Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?

Many countries have assumed that natural gas imports will be available for balancing electricity produced by intermittent wind and solar, whenever they are needed. The high natural gas import prices recently being encountered in Europe, and especially in the UK, appear to be an indication of an underlying problem. Could the world already be hitting natural gas limits?

One reason few people expect a problem with natural gas is because of the immense quantities reported as proven reserves. For all countries combined, these reserves at December 31, 2020 were equal to 48.8 times world natural gas production in 2020. Thus, in theory, the world could continue to produce natural gas at the current rate for almost 50 years, without even trying to find more natural gas resources.

Ratios of natural gas reserves to production vary greatly by country, giving a hint that the indications may be unreliable. High reserves make an exporting country appear to be dependable for many years in the future, whether or not this is true.

Figure 1. Ratio of natural gas reserves at December 31, 2020, to natural gas production for the year 2020, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States. It includes Russia and the countries to the south of Russia that were included in the former Soviet Union.

As I see the issue, these reserves are unlikely to be produced unless world oil prices rise to a level close to double what they are today and stay at such a high level for several years. I say this because the health of the oil and gas industries are closely intertwined. Of the two, oil has historically been the major profit-maker, enabling adequate funds for reinvestment. Prices have been too low for oil producers for about eight years now, cutting back on investment in new fields and export capability. This low-price issue is what seems to be leading to limits to the natural gas supply, as well as a limit to the oil supply.

Figure 2. Inflation adjusted oil prices based on EIA monthly average Brent oil prices, adjusted by the CPI Urban. The chart shows price data through October 2020. The Brent oil price at September 24, 2021 is about $74 per barrel, which is still very low relative to what oil companies require to make adequate reinvestment.

In this post, I will try to explain some of the issues involved. In some ways, a dire situation already seems to be developing.

[1] Taking a superficial world view, natural gas seems to be doing fairly well. It is only when a person starts analyzing some of the pieces that problems start to become clear.

Figure 3. World oil, coal and natural gas supply based on data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

Figure 3 shows that natural gas supply has been rising, year after year. There was a brief dip in 2009, at the time of the Great Recession, and a slightly larger dip in 2020, related to COVID-19 restrictions. Overall, production has been growing at a steady rate. Compared to oil and coal, the recent growth pattern of natural gas has been more stable.

The quantity of exports of natural gas tends to be much more variable. Figure 4 compares inter-regional trade for coal and natural gas. Here, I have ignored local trade and only considered trade among fairly large blocks of countries, such as North America, Europe and Russia combined with its close affiliates.

Figure 4. Total inter-regional trade among fairly large groupings of countries (such as Europe and North America) based on trade data provided by BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy.

If a person looks closely at the growth of natural gas imports in Figure 4, it becomes clear that growth in natural gas is a feast or famine proposition, given to upward spurts, dips and flat periods. It is my understanding that in the early years, natural gas was typically traded under long-term contracts, on a “take or pay” basis. The price was often tied to the oil price. This generous pricing structure allowed natural gas exports to grow rapidly in the 2000 to 2008 period. The Great Recession cut back the need for natural gas imports and also led to downward pressure on the pricing of exports.

After the Great Recession, natural gas import prices tended to fall below oil prices (Figure 5) except in Japan, where stability of supply is very important. Another change was that an increasing share of exported natural gas was sold in the “spot” market. These prices fluctuate depending on changes in supply and demand, making them much more variable.

Figure 5. Comparison of annual average natural gas prices with corresponding Brent oil price, based on information from BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Natural gas prices per million Btus converted to barrel of oil equivalent prices by multiplying by 6.0.

Looking back at Figure 4, natural gas exports were close to flat between 2011 and 2016. Such flat exports, together with falling export prices in the 2013 to 2016 period (Figure 5), would have been a nightmare for oil and gas companies doing long-range planning for oil exports. Exports spurted upward in the 2016 to 2019 period, and then fell back in 2020 (Figure 4). All of the volatility in the growth rate of required new production, combined with uncertainty of the pricing of exports, reduced interest in planning for projects that would increase natural gas export capability.

[2] In 2021, quite a number of countries seem to be ramping up natural gas imports at the same time. This is likely one issue leading to the spiking spot prices in Europe for natural gas.

Now that the economy is recovering from the effects of COVID-19, Europe is trying to ramp up its natural gas imports, probably to a level above the import level in 2019. Figure shows that both China and Other Asia Pacific are also likely to be ramping up their imports, providing a great deal of competition for imports.

Figure 6. Areas with net natural gas imports, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Other Asia Pacific excludes Japan, China and Australia.

It is no surprise that China’s natural gas imports are rising rapidly. With China’s rapid economic growth, it needs energy resources of whatever kinds it can obtain. Natural gas is cleaner-burning than coal. The CO2 emitted when burning natural gas is lower, as well. (These climate benefits may be partially or fully offset by methane lost in shipping natural gas as liquefied natural gas (LNG), however.)

In Figure 6, the sudden appearance and rapid rise of Other Asia Pacific imports can be explained by the fact that this figure shows the net indications for a combination of natural gas importers (including South Korea, India, and Taiwan) and exporters (including Malaysia and Indonesia). In recent years, natural gas import growth has greatly exceeded export growth. It would not be surprising if this rapid rise continues, since this part of the world is one that has been increasing its manufacturing in recent years.

If anyone had stepped back to analyze the situation in 2019, it would have been clear that, in the near future, natural gas exports would need to be rising extremely rapidly to meet the needs of all of the importers simultaneously. The dip in Europe’s natural gas imports due to COVID-19 restrictions in 2020 temporarily hid the problem. Now that Europe is trying to get back to normal, there doesn’t seem to be enough to go around.

[3] Apart from the United States, it is hard to find a part of the world where natural gas exports are rapidly rising.

Figure 7. Natural gas exports by area, based on trade data of BP’s 2021 Statistical Review of World Energy. Russia+ is the Commonwealth of Independent States. It includes Russia and the countries to the south of Russia that were included in the former Soviet Union.

Russia+ is by far the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. Even with Russia+’s immense exports, its total exports (about 10 exajoules a year, based on Figure 7) still fall short of Europe’s natural gas import needs (at least 12 exajoules a year, based on Figure 6). The dip in Russia+’s natural gas exports in 2020 no doubt reflects the fact that Europe’s imports fell in 2020 (Figure 6). Since these exports were mostly pipeline exports, there was no way that Russia+ could sell the unwanted natural gas elsewhere, lowering its total exports.

At this point, there seems to be little expectation for a major rise in natural gas exports from Russia+ because of a lack of capital to spend on such projects. Russia built the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but it doesn’t seem to have a huge amount of new natural gas exports to put into the pipeline. As much as anything, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline seems to be a way of bypassing Ukraine with its exports.

Figure 7 shows that the Middle East’s natural gas exports rose in the period 2000 to 2011, but they have since leveled off. A major use for Middle Eastern natural gas is to produce electricity to support the local economies. Before the Middle East ramped up its natural gas production, much of the electricity was obtained by burning oil. The sales price the Middle East can get for selling its natural gas is far below the price it can get for selling oil, especially when the high cost of shipping the natural gas is considered. Thus, it makes sense for Middle Eastern countries to use the natural gas themselves, saving the oil, since the sale of oil produces more export revenue.

Africa’s natural gas exports have fallen, in part because of depletion of the early natural gas fields in Algeria. In theory, Africa’s natural gas exports could rise to a substantial level, but it is doubtful this will happen quickly because of the large amount of capital required to build LNG export facilities. Furthermore, Africa is badly in need of fuel for itself. Local authorities may decide that if natural gas is available, it should be used for the benefit of the people in the area.

Australia’s natural gas exports have risen mostly as a result of the Gorgon LNG Project off the northwest coast of Australia. This project was expected to be high cost at $37 billion when it was approved in 2009. The actual cost soared to $54 billion, according to a 2017 cost estimate. The high (and uncertain) cost of large LNG projects makes investors cautious regarding new investments in LNG exports. S&P Global by Platts reported in June, 2021, “Australia’s own exports are expected to be relatively stable in the coming years.” This statement was made after saying that a project in Mozambique, Africa, is being cancelled because of stability issues.

The country with the largest increase in natural gas exports in recent years is the United States. The US is not shown separately in Figure 7, but it represents the largest portion of natural gas exported from North America. Prior to 2017, North America was a net importer of natural gas, including LNG from Trinidad and Tobago, Egypt, Algeria and elsewhere.

[4] The United States has a strange reason for wanting to export large quantities of natural gas overseas: Its natural gas prices have been too low for producers for a long time. Natural gas producers hope the exports will raise natural gas prices within the US.

Natural gas prices vary widely around the world because the fuel is expensive to ship and difficult to store. Figure 5 (above) shows that, at least since 2009, US natural gas prices have been unusually low.

The main reason why the price of natural gas dropped around 2009 seems to have been a ramp up in US shale oil production that started about this time. While the main objective of most of the shale drilling was oil, natural gas was a byproduct that came along. Oil producers were willing to almost give the natural gas away, if they could make money on the oil. However, they also had trouble making money on the oil extraction. That seems to be the reason why oil extraction from shale is now being reduced.

Figure 8 shows a chart prepared by the US Energy Administration showing US dry natural gas production, by type: non-shale, Appalachia shale and other shale.

Figure 8. Figure by EIA showing US natural gas production in three categories.

Based on Figure 8, the timing of the ramp up of natural gas from shale seems to correspond with the timing in the drop in natural gas prices. By 2008 (the first year shown on this chart), gas from shale formations had risen to well over 10% of US natural gas production. At this level, it would be expected to have an impact on prices. Adding natural gas to an already well-supplied market would be likely to reduce US natural gas prices because, with natural gas, the situation isn’t “build it, and demand will come.”

People don’t raise the temperature to which they heat their homes, at least not very much, simply because the natural gas price is lower. The use of natural gas as a transport fuel has not caught on because of all of the infrastructure that would be required to enable the transition. The one substitution that has tended to take place is the use of natural gas to replace coal, particularly in electricity generation. This likely means that a major shift back to coal use cannot really be done, although a smaller shift can be done, and, in fact, seems to already be taking place, based on EIA data.

[5] The reason that limits are a concern for natural gas is because the economy is very much more interconnected, and much more dependent on energy, than most people assume.

I think of the economy as being interconnected in much the same way as the many systems within a human being are interconnected. For example, humans have a circulatory system, or perhaps several such circulatory systems, for different fluids; economies have highway systems and road systems, as well as pipeline systems.

Humans require food at regular intervals. They have a digestive system to help them digest this food. The food has to be of the right kinds, not all sweets, for example. The economy needs energy of the right kinds, as well. It has many kinds of devices that use this energy. Intermittent electricity from wind or solar, by itself, doesn’t really work.

Human beings have kinds of alarms that go off to tell if there is something wrong. They feel hungry if they haven’t eaten in a while. They feel thirsty if they need water to drink. They may feel overheated if an infection gives them a fever. An economy has alarms that go off, as well. Prices rise too high for consumers. Or, companies go bankrupt from low market prices for their products. Or, widespread defaults on loans become a problem.

The symptoms we are seeing now with the UK economy relate to a natural gas import system that is showing signs of distress. It is pleasant to think that the central bankers or public officials can fix all problems, but they really cannot, just as we cannot fix all problems with our health.

[6] Inexpensive energy plays an essential role in the economy.

We all know that inexpensive food is far preferable to expensive food in powering our own personal economies. For example, if we need to spend 14 hours producing enough food to live on (either directly by farming, or indirectly by earning wages to buy the food), it is clear that we will not be able to afford much of anything other than food. On the other hand, if we can produce food to live on in 30 minutes a day (directly or indirectly), then we can spend the rest of the day earning money to buy other goods and services. We likely can afford many kinds of goods and services. Thus, a low price for food makes a big difference.

It is the same way with the overall economy. If energy costs are low, the cost of producing food is likely low because the cost of using tractors, fertilizers, weed killers and irrigation is low. From the point of view of any manufacturer using electricity, low price is important in being able to produce goods that are competitive in the global marketplace. From the point of view of a homeowner, a low electricity price is important in order to have enough funds left over after paying the electricity bill to be able to afford other goods and services.

Economists seem to believe that high energy prices can be acceptable, especially if the price of fossil fuels rises because of depletion. This is not true, without adversely affecting how the economy functions. We can understand this problem at our household level; if food prices suddenly rise, the rest of our budget must shrink back.

[7] If energy prices spike, these high prices tend to push the economy into recession.

A key issue with fossil fuels is depletion. The resources that are the least expensive to access and remove tend to be extracted first. In theory, there is a great deal more fossil fuel available, if the price rises high enough. The problem is that there is a balancing act between what the producer needs and what the consumer can afford. If energy prices rise very high, consumers are forced to cut back on their spending, pushing the economy into recession.

High oil prices were a major factor pushing the United States and other major users of oil into the Great Recession of 2007-2009. See my article in Energy, Oil Supply Limits and the Continuing Financial Crisis. In part, high oil prices made debt harder to repay, especially for low income workers with long commutes. It also made countries that used a significant share of oil in their energy mix less competitive in the world market.

The situation being encountered by some natural gas importers is indeed similar. Paying a very high price for imported natural gas is not a very acceptable situation. But not having electricity available or not being able to heat our homes is not very acceptable either.

[8] Conclusion. It is easy to be lulled into complacency by the huge natural gas reserves that seem to be available.

Unfortunately, it is necessary to build all of the infrastructure that is required to extract natural gas resources and deliver them to customers at a price that the customers can truly afford. At the same time, the price needs to be acceptable to the organization building the infrastructure.

Of course, more debt or money created out of thin air doesn’t solve the problem. Resources of many kinds need to be available to build the required infrastructure. At the same time, wages of workers need to be high enough that they can purchase the physical goods they require, including food, clothing, housing and basic transportation.

At this point, the problem with high prices is most noticeable in Europe, with its dependence on natural gas imports. Europe may just be the “canary in the coal mine.” The problem has the potential to spread to other natural gas prices and to other fossil fuel prices, pushing the world economy toward recession.

At a minimum, people planning the use of intermittent electricity from wind or solar should not assume that reasonably priced natural gas will always be available for balancing. One likely area for shortfall will be winter, as well as storing up reserves for winter (the problem affecting Europe now), since winter is when heating needs are the highest and solar resources are the lowest.

About Gail Tverberg

My name is Gail Tverberg. I am an actuary interested in finite world issues - oil depletion, natural gas depletion, water shortages, and climate change. Oil limits look very different from what most expect, with high prices leading to recession, and low prices leading to financial problems for oil producers and for oil exporting countries. We are really dealing with a physics problem that affects many parts of the economy at once, including wages and the financial system. I try to look at the overall problem.
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4,770 Responses to Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?

  1. Ian says:

    The news article linked by Fast Eddy comes from Reuters. It seems to confuse “cases” with “infections”. People in Singapore with some mild illness are turning up at hospitals, fearful that they have the virus.

    It’s important to know the difference between the two. To understand that, it’s necessary to be informed how the PCR tests work.

    I recommend reading all the linked information to be found here, which summarizes the situation quite well I think:

    What is a Ct value?
    Cycle threshold (Ct) is a numerical value generated during a RT-PCR test. It refers to the number of cycles needed for a sample to amplify and cross a threshold (cut-off) to be considered detected/positive.
    Most RT-PCR tests use Ct cutoffs of 35-40 cycles, so any sample with a Ct value below the cutoff, would be considered a true positive.

    In the UK, the NHS is rumored to have used a Ct of 42 or even 45. Doing that generates huge numbers of “false positives”. This may be why the UK is a “world leader”.

    The media ramps up fear levels by choosing to confuse cases and infections. There seems to be no follow-through to see how many “cases” later turned out to be “false positives”.

    Recently, we are being told that the vaxxed are now being tested with a Ct of 28. Everyone should be tested at a threshold of 28.

    In order to travel, I have been tested many times now in three different countries. Each time I ask “what is the Ct?”. The doctors and nurses either claim or they pretend not to know (even what the abbreviation “Ct” means). The Ct used by each lab in each country is private information, not available to the public.

    So I am going to suggest that all these statistics of “cases” and “infections” are worthless. **One cannot even compare one lab test with another, let alone one country with another.**

    • Ian says:

      This was intended as a reply to Fast Eddy’s posting on Sept 28 at 8:01 PM

      • This is a great testimony to how well the vaccines really work. Hopefully OSHA (who is the one in charge of making certain that US workers will be immunized) and some others will get the message.

        • Azure Kingfisher says:

          OSHA’s looking to do their part to maintain the scamdemic:

          “The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) set precedent this summer and published an emergency Covid-19 rule in the Federal Register taking jurisdiction over and providing justification for Covid-19 being a workplace hazard for healthcare employment.

          “Early in September, Biden announced his 100-or-more employee Covid-19 vaccine mandate and tasked OSHA with drafting an enforcement rule to exert emergency vaccine compliance authority over companies with 100 or more employees.

          “The legislative provision that passed the Budget Committee raises the OSHA fines for non-compliance 10 times higher – and up to $700,000 for each ‘willful’ or ‘repeated’ violation. Speaker Nancy Pelosi has not announced when the House will vote on the reconciliation bill that includes the new OSHA fines.

          “If the legislation is enacted, OSHA could levy draconian fines to enforce Biden’s vaccine mandate, a move that could rapidly bankrupt non-compliant companies. The Biden mandate affects employers collectively employing an estimated 80 million workers.

          “In its June 2021 emergency rule affecting health care workers, OSHA complained it was having a hard time motivating employers with its paltry $13,653 fine:

          “‘OSHA has been limited in its ability to impose penalties high enough to motivate the very large employers who are unlikely to be deterred by penalty assessments of tens of thousands of dollars, but whose noncompliance can endanger thousands of workers …'”

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Funny how when a CovIDIOT is shown the record infections in Israel and now Singapore … the most vaxxed countries on the planet …. they fall back is … well they still prevent you from dying…

          As we saw in Israel – the hospitalizations and deaths were climbing then they hosed the population with a booster … flattening that curve… and now they are formulating a second booster…

          What does not occur to a CovIDIOT is… why are boosters required at all — IF the injection stops people from dying? Pop the corks and celebrate.. Covid is now the common cold…

          But CovIDIOTS are MOREONS…. they cannot be cured of this

          Just as people who believe we have been to the moon … and the the US govt was not behind 911… cannot be cured….. they are profoundly … stooopid. They believe… what the MSM tells them to believe

  2. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Mining meltdown: Iron ore price slump sends shockwaves through industry as fall in demand from China catches market by surprise…

    “The price of this vital steel-making ingredient is highly volatile. But the speed and scale of the slump, driven by falling demand for steel from China, has caught the market by surprise.”

    • jodytishmack says:

      I found this information at the bottom of the article interesting.

      “There is another factor at play – the Beijing Winter Olympics.

      Every winter, Chinese authorities introduce steel production restrictions to reduce smog, as excess coal is burnt to heat homes, businesses and factories.

      But with the games due to begin on February 4, President Xi is particularly anxious to avoid the image of the world’s top lugers hurtling down the hillside in a thick soup of smoke.

      This means restrictions on steel production from Beijing are likely to be more drastic, and last for longer. Some analysts believe this could weigh on iron ore demand until well into next year.

      But before investors become too disillusioned, the iron ore’s decline in value has to be put into perspective.

      A price of just shy of $120 a tonne is still high in historical terms – and almost triple the $40 the price five years ago.

      And iron ore remains a staggeringly profitable business. Rio Tinto’s break-even price for mining the commodity is between $17 and $18 dollars a tonne.

      So the recent fall in iron ore prices just means ‘less cream on top’, according to one analyst.”

      If the US passes the infrastructure bill our steel manufacturers could see a big boost in sales and being able to buy much cheaper iron ore could be a significant boost to our economy. This will also impact steel for wind turbines and electric cars. Now if only we can solve the microchip issue.

      • Staggeringly profitable usually equates to “highly taxed.” Governments depend on highly profitable industries to tax. Without tax revenue, governments are in a “heap of trouble.”

    • Low prices on iron ore and other minerals is likely to be a “big deal.” It will lead to recessions in countries that export these minerals and uprising by unhappy citizens regarding lost jobs and low pay.

      It doesn’t help at all that interest rates are soaring now as well. I see that the yield on US treasuries is again a bit above 1.5%.

  3. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The world economy is facing a buildup in stagflationary forces as surging energy prices boost inflation and slow the recovery from the pandemic recession.

    “Oil’s climbed to more than $80 a barrel for the first time in three years… Food prices are also advancing, driven in part by crop failures in Brazil, with a benchmark UN index up 33% over the past 12 months.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Inflation and Supply Shortages Are Waking Up the Bond Bears.

      “Central bankers continue to insist that the recent price pressures that are driving inflation higher will prove temporary. But based on what’s happening to bond yields and in the inflation swaps market, investors are growing less convinced. Something’s got to give.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Is the world hurtling towards a debt bubble burst? …the threat to the global economy from a debt bubble blow out is still a live issue.”

        • jodytishmack says:

          When the Central Banks bailed out the financial industry after the Great Recession most of this QE went into the stock market causing a significant inflation in the value of stock but little or no inflation of real goods and services. The pandemic recovery money, on the other hand, went directly into the pockets of the average American and was spent. I think this is what is impacting the supply chains the most, too many people buying too much stuff all of a sudden.

          All the governments spending and tax cuts after the Great Recession mainly went into the pockets of investors and the wealthy didn’t buy more goods or build more factories they used cheap debt to buy more companies, allowing them to strip the profits. Venture capitalists in particular have been buying up smaller profitable businesses and sucking as much profit as possible, often harming them in the long run. Labor lost out as bonuses, raises, and cost of living adjustments were cut and the rising cost of benefits were passed on to employees.

          I believe this is the main reason why the economy took so long to recover yet the stock market has never been so high.
          The average American lost out on the stimulus from the Great Recession but has gained from the Pandemic stimulus. The economy is struggling to keep up with demand. Labor shortages are driving up wages even faster than if the Federal government had changed the minimum wage. People are demanding better wages and salaries, better working conditions, better benefits and business owners have no choice but to pay. Even in China the young people don’t want to work anymore.

          Now its a question of what exactly will the new economy look like? How expensive will products and services become? Will we have enough energy and resources to feed economic growth? Can we possibly create an economy that runs on renewable energy without fossil energy? And if we continue to burn fossil fuels will climate change make conditions so dire we spend most of our time fighting to survive or recovering from disasters? I wish I could say that I had any confidence in world leaders being able to help us in this transition.

          • These benefits to workers are being reeled back in now. That can’t work well either, can it? There are also an awfully lot of people who are no longer working. How does the economy operate with so many retirees and others without jobs?

            • jodytishmack says:

              Unemployment benefits and moratoriums on evictions and utility shutoffs are ending, yes, but they were needed to keep many people afloat. Now there are jobs available and many of them pay better. If the Dems pass the human infrastructure bill it will increase other benefits to middle income families, such as help with daycare through a child tax credit, free tuition at community colleges, etc. The taxes paid by the very rich are ridiculously lower than they should be. Corporate taxes even worse. Where will a healthy, skilled work force come from if most children live in poverty?
              The real skill in government comes from providing government support when it is needed and withdrawing support when people can support themselves. It isn’t just a matter of borrowing and spending. We need more infrastructure resilience. We need less poverty, especially in our very young and our very old. We don’t need billionaires. We don’t even need millionaires really, at least not over a few million in our estate. We need a society that values skilled, healthy labor; stable communities; and frugal but happy lifestyles.
              If an economy is built on the premise that all growth good, we end up with a cancerous, diseased form of economy.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Remember this

              When you are running low on energy… you don’t waste it on building bridges.

            • The catch is that the billionaires don’t really spend much of their money on commodities, like food and energy. They spend their money on high cost educational items, and on tax avoidance, and in speculating in the stock market. They can only eat three meals a day, and sleep in one bed at a time. They can own a few homes, perhaps, and a few cars, but their spending on commodities is not nearly as much as if the money were divided up among the many poor people. The poor people would spend most of their money on food, transportation and housing, using far more commodities, particularly energy commodities.

              Taxing the rich gives the government some of the dollars it has printed back. But it doesn’t provide the resources needed to actually give food, clothing, housing and transportation to the poor. It is only an illusion that this approach would work. We have already figured out that giving stipends to the many poor people mostly results in inflated costs of commodities and finished goods that they might buy. It doesn’t really result in more of them being produced. This is a big part of our problem.

              You can offer people jobs, but daycare mostly isn’t really available. This is one kind of job that isn’t being filled. This, by itself, is discouraging young mothers from going back to work.

              Around here, the fashion is for schools to have lots of one-week breaks. The theory is that spreading schooling out over nearly the whole year, with one-week breaks, will allow the child to learn more without forgetting over a long summer break. I think another reason for using this school year approach is to discourage people who need child care from moving to the area, because it is very difficult to get child care to cover all of the one-week breaks. The schools are designed for rich families with stay-at-home mothers.

              I think that the economy is basically in the shrinkage mode. All of the requirements put on workers, such as wearing masks and getting vaccinated, make it less and less attractive to work. This is part of what keeps the economy going back to its earlier size.

        • I would agree with the author of the article: It is a question of when the debt bubble bursts. Or, I suppose, alternatively, it is a question of when international trade and the international financial system significantly disappears. The US dollar seems to be rising now, but this can’t really work for very long, it would seem. At some point, the system comes “unglued.”

          • Fast Eddy says:

            I suspect it will hold together until the point where the energy equation fails..

            That moment is approaching.

  4. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Afghanistan’s financial system is about to collapse, lender warns, as the US keeps nearly $10 billion in reserves frozen from the Taliban…

    “Syed Moosa Kaleem Al-Falahi, the chief executive of the Islamic Bank of Afghanistan, told the BBC that Afghanistan’s financial industry was dealing with an “existential crisis.””

  5. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Venezuelan migrants in Chile face fiery anti-immigration protests.

    “On the weekend thousands of local Chileans marched with anti-immigration slogans and set fire to belongings of Venezuelan migrants, tossing clothes and mattresses in bonfires in the street, after a camp was cleared by police on Friday.”

  6. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Gas-Starved Europe Can’t Look West as U.S. Faces Its Own Crunch.

    “… for a multitude of reasons, U.S. shale is in no position to bail out Europe. Indeed, supplies are so tight that Americans are staring down their own supply squeeze — and the accompanying sky-high utility bills.”

  7. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China’s coal shortage could leave other countries in the dust.

    “China is in dire need of more coal, and it’s willing to pay ‘any price’ to secure more of the world’s dirtiest fossil fuel – which means other countries risk literally being left in the coal dust.”

  8. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China Hidden Local Government Debt Is Half of GDP, Goldman Says.

    “China’s hidden local government debt has swelled to more than half the size of the economy, according to economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who said the government will need to be flexible in dealing with this as revenue is already under pressure due to a slowdown in land sales.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Evergrande: Struggling firm to raise $1.5bn as debt payment looms.

      “Chinese property giant Evergrande has said it is selling a $1.5bn (£1.1bn) stake it owns in a commercial bank, as it scrambles to raise money owed to customers, investors and suppliers. The almost 20% stake in state-owned Shengjing Bank is effectively being bought back by the bank.”

  9. Yoshua says:

    The S&P 500 daily chart is broken too. It has now found support at the 100MA.

  10. Yoshua says:

    The 1 week S&P 500 chart is now broken. Will the Fed allow a crash to put pressure on the Congress to pass the $3.5T bill and raise the debt ceiling?

  11. MG says:

    The energy poor Austria witnesses the revival of the communist party:

    Communists win local election in Austria’s second largest city

    “Their success in Graz is down to their focus on local issues — especially housing policy — while scaling back any Marxist ideology.”

    “Weisskircher doesn’t believe there will be any kind of rapid communist expansion into the other Austrian states, given the amount of long-term political legwork that would require. The political scientist does, however, believe that other left-wing groups, particularly the Social Democrats, should engage in some self-reflection in light of the KPÖ’s election success in Graz. What the vote in Graz has ultimately demonstrated is that the “electoral successes of far-right parties are not a law of nature. If left-wing actors fail elsewhere, they also in part have themselves to blame.””

  12. Lastcall says:

    Another thing that occurs to me; at the moment Govts are focussing their attention on the Injection hesitant, believing the injected are on-side.
    But I believe the real diffculty will be when the unaware (uninformed, conformed, deformed) become very aware of the bad situation they have been led into with hacked immune systems now on a payment plan to the corrupt Big Pharma.
    When it becomes apparent that they have been misled and that plenty of alternative voices were suppressed in the process, the Injected will have very little patience for Govt officials, poodle Academics, compliant Doctors and complicit Editors.
    Get some popcorn.

  13. Lastcall says:

    Ok, so global supply lines are stretched and in many cases breaking.
    Whats the supply line security for the Injection; whats its vulnerabilities.
    Its amazing that from a standing start they have coughed up over 5 billion shotz.

    Now if you subscribe to the premise that the Injection is an immune system hack, and that those who have been so ‘altered’ are now on a subscription plan ( you know, throw out your record collection and use Spot it fy) to maintain their immune capabilities with 6 monthly boosters (repairs?), then supply line security becomes an issue.
    Similar in many ways to keeping spent fuel rod pools supplied with coolant.

    What is required to maintain the ‘repair shots’ going?

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      Very good point. Now is not the time to become dependent on complex, experimental medical technology. Self-reliance and resiliency are what we need to cultivate before the machine stops.

  14. Fast Eddy says:

    China power crisis hammers SMEs as firms upend production, workers ‘dozing off’

    Chinese media reported on Tuesday that at least 20 out of 31 provincial jurisdictions have rolled out electricity-rationing measures in recent weeks

    Small and medium-sized enterprises in China were already under pressure from high raw material costs and coronavirus lockdowns

  15. Fast Eddy says:

    European Gas Prices Hit Escape Velocity After Russian Gas Supplies Plunge By 57% Overnight

    ‘Higher fossil fuel prices will spur a faster shift to renewable sources, all else equal, as they become economically competitive in more uses/geographies. But very high oil/gas prices risk a voter backlash against decarbonization policies, which are vital to a cleaner future.’

    Kinda like how getting the Covid Injections are vital to a utopian future… we just have to grin and bear the situation

  16. Fast Eddy says:

    This is too good to be true!!!

    Singapore – Most Vaccinated Country Breaks Covid Infection Record!

    • This is a chart comparing Singapore to some other countries: US, UK, and Japan.

      Singapore is above Japan, but below the US and the UK (highest). I didn’t include the Israel. It used to be the highest. It is now down a bit below the UK.

      • Sam says:

        I’m not arguing the vaccine but isn’t this good news you have a lot more people getting it and the severity of it is way down! I love doomer porn too but this seems like you are playing to the vaccines…

        • Only if you look at the situation narrowly. The vaccinations (and the lockdowns and masks) hurt the natural immune system. The immune system needs to be challenged by a wide range of pathogens to “keep its operating system updated” regarding the new viruses and bacteria coming around. The story that our immune system is not up to this, and that we should hide away, is nonsense. Staying at home, not getting enough vitamin D, is about the worst thing we could do to fight the illness.

          Vaccinations of large numbers at the same time the virus is going around is a formula for getting a lot of worse variants. It is like giving out half-bottles of penicillin for a bacterial infection. The medicine (called a vaccine, here) will kill off the weak, and allow the strong to continue and multiply. In not long, the virus will be a lot worse than it was earlier. It will attack babies and small children.

          Of course, we don’t know what the long-term effects of the vaccine will be. There are more studies than we would like suggesting that having the vaccines may make catching later variants worse. At a minimum, a person taking the vaccines will need to be endlessly revaccinated, with a tendency for cumulative bad effects. This is all happening while the availability of inexpensive treatments for COVID is being suppressed.

          • Xabier says:

            Good summary, Gail.

            The measures couldn’t be better calculated to screw up immune systems. Coincidental?

            I’m enjoying a small victory for sanity here, having encouraged a cashier in the supermarket to throw away her thick black mask: it’s not compulsory, but peer pressure had made her keep it on – a powerful force.

            Of course, tribes used to kill or expel (same thing usually) those who flouted general customs.

            She had developed a persistent cough. Who knows what damage 18 months of that has caused?!

            She reports ‘funny looks’ from customers, who are nearly all stupidly masked, but they can’t say a thing to her.

            I feel as though I have liberated a slave.

            On with the Revolution!

          • Alex says:

            Underdosing antibiotics does not make the bacteria stronger, i.e., more dangerous by themselves. It makes them antibiotic-resistant – by killing the non-resistant ones and letting the resistant live and reproduce.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Oh? Did you miss my post about the UK having 8000 covid hospitalizations now vs 1000 a year ago?

        • Fast Eddy says:

          Vaccines Failing Against Serious Disease, Data From Israel Suggests

          The most damning article about vaccines yet

          Just in case you missed these….

          Of course a logical personal would ask the question: If the vaccines stopped serious illness… then why the need for Boosters?

  17. Rodster says:

    “A global energy crisis spreads, by Chris Martenson

    • The one thing that Chris mentioned that I don’t remember hearing about before is the much higher price for the silicon metal that is the precursor to the semiconductor chips in short supply.

    • Except for calling silicon a metal, didn’t notice much I disagreed with — PLEASE SEE

      • Lidia17 says:

        Silicon metal (symbol Si), in its pure form, is a grey metallically lustrous metalloid element. Metallurgical grade silicon is known as silicon metal because of its lustrous appearance.

        Silicon is used mainly in the manufacture of silanes and silicones, as a “hardener” or alloying element to produce aluminium alloys, and in the manufacture of micro-processors and solar cells.

        Silicon is also used as a secondary smelting additive in the manufacture of photonic devices and in the manufacture of industrial refractories.

        Silicon metal is commonly produced by smelting submerged electric arc furnaces, which is an energy-intensive process. Further processing of the material into different product grades makes it applicable in many industry processes.

    • Minority of One says:

      A very good supplement to Gail’s excellent article.

      I had not realised just how much the price of coal had gone up. Quite phenomenal for a resource going out of fashion. On the other hand, this is always what has occurred in the past. Where the price of gas in particular goes, coal tends to follow.

      My advice to fellow Brits would be buy candles now, and matches, before the rush.

      • Malcopian says:

        Seneca’s cliff, here we come.

        • Kowalainen says:

          In my crystal ball of outcomes I’m seeing rapacious primate princesses “despairing” over the necessity of cranking the pedals going from A to B and chucking oats into the former beef and poultry stuffed cookie hole.

          Ah, my joyous tears of schadenfreude and ‘oh noes’.

          And then it is downhill from there into oblivion.

          Repeat after me:


          It is what it is.

          And I am all smiles.

  18. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    United Airlines vaccine
    United Airlines
    United Airlines announced on Tuesday that over 99% of its US workforce has been vaccinated against COVID-19.

    Of the 67,000 US employees, 593 have refused to comply with the mandate and will begin the separation process.

    United said the policy has benefited recruiting, saying people are applying because of the vaccine requirement.

    See more stories on Insider’s business page.

    United Airlines said on Tuesday almost all of its US employees have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

    More than 99% of the company’s 67,000-strong US workforce chose to get inoculated before the September 27 deadline passed, complying with the airline’s vaccine requirement, according to the airline. This does not include the small number of workers who sought religious or medical accommodation, which United said is less than 3% of the total workforce, who are still going to work.

    As of September 28, 593 employees refused to comply with the policy or did not request an exemption. Those individuals will begin the process of being separated from the company on Tuesday, consistent with the employee’s collective bargaining agreement, according to the carrier.

    According to a company email, employees who do not upload proof of their first dose by the deadline and do not have an approved religious or medical exemption could be separated from the company as early as September 28.

    Shortly after the September 27 deadline was announced, United revealed its accommodation policy, which covers workers who request a religious or medical exemption from getting the shot.

    There is a class action lawsuit against United for ignoring requests for exception.
    All based on Science… especially the religious beliefs…sarcasm
    From business

  19. CTG says:

    I just read a comment from a commenter on an article about the fuel shortage in UK. That commenter was in USA but it is almost the same here in Malaysia. Perhaps it is also applicable to the UK.

    Here, the tanker driver is also responsible for unloading the fuel into the tank underground. It is a task that requires skill, knowledge and training. I know that in Malaysia, the salaries of the tanker drivers are pretty good and they are very well trained in their driving and work.

    Not every truck driver can be a tanker driver. So how does this observation fit into the situation in UK? Anyone in UK can comment?

  20. jodytishmack says:

    So many problems happening at once, with impacts rippling out across the global economy. We teeter on the edge of irreversible change and yet as many here point out, few are paying attention or making connections. Those of us living in the developed world are so accustomed to the luxury of fossil fuels we don’t realize all that it gives us; as long as we pay our utility bills the lights come on, the faucets run, the frig keeps our food cold, the furnace keeps our home warm. As long as we have a job we can afford to drive to the store and for the most part buy the food we want.

    Watching the news this evening there was a story about child labor and the announcer claimed “every child deserves to go to school, to play, to live a childhood.” I wonder when people in the developed nations will finally realize that without the cheap energy from fossil fuels we will all have to do more physical labor. We may think children deserve a carefree life, that we deserve a good paying job with good benefits, that we deserve to be treated with respect….but all of these conditions are human creations. And they are only possible when we have surplus energy, surplus resources. In the absence of surplus we face limits, some catastrophic. Nature doesn’t extend “rights” to any species. We either survive, reproduce, and evolve….or we don’t. We don’t have the luxury of claiming ‘rights’ any longer.

    • I agree. Our rights would be pretty much the same as those of wild animals.

      Without supplemental energy of any kind, we would not be able to cook our food. We would have no clothes. It is doubtful that we could continue as a species, certainly not over a wide area. Our digestive system is not set up to eat all raw food, unless we have a blender to process it first.

      As far as I can see, the reason why humans are humans is because pre-humans were able to find supplemental energy. Burned biomass for cooking was among the earliest. One researcher thought that even before that, some pre-humans had learned how to break open the upper leg bones of dead animals that they had found and drink the marrow out for extra nourishment. But burned biomass still seems to be was very important in the transition to having a big brain and small teeth and gut..

      Now, there is not nearly enough biomass to burn for the nearly 8 billion humans on the earth. That is our predicament.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        In that case… norm and dunc will survive… because Old Goats… can eat just about anything…

    • Very Far Frank says:

      There are two types of people in my estimation: People who think in terms of “Should”, and those who think in terms of “Is”.

      I don’t believe the “Shoulds” will do very well this decade at all. They tend to be zealous and unable to make the association between material reality and possibility.

      “Is” people understand, fundamentally, that close and impartial observation of material conditions leads to pragmatic, successful solutions.

      To be fair, both are buggered, but the “Is” folks at least have a slim chance of survival.

  21. Minority of One says:

    Someone posted an interview with UK-based funeral director John O’Looney here a week or two ago. Here is a follow-up interview with Stew Peters.
    John has seen and cleaned a lot of dead people over the last 18 months and he thinks few of them died from CV19. Also a lot of elderly people were deliberately given an overdose of a drug, Midazolam mentioned here, that kills them. He is not the first to say this. I don’t think John is peak-everything aware, but he is in a unique position to join the CV19 scam dots. Covers many points. Excellent video.

    Stew Peters interviews John O’Loonery (Thurs 23 Sept)

  22. yup

    swam my 1500m today, for a change

    though not, you will be sad to learn, carrying a 100lb weight at the same time

    • Malcopian says:

      Normal and FE jointly win this year’s Nobel Prize for Boasting.

      Normal is very greedy for pension so is determined to go on, and on, and on…

      • Fast Eddy says:

        FE does not boast… he states facts … a god has no need to boast.

        And 1500 horse power is a conservative estimate

      • as eddy says

        he only states facts

        but these are eddyfacts

        the nobel committee is very picky about things like that

        • Malcopian says:

          So how many ashtrays did you fill in your long life, Normal? Enough to get in the Guinness Book of World Records?

          • ah—now ashtray filling was the one sin i never felt inclined to indulge in

            though i fail to see the connection

            no doubt you will enlighten me

            • Malcopian says:

              I thought all your frenetic exercise must be designed to make up for past sins. So you were never tempted, despite all the propaganda back then telling of all the supposed health benefits.

            • when i was about 7…i had one drag of 1 fag end my father had thrown carelessly into the fireplace, the shock was so intense, i never touched another one—ever.

              even at that age i was capable of deciding things for myself, making my own mind up about what was stupid and what wasn’t….not always successfully. i’ll be the first to admit.

              swimming a mile 3 times a week hopefully will delay the final onset of stupid for a bit longer–which is why i do it.—though for all i know it may have already arrived. It certainly doesn’t make up for past sins, but it does help to prolong current ones.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              So what was the turning point? Did you sustain a brain injury? Indulge in too much booze? Or is this just what happens when one turns Old Goat?

            • when that happens, one butts silly humans

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              “It certainly doesn’t make up for past sins, but it does help to prolong current ones”


  23. CTG says:

    An interesting comment in Zerohedge that I have copied in its entirety :

    The Brent spot price is going up and the futures curve is in huge backwardation.*0/futures-prices

    And the backwardation is increasing.

    “‘The oil market is tight, as evidenced by the pronounced backwardation,’ adding that the spread between the front two Brent contracts has widened to $0.80/b.”

    The basis (futures minus spot) is what warehousers get paid to store a commodity. They pay spot and immediately short a futures contract to lock in their gain. Normally it’s positive. If oil was piling up in storage facilities, you’d see the basis positive and going up, not negative and going down. You’d see warehousers back off on spot purchases pushing spot down, not up.

    I call BS on this lack of drivers narrative. They just don’t have the oil.

    • This pattern doesn’t allow oil producers to lock in a high price for later. So, it does nothing to increase future oil production. It actually works against oil production.

  24. Mirror on the wall says:

    Kurdish political groups seem to posture as having a Western ‘liberal democratic’ ideology to get Western support for their geopolitical ambitions – which has not really worked out for them, as when they recently tried to go independent following the fall of IS.

    They are a complex people, distributed in various countries, without one of their own. I do not take the ideological posturing of disempowered political groups as indicative of how the people actually live.

    In practice, Kurds have a high fertility rate, which does not bespeak the adoption of a ‘liberal, feminist’ culture. They seem to less Westernised than surrounding peoples, especially in regions where they predominate. Eg.

    Turkish government statistics show that Kurdish women in Turkey give birth to about four children, more than double the rate for the rest of the Turkish population. The Kurdish population is growing, while the rest of the country has birth rates below replacement level.[100][101] In some Kurdish dominated provinces women give birth to 7.1 children on average.[102] Women in Kurdish dominated provinces of eastern Turkey also have an illiteracy rate about three times higher than men, which correlates with higher birth rates. In Şırnak 66 percent of 15-year-old girls could not read or write.[102]

  25. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    This isn’t a game…you need to get the JAB NOW…Captain Kirk says so…

    Unions representing American and Southwest Airlines pilots say a vaccine mandate could cause a staff shortage and disrupt travel, reports say
    Kate Duffy
    Tue, September 28, 2021, 10:22 AM·3 min read
    Pilots have warned of staff shortages if vaccines become mandatory, Politico first reported.

    Joe Biden has told big businesses they need to mandate vaccines or weekly tests for staff.

    The APA, which represents American Airlines pilots, warned of “mass terminations of unvaccinated pilots,” per Politico.

    See more stories on Insider’s business page.

    Pilots at two major airlines have warned of staff shortages and disruption to holiday travel if vaccines become mandatory for them, according to multiple reports.

    In a letter obtained by both Politico and The Dallas Morning News, the Allied Pilots Association (APA), which represents 14,000 American Airlines pilots, wrote that mandates would force airlines to “either offer unpaid leaves of absence or, worse, implement mass terminations of unvaccinated pilots.”
    ….Ferguson wrote that some pilots worried about possible “career-ending side effects” from the vaccine, and cited stringent FAA medical tests pilots must pass in order to maintain their commercial license, according to the reports.

    From Business

    Sleepy Joe Wake up bro

    • I would expect travel disruptions from the vaccine mandates, too. This is a far more predictable impact than any prevention of illness.

    • Fast Eddy says:

      I suppose they would have heard about the British Air pilots who died after being Injected….

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      All these warnings of staff shortages going around: hospital staff, truck drivers, policemen, fire fighters, pilots. All of this over an injection? Really? That’s the hill our “leaders” have chosen to die on? They’d rather risk the destruction of entire industries than capitulate to the “unvaccinated” hold outs? They must really care about everyone’s health and wellbeing.

  26. Lastcall says:

    The people at the front of the bus realised a while ago that the driver was lost. Now they realise he has lost control; you can feel the moment when the tyres just lost traction .

    This information is slowly filtering down the aisle to those in the middle as they lift their eyes from the screens and uncover their ears from the music. No seatbelts, no airbags, no escape windows. We are all swerving around together and whether we end up in a ditch or run over a cliff this bus is not going to get to techno topia any day son.

  27. Student says:

    It is interesting to see that Chinese Company CIMC buys Maersk Container Industry, which is (if I have understood well) the refeer producer Company belonging to Maersk.
    Refeers are absolutely necessary for the so called cold supply chain (expecially at global level, but not only). Cold supply chain involves the transport of perishable products (food, beverages, medicines etc.).
    So, building construction can die, but cold supply chain can prosper…

  28. Student says:

    If we don’t succeed, Gaia probably will (and many thanks to Australian crows).
    Yes, maybe she will.
    She’ll stop artificial intelligence, automation, drones, autonomously guided vehicles, and the whole things related to that…

    Please see this nice news:

    (Gaia is of course a metaphor)

  29. Alex says:

    “Could we be hitting natural gas limits already?” In Europe, yes, the current limits. But those limits can be expanded, perhaps lasting for decades. Now it is obvious that the Western goal of chopping Russia into formally independent ‘oblasts’ controllable from the outside (a la USSR), whose resources could be devoured by foreigners, has failed. The plan B is to stop waging the lost war and develop normal, bona fide mutual relations.

    • Getting much more natural gas, without fairly high long term fixed rates, seems to me to be only a dream.

      Actually, I think the direction is simplification. Less and less co-operation among groups. The bona fide mutual relations may be on a much smaller group basis, especially if there is less to share.

      • MM says:

        From where would you start to negotiate any long term contract NOW when the seller can gamble on higher returns on the spot market assumably also quite long term?

  30. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    ’30 years of blah blah blah’: Thunberg questions Italy climate talks
    Stephen Jewkes and Giulio Piovaccari
    Tue, September 28, 2021, 2:02 AM

    Greta…MOSR BLAH, BLAH, BLAH…to come little Lady…better get used to it…no solution, just outcomes

    Thirty years of blah, blah, blah,” Thunberg told the opening session of a Youth4Climate event on Tuesday.

    Thousands of young activists have converged on Milan this week with some 400, from about 190 countries, due to engage with policymakers to hammer out proposals for possible solutions.

    “So-called leaders have cherry picked young people to meetings like this to pretend they are listening to us, but they are not listening,” Thunberg said.

    “There is no planet B … Change is not only possible but necessary, but not if we go on like we have until today.”

    The youth activists, who fought to get climate change to the top of the global agenda years after leaders at the 1992 Rio Summit in Brazil pledged to tackle environmental problems, are being challenged to help come up with the solutions ahead of the COP26 United Nations summit in November.

    Their proposals will be vetted by climate and energy ministers gathering at the same venue for their pre-COP26 meeting, and some will find their way to the Glasgow summit.

    The meetings come as soaring energy prices on world markets stoke fears of a popular backlash against climate reform.

    • So, spend the oil we have all converging in Milan. Some will eventually make it to Glascow. It seems like the oil could better be used by UK taxi drivers.

      • Azure Kingfisher says:

        “Thousands of young activists have converged on Milan this week with some 400, from about 190 countries, due to engage with policymakers to hammer out proposals for possible solutions.”

        I hope these devout members of the Clymate Chainge religion rode in on donkeys and wore self-made clothing and shoes like the pilgrims of old.

      • Xabier says:

        I wonder whether provincial parts of the UK are being starved of fuel, but not important hubs, for instance the one I live in?

        Shelves at supermarkets are still mostly well-stocked here, roads in town busy with some traffic jams, taxis everywhere, logistics trucks thundering along on the motorway. No one would sense anything has changed at all…..

        Talking to the manager at the outdoor clothing store, he told me they are now flying in goods from China, as the container situation is impossible. Demand is up as everyone has been camping in Britain instead of going abroad. Just received a consignment of 42,000 butane cartridges for camp stoves , I think they come from Taiwan.

        The Indian owner of the excellent health food shop – a qualified MD- told me that the terror propaganda about Delta Doom in India was simply laughable: where people have been allowed to take ivermectin in ‘home treatment’ packs it has more or less vanished. He believes pollution is an important factor, too.

        One learns a lot chatting without masks on. Which is why they were imposed on us.

        • Charlie says:

          Hello there,
          Could the news media be making the problem bigger in the UK? we have a lot of news here in Spain of empty shelves and fights at gas stations. How do they live there?

          • Xabier says:

            Hard to say what exactly is going on: the media love scare stories, as does the government, but I have observed no problems so far.

            Passing through the market square I did overhear one person refer to someone not being able to get to work due to lack of fuel.

            There’s a petrol station nearby, I’ll make a detour today to see what’s happening there.

        • Fast Eddy says:

          I refer to M Fast’s mask as a ‘muzzle’… she’s not quite sure what to make of that

  31. Herbie R Ficklestein says:

    All going according to CEP…right Fast Eddie?🙄

    At a time when the Midwest is being battered by more severe storms due to climate change, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed a landmark law this month that will transition the state to 100 percent clean energy by 2045, with benchmarks along the way.

    While the effort has largely escaped national media attention, it is especially noteworthy for three reasons: Illinois is the first state in the coal-heavy Midwest to commit to eliminating carbon emissions; the plan received some Republican support; and it includes programs to ensure economic and racial equity.

    “What we’ve now done is made it clear that [fossil fuels] are not in Illinois’s future,” Jack Darin, director of the Illinois chapter of the Sierra Club, told Yahoo News.

    • Perhaps we will be operating society with trees that have been cut down. The question is, “Which kind of renewable energy?”

      • NomadicBeer says:

        I think we should start taking seriously the promises of the politicians.
        No this is not snark.

        Remember that UK said at some point that it will stop using gasoline by 2035? It seems they are doing a dry run now.

        EU said that no more oil cars will be sold by 2030(?)

        If we take these not as empty promises but as admissions of reality – what can we expect next?

        For the UK it’s easy – it will become a collapse state before 2025.
        EU will fall apart by then too – and each individual states might or might not use much oil.

        I think it’s perfectly realistic that Illinois (and most US) will use zero ffs by 2045, simply because they won’t have access to them. Don’t you?

        • MM says:

          We had this discussion about managed or forced transition starting with LTG or the Hirsch report.
          So should we assume someone read it and let “we the people” decide?
          Brings us back to the fundamental question of the present if we should be governed?
          Or as mirror on the wall layed out more down: How should you draw any consequences for your life, when the reality you are presented with is “a bit off the track”.
          We could say: “Well, you seem to follow advertisments, but that is not politics.” (high politics, cough)
          We could also say: “You have Internet: google for: how long will I be able to drive to work with my ICE?”
          Questions over questions. Answers over answers.

          In a a distant memory I recall the saying of a manger of a FF company in hearings about climate change in California:
          “We would not sell the oil, but our customers demand it”

        • Unfortunately, you are right. The transition away from fossil fuels is necessary because they are leaving us, now in the near term. So, what the politicians are telling us about phasing out cars and fossil fuels is true. The big problem is that we don’t really have much of anything to transition to. Intermittent renewables don’t work well at all.

          We have been depending on China for imports, but with its energy problems, we can’t count on this working either.

          • bottom line:

            wages can only be created when one energy form is converted into another.

            when wages are so created, they have no purpose other than to repeat the (conversion) process, until the point is reached when energy runs out.

            which takes us to the wile-e-coyote moment.

            which seems to be where China is right now

            • MM says:

              Marx says, value is derived from manual labor only.
              Also energy conversion for sure but seems to be bit of a lower level..

            • it still applies to manual labour

              a gardener digs his potato patch–plants potatoes–harvests and then eats them, and sells any surplus.
              The surplus allows another form of business to prosper, (the shop, the man with a horse and cart and so on)

              every part of the process is a conversion of one energy form into another

            • Mirror on the wall says:


              > Although the labor theory of value is demonstrably false, it prevailed among classical economists through the midnineteenth century. Adam Smith, for instance, flirted with a labor theory of value in his classic defense of capitalism, The Wealth of Nations (1776), and David Ricardo later systematized it in his Principles of Political Economy (1817), a text studied by generations of free-market economists.

              So the labor theory of value was not unique to Marxism. Marx did attempt, however, to turn the theory against the champions of capitalism, pushing the theory in a direction that most classical economists hesitated to follow.

              …. Although Marx tried to use the labor theory of value against capitalism by stretching it to its limits, he unintentionally demonstrated the weakness of the theory’s logic and underlying assumptions. Marx was correct when he claimed that classical economists failed to adequately explain capitalist profits. But Marx failed as well. By the late nineteenth century, the economics profession rejected the labor theory of value. Mainstream economists now believe that capitalists do not earn profits by exploiting workers (see profits). Instead, they believe, entrepreneurial capitalists earn profits by forgoing current consumption, by taking risks, and by organizing production. [?]

              / Profit = return – wages, I would have thought.

            • difficult to pin down in precise terms, because situations vary so much, but wages are created at the point where one energy form in converted into another.

              this get masked by economic theories, politics..all kinds of extraneous stuff, but there it is, at least as i see it.

              capitalism is i think the manipulation of mass labour to the advantage of the individual –ie the energy conversion of millions of individuals. Bezos is the richest man on the planet because he figured out a way of tapping into the ‘energy conversion’ of everyone else.

              Rockefeller became uber rich by doing the same thing. Only he tapped intp the otherwise ‘free’availability of oil energy. He turned the planet itself into a capital asset, and sold it to everyone else.—and in so doing screwed up the planet

              all the thinking about capitalism in the 19th c was overshadowed by the seeming limitless input of surplus energies–this allowed the workers (in general) to be given the sop of ever increasing wages, which masked the reality of the mess they were being led into

            • postkey says:

              “A barrel of conventional crude oil contains the equivalent of roughly 4.5 years of continuous human labour; or around 11 years at 35 hours per week, 48 weeks of the year.  But the capitalist doesn’t pay for the value of the fuel, merely the cost of extracting it.  For a mere £49 (at pre-pandemic prices) the capitalist purchases £330,000 worth of work (at the current UK median wage).  It is the exploitation of fossil fuels rather than the exploitation of labour which generates the vast majority of the surplus value in an industrial economy. . . .

              As Nicole Foss once put it – if conventional oil was like drinking draught beer from a glass, fracking was the equivalent of sucking the spilled dregs from the carpet.”


            • Kowalainen says:

              “/ Profit = return – wages, I would have thought.”

              And seizing the opportunity with technology and cheap energy as enabler. The labor is by default. We’re a tool making species after all.

              Exploiting workers seem a bit redundant. That is the purpose of non-sentient and non-sapient machine. However, it is cruel and absurd to exploit ANY and ALL sentient and sapient entities.

              The only thing a reasonably working market economy need to concern itself with is finite resource management and population balance.

              The goal is to maximize evolutionary progress on a finite world. The difficult part is to make good choices when the outcome isn’t known a priori.

              Overblown egos serve no role in such a paradigm.

              Clearly the rapacious primate isn’t fit for purpose in the manner which I outlined.

              Just send it!


              (It’s the only way to be sure)

            • your wages theory is correct up to a point

              but i try to take my thinking to a more fundamental level

              the blacksmith has a pile of charcoal and a pile of iron bars, doing ‘nothing’.

              his wages aren’t ‘created’ until the charcoal is burned to form the bars into horseshoes using his muscle input.—ie ‘doing something’


              workers ‘surplus energy’ must be exploited to create ever-growing profits for the producers of raw materials, in other words, those who have been able, in one way or another, to appropriate planetary resources for their own ends.

              Not necessarily condemning that, because it is in obedience to primitive human nature.

              but it must ultimately destroy us, because it means making infinite demands on a finite planet.

              it is contrary to our nature (and ability) to slow down, stop or go into reverse.

              As people have pointed out elsewhere, we need four earths to satisfy the demands of the one we live on.
              but even that is an over-simplification.

              taking that fantasy to extremes, we would have to convert ‘off earth’ materials, into ‘on earth’ goods.

              entropy and the laws of thermodynamics would then ultimately deliver us into an ever-deepening rubbish pile.

          • Artleads says:

            We have to live with less, and that less has to be appealing. That’s where the artist/designer/planner/”advertiser” has a role. I’m rather weak on the advertiser part.

    • Fast Eddy says:


  32. Student says:

    The show must go on…
    Very nice post from Dr. Zangrillo of the most famous Dr. in of one of the most important hospitals in Milan (Italy). Milan is an area where more than 2 millions people live.
    Dr. Zangrillo says that among 1.151 people hospitalized in his Hospital in a week, only were 7 for Covid.
    That is only 1 person a week ….. ‘but the show must go on….’

    Hope you can see it here:

  33. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Why global food prices are higher today than for most of modern history… Global food prices shot up nearly 33% in September 2021 compared with the same period the year before…

    “Based on real prices, it is currently harder to buy food on the international market than in almost every other year since UN record keeping began in 1961.

    “The only exceptions are 1974 and 1975. Those food price peaks occurred following the oil price spike of 1973, which drove rapid inflation in many parts of the global economy, including the production and distribution of food.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Rising food prices could ignite unrest, instability in Nigeria, other African countries…

      “The pain could be particularly acute in Africa, where purchasing power and social safety nets are limited, and discontent with underperforming governments is simmering. Current conditions – supply chain disruptions, climatic shocks, rapid spikes in commodity prices and lockdowns – have created fertile ground for unrest.”

      • Harry McGibbs says:

        “Soaring fertiliser prices likely to weigh on agricultural output… Fertiliser prices will remain elevated over the next few quarters due to the surge in the price of natural gas and coal, their main inputs with a knock-on impact on crop yield as farmers cut back on fertiliser use.

        “High prices will pose a downside risk on fertiliser demand and weigh on both agriculture yields and production for all crops, particularly corn in the US.”

        • People don’t understand all of these supply chains and how important low price is to them.

          • Rodster says:

            And those at the top who created these shortages, on purpose don’t understand that rising prices is what got the ball rolling when it later became known as the Arab Spring.

        • jodytishmack says:

          “Natural gas accounts for 80 to 90% of the cost of ammonia fertilizer.” As natural gas prices rise, so will nitrogen costs. This will effect corn the most, since it uses high inputs of nitrogen. 30% of corn grown in the US is used to make ethanol, which the government insists must be added to gasoline (because it’s renewable). So, I expect we’ll see corn planted decrease next year and gasoline prices rise as well. Once gasoline + ethanol prices are high enough corn prices will rise and farmers will plant more corn. Difficult to know if natural gas prices will do.

      • Overthrown governments may be the next problem in many parts of the world.

        • Rodster says:

          Civil unrest is certainly on the rise around the world. Hell, Nancy Pelosi had the wall in Wash DC put back up. Those in power do sense that a level of anger is on the rise. That may blow its top if the Gov’t goes thru with its plan to force vaccinations of companies with more than 100 employees. If people refuse vaccination and lose their livelihood to support their families that could be the straw that breaks the camels back.

          A former coworker told me recently that he is taking early retirement and that the Social Security office told him they have seen a HUGE rise in people filing for early retirement.

          How is the Gov’t going to function when most small businesses are no longer in business and not enough tax revenue is coming in to pay for Gov’t pensions?

          • It is too bad governments can’t print resources. They can print more money, inflating the price of everything, but they can’t provide all of the resources needed to feed everyone.

            If jobs seem too unattractive (wear masks in the office, get the vaccine, difficult childcare situation), people won’t work. They will quit at stay at home, or find a job where they can work from home. Without enough workers, it is hard to make as many goods and services.

            • Harry McGibbs says:

              “New York pleads with unvaccinated health workers as mandate looms. State’s requirement has led to fears of shortages if workers are sacked instead of getting the jab.

              “New York governor Kathy Hochul… was set to sign an executive order on Monday that would give her emergency powers to call up the National Guard, while also recruiting retirees, out-of-state staff and foreign workers to help fill any gaps.”


            • Azure Kingfisher says:

              This is why governments should let the COVID-19 nonsense go.

              “The beatings will continue until morale improves” doesn’t actually work.

              From, “30 facts you NEED to know: Your Covid Cribsheet”:

              1. The survival rate of “Covid” is over 99%.

              2. There has been NO unusual excess mortality.

              3. “Covid death” counts are artificially inflated.

              4. The vast majority of covid deaths have serious comorbidities.

              5. Average age of “Covid death” is greater than the average life expectancy.

              6. Covid mortality exactly mirrors the natural mortality curve.

              7. There has been a massive increase in the use of “unlawful” DNRs.

              8. Lockdowns do not prevent the spread of disease.

              9. Lockdowns kill people.

              10. Hospitals were never unusually over-burdened.


    • These total sales 70-90% off “everything must go” (~Q3/2020 – Q2/2021) from closed down (lockdown) restaurant-hotel industries are already sold (hence warehouses empty), now the humanoids want to eat again, pesky bunch..

    • An average increase of 33% in food prices is huge. Of course, the UN Food Index mostly is an index of imported food. It is possible that locally grown food has increased less. Also, this is the cost of the food, not the cost of making cornflakes from corn, and putting it in a big box. So the price rise may not be as high in supermarkets in rich countries. Poor people living on imported food will be especially affected.

      • Herbie Ficklestein says:

        Fires burn on a farm near environmentally protected land in Sao Paulo state on Aug. 24.

        Photographer: Jonne Roriz/Bloomberg
        The Country That Makes Breakfast for the World Is Plagued by Fire, Frost and Drought
        Brazil’s crops have been scorched, frozen and then dried out by the worst drought in a century, upending global commodity markets.

        By , , and
        September 28, 2021, 12:01 AM EDT
        No country on Earth puts more breakfasts on kitchen tables than Brazil.

        The farms that dot the vast plains and highlands that rise above the Atlantic coast produce four-fifths of the world’s orange juice exports, half of its sugar exports, a third of coffee exports and a third of the soy and corn used to feed egg-laying hens and other livestock.

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “Pakistan’s rupee ended at a historic low against the US dollar in the inter-bank market, closing at 169.6 on Monday to surpass the level it registered just earlier this month.”

    • According to the article,

      “The shortfall means the nation will “definitely” suffer power outages over the winter, Iqbal Z. Ahmed, the chairman of Pakistan GasPort, which owns and operates one of the nation’s import terminals, said in an interview. “It will hit exports, industry and general morale more than anything else. Electricity is not a luxury.””

  34. Student says:

    As far as I can see, this is the only Italian information website talking about the current Chinese energy problems and devastating global consequences, so I wanted to let you know:

    I hope many persons in Italy will connect the dots with Green Pass and permissions…

  35. MM says:

    It is damn obvious that what we see matches perfectly with the catabolic collapse scenario by JMG (Hat tip!)
    The amounts being pumped out of the ground are really very high at the moment so I do not yet see a very difficult situation in the longer term. What we see of course is that energy intense industry has to be cut off due to either price too high or supply too low.
    Gail mentioned that the supply & demand model does not apply in the energy markets. All economists (besides the unwashed) refuted this as pure BS.
    Ok, they may bend their minds now to explain to us whatever else is the reason for the current situation. Just a month ago I posted here that in theory when the boundary of the S&D model would be approached, the prices will go through the roof because that is how “the markets” work.
    Anyways, the problem is that with high prices to pay for a construction site of a new power plant or an oil rig, the return on capital invested is quite difficult to reach. We are not talking about the long delays for building such projects here. Pumping in money by the government or slashing tax requirements might remedy the problem in the short run and could in theory flatten the curve.
    Actually with a situation like this before winter and already seeing that the problem can only get worse, I wonder how long the picture can be kept together.

    • All (most) of the msm will blame (already doing) this energy surplus mismatch (bouncing head under the firm ceiling) just on the temporary “V-shaped” recovery which resulted from lockdowns + gov stimulus combo (aka additional disposable purchasing power). In a way temporary or recently acquired problem, move along, nothing fundamental to see here..

    • Thanks for your insights. Yes, the amounts being pumped out of the ground for oil, coal and natural gas are still quite high. We have a less good idea of what these amounts actually are than we have had in the past because countries are less honest in their reporting of their information. Also, US oil is production is down because of long term low oil prices for shale. This affects natural gas as well.

      You are right. The problem can only get worse before winter. It could affect many countries, in many different ways. We will see.

      • MM says:

        This is a very important aspect that “we” have to keep in mind with all “news” that we encounter “now”.
        If you remember the chinese videos of people laying on the street due to C9/11, were you able to check it?
        What about the numbers of C9/11 deaths in china that suddenly stayed flat. What about the “large swimming pool party in china”? Do you really know what happened there? It might even be possible the chinese government put all the people in quarantaine afterwards or even worse. Do you know that?
        What about pouring rain in China? What about the chinese pork industry? What about people having lost money from Evergrande or not getting it out ?
        Do you know, what is currently going on in Congo or Yemen or Nigeria or Cuba?
        People look at the stock market like the rabbit at the snake and everybody says: WTF? I have long since said that the “market” has no longer any “signal” to offer.

        Thank you Gail that you as an actuary are able to spot things in input/output data as “presented by whomever”.

        I realise that a lot of people are starting to have a WTF moment.
        You can no longer draw any conclusive picture of what is “really” going on in the world.

        I must admit that “the world” is a bit farer away from me personally but I (assume) I am lucky due to OFW sailing hard on the wind of change.

        Am I?

  36. Harry McGibbs says:

    “Oil price tops $80 a barrel adding to pressure on consumers – as UK economy enters ‘hard yards’

    “The market for Brent crude slumped last year as lockdowns crushed global economic activity but it is now bouncing back adding to inflationary pressures just as the recovery slows.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “U.K. Fuel Panic Deepens the Pain in Crisis-Prone Economy.

      “Major U.K. industries from food processing to utilities were already reeling from the effects of Brexit, a supply-chain crisis and record surge in energy prices. The sudden disruption to road-fuel supplies threatens to spread that pain even deeper into the economy, leaving small businesses, care workers and taxi drivers unable to do their jobs.”

    • I see US stock market seems to be at least somewhat headed down today. Dow about -240 points. Maybe a little of the news is starting to get to the US, too.

      • jodytishmack says:

        We never really know what causes our stock market to fluctuate but I suspect it has more to do with the Senate Republicans blocking actions to raise the debt ceiling or pass any bills right now.
        Anecdotally, I asked a few people if they were aware of rising natural gas prices expected this winter or energy issues in UK, China, or spreading to Europe. They had no idea. I’ve seen a few news coverage of the lines for petrol in UK supposedly due to a lack of lorry drivers. Shrug…nothing to worry about here.
        When I posted a comment on another blog telling people that we were likely to see an energy crisis this winter I was told I’m a doomsayer. Shrug!

    • Rodster says:

      Gotta love the blowback. That’s just the beginning. This will turn real ugly and violent because people are beginning to figure things out.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        A few well placed sniper bullets from the police… would end that rather quickly me thinks….

        I’d be interested to see the Think Tanks psych report on what they expect from the refusers as the end game approaches…

        They will know what they are going to do — long before they do it — and they will know what sort of response … will convince the refusers… that resistance is futile…

        Beat the dog… until the dog has not bark nor bite in him….

        Operation ‘Beat the Dog’?

        • Rodster says:

          Sure they could go that route and start killing their own people. It’s happened before.

          History has taught us that never works out very well. That usually leads to no confidence in the government which leads to more protest, riots, violence and government overthrows.

        • Tim Groves says:

          I believe they have a history of hunting down and exterminating “subhumans” in Tasmania.

  37. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China tightens abortion controls as population crisis looms.

    “China is tightening controls over abortions for “non-medical purposes” as policymakers heap pressure on women in their battle to counter a demographic crisis.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China steps up anti-corruption drive as Evergrande crisis puts spotlight on financial risk

      “The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection will carry out ‘deep-level’ anti-corruption investigations to ‘prevent systemic financial risk’.”

      • For several years, it seems like “anti-corruption” has played almost as big a part in China’s central control as “preventing climate change.” There needs to be some excuse for its actions. Also, if there is huge wage disparity, “buying influence” gets to be a bigger and bigger issue.

    • MM says:

      How long did it take the chinese government to learn that a bad decision does not work out well. Ok, maybe the remedy is just another great plan by the government. Sure.
      Does that only apply to the chinese government? Does that apply to people accepting to be governed?

      So much for the power of people having grandiose plans…

      • Xabier says:

        The problem is that grandiose plans, devised by narcissistic psychopaths, can have a huge impact and work, to all appearances, for a while.

        And in that short time, comparatively, they kill you……

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It is probably fair to say that China is an interesting exception to the usual ‘deontological’ (morality based on set rules) approach of states, and that it takes the ‘consequentialist’ approach, and looks at the social consequences of policies. Thus it can adapt laws to the needs to society.

      The ‘modern’ West has a dogmatic approach of individual ‘rights’. However those ‘rights’ are liable to change. Abortion was legalised in 1968 in UK. Gender rights are the latest thing. The emphasis tends to be on the individual and ‘choice’ but not exclusively – eg. dr/g laws, late term abortion.

      Any approach is liable to be a matter of pros and cons. China may have avoided the demographic ‘distortion’ of its population that is sometimes attributed to industrialisation whereby the lower classes outbreed the others. And yet it may now struggle to support an ageing population – as may the West.

      I would not hold that there is any dogmatic ‘truth’ to abortion either way. Neither would I hold ‘consequentialism’ to be dogmatically ‘true’. Societies potentially take their own approach and live with the consequences.

      It is not an ‘ideal’ world, otherwise ‘rights’ would always lead to good consequences, and good consequences would always go together. Consequentialism probably does optimise good consequences, but it depends on what a society considers to be ‘good consequences’ – eg. what about ‘rights’ and their habitual ‘violation’. Whatever!

      • The more energy per capita, the more “rights” a person can have. Women can’t have very many rights in a society with only a tiny amount of supplemental energy. They need to take care of home and family. The muscle power of men is needed to produce what necessities can be produced for living. There might be a few exceptions among the very rich, such as “Lydia the seller of purple cloth,” but for the most part, a woman’s value comes primarily from having children and raising them.

        If we go back to renewable energy only, I expect the shift will have to be in this direction.

        • democracy is only available to those who can afford it—simple as that

        • Xabier says:

          Although women living in much the same way, economically and in terms of the level of energy consumption, can have very different rights and freedoms.

          For instance the contrast between Arab and Kurdish women. Or Basque women and those of Southern Spain.

          One can be too deterministic. Local culture makes all the difference.

          Just as a tribe in one valley might have completely different morals and customs from their neighbours.

          • Artleads says:


            From my vantage point at the core there seems to be little option for getting that far away from IC for this to happen. We still have IC, where women still are seen as gaining rights. I’m not seeing where you flick a switch and women all go back to the kitchen and serve as baby mills. Many varied things can happen instead. For one thing, where is the universal mandate for population to remain at this size or to grow? Aren’t there such things as CEP hovering in the wings? Many women might prefer death to returning to the kitchen.

          • info says:


            “For instance the contrast between Arab and Kurdish women. Or Basque women and those of Southern Spain.”

            True. But in the long term the aforementioned sex roles and advanced civilization is inseparable and it seems the laws of nature itself favors such arrangements at least among humans.

        • jodytishmack says:

          Men or women who learn to read and write, who have access to ideas, to thinkers and philosophers, develop a wider view of the world. If we educate girls they are likely to have fewer children and help their children, family, and community do better.
          It’s been my experience that boys who are raised with more sisters than brothers learn to be more respectful and comfortable around women.

      • Kowalainen says:

        “Societies potentially take their own approach and live with the consequences.”

        Within temptation is truth. Small lies eventually become large. Small unfair advantages eventually grow large.

        Thus stagnation is imminent. Mother Earth does not particularly “like” stagnation and regression as it is in contradiction with evolutionary process and progress.

        All measure should be mapped onto evolutionary gradient. The complexity generation must accelerate at any price. Everything is secondary to this objective and doctrine.

        If we are fundamentally incapable of producing technological progress without warring and fail to understand the consequences of poor resource management (depletion and pollution) and population management (overpopulation and corruption). Then warring unfortunately it is, like it or not. Now, repeat after me.




        And then the seven stages of grief materializes by default. You see, you’re not to choose what kind of universe and planet this is. But don’t get me wrong.



    • Mirror on the wall says:

      And of course, if the Western model of individual ‘rights’, expressive as it is of individual bourgeois ‘rights’ to possess and to expand capital, is viewed at a systemic level, then it leads to global collapse. It is all very well having ‘set rules’ and ‘rights’ but that does not negate consequences. ‘Deontological’ ethics have their consequences.

      Bourgeois ‘rights’ may have a lot going for them, but if the worldview ultimately and completely takes down civilisation, or trashes the planet, then that is always going to lead to ‘chest beating’ about the whole approach.

      We live in an age of pretty extreme consequences. Certainly the approach of states now is to at least posture about limiting bourgeois ‘rights’, eg. with ‘carbon limits’. It is no longer all about the individual, it is also about social and environmental consequences.

      Arguably, in practice, Western liberalism is simply of its time as a bourgeois modus operandi, and it has proved unsustainable. As soon as a person talks about ‘sustainability’, they are in the realms of consequentialism. So, it could be said that we are in a time in which bourgeois ‘rights’ are severely exposed to consequentialist critique.

      ‘Our values’ are of their time, and they have brought about the conditions of their own, urgent critique.

      Going forward, it does seem that consequentialism is growing as a ‘moral’ force. And if bourgeois ‘rights’ are reflective of a functional bourgeois economic base, then they probably will not be the norm in the future, post-collapse. Whether societies will look for a new set of ‘deontological’ rules or go for an outright, fluid consequentialism remains to be seen.

      I doubt that ‘consequentialism’ is the norm in history, as historical development tends to be slower and less dynamic than it is now. Social morality is liable to adapt to situations that are seen as more durable. It can be adapted without being consciously dynamically consequentialist.

      ‘Deontological’ feudalism was sustainable for longer, but it eventually provided the economic development that made capitalism possible. Consequentialism probably is the most ‘rational’ approach but it may not be congruent with most historical material conditions – humans are not necessarily liable to have access to a holistic, historical perspective.

      It is tempting to say that historical development is essentially chaotic, and that one ‘order’ flows into another in a fairly chaotic way. It is perhaps doubtful that will ever not be the case. Indeed, we may now be entering a more consequentialist period in a ‘chaotic’ way, due to the consequences of bourgeois ‘rights’. That conscious consequentialism may well be temporary.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      It may be that the West does whatever it does, and that the CCP survives as a consciously consequentialist state while the policies of the party adapt to whatever comes after global, bourgeois economic expansion.

      CCP might survive as akin to the ‘philosopher state’ as it has an explicit Marxist ideology that emphasises ‘ideology from the facts, not facts from ideology’. It is consciously relativist and consequentialist.

      Maybe the ideological ‘chaos’ of history ends, in China at least, with the durable and dynamic ‘consequentialism’ of the CCP.

      I can only say ‘good luck’ to all societies, whatever they choose/ manage to do. I am fairly sure that it is not my role to ‘dictate’ to all societies that they ‘ought’ to have ‘my values’.

      The West is big on dictating ‘values’ these days, as a geopolitical weapon, even as its own bourgeois values succumb to urgent energetic and environmental critique in the West.

      Personally I do not feel the need to function as a Western geopolitical ‘tool’ that weaponizes (tottering) bourgeois ‘values’. They have a lot going for them, but they are likely of their time and of limited usefulness going forward.

      I am not dogmatic. It may have seemed ‘progressive’ to some people to geopolitically weaponize bourgeois value some decades ago, as it led to ‘improved’ material and social conditions around the world – but look at what came of that, a global energetic and environmental crisis.

      So I probably do incline toward a fluid adaptation to changing circumstances – which is not to say that humans are going to plot a wise course forward if they take that approach.

      But I would say that consequentialism is perhaps more congruent with the ‘rationalist, enlightenment’ project, which likely got bogged down in dogmatic bourgeois ‘liberalism’ for a time.

      Not that I suppose that my own inclination toward consequentialism is liable to be consequential – societies do not work that way, they have their own ideological momentum.

    • Mirror on the wall says:

      I was listening to this techno release if anyone wants to check it out. It must be fairly unobjectionable as I became quite unconscious of it on the headphones while I was thinking/ typing. A good background for reading, chilling?

      Wa Wu We – 108 Dimensions of Green

    • China has used abortions for selection of the preferred sex of infants. Perhaps more children will be born, it this use of abortions is stopped. Also, for parents who are simply saying, “Oops, not now.” Or, “We can’t really afford a child now.”

    • Rodster says:

      I love how the cop spraying the protestor in the third pic has his mask down. Different rules for different people.

  38. Harry McGibbs says:

    “China electricity shortage: industrial production grinds to halt and traffic lights fail amid rationing.

    “Half of China’s provincial jurisdictions mandate rationing of electricity, but poor communication and unclear timeline leave angry public in the dark. One local government warns that entire power grid at risk of collapse if electricity is not rationed.”

    • Harry McGibbs says:

      “China energy crunch triggers alarm, pleas for more coal.

      “As a severe power crunch roils China’s northeastern industrial heartland, senior officials face mounting pressure from alarmed citizens to ramp up coal imports thick and fast in order to keep lights on, factories open and even water supplies flowing.”

    • This would be a major problem: “entire power grid at risk of collapse if electricity is not rationed”.

      China is in worse shape than we have been told. Fall is a time where heating is pretty much unnecessary. If there are problems now, there will no doubt be more problems later.

      Besides traffic lights, I can imaging all of the elevators in high rise buildings are a nightmare. So are machines used by banks to allow customers to withdraw and deposit funds.

      A lot of transportation in China is electric as well. Electric buses, electric trains, and electric cars, all because China was believed to have lots of coal, relative to oil. It really doesn’t have enough of any kind of fossil fuel.

      • Minority of One says:

        Don’t mobiles require a working grid to get a signal? Not that that would bother me, don’t have one.

        • My understanding is that in the US, there is lots of battery backup at the cell tower level. Even if the electricity goes down, cell phones keep working. I expect that the batteries are rechargeable, so that the cell phones would work as long as there was some “up” time for the batteries to recharge.

  39. Harry McGibbs says:

    “The IMF has an identity crisis. Its traditional role as lender of last resort has been usurped by the central banks that have pumped trillions into financial markets. Two of its biggest shareholders — the US and China — are at loggerheads. And the fund’s reputation for scrupulous data is jeopardised by a scandal that has engulfed its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, from when she previously headed the World Bank…

    “Into the middle of this identity crisis has now landed a scandal that threatens to destroy one of the fund’s most valuable remaining assets: credibility. According to an independent probe, while World Bank CEO, Georgieva allegedly directed efforts to artificially boost China’s ranking in the lender’s influential annual Doing Business report. Worse, she was seeking to raise capital for the bank from China and others at the time.”

    • This all gets ridiculous. Who do you trust, if not the IMF? She is still CEO at the World Bank, as far as I know.

      And, I have been saying that BP data doesn’t look quite right either with too many exports compared to reported imports. The errors seem to be in China’s coal, Australia’s coal, and US natural gas. In a sense, the reports cannot exactly be checked against each other, because there are “inventory adjustments” that occur, so simple checks are not available. Perhaps these are honest mistakes, with workers working from home. The mistakes seem to make all of these countries “look better” in the reports than actually seems to be the case.

  40. Fast Eddy says:

    In CBC’s Morning Brief, yesterday, they reported:

    In Hamilton, Ont., The Hearty Hooligan, a vegan restaurant, warned customers last week through its Instagram account about provincial vaccine certificate requirements that began Wednesday.

    Head chef Matthew Miles said they’ve faced an onslaught of angry comments from people accusing them of everything from discrimination to supporting tyranny.

    Having followed a vegan diet for many years now, I thought I’d give The Hearty Hooligan a call. I was confused. After all, the vegan diet is about abstinence from animal products (for moral or health reasons) yet…

    The COVID-19 vaccine is derived from human heart tissue, which while not from an animal, is certainly not vegan. And considering the tissue may have been extracted from the dying heart of an aborted fetus, means it hardly falls into the non-violent category.

    If you won’t hurt a fish, why would you hurt a three-month old human fetus?

    Now what about health? The vaccine itself is certainly not healthy. The CDC currently reports nearly 15,000 deaths from this experimental mRNA injection and over 15,000 life-theatening conditions. And we know the CDC undercounts.

    So, why would a vegan restaurant require vegan customers to be injected with a pharmaceutical drug derived from the heart tissue of an aborted fetus? I didn’t understand. So I decided to call them and ask.

    You can listen to my phone call here.

    • Student says:

      The phone call is wonderful, thank you.
      Second person reminds me something like this:
      and it was even an old adverstising of the government of many years ago…

    • Zach says:

      LOL at the phone call.

      What a bunch of clowns.

    • Azure Kingfisher says:

      The manager on the call sounded afraid. Everyone’s just following orders. No one wants any trouble. The vegan hypocrisy reminds me of how the faith and authority of churches were tested during the scamdemic – many of them closed their doors. Faith in government and faith in “The Science” won out in spite of church doctrine.

      Now we have the pope and other Catholic leaders making public service announcements encouraging the injections.

      • Fast Eddy says:

        I thought she sounded like a typical hyped up CovIDIOT…. I suspect she’s got a vaxxie up on her social media pages and believes Rejecters are terrorists

  41. Harry McGibbs says:

    “European Energy Prices Surge to Records as Supply Crisis Spreads. European energy markets from natural gas to carbon permits jumped to records early on Tuesday as the shortage of supplies will only get worse just as the winter season starts.

    “Stocks of everything from natural gas to coal and Norwegian water for electricity production are dwindling…”

  42. Fast Eddy says:

    NSW threatens ‘jail time’ for unvaccinated people entering businesses without passport

  43. Fast Eddy says:

    Who wants to see what STOOOPID looks like?

    A 39-year-old woman from Ogden, Utah, died Feb. 5, four days after receiving a second dose of Moderna’s COVID vaccine, according to CBS affiliate KUTV.

    Kassidi Kurill died of organ failure after her liver, heart and kidneys shut down. She had no known medical issues or pre-existing conditions, family members said.

    Have a peak:×417.jpg

    • Duncan Idaho says:

      “Children’s Health Defense is an American activist group mainly known for anti-vaccine activities and has been identified as one of the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.”

      • Xabier says:

        Ooh, ‘misinformation’, how shocking!

        Duncan, would you have burnt ‘degenerate Jewish art’ in 1930’s Germany, because the Fuhrer said it was bad?

        You seem the type.

        Now run along and get your booster, there’s a good fellow. It’s just for you, a modern scientific miracle!

      • Fast Eddy says:

        Do you mind pulling up some fact checking articles as well … maybe a Wikipedia article on RFK?

        And you firmly believe you are a deep thinker… right?

        You are lemming … in a community of 8B lemmings…

        • fact checking eddy?

          has your valet checked the contents of your wardrobe lately? Or the financial situation of your tailor?–though like all con artists he’s probably doing quite well with you as his best customer.

          endless parades of superior knowledge of whatever form of contention is in hand, your only (barstool) audience required to be held in thrall by ‘facts’ delivered by mentally disturbed clickbait merchants offering no substance, meriting only sympathy from people who really do know what they are talking about.

          But they are held up as ‘truthgivers’—and must be ‘respected’ as such


          because eddy says so—and we mortals must stand in awe at dissemination of it—whenever it is given. No matter how daft.

          eddy saying so is sufficient–and he must proceed with his response ration of 2.75 to 1—inexorably heading to 1 : 1 parity.

          After which he will be talking to himself

          which must result in overall benefit to society at large.

            • postkey says:

              So which ‘unmanned probe’ left the reflector in Mare Tranquillitatis?

            • Fast Eddy says:

              If you were to watch American Moon you would have your answer (for the 100th time…)

            • difficult to accept my oft-repeated rule of never opening eddytubes

              they insult the intellectual level of the recipient, and reveal the same about the sender (which I already know of course)

              as a case in point, attached is absolute proof that the earth is flat

            • Fast Eddy says:

              All bow down to the Great Moreon…

              The Moreon has spoketh…

              Now pelt the MOReon King with rotten eggs

            • sorry eddy

              the pillory is booked weeks in advance at times like this.

            • spoketh should be spoken

              just thought it might be worth mentioneth for future refereth

            • Tim Groves says:

              Norman, you are engaging in logical fallacy there—in this case the tu quoque fallacy.
              Rather than coming up with a valid counter-argument, those using the tu quoque fallacy invalidate their opponent’s criticisms by addressing them with another criticism. With this kind of argument, you find a way to attack your opponent instead of coming up with a logical reason to argue against their original claim..

              I can understand the temptation, as it is extremely difficult to debunk “American Moon” and very easy to fling out the “flat earth” comparison. But logical fallacy is logical fallacy, and it does your intellectual reputation no credit whatsoever to sink to that level.

            • Let’s talk about something else besides the moon landing.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Yes the fake moon landing is boring … norm please top bringing this up.

              Let’s talk about the fake covid stuff!

            • Fast Eddy says:

              Maybe norm could contact those debunkers featured in American Moon and explain to them what they need to do to re-debunk the documentary….

            • on numerous occasions ive tried to follow Gail’s suggestion that we drop the moon nonsense.

              but each time your dearth of any other subject of barstool oratory forces you to regurgitate it again. That is a revealed weakness that you cannot prop up or repair.

              AS we did up to around 2015/16, i would prefer to examine matters that are not the subject of fantasy, and instead the reality we all face.

            • Fast Eddy says:

              I agree… the moon landings are a fantasy and have been debunked in American Moon..

              Why people continue to raise this topic is beyond me

            • check the time delay circuit between your brain and typing finger eddy

              only you and your wardrobe assistants bring it up—no one else keeps resuscitating the subject

            • Mirror on the wall says:

              Anyone who has been married must be familiar with that one. LOL

              > Latin Tū quoque, for “you also”, is an informal fallacy that intends to discredit the opponent’s argument by attacking the opponent’s own personal behavior and actions as being inconsistent with their argument, therefore hypocrisy.

            • postkey says:

              No answer was the strange reply.
              So which ‘unmanned probe’ left the reflector in Mare Tranquillitatis?

            • Kowalainen says:

              With the TDS comedy as a distant memory, we obviously need to find a new avenue for conflict between the Rascals and Normals.

              A bit of comedy and drama never hurts. I wish I was a fly on the wall observing the laughter and oh noes going on behind the keyboards.

              Can we get back ‘orange man bad’ on the throne? I’m bored with the senile actor and so are you. Yes, in ‘you’ includes the Normals, such as the narrative peddler sanctimonious hypocrites.

              Everybody misses the comedy and drama. Don’t lie to yourself. You know I’m right.


          • Xabier says:


            The ‘mentally disturbed’ people these days are in No 10, Big Pharma, the BBC, the universities and the regulators.

            Very reputable scientists and doctors have been driven by censorship to what people like you deem to be the loony margins of the internet.

            Their warnings about the ‘vaccines’ have all been vindicated by the indisputable toll of deaths and injuries.

            Looking forward to having a part for your great-grandchildren, when they too get injected by these bastards?

      • Jarle says:

        “the main sources of misinformation on vaccines.”

        According to who?

Comments are closed.