Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract

Posted on March 4, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

My analysis indicates that our expectation of what goes wrong with inadequate energy supplies is wrong. Strangely enough, it is the finances of governments that start to fail, early on. They add too much debt to support investments that do not pay back well. They add too many programs that they cannot be supported for the long term. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , , | 1,771 Comments

Southeast Asia can perhaps avoid the worst impacts of inadequate oil supply

Posted on February 4, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

Southeast Asia’s warm, wet climate is helpful, as is its supply of coal, particularly in Indonesia. Many of the people in this part of the world are used to living in cramped quarters–three generations in a large one-room home, for example. Abundant forests provide a renewable source of energy. Religious traditions help provide order. Continue reading →

Posted in Planning for the Future | Tagged , | 1,673 Comments

An Energy and the Economy Forecast for 2025

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | 1,716 Comments

The world economy needs to simplify

Posted on December 4, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed.

Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Food issues, News Related Post | Tagged , , , | 1,651 Comments

Nuclear electricity generation has hidden problems; don’t expect advanced modular units to solve them.

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

It is easy to get the impression that proposed new modular nuclear generating units will solve the problems of nuclear generation. Perhaps they will allow more nuclear electricity to be generated at a low cost and with much less of … Continue reading →

Posted in Alternatives to Oil | Tagged | 1,824 Comments