Author Archives: Gail Tverberg

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.

Reaching the end of offshored industrialization

Posted on May 21, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

Moving industrialization offshore can look like a good idea at first. But as fossil fuel energy supplies deplete, this strategy works less well. Countries doing the mining and manufacturing may be less interested in trading. Also, the broken supply lines of 2020 and 2021 showed that transferring major industries offshore could lead to empty shelves in stores, plus unhappy customers. Continue reading →

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications | Tagged , , , , | 2,112 Comments

The world’s economic myths are hitting limits

Posted on April 18, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

There are many myths about energy and the economy. In this post I explore the situation surrounding some of these myths. My analysis strongly suggests that the transition to a new Green Economy is not progressing as well as hoped. Green energy planners have missed the point that our physics-based economy favors low-cost producers. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , , | 2,033 Comments

Advanced Economies Will Be Especially Hurt by Energy Limits

Posted on March 17, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

Historical data show that a reduction in energy availability has mostly affected the US, European countries, Japan, and other advanced economies. I expect this situation to continue as energy limits (oil and coal, especially) become more of a problem. Advanced economies will start looking and acting more like today’s less-advanced economies. Continue reading →

Posted in Energy policy, Financial Implications, Introductory Post | Tagged , , , | 2,175 Comments

Should the US add more LNG export approvals?

Posted on February 14, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

The US already has a huge amount of LNG export capacity approved but not yet under construction. The likely roadblock is the need for debt financing. One obstacle is the need to find investors willing to make very long commitments–as long as 25 years, considering the time to build the LNG plants, plus the time that they are expected to be in operation. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications | Tagged , , | 2,426 Comments

2024: Too Many Things Going Wrong

Posted on January 15, 2024 by Gail Tverberg

In 2024, the world economy is acting more and more like an 80-year-old man than like a young vigorous economy. Perhaps the economy can continue for quite a few more years, but it increasingly looks like it is in danger of falling apart, or of succumbing as a result of what might be regarded as minor problems. Continue reading →

Posted in Financial Implications, Introductory Post | Tagged , , , | 2,922 Comments