Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

An Energy and the Economy Forecast for 2025

Posted on January 5, 2025 by Gail Tverberg

In this post, I share a few thoughts on what might lie ahead for us in 2025, in the light of the hidden inadequate world energy supply. I am predicting major turbulence, but not that things fall apart completely. Stock markets will tend to do poorly; interest rates will remain high; oil and other energy prices will stay around current levels, or fall. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | 1,716 Comments

The world economy needs to simplify

Posted on December 4, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

Economic growth and added complexity sound like they would be good, but at some point, the combination gets to be too much–simplification is needed.

Too much of the world’s income starts going to non-working individuals and to high-earning workers in privileged fields. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Food issues, News Related Post | Tagged , , , | 1,651 Comments

Nuclear electricity generation has hidden problems; don’t expect advanced modular units to solve them.

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

It is easy to get the impression that proposed new modular nuclear generating units will solve the problems of nuclear generation. Perhaps they will allow more nuclear electricity to be generated at a low cost and with much less of … Continue reading →

Posted in Alternatives to Oil | Tagged | 1,824 Comments

Oil shortages lead to hidden conflicts–even war

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

Governments may want to reduce long-term interest rates, but they cannot do so without having the market for these loans disappear. In this part of the economic cycle, it appears that high interest rates, indirectly due to inadequate inexpensive-to-extract crude oil supplies, act as a brake on the economy instead of high oil prices. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , | 1,561 Comments

Crude oil extraction may be well past peak

Posted on September 11, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

The situation is far more complex than the models of economists make it seem. World crude oil supply seems to be past peak now; it may be headed down significantly in the next few years. Central banks have been working hard to keep oil prices within an acceptable range for both producers and consumers, but this is becoming increasingly impossible. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , | 1,883 Comments