There have recently been many warnings about near-term oil shortages stemming from the conflict in Iran. Most analysts assume that shortages mean higher prices. As I will explain, the dynamics of a self-organizing economy suggest the opposite outcome — lower prices, deepening recession, and shortages of goods and services that have little to do with price.
Rather than high prices, my major concerns are recession and the disappearing availability of goods and services that we rely on. This might be similar to the empty shelves that many stores experienced in 2020 and 2021. There may also be new government restrictions, intended to work around the reduced oil supply in a way that will allow essential services to continue to operate normally. Oil prices are likely to fall below $40 per barrel, as they did in 2020 with Covid restrictions.
In this post, I will try to explain why this counterintuitive outcome — shortages leading to lower prices rather than higher — is what the self-organizing economy tends to produce. Along the way, I will look at the current state of oil reserves, why the conflict with Iran is unlikely to be quickly resolved, and what the price behavior of oil since February 28 tells us. I will also step back to consider the broader picture: why war can seem like a solution to struggling economies, and what the 2020 Covid experience might teach us about what lies ahead.
[1] Reserves of already-pumped US oil have dropped to concerningly low levels.
On June 17, President Trump said, “We will run out of reserves in about four weeks without a deal.” According to the article, we are not certain whether Trump intended to apply this statement to US or world emergency reserves.
Also, according to this recent video, the US’s largest tank farm seems to be very close to the minimum level at which crude oil can be withdrawn from its tanks. And, on June 23, MSN said, “America may see actual gasoline shortages by July 4.”
The already-pumped oil in storage is intended to be used as a buffer if there are variations in supply or demand. The reason that these buffers are falling low is because considerable oil from them has already been used to mitigate the shortfall in crude oil supply to date.
The shortfall in the supply of crude oil supply cannot be expected to disappear quickly. There has been considerable damage to infrastructure in Iran and elsewhere. It will take years rather than months for this to be repaired. In countries where oil production has been shut in, some wells are likely to produce less after being reopened following many months of closure. Furthermore, Iran has no incentive to completely reopen the shipping lanes, since keeping them potentially closed has the potential to raise oil prices per barrel. Higher oil prices would help the finances of Iran.
[2] Perhaps because of concern about low buffer supplies, the US has negotiated a deal with Iran that seems unfavorable to the US.
Information keeps coming out that indicates that Trump’s current Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) is very favorable to Iran. It looks as if the MOU has been written as if Iran won the war. We are also seeing that other countries have begun acting as if Iran has indeed won the war. For example, on June 23, a joint statement was issued by Iran and Oman. The two countries seem to be co-operating in setting up the collection of funds from ships passing through the strait to cover insurance and other costs.
If we are dealing with a “done-deal,” and the US is coming out poorly, the level of conflict within the US is likely to rise. Many people will be angry with Trump for getting the US into the war to begin with. Unfortunately, there is likely close to nothing we can do about this situation.
[3] Trump or another leader cannot restart the war against Iran and expect to do any better.
A major problem is that the US has substantially depleted its ammunition supplies, and it will take years to replenish them. While the US could perhaps launch a short attack, it would not be able to carry out a sustained campaign for very long.
Another issue is that the armaments that the US has stocked to date are designed to be used in a different type of war than the one that is being fought today. The US needs drones and close-by locations from which to launch them. Iran damaged most of the US’s bases that are close to Iran in the conflict that began on February 28. Without substantial rebuilding, the US has no functioning bases close to Iran from which to launch such drones.
Restocking armaments will likely take several years, especially if new types are needed. Adding to the difficulties of the US is the fact that China has been the primary source of many critical minerals used in the production of high-tech goods and ammunition. In recent years, China has restricted access to these critical elements. The US is now developing mines for some of these minerals, but setting up entire supply chains will take years.
[4] One motivation for attacking Iran might have been to raise oil prices to a higher level.
Based on their models, economists typically reach the conclusion that inadequate oil supplies will lead to high oil prices. It is likely that President Trump and his advisors believed that inadequate oil supply would lead to high oil prices.
Some analysts, including me, would argue that the models of economists are very inadequate; they give misleading indications by leaving out the complex self-organizing nature of the economy.
Higher oil prices are sometimes desirable because they encourage more oil extraction. For example, higher prices allow marginal wells to continue to be profitable longer. They can also make a new, higher-cost source, such as tight oil from shale, attractive for drilling. Looking ahead, higher oil prices would make it easier to get oil company support for ramping up oil production in Venezuela.
Figures 2 and 3 show the connection that higher oil prices seem to have had in encouraging tight oil extraction from shale. Figure 2 shows historical oil prices, adjusted for inflation. Noted on this figure is my view of whether prices were high enough to encourage extraction from more difficult locations.
Figure 2 indicates that prices started to run up in the 2003 to 2008 era, when China started ramping up its manufacturing, and thus its demand for oil. In this same timeframe, there was also a growing demand for housing in the US, thanks to very liberal underwriting standards for home mortgage loans. Thus, the total demand growth for oil was very high.
Figure 3 shows that production of tight oil started ramping up in 2009, after oil prices had been rising for several years.
Another factor in the growth of tight oil production was the availability of cheap credit after 2008, but this has tended to disappear since 2021. Now, tight oil production seems to be leveling out, leading to rising concerns that tight oil production may soon decline, especially if credit is no longer cheap. Having higher oil prices might help postpone the decline of tight oil.
[5] Oil prices since the war started on February 28 have not bounced very high. Recently, they have tended to fall back, close to their pre-war level.
The first thing to note is the fact that the prices on Figure 4 do not reflect the actual prices to the consumer, which have often been greater. The cost of transporting oil has jumped in many markets, but this higher transport cost is not reflected in the “West Texas Intermediate” price of oil, displayed in this chart. These higher prices at the pump have led some of the more price-sensitive buyers of oil products to cut back on their purchases.
Second, there is a lag issue regarding how soon the impact of missing supply actually hits the market. The slow transit time of oil from the Middle East to markets means that the actual disruption of supplies did not hit until at least 50 days later. If crude oil first needs to be processed by local refineries and then the oil products shipped to customers, the lag would be even greater–perhaps 75 or 100 days in total. Thus, much of the price increase to date may be based on a fear of shortages, rather than on an actual shortage issue.
Third, there have been some changes that impact oil “demand.” Some consumers have been told by their governments to work from home or otherwise restrict their driving to save on oil consumption. Also, some flight schedules have been cut back. Recently, Ukraine has been targeting some of the oil infrastructure of Russia, leading to reduced gasoline and diesel availability within that country. All these issues have tended to reduce the demand for oil. The lower demand acts to hold down oil prices.
A fourth issue has to do with worldwide economic conditions before February 28. Even before the war, much of the world was in close to a recessionary situation. There were very many low wage earners who could not afford much beyond the basic necessities of life. Even a small run-up in oil prices tends to affect food prices because oil is often used in farming operations and food is usually transported to market using oil. With higher food prices, poor consumers were forced to cut back on other purchases. This recessionary dynamic can be expected to get worse if oil prices inch up even a bit.
[6] I expect that oil prices will continue to remain relatively low, or they will only briefly rise to high ($150+) levels, even if there are actual oil supply disruptions.
I expect that the dynamics we have been seeing since February 28 will continue, and may intensify. Governments will add new restrictions that will reduce oil use. Airlines will go bankrupt, or they will reduce flight schedules. Recession will become even more of a problem. These issues will tend to reduce usage without raising prices.
[7] What we may see more of is broken supply chains.
There will be more signs in grocery stores and in home product stores saying, “This product is temporarily unavailable.” Car repair shops may tell us that a required replacement part will not be available for several months. Physicians may tell us that a medicine or chemotherapy drug that they normally use is, at this time, unavailable.
[8] The operation of the economy depends on an adequate supply of many kinds of energy. If oil supply is reduced, an economy needs to shrink to a smaller size to match. This is what leads to recession.
One reason for the above observation is that we know that our own vehicles will not operate without whatever fuel they are designed for. This is clearly also true for all the delivery trucks in the world, and for farm machinery and for ships that transport goods across the ocean. With less fuel, fewer trips of many kinds will be made. Workers will be laid off. This dynamic sounds a lot like recession.
The expected lower world oil supply in the near future is not an issue that can easily be resolved. We are already seeing that even with a supposed settlement, disruption in oil supplies seems likely to continue and even to worsen, as the various limits on buffer supplies are reached. Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to be completely fixed for several years.
Furthermore, the economy is facing even more disruptions than I have outlined above. For instance, Ukraine has been disrupting Russia’s oil infrastructure with drone attacks. There have also been disruptions to sulfur exports from the Middle East. Sulfur is used in many ways, including as a fertilizer and in the production of sulfuric acid, which is used in the mining of uranium, among other things. In addition, there have been disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from Qatar. The lack of these important products will tend to further damage supply chains and lead the economy deeper into recession.
[9] We are ultimately dealing with multiple not-enough-to-go-around scenarios. This situation will tend to increase conflict in the world.
The dynamic we are dealing with is similar to that in the game of Musical Chairs.
The game of musical chairs is played in rounds. Players walk around the edge of a circle of chairs while music is played. When the music starts, the number of players is equal to the number of chairs. In each round, one chair is removed. The music plays and then suddenly stops. The players must then scramble to grab a chair. Since the number of chairs is now one fewer than the number of players, small fights can ensue.
The problem is basically, “Not enough to go around.” War often sounds like a reasonable solution to leaders.
[10] War can seem like a solution.
Strangely enough, war has multiple advantages to economies that are suffering from difficulties related to low commodity prices and, indirectly, low wages in related industries. One commodity is food. If food prices are too low, farmers will be unhappy that their earnings are low. They may stop farming and try to make a living from putting their land into a land bank and working elsewhere.
If oil prices are low, the oil industry can experience pockets of low wages. There have recently been reports of lockouts and strikes in the oil industry. I would expect these labor actions to be most prevalent where oil fields are depleted.
If a government announces a war, it looks like the government is “doing something” about the country’s problems. There is suddenly employment, either as a soldier, or in building armaments. GDP tends to rise because the war leads to a larger share of the population working. The war can be used to justify the additional government debt needed to hire the additional workers. What convinced me of this relationship was this chart, showing a huge increase in US GDP during World War II:
Looking closely at the chart, it is also possible to see GDP increases during the Korean War (1950-1953) and between the time the US entered the Vietnam War, deploying up to 549,000 soldiers, and the time the US greatly reduced its forces there (1964-1969).
I think much of Europe is now in a situation in which war looks like a solution. Russia may also be in such a situation. Ukraine, with its problems, is also in such a situation.
[11] There may be lessons to be learned from the 2020 Covid restrictions and the ultra-low oil prices that resulted then.
Back in 2019, many people in the financial world were concerned about the economy. In 2019, the US faced significant financial issues, including a budget deficit that increased by $205.4 billion to $984.4 billion. In addition, in September 2019, there was a spike in the interest rates financial institutions charge each other (repo rates) that concerned those who followed financial markets closely.
What took place in 2020 seemed to some of us to be close to miraculous. The strange actions related to Covid greatly brought down the price of oil. Covid also provided an excuse to give money to households. US government debt was able to increase greatly, and, somehow, the world economic system has held together until now. Financial problems were “kicked down the road” a while longer. Without the pressure of financial problems, the economy could work on ways to mitigate the energy problem a while longer.
Economies are self-organizing systems, just as the human body is a self-organizing system. Both are powered by “energy dissipation.” Human bodies tend to heal wounds, like magic. Economists talk about an “invisible hand” being helpful to economies. In situations where the healing of economies does occur, low oil prices can be part of the magic.
[12] What might be ahead?
We are again in a period when the US and world economies are on shaky ground. Debt levels are high, and conflict levels are high.
As I have discussed in this post, I expect the general trend in oil prices will be down, rather than up. The major reason why oil prices are likely to be low is because, with the damage done in the Middle East, the quantity of oil supply available to the world is starting to shrink. As a result of the low oil quantity, the world will produce fewer goods and services. This is close to the definition of recession! (Also, on Figure 1, this is why we expect Wile E. Coyote to fall down, rather than to float up, when his support disappears.)
I expect as oil product shortages hit, local leaders will figure out ways to mitigate the oil bottleneck that the world now seems to be facing. Local leaders will enact rules that make certain that whatever oil is available is used to maintain essential services. It will not be surprising if local leaders keep people at home, using one excuse or another, to keep oil demand in line with the quantity of oil that is available. This is a big part of why oil prices will tend to be low, in a manner similar to 2020.
With low oil prices, I expect that inflation will be low. Pressure to keep raising interest rates will disappear. The economy will not be doing well, but the issue will not be high interest rates preventing new investment.
In my opinion, the world economy needs to reorganize with shorter supply lines to get through the oil “tight spot” that the economy is in. If supply lines could mostly be kept within the areas marked on Figure 7, it seems like a significant amount of transport fuel could be saved.
The conflict with Iran doesn’t seem to be ending well for the US, but there might be a silver lining. The pain the US is experiencing in Iran will hopefully teach the US to stay out of issues in the Eastern Hemisphere. If a conflict with Iran is to ramp up again in the near future, I expect that it will be a European group that will be getting involved, not the US.
We don’t know quite what is ahead, but the experience in 2020 shows that a strange confluence of events leading to low oil prices can actually be helpful. Let us hope that a similar result will be possible this time.
Sportsmen as dissipative structures have shorter and shorter lifespans:
https://sportnet.sme.sk/spravy/mma-allan-nascimento-umrtie-34-rokov-infarkt-ufc-2026/
https://share.gemini.google/FpXtVPXpi9QS
The Core Paradox
The modern athlete is asked to be a living engine driven to maximum capacity. But unlike mechanical systems, biological dissipative structures cannot simply swap out damaged sub-components indefiniely. When society demands higher performance, faster speeds, and endless competition, it naturally shortens the functional lifespan of the human system sustaining that performance.
I understand high school sports have become increasingly competitive, too.
MMA = popping pills like there is no tomorrow..
Still probably get more work done in that shorter lifespan though it’s wasted on recreational pursuits
Romania redirected the drought-stricken Danube with explosives and by sinking rock-filled barges in order to maintain enough flow to their NPP so that they can keep going the last remaining running reactor . Ten minute video.
https://youtu.be/8wtJO-6ryI4
Thanks, was not paying attention to news lately, only about the general situation few weeks ago as they went on close alert per cooling in HU/RO.. and FR.
Blasting Danube up for NPP surely makes the summer season finale.
Strange world we live in.
Nothing about the universe is sustainable.
ai//
Supernovae do create new stars — but only in the relatively short “stelliferous era” of the universe’s history. When a massive star explodes, it can trigger the collapse of nearby gas clouds, leading to new star formation Wikipedia+1. This process is essential for enriching the interstellar medium with heavy elements and for recycling matter into new generations of stars.
However, heat death is not about the end of all star formation. It is the long-term fate of a universe that continues to expand forever, driven by dark energy newspaceeconomy.ca. In this scenario:
Star formation eventually stops because the gas needed to form new stars becomes too diffuse and cold to collapse into new stars Wikipedia.
Galaxies lose their ability to form new stars, and existing stars burn out one by one.
Black holes, which are the final remnants of massive stars, slowly evaporate via Hawking radiation over timescales far longer than the current age of the universe newspaceeconomy.ca.
Over trillions of years, all usable energy gradients disappear — no more nuclear fusion, no more gravitational potential energy — and the universe reaches a state of maximum entropy where no work can be done newspaceeconomy.ca.
So, while supernovae can “create” new stars in the early and middle stages of cosmic history, heat death is the inevitable end of that process. The universe will keep expanding, stars will die, and eventually, even the remnants of stars will fade away, leaving a cold, dark, and energy-dead cosmos Wikipedia+1.
//
Unless, as Gail has stated, we have a deus Ex Machina moment.
We need many deus Ex Machina moments to have a happy ending.
Unless more and more energy continues to be added to the overall system, as seems to be the case. Where does it come from?
By coincidence, last night I watched a bit of this incredible NP show and recommend it in every way, fascinating on how the human mind can conceive the concepts that understand how the universe “works”.
After viewing this I realize how insignificant we really are…..oh well
Since I strongly suspect that the universe is toroidal and thus recycles itself — with heat death theory rationally existing because it can only see the currently expanding and accelerating area of the universe that we inhabit — toroidal theory would say that the universe itself is theoretically sustainable but that each cycle life itself is by definition unsustainable because life and death are symbiotic.
The Universe could be shaped like a Big Donut according to some cosmologists, but you’d need four-dimensional eyes to have a chance of seeing it as such. Yeah, why not?
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/08/03/the-end-is-nigh-for-the-us-empire-nay-the-end-is-here/
Yesterday, Treasury Secretary Bessent was photographed with a “To Do” list that read: “Buy Japanese Yen (JPY) 5-10 billion dollars.” You don’t scribble a ten-billion-dollar currency intervention on a notepad for a routine meeting. You do it when the world’s third-largest economy is about to detonate the global bond market.
While the U.S. military has run out of the munitions to sustain an air campaign, the U.S. Treasury is running out of the credibility to sustain a financial one.
The Bessent “leak” is not an isolated event. It is the first visible crack in a dam that is about to break. The U.S. Treasury does not conduct coordinated currency interventions for routine turbulence. They do it when the system is hours or days away from a cascading failure.
The military situation and the financial situation are two fronts of the same war. The U.S. cannot sustain the military campaign because its fuel and munitions are depleted. The U.S. cannot sustain the financial system because its credibility and the patience of its creditors are depleted. Both are manifestations of the same core reality: the post-1971 petrodollar order, which depended on cheap energy and subservient creditor nations, is dissolving.
The war is ending. The financial system is ending. What we are watching now is the final act of both.
it could also be a Band-Aid to give us a lot more time or it could be the Lehman moment but the article says that 2008 was engineered unless it wasn’t if that is the case which is what I think it is this will give us some more time until the next crack in the dam.
the intervention in the hormuz strait was obviously an attempt by the elders to give us a lot more time in scale of years.
unfortunately cracks are appearing in the damwhich require an occasional band aid.
A friend who owned a moderate-sized hedge fund at the time also believes that 2008 was quite deliberately engineered.
Those very low interest rates which came in the wake of the GFC kept things going for quite a while, didn’t they?
Jim Quinn writing with AI now lol. It’s a cascading failure alright.
It could be that the yen is so cheap these days that the really smart brilliant money is salivating at the prospect of making a killing as it starts climbing faster than one of Elon’s rockets!
Or not.
But it’s very reassuring to know that the dependable Mr. Trump has got Takaichi’s back, so Japan’s Argentina moment will not come this evening and BAU baby! can go on a while longer.
And that you, Tim, the stout yeoman of the paddy fields, will have a market for your crops!
If you look at the USD/JPY mid-longer time spaced graphs, they are now clearly into defending some ~140 value line threshold fortress. Because if that is breached then it all ~free falls and much serious [ globo effort ] will be needed – easily expecting at that point $Ts had to be flying into/from keyboards d/d ..
That’s why I asked HHH recently direct how is he playing it ( if possible by us mere mortals not on the trading floor ), which instruments ( be it tangentially linked ) with leverage benefiting from the continued support for JPY or not ..
I mean the classic panic stuff move once in a decade, i.e. at least 150-300% gain in a few months ( mind you pros are targeting ~20-50x gains in such events ), not some %pennies un-synced with he elevated risk. And pls. no crypto and other nonsense. Perhaps ~velocity shorts on some funds over-extended in specific kind of real estate hard to bail-out quickly or leading depression type of industrials ( chem biz. in Asia , .. ) ?
Otherwise, why bother, I’ll rather plant more food.
As mentioned before every decade+ these mega-trend tremors inside the system are identified before hand ( by some minority / elite splinter faction ).
This round of Yen intervention was weak. They blew about $100 billion and couldn’t even get it below the levels of the last intervention.
Notice the US treasury has to get the New York FED an actual commercial bank instead of the FED Reserve to step in. That tells you everything you need to know about Central Banks.
No such thing as a petrodollar. There are only Eurodollars. Guess what you do with your Eurodollars could be considered a petrodollar if you bought treasuries with those credits. You can buy anything with those credits. Just understand the vast majority of all dollar credits were not created by US banks.
The monetary system isn’t owned and runed by the US or any government. It’s the Eurodollar banks that issue and control money.
Zerohedge seems to say something similar:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-bond-market-edge-japanese-yields-soar-after-horrible-10y-jgb-auction
” early on Tuesday morning Japan had its first major coupon auction since the latest intervention and it went… catastrophically. ” … “sent the yield on 10Y paper as spiking as much as 5bps higher to 2.87% with JGB futures tumbling as much as 34 ticks to 126.37.”
Kevin Walmsey’s latest video, on the global shipping situation:
Global shipping is a disaster
Panama is having problem for shipping because the water level is low.
Rhine River in Germany is also low, also affecting world trade.
Russian/Ukraine war is affecting exports from the Black Sea.
My comment: If we don’t have enough fuel for routes used in the past, adding longer shipping routes makes the situation worse.
Well worth a watch — “we’re gunna find out.”
What is rising more than anything else with the disruptions around the world is the shipping cost of oil and of food is rising.
This tends to push the economy toward contraction. The affordable cost of oil products to the consumer stays the same. Ditto for the affordable cost of food. But shipping costs are way up. And there is a shortage of fertilizer. Somehow, farmers and oil producers need to get along with less.
Like all the other content hustlers, he doesn’t actually know anything.
The math has only gotten less forgiving since. Restaurants have seen food costs rise 38% and labor costs 35% since 2019, and 45% of operators say they weren’t profitable in 2025, just as restaurant menu prices are up 31% since 2020. Bars are getting squeezed from the insurance side: liquor liability premiums have jumped 25% to 40% in some regions. Movie theaters face a similar squeeze from the real estate side: AMC alone carries more than $400 million in annual interest expense and $850 million in rent, a capital structure S&P Global Ratings has called “unsustainable” even as attendance recovers. When Cineworld filed for bankruptcy, it cited a nearly 30% rent increase per theater in that same 2019-to-2022 window.
Bars, bowling alleys and movie theaters cost too much to run and visit. Americans have run out of places to hang out and we’re paying with our health
Catherina Gioino Fortune
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/bars-bowling-alleys-movie-theaters-090000273.html
There’s even a dollar figure on the fallout: one estimate puts the cost of the loneliness epidemic to the U.S. economy at $406 billion a year, in lost productivity and health care spending alone.
But we have social media to be connected to each other line Fans Only
It is a sad situation.
Without enough growth in cheap energy supply, young people cannot afford to get married and have families. No one has explained to people what the real underlying cause of their loneliness problem is. Many older people experience the same issue, if their spouse dies.
“no one has explained to people what the real underlying cause of their loneliness problem is. ”
No one has explained to them that most countries have an unofficial one child policy?
OnlyFiniteWorlds is still free thankfully. I’m a big fan.
I’m a little fan.
I’ve been told that this partially due to high real estate prices. High property taxes and high rent push exclude a lot of people.
A lot of this was also due to people being convinced by the media that stranger equals danger. People gradually retreated from public spaces aided by expansion of television and later the internet.
Do you actually think all the lgbqtwhatever of the last 20 years being promoted to the extreme is organic? Those who run things realize that the majority of humanity just follows what they perceive to be popular. Make something popular and you can get whatever results you want.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-denies-negotiations-us-after-trump-announces-talks-monday-afternoon
https://x.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/2084180198447010231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2084180198447010231%7Ctwgr%5Efc47469feb7419012f787e7eabd2812d80d8f869%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Firan-denies-negotiations-us-after-trump-announces-talks-monday-afternoon
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei says there are no talks with the US currently, adding that there are talks with Oman over Strait of Hormuz
Baghaei says working with Oman on a temporary safe route through Strait of Hormuz
The BBC reports brown Moroccans were allowed to leave Morocco for Spain but black sub-Saharan people were blocked from leaving Morocco for Spain. A very carefully choreographed psy op.
Imagine that, I noticed that myself in the picture…they looked Spanish.
Oh well. This is what overshoot looks like
More Blacks would not be well received in Spain.
By sharing absolutely nothing to the rest of population and monopolyzing everything for their own pleasure, the elite class before 1914 contributed a lot to civilization.
Which is why the world was closer to Singularity in 1913 than 2013.
To advance civilization it is necessary that most of the people are kept in desperate poverty, just enough to live for another day and not having a pot to piss on, so the labor costs remain next to nothing and the upper class basically having nothing to do with the lower class. (the term working class was not really used until 1970s)
No resources were wasted to better the lot of the unnecessariats, who were destined to exist in miserable and basely survivable status for ever.
The naive idealism of Americans led to the expansion of benefits for the unnecessariats, and I don[t have to retell the whole story.
The social movement before the Covid lockdown was to return to the old era, where the tech oligarchs take everything, with nothing left for the unnecessariats for the world , and the oligarchs advancing to the Type I Civ sans about 99.9% of world population.
That was the final chance to reach next level of civ, without interruptions from China, which should have been nuked to oblivion in 1950, releasing cheaper alternatives and defeating the purposes of oligarchs. China has no shortage of oligarchs, but their interests are different from western ones.
Now the existing world order is in deep trouble, a mass regression is more likely.
The regression to animal for man is looking extremely probable.
Kulm have you seen the movie Zardoz, it is a classic from the 60s I believe we could be heading in this direction.
It stars Sean Connery.
All of such movies are just fantasies for the proles, who are the kind of people who pay to see such movie, that they have a hope
In reality the unnecessariats would have been completely demobilized with no chance of revenge possible
I haven’t seen it, but judging by the plot, it seems the movie Lord Kulm watches through tears every Christmas Eve, or whenever he’s feeling a little bit down.
Immortality (singularity is how Kulm call it I believe) for the elite!!!
IOW, to be the god of your narcisic dreams. Damn if you’re going to dream, dream Big. I like it. Very funny.
Thanks for the recommendation, Adonis. I’ll check it out.
I actually love the movie Threads, where the Scum of the Earth reap what they had sown for centuries.
On the sofa with Kulm, watching the unspeakable trash getting definitively thrashed: a Merry Christmas indeed!
Certainly not ‘The Slipper and the Rose’, the plot of which might give our chum a heart attack…….
Threads ( 1984 ) – the intro plot also involves attack on Iran, hah. And suddenly, in Sheffield they are under n. winter ..
I recall it from 1990s as TV re-run, perhaps there is quality cleaned ~DVD copy nowadays.
The scum and the “cream” of the Earth act exactly the same way—they use as much energy as they can, always in pursuit of More Stuff, which is the only ambition that morons can recognize and appreciate.
The biggest difference I see between the self-proclaimed “cream” and the scum is that the former morons are skilled and intelligent enough to inherit or acquire Big and Prestigious Stuff (say, 15 Lamborghinis and 3 Titian paintings), while the dumbest, laziest, weakest, or most unfortunate morons buy junk made in Asia and can consider themselves lucky, since the oil age has created the richest poor in human history.
To me, scum is anyone who lets themselves be caught by the illusion that to be great is to have loads of shiny things to impress your neighbors and made them jealous.
In this sense, ~91,35 % of humanity is scum.
Who isn’t scum? Off the top of my head: those who seek Truth/Knowledge, those who hold Power, and those who create “things of beauty”.
Other than these, I like an honest or generous person, even if s/he’s stupid or ignorant. Or at least I’d much rather have them than any dishonest intellectual.
Good stuff
” since the oil age has created the richest poor in human history.”
That is a gem .
Well, some folks want to impress chiefly themselves not others, e.g. like having 3/4 of the yr fresh cantaloupes few steps from the door in ~cold climate. Yes, it’s essentially just version of the same ” more ” impulse. But certainly of higher quality, yet lower impact than said silly Lambo collection. Similarly, not sure what say Ursula type is yearning to buy from these kickbacks, perhaps a plastic surgery or brain switcheroo? We are all frail human-oids for ever hunting un-materialized desires of ours.
JMS> but great line about pre-PO world making the richest poor in the entire run of history..
How Green Policies Fuel Fires In Europe
Burned areas are disproportionately nature-protected lands.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-green-policies-fuel-fires-in-europe-a0148698
Under its Green Deal and related policies, the European Union is designating 30% of the continent as nature-protected by 2030. Goals include increasing the amount of deadwood and the density of tree cover in forests. Whatever their environmental merit, such measures increase the amount of highly flammable fuel for fires, make it easier for blazes to spread and harder to extinguish.
The EU also wants at least a third of this protected land to fall under “strict protection,” which means it will be left “essentially undisturbed from human pressures and threats,” according to European Commission guidance. It allows for some natural disaster prevention measures, but only “when such activities are compatible with the conservation objectives of the areas on the basis of a case-by-case assessment,” the guidance says.
But burning is part of the normal cycle. Just as humans have normal lifetimes, forests are meant to burn, if deadwood builds up. California has discovered this problem, as well.
Well but natural beech forests typical for central Europe and beyond store water through their deep root system, while spruce and fir plantations promote widespread fires and die off increasingly due to draught.
Yes, great point, although even these forests say north of Alps are not homogeneous, you get patched areas of coniferous in between on more shallow rocky soil, bedrock and fires there occur as well.. of lower intensity-reach.
Trump did not attack like he said he would. He put the war back on hold. This was after talking to the Crown Prince. Prince must be very persuasive. I can’t tell where this is going and what Trump’s goals are. This back and forth could on for a long time. Trump might stop the war before the midterms to gain votes and keep the congress. But probably already too late for that. The saying is when you find yourself in a hole to stop digging. Sounds like good advice at this point. Remains to be seen. At least, those are my thoughts at this point.
Everyone is in an existential struggle, and most everyone has no good options. MBS can choose between losing a few trillions dollars to confiscation, and veiled treats and impediments have been common for decades, whenever some Saudi would try to repatriate some money, if he decides to make peace with Iran.
Or he loses a lot of infrastructure, including desalination, if he chooses to continue to wage war on Iran. I will say this: with the Kingdom having no income, they must be slowly draining the US accounts (read also selling treasuries) with the US unable to stop that or face having a key ally collapse. But this means time is on the Saudi’s side, at last in their war with the West.
“Trump did not attack like he said he would.”
That I believe is the 10th time(so far), but that won’t stop him doing it again. Caught in the web and no amount of advice will stop him trying to manoeuvre for a better position, even as it becomes obvious to everyone that he’ll just get more entangled, as the way out gets smaller with each desperate struggle.
Iran and Oman are apparently very close to agreeing the future procedure for Hormuz. He won’t like it, but he will have to try to portray it as a win. Maybe even say the new route was his idea.
A false flag? {Oil prices fell on Friday}?
Can you elaborate on that?
Yeah postkey can you elaborate on that please? 😁
Germany has closed the door. No more free travel in the EU. When the AFD threaten to take all your seats in parliament you can change LMAO.
Stupid Germans will then say “okay, I guess I can keep voting for the same party”, which won’t properly enact said policies if they do anything at all, instead of switching vote to AfD who brought the issue to the fore.
Green shoots of reante’s soZIaler NAtionalismus, then?
The Moroccan flash mob sure had an immediate impact lol. What is it, 22 EU countries suddenly in Operation Warpspeed Lockstep and scheduling an emergency meeting among their interior ministers? YCMTSU. Hand waiting til the last minute to snap it’s fingers. Raw power right there.
No it’s the political atmosphere most Europeans feel overwhelmed by the immigration; they don’t want it anymore and are fed up. Politicians have to act quick or lose their jobs.
They’re going to lose their job because of a flash mob on the continent of Africa that was only possible because they could swim to the Spanish exclave? As if the Mediterranean no longer exists? Is the manufactured mass formation in Europe real? I assume so. Look at Zerohedge’s double masking mass formation panic over the issue. Look at drb’s. The world’s on fire and people just want it all to stop. That means the BNS is doing its job breaking them down on the road to the Grand Finale.
The Liberals rightly don’t think a Moroccan flash mob is existential. And they’re the adults in the room. The Conservative populists are putting on their second face diaper because this time they are the collective mark for the second set- piece psyop of the DA. Some think Russia-China is behind the invasion. Some think it’s the Zionists. Some think it’s organic.
Reading between the lines in a novel requires acquiring a feel for the novel. Reading between the lines of geopolitics requires retaining your objective feel for reality. It requires structuralism. To be a rock and not to roll.
Welcome to spiritual warfare. All of the Internet is controlled for the purposes of statecraft. The independent content creators are only there because of The Algorithm that gate keeps.
We are on our own.
Does me saying that we are on our own make me sound like a wannabe cult leader isolating his marks in order to make them vulnerable to suggestion? Sure it does, if you want rationalize a plausible deniability narrative that makes it sound like that. If you want to make excuses for not engaging with metaphysical reality.
Most certainly a contrived event, providing a pretext for desirable changes.
Also, stokes up fear in the populace.
I noticed a lot of those young gatecrashers were barefoot and at the same time they were carrying smartphones. They looked like a rent-a-mob and the whole thing had the unmistakable whiff of a Soros-type operation.
I am seeing the Sikh dagger murder of the young Polish-Englishman and the bearded leftist hammer murder of Ann Widdecombe (whether or not they happened as reported) as part of the same propaganda exercise.
The Hand is working overtime these days to motivate Europeans to vote Social NationalistTM at the next election. I think Reante has been calling this for at least a year now, and he seems to have called it correctly.
“What are you gonna do about it, Whitey?
Just sit there?”
Been calling that for the full 7 years of the DA. Probably been saying online that Farage will be PM for at least 5. Ditto Sahra Wagenknecht in Germany but can’t figure out why she doesn’t seem to have panned out. Some might say Tulsi hasn’t panned out lol. As soon as Tulsi announced her run for 2020 prez, which was about 2 months after the Hubbert Peak lol, and I subsequently heard her name for the first time and looked into her as I hadn’t been following politics for years while getting the homestead up and running, I knew that she was the national socialist that my pre-existing DA theory (in my head, not online) had been waiting for. I was waiting for a national socialist to emerge, and she had the seemingly perfect blend of crossover attributes capable of propagandizing a genuinely populist, left-conservative ànti-mperial unity politics during Collapse.
I like the DA, as an explanatory theory. But the West has been experiencing a slow-rolling Roman-style migratory collapse for 40 years, triggered by internal elite sabotage. Within this larger context, the DA unfortunately becomes just another conspiracy cope to explain the latest outrage.
The DA has only existed, by definition, since we hit the Limits to Growth around the 2018 Hubbert Peak, so your cope characterization needs to either be reframed or discarded.
The rest of your comment about sabotage and outrage has no substance. It’s just political emotion. You call the demographic effects of globalization migratory collapse and I call your politics devoid of systems theory. If you want to discuss it systematically, I’d be happy to.
I am generally in agreement with your thesis, within limits. My gut feeling around 2018 was that ‘something’ had changed globally, as though leaders around the world had all been issued new orders: consolidate power, restrict freedom, prepare for shortages, etc. Something was afoot. The world changed, but few noticed (except folks like us). My point about Ceuta and Melilla is these events are occurring during the DA, agreed, but the general Foederati-esque overrunning of the West, the French Eurabian plans from the 1960s, the US plans from 70/80s (?) to Brazilify the country, Merkel’s open borders into Germany in 2015, all occurred before the DA began operating. They are part of another system level operation. Sometimes an imperial decline apple is just an imperial decline apple, after all.
Thanks. The reframing, then, pertains to the Hand’s approximately 50 year lifespan rather than the DA’s approximately 7-year lifespan.
I would argue that multiculturalism both serves globalism when the rising tide of globalism floats all boats in service of growth-phase MPP, but then when the growth -phase approaches it’s end, the Hand can simply goose that politics of multiculturalism over the edge into a clownshow version that provokes a reaction against multiculturalism, because that is behavior science 101.
Again, the theory Holds that when the Limits to Growth book introduced civilizational systems theory to the Elites — assuming they weren’t aware of it already, which some presumably were — the Hand Project began to be implemented because if I am running farm of 40 acres, the minute I run fence around the whole thing and buy my starter flock, I have to start thinking about and preparing long-term for reaching my maximum stocking rate in the event that I am never going to have the opportunity to buy more acres. And as my stocking rate approaches the maximum, my management protocol is going to progressively change accordingly. To anybody running livestock this goes without saying. When the maximum is reached, you downsize by taking the ones you least want to auction, and you cycle back up again within the limitations of the sun-powered renewable but closed system.
The DA is nested within the Hand’s lifespan so the DA always falls within the larger context but we have to draw the line somewhere, so 2018 makes most sense to me because that’s the Hubbert Peak and like you said that’s also when the new normal started as the consequence of the Peak.
reante, shouldn’t “the hand” have prevented globalization 50 years ago in order to successfully carry out the plan to prevent something terrible from happening?
el mar, globalization is what made the Hand possible.Global financial control.The Hand wasn’t even in its prime, which is the Hand with the one ring to rule them all, until it absorbed the USSR. (Maybe that detail is what Fitz once thought was me saying that the Hand is only 25 or 30 years old.) Hand didn’t have say over the fate of the civilization until its 9/11 coming out party Bar Mitzvah that debuted the Beam for all to see, and in disintegrated those towers, it said to every power bloc on the planet that the Hand is not American, and if it can and will do this to America in order to deal with the looming global peak conventional oil production, imagine what it will do to any other country that so much as looks it directly in the eye of the Hand.
Marvin Harris, the Michael Jordan of cultural anthropology, talks about the soft-determinism of civilizations. They have to keep finding ways to intensify the mode of energy production or collapse. So there was no benefit to calling it quits in the 70s because why would anyone choose to collapse early? 70s complexity was still extremely high. I think it also speaks to the fact that the Hand is not psychopathic. Hand is enlightened and the structural, absolute power it wields transmutes that enlightenment into the same dark enlightenment that I wield over my livestock. Hand has to manage and kill in order to live. The civilization’s survival is its survival, so the Hand loves its civilization and loves its planet on which it’s bugout plans depend, and so it is trying to land the civilization the best it knows how and let the chips fall where they may, and will probably be setting up a few small-scale Hi-Tech bugout options but they’re still just glorified salvage societies with functioning lifespans on the order of decades is my guess.
Reports of Russia hitting Ukraine’s shipping in the Black Sea:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russian-confirms-it-has-attacked-over-80-vessels-black-sea-july-alone
On Saturday Russia’s defense ministry issued some new figures which confirm the greatly expanded scope of its maritime war on Ukrainian shipping.
Russian forces have hit more than 80 vessels believed involved in supplying the Ukrainian military in the month of July alone, state TASS writes based on official defense ministry data. . .
Moscow seeks to sever military supply routes and disrupt arms shipments bound for Ukraine, but this has also obviously resulted in damaged and sunken tankers, auxiliary vessels, and even deaths of civilian bystanders among international shipping crew.
Russia’s military has said that early last week it especially targeted key logistics hubs of Odessa, Chernomorsk, and Port of Mykolaiv (Nikolayev) – with the latter site seeing a docked cargo vessel receiving a direct strike. . .
All of this comes after local authorities in Odessa had confirmed that a foreign-flagged cargo ship, which some reports have identified as the Guinea-Bissau-flagged Golden Leo, capsized and sank near the coast after taking heavy damage from a Russian attack in late July.
A Biden related story:
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/influence-peddler-starving-artist-hunter-biden-claims-family-broke-defaulting-17-million
Hunter Biden is no Van Gogh. In addition to having both ears, Hunter’s work has generally been panned beyond an enabling media following. However, he claims he is also a starving artist. The problem appears to be that, as predicted years ago, his sales dried up in the influence-peddling market once his father left office.
Now, his lawyers want him to cough up $17 million that he owes them. Hunter says that not only is he broke, but so is his family. . .
He also added, “My family doesn’t have any money, and it’s not their debt anyway.”
The statement about his family is curious, since Joe and Jill Biden recently received numerous book contracts and were thought to be worth millions. However, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that Joe Biden is struggling with $800,000 in debt and, ironically, increased property taxes in his blue state of Delaware on his $2.7 million home. (Moving to Florida like many fleeing blue state taxes is not a viable option for the Bidens).
Worse yet, no one wants Biden to do speeches and appearances, cutting off a lucrative post-presidency income.
A new version of TACO:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gulf-states-pressed-trump-to-hold-off-on-iran-strikes-and-pursue-talks-03bcdb52
Gulf States Pressed Trump to Hold Off on Iran Strikes and Pursue Talks
Tehran signaled openness to a new plan to open Strait of Hormuz, mediators said
President Trump held off on a new attack on Iran as mediators made fresh progress on a plan to open the strategic Strait of Hormuz and some Gulf states pressed the president to pursue dialogue with Tehran, people familiar with the matter said.
Trump’s abrupt announcement on social media, posted early Sunday in the Middle East, that he had called off the strikes eased tensions between the U.S. and Iran—at least for the moment.
His pivot was the latest in a pattern by the president, who has swung between dire threats against Tehran and soothing claim.
This is a link the Zerohedge’s article on the subject:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump-says-perimeters-deal-reached-iran-reopen-hormuz-after-call-saudi-crown-prince
“Tehran signaled openness to a new plan to open Strait of Hormuz”
The new plan, is the Iranian plan. How many times have we read Mr Capslock, gobbing off about destroying them(so easy), only to then have his bluff called.
“Under no circumstances will the Strait of Hormuz return to the situation before the war (February 28),”
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/246716/Iran-by-no-means-asked-US-to-not-strike-FM-Spox
On the other other side of Arabian Peninsula, Bin Salman is attempting to revive the stillborn “prosperity guardian” and doing about as well as the US did, so expect no one at all to turn up, but it does give us an idea of the pain AnsarAllah are inflicting.
The Spanish have more than 700 years of experience dealing with the Moors. Congratulation on pushing the Camp of the Saints back.
Apparently 15,000 are still there? Not a win, yet.
I saw a video last year. Some Spanish guy went to his vacation home with his family. And a big huge black African Migrant opened the door and swung a hammer at him screaming “THIS IS MY HOUSE”.
I guess he was squatting and they couldn’t just kick him out.
Here’s the video I found it.
““IT’S MY HOUSE NOW!” — ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT THREATENS HOMEOWNER WITH A HAMMER
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DbYENzTgpDD/
Finders keepers is an excellent example of self-organizing behavior.
I need a hammer a hammer a hammer a hammer to ammer dem down.
If you like a good hammer song, this next one is sensational! Something you can really bang your head to.
That really is a great song Tim thanks, never heard of them. Was vaguely familiar with the other song and expect mum knows it. She turns 80 this month, joining Gail.
Just shouty talking to a loud backing really
Your first one was free but a negative song review means you have to post one you like. Let’s have it then.
Family – In My Own Time
Slip Kid -The Who
Crotch Music – Ronnie Wood
Reante,
I am only 79.
Oops sorry Gail I misremembered.
That is what the guns are for. There are still many places in the world where no one will blink an eye when a invaders is shot in the head. In fact the sheriff and state trooper will show up to do the shooting.
Reante may be a bit young to remember this little ditty, but though she was born a long, long time ago, his mother should know it.
The story above illustrates the point I made to Norman that use of the hammer is an even more basic human trait than the lever or fire. It’s so fundamental that it marks the dawn of man. Where would we be without it?
This illegal immigrant wasn’t stupid! He didn’t try to threaten the homeowner with a lever or a lighted matchstick, did he? And even if he had brandished a crowbar, he would have been threatening to use it as a hammer and not as a lever.
Whoah whoah whoah. As I subsequently insisted in that conversation, a hammer IS a lever leveraging the mass of the head. (I also made the stunning discovery that’s NEVER been discovered before that the wheel is also a lever.) And like I also like to say, everything that the emergent mind comes up with is just a mental copycatting of some discovery that the body has long since made, such as with a thigh bone being a second, levered force multiplier of the bitch slap levered by the arm. Hammer as a second arm. Without an elbow. Or a shoulder. Or a wrist. So really a poor imitation. Unless of course the foot up someone’s butt out-discovered the bitch slap.
Archetypal submissive pose instinctively performed by the Spanish man. Standing sideways to the aggressor and lowering his head and not making eye contact. Like a dog. It was the correct decision lol.
One more thing. Whoah whoah whoah. Just because you insist on something in a conversation doesn’t necessarily make it so. I do admire your imagination, your rhetorical flair, and your ability to do marathon runs with ideas though. It is an increasingly rare talent in our current soundbite, short-attention-span age. It was the Oxford Union loss when you left the old country for the new world.
Meanwhile, out in the real world, every garage mechanic knows a wheel is not a lever and a hammer is not a wheel and a lever is not a hammer.
The human arm is the lever; the hammer is just the fist we’ve chosen to make heavier and longer.
Give me a long enough lever and a place to stand and I will move the world.
Give me a wheel and I will make it go round and round like a circle in a spiral…..
Great song choice. What are the spokes on a wheel if not levers? What are galactic arms if not the levers of life lol.
This is the kind of argument we should be having more of. Well done, Reante.
Levers are categorized based on the positions of the fulcrum (pivot), the effort (input force), and the load (output weight).
The easiest way to remember the differences is the acronym F-L-E, which tells you which component is located in the middle:
1st Class: Fulcrum is in the middle.
2nd Class: Load is in the middle.
3rd Class: Effort is in the middle.
A hammer, when used for hammering nails or your thumb or other people’s heads, is what is known in the trade as a third-class lever. It forms part of a system in which the human elbow joint acts as the fixed axis or fulcrum for the forearm’s rotation.
Also, in an efficient strike, as when Norman is hammering nails with an artisan’s precision into innocent pieces of wood in the course of DIY projects, the wrist acts as a second, smaller third-class lever.
A modern hammer acts as a first-class lever–where it does the actual levering–only during specific tasks such as pulling nails, whereas the act of hammering relies on the human arm’s rotational motion and torque rather than acting as a continuous lever.
When you swing a hammer using your arm, in order to strike something, your anatomy and the tool work together to form a compound lever system to maximize the hammer’s speed and impact force. The hammer itself is not being used as a lever per se, but as a hammer, in order to hammer things, if I may hammer home the point. It is merely an attachment at the end of the human arm’s lever system, not a lever itself.
If we we to accept the view that a hammer is a lever, then we m would also have to accept that a broomstick, a coffee spoon, the cup of coffee we use the spoon on, a window-cleaning sponge, and a bowling ball, are all levers, because we use all of them in conjunction with our anatomy, which functions as a lever and gives us leverage over what these various tools do.
There is a core distinction in classical physics: the difference between a tool acting as a rigid lever arm versus acting as a tool serving as an extended mass in a rotational system. If we categorize all tools as levers simply because they happen to be attached to a human arm, then the definition of a “lever” loses all specific meaning and swallows every handheld object in existence like a semantic black hole.
Is that the view you seriously want us to adopt? Or am I missing something important?
Yes, biophysics is water-based, so it’s complex leverage using fluid dynamics rather than being static. We only engineer static, linear leverage into reality in order to make machines.
A watery arm wielding a hammer expertly is coordinated consciousness generating a wave through that compound lever. A mechanical hammer skeletonizes the mimicry by using coordinated linkages of pins as wheels — which are spinning levers — and rods.
The word lever doesn’t lose meaning with fluid dynamics, it comes to life. Biological structures are fluid levers for leveraging work.
Hundreds of cases in Italy too, and it is even worse. As bad as it is to lose your vacation home, many people in Italy have lost their primary home or apartment. Generally to gypsies. Once they are in, they are obliged to keep paying for electricity or gas too. The courts side with the occupiers if they have small children.
That situation sounds like a good way to discourage globalist globetrotting. If you’re globetrotting you’re just an elitist globalist bourgeois homeless migrant yourself. Real homes you can’t leave because real homes have daily responsibilities, like making sure no one else lives in your home by living in it yourself. You got a lot of internal contradictions drb. You can’t have it both ways. Maybe ask yourself why you want it both ways.
your usual uninformed take. there are many reasons to leave your home for two weeks. As it happens, most of these cases have been documented by one particular program on one of the smallest TV channels. A majority of cases is in summer when people go to the beach. Most people think that is perfectly acceptable, although if you want to define it as globetrotting feel free. Matter of fact, italians after covid mostly vacation in Italy.
All urban and suburban people are economic migrants.. That’s what the history of urbanism is, trading in rural agriculturalism for money. Why are you complaining about new economic migrants playing the game of musical chairs with vacant chairs during Collapse? Do you read any of Gail’s posts? That comes with the territory. It would be infinitely more concerning if it wasn’t happening.
When are you going to stop bargaining with Collapse?
I guess you know Italy better than me. No fuel rationing, supermarkets full, but collapse (aided by law enforcement) when it comes to having a roof above your head. affecting only some 1000 suburban apartment owners in selected big cities. and starting more than a year ago. and why only gypsies?
How comes it was not discussed here before, if it is so symptomatic of collapse?
I of course read it more as one more step in the penetration of the italian system (legal in this case) by outside forces. I now live in a place where, at a later stage of collapse, say 1998, just about everyone kept their roof. As usual, what you say does not compute.
It doesn’t compute because it’s not a systems theory for you. Because politics are more important to you.
Western countries have the squatting laws set up as they do because police aren’t in a structural position to figure out who has a claim on residency, so it has to go through the courts which takes time, especially these day, and especially when squatters get clever and make up fake paper claims for their tenancy. And obviously squatting laws prevent violence.
Both the Spanish homeowner and the African squatter knew the law more or less, and the African was defending his rights. You may not agree with it but the State has good statist reasons for it. People like you want to armchair quarterback the State into doing only what you think it should do. People like you hate semitic culture yet when it suits you you would have semitic economic law supercede the common law on which squatters rights are based, and because playing the semitic culture game to the max isn’t beneath you even though you claim to hate it.
Reante, could it possibly be that you are you jealous of people who take summer vacations because you have to stay home to feed the piggies?
Western society was built largely on property rights, which are socially recognized claims, as Kulm is constantly reminding us. But it isn’t unique to the West. All civilizations worthy of the name are built largely on property rights.
The characteristic thing about property is that it belongs to somebody, either to individuals or groups or organizations or the state. Property always implies ownership. If nobody owns it, then it doesn’t belong to anybody and it isn’t property.
Allowing squatting in other people’s property, meaning occupation without the owners’s permission, is a sign that major cracks are appearing in civilization. When that sort of thing becomes socially acceptable, the society is well down the slippery slope and it is way past time for wise people to get out, if they have somewhere better to go.
Part of the tragedy of collapse is that more and more people have less and less options, just as in the game of musical chairs. Squatting is a form of pinching someone else’s chair. That sort of thing is un-English, as Bertie Wooster used to say.
Here in Japan, unauthorized occupation of private or public property is absolutely not a viable housing method. Ask someone about squatting here they will likely point you to the nearest traditional toilet.
It’s not jealousy it’s reprobation of conspicuous consumerism.
As I said, drb getting his panties in a twist because of squatting means that he has become capture bonded to semitic corporate law over common law. Maybe he’s part of the rentier class and still owns property in Italy.
Semitic law is something I’ll have to look into. Its relation to property rights is something I am ignorant of.
I just use semitic law as phraseology for supremacist Old Testament Capitalism culture. Corporatism. Privatization. Fascism. Pharisaism. As adopted by the Ashkenazi Elites; Fitz of course would point out the supreme hypocrisy of semitic corporate law opposing common law squatter rights given the Squat that is Israel.
Hell, the whole world is a semitic culture Squat right now and we all live in it. Welcome to Global Fascism. Soon to be exchanged for its old nemesis in national socialism, because of the yin and the yang.
Do you mean 700 years of serving them.
They’re all genetic Moors after that long anyway, surely?
Keep this quiet(the nutters go mental at the meet mention), but it was probably the Umayyad Caliphate that introduced backward Europe to civilisation. Stupid Europe still took many centuries to work it out and there’s a very good agreement, that they never did.
The Iran war is a monkey trap for the United States
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2026/08/the-iran-war-is-monkey-trap-for-united.html#more
We got the right man for the role of the Monkey. Orange man the orangutan fits the bill perfectly.
https://www.oozlemedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/orangutan-trump-300×229.jpg
Monkey trap for anyone who takes it at face value. Just like the plandemic though a little more subtle.
This is an amazing analogy:
The Iran war is a monkey trap for the United States
A monkey trap offers a reward such as food that when grasped makes the hand too large to withdraw from the hole in the trap giving access to that food. Unless the monkey lets go, the animal is stuck. Now, the obvious choice when danger arrives is to simply let go and run. But, supposedly, monkeys won’t let go even as human hunters approach and then club them to death.
The war with Iran has become the Trump administration’s monkey trap; potential victory over Iran is the prize in the trap. Strangely, the only prize now available is something that was already available before the war started: freedom of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. But now that Iran has seized control of the strait and effectively closed it to unfriendly traffic, that seizure has become the most important leverage Iran has over the United States and its allies.
Sure is. Capitalism in a nutshell. Civilization in a nutshell.
I have condemned the Three Criminals whenever I could because without them, the exclusion of the ‘working class’ and the exclusion of continents not named Europe and North America into civilization would have continued, with any resisteance easily quashed with superior firepower.
Too much resources were consumed by those who had no business doing so, and too many peoples who have no business in civilization have jumped into there, wasting too much resources and now the entire world structure is in flux.
Without reopening the Whoremooz, the breakdown will start in earnest from Jan, just 5 months away. Now we are surviving with the existing slack, but it will run out around the end of this year.
It all comes down to one thing – whether the latest Ukrainian drones can topple the Russian regime or not. If that is not done by the end of this year, I am afraid next year will be quite brutal
There is also an allegation by Scott Ritter that Russia is taking down Ukraine, perhaps sooner than the end of the year.
All fall down!
Scott Ritter has a track record of catastrophizing and wishful thinking.
However, indeed, Russia has conquered almost all of Donbass, and unlike in the past, where deep strikes on civilian infrastructure were held back, now, the massive terrorism in the heartlands and the resulting public pressure has resulted in Russia taking the gloves off.
Indeed, the war seems to pick up steam and move towards a final decision.
The destruction of Odessa ports may be a death spell for Ukraine.
I think there may be more strategy behind the order of events. Russia has killed or driven off (via emigration) the overwhelming majority of manpower in Ukraine. Now that the military potential has been decimated, Russia can destroy the Ukrainian economy and will to fight, without risking the existence of a Ukraine that can pose a serious future threat. Had they compelled Ukraine to quit earlier via economic damage, the manpower pool and thus potential would remain.
As for Ritter, yes, he likes to emote.
The economy is starting to contract rapidly in Brazil. We had some strong inflation in the past ~4 years, specially due to the consequences of Covid in the world supply chains, but also due to monetary expansion and the fact that the government keeps raising taxes, so companies are passing this cost to consumers as well.
But now things have reached their breaking point. Lots of business are closing its doors, be them retail, industries or services. Multinational corporations are moving out of the country, even for Paraguay. Deflation is happening to discretionary sectors already, and even and specially to automotive sector, to both new and used cars.
Real state stagnated, prices aren’t climbing anymore and there are no homebuyers, only investors who but the houses or apartments to speculate. Dining is at its last legs, with empty restaurants everywhere, even during the weekends.
Brazilians are one inflation spike away from getting completely broke, people can’t get trough the month on a minimum wage, nor even at a median wage. Personal debt and delinquencies are rising.
So, deflation is already happening, but there’s still inflation. In fact, that’s a pincer movement crushing margins across the board.
And by year end, finally the full effects of the war will materialize through the world economies.
Brazilians are toasted.
But now the good news: Brazil, due to being an oil producer and net exporter, but also a heavy ethanol user, will at least not be hit as bad as, say, Europe, or Asia, or Oceania. Other South American economies are in worse shape due to their energy dependence, being very fragile and vulnerable to sudden swings, with less buffer and resilience. We already see much higher prices in food, for instance, with prices in Uruguay, Argentina and Chile already double or triple of Brazil’s.
Similar situation in Canada, a slowly (or sometime quickly, depending on the area) deflating real estate bubble, rising prices for groceries, and nobody seems to have any money, most of the restaurants are half or mostly-empty.
Thanks to John P and diogenes ,
Keep in mind that as part of the neo-Monroe doctrine Brazil is next. Every other L.Am. country is more or less controlled. You could be already in the stages of preparation work, like it was done for Russia or Iran (i.e., someone is shorting the currency, creating financial difficulties. Prepare to fight or end like Venezuela.
drb in full-on terrorized double masking mass formation mode. First the Hand came for the Liberals, then it came for the Conservatives. Leaving only the non-hysterical social nationalists to govern.. Smart.
Southern Brazil will bolt our and join Milleikowsky’s regime.
Thanks for your update from Brazil.
In the US it is hard for owners of apartments to raise rents. The median price of homes has tended to stagnate. This is a chart I found on Realtor.com.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-admin/upload.php?item=55010
It looks to me as if the US Median List Price in mid 2026 is below that of 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025!
Brazil has the same dollar problem as everyone else. The problem might look a little different from country to country. But it’s the same problem.
Here in couple of months when all the oil buffers are completely gone. We are going to see a global currency crisis. And it will only end when Eurodollar banks decide it’s ok to lend again and not a minute before.
Government and central bank intervention can’t end what is coming. They are merely applying band-aids to injuries that need tourniquet and surgery to be survived. They don’t have the right tool or equipment needed to fix the patient.
Speaking of tourniquets. Two 53 foot trailers loaded them, of the combat variety are on there way to a European country who has a standing army of about 189,000 troops. More tourniquets than actual troops.
I mean surely this is just a routine thing right? Probably order that much every year right? This order is actually small compared to the other i was talking about awhile back. btw.
“a European country who has a standing army of about 189,000 troops. More tourniquets than actual troops.”
Germany?
Could be Poland, but believe their army is bigger now. Doesn’t really matter, they’ll be working together, rather than letting others, as Herr Merz said about the squat, “do our dirty work”(his family have a well known affection for genocide, so look out anyone in or near Germany).
If he wants the Russians in Berlin again, it would save a lot of energy by just inviting them(might miss out on a bit of genocide on the way and Friedrich would be so sad).
Yeah, it was the so called economic power of Europe.
Germany is the planned hub for the coming large war*, but given the way Russia is dealing with Ukraine presently, Germany may be doing that role already. I think it will be the Baltics, Finland, then Poland joining the fray, at least at first. Then again, listening to Merz you would think he wants to get involved straight away. They have been conditioning the public, with tv appearances from people like Dr. Bernd Baumann openly saying
“It’s not enough to put in a few billion. There must also be a willingness to fight. The soldiers must also be prepared to die for Germany. So we must put the Bundeswehr on a new footing morally, militarily, and financially.”
I don’t think the good doctor is prepared for himself, or his family to die for Germany, but very happy to be paid to tell others their duty.
The planners seem to think Germany will hold, but the Oreshnik was surely designed for this very purpose.
* Germany has been busy upgrading it’s roads, bridges and rail in all relevant places, so tanks can cross them. They have also been rebuilding arms production.
Lots of information in the below and about half a dozen other pieces from the same author.
https://worldlinesletter.substack.com/p/the-transatlantic-split-myth-how
Keep us informed when you can. It all helps to make the path clearer.
The RU already mentioned they expect in latter stages, after conquering eastbound lands by the major river, that various enclaves of western UKR will be nibbled out by PL / RO/ HU /.. driven by historic cultural – ethnic minority protection ( claimed ) interest despite today’s exalted friendship, and that’s ok with them – not expected to intervene. So, the future UKR, will likely end up in ~ 1/5 – 1/10th of pre-war dimensions.
“So, the future UKR, will likely end up in ~ 1/5 – 1/10th of pre-war dimensions.”
Yes, at best, or maybe no Ukraine at all. If the western section is divvied up amongst the lessers, there won’t be anyone left that isn’t happy to be Russian.
We also need to remember that Poland and others are forced to “build up”, as they sensibly see Germany as a potential invader. They remember history and are well aware of the historical relevance of the present language coming out of Germany.
Ever get the feeling we’ve been here before(more than once).
Fitz I just don’t see the function of a German invasion to the East for Germany. It’s on the verge of Collapse. Besides, how could current German politics allow for that?
This is a sort of strange AI dressed up version of Nima interviewing Scott Ritter. The title seems somewhat hysterical, too. Ritter is concerned that if Iran wins, Saudi Arabia will be “dismembered”–cut into chunks. Ritter talks also about the huge damage Russia is doing to Ukraine’s infrastructure, leaving it near collapse before winter comes. This seems to be part of a longer video, but I didn’t find the longer version.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhlSB5HqwdU
Blurb:
Saudi Arabia Just Collapsed, The Gulf Strike Nobody Expected: Scott Ritter | The Frontline Directive
Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure and geopolitical standing have hit a breaking point. In this critical update, former UN inspector Scott Ritter breaks down how recent escalations in the Middle East are shifting the balance of power, crippling Gulf oil logistics, and leaving Washington with zero good options.
Is this the beginning of a broader regional collapse, or can the U.S. contain the fallout?
I don’t think this is AI. Some channels cut up interviews done on other channels and apply some visual rearrangement to prevent them from getting banned for copying content. The audio is the same though.
The audio sounded fine to me.
I found the original interview from which your link was compiled. Here you can see they stripped and replaced the background/set behind Scott Ritter and moved the components. Same exact conversation, though. No AI.
The original interview is 52.06 long. Its title is “Scott Ritter: Iran Strikes U.S. Airbase & Command Center in Jordan with Ballistic Missiles”
The cut version is only 27.49 long. It starts in the middle of the discussion of Saudi Arabia, and the discussion of how Iran might want to cut Saudi Arabia into pieces and distribute the pieces to benefit other Middle Eastern countries.
“This is a sort of strange AI dressed up version of Nima interviewing Scott Ritter. The title seems somewhat hysterical, too.”
Ah, I see what the problem is. You watched a plagiarized version of the original video. That’s a thing on YT. The original content creator gets plagiarized by a channel that was setup to gain views and ad revenues.
I don’t think anyone has posted this yet. BP selling its North Sea assets:
BP puts North Sea business up for sale
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62q7w003lro
Been a long time coming.
I am sure the cost of capping these wells will be high. The amount coming out isn’t very high any more, either.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFbMz-GaFMU
Spain drives back 45,000 of 60,000. Methods include denying access to water, food, and lodging. Vigilantes deny access to theft.
Just a created invent to justify covert lockdowns and getting military involved to handle the huge spike in medical emergencies.
This is like George Floyd event to the right wing.
My youngest brother, a mechanical engineer, retired from Stellantis yesterday @ age 65. My three brothers and I have completed our boomer quartet of useless eaters.
And what the hell was he working on? EVs, ICE cars, PHEVs, REEVs, etc? So which is it that will power the cars? Now a gas engine to power the battery to power an EV? It’s schizophrenic. It reminds me of the guy who packed a Honda 2200i generator and gas in his trunk to power his EV in case there was no charging station available.
He writes:
“The company would have preferred that I stay on, but enough is enough.
They couldn’t find my replacement despite my giving 3 months notice.
We are attempting to certify the fuel economy and range of the 2027 Jeep
Grand Wagoneer REEV. This is the plug-in hybrid electric vehicle with
the onboard gas engine charger. I’m leaving at a time when the vehicle
was supposed to start certification this week, but it needs more tweaks
to the calibration. That will add another month delay. Well, not my
problem any longer.
https://topelectricsuv.com/hybrid-trucks/range-extender-models-upcoming/
Yes, Stellantis realized they can’t compete in classic PHEV refinement setup to leaders such as Toyota, Koreans and now CHN. So, they opted for the lesser headache ( from manuf. standpoint ) REEV system, I guess it’s a sensible decision for the US market with large form factor vehicles ( legacy ladder frames ). Although, most of RoW prefers the ~compact PHEV for now instead, featuring smallish battery for short urban commutes as the mass produced cheaper variants of solid state batts are still 5yrs away..
But now with the nascent globo-fragmentation and tariffs against each other it will be difficult in all segments for the consumers and manufs as well.
“Now a gas engine to power the battery to power an EV? It’s schizophrenic.”
Sounds like someone worked really hard to reinvent the hybrid.
https://topelectricsuv.com/hybrid-trucks/range-extender-models-upcoming/#google_vignette
“A plug-in hybrid runs on both gasoline and electricity, and can drive short distances on battery power before the engine takes over. An Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV) is different in that it’s primarily electric, and the engine acts as a generator to extend range.
EREVs use a bigger battery than PHEVs (plug-in hybrid ), with the engine stepping in for longer trips. This setup works well for larger vehicles, which have space for both powertrains. Instead of relying on expensive battery packs and inadequate charging infrastructure, they use a gas engine to charge the moderately sized battery to handle heavy loads and long distances”
Slapping a new name on old concept must be fooling someone in upper management at these car companies.
No, it’s not new name for old concept.
As I tried to explain above, it’s deliberately new name to differentiate from previous and concurrent approaches.
Again, hybrid means at least for past ~30yrs what the original Prius and Insight brought along, i.e. highly integrated gearbox w. electric m. and combustion engine and small ( impulse only ) battery, working in intertwined combo ~all the time at least for the urban driving cycle context.
While, REEV is chiefly about full EV with just slapped additional separate engine generator ( hidden onboard where-ever practical ) to charge the EV only inside some %% envelope of dis-charged status of the battery, i.e. rarely for the most part, assuming operator charges from the grid or home PV outlet.
JRR Tolkien wrote the Lord of Rings trilogy in 1954-1955.
Tolkien is said to be descended from Saxons who moved to England in the 18th century, and his father was a banker in South Africa, so he was not one of the scum of earth like the late Dr Robert Firth or some people who still think it is 1890.
He did not like how things were going in 1950s and wrote the trilogy to propose for a bygone era, ended by the Three Criminals and other morons who followed them (he himself modeled the Dead Marshes after the fields of Somme, where he fought at)
Frodo , a hobbit (read: lower class) , inherits the The Ring from his unmarried uncle Bilbo (there is a long story about how a hobbit like Bilbo ended up with the ring , which I won’t retell).
Frodo launches a long journey to destroy the Ring, since it is not proper for a lowly hobbit to own it.
Long story short, Frodo destroys the Ring, and because of that, Aragorn restores the old Kingdom, and he reestablished everything which existed before his family lost the throne, somewhat like the Restoration Period of England in 1660s and France 1815-1830.
At least Charles II was gracious enough to make Monck a Duke, despit of Monck apparently lacking any noble ancestors.
But, Tolkien could not even tolerate that – King Aragorn promptly forgets Frodo, who is just a lowly hobbit despite of what he had done. Frodo is not given any titles or rewards, and he doesn’t even get to marry and continue his Baggins family, while suffering from the pains he gained from wounds he collected during the journey.
After finishing his memoirs, the fairies move him to Valinor, which is Valhalla in Tolkienesque, ‘to end his sufferings’, i.e. Frodo is euthanized to end any possibility of requesting a reward beyond his social status.
After Frodo is safely dead, some kind of memorial is built for him, like the empty war memorials to commemorate the irreplaceable talents who perished so scum of earth like Robert Firth could become Oxford PhDs, and a couple of his very distant relatives are employed by the Royal Court, none of them benefiting Frodo in any way.
But all of that was Tolkien’s intention.
Restoration of the old, civilized order means there was no place for a lowly hobbit like Frodo, who was not eligible for any rewards or appreciation since he was NOT part of Civilization
That was the direction civilization should have taken, and Tolkien laments the lost world , hoping sanity could return in some day and people like Frodo’s contribution could be safely ignored again.
I can say in all sincerity, Kulm, that you never fail to delight, and I hang on every word. There is a strange genius in this interpretation of the LOR characters. Highly original, and who knows it may be correct – Tolkein was a dark horse.
I concur, this was an interesting interpretation. Hear, hear.
I third that. Kulm presents us with a consistent perspective and he certainly has a way with words.
I had always assumed Frodo ended up in the Middle Earth version of heaven surrounded by Elvish maidens who feed him grapes. But the point that he didn’t his just rewards in Middle Earth is well taken.
As an aside, Issac Asimov, who confessed that he read LOR five times and enjoyed it more each time he read it, saw the One Ring as a symbol for modern technology and thought–as many others have–that Tolkien’s story revealed a dislike of this form of progress.
Someone online 20 years ago who calls themself Ohio Hobbit, wrote the following:
I did a some research and I believe that the “commentary on the symbolism of the One Ring” might be “The Ring of Evil”, Asimov on Science Fiction, Doubleday, 1981, first published as “The One Ring Is What We Make It”, Panorama, May, 1980.
Asimov makes the following statements about the “meaning” of the One Ring.
“It is the lure of technology; the seduction of things done more easily; of products in greater quantity; of gadgets in tempting variety. It is gunpowder, and the automobile, and television; all the things that people snatch for if they don’t have them; all the things that people can’t let go once they do have them.”
He continues;
“We hold the One Ring and it is destroying us and the world, and there is no Frodo to take the load of it upon himself, and there is no Mount Doom to take it to, and there are no events to insure the One Ring’s destruction.”
But after that Asimov talks about how things were not all that great in the pre-industrial world and about the many benefits that “industrialization” has brought. He then goes on to say;
“If we cannot give up the One Ring, there’s a good reason for that. If the One Ring is drawing us to our destruction that is because we are misusing it in our greed and folly. Surely, there are ways of using it wisely. Are we so willing to despair so entirely of humanity as to deny that we can be sane and wise if we must be?
No, the One Ring is not wholly Evil. It is what we make it, and we must rescue and extend those parts of it that are Good.”
Truly awesome find, Tim. Dude was exploring Hand theory 20 years ago while I was still fixated on my previous obsession, basketball.
Dude was calling for a Tulsi Gabbard to symbolically put on the One Ring 20 years ago. And so far he got Trump lol. Smart. Meanwhile the One Ring was already on the middle fingie of the Hand and the Hand was already sanely and wisely engaged in doing everything this dude was dreaming of and more.
Lorde Pauses Lollapalooza Show As Multiple Fans Pass Out
On Thursday night, the 2x Grammy winner briefly paused her performance to check on fans near the stage who were losing consciousness, calling security over to help them, according to multiple outlets.
https://deadline.com/2026/07/lorde-pauses-lollapalooza-show-fans-pass-out-1237015099/
Dropping like F*** flies
8-time bowling tour champion Jakob Butturff dies at 32
“Eight-time PBA Tour champion Jakob Butturff died on Friday, July 31, the Professional Bowlers Association announced. He was 32.
No cause of death was announced. The PBA said Butturff “died unexpectedly.”
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/bowling/2026/08/01/jakob-butturff-dies-bowler-pba/91131911007/
I read or browse Mark Crispy Miller’s News From Underground every week, and the die-off just goes on and on and on and including a lot of people dying suddenly, unexpectedly, and far too young, a lot of “instant” stage-4 cancer, a lot of dementia, and a a lot of brain aneurysms.
Last week we had Captain “Sully” (who landed his plane safely in the Hudson River) and Danny Glover (“I’m too old for this shit!”) diagnosed with Alzheimer’s; Penélope Cruz suffered brain aneurysm scares; Katie Couric’s ‘freaky’ memory loss; William Shatner, daughter both battled cancer 3 years ago, RHOC’s Jeana Keough diagnosed with tongue cancer (What could she have been licking?); Black Sabbath drummer Bill Ward confined to wheelchair; Red Dragon Cartel frontman Darren James Smith diagnosed with early onset dementia; & more, more, more, celebs and little people alike.
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/captain-sully-danny-glover-diagnosed
I read or browse Mark Crispy Miller’s News From Underground every week, and the die-off just goes on and on and on and including a lot of people dying suddenly, unexpectedly, and far too young, a lot of “instant” stage-4 cancer, a lot of dementia, and a a lot of brain aneurysms.
Last week we had Captain “Sully” (who landed his plane safely in the Hudson River) and Danny Glover (“I’m too old for this shit!”) diagnosed with Alzheimer’s; Penélope Cruz suffered brain aneurysm scares; Katie Couric’s ‘freaky’ memory loss; William Shatner, daughter both battled cancer 3 years ago, RHOC’s Jeana Keough diagnosed with tongue cancer (What could she have been licking?); Black Sabbath drummer Bill Ward confined to wheelchair; Red Dragon Cartel frontman Darren James Smith diagnosed with early onset dementia; & more, more, more, celebs and little people alike.
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/captain-sully-danny-glover-diagnosed
people never do drugs at music shows, right? you should start an eddy fan club.
They do, but they don’t usually have to stop the show.
No need to be so reactionary Bill O’Reilly.
Coming from the guy following and reporting on Google trends medical emergencies. If you wanna dog Mob because he told you you’re bad at math then at least do a good job of it.
If I need input from a humanities major who can’t add or subtract, I’ll let you know. Cheers.
I didn’t interject because I thought you needed something from me. It’s abundantly clear that you don’t need anybody but yourself.
The waiver of the Jones Act is a major reason US oil supply chains (including those in California) have held up well. The Jones Act required the use of only US flagged (and staffed) boats, which tend to be expensive for the transport of oil. The link shows a map of routes made economical.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/trumps-jones-act-waiver-helped-avert-fuel-shortages-across-these-key-us-regions
A recent Reuters report stated that the Trump administration was considering another extension of the waiver. . .
The data suggest the waiver is unlocking trade routes that were previously uneconomical or unavailable under Jones Act restrictions.
The largest effects are being seen in isolated or import-dependent markets, particularly the West Coast, Puerto Rico and New England, while the impact on the well-supplied Lower Atlantic remains marginal. Cargoes have included gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, propane and ammonia.
“CBS News reported today (Friday, July 31, updated at 7:38 pm EDT) that the US and Israel are planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, with strikes possible throughout the weekend, per multiple sources.
According to CBS, the target set is energy infrastructure — marking a shift from the military and coastal targets of the earlier strike cycles. CBS reported the US is considering striking energy infrastructure including oil refineries and power plants, which would mark a significant change in the target set. It also would trigger a potentially devastating counter-strike by Iran on the refineries and power plants of the Persian Gulf Arabs.
CBS reports that the Israelis have been notified and are coordinating with the United States, according to multiple US sources — and note the significance, since this would involve the Israeli military for the first time in many weeks, an escalation that would likely trigger Iranian missile attacks on Israel in response.”?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/trump-mulls-strikes-on-irans-oil
This situation in the dire straits puts me in mind of the conflict between Auntie and Masterblaster over who runs Bartertown in the iconic 1985 movie Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome.
The embargoes and the kinetic barrages will continue until the Trumpster or whoever is in charge in Iran publicly concedes that their opponent runs this particular Bartertown.
Reads “also would trigger a potentially devastating counter-strike by Iran on the refineries and power plants of the Persian Gulf Arabs.”
No doubt, it will, because Iran will not be “defeated” by conventional bombing campaigns alone. Doubt Trump as the stomach for a nuclear strike in the name of “saving” American lives or the Military brass would allow it to happen.
We are not going to see “boots on the ground” in any meaningful campaign.
This whole affair has been a just a total blunder. Wish Herbert Hoover was in office…oh, sorry, be careful what you wish for, right, Donald?
The escalation seems to keep going on, no matter how little chance there is for success.
Well there can be success it will just be bombing of the Infrastructure the U.S and Iran will sweep in and inslave all the Arab populations. Yes it may be difficult for the American people but difficult is a relative term. How many of you Americans have felt the pain of war. My guess is no one
Postkey, I was reminded… In April 2016 I listened to Trump’s foreign policy speech, wrote notes, didn’t quite make it to the end, doorbell drring drring. Summary.
Theme: America First. Replace Chaos with Peace
History: We saved the world from the Nazis and the Jap Imperialists! We won the Cold War BIG!
Our present foreign policy: Foolishness and arrogance
Mistakes in Iraq – Iraq-Iran war baad because it enabled Iran – Egypt, Syria and Lybia (=> bashing Obama)
Iran filled the void! They have benefitted so much (=> against Iran)
Obama treated Iran with tender love and care! (=> against Iran)
Military weakened! Allies don’t pay fair share! (=> familiar ongoing complaint NATO milit. spending etc.)
Iran cannot be allowed to have a nuclear weapon — 2x ! (=> Against Iran)
We should work together with any country in the region (ME) threatened by Islam. But it has to be two-way. They have to appreciate what we have done for them! (=> ISIS is Radical Islam … this section is v. messy)
Friendship with Russia and China, we are not bound to be adversaries, but can find common ground, Russia also suffered from terrorism. If we can’t make a deal with Russia we will walk from the table!
China respects strength, we have a massive trade deficit, etc. We need a better relationship with China, but can go our separate ways if need be. (=> More down on China than on Russia.)
We have to re-build our military and economy! Our military dominance must be unquestioned! We have to increase our economic might! Technologial superiority, like cyber-warfare!
A few other points scattered about, such as better care for veterans (=> loud applause.)
Only one country was labelled as a clear target for outright vicious attack, Iran.
to view – Google – in Youtube: Trump foreign policy speech 2016. (I guess link shorteners are not allowed here.)
Nothing said about no new “wars”, just short excursions maybe?
Oh, they didn’t start a “war” by essentially wiping out most of the rulers family and ruling body along with a massive sneak attack air strike…am I missing something?
Oh, sorry we’ve been at “war” with them for 47 years…
Just like some other nations for decades..Cuba, North Korea ( never an official peace treaty), Soviet Union now Russia, but we have “understandings” with them.
Please, if we didn’t have those we would create others to justify our obscene wasteful outdated military establishment.
The google-trends “medical emergency” search level has fallen precipitously. Whatever caused the spike – a real change in search volume, a coordinated psyop (eg. searching for this term via botnet to influence trading prediction algorithms), or a change in statistical aggregation methods – it appears to have ended.
https://trends.google.com/explore?q=medical%2520emergency%2Cemergency%2520medical%2520center%2Cemergency%2520center&date=all&geo=US
Remembers: nothing ever happens.
I was listening to the radio. There was a show by a creature called Tiom Hartman. The topic is why USA had so many COVID deaths. He started with what he said was a biblical reference. “Smash the state and do it was smashed” . He proceeded to the main content.
The cause of excesses COVID deaths in the USA .
1. Trump
2. trump
3 Trump.
Every aspect of Trump’s attire facial expression personal habits hairstyle was described in great detail every aspect a exercise in disdain and hate. The topic was converted to predigested Trump hate and a opportunity to froth at the mouth while not mentioning one single real issue about the topic. It was all Trump everything after was a beautiful thing with only the health and welfare of the people the motive.
So it begins.
Critical thinking is extinct. It’s all big froth at the mouth f fest now whether left or right. Honesty I really can’t discern the difference in between the froth except of course who the nemesis identified is.
Taking a break for a while folks.
Love ya dog
It’s still double what it’s been averaging over the last 25 years. +100%
You must suck at math.
And where is the trend headed? Back to where it was. Give it another week. And I’m pretty good at math, thank you very much 🙂
Its been trending around 50ish since dec 2025 which is double the historical average of 20ish. (including june 4x higher)
That’s seven months, in a row..
Ivan the terrible at Math
Dude, get a grip. 50% of the total run-up has been lost in one month. I’m saying it could be back around the original trend in another month, get it now?
Recent trend of stocks up rates down appears to be broken.
I have the distinct feeling something big breaks soon.
Yeehaw. I gave you full marks btw for your noncommital Fed call manifesting as a noncommital hawkish hold.
Why thank you sir, you’re a gentleman and a scholar
My favourite led zep songthank you Mr House
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LH0-WXUFY2k
Another good version!
I have been saying that something is going to break soon for 7 years 🤦♂️ but somehow the band plays on
Something broke in 2020, end of the bond bull market. Watch what they do, not what they say
True
what could be keeping the stock market from imploding would-be the enhanced oil recovery from the Permian so if that is going this would be the true peak oil remember a 5% drop in oil production leads to a 95% drop in GDP
In other words the bubble is about to burst.Trump will be blamed and I expect a lot of people will be hunting him post collapse.
Poor Trump he is the fall guy for the end of capitalism the elders groomed him specifically for this purpose.
5 percent drop in oil production leads to a 95 percent drop in GDP? I’m not sure how that works. I do agree a drop in oil production will lead to lower revenues..
If debt bubbles collapse, strange things can happen.
The economy needs to keep inflating, to repay debt with interest. With a 5% drop in oil supply, economic growth is likely to turn to contraction. A whole lot of debt defaults start occurring.
You are such a great teacher Gail…. you make complex subjects understandable…
Thanks!
Yes they did (groom him for that). Odd oil to gdp stat there. Does not sound sound in the slightest
I think that stat came from a comment from David Cooper but everything has been held back with so many financial shenanigans that when it does collapse it’s going to be very big so 95% is a major possibility you don’t think it will happen do you think renewables will provide us with a fantastic financial system or will it be more like Feudalism with a s*** load of serfs.think about the invasion that occurred when almost 50,000have nots turned up demanding their slice of the pie.what do you think the hand is planning AI to make you feel good as you stare into your little screen.they will be simply joining the other haves as their world crumbles and they turn into have nots staring into their little screen.
Perhaps one uber-tell is that recent ” scandal ” about his kids investing in some silly dev project in Albanian natural preserve ( ClubMed ) coast.
Because serious top elite ( ~PO aware ) won’t waste precious life-time on such silliness, as they would rather pimp #1 prioritize NPPs to Patagonia or mega dam projects to CAN/Alaskan/Siberian rivers or what have you..
__
PS ” .. The densely populated Western Ionian Sea coast is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, including earthquakes (sometimes tsunamigenic), ..”
Yesterday was the last trading day of the month. I expect that there was a lot of repositioning and dealing with contracts that terminated at the end of the month.
Spain’s african enclave invaded as Spain gets punished for its recent multipolar politics.
That’s only if you agree to have your mind molded for you drb. To characterize it as an invasion is as high-schools level dumb jock consciousness as it gets. We’re supposed to be growing here as a group drb, not regressing.
go fuck yourself reante. 50000 is a big deal.
It’s not punishment drb. It’s statecraft being imposed at the supranational level. A psyop. The Hand’s problem with Spain is a lack of Spanish nationalism rather than too much nationalism. Hand needs more nationalism so it’s creating a nationalist political reaction with a next-level black teen flash mob. As usual you have it backwards.
Tepid Spanish anti-imperialism in the form of anti-Trumpism — which makes the tepid anti-imperialism actually a form of anti-nationalism as the Spanish political establishment sees it anyway — isn’t the nationalism required of Phase 2. Nationalism isn’t saying no to a Trumpian clownshow imperialism; nationalism is saying yes to nationalism. And what fundamentally defines nationalism other than being in charge of your own currency? Borders. Being in charge of your borders.
Problem Reaction Solution.
Very clever.
I noticed that patten too. It’s usually the opposite of what is being presented.
Right on brother. It almost always is the opposite. And I just found out it’s not even mainland Spain that they flash mobbed, it’s a colonial exclave in Africa separated by a narrow channel from Morocco and the kids only had to swim, inner tube, or boat about a mile to get there lol. And the fake Leftist President of Spain made a show of rushing across the Strait of Gibraltar to the exclave to deal with the ‘crisis.’ And almost all of the kids have already gone back to Morocco already. drb making new woke on the issue like Donald Trump. Probably following Meloni’s hysterical lead because of his Italian interests. Pathetic.
I just found that out about the exclave even though drb already stated it…
Well, grain of truth could be hidden there..
Because there is also that regional Morocco vs Algeria simmering antagonism and the latter is know for long term good relationships w. CHN/RU..
Moreover, that youngsters invasion had vibes of sudden meme or prankish tint to it, as hastily organized over the net chat-rooms, mobiles.. as on other other mass influenced occasions in recent yrs.
Lot of these kids ( ring leaders – exceptions ? ) apparently had expensive phones, neoprene suits and what have you. For example, comparatively, I don’t have such nice things.. but obviously I’m not locked up in a ~hell hole as their native country in many respects.
Then it’s not an invasion is it?
It is an invasion. That is what the guns are for. Will whitey ever learn to defend themselves?
Riiiight. That’s cuz whitey too busy playing offense to play defense. Best defense is a good offense.
Let’s not quibble over insignificant shades of definition or meaning.
The room in my house where I take a pee
Is it a toilet or a bathroom or a lavatory?
And that long seat I perch on when I sip my tea
Is it a couch or a sofa or a settee?
What’s going on in that North African enclave isn’t an invasion in the Normandy landings sense. But it is an invasion in the broader sense of an unwanted entry or a large influx of things pr people.
An army or country entering another region by force to take control would be a military invasion. A large, annoying arrival of people, such as tourists, relatives, paparazzi, hooligans, or pests such as cockroaches or sandflies, or even an unkindness of ravens into a place would also be an invasion, although of a different kind. I don’t know a good preceding adjective for that one.
Invasion has an interestin’ etymology.
It is derived from the Latin root invadere, meaning “to go, come, or get into, or enter with hostile intent”.
This combines in- (into) and vadere (to go, walk).
It could be argued that invading in this original sense is precisely what the aspiring migrants are doing. They are walking in with hostile intent. Although it could also be argued that perhaps they are only trying to get into Spain because they love the country so much and want to share in its culture and take part in its social, political, artistic and economic life.
When the Beatles led the British music invasion of the US, few people argued at the time that they had hostile intent, although perhaps with hindsight we can see that they were indeed at the vanguard of a cultural revolution aimed at undermining the spirit of traditional American values?
Fortunately the Americans were able to successfully fight back and stem the invasion with the Monkees, the Mamas and the Papas, and later the Carpenters, and the Partridge Family.
What kind of a hobby farmer and prepper pisses indoors, and 5 months into Hormooz no less? 😄
Although I did star up Tim’s nicely tangential post..
Reante is also correct, because he(she) who pisses outdoors regularly on pre-selected patch of self-seeded forest strawberries and or bushes of blackberries, currants and such are too distant for it, has already [ won the rat race ] on this simulacrum planet to a significantly-large extent..
Hopefully, welcome to the elite club.
That’s a difficult question….
But a fair one.
Actually, I pee outside all the time in summer , on the grass or against the bushes. In the daytime I have a look around first to make sure the neighbors can’t see me. At night, I shine a flashlight around first to make sure there are no bears in the vicinity.
The main reason for peeing outside it to save on the limited water supply. At the moment the spring we rely on is supplying about 50 liters an hour, but a couple of weeks without rain and that could go down to just 5 liters an hour. On the other hand, if we are hit by a typhoon, as often happens in August or September, we could get a bathtub full of water per second flowing down the creek.
The other reason for peeing outside is because I wouldn’t want to have to admit I was wasting precious drinking water to this kid.
https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpreview.redd.it%2F4u6kphckht2d1.jpeg%3Fauto%3Dwebp%26s%3Da600f52ec0672fa321cad05b80e9397a660a7f64
Tim, appreciate your high standards as managing water tightly even in monsoon climate zone.
https://www.britannica.com/place/Asia/Monsoons-and-typhoons
Yes, the drought is beyond crazy this season ( European context here ). Prefer the rain water submerged tank for the rare stock of plants, but one ~complete flash irrigation ( soil/root system only not foliage that’s luxury over the top now ) of these selected plants and mini-nursery takes more then 1/10th of the entire volume, and no serious rain for past weeks, months.. The deep well water is kept for the last reserve.. and human-oid’s.
Obviously the people from valley’s and low-lands proper are completely shot by now in comparison, I’ve seen their dusty-brownout gardens.
__
PS in terms of the pic, ” humanure setup ” as as standalone outside positioned rudimentary outhouse would be good solution even for just 1/2 – 3/4 yr season; but you need the whole system operational: all easily serviceable dispatch-able, fine mulches for it in stock, .. and dedicated crop/fruit field for the final disposal aka [ all work+ ]
Jr, welcome to Oregon summers. Now you know what it feels like.
Zerohedge is now saying:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spains-ceuta-invaded-thousands-illegals-and-military-aged-men-storm-border-morocco
Italy Suspends Schengen Travel Agreement With Spain After Horrifying Ceuta Invasion
Summary:
–Italy Suspends Schengen Agreement With Spain Over Ceuta Invasion
–Europe’s Right-Wing Blasts Spanish Socialists For Border Failure
–Riots erupted in Ceuta as Illegals Clashed with Security Forces
–Mass Migration Invasion Of Military-Aged Males From Morocco Invades Spanish Enclave
–“Looks Like World War Z!”: Spain’s Ceuta Invaded By Thousands Of Military-Aged Male Illegals
A different article says,
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/spains-border-invasion-optics-disaster-socialist-and-dsas-nation-killing-open-borders
Spain’s Border Invasion Is An Optics Disaster For Open-Border Democrats
The average American has learned about the far-left movement, or more particularly, reformist socialists, otherwise known as the Democratic Socialists of America, in recent months. The DSA says in its own words that its platform is about collapsing America from within. To accomplish that, they must push open borders and flood the nation with millions more illegal aliens, similar to what the Biden-Harris regime of globalists did, among many other nation-killing policies.
The only problem for the DSA is that, after weeks of heightened news coverage in the corporate media about its sinister plan, the news cycle has turned against it. Tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people across the West have just witnessed the border invasion of 50,000 military-aged men into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta at a time when the socialist regime controlling Spain has adopted what some call “suicidal empathy” and welcomed illegals into the country by the millions on a red carpet.
Major chemical shutdowns in Europe .
https://x.com/calvinfroedge/status/2082809402923311327/photo/1
A drought is about to do to Europe what the Iran war couldn’t
Europe spent months bracing for oil chaos out of the Gulf, watching Hormuz, the Black Sea, and the Red Sea. Now a dry summer is doing what all those threats couldn’t.
The Rhine, the 800-mile river running through the industrial heart of Europe, is drying up. It carries the fuel, chemicals, and steel that feed factories across Switzerland, Germany, and France, and moves around 80% of everything shipped on German rivers. BASF puts it plainly: without the Rhine, industry in western Europe would collapse.
At Kaub, the key chokepoint near Frankfurt, the water just dropped to 28 centimeters, down from a normal 200-plus. This week it’s forecast to hit 24, the lowest since Germany began keeping records in 1990. At that depth barges can barely carry anything, and freight costs from Rotterdam have already nearly tripled in a month.
The knock-on is already starting. Switzerland may have to tap its strategic oil reserves within weeks, German chemical and steel plants could cut output, and parts of Germany are facing possible fuel shortages, all while businesses are still running lean on the pricey fuel the Iran war left behind.
The hardest part is the timing. The Rhine’s driest months, August and September, haven’t even arrived yet.
Europe spent all year braced for a war over oil, and the real threat is turning out to be the weather.
You can sign a ceasefire with Iran. There’s no signing one with the sky.
Source: Bloomberg / Writer: Daniyal
Japan dumped $ 66 billion in treasuries to save Yen . Now trading 159.60 , was 163 before the dump .
RBI sold $ 7 billion in a DAY to save the Indian rupee which was touching almost Rs 97 . Today Rs 95 .85 .
Just for info about the dollar shortage .
More problems!
More inflation!
Has the cleanest dirty shirt in the hamper changed?
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=6M
Sorry not $ 66 billion but $ 140 billion .
“While the BOJ understandably refuses to admit it spent a record $140BN (across all markets, $90BN on EBS) to briefly manipulate the Japanese yen higher…”
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-treasury-informed-banks-it-may-intervene-japans-yen-market-laughs-bojs-own-attempts-prop
Washington has ultimately SEIZED control of the Bank of Japan.
US Treasury’s Scott Bessent just casually posts about “close coordination” with BoJ Governor Ueda, this is the smoking gun that America is dictating Japan’s rates.
Japan today has decided to not to hike interest rates.
They FORCED Japan to freeze hikes and keep the yen carry trade ATM wide open so Wall Street can keep siphoning free money.
The longer Japan delays the inevitable rate spike, the more catastrophic the unwind will be… markets will bleed, savings will evaporate, and the pain will be biblical.
BoJ insider
@yutokanzakireal
warned us months ago. Every single prediction is now unfolding in real time.
Japan’s only escape hatch? They’re integrating digital assets into their economy and allowed treating Bitcoin and XRP as Corporate Treasury assets. The ultimate off-ramp from this dollar-dominated trap.
The global financial system is on the brink.
Brace yourselves.
https://x.com/SternDrewCrypto/status/2083204024434889026
The US Treasury is stepping into the currency market to defend the yen.
Reports suggest it has informed banks that it may intervene by selling dollars and buying yen.
This is far bigger than a normal Japanese currency intervention.
The real question is: Why is the US Treasury getting involved in defending the yen?
Because if yen depreciation continues, the BOJ may eventually be forced to raise rates abruptly. That could trigger a violent yen appreciation and force the unwinding of massive yen-funded carry trades.
The sequence is simple:
Rapid yen depreciation → BOJ forced to hike → yen surges → carry trades unwind → global leverage gets liquidated.
That liquidation would not remain limited to Japan. It could spread through equities, credit, crypto and every market supported by cheap yen funding.
My conclusion:
They are using currency intervention to buy time and delay aggressive BOJ rate hikes.
This may be the biggest indication yet that policymakers are genuinely afraid of a disorderly carry-trade unwind.
They are not merely defending the yen.
They are defending the global leverage built on the yen.
https://x.com/Macrobysunil/status/2083184008033444320
Plausible analysis. If true it means Japan stays in the fold financially and politically. Fed can defend yen without spending a penny. Just by telling the pensions not to short yen to make more off carry. They get to keep their carry trade UBI (universal bankster income ) but at 160. Japan holds its treasuries and doesn’t try to repatriate via domestic bond ownership.
Extend and pretend for all parties. Benefits for all parties. The alternative was going to be very very tough for Japan. This freezes them in their current poor but not starving situation for a while. Extend and pretend is looking real good to me right now. This had the possibility of rocking boat big time. If true the carry trade unwind has been frozen in time for a bit. Very proactive. Very stabilizing.
Government and Central Bank officials will be trying to hammer home the idea that the Yen is under valued. Or Yen weakness doesn’t represent fundamentals. Or whatever other BS they can come up with like evil speculators.
New York FED is even getting involved. The fundamentals are nobody wants to keep their money in Japan. And they are heavily dependent on energy imports and food imports. Money is leaving left and right for a variety of reasons.
And the actual problem is in the Eurodollar market though. Nothing can replace the lack of dollar liquidity not being created. Which i why reserves like treasuries and gold are being tapped to provide dollars.
If the Eurodollar banks were creating sufficient dollar liquidity none of this would be a problem. The dollar would be dropping like a rock due to an over abundance of dollar credit.
Unfortunately central banks can’t do anything about the lack of balance sheet expansion or dollars in the Eurodollar market. They aren’t real central banks that issue and control money.
The Yen will be right back were it was before this current intervention in a month or so. Pushing it’s way to 170.00 to the dollar.
We really aren’t that far from a Asian currency crisis 2.0
If Japan goes it takes all the other Asian currencies with it including the Chinese Yuan.
And the kicker is. A whole bunch of dollars could be created to alleviate the dollar shortage in the short term if banks decided to expand their balance sheets.
All that would mean though is in a couple of months dollar demand would go right back up to repay these credits. Putting us right back where we started. Which is not enough dollars.
Isn’t the problem the Eurodollar banks have is that Europe is very short of fossil fuels. Europe is almost as bad off as Japan. So lending is low there. Car manufacturers are laying off workers, and chemical plant manufacturers close up shop.
US Banks in and Dubai and Singapore are likely just as lacking in lending opportunities, with a great deal of oil supply being kept from sale.
Until the world’s financial situation is better, there seems to be a lack of investment opportunities is many parts of the world.
Gail,
Most of the dollars that circulate outside the US were created by European and Japanese commercial banks.
That’s how the world outside the US worked around Triffin’s dilemma. The US could never supply enough dollars under any circumstances. To satisfy global dollar demand.
A lot of those Eurodollar credits get funneled into US treasuries. Why?
Because US treasuries are the preferred
collateral used in the process of creating dollar loans. Nobody buys treasury bills for the yield or return. They by them because they are collateral.
If Japan were to sell all of it’s US treasury bills. The short dated stuff. Not the mid to long term dated stuff or notes and bonds.
They would effectively have no collateral. The Idea that Japan can sell all their US treasury holding is misplaced. If Japanese banks stop providing dollar liquidity due to lack of collateral. Asia as a whole is going to burn to the grown due to lack of dollar funding.
The New York Fed which is an actual bank. Not like the FED Reserve. The New York Fed has actual dollars it can provide. Not bank reserves but actual dollars. But it doesn’t have endless dollars.
The intervention was are seeing is a band-aid that won’t last. It’s a damn shame Central Banks can’t print actual useful money in unlimited quantities.
If Central Banks could we wouldn’t even be talking about this because it wouldn’t be a problem.
Once the word gets out Fed is enforcing 160 no one will short the Yen.
Seems like enforcing the hawkish hold is more important than defending the currency. Yen devaluation and holding rates maintains the yen carry trade which helps maintain equities, with Tim’s pocketbook and trade dynamics being the collateral damage.
mydog,
I short the Yen every time they finish up with a round of intervention.
Because the fundamentals of why the yen is weakening haven’t changed just because they intervened.
HHH> thanks for walking us through it.
I gather you short it applying high leverage, right? Or through some proxy fin. vehicle instrument / metrics ?
Because it moved ~only 100% since 2012. But the jump since ~2021 is epic mountain slope profile hah.
Graphs w.out too much ads:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy
It’s not the short sellers bringing the Yen down. It’s money leaving Japan hand over fist. For a variety of different reasons.
And contraire to popular belief. If Japan’s central bank aggressively hiked interest rates.
It wouldn’t bring the money back into Japan. It would be like pouring gasoline on a fire and accelerate the money flowing out of Japan.
The US just bought yen for the first time since 1998.
This isn’t about saving Japan. It’s about saving the US bond market.
What just happened:
– Yen hit ¥164 last week, weakest since 1986
– Japan spent a record $52.8B defending it on Thursday
– Friday, the US joined in: NY Fed sold euros to buy yen, via Goldman & Morgan Stanley
– First joint US-Japan intervention in nearly 30 years
Why Washington cares:
– Japan is the biggest foreign holder of US Treasuries
– Tokyo defending the yen alone means selling dollars
– And Japan’s dollars sit in Treasuries
– Every solo intervention = UST selling, with 30Y yields already at 19-year highs
The elegant part:
– The US sold euros, not dollars
– Firepower for Tokyo without forcing it to dump Treasuries
– Defending the yen IS defending the US bond market
The catch:
– The Fed is expected to hike. The BoJ just held at 1%
– Intervention buys time. Only rate convergence fixes this
– Shorts are already targeting ¥162
America just chose its bond market over the dollar’s rally.
That tells you which one it’s worried about.
The current heatwave is expected to continue for an extended period. It feels surreal…
I expect that these plants would need a good supply of inexpensive natural gas liquids to operate.
These satellite onshore crude oil inventory data providers can’t even get US data right, what hope will they have in getting global data right?
Just because the data is available doesn’t mean it’s right.
Kpler had PADD 3 show a build of 4.1 million bbls last week. EIA reported -6.5 million bbls. That’s a 10.6 million bbl swing.
https://x.com/HFI_Research/status/2083063744599671140
All data is corrupted .
Most of the adaptation of HG Wells’ War of the Worlds omit the last chapter.
When the Martians arrived, the Kings , the Nobles, the Landowners, etc, etc had fled to the Continent while the remaining residents were left to fight for themselves.
After the Martians were killed off, they return, demanding back rent to the survivors who had more urgent things to do than meeting the payment deadline, and evicted those who could not pay without mercy. I assume a total martial law ‘until necessary’ would be the rule of the land, with summary execution of potential collaborators (i.e. people the ruling clas did not like) would have followed. The survivors are too tired to fight back , and the narrator, also no longer having any energy to get angry, just retires to his wife’s house (apparently unharmed) outside of London.
The Stephen Spielberg adaptation is, ironically, a bit more faithful to the original book since the Tom Cruise character, after all these troubles, is kicked out to the outside without even a word of thanks.
I laugh at the survivor communities. Today’s winners will retreat to regions inaccessible through roads or regions no avengers could reach, and will emerge back when the time is right, reimposing property rights and coldly eliminating any squatters who tried to survive, and wipe out survival communities with their better weapons since they , by their very own existences, will become a threat to the power structure.
People in the East Bloc got rude awakening after the fall of communism where the old landowners who fled to the West with their land documents returned with a fury not seen since WW2. Except in Russia, where a lot of documents were burnt down during WW2, the landowners mostly recovered what they had lost and evicted anyone who resisted, often with violence.
The landowners can fight for as long as they feel like while the survivalists can’t. Landowners are merciless and cruel, a nature which will not end after the end of BAU.
Kulm means the chews and Patagonia. In fact once war is fought with sticks and stones they will be at a crucial disadvantage.
They are likely to have the last remaining modern weapons and the battle will resemble that of between Cortez and Cuautemoc, the last Aztec ruler. After Cuautemoc was killed, his wife, a daughter of Montezuna, was given to a Spaniard and from her the Spanish dukedom of Montezuma(and whatever titles being added later) still exists.
I am betting more on the resemblance of the battle between the afghan herders and the americans, 2001-2020.
Chances are only ‘they’ will have the modern amenities too and some remnants?would rather enjoy it than continue their hardscrabble existences
As long as Kulm’s revenge fantasies stay in his head, all is well.
It is like setting the world back to the correct status
Primitive countries go back to their natural places
“The meek shall inherit the earth” – they always do. The herders-
Except landowners in the countryside now own hundreds of acres that they can only til with fancy machines powered by diesel and lots of replacement parts. There are no homes there, except for the ones of the owner. Also, many industrial sites and data centers in the countryside that are not of much use, unless electricity is available and fairly inexpensive, 24/7.
Ownership in the city is of relatively small plots of land with individual homes. The lots are too small to grow much food. Or of condominiums in high-rise buildings that will never work, with intermittent electricity.
Keeping roads maintained will be a huge issue in the future. Repaving is expensive in the best of times. Governments provide this service now. This is a service that will likely need to be cut back.
Now the cracks are beginning with the local government cutting back in bus service for the poor here in Dade Miami
Miami-Dade residents face uncertainty as Mayor Daniella Levine Cava’s proposed budget cuts threaten bus routes
By Steve Maugeri
Updated on: July 31, 2026 / 7:22 AM EDT / CBS Miami
https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/miami-dade-residents-face-uncertainty-as-budget-cuts-threaten-bus-routes/
When asked about the cuts, Levine Cava cited ongoing financial challenges.
“Unfortunately, we just don’t have money to run the system without a fare increase or other revenues,” she told CBS News Miami.
A proposal for a 50-cent fare increase was rejected by the county commission last year
For Acosta, the bus is a vital link in a 21-mile commute that spans from West Kendall to the Dadeland North Metrorail station, followed by a 12-mile trip up the Metrorail to the Jackson/UHealth stop. The journey currently takes her about an hour and a half each way.
“How will I make it on time to my job? Will I have to take extra time and extra buses?”
Acosta indicated she would prefer paying higher fares over losing access to her transportation.
What did Ernest Hemingway said about bankruptcy? We are at that stage
3hrs d/d commuting ( guessing non reimbursed ) omg, that’s painting feudalism like socially kind and more advanced system out of many tried out so far..
Bus service in many places in the US went badly downhill in 2020, and it has never recovered.
Not sure what kind of ” survivalist communities ” are you talking about.
Because, like +90% of all the key survival practitioners w. public outreach are die-hard ~capitalist leaning ( self-admittedly or NOT ) at the core. Many, most of them acquired the needed funds for their rural estates via years of publishing books, doing seminars, hands-on courses and then w. such proceeds gambled-up in stocks and e-coins.. ( many of them through several cycles i.e. since 1990-2000s ), bailing out before the market crashes, further amassing more$ to build even better and larger bug out properties.
This is ~almost total sync w. globo-master’s get rich quick attitudes now stampeding to say into Patagonia, obviously w.out that omnipresent heightened political rule streak. Also the intellectual and practical level comparison would be different.
Yet, if you meant ~hippie style or gov-nudged approaches ala Cuba post their early PO shock, these are “communal” only in certain sense, stemming from partial level of observation though. Not in full-scale applied practice..
Does not matter. If the returning PTB consider they are a threat they will be cleansed
You haven’t lived in the hood. Most people have absolutely no idea what violent chaos collapse actually brings. Large city gangs will branch out – there are no movies that do justice to what will come to many (not all) areas. Cannibal warlords of Liberia (old vice episode) gives some idea.
Good luck
The gangsters become feudal lords and there are no shortage of movies about middle ages
The biggest mistake people make is not believing in poverty. They often blame the poor, convincing themselves that those living in poverty must have done something wrong. In the end, they listen to the liars who exploit them, only to discover—often in a brutal way—who was truly foolish and what the truth really is.
except poverty is often related to iqs.
Not all smarties are rich but very few poor are intelligent, and a fool and his money are often separated very quickly.
in a utilitarian way, the liars who exploit them are smarter, so the money goes from those who are less able to use the money to those who can use the money wisely. The swindlers send their children, who tend to inherit their parents’ intelligence and meanness, to better schools where they accomplish greater things.
Yes, to a large degree, being poor is their own fault, inheriting bad genes.
Even the kings are executed. That is the true message of poverty.
I want to be a tiny and disgusting organism, when the giants fall. So that I can eat them.
The life of a wood louse has much to recommend it……
I embrace poverty from a western standard. It’s fabulous! From the Mumbai standard not so much.
Anyone who basks in the company of trees regularly is not poor.
That’s sane and wise attitude in these times.
Couldn’t resist, MG. Germ warfare begins @ 03:23
This is a good parallel, except that cartoons, with their grotesque exaggeration, rapid pace, and fairy-tale characters, make it seem funny.
Merlin fights back rather defensively against Mim, who is the aggressor. indeed. I doubt the populations will be as passive in the end.
Jupiter man says investment scam stole his life savings, forcing him to start over at 67
A 67-year-old man from Jupiter says he lost more than $700,000 and now relies on a bicycle for transportation while searching for work
JUPITER, Fla. —
A 67-year-old man says he lost more than $700,000, along with his home, vehicle and retirement savings, after he says he may have fallen victim to what experts call a “pig butchering” scam.
A “pig butchering” scam is a fast-growing form of fraud that often targets older adults by combining romance and fake cryptocurrency investments.
Karl Geissler, who has lived in Jupiter for nearly three decades, says the scam unfolded over the course of nearly a year, beginning with what seemed like an innocent wrong-number text.
“I get, of course, a random text. Somebody looking for Judy,” he told WPBF.
Instead of ignoring it, Geissler responded jokingly.
“I texted back, ‘This isn’t Judy. This is a single guy down in South Florida,'” he said.
The conversation continued. Geissler says the woman, who went by Aileen, claimed to live in Los Angeles and originally be from Singapore. He says they began talking every day. Over time, Geissler says they developed what he believed was a genuine relationship.
https://www.wpbf.com/article/jupiter-man-says-investment-scam-stole-his-life-savings-forcing-him-to-start-over-at-67/73288253
So sad, should have adopted a pet kitty cat or puppy for some love
Well, the zjupiterian was less smart than an earthling.
He sent a supposed woman $700k without ever meeting her? Someone scored there. Usually the take is a couple grand. “I need money to come to USA and our love nest”.
These have grown increasingly sophisticated. They create avirtual women the mark deems reasonable not a 22 year old hotty. Online profiling creates like interests in the virtual woman and the “chance,” meeting.
Just add a moron and your in business.
Poverty is related to too many people for resources. Some people have to be pushed out. This is the way evolution works. It is survival of the best adapted.
Evolution is not based on survival of the most politically adapted. It’s based on survival of the most biologically adapted. Only kulm would think that the genocided populations of civilizational history were genocided based on their low evolutionary fitness. The rest of us would agree that those that committed the genocides did so based on some combination of Elite political culture and the superior strength of their resource base rather than any primary evolutionary dynamic.
Some things are more self-organizing than others.
I strongly agree with you that the distinction is relevant.
The claim ” I’m from the self organizing system I’m here to help you” is best regarded with scepticism.
Self organizing is a two way street.
Ha ha great line for a Far Side cartoon, dog.
Because right-wingers follow Ayn Rand, who is to philosophy what L. Ron Hubbard is to religion.
Right wingers aren’t libertarian. Right wingers are far more Nietszchean than Randian.
Rand wasn’t a libertarian; she believed that only certain people had rights.
I believe that you are mistaken on both counts unless on the second count you are taking about fetuses and people outside of civilization which just means she’s a civilized person with political views bleeding into her philosophy.
Objectivism and libertarianism differ in a big way: libertarians reject all forms of state power, while Ayn Rand’s Objectivists oppose it only when it clashes with the interests of the capitalist elite. They back wars in the Middle East to secure oil for Western corporations or approve of state actions against Indigenous peoples to claim land for white settlers. Rand also supports a racial hierarchy rather than universal human rights.
Thanks. I agree with you that structural objectivism — which is not a politics but a philosophy that holds that truth is based in Reason and as such is objectively attainable — and political libertarianism are incompatible. Rand never understood civilization structurally because mature cultural anthropology arrived after her time. As I said last month I’m not very familiar with her work but her critique of that idiot Nietzsche was spot-on.
Philosophical objectivism as a school of thought doesn’t support or oppose the State unless it incorporates mature cultural anthropology, in which case it opposes the State based on Reason; therefore, the Objectivists you refer to who you say are politically opportunistic in their ‘objectivism’ are, in doing so, not being philosophical Objectivists.
Stereotypical nouveau riche ‘libertarians’ supporting warmongering are merely self-proclaimed libertarians. Ron Paul, for example, is more of a real political libertarian.
But again, political libertarianism is incompatible with true Objectivism because any well-rounded Objectivist like myself does not believe in the legitimacy of the State and, by extension, civilization – and without civilization there is no money for capitalism to exist.
BTW, I believe that you are mistaken about Rand’s support of racial hierarchy. Might your mistakes be because you are referring to her early work when she was influenced by Nietszche before she learned to think better and then rejected him?
It ~begins ( again).
So, in 24hrs a swarm of 50k very young male migrants stormed Spanish enclave (exclave) Ceuta on the northern African coast, some drowned taking the ~swimming route across the barriers. The EU-Spain mil/police did virtually nothing, cell phones for coordination not stopped either ( easy to cancel Moroccan sim numbers ), the local mayor called on central Spanish govs for real support asap, so far they pledged ridiculous bellow 100x re-enforcement.
The migrants are trying to use various “anchoring” legal loopholes then to claim asylum status ( and expecting to be moved to continent proper ) etc. In response .it PM Meloni ~threatens ( ehm ) to block single EU border arrangements because of Spain inaction.
Very similar vibes with previous waves of European bound conquest by various ethnicities and cultures over the millennia, as the legacy guys well armed just stay there and starring on the situation w.out support, issued proper command etc.
And as expected in next more massive waves just leaving their post altogether..
__
PS in one vid a local – aged Spanish inhabitant is shown celebrating wildly the brake-in with them saying they have nothing and now they can share abundance with us, lol.
for pic / vid search google: ” ceuta morocco migrants “
Regarding the cause of the migration now, Time magazine mentions the following:
https://time.com/article/2026/07/31/ceuta-spain-morocco-africa-explainer/
Spain’s interior ministry references an earlier court ruling behind the latest influx, arguing in a statement that it “believes that human trafficking networks are exploiting a court ruling to encourage the flow of undocumented migrants, mostly young people.” A June 29 ruling by the Spanish Supreme Court stopped authorities from summarily returning migrants who arrive in Ceuta and Melilla by sea, at least not without due process. While it did not legalize irregular entry or guarantee that those swimmers could remain in Spain, Spanish broadcaster RTVE reported on Thursday that the ruling spread on Moroccan social media, reportedly prompting people to try to enter Spain by swimming to Ceuta.
This is a link to Zerohedge’s reporting of the situation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/spains-ceuta-invaded-thousands-illegals-and-military-aged-men-storm-border-morocco
“The immediate effect is to overwhelm Ceuta’s border security, law enforcement, housing, and humanitarian capacity.”
Let them starve.
Meloni wants to use the natural water barrier rather than to build a wall?
No wonder she doesn’t get along with Trump. They don’t share wall building hobbies. How long is the extraction zone deal good for? Just get to the extraction zone and then they transport you to the continent. Sounds like a deal to me. Of course there will be strong demand. And whose to say when anyone actually entered the extraction zone? They must honor the offer. To do otherwise would not represent the fair policies Brussels allows its constituents. Once the hero of hormooz is out USA neo liberals come home to Brussels like the prodigal son.
Critical thinking is not popular. Gang psychology predominates. Choose your team. Soon there is only one. That happens with gangs. There’s a tipping point when it’s really not wise to be gang x and everyone is gang y.
Alas, most of my, radical Left-wing (‘champagne socialist’) Spanish family are like that:
‘They are so poor, so we should share’.
Xabier, you likely now the score.
But our US/CAN friends as coming mostly from sub-urbanite setting can’t fully appreciate that I’m afraid.
We ( legacy vs fresh migrants ) being different cultures w. very different path dependency histories. I don’t like this quick ” re-union of humanity ” narrative one bit.
Picture large Scandinavian or DE/Austrian/CH city these days.
Early after-noon temps 36-38C in down-town. Now fully veiled young ladies each with 3-5x kids ( toddlers & pre-school age ) aka benefits income stream for now ( and future legacy pop replacement ) are venturing into public transport en masse.
Are they crazy ?
Why would you bring infants into such horrible weather?
Is it because their husband-master allows only such timing window aka during his lunch siesta ?
Is it because avoiding morning and late after-noon rush hours in public transport w. likely more negative attitudes towards them from local folk at work ?
..
.
All the above ?
Simply, to the above – my hunch is I don’t care at all.
This should be taking place and possibly bettering over time in their countries of origin on their own merits – NOT here.
I’m glad I won’t be around for the grand replacement finale.
If you destroy nations people leave
If on the other hand some degree of economic fairness is pursued and standard of living increases most will not leave. Slicing the pie is hard when you hold the knife but it wouldn’t take much.
There’s always going to be a culture in a nation even if it is supposedly multi cultural.
The farther the water draws back the bigger the wave. I’m not sure why the hand has chosen Islam but it’s apparent they have. The hero of Hormooz has worked for this in the extreme. Radically more so than Obama who was accused of the same on certain am band radio broadcasts.
The hero of Hormooz can express his distaste for western Europe immigration policies and tie that into domestic policies but the reality is what happened in Europe was to a large extent of very expensive destruction of nations. A legacy Trump pretended he was not but is. What would be the cost of policies that allow standard of living increase compared to military cost of destroying nations? The WW2 model where nations are destroyed then built back is long long gone in a finite world. Infrastructure is precious.
Is that such a terrible proposition? I’ll cut you a few checks to fix up your pad rather than you moving in with me. Elimination of MIC overhead pays for it many times over anyway.
Ha ha. They are breaking eggs for omelettes not seeking best decisions for continuence. Continuence is obviously not desired when these decisions are evaluated. Au contraire. Radical change is desired and is observed. The economic differences must remain stark. That allows the angst surrounding this topic.
The obvious outcome. No one has a nice pad. Lowest common denominator. Spending gobs of money blowing up pads and while expensive the amount of funding is so vast that progress is observed.
Behavior always reveals motive not words.
Fair points.
We know now [ for sure ] that Europe has been thrown under the bus by the key players ( US, RU, CHN ) in terms of pecking order for the future, incl. share / allowance of resources per industry and per capita. There could be some re-adjusting here and there on the edges but the case is closed.
So, it’s necessary man up to reality and don’t freak out by many incoming confirmations of this mega trend. Migration related escapades would be certainly one of the key vectors how it all unfolds. I’m just baffled by the surrealism of it, not many people care about it anymore ( not able take lessons from previous grave mistakes of others around to observe ala UK / NL-Benelux /FR/Sweden/Merkelistan/.. ), and getting worse on that front.
How the system is diving into debts
The government is short 1.5 billion euros. One-fifth of companies owe it money.
The Financial Administration has the highest number of debtors on record, with limited liability companies from the Bratislava Region—operating in wholesale and retail—dominating the list
As of the end of June, 70,436 companies owed money to the Social Insurance Agency, the Financial Administration, or the General Health Insurance Company—representing nearly one-fifth of the total number of 389,715 businesses, according to an analysis by CRIF – Slovak Credit Bureau, the credit registry administrator.
The statistics include companies that are not in liquidation, are not dissolving without liquidation, and have not faced bankruptcy or restructuring in the past or currently. “A debtor is at risk of insolvency, especially if it faces the threat of being unable to pay its debts,” warned CRIF’s chief analyst, Jana Marková. Limited liability companies dominate among debtors (97.2 percent), followed at a considerable distance by corporations (1.4 percent).
The Financial Administration has the most debtors—60,902 entities—with their total tax arrears amounting to 1.4 billion euros. The Social Insurance Agency’s list includes 20,462 debtors with a debt of nearly 101 million euros. The state-run General Health Insurance Company (VšZP) has 9,565 debtors with a debt of just under 29 million euros. Each of the more than 70,000 debtors appears on at least one list, with many appearing on multiple lists simultaneously.
The concentration of high-risk entities is highest in the Bratislava Region (45.2 percent). From a sectoral perspective, the most at-risk companies operate in wholesale and retail trade, and repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles (18.8 percent); in professional, scientific, and technical activities (17.1 percent); in administrative and support services (16 percent), in construction (11.3 percent), and in industrial manufacturing (9.8 percent).
Translated by DeepL.
https://www.trend.sk/spravy/statu-chyba-poldruha-miliardy-eur-peniazu-mu-dlhuje-patina-firiem?itm_modul=react_trend_timelinebox&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=3&itm_cb_position=top_sidebar_1
I don’t remember seeing similar statistics for the US.
How Gemini views it:
The data points from the article—a state revenue shortfall of €1.5 billion and 20% of companies in arrears—perfectly illustrate the thermodynamic and financial unraveling described by Gail Tverberg’s framework. On Our Finite World, financial statistics are viewed as secondary reflections of primary physical energy flows.
Here is how this specific €1.5 billion deficit maps directly to the systemic collapse model:
1. Debt as a Broken Promise on Future Energy
In a growing, high-EROI (Energy Return on Investment) economy, businesses easily capture enough cheap energy to generate a physical surplus, which translates into financial profit. Debt and tax obligations are essentially promises that this future surplus will continue to exist.
When a full fifth (20%) of companies cannot meet their obligations to the state, it indicates that underlying physical economic growth has stalled. The global energy required to generate the wealth to pay those arrears is physically missing. The companies are effectively starved of the “metabolic” throughput needed to convert raw resources into the surplus the state demands.
2. The Unaffordable Overhead of Complexity
A state apparatus represents a massive layer of structural complexity—funding pensions, healthcare, infrastructure maintenance, and bureaucracies. A core premise of the “Limits to Growth” model is that this complexity requires a continuously increasing flow of net energy to sustain.
The €1.5 billion shortfall is a symptom that the base of the economy (the corporate sector) can no longer carry the overhead of this complexity. The system is hitting a boundary where maintaining the current government structure is becoming thermodynamically unaffordable. Systemic collapse rarely looks like a sudden explosion; it looks precisely like this—a creeping inability to fund maintenance and obligations.
3. The Affordability Squeeze on the Margin
The Maximum Power Principle dictates that systems will draw in as much energy as possible to build complexity. However, as resource extraction becomes more difficult and global net energy shrinks, the weakest components of the system get squeezed out first.
That 20% of failing companies represents the margin of the economy that is no longer viable in a high-cost energy environment. They cannot pass their increased operational costs onto consumers whose own wages (purchasing power) are stagnating due to the exact same energy constraints.
4. The Sovereign Collapse Feedback Loop
When 20% of the corporate base stops feeding revenue upward, the state is forced into a destructive feedback loop to cover the €1.5 billion gap. According to the systemic collapse model, this triggers a predictable cascade:
Taxing the Survivors: The state will likely attempt to raise taxes on the remaining 80% of solvent businesses. This further drains the viable companies, pushing the next weakest tier into insolvency.
Sovereign Borrowing: The state transfers the unpayable promises from the corporate level to the government level by issuing more bonds. This attempts to pull forward future energy that will likely never materialize.
Currency Debasement: If borrowing fails, the state prints money to cover the €1.5 billion, destroying citizen purchasing power and leading to a localized standard-of-living collapse.
Ultimately, these figures are not merely an accounting or management problem. The €1.5 billion hole and the 20% corporate insolvency rate show a dissipative structure that is beginning to shed complexity because the physics of the underlying energy supply can no longer sustain it.
https://share.gemini.google/TYzN6aHZNfJS
Grok:
The Slovak data on unpaid obligations (≈1.5 billion EUR owed by nearly one-fifth of companies) aligns with early-to-mid stage indicators of the financial and fiscal stress that Gail Tverberg analyzes on Our Finite World as part of a broader, energy-constrained systemic contraction—not as an isolated national problem, but as a predictable symptom of an economy reaching limits.
Key data from the article (as of end-June, reported 31 July 2026)
70,436 companies (out of 389,715 total businesses ≈ 18%) owe money to the Financial Administration (tax authority), Social Insurance Agency, or General Health Insurance Company. These are going concerns not in liquidation, bankruptcy, or restructuring.
Breakdown of the ≈1.5 billion EUR shortfall:
Financial Administration: 60,902 debtors, 1.4 billion EUR in tax arrears.
Social Insurance: 20,462 debtors, ≈101 million EUR.
VšZP (state health insurer): 9,565 debtors, ≈29 million EUR.
Many firms appear on multiple lists. Dominant form: limited-liability companies (97.2%). Highest concentration in Bratislava region (45.2%). Leading sectors: wholesale/retail + vehicle repair (18.8%), professional/scientific/technical activities (17.1%), administrative/support services (16%), construction (11.3%), manufacturing (9.8%).
Analyst note: these debtors are in “threatening insolvency,” especially payment incapacity.
This is a direct hit to government cash flow (taxes + social contributions that fund pensions, healthcare, and operations).
Correspondence to Tverberg’s framework (Our Finite World)
Tverberg treats the economy as a self-organizing, dissipative structure powered by energy (especially oil) and other resources. Growth, rising wages, and the ability to service rising debt all depend on cheap, abundant energy. When energy/resource limits tighten, the system does not produce sustained high prices; instead it produces recession, falling affordability for non-elites, broken supply chains, rising defaults, and pressure on government finances. Debt is a claim on future physical goods and services; when those become scarcer or less affordable, defaults rise and the debt/financial system comes under stress.
Specific mappings:
Rising business defaults / non-payment of taxes and social contributions as a leading indicator of contraction
In a growing economy, firms can generally meet tax and payroll-tax obligations. In a slowing or contracting one, discretionary cash disappears first. Tverberg repeatedly notes that debt defaults (and by extension unpaid government obligations) become an increasing problem once growth falters; laid-off workers and struggling firms default more readily, and interest rates or collection pressures then rise further. The Slovak figure—nearly 20% of firms already in arrears totaling 1.5 billion EUR, concentrated in trade, services, construction and manufacturing—is exactly the pattern expected when affordability and cash-flow constraints bite. Tax arrears are functionally a form of soft default on the state’s claims.
Government revenue shortfall and fiscal stress
Governments rely on continuous inflows of taxes and social contributions to service their own debt, pay interest, and fund promised transfers (pensions, healthcare, etc.). Tverberg emphasizes that high government debt levels make interest costs a growing claim on tax revenue, and that in a shrinking economy those revenues themselves come under pressure. A 1.5 billion EUR hole (material for a country of Slovakia’s size) is a concrete illustration of the mismatch between financial promises and the physical/financial capacity to honor them. The linked Trend piece on state debt having already crossed a critical threshold and interest payments flowing abroad reinforces the same dynamic.
Sectoral and regional concentration matches expected patterns under energy/affordability stress
Wholesale/retail, construction, manufacturing and business services are energy- and transport-intensive or highly sensitive to consumer and business spending. When oil/energy costs or overall demand weaken, these sectors feel cash-flow pressure first. Tverberg’s analyses of recession dynamics and “not-enough-to-go-around” situations predict precisely such uneven but widespread strain rather than uniform collapse.
Part of a larger debt-bubble and self-organizing-system process
Tverberg argues the post-1980s/2008 debt expansion (enabled by falling interest rates and abundant energy) has supported the appearance of growth. Once energy limits or higher real costs reverse that, the bubble becomes vulnerable: defaults rise, asset prices can fall, banks and insurers face losses, and governments lose revenue while their own obligations remain. Widespread tax and social-contribution arrears are an early fiscal manifestation of that process. The system does not collapse overnight; the Maximum Power Principle and historical patterns point to gradual shedding of less-efficient producers and rising conflict over remaining resources, with financial and governmental stress as intermediate stages.
Quantitative scale in context
1.5 billion EUR is roughly 1–1.5% of Slovakia’s recent annual GDP order-of-magnitude (exact GDP figures vary by source/year, but the arrears are large enough to matter for fiscal balances).
Affecting nearly one-fifth of the business population is a high penetration rate for “threatening insolvency.” In Tverberg’s terms this is consistent with an economy already past peak easy growth and into the phase where many entities can no longer meet fixed claims (taxes, interest, wages, input costs).
Caveats and limits of the correspondence
The article is a snapshot of one small open economy inside the EU/eurozone; Tverberg’s analyses are global and energy-centric. Local factors (tax administration, enforcement, sector structure, EU transfers, inflation/interest-rate environment) also matter.
Not every arrears episode equals imminent systemic collapse; collection efforts, restructuring, or temporary growth can reduce the stock. However, the pattern—broad-based, multi-agency non-payment by going concerns—is the kind of signal her framework treats as evidence that physical limits are translating into financial and fiscal ones.
Collapse, in her writing, is usually described as progressive (recession → defaults → broken supply chains → reduced complexity/government capacity) rather than a single discrete event.
In short, the data show a non-trivial share of the productive base already unable to meet core claims on the state. That is precisely the kind of micro-to-macro transmission mechanism Tverberg expects when an energy- and resource-constrained system can no longer generate the surplus needed to service the accumulated financial and governmental promises.
https://grok.com/share/c2hhcmQtNA_b5373e0a-1eb3-4a97-ad5b-f31752a2f710
DeepSeek:
The article’s headline and key figures—a €1.5 billion shortfall for the Slovak state and tax arrears concentrated in one‑fifth of all firms—can be read as a textbook symptom of the systemic collapse dynamic described on ourfiniteworld.com (Gail Tverberg’s blog). Tverberg analyzes the economy as an energy‑driven, self‑organizing system that collapses when the surplus it can extract from the physical world no longer suffices to maintain its complexity. Below, I map the two data points from the Trend article directly onto that framework.
1. The state is missing €1.5 billion – a failure of surplus extraction
In Tverberg’s model, taxes represent the government’s claim on a portion of the surplus energy/resource flow that circulates in the economy. When the economy is healthy—i.e., when it is generating ample surplus from high‑EROI energy—profits are strong, businesses pay their taxes, and the state can finance infrastructure, education, social safety nets and debt service.
A €1.5 billion hole in planned revenues indicates that the system is no longer producing enough surplus for the state to capture its expected share. In a typical Slovak budget, such a shortfall could represent 5–10 % of total tax revenue, a breach that forces the government into one of the collapse‑accelerating responses that Tverberg outlines: cutting services (reducing complexity), borrowing more (increasing claims on a future that can’t deliver), or printing money (seeding inflation). All three options erode the very trust and functionality that keep a complex society together.
2. A fifth of firms owe money to the state – the diffuse, systemic nature of distress
The fact that 20 % of firms are in arrears is critical. This is not the failure of a few marginal companies; it is a broad‑based signal that a significant slice of the corporate sector cannot generate enough value to meet its basic obligations. From an energy‑system perspective, this pattern emerges when the cost of obtaining energy (and therefore all energy‑intensive inputs) rises relative to the selling price of goods and services, squeezing profit margins across entire industries.
Tverberg often notes that tax arrears rise before a financial crisis becomes headline news, because businesses delay tax payments as a last resort to stay afloat. The high percentage suggests that the problem is structural—likely tied to Europe‑wide high energy costs, disrupted supply chains, and a macroeconomic environment in which demand cannot support both production costs and the full weight of taxation. This is precisely the “limits to growth” scenario: the real resources available to the economy are declining, but the nominal claims (debts, expected tax revenues, promises of services) continue to grow, setting up a collision that ends in a forced simplification of the system.
3. How this fits the collapse sequence
On ourfiniteworld.com, the typical collapse sequence runs:
Energy supply becomes constrained or its cost rises irreversibly →
The economy’s physical output per capita stops growing →
Business profits shrink, layoffs and wage stagnation follow →
Firms defer or default on taxes, creating government revenue gaps →
Governments respond by cutting spending or expanding debt →
Citizens lose faith, the financial system seizes up, and complexity unravels.
The Slovak data (a large unanticipated budget hole coupled with pervasive corporate tax arrears) sits exactly at the tax‑default stage of that sequence. It is a clear leading indicator that the underlying resource surplus is insufficient to sustain the current level of social and administrative complexity. If the trend continues, the state will find itself forced to choose between defaulting on its own obligations, imposing austerity that fuels political disintegration, or resorting to inflationary finance—all of which are hallmarks of systemic collapse as analyzed on the site.
In short, the article’s numbers do not describe a simple fiscal mis‑management; they reflect an economy that has already hit a resource ceiling, where the surplus needed to power both private profits and public budgets is evaporating. That is the core dynamic that Gail Tverberg identifies repeatedly as the engine of societal collapse.
https://chat.deepseek.com/share/wjytg5u4e9745tny0q
Romania shuts down both nuclear power reactors as Danube levels plunge, PM urges energy savings
https://www.romania-insider.com/both-nuclear-reactors-shutdown-danube-romania-july-2026
Hungary PM: “Factories and industrial plants may be temporarily shut down as an energy crisis could begin on Monday”
https://24.hu/belfold/2026/07/30/magyar-peter-energiakrizis-helyzet-leallas/
Data centers consume water.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wx7ToT0G0qo&pp=ygUVRGF0YSBjZW50ZXIgd2F0ZXIgaXNl
FR closed more of them ( units ).
Low levels of river are a problem. So can be high temperature of river water. The two go together.
Water availability varies greatly, from season to season. Businesses that want to operate year around have a problem.
Irans oil refinery complex at Abadan reportably hit.
https://x.com/i/status/2082629544704446776
From your link:
Abadan holds one of the world’s oldest and largest refineries, sitting right on the Iraqi border at the head of the Gulf, which makes any strike there carry weight far beyond the target itself
-Washington has spared Iran’s energy infrastructure through the entire war, hitting military and maritime sites instead, so what exactly got hit in Abadan matters enormously
No big retaliation so far so maybe it was not the refinery complex.
If the war can end without the infrastructure getting destroyed it’s very optimistic for the region and hence IC. Cooperation based on black liquid wealth and not willing to lose that. It’s a start.
The spice must flow is good for IC. The anti thesis is not.
The Yemen communication was quite poignant. Jizan. Yanbu. Abquaik
Now add the attack on USA infrastructure in Egypt. No one takes responsibility. Get used to this as drone technology proliferates.
Guys, something crazy is about to go down or already going down.
Google searches for “Medical Emergency, Chest Pain, Headache, Back Pain”
ALL at all time HIGHS last month (25 year history)
Multiple canaries in coalmine.
https://trends.google.com/trends/
Cliffhigh predicts the jabbed will reach a moment of clarity go ballistic
https://x.com/Daniell64334313/status/2082889682099335649
I have a friend who got every jab available
He is not sick.
He smokes 2 packs per day.
For some reason cigarettes protect you i have a similar mate who done the same
Could nicotine help against Covid-19?
28 April 2020
A new hypothesis may explain why smokers seem to get infected less often
Jean-Pierre Changeux is Emeritus Professor of Neuroscience at the Institut Pasteur and conducts research in molecular neuroscience within the HBP. As a pioneer in this field, he also follows biochemical and neurological questions around the new Coronavirus, particularly a potential protective role of nicotine. After a surprisingly low number of smokers among Covid-19 patients was found in a French study, led by Prof. Zahir Amoura at Pitié Salpétrière University Hospital in Paris, Changeux and the clinician together published “A nicotinic hypothesis for Covid-19”. The authors stress the substantial health risks of smoking, including more severe symptoms for those that do get infected, but tests of nicotine patches are soon to start.
https://www.humanbrainproject.eu/en/follow-hbp/news/could-nicotine-help-against-covid-19/
‘colds’ are respiratory detoxes and ‘SARS-COV-2’ are the associated detox signaling exosomes. Cigarette smoke exposure physically damages these delicate structures, inhibiting the detox signaling system.nicotine as a stimulant may also inhibit going into detox mode.
Yes, that’s similar forcing known for ages as per (deep) coal miners situation. Not only lowered life-span TODAY w. hq respirators and forced high volume aircon down there, but the clearly deteriorated health status before that. So, imagine the impact 50-100yrs ago.. w.out all these toyz and medical attention.
That was actually one of the reasons for European closure of these mines, well before deposit exhaustion. Because the salaries and health exposure benefits/compensations were resulting into x-times higher wage levels vs Asian/African competition levels.
They earned almost like ~upper middle classes, plus spa-vacations, plus higher level pension plan w. earlier date etc.
Now, it can’t be automated/droned up beyond certain level, the amount of hands-on work approach is massive as there always oddity around the corner, gas buildup, small earthquake, fires, trapped crews, etc..
Exosomes and detoxing not withstanding. there are other ways of getting nicotine other than smoking.
A standard cigarette delivers about 1 to 2 milligrams of nicotine to your bloodstream. By comparison, the nicotine in nightshade vegetables is measured in microscopic trace amounts (nanograms).
The Food Equivalent of 1 Cigarette:
Eggplants: You would need to eat 10 kilograms (22 lbs), which is roughly 20 to 35 medium eggplants. Eggplants have the highest trace concentration among common foods.
Ripe Tomatoes: You would need to eat 10 to 14 kilograms (22 to 31 lbs), which is equivalent to eating 60 to 94 medium tomatoes.
Potatoes: You would need to eat about 140 kilograms (310 lbs), which translates to roughly 940 to 1,400 medium-sized potatoes.
Tobacco is a genetic anomaly in the plant kingdom. While a potato or tomato uses a tiny fraction of its energy to make parts-per-billion trace nicotine, tobacco plants dedicate a massive amount of their biological resources to creating it. Tobacco leaves are made of up to 3% pure nicotine by dry weight, making them roughly 100,000 to 1,000,000 times more concentrated than any vegetable in your kitchen.
Well, people evidently experimented w. nicotine like substances for millennia. Often times various legumes when roasted ( and other tricks ) served as potent kick or mixed up w. real hallucinogens and various roots etc. Yet traditionally applied chiefly in rare shaman-guidance like seances..
Ask the indigenous folk for the details, dosage, .. on almost every continent.
From the above stems, that likely nicotine was historically chosen because of its unique combo of properties as it could be used more ~regularly w. out immediate influence on daily 24/365 duties ( vs. say other stuff put into water pipe ), i.e. no apparent dizziness etc.
In short nicotine was deemed MPP ~compatible, hence used to the max. by the pop of recent eras.
So did my buddy Adam. He just died in his sleep two weeks ago. (43)
https://www.zaagman.com/obituaries/Adam-Louis-Erber?obId=49118837
4th friend I’ve lost so far this year + my dad.
But who’s counting rite?
I’m sure you will be just fine Kulm!
Smoking is a disgusting habit that will kill you deader than dog shit. Pulmonary more than lungs but who is counting.
Please refer to Rule 1: “Nothing ever happens.”
This data blip will come and go and be forgotten. G-trends shows a rightmost point as a projection from the newest data – it is already heading back down.
People at here do not refer to that kind of rules except for a delusionist who still believes in Musk’s empty claims
Exactamundo!
And if somehow someday pop gets agitated around this topic of previous harm done to them – it won’t be genuine revolt but just misused this specific agenda for some ” new ” political outfit capturing wind into the sails trying to get ahead.
How they control angst is beyond me but they can and do. All part of the recipes.
Ukraine recipe only has a sprinkling of a angst.
Iran recipe has more but only a teaspoon.
Several graphs are shown:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/diesel-epicenter-supply-squeeze-goldman
“Diesel Is At Epicenter Of Supply Squeeze,”: Goldman
Analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven, introduced a new global refinery-runs nowcast, estimating that global runs declined by 6.5 million barrels per day from a year earlier in late July.
Non-OECD throughput dropped by 7 million barrels per day, led by the Middle East, Russia, and China. Higher utilization in the Americas and Africa offset only about 30% of the weakness elsewhere, even as U.S. refinery utilization exceeded 97%, the highest since 2018.
The decline in global refinery runs is tightening fuel supplies just as demand heads toward the fourth-quarter peak season. The analysts said diesel inventories remain below seasonal norms while exports continue to slide, leaving the fuel especially vulnerable to further supply disruptions.
“Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze,” the analysts warned. . .
The European gasoil crack has surged above $70 a barrel as refiners run near capacity, with diesel and jet supplies constrained by outages, shipping risks, and reduced Russian exports.
Are they reading four months old OFW articles and comments? Because we have been saying it for months.
The Paks Nuclear Power Plant is set to be completely shut down due to low water levels in the Danube; the shortfall will be covered by imports
https://www.aktuality.sk/clanok/0sxJzPE/jadrovu-elektraren-paks-caka-uplne-odstavenie-pre-nizku-hladinu-dunaja-vypadok-pokryje-dovoz/
Where ? Timbuktu ?
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/france-shuts-off-more-nuclear-power-as-heat-builds-across-europe
Only watermelons can save us! fortunately it will be a bumper crop with all the heat.
This is the problem with trying to cool nuclear power plants with river water. There isn’t enough of it. It tends to heat up during hot periods. Many nuclear power plants are built on the ocean, in the US.
I wonder what the proposed small nuclear power plants will use. I even saw an idea of putting one underground. They cannot possibly have water cooling and run turbines with this water.
Supposedly they are going to use *non water evaporation air cooling systems and also using the excess heat for various insitu / nearby power exchange purposes.
__
* these are too costly ( basically a very dense type of air cooler ~plate ) for full scale NPPs so only few went this route ( Gulfies ? ) instead of more common water cooling approach
Assuming imported electricity is available in quantity.
From the Council on Criminal Justice, regarding US homicide rates per 100,000 people:
https://counciloncj.org/whats-driving-the-drop-in-homicide-how-low-might-it-go/
After an historic surge starting in 2020, the homicide rate in the United States has declined sharply. Over the past three years, homicides have fallen by an average of 16% per year; this includes CCJ’s finding of a 21% drop from 2024 to 2025 in a sample of 35 large cities. If a similar decline is reflected in national data, the U.S. homicide rate in 2025 would be the lowest observed since at least 1900 (see Figure 1). Applying a 20% decline from 2024 to 2025 suggests a national homicide rate of 4.0 per 100,000 residents in 2025, eclipsing the previous historic low of 4.4 per 100,000 recorded in 2014.
In fact, looking at the chart provided, the rate is the lowest it has ever been, going back to 1902. The previous time that the homicide was almost this low was 1951 to 1964, which was a relatively peaceful time.
Reasons given by various people in the field include:
“significant investments in community violence intervention”
“Intentional, focused efforts by law enforcement and prosecutors to address violence (e.g., precision policing, prioritization of individuals with repeat violence-related offenses)”
“City leadership adopting a whole-government approach to public safety, rather than relying solely on police or carceral responses”
” Many cities focused enforcement and prevention on the small number of neighborhoods and groups driving a large share of shootings, improved shooting investigations, and got the courts moving again. As prosecutors and courts worked through backlogged cases, some high-risk repeat offenders were detained, sentenced, or held longer pretrial, which reduced violence through incapacitation concentrated in the places hit hardest.” (Mostly Black)
” As the pandemic period eased, daily routines normalized, more people were out and about, and informal guardianship returned—more “eyes on the street,” bystanders, and community presence that can help defuse conflicts before they escalate.”
“The FBI national crime statistics for 2024 (the most recent year for which we have federal data, because 2025 numbers have not yet been released) show declines across all violent and property crime categories. This suggests that the decline is caused by national, not local, forces. The largest driver of the decline appears to be the federal American Rescue Plan Act, which allocated $362 billion to state, local, tribal, and territorial governments to help address pandemic-related impacts. These funds helped stabilize local governments reeling from lost pandemic revenue, and included broad prevention funding for employees who work most directly with young people at risk of violence and victimization, including teachers, counselors, community health workers, and other support personnel.”
“the conditions that contributed to the sharp rise in violence in 2020 and 2021 receded as the pandemic subsided. Institutions of collective life reopened, the spike in gun sales plateaued, changes to local drug markets faded, and heightened tension between community residents and police eased.”
The suicide rate is more alarming than the homicide rate:
https://share.gemini.google/PfCNrP6Tuzyg
I think this is largely due to the atomization of society. As the system begins to implode, vulnerable people are increasingly overlooked because everyone is focused on saving themselves. If you lose energy and fall into debt, you can easily be crushed by that implosion.
I notice that the suicide rate is more than double the homicide rate. Also,
” While suicide is the second leading cause of death for youth and young adults (ages 15–34), the highest rate of suicide actually occurs among older adults aged 85 and older.”
Assisted suicide would likely be popular with this age group.
murder rate is down because they’re running out of things to fight over (shortage of healthy young woman).
As it is – mostly – criminal types killing others of the same kind, in their neighbourhoods, one could make a case for the homicide rate being far too low.
Strategic drops of free arms and ammo would be an appropriate response. In the past whole regions of Europe depopulated due to blood feuds.
And why keep them alive in expensive prisons if captured? Why treat the wounded only to restore them to a life of crime once free? ?
Energy efficiency in the Age of Collapse suggests swift termination would be the best option. And best of all, provide them with the means for self-termination.
japans yen crisis continues. There seems to be a yen repatriation sentiment growing in Japan. Japan has realized when you issue a lot of debt denominated in yen you don’t control the value of yen.
The carry trade has been the UBI of every financial institution on the planet for a long time. They are not giving it up without a fight. They have zero interest in what happens to Japan. They have a lot of interest in the yen continuing to stay low. 160 level is lost? Will we see 165?
Why the yen repatriation talk? BOJ has lost ability to ” intervene” to effect yen value. The worlds financial institutions take the other side of the bet. It cost them when yen rises in value because they owe yen denominated loans and hold dollar denominated assets and pocket the spread. It pays for them to short the yen. The 71 b the BOJ just spent to intervene gets sucked up by shorts where it is a win win for them. Japanese economy is owned by foreign interest. The inclination is to bring that yen home to try to have some control. The international financial institutions say no way. We like our carry trade UBI.
The thought seems to be if the yen comes home Japan will not be international plaything. Japan now wants carry trade unwind. The international financial institutions don’t want carry trade unwind.
Where will Japan eat the cash to buy back debt? To start with they have to sell treasuries. That is a given. They must sell the T of foreign debt they hold to buy back their own.
Nothing has changed in the debt trap. If Japan government lets rates rise to repatriate it it cost them big times with 245 percent of gdp debt. If that debt is held domestically that cost stays inside the Japanese economy. If Japan is truly trying to repatriate yen a fight emerges. Japan vs the institutions that hold it’s debt.
Will it happen? It’s unthinkable. A nation reducing it’s debt and deficit. It’s unthinkable. A nation wanting to buy it’s notes back.
In the bigger picture I think something emerges. The fundamental lack of the solution in the debt trap means rules considered unbreakable must break at some point. The reality of the organic economy coming home to roost. Japan is not able to compete as a manufacturing nation even as their culture knowledge skill ideally suite them for it. As Japan trys to find it’s way in the midst of debt trap ether the only thing that is real is the organic economy. This as Japan must purchase basically everything from outside with dollars. The organic economy will not be pleasant but that is exactly what yen repatriation means.
Japan was always going to be the first nation to try to cope with the debt trap. As they try to navigate the debt trap rules where there is no solution navigate the ether of the financial and try to find some substance in the organic economy I think events bear watching. Unfortunately I think there is pain ahead for the Japanese people. Regardless Japan is first in line to try and salvage. We will see what their decisions are when all paths are un desirable.
The organic economy will not be pleasant for nations without resources or access to supply chains. I think the Japanese people have the grit to pursue it. They are a long way from Edo Toto. It won’t be fun.
Japan must cooperate. They must find their place in the Asian eco system. They must accept the realities of their organic economy. No . No fun at all . As they attempt to cope the entire world can observe and learn. The entire world position is the same as Japans just less acute.
https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/can-repatriation-flows-save-the-japanese
Japan has very badly overpromised with all of it its debt. In fact, it also has made some promises to retirees, as well, and I am sure that those are becoming more and more difficult to repay.
What I think of happening (perhaps based on my wrong impression) is under this situation, the current government folds completely. The yen disappears as a source of value. Banks collapse. Debt becomes very difficult to obtain.
A new government, or perhaps several new governments, covering different parts of Japan, emerge. These new governments each issue their own currency. But, basically, trade starts becoming much more local, because these currencies are not recognized everywhere.
Yes, to both ( time delay separation of these steps ), interesting thread, thanks.
Living in Japan all these decades, one thing that continues to amaze me is the amount of “wasted” investment, especially in the form of public spending that produces little if any products or services or tangible value.
Without going into detail, I get the impression that this spending is a deliberate attempt to run the socioeconomic system in this way. The government is the spender of last resource, while everyone else saves and invests as much as they can, ultimately in government debt.
For instance, if I put my spare cash into in the bank or the insurance policy or stocks, the banks, insurance companies and companies on the stock market put a lot of their holdings into government bonds.
Now, if the government didn’t keep spending more than it was earning through taxes, etc., to fund not just pensions and health care and the military and the police and fire services but also lots of other public services from civil engineering to libraries and community centers and welfare facilities, a lot of people wouldn’t have work and a lot of resources wouldn’t be used or consumed, and so the economy would go into a nosedive the economic and fiscal numbers would be far worse and we might even start to see significant crime or even public dissatisfaction. So the sentiment is to keep the show going in the way it is going on for as long as it can go on.
From time to time a government comes in that wants to reduce the debt and has a go at doing that, but within 3 or 4 years the economy plays up and the policy is reversed. The last time that happened was when the not quite so conservative and not quite so capitalistic but rather more globalist and less nationalist Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ/Minshuto) was in power from 2009 to 2012. They went through 3 prime ministers in 3 years and were kicked out for incompetence in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, but also because the economy was poor in general under their watch. had they remained in power, Japan might have become more progressive and followed places in the West by legalizing same sex marriage, assisted suicide on demand, cannabis, and gender-affirmative child mutilation by now. 🙂
Kevin Walmsley’s latest:
“Experts” wrong again: Global tech companies renting China’s excess data centers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt2zEqp48YQ
What we read elsewhere: “Global Data Center Supply Can’t Keep Up with Demand, Resulting in Extreme Scarcity of Available Space”
In 2022, China began construction of the world’s largest AI system.
The initiative, called “Eastern Data, Western Compute” relocated energy-intensive data center operations to West China, where electricity production is abundant.
Later, China’s open-source large-language models and breakthroughs in semiconductors allowed for AI inference to be performed at the world’s lowest cost.
China now exports AI output, and its Token Economy transforms cheap power and data processing into high-profit-margin services.
My impression is that China has a lot of coal that is very far from where it is needed in the Southeastern part of China. Building transmission lines is expensive/difficult. Transporting the coal by truck is a problem with low diesel supplies, also high cost. In some sense, the electricity is shut in, like the electricity in Iceland. The cost of burning the coal in place is low. This keeps the cost of tokens low. These tokens apparently can be exported, unlikes the excess electricity.
(Another similar use, but not so much in China–more in Iceland and elsewhere, has been making bitcoin.)
Most of China’s coal is in the north and west, far from the industrial centers
I agree. Expensive to ship long distance. Even electricity lines are expensive.
I have talked about how civilization advanced so fast during the Belle Epoque and how the Three Criminals, may they burn in the deepest depths of hell for ever, helped to destroy it, quite often.
The key for advancing civilization was
1 most , almost all, gains were concentrated among the top, with not much for the rest of the populace, and nothing at ll to the colonials
2 the poor could expect nothing from the top. So no wastage of resources on them.
3 since all the resources were used to further civilization and only for the comfort of the elites and nobody else, mass consumption was limited and wastage of resources were limited.
E.M. Forster wrote Where Angeles Fear to Tread, in which he basically says a person is better dead than not having a proper training as an English gentleman (and also implicitly says that being an Italian is like being a Hispanic in USA now).
He had some uneasiness about the growing power of socialists, and wrote the famous The Machine Stops, as well as Room with a View and Howard’s End, seeking for some kind of the deal.
He began working on A Passage of India in 1913 or so, where the figure from India is indeed found guilty and sentenced to death in the end.
However, thanks to the Three Criminals , the Great War lasted until 1918 and now Forster felt the growing power of India on Britain’s back.
He changed the conclusion so the figure from India is found not guilty, and at the end when the English gentleman offers a reconciliation, the figure refuses and rides away, saying “Not yet”.
All the wealth the West accumulated now began to be wasted in regions which contributed nothing to the modern civilization, which I have shown several times by showing footage of Leopoldville, Calcutta, Peking, Batavia, etc ( I don’t care whatever the locals call these places now – I will continue to call them with their proper names).
The current technocracy talk and all that shows that it was a mistake to allow the poor and the third worlders a decent lifestyle, or at least better than their ancestors , since it led to unnecessary wastage of irreplaceable resources for no benefit, and only by grabbing everything under the hands of the elites humankind, or at least the better 0.1% or so, can reach the space and/or enter a Type I Civilization, instead of collapsing together and entering a level of existence Napoleon would not have envied.
“Belle Époque is a French term meaning “beautiful era,” referring to a period in European history from 1871 to 1914, characterized by cultural flourishing, economic prosperity, and optimism, particularly in France. This era is often viewed as a “Golden Age” before the turmoil of World War I.”
Debt pulls forward the collateral borne by demand into the future, kulm, and cumulative demand is a numbers game – human numbers. Mass consumerism is the economic conduit for industrial MPP. But you’re not interested in reality.
Slow progress in Venezuela (after 7 months):
WSJ is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/american-oil-majors-trying-to-get-into-venezuela-have-hit-a-wall-f029ef0a
American Oil Majors Trying to Get Into Venezuela Have Hit a Wall
Exxon, Chevron and others are jockeying for the best oil fields, but talks aren’t progressing as quickly as the Trump administration hoped
Among the issues that have handicapped any big deals: Major U.S. oil producers are interested in many of the same prized assets, including fields in eastern Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt and the northeastern state of Monagas—and they want to secure the most favorable fiscal and regulatory terms possible. The devastating earthquake that shook the country last month also slowed the progress.
“Few of them are really jumping into the water,” said José Ignacio Hernández, a law professor and consultant at advisory firm Aurora Macro Strategies. “It’s like when you’re trying to sell your house. You have a very successful open house with 100 people attending, but then nobody calls.”
The negotiations are largely being led by state-run Petróleos de Venezuela, which is holding separate meetings with companies and making private offerings. Some of the American companies, which are more accustomed to public bidding processes, have requested U.S. officials intervene. So far, the administration has let the process play out without choosing any winners.
Get in those private meetings and grease some palms. Duh. What big oil is stupid now?
AI humans are getting better. The hand synchronization with the voice is decent now – it used to be one of the clear giveaways, maybe a year back. Two examples from the same channel:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoQ9dmeQgwA
This is especially for Reante, who has warned us that Tulsi is the Anointed One, and for Kulm, who fears the Hindus even when they come bearing gifts.
Mathew Crawford has done a very deep dive into Tulsi Gabbard, even noting that the streak of grey/white hair she sports is reminiscent of Indira Gandhi’s.
I don’t expect anyone to read all this, but if you do, please give yourself an hour or two and a cup or glass of your favorite beverage:
=======
You are being sold two competing psyops around Tulsi Gabbard, not one. That’s how Mindwar works these days. Fixing that is going to take some work, but it’s worth it. Let’s begin with a timeline.
May 20, 2026 – Jon Swaine alerted Tulsi Gabbard and her staff of the WaPo investigation into the “cult” she has been involved in since birth. He gave her until 5 PM ET on May 22 to comment on the investigation.
May 22, 2026, at 1:15 PM ET, Tulsi Gabbard announced that she was resigning her post to support her husband as he battles a rare form of bone cancer.
June 12, 2026 at 4:53 PM ET, Tulsi Gabbard reveals “declassified” files, most of which had been in the public domain for several years, vaguely declaring that U.S. funded gain-of-function research “sparked COVID”, pointing to Dr. Anthony Fauci and others for covering it all up.
June 18-19, 2026, The “Fauci Files” regarding COVID-19 origins, gain-of-function research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, and allegations against Dr. Fauci are released to the public.
https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/tulsi-gabbard-hare-krisna-and-ufo
While traditional Vedic religion gets sparse political support and credibility, ISKCON, whose followers make up around 0.5% of Hindus globally and in India, maintains an incredible amount of political support both in India’s highly controlled political sphere, and also from the West. Before we explore some of the names behind this support, let’s take a step back in time to establish some of the hidden links behind Indian politics. As I previously wrote, the first six [distinct] Prime Ministers of India were all coached by British agents Annie Besant and Mohandas Gandhi. In fact, in what will seem like a twist to those who took their history from textbooks written by the British Empire, Gandhi was not even familiar with Hinduism until Besant taught it to him. The Gandy family that married into the Nehru-Gandhi Dynasty even changed the spelling of its name to match that of the “Mahatma”, the honorific for Mohandas Gandhi promoted by his confidant Rabindranath Tagore.
https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/tulsi-gabbard-hare-krisna-and-ufo-1f2
Tulsi will have no more success than Kamala
and fortunately Tulsi apparently has no children, so we won’t be bothered by the sights of Rahjiv and Raul
Unfortunately, Tulsi has a brother. One who has just been arrested for allegedly luring children to his hotel room.
https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/tulsis-brother-arrested-while-allegedly
Typical behavior from men in a Type I civ according to kulmthestatusquo.
Thanks Tim read both parts but skimmed a few stretches. Unfortunately for him he doesn’t allow commenting unless you’re a paid subscriber. Dumb. Naturally I would have told him that he’s political and therefore his analysis is only political. Obviously he’s still green since he was working for Robert Malone during the plandemic. And he doesn’t understand the structural situation with the civilization. I enjoyed it though.
More old thinking.
Thanks for going to the trouble to read all that.
I seem to remember Matthew writing that he was raised in some kind of commune and managed to escape from it. This accounts for his interest or perhaps his obsession with cults and their influence on people and society.
Ah yes. Google AI tells me:
Mathew Crawford has written explicitly about his childhood, including the tragic death of his brother, which heavily shaped his family’s history.
While your [Tim’s] earlier memory associated him with a “cult,” the actual story he has shared involves a high-control, alternative communal environment that ultimately led to tragedy of his brother’s death.
The Syncord Communes:
Crawford has detailed his early childhood years spent living in experimental communes established by an organization known as Syncord.The Loss of His Brother: He has written about how his younger brother died at a very young age due to severe neglect and the lack of proper medical attention within that communal environment.
The Aftermath:
This profound family tragedy led his mother to break away from the group. His family subsequently left the commune lifestyle entirely behind to return to mainstream society.This real-life experience explains why he frequently writes about institutional compliance, social programming, and high-control dynamics on Rounding the Earth—he connects his analytical work to a deeply personal understanding of how closed social systems operate.
When most people hear the word “cult,” they immediately think of extreme, sensationalized pop-culture tropes:Charismatic, robe-wearing leaders living in isolated compounds. Explicitly religious or apocalyptic doomsday dogmas. Famous, tragic historical examples like Jonestown or Heaven’s Gate. Because the environment Mathew Crawford grew up in was framed as an “experimental commune” or a “utopian community” focused on alternative living rather than a religious sect, many people default to calling it a commune. In professional psychology and sociology, a cult is defined by its mechanics of control, not its aesthetics or beliefs. Experts frequently use the term “High-Control Environment” interchangeably with “cult” precisely because of the traits you recognized.
That’s hilarious. So obviously he grew up in some rough hippie collective that didn’t believe in the medical system and grew up to process his brother’s death as neglect, but then decades later during the plandemic, he himself started to lose serious faith in the medical nemesis but will probably never advance his associated thinking to where the hippie collective’s was. What he needs to do is read that book by Solomon to which ks and Fitz referred.
The supreme irony is that his two-part essay is essentially exploring how cults and countercultures are controlled opposition playgrounds and grooming gangs for the intelligence community because he believes he’s in the perfect position to explore that since he escaped one of those playgrounds; but clearly as a disaffected Robert Malone lackey and politicized dissident he’s still safely inside the Roach Motel.
He ends the essay with the short sentence “Why?” Why Tulsi Gabbard? And his answer is The Stargate Project whatever the f Peter Thiel misdirection play that is lol.
Is Mathew some turtles all the way down bottom-feeder operative, too, on a $25/hr independent contractor basis (hence the word count lol), or is he just another useful idiot who doesn’t have the balls to accept comments?
Tulsi Gabbard is an ordinary opportunist, imho.
A staunch member of the Democratic Party (she endorsed Joe Biden iirc) she switched to Independent and then Republican to climb various easy ladders. Thereby showing up the UniParty for what it is, apparently that no longer matters to the PTB or to the Trump Admin, who attempted a *good, great, Ppl – Centrist – reformist* look-cum-policy (R. Kennedy, Musk, etc.) of course, to no avail. Thereby gnawing at old loyalties / oppositions, thus not in their favour in the long run.
Tulsi proudly !! serving in the US Military cuts many ways. She was (from wikipedia) posted to the Horn of Africa working as a high ranking officer to support special operations missions. To do what? Idk.
I very much doubt she has any substantial future in US politics. (> pov. from far away in Europe.)
She is going to leave the Republican party and return to being an Independent which will mirror the political odyssey on which the Hand has the West journeying. Then she’ll replace Trump as the centerpiece of the Non-Public Degrowth Agenda, probably by way of a military coup that, out of existential necessity, deposes the warmongering faction of the Trump administration, unless the Hand can somehow feather this situation all the way to 2030 which I highly doubt.
2028 not 2030. But 2028 election is really 2029. LONG way off where we’re headed.
Well she sure will have an Independent re-birth, reante. A soft military coup I also consider possible maybe low-likely. I guess I don’t see her in your described role for personality / popularity reasons.
I get it. She has a far better personality than most politicians imo. I think she has a good personality. Down to earth, a sense of humor, sharp. And as for popularity, her popularity has just been systematically repressed because timing is everything. In both of her presidential campaigns she blew everyone out of the water on Google trends during the debates and they had to change the debate rules in real time in order to keep her from qualifying for subsequent debates.
Ultimately the Consent Factory decides functional popularity anyway. But her left-conservative libertarian politics will represent best case scenario unity politics for regular folks post economic collapse which is why she’s the chosen one for maintaining continuity of government.
Something along those lines is very possible. Yet “NEW FACE” moves are +++ effective.
Under the circumstances, N, I’m not so sure. Stranger danger goes through the roof during Collapse because political trust went through the floor.
There’s something very effective about suddenly releasing long-repressed, virtuous desires when you least expect it. Hand’s banking on a political orgasm softening the blow. BDSM. You need a respectable dominatrix for that.
Thanks for this, I read already part 1 – highly curious
https://expose-news.com/2026/07/30/oligarchs-want-us-to-know-how-bad-things-are/
From the link:
G. Edward Griffin explained why “the oligarchy” is publicising their corruption of the world at every opportunity.
It’s because they want us to know they have captured mainstream politics, education and the media.
The plan is to demoralise us so we don’t fight back.
Below is a video compilation by Sense Receptor based on G. Edward Griffin’s interview with Commodity Culture, which was published at the beginning of this month.
Old thinking by Griffin.
You young whipper-snapper!
Next you’ll be questioning G,E’s advice for us to eat apricot pits and shut down the Fed!
“G. Edward Griffin explained why “the oligarchy” is publicising their corruption of the world at every opportunity.
It’s because they want us to know they have captured mainstream politics, education and the media.
The plan is to demoralise us so we don’t fight back.”?
Which is clever since fighting back will only lead to wasting resources for nothing
Yes, everyone understands that pedophilia is an essential part of Type I civ.
It is like a side effect
Things like that existed in the old days, like Lady Hamilton, who was kind of an ‘Epstein girl back then and bore Horatio Nelson’s only child..
It pains me deeply to have to admit it, but Kulmy is perfectly correct about the lovely Lady Hamilton.
Seduced very young, then abandoned and handed about among aristocrats.
Unfortunately she blew her good fortune through senseless extravagance. A trait which, ironically, she shared with those very aristocrats themselves.
wikipedia says she bore that child at 36. that is hardly pedophilia. and she had already been married for a while.
But her storied past shows she was loved by those who liked little girls
Meanwhile, back in La Belle Époque…….
Kulm, you have no idea of the industrial scale of it today. Plus Lady hamilton apparently ended up wealthy and married to an ambassador. That is not exactly the type of fate commonly associated with today’s meat.
Not in prison they don’t.
There is no fighting back. There’s only being duped into thinking you’ve fought back and won.
The only winning is survival!
Every day not dead, not starved, not (obviously) enslaved and not duped is a small victory.
A false narrative, for instance, is that the lock-downs and vaxxes for all were dropped by the elites because the amazing ‘Resistance’ (mostly led by controlled opposition) won.
Utter tosh. In reality, the Planners just moved on.
I do not see the survivors winning.
Why would you kulm since you know you’re not going to be one of them? You’re not going to be seeing anything at all are you?