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The nature of the shortage of diesel and jet fuel is more complex than most people realize. Based on my analysis, a shortfall has existed since at least 2020. The shortage is not simply the result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In this post, I will provide background information regarding the nature of the shortfall and the international conflict it is leading to. I will also share my thoughts on how, over the long term, the situation might be mitigated. I doubt whether a solution will be available in the short term, but I can at least give readers an idea of one direction in which a possible workaround might be available.
My idea is that the economy needs to transform itself in a way that uses diesel and jet fuel (grouped together on some reports as “middle distillates”) more sparingly. At the same time, research on extracting heavy oil and bitumen at lower cost is needed. If this is done, it may be possible to use additional heavy oil to increase the supply of diesel and jet fuel.
One thing that will probably need to change is the price of diesel relative to gasoline. The price difference will likely need to be even greater than it has been in the recent past because heavy oil is inherently more difficult to extract, refine, process, and transport.
[1] The interconnected nature of the economy means that inexpensive energy products are extremely important to the economy.
Energy supply and the economy are a great deal more interconnected than most people realize. For example, if the price of diesel rises, the price of food also tends to rise because diesel is used in food production and transportation. Similarly, if the price of gasoline rises, the additional cost also tends to squeeze budgets. Politicians see these price increases and say to themselves, “These increases will make voters unhappy. Let’s raise interest rates and see if we can get oil prices back down.”
Higher interest rates don’t affect everyone immediately, but they particularly impact people purchasing a vehicle or a home, and businesses seeking a loan.
Clearly, raising interest rates at the same time as energy prices are rising is “playing with fire.” If the economy is really overstimulated and growing too quickly, this type of approach makes sense. But if the underlying problem is that diesel and jet fuel prices are high because of inadequate world production, what is really needed is higher oil prices, especially for the heavier crude oils that provide a disproportionate share of diesel and jet fuel.
Consumers and oil producers have two different needs for prices:
- Consumers want diesel and jet fuel prices low because high prices wreck their budgets. Diesel is used in growing food and transporting it to market. Jet fuel is used in transporting some kinds of foods. In fact, industries of all kinds (including mining, road building, and construction) use diesel and jet fuel. Higher prices of these fuels tend to make practically any kind of goods or services more expensive.
- Oil producers want diesel and jet fuel prices high, to incentivize investment in new wells. Without additional investment, the quantity of heavy oil extracted and made into these fuels will tend to decrease because of depletion issues.
While prices for diesel and jet fuel are higher this fall, quite a bit of the extra charges relate to extra transport and insurance costs. The high prices need to stay, and perhaps even increase, even if the immediate issues disappear, in order to incentivize greater long-term production. It is these rising prices that are likely to continue to squeeze budgets and push economies toward recession.
[2] What we call “oil” can vary quite widely from well to well. The trend over time has been toward lighter crude oils.
Most people assume that all oil is equivalent, but this is not the case. Petroleum is a mixture of hydrocarbon molecules. The lightest ones are gases are room temperature, the medium weight ones are liquids, and the heaviest ones tend to be quite viscous. Some are even solids. Some oils, especially heavy oils, have sulfur or metal inclusions. Crude oil that contains sulfur is called “sour oil.”
Heavier oils are ones that disproportionately produce diesel and jet fuel. Lighter oils tend to produce more gasoline, along with products like solvents, and the feedstocks for plastics.
In my view, a major reason why there tends to be a shortfall in diesel and jet fuel production (even apart from the current Middle East blockages) is that the type of oil needed tends to be more expensive to extract, refine, and transport than light oil. Furthermore, oil with sulfur tends to be quite corrosive, and removing the sulfur adds another layer of costs. The primary issue I see is that it is hard to pass on the higher production costs of heavy and sour oils to customers.
In theory, to cover all the costs involved related to heavy and sour oils, diesel and jet fuel prices should be quite a bit higher than gasoline prices for the same volume (liter or gallon). But if this were the case, the price of food would also increase, since diesel is extensively used in food production and transportation.
Figure 2 shows end products from the production process. We know, however, that lighter end products tend to come from lighter crude oils, so we can deduce that the crude oil mixture has been getting lighter over time. The amounts in Figure 2 include natural gas liquids, which are very light and growing in quantity.
The earliest oil that was extracted tended to be “medium oil,” which tended to have a mixture of heavier and lighter molecules. As the medium oil depleted, new production tended to be lighter. In particular, US tight oil from shale is quite light. The increasing production of US tight oil from shale is adding to the Very Light layer, as well as the Gasoline layer.
[3] The world had a diesel and jet fuel shortage long before 2026.
Because of the need for diesel and jet fuel in industry and transportation, a person would expect per-capita diesel and jet fuel consumption to grow as industry and international trade grows.
Figure 3 shows that per capita consumption of diesel and jet fuel stopped growing about 2005. The year 2005 seems to be the time that the world’s output of “conventional” (easy to extract) oil reached a peak. Figure 3 also shows that per capita consumption then plateaued until about 2019. It fell 16% in 2020, and it has not been able to fully recover since. The historical data on this chart is only through 2025, but the big Middle East cutbacks in 2026 will clearly send diesel and jet fuel consumption down from the 2025 level in 2026, as indicated by the red arrow.
At least in part, what is happening is that recent oil prices have not been high enough for countries producing somewhat heavy, sour oil. This is especially the case for oil exporting countries that depend on oil revenue to support their economies. They need more revenue than just enough to cover the cost of extraction, plus a reasonable return for shareholders. They also need money to fund the development of make-work projects to employ their citizens and to fund subsidized imported food for their population.
In the peak oil community, there seems to be the view that Middle East oil is always cheap to extract and refine. At one time, this may have been true, but most analyses overlook the tax needs of oil exporting countries. Tax needs are high in countries with exploding populations who need subsidized imported food. Huge make-work projects to provide employment possibilities, such as Saudi Arabia’s construction of the city Neom, add to the need for higher tax revenue. Middle Eastern oil costs may also be rising because of depletion issues, such as wells yielding relatively more water in the oil/water mixture extracted.
[4] For oil exporters, one symptom of chronically inadequate prices for heavy/sour oil (including the need for high tax revenue) is the willingness to engage in war.
If a person looks through my suggested list of heavy/sour oil producers shown on Figure 4, all the countries seem at least somewhat war-like. Even Canada tends to be war-like. Canadian leaders would be much happier if the price of crude oil exported to the US were considerably higher, and it would be less inclined to seek export partners in Asia and Europe.
If the oil production of the heavy/sour countries and country groups found on Figure 4 is added together, the result is as shown in Figure 5. The total production of these countries exceeds the production of the rest of the world.
Notice that the countries of the Middle East tend to be quite price sensitive. Their production dropped steeply in 2020 when oil prices fell. Likewise, their production rose in 2022 when oil prices were temporarily higher, related to the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.
[5] Authorities claim that there would be plenty of heavy oil to refine if prices were to rise high enough for long enough.
The United States Geological Services provides maps of available heavy oil and bitumen deposits. Figure 6 indicates that heavy oil is widely available in North America, Europe, Russia, and the Middle East.
In 2015, the International Energy Agency published a report indicating that in its view, there were huge deposits of extra heavy oil and bitumen (EHOB) that could be accessed if the price of oil rose high enough for long enough (Figure 7). The same exhibit shows somewhat smaller availability of tight oil from shale. In fact, the US has been able to access a substantial amount of tight oil from shale in recent years.
In my opinion, in order to access the EHOB, the prices of diesel and jet fuel need to rise to a high level over the long term; the prices of gasoline and even lighter products don’t necessarily need to rise. If the prices of diesel and jet fuel rise high enough, for long enough, the price signal should work its way back to oil and gas companies, suggesting that they need to make investments in the direction of adding more extraction from EHOB. If this succeeds, it could perhaps relieve the problem of inadequate supply of diesel and jet fuel.
The prices of diesel and jet fuel are high now, but this is at least partly due to higher insurance costs and partly due to the extra costs related to shipping oil longer distances to avoid blocked straits. These extra costs don’t get back to oil companies in a way that encourages countries to extract more heavy oil. What is needed are permanently higher prices for diesel and jet fuel, relative to the price of gasoline, even if the problems with respect to the straits of Hormuz and of Bab al-Mandab, disappear.
[6] Today’s conflicts in the Middle East and Russia/Ukraine seem to relate to inadequate supplies of diesel and jet fuel for buyers of these fuels, and inadequate prices for sellers of the heavy/sour oils yielding these products.
Figure 3, above, shows that the total supply of diesel plus jet fuel has been low, especially since 2020. One issue that has arisen recently is “Who gets the supply of diesel plus jet fuel that is available?” Figure 8 shows that increasingly, it has been the poorer countries of the world who obtain the diesel and jet fuel that is available. Note that total consumption of the Other than Advanced Countries has exceeded that of the Advanced Countries since 2020.
Figure 9 shows that for the Advanced Economies, per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel has been declining since about 2005–the time of peak conventional crude oil. The same figure shows that per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel has plateaued since 2013 for Other than Advanced Countries. I think of 2013 as the year that China first started encountering major limits on coal extraction (somewhat like the year 1970 in the US for oil extraction). In recent years, China has been able to raise coal extraction somewhat, but at a higher cost.
I would expect that countries in both groups would be dismayed by the situation shown in Figure 9. The per capita consumption of diesel plus jet fuel for the Advanced Countries has been falling for a long time. Partly this is the result of the economies changing to service economies. As service economies, the need for diesel by industry has been lessened. Wages tend to be less for many of these service jobs, making workers unhappy.
In Figure 9, people in the Other than Advanced Countries would tend to be dismayed by the continued wide gap between the standard of living of their own economy, and the standards of living in the Advanced Countries. Many of these countries export extracted resources that are ultimately sold as goods to people living in Advanced Countries. If the selling prices of these commodities were higher, workers in these countries could perhaps afford to have cars and air conditioning, like workers in the Advanced Countries. They would also be dismayed by the poor progress in raising their own per-capita consumption of diesel and jet fuel since 2013.
[7] Is there any possibility of greatly ramping up heavy oil production? Could it power a society like the one we have today?
We know that heavy oil production began long ago. For example, the first recorded production of heavy oil began in the Kern River Basin in California in the 1860s, and commercial production began there in 1899. The first production in the Canadian Oil Sands began in 1921, and commercial production there began in 1967.
The extent to which the oil that is heavy and often sour can be ramped up in the future remains to be seen. Extraction techniques have gradually been improving, and I would expect that they can continue to improve. But the cost of extraction and processing will likely remain somewhat high because of all the energy-intensive steps that are needed to provide diesel and jet fuel.
I expect that society itself will need to change in order to make use of this higher-cost oil. These are a few ideas I have:
(a) Oil exporting countries will need to change in ways that reduce their need for tax revenue. This is an issue especially in the Middle East, which has a huge population, in a hot, dry climate. The population will likely need to fall (for example, many migrants and guest workers may need to move back to their country of origin), and make-work projects will need to be discontinued.
(b) Another issue is that total diesel and jet fuel usage will likely need to be reduced because it is likely to take several years before production of heavy oil can be ramped up. Society will need to be reorganized in a way that uses less diesel and jet fuel. One idea would be to shorten supply chains whenever possible. Figure 10 illustrates one idea how this might be done.
(c) I expect that if such a change can be made, economies will need to gradually change in ways that are hard for us to understand now. The focus may need to be on essentials, including food and clothing. Governments may need to be smaller and provide fewer services. Communities may need to be smaller and more walkable. The total population may need to be lower.
[8] Conclusion
It seems to me that the self-organizing nature of economies will gradually push them in the directions they need to go if the world is to start incorporating a significant quantity of expensive products made from heavy oil into its energy mix.
We cannot yet imagine what all the changes will look like. In some ways they may resemble a recession, but there will likely still be an interest in greater complexity and in working to improve people’s lives.
Bali has ordered government employees to work from home and moved school and university classes online as Persistent Fuel queues Disrupt transport across the island
Bali Orders Three Days of Remote Work, Online Classes Amid Fuel Shortage
Looks like we’ve reached the peak.
Looks like we’re all riding a six flag rollercoaster now! (The Malthusian)
This sounds like a sensible approach.
We can see that lock-downs were, as some rightly observed at the time, test-run for all of this.
Chart title: Three dominoes – the AI debt chain, the private credit complex, and the balance sheets behind both
Domino 1: The AI Funding Chain
Estimated total for Domino 1: ~$2.1T (2.1 trillion dollars).
Characteristics: Risk concentrated among a few very large borrowers.
Component breakdown:
$364B: Strong hyperscalers (MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META).
$62B: Landlords and other associated entities (ALPD, C).
$307B: Escrow/problem/children (B) – Bond market warning (grouping of prices in loss/stress territory).
+$1,329B: Off-balance-sheet / securitized / private credit / mid-market.
Highlighted note: The red arrow pointing to Domino 2 indicates that private credit funds (multiple BDCs, LPs, sponsors, and off-balance-sheet structures from Domino 1) finance a large portion of this $2.1T.
Domino 2: Private Credit
Estimated total for Domino 2: ~$3.9T (3.9 trillion dollars).
Characteristics: Risk is distributed and diffuse; thousands of loans valued quarterly by the lenders themselves.
Component breakdown:
+$1,750B: Corporate direct lending loans.
+$1,750B: Asset-backed lending, RC, infrastructure, and other private credit.
+$400B: Fund-level borrowing.
Key details of this section:
The private corporate credit market is approximately $1.7T – $1.8T, with software/technology representing the largest sector.
Implicit adjustment: Shows the underlying equity/portfolio risk in software companies acquired at peak multiples.
Domino 3: The Balance Sheets Behind Both
Estimated total for Domino 3: ~$5.2T (5.2 trillion dollars).
Characteristics: Ultimate absorbers of risk of last resort (pension funds, insurers, retail investors/wealth holders, and banks).
Breakdown by investor/intermediary type:
+$1,050B: Pension funds (~35% of LP capital in private credit).
+$840B: Retail investors / wealth management / wealth (~24% of private credit AUM).
+$580B: Life insurers (~10% of insurance company assets).
+$1,050B: MFOs, endowments, family offices, and other LPs.
+$1,502B: Bank loans to non-banks (financials / non-banks).
+$150B: Banks: Loans to AI projects / construction.
Overall conclusion of the chart
The chart illustrates how the enormous demand for capital to build Artificial Intelligence infrastructure is interconnected with the massive expansion of private credit. If the AI funding chain (Domino 1) comes under pressure or experiences defaults, it will directly affect the private credit system (Domino 2), ultimately transferring the risk to traditional financial institutions, pension funds, savers, and insurers (Domino 3).
I think that this link gets you to the image:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUwL40pWcAAQbAM?format=jpg&name=medium
The predicted weather this weekend is good for the people’s days of speech in France.
I wish someone would start a gofund me for the oppressed peoples of France.
You can be the first to donate your life savings to them.
Protests are on . A clip from Lyon . Many clips live from Paris , Marseilles etc .
The Office of Tourism is being burned down.
What are the protestors protesting: (1) So much government spending, such as on the Office of Tourism, or (2) The fact that tourists are coming to France.
It would seem like it would be the government spending. But if the US is not supporting its desires, then perhaps US tourists are not so welcome either.
It just looks like raw rage. They mostly seem to be youngsters, seeing a chance to join in and let off steam.
Is Paris Burning ?
NOW – Chaos at Place de la République in Paris, France.
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2111518993492173299
NOW – Town hall in Limoges, France, set on fire by rioters.
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/2111508810150051930
Good night folks .
These look pretty awful!
Africans and MENAs want to bring down the French state.
“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair.” -Charles Dickens
The root of today’s oil issues all comes down to this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Sale_and_Purchase_Agreement
Tl, dr, United States gave the Shah of Iran and the King of Saudi Arabia a sweetheart deal, so they could name the oil prices in exchange for buying US weapons.
Below, I said the House of Saud dated from 1932, and the Pahlavi dynasty of Persia dated from the old days of 1925, by a soldier who used to follow the Russian Army.
No one seems to have written anything about why these two monarchs, whose basis of their dynasties extremely weak, were allowed to exercise such great powers (aftre the Shah fell the power to dictate Iranian oil prices passed to the Ayatoolahs as we all know).
I won’t be sarcastic in this post – what did they do to deserve such power and wealth?
What did they di to deserve it? They made a deal with the US. That gave them power and protection.
But Iran’s power did not last long. Sanctions were imposed in 1979.
And nobody knows why US made a deal with them
Trump and his plastic surgery minions are going to take him down . Kristi Levitt . Pam Boindi ; Kristi Noemi , Natalie Harp , Laura Loomer and now the latest Katie Zacharia . Blonde–, dumb and stupid ? I thought that was a joke .
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/10/16/us/politics/katie-zacharia-fired-press-secretary.html
It is said the Houthis are driving the house of Saud, dating from the ancient times of 1932, into trouble.
I have a bunch of things to talk about how the British propped up non Western regimes just to spite continental powers, like Nelson’s battle of Abou Kir, which postponed Palestine from being recovered by the West for almost 140 more years.
Britain propped up Turkey more than once, most recently in 1920s, when it prohibited the Greeks from entering Constantinople and slaughtering all the Turks there, making the Sea of Marmara filled by millions of Turkish corpses,
and also recognizing the regime of Mustafa Kemal(I don’t call him with the name he gave to himself) . At least , out of all people, Mustafa Kemal should have been somehow kidnapped to be machine gunned by the Anzacs to atone for Cannakale (which is what the Turks call the battle in 1915).
T. E. Lawrence incited the tribes of Arabia . After the war he dared to ‘respect’ the rights of the tribes he incited, but they were just pawns, not relevant for the grand scheme of things. Thankfully he was not the kind of person to reproduce , as seen by everyone who watched his biopic, so he left no progeny to write apologetics.
Unfortunately, subsequent policies led the Sauds to amass a huge wealth, which they mostly spent for ravish lifestyles. M. bin Salman made some belated attempt to contribute to the civilization but his efforts were too little and too late.
After all of these are over I don’t think there will be too many people in the Middle East.
The last census of the Turkish Empire took place in 1914, before it jumped into the Great War. The entire pop of Turkey, Armenia, Syria, Palestine and some areas of Iraq totaled 16 million (by that time Turkey had lost most of the European territories)
The total pop of Turkey, Armenia, Syria, Israel, Lebanon and Iraq are about 210 million, an increase of 13 times in 110 years.
I don’t think that will last after this war is over.
You’ve hit on a crucial point about population growth and food insecurity throughout the Third World, and particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (with Morocco and Tunisia as notable exceptions), and even more particularly on the Arabian peninsula, where very little grain of any kind is cultivated and oil exports are the main way pay for food imports.
If and when we get to global economic collapse—and I can see how we can avoid it unless the people in charge well above my pay grade have some major secret solutions up their sleeves—then the Middle East and North Africa is going to be Ground Zero for the great global famine.
This is where we get into the territory of Fast Eddy’s ripping of faces and I AM THE MOB’s view of the COVID “vaccination” campaign as an alternative to something far worse.
I don’t see the whole world being reduced to famine or Mad Max or Soylent Green conditions in the foreseeable future, but I don’t see enough to go round for 8 billion people either. When Gandhi said that “The world has enough for everyone’s needs, but not everyone’s greed,” he was speaking of a world of 2 billion people, not 8 billion. If everybody’s grandparents had “stopped at 2,” we wouldn’t be in quite this mess today. On the other hand, most of us wouldn’t be here at all. My own father was the 15th child in a brood of 17.
The uneven distribution issue that folks don’t think about.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Record-Tanker-Rates-Leave-Heavy-Crude-Stranded-in-the-Americas.html
Record Tanker Rates Leave Heavy Crude Stranded in the Americas
Record tanker rates are creating a heavy crude glut in the Americas, pushing Canadian, Colombian, and Ecuadorian crude prices down roughly $10 per barrel.
Shipping costs have surged to $40 per barrel, making American heavy crude increasingly uneconomical for Asian and European refiners.
The global diesel crunch is set to persist, as tanker shortages prevent heavy crude from reaching markets where demand remains strong.
Russian Urals fetches close to $120 per barrel, and Iran Light sells for $104 per barrel, despite the U.S. Navy blockade. However, these prices exclude freight costs and insurance, and these have reached up to $40 per barrel of crude, at a time when heavy crude is in especially strong demand because of the global diesel crunch. Heavy crude yields more diesel than lighter grades, which is quite a hot topic right now.
“You need a ship and the price of ships are going up, and the availability ships are going down,” TP ICAP analyst Scott Shelton told Reuters. Global tanker rates have soared this year due to Middle Eastern producers taking to ship-to-ship transfers outside the Strait of Hormuz. For this, they use shuttle tankers, including smaller carriers, to sneak the oil through Hormuz and then load it on supertankers in the Gulf of Oman. As a result, supertanker rates from the Gulf to Asia hit $1.4 million daily earlier this month.
More export restrictions on critical minerals from China:
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/beijing-tightens-grip-solar-exports-will-trump-play-americas-quartz-card
Beijing Tightens Grip On Solar Exports: Will Trump Play America’s Quartz Card?
Beijing’s new restrictions on advanced solar technologies and equipment suggest the Trump-Xi meeting in Washington did little to ease trade tensions. The new measures aim to preserve China’s technological advantage as the US and India expand domestic solar manufacturing. This reinforces ongoing concerns about critical materials, where Beijing has placed export controls on tungsten, germanium, gallium, and antimony.
Bloomberg cites a statement released by China’s Ministry of Commerce earlier this morning announcing that it would add 12 solar-related technologies and core equipment to its export-control list, citing national security concerns. The changes form part of a broader revision covering 40 technologies, including AI and biopharmaceuticals. . . .
According to BloombergNEF analysts, the new controls could complicate efforts to diversify the global solar supply chain. Manufacturers in the US and India still depend on China for some critical materials, equipment, and technologies.
IIRC most quartz comes from North Carolina. But it is unlikely that it is the only mine. Quartz is one mineral where discoveries are still possible.
My base case is that all this is an attack on China, Asia, and Global South – the “unintended consequences” are the intended consequences.
That seems quite possible. Cutting off Iran’s oil exports especially hurts China. Cutting off the rest of the Middle East exports tends to hurt Asia and the Global South. Also Europe.
Quite so, ivanislav.
And Europe – furthers de-industrialisation there, and killing off the elderly.
The European conflict may escalate around Kaliningrad and the Baltics.
Kaliningrad Blockade Plan Returns; Baltics Ignore Russia’s Warning
Oh dear! Another spreading conflict.
Since I recently commented about this. It is evident that the EU does not have the wherewithal to arrange for a proper false flag. They are willing to look like the aggressor and drag the war until 2030, somehow, when presumably the newly installed dem government in DC will be ready (or as ready as possible) for a renewed war against Russia. The fact that the US has been essentially depleted militarily is completely lost on them. I think it is a good opportunity for Russia to thin the globalist ranks in Europe.
This is an Alex and Alexander video talking about the Baltic States continued thinking about attacking Kaliningrad in multiple ways: cutting off gas supplies through one pipeline; blockading the shipping; or harming the ship making operations the Russia has going on there. The people with this thinking are of the false belief that stirring up war against Russia would be a good idea. They, with the help of NATO, even without the US, could easily beat Russia.
Of course, this is ridiculous. Putin has said that Russia will defend Kaliningrad, if it is attacked. It would even go as far a nuclear weapons. This thinking seems to have been set aside for the moment, however.
Tim Morgan has just posted another one. I haven’t had time to read it yet.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2026/10/16/329-the-policy-bias-of-flawed-statistics/
I would agree with Tim Morgan on this post. We are moving to an era in which, as far as we can see, the quantity of goods and services we can produce with energy products available is barely rising, or falling. There is no way the existing debt claims can be paid out as planned. Tim mentions AI as one of the bubbles.
Some excerpts from “The Bias of Flawed Statistics”:
There’s an old saying to the effect that “if it isn’t measured, it isn’t managed”. The corollary of this is that if it’s mis-measured, it’s highly likely to be mis-managed.
. . .GDP does not, as is so widely assumed, measure economic output in any meaningful way.
Far from quantifying the amounts of material goods and services produced in any given period, gross domestic product is a tally of transactional activity, which is a very different thing. It’s perfectly possible, indeed commonplace, for money to change hands without any material economic value being added.
. . .
What really happened in the years after 1980 was that the West was de-industrialised, and simultaneously loaded with ultimately unsustainable debt, processes that were falsely validated by the vagaries of GDP.
“Because GDP treats all spending equally, regardless of whether it comes out of income or borrowing”, Shubitz says, “it cannot distinguish between genuine expansion of productive capacity and debt-fuelled financial speculation”.
. . .
In the years between 2005 and 2025, . . . upwards of $7.50 have been taken on to generate each growth dollar.
. . .
On the basis of reported GDP, the World’s average person was 56% better off last year than he or she had been twenty years previously. On the C-GDP basis [Morgan’s estimate], however, this average person’s betterment falls from 56% to just 6%, leaving him or her woefully ill-equipped to carry his or her greatly expanded share of debts and quasi-debts.
. . .
A point necessarily arrives at which the very idea that debts and quasi-debts can ever be honoured “for value” loses all of its remaining credibility.
The super-inflated rise in asset prices has created the lethal illusion that we have more than enough value acting as collateral to support our gargantuan debts and quasi-debts. In reality, though, these aggregate asset values exist purely in paper form, and will evaporate as soon as the inevitable GFC II crisis arrives.
. . .it’s wholly erroneous to value asset aggregates on the basis of marginal transaction prices. This implies that we could somehow monetise the entirety of stock market or real estate value at their current prices, even though the only people who could buy these assets in their aggregates are the same people to whom they already belong.
I don’t like posting videos, but this is basically the summary of everything right now.
The title of this video is, “Gold Could Hit $10,000 by 2029 as Prices Rise “Very Dramatically,” Col. Douglas Macgregor Warns
The video is set to play the last section, which is called “Oil to $200, gold to $10,000, Saudi Arabia’s future.”
MacGreggor says that most people have no idea how badly this war could turn out. We have never had a war on our territory since the US Civil war. The House of Saud will likely fall. The whole MidEast could deteriorate. Gold could hit $10,000 by 2029.
The list of sections is as follows:
00:00 Seven Months Into the Iran War, and Oil Is the Weapon
01:17 The Strike on Riyadh and the House of Saud’s Survival
03:07 Why the Old World Order Has Broken Down
04:00 A New Commodity Supercycle Has Begun
04:55 Why the Navy Can’t Secure the Strait of Hormuz
06:43 How the Houthis Grew to as Many as 350,000 Fighters
09:09 Mining, Defense and the Push Away From China
09:50 Why AI Data Centers Need So Much Copper
10:40 The Refining Problem Nobody Talks About
11:40 The Debt Math He Says “Can’t Be Done”
12:11 Where Oil Goes If America Joins the Houthi Fight
13:12 Why He Says China Wins the Gulf
16:20 The Food and Fertilizer Crisis Coming Next
17:00 Diesel Tops $6, and Washington Turns to Russia
17:40 Who’s Winning the Sanctions War
19:50 Why Gold Has Soared Since 1971
20:46 Can Washington Get Out of the Gulf?
23:08 Rare Earths and Refining Are China’s Real Leverage
25:13 A Third Carrier, the Midterms and the Iran Endgame
25:50 Strike Iran Again and the Gulf’s Oil and Water Get Hit
29:54 Why the Navy Is Stretched to the Breaking Point
32:05 Is a Third Carrier a Show of Strength?
33:00 Rapid Fire: Oil to $200, Gold to $10,000, Saudi Arabia’s Future
https://archive.ph/tmz3H
Is the semiconductor industry headed for an almighty crash? There are reasons to believe a bust, if it comes, will be less vertiginous than the boom.
EXTRACT.
In the early 2000s some 25 firms could make the most advanced processors. Today four can, and TSMC makes nearly all of the high-end ones. Memory chips, which are also vital for AI, have gone the same way. More than 20 firms made advanced memory chips in 1990. Now only three—Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron—make almost all of them. China has produced new entrants in both processors and memory chips, but without access to the most advanced chipmaking tools, they remain behind the frontier.
When I look at stock prices today, NASDAQ is down -1.15%. Dow is up +.25%. This pattern has held for days. Everyone is rotating out of AI.
The WSJ is reporting:
The Riskiest Corner of the AI Trade Is Crashing Into Higher Rates
CoreWeave selloff shows a pressure point from climbing borrowing costs
A onetime cryptocurrency-miner that went public in 2025, CoreWeave is a part of a small group of upstart companies that are both competing with and servicing hyperscalers by renting high-end chips to train and run AI models. Without the scale and profitability of tech giants, the newcomers have been heavily reliant on debt to expand.
Wall Street has hammered those stocks this week. Nebius Group retreated 15% and IREN tumbled 14%, largely mirroring CoreWeave’s 15% decline.
In July, CoreWeave’s bankers revised terms of a syndicated loan sale to attract enough investors, ultimately pricing the debt at a yield above 10%.
At 2:04pm, NASDAQ is down further (-2.14%), and the WSJ is reporting:
Tech Stocks Slump as Nasdaq Faces Weekly Loss
AI anxieties deepen while investors pare rate-hike bets
Tech stocks are poised to finish a tough week on a down note as chip and AI-related shares come under new pressure.
The Nasdaq composite is down 2% in afternoon trading, which would leave the tech-heavy benchmark with a loss of more than 4% for the week, its sharpest since June. The S&P 500 is down about 1% Friday, while the Dow industrials are lower by 0.5% but still up for the week.
Another part of the AI problem:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/aftershock-anthropic-ipo-investors-mark-valuation-down-15-trillion-growth-slowdown-sinks
Aftershock: Anthropic IPO Investors Mark Valuation Down To $1.5 Trillion As Growth Slowdown Sinks In
Anthropic Q3 revenue was a big miss – $16.8bn for the quarter vs $5.4bn implied monthly run-rate for July (which was reported in Aug), implying close to 0 growth in August and September. This has weighed heavily on sentiment, as a key pillar of the AI investment thesis is the ARR growth trajectory of frontier models.
. . .recall that Anthropic still has at least $518 billion in compute commitments over the next decade, about 80% of them non-cancelable, and a $60 billion Broadcom chip-financing package syndicating at the same time. When we tweeted on Oct. 2 that Anthropic was “in a far bigger rush to reload capital” than OpenAI, the point was that the IPO is as much a funding event as a liquidity event. Every $100 billion knocked off the valuation is that much more dilution for the same amount of cash.
Supposedly Tesla with cold-gas thrusters. I don’t get it though.
Like, this is a joke, right? How are they explaining its way up the ramp, even if the thrusters work? I’m going crazy, the internet is playing a joke on me. People are supposed to believe this? Or is it just like an empty frame and they used some sort of big magnet on the ramp? Wtf.
OK sorry for splitting the comments here / train of thought, but the answer is apparently here:
John Carmack
@ID_AA_Carmack
That demo involved a non trivial chance of embarrassing failure! I’m only going for the baseline model. At this point in my life, rocket bunny hops are out of my comfort zone.
Real life, baby
Lucky Genius
@lucky_mouser
how is it not falling when it’s up there stuck to the ceiling? I don’t see any jets during that time
7:49 PM · Oct 15, 2026
John Carmack
@ID_AA_Carmack
Suction fans pulling it down. It doesn’t require the thrusters for that, and it can do it without the tight time limits. This alone will allow extreme cornering and super hard launches.
This must be aimed at 18-year old men, and those who think like 18-year old men. They need to impress ladies.
That’s what you call mal investment! When too much money goes to the few! We need to at least try to solve problems
“those whom the gods wish to destroy, they first make mad”
-Enoch
I suspect the vehicle has a very small battery pack with almost no range, and has absolutely nothing inside. The shell is probably easy to punch through.
It would need to be nearly as light as a feather, as the thrust required to propel a 6000 pound car would have been borderline explosive.
This is a fun gimmick.
In the very near future, we can all be James Bond. 😉
Based on pic, car weight =1 ton, to go up ramp (20 meters?), initial velocity must have been around 20 m/sec (70 km/h), obviously doable, plus some extra velocity for going back, then the jets must have had of order 50 kW power to stop fall successfully. About 8kW if there were 6 turbines. That is a lot for a small turbine but possibly doable. Anyway this model will never be economically successful, of course.
What I didn’t think of was suction fans on the bottom. There was no gas thrust on the way up, so I saw no mechanism. BTW it started from stationary, zero initial velocity.
Man, all those sky-crashes. That’s going to be fun!
This is a new interview with Prof. Robert Pape. France has recently been reported to be sending at least a little assistance to Yemen. Prof. Pape is concerned how this might widen the war. He also talks about Trump’s planned 3-day instant thunder ramped up attack that is planned in the near future. How this could lead to preemptive strikes and unplanned consequences.
In my view there is no need to expand war to Europe for anyone.
Europe is full of old people, young immigrants from Middle East, there are no resources and the economy is going down.
The only ones who could have interest in expanding war to Europe could be some negative group within US, UK or also France and Germany or Baltic Countries or Ukraine or Saudi Arabia, who could have the interest to drag Europe in a war.
But concerning Yemen’s insurgents or Iran, they don’t have any interest to drag weak, decadent and useless Europe in a war.
What good is a place full of elderly people to them and also full of immigrants from their own region and a place with no resources?
Exactly,Student.
The only interested parties to the expansion of war to Europe (already in a overt war with Russia) would be those who might seek to impose a ‘war economy’ – rationing, state direction of labour and place of residence, closing of unwanted economic sectors and industries, conscription into the pathetic armed forces, food and energy rationing, seizure of private property and savings, adulteration of food supply to make it go further (worms) and total censorship ‘for security’ : everything that a war economy would entail.
Therefore, it would only be the US and European/UK rulers, I refuse to call them leaders, not Russia or Iran by any stretch of the imagination.
That should be ‘covert war with Russia’!
This is already evident also in the US: a transition from a somewhat-free-market economy to one in which most expenditures are directed by the state. Covid was a big ratcheting step in this direction, “migration” an even further step up (or down, in terms of our demise).
When people see prices of everything skyrocket soon.
They’re gonna flip
Wholesale prices jumped 6.3% annually in September, biggest gain since 2022
September producer pricne index, retail sales data
Lufthansa tells jets to carry extra fuel into Frankfurt as supplies tighten
By Reuters
October 15, 20262:29 AM EDTUpdated 18 hours ago
Sure, just a bottleneck
Zurich Airport is now also reporting a kerosene shortage. Only by drawing on the statutory reserves was it possible to resolve the bottleneck.
Frankfurt Airport is also struggling with a kerosene shortage, and heating oil prices in Switzerland have doubled in recent days.
Everything hinges on logistics. 😉 Of course!
Signs reading ‘Sold Out’ hanging at the entrances of gas stations. Calabria and Puglia have woken up in the midst of a gravely severe fuel supply crisis, which in recent hours is spreading like wildfire to the rest of southern Italy as well. A true and utter paralysis of urban and extra-urban mobility, triggered by a perfect storm of logistical delays, supply blockages, and social tensions. Meanwhile, the trucking sector has threatened to shut down and bring the country to a halt. The demand is unanimous: immediate relief, concrete aid, and urgent interventions to safeguard businesses and avert the shutdown of production activities and transportation.
https://x.com/rtl1025/status/2110773833812550038/photo/1
In southern Italy, protests against soaring fuel prices are intensifying, with farmers and truck drivers mobilizing across Calabria, Puglia, and Basilicata. The blockades at the Eni refinery in Taranto, tied to the workers’ protest at the former Ilva plant, have slowed deliveries, causing shortages at various fuel stations and long lines, further fueled by fears of additional disruptions. At some stations, diesel has run out, also as a result of a sudden surge in demand. Station managers have reassured motorists that tanker trucks are on the move and that pumps are being regularly restocked. In Calabria, truck drivers have announced a regional shutdown from October 16 to 20.
Long queues today at fuel stations across Calabria due to fears of a fuel shortage. For two days, deliveries have been halted because of protests by workers from the former Ilva at the Taranto refinery, which are preventing the passage of tanker trucks headed to Calabria. Starting Friday, a blockade by Calabrian truck drivers is also expected.
It’s not just Calabria. We from Puglia are in the same situation, just like Basilicata.
The protest isn’t by the workers of the former Ilva, but by the truck drivers and farmers….and it’s already been 3 days in the Foggiano area .
https://x.com/ziapppina/status/2110642692162031839/photo/1
Yes!
Oh my goodness! And it is hard to see the situation getting better. More likely, a similar situation is likely to spread.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2026/10/15/doug-casey-on-the-impact-of-war-on-commodity-markets-2
Looks interesting, but it’s bedtime and I’m too tired to read it all.
First excerpt:
One current difference in how WW3 is evolving is that almost all of the governments of the world are already bankrupt. Historically, governments only go bankrupt during or after wars; this time they’re all bankrupt before the war has really even started. They’re all welfare states with huge fixed domestic spending. They already have an unrepayable amount of debt. That’s never been the case previously.
Along with unsupportable debt, and high levels of currency debasement, taxes are already at the 40%, 50% or 60% level for most countries. Before World War I and even before World War II, taxes, inflation, and debt were only a tiny fraction of present levels. Governments could access huge resources. Even though the world is much richer, it hardly seems possible now. They’re already running on empty.
WW3 will be limited by the financial ability of governments to fight.
Second excerpt:
Most countries don’t produce much of anything locally anymore. The world turns on trade. If you cut off trade—a prime strategy during war—both exporting and importing countries are likely to suffer an economic collapse, or worse.
Third excerpt:
South America is likely to do relatively well. It’s at the end of the road. It wasn’t involved in either World War I or World War II and profited from that fact. . . Europe will be a big loser. Not only is it de-industrializing, but it’s likely to turn into a battlefield again.
What Henrik Zeberg was warning a few weeks ago has already started – bond yields are rolling over and also the DXY (Dollar Index) – he expects it to bottom at 93/94. This is happening despite the fact the latest inflation readings have been worse than expected (PPI index, Core CPI, CPI – inflation metric) – according to him, it’s because the economy is debilitating fast and the bonds are pricing it this no matter the inflation results we might get in the next few months.
According to him, there is not a lot of time left. A massive crash and devastating recession is around the corner, but not before a final leg up in the stock market and other risk assets.
Henrik Zeberg on X: “Now the declines in bond yields and the DXY have begun – which give us the last phase of the Equity Bull Market. Investors will rejoice. Small caps and riskier assets like crypto will soar. It is not the beginning of new Bull Market. But it is the beginning of the End Straigt” / X
This is a link to a recent Substack article that describes Henrick Zerberg’s theory further.
https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/p/the-revolution-is-real-the-bubble?r=ole86&utm_medium=ios&shareImageVariant=poster
THE REVOLUTION IS REAL. THE BUBBLE IS TOO.
Investors are rarely wrong about the future. They are wrong about the price, and about the timing. Four times in 200 years. AI is the fifth.
He says that whenever a new innovation looks to have great value, and there are private investors involved, there is great overbuilding. Investors all want to get in on the next great thing. (On the other hand, when the build out is by the US government, as it was with the US highway system, there is not the problem with great overbuilding. A plan for the whole system was put in place, and building went according to plan.)
He says that a sign that things are going badly is when interest rates (such as 5-year and 10-year Treasury rates) start falling. Such a trend is a sign that the system is heading toward recession because of overbuilding. Investors can sense the problem early.
The initial investors always lose out. The economy becomes very sensitive to how the one favored industry is doing. Eventually, a long time later, the new technology does become useful and cost effective. New businesses make use of the infrastructure that has been built. These businesses can make money.
——-
I would say that that rebuilding based on the new technology was true before our current energy problem. If AI can help us work around our energy problem (make fossil fuel extraction cheap again, for example), it can be helpful. If not, we still have a major problem. There is a lot we don’t know.
Bankrupt states in steep – in fact terminal – decline cannot, it is true, fight high-intensity wars.
But they can declare war, fight on a less intense, even sporadic level on their borders, and use the war situation to repress domestic populations.
This is what is planned.
I would agree.
BMW offered a ” voluntary retirement” package yesterday . The website was overwhelmed with the applicants and crashed .
” BMW employees are rushing for severance pay – and that says it all.
Who wants to work for a corporation anymore that would rather do the dirty work of the failed Berlin elites than build decent cars? Who wants to stay at a company that breaks the moral code over its customers, lectures them instead of serving them, and turns itself into the thought police of the party headquarters?
No one anymore. “
https://x.com/GeraldGrosz/status/2110727019256320088/photo/1
Sad situation.
Germany’s car dealerships are disappearing at an alarming rate. While German manufacturers are shrinking their dealer networks, Chinese competitors are expanding massively.
Massive Decline: In 2010, there were still around 14,500 branches of brand dealers in Germany; by 2025, that number had dropped to just 10,000. This represents a decline of about 31 percent. According to a study by the Institute for Automotive Economics, another 15 percent could disappear by 2035.
Chinese Expansion: While BMW, Mercedes, Audi, and VW are reducing their sales networks, BYD is growing rapidly. The Chinese manufacturer is now represented at around 150 locations in Germany, compared to just under 30 the previous year. At the same time, large German dealer groups are earning less money despite rising sales figures and revenues.
The German car trade is under significant economic pressure, while Chinese manufacturers are consistently expanding their market presence.
Dramatic development: In September 2026, the Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle registered 1,666 insolvencies of individuals and corporations. That was nine percent more than in August and around 85 percent more than in an average September before the pandemic.
Dangerous chain reaction: Creditreform counted around 12,900 corporate insolvencies in the first half of 2026, an increase of 7.8 percent. In June alone, the registered creditor claims amounted to 3.9 billion euros according to the Federal Statistical Office. Payment defaults can drag further companies into financial difficulties.
The persistently high number of insolvencies shows how much economic substance of many German companies is now under pressure.
Multi-million burden: Schaeffler reports special charges of 240 million euros in the field of e-mobility for the first nine months of 2026. Group revenue fell to 17.5 billion euros. Despite rising revenues, e-mobility remains deep in loss territory with an adjusted operating margin of minus 14.8 percent. Job cuts: Of the planned 4,700 positions, 3,715 had already been eliminated by the end of September. The adjusted group margin was 4.5 percent, while free cash flow after nine months reached minus 40 million euros. At the same time, Schaeffler recorded new orders worth around 400 million euros in the field of humanoid robotics. Schaeffler shows how severely structural change is economically burdening even large German industrial conglomerates and forcing profound adjustments.
Schaeffler is the world’s largest OEM supplier to the auto industry . There is no car in the world that does not have a Schaeffler product .
Using robots instead of people leaves people without jobs, however.
The global economy is in a depression
One of my ex’s, her husband has worked as computer programmer for 15 years. Went into military, then collage afterwards. Just lost his 80k job this year to AI and downsizing.
He then had some sort of mental health breakdown and went to mental hospital for month. And now he works at Wal Mart for 15 bucks an hour.
he’s a father of 3. 41 years old.
There are way too many stories like this.
The low Chinese prices are possible because China is selling below cost. Various Chinese government groups are lending money to failing Chinese car makers, to keep them alive and allow them to sell vehicles at below their true cost.
BMW’s management has once again royally screwed up here.
I’ve heard of cases where employees who’d been with BMW for 3-4 years were offered severance packages of 4 years’ salary. So we’re talking 300-400,000€ in no time flat.
Hand on heart: Who wouldn’t jump ship for that kind of money? Even if you don’t land a comparable job right away, you’ve got such a massive financial cushion that it’s worth it.
For employees over 50, it’s an absolute no-brainer. Invest the cash and then coast through part-time work until retirement.
China’s coal production down 3% in first 8 months of year among other things.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/asia-scrambles-coal-energy-crisis-sends-prices-two-year-high-ahead-winter
Asia Scrambles For Coal As Energy Crisis Sends Prices To Two-Year High Ahead Of Winter
As the Northern Hemisphere winter quickly approaches, Asian thermal coal prices have climbed to two-year highs and could be on the cusp of a major breakout as utilities stockpile the dirty fuel amid disruptions to natural gas and crude product markets caused by the war in Ukraine and the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
Newcastle coal futures, an Asian benchmark, are up more than 40% on the year and could surge even higher if the $150-a-ton level is sustained. . .
According to Bloomberg, China’s coal output has fallen more than 3% in the first eight months of the year after a deadly mining accident earlier this year triggered safety inspections and prolonged shutdowns.
A limit China seems to be hitting:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/does-china-have-enough-water-its-thirsty-ai-data-centers
Does China Have Enough Water For Its Thirsty AI Data Centers?
According to China’s Ministry of Water Resources, China has nearly one-fifth of the world’s population but only about 6 percent of global freshwater resources.
hat presents planners in Beijing with a challenging problem: How to support 20 percent of humanity, more than 18 percent of global economic output, and an expanding digital economy, with a disproportionately small water resource?
Things become even more complicated because China’s most economically developed regions are not necessarily where water is most abundant.
Now, Beijing wants to build substantially more artificial intelligence (AI) computing capacity. That raises another fundamental question: Can China expand its AI infrastructure without worsening its existing water crisis?
Canada is a similar size to China but has a lot more water but a smaller population. Solution: China should invade Canada – or preferably work out a pact with Trump, whereby he can keep the Eskimos and claim a triumph.
Another move to get out of the Ukraine-Russia mess:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/trump-admin-floats-unfreezing-russian-assets-big-move-restart-talks
Trump Admin Floats Unfreezing Russian Assets In Big Move To Restart Talks
President Trump appears to be busy rolling back years of entrenched Ukraine policy. Starting last week he announced the controversial diesel deal with Putin, and this week Ukraine’s Zelensky is complaining that intelligence-sharing has been throttled, and possibly even cut off.
The possibility or even likelihood of this heading to another TACO moment aside, what’s next? New reporting in the Financial Times gives an idea. The United States has floated a proposal that European countries unfreeze some of Russia’s sovereign assets and deposit them in an entity controlled by Washington.
The FT report cites four people familiar with the matter, who describe that the idea was formally presented by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner during a meeting of Western allies and Ukraine in Miami on Oct.10.
Quite the contrary, I think big escalations are coming. NATO is looking to blockade Kaliningrad to try and force Russia to drop nukes. Then Trump will be all justified to nuke the hell out of Iran. They are one tam after all. They have no reverse gear and they keep losing.
El Nino to bring famine?
I imagine there is some truth in this video, but it is clearly an AI video. The blurb says:
A powerful climate pattern is developing in the Pacific Ocean, and scientists are comparing its potential strength with some of the most extreme El Niño events in recorded history. The year 1877 carries a chilling warning: a devastating climate crisis unfolded across several continents, contributing to widespread drought, crop failures, and a catastrophic global famine.
Now, in October 2026, the developing El Niño is strengthening rapidly. NOAA’s latest outlook gives an 83% chance of a strong-to-very-strong event continuing through January–March 2027, while the agency estimates a 70% chance that it will qualify as a historic event during November 2026–January 2027.
But why does the year 1877 matter so much?
Between 1875 and 1878, severe, prolonged drought affected parts of Asia, Africa, and Brazil. The resulting crop failures contributed to a global famine with an estimated death toll exceeding 50 million. Researchers associate this catastrophe with an exceptionally strong El Niño, unusual Indian Ocean conditions, and other climate factors acting together.
The historical comparison is alarming—but it requires caution. Scientists still face uncertainty when reconstructing the exact strength of the 1877–78 El Niño because direct ocean measurements from that era were limited. And even a very strong El Niño does not mean every country will experience the same weather or the same risks.
What makes this developing event important is its potential to reshape rainfall patterns, increase heat risks in vulnerable regions, intensify drought in some areas, and bring excessive rainfall to others. The effects will depend on geography, seasonal timing, and other climate patterns.
Could the world be heading toward another historically powerful El Niño?
What lessons can modern forecasting systems learn from the disaster of 1877? And which regions should be watching the developing conditions most closely?
INDIA’S RABI CROP UNDER THREAT? EL NIÑO & WATER CRISIS RAISE ALARMS
Telangana has urged farmers to reconsider Rabi sowing as drought-like conditions, falling groundwater levels and reservoir shortages intensify.
Key concerns:
Reservoirs below full capacity due to poor inflows
Shortages of electricity and drinking water
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4c9.svg
Singur project water expected to meet drinking needs only until December 2026
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f321.svg
Severe El Niño conditions could worsen the crisis in the coming months P. Sudarshan Reddy, Advisor to the Telangana Government, has urged farmers to avoid a second crop unless adequate water is available.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1ee-1f1f3.svg
The warning raises a wider concern for INDIA’S RABI SEASON: if water shortages spread and irrigation becomes constrained, farmers may reduce sowing or shift crop choices, potentially affecting production. With a strong El Niño forecast for 2026–27, water availability and weather risks deserve close monitoring across India. #ElNino#IndiaAgriculture#Rabi2026#AgTwitter#AgWx
I needed to understand what a RABI crop is.
The agricultural season in South Asia in which rain is scarce and only irrigated crops are grown, with crops sown in October and November and harvested from March to May.
I can see that a water shortage would be a big problem.
Rabi means ” rice ” and kharif means wheat in India .
Follow this guy for info on agricultural crops — production , prices etc . Loads of data .
https://x.com/gaurav_kochar
According to him, clearly Pakistan is having a problem with its food crops.
Severe drinking water crisis loading across Major cities and many districts across India , Also food inflation, electricity shortage.. are we ready to face some discomfort?
Some discomfort? You’re underexaggerating a bit, Ravi.
Oh, dear!
The current problem here in CE is that due to lacking rain, sown grains do not germinate, as I was told by my nephew, who is a farmer, yesterday.
“El Nino” Chris Farley – YouTube
I don’t mind whether people like me or not, since people like me are rarely liked anywhere.
Giving everything to the top and leaving nothing for the rest is very justified since it is no different from supporting your best horses and culling the rest.
The days of the working class in the so called first world living with a higher standard are ending in a rapid pace.
The current crisis in France is ultimately based on pension. Basically there are too many old people to support, while the younger people, a lot of them Arabs and Africans with zero affinity to the older French, not really willing to support them while no political arrangement will dare to touch it.
Sorrow of an old man, van Gogh, 1890 (the year he shot himself)
No furniture except a chair , worn shoes, which is all that the old man had.
Such was how things were and where it is going back to.
The old guitarist, by Pablo Picasso, before he began to draw broken faces. He saw this guitarist, begging to support his old miserable existence, in Barcelona around 1900.
Such was the fate of poor when Civilization worked.
The working class old is too spoiled and they will be eventually brought low . The pension will be defaulted or watered down to nothing, so those who actually produce value can continue to live.
Poor Kulm
I don’t mind whether people like me or not, since people like me are rarely liked anywhere.
Reminds me of this
Ah, the good old days, can’t wait for their return
To paraphrase Goethe: “The absolute worth of civilization is its impetus toward the universality of thought.”
The impetus of TBTB is myopically particular. Worse yet, via an extension of the Dunning Kruger effect they lack the universality of thought to evaluate their own particularity.
Everything an individual does is part of a complex feedback loop with the rest of society. The optimization and achievement of any individual is inexorably tied to the General Will and impetus toward universality of everyone else. It is this General Will and universality that constitutes civilization.
Universality is predicated on reciprocity between parts and between the parts and the whole, yet TPTB exert unsublimated will to power over others via deception, dominance and submission. This is opposed to sublimated will to power over oneself via the acquisition of knowledge and exercise of virtue. Only the later is consistent with an impetus toward the universality of thought.
In the context of the absolute worth of civilization, the worth of TPTB is minimal. Ironically, via pathological narcissism, psychopathy, and the Dunning Kruger effect TPTB afford themselves maximal worth and conceive of themselves as the creators and advancers of civilization, and in the limit, civilization itself.
Public libraries start to distribute seeds
“The Seed Library works a little differently than a traditional library. While you return a borrowed book in its original condition, with seeds, the goal is to grow a new generation of plants. You can then harvest more seeds from them, which will be useful to someone else.”
Translated with DeepL.
https://www.pravda.sk/zahrada/rady-a-tipy/clanok/2058037-semienkaren-semena-zadarmo-vymena-osiva-kosice
The reality facing today’s job seekers:
“Companies remain silent; job seekers are blindly rewriting their resumes
Even after hundreds of applications, Štefan Koreň still doesn’t know what’s holding him back. How can you look for a job when companies won’t tell you the reason for rejection?
Štefan Koreň delivers baked goods at night. A senior SEO specialist, consultant, and web developer specializing in front-end and WordPress, he says he has 22 years of experience, including work on international projects. However, after collaborating with clients in the U.S., he was unable to find further employment in his field. He also looked for work outside of it. He personally distributed about a hundred resumes in the Poprad area. According to him, no one got back to him.
On LinkedIn, he described his experience as 350 rejections. He clarified for TREND that this number also included unsolicited outreach that went unanswered—which made up the overwhelming majority. He kept revising his resume. “I have no idea if I’m doing something wrong, or where and what the problem actually is,” he said.
After each rejection, Koreň would tweak the resume he had on hand. However, he didn’t receive any feedback from companies that would help him decide what to change. A job seeker looking for a new position while already in stable employment faces the same problem: it’s easier to send out another resume than to figure out why the previous attempt failed.”
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
https://www.trend.sk/vzdelavanie-a-hr/firmy-mlcia-uchadzaci-prepisuju-zivotopisy-naslepo?itm_modul=najcitanejsie_24h&itm_brand=trend&itm_template=hp&itm_position=2
I am afraid this is a world wide problem for experienced programmers.
You can tweak , rewrite etc , etc . The problem is there are no new jobs . Economic system is in permanent contraction . Period .
This isn’t new. Same problem existed for young people in 2008. We were told to learn to code………
The lack of feedback isn’t a bug. It’s a feature.
It’s designed to drive you insane.
Like that experiment with the puppies given completely random shocks: everyone eventually seizes up and becomes catatonic (which behooves Them).
Hi Gail and everyone. Thanks for all your comments.
Greatly inspired by cultural anthropologist Alf Hornborg’s dissection of all-purpose money as a social technology, I have been thinking about how our financial metrics mask the underlying biophysical reality and have a growing need to share my thoughts.
Postulate: Money steers humanity’s use of power in both the societal and biophysical realms.
Years ago, I rode a much simpler bicycle than Gail’s, where both the drive and braking functions were built into the pedals. Once, the chain snapped—though fortunately, I wasn’t heading down a steep hill at the time. Reflecting on that bicycle frame offers a useful, simplified model of our economic reality, consisting of just three core elements: the pedals, the handlebars, and the rider.
In this economic bicycle, the pedals, gears, and chain represent the biophysical power that physically propels society forward. The human rider sits in the saddle, providing the libido—the human organism’s collective metabolic and neurological drive. Yet, the rider remains entirely subservient to the handlebars: the ‘all-purpose money’ steering mechanism that forces the entire vehicle toward the imperative of monetary growth. A fundamental characteristic of this ‘all-purpose money’ design (its economic ‘gene’) is that everything, including our physical limits, can be sacrificed to this growth imperative—a process that, in practice, drives an unequal ecological and biophysical exchange (Hornborg, 1998).
Presented here is a concept for a new economic system, introducing a purpose-specific medium of exchange engineered for a contracting economy. Within this framework, value (or ‘price’) is tethered directly to both the energy embedded in producing goods and services and the chemical/thermal energy contained within the goods and services themselves.
The formula: Price = E-embodied + E-chemical/thermal
This complementary currency operates within a regulated energy market, where a state or regional(/local) allocation is distributed monthly to all citizens as a biophysical Universal Basic Income.
The currency is redeemable for locally produced food and services, regional mobility and electricity, and local/regional heat (including clothing and space heating). To prevent capital accumulation, the allocated currency is extinguished automatically at the spring equinox. The initial monthly allocation is set at 350 kWh per individual.
Concurrently, a structural tax shift could optionally take place: VAT could be phased out and replaced by a flat energy tax of 10 cents per kWh applied to all domestic energy consumption (excluding food) and an equivalent tariff levied on all imports. Consequently, all purchases transacted through this energy currency remain entirely exempt from consumption taxes.
I am not sure whether your approach will work.
One thing I am concerned about is whether there will be enough food for everyone. If there isn’t, how will the food be allocated? I would think that the farmers and the others in the supply chain that produce the food should be high up on the allocation approach.
I expect that there will be a lot of used furniture for sale, but that few people will want it for purposes other than to burn it to cook their food. Wouldn’t its price need to be fairly low?
Doesn’t the approach need to match reality on the ground, at any given time? Ancient civilizations seemed to use clay tablets to record quantities that a person brought to a market, marked in some unit such as “barrels of rye equivalent”. They could use this credit (perhaps less a service charge) to buy other goods in the market. Wouldn’t a variation on this approach work today?
Of course, this approach doesn’t provide the lending needed to support agriculture and other industries. This needs to be added separately. In the past, a King or someone similar provided such short term debt. Parts of it was forgiven at intervals, to prevent known distortions.
I am, of course, not entirely sure how such a currency would work in practice either. First, to clarify: the complementary currency creates a parallel market for specific goods and services. Each item or service could have two prices and these prices will then compete in the same marketplace, allowing the customer to choose freely which currency to use for the transaction.
Secondly, I admit that my own vantage point might make me short-sighted, which perhaps colors my view with a sense of (false?) confidence in the face of the suddenly accelerating contraction we are currently witnessing. The Nordic countries as a whole presently enjoy undeservedly large advantages. In particular, the abundance of freshwater is a massive benefit compared to the rest of Europe and the world at large. Nearly 10 percent of Finland’s surface area consists of freshwater. Furthermore, the per capita areas of forest, healthy arable land, and fishing waters are relatively vast. Finland, together with Sweden and France, currently has the highest nuclear power capacity per capita, and Iceland had the largest energy supply per capita in 2025. North Sea oil is still delivering prosperity to our nations. Agriculture, forestry, and their related products will be highly prioritized.
Any products and services with low prices will have an advantage in the market. If the availability of fossil-fueled labor is hypothetically halved after 5 years, a large portion of the population will grow a significant amount of easy-to-cultivate food for their own households, selling any surplus on the market, or bartering goods and services with their neighbors. Farming that requires diesel will increasingly be managed by collectively owned agricultural cooperatives. We will have transitioned to collective mobility and abandoned travel to Asia. We will stop producing vast quantities of pulp and toilet paper for export because timber will be needed for sustainable buildings—and the forests will be allowed to grow for longer periods than they do now. We will not produce large quantities of green steel or hydrogen, and when the energy tax was raised, diesel engine manufacturing relocated to the US to power the data centers still operating there. Google’s and Microsoft’s megaprojects in the Nordic region are now industrial waste, and the forests and fields are gradually reclaiming the cleared land.
All waste, such as abandoned furniture, carries no embodied energy – only its thermal or chemical value. Premium timber or good design will not be burned. We will cook our food on electric stoves in the summer and on wood-fired stoves in the winter.
Electricity will likely not last longer than petroleum.
In most places, petroleum became available before electricity. Electricity was added later, with petroleum making the addition of electricity transmission lines and many other needed parts possible. As we lose oil, we also lose electricity. In fact, this winter, it is possible that electricity may become only intermittently available in Europe. Electricity is difficult to store. That is why it depends on things like whether the wind is blowing. Solar energy is not much available in winter. That is a big issue.
I completely agree.
First of all, industrial production plummets, with car manufacturing as a key indicator. What remains of the abundance is the scrap and the desire for innovation, with Cuba’s cars as an example. The hybrid car is a hedge; it might run a little longer than the others. The bicycle runs the longest. After 25 years, we might have a thriving scrap economy instead of the growth economy. In a scrap economy, all-purpose money does not work; we have other mediums of exchange. What could they look like? And what use could we have for the hybrid’s two engines? What all can we do with the decaying windmills?
Yesterday, the public address system in my village played a sad song, as if they were announcing someone’s death. This was followed by an announcement urging residents to conserve water and restrict their usage to essential needs, as the water level in the well supplying the public water system is dropping. If the situation continues, emergency water deliveries by tanker trucks may eventually become necessary.
Is there a neighboring nation with a river that can be diverted to Slovakia? No water is fatal.
Nearly all rivers in Europe seem to be low right now. Nothing near Slovakia.
Also, Slovakia is uphill from where the big rivers are. It’s basically in the Carpathian mountains, not far from Transylvania.
In the 1966 movie Dracula Prince of Darkness, starring Christopher Lee and Peter Cushing, Carlsbad, which is actually in present-day Czechia is introduced as a local village in the Carpathian Mountains near Castle Dracula that the main characters travel toward before being brought to the castle.
Four English tourists—the Kents—arrive at a local tavern near Carlsbad. They meet Father Sandor, a fierce local abbot who tries to shame the local villagers out of their extreme vampire paranoia. When the tourists mention they are traveling to Carlsbad, Sandor explicitly warns them to stay away from the area and the castle dominating its skyline.
Ignoring the priest’s warning, the Kents press on. However, as night approaches, their terrified coachman refuses to drive any further into the Carlsbad area. He forces the tourists out of the carriage at knife-point right outside the castle grounds, stranding them.
Are we scared yet!?
Left on the outskirts of Carlsbad, a mysterious driverless carriage picks up the tourists and transports them directly to Castle Dracula. It is here that Dracula’s loyal, sinister butler, Klove, uses the blood of one of the tourists to revive Dracula’s ashes, setting off the rest of the movie’s horrific events.
Ultimately, Carlsbad serves as the ominous, taboo destination that the characters are trying to reach, only to be intercepted by the supernatural forces of the valley before they can get there safely. A bit like Slovakia, if MG’s reports are anything to go by.
I am, always warning English tourists on the Grand Tour not to go off the beaten track.
Just a few miles through the forest from Slovakia…….There are horrors that will shock you!!!
Tim, I still remember that scene of him spilling the blood into the casket.
So then your tongue was hanging out, and now your secret is out too. 🙁
“Like one, that on a lonesome road / Doth walk in fear and dread / And, having once turned round, walks on / And turns no more his head / Because he knows a frightful fiend / Doth close behind him tread”
Christopher Lee: truth in Black Magic.
Gosh, they know how to pile on the misery don’t they? ‘A sad song’.
It should be heralded by something light, cheerful. Then people could embrace the5r Doom positively.
Monty Python’s ‘Bright Side of Life’ would be another option. But perhaps the humour would not translate well?
Apocalyptic floods in Greece. Big floods in Italy and Turkey. Be patient.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/14/container-ship-sinks-strait-hormuz-as-iran-war-attacks.html
Container ship sinks in Strait of Hormuz as Iran steps up attacks
This says:
A container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday as Iran escalated its attacks on commercial vessels.
The GFS Pride, registered in Singapore, sank after it was struck by an unidentified projectile and caught fire. The ship’s 21 crew members were safely evacuated and no injuries were reported, according to the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore.
This will make other shippers unwilling to take this route.
The IRGC say it hit a mine.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/248588/Container-carrier-sinks-in-Strait-of-Hormuz-after-explosion
Mohsen Rezaei has stated that vessels further afield will also be targeted if they attempt to defy the new rules(which may soon include association with the aggressor) and AnsarAllah are not only advancing at pace, but also making time to win the moral game and doing it very well.
They negotiate to stop the fighting and then tell the people to take back what is theirs and rule themselves(a bit like Cyrus the Great. The Iranians will be impressed). So further afield probably has some scope to it.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/exclusive-mediation-efforts-ongoing-to-free-taiz-without-fig
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/energy/the-sheer-ignorance-of-whats-at-stake-globally/
Martin Armstrong takes aim at the neo-cons (specifically Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, Co-Chair at the Center for American Security, America First Policy Institute) that he believes want war with Russia, which he regards as sheer folly. He describes how disastrously he imagines things would turn out if we went to war against Russia.
This starts out:
This is a textbook case of how someone can reach the top of one field and still be utterly clueless about everything else. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg served as National Security Advisor to former Vice President Mike Pence and later as Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia. . .
He advocates that Zelensky should tell President Trump to go to hell and destroy every refinery in Russia.
Martin Armstrong takes aim at the Neocons. But I think the problem is just as much on the Liberal Left end of the spectrum.
There was a comment recently talking about how two of the European leaders wanted more attacks against refineries. At dinner, I mentioned to my husband (who is a Democrat) that Trump seemed to have stopped attacks against refineries by putting limits on the speed at which StarLink will support giving information on Ukraine drones/missiles. He thought that was terrible. He said, “We need to support our allies.”
I changed the subject, rather than start an argument. He does not follow the oil shortages subject closely.
There is surely something behind the scenes. Like, maybe Russia has promised escalation in space, and Musk needs to preserve his assets. Having private entities build important infrastructure cuts both ways.
I agree, there must be something that we will understand better later on.
I think that Trump’s administration closed the diesel deal giving some concessions back to Russia.
My impression is that the weight of defeat will be totally given to EU.
US is cleverly going out with some good results (from a war they themselves had created 😀 )
It is only delicate to check what ‘buzzkill’ UK will end up doing, because Germany, France, Italy shouldn’t create problems.
Maybe also Baltic Countries could play a ‘little’ trick.
I hope not, of course, in fact entering this war was a totally stupid decision, expecially for us, Europeans.
The problem of creating a false flag to steer events in their direction, for the EU, is that their apparati are totally infested with “stay behind” people from operation Gladio and other infiltration projects. Ursula is just one ultra-clear example, the gynecologist grand daughter of the Nazi governor of Ukraine during WWII. EU is totally powerless and also run by corrupt people. Triple whammy, and hard times ahead.
We can be sure that we see only the very tip of the iceberg, as it were; and that is nothing more than a hologram….
Les prix du Diesel pourraient continuer à grimper jusqu’en 2027
https://2000watts.org/index.php/energies-fossiles/petrole/prix-petrole/1493-les-prix-du-diesel-pourraient-continuer-a-grimper-jusquen-2027.html
Diesel prices could to rise until 2027
Diesel prices in Europe, Africa, and Latin America could start rising again in the coming weeks, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The shortage of this valuable fuel could last until mid-2027. This is rather good news for owners of oil-fired heating systems and for those fortunate enough to own diesel vehicles.
While the Strait of Hormuz saw a surge in oil tanker traffic during September, Iranian attacks have deterred even the most daring ship captains. Several tankers were hit this week, effectively closing the port. Meanwhile, demand remains very strong.
Will prices rise high enough to destroy demand?
It’s not just the price of oil that’s rising, but also transportation costs. They’re skyrocketing. This surge in maritime shipping prices suggests that diesel fuel prices could well rise again on these three continents in the coming months, unless a recession hits.
Last month, the price of diesel reached $220 per barrel on wholesale markets in Europe and the United States. Meanwhile, crude oil hovered around $100 per barrel.
The diesel premium soared to $120 for 159 liters ( see article ), resulting in high prices at gas stations.
However, global economic activity is sluggish, and demand remains high. The question is at what price level will demand begin to be destroyed.
Furthermore, the IEA indicated that global oil demand “will fall by 2.6 million barrels per day this year and forecasts a slightly weaker recovery next year.”
The article goes on to talk about various topics. I found these interesting:
European Natural Gas:
Methane gas prices have reached €87.20 per megawatt-hour, compared to €32 before the war. Methane storage facilities are only 74% full, down from 90% at this time in previous years.
Africa
Before the war, African oil demand was experiencing strong growth of 3.4% per year. Today, this growth has completely reversed, turning into a contraction of -2.5% year-on-year between March and August.
The African economy cannot afford such expensive diesel. Egypt, Africa’s largest oil consumer, saw its consumption fall by more than 12% in the second quarter, the sharpest decline in the region.
The shortage of this valuable fuel could last until mid-2027. This is rather good news for owners of oil-fired heating systems and for those fortunate enough to own diesel vehicles.
WTF!? Why is this good news!?
I copied in what the article said. I had the same reaction. Proofreading is not always the best.
C’est de l’humour…le rédacteur de l’article est très bien informé, son point de vue est indépendant, et il pratique un ton léger pour faire sourire le lecteur…
Translation:
It’s meant to be humorous… the author of the article is very well-informed, his perspective is independent, and he adopts a lighthearted tone to bring a smile to the reader’s face…
A heads up . On 17th is going to be synchronized protests all over France . Watch for some fireworks .
What is the subject of the protest?
It started off as a student protest a month ago but now it is becoming an anti govt protest . The far Left is heavily involved. .
What are they against? Or is it just more unfocused its fun to wreck shit protests?
It’s cause the high fuel prices. They always burn down France when this happens.
Remember the yellow vest protest?
*Half the vehicles in France run on diesel.
General dissatisfaction.
Seneca Cliff
Who is paying for this?
K shaped economy along with energy crisis…The tinder is there globally. According to Peter Turchin, the spark starts with disenfranchised Elites. I thought Europe had more social safety net than in the US? In the US, there’s a lot of Tik Tok videos of people moving into their cars as they can’t afford rent anymore.
Talked with a friend today, he works in the school system, his wife in state security. There’s a lot of blaming between established political parties for increasing chaos. He said that with 3 kids and a diesel car in the countryside, right now he pays about €100 premium a month compared to last year.
There seems to be a pretty high level of anxiety there, in particular because of the brainwashing about the danger of Russia, causing cognitive dissonance among regular people who don’t understand the dilema between accepting the economic domination of a ressource rich neighbor, or trying to bring it down and plunder it.
the dilemma between accepting the economic domination of a resource rich neighbor, or trying to bring it down and plunder it
Well said.
Talked with a friend today, he works in the school system, his wife in state security.“
Sure.
Jean Laherrère updated his Canada outlook:
https://aspofrance.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/2026-Canada.pdf
Very optimistic for natural gas, so could Canada provide for Europe?
I would point that natural gas shipped to Europe as LNG is necessarily very high priced natural gas. Affordability is likely to be a huge issue, early on.
The folks in Europe don’t really have adequate storage either. They would like to buy what they need, when they need it. This creates a problem from a demand point of view. Or Canada needs to store the natural gas for Europe. Another possibility would be that natural gas extraction could be “shut in” for part of the year. All of these issues lead to the sale of natural gas to Europe being less profitable than people would like.
I haven’t looked at where the natural gas is located in Canada. If it is in the western part of Canada, getting it to the Eastern part presents another problem (and cost).
Gail you forgot the gas loading facilities needed and ports . Each facility costs $ 12-15 billion . Of course also the time span . Not going to happen . Long term contracts needed which are not possible in current circumstances .
Agreed! Many issues with this.
It would be a whole lot more sensible to build pipelines to the US (or use existing ones) and ship the natural gas to the US. The US has more population. Pipelines, if they are not too long, are reasonable cost. They don’t need electrical connections; part of the natural gas can be utilized to propel the gas along.
There is more than one way to end Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s refineries:
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/spacex-reportedly-caps-starlink-speed-kiev-defies-trumps-calls-halt-refinery-strikes
SpaceX Reportedly Caps Starlink Speed As Kiev Defies Trump’s Calls To Halt Refinery Strikes
Reports say that SpaceX has imposed a movement-speed restriction on certain Starlink terminals used in Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent cited presidential adviser Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov, who wrote on social media that the measure took effect overnight and applies to the StarShield “military service package,” setting a threshold of 100 miles per hour (about 160 kilometers per hour).
“I confirm that (Starlink owner) SpaceX implemented speed restrictions on Starlink terminals while in motion last night. Currently, the restriction applies to the StarShield ‘military service package’ and limits speed to 100 miles per hour (160 kilometers per hour),” Beskrestnov said in a post on social media. . .
“The consequences are already being felt in the field. Since the start of the day alone, a drone unit operating within the 7th Corps’ area of responsibility in the Huliaipole sector has had to cancel a number of missions due to these connectivity issues,” Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps told the outlet.
Western media, such as the Financial Times, said Ukraine was “blindsided by Starlink restrictions and intelligence gaps during Russian attack.”
So first off Trump (somewhat luke-warmly) and Musk (more enthusiastically) were supporting Ukraine. Now Trump’s war against Iran has backfired, leading to a world shortage of fossil fuels that has increased their price, and for the mighty USA too. So Trump and Musk are now panicking and trying to stop Ukraine destroying Russia’s energy supplies, so that Putin is not obliged to retaliate. What a perfect mess. Such incompetents. Where are the politicians with the intellectual calibre of Gail? I ask you and mean to say. 🙁
Isn’t collapse somewhat a synonym of chaos?
Does chaos cause collapse or does collapse cause chaos? Or is it a bit of both?
collapse is the catalysis that causes chaos.
Slow-motion collapse though, taking almost a human lifetime for people born in the 1940s or early 50s.
Agreed!
In response to Neil H .
The Great generational change . Patrick Raymond
” During the great shock of 1973/74, let’s think in terms of generations. A 50-year-old man at the time, born in 1923, had lived through the war, knew that everything could collapse and set living standards back considerably. He didn’t think about travel; that idea only came tentatively, at first, with the post-war generation.”
https://lachute.over-blog.com/2026/10/du-grand-changement-generationnel.html
“The collapse in alcohol-related mortality in France from 1940 onwards is a direct consequence of the Second World War and the Occupation. While France held one of the world records for consumption, the conflict abruptly depleted alcohol resources, leading to a dramatic drop in deaths related to chronic alcoholism and cirrhosis.”
Wow!
I would expect somewhat of a similar effect elsewhere, as clean water for drinking became available. There would no longer be a need to drink water with wine added, to make it safer to drink.
On the other hand, as clean water availability disappears, as in Russia, then a greater dependence on alcohol (from vodka, made from potatoes) for safe drinking liquids may grow.
If one doesn’t assume these moves as random reactions by stupid people, it might make more sense. No one is “panicking”; they are all actors following the same script (imo).
The Fed has two meetings between now and the end of the year:
October
27-28
December
8-9
Hopefully cooler heads will hold off until the end of the year to make a change.
According to Zerohedge:
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rate-hike-odds-bond-yields-explode-higher-after-hotter-expected-cpi
“This inflation report is flashing red for the Fed,” according to Olu Sonola, Head of US Economics at Fitch Ratings.
“Energy pushed the headline number higher, as expected, but the real problem is that core inflation remains stuck above 3%. Higher energy costs are beginning to seep into broader services prices, increasing the risk that this inflation burst will persist. A rate hike at the end of the month is now firmly on the table, but December remains the more likely move.”
This is frightening to me. A containership is photographed that will likely sink, but not within the Strait of Hormuz.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/burning-container-ship-sinks-strait-hormuz-irgc-proclaims-5-or-6-vessels-targeted
The attacks are now coming so frequently it is difficult to deep track. One source tallies of recent days, “Twelve vessels were attacked between October 5 and 11, including six on Sunday alone, and on Tuesday a tanker and a container ship were struck by unknown projectiles, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), marking one of the most intense periods of attacks since the war began.” . .
The prominent and outspoken secretary of Iran’s supreme national security council, Mohsen Rezaei, has meanwhile affirmed that the IRGC was striking vessels nightly, and is likely to keep doing so.
“We target five or six of these every night,” he told state TV. “Hormuz is under the control of the Islamic Republic.“
While the US has been touting a successful naval escort mission to get unprecedented numbers (for wartime) of tankers through the strait, Rezaei described that the US is merely using small craft to smuggle Iranian oil on to larger tankers out at sea, and then doing ship-to-ship transfer.
Now BMW has also reported figures, and they are bad/terrible. The Munich-based carmaker BMW’s sales fell by 6.3 percent in the summer.
Overall, it looks better than at Mercedes with minus 7 percent, VW with minus 9 percent, or Porsche with minus 16 percent. But that’s mainly thanks to the success of Mini, which, however, doesn’t deliver the profit margins that a 7 Series BMW does. If you factor out Mini, BMW looks just as bad as Mercedes.
In general, one has to conclude that recently, the high-end segment in particular has collapsed dramatically. So it’s no surprise that Rolls-Royce is reporting a drop of 12 percent.
For Handelsblatt, there are reasons and special effects for almost everything. For me, it’s the decline on a broad front.
Who will probably be proven right in the end?
” BMW’s China business shrinks by almost 25 percentNew electric models were supposed to turn things around. But the crucial Chinese market remains weak, resulting in a loss. How does BMW compare to Mercedes and Volkswagen?”
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autoindustrie-chinageschaeft-von-bmw-schrumpft-um-fast-25-prozent/100261468.html
BMW Group’s Q3 2026 sales reveal a brutal divide
China: -24.8%
Germany: +2.1%
USA: +2.5%
Europe: +2.7%
Global: -6.3%
EV sales in Europe surged 37.5% YoY BMW is growing once more in Europe and the US. But China is more than wiping out those gains .— BMW Group
Stellantis – which I believe is the second or third largest European automaker – has seen its stock price drop by more than 85% to just $4.27 over the past two and a half years.
China is apparently not doing well. This is part of the problem.
“In general, one has to conclude that recently, the high-end segment in particular has collapsed dramatically.”
Mercedes and BMW haven’t been considered high end since the early 2000’s. They gave that up sometime in the 2010’s. You don’t live in the US, but every slob drives a mercedez or BMW these days.
The mechanic who’s looked after my cars (small diesels) since 1991 advises people not to buy a Mercedes or BMW. He says that cars from VW Group (Audi, SEAT, Skoda, VW brands) and Toyota are reasonable 2nd hand buys.
“ Now, as far as Iran in doing land invasions of the rest of this country, no, I I don’t see that at all.
24:03 U one the the logistics involved I Iran has never been an expeditionary military. That’s just not their thing.
24:13 Uh they they they they fought a defensive war when Iraq attacked them
24:19
back in 1980, September of 1980. They didn’t mount massive ground offensive in order to conquer Iraqi territory.
24:30 So I I think I think that’s just some western spend being put out. Uh the the Iranians have a decided advantage technologically with ballistic missiles.
24:41 So they’re not they’re not going to back off of that. They can continue to inflict damage without having to create
24:48 the kind of logistics lines. I mean, good God, you know, invade Bahrain, they’re going to have to mount a major
24:55 amphibious force. I’m sorry. I I I don’t see they that they’ve got the the physical fleet to do that.”?
Iran seems to do enough damage with its drones and missiles that it doesn’t need to do land invasions.
The US Department of Energy (DOE) has awarded more than half of the 40mn bl of crude it offered from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in September as part of the 172mn bl emergency drawdown authorised in March, sources said.
ExxonMobil, Macquarie, Centalion (formerly Gunvor), TotalEnergies’ trading arm ATMI, Trafigura and Energy Transfer Partners were collectively loaned 20mn-25mn bl SPR crude from the latest tranche. ExxonMobil was the largest recipient with around 15mn bl.
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/latest-market-news/2890203-us-awards-up-to-25mn-bl-spr-crude-sources
Checkout the buyers . All except Exxon are traders . This oil will land up on Asia and when they have to return this in 2029 they will just say ” sorry” there is nothing available . Drain USA first , in the meanwhile no news on the 100 million barrels the EU was to release .
I am afraid you are right.
How is it possible to enforce the loan requirements against a trader?
Putin the wolf is at the door!
The plague is back!
Power grid emergency declared!
Man falls off roller coaster!
ArE yOu SCARED YET?
Better not have any kids!!!
(sorry, it’s just too easy) lol
things are not looking good I totally agree with you look at Bali for example they’re running out of petrol lineups of 1.5 KMS to the gas station saw a good YouTube video buy a guy called planet Jonesy which sums up perfectly that Bali is looking extremely precarious,and this is just two weeks before their peak tourist season.
While global yields are surging… China’s are plunging.
China can now borrow ~60% cheaper than the US.
And through Panda bonds, foreign nations and corporations can access China’s cheap yuan funding.
Brazil is preparing its first Panda bond… the largest-ever debut by a foreign sovereign.
Issuers can raise yuan and use it directly to buy Chinese goods and fund operations in China instead of first raising USD.
Every transaction funded directly in yuan reduces the need for dollars at the margin…
And by extension, chips away at marginal demand for USTs.
https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/2110067818343399709/photo/1
The US can’t afford higher rates… Warsh knows that. – In the next 12 months, ~$10T of USTs need to be rolled. – The average coupon is ~3.3%. – The US10y yield is ~5.3%. Rolling that $10T at today’s US10y level would add $200B in annual interest costs, and that’s before you factor in the interest burden on an ongoing $2T annual deficit.
The falling interest rate in China is not a vote of confidence in the Chinese economy. It is a sign the economy is not doing very well. Outsiders won’t want to invest in the country.
The West has had many generations of affluency, and just now we’re relearning what it is to lose the freedom that money and modern ammenities gives us. That’s why, also, it is so hard for most of the population to believe that things will go down: things going down is just a distant memory, a time no one alive today lived in.
But not to the chinese. They managed, in a singular generation, to go from maximum poverty to maximum affluency, and most of the chinese alive remember very well how it is to be poor.
And they’re seeing it happen right before their eyes, something just as extraordinary as their rise, their own downfall.
Since before the war, close to when Covid happened, due to the normal oil problems we all know, we saw many industries but specially commerce closing up in droves there. China is cooking its numbers, and that’s no surprise now, they’ve been doing that for years, but people chose to believe because it was rising so spetacularly.
And there’s no solution or fix. The chinese are seeing what’s happening and they know what’s coming, it’s too close to home gor them, and they’re simply stop spending, they’re hoarding, and their real state bubble bursting left them speechless, vulnerable and dreading with uncertainties.
China is like one of those old MOPAR. Big, expansive, powerful, but also gas hungry. When the 70s crisis came, everybody ditched them.
And yet the West no longer has the capacity, and surely cannot quickly regain it, in the absence of the immense flow of Chinese goods, to maintain its own commerce and infrastructure.
What doesn’t come from China? Bought online or from a store?
In all my purchases over the last two years, only some high-quality hiking socks came from the US, a camping stove from Sweden, a felling axe from Italy, superb hiking boots from France (although possibly made in Morocco) and some very high quality clothing from Britain, and also fine art materials. And some heavy-duty plastic storage boxes were made in England.
Everything else came from Asia, and above all from China. This is very noticeable in most everyday items and clothing.
So China has to stay afloat, somehow or the world grinds to a halt.
Add board games to your list, Xabier. The standard model appears to be crowdfund globally, design in the west and manufacture in China.
I only know because I’m a participant!
FREIGHT FOR RUSSIAN URALS TO INDIA HITS A RECORD: $27–30M PER SUEZMAX VOYAGE FROM THE BLACK SEA. UP FROM $19M IN SEPTEMBER That works out to about $30/bbl or more, according to traders’ figures and calculations. The drivers are higher risk in the Black Sea and a global tanker rally that has pushed shipping costs to records. Most Russian crude leaves from western ports and has to travel the long way to India and China. The higher freight eats into what Russia earns from high oil prices. Source: Reuters
When the end of oil comes, it will happen quickly..
NEXTA on X: ” Bali has suddenly run out of gasoline The island has turned into one massive traffic jam. Many gas stations have closed, while drivers are forced to wait for hours to get into those that remain open. Denpasar, Kuta, Badung and Jembrana have been particularly hard hit. In https://t.co/u1k9yxREiB” / X
We need to start looking at small examples, like this.
Sri Lanka? Haiti?
the UK.
Maybe so
Ireland and Iceland first?
Bali was one of the islands who resisted Holland to the last, and although there were attempts to develop the island for tourism in the 1930s, since it was so far away no serious attempt had been made until 1961, when a volcano forced the unruly natives into ‘designated zones’ and the better parts of the island were seized and developed for tourism and international tourists, mostly from Asia, got richer and found some place which they found interesting.
Fast Eddy lived there, and there were quite a lot of killing there, but since the Indonesians are not a people who leave records, no one really knows how many died.
Bali is just reverting back to its old self , like the rest of third world.
US bureaucrats who never left the East Coast granted independence to peoples who had no business running a modern country,
And that’s the result of their mindless decisions.
the Civilisational Curse of Kulm is starting to work, it seems 😅
It is not really a curse, it is just things reverting back to the natural way.
If Bali remained under Holland , as intended by Queen Wilhelmina (who resigned after Washington forced Holland to give up Dutch East Indies, one of the most stupid decisions ever) it would have looked like this
Curacao, where Holland’s baseball players tend to come from
Charlie Chaplin at Bali , 1930s
Bali now, after 80 years of Javanese rule
I’ve been to Bali twice so far it is a very safe tropical area and the people are only concerned about working because during the tourist season they can make some good money during the tourist seasonthey will sell their services in any shape or form.
when the tourist season is not on they are living on their land raising pigs and raising crops they are just trying to survive like us.
Must have visited there pre covid. It’s quality plummeted significantly after that
Cause and effect, obviously. And I don’t mean COVID. 🙁
The WSJ is reporting:
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-is-fortifying-nuclear-sites-and-rallying-its-people-for-a-return-to-fighting-c4cc3c28
Iran Fortifying Nuclear Sites and Rallying Its People for Return to Fighting
Regime, convinced the U.S. is ready to attack again, sees preparations as deterrent
The efforts by both sides to shore up their fighting capacity underscore how, more than seven months into the war, neither side feels compelled to give up a fight that is largely deadlocked.
Instead, both are trying to break the logjam in their favor. The U.S. has ramped up its economic pressure campaign and is guiding tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with increasing success. [My comment: Really, or is this WSJ view?] . .
Iranian officials are touting their efforts. The country’s airports, seaports and power plants “have prepared for wartime conditions,” installing shelters and backup supplies to continue operating in a crisis, Brig. Gen. Gholamreza Jalali, the official in charge of the country’s contingency plans, told reporters at the end of September.
Hmmmm. Since I live in northeast NC and the Dominion Power company is through PJM, maybe getting a few extra batteries, inverters, charge controllers wasn’t such far out paranoia after all. Time will tell.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/energy-department-orders-pjm-dispatch-units-backup-power-through-mid-october
Our debt based fractional reserve fiat currency system doesn’t create more energy, it only determines which people will be able to afford, and therefore have access to, it when the shortages arrive.
I can’t figure out what the huge problem is. Washington DC temperatures are supposed to rise to 89 degrees on Oct. 14. Is that what is causing the problem? It is not an unusual temperature for the area. It is high for this time of year, however.
This link says:
The emergency order, Order No. 202-26-50, also authorizes PJM to direct backup generation resources ahead of declaring an Energy Emergency Alert 3 or during one. PJM may call on its transmission owners and electric distribution companies to carry out the order. The grid operator serves more than 65 million people across 13 states and the District of Columbia.
PJM filed the application on Oct. 11, forecasting demand “at or around 111,500 MW (or higher)” for Oct. 13. The company said the system would sit within 900 MW of its reserve margin on Oct. 14.
Anticipated generation outages were put at 61,591 MW, with the most acute pressure predicted to be in the BGE, PEPCO, and Dominion zones, which primarily serve Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, and the Washington, D.C. metropolitan area.
Secretary of Energy Chris Wright determined a statutory emergency existed, citing a sudden increase in demand, a shortage of electric energy, or the facilities needed for its generation or transmission. The order lasts from Oct. 13 through Oct. 16, when temperatures are expected to relent.
Most US overhead distribution wire is bare aluminum. A branch that hits it can carry current to the ground and catch fire. Wind can slap two wires together and throw molten aluminum. A broken wire can land live in dry grass. Wildfire costs made up about 27% of what PG&E charged customers in 2024. Utilities fix bare wire by replacing it. PG&E buries it at $3.25M a mile, has buried more than 1,400 miles since 2021, and this month filed a plan to bury about 5,000 more by 2037. Jacketed wire costs about $1M a mile. Kratos Materials, a startup founded by
@UnchartedSherpa, makes a silicone-based coating for existing power lines. Silicone is a chain of silicon and oxygen, the same two elements as glass, with carbon groups attached. When an arc heats it, the carbon burns off and the silicon and oxygen fuse into a glassy layer. In early tests, the coating vitrified. Its target price is $85K a mile. Since 2021, State Grid utilities in China have used robots to spray insulating coatings onto live 10,000-volt lines. No US utility does this yet. Kratos still has to run its branch, wire-slap and broken-end tests. At its target price, coating PG&E’s 25,000 miles of overhead fire-district line would cost about $2B, while burying them costs about $81B.
https://x.com/Gaurab/status/2109473924027486408/photo/1
I did’t realize that most of the distribution wires are bare aluminum. This would explain why fires are such a problem. And why liability claims against utilities are so high. I found this link describing different kinds of such wire, and their uses.
https://hnbfpower.com/bare-aluminum-conductor-for-transmissions/
I can understand why companies would want to spray a coating onto the bare wires. Putting the wires underground is terribly expensive. It isn’t even feasible in some areas.
Where are we going from here? Most people think that as soon as these wars end oil will go back down and we can get on with things the way they were. I think things are fundamentally changed now and we will start to see the break down of the stock market in 2027. I could be wrong 🤷🏻♂️
“if you want to be wrong, then follow the masses.” -Socrates
For humans there’s plenty of ways to be mislead. By the flock, by the leaders, by our own dreams. Most people was born to follow, in 500AC as today.
Then there’s the unhappy few, the skepticals and miscreants, but what do these get with their use of logic and critical thinking? Ostracism and loneliness, i would say, besides the little pride of not being a moron. The greatest obstacle of a Truth-Seeker (R) is that s/he’s pursuing something with almost zero market value. because what made us human was our yearning for comforting dreams and lies, not for truths.
I am afraid you are right. People want a “happy-ever-after story.” They don’t want to know that the economy has always been cyclical. Occasionally, young actuaries ask me how they can make money doing what I am doing, and I tell them that figuring what is really happening doesn’t have much market value.
I don’t think Socrates ever said that. Although it sounds like something he should have said. It’s very good advice.
Here are some of the most famous and influential quotes attributed to Socrates, courtesy of Google AI:
On Wisdom and Knowledge
On Life and Self-Examination
On Virtue and Society
Most of these internet ‘quotes’ are tripe, as of course you know, Tim.
But it helps to attribute a useful ,even maybe a profound, thought to a big philosophical name.
The Hadith lore attributed to Mohammed is much the same: things he never said or would even have thought of. But often very good.
I read the complete works of Plato when I was 18: and then went on to do lots of very foolish things! Now much older but not really much wiser, I have things to laugh at……
I think things will change in 2027. Dr. Pape of the University of Chicago said that Iran is hoping that the Democrats will win big majorities in both houses of congress. If so, they can perhaps pass legislation in 2027 stopping funding for the current conflict. If their majorities are great enough, the legislation will be veto proof. That would stop the war completely.
Gail… Dr. Pape is also warning about violent populism on both the Left and Right…. How are the Democrats going to solve the K shaped economy and the energy crisis?
I suppose they will promise more than they can deliver.
I also expect travel restrictions in the not too distant future (six months?) regardless of who wins. Some excuse will be given, other than shortage.
But how this unwinds is not entirely clear to me. We have big debt bubbles to keep up, and hugely high stock market prices. I need to think this through some more.
“Once again Karl W. Miller has put numbers to a problem that most of the commentariat still treats as a temporary price spike. His latest forward outlook, “The Five-Year Global Energy Crisis,” dated October 3, makes an argument that should alarm every finance ministry from Berlin to Jakarta. The war’s damage to Gulf energy infrastructure is not a disruption that ends when the shooting stops. It is a reconstruction problem measured in years and trillions of dollars, and while it is solved, the world will be short of the fuels that run its economy.“?
https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p/the-five-year-fuel-crisis-why-the
This is a very fine analysis. It looks at a lot of the details. Rebuilding will be a problem, even if a country theoretically has some funds, but not enough. The country will look after food needs first.
And Europe looks as if it has almost enough refineries to produce the diesel it needs, if it has the crude oil that these refineries are built for. But this crude oil is mostly not available. Importing diesel might work, but it cannot be stored as long as crude oil. Biodiesel has a particularly short stable life span. Even regular diesel blended with biodiesel can be stored for only six months.
Head of the winemakers’ association on falling wine consumption: People are going back to three-euro wines, whilst young people are turning to chemical drugs
https://eubrief.sme.sk/ekonomika-a-euro/c/sefka-vinarov-o-klesajucej-spotrebe-vina-ludia-sa-vracaju-k-trojeurovym-vinam-mladi-prechadzaju-na-chemicke-drogy
According to the Maximum Stoning Principle, people in a collapse will watch their precious pennies and switch to cost effective drugs. Beer or vodka would have been a more effective (than wine) way to cope with the rising complexity, but China-made fentanyl is cheaper and more effective.
There are quite a few in the US running into somewhat similar situations, I am afraid.
The WSJ has a major post:
https://www.wsj.com/world/china-economy-gen-z-f9058941
China’s Weakening Economy Is Creating a Lost Generation
Young people were taught hard work guaranteed a bright future. They feel burned out and betrayed as good jobs become harder to get and the milestones of adulthood slip away.
For months, Ma Yongjian didn’t tell his parents where he was.
Halfway through a master’s degree in computer science, the 27-year-old stopped going to class last year. Software engineering used to be a safe career choice, but the rise of artificial intelligence and a wave of layoffs at Chinese tech companies left Ma convinced he wouldn’t be able to land a good job. He no longer saw the point of studying.
It’s all about survival. You realize that you’re just a part of a system that keeps running faster and faster, yet you achieve nothing. So you either disconnect yourself from it or let the system leave you behind.
Gail’s post and drb753 near above reminded me of what happened to Greece.
…
About a complex economy, a bit shaky (aka not direct), 2026 …
…
https://greekreporter.com/2026/06/07/greece-need-move-complex-economy/
…
Greece Has Become a “Café Economy,” LSE-Published Study Finds. Oct 2026.
…
https://greekreporter.com/2026/10/11/greece-cafe-economy-study/
Trump bringing back public execution.
I wonder what Jesus would think of that?
Kulm can probably tell us. I expect that public executions have been the norm in many parts of the world, for a long time. The Bible tells us the Jesus was killed in a public execution.
These executions are cheap. I understand that Saudi Arabia still has them. Iran does not.
Saudi Arabia. North Korea.
It makes people numb to violence and accept whatever the government forces on.
We need to know which country you’re living in, Mr. K. so that we can persuade Trump to nuke it. 😉
More and more I’m thinking, it’s rather about social coherency and about keeping the deplorables in check (more or less). What is more efficient (for the money), than well-scripted, scheduled in advance public execution on a beautiful, sunny October day, for example?
Nobody is going to talk about it, but beside didactic value, well-scripted, scheduled and completed public execution provides enormous entertaining – going way deeper in the animal parts of the brain, then, say, lousy football game (Hello – late Jim Morrison!) or a sporadic/unpredictable subhuman brawl at a ghetto Wal-Mart…
—Trump bringing back public execution— writes I AM THE MOB.
Well this may just be spontaneous heart-felt virulence from Pete Hellseth, who knows. It sure smells like a provocation – in the line of what x-soviet wrote -> to boost internal strife.
——-
Just now, looking up something about executions, couldn’t find it, I see that Trump has cancelled the live stream.
https://www.npr.org/2026/10/15/nx-s1-6001794/fort-hood-execution-hegseth-christian-nationalist
——-
Public spectacles of killing and sadism are a double-edged word, reactions are unpredictable for now in the -West-, in any case cultures vary wildly on the acceptance of State-King-ordered violent displays. A whole other topic.
Klum, Chucky ancestor had a movie made …Munster Go Home…
Great Scott…the Earl of Munster…hope you enjoy
Strange that The Munsters didn’t get sued for ripping off The Addams Family back in the 1960s. Both funny series, though. I loved them as a boy back in the 1960s. Now, which one did you reckon kulamity most resembled? 😉
I am afraid Chucky’s grandma died before movies were invented
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dorothea_Jordan
Also Munster sounds like very Irish (and German – why Munster is in Ireland, I don’t know.)
Here in the UK we are edging closer to blackouts…
On Tuesday, 6 days into the Winter 26-27 season, we NESO issued an Electricity Margin Notice (“EMN”). Despite NESO repeatedly telling the market that EMNs are “routine tools” that do not signify a blackout, the following facts are notable:
…
But the interconnectors alone were not enough. At the same time, NESO was forced to pay high prices in the Balancing Mechanism (“BM”). Several units were bid up at prices approaching £1,000 /MWh against a day-ahead price of £275 /MWh in the peak.
…
Unless ministers address these problems, Britain risks reaching a point where electricity demand cannot reliably be met during periods of cold, still weather. At that stage, the question won’t be how much it costs to keep the lights on, but which consumers will have to be disconnected to prevent the system from failing.
Early winter ENM rings alarm bells – Watt-Logic
I agree; this is indeed a worrying situation. The UK does not have an adequate way of addressing electricity needs in times when wind levels are low, and the sun isn’t shining. It either needs a whole lot of natural gas in storage, and gas turbines to turn this natural gas into electricity, or an incredible amount of battery supply to bridge the gap. Depending upon electricity coming through transmission from France is extremely iffy. It, and the rest of Europe, is likely to be dealing with approximately the same issues that the UK is.
Winter season? It is winter when I can no longer make my breakfast stark naked (apart from boots, my feet are dreadfully sensitive).
This is still early Autumn!
Looks as though other Brits will have to toughen up.
We used to be such a hardy race, back when we painted ourselves blue so other people couldn’t see how cold we were.
I suppose chilblains are coming back into fashion, and rickets won’t be far behind.
This guy is/was living in the UK and is covering the EU breakdown pretty well.
Thanks for posting this. It is indeed strange to think that EU leader should think that the most important thing to do now, with inadequate diesel supply, is to punish Russia–for Ukraine to continue to destroy its refineries. Also, they are concerned that they were not consulted about any peace deal (which may have been fictitious to begin with).
I used to watch him during the Brexit era. He is still stuck there.
He’s a click-bait scare-monger, though: his main aim is to direct people to his how to get rich/keep your wealth’ courses.
Of course, he can make some good points along the way.
I quite like ‘Landeur’, who is a young, ex-Army officer, Englishman who isn’t selling anything.