There is more to the fossil fuel energy predicament than we usually hear about.
Strangely enough, a big part of the confusion regarding the nature of our energy problem comes from the fact that virtually everyone wants to hear good news, even when the news isn’t very good. We end up seeing information in the Mainstream Media mostly from the perspective of what people want to hear, rather than from the perspective of what the story really is. In this post, I explain why this situation tends to occur. I also explain why our current energy situation is starting to look more and more like an energy shortage situation that could lead to economic collapse.
This post is a write-up of a presentation I gave recently. A PDF of my talk can be found at this link. An mp4 video of my talk can be found at this link: Gail Tverberg’s Nov. 9 presentation–Our Fossil Fuel Energy Predicament.
Most people attending my talk reported that they had mostly heard about the issue on the right end of Slide 2: the problem of using too much fossil fuel and related climate change.
I think the real issue is the one shown on the left side of Slide 2. This is a physics issue. Without fossil fuels, we would find it necessary to go back to using older renewables, such as oxen or horses for plowing, burned wood and other biomass for heat, and wind-powered sail boats for international transport.
Needless to say, these older renewables are only available in tiny quantities today, if they are available at all. They wouldn’t provide many jobs other than those depending on manual labor, such as subsistence agriculture. Nuclear and modern renewables would not be available because they depend on fossil fuels for their production, maintenance and long distance transmission lines.
On Slide 4, note that M. King Hubbert was a physicist. This seems to be the academic specialty that finds holes in other people’s wishful thinking.
Another thing to note is Hubbert’s willingness to speculate about the future of nuclear energy. He seemed to believe that nuclear energy could take over, when other energy fails. Needless to say, this hasn’t happened. Today, nuclear energy comprises only 4% of the world’s total energy supply.
The transcript of the entire talk by Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover is worth reading. I have excerpted a few sentences from his talk. His talk took place only a year after Hubbert published his research.
Rickover clearly understood the important role that fossil fuels played in the economy. At that early date, it looked as if fossil fuels would become too expensive to extract between 2000 and 2050. A doubling of unit costs for energy may not sound like much, but it is, if a person thinks about how much poor people in poor countries spend on food and other energy products. If the price of these goods rises from 25% of their income to 50% of their income, there is not enough left over for other goods and services.
Regarding Slide 6, the book The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others provided early computer modeling of how population growth and extraction of resources might play out. The base model seemed to indicate that economic decline would start about now. Various other scenarios were considered, including a doubling of the resources. Without very unrealistic assumptions, the economy always headed downward before 2100.
Another way of approaching the problem is to analyze historical civilizations that have collapsed. Peter Turchin and Sergey Nefedov analyzed eight economies that collapsed in their book Secular Cycles. There have been many examples of economies encountering a new source of energy (conquering a new land, or developing a new way of producing more energy), growing for a time, reaching a time where growth is more limited, and finally discovering that the economy that had been built up could no longer be supported by the resources available. Both population and production of goods and services tended to crash.
We can think of the current economy, based on the use of fossil fuels, as likely following a similar path. Coal began to be used in quantity about 200 years ago, in 1820. The economy grew, as oil and natural gas production was added. We seem to have hit a period of “Stagflation,” about 1970, which is 50 years ago. The timing might be right to enter the “Crisis” period, about now.
We don’t know how long such a Crisis Period might last this time. Early economies were very different from today’s economy. They didn’t depend on electricity, international trade or international finance in the same way that today’s world economy does. It is possible (in fact, fairly likely) that the downslope might occur more rapidly this time.
Past Crisis Periods seem to feature a high level of conflict because rising population leads to a situation where there are no longer enough goods and services to go around. According to Turchin and Nefedov, some features of the Crisis Periods included increased wage disparity, collapsing or overturned governments, debt defaults, inadequate tax revenue and epidemics. Economists tell us that there is a physics reason for the rich to get richer and the poor to get poorer during Crisis Periods; in some sense, the poor get “frozen out” and the wealth rises to the top, like steam.
Slide 9 is a chart I prepared several years ago, showing the growth in the world production of fuels of various types. What little wind and solar was available at that time was included in the biofuels section at the bottom. Early biofuels consisted largely of wood and charcoal used for heat.
Slide 10 shows average annual increases for 10-year periods corresponding to the periods shown on Slide 9. This chart goes to 2020, so it covers a full 200-year period. Note that the increases in energy consumption shown are especially high in the 1951-1960 and 1961-1970 periods. These periods occurred after World War II when the economy was growing especially rapidly.
Slide 11 is similar to Slide 10, except I divide the bars into two pieces. The bottom, blue part corresponds to the amount that population grew, on average, during this ten-year period. Whatever is left over I have referred to as the amount available to increase the standard of living, shown in red. A person can see that when the overall growth in energy consumption is high, population tends to rise rapidly. With more energy, it is possible to feed and clothe larger families.
Slide 12 is like Slide 11, except that it is an area chart. I have also added some notes regarding what went wrong when energy consumption growth was low or negative. An early dip occurred at the time of the US Civil War. There was a very long, low period later that corresponded to the period of World War I, World War II and the Depression. The collapse of the central government of the Soviet Union occurred in 1991, so it is part of the 10-year period ended 2000. Most recently, we have encountered COVID shutdowns.
The peaks, on the other hand, tended to be good times. The period leading up to 1910 corresponded to the time of early electrification. The period after World War II was a period of growth and rebuilding. Most recently, China and its large coal resources helped pull the world economy forward. China’s coal supply stopped growing about 2013. I have written that we can no longer depend on China’s economy to pull the world economy forward. With recent rolling blackouts in China (mentioned in the next section), this is becoming more evident.
Without enough energy, the current period is beginning to look more and more like the period that included World War I and II and the Great Depression. Strange outcomes can occur when there basically are not enough resources to go around.
Slide 14 shows recent energy production. A person can see from this slide that wind and solar aren’t really ramping up very much. A major problem is caused by the fact that wind and solar are given the subsidy of “going first” and prices paid to other electricity producers are adjusted downward, to reflect the fact that their electricity is no longer needed by the grid. This approach tends to drive nuclear out of business because wholesale electricity rates tend to fall to very low levels, or become negative, when unneeded wind and solar are added. Nuclear power plants cannot easily shut down. Instead, the low prices tend to drive the nuclear power plants out of business. This is sad, because electricity from nuclear is far more stable, and thus more helpful to the grid, than electricity from wind or solar.
Fossil fuel producers need quite high energy prices for a variety of reasons. One of these reasons is simply because the easiest-to-extract resources were removed first. In recent years, producers have needed to move on to resources with a higher cost of extraction, thus raising their required selling prices. Wages of ordinary citizens haven’t kept up, making it hard for selling prices to rise sufficiently to cover the new higher costs.
Another issue is that fossil fuel energy prices need to cover far more than the cost of drilling the current well. Producers need to start to develop new areas to drill, years in advance of actually getting production from those sites. They need extra funds to work on these new sites.
Also, oil companies, especially, have historically paid high taxes. Besides regular income taxes, oil companies pay state taxes and royalty taxes. These taxes are a way of passing the “surplus energy” that is produced back to the rest of the economy, in the form of taxes. This is exactly the opposite of wind and solar that need subsidies of many kinds, especially the subsidy of “going first,” that drives other electricity providers out of business.
Prices for oil, coal and natural gas have been far lower than producers need, for a long time. The COVID shutdowns in 2020 made the problem worse. Now, with producers quitting at the same time the economy is trying to reopen, it is not surprising that some prices are spiking.
Most local US papers don’t tell much about world energy prices, but these are increasingly becoming a big problem. Natural gas is expensive to ship and store, so prices vary greatly around the world. US natural gas prices have roughly doubled from a year ago, but this is a far lower increase than many other parts of the world are experiencing. In fact, the bills that most US natural gas residential customers will receive will increase by far less than 100% because at the historic low price, over half of the price for residential service is distribution expenses, and such expenses don’t change very much.
Slide 17 shows another way of looking at data that is similar to that in Slide 14. This slide shows amounts on a per capita basis, with groupings I have chosen. I think of coal and oil as being pretty much the only energy resources that can “stand on their own.” The recent peak year for combined coal and oil, on a per capita basis, was 2008.
Natural gas, nuclear, and hydroelectric were the first add-ons. If a person looks closely, it can be seen that the growth rate of this group has slowed, at least in part because of the pricing problems caused by wind and solar.
The “green” sources at the bottom are growing, but from a very low base. The main reason for their growth is the subsidies they receive. If fossil fuels falter in any major way, it will adversely affect the growth of wind and solar. Already, there are articles about supply chain problems for the big wind turbines. Any cutback in subsidies is also harmful to their production.
US papers don’t tell us much about these problems, but they are getting to be very serious problems in other parts of the world. The countries with the biggest problems are the ones trying to import natural gas or coal. If an exporting country finds its own production falling short, it is likely to make certain that its own citizens are adequately supplied first, before providing exports to others. Thus, importing countries may find very high prices, or supplies simply not available.
This slide got a lot of laughs. The university does have some sort of agricultural plot, but teaching subsistence farming is not its goal.
My point about “scientists who are not pressured by the need for research grants or acceptance of written papers are the ones trying to tell the whole truth” got quite a few laughs. As a practical matter, this means that retired scientists tend to be disproportionately involved in trying to discern the truth.
With the military understanding the need to work around energy limits, one change has been to move away from preparation for “hot wars” to more interest in biological weapons, such as viruses. Thus, governments of many countries, including the United States, Canada, France, Italy, Australia and China, have funded research on making viruses more virulent. The vaccine-making industry also supported this effort because it might enhance the industry’s ability to make and sell more vaccines. It was believed that there might even be new techniques that would develop from this new technology that would increase the overall revenue generated by the healthcare industry.
Questions came up, both during the talk and later, about what other changes have taken place because of the need for much of the audience to hear a story with a happily ever after ending, and because of the known likely decline of the economy for physics reasons. Clearly one thing that happens is successful entrepreneurs, such as Elon Musk, aim their production in areas where subsidies will be available. With fossil fuel production not making money, fossil fuel producers are even willing to undertake renewable projects if subsidies seem to be high enough. The issue isn’t really, “What is sustainable?” It is much more, “Where will the profits be, given where subsidies will be, and what people are being taught about how to perceive today’s problems?”
In fact, what has been happening in recent years is that a great deal of debt has been added to the world economy. Mostly, this added debt seems to be creating added inflation. It definitely is not leading to the rapid extraction of a great deal more fossil fuels, which is what really would allow the production of more goods and services. If inflation leads to higher interest rates, this, by itself, could destabilize the financial system.
I tried to explain, as I have in the past, how a self-organizing economy works. New citizens are born, and old ones pass away. New businesses are formed, and they add new products, keeping in mind what products citizens want and can afford. Governments add laws and taxes, as situations change. Energy is needed at every step in production, so availability of inexpensive energy is important in the operation of the economy, as well. There are equivalences, such as employees tend also to be customers. If the wages of employees are high, they can afford to buy many goods and services; if wages are low, employees will be very restricted in what they can afford.
In some sense, the economy is hollow inside, because the economy will stop manufacturing unneeded products. If an economy starts making cars, for example, it will phase out products associated with transportation using horse and buggy.
A self-organizing economy clearly does not operate in the simple way economists seem to model the economy. Low prices can be just as big a problem as high prices, for example.
Another issue is that the energy needs of an economy seem to depend on its population and how far it has already been built up. For example, roads, bridges, water distribution pipelines and electricity transmission infrastructure must all be maintained, even if the population falls. We know humans need something like 2000 calories a day of food. Economies seem to have a similar constant need for energy, based on both the number of people in the economy and the amount of infrastructure that has been built up. There is no way to cut back very much, without the economy collapsing.
I am not exactly certain when the first discussion of the economy as a dissipative structure (self-organizing system powered by energy) started. When I prepared this slide, I was thinking that perhaps it was in 1996, when Yoshinori Shizoawa wrote a paper called Economy as a Dissipative Structure. However, when I did a search today, I encountered an earlier paper by Robert Ayres, written in 1988, also discussing the economy as a dissipative structure. So, the idea has been around for a very long time. But getting ideas from one part of academia to other parts of academia seems to be a very slow process.
Debt cannot grow indefinitely, either, because there needs to be a way for it to be paid back in a way that produces real goods and services. Without adequate energy supplies, it becomes impossible to produce the goods and services that consumers need.
Attendees asked about earlier posts that might be helpful in understanding our current predicament. This is the list I provided:
Humans Left Sustainability Behind as Hunter Gatherers – Dec. 2, 2020
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden – June 21, 2021
Energy Is the Economy; Shrinkage in Energy Supply Leads to Conflict – Nov. 9, 2020
Why a Great Reset Based on Green Energy Isn’t Possible – July 17, 2020
The “Wind and Solar Will Save Us” Delusion – Jan. 30, 2017
Yes but all of this is temporary look at 2005-2007
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/making-sense/id1506469669?i=1000540738320
I am afraid I have not subscribed to Apple podcasts. Part of my problem is lack of time to listen to very many audio or video presentations. Written presentations are a lot easier to scan and read only the part that seems relevant.
This one is entitled: “Reading Jeff Snider: When Nobody’s Looking, Past Economic Activity is Revised Downward”
I have run into the problem in the past, in trying to use data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Historical GDP growth numbers suddenly are revised downward. This makes the comparison of the current numbers to the past amounts look better.
BTW — the first thing Fast Eddy did when HE was informed that multiple vaccines were coming online was search for info on coronavirus vaccines … and he found
https://www.wired.com/2003/05/feds-race-to-make-sars-vaccine/
That was not what actually put HIM off the idea… HE already knew this was a massive conspiracy to kill kill KILL (that’s the benefit of knowing that governments conspire… ) and HE knew vaccines take many years to test for safety…
But HE was interested in what happened the last time an attempt was made to create a coronavirus vaccine…
Imagine taking a vaccine that is only a year out of the gate. Hahahahhaha… jeeezus christ… that’s really is a new level of Du mb!!!
http://i1.ytimg.com/vi/TC44L21UtiA/maxresdefault.jpg
I wonder if the CovIDIOTS ever experience envy of the Pure Bloods…
I betcha all those CovIDIOTS on the ventilators do … at least some of them… it’s wasn’t supposed to turn out that way … hahahahahaa.. haha….. ahahahahahhahahaaha .. ha
When he woke up on November 3, I asked him if he wanted to go get his shot that morning or wait until the weekend. “Right now!” he replied, running to his room to get dressed. “Let’s go, Mom. We can eat breakfast in the car!”
On the way we talked about how a vaccine is like a teacher for your immune system, giving it information just in case the virus shows up with a pop quiz.
At the vaccination site we were greeted by bright, friendly faces and an accumulation of local media. The line was quick, and we were ushered inside with a celebratory feel.
My son was ecstatic that therapy dogs were present and had a conversation with a golden retriever named Tank while I signed his consent form.
My child got vaccinated for COVID-19. He says his only side effect so far has been ‘happiness.’
Heather Fay
Wed, November 10, 2021, 9:02 AM·3 min read
See Fast Eddy. You just got to put your own mind right friend.irs for your own good buddy
Sounds like the people that I speak to on the covid hotline … and the chemists… very happy smiling MOREONS… eager to help me out by injecting me with poison…
They very quickly lose those MOREONIC smiles when Fast Eddy shows up unsmiling … and asking for the long term studies… and why they are not providing free donuts…
I had a dream the other night… I agreed to the injection .. was ushered into a private room… door was closed… and just as the needle was about to do it’s damage … I reacted (in self defence … as one would when someone is attempting to murder you) swinging a wild right hand… and hitting the MOREON on the jaw so hard… that his head hit the ground before his arse….
Then I came out of the room and shouted call the police… I’ve just had an attempt on my life!!!
norm … have they scheduled Number Four yet?
Let’s explore stu pidity…
Let’s say I am a top pharma scientist… and I have developed a treatment that eliminates high blood pressure.
You have high blood pressure controlled by drugs.
I develop and test my treatment over the course of a year then approach you and offer it to you for free (along with a donut).
And you say hmmm… doesn’t it usually take longer than a year to develop and test a new treatment…
And I say no this is new… it’s new tech… we can thoroughly test it in less than a year.. because it’s revolutionary stuff.
Now someone with a bit of intelligence surely would say … but how do you know that if I take your treatment I won’t be dead in the second year… since it’s only been around for a year … so you have no idea what the long term side effects might be.
And I say … but it’s new and revolutionary … if it was safe in the first year it’s 100% guaranteed safe down the road… it’s thoroughly tested….
The slightly intelligent person tells me to get f789ed…
But… BUT … the really stu.pid MOREON says … sounds good — give me the treatment….
norm … dunc… which one are you?
😂
😉
💉
PS
🚀🌙
taikong ren
707 upside down.
Inflation then deflation….wages are not keeping up
Shadowstats calculates inflation about 4% higher than the official 6.2%
(using the more honest 1990 gov method)
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
how about inflation and deflation at the same time?
inflation on essentials, and deflation on discretionary items.
the self-reorganizing system is continually readjusting for its net (surplus) energy input.
since this energy input is now in a creepingly slow decline, the system has to throw off unaffordable uneconomical subsystems.
this readjustment sends less money to discretionary sectors, and thus enables essential sectors to continue, otherwise the whole system would quickly collapse.
so at this point in time, deflating discretionary sectors are necessary.
“how about inflation and deflation at the same time?
inflation on essentials, and deflation on discretionary items.”
I think what you’re suggesting is changes in price (or the ever-confusing terms of price inflation / deflation), not simultaneous inflation and deflation.
If you accept Friedman’s argument that inflation / deflation are always monetary phenomenon, then when inflation and deflation occur simultaneously, one would cancel the other out with the remaining balance being the amount of inflation / deflation actually taking place.
Example: if central banks increase global “money” (via credit, not physical printing of money) by 7%, but a default of an unnamed Chinese property development company leads to a financial crisis that shrinks the global economy (and thus “money”) by 5%, then you’re really only left with a 2% increase in overall “money”. Prices may fluctuate wildly on all sorts of goods / commodities / services as a result, but the overall change is still only 2% inflation.
At least that’s my basic understanding of it. It does help to think of it in those terms when I find myself wondering why we haven’t been hit with much higher across-the-board prices given all the “money printing” central banks have been doing for the last two decades; we’re great at pointing out all the times the money supply grows, but we aren’t so diligent at recognizing how much credit within our system disappears every day due to it being paid off or defaulted on.
Cheers,
-GBV
Inflation and deflation are occuring simultaneously. What you see as CPi or PPi print is aggragate between inflationand deflation. In a nutshell for now inflation processess are greater in the equation hence the outcome is elevated inflation (the deflation in the system is less in ggragate terms than the inflation).
Yes! Stagflation is what we get. In real terms.
Now we spend most of our income on discretionaries and only a little on essentials.
Later we will spend as much on essentials, because since it is essentials we much, but much less on discretionaries.
A person would think medical care and higher education (or perhaps all education) need to shrink back.
I think we may see a lot of volatility going forward with bouts of inflation, followed by deflation and so on, but with a long term trend towards inflation due to governments spending.
There are pressures to underinvest in fossil fuel, but then this can lead to higher prices, which at some point kill the economy, and brings lower fossil fuel prices, until supplies get tight again, and the cycle repeats.
The problem is that this historical cycle can no longer repeat. The amount by which prices would need to ramp up is too high. It affects all fossil fuels and ethanol at once. The prices would need to stay at a high level for years and years. This would drive food prices far out of reach of many people in the world. Wars would start. Starvation would ensue. Governments would be overthrown. More epidemics would be a problem, because of all of the undernourished people. At would only be after 5 or more years of high prices that higher production would perhaps take place.
The problem would be that huge numbers of debtors would default on their debts. Financial systems would likely collapse. High energy prices would not really stay around for years and years. Or if high energy prices do stay around, it would be because governments were printing more and more money. All that would be happening is general inflation. This wouldn’t work either, because it is the inflation-adjusted price of fossil fuels and ethanol that needs to stay high.
It seems that inflation is now taking center stage. I looked at Zerohedge everyday (headlines) and it is all inflation
Inflation can also be caused by shortages
same as above, USA inflation is probably about 10%.
I don’t know about other countries exactly, but smaller weaker collapsing countries seem to have inflation many multiples higher than 10.
Economist John Williams has inflation running at the low side of 14%. Don’t forget about product shrinkage, that’s also inflation.
https://www.financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2021/11/inflate-rate-is-over-14-with-john-williams/
okay I do see that.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
John Williams at Shadowstats also has a graph using the 1980 method of calculating inflation, and indeed it is 14%.
gov stats have gotten fakeyfake in the past 40 years, as the economic level of the average person declines and requires an institutional coverup.
and unemployment 25%
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Austrian economics defines inflation as an excess of currency chasing too few goods. That is the demand-pull description. Consumers have plenty of dollars to buy things they may want, but don’t always necessarily need.
But when the producers can not afford to manufacture goods due to increased costs of energy, materials, or labor, then that creates cost-push inflation. That will increase prices mostly for things that the consumers actually need, like food and energy.
Consumers then have to sell things they don’t need (deflationary) to buy things they need (inflationary.)
I know this website has been mentioned before even by Gail
https://eugyppius.substack.com/
I strongly encourage you all to read this website and look at the comments. They are all very pertinent and intelligent comments. No spam or junk.
Make it as part of your routine reading
I receive alerts for new stories from that site… Alex Berenson as well.
“Would Kennesaw State University tell its students, ‘We think most of you should learn subsistence farming?’
“Not likely!”
comedy gold.
great article, thanks. Right at the beginning, slide 2, I noticed “Expect a rapid decline in employment opportunities…”
by its very nature, a self-organizing system is always a self-reorganizing system.
In Dr. Howard Odum’s seminar in 1970 or 71, I learned that the economy, indeed the entire ecosystem, is a self organizing system powered by energy. Odum didn’t use the term “dissipative structure”, but when you look at diagrams of his models, energy is dissipated at every step.
The concept has been around a very long time. Howard Odum had quite a few ideas right.
Economists have done their best to ignore the work in energy-related fields.
the entire universe is a function of dissipating energy
we are just a miniscule part of that.
the joke, (as far as were are concerned that is) is that we invented gods and wrote holy books to convince ourselves that we are exempt from all that stuff.
Care Homes in England Set to Lose 50,000 Staff as COVID Vaccine Becomes Mandatory
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/10/care-homes-in-england-set-to-lose-50000-staff-as-covid-vaccine-becomes-mandatory
Slide 2: peak oil and climate change are both interrelated depletion problems. What is depleting with human induced climate change is the absorption capacity of the atmosphere (and oceans) for additional CO2 and CH4 – if we want to stay within a certain range of temperature increase, e.g. 1.5 degrees C (boundary condition)
If the US Federal Reserve had not started QE1-QE3 in response to the 2008 oil price shock after the initial crude oil peak in 2005 then shale oil would not have been developed and the world would have entered an enduring oil crisis. Less economic activity would have reduced emissions.
It is obvious that the need to reduce the use of fossil fuels covers up peak oil. This has been hidden in oil production graphs of the World Energy Outlooks (IEA) for some years now.
Our political systems do not have the educational qualifications nor the mindset to do systems dynamics like Meadows. Limits to Growth was compulsory reading when I did a post graduate degree in town & regional planning. When I came across peak oil in 2002 I immediately saw this in the context of LTG.
As you are rightly saying, renewable energies need fossil fuels to be developed. If oil declines too fast because of lack of investments then the deployment of new energy systems including energy storage will be too slow to meet the above mentioned boundary condition.
The Covid virus has taken away capacity of the system to deal with energy problems. Interest in this topic has waned, even in the blogosphere. Mainstream media will report about physical energy shortages like in UK or China, but never present the long-term context. I tweet them my graphs but no response.
The thing is that shale oil was already an established technology but it was not particularly profitable except in a few sweet spots. It was bound to be developed as the price of oil increased.
The shale oil industry mostly lost money. That’s why I am saying that w/o money printing this would not have happened. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-17/after-blowing-300-billion-u-s-shale-is-finally-making-money
I’ve been reading Crude Oil Peak for years and, as an Australian, I have got a thorough education from it about Peak Oil in the Asian Region. Mr Mushalik rarely expresses personal opinions and I’d like to see more of it at this time…at this juncture in history.
What do you think the price of oil will be going forward? I am going to say a short term spike followed by a crash. It’s funny how both the left and the right are spinning this right now! Fox News!!! It’s all Biden fault! We have so much oil if the government would just get out of the way! CNN it’s all the Middle East fault and Co$/d !!! Both equally morons…..
I would guess a spike and then a crash, as well.
I think that the big point is that whatever is done, not much more oil is likely to come out. Self-organizing systems behave strangely. So, it doesn’t matter which party is elected.
Am I correct in saying that the oil majors have been trying to brainwash investors and the public at large by saying that the problem is ‘peak oil demand’? That is to say that there’s plenty of accessible oil but there’s just less demand for it due to other fuels – hydrogen, lithium batteries, kyptonite, etc?
I have commented before on the importance of QE for oil prices. This is a chart on which I show the correspondence of the beginning of QE1 to the uptick in oil prices, and the correspondence of the end of QE3 to the falling oil prices.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/43.-Interest-rates-and-size-of-debt-bubble-determine-how-high-oil-prices-rise.png
I think that oil prices are increasingly getting out of the control of Central Bankers. Many people have said that a major purpose of the shutdowns related to COVID was to have an excuse to pump much more debt into the world economy, to keep it from collapsing. This may very well be the case. Nothing seems to happen for a single reason. The economy needed to shut down, because things weren’t going well. Too many factories were working at less than capacity. Too many workers were earning low wages.
It is hard to get the system going, because the system has been failing for quite a while. If I remember correctly, 2017 was the peak year for world automobile sales. China stopped its recycling business (mostly), effective January 1, 2018. Trying to keep the economy pumped up high enough to allow extraction of fossil fuels (including coal and natural gas besides oil) is basically becoming impossible, regardless of what the issues are with CO2.
Screeching about “CLIMATE CHANGE” or “CLIMATE CRISIS” is a handy way to cover up Peak Oil.
Get a COVID Vaccine for Ages 5 to 11? You Could Win a Scholarship to SUNY, CUNY
New York’s will raffle off 50 full scholarships to any New York public college or university for children aged 5 to 11 as part of the state’s push to get more kids vaccinated, Gov. Kathy Hochul announced Tuesday.
The announcement came as Hochul noted New York was receiving more than 700,000 pediatric doses of the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine, with plans to soon obtain more doses for the entire 1.5 million New Yorkers in the age group.
The “vaccinate, educate, graduate” vaccine incentive scholarship is part of a five-week public outreach campaign, running through Dec. 19, Hochul said. It will award the scholarships to any campuses within the State University of New York or City University of New York systems.
https://www.lohud.com/story/news/coronavirus/2021/11/09/covid-vaccine-ny-kids-suny-scholarship/6358026001/
Yo, Brother Eddie, the Nightly News is urging ALL ADLT to get a booster shot ASAP because Winter is coming a a SURGE of Cases will sweep the ICU Hospital units…
It’s a crisis situation BRO
Dr. Fauci says it’s expected that everyone will eventually need boosters, and the general population could be up for boosters this winter.
The global death toll from COVID-19 topped 5 million on Monday, less than two years into a crisis that has not only devastated poor countries but also humbled wealthy ones with first-rate health care systems.
Canada – later to the game with the injections … is rocking and rolling!
Health Canada has approved the use of Pfizer’s Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine for booster shots for everyone 18 and over.
https://battlefordsnow.com/2021/11/09/health-canada-approves-pfizer-booster-for-18-age-group/
Aussie’s similar…
Funny thing… I made my regular call to the covid hotline yesterday … said I am STILL not sure… about this injection … how can I help (kill you) said the lady…
So I said I just read that the CDC says the injections do not provide any protection from getting covid… directly quoting Wallensky…
The lady says that is somewhat true but she believed that it does reduce the transmission…
Oh … I said … have you seen Singapore? Worlds Most Vaxxed – 85% of the total population – they have 4x the number of infections vs a year ago when nobody was vaxxed…
That would seem to indicate that people with the vax are MORE infectious… any idea what’s going on there?
Very flustered… blubbering like a buffoon… oh well it’s not 100% effective… yes I know that … but that is not the point … why are the infections so much HIGHER when most people are vaxxed…
Then I explained it to her like I would to an 8 yr old… in 2020… nobody was injected and they had 1000 cases per day … and a year later they have 4000 cases per day….
How can you say the injections reduces the spread?
Still not breaking through… so I asked her what is 1+1… and informed her… it’s not 3 or 7 or 0… it’s 2. Just want to establish that as a benchmark here…
Then of course she fell back on – but it stops you from dying….
Back to Singapore — record deaths…. after the injections ….
Based on this I said — I am not sure why you would recommend the Pfizer… or try to schedule me an appointment … is there something I am missing… are there some benefits that I am not aware of????
I intended to ask if perhaps there might be free donuts… maybe a pie (NZers love their pies!!!)…
But she hung up on me.
Hahahahhahaahahahahahaha… I may call again and see if I get another person so I can go through all of this again … it’s so much fun hahahahahahaha….
Today’s call… focused on the long term studies…
The lady of the day said no there are none… so I says .. so how do I know I won’t be dead in 2 years if I take the jab…. a long pause… well I guess you can’t know she says…
Oh I says… hmmm… so I am being invited to be part of an experiment… long pause… well if that’s what you want to call it… I says well I am not scientist but this seems to meet the definition of experiment… trying something and seeing what happens …
Well yes she says … I guess you are right….
Then I mentioned Singapore and she was unable to comment on that … she’s trying to find me someone who can …
I suspect she’s trying to reach Ardern or Hipkins… stay tuned
I greatly enjoy these ‘I’m hesitant, please convince me’ dialogues by FE.
Civilisation ends as a Monty Python sketch…….
Dune was a lovely movie much more true to the book than its predecessor. While good fantasy entertainment one might ask.
What would be the motive of the characters if the worms all died and the spice was finite. Convenient that the worms create infinite spice hey? Ambiotic spice? And the Liet Kynes dream to bring water to the planet killing all the worms? Thats cool with the Fremen?
Also rather convenient that its a high born white boy that happens to be the kwisatch whatever ala the one rather than some local talent. Not sure Chani would be that interested in the real world but ya never know until you try. foreordain visions about romance not the best idea for mental health. Better to accept it might be Chani number 23 three sietchs down if chani doesnt dig you.
I know. Heresy.
Denis vision of F. Herbert “Dune” is a master piece (maybe bit more boosted score). Denis is just brilliant telling a story through visuals and camera game.
As for Paul who is a product of several milenia long genetic program run by Bene Geserit in the books he is middle eastern type looking. Also the religion permiating the empire (which is also mostly run by Bene Geserit through their Missionaria Protectiva for millenia) being very important for commoners is muslim based with mixes of heavily muslimised christianity and budhism (although the official religion book is called Orange Catholic Bible).
Herbert paints in his Dune books a very feudalistic society, one built on utalitarian and authoritarian principles (after the near extinction of the Buttlerian Jihad) with only one branch of high technology (Holzzman effect/radiation). This society has existed in its static form for about 11K years before Paul/Muad’dib starts a war wiping 72 trillion people across all planets of the known galaxy.
Dune is pretty wild read if you ask me.
On CHD.TV’s “The Defender Show,” Kennedy and Clapton discussed the musician’s severe adverse reaction to the second dose of AstraZeneca’s COVID vaccine. The injury left Clapton permanently disabled, he said.
Clapton told Kennedy how he came upon “the rabbit hole” of vaccine information, and described what happened when he went public with his vaccine injury. He also shared why being sober helped him cope with the entire ordeal.
When Kennedy asked, “How did you walk into this buzz saw?” Clapton replied:
“Over the past year, there’s been a lot of disappearing, you know — little dust around with people moving away quite quickly. And it has, for me, refined the kind of friendships I have. And it’s dwindled down to the people that I obviously really need and love.
“And inside my family that became quite pivotal … I’ve got teenage girls and an older girl who’s in her thirties, and they’ve all had to kind of give me leeway because I haven’t been able to convince any of them. I think my wife is now seeing it the same way as me, but most of them, they’ve always thought I’m a crackpot anyway, because I do things that are extremely unusual on any kind of level.”
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/rfk-jr-defender-robert-f-kennedy-eric-clapton-covid-vaccine-injury/
Hmmm… you would think the kids would ‘see it his way’… antagonizing your permanently disabled father… might affect your trust fund.
This person is Joe Biden’s nominee for the Office of Comptroller of Currency. Her name is Saule Omarova and she received the Lenin Personal Academic Scholarship at Moscow State University; her thesis was on Marxism.
On Wednesday she was quoted as saying the Biden plan for moving on to Flintstone cars as fast as possible and preventing mass extinction from climate change, should be to to starve the oil and gas industry of all capital; “we WANT them to go bankrupt if we want to tackle climate change.” This nomination should give you some idea of just how fucked up this administration is regarding energy and a rational, affordable transition to renewables.
In that Ms. Omarova now has her foot now squarely planted in her mouth and will never be able to walk these comments back far enough, we do not expect her to actually be nominated.
So that she is not disappointed and receives some recognition for her nomination, however brief that might have actually been, Ms. Omarova WILL receive the Oily Stuff Blog, Dumb As a Crate Of Rocks Award for 2021 with our sincere congratulations.
https://www.oilystuffblog.com/single-post/we-have-a-winner?postId=a2df9495-3423-4bec-9323-996b0974a4ab
She’s just prepping the MOREONS for the collapse of BAU… she doesn’t really want to end the party
Good day….
Inconvenient truths are rarely told
1. People (including politicians) do not know or like the truth. Calm me with lies is fine.
2. There are always solutions to the problems. Nothing can be solved with technology. Check out the science fiction movies on how good or bad the future is but there is always a future.
3. They don’t understand the details of the problem or the solution and whether it will work or not is another question.
4. There is always hope (Alan Watts : Hope is for suckers)
5. People (including politicians) trying to make personal gain
Thanks Gail for the article.
A quick question to all the readers out there….. is it just me only or there are some who are like me having a withdrawal anxiety every 20 days ? 😉
Sorry about the withdrawal problem. I am not good at getting a new post up quickly.
Gaill. no worries at all…. No one is rushing you… Just a smirky comment. No offense. We love your work very much
The lack of an outlet to blow off steam on the resident CovIDIOTS of OFW reminds of that axiom regarding idle minds being the devil’s workshop…
Even a few days can lead to wicked thoughts festering … and it’s a really bad situation for the covid hotline people… and the chemists…
But alas norm dunc are back …
The comments tide me over, for the most part
Hate for everything to unravel during a hiatus…
You are definetly not alone, CTG 😀
Figure 6 must be a mistake- in this post and in your power point. You’re discussing The Limits to Growth, but the slide is obviously from something by Ugo Bardi. The scenarios from LTG all show a set of curves for perhaps 5 different variables which the authors modeled. Even if the shape of the Fig 6 curve is similar- which I’m not sure- it still doesn’t represent the LTG authors’ work. I’m not criticizing your arguments, just wanted to point this out so it could be corrected.
Ugo Bardi’s shape is an easier to understand general shape of the downslope. I am fairly certain I read in one of his posts that it is the shape of the overall collapse that is generated by the World3 model. Ugo Bardi has done quite a bit of work for the Club of Rome which, of course, sponsored the Limits to Growth analysis. Ugo has, in fact, written a great deal about the 1972 modeling of Limits to Growth.
A couple of weeks ago, I gave a talk to the International Society for the System Sciences. Ugo Bardi was one of the attendees for my talk. I included the chart I show in Figure 6, and characterized it the way I did in Figure 6. Ugo did ask me a question after my talk, but he didn’t seem to have any problem with what I said about the Seneca Curve.
I cannot imagine that there is a problem with the chart. It is not like Ugo Bardi is a random blogger, writing about the subject. He has been deeply embedded in the issue for a long time. I could write to Ugo and ask him to correct my characterization of the chart, if it is wrong.
If that’s what you meant to present, sorry. I just expected a figure from LTG or a sequel, based on the text.
I would point out two different things:
This is the front cover of the 30-year update, in at least some versions. Its chart is similar to the one I showed.
https://ourfiniteworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/Front-cover-of-Limts-to-Growth-the-30-year-update.png
The other thing is that Ugo Bardi is the author of a 2011 book Limits to Growth Revisited,” published as part of the Springer Brief’s series (in other words, in Charlie Hall’s series of energy-related books).
There is a group of people who have historically been closely connected, including Dennis Meadows, Charlie Hall, and Ugo Bardi. I have been connected to this group as well, but to a significant extent as a critic of Charlie Hall’s EROEI model because the calculation he gives for renewables is not equivalent to that used in the World3 model. It gives far too high an indication of the value of intermittent renewables.
Your comments after slide 30 about the economy’s constant need for energy reminded me of Tim Garret’s work (for example, this paper) which shows that the ratio, globally, of energy to accumulated wealth (in rough terms, just adding up each year’s GDP over the entire history of humans) has been fairly constant over time at 5:9 Gigawatts per trillion 2010 US dollars. Not only is there a constant need for energy, that need will not go down in a so-called steady state economy and will need to constantly increase in our current economic system. So steady state or BAU will require fossil fuels ad infinitum. What could possibly go wrong?
There are a lot of reasons that a steady state economy makes no sense. A major reason is diminishing returns with respect to all kinds of resources. Oceans have been over-fished. As population has grown, fresh water per capita becomes an increasing problem. Every kind of mineral depletes. It takes an increasing amount of energy to produce the same amount of practically anything.
That is a wonderful tour de force Gail, and I am sure that you left them with plenty to think about. The story does get multifaceted, and I admit that I felt a bit ‘maxed out’ myself. Fortunately, I follow your work, and so I did not really need to assimilate it all in one reading, as I already have – even so, just reading it all in one go was a bit of a ‘max out’. Students (and staff) might be well advised to revisit the material in sections – and the internet makes that easy enough for them.
I will pick up on slide 12.
Living in UK we have seen a massive fall in energy consumption per capita in recent decades, and at the same time the disintegration of constitutional stability and of relations with other countries. It is not open hostilities yet or the break up of the state (UK), but the trajectory does seem to be in that direction.
The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has today, following other senior yet lesser EU voices, linked a UK invocation of article 16, suspending the NI Protocol, with a suspension of the entire Brexit deal. Nothing is certain yet about who is going to what or when, but the scenario being mooted is a significant breakdown in trade (even a partial blockade of UK through slowed processing at continental ports has been mooted).
I must emphasise how strange this all seems, a breakdown in relations with Europe and USA. Those relations have been pretty stable throughout my life so far, and the whole potential ‘break up’ of the UK was fairly unexpected stuff too just a decade ago. One could easily miss how unusual this whole situation is here. (There is now even talk about restoring a trade border within Ireland, which could undo decades of relative stability there.)
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2021/1110/1259031-brexit/
> Protocol has a ‘clear link’ to EU-UK trade deal – Sefcovic
The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator has told member states there is a clear link between the bloc’s free trade deal with Britain and the Northern Ireland Protocol, RTÉ News understands.
Maros Sefcovic referred to Britain’s continuing threats to trigger Article 16 and said the Trade and Cooperation Agreement was contingent on the sequencing in the divorce negotiations, which included resolving the Irish border issue first.
…. A number of ambassadors are understood to have called for a “calm, methodical and proportionate” response if the UK triggers Article 16. However, France and Germany both signalled that a robust response should follow.
…. Mr Frost said more talks would be held with the EU as the UK and the bloc struggled to overcome differences over the protocol. But he told the British House of Lords in Westminster that triggering Article 16 would be the UK’s only option if the dispute was not resolved.
…. Mr Martin said he did not think there was a need to trigger Article 16. “Trade would be disrupted ultimately. Access to the single market is important to people in Northern Ireland. Any triggering of Article 16 could ultimately jeopardise, in the shorter term, that access,” he told TDs.
I wonder whether Germany will go ahead with its plan to close its six remaining nuclear reactors, three at the end of this year, and three in 2022. Without those reactors, Europe’s need for imported fuel will be higher yet. Germany will have no electricity to export; it likely won’t have enough for itself. This only indirectly affects the UK, but it is part of the “not enough to go around” problem.
Germans usually don’t make “small” mistakes only..
And lets not forget the new incoming gov is crazier than the previous team.
Coming from there, I can only tell you that I think Germany is already completely lost.
We have been living off the substance here for 20 years, but if you are very attentive and have a wide range of interests, you can watch in slow motion how everything is falling apart bit by bit.
I would even consider emigrating if I knew where to go.
It is only natural that the EU would cut off gas and electricity from ‘third countries’ should its own supply shrink, and that would include the UK since Brexit. Brexiteers have started to think about that since the Gazprom issues.
That is simply how the world works, ‘self’ comes first, especially when the means of existence, comfort and prosperity are constricted. The UK media would no doubt spin it as ‘evil EU’ but that is just silly. UK would do exactly the same – any country would.
UK has set itself up to be cut off from the continent, as the energy flow subsides, and it will have no one to blame but itself. Choices have consequences. If we can see where things are headed then the British state has no excuses.
If people think that Britain is a miserable place then they should wait and see what life is like here when the lights go out. The lid really is likely to come off all the spite and vindictiveness. ‘Green and pleasant land’ not so much.
Best to kill everyone before the lid comes off… no?
Nothing like scarfing, snorting and injecting Retinoic Acid to make your day.
RA Clinical Trials that I found; neither has initiated the recruitment phase. Plenty of time for you to get in line.
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04353180
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04730895
Seems like they’re trying to tell us something, but they’re unable to form the words.
It seems that in Germany Green Ideology prevailed against practical sense about nuclear energy.
Actually it prevailed also in the case of developing very good diesel car engines instead of gasoline engines or hybrid ones, like Toyota (that is not hybrid plug-in car engines).
Developing diesel car engines without considering that diesel was about to deplete first (specially linked to shale oil production which has difficulty with diesel) has been probably a mistake.
Now Germany is the champion of the world in diesel car engines, but it is of no help now.
In Italian we say something like: the left hand doesn’t know what the right hand is doing.
It is something similar to develop high skills in saws production at Easter Island.
When one has eventually developed the perfect saw, trees are over.
Well, correct, but you have to see the whole nexus as it evolved, the Germans perfected the diesel engines also in terms of higher displacement sector (from cargo trucks to heavy machinery), .. so diesel engine sector has been a huge cash cow and employment bedrock for decades..
While the Asian hybrid was mostly crafted because of the city and townie small speeds, often braking regiment, local specifics (elevated oil price). While Germany (and its many export markets) is too larger degree about mixed highway mileage and city driving regiment.
== took many yrs before Japanese decided to try hybrids abroad as well, and started humbly in restricted markets ala Cali (emission / air pollution mandates) first etc.
Yes, it is the full picture and I agree with.
But the point remains, in my view, that they didn’t realize that diesel was depleting first.
Otherwise they would have taken actions about it.
Like they are not probably realizing the consequences of going to deep only with green energy following the green-ideology agenda.
Well, there was (is) a “German masterplan” – it was about boosting up the renewables bigly (wind mainly) and for securing the 24/365 grid stability pursue the following strategy:
– tie more closely (fin deals) regional hydro sources (Alpine neighbors) and Scandinavia connectors..
– the same for regional NPPs output (FR, CH, CZ, ..)
– and the biggest card try “to silently” build up the natgas network from Russia, this obviously de-cloaked burst open during the Ukraine escapades, so it became major problem, but they are willing to complete these NordStream pipelines.. (chiefly for this crucial e-backup capacity of renewables)
Slide 22 again conflates models with model runs. The models don’t assume anything about what humans do, only the interaction of various aspects of the environment. The model runs make assumptions about how those various aspects will change over time. Some of those runs do make unreasonable assumptions. However, I also thought, in 2005, or thereabouts, that it was unreasonable to think that “all liquids” production would ever increase. But it did increase. So some assumptions may seem unreasonable at some time but may end up being closer to the truth than seemed likely.
Terrible news about the high school student at St Mary’s dying of a heart attack after the Pfizer … of course it’s not the Pfizer … and no autopsy has been performed so we won’t know for sure for months says Donkey Head.
I don’t think it matters, because the way the material is presented to the users of the model output, they cannot tell exactly what went wrong where.
Clearly, a forecast of future energy consumption, directly or indirectly, needs to go into producing the model output. There cannot be a cop-out, saying that it was someone else’s (the economists’) part of the model that was wrong. It is not a historical energy amount, so that is not the issue. It is, one way or another, the output of a model by someone, somewhere.
Maybe those modeling the climate change issues did not make a mistake, but there needs to be some responsibility for failure to understand and model the fact that the economy is now collapsing. Clearly that that affects what is likely ahead.
Yes, a model is a model.
I do not know if Ugo Brdi said this but one fact is sure:
The very moment the slope is downwards, the model can no longer predict what will happen because nonlinear issues come into play.
E.g a ship blocking the suez canal.
A Hydro electric facility that has a lack of certain spare parts will quickly go down from relatively stable output to zero.That is true for every energy generator. That can make making of spare parts impossible quite quickly. Reinforcing feedback loops may kick in and nobody knows where they will show up.
Currently we have not yet run out of duckt tape to fix supply chains.
Once that happens, everything else will deteriorate quite quickly and it will then be very difficult to restart the engine.
MM, I agree with you.
I think that the point is that the powers of the world will not stand still looking at what happens.
Before realizing that duct-tape is over they will pull something else out of the hat…
Yes, but it is not the model that is in error (at least not in the way you portray it). So the ones programming the model haven’t got it wrong, it is the ones inputting the data to use for a model run who may not fully understand how some scenarios are not likely. Tweaking the model will not correct the problem you often point out.
However, as no-one can see the future, you just never know how long the resource charade can continue.
XLear is no ivermectin but it looks like it follows the Ivermectin/zinc/vitd pattern of attacking rather than embracing totally safe therapeutics that have treatment value for covid so that the injections have no competition.
Until the MRNA pills that is. Dont see how those will be enforced however without nurse crachet.
I have zero fear of infection on prophylactic ivermectin, go where i want, do what i want, no mask, smile a lot. I just wish many more people were on it so we could all be safe. I have to accept everyone’s personal choices for their own health and the health of the community however.
Excellent explanation of what’s going on in the world, and why so few people understand what’s going on. This might be your best work ever. Thank you.
You explain WHY our leaders and experts believe fairy tales, but you do not explain HOW these mostly intelligent, educated, and well intentioned people can believe fairy tales.
For the HOW I think you need Varki’s MORT theory:
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-030-25466-7_6
This defines norm dunc
One collection of such related features is our remarkable ability for ignoring or denying reality in the face of clear facts, a high capacity for self-deception and false beliefs, overarching optimism bias, and irrational risk-taking behavior (herein collectively called “reality denial”). Such traits should be maladaptive for reproductive success when they first appear as consistent features in individuals of any species.
Interesting. Human awareness necessary under the theory of mind seems to have developed 100,000 or 200,000 years ago. There is definitely an optimism bias. We can’t imagine that bad things will happen to us.
The researchers also found that almost 60 percent of the people with antibodies HAD NO IDEA THEY HAD EVEN HAD COVID AT ALL. Meanwhile, while more than half the people who said they had had Covid had no antibodies. (Welcome to the plague so severe most halfway healthy adults don’t even know they’ve had it.)
The study strongly suggests that many people are using previous Covid diagnoses – either real or imagined – to help explain away common physical symptoms such as joint pain or cough. It also suggests that actually being infected Covid is far less risky than thinking you have been infected with Covid for many people.
The researchers concluded by explaining that people who claim they have long Covid may need help “to identify cognitive and behavioral mechanisms that may be targeted to relieve the symptoms.” Which is a very polite way of putting the truth.
Long Covid doesn’t exist, volume one zillion
A huge French study shows BELIEVING you had Covid is associated with many later symptoms. But ACTUALLY having had Covid isn’t associated with any (except loss of sense of smell).
The Journal of the American Medical Association has another stunning paper out, this one on post-Covid symptoms in almost 27,000 French adults.
Researchers asked people to report whether they had had Covid and whether they had any of 18 lasting symptoms like insomnia, fatigue, or cough. They found that self-reported Covid was very strongly associated with nearly every symptom.
But the scientists then went a step further.
They also had Sars-Cov-2 antibody test results for the people they had surveyed, so they didn’t have to depend on self-reported Covid. They knew who really had had Covid and who had not.
They then compared self-reported symptoms in people with antibodies – that is, people who had actually been infected and recovered from Covid – to the general population. And they found no difference in almost any symptom.
Covid was not a risk factor for chest pain, or breathing difficulties, or trouble focusing, or stomach pain, or any of the many, many other complaints that long Covid “patients” and interest groups say are real. There was one interesting exception; people with Covid antibodies did have a much higher rate of anosmia, losing one’s sense of smell. Because anosmia is a known and lasting side effect, it serves as a useful control of sorts.
https://alexberenson.substack.com/p/long-covid-doesnt-exist-volume-one
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F2e4083f6-3535-461f-a8fa-590eea3b6e80_750x605.jpeg
looks like caps time again in the junk mail section of OFW
Interesting — putting my media hat on and calling the school where the kid died of a heart attack… initial comment was regurgitation of the MSM … she did not die of Covid….
To which I respond yes I believe that is correct but I do understand she had the Pfizer shot (I am documenting deaths in children post shot…) so I am trying to determine if the shot was administered at the school and if you had a pop up clinic….
She did not die from a Pfizer shot – that has been reported in the media.
Yes I saw that but there has been on autopsy so how would anyone know that?
No comment.
Is there anyone in a position to comment?
I will have the principal call you back. Do you have a deadline?
Ideally within the day but it’s not urgent as this is an ongoing story about children dying after having the Pfizer shot.
This is the sort of thing I do as I wait for some real entertainment .. when Lebanon blows… I’ll likely come off the Taunting.
That said – this is a real media enquiry … I’m telling them I am a freelancer for OFW (and a couple of other outlets) and I am working on a story for my editors norm and dunc.
As long as debt is extended to the energy company’s and the standards for solvency are malleable some if not all of the low EROI energy resources will continue to be extracted and refined. Just as a humans life can be extended by artificial life support so can zombie energy companies. The physical world has limits but as we have seen they can be bypassed for a while.
Of course we are all glad for that even if its rather uncomfortable to have the exact mechanism and timeline of the end of industrial civilization left undefined. At some point something will break that cant be fixed by money creation but so far it has worked even as we create sums previously unimaginable. Core inflation just came out at multi decade highs which in times past would have signaled a fire alarm and higher interest rates but we have a rather non fire alarm term of taper. Zero interest rates are the life support of the means of energy extraction life support via the banks and “debt”. No one believes that the life support will voluntarily be ended. Not the banks. Not the markets. And most importantly not Gail. smily face GIF. Patches for life support will be put in place as needed with money just as long as it holds any value other than its thermal value of 8 btu a note.
The much overused term resilience certainly holds to the beliefs about money as a source of energy and power. Those beliefs are very resilient indeed. No wonder it pretty much has always worked in our lifetimes. If there is “inflation” you just need to get your hands on more of the stuff and luckily it can be created from thin air or scammed or earned seems to be the philosophy of the vast majority of people. If there is a small matter here or there where money doesnt work its because of the pandemic or a supply chain problem. While the term supply chain is entering the publics vocabulary its mostly as annoyance a flea biting a buffalo with no real real significance. Supply chain problems are certainly not in the publics perception as a symptom of the end of industrial civilization.
Thank you for the article Gail!
Crescendo? Drums to war / “re-set” already?
There are some strange overtones just coming out these very days, specifically the Chinese (official?) call to stock up on food and various consumables (and people evidently hoarding in supermarkets), plus footage of their large hastily moving in daylight* mil convoys (missile trucks and tanks) is indeed puzzling..
Still, this might be mostly domestic focused drum beat action,
but it also well could be the real thing.
__
* that’s usually not to be performed in the wide open if possible..
Few more to add on the pile of very strange – unusually escalating things, RT just ran “the story” of supposedly lost, found and pre-dawn gov bouncers raid retrieval attempt in that diary of Bidety’s daughter affair. In comparison, how many western msm mentioned that at all? Yes, they made similar moves before (slightly favoring Donald), but these were very mild punches against Hitlary.. while this seems as way different angle and territory to pursue..
ADVChina, YT channel consisting of the two guys that used to live in China for combined 25 years or so, Winston and CMilk, recently posted a video re coal production in China. They have a picture of what was once the world’s largest coal mine, 500 m deep and 11 square km in area, but it is now almost out of coal. But their energy analysis is limited.
At the end of the video they say that China’s coal production is increasing, whereas if you look at that super huge hole in the ground that used to produce lots of coal but no longer does, this might indicate that the days of producing easy to access, cheap coal are over for China.
China’s Coal Lie – We Went to China’s Largest Coal Mine (about 18 minutes)
These two guys are re-known and pretty awful* (~five eyes~ countries agents / propagandists).. That aside, the mainland coal issue is real but the twist is a bit different as China is betting on their surface coal deposits in the remote deserts, liquid metal cooled power stations in situ – extending very long HV lines from there to the agglomerations.. How much practical to scale that up from existing pilot into actual multi TWhs output who knows..
__
* e.g. dissing their Chinese in-law relatives (marriage)
“These two guys are re-known and pretty awful* (~five eyes~ countries agents / propagandists)”
Can you provide some links to back that up?
I watched “their productions” over several yrs – it’s all there to see if you are not blind..
I have always found their videos very interesting, the ones where they were travelling all over China on their motor bikes, filming wherever they went. I must have missed the 5-eyes ones. So you can’t be specific then?
(They) pretend to make honest attempt to long term stay in the country as mix in, start families. But suddenly it all turns into one way negative messaging, incl. dissing their own new relatives.. disgusting.
Hopefully, I don’t have to explain to you (again) this screams very high probability of low (er) intel operation scheme, chiefly in the propaganda dept. Simply they activated these two boyz (delayed) or just contracted along the way – most probably the case with one of them the more simpleton case..
Watch some of Nathan Rich’s youtube channel… specifically the “SerpentZA exposed as fraud” video from 2 years ago. It provides some background on Winston that may or may not make you see him in a different light.
regards
Winston (SerpentZA) is South African.
” incl. dissing their own new relatives..”
In all the videos I have watched, I have never seen or heard this. People here can watch and see for themselves.
However, there is a good reason of why anyone would do that in principal. The CCP has a very solid track record of going after family members left in China. I cannot think of anyone that the CCP would more like to get revenge on than Winston and CMilk. The best they can do is be negative about their relatives in the hope that the CCP will be less harsh.
pharma 2…
Similar situation .. unable to provide me with the info I am after… he asks if I still want the jab… I laugh and say I am not putting that garbage into my body and walk out…
He actually comes chasing after me to apologize/explain that he is not a mass murderer…. he then informs me that his auntie in Asia (he is from Malaysia) has died from covid … and that if she had had the jab she’d not have died…
I tell him that’s too bad about his auntie and ask him if he’s looked at Singapore – most jabbed – record infections – record deaths – then inform him that actually no if she had the jab that would not have saved her.
That bounces off his brain like sonor waves off a submarine.
I mention the 3 people I know with wrecked hearts and in another attempt to demonstrate that he cares about the people he is murdering says — I have a few people who have had heart problems after the injection … and I am following up with them to make sure they are ok…
There are only 30k people in QT… under 12s are non eligible for the death shot + some have refused so let’s say 20k have the shot…. there are perhaps 8 chemists in town + multiple clinics + multiple popups + you can get the shot at any KFC Burger King or McDonalds (administered by the janitor)….
So this guy has probably not shot up more than a 1000 – probably a lot less than that…
And he’s got ‘a few’ … let’s assume a ‘few’ is more than 3 … or he’d say… let’s go with 5….
Hmmm…
I leave it with … I am sure you have a computer inside… why don’t you go back in and search Singapore Covid Record Infections and Deaths… and remember they are 85% vaxxed… the only zombies over there unvaxxed are pretty much children… and children don’t die….
He walks away and says something about his auntie again and says good luck if you get covid mate… the vaccine could save you (I’m thinking of saying f789 you auntie .. maybe she should have not smoked and crammed so much hawker garbage into her gaping maw… but I don’t)
Joel Kallman, the 54-year-old Oracle APEX software developer who designed the CDC vaccine tracking system, is dead after the mRNA shot
https://newsrescue.com/oracle-vp-joel-kallman-dies-of-covid-after-receiving-second-vaccine-injection/
hahahahahahahahaha…. sucks to be him … only he’s dead so he doesn’t know it… but surely he had a brief moment where he thought …hmmmm…. maybe those anti-covid-vaxxers have a point…
eddy must definetly be awake
its covid ttttttttttime
Gold Coast soccer community rallies around girl, 14, after suffering heart attack on field
Ava’s teammates and opponents have been offered counselling for witnessing what Mucci described as an “awful scene”.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/7news.com.au/sport/soccer/gold-coast-soccer-community-rallies-around-girl-14-after-suffering-heart-attack-on-field-c-4269085.amp
New Zealand’s Chief Coroner has issued a statement saying the death of an Auckland teenager “does not appear” to be “linked to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine”.
Despite the Prime Minister last week shutting down rumours that a St Mary’s College student’s recent death was linked to having a vaccine, unfounded speculation remains rife on social media.
“Based on the information available to date, it does not appear that the death in question is linked to the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine,” she said.
“However, this issue will be investigated carefully by the coroner and pertinent information will be requested from various agencies, including the COVID-19 Vaccination Independent Safety Monitoring Board.
“It could be a number of months before the final post mortem report is received and all information relating to this death is obtained from relevant agencies. The coroner’s findings in relation to this point will be made available once the inquiry has been completed.”
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/09/coronavirus-auckland-teenager-s-death-not-linked-to-vaccine-coroner.html
hahahaha… healthy kids die all the time from heart attacks….
“It could be a number of months before the final post mortem report is received”
Shouldn’t this take one evening, a few days at most? Unless the plan is for everyone to forget about it.
ST JOSEPH’S CATHOLIC
SCHOOL
TAKAPUNA
PRINCIPAL’S MESSAGE
Dear Whanau and Parents
Our prayers today are with the St Mary’s College, Ponsonby, community. Isabella Alexander, a Year 13 student, died this morning, due to a suspected heart attack – not COVID. This is an absolute tragedy for Isabella’s whanau, friends and school community. Please keep them all in your prayers.
Eternal rest grant unto her, O Lord, and let perpetual light shine upon her. May her soul and the souls of all the faithful departed, through the mercy of God, rest in peace.
hahahahaha… I am posting a noose to the parents later today… hopefully they know what to do with it.
So… Fast Eddy went into town yesterday for a hair cut… M Fast asked him to pick up some hay fever tabs… ok ya.. Fast can take time out of his busy schedule to do that….
Into the pharmacy goes Fast… he pays for the tabs then says hey — I see you do the Injections here… I am still not decided on this as I’ve heard about some people having heart damage and stuff… the lady quiet vehemently insists that the only side effects are a sore arm…
So I says … well my mate has myocarditis as do two other people I know… have you got any sort of reading material that outlines the possible side effects that I can take a look at?
NO!
no??? You don’t have anything?
NO! (in a combative tone…)
Maybe there is something in the box with the vials that I can look at?
NO! You cannot look at the box.
But why not? It’s my injection if I want to take it so surely I can have a look at the insert.
Extremely combative now – NO – you cannot.
Oh so you will give me the shot but you won’t give me any info on the side effects other than the sore arm…
I stand back for a second and look a this frothing maniac… then I say — I’ve reconsidered due to your poor attitude… I’d like to a refund on the tablets… she shoves 25 bucks across the counter. I say thanks and leave
story continues…
This article is probably the best that’s appears on OFW…. added to the CEP… imagine the reaction if you had suggested that the vaccines were purposed to kill everyone!!!
They might have stoned you to death.
COMPASSIONATE EXTINCTION PLAN (CEP)
1. Every country on the planet is on board with the Injections. Even Sweden. When have all countries aligned on any issue? Never.
2. Not a single MSM outlet is interviewing any of the expert dissenters – Yeadon, Bridle, Montagnier, Bossche etc… and the mainstream social media platforms are blocking them.
Why?
Conventional Oil peaked in 2005 http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/C-Cdec141.png
Shale in 2018.
According to Rystad, the current resource replacement ratio for conventional resources is only 16 percent. Only 1 barrel out of every 6 consumed is being replaced with new resources
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Biggest-Oil-Gas-Discoveries-Of-2019.html
Shale binge has spoiled US reserves, top investor warns Financial Times. https://energyskeptic.com/2021/the-end-of-fracked-shale-oil/
Shale boss says US has passed peak oil | Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/320d09cb-8f51-4103-87d7-0dd164e1fd25
THE PERFECT STORM : The economy is a surplus energy equation, not a monetary one, and growth in output (and in the global population) since the Industrial Revolution has resulted from the harnessing of ever-greater quantities of energy. But the critical relationship between energy production and the energy cost of extraction is now deteriorating so rapidly that the economy as we have known it for more than two centuries is beginning to unravel https://ftalphaville-cdn.ft.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Perfect-Storm-LR.pdf
Our fossil fuel energy predicament, including why the correct story is rarely told https://ourfiniteworld.com/2021/11/10/our-fossil-fuel-energy-predicament-including-why-the-correct-story-is-rarely-told/
“The global economy was facing the worst collapse since the second world war as coronavirus began to strike in March, well before the height of the crisis, according to the latest Brookings-FT tracking index. “The index comes as the IMF prepares to hold virtual spring meetings this week, when it will release forecasts showing the deepest contraction for the global economy since the 1930s great depression. https://www.ft.com/content/9ac5eb8e-4167-4a54-9b39-dab48c29ac6c
Collapse Imminent: https://thephilosophicalsalon.com/a-self-fulfilling-prophecy-systemic-collapse-and-pandemic-simulation/
The Illusion of Stability, the Inevitability of Collapse http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-illusion-of-stability-inevitability.html
Fed is sharply increasing the amount of help it is providing to the financial system https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/23/fed-repo-overnight-operations-level-to-increase-to-120-billion.html Banks did not trust each other – similar situation when Lehman collapsed
Oil Gluts – do NOT indicate we have found more oil. We just pumped what’s left too fast.
Summary In 2019 a second Perfect Storm was approaching – the central banks had been doing ‘whatever it takes’ for over a decade…. Essentially nothing was off the table — throw the kitchen sink at pushing GFC2.0 into the future. In 2019 the guns were blazing but the beast was no longer held at bay…
What do you do when you are burning far more oil than you discover — and your efforts to offset the impact of expensive to produce oil push you to the edge of the cliff? You can accept your fate and allow the beast to shove you into the abyss…. Or you can take the ‘nuclear option’ and shut down as much of the economy as possible, preserve remaining oil and pump in trillions of dollars of life support to keep the system feebly alive.
Punchline: The problem global leaders face is that if you unleash the nuclear option without some sort of cover, the sheeple and the markets would be thrown into a panic and you risk blowing things up prematurely. So you need a reason for putting the global economy on ice — one that does not spook the masses – one that is big enough to justify such epic amounts of stimulus and extreme policies — and one that allows you to explain ‘this is just temporary – once this is gone — we will get back to normal’
A pandemic is the perfect cover.
End Game – Covid was foisted on us as cover for the response to peak oil (if we don’t slow the burn oil prices go through the roof and we collapse) but it is also being used to convince billions to be Injected. The Injection is meant to cause extremely deadly variants similar to Marek’s this .. only worse because we are deploying into a pandemic https://www.pbs.org/newshour/science/tthis-chicken-vaccine-makes-virus-dangerous.
“Mass infection prevention and mass vaccination with leaky Covid-19 vaccines in the midst of the pandemic can only breed highly infectious variants.” https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/
French virologist and Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier called mass vaccination against the coronavirus during the pandemic “unthinkable” and a historical blunder that is “creating the variants” and leading to deaths from the disease.
The Vaccines and Boosters will Result in a Catastrophic Outcome – From a scientific viewpoint it is, therefore, difficult to understand how booster immunizations using vaccines which are not evolution-proof could prevent a highly mutable virus from escaping neutralizing anti-S Abs while driving the pandemic in a catastrophic direction, both in Israel and worldwide. How can the WHO stand by and watch as this additional experiment unfolds, soon to be followed by other countries? https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/what-happens-if-israel-fails-the-stress-test
The reason for this is that 8B people need cheap oil to live. They would starve without it. And 8B people without food would result in epic starvation, violence, rape and cannibalism. Industrial civilization ends soon after peak oil. Unfortunately we also have 4000 spent fuel ponds that will boil off and release toxic substances for centuries. These facilities cannot be controlled with computers and energy. So even the few remaining hunters and gatherer tribes will die as they consume these toxins in the food, air and water.
The PTB understand all of this and that is WHY every leader is on board with the Injections. There is NO way out of this — so they have decided to mitigate the suffering as much as possible by putting us down and here is the mechanism https://www.geertvandenbossche.org/post/why-the-ongoing-mass-vaccination-experiment-drives-a-rapid-evolutionary-response-of-sars-cov-2.
Excellent summary. Agree completely. I have been following all this since February 2020, when I realised that it was the most important thing in my life. In everyone’s life …
I struggle to keep up with the volume of information, disinformation and so on. Information is not knowledge. Knowledge comes from distilling all the information, huge amounts of continual research, lots of thinking and double checking and above all keeping an open mind.
And yes it’s fatiguing, even boring at times. But it’s about survival.
The whole thing is so complicated that I don’t think it’s possible for someone new to the subject to reach the right level of understanding. And there are so many posting opinions on the internet, but who have only a partial picture of what is going on.
Every new piece of “information” I add to “what I think I know”. I have allowed myself to hold more than one opinion, sometimes entertaining contradictory opinions at the very same time, the only way I can deal with this.
Slide 9 is interesting. It shows very clearly just how little energy (almost negligible in the big picture) comes from nuclear, but it is going to cause a hell of a lot of damage in the not-too-distant future.
Also interesting that M. King Hubbert was one of the very few (his moniker was Minority of One, apparently. ‘The Oracle of Oil’ by Mason Inman. Coincidence.) for whom peak oil was obvious and relatively imminent, but he never thought for a moment that peak uranium might be an issue?
Peak uranium is complicated. If you master breeding technology, you can always enrich depleted uranium (of which there is a lot) with plutonium and make mixed oxide fuel. Then there is the fact that spent fuel will probably become recoverable (it is still 95% or so depleted uranium after burning) in 300 years or so. Then there is the possibility of breeding 233U to enrich thorium. So it is not a cut and dried peak like oil.
Mind you, I’ve been reading about this sort of stuff for decades but the technology still doesn’t seem to have been mastered as most build are relatively conventional. Is it a bit like fusion power? Still, if nuclear does ever take off again, you never know what desperation may lead to.
What has not been mastered? Russians have breeders (the whole cycle) on industrial scale already for several yrs, and the French(or CAN) discarded (or stopped) similar very advanced project some time ago, but very likely could restart it (finalize it).. Not sure about China, but they can easily license it.. if interested enough..
Correct. The Russians are at that point. It is the West that is not. Yes, there is an outside chance the French could get there too. The five eyes not so much.
Well, that’s not what I’ve read though I don’t actively seek the info. Where are they and what are their capacities? I get the impression they are not being built as a preference. Not one of several nuclear projects in the UK are breeders, as I understand it.
So uranium supply is a potential problem for nuclear, especially if it becomes a key part of providing energy for the world.
In terms of .ru the project was already researched and designed, but stalled during the Soviet collapse sequence, then they got the megaton-2-megawatts deals, hence uranium fuel for conventional NPPs was not pressing issue for a decade and more. They finalized that breeder on industrial scale with delay during 2000s when Vlad+ boyz resurrect (good timing helped too) the country from the abyss. It’s all googlable in terms of schematics, key design and performance data etc..
And as alluded before it was not a top priority during pushing the boundaries to accessing hydrocarbons on their territory (export revenue vehicle). Perhaps it makes only border line sense in terms of overall ERoEI even up to this point.. who knows..
But they are definitively active in NPPs in general, floating smaller reactor platforms in outlier coastal regions etc.
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Foundation-set-in-place-for-BREST-reactor
Hahahaha… so little energy … and so much spent fuel!!!! hahahahaha….
you triggered eddy’s h and a keys
his favourites
We are Fu**ed…in other words…thank you Gail for the recap
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QIyKmqEdgR4
Honest Government Ads from Australia…YouTube…
There was a ,70 minutes clip of Rickover stating that we would end up destroying ourselves with nukes…and he would forgo everything to put it back on the bottle
You mention China. I have done some research on fuel consumption and found that Diesel consumption started to peak in 2014::
31/10/2021
China peak diesel
https://crudeoilpeak.info/china-peak-diesel
I looked at BPs analysis of diesel for China, found on its “Oil Regional Consumption” sheet. It shows China’s consumption of “diesel/gasoil” has been flat since 2013. Most other categories of oil consumption have increased in China. “Others,” in particular, is way higher. I wonder if there has been a change in what is being reported.
“Other fuels” are mainly used in the chemical industry. BP puts 600 kb/d of these other fuels into Naphtha. JODI reports monthly data and rarely adjusts them retrospectively. BP spends 6 months to calculate and reconcile annual data. That diesel consumption has peaked is important as diesel is an indicator of economic activities
“when people figure out the shortage is permanent, walmart’s storage won’t last 3 hours”
That’s a good one Norm. 🙂
It’s a delicate balance of confidence that goods will continue to be replenished.
When the confidence dial is slightly positive, all is ok.
But when it swings just a bit negative, all hell breaks loose and the network effect exacerbates the situation.
You fail to mention the ‘subsidies’ to fossil fuels throughout the world. In Canada alone, our “green” federal government has given some $18 Billions to oil and gas companies over the past few years. Much more throughout the rest of the world.
When oil exporters charge their own citizens a lower price for oil than the market price in the world market, this is considered a subsidy. This practice has pretty much disappeared, because oil prices have been so low for so long.
I believe that there is also a little bit of subsidy for low income homeowners in the US Northeast who continue to heat with oil, to make the oil more affordable for them. This is considered a subsidy for oil companies.
When you net these subsidies out of the taxes oil companies pay, the effect is tiny. Oil companies still pay large amounts of taxes, even when prices are low, because of the many ways they are taxed.
Gail, Thanks for the insightful presentation.
Take care
Hi Gail, thanks for the post. One potential fix: you show the Seneca Cliff curve as figure 6, but I think you meant to show the family of curves from the World 3 Model in The Limits to Growth: the 30 year update. Maybe show both, but that may interfere with the figure numbering.
I was trying to make the presentation as easy to understand as possible and keep it within a 50 minute time limit.
Fairly often in the past, I have given presentations that “went over the heads” of most of those attending. Graphs need to be fairly simple and not too many in quantity. I figured that even this amount of detail might “max out” some of the audience’s willingness to listen and understand what I was saying.
It’s really difficult to explain things to MOREONS
You almost have to use baby talk
the shape of your comforter is obvious eddy
Thanks for your new post. In relation to Hubert’s graph, we are seeing countries that announce their commitment to nuclear, I have seen China especially and also France. What future does this have?
Certainly a lot to unpack – it’s not one thing: traditional NPPs (and lack of uranium), breeders for the long haul (~2 countries only), small reactors enough (if huge depop is reality), some would include even the allegedly promising breakthroughs in fusion there..
I don’t think that electricity of any kind, by itself, has a possibility of doing very much, certainly not within a very long time period. This is a problem for nuclear, if other fuels are failing.
China can see that coal is a dead end, and they are running out of the ability to import oil and natural gas. They can see that nuclear has some possibilities, especially if plants aren’t overbuilt to the extent that they are in the West. So, China is trying nuclear.
I see that Macron is talking about adding nuclear again. It should be obvious to anyone in Europe that wind and solar aren’t working very well. France did as well as anyone with nuclear. It sounds like France may be looking into small modular reactors.
Great post. One nit: the term is Mainstream Media (MSM) – https://www.dictionary.com/e/acronyms/msm/
Thanks! The advantage of the internet is that I can fix things like that after the fact.
Shale oil under Paris? I had to look that up. It took me to an article on 2011 that said oil was currently at $100 a barrel. What brought the prices of oil back down at that point? I don’t think there was recession.
Oil prices have dropped dramatically since 2011. They were even briefly negative.
Oil prices seem to depend heavily on the actions of the Central Bank and Quantitive Easing. Shutdowns related to COVID badly hurt oil prices also.
Great presentation, Gail. You are worth our attention. It’s time for everyone interested in surviving the dark times ahead to organize within their communities. Anyone who waits to see what happens or for government to come to their rescue will regret their failure to act.
What should they do?
Keep in mind — the end of energy is a permanent situation — storing a few months of food and water won’t help much
Then there are the … spent fuel ponds….
i QUITE AGREE. Organization and a vital, uncentralized way of living on 90% less energy that is sophisticated and proactive would help. The problem is the stubborn refusal (or inability?) of people to think or face reality.
If we wage war on climate change almost anything can be done. People need sufficient food and shelter, several billion people survive using 10% of the energy Americans use. We can start there. So the economy collapses, if the essential people continue to work everyone else can stay home. Cancel all debts and rents, everyone who has a home or apartment can stay there, the homeless can move into empty homes or apartments. Millions will have to be relocated to substance farms with some larger scale farms getting fossil fuels to produce enough food for city people.
I am sure the goverment as people formulating plans for this or at least they should.
I can’t wait until Fast Eddy wakes up and responds to this comment.
he only comments in his sleep
He sleeps?
a somnambulist
yes I await with a happy smile on my face
“…if the essential people continue to work everyone else can stay home.”
I’m sure the “essential people” would love that arrangement and be highly motivated to uphold it indefinitely.
i hope you’re joking
if you’re not, what will the stay at homes eat?
I’ve been inclined towards sarcasm lately. I’ve also been living dangerously by posting sarcastic comments without a “/sarc” tag. Sometimes the messaging gets across, sometimes it doesn’t.
What are you talking about!?!? Go out in the middle of the day and you will find half of the population already doing that!! I think I am one of the few on here that actually works!!!
You must be one of the “essential people,” Sam.
I work full-time as well, but my employer didn’t deem me “essential” during the scamdemic lockdowns. I kept ticking away remotely, safe from all the danger during that time.
Fighting Covid China locked down entire cities, essential workers delivered food. One masked person from each home was allowed to take in the allotment for that home. My youngest son fixes iPhones, he can stay home. My older son manages installation contracts for utility installations, no more gas fired co generation units will be sold but wind turbines and solar farms will be installed, he can work from home. My oldest daughter teaches collage, she can work from home and mostly does. My other daughter is a hair dresser, she could work from home if people walked or biked there. Her husband works for the city water department, he is essential and would have to go to work.
Americans are not as compliant as the Chinese so there might be push-back.
Slavery, Daddio.
No one has to work, people who refuse will simply not get food shipments. Did you see what I said about getting drafted, were we all slaves? Many of my generation died going where they sent. As did those of my dad’s generation, were they slaves? If, if we are going to war against climate change and living without fossil fuels many sacrifices will have to be made. Or we can just keep doing what we are doing now. I did not say I was going to force anyone to do anything but if I was in charge I would start with that. Your plan is what?
Extinction – by Devil Covid (aka Human Markeks). It’s the only reasonable plan.
I take it you were not drafted, You go and do what they demand you do. Some get to sit in the air conditioned radio rooms and some get sweat in sweltering engine rooms, guess where they put me. Martial law and everyone is drafted. Some sit home and some grow and deliver food. Every month they can trade off.
You have any better ideas?
There are already shortages of fertilizers (made with hydrocarbons). You can’t grow enough food to feed everyone without them…the soil is dead from pesticides. And those you tell to stay at home will not just sit and starve. They will go and take the food they need from whoever has it to feed their kids. Zombie hordes.
I would not hesitate to put a bullet into the head of a doomie prepper farmer while he’s weeding his garden and growing MY food…
Survival of the Fittest… hahahahaha… bullet … in the brain… Bullet in the Brain…
The only thing is MOREONS have Pea Sized Brains… and I am not that good of a shot.. so I’ll aim for the heart instead hahaha… shoot em dead… to get their bread
is this the same level of ‘would not hesitate’ that led you to ‘not hesitate’ to go screaming into a medical centre, yelling that they were plotting to kill you?
Oh I forgot—FE does not exist outside OFW.
BS though, exists everywhere. Proxy BS I call it.
Be careful of that ‘ha’ thing though.
Repetituve strain injury can be difficult to treat—especially if docs are trying to bump you off.
(would that come under ‘community service’?)
Remember how Son of Sam got his orders from a dog…. I get mine from Fast Eddy…
There are sheep (you) and their are wolves (me)… that’s why you spent your life writing instruction booklets and you are finishing it up with an endless series of injections …
And I… well… we know what I’ve been up to…
as long as your comments keep coming eddy, i don’t really mind if they make no sense
it’s the total I want
thanks
You’ll enjoy this … my complaint against the doctor who told me I should inject to two kids here because so many are dying from covid has been rejected after a hearing… because the Ministry recommends the jabs….
My response:
You have completely ignored the nature of the complaint (not unexpected as this is a clown show run by incompetent lackey morons from start to finish) — as I have stated – she told me I should get these two kids vaccinated because Covid was killing so many children and refused to provide supporting evidence of this after promising to do so.
What part of that do you not understand????
She said NOTHING about the Ministry recommendation – I am obviously aware of the Ministry recommendation, but I am also aware of the epic numbers of vaccine injuries in children. And that was the purpose of my consultation.
This is a joke. The lot of you have the blood of every single child who gets damaged by the Pfizer shots in NZ.
Hopefully when the dust settles on this disaster there will be a new Nuremberg trial and those who have ‘only been doing what the government told them’ even though they know they are doing great harm… are prosecuted.
https://cdn.substack.com/image/fetch/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fbucketeer-e05bbc84-baa3-437e-9518-adb32be77984.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F0bf2066d-3aed-492b-a1fd-9342c4b3ce13_750x1334.png
I suspect the US isn’t ready yet to impose martial law and carry out your idea. Perhaps martial law is waiting in the wings though, ready to be deployed once civil government fails.
Until then, our civil leaders are encouraging us energy intensive consumers to play the “vaccine” roulette game. Some of us energy intensive consumers will survive the injections, and some will not.
Perhaps their idea is this:
Random damage caused by the “vaccines” will reduce consumption and energy intensive consumers. They’ll play fair, in terms of not deliberately targeting anyone or any particular group with damaging shots. The program will be entirely voluntary – some coercion, yes, but legally speaking entirely voluntary. People will choose to play. Those that die will reduce their individual drain on finite resources, leaving more for the rest of us. Carried out over time (years) this program may reduce the consumption rate of a given population while simultaneously preventing too dramatic a drop in standards of living for those that survive.
Some questions come to mind:
How many people can a civilization afford to lose and still function? What about the US? How many people could the US afford to lose and still function? Does the US have a “population problem?” Does the US have an “aging population problem?” Does the US have an “obesity problem?” A “diabetes problem?” etc.
The US population is an energy intensive population compared to the rest of the world, as you’ve illustrated. So, the question becomes would leadership rush toward martial law, and separate the “essential” and “non-essential” into city dwellers and farm dwellers, or would they instead ask “how many people in the US could we afford to lose without wrecking everything? How could we best maintain everyone’s standard of living while reducing the number of energy intensive consumers?”
No one wants to give up what they have, not even for the “greater good,” or to combat “climate change.” Politicians know this, which is why they’ll never ask their voters to sacrifice their standard of living.
But people can be scared into giving up what they have through a manufactured viral “pandemic” narrative; people can be scared into injecting a mystery substance that may take everything from them.
Which is more palatable?
Scenario 1: “Everyone! You are now under martial law! Half of you will work in food production this month while the other half remains in the cities! Next month the two groups will switch!”
Or
Scenario 2: “Everyone! There’s a deadly virus on the loose! We urge you to take the latest experimental, Emergency Use Authorization injections on offer! Some may experience adverse reactions to these injections; some may die! But if you play the “vaccine” roulette game you will be allowed to continue doing the energy intensive things you love! You can have “normal” back again, so long as you survive!”
In scenario 1, poverty and drudgery are certainties – there is no escape and there is no hiding it from the populace. In scenario 2, people at least presume to have the chance at maintaining their standard of living, albeit with a risk to their health. “I’m strong and healthy, I’ll take the jab! Then I can have my old life back; travel again, enjoy restaurants, concerts, etc. I’m confident I won’t be one of the unlucky ones to suffer an adverse reaction or death. I’ll take that bet.”
>>>>>>>How many people can a civilization afford to lose and still function?<<<<
effectively none.
The recent pandemic has killed a fraction of 1% but panicked the rest into near catastrophe. That may still be ongoing.
In the middle ages, plague might kill 30%—but not affect basic living much because it was primarily agricultural–whereas our living is technically complex–so much more prone to collapse.
in the face of social collapse, martial law is inevitable.
if social collapse has gone beyond that level, the next stage down is mob law.
**********
city dwellers are supported only by 'farm dwellers'..
even considering that scenario would mean those on the farms would effectively be slaves.
if then you have slaves, there must be overseers. The overseers must be supported by the surplus energy of the slaves. I can assure you that city dwellers would not change places with them
now—
In such a society—would you be prepared to be an overseer?
If not–what would entitle you to be a city dweller?
Someone has got to be in 'control' of it all. Overseers don't enjoy a good reputation.
Pol Pot tried it–didn't work out too well in the end.
Nasty while it lasted.
Bear in mind that the food you are able to produce is directly proportional to the muscle effort you put in, in an average temperate climate.
A purely agricultural economy can only support about 2% of excess weight of people. Under no circumstances can it carry 50/50
Just running stuff past my logicometer here.
“How many people can a civilization afford to lose and still function?”
“effectively none”
I think that that is a good point. We have been brain washed into thinking that the health care system has solutions to all of our problems. We are told that we need to listen to authorities regarding what to do. There is a pill or immunization for everything that goes wrong. Back when I was working with medical malpractice insurance, we noted this phenomenon as well. The cost of physician malpractice insurance increased from close to $0 to many thousands of dollars per year as more and more was expected of them, over the years.
In order for people to be willing to part with a large share of their income for health insurance, they have to believe that physicians and the healthcare industry have a great deal to offer them. Also, for people past retirement age, very often their only contact with the outside (other than their families) is visits to the health care industry. They look forward to visits to the doctor and other health providers and plan their lives around them. Often, elderly people’s only topics of conversation are their health and perhaps the latest television shows.
In America, people have an amazing number of prescriptions. My father (who is no longer alive) would say that that Americans have an average of one prescription for each decade of life.
With this kind of focus, US citizen start to develop a reverence for the health care system and its spokespeople that should be reserved for religious prophets. This is a major distortion of the system.
Somehow, I missed out on most of this. I grew up with a father who would constantly complain about the other doctors (never read journals, do unnecessary appendectomies and hysterectomies) and would talk about the influence of the pharmaceutical companies. Later, working in medical malpractice, I discovered how many adverse events there really are.
My husband and I stay strictly out of the healthcare system, to the extent possible. Our prescription list is pretty close to zero. We figure that diet and exercise are a whole lot more important than anything that the healthcare system provides.
you are right about staying clear of docs Gail
It’s worked so far–but I do accept that i’ve been truly lucky healthwise in keeping things together at this age
“>>>>>>>How many people can a civilization afford to lose and still function?<<<<
effectively none."
What about age groups? Say, children, teens, adults, elderly? How many of each age group could a civilization afford to lose and still function?
Are some age groups more valuable to a civilization than others?
What about lifespan? People used to die at earlier ages in the past, right? Today, people live longer thanks to modern medicine and technology advancements. Are people still useful to civilization at an advanced age?
At which point in one's lifespan is one most valuable to civilization?
Do those running the show of civilization take these questions in to consideration?
That doesn’t matter — the issue is that we have burned up the low hanging energy … so civilization is finished…
BAU is finished.
And that means we are going extinct.
Gail – perhaps an article discussing how a reset is impossible – at any level — because the energy to power this will not be available…
As we know … the last dozen years only happened because we rung oil out of a stone using epic debt and other gimmicks… and now that is failing …
So pray tell how we continue to squeeze oil out of the stone — going forward when the financial system has vapourized… supply chains have imploded… and the world is experiencing a cataclysmic implosion with epic violence and chaos in every country.
The concept of life after BAU is ludicrous.
Dunning Kruger is in full force with those who believer otherwise
though tis painful
in general terms i agree with eddy
American Moon? Coming around….???
to try to cover a few points as logically as i can. I wouldn’t presume to be ‘right’.
First off–nobody is ‘running the show of civilisation’. We brought ourselves to where we are through greed. We chose to turn the planet into cash, and pay ourselves ever-increasing wages by setting fire to it.
It just ‘looks’ as if there’s reason behind it. Apart from the profit motive, there isn’t one.
yes–people died earlier in earlier times–but that misses the point. If the average age of death was, say, 50, then the structure of society was geared to that.
People worked until they died, generally. They were effectively slaves who got paid (just)
I am well past my sellby date (though not my use by date yet). I occupy space that should be used by somebody else. I still think of myself as useful to society–i took an elderly friend for his booster today!
My grandfather, born in 1874 worked in the mines all his life (from the age of 12), smoked and drank heavily, and died at 82- he was unusual for his time.
But we didn’t have to bankrupt our economy keeping all old people alive at any cost–the same appllied to weaker babies (for example) or individuals with chronic illnesses.
And I don’t think you could get away with bumping off the first born anymore.
People live longer now through ‘technologies’, agreed, but those technologies have much to do with getting fresh water in and wastes out. And the availability of energy to demolish slums and built better housing. The industrial revolution provided the power to do that..
That has been an anomaly of recent times
The rest centres around delivering more and more energy for diminishing returns. The energy input for a heart transplant on (say) a garbage collector delivers (in human population terms) a poor return on the investment, when compared to a fresh water pumping station.
But the surgeon gets a feelgood factor. The garbage collector gets to live a while longer.
You cant do a heart transplant without colossal energy input.
But if you lost a vast swathe of young people now, then there would be no structure to take on the tasks of the aging population.
If there was a disease that diminished, say, people of working age, our collective panic would be sufficient to put civilisation into a collective tailspin.
This is why you cant ‘lose’ swathes of people just like that. It panics the rest. They are the ones who make ‘civilisation’ function–but it is very very fragile. We are interlocked with one another.
The heart surgeon could not function without the garbage collector because the wastes of our society would make his job impossible.
Wolf the MOREON Richter stated that if we had policies that stopped population growth the economy would be just fine.
I mentioned Japan and China then reference a Yale Uni study that stated population growth is responsible for 1/3 of economic growth … he deleted the comment and refused to engage (deleting all other comments)…
Because he is a MOREON.
Anyway … yes you are correct — if we reduced population BAU would implode.
Gosh, Feddy wrote something vaguely sensible! Well done.
You saw this in a dream (world)?
It’s even more silly than believing we can all be organic farmers when BAU collapses hahahaha
When BAU ends … this is where 8B people go
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FN68-n_JK-8/UmfrnLi-N0I/AAAAAAAAAko/kFOORZSIXUU/s1600/Dig_Grave_NB.jpg
The UK is one of those (densely populated) countries where about 90% of those aged 18+ have been double-vaxxed (I cannot write ‘fully’ vaxxed any more, for they are not). Various peer-reviewed papers suggest that for the mRNA vaxxes at least, they are wrapped in PEG, which allows the vax molecules to enter the brain and cause Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (folding of proteins in a way that renders them useless, and spreads from one protein to another). Providing food for the population is unlikely to be a long-term problem if 90%+ of the population come down with C-J disease over the next few years. That is one of the many issues caused by the vaxxes. There will be no winners in the cities. Maybe no winners.
When I read your wonderful story … I picture you doing this …
https://64.media.tumblr.com/613cdfe6819b2dc251fb387a09b1f54c/2f89828e08e3fdb0-3b/s500x750/30b469bf38a67e4e80c86c7161b95120a1a10087.gifv
Reality Check: https://www.quora.com/What-would-the-world-be-like-if-society-collapsed
Of course they have plans!
400 private jets flew to the latest conference… where they discussed the plan for reducing the amount of fossil fuels we are burning!!!
Oh look I found a photo… of…
https://tpstreelopping.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/TreeServices_Brisbane.jpeg
I’m not going to wield a hoe for any “city people”, sorry.
This is ACTUALLY occurring here in South Florida!
They was a local TV news story that was titled “Adopt a Homeless Person”!
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NewsWorldAmericas
‘Adopt-a-homeless’ troll becomes formal proposal as Miami considers paying residents to take people off the streets
City Commission resolution to be voted on directs the city manager to review funding the program
Gov. Newsom signs laws aimed at homeless crisis
What started as the apparent trolling of activists against a crackdown on homeless camps in Miami has become a formal proposal to be considered at the next city commission meeting.
Protesters have been demonstrating against a proposed city ordinance that would make homeless encampments in Miami illegal.
Dozens turned up to the previous meeting with placards declaring “housing is a human right”, “homelessness is a choice of those who govern” and “we are humans, we are not trash”.
As speakers said the hearing was talking about homeless people like they were animals, Miami commissioner Joe Carollo chimed in to suggest a progressive “adopt-a-homeless” programme that would allow activists to welcome homeless people into their own homes or to set up tents in their yards or on sidewalks in front of their apartment buildings.
“Since we’re all bad people up here and we don’t care,” began Mr Carollo sarcastically, as shown in video of the meeting.
“I’d like to create a new programme today, for all of you here that I’m sure, many of you here are going jump right up and stand in line to be the first to help. And that’s the adopt-a-homeless programme.”
Mr Carollo said under the initiative everyone against making homeless camps illegal could adopt one of their own to be humane and help them in their next step in life.
As he asked for a list of those who would welcome the homeless into their homes for “all the care, the love, the humane treatment that they want”, the assembled crowd erupted in jeers, shouting and boos.
“Well, well, well, well, well, you know this is wonderful. You come here demanding rights, but then when we say something to you that you don’t like then my God, we don’t have rights, you want anarchy then right, just like you have in the streets now,” Mr Carollo said.
“I’m sick of this hypocrisy,” he added.
Following the contentious meeting, Mr Carollo told The Miami Herald that he’s making a serious proposal that could be a real solution similar to foster care for children, with the city providing funding to those who participate.
“If there are as many kind-hearted people out there as some claim to be out there, I would expect them to step up,” he told the outlet.
The vote on making homeless camps illegal was rescheduled for 28 October, on the same day in which Mr Carollo’s “adopt-a-homeless” programme is up for discussion.
The Miami City Commission meeting agenda lists a resolution directing the city manager to review grants from the Miami-Dade homeless trust for the “adopt-a-homeless person assistance program”.
“To provide aid to homeowners in the city that are willing to assist the local homeless population by welcoming a homeless individual into their home,” the resolution says.
“To live with them by providing a bed and daily essentials such as food, water, electricity and any other necessities as deemed appropriate.”
i would be ok with that
as long as nobody asked me to take in eddy
This was the system in New England for hundreds of years. The town would auction off the poor and homeless to the lowest bidder for a year of keeping.
Don’t give up, even if you get hammered here. You seem to be nosing in the right direction. “Larger scale farms” is probably a red flag. But I’m still puzzled that the supermarkets have as much still “affordable” produce as they do.
I’ve learned to delegate climate action to a much lower place than previously, but if it makes some people consider living on less, ,I’m not sure that can’t be used to advantage.
We’re generally wasting time talking so much and doing so little.
Central governments seem to be a HUGE part of our problems. We might do better with 90% less of it too. It and the MSM may be cluttering up so much space that we can’t see what small-scale, sensible things are being done and could be done better.
Peer Review is common in my business. It ensures you don’t peer too far forward nor too far left or right.
Breakthroughs/eureka moments fail peer review; especially if you don’t belong to the club. Too many reputations on the line.
Hence your work fails to be recognised by the ‘Club’ Gail.
Continental drift was a recent example’
‘Furthermore, Wegener was treated less seriously because he was not a geologist.’
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continental_drift
(Warning; Wiki could change this ‘truth’ at any time).
This is often referred to as the Overton Window: Permitted subjects to discuss or peer review for that matter
an excellent presentation Gail, thank you.
all frightening stuff, but nothing OFW’ers haven’t been frightening themselves with for years. Around 2012-ish, I forecast mid 2020s, which seems on course at the moment.
Seems to me that the biggest and most immediate danger we face, is a point you touch on, but don’t accentuate enough, that democracy (as we currently know it) can only exist so long as current levels of (cheap)energy remain available to us.
That is borne out by the fact that democratic systems of government arose in tandem with the rise of fossil fuel output.
‘Democracy’ was forced on the powers that be, by the need for ever increasing numbers of workers to run factories and produce goods.
Agricultural workers existed at a subsistence level, so could be held down by landowners who controlled the supply of basic energy (food)
Factory and mine workers became one step removed from the food control supply chain. They bought food (energy) that was produced by someone else. Pre-industrial farmworkers didn’t enjoy that privelege.
That is the hallmark of all ‘developed’ nations. The removal of workers from food production.
Serfdom and factories didn’t work together (though the very early industrialists tried it). Instead the workers demanded a say in the way their country was run. Without workers, factories/mines would close and the industrial treadmill would cease to run. So they grudgingly got the vote. Even women–eventually.
**********
Fast forward to now.
We know nothing but our present lifestyle, and demand that it continues.
But it cannot continue, but we hear promises that it can. And all this energy shortage/ climate change stuff is a hoax.
So–being collectively stupid, we use our ‘democratic rights’ to vote for the idiot who promises ‘infinite growth’—but only if we give him the necessary powers to bring it about.
So we vote for the dictator who proceeds to use energy depletion as an excuse to destroy our short lived democracy.
His premise being, of course, that our resource problems are the fault of ‘others’. (I hope this is sounding familiar?) He must use ‘extra-ordinary measures’.
2016/20 was just a foretaste of what the future holds. Wait till panic really sets in. (2024 anyone?)
This is why, as we head over the Seneca cliff, increasingly violent conflict will be inevitable. (it is in process now) The vast majority of us remain in denial…and will be ready to fight to preserve our cherished lifestyle, certain that a ‘great leader’ will restore what is ‘rightfully ours’.. (as opposed to those strange oriental people who live 10,000 miles away)
This will bring about the final destruction of increasingly limited energy sources
I would disagree that a republic can not exist without fossil fuels. I do agree that an undisciplined welfare state with unlimited money for massively obese professors of gender studies at Rutgers can not exist without fossil fuels.
Haha!
nations might call themselves a ‘republic’ without the trappings of ‘democracy’. Rome was such, or called itself so. It was not a democracy because it relied on slave labour for surplus energy. Ancient Greece was the same.
Unless I’ve missed a trick somewhere, a democracy cannot exist without cheap surplus energy available to everyone on an approximately equal footing.
Few countries measure up to that. The USA certainly doesn’t.
Problem with ‘welfare states’ is that welfare is seen as unlimited, whereas the means to support welfare is limited. Which is why you get silly ‘jobs’, or non jobs as i call them
Most can’t accept that.
Could you imagine the good professor wielding a hoe?
The Roman Republic lasted a thousand years. Unfortunately, we will never duplicate it in our era. We no longer have a moral hardworking people. We are full of thieves.
Well said.
The endgame is kinda fuzzy to me. There might be a lot of inertia in a global self organizing system, that isn’t quite clear to us presently.
What I am waiting for is this to turn all red
https://tradingeconomics.com/matrix
2024 seems quite spot on for the year when banks go Snap, Crackle and POP.
Looking at the level of debt (still ways to go to reach japanese debt levels for everyone) and the general optimism in our system, 2022 seems a bit too soon for me. But 2024 seems about right.
The normalcy bias people have is, nothing short of amazing. Even though the ecosystem is crumbling before their eyes, china is coming down fast and energy and raw material shortages and empty shelves are present. Yet people plan for vacations, buying second homes, taking on new mortgages and just continuing life as ever becore. Because surely all of this is just a brief glitch. And shortly this downturn will be over..
I’m not sure if people are actully equipped at all, to regard our current situation as permanent, and worsening fast. It seems like their operating system doesn’t allow such information to be processed. Try to communicate, and zip, zero, nada. Blanc stares. If this is actually the case, that the general human information processing system doesn’t allow for this kind of information to be processed, then the global economy will have a lot of inertia, before it goes in to its final collapse mode.. so yup.. 2024
You know when the world trade towers were coming down people panicked and spent a lot of time shutting down their computers instead of getting out of the building
~2024-27 = very dark threshold indeed !
Japan is always pointed to as the The USA having more room for more debt but the two GDPs are totally different one still largely productive in nature and the other largely financial in nature. We print more money, inflation runs rampant so the financial transaction amounts go up. As each of those financial transactions is counted in GDP GDP goes up. This why debt to GDP is a bogus metric. Debt inflates GDP
Maybe that’s how the self-organizing system works: a great deal of inertia slows down response in a way that gives momentum a chance to grow elsewhere to a critical point. The momentum forces would be some of us here, and we shouldn’t worry, agonize or try to push the case. Just do what we can that also feels healthy for us. I don’t see how the self-organizing system won’t somehow “pick up” on what the momentum forces are up to.
First thing I did was email this to my daughter.
Thanks!
One of the attendees at the conference wanted his Grandson to see it. I told him an Mp4 video is up, which can be viewed. The talk was in person, with a few Zoom participants. This was a recording over Zoom.
Great work, Gail. I’ve followed you for years. Smart citizens reading this article need to link it on blogs. NetZero, Cop26, and the Green New Deal are politician obfuscations of reality. We have a severe problem of depleting resources and rising population. If we can’t increase the available resources then politicians will eventually reduce the number of resource users. Is that the reason for the covid ‘vaccines’?
dont kick off covid again
no one is trying to bump you off to reduce global population
theres much serious stuff going on
Yes indeed.. so many children getting maimed and killed by Pfizer now that it’s approved for the little uns…
These are very exciting times for parents… with all this jabbing and stabbing going on … injecting a completely useless and dangerous substance…
Marching little Jimmy and little Jenny off to Mengele for the Clot Shot…. then some of them come home busted and smashed to bits… or in a body bag!!!
https://image.made-in-china.com/2f0j00azWfTKwSODcE/Cadaver-Bag-Corpse-Bag-Dead-Body-Bag-for-Medical-Products-for-Dead-Bodies.jpg
i think thats the bag you have to blow into when the police pull you over
Great article, thanks; was re-shocked again somewhat by the large natgas regional price differences (slides #15-16). Moreover lets watch the important slide #17 evolving – it will likely reveal more trends in the near future..
In other news and developments:
– France proclaims strong recommitting towards nuclear power (again)
– haven’t followed Jancovici in some time but his updated ~8months old presentation includes nice gem where he notices the lock down induced curbing of overall production rhyming nicely with the needed trend for achieving max ~2-3C degree climate warming scenario – coincidence (live test).. ?
– the great Surplus commentariat produced interesting study to our present world situation, where regular poster mentioned (~sad~) personal story as to offering his son’s family the funds for establishing well equipped regenAG homestead, they declined preferring townies (health_Doc & edu_Prof) lifestyles and jobs instead..
With the fertilizer plants in Europe shut down due to the high NG prices is there enough NG fertilizer manufacturing capacity in the USA to supply the difference? It must be more cost/energy efficient to ship fertilizer than LNG. While the last bit of the permian outputs anyway.
Thanks for the new post!
There are companies out there such as Walmart who are now hoarding supplies because they fear what will happen when everything breaks. The problem is that when everything finally breaks, no one will have any money to buy those items and the money could be worthless.
access to money is certainly going to be a problem
i keep some cash available–but what use will notes be if no one has any small change, more and more i find myself swiping to pay for stuff–years ago i swore i would never do that–but i do.
I’m always scrambling around to find a pound coin for a supermarket trolley
My guess is acess to money is going to be a lot more difficult for uninjected than injected quite soon. Access to money may not be the problem but having the privilege of spending it. We are being weaned onto that idea. Some of the younger folk already believe that previous spending constitutes crime.
Italy has had a lot of currency problems in its history. When my husband was young, change might be made by giving people low-cost items like candy. The main paper of Bologna is called “Il Resto del Carlino” because it was given away as change (“il resto”) from a “carlino” (a currency unit from the time of the Papal States).
Then there are IOUs which can also become a kind of currency, like a check that is signed over to a third party.
People are generally very creative in this space.
In the US I haven’t come across that cart “deposit” system, but they have it in Italy. You could obtain a coin-sized token to put on your keychain if you were habitually short of change. Sometimes these were given away as promotional “gadgets”.
https://www.etsy.com/search?q=trolley%20tokens
Walmart might be able to store three months worth of stuff but the shortage will last forever.
when people figure out the shortage is permanent, walmart’s storage won’t last 3 hours
you put a smile on my face
norm…. good to see that you have survived your latest booster… they are coming Fast and Furious now aren’t they!!!
Hospital Saint Vincent in Antwerp, Belgium — 100% of the patients in the ICU unit are inoculated
https://youtu.be/J012FQZ-YK0
‘DELTA’ DRIVEN BY VAXXED IN NEW STUDY
We were told it was a pandemic of the unvaccinated. Now, new science has revealed a shocking truth.
https://thehighwire.com/videos/delta-driven-by-vaxxed-in-new-study/
😀
he’s awake!!!!!!!!
the covid scrabble bag is open for excesses of wit and repartee.
oops–forgot to point out the moth larvae have eaten a hole in the bottom of it during the night.
nothing left
notice how norm ignores the great white shark in the room
https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-VNZmRjUnz7s/VSLiCl–r3I/AAAAAAAAQW0/ydVMOyKZPW4/s1600/Shark%2B8.gif
Hey Fast – here’s a little-known fact – guess what else requires minus-70 and minus-20 storage and in-the-box seclusion from light? Nah, they wouldn’t, would they? Hint – used in chemo-therapy and still on the market for acne.
Thank you for the new post.