The World Economy Is Becoming Unglued; Models Miss Real-World Behavior

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A common belief is that if the world does not have adequate energy, the result will be high prices. These high prices will allow more fossil fuels to be extracted or will allow renewables to substitute for fossil fuels.

In my view, the real issue is quite different: Inadequate energy supply of the types the economy requires can be expected to affect the economy in a way that causes it to become “unglued.” The economy will gradually fall apart as infighting becomes more of a problem. Goods won’t necessarily be high-priced; many simply won’t be available at any price. Political parties will fragment. Conflict within countries, such as the recent Wagner conflict with the military leadership in Russia, will become more common.

It has become fashionable to use models to predict the future, but simple models do not consider real-world dynamics. They don’t consider the importance of already existing infrastructure and the types of energy products this infrastructure requires. They don’t consider the importance of continuing food production. They don’t consider the dynamics of “not enough goods and services to go around.”

In this post, I will look at some pieces of evidence that suggest we should expect the world economy to become unglued as limits are hit. A corollary is that we cannot expect a transition to a world powered by renewables to work.

[1] It is easy to show that the energy supplies of a finite world will eventually fall short.

Anyone can model the energy supplies of a finite world as a bucket of sand and a scooper. If the scooper is used to remove the sand from the bucket, it will eventually become empty. If we start with a larger bucket of sand, perhaps the process can be delayed. Or, if we use a smaller scooper, the process will be delayed. But the result will be the same.

Back in 1957, Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover of the US Navy gave a speech in which he said,

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account.

In this speech, Rickover pointed out the importance of fossil fuels to maintain our standard of living and to win wars. It was clear to the military that fossil fuel energy supplies were tremendously important in preventing future problems for the economy.

[2] History shows that economies tend to grow and eventually collapse.

Economies tend to operate in cycles, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1. My chart of the findings of Peter Turchin and Surgey Nefedov in their 2009 book, Secular Cycles.

The eight economies analyzed by Turchin and Nefedov moved into a new area or acquired a new energy resource. These economies tended to grow for a long periods, well over 100 years, until the populations hit the carrying capacity of the available resources. These economies were able to work around these resource limits during a period of Stagflation, which typically lasted about 50 to 60 years. Eventually, the problems became too great to be overcome. A Crisis Period of falling population and GDP, lasting 20 to 50 years, typically ensued.

[3] The world economy today seems to be following a similar cycle based on its use of fossil fuels. In fact, we seem to be in the Crisis Period of such a cycle.

Today’s fossil fuel-based world economy started growing at varying times, in various places around the world, becoming well established by the early 1800s. It seems to have hit a Stagflation Period between 1970 and 1980. Recent patterns in oil supply per capita, interest rates, and debt levels suggest to me that the world economy has entered the Crisis Period of the current cycle.

To me, oil supply, particularly crude oil supply, is exceptionally important in keeping the economy growing because it is heavily used in producing the food supply and transporting it to market. In fact, it is heavily used in transportation of all kinds. We can see what is going wrong by looking at the trend in crude oil per capita (blue line on Figure 2).

Figure 2. World oil supply per capita based on data of the US Energy Information Administration.

On Figure 2, a line is drawn at 2005, when many people believe that peak “conventional” oil was reached. The line at 2009 points out the long-term slide in oil consumption per capita between 2005 and 2009, related at least in part to the Great Recession of 2008-2009. There was another steep drop in crude oil per capita in 2020, and this drop has not been made up. Cutbacks in drilling and low oil prices suggest that per capita consumption may never recover to the 2018 level.

US interest rates over time indicate a clear up and down pattern, with increases to 1981, and mostly decreases since then (Figure 3). Raising interest rates is like putting brakes on the economy because it makes monthly payments on loans higher. Lowering interest rates is like pressing on the accelerator.

Figure 3. Interest rates of 3-month Treasury Bills, 10-year Treasury Securities, and 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgages, based on information of the Federal Reserve of Saint Louis.

The US was in a Stagflation Period after 1980. Lower interest rates helped push the economy along, at least until they could go no lower. The first place falling interest rates stalled was in 2008, when they hit zero for the shortest-term debt. About the beginning of 2021, interest rates started to rise, to try to stop inflation.

At the same time, the US’s ability to add to debt, except US government debt, seems to have stalled about 2008 and again in 2021.

Figure 4. US ratios of debt to GDP by sector based on data from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis database. Amounts for total debt and for Households (which includes not-for-profits, such as churches), Business Non-Financial, and Federal Government are from this database. Financial+ is calculated by subtraction.

The combination of Figures 2, 3, and 4 suggests that the world economy has been on shaky ground since 2008. The US economy has been operating with incredibly low interest rates. If the world loses the ability to hide energy problems behind ever-lower interest and ever-higher debt, (particularly government debt), many parts of the economy could start coming apart.

[4] The world’s total energy supply must increase at least as fast as population to keep the economy growing and away from collapse.

A couple of years ago, I did an analysis of the growth in energy consumption compared to the growth of population over the period 1820 to 2020. I found that when energy consumption was rising faster than population, there tended to be a rise in standards of living. When energy consumption grew only as fast as population, problematic things (such as wars and governmental collapses) tended to happen (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Chart by Gail Tverberg using data from several sources, in energy data from Vaclav Smil’s estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent.

On Figure 5, the sum of red and blue areas represents world energy consumption growth by 10-year periods. The blue areas represent population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in standards of living. When growth in energy consumption was inadequate, wars tended to take place, and the collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union took place.

We are now at a point where energy consumption may decrease dramatically in future years, especially if we attempt to convert to a system based on intermittent wind and solar. The drop in energy consumption, relative to population, would likely be far worse than any situation we have experienced in the past. Besides being inadequate in quantity, wind and solar are not adapted to handling our most basic need, which is for providing the inputs farmers require to provide us with food.

[5] A key to understanding the role of fuels of the right kinds is understanding the physics-based way that the economy operates.

The economy is very much like the human body. The operation of both is governed by the laws of physics. The human body needs to consume a variety of food products. Alternative foods can be substituted, but the overall quantity of food needs to be sufficient for the population and their level of activity.

Likewise, the world economy requires a variety of energy products to operate. Substitutions can sometimes be made, but the overall quantity must be sufficient to support the activities of the economy, including providing adequate food and water for the population and ways to transport these items to the population that needs them.

There are other similarities, as well. Humans start out as small babies. Eventually, humans grow old. In the years leading up to death, they often become frail. The cycle downward at the end of an economy’s life is somewhat similar. Economies, even the world economy, cannot last forever.

[6] To build and maintain cities, it is necessary for energy to be easily storable.

In his book, Against the Grain, the American political scientist James C. Scott points out that in order for governments to grow and to provide infrastructure for cities, it is necessary to tax farmers. Grain is ideal for this; taxing a root crop such as sweet potatoes does not work well. Root crops are hard to see when they are growing. They also are harder to transport and store.

Clearly, farmers must have a surplus of storable energy to make cities and good roads work. They must be able to produce this surplus energy in a sufficiently profitable way that governments can tax it and use the proceeds for the benefit of the overall population.

I think that excess storable energy is the true “net energy” that some authors write about. A city cannot operate only when the wind happens to be blowing or the sun happens to be shining. Everyone would clog the roads at the same time, trying to get to a job that might last only a few minutes. Even today, if a city is to have electricity when it is needed, even in winter, there needs to be a storable supply of fuel to provide this electricity. Batteries cannot provide this level of storage; we would run out of materials.

Cities are essential for the sharing of ideas and for the operation of major industries.

We can have an economy of hunter-gatherers running on intermittent energy alone. We might even be able to have cities based on stored grain, as civilizations did in the past. But the population would need to be far less than today’s 8 billion.

[7] Both energy density and storability are needed if the world’s population is to be fed.

A farmer needs machines that are not so heavy that they will sink into the soil. Soil compaction is also an issue with heavy machines. If soil is compacted, water cannot make its way through the pores properly. Rain will tend to run off, causing erosion, instead of sinking in, to provide longer-term benefit. Soil compaction is already a problem with today’s large machinery. Less dense fuels, or the use of heavy battery packs, will make the problem even worse.

Energy dense fuel is also needed for the transportation of food. In fact, energy dense fuel, such as diesel or jet fuel, is used in nearly all of today’s very large vehicles. Heavy vehicles operated in situations that require very large bursts of power especially need energy dense fuel. Examples include semi-trailer trucks, buses that drive up steep hills, airplanes that need bursts of power to take off, agricultural vehicles that might get stuck in mud, and vehicles used in construction and road making.

Trains operating on smooth tracks, with limited gradients, don’t need the same bursts of power, so they are sometimes electric. Boats don’t generally need large bursts of power, but boats generally use an energy-dense liquid fuel to propel them on long journeys. Storing enough electricity in batteries to power such long journeys would be impractical.

The recently published 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy (now produced by the Energy Institute, instead of BP) shows that the heavier, more energy-dense types of burnable oil have been falling as a share of the world’s oil supply.

Figure 6. Chart shows that more energy dense types of oil products (sum of diesel, jet fuel/kerosene, and fuel oil) have been falling relative to the world supply of diesel or total liquids oil. All amounts used in the calculation are from EI’s 2023 Statistical Review of World Energy, except for world crude oil for 1980 through 1999, which is based on EIA data.

These heavier grades are the ones best suited to essential future energy needs, and they seem to be depleting the most quickly.

[8] Added complexity is deceptive. It looks like it can save energy, but it tends to increase wage disparities and makes the overall system more fragile.

Added complexity for an economy includes changes such as more built infrastructure (roads, dams, bridges), larger businesses, more specialization of workers, more international trade, and longer supply chains. It is easy for modelers to assume that these changes have no energy cost, but in reality, they do.

Changes enabling growing complexity go hand in hand with more debt and more financialization of the economy. With greater complexity, owners and managers of businesses, as well as highly trained workers, tend to receive a disproportionate share of the wealth. This means that little is left over for non-elite workers. These wage and wealth disparities lead to the unhappiness of the lower-paid workers. This is especially the case during economic downturns.

With added complexity, the system becomes more fragile. Supply lines become longer, so missing parts are more likely to be a problem. Repair parts for wind turbines may become unavailable, for example. The US grid would need massive improvements to handle the proposed increase in wind and solar power, and the demands of EVs. All of the simultaneous commodity demands may become too much for suppliers to meet.

Even changes in financial systems could be a serious problem. With the conflict over the SWIFT money processing system, will one group of countries start using a different financial exchange program, such as Iran’s financial messaging system SEPAM? Will Western nations find themselves cut off from purchasing inputs they depend upon?

[9] Modeling underlying the analysis for the 1972 book The Limits to Growth shows that (total materials required for reinvestment each year) as a percentage of (total economic output) is an important limit.

Somehow, the economy must provide enough goods and services both for the needs of the current members of the economy and for the investment needed to keep the system operating in the future.

The economy is squeezed in three different ways:

  • The population keeps growing, and each person needs food, clothing, and a variety of services.
  • Resources of all kinds (not just fossil fuels) become more difficult to extract due to depletion. More of the output of the economy needs to go into investment, just to get the same quantity of copper, lithium, nickel, and minerals of all kinds, including fossil fuels.
  • With the rising population and increasing resource use, pollution becomes a bigger problem. Mitigation efforts lead to a need to use more resources to keep pollution away from humans.

To keep the system operating, we cannot spend very much on the combination of resource extraction and pollution control, or there will not be enough resources left to meet the needs of the growing population.

This combination limit tells me is that a rapid transition of any kind toward any new energy type, even toward the use of “green energy,” is not likely to work well. There is a reason why past transitions to new energy types have been very slow. The economy cannot invest enough without starving other parts of the economy.

Some people have interpreted this combination limit as an Energy Return on Energy Investment limit of perhaps 10:1, but it seems to me to be a far more serious limit than this. At a minimum, all types of resources, including those for backup batteries and additional long distance transmission lines, must be included in any calculation for renewables.

Also, to keep the system operating, any shift from fossil fuels to renewables cannot have a delayed payback period, relative to fossil fuels, or the huge up-front investment will become a problem. The up-front investment in renewables will be higher, but there will not be enough output to support the economy. The “real” economy does not operate on an accrual basis; people need to eat every day, and aluminum smelters expect to operate every day.

As I mentioned previously, renewables aren’t really helpful for growing food. Nor are reliable enough to power aluminum smelters, so there is a real issue as to whether they should even be considered as possible substitutes for fossil fuels. They are simply add-ons to the fossil fuel system to avoid having to talk about our fossil fuel supply problems. Reframing the issue as “wanting to move away from fossil fuels to prevent climate change” saves having to talk about the inadequate fossil fuel supply problem, and the fact that fossil fuels are what make today’s lifestyle possible.

[10] Energy prices must be both high enough for producers to make a profit and low enough for consumers to afford goods made with these energy products.

It is the conflict between the needs of consumers and producers that tends to bring fossil fuel energy production down. Consumers say, “We can’t stand oil (or natural gas or electricity) prices this high, and demand that politicians hold prices down.” In fact, this just recently happened in Australia with natural gas prices. Without an adequate profit motive, drillers cut back on drilling and production falls.

Renewables have gotten mandates and subsidies, especially the subsidy of going first on the electric grid. It is these subsidies and mandates that have made investments in wind turbines and solar panels attractive. Once governments have more financial problems and these subsidies disappear, owners are likely to stop making repairs to these systems. They will not last longer than fossil fuel-based systems, in my opinion.

[11] Conclusion: We are in uncharted territory.

I mentioned that the Great Recession of 2008-2009 seemed to mark the beginning of the downturn. More financial problems are no doubt ahead, but other kinds of strange events may also occur.

It seems possible that Covid, its vaccines, and the restrictions in 2020 may even have been part of the “ungluing.” Self-organizing physics-based systems act strangely. World oil supply started declining in 2019. Militaries around the world have been concerned about fossil fuel limits for many years. Militaries have also been deeply involved with germ warfare. Economies around the world were experiencing financial problems. The shutdowns conveniently reduced demand and prices for oil, while giving economies around the world an excuse for more debt. The problems were kicked down the road until 2022 and 2023, when they reappeared as inflation.

We can’t know what lies ahead, but it may be very strange, indeed.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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3,059 Responses to The World Economy Is Becoming Unglued; Models Miss Real-World Behavior

  1. Ed says:

    The video on electric makes the point that you get blackout when peak load is above dispatch-able generation. I would love to see a list of the nations of the world ranked by percentage of peak load covered by dispatch-able generation.

    • I think you need to put stable (nuclear) with dispatchable.

      There is also an issue of exports. A country exporting hydroelectric (like Norway) can have very unstable supply, but if exports are a large enough share of the total, it is quite possible to cut off the electricity that is exported.

  2. Ed says:

    Why aren’t women being drafted by Ukraine? Isn’t it required by NATO woke military standards? How can we send another penny until 50% of the soldiers on the front line are women?

    • Ed says:

      Do gay, lesbian, and trans Ukrainians feel safe in the Ukrainian military? If not can we justify sending even one penny more until the appropriate sensitivity classes are given to all Ukrainian military personnel and the unredeemable are discharged?

    • JMS says:

      I vote against. Ukrainian women are generally so beautiful that it would be an insane waste of resources to send them to fight, even worse in a war lost from the outset. I’m pretty sure they can play far more cheerful and useful parts than pretty corpses.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        norm is so keen on replacing SSS with a Ukey hottie… he’d even take a dead one… keep her in his fridge … between adventures.

        hahahaha norm >>> discuss.

        mike… console norm… he is in tears

      • Cromagnon says:

        You have not matured beyond your biology then.

        If the west had thrown all its most beautiful women into the meat grinder of conflict in the name of equality and empowerment our society would have been stabilized 40 years ago.
        Elite parasites have used weak female thinking to tear our cultures apart.

        • Kowalainen says:

          I tend to agree, in with the self entitled hotties to the conflict zone. A place where death is better than the “alternative”.

          Want to Live Large? Yes of course you do honey! Excellent; onwards to the meat grinder princess. And don’t forget your YsL jank and paraphernalia.

          Why should wars be select for the Tryhards when there’s plenty of MOARons?

  3. Ed says:

    Both Russia and US know that nuclear war is suicide. But drone wars are new and profitable for the war companies.

    WWI had chemical weapons, machine guns, tanks, and some limited airplanes.

    WWII had mass production everything, tanks, planes, bombs.

    WWIII can use starlink, robots, drones, AI controllers without the need to resort to nuclear weapons. It can be fought on the front line and in the heartland. It can be as discriminating as person by person kill lists with facial recog. The CEO of war company x can be targeted in her own bedroom, or at the pool with her kids. All the politicians will need to bunker down against the rain of splatter bots and stealth (as in sneaky) drones.

    It will be a low energy war. Fly to where the enemy 304th in charge general lives and perch on tree branch, wait. When the target is seen shoot.

    • You might be right. Every military group in the world knows the importance of energy resources. They will use any low energy approach they can think of. That is why they have been working on germ warfare–it at least seems to require less energy for production.

      I expect also war with respect to information security. We will have problems with our systems being hacked.

      And lack of the many exports we have come to depend upon. If there isn’t enough to go around, they will keep it for themselves.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I betcha The Club was formed around the time everyone got nukes…

      They realized war was no longer viable on a grand scale — and they realized the Elders were ascendant … so why not just form a big club with the Elders running it …

      F789 Yeah. It’s awesome if you are in the Club.

      UKEY war >> fake.

  4. Ed says:

    There is a war drone company that is selling into West Point, US army college. They are advertising for people to be instructor for their company for the pointers.

    I now realize there is no place for humans on a battlefield full of robots, drones, AI. NONE. The idea of some poor woman popping up from the trench with a rifle, searching around for a target , aiming and squeezing off a shot is over. Woman places optics package with camera up top, woman places rifle with servo motor up top. AI package in trench finds targets, selects targets, fires rifle, instructs woman when it is time to relocate the packages. One woman can deploy several such kits to deal with a mass charge.

    In fact the kits can be deployed by drone without the need to endanger our woman and men our war fighters.

    • Jan says:

      What we are hearing here is, that Ukrainian men are forced with illegal and illegitimate means to join the army and die just hours later at the front line.

  5. Fast Eddy says:

    Mike is very stubborn – I have explained why Depop is a no go … but he insists

    I think I even know how they’ll accomplish this depopulation mission: repeated, coerced injection of mRNA-based material, which you’ll be told are “vaccines”, against novel “respiratory virus pandemics”.

    You’ll not be able to decline these injections. They’re your passport to just some of the freedoms you used to have as of birthright, in a democracy.
    That’s what this is all about.

    Almost everything is to do with this objective, since they began lying all the time about COVID in early 2020.

    Most people don’t know anything about this, not even those executing the practical guides. If anything, they’ll be told this is necessary to “save the Earth” from human ravages. I’m afraid that’s also total lies and by the same perpetrators.
    Best wishes
    Mike

    👉 https://t.me/DrMikeYeadon

  6. Fast Eddy says:

    Very very very funny https://www.bitchute.com/video/MDkup2U4pVaE/

  7. I AM THE MOB says:

    All over 40s in England to be sent health blood test for them to take at home

    https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/uk-news/over-40s-england-sent-health-27237005

    • How about just telling everyone to eat a better diet and exercise. Wouldn’t that produce pretty close to the same result as picking out the rather large share that have high blood pressure and high cholesterol?

    • Ed says:

      What are they testing for? Couldn’t a bare foot AI doctor visit the old folks and administer the test. It would also be able to sample their speech and walk both of which with AI reveal many diseases including mental health diseases.

      Maybe the AI could setup walking groups separated by about one mile that could once a day walk to see there other half. For the exercise.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Digital NHS health checks will be launched next spring for people aged 40 to 74 and will include an online health questionnaire.

      They already consider you dead norm.. or at least not worth trying to help.

      But they do want you to take the free Booster Shot

    • Jane says:

      Don’t touch it!!

    • Kowalainen says:

      DNA sequencing and association with vax and social credit score. Classic eugenics. As Gail states, just chuck in the oats and turn the cranks. Problem solved. But that sort of requires effort, embracing the suck.

  8. Mirror on the wall says:

    That is what happens if you try to use tanks without air cover: the side with air cover just blows them up like it is a video game.

    If NATO has any more tanks left in Europe then it needs to send them to UKR now so that Russia can blow them up and be done with it.

    Russia jokes that it aimed to de-militarize UKR and that it ended up de-militarizing NATO.

    The Biden camp have not got a clue they are doing, and the Pentagon must be aghast at what has happened in UKR.

    USA is now reduced to sending cluster bombs to UKR because it has run out of ammo to send.

    This is how USA hegemony ends: with the Biden camp.

    Ukrainian Troops Walk Into Russian Mine Trap; Western Vehicles Blown Up On Cam | Watch

    Russian defence ministry released three videos that show how Russian forces destroyed Ukraine’s armoured vehicles. Russian armed forces blew up a Ukraine convoy that was advancing towards the Moscow frontline. According to the ministry, the army destroyed five Ukrainian vehicles.

    • That sounds like a reasonable joke:
      “Russia jokes that it aimed to de-militarize UKR and that it ended up de-militarizing NATO.”

    • Kowalainen says:

      Only one person running? If what wasn’t faked or remotely operated ‘convoy’ I’d be surprised.

      Who the F stays in the vehicle when a tank get blown up in front? You’d see doors and hatches flung open and people dispersing in all directions.

      It’s all about discarding old and obsolete jank.

  9. Ed says:

    Why wont the serious space aliens come visit me? I gets these lame space anthropologist. All they want to talk about are human belief systems and customs. They refuse to tell me how to use high tech to make cheap abundant energy. They refuse to tell me anything useful. But they do bring delicious cookies to have with our coffee. I certainly can not fault their manners.

    • Xabier says:

      Do you think they will ‘go native’, Ed? Perhaps you could offer them a young person from your clan as a spouse to help them integrate and really get inside Earth culture?

      • Ed says:

        Now that is thinking outside the box. I think it could work. I will have to mull over the candidates.

  10. Jan says:

    Is WSJ expecting a paradigm change?

    “The White House Tells the Truth About Climate Change
    A report reveals that global temperature changes barely affects economic growth.”
    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-white-house-tells-the-truth-about-climate-change-global-warming-gdp-temperature-economic-growth-52aaf575

    • This is a link to the actual report produced, which is not behind a paywall.

      https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/CEA-OMB-White-Paper.pdf

      In the summary, it says:

      Climate change—and the energy-system transition required to address it—present a number of risks relevant to the President’s Budget, including effects operating via impacts to future GDP growth and other economic outcomes. Under Section 6(a) of the EO, the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), Office of Management and Budget (OMB), and an Inter-Agency Technical Working Group (ITWG) have been working to develop methodologies to assess these risks and integrate them into the macroeconomic forecast of the President’s Budget. This White Paper describes how physical climate risks have been assessed for the Long-Term Budget Outlook for Fiscal Year 2024 and considerations for more fully integrating climate risks into future Budget forecasts. This integration will require a triangulation that accounts for 1) requirements and constraints of the current macroeconomic forecasting performed by Treasury, CEA, and OMB; 2) the ways in which climate change and the energy transition could affect macroeconomic outcomes; and 3) the ability of existing climate– energy–economy models to capture these effects. The second part of this paper describes these three considerations in more detail and develops a two-track plan to quantify the macroeconomic risks of climate change in future Budgets.

      I don’t think I really believe these models with respect to the energy transition.

    • Jane says:

      ” A report reveals that global temperature changes barely affects economic growth.””

      I haven’t read the report.
      But I can assert with confidence that measures being taken supposedly to respond to “climate change” certainly are affecting economic growth. F’rinstance, in Germany . . . .

  11. Jan says:

    It becomes apparent, that the USA might deny any further support of the Ukraine war and could withdraw like from Syria and Afghanistan leaving burnt earth only.

    “Don’t Let Ukraine Join NATO. The Costs of Expanding the Alliance Outweigh the Benefits. By Justin Logan and Joshua Shifrinson July 7, 2023” https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/dont-let-ukraine-join-nato

    In case of such a decision there would be the following consequences:

    1. Nato might fall to pieces (Members involved in the destruction of Northstream?)
    2. EU might fall to pieces (according to Orban Leyen has illegally given 70.000 mio EUR to Ukraine as a present – the budget of the EU for 3 years. EU is bankrupt now if the states do not assume those debts)
    3. As a result of the sanctions the European energy suppy has come heavily under pressure
    4. As a consequence of the energy restrictions the economy has come under pressure
    5. The main political objectives would lose there justification
    6. Right winged parties would win all over Europe, the so called unity party of conservatives, liberals, greens and socialist would disappear
    7. Industry production and energy demand would fall. Living standards would fall. Confidence into public institutions, media and the juridical system would deteriorate
    8. Foreign investments would decline, national indebtedness might become a problem
    9. “European complexity” would fall on a level of lower complexity

    • Ed says:

      Jan, articles in Foreign Affairs are often prescient.

      On the other hand having Ukraine in NATO would be like Hunter Biden, a never ending embarrassment. A source of amusement for anti NATO folks.

      Most of the items they list will happen for the reasons Gail has given over the last several years. There is no escaping fate.

    • We will have to wait and see what comes out of the NATO meeting. I am skeptical that a path to NATO membership will be offered to Ukraine.

      The views of the various members of NATO are getting to be increasingly varied. It seems like they are unlikely to agree on anything, especially if there is increased cost involved to NATO members. NATO members are already spending much as they would like (or more) on supporting Ukraine’s response to Russia.

  12. Less than a week remaining in the life of the Anglo-American Dominance of the world if something does not happen by the end of the Vilnius summit on Saturday, the Alliance’s fall cannot be reversed.

    Whether you like or not, it brought the greatest growth in the history of humankind, although unfortunately a lot of such growth ended up in wrong continents.

    I have said many times that Asia and Africa should have been kept mostly undeveloped and their resources taken freely, with virtually no compensation to the locals, and USSR kept weak and dependent.

    USA was simply ‘too nice’. China won’t be.

    • Ed says:

      I dearly hope you are right. America (north and south) for the Americans. We have no need of Europe, Africa, Asia. Let them care for themselves. Close all US bases outside the US. Leave the submarines lurking off the Chinese coast and Russian coast.

      • Ed says:

        To be clear, bring the surface fleet home. Let EU, China, Japan, Korea pay to police the shipping lanes.

  13. MG says:

    A famous song in Czechoslovakia in the 80s about thé environmental issues, which questioned the communist progress based on the environmental destruction, with some religious hints:

    Na kameni kamen

    https://youtu.be/HiKaPDq6v-g

    English translation https://www.musixmatch.com/lyrics/Brontosauri/Na-kameni-k%C3%A1men:

    As a dry, old tree,
    As a destroying thunder,
    As a grass in the field,
    Like that this world seems to me, full of speech,
    And the more, the better I get.

    We will rend for something,
    Until here will not be
    Stone on the stone,
    And if there´s no God,
    So the earth and air take us,
    And this is the end.

    And all of this just because
    A few lords want to have a day
    Of richer kings,
    Despite of all the worlds they say
    They think of themselves, only of themselves

    We will rend for something,
    Until here will not be
    Stone on the stone,
    And if there´s no God,
    So the earth and air take us,
    And this is the end.

    Maybe it just seems to me
    And after the hard night,
    A nice morning will come,
    What will it be I don´t know,
    Taky jsem si zvyk′ na všechno kolem nás.

    We will rend for something,
    Until here will not be
    Stone on the stone,
    And if there´s no God,
    So the earth and air take us,
    And this is the end.
    Na naj na naj …

  14. NomadicBeer says:

    I have an off-the-wall question mostly for Gail:

    Do you know any uncensored forum where I can drop “crazy” ideas to get them into conversation and hopefully learn something.

    I would love to do it here (see below) but I would like a more rational detached conversation (I know it’s difficult in these emotional times).

    Here is an example of theories that I wish people would discuss:
    – Is Ukr war a training exercise for Russia? They have been given the chance to fight first old soviet weapons (which they knew) then old NATO weapons, then new EU weapons and maybe next year modern US tech. It’s the perfect setup for Putin to forge the perfect army.
    The question is what’s in it for the US? Is it just the corruption of MIC? Or is this a 3 way deal where China bought Biden and uses NATO as a training dummy.
    Also, if this hypothesis is true, should we expect more escalation (bringing NATO in)?

    Another hypothesis:
    – More and more it is confirmed that the jabs were different in different countries and batches (not to mention the placebo mixed in).
    So is it possible this is a huge pharma experiment because stupid, spineless humans are cheaper than lab rats. We know that the psychopaths that lead the world have (almost) absolute power and own (almost) everything. Put yourself in their shoes for a second: what is it that they want more than anything else? To be immortal of course.
    They spent decades perfection mRNA longevity treatments only to have half of the animals die in the experiments. They are running out of time so they decide to do a massively parralel experiment on billions of people.
    If this is true, my prediction is that we should see some small regions/cities where old jabbed retards live to be 100+ while everyone else dies around them (remember that this is gene therapy so a functioning immune system might actually be a disadvantage).

    Thanks for any and all feedback!

    • let’s just take one theme (assuming for the moment that it isn’t a windup)

      ”immortality”

      The multi-billionaire wants to live forever so he can enjoy his money forever.

      fair enough.

      but money is just a token of energy exchange

      so for money to last forever, the energy that supports it must also last forever.

      next question?

    • Jan says:

      I tend to the view, that Ukraine war and spikesation lead to the unevitable decline of Europe.

      To me the idea that the Ukraine war was set up as a training field to Russia does not make much sense. Of course the Russian military industry will use their advantages and so will do Putin! But these are side-effects. If you glance on the map you will see that Russia can never give up Crimea. Crimea leads to a domination of the Black Sea which is crucial to keep a maritime access to the world markets. For this reason, Crimea has always been in Russian hands since the 16th century. If you look to the circumstances how Russia has ‘lost’ Crimea to Ukraine and regained it again by an invasion in breach of international law, you will come to very different conclusions. Also the role of Hunter Biden in Ukraine is enlightening.

      One might argue that the Ukraine war is a trigger for the unification of the BRICSS. This idea though is very disturbing!

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I agree completely about the future of Europe. I am trying to understand the big picture – Europe is just a tiny peninsula that will become irrelevant in a couple of decades. It will go from colony of US to Muslim caliphate with a quick detour into failed state. (Note: I am European but this is the reality)

        The question is what are the future trajectories of resurgent Russia, world empire China and collapsing USA.

    • Replenish says:

      My 2 Cents..

      1. Mass vaccination and Lockdowns to Accelerate cures to common diseases and as an IQ/Compliance Test to successfully challenge individual civil liberties, small businesses/middle class, regulatory framework, standard treatment protocols and national sovereignty on the frontier of Global Governance.

      2. “Going Direct” to Solve Liquidity Crisis, Stimulus as Behavior Lever, Media Narrative Control and ESG and BLM to Cede Power to Public/Private Partnerships to Set Public Policy.

      3. Proxy War of Attrition to Encourage Financial Reset, Transition to Multipolar World Order and Development of Regional Trade and Energy Blocs along the De-growth Timelines (Absolute Zero, UN SDGs).

      4. Developed Countries Rolled Out 5G Mast Hardware and Digital Infrastructure during Pandemic Lockdowns to support QR codes, Health passports and CBDC’s.

      5. Full court press on new IHR Regulations, WHO Directives and the 4th Industrial Revolution.

      All of the Above are a part of CT Solutions to Limits to Growth

      Dual Purpose Military Countermeasures (Gene Therapy “Vaccines”):
      1. Predatory Contracts w/ Placebo/Poor QC Batches to Get Jabs in Arms as Baseline of Military Grade Psychological Operation (see DOD Involvement, OTA Contracts, FDA Regulations under OTA)
      2. Full Strength Batches to further Development of Military Bio-weapons and Countermeasures
      3. Purified Prototype from Decades of Testing as Targetted Gene Therapy for Individuals and Small Regions/Cities with Homogenous Populations.

      • NomadicBeer says:

        Your points make sense., but let me ask this:
        Imagine they succeed. They own us exactly like cattle. We live in the panopticon and even our thoughts are chemically controlled. Any day, you or your kids can be “invited” to a “doctor” to be castrated, killed or simply raped for fun.

        What next? Reduce the population as the resources dwindle? Turn themselves into Elois except that they eat the workers, not vice-versa?
        Now that I write it down, it sounds perfectly desirable- for them…

      • Ravi Uppal says:

        NomadicBear, Replenish etc . None of these scenarios will be implemented because they CAN’T be implemented . The key is nett surplus energy and we don’t have it . Last year SPR oil about 500,000 was issued just to stabilize the energy market . My opinion is that before any of this takes place we will have a collapse a la David Korowitz . The centre will not hold .
        P.S : It does not mean that the TPTB will not try , just fail . Analogy ?? Renewables , wind and solar .

        • I keep thinking that any big effort toward controlling population by the TPTB cannot work. At most, parts of Asia can band together and ship things to each other.

          NATO cannot work very well, for very much longer. It will eventually fall apart, I expect, but I don’t know that that will happen as soon as this meeting. More likely, a meeting with few things decided because no one can agree.

    • Thierry says:

      You forget to mention the main part of the covid thing which is the social experiment,,because it was one, and what they have learnt is probably beyond our imagination. They are ready for the next round for sure.

      • can you explain what the next round is likely to be

        • Jan says:

          Bil Gates has already commented on that. 2025 a new pandemic will arrive with a mortality of 20% especially in the younger generations. The WHO is asking to be able to implement drastic measures against human rights and against some constitutions to fight this crisis, including travel restrictions, mandatory vaccinations and deportations. There have been a rwspective war game in Brussels, 23. Oct. 2022 “Catastrophic Contagion”. They are expecting an enterovirus like Polio. As the war game “Event 201” predicted the following Covid pandemic very well, it is expected that “Catastrophic Contagion” is not less visionary.

          Most of the skeptics here believe such a pandemic is not possible without any effects within the vaxxed, be it Binary Poison or Original Antigenic Sin.

          https://catastrophiccontagion.centerforhealthsecurity.org/

          • Xabier says:

            It seems logical that they would move to a different pathogen, and age group, to increase the shock and fear factor,

            In short, they must kill children next time around. Granny can be forgotten.

            Requiring a new vaxx which has no track record in VAERS.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            The unvaxxed starve

    • Ed says:

      Nomad, I like your idea China uses Biden uses NATO uses Ukraine to train Russia. But China needs to bring the learning in house. Are Russian Officers lecturing in China? Are Russian weapons makers lecturing in China? Are Chinese officers in Ukraine learning with the Russians? Are satellite communication systems being used to allow Chinese soldiers in China to operate Russian drones in Ukraine? They way US operators in Nevada control drones in Syria. Are Chinese make and programed drones being deployed in Ukraine by the Russians?

      Are the Chinese using AI to improve Russian drone operations? They drone should be able to fly itself to the enemy trench, find an enemy in the trench, set the fuse of an explosive, grenade, to trigger two feet above the enemy when dropped. When all grenades are used return to base for new battery pack and more grenades.

      With good programming drones can continuously operate over all enemy locations, 24 hours per day. Enemy leaves bunker to go to the bathroom and BOOM, dead enemy. The drone does not need to wear down its battery flying all the time. It can set down with a good view of the enemy latrine and start flying when a target appears. Or, it can be equipped with a rifle and it can snipe any enemy that tries to use the latrine. If the enemy refuses to leave the bunker the drone can drop nerve gas down the bunker vent pipe. If the bunker has a generator the drone can grenade the generator.

      The Chinese have much to offer to the BRICS response to US aggression.

      Not to mention AI evaluation of satellite intel to find targets.

      Not to mention AI listening to all radio communication in Ukraine and providing actionable intel to the war fighters.

      Not to mention AIs carrying on conversations with enemy war fighters first offering them rewards like food and alcohol and drugs and money to be delivered by drone. Moving on to offering bigger reward to surrender. While all the while detailing the high life being lived by the leadership complete with photos dropped by drone. Maybe audio of bugged conversation of the leadership while enjoying their favorite hookers? Live coverage conveyed by radios dropped by drone. The psy-op dimension of drones and bugs is begging to be explored.

      • Ed says:

        The device that opens your grocery store sliding door was developed for the war in Vietnam. Person walks by and BOOM. Motion activated bombs can be dropped by drone into trenches that are in use. When someone walks by BOOM. Drone sets down observes trenches, wait until trench empty, plant bomb, retreat to observing post, when bomb triggers move in and plant second bomb before help comes, when help comes BOOM. One drone can mine and monitor many trenches from its high perch.

        With drones, AI, and nerve gas there should be no place on the battlefield that is survivable in the open. All humans will have to be in armor of some kind. Armor with sealed air systems.

        The making of the smart killing field is just starting.

        It is not limited to the front lines it can be deployed to the rich neighborhoods of London, Berlin, Paris, etc. With facial recog to target select individuals, their children, staff, friends. Bring the war to the decision makers.

        • But if there is really no plan to “win” the war, doesn’t that change things? Then you do as little as possible. You send your oldest, most out of date weapons. Certainly no soldiers.

          • Ed says:

            ??? If Ukraine would stop personing the battle field then Russia could take what it wants, could interrogate to find the na zi s and send them to Siberia? Emplace monitors and remote control weapons to stop weapons coming into Ukraine and have the de na zi and de military that it wants.

            All Ukraine government employees should have ankle monitor for location and sound. All transaction should be electronic for complete monitoring of behavior by Russia.

            Russia and China can develop important new passivization products. I am sure Klaus Schawb and friends will be big customers.

            Drugs may be used to keep the population placid and inline. In Ukraine, not in the new Russian parts with Russian speakers.

            The extensive policing of the borders road, rail, air will be done by Ukrainian employees at Ukrainian expense monitor in turn by drones, walking robots and AI. Random spot checks of any place in Ukraine will be by drone, walking robot, and AI. Just as IBM help monitor the jews in the camps for the na zi IBM will be happy to make money monitoring all Ukraine persons. Russia can partially vendor it out to IBM based in Russia and/or China.

            It truly is a brave new world.

        • Ed says:

          Some guy from Berkeley put out a video of splatter bots. Small flying drones with shaped charge explosives that could kill a person. This video was about two years ago. I would image that at least the Israelis are working on it hard. The US should be but is ossified and corrupt. China, Russia???

          On the battlefield should the enemy try to sleep the drone observer places a sound package and wakes them with the sound of animals being tortured as the US federal government used against women and children in Waco. Then it announces it is calling in a napalm strike. If they do not move call in the strike. If they move, move the sound package and repeat. No rest for the wicked nor the poor schmuck that got dragged off the street and put in a trench to die for Nuland (aka Noodleman) and friends.

          The options are limitless. Enemy is driving down the road drone appears in front of the driver keeping pace. It fires one shaped charge at the windshield and one at the hood over the engine. It zooms off and two seconds later BOOM dead driver, dead armored PC. Same for tanker delivering water and fuel adding a charge on the tank part.

          Artillery piece left undefended charge down the barrel, BOOM. Artillery shells left undefended set charge zoom away and BOOM.

          Enemy in a tank, drone places locator on tank, tells tank crew yeah ^&*^^*&( I have called in a missile strike on you hahah. Or just shoot a charge down the muzzle.

    • I am probably not the right person to ask about other forums for asking questions such as these. I know that “Discord” has a lot of special interest groups, but I know nothing about them, and how it is to get membership.

      Some people on Our Finite World want to talk about a lot of issues.

      Regarding some of the issues you raise, I don’t think that there is much chance that modern US technology will be used to fight the Ukraine war. The US does not want to escalate the war. It wants to spend as little as possible. All it wants to do is prevent a complete collapse of Ukraine.

      I am not entirely convinced that there were three different batches of vaccine. More likely, vaccines were given to the oldest/sickest first, and they tended to have a lot of bad results. These manufacturers were having difficulty making one type of vaccine.

    • Ed says:

      On the immorality idea I say no. They are already 70 years old giving them 110 is not going to make them happy.

      More likely development of race specific bio-weapon.

  15. Postkey says:

    “Lars Schernikau: “The Unpopular Truth..about Electricity & Future of Energy” | Tom Nelson”?

    • Lars Schernikau starts by talking about the fact that the number of people in the world without access to electricity actually grew in 2021 and 2022. This is the result of inflation. With higher prices, fewer people can afford electricity. Without access to electricity, there are health related things that they lose. Their life expectancy falls.

      Access to clean food and water are key problems in today’s society. Main problems are pollution – pollution of air, water, soil. Also human waste getting where it should not be. Inner peace becomes a challenge.

      I haven’t had a chance to listen to the who video. He gives this outline.

      00:00 Introduction
      00:19 Presentation starts
      09:02 Jevon’s paradox
      17:44 Germany:Highest power prices
      23:28 Unrealistic assumptions
      39:29 LCOE misleading
      46:40 Vehement against carbon dioxide tax
      51:07 Positive news
      56:09 Q and A
      ——

    • ivanislav says:

      Very interesting talk for those of us who like data.

    • Ed says:

      Good talk o why wind and solar will not be the solution to keep 10 billion humans getting increasingly wealthy.

      He talk about weaning off fossil fuels over 300 years! He has no solution.

    • Jane says:

      Excellent!
      I watched the whole thing.
      Many of the points he makes about EROI and other realistic problems with less dense energy sources —I educated myself on those issues twenty years ago, prompted the discussion was of Cape Wind building a turbine array in Nantucket Sound. Such a basic concept as energy density and amount of territory required to get energy out of these not-dense sources are not rocket science. Yet many “green” people just don’t “get it.”
      But his economic and investment analyses are extremely valuable.
      Schernikau is very lucid, very credible.
      The “dispatchable” vs. “renewable” energy and peak demand—very useful.

      Highly recommended.

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    Gypsie!!!! Gypsie!!! Slit it’s throat Do it in!!! Gypsie!!!

    https://t.me/leaklive/15050

  17. Fast Eddy says:

    Anyone still working should ask for a raise hahaha

    https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/208
    https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/209
    https://t.me/EdwardDowdReal/210

    • Both working men and working women show higher rates of disability (rising even in 2023) after Covid.

      • Xabier says:

        Edward Dowd: he told us the evidence of vaxx injuries in the workforce would be impossible to hide from the general public. He told us that the insurance companies would sound the alarm after seeing clams rise by 40%. That Pfizer et al would be destroyed.And that there will be ‘a renaissance’ when all of this is exposed and over.

        Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong!

        • Fast Eddy says:

          You’d think the share prices of medical and life insurance companies would be plunging … I’ve seen nothing on this in the financial news.

          UEP is a big deal … the Central Banks and the Plunge Protection Teams are likely stepping in ….

          • The number of workers in the medical field plunged and has not risen very much, in the US, if I remember what I have seen correctly. Even if there are more disabled people, they are not necessarily getting more care for the disability.

            Also, disability insurance is very high-cost. Practically no one buys it. It is the disabled person who must get along with the disability.

      • Artleads says:

        Slightly off topic: I sent this to a Brit friend, whose brother has the IDENTICAL heart problems (and related complications) someone just mentioned here today. Need to work on the death part more.

        What is life for? For the sake of argument I’ll say it is for serving. But if one is riddled with physical or mental pain one cannot serve. One must therefore work to forestall or alleviate that pain.

        What is death for? It marks the end of life and a different level of reality that the living need not be overly concerned about.

        Based on the above, I can understand why one might wish to preserve ones own life–emotional, economic, pragmatic reasons, etc.–and that of close (or useful) family, friends and associates. But beyond that, I’m unsure why or whether one should be concerned with preserving human life in general. Why should human lives be so valued, especially in light of its overabundance? (Might we instead preserve human life the way we do with a useful horse?)

      • Fast Eddy says:

        A vaxxer was telling me yesterday that there was an accident in town the other day — the driver died… apparently he had a medical event and crashed…

        I said probly a heart attack – ya he says — I says there’s a lot of that happening … people having heart attacks and crashing … ya he says… I wonder why … he does not take the bait…

        Then the discussion moved to the employment issues — I said that a healthy employment situation involves I think it’s 2-3% unemployment cuz you need that buffer otherwise you get a situation which we have now where salaries are bid up due to a tight market… I says it does not take much to throw that buffer off… if you strip out a couple of % from the pool you get this problem .. ya he says that’s definitely what’s happening … I throw the bait again — I wonder where all these people have gone … why are they working now? Not sure he says — benefits are not enough to really survive so how do they survive? Ya I wonder what happened to them …

        Again … clueless.

        The A Vaxxers think the Vaxxers are waking up … they 100% unaware of what is happening.

        And if you suggest it’s Vax Injuries they would lose their minds and repeat over and over … The Vaccines are Safe (and Effective) — don’t be such an id-iot

        • Xabier says:

          True, FE. People stopped taking the boosters here merely because they only needed 3 to go on holiday, not because they woke up.

          If 4 had been required they would have lined up, the craving for holidays as a part of normality is very strong.

          The A -vaxxers on SS are deluded about winning.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            mike stopped cuz they were no longer offering a free donut…

            norm has not stopped nor has keith

  18. Fast Eddy says:

    Bossssscccchhhhhheeee….

    Study: Repeated COVID Shots Weaken the Immune System

    What was once deemed a conspiracy theory has turned into reality. And it’s leading to “life-threatening conditions such as cancer.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/health/repeated-covid-19-vaccination-weakens-immune-system-study_5305770.html?utm_source=prtnrhard&utm_campaign=vigilantf&src_src=prtnrhard&src_cmp=vigilantf

  19. Fast Eddy says:

    hahaha… randomly shooting people … now this is Demoralizing as f789 https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/49386

  20. Fast Eddy says:

    norm … let’s hope this is orchestrated .. cuz if it’s real… https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/49379

  21. Adonis says:

    An American Bilderberger expressed concern over the sky-rocketing price of oil. One oil industry insider at the meeting remarked that growth is not possible without energy and that according to all indicators, world’s energy supply is coming to an end much faster than the world leaders have anticipated. According to sources, Bilderbergers estimate the extractable world’s oil supply to be at a maximum of 35 years under current economic development and population. However, one of the representatives of an oil cartel remarked that we must factor into the equation, both the population explosion and economic growth and demand for oil in China and India. Under the revised conditions, there is apparently only enough oil to last for 20 years. No oil spells the end of the world’s financial system.

    • Adonis says:

      It all ends before 2025 according to above 2005 “elders meeting”. Explains “fast Eddie’s” UEP theory .

    • Agamemnon says:

      20years? Is there a link?
      If this was true there would be massive rationing right now. Also there won’t be more energy use to support future growth or food production.
      Theres probably going to less use overall every year out.
      Even at 50-100years it will be difficult for alternatives.

      • Jane says:

        I don’t see how increasing population can be cited as a basic premise of any futuristic calculations. But even very realistic “futurists” just state, without any question, that the population will increase to 9 billion in so many years.
        In some ways the repetition of this “axiom” is of a similar ilk to teh pronouncements about “net zero.” Stating it does not make it true

        Obviously, if what various analysts are saying is true, there will not be any 9 billion people on earth because the energy will not be there. Populations will start to go down, possibly quite rapidly. First, life spans will decrease. Then live births will decrease. Then number of pregnancies will decrease. Etc.

        Unfortunately there is one group of people who will welcome this outcome. Gates could be viewed as a victim of Stockholm Syndrome.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      Oh I see only 35 years… no problem – we will be off oil long before that

  22. I AM THE MOB says:

    >comment from blog.

    “Monty Python has been uncannily portentous regarding our present times. Perhaps the unvaccinated will eventually be recruited to play the grim role of the cart drivers in the “Bring out your dead!” scene. And there’ll be nothing funny about it.

  23. davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

    only 2 days until Vilnius!

    love is in the air, or something.

    it’s going to be great.

    my carton of microwave popcorn is ready to go.

    what will The Hegemon do?

    • Lastcall says:

      Its an opportunity for a modern day equivalent to the ‘Emperor has no clothes moment’.
      Some tired old windbags puffed up ready to be deflated by just a single hi-Calibre’ shot.
      Will the carbon cost of this con-ference make headlines? Will greta make a stand?
      Perhaps we will have a ferdinand moment instead, or a shot from a glassy knoll?
      Maybe it will be a Pentagon Papers confetti fest?

      Tired old Europe with Two bit Biden as the lead act.
      What could go wrong?

  24. Slowly at first says:

    It took our ancestors almost 500 years to desacralize the natural world. Should we lament the inevitable end of the Scientific Age which began with Galileo and his mathematization of physics?

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      in those 500 years, the inexplicably numerous religions have been shown to be the oldsuperstitious fictions which they truly are, the billion+ ones and all the fringe ones as well.

      but of course there has been no complete universal acknowledgement of these fictions, and they live on as myths believed to be facts.

      no need to lament any of this, it is what it is, massformationpsychosis seems to have existed for many millennia, and continues today in the ancient forms and newer forms also.

      no need to lament the inevitable demise of scientific theory and methods either.

      the Universe found it completely acceptable for early humans to be impoverished hunter gatherers for hundreds of thousands of years, and it will be acceptable Reality once again when IC reaches total Collapse and the few thousands or millions of survivors return to the Glorious Amazing Fantastic Beautiful Rosy Sunny Days of hunting and gathering.

      • Jan says:

        The main reason for HG to be HG was a different climate. As a consequence the forests in Europe (I can only talk about Europe) could not develop, Europe looked similar to the Russian Tundra today. In such a vegetation of herbs and bushes, large animals have an advantage, that are easy to hunt.

        When the forests took over due to climate changes, the large animals became extinct. Men had to go into the forests and hunt much smaller rabbits and deers. This was less effective. The forests though stabilized the climate and made it possible to grow grain, indigenious in the Middle East. Without metals though it was not possible to work the ground for longer periods of settlements, so we see an era of tribes living in the forests and resettling every 30 years without any larger political structure. The later came with the metals and the upcoming of trade in the Middle Ages, when the surplus had to be protected by knightsmen.

        Living standards have been improved by fossiles – but not for everybody. There are a lot of people today that have not more than HG or the early settlers.

      • Jane says:

        What the heck is IC?

  25. I AM THE MOB says:

    Korean Soprano singer Lee Sang-eun found dead minutes before performance

    https://gulfnews.com/entertainment/korean-soprano-singer-lee-sang-eun-found-dead-minutes-before-performance-1.1688731296154

  26. Adonis says:

    I think we are in the end stages the finite worlders are evolving into a lord of the flies mentality have any other commenters noticed it poor norm is our sacrificial lamb

    • Zemi says:

      Poor Norm? Spare us the sob stories. The man is evil beyond belief. He’s a total greed merchant. He wrote a book called “The End of More”, but does he think it applies to him? No way. The greedy geriatric wants more of everything. More years of life. More pension. More money, more interest on his savings. More inheritance from all his poor pals whom he heartlessly outlives. More food. More of his girlfriend. And mean! Just how often can you recycle a colostomy bag? Then there’s all his tasteless poems that make people cry. The man is devoid of conscience. I’ll leave FE to do the sacrifice, though. Good luck to him, I say.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Well done .. bravo!!!

        But let’s not forget what norm did… he encouraged his grand kids to get Rat Juiced…

        cuz he didn’t want them to contract Vid (which as norm knows is not at all a serious illness for a healthy child)…. and pass it on to 90 yr old norm…

        norm demanded they inject this untested garbage … to protect norm from the Vid…

        Selfish NOF norm … risked the lives of the kiddies… so norm might stagger through a few more months/yrs of water aerobics and deadlifting….

        We know what you did norm. We remember

        How do you live with yourself?

      • Kowalainen says:

        Not sure if that makes him evil, rather a reflection of most rapacious primates of male gender.

        For sure he blows through a copious amount of finite resources a day, but then, who doesn’t?

        Whinging on norm only applies to FE, out of habit and default and those who turn the cranks and churns the oats.

        😂👍👍

    • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

      “I think we are in the end stages the finite worlders are evolving…”

      while the OFW articles are fantastic, the attitudes of some of the commentariat should not be overemphasized, since this comment section is far into the deep end of the pool of near future Doom scenarios.

      there are certain reasons for possible near term Doom, and yet there are also valid reasons for an extension of bAU in IC for at least a few more years.

      it’s Q3 of 2023, and the wobbling IC still stands.

      and many may disregard the recent past, but continuity is far more likely in the near future than discontinuity, so those prominent Doomers (CEP eh?) who have been largely wrong since 2017 (when I began commenting here, hurrah for me) will probably continue to be far off on the timing of Collapse.

      or not.

      que sera sera.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I’m assuming that if they thought they could hold this together for a few more years they would have waited on injecting billions with the Rat Juice.

        • Xabier says:

          The interesting thing is that they tried it on in 2009 – advanced planing indeed. Maybe it was the 2008 crisis that got them moving faster?

          But the vaxx then was obviously dangerous – too many fell ill with GBS – and they hadn’t secured total control of the MSM and regulators at that stage.

          They’ve worked very hard at that over the intervening decade, as we can see by the results. And the financial system hangs by but a thread now…..

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Notice how I easily change my mind on things… that ensures that I am always right in the end

      • Xabier says:

        2024, which is nearly within our eager grasp, will undoubtedly bring much continuity, I agree, but also some most unpleasant discontinuities: such as – once more – masks, lock-downs, QR code segregation and forced jabs with some new toxic substances of sinister provenance.

        2024, or at best, early 2025, will be when the steel fist really smashes down. It’s practically being announced from every street corner.

        Nazi Germany had quite a lot of continuity carried over from the Weimar era, but many new and distinctly nasty features which made life intolerable for non-conformists and which sent everyone without exception on their way to world war, mass death and destroyed cities.

        This scenario – life as normal but with a difference – will not be something to celebrate, except for those who, like our dear old Norm, consider a little more existence worthwhile at almost any price.

        • not if it involves more of your repetitious eddylite claptrap xabier

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Quite a few OFWers ripping into you norm … maybe you should have not bragged about getting the grand kids Rat Juiced to protect yourself… that is bad optics.

        • Jan says:

          @xabier

          In our environement here even the biggest hardcore vaxxers have become sceptics. I doubt the governments can enforce any further mandates. Perhaps if people are dying like the flies…

          • Xabier says:

            I’m afraid that’s not the case here, Jan: I see little or no ‘pandemic’ scepticism, and no awareness at all of vaxx deaths and injuries outside the Substack echo chamber and places such as this, and I suspect that most will comply when invited to – and that the invitation will be issued is almost certain.

            See the WHO preparations, and the recent comments by David Halpern the ‘nudge’ expert employed by governments. He is claiming people will don masks again as they now know the drill and are ‘calibrated’……..

            Norman for instance is an entirely typical, lower middle-class, Brit ,of average intelligence and at least basic education – just judge from his comments on the matter.

            The Covid regime was a bit less strict here in the UK than other EU countries, or nightmare places like Melbourne in Australia, etc, and only one sector – ‘care’ – was mandated (many of them resigned!) and that will influence the response, too, I think.

            However, I do hope your reading is right and that we will see a true popular rebellion next time.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              You are too kind!

              Norman for instance is an entirely typical, lower middle-class, Brit ,of average intelligence and at least basic education – just judge from his comments on the matter.

              norm is a good case study … as are mike and keith… For roughly two years we have hit them with irrefutable data that disproves Safe and Effective. Day after day month after month they are forced to look at this information …

              It’s no different than proving to them 1+1 = 2. Over and over and over…

              Yet … they continue to believe it’s 5. They continue to believe the vax is Safe and Effective – and that it saved millions … they can read this and still believe it saved millions https://metatron.substack.com/p/the-covid-vaccines-saved-millions

              Consider that the vast majority of Vaxxers are exposed to none of what we have shown norm … all they see is bbccnn…

              If you think norm is flying blind … imagine what the situation with the average Vaxxer.

              It is impossible to turn them. We know why but we cannot say it here without being censored. It’s a genetic flaw

            • Xabier says:

              Yes, FE, Norm Mike and Keith, our precious, invaluable, case studies in imbecility.

              So illuminating to study them, prod and poke them, and so……frightening!

              There are tens, hundreds of millions of them out there – this alone brings me out in a cold sweat.

              Mind you, such imperviousness to overwhelming evidence, such a fatal lack of basic reasoning ability, has something almost awe-inspiring about it, don’t you agree?

            • at least you don’t lace your own sense of inadequacy with four number swearwords and se xual fixations xabier

              that has to be a plus for you

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes I agree completely with this analysis… they offer us a window into the thoughts of the billions of mindless zombies across all walks of life…

              That clip from 1984 demonstrates the situation exactly … billions of MORE-ONS moaning ‘More Boosters’… ‘Putin Evil’… ‘Buy EV’ … ‘G…W…ing Bad’ …

              Notice how they latch onto lines from movies — ‘lock and load’… that sort of thing .. utter f789ing idjuts… I cringe when they do that…

        • Fast Eddy says:

          We could use another lockdown… to relieve the boredom

          • Not really.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Alright then .. let’s just go straight to the mass die off stage of UEP.

              I yearn to hear the Eeee Awww of the sirens… sounds like… victory… (feel free to drop some cannisters of napalm .. I am sure it smells nice)

      • Dennis L. says:

        david,

        Perhaps too anthropomorphic; the fabric of the universe we read is already say a billion years old, we read history, the speed of light limits the information we can receive to what has already happened. In essence, what will happen has already happened; we have simply not heard of it yet.

        Life is a voyage, it is probably 80/20 at best even for the universe; searching out the 20 is far more productive than dealing with the 80.

        Our future is in the solar system, it is before us, Starship will open it on to us. Somehow, incredible sums of financial and human capital are being expended to open a new frontier. We humans will stay on spaceship earth, our resources will come from the solar system along with limitless energy with all waste heat and pollution left in situ.

        We are on a journey, earth is traveling through the universe, we read not the future, but the history of that journey; to een catch up with our past is a billion plus year time span. Worrying about a few decades is futile.

        Dennis L.

    • Xabier says:

      No, he’s not really tender enough for that, poor old thing………..

      My condolences about your father, Adonis. I think we are all waiting for those we know who are multi-jabbed to go that way, and it’s hard to put out of one’s mind if we are fond of them.

      Rather agreeable to think of my few enemies meeting that fate, though……

    • Interesting. Without the influence of humans, one model suggests that the level of CO2 might fall too low for plants.

      At one time, there were articles saying that the farming of humans had prevented the world going into another ice age quickly.

      There are all kinds of strange issues.

      • Xabier says:

        The pseudo-religious Green myth that everything humans have done is evil depends on the false premise that the ecosystem without humans would be totally free of catastrophes and wonderously diverse, fertile, etc. The truth is far more nuanced. Although I agree that we have become the planet-poisoners.

      • Jane says:

        William F. Ruddiman hypothesizes that human activity is actually delaying the advent of another ice age, due in about a thousand years . . .

  27. Fast Eddy says:

    Perhaps whitey can make more monkey oo oo sounds at the football matches???
    https://t.me/TommyRobinsonNews/49369

    And then urinate on some Coreans for good fun?

  28. Fast Eddy says:

    Why are there Fewer Nutrients in Our Food?
    by Mary Lowther

    (OMNS Dec 20, 2020) Why do we seldom hear about the deteriorating quality of nutrition in our food crops? A recent article, quoting from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) 2000 food tables, reports that between 1963 and 2000 the nutrient content in all types of fruits and vegetables had declined by up to 50% and continues to decline. [1] For example, the vitamin C content of peppers dropped from 128 milligrams per 100 grams to 89 milligrams per 100 grams. Broccoli lost half of its vitamin A and calcium, and collards lost much of its magnesium. Cauliflower lost half its vitamin C, thiamine, and riboflavin, and levels of many other nutrients fell as well. A century ago the magnesium content of our diet was about 500 mg/day, but that has dropped to 175-225 mg/day. Thus, up to 50% of the population in the US and Canada is magnesium-deficient. [2,3]

    http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n54.shtml

    • It is a sad state of affairs, related to soil depletion. No one wants to talk about it, I am afraid.

      I understand that organic food tends to be somewhat better.

      • Ed says:

        We bought organic strawberries for the first time a week ago. They were 100% better than non-organic. Taste and texture and color all better.

        • Sam says:

          I guess that’s the new normal… you gotta pay to play. Poor will get the poor quality

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Generally industrially farmed produce tastes like cardboard.

          I froze many bags of tomatoes from our garden for consumption this winter

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Then you have your typical fast food meal … half cellulose (saw dust) … a bit of ground up hormone fed chicken… and filler made from who knows what… the saw dust is the most nutritious component …

        Pump in some seed oil heavy doses of salt and fructose… add MSG…

        Tastes Good!!!

        • Sam says:

          Don’t forget the french fries! The fields for potatoes are so toxic that the farmers won’t go to the fields for 2 weeks after spraying anti fungal…then after the potatoes are harvested they are off gassed for four days. Yum! I’m Lovin it!

          • Fast Eddy says:

            Humans are hyper intelligent though… right… right?

          • Dennis L. says:

            Do you have a reference for the 2 weeks of avoiding fields?

            Dennis L.

            • Jimothy says:

              I farm in the USA and can vouch for this, though spraying is not my practice. Many conventional farmers won’t feed the stuff they grow to their families

      • Dennis L. says:

        Personally looking at that idea; renewables would work? Still technocentric, but something is missing/wrong with our diet.

        Rochester, MN is a health town, too many are grossly and pathologically overweight; something does not work.

        Dennis L.

      • Jan says:

        The Glyphosate discussion should also be mentioned here!
        For example: Stephanie Seneff: Toxic Legacy.

      • hkeithhenson says:

        “related to soil depletion.”

        Calcium, could be although adding calcium to soil is common. Magnesium, not so sure about that.

        Vit C, I very much doubt it. Seems more likely to be due to breeding for less sour.

        But it does show that things change and you need to keep track of them.

  29. Fast Eddy says:

    The Meta-Awareness of Ethical Skepticism:

    If I was wrong, would I even know it?

    If I was wrong, would I be imparting harm?

    I did not know, I went and looked. Everything else was vanity.

    https://theethicalskeptic.substack.com/p/subception-the-invalid-martial-art

  30. Fast Eddy says:

    I wonder if Mike Yeadon is unwilling to accept UEP and the energy connection … cuz he cashed out on a company and likely has a few hundred mill in the bank…. and was planning to retire and cavort around the world dropping in on the best Gents Clubs in every location ….

    And his plans have been blown up.

    Put yourself in his shoes… he’d have Private Jet $$$… and he would have been looking forward to Action Adventures with the freshest finest flesh and Bolivian Money Can Buy … no Dumpster Hags for mike … only the best

    And the window is fast closing … he wont’ want to admit that

    • Of course he would not like UEP since he won’t be part of it

    • Jane says:

      What the heck is UEP?

      Whatever it is, I doubt that it holds any blandishments for Dr. Mike Yeadon.

      I have seen no evidence to support your vulgar comments about him.

      Perhaps you are projecting, FE.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Huh? Vulgar? What’s wrong with Gents Clubs and Bolivian blow? Let Mike live a little… he deserves it

        UEP >>> https://www.headsupster.com/forumthread?shortId=220

      • davidinamonthorayearoradecade says:

        Ultimate Extinction Plan is FE’s lame follow-up to his lamer Compassionate Extinction Plan which failed to arrive in 2021.

        never mind IQ, he claims a personal 1500 HP, which I am quite certain stands for HorsePoop.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          There you go insulting our newest member.. you have implied Jane is stoooopid and unable to think for herself…

          You assume Jane lets Huff and bbccnn tell her what to think.

          Bad form dave… very bad form

      • eddy??? Vulgar???

        oh surely not.

        Careful Jane, or you will find yourself consigned to the outer darkness of the dumpster trade.

        it has happened before, to people of the female persuasion who have questioned the veracity of eddy’s tailor.

  31. Mirror on the wall says:

    Biden Admits Russian Blitz Burnt Western Weapons; ‘Sending Cluster Bombs Because…’ | Watch

    The U.S. has been forced to admit the transfer of cluster bombs to Ukraine after initially denying it. The Joe Biden administration cited Ukraine’s lack of munitions as the reason for the controversial aid. Washington claimed that the bombs are being given to Kyiv because it is running out of ordinary ammunition. Earlier, Moscow accused Washington of sending cluster munitions to Kyiv. Watch this report to understand what a cluster bomb is and why its use is controversial.

    • Didn’t he say that Putin is losing in Iraq? Whatever coming out of that guy’s mouth is not to be taken seriously.

    • Jan says:

      The USA are running now out of ammunition, the poor ones, so they have to deliver bombs that mainly kill hungry kids strolling the fields and farmers.

      There is nothing Joe Biden could do against it, the poor little lamb!

      • Foolish Fitz says:

        It will be interesting to watch how nato countries, that have signed the Convention on Cluster Munitions, justify allowing such ordnance to travel through their territory, or indeed any type of encouragement of use.

        Someone needs to remind them just what they agreed to.

        “never under any circumstances:

        * Use cluster munitions; or

        * Develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, cluster munitions; or

        * Assist, encourage or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party under this Convention.”

        It’s another example, for the rest of the world to witness, the hypocrisy of the west in all its glory. No wonder the Russians are happy to let this play on.

        Play on nato, play on.

        https://youtu.be/72fnfMo0vlU

    • Tsubion says:

      Cluster bombs are “safe and effective.”

  32. Mirror on the wall says:

    > Biden; US low on ammo, US clusters are safe. Elensky curse, Rutte fragile. Slovakia soviet cars.

    UKR is out of artillery, and USA is low on it.

    USA is reduced to sending cluster bombs to UKR. They are ‘illegal’ and ‘war crimes’ when anyone else uses them (as USA conveniently alleges that Russia has) but USA is ‘not a signatory to that’, so no worries.

    The Biden camp is desperate to keep the war going until the Nov. 2024 USA elections. Good luck with that!

    • Ed says:

      To keep the war going the neocons need to pour more bodies in on the Ukraine side. Maybe black Africans?

  33. John Campbell now has a video on the new paper talking about the great variability in side effects of European vaccines, depending upon batches.

  34. Someone sent me this video, called “Scott Ritter’s Take on NATO’s Potential Collapse.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqOXV5Ul3QA

    He says that the US effectively stabbed Germany in the back, based on Seymour Hirsch’s article. When this becomes exposed, it could bring down NATO.

    • Craiig says:

      In the latest, Helmer is about to publish names and photographs of the divers
      https://tntradio.live/shows/war-of-the-worlds/

    • The WSJ has a different take on the situation:

      NATO’s New Focus on China Creates Internal Tension About Mission Creep
      Leaders of four Asia-Pacific nations are set to attend alliance’s summit for second straight year

      The four Asian nations are Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.

      NATO was created to deter Soviet tanks and missiles in Europe. Now it is also in the business of deterring China’s global ambitions, spurring concern among some members about mission creep and accusations by Beijing of inciting confrontation. . . .

      While worries about China are widespread among NATO countries, there are also concerns about an expanded role, particularly as the war in Ukraine erodes members’ military resources.

      French President Emmanuel Macron has been the most vocal skeptic of an Asian role for NATO, saying at a security conference in May that enlarging its “spectrum and the geography” would be a big mistake.

      Over the past few years, the U.K. and other NATO countries have sent warships for exercises in the Asia-Pacific region, but diplomats say some NATO members are wary of both losing focus on Russia and raising tensions with China.

      I would also point out that there is a funding issue. NATO has a 2% of GDP funding target for member countries, but the majority are not meeting this level. Continued fighting in Ukraine would likely require an increase in funding, especially if supplies for the Ukraine war are already depleted.

      We will find out how things go on July 11-12. Will NATO members work in the direction of expanding, or will they fall apart? Speculation is all over.

      • Lastcall says:

        I have always said if we send our Minister of Foreign affairs to the front line in Ukr the war will be over in days; who could face that!

        ‘;Nanaia is a tribal member of Waikato-Tainui, Ngāti Maniapoto and Ngāti Manu and her parliamentary experience has enabled her to contribute to the collective ….’

        https://www.beehive.govt.nz/minister/biography/nanaia-mahuta

        • Fast Eddy says:

          That face tattoo stuff is really strange… I can see doing that back in the day when you were attacking another tribe and wanted to frighten them….. but they don’t do that anymore so maybe rethink this.

    • David says:

      That would be a good development. The Warsaw Pact dissolved itself >30 years ago.

    • Jane says:

      “When this becomes exposed, . . .”

      WTF? The whole world knows NOW.

  35. Mirror on the wall says:

    Trade without USD. BRICS currency (backed by gold) coming soon

    currency from around 10 mins in

    likely in a year or two

    dollar and new currency will co-exist as trade currencies for a time until China likely pulls the plug on the dollar

    will be an international trade currency not for domestic use

    commodities, oil, gas, wheat, metals that make up the bulk of international trade

    lots of countries in Asia, Middle East, South America will join in, a queue is forming so can buy commodities, USA will ultimately have to

    it is all fall out from UKR crisis and USA financial sanctions on Russia, the Biden camp blunder

    USA economy may ultimately benefit from shift in petro dollar after a period of turmoil, but not the capacity for trade and budget deficits

    USA will be changed, in some ways for the better

    USA geopolitical hegemony is over thanks to the Biden camp and its ‘historic’ blunder, and USA will no longer be able to impose its will around the world

    • Bam_Man says:

      This will put an end to the post-1971 era of unlimited trade imbalances that has primarily benefited the US and UK.

      • Dennis L. says:

        Had the balances not been imbalanced would not there have been much less trade, much less through put of energy and much less “wealth.”

        It seems like it is all basically “The Report from Iron Mountain” a book over fifty years old.

        Dennis L.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      hahahahahaha

    • Sam says:

      Yeah but it’s still a ways out… if you think Russia and China trust each other??

      • Bam_Man says:

        Gold is a reliable currency in a “low trust environment”.
        Think about that for a minute.

        • Sam says:

          I did and I don’t come to your same conclusion. How much gold does Russia, U.s have….or China? No one knows? All speculation….The system would collapse if it was all of a sudden on the gold system…trade would stop and we would not be typing here at all. We would probably be killed…think about that….

          • Bam_Man says:

            There is more than enough gold for this type of system. The trade itself is not done using gold. Only the imbalances are settled in Gold. When you run out of Gold, you are forced to either accumulate more by running a trade surplus for a while, or just limit imports to the amount you export. It is a far fairer system than the racket currently being run by the AngloAmerican gangsters.

  36. Ann says:

    https://www.ft.com/content/a5027391-41a4-4e21-a72d-f8189d6a7b71

    “Financial models on climate risk ‘implausible’, say actuaries”

  37. ivanislav says:

    >> Mexico wants Russian fertilizers and steel – envoy
    >> The Latin American country is ready to export tequila, vanilla, and cocoa, its ambassador says”

    With friends like these, who needs enemies? Steel and fertilizer for tequila and cocoa…

    Russia is in a winning position, but they need to look inwards and focus on developing their own economy and industry. Forging alliances with countries that offer nothing in return should take a back seat.

    https://www.rt.com/business/579377-mexico-russian-fertilizers-trade/

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      The alliances are not just economic, they are geostrategic, without which Russia is liable to be defeated either sooner or in the mid term.

      It is not just about domestic energy dissipation, it is also about relative power in the world, which is produced through alliances, and which allows energy dissipation to continue.

      Natural resources are nothing without geopolitical power because someone else will just come and take them, and alliances are an important part of that global picture.

      Besides, it is only an interpretation that societies ‘aim’ (or ‘should’ aim) just at energy dissipation and not at geopolitical power, and indeed the tendencies are dual and ‘should aim’ is a human projection onto tendencies.

      Certainly any complete picture avoids a reductionism to either single tendency, and recognises their necessary interrelationship.

      So, it is all good and indeed necessary.

      Exactly how Mexico fits into the geopolitical picture is a matter for further discussion. There is the whole globalisation thing. It probably needs a whole essay to do it justice.

      • Good points.

        With limited oil available, it needs to be used in what is the most efficient way. It may not be in trade with Mexico, even if it has goods to trade, unless there is an overwhelming need for Mexico’s goods.

        Presumably, Russia could get along without tequila, vanilla, and cocoa, or get vanilla and cocoa from a closer source.

      • ivanislav says:

        >> The alliances are not just economic, they are geostrategic, without which Russia is liable to be defeated either sooner or in the mid term.

        My view is that geostrategic / non-economic help from basket-case low-technology countries isn’t worthwhile to Russia if it comes at an economic price. Russia’s economic stability is a core part of their geostrategic risk profile and therefore they must not damage their economy to buy goodwill. What Russia needs is (1) partners with something to offer in high tech areas they lack and (2) de-dollarization partners who are willing to do so jointly, but without requiring economic support from Russia. All the rest is noise.

        • drb753 says:

          I don’t disagree with you Ivan. The ideal Russian ally is Japan, and secondarily Germany. For the reasons you offer. Given that for geopolitical reasons you need to have south american partners, venezuela first, and argentina second (although argentina is much more a likely partner for China).

          • ivanislav says:

            Mutually beneficial but politically impossible while they remain US vassals.

    • Sam says:

      They don’t have the population!!!!!! It’s too little too late

      • ivanislav says:

        Okay okay, Mr Zeihan!

        • Sam says:

          Maybe you are right…I google it and I find 5 articles that say they are just like every other country in population decline and one that says they are not…..Huxley was right too much information to tell the truth anymore..

    • Jane says:

      Why should the Russians be forced to limit themselves to drinking vodka?

      Furthermore, “Chocolate makes life good,” as my mother’s sign in her kitchen announce.

  38. A mass regression of civilization is now inevitable.

    Dennis L will post his daily prayer to Elon Musk, et al, and some strange guy with lots of arcane gods’ name, etc but the trend cannot be overturned.

    It looks like advanced civ will stop advancing probably from next year, and a hopefully slower decline for a generation.

    • Cromagnon says:

      Civilization stopped “advancing “ about a decade ago. You musta missed the memo. The collapse is now in full free fall and should hit terminal velocity within 5 years.
      If the sun flashes or we go full retard with nukes then the over soul will pick up the pieces.

      • ivanislav says:

        “But muh artificial intelligence…”

      • drb753 says:

        I suspect that civilization stopped advancing during the 2997-2001 period. we can discuss why and when we think things stopped working.

        • Jane says:

          I was perfectly happy with the state of civilization in ca. 1970.

          So, we can backslide for some time before we really start to feel any pain in the “modern conveniences” and “culture” areas.

          • civilisations dont just ‘tip over the edge’ at the end of a given year

            anymore than you fall off a bike the moment you stop pedalling

    • Except we really don’t know what is ahead. Many strange co-incidences have happened over the life of the Universe which have allowed humans (and our predecessors) to flourish on Earth. There may be more strange occurrences ahead. Economists talk about the Invisible Hand that moves the free market economy. Maybe there is a real Invisible Hand, putting His thumb on the scale in favor of humans.

      • Mirror on the wall says:

        This is all basically made up but presumably a Higher Hand could simply set in motion a cosmos that would inevitably have certain outcomes (like humans, though they may be no ‘big deal’ in the big picture) without any further interventions or need for ‘Thumb work’.

        An Aimed Creation (which I am not endorsing, it seems to be basically unknowable stuff) does not require a Guided Cosmos in the sense of ongoing interventions of any kind.

        Presumably the Highest Being (ens realissimum) that is conceivable could aim its ‘missiles’ without the need for ongoing adjustments, but as I say it is all basically made up stuff and conceptual projections of the human psyche.

        Perhaps some humans have a psychological need for a Higher Hand that does not simply effectively aim in the first place and has/ prefers to intervene in any ongoing manner; and likely some like the idea of capacity for initial effectiveness.

        My ‘Higher Hand’ may be ‘better’, in my view, than someone’s else’s that needs to correct for initial ‘botches’ with its ‘Thumb work’. That very concept seems to me to jar with the idea of ens realissimum or total capacity – the ‘botch God’. But that may be simply my psychology.

  39. Hubbs says:

    Interesting. If 30% Vaxxes indeed were placebos, this would indicate that the whole purpose of Vaxxes was not to protect the people but to experiment with large numbers, the “effectiveness” of the Vaxxes; not the effectiveness as a vaccine to treat COVID, but rather as a weapon.

    I follow John Titus as he is a former engineer turned patent attorney with a keen sense of forensic statistics and economics.

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/Fi7ZXcDFUdUi/

    • Xabier says:

      Yes, Hubbs, and I would widen that to suggest it was an experiment to:

      Test control of the media and the effectiveness of censorship.

      The response of the general public to the psy op: can they be fooled forever? Can they be trained?

      The control which can be exerted over the medical profession, academia, the judiciary: how stupid? How conformist? How corrupt?

      To show who is capable of mounting effective opposition and expose the lies – to be eliminated in the next round, one assumes.

      And to see if fundamental human rights can be abolished.

      • lateStarter says:

        Exactly what I was thinking. How far can we push this (or anything)?

      • Xabier says:

        And another test: they had key figures lined up to do their dirty deeds, in full knowledge of the fraud and the dangers of the vaxxes, etc, but would they follow through, would they be able to stomach the mass killings once they had started?

        The answer seems to be yes – or did people like Donkey Face in NZ ask to be retired from working at the coal face of genocide?

      • Jane says:

        Xabier–
        Yes.
        All of us skeptics who didn’t fall for the vax hype were wondering what it was all really about.
        I think events worldwide but especially in the “first world” are gradually revealing the types of agendas you list.

    • Also probably the largest psychological experiment ever taken, to separate the sheeple and those who have some backbone.

      • drb753 says:

        I agree with all three of you. It is conceivable that future shots will be much deadlier. And unvaxxed people are in some lists. With 90%+ of the tight oil increase coming from the Permian, the Permian giving ever more natgas, and conventional oil in decline everywhere, the time to tighten the system is now. Strong capital controls coming to the West first.

        • Cromagnon says:

          The great demon, the god of this world, plays the human enterprise like a hillbilly fiddle.
          The elites pay for ufo psy-ops and for the blood of children,…. The warhawks push for mushroom clouds, the unwashed lose themselves in false realities of screens,…..

          All the while a few of humanity look around in amazement and wonder at how things came to be this way.

          and fewer still say, “shit, here we go again”….as in the days of Noah.

          • Kowalainen says:

            Ah, the eternal recurrence [of the Monkey Business]. The best entertainment in the entire galaxy.

            YOLO!
            M.O.A.R!1!!1!

            🫵😂

            • Fast Eddy says:

              The last act of a thorough bucket list would be to observe a mushroom cloud close up

  40. Xabier says:

    Ridiculous complexity:

    It seems that most new commercial buildings and residential blocks here are being equipped with mini- pumping stations, which were initially designed to deal with situations where gravity would not carry waste water away, but architects are just putting them in anyway as standard. I’m not sure whether they are actually mandatory.

    The problem is that they break down frequently, and obviously require immediate action; a friend of my informant is kept very busy driving about 2.5k miles per week doing these urgent repairs, and making lots of money doing so.

    Rather dirty work, and long days but he doesn’t mind (not very fond of his wife it seems!)

    Imagine if he dies or is incapacitated by the vaxxes, can’t get the parts or do all those hours on the road in his (diesel) van? Whole buildings out of order!

    A quite unnecessary point of vulnerability, which assumes uninterrupted BAU – like so much…..

    • I never heard of this problem before. Maybe these mini-pumping stations are used in the UK, but not elsewhere. I don’t know.

      I live in a very hilly area. It seems like something of this sort might be needed in parts of the US, like this, as well.

      • drb753 says:

        Much to my surprise my log cabin in idyllic Russia has pumps in the septic system. Before then I had never seen an active septic system. Needless to say it broke within 8 months, requiring much repair. Not a fan, of course, and even now not 100% good. When I run a washing machine for example, the pumps (2 of them for redundancy) can not cope and I get sewage near the house.

      • Seneca's Cliff says:

        Pump stations for raw sewage are common to get wastewater uphill from any residential or commercial areas that are lower than the sewage treatment plant. Usually they are large and run by a public utility. The only reason for small private ones is that a developer wants to build a subdivision in a place where the public utility is not interested in providing service and septic tanks are not acceptable.

        • I did a working illustration of one 40 odd years ago

          Crap flows downhill, but then needs lifting again (and again) until it can flow down until it can pass into the treatment plant.

          It is a system that should be familiar to all OFW inmates.

          Most people are unaware that such things exist

          They will become all too aware when the power goes off long term

          • Lots of things that we are used to having work, won’t work, I am afraid. These are electricity dependent.

            Quite a few pipelines of many kinds require electric pumps: oil, natural gas, water (especially to high-rise buildings). There are some natural gas pipelines that are powered by burning natural gas. I remember diesel generators, together with diesel oil, being needed to get oil flowing again from the gulf coast in one pipeline, after a hurricane. Atlanta is at the end of a pipeline used for oil products shipped from Texas/Louisiana. It can end up with gasoline stations without gasoline and diesel after hurricanes.

          • Saint Ewart says:

            Bazalgettes combined sewer system in London allowed its population to increase exponentially in the late C19th eclipsing all other world cities. People didn’t choke on their own sewage, which held populations at a max capacity. The northern and southern interceptory sewers meet at the West Ham pumping station, a charming gothic pile. Where coal powered lifts raised the cities slurries to continue their fall to Beckton , wher it hung around for a bit in pools and then into the Thames, to feed the jellied eels. It’s a pumped drainage system that’s lasted for nearly 2 centuries.

            The story of excrement is as fundamental to advanced human settlement as that of energy.

    • Geert says:

      1.Covid is not over; we are still seeing cases of symptomatic infection being transmitted from person to person.

      2. This is not normal after an epidemic is past.

      3. A disease can become endemic because most of the population has immunity. With this “vaccine,” many people can catch Covid again and again. They can harbor the illness without showing symptoms.

      4. The virus is still evolving, in the current situation. This is not at all usual in an endemic phase.

      5. The virus is now being controlled by non-neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals, rather than T-cells. If normal antibodies were formed instead, this situation would not be happening.

      6. The immune response vaccinated people have is very weak and is declining over time.

      7. Because of the now much lower immune response, we can expect more virulence in some of the new variants. We should expect to see waves of growing hospitalizations and deaths. In fact, this is already happening to some extent in some countries.

      8. Summer should be a low point for Covid circulation, just as it is for most respiratory viruses. It is likely that when cold weather resumes, Covid will be back in much greater force.

      9. Highly vaccinated countries will be taken by surprise. Everyone thinks the disease is over, but it is not over.

      10. In Geert’s view, most unvaccinated people will get mild to moderate illness.

      11. With normal herd immunity, repeated circulation of the same illness could not happen. It is only because the vaccines interfered with normal immunity that this could happen.

      12. In his next video, Geert will tell people how to prepare for this next round of illness.

      ——
      I might add that just this week, my hair dresser called and said she was ill with Covid (tested positive; sounded like she had a bad cold) this week and needed to reschedule. She said she had gotten Covid from her husband. I said something about, “At least Covid isn’t too severe now.” She responded with, “My husband was in the hospital for two days with it.” I would guess her husband is around 65 years old and vaccinated a few times.

      The week before, someone cancelled out from a social event I was attending because of Covid.

      So Covid is definitely around in Georgia, now.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        She responded with, « My husband was in the hospital for two days with it.

        This is a good time for the ominous music (for norm keith mike the Vaxxer Boys)
        https://metatron.substack.com/p/covid-requiem-aeternam?s=r (keep that playing while reading the rest)

        Just thinking about this:

        The virus is now being controlled by non-neutralizing antibodies in vaccinated individuals, rather than T-cells.

        Notice how there is not much of a push to continue boosting …. cnnbbc suggest an annual booster … at most … the messaging is that ‘covid is over’ — I believe the WHO has said that… the Vaxxers are relaxed about Covid… they all believe that it’s old news…

        We know that what little protection the injections offered declined more rapidly with each shot.. now that the Vaxxers are not vaxxing … that protection is waning and headed towards nil.

        Meanwhile their immune systems are f789ed… without that next hit of Rat Juice… they are susceptible to very severe disease….

        norm we’ll all chip in a quid to pay SSS to visit you in hospital… the grand kids won’t be coming … cuz they’ll be in the ICU ward for young uns… at the Children’s Hospital.

        Well done norm!

  41. Fast Eddy says:

    two minute 30 second mark https://www.bitchute.com/video/XnGjgccx9Ptn/

    Vaxxers. norm mike keith are there

    • Title of this is “Nineteen Eighty Four: A Dystopian Dark Science Movie or a Documentary?

    • Xabier says:

      Norm, Keith, Mike: ‘NMK Ultra’ – proof government spooks can change your mind ad take it over……….

      • if you open eddylinks,

        that is proof enough that your mind is no longer your own xabier

        as for me, i’ll keep hold of what little sanity is left to me in my declining years—tyvm

      • Fast Eddy says:

        More on that here https://off-guardian.org/2023/07/08/this-is-psychosis-plain-and-simple/

        We’ve seen norm supporting THAT as well stating that tommy – who opposes THAT — belongs in prison.

        • that is exactly the rant tommy uses, against anyone who says he’s just a violent criminal.

          obsessing over and over on the same subject leaves only one conclusion eddy—tarring people with the same brush all the time, means that some will always drip on you.

          And i’ve never said tommy belongs in prison—i don’t need to.

          the police and a judge put him there.withhout help from me

          still—his must look forward to visiting days–he cant have many friends left these days.

          And as someone obsessed with ”protecting the childre’n’ eddy—would you care to elaborate on the Sandy Hook crisis actors?—All those dead kids looked s realistic.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            We’re just wondering why you would hate the guy who tries to stop the pedos.

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    Teachers stunned after new science curriculum has no physics, biology or chemistry
    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2023/07/teachers-stunned-after-new-science-curriculum-has-no-physics-biology-or-chemistry.html

    • mandarin says:

      Hey FE, this one could be useful to you

      DeepMedia’s Synthetic Media Detection Platform · Give it a Try · The Most Trusted Brand in Deepfake Detection · The Biggest Security Threat of the Future · Accuracy …
      deepmedia.ai/detection

      BTW, is headsupster.com dead?

      KOALEMOS was the personified spirit (Greek god,daemon) of stupidity and foolishness. What’s the one of your plow sows?

    • Supposedly “getting rid of traditional silos.”

    • Ed says:

      It is OK the Chinese and Russians still teach science.

    • David says:

      I was told ‘This content is not available in your region’.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Science teachers are stunned that a very early draft of the revised science curriculum makes no mention of physics, biology or chemistry.

        Newshub has obtained the document, which was sent to a few teachers for their feedback.

        Some of them were so alarmed they went public.

        Doug Walker is the Head of Science at St Patricks College in Wellington.

        “The moments I really thrive on are when you see that dawning epiphany on a student’s face,” Science Teacher Doug Walker said.

        He has an absolute blast teaching science.

        However, Doug is among a number of teachers who’re worried after seeing a leaked draft of the revised school science curriculum.

        “I was quite surprised and concerned about what seems to be missing from the document,” he said.

        That document proposes to teach science through five contexts – including the Earth system, biodiversity, and infectious diseases.

        But nowhere in the draft does it actually mention teaching the basics of science, like physics, chemistry or biology.

        “Major areas of science can’t be seen in the document, to me the curriculum should be explicitly stating what, how and when to teach certain concepts to students”.

        Physics educators aren’t happy either, and fear students could leave school without knowing the basics.

        “We have a draft curriculum that doesn’t even mention physics, it’s very high level,” NZ Physics Institute President, Joachim Brand said.

        “We are not trying to get rid of physics, chemistry and biology,” Science Curriculum Co-Writer Cathy Buntting said.

        • eddy

          looks like i shall have some deleting to do on the sabbath

          will save them up for a single swipe–individual deletes wears me out.,

          at my age i have to save my strength

          i feel sure you will understand

        • Ed says:

          NZ does not do science so it has not need for science education. A reasonable saving of money. Now classes in tattooing needed.

          • Fast Eddy says:

            how to tattoo your face like they did 200 years ago and never be able to get a job except working for the NZ govt cuz you look like a freak… oh and btw cuz guns nobody is scared of you and your ridiculous tattoo … pull the trigger now and it will go boom and your face gets blow off.

            hahahahahahaaha I guess someone forgot to tell them that … or maybe they get all soused up on cheap whisky and end up in the tattoo parlour and before they know it they’ve etched up half their face

        • Ed says:

          NZ does not do science so it has not need for science education. A reasonable saving of money.

  43. Tim Groves says:

    For those of you following the Ukraine carnage:

    Cut, and paste from
    Lvov | telegram (s):

    § The results of the night strike of the Russian Aerospace Forces on Lvov.
    They aimed at the building of the local SBU.
    §| The source of the Russian Defense Ministry specified the goals of the night strike with Kalibr on Lvov.
    The purpose of today’s strike on the reserves of Ukraine was Western equipment and militants on the territory of the military academy in Lvov. Western armored vehicles were on the territory, with a high degree of probability, British Challenger tanks.
    It is also reported that on the territory of the Academy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the time of the strike there were up to 800 Armed Forces of Ukraine and foreign mercenaries.

    §| Yesterday’s strike on Lvov was significantly bigger than it seemed initially…there are reports of multiple buildings being hit.
    “The target of yesterday’s attack on the strategic reserves of the enemy was Western military equipment and personell on the territory of the Academy of Land Forces in Lvov.
    The strike with precision weapons was carried out on the park area of the academy, where Western-made armored vehicles were located, and with a high degree of probability, including British Challenger tanks,” – said the source to Ria Novosti.
    He added that the blow also hit the barracks, which housed about 800 Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries.

    §| Last night, the Russian military attacked the AFU facilities in Lvov.
    Local residents claim that this was the most powerful strike on Lvov since the start of the war.
    According to captain of the 1st rank Vladimir Gundarov, the Russian troops used this time some ‘special’ missiles, writes “MK”.
    He noted that the power of the explosions was simply amazing, and the destruction was noted in a large area of the Academy of the Ground Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, not only educational buildings were affected, but also car parks with military equipment, fuel depots, dormitories and barracks.
    If sea-based Calibers were used, as representatives of the Ukrainian Air Force say, then they were most likely a new model missiles with more powerful warheads.
    Moreover, not one or two rockets hit, as 30 buildings were damaged, according to the Lviv authorities, the source explained.
    >… P.S.
    In 2022, a new upgraded Caliber version was announced…they might have been used yesterday at Lvov

    Posted by: Melaleuca | Jul 7 2023 11:35 utc |

  44. Tim Groves says:

    The “Most Corrupt, Unpopular Leader in Dutch History” Mar Rutte has been forced to resign.

    According to the BBC, it’s because of “asylum policies”.

    The Dutch government has collapsed because of a disagreement between coalition parties over asylum policies, Prime Minster Mark Rutte has said.

    The four parties were unable to find agreement in crisis talks chaired by Mr Rutte on Friday.

    The government was set up a year and a half ago but the parties have been opposed on migration for some time.

    Local media reported fresh elections would likely be held in November.

    Word on the street is that it’s the farmers that have forced this through their mostly peaceful protests about having their lands stolen and their livelihoods destroyed.

    Let’s hope Rutte is the first in a long line of WEF puppet dominoes to fall and then we can all live happily ever after.

    This Dutch farmer thinks that in a couple of Days Macron will go and then the German government and Europe will collapse. Wishful thinking?

    https://twitter.com/MarkFriesen08/status/1677441269633781760

    • Xabier says:

      Does this sort of thing make an difference?

      On the one hand, we can assume another aligned puppet will be put in place: for instance in Britain, Rishi Sunak (3rd World infiltrator! Kulm) would be replaced by Keir Starmer or someone else in full accord with the Plan.

      On the other hand, an awful lot of trouble seems to have been taken to insert the right people in various parties and professions, so the individual does matter quite a bit.

      If key actors (in every sense) can be removed, it must pose difficulties.

      Moreover, They have been very active in subverting the US electoral process and have loudly complained about the threat of ‘populism’, ie electorates voting for the wrong people.

      So continuing democratic politics is seen as a problem by them. Just as, say, more than 20% saying No to masks and jabs would be.

      I wonder what the lovely ‘extreme right-wing’ Eva Vlaardingerbroek will have to say about all of this? I shall be glued to this little screen.

    • Perhaps we will see a number of unpopular leaders being forced out.

      Macron and Trudeau have been mentioned, but there are others as well.

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