a lifetime of opportunities.
Regarding complexity, the universe seems to evolve toward complexity, if the big bang is correct, that was a simple start, sort of, maybe, you get the idea.
We have data-centric ideas and narrative ideas, both are seemingly emergent. For human(biological) lifespans we need a narrative which will work for the majority of that period otherwise it seems we have chaos and polarity.
You got me on the emergent idea, I am a believer.
It is going to be bumpy, some narratives have outlived their usefulness, others are emerging. What seems a good bet is not all emergent narratives will be useful. Germany had a historical narrative in the 1930’s, it lead to the total destruction of their nation, bad choice.
The last two words are somewhat from one of the Harrison Ford movie “Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade.” when the bad guy chose the wrong chalice.
Dennis L.
Just a movie. In real life indiaba jones and his gang wiuld have been shot when caught.
But what can i tell anything to spmeone whise worldvuew is shaped by informacials.
I am thinking of robots sitting in the tractor seat. They can dismount and fuel the tractor, they can steer the tractor and they can deal with inevitable problems with equipment pulled behind.
Imagining such things is easy, 1970s TV had robots like that. They will of course never exist.
“Advocates of nuclear energy tend to forget how utterly dependent this civilization is on the wide-scale availability of cheap fossil fuels. The amount of heat energy provided every day by carbon rich fuels is multiples greater than all of the energy the grid delivers in the form of electricity. As of today fossil fuels still generate 82% of all the energy consumed (mostly in the form of high heat) with only a fraction of that heat being turned into electric power. “?
https://thehonestsorcerer.medium.com/the-nuclear-non-solution-39174f06b53e
Thanks! This is an excellent post from a few days ago, by “B.”
He makes excellent points, such as this one:
The link that B uses to 82% of energy coming from fossil fuels is based on the Energy Institute’s 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy. This report values electricity very highly. It assumes that electricity created using uranium and devices of various sorts will replace the fossil fuels that are burned to make electricity. This is a much more generous approach than the IEA and the EIA use. The IEA and EIA tend not to report prompt, all fuel, indications. If they did, they would show higher percentages of our energy use being from fossil fuels than the 82%
Heat energy and transportation energy are largely what the world economy uses. Electricity is not well adapted for either. The whole idea of scaling it up to replace the rest makes no sense.
Good find, Gail and also B. Let me add that even if high temperature reactors are developed (perhaps up to 700C), they are not going to be close to those temperatures (at least 1300C). They need another factor of two on the celsius scale (not happening).
“Nuclear Infrastructure and Radioactive Threats in a Post-Collapse World”?
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2025/04/01/nuclear-infrastructure-and-radioactive-threats-in-a-post-collapse-world/
This post discusses the rather significant possibility of nuclear meltdowns in the years ahead. One of the problems discussed is the harm that the Russian invasion did to the containment structure a Chernobyl, and the monitoring devices.
Our human models of the future assume that everything will be the same, forever. We even assume that we have control over what is ahead. I don’t think any of that is true.
I believe that there is an Invisible Hand, working to keep the whole system going. It may be that higher radiation levels are part of this new plan. I don’t think that we will be able to do anything about the existing devices and spent fuel, no matter how hard we try. They are a lot like climate change, in that regard.
Somewhat a piggyback on Gail below.
The world is very complex, it has grown that way for billions of years, biology for say 3.7B years. It is a not unreasonable bet that it will continue to evolve and become more complex, but not without bumps.
Dennis L.
It might happen to some species in some faraway star but not to two legged animsls on earth.
Under the new leadership of “BlackRock Merz”, the last bastion of fiscal discipline converts to the American model of debt-based “financial growth”. Unsurprisingly, huge amounts of capital are now pouring into German equities – the highest influx since the pandemic bonanza. The spectre of Weimar, it seems, is no longer haunting the country.
https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/rearmament-the-charade-and-the-game-of-chicken/
If Germany doesn’t have access to adequate energy supplies, more debt can be tried:
According to the article:
A relevant comment about the US approach, compared to the German one:
A point is made about the Europe’s strange transition from concern about CO2 emissions to the new interest in war-like behavior and more debt. Perhaps this can be “green,” too.
I notice that the US 10-year interest rate is down to 3.907%. This helps a bit, but is nowhere near 2%.
Maybe AI energy use won’t grow as fast as planned:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/microsoft-scales-back-ai-data-center-projects-us-australia-uk
Trump’s tariffs
All tv debates in Italy are talking about this great threat for the global economy.
The main point that journalists and economic experts raise is that very soon Trump will face people’s discontent and also the one of the stock market.
Everyone says: “look at what happened with eggs ! Trump will have many american consumers in trouble who will soon protest against him”.
And also: “look at Wall Street! People involved in stock market, finance and banks will soon protest against him! See what happened todat to the stock market indexs .
They all say: “give him one month and you will see how he will change idea! Trust me.”
Actually, I think that there are good reasons in the long term for US to do what it is doing, but it is true that there may be some real problems in the short term.
All reasonings made by journalists and economic experts exclude the fact that all goods need huge amounts of oil and gas to go from one part to another one of the world.
They think that goods easily come and go like with Star Trek teleportation.
But they need fossil fuels to do so and they are not infinite and also forever easy to extract.
They completely ignore this point.
So, I wonder how can US avoid this intermediate period, that can really be problematic with public opinion.
In my view one good way could be another emergency like it happened with Covid, war in Palestine or in Ukraine.
So, I wouldn’t be surprised if a war with Iran could start soon or also another surprising event like Covid that no one would have ever thought of.
What do you think? Any idea?
This American is happy and will vote for Trump a forth and fifth time.
I urge Trump and Elon to air drop supplies to the freedom fighters of UK, France, Germany, Italy.
Long live Le Pen and AfD.
What use is freedom?
Trump will capitulate; he is a coward. He is already talking about taking back tariffs.
He is tough as hell, he has survived attacks which would have caused most men to sell out. Agree with him, disagree with him, he is damn tough, or “Takes a licking and keeps on ticking.”
Dennis L.
Uh, those fake ‘attacks’ were designed as a reminder to him that his only job when They say jump is for him to say how high? His shoes came off and his ear was pierced: see the Old Testament for the parallels.
Denise , 75 days into the presidency — no arrests , no inquiries , no subpoenas’ nothing . Only executive orders for the low hanging fruit . 100 days are on 1st May and then the honeymoon period ends . I am disappointed with Trump , I thought he would have learnt some lessons from his first term and the 4 years of fighting ” lawfare ” unleashed on him by Obama and company . I guess the swamp is just too deep . Bad luck for us minions .
Dennis, Trump has been “pelted” with more “stones” than a Saudi Arabian adulteress, in the courts, in the halls of power, and in the media—as well as by Norman, who sums up the fears of many ordinary sensible people. Mere mortals cannot survive that level of firepower. That’s one more reason why I have to say that I think it is all theater and the top politicians are closer to being “actors” than to real power-holders.
I put it to you that everything on the upper levels of the ziggurat of US politics is scripted and all the main roles are played by actors, making US politics, at the federal level at least, one big reality TV show.
This hypothesis explains neatly why so many comatose or brain-dead geriatrics and so many airheads among the younger members are able to remain in positions of “power”.
When I say they are “actors”, there is an aspect of role-playing in that they are allowed to ad lib to a certain extent but not to go off the reservation to the extent of coming up with their own policies. I am not saying they don’t have influence. I am thinking of them as frontmen/public representatives or delegates of groups who form policies that they have to carry out.
Trump may have had a voice it forming the policies he is pushing, but the policies would have been decided by a consensus of all the members of the group that controls Trump’s role.
Same with everyone else in Congress.
So Trump didn’t just wake up one morning and decide to announce 10% tariffs for the UK, 20% for the EU% and 34% for China, for instance. He may have woken up one morning and been told that the Tariff Committee had issued a report that recommended he should announce these particular rates.
Being part of a big group takes away a lot of the stress that would come from being a truly independent leader—a sort of Evil Emperor who decided everything by themself and then ordered other people to do his bidding.
Also, I don’t think there was a serious assassination attempt on Trump’s life in Butler. There are a lot of clues, but the fact that the event was televised live when just about all of his other public appearances were not is one giveaway, and the fact that a photographer “caught” the bullet in midair is as miraculous as the fact that Trump turned his head at the precise moment he needed to do so in order to avoid the shot, as if pulled out of the way by an angel, add supporting evidence.
But then again, I don’t believe JFK was assassinated in Dallas, either. No way would he have been riding in an open car in such a situation at a time when he was on so many people’s enemies list. But that’s a whole new conspiracy theory.
A one in a million shot, just like the grazed ear, but wait, this is hollywood and so the photographer that caught the bullet on film, was also the photographer that took the almost hollywood stage set picture of Trump with defiant raised fist. Imagine getting 2 one in a million pictures mere seconds apart(only in hollywood). Given the events leading up to the theatre and how it was then all forgotten so quickly, it’s a wonderful example of the complete control of thought in the supposed high iq parts of the world(almost as if iq tests are more a test of compliance training than real intelligence).
The president of peace just bombed Yemen again and said this about the victims
“These Houthis gathered for instructions on an attack. Oops, there will be no attack by these Houthis!
They will never sink our ships again!”
https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1908300360810479821
He even includes a video of his slaughter of civilians meeting, as they do each and every year for Eid. The men always meet unarmed as a sign of trust.
Of course all of his actions are aimed to take the eye off of the industrial scale slaughter of children by the schizophrenic Yanks and Europeans squatting in Palestine, were the slaughter is being intensified massively to facilitate their final solution.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/trending/we-wont-make-it-time-people-gaza-post-farewell-messages-online
Ed, there is a time for the old to move over, it is change and that is never sure.
Dennis L.
Like old delusionists who still hold on to udeas from 1970s SF?
What about the Twenty-second Amendment?
The covid lockdowns is what happens when a world superpower does not have the means to start a conventional war with a country it considers its rival. Industrial conventional weapons seem to have peaked in terms of production. In order to produce more of them, I suspect we’d have to have a wartime rationing economy.
So, barring that, “I don’t know what weapons might be used in World War III. But there isn’t any doubt what weapons will be used in World War IV. Stone Spears.”
-Albert Einstein, 1949 “
I agree. I don’t think that the US or anyone else has weapons to fight Iran, right now.
That could be a good news.
Anyway I’m still concerned about the way western leaders (expecially EU and US ones and who support them) will chose to keep calm and under silence their populations.
Because China, Russia, Iran, Korea act in a different way.
Western Countries, instead, need artificial narratives to manipulate population make them to accept sacrifices that arrive because of Leaders’ mistakes or also because of impossibility to do something useful to avoid collapse.
The average western person still believe to be free and leave in democratic countries, so leaders will go on deceiving population till they can, because it is the easiest way.
In Italian there is a bad way of saying of a particolar area which I prefer not to mention the place, which is:
“fai prima a metterlo nel c. a una persona, che a metterglielo in testa”.
Therefore I still expect a bad trick.
I hope not of course
Western countries have invested a lot of money into constructing narratives.
Psychologists and sociologists are employed in the private and public sectors to manipulate public perception towards important topics.
This kind of employment is never discussed about when job prospects are discussed for these fields.
“Trump is doing mirror-world tariffs: tariffs without industrial policy, tariffs without social safety nets, tariffs without retraining, tariffs without any strategic underpinning. These tariffs will crash the US economy and will create calamitous effects around the world: “?
https://pluralistic.net/2025/04/02/me-or-your-lying-eyes/#spherical-cows-on-frictionless-surfaces
This post has interesting insights:
The author also talks about Economists, and their assumptions:
Even in this write-up, there is no acknowledgment that inexpensive-to-produce oil supplies are limited. Of course, this is what causes the problem.
When Mike Shellman says something we must perk up our ears .
https://www.oilystuff.com/single-post/the-end-of-common-sense
This is a very good post. I am afraid I am not good at such colorful language. Mike traces the types of oil and prices over the years.
A couple of excerpts:
and
Of course, this is pretty much all we have left.
Agree, which is perhaps why so much money is being poured into Starship; the stuff is up there, easy to use energy is up there which if used on earth would pollute our spaceship earth.
The big money knows there is a significant problem, some of the big money is ahead of the curve.
Musk has a new robot out, as a bridge they can probably drive tractors, trucks, etc. A bridge until purpose built robots are made.
Per Copilot:
“Tesla’s production time for each vehicle varies depending on the model and factory, but on average, it takes about 6 to 10 hours to manufacture a car. Recent innovations, such as Tesla’s “unboxed process” and increased automation with Tesla Bots, aim to reduce this time further. For example, the production time for Model 3 and Model Y vehicles has been cut by 20-30% in some factories, bringing it closer to 6-7 hours per car.”
My guess is Robotaxi will dominate, it can be used 100 hours per week vs 10 average for a personal auto. Rollout rice is targeted below $30K. This means auto transportation has an effective cost of about $3K. One is purchasing the service, not the depreciating item.
Dennis L.
Not owning a vehicle and relying on others to provide transportation is putting someone in others’ mercy
Your worship of musk is clouding any sound judgment you might still be retaining.
My guess is Robotaxi will dominate, it can be used 100 hours per week vs 10 average for a personal auto.
It can’t be used at all because it doesn’t exist.
Thanks ravi. I find it humorously tragic when peak oil commentators think that the fracking industry has been a series of idiotic mistakes instead of what it obviously is, which is the exceptional means by which the lifespan of global civilization has been extended for 15 years. Shellman knows that without fracking keeping this civilization on an undulating plateau, we wouldn’t be talking about fracking on the Internet right now, yet he blames fracking for stealing market share from OPEC. Go figure.
The low interest rates and available credit for the last 15 years have made tight oil from shale available. Otherwise, it would be in even worse shape than it is.
OPEC has its own production problems. It basically needs high prices to make extraction profitable enough to keep the OPEC countries going.
It is amazing to me that the whole system has stayed going as long as it has. The collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union saved a lot of Soviet oil until later, helping the world economy along. I believe that there is an Invisible Hand, helping the economy along.
Yeah, the low interest rate new-sector bubblenomics made shale possible along with a total disregard for the environment and — perhaps most importantly — it is my understanding that the Dallas Fed permanently halted mark to market valuation of fracking assets as necessary back in 2011, but someone correct me if I’m wrong about that permanency. That’s a permanent, unconditional bailout.
Appreciate that explicit endorsement of the Hidden Hand, Gail. You just said what I was thinking about an hour ago: this civilization’s unexpected ability to cope with Peak Oil has amazed all of us hawkeyes for 15-20 long years, and that doesn’t happen by accident let alone a structural loss of common sense as Shellman’s thesis would have it. On the contrary.
As you implied, there are pros and cons to every hidden machination, but that’s life in general when not lived in abundance: shale ‘overproduces’ in order to float the civilization and revenues suffer for every producer except fracking on the permanent bailout. But that’s the lesser evil. And it’s the job of the various political feathering mechanisms to micromanage the stresses, back and forth, such that major market dislocations don’t take hold. Mister T’s tweetstorms were one of the primary barrel-price feathering mechanisms during his first term.
Part of what made fracking possible was the absurdly optimistic view of future oil extraction that the bankers and accountants agreed to when estimating future extraction. If I remember correctly, they expected that the wells would be productive (to a limited extent) for something like 30 or 40 years, with virtually no extra expense.
For sure big-time confidence play lol what else is new? Dems and repubs were all jawboning a 100 year golden age when individual well production were down by half at 18mos as I recall and we were all shouting Red Queen! Still, fracking lasted (is lasting) way longer than I was sure it wouldn’t, so hats off to them. Props.
This simply MUST be happening. It kind of makes sense if that invisible hand has provided the banking system, and wants it to go on a little longer.
It probably makes certain that oil and gas remains available and affordable in order to keep the rest of system alive. Why would it not?
Conversely, there will be a moment in time when no matter what, the energy simply runs out for many. Is that when David Webb’s “The Great Taking” suddenly occurs? After all, someone has to pay for all that relatively free energy which has brought along nearly everyone for a debt filled ride.
I’m thinking this goes for another four years or so, before the Invisible Hand does the Great 5 Finger Discount
There will be no Great Taking imo because of Steve Ludlum’s (Steve from Virginia) First Law of Economics: “the costs of managing any surplus increase along with the surplus until they exceed it.” Taking/stealing industrial assets while industrialism is collapsing is self-defeating, especially if it causes violent backlash. That said I’m a deflationist and do expect Elite savers to take advantage of that for pennies on the dollar while the getting’s good but that’s no Great Taking.
https://www.economic-undertow.com/2012/08/01/debtonomics-jubilee/
I think that the system tends to go down quite slowly and smoothly, without a Great 5 Finger Discount. Perhaps there will be a big die-off, from a seemingly unrelated event that keeps the situation from looking too bad from humans’ point of view.
Right now, the financial system seems to be moving from growth to shrinkage. I think that that will be a big deal, but I am not sure how it will play out. The many lay offs will go along with it. I expect the number of workers and students at universities and colleges will start falling, quite quickly, for example.
Governments may try to cover up the shrinkage problem by increasing the money supply, to try to keep the system operating as usual. (Or governments may change the rules, regarding what constitutes a solvent bank or pension plan.) Or deflation may be the result. Or electricity may be so intermittent that we really don’t understand what is happening.
Laughing quietly:
Gail, that is a lot of “ors” to deal with, could we shorten the list a bit? I do not deal well with multitasking.
Dennis L.
There won’t be anything to take. Everything we believed was an asset will be worthless.
Absolutely no sarcasm:
God planned it that way, He has a very large universe and is very busy; no reason to change things until absolutely necessary.
Starship launches again next week, no matter what it will be a learning experience.
Recognizing the seriousness of our predicament, perhaps if there is a small leak which might lead to disaster, He could put his finger on it and pass a note to the lowly engineers in charge of rocket engines.
We must go forward, the path back is gone forever.
Dennis L.
Humanity has gone back many , many times
Your argument is no different than that of a gambler who loses every day but always says he will win tomorrow, while leading everyone around him to ruin.
Smart money is not that smart.
How were tariffs calculated ? FUBAR .
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/04/white-house-lacks-financial-literacy-tariffs-show.html#more
I am not sure that the methodology is as terrible as Moon of Alabama makes it seem. It is imports of physical goods that need to be cut back.
One of the big services that is now sold abroad is tourist services. This does need to be cut back, too, and I am sure it will be, partly because many people are poorer, and partly because of reciprocal tariffs.
We desperately need the enriched uranium we receive from Russia, so it makes no sense to cut that back with tariffs.
We need truly huge tariffs against China because many of their exports (solar panels, EVs, consumer goods) are greatly undercutting our costs. China is also very far away, using more oil for transportation.
Uranium shortages helps set the stage for the necessary decommissioning of the nuclear power industry in a couple few years.
Id also submit that the tariffs, as with most Elite management practices — and as with the fracking industry I just talked about in the other comment — are mean to look publicly stupid but are, non-publicly, brilliant. Orwellianism cuts both ways. On the forex tip, the Elites need to weaken the dollar with tariffs because deflation is coming and a relatively weaker dollar will somewhat mitigate the damage of the flight to the dollar. It’ll slow down other currencies’ hyperinflations on one side and the dollar demand on the other.
We always figured that the coming great depression would knock out more than the 50pc of international trade that was lost during the last great depression due to higher complexity and terminal energy shortages, right?
Welcome to inverted perestroika.
This is likely to be true. Trump’s policies are framed as something the same exact elite that is supposedly against Brexit also say that consumption needs to be drastically reduced in order for human civilization to be sustainable.
Sustainability and reducing debt are the same thing being pitched to different people.
Both things require a reduction in living standards but no politician or influencer is presenting those things that way.
in order for human civilization to be sustainable.
It isn’t and can never be sustainable.
” Welcome to inverted perestroika. ”
That ‘s a new one for me . 👍
If the tariff is (deficit / trade volume), then the
total amount collected = tax rate * volume
= (deficit / volume) * volume
= deficit.
Obviously they calculated a tariff to zero out the trade deficit. This makes sense in a first-order way.
Denise L . Do you know how to read a balance sheet ? Do you know about contingent liabilities ? Do you know anything about how the satellite industry functions ? Obviously not . Read this and go to your basement or cave whatsoever .
https://wlockett.medium.com/starlink-is-doomed-cf850ed43031
Yes, I read balance sheets easily, thank you.
I have stated many times Starship is not needed for anything in the near term, Falcon 9 works very well. I also stated that the satellites might well be much cheaper than land based systems with ground leases and utility bills, indeed once had Copilot do a rough calculation of those costs. The satellites are solar powered. Think of the satellites as an initial investment making a return sufficient to build Starships. This is not uncommon in emerging businesses and Starship is an emerging business.
Starship only makes sense for manufacturing in space and mining metals which have a sufficient margin. Pt would be one of those metals, Cu may be another.
Gail has convinced me we are going to have issues with BAU; I prefer to look for options rather than sulk in a basement, thank you.
I have made a guess and stated it a number of times that some group seems to see serious issues in the near term. Musk owns 42% of the company, other interests per Copilot:
“Founders Fund: A venture capital firm led by Peter Thiel, holding about 10.4% of SpaceX.
Fidelity Investments: Owns around 10.2% of the company.
Google Ventures: Holds a 7.5% stake, following a $900 million investment in 2015.
Other investors include Baillie Gifford, Sequoia Capital, Valor Equity Partners, and Capricorn Investment Group
Again per Copilot, Sequoia Capital:
“The firm operates globally, with regionally focused entities such as Sequoia Capital Operations (U.S. and Europe), Peak XV Partners (India and Southeast Asia), and HongShan (China). As of 2022, Sequoia managed assets worth approximately $85 billion.”
These guys all have good track records and as I have mentioned here and elsewhere, Musk keeps going at it at a very rapid pace suggesting a near term need. Inference is sometimes helpful.
Should you care to dig deeper perhaps:
https://brandsownedby.com/who-owns-spacex/?form=MG0AV3&form=MG0AV3
Thanks for your comments and taking time to read what I wrote.
Dennis L.
I cited the name of Daniel Ludwig, the richest man in the world in 1980 who spent $2 billion, or about $100 billion now, in the Amazons with nothing to show for it and few people remember him now.
Track records did not matter for Ludwig, who came from nothing and built such fortune only to piss it all away in the jungle.
I do not watch informercials. All of them are just rich people pissing their money away because there are no good investment opportunities. It might impress you, but not me.
“Ultimately his agricultural ventures on that land were not successful. Neither the rice nor one variety of trees took well to the region’s soil.” Biology and climate are b—-. This is the ultimate futility of the human effort that this site gets at. Ludwig acting on the belief that willpower could overcome the biology of the plants he was trying to raise.
Now, we have gmo crops, but I am not aware of any gmo crops that can grow in poor quality soil and in harsh environments. Plant growth is still largely regulated by evolution and climate. I think genetic engineering has been a big dud . Artificial intelligence has a worse record than artificial intelligence.
*genetic engineering has a worse track record than artificial intelligence.
Disagree with genetic engineering, biology has quite a history of adaptation even if the engineering is done by trial and error; or is there a finger on the scale? That would be the ultimate engineer.
Dennis L.
@Dennis L.
Whether you disagree or not does not change a thing that genetic engineering is not as effective as advertised.
You believe every single informercial by self promoters trying to sell their stocks . I do not.
“Plant growth is still largely regulated by evolution and climate. ”
Yes, much truth to that, biology, always biology; it adapts.
Dennis L.
Our new high-yield types of seed are not very resilient, if necessary water and nutrients cannot be supplied.
Facts and reality do not matter to the cornucopians who really believe their own delusions as being real.
I am afraid what this video is saying has some truth to it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtbAfUxCJA4
It is called “The Job Market Just Collapsed–The Middle Class is the Target.
sees massive consolidation of wealth up to the rich in the next few years, and AI squeezing out a whole lot of jobs.
Big organizations will step in and buy the homes, and rent them back. Value of labor keeps falling. Silent collapse rolling out in real time. We will live in a two-tier society.
The speaker sees massive consolidation of wealth up to the rich in the next few years, and AI squeezing out a whole lot of jobs.
Big organizations will step in and buy the homes, and rent them back. Value of labor keeps falling. Silent collapse seems to be rolling out in real time. We will live in a two-tier society.
Just like the world before 1914, before Gabby Princip thought his country, Serbia, was worth existing.
You seem to be very fond of
The Iron Law of Wages.
The puzzling thing is that you think
you are part of the elite.
I think you are laborer in denial.
You also seem to think all the elite
will behave like Europe’s towards
the end of the Middle Ages. Tomorrow’s
elite may have no interest in science
or leaving the planet.
>> I think you are laborer in denial.
Stockholm syndrome, perhaps
Per Copilot:
“The job market is not collapsing, but it is showing signs of slowing down. For example, U.S. employers posted 7.6 million job openings in February 2025, which is a decline from the 8.4 million openings a year earlier. Hiring rates have also decreased compared to pre-pandemic levels, and job seekers are finding it more challenging to secure positions2. However, layoffs remain low, and unemployment rates are still relatively healthy, indicating that the market is stabilizing rather than collapsing.”
I still see signs for help wanted, there is no help in the country.
Your thoughts?
Dennis L.
Copilots do not need jobs.
Shitty jobs are still available. Few civilized people will take such.
I am sure if you had any offspring you won’t want it to get such jobs.
The weakest link in the chain , Stellantis stops production in Mexico and Canada .
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/auto-tariffs-pump-brakes-jeep-owner-pauses-canada-mexico-plants
On the Wall Street Journal header, I see that a lot of indicators are down this morning.
Dow -3.41%
S&P 500 -4.08%
NASDAQ -5.35%
Russel 2000 -6.58%
Crude oil -7.74%
Bitcoin -6.11
Ten-year interest rates are also down. Should theoretically help mortgage rates. Low oil prices should help consumers, but will deplete supply of oil.
Not important except for speculators . We individuals would think twice before taking out a 30 year mortgage or a 5 year car loan . At Least those who have a roundhead on square shoulders — as to the rest , what is there to say . Oil prices again manipulated — KSA needs $90 to run the show , posted earlier . ” Nothing bad happens , till it happens to you ” . All be well .
Saudi Arabia needs more than $90 per barrel to run the show. It also needs revenue for taxes. I would guess that it needs $110 per barrel. Other countries, especially Venezuela, are worse off than this.
“Regarding nothing bad happens, till it happens to you,” there are an awfully lot of people with pensions or annuities of various kinds, including Social Security. If these get cut way back, there will be a problem.
A lot of people are taking multiple prescriptions of many kinds. I can easily imagine drugs of many kinds becoming less available.
https://zena.aktualne.cz/celebrity/zena-reality-show/reziser-vymeny-manzelek-byl-odsouzen-kvuli-sebevrazde-ucastnika
“In August 2020, a tragedy occurred during the filming of the next episode of the reality show Wife Swap. On the eighth day of the exchange, a police officer whose household was visited by a Romani woman from Olomouc committed suicide by hanging. The Opava court has now ruled that the director of the show, Jan B., was partly to blame for his death, as he was supposed to have forced the police officer to make racist statements in order to make the show more attractive to viewers. The court therefore gave him a 20-month prison sentence suspended for two years. The sentence is not yet final.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
Gail again, solar energy is intermittent and thus presents what could be problems, food storage for example. So I asked Copilot with a bit of nudging.
“That’s a clever and energy-efficient idea! Using renewable energy like solar power to supercool food storage during sunlight hours and then “storing the cold” in well-insulated systems could help reduce reliance on electricity during non-peak times. It’s essentially like building a giant, highly efficient thermal battery for refrigeration.
This concept, often called phase-change cooling or thermal energy storage, can use materials like water or specialized fluids that absorb and retain cold energy. By freezing these materials during the day using solar energy, they slowly release that stored cold overnight to maintain low temperatures.”
Why didn’t I think of that, phase change during the day; I think that is basically the freezing and thawing of ice. Back in the day railroads had large ice houses close to rivers and in the winter men would saw ice and store it in sawdust. They didn’t even know they were so tomorrow with “phase change.” It even took advantage of reduced solar insolation.
So deliver a super cooled hamburger to the home with suitable warning to have it thawed out from say -32 degrees C.
We need solutions, we need optimism, we need to create and find ways to transition to tomorrow with today’s engineering. We are biology with a long history of evolution and survival, my bet is on man doing very well indeed.
Robotaxi could be very useful for moving other than human passengers. Anyone think Musk might have thought of that?
Give Musk credit, story goes he was down to his last Falcon 9, the others had crashed and when asked what to do, response was something like “Push the button, it will be a learning experience.”
Dennis L.
Musk may have even figured out that Electric Vehicles are not the future. Where will all of the electricity come from to run them and the materials to build and maintain the transmission lines? Obtaining continued credits from sellers of ICE cars can’t be counted on, either.
In many areas solar can be used locally to recharge the cars, probably with interchangeable batteries. If these vehicles are used as robotaxis the utilization often can increase ten fold which makes a very nice increase in return on capital. Only need one set of lines for each car. Musk’s manufacturing is impressive, BYD seems to be doing all right as well.
The day of the individual owning cars may be over. I do not own a pickup, I rent when needed, if I need more I hire a real truck. It is much cheaper than a $70k truck plus tags and maintenance plus of course fuel.
As always, I do read and think about your writing. Perhaps my conclusions are somewhat different, but I have made my living on my own efforts for more than fifty years; making mistakes is very costly.
Dennis L.
My husband and I took an Uber to the airport on our last two trips to the airport. It worked so well that there we may not drive to the airport again. My personal vehicle milage is way down.
We have been flying and taking Ubers at the other end.
If he has figured that out, than he must know that there is no tech fix for our predicament. I don’t see him promoting horse and buggy development with stone age “technology”.
I see some evidence of him trying to exit commerce altogether, and enter politics.
Nothing is more recession-proof than politics.
Agreed: “Nothing is more recession-proof than politics.”
Politics also gives power. If that is what he is really after, politics is a good choice.
”Nothing is more recession-proof than politics.”
Add the ” 3B’s”
Booze , Brothels and Burials . 😁
We don’t need delusional ideas which won’t work and hucksters who sell their image to gain political power, as well as their sycophants.
Bringing home the bacon more efficiently with a bit of Pt.
Asked Copilot about robotaxis equipped with last “feet” delivery, order from home, delivered groceries to home.
“The idea of robotaxis equipped with “last feet” delivery machines is intriguing and entirely feasible given current technological advancements. Here’s how it could work:
Equipped Delivery Modules: Robotaxis could have automated compartments or delivery drones attached. These machines would unload the groceries and either navigate up to the doorstep or use conveyor-like systems to drop them off. This would save customers from carrying items themselves, reducing effort and time significantly.
Efficiency Gains: By eliminating the need for the customer to travel to the supermarket, load groceries into a car, and then unload them at home, you’re effectively cutting the delivery process in half. Pairing this concept with advanced route optimization technology could also reduce delivery time and energy use.
Lights-Out Supermarkets: Fully automated supermarkets—where robots manage stocking, picking, and checkout—could streamline the process further. Customers might use online platforms to order, and automated systems would handle everything from inventory management to packing. “Lights-out” operations are already being tested in warehouses, so applying the concept to grocery shopping seems plausible.”
I get this stuff from Gail, oil is becoming unaffordable, we need local transportation so look at the process, bringing home the bacon so to speak.
Thoughts?
Well, of course, we need more Pt, but a lesser amount.
Dennis L.
Unfortunately, we are likely to lose complexity. Complexity is what guides AI. It is important for Robotaxies.
Perhaps some small parts of the world can trend in the direction of more complexity, but I have a hard time seeing the US or Europe heading in that direction.
I vote with Musk, when down to the last rocket, push the button and see it as a learning experience.
Optimism, biology has worked so far.
I see this site as very useful in ruling out what will not work, there are very strong narratives which cling to fully depreciated ideas; it is going to be bumpy.
Dennis L.
Hopefully, you’ll have a place on the last rocket to Mars when him and his 13 or 14 children settle there..
Biology has worked so far…until it doesn’t…the J curve
Sorry for the misunderstanding, I have no interest in going into space nor Mars.
The reference is to the development of Falcon9 which had repeatedly failed, the last one was the end of the money, so they pushed the button and it worked.
Sometimes when all is lost there is personal risk in trying, but TINA.
Dennis L.
No misunderstanding…it was all in jest..
You and me are old boomers…the space rocket is for the children..
Michael C Ruppert also mentioned he did it for “the children” at the end..
RIP …you were a true warrior..
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rEMpFsFPhJ8&pp=ygUlaXQncyBhIGdvb2QgZGF5IHRvIGRpZSBsaXR0bGUgYmlnIG1hbg%3D%3D
Dennis, at this juncture are we really into solutions or outcomes?
Reply to Mike below, solutions or outcomes.
If there is only a small chance of outcomes, then the only bet is for a solution. The outcome is basically failure, collapse, total loss.
I say we push that button.
Dennis L.
Yep, good a pushing button, that takes a lot 👍…we are doomed…no chance, but if it keeps you posting and hoping.
Fine with me
“Over and above the potent biological urges (and their cunning socio-cultural patina), to which I have myself succumbed, there is no social safety net in somewhere like DRC, and having lots of kids is the closest people can get to insuring themselves against poverty in their dotage.
Humans are going to keep overshooting until they can’t, so we may as well try to make our peace with it.”
From comment by Harry on his blog..
“ . . . to establish the difference between a problem and a predicament, noting that problems have answers or solutions but predicaments only have outcomes. The other primary goal here is to establish the fact that all of our modern environmental issues are symptom predicaments of a root predicament – ecological overshoot. Name almost any issue – climate change, pollution loading, energy and resource decline, biodiversity decline, extinction, food and water security, etc. – and one will discover that these aren’t “problems.” They are symptom predicaments of ecological overshoot – without reducing overshoot, they likewise cannot be reduced. . . . “?
https://erikmichaels.substack.com/p/the-psychology-behind-the-misunderstanding
Simpler solution:
When a boy there was literally a store on the corner one house from ours, up the street two blocks there was another store(groceries), to the north three blocks there was a store, further north say 6 blocks total another store, going north less than say 1.5 miles max there were two or three more stores I can recall.
Mom and Dad “walked” to the store for groceries of one of the stores, “Freddie’s” delivered same, free no less.
No one in my childhood memory was fat, no one in yearbook pictures(I was the photographer) was fat save maybe one or two.
I shall skip the obvious aspect of women’s roles except to say, they had ladies’ aid which was derided by many. It seems to me that much of our culture change was secondary to advertising showing “more” which made “more” money for a few and made “many” slaves to CC debt. Liberation is a word sometimes used as hyperbole.
Dennis L.
You write from a time when fewer cars were in use.
Zoning laws were less strict. Businesses were built near homes. People walked to businesses and grocery stores delivered. Women tended to stay at home with their families.
But then, the use of automobiles expanded. Bigger stores were built at the edge of town, often with lower prices. The little stores in town mostly turned into gift shops and tattoo parlors. Populations became more diverse. People didn’t know each other as well. The whole way of life changed.
Women had to go to work to afford to have a family. Now, the amount women can earn hardly covers the cost of child care plus an extra automobile. Having two children becomes a luxury.
The reason we can’t go back is because the elites for some reason despise that way of live and constantly release propaganda to demonize that way of life–no different than a new religion constantly disparaging the previously dominant religion.
The way of life changed because society is under the management of different elites than before.
You may very well be right about these things. It is the narrative that keeps changing to justify why the new approach is better than the old one.
Somebody, I think Trump, said the American way of life is nonnegotiable.
The cornucopians here think whatever contraptions they are floating will guarantee the American style of life, or better, to the hoodies in the big cities or the denizens of Appalachians and the Ozarks.
I want to ask, why?
Why waste resources on such kind of people, and at least 200 million unnecessariats who are not likely to add anything to civilization?
Whether they like or not, a massive reduction of the standard of living for about 90% of the denizens of the so called first world, and 99% for the rest of the world, is inevitable. The cornucopians will try to imagine away such big arrangements, since they are comfortable for now, but within this decade that will be the case.
One source says that “The American way of life is nonnegotiable,” was first said by President Bush in 1992.
https://themacweekly.com/61550/archive/bush-the-american-lifestyle-is-non-negotiable/
I do remember that well myself, Bush also urged people to go out and consume and buy/purchase to help BAU…great stuff
October 11, 2001
User Clip: Bush shopping quote
Bush Oct 11 2001
https://www.c-span.org/clip/white-house-event/user-clip-bush-shopping-quote/4552776
That was his Bush Junior….the apple don’t fall too far from the 🌲..
Keep demand up! That is what keeps prices up, and the system running.
This approach works for a while, but then it comes to an end.
Big if true, saw this posted on X, but I don’t have Telegram to verify myself:
https://x.com/peacemaket71/status/1907629849692270703
“🇨🇳 CHINA | 🇷🇺 RUSSIA | 🏴☠️ NATO: China will intervene militarily on the side of Russia anytime and anywhere if NATO officially enters the war against the Russian Federation.
We believe that everyone will understand this principle.
Chinese Minister of Defense.from Telegram”
It’s possible. Wang Yi has just been visiting Moscow. Xi will be guest of honour on May 9th and what a way to complete the celebrations signing that would be.
During his visit Wang Yi gave an interview and was quite bold with his words, which I take as direct warning made public.
“Those who live in the twenty-first century and think in the stereotypes of a zero-sum game cannot keep up with the times. China-Russia relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation have withstood the test of international turbulence, they are at the forefront of the times, as inviolable and strong as Mount Taishan. We fully understand and support Russia, which defends its legitimate rights and interests through diplomatic means.”
And then he came out with it
“Each country inevitably faces different challenges in the course of its development, and all countries have their own reasonable concerns. But still, the key to solving problems is ultimately in your own hands, not in someone else’s pockets. Washington, instead of fixing its own problems, is trying in every possible way to relieve itself of responsibility, to shift it from a sore head to a healthy one, resorting to the introduction of duties, up to the use of blackmail and an ultimatum. The US is sick itself, but forces others to be treated. This will not help solve the existing problems, and it will also cause serious damage not only to the global market and trade order, but also to the United States ‘ own reputation. “America first” cannot be achieved through American harassment, especially to the detriment of the interests of other countries.”
“If the United States does not stop all kinds of pressure, even blackmail, our response will be the most decisive.”
Those lasy7 words are, I believe, the exact same words that Iran gave in reply to the ultimatum they received.
It’s worth reading the whole interview, as for such a precise man to choose the wording he has, is in itself a clear message and that theme goes through every answer.
https://williambowles.info/2025/04/01/wang-yi-relations-with-russia-are-an-important-factor-for-stability-in-a-turbulent-world/
China is dying out, India is here, too. There are many things from the past that are becoming a myth.
Largest population, largest industrial base, “dying out” … no. Their median age is about the same as USA and they are relatively homogeneous, which is better for unity.
He and Norman read the same dailies.
Countries with resource inadequacies will go to war, based on any excuse. It gives a distraction, and an excuse for more debt. Young people can be hired as soldiers. So the result is not surprising.
Yes Gail, I agree, but concerning Europe I see it difficult for it to send young people to war, because EU has been destroying for years the concept of nation (and so the concept of ‘a nation to defend’)
A young European asks oneself: what exactly do I have to defend, being myself a citizen of the (green)planet?
And EU has also been destroying for years the concept of being a male (and so the concept of being a brave soldier).
A young European male asks himself: why exactly do I have to go to war if I can surfing in Portugal or clubbing to Ibiza?
EU has only made a good job pushing to the extreme for years the concept of being a free woman, which can have some positive effects (and some negative ones) for women, but definitely women don’t go to war with some good propaganda, they cannot be easy manipulated like young men about being brave and heroic, showing their courage and their force…
it can happen that can be raised a small number of Amazonas (female) warriors like in ancient Greece, see for instance the character like the mithological queen Antiope and her assistants, but not much than that…
By the way, Eracle and his friends submitted all of them and married with (or something else to) Antiope and her assistants.
Has ever someone asked oneself why Israel don’t send women to the front in combat environments and use them only on the backfront?
Because they know this ineluctable truth.
With whom could EU wage war ?
With German tanks built in Volkswagen plants guided by AI made in UK ?
You raise good points.
Europe has been up against energy limits to a much greater extent than the US. In such a situation, it needs a narrative that will work around the limits it is seeing. All of the government programs for people have made people think everything is fine. But, of course, these cannot last.
I think of the World Economic Forum as being very much influenced by Europeans. They have helped push the new narrative.
Good luck to the European fascist leaders in convincing white German youth to go fight and die while immigrants overwhelm their country and they will not fight.
All the EU has done is move Berlin to Brussels, and it is now run by little Hitlers.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/germanys-stern-magazine-calls-conscription-young-people-take-arms-defend-diversity-pro-war
Adolf protected whites, Brussels kills whites. White Germans should consider moving to the US or Hungary or Russia.
Nuclear and Currency .
” In the current context, even ignoring the depletion of resources, it is clear that a revival of nuclear power is simply, completely impossible. Moreover, the development of nuclear power was only possible because military budgets covered a large part of the development costs. ” . Patrick Raymond . Use translator .
https://lachute.over-blog.com/2025/04/nucleaire-et-monnaie.html
Some excerpts:
“Nuclear power requires major infrastructure work for extraction, but also for processing and using uranium, and then for storing the waste. So, it’s a bottomless pit.”
(Gail: By the way, I would point out the EROEI analyses completely miss this dynamic. They also miss the point that the interest payments on this debt are terribly important, too, and that the payback must be fast enough.)
Another quote:
“To quote Wikipedia on debt money:
“Investments with ‘slow, but very long-term, profitability… are of only very moderate interest to commercial banks and financial markets.” Jean de la Salle cites among these inadequate housing, the railway network, waterways, etc. Derudder believes that ‘it is appropriate… to complete the current economic system with the aim of resolving, regardless of their financial or accounting cost, the human and ecological problems that capitalist and accounting logic alone is inherently incapable of addressing.’ ”
(Gail: If these investments are of huge benefit to the economy as a whole, they seem to work. Initial roads available based on easy access to coal or oil, for example. Intercontinental railroads. Canals. Pipelines for oil. Having extremely low need for capital, and government support, seem to be important. Quick payback once the investment is available.)
“Generally speaking, US reindustrialization is doomed to failure. It’s the Carabosse fairy that is the reserve currency, especially debt currency. The easiest thing to do is create debt. Nobody wants to build factories. A host of so-called environmental associations are systematically against it, and it takes 20 years for them to become profitable. A period that’s far too long for shareholders who demand 15% returns when, over the long term, making 1% is already a performance.”
(Gail: That is definitely part of the problem. No wonder investment in nuclear stopped.)
“Moreover, the development of nuclear power was only possible because military budgets covered a large part of the development costs.”
(Gail: Patrick Raymond ends his blog with this issue. I think it is a huge deal. In fact, a lot of the build-up costs have been paid by Russia, and by the storing a whole lot of uranium in concentrated form, as nuclear weapons. We are losing access to these because the supply is running out. The US completely lacks many items in the supply chain needed to reprocess nuclear waste into materials needed to power nuclear power plants. Without new uranium mines, this approach would probably be needed. )
A friend of mine was laid off a month back. He does front-end (graphical user interface) software development, which is one of the areas most affected by recent AI developments. There’s a new trend: “vibe coding”, which basically means you tell the AI what user interface and features you want, and it does a pretty good job with straightforward tasks.
Thank you for explaining “vibe coding”.
It’s the latest thing promoted by Youtube grifters.
For a minute, I thought vibe coding was about the vibing cat.
That is very funny 🙂
Is she evangelist or something like that?
The ones who are supporters of Israel, correct?
We end up with a lot of programmers losing their jobs. This is not a good deal for programmers.
It took an expansion of $10 in credit to produce $1 in GDP.
https://mishtalk.com/economics/how-much-credit-expansion-does-it-take-to-grow-real-gdp/
Ravi, IIRC 2008-2019 it took four dollars of credit to generate a dollar of growth (3.75, if I remember correctly). so we are nicely on schedule. I suppose 2025-2030 it will be 25 to one.
This is precisely the problem we would expect, with too much debt and too little inexpensive to produce energy resources.
America Is one continent, Eurasia Is one continent. The current tariffs are like Great Britain leaving the EU: a simple math.
The worsening situation of the US was clear since 2008: a beacon of worldwide atomization and economic downturn.
The US food industry is like the Soviet Union food industry before 1989: heading towards collapse of the mega farms.
Elon Musk was just a symbol of space aspirations that were a part of the communist propaganda in the Soviet bloc.
No MAGA, but Make America Small Again, i. e. more costly cars means less transport.
Transporting bulky and perishable food like fruit becomes economically impossible:
https://youtu.be/vuwr1DVvEBo?si=fFAn8Y4_ftKpNokn
We do think of US as a slave plantation. MASA, mass-sa works.
I am afraid you are right:
“The US food industry is like the Soviet Union food industry before 1989: heading towards collapse of the mega farms.”
Also,
“No MAGA, but Make America Small Again, i. e. more costly cars means less transport.”
The mega farms and the concentration on mega monocultures is simply unsustainable:
https://youtu.be/6M4HwF3tU5g?si=bnx1gumgh7kcCfJ8
The costs of making food cheaper become astronomical.
The fact that the quality food is not cheap is unavoidable.
More AI – auto insurance.
Copilot:
“Estimates suggest that around 95% of civil cases, including personal injury claims from car accidents, are resolved through settlements. Insurance companies often prefer settlements to avoid the costs and uncertainties of trials, while claimants may accept settlements to save time and effort.”
Ignoring material damage to auto, AI may make fraudulent claims much more difficult which would be deflationary for insurance premiums. Combine AI with the large number of video cams in cities and faking it may become very difficult.
AI makes it cheap to investigate claims.
Looking at how AI will change our world, not the obvious, the subtle. Programming looks to become extremely easy if one can put forth problems logically, AI may even solve that.
Not rose colored glasses, looking forward for how it affects us now.
Somewhere I may have a post up on autonomous lawn mowers, about $1.3K, cheap, the same electronics will work on farms, different mechanical stuff, same electronics. This is coming fast.
Does it increase or decrease oil usage?
Dennis L.
“Trump announces sweeping new tariffs”
https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/tariffs-trump-news-04-02-25/index.html
“Shooting ourselves in the foot”?
Do the tariffs apply to imported oil? I see on the chart Saudi Arabia has a 10 percent tariff.
This does sound worrying! Any big change is a worry. There is not enough to go around of a to of things. The US will get less.
The US will use its military to take from Canada and South America. Maybe Nigeria and Libya? Maybe the gas fields of Norway and Palestine? Is China willing to fight to keep Iran and KSA?
Who gets AU coal? China or US?
no one ever shot himself in the foot by just rearranging the chairs on the deck.
No, but when the chairs are electric, tons of people can get fried rearranging them in a sinking ship.
Only when all are mad!
Humans in a panic are known to act madly.
In fact, we tend to act madly even in times of wine and roses. I’m affraid reason is not our forte.
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
— George Carlin
Will it allow Black Rock to own all manufacturing in the US?
No, biology is necessary for economics, children are part of that formula. Manufacturing is a team effort and the players change places even on the largest of scales, think Intel. Once a powerhouse, now much less, it missed AI and from what I can see ARM processors do the job rather well. ARM I think only licenses, it does not manufacture.
Your thoughts?
Dennis L.
Google says
Arm, known for designing chip blueprints, is reportedly shifting its business model to manufacture its own chips, potentially targeting data center servers and AI infrastructure, with Meta as a potential early customer
Okay, AI, RTK at home.
Amazon has an AI mower for about $1.3K; what is there to lose?
I am seeing the lawn mowing services, a truck goes down the street, a small ramp drops in front of the house, a mower emerges and goes after the grass. Truck circles block, stops at homes, drops ramp, collects mowers, changes batteries(recharged with solar energy of course) and moves to next block.
I built a “toy” which would follow a line and avoid crashing into walls although it did crazy circles to avoid that; what do you expect from an old man? Incredible technology from toys.
Have been head down in electronics at a local CC, fellow in Germany I think built his own, code on GetHub, etc., small “beginner” mower as a base for the hardware(Raspberry Pi) and software. A raspberry Pi has more computing power than a 5.5 ton cray of the seventies and can be had for say $150 Amazon, mail order, fits in a mailbox.
These are revolutions coming up close and personal, this technology is incredible and it is accessible and my guess is the Amazon unit uses open source; the Chinese are supposed to be very open source and claim it increases productivity of the group.
I know, the world is going to end any day now, I have posted on the accuracy of predictions, oil has a fifty plus year hx of predictions, they were all off by as of late 35mbpd, rounding error.
Many here see doom, I see opportunity. Seriously and not sarcastically what makes our conclusions so different?
My life has not been easy, started out as a boy in a former whore house; that is a neighborhood of challenge. Still, I look to the stars for stuff to replace what we have already used. Can’t resist, “starry eyed?”
Dennis L.
Another child’s play with no lasting changes
All these computing power for a no brainer task
Kul,
There is money in grass, no pun, sort of intended. Labor is hard to maintain, gas mowers are maintenance intensive, require weekly oil changes.
Cutting grass is very computer intensive, it requires a good human brain with good eye hand skills otherwise the shrubs are so much mulch.
AI is fascinating and it makes looking for ideas which are footnoted trivial. In my day we had a stack of note cards for such research.
The “toy” I made for class could avoid obstacles autonomously. This is a very old man with a $150 computer and some python code along with direct wifi between a laptop and the Raspberry, no internet between. What can be done is incredible, far from trivial.
Dennis L.
It is true a lot seems to be possible with little equipment, but will this kind of ability be put to work on extracting oil more quickly and cheaply, or coal or natural gas? That is the kind of thing that could make a real difference.
Perhaps AI could make some resources economic that are not currently economic. The catch however is that mechanized tools are needed for things like extracting oil. We need to be on good enough terms with China to buy a lot of stuff from China, and perhaps Russia, as well, if such a plan is to work out.
Gail, basically I accept your thesis on oil; so I look elsewhere.
1. Were we to find a growing source of oil do we want to burn it? This is a wonderful spaceship we are on, perhaps not pollute the inside with more carbon.
2. Since oil is depleting, since more oil can be a risk to our planet, time to move on.
3. Starship does not make sense for any current/near future need. Mars is romantic, radiation between earth and Mars and life itself on Mars is very problematic.
4. Man went to the moon in large part because it could be sold politically much more easily than machines, Voyager is an example of a machine which worked very well.
My thesis:
We cannot pollute earth much more and it is not worth the risk. Politically we need some solutions which minimize conflict which means more “stuff” somewhat evenly distributed(if one doubts this, try living in one of America’s inner cities, war zone 24/7 with massive drug use to dull the pain.)
The only near term engineering solution appears to be H, even if burned in an IC it is cleaner than diesel(did not fact check that one), we need a certain very useful element, it is out there.
Starship makes getting into space economical, that is an entirely different game. We can move pollution off earth.
Now, how do we feed earth? That is not an obvious Pt solution, loss of topsoil is real and at a replacement rate of a dime’s thickness per year there could be some very thin years. The oceans are being fished out. I shall leave the food problem to others; but we must preserve our dirt.
Dennis L.
“started out as a boy in a former whore house”
Dennis, I worked with a guy who grew up in a house of ill repute in Nevada. He told us matter of fact stories where he would walk in the interstitial space where they had one way windows into each room and he could watch the goins on.
I have never used copilot and have no intention of doing so. So I wonder how it would fix this piece of mess
kul,
Interesting, you miss the obvious: manufacturing is done robotically in space ignoring all pollution to gain efficiency. Jupiter is a metaphor, nudge the waste wherever, it makes no difference. Jupiter is a poetic touch.
— I do not miss anything since there are no manufacturing done robotically in space at all. It costs energy to ship the robot and material to the space and somehow bring it back to the earth to be useful. I can’t miss something which does not exist.
You are missing AI, you are missing StarWars like droids exploring the universe in huge numbers. droids manufactured in space by droids using fusion energy(I simplify it for you, that is photovoltaics with ultimate source of photons: fusion on/in the sun).
— I am not missing it. All AI does is just child’s play done with using lots of power which could be put into something more useful. There are no Starwars like droids exploring the universe in huge numbers, no droids manufactured in the space to begin with, and no droids using fusion energy, which does not exist, to do anything. I am not aware of photovoltaics having anything to do with droids; just putting a bunch of gobbledygook does not make a post intelligent.
Were you in the time of Ford, would invest in horse stables.
— Horse were useful long after Ford’s days, and horse stables became parking lots. Not bad investment.
You are a narrative, narratives need only be self consistent; outside factors are ignored. When reality is encountered(understood) by the narrative it collapses.
— Outside factors do not show any reason for me to change my narrative, while none of the things boasted in this piece exists except in the mind.
This site focuses on the depletion of earth metals, oil, coal, etc. They are so yesterday.
— They are today and tomorrow, we are stuck on the earth for the time being, with none of the imagined unicorns and dragons coming online at all.
Dennis L.
— Ask copilot how to fix this. Would like to see.
Well, we agree on one thing, I think we are stuck on earth; biology has significant problems in space and one of them may well be successful self replication – a viable child.
Robots will be seen.
I don’t have opinions, I ask questions, make observations, throw them out and see other’s opinions, thoughts.
This is a time of incredible change, our job is to make it from one side to the other and maintain a sense of humanity.
Dennis L.
In other words copilot is not advanced enough to bullshit its way around this mess.
Your stories here are interesting for some people who still want to cling on hope, no matter how tiny it might be, but not really beneficial for the discussion of resource depletion.
kul, with a bit of humor.
Your eyes are toward the ground, mine towards the heavens.
Dennis L.
Like someone who walks with his eyes looking at the stars and trips over all the time?
laughing quietly,
Angles kul, angles do all the guiding.
Dennis L.
There are no guiding sngels and if there were any they did a crappy job.