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Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order that, over the long term, will support higher prices for fossil fuels, especially oil. Such an economy would probably be centered on Russia and China. The rest of the world economy, to the extent that it continues to exist, will largely have to get along without fossil fuels, other than the fossil fuels that countries continue to produce for themselves. Population and living standards will fall in most of the world.
If a Russia-and-China-centric economy can be developed, the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency. Trade will be in the currency of the new Russia-China block. Outside of this block, local currencies will play a dominant role. Most of today’s debt will ultimately be defaulted upon; to the extent that this debt is replaced, it will be replaced with debt in local currencies.
As I see the situation, the underlying problem is the fact that, on a world basis, energy consumption per capita is shrinking. Energy consumption is essential for creating goods and services.
The shrinking amount of energy per person means that, on average, fewer and fewer finished goods and services can be produced for each person. Some countries do better than average; others do worse. With low fossil fuel prices, Russia has been faring worse than average; it wants to remedy the situation with long-term higher energy prices. If Russia can start transferring its energy exports to China, perhaps the new Russia-China economy, with limited support from the rest of the world, can afford to pay Russia the high prices for fossil fuels that Russia requires to maintain its economy.
In this post, I will try to explain what I see is happening.
[1] It appears that Russia now fears that it is near collapse, not too different from the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. Such a collapse would lead to a huge drop in Russia’s living standards, even from today’s relatively low level.
If we look back at the Soviet Union’s energy consumption, we see a strange pattern. The Soviet Union’s energy consumption rose rapidly in the period after World War II. It became a military rival of the US, as its energy consumption grew in the 1965 to 1985 period. Its energy consumption leveled off before the central government collapsed in 1991. In fact, energy consumption has never gotten back to its level in the late 1980s.
[2] The thing that seems to have been behind the 1991 collapse is the same thing that seems to be behind Russia’s current fear of collapse: continued low oil prices.
When we look back at inflation-adjusted oil prices, we see that a long period of low prices preceded this collapse. These low prices were harmful in many ways. They reduced funds for reinvestment, which led to the collapse in oil supply. They reduced the funds available to pay wages. They also reduced the tax revenue that the Soviet Union could collect.
I believe that these chronically low oil prices ultimately brought down the top layer of the government of the Soviet Union. This is because of the physics of the situation. It takes energy to provide the services of the top level of the government. As the total energy that could be purchased by the system fell because of low prices received for exports, it became impossible to support this top level of governmental services. This top layer was less essential than the lower levels of government, so it fell away.
In recent times, there has also been a long period of low prices, since about 2013:
Unless this pattern of low prices can be reversed quickly, Russia as a political entity could collapse. Exports of all of the goods it now produces would likely fall.
[3] While oil prices depend on “supply and demand,” as a practical matter, demand is very dependent on interest rates and debt levels. The higher the debt level and the lower the interest rate, the higher the price of oil can rise.
If we look back at Figure 4, we can see that before the US subprime housing bubble popped in 2008, inflation-adjusted oil prices were able to rise to $157 per barrel, adjusted to the 2020 price level. Once the debt bubble popped, inflation-adjusted oil prices fell to $49 per barrel. It was at this low point (and correspondingly low prices for many other commodities) that the US started its program of Quantitative Easing (QE) to lower interest rates.
After two years of QE, oil prices were back above $140 per barrel, in inflation-adjusted prices, but these soon started sliding down. By the time oil prices dropped to $120 per barrel, oil companies started to complain that prices were falling too low to meet all of their needs, including the need to drill in ever less productive areas. Now we are at a point where interest rates are about as low as they can go. Short-term interest rates are near zero, which is where they were in the late 1930s.
The quantity of funds in people’s checking and savings accounts is at an extraordinarily high level, as well. This is partly because of the availability of debt at these low interest rates.
Thus, even before the Ukrainian invasion, oil prices were raised about as high as they could go, through low interest rates and generous debt availability. With all this stimulus, Brent Spot Oil prices averaged $86.51 in January 2022. Even now, with all the disruption of the attack by Russia against Ukraine, oil prices are below the $120 threshold that producers seem to need. This price issue, plus the corresponding low-price issues for natural gas and coal, is the problem that Russia is concerned about.
Prices for imported coal and natural gas have bounced very high in the last few months, but no one expects these high prices to last. For one thing, they are too high for the European manufacturers that use imported coal or natural gas to stay in business. For example, producers that create urea fertilizer using natural gas find that the price of fertilizer produced in this way is way too high for farmers to afford. For another, the electricity produced by burning the high-priced natural gas or coal tends to be too expensive for European households to afford.
[4] The fundamental problem behind recent low oil prices is the fact that the current mix of consumers cannot afford goods and services produced using the high oil prices that producers, such as Russia, need to operate, pay high enough wages, and do adequate reinvestment.
When the price of oil was very low, back before 1970 (see Figure 3), it was relatively easy for consumers to afford goods and services made with oil. This was the period when the world economy was growing rapidly, and many people could afford to purchase automobiles and buy the oil products needed to operate them.
Once the cost of oil extraction started rising because of depletion, it became more and more difficult to keep prices both:
- High enough for oil producers, such as Russia, and
- Low enough to make affordable goods for consumers, as was possible prior to 1970
To try to hide the increasingly difficult problem of keeping prices both high enough for producers and low enough for consumers, central banks have lowered interest rates and encouraged the use of more debt. The idea is that if a person can buy a fuel-efficient car at a low enough interest rate and over a long enough term, perhaps this will make the vehicle more affordable. Similarly, interest rates on home mortgages have fallen to very low levels. All of this, plus the fact that debt is used to finance new factories and mines, leads to the relationship we saw in Figure 4 between oil prices and debt availability, related to interest rates.
[5] No one knows precisely how much oil, coal and natural gas can be extracted because the quantity that can be extracted depends on the extent of the price rise that can be tolerated without plunging the economy into recession.
If prices of these fossil fuels can rise very high (say, $300 per barrel for oil, and correspondingly high prices for other fossil fuels), a huge amount of fossil fuel can be extracted. Conversely, if energy prices cannot stay above the equivalent of $80 per barrel oil for very long without a serious recession, then we may already be very close to the end of available fossil fuel extraction. Both oil and gas producers and coal producers can be expected to go out of business because prices do not leave a sufficient margin for the required investment in new fields to offset the depletion of existing fields. Renewables will falter, as well, because both building and maintaining renewables requires fossil fuels.
The amount of resources of any kind (fossil fuels and minerals such as lithium, uranium, copper and zinc) that can be extracted depends upon the extent of depletion that the economy can tolerate. Depletion of any kind of resource means that a bigger effort (more workers, more machinery, more energy products) is required to extract a given quantity of each resource. It is clear that the entire economy cannot be transferred to the extraction of fossil fuels and mineral resources. For example, some workers and resources are needed for growing and transporting food. This puts a limit on how much depletion can be tolerated.
What Russia (as well as every other oil producer) would like is a way to get the tolerable oil price up significantly higher, for example, to $150 per barrel, so that more oil can be extracted. The hope is that a Russia-and-China-centric economy might be able to do this. Ideally, the tolerable maximum price for coal and natural gas would rise, as well.
[6] Europe, in particular, cannot afford high oil prices. If interest rates are increased soon, this will make the problem even worse. China seems to have definite advantages as an economic partner.
Europe is already having difficulty tolerating very high prices of imported natural gas and coal. Rising oil prices will add even more stress. Central banks are planning to raise interest rates. These higher interest rates will make loan payments more expensive. These higher interest rates will tend to push Europe’s economy further toward recession.
Given the problems with Europe as an energy importer, China would seem to have the possibility of being a better customer that can perhaps tolerate higher prices. For one thing, China is more efficient in its use of energy products than Europe. For example, many homes in the southern half of China are not heated in winter. People instead dress warmly inside their homes in winter. Also, homes and businesses in northern China are sometimes heated with waste heat from nearby coal-fired electricity plants. This is a very efficient approach to heating.
China also uses more coal in its energy mix than Europe. Historically, coal has been much less expensive than oil. What is needed is a low average price of energy. A small amount of high-priced oil can be tolerated in an economy that uses mostly coal in its energy mix. When all costs are counted, wind and solar are very high-priced energy sources, which contributes to Europe’s problems.
In recent years, China’s consumption of energy products has been growing very rapidly. Perhaps, in the view of Russia, China can use high-priced fossil fuel better than other parts of the world.
[7] Russia realized that the rest of the world is utterly dependent upon its fossil fuel exports. Because of this dependency, as well as the physics-based connection between the burning of fossil fuels and the making of finished goods and services, Russia holds huge power over the world economy.
The world economy should have known about the importance of fossil fuels and the likelihood that the world economy would face depletion issues in the first half of the 21st century, ever since a speech by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover in 1957. In this speech, Rickover said,
We live in what historians may someday call the Fossil Fuel Age. . .With high energy consumption goes a high standard of living. . . A reduction of per capita energy consumption has always in the past led to a decline in civilization and a reversion to a more primitive way of life.
Current estimates of fossil fuel reserves vary to an astonishing degree. In part this is because the results differ greatly if cost of extraction is disregarded or if in calculating how long reserves will last, population growth is not taken into consideration; or, equally important, not enough weight is given to increased fuel consumption required to process inferior or substitute metals. We are rapidly approaching the time when exhaustion of better grade metals will force us to turn to poorer grades requiring in most cases greater expenditure of energy per unit of metal.
. . . it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost are likely to run out at sometime between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.
I suggest that this is a good time to think soberly about our responsibilities to our descendants – those who will ring out the Fossil Fuel Age. Our greatest responsibility, as parents and as citizens, is to give America’s youngsters the best possible education [including the energy problem of a world with finite resources].
Many people today would conclude that world leaders have done their best to ignore this advice. The likely problem with fossil fuels has been hidden behind an imaginative, but false, narrative that our biggest problem is climate change caused primarily by fossil fuel extraction that can be expected to extend until at least 2100, unless positive steps are made to hold back this extraction.
In this false narrative, all the world needs to do is to move to wind and solar for its energy needs. As I discussed in my most recent post, titled Limits to Green Energy Are Becoming Much Clearer, this narrative of success is completely false. Instead, we seem to be hitting energy limits in the near term because of chronically low prices. Wind and solar are doing very little to help because they cannot be depended upon when needed. Furthermore, the quantity of wind and solar available is far too low to replace fossil fuels.
Few people in America and Europe realize that the world economy is entirely dependent upon Russia’s exports of oil, coal and natural gas. This dependency can be seen in many ways. For example, in 2020, 41% of world natural gas exports came from Russia. Natural gas is especially important for balancing electricity from wind and solar.
North America has historically played only a very small role in natural gas exports; it is questionable whether North America can ramp up its total natural gas production in the future, given the depletion problems being experienced with respect to the extraction of oil and the associated natural gas from shale formations. Continuously high oil prices are necessary to justify ramping up production outside of sweet spots. If drillers consider long-term prospects for oil prices to be too low, the associated natural gas will not be collected.
Europe is especially dependent upon natural gas imports (Figure 9). Its imports of natural gas exceed the exports of Russia and its affiliated countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States, referred to as Russia+ in Figures 8 and 9.
Without the natural gas exports of Russia and its close affiliates, there is no possibility of supplying adequate natural gas exports to the rest of the world.
Diesel fuel, created by refining oil, is another energy product that is in critically short supply, especially in Europe. Diesel fuel is used to power trucks and farm tractors, as well as many European automobiles. An Argus Media report indicates that Russian supplies account for 50% to 60% of Europe’s seaborne imports of diesel and other gasoil, amounting to 4 to 6 million tons of fuel per month. It likely would be impossible to replace these imports, using supplies from elsewhere, without bidding the price of these imported fuels up to a much higher price level than today. Even then, countries outside Europe would be left with inadequate diesel supplies.
[8] Russia’s attack on Ukraine seems to have been made for many reasons.
Russia was clearly frustrated with the current situation, with NATO becoming increasingly assertive within Ukraine itself, even though Ukraine is not itself a NATO member. Russia is also aware that in some sense, it has far more power over the world economy than most people realize because the world economy is utterly dependent on Russia’s fossil fuel exports (Section 7). Sanctions against Russia will likely hurt the countries making the sanctions as much or more than they hurt Russia.
There were also several concerns that were specifically Ukrainian giving rise to the attack on Ukraine. There had been long standing conflicts about natural gas pipelines. Was Ukraine taking too much natural gas out as a transit fee? Was it paying the correct fee for the natural gas it used? Ukraine also seems to have mistreated quite a few Russian-speaking Ukrainians over the years.
Russia has become increasingly frustrated with the small share of the world’s output of goods and services that it receives. The way the economic system works today, those who provide “services” seem to receive a disproportionate share of the world’s output of goods and services. Russia, with its extraction of minerals of many kinds, including fossil fuels, has not been well compensated for the great wealth that it brings to the world as a whole.
Over the years, Russia’s great strength has been its military. Perhaps Ukraine would not be too large a country to do battle over. Russia might be able to eliminate some of its irritations with Ukraine. At the same time, it might be able to make changes that would help to raise what have become chronically low fossil fuel prices. The sanctions that other countries would make would tend to push the required changes along more quickly.
If the sanctions really did push Russia down, the result would tend to push the whole world economy toward collapse, because the rest of the world is extremely dependent upon Russia’s fossil fuel exports. In Figure 1, the laws of physics say that there is a proportional response to the quantity of energy “dissipated”; if a greater output of goods and services is desired, more energy input is required. Efficiency changes can somewhat help, but efficiency savings tend to be offset by the higher energetic needs of the more complex system required to achieve these savings.
If energy prices do not rise high enough, we will somehow need to get along with very little or no fossil fuels. It is doubtful that renewables will last very long either because they depend upon fossil fuels for their maintenance and repair.
[9] If higher energy prices cannot be achieved, there is a significant chance that the change in the world order will be in the direction of pushing the world economy toward collapse.
We are living in a world today with shrinking energy resources per capita. We should be aware that we are reaching the limits of fossil fuels and other minerals that we can extract, unless we can somehow figure out a way to get the economy to tolerate higher prices.
The danger that we are approaching is that the top levels of governments, everywhere in the world, will either collapse or be overthrown by their unhappy citizens. The reduced amounts of energy available will push governments in this way. At the same time, programs such as government-funded pension plans and unemployment plans will disappear. Electricity is likely to become intermittent and then fail completely. International trade will shrink back; economies will become much more local.
We were warned that we would be reaching a time period with serious energy problems about now. The first time came in the 1957 Rickover speech discussed in Section 7. The second warning came from the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others, which documented a computer modeling approach to the problem of limits of a finite world. The Ukraine invasion may be a push in the direction of more serious energy problems, emerging primarily from the fact that other countries will want to punish Russia. Few people will realize that punishing Russia is a dangerous path; a serious concern is that today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.
“European Central Bank surprises markets with plan to wind down stimulus sooner than planned…
“The surprise move comes amid growing concern that the euro zone economy could soon experience stagflation — the toxic mix of sluggish economic growth and high inflation.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/10/russia-ukraine-war-european-central-bank-holds-interest-rates-steady.html
“US consumer price growth approached 8 per cent last month ahead of a surge in energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, raising pressure on the Federal Reserve to more substantively tighten monetary policy…
“Economists fear that a prolonged crisis could not only dent growth, but also further entrench inflationary pressures that have already begun to take root across a broad swath of the economy.”
https://www.ft.com/content/93953231-469e-4a2d-b1c8-897ec679ed67
“The world’s biggest bond market is flashing signals that the risk of a U.S. recession is increasing — even before the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
“The Treasury yield curve has collapsed to near inversion — a situation when short-term rates exceed those with longer tenors, which has often preceded a downturn.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/bond-traders-ring-recession-alarm-on-imminent-curve-inversion
No really??? What a surprise!
At some point, winding down stimulus becomes a necessity as economies go downhill.
You got to admire Amazon…now that’s😉the way to do it!
A veteran who started an Amazon delivery business told Protocol he wanted to shut it down.
He said he was afraid of exit fees he could owe Amazon if he terminated his contract.
He said Amazon charged for damages to the vans and the damages could run upward of $100,000.
A veteran who set up an independent business delivering packages for Amazon told Protocol he wanted to shut his business down but was too afraid of anticipated exit fees from Amazon.
Amazon’s vast delivery network is partly made up of delivery service partners, third-party contracted firms that deliver the tech giant’s packages to customers
From Business Insider
I read from another comment somewhere on YouTube a😀warning about being a😃😊seller on Amazon s platform. If you become too successful and you are flagged by Corporate they in turn will drop you as😆a seller and set up page as one of their own prime offerings!
Now, that’s what I call brilliant marketing research.
Bezos. Hats off to you and hope your live forever research team is successful.and you can’t die and experience the joys of eternal old age. Sarcasm
I heartily concur in wishing Bezos eternal life on earth – but not youth (he’s lost that already!).
May he thus live to see the death of all his friends, family and children.
To lose all he had, see everything he lusted after crumble and rot, but still live on, and on……
Despite Russia not doing a “destroy everything a la USA” there’s a lot of refugees from Ukraina; I get the feeling war isn’t the only reason for leaving …
Not enough food is likely an issue.
Free entry into the EU as a refugee and a new life might also be a reason for leaving.
Exactly.
Reminds a person of easy exit of Cubans to the US, in days past. Helped keep Cuba’s population better in line with its resources than other countries in the area.
Perhaps Ukrainians see the end result as a return to the ways of the Soviet Union days?
If they are aware of the deaths of 1000s in the SE over the last few years, perhaps they fear reprisals?
What is the local MSM telling them? If Russia takes over, you are doomed?
There are reports that the Russian soldiers are looting in Ukraine. Well…that is an economic activity and an opportunity for young Russians to take part in. Kremlin might have had that in mind when they decided to invade Ukraine.
Aristotle looked at war and looting as a normal economic activity.
Only in rare circumstances have armies not looted: Wellington stopped his troops doing it in France, in 1814, as did the Tsar – the Germans behaved very badly though.
Generally, looting was regarded as a kind of pay.
Rape was not always general, as sensible women usually came to friendly terms with men who had both money and food.
I am afraid you are right. When there are not enough goods and services to go around, “pay” comes from different kinds of activities. Looting acts to increase the low pay of soldiers. Women in war torn countries are willing to trade sex for money and food.
norm… you should stock up on canned fruit… crates of it
Could it be that MSM are not 100% reliable? Could it be that no war is picture perfect? I know many of you think that, except for vaccines, MSM media are 100% trustworthy.
Way too many people still think that MSM is 100% trustworthy. The only issue is those terrible websites publishing mis-information. Also, perhaps websites of other countries, such as Russia and China, and the information that they give to their readers.
Aristotle saw the ‘telos’ of war as ordered to the right functioning of society rather than as an end in itself. He saw the acquisition of ‘property’ as a sufficient cause. We would now talk about how ‘every war is a war for resources’, and that is a similar idea. He talked about the ‘telos’ of war as actions that are ‘in harmony with the cosmos’, when moderns are more likely to say ‘that is just how the world works’.
So, Aristotle did not have a modern ‘just war’ theory, in which ‘aggression’ is not allowed. Modern states tend to hypocritically pretend that their wars are ‘just’, and non-aggressive, which Aristotle might well have brought under ‘rhetoric’, the use of language to sway the mob. Aristotle is more concerned with how the world actually works than with an attempt to dress it up as something that it is not.
As Gail might say, the world is finite, with finite resources. All biological organisms are dissipative structures, which constantly compete to concentrate energy, and other resources, to themselves, and to dissipate that energy, and use up those other resources, in their own maintenance and expansion. That tends to bring them into conflict with each other. There is no imaginary ‘moral’ world, in which all of that is not so, or life has some other basis, and by which this real world is ‘morally condemned’. It is what it is.
NATO would love to conquer Russia, and to take its resources, under some ‘moralistic’ pretext, like in the Middle East, but that is not going to happen, as Russia is too strong an adversary. NATO is deprived of affordable energy, and it has no realistic prospect of getting more, and it is ‘acting out’ in a confused, frustrated, self-destructive manner. Europe is thus liable to lose access to Russian energy, and so it does not make sense for Europe as a war. It is liable to hasten the decline, and collapse, of the West.
I know nothing about any supposed ‘looting’ in Ukraine, but that would be petty, and besides the point, in a modern context. I doubt that it is happening. Loads of stale propaganda is flooding out of the Ukrainian forces. The same accusations tend to get recycled, ad nauseum, in every war. It is doubtful that anyone takes it seriously these days. People have seen enough wars, and enough ‘moral’ pretences around wars, in their lives, to understand what is going on with that.
Thanks for the background you provide.
Remember reading when the Red Army in World War II finally invaded Germany proper some of the soldiers were wondering why they were ever attacked after seeing the lavish residences of the Homes in Germany..
Seems nothing has changed since then…
After the eastern portion of Ukraine is pacified and a new government established, expect Russia to nationalize all western big corporation assets that have been stolen from Ukraine since the coup for cents on the dollar. I suspect it is in millions of acres most likely. Then expect China to provide “peacekeeping troops” to support rebuilding in certain areas, in cooperation with Russia. It is a win-win for China. Its troops get to “tune up” on anti-insurgency operations and they support their partner in the great game against the US.
China will then purchase large tracts of Ukrainian ag land for food. Russia will get the support and foreign exchange from China.
Smart analysis. What will they do with western Ukraine?
to poland. a scenic part in the carpathians, well worth visiting for a vacation, to Hungary.
Rename it Galicia and leave it to uncle Shmuel.
LOL who the hell knows…
Bomb/destroy anything of military significance. Give part to Poland, part to maybe Belarus, part to Romania maybe..
Negotiate a treaty with the US/EU and NATO, demilitarizing the “new” western state, making it neutral. Also insisting on a Constitutional modification eliminating the ability of “dual passport” holders to serve in government unless they are truly Ukrainian. I mean, the gov of Ukraine is a joke…almost entirely dominated by “non-Ukrainians”.
Not only will the US fight to the last Ukrainian but most of the “non-Ukrainian” government officials will do so also.
I don’t have high confidence that Russia can be this successful, but perhaps this can happen.
Gail, no one has a crystal ball, but I believe (with my very limited knowledge of “on-the-ground” info about what is really happening, that Russia will completely eliminate the UKR military in the eastern part of Ukraine. Client states will then be setup. Millions of refugees that were run out of that part by hostile policies form the UKR government will be invited to return. It may be costly to in terms of manpower and military hardware but I think they will do it.
We have to zoom out to the macro picture. Gail you are exactly right. This is an attempt at a New World Order. We know that hunger will be rampant in 2023 with all the shortages of fertilizer, and than the new Russia/eastern Ukraine agricultural bloc and the sanctions effect on exports.
The 2nd and 3rd world will start to starve.
So there are sanctions…Russia can’t sell food directly to the 2nd/3rd world. In a convenient alliance, China will buy the food from Russia, and resell to the starving world, claiming humanitarian goals. After all the US has perfected the “humanitarian” excuse for multiple wars. Eliminating this or that “evil” dictator and performing regime change all for so called”humanitarian” purposes. It is a perfect scenario. China supports Russia, and gets first claim to the food, and resells/redistributes it (all with Russian joint planning and approval) and obtains great international leverage. The same can be said of energy (oil and gas)
The food will have some serious strings attached I predict.Like maybe, paying China in a new currency instead of dollars, like maybe not using SWIFT but the new Chinese alternative, like maybe, diplomatically supporting Russia and China in the UN and other international bodies and in world diplomatic announcements and so on.
The same can be said for other critical materials and commodities same thing…a Russia/China 2 card monte…
It can all be justified on humanitarian purposes.
Then we start to see the real New World Order arise….a multi-polar one…one based on real wealth of production, whether food, commodities or manufacturing, and not on printed financialization.
Time will tell.
I think you may be right:
China easily becomes the major power in the world, with this arrangement.
Me too, Gail but I can asure you that today’s Russia is not Russia from the past. Today’s Russia is completely different even from 2008 Russia. We are yet to see what is this new Russia capable of.
Money Supply M2 in Russia decreased to 65310.30 RUB Billion in January from 66252.40 RUB Billion in December of 2021. source: Central Bank of Russia
The Russian money supply M2 is now valued at $500B
Russia’s money supply doing terribly, even before the invasion. (This goes with my thesis, about Russia needing/wanting a new world order.) M2 money supply, as currently evaluated in international markets, is absurdly low.
War leads to bad health outcomes.
https://www.rt.com/news/551592-ukraine-war-worst-health-conditions/
WHO looks at events through the lens of what Bill Gates and other big donors want it to say.
An economic singularity will take place in which only the economies of some major countries will matter.
Economically speaking, both Russia and Ukraine are third world countries, with very little relevance to the world economy other than whatever resources they might provide.
Time is up for the third world countries of the world, which will return to their natural state of barbarism as the worthy will not give two cents about their rights to live.
Ukrainians had military positions inside Mariupol hospital:
https://voxnews.info/2022/03/09/in-ospedale-mariupol-postazioni-da-combattimento-video-smentiscono-bugie-zelensky/
And also indicated here:
https://www.adnkronos.com/guerra-ucraina-russia-in-ospedale-mariupol-postazioni-da-combattimento_7DYHbO8LT8gcVhDEEyTmPo
Interesting. This didn’t get reported in US MSM.
Thank you. Also indicated here:
https://english.pravda.ru/news/world/150648-mariupol_lavrov/
As I said for Putin, I think that Russians may be ferocious, may be bad, but we offend our brain if we think they are stupid.
Attacking intentionally an hospital and kill children while all the world is watching would be one of the most stupid thing in the world they could do.
From the Russians I have known I’d say as ferocious as anyone else when their blood is up, possibly very dangerous when drunk (unless they start embracing you enthusiastically!) but not coldly cruel and murderous. Try Spaniards (‘Spanish Fury’) or Germans for that…..
And as you rightly say, killing women and babies out of sheer malice would also be highly idiotic at this juncture.
But the MSM propaganda tells us that they are ‘savages’ led by a ‘madman’…..
The same tactics were used by the ‘moderate rebels’ in Syria. Yes, the ones who were supported by USA and UK. I wonder why those tactics are not being reported, hm?
In one of the TG chanels I follow for news from the ground in Ukraine today’s there was a post about Azov soldier who was shot by the Russians whose latest selfie (from the morning) was taken inside a school. BAsically the nazis are occupying schools, kindergartens and hospitals as basis. It looks like those 8 years with NATO (american and british) instructors have made from the uki nazis bona fide terrorists.
See https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/did-russia-bomb-a-maternity-clinic?s=r
This is a direct link to the translated article showing that the bombing of the maternity hospital was a “made for photography” experience.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-TahdQuZ7DJ9iSq771ev-D78HpvldCt6/view
Potemkin War – 100% https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-TahdQuZ7DJ9iSq771ev-D78HpvldCt6/view
Strange how there are no dead smashed bodies… almost like they smashed up that building then had actors play their roles…. there is no way this is not fake… if you were in a building that was just blasted like that … would you be so calm?
No I’m in z land under the dominion of Disintegrater Adern and her team of 5M rampant kindness z-ombies. CEP is running smoothly tonight under the southern witchful fifth eye of the west.
It seems like being in the core because of all the surveillance and technology, but it’s too quaint a place to be Core material.
In Iwi land, It’ll be Blood and gore, for the Core for sure is shrinking Fast as Eddy will testify.
The white hot radiance of consumerism is strobing and shuttering, like an engine on the cusps of fuel starvation. Coffee team vexed is still trying to ignore all the shops packing up left right and centre as cafe goers live in pretend reality, clinging to their MIQ vac status of snobbery. Soon the energy output here will be dimming to a red ember afterglow.
Unleaded fuel just hit $3.10 per litre (at “Z ‘ not kidding , the government owned fuel retailer), Which means $310 dollars to full up Eddies DreamBat, enough to do maybe one circuit around Queenstown’s main centre.
Has anyone on OFW been to Gore and pretended to hump that concrete sheep on the Main Street?
Yes there is a place called Gore in Z land, where the locals roll their Rrrrs and the pregnancy rate is the highest per head of population in the country, well at least it use to be. They’ll be singing country music tonight down there, pumping up that southern optimism to try and keep warm.
Thanks for your update from New Zealand.
“Global economic collapse? …what is happening in the financial and asset markets defies adequate description…
“Are we going through an Economic Singularity when the beliefs that created the foundation of international economic system breaks down? …Even if the war ends tomorrow, outrageous damage to the global economic system has already been done.”
https://businessmirror.com.ph/2022/03/10/global-economic-collapse/
“The boss of one of London’s biggest fund managers said today’s crisis has no point of comparison with other recent disasters.
“John Foley, the chief executive of M&G, thinks financially the Ukraine situation could be worse than the 2008 financial crash. “It’s a new shade of bad,” he said.”
https://www.standard.co.uk/business/city-fund-ukraine-m-g-prudential-b986743.html
It seems like a person could guess that we are headed into a financial crash that is a new shade of bad from the facts that
-Debt levels are so high
-Interest rates are so low
-Resources per capita are so stretched
Right. And harder to quantify but the human intangibles that also hold the system together, like trust and confidence in the future, must also be reaching some sort of limit.
Young people in particular are having a terrible time.
An opinion of someone in Philippines is unlikely to matter too much
I would agree. Also, from the article:
“We are seeing a polarization of the global economy into at least two camps—the West in one and Russia/China/Iran/Saudi Arabia (accounting for 30 percent of total global economy) plus aligned countries in the other.”
India, Indonesia, Brazil ???
“Sri Lanka faces near 4 hour power cut on Thursday.
“Sri Lanka’s power regulator announced a power cut of up to 3 hour and 45 minutes for Thursday in all parts of the country between 8am and 11pm due to inadequate supply of fuel for thermal power generation.”
https://economynext.com/sri-lanka-faces-near-4-hour-power-cut-on-thursday-91473/
“South Africans will have to endure yet another bout of Stage 4 rolling blackouts…
“The ailing power utility initially announced that stage 2 load shedding will be implemented from 9pm on Monday until 5am on Tuesday and then be repeated from 9pm on Tuesday until 5am on Wednesday.”
https://www.news24.com/citypress/news/rolling-blackouts-escalated-to-stage-4-find-your-load-shedding-schedule-here-20220309
Perhaps we need a new index of share of time electricity is really available by country. This can be expected to fall lower and lower. So much for electric cars. Also, so much for paved roads.
“Airlines braced for turbulence from second crisis in 2 years…
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine comes at a critical time as it threatens to hit demand for flying, testing the fragile balance sheets of the carriers and delaying the return to profits after the industry racked up an estimated £200bn of pandemic losses.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2bbb3a7d-00e2-4043-b85a-593eb116a9fe
“Russian Nickel Compounds Pain For Carmakers Contending With Chip Shortages.
“Russia is the third-biggest producer of nickel, behind Indonesia and the Philippines, mining 250,000 metric tons of it in 2021, according to U.S. government data. Along with batteries, the metal is also needed to make stainless steel…”
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2022/03/09/russian-nickel-compounds-pain-for-carmakers-contending-with-chip-shortages/
“Volkswagen, Porsche & BMW halt car production due to shortages as war continues in Ukraine.
“Already struggling due to shortages of semiconductor chips, car manufacturers are now having to halt production due to the war in Ukraine. That’s because wire harnesses made in the West of the country are vital to fitting car computer systems, and that area is currently controlled by the Russians.”
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1577308/car-production-vw-porsche-bmw-war-ukraine
It is hard to imagine electric car manufacturing will ramp up in the light of nickel shortages.
“Russia, Belarus squarely in ‘default territory’ on billions in debt – World Bank…
“The specter of Russia defaulting on $40 billion of external bonds – its first major such default since the years following the 1917 Bolshevik revolution – has loomed large over markets since a raft of sanctions and countermeasures by Moscow have largely cut the country out of global financial markets.”
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-belarus-squarely-default-territory-billions-debt-world-bank-2022-03-09/
“Russia Headed for One of Biggest Inflation Shocks in Decades…
“In the first full week since the military offensive began late in February, prices for new domestic cars soared over 17% and the cost of television sets jumped 15%. Some medicines and vegetables became 5% to 7% more expensive in the seven days ending March 4.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/next-shock-is-here-for-russia-as-inflation-rips-through-economy
“Chinese smartphone shipments to Russia plunge as rouble collapses…
““It is politically sensitive to openly announce a sales suspension in the Russian market like Apple and Samsung,” said one former Xiaomi executive, referring to Beijing’s support for Moscow. “But from a business perspective, it makes [sense] to stand by and watch what happens next.””
https://www.ft.com/content/8f3e0214-94b1-4d73-b34f-31c189437578
Fortunately, most people can live without a new car or television set.
Hmmmm… good thing it’s a Potemkin War because all of our tech support is in Belarus….
OMG – disaster https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/10/qa-why-europe-welcomed-ukrainian-refugees-but-not-syrians
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/AP22063350731008.jpg
Ukraine is a very poor nation with low living standard and I think none of these people will want to return. Europe will get an infusion of young people into their economies and Ukraine can add demographic collapse to their list of problems.
and
“ECB pursues flexibility as divisions deepen over Ukraine crisis.
“The war in Ukraine threatens to derail the eurozone’s recovery, drive consumer prices higher and reopen divisions at the European Central Bank over the future direction of monetary policy, putting officials in an uncomfortable position ahead of their meeting on Thursday.”
https://www.ft.com/content/2e2da65d-d611-409e-9981-3b50ef2699bd
“The European Central Bank is in a no win situation… Germany Must Be Looking at the ECB in Despair.
“The outlook for inflation and the euro, already dire, is even worse with the central bank unable to raise interest rates enough without destroying the economy.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-03-09/the-european-central-bank-is-in-a-no-win-situation
“Steel Plants Across Europe Cut Production as Power Prices Soar.
“Producers of the metal from Spain to Germany are beginning to slow down or entirely stop their output as the higher costs make production unsustainable, even with steel trading near record levels.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-09/spanish-steel-production-curbed-as-power-costs-soar-to-a-record
“The European Commission has announced a plan to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds this year.
“The EU’s executive arm said it could erase a huge share of its dependency on Russia by tapping new gas supplies, ramping up reserves for next winter and accelerating efforts to be more energy efficient.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/8/eu-plans-to-slash-2-3-in-russian-gas-imports-this
This is also in the EU press release:
‘The elimination of much of the elderly population, who cannot survive at all without gas heating, is expected to result in considerable savings, and deal a huge blow to Russia!’
As far as I can tell, George Monbiot is the only person on the planet who seriously believes such a reduction in gas imports is feasible.
I suspect the Eurocrats are gambling on some sort of resolution to this conflict well in advance of winter.
I was not aware the European Commission organised gas supplies on behalf of its members? I would have expected the EU members to manage this themselves. Is the EC telling its members they have no choice in the matter?
Isn’t this horrible? there must be a special place in hell for all those half men and half women, unelected, and traitors all of their countries.
But:
““The reality is that there’s quite a number of our member states who would get into real trouble if overnight, all the energy would no longer be provided from Russia,” Timmermans told members of the European Parliament earlier.”
No kidding!
hahahaha
“OPEC chief says there’s ‘no capacity in the world’ that could replace Russia’s 7 million barrels a day in oil supply.
“Russian oil exports are crucial to global supply, and there are no sources that can compensate for the millions of barrels the country contributes, OPEC’s secretary general has said.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-chief-says-theres-no-124238149.html
“US demands shale industry does ‘whatever it takes’ to ease oil crisis…
“Amos Hochstein, the state department’s special envoy and co-ordinator for international energy affairs… blamed Wall Street investors… “”They should call their financiers and tell them there’s a war going on. The American public is paying the price.””
https://www.ft.com/content/fee88e80-8ba9-4ab8-9d79-cbd9235dd29b
Gosh, these Biden administration people sure are good at blaming everybody but themselves for problems!
Need to blame someone….pick from the following list.
– Russians
– oil companies
– Republicans
– Trump
– Banks
– Wall street
– Corporations
– Russia
– Putin
– China
– Conservatives opposing leftwing democrats
– White people
– greedy corporations
– fossil fuels
– Putin
Very true. It is too bad some people need to be told this.
A little folk wisdom may be in order…
Perhaps we should remember it’s not always one persons fault. As a father, I now remember my mother walking in on my brother and I fighting. Despite us both pointing fingers we both got dragged by the ears for a time out.
“The World’s Next Food Emergency Is Here as War Compounds Hunger Crisis.
“Russia’s invasion of Ukraine means the food inflation that’s been plaguing global consumers is now tipping into a full-blown crisis, potentially outstripping even the pandemic’s blow and pushing millions more into hunger.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/war-in-ukraine-compounds-global-food-inflation-hunger-crisis
“Lebanese fearful as fuel and wheat shortage deepens…
“Up to 90 percent of Lebanon’s wheat and cooking oil imports come from Ukraine and Russia, as well as a large proportion of grain imports. The fighting in Ukraine has engulfed the country’s southern ports, putting a stop to shipments…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/8/lebanese-fearful-as-fuel-and-wheat-shortage-deepens
“Iraqis protest rise in food prices, officials blame Ukraine war.
“Protests have erupted in Iraq’s impoverished south over a rise in food prices that officials attributed to the conflict in Ukraine. For about a week, the price of cooking oils and flour have skyrocketed in local markets…”
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/9/iraq-protest-food-prices-russia-ukraine-war
Fake revolt? Where are the people?
https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/000_324R78V.jpg
fakers are always revolting eddy
goes with the territory
This is the real crisis: the food crisis in poor countries.
Thank you for your carefully constructed and compelling argument on Our Finite World titled : Russia’s attack on Ukraine represents a demand for a new world order
The phrase in the opening sentence concerns me, this being ‘ represents a demand for a new world order’
The choreography of events since 2019, with the latest ‘act’ being the exercise in Ukraine, must surely be regarded, at best, as the immediate context, at worst, the camouflage for the conclusion you draw in your paper, viz that ‘today’s economy cannot continue in its current form without Russia’s fossil fuel exports.’
Who must now take up the torch, interpreting this ‘situation’ or ‘representation’ as THE DEMAND for a N.W.O ? Has Klaus Schwab of the WEF not already made this call ? If so, then why all the charades, chaos, lockdowns etc , and why the ‘build back better’ nonsense ?
Perhaps a more sinister interpretation will result in the puzzle pieces fitting together.
The real issue, of course, is that we are reaching a situation where inadequate energy supplies are leading to too few finished goods and services, relative to world population. Some populations need to be receive smaller allocations of finished goods and services in the future, because of a situation that is a lot like a “musical chairs” problem.
The question is: Who gets left out, and to what extent?
There are three different kinds of answers to this:
1. Poor people in poor countries, especially those in countries with high energy costs relative to output.
2. Retired people and people in poor health who are adding little to the output of economies, but who are adding a lot to costs.
3. Part of the “complexity” that has been added, thanks to the world’s additional energy supply, has to starts disappearing because there are not enough goods and services for all of this complexity. (Without the complexity, those producing food, water, and other basics can receive a larger share of total output. International corporations get scaled back. The health care system and advanced education system gets scaled back. The financial system gets scaled back, perhaps including the current role of the US$ facilitating trade.)
I think that the response to COVID helped with 1 and 2. The response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is helping scale back complexity.
If it could by us another year…. or even another month … are we justified in exterminating everyone of say… 75?
Coronary artery disease pathogenesis and treatment urgently requires a paradigm shift. Despite popular belief among doctors and the public, the conceptual model of dietary saturated fat clogging a pipe is just plain wrong.
A landmark systematic review and meta-analysis of observational studies showed no association between saturated fat consumption and (1) all-cause mortality, (2) coronary heart disease (CHD), (3) CHD mortality, (4) ischaemic stroke or (5) type 2 diabetes in healthy adults.1 Similarly in the secondary prevention of CHD there is no benefit from reduced fat, including saturated fat, on myocardial infarction, cardiovascular or all-cause mortality.2 It is instructive to note that in an angiographic study of postmenopausal women with CHD, greater intake of saturated fat was associated with less progression of atherosclerosis whereas carbohydrate and polyunsaturated fat intake were associated with greater progression.3
https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/51/15/1111.long
No news here, it has been known for at least 20 years. Use only tallow (or butter) for fat, and don’t eat grains and sugar at all.
28:00 mark https://rumble.com/vwugcd-r-and-b-weekly-seminar-r-and-b-medical-fellowship-episode-twenty-five-tuesd.html
Not sure why he doesn’t agree.
Shades of Utopia UK series
At 28:00 mark, video is talking about a group of world elite wanting to eliminate 25% of the world population.
Earlier, the video is talking about Fauci’s sudden disappearance and the staged invasion of Ukraine occurring at precisely the right time, to get attention away from COVID and Fauci, as more and more problem were coming to the attention with respect to the vaccine.
Those in the video seem to see pretty much everything staged, by a similar set of people.
problem is
watching eddylinks will leave everyone thinking that everything is ‘staged’,by someone for some reason somewhere.
whereas the progress (or otherwise) of humankind is a series of random events, leading to an unforeseen conclusion. This is our only ‘certainty’.
the danger to us all lies in social media itself, a recent (only 10 years?) phenomenon of technology, to which we are in danger of delegating our ability to think independently, productively, and conclusively.
some of it is undoubtedly correct, much of it isn’t. (clickbait?) Our truth filters are clogged up with meaningless detritus—-”my truth is truth, your truth is lies”.
Eddy likes to join dots, regardless of whether there is any justification in joining them. Conversely, Norman likes to erase the lines joining dots, even when there is ample reason for leaving them unerased.
I hope this was helpful.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-1_AO9FElv6E/VLa4Lduc3BI/AAAAAAAAFF4/U8jdo1SnPvA/s1600/Knowledge-Experience-Creativity.png
unusually so
Omicron BA.2, BA3, and the mysterious flu connection, Hong Kong/UK deaths
This post below and the whole Marek series will be fairly important in the coming months, as the exact scenario I proposed will come to pass, at least I see high probability of it.
A new Beyond Mathematical Odds coming tomorrow. I like doing a long analysis, rather than flooding your inboxes with emails. For iPhone users, Substack now has an app.
https://worldedge.substack.com/p/omicron-ba2-ba3-and-the-mysterious
My beleif is that D.trump will never be forgiven for giving Mr Putin 4 extra years to prepare his defense of Russia.
The diabolical H.R.Clinton, ‘creature-from-the-deep’, would have instigated things much earlier.
Those years of respite, when Clinton was denied her expected prize, were of immense value to Russia in preparing to deal with her enemies.
Death of Kevin Hopkins
Mr. Hopkins was celebrating his 42nd birthday on Friday, February 25. He apparently suffered a sudden cardiac arrest. Mrs. Hopkins found him unresponsive in their home. Nobody knows how long he was there without blood going to his brain. Paramedics got his heart pumping again, and rushed Mr. Hopkins to a nearby hospital. But from all accounts, his brain simply went too long without blood/oxygen. He passed away on March 4.
https://thecovidblog.com/2022/03/09/kevin-hopkins-42-year-old-intrepid-artists-international-artist-representative-suffers-massive-heart-attack-on-birthday-dies-one-week-later/
‘Nobody knows how long he was there without blood going to his brain.’
Its obviously many years since blood ventired above his collarbone.
Intrepid fool.
‘u’ is beside ‘i’; fat finger disaster
that’s fickung ruducilois.
Did wuud-work at schole.
Should’ a dine tipyng!!
Kips my comants shirt tho’ bro!
https://thecovidblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Popa-Chubby.png
Because?
Limp Bizkit performed at Lollapalooza in the summer of 2021….Fred Durst asked the crowd if they were vaxxed….the crowd roars….Durst says something like: “that’s very considerate of you”…..surreal to say the least….
Good ol’ fred.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/3372658/what-happened-woodstock-99/
Big Dumb Rock….perfect for the times we live in….
https://youtu.be/JTMVOzPPtiw
Too funny!
‘Learn the meaning of the Constitution and the principles of American government in this new version of Hillsdale’s most popular course.
The United States Constitution was designed to secure the natural rights proclaimed in the Declaration of Independence. Signed by Constitutional Convention delegates on September 17, 1787—Constitution Day—it was ratified by the American people and remains the most enduring and successful constitution in history.
In this twelve-lecture course, students will examine the political theory of the American Founding and subsequent challenges to that theory throughout American history. Topics covered in this course include: the natural rights theory of the Founding, the meaning of the Declaration and the Constitution, the crisis of the Civil War, the Progressive rejection of the Founding, and the nature and form of modern liberalism.
Join more than one million Americans who have taken “Constitution 101: The Meaning and History of the Constitution” by enrolling in this free online course today!”
Enroll today ‘Cos tomorrow it might all get vaporised!’
Planet Earth may have a few things to say about ‘….the natural rights theory of the Founding,…’
https://online.hillsdale.edu/landing/constitution-101?
utm_source=exc_OT&utm_campaign=d523a56f
Most of what western kids are taught today will be totally uselss very soon.
Driving a car, programming a computer, CRT, wokester politicsetc etc
Best learn to use a knife, a Kalashnikov (?), a snare, a collapsed worlds’ remnant resource base.
I completely agree with you Lastcall.
It would be useful also to teach how to create a vegetable garden and manage it, how to feed and treat animals, how to ride, how to make simple stuff from wood.
Abilities normally passed by grandparents, but unfotunately now grandparantes generally are able to pass only how to watch tv or play bingo.
Yes, it’s rather sad.
I learnt book restoration, at the highest level, from a old chap in his 70’s who simply wanted to pass his knowledge on, but that is so rare these days.
Still, no books after Armageddon or Ragnarok…..
I just enrolled our two Filippino munchkins in a weekend course that teaches how ambush tactics… it’s being held in Gore…
There were a few options but what got me to choose the Gore course was that Gore is a big farming town and the instructors are focusing on how to feed small units by ambushing farmers (apparently you get them while they are weeding… they are bent over and they don’t even know what hit them)….
In addition to that they also have shorter modules on how to catch and cook children — apparently you don’t want them to panic and run as that toughens the meat — you instead tempt them with candy…
We feel this is course is an excellent investment in their future and as guardians we feel it is our responsibility to do what is in their interests.
They are packing now — leaving for Gore after lunch. http://www.farmerambushgore.co.nz if anyone is interesting
here is the elders plan i know i have posted this before but i think it needs to be repeated we are now entering the nuclear attack phase of the plan which is designed to scare the worlds population into demanding the great reset or planned utopian world that the elders have designed for us expect nuclear missiles to come close to be used or actually be used unless the elders will fool the world into believing that nuclear missiles have been used. Here is the paragraph from the book memoirs of a boffin which comes from a past politician ‘ “As ministers, we have received a great deal of information, forecasts and the results of analysis. What is lacking is political decision. Most politicians are aware of the nature of the problems, but no decisions are taken. Why? The man in the street is not prepared to make sacrifices and the politician will not fight this attitude – indeed he cannot without risking his political life. Sacrifice is against trade union principles. There are two possible approaches: One is to try to build up an ethic which substitutes satisfaction for material reward. The other is to frighten people to the point where they will make sacrifices in order to avoid catastrophe. Both methods must be attempted…” ‘
It seems like this is the method being tried:
“The other is to frighten people to the point where they will make sacrifices in order to avoid catastrophe. “
a ‘great reset’ cannot be demanded.
because it cannot exist other than in the abstract.
humankind ultimately has 2 directions in which to go
1….BAU forever, in which we gain access to unlimited energy resources to support the lifestyle we have now, using ‘technology’ as yet uninvented or even thought of. (Utopia world comes under that heading btw)
or
2….. society collapses through lack of sufficient energy input at a fundamental level.
take your choice of the above. If there’s an alternative i haven’t thought of, i would be delighted to be told about it.
humankind does not possess either the mental or physical means to engender a ‘great reset’—that is part of the production of the social media mill–weasel words tossed in the air, to float down as manna to the unthinkers who want to grab at anything as a feel good factor.
We will go on in a state of denial, until we can’t. Simple as that.
There will be no ‘great reset’, where the roulette wheel of global economics is spun for us again, and we go on gambling as before.
Humanity has not earned such privileges.
It was possible to turn the planet into cash just once. We are not entitled to another throw of the earth dice, to see if we can win more next time.
there are no more planets.
We blew it on a single throw, without knowing that we were actually in the casino of life in the first place.
I agree. A reset is possible only in the direction of transitioning into a collapsed state.
The word for that is implosion
eddy
you been sneaking a look in thesaurus after all
just like i told you
well done
More reports of Ukraine BAU — two guys who signed up and drove their van to Ukraine
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/33472
What Doctors Say in Private About COVID Vaccines
Most doctors don’t publicly question COVID vaccines and the pandemic response, but their private exchanges on social media suggest there may be a growing but silent minority of physicians who disagree with official policy yet are unwilling to speak out for fear of retribution
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/what-physicians-say-covid-vaccines/
Its all in your Head; just zombies
Well ArmageddonShopping tomorrow money might be worthless
are you in the Core?
please let us know tomorrow that your money was worth just about as much as yesterday.
an empty shelves status report would be cool too.
Well my money has halved in value with respect to diesel over the last 12 months here in ‘sad’ NZ.
Lucky I own an LPG vehicle; just 1.30 per litre as it has been for last 10 yrs. Finally paying off!
LGBT vehicle?!
LPG QT perhaps?
Its only a small ute!
The ‘Ze’ lunacy in the Ukraine is costing all of us, and Boris is making the damage as bad as possible. NATO needs to back away from Russia, and quick, or it is going to cost all of us dearly.
Daily Mail:
> UK is facing bigger economic shock than 1973 oil crisis as energy prices soar and ban on Russian imports is set to pile on more pressure, MPs warn
An economic shock worse than the 1973 oil crisis is looming for the UK amid fears prices could hit $240 a barrel this summer, MPs have warned tonight. The warning came as energy prices around the world are soaring, with the ban on oil imports from Russia set to pile more pressure on already struggling British households.
Tory MP Steve Baker, of the Conservative Net Zero Scrutiny Group, told the Daily Mail: ‘I’m afraid I fear an economic crisis worse than the 1970s, but I don’t wish to be too alarmist because what actually happens will depend on the policy response.’
He said: ‘I fear that we still have the biggest bond market bubble in history, that we had inflation coming anyway, and this crisis will feed the inflation that’s coming.
‘That will force the Bank of England’s hand on interest rates.’
Liberal Democrat leader and former Energy Secretary Sir Ed Davey said: ‘We could be facing the biggest economic shock since the 1973 oil crisis yet the Government’s answer is to clobber people with an unfair tax rise.’
‘The last thing our economy or the British people need right now is for incomes to be squeezed further.’
The 1973 crisis was triggered when Arab countries acted to quadruple the price of oil and imposed an embargo in protest at the West’s support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War.
In the ensuing chaos, UK inflation reached nearly 23 per cent in 1975. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil hit 130 dollars this week after the US and UK announced bans on imports from Russia.
That is 75 per cent higher than three months ago – and nearly three times where it was two years ago.
But there are fears the price could surge to $240 by summer if Western countries continue to sanction Russian oil exports.
Industry consultant Rystad Energy told the Bloomberg news network that wider sanctions on Russian oil would create a 4.3million barrel a day hole that ‘cannot simply be replaced by other sources of supply’.
None of this is a surprise to the Brits or anyone else….
So why are they doing what they are doing?
Good point!
I suspect that their instincts are simply not up to the demands of contemporary life. In particular, their self-assurance, vanity, their ‘moralism’ and sense of ‘propriety’. They are self-assured bourgeois ‘liberals’ and they have not got a clue what they are doing, and they do not stand a chance. There is nothing that can really be done about that.
how long until the UK is no longer in the Core?
the Great Russian Reset may push all of western Europe into the Periphery.
oil is merely one facet of the story.
hey, where’d our gas go?
boof!
pssssst…..empty
My daughter in law and her family in the UK tell us that the electricity power price increases are now happening…up 45% and then maybe another 50% in the fall.They literally do not know how they are going to continue to exist. Add to that the rampant food and pertrol inflation and it is looking desperate. Look for civil disorder in the future.
My guess is increasing civil disorder in the fall of 22 and criminal chaos in 2023….Mad Max by 2025 maybe? Starvation, deprivation and increased illness definitely coming.
Our last electricity bill went up a hell of a lot. We can afford it, but millions on the breadline will not.
Abandon the luxurious concept of whole-house heating?
All sleep in one room like peasants?
Start toughening up and getting used to colder temps and discomfort now before next winter comes?
No longer stay up late, but go to bed much earlier?
We waste energy in so many ways which would have astonished our great-grandparents.
Ideally it all starts next week… or soon after… Beware the Ides of March…
DC has gotta be brewing somewhere… perhaps it will emerge in a filthy who re house in Guangzhou… (south china seems to be theee place for such things)… and quickly spread …
I know it’s been a long time but I have returned just to express this brief theory.
Bear with me. I gets kind of heavy but it gets better. especially when it ends.
Am I the only person who sees the concept of the “crumple zone” in automotive engineering as being disingenuous? First off, at this point, it’s not one part of the car that crumples or isn’t rigid, it’s the entire car. I don’t think it’s a coincidence, the idea of using lighter metal alloys for a car’s chassis came about right around the time that the first wave of fuel efficiency standards legislation came about. Cars made with metals that weighed less would weigh less and would have a much easier time meeting fuel economy standards. If there are those of you who are still skeptical about my thesis, let me ask you this. If the crumple zone is so success, why are not tanks or bulletproof vests designed with the same concept? Why do people intrinsically feel safer in SUVs as opposed to an economy class car?
Crazy, right? I mean distrusting the claims made by our leaders and experts is absolutely insane and I’m sure there are numerous studies that show crumple zones save lives.
No offence Avi…well maybe a little…but that is about as interesting and relevant as the gradual reduction in the thickness and width of a square of toilet paper. ALthough think of all the forests we save with thinner TP.
No offence, Jeff, but but I think your counter-claim is pretty terrible, to be honest There is no grandiose theory behind them reducing the quality of toilet paper. There is no “we’re doing it to save the world” statement that accompanies low quality toilet paper. There is also no legislation mandating only the manufacturing of thinner and smaller toilet paper.
I’m going to go out on a limb here and assume you think it is morally okay for those in charge to lie about why they are doing something, as long as there is some theoretical benefit based on your response.
You can just press play to listen, no need to listen on Apple Podcasts – unless you have an iPad to hand.
> Bill Roggio of FDD and Long War Journal joins School of War today to provide an update on the situation in Ukraine, his views on where things go from here – and how this all might end.
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/ep-20-bill-roggio-on-ukraine/id1589160645
Notes on Bill’s assessment:
Russia likely going for partition of ukr / annex eastern half or pro-Russia government / rump neutral state in west, buffer with nato / Putin has invested a lot, so will need a proportionate outcome
western analyses of Russian ‘failures’ assume interpretations based on USA strategy, eg. air superiority / Russian is supportive rather than key element
Russia advancing on multiple fronts despite supposed ‘set backs’ of logistics/ tactics
Russia does not care about losing tanks or planes / russia has vast military equipment and material resources, eg tanks, planes, can take losses, losses may be decreasing over time
will be fine if won in months rather than years
UKR fighting on backfoot, retreating, reduced from mechanised brigades to light infantry with anti-tank missiles
Russia may not be ‘stalled’ NW of Kiev, dont know what they intend with that column – russia still advancing despite any problems
A few Russian generals dead – actually a good sign – they are at spear tip, implies they will win, like Iran
Ukr military is feeding out propaganda about russian morale, dubious picture – no relevance, russia still disciplined and advancing
Putin will be fine so long as he achieves his objectives, likely partition / he has control of flow of info inside Russia
fly zone insane / nuclear war / would entail air fights in UKR and also attacks on missile systems in russia
russians are not indiscriminately targeting civilians, hundreds are dead, errant or collateral from legitimate targets, it would be a hell of a lot more if russia pulled that card, 1000s dead in cities a day / it could happen if conflict takes time but has not done it / he wants ukr intact / wants east intact
insurgency after russian win? russia has history of quelling insurgencies, eg. Grozny, syria, level the place / no data points on ukr insurgence since ukr partisans in wwii / russia would escalate reprisals against civilians / likely no chance / need sanctuary for insurgency, eg. taliban in pakistan / not going to happen in ukr
ze will not be allowed to remain in power in west, demilitarised, no nato, acceptable leader, no nato ally, no nato arms flows to insurgency
putin likely to win / partition / no insurgency
western states and companies unlikely to fair well with sanctions against russian energy and resources going forward / not a positive outcome for west if putin wins / west would have to accept partition of ukr
Thanks for your notes. It is hard to find time for the various audio and video recordings.
So Bill Roggio thinks that Russia will win, given enough time.
It is hard for me to imagine that the sanctions will change Russia’s resolve in winning this war. On the other hand, is Russia really strong enough to keep at this conflict? Will the impact of the sanctions cause other impacts on the world economy that cause the overall situation to change.
No one really knows…. People should have to attach real money to their prognostications and then we would get closer estimate. I wonder what the bookie’s spread is?
100 to 1 that Ukraine clearly wins.
20 to 1 that Ukraine can get a draw.
I would bet a ruble or two on a Russia win.
I agree with you.
Professor John Mearsheimer in the video posted by Michael earlier said exactly that.
Russia could have stopped before starting, but now that it has started the motivations to complete the process are incredibly higher and Russians will be ready to do anything to finish.
Russians explained it was an existential threat for them and now they are in the middle of the process to eliminate this threat.
Going against them instead of treating now it is self-harming.
Good analysis, Student.
There is no point in Russia being half-hearted about this, only success can justify their decision to go beyond diplomacy to force and the losses they have taken so far in some hard fighting.
And yes, it is an existential threat they have decided to address, this was not done on a mere whim of Putin’s as the West likes to say.
Every time a country/ bloc goes to war, China studies their tactics. It is a massive ‘how not/ to do it’ instruction course. China is gathering all of the insights, for its own use, from all of the conflicts around the world, and the Russian special operation in the Ukraine is another very useful case study.
If China ever went to war again, then the world could expect to see exactly what it has learnt from everyone else, who just keeps showing them how/ not to do it. And it could well be everything, including what the others, like NATO, have failed to learn for themselves from their mistakes and failures.
Wars exhibit how actors go about things, and their strengths and their weaknesses. Every conflict can thus make China militarily stronger without it even being involved. It both increases its own tactical ‘tool box’ and learns what to anticipate from others, including their repeated mistakes. Wars give an awful lot away.
‘And very nice war lessons, they are, too!’
哈哈
> Beijing takes ‘war lessons’ from Russia’s military tactics in Ukraine
According to Chinese military scholars, a war involving Russian troops could hold more important lessons than any other conflict. 7China’s People’s Liberation Army is watching events on the ground with particularly close attention.
For the PLA, the Russian operations — which Beijing refuses to call an invasion — are live lessons in the kind of warfare Chinese troops have not experienced in almost half a century. Beijing fears that, not having been in real combat since the 1979 border war with Vietnam, its military is suffering from ‘peace disease’, a lack of battlefield experience and fighting spirit.
For decades, Chinese military scholars and analysts have therefore been studying conflicts around the world looking for ‘Chinese lessons from other people’s wars’, as a landmark book published a decade ago called it.
Those lessons have included the importance of air campaigns as demonstrated by the US in the 1991 Gulf war, the use of missiles to knock out an adversary’s command and control or air defence systems in various US military operations, and a variety of operations in the 1999 Kosovo war.
“The Chinese military has made a significant effort to look at the modern conflicts involving the US or Russia,” said Ian Burns McCaslin, an expert on the PLA’s emulation of foreign militaries who is now enrolled in a PhD programme at Tamkang University in Taipei. “We know they looked at the Russian experience in the conflict in Syria, and we can expect them to look at Ukraine as well.”
The PLA has built the observation of other militaries’ practices into its training and exercise regimes. It has set up a programme for creating forces “intended to imitate potential adversaries,” according to a paper he co-authored.
https://www.ft.com/content/4523d326-f79e-4924-aefc-ef3ceed93a01
You mean they do not have Clausewitz or related stuff in their Library?
Those poor Chinese, due to their great firewall they are not even able to buy a book from Amazon.
The Chinese have multiple options. They can do soft takeovers as they have done with new zealand where they have bribed key officials and media to allow massive Chinese immigration.
The Chinese now control new zealand’s biggest city and have key political and academic influence. new zealanders, being the uneducated woke mob they are have allowed their country to be overrun. Suicide is the only growth industry. Funeral directors dancing all the way to the bank. Inflation 15-20%. Drug usage endemic.
The alternative is the country smack down where you have an educated population such as Taiwan. You’ve got to move quickly to take over the major cities and ports with high numbers of soldiers before the weakened USA has time to react. With an Alzheimer’s case in the White House there has never been a better time. The president wears diapers for incontinence and can’t even remember his own name half the time. His handlers will be too slow to the draw. USA failing as an empire. President Trump, peace be upon him, was their last hope.
I’m predicting a northern-summer smack down for Taiwan. Do and generals sipping lattes in the capital by December.
If it means a real f789ing war… with bombs and shooting … that I can watch…
Let’s make it happen
Sure will beat watching re-runs of the most popular show in new zealand, Coronation Street.
Xi is a comin’
Get those missiles hummin’
Wake up the corpse named biden
Into battle the USA will be ridin’
But the chinee will win
US policy in the bin
Taiwan into the fold
Of the next superpower bold
America will break in two
A multicultural stew
It was a great three century run
But sorry to say you’re time is nearly done!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NXnxTNIWkc
Get your seats for the grand finale; where do you want to be on ‘That Guy Putin Fawks Night’?
Ain’t no lifeboats for this shot-show.
Coronation Street isn’t even in the top 10.
mike – just back from stuffing 17 pies down his maw…. hey mike – have you see the Ukraine Brides site?
Across this entire country do you think I can find a tin of Kwila deck stain? Resene – nope .. Mitre 10 nope … and I can substitute cuz I already did the main house and a coat on the cottage so it needs to match … and then we’ve got a Donkey who snorts powder and orders arson on peaceful protesters as our PM..
And best of all hahaha everyone got vaxxed but….. hahaha
845 people in hospital; deaths at 91
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/845-people-hospital-deaths-91
Funny – I had maybe covid a week ago — I didn’t end up in hospital — one of our munchkins from the Philippines had body aches etc yesterday — he’s feeling nearly normal today … none of us are jacked on the poison hahaha
VAIDS hath arrived in NZ — hurrah for VAIDS… mike? miiiikkkkeeee???????
Shall we refer to mike as Freddy M Jr hahahahaha… you like that new handle mike… FMJ…
No harm in shooting up with experimental shit is there mike? no harm at all… a man must have access to the pie shop– or he’s not a man – right mike???
And norm how do we weave you into this sordid tale? Oh right did you ping that Ukrainian babe? She’s hot hot HOT…
I have an idea for you — Photoshop a mooostash onto this photo and use this as your profile photo on the Ukey Bride site — reel her in with your immense charm… oh hang on … you have no charm… instead you establish contact by DM (never phone) and send her replies to me – I will have FE craft witty and amusing responses… once you have convinced her to abandon Ukraine and come to the UK to accept your marriage proposal… you send her a one way ticket…
http://wp.production.patheos.com/blogs/watchinggod/files/2015/04/don-draper-2.jpg
Once she’s there she’ll have no choice… yes of course she will be incredibly disappointed — but with Ukraine blown to bits hopefully she’ll choose to commit to the wedding and remain in the UK…
I once knew a guy names mike — he was an American living in Vietnam… he was a bit of a dirty bugger… and looked a bit like a troll… not as bad as a 90 yr old but put it this way — he’s struggle to get action in a who re house… anyhow — what he did was sponsor fresh 17 and 18 yr olds to study English … and in return — he got… what he wanted… I always thought that was both kinda creative but not exactly kosher… it was preying upon poverty…..
Punchline —I was in Vietnam and mike had this smokin hot ‘girlfriend’ — he was not living there any longer but was there for extended business trips on a regular basis – he’d met her two weeks prior and they go married… love at first site (for him I guess)…
Through the grapevine I heard that he immediately impregnated her when she arrived in the US (probably bound her feet too hahaha)… this was over 10 years ago so not sure how it all turned out … perhaps they have a dozen kids by now? hahahaha
The moral of the story is … if that fox does come to the UK — you have a formula to follow to ensure they stays the course.
Through my wife knowing their wives, I met a couple of English guys in York who had (Thai) mail order brides. The first girl was very beautiful and liked to go clubbing without her husband most nights. She would come back as noisily as possible to ensure she woke her husband up, knowing he had to be up early to go to work. She talked to him like he was dirt and liked to hit him too. One time he got angry and hit her back, so she got a Thai boxer to come round and beat him up. The day she got her British passport she walked out and was pregnant within a month to some other guy.
I can still remember the first time I saw the other couple walking down the street. She was a pretty teen and he was mid forties with no hair, thick rimmed glasses and overweight. My first thought was “This won’t last long”. After a couple of years, she decided she didn’t like living in York centre and persuaded him to put his house up for sale so they could move to the suburbs. The house got a lot of viewings and she started an affair with the estate agent, eventually moving in with him.
Moral of the story: women won’t respect you if you have to order them online.
dayum
too late to cancel my subscription to amazon prime
The reality is… if you are a fat bald middle aged (or worse – 80+) year old guy with the personality of a tin can… and you are on a dating site hunting for an attractive woman who is only there because she wants to escape poverty…. then you are f789ed.
You are delusional. Now if you are not delusional and you target frumpy old maids … who will have no other options once you haul them back to your lair … then it might work out.
You wanna know an even worse scenario? You take these same fat bald burned out geezers and you ship them to Bangkok for a holiday… they tour the girlie bars and hook up with an 19yr old fit girl who is right out of the village… but they learn fast how to play these geezers… you so funny … you so handsome, you good man … you help me … me no like working here…
Then the geezer flies home but the bar girl keeps him on the leash — always asking for cash and gifts and promising not to work the bars…. but she’s a wh ore… and she makes a lot of cash in the bars… she’s also a bit of a celebrity — in demand… she’s addicted to the lifestyle…. and she’s morally bankrupt….
And she likely has multiple geezers in play — all sending her money….
This ain’t exactly literature … but it’s an accurate depiction of how these geezers get suckered… as the author states – they are always playing the geezers – always — but the geezers are losers – even when he presents evidence (sometimes have even has a roll around with the girl)… the geezers often refuse to believe him… hahahaha… now that is the hallmark of a total Loser.
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/510492.Confessions_of_a_Bangkok_Private_Eye
norm — be careful … Valeria was the only non- grunt hog on that site… the others were rather average…
I wonder if she is a plant… she looks too good to be true… she could be Putin’s mistress…
She might be getting paid to be on that site to entice sad lonely geriatrics who are living in a delusion believing they can pull hot young babes … and it might end up being a bait and switch thing… you buy your membership and she strings you along for a time… then says she’s moving to Germany having chosen Dietmar instead (so sorry)…
But she’s got a really awesome friend to introduce to you — you are disappointed (of course – who wouldn’t be!) so you wait with anticipation for the image to transfer across
And….
https://t4.kn3.net/taringa/5/C/D/2/7/9/KingAnimu/305.jpg
I knew an old man – 70’s, ex-army – who had a very much younger girlfriend in Roumania: he set her up in an apartment, and every summer drove there in his Range Rover.
He enjoyed the trips, very much a happy Indian Summer for him; although God knows what she got up to when he was back in England!
This is excellent – https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/sudden-deaths-reported-all-around?s=r
Notice how the CovIDIOTS initially post selfies of themselves getting their vaxx… then when they get injured they claim ‘nobody told me’…
If Russia was dying… everyone would start poking to see if Russia is dead
Biden joked that the ruble no longer is worth even a cent
Russia would turn into Syria and Yemen
Everyone would start humiliating Russia
This could easily go nuclear
The ruble is NOT energy and NOT food and NOT housing and NOT heating and NOT TVs
AS IS
the US Dollar.
In the tern of “money” Biden is correct: Money has no value any more.
Let’s see what comes next on the great theatre of things evolving right befor our eyes…
it doesn’t matter much what the ruble is worth in USD.
now that the Great Russian Reset is here, what will matter more is the value of ruble vs rupee and renminbi.
Biden is literally the joke.
The topic is sleeping under the carpet:
As son as commodities “required” will have to be paid in physical delivery of gold, there will be a “Mark to Market” Moment.
Actually the Market can watch itself self-destruct. No need to take further steps.
I think China and India and Russia will continue to do business with each other, and not requiring gold as payment.
100% dead on.
I am confident that if this is not just a head fake to distract from the Covid Disaster — that Putin will launch the nukes rather than have proud Russia be the next Iraq.
There is also the possibility that this is all a prop — and as Devil Covid hits the nukes are launched — along with starvation and DC — to try to near term kill as many as possible — to reduce suffering.
I suspect this is what is really going on … nukes are icing the cake
Alive and humbled and humiliated or dead. Not sure nuk/s is a winner for Russia even if it takes the other side down.
Didn’t that dude A. Bitler priove that as one fiat dies another can be initiated and an economy can grow wings.
A fiat paper is an agreement.
You agre, they agree, then the deal gets done.
I think Germany did well under that new currency and then ego’s took over.
They’re trying to distract us from the global plague of “sudden deaths,” but there are now too many, so they can’t
https://markcrispinmiller.substack.com/p/theyre-trying-to-distract-us-from
BTW – Miller cowrote Propaganda – with Bernays
URGENT: Covid infections in Britain are rising again, and 90 percent of the dead are vaccinated. Have mRNA jabs ruined our chance at herd immunity?
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/urgent-covid-infections-in-britain
norm?
The U.s passed a big infrastructure bill .. lots of road work coming… going to use a lot of oil
Come now….building back better with GREEN CLEAN DIGITAL FUNDING…we gots to start somewhere…
What are they 🤔 thinking?
I love the smell of hot asphalt in the morning.
Russia is dying
The war and sanctions hid the fact that the ruble would have collapsed anyway
Russia is going down the Net Energy Cliff
They decided to go down in a war
Gail is probably right
The question has not been decieded what excactly is to die “here”.
Predictions and prophecies are no entities in history.
I bet that all people reading here have come to the conclusion that history is in the making here.
For Russia this is an existential problem as the c9/11 has been for me.
I went to a lot of demonstrations but I could not change “history”.
The real big wheel is being operated here.
Better stay away…
One thing I know for sure:
A ruble is no longer an entity in history because 99% of the world have decided that it simply does not exist. What has disappeared with it is not yet clear.
Days, guys, days! Pretty much everything changes by the day! History, history, Hooray!
yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay!!!!!!!
finally a decently exciting year has arrived.
2022 is gonna do some historical histrionics.
the Great Russian Reset wooooooo!!!!!!!
the Bear is growling GGRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!
1) the bear becomes a poodle of China
2) WW3
3) the bear is ripped to pieces by everyone
China and India have not changed their relationships with Russia.
Russia has enormous resources, and China and India have enormous populations.
that could work out okay for decades.
the global economy is in certain irreversible decline, but some countries could possibly maintain a better level while others decline swiftly.
we’ve seen this already in Core/Periphery.
did the Great Russian Reset fire up the process where Europe now moves swiftly towards Periphery status?
if true, then Europeans can blame the USA.
it won’t change their destination.
the USA could be a side business for “Asia”.
perhaps this arrangement will allow bAU for Asia Russia USA to limp on for another decade or so.
I’m betting on it wooooooo!!!!!!!
by 2023, the enlarged Periphery could be clearer.
bAU tonight, baby, and IF it ends tomorrow, I don’t care!
You say you’ don’t care:
“…If it ends tomorrow…”
What exactly do you not like about birds and bees and other living beings on this planet being destroyed?
That is exacty the very essence of your existance.
Buy more, pay more, suffer more.
I really do not know what is not to be liked about that?
What the f* should be wrong with
“Etrernal enslavement of life”?
Sounds like a perfect business opportunity to me.
In principle nobody became the poodle of China and that is what made China quite successful in Africa.
There exists of course a problem with “corruption” amd “Mafia” in China but it also exists in the USA.
The source might be “desputable”…
How many trillion of gold was actually being stored as paper value in WTC7 ?
In all cases: If the going gets tough states will go into “piracy mode”.
We understood that from the Canadian Truckers.
There is absolutely no power in the world that can stop this errosion that has been started by the very powers that “should maintain society”.
This is a process that wil take a lomg time and even China and Russia will have to undergo this.
Currently we look at “Nickel Prices”.
Well, if you are near starving to death, you probably might have other interests.
That will take time to evolve.
“99% of the world have decided that it simply does not exist. ”
And that 99% would be . . . who?
“The c9/11 hid the fact that the REPO market collapsed”.
Uhm , probably not true.
Would the Russian invasion of Ukraine be justified if it were for biodefense?
https://rwmalonemd.substack.com/p/all-along-the-watchtower
Victoria Nuland testifies:
“Let me ask you: Does Ukraine have chemical or biological weapons?”
“Ukraine has biological research facilities which in fact we are now quite concerned Russian troops – Russian forces – may be seeking to gain control of. So we are working with the Ukrainians on how they can prevent any of those research materials from falling into the hands of Russian forces should they approach.”
“I’m sure you’re aware that the Russian propaganda groups are already putting out there all kinds of information about how they’ve uncovered a plot by the Ukrainians to release biological weapons in the country and with NATO’s coordination. If there’s a biological or chemical weapon incident or attack inside of Ukraine is there any doubt in your mind that 100% it would be the Russians that would be behind it?”
“There is no doubt in my mind senator and it is classic Russian technique to blame on the other guy what they’re planning to do themselves.”
Victoria Nuland confirms: There are “biological research facilities” in Ukraine
08 March 2022
https://malagabay.wordpress.com/2022/03/09/hell-hath-no-fury-like-a-woman-scorned/
The US Gov’t is a crime syndicate.
When Victoria Nuland dies, Satan will at long last last be free from Hell.
How so?
There can’t possibly be room there for the ‘Father of Lies’ when the utterly shameless Mother of All Liars has arrived?
Old Nick can take a well-earned rest…..
“China Growth Faces Dual Shocks from Oil Spike and Virus Spread.
“China’s ability to meet its ambitious economic growth target for the year is being questioned by economists just days after it was announced, as the country faces a spike in oil prices, the highest coronavirus spread in years and continuing financial woes for property developers.”
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-growth-faces-dual-shocks-from-oil-spike-and-virus-spread
“China Fiscal Aid Little Comfort for Cash-Strapped Provinces.
“Local officials from across China are in Beijing this week for the annual full-session of the country’s parliament with a common plea for President Xi Jinping’s government: we need more money.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-08/china-s-fiscal-aid-is-little-comfort-for-cash-strapped-provinces
“Chinese developers speed up asset sales to state firms amid prolonged debt crisis.
“China’s private property developers have accelerated the sales of assets to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) amid a deepening debt crisis, despite the recent easing measures introduced by the government.”
https://www.scmp.com/business/banking-finance/article/3169799/chinese-developers-speed-asset-sales-state-firms-amid
This doesn’t sound good. The State Owned Enterprises still will not be able to get enough ongoing revenue to service them.
I wonder if all of China can stick together as the upcoming collapse proceeds. I understand that Beijing’s control over outlying areas is not very strong. Housing costs tend to be a whole lot lower in some of these areas and ability to pay taxes is much lower.
Perhaps some parts of China can continue, but it is hard to understand which parts. The Southeastern coast area has been doing well, but it needs electricity from more outlying areas, I believe.
To keep parts of China producing goods, resources from outlying areas and Russia will probably be needed.
If Western consumers for their exports are evaporating, their building bubble is deflating and their overseas debtors are defaulting then that’s a whole lot of economic shrinkage and social upheaval for China.
https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/1955496-china-silent-on-sri-lankas-request-for-debt-waiver
The Chinese seem to set a great deal of ideological and emotional value on the unity of the whole territory: not like, for instance, the English, who would happily see Wales, N Ireland and Scotland disappear overnight and not be bothered at all.
In this they are a bit like the Spanish, who get all emotional over that dump Gibraltar and keeping the Basques and Catalans in Spain. In the Middle Ages, Spain consisted of many small kingdoms, the natural consequence of limited resources and mountain ranges which cross the peninsular.
Will the Chinese rules destroy themselves trying to keep this impossible construct together? Or will they be ruthless and pragmatic and cut parts out?
Much the same problem faces the Russian Federation: a vast territory and diminishing resources, ageing population, etc.
Of course, the heavy burden of the elderly can be dealt with efficiently and quite promptly if the will is there, and if the consequences of resource-scarcity are allowed to play out naturally.
“Much the same problem faces the Russian Federation…”
Your comment reminded me of the huge protests in the Russia’s Far East in 2020, Xabier.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/07/18/an-unlikely-local-hero-in-russias-far-east
The student who makes YT videos on life in the Russian East certainly feels rather hard done by there, compared to more privileged cities.
Pretty shabby, lots of potholes, etc, everything very 3rd-rate and suffocating: I suppose just the angst which people in real backwater provinces who’ve had a glimpse of something else always feel. My own sister-in-law escaped from Perm, no less, in Siberia.
People without money and connections feel pretty hopeless in these places.
‘Natasha’s Adventures’ on YT, worth a look. I think she has been subject to some pressure for being too candid and deleted her more negative videos.
She is studying Chinese, but longs to go West…..
I hope the soft and caressing breezes of Spring are wafting over your island redoubt, Sir Harry – it’s simply lovely down here, better than most June days!
Rather bizarrely, someone chose to practice the BAGPIPES in the fields here, (perhaps exiled by neighbours?) As a faint noise drifting on the breeze not too bad……..
“Chinese Nickel Giant Tsingshan Faces $8 Billion Trading Loss as Ukraine War Upends Market…
“The paper loss stood at $8 billion on Monday, before violent moves in nickel prices led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the metal on Tuesday, one of the people said. Tsingshan couldn’t be reached for comment.”
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-nickel-giant-tsingshan-faces-8-billion-trading-loss-as-ukraine-war-upends-market-11646765353
The issue here has to do with trading losses.
Another nickel issue is batteries of electric vehicles. Fewer electric vehicles can be made. Also, less stainless steel can be made.
“Ukraine’s government has banned the export of wheat, oats and other staples that are crucial for global food supplies as authorities try to ensure they can feed people during Russia’s intensifying war…
“The export ban will likely reduce global food supplies just when prices are at their highest level since 2011.”
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/ukraine-bans-exports-wheat-oats-food-staples-83337319
As resources dwindle, it looks like it’s getting to be an “Every country for itself.”
Yes, and so on down the chain:
‘Emperor against emperor,
King against king,
Chief against chief,
Tribe against tribe,
Clan against clan,
Brother against brother’.
(Condensed ancient wisdom from Iran).
I’d add: ‘Until only the dogs and crows and vultures are there to eat the bones clean’.
“Food crisis grows as spiralling prices spark export bans…
” A global food crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine escalated on Wednesday as Indonesia tightened curbs on palm oil exports, adding to a growing list of key producing countries seeking to keep vital food supplies within their borders.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/food-crisis-grows-spiralling-prices-spark-export-bans-2022-03-09/
This is the way it works, I am afraid. Export only what your own country doesn’t need. When supplies are plentiful, this is no problem. But when supply is constricted, it causes huge problems.
Here in the US (Florida) bread at Walmart is up by 50%. What used to cost 98 cents for a loaf of wheat bread, now cost $1.48
https://mobile.twitter.com/FoJAk3/status/1501398163667759107?cxt=HHwWhsC5vZrrhNYpAAAA
Mr Pool
Russia will cut it self off from the global internet on 3.11
I think we can start expecting cyber attacks after that date
This is an old story, was it written in 1984, I duumo:
“…The simple fact is that we’re not sure if the states of Eastasia and Eurasia actually exist, nor if that chunk of land in between is actually fought over.”
What is your reasoning?
Actually a “large” cyber attack can not be a stake being a base for stakeholder capitalism. Also a grid failure can not be a stake for CBDC.
It simply can not happen as with that the entire storyline will evaporate.
So relax and keep on posting on OFW!
Hi,
> Not very dignified behavior for the president of Ukraine, however
What? You do know he was a comedian/actor before (maybe accidentally) becoming president? This clip is from those times.
I expected that the clip is from the president’s prior occupation.
Hey OFW, I have some music for the situation.
https://youtu.be/7JZrDtYobyc
That price spike on Monday surpassed the record set last year by over $400 an ounce. Russia is the largest single-country supplier of the extremely rare metal in the entire world, exporting around 100 tons of it in 2021.
The Norilsk-Talnakh palladium deposits located above the Arctic Circle in Russia, controlled by the eponymous Norilsk Nickel company, account for roughly 40 percent of the globe’s supply of palladium and are the largest known deposits on the planet. While sanctions have not been directly been levied against Norilsk Nickel, the restrictions on flights out of Russia imposed by many Western countries have severely limited shipping and caused massive supply disruptions.
Palladium itself has undergone high demand in recent years as stricter emissions standards call for more of the precious metal to be used in modern cars, and as a result, the metal has traded on exchanges for more than equivalent amounts of gold for much of the past three years. The high value has led to rashes of thefts during previous price spikes, as recycling old converters is a lucrative and easy way to access valuable metals such as palladium.
The Drive.com
Waiting for gasoline tank thefts with price it is now….
Oil prices falling and stocks way up? Strange!
I don’t think this story is over yet
Stocks can crash up during hyperinflation. IIRC in Weimar stocks beat inflation during the earlier innings.
European Fertilizer Output Cuts Pose Risks for Food Prices
(Bloomberg) — European fertilizer makers, including Yara International ASA and Borealis AG, are cutting output because of surging natural gas prices, adding to the growing risks for global food inflation.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has roiled commodities markets and propelled natural gas — the feedstock of nitrogen fertilizers — to record levels. That’s forcing producers to curb ammonia output, pushing up farm input costs and adding to the risks of worldwide food shock.
Yara is temporarily curtailing production at Ferrara in Italy and Le Havre in France, the Oslo-based company said on Wednesday. Output of ammonia and urea at its European facilities will be just 45% of capacity by the end of this week. The two plants produce 1 million tons of ammonia and 900,000 tons a year of urea between them.
https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/yara-reduces-output-at-two-european-plants-as-gas-prices-surge
It is not a “risk of a food shock”….it is baked in…guaranteed.
With the drastic price increases in fertilizer….and the limit of fertilizer being produced due to natural gas limitations (whether due to depletion or to limiting imports of Russian gas) much of the world will be in food crisis this summer and into 2023.
Add to that the enormous portion of worldwide wheat production Russia will control.
Pretty soon Russia will start playing hardball with all nations that dared sanction them, vote against them in the UN, and to eliminate trading with them.
No oil, gas or food until you support us.
Dam, even food here in the US is skyrocketing.
Hard to imagine how bad it will get in much of the 2nd and 3rd world.
And Russia gave the West and its puppets fair warning of all of this…..
We are in suspended animation … we’ve essentially guaranteed collapse with these policies…
So there is no reset … we are out of cheap oil – and what we are seeing now is the mechanism for extermination being rolled into place….
hahahahaha
https://dailyexpose.uk/2022/03/09/canada-70-percent-covid-deaths-fully-vaccinated/
Loss of fertilizer is a big issue.
eddy…i do enjoy your self revealing posts.
if you knew anything at all about relationship dynamics, you would know that it’s the lady who does the choosing.
not that i’m surprised that such basic awareness has passed you by.
a woman steers clear of anyone obsessed with self.
Hmmm… in that case … don’t bother to pay the membership fee for that site… the cash is better spent on things with more favourable outcomes… like petrol (it’s a bit pricey now inn’t it!) to get you to the Injection Camp.