Citizens seem to be clamoring for shutdowns to prevent the spread of COVID-19. There is one major difficulty, however. Once an economy has been shut down, it is extremely difficult for the economy to recover back to the level it had reached previously. In fact, the longer the shutdown lasts, the more critical the problem is likely to be. China can shut down its economy for two weeks over the Chinese New Year, each year, without much damage. But, if the outage is longer and more widespread, damaging effects are likely.
A major reason why economies around the world will have difficulty restarting is because the world economy was in very poor shape before COVID-19 hit; shutting down major parts of the economy for a time leads to even more people with low wages or without any job. It will be very difficult and time-consuming to replace the failed businesses that provided these jobs.
When an outbreak of COVID-19 hit, epidemiologists recommended social distancing approaches that seemed to be helpful back in 1918-1919. The issue, however, is that the world economy has changed. Social distancing rules have a much more adverse impact on today’s economy than on the economy of 100 years ago.
Governments that wanted to push back found themselves up against a wall of citizen expectations. A common belief, even among economists, was that any shutdown would be short, and the recovery would be V-shaped. False information (really propaganda) published by China tended to reinforce the expectation that shutdowns could truly be helpful. But if we look at the real situation, Chinese workers are finding themselves newly laid off as they attempt to return to work. This is leading to protests in the Hubei area.
My analysis indicates that now, in 2020, the world economy cannot withstand long shutdowns. One very serious problem is the fact that the prices of many commodities (including oil, copper and lithium) will fall far too low for producers, leading to disruption in supplies. Broken supply chains can be expected to lead to the loss of many products previously available. Ultimately, the world economy may be headed for collapse.
In this post, I explain some of the reasons for my concerns.
[1] An economy is a self-organizing system that can grow only under the right conditions. Removing a large number of businesses and the corresponding jobs for an extended shutdown will clearly have a detrimental effect on the economy.
Figure 1. Chart by author, using photo of building toy “Leonardo Sticks,” with notes showing a few types of elements the world economy.
An economy is a self-organizing networked system that grows, under the right circumstances. I have attempted to give an idea of how this happens in Figure 1. This is an image of a child’s building toy. The growth of an economy is somewhat like building a structure with many layers using such a toy.
The precise makeup of the economy is constantly changing. New businesses are formed, and new consumers grow up and take jobs. Governments enact laws, partly to collect taxes, and partly to ensure fair treatment of all. Consumers decide which products to buy based on a combination of factors, including their level of wages, the prices being charged for the available goods, the availability of debt, and the interest rate on that debt. Resources of various kinds are used in producing goods and services.
At the same time, some deletions are taking place. Big businesses buy smaller businesses; some customers die or move away. Products that become obsolete are discontinued. The inside of the dome becomes hollow from the deletions.
If a large number of businesses are closed for an extended period, this will have many adverse impacts on the economy:
- Fewer goods and services, in total, will be made for the economy during the period of the shutdown.
- Many workers will be laid off, either temporarily or permanently. Goods and services will suddenly be less affordable for these former workers. Many will fall behind on their rent and other obligations.
- The laid off workers will be unable to pay much in taxes. In the US, state and local governments will need to cut back the size of their programs to match lower revenue because they cannot borrow to offset the deficit.
- If fewer goods and services are made, demand for commodities will fall. This will push the prices of commodities, such as oil and copper, very low.
- Commodity producers, airlines and the travel industry are likely to head toward permanent contraction, further adding to layoffs.
- Broken supply lines become problems. For example:
- A lack of parts from China has led to the closing of many automobile factories around the world.
- There is not enough cargo capacity on airplanes because much cargo was carried on passenger flights previously, and passenger flights have been cut back.
These adverse impacts become increasingly destabilizing for the economy, the longer the shutdowns go on. It is as if a huge number of deletions are made simultaneously in Figure 1. Temporary margins, such as storage of spare parts in warehouses, can provide only a temporary buffer. The remaining portions of the economy become less and less able to support themselves. If the economy was already in poor shape, the economy may collapse.
[2] The world economy was approaching resource limits even before the coronavirus epidemic appeared. This is not too different a situation than many earlier economies faced before they collapsed. Coronavirus pushes the world economy further toward collapse.
Reaching resource limits is sometimes described as, “The population outgrew the carrying capacity of the land.” The group of people living in the area could not grow enough food and firewood using the resources available at the time (such as arable land, energy from the sun, draft animals, and technology of the day) for their expanding populations.
Collapses have been studied by many researchers. The book Secular Cycles by Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyze eight agricultural economies that collapsed. Figure 2 is a chart I prepared, based on my analysis of the economies described in that book:
Figure 2. Chart by author based on Turchin and Nefedov’s Secular Cycles.
Economies tend to grow for many years before the population becomes high enough that the carrying capacity of the land they occupy is approached. Once the carrying capacity is hit, they enter a stagflation stage, during which population and GDP growth slow. Growing debt becomes an issue, as do both wage and wealth disparity.
Eventually, a crisis period is reached. The problems of the stagflation period become worse (wage and wealth disparity; need for debt by those with inadequate income) during the crisis period. Changes tend to take place during the crisis period that lead to substantial drops in GDP and population. For example, we read about some economies entering into wars during the crisis period in the attempt to gain more land and other resources. We also read about economies being attacked from outside in their weakened state.
Also, during the crisis period, with the high level of wage and wealth disparity, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to collect enough taxes. This problem can lead to governments being overthrown because of unhappiness with high taxes and wage disparity. In some cases, as in the 1991 collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union, the top level government simply collapses, leaving the next lower level of government.
Strangely enough, epidemics also seem to occur within collapse periods. The rising population leads to people living closer to each other, increasing the risk of transmission. People with low wages often find it increasingly difficult to eat an adequate diet. As a result, their immune systems easily succumb to new communicable diseases. Part of the collapse process is often the loss of a significant share of the population to a communicable disease.
Looking back at Figure 2, I believe that the current economic cycle started with the use of fossil fuels back in the 1800s. The world economy hit the stagflation period in the 1970s, when oil supply first became constrained. The Great Recession of 2008-2009 seems to be a marker for the beginning of the crisis period in the current cycle. If I am right in this assessment, the world economy is in the period in which we should expect crises, such as pandemics or wars, to occur.
The world was already pushing up against resource limits before all of the shutdowns took place. The shutdowns can be expected to push the world economy toward a more rapid decline in output per capita. They also appear to increase the likelihood that citizens will try to overthrow their governments, once the quarantine restrictions are removed.
[3] The carrying capacity of the world today is augmented by the world’s energy supply. A major issue since 2014 is that oil prices have been too low for oil producers. The coronavirus problem is pushing oil prices even lower yet.
Strangely enough, the world economy is facing a resource shortage problem, but it manifests itself as low commodity prices and excessive wage and wealth disparity.
Most economists have not figured out that economies are, in physics terms, dissipative structures. These are self-organizing systems that grow, at least for a time. Hurricanes (powered by energy from warm water) and ecosystems (powered by sunlight) are other examples of dissipative structures. Humans are dissipative structures, as well; we are powered by the energy content of foods. Economies require energy for all of the processes that we associate with generating GDP, such as refining metals and transporting goods. Electricity is a form of energy.
Energy can be used to work around shortages of almost any kind of resource. For example, if fresh water is a problem, energy products can be used to build desalination plants. If lack of phosphate rocks is an issue for adequate fertilization, energy products can be used to extract these rocks from less accessible locations. If pollution is a problem, fossil fuels can be used to build so-called renewable energy devices such as wind turbines and solar panels, to try to reduce future CO2 pollution.
The growth in energy consumption correlates quite well with the growth of the world economy. In fact, increases in energy consumption seem to precede growth in GDP, suggesting that it is energy consumption growth that allows the growth of GDP.
Figure 3. World GDP Growth versus Energy Consumption Growth, based on data of 2018 BP Statistical Review of World Energy and GDP data in 2010$ amounts, from the World Bank.
The thing that economists tend to miss is the fact that extracting enough fossil fuels (or commodities of any type) is a two-sided price problem. Prices must be both:
- High enough for companies extracting the resources to make an after tax profit.
- Low enough for consumers to afford finished goods made with these resources.
Most economists believe that an inadequate supply of energy products will be marked by high prices. In fact, the situation seems to be almost “upside down” in a networked economy. Inadequate energy supplies seem to be marked by excessive wage and wealth disparity. This wage and wealth disparity leads to commodity prices that are too low for producers. Current WTI oil prices are about $20 per barrel, for example (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Daily spot price of West Texas Intermediate oil, based on EIA data.
The low-price commodity price issue is really an affordability problem. The many people with low wages cannot afford goods such as cars, homes with heating and air conditioning, and vacation travel. In fact, they may even have difficulty affording food. Spending by rich people does not make up for the shortfall in spending by the poor because the rich tend to spend their wealth differently. They tend to buy services such as tax planning and expensive private college educations for their children. These services require proportionately less commodity use than goods purchased by the poor.
The problem of low commodity prices becomes especially acute in countries that produce commodities for export. Producers find it difficult to pay workers adequate wages to live on. Also, governments are not able to collect enough taxes for the services workers expect, such as public transit. The combination is likely to lead to protests by citizens whenever the opportunity arises. Once shutdowns end, these countries are especially in danger of having their governments overthrown.
[4] There are limits to what governments and central banks can fix.
Governments can give citizens checks so that they have enough funds to buy groceries. This may, indeed, keep the price of food products high enough for food producers. There may still be problems with broken supply lines, so there may still be shortages of some products. For example, if there are eggs but no egg cartons, there may be no eggs for sale in grocery stores.
Central banks can act as buyers for many kinds of assets such as bonds and even shares of stock. In this way, they can perhaps keep stock market prices reasonably high. If enough gimmicks are used, perhaps they can even keep the prices of homes and farms reasonably high.
Central banks can also keep interest rates paid by governments low. In fact, interest rates can even be negative, especially for the short term. Businesses whose profitability has been reduced and workers who have been laid off are likely to discover that their credit ratings have been downgraded. This is likely to lead to higher interest costs for these borrowers, even if interest rates for the most creditworthy are kept low.
One area where governments and central banks seem to be fairly helpless is with respect to low prices for commodities used by industry, such as oil, natural gas, coal, copper and lithium. These commodities are traded internationally, so it is not just their own producers that need to be propped up; the market intervention needs to affect the entire world market.
One approach to raising world commodity prices would be to buy up large quantities of the commodities and store them somewhere. This is impractical, because no one has adequate storage for the huge quantities involved.
Another approach for raising world commodity prices would be to try to raise worldwide demand for finished goods and services. (Making more finished goods and services will use more commodities, and thus will tend to raise commodity prices.) To do this, checks would somehow need to go to the many poor people in the world, including those in India, Bangladesh and Nigeria, allowing these people to buy cars, homes, and other finished goods. Sending out checks only to people in one’s own economy would not be sufficient. It is unlikely that the US or the European Union would undertake a task such as this.
A major problem after many people have been out of work for a quite a while is the fact that many of these people will be behind on their regular payments, such as rent and car payments. They will be in no mood to buy a new vehicle or a new cell phone, simply because they have been offered a check that covers groceries and not much more. They will remain in a mode of cutting back on purchases, not adding more. Demand for most kinds of goods will remain low.
This lack of demand will make it difficult for business to have enough sales to make it profitable to reopen at the level of output that they had previously. Thus, employment and sales are likely to remain depressed even after the economy seems to be reopening. China seems to be having this problem. The Wall Street Journal reports China Is Open for Business, but the Postcoronavirus Reboot Looks Slow and Rocky. It also reports, Another Shortage in China’s Virus-Hit Economy: Jobs for College Grads.
[5] There is a significant likelihood that the COVID-19 problem is not going away, even if economies can “bend the trend line” with respect to new cases.
Bending the trend line has to do with trying to keep hospitals and medical providers from being overwhelmed. It is likely to mean that herd immunity is built up slowly, making repeat outbreaks more likely. Thus, if social isolation is stopped, COVID-19 illnesses can be expected to revisit prior locations. We know that this has been an issue in the past. The Spanish Flu epidemic came in three waves, over the years 1918-1919. The second wave was the most deadly.
A recent study by members of the Harvard School of Public Health says that the COVID-19 epidemic may appear in waves until into 2022. In fact, it could be back on a seasonal basis thereafter. It also indicates that more than one period of social distancing is likely to be required:
“A single period of social distancing will not be sufficient to prevent critical care capacities from being overwhelmed by the COVID-19 epidemic, because under any scenario considered it leaves enough of the population susceptible that a rebound in transmission after the end of the period will lead to an epidemic that exceeds this capacity.”
Thus, even if the COVID-19 problem seems to be fixed in a few weeks, it likely will be back again within a few months. With this level of uncertainty, businesses will not be willing to set up new operations. They will not hire many additional employees. The retired population will not run out and buy more tickets on cruise ships for next year. In fact, citizens are likely to continue to be worried about airplane flights being a place for transmitting illnesses, making the longer term prospects for the airline industry less optimistic.
Conclusion
The economy was already near the edge before COVID-19 hit. Wage and wealth disparity were big problems. Local populations of many areas objected to immigrants, fearing that the added population would reduce job opportunities for people who already lived there, among other things. As a result, many areas were experiencing protests because of unhappiness with the current economic situation.
The shutdowns temporarily cut back the protests, but they certainly do not fix the underlying situations. Instead, the shutdowns add to the number of people with very low wages or no income at all. The shutdowns also reduce the total quantity of goods and services available to purchase, regardless of how much money is added to the system. Many people will end up poorer, in some real sense.
As soon as the shutdowns end, it will be obvious that the world economy is in worse condition than it was before the shutdown. The longer the shutdowns last, the worse shape the world economy will be in. Thus, when businesses are restarted, we can expect even more protests and more divisive politics. Some governments may be overthrown, or they may collapse without being pushed. I fear that the world economy will be further down the road toward overall collapse.
continuing the Italian theme, the amazing Berlioz:
Norman and other doubters of the one … the only … the Master of the Universe…. Faassstttttt…. E…dddddyyyyyyy…
To your knees the lot of you:
http://www.okmoviequotes.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/201-Waynes-World-2-quotes.gif
All Hail the King of Kings… the Messiah to end all Messiahs…. the Prophet of Prophets… the Seer of Seers…
Dig deep inside your heart and ask – are you worthy? ARE YOU WORTHY?????
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/05/fc/73/05fc73800a56930ad57c112563eed739.gif
https://bloorlansdownechristianfellowship.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/lord-jesus-animated.gif
I forgot to mention … the Giver of Light….
https://66.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lf2ccxzScT1qg39ewo1_500.gif
FE… Flat Earther…
a coincidence?
of course not…
the hidden code is revealed…
thanks for the reediculous entertainment…
we need it in these tough times… 😉
I have seen no evidence of that… but if you have any I am here to evaluate it … please post
FE = GOD
“Beyond Low Earth Orbit, space radi..ation may place astr.nauts at signi.ficant risk for ra..diation sickn.ess, and increased lifet..ime risk for ca..ncer, central ner..vous system effects, and degen..erative diseases,” NASA writes on its website.
“Research studies of exposure in various doses and strengths of rad…iation provide strong evidence that canc.er and deg..enerative diseases are to be expected from exposures to gala.ctic cosmic rays (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE).”
https://www.inverse.com/article/42407-elon-musk-space-radiation-worse-than-we-thought
Maybe aliens placed the van allen belt like a electronic dog fence.
If there was a 95% chance I’d either get Can.cer or d.ie on the journey back from Mars, but offered the opportunity to go anyway, I’d go..
I am not alone.. neither are we….
To be first, beam me up Scotty….
yes, that is entirely sensible…
I’d accept a 100% chance of cancer to go to the moon…
FE is suffering quarantinea freetimea. Too much free time during quarantine and spending a lot of time researching conspiracy theories (which may eventually be conspiracy facts)
Actually … I had investigated the moon thing many months ago … as I said — we were watching that Apollo movie (which was rather dull)… and looking at the actual footage of the gear they used and thinking…. that stuff looks like something that someone made in their garage (or on a 1960’s Hollywood movie set)…
The term itself is very powerful…. it can be applied in so many ways… as we know humans are st..oooo…pid mor eons… if you want them to dismiss something you simply have the MSM label it a conspiracy theory … mock people … and the lemmings will jump on board..
Notice the reaction when I posted FACTS that prove we have never been past low orbit (NASA itself admits it)…. if people were not st u ppppi d lemmings… they would have reacted with ‘hey FE you are onto something here… ‘
But nope – I am crazy — right Norman and others?????
If the MSM does not label something a conspiracy theory then the humans are more than willing to question something… for instance… we have been told that eating fat makes you fat… that is total bu.ll sh.iiit…. Eating carbs including whole grain bread, pasta, sugar, sweets, desserts, etc… make you fat…
If you wonder why you are ‘eating the right foods’ (lots of grains etc…) but can’t lose weight no matter how much you exercise — then now you know.
Am I crazy for stating that? I doubt anyone would state that … cuz nobody has labelled this a conspiracy theory….
(I highly recommend this to those of you battle with disease and obesity…
it can change your life… https://www.amazon.com/Go-Wild-Free-Afflictions-Civilization-ebook/dp/B00FPQA66C)
CIA Popularized “Conspiracy Theory” Term to Silence Dissent
https://www.filmsforaction.org/watch/conspiracy-to-tell-the-truth-interview-with-lance-dehavensmith/
http://www.whale.to/c/10945770_444562359024544_3382311960770456693_n.jpg
The Hits Just Keep on Coming!!!!
No wonder the Space Shuttle is not built to go beyond Low Earth Orbit….. it is NOT possible to go any further.
NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!! NASA ADMITS IT!!!
“Beyond Low Earth Orbit, space radiation may place astronauts at significant risk for radiation sickness, and increased lifetime risk for cancer, central nervous system effects, and degenerative diseases,” NASA writes on its website.
“Research studies of exposure in various doses and strengths of radiation provide strong evidence that cancer and degenerative diseases are to be expected from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE).”
https://www.inverse.com/article/42407-elon-musk-space-radiation-worse-than-we-thought
Do you really think someone aspiring for being first man on the moon cares very much about developing cancer later?
Even olympic athletes dont care much about the future.
thank you, DJ…
yes, discounting the future…
You need to read more carefully:
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has now given four presentations about his company’s Starship rocket, but all of those updates mostly focused on the vehicle’s external stats.
Musk has barely touched on the technologies needed to keep people alive and healthy while on Starship — technologies that need to be developed relatively soon if the spacecraft has any hope of carrying people to deep-space destinations like the Moon and Mars in the near future.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation
READ IT:
‘technologies that need to be developed relatively soon if the spacecraft has any hope of carrying people to deep-space destinations like the Moon and Mars in the near future’
If you still don’t get it let me HELP YOU:
= we do not have the technologies to go beyond low orbit.
http://www.prosebeforehos.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/kanyes-facts-change-quote.png
Ever seen a donkey encounter a wall? Instead of trying to go around it, the donkey will stand with its head against the wall until it starves to death.
Surely we are better than this
https://youtu.be/Ap0BZKlG5QY
Just say it….
I promise not to rub it in … why would I? That would be like you playing goal against Ronaldo … and him mocking you after scoring on 100 out of 100 penalty shots….
https://img0.etsystatic.com/059/0/8118643/il_570xN.716397500_ezg0.jpg
FE you get a dose of radiation going through the Van Allen Belt you also get a dose taking an MRI. No biggy.
The health threats from cosmic rays is the danger posed by galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar energetic particles to astronauts on interplanetary missions or any missions that venture through the Van-Allen Belts or outside the Earth’s magnetosphere.[1][2]
They are one of the greatest barriers standing in the way of plans for interplanetary travel by crewed spacecraft,[3][4][5] but space radiation health risks also occur for missions in low Earth orbit such as the International Space Station (ISS).[6]
The radiation environment of deep space is different from that on the Earth’s surface or in low Earth orbit, due to the much larger flux of high-energy galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), along with radiation from solar proton events (SPEs) and the radiation belts.
Enjoy the rest:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Health_threat_from_cosmic_rays
Oh Wow. I just discovered this thing called google and now my IQ has broken through the 500 level…. I am approaching omnipotence… if I can just work out how to get past the cosmic radiation then I will be……. GOD!
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has now given four presentations about his company’s Starship rocket, but all of those updates mostly focused on the vehicle’s external stats.
Musk has barely touched on the technologies needed to keep people alive and healthy while on Starship — technologies that need to be developed relatively soon if the spacecraft has any hope of carrying people to deep-space destinations like the Moon and Mars in the near future.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation
Let me read that again …. ‘technologies that need to be developed relatively soon if the spacecraft has any hope of carrying people to deep-space destinations like the Moon’
but… But… BUT…. we have BEEN to the Foooking moon!!!
“… but space radiation health risks also occur for missions in low Earth orbit such as the International Space Station (ISS).”
the ISS is fake…
no way that humans can live in a little metal box floating up there…
IF it’s up there…
why hasn’t it fallen down yet?
it’s metal! heavier than air!
huh?
Did I not mention that I took my IQ from 200 to 500 using a simple tool?
Let me help you so you don’t waste the time of God. It’s called google.
Type in ‘is the space station in low orbit’
The International Space Station (ISS) is a space station (habitable artificial satellite) in low Earth orbit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Space_Station
Now you try… there’s lots more where that came from.
I am sure you can do it!!!
but that’s just stuff on the internet…
the ISS is fake…
have you ever been there?
huh?
by the way, what does Wikipedia say about moon landings?
take a look… I’m sure you can do it!
and why do you believe them for one but not the other?
huh?
Radiation is made up to scare the masses, it doesn’t exist.
Humpty Dumpty (modern civilization) sat on a wall (a complex system working)
Humpty Dumpty had a great fall (covid19, peak oil, LTG)
All the kings horses and all the kings men (CBs, economists, printing money etc)
Couldn’t put Humpty together again.. (no explanation needed)
There is nothing new under the sun…
Except death for all of us….that’s pretty new… 😉
Q. Can the Space Shuttle fly to the Moon?
A. No, the Space Shuttle is designed to travel in low-Earth orbit (within a few hundred miles of the Earth’s surface). It does not carry enough propellant to leave Earth’s orbit and travel to the Moon. The Space Shuttle also is not designed to land on the Moon since it lands like an airplane and the Moon has no atmosphere. The Shuttle could be used to carry pieces of Moon or Mars vehicles to low-Earth orbit, where they could be assembled prior to beginning their mission.
https://www.nasa.gov/centers/kennedy/about/information/shuttle_faq.html#15
Rather interesting that since the ‘moon landings’ we have never again come close… not only that.. but our space vehicles are not capable of going beyond low-earth orbit…
As NASA ADMITS, that is because we currently do not have a space vehicle that can protect astronauts from the radiation in the Van Allen Belts…. but they are working on it!!!
Hang the Foook on …. why don’t they just look at the drawings that the Apollo Missions used to make their ‘radiation safe’ space ships??????
Listen to Kelly Smith – NASA Engineer — discuss how he is involved in the building of the Orion Space Capsule….. a capsule that can survive a trip out of low earth orbit and through the Van Allen Belts.
“As we get further away from Earth, we’ll pass through the Van Allen Belts, an area of DANGEROUS radiation”
https://youtu.be/B3qClCOQyQk
Interesting but tangential afterall.
if you want some of the real direct clinchers, look for example at the Apollo module footage where they hide low orbit Earth’s reflection shine through windows with putting up dark transparencies. Simply kindergarten style fakery of at least one such mission beyond any doubt, humanoids simply like to be taken for a ride.. in various feel good fairy tales.. And by the way adding insult on top of it this piece was found while digging in archives by a “teenager” from NZ.. if i recall it correctly.
NASA: There are radiation belts surrounding the Earth.
Moon-hoax nuts: We believe you.
NASA: And we’ve figured out how to deal with them.
Moon-hoax nuts: LIARS!
At least many of the “moon hoax nuts” own a comb. 🙂
thank you, MC…
we must always remember that FE is Flat Earther…
entertainment comes in various forms…
The 3 best arguments for the Flat Earth:
1. Well it looks flat
2. 4 out of 5 religions agree (depending on how one interprets their sacred texts)
3. Research it for yourself…by watching YouTube videos!
The 3 best arguments for the Fake Moonlandings:
1. but it’s so far away
2. 4 out of 5 con spear asea websites agree
3. ditto…
In a way this is great news for you, when otherwise seemingly reasonable person can’t push himself into basic impartial evaluation of available data on supposedly controversial subject, that means the ultimate collapse is still way from us..
Because as per the definition above at the point of collapse everybody will either know about it – internalize – acknowledge it, or at least doesn’t get into defensive fetal position of denial because of it..
As I saying
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has now given four presentations about his company’s Starship rocket, but all of those updates mostly focused on the vehicle’s external stats. Musk has barely touched on the technologies needed to keep people alive and healthy while on Starship — technologies that need to be developed relatively soon if the spacecraft has any hope of carrying people to deep-space destinations like the Moon and Mars in the near future.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation
“Beyond Low Earth Orbit, space radiation may place astronauts at significant risk for radiation sickness, and increased lifetime risk for cancer, central nervous system effects, and degenerative diseases,” NASA writes on its website. “Research studies of exposure in various doses and strengths of radiation provide strong evidence that cancer and degenerative diseases are to be expected from exposures to galactic cosmic rays (GCR) or solar particle events (SPE).”
https://www.inverse.com/article/42407-elon-musk-space-radiation-worse-than-we-thought
The bottom line issue is you can’t just cherry pick nice clean collapse out of context, you have to acknowledge the overall reality incl. all the accumulated dirt: wars, political assassinations domestic and foreign, looting of the gov coffers, destruction of civil liberties, and also these spectacular yet ultimately silly psyops.. among other things, ..
My recipe for a Van Allen Belt:
2 parts Russian vodka
2 parts American bourbon
3 parts radioactive cosmic dust.
Shake well with cracked ice, and serve with a small moon rock on an umbrella stick.
Which moon rock, the common Earth basalt type or meteorite (of the late 1960s) or the completely different isotopes type “discovered” on 2000s impact missions?
That tends to have profound effect on the final taste of the drink, just saying..
Good question! I would prefer Antarctic moon rock, and the same expedition could also bring back Antarctic ice. By the way, given how long it takes for moon rocks to migrate to Earth, it isn’t surprising that heir isotopic composition is different: they have been exposed to a different type of hard radiation.
I climbed up the cliff near our house today and busted off a few sacks of rock…
I’m gonna book a table at the Saturday market in town and put up a sign ‘M.oon Rock for Sale – Get your Authentic Mo.on Rock NASA certified Mo.on Rock!!!’
https://docnz.files.wordpress.com/2018/02/oneshot-provided-image-miz-watanabe_photonewzealand.jpg
Wait till the precursor chemicals for pesticides have supply problems.
would that not also apply to fertilizers?
Now that we have established the lunar landing was a fake (and was a key lynchpin in creating the fake meme that humans can do anything…. )
Let’s switch channels to another all-time favourite… but with a slight revision.
Let’s talk about The El Ders (of Zeyeon)
One of the key tenets of the pro-to-cols is that when you establish the global empire… you should NEVER reveal yourself. Stay in the shadows… Never acknowledge your absolute power.
Let’s revisit – The Deep State Hiding in Plain Sight
https://www.pbs.org/video/moyers-company-deep-state-hiding-plain-sight/
Now think about this … who is actually hiding in plain site?
Well… here are some very powerful people hiding in very plain site – check the surnames
http://hugequestions.com/Eric/TFC/FromOthers/list-of-neocons-for-Iraq-war.htm
Another very powerful group is also hiding in plain site … Noam Chomsky explains –
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/israel-us-elections-intervention-russia-noam-chomsky-donald-trump-a8470481.html
You know how I realized how powerful these seemingly innocuous people were? I was threatened by one of them… one of the head fellas at Disney threatened to destroy a business that I am involved in .. and you know what — I had no doubt it… it was not up for discussion — do as he demanded — or that’s the end of the business..
What immense power!!!! Just like that — poof — and it’s gone.
As has been stated the Deep State is NOT the real power. They are the grocery clerks for the El ders…
I do like the title of that PBS expose though — the E l Ders certainly have a sense of humour… they are the ones hiding in plain site… every POTUS kowtows to them like a bit ch… EVERY SINGLE ONE.
As do all politicians. And business leaders
Henry Ford dared to oppose them — he changed his tune rather quickly (wanna bet he got the same call that I did?)
The often forgotten element to such large realignments of history is that self evident understanding of the real situation (incl. various passing era key “psyops” and “folklore of the day”) is increasing exponentially only at the “highest hour” when the legacy system is about the collapse or metamorphose hard into new reality.
Specifically, nobody is going to be offended anymore by past follies of mankind such as “mere” orbital flight passengers, pyroclastic cloud “office fires” bringing down steel structures, or fiat-credit banking schemes with insane leverages..
They say that people who believe one conspiracy theory are likely to believe others.
Here’s my conspiracy theory: What if all of these other theories are wrong–lies, even? What if astronauts did go to the moon, the Protocols are a forgery, Lee Harvey Oswald killed JFK, etc.?
(mind blown)
So, which Disney exec was it, and what was the threat? To shut down your business?
Before you start screaming like all the other tweeters who didn’t read the news item: No, the dairy farmers cannot donate it because it’s raw milk. And no, they can’t make it into cheese because that’s one of the things the dairy plant does with it, and the plants are full. They can’t ship it to somewhere else because raw milk is perishable. Also, the plants are paying the dairy farmers for this raw milk. They, of course, have contracts with the farmers and this milk was already paid for before the virus caused demand to tank. Also, if you stop milking cows, they stop producing milk.
https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1246130593873760258
https://www.reddit.com/r/WTF/comments/31yzxt/nazi_woman_has_her_feet_washed_with_milk_by_maid/
Nazi version of a fun date? 🙂
Sooo sick! There are things are won’t regret about mankind when it will be all over with us.
https://external-preview.redd.it/bfhDtkOv3ZHHNnCK0t6upj0bcP2E15Fh6ebnEkFuFNM.jpg?auto=webp&s=b69df2ea592891ae21443b846cf0a1b0cb87483f
Complexity in society includes bureaucracy and most of the time, they are overdoing it. Just because you have the means and FF to do it, you have to do it. Just like the case of the raw milk. All over the world in developing countries and since the days of the agrarian society, humans have been drinking raw milk.
There is a blowback for all the food wasted because of these needless complexity. We think we are smart but eventually we will succumb to our “smartness”
Invariably, once an innovation in organisation and technology has occurred, it has to be adopted even if the earlier model worked quite well for thousands, even tens of thousands of years.
Those who do not adopt such ‘advances’ find themselves comparatively impoverished in a
new world, and usually enslaved and conquered by those who have done so, or even exterminated.
This happens even at a primitive level: the cattle herders proved too strong for the hunter-gatherers, the farmers too strong for the herders.
Herders and farmers then had to adopt more complex societies, and organize for war with armies, international trade, and so on.
There is a terrible fatality about this process.
In the 19th-century those who understood it were excited about the future, they thought it would bring wonders and great wealth and, incredible as it seems now, world peace.
In a way it did, even if the wonders have eluded the majority of the world’s population, sand vast numbers of people live untouched by war when their ancestors suffered regularly, but with a terrible fall now opening up ahead of us…..
The other problem, is that if cows don’t get milked – they suffer (unless there are calves).
The biological oxygen demand and chemical oxygen demand of milk is huge, higher than raw sewage. This simply wreaks the waterways it gets into completely.
I don’t know what to make of this data released in portugal. It seems a bit bizarre, like many other things about this covid-19.
(It’s a google translation, I hope it’s comprehensible.)
“Demand for emergency services in hospitals is decreasing substantially. In March, emergency room visits decreased by 45% overall. But it was not just the low or non-urgent patients who disappeared from these services. There was also a significant reduction in the number of patients in whom the use of urgencies is justified: those who are screened with yellow (urgent) and orange (very urgent) bracelets. [..]
These are the conclusions of a study released by a group of researchers from the National School of Public Health (ENSP) at Universidade Nova de Lisboa this Friday. The researchers analyzed the demand for hospital urgency / emergency services in March, the first month of response to covid-19 in Portugal, comparing it with the average of the historical series of emergency episodes between 2014 and 2019. […]
Part of this reduction is natural, because there are fewer road and work accidents, flu and colds with minor symptoms. But the decrease is too significant to be explained for these reasons alone. “There is a sudden phenomenon here that clearly influences the use of emergency services. People have no confidence and are afraid of being infected”, (…) observes Rui Santana, deputy director of the National School of Public Health.[…]
Last March […]there were about 120 000 episodes of urgency sorted as yellow, when the expected total, considering the averages since 2014, would be double; and patients sorted as orange were 31 000, against the expected 53 000. “These are patients who have disappeared from the emergency room. Where are the strokes and the heart attacks?” asks Rui Santana.
https://www.publico.pt/2020/04/03/sociedade/noticia/procura-urgencias-caiu-45-onde-estao-enfartes-avc-perguntam-investigadores-1910910
This issue is occurring in the US as well.
According to a WSJ article, Hospitals, Doctors Feel Financial Squeeze as Coronavirus Sweeps U.S.
I have read articles in medical periodicals about this. This attempted switch to handing coronaviruses is killing hospitals and medical practices. Other patients don’t want to be around them, so won’t come. They certainly don’t want elective surgery, so they won’t come.
Cascading calamities. Will we be able to put Humpty together again?
‘Amid a pandemic that has sickened thousands in the U.S.’
Thousands. Not tens of thousands, nor hundreds of thousands. And what is the population of the U.S.? 327 million, approximately. This is the tail wagging the dog, an elephant afraid of a mouse. There must be an elegant phrase that captures the pathos of this.
It’s understandable that with the fear of covid-19 people only go to hospitals when they really have no other option. What puzzles me in the numbers stated in the article is that the attendance in emergency cases of serious conditions (yellow and orange cases) has also decreased dramatically: according to the article, in an average March the emergency rooms would see 293 000 people, but last month they saw 151 000. OK the country is in lockdown so there’s much less work and road accidents. But these are on average 20 000 per month. How to explain the huge gap? Or, as the study’s spokesman says: where are the heart attacks and strokes? It’s a bit puzzling.
The financial aspect is not very relevant in Portugal because here the overwhelming majority of medical acts are practiced in public hospitals. The excpetions are mostly dentistry, ophtalmology and cosmetic surgery, and these sure are being badly affected. In fact, the activity of dental medicine, stomatology and dentistry, with the exception of situations that are urgently urgent and cannot be postponed, are suspended in the country.
Many of the emergency cases are not really true emergencies. When you are forced to stay at home, you tend to be safer than working or going outside.
Welfear criminale from mafia
The mafia is organizing to make micro loans to the indebted families of Southern Italy
Maybe they can be of help!
Ooh not necessarily adverse to that power structure but will pass on that loan. They take default real personal. On the other hand communities with suppressed power structures may fare far better post collapse as some order may well be maintained as the suppression ends the power structure can assume control. Especially one that shares religious historical cultural and ethnic characteristics with the community in which it exists.
More supply-chain issues affecting other plagues.
https://twitter.com/AJEnglish/status/1246192134593687552
Yes, we at OFW have been waiting years for another catastrophe, then half a dozen turn up at once. Next the ay-lee-ens will be landing, but probably just to ask us if we have any spare toilet rolls.
As for all those destroyed crops in East Africa, what is this going to do to world food prices – even for us lucky Westerners?
For one thing even the token humanitarian aid bound for Africa will eat into affluent countries poor harvest situation eventually.. Not good..
People don’t stop to think through what the effect of flight restrictions will be.
People in every country of the world (practically) have COVID-19. All the reduction in flights stop is the dispersion of the virus inside the airplane.
USA doctors conditioned by “standard of care” lawsuits that is reflected their training have no innovation skills.
Dr Kyle-Sidell suggest the vents may be killing people!!!!!
Cuomo is having his troops take vents from NYS north of NYC and bring them to NYC. He thinks he is killing repub and saving Dems.. I think he is doing just the opposite. hummm….
‘Dr Kyle-Sidell suggest the vents may be killing people’
Vents = ventilators (for lungs)
if you need a vent, you already have one foot out the door, so to speak.
yes 85% exit vent by death
during the second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu, we heard that young, apparently healthy adults were dying from “cytokine storms”. now, there are cases of similar young adults dying of what appears to be an acute respiratory infection, or the body’s extreme response to the infection. is it the same thing, or is this virus different?
Yes, a virus any strong virus can cause the immune system to over react (I am not a biologist and do not know what causes some to drive a body to over react and some do not). The over reaction, the cytokine storm, is the bodies immune system attacking, attacking every thing in sight including ones own body. That ends with death.
My friend who is on immune system blockers for his auto-immune disease was told by his rheumatologist to stay on the drug and not worry auto it making him more likely to contract CV19 as it will protect him from the cytokine storm “and make it just a flu”. The rheumatologist did not say the part in quotes that was my inflammatory addition.
It attacks the ACE2 receptor.
The 1918 was a type A H1 N1 flu.
Quite different.
One foot and four toes, in reality…….
But ventilators are part of our technological fetish.
If you survive the vent you better like video games and meals on wheels.
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/clinical-care/medical-worker-describes-terrifying-lung-failure-covid-19-%E2%80%94-even-his-young-patients
So a doctor is saying they dont have a treatment and are damaging patients. Why would anyone want to go to a hospital for cv19?
So the doctor says that the people on ventilators really need oxygen, not the pressure. The protocols chosen based on experience with other diseases don’t work for COVID-19. Somehow this message needs to get back to doctors.
A big reason for the current death rate (whatever it is) is that we really don’t understand what does and doesn’t work.
Delayering is not a trickle-down process.
https://twitter.com/SafetyPinDaily/status/1246163069799145472
Just kill me know. . .
That’s not approved yet. Wait five years.
If I’m not mistaken some people already ran the numbers on “worms farming” and the overall calculation (and overall inputs) is not that much beneficial over other methods of farming. Moreover, if there is a joint pitch by [The Guardian and the EU] you can with 99% probability just guesstimate it’s a very stuupid plan / topic to begin with..
Well, the marketing people have their work cut out for them…
Well, we were talking about the butterfly effect. Would you eat a butterfly? I’ve eaten a butterfly cake, for sure. In fact, I used to collect butterflies. Some people prefer to collect Madam Butterfly’s. Don’t believe me? Watch!
I just wanted to add an unnoticed issue about Central Bank issued Digital Currency. As fas as I understand that was mentioned in the debate about the 2 Trillion Bill last week.
@Gail, Could it not be possible to decouple the “John D.” from the financial world with a token money issued? No inflation from Helicopter money? Could that lead to a token contolled command economy? etc..
@Tango Oskar, I would appreciate your wisdom on this issue.
When we talk about the closed borders in the EU and the Euopean Union in distress, a breakup and subsequent monetary reform would be a good moment now (besides destroying global trust in the Euro with Russia also suffering from it)
Or would you back off from commenting on this issue being too hot or too near to Conspiracy theory
google Digital Dollar and H.R. 6321
I saw that they tried passing something or included some legislation recently about a digital dollar. Does it really solve any of our problems though? Debatable. It doesn’t solve the core issues but it would speed up how fast money changes hands. It would allow the Federal Reserve to instantly create digital dollars into an account. So it would speed up the velocity of money in terms of tax returns and stimulus like they just passed recently. That’s the biggest change and maybe right now it is an important one.
I’m going to get $3,900 which that bill passed like 10 days ago and they’re saying it should be deposited sometime after the 13th. So it takes them about 3-4 weeks or so from the time the bill passes to the time it hits my bank account, if nothing goes wrong. The digital dollar could do away with that in that they pass a bill and the next day it hits my account or even hours later. I would be able to spend it instantly. For people like me with more money than I know what to do with, it makes absolutely no difference. For people who needed to pay the rent 2 days ago, it would make all the difference in the world.
So if the Federal Reserve were so inclined or a future helicopter money scenario is passed, which seems likely, passing a digital dollar would allow them to just virtually pay me each week, say $500 or whatever. Well as long as this virus is circulating it would allow people to keep paying rents, mortgages, and buying groceries or whatever they’re spending it on very fast. This could have the impact of slowing or preventing some lenders from going bankrupt, possibly making is so that some banks don’t need a bailout.
Obviously there are drawbacks to something like this, hyperinflation comes to mind or who eventually pays for this (taxpayers?). And if the United States does this other countries would quickly follow suit, which then brings up the question of if we’re all just getting paid to hide in our houses why do any of us bother with jobs anymore? This all is going to end badly, one way or another. Perhaps digital dollars would speed up the end game or maybe they’d provide an extra year of semi business as usual before a harder collapse? It’s tough to say but it looks likely that we’re going to find out soon.
I know that there are a lot of people who are not very digitally connected. They tend to be elderly or poor. It is hard to define a solution that affects only some of the population.
If we lose electricity, digital currency will disappear. It is not a very sustainable solution.
I agree about the electricity part, heck that would wipe out most bank accounts these days. It is definitely not a long term solution, I just think it could potentially be used as a tool to speed up electronic money transfers. Most people I know in their 50’s or younger would have no problem using this. And folks that are 60+ could just take it to their kids and it could almost work like Paypal. Boom you got the money showing up in your account 30 seconds later. You could even do instant transactions that way. I bought a car via Paypal in person once and it was an instantaneous $8,500 transaction and I drove away with a car. Technology and complexity are a beautiful double edged sword.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/putin-responds-trump-oil-gambit-10mm-production-cut-possible-us-needs-join
https://youtu.be/6IYeBA6l_y0
We shall see – Who wants to get it will be jawboned to death like the China Trade deal to only end up being a fart in the wind.
The problem that both Putin and Trump fail to realize is that people with NO jobs won’t be able to afford higher prices at the pump. All it will do is lower demand even further.
https://www.enidnews.com/oklahoma/in-letter-to-trump-gov-stitt-urges-sanctions-against-russia-and-saudia-arabia-for-oil/article_7a98460e-75b9-11ea-be25-b3cbe90e73a4.html
The big issue in Oklahoma (and many other places):
Oklahoma? What about Texas! Everything is bigger in Texas!!!
Nope, they definitively work with demand destruction in their pricing models, if they expect for top scenario real depression era levels of contraction for immediate future is another matter though..
The amount of oil that the world requires now leads to a requirement of more than double the 10 million barrel a day cut in oil production. But as Rodster says below, the lower pumping and higher prices will bring down demand even further.
“more than double” I agree…
“Meanwhile, as noted earlier, even a 10MMb/d cut is woefully inadequate to restore price stability, because in a world where there is 26mmb/d less demand, cutting supply by 10mmb/d simply means that oil storage capacity will be hit about 30% slower.”
Putin would be “comfortable” with $42 oil…
well then, he will be uncomfortable for the rest of his life…
that 26 mmb/d less demand will be even bigger, the storage will be at full capacity soon, and prices will plunge again…
Is it just coïncidence that this global pandemic occurs at the same time as peakoil?
World oilproduction stopped growing in 2019 and was set to shrink in the coming years. And miraculously a new dangerous virus comes up to bring the world economy to a grinding halt….
Interesting times…
What we are hitting is limits to growth, which is related to resource limits. Pandemics and low prices for oil both go with limits to growth, so it is not a coincidence.
What’s even worse is that this pandemic although I’m of the belief it’s nowhere as bad as the media makes it out to be came during the Peak Oil period. Conventional Oil and Shale producers need much higher prices to stay in business.
With everything shutting down, oil demand is really low which leads to much lower prices. In my area of SW Florida it’s already at $1.90 and it has dropped 12 cents in the last 2 days. Even when the all clear is given, how many will be able to fill up their cars and SUV’s with no jobs? That will lead to even lower prices until we could see a gallon of gas sell for 50 cents. That’s catastrophic for the oil and shale producers.
Low prices are very relative phenomenon, In Europe gasoline prices barely nudged ~15% so far, most likely because of the elevated tax component and import dependency (fixed contract)..
This is what happens when the government uses gasoline prices to collect taxes. When bad times hit, people don’t get the benefit of the lower gasoline prices. Instead, governments get lower tax revenue. So the government come out behind in the current situation, more so than they would with some other tax schemes.
Hi Gail,
Why would this pandemic go with the limits to growths? I don’t understand. It seems that the virus migrated from the bat to human maybe through the pangolin. The fact that we grow and expand further and further into territories of wild beasts enables more contacts with their viruses (what happened with HIV and Ebola) . There is also a pangolin trafic from Africa to China because of the increasing demand.
So I would say that this pandemic goes with our growth. Which has, as we know thanks to you, in fact stopped…recently.
The pandemic also goes with our interconnected world, since the intercontinental travels enabled the virus to spread worldwide so fast. On this document from a conference (in French) page 13 there are two maps in parallel showing the clusters of the disease and the intensity of air travels :
https://www.college-de-france.fr/media/philippe-sansonetti/UPL1414529259917354829_Covid_19_Sansonetti.pdf
So why do you say it goes with the limits to growth? Wouldn’t it be the same if we had been in full blooming growth, or do you think like some FE and others that it’s is man made to orchestrate the collapse?
If the economy were growing rapidly, the virus would be just a little bump in the road. We would not have the current absurd over-response to the virus, with governments locking down their populations. There would not be shutdowns everywhere. We would already be fairly spread out, so there would be no need of trying to keep people farther apart.
We would be busy rolling out solutions to the problem. Pills already in use, especially. Right now, we have India shutting down. That will make it virtually impossible to keep up our supply of generic drugs to take care of the virus.
https://en.as.com/en/2020/04/04/other_sports/1585963017_478782.html
Ivermectin slashes coronavirus viral load in vitro
Ivermectin is inexpensive and has been in use since the 1980s. There are other drugs too.
It is our response, based on our belief that we can fix every problem without understanding how the system works, that is our downfall. It is our overconfidence that is likely to bring the end of civilization.
Thanks for your answer. Yes we experiment treatments. In Marseille, France, a Professor, Dr Raoult, also got apparently postitive results, not in vitro, but on ill people, with two molecules, the famous chloroquine plus an antibiotic. It became a big debate, not only scientific, but everywhere on MSM and social media. As he didn’t follow a standard protocol (his purpose was to cure and not to do research), medical authorities say it’s to early to make conclusions and validate and deploy the treatment. But, as our president said we are in a state of war, shouldn’t we take special measures?
I understand your last statement on how overconfident we are and how we don’t apprehend how the whole system work, so we believe we can start it all over when the epidemic is over. It would probably be difficult but doable, with some casualties, if we were far from the LTG, but at the point we stand, God help us.
I guess the politics need to deny, to the people, and to themselves, what the situation is. Till the very end.
Major powers stepped up biologic / genetic manipulation warfare in recent decade, and various SARS category viruses (incl this one) were important part of that effort. That’s just what open, public sources in the medical filed are saying. So, reality will be much more dire..
In the end, it doesn’t matter much was this particular outbreak US or Chinese lab blowback or something more sinister at play.
The bottom line remains, humanoids yet again overstepped another “forbidden” boundary to self inflicted road to destruction.
“Is it just coïncidence that this global pandemic occurs at the same time as peakoil?”
is it just coincidence that this global pandemic occurs at the same time as highest world population?
and highest global travel?
no, of course not…
ps: world population is still growing at about +200,000 per day… the virus would have a lot of work to do to increase daily deaths by that much…
but the ongoing massive global depression may be able to pull it off… and the virus will help a little…
our leaders have just about guaranteed that the virus and the depression will work together to lower population in the coming years…
A bigger coincidence… that a pandemic occurs just as:
– shale oil was hitting a wall
– German industrial numbers were plumbing GFC depths for months
– China was hitting a wall
– Global auto sales were hitting a wall
Tim’s video + the above appears to point us back to the Controlled Demolition theory.
One might be tempted to think the El ders have another trick up their sleeves and that this virus is a ploy to yet again extend BAU…. I am thinking not… I am thinking this the final act — doesn’t matter if the Wuhan is real or fake or half of both …
It has stopped the riots. It has brought families home to be together for the end of days (not unexpected). The final piece to the puzzle will be to resurrect Jim Jones to deliver Fentanyl to the masses….. or perhaps every nuclear power hits the button at the same time we all get incinerated….
Bill Withers passed away today. What a beautiful song is this one!
Yes simpler times MM, at least for us in the West…don’t know how it was for you guys behind the Iron Curtain though….
“…kick at the darkness
until it bleeds daylight …”
— Bruce Cockburn, Lovers In A Dangerous Time
Great son DI!!
From Wikipedia:
“According to Cockburn, the song was inspired by seeing teenagers expressing romantic love in a schoolyard. In the song, he contrasts the hopefulness and joy of new love with the despair of a wider Cold War world where notions of the future often carried a sense of foreboding and doom.”
I learn something new every day on OFW 🙂
Cockburn is a great performer– see him if you have the chance.
1980 in Slovakia? This was one of the top songs of that year, by a group that brought a new drive after the 1970s, when the nuclear power plants started to come online in Slovakia:
Haha nice song MG! Very 80s!! What a great decade!
I really love this TV musical from 1981:
https://youtu.be/zrxXbIbIfFI
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neberte_n%C3%A1m_princezn%C3%BA
Meanwhile, in 1982, at the other end of Europe:
This song also reminds me of the great shows that were on TV at the time, like Taxi, WKRP in Cincinnati and Three’s Company amongst others. Great laughs:
2 scenes pop to my mind
The Turkey throwing scene from WKRP (As God is my witness I thought Turkeys could fly ROLFFFFF):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGFtV6-ALoQ
And Jim Ignatowski trying to pass his taxi license in Taxi:
A timeless classic David!!
Was always partial to “Lovely Day” myself…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYi7uEvEEmk
Cheers,
-GBV
Somethin’s goin’ on, folks. And it ain’t the virus.
Local hospital 130 north of NYC has ONE case. Do not know if it is confirmed by DNA test to actually be CV19 or just symptom ie has pneumonia from something.
Tim, maybe it is time for the slaves to leave Egypt.
Unfortunately good people have been taken in by the fake epidemic..makes me pretty sad. Anyone following Peak Oil matters for any length of time should sense that this Virus is a setup. A ‘backburn’. See a forefront approaching? Start a backburn to minimise the damage. Sorry Gail, you shoulda seen this one comin’
I wrote three articles trying to point out the problem with overreacting to the coronavirus, before this article.
Edit: I didn’t get a chance to see Tim’s video until later. It is concerning.
Looking at my State of Georgia data, https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
It is very clear that the true number of cases is far higher than “confirmed.” At least 10 times, maybe 100 times. Most people haven’t been tested. Most people aren’t very sick.
Hmm… is “overreacting” really the same as media lies / spin? It’s fair to say that overreactions are undesirable and will have (are having?) negative effects on everyone… but blatant media lies / spin aren’t simply undesirable, they’re duplicitous and coercive in all the worst ways.
I’ll admit that I’m currently unaware of how to discern whether what we saw (or, rather, what we didn’t see, as much seems to have been suppressed by the CCP) in Wuhan was true, and what we’ve seen in Italy is true, but what we’re seeing in North America is just lies and spin?
Citizen journalism seems like a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, it will likely be curtailed once stronger lockdown rules are put into effect 🙁
I don’t know… maybe instead of getting out the pitchforks and going after politicians, we should get anyone affiliated with the mainstream news media first? Particularly the weatherpeople… they’ve got it coming, and how!
Cheers,
-GBV
As in rather than tearing each other to pieces, we will be cowering in our homes — in fear of the virus?
I can buy that.
And nonetheless getting the virus through the ventilation. Yup, sounds like a good “plan”.
The video is sort of disturbing. The video, together with healthcare systems laying off workers because their revenue is down so much.
That is a very interesting video Tim – thanks.
If this is all manufactured (keeping in mind there is also citizen journalism that conflicts with this) — then we will know soon enough — because one would assume that miraculously this virus is going to disappear before the global economy implodes.
How difficult would it be to just fold the Wuhan flu numbers into the regular flu numbers — pull the MSM off the story — and launch a new normal….
The agenda obviously cannot be to commit species suicide… so what is the agenda?
Again – if this is manufactured — we’ll find out the agenda soon enough.
I think a big part of the problem is confusion about what percentage of the population gets a severe form of COVID-19. If it is a tiny portion, comparable to regular flu, then all these shutdowns are overkill.
Or perhaps, the shutdowns are so helpful that we can expect the virus back again and again, starting a few months after any shutdown is turned off.
Or perhaps both of these are the true.
Something is not right, Tim.
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/all-roads-lead-dark-winter/
Also many other articles on the topic there, thanks.
Something is going on is right.
https://www.thelastamericanvagabond.com/top-news/all-roads-lead-dark-winter/
Sorry about the double post.
I wonder if the outbreak isn’t worsened by the lockdown procedures in conjunction with apartment buildings with poor ventilation recirculating virus contaminated air as the cruise ship outbreaks illustrates.
If you live in an apartment building with a common ventilation system, it’s perhaps a good time to get an air filtration unit.
Respectfully, no: it is time to move to an apartment where the ventilation is provided by open windows.
Apparently you are not aware of a thing called winter. Tell that to your fellow humans living above the arctic circle.
Apart from ventilation problems, people’s immune systems are weakened if they get less sunlight and fresh air. So, lockdowns will reduce the spread of infection but increase the severity of each infection.
I know that I have been outside quite a bit, and quite a few other people around here are outside as well. With gyms closed, people go walking or jogging rather than go to the gym. The weather is nice here at this time of year, encouraging people to be outside. The golf club nearby seems to have quite a few golfers. Of course, there are a lot of people who never go outside.
Our restriction is not too severe here, either.
Large cities is a death trap. Staying indoors mean airborne contamination through ventilation, going outdoors means crowded areas and aerosol contamination transported human to human.
Yes, cities is where civilizations goes to die. Right Robert? 😉
Suburbs aren’t very crowded around here. There is an empty college campus right next door, for example.
I guess I meant typical large city centers, high rise buildings, apartment complexes, elevators, escalators, common entrance, plenty of choke points for people, etc.
Suburbia isn’t that bad from a contagion perspective, I agree.
Kowalainen, your argument seems more plausible with every week that passes. Our readings of history may differ, but I am no longer persuaded that mine was right and yours wrong. Let us continue the dialogue.
With the global situation evolving so quickly every day because of Covid-19, days feel like weeks now, weeks feel like months, and months feel (or will feel) like years….
We are all yogis now, playing with the illusion of Time. .
And every day’s a Sunday……
so well put
Worth reading this opinion on China:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-04-03/chinas-coming-upheaval?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=pre_release&utm_campaign=special_send_pei_china_coming_upheaval_regusers&utm_content=20200403&utm_term=registrant-prerelease
Interesting! The title of this is, “China’s Coming Upheaval.” This is exactly what I have been concerned about.
According to the article:
Conclusion
The US bombing Iranian oil wells, pipelines, loading ports, infrastructure sewage treatment plants, water treatment plants, bridges would take much oil from China without the risk of direct nuclear war.
The conclusion is absurd. If there is one fact about the history of China, it is that the people will unite against any and all 外来魔鬼 (‘foreign devils’). If the communists are in trouble (and I believe they are) the best thing the West can do is to leave well alone. If the dynasty has the Mandate of Heaven it will survive; if not, not.
“Since taking power in 2012, Xii has replaced collective leadership with strongman rule.”
I’m not mentioning this just for Normann, whose comments are valuable and highly informative, but for the general readership…
look!
he’s taken total control!
it was only a matter of time!
to me, it’s no surprise that a new strongman would appear in a non democracy…
and it’s real and it’s here now… not just a future speculation…
peace to all…
ps: a Winnie the Pooh meme would fit well here…
This video is absolutely fascinating:
Albert Camus – The Plague
From the video:
“Like the people of Oran (fictional French-Algerian city) before the plague we assume that we’ve been granted immortality and with this naivety come behaviors that Camus abhorred: a hardness of heart, AN OBSESSION WITH STATUS (KUWTK anyone), a refusal of joy and attitude, a tendency to moralize and judge….The people of Oran associate plague with something backward that belongs to another age, they are in their eyes MODERN people with phones, trams, airplanes and newspapers (and OFW Blog 😉 ) they are surely not going to die like the wretches of 17th century London or 18th century Canton, it’s impossible to be the plague…everyone knows that has vanished from the West says one character…
“For Camus when it comes to dying there is NO progress in history, there is no escape from our frailty, being alive always was and will always remain an emergency, as one might put it, truly an inescapable underlying condition” (WOW mind-blown)
I just reread The Plague.
Nice Duncan…are there many parallels with what we are living right now?
Some– we shall see how this progresses.
We are still quite early, and this is global, with a permeant change probably.
Yes good idea… I’ll listen this time …
Also picking this up
https://www.audible.com/pd/Journal-of-the-Plague-Year-Audiobook/B07F9B1L97?qid=1585986192&sr=1-2&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_2&pf_rd_p=e81b7c27-6880-467a-b5a7-13cef5d729fe&pf_rd_r=MW18H8DBP5F68BY8YMYA
I am saving my library of printed books for when Audible is no longer … those will be for the time between no electricity … and starvation …. I won’t be bothering with garden so will have plenty of time to read… (between firing random rifle shots into the air to warn off the bad guys… and taking swigs of whiskey… M Fast and I were organizing the garage and we have roughly 50 bottles of whiskey ‘standing by’)
This novel was written in 1947. I remember reading it in college, but I would need to reread it now. We lose sight of the repetitiveness of how people handle problems.
Wikipedia gives a plot summary.
Camus lived most of his life with tuberculosis, but that didn’t stopping from smoking cigarettes. If he was with us today, he would be 106 and at high risk for coronavirus-induced pneumonia.
But as it happens, he died in a car crash one afternoon in 1960, before the days of seat-belts and airbags, while in riding in the passenger seat of a car driven by his friend Michel Gallimard.
As Encyclopedia Britannica tells the story, “Camus and Gallimard were returning to Paris after spending the holidays in Provence. Gallimard’s wife, Janine, and their 18-year-old daughter, Anne, were also in the car. In the small town of Villeblevin, just over 65 miles (105 km) outside Paris, Gallimard lost control of the car. As police later noted, Gallimard had not been speeding, the road was straight, and the pavement was not icy (or even wet). The Facel Vega nonetheless veered into a tree, instantly killing Camus and gravely wounding Gallimard. Janine and Anne were not seriously injured. The car was destroyed.
“Camus had not originally intended to return to Paris in that Facel Vega; his wife, Francine, and their teenage twins, Catherine and Jean, had traveled to Paris by train. Evidently, Gallimard had convinced Camus to ride with his family; the return half of a train ticket was found in Camus’s pocket. “
There is a movie but I cannot find a torrent for it https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Plague_(1992_film)
I must buy 2 solar panel and 2 battery for grid out?
Genuine Q: or pulling our leg? – I tried to address it few pages last time already.
Firstly, you have to make your mind about the electricity consumption you would like to cover from that system, e.g. you measure/guesstimate: TV+radio+cell phone charger needs in total as 100watts and you are using it for 4hours, that’s 400 watt hours. Then you can go shopping the solar gear and don’t forget to make it few hundred percent bigger because of bad weather (no sun for dayz)..
They’re now destroying food, just like the Great Depression.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-dairy-farmers-dump-milk-100952217.html
According to the article, the low prices reflect a problem with disruption to supply lines:
The dumping is to try to get the price up.
I fear we may expect severe malnutrition arising from disruption.
Who would have guessed at that on New Year’s day 2020?
This is turning out to be a crash course (pun intended) in the failure of networks.
Yeah you have spoken the hard truth. Whole world is gonna face a difficult time. Many nations will be faced a credit crisis. Many government will increase the indirect tax rate. Cost of living will be increased sky high all around the world.
This is my point of view regarding the matter
https://malindakavih.wordpress.com/2020/04/02/prospective-economics-of-the-pandemic-and-prevision/
This post seems to be yours (or someone else’s) views of what happened in the past, where we are now, and what to expect in the future.
Governments may try to increase the tax rate, but I am doubtful they will be successful. They will be overthrown instead, or they will just give up.
Seems like the US government has already been overthrown. The captain of an aircraft carrier was removed from his post despite taking action to save the lives of his crew, because the President thought it made him look bad and the Navy secretary is a sycophant. Looks like the kind of thing that happens in a coup, to me.
Not necessarily, think about it from the military’s point of view. How would it look to have a gigantic aircraft carrier at sea and then the admiral announces publicly that they have a Covid19 outbreak on board? What if there were enemy submarines in the area waiting for an opportune time to strike? It was a public announcement to our enemies that this multibillion dollar hunk of equipment at sea was ripe for plundering. It was a dumb, panic maneuver on this part and he could get imprisonment for what he did. He endangered everyone’s life on board.
I’m thinking it might be a diversion, but too obvious. If an Asian enemy is indeed planning something, then announcing to the world that your military is getting weak because of infections might make the enemy blink. Meanwhile, that military is really just hiding and waiting out for what the enemy might do next, then will pounce at the opportune moment. On the other hand, its too obvious a diversion and I’m sure the enemy isn’t that stupid… why would your military advertise **to the public medias** that it has a big infection problem, thus are weakened and out of commission? Makes no sense.
Could you remind us, if you please, Michael, who is the commander-in-chief of the US armed forces? The only coup I am aware of is the coup de grâce given to the aircraft carrier captain. But you seem to know about this in depth. So tell us, has Trump committed mutiny against himself?
Tim, in both the later Roman Empire and in pre Edo Japan, being commander in chief was a role with rather a short life expectancy. I suspect this phenomenon is about to make a comeback.
Doubtful Robert. Sane people recognise that if every military officer whined to the press about their particular situation rather than keep sensitive information internal- as it be- the military would be completely ineffectual.
He knew this. Sounds like he spoke out in order to help his sailors.
Yeah but intried to point out what are the least possible thing could go wrong for a worst outcome. But yeah all the governments will have to squeeze the public
Historically they all seem to fall into that trap, squeezing ever more to try to save a failing system.
Instances in which governments lessen the tax burden to spare an impoverished people stress are vanishingly rare, if they exist at all.
Yeah yeah. But they have to go hard right?
Pingback: Corona – Intermezzo | Förändringens tid
Many thanks indeed for your information.
Just one thing. Why do you insist in calling the 1918 flu as “Spanish Flu” when in reality it did start in the USA?
It is not fair.
Best regards from Spain.
Spain was neutral in World War I. They were the only one that allowed mention of the virus in their news media. Thus, it was assumed that they must have the biggest problem.
If this is the case, I wonder about all of the stuff about “social distancing” in different cities in the US, based on the National Geographic article took place. If must have been pretty limited social distancing. The social distancing produced double humps within a six month period, according to the article. It didn’t put off cases very long. The two peaks were maybe four months apart. In some cases, the second peak was higher than the first.
Gail thanks I did not know this.
Kansas is not in Spain?
Let’s sum it up:
A society will seek to solve problems by those means consistent with the level of complexity it has attained: in doing so, it will destroy itself.
It will also have no alternative to taking a self-destructive course, in practice if not in theory.
This is called: Fate.
Excellent comment !
With all due respect, there have been premodern societies that have managed to tackle their problems successfully and thrive for millennia.
We can’t generalize from the failings of one civilizational form to all forms of civilization.
Yes, I’d agree: it would depend on the degree of over-shoot and the technological level attained.
Less advanced civilisations have modified themselves as well as collapsing outright.
the difference this time is that ours is the first truly global society
When the Greek society ‘collapsed’ The Inuit, Patagonians and Chinese knew nothing about it, and wouldn’t have cared even if they did
Now a Chinese emergency drops into our own backyards overnight and we all panic
we are all interconnected whether we agree with it or not
Yes, we have ventilators, pharmaceuticals and masks being mass produced shipped and flown all around the globe to save lives.
Did the retardation level increase to breaking point in the last few comments?
But don’t you worry, irrelevance awaits. Gaia will make sure of that one way or another. Useless eaters.
Excellent comments by both CTG and Xabier.
This week I went to the funeral of an old lady aged 104, who was the mother of a neighbor I’m friendly with. This lady had been in a care home for the past ten years and had lost most of her mental faculties by the time she was admitted, but she was able to walk around and feed herself until recently.
Her death reminded me that I personally know some other elderly people “living” in the same facility who have basically been on life support, comatose or semi-comatose, and fed intravenously for many years. In one case for almost twenty years. In traditional societies such people would be allowed to die “naturally” when they no longer eat. But in care homes in modern Japan and elsewhere they are often maintained indefinitely in a vegetative state until a vital organ fails.
For the facilities, in some ways these are ideal residents. They require only routine care and unlike the more active and cantankerous oldsters, they don’t cause the staff a lot of problems. And of course, they help these institutions pay the bills. This I think is an example of society seeking to solve the problems of taking good care of the elderly and infirm by devoting resources consistent with the level of complexity it has attained, and with very mixed results.
Assuming something else doesn’t take you off first, would you rather spend your final years bedridden and hooked up to a feeding tube, or would you prefer to end your days with a short stay at a hospice given only kind treatment and palliative care? As I get closer to the age where such questions are more than academic, my chronic dread of ending up warehoused in a nursing home shows no signs of abating. And it is only my faith that the inevitability of collapse will save me from that fate that keeps me from making specific plans to avoid the contingency.
We have a similar situation here, with “the system” seeming to say that elderly people need to be kept alive indefinitely. It is hard to go against the system.
I know that before my husband’s mother died some years ago, a doctor came in and said, “All of her major organs are shutting down. Should we move her to intensive care and try to keep her alive longer?”
I thought, “What a strange question? Of course not.” I am not sure my husband agreed with me. Ultimately, we said, “No.”
Thank you, Tim. I reached a similar conclusion on turning 70, and executed a “living will” to the effect that no emergency measures were to be taken merely to prolong life. That was legally binding in Singapore; alas, it would not be so here.
Mankind cannot understand that solutions in that direction may not really be attainable.
my take is
that if the earth is aware that it has some kind of malaise, what better cure could there be than to release an organism that gets rid of it, and leaves all other species unharmed
The idea that earth has some kind of consciousness is very appealing to me Norman! 🙂
well it’s a theory that ticks every explanation box
by consciousness i don’t mean the sort that we are aware of.
just because we are ‘aware’ doesn’t preclude there being other forms of awareness—such as trees in a forest being aware of their collective surroundings.
100 years ago that would have been loonytoons stuff, now we know it isnt
microbial life has been around for billions more years than us, why shouldn’t they have evolved protective strategies—every other life form does, without exception, i can’t see that they would be any different
Very interesting point, the plants and trees indeed communicate intensively throughout the soil – fungi layers. So that’s why just for this very reason conventional agriculture is a dangerous joke..
Here is my take on Singapore. I go there every other week until I am not allowed to go in. I stand corrected if I presented something wrong. However, these are my observations and conclusions as a third party observer.
You can even view Singapore as a petri dish.
Singapore does not like to use the word “lockdown”. They used the word “circuit breaker”. However, in my writing below, I will use lockdown. They are equivalent in that sense.
1. Singapore is a hub for transportation and it has a lot of offices
2. It relies a lot on foreigners for its manpower needs. It has an estimated 400,000 Malaysians working there part time, permanent or day job.
3. It needs open borders and a continuous flow of money, goods and people. It is because of this, I believe they try to delay or avoid any very very costly lockdowns.
4. They have done a lot of checks and take a lot of steps to ensure that the minimize the chances of lockdowns.
5. The implemented flight restrictions from China very early (probably ate Jan or early Feb)
6. They did extension contact tracing
7. The government can control hysteria and narrative quite easily.
8. They are transparent and they have excellent medical facilities.
9. They have a lot of budget to spend on fighting COVID-19
10. Their government has a lot of high caliber people who can really look far in their planning and their actions.
When other countries shutdown (like Malaysia, Europe, etc), Singapore may find that, being interconnected, they are not productive if others are shutdown. The virus is rather “capable” orf penetrating its population, probably, many of them are from Malaysian workers going over to Singapore when Malaysia’s lockdown was announced.
Singapore is small and their medical facilities, although excellent are limited in capacity. The trend is very clear and it is rising.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/image/12599578/0x0/940/1671/c6ff11f7a9efbc18f5e7e7e4d63e8e2a/gA/covid-19-cases-singapore-gfx-apr-1.png
The small chart on the top left corner (in blue) shows exponential increase.
Remember that Singapore did its very best to avoid lockdown, took a lot of proactive actions, did a lot of testing and contact tracing. Many businesses, schools, etc are only closed when the situation really cannot permit them to be opened. Their plans are excellent and properly thought out. I believe that if they continue doing “half measures”, their healthcare will be overwhelmed and they are forced by the situation to lockdown
In the end, they need to impose lockdown first rather than being forced to lockdown plus overwhelmed healthcare.
Singapore takes everything seriously and they don’t joke about this type of thing. It is only after a lot of careful consideration that they decide to do lockdown.
I think that basically proves that
1. It is more than “just a flu”. It is very capable of overwhelming healthcare.
2. You either shutdown voluntarily or you are forced to shutdown, no matter how big the consequences to the economy.
The solution to the ‘overwhelms healthcare’ (and kills many health workers if their govts. have failed to provide PPE) nightmare is for people to endure the sickness, and maybe die, at home. Even a small number of cases relative to the total population will exceed hospital capacity.
All one would need is a doctor to administer a kind coup de grace when the illness turns nasty. After all, you’d do it for your dog or cat.
And efficient logistics for corpse collection and disposal by cremation or mass burial – armies can earn their money for once.
It is in fact the desire to maintain complex healthcare (mostly futile for severe cases as things stand at present) which is the main problem.
Which proves the OFW thesis, that complexity destroys itself: we have hospitals, think we should use them for this, and thereby crash both them and the whole economic system.
Dying at home was normal for most of human history. It is not so terrible: but we prefer to push reality off onto the poor vulnerable health workers.
Xabier right “Dying at home was normal for most of human history.”
“Dying at home was normal for most of human history. It is not so terrible…”
It’s easy to say that casually when it’s not one’s own loved ones or oneself who are the ones that have to go.
And I do think there’s a certain qualitative difference between a close relative and a pet dog or cat.
Quite often so: close relations can have considerably less charm and intelligence, and often display less consistent affection. And that is why civilised people strive to give them a kind and quick end.
But seriously, we must reflect on our naive and persistent demand always to have something done for us, to use technology to the last breath to extend life, and above all – I think this is a serious ethical issue today – do we have the right to demand that if it will inevitably lead to the deaths of medical staff, and no small %?
Medical workers are now one of the most at-risk groups in this pandemic, spending so much time in an infected environment.
No amount of sentimentality about our ‘rights’ and how wonderful they are to be serving humanity can hide that fact.
At the culmination of a very long illness, my own mother died in my home, and I wouldn’t have wanted it any other way.
There is something very “unseemly” (to use an old-fashioned word) about putting oldsters on ventilators. The whole ventilator panic is, in itself, a scam-within-a-scam, as most people do not come off the vent alive, and many who do end up with cognitive and other impairments of varying degrees of severity.
If I get the virus, I do not want to be hospitalized. Hospitalization is unlikely to lead to a better outcome, and I don’t want to leave my husband in the poor house.
It’s fine with me if I die at home.
With cats and dogs we kindly put them down. With my mother with terminal bone marrow cancer the only legal move for the hospital was to withhold food and water and cause her to die of dehydration or starvation. Yes, we are so kind to humans. My mother and I were talking she said we can talk about this more when I am home. I at least had the kindness not to tell her “you are never going home you will die here in a few days”. Yes the compassion of western medicine all the morphine you want and we can bill you for.
Litmus test on this … many countries cannot afford to try to contain this…. therefore we should expect Indonesia … India etc… to be Italy on steroids…. so far that’s not happening … that could change though…. if it does not and it ends up being no different than a normal bout of the flu – or even a bad flu…then it’s time to confirm we have been fed dog shit … and the Controlled Demolition Theory – CDT (TM Fast Eddy Corporation)
Superb post, CTG, thank you.
Xabier you said it best:
We are between the devil and the deep blue sea (love that expression, did not know about it, thanks Xabier) 🙂
This is not a problem we are facing with Covid-19, which implies there is a potential solution, but a predicament with which there is no solution. Covid-19 is the perfect storm.
Quarantine = Kills the economy = Everything collapses, ultimately grids start failing across the world, chaos ensues
Don’t Quarantine = Hospitals overrun, workers sick and dead by the millions = Kills the economy = Everything collapses, ultimately grids start failing across the world, chaos ensues
The only way I can see of solving the problem is to come out with a cheap kind of home care solution that works most of the time. Perhaps this would involve a combination of drugs, vitamins, and in some cases, home oxygen use.
The poor outcomes of respirator treatment need to be determined more clearly and publicized. If 75% of patients with over 2 weeks of respirator treatment die, and most of the rest have permanent brain damage, this would be useful to document. Perhaps there is some subgroup that respirator treatment works for, but without other treatments, it clearly doesn’t work very well.
If the treatment can be moved mostly out of the hospital, the disruption can be greatly lessened.
In Italia are black market of oxigen
In the United States, people often have “concentrators” in their homes that increase the oxygen concentration of air. I don’t know if this would add enough oxygen for the needs of most of those with COVID-19, though. Prices seem to start at about $1,000. It is also possible to rent the units. Some of these are battery operated; some plug into the wall.
Looking at the numbers of Spain, I can say that in Italy we managed it well and surely the positives are much more.
New post from Tim Morgan, though he never gets anywhere near as many comments as OFW.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/04/03/169-at-the-zenith-of-complexity/
Good, especially the part hinting some are going to try front load that necessary de-layering of their particular sphere of profession-specialization. That will surprise many (bystanders) and severely decrease the resiliency of quasi-BAU.. hence ushering the lower complexity status.
Tim Morgan sort of gets what degrowth is all about, but he doesn’t understand the discontinuities that make his type of “project from the past,” not work well at all.
Tim Morgan says:
Give me a break! He assuming that degrowth can go on slowly for another 20 years. A networked system doesn’t work that way.
He gives some ideas that indicate that he sort of understands the problem, including the rising overhead cost per remaining consumer, but he doesn’t really understand what goes wrong with the system. He also has never looked at the history of collapses, I would guess.
Do I detect a note of exasperation there, Gail?
He basically thinks like an economist. He produces outcomes that those in academic fields will like. He picked up some ideas from Charlie Hall that are part of what in his SEEDS model, but he doesn’t understand how a networked economy works. His outcome does not look like the result of a popping debt bubble.
To be fair, the context of that quote is not that he predicts next ~20yrs of slow continuum but rather only comments on the profile of the expected mega trend from his model..
So, the de-growth pattern could turn into systemic tailspin anytime, he just doesn’t make victory laps about it.
I barely bother reading Tim… and usually only do when I get tired of practicing my knife fighting… 5 hours a day of that is exhausting…
Tim was once a great thinker… but he has increasingly gone… ‘insane’… the more he crawls along the edge of the razer … the more he loses his mind… he methods are… unsound… his ideas are… delusional… illogical…
Most definitely…. Tim Morgan is…totally…. insane…. his blog needs to be terminated.. terminated – with extreme prejudice…
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iir9LDSl7qI/R4jbMylxokI/AAAAAAAAKLg/EneYAXTF6z4/s400/Picture+4X.png
https://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Iir9LDSl7qI/R6lShkCIvVI/AAAAAAAAMJg/sGTScqC0xbU/s400/018.jpg
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Iir9LDSl7qI/SGmsIwlszeI/AAAAAAAAYW4/tOQQ_KJ3Wio/s400/Picture2.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_Iir9LDSl7qI/SGmsI0265hI/AAAAAAAAYWw/pzFYO5cQu30/s400/Picture.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_QQDAENTIcPs/TKSNee4U_yI/AAAAAAAALZc/KtayndoAR2I/s1600/yabba-dabba-doo-.gif
To those who are in Sweden, can we have a real life “boots on the ground” update? I believe Sweden is the only country that is not any form of quarantine, lockdown or even social distancing. Is it working?
Oh, were social distancing, only not by law. Last time I met my or wifes parents was a month ago
Quite a lot working from home. Kids at school. Not meeting more than 50, indoors at least. Grocery shopping daily.
Infected numbers are probably off by x10 or x100 because minimal testing, death numbers possibly more true.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/01/why-is-coronavirus-fear-so-low-in-sweden/#4a0bae673870
Mark Travers on paper is a smart guy – one area of expertise he falls short on is biology / virology and economics.
He is focused on “deaths”.
A Marine Infantry squad can take 1 or 2 casualties in combat – they expect it – It goes up and it turns into a problem.
Mark should stay in his wheel house. Sure I’m curious how this plays out in Sweden just like I’d be curious watching a train wreck.
Sweden curious what you think about going into a meat packing plant or car plant or etc.. Making the equivalent of peanuts to keep the wheels turning.
I guess what I’m asking is the juice worth the squeeze.
I don’t know but I see fire.
Ed should move to Sweden.
Compared to what? Italy, New York, Norway, UK, or South Korea?
Any with what you know so far.
Dan if Sweden had not chosen to commit cultural suicide I would very much want to move to Sweden at this point.
Ed, the Swedish government announced a couple of weeks ago that it would give immigrants priority in healthcare over old Swedes. I hope those who die have sons and grandsons who remember how to wield a sword, and how to execute a Blood Eagle on those who betrayed them and their kinfolk.
Those expected to live more than six month if treated will get priority.
Wouldn’t it be horrible chosing who to treat based on skin color?
Marine infantry squad? Juice worth the squeeze? Maineprepper is that you?!
No.
I’m a Texan bumbkin
DJ, what do you think it wil happen to Sweden? Will be it forced to lockdown like Singapore or change direction like UK?
I think people will start dying about now.
I would not rule out, perhaps expect, a lockdown.
Next week the results of randomised testing of the capital will be out.
Yep – and the Swedes will spend their final days in their homes cowering in fear over the flu… they will be told not to venture out… at some point the military/police will enforce this using guns…. because ‘this is serious stuff — we need to FLATTEN the curve — STAY inside or we shoot you’
And if you mess around your neighbours will report you to the police (NZ already has a website for this https://www.police.govt.nz/105support)
At some point the supply chain busts… you are in the dark… your food runs out … but The VIRUS lurks outside… cannot go outside… MSM has told you it’s not safe (notice how everyone now says ‘stay safe’) …. MSM and your politicians will INSIST that this is temporary … food will be delivery SOON… electricity will come back on soon … STAY INSIDE… anyone going out endangers everyone!!!!
STAY THE Foook INSIDE!!!!! Everything will be fine….
Politically incorrect to go outside — why are you outside – there is nothing for you outside… the food will be DELIVERED … soon… calm down or we will shoot you…. go back inside…
And the Swedes will go back inside — so will everyone else….
And the food will NOT be delivered….
And you will eventually grow weak…. and you will NOT riot or tear faces off… (you may eat your dog though…)
Then you will die.
The el ders have apparently not decided yet if they will include Fentanyl in the script… Don Draper is trying to come up with a way to do this without creating panic and riots… Don is good.. real good… he’ll work it out!
The more wine I drink… the more clarity of thought I have….
You so funny mr Eddy
We don’t have military, few police. Maybe you meant someone elses army?
Death numbers as a precent of population for Sweden are right in line with other countries, such as Netherlands, Switzerland, France and the United States. Spain, Belgium, Italy, and Ireland are all high. South Korea, Norway, Lithuania, Hungary and Iran are quite low. I expect Iran hasn’t reported the right number of deaths.
I can’t find Japan on the charts now. Their numbers seems to be low as well, but a person cannot necessarily assume similar counting everywhere. If a person who is very ill from something else dies, how is that counted? This can affect the death count signficantly.
Compared to NY 1/8 deaths per capita.
Of course you have to wait until after before calculating.
yes, way too early for calculating the awful devastating horrible mountains of dead people…
There’s also Taiwan, but we’re still below 300 active cases. They’re just now requiring masks on public transportation (already worn by 90+ %) and recommending social distancing. Several universities are closed because somebody in them had the virus (but there are more than 100).
In Sweden we are doing voluntary social distancing. At my work almost everyone (>95%) work from home. Elderly people like my parents isolate themselves entirely. You can still shop, everything is open so in that way still very much like BAU. Much less people around in the towns, particularly Stockholm which, at the present, is the hot spot of the virus.
Intensive care beds are expected to reach their limit this week-end in the wider Stockholm region. Though already now health care staff seems heavily over worked and stressed. They plan to let the elderly and sick die off when the intensive care beds hit the limit.
A bright, young norwegian academic, Aksel Braanen Sterri, has written an interesting piece about the the ethic in emergency situations. This is the translation using Google translation:
Now that production is plummeting and unemployment is soaring, we are faced with a difficult question: How much damage to the economy can we endure to save human lives?Karen Helene Ulltveit-Moe, Asle Toje and Jon Hustad (MTH) have expressed concern that the measures we have taken to stop the virus are doing more harm than good.
It is tempting to accuse them of not having their priorities in order. Human life is obviously more important than the economy. But it’s not that simple. There are specific human destinies that are hit when the economy stops. Hustad goes so far as to predict that “far more will die from the measures than from the corona.”
It complicates the picture. Those who are to put all cloths to save human lives can no longer cash in any simple moral victory. No matter what we do, people will die, so why do those who die now prioritize those who die later?
One possibility is to refute the claims that the measures do more harm than good. However, for the sake of argument, I will accept the claim. What I will defend is that we are justified in prioritizing people who will suffer and die from the virus, even if it comes at the expense of those who suffer and die as a result of the economy crashing.
However, it is no simple matter. MTH has logic on its side. It is no worse to die from corona than from suicide as a result of unemployment or cancer because we can afford less health care. It therefore seems logical to treat the two groups equally.
One objection is that we should not set human life against each other in this way. We can’t let anyone die to save more. But this is something we are already doing, and for good reason. If we have limited respirators, then most of us will prioritize the patients with the greatest chance of survival, since it allows more to survive.
Perhaps the problem lies in the fact that MTH seems to give different protection to different lives. The fact that it is mainly the old and the sick that die from the virus seems to motivate the claim that we should use less of society’s resources to save them. If all lives are worth the same, this is a problematic priority.
But spending more resources on saving the young and healthy than the old and the sick is not a bad priority. If a 90-year-old dies a few months before they would otherwise die, this is not as bad as a 20-year-old being robbed for the rest of his life. In other words, we should have a higher willingness to pay to prevent the 20-year-old from dying.
If we use public morality as a yardstick, it would seem okay to prioritize many and small welfare increases over saving human lives. We maintain high speed limits even though we know it costs human lives, apparently because we believe it is of greater value to be able to move a little faster from A to B.
It is no great exaggeration to state that it is utilitarianism that is the underlying value basis that motivates such priorities. Utilitarianism says that the only thing that matters is promoting general welfare as much as possible. The great strength of utilitarianism is that it takes in the well-being of all people and that it reminds us that we must take in all the consequences of our actions, including the unintended ones.
The problem with MTHs assessments is not utilitarianism per se, but that it is poorly suited as a management philosophy in an emergency such as the ongoing pandemic.
We can see this by imagining that the quickest way to get the economy back on track is to release the measures, so that the virus gets a foothold and spreads quickly through the population in a short time. We try to isolate the most vulnerable, but it is not possible. 20,000 die, mainly elderly and ill. Despite the big losses, general welfare will be higher after twenty years than the current strategy due to the positive consequences of getting the economy back on track. Is this the path we should choose?
Most people will say no. This may be because we do not realize the benefits of utilitarianism. But I rather think that this is because we are guided by another set of values, which is based on the fact that in emergency situations we have to prioritize our ordinary projects and make great sacrifices to solve the situation we are facing. Emergency ethics is based on the fact that emergency situations can only be solved if we act quickly and give them priority.
But why should we try to solve the crisis if solving it in the long run increases the number of lives lost? This is because ignoring it has very serious consequences that are not mentioned by the utilitarian practitioners.
Emergency ethics, firstly, reflects the great evil of letting a large proportion of the population lose any hope of being seen and assisted when hospital capacity is blasted and doctors are forced to refuse treatment to anyone over a certain age.
It takes into account the negative effects on the trust relationship between doctor and patient, when the lack of respirators forces doctors to decide whether to kill their patients by depriving them of respirators that are better used by others, or whether to let them many more die.
Emergency ethics also reflects that not all deaths are equal. It is unworthy when patients die in the hallway of a full-fledged hospital by being suffocated by filling their lungs with water without being able to have contact with the family, and funerals being held without anyone but the immediate family present. Allowing this to happen for the sake of general welfare undermines the fundamental trust between society and the individual.
Admittedly, as we navigate emergency ethics, we create other problems, such as the negative effects of measures on the economy. The job of utilitarianism is to remind us that there will be a day tomorrow. But emergency ethics reminds us that what can only be solved now must be solved first. The problems that follow, we have time to prevent or reduce later.
At the heart of the problem is what is otherwise the great strength of utilitarianism, its impartiality. By equating people outside the emergency with those inside, utilitarianism risks undermining the value base needed to respond to such crises in the future. In crises, we are motivated by an emergency ethic that is tailored to the specific problem we face. Our feelings reflect this, and should therefore be given greater moral weight than the one-sided, utilitarian calculations of the MTH.
https://morgenbladet.no/ideer/2020/04/hvor-komfortable-skal-vi-vaere-med-ofre-de-mest-sarbare-blant-oss-spor-aksel-braanen
The problem is that few policy makers want to make the decision to let more people die now just to benefit the society in the long run.
1. It is in our instincts to prioritize present needs and discount the future. Think also about how politics work, it’s their job to be popular and gain votes
2. We have a health culture where doctors call the shots and are not held accountable for resource use
3. Policy makers don’t realize that all these measures can collapse the civilization as we know it, they think the downside to the measures are mainly a temporary job loss
Our mindset has been conditioned by the fact that we have been able to overcome illnesses in the past. Most people’s view is that this clearly should be an easily fixable problem.
In fact, it is pretty much impossible to fix. We destroy our economy by trying to fix the problem.
We are already at the edge, so it is not clear that any strategy will work. This one clearly will not, however.
Well, it could be said that the economy can be fixed because there are peoeple still alive. Dead people will stay dead. The economy (financial system) in the end is only a set of man made rules. They could be changed wisely if there is a need *cough*
Air freight prices have spiked on routes out of China, by more than 200 per cent to destinations in Southeast Asia as factories desperately try to source components amid fears of further lockdowns, but also by more than 100 per cent to Europe and the United States, according to TAC Index, which monitors air freight rates.
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3078233/coronavirus-global-trade-braces-tidal-wave-ahead-shutdown
Well then you have what is on the ground in the trenches. How. do you throw millions into the streets without chaos.
https://youtu.be/76xUUh8M1rQ
Good video.
This speakers says the recovery is going to be very difficult because everybody thinks social distancing is the “way to go.”
Researchers don’t think of the average person. Researchers think of only the well to do, like themselves.
The damage in the mortgage real estate housing market is going to be a lot deeper than people than people expect. People will asks for readjustments on their loans, so they are not counted as delinquent. Play game of rolling things over.
Few places are open. Restaurants doing carryout. Can’t recover after three months. It is expensive to restock a restaurant. It can’t be a snap-back recovery.
Ten million people have filed for unemployment. Market went up. Makes no sense. People will give up on dollar; they will look for safe-haven assets. Doesn’t make sense to invest in the stock market now.
That is an excellent video
M Fast and I think he has a great voice…
Without a cheap way of shipping parts and finished goods, industry is in deep trouble.
Singapore latest country to lock down
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3078297/singapore-close-schools-most-workplaces-next-week
So much for the “warm weather will save us” point of view.
Indonesian Virus Deaths Top South Korea as Cases Near 2,000
Total death toll reaches 181, highest in Asia after China
Nomura says Indonesia may be among next virus hot spots
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-03/indonesian-virus-deaths-top-south-korea-as-infections-near-2-000?srnd=premium-asia
Jakarta Weather: https://www.accuweather.com/en/id/jakarta/208971/weather-forecast/208971
We’re still going to be able to get out of our homes and buy stuff. Though of course we’re asked to exercise discretion in doing so.
Can only hope the situation won’t deteriorate to the point where we’ll be required to stay in our homes indefinitely. Sigh…
Here in NZ we can buy nothing but food and petrol.
All shops are closed – all restaurants closed with no take-away.
It’s a great way to save money (if you still have a job…)
The Green Party should be rejoicing.
Ge e eeeta the semi- re ta r ded hippocrite must be well pleased (note the use of ‘semi’ those who are insulted when insult their teen idol)
“The fact is that the European banking sector is ready to “catch fire”, at any time. There’s just no way that our weak banking sector can handle the massive losses that the coronavirus will inflict to our “zombified” corporate sector.
“This naturally should concern the whole world, as Europe holds the largest concentration of global systemically important banks. The exit and default of Italy would be very likely to set in motion a process leading to both collapse of the European currency bloc and the global banking sector.
“We are playing with fire.”
https://reaction.life/the-looming-collapse-of-the-eurozone/?fbclid=IwAR25sUsYgMUPJaeTavk3Kki6F7u1G3tBAeMMkO3FkQy5XIQb0fqvD3WdLIo
“Europe’s car makers may be facing the worst crisis they’ve ever dealt with as production ceases and retail operations close during the coronavirus-induced lockdown.”
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/european-car-industry-faces-%E2%80%9Csevere%E2%80%9D-financial-crisis
“The IHS Markit eurozone services purchasing managers index in March slumped to a reading of 26.4 from 52.6 in February, the worst-ever reading in the history of the series.”
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eurozone-services-pmi-skids-to-worst-ever-264-in-march-2020-04-03
How in the world could leaders make decisions that lead to this result, without everyone being very upset?
They think the economy is a financial system and the market will provide everything if demand rises (for money)
Would it be helpful to think of this as a simple linear regression? As long as predictions are made from data points within the range of actual data, the results will be predictable, when independent data points are chosen outside of the range of known data points it becomes a hopeful guess that the future will behave with the same variation as the past.
You are much more knowledgeable than I in this area, but even if the data are gussied up in various ways to make it appear linear, it basically is a straight line drawn through data points, when the line extends beyond the data points, it is a hopeful guess the trend continues.
Decisions are made on the future being like the past, discontinuities happen, the populace similarly expects tomorrow to be like today, so experience conditions them to believe. So, hopefully if today is not as expected, tomorrow will be as expected based on previous experience.
Again a guess: If tomorrow is no longer predictable(e.g. hunter gather, food once eaten is gone, food tomorrow uncertain) behavior changes to the now, tomorrow is not easily related to today’s experiences.
Dennis L.
“Investors are bracing themselves for an emerging market credit crisis as the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic hits vulnerable countries and limits their ability to repay debts.
“Commodity prices have plunged and demand has frozen as the outbreak has spread across the globe, with currencies tumbling against the dollar. This has hit all emerging markets, particularly those burdened with high debts and fiscal deficits.
Zambia, one of Africa’s biggest copper producers, has joined Ecuador in telling investors it was struggling to repay debts… The woes of the two countries reflect broad distress in emerging markets.”
https://www.ft.com/content/bcdcf566-4dae-4d8b-8bc8-2dbbb54da1f8
“India is on the verge of an unprecedented economic catastrophe as the humanitarian disaster from the Covid-19 pandemic unfolds.
“The sheer scale of disruption from the ongoing 21-day national lockdown, announced by prime minister Narendra Modi on March 24 to contain the outbreak, is unprecedented in Indian history.”
https://qz.com/india/1830822/coronavirus-may-push-indias-struggling-economy-off-the-cliff/
Why are the problems in Zambia and India surprises?
A lockdown will not eliminate the Wuhan Virus.
We are suiciding the global financial system by doing this.
Why are we destroying the system?
Obviously it was already about to be destroyed regardless of the lockdown.
CDT. Has to be
Oh btw – if we suicide the global financial system we kill everything (radiation) so the Wuhan will have no vectors — so it dies too.
How cool is that
“An unprecedented number of Americans have resorted to food banks for emergency supplies since the coronavirus pandemic triggered widespread layoffs.
“The demand for food aid has increased as much as eightfold in some areas, according to an investigation by the Guardian, which gives a nationwide snapshot of the hunger crisis facing the US as millions become unemployed.”
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/02/us-food-banks-coronavirus-demand-unemployment
““Our estimate is that by the end of June, 20 million people will have lost their jobs — and I am wondering if even that is optimistic,” Shierholz said.
“The political ramifications of such a huge economic shock are unknowable.”
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490938-the-memo-scale-of-economic-crisis-sends-shudders-through-nation
“As many as 30% of Americans with home loans – about 15 million households –- could stop paying if the U.S. economy remains closed through the summer or beyond, according to an estimate by Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Analytics.
““This is an unprecedented event,” said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-02/home-lenders-brace-for-up-to-15-million-u-s-mortgage-defaults
“About 110 million U.S. adults had credit-card debt at the start of the coronavirus outbreak, according to new data from CreditCards.com. Almost two-thirds of them ran up the debt to pay for necessities like groceries, child-care or medical treatment.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-02/virus-rips-into-middle-class-america-where-finances-are-fragile
““The response [to the government’s relief programme] is overwhelming — it’s unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my career,” said Craig Street, the chief lending officer of United Midwest Savings Bank, a community bank in Columbus, Ohio. “We’re talking about attempting to do 10 times our normal monthly loan volume, and maybe more than that.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/business/small-business-coronavirus-stimulus.html
What a mess!
To the contrary, the political ramifications in the US are very predictable.
The voter suppression on the edges will continue, as well moreonic faith in (quasi)centrist establishment pre-approved candidates spoon fed to voters via msm, among other solidified features..
If there were really some reasonable purpose behind this, it might make a whole lot more sense.
We now take a break from the End of the World to discuss:
The Fake Moon Landings….
M Fast and I watched that Apollo movie recently and we were thinking … those landing craft look like they were made out of tin foil…. kinda like a bad special effects movie…
Now we’ve heard about the conspiracy theories so we began to dig… and here’s what we found:
1. Stanley Kubrick interview (released after his death) where he claims he faked the moon landings:
https://youtu.be/JhPxJcC9BWA
2. A video from NASA featuring a NASA scientist who admits that it is impossible for a human to survive in outer space because the Van Allen Belt radiation is so intense it would fry us. In fact the interview is about trying to develop spacecraft that could deliver a human to Mars… and the Belt is one of the major obstacles
https://youtu.be/B3qClCOQyQk
Kubrick’s interviewer struck me as positively obnoxious, being more like an interrogator. He kept interrupting while Kubrick was talking, hardly ever allowing the old gentleman to finish a sentence.
And we have MORE…..
Sound does NOT travel in space. Yet here we have an astronaut tossing a piece of metal and you can here is make a ‘clanking’ sound as it hits the tin foil lunar module.
And … when he pounds a stake into the moon you can clearly hear the sound of the hammer smacking on the stake.
https://youtu.be/XXbI-EsQv3c
https://youtu.be/JwNhYqNGnm0
That interview with ‘Kubrick’ was a fake.
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/films/news/stanley-kubrick-daughter-vivian-kubrick-apollo-11-moon-landing-conspiracy-theory-a7122186.html
Yes because his daughter says it’s fake then it must be fake.
Unfortunately for you — I have dropped a truck load of evidence (some from NASA) that states that it is IMPOSSIBLE to travel beyond low earth orbit.
http://sd.keepcalm-o-matic.co.uk/i/keep-calm-and-bow-down-to-the-king-10.png
can I come with you to the next meeting of the flat earth society ?
Ha ha ha…. even the first Star Wars ‘spacecraft’ look more realistic that this:
http://fopunkt.com/alexandria/donkology/banners/space-meme.jpg
http://fopunkt.com/alexandria/donkology/banners/mooney.jpg
this makes much more sense
far more realistic
And zooming in … Reynolds Wrap Gold:
https://www.lpi.usra.edu/resources/apollo/images/print/AS11/40/5926.jpg
https://alvinology.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Apollos-Moon-Shot-Image-credit-NASA.jpg
Come the foook on …. look at this piece of junk!
https://www.slashgear.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/nah-800×420.jpg
And then there is this:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/_7Bqr1I5gzyk/R52Qebk7fYI/AAAAAAAAAQc/LU3Zo1f4DnU/s320/moon%2520stuff003.jpg
And here we have the apparent reflection of a stagehand in the astronauts visor
https://youtu.be/771BCym46JE
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/LATQu8f4Pes/maxresdefault.jpg
maybe our entire everyday existence is a hoax
and the moon landings are the only reality there is
i tried eyerolling, but they refused to roll any more
still—the very best hoaxes are the ones where several thousand people are in on it—and you are the only one not.
and not one of them ruins the gag by revealing the truth, but keeps it going for decades.
but i guess it would be worth it—it would have needed all those $billions ‘spent’ on the appollo program used as hush money, divided up between all the staff who colluded on the ‘great hoax’ back in 69.–mustve worked out at about $50 apiece I reckon (then there’s all the other moon shots as well)—plus the faked kamekazi episode which we really shouldn’t talk about
not to mention all the evil foriegn persons who would have had to be bought off in the same way, who could have pinpointed the direction of radio signals from anywhere in the world (as least as I understand the sciences or radio reception/direction)
Or –more likely—what we have here is a double hoax.
We missed your windups Eddy during the period when you were held prisoner by aliens while they were doing evil things to your brain
Has Mrs FE noticed anything different yet? She’sprobably too polite to mention it
But Norman….
How many people have gone in and out of the doors of the NSA over the past 25 year?
Many hundreds of thousands….
All those people … kept a very big secret … for all those years…..
THEN …. this fella came along:
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/dam/assets/140310104147-edward-snowden-1024×576.jpg
I have shown you the evidence Norman — I have shown you the tin foil lunar module…
You need to open your eyes — the truth is hiding in plain site…
I must be a masochist, replying to stuff
like this, but when one is confined to barracks, there seems little else to do.
‘evidence’ seems to be exclusivly photographic, and even as a self-acknowledged rubbish photographer, I could do better than that—which is why I sent you the link to the ‘clangers’—they were shot in a garden shed, (literally). And of course became classics of their genre. Entirely believable.
We should all be wary of ‘conspiracies’ especially when one ‘knows’ the truth. (as I do of course, as you courteously point out) Riding one pony means you get used to it. But the latest developments have improved sales a bit. So that’s all to the good.
When you went missing from OFW, it was obvious you had been abducted by aliens. (the only explanation that made any sense, though there was much debate on the matter) Not everyone believed me, as you might expect. (I have the same trouble with world economics)
Anyone with any knowledge of aliens knows they do things with your mind, change you while leaving you in human form—- but not many know they do things with time as well.
Which means your abduction from the point of view of OFW was several months or so (who counted?) But from the point of view of Mrs F (for instance) was that you were abducted and returned in the same instant of time.
Probably between forkfuls at the dinner table, or between syllables of some profound piece of offered wisdom. Maybe even in the interval of waiting for traffic lights to change from red to green.
They do this at the most unexpected times. They are cunning in leaving you unaware of it. They weren’t clever enoungh to overcome the collective intellect of OFW though. We defeated them. We function in our own time-reality. So your absence was in OFW earth time, not ‘alien time’. Otherwise we wouldn’t have known.
So the little green devils had months of OFW time to do their mind doodling experiments, and implant all kinds of conspiracy theories, while your domestic time ran in a different dimension, leaving you unaware that changes had taken place.
This leaves their victim with firmly implanted ‘facts’ which only make sense to other people who have also been abducted under the circumstances described above. This is how you recognise each other. Flat earthers, Rapture monkeys, Scientologists, etc they all have that common thread. Their ‘facts’ are perfectly logical. They are ‘certain’ no matter what common sense is on offer.
Look into Mike Pence’s eyes. That blank stare never changes. (check it out) He too is ‘certain’. He is one of you. He has been ‘changed’.
We normal earthlings remain humourously mystified.
Looked at in that way, it all begins to make sense.
Actually for much of the time (months) — as I have mentioned previously — I was in Hong Kong with my gas mask and ski helmet and goggles… (I tried to use my hockey helmet — to make a fashion statement — but the visor was in the way of the goggles and it just lost that stormtrooper look if you removed the visor… and you need goggles cuz tear gas burns the skin and stings the eyes)….
Sorry to disappoint but I was not with aliens….
One must take time out to stand for what is right … no?
Let me recant an incident that demonstrates how “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
I was filming a blow up near Admiralty HK one afternoon … some of the blackshirts were bent on destroying a electrical box that controls the traffic lights….more specifically they were smashing it with hammers …
I suggested they be careful as that box likely had some serious voltage in it… one little guy looks at me and says – you think so? – yep I think so…. he then pulls out a bottle of petrol from a satchel… unscrews the lid … sprinkles it on the wiring and puts a lighter to it…. poof!!! I smile – he smiles… everyone is happy happy happy….
And then…. an expat walks by and says — did you get their faces? — I look at him — pause for a second — and say — why would I do that? — because they need to be put in jail…. as you can image the protesters do NOT want their faces photographed… (see below to people who try to out them) ….
You do understand what they are fighting for don’t you — so why would you do anything to harm their cause …. well mate he says… we have freedom in HK everything is great — and they are messing it up — I try to explain to him but then he says …. I’ve got a life and a job and a family blah blah blah… (Upton Sinclair kicking into high gear….)
And I say — the trains from Kowloon Station leave for China every 20 minutes… if you are so keen on the CCP… jump on board and get a head start….
And btw —- why are you asking me to risk my life to dox these brave fellas…. you’ve got a camera on your phone….
Expat walks away in disgust… (like the coward and mo r e on that he is)
End of Story. No Aliens.
https://youtu.be/MSeeEwd2res
Does this thing look like something that could survive in outer space?
Seriously….
http://fopunkt.com/alexandria/donkology/banners/space-meme.jpg
Norm – the only thing you seem to understand is ‘the end of more’ — you might want to stick to that because otherwise you are operating with your eyes wide shut.
https://f4.bcbits.com/img/a0551259065_10.jpg
Now THIS … is OUTSTANDING!!!!
https://youtu.be/OSIrQBGfUtw
The “silent” guy on the right is evidently laughing about the performance..
Well even televangelists must eat, and the second private jet or third RR limo doesn’t come cheap these days..
The computer models may be worse than the virus. See ‘Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?’: Professors claim more data needed to know mortality rate, in The Washington Examiner, Friday, April 03, 2020.
In spite of the dubiousness of highly touted computer models, the frenzy to shut down the world has continued. See also Fear Mongering COVID-19 Epidemiologist Says He Was Wrong, and a revealing interview with author Alex Berenson on Fox News, Alex Berenson Breaks Down the Broken and Completely False Coronavirus Models.
It now appears that, on the basis of “GIGO” (“Garbage In, Garbage Out”), the apocalyptists are going to “save” the planet by bankrupting it.
Static models without assumptions of changing behaviors is basically useless. When things go real, reality hits.
Time to change.
In my experience, Kowalainen, you are dead right. I have often been amazed at how supposed “experts”in human behaviour do not understand elementary game theory. Tax something and you will get more revenue? Not when people stop buying. Cut the price and people will buy more? Not if they already have as much as they need. Make health insurance cover more and more people will buy it? Not if men object to paying for pregnancy and women object to paying for workplace injuries. And so on.
Both of those references you give are very good.
I looked back at a Neil Ferguson report I could find. It is possible that there are others. There are a huge number of authors.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-13-europe-npi-impact/
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-03-30-COVID19-Report-13.pdf
The report has all kinds of assumptions about how effective social distancing will be. The hope is to drive the R0 below 1. Of course, to keep it below 1, it would be necessary to maintain these conditions indefinitely. There is no mention of the fact that this would be an absurd way for the economy to operate.
Another problem with the report is that it never shows the implied probability of death for a person catching COVID-19. There isn’t actually a single value for this, but they should at least be able to tell those reading the report what the total probability of death is implied by all of the fitting (to a small amount of data) that they do. My guess is that they were not assuming nearly enough asymptomatic and mild cases. As a result, they come up with too much of everything.
Fsck the “vaccine”, HEPA air filtration at home, meticulous hygiene, face mask and Providone-Iodine in your mouth, nostrils and hands cuts down the viral load on your body. Starting the exponential growth with a few viruses makes the body react in time. Breathing in huge concentrations of viruses, any virus, is a death warrant.
1,2,4,8,16,32
vs
100.000, 200.000, 400.000, 800.000, 16.000.000, 32.000.000
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5986684/
“In conclusion, our study results, taken together with (1) recommendations for gargling with antiseptic mouthwash for the control of oral and respiratory tract infections, (2) the rapid bactericidal and virucidal efficacy of povidone-iodine, including PVP-I gargle/mouthwash, against pathogens causing oral and respiratory tract infections observed in other in vitro and in vivo studies and (3) the established safety profile of PVP-I from over 60 years of use, provide a strong rationale for the use of PVP-I oral solution for protective oropharyngeal hygiene management for individuals at high risk of exposure to oral and respiratory pathogens.”
“If they think you’re crude, go technical; if they think you’re technical, go crude.”
How about just catching the virus and hoping that our antibodies are helpful?
That’s exactly what I am saying.
By catching a small enough number you won’t even notice the infection. Let “herd”/personal immunity build up over time as the body accumulates antibodies. But if the viral load is too large, you are basically wasted as the causalities of Italian doctors indicate. A bad sneeze in the face and you soon become a goner.
HEPA air filtration at home and in the apartments/offices/elder care, plus face masks and mouth wash/yellow tinted nose and hands from Providone-Iodine topical solution.
It does not by its nature kill all viruses due to the law of large numbers, but at least it keeps the viral load down for the bodily immune defenses to mount a winning battle.
https://media.makeameme.org/created/thats-what-winning.jpg
We do need winning strategies. Doctors working all day in hospitals filled with patients who have COVID-19 seems to overwhelm the immune systems of even young doctors.
Here is one winning strategy:
1. Order all elder care houses to immediately purchase HEPA air filtration units.
2. Instruct ALL people to wear face masks, anything will do.
3. Start mass production of providone iodine
4. Unprecedented information campaign where the president and surgeon general shows how it’s done instead of idiotic death statistics.
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4c/31/6e/4c316ea2ae01be634bc9783ca982f55f.jpg
I suppose Mr ‘Orange Man Bad’ will have an even more yellow tinted nose, hands and face from now on.
Do this and this corona BS will be over with by the next week.
https://miro.medium.com/max/550/1*RxmPeSybIUtxea4Vh98y2g.jpeg
@Gail
Triage is necessary earlier so that all doctors can rotate and take their turns resting. In the long run save more lives.
Wow the doctors are so overworked with the 5000+ Wuhan patients….
How did they cope when there were 700,000 flu patients in 2017/2018 over a 3 month period?
Maybe there were more doctors and nurses and hospitals then?
Maybe doctors and nurses get overworked more easily these days…. medical snowflakes… get really stressed if they have to work an extra hour here and there….
BOOM!
Coronavirus: Cathay Pacific to cut more flights after carrying just 582 people in a day
Airline says it will further reduce long-haul flights after 99.4 per cent drop in passenger numbers
Top bosses to take 30 per cent pay cut between now and December
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/3078223/coronavirus-cathay-pacific-cut-more-flights-after-carrying-just-582
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sweden 308 deaths… so let it rip… or is that R.I.P.?
Brazil 327 deaths… ditto ditto…
Neither country is doing very badly relative to other countries in the world, with respect to deaths. Cases are counted so differently it is hard to tell.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/04/02/dairy-farmers-dumping-milk-as-demand-vanishes/
dumping milk was an infamous Great Depression story…
Yes, there are however proven strategies how to deal with sudden “oversupply” of dairy (existing stock of cows must be milked regularly-daily at least till the ratio to calf changes), you can ship it to schools, poor etc., obviously that needs a bit of organizing effort and tactically placed subsidies; but don’t expect it in the US preoccupied with falling apart empire on the right and merely virtue signaling halfwits on the left, though..
Moreover, it’s also very likely that large part of these dairies are very (over) concentrated
type of facilities to begin with, full of hormones, GMO tainted forage and what have you.
So, perhaps the best approach is to let them crash anyway.
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2020/04/02/cbo-expects-economy-to-contract-7-percent-in-second-quarter/
“The Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that the U.S. economy will shrink by 7 percent in second quarter of this year.
“If that happened, the decline in the annualized growth rate reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis would be about four times larger and would exceed 28 percent,” the CBO said. “Those declines could be much larger, however.”
“could be much larger”…
no shirt, Sherlock…
https://www.breitbart.com/tech/2020/04/02/cal-state-fullerton-sends-email-asking-alumni-to-include-school-in-their-will/
could you include us in your will?
please?
not that there’s anything going on that might hasten your demise…