Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit oil extraction falls apart, and oil prices fall further. This is the way the “end” is reached, not through high prices.
I recently tried to explain how the energy-economy system works, including the strange way prices fall, rather than rise, as we reach limits, at a recent workshop in Brussels called “New Narratives of Energy and Sustainability.” The talk was part of an “Inspirational Workshop Series” sponsored by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Figure 1. Empty Schuman room of the Berlaymont European Commission building, shortly after we arrived. Photo shows Mario Giampietro and Vaclav Smil, who were the other speakers at the Inspirational Workshop. Attendees started arriving a few minutes later.
My talk was titled, “Elephants in the Room Regarding Energy and the Economy.” (PDF) In this post, I show my slides and give a bit of commentary.
Slide 2
The question, of course, is how this growth comes to an end.
Slide 3
I have been aided in my approach by the internet and by the insights of many commenters to my blog posts.
Slide 4
We all recognize that our way of visualizing distances must change, when we are dealing with a finite world.
Slide 5
I should note that not all economists have missed the fact that the pricing situation changes, as limits are reached. Aude Illig and Ian Schindler have recently published a paper that concludes, “We find that price feedback cycles which lead to increased production during the growth phase of oil extraction go into reverse in the contraction phase of oil extraction, speeding decline.”
Slide 6
The comments shown in red on Slide 6 reflect a variety of discussions over the last several years. Oil prices in the $50 per barrel range are way too low for producers. They may be high enough to get “oil out of the ground,” but they are not high enough to encourage necessary reinvestment, and they are not high enough to provide the tax revenue that oil exporters depend on.
Slide 7
Most people don’t stop to think about the symmetric nature of the problem. They also don’t realize that the adverse impacts of low oil prices don’t necessarily appear immediately. They can temporarily be hidden by more debt.
Slide 8
There would be no problem if wages were to rise as oil prices rise. Or if there were an easily substitutable source of cheap energy. The problem becomes an affordability problem.
Slide 9
The economists’ choice of the word “demand” is confusing. A person cannot simply demand to buy a car, or demand to go on a vacation trip. The person needs some way to pay for these things.
Slide 10
If researchers don’t examine the situation closely, they miss the nuances.
Slide 11
Slide 12
Many people think that the increasing use of tools can save us, because of the possibility of increased productivity.
Slide 13
Using more tools leads to the need for an increasing amount of debt.
Slide 14
Read this chart from left to right. If we combine increasing quantities of resources, workers, and tools, the output is a growing quantity of goods and services.
Slide 15
Read this chart from right to left. How do we divide up the goods and services produced, among those who produced the products? If we can only use previously produced goods to pay workers and other contributors to the system, we will never have enough. But with the benefit of debt, we can promise some participants “future goods and services,” and thus have enough goods and services to pay everyone.
Slide 16
If we decrease the amount of debt, we have a big problem. Instead of the debt adding to the amount of goods and services produced, the shrinkage acts to decrease the amount of goods and services available for distribution as pay. This is why moving from deficit spending to a balanced budget, or a budget that reduces debt, is so painful.
Slide 17
When I say (resources/population), I mean resources per capita. Falling resources per capita makes it harder to earn an adequate living. Think of farmers trying to subsist on ever-smaller farms. It would become increasingly difficult for them to earn a living, unless there were to be a big improvement in technology.
Or think of a miner who is extracting ore that is gradually dropping from 5% metal, to 2% metal, to 1% metal content, and so on, because the best quality ore is extracted first. The miner needs to work an increasing number of hours to produce the ore needed for 100 kilograms of the metal. The economy is becoming in some sense “worse off,” because the worker is becoming “inefficient” through no fault of his own. The resources needed to provide benefits simply are less available, due to diminishing returns. This problem is sometimes reported as “falling productivity per worker.”
Falling productivity per worker tends to lower wages. And lower wages put downward pressure on commodity prices, because of affordability problems.
Slide 18
The problems that prior civilizations reached before collapse sound in many ways like the problems we are seeing today. We are seeing increased specialization, and falling relative wages of non-elite workers.
Slide 19
We seem to have already gone through a long period of stagflation since the 1970s. The symptoms we are seeing today look as if we are approaching a steep downslope. If we are approaching a crisis stage, it may be much shorter than the 20 to 50 years observed historically. Earlier civilizations (from which these timeframes were observed), did not have electricity or the extensive international trade system we have today.
Slide 20
The period since 1998 seems especially flat for wages for US wage earners, in inflation-adjusted terms. This is the period since energy prices started rising, and since globalization started playing a greater role.
Slide 21
This is a list I made, showing that what looks to be beneficial–adding tools and technology–eventually leads to our downfall. The big problem that occurs is that non-elite workers become too poor to afford the output of the economy. Adding robots to replace workers looks efficient, but leaves many unemployed. Unemployment is even worse than low pay.
Slide 22
We can think of the economy as being a self-organized network of businesses, consumers, and governments. New products are gradually added, and ones that are no longer needed are eliminated. Government regulations change in response to changing business conditions. Debt is especially important for economic growth, because it makes goods affordable for customers, and it enables the use of “tools.” Prices are created almost magically by this networked system, through the interaction between supply and demand (reflecting affordability, among other things).
Slide 23
It is only in recent years that physicists have become increasingly aware of the fact that many types of structures form in the presence of flows of energy. We have known for a long time that plants and animals can grow when conditions are right. The networked economy illustrated on Slide 22 is one of the types of things that can grow and flourish in the presence of energy flows.
Slide 24
This is my view of how an economy, as a dissipative structure, works. “Tools and technology” are at the center. If a person doesn’t think too much about the issues involved, it is easy to assume that tools and technology will allow the economy to grow forever.
There is a potential for problems, both with respect to inputs and waste outputs. Early modelers missed many of these “issues.” M. King Hubbert created a model in which the quantity of energy supply and technology are the only issues of importance. He thus missed the impact of the Waste Output problems at the right. The Waste Outputs lead to falling prices as limited supply nears, and thus lead to a much steeper drop in production than Hubbert’s symmetric model would suggest.
Slide 25
Peak oilers recognized one important point: our use of oil products would at some point have to come to an end. But they did not understand how complex the situation is. Low prices, rather than high, would be the problem. We would see gluts rather than shortages, as we approach limits. Much of the oil that seems to be technologically extractable will really be left in the ground, because of low prices and other problems.
Slide 26
Here, I am getting back to the topic I was originally asked to talk about. What else, besides low energy prices and too much debt, are likely to be problems as we reach limits?
Slide 27
The easy way of modeling the use of wind turbines and solar turbines is to assume that the electricity produced by these devices is equivalent to electricity produced by fossil fuels, or by hydroelectric. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
Slide 28
Trying to integrate solar panels into an electric grid adds a whole new level of complexity to the electrical system. I have only illustrated some of the issues that arise in Slide 28.
The fact that the price system doesn’t work for any fuel is a major impediment to adding more than a very small percentage of intermittent renewables to the electric grid. Intermittent renewables can only be used on the electric grid if they have a 24/7/365 backup supply that can be ramped up and down as needed. Unfortunately, the pricing system does not provide nearly high enough rates for this service. We are now seeing how this works out in practice. South Australia lost its last two coal-fired electricity power plants due to inadequate wholesale electricity prices when it added wind and solar. Now it is experiencing problems with both high electricity prices and too-frequent outages.
Another problem is that new [long distance] transmission makes buying from neighbors optimal, over at the left of Slide 28. This is a new version of the tragedy of the commons. Once long distance lines are available, and a neighbor has a fairly inexpensive supply of electricity, the temptation is to simply buy the neighbor’s electricity, rather than build local electricity generating capacity. The greater demand, without additional supply, then raises electricity prices for all, including the neighbor who originally had the less expensive electricity generation.
Slide 29
It is easy to assume that EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) or some other popular metric tells us something useful about the cost of integrating intermittent renewables into the electric grid, but this really isn’t the case.
Slide 30
We are now beginning to see what happens in “real life,” as intermittent renewables are added. For example, we can now see the problems South Australia is having with high electricity prices and too many outages as well as the high electricity prices in Germany and Denmark (Slide 29).
Slide 31
Wind and solar are not very helpful as stand-alone devices. Yet this is the way they are modeled. Some researchers have included installation costs, but this still misses the many problems that these devices cause for the electrical system, especially as the share of electricity production by these devices rises.
Slide 33
A networked system works differently than a system that is “user controlled.” It builds itself, and it can collapse, if conditions aren’t right. I have shown the economy as hollow, because there is no way of going backward.
Slide 34
Many people miss the point that the economy must keep growing. In fact, I pointed this out in Slide 2 and gave an additional reason why it must keep growing on Slide 16. As the economy grows, we tend to need more energy. Growing efficiency can only slightly offset this. Thus, as a practical matter, energy per capita needs to stay at least level for an economy to grow.
Slide 35
If energy prices rise, this will tend to squeeze out discretionary spending on other goods and services. If we cannot obtain energy products sufficiently cheaply, the system of economic growth will stop.
Slide 36
The fact that energy prices can, and do, fall below the cost of production is something that has been missed by many modelers. Prices can go down, even when the cost of production plus taxes needed by governments rises!
Slide 37
Wind and solar are part of the category at the top called “renewables.” This category also includes energy from wood and from geothermal. Many people do not realize how small this category is. Hydroelectric is also considered a renewable, but it is not growing in supply in the United States or Europe.
Slide 38
It takes energy to have an intergovernmental organization, such as the European Union. In fact, it takes energy to operate any kind of government. When there is not enough surplus energy to go around, citizens decide that the benefits of belonging to such organizations are less than the costs involved. That is the reason for the Brexit vote, and the reason the question is coming up elsewhere.
Slide 39
The amount of taxes oil-producing countries can collect depends on how high the price of oil is. If the price isn’t high enough, oil-exporting countries generally have to cut back their budgets. Even Saudi Arabia is having difficulty with low oil prices. It has needed to borrow in order to maintain its programs.
Slide 40
Oil prices have been too low for producers since at least mid-2014. It is possible to hide a problem with low prices with increasing debt for a few years, but not indefinitely. The longer the low-price scenario continues, the more likely a collapse in production is. Also, the tendency of international organizations of government to collapse (Slide 38) takes a few years to manifest itself, as does the tendency for civil unrest within oil exporters (Slide 39).
Slide 41
Slide 42
It is easy to miss the point that modeling a piece of the system doesn’t necessarily tell a person very much about the system as a whole.
Slide 43
Once an incorrect understanding of our energy problem becomes firmly entrenched, it becomes very difficult for leaders to understand the real problem.
After a few short days of respite – suggested by some as indicative that the worst is over – China commodities are crashing again tonight with Dalian Iron ore snapping below 460 to its lowest since before Trump’s election…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-10/china-iron-ore-prices-crash-through-key-support-6-month-lows
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/05/10/20170510_ironore1_0.jpg
Noble is back…
Noble Group’s Shares Plunge to 14-Year Low After Flagging Losses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/noble-group-s-shares-plunge-to-14-year-low-after-flagging-losses
See the 5yr trend here https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOM:IND
If prices drop to the early 2016 levels for a prolonged period…. then we have a problem.
More Ghost Towns please. More warehouses filled with commodities that are not needed please
Haha as a doomer (realist actually) this speech did catch my attention when I watched it 2 weeks ago..kind of life imitating art (not all obviously but parts of it), however in our case there won’t be any reboot…
Gosh, I wish the corporate meetings I attended had been as dramatic as that. I might have stayed awake…
The only trouble with an engineered virus to kill off all humans, is once the dust settles and the chosen one’s reemerge the virus won’t necessarily be gone, but could be dormant waiting for more hosts.
I guess what I am saying is don’t assume that oil producers need to make a profit in order to keep going. Like Tesla they are tapping into a vein of funding that looks beyond the balance sheet and towards other objectives; shale oil production puts pressure on other producers, the Tesla circus well….. this provides a distraction for all the useless eaters coming out with their ‘techie tickets’.
In the larger picture shale isn’t a big thing if I understand it right. I really don’t buy the ‘hurting others’ story. I think we’re doing shale to prevent collapse, which would arguably have come sooner if we didn’t go into shale and tar sands.
US drillers are expected to boost shale production by 123,000 barrels per day to 5.19 million barrels per day in May, representing the biggest surge in output since February 2015 and the highest production level since November 2015, according to the Energy Information
http://www.smartbrief.com/s/2017/04/eia-us-shale-production-post-biggest-increase-2-years-may
BAU would starve if Shale put other production out of business
It really is irritating to read how shale and conventional are at each others throats… that is just plain bullshit.
People keep presuming Shale oil production is losing money, when in fact it is very unlikely they would not continue for so long doing something that could not pay for itself. Apparently at close to $50 a barrel is enough monetary incentive to press on.
Who is to say that the continuation of the US Shale industry isn’t a strategic move to try and do a repeat of crashing the USSR etc. This time the target is Russia and so the entire US corporate-banking-military-industrial-govt colossus is trying to arm wrestle Putin into submission.
Just say no to wind turbines:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jqT3nC9RZIo/TuoJPDPJGmI/AAAAAAAACgA/hLSYsv8BU2c/s200/throw-money-ladder-wind.jpg
What would the downward trajectory look like for the US military planet wide imperial expansion plans. With collapse happening, all of those men and women will be coming home to fewer jobs. Or would our government subsidize the energy requirements of the US military. How long would this last. What would it look like over the next 20 years, if we don’t blow ourselves up first. Any thoughts?
Well, I’ve gone on record to say that I believe the U.S. Military will get significantly larger. Patriotism will be a huge deal. We can then go after resource rich countries on the periphery with the full support of the U.S. Population. Not very many people agree with me. They feel like collapse eliminates this possibility but I’m not so sure. We shall see.
I think indeed there will be a kind of “swan song”.
Historically, there always is; it’s invariably brief, gives some people delusive hope and then…….no signal. 🙂 –
Renewable energy ‘simply WON’T WORK’: Top Google engineers
Windmills, solar, tidal – all a ‘false hope’, say Stanford PhDs
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewable
s_engineers/
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
That’s all old new for use OFW’s. Google’s “renewables” conclusions accurate.
I think Cliffhanger, by the looks of his posts (plus the unknown handle which popped up here recently) ranging anywhere from a few years ago to recently is a NOOB…however he does seem to be picking up on the fact that there is no solution to this predicament..I think…
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-HYuyYAPezZY/WRFWMoyVZZI/AAAAAAAAtxw/a4owY9HS4_cmfvMGMk_Ivy6DEbxdObwhQCLcB/s640/Trump-and-Louis-XIV.jpg
Obama Takes Private Jet, 14-Car Convoy To His $3.2MM Climate Change Speech
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-10/obama-takes-private-jet-14-car-envoy-his-32mm-climate-change-speech
Obama understands that there are no solutions other than to:
Burn More Coal NOW!
Wow! I am traveling right now. This will probably cut back on my level of commenting for a while.
Have safe travels, Gail. We will miss your insightful replies. Look forward to your write-up on your trip…you deserve some R&R. Fast Eddy will hold the fort down till your return👌
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/shale-drillers-challenging-opec-with-84-billion-spending-spree
Translation: Conventional oil reserves are a decade past peak and continuing to plunge — we desperately need other options — shale is the best of a lot of very expensive options (including tar sands and deep sea) —- so we are doubling and tripling down on shale to ensure overall oil supply remains high.
This is total desperation now
I agree!
How long can they keep it going? I suppose as long as there’s free money to be had, there’s probably a ton of frackle that can still be fracked…
The Beginning Of The End For The Bakken Shale Play
https://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberman/2017/03/01/the-beginning-of-the-end-for-the-bakken-shale-play/#732b00231487
The thing is…
The sweet spots are fracked first…. massive cash is pouring in http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-shale-funders-analysis-idUSKBN17J0BK which will result in what’s left being depleted even faster…
So no… this is not going to last very long at all….
The thing is oil producers need a profit as well. And, they need more profits than last year to show the investors that they are growing. Energy will be available only as long as it is profitable to extract. Things are really getting squeezed on all sides with respect to energy extraction. I think the global economy cannot afford oil prices much over 50 and if oil producers can’t show profits and year over year growth in profits at 50 then its just a waiting game to see which producers go bankrupt first, the US, Russia or Saudi Arabia. If it is the Saudi’s then, that country will be in massive chaos as there is nothing else for them to export and their populations and resource consumption has sky rocketed over the last 40 years. And, who would take over Saudi production if it isn’t profitable? Your looking at the potential of 10Mbd of oil being removed from the economy. What would happen then is anybody’s guess.
In many (most) cases, energy is already not profitable to extract… but it continues to get extracted. Perhaps whoever is funding these companies is smart enough to realize what will happen if they don’t keep funding them…
If Gates, Buffett, Bezos, Zuckerberg and co., as well as governments and central banks decided to collaborate to help continue energy extraction no matter what the cost, how long could the charade continue?
I assume something like this is already happening… but to what extent…?
If this was the plan, could they communicate it to the sheeple without causing everyone to go ape-shit?
Would this buy us another decade or two (or more)?
If we look at Exxon …. who in their right mind would be loaning billions to this dying beast?
They are not replacing reserves — their margins are being crushed …. and there is no way this gets reversed…. even Gl.enn the retard would not loan money to Exxon….
So where are these billions coming from that are keeping the company afloat?
They are raising the cash — https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-29/exxon-said-to-plan-bond-offering-after-rating-downgrade-threat — but who is making the loans?
The Fed?
https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
For example, in 1997, Exxon spent $11.8 billion on capital expenditures while producing 2.5 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil. However, their capital expenditures nearly tripled to $34 billion in 2012 as total liquid production fell to 2.2 mbd. Basically, Exxon spent three times more money in 2012 to produce 300,000 barrels per day less than it did in 1997.
When the company realized towards the end of 2013 that the market would not afford to pay $120 a barrel (the cost for new oil projects), Exxon started cutting back on exploration and capital expenditures. Even though total liquid production increased to 2.34 mbd in 2015, capital expenditures declined to $26.5 billion.
Unfortunately, the situation continued to deteriorate in 2016. According to Exxon’s Q3 report, capital expenditures in the first nine months of the year declined another 40% compared to the same period in 2015. Without increased capex spending, it is going to be quite difficult for the company to sustain production and to remain profitable.
So, when we consider that Exxon had to triple its capex spending to maintain production as well as increase dividend payouts to keep shareholders happy, the falling oil price is totally gutting the company from within.
As we can see, Exxon’s long-term debt has exploded from $6.9 billion in 2013 to $29.5 billion in the first half of 2016. Basically, the company is now borrowing money to repurchase shares or pay dividends. This is not a viable long-term business model.
https://dj0s31cxqi9ot.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/ExxonMobil-Long-Term-Debt-2006-2016.png?x65756
I agree that money can be created out of thin air to bail out banks and car companies. But my gut instinct is telling me that this won’t work for bailing out energy producers. Why? Because energy gives money value. That is all I need to know. And it is why I think that IF major energy producers (like Exxon, Total, BP etc) start to go bankrupt that things will fall apart very very quickly. I truly believe that the financial system and energy production go hand in hand and will fail nearly simultaneously. If the financial system collapses the same thing will occur…all the energy stays in the ground…forever!
But doesn’t (real) energy companies pay large taxes, or at least citizens do when buying the energy.
Bailing out an energy company could be considered retroactively lowered taxes.
(I am not suggesting this is sustainable, just a kick of the can.)
There are a lot of interconnected systems between money and energy. But, if energy is indeed what gives money value then money cannot bail out the energy sector. Surely there is some momentum in the system but how much I am not sure. I think something big will break down within of few months of an energy producer the size of Exxon going bankrupt and needinga bail out.
Every system is being stressed simultaneously. The Saudis are dealing with higher water cut and lower crude prices and falling EROEI. The refiners at suffering from poor quality feed stock. The end consumer is unproductive because of unemployment and low wages. So the past benefits of leveraged energy are falling. It seems that the entire system is in a horrendous feedback cycle already. All the printing that can be done has been and growth is falling. The obvious conclusion is not much road left.
Exactly JT, CBs will be unable to step in next time (in the very near future)…and that will be it…The End…
The CBs without a doubt have ‘fire-fighters’ on duty 24/7…. these people would be tasked with watching for threats to BAU — and acting swiftly to hose down the threats with ‘whatever it takes’
Whether the threat involves a violent uprising that threatens global stability… a cratering TBTF corporation … a commodity price crash …. you name it – they are watching for it — and like sailors scurrying to fill another hole in a sinking ship they will act…
At some point something will happen – that they cannot fix.
And the end will arrive
http://www.ccc-training.com/uploads/9/6/2/1/9621148/7844796_orig.jpg
We just need to drill deeper to get to the good stuff!
http://2oqz471sa19h3vbwa53m33yj.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/worlds-deepest-oil-well2.jpg
Now do remember to be positive, like Prophet Musk (may his shadow never grow less!) : depth doesn’t matter, because, you know, like ‘the deepest mines are way deeper than the tallest buildings’, right?
It’s all about The Vision. Not doomer negativity or crude things like cost and resources.
The single…and only thing that matters is….how much oil is left in the Saudi Ghawar field.
When that goes, so does the current oil economy.
IMHO that is the key indicator for the planet. 🙂
I agree if we lose Saudi production for whatever reason, it will take down the whole system…
I agree. Unfortunately, I think Saudi Arabia is the big producer most likely to fail first.
saudi has to consume itself to keep their unemployable young men doing nothing
already the system is failing, they know what will happen when it collapses altogether….saudi will burn
Read Mathew Simmons, Twilight in the desert.
The book documents the state of the Saudi oil fields by compiling data from individual wells. They are struggling to maintain current production levels. The Saudis are injecting water into the wells in ever increasing amounts. However, the proportion of oil to water that is extracted is declining. Diminishing returns on energy invested.
I believe the recent OPEC-Russian agreement to cut back on oil production, which is being sold as an attempt to bring down over supply and therefore increase oil prices. Is a cover for the Saudi inability to maintain production. In other words, they couldn’t produce more oil if they wanted to. At the same time they are trying to convince the world to invest in there oil reserves based on unrealistic projections of recoverable reserves. Is it just me, or do you think they are trying to sell now before the world becomes aware of the painful truth the Saudi Arabia is entering terminal decline of oil production?
There is NO WAY they would take Aramco public if it was not simply for the fact that they see the end of the line is nearing and they want to monetize what’s left while they still can…little do they know that those digibits they will get from the IPO are worthless without an energy economy to back it up…they cannot save their economy out of FFs by building fancy skyscrapers..
If the oil price were high enough, Saudi Arabia has some very heavy oil that it could extract. In fact, a lot of places do, including Venezuela, Canada, China, and the USA.
The oil extraction limit is really a price limit. It can’t go high enough for everyone to get their high-priced oil out.
I agree Gail, when I said what is left, I did not mean all of it..the Financial system won’t hold till then…we will disappear way before we empty the world of it’s oil…
Well let’s see. The Forties Oil Feild the largest ever discovered in North Sea was 1970. UK joined EU 1973 feild started production 1975. UK peaked around 1999 and has now left EU.
Nothing to see here boys just smile and wave.
Looks like Venezuela is learning that crude isn’t a source of energy. People don’t buy crude they by energy. Refiners buy crude and produce a product that can be used to produce energy. As we slip deeper into past peak oil the refinery inputs will continue to decline in quality and eat away at efficiency. Has anyone noticed who bought US crude after the ban was lifted? Canada that’s who. Why? The shale oil production is so light it’s used as thinner for Canada’s heavy sand oil. Venezuela has the same problem look at there imports. They need large amounts of naphtha to thin there tar.
Now let me see if I take two worthless products mix them together do I suddenly get a lite sweet quality crude to sell to the refineries?
Hm what do you think?
The problem that is happening is refinery efficiency is falling from 1.08 barrels to 1.68 barrels per Finished product barrels from 2006-2016.
So you go to BP to cross check the numbers and all you see is through put. Refiners are consuming record amounts of crude while imports of finished product are at record levels. But consumption is nearly flat.
This explains the tumble in crude prices. If I’m a refiner and the quality of my crude is collapsing I can’t pay more then I receive in finished product barrels so I cut my offer to maintain my $8-12 per barrel margin. If the crude producers don’t like then I import finished product and resell it on margin.
The oil producers are stranded they have no choice their product is worthless without a refiner. As the quality of their product declines so will their price.
Pretty simple math really the only affordability issue is on the other side. At what price does finished product like gasoline or diesel produce productivity gains? This is related to overall economic activity. Maybe the right question is how long can I drive around in an empty truck? Think about it.
Maybe the right question is how long can I drive around in an empty truck?
JT, reminds me when I was a child watching this Texaco commercial with cheapskate
Jack Benny
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=KDHIGKjn4o8
Suppose we all will adopt his behavior in the not too distant future…a lot like my Grandfather who saved EVERTHING and no waste ….from the Old Country from the rural outback!
Wasn’t thinking empty tank but that’s a good one
Gail i respect your knowledge about the oil industry,however your comment regarding Brexit is so totally wrong….infact i begs a question; if you can get Brexit so wrong how much more of your analysis is suspect???
What do you think I said about Brexit that is so totally wrong?
It’s a nonsense comment, Gail.
Gail for forgive me I’m British, I’ve been involved with the Brexit movement for over a decade, I’ve never,ever seen what you have written being put forward as a reason for leaving the EU…..never, so please show me how you arrived at this conclusion.
The UK voted for a number of reasons ,energy was not one of them.
ultimately energy—or the shortage of it, has to be the reason for leaving the EU—only very few recognise that.
the EU was founded as a common market for iron and coal in the 50s, basically to stop the European powers fighting over it.
in the intervening 50 years, energy remained relatively cheap, so everyone remained relatively prosperous.
Most people had jobs, and the EU expanded as everyone wanted to get on the EU bandwagon.
the thinking was that prosperity = infinity. It was supposed to last forever.
Unfortunately energy didnt stay cheap, it started getting expensive, too expensive for the average worker to use on the excesses of life. But those excesses were what kept the economy humming. (buying and selling stuff to each other that we didn’t need)
When fuel was cheap, it was easy. When fuel got expensive, everyone found themselves having to run faster and faster just to stand still—which is why average wages have remained flat for the last 30 years.
The unthinking masses know something is wrong, and think this is the fault of the EU system, and if we get our country back, things will be as they were 30 years ago. A variety of reasons were offered and believed–the only relevant one is the cost of supportive energy.
They listened to political rant…just as the Americans have listened to rants saying the same thing.
The USA is in the same economic vice as everyone else:
Oil is now too expensive to burn to provide employment, so instead everybody borrows money to pay wages—which sums up the current function of the global industrial economy.
If you think this can go on forever, then your head hole in the sand will be yours to keep—it’s up to you to decide if you want to stay there.
Wow, that is an odd comment. Gail’s central argument is that infinite growth in a finite world is not possible. I don’t find that the least bit suspect. Diminishing returns goes hand in hand with that argument as well. These and the fallacy of perpetual motion are all scientific facts.
Yep Greg, that is one of the stupidest extrapolations ever (even the premise is wrong even before extrapolating)..is it me or is OFW attracting clueless commenters lately?
no more than Americans making silly comments about Brexit,obviously something the auther knows little about,like i said i have every respect for the authors knowledge of the oil industry however on Brexit she is totally wrong and out of touch with the political situation in the UK.
Why don’t you explain to us then why it happened (actually don’t bother, I will go with Norman Pagett’s explanation, who is also British by the way, and his analysis is similar to Gail’s)…but you did not stop there, then you went all ad hominem on Gail by saying if she has that wrong, then the rest of her thesis is suspect..now that’s weak..
i must admit i have never heard of mr pagett, although a quick search reveals he is some kind of end of the world believer….pray tell what exactly is his “theory” of brexit
I’ve set out my Brexit comment in the post above, which I think clarifies things. It isn’t a theory–it just presents facts as they stand right now. Theories are based on how you interpret those facts–they are exclusively your own.
I’m not and end of the world believer—the world will get along just fine without us. In global terms, humanity is just a parasitic fever—global warming might be called the earthsneeze intended to get rid of us.
My (and numerous others) logical conclusion has been reached by figuring out that pre-oil the world supported 1bn people, in the 160 years post oil we now have 7.5bn people. Of whom at least 1bn are at the point of starvation, while another 2bn at least are below the subsistence poverty line, with no real food security. (the critical survival factor)
The conclusion that oil put 6 bn extra people here seems beyond question. And that without oil, those 6bn don’t have a future
I’m the first to admit I could be wrong–but so far I haven’t found any solution to the problem that isn’t messy—just liberal helpings of wish politics, wish economics and wish science.—You can read those up for yourself—“we must do this—they must do that” etc etc—with no idea of how anything might actually get done
This expands things a bit more.
https://extranewsfeed.com/no-more-4d2f3658f51c
‘end of the world’…. I assume you are not
Can you present your vision of the future… let’s say the next 10 years… what does that look like?
What is your theory?
It’s all about surplus energy..ever since we moved away from hunting and gathering, societies primary reason of being was surplus energy..as the surplus energy that underpins our Industrial societies keeps diminishing, more and more people are getting kicked off the gravy train of Industrial Civilization and denied the perks provided by IC..that’s the case everywhere, including the UK..when this happens people become more tribal and have to find reasons as to why they have been left behind, in this case it was the EU and all that it brings with it (the money they send to Brussels, the immigrants coming in because of Shengen, etc..)…when surplus energy is growing and the economy is growing, you pay less attention to these things because you are doing well..that is not the case anymore and that is why populism is on the rise in many parts of the world…
i have no problem with what you’re saying,but this wasn’t what drove the Brexit outcome.
I guarantee you diminishing returns is behind the British voting to exit the EU…even though people don’t realize it. If there was plenty of cheap energy available in the world economy and in Europe and the North Sea oil fields were thriving, there would be prosperity throughout Europe and no need for a British exit.
zackly
collect your prize on the way out
…..i dont think so
actually there is plenty of prosperity in europe, what people dont like is the loss of sovereignty, the single market places demands on member states which many find intolerable, it makes absolutely no difference how much cheap energy we have if some else tells you how to use it!.
what we are talking about is a loss of control of your economy, social policy, environmental policy, borders, immigration,etc etc, oh,and this was all pointed out forty years ago.
thats as maybe, but its not why people voted to leave
The big reason many voted for Brexit is because of continued mass immigration.
The UK Being a member of the EU can no longer prevent hundreds of thousands of East Europeans from entering the country. It is putting immense strain on public services, it’s driving house prices up and holding wages down.
There has long been a lot of dissatisfaction with the EU in the UK with questions of sovereignty high on the agenda but it only really began affecting everyday people when hundreds of thousands of Poles and Slovaks began turning up.
Basically the slow but unrelenting deepening of the integration of the UK into the EU eventually became too much to bear.
Dissatisfaction has been steadily growing for decades as the process progressed. Margaret Thatcher was railing against the EU and demanding and getting rebates decades ago.
“Continued mass immigration”…….how childishly simplistic. That’s like interpreting a car crashed, because it swerved to the wrong side of the road and hit head on…….but what must be asked, is why did it swerve?
I have to admit that I do take an obscene (?) bit of pleasure seeing London overrun with hordes of ‘those people’
I refer to it as ‘Empire Karma’
Of course the chosen ones in London are not being kicked in the teeth or slammed with a rifle butt if they dare to speak out against this INJUSTICE!
But still… they are getting a taste of what being overrun feels like.
Imagine if one were to go to a pub in England and make the above statements… one would need to be ready to fight….
Which again demonstrates who stupid people are.
MOREons rule.
The car swerved because Tony Blair decided to allow the Eastern European countries immediate free access to the UK labour market. He didn’t have to do that and other nations in the EU didn’t. Blair also failed to place any restrictions on new immigrants in regards to access to free services such as the NHS.
I find it kind of interesting that once the word “Brexit” is mentioned, a few new people came into this blog out of no where and instantly start commenting. It looks as though there are “bots” scouring the web looking for certain keywords and once those keywords are detected, either another “bot” or an actual human being (gasp!) comes in and start commenting. It does not really sound real because for any lurkers (real humans), they will usually say that they have been on this website for a while, never have time to comment and now coming in to comment. Those two (pm and Trousers) just start off, shooting from the hip. I am pretty sure after 1-2 day,s pm and Trousers will disappear into the thin air again.
Perhaps I should say “hi” to the NSA or CIA or any “bots” ? This is not right. Desperate times require desperate measures. Money is not important but control is.
….please, do be a good chap and grow up.
i think collapse gonna look like Yugoslavia final times where people kill each other for resources
selling the wife for bread and medicine there will no one give damn about race/ethnicity/reglion/and caste like in my country
A renewable energy company personally picked by US President Barack Obama is on the verge of collapse, potentially leaving international banks on the hook for around $29.6 billion. Why did Obama waste billions of dollars on idiotic renewables? He is obviously energy illiterate and peak oil ignorant.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/other-industries/spanish-solar-energy-firm-abengoa-facing-296-billion-bankruptcy/news-story/aa119d77a29f11e16e9839e425fc30c0
This is a 2015 article. The possible bankruptcy story goes on and on. The government of Spain does not want it too happen. As far as I know, it is not happening yet.
Statistics for Germany’s energy consumption are available from BP and Eurostat. In total, solar energy was 2% of Germany’s primary energy consumption last year, using BP’s statistics.
But check out what the title and claims are made by this recent Popular Mechanics article. Even Richard Dawkins shared it.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/green-tech/a3168/half-of-germany-is-now-powered-by-solar-energy-16906790/
https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/03/reality-check-germany-does-not-get-half-of-its-energy-from-solar-panels/
How many Wolf Richter, Zero Hedge and Mish Shedlock articles does it take to crash an economy?
Anyone…???
Ohh, that’s easy to answer enough Fast Eddy’s Turkey dinners to fit into a 20 foot storage container!💋
Grains piled on runways, parking lots, fields amid global glut
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-grains-storage-analysis-idUSKBN17D0EO
That’s an certified type of ground based silo with a heavy tarpoline covering. The center high unit as seen in the photos is the mechanism used to rotate the tarpoline around in circle until it can be sealed along a seam or reopened for loading on to rail cars.
There’s a use for the empty malls…
Grain over production is partly a demand issue.
Countries like Venezuela and Nigeria aren’t buying much. Low currency relativilities makes grains, and meat that is made possible by grain, unaffordable.
Vilas Capital : Tesla Is Going Bankrupt And Is Still A Great Short
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/04/tesla-tsla-short-vilas/amp/
Excellent analysis.
It will one of the greatest short-sells in all of history! Too bad there will be no one to “collect” at the end.
http://www.newyorker.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/dr-strangelove-still-580.jpg
Country with the largest oil reserves on earth is ruining out of gasoline.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-23/venezuelan-drivers-line-up-for-gasoline-as-fuel-shortage-worsens
Well, if Chavez hadn’t unilaterally changed the terms of agreement with Exxon, that corp. would still be processing their bitumen and they’d have income from that deal plus fuel.
‘Country with the largest oil reserves’
If we found an ocean of oil with the combined volume of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans… on the moon…. would this be considered the largest reserve of oil in the universe?
The UK could have changed the way the world fights global warming. Instead it blew $200 million.
https://qz.com/972939/the-uk-could-have-changed-the-way-the-world-fights-global-warming-instead-it-blew-200-million/
How do you fight global warming — without collapsing the global economy?
We need to be like China and burn cheap coal for fuel to boost our economy. WInd turbines make energy more costly. That sucks the life out of the economy. I am for redirecting all fossil fuel burning away from renewables and put that energy directly into the economy so we can have BAU a little longer.
69% of Americans Have Less Than $1,000 in Savings
https://www.gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/data-americans-savings/
The next downturn i.e. recession is going to be interesting to watch as the situation is ripe for an incredible amount of defaults on loans and bankruptcies. Those 69% have been squeezed right to the edge…
Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis Claims Another Casualty: Its Schools
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/10/us/puerto-rico-debt-schools-close.html
http://imgur.com/rPy34Ce http://imgur.com/mJWe7i9
Anyone who argues America is not collapsing should click on those two links above.
Exxon’s $74 Billion Fine In Chad. WOW!
https://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/11/16/exxons-74-billion-fine-in-chad-unbelievable-economic-numbers-are-unbelievable/#71ad9f206878
Saudi Arabia is building a city for entertainment, and it’s almost the size of Las Vegas.
(WTF is Saudi Arabia thinking? They are headed towards bankruptcy and they are gong to waste tons of cash on a major entertainment park? )
http://143cars.com/index.php/2017/04/11/saudi-arabia-is-building-a-city-for-entertainment-and-its-almost-the-size-of-las-vegas/
public executions always attract big crowds
makes perfect sense to me
Saudi Arabia- “Get rid of expats by 2020, public sector told”
http://saudigazette.com.sa/saudi-arabia/get-rid-expats-2020-public-sector-told/
Euro zone unemployment higher than data show, capping wages: Study
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-unemployment-ecb-idUSKBN1860UU
How much coal goes into a wind turbine?
1 MW of wind turbine capacity requires 230 tons of coal for the steel.
1 MW of wind turbine capacity requires 61 tonnes of coal for the concrete.
That’s 291 tons of coal per MW of wind turbine installed capacity.
More https://debunkhouse.wordpress.com/2013/09/12/how-much-coal-goes-into-a-wind-turbine/
According to here, one tonne of coal contains about 8 MWh of energy.
So energy contained in 291 tonnes of coal = approx 2300 MWh.
So a 1 MWh wind turbine will pay back the energy content of the coal used to make it in about 14 weeks (running at full capacity).
Result! >:)
But gosh, 291 is such a big number! I mean, FE said it’s a big number so it must be bad. Look, wind and solar won’t save us, but hyperbole is annoying.
My point exactly, Kurt. 291 is a big number, far too big for me to visualize, but of itself it means very little.
Factor this in as well….
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/01/de-icing-wind-turbine.jpg
these are big numbers — are you disputing the numbers?
The wind turbines produce electricity not coal! So they do not return the equivalent of what they use. Coal on the other hand can build millions of wind turbines. But wind turbines cannot produce coal. You cannot compare wind turbines to coal. They are two totally different things. You cannot compare solar panes to oil either. For one, you need oil and industry to make wind turbines and solar panels. So, in effect the 230 tons of coking coal to produce the steel is gone forever. And the coal example is just one of many resources that are used to create wind turbines. And it will take millions of wind turbines. All those resources will have to be pulled out of an economy that is already reeling from diminishing returns.
Another point to consider as resources are pulled out of the economy to produce wind turbines, you are then replacing a highly energy dense source (coal, oil, natural gas) with low energy density and intermittent wind turbines. Your going backwards. It is a non-starter. Going forward, the economy needs cheaper and more dense energy sources.
I don’t see installed value either. More energy to install and service. A windmill doesn’t do much on the factory floor.
Indeed, it is a long chain of supplies, equipment, energy and infrastructure needed to be in place before a wind turbine can even be useful. And as you said it has to be produced, delivered, serviced, maintained. And, of course, there is the need for back up somehow when the wind is not blowing.
Exactly!
Over 90% of the coal used in the US is burned to produce electricity. Wind turbines produce electricity. It is valid to compare the two.
Of course my calculation misses out many of the costs of building wind turbines and it should not be taken at face value. I am certainly not of the opinion we can maintain IC with wind turbines or solar panels.
The infrastructure (including the grid) and demand (population and their energy eating devices) were enabled by FF’s. Renewables are nothing less than parasites, they were not required nor efficient enough to exist in a growing world of cheap, easy and plentiful fossil fuels.
Renewables now add to the problem of overshoot and global warming by extending the burn. They ensure our demise and are an extension of FF use. In that regard according Fast Eddy they are good and should be praised and all arguments shut down by screaming “burn more and build more renewables and Teslas”.
You have hit on what may be the primary reason why governments are pushing for ‘renewable’ energy — building more solar panels and windmills maintains demand for fossil fuels — which helps to elevate the prices — which ensures that fossil fuel producers stay in business.
No it isn’t. Renewables takes too much energy away from the economy to build. We need that energy to “sustain” what little time we have left of BAU.
“It’s the economy stupid”………GW Bush or was it Clinton….can’t remember.
EVERYTHING takes “too much away from the economy to build”. Maybe you need to explain just what exactly would be done with “the economy” in place of building and using renewables and electric cars. That’s the whole point, for without “the economy” we collapse and most likely die. We need wage earners and consumers along with the useless stuff they buy.
So called renewables most definitely add the right kind of energy to support the consumerism we desperately need. But they are most definitely not sustainable nor a solution. They are FF extenders and cannot be born, live or be maintained without fossil fuels. The reason electric cars and renewable came into existence, was that we are reaching the end of easy, abundant and affordable energy. They are a symptom of decline, like the ever bigger stone heads that were erected on Easter Island.
Replacement of oil by alternative sources
While oil has many other important uses (lubrication, plastics, roadways, roofing) this section considers only its use as an energy source. The CMO is a powerful means of understanding the difficulty of replacing oil energy by other sources. SRI International chemist Ripudaman Malhotra, working with Crane and colleague Ed Kinderman, used it to describe the looming energy crisis in sobering terms.[13] Malhotra illustrates the problem of producing one CMO energy that we currently derive from oil each year from five different alternative sources. Installing capacity to produce 1 CMO per year requires long and significant development.
Allowing fifty years to develop the requisite capacity, 1 CMO of energy per year could be produced by any one of these developments:
4 Three Gorges Dams,[14] developed each year for 50 years, or
52 nuclear power plants,[15] developed each year for 50 years, or
104 coal-fired power plants,[16] developed each year for 50 years, or
32,850 wind turbines,[17][18] developed each year for 50 years, or
91,250,000 rooftop solar photovoltaic panels[19] developed each year for 50 years
The world consumes approximately 3 CMO annually from all sources. The table [10] shows the small contribution from alternative energies in 2006.
Unfortunately … you have this wrong:
Wind Power Is Not Economically Feasible
March 25, 2015
The U.S. Department of Energy recently released a report claiming consumers and the environment would benefit from increasing the proportion of electricity derived from wind power. In the report, they estimate the nation can deploy wind power to economically provide 35 percent of our nation’s electricity and supply renewable power in all 50 states by 2050.
A 2012 report from Reason Foundation found it is not economically feasible to expect wind generation to produce more than 20 percent of operating electricity capacity. Expanding wind penetration beyond about 10 percent requires a significant increase in the amount of available “spinning reserve.”
That need for backup increases the capital costs of wind power because the spinning reserve generating capacity must be available even if it is not being used. Considering this, wind energy is not cost-competitive with fossil fuels by a wide margin, even the Department of Energy’s own estimates put the leveled cost of wind at 20 percent higher than natural gas.
To achieve 35 percent by 2050, 11 gigawatts of wind generation capacity per year need to be installed. Such a massive investment (reaching $70 billion in 2050) would divert hundreds of billions of dollars away from other investment in innovations, which have the potential for far higher returns, generating greater benefits to a larger number of companies and providing more and better jobs.
http://www.ncpa.org/sub/dpd/index.php?Article_ID=25492#sthash.9ZeEkJV1.dpuf
Have what wrong?
Earlier this year I picked up a German physicist from a conference. An expert in electromagnetism. He was of the opinion that renewables would be able to power IC into the distant future.
Who should I trust? A PhD scientist or an anonymous poster with expertise in both the pseudo-science of economics and driving off OFW posters he disagrees with?
The answer is: neither. I should weigh all the evidence and make my own mind up. And I have. Renewables won’t save us. I was only playing devil’s advocate.
Did you get his email address? Maybe you could send this to him and ask him to comment:
Germany’s Expensive Gamble on Renewable Energy : Germany’s electricity prices soar to more than double that of the USA because when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind does not blow they have to operate and pay for a completely separate back up system that is fueled by lignite coal http://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-expensive-gamble-on-renewable-energy-1409106602
Why Germany’s nuclear phaseout is leading to more coal burning
Between 2011 and 2015 Germany will open 10.7 GW of new coal fired power stations. This is more new coal coal capacity than was constructed in the entire two decades after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The expected annual electricity production of these power stations will far exceed that of existing solar panels and will be approximately the same as that of Germany’s existing solar panels and wind turbines combined. Solar panels and wind turbines however have expected life spans of no more than 25 years. Coal power plants typically last 50 years or longer. At best you could call the recent developments in Germany’s electricity sector contradictory.
https://carboncounter.wordpress.com/2015/06/06/why-germanys-nuclear-phaseout-is-leading-to-more-coal-burning/
Germany Runs Up Against the Limits of Renewables
Even as Germany adds lots of wind and solar power to the electric grid, the country’s carbon emissions are rising. Will the rest of the world learn from its lesson? After years of declines, Germany’s carbon emissions rose slightly in 2015, largely because the country produces much more electricity than it needs. That’s happening because even if there are times when renewables can supply nearly all of the electricity on the grid, the variability of those sources forces Germany to keep other power plants running. And in Germany, which is phasing out its nuclear plants, those other plants primarily burn dirty coal.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601514/germany-runs-up-against-the-limits-of-renewables/
F789 your German mate and his PHD.
Tell him he can shove it up his a-ss sideways.
Then tell him to drop in on FW ….
I am waiting for him…
http://www.kitchenknifeking.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/What-is-a-Whetstone.gif
Is there no comment can get past Fast Eddy? You are relentless! As I said, I agree with you. I meet dozens of people through my work every day but rarely exchange correspondence details [those girls who called me a DILF on Wednesday being an exception – LOL]. As it happened, I did mention OFW to the German physicist and talked about storage and intermittency problems with him, but he wasn’t dissuaded. I really wish he would come here and argue his case.
An easier and – in my opinion – better way to estimate the energy balance of a windmill is to take into account ALL costs (in money) because every USD, DKK, EUR etc. will eventually go into some sort of energy consumption, i.e. coal, as coal fires the power plants delivering this energy. And then convert this value into the equivalent amount of industrial kwh. (I think I can buy approx. 15 industrial kwh for 1 Euro):
If you know the price of a windmill you have to add approx. 20 % in operation and maintenance. This amount should be divided by the price of an industrial kwh. You can estimate the total output in kwh of this windmill in its lifetime quite precisely and compare this value with the kwh-value of its total costs. Anholt Vindmøllepark (Anholt Wind Mill Farm) as an example will produce approx. 44 billion kwh and its price in industrial kwh will roughly be 20 billion kwh. An ‘eroie’ of 2.2 so far. But then I have not included the intermittent nature of the farm which – as you will know – has very severe negative side effects. The total energy balance of the windmill is in fact well under 1.
I have never had any comments from FiniteWorlders as to the logic in my calculations.
Up till now I have waited in vain. Hopefully I will receive reactions this time!
Much ado about nothing…
Since windmills do not generate power when the wind is not blowing … therefore it is necessary to have a complete back up system — coal… gas… nuclear…. to provide electricity when the wind is not blowing …
These back up systems cannot be fired up on a dime — so they need to be running in the background even when the wind is blowing …
Which means astronomical costs are involved…
That is the TRUE cost of a wind system….
Not sure who is behind the decision to install these throughout much of Europe — but they qualify for Diplomatic Passports from DelusiSTAN.
Without or with equal taxes or subsidies or fixed prices this shouldn’t matter. When sun is shining and wind is blowing and nuclear is humming along electricity will be close to free.
Up until when non-dispatchable sources regularly exceed consumtion solar and wind might be valuable.
I thought it was 100% correct the first time you wrote it. Subsidies and taxes removed.
When it comes to the oil market, the narrative over the past year, ever since OPEC’s first aborted meeting last April, has been just one: limit crude supply in hopes of rebelancing the oil market, reducing excess inventories, in the process sending the price of oil higher.
However, echoing what we have warned for many months, overnight the world’s biggest independent oil trader said OPEC’s efforts could be in vain because the oil producing cartel is seeking to control the wrong thing: it’s not a matter of supply, but global demand which is simply not there.
According to Vitol Group, the world’s biggest independent oil trader…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-10/there%E2%80%99s-no-growth-worlds-largest-oil-trader-has-stunning-warning-opec
Cost of decommissioning North Sea ‘to wipe out all future tax revenues’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/09/cost-decommissioning-north-sea-wipe-future-tax-revenues/
Three reasons why only a MOREon would oppose the Elders:
1. If you are a good little boy you get very very rich by serving them
Obama Pockets $3.2 Million For Speaking Gig In Milan
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/obama-pockets-32-million-speaking-gig-milan
Tony Blair’s personal fortune amounts to £60m, a Telegraph investigation discovered in 2015.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11670425/Revealed-Tony-Blair-worth-a-staggering-60m.html
2. The NSA has incriminating information on EVERYONE. If you oppose or upset them – they ruin you.
Timeline: The David Petraeus scandal – USA Today
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/04/23/timeline-general-david-petraeus-paula-broadwell-jill-kelley/26245095/
3. If you persist — they do this to you:
Lincoln was doing some end runs on the bankers with his Liberty dollars. Another presidency terminated with a head shot by a lone gunman assumed to have some personal axe to grind, then rapidly and conveniently killed before his side of the story is told. Might just be a coincidence, but sure looks like a similar MO.
list is endless who tried fight deep state and got kill
martian Luther king
john lennon
that why i say fuk da deep state that included police/mic./intelligence agents and oligarch
https://youtu.be/51t1OsPSdBc
Despite the robust economic growth, lower unemployment, modestly rising wages and lowest interest rates in Slovakia, the percentage of unpaid loans rises:
https://spravy.pravda.sk/ekonomika/clanok/428961-coraz-viac-ludi-nesplaca-uvery/
My point on reporting what I see around me is that, well, the present matters. The past is gone, the future has not yet arrived. Collapse will occur to all of us, but whether it has occurred yet or not is important. Also, physical reality is a good observation starting point, rather than all of the statistics , which can be massaged by anyone, whether mainstream or not.
Yes, things will collapse, but so far they haven’t where I’m at. If I was in Syria, Venezuela, Greece, or -insert your peripheral country here – maybe I would report differently.
The core is preserving itself at the expense of the periphery. Do I celebrate my apparent good fortune? No, because I have no fortune to speak of, and I’m keenly aware of what is coming But nor do I apologize for my situation, just like anybody out there with wealth and good health has to apologize to the poor and sick.
Yes, we have what we have now, despite huge debt and high valuations.
As long as the collapse hasnt happened, there still might come a few up and downs..
Take a big investor. He looks at the stock evaluations and draws away all his doe. But a few quarters later he gets bored just looking from the sidelines, and observes the CBs pushing all stocks to ever higher numbers. And the big investor starts investing again in stocks, despite his knowledge that it all will crash eventually.
Theres some serious doe to be made with the information that everything is rigged..
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-09/iron-ore-weakens-again-as-speculation-of-forced-sales-increases
https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iS8FoE8ZB7lM/v2/800x-1.png
No doubt the price will be manipulated higher at some point – again…
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/03/19/C%26I%20loans%203.19_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/04/19/20170509_LOANAGG_0.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-09/fed-reports-unexpected-collapse-credit-card-auto-loan-demand
The Father of Subprime Auto Loans Is Cashing Out
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/the-father-of-subprime-auto-loans-is-cashing-out
http://d1w116sruyx1mf.cloudfront.net/ee-assets/channels/article_default/ally-financial-is-approaching-a-critical-support-level-1.png
Thanks for the article.
The sharks smell blood – everywhere ….
Retail Meltdown Demolishes Mall Investors
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/09/retail-meltdown-demolishes-mall-reit-investors/
http://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/US-REIT-Kimco-2017-05-08.png
Simply a reflection of the shift to online buying. A paradoxical shift.
Retail still accounts for over 90% of sales in the U.S.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/ecommerce_sales_as_percent_retail_sales
Partly that…
But the bigger issue is that real wages are stagnant — the job numbers are bald faced lies — and people are carrying massive debt so unable to buy as much stuff
Are people ordering food on Amazon instead of going to restaurants?
http://www.nrn.com/sales-trends/restaurant-sales-traffic-tumble-february
Are people buying cars on Amazon?
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/02/carmageddon-not-yet-but-hot-air-hisses-out-of-auto-bubble/
http://peakoil.com/publicpolicy/measuring-energy-return-on-investment-at-a-national-level
I wonder about your assumptions using the Turchin/Nefedov “Secular Cycle” curve to intuit the pace of collapse, given your “dissipative structure” heuristic of our economy. I think your reasoning in general is sound, and that we are in fact in the middle of a collapse that started probably 10-15 years ago, but that the declining back end of the curve is a gentler slope and is being masked by an under-reporting of inflation by 2-4%, which means that instead of growing by 1-2% per year, our economy has actually been shrinking consistently and modestly in the -0.5% to -1.5% range or thereabouts. We “feel” all of the usual pains of contraction, it’s just that we have been fooled by false measurements into believing what we want to believe — that we are still growing and still prospering, albeit not as much as we did 30-40 years ago.
What mechanism, exactly, would shock us out of this “gentle” downward -0.5% or -1% yearly contraction and nosedive us into the Battle of Economic Armageddon? How does it work for hurricanes, if your analogy works to explain the pace of economic collapse?
Also I’m wondering how the collapse occurs from the demand side. People don’t suddenly stop all economic activity. Maybe 3 good years in a row they go on a nice expensive vacation in the summer, and then the next year they feel a pinch and they go on a mediocre and less expensive vacation maybe closer to home and shift their nice expensive vacations to every other year. And then a few years later every year becomes a mediocre vacation, and so on. What’s the result if 10 million people do that? How does that accelerate a decline into a nosedive?
http://gregor.us/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/US-Per-Capita-Oil-Consumption-Million-btu-2000-2016-e1491309981648.png
Good post DI, because it shows US oil consumption/demand is not declining but gradually rising since 2011.
I don’t understand what you are saying with this chart? What is your point? Please explain further I am still just waking up!
Yes! We are already in collapse. Many instadoomers here think that it will be lights out after a day or two. They fail to recognize that as long as there exist people someone wants to do business. Just because people are poorer this year than last doesn’t mean they lie down to die, they will just make do with less. So a supply chain fails. New chains will be made the same way the old chains were made, by people meeting people doing business.
I don’t think we fully understand the economic system. Many people are stuck in classical economics where too much debt and too little profit equals bankruptcy equals collapse. Just as price mechanics for commodities behave unexpectedly (e.g. low prices instead of high) when we approach limits, maybe the economy as a whole also behaves unexpectedly? Instead of stopping credit to insolvent but important companies we keep the tab open or even nationalize it?
The financial world is just a marketplace to trade goods. Some sell potatoes and others sell fish. If a couple of potato farmers lost their harvest they won’t be closing down the entire marketplace! There will just be less potato traded and less potato eaten. Some will starve because of this shortage, and so on. The marketplace is just a means to dissipate our resources. As time goes on, we will have less and less resources available at the marketplace. This means less jobs and less food as time goes on.
This is what collapse looks like. It’s when you lose your job and can’t get a new one. You start living off welfare. You might move in with your parents. You start buying cheaper brands of stuff. Sell the car, taking the bus or walking instead. Collapse comes to one person at a time. And it has been going on for years and will go on until we are devastated by an epidemic or global food shortages.
We are not in collapse.
The global economy is growing.
That is not collapse.
Of course some regions are not growing — nothing new with that — there have always been some regions of the world that have been failing — the term we use to refer to those regions is The Third World.
When a key country in the OECD fails — for example Japan… or Italy… or Spain… or France…. that will cause a financial crisis like we had in 2008 — the CBs will not likely be able to ride to the rescue this time…
And then you will see a rapid collapse – there will be a moment where people realize that nothing can be done …. and it will all tip over.
Think of past stock market crashes — one minute the markets are screaming higher — the next they are plunging…
It will be like that — except the plunge will be permanent:
https://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/ON-BI814_CrashA_G_20150226175646.jpg
it ain’t going to be cheap, sending humans to Mars: “you’re talking about $1 trillion, spread over the course of the next 25 years”.
http://time.com/money/4765718/travel-mars-price-cost-tourism/?xid=newsletter-brief
But we’ll have women with three breasts!!! I say it is definitely worth it!
http://www.total-geeks.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/totalrecallbreasts.jpg
maybe she took the tour of the Hanford site:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Fvcj4yx3UQ
A tunnel collapsed 9May 2017
Too much like some other kind of animal – keep it to two please.
It is always a bit scary to be so critical of the so-called good habits we have learned from our parents.
If we have a family dinner with them, and I talk about the downturn of nature and the energy supplies, they are keen on their achievements and the luxury that is now.
For them, this is proof that nothing really has to change.
Earlier, the evolution was slower, and the generation of the causers of the problems was already dead by the time the consequences became apparent. Thus, a next generation of rulers could make a more pragmatic change without the guilty being appointed. Now the guilty are still in power when the problems begin, and they persistently deny their mistaken decisions from the past, or even stimulate even worse new wrong choices.
There seems to be a camp of global warming and deniers mulling about here. So let’s just call it Global Cooling that is causing the low sea ice in the Arctic that might be more acceptable.
Here is the inescapable fact the loss of see ice in the Arctic will create dramatic instability in our weather. It acts as a huge thermal storage device. In the winter it absorbs the extreme cold warming the northern hemisphere and oceans by giving off heat. In the summer it absorbs heat moderating the summer temperatures of the atmosphere and oceans. It also reflects solar gain in summer preventing the ocean from taking on solar gain.
The jet stream is dependent on the temperature differential for it to function as well as the North Atlantic currents. No matter how you slice it the ice is nearly gone and never before have ever seen this happen.
The feed back is the Artic Ocean is being exposed to greater solar gain which is why the ice was still melting in complete darkness last December.
The jet stream is so weak we are seeing February record highs and March record lows. Crops depend on stable weather so whether we deny warming or not we’ve got a problem. The formation of the jet stream is like a hurricane. The down draft of sinking air creates the rotation if the Arctic Ocean becomes exothermic the circulation might stop. The North Atlantic current might as well. These events will disrupt the water and oxygen cycles.
JT, great post….thanks for sharing and if it happens even better!
Fast Eddy and Company will starve, along with all the other RICH Preppers that were the
MAJOR CAUSE of it all and scoffed at it all.
You made my DAY!
And if AGW is caused by humans you did not contribute?
How many children do you have?
I have zero.
Which means that I have to fly more … drive more… buy more… in order to compensate and keep BAU alive.
Your lasting legacy on the Planet…GH GAS…essentially forever…
BTW…NO children …knew a long long while ago it would come to this end
Well then you – like me – have to work extra hard at burning up fossil fuels …. I urge you to book a few flights… turn up the AC…. buy more stuff…
Fortunately most people are not like us — they are breeders — and breeders are what make it possible for us to enjoy all the comforts of BAU.
Burn More Coal Now
When I was a teenager and saw parents coming to school because the principal called them because of xyz reason (kid unruly, or not studying, or whatever) I already knew that nope that was not for me…and now that I know what I know, holy sh.i.t am I happy with my choice..when SHTF that is one thing I will not have to worry about (although I do feel terrible for my 7 year old niece) 🙁
I have been traumatized over the years by these sorts of incidents involving humans…
We will never have absolute proof one way or the other on this subject.
Scientists have a nasty habit of flip-flopping.
The thing is…
Why do people care about this?
If we are causing AGW then the only way to stop it is to stop burning fossil fuels.
And soon after we’d all be piles of bones on the ground under crystal clear blue skies.
Burn More Coal Now.
If it is causing climate change — so what. The only other choice would lead to our extinction.
“The jet stream is dependent on the temperature differential for it to function as well as the North Atlantic currents.”
You have no idea how many times I’ve tried to explain that to climate change deniers but to no avail. I’m beginning to wonder if there are two basic human brain designs; one that can understand something more complex than the ingredients to a pizza and one type of design that cannot. Think about it – they have no intelligent counter argument. They just parrot falsehoods fed to them by the FF industry and Faux news. Plain and simple they are just dull to get it. It’s a 5 watt light bulb trying to understand something from people that understand it, 100 watt light bulbs. It can brush it’s teeth and put itself to bed and push buttons on a remote control but nothing more. Maybe a remnant brain design that never got weeded out in the evolution of modern man, somewhere between a human and cow. A bi-pedal grazer so to speak.
Along the same lines… I try to explain to those who moan about how we have to change our ways otherwise we will fry the earth that changing our ways i.e. reducing our carbon burn…. would collapse the world — resulting in total starvation – massive releases of radiation —- and the extinction of humans (and possibly all life).
They do not seem to understand that there are no other options — we either burn more carbon every single year — or we burn none – and we die.
There are those who believe that if only we would switch to solar and wind power and Tesla cars that we would be saved —- who do not understand that this is impossible — and that all of these technologies require – you guessed it — MASSIVE amounts of carbon to be burned to support the build out.
They do not seem to understand that solar panels and Teslas do not grow on trees —- they fail to understand that MASSIVE amounts of metals need to be extracted and smelted using — you guessed it – lignite coal energy….
I feel your frustration — it is really really irritating having to listen to people bitch and moan about global warming.
Global Warming is Good. When Global Warming stops (assuming we cause it) trust me — you will not be celebrating.
You will be Dead.
Burn More Coal NOW
Fast Eddy just behaving badly…LOL
Why bother about jet streams. In plain English, what does flipflopping jet streams mean? Why is an blue ocean event in the Arctic bad?
Try to plan a house, a garden, gardening, food production or food storage when,
– one winter the snow just keeps ooooon coming.. like 2-3 days of nonstop snow.. and when the snowing stops.. 2-3 days of more nonstop snowing.. jayyy.. untill the roofs cave in with the weight of the snow..
– then when the spring finally comes, well that there above, in water, rains, floods happens. Floods swiping away all topsoil from your fields.
– the growing season should start.. you start planting everything.. its nice and warm and the sun is shining.. finally after a few weeks you feel youre done good, every seedling is in the ground growing.. next night freezing temperatures.. and a feet of snow for a week.. with all your seedlings for the year gone, dead, frozen
– growing season finally starts.. time to decide what to grow.. ok.. now its the new normal to have +/- 30 C temperature swings, suddenly.. ok.. what to grow.. what to grow.. what to grow.. well nothing grows in such conditions..
To me knowledge about the Arctic, how bad it is, its like having a weather prediction for the next 10.000 years = Baaaaaad weather, I mean bad
Example:
France’s Top Vineyards Suffer Biggest Loss in Decades
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/vineyards-face-1-1-billion-hit-as-farmers-fight-frost-with-fire
I for one just dont care on earth day I plug my strobe light in and do my best to point it at a libtard. I do think it is bs. So I get a good laugh.
Please try to follow
Perhaps we can figure out at least how to make the best of the situation. I still hold out for a religious ending of some type. I don’t know what it will be. It might represent the merger of all of the religions in the world. Or something we don’t understand at all.
I agree that the answer is essentially spiritual.
We have misplaced our faith in the religion of wealth and materialism.
The energy clock is ticking. We were given a powerful but limited gift to build a beautiful world for all of God’s children. This is the great test of our age. Don’t stop believing.
Thank you Gail for all the truth you share.
Maybe evolutionary?
Human intelligence+aggressiveness=
Self-destruction.
a major episode of the end will undoubtedly involve religion–but not in the way you imagine.
I will propose a scenario–feel free to correct it where you think I might be wrong. I’ll also condense it as best I can:
(remember the overall controlling factor here will be denial that there’s anything wrong with energy supplies)
The US energy depletion continues, and the economy deteriorates in line with it.
There is a demand that things be “fixed” But of course the problems are unfixable.
Civil unrest grows as it goes on, the majority still clinging to the idea that prosperity is a matter of politics and prayer, not energy availability
Government reacts violently against civil disorder, eventually declares martial law
This splits the nation into regions, according to politics, ethnicity, geography, religion. Without sufficient energy, the government cannot prevent secessions. In spite of that, martial laws will continue, History is clear that economic privation throws up a dictator to enforce those laws
Some regions will be convinced that prayer is the answer, that Jesus will refill the oilwells if they pray hard enough. Others will realise that that won’t happen.
So the godbotherers and the atheists see a reason for their problems—not enough/too much prayer—and use that as a reason to go to war, in so far as they are able to. You have a sinner living next door who doesnt go to the right . or no church at all ??—then he is responsible for your problems, even though you’ve been good neighbours for years.
(Laugh all you want–then read your history books to see just how many times that’s happened in the recent past…and is happening right now)
But it couldn’t happen in the USA?—check out your current government, then think about that.
As the “normality” of our accepted way of life begins to break up, prayer will be seen as the last resort in regions where religion is all pervasive—people are just not praying hard enough for Jesus to return. Then your dictator will (for expediency) morph into a theocratic fascist dictator.
As regions consolidate themselves, there will be insufficient resources to support democracies, so there will be a series of petty dictators, each running their fiefdom according to whim and circumstance, fighting over the only resource left: the favour of their particular version of god.
When you come to think about it, spiritual belief was probably the first manifestation of consciousness in early homo sapiens 1m years ago. It might just be the thing we hold onto at the very last as we surrender the planet to a species with more sense
Spiritual belief/image of god started the mess we call civilization around 10.000 years ago and will come to an end sooner than later. Spiritual belief turned human beings living in peaceful small tribes into megalomaniac conquerors and murderers. But you are right Norman. It will get very ugly in the years to come and we will all witness what true democide (https://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/NOTE1.HTM) looks like.
thanks for that link Lyn—I hadn’t come across that before.
Ithelps me to destroy the nonsense that man will be nice to his fellow man come SHTF time…and I use the word man advisedly
Makes sense to me. I do think that one alternative is a nation wide martial law approach by the military. But you are probably right in that eventually that disintegrates into smaller regions.
I agree with you Norman.
Religion is a systematic way of believing, thinking and acting. It can be a complex system that requires energy to maintain its integrity. It is subject to many of the same problems facing all other complex systems that are being deprived of energy. As less energy is available the system must either collapse of reorganize into smaller less complex, less energy intensive groupings. In other words, there will likely be a disintegration of religious systems that are ineffective at addressing human needs.
Our current religion, which centers on faith in a monetary system to create a materialistic consumers paradise is under pressure. It will be difficult to keep believing in this religion as cheap and abundant fossil fuel energy is no longer available to prop up its false ideology.
What happens when people lose their faith in a system? Do they just lay down and die? I don’t think so. After a painful period of adjustment, they recast their faith into a new system. Hopefully one that is founded upon more certain principles of reality. A faith that inspires people to live according to ideals that give meaning and purpose to life; while at the same time addresses the challenges that confront us.
All of our Religions are being tested. Most will fail. This planet has a finite amount of cheap abundant energy. When we no longer have access to the energy we need to maintain a complex ineffective system, it will break down. Institutions that have served us well in the past may be unable to serve us in the future.
I am optimistic about the future.
Out of the ashes of one civilization’s ruins the seed of a better one will grow.
Perhaps, but at some point the nuclear power plants will be abandoned and meltdown. That’s gonna be a big problem, even the Amish in the US, who technically did the right thing all along, will burn up. I think that’s one of the reasons the Norwegians did the seed bank. 🙁
praying won’t neutralise nuclear waste
i dont see the connection
all civilisations have needed/will need energy input
Rome extracted tribute in the form of grain from their North African empire, and used it to give away free bread to prevent starvation (energy input+ slave labour, but slaves need food too) grain is the ultimate energy resource.
times have changed
In roman times the world had less than 0.5 bn people—there was lots of space for new growth–but now the world is full.
there are no resources to sustain the growth of fresh civilistations
you cannot build things without burning things, that’s just the way it is.
and we’ve burned everything
Don’t forget that fusion reactor in the sky, the one we call the sun. Before the industrial age this planet supported about one billion people. I agree our current civilization is unsustainable it will collapse and billions of people will die.
Is it possible that after the collapse and the return of a new dark age; people might be able to reorganize a civilization that remains within the limits of sustainable energy?
I live on a 20 acre homestead in the central valley of California. I am practicing growing my own food with heirloom seeds and sustainable organic methods. I believe my property can easily support a community of a hundred people, maybe more. It has a secure source of water, and I can build housing with on site materials. What do you think I should do? Should I attempt to create a resilient, self sufficient, well protected community that has a chance of caring for those I love? Or should I just give up all hope like most of the people on this site?
on your 20 acres, you are doing the right thing.
but who decides on the hundred people who will live there in the future—it is after all your property–you own it and theoretically have the right to decide that
100 people might have a very meagre existence on 20 acres, but i’m no expert. Rememeber if you use a ploughorse, that takes out 2 acres. Which would seem to suggest everyone will providetheir own muscle power. I hope then can.
Will your hundred people work the land and pay you tribute?—that makes you king. It makes the rest serfs. Unless work is communal and you surrender all rights to your land. Suppose 1000 show up?
Come SHTF time–will 20 strong men be delegated to defend it while the rest work the land to produce food? I notice you used the word “well protected”
–at least in USA you can own guns—friend and foe alike….now you have an army.
What happens when they decide to depose you. As they will i assure you.
we havent given up all hope in here—but neither have we decided to ignore reality and human nature.
you are fortunate—we hope your good fortune persists
It’s actually a pretty easy decision…
How many people live within a tank of petrol of you?
How many people live within an hour walking distance?
When the grocery stores close — people will be at your farm gate begging to be fed —- mothers with children….
You won’t be able to feed them. So do you shoot them?
How do you keep them out of your garden –particularly at night?
And what about the seriously bad guys with guns who show up — who won’t be asking.
You are wasting your time. You are wasting money.
There is no way out of this
Theophilus if doing all the things you are doing makes you happy than I think that is amazing…BUT if you’re doing these things and it makes you miserable but you still do them because you want to give you and yours a chance to survive the bottleneck…then I feel sorry for you…what a way to waste your last days on earth (if it does not make you happy that is)…
Theophilius, first, to me this is all theoretical, because the odds are so much against us. That said, here are a few pointers from my point of view.
In terms of feeding a hundred people try to think large scale soup kitchen three times a day, with lots of bread and herb paste etc. with the bread. Soups last longer, are easier to warm again, and boiling water makes vegetables more digestable, giving more calories per vegetable to the people you have there.
Remember not to feed someone just for charity, but organize work parties gathering herbs, making compost, making raised beds from the compost, weeding and transporting water. Everybody works.
Heat, cooking, efficient fuel use is essential. So somebody should know how to refine brick stoves etc. There are a lot of designs for brick stoves, just pick one efficient design for starters, so that you have one way of using firewood efficiently. Also remeber to use the ashes as bush or woods fertilizers.
Having all nutrients circulating inside your 20 acres is very important. So youll need lots of 3ft by 3ft by 3ft composts and also lots of composting toilets. You can use wooden pallets at first to have lots of 3ftx3ftx3ft composts all around your premises. For the composting toilets you can actually use waste bins and such.
Youll need lots of biochar, because it can be used as mold prevention in root cellars, but also as odor prevention in composting toilets and then make an excellent fertilizer. In general, youll need lots of biochar. It has very many excellent uses.
Youll need water barrels, water pumps, water towers, rain water collection and ways of purifying the water with the biochar in a filter and then having drip irrigation or other somesuch. When transporting water, think of Indian Rickshaws.. can you have a cart and a bicycle welded together for better water transport?
Youll need lots of rootcellars. Lots of fermenting jars.
And after you have this working, remember, there will be about a few million more people coming to your homestead. So, prepaire to that accordingly. My suggestion, learn how to make lots of explosives. And try to give all your buddies a polycarbonate shield and a rifle. Those should give your team a small edge, so that you have time to organize the newcomers, so that all who are willing to work for you gets a job. Good luck and Godspeed, though the end result will be the same for all of us..
400m2/capita “easily support”?
DJ, if you look at nutrients alone. It can not be done. The 20 acre homestead would need either fish, or some other form of marine life added tons and tons annually, or a huge amount of bug/mealworm farms.
The 20 acres will be depleted pretty quickly in nutrients.
The way it was done two hundred years ago, was to have sheep, or horses, or cows grazing all around. Then gather those nutrients (poo) to be used in your own fields.
What kind of bugs and what do you feed them with? Ants I doubt one hill is one days food.
If you bring in fish/meat, compost all waste including humanure, how far can 400m2 last? Half calories if loaded with potatoes?
DJ,
Ants can be used by gathering the eggs once a year from the nests. Pretty easy.
Mealworms eat wheat, oats and dry grass and the vegetable scraps from the kitchen.
California has more months in growing season.. so if there is plenty of water, lots of weeding and huge amounts of nutrients, maybe its possible.. dont know the Californian climate that well..
VK,
Do you say they went out in the forest/meadow and collected the poo? What a work.
It isn’t hard finding elk/boar/deer poo, but what is a decent sized pile? 5L? And then carry in hard terrain.
When you could have cow poo delivered by truck.
VK,
Wouldn’t it be easier feeding chickens the scraps?
Or cows … maybe not very economic.
DJ,
No. For intance the cows were gracing all day by the river. Came in for the night.. You see..
Of course …
‘I am optimistic about the future.’
Koombaya….. Koombaya my lord… Koombaya….
Now you are getting it.
The sheep love this song
You’re right about the song zenny, the sheeple might like it, but it was not meant to be taken like that…from the songwriter Pat Macdonald:
“Pat revealed on VH1’s 100 Greatest One-Hit Wonders of the 80s that the meaning of the song was widely misinterpreted as a positive perspective in regard to the near future. Pat somewhat clarified the meaning by stating that it was, contrary to popular belief, a “grim” outlook. While not saying so directly, he hinted at the idea that the bright future was in fact due to impending nuclear holocaust. The “job waiting” after graduation signified the demand for nuclear scientists to facilitate such events. Pat drew upon the multitude of past predictions which transcend several cultures that foreshadow the world ending in the 1980s, along with the nuclear tension at the height of the Cold War to compile the song.”
I respect your intelligence Fast Eddy. But I’m confused about your logic.
It seems that you are proposing that the problems here on planet earth are so great that all of humanity will soon be destroyed. You like to ridicule anyone who thinks some people might just be able to survive. What I don’t understand about you is, why you would waste your limited time here on trying to convince others there is no hope. What purpose does that serve? What satisfaction does that give you? I’m sure there must be something else you would rather do. After all, according to you, the world is about to end and there is nothing that can be done about it.
Koombaya and good luck. 🙂
Obviously you’ve been watching the Handmaiden’s Tale
I haven’t watched that, I didnt need it to figure out for myself that
ours is the first major society where women have not been subjugated and used as breeding potential with little choice in the matter.
Remember women have only had the vote 100 years or less, before that a woman’s property became her husband’s after marriage
Margaret Atwood merely brings that into our current era.
So then I ask why is that?
The answer is that we have enjoyed a unique era of democratic prosperity, provided by fossil fuels (Everything comes down to that I’m afraid)
I will give you a cast iron guarantee, that when a theofascist regime takes over, women’s rights will be removed.
It’s already happening with the constant fight against family planning at every level–a theofascist government will wipe that out immediately.
Men of a certain type are scared stiff of women, that’s why they oppress them.
If women have any hope at all of a half decent life if will be religion only that makes it so.
headbanging time again here
of all the institutions that have been responsible for the subjugation of women—churches of every stripe have been guilty of the worst excesses
Norman-
Head banging? Have you ever considered the fact you might be wrong? In a wold without abundant energy it will be women who are going to suffer the most. That is the natural state of things according to atheists. Not all religions are equal but it is going to take much more than atheism to keep men from abusing women.
The vast majority of Organized Religions place women as second class citizens. And that’s putting it mildly in many cases. Maintaining Organized Religions will be the death of us all.
http://www.jaisiyaram.com/images/diarypages_large/16213_5feb14.jpg
vs
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mzTNVqlts-Y/TWpjtCy4leI/AAAAAAAACr0/WixaCCHpraQ/s1600/HAREM.jpg
Not so sure about the religion part Norm.
To me a god fearing christian who goes to church every sunday to pray for health and success, is much the same as an entiteled IT worker or a stock broker. All three just expect the world to “give” them what they are entiteled for. They expect, are fated to, recieve all health, wealth and happiness in the world. Hence praying in itself is a strange thing to do. Why would god “give” those things to you? How are you more deserving than others? But many in IT and finance also think in that same way. They just simply deserve the best. Its their destiny to dine in high end restaurants..
Then we have the sociopathic compete or die culture. Its your own fault if you loose. Its your own fault if youre not an millionaire. It your own fault if youre not young, beautiful, healthy and wealthy. Its completely logical free market capitalism goes there. Free market capitalism makes us all sosiopaths before the end.
And to me unemployment, ever lowering living standards, credit card debts that get out of hand, small business defaults and homes taken by the repo man from the bank. Will be deeply shameful, personal, matters. Because of all of the above.
Only when large parts of the population are in the same situation, will large scale movements be possible.
But if large parts of the population are in default. Shouldnt the global economy also default ? So, Im not sure if we will have time for a full blown godbotherer dictatorship to blow in our faces.
And after the collapse.. well, those who DO survive longer, than those who wait as pampered babies the universe to just give them everything they might want to ask for.. but have to admit that all communities that work together have MUCH higher chances of day to day survival, so in that way highly religious communities do have an edge..
@Van
My meaning, insofar as I could take it. was that when catastrophe comes physically battering at your door ( by whatever form that might take) then the churches will fill up rapidly because people will have nowhere else to turn
I have to agree with that Norm.
My guess is, we dont have enough time, to make it in to a large scale religious government.. but.. small scale.. sure..
@ Van
religious government is another tack entirely
i think there will be a fundamentalist theofascist regime desperately trying to inflict itself on everybody in the usa, before collapse finally hits.
my reasoning is that martial law will be under the god/righteous banner (Pence maybe?) because everything has happened because you didnt pray hard enough. you can forget the constitution when civil disorder forces martial law on everybody–its a short step then to theofascism
I’ve already set it out here–and having forecast ” a Trump” for 2016 back in 2011—I’m frightening myself with this:
https://medium.com/@End_of_More/the-drumbeat-strengthens-c5a46951c7bf
I don’t buy the religious threat at all. Other than Salafism which is nothing more than an oil funded political movement that exploits the poor your not going to see western Christians killing or enslaving people any more than atheists would or is it that atheists don’t get hungry?
If people are starving in Finland, Iceland or France the governments of these countries are going to act the same way. Has anyone considered the atheist leaders might end up being far worse? They might not even give you the choice to believe or be shot. Maybe age and genetics will be the deciding factor.
Norman, when I started reading your book I stopped at the point of reading the last president of the United States had common sense and was held back from doing good work. He is a killer with no conscience and is now taking money for getting the job done.
Exceedingly few who supported him had the integrity to speak up while he committed his crimes. He could bomb freely. There is many a Trump supporter that is speaking out and are completely disgusted with him.
The atheists didn’t seem to mind when their guy did the dirty work in good times so I expect when bad times come they will really cheer him on.
Religious fanatics are not immune to the effects of 4000+ spent fuel ponds spewing 56,000,000 worth of Hiroshima bombs into the air and water…
So I agree — there will be no time for religious movements to establish themselves.
The time from collapse to extinction will be a matter of weeks – maybe a couple of months because there will be no food. We will rip up whatever grows — we will kill whatever moves — very quickly — and then we will starve.
No doubt there will be pockets of elites living in underground bunkers stocked with food and water that will have filtered air – these may hold out for years…. but they too will eventually succumb because when they are forced to emerge at some point — everything edible will be infused with toxins such as cesium… which will kill them.
Fast- I’ve been doing the “One cord Challenge” which you can find on youtube. I’m about half way through and am enjoying it. I’ve taken to calling it the “F**k you Fast Eddy” challenge and I say that with all good will.
Yes, you are probably right about what will happen. I just find the religious talk here sounds like it comes from people corn holed by a priest and raised by a religious wife beater. Way to much anger directed towards it and no experience of the love and sense of community it brings.
The one cord challenge is not the FE Challenge. Not even close.
As for religion – priests do indeed love corn holing young boys…. but as I have pointed out my issue with the church is the same as my issue with santa claus and the tooth fairy….
I deal in facts and logic. Religion is not based on either.
Therefore I dismiss it — and I dismiss anyone who believes in this nonsense. Just as I dismiss anyone who insists the tooth fairy and santa claus are real.
Religion = Delusion.
But then if you were raised from birth to believe in this bullshit I can see how difficult it would be to understand that your beliefs are ridiculous.
Religion appears to be a natural phenomena with homo sapiens , and probably brought genetic fitness in the past.
However, it is currently a parasitic meme set, using humans as a host for its own replication.
Duncan-
I’ve closely read what you guys say about religion and the only thing that comes to mind is you were all treated poorly by religious people or have not experienced a good religious culture. That, or you have an idea about God that makes no sense to you, and I get that.
I can only say the community/culture I live in would not exist were it not for religion. It is a beautiful and fragile thing. It is nothing like the non-religioues here describe.
religion was/is a good thing to give common purpose and a unity of thinking where people needed that unity to survive in dangerous conditions
it also explained phenomena—good things came mostly from the sky–warmth, rain etc, the occasional bolt of lightning if you’d upset your particular god up there.
bad things came from below–hot lava etc—hence hell and the devil
all perfectly logical to people who didnt know where the sun went at night, and who felt it essential to sacrifice the occasional virgin before dawn just to make sure things would be ok
even churches likely originated with fire:
suppose you’re a stone age einstien, and you figure out how to make and control fire—and nobody else in your tribe knows the secret.
that makes you a pretty important member of society. Fires need protecting from the rain, so they build you a house to protect it. You become keeper of the flame, and everyone must come to you for their fire.
Ever noticed that old european religions often have that flame still at the centre of their worship, and the rood screen behind which only the priests can go?
Interesting idea–the church concept had to start somewhere
There are many arguments against religion and religions themselves provide reasons to hate them to a comfortable person living in fossil fuel powered world.
Perhaps the atheists are the smart ones but I don’t expect to be seeing many of them when the grid goes down.
The Virtues of Godlessness: The least religious nations are also the most healthy and successful
http://www.psywww.com/psyrelig/zuckerman.htm
pearls before swine, Norman. but I enjoy reading your pearls.
My reasons for rejection of religion involve facts logic and common sense – when these are applied to all religions the only conclusion one can reach is that religion is bunk
Peripheral issues involves such things as the support of religions for such things as genocide, rape, pillage, murder … I don’t particularly mind these activities…. it’s the hypocrisy of it all that irritates me
If religion is a parasitic meme set, what is the healthy host that it is attached to? Without this religion, whatever religion that is, would your host be perfectly healthy?
You have a strong faith in not having faith. Lol
It needs to keep enough hosts alive to promote and fight other infected hosts.
But if want peace and health–
If peace on earth is our goal, atheism might be the means to that end–
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/06/peace-on-earth-atheism
Secular Societies Fare Better Than Religious Societies
If religion withers, does society rot? Clearly not.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-secular-life/201410/secular-societies-fare-better-religious-societies
Duncan-
This whole discussion is ridiculous. With lots of fossil fuels a secular society is going to be just fine. How hard is that to understand? If your life depends on rain falling your going to start to pray.
Your studies do not even consider the availability of energy. Your links are like pointing to Tesla as a solution to our problems.
Sorry if I sound mean.
With lots of fossil fuels, religious societies still fail.
We are in population overshoot, in a mass extinction, runaway climate change, and living in a superstition bases economic model.
What is important is what is on the other side of the wall we are about to crash into.
religious groups thrive in low energy societies because the mass of people live hand to mouth in a usually primitive environment, where the priest holds some kind of fear over the local people (check Ireland until say the 1980s.) Then the Irish got prosperous (via the EU) and told the priests to get lost.
Ireland had been priest ridden for centuries.
Same in Uk until the ”age of enlightenment” which coincided with the industrial revolution
as energy depletes, superstitions will reappear, and religious rites will be enforced as a means of crowd control
Saudi is an oddity prosperous yet priest ridden—but shows exactly what happens when priests gain access to government.
The priest will always seek power, he has to, to justify his existence as an imagined instrument of god.
“The Arc of History Bends towards Progress
Path 1 might be called the Liberal Choice. It follows the idea that a just and secure global order requires basic equality among all humans and all nations. But equality is only a half of it: as important as the ideal of equality to the Liberal vision is the way equality might be achieved—namely by way of economic growth and increased overall wealth, which (the Liberal half-assumes and half-hopes) will be spread more equitably in the coming decades, allowing the impoverished to increase their standard of living faster than the already-prosperous will. The Liberal vision imagines that Western and industrialized standards of living might be spread across the globe so that all people might enjoy electricity, paved roads, internet connection, urban anonymity, and (almost as human right) relief from the most difficult aspects of manual labor or subsistence farming, with the opportunity to become educated and free from the limiting prejudices of traditional societies. It sees mobility, individualism, and choice as the hallmarks of this just and equitable society[ii], and imagines humanity becoming more cosmopolitan, tolerant, and secular, while earning its daily bread through endeavors deemed creative according to middle class values.[iii]
Liberals sometimes appreciate the link between economic growth or growing overall prosperity, on the one hand, and a tolerant and cosmopolitan global order, on the other. This link is more implied than discussed (though it is also sometimes difficult to find policy makers discussing anything but economic growth). But Liberals are mistaken to assume, as they often do, that education, mobility, and secular tolerance (along with the embrace of “free markets” and the cultivation of an entrepreneurial spirit) have themselves created economic growth and growing prosperity, and are wrong to imagine (as they do in a vague and image-filled sort of way) that Africa, Asia, and South America might join the Euro-American prosperous middle class once they free themselves from the train of ancient and venerable prejudices[iv] that stunt their progress. Western prosperity, after all, is not a pretty thing if you look into it too much.
Liberals are likewise mistaken to believe that tolerance or peacefulness is a simple state of mind, or that they might be projected effectively with bumper-stickers, protest signs, and earth-tone sweaters, or that a Clinton regime would have somehow been less bloody than a Trump one, or, cum Sanders, that our unparalleled levels of consumption (i.e. prosperity) does not in fact require a menacing global military presence in addition to the manipulations of a multi-billion dollar marketing industry. Peace does not come from virtuous mental states; it is instead the product of a delicate sociological balance that is absent in many parts of the world and that is disappearing in traditionally Liberal nations—and often for reasons that Liberals are hard-pressed to explain except by declaring that we need more Liberalism and its states of mind, backed by vague and increasingly incoherent policy objectives. The tepid enthusiasm for the center left (in the U.S. last autumn or in France today[v]) may be a symptom of its incoherent and increasingly implausible vision.
2. Power Realism[vi]
As I write these words, geo-political analysts are envisioning Russia and the United States on the verge of a new cold war. Perhaps. Regardless of how heated it becomes, the nature of this new East-West opposition, especially when compared to the previous one, is well worth noting. Not only has the past ideological divide mainly disappeared, we might instead be struck by the way these global rivals are coming to resemble each other. Never mind the possible scandals and whatever is at their root, the arrival of Trump represents what might hyperbolically be called Russianization of the U.S. Like Putin, after all, Trump does not operate according to a myth of emancipation, but only according to the pursuit of national power. Trump may not share Putin’s understanding that the source of power lies in resources (but perhaps he does), but his actions and his economic assumptions seem to concur with this view, as does the operating outlook that statecraft should work to corner as many remaining resources as possible.[vii]
Meanwhile, the rise of Trump and Trumpism in the U.S., as well as similar movements and sentiments in Western Europe, should in fact be attributed to the failure of the Liberal path and the decline of global economic growth—the end of one version of the “delicate sociological balance,” and the only version most of us can imagine (that gap in imagination is why I write). Long term stagnation and the end of expansive bourgeois hope have worked to weaponize the “me first” attitude: under a neo-Liberal world order, self-interest was supposed to lead to a rising tide, but Power Realists have little need for any such benevolent apologia. Now harnessed by belligerent nationalists, this attitude of economic competition is more and more likely to accept wide-scale inequality and is instead concerned to be on the winning side of a winner-take-all competition over the world’s remaining resources and comparative advantages.[viii]
To put this last point in another way, relatively few people have, at least until very recently, been willing to openly and consciously embrace the me-first belief-system of Power Realism, absent any accompanying narrative of emancipation. But most of the West’s middle-class has long wanted, expected, and demanded in a way that effectively “chooses” a path of Power Realism and the international bullying it requires–far sooner, at least, than it would veer towards a lowering of any such demand and expectations.
Dead Ends
Liberals and Power Realists equally see the dead-end that the opposing path leads to. But both are equally blind to, or at least resignedly sanguine about, the dead-end that their own path leads to. Liberals correctly understand that the widespread global inequality that Power Realists appear ready to tolerate will lead to permanent war and conflict and perpetual assaults on national security by those left behind.
Meanwhile, Power Realists seem to understand[ix] or sense (though they don’t openly articulate it in public) that the Liberal vision of 3% economic growth into perpetuity is a farce and a fantasy, and that the whole world will never live like we in Europe or America do.[x] Our way of life may in fact depend, in the end, on the walls and borders that Liberals decry on “moral” grounds. Insularity and defensiveness may be the required dispensation, as we choose our way of life over global equality. Power Realists also intuit that most Liberals can be turned into Power Realists under increasingly common economic conditions. The mere loss of expansive prospects is enough to turn many an Obama supporter into a Trump supporter. Minor economic decline, even the absence of economic expansion, was all that it took. Except for those prepared to blaze a new trail into uninhabited ideological wilds, Path 1 usually leads to Path 2 with the onset of only moderate duress. Liberals mistakenly believe that hate is a prime driver[xi] of inequality or discrimination, and that it might be purged from the heart with an enlightened dose of Liberal hope. This may occasionally be true, but hate is more the symptom and might inflict itself on anyone who has suffered repeated humiliations or degradation—or even the mere loss of unquestioned privilege.
Our current political conflicts, both domestic and international, can therefore be largely attributed to our adherence to these two merging paths—especially if we take into account our destabilized climate and resulting droughts in places like Syria and Somalia, in addition to all the other ways nations and peoples jostle for power and advantage. Climate chaos and the resulting political chaos will be the most notable legacy of Liberal growth and the Power Realism that has begun to cruelly manage it.”
Humans have an inherent conflict between selfish impulses and social impulses. We need a group to survive, but we also have a stake in our own personal survival within the group. It seems to me that religion exists to balance this problem. It tries to ensure that everyone within a group is cared for, but it also offers serious punishment for anyone who endangers the welfare of society as a whole. Without the threat of punishment after death, “he who dies with the most toys” really *would* win. Religion provides a check on people simply hoarding as many resources as possible for their own personal gain, at the expense of society, offering otherworldly rewards as incentive. Modern American society has pretty much given up all pretense of this kind of morality in favor of unbridled greed. (That will be interesting when things start to run out.) Not believing in life after death simply makes selfishness a more obvious choice.
Actually…
I think it’s rule of law that keeps people in line…. the threat of being denied entry at the pearly gates has minimal effect on behaviour
FE, that may be the case now, but I doubt it always was.
What do you think prevents more crime:
– a policeman with a gun and a club + a court and a dungeon
– a priest urging his flock to be kind and wonderful
Going back further what would keep a member of a tribe in line:
– the threat of expulsion from the tribe or perhaps a beating or death sentence for not following the rules
– a witch doctor casing a spell on someone who misbehaves
Great post Sceadu. I agree.
Rapture!
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/NnOUL8u0vrs/hqdefault.jpg
i think i recognise one or two fringe OF worldsters in that rapture picture
Haha that reminded me of a funny video from TheThinking Atheist from a few years back making fun of Harold Camping’s imminent Rapture
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f9KlMWzKj4s
I have been following this blog for about a year. Gail seems to be a voice of reason, maybe even cold logic. Many who leave comments understand just how difficult our predicament is. But, few are optimistic about any strategies that can minimize the impact of these global trends. Is this a blog for people who understand a problem and have given up on any solutions. Even if your on the Titanic does that mean all the lifeboats are going to sink? I guess I haven’t thrown in the towel yet.
I do have a solution. Deny abundance for the general pop and restrict all fossil fuels to the elites. No ambulances, but their private jets must fly.
Who plows the fields for food? How do workers who keep electricity operating get to work? How do the elite eat and cook their food?
The number of people who need to do that is surprisingly small. Shacks can be built to house the workers who will have to live with hardtacks, just like Civil War soldiers.
With much less standard of living, fewer things will be grown and people will adapt to it.
Elites have their manors, where servatns/serfs who are treated a bit better than the general public will grow their food in the ‘organic’ way.
Isn’t that your mother I hear calling?
Moreover the current displacement of low and medium skilled human work by robots is already removing the necessity existence of the bottom strata of the population that will become essnetially economically irrelevant or simply a negative drag due to subsidies.
Then it will not be so difficult to remove them via repression of the probable revolts. It just takes a little step of claiming poverty a personal sin and all the moral objections to the use of violence against them will be removed…
In the end it is not so likely that something like this would happen, but the signs I see makes this scenario more and more likely by the year.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/7d/08/16/7d08163284c138ff30bfc54b2e10f83f.jpg
the Titanic/lifeboat analogy fails when you realise there’s no Carpathia arriving tomorrow morning to pick you up and take you home
Still some people would have escaped, most notoriously the officer who threw empty lifeboat to the sea and forbid poor men from riding them. He escaped with the last of the lifeboats, and because he was a good sailor he would have lived even with no rescue boat.
Some people will be like that. It’s life.
erm
i think you missed my point
He’s just a kid NP, poor little guy..
++++++
Theophilus – you are effectively asking is there a nice way down from Overshoot.
The only possible outcome has to involve
– way less people – to fit a reduced energy budget (and getting everyone to play nice in the transition)
– somehow isolating potential nuclear/nuclear waste issues
Tough ones.
I agree the way ahead looks difficult.
Gail, I know in the past you have included diagrams showing energy (and us) falling off a cliff in a quite sudden decline. Last year, if I am not mistaken, you ‘predicted’ $10 a barrel oil by end of 2016.
Perhaps we all need to appreciate just how difficult it is to know what is going to happen. Yes, we could get a sudden collapse. Or, we could get a very gradual descent with plenty of bumps and collisions along the way — but not necessarily total extinction.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Gail’s analysis is careful and persuasive. But we simply don’t know…..
You are right. Timing is the thing we cannot tell very well. Exactly how long things hold together is uncertain. I always happy when things hang together a little longer. And the shape of the down slope is not certain.
It’s both hilarious and tragic about how the U.S mainstream media and economists are using any excuse, no matter how flimsy, to put lipstick on the U.S economy pig. What sort of weather are we blaming this time round?
Commercial Real Estate Loan Delinquencies Rise Again
http://www.valuewalk.com/2017/05/commercial-real-estate/
I can personally report that here in the Dallas/Ft. Worth area of Texas, there is absolutely no collapse at all. We have benefited from economic migrants, to be sure, but that aside, there are no major signs of collapse.
Maybe a retail outlet or strip mall here or there not doing so well, but otherwise things are normal. Everywhere is full all the time. The houses and apartments are full (and more are being built), the eateries are full, the traffic is booming, the kids are going to school, the people are going to work. The grid is fully functional, never fails. You see people of all types everywhere, including families with kids, participating in the usual Americana (churchgoing, little league games, etc.) All of the systems are operational, 100%.
Also, no major weather events to speak of, other than some hail storms and we’ll see if those become regular or not.
Look I’m just reporting from the on the ground where I am. Everybody’s reports are going to be different.
I saw a full restaurant — therefore the economy must be healthy.
Thanks for the insight
Totally agree, Dolph, as I can report from the San Francisco Bay Area everything is doing just fine here too. No signs whatsoever of collapse. Traffic is heavy, people are filling stores, kids are screaming and laughing, adults are jovial and talking up a storm. Even the mini malls are packed with cars with people going to Home Depot and the other retailers along those strips. In fact, I’d say things have been ramping up for some time now and are charging full tilt. The glass isn’t half full, it’s overflowing – lol.
Florida’s technosphere is humming along as well. Nice trick doubling the US debt whilst elevating the dollar. Mission accomplished.
Another report from the ground…
I live just outside Toronto and I completely agree. Go to any city within an hour of Toronto and all you will see is new condos and apartment buildings going up, new suburb developments, new grocery stores, restaurants and service buildings going up everywhere. No ghost malls around here that I’m aware of…
Good luck getting into a restaurant on the weekend – prices are noticeably higher the last couple years, but the pubs are always full.
I was in Hyderabad, India for a couple weeks last month for work. There too, the growth is absolutely off the charts. The number of new buildings going up in that city is mind boggling. There is a fair bit of noticeable poverty in the city, but everyone seems to have somewhere to be, going about their business, doing what they have to do to get by. Somehow they seem to be able to feed everyone as well. Our facilities there are a bit off the beaten path, in the outer western part of the city in a zone called Erragadda. Things there are a helluva lot different than they are in the western world, but I certainly didn’t observe the level of desperation and despair that I had expected.
I was also in Aruba a couple weeks ago for a friend’s wedding (yes, I’ve been doing my part keeping the Fossil Fuels burning) – if Aruba is any indication, there certainly doesn’t seem to be a lack of money for people to take nice vacations… all the hotels are packed, the beaches are rammed with tourists, the restaurants are expensive as shit but still full. The locals there are doing pretty well for themselves – not a bad place to be, though 100% dependent on tourism.
I have to agree with Bergen and dolph, as far as my personal experience goes, no collapse apparent at all, glass overflowing…
I’m not saying that equates to a healthy economy or really means jack shit in the grand scheme of things… – I know some of you like the reports from the ground, so there’s my two cents.
Of course that is what one would observe — because the global economy is continuing to grow.
CBs continue to pump out massive stimulus…. debt levels are screaming higher… and this is producing ‘growth’
Just like in 2007….
Rural Maritime Canada’s economy is terrible. Nice homes sit for sale for a year or more. We have major population decline. It is absolutely awesome if you enjoy nature and like your elbow room. Were it not for the radiation, humans could make it here.
Dolph-
Bubbles expand until they burst. When the bubble bursts you will know it.
Are the things you are observing based on sustainable growth? Are they the function of growth funded with debt? Is the food be provided in a way that doesn’t deplete the soil from which it is grown? Can the transportation, housing, businesses, being built and operating continue once the non renewable energy sources upon which they depend are depleted? Will that church going little league baseball playing culture continue if people begin to struggle with meeting their most basic needs? Such as Water, Food, Shelter
Collapse by definition is a rapid process. But, the causes of collapse are often unobserved slow moving processes.
Today is a beautiful day! The sun is shining and the birds are singing, but tomorrow is fast approaching.
A Moreon sees a restaurant or a shop with lots of people in it – and interprets that as ‘the economy is booming’
A non-Moreon ignores the fact that a restaurant or a shop appears to be full (because a non-Moreon knows that is meaningless) and instead looks at FACTS:
Foot traffic at chain restaurants in March dropped 3.4% from a year ago.
http://www.businessinsider.com/restaurant-foot-traffic-sales-fall-first-quarter-2017-4?IR=T&r=US&IR=T
US retail sales fell 0.2% in March vs 0.1% drop expected
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/14/us-retail-sales-march-2017.html
Total sales in April fell 4.7% year-over-year to 1.426 million vehicles, according to Autodata; cars sales plunged 11.1% and even truck sales edged down 0.1%.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/02/carmageddon-not-yet-but-hot-air-hisses-out-of-auto-bubble/
And the facts confirm a contraction is occurring. It is not a collapse – yet – collapse is when the electricity goes out – permanently.
Trust me dolph and the rest of you Moreons…. when collapse comes — there will be no uncertainty…
The restaurants will be empty — the malls will be empty …. completely empty.
FE says: “The restaurants will be empty — the malls will be empty …. completely empty.”
Correction FE…they will be full of dead bodies…7.5B bodies are going to be lying everywhere, including restaurants and malls 😉
My bad.
The grill restaurants will be doing a roaring business …. the delicacy will be small fresh child recently butchered grilled over a fire fueled with pieces of wood furniture:
http://l450v.alamy.com/450v/fa70n8/large-beef-t-bone-steak-grilled-on-barbecue-grill-salted-sagardi-restaurant-fa70n8.jpg
LOL, like really LOL……
Same here. I work in the tourism industry in the summer and we are having record numbers so far this season. I don’t think that pointing this out is a denial that collapse lies in the future, but certainly things do not seem terribly dire to the average person. Whether this will unravel slowly or quickly is still to be seen.
It reminds me of the description of how one goes bankrupt. Slowly at first and then all at once.
Dolph you are living in Texas….one of the most vibrant economies in the world. Here is a report from Austin…business and growth booming, however….many “medium cost” restaurants nearly empty. My interpretation…the failing middle class does not eat out as much. People are either eating at cheap chain restaurants, or the upper class eats at high end restaurants. Be thankful for your grid…Tx has its own self contained grid and is upgrading it as we speak.
Here is another fact. The average job opening in Austin gets 5000 applications. What does this mean….LOTS of people need jobs or they want to escape their failing economies elsewhere to come to the Austin economy.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/18/houston-new-car-truck-sales-plunge/
The Houston economy lives and dies based on oil.
It looks like the idea of collapsing oil pricing is beginning to catch on.
“Oil Price Collapse Is ‘Permanent’; Analyst Says Fossil Fuel Has Had Its Day”
https://srsroccoreport.com/oil-price-collapse-is-permanent-analyst-says-fossil-fuel-has-had-its-day/
I read that article yesterday …. it is rubbish
This is more of the “electric vehicles will save us” reasoning behind the price drop.
Interesting comment from Wolf…. it makes no sense to raise interest rates now … but perhaps they Fed feels they have no choice….
Wolf Richter
May 8, 2017 at 3:30 pm
The Fed doesn’t care about consumers. It cares about asset prices (asset price inflation = very high) and consumer price inflation (within Fed range). It wants to make sure real wages don’t rise (under threat). During the financial crisis, it didn’t give a hoot about consumers either. All its policies were geared toward inflating asset prices. This was very explicit. Benanke wasn’t shy about explaining it publicly.
Now asset prices are so high that even the Fed is worrying about them.
So for the moment, the date of the next rate hike is still June 14, with QE starting to be unwound later this year.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/08/consumers-slash-spending-growth-expectations-new-york-fed/
I agree the situation is crazy, If asset prices are inflating, it significantly reduces the chance of default related to that debt. Since a lot of debt is for financing home, farms, and even shares of stock, this may be part of the reasoning. Higher prices help keep the system together. A little inflation, if if goes through to wages as well, helps make prior debt easier to pay. So it is important too. I suppose if the Fed doesn’t really understand energy costs and diminishing returns, it could focus on the parts of the system it sort of understands, and come to a strange conclusion.
if there is so much cheap and plentiful oil out there why are we exploiting the Tar Sands,
the Deep Water Salt plays, the fast depleting Shale plays and the extra heavy Venezuela
plays? Take all of those out of the equation and we’d be on the down side of peak oil.
With them in play we have a slight delay. Euphoria is almost always a temporary state.
Right! Some people haven’t figured out that expensive to extract oil is not nearly as good as cheap, plentiful oil. Those people are called economists.
This is a prime example of the stupidity of humans.
The suggestion of peak oil is met with derision … meanwhile we are resorting to steaming oil out of tar… drilling kms beneath the sea… exploring the arctic … and fracking…
Duh
And setting up Cow Ambulances:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/may/08/cow-ambulances-indias-latest-scheme-to-protect-revered-animal
Right, I gave all those facts to the dumbshit cornucopians at theoildrum ten years ago. As I’ve said numerous times, facts do not trump beliefs. Faith and belief cannot be influenced by logic or truth. FE you’ve proven it yourself many times at OFW, the same people return with their same arguments right in the face of reason, be it the economy (especially inflation and the power of printed money), global warming, renewable energy devices, electric vehicles, infinite resources and technology.
These very same people will not believe their own lying eyes when it goes dark. It will be the fault of the government, corporation, financial institution or their pick of a minority, be it ethnic, racial, religious or cut of ones suit. Blame and scapegoating, you can see it daily in countries that are collapsing and it will gradually escalate.