|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
History back to 1820 gives hints regarding what may follow
With the recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, many expect oil prices to spike and stay high. Instead, they have barely budged. The latest spike in prices is a mini spike. If these oil prices were adjusted for inflation, the spikes in the past would appear even higher.
This is not a new problem. Looking at energy data going back to 1820, low demand (affordability) has repeatedly produced financial crashes, wars, and collapses. We appear to be entering another such period.
In this post, I examine differences in how the economy behaves, comparing two different types of periods: those with low energy affordability (“low demand”) and those with high energy affordably (“high demand”). I also offer my view on what this analysis suggests may be ahead for the world economy.
[1] How high demand differs from low demand
High demand looks like a situation in which, each year, an increasing number of people can afford cars and the fuel that they require. With high demand, the number of new cars sold each year tends to rise. Young people are eager to buy homes because they find homes affordable. They find their incomes relatively higher than their parents’ were at their age. Countries around the world find it easy to industrialize. This allows their citizens to have better lifestyles. As we will see later in this post, the periods of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s were periods of high growth in demand for oil products.
What we have now is the opposite: too many young people who cannot find jobs that pay well, even with advanced degrees. They cannot afford to go on a vacation or buy a new car. Record numbers live with their parents after they finish their schooling. They spend their spare time playing video games, rather than socializing with their friends.
The number of cars sold worldwide hit a peak in 2017, indicating indirectly that people are getting poorer. If people are not buying as many cars, demand for oil tends to fall, especially if more of the cars that are sold are electric.
Building new homes also takes oil. According to the US Census Bureau, the number of US new homes sold in the US hit a record of 1,283,000 in 2005. In 2025, the number of US new homes sold amounted to only 678,000, or about 53% of the peak amount. The huge drop in new home construction is a sign that people, quite often young people, are not as well off financially as they were years ago. They cannot afford to buy a new (or even a used) home anymore.
One study based on income tax data revealed that between 1948 and 1970, US incomes tended to rise faster than inflation. Between 1968 and 1983, the incomes of both the top 10% and the lower 90% rose as fast as inflation. However, between 1983 and 2012, the top 10% received far greater increases than the bottom 90% (Figure 2).
If workers in the bottom 90% of the distribution are not doing well, it is difficult to keep prices of commodities as high as those producing the commodities would prefer. Purchases of commodities, including food, and fuel for vehicles, do not rise proportionately with huge incomes. Elon Musk and other very high-income individuals do not spend all day eating or driving their vehicles. The bottom 90% must prosper for demand (affordability) of oil and other commodities to stay high.
[2] What experience with high and low growth in energy supplies since 1820 teaches us.
Several years ago, I prepared an analysis of how the world economy behaved over the long term, over the period from 1820 to 2017. I have recently updated this study. I found that the economy behaved quite well in times of high energy consumption growth. In times of low energy consumption growth, there seemed to be many adverse events, such as financial crashes, wars, and government collapses.
I am afraid that with today’s oil and debt problems, we are headed into a pattern of low energy consumption growth, or even energy consumption contraction. If this is the case, we should expect outcomes at least as undesirable those experienced during past periods of low energy consumption growth in the past.
(a) Methodology
I first prepared a new data set by combining two data sets, the earlier of which was available only every 10 years, with more recent data available more frequently. The energy quantities reported were rising rapidly. To analyze how fast they were rising, I first computed the average annual increase percentage for each 10-year period, as shown on Figure 3.
For example, the period from 1961 to 1970 (shown as the 1970 bar) had a very high annual rate of growth rate for energy consumption. This was the period when many of the interstate highways in the US were opened and many pipelines were added.
On Figure 4, I divided the bars shown on Figure 3 into two parts.
On Figure 5, the blue portions of the bars represent the average annual increase in population over the 10-year period. The red portion of the bar is computed by subtraction from the total. It is the amount that seems to be left over for a rising standard of living. Having a tall red portion of the bar would be very good; having little or no red bar left would represent a problem. Note that in two periods (the one ended 1860 and the one ended 2000), the amount left over for an increase in living standards was negative.
(b) Good things happened in years with very high growth in “Living Standards”
Figure 5 shows the information on Figure 4 as an area chart.
While I don’t show oil prices on Figure 5, those who are familiar with oil prices will remember that high oil prices were a feature of the 1973 to 1981 period. Also, as China began its growth period, another spike in oil prices took place. High growth in energy supplies and high oil prices seem to go together. High demand from a growing economy tends to hold prices up.
The label “China” refers to the rapid growth that took place in the decade after China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This was mostly powered by China’s huge growth in coal supply between 2002 and 2011 (Figure 6).
China and the world experienced another spurt of increased coal production starting in 2022, when coal prices temporarily spiked to a high level, perhaps indirectly related to the conflict in Ukraine. But coal prices have gradually come back down, resulting in flat world growth in coal production since 2023, and a plateau in China’s coal production growth.
(c) Troubled Periods took place when the growth in “Living Standards” was low or negative
Figure 7 labels three periods with very severe dips in “Living Standards.”
The First Troubled Period started with the Panic of 1857, which some consider to be a cause of the US Civil War. According to this view, the collapse was related to an over-expansion of the US economy, followed by the collapse of the debt bubble that had allowed this expansion to occur. Financial problems affected both the North and the South.
As I see the situation, one part of this financial problem was the declining profitability of slave labor. In the US South, the labor of slaves was the main source of energy used to operate plantations. An underlying issue was that the soil had gradually become depleted because of many years of growing of cotton and tobacco. These slaves had been purchased with debt; this debt could not be repaid with interest unless the income of the plantations was sufficiently high. However, poor harvests were not offset by sufficiently higher prices, which led to financial problems for plantation owners.
There may also have been an issue that the population, in general, was becoming poorer, essentially because of overpopulation. I say this because studies show that the height of army recruits had fallen, suggesting poorer nutrition. Sanitation had recently been improved, allowing a larger share of babies to survive to maturity. At the same time, immigration into the US continued. With overpopulation, it was difficult to keep incomes up. If farms were divided among many sons, farm sizes would tend to become smaller, leading to lower farm incomes. There would also be greater competition for factory jobs, tending to hold wages down.
Of course, when the Confederacy lost the war, the Confederate Dollar became worthless. For some, this added another financial crisis.
The Second Troubled Period was 1920 to 1940. This is a notoriously bad period, with the Great Depression and World War II included. Arguably, World War I should also be included. Commodity prices of all kinds fell very low. Tariffs were added in the 1920s. The problems seem to have arisen at the time Peak Coal hit–prices could not rise high enough to cover the cost of extracting coal from narrower and deeper seams. In my view, World War I began at the time of Peak Coal in the UK, and World War II took place at the time of Peak Hard Coal in Germany.
With depletion, the cost of extracting coal kept rising, but the sales price of coal would not rise to compensate for the higher extraction costs. Instead, wages of miners were increasingly squeezed. Strikes and lockouts became common. Taking a job as a soldier seemed like a reasonable alternative.
There were many events from this period that most people would like to forget, including the currency hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic between 1921 and 1923 and the Holocaust from 1933 and 1945. Country lines were redrawn. Some countries disappeared, and new ones were added. Those holding currencies of countries that disappeared were likely left without funds.
The Third Troubled Period was 1990 to 2000.
A major event of the Third Troubled Period was the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, leaving the 15 republics as independent states. The collapse also indirectly affected Cuba, North Korea, and some countries in Eastern Europe that were not part of the 15 independent states. With this change, the demand for fuel of all kinds fell in the countries affected. Factories were closed in many areas, including Ukraine, which was part of the Soviet Union.
The pullback in demand from the collapse of the Soviet Union helped hold oil prices down in the 1991 to 2001 period. Oil prices had previously been brought down by the spike in interest rates in the 1980-1981 period. In my opinion, these low oil prices played a major part in the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, as an oil exporter, needed higher oil prices to invest in developing new fields. In my opinion, the impact of the collapse of the government of the Soviet Union kept world demand (and oil prices) low during the 1991 to 2000 period.
The collapse of the Japanese real estate bubble also took place in this period, as did the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. Low growth in the world economy, indirectly related to the collapse of the Soviet Union, may have played a role in these financial events.
[3] The world’s self-organizing and self-healing economy
From a physics perspective, all economies are dissipative structures. Other examples of dissipative structures include ecosystems in general, all plants and animals, including humans, and hurricanes. One characteristic of dissipative structures is that, at some point in their lives, they tend to grow. Another is that if there is an injury, within a range, the systems tend to be self-healing. For example, a cut on a person’s arm will tend to heal; a hurricane going over land will temporarily lose much of its force, but it may increase in force again if it returns over warm water.
Another characteristic of dissipative structures is that they are dependent on having a sufficient energy supply of the right kinds to continue their existence. For humans, the energy supply is food; for an economy, it is a combination of many kinds of energy needed to match the built infrastructure of the economy.
All dissipative structures have finite lifetimes. Ecosystems often come to an end through fires. Humans generally do not live more than 80 or 100 years. Economies also tend to come to an end, either by losing a war or by the collapse of a central government, related to debt problems. The collapse of the Soviet Union involved a debt problem, among other issues. Figure 9 shows the huge drop in demand for energy of all types as its central government collapsed.
There is more stability of dissipative structures than a person might expect. Economists talk about an Invisible Hand being involved. Researchers examining dissipative structures talk about them being “self-organizing.” For example, if a fire or a change in climate causes a forest to collapse, it does not take many years for the forest to refill with suitable plants and animals for the somewhat changed situation. If a business or government fails, new, somewhat different businesses or governments are likely to take their place.
I would argue that if the Universe is constantly expanding (so it is an “open system,” rather than a “closed system”), what appear to be self-organizing systems may, in fact, be God-organized systems. In other words, instead of creation being a one-time event in the distant past, some type of literal higher power may be involved in a way that makes creation more or less an ongoing event. A person might wonder with the strange confluence of recent events, including the strange weather patterns associated with El Nino, whether today’s humans are being warned that a major change in economies will take place soon.
[4] What kinds of things may happen in the near future?
(a) Current disturbances in the Middle East and elsewhere are raising long-distance shipping costs for both food and oil. (See this video.) Normally, the price of food and oil must be high enough to satisfy producers and at the same time be low enough to satisfy customers. But now a new layer of costs has been added: the cost of shipping longer routes.
I would argue that because of the problem with low demand (affordability) by consumers, shipping costs must be paid almost entirely through a reduced net oil price available to oil producers and reduced net food prices available to farmers. The amount that consumers can afford doesn’t increase because of higher transportation costs.
(b) Furthermore, the use of extra oil for transportation of oil and food will tend to push the overall economy toward contraction because there will be less oil available for other uses, such as to power agricultural machinery and jet airplanes. If the overall economy begins to contract, we can expect dips in oil prices similar to those in 2008 and 2020 (Figure 1). But if recession persists, low oil prices will not reverse themselves as quickly as they did earlier.
(c) I expect home and farm prices will tend to fall around the world. This is related to the low level of demand (affordability problem) in the US and elsewhere. Figure 11, showing median US asking prices for homes, suggests that home prices have been barely holding their own for quite a while. A decrease would not be surprising with all the pressure the economy is now encountering.
Farm prices are likely to be under pressure as well, because of the difficulty farmers are having obtaining adequate income from their farms. If farm and home prices fall, there is a substantial chance that the debt bubble holding up these prices will collapse.
(d) There are many other debt bubbles that seem to be waiting to collapse. Some of the debt relating to AI seems to be in a bubble. There is considerable commercial real estate whose value seems to be being held up by “extend and pretend” loans. Collapsing debt bubbles tend to lead to collapsing banks. They also tend to lead to banks less willing to make new loans. Layoffs seem likely. All these things point to a major recession ahead, with less buying power for the population.
(f) Collapses of some top levels of government, similar to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, may be ahead. Such collapses can greatly reduce world energy consumption, including oil, with relatively little violence.
[5] How the nature of the economy may help over the long term
As noted previously, economies seem to have self-healing properties. Troubled periods can last for many years, but there seems to be a substantial chance that a way out will eventually be found.
If a government fails because of excessive debt, a new government (or governments) is likely to take its place. The new government will likely have fewer employees and offer fewer services to citizens. Pensions will likely need to be reduced or eliminated completely.
Even if governments fail, or national boundaries are redrawn, I expect that some businesses will continue operations. Such a situation will take place even if a new currency needs to be created to make this happen. Even in a troubled period, new businesses will start operations. Some of these businesses will make use of recycled materials available from failing businesses.
According to the Maximum Power Principle, if there are resources available that can easily be used, somehow, some organization will develop a way to use them. Over the long term, the economy will likely re-organize itself in a way that is more complex and more sparing in energy use. If energy use is efficient enough, it seems likely that a higher price for that energy supply could be made affordable to consumers. But, such a transition may take many years, if it is possible at all.
Culture in developed countries in a nutshell.
https://www.youtube.com/@FXBGNeighbors/videos
This isn’t just a specific market or audience, this is the entire culture. Other stuff not covered on this page are niche. If someone who comes from the developing world wonders what the culture is like in the developed world, I will point to this page.
This is how the fool the public that all is normal . Nobody counts barrels per week .
” Crude oil exports via Hormuz at 33.7 million barrels this week, data shows ”
This actually means only 4.5 mbpd was going thru instead of 18 mbpd .
” https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hormuz-commodity-ship-transits-fall-single-digits-shiptracking-data-shows-2026-09-25/
Explosion des prix du Diesel : Qui aurait pu le prédire?
https://2000watts.org/index.php/energies-fossiles/petrole/prix-petrole/1491-explosion-des-prix-du-diesel-qui-aurait-pu-le-predire.html
Soaring diesel prices: Who could have predicted it?
Diesel shortages are driving prices up. Today, the average price of diesel at the pump in the European Union is €2.23 per liter, a new all-time high. To give you an idea, the most expensive diesel is in Denmark, at €2.73 per liter. In the USA, diesel is reaching a peak of $1.73 per liter ($6.53 per gallon). The trend is global.
Who could have predicted it? Everyone! Since 2008, so many alarms have sounded and warning lights have been flashing non-stop. In the hydrocarbon sector, diesel is the canary in the coal mine. From the Yellow Vest movement to today, history is moving in the same direction.
Back to the Future
Diesel is traditionally the fuel of choice for transportation, particularly for cargo ships and trucks. Virtually everything in your home was transported using diesel.
The post goes then through the rising use of diesel for many purposes since 2020, and the diesel shortages in 2016 through 2019, including the Yellow Vest Movement. Then the Pandemic of 2020-2021, followed by wars and more wars cut back diesel use further.
The post ends with a section, “Stop consuming diesel or methane gas.” If you drive a diesel car, replace it with something else. If you heat your home with diesel or methane gas, replace the system with something else when its natural life is ended.
I don’t see diesel and methane (natural gas) as equivalent, at least in the United States. Europe suffers from a shortage of both diesel and natural gas. France has much of its electricity from nuclear, so I expect in this case he is suggesting moving to nuclear from electricity, rather than natural gas.
In this regard, I have always thought, in fact, that the so-called Volkswagen scandal in the US arose because the US decided to give the Germans a slap in the face for having dared to introduce some excellent cars that, however, ran on diesel – a fuel they have to use sparingly and which was, in any case, becoming increasingly scarce.
Because even an /d/ot could have seen that it was a manufactured scandal.
The hilarious culmination of all this is that Germans and French, full of diesel cars, accepted to break with Russia, their first source of that fuel, to defend Ukraine which depended from Russia for the same thing.
And they were planning to switch to electric cars, making electric energy with gas coming from Russia, the same Country like above 😀
Actually I have always thought also that comic movies are becoming very few lately, because reality is by far more comic than a whatever comic movie.
Interesting article, it is funny how the author doesn’t get that diesel is a scarce fuel because Oil is not an equal chemical source, but there are different types of Oils (from chemical point of view) and not all Oils give diesel.
Among these Oils, US Tight Oil which gives mainly gasoline (or petrol, saying in the UK’s way, I think).
That is the key to understand better.
We touch this argument earlier, but it is an argument that Gail has always talked about, clarifying the misunderstanding in which many people fall in.
Reddit user in Indianapolis had his outside air conditioner stolen for scrap $
https://www.reddit.com/r/indianapolis/comments/1woozjo/well_someone_stole_my_ac_unit/
Humans have created a dead, artificial environment that provides them with neither food nor energy. It is a permanent energy sink that requires continuous energy inputs to keep nature from reclaiming it.
Kevin Walmsley looks at Russian natural gas exports from the Chinese perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MufwaCOHhow
Iran War fallout: Russia and China quietly take over natural gas markets in Asia, with Qatar gone
Sorry, mostly propaganda hogwash. 35 mn. tons crude per year are 0,7 mmbd (mn. barrels per day; M times M equals 1 million in my book), while world consumption is about 100 million barrels a day (all liquids). Re natgas China took 38 bn m3 via PoS1 and intends to increase delivery from PoS 1 to 44 bn. m3. North Stream 1 alone delivered 59 bn m3 natgas to Europe in 2021. And the PoS 2 is a nice project with a nice mou, becoming reality in 5 years at best. I doubt that though. Hearing about this project since 2012 or so.
There is no russian natgas available to compensate Katar losses for Asia (not to speak of chinese natgas). China currently gets about one fourth from Russia of what the EU used to consume (155 bn cubic meters) – from yakutsk, which seems to have some CH4 (but by far not as much as yamal). I guess, the PRC needs the natgas for its own industry. And crude oil? 35 bn. tons annually amounts to 717.200 Barrel per day, as compared to worldwide consumption of 106 million barrels daily (“all liquids”).
I suppose this depends a whole lot on whether the Blue Energy folks know what they are doing with respect to extraction of the type needed in Venezuela. Also, if there are hidden subsidies.
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/pentagon-backed-oil-company-is-set-to-vie-for-chevrons-crown-in-venezuela-f8e4300a
Pentagon-Backed Oil Company Is Set to Vie for Chevron’s Crown in Venezuela
The rise of a U.S.-backed oil company in Venezuela has frustrated executives at Chevron, which has long been the dominant producer there.
North American Blue Energy Partners, the Trump administration’s new partner in Venezuela, said it has lined up 60 drilling rigs, 30 steam boilers that generate hot steam to move heavy oil, and 70 pieces of heavy equipment. Two drilling rigs are set to depart Houston on Monday for a six-day voyage to Venezuela on a cargo vessel called the BBC Washington.
NABEP is seizing the opportunity to develop 17 oil fields said to contain 65 billion barrels of oil, or one-fifth of the country’s vast reserves, which it secured last month through a deal with the U.S. It is expected to reap substantial production gains in its more developed fields in a relatively short amount of time. The Pentagon will take a 35% passive stake in the company and has preferential rights to purchase 20% of its production at cost.
“NABEP is increasing oil production for the Western Hemisphere, as promised,” said a spokesman for the company, which is led by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt. “We are only in a race against ourselves.”
Meanwhile, since the deal was announced last month, executives at Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips have privately expressed frustration to others in the industry about the prospect of competing against a rival with ties to the U.S. government.
Help is on the way .
German lawmakers backed a temporary fuel-tax cut worth €2.5 billion ($2.8 billion) starting next week as Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition seeks to ease the burden of surging prices on consumers.
The measure, a three-month reduction of as much as 17 euro cents ($0.19) a liter for gasoline and diesel, passed both houses of Germany’s parliament on Friday so it can take effect Oct. 1.
Merz’s conservative Christian Democrats suffered three bruising defeats in state elections this month, with voters taking aim at the political establishment and the far-right Alternative for Germany gaining support .
‘Eni sets price cap of €2.19 for diesel, €1.99 for petrol’ (Italy)
What do you think of this move?
I wonder if that could mean some kind of rationing and how competitors will behave.
Thanks
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/eni-sets-price-cap-of-219-for-diesel-199-for-petrol/ar-AA2cYeiz
It sounds like a way to have inadequate supply.
The Xi Trump meeting was a “nothing burger ” . Xi promised to send two pandas . Trump is delighted . 🤣
They are at least talking to each other, without physical fights. I consider that a plus.
War in the Middle East seems to have settled down, a bit, temporarily.
I’ll second that and another nothing burger is Iran’s proposal for “peace” before the mid term elections reported by the NYT
Iran Proposes 7-Day Plan to End War
Under the offer, the Strait of Hormuz would reopen and nuclear talks would be revived.
Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, told reporters at a press briefing at the United Nations General Assembly that the proposal closely mirrored the commitments laid out in a so-called memorandum of understanding that was struck between the United States and Iran in June but quickly unraveled.
He said Iran was ready to begin putting the plan into effect as soon as Washington agreed to it.
“We have introduced a plan to the United States through the intermediators that if certain conditions are met, the Strait of Hormuz would be open on the end of the seventh day and talks would restart,” Mr. Araghchi said.
He said “it would be better,” if a deal was reached before the U.S. midterm elections.
Sure thing, the cheques in the mail on all your frozen assets too…
A nothing burger
Message to Iran…your frozen assets are gone, baby gone…
“On September 8, the US Treasury proscribed 36 aviation-related entities, including 27 Iranian airlines and a network of foreign ticketing agents, ground-service providers, and aircraft-procurement companies. . . .
The US is casting the move as part of Operation Economic Outcast. However, it is better understood within the framework of Washington’s wider, multi-theatre war to preserve US financial supremacy—and as such Beijing is the real strategic target.”?
https://ceinewsletter.substack.com/p/the-impossible-choice
The name of this article is “How Iranian Airline Sanctions Are Aimed at Beijing.”
I think that the Advanced Nations are increasingly fighting a war against what I call “Other than Advanced Nations”–who gets the diesel and jet fuel, and everything else that is needed.
Sanctions against Iran’s airlines are part of this war.
How did Peszkian and Aragachi return to Tehran ? The Chinese purchased the fuel and the gifted it to Iran Air . 🤣Sanctions don’t work .
Surprize!
An article by Larry Johnson. (Sanctions is one of the wars):
https://sonar21.com/three-wars-one-bill-how-hormuz-ukraine-and-sanctions-are-squeezing-the-express-giants-and-pushing-up-global-prices/
Three Wars, One Bill: How Hormuz, Ukraine and Sanctions Are Squeezing the Express Giants and Pushing Up Global Prices
This article is the result of my conversation earlier today during my flight from Istanbul to London. I was sitting next to a FEDEX pilot who was on his way to Paris via London. I asked him about aviation fuel prices and the effect on FEDEX and I got more than I bargained for. The world’s express carriers like to present themselves as barometers of the global economy. In 2026 they are also measuring something else: what it costs to run a global air network when two of the three main east-west air corridors are effectively closed. The answer so far is that FedEx and UPS are surviving the shock largely by passing it on to their customers. That cost doesn’t disappear. It moves down the supply chain and into the inflation numbers central banks are now fighting. . .
Surcharges have protected FedEx and UPS far better than airlines or asset-light truckers. FedEx’s chief customer officer said in March that the fuel surcharge was “doing its job” and would keep the company profitable. . .
On the evidence so far, shippers are bearing most of the cost. UPS’s CFO described the net profit impact of surcharges as “modest,” and FedEx said they were not a material driver of adjusted operating income. . .
For both the carriers and the inflation outlook, the deciding factor is how long the Hormuz disruption lasts. If jet fuel stays near $190 a barrel through peak season, the question stops being whether FedEx and UPS can pass costs on. It becomes whether their customers, and the consumers behind them, can keep absorbing them. The next markers are September CPI on October 14, and FedEx’s commentary on surcharge recovery and volumes in its fiscal Q1 2027 report.
Cargo freight is generally for high value cargo that can absorb increases with less difficulty than ships, truck or rail freights.
Anyway this seems to be the latest report.
“WorldACD: Global air freight volumes fell 1% in early September.”
It is in line with what I would expect, clients absorb prices, but volumes are decreasing and will probably decrease even more in the next weeks, because I don’t expect that jet fuel will be delivered by aliens to compensate lack of supply we currently have on this earth.
https://www.transportcorridors.com/worldacd-global-air-freight-down-1-early-sept/
Right!
B, the Honest Sorcerer, has a new post up:
https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/what-futures-are-possible-part-ii
This post looks at the future using three different lenses:
–Finance: dollar hegemony and financial stability versus alternative currency/trade regimes and survival in a post-neoliberal world where investments and financial instruments have lost 90% of their value.
–Social Coherence: from failed states to authoritarian high tech city states. Institutional failure rate on one axis, people’s and communities’ ability to adapt by becoming more self-sufficient on the other.
–Ecological Overshoot: the speed and extent of ecological decline due to overshoot and ways of potential human adaptation.
B concludes:
Phew… That was a long-winded way of saying: we are F’d. Or are we? See, while most likely 2025 was the peak of human economic activity—remember: energy is everything—a total apocalypse is far from being guaranteed. An electrified technutopia is also mathematically impossible—except for a handful high tech city states or regions, most likely in East Asia. The rest of the world will have to go through a massive economic decline: abrupt at first, erasing 5-10% of real economic output in the near future, then grinding on slowly as ongoing wars (and new ones) continue to drain and destroy an already shrinking, depleting resource base. Rinse and repeat for a several decades, and you arrive at a radically different world, where large states cease to function (fail) and where local communities / warlords / fill-in-the-blank take their place. This is already a lived reality in many countries across West Asia and Africa (Syria, Libya, Sudan, Iraq, Lebanon come to mind) and soon will become a reality in a growing number of countries across Europe and elsewhere. Don’t believe me? Wait 5-10 years and see for yourself.
In the meantime the global economy, and human communities in it, will continue to adapt. Increasingly expensive transport will mean more localized economies. Less fuel availability will result in reduced economic activity. A currency regime change and the dollar losing it’s reserve currency status will mean less exuberance, less credit, less stock market bubbles—but also perhaps more sane financing, less wars (‘no money, no war, honey’) and new methods to settle payments. Change, not apocalypse—fingers crossed. This doesn’t mean that all will be fine: the decades ahead will be rough for sure. War, deindustrialization, and an overall economic decline will be the order of the day, but starting a local-for-local business, organizing communities around ecologically sound principles, reverting to much simpler (and locally more democratic) institutions will always be a good idea—and a goal worth fighting for.
” Change, not apocalypse—fingers crossed .” Don’t agree . He seems to have dismissed complexity in the system . See the post on shortage of Bitumen in Germany or shortage of Sulfuric acid , Urea and Helium . Even those who have been studying these matters for long were not, aware of these side effects from the disruption in the SoH . Collapse or apocalypse cannot be avoided . The two questions are time and speed and of course who goes down the toilet first .
I know that the Democrats near me are very anti-Trump. I suppose this is possible. They don’t seem to have a strong candidate to put up, as a substitute, however.
https://jonathanturley.org/2026/09/24/bring-on-the-generals-roughly-60-percent-of-polled-democrats-would-support-a-military-coup/
It appears that nothing says “saving Democracy” like a good old-fashioned military coup. A new survey from the Center for Strategic Politics found that 59 percent of Democrats would favor a military coup to remove President Donald Trump from office. All it took was four years out of power for these Democratic voters to embrace a coup d’état to negate the results of the last election. What is particularly chilling is that many of these voters still portray themselves as defending democracy by calling for a military takeover. It is akin to supporting drive-by shootings to combat gun violence. That is not the only shocker in this survey.
According to the Center, roughly six in 10 (59%) Democrats polled said they would feel “very positive” or “somewhat positive” if the US military removed Trump and seized control of the American government.
The vast majority, of course, would be happy if Trump were impeached and removed from office (87%) or ousted by his cabinet via the 25th Amendment (84%).
https://i0.wp.com/media.townhall.com/cdn/hodl/ha/images/2026/265/52bb677e-3e85-428f-b9ae-d54cde393589-650×0.webp?w=845&ssl=1
The back and forth about ending or escalating the Iran war goes on:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-proposes-7-day-roadmap-end-war-which-mimics-june-mou
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi has newly proposed to the US side a seven-day roadmap aimed at ending the war, while the top Iranian delegation is still in New York City engaged in deep diplomacy on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. . .
Pezeshkian further said it was up to the United States to choose when the war would end. “It’s America that must choose whether it wants to end this or not,” Pezeshkian said in response to a question by Fox’s Bret Baier.
Tehran has meanwhile said it is ready to escalate, and even spread the war beyond the Persian Gulf region, into the Indian Ocean for example (where the UK-US have the Diego Garcia base).
The WSJ is saying:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/why-the-gulf-wants-trump-to-hold-the-line-on-iran-b283a5e1
Why the Gulf Wants Trump to Hold the Line on Iran
New push for talks faces hurdles as U.S. allies seek to keep the pressure on Tehran
Gulf countries generally agree that Trump shouldn’t escalate militarily against Iran. But oil kingpin Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are lobbying the Trump administration to keep up the economic pressure on Iran and not agree to concessions that would ease sanctions or the U.S. Navy blockade, the people said.
Saudi Arabia, in particular, is facing new obstacles in getting its oil to market after Iran’s Houthi militia allies in Yemen began squeezing the kingdom’s shipments through the Red Sea. . .
U.A.E. officials who previously said their Gulf state was eager to end the conflict diplomatically have also poured water on expectations for talks with Iran and said the flare-ups in regional violence and attacks on ships show Tehran is in no rush to return to diplomacy.
“CANADA’S LEADERS WOULD RATHER PROTECT ORGANIZED CRIME & ALLOW THEIR CITIZENS TO BE TARIFFED THAN TO DEAL WITH HUMAN TRAFFICKING & FENTANYL PRODUCTION”?
https://forbiddennews.substack.com/p/the-post-national-state
My feeling is that things are not going well in Canada. The price margin for taxes on crude from the Oil Sands is not high enough. There is not enough other profitable industry. There are long distances to deal with, and the extra costs associated with a long winter and short summer. Remember that Canada was a leader in forcing Covid vaccines.
Not only Covid injections, Gail, but official Death by Doctor, ie MAID euthanasia, which seems to expand in scope relentlessly.
One of my nicest new neighbours here fled Canada to get away from all of that, although it might be a case of ‘out of the frying pan into the fire’.
If Canada is merely to function as a resource-supplier of some kind, the population is both far too large, and far too elderly.
Not only fat will be trimmed, but old bones too…..
would you rather they die eaten by cannibals?
we’re not in Kansas anymore toto.
As long as they die before being eaten by the cannibals, I don’t have any particular objection.
But more importantly, you are presenting what is known as a false dilemma—the Either-Or Fallacy—often framed as a “lesser of two evils” argument.
The implication of your argument is that there are only two options available—the current regime including jabbing people to make them sick and “putting them to sleep” once they are too sick to take care of themselves, or dying being eaten by cannibals.
In fact, there are lots of other possibilities, many of which may be more pleasant and beneficial than either of the above.
Canada has a nominal GDP per capita of approximately $55,728 USD, which is over 7 times higher than Botswana’s nominal GDP per capita of about $7,678 USD.
Adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity, Canada’s figure is roughly three times higher at $64,610, compared to Botswana’s $20,538.
And yet the people of Botswana are happy, always singing, always dancing, alway getting deported from South Africa! And with hardly any cannibalism since the last missionaries were eaten.
If we define happiness as security, stability, and lack of systemic worry, Canadians are generally better off than Botswanans. But if you define happiness as spontaneous joy, laughter, and daily emotional warmth, it is entirely plausible that on the average an individual in Botswana bolstered by strong community bonds, cultural resilience, and close family networks could experience a more joyful day-to-day life than a stressed, isolated individual in Canada.
“They used drugs for years, thinking it was no big deal, until things got out of hand. The number of patients—drug addicts—rose to a record high last year
Last year, nearly 3,400 people received treatment for drug addiction.
They are students, self-employed individuals, and lawyers. For years, they used methamphetamine, cocaine, or marijuana. They thought they could do so without major problems—until things got out of hand. Last year, a record number of patients with drug addictions received treatment in Slovakia. This is according to data from the Center for the Treatment of Drug Addiction (CPLDZ) in Bratislava.
According to Ľubomír Okruhlica, a leading expert in addiction medicine, the increase in the number of patients—drug addicts—is due to an influx of middle-aged individuals seeking treatment.
Pervitin continues to dominate among Slovak drug users. Cocaine is also popular. Marijuana use is high, and heroin use still accounts for a significant share.”
https://www.sme.sk/domov/c/roky-brali-drogy-mysleli-ze-bez-problemov-az-sa-im-to-vymklo-z-ruk-pocet-pacientov-narkomanov-vlani-rekordne-stupol
When people are depressed or lonely, drugs often seem like an option. This is especially the case when a person is without a close family structure to fall back on. Children of divorce or of unwed mothers seem to have more difficulties than others.