Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told

There is more to the fossil fuel energy predicament than we usually hear about.

Strangely enough, a big part of the confusion regarding the nature of our energy problem comes from the fact that virtually everyone wants to hear good news, even when the news isn’t very good. We end up seeing information in the Mainstream Media mostly from the perspective of what people want to hear, rather than from the perspective of what the story really is. In this post, I explain why this situation tends to occur. I also explain why our current energy situation is starting to look more and more like an energy shortage situation that could lead to economic collapse.

This post is a write-up of a presentation I gave recently. A PDF of my talk can be found at this link. An mp4 video of my talk can be found at this link: Gail Tverberg’s Nov. 9 presentation–Our Fossil Fuel Energy Predicament.

Slide 1
Slide 2

Most people attending my talk reported that they had mostly heard about the issue on the right end of Slide 2: the problem of using too much fossil fuel and related climate change.

I think the real issue is the one shown on the left side of Slide 2. This is a physics issue. Without fossil fuels, we would find it necessary to go back to using older renewables, such as oxen or horses for plowing, burned wood and other biomass for heat, and wind-powered sail boats for international transport.

Needless to say, these older renewables are only available in tiny quantities today, if they are available at all. They wouldn’t provide many jobs other than those depending on manual labor, such as subsistence agriculture. Nuclear and modern renewables would not be available because they depend on fossil fuels for their production, maintenance and long distance transmission lines.

Slide 3
Slide 4

On Slide 4, note that M. King Hubbert was a physicist. This seems to be the academic specialty that finds holes in other people’s wishful thinking.

Another thing to note is Hubbert’s willingness to speculate about the future of nuclear energy. He seemed to believe that nuclear energy could take over, when other energy fails. Needless to say, this hasn’t happened. Today, nuclear energy comprises only 4% of the world’s total energy supply.

Slide 5

The transcript of the entire talk by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover is worth reading. I have excerpted a few sentences from his talk. His talk took place only a year after Hubbert published his research.

Rickover clearly understood the important role that fossil fuels played in the economy. At that early date, it looked as if fossil fuels would become too expensive to extract between 2000 and 2050. A doubling of unit costs for energy may not sound like much, but it is, if a person thinks about how much poor people in poor countries spend on food and other energy products. If the price of these goods rises from 25% of their income to 50% of their income, there is not enough left over for other goods and services.

Slide 6

Regarding Slide 6, the book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others provided early computer modeling of how population growth and extraction of resources might play out. The base model seemed to indicate that economic decline would start about now. Various other scenarios were considered, including a doubling of the resources. Without very unrealistic assumptions, the economy always headed downward before 2100.

Slide 7

Another way of approaching the problem is to analyze historical civilizations that have collapsed. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles. There have been many examples of economies encountering a new source of energy (conquering a new land, or developing a new way of producing more energy), growing for a time, reaching a time where growth is more limited, and finally discovering that the economy that had been built up could no longer be supported by the resources available. Both population and production of goods and services tended to crash.

We can think of the current economy, based on the use of fossil fuels, as likely following a similar path. Coal began to be used in quantity about 200 years ago, in 1820. The economy grew, as oil and natural gas production was added. We seem to have hit a period of “Stagflation,” about 1970, which is 50 years ago. The timing might be right to enter the “Crisis” period, about now.

We don’t know how long such a Crisis Period might last this time. Early economies were very different from today’s economy. They didn’t depend on electricity, international trade or international finance in the same way that today’s world economy does. It is possible (in fact, fairly likely) that the downslope might occur more rapidly this time.

Past Crisis Periods seem to feature a high level of conflict because rising population leads to a situation where there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. According to Turchin and Nefedov, some features of the Crisis Periods included increased wage disparity, collapsing or overturned governments, debt defaults, inadequate tax revenue and epidemics. Economists tell us that there is a physics reason for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer during Crisis Periods; in some sense, the poor get “frozen out” and the wealth rises to the top, like steam.

Slide 8
Slide 9

Slide 9 is a chart I prepared several years ago, showing the growth in the world production of fuels of various types. What little wind and solar was available at that time was included in the biofuels section at the bottom. Early biofuels consisted largely of wood and charcoal used for heat.

Slide 10

Slide 10 shows average annual increases for 10-year periods corresponding to the periods shown on Slide 9. This chart goes to 2020, so it covers a full 200-year period. Note that the increases in energy consumption shown are especially high in the 1951-1960 and 1961-1970 periods. These periods occurred after World War II when the economy was growing especially rapidly.

Slide 11

Slide 11 is similar to Slide 10, except I divide the bars into two pieces. The bottom, blue part corresponds to the amount that population grew, on average, during this ten-year period. Whatever is left over I have referred to as the amount available to increase the standard of living, shown in red. A person can see that when the overall growth in energy consumption is high, population tends to rise rapidly. With more energy, it is possible to feed and clothe larger families.

Slide 12

Slide 12 is like Slide 11, except that it is an area chart. I have also added some notes regarding what went wrong when energy consumption growth was low or negative. An early dip occurred at the time of the US Civil War. There was a very long, low period later that corresponded to the period of World War I, World War II and the Depression. The collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union occurred in 1991, so it is part of the 10-year period ended 2000. Most recently, we have encountered COVID shutdowns.

The peaks, on the other hand, tended to be good times. The period leading up to 1910 corresponded to the time of early electrification. The period after World War II was a period of growth and rebuilding. Most recently, China and its large coal resources helped pull the world economy forward. China’s coal supply stopped growing about 2013. I have written that we can no longer depend on China’s economy to pull the world economy forward. With recent rolling blackouts in China (mentioned in the next section), this is becoming more evident.

Without enough energy, the current period is beginning to look more and more like the period that included World War I and II and the Great Depression. Strange outcomes can occur when there basically are not enough resources to go around.

Slide 13
Slide 14

Slide 14 shows recent energy production. A person can see from this slide that wind and solar aren’t really ramping up very much. A major problem is caused by the fact that wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first” and prices paid to other electricity producers are adjusted downward, to reflect the fact that their electricity is no longer needed by the grid. This approach tends to drive nuclear out of business because wholesale electricity rates tend to fall to very low levels, or become negative, when unneeded wind and solar are added. Nuclear power plants cannot easily shut down. Instead, the low prices tend to drive the nuclear power plants out of business. This is sad, because electricity from nuclear is far more stable, and thus more helpful to the grid, than electricity from wind or solar.

Slide 15

Fossil fuel producers need quite high energy prices for a variety of reasons. One of these reasons is simply because the easiest-to-extract resources were removed first. In recent years, producers have needed to move on to resources with a higher cost of extraction, thus raising their required selling prices. Wages of ordinary citizens haven’t kept up, making it hard for selling prices to rise sufficiently to cover the new higher costs.

Another issue is that fossil fuel energy prices need to cover far more than the cost of drilling the current well. Producers need to start to develop new areas to drill, years in advance of actually getting production from those sites. They need extra funds to work on these new sites.

Also, oil companies, especially, have historically paid high taxes. Besides regular income taxes, oil companies pay state taxes and royalty taxes. These taxes are a way of passing the “surplus energy” that is produced back to the rest of the economy, in the form of taxes. This is exactly the opposite of wind and solar that need subsidies of many kinds, especially the subsidy of “going first,” that drives other electricity providers out of business.

Prices for oil, coal and natural gas have been far lower than producers need, for a long time. The COVID shutdowns in 2020 made the problem worse. Now, with producers quitting at the same time the economy is trying to reopen, it is not surprising that some prices are spiking.

Slide 16

Most local US papers don’t tell much about world energy prices, but these are increasingly becoming a big problem. Natural gas is expensive to ship and store, so prices vary greatly around the world. US natural gas prices have roughly doubled from a year ago, but this is a far lower increase than many other parts of the world are experiencing. In fact, the bills that most US natural gas residential customers will receive will increase by far less than 100% because at the historic low price, over half of the price for residential service is distribution expenses, and such expenses don’t change very much.

Slide 17

Slide 17 shows another way of looking at data that is similar to that in Slide 14. This slide shows amounts on a per capita basis, with groupings I have chosen. I think of coal and oil as being pretty much the only energy resources that can “stand on their own.” The recent peak year for combined coal and oil, on a per capita basis, was 2008.

Natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric were the first add-ons. If a person looks closely, it can be seen that the growth rate of this group has slowed, at least in part because of the pricing problems caused by wind and solar.

The “green” sources at the bottom are growing, but from a very low base. The main reason for their growth is the subsidies they receive. If fossil fuels falter in any major way, it will adversely affect the growth of wind and solar. Already, there are articles about supply chain problems for the big wind turbines. Any cutback in subsidies is also harmful to their production.

Slide 18

US papers don’t tell us much about these problems, but they are getting to be very serious problems in other parts of the world. The countries with the biggest problems are the ones trying to import natural gas or coal. If an exporting country finds its own production falling short, it is likely to make certain that its own citizens are adequately supplied first, before providing exports to others. Thus, importing countries may find very high prices, or supplies simply not available.

Slide 19
Slide 20

This slide got a lot of laughs. The university does have some sort of agricultural plot, but teaching subsistence farming is not its goal.

Slide 21
Slide 22
Slide 23
Slide 24

My point about “scientists who are not pressured by the need for research grants or acceptance of written papers are the ones trying to tell the whole truth” got quite a few laughs. As a practical matter, this means that retired scientists tend to be disproportionately involved in trying to discern the truth.

With the military understanding the need to work around energy limits, one change has been to move away from preparation for “hot wars” to more interest in biological weapons, such as viruses. Thus, governments of many countries, including the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Australia and China, have funded research on making viruses more virulent. The vaccine-making industry also supported this effort because it might enhance the industry’s ability to make and sell more vaccines. It was believed that there might even be new techniques that would develop from this new technology that would increase the overall revenue generated by the healthcare industry.

Questions came up, both during the talk and later, about what other changes have taken place because of the need for much of the audience to hear a story with a happily ever after ending, and because of the known likely decline of the economy for physics reasons. Clearly one thing that happens is successful entrepreneurs, such as Elon Musk, aim their production in areas where subsidies will be available. With fossil fuel production not making money, fossil fuel producers are even willing to undertake renewable projects if subsidies seem to be high enough. The issue isn’t really, “What is sustainable?” It is much more, “Where will the profits be, given where subsidies will be, and what people are being taught about how to perceive today’s problems?”

Slide 25
Slide 26
Slide 27
Slide 28

In fact, what has been happening in recent years is that a great deal of debt has been added to the world economy. Mostly, this added debt seems to be creating added inflation. It definitely is not leading to the rapid extraction of a great deal more fossil fuels, which is what really would allow the production of more goods and services. If inflation leads to higher interest rates, this, by itself, could destabilize the financial system.

Slide 29

I tried to explain, as I have in the past, how a self-organizing economy works. New citizens are born, and old ones pass away. New businesses are formed, and they add new products, keeping in mind what products citizens want and can afford. Governments add laws and taxes, as situations change. Energy is needed at every step in production, so availability of inexpensive energy is important in the operation of the economy, as well. There are equivalences, such as employees tend also to be customers. If the wages of employees are high, they can afford to buy many goods and services; if wages are low, employees will be very restricted in what they can afford.

In some sense, the economy is hollow inside, because the economy will stop manufacturing unneeded products. If an economy starts making cars, for example, it will phase out products associated with transportation using horse and buggy.

Slide 30

A self-organizing economy clearly does not operate in the simple way economists seem to model the economy. Low prices can be just as big a problem as high prices, for example.

Another issue is that the energy needs of an economy seem to depend on its population and how far it has already been built up. For example, roads, bridges, water distribution pipelines and electricity transmission infrastructure must all be maintained, even if the population falls. We know humans need something like 2000 calories a day of food. Economies seem to have a similar constant need for energy, based on both the number of people in the economy and the amount of infrastructure that has been built up. There is no way to cut back very much, without the economy collapsing.

Slide 31

I am not exactly certain when the first discussion of the economy as a dissipative structure (self-organizing system powered by energy) started. When I prepared this slide, I was thinking that perhaps it was in 1996, when Yoshinori Shizoawa wrote a paper called Economy as a Dissipative Structure. However, when I did a search today, I encountered an earlier paper by Robert Ayres, written in 1988, also discussing the economy as a dissipative structure. So, the idea has been around for a very long time. But getting ideas from one part of academia to other parts of academia seems to be a very slow process.

Debt cannot grow indefinitely, either, because there needs to be a way for it to be paid back in a way that produces real goods and services. Without adequate energy supplies, it becomes impossible to produce the goods and services that consumers need.

Slide 32

Attendees asked about earlier posts that might be helpful in understanding our current predicament. This is the list I provided:

Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter Gatherers  – Dec. 2, 2020
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden – June 21, 2021
Energy Is the Economy; Shrinkage in Energy Supply Leads to Conflict – Nov. 9, 2020
Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible – July 17, 2020
The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion – Jan. 30, 2017

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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5,606 Responses to Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told

  1. Michael Le Merchant says:

    UK Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation advice to Government:
    1. Boosters for all aged 18-39
    2. Prioritise by Age/Condition
    3. Immunocompromised get 4th dose
    4. Use Moderna or Pfizer boosters
    5. Offer second jab to ages 12-15

    • Hm, sounds like the title of the dossier reads: “Operation Empty Britain”

      • Xabier says:

        Sounds like it, doesn’t it!

        Without people Britain might tidy up really quite nicely. Lots of still-lovely countryside; beautiful, grand old houses…….

        The Committee on Vaccinations, I recall, originally said there was no clinical reason to vaxx kids 12-15, but it went ahead on the spurious grounds of mental health, reducing disruption to their wonderful schooling, etc,

        But they now advocate a 2nd jab – his is utterly criminal!

        The 4th dose for the immuno-compromised does look more like an attempt to kill them in short order than anything else.

        • Halfvard says:

          Who ends up working the land as peasants in a post-industrial Britain though? The unjabbed?

          • Great question. Probably multi fold answer, they work towards multitude of favorable outcomes: if AI / robots and small scale techno supply chain hubs enabling it all won’t pan out then surely some sort of the surviving humanoids under the yoke..

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Immunocompromised get 4th dose

      norm — surely it must be time for dose 4…. it feels like just last month you got dose 3… oh right – it was last month…. hahahahaahhaahahahahahaahahahaha

      https://youtu.be/Rrr8YaQcI_A

  2. Harry McGibbs says:

    “‘Perfect storm’ created for global food collapse, panel hears.

    “Hikes in oil prices, conflicts, emerging diseases, poor governance, and disruption in supply chains due to transportation blockages during the pandemic have come together to create a potentially devastating scenario for the global food system, a panel on food security heard.”

    https://www.scidev.net/global/news/perfect-storm-created-for-food-collapse-panel-hears/

    • From the article:

      Globally, food prices are up nearly 33 per cent since the same period last year, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s monthly food price index released on 2 September.

      The World Food Programme estimates that, in the countries where it operates, some 272 million people are already – or are at risk of becoming – acutely food insecure due to the effects of the COVID-19 crisis.

      No one understands the far reaching effects of keeping people at home and laying off workers.

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Toyota’s Output Slumps 26% on Prolonged Supply-Chain Snarls…

    “The world’s No. 1 carmaker said Monday it produced 627,452 vehicles in October, down from 845,107 units a year earlier. Global sales also fell 20% for the month to 677,564 units. Japanese automakers have struggled to restore production…”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-29/toyota-s-output-slumps-26-on-prolonged-supply-chain-disruption

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Scary as it is, the argument that inflation is here to stay is winning.

    “As the IIF warns of a global inflation storm, the fear is that raising interest rates in response could spark a recession – when governments and central banks are out of ammunition.”

    https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3157556/scary-it-argument-inflation-here-stay-winning

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The US is facing an unlikely shortage: Santas.

    “… Allen said there are 10% fewer Santa Claus entertainers this year because some have died from COVID-19 and many aren’t doing events because of the pandemic. Many have also retired from the Santa game.”

    https://news.yahoo.com/us-facing-unlikely-shortage-santas-010958896.html

  6. Xabier says:

    The last mask-free day in England. Feels ominous – we are in the pipeline to vaxx passports and biometric checks in shops by the end of the winter, I am sure.

    How about this? In each of the three shops where I chatted to staff I heard about nasty reactions to the boosters.

    Common link: all had experienced no problem with the first 2 doses, only light fever or soreness if anything at all; but the boosters hit them like a hammer over the days following injection.

    One woman still has a bad pain under her arm/upper chest on the left, working but feeling awful. I suggested she shouldn’t let it drift and might need further tests, while trying not to alarm her to much.

    People are surprised and worried: GP’s are just saying ‘Take a paracetamol’. Criminal!

    • Yorchichan says:

      In Sainsbury today I’d estimate 80% wearing masks. Customers tend to be older. Most of the staff weren’t wearing. It’ll be interesting to see what the compliance is at the end of the week and whether mask police reappear at the entrance. Towards the end of the last mask mandate, the usual security guard always looked fed up at having to ask the uncovered to put a mask on. I’ll just start wearing my exemption lanyard once more, even though I feel like a coward for doing so.

      I’m still hoping for mass death of the vaccinated this winter. It remains our best hope of an uprising being triggered.

      • Minority of One says:

        An uprising would be awesome, but I am not optimistic about that, not here in the UK. The general population are way too docile and gullible. ‘Sheople’ springs to mind.

      • Xabier says:

        Not cowardly at all: one can only take so much and arguing the toss about masks at every shop would be exhausting.

        The elderly are very compliant about masks.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’m still hoping for mass death of the vaccinated this winter.

        How happy would that make everyone on OFW – norm dunc mike excepted… of course

    • Minority of One says:

      GPs are a disgrace.

    • According to JHK,

      Meanwhile, Virologist Barry Schoub, Chairman of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Committee on COVID-19 Vaccines, declared the new Omicron Coronavirus “mild.” Could it be that the whole hoary Covid-19 narrative is falling apart now? Could Dr. Fauci and his sleazy associates in the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the WHO, the Big Pharma C-suites, the grifting university research labs, the despicable social media combine, and yet more sinister outfits such as the CIA and the WEF — might this unholy host of villains and fixers find themselves on-the-run? And might Omicron represent for them some final grasp at the last straw of narrative control?

      • Artleads says:

        But if societies have found themselves so vulnerable to lies, won’t that invite endless similar narratives? People seem to be refusing to get a grip and make the necessary steps (assuming there are any) to organize themselves?

        • People love “happily ever after stories.” The problem is that we really don’t have solutions. The biggest thing we lose is current jobs. The solutions we have may provide jobs, but the jobs (without supplemental energy) don’t pay well.

          • Artleads says:

            Yes. My dream made it crystal clear that the biggest issue was the loss of jobs. (Jobs tied to a reasonable system of governance.) Which led to global criminal behavior where trust is impossible. Very frightening!

      • Xabier says:

        ‘On the run’ to their banks and secure bunkers, I fear: not from well-merited rough justice…..

    • Superbly written by Kunstler, indeed.

      Now, the problem being this piece rather falls unto his fictional writing portfolio, the idea “normies” are now just about to wake up and turn on their scheming masters for real is out of place, out of reality..

      Going more granular, e.g. the part about Austria supposedly just on its way of armed populous rebellion incl. joined police and army is laughable fantasy, as new minarets are popping up there with no restraint as we speak to begin with.

      I guess it’s the benefit or curse stemming from how Americans had it “easy” for past ~160yrs, when only token %of pop ventured into (foreign) wars – so JHK doesn’t have it internalized that civil conflict usually means only relative small factions duking it out in the open, while numerically dominant normies are just bystanders not wiling to join the melee.

      Simply, the plotters won, the de-growth and/or depop agenda won, case closed.

      At best the regime would wobble a bit and swiftly exchange the figure head for second T’s term or similar easy going make believe populist placeholder.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I’ve not had a single CovIDIOT come to me and say hey – I think you might be right

  7. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Mamma Mia!

    Italian PPI (Y/Y) Oct: 25.3% (prev 15.6%)
    – PPI (M/M) Oct: 9.4% (prev 1.9%)

  8. CTG says:

    62% Of Swiss Citizens Vote To Keep Covid Vaccine Passports

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/62-swiss-voters-chose-keep-covid-vaccine-passports

    I have no words. Very likely I am in a dream world. Over a course of millions of years of evolution and this is the dead-end that nature lead us to? Perhaps FE has some. Perhaps the following is true :

    ‘But there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated’

    • Student says:

      It is important to know that the official question of the ‘referendum’ was misleading, because it included also a financial help to firms and unemployed people.
      So, if you said NO to green pass, you said also NO to financial support.
      Also in Switzerland ‘they’ apply tricks.

      ‘Resta comunque il fatto che un terzo dei votanti ha bocciato il principio del certificato Covid e le norme legate al sostegno delle aziende e dei disoccupati contenute nella legge’

      https://www.rsi.ch/news/svizzera/Alle-urne-non-decidono-i-social-media-14900100.html

    • This is strange, but I suppose that if people have been brainwashed to believe that the unvaccinated are a risk, this is the result.

      I don’t know whether this had any effect. The article says,

      “The law voted on provides for more than just vaccine passports. It also expands financial support for citizens and businesses affected by the pandemic, a provision that may have won over some reluctant voters.”

      • Student says:

        Yes Gail, if during votation one refused passport, one was also obliged to refuse financial support for firms and unemplyed people.
        We have very close contact in Italy with speaking-Italian Switzerland part and this news has arrived in Italy too.
        It has been probably made like that on purpose.
        Of course also fear may have played another big part on the choice.
        But the above is a particular not known outside Switzerland.

  9. Fast Eddy says:

    Covid live news: WHO says ‘very high’ global risk from new strain; Portugal identifies 13 Omicron cases in Lisbon football team

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/nov/29/covid-live-news-omicron-variant-detected-in-canada-as-fauci-warns-two-weeks-needed-to-study-new-strain

  10. Fast Eddy says:

    Summary
    Six cases of the Omicron variant are detected in Scotland, taking the total to nine found in the UK so far
    Approval is expected to be given by the UK’s vaccine advisory body later for all adults to have Covid booster jabs
    Boosters are currently offered to over 40s, frontline health or social workers, and those with certain health issues
    Face masks will be required in shops and on public transport in England from Tuesday
    Pupils in Year 7 and above in England are advised to wear face coverings in communal areas
    Australia pauses the re-opening of its borders because of the Omicron variant
    Japan is one of the latest countries to reinstate travel restrictions, banning all foreigners from entering
    Health ministers from the G7 will hold urgent talks on Omicron later

    • Xabier says:

      An everyone, it seems,ignore what the Africans have said about it – mild disease only.

      Masks and restrictions back where they had been relaxed, and Boosters For All! Even though they cannot be relevant to a new strain if it is indeed vaxx-defying…….

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        This could be the strain to let ‘rip’. It will be interesting to see what they do when the data is in.

        > Could Omicron be GOOD news? Variant ‘might speed up end of pandemic if it causes mild illness’ as South Africa records NO hospital admissions or deaths from super strain – but scientists won’t know for at least two weeks

        NEW Professor Karl Lauterbach, a clinical epidemiologist, said early reports from South Africa that Omicron causes mild illness could make it a gift and may even speed up the end of the pandemic.

        https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10253611/Could-Omicron-GOOD-news-Variant-speed-end-pandemic-causes-mild-illness.html

        • Ed says:

          Mirror thanks for the possible Angle COVID info.

        • I would think getting the virus to transition to a much milder disease would be a major “win” in the battle against COVID.

          • Mirror on the wall says:

            Perhaps this variant could support worse mutations. Ideally, we would be able to predict which variant would be the best to let rip in view of its future mutations. Not that I really know much about the subject, but that would seem to be the ‘job’.

            Milder ones must sometimes mutate to more virulent, otherwise they would never get more virulent? And vice versa. Maybe there are ways to predict which ‘direction’ strains are liable to go in? I really could not say. In lieu of all that, it might make sense to let this one ‘rip’, but who knows?

            I fear that humans yet understand too little to even play viruses at the proper ‘game’ to ‘guide them’ toward milder strains. I am not seeing even any discussion of that ‘game’ of anticipating future mutations. Or perhaps the whole thing is too ‘random’ and inherently unpredictable – I really could not say.

            There may be other ‘games’ that we can play against the virus, in terms of which ones to let rip. As I say, don’t ask me!

        • Bobby says:

          Not if more non sterilizing vaccines eliminate mild strains, for example if the latest round of boosters kill off omicron, the law of cause and effect elects increasing resistance. For profit big phama Vs Mother Nature. She gives a mild reprimand at first and then she punches all jab’ons right in the solar plexus, then comes the upper cut to the face. BANG! Reality! Enjoy! ….Wake up

  11. Fast Eddy says:

    Because your mine
    I hold the line

    https://youtu.be/EQWYc3_vE0I

  12. JonF says:

    Any chartists here?

    Would it be a lot of work to do a daily chart for number of comments on OFW from Jan 2020 to Nov 2021?

    The idea would be to overlay this chart onto daily charts for S&P/Nasdaq/WTI/BTC etc.

    I’m wondering if there is an OFW market indicator tool?

    The process could be repeated for daily number of FE posts.

    Best case scenario: we find something useful and we all make a killing. Chip in a few mil each and create OFW free state….or just buy a corner of Georgia and rename it Tverberg county…..

    Any takers?

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Copy the top 1000 FE posts… put them in a book … make a billion dollars

      • if agitated sufficiently, paper breaks down into excellent compost

        i know a mushroom grower willing to pay top dollar for the best eddyrant paper

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I’d suggest using burned out brain dead geriatrics for making compost… but not if they are infused with Pfizer poison… nothing grows in that shit

          • on second thoughts i think ”the weekly eddy” would make an excellent publication—1000 rants a week would fill it out nicely.

            i’ve even come up with a perfect Shakespearean quote for its mast head, to give it the necessary gravitas

            Macbeth, Act 5 Scene 5
            It is a tale
            Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
            Signifying nothing.

            *******
            for the benefit of readers, the Weekly Eddy, will also require the OED definition of eddy:

            A circular movement of water causing a small whirlpool’

            ‘A circular movement of wind fog or smoke’

            ***

            I like the sound of it already—I’ll do an editorial for you if you like,

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Be sure to add the major planetary transits.

    • Add to the count the number of comments not let through by Gail. The percentage as well as the number seems to rise as the number of comments rises.

    • its not to late to participate in my wager that eddy will reach comment parity (1 eddypost for every post by everyone else) by february next year

  13. Fast Eddy says:

    The English data on vaccines and mortality, revisited
    Alex Berenson 16 hr ago
    872
    Last Saturday morning I posted a short post with a very simple chart – two lines in all.

    One line tracked the number of weekly deaths per 100,000 vaccinated people aged 10-59 in England. The other tracked the number of deaths per 100,000 unvaccinated people in England. The chart showed that vaccinated people in this age group were dying overall at a higher rate than unvaccinated people.

    I’m never exactly sure which posts will “land” – gain traction and go viral. This chart landed. Hard. Someone wrote me that it broke the Internet. It didn’t break the Internet, only Kim Kardashian’s ass can break the Internet, but it has rocketed around ever since. It has been seen over 800,000 times on this page alone and many millions more in screenshots and Twitter posts elsewhere.

    Clearly, the reason the chart has gained so much attention is that it quickly and simply provides a way for people who are concerned about the vaccines to provide apparent visual proof that they are increasing all-cause mortality – overall death rates.

    The chart has also engendered a fierce backlash from the usual fact-checkers and vaccine fanatics who say it is – wait for it – “misinformation.” (To be clear, I didn’t actually create the chart, but I checked the underlying British government report to make sure it accurately represents the report’s figures. It does, as everyone agrees.)

    https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/the-english-data-on-vaccines-and/comments

    • hillcountry says:

      Darts-4-Dollars Berenson. Hasn’t he been sufficiently outed? Bench his ass. Demote him to water-boy. Put him on the ground-crew or something that befits his talent. Before ya know it he’ll be trying to convince people that Auto-Immune is a Psychological Condition. Give ’em an inch…. sheesh!! You know, his schtick reminds me of what Mae Brussell said about LaRouche: “80-percent top-drawer information and 20% rat-poison”.

      https://wholistic.substack.com/p/dear-alex-berenson-downplaying-long

    • Of course, with the wide age range in this chart, it really doesn’t say much at all.

      I would like to see total non-covid deaths for the UK, and how they are trending.

        • This is the corresponding chart for the US, in a somewhat different form.

          https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/US-excess-deaths-chart-at-Nov-29-1024×434.png

          It is from this page
          https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

          The thing about the US chart is that it looks like total deaths were much higher than expected in both 2020 and 2021, if I am reading it correctly. I suppose a little of the effect is from the fact that the population keeps getting older. The base period is six years including 2019, so reflects to some extent a smaller, less old population.

          • For US mortality understanding I haven’t been going directly to the CDC rather been lookin at this dashboard (believe same data) because can filter to look at age groups and/or individual states easily

            https://www.usmortality.com/

            unfortunately US age brackets are different from UK age brackets

            Earlier today using an older 2007 US mortality report that had rates per 100k for age groups and
            the UK report that includes covid deaths of vaxxed vs unvaxxed for previous month (Eugyppius on Substack has been posting bar graphs)

            Using the UK 60 day Covid death rates per 100k it looks like for late oct – late nov

            60-70 yo vaxxed 8/mo unvaxxed 30/mo so approx net annual risk covid death unvaxxed

            (30-8)*12 ~= 284/100k per yr or 0.28% additional relative risk by no vax over vax risk (assuming no side effect risk)

            from 2007 US mortality table 55-64 & 65-75 linear interpolation (should be 2nd order but oh well) to estimate a typical mortality rate for 60-70 year interval and get approx 1.35%

            So assuming UK covid mortality rate in US as estimate I get estimate overall mortality rate w/ Covid around compared to typical mortality

            60-70 yo unvaxxed from ~1.45%/yr to ~1.81%
            60-70 yo vaxxed from ~1.45%/yr to ~1.52% (assumes no adverse death or injuries from vax)

            Consider US average mortality 60-70 yo ~1.45%
            but for Florida only ~1.35% (Colorado ~1.2%)

            so for 60-70yo the additional risk of being unvaccinated is of the similar order of magnitude as simply being in a different subpopulation group within the geographical US (0.28% vs 0.1%Fl-0.25%Co)

            If we were to look within the 60-70 distribution I would guess that the 80/20 rule could apply – 20% of that group would incur 80% of deaths (healthy vs comorbid, low vit d vs high vit d). To me, at this point the additional risk to a relatively healthy 65yo person becomes lost in uncertainty and rounding errors and see no justification for unknown risks of vaccine.

            ( Similar analysis for 70-80yo I got an increase from ~3.5% to ~4.1% for preCovid mortality rate vs ~ unvaccinated postCovid risk)

            Combine this info with estimates of Vax deaths & injuries from VAERS reporting and I believe that if the CDC did an honest actuarial assessment of risk that there is no justification for vaccination for any but the extremely vulnerable (and in even those cases probably better to use prophylaxis and restricted contacts/isolation) and those over some relatively older age (>75???)

            • Thanks for the link. I had never run across the website before. It seems to be a private organization that takes the detail data of the CDC and massages it, before it puts the data up. I am fairly sure it is somewhat different from the CDC, at least in terms of excess deaths. For example, it uses a five year band for prediction; the CDC started with a four-year band, then switched to a six year-band of historical data.

              I thought this ranking by state was interesting.
              https://www.usmortality.com/excess-ranking

              I get the definite impression is the states with a highest proportion of dark-skinned people that have the highest ranking for excess deaths. The states with mostly light-skinned people in the Midwest tend to come out well.

              Hawaii also comes out very well, mostly because it has been able to isolate itself from the virus.

          • https://www.usmortality.com/historical

            This plot does show that US mortality has been dropping since 2000 (and well before)

            2020 increase mortality including Covid only got us back to the mortality levels last seen in 2003

            This is even with an aging population – peak boomer births from 1957-1960 demographic still not reached 65 yet so relatively healthy so without covid I wouldnt have expected to see aging related increase in mortality until mid decade

            I did see a recent Harvard study/thesis that was published looking at data through 2018 in comparison to World 3 model runs. Showed higher actual birth rates and slightly lower death rates (still declining vs expected start of increase) than in previous model scenarios (pgs 42-43)

            https://dash.harvard.edu/handle/1/37364868

      • https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

        here is graphical dashboard – can look at age groups, cause death, etc left hand menu – shows both excess and total plots by week or can switch to cumulative (black text box top leftish)

        looks like cumulative rates for all causes up except respiratory disease

        did NOT see any breakout of vaxed vs unvaxed

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    “Omicron hits the mutation jackpot” – The South African Omicron variant is the first Covid variant to achieve immune escape from all three major antibody classes. Is it finally time to panic?

    The new Omicron variant, detected just a week ago in South Africa, now has become the first variant to achieve such an immune escape from all three major antibody classes, including a double mutation in the important class 2 region of the receptor binding domain (see table above).

    Although the final results are not yet available, this likely means that existing coronavirus vaccines, which are still based on the original 2019 Wuhan variant, will have significantly lower (but not zero) neutralization effectiveness against the Omicron variant.

    https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=372

    Bosscheeee……

    • Actually, opposite of what Bossche was forecasting. Much less virulent, probably.

      • Christopher says:

        Maybe less virulent to unvaccinated africans. Is’nt VB predicting suboptimal immune response among the vaccinated? We will see if this comes true with the omikron variant.

        • That is what I took away from the “International Conference” from a couple of days ago (UK MD moderator, Bossche, US female PhD Virologist, US older male MD, and German MD?)

          Last 1/3 of panel discussion focused on impact of vax (monovalent adaptive immunity bloodstream/tissues-poor antibodies) when most important immunity is multivalent innate immunity nasal/respiratory tissues preinfection) or multivalent adaptive immunity from natural exposure/infection

          Vax inhibits innate immunity primary infection & provides poor response to progressive infection/disease which leads to poorer overall response in normally healthy people if they had simply relied on their innate immunity without vax

          They all recommended immediate end to general vax program, protection of vulnerable and emphasis on nutrition/supplements/health improvement (vit c, d, zinc, selenium) exercise and after some hemming and hawing they also discussed early treatment and know therapuetics (ivermectin HCQ etc)

          They were also very against the newly developed/repurposed oral meds that Merck & Pfizer are in process of releasing

          Discussion of letting virus omicron variant spread and act as nasal vaccine:

          https://youtu.be/u0ad28_arr0?t=4450

      • Xabier says:

        It would seem to hinge on how far multiple injections have injured immune systems, more than on the deadliness or otherwise of the variant if it exists.

        Pushing boosters on all adults ‘to beat Omnicron’ seems utterly reckless, unless……

        Headlines I saw today indicated a whole new vaxx will be cooked up for this in 2022, to come after people are maxed-out with boosters,

        • Minority of One says:

          There have been some reports of recent, I presume from published papers and posted here, that some vaxxed people are heading towards a condition not dissimilar to AIDS i.e. their innate immune system is shafted. Thus as you say, maybe it is not a particularly nasty variant that will kill lots of people off, but a milder variant for which those with AIDS-like symptoms have no resistance? And to top it off, Antibody-dependent enhancement.

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    ‘It’s coming’: New York governor declares state of emergency over new Omicron variant

    ‘I urge New Yorkers to take advantage of our greatest weapon in the pandemic: the vaccine’

    If it is such a great weapon why are we have massive waves of covid?

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    The Governor of New York state, Kathy Hochul (pictured), has signed an executive order declaring a state of emergency, which won’t be lifted until at least January 15th. Fears over the new Omicron variant have persuaded the Governor to act, with Hochul tweeting that: “While the new Omicron variant has yet to be detected in New York state, it’s coming.”

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-omicron-variant-b1965340.html

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Omicron Variant Spreads to Denmark And The Netherlands – And Could Lead to Restrictions Tightening in Europe

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/11/28/omicron-variant-spreads-to-denmark-and-the-netherlands-and-could-lead-to-restrictions-tightening-in-europe/

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Sajid Javid Says the U.K. Is “Nowhere Near” a Return to Full Lockdown Measures

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/11/28/sajid-javid-says-the-u-k-is-nowhere-near-a-return-to-full-lockdown-measures/

    Lockdown imminent

    • Minority of One says:

      “Lockdown imminent”

      Correct.
      When he was quoted as saying “Nowhere Near” he meant ““Nowhere Near, today”

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    NHS Chief Stephen Powis Claims the “Overwhelming Majority” of Covid ICU Patients are Unvaccinated. But Is He Using Out-of-Date Data From July?

    https://dailysceptic.org/2021/11/28/nhs-chief-stephen-powis-claims-the-overwhelming-majority-of-covid-icu-patients-are-unvaccinated-but-is-he-using-out-of-date-data-from-july/

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    In a late addition to the raft of Covid restrictions announced by the Prime Minister yesterday, the Department for Education has issued new guidance today requiring secondary school students to wear masks in communal areas starting tomorrow.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10251719/Secondary-school-pupils-wear-masks-communal-areas-Department-Education-announces.html

    hahahahahahahahaha

    • Yorchichan says:

      A recent letter from my daughter’s school:

      Dear Parents and Carers,

      A brief bulletin this week, and focused update email with one core message for students going into a new week.

      Respect.

      As I have unfortunately had to be off work all week having tested positive on Monday (I return Thursday this week) it has been great to see students continuing to raise money for charity and to be able to send off some more UCAS applications as well as hearing about some Oxford / Cambridge interview invitations.

      Unfortunately not all of the feedback I have received has been so positive, and frustratingly some of it paints a small number of the sixth form in a bad light, which I would like all students to reflect on and show our very best sides this week. We are continuing to see case numbers rise in school, which now includes multiple staff which is putting additional workload onto colleagues in the building. I am most grateful to Miss C and Ms E in particular for taking up additional tasks in my absence.

      This is why hearing about sixth form students continuing to be difficult about wearing a mask (unless exempt) or being rude to duty staff at break / lunchtime is especially frustrating. My colleagues in the kitchen, the site and cleaning teams as well as teaching and admin staff are all working hard to maintain a normally functioning school in challenging circumstances. We may not all agree on the measures that schools are being told to administer by local authorities and public health teams, however it is important that we as a community work together to safeguard the school community. Our kitchen staff serve between 500 and 600 students over the day at close quarters and to mitigate risk and reassure these staff as well as reduce transmission amongst students we are asking all non-exempt students and staff to wear a mask while they move around school and in the kitchen and queue area. Sixth form students remain stubborn in not automatically adhering to this and we are having to ask them repeatedly to take this small individual measure. I also had feedback from a colleague that large numbers of sixth form students were in the servery on Friday breaktime with, many with no masks, and then being rude and or ignoring requests from multiple staff to put them on and queue more sensibly. This is not acceptable, and if I had names to come back to individuals I would be doing this (and will be in future as well).

      Many sixth form students have part time jobs and understand the frustration of people being rude unnecessarily, I’d like to ask all students to deal with all of my colleagues with the same level of respect they would expect to be given for just doing their job, which I don’t think is too much to ask.

      This week, and going forwards, all sixth form students should queue in the designated queuing area by the stairs in the hub, even when going down to the kitchen (no more than 5 minutes) early. They should wait to be called forwards to enter the servery and be waiting with masks on in the queue. Sixth form students have the benefit going through first, and do not need to all pile in together, they can still wait sensibly like everyone else until there is sufficient space for them to enter the small servery area.

      I’d like to hear that students have been polite, respectful and patient in the kitchen area this week – it is not much to ask and I would hope that all our students can manage this.

      I would like to extend my thanks to A, C and the sixth form committee for tidying the common room at the end of each day this week – Miss C has told me that they have done a great job, and even sent me some photos of a lovely tidy room at the end of one day last week!

      I have some thank you cards in the office that I will make available to students at the end of the week to write for staff who have helped them this term, to show our staff how much they are appreciated by the student body.

      Many thanks

      Haha. Keep it up sixth formers!

      • Xabier says:

        Good for them! But such an imbecile of a head teacher, my God!

        ‘Let’s all go politely to our doom without making any fuss……’

        • Yorchichan says:

          The school’s not the best, but my children are/were happy there. I already messaged the headmaster accusing him of child abuse by enforcing mask mandates. Surprisingly, I did get a long reply. I won’t bore everyone with it, but basically he says the school is following advice from City of York Council’s public health team. This advice is there is evidence that mask wearing, hand sanitizer use and good ventilation (i.e. open windows in the middle of winter) reduce the spread of covid19.

          I could write back asking to see the evidence, maybe with a link to graphs showing mask mandates had no discernible effect on covid cases and a link to the dangers of frequent use of hand sanitizer, but clearly it would do no good.

          • Xabier says:

            I’m sure the headmaster believes he is doing his best.

            And the local health people trust, of course, the Chief Medical Officer of England, and are obliged to follow his lead.

            Introducing Totalitarianism under the guise of a medical emergency was quite brilliant.

            All the little cogs start turning once set in motion by just one man or woman at the top of the system.

            And the whole thing is wrapped in the mystery of ‘science’………

      • Bei Dawei says:

        “Respect”?! Whatever happened to traditional salutations, like “Yo”?

    • Bei Dawei says:

      Masks are one of the reasons why Taiwan has been so successful in bringing the virus under control. Really, I don’t understand why every country didn’t require them like, two years ago

      • You already answered your own question by “masks are [one of the reasons] why..”

        It’s evidently for mix or reasons at play, incl. overall living standard (not meant as frivolous opulence) braking down into subcat: diet, hygiene, .. , masks, etc..

        For example lot of people are wearing wrong masks (no real filtration), and or using it too long or even half down all the time – still in/ex-haling through nose etc.. Masks are primarily good if venturing into crowds where close range forceful coughing accidents towards you could happen anytime and quicker than you could react, step aside, turn head sideways deflecting the infectious loaded spray cloud etc. But again, masks are perhaps “only” ~1/4th of prevention.. and eventually even way less if they deliver the end of times specimen..

        • Bei Dawei says:

          Okay, I’ll take one-fourth of a solution. In the USA that would have saved more than 250,000 lives.

          Not everything Taiwan has done is something that the USA could have imitated. (For one thing, they have no real national health system.) But they half-assed it on everything, and it shows,

          • Bei Dawei says:

            Correction: 200,000. (One-fourth of 800,000, the current number of US Covid deaths.)

            • 800k seems not genuine-realistic data as it likely incl. misrepresentation of co-morbidity in already seriously ill, seasonal flue toll and various planned-canceled surgeries and therapies..

            • Bei Dawei says:

              True, but whatever the true number (be it lower or higher), the number who could have been saved by following sensible precautions, is surely something on that order of magnitude.

        • Yorchichan says:

          “Pin the date of the introduction of mask mandate” could replace “pin the tail on the donkey” at children’s parties, then there would be no need for a blindfold.

  21. Michael Le Merchant says:

    2020 vibes are starting to reappear

    Japan’s government will effectively ban the entry of all foreign visitors into the country as part of its plan to strenghten border controls, broadcaster NTV reports, citing an unidentified government official.

    • drb says:

      Source please? I just got back into Japan and noticed a relaxation of quarantine rules.

    • Lastcall says:

      Time is circular, thats why a clock is round (analogue).

      ‘Their rule is known as the Edo period, where Japan experienced political stability, internal peace, and economic growth brought by the strict Sakoku guidelines. … It was during his rule that Japan crucified Christians, expelled Europeans from the country, and closed the borders of the country to the outside world.’

      So whats new …

      • Lastcall says:

        Sorry, forgot the OFW disclaimer…

        ‘But there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.’

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Just in case some forget who said that:

          ‘But there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated’ wise mike

          • drb says:

            There is no harm in keeping your posts below 20 a day, in order to spare the time of the unvaccinated, whose life is already more complicated than the rest.

      • Bei Dawei says:

        Let he whose country committed no atrocities during the 17th to 19th centuries, cast the first stone.

      • Internal peace seems to come by getting rid of all dissent. This would be not too different from following precisely a particular set of religious teachings.

        I have read that in Japan, teachers are much less tolerant of unusual behavior, such as that by autistic student. They actively work to stamp it out, sometimes using techniques that we in the West would consider unacceptable.

  22. Fast Eddy says:

    Pfizer heart? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tributes-pour-in-after-unfiltered-founder-jake-millar-dies-aged-26/Z7RNVDSJSZCE57UH4TG7BQIFQY/

    Either that or the investors who gave him 4M which he turned into 82k bumped him

  23. Michael Le Merchant says:

    ‘It’s terrifying but it’s a COINCIDENCE’: Leading cardiologist says footballers should not panic after five high-profile collapses – insists all players need to be checked” ONLY FIVE WAS IT??
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-10244297/Leading-cardiologist-says-cluster-collapses-footballers-likely-coincidence.html

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The thing is… CovIDIOTS will believe this.

      If half the Premier League collapsed… it would be a coincidence

    • stu says:

      top comment:

      Were all these players vaccinated? If so then surely questions must be asked if there is a link with the vaccine to these heart issues? Let’s start connecting the dots!

  24. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Beijing Capitulates: Urges Local Govts To Unleash Debt Flood As Cities Begin Backstopping Property Developers
    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/beijing-capitulates-urges-local-govts-unleash-debt-flood-cities-begin-backstopping-property

    • MonkeyBusiness says:

      So predictable. Last time around Charles Hugh Smith predicted that Beijing would not bail out the property sector, but I said that Beijing simply CAN NOT be seen as the cause of the next collapse. Once it’s clear that collapse is under way, then they’ll throw the entire sector to the wall.

    • Sounds like the approach every government, everywhere, will try to use, if they can get away with it.

      Promises of future goods and services made with energy products are almost as good as the real thing, until there is a real shortage of energy products and broken supply lines. Then things start falling apart.

      • wonderful typo from that link:

        >>>>All this, of course, is happening as the recent deep freeze of China’s property market – the largest asses in the world according to Goldman Sachs…<<<<<

        at least I think it was a typo

  25. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Ocular Manifestations after Receiving COVID-19 Vaccine: A Systematic Review
    https://www.mdpi.com/2076-393X/9/12/1404/htm

    • Adonis says:

      Sounds like the immune system is attacking a persons vision imagine a shiteload of blind people maybe thats their plan a blind population would use less fossil energy and be easier to control

    • hillcountry says:

      Thanks for that link.

      Snip from the paper:

      “OCT of the right eye showed serous macular detachment of the neurosensory retina. On fluorescein angiography (FA), a single point of leakage was noted following the ink-blot pattern. He was diagnosed with central serous retinopathy in the right eye”

      Downright nasty result.

      Conjecture:

      Immune Privilege and Eye-Derived T-Regulatory Cells – PMC (nih.gov)

      “Thus, overall, these findings indicate that TGF-β and retinoic acid interact to induce Tregs for immunological regulation in the eye (Figure 2).”

      So, what could happen if excess retinoic acid is introduced into the normal status of the eye in general and the retina specifically (exogenously, via inoculation). Beyond the immunological effects in that paper, it’s known to “burn” tissue in the case of eczema. It can easily cause atrophy of Meibomian glands. There’s little doubt it could cause a “single point of leakage” and “serous macular detachment” at least from what I’ve been able to glean from the literature.

    • Of course, the argument (in the paper) is that such symptoms are much less likely with the vaccine than with the illness itself, so the important thing is to get vaccinated.

  26. Ed says:

    I do wish TPTB would start securing the spent fuel ponds.

    • Adonis says:

      There is a long way to go negative interest rates will keep the system on life support those spent fuel pools will either be prioritized before everything else and eventually be transferred to a safer location probably underground specially built for it have no fear the elders are here.

      • drb says:

        There are potential problems such as if the diesel supply to the sites gets interrupted. Negative rates do not directly affect these events. Plus, there is the problem that, in an emergency, you can not take the spent cores out of water in a hurry. They will just catch fire.

        I have been thinking about this. First, solving this problem is a long term project. For every spent core that you produce, you have to wait 10 years, though it can be probably less (but still years) if we are in a real hurry. IMHO, best solution would be air cooled repository sites in a place like Acatama.

    • Michael Le Merchant says:

      1,237 Spent fuel cooling centers would evaporate after a few weeks if crews are not able to maintain them after an EMP. (Bio-weapons, Cyber attack, regular nuclear war, financial collapse)

      Unmaintained Nuclear reactors & spent fuel meltdowns release radiation on scales much longer than nuclear weapons.

      Greater than 130 spent fuel & reactor meltdowns in a month would create intense fires. The release of ionizing radiation at that rate and above (451 reactors globally) would oxidize & destroy Ozone layers.

  27. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Australian MP Calls on Citizens to Revolt – Compares Leaders to Hitler and Stalin (Video)
    https://rairfoundation.com/uprising-australian-mp-calls-on-citizens-to-revolt-compares-leaders-to-hitler-and-stalin-video/

    • Adonis says:

      Unfortunately we are at the stage where a stalin or hitler response may be the worlds only chance to avoid the madmax world becoming your new reality

      • Bobby says:

        Tina Turners’ We don’t need another hero Vs The theatre of war with its assorted condiments, Holodomor, Fire bombings and Holocausts?

        Dictators invoke extremely regrettable reality. Madmax was just entertainment to avoid it.

    • Bobby says:

      Well it shouldn’t be up to New Zealanders to tell you Oozes, but you need to sort out your crap. This isn’t Gallipoli, this is your back door step. You all need to to take some diggers and rip up the sewer mains right out side parliament so they can smell their own sh’T

  28. Adonis says:

    Agenda 2030 their plan will not fail unless the energy disappears from what i can see it seems that the cull will proceed for the next 9 years aka the jab maybe the plan is 200 million by 2050 left .

    • Yes, tempus fugit, ~2021 and part of the world is already on pseudo UBI.. (xy% of lost income compensation for not working), by ~2025 one should expect mere mortals not able to drive their fossil fuel cars, EVs only eligible for the essential personnel. And by ~2030 .. ?

  29. Bobby says:

    Ahhh a new variant.. let’s make things scary by saying quickly mutating instead of just changing.

    I got up this morning it was cloudy at first, but the weather quickly mutated into a fine day.
    Hope you all get a chance to enjoy it🙏

  30. jj says:

    I found the genome mapping charts here that Yoshua posted fascinating.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1464353224417325066

  31. Azure Kingfisher says:

    “The Omicron Variant” – Magic pills, or solving the Africa problem?,” by Kit Knightly:

    AFRICA

    “It’s interesting that the new variant has allegedly come from Africa, perhaps ‘mutating in the body of an AIDS patient’, since Africa has been the biggest hole in the Covid narrative for well over a year.

    “Africa is by far the poorest continent, it is densely populated, malnourishment and extreme poverty are endemic across many African nations, and it is home to more AIDS patients than the entire rest of the world combined. And yet, no Covid crisis.

    “This is a weak point in the story, and always has been.

    “Last Summer, the UK’s virus modeller-in-chief Neil Ferguson attempted to explain it by arguing that African nations have, on average, younger populations than the rest of the world, and Covid is only a threat to the elderly. But five minutes of common sense debunks that idea.

    “The reason Africa has a younger population, on average, is that – on average – they are much sicker.

    “There are diseases endemic to large parts of Africa that are all but wiped out in most of the Western world. Cholera, typhus, yellow fever, tuberculosis, malaria. Access to clean water, and healthcare are also much more limited.

    “And while it has been nailed into the public mind that being elderly is the biggest risk factor for Covid, that is inaccurate. In fact, the biggest risk factor for dying ‘of Covid’ is, and always has been, already dying of something else.

    “The truth is that any REAL dangerous respiratory virus would have cut a bloody swath across the entire continent.

    “Instead, as recently as last week, we were getting articles about how Africa ‘escaped Covid’, and the continent’s low covid deaths with only 6% of people vaccinated is ‘mystifying’ and ‘baffling’ scientists.

    “Politically, African nations have shown themselves far less likely to buy into the ‘pandemic’ narrative than their European, Asian or American counterparts. At least two ‘Covid denying’ African presidents – Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi and John Magufuli of Tanzania – have died suddenly in the last year, and seen their successors immediately reverse their Covid policies.

    “So maybe the Omicron Variant is a way of trying to fold Africa into the Covid narrative that the other continents have already fully embraced. That will become clear as the story develops.

    “Of course, it’s also true that being ‘African’ is media shorthand for being scary, relying on the deeply-seated xenophobia of Western audiences. See: ‘Africanized killer bees’.

    “But, either way, Africa is the long game. There’s a more obvious, and more cynical, short term agenda here.”

    https://off-guardian.org/2021/11/27/the-omicron-variant-magic-pills-or-solving-the-africa-problem/

  32. Student says:

    ‘South Arica to Israel: Vaccine effective against Omicron variant’.

    Now we have the explanation about why ‘they’ created this new panic.
    Let’s not forget that ‘they’ were at the starting phase of selling jabs to children..

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/317738

    • Student says:

      Omicron variant arrives perfectly on time to go on pushing vaccines.
      ‘Dr. Anthony Fauci has described the Omicron variant of Covid-19 as a ‘clarion call’ to get people vaccinated.’
      Fauci keeps on winning.

      https://www.rt.com/usa/541566-fauci-omicron-variant-vaccines/

      • It is all about learning how to spin the story to advance Fauci’s cause.

      • Xabier says:

        They have to do something: there is a stubborn, informed and intelligent, group resisting the vaxx; more who have been vaxxed are cautious about boosters, young children still need to be done, and the crucial CBDC deadline draws ever nearer – and that won’t wok without 100% in the system, and most vaxxed.

    • Do the vaccines keep the disease mild, or is the Omicron illness naturally mild? I am wondering if the people in Israel really know. How large a sample do they have of people who were not vaccinated, with the illness?

  33. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Johns Hopkins ‘Dark Winter’ Video Game Played by Millions

    Played by millions, some of the most popular games in the world have been created and inspired by our own governments and medical authorities. Like the film industry, games offer them the chance to subject mass audiences to propaganda and political messaging. Games like ‘The Division’ and ‘Plague Inc.’ get us to play along with their “Shakespearean death plays” and help to normalize their “fictitious” pandemic table-top exercises.
    https://freeworldnews.tv/watch?id=61a3c321ac365c6d6ddfee62

  34. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Omicron epicenter of Gauteng Province, South Africa, there is more than **tripling of COVID19 hospitalizations** in 2 weeks-from 135 hospital admissions to 418.
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFTcPdiXMAEZcGM?format=jpg&name=large

  35. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Russian Senator Dzhabarov: Russia will intercede for Belarus in case of NATO aggression If Minsk asks for help.

  36. Michael Le Merchant says:

    What could be the cause? Hmmm…
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FFS6w7xX0AIGoYN?format=jpg&name=medium

    • Or perhaps the vaccine? Never mentioned!

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Physical activity may increase heart attack risk.

      Oh ya I guess if Pfizer has Pf789ed your heart then if you just lay on the sofa and watch TV forever you’ll be just fine…

      The slightest bit of exertion will result in death.

      Jeeeeeezuz mother of mary!!!!

  37. Student says:

    South African doctor who flagged Omicron claims variant not causing serious illness

    https://www.timesofisrael.com/south-african-doctor-who-flagged-omicron-claims-variant-not-causing-serious-illness/

  38. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Polish PM warns of Ukrainian energy crisis caused by Russia
    https://www.thefirstnews.com/article/polish-pm-warns-of-ukrainian-energy-crisis-caused-by-russia-26405

  39. jj says:

    From the jj blogging dictionary (non conspiracy theorist edition).

    Omni; all encompassing

  40. Michael Le Merchant says:

    Botswana: Omicron found in foreign diplomats, but visiting from where?
    https://africatimes.com/2021/11/28/botswana-says-covid-variant-found-in-visiting-diplomats-but-from-where/

    • Fast Eddy says:

      They probably came from the CDC HQ or Wuhan

    • Fast Eddy says:

      The Ministry of Education is apologising to an early childhood education chain for failing to address a Covid outbreak at an Auckland daycare centre which left a dozen pre-schoolers and adults infected with the virus.

      However, a person close to BestStart’s Glen Innes centre has told the New Zealand Herald the ministry should be apologising to parents whose children as young as eight months old are battling the virus.

      The four adults with the virus comprise two staff members and their respective partners, however, it is believed a parent of one of the children has tested positive.

      It is understood two of the 12 Covid-positive people were quite unwell and called ambulances, but did not require hospital care. It wasn’t clear whether they were children or adults.

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-apology-after-beststart-covid-cluster-hits-babies-as-young-as-eight-months-old/WS3E2RRB42QHOYLISUJGCIK3O4/

      Wanna bet these are all or mostly false positives… I watched an NZ doctor explain that most of the tests are generating false positives… nobody ever asks if these people are actually sick… and there is no way to find out.

      Govts can just make up whatever they want… how can it be verified?

      • Perhaps the issue is that the new variant only gives very light cases. These aren’t false positives. These are just the light cases we should expect from omicron. If these cases give immunity from further infection, they may be a good alternative to vaccination.

  41. Sam says:

    Here is what the story will be Covid Peter’s out and now we have to face the real problems massive debt and no more tools to fix it. Covid is done … so pace yourself ofwers. Davidayear has been right . Everyone got so excited thinking this was it😆

    • Slow Paul says:

      Debt is an abstract problem, or more like a symptom than the disease itself. Our real problem is running out of cheap energy.

      5000 posts, that’s a new record. Could this be the dreaded moment of peak replies?

      • drb says:

        On to 6000.

      • Alex says:

        Debt is an abstract problem until a country defaults or its currency becomes worthless.

        The number of posts is nominal, not inflation-adjusted.

        • Systemic countries* don’t really default anyway..
          And when the situation gets so out of hand they start to fold you/we will have very different set of problems then.

          __
          * while semi-periphery defaults all the time and it’s not a big deal in the global macro zoomed out perspective

    • Lidia17 says:

      Sam, they are going to keep pulling this “Omicron” and then the “smallpox” is on deck warming up.. Pfizer just said 100 days before the new Omicron jab.

      Pfizer in 100-Day Race For Omicron Vaccine as World Seeks to Contain Variant
      https://www.newsweek.com/pfizer-omicron-vaccine-covid-19-1653668

      This is the variant that they said was super-deadly and super-transmissible when they had ID’d a whopping six cases (or was it four?).

      They have a LOT of road left to run with this vacxing enterprise. Expect much more in this space, I’d say.

      • TIm Groves says:

        Here’s a clue.

        An anagram of OMICRON is MORONIC.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          The PR Team has a sense of humour!

          Also they are probably monitoring all of Fast Eddy’s posts — and marvelling at how he has worked out what their game is…. as they get a kick out of him

          In honour of FE and his liberal use of MOREON … they named the latest mutation that….

          I keep seeing this … it was on a bill board this morning — what’s it all about?

          ‘But there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.’

          • Lidia17 says:

            “there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views and be able to get around more easily than the unvaccinated.”

            Bwah ha ha ha ha ha!

            “”there is no harm in getting vaccinated in order to fit in with the governmental views

            • Fast Eddy says:

              There is no harm in being marched off to the ovens of Auschwitz because the government said they were serving hot pies

      • Student says:

        Interesting, thank you.
        That news from Newsweek is connected with the following news appeared in Juny 2021:

        ‘G7 countries and guests will be joined by Sir Patrick Vallance and Melinda French Gates who will present their ‘100 day mission’ to speed up the time it takes to develop vaccines, treatments and diagnostics’

        https://www.gov.uk/government/news/g7-leaders-to-agree-landmark-global-health-declaration-12-june-2021

        • Xabier says:

          If it takes ‘100 days’ to make and produce a new vaxx, that can serve as a pretext for 3- month lock-downs.

          Any idea that Melinda Gates by divorcing Bill is distancing herself from genocide is nonsense.

          She was the one who leered evilly when he mentioned thenext pandemic which would make people sit up – just watch the video…..

  42. Sam says:

    Yup

  43. jj says:

    Muskrat Suzy; Have you seen the new Omicron movie? I hear it has 30 genome mutations.

    Muskrat Sam; No I havnt, Is it a nu release?

    HA

    Pangolins in Botswana now? This terrible pangolin problem must be addressed!

  44. MG says:

    “People in the tropics have developed dark skin to block out the sun and protect their body’s folate reserves.”

  45. JJ says:

    Ed your # 5000 I think.

    ya ya YA YA YA YA YA hip Hip HOOOraY

    I hereby anoint Edward honary poohBAH status forthwith with all attending gratuities.

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