Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Economic contraction, coming right up

Posted on May 27, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

In this post, I will try to describe the physics-based limits that the economy is facing, related to diminishing returns of many kinds. The problem we are facing has sometimes been called “limits to growth,” or “overshoot and collapse.” Such changes tend to lead to a loss of “complexity.” Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post | Tagged , , , | 1,496 Comments

Brace for rapid changes in the economy; the world economy is reaching Limits to Growth

Posted on April 24, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The world economy is at a major turning point, which is why we should brace for rapid changes in the economy. The world is moving from having enough goods and services to go around, to not having enough to go around. The dynamics of the economy are very different with not enough to go around. The hoped-for solution of higher prices doesn’t fix the situation; after a point, adding more buying-power mostly produces inflation. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 1,643 Comments

Advanced Economies Are Being Pushed Toward Financial Collapse

Posted on March 31, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

The US and many other Advanced Economies are likely heading into a worse and longer lasting financial crisis than the 2008 crisis, starting as soon as this summer. The problem will likely not start out as a full financial collapse. Instead, various leveraged borrowers will encounter difficulties. Gradually, the finances and very structures of many government organizations are likely to be threatened. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post, peak oil | Tagged , , , , | 1,987 Comments

Energy limits are forcing the economy to contract

Posted on March 4, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

My analysis indicates that our expectation of what goes wrong with inadequate energy supplies is wrong. Strangely enough, it is the finances of governments that start to fail, early on. They add too much debt to support investments that do not pay back well. They add too many programs that they cannot be supported for the long term. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, News Related Post | Tagged , , , | 1,771 Comments

Southeast Asia can perhaps avoid the worst impacts of inadequate oil supply

Posted on February 4, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

Southeast Asia’s warm, wet climate is helpful, as is its supply of coal, particularly in Indonesia. Many of the people in this part of the world are used to living in cramped quarters–three generations in a large one-room home, for example. Abundant forests provide a renewable source of energy. Religious traditions help provide order. Continue reading →

Posted in Planning for the Future | Tagged , | 1,673 Comments