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Most people have a preconceived notion that there will be a clear winner and loser from any war. In their view, the world economy will go on, much as before, after the war is “won” by one side or the other. In my view, we are basically dealing with a no-win situation. No matter what the outcome, the world economy will be worse off after the fighting stops.
The problem the world economy is up against is the depletion of many kinds of resources simultaneously. This depletion is made worse by rising population, meaning that the resources available need to provide an adequate living for an increasing number of world inhabitants. Because of depletion, the world economy is reaching a point where it can no longer grow in the way it has in the past. Inflation, food shortages and rolling blackouts are likely to become increasing problems in many parts of the world. Eventually, the population is likely to fall.
We are living in a world that is beginning to behave like the players scrambling for seats in a game of musical chairs. In each round of a musical chairs game, one chair is removed from the circle. The players in the game must walk around the outside of the circle. When the music stops, all the players scramble for the remaining chairs. Someone gets left out.
In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues.
[1] In a world with inadequate resources relative to population, conflicts are likely to become increasingly common.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict is one example of a resource-associated conflict. The allies underlying the NATO organization have chosen to escalate the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in part, because the existence of the conflict helps to hide resource shortages and accompanying high prices that are already taking place. No matter how the war is stopped, the underlying resource shortage issue will continue to exist. Therefore, the conflict cannot end well.
If sanctions lead to less trade with Russia (or even worse, less trade with Russia and China), the world economy will have an even greater problem with inadequate resources after the war is over. In fact, many parts of the current economic system are in danger of failing, primarily because depletion is leading to too little energy and other resources per capita. For example, the US dollar may lose its reserve currency status, the world debt bubble may pop, and globalization may take a major step backward.
[2] There is a huge resource depletion issue that authorities in many countries have known about for a very long time. The issue is so frightening that authorities have chosen not to explain it to the general population.
Mainstream media (MSM) practically never mentions that there is a major issue with resource depletion. Instead, MSM tells a narrative about “transitioning to a lower carbon economy,” without mentioning that this transition is out of necessity: The world is up against extraction limits for many kinds of resources. Besides oil, coal and natural gas, resources with limits include many other minerals, such as copper, lithium, and nickel. Other resources, including fresh water and minerals used for fertilizer are also only available in limited supply. MSM fails to tell us that there is no evidence that a transition to a low carbon economy can actually be made.
[3] The big depletion issue is affordability of end products made with high priced resources. The cost of extraction rises, but the ability of the world’s citizens to pay for end products made using these high-cost resources doesn’t rise. Commodity prices do not rise enough to cover the rising cost of extraction. When this affordability limit is hit, it is the resource extracting countries, such as Russia, that find themselves in a terrible situation with respect to the financial well-being of their populations.
The big issue that hits because of depletion is a price conflict. Businesses extracting resources need high prices so that they can reinvest in new mines, in ever more costly locations, but consumers cannot afford these high prices.
In a sense, the higher cost is because of “inefficiency.” As a result of depletion, it takes more hours of labor, more machine time, and a greater use of energy products to extract the same quantity of a given resource that was previously extracted elsewhere. Growing efficiency tends to help wages, but growing inefficiency tends to work the opposite way: Wages don’t rise, certainly not as rapidly as prices of end products.
As a result, commodity exporters, such as Russia, are caught in a bind: They cannot raise prices enough to make new investments profitable. The problem is that the world’s consumers cannot afford the resulting high prices of essentials such as food, electricity and transportation. Russia reports very high reserve amounts, especially for natural gas and coal. It is doubtful, however, that these reserves can actually be extracted. Over the long term, selling prices cannot be maintained at a sufficiently high level to cover the huge cost of extracting, transporting and refining these resources.
The success of a country’s economy can, in some sense, be measured by the country’s per capita GDP. Russia’s GDP per capita has tended to lag far behind that of the US (Figure 2).
Russia’s inflation-adjusted GDP per capita fell after the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. It was able to grow again, once oil prices began to rise in the early 2000s. Since 2013, Russia’s GDP per capita growth has again fallen behind that of the US, as increases in oil and other commodity prices again lagged the rising cost of production. Given these difficulties with depletion, Russia is becoming increasingly unwilling to ignore poor treatment it receives from Ukraine.
There may be another factor, as well, leading especially to the escalation of the conflict. The US seems to covet Russia’s resources. Some powers behind the throne seem to believe that Western forces supporting Ukraine can quickly win in this conflict. If such an early win occurs, the aim is for Western forces to step in and inexpensively ramp up Russian resource extraction, allowing the world a new source of cheap-to-produce fossil fuels and other minerals.
In this context, Russia launched an attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Ukraine has presented Russia with problems for many years. One issue has been transit fees for natural gas passing through the country; is Ukraine taking too much gas out? Another problem area has been the rise of the far-right Azov regiment. Russia has also expressed concern that NATO has been training soldiers within Ukraine, even though Ukraine is not a member of NATO. Russia doesn’t want military, trained by NATO, at its doorstep.
[4] World economic growth very much depends on growing energy consumption.
There are two ways of measuring world GDP. The standard one is with the production of each country measured in inflation-adjusted US$, with the changing relative value to the US$ considered. The other approach uses “Purchasing Power Parity” GDP. The latter is supposedly not affected by the changing level of the dollar, relative to other currencies. Inflation-Adjusted Purchasing Power Parity GDP is only available for 1990 and subsequent years. Figure 3 shows the high correlation between energy consumption and PPP GDP during the period from 1990 through 2020.
The reason for a strong association between GDP growth with energy consumption growth is a physics-based reason. Producing goods and providing services requires the “dissipation” of energy products because the laws of physics tell us that energy is required to move any object from one place to another, or to heat any object. In the latter case, it is the individual molecules within a substance that move faster and faster as they get hotter. The economy is a “dissipative structure” in physics terms because of the need for energy dissipation to provide the work needed to make the system operate.
Human beings are also dissipative structures. The energy that humans get comes from the dissipation of the energy found in foods of every kind. Food energy is commonly measured in Calories (technically, kilocalories).
[5] World economic growth also seems to depend on factors besides energy consumption.
The fitted equation on Figure 3 (the equation beginning with “y”) implies that GDP is rising much more rapidly than energy consumption, almost twice as rapidly. Over the entire 30-year period, the actual growth rate in energy consumption averages about 1.8% a year. If energy consumption growth had really been 1.8% per year, the fitted equation implies that growth in GDP would have greatly sped up over the period. (In fact, the growth rate in energy consumption was falling over the 30-year period, but GDP grew at closer to a constant rate. In terms of the fitted equation, these two conditions are equivalent.)
How can GDP rise so much more rapidly than energy dissipation? There seem to be several ways such a higher rate of increase can occur, on a temporary basis:
[a] A worldwide trend toward an economy using more services. The production of services tends to require less energy consumption than the production of essential goods, such as food, water, housing and local transportation. As the world economy gets wealthier, it can afford to add more services, such as education, healthcare, and childcare.
[b] A worldwide trend toward more wage and wealth disparity. Such a trend tends to happen with more specialization and more globalization. Strangely enough, a trend to more wage disparity allows the world economy to continue to grow without adding a proportionately greater amount of energy consumption use because of the different spending patterns between low-paid workers and high-paid workers.
Analyzing the situation, the world is filled mostly with low-paid workers. To the extent that the pay of these low-paid workers can be squeezed down, it can prevent these workers from buying goods that tend to use relatively high amounts of energy products, such as automobiles, motorcycles and modern homes. At the same time, growing wage disparity allows the higher-paid workers to be paid more. These higher-paid workers tend to spend a disproportionate share of their income on services, such as education and healthcare, which tend to consume less energy.
Thus, greater wage disparity tends to shift spending away from goods and toward services. The main beneficiaries are the top 1% of workers (who buy mostly services, requiring little energy consumption), rather than the remaining 99% (who would really like goods such as a car and their own home, which require much more energy consumption).
[c] Improvements in technology. Improvements in technology are helpful in raising GDP because technological improvements tend to make finished goods and services more affordable. With greater affordability, more people can afford goods and services. This effect is favorable for allowing the economy, as measured by GDP, to grow more quickly than energy consumption.
There is a catch associated with using improved technology to make goods and services more affordable. Improved technology tends to increase wage disparity because it nearly always leads to owners and a few highly educated workers being paid more, while workers doing the more routine parts of processes are paid less. Thus, it tends to lead to the problem discussed above: [b] A trend toward wage and wealth disparity.
Also, with improved technology, available resources tend to be depleted more quickly than without improved technology. This happens because finished goods are less expensive, so more people can afford them. Once resources start getting exhausted, improved technology can’t fix the situation because resource extraction costs are likely to rise more rapidly than can be offset with the impact of new technology.
[d] A worldwide trend toward more debt at ever-lower interest rates.
We all know that the monthly payment required to purchase a car or home is lower if the interest rate on the debt used to finance the purchase is lower. Thus, falling interest rates can make paychecks go further. Both businesses and citizens can afford to purchase more goods and services using credit, so the overall level of debt tends to rise with falling interest rates.
If we are only considering the period from 1990 to the present, the trend is clearly toward lower interest rates. These lower interest rates are part of what is making the GDP growth higher than what would be expected if interest rates and debt levels remained constant.
[6] The world economy now seems to be reaching limits with respect to many of the variables allowing world economic growth to continue as it has in the past, as discussed in Sections [4] and [5], above.
Figure 6 shows that there have been two major step-downs in world inflation-adjusted per capita PPP GDP. The first one occurred in the 2008-2009 period; the second one occurred in 2020. Figure 7 shows the sharp dips in energy consumption occurring in the same time periods.
In 2021, energy prices started to rise rapidly when the world economy tried to reopen. This rapid rise in prices strongly suggests that energy extraction limits are being reached.
Another clue that energy production limits are being reached comes from the fact that the group of oil exporters, OPEC+, found that they couldn’t actually ramp up their oil production as quickly as they promised. Once oil production is cut back because of inadequate prices, it is hard to get production to rise again, even if prices temporarily rise because the many pieces of the chain supporting this extraction are broken. For example, trained workers leave and find jobs elsewhere, and contractors go out of business because of inadequate profits.
If we think about it, Items [5a], [5b], [5c] and [5d] are all reaching limits as well. Item [5d] is probably clearest: Interest rates can no longer be lowered. In fact, nearly everyone says that interest rates should now be raised because of the high inflation rates. If interest rates are raised, commodity prices, including prices for fossil fuels, will fall.
With lower fossil fuel prices, there will be pressure for oil, gas and coal producers to reduce their production, even from today’s lower levels. Because of the tight connection between energy and GDP, lower energy production will tend to push economies further toward contraction. Of course, this will make resource exporters, such as Russia, worse off.
As the world economy enters recession, we can expect that Item [5a], the shift from goods toward services, to turn around. People with barely enough money for necessities will reduce their use of services such as haircuts and music lessons. Item [5b], globalization and related wage disparity, is already under pressure. Countries are finding that with broken supply chains, more local production is needed. In the US, recent wage gains have tended to go to the lowest-paid workers. Item [5c], technology growth, cannot ramp up as resources needed from around the world are increasingly unavailable, due to broken supply chains and depletion.
[7] We are likely facing a collapsing world economy because of the limits being reached. Adding sanctions against Russia will further push the world economy in the direction of collapse.
Many sources report that Russian exports of wheat, aluminum, nickel, and fertilizers will be “temporarily” disrupted. A few sources note that Russia plays an important role in the processing of uranium fuel used in nuclear power plants. According to the Conversation:
Most of the 32 countries that use nuclear power rely on Russia for some part of their nuclear fuel supply chain.
We have become used to efficient air travel, but sanctions against Russia make this less possible, especially for flights to Southeast Asia. A Bloomberg article called Siberian Detour Requires Airlines to Retrace Cold War Era Routes gives the example of direct flights from Finland to Southeast Asia being canceled because they have become too expensive and are too time-consuming with the required detours. It becomes necessary to fly indirect connecting routes if a person wants to travel. Many other routes have similar problems.
US President Joseph Biden is warning that food shortages are likely in many parts of the world as a result of the sanctions placed against Russia.
According to a video shown on Zerohedge,
“It’s going to be real. The price of the sanctions is not just imposed upon Russia. It’s imposed upon an awful lot of countries as well, including European countries and our country as well.”
If the world economy were doing well, and if Russia were a tiny part of the world economy, perhaps the sanctions could be tolerated by the world economy. As it is, the Russia-Ukraine conflict acts to hide the underlying resource shortage problem. This is possible because, with the conflict, the resource shortages can be described as “temporary” and “necessary” in the context of the terrible things the Russians are doing. The way the West frames the problem provides a scapegoat to deflect anger toward, but it doesn’t fix the problem.
Russia started out being very disadvantaged because commodity prices, in recent years, have not been rising high enough to ensure an adequate living for Russian citizens and high enough tax revenue for the Russian government. Adding sanctions against Russia will simply make Russia’s problems worse.
[8] There is little reason to believe that Russia will “give up” in response to sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries.
The attacks by Russia of Ukrainian sites seems to be occurring for many related reasons. Russia can no longer tolerate being inadequately compensated for the resources it is extracting and selling to Ukraine and the rest of the world. It is tired of being “pushed around” by the rich economies, especially the United States, as NATO adds more countries. It is also tired of NATO training Ukrainian soldiers. Russia seems to have no plan to gain the entire territory of Ukraine; it is more of a temporary police action.
Russia’s underlying problem is that it can no longer produce commodities that the world wants as inexpensively as the world demands. Building all the infrastructure needed to extract and ship more fossil fuel resources would take more capital spending than Russia can afford. The selling price will never rise high enough to justify these investments, including the cost of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Russia has nothing to lose at this point. The current situation is not working; going back to it is no incentive for stopping the current conflict.
Russia is in some ways like a heavily armed, suicidal old man, who can no longer earn an adequate living. The economic system of Russia is no longer working as it should. Russia is incredibly well-armed. The situation reminds a person of the story of Samson, in his old age, taking down the temple of the Philistines and losing his own life at the same time. Russia has no reason to back down in response to sanctions.
[9] Leaders of the world, including Joe Biden, appear to be oblivious to the situation we are facing.
Leaders of the world have created ridiculous narratives that overlook the critical role commodities play. They seem to believe that it is possible to cut off purchases from Russia with, at most, temporary harm to the rest of the world economy.
The history of the world shows that the populations of many civilizations have outgrown their resource bases and have collapsed. Physics points out that this outcome is almost inevitable because of the way the Universe is constructed. Everything is constantly evolving, even economies. The climate is constantly evolving, as are the species inhabiting the Earth.
Elected leaders need a story of everlasting growth that they can tell their citizens. They cannot even consider the physics-based way the world economy operates, and the resulting expected pattern of overshoot and collapse. Modelers of what are intended to be long-lasting structures cannot accept this outcome either.
Limits which are defined based on affordability of end products are incredibly difficult to model, so creative narratives have been developed suggesting that humans can move away from fossil fuels if they so desire. No one stops to think that economies cannot continue to exist using a much lower quantity of energy, any more than an adult human can get along on 500 calories a day. Both are dissipative structures; the ongoing energy requirement is built in. Factories close when electricity, diesel and other energy products are cut off.
[10] The sanctions and the Russia-Ukraine conflict cannot end well.
The world economy is already on the edge of collapse because of the resource limits it is hitting. Intentionally stopping Russia’s output of resources like fertilizer and processed uranium is certain to make the situation worse, not better. Once Russia’s output is stopped, it is likely to be impossible to restart Russia’s production at the same level. Trained workers who lose their jobs will likely find jobs elsewhere, for one thing. The shortfall in output will affect countries around the world.
The United States dollar is now the world’s reserve currency. The sanctions being applied indirectly encourage countries to use other currencies to work around the sanctions. There seems to be a substantial chance that the US economy will lose its role as the center of international trade. If such a change takes place, the US will no longer be able to import far more than it exports, year after year.
A major issue is the huge amount of debt most countries of the world have. With a rapidly slowing world economy, repaying debt with interest will become impossible. Debt defaults will further wreak havoc with the world economic system.
We don’t know the exact timing of how this will play out, but the situation does not look good.
What????? We want ripping of faces… why are they giving them diesel????
A consignment of 40,000 metric tonnes of diesel from India reached Sri Lanka on Saturday, the fourth such assistance from New Delhi, to mitigate the spike in power cuts in the island nation. Power cuts lasting over 13 hours were imposed on Thursday, the longest cut since 1996 when a strike by the state power entity employees caused a 72-hour black out.
IIRC, Gail mentioned that some countries are buying Russian oil and reselling it at a profit. However Sri Lanka is in trouble because of debt and can’t repay their loans. So maybe India just wants to prolong the inevitable before ripping off faces begins.
Let the Ripping Begin!!!!
Show us what the humans are capable of!!!
According to IEA data, https://www.iea.org/countries/sri-lanka (scroll down, and find electricity generation by source to click on), electricity generation has been growing rapidly since 1990 in Sri Lanka. At first, it was almost all hydro-electric. Then oil generation was added, finally coal generation was added, (with the assistance of China, I understand). Now, it looks like those sources are about evenly split, with a tiny amount of wind and solar PV.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/IEA-Sri-Lanka-Electricity-Generation-by-Source-1024×511.png
The problem, I am sure, is that both coal and oil generation are both terribly expensive, especially if the coal has to be imported. Oil electricity generation is always very expensive; only island countries use it, because of its high cost.
Sri Lanka really needs to go back to using what electricity it can afford, which is likely mostly hydroelectric.
36-Hour Curfew In Sri Lanka, Social Media Sites Blocked:
Sri Lanka economic crisis: The latest official data released on Friday showed inflation in Colombo hit 18.7 per cent in March, the sixth consecutive monthly record. Food prices soared a record 30.1 per cent
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/sri-lanka-economic-crisis-ship-with-40-000-tonnes-of-diesel-under-indian-credit-line-reaches-island-nation-2858082
What is the point of a 36 hour curfew? People are just going to be 36 hours more angry and hungry.
Lock them down and starve them … dry run – here’s YOUR future:
A 36-hour curfew has been announced in Sri Lanka as a state of emergency is enforced amid violent protests against food and fuel shortages.
The move is aimed at stopping new protests – two days after crowds were accused of setting vehicles ablaze near the president’s private residence.
The military has since been deployed and now has the power to arrest suspects without warrants.
Sri Lanka is in the midst of a major economic crisis.
It is caused in part by a lack of foreign currency, which is used to pay for fuel imports.
Faced with power cuts lasting half a day or more, and a lack of fuel and essential food and medicines, public anger has reached a new high in the island nation of 22 million.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-60962185
Bravo Italy https://t.me/VigilantFox/3738
Dear Publisher,
Due to the war in Ukraine, we will pause monetization of content that exploits, dismisses, or condones the war.
Please note, we have already been enforcing on claims related to the war in Ukraine when they violated existing policies (for instance, the Dangerous or Derogatory content policy prohibits monetizing content that incites violence or denies tragic events). This update is meant to clarify, and in some cases expand, our publisher guidance as it relates to this conflict.
This pause includes, but is not limited to, claims that imply victims are responsible for their own tragedy or similar instances of victim blaming, such as claims that Ukraine is committing genocide or deliberately attacking its own citizens.
Until next time,
The Google Ad Manager Team
Wow.
Maybe you should become more gender neutral FE. It would tran’sfer a lot of your problems onto others.
“Due to the war in Ukraine, we will pause monetization of content that exploits, dismisses, or condones the war.”
Is not refusing the facts about the 2014 violent overthrow of a democratically elected government condoning war?
Oh i forgot. Its just words. You just create them to do what you want. No wonder the kids are so F***** up.
I know. When we line people up against the wall just call it a vaccine. Yup they are being vaccinated.
If anyone asserts that any MSM narrative about that ‘war’ is being faked (e.g. that the Russians are targeting civilians)…
Google will punish the publisher…. they can easily ‘no index’ you – which means they drop you off the search results so your traffic collapses… for those running google banners they can pull all campaigns — they did that to zero hedge a year or so back and forced the to clean up the comments…
How can the federal reserve raise interest rates with the US dead so high it’s a lot of short-term debt. It seems like that could never happen. The U. S will Not be able to service its that
I think that you mean, “How can the Federal Reserve raise interest rates with the US debt so high? Besides, it is a lot of short-term debt. The US will not be able to service its debt. It seems like that could never happen.”
Good question!
We are dealing with a situation of “Not enough goods and services to go around.” The government has been trying to hide the problem with lots of handouts to businesses and individuals, so that they can continue to buy goods and services. Since there really aren’t enough goods and services to go around, all the handouts do is make prices rise higher. Some sectors need to get cut out, to stop the rapid escalation in prices.
Governments have few levers for fixing this problem. They view the problem as “chronic escalating prices, especially of commodities”; a better description is “not enough goods and services to go around, together with governments flooding the world with additional purchasing power that has nowhere to go, other than inflation.”
If this additional buying power really allowed food producers to quickly produce more food and companies extracting fossil fuels to quickly extract more fossil fuels, the problem would solve itself quickly. If the problem is a shortage of resources because of depletion (and population rising too high relative to resource use), the problem doesn’t go away. It gets worse as depletion gets worse and as population rises.
Raising interest rates has the effect of cutting back spending in multiple sectors:
–Citizens are less able to make big purchases such as cars and homes, because debt becomes more expensive.
–Businesses are less able to make big purchases, such as new factories and stores. In fact, they are likely to see a significant reduction in the demand for their services, and start cutting investments and laying off workers.
–Governments, as you point out, have will have to pay higher interest rates on the funds that they will borrow. This makes governments somewhat less able to “bail out their economies” when raising interest rates inevitably leads to recession.
I have a hard time seeing why governments would take this course of action except:
1.They don’t really have any other approach to stop escalating prices, and voters seem to demand that prices stop escalating.
2. The beneficiaries of higher interest rates (banks, pension plans and insurance companies) are clamoring for higher interest rates, because their returns have been disproportionately low, relative to the higher cost of goods and services.
3. Sometimes the impact of higher interest rates disproportionately hits other places around the globe, instead of the local economies raising their interest rates. For example, in my opinion, the rise in interest rates leading up to 1980-1981 eventually led to the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union in 1991. (See Figure 5 in my post, above.) https://i0.wp.com/ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/US-3-month-and-10-year-interest-rates-to-Feb-28-2022.png
The Soviet Union was both a big producer and big consumer of energy products. The cutback in its consumption, as well as the consumption of its satellite countries, tended to help the rest of the world economy by keeping energy prices lower for an extended period, more or less until China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
4. Governments somehow think that they can keep borrowing, without issuing any actual debt as a placeholder. If QE can be expanded indefinitely, the use of QE gives the impression that debt can be added indefinitely, including QE needed to pay interest on prior debt.
5. No one has stopped to figure out how bad the recession would be if consumers are simultaneously hit with escalating commodity prices and higher interest rates, and there really aren’t cheap-to-produce resources to fix the problem.
Gail,
What difference can it make? There is less stuff than money to purchase said stuff; the only trick is to guess what stuff will be hard to get next.
The biggest issue with farming is the increased absolute costs. Five percent of a million dollar investment in planting is $50K, a $100k cost of planting is $5K; this is on say the same land, equipment, etc. The numbers are not real, it is an example.
How does one quantify the risk? Who holds that risk?
It looks to me like yields are gong down secondary to risk as well as shortages. The volatility in absolute terms is too big.
Dennis L.
Because they are the same people making the loans to the treasury via bonds mostly via intermediates. They dont care. Its treasury digital notes. THey can be created infinitely BUT their has to be a coresponding financial instrument that balances, They designate the treasury bonds “prime collateral”. Bank C buys bonds. Fed then loans bank C at 20x to 40x leverage. Digital treasury notes created- loan documents equal that- books balance no foul. And there is no mark to market on fed books and never has been. The value that the instruments is written in stone. Bank C only has to be able enough profit off the cash it controls to cover the interest on the bonds and interest on the fed loan of cash controlled. This incentivizing treasury bond purchases is preferable to the fed just bringing treasury bonds on their books which is too obviously loaning money to yourself. BUT the economy has to have the carrying capacity to create profit even if only a tiny bit above the primerate on the 20x to 40x cash of the goverment debt which is currently at 30 trillion. That the Fed does have treasuries on its books is telling. Why? Started in 2008 time frame. Gee inflation with 20x to 40x 30 trillion seeking a bit of profit. Think target of 3% rate will stop inflation?
The Falklands War started 39 years ago today. Woudhysen has a piece on spiked today. It was all about the British State projecting power on the seas.
> Why Britain went to war over the Falklands
There was always more at stake than a tiny group of islands 8,000 miles away.
On 2 April 1982, Argentina invaded the Falkland Islands, an archipelago in the South Atlantic. The Falklands were (as they still are) a British dependency. In response, the British state sent a Royal Navy task force to engage the Argentinian forces.
Looking back 40 years on, what was striking was the near unanimous support in Britain for the Falklands War. There was none of the dissent that later accompanied Tony Blair’s Iraq War in 2003. Quite the opposite. Then prime minister Margaret Thatcher was able to rally aggressive national chauvinism in favour of this particular conflict. And in doing so, she was able to attack the apparent disloyalty of a still militant working class at home. Famously, victorious Royal Marines sailed back into Southampton with an anti-trade-union banner emblazoned with the legend ‘call off the rail strike or we’ll call an airstrike’.
The Falklands certainly seemed to come along at the right time for Thatcher, who was unpopular with the public and her own cabinet at the time. But why did the war happen? And what might its legacy be?
The nature of the war
The decision to invade the Falklands was taken by the leader of the Argentinian junta, General Leopoldo Galtieri. It was an unprovoked act which was hated by the 1,800 islanders.
But war is never simply a matter of who started it. We must assess the nature of the combatants and the specifics of their dispute.
Let’s start with the Falkland Islands themselves. They did not comprise a nation deserving or wanting self-determination, in the way, say, that Ukraine clearly does today. They were a distant British outpost.
As for Britain, it was, if anything, still the imperial power in this conflict. It had built the railways that stretched throughout Argentina during the 19th century, and it had connived with its reactionary regimes until it was supplanted by Washington during the Second World War. More broadly, Britain was still an imperial presence in South America as a whole. UK-owned Lloyds Bank and Midland Bank alone were each owed a then-colossal £3 billion by Latin American countries in 1983.
Moreover, geographically and historically, Argentina had a proper claim to the islands. After all, it was imperial Britain that originally seized the Malvinas from a then fledgling, newly independent Argentina back in 1833.
So Argentina’s rulers may have thought they had right on their side. But they didn’t have much else. Argentina, with a population of just under 30million in 1982, was a weak nation. Unlike Britain, it had no role outside its immediate region, no nuclear weapons and no seat on the United Nations Security Council. And it had no powerful allies.
The Falklands War, then, was a thoroughly unequal contest, and not just in military terms – although things did get quite dicey for the British forces at times.
Moreover, as stated, British society was mobilised in support of the war. Opposition to it was distinctly muted. Liberals tended to content themselves with dismissing it all as unnecessary and disproportionate. Whereas the left, especially the Labour Party, seemed confused by the war’s outbreak and ill-prepared. Labour leader Michael Foot, confronted by what looked like a fascist banana republic, led by Galtieri in all his military regalia, even portrayed the war as a just struggle against fascism. Foot’s response was a sign of just how perplexed the left was by the Falklands War.
The war in context
The real, strategic reason for the war lay in plain sight, if only the British left had cared to look. As defence minister John Nott declared on 20 April 1982: ‘If you don’t stop an aggressor, albeit one that attacked a small group of islands 8,000 miles away, then someone else will have a go somewhere else in the world.’
In other words, in the midst of the Cold War, Britain’s rule and its martial reputation had to be defended at home and abroad, lest any sign of weakness be exploited – especially given the continuing ache of the debacle at Suez in 1956. The British state felt it had to stand tall in the Falklands, and demonstrate its strength once again as an independent nation.
After all, Britain’s US allies were not exactly rallying to its side, with US secretary of state Alexander Haig initially offering only limp support. Moreover, if we are to accept the conclusions of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, US satellites could have potentially provided intelligence about the invasion. As SIPRI, looking at two US satellite tracks, put it in 1983, ‘it can be seen that, during orbits 12205 and 12221, satellite 1980-10A flew over several Argentine military bases on 27 March and over the Falkland / Malvinas Islands on 28 March and 2 April, the day of the invasion’ (1).
In other words, it is very probable that Washington knew about the invasion five or more days beforehand. But did it tell London? That seems unlikely. Latin America, and especially Argentina, was Uncle Sam’s sphere of influence, not Britain’s (2). So, given the initial lukewarm backing from Washington, London had little choice but to show steel not just to Argentina, but to America, too.
While the Cold War still had seven years to run, the Falklands War set the pattern for plenty of wars after it. Instead of a nuclear-missile exchange between European tank armies, it underlined to the ruling class the importance of conventional weapons and sea power, especially when dealing with developing countries.
Today much has changed, of course. But, with Britain having recently sent an aircraft carrier to fly the flag near Taiwan, the Falklands War is a reminder that Britain has long used the sea to project its power.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/04/02/why-britain-went-to-war-over-the-falklands/
Again, “Hidden History” as a framework on how this sort of thing has been done for over 100 years. We are but observers.
Dennis L.
* 40 years ago lol.
Take aways from the article? There does seem to be some implicit bourgeois nonsense in it.
“Let’s start with the Falkland Islands themselves. They did not comprise a nation deserving or wanting self-determination, in the way, say, that Ukraine clearly does today. They were a distant British outpost.”
The USA was a distant British outpost too, until it took self-determination, likewise Canada, NZ, Australia. Falklands does not ‘deserve’ self-determination? Granted they do not ‘want’ it. But given the choice between independence and Argentinian occupation, they likely would opt for it.
What exactly are the conditions for ‘deserving’ it? Do small islands with small populations not ‘deserve’ it? What about any number of small island nations with small populations? It seems unlikely that Woudhysen is claiming that they can be dispossessed of their territory.
Presumably they do not have to be self-sufficient to ‘deserve’ self-determination, as nearly all countries are integrated into globalism, and the British State and USA &c. hardly earn their way in their world through ‘honest labour’, depending on what we mean by that. The petro-dollar?
It comes down to whatever the society ‘approves’ of, and that is relative. Eg. banking for interest was seen as illegitimate in times and places. Do countries that take aid lose the ‘deserve’ of self-determination? I doubt that Woudhysen would argue that either, so it is not really clear what he thinks that he is claiming there.
‘Deserve’ is entirely made up anyway, including that of the Ukraine. It simply does not exist in reality. Does anyone still really ‘believe’ that it does? Ideas of ‘deserve’ reflect the structure of the society and how it organises itself. And so it is entirely relative.
The obvious definition would be what is ‘earned’, but even that is relative. In nature, animals take what they need, and they do not jump through socially endorsed hoops. Facts are facts, in reality, and ‘possession is 100% of the law’. ‘Criminals’ are simply not socially ‘approved’ of.
And, we say that humans ‘deserve’ support, if they cannot earn, just by virtue of being human, and that assumes fairly advanced energetic and material conditions, eg. the welfare state. And some countries provide a minimal income, eg. Scandinavia, regardless. It is all made up, it is just how societies organise themselves.
It would be naive to suppose that any relative criteria of ‘deserve’ has any objectivity or universality. It all depends on what people agree on, and the material conditions. So, it is anyone’s say, Falkland islanders, or some other small island, as much as Ukraine or Woudhysen. No one elected them ‘god’.
Mainly the ‘moral’ perspective, in practice, endorses the conditions required for the support of a particular lifestyle, which is variable. It is aimed at the maintenance and advance of life, and there is nothing ‘magical’ or ‘mysterious’ about it. So it depends on how societies organise themselves.
The perspective is relative in the same way as the conditions are. It is clumsy, even naive, or plain dishonest, to assume, or to pretend, that the same criteria applies to everyone, in varied conditions, when really perspectives are precisely whatever suits people in their conditions anyway.
“So Argentina’s rulers may have thought they had right on their side.”
‘Right’ is entirely made up. See above.
Why would it be assumed that the weaker party is ‘right’ simply by virtue of its weakness? Why are strong acts ‘wrong’? According to what standard? Not that of nature, or reality, clearly. It is completely made up, and the world does not really work like that.
No one, and certainly not the British State, imagines that it does. Yet everyone pretends that it does – what is that all about? ‘Moral posturing’. Humans are a species that pretends all sorts of nonsense, even when no one even really ‘believes’ it. Bizarre.
The early liberal philosophers openly argued that ‘right’ lies with the stronger, when European countries, particularly Britain, seized land off less advanced peoples, like in the Americas. And Catholic theologians, too. So, the attitude to the ‘rights’ of the stronger depends on whatever suits people in the historical conditions.
‘All morality is will to power’, and the attitudes will vary depending on what advances power. These days, with globalism, it suits states to have a stability, to peacefully accumulate capital, so they pretend that they believe that nonsense, and they ‘work around’ it, and pretend to be ‘just’, when that suits them.
The article raises all of the usual questions, if only by not explicitly raising them, which is about the most that we can hope for in this ‘intellectual culture’. The ‘battle of ideas’ in our ‘culture’ is little more than the duplication of stale propaganda that no one really finds convincing – it is conformist virtue-signalling.
‘Let us all pretend that we are not relativists, we are the true!’ (blink) ‘It is just a coincidence that we happen to agree with the society into which we were socialised (in its latest views). It is the true society!’ (blink) It is more like a ‘battle’ to see who can be the most naive and conformist.
Eg.
> ‘All the World was America’ – John Locke and the American Indian
Abstract
This thesis examines the role played by America and its native inhabitants in John Locke’s Two Treatises of Government. It begins by examining the large collection of travel books written by explorers to the new world in Locke’s library. Locke uses the information from these sources selectively, employing those facts which support his view of natural man and ignoring those which do not. His reasons for using the Indians in his Two Treatises goes beyond simply providing empirical evidence. Locke, steeped in the colonial zeal of his patron, the Earl of Shaftesbury, is, particularly in the chapters on property and conquest, arguing In favour of the rights of English colonists. While it has been recognized that Locke’s political philosophy reflects the domestic political needs of Shaftesbury, very little has been written in previous scholarship about the Earl’s colonial aims. Locke, as secretary to both the Lords Proprietors of Carolina and the Council of Trade and Plantations, was immersed in the colonial questions of his day. Following in the steps of Hugo Grotius, whose notions of property and war were shaped by his employment In the East Indies Company, Locke uses natural law to defend England’s colonization of America. His chapters on property and conquest delineate a very English form of settlement. By beginning property in a very specific form of labour, namely agrarian settlement, and denying the right to take over land by virtue of conquest, Locke creates the means by which England can defend its claims in America with regard to both other European powers and the native Indians. The strength of this argument is demonstrated by the extent to which it was used by ministers, politicians and judges in the early years of the American republic. In particular, Thomas Jefferson’s powerful attempts to transform large groups of nomadic Indians into settled farmers can be traced back to Locke’s ideas of the natural state and civil society.
https://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/id/eprint/1317765/1/283910.pdf
Another instance of creating narratives to suit the needs of a particular group of people. “Everyone else should be like us.”
Very much so. Locke developed his theory of ‘property’ precisely to justify the seizure of native American lands. So, hunter-gathering of the land does not constitute ‘ownership’ of land, which begins with settled farming. Thus the hunter-gatherers could be deprived of their hunting grounds and supplanted by agrarian colonists. Moreover, the hunter-gatherers could be ‘improved’, raised to a ‘civilised’ status, and locally confined; indeed, they could even be employed as labourers on the colonists’ farms. Once they were hunter-gatherers, and then colonists’ farms took over, and it was ‘true’, and how things really ‘ought’ to be according to the nature of reality itself. LOL
Obviously property ‘rights’ are entirely made up, and they have no basis in ‘reality’ itself, as if it includes some constant ‘moral truth’ about how humans ought to ‘organise’ their societies. Property forms develop along with the economic base, from hunter-gathering, to classical slavery, through feudalism and into bourgeois wage-labour. They are ‘agreed’ ways that societies organise themselves in their energetic and material conditions. So, there is no ‘moral truth’ according to which one culture ‘may’ supplant another. Rather, humans are expanding their power, the dissipative structure is expanding, and it is assimilating natural and human resources to itself, because that is what they do.
The dissipative structures generate ‘narratives’ in consciousness that facilitate their own functioning in its current conditions and ‘dynamics’ (I mean ‘shifts’ there). The human components of the structure are ordered to the structure through their organic drives, their own dissipative tendencies. And they are ideologically and socially orientated to perform their acts and roles in the dissipative dynamic through the generated narratives. Locke’s theory of natural law and property rights is an historical instance of that phenomenon. It orientated early north American colonists to supplant the ‘native’ dissipative structure with a more intense structure.
Dissipative structures compete for existence through the maximisation of power to their own maintenance and expansion. So, on a fundamental physical, energetic level, a more powerful dissipative structure simply expanded itself into north America and outcompeted a rival structure for existence. That is what all dissipative structures do, including social structures. There is nothing really ‘moral’ or ‘immoral’ about that. Rather moral narratives reflect the shift in the dissipative structure, and they orientate humans to play their roles in that shift. So, the dissipative structure generated, among others, the influential philosophy of Locke to frame the shift as ‘moral’.
There is no overarching ‘morality’, separate from the perspectives in consciousness that are generated by the dissipative structures, according which those moral perspectives might be framed as ‘moral’ or ‘immoral’. Rather those categories are generated in consciousness by the structure, relative to its condition, so as to allow it to function. They are ‘located’ within their temporal functionality, and they have their ‘meaning’ only within that context. The dissipative structures compete for existence, generate narratives, and the narratives, including the moral narratives, of the successful structures supplant those of the failed structures.
So, the ‘superiority’ of the moral narrative is secondary to the superiority of the structure itself that generated the narrative. In a secondary sense, we might say, that narrative is ‘superior’ that facilitates the success of the more powerful dissipative structure over the less powerful, failing structure. Moral narratives may then be evaluated according to their facilitation of the more powerful structure. But they are not ‘superior’ absolutely, in abstraction from the dissipative conditions that they facilitate, as if they would be superior in all conditions. Their ‘superiority’ is secondary to the structure, and it depends entirely on the prevailing conditions.
Obviously that is not to say that the narratives function by framing themselves in those terms in common consciousness. It is commonly, and completely denied that moral narratives are temporary and energetically conditioned, and that they are simply ordered to power. The narratives do not commonly function by admitting that stuff, which is not to say that they never do. It is usually pretended that they express ‘eternal and unconditioned moral truth’. Every new moral narrative is presented as such, and for the sake of functionality, humans pretend that they do not espy that they are all simply ordered to power in given circumstances.
And the dissipative structures do not generate only abstract ‘moral’ narratives to orientate humans to their dynamics, but all sorts of narratives, like lockdown, climate change, ‘just wars’, ‘anti-racism’ &c., all of which, nevertheless, do contain a ‘moral’ aspect about what humans ‘ought’ to do, or are ‘right’ to do. Humans tend to be orientated by those categories, although it is possible, at least for some, to orientate without them, through dissipative and organic categories, and the pleasant satisfaction of the organic drives. And thus humans are orientated to the functionality and dynamics of the dissipative structure, usually though some made up nonsense about ‘moral truth’.
As you say, the philosophy of Locke, like the early Catholic natural law theory, is an example of how humans were orientated to the expansion of more powerful, successful dissipative structures into north and south America, and to the replacement of weaker, thus failing structures; and it is connected to the narratives that we encounter today in our own dissipative conditions. This is a passage early on in Morag’s dissertation about Locke, and it frames the focus of her study. She does not have our dissipative perspective, but her work entirely supports it, and it shows how Locke’s ‘liberal’ philosophy facilitated dissipative dynamics.
> Within this general dichotomy of civil and savage states was the central question of property. It has been noted, by scholars of native history, that the shift in attitudes towards the Indians’ land in the latter half of the 17th century was a direct consequence of the change in England’s colonial ambitions. Francis Jennings, Loren Pennington and Gary Nash have described how the dispossession of the Indians became a central goal only when English objectives in America shifted from trade and mining to settlement. Jennings, in particular, describes how the definition of property was changed to suit the new goals of the colonists. The implications for the American natives, as she points out, were devastating. Not only did the Indians have to be removed from the land but attempts were made, over the next two hundred years to make them farmers rather than hunters.
The centrality of agrarian labour to the dispossession and conversion of Indians during the first few decades of the United States has been described in depth by historians such as Wilcomb Washburn and Francis Paul Prucha. Wilbur Jacobs in his book, Dispossessing the American Indians, identifies Locke’s Two Treatises as the original source for this theory of private property. He does not, however, explore, in any depth, the relationship between Locke, America and the native Indians, but chooses, instead, to point out how the argument was developed by subsequent American leaders.
Thus, no body of scholarship has yet drawn the links between the colonial plans of England in America, Locke’s involvement in such projects, the development of his theory of property as a response, in part, to these needs, and the ultimate implications of his thoughts for the natives of America.
Eg. utilitarianism (the ‘greater happiness’) became dominant in the ideological justification for the permanence and extension of British rule in India, and for the modern ‘development’ of Indian society and economy in a manner that was profitable for Britain.
> James Mill’s Utilitarianism & British Imperialism in India
Introduction
Throughout the years of his involvement in the colonial administration of India from 1819-1835 in the East India Company, James Mill persistently held a conviction that India needed enlightenment and progress. The paper attempts to unravel how Mill applied his utilitarianism and theory of progress to justify the British rule in India. This issue has been neglected or taken for granted in the literature on Mill’s view on the Indians and British India.
In section I, I unravel Mill’s grand vision in bringing about the global happiness of humankind with particular reference to Asian nations. It shows why Mill believed that if non-European peoples in Asia, including India, were enlightened through interacting with the Europeans, they would progress and the global happiness would be increased. Then I discuss why Mill thought that the Indians would progress more readily if the whole continent of India was brought under British rule.
Before taking up the post in the East India Company in 1819, Mill delineated in sundry journal writings and his massive History of British India a dilemma which the British Indian government had to resolve if they intended to keep British India and extended their rulership to the remaining parts of India. On the one hand, Britain suffered substantial economic loss and political disadvantages in governing India. On the other hand, India would progress and the Indians would be able to have more happiness under British rule than when they were governed by their native kings. Thus, if only the benefits which the Indians would gain from British rule were taken into account, it was desirable for the British to rule the Indians. However, whether the British should take a total control of India depended on whether there would be an overall utility or disutility.
Section II examines why Mill believed that from the utilitarian perspective, there would be an overall utility if the British kept British India, which included the provinces of Bengal, Bombay, and Madras, and if the British extended their rule to the remaining parts of India. I attempt to unravel the consistency of Mill’s and Bentham’s accounts in arguing for an emancipation of the British colonies in America while supporting an extension of British rule to the whole continent of India.
In section III, I delineate what Mill thought to be the best means for the British to subjugate the whole continent of India. Basically, there were two ways to extend British rule: either by making conquest over the native states or through inducing the voluntary consent of the Indians. I shall show why Mill thought that it was not justified for the British to wage offensive wars against the independent native states for the purpose of subjugating the Indians, and why the only legitimate way was in Mill’s view to induce the consent of the native princes.
https://tamilnation.org/oneworld/imperialism.pdf
Eg. Catholics used early humanist ‘natural law’ philosophy to justify the Spanish domination of south America.
> 2. Natural Law and the Age of Discovery
The Spanish conquest of the Americas sparked a theological, political, and ethical debate about the use of military force to acquire control over foreign lands. This debate took place within the framework of a religious discourse that legitimized military conquest as a way to facilitate the conversion and salvation of indigenous peoples. The idea of a “civilizing mission” was by no means the invention of the British in the nineteenth century. The Spanish conquistadores and colonists explicitly justified their activities in the Americas in terms of a religious mission to bring Christianity to the native peoples. The Crusades provided the initial impetus for developing a legal doctrine that rationalized the conquest and possession of infidel lands. Whereas the Crusades were initially framed as defensive wars to reclaim Christian lands that had been conquered by non-Christians, the resulting theoretical innovations played an important role in subsequent attempts to justify the conquest of the Americas. The core claim was that the “Petrine mandate” to care for the souls of Christ’s human flock required Papal jurisdiction over temporal as well as spiritual matters, and this control extended to non-believers as well as believers.
The conversion of the native peoples, however, did not provide an unproblematic justification for the project of overseas conquest. The Spanish conquest of the Americas was taking place during a period of reform when humanist scholars within the Church were increasingly influenced by the natural law theories of theologians such as St. Thomas Aquinas. According to Pope Innocent IV, war could not be waged against infidels and they could not be deprived of their property simply because of their non-belief. Under the influence of Thomism, Innocent IV concluded that force was legitimate only in cases where infidels violated natural law. Nonbelievers had legitimate dominion over themselves and their property, but this dominion was abrogated if they proved incapable of governing themselves according to principles that every reasonable person would recognize. The Spanish quickly concluded that the habits of the native Americans, from nakedness to unwillingness to labor to alleged cannibalism, clearly demonstrated their inability to recognize natural law. This account of native customs was used to legitimize the enslavement of the Indians, which the Spanish colonists insisted was the only way to teach them civilization and introduce them to Christianity.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/colonialism/#NatLawAgeDis
“This account of native customs was used to legitimize the enslavement of the Indians.”
It is strange what people can come up with. Of course, if people think God is behind their own order, and not behind other ways of doing things, then anything else is wrong.
All of this is related to the strange narratives people come up with now to justify what they are doing. The narratives back then were in some sense just as strange. If Indians could be made slaves, this justified not paying them more than required for their basic living expenses. It was an inexpensive source of energy that could be put to use!
Theories of property rights, utilitarianism, natural law… just about any philosophical theory can be, and indeed was, purposed to justify the domination by the stronger peoples of the weaker peoples. ‘All morality is will to power’, and humans will make up whatever nonsense serves their purposes in the conditions that prevail at the time.
If states are currently given to moral posturing about the universal state ‘right’ to ‘sovereignty’ (eg. for Ukraine) then it is because that serves their purposes for peaceable capital accumulation in the prevailing conditions of economic globalisation. That globalisation now suits them just as colonialism and imperialism used to suit them.
Of course, it does not always suit the states to observe the ‘sovereignty’ of all of the other states, and then they pose as the ‘just’ actor, and they purpose medieval theories of the ‘just war’, or ‘humanitarianism’, or the extension of ‘liberal democracy’. States always find some pretext to violate the supposed universal ‘sovereignty’ of other states.
Theories of ‘right’ or whatever are always relative to the interests of the states. There is no ‘progress’ in morals, and indeed there is no overarching criteria that might delimitate ‘progress’ in morals. ‘Morals’ are not an attempt to conform to ‘ideals’ but rather the manufacture of ‘ideals’ that serve the current purpose of the day.
Jorge Luis Borges : It is like two bald men fighting for a comb.
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/gazprom-halts-gas-shipments-europe-critical-pipeline
Yay….
I think this is a bit clickbaity, as Yamal flows have been fluctuating east/west and sporadically halting for months now. It makes it sound as if there is something decisive and seismic occurring.
I can’t find anything from today but yesterday “…flows via other major Russian supply routes were steady despite President Vladimir Putin’s vow to cut off flows unless customers pay in roubles.”
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/gas-flows-via-yamal-europe-pipeline-resume-eastwards-other-flows-steady-2022-04-01/
I agree. Payment deadlines are at the end of April, so any flow cut will happen around May 1.
I’m strongly inclined to take it at face value. If Gazprom has abandoned it’s German subsidiary then it sure as shit ain’t gonna keep supplying it unless Germany caves.
But that’s just the war theater. Germany isn’t going to cave until the neolib/neocon order is assembled on the gangplank in a couple few months or so, because that’s the script the Elders have penned, and all the world’s a stage.
Besides, zerohedge was and is scripted to be the premier online foil and antagonist, and as such it couldn’t make such a glaring mistake because the Elders wouldn’t script the antagonists as unreliable narrators, because that would be counterproductive.
It’s not that ZH is making a glaring mistake – the Reuters article confirms that Yamal flows went east on Friday – it’s just spinning the information to make it sound as if this denotes a conclusive cessation of gas supplies from Russia to the EU:
“Russian gas giant Gazprom has officially halted all deliveries to Europe via the critical Yamal-Europe pipeline… it’s not just the Germans who must now make do without Russian gas supplies.”
It is shoddy journalism IMO.
Zero Hedge doesn’t look into the details.
Slight shifts backward may be normal, in certain situations.
Yeah I’m aware of reverse flows, and that this one started a couple days ago.
The creator and owner of ZH Daniel Ivandjiiski (trough ABC Media Ltd. registered in Bulgaria) is a son of famous family which was occupying high level positions in the security apparatus of communist Bulgaria. After the changes in 1989 his family and many others from the same professional circle were directly taken under the wing of cia and state dept. You can bet the house, the farm and the kids that Daniel is not a fateful actor.
You are right Geno. All you need to do is look at what ZH did at the beginning of the “pandemic”. Not just posting nonsense but censoring dissent.
ZH – along with FOX – is just another flavour of the matrix…. you don’t exist as a big traffic platform without attracting the attention of the Elders… They will quickly cut off your revenue streams if you go of the reservation…
Yeah ZH has been pure controlled opposition on the plandemic. Because the National Socialist umbrella politics of controlled opposition is what the Elders have in store for us. Tulsi Gabbard and Sahra Wagenknecht, supported by minions ZH, Joe Rogan, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Russell Brand, Candace Owens, Ben Carson, Ron and Rand Paul, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, and all the bandwagoneers of the world. Signed sealed and delivered.
That would not be spin, that would be a glaring mistake.
Spin is political journalism.
Glaring mistakes are major factual errors. Can you point to any examples of ZH making major factual errors?
Spin can be political PR or it can just be a distortion or falsifying of information, as in “spinning a tale”.
Re ZH, I think I’ll just wait and watch events unfold. If their interpretation is correct and the EU “now has to do without Russian gas supplies” then I’m sure some other news outlets will be picking up on it presently.
Harry…., the distortion or falsification of information is called disinformation, not spin.
ZH is politicized to be sure, but it is not a disinfo site.
Still, like you say, the question remains whether ZH is right or wrong with this headline. If it’s right then it’s a wink wink nudge nudge, say no more leak, right gino?
It could be that Russia never announces it and it’s days til anyone figures it out lol. That’s what I’d do
… Although it doesn’t take much figuring if we review what Putin said:
“Putin said during a televised government meeting: “They must open rouble accounts in Russian banks.
“It is from these accounts that payments will be made for gas delivered starting tomorrow, April 1.”
He continued: “If such payments are not made, we will consider this a breach of obligations on the part of our buyers with all the ensuing consequences.””
Delivered starting April 1.
Maybe it’s not a nudge nudge and ZH just isn’t operating in denial like the Western world.
Maybe they shut it off for a few days… to send a message.
That Indian shipment of diesel still got you down Eddy?
Try the power of positive thinking!
That’s definitely a disappointment… but on the + side… it’s like slapping a band-aid on a massive gash… hopefully we get to conduct our ripping of faces experiment in Sri Lanka soon
What about Germany?
I prefer Sri Lanka to be the Face Ripping experiment — it’s an island so can be contained.
Just to show everyone what happens when resources run dry — you know what I mean?
So they understand why all governments are supporting the CEP
Harry, they can only serve reality in two ways;
1. On a silver plate
2. Through a crisis
Hopefully this is true. If it is surely Germany industry craters very soon.
“A Tanker’s Giant U-Turn Reveals Strains in the Market for Russian Oil.
“The ship, originally sailing to Philadelphia, apparently lost its buyer in the middle of the Atlantic. A number of tankers carrying Russian oil face similar problems.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/02/climate/oil-tankers-russia.html
“Russian oil tankers are increasingly going dark in order to evade US-led sanctions.
“Dark activity refers to when ships’ transponders and automatic identification systems (AIS) are shut off for long periods of time.”
https://www.cnbctv18.com/world/its-a-red-flag-russian-oil-tankers-are-going-dark-to-evade-sanctions-13007862.htm/amp
“Sberbank’s UK arm faces collapse amid Russia sanctions
“While Sberbank’s UK unit hasn’t been specifically sanctioned, its parent company has been banned from clearing sterling payments through the UK and has been cut off from the US financial system.”
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/economy/2022/4/1/sberbanks-uk-arm-faces-collapse-amid-russia-sanctions
“Russia to halt cooperation on International Space Station over ‘illegal’ sanctions.
“Branding the situation as “unacceptable”, Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the country’s Roscosmos space agency, said it would no longer work with partners, including NASA and the European Space Agency on the orbital outpost.”
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-russia-to-halt-cooperation-on-international-space-station-over-illegal-sanctions-12580214
We really don’t know how all of this will “shake out” in the next month or two. There are indirect impact, and there are ways Russia can respond.
“Defaults on wealth management products double in China.
“The woes of China’s property market have led to a surge in defaults on wealth management products tied to real estate projects, angering retail investors and hitting an important source of funding for an already cash-strapped industry.”
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Defaults-on-wealth-management-products-double-in-China
“Chinese Vice Premier calls for greater effort to stabilise foreign trade…
“Commerce Minister Wang Wentao said in March that China’s economy faced multiple challenges at home and abroad this year, including “huge” pressure from uncertainty over global trade and still-lacklustre domestic consumption.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinese-vice-premier-calls-greater-effort-stabilise-foreign-trade-xinhua-2022-04-02/
I was expect defaults on wealth management funds tied to real estate projects to start. People will not want to fund these projects, if they can see that they often default.
“Mexico’s manufacturing sector contracted for the 25th month in a row in March, amid rising inflation, global shortages of materials, and economic uncertainty due to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, a survey showed on Friday…
““With Mexico’s manufacturing industry stuck in contraction and inflationary pressures mounting, the latest results ring alarm bells for policymakers,” said Pollyanna De Lima, economics associate director at S&P Global.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSZON005BGP?il=0
“Migrant caravan clashes with authorities in southern Mexico.
“Hundreds of migrants set off on foot from the southeastern Mexican border city of Tapachula on Friday with the goal of reaching this capital and regularizing their status, but they clashed with federal authorities soon after embarking on their trek.”
https://www.laprensalatina.com/migrant-caravan-clashes-with-authorities-in-southern-mexico/
Also, Mexico’s oil production has been in decline since 2004. At one time, Mexico had enough oil for exports; now it is a net oil importer. This is part of the country’s problem.
“Bolivia and Argentina postpone decision on gas supply contract.
“According to energy analysts, northern Argentina may suffer gas shortages if Bolivia does not comply with the delivery of 14 million cubic meters (MMm3/day) in the winter.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2022/04/02/bolivia-and-argentina-postpone-decision-on-gas-supply-contract
“Cold winter and fuel shortages ahead for Argentina…
““It’s going to be a tough winter in terms of fuel supplies because of Argentina’s diminished access to strong currencies like the dollar,” said Agustín Gerez, commander of state-owned energy company Ieasa, which organizes the country’s LNG tenders. “We hope winter will be mild and contain the demand”.”
https://en.mercopress.com/2022/03/30/cold-winter-and-fuel-shortages-ahead-for-argentina
“Argentina farmers warn fuel shortages could hamper harvest.
“Argentine grains farmers warned on Friday about diesel shortages potentially hitting the ongoing harvest of soybeans and corn, the South American country’s two main crops.”
https://www.agriculture.com/markets/newswire/argentina-farmers-warn-fuel-shortage-could-hamper-harvest
Bolivia will not comply, or largely won’t. A US private equity firm is the brand new owner of Bolivian pipeline operations,, and the Elders are seeing to it that Bolivian gas will become focused on domestic stability (Export Land Model):and lithium production for US consumption.
According to the article, the issue seems to be “Bolivia does not have the capacity to deliver the 14 MMm3/day that it delivered to the country last year.”
Argentina has lots of other problems too. Argentina’s oil production has been declining since 2001. Argentina’s natural gas supply has been doing somewhat better. Its highest production was in 2006, and it hasn’t fallen too much since then, but it hasn’t grown as I am sure the country would prefer.
Argentina seems to use both LNG imports and imported natural gas from Bolivia.
“Pakistan is finding it difficult to pay even its embassy staff revealing the dire economic straits that the country finds itself in, a media report said.
“In a major embarrassment for the country, Pakistan Embassy in Serbia through its official Twitter handle recently disclosed that the government had not paid its dues for three months.”
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/pakistan-unable-to-pay-its-embassy-staff-shows-dire-economic-condition-report20220402173009/
“Sri Lankan President declares state of emergency following violent protests over economic crisis.
“Sri Lanka’s President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has declared a nationwide public emergency following violent protests outside his home over the country’s worst economic crisis in decades.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/01/asia/sri-lanka-state-of-emergency-protests-intl-hnk/index.html
Not paying embassy staff sounds bad!
“Turkey raises natural gas prices for industry, households.
“Turkish state-owned energy importer BOTAS said late on Thursday it had raised natural gas prices for industrial facilities by 50% and those for households by 35%, raising the prospect of further stoking inflation which is expected to top 60% in March.”
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/turkey-raises-natural-gas-prices-industry-households
With higher prices, there is at least some chance of being able to get supplies to match demand at these higher prices.
“Cash strapped Lebanon struggles to keep lights on for polling day.
“Lebanon’s electricity company is charging $16 million to supply power on the day of the May 15 parliamentary polls, a sum that exceeds the overall election budget by nearly 30 percent, the interior minister said.”
https://arynews.tv/lebanon-struggles-to-turn-lights-on-for-polling-day/
“Palestinians feeling the pinch as prices soar.
“Growing numbers of Palestinians are struggling to prepare for Ramadan in the face of soaring prices for essential items and rising jobless rates, consumer experts warn.”
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2055276/middle-east
“France wants countries with surplus grain stocks to consider releasing supplies as part of a plan to shield poorer countries from the impact of the war in Ukraine on food staples, a French official said on Thursday.
“French President Emmanuel Macron announced the initiative, called “FARM”, last week at a meeting of G7 countries…”
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/france-eyes-grain-stocks-release-in-world-food-security-plan/
“White House is worried about famine overseas due to Russia-Ukraine war, economic advisor says.
“The Biden administration is worried Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause famine in parts of the world, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse told CNBC on Friday.”
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/01/russia-ukraine-war-white-house-is-worried-about-famine-overseas.html
“The Biden administration is worried Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause famine in parts of the world, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse told CNBC on Friday.”
should be
“The Biden administration is worried the US sponsored Ukraine coup in 2014, and subsequent US weaponizing of Ukraine against Russia for 8 years, and supporting Ukraine violating the Minsk agreements for 6 years, resulting in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine….. will cause famine in parts of the world, White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair Cecilia Rouse told CNBC on Friday.”
fixed it for you
Indeed, as my comment under my alias H Zilla states, this PBS “documentary” is a perfect example of disinformation and propaganda spin by the mainstream media. Anything is possible when taken out of context.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MsfUiTJv2lE&lc=z23sd3uyaljth1h35acdp433sc0qjkgjw4he5gpbj1pw03c010c
H Zilla
13 days ago (edited)
A good “documentary” for instruction to naive viewers how sophisticated propaganda is. Russian influencing elections? Clapper, Brennan, Clapper, Clintonetc. you believe these people? You drink koolaid and donate to PBS? Study the verifiable facts in context, ignorant fools.There is a lot more to this story than you are being told.
I think a Zerohedge video from a few days shows Biden saying that the sanctions will be causing famine, in many other countries.
Biden Casually Says Food Shortage “Going To Be Real” As Necessary “Price” Of Anti-Russia Sanctions
How do the poor countries afford to buy these grains? Don’t they disproportionately go to China, which has recently bought up world supplies of grain?
“U.S. Farmers Pivot From Corn to Soy Amid Fertilizer Crunch.
“U.S. farmers are expected to plant more soybeans than corn for the third time ever as the highest fertilizer prices on record prompt growers to turn away from the cost-intensive grain. Corn and wheat futures surged in Chicago.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/finance/news/u-farmers-pivot-corn-soy-163048486.html
“Cumbrian farmers [UK] are facing cost rises of up to 300 per cent which, it is predicted, could lead to a ‘massive wipeout’ of huge sections of the farming community.
“And the tsunami of escalating prices could mean further price rises in shops – and even food shortages.”
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/price-rises-food-shortages-set-110000519.html
“Hundreds of UK egg farms are at risk of collapse after surging input costs were pushed up still further by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the industry has warned.
“The British Egg Industry Council …has written to the chief executives of UK supermarkets calling for consumer prices for eggs to increase. The British Free Range Egg Association said the price of a dozen eggs should immediately rise by 40p.”
https://www.ft.com/content/f42432cf-9cdb-48ee-abd5-d0f31428632c
The article says,
I notice the article did not say, “As a result of inadequate world supply, relative to demand.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine didn’t directly affect the UK very much, except to the extent that it decided not to purchase energy products from Russia. The UK is too far away from Russia to get much natural gas from Russia. The UK’s problem is more the diesel it has turned away, and the high prices coming from worldwide shortages, even before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
As someone who eats more soybeans than meat, I don’t have a major problem with this. But it will cut back on corn used for animal feed and for ethanol production.
Beans of all kinds seem to be higher priced now.
“Thousands of people will take to the streets in the UK in protest against the sharp rise in energy prices, as a cabinet minister said the government could not “completely nullify” the increases.
“Demonstrations are due to take place on Saturday, including one outside Downing Street in central London, and others in Cardiff and Birmingham.”
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/apr/02/protests-energy-prices-cap-uk-electricity-gas-household-bills
“French Grid Manager Asks Users to Reduce Consumption on Monday.
“France’s electricity grid manager asked businesses and households to cut consumption as a cold snap pushes demand higher at a time time when around half of the country’s nuclear reactors are offline.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-02/french-grid-manager-asks-users-to-reduce-consumption-on-monday
“Algeria warns of possible gas price increase for Spain amid row over Western Sahara.
“Algeria’s state-owned energy giant Sonatrach warned Friday it could increase the price of its gas sales to Spain, against the backdrop of a diplomatic row with Madrid over the disputed Western Sahara.”
https://english.alaraby.co.uk/news/algeria-warns-possible-gas-price-increase-spain
Declining extraction in Algeria.
Half the reactors are offline! This is a huge problem for France. If it plans to use nuclear, it cannot take half its reactors off line. It used to be a major electricity exporters.
Yes, that caught my eye as well. Why so many at once?
“Global fundraising in capital markets shrinks by $900bn in first quarter.
“Global fundraising in capital markets shrivelled by more than $900bn in the first quarter from the same period in 2021 as surging inflation, war in Ukraine and volatile asset prices delayed stock listings and hampered bond deals… New stock market debuts all but dried up in the US…”
https://www.ft.com/content/12dd5864-bd0c-4d2b-8f01-4d3d466b7d6b
“London IPO Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in More Than a Decade.
“London initial public offerings are off to their slowest start since the global financial crisis, as volatile markets and poor post-listing performances crimp investor appetite.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-01/london-s-ipo-market-hasn-t-been-this-bad-in-more-than-a-decade
Not much confidence the world economy can do will with high fuel prices. If high debt prices are added, the situation will be even worse.
“Living in a world of higher interest rates… It is already clear who will bear the cost of inflation. Rising prices are due to hit households hard…
“Those lucky enough to have savings are seeing them whittled away to cover dramatic increases in the cost of living.”
https://www.ft.com/content/84fa7a04-9e94-4c47-9e42-5bc6530334a9
“Central Banks Too Slow to Counter Inflation, UBS Chair Tells NZZ…
“In a worst case scenario, the world economy could soon resemble the 1970s with an energy crisis, massive price increases for raw materials and geopolitical conflict akin to that during the Cold War, said Axel Weber.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-02/central-banks-too-slow-to-counter-inflation-ubs-chair-tells-nzz
“In a worst case scenario, the world economy could soon resemble the 1970s.”
I am afraid the situation will be a lot worse than this.
1970 BC but with spent fuel ponds
“Surging fuel and food prices send eurozone inflation to new high of 7.5%.
“Consumer prices in the eurozone rose by a record 7.5 per cent in March from a year ago, piling pressure on the European Central Bank to tighten its ultra-loose monetary policy faster than planned.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6fc23069-6184-4a29-9691-130c83d29349
“ECB expects to hike rates after ending bond buys in Q3: Schnabel…
“”The speed of normalisation … will depend on the economic fallout from the war, the severity of the inflation shock and its persistence,” Schnabel said.”
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ecb-expects-hike-rates-after-ending-bond-buys-q3-schnabel-2022-04-02/
“US Homebuyers have faced a tough choice during the pandemic: Swallow rapid price increases and forgo typical steps like house inspections, or risk getting left out of the real estate market. Those dynamics have caused some observers to question whether the U.S. is repeating the housing bubble of the early 2000s…
“The answer, warns the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, is that the property market is showing “signs of a brewing U.S. housing bubble.””
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/housing-bubble-2022-warning-federal-reserve/
“U.S. Housing Is A Dead Man Walking… To say that it is a sellers market is an understatement. Prices have been rising relentlessly.
“The rise in prices are so dramatic, in fact, that for the first time, the average increase in home value exceeded median U.S. income in 2021. If that isn’t moral hazard, I don’t know what is.”
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4498666-us-housing-is-a-dead-man-walking
“‘Payment shock’ awaits US home buyers as mortgage rates climb…
“Average interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the US swung to 4.42 per cent in the latest Freddie Mac weekly survey after hitting a record low of 2.65 per cent in January 2021. Such sharp moves in the market are rare.”
https://www.ft.com/content/fb242201-dcd5-4009-8fbe-1e998a67112a
“Get ready for even bigger rate hikes from the Fed.
“… the Federal Reserve is increasingly certain to raise interest rates in May by a half-point to halt inflation in its tracks.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/04/01/economy/federal-reserve-rate-hikes-inflation-jobs-report/index.html
These high home prices cannot be maintained, with rising interest rates.
I think this analysis is stretching it a bit.
This war is about one man. The little old man sat at the end of a loooooong table or hunkering down in his fuhrer bunker in the Urals.
He’s old, quite possibly very sick and obseesed about geopolitics and his place in history. He wants to rebuild the USSR. Not as a communist utopia but as a gangster state. A new fascist Russian empire. He hates NATO, he hates the West. He despises and fears open democracy and cannot tolerate it existing in the sister nation of Ukraine. That’s his motivation.
So much as depleting resources are concerned. Then having his hands on Europe’s gas taps gives him confidence as would controlling the breadbasket of Ukraine.
But in this, I think that’s as far as it goes.
Go back to watching cartoon network. You’ve strayed too far from home.
Oh really?
I’m only going by what Putin himself has told us. He’s given notice to the Poles, Baltics, Fins and Swedes about his plans.
Plans that he has been preparing since at least 2014. This isn’t a ‘special military operation’ that has been forced upon him by economic circumstances. No. He’s been planning it and laying the groundwork.
And when it’s come to it, it turns out he’s been woefully misinformed by subordinates too afraid to tell him the truth. The week long special operation is already a month long war and his conventional forces are performing terribly.
“First and foremost it is worth acknowledging that the demise of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,”
Vladolf Putin
This is all the motivation needed for a proud and loyal KGB man.
Need more context. When did he say that, to whom did he say that, what else did he say to explain his viewpoint. Also, why do you believe the information about bad advice is correct? Who was in the room with him that then leaked the inner communications of Putin and his strategists? Who is the source and what is his motivation for telling the press this information/misinformation. One example of a misalignment of your arguement. They have been planning a one week operation for over 7 years. Does that seem plausable to you?
He said as part of his state of the nation address back in 2005.
Western intelligence says Putin was so enraged about the wrong information he had been fed he sacked no fewer than 8 of his generals.
You can chose not to believe it if you like but western intelligence has so far proven to by very accurate in its predictions of the progress in this war.
but western intelligence has so far proven to by very accurate in its predictions of the progress in this war.
How do you know that?
The same mainstream media, government and western intelligence that told us Saddam had WMD worth starting a war over…yea right.
Your western intelligence will say what suits them best for their purposes. Take with a grain of salt.
If we still don’t know or not whether, or how, true the western Intel reports are, then I say it’s perfectly plausible that Vladolf lol has had to jettison some generals, and presumably for some sort of dereliction of duty. We have to remember that the military bureaucracy is not privy to the Elders’ Global Degrowth plan for keeping demand destruction well ahead of future energy supplies, so obviously these generals are as taken aback by this shitshow as everyone else, and that may affect their performance, especially if the special military operation is being carried out in such a way — an artificial way — so as to satisfy the ulterior motives to which the generals are not privy.
“Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart. Whoever wants it back has no brain.”
— Vladimir Putin
Aha, also no brain inside the skull on top of the trousers. Why i am not surprised?
I think that the collapse of the Soviet Union allowed the world economy to go forward for a long time, without exploiting Russian oil. This left more in the ground for later. This oil that Russia could extract later has been very important in staving off collapse, so far.
For sure. Russia’s post-peak strong production these last twenty years also clearly shows how much more effective global fascism is at resource extraction, which just lends more support for the Senecan Cliff outcome.
No underpants beneath the trousers. I was sure of that 🙂
Maybe Trousers is someone’s alter-ego posting nonsense just to amuse us? I for one am laughing! Now, come on, own up.
Yes, clowns are fun 🙂
Found it! This appears to me an excellent framework analyzing actual NNR positions of several nations’ self sufficiency in those resources. It is interesting to note rare earth meals do not present that big a problem relative to others.
https://undervaluedequity.com/increasing-global-non-renewable-natural-resource-scarcity-prelude-to-global-societal-collapse/
Cheater alert: Gold is one of the NNR which is/will be in short supply.
Use it as you will, I like the framework and what appears to be an excellent set of footnotes.
Warren had a spare $100B sitting around, purchased Occidental Petroleum. still has many billions sitting around. Denninger once referred to him as basically an old man has been. Well, the first hundred billion always is the hardest.
Personal experience: Al is mentioned as having scarcity issues about this time, bauxite is not scarce. Al is very expensive in metal markets, steel is not far behind. Building or rebuilding a steel bridge would cost a ton – forgive the double entendre.
Dennis L.
And it would be hard.
Thanks Dennis L – that’s a great summary of our predicament.
In the footnotes he writes: Peak NNR production (extraction) does not imply imminent “exhaustion”. At peak, approximately half of the ultimately recoverable resource still remains to be extracted. The post-peak half of the resource is simply increasingly more energy-intensive, resource-intensive, and financially expensive to extract than the pre-peak half.
That’s probably the first idea to impart to someone new to the subject of depletion. Unpacking that last sentence comprises much of what we focus upon here at OFW.
If you look at the most famous Conference at Solvay, with a bunch of greats in Physics,
There is exactly ONE American there,Irving Langmuir, from Brooklyn. (There were a few English sounding people there , but other than Langmuir, all of them were British.)
That was 1927. Less than 100 years ago.
That was how relevant USA was to the Civilization of world at that point of time.1 of 31. (Of course there were no nonwhites there, not even a Hindu.)
Some people say USA has the smartest population. But given that there was exactly one American out of 31 important physicists in there (and the fact that he was born in Brooklyn, which at that time was the first stop for immigrants, shows his parents, about whom we know little about, were probably not from USA) the ‘native’ pop of USA was probably not that smart.
The issue of the economy being a dissipative structure has few American authors. The article “Economy as a Dissipative Structure” was originally a paper presented by a Japanese author (Y. Shiozawa) at a conference in Japan in May, 1996.(http://www.shiozawa.net/english/EconomyAsADissipativeStructure1996.pdf
Francois Roddier, author of “Thermodynamique de l’évolution. Un essai de thermo-bio-sociologie” (2012), lives in France and writes mostly in French. He is about 84 years old. The book was translated into a book in English in 2020, (Kindle Edition only). https://www.amazon.com/Thermodynamics-evolution-Essay-François-Roddier-ebook/dp/B087M5ZG59
I have a picture of this conference. A tremendous gathering of physics great minds. All the greats are there…Planck, Rutherford, Einstein, Curie, Lorentz…One striking feature is the lone American is the only man present that 1) does not have any facial hair (beard or mustache) and 2) he is the only man not dressed in customary black suit and tie….he is wearing a kind of light grayish suit.The Europeans must have been amused. Shades of things to come….American culture would leave that of Europe.
Madam Curie is the only woman present. Even she is dressed in black.
kulm thanks for the elitist reflections
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He doesn’t think it is 1 or 5..I feel that incompetence/money grab is a more disheartening scenario than malice, but I guess as the saying goes: never assume malice where simple incompetence will suffice..
Why the full court press (mandates, etc) in the west for just incompetence, though? The west (US, Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand) consumes a lot of resources and the western empire is in decline so I would lean towards malice to push the west over the cliff..
1.) Sub-Disastrous Possibility. Vax-caused U.S. deaths (by end of 2025): 40,000 to 100,000.
2.) Mild Vax-Death Scenario. Vax-caused U.S. deaths (ditto): 100,000 to 500,000.
3.) Public Health Policy Disaster. Vax-caused U.S. deaths (ditto): 500,000 to 1,000,000. Includes some damage to overall fertility, or some signs that a significant portion of the vaxxed will prematurely die sometime in the post-2025 years.
4.) Catastrophe. Vax-caused U.S deaths (ditto): 1 to 5 million. Includes greater damage to fertility, and/or clearer signs that a significant portion of the vaxxed will prematurely die sometime in the post-2025 years.
5.) Mass Depopulation Event. The vaxxes function as medium-to-long-term poison of an unstoppable kind to more than a fourth of those who received them, and/or they shut-down fertility in similarly extensive ways.
Again, I am near-certain that first scenario is impossible, as I judge there to be firm evidence we have already exceeded 100,000 deaths.
https://pomocon.substack.com/p/out-of-denials-frying-pan-into-the
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“No one will win in the Russia-Ukraine conflict”
Anyone can define their criteria for winning, but I would say:
USA retaining Full Spectrum Dominance = USA winning
USA losing Full Spectrum Dominance = Russia winning
As for the world economy being worse off no matter the outcome of the conflict: who really knows how much energy is actually spent on maintaining Full Spectrum Dominance. Let’s say the 800 U.S. military bases around the world cease to exist, or fiat USD is no longer the world’s reserve currency. Would it really be detrimental to the world economy?
I think you are right about
My point is that regardless of how the outcome of the war, the total goods and services produced by the individual economies of the world is likely to be lower. World population is likely to trend lower as well. Per capita PPP GDP can be expected to trend lower in most countries.
In this sense, everyone, with the possible exception of Russia, Iran, Venezuela and Brazil, end up worse off.
Bummer, I am not sure of the Davos crowd, but to turn a phrase the exceptions are a small club and Davos doesn’t seem to be in it. Perhaps a reason for all the rage in Western press.
I like frameworks, “Hidden History” is about early twentieth century Britain, empire, etc. The press played significant role in that agenda which was WWI.
The book has a summary at the end of each chapter with historical names. I have trouble retaining all those as I read, so keeping a notepad and drawing diagrams connecting the players is helpful to me. It is very well footnoted as well; anyone ever check those footnotes? Tough to read everything.
Dennis L.
US did not have full spectrum dominance going into the war, in missiles, electronic warfare, ground troops, manufacturing and energy independence.
Yes, but we didn’t have the ’emperor is naked’ moment for everyone to see. And seeing is believing.
In war the one who loses less is the winner.
Inside a blog in Italy I found this about US biolabs in Ukraine:
It is a 2010 article, visible only with ‘archive’.
‘U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar applauded the opening of the Interim Central Reference Laboratory in Odessa, Ukraine, this week, announcing that it will be instrumental in researching dangerous pathogens used by bioterrorists.’ […]
‘The level-3 bio-safety lab, which is the first built under the expanded authority of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program, will be used to study anthrax, tularemia and Q fever as well as other dangerous pathogens.’ […]
‘“The continuing cooperation of Nunn-Lugar partners has improved safety for all people against weapons of mass destruction and potential terrorist use, in addition to advancements in the prevention of pandemics and public health consequences,” Lugar said.’ […]
‘Lugar and Obama also helped coordinate efforts between the U.S and Ukrainian researchers that year in an effort to study and help prevent avian flu.’
https://web.archive.org/web/20101120061506/http://www.bioprepwatch.com:80/news/213421-biolab-opens-in-ukraine
Source:
https://luogocomune.net/35-commenti-liberi/5974-commenti-liberi-2-apr-2022#comment-303856
Interesting! Senator Dick Lugar is a now-retired Republican senator from Indiana, who served as Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from January 3, 2003 to January 3, 2007. Lugar was preceded in this office by Joe Biden and was also succeeded by Biden in this office. The person who has this job clearly depends on which political party is in power.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Lugar
The Nunn of the “Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction program” is retired Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia. His political party was Democrat. WIth Ted Turner, he is co-founder and co-chair of an organization called NTI.org, which perhaps originally meant “Nuclear Terrorism Initiative.”
https://www.nti.org/about/people/sam-nunn/
This page about Sam Nunn describes his one of his legislative achievements as “the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction Program, which provided assistance for more than 20 years to Russia and the former Soviet republics for securing and destroying their excess nuclear, biological and chemical weapons.”
Part of this seems to have been the very successful program of the US buying unneeded nuclear weapons and processing the material in them so that it was suitable for powering nuclear power plants. A governmental site also says that the legislation also included biological weapons :
https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-the-nunn-lugar-cooperative-threat-reduction-program-2/
We can argue whether this effort made the biological weapon threat more or less, when the construction and upgrading of the sites was finished.
Thank you Gail.
I must say that after the start of the pandemic I’ve learnt that there are a lot of biolabs around the world.
It is something I was not aware and it definetely something was not discussed at all by MSM during these years.
I also would like to add that it is more scary than nuclear waepons for me.
Because in order to start a war with nuclear weapons there are various levels to overtake and it is difficult that a single person could start a war, while, on the contrary, with biolabs presence around the world, it is enought a little mistake or a very crazy person to start a disaster.
Right! The biolabs are a disaster waiting to happen.
A single person can have disproportionate influence, in designing these bioweapons and in releasing them.
Ralph Baric seems to have played a disproportionate role in both the Wuhan version of COVID and the Omicron version of the virus, for example.
https://igorchudov.substack.com/p/did-ralph-baric-of-unc-design-omicron
https://youtu.be/ppeOT8YDRWU
I don’t get the idea that “oil prices get too low for producers”. I’d understand that is the case as long as oil companies are forced to sell oil on the “free” oil markets. These “free” markets need “US-interventions”. In the moment the USA looses its dominant role, resources will be in the hand of the respective states only. National economies can decide to invest their productivity “dividend” into education, infrastructure or extracting resources. Countries owning resources have the advantage of owning resources opposite to countries not owning resources. There might be a need to attract knowhow and finance investments. But countries with resources have an attraction advantage in the moment world markets fail.
Let’s assume Germany could not satisfy its demand by solar and oil from Egypt and Erdogan and would be cut off from Putins deliveries. Putin could now attract high potentials to easily build up a simplistic industry to satisfy basic needs, while Germany has capacities for building sophisticated electric sports cars. Putin can now satisfy the populace with potatoes and simple military vehicles, while Germany can provide unuseful sports cars and gender equality rules (I am not at all against gender equality but dont consider its eternal implementation the main purpose of a state). While Germany would slide now into a failed state scenario, Russia could easily “take over” what they need from Germany, because they have fuel to drive their military what Germany has not. I know it is an oversimplistic example, just to show the advantage of countries with resources. In the moment it becomes a live-or-die situation the resource countries can invest any needs into extraction because it pays off.
If countries need supplies they cant produce themselves like Venezuela in need of semi-conductors they could trade their resources.
What we will see is that the resource countries will squeeze-out those that can’t pay and use their declining resources to create growing benefits for their population.
We will see a simplistic technology easy to produce and maintain opposite to highly complex technologies where the car controls if the door is closed or not. Like this they can provide potatoes and military security.
The non-resource countries will provide political correctness and mandatory vacvinations instead and fight with turmoil and rapidly declining populations.
I think this must be clear to everybody in the governments (though I doubt that is the case in Germany). It means there must be the intention of the West to get direct access to the resources.
If the West manages to isolate the countries around the Caspian sea from Putin and get access to their resources via puppet regimen the strategical disadvantage could be turned into an advantage, because the West already has knowhow, machinery and financial power that Putin has to build up. As can be seen in Venezuela.
So in my mind the Ukraine conflict is mainly about the dominance in the Black Sea as much as in Georgia and Aserbaidzan.
My grandma has a soviet built Lada (car) from 1979. The car is in top notxh condition, it never needed more than oil change. The power if simple tech solution. On the other hand, my 1st car (WV Passat from 2001) is already non-operational and beyond repairment. The Lada is like 10x time cheaper from The WV Passat. Isn’t that funny?
I have a Lada.
I might buy a new Lada Niva. Superb capabilities and the price tag is ridiculously low – about 9k euros for the brand new model Bronto.
Geno,
Is the Niva still relatively low tech as compared to Japanese/US/Euro motors?
I would like something new but low tech as possible….I prefer manual controls…I don’t need sat nav or parking sensors or even electric windows…..
I think the Bronto model is somewhere in the middle. I might drop to a dealership whixh sells them and inquire assl info next week. If i don’t forget i will drop the info here.
Cheers Geno
Not available in NZ – would buy one just to support the Russians if they were..
Maybe get a plate Putin Rocks….
What milage does it get? km/liter?
12l per 100 km
https://www.auto-data.net/en/lada-niva-bronto-1.7i-83hp-4×4-35421
Jan,
The fundamental problem is that petroleum products production isn’t paying for itself. We can know that because if it WAS paying for itself the industrial world wouldn’t be buried under a mountain of debt! And remember that what’s coming out of the ground now isn’t what came out of the ground 70years ago.
When the debt ponzi implodes petroleum products will be much less affordable, even for current exporters, and even after they’ve stripped down to a barebones economy. And all the oil infrastructure is geared for present demand.
With every post of Gail (excellent post, BTW), I will ask myself “Are things getting better or worse?”
If you keep track of Harry’s news on Sri Lanka, you can see the worsening trend from not sufficient reserves to now, 10-hour blackout per day. That is just between 2 of Gail’s posts (around 50 days apart)
Pakistan is also going down the drain now
As a mental exercise (which I know those who are taking 4 shots, wearing masks and stood by UKR are not doing) I do regularly to keep my brain sharp, I see there are no solutions to Sri Lanka and now Pakistan. In fact, it is a downward spiral, positive feedback with negative consequences. Without diesel, food cannot transported, fishing boats cannot go out, no electricity means supply chain disrupted and less exports means less money coming and less money coming in means no money to buy diesel. I see no solution to this predicament for the small island with a population of 22m. At what point of time will the people start to starve and will they take boats to India? How will India react if hundreds or thousands of boats arrive from Sri Lanka? It is a big population of 20m and there is no way that this population can escape to another country. The airports can only handle so many flights and the ultra-rich are probably out of the country by now. The middle class has nowhere to go. The rich (not ultra rich) are trying to leave but the airport is the choke point.
Remember that it is only 9-meals to anarchy. Will we see one soon in Sri Lanka?
Coming to Pakistan. Same situation as Sri Lanka. Huge population. Mostly desert. At what point of time, do they start to starve and move to India? What will India do with these huge masses of people coming in? Shoot?
This is really getting real.
Parsing through Harry’s news, I realize that it is not getting any better. It is only getting worse with every single thing that can go wrong, will go wrong. See here https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/bunker-contamination-crisis-hits-singapore-ships-hit-blackouts Ships’ engine burned out due to bad fuel causing more supply chain issues.
At this point of time, I fail to see how things will turn out for the better. Unlike in 2010 or 2015 where I can still see some form of future, I see only Seneca cliff. Like I have mentioned in previous comments, the drop if the Y-axis of the Seneca cliff is huge relative to the X-axis (time), i.e. a short period time where large swings of “events” happening. Welcome to the Seneca cliff.
I just don’t know how big the drop is and how long it will take.
Will the West back down from confronting Russia? Will Russia buckle? Will the economic issues worldwide (including China) be resolved? Will inflation go away? Will supply chain issues be resolved? Will shortages go away? All “no” perhaps.
How about the COVID and vaccine issues? How serious will it get? How about our “growth only” economy react to all these issues? We are not in the “no growth” era. We are in the era of shrinkage and our debt-based economy cannot function at all.
Have a drink. Cheers.
For all these struggling countries, there is a solution. IMF. That’s the plan for world control. The hard part is population control. Can’t have too many people for the limited world resources, so some must die. If too many die, the country reverts to self sustaining and no longer requires outside help.
Sorry to inform you but this is an extinction event.
After all the species we have terminated it’s about time we get ours
Wouldn’t it be fitting if Sri Lanka was left to fend for itself – no aid — and any boat leaving was sunk by the Indian navy.
We use the island as an experiment to see what happens when BAU implodes — would the people gather round with tambourines and sing Koombaya … or would they rip each others faces off, rape everything that moves and eat children.
I betcha if this experiment was allowed to happen and we could get video of what was happening in SL… there would few people dissing the CEP…
We NEED the CEP.
A simple die off of 14 million would allow 7 million in Sri Lanka to feed themselves.
“Albania is planning a “new Hoover Dam” to aid its ambitions of energy self-sufficiency, as Europe battles with crippling price rises pushed higher by the war in Ukraine.
“Preparatory work is underway for the Skavica Dam on the Drin River, estimated to cost about half a billion euros over five years of construction. It aims to make Albania’s hydroelectric power system less reliant on the weather.
“Albania, one of Europe’s poorest countries, has been rocked by mass protests over the huge increase in the cost-of-living since the war in Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow. It faces food shortages, risks blackouts and has scheduled power cuts in a bid to save costs.”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/04/01/albania-plans-new-hoover-dam-turn-russian-gas/
who pays for it? EU? UN? Albania??
The new dam is expected to take five years. It may displace farmers too. It doesn’t solve today’s problems.
hahahahahahaahaha… more boosters? why not…
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F51e99d6b-6f16-4d24-a01c-fefca96aa9b4_680x543.jpeg
Keep in mind those survival rates are for “when left untreated”.
https://t.me/robinmg/18019
Things that make you go hmmmmm
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd03364eb-7b34-4dcb-aacd-4c758e006ad5_1966x997.jpeg
https://coachsalm.substack.com/p/a-head-in-the-sand-approach-to-a?s=r
Oh hang on .. it gets more exciting for the CovIDIOT MOREONS
6th shot will be necessary hahahahahahaha you stooopid f789ing dunces… take MORE
https://t.me/VigilantFox/3719
FIVE SHOTS hahahahahahaahahahahahahaha
https://t.me/VigilantFox/3718
hahahahahahaaha
https://coachsalm.substack.com/p/a-head-in-the-sand-approach-to-a?s=r
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F24ce5290-6740-4419-b643-8129392142b9_1936x1015.jpeg
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F15f62bda-5511-489f-a5d1-1a1b5206d9cb_924x441.png
Pandemic of the Vaccinated
Raw numbers from the UK
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/pandemic-of-the-vaccinated
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_webp,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fdf86a9fc-0969-4cbf-9feb-d3ff40c46277_477x468.png
ooooooohhhh Eeeeeeeeee!
Load the missiles… prepare to exterminate
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/34257
Here be human https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/34252
https://www.wbng.com/2022/03/28/former-employee-state-mental-health-office-charged-after-video-child-abuse-surfaces/
https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/34238
Napoleon “History is a set of lies, agreed upon.”
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fec2940d4-b406-4695-aec9-a8f3f03231b5_1952x1754.png
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F5e451bd9-87b1-4389-92c2-60f40b8bed1a_354x450.png
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0a167677-224c-4382-bba0-874bd01cd25f_992x1164.png
while this article may be focused too much on gold, it does give an interesting perspective on what is becoming a new financial arrangement between the values of the USD and the Ruble and commodity prices.
https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/russian-ruble-relaunched-linked-to-gold-and-commodities-rt-com-q-and-a/
conclusion:
“The Bank of Russia’s move to link the ruble to gold and link commodity payments to the ruble is a paradigm shift that the western media has not really yet been grasped. As the dominos fall, these events could reverberate in different ways. Increased demand for physical gold. Blowups in the paper gold markets. A revalued gold price. A shift away from the US dollar. Increased bilateral trade in commodities among non-Western counties in currencies other than the US dollar.”
paradigm shift: fall of the USD, rise of the Ruble.
Two thoughts: one, I think the Russians want to re-absorb rubles denominated assets now in the hostile countries. Then they will tweak the rules again. Two, this is also making Moscow a much higher profile financial market. It can’t be long before they start taking away the money laundering business from London.
We will have to wait and see what happens. The Ruble may very well come out better and the US $ worse.
“Ukraine War, Start to Finish, Who’ll Win? Why and When? – Interview with Scott Ritter”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EFpKmbjhuk0
A very odd title, because the questions “Ukraine War, Start to Finish, Who’ll Win? Why and When?” are actually not discussed.
Outstanding interview of Scott Ritter by Gerald Celente. The best interview I have watched in a long time. Almost one hour long, but worth watching all.
Thanks!
Came across a post from 2021, I keep paper copies of interesting ideas, website is gone now.
Chris Clugston, a Google search reveals an interesting biography, has a couple of books on Amazon.
His paper was on NNR Scarcity, dated to about this time. Good read, he has all/most of the NNR documented in a easily presented way with very extensive footnotes. I don’t have the time to search, but the website undervaluedequity.com was one original source, the site wakeupamerika.com goes to nothing of interest now.
Dennis L.