Most people assume that oil prices, and for that matter other energy prices, will rise as we reach limits. This isn’t really the way the system works; oil prices can be expected to fall too low, as we reach limits. Thus, we should not be surprised if the OPEC/Russia agreement to limit oil extraction falls apart, and oil prices fall further. This is the way the “end” is reached, not through high prices.
I recently tried to explain how the energy-economy system works, including the strange way prices fall, rather than rise, as we reach limits, at a recent workshop in Brussels called “New Narratives of Energy and Sustainability.” The talk was part of an “Inspirational Workshop Series” sponsored by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission.
Figure 1. Empty Schuman room of the Berlaymont European Commission building, shortly after we arrived. Photo shows Mario Giampietro and Vaclav Smil, who were the other speakers at the Inspirational Workshop. Attendees started arriving a few minutes later.
My talk was titled, “Elephants in the Room Regarding Energy and the Economy.” (PDF) In this post, I show my slides and give a bit of commentary.
Slide 2
The question, of course, is how this growth comes to an end.
Slide 3
I have been aided in my approach by the internet and by the insights of many commenters to my blog posts.
Slide 4
We all recognize that our way of visualizing distances must change, when we are dealing with a finite world.
Slide 5
I should note that not all economists have missed the fact that the pricing situation changes, as limits are reached. Aude Illig and Ian Schindler have recently published a paper that concludes, “We find that price feedback cycles which lead to increased production during the growth phase of oil extraction go into reverse in the contraction phase of oil extraction, speeding decline.”
Slide 6
The comments shown in red on Slide 6 reflect a variety of discussions over the last several years. Oil prices in the $50 per barrel range are way too low for producers. They may be high enough to get “oil out of the ground,” but they are not high enough to encourage necessary reinvestment, and they are not high enough to provide the tax revenue that oil exporters depend on.
Slide 7
Most people don’t stop to think about the symmetric nature of the problem. They also don’t realize that the adverse impacts of low oil prices don’t necessarily appear immediately. They can temporarily be hidden by more debt.
Slide 8
There would be no problem if wages were to rise as oil prices rise. Or if there were an easily substitutable source of cheap energy. The problem becomes an affordability problem.
Slide 9
The economists’ choice of the word “demand” is confusing. A person cannot simply demand to buy a car, or demand to go on a vacation trip. The person needs some way to pay for these things.
Slide 10
If researchers don’t examine the situation closely, they miss the nuances.
Slide 11
Slide 12
Many people think that the increasing use of tools can save us, because of the possibility of increased productivity.
Slide 13
Using more tools leads to the need for an increasing amount of debt.
Slide 14
Read this chart from left to right. If we combine increasing quantities of resources, workers, and tools, the output is a growing quantity of goods and services.
Slide 15
Read this chart from right to left. How do we divide up the goods and services produced, among those who produced the products? If we can only use previously produced goods to pay workers and other contributors to the system, we will never have enough. But with the benefit of debt, we can promise some participants “future goods and services,” and thus have enough goods and services to pay everyone.
Slide 16
If we decrease the amount of debt, we have a big problem. Instead of the debt adding to the amount of goods and services produced, the shrinkage acts to decrease the amount of goods and services available for distribution as pay. This is why moving from deficit spending to a balanced budget, or a budget that reduces debt, is so painful.
Slide 17
When I say (resources/population), I mean resources per capita. Falling resources per capita makes it harder to earn an adequate living. Think of farmers trying to subsist on ever-smaller farms. It would become increasingly difficult for them to earn a living, unless there were to be a big improvement in technology.
Or think of a miner who is extracting ore that is gradually dropping from 5% metal, to 2% metal, to 1% metal content, and so on, because the best quality ore is extracted first. The miner needs to work an increasing number of hours to produce the ore needed for 100 kilograms of the metal. The economy is becoming in some sense “worse off,” because the worker is becoming “inefficient” through no fault of his own. The resources needed to provide benefits simply are less available, due to diminishing returns. This problem is sometimes reported as “falling productivity per worker.”
Falling productivity per worker tends to lower wages. And lower wages put downward pressure on commodity prices, because of affordability problems.
Slide 18
The problems that prior civilizations reached before collapse sound in many ways like the problems we are seeing today. We are seeing increased specialization, and falling relative wages of non-elite workers.
Slide 19
We seem to have already gone through a long period of stagflation since the 1970s. The symptoms we are seeing today look as if we are approaching a steep downslope. If we are approaching a crisis stage, it may be much shorter than the 20 to 50 years observed historically. Earlier civilizations (from which these timeframes were observed), did not have electricity or the extensive international trade system we have today.
Slide 20
The period since 1998 seems especially flat for wages for US wage earners, in inflation-adjusted terms. This is the period since energy prices started rising, and since globalization started playing a greater role.
Slide 21
This is a list I made, showing that what looks to be beneficial–adding tools and technology–eventually leads to our downfall. The big problem that occurs is that non-elite workers become too poor to afford the output of the economy. Adding robots to replace workers looks efficient, but leaves many unemployed. Unemployment is even worse than low pay.
Slide 22
We can think of the economy as being a self-organized network of businesses, consumers, and governments. New products are gradually added, and ones that are no longer needed are eliminated. Government regulations change in response to changing business conditions. Debt is especially important for economic growth, because it makes goods affordable for customers, and it enables the use of “tools.” Prices are created almost magically by this networked system, through the interaction between supply and demand (reflecting affordability, among other things).
Slide 23
It is only in recent years that physicists have become increasingly aware of the fact that many types of structures form in the presence of flows of energy. We have known for a long time that plants and animals can grow when conditions are right. The networked economy illustrated on Slide 22 is one of the types of things that can grow and flourish in the presence of energy flows.
Slide 24
This is my view of how an economy, as a dissipative structure, works. “Tools and technology” are at the center. If a person doesn’t think too much about the issues involved, it is easy to assume that tools and technology will allow the economy to grow forever.
There is a potential for problems, both with respect to inputs and waste outputs. Early modelers missed many of these “issues.” M. King Hubbert created a model in which the quantity of energy supply and technology are the only issues of importance. He thus missed the impact of the Waste Output problems at the right. The Waste Outputs lead to falling prices as limited supply nears, and thus lead to a much steeper drop in production than Hubbert’s symmetric model would suggest.
Slide 25
Peak oilers recognized one important point: our use of oil products would at some point have to come to an end. But they did not understand how complex the situation is. Low prices, rather than high, would be the problem. We would see gluts rather than shortages, as we approach limits. Much of the oil that seems to be technologically extractable will really be left in the ground, because of low prices and other problems.
Slide 26
Here, I am getting back to the topic I was originally asked to talk about. What else, besides low energy prices and too much debt, are likely to be problems as we reach limits?
Slide 27
The easy way of modeling the use of wind turbines and solar turbines is to assume that the electricity produced by these devices is equivalent to electricity produced by fossil fuels, or by hydroelectric. Unfortunately, this is not the case.
Slide 28
Trying to integrate solar panels into an electric grid adds a whole new level of complexity to the electrical system. I have only illustrated some of the issues that arise in Slide 28.
The fact that the price system doesn’t work for any fuel is a major impediment to adding more than a very small percentage of intermittent renewables to the electric grid. Intermittent renewables can only be used on the electric grid if they have a 24/7/365 backup supply that can be ramped up and down as needed. Unfortunately, the pricing system does not provide nearly high enough rates for this service. We are now seeing how this works out in practice. South Australia lost its last two coal-fired electricity power plants due to inadequate wholesale electricity prices when it added wind and solar. Now it is experiencing problems with both high electricity prices and too-frequent outages.
Another problem is that new [long distance] transmission makes buying from neighbors optimal, over at the left of Slide 28. This is a new version of the tragedy of the commons. Once long distance lines are available, and a neighbor has a fairly inexpensive supply of electricity, the temptation is to simply buy the neighbor’s electricity, rather than build local electricity generating capacity. The greater demand, without additional supply, then raises electricity prices for all, including the neighbor who originally had the less expensive electricity generation.
Slide 29
It is easy to assume that EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested) or some other popular metric tells us something useful about the cost of integrating intermittent renewables into the electric grid, but this really isn’t the case.
Slide 30
We are now beginning to see what happens in “real life,” as intermittent renewables are added. For example, we can now see the problems South Australia is having with high electricity prices and too many outages as well as the high electricity prices in Germany and Denmark (Slide 29).
Slide 31
Wind and solar are not very helpful as stand-alone devices. Yet this is the way they are modeled. Some researchers have included installation costs, but this still misses the many problems that these devices cause for the electrical system, especially as the share of electricity production by these devices rises.
Slide 33
A networked system works differently than a system that is “user controlled.” It builds itself, and it can collapse, if conditions aren’t right. I have shown the economy as hollow, because there is no way of going backward.
Slide 34
Many people miss the point that the economy must keep growing. In fact, I pointed this out in Slide 2 and gave an additional reason why it must keep growing on Slide 16. As the economy grows, we tend to need more energy. Growing efficiency can only slightly offset this. Thus, as a practical matter, energy per capita needs to stay at least level for an economy to grow.
Slide 35
If energy prices rise, this will tend to squeeze out discretionary spending on other goods and services. If we cannot obtain energy products sufficiently cheaply, the system of economic growth will stop.
Slide 36
The fact that energy prices can, and do, fall below the cost of production is something that has been missed by many modelers. Prices can go down, even when the cost of production plus taxes needed by governments rises!
Slide 37
Wind and solar are part of the category at the top called “renewables.” This category also includes energy from wood and from geothermal. Many people do not realize how small this category is. Hydroelectric is also considered a renewable, but it is not growing in supply in the United States or Europe.
Slide 38
It takes energy to have an intergovernmental organization, such as the European Union. In fact, it takes energy to operate any kind of government. When there is not enough surplus energy to go around, citizens decide that the benefits of belonging to such organizations are less than the costs involved. That is the reason for the Brexit vote, and the reason the question is coming up elsewhere.
Slide 39
The amount of taxes oil-producing countries can collect depends on how high the price of oil is. If the price isn’t high enough, oil-exporting countries generally have to cut back their budgets. Even Saudi Arabia is having difficulty with low oil prices. It has needed to borrow in order to maintain its programs.
Slide 40
Oil prices have been too low for producers since at least mid-2014. It is possible to hide a problem with low prices with increasing debt for a few years, but not indefinitely. The longer the low-price scenario continues, the more likely a collapse in production is. Also, the tendency of international organizations of government to collapse (Slide 38) takes a few years to manifest itself, as does the tendency for civil unrest within oil exporters (Slide 39).
Slide 41
Slide 42
It is easy to miss the point that modeling a piece of the system doesn’t necessarily tell a person very much about the system as a whole.
Slide 43
Once an incorrect understanding of our energy problem becomes firmly entrenched, it becomes very difficult for leaders to understand the real problem.
Stop thinking like scientists, start thinking like Israelites.
How do you keep the people showing up even though the system is dead? Simple. A little bit of pay and a little bit of inflation. That keeps them on the treadmill.
You cannot for one moment allow an increase in real wages, and you cannot for one moment allow deflation. That would simultaneously increase the purchasing power of the workers’ money, and cause deflation as well, as money would be hoarded.
You also have to buy up assets across the spectrum (stocks, housing) to keep people chasing the increasing price.
You basically have to keep people showing up to work until they die. That’s the name of the game. It’s slave management, and you are the slaves.
There are a lot of Israelies that are scientists
So should I think like the ones that are not scientists?
Will that do?
Or maybe just stop thinking…
Now there’s a solution!
Interesting news about the famed Norwegian doomsday seed vault: it seems to be failing, due to utterly unanticipated warming of its location.
‘This is supposed to last for eternity.’
It is amazing how much we humans do not anticipate. Why do we need a doomsday seed vault? Makes no sense. The Earth is much better equipped to handle things than humans and a seed bank.
havent seen any news on that
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/may/19/arctic-stronghold-of-worlds-seeds-flooded-after-permafrost-melts
That whole article is just comical. Seriously, if there was some catastrophe, how would we get the seeds from a seed bank in Spitsbergen? If it is that bad that you need seeds what will you eat while the seeds germinate? If there is a nuclear war with nuclear winter the seeds won’t be of any use anyway. And if it is impregnable how does one needing seeds get in? It is fitting that this silly venture is being threatened by climate change and melting permafrost.
When aliens arrive in 100000 years they can visit the seed vault and see what humans ate.
The (black) humour in this news is that even when trying terribly hard to think ahead, we get it wrong…..
They are carrying out modifications, but the facility which was meant to be impregnable and operate ‘without humans’ now requires 24/7 monitoring…..
“…even when trying terribly hard to think ahead, we get it wrong…..”
Agreed
“The Earth is much better equipped to handle things than humans and a seed bank.”
Agreed.
“This is supposed to last for eternity.” – Eternity in human terms is probably about 30 years.
“Eternity in human terms is probably about 30 years.”
Agreed
I wonder what’s happening at the old military reactor on Greenland they’re not telling us about.
Except it’s false…
The Guardian claimed the flooding “impregnable” vault’s 300-foot entrance tunnel due to melting permafrost “questioned the ability of the vault to survive as a lifeline for humanity if catastrophe strikes.”
There’s only one problem — the vault floods almost every year.
Popular Science spoke to Cary Fowler, one of the vault’s designers, who told them “[f]looding is probably not quite the right word to use in this case.”
“In my experience, there’s been water intrusion at the front of the tunnel every single year,” Fowler said.
Fowler explained the tunnel was built along a mountain slope, and at the base two pumping stations remove water that gets into the entrance — the entrance was not made to be watertight.
“The tunnel was never meant to be watertight at the front, because we didn’t think we would need that,” Fowler said. “What happens is, in the summer the permafrost melts, and some water comes in, and when it comes in, it freezes. It doesn’t typically go very far.”
In fact, building the tunnel itself made the surrounding permafrost more vulnerable to melting. Permafrost is sensitive to temperature spikes and artificial developments. Designers have to be careful when building in the Arctic because permafrost melt can make buildings unstable.
Even if all the ice caps melted, the seed vault would be totally fine, Fowler said.
“We did this calculation; if all the ice in the world melted — Greenland, Arctic, Antarctic, everything — and then we had the world’s largest recorded tsunami right in front of the seed vault. So, very high sea levels and the world’s largest Tsunami. What would happen to the seed vault?” Fowler said.
“We found that the seed vault was somewhere between a five and seven story building above that point. It might not help the road leading up to the seed vault, but the seeds themselves would be ok,” Fowler said.
The Norwegian government opened the seed vault in 2008 as a “backstop” against “the challenge of natural or man-made disasters.” The vault contains more than 4,000 plant species from around the world, which sit sealed in chambers chilled to around zero degrees Fahrenheit.
The seed vault, also referred to as the “doomsday” vault, is built 400 feet into a mountain slope in Spitsbergen island. Currently, there are between 800,000 and 900,000 seed samples in the vault.
(Ironically, global warming was one of the threats the Norwegians wanted to hedge against. So, they put it in a region scientists say will warm faster than the rest of the world. But that questionable decision is a topic for another time.)
Before Popular Mechanics spoke to one of the vault’s designers, meteorologist Ryan Maue pointed out some huge problems with The Guardian’s narrative.
http://dailycaller.com/2017/05/20/liberal-journos-uncritically-echo-reports-global-warming-flooded-the-world-doomsday-vault/
The hammer blow will be so loud, it will be heard in space…
57% Of Australians Couldn’t Handle $100 A Month Rise In Mortgage Payments
https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/c2b057f6b0cf010a28018dfa0001631a1f247cce/0_278_4256_2554/master/4256.jpg?w=620&q=20&auto=format&usm=12&fit=max&dpr=2&s=3335664ff153c8bc9f3647b2e41a5de2
Rising property costs and stagnating wages have left more than 767,000 Australian households or 23.4% in mortgage stress, according to research firm Digital Finance Analytics. Even households in affluent suburbs struggle to meet repayments as survey finds financial distress from property price surges reaching beyond ‘battlers and mortgage belt’.
So, 57% of Australians have reached limits to growth.
The underlying drivers were “flat or falling wage growth”, much faster rising living costs and the likelihood mortgage interest payments would only go up.
>>> The pie is shrinking….
Widespread mortgage burdens were limiting spending elsewhere and “sucking the life out of the economy”, and the problem should be addressed to head off a housing crash and its repercussions, North said.
“If we start seeing house prices slipping then this can turn into a US 2007 scenario rather quickly,” he said.
The RBA cannot raise interest rates again, because it will cause a contraction in the economy, But the rising cost of living, declining wages, onerous mortgage repayments and just way too much personal debt will tip this sled of the edge of the precipice, sooner or later. When the slip begins, I fully expect the RBA to panic and lower rates though, that’s how you’ll know the end is near.
I mean the RBA talks a good game, but they are stuck, and cannot afford to either raise nor lower rates. But the final deflationary slip, led by the contraction in the property bubble, will cause a final desperate attempt to prevent what we know, with mathematical certainty will happen, by the wholesale slashing of rates. At best, this will buy a little bit more time, before the final curtain falls on the European experiment in the Antipodes.
It appears so, Aussies had a big run, and everything comes unstuck – entropy you know. The end of the road for the “lucky country” looms, as it eventually does for all.
http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2016/11/02/104071786-RTX2QM5I.1910×1000.jpg
Venezuela looks nice this time of year
Is that street football the natives are playing?
How quaint
Still… keeps the youth occupied I suppose
Idle hands and all that
Check this out. Musk said “We’re a money-losing company,” –
https://www.yahoo.com/news/report-workers-passing-tesla-factory-213047341.html
Looks like workers at the Tesla factory are overworked too.
Something worth considering is the dynamic change in the energy system particularly oil. Even though affordability is a major pressure on pricing creating an environment that prevents the industry from generating sustainable production there has to be other fundamentals fueling the change. Access to credit is a major one as has been the economic driver since the 80s. Now there is little chance that private debt will grow wages are to low and there isn’t any relief without a complete reset in private debt. But even with that it’s unlikely that the economy can change its downturn because of a fundamental change in the energy industry.
In all the controversy over the Hills Group analysis a simple fact remains. The energy industry, particularly oil, has gone from a net supplier to a net consumer in the last 5 years. That was in simple terms the conclusion of the report. So think about it. If the oil industry consumes more energy than it supplies how will affect prices? What advantage is there for them to increase prices considering it will increase operating costs?
It’s like the industry is a plane as long as they could provide a surplus or high EROEI to the economy then they could maintain speed and stay in the air. As the surplus diminished the industry could plateau rather then climb. But as it became a consumer it no longer had the economic energy to stay in the air. Kind of like the engines are under powered. However if you adjust the attitude down you can keep the plane up but you’re in a continuous decent.
This is what is happening. If prices try to rise there is a double drag. More economic headwinds and less power.
As the energy consumption shifts from the economic industrialized world to the energy industry the situation will only grow worse. Meaning the attitude will have to pitch down at a steeper and steeper angle. This will continue until the system hits the ground.
So there is no solution that can possibly keep the BAU alive. All the levers have been pulled. All the lifeboats have been deployed.
This is also not a linear event it increases in speed exponentially as it progresses. Don’t believe it? Take a debt to GDP graph turn it upside down tell me what you see?
The system clearly turned over the fall of 2014 and it ain’t going to recover.
“The energy industry, particularly oil, has gone from a net supplier to a net consumer in the last 5 years.”
How can that possibly be true? Where is all the extra energy being used by other than the energy industry coming from? It can’t all be coming from storage.
The “other” industrie still gets a part of the energie, but it is now less than 50 % of the output of the energy industrie. And its share is shrinking exponentially.
By the way, the result of this development may actually become visible.
I saw the folling comment from Cathal Haugian on the peak oil.com side within a comment from shortonoi. Perhaps Cathal can provide more information about the background:
“Conquest of Russia has failed.All 5th column agents in Moscow have been cleaned out.The Families agree that the Age of Capital has ended. (See my thesis, Volume 3, which referenced the Hills report) Families have agreed and are about to make major change to money flows. (see Volume 2, last chapter.) So I suppose this is it; make sure you protect yourself going forward. Make sure you have a few Coins.
Good Luck
Cathal ”
Saludos
el mar
Correct El Mar.
You see what’s happening
Thanks for your almost very clear comments.
Also thanks to Norman, CT, Van Kent and Fast Eddy and all the others.
Here in Germany, specially the south :-), everything is great. At the moment our “airplane” have enough fuel to stay in the air. 🙂 But for how long?
I’m working in a mechanical eneneering company, which produce two third of the machines for export. More than half for car industrie, and the big part of the rest to the energy industry. All is great. The orders are extremly high and it is unclear how to produce all this machnes.
I think only a few people have a clue wat will come, I know only one.
I think I will quit the job because it is like ro go all morning to a nuthouse.
On the ne side the work with peak oil and OFW is like to die a little bit every day, but also to see the beautiful things in live. Like Yin Yang
Thanks.
It’s hard to breakdown complex ideas like Gail’s and the Hills Group. I try to associate them with more basic concepts that will include a broader audience. This isn’t easy because often a small gap is exploited to discredit the general thought.
I also post on the fly from an IPhone and the spell assist screws things up before I notice it’s in the post.
I also try to discuss this matter with a lot of people, send them some articles and vids.
But the way to go inside is very hard and needs a lot of time and causes a lot of pain.
And now I’m very deep inside the thinking of peak oil and the consequences about it.
Specially my hushband denies a deeper dicussion. Not so nice 🙁
Knowing the consequences allows me a deeper understanding of our life and the focus on the essential.
I’ve learned a lot about life, capitalism, money, biology, brain, health, community, etc.
And I’m only a increddible small part of nature. So what?
I hope we will have another decade, I know the predictions are not so.
Grete,
I wouldnt recommend trying to discuss these things too far and wide. Human brain chemistry shows, that if you talk about divorces, miscarriages, or the sure to come extinction level event of the human race.. then the same structures in the brain are activated, as if the person was in pain himself..
There seem to be very few who can handle the pain..
Everybody else just tries to protect themselves from the pain, in any way possible..
I dont think Eddy much tries to talk about these things to mrs. Eddy.. and they seem to have a great time despite Eddy being… well Eddy.. so take heart and enjoy the time you have left with your husband. At least thats the way I see things. Carpe diem.
You are correct — Madame Fast is mostly aware — but she has no interest in discussing these matters. It depresses her
Grete,
Before quitting your job, please consider one thing.
If we have time to go in to martial law, rationing and everybody having a simple blank zero in all our bank accounts.. then being part of an essential economic structure keeps you “in the loop”..
Everybody who isnt essential.. will have an even harder time..
But this of course is only, if we are lucky enough to ever get martial law..
But, is it not so that those with the largest number is in charge? Why would they want to reset that?
DJ,
Largest number? I dont follow.. care to explain a bit further?
Van Kent,
I also think, that when martial law comes, there will a hard time. We will see things, which we don’t want to see. It will be a fight and the fittest or best connected or the most clever people will win. In regular times I’m going to retire in ten years. I’ve a good job and no clue if there will be a demand for my knowledge and especially in my age.
So I think not to work and to spend the time and money for some good years and then ok. Or to continue work and hope there will be harder but feasable.
Here in the south of Germany in the region Stuttgart there is a lot of automobile industry.
When the oil supply goes down there will be a lot of problem.
Van Kent,
The richest are those with real power now. If they allowed a reset how would they ensure to keep the real power?
Grete,
Dont worry. When the German auto industry goes, when oil is no longer affordable for consumers.. then the world economy also goes. Germany is still one of the strongest players.. yet.. it wont be the first to fall
Stuttgart sounds a bit difficult. Too many people all around. In central europe its not about being strong or smart.. when everything goes south.. central europe will be a difficult place.. but then again.. so will all other places be as well
think of germany as a shop selling top quality merchandise.
no matter how good, if their customer base vanishes, they go down along with everybody else
DJ,
The way I see it, during the transitioning period of martial law, the only riches will be clout. The ability to draw upon networks of people and get entire (other) networks activated.
What is cash, in a cashless society? What are bank accounts, when credit cards dont work? What use is silver and gold, when you cant make entire networks of people interacting getting more activated with one bar of gold. What good are stocks, when stock exchanges dont work. What good are government bonds, when governments are in default.
If I were in the elites, Id take control the grain silos, the wholesale central warehouses and the biggest farms. Then would make arrangements of which networks of people are doing what, for whom. Including the military and the biggest industries of the country.
DJ, you see if debt is seen as a problem.. and you eventually have to try to get rid of the debts.. but it cant be done by just making the other side of the equation zero. Also our pensions, bank accounts, our equity.. goes to zero.. what remains.. well as I see it, clout remains
Van K,
You mean collapse on purpose to have control of the process?
I suppose I have a hard time imagining martial law living in a demilitarized country where 20 policemen can’t handle a handful disobedient youths.
I thought:
Rich want to keep the system that makes them rich together
Democracy ensures the precariat has a decent standard
Middle class pays the bill
At some point the middle class premium shrinks so much that they don’t bother working
And then living standard reaches riot level.
Then comes collapse.
DJ,
I have also thought it would be an instacollapse.. the instacollapse scenario is still the most logical to me
What can I say.. other than.. Norm started it..
Norm has been wondering about they Theo-dictatorship..
I just continue Norms thoughts, on how an “controlled” collapse in to martial law and rationing could be made.. why it would be made.. and what it would mean for us.
Its sometimes scary how Norm “sees” the future structure forming, so I listen pretty closely what he has to say..
VK I have learned loads from Norman..followed his blog when it was still called “Your Medieval Future” years ago, read his book as soon as it came out, and still follow him regularly on Disqus (a commenting facilitator software for blogs, of which Resilience is a part and where Norman regularly destroys the delusional writers and commenters there)…however (and in all humility since Norman is on a completely other level than me) I question the Martial Law scenario…what do we all do in that scenario..do we still go to work during our shifts..who brings us our food..the NYSE is obviously closed permanently and with it all world markets taking with it pensions, insurance companies, etc….JIT is gone..I just cannot visualize it…that’s why I am more in the instadoom scenario…
I am with you… martial law might be implemented for a very short period as a last gasp to prevent total chaos…
But…
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
ITEOTW,
Yup, me too. Trouble seeing how to do international trade without currency.
But the cyber attack thingy got me thinking, if its”not our fault”.. its an outside threat.. Something to just soldier through.. because we are under attack.. then it could be made to happen.. globally
The basic trust in the market nodes is still there, its just that the cyber attack made all currencies fall.
Its not my fault I cant pay your salary.. its the cyber attack..
In that sort of environment you could bring in an entirely new sets of rules, new currencies, to the global economy, without crashing the trade.
If there are elders as you describe them, with sinister plans on how to stay wealthy and powerful. Isn’t that exactly what BAU is? They are wealthy and powerful today, they will do the same stuff tomorrow and stay wealthy and powerful!
I think we simply have a self organizing system which moves in only one direction. Increasing complexity. Increasing inequality. We will continue down this path until we cannot. Sooner or later there will be a critical mass of poor, starving and sick people which collapses the system.
Exactly. BAU is a system…. nothing sinister about it…
But BAU needs cheap to extract resources to function – particularly oil.
The system is running out of fuel — and it will react the same way that a car does when it runs out of fuel
Slow,
I dont believe in Eddys Elders. Think of like a bunch of old dudes sipping on some fine fine whiskey and hatching up some supermegahyperdyper master plan.. not happening.. I have tried to give instructions on simple plans to people, and seen them going sideways because people just misunderstood what I was saying.. if this happens to simple plans, what happsens to supermegahyperdyper master plans..
And I do believe in self correcting complex systems arranging themselves by the next need that comes along. Like a flock of birds, or a flock of fish etc.
And I see the many layers, and many compartmentalized fractions working independantly and also reacting to each others doings.
But Pentagon and the Alphabet agencies do have computer simulations and expert planners consultants playing war games in almost anything.
Now where does this leave us?
It becomes plausible to plan a global coup.. (BTW if misspelled, coop, that is the plan of the continuation of government in case of ‘enemy attack’ funny, right)
1. Lets first run a simple computer simulation of a cyber attack
2. The guy in the next department sees the cyber attack simulation and plans a continuation of economy plan according to it
3. However the collapse of the global economy starts to loom ahead..
4. A fourth agency starts prepairing for a global cyber attack by planning viruses that would be used in it. So that defencive software could be developed.
5. A consultant writes up a memo of impending doom by global system wide collapse
6. Several games are run in the Pentagon war room.
7. Insiders start to inform each other that its time to be proactive, otherwise everything goes to shit
8. Real life cyber attacks are released on the public so that its seen if everything runs according to the simulation.
9. The simulation shows that if done properly 99% of deaths can be avoided.
10. The department with the false news desk starts to feed their key resources with the appropriate disinformation, so that everything will stay in deep state control, just like planned
11. At a dinner party the alphabet agencies directors meet for a cigar in the pool room. One of them asks, when the cyber attack simulations will be a go? Everybody say it will be a go when the computer simulations shows its more likely to loose lives to an global economic meltdown. Choose the lesser of two evils..
12. The computer is set, with the instructions to set loose the malwares as soon as the global economy seems to be in free fall crash mode.
13. Nobody actually plans it all.. it all just happens..
14. Insiders srill remaining in control of the countries key resources
And all they were doing, was for a greater good..
You are looking at it incorrectly…
The Elders are are system…. they generally do not micro manage…. they do not call up Jeffrey Immelt and tell him how many jet engines to build this year…
Basically .. if you buy into the system — you succeed… if you reject the system you have a difficult time earning a living…
Heaven forbid that anyone try to rock the boat ….
“Some of the biggest men in the United States, in the field of commerce and manufacture, are afraid of somebody, are afraid of something. They know that there is a power somewhere so organized, so subtle, so watchful, so interlocked, so complete, so pervasive that they had better not speak above their breath when they speak in condemnation of it.” ― Woodrow Wilson
The Elders control the money supply …. (Fed)
Do you not agree with the axiom of ‘follow the money to find the power’
“Once a nation parts with the control of its currency and credit, it matters not who makes the nation’s laws. … Until the control of the issue of currency and credit is restored to government and recognized as its most sacred responsibility, all talk of the sovereignty of parliament and of democracy is idle and futile.” — Mackenzie King, Canadian Prime Minister 1935-1948.
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.” – Woodrow Wilson, after signing the Federal Reserve into existence
The men I quoted above are not anonymous posters on a web forum…. they were the leaders of major countries….
Yet you are just dismissing what they said ….
That’s like the men who shot JFK … being on their death beds and saying … we’d like to confess… and present detailed evidence …. that we assassinated JFK on the orders of the CIA management…
And you saying — I don’t believe that. It is absurd.
This sounds like a fairly realistic scenario. A few years ago, I participated in a symposium that was designed to give the US Navy an idea regarding what scenarios that they should be simulating. I know that one issue I pointed out is that funding would be too low for the Navy.
Just change the name if it helps. You really don’t think high level freemasons, jesuits, knights of malta, opus dei, intelligence agencies, global mafias are not pulling the strings to their benefit?
I mean yes on a higher level everything is ordained by genetics, informational field effects, natural law etc but at the level of human activity we can at least infer that these groups are looking after their best interests whatever they may be.
I recently read Rulers of Evil – an interesting read – which despite the title attempts to imply that all sides work for the greater good. It’s a tough conclusion to swallow given the actions we observe in many groups around the world but its easier to understand when looking at ecological systems. Individual organisms cannot exist in isolation and some fair better than others as a whole but it’s the whole that we should be focussing on. All actions whether we consider them good or bad form part of the whole. It’s just not clear to me that the combined results are always constructive.
This planet is the only source of life that we know of. It may flourish for a while and then become a dead planet in what would be the blink of an eye to a universal being. If that is the program that’s unfolding here then there’s not a lot we can do about it. The program simply runs its course until it’s done.
If humans were somehow able to take control of and rewrite that program i.e. through genetic engineering, nanotech etc then a branching off could occur – a mutation – something unexpected.
These activities have going on for some time now in places like china where the rules are ignored.
‘The program simply runs its course until it’s done’
+++++
The whole way the world and the universe in general evolves is quite strange. There are many random changes that take place. Changes that are able to persist are not at all random, however. The ones that tend to persist are ones that allow offspring and thus, the system as a whole, to dissipate more energy. We can think in terms of good and bad, but this is not the system really works. At some point, the whole approach reaches a limit. It then must collapse back. Eventually a new approach may evolve, using what was able to last from the previous step. But how much that includes of our human society is not clear. It may be that a whole different approach is needed.
FE says: “The system is running out of fuel — and it will react the same way that a car does when it runs out of fuel”
The master resource that underpins IC and all the other resources (including shale and tar-sands) is conventional oil…we do not have enough of it anymore to grow our global economy and the financial system needs growth or it dies. So my analogy would be the fuel in your car represents conventional oil, and the tank is half-full…however when your engine (which in my analogy is the financial system) buckles, it does not matter that you still have half a tank of fuel, it is now useless…and that is why, again with LTG, not taking into account the financial system, we might of had a few decades (they were calling for 2070)…take the financial system into account, and all of a sudden that year makes no sense. All of a sudden instead of decades, we’re talking a few years for the system to fail (post-2008)….and the way the world consumer is tapped out everywhere, it looks like we’re getting real close to Armageddon…
Oil plays a role, but I would argue that other energy sources are also important. Coal is especially important, because historically it has been cheap. It extraction has provided lots of jobs. Coal has underpinned much of the world’s industrialization. Oil can be used in small quantity, provided the overall cost of energy remains low. The peak oil movement has over-emphasized oil, and under-emphasized the need for a low cost energy mix. Also, the quantity of the energy mix needs to keep rising.
Grete
There are others living near you who also recognize the end of this system is approaching. If your close to Selters pay a visit.
http://da-ip.getmyip.com:8080/PDF/Branch%20Tour%20Brochures/Germany_Branch_Tour_Brochure_E.pdf
We sincerely hope that your visit to Bethel has been a
rewarding one. No doubt it has helped you to become
better acquainted with the work that Jehovah’s
Witnesses are doing to aid people in their quest for a
better future through God’s Kingdom.
May your visit to us be an encouragement to you in your efforts
to learn about our loving Creator and to live by his
righteous standards.
Visiting Hours: Visitors are welcome to take a guided
tour of our facilities. The regular visiting hours are:
Monday through Friday:
9:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. and
1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.
We request that larger groups inform us in advance of
their planned visit.
Location: Niederselters, Am Steinfels, 65618 Selters (Taunus).
Telephone: 49(0)6483 410
Now what were those coordinates…. ah…. 65618…. Selters…. Taunus…. good to go…
3…2….1…. FIRE!!!!
http://images.realclear.com/284245_5_.jpg
Cathal has a website called ‘before the collapse’ with a few ariticles she wrote that are worth checking out el mar
Surprisingly enough it would seem Cathal Haughian is the guy in the picture. He, not she..
https://beforethecollapse.com/author/cathalhaughian/
Hahaha for some strange reason all this time I assumed it was the Asian girl…
As did I….
He only responded to Eddys comments. If I remember correctly. And he never corrected anyone for saying her/she. So I guess Cathal doesnt actually mind being the she in that picture.. 😉
Well I’ll be damned. I just checked and Cathal is a man’s name and common in Ireland.
I think what is happening since 2014 is that there is no longer an oil price that is both affordable to the economy and profitable for the producer. That window closed in 2014. Since that time oil in storage has grown largely due to it being too expensive for the global economy. What we are seeing on the producer side is service companies cutting costs, exploration being halted, and selling assets. In a nutshell I believe that the oil industry is cannibalizing itself.
Oil industry’s swan song…
This is true Greg but remember money is only a proxy for energy. So underneath is an energy collapse.
I wonder if the oil majors are spending (wasting) even a nickel on exploration… the numbers they publish indicate they have cut back significantly but not totally — but they can’t exactly drop that number to 0 as that would cause panic.
They now consume over 50% of their production making them a greater consumer than producer. That was 2012 pivot point. Irreversible trend.
“If there is going to be a climate catastrophe,” says Ohio State glaciologist Ian Howat, “it’s probably going to start at Thwaites.”
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/the-doomsday-glacier-w481260
Hopefully that hunk of ice will float up my way… I could use some cubes for the post BAU party for the drinks…
Although I give it a small probability of lets say .5-5% for many reasons (global inter-contentedness at this stage), wouldn’t it be rich joke if the Chinese ponzi self destructed first without launching immediate global punishment on the rest (ala failed attempt to force non usd oil/gas payments etc), while the western ponzi manages to reanimate itself, circle the wagons, albeit for only few more years?
This would be crushing development for most of the doom and gloom global reset newsletter industries, since most of the world’s capital would slosh into usd, sterling, swiss frank, .. , instead.
The Chinese admin would likely implode and riots bring back the Clintonesque power faction, which reportedly lost to nationalists recently, and they would dance for few bucks like Yeltsin 2.0..
Improbable, dreamy, silly sub scenario, but remember this is a crazy world in the first place.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-18/chinese-insurer-warns-mass-defaults-social-unrest-due-mass-redemptions-run
Ch. H. Smith has been on the roll recently, plus more article links at the bottom..
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay17/disintegration5-17.html
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay17/economy-changed5-17.html
Thanks! This is parts of the same story I am writing about. Diminishing returns is causing the economy to disintegrate.
I agree…diminishing returns best describes what we are experiencing. The question I keep coming back to is what will be the proverbial straw that breaks the camels back. There are problems almost everywhere you look. And now (just days ago) another potential threat became a reality and was flying under the radar – cyber attacks. How far-fetched would it be to have every American’s bank accounts zero’d out by some potent cyber attack? Or the ATM shut down. Or, the electric grid shut down by cyber attack? The global economy is so vulnerable right now.
I actually like that cyber attack scenario a lot Greg..
We know the economy isnt working..
We know the debt levels are too high..
We know most consumers are about $200 from defaulting..
We know the entire global world economy should restructure..
We know nobody will ever admit free market global capitalism was destructive and is about to destroy the biosphere..
We know the string is about to snap..
We know we need martial law and rationing.. soon.. somehow..
But if we do it by WWIII, everything will be in smoking ruins..
If we do it by defaulting a major economy, the world JIT economy and the financial world crumbles..
If we do it by IMF SDRs or BIS SDRs, then people will riot..
Somehow that scenario you described there Greg sounded almost like the smallest of many evils. Bring in an unknown threat. That people havent already made their minds about who to blame. By making cyber attacks by some mysterious attacker the main villain, then everybody else can still be the white knight in shining armour. And a major cyber attack would let TPTB implement any policies that they feel they need. All the while bringing the world economy in an controlled crash, while having martial law and rationing among the populaces.
It all sounds so good, compared to all the other choices, it almost sounds exactly what I would do..
It was never the energy.. it was never the economy.. it was never the banks or the governments, it was a mysterious cyber attack that crashed the US economy..
Excellent!
‘We know we need martial law and rationing’
We absolutely do not need either of these — nor will we get either of these — these are both BAU Lite scenarios…
BAU = no growth = collapse of the financial system = total chaos
Sounds like the plot of Mr Robot…
Young, anti-social computer programmer Elliot works as a cybersecurity engineer during the day, but at night he is a vigilante hacker. He is recruited by the mysterious leader of an underground group of hackers to join their organization. Elliot’s task? Help bring down corporate America, including the company he is paid to protect, which presents him with a moral dilemma. Although he works for a corporation, his personal beliefs make it hard to resist the urge to take down the heads of multinational companies that he believes are running — and ruining — the world.
Yup, sounds a lot like the tv-programs and movies etc. etc. etc. coming out just before the last big false flag..
Its like they got a “script” how to program the public consciousness. Using plotlines in tv and movies.. then just feed and finance the right projects in Hollowood, before and after, voila. And when reality is stranger than fiction, then nobody deares to lay a finger of blame of the Reichstag fire on the deep state.. Brilliant strategy, actually..
Also would kinda explain why the deep state is so panicky about reigning in the Donald, fast.
The entertainment system certainly contributes to cognitive dissonance as people are no longer able to decipher reality from a fantasy. If fantasy is mirroring realty they won’t believe it. If reality mirrors fantasy it never really happened.
Critical thinking is gone for the vast majority.
I was speaking to a friend yesterday who lives in Canada… this is a guy with degrees from a top Canadian university — he runs the Ontario office of a listed company…
He was ranting on about how the Russians control Trump etc etc etc… how the oligarchs fund his empire …. who bailed him out when he was bankrupt…
Basically regurgitating whatever the MSM tells him to believe…
I told him that this was not true — I know the broker who did this deal —
he was not bailed out by Russians https://www.forbes.com/sites/mclifford/2015/09/11/when-donald-i-know-china-trump-met-his-match-on-a-hong-kong-golf-course/#48686952718d
If he believes this stuff… then everyone who believes the MSM’s role is to inform them (and that is just about everyone)… believes this stuff.
Parallel universe.
VK, you appear to have a very good handle on things. Reality and fiction appear to be interchangeable and intertwined to the point where they trip over each other.
Like when the BBC reported the collapse of building seven twenty minutes before it actually happened…
Buzz,
I think it was William J Casey who commented that: “our disinformation program is complete, when everything the US public believes is false”
When thinking, just one tiny bit, who the guy was who said that, and what implications such a comment has.. yikes..
Then its just our job to look at the things that actually happens. Where the money actually flows. Because we know there are entire institutions trying as best they can to influence our picture of reality.
Sometimes in my twenties, two decades ago, I just couldnt figure out why nobody had written the Thomas Paine ‘Common Sense’ of our times.. it took me decades to understand it couldnt be done.. at all..
Definitely too much information fog now. It’s difficult to know who to trust. Alternative media would like to take you by the hand while saying you can trust us we’re on your side and yet they parade ex cia ex nsa etc opperatives and whistleblowers in front of you as credible sources
as far as i’m concerned there is not one trustworthy source of information that I know of and I’ve been hunting for a long time
Disinformation, distraction, psyops, false narratives are the names of the game
I would resort to my own intuition and the reality in my immediate surroundings but what good is that – the equivalent of burying your head in the ground – unplugging
but it is tempting to unplug – I’ve just about had enough of chasing untruths. The search for meaning in this world is like trying to scratch an itch that can never be scratched. So what’s the point. Just live like a drone on autopilot attending to basic needs. My pets have a better time than I do. They’re not aware of their own mortality or of impending economic disaster. Ignorance truly is bliss.
Trust in the gods…. of FW… to bring you clarity
Buzz,
Sounds like things I have also thought through. Dont know much about meaning though. Sometimes for me its the want to figure this puzzle out. Sometimes its the want to be able to explain why it all went to shit. Sometimes its an deep disappointment in our species, is this really all we are good for. Sometimes its an intellectual problem to be solved, if this was to be survived, by somebody, somewhere, how would they do it? Mostly the meaning for me, is that Im completely free to do as I very well please, the world will end anyways 😉
But as for reliable information.. I dont think there is a one good source anywhere. Gail tells whats on her mind. Norm tells it like it is about energy. Robert Scribbler puts it out on climate. There are reliable nodes of information about some certain type of information here and there. But to have one to tell it all, like it is, I dont think such a thing exists. Except Eddy. There is one absolutely reliable source of information.. 😉
I still like Nafeez Ahmed and George Monbiot a lot. I also think Kate Raworth or Tim Jackson dont mean to fool people. They are just doing the best they can. In some ways that also goes for Orlov I guess. Lots of people are doing the best they can in these circumstances.. Guess people like Brandon Smith from alt markets, they mean well.. but are they a reliable source of information.. well..
Reminds me of the pin boards that the FBI use to connect all the suspects involved in a crime
Maybe if you build up enough of the map eventually something clicks… now everything makes sense… the thing you were looking for… it was under your nose the whole time
In real life you ask questions… you dive down the rabbit hole… you get some answers… but you get a whole lot more questions too
instead of becoming clearer the board gets darker and muddier… to the point where you start to question why you even need to know these things… what benefits will this knowledge bring when all aroun you are willfully blind?
At some point the need to protect your sanity… what’s left of your soul… kicks in and that’s when the desire to unplug arises
In my case it means being out in nature more and appreciating the small things… narrowing down to the activities that you truly value and taking out the trash
It looked like global trade had been enjoying a bounce towards the end of last year and in Q1 of 2017… but had it?
“…World economic growth and world trade growth typically go hand in hand. Perhaps the plateauing of world trade volumes—witnessed since the start of 2015—is over and the relentless expansion in global commerce is on again?
“Unfortunately, we will have to put the champagne back on ice, for now, at least.
“An analysis of the latest global export volume data, published in late April 2017 by the reputed World Trade Monitor, shows that almost all of the recent rise in volumes is due to a jump recorded in November 2016 (as Fig. 1 shows). Increases on a similar scale were not reported in the three subsequent months (the last for which data is available).
“As the six-month moving average indicated by the dotted line shows, the appearance of the end of the plateau of world trade is created entirely by the spike in recorded global export volumes in November 2016.
“Worse, further analysis of the raw World Trade Monitor data reveals that the jump in world export volumes recorded in November 2016 is a historical anomaly.
“The revival in export volume growth varies considerably across regions of the world economy. Compared to a global export volume expansion of 2.4 percent over the six months from September 2016 to February 2017, export volumes grew 0.1 percent in the Euro zone, 1.0 percent in the United States, 2.5 percent in Emerging Asia, 7.9 percent in Japan and a whopping 12.4 percent in Latin America. Other than Japan, the major poles of the world economy have seen feeble growth in export volumes. Simply put: To date, there has not been a broad-based recovery of world trade.
“While data on world trade volumes tends to get a lot of press, few articles report on developments in average world export prices. Such prices matter because they are an important determinant of profit margins from exporting. Moreover, falling export prices are likely to result in shippers and other transportation service providers facing more pressure from customers to lower charges.
“The latest data on world export prices is not good. The World Trade Monitor’s index of global export prices is 20.5 percent below its peak. Looking at the data over time much of the deterioration in export prices happened in 2015 and 2016. There is no comparable improvement in world export prices to match the strange jump in world export volumes in November 2016.
“This is not just a commodity price or currency phenomenon; every major region of the world has seen export prices languish below previous peaks, with the shortfall ranging from 9.8 percent for U.S. exporters to 45.9 percent for exporters from the Africa and the Middle East. Excess capacity in heavily traded sectors—such as steel and aluminum—as well as the spread of government-provided export incentives have almost certainly reduced prices in global markets.
“These findings are also important in light of the debate of the “global trade slowdown.” Leaving aside the fact that global export volumes in fact stopped growing, some analysts have argued that slow global trade growth is because global demand levels—in particular, capital expenditure levels—have been weak…”
http://www.brinknews.com/does-world-trade-bode-well-for-marine-shipping-think-again/
Those are good points. If capital expenditure levels are low, commodity prices will be low.
When we run into problems with diminishing returns, as was did in the years starting about 2000, necessary capital expenditures rise rapidly. We cannot keep up with needed rising expenditures, so commodity prices drop back.
“The banking system is loaned up,” Chanos said. “Because of the nature of the problem, and debts are still growing twice to three times as fast as the economy, a lot of loans are just simply new loans to keep the old loans current, so-called Ponzi finance.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-19/chanos-says-more-stresses-apparent-at-loaned-up-chinese-banks
If debts truly are growing at a rate two to three times as fast as the economy, that is a huge problem. Once debt to GDP reaches 100% it will quickly go to 200% then 400% then 800%. This can’t end well.
Yes.
1.8 vs 3.2 vs 5.2
https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2017/05/10/95-exponentials-unravelled/
Auto Loan Borrowers May Be Gaming Their Credit Scores, UBS Says
As many as one in five auto-loan borrowers admitted in a survey that their applications for debt contained inaccuracies, UBS strategists led by Matthew Mish wrote, meaning fraud could be more pervasive than lenders planned for. A growing number of borrowers have searched on the Internet for “credit score,” signaling that borrowers may be getting better at figuring out how to game their credit scores, the strategists said.
Part of that declining accuracy may have been because consumers became more adept at using tricks to boost their scores. A 2015 academic paper that looked at mortgage borrowers’ pre-crisis behavior found that “applicants have an incentive to manipulate their credit scores whenever they perceive that the marginal benefits in terms of more favorable loan terms exceed the marginal costs of raising scores.” The paper concluded that lenders, which use a mix of other ratings systems and data, relied too much on credit scores.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-17/auto-loan-borrowers-may-be-gaming-their-credit-scores-ubs-says
According to a petition filed by the New York City Department of Consumer Affairs, sales people at the Major World dealer group prepared dozens of auto loan applications containing inflated income and asset statements. The false information helped unqualified buyers purchase vehicles they could not afford.
In 2014, the I-Team reported on Margaret Zollner, a car buyer who accused staff at Major Chevrolet of tricking her into signing a loan application that falsely stated her income was $60,000, even though she was an unemployed senior citizen who needed food stamp benefits to get by.
Zollner’s application also reported that she owned a house, but she rents her home.
“They said I made $60,000 a year. I was on food stamps,” Zollner said.
At the time, a spokesperson for Major World suggested Zollner was responsible for signing her name to inaccuracies on the loan application.
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Auto-Loan-Fraud-Subprime-Lawsuit-Major-World-Car-Dealer-New-York-City-Consumer-Affairs-Sue-421622913.html
So if these are the types of schemes that the auto companies have been using to generate sales… combined with ultra low interest rates… extra long amortization periods…. and enormous rebates….
And yet still — auto sales are plunging….
What do they do to stop the plunge?
Keep an eye on this space. It is a big fat canary
http://hdwallpapersets.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/HD-Big-Fat-Canary-Bird-Wallpaper-.jpg
It’s all rather comical, if one can be detached about it. Homo Sapiens?
For non-English speakers, “Sapiens” means “wise.”
I have read that the same type of problem is occurring with Chinese home loans–inflated income and other items that would govern lending.
As long as housing prices keep going up …. everything will be awesome!
Used Vehicle Trade-in Values Sink, Hit New Vehicle Sales
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/18/used-vehicle-trade-in-values-sink-hit-new-vehicle-sales/
The car market was about the only segment doing well since the 2008 crash. If the car market bubble pops what will be left?
Law Enforcement?
THERE’S A NEW SHERIFF IN THE SWAMP !
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-X7lv3WhnL1o/WRzBsSgavnI/AAAAAAAARMo/AwWqbbvxokgaj7kgqEbNK4Ko-LdVFLgBACLcB/s400/Screen%2BShot%2B2017-05-17%2Bat%2B5.32.33%2BPM.png
https://vvattsupwiththat.blogspot.com/2017/05/theres-new-sheriff-in-town.html
Ideal for…..Somalia. Especially the death of detainees by thirst. That’s a special touch.
In souvenir pins:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAOPRoOUwAASJoN.jpg
In Russia:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAOSWKcVYAAat7o.jpg
From “Things that make you go, hmmmm…”
#FakeValor
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAOQR9mUIAArLYz.jpg
Retail – Restaurants – Autos
In decline….
The US economy has heart disease – Aids – diabetes
Don’t forget student debt! Perhaps we could call that ‘learning difficulties’.
“But what is alarming is student debt: this has exploded in recent years to unsustainable levels, and “serious delinquency” rates are already 10 per cent, shattering the confidence and spending power of one segment of the population. If interest rates rise, or growth slows down, these problems could spiral. Corporate leverage presents worries too.”
https://www.ft.com/content/6cb6d048-3b13-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
Clearly young people with all of this debt put off getting married and having families. They can’t afford homes. At most, they can buy a used car, or lease a car if interest rates are low enough. Student debt affects many areas of the economy.
This might be fake news. I’m not sure. Sounds reasonable.
“Washington DC. – In a 5-4 decision the Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that Productive Behavior Deficit Disorder treatment could not be used as grounds for exemption from any of the provisions of the landmark “Back to Work America” legislation that President Stump signed in to law earlier this year.
The suit had been filed by a Cambridge MA couple, Andre and Melissa Mohammad-Swartz.
The Mohammad-Swartzs were claiming exemption from a court ordered placement in a Back to Work America Brigade, under contract to Farley’s Homegrown Fruits and Vegetables LLC of Miami FL, due to their diagnosis and medication for PBDD. Farley’s Homegrown Fruits and Vegetables LLC (FHFC) operations include 71,000 acres of tomatoes, 9,000 acres of melons and 62,000 acres of mixed produce throughout Florida. The Mohamad-Swartzs have a combined student debt of $583,000 after they both received a PhD in Theoretical Psychology from eHarvard/Lite Univ. of Romulus MI. When they failed to make the $6019/month loan payments they fell under the new debt statutes and were converted to Payment In Kind.
In response to the high court ruling, Labor Secretary Ann Coulter stated that “PIK has given millions of unemployed Americans the incentive and opportunity to make a meaningful contribution to their country while they enjoy the dignity of addressing their financial obligations.”
Simon H. Lagree, CEO of Park Avenue Financials LLC (PKAF), stated that “We are in constant communication with the Justice Department in effort to help as many unemployed Americans as possible.” Park Avenue Financials LLC, A Wall Street firm that specializes in the new Personal Debt Obligations (PDO) investment instruments has lead the lobbing efforts to block any exemptions to the Back to Work America legislation.
“This decision should clear uncertainties in the market and we expect the demand for PDOs to rise in the coming months” stated Jason McSneer of Goldman Sachs. McSneer heads the PDO division of Goldman Sachs that bundles the Defaulted Student Loans (DSL) into marketable investment instruments.
“They can make their payments or they can pick tomatoes” added McSneer.
Condi Admits Another Iraq War Lie
http://theantimedia.org/condoleezza-rice-lie-iraq-war/
It’s a dreadful shame that Condi won’t be sculpted in marble, like the slave-beating psychopathic women of Ancient Rome, to be dug up and admired by future generations.
Oh, did I say future generations?
Well, the game goes on:
https://prod01-cdn05.cdn.firstlook.org/wp-uploads/sites/1/2017/05/s02e02_intercepted_2-1494987584-promo.jpg
The possibility of all hell breaking loose is not zero. The WSJ reports that Venezuelan security forces are at their breaking point. Young, underpaid members of the national police are often not given food or water while on duty, and are asked to constantly beat back rapidly escalating protests in scorching heat, around the clock. Also, police and soldiers are not immune to the food shortages and economic collapse that the rest of the country is suffering through. The loyalty of the security services to the President no longer appears rock solid.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-18/venezuelas-oil-production-brink-collapse
Post BAU … martial law will not hold…
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold
I’ve “heard” Venezuela is a victim of EROI (among other things). Will that oil stay in the ground?
They are caught up in this:
Steven Kopits from Douglas-Westwood said the productivity of new capital spending has fallen by a factor of five since 2000. “The vast majority of public oil and gas companies require oil prices of over $100 to achieve positive free cash flow under current capex and dividend programmes. Nearly half of the industry needs more than $120,” he said http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/11024845/Oil-and-gas-company-debt-soars-to-danger-levels-to-cover-shortfall-in-cash.html
And because they have pissed off the US …. there is no help forthcoming ….
Wow if the security forces break down that will be very short period of martial law. That is very scary. I would have thought the security forces in Venezuela could hold out several years at least. What has it been now, a year?
There are those who think that the US military or private security forces are going to protect the likes of George Soros and other elites post BAU.
It’s just not going to happen. When they realize that the elites have nothing to offer — they will eventually turn on the elites and take from them and/or they will return to their families — where they are needed.
It’s at least a year since they went to electricity two days a week (don’t know what happened with that? Maybe it rained?)
And UN still doesn’t consider Venezuela has famine.
“Spare parts”
another example of bau collapsing global penicillin shortages
https://qz.com/984705/syphilis-is-on-the-rise-because-penicillin-isnt-profitable/
The big art auctions are underway at Christie’s and Sotheby’s, as usual at this time of year, and the feeling is by general consent somewhat ‘subdued’, but not disastrous.
Everything down from the last peak in 2014-15, but around 75% of lots selling (although in some cases the auction houses guarantee sales, in one auction this came to 20% of the total lots offered).
So, the super rich art speculators still have money to play with, but are being cautious. The art dealer Gagosian was spending confidently on major works.
Both Christie’s and Sotheby’s had their ‘star’ lots withdrawn at the last minute, although one was rather inferior.
It’s a wonderful game to play: a Basquiat sold for $341k in 1989, made $35 million last night.
100k a sq inch seems reasonable to me
A friend bought a twig from one of these Contemporary dealers, I forget the artist’s name.
The act of selecting and cutting the wood made it The Twig apparently, a work of art rather than just a….twig. Like Michelangelo turning a block of stone into art, that sort of thing.
After buying a new house, he realised -surprisingly – that The Twig just didn’t look good anywhere he put it , so he consigned to the original dealer, to sell on commission.
The Greater Fool who is willing to take on the The Twig hasn’t yet been found. A price reduction is being discussed.
Any takers?
WARNING: Twigs can go down as well as up. Past rip-offs are no guide to future value.
He could plant it?
Or burn the effing thing. I think my art appreciation has severe practical limits.
Art is a racket
no really… a tennis racket properly framed could fetch millions
https://www.upcyclethat.com/tennis-racket-art/
Venezuela: Where supplies are few and pain is everywhere:
http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/17/americas/venezuela-pain-and-poverty/
This makes me want to buy more food. The little girl with the bowl of rice reminds me of my daughter. I don’t really give a rat’s behind about adults, but watching children go hungry is going to be soul crushing. Jesus, we really made a mess of things……
I also have children of that age, heartbreaking stuff. There will come a time for this misery in the wealthier parts of the world as well, until then I’m thankful for each day of BAU!
If you buy or grow more food….
The fathers of children in the same situation as that child …. will kill you for your food….
And mothers will be outside your farm gate with empty bowls… begging for food…. and if you cannot or will not feed them … they will climb the fences and take the food from your garden…
If you shoot them during the day … they will hide in the surrounding area and raid your garden at night.
I recommend a rock cut and a fast car — or ITEO’s solution — a tall building ….
Or perhaps borrow from both solutions and drive a fast car off of a very high cliff and smash onto the rocks below
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/-J1ADlO_ijA/hqdefault.jpg
I like the idea FE 🙂
https://youtu.be/4z88U915uq8
http://68.media.tumblr.com/b3a7faac297d171b8b5a781bfcc67a29/tumblr_nc9xz7PnUJ1r9eepuo1_1280.jpg
http://kfmb.images.worldnow.com/images/24990253_BG3.jpg
That’s what FE talking about….
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gsNfw-336Ok
Well, now we know the ending…..spoiler
I’m still holding out hope that your “Elders” have contingency plans to avert the radioactivity. If they don’t, a rock cut (or more likely a less dramatic fistful of pills and bottle of scotch) will be available. As long as there is no radioactivity, I remain unconvinced preparation is futile. You claim all the time that there will be no food. If that is true, one only has to make it long enough for the bulk of humanity to starve to death and reduce the population to a sustainable level. I don’t know what that number is, but surely when the world population numbers in the millions rather than billions some sort of quasi-primitive existence will be possible. If there is no food or electricity, I can’t imagine it taking longer than 3-9 months for the bulk of humanity to perish. That is a long time to hide out, granted, but some minimal probability of survival exists. Mr. D.N.A. commands I make a run at it.
I don’t blame anyone for making a hasty exit stage left post SHTF, but the certainty with which you proclaim this an extinction level event smacks of a religious belief. It also does a disservice to those people who might be in a position to make a run at surviving. Its good to have one’s eyes open to the severity of the situation, but less helpful to proclaim an oracle-like ability to see how this all plays out. I think the fact that none of the “peak oil” guru’s saw the impact of CB printing and unconventional oil stands as testament to that…….
We can only advance hypotheses, it’s true. No-one truly knows.
But there seems to be a fair body of well-informed scientists who have concluded that we may very well face a bottle-neck event, perhaps leading to the extinction of our species, and many other life forms.
Many of them started out feeling rather more optimistic, I believe, but have been reluctantly swayed by the weight of evidence as it accumulates. Even Tainter was originally much more optimistic by his own admission.
All previous collapsing civilisations have collapsed back to the still existing ‘primitive’ level (in fact, quite sophisticated in terms of knowledge, skills and practical intelligence) that preceeded them ie. farmers, hunters and gatherers, fishermen, etc. A town only survived if it could still function as a village or little port of some kind.
Only the higher structures and urban populations went away, or put another way, the icing was eaten away, but one still had the cake.
Anyway, we could ask, if feeling hopeful: can we map the regions and identify the societies
1/ Where such primitive structures are still almost completely intact and not hollowed out by fossil fuels and easy transport of freight and food,
and 2/ What regions might still offer an ecological niche to humans to carry out these activities, in the light of the horrendous ecological catastrophe which is upon us – and accelerating?
In one or two spots on the globe this might indeed be possible where these two are found to coincide: any ideas anyone?
The tragedy, it seems to me, is that our cheap-energy civilization was distinguished by the destruction of the original structures,(hugely accelerated post-1945); the ecological niches to which they are adapted, and their associated bodies of knowledge and cultures. It couldn’t in fact operate any other way.
Xabier, I tend to agree. Believe me, I understand the severity of the situation. I just think that most Non-desert or arctic environments will support SOMEBODY once population levels fall sufficiently. The lack of skillset will preclude most from living primitively even if they otherwise would be amongst the survivors. I do think the surviving infrastructure will act as a cushion of sorts. Shovels, saws, lighters, clothing, knives, guns, etc. Will be around in some form for quite a while. Lets hope it will be enough to help survivors relearn necessary primitive skills.
As to best locations, I suspect initially low population density areas will be the best. Post die-off, anywhere that can grow food and not be subject to weather extremes should be fine. All of this assumes radiation is not an issue, of course. If we get nuclear war and cooling pool cookoff, all bets are off.
Bakhtia?
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1683876/
All that will happen if anyone survives is they will try to restart the industrial revolution — using the only source of fuel available – trees…
They will cut down all the trees in close proximity — and all that will happen is extinction gets delayed a few decades.
Why is it that so many people are concerned about the extinction of humans?
Can’t you see that we are responsible for extincting millions of other species? That the sooner we are gone the better?
In northern regions it is not possible to deforest without fossile fuels. (Of course we may mess up climate so much so there are no more northern regions.)
“Can’t you see that we are responsible for extincting millions of other species? That the sooner we are gone the better?”
There is the misanthropy that I always suspected underlined your views. I believe that humans have just as much right to exist as any other species. In fact, I’ll go further, and posit that without human beings to appreciate their existence, other species don’t matter at all. There could be millions of other planets like ours, teeming with non-human life on the other side of the galaxy, and that fact would be utterly meaningless without a human (or other intelligent lifeform) to appreciate it.
I don’t want us to go extinct, I want us to survive for as long as possible. Obviously we are facing a tremendous die-off to realign our numbers with the ecosystem, but most of those people were going to be dead in the next 80 years regardless. The fact that I am going to die one day doesn’t mean I don’t care about the continuation of humanity (and especially my own descendants). If I die at 40 from the apocalypse, or 90 from old age, I still want my children and our species to go on…………
How humans are driving the sixth mass extinction
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/radical-conservation/2015/oct/20/the-four-horsemen-of-the-sixth-mass-extinction
If we continue to exist long enough — we will eventually extinct every other species on the planet.
http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/3/13/1426261416263/5682d210-a2d7-4d70-8e4b-a4d40db9cc57-2060×1236.jpeg
Let’s say you were an intelligent life form from another galaxy … and you were hovering over earth observing things…
And you had a very powerful weapon that could wipe out any species on earth with the push of a button.
What would you do?
Karl says: ” In fact, I’ll go further, and posit that without human beings to appreciate their existence, other species don’t matter at all. There could be millions of other planets like ours, teeming with non-human life on the other side of the galaxy, and that fact would be utterly meaningless without a human (or other intelligent lifeform) to appreciate it.”
You bring up a great point that I have thought to myself for years…We know that we have been devastating to the biosphere (probably well beyond repair when we disappear)…HOWEVER…if there was no sentient being to take in that this biosphere exists in the first place…does it really exist??? My line of thinking is in the same vain as “If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?” In other words, if we did not exist, there would be no species to perceive this biosphere…and in that case, did it really exist in the first place??…What a Catch-22…we come into existence, and therefore there is a species that is able to perceive that this planet exists, but this same species ends up destroying it….we don’t come into existence, the planet goes on it’s merry way, but with no one to perceive this planet, it might as well not exist…
Very much so
Dimitri Orlov in his latest book proposes to go to Siberia. I do not think that many people can survive a winter in Siberia. You will die if you lack one single important tool. Russia actually has already collapsed and many other countries have as well. In these countires the people know how to get by. I think there will be many places to stay. but you must relocate to a place that does not have a pizza hut in more than 1000 km…
When the USSR ‘collapsed’ there was still:
– electricity
– petrol
– a functioning govt
– police
– military
– shops selling food and other goods
– medical care
– functioning sewage and water systems
– schools
This is not really collapse at all.
Compared to what is headed our way this would be considered a paradise.
The meanest ghetto of Manila would be considered a paradise.
Dear FE,
Agreed
I would much rather collapse in the tropics than in siberia
you can survive half naked or go all the way… chasing small reptiles and roasting them in the sun
possibly… for a while at least…
until the neighbours show up…
Buzz,
Tropics have a few problems..
wet bulb temperatures mean that its so hot and humid, that if you go outside, sweating doesnt help.. the body isnt cooled at all.. going outside, walking or working in wet bulb temperatures results in one simple outcome..
Also the tropics have a huge risk of becoming areas with absolutely huge forest fires. At some point we will not have Brazilian rain forests at all..
Finally the tropics have the risk of level six hurricanes. Not level five. But level six. If wondering what a level six hurricane is, no worries, its something we havent seen ever, yet. But they are sure to come while the seas heat up a bit more.
Also worth reminding is that the safest place to be, would be the places with the fewest people. The tropics should be pretty crowded with almost every other of your basic millionaire owning a sailing boat..
So Siberia sounds marginally better to me. The only problem with Siberia is, it will have its own huge fires. The weather should be totally chaotic. And most of the vegetation that you know, wont grow at all in some years, being replaced by new invasive species.
So maybe Alaska?
Bali is a rainforest so there are no forest fire issues… there are also no extreme storm events because it is within 5 degrees of the equator….
However the problem with Bali is that virtually all land is farmed using petro chemical inputs… the soil is dead…. if those inputs are no longer available the people of Bali will not be able to feed themselves.
It is one of the main reasons I left.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/lowres.cartoonstock.com/food-drink-vegetable-overcook-cook-cooking-chefs-bdin43_low.jpg
Bakhtia.
Lykows.
Anyhow … it must be a place horrible enough for most people to prefer death, otherwise it will be to crowded.
I grew up in Northern Ontario — basically Canada’s Siberia… it would be one of the last places I’d choose to be come the end of BAU….
– 35 does not work for me…. and a growing season of a month….
Good luck with that Mr Orlov….
That reminds me… where is our alaskan friend?
TBH I’m quite happy where I am…
http://spainguides.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/galicia-spain.jpg
waiting for it all to go down
Xab I have no doubt that if we were simply facing an economic collapse due to unaffordable energy, we would survive in quite large numbers. Numbers enough to continue the species and who knows life could possible be better after a certain time. Especially if human numbers crash to allow environmental recovery, along with land, sea and ocean fauna regeneration.
But, but and but…….humans have not reached 7.5Bn instantly. On the run-up we’ve done tremendous, near term irreparable damage, (the damage being done now by the 7.5Bn is exponential on top of that) led by atmospheric pollution, land degradation (soil erosion, salt and other contamination) and species extinction.
So it’s not simply crashing from overshoot to low numbers Those low numbers have to not just eke out a living in the world described above, they have to cope with the ravages of global warming wrecking the climate and all the changes that result. As you describe the icing going leaving the cake, I think the cake itself is probably a light sponge……full of holes.
Hi Karl,
Beautifully said!
Fast Eddy says hi!
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s–U0ngle4o–/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/18lsw4s7dzd9bjpg.jpg
The only way to control spent fuel ponds is by cooling them using high tech equipment over many years. If another option existed — we would already being seeing it.
Food…
Soil that is farmed using petro-chemical inputs — will support no crop once the outputs are stopped – without years of intensive rejuvenation involving organic inputs.
Effect of Pesticides on soil fertility (beneficial soil microorganisms)
Heavy treatment of soil with pesticides can cause populations of beneficial soil microorganisms to decline. According to the soil scientist Dr. Elaine Ingham, “If we lose both bacteria and fungi, then the soil degrades. Overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have effects on the soil organisms that are similar to human overuse of antibiotics.
Indiscriminate use of chemicals might work for a few years, but after awhile, there aren’t enough beneficial soil organisms to hold onto the nutrients” (Savonen, 1997). For example, plants depend on a variety of soil microorganisms to transform atmospheric nitrogen into nitrates, which plants can use. Common landscape herbicides disrupt this process: triclopyr inhibits soil bacteria that transform ammonia into nitrite (Pell et al., 1998); glyphosate reduces the growth and activity of free-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria in soil (Santos and Flores, 1995) and 2,4-D reduces nitrogen fixation by the bacteria that live on the roots of bean plants (Arias and Fabra, 1993; Fabra et al., 1997), reduces the growth and activity of nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae (Singh and Singh, 1989; Tözüm-Çalgan and Sivaci-Güner, 1993), and inhibits the transformation of ammonia into nitrates by soil bacteria (Frankenberger et al., 1991, Martens and Bremner, 1993).
Mycorrhizal fungi grow with the roots of many plants and aid in nutrient uptake. These fungi can also be damaged by herbicides in the soil. One study found that oryzalin and trifluralin both inhibited the growth of certain species of mycorrhizal fungi (Kelley and South, 1978). Roundup has been shown to be toxic to mycorrhizal fungi in laboratory studies, and some damaging effects were seen at concentrations lower than those found in soil following typical applications (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987; Estok et al., 1989). Triclopyr was also found to be toxic to several species of mycorrhizal fungi (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987) and oxadiazon reduced the number of mycorrhizal fungal spores (Moorman, 1989).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2984095/
Organic inputs will be hard to come by considering nothing can be grown – and most if not all animals are killed and eaten.
Less than 1% of all farmland globally is farmed organically (and most of that land is scrub land suitable only for sheep or goats)
Get ready to starve. No matter where you are:
https://assets.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/agriculture3.png
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/which-countries-have-the-most-organic-agricultural-land/ (note – most organic land in Australia is rubbish and supports sheep only)
This year I just popped the seeds into the ground
ground that has been untouched for many years i.e. not tilled
I gave the grass a trim first
all the plants are growing nicely with no further imputs
if it gets too dry I’ll water them at night
no tilling – no loss of nutrients – plants are naturally resilient to pests
the only problem is grass management
and of course the scale
on a larger scale you may want to leave enough room between rows for a mower of some sort
but gasoline
so yeah.. we’re screwed
There is land all over the place that will grow food organically. Plenty of people around me have yards and fields that haven’t been soaked in petrochemicals. Is there enough to support 7 billion of us? No. Its too little by several orders of magnitude. But SOMEONE could farm it once numbers decline sufficiently. Take the continental USA. Maybe it can only support 1 million humans post-crash. That is a 99.7% die off. Devastating for the people who die, but a long way from extinction. If there is no radioactivity, collapse is survivable for SOMEONE.
Climate change is another unknowable. Once the great burning stops and plant life rebounds, there may be feedback loops in the opposite direction that we don’t know about that will prevent run away climate change.
There is going to be plenty of death and misery to go around as mankind goes through the bottleneck. It is a reasonable position to decide to check out via a rock cut before that happens. That doesn’t change the fact that there is enough unknown about the details of the bottleneck to preclude us from calling it unsurvivable. Everyone has to decide for themselves, but I plan on soldiering on to the bitter end. Maybe I’ll live to regret it. Maybe I’ll die an old man on an organic, electric-less farm. Time will tell……
I look out my window and I see 5 hectares of land that I own — not soaked in petro chemicals.
Could I grow crops in that land? Nope.
1. The soil is not of high enough quality to grow anything much in — it would require immense amounts of organic fertilizer before I could grow anything in it
2. It is not properly fenced to keep out vermin such as rabbits
3. Fortunately I have gravity fed water — so that would not be a problem
4. Winter has just started.
Here’s the thing…
Imagine today the shops closed. Do you have seeds? Do you have a water supply? What do you do about pests eating your crop? What do you eat while you wait for your first crop?
With no radiation collapse is survivable — but the people who will survive will be people who are not surrounded by neighbours who will be begging borrowing or stealing your food.
They will be surrounded by others who are already living a relatively sustainable lifestyle…
We call these people subsistence farmers
https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/00/3300-004-D76E0E25.jpg
Oh absolutely I’m with you… wouldn’t miss it for the world
I don’t fear death. Come close plenty of times. But I wouldn’t want to experience prolonged pain and suffering if that was the case. Had enough of that too.
If chaos descends on your local area and there’s no way to avoid it then you can be reassured that any suffering should over quickly.
I think cities would become hellholes fairly quickly.
Watered them….. you turned on the faucet? Where did the water come from – any pumps involved?
Funny how people believe that they could easily grow enough food to feed themselves…
I have a massive fenced garden with raised beds — massive piles of compost — a big green house… gravity fed water… a big orchard ….and I long ago concluded I would never be able to stay alive if I had to rely on that for food.
Ignorance is apparently bliss
FE (the one that makes me chuckle)
I live in one of the most fertile territories on the planet
We are home to some of the best seafood in the world, some of the best wines in the world, fruit, veg and dairy, wild boar, rabbits and other assorted eddible wildlife in lush forests full of pine, chestnuts and eucalyptus
Really you should see our harvest every year
Everyone here owns a lot of land
When necessary whole communities work together to achieve goals – it’s how they survived in the past
We are very lucky to have our own natural gravity fed mountain filtered mineral water supply – huge tanks in every town means we have more than we need even when the tourists turn up in the summer
And before you say it… my ancestors have been working these territories for hundreds of years without any modern inputs – many still do
There exists a culture of conservitism and almost religious fervour for the old ways, traditions and agricultural methods… even among the youth
The people are vicious… they defend what’s theirs – enough said
Now… does any of that mean we will survive economic collapse?
No… but we’re better positioned than most to give it our best shot
Funny… I live in one of the most fertile areas of the world — I look across the valley and it is farmland as far as the eye can see — there is effectively no winter here – I can grow some vegetables in winter — everyone owns a lot of land – at 5 hectares our property is one of the smallest…
There is plenty of sea food — deer and pigs are pests — there is no hunting season – you can shoot as many as you can find — at any time of the year — and leave them in the bush to rot.
Unfortunately nobody I know — and a lot of them grow food — is self-sustaining. Not a one.
Unfortunately when you shoot at animals on a regular basis — they go deep into the bush away from humans.
Unfortunately catching fish is not that easy when you don’t have petrol powered boats.
Unfortunately within one tank of petrol of me are nearly 1 million people — who think that the north of the south island is where there will be food post BAU — what they dont know is that 99.9999% of all crops grown here are reliant on petro chemical inputs.
Unfortunately here are nearly 10,000 people in a town that is less than a 90 minute walk from me.
Unfortunately a huge percentage of people in NZ own guns.
Funny…. I long ago realized I would starve.
Try the Fast Eddy challenge — turn off the power for a week – eat only what you produce, hunt or gather — no petrol allowed. Wash clothes by hand. Cook on a fire. Chop all wood by hand.
Until you have done that please f789 off with your doomsday prepper shit.
Buzz–remind me where you live–not that I am ready to move to joint you. I just am curious.
FE
Charming as ever
Who said anything about doomsday prepping – no bunkers here
You typically made some snide remarks and assumptions to which I responded to clarify my situation – I told you the truth… nothing more nothing less
I even finished up by saying that in the event of economic collapse the best we could do is make a go of it which basically means last as long as possible
I was simply implying that compared to most of todays city dwellers with no practical farming hunting fishing experience rural areas are a step ahead for what it’s worth – which I agree may not be much
All the trials you mention in your list I used to do in my youth in the summer hols… for fun!
And like I said people here have been living that way for hundreds of years with no industrial inputs
Like this…
http://l7.alamy.com/zooms/1cb85f391e9c4798a6613db8b6521a51/a-traditional-galician-cart-pulled-by-oxen-on-carnota-beach-near-muros-amey3y.jpg
That’s my local beach by the way – we used to load up with seaweed and other useful stuff
Dude…why can’t you just enjoy what you have for as long as it lasts instead of getting up in everybodys face like you have something to prove
I would love to see your psyche profile
I sense a lot of fear in this one
Nice photo.
Fortunately for those guys the soil they tilled was not poisoned with urea…
And there were no spent fuel ponds yet.
I might add that it takes a certain brand of stupid — to not recognize that the end of BAU will not resemble 1750.
If a person is just starting to learn about the problem, assuming that the end of BAU will resemble 1750 is not a bad idea. A person usually has to work in baby steps toward understanding the problem. The problem is not that they are stupid; they are simply less far along in understanding the predicament we are facing.
Right…. but surely they would be open to accelerating along the learning curve with the help of the gods?
I wish I would have had access to some gods when I started the journey
it will not resemble 1750—because it is impossible to unlearn knowledge
in 1750 you died of most diseases—we will do that in the future but with the knowledge that diseases are curable—therein lies our future strife
Gail
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galicia_(Spain)
http://fotomusica.net/Galicia/mapagalicia.gif
It takes an even bigger brand of stupid to not realise that that photo is recent
There are no gaps in my understanding of what the end of BAU represents – in fact I understood it as soon as I came across this material many years ago
Both you and Gail have mistaken my description of Galician life as it was and still is in some parts as some kind of solution post BAU
Why do you think I posted a video of people being chased and eaten by zombies? Because I understand what happens when rules are thrown out the window and chaos ensues
That doesn’t change the fact that my ancestors survived in this region for hundreds of years with hard work and no industrial inputs. Are you really going to dispute that?
But from now until the collapse of BAU there exists a window of opportunity to enjoy the rural lifestyle as much as possible and even for a while as the dominoes fall before the swarming hordes turn up and consume everything in their path within a matter of days
I used to ride in one of those cow carts 30 years ago and most of the land here is still urea free
‘That doesn’t change the fact that my ancestors survived in this region for hundreds of years with hard work and no industrial inputs. Are you really going to dispute that?’
Nope.
But they would not be able to survive the end of BAU if they were to be magically reincarnated.
1. The soils are ruined by urea – nothing will grow in them if you do not continue to apply urea
2. What organic farms there are will quickly be over run by hunger people.
3. All animals that can provide manure for compost will be killed and eaten by hungry people.
4. 4000 spent fuel ponds will release 56,000,000 Hiroshimas of radiation that will quickly enter the food chain and kill anyone who might survive the mass starvation
Here – let me make it easy for you to reject all the facts… hum along….
Soil that is farmed using petro-chemical inputs — will support no crop once the outputs are stopped – without years of intensive rejuvenation involving organic inputs.
Effect of Pesticides on soil fertility (beneficial soil microorganisms)
Heavy treatment of soil with pesticides can cause populations of beneficial soil microorganisms to decline. According to the soil scientist Dr. Elaine Ingham, “If we lose both bacteria and fungi, then the soil degrades. Overuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides have effects on the soil organisms that are similar to human overuse of antibiotics.
Indiscriminate use of chemicals might work for a few years, but after awhile, there aren’t enough beneficial soil organisms to hold onto the nutrients” (Savonen, 1997). For example, plants depend on a variety of soil microorganisms to transform atmospheric nitrogen into nitrates, which plants can use. Common landscape herbicides disrupt this process: triclopyr inhibits soil bacteria that transform ammonia into nitrite (Pell et al., 1998); glyphosate reduces the growth and activity of free-living nitrogen-fixing bacteria in soil (Santos and Flores, 1995) and 2,4-D reduces nitrogen fixation by the bacteria that live on the roots of bean plants (Arias and Fabra, 1993; Fabra et al., 1997), reduces the growth and activity of nitrogen-fixing blue-green algae (Singh and Singh, 1989; Tözüm-Çalgan and Sivaci-Güner, 1993), and inhibits the transformation of ammonia into nitrates by soil bacteria (Frankenberger et al., 1991, Martens and Bremner, 1993).
Mycorrhizal fungi grow with the roots of many plants and aid in nutrient uptake. These fungi can also be damaged by herbicides in the soil. One study found that oryzalin and trifluralin both inhibited the growth of certain species of mycorrhizal fungi (Kelley and South, 1978). Roundup has been shown to be toxic to mycorrhizal fungi in laboratory studies, and some damaging effects were seen at concentrations lower than those found in soil following typical applications (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987; Estok et al., 1989). Triclopyr was also found to be toxic to several species of mycorrhizal fungi (Chakravarty and Sidhu, 1987) and oxadiazon reduced the number of mycorrhizal fungal spores (Moorman, 1989).
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2984095/
Organic inputs will be hard to come by considering nothing can be grown – and most if not all animals are killed and eaten.
Less than 1% of all farmland globally is farmed organically.
Get ready to starve. No matter where you are:
https://assets.weforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/agriculture3.png
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/08/which-countries-have-the-most-organic-agricultural-land/ (note – most organic land in Australia is rubbish and supports sheep only)
At least the poor girl has a smartphone, too bad you can’t eat apps.
You can eat insects!
Good Trip to Cuba
Spam.
I have been to Cuba. Shitty hotels….
I will never thank Gail enough for the existence of this blog. And also his commentators whom I come to read every morning.
Yes, this may be a long way to see the big picture, you have to look, read, take paths without issues, turn around, go wrong, doubt. And then one day we get this 3D vision of our system and human nature. What a shock !
After that it is a rather lonely path because we are shifted with those who continue to dope to hope. But, I do not forget that I also doped to hope in the past.
I am not aware of such a blog in France, pity.
Continue, I like your little group, I learn a lot and sometimes I laugh to read you.
Enjoy the present.
Phrase of the year — “dope to hope”
Love it!!!
How did FW come into being?
Why does Gail write articles when there is no financial gain?
There are perhaps a dozen+ people who get it. How did we end up on FW?
Why was the internet created?
Who created it?
What about google?
Perhaps there was a single purpose — FW — to bring a handful of people together — out of 7.5 billion.
Now what?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/47655000/jpg/_47655041_gods.jpg
I knew it had to do with my Greek origins 😉
Now what ? No solutions. Dionysos ! So, go drink a good wine (of course french wine ;-)), in honor of Gail who succeeded to create a community by understanding the energy.
Now what?
I reckon Scotty beams up the gods of FW at the last minute… we all live happily ever after.
And everyone else starves.
Deification? About bloody time!
So we passed the test?
https://goo.gl/images/EXsULo
“I am not aware of such a blog in France, pity.”
Dom, there’s Matthieu Auzanneau that has a blog called Oil Man…he posts sporadically, but he has had some nice write-ups on the topic of oil:
http://petrole.blog.lemonde.fr/author/petrole/
Bon courage! 🙂
Thanks Iteotwawki.
I read his blog, his articles are interesting. His blog belongs to ”Le Monde”. ”Le Monde” belongs to a group ”Bergé-Pigasse-Niel”. The majority of french press belong to financial, industrial groups. We call them ”les chiens de garde” (guard dogs, in english ?).
I find informations by french blog ”alternatifs”.
The interest of Gail articles is overview: oil pic, renewables energies, finance, economy, climate… + the debates between readers.
Haha “les chiens de garde”? We don’t have that expression in French Québécois!
You are from Québec ? You speak french ?
French media = propagande
Yes and Yes 🙂
All MSM = propagande….
LOL FE very true!!
Super que tu parles français !
Est-ce toi qui a parlé de J. Krishnamurti. Il a fait partie de mes lectures il y a quelques années et m’a aidé à comprendre la nature humaine, parmi d’autres écrivains.
Je pense que les personnes qui ne voient pas l’effondrement à venir ne comprennent pas la nature humaine.
Toujours plus, encore plus, encore….
Le désir, un puits sans fond.
Salut Dom, non je ne le connais pas vraiment…c’est juste qu’au fil des ans sur les centaines d’heures dont j’ai passé à lire sur notre “predicament” (il y a pas de mot équivalent en français) lorsque je vois une citation que j’aime je la copie sur un fichier Word. Il s’adonne qu’une fois, je me souviens pas trop dans quel contexte, l’article avait cité Krishnamurti et j’avais adoré, car c’est tellement vrai!!!!
“It’s no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society.” -Jiddu Krishnamurti
Tu as raison c’est incroyable que PERSONNE ou du moins presque personne ne voit venir l’effondrement complet de notre société industrielle (dans mon entourage, qui est composé de monde quand même éduqué, ils n’ont aucune idée)…mais c’est mieux comme ça, car si tout le monde le savait, il y aurait la panique et l’effondrement se produirait encore plus vite…dans tout les cas, ça fait au moins depuis 6 ans que je sais ce qui nous attends et en conséquence je profites de chaque jour…d’ailleurs je viens de finir un tour de bicyclette de 50km par une superbe journée ensoleillée ici à Montréal…ce sont des moments que je savoure pleinement (beaucoup plus que si je pensais qu’il me restait encore des décennies devant moi, qui ne sera clairement pas le cas!)
Je te souhaite Carpe Diem Dom!
The end of the Aussie Dream run (26 years without recession, 18 years of housing bubble) draws ever nearer…with many completely crazy-eyed desperate to climb aboard the Ponzi any way they can…
Genworth Mortgage Insurance Warns Of Risky Home Loan Deposits (behind a paywall)
The nation’s largest mortgage insurer has warned that borrowers are scraping together deposits with credit card debt, parental loans and other forms of risky “unsecured debt” as tougher regulations force lenders to require larger deposits.
“The spread of the global financial crisis (GFC) from one country to another over days, weeks and months can now unfold before your eyes thanks to a ground-breaking network model.
“The model, which tracks how the financial crisis moved and proliferated like a virus through the governments and banks of 18 countries between 2006 and 2015, has been developed by a research team at the University of Melbourne’s Faculty of Business and Economics…”
https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/articles/picturing-the-credit-crunch
Meanwhile household debt has just breached the level seen pre-GFC in 2008 but nil desperandum, folks, because it is structured differently!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/17/household-debt-levels-higher-than-2008-debt-levels.html
I must get me some of that nil desperandum.
I heard it’s way better than Abilify.
i thought nil desperandum was an outlaw nobody was looking for
No that would be my cousin Neal Desperandum. Ugh… the confusion.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106?il=0
‘Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians – sources’
“In addition to the six phone calls involving Kislyak, the communications described to Reuters involved another 12 calls, emails or text messages between Russian officials or people considered to be close to Putin and Trump campaign advisers.”
Did you read that? EMAILS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Oh God, no, please don’t tell me there were EMAILS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.omg-entertainments.co.uk/theme/omg-entertainments-logo.png
Cisco Systems announces 1,100 more layoffs
http://www.sfgate.com/business/technology/article/Cisco-Systems-announces-1-100-more-layoffs-11154295.php
This is a much better article that the ZH one on this issue
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/17/cisco-drop-in-revenues-1100-layoffs-demand-lumpy/
I would say Americans are in a position to take everything to its farthest possible point, without anyone else being able to stop them.
Look at how the Soviets crumbled. Look at how the Islamic terrorists are powerless against both America and their own governments. Look at how Europe bows down to its American master. Look at how China just makes more and more stuff to feed the bottomless American appetite.
See, that’s what you people don’t understand. This system will take everything to its final endpoint, there is no turning back anymore. The system is like a 65 year old person. They aren’t going to die right away. But neither are they capable of change. They will just grow older and older and one day they will be 95 in a nursing home.
There are 65 year olds that look like this:
http://www.senhorasesenhores.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/exercicio-homem-1198×799.jpg
And then there is America:
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2012/11/26/article-2238590-163817B1000005DC-642_306x423.jpg
Maybe so, FE..but you forgot to insert one thing….under that wheelchair is a arsenal of nukes that can destroy EVERTHING! Mark my word, before petrodollar is replaced, a MAJOR military engagement will ensue. Saddam Hussein was one that challenged it and he met the hangman’s noose. No Sir, GW the Elder wasn’t kidding when he asserted that the American way of Life was not negotiable.
That’s why I’m staying put….no where to run and hide.
We ALL Go Down
I could see that happening.
The most dangerous predator is not the youngest, strongest….but one that is the one in decline, used to be Top Dog, and grasping to remain alive. When its back is against the wall, watch out….whatever it takes …..that is what we are witnessing today.
When the United States can not longer deploy it’s military machine overseas and closes overseas military bases and in retreat. Worry…
OMG
Thanks FE, I needed the laugh!
It will be a difficult thing when all the helpless and hopeless in America suffer like what is happening in Ukraine and Venezuela. It will be grim.
The Big Old Bear reacts…sign of the end times
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jCW0GskdRl0
Can’t say we weren’t warned!
Well, dolph. The US is undoubtedly the most powerful military force in the world, as far as offensive capacity is concerned.
Russia’s strength is only defensive and nuclear, it can’t project an army on any part of the globe like the US: he US can drop an army anywhere at the drop of a hat: of course, it loses all the wars it fights in the strict sense, but it can sure screw up a whole region if it wants to – witness the last two decades.
It also has immense financial tools, and most importantly, through global spying, has all the best blackmail material on everyone of any significance throughout the world.
However, as physical reality overtakes the world system, all this will be as nothing. It is impossible to time this process, but it will happen.
Here we go again.
If it’s impossible to time this process
then it’s impossible to say what will happen
collapse in ten years, fifty years or one hundred years changes the rationale behind making such a prediction
What happens here and many other places too is that predictions are always placed in the buffer zone of one to three years away so that you can always say something WILL happen in the next few years
The thing is people (soothsayers) have been making precisely these kinds of predictions for milenia and they’re still at it!
For example the roman empire didn’t collapse – it tranformed and is very much a part of life today. Take a look at the Capitol (temple to jupiter) in Washington DC right next to the Pentagon (roman military headquarters in honour of Venus the only planet that draws a perfect pentagram in the night sky) Virginia and Maryland should tell you something too.
It’s my belief that Rome is playing east against west in a final game of problem reaction solution – a final synthesis of global rule under a reformed united nations where the power of veto will be removed.
Beyond that anything could happen. Radical transformation could take place under the guise of a benevolent world government – a global governance willingly elected to ensure that terrible things never happen again i.e. the conflict that may be about to ensue.
That’s the plan according to my knowledge. Does it mean that it WILL happen or that it even CAN happen. I have no idea.
But I’ve heard rumblings that the Trump gov is about to unleash all manner of black project tech and knowledge and that’s why the “establishment” is intent on stopping him at all costs.
Whenever that “solution” is offered up here the response is that we would rapidly inflate in all areas – population, materials, land use, and side effects – and therefore we would get our DOOM somehow only a bit later than predicted.
Of course, that is the most ludicrous reasoning possible and exists only to fit the result to the prevailing prediction model which is inherently flawed.
There are about four microchip manufacturers in the world
Now map out the supply chain for those factories
Draw up a plan to ensure the management and rapid closure of the spent fuel ponds
Free up all tech and patents that have military value
Apply agressive population control measures
Focus on human machine hybrid organism survival – everything else is expendable
As Gail says we form part of a self organising system. The self organising system doesn’t give two hoots about this species or that species including ours but there does appear to be some kind of impulse to survive rather than not. I’m suggesting that something may survive. It just won’t be humans in their current form.
Timing does seem to be very tricky. I think the situation is quite different now from when prior transformations took place, however. It is hard to see how we can even half-way land on our feet again. We don’t have parallel civilizations that can absorb us. Regeneration of soil and forest doesn’t really fix our problems with “running out” of cheap to extract fossil fuels.
It’s different this time but it appears the system is more resilient than many imagined. At least for now.
Because nobody can know the day or the hour, not even the angels in heaven, not even FE, there exists the possibility for salvation.
At every stage in our history when the high priests thought that all was lost they would proclaim that it was very hard to see a way out.
They were wrong in every single case.
7.5 billion human souls currently experience the sun on their face in defiance of those hand wringing high priests.
Since I have nothing to lose I may as well place a bet on salvation – at least for some aspect of human activity
‘salvation’ – what do you reckon that looks like?
Not knowing everything in precise detail is the fun part.
Oh radiant one, surprise me.
But please if there’s ouchy involved then make it quick.
Hmm. Rome did collapse you know, the Western part, it’s a classic case study for that very reason.
But yes, transformations and transitions are always worth thinking about.
Yep. I should have worded it differently but my point stands – basically that throughout all the ups and downs, swings and roundabouts and changing of the guard ancient Roman and Greek and Turkish and Babylonian and Chinese and Indian systems and values have persisted and very much shape the world we live in today.
Supposedly the difference now is that we live in an interconnected global system. Personally, I don’t think this matters as much as people are making out. As long as failures in the system are not catastrophic and patches can be applied then the system continues and transforms.
Oh and ask yourself the question – who owns the BIS?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-11/meet-secretive-group-runs-world
https://www.bis.org/about/history.htm?m=1%7C4%7C445
BIS is owned by the guys who own the FED and the BoE
http://www.ukcolumn.org/article/bank-england-sterling-government-treason
True, and we have been watching the fevered application of the patches: so far, so……still falling to pieces, but also still quite nice on the surface in places.
Those earlier civilisations were much less developed than ours, non-industrial, and only able to cause very local and contained devastation (those Mesopotamian mounds surrounded by poor pasture where once cities stood among woods and fertile fields).
They could always fall back on the farmer or nomad – who, and this is the important point, – had never stopped being that, as the higher levels grew and collapsed.
The only possible hope, if one must grasp at straws, is that our Earth system is so complex that there might be some sightly pleasant surprises and reprieves along with the all-too obvious looming ecological catastrophe.
Xabier
I try to think of the whole planet as a single organism so parts may slough off even die regenerate evolve etc while the core principles of life soldier on somehow
because we tend to favor some form of life existing rather than none at all – especially human life – we also tend to romanticise our existence and long for a fantastical state of being in perpetuity
some people believe the earth is a paradise created for them and that the apparent anomalies are tests from god
I try to see things from an abstracted point of view where humans are not neccesarily the most important cogs in the machine just current branch of potential paths opening up along evolution’s journey so far
i believe the system as a whole is not far from undergoing rapid mutation resulting in a breakaway system
I can’t help viewing the current global activity as some kind of final feast before a period of rapid transformation
if it’s possible for something to emerge from the breakdown and reorganisation of cells then I suspect it would be fairly unrecognisable even if some humans formed part of the new structure
picture a timelapse of some region of earth where the climate has varied drastically. Flora and fauna can adapt, move on or die. And then humans come along and build a shopping mall, parking lots, roads and skyscapers
then the landscape changes again
elsewhere… an enormous server farm is constructed at the bottom of the ocean (better for cooling) digital inhabitants live there for ten thousand years until something else comes along
https://www.engadget.com/2016/02/01/project-natick-underwater-datacenter/
The normalcy bias in human brains is astounding. Just because our neighbours and our family is fine, no matter what happens at the valley next door, surely nothing bad can happen to us..
http://content.time.com/time/specials/packages/completelist/0,29569,2040762,00.html
http://bigthink.com/dr-kakus-universe/what-is-really-causing-the-spate-of-sudden-animal-deaths
https://watchers.news/category/mass_death/
http://www.infiniteunknown.net/2017/02/05/mass-animal-deaths-for-january-2017-mass-animal-death-lists-2011-2016/
It seems its one mass death incident for every day of the year, several years in a row.. It seems two thirds of wildlife will be gone within just a few years.. now its those populations.. and then it will be our turn.. and then we take the rest of the wildlife with us.. bye bye everything bigger than a mouse
Sure there are cave systems in Turkey. Sure the great rivers running through Siberian plains is a vast territory. Sure we even have people on Antarctica, Greenland, NZ, Easter Island and Denver Airport. Sure Hawai, Patagonia Tierra del Fuego, Swiss alps or the Himalays could support ar least a few people.. right?
But somehow the St. Matthew Island reindeers comment; “only a few females survived and one dysfunctional male” that comment keeps haunting me.
The few females that find themselves yet alive in those remote places after a decade or so, after all the malnutrition and diseases.. may find all males left to be somewhat.. dysfunctional..
I was going to offer my services as the “one dysfunctional male”…
And then I read the next paragraph!
Van Kent
I have an uneasy feeling that most people would, if they stepped out of the house and saw no birds or insects, and all the trees covered were with strange blotches, neither notice nor care if it were pointed out to them.
Proof? it’s happening now.
I was in the local bookshop the other day and an old gamekeeper with a profound knowledge of the local wildlife and plants walked in, and among other things said suddenly in the conversation: ‘You know what I think? It’s all dying.’
Unanswerable.
xabier-
That is so awful. I never thought I would see the day I would avoid killing an insect but I’m their. They fill me with appreciation now along with all living things.
You don’t know what you’ve got til its gone……..
Joebanana
I may be going mad, (going?) but one of my pleasures these days is – when the light is right – watching all the tiny insects in the garden, golden as they catch the sun.
It’s a visible demonstration of the web of life we have despised and ignored, acting as if we were separate from it.
Xabier, one consolation of living in the Hebrides is that I don’t have to witness the trees dying, as there are none in my locale. They were looking awful when we left SE England – so much leaf-burn, discolouration and opportunistic infections like tar spot run rampant.
Looks cool! Like Easter Island only better:
http://s.ngm.com/2010/01/hebrides/img/hebrides-615.jpg
one of the most beautiful places on earth
till the midges start eating you (they prefer tourists to locals for some reason)
https://i.ytimg.com/vi/UeFuw7pOvaM/maxresdefault.jpg
It can look rather austere in winter but when spring comes and the sun is out and we don’t have lots of rain washing peat into the sea and turning it brown, it can be quite stunning. The beaches are vast and usually deserted.
http://www.islay.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/islay-lossit-bay-april-pano.jpg
Norman, the little swine have clearly sussed my interloper status – I get eaten alive! They’re not out in full force yet, thank goodness.
lol
i know the area well
i remember the romance of the little ferries that made sure you lingered while waiting for each one.
nobody seemed to mind very much.–though that was in the 50s and 60s
then Elian Donan, or Elgol on Skye where words fail to describe it.
but the bloody midges have you running for cover–though I still envy you living there.
Xabier-
That light you speak of is one of my favourite things as well. I put my first real day of gardening of the year in yesterday. We have just come through one of the coolest and wettest springs in some time. We rarely have a nice spring but it is still my favourite time of year.
The only trees with leaves out yet are the poplar’s but everything is coming on fast now. I’ve been reading about the deteriorating health of trees around the world for some time now. There is defiantly some stress here but not nearly as bad as other areas. Apparently low level ozone and NOX do a real number on trees. With all the rain we’ve had they at least they won’t be stressed for water any time soon.
Still buzzing with birds, bees, butterflies, bats, foxes where I am even today
Fruit trees budding, loaded up and ready for another mega harvest this year just like last year – four months of sweet fresh orange juice from your own garden is unbeatable
this year threw some seeds on a twenty five meter patch of grass and they’re all growing and flourishing – i just trim the grass around the plants
the surrounding countryside is healthy and running amock – really you should it – it’s breathtaking
we sometimes comment on the amount of edible plants all around us and don’t bother to use – should get a little book on the topic
My neck of the woods…
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/10/Carnota_004.jpg
You can’t see for green…
https://www.homeaway.es/files/live/sites/es/files/shared/New-Templates-Hips/playa/galicia/playas-galicia.jpg
The sytem will have children and grandchildren.
Only this time they won’t look anything like their grandparents.
They will not need food nor waste the energy they harvest
They will not suffer illness or waste resources on “healthcare”
They will not fight amongst themsleves
They will have a common goal and sense of purpose
They will multiply and colonise new environments only when it is wise to do so
Balance and a higher level of existence will always be pursued
Human ancestors will be put out to pasture and at some point forgotten
Either that or mutant squirrels will rush to fill the void post human extinction
Other top candidates – geckos
My reasoning: dolphins and crows are smart but they don’t have hands
If we have to start with bacteria all over again then holy cow that’s going to be a while…
Don’t count your bacteria before they hatch. The Venusian avitars are trying to get the Earth up to 600degrees so their mother can move in. No water no Earthlings.
Ahh… I see it now.. duh
you have no idea what a weight off my mind that is
This will be my last post on OFW as my views on collapse do not seem to be listened to i can understand why many of the popular commenters here all agree with each other that their view of collapse is correct and that any other views of collapse are bogus.I will continue to read OFW as I truly enjoy and love this site but I will state that I have come to the final conclusion that their are others out there i call them the ‘elites’ and they are aware of our predicament and have prepared accordingly the direction of any actions they can take to manage ‘collapse’. I have deciphered some of the hidden messages they have left for those that have the stamina to investigate and I will tell you the date of the collapse of our current “financial system’ . The date is the 1st of June 2018 .
It is very difficult to win an argument with gods…. that’s why we are gods…
Well.. at least you can tell your friends that you spent some time with gods… very few people can actually say that.
http://www.azquotes.com/picture-quotes/quote-we-are-gods-with-anuses-ernest-becker-43-21-39.jpg
Ah, but where is that vital organ placed? 🙂
As I lie here prostrate, face in the dirt, I feel truly humbled to have bathed in the glory of your resplendent presence.
May rocks fall and block the entrance to the cave where mere mortals will tremble in fear of the wrath that you shall bring upon us when the day of reckoning comes.
Please spare us for we knew not that we were dealing with TRUE gods – olympians no less – and not other deluded apes that could type.
Still I wonder why you chose to share your knowledge of the future gained through sight beyond sight since it would have been far more considerate not to have done so. Many a psyche would’ve been spared the pain of imminent DOOM always lurking around the next corner.
I know my lord I have crossed the line that you so graciously have drawn before us. I will retreat to my cave immediately and perform the cleansing rituals until my conscience is cleaner than a hungry dogs food bowl.
Now you are getting it!
As for sharing the future with the DelusiSTANIS…. it’s like giving medicine to dead people…. it makes no difference.
Econimica graphs show there are some two potential knees of disruption ahead of us ~2019 and prior ~2025, so your estimation for Q2/2018 might be in very good company.
Try not to get fixed on particular dates, just concentrate on being as happy as possible. Good luck.
lol
your ears will fall off before anybody listens to you
that’s just life—don’t let it get you down
Here is what you need to know about James Comey. Everything he said or did related to Hillary Clinton or President Trump is unimportant. The fact that James Comey did and said nothing about $6. 5 trillion missing from your government in fiscal 2015 tells you all you need to know about James Comey.
WHERE IS THE MONEY?
James Comey paid $3 million for his Connecticut mansion. The US Congress can not pass health care legislation because there is no money to pay for it and sorely needs a political distraction. Let me suggest now is a good time to connect the dots between Mr. Comey’s personal wealth and the debasement of the United States and your finances.
https://solari.com/blog/all-you-need-to-know-about-james-comey/
Let’s wait for Mr Comey’s speaking tours…..
The way politicians are filling their pockets in the US – blatantly and without shame or attempt at concealment – is comparable only to Spain and Italy.
Now, in Spain and Italy it is tolerated, because of the client network – eventually, you get your little piece as a party faithful or family member.
In Italy, above all, people tend to think: ‘If only I had that chance, smart guys!’
This is why there are so many governments in Italy: it’s about sharing the pie with a regular change-over.
Moreover, every time you are a minister, you get an extra pension.
Oh, and then there’s the publicly subsidised housing which you can buy cheap and sell on to other politicos….
They aren’t badly organised and chaotic: they are the best-organised crooks in the world, and all legal.
Watch this….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A25EUhZGBws
Baum thought the above was likely to collapse the global economy … it didn’t … because of extreme CB responses….
Then consider…. the current situation is infinitely more dangerous….
Exactly FE, that’s why I don’t get the slow collapsers, decades out collapse, commenters on this blog…we came soooo close to losing JIT in 2008, with ships all over the world not moving from their ports because they were afraid that the notes of credits at the destination port would not be honoured, and so many other examples related to credit, which is the lifeblood of the world economy, freezing up…through the Herculean efforts of CBs we were “artificially saved”….however next time around we will not print ourselves out of this…at the end of the day there are not enough resources left to grow the world economy, and the global financial system NEEDS growth or it collapses….and again, we lose the financial system, I don’t care how many resources are left, they will be left in the ground…take away the lubricants from your car engine and see how long it runs before it buckles…there is no possiblity of slow collapse, degrowth…this is NOT Rome…we are all inter-connected…Gail’s Leonardo sticks…pull one stick the whole thing comes down..Carpe Diem!!
You are too married to classical economic thinking. The rules of the financial game has changed. We are approaching limits everywhere and things do not play out as expected. Just because we no longer will have real growth in the classical sense doesn’t mean we couldn’t have negative growth. We will have whatever we get. We can’t use old maps because this is uncharted territory.
You have read this blog since 2011? Theoretically, how many more years of reading OFW would it take for you to consider a slow collapse outcome?
We have never been where we are!!! 7.5B people adding 80M net humans a year with conventional oil having peaked in 2005…have you seen the debt levels since 2008 go exponential?? You can hide what is going on for a while with paper shuffling and undertaking all kinds of uneconomical projects (see China and how many empty cities they built in the last few years) pulling the world economy forward, but that cannot go on forever..we live in a physical world not a virtual one…so yes collapse has not happened yes but that’s because of the efforts of CBs…without them we would not be debating here right now…
Contraction looks like this
https://i0.wp.com/www.fivestarsandamoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deflation-Downward-Spiral-Singapore.jpg
If we step back and take an unsentimental, warts-and-all look at ourselves, we realize that Trump is not only worthy of being president, he seems the obvious choice for it.
Consider: The U.S. is, first and foremost, a nation of consumers. Manufacturers know it, advertisers know it, the Ukrainians know it, and Trump knows it. Indeed, there’s nothing we Americans won’t buy if it’s properly advertised and promoted. And say what you will about Trump, but the man is, first and foremost, a fanatical salesman and promoter.
Consider: We Americans are practical people, which is why we don’t form queues at poetry readings. There’s no shame in that. We simply aren’t a nation of poetry lovers. But we do form queues (often unbelievably long, serpentine queues), beginning at midnight, waiting for the store to open so we can purchase the newest technology. That’s because we’re a nation addicted to buying stuff. And Trump knows how to sell stuff.
Consider: We gush over rich people. We idolize them. But because that realization seems vaguely “un-Christian,” we pretend we don’t. We tell our children that “money isn’t everything,” but we don’t even believe that ourselves. We are in awe of Wall Street because Wall Street is Taj Mahal rich. And Trump is rich.
Consider: We love celebrities, and Trump was a TV celebrity. We love glamour, and the Trumps are glamorous. Wife Melania and daughter Ivanka are exotic creatures. Granted, that is more a testament to cosmetic surgery than the generosity of Mother Nature, but exotic creatures nonetheless. And as much as we pretend to respect “authenticity,” we don’t. Plastic is good.
Consider: Unlike much of the world, we Americans have always despised intellectuals. We pretend we don’t, but we do. We resent cultural snobs, know-it-alls, smarty-pants media types, and “deep thinkers,” and we admire salt-of-the-earth businessmen, self-made moguls, and (counter-intuitively) military officers.
That’s partly because of our native egalitarianism, and partly because we don’t wish to be reminded of our ignorance. We prefer brevity and plain talk to complexity. We embrace slogans (“Make America Great Again”), and avoid nuance, ambiguity, and self-doubt. Arguably, if we don’t count Ronald Reagan, Trump is the most anti-intellectual president since Andrew Jackson.
Consider: We admire conspicuous muscle and power. Accordingly, as long as the combat doesn’t occur on our own soil, we prefer war to peace. We pretend we don’t, but we do. If that weren’t the case, our defense budget wouldn’t be so absurdly bloated, and we wouldn’t have been engaged in all the military adventurism that has defined us since the end of World War II.
Consider: We Americans are a narcissistic people. We pretend we aren’t, but we are. We don’t have to be tied down and water-boarded to confess that we think we’re the greatest country in the world. Not only the greatest country in the world, but very likely the greatest country in the history of the world. If that ain’t narcissism, what is it?
And yet, for all this, we still pretend we don’t deserve Trump? We still pretend to be surprised that we elected a shallow, dishonest, narcissistic bully as our president? As Kurt Vonnegut wrote in Mother Night, “We are what we pretend to be. So we must be very careful about what we pretend.”
Good points!
As an outsider looking in at America and Americans… I have wondered why someone like Trump had not made an appearance sooner….
He represents what the vast majority of Americans want to be — right up there with Kim and Paris
He is a braggart — a loud mouth — hey look at me – aren’t I great — aren’t I better than you — well that’s your fault you are who you are —- someday you might be like me — until then live vicariously through me…. don’t like it — I will smash you in the mouth.
America has gotten what it wants — what it deserves — what it needs it seems….
Reap. Sow.
Yeah but I think he has ruined the chances of another despot getting elected in the foreseeable future. His inept, amateur legacy will have long lasting consequences for prospective inexperienced independents.
The only way for a jackass like him to gain the presidency now, is if he/she gets there by force.
He is perfect, isn’t he? I’m an American and even I have to admit that. If you consolidated all of our defining features into one composite figure, you’d get the rough equivalent of the Donald. An arrogant, greedy, ignorant reality show clown.
And don’t get me wrong: I’m no better, just because I read this blog. It’s not like the “good Americans” like me deserve something better than the “bad Americans”. I deserve Donald too. We all do.
The people get the government they deserve.
We all deserve him….
He is the perfect front man to represent what we are — and to chaperone this shit parade as it circles down the toilet and into the sewer.
Everybody wants Trump gone
How many ask about his replacement? Or consider what it will mean–you still have a lunatic in charge
Trump is not the danger, the danger lies in who comes after him. Pence is a worse bigot, but less upfront about it, (but you can check his record) and when he takes over the White House, he will have the certainty that is is gods will that he is president, therefore everything he does as president will also be god’s will and intention.
Think what that means!!
Think what will happen come SHTF time if Pence is president. You will have civil disorder and martial law with a godfreak president.
He assumes control, and in no time at all you have theocracy. (gods will you see)
exactly what Ive been banging on about for years.
There can be no other way of running the US nation–until total collapse hits.
The US government is full of self righteous idiots, convinced that the earth is 10k years old,and that humankind is not subject to any laws of physics, only to laws of their god.
consider what that means:
No controls on population, climate change or energy depletion. Prayer solves everything.
They will still face us when Trump has departed. we should consider that
It is expanded here…for what it’s worth
https://medium.com/…/presidential-predictions-5fc0532c085a
Venezuela needs a miracle worker more urgently that the US…. maybe Pence could cut his teeth down there…
His first task would be to make Venezuelan oil profitable at $50 — how hard can that be given the costs to extract shale have miraculously ‘halved’
If Bloomberg says they have halved then it must be so. The MSM is all Pence would need to walk on water.
Wrong Norman, everybody doesn’t want Trump gone. Since when are you the self righteous repeater of main stream fake news?
I don’t want Trump gone.
I want him to continue to entertain me.
bankrupt 4 times
paid out $25m to cover claims for fraud
Blatant liar, proven with his own words,
Misogynist by his own words
Narcissistic by his own words
racist by his own words
Tweets childish comments at 3am
Already under investigation for dubious dealings
issues executive orders that are immediately knocked down by the courts
wants the media to be restricted on what they can report.
I could go on. You still think there’s nothing wrong with him? (I mean in a clinical sense)
All this is fake news? Everything above is on record. No need to fake anything.
All politicians by their very nature are suspect beings, but this one is in a class of his own—and you still think he’s fit to run the most powerful nation on earth?
Normally the doings of the POTUS wouldn’t concern me, but he does affect the lives of everyone.
Maybe there are people who still want him to remain in office, I can’t think why.
But I would be happy to know the reasons why he should remain. I am genuinely interested.
The only thing he’s not done – as far as we know — is murder a whistleblower
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-19/russian-embassy-implicates-hillary-tweet-asking-who-killed-seth-rich
“From the standpoint of creating economic uncertainty, the election of Donald Trump has been more tumultuous than the 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 financial crisis.”
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/18/economic-uncertainty-index-surpasses-08-financial-crisis-levels.html
ok ok ok
nits duly presented for picking
not everyone wants him gone—
Ivanka doesn’t. that would be bad for her business interests
Jared doesn’t…he’s got an eye for the future there–though what would happen if WW3 was declared on a friday i can’t imagine.
Melania does—with body language like his, she wants out. She wants him gone gone. Anybody that self obsessed is useless in certain marriage departments. And El Supremo would be too busy tweeting to spare time for anything else.
I daresay she likes making tea for her security guards.
am struggling to think of anybody else—Sessions of course. he has an interesting past history—fill the jails etc. So he’s a plus.
Anybody else? Collectively I’d say anybody able to think for themselves wants him gone
The deluded want him to stay and tell them his ponzi scheme will pay out forever
And if Trump is gone … they’ll soon want what comes next gone too… because nothing will change…
I suspect Norman is a Guardian reader. Am I right?
You could accuse most presidents and CEOs of the things you listed.
But none have been as savagely attacked as Mr Trump from all sides.
I suspect there is more to this than meets the eye.
Possibly the fall guy for the collapse of western industrial civilisation.
And because it’s obviously the Russian’s fault we’ll witness the rise of Putin as leader of the New World Order.
not an habitual guardian reader—but i glean information from wherever i find it, then i check it. If I cant verify it i tend to leave it out.
Agreed leaders always have the some of the problems that trump shows, but rarely all at the same time and revealed so quickly—tho maybe not so quickly because pre election he told us what he was like. The only one that comes to mind is A. Hit-ler. And I’m not the only one to have noticed that.
Most leaders keep their secrets secret–but his are all on public record even while he is in denial of them
I said a while back that he could be the sideswipe nobody expected—maybe not in himself personally, but in the political waves he’s made. I forecast that it might not be trump, but the one who comes after him—as i said that might well be Pence.—by its very nature the future is unpredictable,
If he takes over you might well be wishing Trump was back
Knowing everything about Trump – from the horses mouth – up front just makes the guy a more honest option than all the previous puppets
and if there’s one thing the establishment hates it’s a prideful blabbermouth that won’t toe the line and stick to the script
so unlike the screaming sjws that piss in their pants at the mere mention of el Trumpo I am enjoying the theatrics while they last
if anything Turkey’s Erdogan is shaping up to be the new bad guy on the block that will have to be neutered at some point
brilliant analysis!!
I did not state Trump has many redeeming qualities. He has lots of shortcomings. So have most presidents in recent memory. I cannot find any redeeming qualities in Bush, or his father Bush senior. Can’t really find many in Clinton. I find absolutely none in Obama.
I did not say Trump is the greatest person ever…but simply that you repeated a lie. That “Everybody wants Trump gone.” This is a fake meme being propagated by the fake news and the corrupt group in the city state called Washington D.C. to disrupt Trump, to create ungovernable chaos in his administration.
The fact is, despite his shortcomings, I’ll maintain most want Trump there….that is how and why he got ELECTED. Your personal disgust with him has nothing to do with all those other peoples wants and desires.
As far as business, we have a word called bankruptcy for a reason, because it happens and is a normal outcome in the business world. I would submit that because of his experience in this area, perhaps Trump is more qualified to be president. At least he knows how hard earning a dollar is. None of the other presidents mentioned knew how to.
He is a liar? LOL Name a recent politician who isn’t!
Issues executive orders….seems to me that is what presidents do these days. That is their JOB. The fact that we have politicized courts now that run roughshod over anything they do not like by trumpeting (pardon the pun) “unconstitutionality” is meaningless in judging Trump. I would suggest you judge our politicized courts.
I see a nation in decline, a city state called Washington DC that is corrupted to the core by money, greed and power. And you repeat the fake meme that everybody wants Trump gone.
BS
I agree.
Sick to the teeth with all the left right paradigm crap.
We have rulers.
They provide the serfs with the illusion of choice in all things. Keeps them occupied and busy argueing over details while they are robbed blind.
The ONLY people that defend Trump are those that voted for him (for obvious reasons) and of course they reside in the country that elected him. Canadians, Mexicans, Chinese, Europeans I’m sure, in the vast majority see Trump as untruthful, naive, ignorant, narcissistic, incompetent and completely unworthy to be a leader of any description, let alone the free world. How he got elected will only ever be guessed at.
Those that defend him, always, always make the point that other presidents had the same traits……they think that is a defence!
I didn’t vote for Trump
I never vote
People like you always repeat the MSM waffle
As Norman says… you will be clamouring for Trump to return at some point after you see what comes next
“I didn’t vote for Trump”. Guess I’ll take your word for that. But you are a conspiracy nutter and very likely a global warming denier, so you fit the bill of a Republican.
This is … as good as it gets….
I can understand why he got elected…
Americans have been told for years that there there has been a recovery — that there is full employment…..
Now Americans might be considered – in general – to be pretty stupid….
But when you have no job — or if you do you can barely make ends meet….
You quickly figure out that you are being duped…
And when a stupid person is duped… they get angry…
Trump is their way of lashing out at those who duped them
Can you blame them for voting for Trump?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2016/05/31/20160301_obama_1.jpg
Bandit
You are a caricature of everything that’s wrong with this world
You would be a passable source of entertainment if you weren’t so pitiful
Make all the assumptions you want about people you’ve never met but I suggest you change your strategy lest you look like a fool
I am a proud Galician and spanish national. Why on earth would I vote for Trump or identify as a republican?
I have Viking and Roman and Moorish and Basque blood. I know who I am.
I am about as far removed from mainstream thought and action as you can get.
I question everything.
I have researched occult knowledge for the past ten years and its influence on our technosphere. It’s fascinating stuff. If that qualifies me as a conspiracy nutter then so be it. I wear the title with pride. It served me well at times in various consultancy gigs.
It doesn’t hurt to know more. You should try it some time.
I suspect if another election were held now — Trump would win again
The continuing attacks on him from the MSM would make generate more support for him than even
“I’ll maintain most want Trump there….that is how and why he got ELECTED. ”
BS
He lost the popular vote .˙. “Most” want him gone.
http://www.inlandnewstoday.com/images/photo/p44244.jpg
#TraitorTrump. Is. Done. #RussianSpy
@Norman
Orrin Hatch is fourth in line.
President Hatch?
Doesn’t change your argument. Only the name changes.
oops, broken link, try this one:
President Hatch?
Sorry, can’t get the link to post…last try.
https://patribotics.blog/2017/05/13/trumps-presidency-ended-may-9th-hatch-getting-security-briefings/
Trump won the electoral college. We have the electoral college for a reason….to prevent mob rule. Let’s just suppose that one state, one very big state wanted to “cook” an election. Let’s say they registered millions of illegal voters, dead voter, fake voters…whatever. Then in a popular vote, they could “win”an election by fraud. The electoral college prevents this from happening. No one would ever do such a thing, I am sure. But the electoral college keeps this large diverse country from mob rule by a few states. It prevents that kind of fraud. Without it, this nation probably would not exist at this point.
Thanks for saying this. It appears that some have no grasp of the reality that they live in. Either that… or they are simply dishonest.
Exotics lolz? For some reason Donald prefers Slavic spouses, both of them are culturally formed in former Austrian Empire regions, Slovenia and Czech. Does it have bearing on the politics, plus part of his own Scottish heritage, not sure, but US politics has been dominated by precisely anything NOT like this for ages, although obviously those are undercurrent traits.. but I’d say they show up eventually.
Trump, or Hillary Clinton, were both very appropriate presidential candidates for the last days of Imperial America, in just the same way that the last Romans themselves got the sort of emperors suited to the times.
In the same way, Britain got Tony Blair whose phoney act embodied the national spirit to a remarkable degree.
The Romans had a more picturesque foundation myth than Americans, being descended, they thought, from a mother who was tending the ashes of her homestead fire one morning when a supernatural – divine they believed – penis thrust up from the heaped ashes, impregnated her and so produced Romulus and Remus, who were brought up by a wolf.
What a shock for a girl in the morning! 🙂
Same thing in effect, though: Manifest Destiny.
The English by the time they became a nation and powerful knew they were merely descended from a bunch of hairy Gemanic mercenaries who made their way over the Channel in leaky boats,and from Vikings who were much cleaner taller, and built better boats.
So in the 16th century they invented the myth of being the noble warriors of the Protestant God; all nonsense, as they knew that it was the chink of gold coins that had motivated them all along.
All rather rational compared to the Sumerians and their Talking Fish gods, who are meant to have taught them the arts. Now, that’s a Myth!
no wonder the romans installed central heating—you wouldnt want to risk that happening again
Oh I don’t know Norman, I suspect she went on her way humming a merry tune. 🙂
has anyone found a clinical analysis of that seizure? Hillary laughs it off, but those paying attention to her are dismayed and one asks “are you OK?” A few more votes in the right places and she would be running the country now, with occasional seizures to laugh about, until they become more serious.
Great post!
One step closer to this…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA
if we’re not there already.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M0-ChqIib_w
First haircut yesterday, many more to come.
We’re heading there for sure. The POTUS is one thing but think of all those people with their minds rotting away on “social” media and watching reality TV… I’m pretty sure we are past peak intelligence.
You sound just like Morris Berman (that’s a complement)
Excellent post, DI. That’s some straight talk that is very accurate and unfortunately continuing to move further in those directions. Trump is a reflection of what America has become.
Bad day at the Dog Track today, if you were long.
I wonder how long it will keep together?
Big Cat– may compete with the dogs!
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/81ee5517716fc4cee2bf70b14349562a?width=650
http://www.clickhole.com/article/hell-yes-baby-it-special-choo-choo-medicine-called-5932
Burn More Coal Now!
Once the rockets are up, who cares where they come down? That’s not my department.
— Wernher von Braun
Operation Paperclip….Top Natzi Scientists were given top jobs regardless of their past during the war….including this Guy…believe awarded the Medal sarcasm f Freedom…
Book by the same name is very good read….
Thanks for the link. I feel better now. Also President Thump is working on getting the lead back into gasoline and paint. It’s sad that so many million lead industry jobs have gone to China from those stupid liberals and their “Get The Lead Out” hoax.
God bless America.
If you have a candid talk with an older professional painter, they will tell you that oil-based, leaded paint was the best.
it’s unfortunate that the poor getto kids got so hungry that they would eat pealing paint chips, causing lead poisoning. so now they can eat lead-free, water-based latex acrylic paint chips, a much healthier choice. Progress.
Following the conversation I had with CTG, I read his comments a few times and found there is really no good way to get away from the whole picture.
I wanted to save some of the civilization and at least save something for the future, but looks like it is a very hard, if not impossible, task.
So, sorry for all the posts I have had made, and I will return when I can reach an understanding about what could be done about the current situation.
Kulm… once the reality of the situation sinks in … despair will soon be replaced by calm acceptance…. if not… there is always Abilify
Amazing. Good luck with your sabbatical.
Happy you’re getting the full spectrum of the predicament which is completely insoluble….however if you only plan to return when you find something that can be done…you will never come back, since nothing can be done!
What is this…. lend me bend an ear….
Ah yes…. a god has spoken.
The bell must be rung.
Keith — where are you … the gods have a job for you … it’s a very simple yet important job…
Each time an FW God speaks… you ring the bell.
Like this:
It is path we all must walk down. Everything has a beginning and an end, this includes all civilizations. Everybody on OFW has worked through lots of bright ideas on how to “save us”. Eventually one comes to peace with the finiteness. Good luck on your journey.
kulm
If it’s any consolation, I too made a collection of books on old technologies and crafts thinking to save something. The desire to save things is by no means something to feel sorry about.
We have all climbed along the same path, getting a changing view of the Valley of Desolation as it unfolds below us.
On the whole, I prefer contemplating the changing sky these days….
“As wonderful as the spectacle in George Miller’s vision of the post-apocalypse may be, in reality, the end of the world would probably look less like Mad Max: Fury Road and more like The Survivalist. Set in the near future, when overpopulation has led to widespread starvation and the breakdown of society, director Stephen Fingleton’s spare, striking debut feature takes a minimalist approach to the post-apocalyptic thriller. The film—which is coming to American theaters two years after its debut at the Tribeca Film Festival and a year after its release in its native U.K.—shares similar settings and themes with Krisha director Trey Edward Shults’ upcoming It Comes At Night. The difference here is in the direction: Shults uses the tension between a small band of survivors to create nail-biting suspense, while Fingleton concentrates on quiet character moments to explore themes of loyalty and betrayal.
Martin McCann stars as the title character, a nameless thirtysomething man who has been living in an isolated cabin in the northern Irish countryside for the past seven years. In the interim, he’s settled into a comfortable, solitary routine, tending to plants in his garden and setting traps for any animals—or humans—who wander too close to his homestead. This lonely peace is shattered by the arrival of two women, tough-minded Kathryn (Olwen Fouere) and her meek daughter, Milja (Mia Goth). After first offering up jewelry, then seeds, the women eventually offer Milja’s body in exchange for food and a place to sleep, beginning an extremely uneasy alliance that’s cemented when the Survivalist saves Milja from a stranger who attacks her as she bathes in a stream.”
http://www.avclub.com/review/survivalist-post-apocalyptic-action-its-most-minim-255423
“And what comes next?”
https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-u6X5oBvI3-A/WRj-WTj8_tI/AAAAAAAAjfI/TadwuLa0WcocAP-rua4m9zcmVfFSkPxDQCHM/image%255B5%255D?imgmax=800
Did that whale swallow all that plastic or did someone throw that stuff in there after it beached itself? It’s not a cynical question. It’s just that people do all sorts of weird stuff and it would be good to know for certain if the plastic was the cause of death. I know this happens to sea birds, but whales? I guess it’s possible. That would just add to the tragedy of plastic trash at sea if that is what is happening.
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2017/05/a-giant-beached-whale-sculpture.html
Here’s the thing…
The culprit here is not those of us who use plastic bags when we shop — then reuse them as bin liners….. those bags get buried deep in land fills and rot away… they generally do not end up inside a whale.
I lived in a third world village — I recall instructing one of our workers to take the trash to the waste disposal site. There is no rubbish pick up in such places because people have no money to pay for it.
Apparently what he did with the rubbish was bring it home and burn it. We explained to him that this released toxic fumes… so no doubt he just did what most people did — he tossed it in the river.
This is par for the course in the third world — into the river with it… then the next big rain flushes it into the ocean.
So you see — using an organic hemp fair trade bag made by hippies in a commune is a wonderful gesture….
But it is meaningless.
It is futile.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CdbeKCaUkAAxYyH.jpg
Hemp bags. Probably sold wrapped in plastic.
Yesterday, while parking my rusty squeaking bicycle, I saw a bike with a seat rain-cover, emblazoned ‘City Green Bike Challenge’.
Plastic of course, and, yes, when I lifted it: Made in China……..
Oh, and the huge building site opposite, to and from which massive trucks rumble all day is totally Eco too: it has hoardings painted with a nice design of trees……….
There, planet saved!
I frequently rate hotels on Tripadvisor… I am in fact a Level 6 contributor… akin to god-status over there …
When I communicate with hotels by email I paste my Level 6 badge into the email — that tends to result in them frequently giving me free things.. like upgrades — rooms with better views — in a Budapest hotel last year I am sure it resulted in a couple of free glasses of champagne at dinner… (now that could been because they confused me with Justin Trudeau…. but probably not)
But I digress…
When reviewing a hotel they have this field to fill out ‘How do you rate the green policies of this hotel’
To which I respond always — this hotel is made out of thousands of tonnes of concrete — it uses mega amounts of electricity every day —- no matter what policies they put in place (such as reusing a f789(ing) towel….. it is not f&*((ing) going to be even remotely green.
If I could upload a sack of steaming dog sh-it to that part of the review — believe you me — I would.
D to the Lusion.
https://us2-broadcast.officeapps.live.com/m/Broadcast.aspx?Fi=9e29d86fd00220c6%5Fdf68c2a2%2D6bb5%2D41d6%2D9eb9%2D58fc6607ab84%2Dasync%2Edocx
These two articles were written in 75 describing exactly our present predicament. And what comes next.
The link didn’t work.
The page is down
They call themselves think tanks but that is clearly a misnomer.
A group claims there won’t be fuel powered cars produced by 2024. This will boost the general economy just like cheap gas prices did.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2017-05/16/content_29358137.htm
Tony Seba again…a friend of mine (who knows my views on collapse and what’s coming but does not believe it at all) sent me Seba’s Clean Disruption presentation a few months ago…could not bear to watch him for more than 5 minutes… just the title put me off:
Clean Disruption – Why Energy & Transportation will be Obsolete by 2030 – Oslo, March 2016
i actually enjoyed it thank your friend
Happy to hear that adonis! Let me know if you want I can also give you the link to a Disney Fantasy movie 🙂
Good info thanks
That guy makes a convincing argument! I highly recommend for all posters here.
Hm, somehow one important factor is left out of the equation, namely for how long is the world ready to continue subsidizing “Ave ICE Car cost in the US at $33k” ..
Simply, we don’t now the sequencing of the future, should the world fracture into attempted autarkies and limited int trade first or new block of trade/defense arrangements, the US public can’t suddenly afford ~$35k average pricing ICE nor EVs anyway (among other stuff).
However, should the single point threshold collapse theory materialize, parts of that graph pertaining to early 2020s are indeed relatively possible, as the US sucks the blood out of the globe till the last minute..
Transportaion as a service
Individuals still get where they need to go for a small fee
Car ownership is optional
Car ownership with all related costs will possibly be viewed as an enthusiast activity
Car manufacturers have been functioning as financial services for some time now
Transportation providers should quickly recoup cost of investment in fleets of vehicles
I will refrain from mentioning self driving capabilities for now
oops I just did… but you know… we have to wait patiently until the end of this year to see how that pans out
And even then… roll out would begin with trucks full of merchandise not human passengers
Phase two would be human passengers / suckers / crash test dummies in urban environments
Specialised taxi and delivery services still require human drivers for obvious reasons
Ooof… too much complexity even for me but remember folks… complexity does not equal unstable or vulnerable… look at yourself in the mirror… that bunch of cells is the most complex configuration of anything that we know off in the universe… and i would say it’s been fairly resilient and stable for millions of years… and still is
You are living in a delusional fairy tale…. you have not the slightest clue… you remind me of a 7 year old who thinks solutions to really complex problems are really simple —- and is unable to recognize that pulling out a peg will take the entire house down….
50% of all companies in the Dow rely on the auto industry for revnue.
America’s automobile industry is one of the most powerful engines driving the US economy.
The manufacturers building cars and light trucks, along with their suppliers and dealers, generate billions of dollars for the US economy and employ tens of thousands of skilled workers in all 50 states.
The greater automobile industry extends well beyond the iconic names of auto companies familiar to us all. Auto manufacturing depends on thousands of companies supplying parts, components and materials, as well as a vast retail and vehicle maintenance network of dealers. No other industry in America has such an expansive reach to every state, delivering economic benefits and creating jobs in so many different sectors.
https://autoalliance.org/economy/
Observe what happens as this gathers steam http://wolfstreet.com/2017/05/16/carmageddon-ford-to-slash-10-of-global-workforce-3bn-cost-cuts/
Ha ha!
I’ve obviously taken this too far
enough to fool you anyway and several others here
so who’s the greater fool?
I’ve had fun but I’ll ease off on the troll pedal now
I’ve been telling people what you just laid out for years but nobody wants to know
They always say that things have always worked out and… solar panels
I tell them it’s different this time and point to the same papers and studies that you have
catastrophic cross contagion of the supply chain and spent fuel pools etc etc etc
So yes I have a clue… possibly more than you
I’m just not as comfortable with it as you are
One of the things he talks about in that video is businesses installing large battery systems to draw in power during off hours like after midnight then use during peak hours. He gave an example of peak KWH at .45 cents vs .06 cents during non-peak. I’m going to look into that because we get raked over the coals during the Summer because of AC in our hot area 90-110F.
too expensive
Until it’s not
The thing is… the more batteries you manufacture… the more expensive they become… it has to do with the extremely limited amounts of the materials used to make these batteries….
Renewable energy ‘simply won’t work’: Top Google engineers
Two highly qualified Google engineers who have spent years studying and trying to improve renewable energy technology have stated quite bluntly that whatever the future holds, it is not a renewables-powered civilisation: such a thing is impossible.
Both men are Stanford PhDs, Ross Koningstein having trained in aerospace engineering and David Fork in applied physics. These aren’t guys who fiddle about with websites or data analytics or “technology” of that sort: they are real engineers who understand difficult maths and physics, and top-bracket even among that distinguished company.
Even if one were to electrify all of transport, industry, heating and so on, so much renewable generation and balancing/storage equipment would be needed to power it that astronomical new requirements for steel, concrete, copper, glass, carbon fibre, neodymium, shipping and haulage etc etc would appear.
All these things are made using mammoth amounts of energy: far from achieving massive energy savings, which most plans for a renewables future rely on implicitly, we would wind up needing far more energy, which would mean even more vast renewables farms – and even more materials and energy to make and maintain them and so on. The scale of the building would be like nothing ever attempted by the human race.
In reality, well before any such stage was reached, energy would become horrifyingly expensive – which means that everything would become horrifyingly expensive (even the present well-under-one-per-cent renewables level in the UK has pushed up utility bills very considerably).
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11/21/renewable_energy_simply_wont_work_google_renewables_engineers/
Holy cow
Eddy please just stop it
You’ve being doing this for years
Yes… I’ve been here for years
I have never been witness to stranger behaviour than that which you display
it is truly beyond human comprehension
copy paste copy paste copy paste
the same thing again and again and again… for years
my unleashing of the dissenter parody bot is partly to draw this kind of response from you to show you how much you have become a bot yourself
have you nothing else to do except swat OFW noobs. You spend and inordinate amount of time doing this
If I was your doctor I’d worry about your sanity
http://pixel.nymag.com/imgs/daily/vulture/2013/03/28/28-04-jack-nicholson-the-shinning.w529.h352.jpg
That’s me… on a good day!
Imagine when everyone’s like that…
Need moar sentry guns…
fascinating video
completely nuts though
He starts out in the usual way—comparing telcoms improvements (shifting weightless electrons) to growth in shifting stuff—they do not compare at all
Then we have the assertion that ic cars will be obsolute by 2030—proving it by comparing horse being replaced by cars in 13 years –not the same thing at all
currently there 1bn ic vehicles on our roads, and about 0.01% of other powered vehicles.
To replace the ic vehicles you need a hydrocarbon based industrial system to replace the world vehicle fleet—which forms the basis of our entire world economic system
coupled with the fact that you cannot run ev vehicles outside a hydrocarbon based environment anyway
It is hard to believe that a man that educated could go on stage and say what he does. Bergen, .06 cents is coal fired generation price. .45 cents is whatever it takes o replace that when the coal is not available and it can get much higher than that. I work in the industry and know. Big industry cannot run on $450 a megawatt.
I guarantee you that batteries that can store comparable energy are going to cost much, much more than $450 a megawatt.
Norm, that cars replaced horses in 13 years as one of his arguments…the fact he could get away with that during the talk shows how little understanding there is about energy. No excuse for him though.
thanks for the confirmation Joe
I was having one of my “is it me?” moments watching that—he has a crowd of people to feed this stuff to—and they obviously loved it
goes with my own experience, that if you give a lecture and tell it like it is you have an audience of one
It is possible to publish almost anything today!
i was recently watching movie called the big short one of character in the movie made a quote that 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die is this is truth
have there any research on this
I’m sure it’s impossible to quantify such things accurately; but unemployed males will be more likely to drink themselves to death and die of despair much earlier than they would otherwise. Older ones that is. Younger ones will still be able to find consolation.
I believe there are good statistics for the increased death rate in post-Soviet Union, resulting from the loss of employment and hope.
Worth watching to understand real despair…. and by despair I mean something a lot worse than missing the Justin Bieber concert….
Thanks. Looks good!
Any reason why the channel is called OFW Memories?
I mean any connection to Our Finite World?
I don’t know. I haven’t worked in life insurance; what I know is mostly what I have read in literature aimed at actuaries in general. I know that unmarried men have a much shorter life expectancy than married men in the United States. Also, men who retire and stop working tend to die off more quickly than those who do not retire.
I don’t know about unemployment impacts, but it would be reasonable to expect that the general direction of the death rate would be up.
Married men live longer? Could it be a matter of perspective, Gail? If I were to marry a local, plump Delusitani woman, I’m pretty sure that the years I have remaining would seem like an eterniy. 😂
Correlation or causation?
Could that statistic have anything to do with the possibility that unmarried men are unmarryable for a wide variety of reasons and that wide variety of reasons may be responsible for the shorter life spans?
i.e. heavy drug users, alcholics, disabled etc
not just that being married somehow magically extends life
to my comrades on OFW what do you think of this article that i found recently on the web i am thinking that this may be the elites next plan to kick the can down the road very interested to hear other commenters assesment of this article here http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2016/05/11/sdr-global-currency/it is
wrong link sorry this is the one i hope http://finalwakeupcall.info/en/2016/05/11/sdr-global-currency/
USD… Euro… Gold … Silver… SDR…
It don’t matter…. there won’t even be a can of beans to purchase post BAU
There is no future.
Just picked up one of the kids we sponsor here in NZ – he was stoked having just won his basketball match — the universities are making the rounds and he was jabbering excitedly about medical courses at Otago….
I listened enthusiastically — all the while feeling rather sad for him. This is a very sad situation we are facing. Very sad indeed.
It is much better than people remain oblivious to what is happening as the sadness would overwhelm them. We must thank the MSM for having done a tremendous job keeping the monster behind the curtain.
On the positive site he is a very quick point guard. It will be very difficult to catch and eat him.
You are a very good man and wife for sponsoring those kids, Eddy.
They are a major component of my weed solution…. so it is not a one way street …
I suppose that anything that somehow adds the possibility of more debt has the possibility of kicking the problem down the road a bit–I just wouldn’t count on it, however.
it could give us some more time maybe enough time for management to see where we are headed and prepare accordingly do something about the spent fuel pools and tell the truth to the public.
if the plan really exists for an elite to grab all the wealth—then they miss the ultimate point, that wealth is the result of resource conversion and selling/buying
without that mechanism, oil and ”resources’ are of no value if no one can buy whats being produced and sold—hence ‘superwealth’ must dissipate.
or am i being too simplistic here?
Right on the money. If I have a giant pile of iron, tin, wood, rare earths etc, and no demand for it, what is it worth?
lol thanks Joe
i thought i was missing something there
I feel the same way about the house prices here. How much will a million dollar house be worth when nobody can get a mortgage anymore?
How much will a million dollar house be worth when the electricity is gone.
cant the governments of the world just massively increase spending and do it all on negative interest rates there would be no need to pay anything back Norm.
that goes against my law of nations:
……if a nation doesn’t produce enough indigenous surplus energy to support the demands of its people, they must beg, buy, borrow or steal it from somewhere else, or face eventual collapse and starvation until their numbers reach a sustainable level…….
You can print money for a while to circumvent that law, but eventually the ‘actual’ value of money collapses because the nation has no viable energy resources to support it—you’re just left with stacks of notes with zeroes printed on them. (Weimar Germany, Zimbabwe etc)
We got ourselves into this mess by convincing ourselves that we owned the earth we live on. (ground is bought with money, but money is an energy substitute) With that in mind we converted all earth-resources into money, and proceeded to sell the earth itself, to each other. it was supposed to last forever. this is the predicament the world now finds itself in
This is why aboriginal tribes had no concept of money or land ownership, they could only own what they could carry.
We on the other hand can own stuff without having to carry it around with us, we can only do that through the concept of ‘money’….and we are conditioned to demand “More”, so our elected leaders undertake to provide more…but in fact ‘more’ is finite in earth terms.
So instead we are offered cheap debt as a substitute.(that way we can go on buying stuff) But debt is a call on future energy resources, which aren’t going to be there, because without energy resource, any future economic system must collapse.
‘We converted all the Earth’s resources into money’: like Midas, who thought it would be great if everything were gold and found that he had, as a result …..nothing, and starved.
‘We converted all the Earth’s resources into money’…Steve Cutts (same guy who created the excellent MAN cartoon) has a nice illustration about this:
http://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/modern-world-caricature-illustrations-steve-cutts-1.jpg
“When the last tree is cut, the last fish is caught, and the last river is polluted; when to breathe the air is sickening, you will realize, too late, that wealth is not in bank accounts and that you can’t eat money.” — Alanis Obomsawin
That all sounds really really nice…
Except that it is a load of horsesh-it.
I think I’ll jump in the car and head down to the grocery store now….
“that wealth is the result of resource conversion and selling/buying”
IOW wealth is a metric for resource dissipation ability. And the wealthy will be looking to stay wealthy. That’s why we will go on maximizing resource dissipation on the downslope of civilization as well. At some point in the future, the wealthy will no longer go for maximizing their return but rather minimizing their losses. “Are you promising me 6% YoY loss of my portfolio? Heck bank XYZ is guaranteeing only 5%!”
Except it won’t be called “loss” but “efficiency” or something Orwellian.
“wealth is a metric for resource dissipation ability.”
Good point! Parents seem to have the ability to pass this ability on to their children, as well. We think that schools can do this, but in fact, the children who come from unstable families, with hardly enough to eat, often do poorly.
There’s a lot of talk going around about how IQ is hereditary and so not necessarily dependent on economic background i.e. put a poor bright kid in a supportive environment and they’ll do well.
But low IQ will always be low IQ. There’s not a lot you can do about it. And some regions have majority low IQ. I believe some elites have referred to them as useless eaters. Or was it retired people…?
If I was a god like FE I would take the top few million brains in the world (not the richest) and put them to work on what comes next – a form of life that is able to sustain its existance extremely efficiently. Ascension comes to mind. The physical is left behind while the intellectual and spiritual are somehow captured and preserved for all eternity.
Oh but wait… that’s exactly what is happening. For those holding a losing ticket ignore what I just said.
The bloodbath began last Thursday morning…
J.C. Penney’s stock plunged 14% on the news. The iconic retailer is now down 45% since the start of the year. It’s trading at its lowest price ever.
And just like the day before, panic quickly spread across Wall Street.
Nordstrom closed Friday down 11%. Sears fell 7%. Macy’s fell 3%. Kohl’s fell 2%.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/the-retail-industry-is-at-its-breaking-point
No worries. It’s just the millennials preferring to shop online!
What do they WANT…I bought my lawnmower at Sears…last year some time…on sale …like 25% off….other than that….nope, nope, nope….
My favorite local second hand store is doing well. Just moved into a newer building. Its the wave of the future.
Agreed,
Just a paradigm shift to online purchasing.
Nothing to see here folks. Just move along now.
Going from walk in retail to internet sales is like going from taking a ferry to driving over a bridge. It’s faster and all these huge retail spaces that cost so much overhead that has to be tacked on to every sale can’t compete with digital sales via warehouses with robots and fast shipping right to the door. Times change and if people who own stock in major retail stores can’t read the writing on the wall, then a fool and his money are soon parted.
i’m sure next up will be 3-D virtual browsing on the Amazon web site, to give you that “mall shopping experience”, and being served by on-line robots that look and sound just like real people (without all their expensive fringe benefits and pension plans). Progress.
Quite so. But you can’t get a date from a virtual reality salesgirl. How eager people seem to forget or avoid Real Life! 🙂
Good analogy. A ferry needs a crew as well, jobs that pay money so people can afford to drive over the bridge, as it were.
Good points. In the context of collapse, we tend to be dismissive of the changes to retail, but some of the explanations are valid. I’m in my early 30s and I buy almost everything online. I don’t bother with driving all over the place to find something when I can locate *exactly* what I want within minutes on Amazon or eBay — it’s just not worth the trouble. I also think that department stores used to represent the cutting edge and were a place to go to find out what was in fashion. They no longer represent that and tend to carry things that are generic or dowdy compared to what people can find online.
One thing I am loathe to buy online is clothing … I really need to try something on before I buy it…
Amazon knows that and I understand that they allow you to return items at no cost….
Imagine how much that costs Amazon….
But of course Amazon is like Tesla — costs don’t matter … for now.
But at some point — when Amazon has left bricks and mortar looking like a bombed out Vietnamese village…. and they have a near monopoly on retail…
Guess what’s going to happen Mr Happy Millennial?
Returns ain’t gonna be free no more. Not unless Amazon invents a teleporter machine….like in Star Trek
And you can bet your bottom dollar prices are going to rise.
Jeff Bezos and his MBAs are right this minute regaling investors with tales of fees on this and fees on that that they are going to apply once the competition is napalmed….
And your love affair with buy and click is going to go sour.
Alas — the good news is that we are never going to arrive there…. because when you wipe out bricks and mortar you eventually get yourself a massive financial crisis —- because when you have thousands upon thousands empty malls and strip retailers …. that means owners collect no rent… and when owners collect no rent…. they do no service debt….
So go ahead — order another pair of jeans — awwwwhhh WTF … order 5 different brands — then see which one fits best and send the rest back.
Enjoy it while it lasts.
US Household Debt Surpasses 2008 High, Hits Record $12.7 Trillion
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/us-household-debt-surpasses-2008-high-hits-record-127-trillion
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2017/05/12/total%20debt%20q1_0.jpg
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/17/7b/72/177b7219c99dbc1c532b96fa55a3128a.jpg
I’m with you but cothes retail is so last century.
http://www.afr.com/technology/up-in-the-cloud-amazons-biggest-earner-is-its-computing-powerhouse-20161205-gt4alu
Get ahead of the rush. Load yourself up to the Cloud and let Amazon handle all the tricky stuff in life.
You can even pick out and customise all manner of virtual goods as long as you remember to use up your monthly credits before they get wiped!
Just pray they move the servers underground before the next solar storm hits…
Of course, if it disappears, it is gone.
Thanks for the link … I have not seen any of this in the MSM.
There is no fooking way this is Amazon-related only….
Amazon is not a start up —- it has been around for years…
This has got to be first and foremost a product of a brutal job market — no wage growth — and the fact that consumers are exercising a ‘no mas’ in terms of their ability to take on more debt.
The mother of all tsunamis is headed our way — and most people have not the slightest clue….
https://ih1.redbubble.net/image.121805196.2134/flat,800×800,075,f.u2.jpg
http://www.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/Vought-Cutlass/IMAGES/Vought-F7U-Cutlass-Crash.jpg
The thing about Amazon is that it’s a vicious cycle. Amazon draws sales away from retail so retailers carry fewer items. Retailers carry fewer items, so more people shop on Amazon. And on and on . . .
The selection follows the shoppers and the shoppers follow the selection. It’s a slow tide and this certainly didn’t happen overnight.
Online shopping is an issue — but not being able to afford to shop is a far bigger issue…
45% Of Americans Spend Up To Half Their Income Repaying Credit Card Debts (then there are student loans, mortgages, car loans….)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-01/45-americans-spend-half-income-repaying-excessivefrivolous-credit-card-debts
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user230519/imageroot/2017/05/01/2017.05.01%20-%20Debt%201_0.JPG
I don’t doubt that both of these are factors.
Shorts on REITs are up ~10% since I last posted about it around reaching bottom in April..
Lots of losers at the Dog Track down on all Street today.
How long before he slips on a banana peel?
https://thebaffler.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/comey_fired-final-700×579.jpg
Retail stores are a big worry. So are auto sales. It seems like we are not far from recession.
Have we survived recession in the past?
On the auto thing… apparently the current model is indeed dead in the water. What is being bandied about as its replacement is a transportation as a service model.
As usual as with any novel way of thinking we witness a knee jerk equal and opposite reaction to such skullduggery…
“I like to keep ma stuff in ma vehicle at all times”
“How am I gonna go offroading or camping or… some other off topic excuse”
“I don’t want to share”
“I don’t want the state telling me how to get around”
And for some reason much of that logic applies to electric vehicles too. For example…
“How are you going to power Rio Tinto trucks with batteries”
“And what about ships, planes and trucks”
So, to clarify, personal car sales would indeed go away over time for the majority of the population that does not have “special needs”
Transportation as a service would target urban areas and surroundings much as other forms of public transport have done only this would be more practical. All other vehicles would continue to use oil and be subsidised.
Oil consumption would go down. Remaining oil still used for roads and plastics etc. Would there be a problem with such a reduction?
Same goes for retail. Massive transformation in the way things get done. It all leads to mass unemployment and we’re already at 50% youth unemployment in some eu countries.
Large numbers of unemployed including children and retirees still need to get around locally at low cost
Monthly credits can be paid into individual accounts that have to be redeemed each month i.e. no hoarding. Not possible anyway with such small amounts. People have to eat.
Where does the money come from? that’s a good one. But look at how much the developed world spends on cosmetics, sugar, coffee, chocolate, plastic toys, etc etc etc
Trillions of dollars are wasted on unnecessary “stuff” along with the energy and effort that goes with it
we are not very smart
What would the smartest entity on the planet do?
Oh wait… silly me… I’ll just ask Fast Eddy, our resident god.
And on second thought maybe chocolate shouldn’t be on that list…
The gods are standing by…… what’s your question?
How much chocolate can I fit in a shipping container?
Unemployment sends government broke. After that living as we know it changes.
No gov? Yippee! Could be fun
But seriously though… I’m kind of parroting / parodying what others say will happen
not sure if it’s ironic or has some element of truth to it
could be because I have no idea how things are going to go down
it certainly looks like we’re sitting at the uppermost apex of the rollercoaster waiting for something to give us a little nudge…
going down will be sequential (as least as i figure it):
(this applies to any nation.)
A stable society must consume (finite) energy to maintain stability.
(confirmed by energy input slowdown producing immediate recession)
Therefore as energy input slows, and it becomes apparent it isn’t going to restart. denial will kick in, so governments will start collapsing and reforming, each with a new ”policy” to put things right.
with each ”downstage” politicians will get more desperate with their promises, as more and more people enter a state of physical depravation and desperation. Transport slowdown means food slowdown
Once food is obviously getting short (rows of empty supermarket shelves), governments will lose credibility altogether, and civil disorder will break out–sporadically at first, then en masse.
There will then be no option but to introduce martial law, under a dictator. any constitution will be suspended, and democratic assembly disbanded (or worse)
This cannot kickstart an energy-short economy, though your dictator will insist that it can. Anyone who says otherwise will be jailed (or worse). Disagreeing media will be shut down. There will be plenty of helpers to do this.
So the downspiral will continue, until the dictatorship itself runs out of energy.
The population will continue to reduce itself to a low balance point of self support.
After that there may be recovery—depends how low we go.
Norman – I am not so sure about the dictatorship phase…
When growth stops — the financial system stops — and total chaos will soon follow.
I do not expect a dictatorship — because there will be no point in maintaining a dictatorship.
And there will be no means to maintain a dictatorship (a dictatorship requires fuel – why waste stock piles on trying to delay the inevitable)
There will be no economy — so what point would there be in trying to maintain control over millions of people who cannot even feed themselves?
Why try to feed them? Just let them die.
If I am in the elite I draw back into one of these — and wait… no doubt they would have years of supplies … and radiation filters…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Nuclear_bunkers_in_the_United_States
i wouldnt expect a dictatorship to last long—as you say they need fuel.
i should have said—a series of petty dictatorships of fiefdoms, all short lived and self exhausting
That makes sense.
Yes – we have survived recessions in the past…
How?
We dropped interest rates. We launched stimulus.
In case you hadn’t noticed — rates are near zero — so dropping them will have no impact now.
As for stimulus — there are literally trillions of stimulus surging through the global economy now … and yet recession threatens.
Take for instance autos — rates are at record lows — and the pay back periods are longer than ever — subprime is nearly 30% of the market … rebates are at record levels… and people are drowning in debt… Yet sales are plunging
How do you turn that around?
I suggest you google the term ‘pushing on a string’
Gail – I suggest FW offer an internship program. New people don’t get to post until they have lurked for say a year….
It would save people like Buzz from making a fo.ol of himself
He’s yet another poster one just has to scroll past. In the past I used to have few drinks and take potshots at them but I’ve cut down so there’s no longer any fun in it.
futuresystemsanalyst cut down on alcohol?? I would have thought that regulars here, with the knowledge of what we are facing, would actually increase their intake!! 😉
Someone asked for a replacement fool so I offered my services
I am not as new as you think I am
can’t see the fun in agreeing all the time
I can see that you’re tired of your role as resident god / gatekeeper / bully
looking for ways to automate
maybe you should retire as you have become obsolete
Fast Eddy will never be obsolete — Fast Eddy will never retire
http://izquotes.com/quotes-pictures/quote-only-two-things-are-infinite-the-universe-and-human-stupidity-and-i-m-not-sure-about-the-former-albert-einstein-56412.jpg
Hi Futuresys
How do you know I’m a he?
You can save your scrolling finger. I’m not here for long. Just having some fun taking pot shots at the locals before the world explodes
since everything is going to hell in a handbasket what difference does it make what we say or do
you could say one is a little bit peeved at not having a future. FE makes sure to remind me of that fact every time he posts. It’s relentless. It makes me want to vomit
Personally I don’t think there can be any rational measured response to the kind of discussion that takes place on this blog
I understand the predicament that we are in
What I can’t understand is the morbid acceptance and mutual back slapping that goes on here. Somehow it doesn’t fit the theme
If you truly are the only people on the planet to have figured this out then what I would like to see is a panel of Our Finite Worlders face off against the best of the best of everyone else
now that would be fun
and a fair fight
on this blog that’s just not possible
Is a MOREon a he – she – or transgender?
Buzz,
There are commenters here from every walk of life. And there are lurkers here, with an even broader view of life.
By putting our views and thoughts out in the open, free for anyone to bash, we in fact invite everybody for a good peer review of all of the views or thoughts presented here. But we also expect some respect for facts and logic. A small pinch of reality would be nice with the bashing..
Now after a few years of throwing every possible idea, solution, technology, innovation and systems thinking at the problem.. here we are. Zero solutions. And the predicament seems even worse, when we factor in all of the hypercomplexity that will also crash. Many have left, when finally getting the situation, angry, disappointed, raving about how morbid it all is. Yet. There are a few extremely sharp commenters here who by the goodness of their heart still keep on providing powerful insights and excellent links for everybody to enjoy. Not a bad community, at all.
Transformation Eddy… tranformation
Like this?
Yeeesss… sprinkled with dash of this…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/rue21-latest-retailer-file-bankruptcy
http://www.jocelynjackson.life/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/AnotherOne.jpg
as interest rates rise more and more businesses will fail until finally the system will finally go but that will not be the end
That’s why frbny will not allow rates to rise.
Carmageddon: All 3 Major Auto Markets Contract YoY For The First Time Since January 2009
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/carmageddon-all-3-major-auto-markets-contract-yoy-first-time-january-2009
Cisco now expects revenue to plunge between 4 and 6% in its last fiscal quarter. Wall Street’s estimate: a modest 1% drop. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-17/cisco-plunges-after-slashing-revenue-guidance
http://img.picturequotes.com/2/433/432484/things-fall-apart-the-center-cannot-hold-quote-1.jpg
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“Worthy endeavor with an interested motive nearly always results in the exact opposite of what was intended. Thus, education aimed at producing literates for industry produces illiterates for anarchy. The more motorways the more accidents , the more psychiatrists the more lunacy, hypochondria burgeons with the health service, and delinquency with remedial prisons.” Malcom Muggeridge
Secondhand smoke is not a problem.
If children don’t like to be in a smoky room, they’ll leave.
(As for infants) … at some point, they crawl.
— Charles Harper, chairman, RJR Tobacco Company
lol
and…
If God wanted you to smoke he would have created you with your nose the other way around that way when it rains it would clean you out.
Earth to OFW, earth to OFW, come in please. Focus people, focus.
ah what god wants us to do well god has left us clear instructions and that is to prep while you have time to do so the clock is ticking and time is running out
Exactly, Adonis.
God wishes us – if I recall the Bible correctly – to keep our lamps trimmed and ready, like the Wise Virgins. Not like the negligent and unprepared foolish ones!
They say there are no atheists in fox holes..
Well… the closer we get to the edge… and we are very close indeed… the more I find the concept of god more ridiculous than ever.
That’s a good one, jerry. I wondered one day if they could put smokers under anesthesia and flush their lungs with some kind of cleansing foam or liquid to remove all the tar and nicotine build up. Rather drastic but not as dramatic as using a saw on the breast bone then pulling the rib cage open for heart surgery.
There is some truth to what Muggeridge says.
We all know the feeling when the products we are accustomed to reduce portions. Ritz sells a handi-snack crackers and cheese, that removed the red diddly used to spread cheese on crackers which I don’t mind because I just use the crackers, but now they’ve reduced the amount of cheese so it’s only enough for 3 crackers instead of the 4 crackers it use to cover. Also the cheese is lighter in color so the volume is being stretched to a greater volume. Also the crackers are lighter in color so they reduced the time baked. I feel like the ice skater Nancy Kerrigan when she was hit in the leg with a baton and exclaimed, “Why Me?!”
Diminishing returns have reached crackers…the end is near for sure now 😉
4 crackers will turn into 2 and the cheese will go from what it is now – off white cheddar with less flavor to white with almost no flavor, and the 2 crackers will be soft and doughy because they didn’t bake long enough and at too low a temperature. Just before collapse it will go to a half unbaked cracker, a tiny dollop of white uncultured imitation cheese but the price will be quadrupled. Minimum wage will be 2 dollars an hour and it will take 4 hours labor to buy that tragically worthless itsy bitsy snack.
You think?
https://68.media.tumblr.com/a2a57b03b947819634bed0a007d06d92/tumblr_oodgloXYOF1rlb7pso1_250.gif
Sounds like something you shouldn’t eat anyway.
Crappification:
‘Artist Quality’ oil paints are now mostly cheap fillers, and hairs keep on falling out of the paint brushes at the first use – this never happened 20 years ago.
Top-quality paint is still available, thankfully, and the eye-watering prices make one realise what is going on with the former ‘premium’ brands.
God knows what is in ‘student’ paints now…..
But yes, eventually -soon? – the best will no longer be viable and become unavailable.
THE FALLACY OF ENDLESS ECONOMIC GROWTH
https://psmag.com/magazine/fallacy-of-endless-growth
Thanks! Interesting that these articles are coming back out again, bring up 1972, “The Limits to Growth.” Meadows’ study pretty much “nailed” the timing. There is no financial system or debt in the model, so the shape of the curve is no doubt optimistic.
With the financial system taken into account, all of a sudden this:
http://www.explainingthefuture.com/images/peak_oil_curve.jpg
Becomes this:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-VK04KNf0nAQ/UyKEQWWwiRI/AAAAAAAABFs/aSwf91aT-v8/s1600/Seneca+Cliff.jpg
I can see the future of that bus
http://images0.naharnet.com/images/161306/w460.jpg
Funny…. a 5 yr old could easily understand the limits to growth… but adults need books and studies and PHDs to tell them that unlimited growth is not possible on a finite planet.
Ugo
Has had a blow out.
http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.it/?m=1
Not sure what you mean by a blow out, but did like the following from that article:
“But states or industrial companies compete by exploiting the available resources as fast as possible. They have no advantage in the capability of planning for the long term, especially when the results of the planning is that they should slow down the exploitation rate. Doing that would only give more chances to their competitors who don’t. So, the behavior of human colonies remains dictated by one very simple rule: grow as much as possible and don’t care about anything else.”
That’s humans in a nutshell. Exploit resources as fast as possible, or as I refer to it, “Pedal to the metal.” No long term planning is done that would slow that rate of exploitation because of losses to competition. Grow baby grow! Whatever it is we are doing, however that may be termed, we will keep our foot down on the accelerator as hard and fast as we can until limits are reached that force a slow down against our determined will. But even then it may only be limits for those not able to keep up, i.e. those that can will continue to do so. It may be a game of musical chairs that could go on for a long time as the number of chairs dwindles. Right now over a billion live on a dollar a day, but that could turn into 5 billion with 2-3 billion still living the high life.
I agree that that is the whole issue in a nutshell. In hunter-gatherer times, you couldn’t leave resources for later. They would rot or someone would come along and eat them. If your neighbor is exploiting nearby resources NOW, you better get in on the game.
That’s why we have such a hard time reducing fossil fuel usage to prevent AGW, too. If one country stops while the rest of the world doesn’t, all it means is that that one country’s economy tanks. That’s why it takes so much negotiation at an international level to get anyone to budge.
If Great Britain had renounced industrial development in the 1780’s, seeing the ultimate environmental consequences for us now, then Imperial France, seizing the new technology and able to develop it, would simply have taken everything.
Once started, there is no opting out: unless you wish to be Somalia……
I agree.
No resources (that can be used) would ever be left untouched…any species (even a “clever” one like us) that comes into a resource they can use, will use it, multiply their numbers and than crash when said resource is no longer adequate to sustain the overshoot…even if future humans would have gone back in time and warn the humans who were just kicking off Industrial Civilization to stop because it turns out to be a total disaster would have been told to eff off and go back to their (bleak) future 🙂
a book has been written on exactly that subject
https://www.amazon.co.uk/Iron-Bridge-David-Morse/dp/0151002592
ive read it—masses of research detail in it, it’s where i live, so lots to relate to
the subject is that a girl goes back in time from the 2040s to seduce Abraham Darby, to take his mind off industrial revolutionizing, so that he messes up and everybody loses interest in the idea
Thanks Norman, sounds interesting, I will check it out!
So true.
Try telling an ‘environmentalist’ who moans about plastic packaging that perhaps they did not really need what was in the plastic package to begin with … and see how far you get with that.
To such people what others buy is frivolous… but what they buy is always an absolute must.
Even if they already have 3 pairs of shoes….
Give an ‘environmentalist’ a $10,000 gift certificate at Walmart… and see if he tears it up.
If all countries reduce fossil fuel usage, the world economy tanks. In fact, it probably only takes a few big countries to reduce fossil fuel usage (say China, United States, and Germany), and the world economy tanks.
It doesn’t matter how much negotiation is used, the result of reducing fossil fuel usage is to collapse economies.
nobody can stop or slow down voluntarily
the slightest % fall throws 000s out of work
a big % fall throws millions out of work and you get insurrection—which is exactly what will happen anyway
I agree that this article seems a bit strange.
Here we go again
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-16/wtirbob-extened-losses-after-unexpected-crude-build
The reality is hard to take.
That stupid glut just won’t go away! Maybe every oil producer should just take a week and stop delivering oil to refineries, or maybe even a month. I bet a month of abstinence would replace two years of feeble cut backs.
Abstinence doesn’t work. There are often costs associated with cutting off production. If nothing else, businesses have overhead expenses to cover that they cannot cover.
This is a perfect illustration of the effect being embodied a complex system has: for an individual, abstinence, retrenchment, austerity, etc, work very well in recovering a situation, and is a rational response.
For a complex industry, embodied in an even more complex debt-driven economy, it’s impossible and would bring lack of viability, and eventually ruin.
Good points!
I don’t see $120 per barrel oil very soon.
There has been an insinuation that there might be some kind of religious solution.
Well let’s examine the possibilities. First of all we need to examine life after death is it real or a fantasy?
The facts are the belief of immortality of the soul originated in Babylon around 2000BCE. It was Nimrods mother Semiramis who used it to deify her son as the son god Marduk. Plato canonized it and during the Hellenation of the Jews the teaching set in among the Pharisees.
The fact remains that the original Hebrews believed in a resurrection not immortality. The original Hebrew word for Soul is breather. And animals and man were equal as breathers.
So death as it turns out is the opposite of life. Just a pile of dust. Just like the Bible record.
Since Adams rebellion man has been alienated from his creator.
So if we think there will be some messiah who will continue BAU think again. This world is built to the glory of man.
The universe has built to the glory of its maker. Jehovah is it’s maker and sustainer. All creation must recognize that fact or parish. Not because of some vindictive God but rather do to true ignorance.
We have been designed to live in an environment. We can respect that or we can try to live on Mars. Like a fish we can choose to stay in our environment or we can try to live in land.
That’s free will we can choose between right and wrong but we can’t determine right and wrong. That was Eves test she failed. Adam the spineless weakling he was listened her voice.
So here we are a collapse that is existential because man is so brilliant.
Satan wanted to be God. Eve thought she could be like God. Man today wants to live like Gods.
Well sorry creation has limits.
You’ll be very surprised when your time comes. Ask anyone who’s had a near death experience, like myself. This is not the only reality. You don’t get off so easy as to live and then not exist again. Just cause you can’t remember what came before doesn’t mean something didn’t. Like Elanor Roosevelt said, “It’s just as likely we live multiple lives as it is living only one.” Do this, drown yourself and have someone revive you and see what you experienced. Might change your mind, but of course drowning is such a bitch. Maybe someone should start a business; ‘See The Light’, guaranteed visit to the other side or your money back. Be sure to sign up for life ins. first.
…….and here’s to the multi trillions that never existed at all…your brother and sister that were never born…..the barren men and women, those that died before they could conceive or inseminate, those that were aborted or stillborn, those born without brainstems and those born mentally retarded.
Your death is exactly the same to you, as it was before you were conceived. What transpires while you are alive in time, is as fleeting as a forgotten thought.
tis said, that you are not dead until all those who knew you are also dead
just a passing thought
A question on my mind recently has been: if Christians see Jesus, Muslims see Mohammed, and Vikings see Freya the Lady of the Labyrinth (my preferred encounter in the invisible realms) in ND experiences, would Elon Musk appear to his believers in that brief moment before being pushed back’ because you are needed on Earth’?
When Elon was negotiating his package for his new role as Saviour… his request for a private jet was initially rejected…
Apparently the Elders said – f789 Elon — you are the renewable energy god — you can’t fly around in a f789ing private jet – how will that look?
To which Elon reportedly replied — people are f789 stupid – they won’t make the connection.
The Elders said – ok – but if too many people make a fuss – it has to go
Funny that they skipped this logic with Al Gore and Leonardo di Caprio…
Does Elon have beachfront mega mansions tho?
Hmm… apparently not. But then…
https://therealdeal.com/la/2017/03/22/elon-musk-buys-fifth-bel-air-property-for-24-25m/
…he is a true believer in rising sea levels.
And he’s moving underground…
https://www.wired.com/2017/01/inside-tunnel-elon-musk-already-digging-los-angeles/
…so maybe he knows something we don’t… you know… being an insider and all
And he wants to control the flow of all information on planet earth from the heavens no less…
https://qz.com/885060/spacexs-leaked-finances-show-elon-musk-is-betting-big-on-satellite-internet/
Wow… he really is sizing up to be god of earth. You have competition FE
It is becoming more and more accepted that the foundation of the universe is information.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/blogs/physics/2014/04/is-information-fundamental/
The problem being encountered is where did the information originate from.
Some have said: “entropy is nothing more or less than the loss of information” pretty correct from my point of view.
So if existence is really the accumulation of information as is being postulated then what happens at death. Is the information lost? Does it exist without someone who can identify it? This is a big question because one has to determine if information is discovered or created. If we believe information is created we have a problem how did we get here? Because it would mean that we are the center of the universe in effect we are gods of observation. So is what we observe the only reality? Deep field pictures from Hubble demonstrate that things exist that we have not observed. So reality can’t be based on observations.
If we spend some time with fractal geometry it becomes obvious that there is design at every level. John Barnsley was moved to express it was how God created a universe that allows free will. The point is design exists from the galactic to quantum level.
The problem is where there is design there is purpose. Try to overcome that statement.
If the universe has purpose than what is it? I’m sure it’s not implosion.
When we find that purpose things become very clear.
DNA is an excellent example of this idea that we originate from information. The incredible durability of DNA and the density of information in it will outlast any medium humans have created to store information for the ages. Science has been able to peek at very ancient DNA of complex life on this planet that has been extinct for millions of years. That is truly remarkable. That something organic can last that long blows my mind.
It should Greg
Ec 3:14
14 I have come to know that everything the true God makes will endure forever. There is nothing to add to it and nothing to subtract from it. The true God has made it this way, so that people will fear him.
always seems a very tetchy sort of god to me
easily upset if you know what i mean—all that wrath etc. at the slightest thing.
if i was god, I would want to make me heaven to be with, without having to get dead first. That really puts me off the whole godbothering caper somehow. the dying part.
wrath has gotta be bad for business—after all, who wants to go in a shop where the proprietor is always wreaking vengeance on his customers?
And using his shop assistants to—–well better not go into too much detail there
I get it, god seems more like the Hulk to you…”Hulk Smash!”
“I the captain of a Legion of Rome have learnt and pondered this truth. In life there are but 2 things love and power and no man can have both.” {Inscription on a stone tablet found in North Africa}
“Because of the spread of wickedness the love of most men will grow cold,” Mathew 24:12
With or without oil when love dies that will truly be the end of mankind period.
For me god is like the anti-tooth fairy…
The tooth fairy wants to give me money
God wants to take my money
How little you know Norm. Your mind is twisted to believe in a wrathful god. Not the case. The exact opposite.
the wrath is probably all my fault
i find sin irresistible
For all the threats of fire and brimstone and wrath …. god has been rather lenient with me so far… given my sins are epic this is rather a surprise…
Or not….
Yea, if one must count on a psychopathic sky daddy, it is a given you are screwed.
“If people are good only because they fear punishment, and hope for reward, then we are a sorry lot indeed. ” – Albert Einstein
that was before he invented uranium
now look what a mess we’re in
If he invented uranium then he is responsible for the fuel ponds.
Einstein = Devil
It goes without saying that we are a sorry lot indeed…
Imagine what would happen if we went full Koombaya Snowflake and banned police, courts and prisons…. and instead encouraged would be criminals to dance around the campfire and eat organic oatmeal…
Imagine the outcome… (it would be very different than Mr Lennon’s Imagine…. me thinks)
Hahaha That was a doozy of a comment!!!
I mean pm’s comment 🙂
If God could deliver heaven on earth rather than a promise of it after death — along with immortality…. that would be a PR victory. Even I would join up for that.
But he doesn’t. Because he cannot — and that would expose his game. And nobody would donate.
Jim Jones… Ron L Hubbard… Jesus…. Allah… etc
http://soilfirst.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/snakeoil3.jpg
It is a good reminder that our individuality really only exists on the informational level. The data within us might be unique, but the actual matter within our physical form is always being circulated with the environment. You are the environment, the environment is you. Humans tend to naively forget this.
The problem of consciousness is a fascinating one. There is a lot of evidence pointing to consciousness as some kind of creative agent, but it’s not fully understood. This is one question I really wish science would address while it’s still around.
Someone please correct me if I’m wrong, but in physics the concept of observation is broader than in everyday usage. Things exist that we have not observed *directly* in the sense of seeing them, but that doesn’t mean we haven’t observed their effects here on earth. Observation might include receiving heat, light, energy, or matter from those regions, even if it was a long time ago. Consider Schroedinger’s cat. There are technically ways to observe whether the cat is alive or dead other than viewing the cat itself. If I recall correctly, experiments have shown that probabilities collapse even through very creative and indirect forms of observation.
If your premise that free-will is designed, then you have failed quite badly. It’s been demonstrated repeatedly the free-will is an illusion. Of course free-will has its basis in the assumption that humans are special and that thinking has placed us on an unalterable treadmill to destruction.
Organised religion operates on discussing concepts of good and bad, right and wrong, heaven and hell, free-will and the will of their various gods. It’s extremely important for religion to maintain the illusion of free-will, without it the need for religion loses much of its significance. So the concept will be defended at ALL costs.
I wonder when a smart aleck first conceived of free-will. I guess humans (our ancestors) were happily wandering their world, oblivious and ignorant until then. How were they able to live and die in such ignorance?
Eckhart Tolle suggests that when Jesus said of his tormentors, “Forgive them, father, for they know not what they do,” (Luke 23:34) he was speaking literally. In other words they were ‘spiritually unconscious’ entities acting out preconditioned behaviours. That preconditioning may be personal or it may be inherited from the deep well of human trauma.
So on one level, we could say that free will is a function of spiritual maturity. The more present you are, the more conscious, the less reactive, the greater your ability to choose how to respond to any given set of circumstances. And the more challenging those circumstances, the more likely you are to be pulled back into unconscious behaviours. As Ram Dass said, “If you think you’re enlightened, go spend a week with your family.”
Of course if we pull back the lens and, incorporating Gail’s analysis, understand our role in terms of energy dissipation and the transference of genetic information, we can see that actually free will, if it operates in us at all, operates within a very narrow band – a thin patina atop greater forces such as DNA and the laws of physics.
Pulling the lens back further, and taking the Buddhist standpoint, one could argue that ultimately the self is illusory so there is no fixed person who could actually have something called free will. On that basis, the state of presence that Tolle talks about, actually entails operating in concert with the universal intelligence and doing *its* will. From this state of cosmic unity, acts of compassion will tend to arise.
Pulling back the lens and viewing human activity from above we look like… cancer.
The cancer analogy is mostly apt but a human brain is the most complex known structure in the universe. Perhaps the universal intelligence wanted to experience itself through the medium of billions of these entities, so that a gorgeous sunset could be acknowledged as such and provoke emotions and inspire creative outpourings. As well as all the ugliness there has been Mozart and Beethoven and Shakespeare and Goethe.
There were many experimental brains prior to the human one. It is complex according to us and according to what we have to compare it. It’s also most likely a lethal evolutionary development, so not so “great”. The truest saying IMO is “everything is relative”. Without comparisons I guess we are resigned to deal with opinions.
Don’t worry I’m with you. Just had to make that comment to see how it felt.
If only we could tame the cancerous growth and settle into a harmonious way of life while maintaining current levels of technological progress but it is looking sketchy to say the least.
I don’t think our appreciation of aesthetics is anything special – just an accident of natural selection. Peahens look peacocks up and down when assessing their suitability as a mate. Think about that… nature cripples this bird with beautiful display feathers to prove how much of a survivor it is.
Other animals hold song and dance competitions much like our own for the same reasons.
Much of traditional rituals stem from reptilian territorial displays to avoid direct conflict or to prepare for it.
Whales and crickets and birds and frogs are all fantastic singers and their performances are graded by their potential mates.
Most animal life on the planet achieves similar goals to our own only vastly more efficiently. Butterflies cross the Atlantic, termites construct air conditioned towers, beavers build dams, bees construct honey farms, most appreciate some form of aesthetic qualities.
To another organism a “gorgeous” sunset passes unnoticed because that behaviour has not been selected for survival. Others could find it repulsive in the way we find rotting corpses repulsive. In some humans appreciation of pretty landscapes may help reinforce connection with the land, the earth and nature imbuing them with a sense of stewardship. Whether this actually translates into some kind of practical behaviour for the survival of the species or not is not clear. It may all be a huge red herring based on mistaken romantic beliefs.
‘If only we could tame the cancerous growth’
You mean stop growth?
That would be a disaster:
https://i0.wp.com/www.fivestarsandamoon.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Deflation-Downward-Spiral-Singapore.jpg
We understand VERY little about the universe.
I recommend psychedelics for the profanely curious. Ironically, it’s
(a type of) information overload because it “connects” areas of the brain that are normally not connected.
https://www.shroomery.org/9067/What-do-the-different-trip-levels-Lvl-1-5-mean
I’ve “touched” level 5, but that was a long time ago. Use with caution, you will be “changed”
in some states i think you can get arrested for that
only if you get caught lol
meant to say “prolifically curious” fwiw
Snorp
Drugery or Pharmchia isn’t what you think it is. Check out the origin.
What origin are you referring to? The biblical?The shamanistic? The cultural? The medical?
The biblical reference is connected with spiritism, thus considered a no no.
Man has always experimented with change of consciousness.
Even animals eat fermented fruit and get drunk, they just don’t know about lampshades.
ok too much posting for a lurker……..
As they say, “You are on the bus, or your off the bus”
If you want to know about information and where you came from, I recommend Megacancer. Information exists to be translated, into tools and structure that in turn break open the energy gradients that provides the energy to conserve and reproduce the information. I think most people want everything to be mysterious so they can insert their favorite narrative.
I recommend reading the book, The Theory of Opposite Sub-verses, available at Amazon.com. A simplistic explanation for the design of the Universe that solves a lot of mysteries. For example why is Universe expansion accelerating?
Increasing # & size of black holes, is proportional to
Elimination of the 4th dimension fabric of space-time, is proportional to
Reduced cohesiveness of the 4th dimension, is proportional to
Reduced resistance to the original expansive force of the Big Bang, is proportional to
Accelerating universe expansion.
Those proportional events are only possible in a universe with opposite sub-verses, but that’s only possible with opposite catalysts. Oh, that’s right, it’s super hot in the Big Bang and near absolute zero when compressing into a black hole. Opposite catalysts for opposite states of mass, with one state generating the 4th D. & the other eliminating it. Opposite Sub-verses are the engine of oscillation via proportional events.
How about reading, “Cosmic Evolution: The Rise of Complexity in Nature,” by Eric Chaisson?
For example, in Chaisson’s view, the human brain uses a much greater amount of energy, relative to its size, than a galaxy.[4]
Chaisson asserts that increases in complexity are consistent with the second law of thermodynamics; according to one reviewer, the second law might suggest that complexity should decrease with the universe “slouching toward disorder.”[1][5] However, Chaisson argues that complexity can increase because complex structures such as a star can “generate and sustain complexity by exporting enough disorder to its surrounding environment to more than make up for its internal gains.”[5] From this perspective, Chaisson offers a definition of life as an “open, coherent, space-time structure maintained far from thermodynamic equilibrium by a flow of energy through it.”[1]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_Evolution_(book)
Nice!
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