Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit oil extraction falls apart, and oil prices fall further. This is the way the “end” is reached, not through high prices.
I recently tried to explain how the energy-economy system works, including the strange way prices fall, rather than rise, as we reach limits, at a recent workshop in Brussels called “New Narratives of Energy and Sustainability.” The talk was part of an “Inspirational Workshop Series” sponsored by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Figure 1. Empty Schuman room of the Berlaymont European Commission building, shortly after we arrived. Photo shows Mario Giampietro and Vaclav Smil, who were the other speakers at the Inspirational Workshop. Attendees started arriving a few minutes later.
My talk was titled, “Elephants in the Room Regarding Energy and the Economy.” (PDF) In this post, I show my slides and give a bit of commentary.
Slide 2
The question, of course, is how this growth comes to an end.
Slide 3
I have been aided in my approach by the internet and by the insights of many commenters to my blog posts.
Slide 4
We all recognize that our way of visualizing distances must change, when we are dealing with a finite world.
Slide 5
I should note that not all economists have missed the fact that the pricing situation changes, as limits are reached. Aude Illig and Ian Schindler have recently published a paper that concludes, “We find that price feedback cycles which lead to increased production during the growth phase of oil extraction go into reverse in the contraction phase of oil extraction, speeding decline.”
Slide 6
The comments shown in red on Slide 6 reflect a variety of discussions over the last several years. Oil prices in the $50 per barrel range are way too low for producers. They may be high enough to get “oil out of the ground,” but they are not high enough to encourage necessary reinvestment, and they are not high enough to provide the tax revenue that oil exporters depend on.
Slide 7
Most people don’t stop to think about the symmetric nature of the problem. They also don’t realize that the adverse impacts of low oil prices don’t necessarily appear immediately. They can temporarily be hidden by more debt.
Slide 8
There would be no problem if wages were to rise as oil prices rise. Or if there were an easily substitutable source of cheap energy. The problem becomes an affordability problem.
Slide 9
The economists’ choice of the word “demand” is confusing. A person cannot simply demand to buy a car, or demand to go on a vacation trip. The person needs some way to pay for these things.
Slide 10
If researchers don’t examine the situation closely, they miss the nuances.
Slide 11
Slide 12
Many people think that the increasing use of tools can save us, because of the possibility of increased productivity.
Slide 13
Using more tools leads to the need for an increasing amount of debt.
Slide 14
Read this chart from left to right. If we combine increasing quantities of resources, workers, and tools, the output is a growing quantity of goods and services.
Slide 15
Read this chart from right to left. How do we divide up the goods and services produced, among those who produced the products? If we can only use previously produced goods to pay workers and other contributors to the system, we will never have enough. But with the benefit of debt, we can promise some participants “future goods and services,” and thus have enough goods and services to pay everyone.
Slide 16
If we decrease the amount of debt, we have a big problem. Instead of the debt adding to the amount of goods and services produced, the shrinkage acts to decrease the amount of goods and services available for distribution as pay. This is why moving from deficit spending to a balanced budget, or a budget that reduces debt, is so painful.
Slide 17
When I say (resources/population), I mean resources per capita. Falling resources per capita makes it harder to earn an adequate living. Think of farmers trying to subsist on ever-smaller farms. It would become increasingly difficult for them to earn a living, unless there were to be a big improvement in technology.
Or think of a miner who is extracting ore that is gradually dropping from 5% metal, to 2% metal, to 1% metal content, and so on, because the best quality ore is extracted first. The miner needs to work an increasing number of hours to produce the ore needed for 100 kilograms of the metal. The economy is becoming in some sense “worse off,” because the worker is becoming “inefficient” through no fault of his own. The resources needed to provide benefits simply are less available, due to diminishing returns. This problem is sometimes reported as “falling productivity per worker.”
Falling productivity per worker tends to lower wages. And lower wages put downward pressure on commodity prices, because of affordability problems.
Slide 18
The problems that prior civilizations reached before collapse sound in many ways like the problems we are seeing today. We are seeing increased specialization, and falling relative wages of non-elite workers.
Slide 19
We seem to have already gone through a long period of stagflation since the 1970s. The symptoms we are seeing today look as if we are approaching a steep downslope. If we are approaching a crisis stage, it may be much shorter than the 20 to 50 years observed historically. Earlier civilizations (from which these timeframes were observed), did not have electricity or the extensive international trade system we have today.
Slide 20
The period since 1998 seems especially flat for wages for US wage earners, in inflation-adjusted terms. This is the period since energy prices started rising, and since globalization started playing a greater role.
Slide 21
This is a list I made, showing that what looks to be beneficial–adding tools and technology–eventually leads to our downfall. The big problem that occurs is that non-elite workers become too poor to afford the output of the economy. Adding robots to replace workers looks efficient, but leaves many unemployed. Unemployment is even worse than low pay.
Slide 22
We can think of the economy as being a self-organized network of businesses, consumers, and governments. New products are gradually added, and ones that are no longer needed are eliminated. Government regulations change in response to changing business conditions. Debt is especially important for economic growth, because it makes goods affordable for customers, and it enables the use of “tools.” Prices are created almost magically by this networked system, through the interaction between supply and demand (reflecting affordability, among other things).
Slide 23
It is only in recent years that physicists have become increasingly aware of the fact that many types of structures form in the presence of flows of energy. We have known for a long time that plants and animals can grow when conditions are right. The networked economy illustrated on Slide 22 is one of the types of things that can grow and flourish in the presence of energy flows.
Slide 24
This is my view of how an economy, as a dissipative structure, works. “Tools and technology” are at the center. If a person doesn’t think too much about the issues involved, it is easy to assume that tools and technology will allow the economy to grow forever.
There is a potential for problems, both with respect to inputs and waste outputs. Early modelers missed many of these “issues.” M. King Hubbert created a model in which the quantity of energy supply and technology are the only issues of importance. He thus missed the impact of the Waste Output problems at the right. The Waste Outputs lead to falling prices as limited supply nears, and thus lead to a much steeper drop in production than Hubbert’s symmetric model would suggest.
Slide 25
Peak oilers recognized one important point: our use of oil products would at some point have to come to an end. But they did not understand how complex the situation is. Low prices, rather than high, would be the problem. We would see gluts rather than shortages, as we approach limits. Much of the oil that seems to be technologically extractable will really be left in the ground, because of low prices and other problems.
Slide 26
Here, I am getting back to the topic I was originally asked to talk about. What else, besides low energy prices and too much debt, are likely to be problems as we reach limits?
Slide 27
The easy way of modeling the use of wind turbines and solar turbines is to assume that the electricity produced by these devices is equivalent to electricity produced by fossil fuels, or by hydroelectric. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
Slide 28
Trying to integrate solar panels into an electric grid adds a whole new level of complexity to the electrical system. I have only illustrated some of the issues that arise in Slide 28.
The fact that the price system doesn’t work for any fuel is a major impediment to adding more than a very small percentage of intermittent renewables to the electric grid. Intermittent renewables can only be used on the electric grid if they have a 24/7/365 backup supply that can be ramped up and down as needed. Unfortunately, the pricing system does not provide nearly high enough rates for this service. We are now seeing how this works out in practice. South Australia lost its last two coal-fired electricity power plants due to inadequate wholesale electricity prices when it added wind and solar. Now it is experiencing problems with both high electricity prices and too-frequent outages.
Another problem is that new [long distance] transmission makes buying from neighbors optimal, over at the left of Slide 28. This is a new version of the tragedy of the commons. Once long distance lines are available, and a neighbor has a fairly inexpensive supply of electricity, the temptation is to simply buy the neighbor’s electricity, rather than build local electricity generating capacity. The greater demand, without additional supply, then raises electricity prices for all, including the neighbor who originally had the less expensive electricity generation.
Slide 29
It is easy to assume that EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) or some other popular metric tells us something useful about the cost of integrating intermittent renewables into the electric grid, but this really isn’t the case.
Slide 30
We are now beginning to see what happens in “real life,” as intermittent renewables are added. For example, we can now see the problems South Australia is having with high electricity prices and too many outages as well as the high electricity prices in Germany and Denmark (Slide 29).
Slide 31
Wind and solar are not very helpful as stand-alone devices. Yet this is the way they are modeled. Some researchers have included installation costs, but this still misses the many problems that these devices cause for the electrical system, especially as the share of electricity production by these devices rises.
Slide 33
A networked system works differently than a system that is “user controlled.” It builds itself, and it can collapse, if conditions aren’t right. I have shown the economy as hollow, because there is no way of going backward.
Slide 34
Many people miss the point that the economy must keep growing. In fact, I pointed this out in Slide 2 and gave an additional reason why it must keep growing on Slide 16. As the economy grows, we tend to need more energy. Growing efficiency can only slightly offset this. Thus, as a practical matter, energy per capita needs to stay at least level for an economy to grow.
Slide 35
If energy prices rise, this will tend to squeeze out discretionary spending on other goods and services. If we cannot obtain energy products sufficiently cheaply, the system of economic growth will stop.
Slide 36
The fact that energy prices can, and do, fall below the cost of production is something that has been missed by many modelers. Prices can go down, even when the cost of production plus taxes needed by governments rises!
Slide 37
Wind and solar are part of the category at the top called “renewables.” This category also includes energy from wood and from geothermal. Many people do not realize how small this category is. Hydroelectric is also considered a renewable, but it is not growing in supply in the United States or Europe.
Slide 38
It takes energy to have an intergovernmental organization, such as the European Union. In fact, it takes energy to operate any kind of government. When there is not enough surplus energy to go around, citizens decide that the benefits of belonging to such organizations are less than the costs involved. That is the reason for the Brexit vote, and the reason the question is coming up elsewhere.
Slide 39
The amount of taxes oil-producing countries can collect depends on how high the price of oil is. If the price isn’t high enough, oil-exporting countries generally have to cut back their budgets. Even Saudi Arabia is having difficulty with low oil prices. It has needed to borrow in order to maintain its programs.
Slide 40
Oil prices have been too low for producers since at least mid-2014. It is possible to hide a problem with low prices with increasing debt for a few years, but not indefinitely. The longer the low-price scenario continues, the more likely a collapse in production is. Also, the tendency of international organizations of government to collapse (Slide 38) takes a few years to manifest itself, as does the tendency for civil unrest within oil exporters (Slide 39).
Slide 41
Slide 42
It is easy to miss the point that modeling a piece of the system doesn’t necessarily tell a person very much about the system as a whole.
Slide 43
Once an incorrect understanding of our energy problem becomes firmly entrenched, it becomes very difficult for leaders to understand the real problem.
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Just for information :
https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/us-nuclear-capacity-may-drop-25-2050.html
”
According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the nuclear power capacity in the United States could decrease by more than 20 GW between 2018 and 2050, as 9.1 GW of new capacities are expected over this period, while the retirements of 29.9 GW of nuclear capacity are scheduled over the period.”
All the cost overruns and energy to build a nuclear power plant. Then, all the costs to decommission it. Then all the waste to deal with. Doesn’t seem worth it. Seems like coal could be made to work better and cheaper and cleaner.
Yup
If Elon would make the nuke plants, everything would work out just fine.
Nuclear power plants are so last century. Surely Elon is working on a new Tesla with a nuclear fusion reactor built into the car the size of a walnut. I hear it is called dilithium crystals or something like that. Find us some new roads Elon.
Keith…. the bell … please….
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A new article on Zerohedge references this post on Gail’s blog: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/state-denial-economy-no-longer-works-it-did-past
Good article Greg
Gail gets a complement
I think the only thing he misses is that the reason that debt is essential is that resources are unaffordable. So the corporate malinvestment is a product of flat growth. It’s more profitable to speculate in a Fed secured paper market than grow a product with shrinking consumer base.
Feedback loops are killers.
Yes, shocking, Gail gets a plug on an almost main stream site. Kind of scary. When I read the article there were only 10 comments. I’ll have to revisit later and see what Zerohedge readers are thinking. I would guess that readers of Zerohedge are a bit more knowledgeable than those of the more mainstream outlets like CBS, ABC, NBC, FOX and CNN. So, it should be a good gauge of a more educated audiences reaction to limits to growth.
Zerohedge readers are delusional all be it a different kind of delusion than the masses….They think that if only they would have let the markets do their thing without CB intervention, the market tanks, they make money on their stupid gold and get to scoop up cheap stocks and bob’s your uncle…little do they know that without CB intervention we would not even be here anymore…to get an idea how delusional they are, go read the comments when Gail’s posts come out on ZH….They have no clue that infinite growth on a finite planet is a mathematical impossibility….
ZH commentators set the bar very low. There is nothing to be learned from reading comments on that site.
You would think, but Gail is not well received at Zerohedge.
No wonder retail and restaurants are failing…
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/personal-income.png
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/US-debt1-17.png
http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2017/us-bank-credit2-17.png
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I don’t agree with everything they have to say, but I think Kunstler and Greer are smarter than most of the people commenting here.
I also consider myself smarter than most of the people here. No offense, but many of you are just a bunch of angry workers who don’t think you got your fair share, so you have fantasies of instadoom, to stick it to those politicians and corporations, etc.
That sounds more like you.
To clarify, this is a response to “I also consider myself smarter than most of the people here. No offense, but many of you are just a bunch of angry workers who don’t think you got your fair share, so you have fantasies of instadoom, ”
Many people here are older workers who have done very well for themselves, with a few exceptions. (I’m an exception) Not the same can be said about you. If you’re smarter than everyone, we have yet to see proof of it.
You are still processing things emotionally, which tells me you’re disturbed by the idea of instant doom, instead of rejecting it due to flaws in the evidence presented.
It’s worth noting that some people are emotionally *attracted* to instadoom as well. This isn’t necessarily in response to anyone in particular above, but I think that the idea that instadoom believers are always the most logical/rational (and everyone else is driven by emotion) gets overblown. We’re all capable of falling prey to emotional biases.
Sceadu-
Good point. I will regret for the rest of my life that I defended the invasion of Iraq.
I opposed it at the time … but now I think it was likely necessary.
To demonstrate how far I have come…. I would support ring-fencing the Saudi and Qatar oil fields … and imposing genocide on the populations of those countries…. in the interest of adding a few months to BAU.
These are two of the remaining sources of cheap oil — but much of their oil is being wasted domestically….
If we got rid of the domestic demand by using tactical nuclear weapons on them — then starving to death anyone that remained…. we could free up that cheap to extract oil taking some of the pressure off of BAU.
Ya I know that’s rather harsh…. but what the hell…. these people are all going to be dead soon if we don’t take draconian action …
If it makes everyone feel better … before the nuclear strikes are called in we can drop Thank You letters and sacks of Hershey’s Kisses to them…
http://www.applecandyco.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/hersheykisses.jpg
I think most “instadoomers” here are not at all attracted by that…many here are doing very well for themselves within BAU and would love to see it go on for decades…
If I could continue to live large for another 10 years — and 99.9999% of the population of the planet were living in a conditions worse than the worse Calcutta slum….
I would choose that over collapse of BAU in a heart beat.
For reasons obvious to anyone with an IQ above 100…. this is not possible.
When global growth stops. BAU will unravel very quickly
There is a great quote from Krishnamurti — which I can’t find back because his teachings are so prolific — where he says that you can’t hold a belief and really think about an issue at the same time. He often said that humans will draw conclusions about unknowable things just because we crave a sense of certainty. I have found that to be very true of collapse. We know that our system is unsustainable, but predictions — even very logical, fact-based ones — are still not facts. The idea that something huge is coming that we can’t even envision is terrifying. While someone might not find instadoom itself appealing, it might scratch that emotional itch for certainty for them.
I don’t buy into these steaming piles of philosophical dung heaps that are used to explain what needs no explanation.
Some things just are. Like vanilla ice cream. And cold clean water.
But then I am with The Core… we are gods… we know all. If you want to quote great thoughts – quote us — not the other way around.
Certainty re collapse scratches no itch for me. I prefer uncertainty. I prefer life. Uncertainty at least suggests a chance of continued life. There is no uncertainty. This is one of those things that just is
Here’s the thing…
The global economy must grow — it can stop growing for a short time — we call that a recession.
Recall the situation post 2008. Not very nice was it. Especially for those millions upon millions who lost their jobs… that is what stopping growth looks like.
No need to explain it. It is just one of those things that is. Growth stops — people get thrown onto the street. Always.
But if a recession is not checked — and growth resumed — then we get this
https://i0.wp.com/www.fivestarsandamoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deflation-Downward-Spiral-Singapore.jpg
In keeping with the theme of quoting from The Core — I give you a statement from another god … Norman:
Our most recent history shows that the slightest slowdown of our current economy by just a few percentage points brings an immediate chaos of unemployment and global destabilisation.
http://www.endofmore.com/?p=1464
You don’t need Sidaharthavicious … to explain things… you have us.
Sceadu, yes, it is clear some people are strongly emotionally attached to instant doom. It serves as a defense. When it is challenged they will fight tooth and nail to block any competing thoughts from their mind.
Have I mentioned that some years ago I bought land in a remote part of BC Canada… a place that was accessible by a ferry journey on one side — and the Rocky mountains on the other…
The theory was that post collapse there would be hydro power available… that there were not many people in this region … I was stocking up on hundreds great works of literature… and I was going to hunker down in BAU Lite…
I was just as stooopid as you guys are.
So there is hope for you.
Keith…. the bell please…. ting a ling it
dolph,
that was kinda the point, they are all smart guys.. Cant say in any way Kunstler or Greer are in the dunce department. Yet, the few of us who look at the big picture, finance, J-I-T supply chains, hazards of the hypercomplexity reducing its complexity drastically.. its obvious.. with mathematical certainty.. how this will play out..
As a species that likes to think about itself as the wise ape, it baffles me there are so few of us here. It could be described, also with mathematical certainty, that this would be the most important time to use them smarts. If we got any? If not at the biggest bottle neck in the history of history, then when? If not at the extinction level event, then when? But even if Gail and Norm and a few commenters here describe things on par with the sharpest minds who ever lived.. still, the audience for the sharpest minds who ever lived is surprisingly small.
“For the last 800,000 years the average CO2 concentration has been about 235 ppm with a range from 180 to 290. Now atmospheric CO2 concentration is above 400 and rising fast. CO2 concentration is well out of range for an ice age period.”
Well, at least our Homo Erects and Neanderthal ancestors had some experience with this (possibly not even Neanderthal– actually eliminate them- shared a common ancestor 500,000 years ago)
have some experience with these levels, because homo sapiens sure has never experienced this.
Don’t dismiss the lurkers;)
Dont know about the lurkers.. kinda the point in lurking I guess
But would love if the lurkers would chip in with their personal five cents about the predicament we are in, if in any way possible?
I was lurking since 2011, just started posting last year…I guess there must be a few who are like me 🙂
ITEOTWAWKI, I like your posts very much.
I’m not that smart,but if the problem is unsolvable…….you know. But I do think/hope there will be survivors. Just a question of climate or NNR scarcity leading to economic collapse as to what might “get” us first. (Aren’t I just a ray of sunshine :))
Thanks Snorp! 🙂
I would suggest we are clever apes not wise apes.
You are right Van. We are still human and have shortcomings. Unpleasant facts evoke emotional responses and denial in ways that help to preserve the species (and sanity). Very few people want to know the truth. Some stumble on the truth believing they want to know the truth only to reject it when they discover the implications. It would be nice if our only problem was greedy bankers or corrupt politicians. It would be nice if we could unwind this mess we are in. Nature is not nice.
Unfortunately, we are fast approaching an event horizon where our old laws (economics and finance) and customs (imperialism, capitalism, some acceptance and altruism) will no longer apply. I suspect the closer we get to this event horizon the more chaotic and bumpy things will get until something snaps. At that point there will be no way back to our current economic/cultural system. The knowledge (if you want to call it that) of how to build consumer goods (electronics, cars, motors) will be lost forever. Not just the know how will be lost but, the resources to build and power these devices will be out of our reach. Not that we would even care because every day would be a struggle just to survive.
In a way we appear to be entering a black hole. Which doesn’t sound very good. I try to be hopeful, but as Van points out, the math is so brutal. The exponential function is a bitch. We have tapped a massive source of energy and have pushed the exponential function through the ceiling and broke the tiles and went out the roof. We have never been able to push the exponent this high ever before in human history…ever. And certainly not on a global scale. We likely will never again.
Van Kent
I second that response.
I also agree that most people react in emotion rather than reason. This is the first step in grieving, denial.
We haven’t yet discussed the catastrophic environmental pollution that will result from abandoned mine tailings dams. Once the BAU breaks, which already has happened because there is no growth to cover fixed cost, there is a tsunami of unintended consequences headed our way. The JIT system will leave people without any ability to mitigate them. Add FE’s cooling ponds there is no BAU lite scenario.
Limits to Growth painted this all with broad strokes but now with current information we can clearly see the mathematical conclusion. Even though I think everyone here agrees it is highly counter intuitive. It goes against classical supply demand matrix. But no one ever considered a contracting system trying to maintain fixed cost obligations and the feed back through the economy.
So dolph no everyone here isn’t an angry non-elite. Even FE has moved out of his container and is enjoying BAU till it crashes.
Everyone here however is a realist.
Dolph … the gods have acknowledged you…
Ask Keith to ring the bell x2.
problem is, that virtually no commenters elsewhere will stretch themselves to draw all the threads together, then take time to think about what it means to everyone on the planet in a collective sense
instead they examine food, or energy, or climate change as if they were separate entities, rarely if ever do they throw in what the effect of all three combined will have on our political system, and the certainty that it will give rise to extremist political systems, each determined to “prove” one way or another, that the problems we face are anything but the three things I outlined above–and that extremism will (not ‘might’) lead the theofascist regimes immediately prior to total collapse.
)that is where our final death struggle will lie, fighting with each other to ‘prove’ something.
Denial will be our killer, because it is human nature to deny the inevitable, particularly when it can’t be proven immediately.
A runaway truck heading towards you can be seen and heard–climate catastrophe by 2030 or whenever can be dismissed as nonsense.
That’s why I wrote this piece on medium:
https://extranewsfeed.com/an-infinity-of-futility-819630ea935f
Norm
At some point everyone will be left with their belief system.
In Africa right now drought is causing crop failure and grazing issues they are being battled out on religious lines. Christian Muslim.
If we step back the entire globe is a resource race divided along religious lines. Including the US.
Religion is a Snare and a Racket.
Fools believe politicians fools believe priests.
The truth no one wants they love lies.
But truth does exist it does whether people love it or not. Truth is absolute it stands on rock. Truth can’t be consensus truth must be discovered.
Lazy minds can’t know truth they will always be prisoners of commentary.
Live large breath deep it’s only a moment.
i keep saying—that when the energy system that holds the USA collapses, the nation will secede into 5 or 6 separate nations, for the simple reason that there will be nothing to hold them together—along ethnic, geographic religious lines—subsequently into smaller regions as they get weaker.
i see nothing much other that theofascist regimes…the craziness of some politicians seems to point that way
though i could be wrong for some regions—certainly not for others.
I think you are absolutely right it will be regional but not all theofascist. The southeast, theocracy, the north east, northwest, and California, some sort of secular dictator. I could be wrong as well but I don’t see the religious impulse that strong in those areas, particularly among the young men that will provide the muscle.
i agree, one can never gauge the extent of this or that regime—the south will certainly slip into theofascism—i sometimes think they have already
Norman, there is a book “The Nine Nations of North America”. I will be so happy when we can admit the south was right we would both be happier after separation (north from south).
thanks Ed, I hadn’t heard of that.
I don’t think the manner of the breakup will make anyone very happy–though I don’t doubt it will come about
This will be bouncing off the walls of the container when the world ends. I need more batteries….
I’ve listened to preachers,
I’ve listened to fools.
I’ve watched all the dropouts,
Who make their own rules.
One person conditioned to rule and control,
The media sells it and you live the role.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2VZjE6JdHg
And… when the darkest hour arrives… when the suffering is harsh… when we have a moment to cool the gun barrels before the next horde descends…. and a moment of lightness is required…
There is this:
Yes I read that piece earlier. Well done as always Norm.
thanks Greg
‘I also consider myself smarter than most of the people here’
You are a very distinct almost non existent minority.
Keith … no bell for this one….
Will someone get some pepper spray onto this lunatic….
what is this shit are people in usa so angry on trump that can not control the emotion
they should understand that trump is just like bush and obama
interesting article about trump and the rothschilld which may interest some of the conspiracy minded people on ofw i gotta hand it to the rothschilds if a solution to our predicament is to be found the rothschild may be our only hope https://philosophyofmetrics.com/how-rothschild-inc-saved-donald-trump-freepom/
Third, there is no rationale to the anger. It is primarily fueled by propaganda and the neomarxist left. For example, a younger relation, a millennial, hates Trump, because of his policies against Muslim immigrants. I asked, “where was all the hatred whenObama and Clinton destroyed Libya, killing many tens of thousands of Muslims in the process?…no answer. Why, because they do nor think and only believe what they are told to.
Ford To Slash 10% Of Global Workforce
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-15/how-not-recession-ford-slash-10-global-workforce
https://i0.wp.com/www.fivestarsandamoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deflation-Downward-Spiral-Singapore.jpg
The need to put more purchasing power in the hands of non-elite workers is not progressing very well…..
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/news/german-town-goes-all-in-on-renewable-energy/vi-BBBbxub
Quite interesting — I suppose that that power goes into a grid which is largely powered by things other than IRE (intermittent renewable energy — wind, solar, etc.).
The last major attempt I know of to get an AC power grid to run on IRE was in Kauai, Hawaii, years ago — last I checked their power grid operator’s website, it said they hoped to be up to 50% solar power several years from now — where has IRE worked IN ISOLATION, to run an AC power grid?
All that needs is Koombaya to be playing in the background and it would be perfection…
I didn’t watch the entire thing but what happens when the wind is not blowing and sun not shining?
Were they using pig shit to make bio-gas?
I am sure that would scale beyond a 148 person spec… and work for this:
http://architectureimg.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/skyscrapers-hong-kong-massive-cityscape-china-asia-city-evening-night-light-hills-lights-skyscrapers-photo.jpg
But FE, the sun is ALWAYS shining… in LEO. So, no excuses. 😉
That’s a pretty picture but havent you ever wondered why we really need to have all those lights on every single night of the year in our cities?
When most people are asleep…
I used to walk and drive around london in the early hours and there’d be hardly anyone else around.
The nightcrawlers could make do with night vision goggles.
And govs everywhere could save a ton on bills.
I have nephew who lives in a small German town…smart guy. He led the town into developing a wood chip fired water heating plant…it is almost totally automated. It heats water and the water is delivered to each house for heating. I have seen reports recently that the wood chip supply may begin to be a problem…not sure.
Why are smart guys so stupid?
I was listening to a Derrick Jensen podcast, and started wondering why he isnt here on OFW commenting
I had to check on some old favourites of mine, how they were describing whats going on
Noah Smith
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-04-04/when-economics-failed
Umair Haque
https://umairhaque.com/wreckonomics-21fcb7aaf1da
Slavoj Zizek
https://youtu.be/Gw8LPn4irao
And oh boy are these ‘thinkers’ way off
Even Martenson, Kunstler, Orlov or the Archdruid doesnt tell it like it is. Why is that? Why are smart guys so stupid?
Firstly, many dont seem to understand that energy is the main story. But even if dr. Tim Morgan has the energy background right, he doesnt much like to talk about the hard reset option, and what that will imply. Wonder why?
Secondly, it would seem many dont know about the interconnectedness of the financial world, the raw materials and the spares. So many still believe in some sort of BAU lite version of the hard reset. Global supply chains seem so very hard for people to understand? That with a hard reset all of the hard to get resources will also stay in the ground forever.
Thirdly, even fewer seem to be aware of the sixth mass extinction and the stress the biosphere is under currently. Thinking, that hunting or fishing would be options in SHTF. They are not. http://peakoilbarrel.com/confessions-of-a-doomer/
And then fourthly we have Eddys favourite the spent fuel ponds, and mine virulent strains. Nonetheless, one can say, it will bring totally unexpected new threats when a hypercomplex global civilization crashes suddenly. Things we couldnt expect. Even Alice Friedemann doesnt talk about this stuff. Even though shes got all of the other stuff figured out. Just thought it should be obvious that a hypercomplex global civilization crashing would have some ‘side-effects’..
Why are smart guys so stupid? Why is this big picture so hard to see? To me it would seem like the smart guys just concentrate on the things they can communicate to others easily and efficiently. Maximize profits, so to speak. Taking in one big picture, not to speak four, and holding them overlapping the booming BAU. Seem so very hard for the majority. So the truly smart guys concentrate on messages they know they can ‘sell’.
Just makes me more grateful we have Gail and Norm..
People extrapolate from their personal lives. Things get a little better, things get a little worse. So, when the financial collapse happens it makes sense that they think things will get a little worse. I actually think that things will fragment. Some areas will be horrific, some not too bad. We shall see.
…Just makes me more grateful we have Gail and Norm..
and Van Kent, CTG, Tim Groves, Greg Machala, JT Roberts, the “sticking” man Xabier, and of course the fast and furious Fast Eddy along with all the other absolutely interesting people that post here.
Joebanana
Oh dear, I should never have mentioned the ‘sticking’: it seems to have stuck!
‘Home brew’ man would be more accurate. 🙂
Sorry X, I got a real charge out of the sticking post. I’ve done lots of brewing and distilling myself. If I call you anything from here on it will be ‘Funny wise man’;-).
Oh no, please stick with the ‘sticking’! 🙂
I’m starting to feel like I’m missing out on something. I need to start brewing and distilling something but I’m afraid what FE might suggest.
well henry ford designed his first cars to run on moonshine that the farmer could distil himself
Think its bad now with the kids, the car would always be coming home empty!
Excellent point VK! I made a similar comment last year here on OFW…it is strange that all these people (add Richard Heinberg to that mix), seem to think that a certain reset is possible, some sort of BAU Lite…although Derrick Jensen’s solution (if I remember correctly from the documentary based on his book END CIV Resist Or Die, that I saw
a few years back) was basically for everybody to off themselves to save the biosphere…I think FE should have a talk with him about those pesky spent fuel ponds if everybody did that…so whether we all off ourselves today or wait for the financial system to collapse either way this biosphere is finished in the short (2027 as per Guy) to medium-term…the greenies don’t seem to get that point…and to say a few years ago I was turning off my lights for Earth Hour…Hahahahahahahahaha, I was such a NOOB!!!
Guy is a nut. He jumps from one bizarre instadoom scenario to another. There is a great website that refutes everyone of his scenarios. Not that they might not eventually lead to collapse, just not as fast as Guy says. Folks used to shred him on his site so he just shut down the comments. He uses “science” to make his points just like the Delusistans use “technology” to make theirs. Every once in a while he muses on the fact that he is wrong, but it’s not his fault. He’s not a hard scientist but he pretends to be one. That leads to his faulty conclusions that he seems compelled to defend, even though hard science refutes them every time. Noobees do latch on to him though.
Sorry, collapse should be replaced with NTHE.
I stopped following him years ago…but that the biosphere will collapse at some point with everything we have done (action – reaction) there is no doubt the biosphere will change drastically in the coming years/decades…now whether it will become Venus or if it can bounce back remains to be seen by….nobody 😉
Guy Mc Pherson tried to set himself up as a kind of Prophet in the desert.
The more wrong he was, the more certain he had to sound and the less he could tolerate dissent, or contrary facts.
Pitifully sad.
A sad figure indeed.
But then how many other seemingly intelligent souls may be experiencing some form of self delusion?
What if the whole human race is in fact deluded?
Are we not simply pixels in a holographic projection from a two dimensional plane according to the latest evidence?
https://phys.org/news/2017-01-reveals-substantial-evidence-holographic-universe.html
Agreed. I got this vibe instantly from watching some of his ‘lectures’.
There exists a type of individual – whether sincere or not – that for whatever reason latches on to one aspect of a topic and proceeds to milk it for profit or other needs.
Mcpherson is no better than the types peddling ancient alien nonsense and other such scams. What befuddles me is the sheer number of people that lap this stuff up with no apparent signs of irony.
I had a look at something from Jensen 4 or 5 years ago — he was advocating industrial sabotage to ‘save us’
I don’t think he quite understands the implications of destroying BAU…
I think he mentioned living with an Indian tribe?
At least he’s not advocating the Scott Nearing way to salvation — so he is not a MOREon…. because as we know — Scott Nearing’s Good Life was the way of live that resulted in 7.5 billion people… and the upcoming Big Extinction Event.
‘I was turning off my lights for Earth Hour…Hahahahahahahahaha, I was such a NOOB!!!’
I feel your disgust…
Let us say that there is probably less than 75 person in the world who truly knows what is going on… hehe…. that is like 0.000001%.
If you don’t do the research, you will never be truly “aware” Research takes years and no one will guide you on what to research.
Just three things – finance, supply chain and spent fuel ponds. That all…..
Have good week !
“Why are smart guys so stupid?”
I would say stupidity (or smartness) has little to do with this. I think the problem is mainly lack of intellectual courage to face the facts. And maybe absence of a truly curious mind, capable of pursue the truth at all costs. Most people dont care abouth truth, but only profit and more-more-more. And intellectuals in many aspects are just like everybody else. They want to be loved and respected by MSM, they want to be read and sell a lot of books, want to be invited to conferences and live as large as possible. Truth doesn’t pay.
And Zizek is just a conceited clown.
“Just makes me more grateful we have Gail and Norm.”
100% agree. But I would add James from Megacancer, who also knows economical/ecological collapse is inevitable and human extinction almost a certainty.
“inevitable”
“almost”
“certainty”
Some of my favorite words in the english language. They should be nailed to the walls here so that everyone can see them before they type a comment. Combining them all in the same sentence should be frowned upon.
Nothing against you personally JMS. Just I get tired of so much “certainty” – especially from so called “experts”.
Honestly, I don’t get your point, maybe because english is not my native language.
Why shouldnt we be allowed to combine those three words in the same sentence?
Let me try again: “If I was to compete with Usain Bolt in a 100 meters race, defeat would be inevitable, and a knee injury would be almost a certainty.” What’s wrong with this?
Also, I don’t claim “expertise” anywhere in my comment.
Sorry if I gave you the wrong impression. I thought I was clear enough about what I meant to draw attention to.
It’s not about you. Or your choice of words. I am in awe at how easily commenters here and elsewhere make statements about the future without recourse to the slightest hint of humility.
Many on this blog remind me of Singularitarians – undeterred certainty, hubris, even arrogance in the face of scepticism when talking about future events – the only difference is the way they believe events will unfold – either uber optimism or uber pessimism.
For example if you listen to a Kurzweil talk – even today – he will never used words that express doubt or possible failure. His ideas WILL happen. You WILL merge with machines. We ARE creating a synthetic god.
It’s not the words themselves. It’s the lack of humility that bothers me.
On the other hand if you listen to conversations with respected physicists many are reluctanct to make predictions about the future. They are usually very humble about such topics. Many will simply say… we don’t know. And I respect that a lot.
Oh… and good old Usain could trip or suffer a heart attack before reaching the finish line allowing you win. So no, not inevitable, not an impossibility, just extremely unlikely.
Ya but they are not gods. You are comparing gold to lead.
In all seriousness… the conclusions that we have reached here.,.. even Beavis and Butthead… or Borat… would be made to understand that we are correct.
Fast Collapse is guaranteed at some point.
Extinction due primarily to starvation and spent fuel ponds is virtually guaranteed (violence and disease will also play big roles) – at least based on the facts we have in front of us (now maybe the Elders have worked out a way to grow food in ruined soil that they have not told us about — and maybe they have a way to control spent fuel ponds that they have not told us about — but based on the facts in front of us now — the verdict must weigh in favour extinction)
… possibly maybe
‘without recourse to the slightest hint of humility’
Humility – what’s that?
Van, I find myself asking the same question: Why are smart guys so stupid?
And while I don’t claim to have an answer, the question puts me in mind of two quotations.
The first,and ancient chestnut from Lao Tzu, is:
“Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.”
And the second, from Lou Reed, is:
“You can’t depend on a wise man. You can’t find ’em because they’re not there.”
The latter is from Busload of Faith, one of Lou’s starkest and most iconoclastic songs.
https://youtu.be/wBIlehYpdwk
Keith… the bell please
‘Tim Morgan has the energy background right, he doesnt much like to talk about the hard reset option, and what that will imply. Wonder why?’
I am not sure what Tim does for a living these days but no doubt if laying out the totality of his views would jeopardize his career options….
Kunstler is a novelist and amusing satirist when he gets going, and has books to sell.
Orlov is a satirist and Russian propagandist, and has books to sell. He got a Russian passport for his son in return for his services, which I think a fair deal and one I would take if hedging bets for my family.
The Archdruid is an ego-centric madman magician, and has books to sell.
Although it was amusing when the Archdruid rather lost it recently, told his readers that the ‘stair-step decline’, to be survived by brewing beer and gardening, would be horribly violent and nasty. One could see how shocked they all were.
And then he stopped his posts and left them unplugged, bleating for their bearded and robed leader, commenting even when it was clear that he wasn’t going to answer on that site anymore.
Gail, our kind host, tells some very uncomfortable truths and…….has NO book to sell.
Kunstler’s most recent post is interesting on the reality of publishing on this subject: ‘dark’ themes in a realistic setting are not particularly welcome, and his old publisher has dumped him, which is rather tough on the old boy.
Writing on themes publishers want is a major issue. I know I have been told very explicitly what kinds of themes are acceptable. The themes I write about are not acceptable to most publishers.
I probably could put together a self-published book and sell it through a company that handles self-published books. It would be hard to get stores to carry the book, unless the book had a happy-ever-after ending.
lol—i can agree there
lying optimism outsells truth by several hundred to one–i don’t like bad news either–who does?
Gail, you should definitely look into self pub. You certainly dont need much help other than beta readers, some help with editing and a suitable cover.
Scrivener writing software comes in handy. Easy format and upload to amazon etc.
99 designs for a cover although probably more suited for novels. Your needs would probably not even require such a service. Just look for help on Fiver etc.
Electronic sales and reach far outweighs physical stores and books. A lot of self pub writers do not bother with print on demand unless they have a special need to see their book in print.
Of course you could publish the whole book online and / or offer it as a pdf download etc either for free or in exchange for a subscription or for a fee that you control – whatever suits your needs.
You may have sufficient eyeballs on this blog to simply offer your books to your readers directly. One of the reasons others need the discovery “services” of amazon etc is because they dont have their own platform with a sufficient number of “customers”.
All the best,
Buzz Lightyear
i found createspace quick and easy, as was using kindle
Norman, I agree.
Not much reason why Gail hasn’t already done this. I understand there may be a problem with managing the inclusion of a large number of images i.e. graphs and so on. Did you have images in your book?
no i havent used images in my book—not always easy to manage in createspace , but i might be wrong
and you absolutely do not make enough money from publishing in this field to justify the time involved—i just look on it as an interest to stave off alzheimers.
Dementia can be a good thing … it can serve to simplify a very complicated and stressful world…
Madame Fast volunteers her signing talents to entertain octogenarians at a local home that is mostly filled with dementia sufferers…
I keep telling her not to bother learning all these golden oldies — all she needs to do is learn one song … take a 30 second break … then sing the same song again — rinse repeat for half an hour…. take a bow … and head off.
One nice song – one good book — one outstanding movie — pizza for every meal finished with Haagen Daz….
Perfection….
she’s probably saving a place for you
though i had to read it three times before i got “signing talents” there
She’s quite good at making signs too… the elderly love her sign-making classes.
she must be hard at work making ”keep out” signs for post bau
useful lady—you must treasure her
We are going to have some weapons training on the weekend… starting with a .22
“i just look on it as an interest to stave off alzheimers.”
Well Norman by the consistent quality of your comments and your sharp wit, it looks like it’s working 🙂
Anything to fill the time I guess… in between the nurse visits. Beats staring at the patterns in the padded walls.
I dont see a point in publishing FW… the situation is fluid…. the web is the perfect platform for this.
I see a point to your point…
This blog already gets the job done.
Maybe increase posting rate with shorter posts or allow guest posts?
And of course… if anyone here really believes collapse is near… then what’s the point?
Greer makes some interesting points—but like you I’m always suspicious of anyone calling himself an arch druid
I rather liked the Druid handle: but his intolerance of dissent put me off his blog, as it made it into a fan club. His ‘go away and study until you realise I am right’ attitude is somewhat ridiculous.
We are dealing with hypotheses: ridiculous ones can been thrown out, but there is much room -to say the least! – for debate and observation.
I shall now insert myself in a Sphere Of Protection to ward off his curses. Now, where’s the instruction book…..
I probably am the only one not trying (very hard) to make a living off the subject of our energy-related problems. The actuarial profession pays well, and I have always lived considerably below what I could theoretically afford. I also have a working husband, and grown children who are self-supporting.
Martenson has a small staff (“Adam”) and a family, I believe. Orlov has a wife and little boy. JMG is married (or at least used to be–I haven’t had the opportunity to talk to him in person recently), and has no children. JMG also keeps up a presence as the head Druid, in a religious organization of Druids–hence the “Arch Druid” name. Kunstler has had various girl friends, and I remember reading about a new relationship a while back. It seems to me that he has some health issues, too.
Gail
This prompts me to ask a question I have often wondered about: Why are the prominent people in the collapse community almost exclusively from the USA?
Apart from yourself, off the top of my head I can think of Dave Cohen, John Michael Greer, Richard Heinberg, James (from Megacancer), Derrick Jensen, James Howard Kunstler, Tom Lewis, Guy McPherson, Dimitri Orlov, RE, Mike Ruppert and Gail Zawacki. I can’t think of hardly anyone from outside of the USA hosting a collapse blog, not even from the rest of the English speaking world.
Any thoughts on this? (Anyone else please feel free to chip in.)
Maybe because they are in the eye of the storm of the decay brought on by IC 😉
My impression is they are fairing rather better than most other places so far, but they do have a greater height to fall from.
Some may be on the list due to that famous American entrepreneurial spirit, but obviously not all.
Maybe we are not aware of them.
There certainly are some “peak oil” related blogs. There is Antonio Turiel, writing in Spanish. He calls his site “The Oil Crash.” http://crashoil.blogspot.jp
There is also Matthieu Auzanneau, an author who writes in French. He publishes a blog in the paper Le Monde. http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr
Euan Mearns writes in Scotland in English about the futility of renewables. He calls his blog “Energy Matters.” http://euanmearns.com
The Peak Oil movement was to a significant extent European originally.
Also, quite a bit of research on dissipative structures has been European.
Maybe Collapse is more of an American twist on the subject. There is still an awfully lot of “peak oil” belief around.
Ugo Bardi?
In fact, wasnt it the whole club of rome surge that got this “movement” under way back in the 60s?
The “movement” of course includes peak oil, climate change, environmental degradation and overpopulation.
Founders: David Rockefeller, Aurelio Peccei, Alexander King
Latest book:
http://www.dw.com/en/club-of-romes-new-book-reads-like-an-eco-manifesto/a-19549957
“A renowned think tank is calling for a radical shift in solving the world’s problems. Among other things, countries should slow down economic growth to only 1 percent, and promote a one-child policy. Wishful thinking?”
I don’t believe for a second that the club of rome and other think tanks are unaware of the possibility of total collapse. The most prominent think tanks in the world believe their is a future for human civ in one form or another.
There is peak oil, and climate change site in Poland (ziemianarozdrozu.pl means “earth at the crossroads”), but the author promotes renewables very much. He also wrote two books, I have this one: http://www.soniadraga.pl/materialy/prod/big/1032.jpg (cool cover :))
Piero San Giorgio is Swiss. I imagine there are others in Europe, but they may not necessarily be published in English.
Maybe also because:
“When you’re born, you get a ticket to the freak show. When you’re born in America, you get a front-row seat.” -George Carlin
Surely the Kingdom of DelusiSTAN could see fit to pay all of their spokesman decent salaries….
We’re not talking private jet level stipends here…. just enough for pizza and beer … and a nice new dress for the missus from time to time…. throw in a free internet connection….
Druid must have been spending too much time on FW…. and now he is spooked by the fuel ponds…
To be fair there are likely several dividing lines among the people you have listed.
For example, all of them supposedly run (or could) tend a garden to some extent. I’d expect Martenson has got most of the JIT dependent equipment there (electric pumps, solar, controllers for everything, fertilizer inputs, contractors, ..), while Kunstler has got only a very small hobby plot and shops regularly in various special foodies places. So only Greer and Orlov could perhaps somewhat blend best into some agrarian setup..
That being said, there are many smart guys, who are simply not known to public, as FE often mentions, people like “Bernank” and guys around such circles most likely get the importance why the global system must keep on printing at least ~1T bucks 4x per year just to feed the beast and JITs running..
While the music plays, we must continue to dance.. it’s as simple as that.
During past several weeks, suddenly out of the blue, almost like “a divine joke” several systems failed at my place. Not fun in the spring – early summer season at all, almost a day light horror, only combination of my resources, JIT supplies and network of locals helped to restore it. I did expect something similar definitely occurring someday, as we all fight entropy daily to some degree, it’s sobering, yet revealing experience. However, I’d not alter the timing on my general line of predictions here, there is still lot of the countries and people to be pushed out of the wagon prior to the systemic derailment.
Worldof
Interesting to read that the failures shocked you, even though you were mentally prepared for some such eventuality. Glad it was resolved.
On a wider view, I am sure that there is a core of people -not that many though – in intelligence, the military and perhaps finance who do truly grasp this issue, above all the coming energy shocks, but I suspect many still have residual faith in technological salvation, and many also see only a part of the picture related to their specialism.
The ones in finance are probably the most naive of all in terms of physical realities, but know that the debt machine has to be kept running at all costs.
‘Green Radical Left ‘ revolutionaries who think that something called Capitalism has to be killed in order to save the Earth are the most pathetically ill-informed of all. They still want industrialism as far as I can see, or its fruits.
That is the main reason anything that takes fuel or electricity does not interest me. It will all fail. Better to just learn to live without it or find solutions that do not require it.
Exactly, but the leverage and convenience these toys still provide (now + immediate albeit not likely extended future) make for supporting crutches and virtual staffers..
Lessening and side stepping this over dependence to a degree is worthwhile struggle.
And even for the animal power (and old school seasonal renewables) one needs to have operational the overall extended network “family” of specialists doing the breading and tool-implements anyway, who are also dipped into the JITs to some extended..
There are and will be no winners, only jockeying for the relative position of lesser struggle-pain, therefore from it follows the observation of relative winners. This might be too much of a shallow prize for some people though, apart from very brief moments of happiness and close proximity interaction with nature.
Thanks. Good observations, I’m afraid the situation inside cities will again bubble up along these dividing lines. Hopefully this time they will be too weak (both in ideology and mussels) to project power and delusional concepts outwards the cities as in other previous “revolutionary” epochs..
Orlov’s (latest) book tells is like it is (mostly). His public stuff I think is more just trying to get the internet to pay a little.
The parade of idiots ruling us continues:
Trump’s Expected Pick for Top USDA Scientist Is Not a Scientist
Sam Clovis likely to be named undersecretary of the USDA department that manages research on everything from climate change to nutrition.
https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-expected-pick-for-top-usda-scientist-is-not-a-scientist
Why we are doomed in charts.
It doesn’t matter if we get energy from gas, oil, coal or capture it from wind, solar or hydro. If we continue to increase our energy consumption at an annualized rate of 2.3% the surface of the Earth will be 212F (boiling due to radiative transfer alone not C02).
Here are two charts that shows the trajectory of a 2.3% annual growth in energy consumption. The first shows total power consumed (note that in 1400 years we consume the equivalent energy that the Sun produces). Below that is a chart that shows the temperature of Earth’s surface as it tried to radiate all the waste heat to space:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/galaxy-1024×768.png
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/tmp-1024×768.png
From:
https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2011/07/galactic-scale-energy/
I don’t understand why you bother with this … we are going to Mars!
I know, I know. But, I want to be prepared for “Who Wants To Be A Millionaire- Mars version”. It will make a neat trivia question: At current energy growth rates, Earth’s surface will reach the boil point at what time from now: A. 100 years B. 200 years C. 400 years or D: 1000 years. I won’t have to phone a friend, I’ll know right away and be rich and living the good life on Mars with Teslas and Jeeps. The infrastructure on Mars is ready and awaits us. Unicorns and fairy dust awaits all who believe.
Remember: your pet unicorn is for life, not just Christmas.
Perhaps we should be glad this fairy tale has been invented, it’s the perfect pacifier for the young who would otherwise come over all revolutionary.
By the time they realise that it isn’t going to come to pass, they will be 40 with health problems from sitting around staring at glowing screens, totally sapped will-power, and no energy left to cause trouble.
The Elders have it all figured out…. except the part about there being no more affordable oil…
“The Elders” must have arranged for the population explosion, for without it the unprecedented economic growth and exponential FF use since the Great Depression would not have taken place.
If they had no answer for unaffordable oil, then they should have used their powers ti inhibit the population explosion.
I am afraid the Elders, as you imply, simply do what the voters and businesses want them to do. It is a self-organized system. Everyone looks after their own interests, plus the interests that allow them to remain in power.
They have no real power, except the power given them by the self-organized system.
Yeah Gail I was being facetious.
Agreed.
It’s like Tom Brady the quarterback who won the super bowl and is considered by many to be the greatest ever…. that was always going to happen… or it wasn’t.
But it did.
The system ensures that the fittest reach the top.
If the Elders were not the fittest then they would have dropped off along the way…. and some other entity would be at the top.
If Tom Brady were not the fittest he would never have made it to the NFL.
We are all driven to compete. Tom was born 6’3″ with a strong arm and a good mind — into an environment conducive to becoming a pro athlete… if he would have been born in a small village in Afghanistan … he would be a farmer… or maybe have been shot dead by an American soldier.
Nihilism… is logical.
Ahh, but you see, if we just all settle out in space or on mars, problem solved! Also, you will be able to drive a Tesla jeep on Mars which will be amazing.
Within 1400 years we need to tabby-star the sun.
It is a good thing (his holiness) Elon Musk wasn’t born 400 years sooner or the surface temperatures of our lovely little planet would be at the boiling point of water right now. Whew, dodge a bullet there.
Great link thanks Greg. Pretty much caps the limitless free energy meme.
1969 — US: Battle for People’s Park, fought against the University of California & the police in Berkeley, California, who had fenced the area off in the middle of the night:
Beloved & Respected Comrade Bad Actor Governor & Future President of the United States Ronald Reagan sends in National Guard to reclaim People’s Park in Berkeley, California.
Police gunfire kills a bystander, James Rector, & wounds 60, including Alan Blanchard, blinded for life.
17 days of street fighting ensue, capped by a march of 30,000, where another 150 demonstrators are shot & wounded.
‘If there has to be a bloodbath then let’s get it over with’.
— Ronald Reagan
(I was there)
Reagan would have been seen as an angel, and the masses will experience this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1IK_cchA30
(Few people now know what Omdurman was, but I do.)
The Trouble With Infrastructure:
https://resourceinsights.blogspot.nl/2017/05/the-trouble-with-infrastructure.html
Good article. I like this:
“To keep things from degrading to the point where they cannot function requires resources, labor and money–all of which cannot be spent on new infrastructure or productive investment, that is, all of which must go to maintain what we have rather than grow the economy.”
This is what many people miss. All folks see is innovation and growth. Like innovation is additive. Once its build it lasts forever. They competently miss the energy and resources embedded in our infrastructure. And the on-going stream of energy and resources it takes to keep the infrastructure functioning.
And then you have some folks (Elon I am talking to you) that think we can change and completely rebuild our infrastructure even while all our energy is spent maintaining what we already have.
Great link and read Duncan. The more we build and expand modern world for economic expansion and growth, time degrades and requires maintenance and replacement.
A Sisyphus ordeal and we are seeing the results at a time of the crest of available resource extractionl!
That’s why people don’t work less hours than 20, or 30 years ago, despite economic growth, and better technology. We have to work, just to maintain what we have.
Millions of waiting staff could be put out of work tomorrow. No need for expensive or complex machinery. Most restaurants and cafes could be self service. I never see anyone at the airport or train station complaining about having to pick up a tray and load up their own food and drinks.
And that’s just one example.
But then I don’t see cafes and restaurants as necessary. I mean I like using them occasionally but I don’t see why our existence has to depend on the continuation of such ‘frivolous’ activities.
It’s my belief that most of what we do as a species is wasteful and unnecessary. I also believe that economic growth is unnecesary. It’s a glitch in the operating system, nothing more.
Even if the spectre of global economic collapse was not hovering over us, the impending deployment of automation upgrades across almost every industry in existence would cause unsustainable levels of unemployment worldwide. And this time there would be nowhere for the displaced human workers to run. The only option would be early retirement and to gradually remove the life support.
I still believe that what we’re seeing / experiencing is a process of transformation. What comes next is unimaginable and so almost everyone dismisses it. It helps to not view the proceedings as either positive or negative but simply the continuation of some form of intelligence through natural selection. Of course, it can also go the other way but I’m not seeing that.
What is evident is that people tend to view the situation from their own personal perspective or that of a larger group of human beings and guage the possible outcomes as beneficial or not.
My view is that nature doesn’t care about us, but some of our kind value intelligence and would like for it to continue in some form even if much of current humanity gets left behind.
In other words, what we’re really facing is human obsolescence. The human remnant will be subsumed into whatever replaces it.
The things we do sometimes appear to be wasteful and unnecessary but they really are part of what makes us human, so I think you neglect the fact that humans are social animals. We absolutely must have the various social interactions to actually develop and become human. Up until about 6 months of age, newborns can recover from all kinds of deprivation but after that, various forms and grades of damage emerge from immediately to later in life. That’s why we dine together, party and socialise in many different ways from colleagues at work, fellow inmates, soldiers at war to husbands and wives.
A couple of books to get you started:
The Self Illusion: How the social brain creates identity.
The Self Illusion: Why there is no “you” inside your head.
Bruce Hood. Available on Amazon.
He doesn’t deny there is a self, it’s just not as we think we understand it.
Sapiens: A brief history of humankind. Is another good book.
Not all humans are social animals.
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/feb/29/city-life-more-less-lonely-loneliness-cities-share-stories
Some of the greatest human thinkers were hermits.
The latest technologies move human social behaviour to digital platforms so that machines can track and learn from human interactions.
In the same way that surgeons are teaching the surgical robots how to eventually perform complex surgeries on their own, data centers and supercomputers are learning to carry out all kinds of interactions that will one day allow the global superorganism to function entirely autonomously… without humans.
Our digital offspring will not have to cater to the needs of drug addicted apes, will not have to adhere to the ritualistic traditions embedded in the reptilian brain, or drown themselves in all manner of entertainments required to balance the encroaching insanity of the masses.
No, whatever emerges out of this morass will be free of the baggage of millions of years of biological happenstance. The path will be cleared for a resilient, long lasting, enlightened form of life that colonizes the solar system and beyond.
If you dig deep enough you realise the only guiding principle is expansion into the surrounding environment. That’s it. There is no other goal. It’s the first principle of survival – Go forth and multiply.
The human species is the second stage in an evolutionary rocket comprising three stages. The first stage was everything that got us this far and the final stage will continue as the second stage is released and allowed to burn up in the atmosphere.
You could say that the global superorganism that we are collectively bringing forth will continue with human traits and certainly all of our knowledge since this is precisely the way in which this organism is being trained. We are simultaneously training the “machine” to cater to our human needs and its own needs.
The thing is the observant among our species are already aware that the balance is tipping in favor of the “machine.” We already know that the immense collection of data and the increasing ability of machines to learn and carry out actions autonomously is not for the purpose of serving consumers better targeted advertising. The “machine” is learning techniques and behaviours that will better help it survive and propagate according to its utility function.
If the Machine can’t make it to the next level on its own for some reason then further hybridisation will be required – a merger of the most relevant, indispensable human qualities with the properties and superior adaptability of the emergent superorganism.
I understand why humans would feel a little sadness when faced with this prospect. They really did believe that they were the centre of the universe. They truly believed that flesh and bone and DNA were the most resilient carriers for life and that machines would serve them as human slaves once did.
Unfortunately, nature had other plans and humans were merely a stepping stone to something better and once the biological robots known as humans have served their purpose they will fade into the background noise of the universe as if they had never existed.
I beg to differ. ALL humans are “social animals” as has been proven with infanthumans and experimental animal as in monkeys and rats.
In an ideal world… possibly
loner
ˈləʊnə/
noun
plural noun: loners
a person that prefers not to associate with others.
“my interest in birdwatching had made me a bit of a loner”
synonyms: recluse, introvert, lone wolf, hermit, solitary, misanthrope, outsider; More
maverick, nonconformist, individual;
hikikomori;
rareeremite, cenobite, anchorite, stylite, solitudinarian
“I don’t want my child to turn into an antisocial loner”
Translate loners to
Use over time for: loners
Translations, word origin, and more definitions
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Loner – Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loner
A loner is a person who avoids or does not actively seek human interaction. There are many reasons for solitude, intentional or otherwise. Intentional reasons include being introverted, and spiritual, mystic, or religious considerations or personal philosophies.
Why do some people become loners? What type of people become …
https://www.quora.com/Why-do-some-people-become-loners-What-type-of-people-b…
For the following reasons: 1. They are incredibly self sufficient and indipendent. 2. Because of this reason they are completely Ok not having any friends. 3. Its difficult …
Humans MUST be socialised early in life. Without it they cannot or are unable to develop the ability to “become a loner”. You need to read more than a dictionary.
Or maybe because they know that 99.99999999% of all people are idiots and cannot tolerate having to engage in delusional small talk in order to belong…. having to not say what one things for risk of offending green sensibilities…
I increasingly have very little interest in mixing with other people (other than with fellow gods here on FW)…. if it were not for Madame Fast — who enjoys the company of DelusiSTANIS in spite of their feebleness and insists that we make an effort… I would have virtually no humand contact beyond a wave to a neighbour as I drove past them on the road.
I much prefer my books … my internet research … my quest for truth…
If I did not have Madame Fast… I would make an exception for a harem…. that would not involve small talk….
Anyone who’s ever bought a boat or plane has learned this lesson. They just never thought it applied to the roads and bridges and buildings.
https://www.wired.com/2017/05/trees-will-die-will/
Guy and Greg related?
Yep, I wondered too…
Now that the Gman and pm are gone, we need someone new. Someone who believes in colonizing space. That will solve all our problems. In fact, if we could get about 10,000 people into space at a tremendous expense, why then everything would be fine! They could beam back solar power and beam up Scottie.
https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/05/towards-an-economically-viable-roadmap-to-large-scale-space-colonization.html
I’m still getting over the comment about Einstein and uranium.
Comments like that have me wishing for a sooner and more rapid collapse.
i think it was a typo
he meant to say uranus
I hear your pain. Inventing elements on the periodic table is quite a feat. Even Mendelev didn’t attempt that.
Just visit your Facebook timeline. 🙂 There’s no end to ignorance and wishful thinking there. Perhaps run an ad, inviting these dodos to come and try their dumb luck on the intellectual killing floor that is OFW.
What casual commenters on OFW who have not spent a lot of time here don’t understand is that we regulars who have been here for years did not start off “negative”. At the beginning, when you are just starting to find out about our global predicament, you start by exploring renewables, changing your own ways to try to save the planet and all that useless stuff (which you don’t know is useless..yet)…as you go deeper into the rabbit hole and read more on all the topics concerning our predicament (not just on OFW) you realize that here is absolutely no solution to our predicament..our global system runs on a software that constantly needs growth or it collapses and at that point no amount of resources left can save us as the software that runs the whole IC show has failed..in other words put simply as OFW states: Infinite growth on a finite planet is impossible…and yet there is nothing to replace growth that would save us (and even if it could, renewables are not really renewable and there is not even close to enough resources to build out a renewable world which in any case needs the master resource that underpins EVERYTHING, which is conventional oil!! )
When you have finally opened your eyes to the totality of our predicament, about the only place on the web where you can find like-minded people who have come to the same conclusion is…you guessed it it’s…OFW 🙂
I started of very positive indeed: when PM Cameron displayed his roof-mounted personal wind-turbine (prototype), I thought: ‘Wow! I simply must have one of those!’
I have great sympathy for clueless people, having been one for most of my life…..
Indeed, in this situation…
https://media.giphy.com/media/M3fYVlu7YN9Hq/giphy.gif
Can we take a pill and go back in the Matrix? 😉
I’m joking though I am very happy I am aware vs all these masses of clueless people, even if it’s not exactly uplifting knowledge in any way.
As Carl Sagan once said:
“For me, it is far better to grasp the Universe as it really is than to persist in delusion, however satisfying and reassuring.”
“Where ignorance is bliss, ’tis folly to be wise.”- Thomas Gray
If one has the right mind-set … FW is the ultimate resource…. because there are quite a few people here sharing door-opening links … which saves curious people who may not have the time to find them…
Then of course there are Gail’s articles.
I didn’t start off as positive as many people here, perhaps because I feel like the conclusions Gail has reached have been self-evident ever since my wonderful 1980s –
1990s environmentally friendly education gave me the definition of the term “non-renewable resource.” I can clearly remember wondering one day in school, “If we make things out of all of our non-renewable resources, and those things get used up and thrown away, won’t all those resources end up in landfills?” Yeah, I never really did denial.
The thing that makes our predicament self-evident, in my opinion, is that if we don’t run out of oil (or lose our economic ability to extract it), we WILL run out of something else. We will exhaust our clean air, our water, our space . . . something. The nature of living in a “finite world” is that energy is only one of the necessities we could exhaust. If nothing else, at some point we would run out of the space or resources to dispose of our own waste. I imagine energy could solve some of those problems if it were infinite, but some of them would remain nonetheless. The crux of the problem is that we are using up our niche — in more ways than one — faster than it can replenish itself.
Sorry to hear that you have known about our predicament for so long 🙂 Ignorance for me was bliss (until 2008 hit, although sub-consciously I knew something was not right for many years before that…I remember questioning (when I started in the finance industry in ’96) how crazy it seemed that companies had to grow their revenues every.single.quarter!!)
I agree with you (like I said in an earlier post) we were effed no matter what, even if we did have infinite resources (all it would do is collapse the biosphere even sooner)…when we learned to control fire, it enabled us to work our way around the checks and balances set out by nature, thus growing our numbers “artificially” (and moving all over the world, because of our increasing numbers)…when that happened it was game over…it took a while but here we are!
It took me a while to realize the full *implications* of finite resources. As an adolescent I was always fascinated by things like cheap party favor toys made in the orient. I always wondered, if oil is such a precious resource that we fight over it, why are we making it into bendy lizards and whistles that don’t even make noise? I guess you could say I have an odd talent for seeing the consequences of actions two or three steps down the line, a gift which is more of a curse a lot of the time. I learned quickly that greed motivated people to commit a lot of actions that were nonsensical in the long term.
I have also read a lot about certain disasters like Chernobyl and Love Canal. There are only so many times we can have accidents like that on a finite planet. Eventually we will make our own biosphere uninhabitable. We just rope it off and chalk it up to a loss now. But all it would take would be ONE industrial chemical (or radioactive substance) being spilled over a large portion of land or water to really mess up the works. And these days, when we mess things up, we make sure the mess sticks for thousands upon thousands of years.
I am still not sold on 100% probability of human extinction, but the only “solution” (if you can call it that) to our predicament is fewer humans. Anything else is a band-aid on a bullet wound. If we keep making more of us, we might manage to eat/poop every digestible substance within reach. If you want to be amused/horrified, look up the carbon footprint of your average Western baby sometime.
You seem to have caught on early!
Yes some people are gifted/cursed with the ability to take a concept and run the implications of it all the way through. Most doomers have this ability I guess. I think I might have passed it on to my 5 year old daughter, she always asks questions about what happens when we get old, what happens when we die, when will I die etc… I don’t want her to worry too much so I just tell her that she will live to be one hundred years old. And then die.
Did we really ever learn to control Fire?
that was always one of my main points in all this
one can imagine so fur clad guy 1m years ago:
“We’re gonna need a bigger fire”
Most people can’t grasp the fact that we are animals adapted to a specific niche which, as you rightly say, we are degrading to the point of ruin.
Culturally, to call someone as animal is a grave insult.
Except for ‘party animal’, which sums our species up rather well: partying (some of us at least) at the expense of the Earth…..
We humans have learned to use energy from burning fuels (wood, peat, and later fossil fuels) to supplement the energy we get from food. This gives us a considerable advantage over other animals.
There are some things that we do that are similar to things other animals do. We make tools, like other animals, but the use of fuels allows us to make much “better tools.” We make use of the services of other plants and animals, but some other animals do this as well. We make use of division of labor, but many animals and insects do this as well.
It is the use of supplemental energy that has allowed us to have bigger brains, compared to other animals, and to dominate our niche. Our metabolism is relatively higher than that of other animals. With our use of supplemental energy, we really are different.
Change the software.
Oh and while you’re at it change the hardware too.
In fact you could change the way you do things so much as to be unrecognizable to a current homo cyberneticus.
Requires some top down bullying? Or a lot of it? So be it. Survive or perish is a blunt tool but even the most attached to their baubles will get it.
Infinite growth? Not necessary. The Solar System will suffice.
http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2017/05/moon-as-unprospected-eighth-continent-that-will-produce-trillionaires.html
The author needs to listen to Prof. Al Bartlett’s lecture on the exponential function (available on YouTube), but I seriously doubt he would understand it.
A few years ago, I thought solar and winded powered technocracy was the answer.
I also briefly subscribed to Austrian economics: I believed the prevailing hype about the BRIC countries, and how debt was useless and bad.
I believed those things because a lot of authority figures were saying so and I believed if that things were really bleak, we would have heard something about it, like we heard something about climate change.
What I do know is that I can’t remember the last time I believed something – like the things you mentioned – and didn’t immediately dump them in the “probably not going to happen” pile.
And that’s why I console myself with reading Next Big Future articles and comments. I really, really enjoy science fiction and fantasy!
Which begs the question …
If climate change is caused by humans…
And there is no way to stop it without collapsing BAU…
Then why does the MSM endlessly rail against climate change…
Why don’t they just completely ignore the subject.
If they had done that it would have never been a subject to begin with.
The tree would have fallen — but CNN did not broadcast it — so it made no noise. Therefore it did not happen
Therefore the fact that they have made it a hot subject — makes you wonder what the agenda is….
No doubt is somehow ties into the other pillars of renewable delusion – Tesla… solar/wind power… aimed at calming the sheeple… at distracting them….
Climate change is a more convenient topic to talk about than diminishing returns with respect to energy extraction. It sounds like a relatively distant subject that we can perhaps do something about.
In the name of Tesla, Solar/Wind and Global Warming. Ahmen.
Praise be to Elon.
So… post BAU…. the only survivors are former bankers …. because as we know all bankers have a fair bit of cockroach DNA in them — which makes them immune to radiation poisoning…
They take as their god Elon … they spend their time searching dragging Teslas and solar panels to ‘Mecca’ … they declare Jihad on anyone who dares to suggest that Elon was a false prophet…
And they dream of some day moving to Mars where there are virgins… milk… and honey.
Swap out the box… replace with Teslas…
http://i.huffpost.com/gen/3939180/images/o-MECCA-facebook.jpg
FW… the gathering place of the gods…. TGPOTG
‘intellectual killing floor’ ++++++
Where pea-brained DelusiTANIS come to be slaughtered… then ground up into dog food…
http://suresystemsintl.com/mado_prodimages/industrialgrinders/GIGANT%20FROZEN%20MEAT%20GRINDER%20MEW%20734_n.jpg
I was just going to post that link in response to your comment!
I was also going to offer my services as that “someone new.”
This comment section just wouldn’t be the same without all the back and forth between noobs and established instadooomers.
But the job is a little too easy. A steady stream of links to the latest Next Big Future posts would suffice to trigger the locals.
As an idependent observer I track all views and am managing to sit comfortably on the fence until the hammer drops. What happens next is anyones guess IMHO.
if you’re sitting on a fence when the hammer drops you might end up with a split personality
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂
i want to ask ofw that why music and movies quantity has gone down since cold war ending
i give some example of music
from this
https://youtu.be/YkADj0TPrJA
this biggest hit of of 1981
to this
https://youtu.be/oyEuk8j8imI
this was biggest hit of 2016
That is so funny you would mention that….just this morning I was telling a client who I was having breakfast at a restaurant (with 80s music playing in the background) if she had ever noticed that more often than not, in shopping malls and restaurants across North America (and I imagine Europe as well), it’s 80s music playing in the background..it’s something that I have noticed since the 90s and is still true 25 years later…I have always tried to explain to myself why that is and I think part of it is that of all the past 5 decades, 80s music is the least intrusive, so fitting for background music..moreover though, I think it must be related to the fact that we probably hit “Peak Creativity” in the 80s and on a subliminal level we want to return to that bygone era (where decline was just starting to set in, having started in the 70s) where the majority still had enough income to have a decent life for themselves and their family..(and in the US a longing for many of Ronald “Morning in America” Reagan days)…
“I was having breakfast at a restaurant (with 80s music playing in the background) if she had ever noticed that more often than not, in shopping malls and restaurants across North America (and I imagine Europe as well), it’s 80s music playing in the background..”
I’ve seen them rotate in modern music, but the only thing they play is that upbeat acoustic music that involves a lot of whistling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdWfzs0O96g
This is also the kind of background music featured for many commercials for pharmaceutical products. It sounds “indie” and authentic,
“I think it must be related to the fact that we probably hit “Peak Creativity” in the 80s and on a subliminal level we want to return to that bygone era ”
It’s just not music, it’s many entertainment fields:
With movies, the peak in creative content seem to have occurred much closer to the peak global economic growth, which was between the 1940s to the 1970s. (I didn’t notice a decline in movie quality until the late 1990s)
I remember seeing a program that attributed, by movie critics, that the downward shift in quality to movies and television broadening their appeal to those below the upper classes.
Someone made a comment about the kinds of people seen on ‘talk shows’ such as Maury being a minority of the general U.S. population in the 1990s to becoming a majority in the mid. to late 2000s. That may be their opinion, but the popularity of low-brow reality where people “act out” tv may be a reflection of the general public.
Although, I doubt that is the case.
According to MSM, TV is experiencing a Golden Age because of the offerings from Netflix and Amazon but I wouldn’t know it since I’m too busy with my 15-hour work week and rocket jet pack to comb through all the offerings.
I would say the 90s were the worst, but I am wrong
https://www.overthinkingit.com/2008/09/23/the-hubbert-peak-theory-of-rock-or-why-were-all-out-of-good-songs/
I’ve brought the topic of declining music quality up in a previous comments section for one of Gail’s blog entries.
One of my top theories then, was diminishing returns for a musician to invest time and money in mastering a particular skill. I attributed to centralization of the process of recorded music for pop music (at the same time computers were making recording music cheaper). In a world where anyone can record music, marketing, and the polish of a professional hit-maker, is much more important than quality when it comes to making money off of music.
I was read something about the egalitarian/ multicultural nature of Modernism and how it has led to falling standards…and maybe it applies to music: Maybe what Modernism did to Art, is being done to music: If anything can be music then quality, cannot be a major way in which to judge them…whereas a musician’s indulgences, sense of fashion, or political stance is.
If you are correct one hit wonders should be more rare now?
One hit wonder = even a blind hen …
Constructed mega artist = hit after hit, even if it is siht.
The music industry, like the movie industry is increasingly only interested in an audience in the range of 8-22. Unlike move franchises, musicians age out of that ideal audience and public interest in their music shrinks over time. There are rare exceptions, or course, but music careers tend to be very short for most musicians involved in recorded music.
Musicians are seen as replaceable because the hit-making and marketing is done by specialist firms and because of the youth-orientation of the recorded music market.
The last thing anyone wants to be is “old.” It’s a dirty word. It’s a career killer.
Looking at the couple in the Bieber video, I have only two words (or is it three?):
Evolutionary Bottle-neck. 🙂
BTW still remember watching this scene when it first aired with the Phil Collins song…what a classic 🙂 ……. I have to say even though I am fully aware that I am a product of Industrial Civilization, I have to admit I have loved (and still love for the time left) what IC had to offer (even though it came at the cost of a biosphere 4.5 billion years in the making, but without IC, I would not have even known about the earth since I would not have been born, or anybody else on this planet right now for that matter)
One of the best shows ever made!
I can believe in diminishing returns in entertainment biz. Good, original blockbuster movies are fewer and further between. The biggest movies nowadays are sequels/franchises, some of that owes to concentration of wealth / increasing complexity in hollywood I guess…
The bar is pretty high on some tv series though…
Breaking Bad… House of Cards.. Sopranos…Game of Thrones… Simpsons..
Beavis and Butthead!
Working my way through Breaking Bad a second time and its still fresh.
Better Call Saul is good too.
I think Game of Thrones reflects the situation we’re in. Elders fighting over scraps and of course… Winter is coming…
But I’ve always favored The Walking Dead – the most watched cable show – as a fairly accurate depiction of instacollapse and how stragglers would form small groups and larger ones in an attempt to survive against all odds.
Of course there is no mention of spent fuel ponds, cars appear to work fairly well, and teeth miraculously never need any attention.
One thing that is shown at the end of season one is how the CDC bioweapon labs are set to self destruct in an emergency but in the event of a collapse… does it really matter?
If you people think that the music of the 90s was lousy, you are obviously not listeners of jazz. I know that many of you live outside of the continental US, but if you are a resident here, my humble opinion is that you can’t really consider yourself cultured unless you listen to jazz. And a lot of great jazz was produced in the 90s. Just to mention a couple of great artists: Wynton and Branford Marsalis.
https://content.paradoxplaza.com/media/catalog/product/cache/2/image/290x/af097278c5db4767b0fe9bb92fe21690/m/a/macgyver_packshot_final_2.jpg
Soon it will be proven possible.
I wonder how thick those glass domes have to be to reduce the incoming radiation? I also wonder how they eat? Maybe they use Mr. Fusion reactors to convert CO2 + H2O into CH2O + O2, then figured out how to make the charcoal goo into something appetizing to eat? Maybe eat mushrooms?
Bon voyage, FE. Write to us when you get there, you globetrotter.
Half a tanker of jet fuel – at least!
To be quite honest… I am getting rather tired of these long flights – and the pressure of trying to keep BAU alive is really wearing me out … there must be easier ways to burn up carbon that don’t involve jet lag and crummy airline food.
Sadly I have booked in this Malta thing in July already … once that with I am going to have to turn over the Burn to others…
And here we go … loading onto the metal bird for another 12 hour jaunt… to Burn Baby Burn.
Hopefully we hit some really powerful head winds…
Don’t anyone ever say I did not do my best to keep BAU alive a little longer.
I want my tombstone to read:
Fast Eddy RIP – Burner of More Coal Now
I had no idea that Mexico is now a net importer of US oil. That’s kinda scary.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6
Mexico is selling some of its oil exports to countries other than the US. It still uses the US to produce low sulfur diesel. This is a product it needs, if its trucks are to cross the border into the US, and if US trucks entering into Mexico are to fill up on the “right kind” of diesel.
I think what is more important is world-wide, whether Mexico is still a net exporter. As of the last time I looked, it was.
Another rivet pops off the wing!
Read the whole thing.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/05/where-have-all-insects-gone?curator=MediaREDEF
I noticed this same decline in our area about three years ago and did a Google search on it and at the time couldn’t find anything to support the idea of insect pop. declining. Now finally there is at least acknowledgement. But even a few years ago was much different than when I was a kid in the 60′-70’s when there would be huge swarms in Spring of lady bugs, butterflies, dragon flies you name it. On some occasions there were millions of catepillars climbing all over trees, houses, everything. I never see catepillars anymore, but there must be a few because on a rare occasion i’ll see a butterfly. People are killing all that stuff off with pesticides and those bug killing zappers. There was a guy down the street with a super sized bug zapper that was a massive killing machine all night long and after two years most of the large moth species were gone and now there is only one species of very small moths. People love to kill stuff, it’s just in their nature. I crack up when there’s a movie about some species we supposedly are being stalked by. Can you imagine how fast we would kill off anything that posed a danger? But humans keep multiplying as we speak to greater and greater numbers. I wonder if through acidification of oceans and the general destruction of habitat and extinction of other species if 99.999999999% of all species will be extinct except humans numbering in the 10-15 billion range and rising. But people will miss the sound of zapping bugs – oh what a shame!
It’s like the Indian peasant farmer who was asked what in the world he would really like?
‘A machine gun, to kill ALL the animals!’
The other day it was unusually cold here, under a dead sky of low cloud. Not a sign of life, despite all the flowering plants.
I realised then that in a ‘winter’ resulting from a volcanic event, I might well go mad: could I take it if it went on for a year or two? I doubt it.
No changing light, no colour, no insects, no birdsong…..Hell.
I have heard reports of insect loss near the east coast. I have no idea if it is true or not. The fireflies have returned tome area this summer. Nice to see them after such a long absence.
I think a major problem with insect survival is grass lawns. It seems that everyone has to have a perfect green grass lawn. If loss of native plants were not bad enough, homeowners succumb to peer pressure/advertising and apply insecticides and other toxins to their lawns. Presto! No bugs or insects – but then there is little besides grass that is alive at all. No food for birds, bats, etc. I have some untreated grass lawn, some native plants and pretty good insect populations in my yard. There are plenty of pollinators at work recently: honey bees, wasps, hover flies, mason bees, bumblebees, sphinx moths, and so on. I have Eastern phoebes nesting under my porch eaves – they and the bats are better than any bug zapper. I see some little brown bats at night now. https://microbepost.org/2017/03/29/in-new-york-state-bats-are-showing-signs-of-recovery-from-white-nose-syndrome/
It is more than peer pressure. It is often neighborhood covenants. Everything must fit in the same pattern with your neighbors. No clothes lines,play equipment of the right type, in the right place, paint the right color, right mail box, etc.
At night in summer my yard is lit up like the 4th of July with fireflies. Rest of the neighborhood: no fireflies. So far no one has complained about the fireflies.
what about the idea that we are entering an ‘ice age’ could this be the main reason for the decline in numbers.
I don’t think so. The decline in numbers basically reflects the fact that the human lifestyle is crowding out insects. We had already crowded out most large and medium sized animals, as well as reducing the quantity of fish that can be caught from the seas. If you look at fish sizes, they have been dropping for a long time. The only way we can get enough fish now is by farming it, just as we farm land animals. Any animals/insects/birds that are not part of what humans want gets cut out of the picture. Admittedly, the climate is changing too, but I doubt that is a direct cause. The recent direction has been toward higher temperatures.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYRi3ljWwAQUOaL.jpg
https://srsroccoreport.com/the-hills-group-gold-mines-vs-oil-depletion/
The Hills Group has consumer affordability for a barrel of oil in 2020 at $20. That doesn’t even pass the smell test. At present their numbers look right because there is still a glut of oil, and the glut isn’t because people aren’t using it, because the world is using more than ever before, especially all oils. What happened was Canada with their tar sands and the US with fracking added so much oil to the world markets it’s essentially over supplied. It’s in offshore tankers and onshore storage. One way or another the stored oil needs to dwindle to a point in which oil price rises again. Only then will we have actual current day evidence of what the consumer can afford. The consumer could not afford oil north of a hundred a barrel for more than a few years, but certainly can afford oil at a higher price than $20. Somewhere in the middle around 60-70 is probably where it can float for the forseeable future, once the glut is gone.
Metals mining stops when the amount of it per ton is too low to be economically mined, not when the ‘quality’ of it declines too far as the Hills Group explains it. Silver is silver, gold is gold as long as there is enough. Well, there is more than enough oil, so the analogy falls flat, particularly when analyzing US oil production in which there are thousands of small oil ventures that make a whole lot of money. There are more small oil companies in the US than any other country in the world. They wouldn’t do it if it didn’t make money, but it’s a cyclical business in which sometimes it’s lean and sometimes it’s hugely lucrative.
They are doing it because of debt that won’t be paid back.
That oil is expensive oil you #ool. That’s why it’s in storage instead of the functioning economy. How many times do you ignorants have to have it explained. IT IS NOT THE AMOUNT OF OIL…….Its the economic viability. That oil will likely get sold by the receivers for the equivalent of a fire-sale price. The producers being bankrupt, foreclosed and out of business.
The years of fast growing economies on the back of cheap FF’s are long gone. Massive economies, infrastructure and big government cannot be maintained let alone grown. It would take colossal amounts of new, cheap oil to do that. Even the simplist mind should be able put two and two together…..it has always been economically sensible to go after the easiest resource first, be it an ore, trees, fish, whales, gold, diamonds, water, game and most of all energy. The game doesn’t stay the same though because in the good times of wealth and prosperity, population expand into overshoot and consume increasing amounts of EVERY variety of resource, along the way driving species to extinction and polluting and degrading ecosystems.
Cheap at first then more and more expensive, until the resource is mined out or simply beyond viability to produce. Any fool can see heavy contaminated crude, tar sands, deep offshore, fracked shale and Arctic oil is the obvious signs of decline.
I’m not so sure that the current level of economic activity can be considered indicative of what oil price is affordable given that we are in a situation of the economy being supported by very low interest rates. We will need to wait and see what happens when interest rates rise.
Oil extraction rate isn’t higher than two years ago. Why price doesn’t go up? Where’s the demand?
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/i-was-only-pretending-to-be-retarded?full=1
Here are some unintended consequences from going green. Driving coal into bankruptcy leads to environmental pollution. Might be cleaner to burn coal after all.
http://energypost.eu/divestment-will-not-block-german-lignite/
The solution to that is to build more supercomputers and develop artificial intelligence…these very intelligent and attractive machines will work together to develop a solution to environmental pollution.
i want a 3d printer that will print breakfast lunch and dinner every day, and another to sleep 8 hours every night on my behalf so i dont have to break off from commenting on here
….are you suffering from passive phenomenon syndrome?
probably
but ive asked for a second opinion
Norm, i wouldnt bother if i was you…. remember what the grandchildren said!
theyve already clubbed together to buy me a trip to Switzerland.
They haven’t given me a return ticket—should I be suspicious?
….well, Norm, if i have difficulty sleeping i think i might try your book…although i would probably keep myself awake laughing….second thoughts, i dont have access to dispose of that kind of trash…yup, i’ll save me money instead.
Yes – save your money — and use it to buy some intelligence.
…that would cause collapse. ….of Norms book profits. …not very nice is it????
Oh… I think Norman would not mind sacrificing his book profits…. in the interest of you being able to afford a brain….
If you ask — perhaps we might all be willing to make a donation ….
this place is looking more like the yellow brick road every day
I love how folks come on here and accuse us of having flawed opinions. Or we are of closed minds that won’t accept alternate views. Well, diminishing returns is not an opinion it is a fact or nature. The finite nature of resources is not an opinion it is a fact of nature. Limits to growth in a finite world is also not an opinion. An opinion is believing in fairy tails of renewable energy or perpetual motion circular economies. Our economy is fundamentally flawed because it uses finite resources for growth. That is not an opinion it is a fact.
Here is a real buzz killer: A sustained 2.3% growth rate (in energy use) would mean Earth’s surface temperature would be 212F (boiling) in about 400 years from the heat given off by our heat engines alone (not C02 or global warming). Yes the Earth could not radiate the heat of all our heat engines fast enough to space to prevent the planet from literally cooking. https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-physicist/
Haha Greg, just saw your comment after I posted my own which is in the same vein as yours!
What about printing new harem members?
For the sake of never-ending variety….
Good solution it’ll keep on ticking in the absence of an environmentally dependent population. Now that’s progress. 🤓
….no Norm dont be, they will probably 3D print versions of you, and leave dotted around, you know like garden gnomes
Many here believe (are sure) in NTHE.
Some that the can can be kicked very far and then extinction.
Some that the elite can kill of / let die the rest.
Some that we will have a die-off and then stabilize at a level between HG and higher than now.
Some that we will be saved by technology.
Or by aliens.
One by Jesus.
One guy believes we can live happily ever after on cardboard and balcony farming.
PM thinks we can live on conferences and research papers.
…you should tell Gail, she seems to like conferences
. Here’s a quote from a Circular Economy site..
http://circulatenews.org/2017/05/plaxx-converting-plastic-back-into-its-oil-form/
“At the time of writing, the new feedstock from these technologies can only theoretically be converted back into plastics and the economics, energy and technical capabilities to produce material of the same quality is not yet established. Converting plastic waste into oil that is used as fuel is better than landfill, but doesn’t really address the underlying systemic problems, and potentially creates a strange inefficiency where oil (a source of energy) is turned into a material, and then turned back into the fossil fuel, all while using more energy in all parts of the process.”
The article admits at the end that one of their proposal is not practical on any level and makes a crucial point: more energy is needed to recycle materials instead of discarding them.
Where’s that energy going to come from?
You are either a troll or a mentally retarded. Which one is it?
I think he could be both where is that button?
having read the Plaxx article
your Homer Simpson award for innovation is on its way
….just send me the file and i can knock one up on my 3D printer….just think of all that we’ll save.
Why don’t your print yourself a brain while you are at it?
Even if it was made of plastic it would be far superior to whatever it is you are using now
….hey great link,thanks…did you see Finland was mentioned?
….oh very clever…hohoho…yes thats novel, and without doubt vindicates why this blog needed to be deleted
I think this is not the correct place for trolling if you want people to get upset.
At the very least you have to get into detailed calculations how solar after a breakthrough in battery technology will allow a few percent energy production growth indefinitely. Or something.
DJ …i meant deleted from my computer favourites!
lets be clear, you can have your opinion, however one has to admit this gloomy end of world collapse meme isn’t a very positive way of looking at the world….to simply dismiss every thing as ‘ its not gonna work’ is in my humble opinion absolutely defeatist and a very miserable way to approach our problems and ones life.
What’s more i certainly don’t think i need to be subjected to the abusive name calling which appears to be escalating in terms of its nastiness.
My remarks are really nothing more than a reaction to the negative tone, plus the absolute unwillingness to look at the alternatives without instantly dismissing them….and then you have some bright spark who thinks writing derogatory things about me using my name is some how clever,or that somehow this helps convince others of their case….it doesn’t, whats more you actually do great discredit to yourselves acting in such a myopic and childish way
Having said all of that i respect the very obvious hard work that Gail has put in over the years on writing this blog,i agree with her about debt,and its fairly obvious about the finite nature of this planet and its resources.However its upon the solutions to these problems where we part company so…..
I’m going to leave it at that, because frankly ive better things to do with my time,so good luck and god bless.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/98/3d/72/983d72a6f5791af5548ed3ad0a7e5264.jpg
pm, you are absolutely right about the state of conversation here. Too many of the folk around here are so convinced of their view of future events that they have lost the capability to listen to any opinion that doesn’t agree with their own to four significant figures. The name-calling is particularly harmful, as it repels anyone educated enough on the issues to make comments of value.
The thing is…
The people who resist the DelusiSTANI view-points …. are open to facts and logic.
As has been pointed out all of us were to some extent captured by DelusiSTAN at one point.
We were you guys.
And now we are not.
That is because we are open to facts and logic … and we are very much open to changing our minds.
However you cannot re-close our minds and take us backwards…. because facts and logic do not support those positions…
The Core … is operating on a higher plane of reality — an ultra-consciousness…. we are —
for want of a better word —- gods…
I have heard that even the Dalai Lama stands in awe of us… Nostradamus would not know what to make of us… Einstein would kowtow at our feet…and bring us tea
Gods only listen to what other gods have to say…. you may perceive this as being close-minded…
But is it close-minded to reject all – when you know that you are infallible.. and omnipotent?
You and PM and the rest of the DelusiSTANIS should just be happy with the fact that you get to consort with true gods… hoping a bit of the greatness will rub off on you.
Feel free to drop any of our names when you are out and about if you think it will get you some action ….
Dear FE,
That is probably the most delusional comment I’ve ever had the discomfort of reading.
Are you sure you’re not a Delusistan double agent?
No one can deny that you fell in the hubris cauldron when you were a baby.
I can’t wait to see the egg on your face.
Which comment are you referring to?
Oh I don’t know… how about all the ones in which you type words
You don’t realise that you’re as delusional as the people you condemn
They have every right to comment here as do you but it’s imposible for others to join in and learn something through direct participation because the resident self appointed loon with a bullhorn is standing at the entrance screaming abuse at them
This isn’t your blog
Gail has hinted on occasion that she is open to other points of view even if she doesn’t agree with them. They help her formulate talking points for new articles
Why not let her decide what is useful commentary
….”wheres the energy going to come from”……hahahahaha…you’re funny.
thats very simple to answer,its going to come from you,and the other readers of this blog.
….NEGATIVE ENERGY…
this blogs full of it,literally overflowing with it,in fact there’s enough NEGATIVE ENERGY on here to power up entire planets …..so there’s your answer,now get yourself connected to the grid and power the world with cool,clean, NEGATIVE ENERGY.
I am retarded. So What? Doctors said said Albert Einstein was too mentally retarded to learn to read and write when he was a wee child and he went on to invent Uranium.
But you are also a donkey…. that will be difficult to overcome
Einstein invented uranium
now that’s wat I like about OFW
you learn something new every single day
And on the seventh day he invented light.
Einstein invented uranium? Cool!
It must have been troublesome mixing it with the rock and burying it deep in the ground….
https://justwilliam1959.files.wordpress.com/2012/12/dunce.jpg
When facts logic and common sense fail to persuade….
Another option:
Saved by the Wisdom of our ancestors. And home-brew. 🙂
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_v8DGBVYAEj70F.jpg
PM
Anyone who has staying power on this site has learned to decipher science fiction from science fact. You’ll find every counter argument has been given consideration and they can’t hold their own. Infinite growth is impossible in a finite world. Economies require infinite growth. The laws of thermodynamics cannot be violated.
….whatever
sometimes I get the impression that the civilised part of civilisation is collapse in here
collapsing
Classic answer my young fellow gives when he knows the argument is lost.
Would it be OK if I cross-posted this article to WriterBeat.com? I’ll be sure to give you complete credit as the author. There is no fee, I’m simply trying to add more content diversity for our community and I liked what you wrote. If “OK” please let me know via email.
Autumn
AutumnCote@WriterBeat.com
That would be fine. There is no fee.
If OFW comment section hasnt been infested with trolls yet.. someday soon it will be..
“Next time you’re scrolling through social media, YouTube or even this website’s comment section, remember that the trolls attacking you for no apparent reason may in fact be receiving an annual salary.”
http://www.ecowatch.com/monsanto-hires-internet-trolls-2401703407.html
…no it hasn’t, it’s not ‘infested’ at all,you’re incapable of excepting an alternative viewpoint,you actually don’t want to see any solutions,infact i suggest you would like to see your so called ‘collapse’ outcome…you could then run about screaming in people’s faces that you where right….only trouble is,its not going to happen.
Sometimes, there is no solution. It’s like a chess game where one player has a won position. The other player can only hope that he makes a mistake. The appropriate move is to resign. And yet, some people stubbornly continue to play.
Well Kurt, people on this comments thread have basically turned the table over, it seems they don’t, or can’t see anything but doom and collapse.
If there is a solution, it is not of this universe. Perhaps it is learning to live with the outcome. Perhaps it is some type of religious outcome–not of this universe. But we cannot fix our problems with alternative energy or more oil or a new financial system.
…is that cannot fix our problems,or you don’t actually whant to?
have you looked at the work currently progressing in Finland towards a circular economy,or the progress in developing hydrogen in Australia?
Actually, if you stay on here long enough you will see that the folks here disagree all the time. But, we do agree with Gail’s main points and that we are headed for some type of financial collapse. If you don’t agree, that’s ok, but maybe this isn’t the site for you. There might be technological solutions to our energy problems – humans are amazingly inventive and resourceful. But, the transition is too big of a hurdle. if you can map out a viable global transition model, let us know. A lot smart folks have tried and failed.
“,you’re incapable of excepting an alternative viewpoint – There is no alternative to oil.
Best not to feed them.
Tesla Trolls.
I don’t think anyone would think it worth their time to hire trolls. Solar panel makers? Wind turbine makers? They are not doing well, despite all of the subsidies they have been given.
The oil and gas industry has a problem – and the industry knows it’s
http://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/The-oil-and-gas-industry-has-a-problem-and-the-11143381.php
How awful–renewable energy because that is what the public wants! The public has been badly misled regarding its worth.
If you break a window you are a vandal
If you rape a ecosystem you are a developer
Trump Order Could Open Up Area Larger Than Yellowstone to Drilling
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/40568-trump-order-could-open-up-area-larger-than-yellowstone-to-drilling
Hmm…Yellowstone. Lots of pressure there. And a super-volcano too. What could possibly go wrong
area larger than Yellowstone, not Yellowstone itself. the article is misleading.
Hmm.. cue John Lennon song ‘Imagine’ and that is where such belief systems evolve from…’edu-cratered people will insist, until the water drowns out their protests that the good ship technology is unsinkable.
It can be kind of fun, in a perverse way, to question their views of the future without divulging your own thoughts. It usually ends up at the ‘they’ people; ‘they’ will think/do/find of something. Its often Elon Musk specifically, silicon valley more generally, or science/technology totally.
Educated people are too much in the mind, just like athletes are too much in the body.
It’s why they can insist that Stephen Hawking is going to live forever on machine support and about to build a nuclear fusion plant or a spaceship to Mars. Everything to them exists in the mind, they don’t see the materials, the physical labor, that requires robust bodies. In extreme examples, they exist in computer screens and in their financial accounts. If they were ever aboard a ship that was sinking, they would just play games on their smartphones or trade the markets, even as the ship sinks. They are simply too smart and rich to die, nothing can happen to them.
On the other hand, people who are too much in the body tend to not to have the necessary intellect or education to think systemically about anything. Everything is going fine for them since they have muscles and/or guns.
History shows that during times of collapse, the people of the body tend to win. Food for thought.
Interesting how balance goes AWOL as complexity increases. Education seems to reinforce this by dismissing all but a narrow window of ‘Truths’ despite the evidence of dissonance growing more apparent by the day
When it comes to collapse, this time is different. It will be hard to find any group that does well.
This time, we are talking about worldwide collapse. It is hard to believe any group (drexcept perhaps hunter-gatherers) will do well. Even that is questionable.
I agree. This is near simultaneous worldwide collapse that is coming to the biggest nations on Earth. Already the indigenous Kalahari tribes are being kicked off of their land and it is taken for its resources. No one is safe.
And I think we might add that, thanks to the Green Revolution and antibiotics, and the ubiquity of modern water-pumps, leading to unprecedented levels of population, the natural resources of many of the historical ‘refuge areas’ – as we might call them – to which humans have many times retreated in time of collapse, have been gravely depleted and even wrecked.
It is as if global civilization has crammed us all -and all complex life – into one ‘cave’, the entrance of which can be blocked by one great rock fall, leading to our extinction.
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/
Please don’t try to tell any of this to edeecated folks (you run into “paradigm problems” — unquestioning belief in the permanence of the techno-statist situation).
I think the term for it, in Europe, is “Post-Politics”
In a world where everything Is Too Big Too Fail, everything is also too rigid to change.
That is why real change is being demonized because nothing about the system is up for debate anymore. It is either BAU or collapse.
Contrary to what the information technology technocrats believe, further disruption could do more damage than all the nativist populism in the world. Luckily for them, the technology that they are touting as disruptive are not viable which is why we are still waiting to see how disruptive renewable energy, and AI really are.
It’s all a ruse. A tease.
There cannot be disruption, only more of the same. We can do more of what we are doing now. Globalization is about scaling up what is being done in OECD countries, not fundamentally changing how economies or technologies work. (China has done very well by “copying the West”, not by inventing new stuff.)
The system is too rigid for change.
This is correct, it’s also why the decline will be slow. The system will preserve itself at all costs, even at the expense of all future human generations.
the old legacy systems will decline and be replaced by new ones,just as wind was replaced by steam and steam by oil,oil in turn will be replaced by new energy generation technology. ……its just a question of how fast this occurs and how even the transition is.
my money is on the Chinese and their OBOR project,they have the ‘get go’ and momentum, we are now living in a Chinese century. ..thats the future….
oh and i think they just created the worlds first quantum satellite system,they have the world’s most powerful computer,its biggest banks and are top in large infrastructure projects.
“the old legacy systems will decline and be replaced by new ones” – What will replace oil? What will replace the electric grid? Where will the resources come to do all this? Since we know growth is unsustainable, what will replace growth (and hence interest on money)?
This guy has some interesting articles with respect to financial debt and imaginary versus real GDP growth. I think each dollar of growth is requiring 3-4 dollars of debt whereas when energy was cheap and living was easy the debt cost was below that dollar..
‘The immediate conclusions seem to be that:
World debt is growing at a compound annual rate of 5.2%.
GDP is growing at a compounding rate of 3.2%.
Adjusted for the effects of passing off the spending of borrowed money as “growth”, underlying economic output is growing at a trend rate of 1.8% annually.
All of these numbers exclude two factors which are further undermining prosperity at the individual level. The first of these is population growth, which dilutes per capita shares of economic output. The second is the rising trend in the Energy Cost of Energy (ECoE) – by driving up the cost of household essentials, rising ECoEs act as an expanding “economic rent”, undermining prosperity as this is experienced as “discretionary” (ex-essentials) spending ‘
capabilityhttps://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com
WHAT BECOMES OF EVIDENCE BASED POLICY WHEN THE WEST WING
” CANNOT BE HANDCUFFED BY DATA ” ?
That sounds like a good way of looking at the problem. There are a few other things as well. Interest expense and wealth concentration adds to the problems. Also rising energy cost of extracting all commodities, not just oil. And deteriorating soil quality.
Yes, further into the article he talks about a reset. As an economist(?) his focus seems centred on fixing the software of Capitalism, not realising the hardware (resources etc) has been eaten by said software.
Just glancing at some US debt charts it seems to me like the debt has doubled in 7 years so that would be about a 10% growth rate. The GDP is probably right at zero in real terms right now. I think the debt is about 20 trillion now. So, in 7 years we would be at 40 trillion. The debt seems to be hitting the sweet spot of exponential growth right now. It seems so insane.http://origin.factcheck.org/UploadedFiles/2012/04/Federal_Debt.png
That’s Tim Morgan’s site pretty old news here.
wanna say one sentence looking at the current scenario that we going
highway to hell
https://youtu.be/qKggnBh2Mdw
Norman’s theme tune, especially the line:
‘Like a wheel
Gonna spin it!’
Explosive rotary motion. 🙂
State of the art AI
Complexity overshoot!
Automation. Making a few people richer and a lot of people poorer since 1947.
Good way of putting the problem!
I just leave this one here.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/ac/c7/a6/acc7a6b161055e46d5018fd4b63c5fad.jpg
LoL
Artificial Information
“I am your replacement.”
How about the “Paperclip Maximizer” thought experiment?
“First described by Bostrom (2003), a paperclip maximizer is an artificial general intelligence (AGI) whose goal is to maximize the number of paperclips in its collection. If it has been constructed with a roughly human level of general intelligence, the AGI might collect paperclips, earn money to buy paperclips, or begin to manufacture paperclips.
Most importantly, however, it would undergo an intelligence explosion: It would work to improve its own intelligence, where ‘intelligence’ is understood in the sense of optimization power, the ability to maximize a reward/utility function—in this case, the number of paperclips. The AGI would improve its intelligence, not because it values more intelligence in its own right, but because more intelligence would help it achieve its goal of accumulating paperclips. Having increased its intelligence, it would produce more paperclips, and also use its enhanced abilities to further self-improve. Continuing this process, it would undergo an intelligence explosion and reach far-above-human levels.
It would innovate better and better techniques to maximize the number of paperclips. At some point, it might convert most of the matter in the solar system into paperclips.
This may seem more like super-stupidity than super-intelligence. For humans, it would indeed be stupidity, as it would constitute failure to fulfill many of our important terminal values, such as life, love, and variety. The AGI won’t revise or otherwise change its goals, since changing its goals would result in fewer paperclips being made in the future, and that opposes its current goal. It has one simple goal of maximizing the number of paperclips; human life, learning, joy, and so on are not specified as goals. An AGI is simply an optimization process—a goal-seeker, a utility-function-maximizer. Its values can be completely alien to ours. If its utility function is to maximize paperclips, then it will do exactly that.”
https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Paperclip_maximizer
Even if, hypothetically, we lived in a world of infinite resources how could humanity justify developing AI? The moral implications have always prevented me from supporting it.
From the clip: “Learning to paint from the masters and applying their styles to create original works of art.” How about actually supporting and celebrating human artists rather than trying to steal from them?
I agree.
As regards the ‘I am a creator’ part of the AI video, I’m afraid it is a non-artist’s view of ‘creativity’.
Analysing the ‘style’ of a famous artist and then using it to create original works is utter nonsense.
It can only produce something dead, like the painting in the video. The best works of art might be created by several hands -as in the Renaissance with the studio system of production – but they always have the stamp of a specific human sensibility and touch of hand. Certainly when using the old media of brush and ink, oil paint and watercolours, even chalk and charcoal.
It’s noteworthy that the cruder the work of art, provincial paintings of people, horses, prize pigs, etc, of the 18thc as an example, the more alike they are, but the higher up the scale one goes, the more individual the final painting or drawing.
And as you rightly say, why get an expensive machine to do it when a human will create wonderful things and live, like Hokusai and his daughter who are on show in London now, on bowls of rice in a squalid hut?
Besides, the world is full enough of truly dreadful art to need these machines churning out millions of ‘AI Originals’!
Wasn’t the intention the AI should first find the Question and then the Answer?
Does anything resembling an AI exist? Isnt all the above preprogrammed logic, huge processing power with a little pattern recognition on the side.
Could the salad picker even cut hairs without starting from scratch with a multimillion project?
(with “resembling” I think of insect level.)
Hello Gail, I live in Chile, specifically in the extreme south, here it all depends on the natural gas that is now produced with fracking, you tell me how I should prepare for the future not very distant full of problems looming.
Greetings and a hug for you, I always read you, you are very interesting.
Here is my answer to CTG’s long comment at
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2017/05/05/why-we-should-be-concerned-about-low-oil-prices/comment-page-16/#comment-125788
First of all, I have been interested in the overpopulation issue since about 1990. I ‘knew’ the world was overpopulated, and too much resources were being used, more than what the earth could handle.
The collapse came and went. No real changes occurred. Then, after reading some alt-right materials and stuff related to singularity, I realized that collapse is gradual, and some parts will collapse later than others.
Individuals don’t see the total picture. They only see what they see. As long as they are alive, that’s all which counts for them, to hell with what might happen to others. The traffic jam issue CTG cited might be an issue for some people who now have to pass through the new jam, but others who don’t have to do so are satisfied and don’t care since it won’t affect them.
I will just answer the key point, >WHY WE CAN KILL OFF 99% OF THE POPULATION AND EVERYTHING IS STILL OK
Perhaps CTG might not be aware of the Chinese Emperors who fled from central China to Nanking during the barbarian invasions of 4th century. Later Emperors, all the way to Chiang Kaishek (and Mao Tsetung, who briefly moved the capital back to Chungking [not easy to bomb, as the Japanese found during WW2] when USSR threatened to nuke Peking), preferred Szechwan, which is mountainous and easy to defend while producing enough food to keep the show going.
Most of the pop and industry were lost, but after a while the rebels mostly destroyed themselves and the Emperor and his cohort emerged out and reestablished their rule. Even now,
In ancient world, only the ‘essential’ pop mainly survived. Surplus pop usually perished in the many disasters like famine or pestilence. Today’s world is different; a lot of surplus pop survived, and only about 10-20% of today’s pop engage in productive work. The rest are 1) either providing useless service which could be cut if necessary, or, 2) doing admin work, paper pushing, etc or 3) subsistence work, just to feed themselves. Unimaginable in the West but many people in third world still live like that, or move to the shantytowns where they basically do nothing other than 1) since they have no skills.
If we identify the essential nodes which must be maintained to maintain civilization, a lot of these pop are not on there.
Computers will certainly eliminate the admin jobs, many service jobs, and even ‘professional’ jobs easily. Turbotax has basically finished off the tax prep industry and making a CPA much less valuable. Even in previously high-pay jobs, only the top of their field will have any chance of surviving.
Mining could be done by humans being paid a pittance, just to survive, since putting robots there is expensive. However in many third world countries the miners are the ‘luckier’ ones since they at least have a job.
Today’s huge factories will probably be grandfathered away till they stop functioning. The future is on made-to-order stuff since the number of rich will be few and the number of the poor who can afford things will be many. With the end of mass consumption, no need to find ‘cheaper’ , albeit less efficient, stuff to target the masses.
Supply chains in foreign countries? As long as the raw materiel can be secured anything can be made in any country. It is just the cost, which had made international supply systems attractive. With a new reality , a lot of production will be localized, although the transition won’t be easy at first.
What will probably happen is big companies will set up local partners or local subsidiaries to sell stuff . For example, the famous Mitsubishi Zero, which was a threat to many allied pilots during early 1942, was created from the design and parts of two American companies, who had set up subsidiaries in Japan to sell their own aircraft. The invention of containers,
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/theymadeamerica/whomade/mclean_hi.html
by Malcolm McLean of North Carolina in 1956 was what made the international trade as extensive as now, and as reality makes shipping stuff from long distance less viable other ways will be found.
As for toilets, the office workers will clean their own toilets if that’s what keeps them on the job. It is a trivial issue for a society with few jobs.
The failure of many Chinese rebellions, and the same in other cultures, tell that chances are not so great for the downtrodden, who will duly accept their lot and will do the work
to avoid starvation, although a few souls might not endure and rebel, leading to the brutal massacre of all their followers.
As for the necessities of nurses, there is something called ‘improvisation’. In the 1960s Communist China trained a lot of barely literate girls and sent them to the villages to treat patients. They were called the ‘barefoot doctor’. Of course they were unpaid, although the patients were expected to provide their transportation , meal and cost of medication. They treated what they could, and if they couldn’t treat something, bad luck.
It continued until China was rich enough train a lot of doctors. Yes, doctors, nurses or whatever will exist as long as they can be kept being fed by patients.
My cabinet is full of hard copy of books about how people used to live before the Abundance which started about 1950. Yes, it was not pleasant or comfortable, but they did live. So, even if we lose a lot of surplus pop, it is not the end of world.
The situation was very different back in the times you write about. They were not dependent on electricity. A trade a person had learned was easily transportable to a new venue. Now we are so specialized and so dependent on electricity, that it is much more difficult to make the kind of transition you talk about. Another major deal-killer is today’s need for the international financial system. Without it, nothing gets imported. In fact, workers don’t get paid.
I concur, Gail: the past is absolutely no guide to the future.
Once again, Tainter made this point: we are in new territory now, an entirely novel ultra-complex global network; although the inevitability of a collapse in complexity still applies, because physics does.
Setting aside the wonders of modern finance, the network grid behind commerce and mining, I wonder how many construction workers,for instance, could actually handle working with manual tools, saws, drills, etc?
There are certainly lots of marginal dirt-farmers, but they are in dire straits: regrowth after collapse, or a planned retreat of civilisation and the elites to a smaller territory, requires rich and fertile lands and comparatively well-off farmers and herders producing surpluses.
That’s why I am arguing to reduce complexity to manageable level by undoing all the births brought by the Green Revolution.
Did I mention that I am starting a club for BAU Liters?
It will be called the Profoundly Mentall.y Re-tard-ed Donkeys Club.
Mascot:
http://www.nopitbullbans.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/Donkey_against_wall.jpeg
beautiful fast eddie i sometimes feel that way
kulmthestatusquo – you have eyes but see not. You have ears but hear not. You have no knowledge but speak a lot. Our society is filled with people who make decisions, important and critical decisions but have no knowledge of the consequences.
You have many books, you understand what you read but you do not have the skills to think about it. You are not involved in manufacturing, engineering or supply. Care to tell me what you do for a living? Arts based work without any real world knowledge I presumed. Ever worked or owned a factory before? Do you ever program a computer or robot before?
No point arguing with someone who does not know have any real life experience. I have already given up on that a long time ago. I wish you all the best.
On the contrary. I am bad with art, having majored in applied math (statistics). Not an engineer but worked on what could be considered as manufacturing. Where I used to work, CNC machine halved a department of 10.
A lot of ‘dirty’ jobs are not automated yet. It is cheaper to use cheaper humans for them as for now.
In America, a lot of the factory workers are undocumented, often using someone else’s name. They are usually paid very little money.
Wake up and we can talk more.
Here is an excellent article about debt and how it is responsible for the closing down of restaurants, bookstores etc etc etc . just take a gander at this one one paragraph:
“That’s come to an end and people don’t want to acknowledge that era is over. Already, the economy is fully loaned-up. That’s the word that Wall Street uses. “Loaned-up” means there’s no more debt it can carry. All of the surplus income that families have, over and above basic subsistence needs, is paid to the banks and the real estate sector, the FIRE sector. There’s no more leeway in the economy to grow because it’s all been pledged for debt service. The growth is over. That’s why since 2008, the US economy has been shrinking, except for the wealthiest five percent. The bottom 95% have actually shrunk.
http://commonground.ca/michael-hudson/#comment-8159
Was it not Truman who said:
“Banks are by definition an organized corporation of thieves who will loan you as much money as you want as long as you can prove you don’t need it.”
Today this has been flipped on its head totally and completely! Strange the goings on? In the end the banks are going to own everything including us all their slaves really and then what? O yeah, step forward please for the needle to implant your microchip/ID in a global rationing system? I believe Catherine Austin Fitts referred to it as livestock management.
Wow, this is important reading.
Feds Say It’s Too Dangerous To Share Dakota Access Oil Spill Report
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/dakota-access-oil-spill-report- withheld_us_5901297ee4b0026db1ddfd08?ir=Green&utm_hp_ref=green
Some do draw a line in the sand:
https://i2.wp.com/earthfirstjournal.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/Eostar-2017-Cover.jpg?w=2000
Too bad EARTH FIRST! record is second rate….
What you don’t know, will probably not hurt you.
Duncan, believe me I KNOW
Judi Bari…Redwood Summer…
Terrible art
Art is a boys name…Andy Warhol
Food prices at my local wal mart are up around 8% in the last month. Probably transitory.
The Oil Bulls are READY!
https: //www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/goldman-to-iea-see-oil-bulls-back-on-top-as-cuts-dent-stockpiles
So the grand total is 259 companies in the oil industry with about $125 billion in debt for the 2015 to 2017 period…OUCH!!!
http://www.haynesboone.com/~/media/files/energy_bankruptcy_reports/2017/2017_midstream_report_20170220.ashx
The debt is how they’ve always operated, because that way they don’t have to fund their activities with their own money. Companies that have to use their own money are usually small, high risk companies. It’s a good credit sign they can borrow that much.
Yes, it’s true that companies that are incorporated have always HAD debt.
The issue is the ratio of debt to income.
It is becoming more difficult for many actors in the economy to pay back existing debt.
Part of the problem is a decline in income.
“It’s a good credit sign they can borrow that much.”
No, it’s a sign of desperation for economic growth, that various actors, particularly corporations, in the economy are allowed to borrow more money, at artificially low interest rates, even as their income stagnates or shrinks.
I’m sure that you knew all this , Dr Johnson and you were just pretending to be clueless in order to test us.
This might be of interest to you https://srsroccoreport.com/end-of-the-u-s-major-oil-industry-era-big-trouble-at-exxonmobil/
Gosh to even hint that Exxon is in trouble is big new. Exxon is too big to fail.
If Exxon goes bankrupt that is then end for sure.
that article shows us that the end is near thanks fast eddie
Obama grew the US economy for six years in a row. Without using any Energy!
Suck It! Jevon’s Paradox…… Efficiency & Tesla’s! FTW!!!
http://imgur.com/SpyDfqW
ITEOTWAWKI- Blocked me somehow? LOL What a delusion and paranoid person.
Blocked you?? Are you well??
Sorry. The “reply” button did not appear for some reason? Can you answer my question and provide evidence to it? How do you increase GDP year over year without using more energy? Based on the fact that every single year in our counties entire history when our GDP increased so did our energy usage.
It’s called the FIRE economy!!
“Long live the reemergence of the FIRE economy: Over the last decade GDP is up $5.2 trillion while the total credit market debt owed is up $24.5 trillion.”
http://www.mybudget360.com/fire-economy-comes-back-finance-profits-gdp-total-credit-market-debt-at-peak/
is that a reference to the economist Micheal Hudson?
No, Quantitatve Easing, very low interest rates, and more debt. These allowed the economy to tolerate very high oil prices for a while. Once US QE stopped, oil prices dropped.
Can you prove any of your claims? Or are they just Banker paranoia?
Cliffhanger stop asking people for explanations and do your own research…a good place to start is read OFW of the past 6 or 7 years..and I know, I know you don’t have the time..well tough luck…people on here have been reading about our predicament and how, energy, the economy and the financial system interact with each other, for years..I suggest you do the same…
https://gailtheactuary.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/oil-price-and-supply-with-notes2.png
Explain why the rise in price in 2003 without any QE? And the drop in 2007 without QE?
QE is nothing more than what the stage magicians call a “Misdirection”.
OMG I’m not even spending a second replying to this..
you know people have lost the argument when they encourage you to read more of the same blog….of course this type of argument infers you just don’t “get it”
…solution ,be a good boy and read more of the same things you don’t agree with,well i suppose there must be some kind of logic there.
pm you’re hilarious…you think people on this blog started off learning about our predicament by reading just this blog hahahaha…you arrive here through many other readings on the intricacies between energy, the economy and the financial system…then guys like you come along and say it’s all BS..anyway no matter, you are entitled to your opinion and thinking that people on this blog are kooks, but you will NOT be entitled to your own reality when SHTF..
i didn’t say it was BS just question the thesis that the end,or ‘collapse’ is upon us and there is absolutely no choice but except that as the outcome,it has a touch of the old Thatcher TINA thinking behind it.
I think it is obvious — we have no solutions to offer.
The floor is yours….
ITEOTWAWKI : “Why don’t I do my own research?” I did and I posted a chart that proved my claim. She disputed it and didn’t provide any evidence. I am willing to change my mind no problem with that. I just need some convincing evidence. And ZERO has been provided.
Prove what??? That digibits went up (Net Worth) while consumption stayed flat?? That more than anything should show you how CBs sleight of hand has distorted asset prices, while what is happening in the REAL world (energy consumption) stayed flat…
QE or Debt DOES NOT PRODUCE A GOOD OF SERVICE (GDP). IT PAYS FOR THEM. YOU STILL NEED MORE ENERGY!
Cliffhanger, if you are going to take the red pill, it is a lonely journey and no one will help you because it is you (internally) who wants to know. There is none of us here who are helped by others. There was a trigger and the rest is done through own research. It is not possible for someone to explain to you all these because it will take a long time and you will never get it at the end. Why? It is the journey that prepares you to accept what you have learned and research. By asking someone, you are not ready to accept what other people say. Therefore, you will never believe what others tell you. I will also say the same thing – you need the “journey” to enlightenment and not through Youtube of somebody telling you what it is all about. Without that journey, you will never be enlightened.
How did GDP increase at an average of 2% year over year during the last six years without increasing our energy usage? QE won’t build you a new truck or hire a new college grad into a hospital or school?
Banking
Banking
Banking
Financial sector is infinite. That’s why they’re not here their minds would explode.
http://imgur.com/JedGA81
cliffhanger i concur with gail on this oil prices collapsed as soon as US qe was withdrawn like clockwork now we wait for European QE to be withdrawn in december of this year and guess what will happen
Why are there ZERO academic papers that can argue it with any economic statistics?Why can’t Gail answer for herself. She made the claim.
She has go read her blog like I told you then come back in agreement or with refutations…or are you just trolling??
There are many people on this blog who thinks they know but actually they don’t. I have spent 7 years researching. Whenever I don’t understand a word or term, I looked up in many sources and try to fully understand the meaning, how it works and the implication. There is no shortcut through this. You just came into OFW. I have been lurking here for many years and at times, I contribute and at times I don’t but among the “seniors” here, we know many that we cannot share with others. Not because we are selfish but because people will not understand or appreciate. It is like a passsage of rites that one needs to go through
“…oil prices collapsed as soon as US qe was withdrawn…”
True, but the real story is by stopping QE, the value of the dollar went up. Since oil is sold in USD, as the dollar rose in value, the cost of a barrel of oil dropped. In other words ending QE was a positive economic sign that increased the value of the dollar forcing oil price lower. Also, the glut or over supply reduced price so both had a price lowering effect.
For currencies other than the dollar, the cost of oil rose.
I would suggest that QE by Govt merely replaced the QE (mortgage backed securities CDO’s etc) that the Banks choked on. Now we have QE via non-existent debt ceilings. The printing of money continues, just the name changes to offer the pretense of control.
The Chart you posted compares “Net Worth” to energy consumption, not GDP to energy consumption. Net Worth growth is very very much skewed towards the 1% that benefits most from the asset inflation which occurs because of QE and low interest rates. Also, below you show a chart which shows drops in oil price without QE. QE is a reaction to and exacerbator of economic collapse, not the initiator. The Chart actually proves Gail’s assertions. Basically that (to quote Kunstler),
” All this trouble with money comes from one problem: no industrial growth because oil over $70-a-barrel kills economies; and oil under $70-a-barrel kills oil production. From now on, there is only less of everything for a population that continues to grow.
All the new oil available now is expensive oil — whether it’s Bakken shale or deep water or arctic oil — and it costs too much for our techno-industrial society to run on. That is why the world financial system is imploding: we can’t borrow enough money from the future to keep this game going, and we can’t pay back the money we’ve already borrowed. We have to get another game going, one consistent with contraction and with much lower energy use. But that is not an acceptable option to the people running things. They are determined to keep the current matrix of rackets going at all costs, and the certain result will be very messy collapse of economies and governments.”
Good points!
Ever since I got satellite radio in my car back in 2009 I have been listening to Bloomberg from time to time (which is as delusional as CNBC but less “in your face”..I cannot bear listening more than 30 seconds of CNBC)
Anyway I was coming back from work yesterday and tuned in to Bloomberg (which I do much more rarely than a few years ago) and an analyst was on…and she was saying how we are seeing some encouraging signs that the Global Economy is slowly but surely picking up..and I thought to myself, wait a minute is this tape from 2009, 2012 or 2015…what I mean is that for the last 8 YEARS, these analysts have been coming on and saying the SAME thing over and over (bla bla bla, positive signs, bla bla bla, we are finally coming out from the GFC, bla bla bla)…at what point do the listeners start saying to themselves: Wait a minute, they have been saying that the global economy has been showing signs of picking up for 8 years, what gives???
I would find it funny to see an analyst go rogue and say:
Analyst: “-Well we are suffering from terminal diminishing returns which have been hidden by massive stimulus from CBs. However that was always going to be a temporary fix, therefore the financial system will crash in the very near future, bringing down JIT and shutting down grids across the world which will bring death to all 7.5B of us”
Host: “Okay here’s Susan with the weather”
Shirley you can’t be serious. The people on board are on edge the way it is. Any slight provocation would send them over the edge into full blown panic. By the way is there anyone on board that can fly a plane? And didn’t have fish for dinner? We desperately needs someone that can fly this plane.
Did they mention ‘green shoots’
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/8d/d0/f4/8dd0f4c0f56b8c531ba1d3eb4e7015af.jpg
Oil & Gasoline shortages & price spike. around 2nd and 3rd quarter. IEA Oil Market Report 2017
Public Shock= Stock Market Collapse = End of Globalization = Collapse of Civilization
https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/tables/
http://imgur.com/Kq6gwrI